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The top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023 in Morgan Stanley's eyes: about corporate earnings, global recession, China and India, and the rise of Saudi Arabia

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07:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023 in Morgan Stanley's eyes: about corporate earnings, global recession, China and India, and the rise of Saudi Arabia","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102521229","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利认为，在2023年欧美公司利润承压，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，印度、沙特的发展等将成为股市主题。在过去的2022年，美联储暴力加息，俄乌冲突等多方力量共同作用持续影响市场。美股三大股指均创下","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley believes that in 2023, the profits of European and American companies will be under pressure, the optimistic prospects for the Chinese and Asian economies, and the development of India and Saudi Arabia will become the themes of the stock market. In the past 2022, the violent rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other forces have continued to affect the market. The three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded their worst annual performance since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Heading into 2023, with the prospect of weaker demand from a slowing global economy, investors are beginning to wonder what themes other than the Federal Reserve will dominate markets this year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's analysis team recently summarized the top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023, including:<b>Profit margins of European and American companies are under pressure, from stagflation to recession, optimistic prospects for Chinese and Asian economies, ESG ratings drive company valuations, the next round of IPOs and capital outflows from the secondary market, the earth reduces carbon emissions, the development of India and Saudi Arabia, The era of multiple income earners brought by ChatGPT and what to do about obesity, etc.</b></p><p><b>Theme 1: The Challenge of Profit Margins of European and American Companies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the company's costs cannot fall and its bargaining power will decline in 2023.<b>As a result, earnings are affected and profit margins are under pressure</b>。 From the American perspective,<b>Earnings for the S&P 500 will be under tremendous pressure this year and face a \"earnings cliff\"</b>：</p><p>We believe that when the growth rate of costs exceeds the growth rate of sales, the company's profit growth will be severely hit, and the operating leverage coefficient will be negative. Considering that (1) the job market in some industries is still hot and labor shortages are suffering, wage costs may remain high (2) inventories filled at higher prices amid insufficient supply have led to overinventory, this The phenomenon may become more severe in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ee758835f7a66189d9b772716989f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Due to the sharp decline in profit margins,<b>Morgan Stanley believes European stocks may fall 10% this year</b>：</p><p>Our indicators that monitor margins in Europe show margin contraction of more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, comparable to what was seen during the global financial crisis. Higher wages, still high inflation, slowing terminal demand and declining pricing power will all lead to our expected negative operating leverage.<b>Theme 2: From stagflation to deflation and even recession</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed to inflation and rising interest rates as the main drivers of capital market and industry performance in 2022. Entering 2023, the focus will shift to lower inflation and slower growth:</p><p>Our U.S. economists expect inflation in the U.S. to fall significantly in the coming quarters, which will put downward pressure on bond yields in favor of defensive stocks and GARP stocks. Morgan Stanley believes that inventory will face dual challenges. On the one hand, the bottleneck problem in the supply chain has basically disappeared, while on the other hand, the demand side, especially the demand for goods, is slowing down:</p><p>Supply chain problems have disappeared in most industries, and U.S. imports of goods are rising sharply. Since the financial crisis, the ratio of inventory to sales for U.S. companies has been rising and is now at its highest level since 1990. We think many companies are using discounts to solve this problem.<b>Theme 3: Optimistic prospects for China and Asia's economies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that unlike Western economies, which will slow down further in 2023,<b>With the continuous optimization of policies, the economic development prospects of China and Asia will be more optimistic and usher in recovery</b>：</p><p>Combined with our expected weakness in the US dollar, it should stimulate investor interest in assets in Asia, the Middle East and China (including fixed income and equities). China's market and emerging markets may usher in a rebound.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a909a6cabcf3d4a1cd6ec33a31cbd6a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Topic 4: ESG rating drives alpha</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that ESG ratings in 2023 will become a key focus for investors looking for alphas that can generate alpha and affect the company's future. Morgan Stanley explained:</p><p>By analyzing 90 stocks worldwide, our analysts believe that as long as one ESG indicator has a significant improvement, it will have a positive impact on its finances and valuation. We believe ESG ratings provide a better measure of the future of a stock than traditional ratings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c9ce45f9093561c77630ee06eed714\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Theme 5: Helping the planet reduce carbon emissions</b></p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, companies that can provide sustainable development technologies for different industries in the future will become promoters of social development:</p><p>Our analysts have listed more than 50 companies that have changed the \"rules of the game\" of the industry and continued to advance sustainability technologies. 500 billion dollars of capital is scrambling to break the current stalled status quo of reducing carbon emissions.<b>Topic 6: The next round of IPOs and capital outflows from the secondary market</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley said that it is now in a period when unicorn companies need to refinance, and funds may flow out of the secondary market to support investment:</p><p>In the past 15 years, only 3% of the 1,420 companies have IPOs in the downward cycle; More than 50% of companies continue to IPO or be acquired at higher valuations in the future. If the next round of IPOs happens, it will most likely happen in mid-2023 for most emerging unicorns. History suggests that companies that raised funds in 2021 will have their next funding round around the second quarter of 2023, followed by IPOs in the following 9-12 months.<b>Theme 7: A Decade in India</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that in the next 10 years,<b>India may become the third largest economy and stock market in the world</b>：</p><p>We believe that India already has what it takes to achieve economic prosperity, driven by offshoring, manufacturing investment, energy transition and the country's advanced digital infrastructure. These drivers will make it the third largest economy and stock market in the world within a decade.<b>Theme 8: Saudi Arabia will rise rapidly</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley points out,<b>Saudi Arabia's \"Vision 2030\" announced in 2016 has gained tremendous momentum in 2022, and the momentum is expected to extend into the next decade</b>：</p><p>To achieve Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has launched more than $1 trillion worth of projects aimed at transforming the country into an economic powerhouse. We estimate that Saudi Arabia may spend about $900 billion by 2030 (compared with an estimated $50 billion so far). We believe contractors in South Korea and India, as well as the luxury goods sector, stand to benefit.<b>Theme 9: The Era of Multiple Incomes</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed out that with the rapid iteration and development of ChatGPT and other generative artificial intelligence, the question is beginning to arise: which jobs will be replaced in the future. In the medium and long term,<b>The work of the future requires greater flexibility</b>：</p><p>We believe that the pursuit of work has now begun to shift to the search for multiple sources of income. This is creating a large and growing demographic whose marginal time will be better spent on different jobs generating multiple income streams, and Gen Z people are leading the shift in this paradigm.<b>Topic 10: Obesity x Social Media</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that Wegovy (obesity drug), Ozempic (hypoglycemic drug) and semaglutide (weight loss drug) are being heavily mentioned in TikTok short-sighted videos and comments, and will bring about a series of treatment areas such as obesity. rise:</p><p>We believe that the result of too much discussion of obesity is (1) knowledge of drugs, thereby making (2) the possibility of an exponential spread of demand for drugs in the future. We believe that the global sales of obesity drugs can reach more than 50 billion US dollars in 2030, which will make the expenditure on obesity rise to the top 12 in the global treatment field.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3c5aaf95bc7b7b1ed0f240500ad6a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023 in Morgan Stanley's eyes: about corporate earnings, global recession, China and India, and the rise of Saudi Arabia</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023 in Morgan Stanley's eyes: about corporate earnings, global recession, China and India, and the rise of Saudi Arabia\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-17 07:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley believes that in 2023, the profits of European and American companies will be under pressure, the optimistic prospects for the Chinese and Asian economies, and the development of India and Saudi Arabia will become the themes of the stock market. In the past 2022, the violent rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other forces have continued to affect the market. The three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded their worst annual performance since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Heading into 2023, with the prospect of weaker demand from a slowing global economy, investors are beginning to wonder what themes other than the Federal Reserve will dominate markets this year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's analysis team recently summarized the top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023, including:<b>Profit margins of European and American companies are under pressure, from stagflation to recession, optimistic prospects for Chinese and Asian economies, ESG ratings drive company valuations, the next round of IPOs and capital outflows from the secondary market, the earth reduces carbon emissions, the development of India and Saudi Arabia, The era of multiple income earners brought by ChatGPT and what to do about obesity, etc.</b></p><p><b>Theme 1: The Challenge of Profit Margins of European and American Companies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the company's costs cannot fall and its bargaining power will decline in 2023.<b>As a result, earnings are affected and profit margins are under pressure</b>。 From the American perspective,<b>Earnings for the S&P 500 will be under tremendous pressure this year and face a \"earnings cliff\"</b>：</p><p>We believe that when the growth rate of costs exceeds the growth rate of sales, the company's profit growth will be severely hit, and the operating leverage coefficient will be negative. Considering that (1) the job market in some industries is still hot and labor shortages are suffering, wage costs may remain high (2) inventories filled at higher prices amid insufficient supply have led to overinventory, this The phenomenon may become more severe in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ee758835f7a66189d9b772716989f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Due to the sharp decline in profit margins,<b>Morgan Stanley believes European stocks may fall 10% this year</b>：</p><p>Our indicators that monitor margins in Europe show margin contraction of more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, comparable to what was seen during the global financial crisis. Higher wages, still high inflation, slowing terminal demand and declining pricing power will all lead to our expected negative operating leverage.<b>Theme 2: From stagflation to deflation and even recession</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed to inflation and rising interest rates as the main drivers of capital market and industry performance in 2022. Entering 2023, the focus will shift to lower inflation and slower growth:</p><p>Our U.S. economists expect inflation in the U.S. to fall significantly in the coming quarters, which will put downward pressure on bond yields in favor of defensive stocks and GARP stocks. Morgan Stanley believes that inventory will face dual challenges. On the one hand, the bottleneck problem in the supply chain has basically disappeared, while on the other hand, the demand side, especially the demand for goods, is slowing down:</p><p>Supply chain problems have disappeared in most industries, and U.S. imports of goods are rising sharply. Since the financial crisis, the ratio of inventory to sales for U.S. companies has been rising and is now at its highest level since 1990. We think many companies are using discounts to solve this problem.<b>Theme 3: Optimistic prospects for China and Asia's economies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that unlike Western economies, which will slow down further in 2023,<b>With the continuous optimization of policies, the economic development prospects of China and Asia will be more optimistic and usher in recovery</b>：</p><p>Combined with our expected weakness in the US dollar, it should stimulate investor interest in assets in Asia, the Middle East and China (including fixed income and equities). China's market and emerging markets may usher in a rebound.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a909a6cabcf3d4a1cd6ec33a31cbd6a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Topic 4: ESG rating drives alpha</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that ESG ratings in 2023 will become a key focus for investors looking for alphas that can generate alpha and affect the company's future. Morgan Stanley explained:</p><p>By analyzing 90 stocks worldwide, our analysts believe that as long as one ESG indicator has a significant improvement, it will have a positive impact on its finances and valuation. We believe ESG ratings provide a better measure of the future of a stock than traditional ratings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c9ce45f9093561c77630ee06eed714\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Theme 5: Helping the planet reduce carbon emissions</b></p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, companies that can provide sustainable development technologies for different industries in the future will become promoters of social development:</p><p>Our analysts have listed more than 50 companies that have changed the \"rules of the game\" of the industry and continued to advance sustainability technologies. 500 billion dollars of capital is scrambling to break the current stalled status quo of reducing carbon emissions.<b>Topic 6: The next round of IPOs and capital outflows from the secondary market</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley said that it is now in a period when unicorn companies need to refinance, and funds may flow out of the secondary market to support investment:</p><p>In the past 15 years, only 3% of the 1,420 companies have IPOs in the downward cycle; More than 50% of companies continue to IPO or be acquired at higher valuations in the future. If the next round of IPOs happens, it will most likely happen in mid-2023 for most emerging unicorns. History suggests that companies that raised funds in 2021 will have their next funding round around the second quarter of 2023, followed by IPOs in the following 9-12 months.<b>Theme 7: A Decade in India</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that in the next 10 years,<b>India may become the third largest economy and stock market in the world</b>：</p><p>We believe that India already has what it takes to achieve economic prosperity, driven by offshoring, manufacturing investment, energy transition and the country's advanced digital infrastructure. These drivers will make it the third largest economy and stock market in the world within a decade.<b>Theme 8: Saudi Arabia will rise rapidly</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley points out,<b>Saudi Arabia's \"Vision 2030\" announced in 2016 has gained tremendous momentum in 2022, and the momentum is expected to extend into the next decade</b>：</p><p>To achieve Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has launched more than $1 trillion worth of projects aimed at transforming the country into an economic powerhouse. We estimate that Saudi Arabia may spend about $900 billion by 2030 (compared with an estimated $50 billion so far). We believe contractors in South Korea and India, as well as the luxury goods sector, stand to benefit.<b>Theme 9: The Era of Multiple Incomes</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed out that with the rapid iteration and development of ChatGPT and other generative artificial intelligence, the question is beginning to arise: which jobs will be replaced in the future. In the medium and long term,<b>The work of the future requires greater flexibility</b>：</p><p>We believe that the pursuit of work has now begun to shift to the search for multiple sources of income. This is creating a large and growing demographic whose marginal time will be better spent on different jobs generating multiple income streams, and Gen Z people are leading the shift in this paradigm.<b>Topic 10: Obesity x Social Media</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that Wegovy (obesity drug), Ozempic (hypoglycemic drug) and semaglutide (weight loss drug) are being heavily mentioned in TikTok short-sighted videos and comments, and will bring about a series of treatment areas such as obesity. rise:</p><p>We believe that the result of too much discussion of obesity is (1) knowledge of drugs, thereby making (2) the possibility of an exponential spread of demand for drugs in the future. We believe that the global sales of obesity drugs can reach more than 50 billion US dollars in 2030, which will make the expenditure on obesity rise to the top 12 in the global treatment field.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3c5aaf95bc7b7b1ed0f240500ad6a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679983\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679983","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102521229","content_text":"摩根士丹利认为，在2023年欧美公司利润承压，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，印度、沙特的发展等将成为股市主题。在过去的2022年，美联储暴力加息，俄乌冲突等多方力量共同作用持续影响市场。美股三大股指均创下2008年金融危机以来的最差年度表现。进入2023年，在全球经济放缓需求走弱的前景下，投资者开始思考，除了美联储以外，还有哪些主题将主导今年的市场。摩根士丹利分析团队最新总结了2023年全球股市的十大主题，包括：欧美公司利润率承压，从滞涨到衰退，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，ESG的评级驱动公司估值，下轮IPO及资金从二级市场流出，地球减少碳排放，印度、沙特的发展，ChatGPT带来的多种收入者时代以及肥胖症该怎么办等。主题一：欧美公司利润率的挑战摩根士丹利认为2023年公司的成本无法下降且议价能力下降，导致盈利受到影响，利润率承压。从美国来看，今年标普500的盈利将面临巨大压力，并面临“盈利悬崖”：我们认为，当成本的增速超过销售的增速时，公司盈利增长就会受到剧烈打击，出现经营杠杆系数为负的情况。考虑到（1）某些行业的就业市场依旧火爆，劳动力短缺的情况，工资成本或将维持在高位（2）在供应不足的情况下以较高价格填补的库存导致了库存过剩的情况，这种现象在2023年可能更加严重。因利润率大幅下降，摩根士丹利认为今年欧洲股市或将下跌10%：我们监控欧洲利润率的指标显示，未来12个月的利润率收缩将超过200个基点，与全球金融危机期间的情况相当。更高的工资，仍处高位的通胀、终端需求的放缓和定价能力的下降，都会导致我们预期的经营杠杆系数为负的情况。主题二：从滞胀到通缩甚至衰退摩根士丹利指出，通胀和不断攀升的利率是2022年资本市场和行业表现的主要驱动力。进入2023年，重点将转移到较低的通胀及较慢的增长：我们的美国经济学家预计，美国的通胀率将在未来几个季度大幅下降，这将给债券收益率带来下行压力，有利于防御性股票和GARP股票。摩根士丹利认为，库存将面临双重挑战，一方面供应链的瓶颈问题已基本消失，而另一方面需求端，特别是对货物的需求，正在放缓：大多数行业的供应链问题已经消失，美国的货物进口量正急剧上升。自金融危机以来，美国公司的库存与销售的比例一直在上升，现在正处于1990年以来的最高水平。我们认为许多公司正用打折来解决这个问题。主题三：中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景摩根士丹利认为，与西方经济体的发展将在2023年进一步放缓不同，随着不断优化的政策，中国及亚洲的经济发展前景将较为乐观，迎来复苏：叠加我们预期的美元疲软，应该会激发投资者们对亚洲、中东、中国资产（包括固定收益和股票）的兴趣。中国的市场及新兴市场的或将迎来反弹。主题四：ESG的评级驱动阿尔法摩根士丹利认为，2023年ESG的评级，将成为投资者寻找能够产生阿尔法和影响公司未来的一个关键焦点，摩根士丹利解释称：通过分析全球范围内的90只股票，我们分析师认为只要一个ESG指标有明显的改善，对其财务和估值都将产生积极影响。我们相信，与传统的评级相比，ESG评级能更好地衡量股票的未来。主题五： 为地球减少碳排放助力摩根士丹利分析称，未来可以为不同行业提供可持续发展技术的公司将成为社会发展的推动者：我们的分析师列出了超过50家改变了行业原本的 “游戏规则 ”，持续推进可持续发展技术的公司。5000亿美元的资本正在争先恐后地打破当下停止不前的减少碳排放现状。主题六：下轮IPO及资金从二级市场流出摩根士丹利称，当下正处于独角兽企业需要重新融资的时期，资金或将从二级市场流出，以支持投资：在过去的15年里，1420家公司中只有3%在下行周期进行了IPO；超过50%的公司都在未来继续进行IPO或以更高估值被收购。如果下一轮IPO会发生，那么对于大多数新晋的独角兽公司来说，最有可能在2023年年中发生。历史表明，在2021年进行融资的公司将在2023年第二季度左右进行下一轮融资，并在随后的9-12个月进行IPO。主题七：印度的十年摩根士丹利认为，在接下来的10年内，印度或成为世界第三大经济体和股票市场：我们认为，印度已经具备了在离岸外包、制造业投资、能源转型和国家先进的数字基础设施的推动下实现经济繁荣的条件。这些驱动力将使其在十年内成为世界第三大经济体和股票市场。主题八：沙特将快速崛起大摩指出，沙特2016年公布的 \"2030愿景 \"在2022年获得了巨大的前进动能，预计势头或将延伸到未来十年：为实现“2030愿景”沙特阿拉伯已经推出了价值超过1万亿美元的项目，旨在将该国转变为经济强国。我们估计，到2030年沙特或将支出约9000亿美元（而迄今为止 ，估计已花费500亿美元）。我们认为，韩国和印度的承包商以及奢侈品行业将受益。主题九：多种收入者时代摩根士丹利指出，随着ChatGPT和其他生成式人工智能的快速迭代和发展，开始引出一个问题：未来哪些工作将被取代。从中长期来看，未来的工作需要更大的灵活性：我们认为，现在对工作的追求已经开始转变为寻求多种收入来源。这正在创造一个庞大且不断增长的人群，他们的边际时间将被更好地用于不同的工作从而产生多种收入来源，Z世代的人正在引领这一模式的转变。主题十：肥胖症x社交媒体摩根士丹利认为，Wegovy（肥胖症用药）、Ozempic（降糖药）和semaglutide（减肥药物）正在TikTok短视视频及评论中被大量提及，将会带来针对肥胖症等一系列治疗领域的兴起：我们认为，对肥胖症过多讨论的结果是(1)对药物的了解，从而使得(2)对药物的需求有可能在未来出现指数级传播。我们相信全球针对肥胖症药物的销售额在2030年可以达到500亿美元以上，将使对肥胖症的支出上升到全球治疗领域支出的前12位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951073883,"gmtCreate":1673365716243,"gmtModify":1676538825292,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951073883","repostId":"1129242286","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129242286","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673360880,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129242286?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-10 22:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | Alibaba opened higher, Tesla rose more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129242286","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月10日周二，美股小幅低开，但随后拉升，截至发稿三大指数均转涨。美联储鲍威尔在今晚的讲话中表示，美联储的政策是有效的，我们的任务没有出错。阿里巴巴高开，涨约2%。杭州市委书记调研蚂蚁集团，杭州市人民","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, January 10, U.S. stocks experienced a slight open low, but then rose. As of press time, all three major indexes turned higher.<b>Fed Powell said in his speech tonight that the Fed's policies are effective and we have not gone wrong with our mission.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55213d1c864fbf260a9c22a95bbb2b0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Opened higher, up about 2%. Investigation by Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>, Hangzhou Municipal People's Government and Alibaba signed a comprehensive deepening strategic cooperation agreement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35609e447b1917b2057ddcbb64dada4d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>New car-making forces collectively rose at the beginning of the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 2% at the beginning of the session. It was reported that after announcing the price cut, Tesla China received 30,000 car orders within three days. But Tesla officials declined to comment. It is also reported that Tesla's electric vehicle factory in Austin, Texas will begin to expand in the coming weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3eeff30d0063f48d0f9768dd5ebdb72\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faraday Future fell more than 5% after receiving a notice from the Nasdaq exchange informing the company that it did not meet certain requirements for continued listing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit</a>After a 20% drop, Virgin Orbit admitted on social media that the first satellite launch from the UK failed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>It rose 7.1%. Despite the company's quarterly loss of about $393 million during the holiday season, it did not say it would file for bankruptcy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Downgraded Boeing's rating to hold from overweight, saying it lacks potential upside from current levels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>Fell slightly 1% amid reports that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Plans to abandon by 2025<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>Chip, switch to an in-house design.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>It fell more than 11% after the company lowered its performance guidance for 2023, which was lower than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | Alibaba opened higher, Tesla rose more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | Alibaba opened higher, Tesla rose more than 2%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-10 22:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, January 10, U.S. stocks experienced a slight open low, but then rose. As of press time, all three major indexes turned higher.<b>Fed Powell said in his speech tonight that the Fed's policies are effective and we have not gone wrong with our mission.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55213d1c864fbf260a9c22a95bbb2b0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Opened higher, up about 2%. Investigation by Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>, Hangzhou Municipal People's Government and Alibaba signed a comprehensive deepening strategic cooperation agreement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35609e447b1917b2057ddcbb64dada4d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>New car-making forces collectively rose at the beginning of the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 2% at the beginning of the session. It was reported that after announcing the price cut, Tesla China received 30,000 car orders within three days. But Tesla officials declined to comment. It is also reported that Tesla's electric vehicle factory in Austin, Texas will begin to expand in the coming weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3eeff30d0063f48d0f9768dd5ebdb72\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faraday Future fell more than 5% after receiving a notice from the Nasdaq exchange informing the company that it did not meet certain requirements for continued listing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit</a>After a 20% drop, Virgin Orbit admitted on social media that the first satellite launch from the UK failed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>It rose 7.1%. Despite the company's quarterly loss of about $393 million during the holiday season, it did not say it would file for bankruptcy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Downgraded Boeing's rating to hold from overweight, saying it lacks potential upside from current levels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>Fell slightly 1% amid reports that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Plans to abandon by 2025<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>Chip, switch to an in-house design.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>It fell more than 11% after the company lowered its performance guidance for 2023, which was lower than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129242286","content_text":"1月10日周二，美股小幅低开，但随后拉升，截至发稿三大指数均转涨。美联储鲍威尔在今晚的讲话中表示，美联储的政策是有效的，我们的任务没有出错。阿里巴巴高开，涨约2%。杭州市委书记调研蚂蚁集团，杭州市人民政府和阿里巴巴签订全面深化战略合作协议。造车新势力盘初集体走高，小鹏汽车涨超3%，理想汽车、蔚来涨2%。特斯拉盘初涨超2%，消息称在宣布降价后，特斯拉中国三天内获3万辆汽车订单。但特斯拉官方未予置评。另据报道，未来几周，特斯拉位于得克萨斯州奥斯汀的电动汽车工厂的规模将开始扩大。法拉第未来跌超5%，此前收到纳斯达克交易所的通知，告知公司不符合某些继续上市要求。维珍轨道大跌20%，维珍轨道在社交媒体承认，首次从英国发射卫星宣告失败。3B家居涨7.1%，尽管公司假日季出现了约3.93亿美元的季度亏损，但没有表示会申请破产。波音跌1.56%，摩根士丹利将波音的评级从增持下调至持有，称从当前水平看缺乏潜在的上升空间。博通微跌1%，有报道称苹果计划到2025年放弃博通芯片，改用内部设计。Illumina跌超11%，此前该公司下调2023年的业绩指引，且低于市场预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953083070,"gmtCreate":1673103706990,"gmtModify":1676538787044,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953083070","repostId":"1118862562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118862562","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673056273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118862562?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-07 09:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"FDA approves'most promising new drug to cure Alzheimer's","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118862562","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由百健和卫材研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai, lecanemab, the Alzheimer's drug used to slow cognitive decline, is a milestone in the decades-long search for a new treatment for Alzheimer's disease and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and leading cause of death in the United States.</b>On Friday, January 6, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accelerated the approval of monoclonal antibody therapies developed by Biogen and Eisai, which are still in clinical trials, to slow down cognitive decline. Alzheimer's drug lecanemab.</p><p>Eisai, which led the research and development of the new drug, set the price of the new drug at US $26,500 per year in the United States, and the trade name was Leqembi.</p><p>This new drug is the second drug for Alzheimer's disease that Biogen and Eisai have received early approval in less than two years.</p><p>Just at the end of last year, the Democratic Party of the U.S. House of Representatives released a report stating that the FDA \"inappropriately\" cooperated with Biogen, which developed its Alzheimer's treatment drug Aduhelm, before approving the drug in 2021. Not only did Aduhelm not clinically Improve symptoms significantly, and the FDA's approval process is also full of flaws.</p><p>The results of clinical trials announced by the FDA in November last year showed that lecanemab slowed down the cognitive decline of patients with mild impairment caused by Alzheimer's disease to a certain extent. The FDA's approval was also made accordingly, but this treatment There is also a risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p>If a new drug is expected to help patients more effectively than the drugs currently used clinically, the FDA will speed up the approval of the new drug. After approval, the new drug can be quickly introduced to the market. The two developing pharmaceutical companies of this drug applied for accelerated approval in July last year.</p><p>The FDA said in a statement:</p><p>Alzheimer's disease dramatically diminishes the living capacity of the sufferer and has devastating effects on their families. This treatment regimen is the latest therapy that targets and affects the condition, rather than just alleviating the symptoms of the disease. More than 6.5 million people in the United States suffer from Alzheimer's disease, which can irreversibly destroy patients' memory and thinking ability, and ultimately completely lose patients' execution ability.</p><p>The US Congress has just warned the FDA that the process of approving new drugs is full of flaws</p><p>At the end of December last year, the report of the U.S. House of Representatives said:</p><p>The FDA must act quickly to ensure that its review of pharmaceutical products for future Alzheimer's treatments does not lead to the same doubts about the integrity of the FDA review. House Oversight and Reform Committee Chairman Carolyn Maloney said:</p><p>I hope these findings will serve as a wake-up call for the FDA to reform its practices and call on members of Congress to take action and continue to monitor the pharmaceutical industry to ensure they don't let patients suffer. An FDA spokesperson said the agency is fully cooperating with the investigation:</p><p>One of our jobs is to interact frequently with pharmaceutical companies to ensure that we have enough information to inform our regulatory decisions. We will continue to do so because it is in the patient's best interest. That said, the agency has begun implementing reforms that are consistent with congressional recommendations. What is Lecanemab?</p><p>The latest FDA approved Lecanemab is a monoclonal antibody that targets a protein called amyloid that builds up in the brains of people with Alzheimer's disease. The antibody is administered IV every two weeks at a dose determined by the patient's body weight.</p><p>The FDA approval of lecanemab is based on the reduction in amyloid plaques observed in clinical trial participants receiving the treatment; The untreated participants, the placebo group, had no reduction in amyloid plaques.</p><p><b>The drug is the first to clearly show in recent studies that reducing amyloid provides clinical benefits to patients, although doctors say its effects are relatively modest and far from curative. Still, doctors say its approval is a milestone in the decades-long search for a new treatment for Alzheimer's and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and the leading cause of death in the United States.</b></p><p>Results from the clinical trial published in the New England Journal of Medicine, funded by Biogen and Eisai, found that people treated with lecanemab experienced a 27% slower rate of cognitive decline over 18 months compared to those who did not receive treatment.</p><p><b>Although lecanemab may slow cognitive decline to some extent, there are risks associated with this treatment.</b></p><p>Nearly 13% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced brain swelling, compared to about 2% of untreated patients. However, most of these symptoms are mild to moderate in severity, do not cause symptoms, and typically resolve within four months. About 3% of patients treated with lecanemab, though, had worse brain swelling, with symptoms including headaches, visual impairment and confusion.</p><p>Cerebral hemorrhage occurred in approximately 17% of patients treated with lecanemab compared to 9% of untreated patients, and the most common symptom associated with bleeding was dizziness.</p><p>Overall, 14% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced serious adverse reactions in clinical trials, compared with 11% of untreated patients.</p><p>The study's authors say longer clinical trials are needed to determine the efficacy and safety of lecanemab in patients with early-stage Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>The FDA said that the prescription information for lecanemab will include warnings about the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FDA approves'most promising new drug to cure Alzheimer's</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFDA approves'most promising new drug to cure Alzheimer's\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-07 09:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai, lecanemab, the Alzheimer's drug used to slow cognitive decline, is a milestone in the decades-long search for a new treatment for Alzheimer's disease and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and leading cause of death in the United States.</b>On Friday, January 6, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accelerated the approval of monoclonal antibody therapies developed by Biogen and Eisai, which are still in clinical trials, to slow down cognitive decline. Alzheimer's drug lecanemab.</p><p>Eisai, which led the research and development of the new drug, set the price of the new drug at US $26,500 per year in the United States, and the trade name was Leqembi.</p><p>This new drug is the second drug for Alzheimer's disease that Biogen and Eisai have received early approval in less than two years.</p><p>Just at the end of last year, the Democratic Party of the U.S. House of Representatives released a report stating that the FDA \"inappropriately\" cooperated with Biogen, which developed its Alzheimer's treatment drug Aduhelm, before approving the drug in 2021. Not only did Aduhelm not clinically Improve symptoms significantly, and the FDA's approval process is also full of flaws.</p><p>The results of clinical trials announced by the FDA in November last year showed that lecanemab slowed down the cognitive decline of patients with mild impairment caused by Alzheimer's disease to a certain extent. The FDA's approval was also made accordingly, but this treatment There is also a risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p>If a new drug is expected to help patients more effectively than the drugs currently used clinically, the FDA will speed up the approval of the new drug. After approval, the new drug can be quickly introduced to the market. The two developing pharmaceutical companies of this drug applied for accelerated approval in July last year.</p><p>The FDA said in a statement:</p><p>Alzheimer's disease dramatically diminishes the living capacity of the sufferer and has devastating effects on their families. This treatment regimen is the latest therapy that targets and affects the condition, rather than just alleviating the symptoms of the disease. More than 6.5 million people in the United States suffer from Alzheimer's disease, which can irreversibly destroy patients' memory and thinking ability, and ultimately completely lose patients' execution ability.</p><p>The US Congress has just warned the FDA that the process of approving new drugs is full of flaws</p><p>At the end of December last year, the report of the U.S. House of Representatives said:</p><p>The FDA must act quickly to ensure that its review of pharmaceutical products for future Alzheimer's treatments does not lead to the same doubts about the integrity of the FDA review. House Oversight and Reform Committee Chairman Carolyn Maloney said:</p><p>I hope these findings will serve as a wake-up call for the FDA to reform its practices and call on members of Congress to take action and continue to monitor the pharmaceutical industry to ensure they don't let patients suffer. An FDA spokesperson said the agency is fully cooperating with the investigation:</p><p>One of our jobs is to interact frequently with pharmaceutical companies to ensure that we have enough information to inform our regulatory decisions. We will continue to do so because it is in the patient's best interest. That said, the agency has begun implementing reforms that are consistent with congressional recommendations. What is Lecanemab?</p><p>The latest FDA approved Lecanemab is a monoclonal antibody that targets a protein called amyloid that builds up in the brains of people with Alzheimer's disease. The antibody is administered IV every two weeks at a dose determined by the patient's body weight.</p><p>The FDA approval of lecanemab is based on the reduction in amyloid plaques observed in clinical trial participants receiving the treatment; The untreated participants, the placebo group, had no reduction in amyloid plaques.</p><p><b>The drug is the first to clearly show in recent studies that reducing amyloid provides clinical benefits to patients, although doctors say its effects are relatively modest and far from curative. Still, doctors say its approval is a milestone in the decades-long search for a new treatment for Alzheimer's and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and the leading cause of death in the United States.</b></p><p>Results from the clinical trial published in the New England Journal of Medicine, funded by Biogen and Eisai, found that people treated with lecanemab experienced a 27% slower rate of cognitive decline over 18 months compared to those who did not receive treatment.</p><p><b>Although lecanemab may slow cognitive decline to some extent, there are risks associated with this treatment.</b></p><p>Nearly 13% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced brain swelling, compared to about 2% of untreated patients. However, most of these symptoms are mild to moderate in severity, do not cause symptoms, and typically resolve within four months. About 3% of patients treated with lecanemab, though, had worse brain swelling, with symptoms including headaches, visual impairment and confusion.</p><p>Cerebral hemorrhage occurred in approximately 17% of patients treated with lecanemab compared to 9% of untreated patients, and the most common symptom associated with bleeding was dizziness.</p><p>Overall, 14% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced serious adverse reactions in clinical trials, compared with 11% of untreated patients.</p><p>The study's authors say longer clinical trials are needed to determine the efficacy and safety of lecanemab in patients with early-stage Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>The FDA said that the prescription information for lecanemab will include warnings about the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679266\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb4be1ff4aaa40ac88564f80f173158e","relate_stocks":{"BIIB":"渤健公司"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679266","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118862562","content_text":"由百健和卫材研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开始发生转变。1月6日周五，美国食品和药品管理局（FDA）加速批准尚在临床试验中、由百健（Biogen）和卫材（Eisai）研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab。领导该新药研发的卫材在美国将这种新药的定价设定为每年26500美元，商品名定为Leqembi。这一新药是百健和卫材在不到两年的时间里获得早期批准的第二种治疗阿尔茨海默氏症的药物。就在去年底，美国众议院民主党发布一份报告称，FDA在2021年批准其阿尔茨海默氏症治疗药物Aduhelm之前与研发该药品的百健Biogen“不恰当地”合作，不仅Aduhelm在临床上没有明显改善症状，而且FDA在审批过程中也充满瑕疵。去年11月FDA公布的临床试验结果表明，lecanemab在一定程度上减缓了因阿尔茨海默氏病导致的轻度损伤患者的认知能力下降，FDA的批准也是据此做出的，但这种治疗也存在脑肿胀和出血的风险。如果一种新药有望比当前临床使用的药物更有效地帮助患者，FDA会加快批准新药，获批之后，新药就能迅速推向市场。这款药物的两个开发药厂在去年7月申请加速批准。FDA在一份声明中说：阿尔茨海默氏症极大地削弱了患者的生活能力，并对他们的家庭造成毁灭性的影响。这种治疗方案是针对和影响该病症的最新疗法，而不仅仅是缓解疾病的症状。美国有超过650万人患有阿尔茨海默氏症，该病症会不可逆地破坏患者的记忆力、思维能力，并最终令患者的执行力完全丧失。美国国会刚刚警告FDA批准新药过程充斥瑕疵去年12月底，美国众议院的报告称：FDA必须迅速采取行动，确保其审查未来阿尔茨海默病治疗的药品不会导致对FDA审查的完整性产生同样的怀疑。众议院监督和改革委员会主席Carolyn Maloney说：我希望这些发现能敲响警钟，要求FDA改革其做法，并呼吁国会议员采取行动，继续监督制药行业，以确保他们不会让患者蒙受损失。FDA发言人表示，该机构全力配合调查：我们的工作之一是经常与医药公司互动，以确保我们有足够的信息来为我们的监管决策提供信息。我们将继续这样做，因为这符合患者的最大利益。也就是说，该机构已经开始实施符合国会建议的改革。Lecanemab是什么？FDA最新批准的Lecanemab是一种单克隆抗体，靶向一种称为淀粉样蛋白的蛋白质，这种蛋白质在阿尔茨海默氏症患者的大脑中积聚。该抗体每两周静脉注射一次，剂量由患者体重决定。FDA批准lecanemab是基于在接受治疗的临床试验参与者中观察到的淀粉样斑块减少；未接受治疗的参与者，即安慰剂组，淀粉样斑块没有减少。该药物是第一个在最近的研究中明确表明减少淀粉样蛋白会给患者带来临床益处的药物，尽管医生说它的效果相对适度并且远非治愈。尽管如此，医生们表示，它的批准是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开始发生转变。发表在《新英格兰医学杂志》上的临床试验结果发现，与未接受治疗的人相比，接受lecanemab治疗的人在18个月内的认知能力下降速度减慢了27%，该研究由百健和卫材资助。尽管lecanemab可能会在一定程度上减缓认知能力下降，但这种治疗也存在风险。接受lecanemab治疗的患者中有近13%出现脑肿胀，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例约为2%。 然而，大多数这些症状的严重程度为轻度至中度，不会引起症状，并且通常会在四个月内得到解决。不过，接受lecanemab治疗的患者中约有3%的脑肿胀更严重，症状包括头痛、视力障碍和意识模糊。接受lecanemab治疗的患者中约有17%出现脑出血，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例为9%，与出血相关的最常见症状是头晕。总体而言，接受lecanemab治疗的患者中有14%在临床试验中出现严重不良反应，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例为11%。该研究的作者表示，需要更长时间的临床试验来确定lecanemab在早期阿尔茨海默病患者中的疗效和安全性。FDA则表示，lecanemab的处方信息将包括关于脑肿胀和出血风险的警告。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIIB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953089830,"gmtCreate":1673103643221,"gmtModify":1676538787030,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df15935fcd4975731e3a98dd79ee3803","width":"750","height":"1640"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953089830","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959513902,"gmtCreate":1673019964707,"gmtModify":1676538770880,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d68034699f9a1ee5674de029c86de391","width":"750","height":"1568"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959513902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950388650,"gmtCreate":1672673190271,"gmtModify":1676538718187,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950388650","repostId":"1137215289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137215289","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672629766,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137215289?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-02 11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137215289","media":"期货日报","summary":"有这样三位投资者，他们的投资生涯几乎横贯了整个20世纪，其中两人还沐浴过21世纪的曙光。他们经历了1929年的大崩盘，又经历了1987年的大恐慌以及1997年的下跌；他们三人加在一起，在熊市和牛市中拥","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>There are three investors whose investment careers have spanned almost the entire 20th century, and two of them have bathed in the dawn of the 21st century.</p><p>They experienced the Great Crash of 1929, the Great Panic of 1987 and the decline of 1997; Together, the three of them have more than 200 years of experience owning stocks in bear and bull markets.</p><p>These three investors are<b>Philip Carey, Philip Fisher, and Roy Newberg.</b></p><p>By 1997, Carey was 100 years old, Fisher was 90 years old, and Newberg was 94 years old. At that time, you can find them in their respective offices, and the colleagues at their desks may be their great-grandchildren.</p><p>Each of these three century-old men has written books, and Kairui is the author of Wisdom; Fisher is the author of How to Choose Growth Stocks and How to Get Rich by Investing in the Stock Market; Newberg is the author of Advice.</p><p>All four books have become immortal works in the investment world, enduring and new over time. They have experienced countless bear markets, big and small, and are very close to bear markets. Now, let's listen to their truth in bear markets.</p><p>Carrie lived to be 101 years old, born in the same year that the Dow Jones Index was launched (1884), and experienced 31 bull markets, 30 bear markets, 20 economic recessions, and the Great Depression in his life.</p><p>He graduated from Harvard University in 1917 and joined Harvard Business School. He flew British warplanes over France at the end of World War I. People were deeply impressed by his intelligence, kind smile and long-term investment performance.</p><p>In 1927, Carrie came to New York to join a company. This company manages a mutual fund, and investors bid $10 per share for this fund, while Kerry, an internal economist of the company, calculated that it was worth at most $1.</p><p>After the Great Crash of 1929, it topped out at less than $1 per share. Along with the panic and collapse of the market, Kerry survived. He remembers the 1929 experience most vividly. He believes that \"the Great Crash of 1929 is more exciting than horrible\".</p><p>Most economists are still bullish, firmly believing that the decline is only short-lived, and few people see any clouds on the horizon. But by 1932, a quarter of the workforce had lost their jobs. On the verge of despair, Kerry launched his mutual fund, the Vanguard Fund.</p><p>Fifty years later, the Vanguard Fund has made its holders wealthy, with a compound yield of up to 13% per year. When he left Vanguard Fund, he managed a private investment portfolio of $225 million himself. During Carrie's investing career, he was almost always bullish, despite \"underweighting\" some stocks amid sharp declines.</p><p>In 1987, the Dow fell 500 points in one day. On that day, he was giving a speech in Italy. He said, \"They want to know what will happen. I don't know myself. I still don't know.\"</p><p>Kerry believes he will not be more pessimistic than when the Dow was at 7,000 in 1997. \"I didn't do anything about it in my own portfolio,\" he said. \"If the stock price falls, so will the portfolio. I'm 100 years old and can fail at any time. If I fail at the bottom of the bear market, I will save a lot of inheritance tax.\"</p><p>Regarding Mr. Kairui's investment record,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Warren Buffett, the respected CEO of Wei Company, praised him for \"setting the best long-term investment record in the United States.\"</p><p>Mr. Kai Rui took the lead in advocating the concept of \"value investing\" in 1927. In the following year, he established the world's first mutual fund-Pioneer Fund. In more than half a century, the fund he managed made extraordinary achievements.</p><p>Mr. Kairui mainly invests in enterprises with continuous profit growth and dedicated management. His investment method is still adopted by countless professional investors.</p><p>Carrie always keeps things simple. He has established an excellent company, and his investment achievements are still the envy of the world today.</p><p><b>Kai Rui summarized the \"Twelve Codes\" of Speculation</b></p><p><b>1.</b>Hold no less than ten securities and cover at least five industries.</p><p><b>Two,</b>Re-evaluate each security held at least semi-annually.</p><p><b>Three,</b>Put at least more than half of your funds in securities that generate fixed income.</p><p><b>Four,</b>When analyzing any stock, list the Dividend yield as the least important consideration.</p><p><b>5.</b>Admit your losses quickly and don't rush to take profits.</p><p><b>VI.</b>Information on certain securities is not readily available or the time of publication is uncertain, and the investment funds in these securities must not exceed 25%.</p><p><b>VII.</b>For \"inside information\", we should avoid it like the plague.</p><p><b>8.</b>Be diligent in finding facts and never ask for advice.</p><p><b>9.</b>Ignore the rigid formulas for evaluating securities.</p><p><b>10.</b>When stock prices are high, interest rates are rising, and the economy is booming, at least half of the funds should be put in short-term bonds.</p><p><b>11.</b>Try not to borrow money unless the stock price is low, interest rates are falling or falling, and the economy is in recession.</p><p><b>XII.</b>Allocate an appropriate proportion of funds to buy shares and long-term stock options in companies with good prospects.</p><p>He said: \"The tenth rule recognizes the circular nature of stock market volatility and is also a compromise between the two schools of thought of long-term speculation. Some people think that long-term speculators should try to buy stocks when the short market is close to the bottom according to the long swing of the stock market, and then sell all their holdings when the long market is close to the high point, and put the money they get in short-term securities, waiting for another short market buying point.</p><p>Another group believes that sound common stocks should be bought and held for a long time, and only when the prospects of one stock deteriorate, they should be sold and buy other more promising stocks. The ideal plan seems to find a compromise between the two extremes. Although speculative investors mainly want to buy stocks that may increase in value, rather than be interested in the stock market trend itself, they cannot ignore the long-term trend of long and short markets for granted.</p><p>After the long market has developed to a considerable extent, once the foundation of monetary easing begins to be destroyed, speculators had better review their holdings and consider disposing of most of them. At this time, they must not be obsessed with the original purchase cost of securities. \"</p><p>Compared with Carey, Fisher, born in San Francisco in 1907, his parents were the youngest among many children in their families, and his father was a doctor. He was particularly close to his grandmother. As a child, Fisher knew about the existence of the stock market and the opportunities brought by stock price movements.</p><p>This is because when Fisher was in elementary school, he visited his grandmother one day after class. It happened that an uncle was talking with his grandmother about the future prosperity of industry and commerce and the possible impact on stocks.</p><p>Fisher said, \"A whole new world unfolded in front of my eyes.\" Although the two discussed for only 10 minutes, Fisher listened with relish. Before long, Fisher began buying and selling stocks. The 1920s was an era of U.S. stock frenzy, and Fisher also made a little money. However, his father was very unhappy about his buying and selling stocks, thinking it was just gambling.</p><p>In 1929, as his father said, Fisher was stuck at the bottom of his passion for \"gambling\". This one was later seen as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000900\">Modern Investment</a>One of the pioneers of the theory, the father of growth stock value investment strategies, the godfather investment guru, and one of the most respected and respected investment experts on Wall Street, in that year, he submitted an article \"The Worst Big Short Market Will Unfold\" article.</p><p>This is his most amazing stock market forecast, but unfortunately he is bearish and long. He said: \"I can't help but be confused by the charm of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some cheap stocks and objects worth investing in, because they haven't gone up yet.\"</p><p>He invested several thousand dollars into three stocks. These three stocks are all low P/E stocks, one is a locomotive company, the other is an advertising board company, and the other is a taxi company.</p><p>After the stock market crash, although Fisher predicted a plunge in radio stocks, his three stocks were not much better. By 1932, his losses were extremely heavy.</p><p>Although this experience convinced him that he should lighten his position in a bear market, he remained full in all the ups and downs for the next 60 years. After the age of 90, he is still an active manager with many big customers.</p><p>Visit companies in their portfolio at least twice a year. He prefers to own six to nine companies, but refuses to comment on what stocks he owns, because he thinks it is unfair for customers to disclose these stocks for free.</p><p>Only twice after 1929 did Fisher feel that another Great Recession was coming. In 1987, he issued a bear market alert in his Forbes column. In 1997, he said, I have a feeling that the road we are walking today is somewhere between 1927 and 1929.</p><p>\"Enough people are panicking, so we haven't reached the top yet, but when I hear talk about now being a new era, a highland of permanent prosperity, and some other baloney, I get upset. This is the same comment I heard from another Fisher after the Great Crash of 1929.\"</p><p><b>Fisher's ten non-principles for investors</b></p><p><b>1.</b>Don't buy companies in the startup stage.</p><p><b>Two,</b>Don't abandon a good stock just because it is not listed for trading.</p><p><b>Three,</b>Don't buy shares of a company just because you like the style of its annual report.</p><p><b>Four,</b>Just because a company's P/E ratio is high, don't mean that the future earnings growth has been roughly reflected in the price.</p><p><b>5.</b>Don't worry about every penny.</p><p><b>VI.</b>Don't overemphasize diversification.</p><p><b>VII.</b>Don't worry about buying stocks in the shadow of war.</p><p><b>8.</b>Don't forget your Gilbert and Sullivan.</p><p><b>9.</b>When buying really good growth stocks, in addition to considering price, don't forget the timing factor.</p><p><b>10.</b>Don't dance with the crowd.</p><p>Fisher said that stock investment sometimes inevitably requires luck in some places, but in the long run, good luck and bad luck will offset each other. If you want to succeed continuously, you must rely on skills and apply good principles. According to Fisher's principle framework, I believe that the future belongs to those who can discipline themselves and are willing to put in their efforts.</p><p>Newberg, who was born in the United States in 1903, also left Paris to come to Wall Street in 1929. He was the only person on Wall Street who lived through the Great Depression of 1929 and the stock market crash of 1987 at the same time.</p><p>When he first arrived on Wall Street, he began his life as a broker and trader. In March of that year, he bought his first stock, but he also shorted the stock. At that time, he was shorting the stock of American Broadcasting Corporation (RCA), which had a price of $574 before one share was divided into five shares, and there was no reason for it to overcorrect its stock price.</p><p>Newberg looked for older investors to find his explanation, but he didn't get an enlightening answer. People all say, \"We are entering an era of broadcasting\". Newberg had a premonition that once the fuelers made profits, the stock would collapse, and eventually the price of this stock reached $2.</p><p>Newberg, meanwhile, made a profit when he sold short. Five months later, when the Dow recovered half of its decline, financiers and political leaders declared it an anomaly and predicted that prosperity would come immediately. \"They were all wrong,\" Newberg later recalled.</p><p>Newberg broke even in this crash and subsequent results, with profits from short positions equal to his losses from long positions. Neuberg founded his own company in 1939. In 1950, he founded the low-commission \"Protector Fund\" and was the father of open-end funds in the United States.</p><p>Newberg is bullish \"95% of the time\" and only occasionally shorts. The same technique also happened in later investment years. \"I hedged my portfolio in the late 1972-1973,\" Newberg recalled. In 1987, \"I hedged my portfolio after a ridiculous price hike.\"</p><p>In 1997, after a ridiculous rally, \"I hedged again. At this point, I'm selling short stock futures, selling short<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>, short selling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>-The most popular drink in the world. \"</p><p>Newberg explained that Coca-Cola sales grew only 3% in 1996. \"I can't figure out why people are willing to pay 42 times P/E's price.\" But he added, \"I've been a fool on this so far. I should have realized that the whole world is addicted to Coca-Cola.\"</p><p><b>Newberg's Ten Principles of Investing</b></p><p><b>1. Understand yourself</b></p><p>The success of investors is based on existing knowledge and experience. You'd better invest professionally in areas you're familiar with. If you know little or don't analyze the company and its details at all, you'd better stay away from it.</p><p>You should also check that you are physically and mentally qualified before you actually become an investor. A good body is the foundation of your informed judgment, don't underestimate it.</p><p><b>2. Learn from successful investors</b></p><p>Even successful investors, many of whom have had a tough time towards the end of the decade. I have talked to many of them, and only a small number of them believe that they can still grasp the situation of the market in 1996 when the stock market rose again and again.</p><p><b>Third, \"Yangshi\" thinking</b></p><p>The influence of individual investors on a stock can sometimes make it fluctuate by 10 percentage points, but that is only a moment, usually a day, not more than a week. This market is neither a bull market nor a bear market.</p><p>I call such markets \"sheep markets\". Sometimes the flock was slaughtered, sometimes the wool was sheared off. Sometimes one can lucky escape and keep the fleece. The \"sheep market\" is somewhat similar to the fashion industry. Fashion masters design new fashions, second-rate designers imitate it, and thousands of people chase after it, so skirts are short and long.</p><p><b>4. Adhere to long-term thinking</b></p><p>Paying attention to short-term investment tends to ignore the importance of long-term investment. Enterprises often invest a lot of money to make long-term investments. Of course, there will be short-term effects at the same time. If the short-term effects dominate, it will endanger the company's development and prospects.</p><p>Profit should be based on long-term investment, effective management and seizing opportunities. If these are arranged well, short-term investment will not dominate.</p><p><b>5. Advance and retreat in time</b></p><p>Timing may not determine everything, but timing can determine many things. It could have been a good long-term investment, but if you buy it at the wrong time, the situation will be bad.</p><p>Sometimes, if you buy a highly speculative stock at the right time, you can also make money. Good securities analysts can do well without following the trend of the market, but if they follow the trend, the operation is easier.</p><p>Seizing the favorable opportunity is partly intuitive, and partly the opposite. The timing depends on one's own independent thinking. In economic operation, the upward trend may occur in the downward trend, and the recession will begin from the climax.</p><p>In some periods, ordinary stocks are the best investment, but in another period, perhaps the real estate industry is the best. Everything is changing, and people have to learn to change. I have absolutely no belief in the existence of a permanent industry.</p><p><b>6. Carefully analyze the company's status</b></p><p>It is necessary to carefully study the company's management status, leadership, company performance and company goals. In particular, it is necessary to carefully analyze the company's real asset status, including equipment value and net assets per share. This concept was widely valued at the beginning of the century, but it was almost forgotten since then.</p><p>If you can control the overall market price of a company, you can make more profits from it.</p><p><b>7. Don't fall in love</b></p><p>In this world full of adventures, because there are many possibilities, people will be obsessed with a certain idea, a certain person, a certain ideal. I'm afraid the last thing that can make people obsessed is stocks. But it's just a piece of paper to prove your ownership of a business, it's just a symbol of money.</p><p><b>8. Investment diversification, but no hedging transactions</b></p><p>Hedging is to take long positions on some stocks and short positions on others. Professionals use hedging to avoid risks in the daily market, and sometimes hedging is just a gamble for new entrants to the market. I'm not in favor of this. But there's no law against it either.</p><p>Hedging is indeed a revolution in modern stocks. A century ago, when you bought the same stock from new york and London markets, the price difference between cities was only slight. Experts buy a stock from one market and sell it in another. Although the money is small, it is still profitable.</p><p><b>9. Observe the surrounding environment</b></p><p>By environment, I mean the environment where the market is going and the world in general. You need to adapt those patterns I gave you to fit the workings of your market.</p><p>Stocks do not divide into seasons, and it is not necessary to invest according to the calendar. Remember, for investors, all times are risky. For those who enjoy life and investment happiness, although the seasons are changeable, opportunities are available at any time.</p><p><b>10. Don't stick to a rut</b></p><p>It is necessary to change one's way of thinking according to the changes of the situation. My point is that you should take the initiative to change according to changes in economic and political factors. As for technology, sometimes we can control it, but sometimes it is out of our control.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"qhrb_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期货日报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-02 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>There are three investors whose investment careers have spanned almost the entire 20th century, and two of them have bathed in the dawn of the 21st century.</p><p>They experienced the Great Crash of 1929, the Great Panic of 1987 and the decline of 1997; Together, the three of them have more than 200 years of experience owning stocks in bear and bull markets.</p><p>These three investors are<b>Philip Carey, Philip Fisher, and Roy Newberg.</b></p><p>By 1997, Carey was 100 years old, Fisher was 90 years old, and Newberg was 94 years old. At that time, you can find them in their respective offices, and the colleagues at their desks may be their great-grandchildren.</p><p>Each of these three century-old men has written books, and Kairui is the author of Wisdom; Fisher is the author of How to Choose Growth Stocks and How to Get Rich by Investing in the Stock Market; Newberg is the author of Advice.</p><p>All four books have become immortal works in the investment world, enduring and new over time. They have experienced countless bear markets, big and small, and are very close to bear markets. Now, let's listen to their truth in bear markets.</p><p>Carrie lived to be 101 years old, born in the same year that the Dow Jones Index was launched (1884), and experienced 31 bull markets, 30 bear markets, 20 economic recessions, and the Great Depression in his life.</p><p>He graduated from Harvard University in 1917 and joined Harvard Business School. He flew British warplanes over France at the end of World War I. People were deeply impressed by his intelligence, kind smile and long-term investment performance.</p><p>In 1927, Carrie came to New York to join a company. This company manages a mutual fund, and investors bid $10 per share for this fund, while Kerry, an internal economist of the company, calculated that it was worth at most $1.</p><p>After the Great Crash of 1929, it topped out at less than $1 per share. Along with the panic and collapse of the market, Kerry survived. He remembers the 1929 experience most vividly. He believes that \"the Great Crash of 1929 is more exciting than horrible\".</p><p>Most economists are still bullish, firmly believing that the decline is only short-lived, and few people see any clouds on the horizon. But by 1932, a quarter of the workforce had lost their jobs. On the verge of despair, Kerry launched his mutual fund, the Vanguard Fund.</p><p>Fifty years later, the Vanguard Fund has made its holders wealthy, with a compound yield of up to 13% per year. When he left Vanguard Fund, he managed a private investment portfolio of $225 million himself. During Carrie's investing career, he was almost always bullish, despite \"underweighting\" some stocks amid sharp declines.</p><p>In 1987, the Dow fell 500 points in one day. On that day, he was giving a speech in Italy. He said, \"They want to know what will happen. I don't know myself. I still don't know.\"</p><p>Kerry believes he will not be more pessimistic than when the Dow was at 7,000 in 1997. \"I didn't do anything about it in my own portfolio,\" he said. \"If the stock price falls, so will the portfolio. I'm 100 years old and can fail at any time. If I fail at the bottom of the bear market, I will save a lot of inheritance tax.\"</p><p>Regarding Mr. Kairui's investment record,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Warren Buffett, the respected CEO of Wei Company, praised him for \"setting the best long-term investment record in the United States.\"</p><p>Mr. Kai Rui took the lead in advocating the concept of \"value investing\" in 1927. In the following year, he established the world's first mutual fund-Pioneer Fund. In more than half a century, the fund he managed made extraordinary achievements.</p><p>Mr. Kairui mainly invests in enterprises with continuous profit growth and dedicated management. His investment method is still adopted by countless professional investors.</p><p>Carrie always keeps things simple. He has established an excellent company, and his investment achievements are still the envy of the world today.</p><p><b>Kai Rui summarized the \"Twelve Codes\" of Speculation</b></p><p><b>1.</b>Hold no less than ten securities and cover at least five industries.</p><p><b>Two,</b>Re-evaluate each security held at least semi-annually.</p><p><b>Three,</b>Put at least more than half of your funds in securities that generate fixed income.</p><p><b>Four,</b>When analyzing any stock, list the Dividend yield as the least important consideration.</p><p><b>5.</b>Admit your losses quickly and don't rush to take profits.</p><p><b>VI.</b>Information on certain securities is not readily available or the time of publication is uncertain, and the investment funds in these securities must not exceed 25%.</p><p><b>VII.</b>For \"inside information\", we should avoid it like the plague.</p><p><b>8.</b>Be diligent in finding facts and never ask for advice.</p><p><b>9.</b>Ignore the rigid formulas for evaluating securities.</p><p><b>10.</b>When stock prices are high, interest rates are rising, and the economy is booming, at least half of the funds should be put in short-term bonds.</p><p><b>11.</b>Try not to borrow money unless the stock price is low, interest rates are falling or falling, and the economy is in recession.</p><p><b>XII.</b>Allocate an appropriate proportion of funds to buy shares and long-term stock options in companies with good prospects.</p><p>He said: \"The tenth rule recognizes the circular nature of stock market volatility and is also a compromise between the two schools of thought of long-term speculation. Some people think that long-term speculators should try to buy stocks when the short market is close to the bottom according to the long swing of the stock market, and then sell all their holdings when the long market is close to the high point, and put the money they get in short-term securities, waiting for another short market buying point.</p><p>Another group believes that sound common stocks should be bought and held for a long time, and only when the prospects of one stock deteriorate, they should be sold and buy other more promising stocks. The ideal plan seems to find a compromise between the two extremes. Although speculative investors mainly want to buy stocks that may increase in value, rather than be interested in the stock market trend itself, they cannot ignore the long-term trend of long and short markets for granted.</p><p>After the long market has developed to a considerable extent, once the foundation of monetary easing begins to be destroyed, speculators had better review their holdings and consider disposing of most of them. At this time, they must not be obsessed with the original purchase cost of securities. \"</p><p>Compared with Carey, Fisher, born in San Francisco in 1907, his parents were the youngest among many children in their families, and his father was a doctor. He was particularly close to his grandmother. As a child, Fisher knew about the existence of the stock market and the opportunities brought by stock price movements.</p><p>This is because when Fisher was in elementary school, he visited his grandmother one day after class. It happened that an uncle was talking with his grandmother about the future prosperity of industry and commerce and the possible impact on stocks.</p><p>Fisher said, \"A whole new world unfolded in front of my eyes.\" Although the two discussed for only 10 minutes, Fisher listened with relish. Before long, Fisher began buying and selling stocks. The 1920s was an era of U.S. stock frenzy, and Fisher also made a little money. However, his father was very unhappy about his buying and selling stocks, thinking it was just gambling.</p><p>In 1929, as his father said, Fisher was stuck at the bottom of his passion for \"gambling\". This one was later seen as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000900\">Modern Investment</a>One of the pioneers of the theory, the father of growth stock value investment strategies, the godfather investment guru, and one of the most respected and respected investment experts on Wall Street, in that year, he submitted an article \"The Worst Big Short Market Will Unfold\" article.</p><p>This is his most amazing stock market forecast, but unfortunately he is bearish and long. He said: \"I can't help but be confused by the charm of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some cheap stocks and objects worth investing in, because they haven't gone up yet.\"</p><p>He invested several thousand dollars into three stocks. These three stocks are all low P/E stocks, one is a locomotive company, the other is an advertising board company, and the other is a taxi company.</p><p>After the stock market crash, although Fisher predicted a plunge in radio stocks, his three stocks were not much better. By 1932, his losses were extremely heavy.</p><p>Although this experience convinced him that he should lighten his position in a bear market, he remained full in all the ups and downs for the next 60 years. After the age of 90, he is still an active manager with many big customers.</p><p>Visit companies in their portfolio at least twice a year. He prefers to own six to nine companies, but refuses to comment on what stocks he owns, because he thinks it is unfair for customers to disclose these stocks for free.</p><p>Only twice after 1929 did Fisher feel that another Great Recession was coming. In 1987, he issued a bear market alert in his Forbes column. In 1997, he said, I have a feeling that the road we are walking today is somewhere between 1927 and 1929.</p><p>\"Enough people are panicking, so we haven't reached the top yet, but when I hear talk about now being a new era, a highland of permanent prosperity, and some other baloney, I get upset. This is the same comment I heard from another Fisher after the Great Crash of 1929.\"</p><p><b>Fisher's ten non-principles for investors</b></p><p><b>1.</b>Don't buy companies in the startup stage.</p><p><b>Two,</b>Don't abandon a good stock just because it is not listed for trading.</p><p><b>Three,</b>Don't buy shares of a company just because you like the style of its annual report.</p><p><b>Four,</b>Just because a company's P/E ratio is high, don't mean that the future earnings growth has been roughly reflected in the price.</p><p><b>5.</b>Don't worry about every penny.</p><p><b>VI.</b>Don't overemphasize diversification.</p><p><b>VII.</b>Don't worry about buying stocks in the shadow of war.</p><p><b>8.</b>Don't forget your Gilbert and Sullivan.</p><p><b>9.</b>When buying really good growth stocks, in addition to considering price, don't forget the timing factor.</p><p><b>10.</b>Don't dance with the crowd.</p><p>Fisher said that stock investment sometimes inevitably requires luck in some places, but in the long run, good luck and bad luck will offset each other. If you want to succeed continuously, you must rely on skills and apply good principles. According to Fisher's principle framework, I believe that the future belongs to those who can discipline themselves and are willing to put in their efforts.</p><p>Newberg, who was born in the United States in 1903, also left Paris to come to Wall Street in 1929. He was the only person on Wall Street who lived through the Great Depression of 1929 and the stock market crash of 1987 at the same time.</p><p>When he first arrived on Wall Street, he began his life as a broker and trader. In March of that year, he bought his first stock, but he also shorted the stock. At that time, he was shorting the stock of American Broadcasting Corporation (RCA), which had a price of $574 before one share was divided into five shares, and there was no reason for it to overcorrect its stock price.</p><p>Newberg looked for older investors to find his explanation, but he didn't get an enlightening answer. People all say, \"We are entering an era of broadcasting\". Newberg had a premonition that once the fuelers made profits, the stock would collapse, and eventually the price of this stock reached $2.</p><p>Newberg, meanwhile, made a profit when he sold short. Five months later, when the Dow recovered half of its decline, financiers and political leaders declared it an anomaly and predicted that prosperity would come immediately. \"They were all wrong,\" Newberg later recalled.</p><p>Newberg broke even in this crash and subsequent results, with profits from short positions equal to his losses from long positions. Neuberg founded his own company in 1939. In 1950, he founded the low-commission \"Protector Fund\" and was the father of open-end funds in the United States.</p><p>Newberg is bullish \"95% of the time\" and only occasionally shorts. The same technique also happened in later investment years. \"I hedged my portfolio in the late 1972-1973,\" Newberg recalled. In 1987, \"I hedged my portfolio after a ridiculous price hike.\"</p><p>In 1997, after a ridiculous rally, \"I hedged again. At this point, I'm selling short stock futures, selling short<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>, short selling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>-The most popular drink in the world. \"</p><p>Newberg explained that Coca-Cola sales grew only 3% in 1996. \"I can't figure out why people are willing to pay 42 times P/E's price.\" But he added, \"I've been a fool on this so far. I should have realized that the whole world is addicted to Coca-Cola.\"</p><p><b>Newberg's Ten Principles of Investing</b></p><p><b>1. Understand yourself</b></p><p>The success of investors is based on existing knowledge and experience. You'd better invest professionally in areas you're familiar with. If you know little or don't analyze the company and its details at all, you'd better stay away from it.</p><p>You should also check that you are physically and mentally qualified before you actually become an investor. A good body is the foundation of your informed judgment, don't underestimate it.</p><p><b>2. Learn from successful investors</b></p><p>Even successful investors, many of whom have had a tough time towards the end of the decade. I have talked to many of them, and only a small number of them believe that they can still grasp the situation of the market in 1996 when the stock market rose again and again.</p><p><b>Third, \"Yangshi\" thinking</b></p><p>The influence of individual investors on a stock can sometimes make it fluctuate by 10 percentage points, but that is only a moment, usually a day, not more than a week. This market is neither a bull market nor a bear market.</p><p>I call such markets \"sheep markets\". Sometimes the flock was slaughtered, sometimes the wool was sheared off. Sometimes one can lucky escape and keep the fleece. The \"sheep market\" is somewhat similar to the fashion industry. Fashion masters design new fashions, second-rate designers imitate it, and thousands of people chase after it, so skirts are short and long.</p><p><b>4. Adhere to long-term thinking</b></p><p>Paying attention to short-term investment tends to ignore the importance of long-term investment. Enterprises often invest a lot of money to make long-term investments. Of course, there will be short-term effects at the same time. If the short-term effects dominate, it will endanger the company's development and prospects.</p><p>Profit should be based on long-term investment, effective management and seizing opportunities. If these are arranged well, short-term investment will not dominate.</p><p><b>5. Advance and retreat in time</b></p><p>Timing may not determine everything, but timing can determine many things. It could have been a good long-term investment, but if you buy it at the wrong time, the situation will be bad.</p><p>Sometimes, if you buy a highly speculative stock at the right time, you can also make money. Good securities analysts can do well without following the trend of the market, but if they follow the trend, the operation is easier.</p><p>Seizing the favorable opportunity is partly intuitive, and partly the opposite. The timing depends on one's own independent thinking. In economic operation, the upward trend may occur in the downward trend, and the recession will begin from the climax.</p><p>In some periods, ordinary stocks are the best investment, but in another period, perhaps the real estate industry is the best. Everything is changing, and people have to learn to change. I have absolutely no belief in the existence of a permanent industry.</p><p><b>6. Carefully analyze the company's status</b></p><p>It is necessary to carefully study the company's management status, leadership, company performance and company goals. In particular, it is necessary to carefully analyze the company's real asset status, including equipment value and net assets per share. This concept was widely valued at the beginning of the century, but it was almost forgotten since then.</p><p>If you can control the overall market price of a company, you can make more profits from it.</p><p><b>7. Don't fall in love</b></p><p>In this world full of adventures, because there are many possibilities, people will be obsessed with a certain idea, a certain person, a certain ideal. I'm afraid the last thing that can make people obsessed is stocks. But it's just a piece of paper to prove your ownership of a business, it's just a symbol of money.</p><p><b>8. Investment diversification, but no hedging transactions</b></p><p>Hedging is to take long positions on some stocks and short positions on others. Professionals use hedging to avoid risks in the daily market, and sometimes hedging is just a gamble for new entrants to the market. I'm not in favor of this. But there's no law against it either.</p><p>Hedging is indeed a revolution in modern stocks. A century ago, when you bought the same stock from new york and London markets, the price difference between cities was only slight. Experts buy a stock from one market and sell it in another. Although the money is small, it is still profitable.</p><p><b>9. Observe the surrounding environment</b></p><p>By environment, I mean the environment where the market is going and the world in general. You need to adapt those patterns I gave you to fit the workings of your market.</p><p>Stocks do not divide into seasons, and it is not necessary to invest according to the calendar. Remember, for investors, all times are risky. For those who enjoy life and investment happiness, although the seasons are changeable, opportunities are available at any time.</p><p><b>10. Don't stick to a rut</b></p><p>It is necessary to change one's way of thinking according to the changes of the situation. My point is that you should take the initiative to change according to changes in economic and political factors. As for technology, sometimes we can control it, but sometimes it is out of our control.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s-2BdqAXtKtUGrjI1TloGQ\">期货日报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s-2BdqAXtKtUGrjI1TloGQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137215289","content_text":"有这样三位投资者，他们的投资生涯几乎横贯了整个20世纪，其中两人还沐浴过21世纪的曙光。他们经历了1929年的大崩盘，又经历了1987年的大恐慌以及1997年的下跌；他们三人加在一起，在熊市和牛市中拥有股票的经验超过200年。这三位投资者分别是菲利普·凯睿、菲利普·费雪以及罗伊·纽伯格。到1997年的时候，凯睿100岁、费雪90岁、纽伯格94岁。那时，你可以在他们各自的办公室里找到他们，而他们桌子旁边的同事可能是他们的曾孙。这三位世纪老人各自都写过书，凯睿著有《智慧》；费雪著有《怎样选择成长股》和《股市投资致富之道》；纽伯格著有《忠告》。这四本书都成为投资界中的不朽之作，历久而弥新。他们经历了无数个大大小小的熊市，对熊市十分亲密，现在，让我们倾听他们在熊市中的真言。凯睿活到101岁，出生于推出道琼斯指数的同一年(1884年)，一生经历了31次牛市、30次熊市、20次经济衰退以及大萧条时期。他1917年毕业于哈佛大学，并加入了哈佛商学院，在第一次世界大战末期驾驶着英国战机穿梭在法国上空，他的才智、亲切的微笑以及长期投资业绩给人们留下了深刻的印象。1927年凯睿来到纽约，加入一个公司。这个公司管理着一只共同基金，投资者为这只基金每股出价10美元，而作为公司内部的经济学家凯睿计算它最多值1美元。1929年大崩盘后，它每股最高不到1美元。伴随着市场的恐慌和崩溃，凯睿幸存了下来。他对1929年的经历记忆最为清晰。他认为，“1929年大崩盘与其说恐怖，不如说更加令人兴奋”。多数经济学家依然看多，坚信下跌只是短暂的，几乎没有人看到地平线上有任何阴云。可是到1932年，有四分之一的劳动力失去了工作。在快要绝望的情况下，凯睿发起了他的共同基金——先锋基金。50年后，先锋基金使其持有者富有，每年的复合收益率高达13%。当他离开先锋基金后，又自己管理着2.25亿美元的私人投资组合。在凯睿的投资生涯中，尽管他在大幅下跌中“减持”了一些股票，但他几乎总是看多。1987年道指一天下跌了500点，那天，他正在意大利演讲，他说，“他们想知道将会发生什么，我自己也不知道，我现在仍然不知道。”凯睿相信他不会比1997年道指在7000点时更悲观。“在我自己的投资组合里我没有为此做任何事，”他说，“如果股价下跌，投资组合也会下跌。我已经100岁了，随时都有可能失灵。如果我在熊市的底部失灵，将会节约很多遗产税。”对于凯睿先生的投资记录，伯克希尔韦公司受人尊敬的CEO沃伦巴菲特称赞他“创下了美国最好的长线投资纪录”。凯睿先生1927年率先倡导“价值投资”理念，第二年他就成立了全球第一只共同基金——先锋基金，在半个多世纪内，他所管理的这只基金取得了非凡的成就。凯睿先生主要投资那些利润持续增长、管理层乐于奉献的企业，他的这个投资方法仍被无数的专业投资人士所采用。凯睿总是让事情保持简单，他成立了一家卓越的公司，他所取得的投资成就依然受到当今世界的羡慕。凯睿总结了投机的“十二守则”一、持有的证券不要少于十种，涵盖的行业至少为五种。二、至少每半年重新评估所持有的每一种证券。三、至少把一半以上的资金放在能产生固定收益的证券上。四、分析任何股票时，把股息收益率列为最不重要的考虑因素。五、迅速认赔，不要急于获利了结。六、某些证券的资料不容易获得或公布的时间不确定，这部分证券的投入资金绝不能超过25%。七、对于“内线消息”，要像逃避瘟疫一样避之唯恐不及。八、勤于寻找事实，绝不寻求建议。九、不必理会评估证券的呆板公式。十、当股价处在高位、利率攀升、景气繁荣时，至少应该把一半的资金放在短期债券上。十一、尽量不要借钱，除非是股价处在低位、利率下降或走低、景气衰退。十二、拨出适当比例的资金，购买前景良好公司的股票和长期认股权。他说：“第十条规则是承认股市波动的循环性质，也是长期投机两派思潮的妥协。有些人认为长期投机者应该根据股市的长波段交易，设法在空头市场接近底部时购买股票，然后在多头市场接近最高点时卖掉全部持股，并把得到的钱放在短期证券中，等待另一次空头市场的买点。另一派人认为，应该购买健全的普通股长期持有，只有在一只股票的前景变差后才卖掉，转买其他更有希望的股票。理想的计划似乎应该在两个极端之间寻找折中点，虽然投机性投资人主要是想买到可能增值的股票，而不是对股市趋势本身有兴趣，但不能理所当然地忽视多头和空头市场的长期走势。多头市场经过相当程度的发展之后，一旦银根宽松的基础开始毁坏，投机者最好检视自己的持股，考虑处分其中大部分持股，这时绝对不可执着于证券当初的买进成本。”相比于凯睿，1907年生于三藩市的费雪，父母均是各自家中众多儿女中排行最小的，父亲是个医生。他与祖母特别亲近。小时候费雪就知道股票市场的存在以及股价变动带来的机会。这缘于费雪上小学时，有一天下课后去看望祖母，恰好一位伯父正与祖母谈论未来工商业的景气，以及股票可能受到的影响。费雪说：“一个全新的世界展开在我眼前。”两人虽然只讨论了10分钟，但是费雪却听得津津有味。不久，费雪就开始买卖股票。1920年代是美股狂热的年代，费雪亦赚到一点钱。然而他父亲对于其买卖股票的事情很不高兴，认为这只是赌博。一如他父亲所说，1929年，费雪被他所热衷的“赌博”困在谷底。这位后来被视为现代投资理论的开路先锋之一，成长股价值投资策略之父，教父级的投资大师，华尔街极受尊重和推崇的投资专家之一的人，在那一年，曾提交一份《25年来最严重的大空头市场将展开》的文章。这是他最令人赞叹的股市预测，可惜他看空做多。他说：“我免不了被股市的魅力所惑。于是我到处寻找一些还算便宜的股票，以及值得投资的对象，因为它们还没涨到位。”他投入几千美元到3只股票中。这3只股票均是低P／E股，一家是火车头公司，一家是广告看板公司，另一家是出租汽车公司。股市崩溃后，尽管费雪预测无线电股将暴跌，但是他持有的3只股票也好不了多少，到1932年，他的损失极为惨重。尽管这段经历让他相信在熊市中应该减轻仓位，但在这之后的60年中，他在所有的上涨和下跌中都保持满仓投资。他在90岁以后，依然是一个积极的管理者，有很多大客户。每年至少走访在其投资组合中的公司两次。他偏好于拥有6~9个公司，但是对于他拥有什么股票拒绝评论，因为他认为对于客户而言，无偿透露这些股票是不公平的。在1929年后费雪只有两次感觉到另一次大衰退即将到来。1987年，他在《福布斯》的专栏上发布了一次熊市警报。1997年，他说，我有一种感觉，今天我们正走的路就是1927~1929年之间的某个地方。“足够的人感到恐慌，因此我们还没有达到顶部，但是当我听到谈论关于现在是一个新时代，一个永久繁荣的高地，以及其他一些胡扯时，我感到不安。这和我在1929年大崩盘之后从另一个费雪那里听到的评论相同。”费雪的投资人十不原则一、不买处于创业阶段的公司。二、不要因为一只好股票未上市交易，就弃之不顾。三、不要因为你喜欢某公司年报的格调，就去买该公司的股票。四、不要因为一家公司的本益比高，便表示未来的盈余成长已大致反映在价格上。五、不要锱铢计较。六、不要过度强调分散投资。七、不要担心在战争阴影笼罩下买进股票。八、不要忘了你的吉尔伯特和沙利文。九、买进真正优秀的成长股时，除了考虑价格，不要忘了时机因素。十、不要随群众起舞。费雪说，股票投资，有时难免有些地方需要靠运气，但长期而言，好运、倒霉会相抵，想要持续成功，必须靠技能和运用良好的原则。根据费雪的原则架构，相信未来属于那些能够自律且肯付出心血的人。1903年出生于美国的纽伯格也是在1929年离开巴黎来到华尔街的。他是唯一同时在华尔街经历了1929年大萧条和1987年股市崩溃的人。初到华尔街的时候，他开始了在经纪商和交易员中的生活。当年3月份，买了自己的第一只股票，但他也卖空股票。当时他卖空的是美国广播公司（RCA）的股票，这只股票在1股分为5股前价格达到了574美元，并且没有什么原因会导致它过分修正股价。纽伯格找老一点的投资者寻找其解释，没有得到有启发的答案，人们都这样说，“我们正在进入一个广播的时代”。纽伯格预感到一旦推波助澜者获取利润将发生崩盘，最终这只股票的价格达到2美元。与此同时，纽伯格在卖空时赚取了利润。5个月后，当道指恢复其跌幅一半时，金融家和政治领袖们宣布这是一种反常情况，预测繁荣马上就会来临。纽伯格后来回忆道：“他们都错了。”纽伯格在这次大崩盘和后续结果中盈亏平衡，来自空头头寸的盈利与他来自多头头寸的亏损相等。1939年纽伯格创立了自己的公司。1950年创建低佣金的“保护者基金”，为美国开放式基金之父。在“95%的时间”纽伯格是看多的，只有偶尔会做空。同样的手法也发生在以后的投资岁月里。“我在1972~1973年后期对冲了我的投资组合，”纽伯格回忆说，1987年，“我在一轮可笑的价格上涨之后，对投资组合进行了对冲。”1997年，在经历了一轮可笑的上涨之后，“我又一次进行了对冲。在目前这个时点，我卖空股指期货，卖空微软，卖空可口可乐——这个世界上最受欢迎的饮料。”纽伯格解释说，1996年可口可乐销售仅增长3%，“我想不通人们为什么愿意支付42倍市盈率的价格。”但是他又说，“到目前为止，我在这件事上还是个傻瓜，我应该意识到全世界都对可口可乐上瘾。”纽伯格投资十大原则一、了解自己投资者的成功是建立在已有的知识和经验基础上的。你最好在自己熟悉的领域进行专业投资，如果你知之甚少，或者根本没有对公司及细节进行分析，你最好还是离它远点。在你真正成为一名投资者之前，你也应该检查一下身体和精神是否合格。好的身体是你做出明智判断的基础，不要低估它。二、向成功的投资者学习即使是成功的投资者，他们中的许多人也在本世纪末度过了一段艰难时期。我和他们中许多人交谈过，其中只有一小部分人相信，1996年在股票一涨再涨的情况下，他们还能把握市场的形势。三、“羊市”思维个人投资者对一只股票的影响，有时会让它上下浮动10个百分点，但那只是一瞬间，一般是一天，不会超过一个星期。这种市场即非牛市也非熊市。我称这样的市场为“羊市”。有时羊群会遭到杀戮，有时会被剪掉一身羊毛。有时可以幸运地逃脱，保住羊毛。“羊市”与时装业有些类似。时装大师设计新款时装，二流设计师仿制它，成千上万的人追赶它，所以裙子忽短忽长。四、坚持长线思维注重短线投资容易忽略长线投资的重要性。企业经常投入大量资金，进行长线投资，当然同时会有短期效应，如果短期效果占主导作用，那将危害公司的发展和前景。获利应建立在长线投资、有效管理、抓住机遇的基础上。如果安排好这些，短线投资就不会占主要地位。五、及时进退时机可能不能决定所有事情，但时机可以决定许多事情。本来可能是一个好的长线投资，但是如果在错误的时间买入，情况会很糟。有的时候，如果你适时购入一只高投机股票，你同样可以赚钱。优秀的证券分析人可以不追随市场大流而做得很好，但如果顺潮流而动，操作起来就更简单些。把握有利时机一部分是靠直觉，一部分却正相反。时机的选定要靠自己的独立思维。在经济运行中，升势可能在跌势中产生，衰退会从高潮开始。在有的时期，普通股票是最好的投资，但是在另一时期，也许房地产业是最好的。任何事情都在变，人们也要学会变。我完全不信会存在一个永久不变的产业。六、认真分析公司状况必须认真研究公司的管理状况、领导层、公司业绩以及公司目标，尤其需要认真分析公司真实的资产状况，包括：设备价值及每股净资产。这个概念在世纪初曾被广泛重视，但这之后几乎被遗忘了。如果你能控制一家公司的整体市价，你就可以从中获得更多的利润。七、不要陷入情网在这个充满冒险的世界里，因为存在着许多可能性，人们会痴迷于某种想法、某个人、某种理想。最后能使人痴迷的恐怕就算股票了。但它只是一张证明你对一家企业所有权的纸，它只是金钱的一种象征。八、投资多元化，但不做套头交易套头交易就是对一些股票做多头，对另一些股票做空头。专业人士在日常的市场利用套头交易回避风险，有时新入市做套头交易只是一场赌博。我不赞成这样做。但也没有法律禁止它。套头交易的确是现代股票的一项变革，一个世纪以前当你从纽约和伦敦市场购买同一种股票时，城市间的差价只是些微的。专家们从一个市场买进一只股票，又在另一个市场上卖掉它，虽然赚钱很少，但还是有盈利的。九、观察周围环境我所说的环境是指市场走向和整个世界的环境。你需要变通我给你的那些模式，以适应你所在的市场的运作。股票不分季节，按照日历投资是没有必要的。记住，对投资者来讲，任何时候都是冒险的。对享受人生和享受投资快乐的人来说，季节虽多变，但机会随时都有。十、不要墨守成规根据形势的变化改变自己的思维方式是有必要的。我的观点是，你应该主动根据经济、政治因素的变化而变化。至于技术上，有时我们可以控制，但有时却是在我们控制之外的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950381246,"gmtCreate":1672673145086,"gmtModify":1676538718164,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581927941435634","idStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176041035","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>High inflation and low unemployment rate mean that the rate hike and shrinking balance sheet storms in the United States will set off a frenzy, fast and fast.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January released a strong hawkish signal, which not only kicked off the rate hike, but also followed closely by quantitative tightening (QT). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that there has been no progress in the supply chain. It can be seen that he is very worried about inflation, and high inflation will last longer than expected.</p><p><b>Major Wall Street banks currently expect to start a rate hike in March, a rate hike four times throughout the year, and a shrinking balance sheet around July. How far will the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet shrink to curb stubborn inflation? Where is the bottom of the stock market?</b>So far, the S&P 500 index has fallen by nearly 10% from its high level, and the Nasdaq 100 index has also fallen by more than 15%, approaching a technical bear market. The impact of austerity has spillover effects all over the world. Even in China, which started policy easing, A-shares actually fell below 3,400 points last week.</p><p>A number of U.S. stock traders told the author that due to the constraints of ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put option\" (central bank put, that is, the central bank often releases liquidity to rescue the market when the market falls) that has been tried and tested over the past decade has gradually failed, and the strategy of \"bargain hunting\" may withdraw from the stage of history.</p><p>However, due to the recent sharp decline in U.S. stocks, a technical rebound is likely to occur in the next week or two, but it is likely to continue to decline in the future. The 4818 points of the S&P 500 may be the highest level in the past two years. At present, some traders even give the market outlook. A target of 3800 points.</p><p><b>Austerity Storm Hits</b></p><p>Powell showed an hawkish posture at a press conference that started at 3 a.m. Beijing time on January 27. Compared with the moderate monetary policy statement, his tone was more hawkish. Risk assets fell in response, and the three major U.S. stock indexes turned from rising to fall.</p><p>Powell reiterated his plan to quickly withdraw from quantitative easing, while also hinting that rate hike is likely to be launched as soon as the next March meeting.</p><p>Some highlights of the press conference are as follows: wages are growing rapidly; Inflation remains well above long-term targets and has a broader impact; The economy no longer needs sustained high-intensity policy support; The Committee generally agreed that the time for rate hike would soon come; Powell doesn't rule out rate hike at every FOMC meeting; There is considerable room for interest rates to be raised; FOMC intends to rate hike at March meeting; The Fed's balance sheet is much larger than necessary; Inflation risks remain upward; Inflation is likely to remain higher for longer than expected.</p><p>Some traders mentioned to the author that we need to be alert to the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50bp in March, just as after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp at one time to carry out policy control that exceeded expectations. The resilience of the job market provides sufficient space for rate hike without leading to economic recession. \"It is expected that the GDP growth rate of the United States will be around 5%, and the growth may slow down, but there will be no negative growth rate and recession degree.\"</p><p>The just-released preliminary value of U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter shows that the economic growth rate is 6.9%, higher than the expected value of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. One important piece of information worth noting is the sub-indicator of inflation called the \"price index\" or \"deflator\".</p><p>The GDP report showed that the indicator rose to 7% from the previous value of 5.9%, higher than the expected value of 6%. Another important data is the initial value of the personal consumption index and the core personal consumption index in the fourth quarter. The former was reported at 6.5%, and the expected value and the previous value were both 5.4% respectively. The core personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, was reported at 4.9%, in line with expectations, but higher than the previous value of 4.6%.</p><p>Faced with such high inflation, and in the future, due to high oil prices and continued supply chain problems, inflation will be difficult to decline in the short term. In addition, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. If it does not tighten, the Federal Reserve will face huge political and social pressure. After all, in the United States, box lunch and milk prices have soared by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks are far from falling</b></p><p>Restricted by ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put options\" that have been tried and tested over the past decade have gradually expired, and U.S. stocks will continue to fall.<b>Of course, the \"bull market inertia\" of the stock market rising under low interest rates for more than ten years has accumulated, and the decline will inevitably be accompanied by a rebound until the bulls are completely desperate.</b></p><p>\"I think the market will continue to fall, but since we are now in oversold territory, there will be a rebound in the process of the decline, but I don't think it will be sustained.\" Joe Perry, a senior trader and City Index analyst, told the author, \"Rising interest rates will lead to higher discount rates for future cash, which will put pressure on valuations and impact the profit margins of growth technology companies. In addition, although earnings have not been revised down, earnings results are only in line with expectations or slightly beat expectations, and performance guidance is weaker than expected.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Nasdaq 100 Index</p><p>He mentioned that before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>(Netflix) 's guidance fell short of expectations, and the market expected that the number of new subscribers would increase by more than 5 million, but in fact it only increased by 2.85 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The performance is in line with expectations, but cloud computing business revenue is expected to decline in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The released results exceeded expectations, but supply chain issues will still run through 2022, or affect shipments. Although the performance of the big companies that the market is concerned about is acceptable, there are also hidden dangers, which is why Microsoft's stock price plummeted when its results were released before, and so did Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to the most vulnerable technology stocks, the outlook for the less volatile S&P 500 is not optimistic. \"I think the S&P 500 index has room for further downside. Today, the stock index just remains near the 200-day moving average. I think it will fall further. In the future, it may look towards 3,800 points, which is also the lowest point in the autumn of 2020 to the highest point in early January 2022. 50% retracement of the market.\" He said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The combination of \"rate hike + shrinking balance sheet + high inflation\" is fatal for the stock market. The point is that oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2022, putting upward pressure on already high inflation again. Many institutions predict that under the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices are likely to break through the $100 mark. Even without this important factor, falling inventories will cause oil prices to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Perry said: \"There will still be room for oil prices to rise, especially considering the tension between Russia and Ukraine, and OPEC's output cannot climb. It may indeed hit the $100 mark in the first quarter, but it is more likely in the second and third quarters. By then, crude oil demand will also rise.\"</p><p><b>At present, the tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border has intensified. Last week, the two sides said that they would hold further negotiations within two weeks, but this period may still cause great uncertainty.</b>The U.S. secretary of state previously warned that \"if Russia sends another force into Ukraine, it will trigger a U.S. response\" and ordered U.S. embassy personnel to leave Ukraine. The UK Foreign Office estimates that about 100,000 Russian servicemen are currently massing at the border.</p><p>International asset management institutions believe that a diplomatic response is more likely, and a full-scale armed conflict seems unlikely. Invesco believes that the reasons are: severe financial sanctions from the United States and the European Union; Cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline via Ukraine; It may permanently turn the EU away from its dependence on Russian energy.</p><p>Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for about 9% of total energy consumption in Western Europe, and Russian oil accounts for about 10% of global oil production. Russia seems to be too economically at risk to make this gamble. Therefore, a more likely scenario is to reach a diplomatic response: if NATO promises to stop political and military engagement with Ukrainians, and if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is allowed to enter EU countries, the Russian troops will be withdrawn. This can provide immediate relief from skyrocketing energy prices, especially natural gas prices.</p><p>What if there is an armed conflict? Global oil supply will be greatly affected. In this scenario, analysts expect a 2.3 million barrels per day decline in oil supply, which would push oil prices to almost double to around $150 per barrel, thereby knocking global GDP by 1.6%. This will put significant upward pressure on inflation in Western countries. Many major central banks are likely to preemptively raise policy rates, thus curbing the economic rebound.</p><p>But in fact, from an investment perspective, no matter what happens in Ukraine, it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector because:</p><p><b>It can be a good hedge against inflation. Strong global demand should keep prices high, while potentially severe supply disruptions from military action will only drive energy prices further.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A-share center moves down</b></p><p><b>Looking at the Chinese stock market, the U.S. currency tightened and U.S. stocks fell. China's money is loose, but A shares fall even more. What's going on here?</b></p><p>Since January (January 26), the CSI 300 Index has fallen 4.6%. However, institutional people interviewed by the author generally believe that it is recommended to remain calm in February and not rush to increase positions.</p><p>According to AVIC Trust, the economic data in December last year was lower than expected, real estate investment, sales, new construction and other indicators experienced significant negative growth, and consumption growth declined. Facing the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics from January to February, the epidemic prevention and control situation will be more serious, and consumption will be weaker. Real estate is in the off-season, and it is difficult for distressed real estate companies to improve, which continues to drag down the economy. The bright spot of the macro economy is still in foreign trade. In the first quarter, import and export will follow the trend of last year and continue to maintain rapid growth. However, corporate profits lag behind the economic cycle, and the decline in economic growth will lead to the continued decline in corporate profit growth in the first quarter.</p><p>In terms of policy, monetary policy has been significantly loosened. In January, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase rate were lowered by 10BP. In the fourth quarter of last year, monetary easing was a minor fuss, but this year's monetary policy has made a clear turn. However, fiscal efforts have to wait for the \"two sessions\". The fiscal lag leads to the lack of \"focus\" of monetary policy in the first quarter, and there is nowhere to use its strength. In addition, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will start rate hike in March, and rate hike may reach 3-4 times during the year, which will also offset some of the domestic easing effects.</p><p>At present, the incremental funds of A shares are also insufficient. The issuance of Public Offering of Fund has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year, with only 60-70 billion new Public Offering of Fund issued in January. In the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of quantitative products was poor and it was redeemed by investors.<b>In 2021, capital inflows from the north will flow significantly into A-shares, but under the background of the strict supervision of \"fake foreign capital\" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, it is expected that the scale of capital inflows from the north this year will be weaker than last year.</b>With the end of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, the transfer of funds from non-standard assets to the stock market is coming to an end, and the sources of incremental funds in the stock market are reduced.</p><p>Taking the new energy track stocks with a large pullback/retracement recently as an example, investment institutions are currently paying more attention to valuation. For a company with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, it may be reasonable to give a valuation of 40 times, but if it was given 50-60 times, or even hundreds of times before, there must be irrational components, the possibility of subsequent valuation killing will increase. \"As for whether it is worth it now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>, the judgment is not difficult-the current prosperity has not changed. If the valuation falls to 30 times, then you can get 30% of the possible room for making money. If it only returns to 40 times, then the room for buying profits is still limited.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-31 14:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>High inflation and low unemployment rate mean that the rate hike and shrinking balance sheet storms in the United States will set off a frenzy, fast and fast.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January released a strong hawkish signal, which not only kicked off the rate hike, but also followed closely by quantitative tightening (QT). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that there has been no progress in the supply chain. It can be seen that he is very worried about inflation, and high inflation will last longer than expected.</p><p><b>Major Wall Street banks currently expect to start a rate hike in March, a rate hike four times throughout the year, and a shrinking balance sheet around July. How far will the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet shrink to curb stubborn inflation? Where is the bottom of the stock market?</b>So far, the S&P 500 index has fallen by nearly 10% from its high level, and the Nasdaq 100 index has also fallen by more than 15%, approaching a technical bear market. The impact of austerity has spillover effects all over the world. Even in China, which started policy easing, A-shares actually fell below 3,400 points last week.</p><p>A number of U.S. stock traders told the author that due to the constraints of ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put option\" (central bank put, that is, the central bank often releases liquidity to rescue the market when the market falls) that has been tried and tested over the past decade has gradually failed, and the strategy of \"bargain hunting\" may withdraw from the stage of history.</p><p>However, due to the recent sharp decline in U.S. stocks, a technical rebound is likely to occur in the next week or two, but it is likely to continue to decline in the future. The 4818 points of the S&P 500 may be the highest level in the past two years. At present, some traders even give the market outlook. A target of 3800 points.</p><p><b>Austerity Storm Hits</b></p><p>Powell showed an hawkish posture at a press conference that started at 3 a.m. Beijing time on January 27. Compared with the moderate monetary policy statement, his tone was more hawkish. Risk assets fell in response, and the three major U.S. stock indexes turned from rising to fall.</p><p>Powell reiterated his plan to quickly withdraw from quantitative easing, while also hinting that rate hike is likely to be launched as soon as the next March meeting.</p><p>Some highlights of the press conference are as follows: wages are growing rapidly; Inflation remains well above long-term targets and has a broader impact; The economy no longer needs sustained high-intensity policy support; The Committee generally agreed that the time for rate hike would soon come; Powell doesn't rule out rate hike at every FOMC meeting; There is considerable room for interest rates to be raised; FOMC intends to rate hike at March meeting; The Fed's balance sheet is much larger than necessary; Inflation risks remain upward; Inflation is likely to remain higher for longer than expected.</p><p>Some traders mentioned to the author that we need to be alert to the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50bp in March, just as after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp at one time to carry out policy control that exceeded expectations. The resilience of the job market provides sufficient space for rate hike without leading to economic recession. \"It is expected that the GDP growth rate of the United States will be around 5%, and the growth may slow down, but there will be no negative growth rate and recession degree.\"</p><p>The just-released preliminary value of U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter shows that the economic growth rate is 6.9%, higher than the expected value of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. One important piece of information worth noting is the sub-indicator of inflation called the \"price index\" or \"deflator\".</p><p>The GDP report showed that the indicator rose to 7% from the previous value of 5.9%, higher than the expected value of 6%. Another important data is the initial value of the personal consumption index and the core personal consumption index in the fourth quarter. The former was reported at 6.5%, and the expected value and the previous value were both 5.4% respectively. The core personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, was reported at 4.9%, in line with expectations, but higher than the previous value of 4.6%.</p><p>Faced with such high inflation, and in the future, due to high oil prices and continued supply chain problems, inflation will be difficult to decline in the short term. In addition, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. If it does not tighten, the Federal Reserve will face huge political and social pressure. After all, in the United States, box lunch and milk prices have soared by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks are far from falling</b></p><p>Restricted by ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put options\" that have been tried and tested over the past decade have gradually expired, and U.S. stocks will continue to fall.<b>Of course, the \"bull market inertia\" of the stock market rising under low interest rates for more than ten years has accumulated, and the decline will inevitably be accompanied by a rebound until the bulls are completely desperate.</b></p><p>\"I think the market will continue to fall, but since we are now in oversold territory, there will be a rebound in the process of the decline, but I don't think it will be sustained.\" Joe Perry, a senior trader and City Index analyst, told the author, \"Rising interest rates will lead to higher discount rates for future cash, which will put pressure on valuations and impact the profit margins of growth technology companies. In addition, although earnings have not been revised down, earnings results are only in line with expectations or slightly beat expectations, and performance guidance is weaker than expected.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Nasdaq 100 Index</p><p>He mentioned that before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>(Netflix) 's guidance fell short of expectations, and the market expected that the number of new subscribers would increase by more than 5 million, but in fact it only increased by 2.85 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The performance is in line with expectations, but cloud computing business revenue is expected to decline in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The released results exceeded expectations, but supply chain issues will still run through 2022, or affect shipments. Although the performance of the big companies that the market is concerned about is acceptable, there are also hidden dangers, which is why Microsoft's stock price plummeted when its results were released before, and so did Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to the most vulnerable technology stocks, the outlook for the less volatile S&P 500 is not optimistic. \"I think the S&P 500 index has room for further downside. Today, the stock index just remains near the 200-day moving average. I think it will fall further. In the future, it may look towards 3,800 points, which is also the lowest point in the autumn of 2020 to the highest point in early January 2022. 50% retracement of the market.\" He said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The combination of \"rate hike + shrinking balance sheet + high inflation\" is fatal for the stock market. The point is that oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2022, putting upward pressure on already high inflation again. Many institutions predict that under the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices are likely to break through the $100 mark. Even without this important factor, falling inventories will cause oil prices to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Perry said: \"There will still be room for oil prices to rise, especially considering the tension between Russia and Ukraine, and OPEC's output cannot climb. It may indeed hit the $100 mark in the first quarter, but it is more likely in the second and third quarters. By then, crude oil demand will also rise.\"</p><p><b>At present, the tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border has intensified. Last week, the two sides said that they would hold further negotiations within two weeks, but this period may still cause great uncertainty.</b>The U.S. secretary of state previously warned that \"if Russia sends another force into Ukraine, it will trigger a U.S. response\" and ordered U.S. embassy personnel to leave Ukraine. The UK Foreign Office estimates that about 100,000 Russian servicemen are currently massing at the border.</p><p>International asset management institutions believe that a diplomatic response is more likely, and a full-scale armed conflict seems unlikely. Invesco believes that the reasons are: severe financial sanctions from the United States and the European Union; Cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline via Ukraine; It may permanently turn the EU away from its dependence on Russian energy.</p><p>Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for about 9% of total energy consumption in Western Europe, and Russian oil accounts for about 10% of global oil production. Russia seems to be too economically at risk to make this gamble. Therefore, a more likely scenario is to reach a diplomatic response: if NATO promises to stop political and military engagement with Ukrainians, and if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is allowed to enter EU countries, the Russian troops will be withdrawn. This can provide immediate relief from skyrocketing energy prices, especially natural gas prices.</p><p>What if there is an armed conflict? Global oil supply will be greatly affected. In this scenario, analysts expect a 2.3 million barrels per day decline in oil supply, which would push oil prices to almost double to around $150 per barrel, thereby knocking global GDP by 1.6%. This will put significant upward pressure on inflation in Western countries. Many major central banks are likely to preemptively raise policy rates, thus curbing the economic rebound.</p><p>But in fact, from an investment perspective, no matter what happens in Ukraine, it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector because:</p><p><b>It can be a good hedge against inflation. Strong global demand should keep prices high, while potentially severe supply disruptions from military action will only drive energy prices further.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A-share center moves down</b></p><p><b>Looking at the Chinese stock market, the U.S. currency tightened and U.S. stocks fell. China's money is loose, but A shares fall even more. What's going on here?</b></p><p>Since January (January 26), the CSI 300 Index has fallen 4.6%. However, institutional people interviewed by the author generally believe that it is recommended to remain calm in February and not rush to increase positions.</p><p>According to AVIC Trust, the economic data in December last year was lower than expected, real estate investment, sales, new construction and other indicators experienced significant negative growth, and consumption growth declined. Facing the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics from January to February, the epidemic prevention and control situation will be more serious, and consumption will be weaker. Real estate is in the off-season, and it is difficult for distressed real estate companies to improve, which continues to drag down the economy. The bright spot of the macro economy is still in foreign trade. In the first quarter, import and export will follow the trend of last year and continue to maintain rapid growth. However, corporate profits lag behind the economic cycle, and the decline in economic growth will lead to the continued decline in corporate profit growth in the first quarter.</p><p>In terms of policy, monetary policy has been significantly loosened. In January, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase rate were lowered by 10BP. In the fourth quarter of last year, monetary easing was a minor fuss, but this year's monetary policy has made a clear turn. However, fiscal efforts have to wait for the \"two sessions\". The fiscal lag leads to the lack of \"focus\" of monetary policy in the first quarter, and there is nowhere to use its strength. In addition, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will start rate hike in March, and rate hike may reach 3-4 times during the year, which will also offset some of the domestic easing effects.</p><p>At present, the incremental funds of A shares are also insufficient. The issuance of Public Offering of Fund has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year, with only 60-70 billion new Public Offering of Fund issued in January. In the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of quantitative products was poor and it was redeemed by investors.<b>In 2021, capital inflows from the north will flow significantly into A-shares, but under the background of the strict supervision of \"fake foreign capital\" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, it is expected that the scale of capital inflows from the north this year will be weaker than last year.</b>With the end of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, the transfer of funds from non-standard assets to the stock market is coming to an end, and the sources of incremental funds in the stock market are reduced.</p><p>Taking the new energy track stocks with a large pullback/retracement recently as an example, investment institutions are currently paying more attention to valuation. For a company with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, it may be reasonable to give a valuation of 40 times, but if it was given 50-60 times, or even hundreds of times before, there must be irrational components, the possibility of subsequent valuation killing will increase. \"As for whether it is worth it now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>, the judgment is not difficult-the current prosperity has not changed. If the valuation falls to 30 times, then you can get 30% of the possible room for making money. If it only returns to 40 times, then the room for buying profits is still limited.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75adecb2c4a2991eb1db80f007a7b5f8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176041035","content_text":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。紧缩风暴来袭鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。美股远未跌完受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”| 纳斯达克100指数他提及，此前奈飞（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；微软的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；特斯拉发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。A股中枢下移转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不值得买，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036298332,"gmtCreate":1647097498484,"gmtModify":1676534194780,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036298332","repostId":"2218249601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218249601","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647046791,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218249601?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 08:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218249601","media":"Wind万得","summary":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will usher in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off the rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but ultimately, the market will recover.\"</p><p>Rate hike is about to \"land its boots\", and shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear picture of expected policy action. forecast.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, the consumer price index (CPI) reached a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly above expectations of 7.8% this year. CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong and high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Fed to also make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that there has been a big swing in interest rate expectations, and it's likely to continue as the data comes out, which could add to volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply on expectations of Fed tightening, while longer-term yields rising less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is viewed as an important indicator. Curve inversion, especially when 2-year or shorter-term U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve could send the economy into recession. Others have offered a more dovish explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting expectations that a swift response from the Fed will help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike is about to \"land its boots\". Will it bring a boosting effect to the global market that has been volatile recently?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said stocks could fall further in the near term. Unlike COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 when governments implemented tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He is also worried that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades will trigger another wave of COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. Bond yields are likely to edge higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so global stocks haven't bottomed out yet and the dollar will rise, he said.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stock markets, especially the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, which means the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds, he said. \"Rising short-term inflation coupled with sanctions will cause great disruption to demand, and falling bond yields will have a boosting effect on U.S. stocks,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-12 08:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will usher in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off the rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but ultimately, the market will recover.\"</p><p>Rate hike is about to \"land its boots\", and shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear picture of expected policy action. forecast.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, the consumer price index (CPI) reached a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly above expectations of 7.8% this year. CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong and high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Fed to also make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that there has been a big swing in interest rate expectations, and it's likely to continue as the data comes out, which could add to volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply on expectations of Fed tightening, while longer-term yields rising less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is viewed as an important indicator. Curve inversion, especially when 2-year or shorter-term U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve could send the economy into recession. Others have offered a more dovish explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting expectations that a swift response from the Fed will help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike is about to \"land its boots\". Will it bring a boosting effect to the global market that has been volatile recently?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said stocks could fall further in the near term. Unlike COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 when governments implemented tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He is also worried that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades will trigger another wave of COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. Bond yields are likely to edge higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so global stocks haven't bottomed out yet and the dollar will rise, he said.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stock markets, especially the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, which means the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds, he said. \"Rising short-term inflation coupled with sanctions will cause great disruption to demand, and falling bond yields will have a boosting effect on U.S. stocks,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218249601","content_text":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待这场波动持续多久，但最终，市场将会复苏。”加息即将“靴子落地”，缩表还需等待观察美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)此前表示，在通胀高企、经济需求强劲和劳动力市场紧张的情况下，他将在3月美联储会议上提议升息25个基点，这为预期的政策行动提供了异常明确的预估。根据美联储首选的指标，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)达到7.9%，创40年来新高，略高于今年7.8%的预期。CPI环比上涨0.8%，高于预期的0.7%。鲍威尔对议员们说，“这是强劲高位的通货膨胀，我们要控制住它，这非常重要，这正是我们要做的。”鲍威尔说，他预计美联储在准备缩减9万亿美元资产组合的计划方面也会取得“良好进展”，但美联储不会在3月15日至16日的会议上敲定这些计划。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)说，关键是利率预期已经出现了大幅波动，而且随着数据的出炉，这种波动可能会持续下去，这可能会加剧利率市场和收益率曲线的波动性。自今年初以来，收益率曲线已明显趋平，短期利率因美联储收紧预期而大幅上升，而较长期收益率的升幅则不那么剧烈。收益率曲线本身就被视为一个重要的指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或较短期美债收益率高于10年期美债收益率时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。一些分析师说，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线迅速趋平可能反映出人们对美联储激进收紧政策可能导致经济陷入衰退的担忧。其他人则给出了一种较为温和的解释，利率的趋平反映出市场预期美联储迅速做出反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需将利率升到令人难以置信的水平。风险情绪会逆转吗?美联储加息即将“靴子落地”，会给近期剧烈波动的全球市场带来提振效应吗?BCA Research的哈瓦尔•乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，股市短期内可能会进一步下跌。与2019年新冠疫情时各国政府实施减税和增加支出不同，这次他们是在制裁俄罗斯，这也将损害其国内经济。他还担心欧洲几十年来最大的难民危机会引发另一波新冠疫情。乔希说，以三个月为基准，能源和食品价格飞涨带来的通货膨胀将抑制经济增长。随着美联储和其他央行做出回应，债券收益率可能会小幅走高，因此他说，全球股市尚未触底，美元将会上涨。但从12个月来看，他预计全球股市，尤其是美国股市将会上涨。他说，美国股市的存续期很长，为30年，这意味着市场的估值应该是美国的利润乘以30年期债券的价格。他表示:“短期通胀升温加上制裁措施，将对需求造成极大破坏，届时，债券收益率下降将为美股带来提振效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPXU":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".DJI":1,"TQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927799234,"gmtCreate":1672584710528,"gmtModify":1676538707528,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927799234","repostId":"1192361274","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052192373,"gmtCreate":1655134034892,"gmtModify":1676535567856,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052192373","repostId":"2243019507","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022783957,"gmtCreate":1653579922979,"gmtModify":1676535308313,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022783957","repostId":"1137501377","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092077416,"gmtCreate":1644502697229,"gmtModify":1676533934134,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092077416","repostId":"2210980598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210980598","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644495276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210980598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 20:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210980598","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b><b>In 2022, the Fed's monetary policy will accelerate its shift to \"data dependence\", but the problem is that in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</b>In the FOMC statement in January, the Federal Reserve mentioned that \"soon\" will be \"suitable\" for rate hike, clearly indicating that rate hike in March is coming. However, regarding the specific policy path, Powell repeatedly emphasized in the question and answer session of the press conference,<b>Officials did not make any decision, and said that the FOMC needs to remain nimble and does not rule out any options.</b></p><p>\"We will make decisions based on the data that will be released next and the evolving outlook,\" Powell said.</p><p><b>This statement creates an uncertain atmosphere for the market:</b>How many times will the Fed rate hike this year? Will there be a sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in previous meetings? Point in time in shrinking balance sheet? These issues remain ambiguous.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Jonathan Pingle pointed out in a recent report that the January FOMC meeting focused on nimble when answering which policy rate path is the most appropriate, which means that the Fed's monetary policy will change from the \"new normal\" to \"nimble\" in 2022. \"flexibility\" and will accelerate the shift to \"data dependence.\"</p><p>This sounds similar to Yellen's emphasis that rate hike will be based on economic data, and it also seems to correspond to an earlier \"discretion\".</p><p>So, how to understand this new \"improvisation\" framework of the Federal Reserve? UBS believes that this time is different from the \"data dependence\" of Yellen's era, so what is the difference? What does it mean for the market?</p><p><h2>The new framework of \"improvising\": the essence is still to maintain discretion</h2>The January meeting largely abandoned forward guidance, apart from saying a rate hike would begin \"soon\".</p><p>Powell first stated at the press conference that he would not rule out the possibility of rate hike at every meeting, throwing out the most serious situation, but then Fed officials delivered speeches one after another, with a more moderate style and room.</p><p>For now, basically all officials have hit back at the March rate hike of 50 basis points, and most officials seem to be hinting at about four rate hike of 25 basis points this year.</p><p>Many officials also expressed<b>Policy will follow data</b>Signal of:</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic initially said that he could rate hike 50 basis points at a time if necessary, but then immediately \"changed his mind\" and said that rate hike's 50 basis points was not his preferred policy action in March; He said in an article in the Financial Times that he wanted three rate hike in 2022,<b>But other possibilities are not ruled out.</b>He also said: \"I think the message the chairman is trying to convey is:<b>We are not on any particular track. The data will tell us what happened.</b>Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashkari said on January 28: \"We hope that price pressures will naturally ease as supply chain issues resolve, which means the Fed has to do less. Now, the committee has signaled that most officials believe there may be three rate hike this year, about 25 basis points each.<b>However, we must see the corresponding data.</b>\"San Francisco Fed President Daly said on January 31:\" A lot of reference is appropriate. Assuming there are 4 rate hike in 2022 and interest rates reach 1.25%, this is quite a tightening, but it is also quite a lot of room left in the system, because the neutral rate is 2.5%, which is still supporting the economy, not causing disruption.<b>I think this balance is the proper way to deal with the uncertainty we face.</b>Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on February 1: \"Can we rate hike 50 basis points at a time? Yes. But should we? I'm not so sure about that right now...<b>If inflation stays where it is now and continues to decline, I don't think it will be a 50 basis point rate hike.</b>UBS believes that,<b>Officials began with quarterly rate hike, sidestepping the inference that the market is rate hike at every meeting, leaving open the option of accelerating or slowing policy later.</b></p><p>The current UBS baseline forecast is that the FOMC will withdraw its easing policy by rate hike of 25 basis points each quarter (March, June, September and December) this year, and start shrinking the balance sheet at the May FOMC meeting (or possibly no later than the July meeting).</p><p>However, the bank believes that,<b>This path will be highly dependent on data, especially inflation data and data reflecting the outlook for inflation. Among them, the inflation data in May will be a watershed affecting the policy direction:</b></p><p>If inflation data unexpectedly continues to rise in the first half of the year (all the way through May), then in the second half of the year, the FOMC may shift from quarterly rate hike to a rhythm of rate hike per meeting, and the June FOMC meeting may start to convey the signal of July rate hike, and then at subsequent meetings, as needed, a consecutive rate hike of 25 basis points. In turn, the FOMC may also pause rate hike if inflation starts to weaken in the second half of the year. This suggests that the new framework retains the \"flexibility\" options the Fed needs in the second half of this year, while, in essence, the Fed is still maintaining discretion.</p><p><h2>It's really different this time?</h2>The Federal Reserve has always avoided using certain fixed rules to restrict its monetary policy decisions. For example, during the Yellen period, in order to maintain discretion, the Federal Reserve often pushed theory first and constantly updated the framework with innovative academic research results.</p><p>In the Powell era, especially after the outbreak of the epidemic, this tendency became more obvious. The media even used \"Powell's Federal Reserve looks like Greenspan's time\" to describe Powell's emphasis on discretion and refusal to be rules and regulations.</p><p>But discretion has its drawbacks. Without a firm commitment, it is harder for the Fed to convince markets that it is serious about achieving its 2% inflation target.</p><p>However, UBS believes that<b>The Fed's \"data dependency\" today is quite different than it was in the previous 20 years</b>, during Yellen's tenure as Fed president, although the Fed's policy had a very clear \"data dependence\", Yellen often said, \"the policy did not follow the preset route\", but the rate hike path at that time basically followed a stable and predictable pattern.</p><p>For example, in June 2015, San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke after the then FOMC meeting and said, \"What does this mean for interest rates? As I said, policy is data-dependent.\" The speech ended with \"I can't tell you the specific rate hike date … but I can't anyway …\".</p><p>But at that meeting, the median Fed forecast for fourth quarter 2015 GDP was 1.8%-2.0%. The final result proved that GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.9%.</p><p>This shows that the Federal Reserve at that time had a large extent of control over economic data, and the Federal Reserve could set the policy path in advance, but this time it was really different.</p><p>Because in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</p><p>Take the most critical inflation data as an example,<b>Professional Forecasters in Recent Philadelphia Fed Survey on Q4 2021 GDP Deflator</b>(a common measure of inflation)<b>The predicted dispersion of, as high as the peak during the financial crisis.</b>This increased uncertainty is reminiscent of the years leading up to the 1990s, the decades before the so-called \"Great Moderation of Inflation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, there are many differences among analysts about future inflation expectations, and the supply chain disruption caused by the epidemic is undoubtedly one of the disruptive factors.</p><p>In addition, some analysts believe that, compared with the flattening of Phillips curve during the \"great easing of inflation\" period (referring to the decline of unemployment rate, which did not bring about the increase of inflation rate), today's economic environment-globalization trend has been reversed in 2008, the downward trend of capital factor prices is facing zero interest rate constraints, the global demographic dividend is drifting away, the burden of an aging society is getting heavier and heavier, and monetary policy has quietly reduced the weight of stabilizing inflation.</p><p>Today's Fed faces greater challenges, with a more uncertain economic outlook and far more volatile macroeconomic data. In the eyes of professional forecasters, even for the past fourth quarter, economic forecasts are very divergent.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes that data dependency may be an escape during the Great Moderation, but<b>Data dependencies in the current context are necessary.</b>Given the widespread uncertainty and data volatility, the FOMC has no choice.</p><p><h2>Policy will run the risk of more instability</h2>Although the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework helps it respond to various possible outcomes in a timely manner, to repeat the previous article, discretion has its shortcomings. For the market, this flexibility also means less predictability, possibly less regularity.</p><p>In addition, if the central bank relies on data, which is more volatile than in recent history, this means that policy is also at risk of more volatile, which also represents another source of macroeconomic volatility.</p><p>And UBS said,<b>Central banks' reliance on data with increased volatility will be part of a new era of macroeconomics.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-10 20:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b><b>In 2022, the Fed's monetary policy will accelerate its shift to \"data dependence\", but the problem is that in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</b>In the FOMC statement in January, the Federal Reserve mentioned that \"soon\" will be \"suitable\" for rate hike, clearly indicating that rate hike in March is coming. However, regarding the specific policy path, Powell repeatedly emphasized in the question and answer session of the press conference,<b>Officials did not make any decision, and said that the FOMC needs to remain nimble and does not rule out any options.</b></p><p>\"We will make decisions based on the data that will be released next and the evolving outlook,\" Powell said.</p><p><b>This statement creates an uncertain atmosphere for the market:</b>How many times will the Fed rate hike this year? Will there be a sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in previous meetings? Point in time in shrinking balance sheet? These issues remain ambiguous.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Jonathan Pingle pointed out in a recent report that the January FOMC meeting focused on nimble when answering which policy rate path is the most appropriate, which means that the Fed's monetary policy will change from the \"new normal\" to \"nimble\" in 2022. \"flexibility\" and will accelerate the shift to \"data dependence.\"</p><p>This sounds similar to Yellen's emphasis that rate hike will be based on economic data, and it also seems to correspond to an earlier \"discretion\".</p><p>So, how to understand this new \"improvisation\" framework of the Federal Reserve? UBS believes that this time is different from the \"data dependence\" of Yellen's era, so what is the difference? What does it mean for the market?</p><p><h2>The new framework of \"improvising\": the essence is still to maintain discretion</h2>The January meeting largely abandoned forward guidance, apart from saying a rate hike would begin \"soon\".</p><p>Powell first stated at the press conference that he would not rule out the possibility of rate hike at every meeting, throwing out the most serious situation, but then Fed officials delivered speeches one after another, with a more moderate style and room.</p><p>For now, basically all officials have hit back at the March rate hike of 50 basis points, and most officials seem to be hinting at about four rate hike of 25 basis points this year.</p><p>Many officials also expressed<b>Policy will follow data</b>Signal of:</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic initially said that he could rate hike 50 basis points at a time if necessary, but then immediately \"changed his mind\" and said that rate hike's 50 basis points was not his preferred policy action in March; He said in an article in the Financial Times that he wanted three rate hike in 2022,<b>But other possibilities are not ruled out.</b>He also said: \"I think the message the chairman is trying to convey is:<b>We are not on any particular track. The data will tell us what happened.</b>Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashkari said on January 28: \"We hope that price pressures will naturally ease as supply chain issues resolve, which means the Fed has to do less. Now, the committee has signaled that most officials believe there may be three rate hike this year, about 25 basis points each.<b>However, we must see the corresponding data.</b>\"San Francisco Fed President Daly said on January 31:\" A lot of reference is appropriate. Assuming there are 4 rate hike in 2022 and interest rates reach 1.25%, this is quite a tightening, but it is also quite a lot of room left in the system, because the neutral rate is 2.5%, which is still supporting the economy, not causing disruption.<b>I think this balance is the proper way to deal with the uncertainty we face.</b>Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on February 1: \"Can we rate hike 50 basis points at a time? Yes. But should we? I'm not so sure about that right now...<b>If inflation stays where it is now and continues to decline, I don't think it will be a 50 basis point rate hike.</b>UBS believes that,<b>Officials began with quarterly rate hike, sidestepping the inference that the market is rate hike at every meeting, leaving open the option of accelerating or slowing policy later.</b></p><p>The current UBS baseline forecast is that the FOMC will withdraw its easing policy by rate hike of 25 basis points each quarter (March, June, September and December) this year, and start shrinking the balance sheet at the May FOMC meeting (or possibly no later than the July meeting).</p><p>However, the bank believes that,<b>This path will be highly dependent on data, especially inflation data and data reflecting the outlook for inflation. Among them, the inflation data in May will be a watershed affecting the policy direction:</b></p><p>If inflation data unexpectedly continues to rise in the first half of the year (all the way through May), then in the second half of the year, the FOMC may shift from quarterly rate hike to a rhythm of rate hike per meeting, and the June FOMC meeting may start to convey the signal of July rate hike, and then at subsequent meetings, as needed, a consecutive rate hike of 25 basis points. In turn, the FOMC may also pause rate hike if inflation starts to weaken in the second half of the year. This suggests that the new framework retains the \"flexibility\" options the Fed needs in the second half of this year, while, in essence, the Fed is still maintaining discretion.</p><p><h2>It's really different this time?</h2>The Federal Reserve has always avoided using certain fixed rules to restrict its monetary policy decisions. For example, during the Yellen period, in order to maintain discretion, the Federal Reserve often pushed theory first and constantly updated the framework with innovative academic research results.</p><p>In the Powell era, especially after the outbreak of the epidemic, this tendency became more obvious. The media even used \"Powell's Federal Reserve looks like Greenspan's time\" to describe Powell's emphasis on discretion and refusal to be rules and regulations.</p><p>But discretion has its drawbacks. Without a firm commitment, it is harder for the Fed to convince markets that it is serious about achieving its 2% inflation target.</p><p>However, UBS believes that<b>The Fed's \"data dependency\" today is quite different than it was in the previous 20 years</b>, during Yellen's tenure as Fed president, although the Fed's policy had a very clear \"data dependence\", Yellen often said, \"the policy did not follow the preset route\", but the rate hike path at that time basically followed a stable and predictable pattern.</p><p>For example, in June 2015, San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke after the then FOMC meeting and said, \"What does this mean for interest rates? As I said, policy is data-dependent.\" The speech ended with \"I can't tell you the specific rate hike date … but I can't anyway …\".</p><p>But at that meeting, the median Fed forecast for fourth quarter 2015 GDP was 1.8%-2.0%. The final result proved that GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.9%.</p><p>This shows that the Federal Reserve at that time had a large extent of control over economic data, and the Federal Reserve could set the policy path in advance, but this time it was really different.</p><p>Because in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</p><p>Take the most critical inflation data as an example,<b>Professional Forecasters in Recent Philadelphia Fed Survey on Q4 2021 GDP Deflator</b>(a common measure of inflation)<b>The predicted dispersion of, as high as the peak during the financial crisis.</b>This increased uncertainty is reminiscent of the years leading up to the 1990s, the decades before the so-called \"Great Moderation of Inflation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, there are many differences among analysts about future inflation expectations, and the supply chain disruption caused by the epidemic is undoubtedly one of the disruptive factors.</p><p>In addition, some analysts believe that, compared with the flattening of Phillips curve during the \"great easing of inflation\" period (referring to the decline of unemployment rate, which did not bring about the increase of inflation rate), today's economic environment-globalization trend has been reversed in 2008, the downward trend of capital factor prices is facing zero interest rate constraints, the global demographic dividend is drifting away, the burden of an aging society is getting heavier and heavier, and monetary policy has quietly reduced the weight of stabilizing inflation.</p><p>Today's Fed faces greater challenges, with a more uncertain economic outlook and far more volatile macroeconomic data. In the eyes of professional forecasters, even for the past fourth quarter, economic forecasts are very divergent.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes that data dependency may be an escape during the Great Moderation, but<b>Data dependencies in the current context are necessary.</b>Given the widespread uncertainty and data volatility, the FOMC has no choice.</p><p><h2>Policy will run the risk of more instability</h2>Although the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework helps it respond to various possible outcomes in a timely manner, to repeat the previous article, discretion has its shortcomings. For the market, this flexibility also means less predictability, possibly less regularity.</p><p>In addition, if the central bank relies on data, which is more volatile than in recent history, this means that policy is also at risk of more volatile, which also represents another source of macroeconomic volatility.</p><p>And UBS said,<b>Central banks' reliance on data with increased volatility will be part of a new era of macroeconomics.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210980598","content_text":"摘要：2022年美联储货币政策将加速转向“数据依赖性”，但问题在于在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。在1月的FOMC声明中，美联储提到“很快”将“适合”加息，清晰地表明3月加息即将到来，不过对于具体的政策路径，鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节多次强调，官员们并未做出任何决定，并表示FOMC需要保持灵活应变（\"nimble\"），不排除任何选择。鲍威尔表示，“我们将根据接下来公布的数据和不断演变的前景去做决定”。这番表述给市场营造了一种不确定的氛围：美联储今年到底会加息几次？前几次会议是否会大幅加息50个基点？缩表的时间点？这些问题仍然不明确。瑞银分析师Jonathan Pingle在最近的报告中指出，1月FOMC会议在回答哪条政策利率路径最为合适时，重点提到了灵活应变（nimble），这意味着2022美联储货币政策从“新常态”转变为“灵活应变”，并将加速转向“数据依赖性”。这听上去与耶伦当年强调加息将基于经济数据的理念似曾相似，也似乎可以对应到更早一点的“自由裁量权”（discretion）。那么，如何理解美联储这种“随机应变”式新框架？瑞银认为这一次与耶伦时期的“数据依赖”不一样，那到底哪儿不一样？对于市场来说意味着什么？“随机应变”式新框架：本质仍是保持自由裁量权除了表示“很快”就开始加息外，1月会议基本放弃了前瞻性指引。鲍威尔先是在发布会上表示不排除每次会议都加息的可能性，将最为严重的情况抛了出来，但随后美联储官员陆续发表讲话，风格又更加温和和留有余地。目前，基本上所有官员都对3月加息50个基点进行了回击，大多数官员似乎都在暗示今年大约将加息4次，每次25个基点。很多官员也表达了政策将遵循数据的信号：亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克一开始表示如有必要可以一次加息50基点，但随后又立马“改口”称，加息50个基点不是他在3月份的首选政策行动；他在英国《金融时报》的一篇文章中表示，希望2022年加息三次，但不排除其他可能性。他还表示：“我认为主席想要传达的信息是：我们没有走上任何特定的轨道。数据会告诉我们发生了什么。”明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里1月28日表示：“我们希望物价压力会随着供应链问题解决而自然得到缓解，这意味着美联储不得不做得更少。现在，委员会已经发出信号，大多数官员认为今年可能会有三次加息，每次大约25个基点。但是，我们必须看到相应的数据。”旧金山联储主席戴利1月31日表示：“多多参考才是合适的。假设2022年加息4次，利率达到1.25%，这是相当大的紧缩，但也是系统中留下的相当大的空间，因为中性利率是2.5%，这仍然在支持经济，而不是造成破坏。我认为这种平衡是应对我们面临的不确定性的恰当方式。”费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克2月1日表示：“我们能一次加息50个基点吗？可以的。但我们应该吗？我现在不太确定这一点……如果通胀保持在现在的水平，并继续下降，我不认为会加息50个基点。”瑞银认为，官员们以季度加息开始，回避了市场每次会议都加息的推断，保留了以后加速或放缓政策的选项。目前瑞银的基线预测是，FOMC将通过今年每个季度（3月、6月、9月和12月）加息25个基点来撤走宽松政策，并在5月的FOMC会议（或可能不迟于7月的会议）上开始缩减资产负债表。然而，该行认为，这条路径将高度依赖于数据，尤其是通胀数据以及反映通胀前景的数据。其中，5月份的通胀数据将是影响政策走向的分水岭：如果上半年（一直到5月）通胀数据出人意料地继续上升，那么在今年下半年，FOMC可能会从季度加息转向每次会议加息的节奏，6月FOMC会议可能会开始传达7月加息的信号，然后在随后的会议上，根据需要，连续加息25个基点。反过来，如果下半年通胀开始走软，FOMC也可能会暂停加息。这表明，新框架保留了美联储今年下半年所需的“灵活应变”的选择权，而从本质上看，美联储仍是在保持自由裁量权。这次真的不一样？美联储一直避免使用某种固定的规则来约束自己的货币政策决策，如在耶伦时期，为了保持自由裁量权，美联储常常推动理论先行，以创新性的学术研究成果来对框架不断更新。到了鲍威尔时代，尤其在疫情爆发后，这样的倾向更加明显。媒体甚至用“鲍威尔的美联储仿佛格林斯潘时的模样”来形容鲍威尔强调自由裁量，拒绝条条框框。但是自由裁量权有其缺点。在没有坚定承诺的情况下，美联储更难让市场相信，其实现2%的通胀目标是认真的。不过，瑞银认为，如今美联储的“数据依赖”与之前20年的情况截然不同，在耶伦作为联储主席的时期，尽管美联储政策有着非常明确的“数据依赖性”，耶伦经常说，“政策并没有按照预先设定的路线走”，但当时的加息路径基本上遵循了一种稳定、可预测的模式。比如2015年6月，旧金山联储主席Williams在当时的FOMC会议后发表讲话说：“这对利率意味着什么？正如我所说的，政策是依赖数据的。”演讲以“我不能告诉你具体加息日期……但无论如何我不能……”结束。但在那次会议上，美联储对2015年第四季度GDP的预测中值为1.8%-2.0%。最终结果证明，四季度GDP为1.9%。这说明，当时的美联储对经济数据很大程度上是有掌控的，美联储是可以预先设定政策路径的，然而这一次真的不一样。因为在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。拿最关键的通胀数据来说，近期费城联储调查的专业预测员对2021年第四季度GDP平减指数（衡量通货膨胀的常用指标）的预测离散度，高达金融危机期间的峰值。这种不确定性的增加让人想起上世纪90年代之前的那些年，也就是所谓的“通胀大缓和”之前的几十年。当下对于未来通胀的预期，分析师存在很多分歧，疫情导致的供应链中断无疑是其中的扰乱因素之一。除此之外，有分析师认为，与“通胀大缓和”时期菲利普斯曲线平坦化（指失业率下降，并没有带来通胀率的上升）相对的是，如今的经济环境——全球化趋势已经在2008年出现逆转，资本要素价格下行面临零利率约束，全球人口红利渐行渐远，老龄化社会的负担越来越重，货币政策也悄然降低了稳通胀的权重，货币当局不仅面临着更复杂的权衡，还需谨慎维护其独立性，这些因素都是呼唤通胀回归和菲利普斯曲线“复活”的力量。今天的美联储面临着更大的挑战，经济前景更加不确定，宏观经济数据的波动性要大得多。在专业预测人士眼中，即使是对已经过去的第四季度，经济预测分歧也非常大。因此，瑞银认为，在“大缓和”时期，数据依赖可能是一种逃避，但当前背景下的数据依赖性是必要的。考虑到广泛的不确定性和数据波动性，FOMC别无选择。政策将有更不稳定的风险虽然美联储“随机应变”式的新框架有助于其及时应对各种可能的结果，但重复一下前文，自由裁量权是有其缺点的，对于市场而言，这种灵活性也意味着更少的可预测性，可能更少的规律性。除此之外，如果央行依赖于数据，而数据相比近代历史更不稳定，这意味着政策也有更不稳定的风险，这也代表着宏观经济波动的另一个来源。而瑞银表示，央行对波动性加剧的数据的依赖，将是宏观经济新时代的一部分。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,".DJI":1,".IXIC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091584405,"gmtCreate":1643900259622,"gmtModify":1676533869437,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091584405","repostId":"2208360102","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2208360102","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1643859305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2208360102?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-03 11:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to \"buy on dips\". What is the basis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208360102","media":"Wind万得","summary":"如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The S&P500 entered correction territory last week as the Federal Reserve'S policy adjustment caused violent market shock, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) believes that this pullback signals a buying opportunity for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Wall Street firm said that if history is any reference, a correction rarely turns into a bear market unless the economy enters a recession. \"From a historical perspective, S&P 500 revisions are usually good buying opportunities,\" David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in a note. \"If the economy is not entering a recession, a market correction is usually a good buying opportunity.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve said last week it would raise interest rates soon, the first time in more than three years, as part of a sweeping tightening of historically accommodative monetary policy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Powell was the toughest since he became chairman. Powell reiterated that the current tightening cycle is different from the previous one, with a strong labor market, a strong economy and above-target inflation.</p><p>Feroli believes: \"Although Powell has not yet made a clear statement, he made it clear that continuous rate hike in consecutive meetings is a possibility, and this is also a risk we have been paying attention to.\"</p><p>\"The Fed is now chasing inflation and in a panic,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, who was more hawkish in his comments than the initial statement. It affirms the Fed's stance.</p><p>The shift has triggered a significant increase in volatility on Wall Street recently, with investors struggling to reprice assets based on interest rate risk. The S&P 500 index fell about 7% in January, down 8% from its record high at the beginning of the month; It was also the worst month since March 2020.</p><p>Tech stocks led the decline in the new year as investors dumped high and sometimes unprofitable stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 12% in January and is down 15% from its all-time high. Still, Goldman notes that a 10% adjustment is not unusual in a given calendar year.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs, since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a median peak-to-trough decline of 13% in a calendar year, with corrections of more than 10% in 62% of years. Goldman Sachs said that since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen 33 pullbacks of 10% or more, with the midpoint lasting about five months, with a decline of 18% from high to trough.</p><p>If investors bought the S&P 500 10% below its high, regardless of whether it was the rock bottom at that time, the average investor return was 15% over the subsequent 12 months, the company said. Goldman Sachs said that in 21 non-recession adjustments, the S&P 500 usually falls 15%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>About halfway through earnings season, the number of companies with sales and profits beating Wall Street expectations is higher than average, albeit lower than levels seen early in the recovery, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank.</p><p>However, Maneesh Deshpande, managing director of Barclays Capital, said that corporate performance has been good, but the considerations include not only the Fed's changes in monetary policy, but also the Fed's rate hike in a seemingly weak economy. \"Both of those things are a problem now,\" he said. \"This time, the earnings may not save the day.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to \"buy on dips\". What is the basis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to \"buy on dips\". What is the basis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-03 11:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The S&P500 entered correction territory last week as the Federal Reserve'S policy adjustment caused violent market shock, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) believes that this pullback signals a buying opportunity for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Wall Street firm said that if history is any reference, a correction rarely turns into a bear market unless the economy enters a recession. \"From a historical perspective, S&P 500 revisions are usually good buying opportunities,\" David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in a note. \"If the economy is not entering a recession, a market correction is usually a good buying opportunity.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve said last week it would raise interest rates soon, the first time in more than three years, as part of a sweeping tightening of historically accommodative monetary policy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Powell was the toughest since he became chairman. Powell reiterated that the current tightening cycle is different from the previous one, with a strong labor market, a strong economy and above-target inflation.</p><p>Feroli believes: \"Although Powell has not yet made a clear statement, he made it clear that continuous rate hike in consecutive meetings is a possibility, and this is also a risk we have been paying attention to.\"</p><p>\"The Fed is now chasing inflation and in a panic,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, who was more hawkish in his comments than the initial statement. It affirms the Fed's stance.</p><p>The shift has triggered a significant increase in volatility on Wall Street recently, with investors struggling to reprice assets based on interest rate risk. The S&P 500 index fell about 7% in January, down 8% from its record high at the beginning of the month; It was also the worst month since March 2020.</p><p>Tech stocks led the decline in the new year as investors dumped high and sometimes unprofitable stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 12% in January and is down 15% from its all-time high. Still, Goldman notes that a 10% adjustment is not unusual in a given calendar year.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs, since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a median peak-to-trough decline of 13% in a calendar year, with corrections of more than 10% in 62% of years. Goldman Sachs said that since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen 33 pullbacks of 10% or more, with the midpoint lasting about five months, with a decline of 18% from high to trough.</p><p>If investors bought the S&P 500 10% below its high, regardless of whether it was the rock bottom at that time, the average investor return was 15% over the subsequent 12 months, the company said. Goldman Sachs said that in 21 non-recession adjustments, the S&P 500 usually falls 15%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>About halfway through earnings season, the number of companies with sales and profits beating Wall Street expectations is higher than average, albeit lower than levels seen early in the recovery, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank.</p><p>However, Maneesh Deshpande, managing director of Barclays Capital, said that corporate performance has been good, but the considerations include not only the Fed's changes in monetary policy, but also the Fed's rate hike in a seemingly weak economy. \"Both of those things are a problem now,\" he said. \"This time, the earnings may not save the day.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208360102","content_text":"标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上周一度进入回调区间，因美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策调整造成市场剧烈震荡，但高盛(Goldman Sachs)认为，此次回落标志着投资者有买入机会。这家华尔街公司说，如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。“从历史角度看，标普500指数修正通常是良好的买入机会，”高盛美国股市策略主管David Kostin在报告中称。“如果经济没有进入衰退，市场调整通常是好的买入机会。”美联储上周表示，将很快提高利率，这是三年多来的首次，是历来宽松的货币政策全面收紧的一部分。摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示，鲍威尔是担任主席以来最强硬的一次。鲍威尔重申，当前的紧缩周期与上一个周期不同，劳动力市场强劲，经济强劲，通胀高于目标。Feroli认为：“虽然鲍威尔仍未明确表态，但他明确表示，在连续的会议上不断加息是一种可能，这也是我们一直在关注的风险。”均富(Grant Thornton)首席经济学家黛安斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示：“美联储现在正在追逐通胀，陷入了恐慌。”他的评论比最初的声明更加强硬。它肯定了美联储的立场。这一转变引发了华尔街最近波动显著增加，投资者艰难地根据利率风险对资产进行重新定价。标准普尔500指数1月下跌了约7%，较当月初的纪录高点下跌了8%；这也是自2020年3月以来最糟糕的一个月。在新的一年里，科技股领跌，投资者纷纷抛售高企、有时无利可图的股票。纳斯达克综合指数1月份下跌了约12%，较历史高点下跌了15%。不过，高盛指出，在一个给定的日历年里，10%的调整并不罕见。据高盛的数据，自1928年以来，标准普尔500指数经历了一个日历年中值13%的从高峰到低谷的下跌，62%的年份中有超过10%的修正。高盛说，自1950年以来，标普500指数已经出现了33次10%或以上的回调，中间值持续了约五个月，其中从高点到谷底的跌幅为18%。该公司表示，如果投资者在比高点低10%的水平买入标准普尔500指数，无论当时是否是谷底，那么在随后的12个月里，投资者的平均回报率为15%。高盛说，在21次非衰退调整中，标普500指数通常下跌15%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的一项分析显示，在财报季约过半之际，销售和利润超过华尔街预期的公司数量高于平均水平，尽管低于复苏初期的水平。不过巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)董事总经理Maneesh Deshpande表示，企业业绩一直不错，但考虑因素不仅包括美联储改变货币政策，还包括美联储在看似疲弱的经济中加息。“这两件事现在都是个问题，”他说。“这一次，收益可能无法挽救局面。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937627260,"gmtCreate":1663426920450,"gmtModify":1676537269149,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937627260","repostId":"1129633132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129633132","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663378125,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129633132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129633132","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.</li><li>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.</li><li>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.</li><li>How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?</li><li>Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f531f7b392a181968ec72c4a8f89f8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>The Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by &#34;mining&#34;. The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new &#34;proof-of-stake&#34; approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.</p><p><b>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming &#34;mining&#34;</b></p><p>The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872c823bfeb3e06182d2d3f6ab87879\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Ethereum.org</span></p><p>Mining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.</p><p>In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.</p><p>Some miners may go to work on a &#34;hard fork&#34; of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it&#39;s unclear whether mining this will be profitable.</p><p>Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.</p><p><b>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales</b></p><p>Following Nvidia&#39;s revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.</p><p>The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.</p><p>However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe36f2d53f47c0d7e5cdf964d09c67fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BinInfoCharts</span></p><p>This implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.</p><p>This turned out to account very well for Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia&#39;s Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8223bcd7d3f44c30f5c60970c616fe0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>Note that the revenue impact doesn&#39;t only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.</p><p><b>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia&#39;s sales will be, at best, ugly</b></p><p>The model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it&#39;s not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.</p><p>If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia&#39;s RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00465fed542c67659f55786fcdf366b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>The model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.</p><p>This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn&#39;t absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.</p><p>As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren&#39;t comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0a909d1edae7870adea14e3f987d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>So the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won&#39;t fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia&#39;s crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum&#39;s mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.</p><p><b>How will the Merge affect Nvidia&#39;s expected RTX 40 series launch?</b></p><p>Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5990337b62c49447e21da39a199e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia</span></p><p>Various tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.</p><p>The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It&#39;s not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.</p><p>Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.</p><p>Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.</p><p>Unfortunately, I don&#39;t have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD&#39;s next-generation GPUs have only been &#34;teased&#34; but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.</p><p>The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.</p><p>Since<i>none</i>of the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.</p><p>Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.</p><p>Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.</p><p><b>Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</b></p><p>Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?</p><p>When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.</p><p>If Nvidia really wasn&#39;t accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.</p><p>In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I&#39;m assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.</p><p>Despite this, I&#39;m still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia&#39;s next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.</p><p>Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia&#39;s ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8026f845d3af92219bdc2bb1bc67be19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>According to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia&#39;s future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.</p><p>Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I&#39;m pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I&#39;m waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia&#39;s price even lower.</p><p>Also, I&#39;m waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 09:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129633132","content_text":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by \"mining\". The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new \"proof-of-stake\" approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming \"mining\"The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:Ethereum.orgMining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.Some miners may go to work on a \"hard fork\" of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it's unclear whether mining this will be profitable.Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card salesFollowing Nvidia's revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:BinInfoChartsThis implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.This turned out to account very well for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia's Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:Mark HibbenNote that the revenue impact doesn't only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia's sales will be, at best, uglyThe model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it's not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia's RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:Mark HibbenThe model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn't absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren't comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:Mark HibbenSo the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won't fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia's crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum's mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.How will the Merge affect Nvidia's expected RTX 40 series launch?Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:NvidiaVarious tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It's not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.Unfortunately, I don't have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD's next-generation GPUs have only been \"teased\" but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.Sincenoneof the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.If Nvidia really wasn't accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I'm assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.Despite this, I'm still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia's next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia's ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:Mark HibbenAccording to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia's future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I'm pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I'm waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia's price even lower.Also, I'm waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019158814,"gmtCreate":1648563118186,"gmtModify":1676534354558,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019158814","repostId":"2222916938","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035751472,"gmtCreate":1647699724057,"gmtModify":1676534259279,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035751472","repostId":"2220670637","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220670637","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647671973,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220670637?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-19 14:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of Great Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220670637","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett认为，美股反弹不过是熊市的“暂时停火”，“衰退冲击”即将开始。如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦？1970s大通胀时代下的资产轮动或许能够提供借鉴。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Last week, the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed, but U.S. stocks rebounded sharply.</p><p>In this regard, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, known as the \"most pessimistic analyst on Wall Street\", believes that,<b>This rally is nothing more than a \"temporary ceasefire\" in the bear market, and the \"recession shock\" is about to begin.</b></p><p>Hartnett explained that the historic short squeeze largely contributed to the widespread melting of the market:</p><p>This is nothing more than a \"bear market ceasefire rally\" as the world continues to sink into the purgatory of stagflation,<b>The real bear market won't start until the recession begins, sometime in the second half of 2022.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada7b4acd0ad022755f738923474559d\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Hartnett believes that the long-term lows of interest rates in the 2020s superimposed on inflation mean a rapid and volatile boom-to-bust economic and investment cycle.</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, Hartnett review looked at asset rotation in the era of great inflation in the 1970s.</p><p><b>At the beginning of this period, the market was initially bullish on real assets, commodities, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities(TIPS) (TIPS), small-cap value stocks, and emerging markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>However, just a few years later, during the great stagflation shock of 1973/4, only commodities remained strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6139b3756e493bf595fa37b38c689e43\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>By 1974-1981, when it was time to buy small-cap value stocks and real estate, commodities were still doing well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6e7a32e544d5a658a3345fde0645e8\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>What happens next? It will depend on whether the Fed has the courage to raise interest rates to 20% in the short term, as Volcker did in 1981, even if it means the collapse of risky assets.</p><p>Hartnett also gave suggestions on how to hedge against the pain that the market may face next:</p><p>The best recession hedge is betting on a'steepening yield curve 'The best stagflation hedge is betting on a falling dollar The best soft landing hedge is betting on non-U.S. stocks<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca5a47a33d55a24968d3f1db0ba015a\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of Great Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of Great Inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-19 14:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Last week, the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed, but U.S. stocks rebounded sharply.</p><p>In this regard, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, known as the \"most pessimistic analyst on Wall Street\", believes that,<b>This rally is nothing more than a \"temporary ceasefire\" in the bear market, and the \"recession shock\" is about to begin.</b></p><p>Hartnett explained that the historic short squeeze largely contributed to the widespread melting of the market:</p><p>This is nothing more than a \"bear market ceasefire rally\" as the world continues to sink into the purgatory of stagflation,<b>The real bear market won't start until the recession begins, sometime in the second half of 2022.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada7b4acd0ad022755f738923474559d\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Hartnett believes that the long-term lows of interest rates in the 2020s superimposed on inflation mean a rapid and volatile boom-to-bust economic and investment cycle.</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, Hartnett review looked at asset rotation in the era of great inflation in the 1970s.</p><p><b>At the beginning of this period, the market was initially bullish on real assets, commodities, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities(TIPS) (TIPS), small-cap value stocks, and emerging markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>However, just a few years later, during the great stagflation shock of 1973/4, only commodities remained strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6139b3756e493bf595fa37b38c689e43\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>By 1974-1981, when it was time to buy small-cap value stocks and real estate, commodities were still doing well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6e7a32e544d5a658a3345fde0645e8\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>What happens next? It will depend on whether the Fed has the courage to raise interest rates to 20% in the short term, as Volcker did in 1981, even if it means the collapse of risky assets.</p><p>Hartnett also gave suggestions on how to hedge against the pain that the market may face next:</p><p>The best recession hedge is betting on a'steepening yield curve 'The best stagflation hedge is betting on a falling dollar The best soft landing hedge is betting on non-U.S. stocks<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca5a47a33d55a24968d3f1db0ba015a\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654678\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","TIPS":"Tianrong Internet Products and Services, Inc.","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654678","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220670637","content_text":"上周，美联储加息落地，美股却大幅反弹。对此，有“华尔街最悲观分析师”之称的美银策略师Michael Hartnett认为，这场反弹不过是熊市的“暂时停火”，“衰退冲击”即将开始。Hartnett解释道，历史性的逼空在很大程度上促成了市场的大范围融涨：这不过是一场“熊市停火反弹”（\"bear market ceasefire rally\" ），因为世界继续陷入滞胀的炼狱，真正的熊市要到衰退开始时才会开始，时间是2022年下半年的某个时候。Hartnett认为，2020年代利率的长期低点叠加着通胀，意味着快速且不稳定的从繁荣到萧条的经济和投资周期。以史为鉴，Hartnett复盘了上世纪七十年代大通胀时代下的资产轮动。在这个时期的初期，市场最初是看涨实物资产、大宗商品、通货膨胀保值债券(TIPS)、小盘价值股和新兴市场。然而，短短几年之后，在1973/4年的大滞胀冲击中，只有大宗商品持续坚挺。到1974年至1981年，就到了买进小盘价值股、房地产的时候，此时大宗商品依然表现不错。接下来会发生什么？这将取决于美联储是否有勇气像1981年沃尔克那样，在短期内将利率提高到20%，即使这也意味着风险资产的崩溃。对于如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦，Hartnett也给出了建议：最好的衰退对冲是押注“收益率曲线变陡”最好的滞胀对冲是押注美元贬值最好的软着陆对冲是押注非美国股票","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":0.85,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"IVV":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"OEX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"TIPS":1,"ESmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033682954,"gmtCreate":1646267091337,"gmtModify":1676534110039,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033682954","repostId":"1102002059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102002059","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646264963,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102002059?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-03 07:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102002059","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"俄乌即将举行第二轮会谈。随着鲍威尔几乎消除3月货币政策不确定性，美国三大指数集体走高，截至发布会结束标普和道指涨幅均达到2%。官员们表示，由于通胀压力居高不下，他们料将进一步提高借贷成本，但不会减持国债。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 1% overnight; ② Energy stocks and large technology stocks rose collectively; ③ European natural gas hit a record high in intraday trading, once soaring by 60%; ④ Key points of Powell's overnight testimony: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March. Overseas Market</p><p>1. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose by more than 1%! Energy Tech Stocks Higher</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he supported a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, dispelling market concerns about the Fed's aggressive rate hike. The Federal Reserve Beige Book reported that U.S. economic activity expanded at a moderate to moderate pace. Russia and Ukraine are about to hold the second round of talks. As of the close, Nathan rose 1.62%, the Dow rose 1.79%, and the S&P rose 1.86%.</p><p>Energy stocks rose collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up more than 3%. Tech stocks are higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Rose more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Up more than 8%</p><p>2. Popular gains and losses are mixed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell nearly 11%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 1.41%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Down 1.96%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 2.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 3.33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 4.34%, Keike fell 10.96%, and Weibo rose 2.01%.</p><p>China Tourism, Macau Gaming and other sectors rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">Sands Group</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Resorts Entertainment</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>Up more than 8%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed up across the board<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>Index rose 1.37%</p><p>European stocks generally rose, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.73%, France's CAC40 index rose 1.59%, and the UK<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It rose 1.37%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose 1.43%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil exceeded $110, hitting the highest closing price since May 2011</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices recorded a third straight session of gains on Wednesday and hit their highest close in more than a decade. The progress situation between Russia and Ukraine has not yet seen signs of easing, causing the market to worry that global crude oil supply may be disrupted.</p><p>Finally, WTI for April delivery rose $7.19, or nearly 7%, to settle at $110.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday. This is the highest closing price for a front-month contract since May 2011, according to FactSet agency data.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed down 1.1% and silver fell 1.4%</p><p>The news that Russia and Ukraine are preparing to resume negotiations temporarily reduced the demand for safe havens. According to CME's Fed Watch tool, the market now expects the Fed to almost certainly have a 25 basis point rate hike, with a 3.7% chance of a 50 basis point gain.</p><p>In the end, the price of gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $21.50, or 1.1%, to close at $1,922.30 an ounce. May silver futures fell 35 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $25.19 an ounce.</p><p>6. Going out of winter does not mean that the energy crisis is over: European natural gas hit a record high and once soared by 60%</p><p>On Wednesday (March 2) local time, European natural gas prices broke through record highs during the session, and traders were worried that the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might lead to disruptions in natural gas supplies. The Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures price once jumped to 194 euros (about 215 US dollars) per megawatt hour, an increase of 60% from Tuesday's closing price and twice last Friday's closing price.</p><p>Alex Froley, a market analyst at ICIS in the UK, said that the natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe is proceeding normally, but many uncertainties worry traders and investors.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Read the key points of Powell's overnight testimony in one article: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March</p><p>On March 2, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the House Financial Services Committee to provide testimony for the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report and accept questions from members. As Powell almost eliminated the uncertainty of monetary policy in March, the three major U.S. indexes collectively rose. As of the end of the press conference, the S&P and Dow both rose by 2%.</p><p>Powell said that he still supports the 25 basis point rate hike plan in March, and expects to make progress on the issue of shrinking the balance sheet, but will not finalize the matter. At the same time, Powell also emphasized that the current Fed's expectation is that inflation will peak and fall this year. If inflation continues to be higher than this target, the Fed is also ready to rate hike in a more aggressive manner in one or more future meetings.</p><p>2. The White House announces details of the latest sanctions against Russia and Belarus</p><p>On March 2, local time, the White House announced the details of a series of latest economic sanctions against Russia and Belarus, including the implementation of export control policies on Belarus to prevent technological software and technology from flowing into Russia through Belarus. The White House said the move would \"severely limit the ability of Russia and Belarus to obtain the materials needed (for military operations against Ukraine).\"</p><p>3. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine calling for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine</p><p>The emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine jointly submitted by more than 90 countries including Ukraine. In addition to requiring Russia to \"immediately, completely and unconditionally\" withdraw its troops from Ukraine, this resolution also adds relevant provisions against Belarus. As the resolution of the United Nations General Assembly is not legally binding on Member States except for some projects involving the operation of the United Nations itself, the implementation of this resolution remains to be seen.</p><p>4. ADP data shows that U.S. companies added more jobs than expected in February</p><p>U.S. ADP employment increased by 475,000 in February, compared with an estimate of an increase of 388,000, and a decrease of 301,000 in the previous value.</p><p>5. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Inflation is fiercer than a tiger, and the economy expanded moderately from January to February</p><p>Federal Reserve State of the Economy Beige Book noted that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate to moderate pace since mid-January. Businesses report that prices are expected to rise in the coming months, with rising costs and hiring difficulties persisting.</p><p>6. The Bank of Canada issued rate hike as scheduled and hinted that it would continue to raise interest rates. shrinking balance sheet has not yet been launched</p><p>Faced with inflation at a 30-year high, the Bank of Canada announced a rate hike of 25 basis points and hinted that it would raise interest rates further.</p><p>Central Bank Governor Tiff Macklem and other officials decided to raise the overnight benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, largely in line with market expectations. Officials said they expected to further raise borrowing costs as inflationary pressures remained high, but would not reduce their holdings of Treasury Bond.</p><p>This is the first Canadian rate hike since 2018, and some expect it to be one of the fastest-paced rate hike cycles since the bank began implementing inflation targeting three years ago. The market is betting that the policy rate will hit a maximum of 1% by June and is expected to reach 1.75% by this time next year.</p><p>7. OPEC + agrees to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in April</p><p>OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in April according to the existing plan, and the next OPEC meeting will be held on March 31.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Information Agency: U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week</p><p>The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 2.597 million barrels in the week of February 25 and are expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.514 million barrels in the previous week. In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week.</p><p>9. The United States implements technology export controls on the Russian oil refining industry</p><p>The White House said that the United States will impose export controls on Russia's oil refining industry, which is an important source of revenue to support the Russian military. By imposing export controls on oil and gas extraction equipment, the U.S. Department of Commerce will impose restrictions on the export of technology that will support Russia's refining capacity in the long run.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216170339\" target=\"_blank\">Apple will hold a new product launch conference on March 9. Is the new iPhone SE coming?</a></p><p>In the early morning of March 3, Beijing time, Apple issued an invitation letter, officially announcing that it will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>A new product launch conference was held at 10 a.m. on March 8th and 2 a.m. on March 9th, Beijing time. The theme of this launch conference was Peek performance, and the Chinese theme was high-energy delivery.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216796531\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla increases investment in Australian lithium mines, supplying 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate in the next four years</a></p><p>Australian lithium miner Core Lithium announced on Wednesday that it has reached a supply agreement with Tesla to supply Tesla with up to 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate within four years.</p><p>Core Lithium said the supply program to Tesla is expected to begin in the second half of 2023. Currently, automakers around the world are racing to secure the supply of parts used to make electric vehicles.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216750411\" target=\"_blank\">Ford will operate electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses separately to maximize profits from electric vehicle business</a></p><p>According to Reuters, three people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>A restructuring plan will be announced on Wednesday, under which its electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses will be operated separately, a move aimed at maximizing profits in the electric vehicle business and growing at a faster pace. Ford will appoint executives to lead each business, which will have separate names, and Ford will also outline updated margin targets for the company as a whole. Ford's idea is to eventually report the results of its electric vehicle and diesel locomotive businesses separately, one source said.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216812209\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix announces € 65 m acquisition of Finnish game developer Next Games</a></p><p>According to news on March 2, Netflix announced that it has reached a merger agreement to acquire Finnish game developer Next Games. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2022. Under the agreement, Netflix is close to launching a takeover offer to acquire all of Next Games' issued and outstanding shares.</p><p>Under the offer, Next Games shareholders will receive € 2. 10 per share of Next Games in cash for a total value of approximately € 65 million. The board of directors of Next Games unanimously decided to recommend that shareholders accept the tender offer.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216105870\" target=\"_blank\">Snowflake's revenue growth slows, falls more than 22% after hours</a></p><p>Snowflake's total revenue in the fourth quarter was US $383.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 101%; The net loss was US $132.2 million, narrowing from the net loss of US $198.9 million in the same period last year, and Snowflake plunged 22% after hours.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-03 07:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 1% overnight; ② Energy stocks and large technology stocks rose collectively; ③ European natural gas hit a record high in intraday trading, once soaring by 60%; ④ Key points of Powell's overnight testimony: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March. Overseas Market</p><p>1. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose by more than 1%! Energy Tech Stocks Higher</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he supported a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, dispelling market concerns about the Fed's aggressive rate hike. The Federal Reserve Beige Book reported that U.S. economic activity expanded at a moderate to moderate pace. Russia and Ukraine are about to hold the second round of talks. As of the close, Nathan rose 1.62%, the Dow rose 1.79%, and the S&P rose 1.86%.</p><p>Energy stocks rose collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up more than 3%. Tech stocks are higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Rose more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Up more than 8%</p><p>2. Popular gains and losses are mixed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell nearly 11%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 1.41%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Down 1.96%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 2.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 3.33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 4.34%, Keike fell 10.96%, and Weibo rose 2.01%.</p><p>China Tourism, Macau Gaming and other sectors rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">Sands Group</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Resorts Entertainment</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>Up more than 8%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed up across the board<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>Index rose 1.37%</p><p>European stocks generally rose, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.73%, France's CAC40 index rose 1.59%, and the UK<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It rose 1.37%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose 1.43%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil exceeded $110, hitting the highest closing price since May 2011</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices recorded a third straight session of gains on Wednesday and hit their highest close in more than a decade. The progress situation between Russia and Ukraine has not yet seen signs of easing, causing the market to worry that global crude oil supply may be disrupted.</p><p>Finally, WTI for April delivery rose $7.19, or nearly 7%, to settle at $110.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday. This is the highest closing price for a front-month contract since May 2011, according to FactSet agency data.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed down 1.1% and silver fell 1.4%</p><p>The news that Russia and Ukraine are preparing to resume negotiations temporarily reduced the demand for safe havens. According to CME's Fed Watch tool, the market now expects the Fed to almost certainly have a 25 basis point rate hike, with a 3.7% chance of a 50 basis point gain.</p><p>In the end, the price of gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $21.50, or 1.1%, to close at $1,922.30 an ounce. May silver futures fell 35 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $25.19 an ounce.</p><p>6. Going out of winter does not mean that the energy crisis is over: European natural gas hit a record high and once soared by 60%</p><p>On Wednesday (March 2) local time, European natural gas prices broke through record highs during the session, and traders were worried that the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might lead to disruptions in natural gas supplies. The Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures price once jumped to 194 euros (about 215 US dollars) per megawatt hour, an increase of 60% from Tuesday's closing price and twice last Friday's closing price.</p><p>Alex Froley, a market analyst at ICIS in the UK, said that the natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe is proceeding normally, but many uncertainties worry traders and investors.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Read the key points of Powell's overnight testimony in one article: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March</p><p>On March 2, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the House Financial Services Committee to provide testimony for the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report and accept questions from members. As Powell almost eliminated the uncertainty of monetary policy in March, the three major U.S. indexes collectively rose. As of the end of the press conference, the S&P and Dow both rose by 2%.</p><p>Powell said that he still supports the 25 basis point rate hike plan in March, and expects to make progress on the issue of shrinking the balance sheet, but will not finalize the matter. At the same time, Powell also emphasized that the current Fed's expectation is that inflation will peak and fall this year. If inflation continues to be higher than this target, the Fed is also ready to rate hike in a more aggressive manner in one or more future meetings.</p><p>2. The White House announces details of the latest sanctions against Russia and Belarus</p><p>On March 2, local time, the White House announced the details of a series of latest economic sanctions against Russia and Belarus, including the implementation of export control policies on Belarus to prevent technological software and technology from flowing into Russia through Belarus. The White House said the move would \"severely limit the ability of Russia and Belarus to obtain the materials needed (for military operations against Ukraine).\"</p><p>3. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine calling for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine</p><p>The emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine jointly submitted by more than 90 countries including Ukraine. In addition to requiring Russia to \"immediately, completely and unconditionally\" withdraw its troops from Ukraine, this resolution also adds relevant provisions against Belarus. As the resolution of the United Nations General Assembly is not legally binding on Member States except for some projects involving the operation of the United Nations itself, the implementation of this resolution remains to be seen.</p><p>4. ADP data shows that U.S. companies added more jobs than expected in February</p><p>U.S. ADP employment increased by 475,000 in February, compared with an estimate of an increase of 388,000, and a decrease of 301,000 in the previous value.</p><p>5. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Inflation is fiercer than a tiger, and the economy expanded moderately from January to February</p><p>Federal Reserve State of the Economy Beige Book noted that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate to moderate pace since mid-January. Businesses report that prices are expected to rise in the coming months, with rising costs and hiring difficulties persisting.</p><p>6. The Bank of Canada issued rate hike as scheduled and hinted that it would continue to raise interest rates. shrinking balance sheet has not yet been launched</p><p>Faced with inflation at a 30-year high, the Bank of Canada announced a rate hike of 25 basis points and hinted that it would raise interest rates further.</p><p>Central Bank Governor Tiff Macklem and other officials decided to raise the overnight benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, largely in line with market expectations. Officials said they expected to further raise borrowing costs as inflationary pressures remained high, but would not reduce their holdings of Treasury Bond.</p><p>This is the first Canadian rate hike since 2018, and some expect it to be one of the fastest-paced rate hike cycles since the bank began implementing inflation targeting three years ago. The market is betting that the policy rate will hit a maximum of 1% by June and is expected to reach 1.75% by this time next year.</p><p>7. OPEC + agrees to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in April</p><p>OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in April according to the existing plan, and the next OPEC meeting will be held on March 31.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Information Agency: U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week</p><p>The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 2.597 million barrels in the week of February 25 and are expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.514 million barrels in the previous week. In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week.</p><p>9. The United States implements technology export controls on the Russian oil refining industry</p><p>The White House said that the United States will impose export controls on Russia's oil refining industry, which is an important source of revenue to support the Russian military. By imposing export controls on oil and gas extraction equipment, the U.S. Department of Commerce will impose restrictions on the export of technology that will support Russia's refining capacity in the long run.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216170339\" target=\"_blank\">Apple will hold a new product launch conference on March 9. Is the new iPhone SE coming?</a></p><p>In the early morning of March 3, Beijing time, Apple issued an invitation letter, officially announcing that it will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>A new product launch conference was held at 10 a.m. on March 8th and 2 a.m. on March 9th, Beijing time. The theme of this launch conference was Peek performance, and the Chinese theme was high-energy delivery.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216796531\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla increases investment in Australian lithium mines, supplying 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate in the next four years</a></p><p>Australian lithium miner Core Lithium announced on Wednesday that it has reached a supply agreement with Tesla to supply Tesla with up to 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate within four years.</p><p>Core Lithium said the supply program to Tesla is expected to begin in the second half of 2023. Currently, automakers around the world are racing to secure the supply of parts used to make electric vehicles.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216750411\" target=\"_blank\">Ford will operate electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses separately to maximize profits from electric vehicle business</a></p><p>According to Reuters, three people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>A restructuring plan will be announced on Wednesday, under which its electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses will be operated separately, a move aimed at maximizing profits in the electric vehicle business and growing at a faster pace. Ford will appoint executives to lead each business, which will have separate names, and Ford will also outline updated margin targets for the company as a whole. Ford's idea is to eventually report the results of its electric vehicle and diesel locomotive businesses separately, one source said.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216812209\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix announces € 65 m acquisition of Finnish game developer Next Games</a></p><p>According to news on March 2, Netflix announced that it has reached a merger agreement to acquire Finnish game developer Next Games. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2022. Under the agreement, Netflix is close to launching a takeover offer to acquire all of Next Games' issued and outstanding shares.</p><p>Under the offer, Next Games shareholders will receive € 2. 10 per share of Next Games in cash for a total value of approximately € 65 million. The board of directors of Next Games unanimously decided to recommend that shareholders accept the tender offer.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216105870\" target=\"_blank\">Snowflake's revenue growth slows, falls more than 22% after hours</a></p><p>Snowflake's total revenue in the fourth quarter was US $383.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 101%; The net loss was US $132.2 million, narrowing from the net loss of US $198.9 million in the same period last year, and Snowflake plunged 22% after hours.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","BK4566":"资本集团",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","AAPL":"苹果","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102002059","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股三大指数均涨超1%；②能源股、大型科技股集体上涨；③欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高，一度飙升60%；④鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点。海外市场1、美三大股指集体涨超1%！能源科技股走高美股周三大幅收高。美联储主席鲍威尔称支持在3月会议上加息25个基点，打消了市场对美联储激进加息的担忧。联储褐皮书报告称美国经济活动以适度至温和的步伐扩张。俄乌即将举行第二轮会谈。截至收盘，纳涨1.62%，道指涨1.79%，标普涨1.86%。能源股集体上涨，斯伦贝谢涨超4%，西方石油涨超3%。科技股走高，苹果涨超2%，美光科技涨超8%2、热门中概涨跌互现 贝壳跌近11%热门中概股涨跌不一，网易跌1.19%，百度跌1.41%，阿里巴巴跌1.56%，滴滴跌1.96%，京东跌2.06%，哔哩哔哩跌3.33%，拼多多跌4.34%，贝壳跌10.96%，微博涨2.01%。中概旅游、澳门博彩等板块上扬，金沙集团涨超10%，新濠博亚娱乐涨超9%，携程网涨超8%。3、欧股全线收涨 英国富时100指数涨1.37%欧股普涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.73%，法国CAC40指数涨1.59%，英国富时100指数涨1.37%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.43%。4、美国WTI原油突破110美元 创2011年5月以来最高收盘价美国原油期货价格周三录得连续第三个交易日上涨，并创10多年来的最高收盘价。俄乌进展局势尚未看到缓解迹象，令市场担心全球原油供应可能受到干扰。最终，周四纽约商品交易所4月交割的WTI上涨7.19美元，涨幅近7%，收于每桶110.60美元。根据FactSet机构数据，这是自2011年5月以来近月合约的最高收盘价。5、黄金期货收跌1.1% 白银下跌1.4%俄乌准备恢复谈判的消息暂时降低了避险需求。根据CME的美联储观察工具，目前市场预计美联储几乎肯定加息25个基点，上涨50个基点的可能性为3.7%。最终，纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌21.50美元，跌幅为1.1%，收于每盎司1922.30美元。5月白银期货价格下跌35美分，跌幅为1.4%，收于每盎司25.19美元。6、走出冬天不代表能源危机解除：欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高 一度飙升60%当地时间周三（3月2日），欧洲天然气价格盘中突破纪录高位，交易商担心俄乌冲突升级可能导致天然气供应中断。荷兰TTF基准天然气期货价格一度跳涨至每兆瓦时194欧元（约合215美元），较周二收盘价的涨幅达到60%，两倍于上周五的收盘价。英国ICIS的市场分析师Alex Froley表示，从俄罗斯流向欧洲的天然气管道正在正常进行，但很多不确定因素让交易商和投资者担忧。国际宏观1、一文读懂鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点当地时间3月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会众议院金融服务委员会，为美联储半年度货币政策报告提供证词并接受议员质询。随着鲍威尔几乎消除3月货币政策不确定性，美国三大指数集体走高，截至发布会结束标普和道指涨幅均达到2%。鲍威尔表示，目前仍支持3月加息25个基点的计划，同时预期能够在缩减资产负债表的问题上取得进展，但不会最终敲定这一事项。同时鲍威尔也强调，目前美联储的预期是今年通胀将会见顶并回落，如果通胀持续高于这一目标，美联储也准备好在未来一次或多次会议中以更激进的方式加息。2、白宫公布针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的最新制裁措施细节美国白宫当地时间3月2日公布了一系列针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯最新经济制裁措施的细节，包括对白俄罗斯实施出口管制政策，以防止科技软件和技术通过白俄罗斯流入俄罗斯。白宫称，此举将“严重限制俄罗斯和白俄罗斯获得（对乌军事行动）所需材料的能力”。3、联合国大会通过乌克兰局势决议草案 要求俄罗斯从乌克兰撤军联合国大会紧急特别会议通过了由乌克兰等超过90国共同提交的乌克兰局势决议草案。此决议除要求俄罗斯“立即、彻底、无条件”从乌克兰撤军外，还加入了针对白俄罗斯的相关条文。由于联合国大会决议除部分涉联合国自身运行项目外，对会员国没有法律约束力，因此该决议执行情况有待观察。4、ADP数据显示美国企业2月份新增就业人数超过预期美国2月ADP就业人数增加47.5万人，预估为增加38.8万人，前值为减少30.1万人。5、美联储褐皮书：通胀猛于虎，1月到2月经济温和扩张美联储经济状况褐皮书指出，自1月中旬以来，经济活动一直在以适度至温和的速度扩张。企业报告称，预计未来几个月物价还会上涨，成本上升和招聘困难持续存在。6、加拿大央行如期加息并暗示会继续提高利率 暂未启动缩表面对处于30年高位的通胀率，加拿大央行宣布加息25基点，并暗示还会进一步提高利率。央行行长Tiff Macklem等官员决定将隔夜基准利率上调至0.5％，基本符合市场预期。官员们表示，由于通胀压力居高不下，他们料将进一步提高借贷成本，但不会减持国债。这是加拿大自2018年以来首次加息，一些人预计这将是该行三年前开始实施通胀目标制以来节奏最快的加息周期之一。市场押注政策利率到6月最高将触及1％，明年此时料达到1.75％。7、欧佩克+同意4月增产40万桶/日欧佩克+同意按照现有计划将4月份石油产量提高40万桶/日，下一次欧佩克会议将在3月31日举行。8、美国能源信息署：上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零美国能源信息署（EIA）最新数据显示，美国2月25日当周EIA原油库存下降259.7万桶，预期会增加250万桶，之前一周增加451.4万桶。此外，美国能源信息署称，上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零。9、美国针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施技术出口管制白宫表示，美国将针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施出口管制，这是支持俄罗斯军方的一个重要收入来源。通过对石油和天然气开采设备实施出口管制，美国商务部将对长期而言支持俄罗斯炼油能力的技术出口施加限制。公司新闻1、苹果将于3月9日召开新品发布会，新款iPhone SE要来了？北京时间3月3日凌晨，苹果公司发布邀请函，官宣将于太平洋时间3月8日上午10点，北京时间3月9日凌晨2点召开新品发布会，此次发布会的主题是「Peek performance」，中文主题「高能传递」。2、特斯拉加码澳洲锂矿，未来四年供应11万吨锂辉石精矿澳锂矿商Core Lithium周三宣布与特斯拉达成供应协议，将在4年内向特斯拉供应高达11万吨的锂辉石精矿。Core Lithium表示，向特斯拉的供应计划预计将于2023年下半年开始。目前，全球汽车制造商都在竞相确保用于制造电动汽车的零部件的供应。3、福特将分开运营电动车和内燃机业务，使电动车业务利润最大化据路透，三位知情人士称，福特汽车周三将宣布一项重组计划，根据该计划，其电动车和内燃机业务将分开运营，此举旨在让电动车业务实现利润最大化，并以更快的速度发展。福特将任命高管来领导每项业务，这些业务将有独立的名称，福特还将概述公司整体的最新利润率目标。一位消息人士称，福特的想法是最终分别报告电动车和内燃机车业务的业绩。4、Netflix宣布6500万欧元收购芬兰游戏开发商Next Games3月2日消息，Netflix宣布已达成收购芬兰游戏开发商 Next Games 的合并协议，该交易预计将于 2022 年第二季度完成。根据协议，Netflix 即将启动收购要约，以收购 Next Games 的所有已发行和流通股。根据要约，Next Games股东将获得每股 Next Games 2.10 欧元的现金，总价值约为 6500 万欧元。Next Games董事会一致决定建议股东接受要约收购。5、Snowflake营收增长放缓，盘后跌逾22%Snowflake第四季度总营收为3.838亿美元，同比增长101%；净亏损为1.322亿美元，与去年同期的净亏损1.989亿美元相比有所收窄，Snowflake盘后暴跌 22%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"UCO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"DDG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096122732,"gmtCreate":1644333711005,"gmtModify":1676533913882,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096122732","repostId":"1109828828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093056346,"gmtCreate":1643468112735,"gmtModify":1676533823440,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093056346","repostId":"2207560805","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090082525,"gmtCreate":1643035969953,"gmtModify":1676533767235,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090082525","repostId":"1197782395","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001609098,"gmtCreate":1641225350365,"gmtModify":1676533585265,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001609098","repostId":"2200423912","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009791653,"gmtCreate":1640788136944,"gmtModify":1676533541492,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009791653","repostId":"2195455895","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9041885328,"gmtCreate":1656033293364,"gmtModify":1676535754795,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9041885328","repostId":"1147384376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147384376","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656028464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147384376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-24 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147384376","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ② U.S. oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both PMI indicators in the United States fell to nearly two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Fund doubled its bet on short European stocks to US $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most U.S. technology stocks rose</p><p>U.S. stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>U.S. tech stocks closed mostly higher, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 2.26%; The concept of economic restart has mostly weakened,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Fell 0.92%, United Airlines fell 2.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Fell 2.33%. In addition, Internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors all rose sharply.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, led by the new energy vehicle sector</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, led by the new energy vehicle sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Closed up 6.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Dada rose more than 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose more than 5%, Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Powder sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rose more than 1%, and just ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Closed down nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX index fell 1.72%</p><p>European stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, Britain's FTSE index fell 1%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.8% on Thursday, the lowest closing price since May 10</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to close at $104.27 a barrel, the lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are worried that aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a recession, which could dampen fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, closing down for the fourth consecutive day</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to close at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The use of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hits a new record of US $2.285 trillion</p><p>The use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. 89 participants spent $2.285 trillion, exceeding the previous high of $2.259 trillion hit on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change in line with Fed policy.</p><p>2. Powell reiterates \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, saying recession is not inevitable</p><p>While Democrats warned of recession risks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation was \"unconditional.\" Another Fed governor supports another 75 basis point interest rate hike next month. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"The overheating of our labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we are still far from the inflation target right now. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation back to 2%, because if we don't do so, we won't achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Fed still wants a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be more difficult.</p><p>3. Fed Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on the current inflation data, I expect a rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting to be appropriate, as long as the data supports it, in the next few meetings. rate hike should be at least 50 basis points. Depending on how the economy develops, further increases in the federal funds target rate range may need to be needed afterwards.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States are climbing again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The previous week, the interest rate recorded its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Falling U.S. corporate activity, soaring inflation causes factory orders and production to shrink</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step back in June, as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand for services and caused factory orders and production to shrink directly. The preliminary value of the U.S. composite output index for June released by S&P Global on Thursday slipped 2.4 points to 51.2. While still above 50, this is the second-lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p>6. Is the U.S. economy in full swing? Both PMI indicators fell near two-year lows</p><p>Financial Analytics Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by (S&P Global) on Thursday (June 23rd) showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the United States both experienced a larger-than-expected decline in June. Specific data shows that the initial value of U.S. manufacturing PMI in June recorded 52.4, a new 23-month low, far lower than market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The initial value of the manufacturing output index recorded 49.6, a 24-month low, far lower than last month's 55.2. The initial value of the business activity index (service PMI) in June recorded 51.6, significantly lower than market expectations of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, setting a new five-month low and falling below 52 for the third time since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturns a New York gun law that will allow more people to legally hold guns</p><p>On June 23rd, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York in a major ruling on gun rights, which will allow more people to legally hold guns on the streets. The justices voted 6-3 to overturn a restrictive New York gun law that required people to prove they specifically need to carry firearms in order to get a license to carry them in public. The justices said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to \"keep and bear weapons.\" It is reported that California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island all have similar laws and may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. U.S. senators sent a letter to Biden saying that he should consider restricting crude oil exports</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators urged President Joe Biden to limit crude oil exports to ensure oil supplies to the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin and Jeanne Shaheen said the \"severe spike\" in energy prices gave reason to use this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil business executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigation Committee held its fifth public hearing on the Capitol riot</p><p>On June 23, local time, the Special Investigation Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held its fifth public hearing on the investigation of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigation committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to \"legalize\" his election lies and put pressure on multiple officials. White House lawyer Eric Hirschman testified that Jeffrey Clark, a former senior Justice Department official, had indicated that he wanted to use Justice Department power to assist Trump's plan.</p><p>10. Omicron BA.4/5 is coming fiercely: repeated infection of the mutant strain with the strongest immune escape ability</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron's new mutant strains BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the United States. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is by far the Novel Coronavirus variant with the strongest immune escape ability. It can reinfect and walk through the lungs. These characteristics mean that they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Fund will double its bet on shorting European stocks to US $10.5 billion</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, and its bearish strength on stocks in the region reached its highest level in two years. The world's largest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>And SAP's personal bets exceed $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion against European stocks. The investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML and a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML, according to data compiled based on regulatory filings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>About $752 million in short bets. The number of European companies it has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs</p><p>According to the Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to rubles to levy grain tariffs and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates may reach 1.5%-2% within a year</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Slovakian central bank, said that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points in the next 12 months, bringing interest rates to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. \"It all depends on upcoming data.\" Kazimir said some eurozone countries could fall into a \"technical recession\".</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that given that Ukraine and Moldova will obtain candidate country status, the EU should prepare for enlargement. Scholz stressed that in order for a larger alliance to work, more decisions should be adopted on the principle of majority vote instead of requiring unanimity. At present, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies that they do not approve of with one vote. Previously, due to the opposition of Hungary and other countries, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high, Mexican central bank announces a rate hike of 75 basis points</p><p>The central bank of Mexico accelerated the pace of raising interest rates on Thursday after data showed that prices rose year-on-year in early June to a 21-year high. Mexico's central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. The rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted inflation targeting in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank generally tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The EU approves Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called this a historic moment and marked a crucial step for Ukraine towards the EU. European Commission President von der Leyen said that this decision not only strengthens the strength of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision of the EU summit was made at the proposal of the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's obtaining EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on official social media that Ukraine has obtained EU candidate status, saying that this is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU, and expressed his gratitude to EU leaders for their support.</p><p>3. U.S. official: The United States will provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23, local time, U.S. officials stated that the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military assistance, including the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket system, ammunition and other supplies. It is reported that the U.S. government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia that it may trigger energy market collapse</p><p>Germany warned that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe could trigger a collapse in the energy market, which was as influential as the financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest \"alert\" level, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that losses for energy suppliers are increasing day by day as they are forced to make up for lost gas at high prices, which has a negative impact on the local utility industry. There may be spillover risks for its users, including consumers and businesses. Habeck said at a press conference in Berlin, \"If the losses are too big for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Affected by sanctions against Russia, Japan's construction timber supply is difficult</p><p>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to cause chaos in the international industrial chain and supply chain, it has brought more and more impact to many countries around the world. Because of the frequent earthquakes in Japan, many buildings are made of wood, so the demand for wood is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large amounts of Russian timber, which had a great impact on the supply of Japanese timber.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will fully withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sports brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday local time that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after three months of suspension of Russian operations. The analysis pointed out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will have little substantial impact. The combined revenue from Ukraine and Russia is less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Says congressional delays threaten to shrink Ohio plant plans</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS chip bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company doesn't know exactly when there will be results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled to be held on July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that it would postpone the groundbreaking time.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers hit hard! FDA bans JUUL products from entering the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban Juul e-cigarettes from being sold or distributed in the U.S. market, with regulators saying it lacks \"sufficient evidence\" to show that the sale of the product is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he did not approve of the FDA's judgment and would exhaust regulatory and related legal options and seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion in tort damages</p><p>On Thursday, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals made a ruling to revoke the lower court's compensation in support of Centripetal's patent infringement case against Cisco. The reason is that the judge Morgan who heard the case did not take recusal measures on the premise that his wife held Cisco shares. At that time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement compensation, plus patent licensing fees, and the overall compensation would exceed $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix cuts 300 jobs as revenue growth slows</a></p><p>According to local media reports, streaming media giant Netflix recently laid off 300 employees after laying off 150 employees last month, equivalent to about 3% of the company's employees. Subsequently, the company also confirmed this matter and said that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. The U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives of seven major oil companies</p><p>According to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth largest refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>) Wilmington Refinery reported an unexpected fire on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-24 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ② U.S. oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both PMI indicators in the United States fell to nearly two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Fund doubled its bet on short European stocks to US $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most U.S. technology stocks rose</p><p>U.S. stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>U.S. tech stocks closed mostly higher, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 2.26%; The concept of economic restart has mostly weakened,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Fell 0.92%, United Airlines fell 2.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Fell 2.33%. In addition, Internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors all rose sharply.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, led by the new energy vehicle sector</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, led by the new energy vehicle sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Closed up 6.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Dada rose more than 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose more than 5%, Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Powder sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rose more than 1%, and just ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Closed down nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX index fell 1.72%</p><p>European stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, Britain's FTSE index fell 1%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.8% on Thursday, the lowest closing price since May 10</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to close at $104.27 a barrel, the lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are worried that aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a recession, which could dampen fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, closing down for the fourth consecutive day</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to close at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The use of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hits a new record of US $2.285 trillion</p><p>The use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. 89 participants spent $2.285 trillion, exceeding the previous high of $2.259 trillion hit on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change in line with Fed policy.</p><p>2. Powell reiterates \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, saying recession is not inevitable</p><p>While Democrats warned of recession risks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation was \"unconditional.\" Another Fed governor supports another 75 basis point interest rate hike next month. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"The overheating of our labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we are still far from the inflation target right now. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation back to 2%, because if we don't do so, we won't achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Fed still wants a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be more difficult.</p><p>3. Fed Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on the current inflation data, I expect a rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting to be appropriate, as long as the data supports it, in the next few meetings. rate hike should be at least 50 basis points. Depending on how the economy develops, further increases in the federal funds target rate range may need to be needed afterwards.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States are climbing again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The previous week, the interest rate recorded its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Falling U.S. corporate activity, soaring inflation causes factory orders and production to shrink</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step back in June, as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand for services and caused factory orders and production to shrink directly. The preliminary value of the U.S. composite output index for June released by S&P Global on Thursday slipped 2.4 points to 51.2. While still above 50, this is the second-lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p>6. Is the U.S. economy in full swing? Both PMI indicators fell near two-year lows</p><p>Financial Analytics Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by (S&P Global) on Thursday (June 23rd) showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the United States both experienced a larger-than-expected decline in June. Specific data shows that the initial value of U.S. manufacturing PMI in June recorded 52.4, a new 23-month low, far lower than market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The initial value of the manufacturing output index recorded 49.6, a 24-month low, far lower than last month's 55.2. The initial value of the business activity index (service PMI) in June recorded 51.6, significantly lower than market expectations of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, setting a new five-month low and falling below 52 for the third time since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturns a New York gun law that will allow more people to legally hold guns</p><p>On June 23rd, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York in a major ruling on gun rights, which will allow more people to legally hold guns on the streets. The justices voted 6-3 to overturn a restrictive New York gun law that required people to prove they specifically need to carry firearms in order to get a license to carry them in public. The justices said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to \"keep and bear weapons.\" It is reported that California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island all have similar laws and may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. U.S. senators sent a letter to Biden saying that he should consider restricting crude oil exports</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators urged President Joe Biden to limit crude oil exports to ensure oil supplies to the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin and Jeanne Shaheen said the \"severe spike\" in energy prices gave reason to use this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil business executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigation Committee held its fifth public hearing on the Capitol riot</p><p>On June 23, local time, the Special Investigation Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held its fifth public hearing on the investigation of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigation committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to \"legalize\" his election lies and put pressure on multiple officials. White House lawyer Eric Hirschman testified that Jeffrey Clark, a former senior Justice Department official, had indicated that he wanted to use Justice Department power to assist Trump's plan.</p><p>10. Omicron BA.4/5 is coming fiercely: repeated infection of the mutant strain with the strongest immune escape ability</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron's new mutant strains BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the United States. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is by far the Novel Coronavirus variant with the strongest immune escape ability. It can reinfect and walk through the lungs. These characteristics mean that they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Fund will double its bet on shorting European stocks to US $10.5 billion</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, and its bearish strength on stocks in the region reached its highest level in two years. The world's largest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>And SAP's personal bets exceed $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion against European stocks. The investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML and a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML, according to data compiled based on regulatory filings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>About $752 million in short bets. The number of European companies it has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs</p><p>According to the Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to rubles to levy grain tariffs and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates may reach 1.5%-2% within a year</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Slovakian central bank, said that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points in the next 12 months, bringing interest rates to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. \"It all depends on upcoming data.\" Kazimir said some eurozone countries could fall into a \"technical recession\".</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that given that Ukraine and Moldova will obtain candidate country status, the EU should prepare for enlargement. Scholz stressed that in order for a larger alliance to work, more decisions should be adopted on the principle of majority vote instead of requiring unanimity. At present, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies that they do not approve of with one vote. Previously, due to the opposition of Hungary and other countries, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high, Mexican central bank announces a rate hike of 75 basis points</p><p>The central bank of Mexico accelerated the pace of raising interest rates on Thursday after data showed that prices rose year-on-year in early June to a 21-year high. Mexico's central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. The rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted inflation targeting in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank generally tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The EU approves Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called this a historic moment and marked a crucial step for Ukraine towards the EU. European Commission President von der Leyen said that this decision not only strengthens the strength of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision of the EU summit was made at the proposal of the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's obtaining EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on official social media that Ukraine has obtained EU candidate status, saying that this is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU, and expressed his gratitude to EU leaders for their support.</p><p>3. U.S. official: The United States will provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23, local time, U.S. officials stated that the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military assistance, including the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket system, ammunition and other supplies. It is reported that the U.S. government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia that it may trigger energy market collapse</p><p>Germany warned that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe could trigger a collapse in the energy market, which was as influential as the financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest \"alert\" level, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that losses for energy suppliers are increasing day by day as they are forced to make up for lost gas at high prices, which has a negative impact on the local utility industry. There may be spillover risks for its users, including consumers and businesses. Habeck said at a press conference in Berlin, \"If the losses are too big for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Affected by sanctions against Russia, Japan's construction timber supply is difficult</p><p>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to cause chaos in the international industrial chain and supply chain, it has brought more and more impact to many countries around the world. Because of the frequent earthquakes in Japan, many buildings are made of wood, so the demand for wood is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large amounts of Russian timber, which had a great impact on the supply of Japanese timber.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will fully withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sports brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday local time that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after three months of suspension of Russian operations. The analysis pointed out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will have little substantial impact. The combined revenue from Ukraine and Russia is less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Says congressional delays threaten to shrink Ohio plant plans</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS chip bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company doesn't know exactly when there will be results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled to be held on July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that it would postpone the groundbreaking time.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers hit hard! FDA bans JUUL products from entering the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban Juul e-cigarettes from being sold or distributed in the U.S. market, with regulators saying it lacks \"sufficient evidence\" to show that the sale of the product is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he did not approve of the FDA's judgment and would exhaust regulatory and related legal options and seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion in tort damages</p><p>On Thursday, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals made a ruling to revoke the lower court's compensation in support of Centripetal's patent infringement case against Cisco. The reason is that the judge Morgan who heard the case did not take recusal measures on the premise that his wife held Cisco shares. At that time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement compensation, plus patent licensing fees, and the overall compensation would exceed $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix cuts 300 jobs as revenue growth slows</a></p><p>According to local media reports, streaming media giant Netflix recently laid off 300 employees after laying off 150 employees last month, equivalent to about 3% of the company's employees. Subsequently, the company also confirmed this matter and said that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. The U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives of seven major oil companies</p><p>According to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth largest refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>) Wilmington Refinery reported an unexpected fire on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4555":"新能源车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK1539":"汽车股","BK1587":"次新股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK1119":"汽车制造商","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147384376","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国。海外市场1、隔夜美股集体收高 美国科技股多数走高美股收盘，三大股指集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.64%，纳指涨1.62%，标普500指数涨0.95%。美国科技股收盘多数走高，其中苹果涨2.16%、特斯拉跌0.43%、亚马逊涨3.20%、谷歌A涨0.68%、奈飞涨1.58%、微软涨2.26%；经济重启概念多数走弱，美国航空跌0.92%、联合航空跌2.48%、皇家加勒比邮轮跌1.69%、波音跌2.33%。此外，互联网科技股、新能源汽车、消费和医药板块全数大涨。2、热门中概股多数收涨 新能源车板块领涨热门中概股周四多数收涨，新能源车板块领涨，小鹏汽车涨近8%，理想汽车涨6.6%，比亚迪ADR涨3.7%，蔚来涨超2%。其他中概股方面，拼多多收涨6.4%，百度涨2.4%，京东涨近0.8%，而网易跌近0.9%。叮咚买菜涨超7%，阿里巴巴、达达涨逾6%，电子烟第一股雾芯科技涨逾5%，B站、爱奇艺涨超3%，好未来、虎牙、迅雷涨超2%，腾讯粉单、满帮、金山云、知乎涨超1%，而周三刚结束三连跌的新东方收跌近9%，斗鱼跌逾4%，高途教育跌0.5%，网易有道跌近0.4%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌德国DAX指数跌1.72%欧股收盘，三大股指全线收跌。德国DAX指数跌1.72%，法国CAC指数跌0.56%，英国富时指数跌1%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.77%。4、美国WTI原油周四收跌1.8% 创5月10日以来最低收盘价美国原油期货价格周四录得连续第二个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.92美元，跌幅为1.81%，收于每桶104.27美元，创5月10日以来的最低收盘价。投资者担心美联储激进加息可能引发经济衰退，从而抑制燃料需求。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.5% 连续第四日收跌纽约黄金期货价格周四录得连续第四个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌8.60美元，跌幅为0.5%，报收于每盎司1829.80美元。分析师指出，周四黄金价格下跌的主要原因是美元走强，而美元走强的原因是市场预期美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的货币政策。国际宏观1、美联储逆回购工具使用量创下2.285万亿美元的新纪录美联储隔夜逆回购工具的使用量周四再创新高。89个参与方动用2.285万亿美元，超过周三触及的前期高点2.259万亿美元。该工具支付隔夜利率0.80%；其利率跟随美联储政策而变化。2、鲍威尔重申“无条件”抗通胀承诺 称经济衰退并非不可避免尽管民主党人警告经济衰退风险，但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，联储抗通胀的承诺是“无条件的”。另一位美联储理事支持下个月再次升息75个基点。鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证时表示，“我们劳动力市场的过热有点不可持续，现在离通胀目标还很遥远。我们真的需要恢复物价稳定，让通胀率回落至2%，因为如果不这样做的话，将无法实现可持续的充分就业。”鲍威尔重申， 美联储仍然希望经济实现软着陆，尽管过程会比较艰难。3、美联储理事Bowman支持在7月加息75个基点美联储理事Michelle Bowman表示，她支持7月升息75个基点，之后再进行几次50基点的加息。Bowman在为马萨诸塞州银行家协会组织的一场活动准备的发言中说，“基于当前的通胀数据，我预计下次会议上加息75个基点是合适的，只要数据支持，在此后的几次会议上应该加息至少50个基点。根据经济的发展情况，之后可能还需要进一步提高联邦基金目标利率区间。”4、美国抵押贷款利率升至5.81% 创2008年以来最高水平美国的抵押贷款利率再次攀升，创14年来高位。房地美在周四发布的声明中称，30年期抵押贷款平均利率为5.81%，高于上周的5.78%。这个走势与10年期美债收益率的下滑背道而驰。此前一周该利率创下1987年以来最大周升幅。5、美国企业活动下降 通胀飙升导致工厂订单和生产萎缩美国企业活动6月向回落迈出了坚定一步，因快速走高的通胀降低了服务业需求，并导致工厂订单和生产径直萎缩。S&P Global周四发布的6月份美国综合产出指数初值下滑2.4点至51.2。虽然仍高于50，但这已是2020年7月以来的次低水平，当时经济正在竭力摆脱疫情引发的衰退。6、美国经济颓势尽显？两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位附近金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）周四（6月23日）公布的最新数据报告显示，6月美国制造业和服务业采购经理指数（PMI）均出现了超于预期的跌幅。具体数据显示，美国6月制造业PMI初值录得52.4，刷新23个月低位，远低于市场预期的56和5月的57；制造业产出指数初值录得49.6，刷新24个月低位，远不及上月的55.2。6月商务活动指数（服务业PMI）初值录得51.6，显著低于市场预期的53.5和5月的53.4，刷新5个月低位，为2020年7月以来第三次跌至52以下。7、美国最高法院推翻纽约州一项枪支法律 将允许更多人合法持枪当地时间6月23日，美国最高法院在一项有关持枪权的重大裁决中推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，将允许更多人在街道上合法持枪。法官们以6票赞成、3票反对的结果推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，该法律要求人们证明自己特别需要携带枪支，才能获得在公共场合携带枪支的执照。法官们表示，这一要求违反了第二修正案“持有和携带武器”的权利。据悉，美国加利福尼亚州、夏威夷、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、新泽西州和罗得岛州都有类似的法律，可能会因这项裁决而受到挑战。8、美国参议员致函拜登 称其应当考虑限制原油出口美国民主党参议员敦促总统拜登限制原油出口，从而保障美国及其盟友的的石油供应。参议员Jack Reed、Tammy Duckworth、Tammy Baldwin和Jeanne Shaheen在一封信函中表示，能源价格“严重飙升”给使用这一权力提供了理由。美国能源部长Jennifer Granholm定于今天与石油企业高管会面。9、美国会众议院特别调查委员会就国会大厦骚乱事件举行第五场公开听证会当地时间6月23日，美国国会众议院特别调查委员会就去年1月6日国会大厦骚乱事件的调查举行第五场公开听证会。特别调查委员会主席本尼·汤普森（Bennie Thompson）在听证会上指出，前总统特朗普希望司法部将他的选举谎言“合法化”，并对多名官员进行施压。白宫律师埃里克·赫施曼作证称，前司法部高级官员杰弗里·克拉克（Jeffrey Clark）曾表示想利用司法部权力协助特朗普的计划。10、奥密克戎BA.4/5来势汹汹：免疫逃逸能力最强变异株 重复感染根据美国疾控中心（CDC）近日发布的数据，奥密克戎新变异株BA.4和BA.5正在美国占据主导，已经占据了美国新增病例的34.9%。令人担忧的是，研究显示，BA.4/5是目前为止免疫逃逸能力最强的新冠病毒变异株，可以重复感染，能走肺，这些特征意味着它们可能导致更多的住院和死亡。11、桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元桥水对欧洲股票的做空押注增加一倍，至105亿美元，在过去一周几乎翻了一番，对该地区股市的看空力度达到两年来的最高水平。根据汇编数据，这家全球最大的对冲基金公司披露了对28家公司的空头押注，其中包括对阿斯麦、道达尔、赛诺菲和思爱普的个人押注超过5亿美元。上周数据显示，桥水已成为欧洲股市的最大空头，大举押注逾57亿美元做空欧股。基于监管文件汇总的数据显示，这些投资中包括对半导体制造商阿斯麦10亿美元的空头押注以及对道达尔约7.52亿美元的空头押注。该公司本月做空的欧洲公司数量已增至18家。12、俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税据国际文传电讯社，俄罗斯可能会逐步改用卢布征收粮食关税，并考虑减免粮食出口关税。13、欧洲央行官员Kazimir：欧洲央行利率可能在一年内达到1.5%-2%欧洲央行管理委员会成员，担任斯洛伐克央行行长的Peter Kazimir表示，欧洲央行可能在未来12个月内将利率提高超过200个基点，使利率从现在开始的一年后达到1.5%-2%。Kazimir预计7月加息25个基点，然后9月可能加息50个基点。“这一切都取决于即将到来的数据。”Kazimir表示，一些欧元区国家可能陷入“技术性衰退”。14、德国总理朔尔茨：欧盟必须做好扩张的准备当地时间周四（6月23日），德国总理朔尔茨表示，鉴于乌克兰和摩尔多瓦将获得候选国身份，欧盟应该为扩大做好准备。朔尔茨强调，为了让更大的联盟发挥作用，更多的决定应该采取多数表决通过的原则，而不是要求全体一致通过。目前，在关键决策上欧盟采取的是一致通过原则，这意味着欧盟27个成员国均有权一票否决自己不认可的政策。此前，由于匈牙利等国的反对，欧盟拖延了约一个月时间，才正式推出针对俄罗斯的第六轮制裁。15、通胀达到21年高位 墨西哥央行宣布加息75基点在数据显示6月初物价同比升幅达到21年高位后，墨西哥央行周四加快了升息步伐。墨西哥央行将关键利率上调75个基点至7.75%，符合接受调查的所有27位经济学家的预期。此次加息幅度也是该行2008年采用通胀目标制以来最大，并且与美联储上周的加息幅度相同。墨西哥央行通常倾向于效仿美联储的利率决定，以避免资本突然外流。俄乌局势1、欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国欧洲理事会主席米歇尔当地时间23日宣布，当天的欧盟峰会同意批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国，格鲁吉亚为潜在候选国。米歇尔称这是一个历史性的时刻，标志着乌克兰向欧盟迈出了关键一步。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，这一决定不仅加强了乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚三国的力量，同时也加强了欧盟的实力。欧盟峰会的这项决定是应欧盟委员会本月17日的建议作出的。2、泽连斯基：乌获得欧盟候选国地位 是乌克兰与欧盟关系独一无二的历史时刻当地时间23日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基就乌克兰获得欧盟候选国地位在官方社交媒体上发文称，这是乌克兰与欧盟关系中独一无二的历史时刻，并对欧盟领导人的支持表示感谢。3、美官员：美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助据美联社当地时间6月23日报道，美国官员表示，美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助，包括“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭系统、弹药和其他物资。据悉，美国政府曾在15日宣布向乌克兰额外提供10亿美元的军事援助。4、德国警告俄罗斯或引发能源市场崩溃德国警告说，俄罗斯削减欧洲天然气供应可能引发能源市场崩溃，影响力不亚于当年雷曼兄弟引爆金融危机。在将德国天然气风险级别上调至第二高的“警戒”水平后，经济部长Robert Habeck表示，由于被迫以高价补平损失的气量，能源供应商的亏损正在日益增加，对当地公用事业行业及其用户（包括消费者和企业）可能存在溢出风险。Habeck在柏林召开的新闻发布会上表示，“如果亏损大到以他们不能承受，那么整个市场就会在某个时刻崩塌。这是能源系统的雷曼效应。”5、受对俄制裁影响 日本建筑木材供应难由于俄乌冲突持续造成国际产业链以及供应链的混乱，给世界多国都带来越来越多的影响。日本因为地震多发，建筑很多都采用木质结构，因而对木材的需求量非常大。俄乌冲突发生后，日本无法再大量进口俄罗斯木材，这给日本木材的供应造成了很大影响。公司新闻1、耐克将全面退出俄罗斯市场美国运动品牌耐克(Nike)当地时间周四在一份电子邮件声明中称，在俄罗斯业务暂停三个月后，该品牌将全面退出俄罗斯市场。分析指出，对耐克来说，这一举措在很大程度上是象征性的，不会产生什么实质性影响。来自乌克兰和俄罗斯两国的收入加起来也不到耐克总收入的1%。2、英特尔称国会延误恐导致俄亥俄工厂计划缩水在周四发送给媒体的声明中，英特尔明确表示：“不幸的是，美国国会的CHIPS芯片法案进展缓慢，公司也不知道到底什么时候能有结果。现在是国会采取行动的时候了，这样英特尔才能以长期以来为俄亥俄州以及其他项目设想的速度和规模向前推进。”根据当地媒体报道，英特尔俄亥俄工厂的开工仪式原定于7月22日举行，但公司周三向俄亥俄州州长Mike DeWine的办公室和俄亥俄州国会代表团成员通报将会推迟破土的时间。3、电子烟制造商遭重创！FDA禁止JUUL产品进入美国市场美国FDA周四宣布，将禁止Juul电子烟在美国市场进行销售或分销，监管称“缺乏足够证据”显示该产品的销售对于公共健康是合适的。Juul首席执行官Joe Murillo回应称不认可FDA的判断，将穷尽监管和相关法律的选项，寻求继续留在美国市场的方法。4、美国上诉法院驳回对思科不利的27亿美元侵权赔偿当地时间周四，美国联邦上诉法院作出判决，撤销下级法院支持Centripetal控告思科专利侵权案的赔偿，原因是审理此案的法官摩根在明知自己妻子持有思科股票的前提下，并没有采取回避措施。当时摩根判决思科向Centripetal支付19亿美元的侵权赔偿，加上专利授权许可费，整体赔偿金将超过27亿美元。5、营收增速放缓，Netflix裁员300人据当地媒体报道，流媒体巨头奈飞继上个月裁员150人后，又在近期裁掉了300名员工，约等于整个公司3%的雇员。随后公司也确认了这一事项，并表示作出这些调整是为了确保成本与营收增速下滑相匹配。6、美国能源部长会见七大油企高管根据美国能源部的公告，周四能源部长格兰霍姆与七家美国主要油企的CEO和高管举行了线下会谈，并提醒这些企业必须拿出解决方案确保安全、可负担的燃油供应。根据当地媒体报道，美国第四大炼油商菲利普斯66公司（Phillips 66）威尔明顿炼油厂6月23日报告发生意外火灾。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011429290,"gmtCreate":1648910727813,"gmtModify":1676534421081,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011429290","repostId":"1102580279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037518092,"gmtCreate":1648134970912,"gmtModify":1676534308385,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037518092","repostId":"1193025107","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193025107","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648131304,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193025107?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-24 22:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"BlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193025107","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这家全球最大资产管理公司的掌门人预计，世界向清洁能源转型短期将降速，而长期会提速。3月24日周四，贝莱德掌门人拉里芬克在致投资者的信中警告称，俄乌冲突将重塑世界经济，促使企业撤出全球供应链，从而进一步","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The head of the world's largest asset management company predicts that the world's transition to clean energy will slow down in the short term and accelerate in the long term. On Thursday, March 24, BlackRock head Larry Fink warned in a letter to investors that,<b>The Russia-Ukraine conflict will reshape the world economy and prompt companies to withdraw from global supply chains, further pushing up inflation.</b>He said:</p><p>\"The Russia-Ukraine conflict ended the globalization we have experienced over the past three decades.\" In the letter, Larry Fink also elaborated on his views on energy and digital currencies.<b>Energy</b>, he believes that in the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably slow down the world's progress towards clean energy, but in the long run, it will accelerate the world's transformation to green energy.<b>Digital currency,</b>He believes that the Russia-Ukraine crisis may accelerate the development of digital currencies.</p><p>At the end of '21, BlackRock managed $10 trillion in assets and was the world's largest asset manager. As the CEO and founder of this asset management giant, Larry Fink is known as the \"Godfather of Wall Street\".</p><p>The era of globalization is over, and supply chains push up global inflation</p><p>Fink pointed out that since COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has been decoupling, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated this trend. Going forward, businesses and governments will think more broadly about their dependence on other countries, which may lead to businesses moving more of their operations to their home countries or neighboring regions and \"withdrawing from some countries\" more quickly.</p><p>He believes that this anti-globalization \"decoupling\" will inevitably bring more challenges to enterprises, such as higher cost and profit pressure. And this large-scale \"repositioning\" of the supply chain will push up inflation. He said:</p><p>\"A massive repositioning of supply chains is inherently inflationary.\" Referring to central bank policy adjustments, Fink emphasized that major central banks are facing a dilemma they haven't faced in decades, namely having to choose between high inflation and slowing economic activity to curb price pressures.</p><p>Clean energy transition: short-term slowdown, long-term acceleration</p><p>Larry Fink pointed out that today, energy security has become the top priority of the global energy transition.</p><p>Energy prices have risen sharply due to the tailoring of Russian commodities. Fink believes this \"inevitably slows down\" the global move towards clean energy. Under the premise of ensuring energy security, next year, the focus of the United States will be to increase the supply of oil and natural gas, while coal consumption in Europe and Asia is likely to increase.</p><p>However, in the long run, this has accelerated the world's transition to green energy. There are two reasons for this:<b>First, policymakers will drive investment in renewable energy as an essential component of energy security.</b>For example, Germany has accelerated the time point to achieve 100% clean energy from 2050 to 2035.<b>Secondly, excessively high fossil energy prices make the price of clean energy more competitive.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-24 22:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The head of the world's largest asset management company predicts that the world's transition to clean energy will slow down in the short term and accelerate in the long term. On Thursday, March 24, BlackRock head Larry Fink warned in a letter to investors that,<b>The Russia-Ukraine conflict will reshape the world economy and prompt companies to withdraw from global supply chains, further pushing up inflation.</b>He said:</p><p>\"The Russia-Ukraine conflict ended the globalization we have experienced over the past three decades.\" In the letter, Larry Fink also elaborated on his views on energy and digital currencies.<b>Energy</b>, he believes that in the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably slow down the world's progress towards clean energy, but in the long run, it will accelerate the world's transformation to green energy.<b>Digital currency,</b>He believes that the Russia-Ukraine crisis may accelerate the development of digital currencies.</p><p>At the end of '21, BlackRock managed $10 trillion in assets and was the world's largest asset manager. As the CEO and founder of this asset management giant, Larry Fink is known as the \"Godfather of Wall Street\".</p><p>The era of globalization is over, and supply chains push up global inflation</p><p>Fink pointed out that since COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has been decoupling, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated this trend. Going forward, businesses and governments will think more broadly about their dependence on other countries, which may lead to businesses moving more of their operations to their home countries or neighboring regions and \"withdrawing from some countries\" more quickly.</p><p>He believes that this anti-globalization \"decoupling\" will inevitably bring more challenges to enterprises, such as higher cost and profit pressure. And this large-scale \"repositioning\" of the supply chain will push up inflation. He said:</p><p>\"A massive repositioning of supply chains is inherently inflationary.\" Referring to central bank policy adjustments, Fink emphasized that major central banks are facing a dilemma they haven't faced in decades, namely having to choose between high inflation and slowing economic activity to curb price pressures.</p><p>Clean energy transition: short-term slowdown, long-term acceleration</p><p>Larry Fink pointed out that today, energy security has become the top priority of the global energy transition.</p><p>Energy prices have risen sharply due to the tailoring of Russian commodities. Fink believes this \"inevitably slows down\" the global move towards clean energy. Under the premise of ensuring energy security, next year, the focus of the United States will be to increase the supply of oil and natural gas, while coal consumption in Europe and Asia is likely to increase.</p><p>However, in the long run, this has accelerated the world's transition to green energy. There are two reasons for this:<b>First, policymakers will drive investment in renewable energy as an essential component of energy security.</b>For example, Germany has accelerated the time point to achieve 100% clean energy from 2050 to 2035.<b>Secondly, excessively high fossil energy prices make the price of clean energy more competitive.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3655152\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"BLK":"贝莱德"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3655152","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1193025107","content_text":"这家全球最大资产管理公司的掌门人预计，世界向清洁能源转型短期将降速，而长期会提速。3月24日周四，贝莱德掌门人拉里芬克在致投资者的信中警告称，俄乌冲突将重塑世界经济，促使企业撤出全球供应链，从而进一步推高通胀。他表示：“俄乌冲突结束了我们在过去三十年中所经历的全球化。”信中，拉里芬克还阐述了自己对能源及数字货币的看法。能源方面，他认为，短期来看俄乌冲突不可避免地减缓了世界向清洁能源迈进的进程，但长远来看，这加速了世界向绿色能源转化的脚步。数字货币方面，他认为俄乌危机或加速数字货币的发展。截至21年底，贝莱德管理着10万亿美元的资产，是全球最大的资产管理公司。作为这家资管巨头的CEO与创始人，拉里芬克被誉为“华尔街教父”。全球化时代终结，供应链推高全球通胀芬克指出，自新冠疫情以来，全球经济便走向脱钩，而俄乌冲突加剧了这一趋势。今后，企业和政府将更广泛地思考它们对其他国家的依赖，这可能会导致企业将更多业务转移到本国或邻近地区，并更快地“从一些国家撤出”。他认为，这种逆全球化的“脱钩”将不可避免地给企业带来更多挑战，如更高的成本和利润压力。而这种供应链的大规模“重新定位”，将会推高通胀。他表示：“供应链的大规模重新定位本质上会导致通货膨胀。”提到央行政策调整时，芬克强调，各大央行正面临数十年来从未面临过的两难局面，即必须在高通胀和经济活动放缓以遏制价格压力之间做出选择。清洁能源转型：短期降速，长期提速拉里芬克指出，如今，能源安全已成为全球能源转型的重中之重。由于对俄罗斯大宗商品的裁制，能源价格已大幅上涨。芬克认为，这“不可避免地减缓了”全球向清洁能源迈进的进程。在保障能源安全的前提下，明年，美国的重点是增加石油和天然气的供应，而欧洲和亚洲的煤炭消费可能会增加。不过，长期来看，这加速了世界向绿色能源转化的进度。原因有二：首先，政策制定者将推动对可再生能源的投资，将其作为能源安全的重要组成部分。例如，德国就已把实现100%清洁能源的时间点从2050年加速至2035年。其次，过高的化石能源价格使得清洁能源的价格更具竞争力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030666355,"gmtCreate":1645710996093,"gmtModify":1676534056127,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030666355","repostId":"1120561496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}