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2022-01-31

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The Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?

2022-03-12

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Global attention! The Fed's "boots land" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?

2023-01-01

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2022-06-13

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Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?

2022-05-26

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Global PE sweep! Is it time to buy high-quality assets at the bottom?

2022-02-10

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It's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new "improvisation" framework

2022-02-03

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Goldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to "buy on dips". What is the basis?

2022-09-17

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Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards

2022-03-29

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Record repurchase scale! Can U.S. stocks usher in a bull market?

2022-03-19

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Bank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of Great Inflation

2022-03-03

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Last night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference

2022-02-08

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2022-01-29

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2022-01-24

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Who hit U.S. stocks hard? What do you think of the back?

2022-01-03

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What do you think of U.S. stocks in 2022? Expected to replicate the trend of 1999-2000

2021-12-29

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2022-06-24

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Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%

2022-03-24

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BlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation

2022-02-24

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The Russia-Ukraine crisis shakes the global market! What are the odds of winning a contrarian investment strategy?

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07:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023 in Morgan Stanley's eyes: about corporate earnings, global recession, China and India, and the rise of Saudi Arabia","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102521229","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利认为，在2023年欧美公司利润承压，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，印度、沙特的发展等将成为股市主题。在过去的2022年，美联储暴力加息，俄乌冲突等多方力量共同作用持续影响市场。美股三大股指均创下","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley believes that in 2023, the profits of European and American companies will be under pressure, the optimistic prospects for the Chinese and Asian economies, and the development of India and Saudi Arabia will become the themes of the stock market. In the past 2022, the violent rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other forces have continued to affect the market. The three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded their worst annual performance since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Heading into 2023, with the prospect of weaker demand from a slowing global economy, investors are beginning to wonder what themes other than the Federal Reserve will dominate markets this year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's analysis team recently summarized the top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023, including:<b>Profit margins of European and American companies are under pressure, from stagflation to recession, optimistic prospects for Chinese and Asian economies, ESG ratings drive company valuations, the next round of IPOs and capital outflows from the secondary market, the earth reduces carbon emissions, the development of India and Saudi Arabia, The era of multiple income earners brought by ChatGPT and what to do about obesity, etc.</b></p><p><b>Theme 1: The Challenge of Profit Margins of European and American Companies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the company's costs cannot fall and its bargaining power will decline in 2023.<b>As a result, earnings are affected and profit margins are under pressure</b>。 From the American perspective,<b>Earnings for the S&P 500 will be under tremendous pressure this year and face a \"earnings cliff\"</b>：</p><p>We believe that when the growth rate of costs exceeds the growth rate of sales, the company's profit growth will be severely hit, and the operating leverage coefficient will be negative. Considering that (1) the job market in some industries is still hot and labor shortages are suffering, wage costs may remain high (2) inventories filled at higher prices amid insufficient supply have led to overinventory, this The phenomenon may become more severe in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ee758835f7a66189d9b772716989f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Due to the sharp decline in profit margins,<b>Morgan Stanley believes European stocks may fall 10% this year</b>：</p><p>Our indicators that monitor margins in Europe show margin contraction of more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, comparable to what was seen during the global financial crisis. Higher wages, still high inflation, slowing terminal demand and declining pricing power will all lead to our expected negative operating leverage.<b>Theme 2: From stagflation to deflation and even recession</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed to inflation and rising interest rates as the main drivers of capital market and industry performance in 2022. Entering 2023, the focus will shift to lower inflation and slower growth:</p><p>Our U.S. economists expect inflation in the U.S. to fall significantly in the coming quarters, which will put downward pressure on bond yields in favor of defensive stocks and GARP stocks. Morgan Stanley believes that inventory will face dual challenges. On the one hand, the bottleneck problem in the supply chain has basically disappeared, while on the other hand, the demand side, especially the demand for goods, is slowing down:</p><p>Supply chain problems have disappeared in most industries, and U.S. imports of goods are rising sharply. Since the financial crisis, the ratio of inventory to sales for U.S. companies has been rising and is now at its highest level since 1990. We think many companies are using discounts to solve this problem.<b>Theme 3: Optimistic prospects for China and Asia's economies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that unlike Western economies, which will slow down further in 2023,<b>With the continuous optimization of policies, the economic development prospects of China and Asia will be more optimistic and usher in recovery</b>：</p><p>Combined with our expected weakness in the US dollar, it should stimulate investor interest in assets in Asia, the Middle East and China (including fixed income and equities). China's market and emerging markets may usher in a rebound.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a909a6cabcf3d4a1cd6ec33a31cbd6a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Topic 4: ESG rating drives alpha</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that ESG ratings in 2023 will become a key focus for investors looking for alphas that can generate alpha and affect the company's future. Morgan Stanley explained:</p><p>By analyzing 90 stocks worldwide, our analysts believe that as long as one ESG indicator has a significant improvement, it will have a positive impact on its finances and valuation. We believe ESG ratings provide a better measure of the future of a stock than traditional ratings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c9ce45f9093561c77630ee06eed714\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Theme 5: Helping the planet reduce carbon emissions</b></p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, companies that can provide sustainable development technologies for different industries in the future will become promoters of social development:</p><p>Our analysts have listed more than 50 companies that have changed the \"rules of the game\" of the industry and continued to advance sustainability technologies. 500 billion dollars of capital is scrambling to break the current stalled status quo of reducing carbon emissions.<b>Topic 6: The next round of IPOs and capital outflows from the secondary market</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley said that it is now in a period when unicorn companies need to refinance, and funds may flow out of the secondary market to support investment:</p><p>In the past 15 years, only 3% of the 1,420 companies have IPOs in the downward cycle; More than 50% of companies continue to IPO or be acquired at higher valuations in the future. If the next round of IPOs happens, it will most likely happen in mid-2023 for most emerging unicorns. History suggests that companies that raised funds in 2021 will have their next funding round around the second quarter of 2023, followed by IPOs in the following 9-12 months.<b>Theme 7: A Decade in India</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that in the next 10 years,<b>India may become the third largest economy and stock market in the world</b>：</p><p>We believe that India already has what it takes to achieve economic prosperity, driven by offshoring, manufacturing investment, energy transition and the country's advanced digital infrastructure. These drivers will make it the third largest economy and stock market in the world within a decade.<b>Theme 8: Saudi Arabia will rise rapidly</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley points out,<b>Saudi Arabia's \"Vision 2030\" announced in 2016 has gained tremendous momentum in 2022, and the momentum is expected to extend into the next decade</b>：</p><p>To achieve Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has launched more than $1 trillion worth of projects aimed at transforming the country into an economic powerhouse. We estimate that Saudi Arabia may spend about $900 billion by 2030 (compared with an estimated $50 billion so far). We believe contractors in South Korea and India, as well as the luxury goods sector, stand to benefit.<b>Theme 9: The Era of Multiple Incomes</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed out that with the rapid iteration and development of ChatGPT and other generative artificial intelligence, the question is beginning to arise: which jobs will be replaced in the future. In the medium and long term,<b>The work of the future requires greater flexibility</b>：</p><p>We believe that the pursuit of work has now begun to shift to the search for multiple sources of income. This is creating a large and growing demographic whose marginal time will be better spent on different jobs generating multiple income streams, and Gen Z people are leading the shift in this paradigm.<b>Topic 10: Obesity x Social Media</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that Wegovy (obesity drug), Ozempic (hypoglycemic drug) and semaglutide (weight loss drug) are being heavily mentioned in TikTok short-sighted videos and comments, and will bring about a series of treatment areas such as obesity. rise:</p><p>We believe that the result of too much discussion of obesity is (1) knowledge of drugs, thereby making (2) the possibility of an exponential spread of demand for drugs in the future. We believe that the global sales of obesity drugs can reach more than 50 billion US dollars in 2030, which will make the expenditure on obesity rise to the top 12 in the global treatment field.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3c5aaf95bc7b7b1ed0f240500ad6a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023 in Morgan Stanley's eyes: about corporate earnings, global recession, China and India, and the rise of Saudi Arabia</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023 in Morgan Stanley's eyes: about corporate earnings, global recession, China and India, and the rise of Saudi Arabia\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-17 07:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Morgan Stanley believes that in 2023, the profits of European and American companies will be under pressure, the optimistic prospects for the Chinese and Asian economies, and the development of India and Saudi Arabia will become the themes of the stock market. In the past 2022, the violent rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other forces have continued to affect the market. The three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded their worst annual performance since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Heading into 2023, with the prospect of weaker demand from a slowing global economy, investors are beginning to wonder what themes other than the Federal Reserve will dominate markets this year.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's analysis team recently summarized the top ten themes of global stock markets in 2023, including:<b>Profit margins of European and American companies are under pressure, from stagflation to recession, optimistic prospects for Chinese and Asian economies, ESG ratings drive company valuations, the next round of IPOs and capital outflows from the secondary market, the earth reduces carbon emissions, the development of India and Saudi Arabia, The era of multiple income earners brought by ChatGPT and what to do about obesity, etc.</b></p><p><b>Theme 1: The Challenge of Profit Margins of European and American Companies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that the company's costs cannot fall and its bargaining power will decline in 2023.<b>As a result, earnings are affected and profit margins are under pressure</b>。 From the American perspective,<b>Earnings for the S&P 500 will be under tremendous pressure this year and face a \"earnings cliff\"</b>：</p><p>We believe that when the growth rate of costs exceeds the growth rate of sales, the company's profit growth will be severely hit, and the operating leverage coefficient will be negative. Considering that (1) the job market in some industries is still hot and labor shortages are suffering, wage costs may remain high (2) inventories filled at higher prices amid insufficient supply have led to overinventory, this The phenomenon may become more severe in 2023.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ee758835f7a66189d9b772716989f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Due to the sharp decline in profit margins,<b>Morgan Stanley believes European stocks may fall 10% this year</b>：</p><p>Our indicators that monitor margins in Europe show margin contraction of more than 200 basis points over the next 12 months, comparable to what was seen during the global financial crisis. Higher wages, still high inflation, slowing terminal demand and declining pricing power will all lead to our expected negative operating leverage.<b>Theme 2: From stagflation to deflation and even recession</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed to inflation and rising interest rates as the main drivers of capital market and industry performance in 2022. Entering 2023, the focus will shift to lower inflation and slower growth:</p><p>Our U.S. economists expect inflation in the U.S. to fall significantly in the coming quarters, which will put downward pressure on bond yields in favor of defensive stocks and GARP stocks. Morgan Stanley believes that inventory will face dual challenges. On the one hand, the bottleneck problem in the supply chain has basically disappeared, while on the other hand, the demand side, especially the demand for goods, is slowing down:</p><p>Supply chain problems have disappeared in most industries, and U.S. imports of goods are rising sharply. Since the financial crisis, the ratio of inventory to sales for U.S. companies has been rising and is now at its highest level since 1990. We think many companies are using discounts to solve this problem.<b>Theme 3: Optimistic prospects for China and Asia's economies</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that unlike Western economies, which will slow down further in 2023,<b>With the continuous optimization of policies, the economic development prospects of China and Asia will be more optimistic and usher in recovery</b>：</p><p>Combined with our expected weakness in the US dollar, it should stimulate investor interest in assets in Asia, the Middle East and China (including fixed income and equities). China's market and emerging markets may usher in a rebound.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a909a6cabcf3d4a1cd6ec33a31cbd6a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Topic 4: ESG rating drives alpha</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that ESG ratings in 2023 will become a key focus for investors looking for alphas that can generate alpha and affect the company's future. Morgan Stanley explained:</p><p>By analyzing 90 stocks worldwide, our analysts believe that as long as one ESG indicator has a significant improvement, it will have a positive impact on its finances and valuation. We believe ESG ratings provide a better measure of the future of a stock than traditional ratings.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c9ce45f9093561c77630ee06eed714\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Theme 5: Helping the planet reduce carbon emissions</b></p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, companies that can provide sustainable development technologies for different industries in the future will become promoters of social development:</p><p>Our analysts have listed more than 50 companies that have changed the \"rules of the game\" of the industry and continued to advance sustainability technologies. 500 billion dollars of capital is scrambling to break the current stalled status quo of reducing carbon emissions.<b>Topic 6: The next round of IPOs and capital outflows from the secondary market</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley said that it is now in a period when unicorn companies need to refinance, and funds may flow out of the secondary market to support investment:</p><p>In the past 15 years, only 3% of the 1,420 companies have IPOs in the downward cycle; More than 50% of companies continue to IPO or be acquired at higher valuations in the future. If the next round of IPOs happens, it will most likely happen in mid-2023 for most emerging unicorns. History suggests that companies that raised funds in 2021 will have their next funding round around the second quarter of 2023, followed by IPOs in the following 9-12 months.<b>Theme 7: A Decade in India</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that in the next 10 years,<b>India may become the third largest economy and stock market in the world</b>：</p><p>We believe that India already has what it takes to achieve economic prosperity, driven by offshoring, manufacturing investment, energy transition and the country's advanced digital infrastructure. These drivers will make it the third largest economy and stock market in the world within a decade.<b>Theme 8: Saudi Arabia will rise rapidly</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley points out,<b>Saudi Arabia's \"Vision 2030\" announced in 2016 has gained tremendous momentum in 2022, and the momentum is expected to extend into the next decade</b>：</p><p>To achieve Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has launched more than $1 trillion worth of projects aimed at transforming the country into an economic powerhouse. We estimate that Saudi Arabia may spend about $900 billion by 2030 (compared with an estimated $50 billion so far). We believe contractors in South Korea and India, as well as the luxury goods sector, stand to benefit.<b>Theme 9: The Era of Multiple Incomes</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley pointed out that with the rapid iteration and development of ChatGPT and other generative artificial intelligence, the question is beginning to arise: which jobs will be replaced in the future. In the medium and long term,<b>The work of the future requires greater flexibility</b>：</p><p>We believe that the pursuit of work has now begun to shift to the search for multiple sources of income. This is creating a large and growing demographic whose marginal time will be better spent on different jobs generating multiple income streams, and Gen Z people are leading the shift in this paradigm.<b>Topic 10: Obesity x Social Media</b></p><p>Morgan Stanley believes that Wegovy (obesity drug), Ozempic (hypoglycemic drug) and semaglutide (weight loss drug) are being heavily mentioned in TikTok short-sighted videos and comments, and will bring about a series of treatment areas such as obesity. rise:</p><p>We believe that the result of too much discussion of obesity is (1) knowledge of drugs, thereby making (2) the possibility of an exponential spread of demand for drugs in the future. We believe that the global sales of obesity drugs can reach more than 50 billion US dollars in 2030, which will make the expenditure on obesity rise to the top 12 in the global treatment field.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3c5aaf95bc7b7b1ed0f240500ad6a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679983\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679983","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102521229","content_text":"摩根士丹利认为，在2023年欧美公司利润承压，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，印度、沙特的发展等将成为股市主题。在过去的2022年，美联储暴力加息，俄乌冲突等多方力量共同作用持续影响市场。美股三大股指均创下2008年金融危机以来的最差年度表现。进入2023年，在全球经济放缓需求走弱的前景下，投资者开始思考，除了美联储以外，还有哪些主题将主导今年的市场。摩根士丹利分析团队最新总结了2023年全球股市的十大主题，包括：欧美公司利润率承压，从滞涨到衰退，中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景，ESG的评级驱动公司估值，下轮IPO及资金从二级市场流出，地球减少碳排放，印度、沙特的发展，ChatGPT带来的多种收入者时代以及肥胖症该怎么办等。主题一：欧美公司利润率的挑战摩根士丹利认为2023年公司的成本无法下降且议价能力下降，导致盈利受到影响，利润率承压。从美国来看，今年标普500的盈利将面临巨大压力，并面临“盈利悬崖”：我们认为，当成本的增速超过销售的增速时，公司盈利增长就会受到剧烈打击，出现经营杠杆系数为负的情况。考虑到（1）某些行业的就业市场依旧火爆，劳动力短缺的情况，工资成本或将维持在高位（2）在供应不足的情况下以较高价格填补的库存导致了库存过剩的情况，这种现象在2023年可能更加严重。因利润率大幅下降，摩根士丹利认为今年欧洲股市或将下跌10%：我们监控欧洲利润率的指标显示，未来12个月的利润率收缩将超过200个基点，与全球金融危机期间的情况相当。更高的工资，仍处高位的通胀、终端需求的放缓和定价能力的下降，都会导致我们预期的经营杠杆系数为负的情况。主题二：从滞胀到通缩甚至衰退摩根士丹利指出，通胀和不断攀升的利率是2022年资本市场和行业表现的主要驱动力。进入2023年，重点将转移到较低的通胀及较慢的增长：我们的美国经济学家预计，美国的通胀率将在未来几个季度大幅下降，这将给债券收益率带来下行压力，有利于防御性股票和GARP股票。摩根士丹利认为，库存将面临双重挑战，一方面供应链的瓶颈问题已基本消失，而另一方面需求端，特别是对货物的需求，正在放缓：大多数行业的供应链问题已经消失，美国的货物进口量正急剧上升。自金融危机以来，美国公司的库存与销售的比例一直在上升，现在正处于1990年以来的最高水平。我们认为许多公司正用打折来解决这个问题。主题三：中国及亚洲经济的乐观前景摩根士丹利认为，与西方经济体的发展将在2023年进一步放缓不同，随着不断优化的政策，中国及亚洲的经济发展前景将较为乐观，迎来复苏：叠加我们预期的美元疲软，应该会激发投资者们对亚洲、中东、中国资产（包括固定收益和股票）的兴趣。中国的市场及新兴市场的或将迎来反弹。主题四：ESG的评级驱动阿尔法摩根士丹利认为，2023年ESG的评级，将成为投资者寻找能够产生阿尔法和影响公司未来的一个关键焦点，摩根士丹利解释称：通过分析全球范围内的90只股票，我们分析师认为只要一个ESG指标有明显的改善，对其财务和估值都将产生积极影响。我们相信，与传统的评级相比，ESG评级能更好地衡量股票的未来。主题五： 为地球减少碳排放助力摩根士丹利分析称，未来可以为不同行业提供可持续发展技术的公司将成为社会发展的推动者：我们的分析师列出了超过50家改变了行业原本的 “游戏规则 ”，持续推进可持续发展技术的公司。5000亿美元的资本正在争先恐后地打破当下停止不前的减少碳排放现状。主题六：下轮IPO及资金从二级市场流出摩根士丹利称，当下正处于独角兽企业需要重新融资的时期，资金或将从二级市场流出，以支持投资：在过去的15年里，1420家公司中只有3%在下行周期进行了IPO；超过50%的公司都在未来继续进行IPO或以更高估值被收购。如果下一轮IPO会发生，那么对于大多数新晋的独角兽公司来说，最有可能在2023年年中发生。历史表明，在2021年进行融资的公司将在2023年第二季度左右进行下一轮融资，并在随后的9-12个月进行IPO。主题七：印度的十年摩根士丹利认为，在接下来的10年内，印度或成为世界第三大经济体和股票市场：我们认为，印度已经具备了在离岸外包、制造业投资、能源转型和国家先进的数字基础设施的推动下实现经济繁荣的条件。这些驱动力将使其在十年内成为世界第三大经济体和股票市场。主题八：沙特将快速崛起大摩指出，沙特2016年公布的 \"2030愿景 \"在2022年获得了巨大的前进动能，预计势头或将延伸到未来十年：为实现“2030愿景”沙特阿拉伯已经推出了价值超过1万亿美元的项目，旨在将该国转变为经济强国。我们估计，到2030年沙特或将支出约9000亿美元（而迄今为止 ，估计已花费500亿美元）。我们认为，韩国和印度的承包商以及奢侈品行业将受益。主题九：多种收入者时代摩根士丹利指出，随着ChatGPT和其他生成式人工智能的快速迭代和发展，开始引出一个问题：未来哪些工作将被取代。从中长期来看，未来的工作需要更大的灵活性：我们认为，现在对工作的追求已经开始转变为寻求多种收入来源。这正在创造一个庞大且不断增长的人群，他们的边际时间将被更好地用于不同的工作从而产生多种收入来源，Z世代的人正在引领这一模式的转变。主题十：肥胖症x社交媒体摩根士丹利认为，Wegovy（肥胖症用药）、Ozempic（降糖药）和semaglutide（减肥药物）正在TikTok短视视频及评论中被大量提及，将会带来针对肥胖症等一系列治疗领域的兴起：我们认为，对肥胖症过多讨论的结果是(1)对药物的了解，从而使得(2)对药物的需求有可能在未来出现指数级传播。我们相信全球针对肥胖症药物的销售额在2030年可以达到500亿美元以上，将使对肥胖症的支出上升到全球治疗领域支出的前12位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951073883,"gmtCreate":1673365716243,"gmtModify":1676538825292,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951073883","repostId":"1129242286","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129242286","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673360880,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129242286?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-10 22:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | Alibaba opened higher, Tesla rose more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129242286","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月10日周二，美股小幅低开，但随后拉升，截至发稿三大指数均转涨。美联储鲍威尔在今晚的讲话中表示，美联储的政策是有效的，我们的任务没有出错。阿里巴巴高开，涨约2%。杭州市委书记调研蚂蚁集团，杭州市人民","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, January 10, U.S. stocks experienced a slight open low, but then rose. As of press time, all three major indexes turned higher.<b>Fed Powell said in his speech tonight that the Fed's policies are effective and we have not gone wrong with our mission.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55213d1c864fbf260a9c22a95bbb2b0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Opened higher, up about 2%. Investigation by Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>, Hangzhou Municipal People's Government and Alibaba signed a comprehensive deepening strategic cooperation agreement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35609e447b1917b2057ddcbb64dada4d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>New car-making forces collectively rose at the beginning of the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 2% at the beginning of the session. It was reported that after announcing the price cut, Tesla China received 30,000 car orders within three days. But Tesla officials declined to comment. It is also reported that Tesla's electric vehicle factory in Austin, Texas will begin to expand in the coming weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3eeff30d0063f48d0f9768dd5ebdb72\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faraday Future fell more than 5% after receiving a notice from the Nasdaq exchange informing the company that it did not meet certain requirements for continued listing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit</a>After a 20% drop, Virgin Orbit admitted on social media that the first satellite launch from the UK failed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>It rose 7.1%. Despite the company's quarterly loss of about $393 million during the holiday season, it did not say it would file for bankruptcy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Downgraded Boeing's rating to hold from overweight, saying it lacks potential upside from current levels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>Fell slightly 1% amid reports that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Plans to abandon by 2025<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>Chip, switch to an in-house design.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>It fell more than 11% after the company lowered its performance guidance for 2023, which was lower than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | Alibaba opened higher, Tesla rose more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | Alibaba opened higher, Tesla rose more than 2%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-10 22:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, January 10, U.S. stocks experienced a slight open low, but then rose. As of press time, all three major indexes turned higher.<b>Fed Powell said in his speech tonight that the Fed's policies are effective and we have not gone wrong with our mission.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55213d1c864fbf260a9c22a95bbb2b0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Opened higher, up about 2%. Investigation by Hangzhou Municipal Party Committee<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">Ant Group</a>, Hangzhou Municipal People's Government and Alibaba signed a comprehensive deepening strategic cooperation agreement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35609e447b1917b2057ddcbb64dada4d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>New car-making forces collectively rose at the beginning of the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 2% at the beginning of the session. It was reported that after announcing the price cut, Tesla China received 30,000 car orders within three days. But Tesla officials declined to comment. It is also reported that Tesla's electric vehicle factory in Austin, Texas will begin to expand in the coming weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3eeff30d0063f48d0f9768dd5ebdb72\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faraday Future fell more than 5% after receiving a notice from the Nasdaq exchange informing the company that it did not meet certain requirements for continued listing.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit</a>After a 20% drop, Virgin Orbit admitted on social media that the first satellite launch from the UK failed.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>It rose 7.1%. Despite the company's quarterly loss of about $393 million during the holiday season, it did not say it would file for bankruptcy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Downgraded Boeing's rating to hold from overweight, saying it lacks potential upside from current levels.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">Broadcom</a>Fell slightly 1% amid reports that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Plans to abandon by 2025<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>Chip, switch to an in-house design.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>It fell more than 11% after the company lowered its performance guidance for 2023, which was lower than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129242286","content_text":"1月10日周二，美股小幅低开，但随后拉升，截至发稿三大指数均转涨。美联储鲍威尔在今晚的讲话中表示，美联储的政策是有效的，我们的任务没有出错。阿里巴巴高开，涨约2%。杭州市委书记调研蚂蚁集团，杭州市人民政府和阿里巴巴签订全面深化战略合作协议。造车新势力盘初集体走高，小鹏汽车涨超3%，理想汽车、蔚来涨2%。特斯拉盘初涨超2%，消息称在宣布降价后，特斯拉中国三天内获3万辆汽车订单。但特斯拉官方未予置评。另据报道，未来几周，特斯拉位于得克萨斯州奥斯汀的电动汽车工厂的规模将开始扩大。法拉第未来跌超5%，此前收到纳斯达克交易所的通知，告知公司不符合某些继续上市要求。维珍轨道大跌20%，维珍轨道在社交媒体承认，首次从英国发射卫星宣告失败。3B家居涨7.1%，尽管公司假日季出现了约3.93亿美元的季度亏损，但没有表示会申请破产。波音跌1.56%，摩根士丹利将波音的评级从增持下调至持有，称从当前水平看缺乏潜在的上升空间。博通微跌1%，有报道称苹果计划到2025年放弃博通芯片，改用内部设计。Illumina跌超11%，此前该公司下调2023年的业绩指引，且低于市场预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953083070,"gmtCreate":1673103706990,"gmtModify":1676538787044,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953083070","repostId":"1118862562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118862562","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673056273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118862562?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-07 09:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"FDA approves'most promising new drug to cure Alzheimer's","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118862562","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由百健和卫材研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai, lecanemab, the Alzheimer's drug used to slow cognitive decline, is a milestone in the decades-long search for a new treatment for Alzheimer's disease and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and leading cause of death in the United States.</b>On Friday, January 6, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accelerated the approval of monoclonal antibody therapies developed by Biogen and Eisai, which are still in clinical trials, to slow down cognitive decline. Alzheimer's drug lecanemab.</p><p>Eisai, which led the research and development of the new drug, set the price of the new drug at US $26,500 per year in the United States, and the trade name was Leqembi.</p><p>This new drug is the second drug for Alzheimer's disease that Biogen and Eisai have received early approval in less than two years.</p><p>Just at the end of last year, the Democratic Party of the U.S. House of Representatives released a report stating that the FDA \"inappropriately\" cooperated with Biogen, which developed its Alzheimer's treatment drug Aduhelm, before approving the drug in 2021. Not only did Aduhelm not clinically Improve symptoms significantly, and the FDA's approval process is also full of flaws.</p><p>The results of clinical trials announced by the FDA in November last year showed that lecanemab slowed down the cognitive decline of patients with mild impairment caused by Alzheimer's disease to a certain extent. The FDA's approval was also made accordingly, but this treatment There is also a risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p>If a new drug is expected to help patients more effectively than the drugs currently used clinically, the FDA will speed up the approval of the new drug. After approval, the new drug can be quickly introduced to the market. The two developing pharmaceutical companies of this drug applied for accelerated approval in July last year.</p><p>The FDA said in a statement:</p><p>Alzheimer's disease dramatically diminishes the living capacity of the sufferer and has devastating effects on their families. This treatment regimen is the latest therapy that targets and affects the condition, rather than just alleviating the symptoms of the disease. More than 6.5 million people in the United States suffer from Alzheimer's disease, which can irreversibly destroy patients' memory and thinking ability, and ultimately completely lose patients' execution ability.</p><p>The US Congress has just warned the FDA that the process of approving new drugs is full of flaws</p><p>At the end of December last year, the report of the U.S. House of Representatives said:</p><p>The FDA must act quickly to ensure that its review of pharmaceutical products for future Alzheimer's treatments does not lead to the same doubts about the integrity of the FDA review. House Oversight and Reform Committee Chairman Carolyn Maloney said:</p><p>I hope these findings will serve as a wake-up call for the FDA to reform its practices and call on members of Congress to take action and continue to monitor the pharmaceutical industry to ensure they don't let patients suffer. An FDA spokesperson said the agency is fully cooperating with the investigation:</p><p>One of our jobs is to interact frequently with pharmaceutical companies to ensure that we have enough information to inform our regulatory decisions. We will continue to do so because it is in the patient's best interest. That said, the agency has begun implementing reforms that are consistent with congressional recommendations. What is Lecanemab?</p><p>The latest FDA approved Lecanemab is a monoclonal antibody that targets a protein called amyloid that builds up in the brains of people with Alzheimer's disease. The antibody is administered IV every two weeks at a dose determined by the patient's body weight.</p><p>The FDA approval of lecanemab is based on the reduction in amyloid plaques observed in clinical trial participants receiving the treatment; The untreated participants, the placebo group, had no reduction in amyloid plaques.</p><p><b>The drug is the first to clearly show in recent studies that reducing amyloid provides clinical benefits to patients, although doctors say its effects are relatively modest and far from curative. Still, doctors say its approval is a milestone in the decades-long search for a new treatment for Alzheimer's and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and the leading cause of death in the United States.</b></p><p>Results from the clinical trial published in the New England Journal of Medicine, funded by Biogen and Eisai, found that people treated with lecanemab experienced a 27% slower rate of cognitive decline over 18 months compared to those who did not receive treatment.</p><p><b>Although lecanemab may slow cognitive decline to some extent, there are risks associated with this treatment.</b></p><p>Nearly 13% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced brain swelling, compared to about 2% of untreated patients. However, most of these symptoms are mild to moderate in severity, do not cause symptoms, and typically resolve within four months. About 3% of patients treated with lecanemab, though, had worse brain swelling, with symptoms including headaches, visual impairment and confusion.</p><p>Cerebral hemorrhage occurred in approximately 17% of patients treated with lecanemab compared to 9% of untreated patients, and the most common symptom associated with bleeding was dizziness.</p><p>Overall, 14% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced serious adverse reactions in clinical trials, compared with 11% of untreated patients.</p><p>The study's authors say longer clinical trials are needed to determine the efficacy and safety of lecanemab in patients with early-stage Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>The FDA said that the prescription information for lecanemab will include warnings about the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FDA approves'most promising new drug to cure Alzheimer's</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFDA approves'most promising new drug to cure Alzheimer's\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-07 09:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The monoclonal antibody therapy developed by Biogen and Eisai, lecanemab, the Alzheimer's drug used to slow cognitive decline, is a milestone in the decades-long search for a new treatment for Alzheimer's disease and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and leading cause of death in the United States.</b>On Friday, January 6, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accelerated the approval of monoclonal antibody therapies developed by Biogen and Eisai, which are still in clinical trials, to slow down cognitive decline. Alzheimer's drug lecanemab.</p><p>Eisai, which led the research and development of the new drug, set the price of the new drug at US $26,500 per year in the United States, and the trade name was Leqembi.</p><p>This new drug is the second drug for Alzheimer's disease that Biogen and Eisai have received early approval in less than two years.</p><p>Just at the end of last year, the Democratic Party of the U.S. House of Representatives released a report stating that the FDA \"inappropriately\" cooperated with Biogen, which developed its Alzheimer's treatment drug Aduhelm, before approving the drug in 2021. Not only did Aduhelm not clinically Improve symptoms significantly, and the FDA's approval process is also full of flaws.</p><p>The results of clinical trials announced by the FDA in November last year showed that lecanemab slowed down the cognitive decline of patients with mild impairment caused by Alzheimer's disease to a certain extent. The FDA's approval was also made accordingly, but this treatment There is also a risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p>If a new drug is expected to help patients more effectively than the drugs currently used clinically, the FDA will speed up the approval of the new drug. After approval, the new drug can be quickly introduced to the market. The two developing pharmaceutical companies of this drug applied for accelerated approval in July last year.</p><p>The FDA said in a statement:</p><p>Alzheimer's disease dramatically diminishes the living capacity of the sufferer and has devastating effects on their families. This treatment regimen is the latest therapy that targets and affects the condition, rather than just alleviating the symptoms of the disease. More than 6.5 million people in the United States suffer from Alzheimer's disease, which can irreversibly destroy patients' memory and thinking ability, and ultimately completely lose patients' execution ability.</p><p>The US Congress has just warned the FDA that the process of approving new drugs is full of flaws</p><p>At the end of December last year, the report of the U.S. House of Representatives said:</p><p>The FDA must act quickly to ensure that its review of pharmaceutical products for future Alzheimer's treatments does not lead to the same doubts about the integrity of the FDA review. House Oversight and Reform Committee Chairman Carolyn Maloney said:</p><p>I hope these findings will serve as a wake-up call for the FDA to reform its practices and call on members of Congress to take action and continue to monitor the pharmaceutical industry to ensure they don't let patients suffer. An FDA spokesperson said the agency is fully cooperating with the investigation:</p><p>One of our jobs is to interact frequently with pharmaceutical companies to ensure that we have enough information to inform our regulatory decisions. We will continue to do so because it is in the patient's best interest. That said, the agency has begun implementing reforms that are consistent with congressional recommendations. What is Lecanemab?</p><p>The latest FDA approved Lecanemab is a monoclonal antibody that targets a protein called amyloid that builds up in the brains of people with Alzheimer's disease. The antibody is administered IV every two weeks at a dose determined by the patient's body weight.</p><p>The FDA approval of lecanemab is based on the reduction in amyloid plaques observed in clinical trial participants receiving the treatment; The untreated participants, the placebo group, had no reduction in amyloid plaques.</p><p><b>The drug is the first to clearly show in recent studies that reducing amyloid provides clinical benefits to patients, although doctors say its effects are relatively modest and far from curative. Still, doctors say its approval is a milestone in the decades-long search for a new treatment for Alzheimer's and could mark the beginning of a shift in the treatment of the most common form of dementia and the leading cause of death in the United States.</b></p><p>Results from the clinical trial published in the New England Journal of Medicine, funded by Biogen and Eisai, found that people treated with lecanemab experienced a 27% slower rate of cognitive decline over 18 months compared to those who did not receive treatment.</p><p><b>Although lecanemab may slow cognitive decline to some extent, there are risks associated with this treatment.</b></p><p>Nearly 13% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced brain swelling, compared to about 2% of untreated patients. However, most of these symptoms are mild to moderate in severity, do not cause symptoms, and typically resolve within four months. About 3% of patients treated with lecanemab, though, had worse brain swelling, with symptoms including headaches, visual impairment and confusion.</p><p>Cerebral hemorrhage occurred in approximately 17% of patients treated with lecanemab compared to 9% of untreated patients, and the most common symptom associated with bleeding was dizziness.</p><p>Overall, 14% of patients treated with lecanemab experienced serious adverse reactions in clinical trials, compared with 11% of untreated patients.</p><p>The study's authors say longer clinical trials are needed to determine the efficacy and safety of lecanemab in patients with early-stage Alzheimer's disease.</p><p>The FDA said that the prescription information for lecanemab will include warnings about the risk of brain swelling and bleeding.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679266\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb4be1ff4aaa40ac88564f80f173158e","relate_stocks":{"BIIB":"渤健公司"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679266","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118862562","content_text":"由百健和卫材研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开始发生转变。1月6日周五，美国食品和药品管理局（FDA）加速批准尚在临床试验中、由百健（Biogen）和卫材（Eisai）研发的单克隆抗体疗法、用于减缓认知衰退的阿尔茨海默氏症药物lecanemab。领导该新药研发的卫材在美国将这种新药的定价设定为每年26500美元，商品名定为Leqembi。这一新药是百健和卫材在不到两年的时间里获得早期批准的第二种治疗阿尔茨海默氏症的药物。就在去年底，美国众议院民主党发布一份报告称，FDA在2021年批准其阿尔茨海默氏症治疗药物Aduhelm之前与研发该药品的百健Biogen“不恰当地”合作，不仅Aduhelm在临床上没有明显改善症状，而且FDA在审批过程中也充满瑕疵。去年11月FDA公布的临床试验结果表明，lecanemab在一定程度上减缓了因阿尔茨海默氏病导致的轻度损伤患者的认知能力下降，FDA的批准也是据此做出的，但这种治疗也存在脑肿胀和出血的风险。如果一种新药有望比当前临床使用的药物更有效地帮助患者，FDA会加快批准新药，获批之后，新药就能迅速推向市场。这款药物的两个开发药厂在去年7月申请加速批准。FDA在一份声明中说：阿尔茨海默氏症极大地削弱了患者的生活能力，并对他们的家庭造成毁灭性的影响。这种治疗方案是针对和影响该病症的最新疗法，而不仅仅是缓解疾病的症状。美国有超过650万人患有阿尔茨海默氏症，该病症会不可逆地破坏患者的记忆力、思维能力，并最终令患者的执行力完全丧失。美国国会刚刚警告FDA批准新药过程充斥瑕疵去年12月底，美国众议院的报告称：FDA必须迅速采取行动，确保其审查未来阿尔茨海默病治疗的药品不会导致对FDA审查的完整性产生同样的怀疑。众议院监督和改革委员会主席Carolyn Maloney说：我希望这些发现能敲响警钟，要求FDA改革其做法，并呼吁国会议员采取行动，继续监督制药行业，以确保他们不会让患者蒙受损失。FDA发言人表示，该机构全力配合调查：我们的工作之一是经常与医药公司互动，以确保我们有足够的信息来为我们的监管决策提供信息。我们将继续这样做，因为这符合患者的最大利益。也就是说，该机构已经开始实施符合国会建议的改革。Lecanemab是什么？FDA最新批准的Lecanemab是一种单克隆抗体，靶向一种称为淀粉样蛋白的蛋白质，这种蛋白质在阿尔茨海默氏症患者的大脑中积聚。该抗体每两周静脉注射一次，剂量由患者体重决定。FDA批准lecanemab是基于在接受治疗的临床试验参与者中观察到的淀粉样斑块减少；未接受治疗的参与者，即安慰剂组，淀粉样斑块没有减少。该药物是第一个在最近的研究中明确表明减少淀粉样蛋白会给患者带来临床益处的药物，尽管医生说它的效果相对适度并且远非治愈。尽管如此，医生们表示，它的批准是数十年来寻找新的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗方法的一个里程碑，并且可能标志着美国最常见形式的痴呆症和主要死亡原因的治疗开始发生转变。发表在《新英格兰医学杂志》上的临床试验结果发现，与未接受治疗的人相比，接受lecanemab治疗的人在18个月内的认知能力下降速度减慢了27%，该研究由百健和卫材资助。尽管lecanemab可能会在一定程度上减缓认知能力下降，但这种治疗也存在风险。接受lecanemab治疗的患者中有近13%出现脑肿胀，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例约为2%。 然而，大多数这些症状的严重程度为轻度至中度，不会引起症状，并且通常会在四个月内得到解决。不过，接受lecanemab治疗的患者中约有3%的脑肿胀更严重，症状包括头痛、视力障碍和意识模糊。接受lecanemab治疗的患者中约有17%出现脑出血，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例为9%，与出血相关的最常见症状是头晕。总体而言，接受lecanemab治疗的患者中有14%在临床试验中出现严重不良反应，而未接受治疗的患者中这一比例为11%。该研究的作者表示，需要更长时间的临床试验来确定lecanemab在早期阿尔茨海默病患者中的疗效和安全性。FDA则表示，lecanemab的处方信息将包括关于脑肿胀和出血风险的警告。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIIB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953089830,"gmtCreate":1673103643221,"gmtModify":1676538787030,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df15935fcd4975731e3a98dd79ee3803","width":"750","height":"1640"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953089830","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959513902,"gmtCreate":1673019964707,"gmtModify":1676538770880,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d68034699f9a1ee5674de029c86de391","width":"750","height":"1568"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959513902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950388650,"gmtCreate":1672673190271,"gmtModify":1676538718187,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950388650","repostId":"1137215289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137215289","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672629766,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137215289?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-02 11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137215289","media":"期货日报","summary":"有这样三位投资者，他们的投资生涯几乎横贯了整个20世纪，其中两人还沐浴过21世纪的曙光。他们经历了1929年的大崩盘，又经历了1987年的大恐慌以及1997年的下跌；他们三人加在一起，在熊市和牛市中拥","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>There are three investors whose investment careers have spanned almost the entire 20th century, and two of them have bathed in the dawn of the 21st century.</p><p>They experienced the Great Crash of 1929, the Great Panic of 1987 and the decline of 1997; Together, the three of them have more than 200 years of experience owning stocks in bear and bull markets.</p><p>These three investors are<b>Philip Carey, Philip Fisher, and Roy Newberg.</b></p><p>By 1997, Carey was 100 years old, Fisher was 90 years old, and Newberg was 94 years old. At that time, you can find them in their respective offices, and the colleagues at their desks may be their great-grandchildren.</p><p>Each of these three century-old men has written books, and Kairui is the author of Wisdom; Fisher is the author of How to Choose Growth Stocks and How to Get Rich by Investing in the Stock Market; Newberg is the author of Advice.</p><p>All four books have become immortal works in the investment world, enduring and new over time. They have experienced countless bear markets, big and small, and are very close to bear markets. Now, let's listen to their truth in bear markets.</p><p>Carrie lived to be 101 years old, born in the same year that the Dow Jones Index was launched (1884), and experienced 31 bull markets, 30 bear markets, 20 economic recessions, and the Great Depression in his life.</p><p>He graduated from Harvard University in 1917 and joined Harvard Business School. He flew British warplanes over France at the end of World War I. People were deeply impressed by his intelligence, kind smile and long-term investment performance.</p><p>In 1927, Carrie came to New York to join a company. This company manages a mutual fund, and investors bid $10 per share for this fund, while Kerry, an internal economist of the company, calculated that it was worth at most $1.</p><p>After the Great Crash of 1929, it topped out at less than $1 per share. Along with the panic and collapse of the market, Kerry survived. He remembers the 1929 experience most vividly. He believes that \"the Great Crash of 1929 is more exciting than horrible\".</p><p>Most economists are still bullish, firmly believing that the decline is only short-lived, and few people see any clouds on the horizon. But by 1932, a quarter of the workforce had lost their jobs. On the verge of despair, Kerry launched his mutual fund, the Vanguard Fund.</p><p>Fifty years later, the Vanguard Fund has made its holders wealthy, with a compound yield of up to 13% per year. When he left Vanguard Fund, he managed a private investment portfolio of $225 million himself. During Carrie's investing career, he was almost always bullish, despite \"underweighting\" some stocks amid sharp declines.</p><p>In 1987, the Dow fell 500 points in one day. On that day, he was giving a speech in Italy. He said, \"They want to know what will happen. I don't know myself. I still don't know.\"</p><p>Kerry believes he will not be more pessimistic than when the Dow was at 7,000 in 1997. \"I didn't do anything about it in my own portfolio,\" he said. \"If the stock price falls, so will the portfolio. I'm 100 years old and can fail at any time. If I fail at the bottom of the bear market, I will save a lot of inheritance tax.\"</p><p>Regarding Mr. Kairui's investment record,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Warren Buffett, the respected CEO of Wei Company, praised him for \"setting the best long-term investment record in the United States.\"</p><p>Mr. Kai Rui took the lead in advocating the concept of \"value investing\" in 1927. In the following year, he established the world's first mutual fund-Pioneer Fund. In more than half a century, the fund he managed made extraordinary achievements.</p><p>Mr. Kairui mainly invests in enterprises with continuous profit growth and dedicated management. His investment method is still adopted by countless professional investors.</p><p>Carrie always keeps things simple. He has established an excellent company, and his investment achievements are still the envy of the world today.</p><p><b>Kai Rui summarized the \"Twelve Codes\" of Speculation</b></p><p><b>1.</b>Hold no less than ten securities and cover at least five industries.</p><p><b>Two,</b>Re-evaluate each security held at least semi-annually.</p><p><b>Three,</b>Put at least more than half of your funds in securities that generate fixed income.</p><p><b>Four,</b>When analyzing any stock, list the Dividend yield as the least important consideration.</p><p><b>5.</b>Admit your losses quickly and don't rush to take profits.</p><p><b>VI.</b>Information on certain securities is not readily available or the time of publication is uncertain, and the investment funds in these securities must not exceed 25%.</p><p><b>VII.</b>For \"inside information\", we should avoid it like the plague.</p><p><b>8.</b>Be diligent in finding facts and never ask for advice.</p><p><b>9.</b>Ignore the rigid formulas for evaluating securities.</p><p><b>10.</b>When stock prices are high, interest rates are rising, and the economy is booming, at least half of the funds should be put in short-term bonds.</p><p><b>11.</b>Try not to borrow money unless the stock price is low, interest rates are falling or falling, and the economy is in recession.</p><p><b>XII.</b>Allocate an appropriate proportion of funds to buy shares and long-term stock options in companies with good prospects.</p><p>He said: \"The tenth rule recognizes the circular nature of stock market volatility and is also a compromise between the two schools of thought of long-term speculation. Some people think that long-term speculators should try to buy stocks when the short market is close to the bottom according to the long swing of the stock market, and then sell all their holdings when the long market is close to the high point, and put the money they get in short-term securities, waiting for another short market buying point.</p><p>Another group believes that sound common stocks should be bought and held for a long time, and only when the prospects of one stock deteriorate, they should be sold and buy other more promising stocks. The ideal plan seems to find a compromise between the two extremes. Although speculative investors mainly want to buy stocks that may increase in value, rather than be interested in the stock market trend itself, they cannot ignore the long-term trend of long and short markets for granted.</p><p>After the long market has developed to a considerable extent, once the foundation of monetary easing begins to be destroyed, speculators had better review their holdings and consider disposing of most of them. At this time, they must not be obsessed with the original purchase cost of securities. \"</p><p>Compared with Carey, Fisher, born in San Francisco in 1907, his parents were the youngest among many children in their families, and his father was a doctor. He was particularly close to his grandmother. As a child, Fisher knew about the existence of the stock market and the opportunities brought by stock price movements.</p><p>This is because when Fisher was in elementary school, he visited his grandmother one day after class. It happened that an uncle was talking with his grandmother about the future prosperity of industry and commerce and the possible impact on stocks.</p><p>Fisher said, \"A whole new world unfolded in front of my eyes.\" Although the two discussed for only 10 minutes, Fisher listened with relish. Before long, Fisher began buying and selling stocks. The 1920s was an era of U.S. stock frenzy, and Fisher also made a little money. However, his father was very unhappy about his buying and selling stocks, thinking it was just gambling.</p><p>In 1929, as his father said, Fisher was stuck at the bottom of his passion for \"gambling\". This one was later seen as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000900\">Modern Investment</a>One of the pioneers of the theory, the father of growth stock value investment strategies, the godfather investment guru, and one of the most respected and respected investment experts on Wall Street, in that year, he submitted an article \"The Worst Big Short Market Will Unfold\" article.</p><p>This is his most amazing stock market forecast, but unfortunately he is bearish and long. He said: \"I can't help but be confused by the charm of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some cheap stocks and objects worth investing in, because they haven't gone up yet.\"</p><p>He invested several thousand dollars into three stocks. These three stocks are all low P/E stocks, one is a locomotive company, the other is an advertising board company, and the other is a taxi company.</p><p>After the stock market crash, although Fisher predicted a plunge in radio stocks, his three stocks were not much better. By 1932, his losses were extremely heavy.</p><p>Although this experience convinced him that he should lighten his position in a bear market, he remained full in all the ups and downs for the next 60 years. After the age of 90, he is still an active manager with many big customers.</p><p>Visit companies in their portfolio at least twice a year. He prefers to own six to nine companies, but refuses to comment on what stocks he owns, because he thinks it is unfair for customers to disclose these stocks for free.</p><p>Only twice after 1929 did Fisher feel that another Great Recession was coming. In 1987, he issued a bear market alert in his Forbes column. In 1997, he said, I have a feeling that the road we are walking today is somewhere between 1927 and 1929.</p><p>\"Enough people are panicking, so we haven't reached the top yet, but when I hear talk about now being a new era, a highland of permanent prosperity, and some other baloney, I get upset. This is the same comment I heard from another Fisher after the Great Crash of 1929.\"</p><p><b>Fisher's ten non-principles for investors</b></p><p><b>1.</b>Don't buy companies in the startup stage.</p><p><b>Two,</b>Don't abandon a good stock just because it is not listed for trading.</p><p><b>Three,</b>Don't buy shares of a company just because you like the style of its annual report.</p><p><b>Four,</b>Just because a company's P/E ratio is high, don't mean that the future earnings growth has been roughly reflected in the price.</p><p><b>5.</b>Don't worry about every penny.</p><p><b>VI.</b>Don't overemphasize diversification.</p><p><b>VII.</b>Don't worry about buying stocks in the shadow of war.</p><p><b>8.</b>Don't forget your Gilbert and Sullivan.</p><p><b>9.</b>When buying really good growth stocks, in addition to considering price, don't forget the timing factor.</p><p><b>10.</b>Don't dance with the crowd.</p><p>Fisher said that stock investment sometimes inevitably requires luck in some places, but in the long run, good luck and bad luck will offset each other. If you want to succeed continuously, you must rely on skills and apply good principles. According to Fisher's principle framework, I believe that the future belongs to those who can discipline themselves and are willing to put in their efforts.</p><p>Newberg, who was born in the United States in 1903, also left Paris to come to Wall Street in 1929. He was the only person on Wall Street who lived through the Great Depression of 1929 and the stock market crash of 1987 at the same time.</p><p>When he first arrived on Wall Street, he began his life as a broker and trader. In March of that year, he bought his first stock, but he also shorted the stock. At that time, he was shorting the stock of American Broadcasting Corporation (RCA), which had a price of $574 before one share was divided into five shares, and there was no reason for it to overcorrect its stock price.</p><p>Newberg looked for older investors to find his explanation, but he didn't get an enlightening answer. People all say, \"We are entering an era of broadcasting\". Newberg had a premonition that once the fuelers made profits, the stock would collapse, and eventually the price of this stock reached $2.</p><p>Newberg, meanwhile, made a profit when he sold short. Five months later, when the Dow recovered half of its decline, financiers and political leaders declared it an anomaly and predicted that prosperity would come immediately. \"They were all wrong,\" Newberg later recalled.</p><p>Newberg broke even in this crash and subsequent results, with profits from short positions equal to his losses from long positions. Neuberg founded his own company in 1939. In 1950, he founded the low-commission \"Protector Fund\" and was the father of open-end funds in the United States.</p><p>Newberg is bullish \"95% of the time\" and only occasionally shorts. The same technique also happened in later investment years. \"I hedged my portfolio in the late 1972-1973,\" Newberg recalled. In 1987, \"I hedged my portfolio after a ridiculous price hike.\"</p><p>In 1997, after a ridiculous rally, \"I hedged again. At this point, I'm selling short stock futures, selling short<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>, short selling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>-The most popular drink in the world. \"</p><p>Newberg explained that Coca-Cola sales grew only 3% in 1996. \"I can't figure out why people are willing to pay 42 times P/E's price.\" But he added, \"I've been a fool on this so far. I should have realized that the whole world is addicted to Coca-Cola.\"</p><p><b>Newberg's Ten Principles of Investing</b></p><p><b>1. Understand yourself</b></p><p>The success of investors is based on existing knowledge and experience. You'd better invest professionally in areas you're familiar with. If you know little or don't analyze the company and its details at all, you'd better stay away from it.</p><p>You should also check that you are physically and mentally qualified before you actually become an investor. A good body is the foundation of your informed judgment, don't underestimate it.</p><p><b>2. Learn from successful investors</b></p><p>Even successful investors, many of whom have had a tough time towards the end of the decade. I have talked to many of them, and only a small number of them believe that they can still grasp the situation of the market in 1996 when the stock market rose again and again.</p><p><b>Third, \"Yangshi\" thinking</b></p><p>The influence of individual investors on a stock can sometimes make it fluctuate by 10 percentage points, but that is only a moment, usually a day, not more than a week. This market is neither a bull market nor a bear market.</p><p>I call such markets \"sheep markets\". Sometimes the flock was slaughtered, sometimes the wool was sheared off. Sometimes one can lucky escape and keep the fleece. The \"sheep market\" is somewhat similar to the fashion industry. Fashion masters design new fashions, second-rate designers imitate it, and thousands of people chase after it, so skirts are short and long.</p><p><b>4. Adhere to long-term thinking</b></p><p>Paying attention to short-term investment tends to ignore the importance of long-term investment. Enterprises often invest a lot of money to make long-term investments. Of course, there will be short-term effects at the same time. If the short-term effects dominate, it will endanger the company's development and prospects.</p><p>Profit should be based on long-term investment, effective management and seizing opportunities. If these are arranged well, short-term investment will not dominate.</p><p><b>5. Advance and retreat in time</b></p><p>Timing may not determine everything, but timing can determine many things. It could have been a good long-term investment, but if you buy it at the wrong time, the situation will be bad.</p><p>Sometimes, if you buy a highly speculative stock at the right time, you can also make money. Good securities analysts can do well without following the trend of the market, but if they follow the trend, the operation is easier.</p><p>Seizing the favorable opportunity is partly intuitive, and partly the opposite. The timing depends on one's own independent thinking. In economic operation, the upward trend may occur in the downward trend, and the recession will begin from the climax.</p><p>In some periods, ordinary stocks are the best investment, but in another period, perhaps the real estate industry is the best. Everything is changing, and people have to learn to change. I have absolutely no belief in the existence of a permanent industry.</p><p><b>6. Carefully analyze the company's status</b></p><p>It is necessary to carefully study the company's management status, leadership, company performance and company goals. In particular, it is necessary to carefully analyze the company's real asset status, including equipment value and net assets per share. This concept was widely valued at the beginning of the century, but it was almost forgotten since then.</p><p>If you can control the overall market price of a company, you can make more profits from it.</p><p><b>7. Don't fall in love</b></p><p>In this world full of adventures, because there are many possibilities, people will be obsessed with a certain idea, a certain person, a certain ideal. I'm afraid the last thing that can make people obsessed is stocks. But it's just a piece of paper to prove your ownership of a business, it's just a symbol of money.</p><p><b>8. Investment diversification, but no hedging transactions</b></p><p>Hedging is to take long positions on some stocks and short positions on others. Professionals use hedging to avoid risks in the daily market, and sometimes hedging is just a gamble for new entrants to the market. I'm not in favor of this. But there's no law against it either.</p><p>Hedging is indeed a revolution in modern stocks. A century ago, when you bought the same stock from new york and London markets, the price difference between cities was only slight. Experts buy a stock from one market and sell it in another. Although the money is small, it is still profitable.</p><p><b>9. Observe the surrounding environment</b></p><p>By environment, I mean the environment where the market is going and the world in general. You need to adapt those patterns I gave you to fit the workings of your market.</p><p>Stocks do not divide into seasons, and it is not necessary to invest according to the calendar. Remember, for investors, all times are risky. For those who enjoy life and investment happiness, although the seasons are changeable, opportunities are available at any time.</p><p><b>10. Don't stick to a rut</b></p><p>It is necessary to change one's way of thinking according to the changes of the situation. My point is that you should take the initiative to change according to changes in economic and political factors. As for technology, sometimes we can control it, but sometimes it is out of our control.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"qhrb_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Investment Philosophy of Three Century Investment Masters\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期货日报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-02 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>There are three investors whose investment careers have spanned almost the entire 20th century, and two of them have bathed in the dawn of the 21st century.</p><p>They experienced the Great Crash of 1929, the Great Panic of 1987 and the decline of 1997; Together, the three of them have more than 200 years of experience owning stocks in bear and bull markets.</p><p>These three investors are<b>Philip Carey, Philip Fisher, and Roy Newberg.</b></p><p>By 1997, Carey was 100 years old, Fisher was 90 years old, and Newberg was 94 years old. At that time, you can find them in their respective offices, and the colleagues at their desks may be their great-grandchildren.</p><p>Each of these three century-old men has written books, and Kairui is the author of Wisdom; Fisher is the author of How to Choose Growth Stocks and How to Get Rich by Investing in the Stock Market; Newberg is the author of Advice.</p><p>All four books have become immortal works in the investment world, enduring and new over time. They have experienced countless bear markets, big and small, and are very close to bear markets. Now, let's listen to their truth in bear markets.</p><p>Carrie lived to be 101 years old, born in the same year that the Dow Jones Index was launched (1884), and experienced 31 bull markets, 30 bear markets, 20 economic recessions, and the Great Depression in his life.</p><p>He graduated from Harvard University in 1917 and joined Harvard Business School. He flew British warplanes over France at the end of World War I. People were deeply impressed by his intelligence, kind smile and long-term investment performance.</p><p>In 1927, Carrie came to New York to join a company. This company manages a mutual fund, and investors bid $10 per share for this fund, while Kerry, an internal economist of the company, calculated that it was worth at most $1.</p><p>After the Great Crash of 1929, it topped out at less than $1 per share. Along with the panic and collapse of the market, Kerry survived. He remembers the 1929 experience most vividly. He believes that \"the Great Crash of 1929 is more exciting than horrible\".</p><p>Most economists are still bullish, firmly believing that the decline is only short-lived, and few people see any clouds on the horizon. But by 1932, a quarter of the workforce had lost their jobs. On the verge of despair, Kerry launched his mutual fund, the Vanguard Fund.</p><p>Fifty years later, the Vanguard Fund has made its holders wealthy, with a compound yield of up to 13% per year. When he left Vanguard Fund, he managed a private investment portfolio of $225 million himself. During Carrie's investing career, he was almost always bullish, despite \"underweighting\" some stocks amid sharp declines.</p><p>In 1987, the Dow fell 500 points in one day. On that day, he was giving a speech in Italy. He said, \"They want to know what will happen. I don't know myself. I still don't know.\"</p><p>Kerry believes he will not be more pessimistic than when the Dow was at 7,000 in 1997. \"I didn't do anything about it in my own portfolio,\" he said. \"If the stock price falls, so will the portfolio. I'm 100 years old and can fail at any time. If I fail at the bottom of the bear market, I will save a lot of inheritance tax.\"</p><p>Regarding Mr. Kairui's investment record,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Warren Buffett, the respected CEO of Wei Company, praised him for \"setting the best long-term investment record in the United States.\"</p><p>Mr. Kai Rui took the lead in advocating the concept of \"value investing\" in 1927. In the following year, he established the world's first mutual fund-Pioneer Fund. In more than half a century, the fund he managed made extraordinary achievements.</p><p>Mr. Kairui mainly invests in enterprises with continuous profit growth and dedicated management. His investment method is still adopted by countless professional investors.</p><p>Carrie always keeps things simple. He has established an excellent company, and his investment achievements are still the envy of the world today.</p><p><b>Kai Rui summarized the \"Twelve Codes\" of Speculation</b></p><p><b>1.</b>Hold no less than ten securities and cover at least five industries.</p><p><b>Two,</b>Re-evaluate each security held at least semi-annually.</p><p><b>Three,</b>Put at least more than half of your funds in securities that generate fixed income.</p><p><b>Four,</b>When analyzing any stock, list the Dividend yield as the least important consideration.</p><p><b>5.</b>Admit your losses quickly and don't rush to take profits.</p><p><b>VI.</b>Information on certain securities is not readily available or the time of publication is uncertain, and the investment funds in these securities must not exceed 25%.</p><p><b>VII.</b>For \"inside information\", we should avoid it like the plague.</p><p><b>8.</b>Be diligent in finding facts and never ask for advice.</p><p><b>9.</b>Ignore the rigid formulas for evaluating securities.</p><p><b>10.</b>When stock prices are high, interest rates are rising, and the economy is booming, at least half of the funds should be put in short-term bonds.</p><p><b>11.</b>Try not to borrow money unless the stock price is low, interest rates are falling or falling, and the economy is in recession.</p><p><b>XII.</b>Allocate an appropriate proportion of funds to buy shares and long-term stock options in companies with good prospects.</p><p>He said: \"The tenth rule recognizes the circular nature of stock market volatility and is also a compromise between the two schools of thought of long-term speculation. Some people think that long-term speculators should try to buy stocks when the short market is close to the bottom according to the long swing of the stock market, and then sell all their holdings when the long market is close to the high point, and put the money they get in short-term securities, waiting for another short market buying point.</p><p>Another group believes that sound common stocks should be bought and held for a long time, and only when the prospects of one stock deteriorate, they should be sold and buy other more promising stocks. The ideal plan seems to find a compromise between the two extremes. Although speculative investors mainly want to buy stocks that may increase in value, rather than be interested in the stock market trend itself, they cannot ignore the long-term trend of long and short markets for granted.</p><p>After the long market has developed to a considerable extent, once the foundation of monetary easing begins to be destroyed, speculators had better review their holdings and consider disposing of most of them. At this time, they must not be obsessed with the original purchase cost of securities. \"</p><p>Compared with Carey, Fisher, born in San Francisco in 1907, his parents were the youngest among many children in their families, and his father was a doctor. He was particularly close to his grandmother. As a child, Fisher knew about the existence of the stock market and the opportunities brought by stock price movements.</p><p>This is because when Fisher was in elementary school, he visited his grandmother one day after class. It happened that an uncle was talking with his grandmother about the future prosperity of industry and commerce and the possible impact on stocks.</p><p>Fisher said, \"A whole new world unfolded in front of my eyes.\" Although the two discussed for only 10 minutes, Fisher listened with relish. Before long, Fisher began buying and selling stocks. The 1920s was an era of U.S. stock frenzy, and Fisher also made a little money. However, his father was very unhappy about his buying and selling stocks, thinking it was just gambling.</p><p>In 1929, as his father said, Fisher was stuck at the bottom of his passion for \"gambling\". This one was later seen as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000900\">Modern Investment</a>One of the pioneers of the theory, the father of growth stock value investment strategies, the godfather investment guru, and one of the most respected and respected investment experts on Wall Street, in that year, he submitted an article \"The Worst Big Short Market Will Unfold\" article.</p><p>This is his most amazing stock market forecast, but unfortunately he is bearish and long. He said: \"I can't help but be confused by the charm of the stock market. So I looked everywhere for some cheap stocks and objects worth investing in, because they haven't gone up yet.\"</p><p>He invested several thousand dollars into three stocks. These three stocks are all low P/E stocks, one is a locomotive company, the other is an advertising board company, and the other is a taxi company.</p><p>After the stock market crash, although Fisher predicted a plunge in radio stocks, his three stocks were not much better. By 1932, his losses were extremely heavy.</p><p>Although this experience convinced him that he should lighten his position in a bear market, he remained full in all the ups and downs for the next 60 years. After the age of 90, he is still an active manager with many big customers.</p><p>Visit companies in their portfolio at least twice a year. He prefers to own six to nine companies, but refuses to comment on what stocks he owns, because he thinks it is unfair for customers to disclose these stocks for free.</p><p>Only twice after 1929 did Fisher feel that another Great Recession was coming. In 1987, he issued a bear market alert in his Forbes column. In 1997, he said, I have a feeling that the road we are walking today is somewhere between 1927 and 1929.</p><p>\"Enough people are panicking, so we haven't reached the top yet, but when I hear talk about now being a new era, a highland of permanent prosperity, and some other baloney, I get upset. This is the same comment I heard from another Fisher after the Great Crash of 1929.\"</p><p><b>Fisher's ten non-principles for investors</b></p><p><b>1.</b>Don't buy companies in the startup stage.</p><p><b>Two,</b>Don't abandon a good stock just because it is not listed for trading.</p><p><b>Three,</b>Don't buy shares of a company just because you like the style of its annual report.</p><p><b>Four,</b>Just because a company's P/E ratio is high, don't mean that the future earnings growth has been roughly reflected in the price.</p><p><b>5.</b>Don't worry about every penny.</p><p><b>VI.</b>Don't overemphasize diversification.</p><p><b>VII.</b>Don't worry about buying stocks in the shadow of war.</p><p><b>8.</b>Don't forget your Gilbert and Sullivan.</p><p><b>9.</b>When buying really good growth stocks, in addition to considering price, don't forget the timing factor.</p><p><b>10.</b>Don't dance with the crowd.</p><p>Fisher said that stock investment sometimes inevitably requires luck in some places, but in the long run, good luck and bad luck will offset each other. If you want to succeed continuously, you must rely on skills and apply good principles. According to Fisher's principle framework, I believe that the future belongs to those who can discipline themselves and are willing to put in their efforts.</p><p>Newberg, who was born in the United States in 1903, also left Paris to come to Wall Street in 1929. He was the only person on Wall Street who lived through the Great Depression of 1929 and the stock market crash of 1987 at the same time.</p><p>When he first arrived on Wall Street, he began his life as a broker and trader. In March of that year, he bought his first stock, but he also shorted the stock. At that time, he was shorting the stock of American Broadcasting Corporation (RCA), which had a price of $574 before one share was divided into five shares, and there was no reason for it to overcorrect its stock price.</p><p>Newberg looked for older investors to find his explanation, but he didn't get an enlightening answer. People all say, \"We are entering an era of broadcasting\". Newberg had a premonition that once the fuelers made profits, the stock would collapse, and eventually the price of this stock reached $2.</p><p>Newberg, meanwhile, made a profit when he sold short. Five months later, when the Dow recovered half of its decline, financiers and political leaders declared it an anomaly and predicted that prosperity would come immediately. \"They were all wrong,\" Newberg later recalled.</p><p>Newberg broke even in this crash and subsequent results, with profits from short positions equal to his losses from long positions. Neuberg founded his own company in 1939. In 1950, he founded the low-commission \"Protector Fund\" and was the father of open-end funds in the United States.</p><p>Newberg is bullish \"95% of the time\" and only occasionally shorts. The same technique also happened in later investment years. \"I hedged my portfolio in the late 1972-1973,\" Newberg recalled. In 1987, \"I hedged my portfolio after a ridiculous price hike.\"</p><p>In 1997, after a ridiculous rally, \"I hedged again. At this point, I'm selling short stock futures, selling short<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>, short selling<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>-The most popular drink in the world. \"</p><p>Newberg explained that Coca-Cola sales grew only 3% in 1996. \"I can't figure out why people are willing to pay 42 times P/E's price.\" But he added, \"I've been a fool on this so far. I should have realized that the whole world is addicted to Coca-Cola.\"</p><p><b>Newberg's Ten Principles of Investing</b></p><p><b>1. Understand yourself</b></p><p>The success of investors is based on existing knowledge and experience. You'd better invest professionally in areas you're familiar with. If you know little or don't analyze the company and its details at all, you'd better stay away from it.</p><p>You should also check that you are physically and mentally qualified before you actually become an investor. A good body is the foundation of your informed judgment, don't underestimate it.</p><p><b>2. Learn from successful investors</b></p><p>Even successful investors, many of whom have had a tough time towards the end of the decade. I have talked to many of them, and only a small number of them believe that they can still grasp the situation of the market in 1996 when the stock market rose again and again.</p><p><b>Third, \"Yangshi\" thinking</b></p><p>The influence of individual investors on a stock can sometimes make it fluctuate by 10 percentage points, but that is only a moment, usually a day, not more than a week. This market is neither a bull market nor a bear market.</p><p>I call such markets \"sheep markets\". Sometimes the flock was slaughtered, sometimes the wool was sheared off. Sometimes one can lucky escape and keep the fleece. The \"sheep market\" is somewhat similar to the fashion industry. Fashion masters design new fashions, second-rate designers imitate it, and thousands of people chase after it, so skirts are short and long.</p><p><b>4. Adhere to long-term thinking</b></p><p>Paying attention to short-term investment tends to ignore the importance of long-term investment. Enterprises often invest a lot of money to make long-term investments. Of course, there will be short-term effects at the same time. If the short-term effects dominate, it will endanger the company's development and prospects.</p><p>Profit should be based on long-term investment, effective management and seizing opportunities. If these are arranged well, short-term investment will not dominate.</p><p><b>5. Advance and retreat in time</b></p><p>Timing may not determine everything, but timing can determine many things. It could have been a good long-term investment, but if you buy it at the wrong time, the situation will be bad.</p><p>Sometimes, if you buy a highly speculative stock at the right time, you can also make money. Good securities analysts can do well without following the trend of the market, but if they follow the trend, the operation is easier.</p><p>Seizing the favorable opportunity is partly intuitive, and partly the opposite. The timing depends on one's own independent thinking. In economic operation, the upward trend may occur in the downward trend, and the recession will begin from the climax.</p><p>In some periods, ordinary stocks are the best investment, but in another period, perhaps the real estate industry is the best. Everything is changing, and people have to learn to change. I have absolutely no belief in the existence of a permanent industry.</p><p><b>6. Carefully analyze the company's status</b></p><p>It is necessary to carefully study the company's management status, leadership, company performance and company goals. In particular, it is necessary to carefully analyze the company's real asset status, including equipment value and net assets per share. This concept was widely valued at the beginning of the century, but it was almost forgotten since then.</p><p>If you can control the overall market price of a company, you can make more profits from it.</p><p><b>7. Don't fall in love</b></p><p>In this world full of adventures, because there are many possibilities, people will be obsessed with a certain idea, a certain person, a certain ideal. I'm afraid the last thing that can make people obsessed is stocks. But it's just a piece of paper to prove your ownership of a business, it's just a symbol of money.</p><p><b>8. Investment diversification, but no hedging transactions</b></p><p>Hedging is to take long positions on some stocks and short positions on others. Professionals use hedging to avoid risks in the daily market, and sometimes hedging is just a gamble for new entrants to the market. I'm not in favor of this. But there's no law against it either.</p><p>Hedging is indeed a revolution in modern stocks. A century ago, when you bought the same stock from new york and London markets, the price difference between cities was only slight. Experts buy a stock from one market and sell it in another. Although the money is small, it is still profitable.</p><p><b>9. Observe the surrounding environment</b></p><p>By environment, I mean the environment where the market is going and the world in general. You need to adapt those patterns I gave you to fit the workings of your market.</p><p>Stocks do not divide into seasons, and it is not necessary to invest according to the calendar. Remember, for investors, all times are risky. For those who enjoy life and investment happiness, although the seasons are changeable, opportunities are available at any time.</p><p><b>10. Don't stick to a rut</b></p><p>It is necessary to change one's way of thinking according to the changes of the situation. My point is that you should take the initiative to change according to changes in economic and political factors. As for technology, sometimes we can control it, but sometimes it is out of our control.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s-2BdqAXtKtUGrjI1TloGQ\">期货日报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s-2BdqAXtKtUGrjI1TloGQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137215289","content_text":"有这样三位投资者，他们的投资生涯几乎横贯了整个20世纪，其中两人还沐浴过21世纪的曙光。他们经历了1929年的大崩盘，又经历了1987年的大恐慌以及1997年的下跌；他们三人加在一起，在熊市和牛市中拥有股票的经验超过200年。这三位投资者分别是菲利普·凯睿、菲利普·费雪以及罗伊·纽伯格。到1997年的时候，凯睿100岁、费雪90岁、纽伯格94岁。那时，你可以在他们各自的办公室里找到他们，而他们桌子旁边的同事可能是他们的曾孙。这三位世纪老人各自都写过书，凯睿著有《智慧》；费雪著有《怎样选择成长股》和《股市投资致富之道》；纽伯格著有《忠告》。这四本书都成为投资界中的不朽之作，历久而弥新。他们经历了无数个大大小小的熊市，对熊市十分亲密，现在，让我们倾听他们在熊市中的真言。凯睿活到101岁，出生于推出道琼斯指数的同一年(1884年)，一生经历了31次牛市、30次熊市、20次经济衰退以及大萧条时期。他1917年毕业于哈佛大学，并加入了哈佛商学院，在第一次世界大战末期驾驶着英国战机穿梭在法国上空，他的才智、亲切的微笑以及长期投资业绩给人们留下了深刻的印象。1927年凯睿来到纽约，加入一个公司。这个公司管理着一只共同基金，投资者为这只基金每股出价10美元，而作为公司内部的经济学家凯睿计算它最多值1美元。1929年大崩盘后，它每股最高不到1美元。伴随着市场的恐慌和崩溃，凯睿幸存了下来。他对1929年的经历记忆最为清晰。他认为，“1929年大崩盘与其说恐怖，不如说更加令人兴奋”。多数经济学家依然看多，坚信下跌只是短暂的，几乎没有人看到地平线上有任何阴云。可是到1932年，有四分之一的劳动力失去了工作。在快要绝望的情况下，凯睿发起了他的共同基金——先锋基金。50年后，先锋基金使其持有者富有，每年的复合收益率高达13%。当他离开先锋基金后，又自己管理着2.25亿美元的私人投资组合。在凯睿的投资生涯中，尽管他在大幅下跌中“减持”了一些股票，但他几乎总是看多。1987年道指一天下跌了500点，那天，他正在意大利演讲，他说，“他们想知道将会发生什么，我自己也不知道，我现在仍然不知道。”凯睿相信他不会比1997年道指在7000点时更悲观。“在我自己的投资组合里我没有为此做任何事，”他说，“如果股价下跌，投资组合也会下跌。我已经100岁了，随时都有可能失灵。如果我在熊市的底部失灵，将会节约很多遗产税。”对于凯睿先生的投资记录，伯克希尔韦公司受人尊敬的CEO沃伦巴菲特称赞他“创下了美国最好的长线投资纪录”。凯睿先生1927年率先倡导“价值投资”理念，第二年他就成立了全球第一只共同基金——先锋基金，在半个多世纪内，他所管理的这只基金取得了非凡的成就。凯睿先生主要投资那些利润持续增长、管理层乐于奉献的企业，他的这个投资方法仍被无数的专业投资人士所采用。凯睿总是让事情保持简单，他成立了一家卓越的公司，他所取得的投资成就依然受到当今世界的羡慕。凯睿总结了投机的“十二守则”一、持有的证券不要少于十种，涵盖的行业至少为五种。二、至少每半年重新评估所持有的每一种证券。三、至少把一半以上的资金放在能产生固定收益的证券上。四、分析任何股票时，把股息收益率列为最不重要的考虑因素。五、迅速认赔，不要急于获利了结。六、某些证券的资料不容易获得或公布的时间不确定，这部分证券的投入资金绝不能超过25%。七、对于“内线消息”，要像逃避瘟疫一样避之唯恐不及。八、勤于寻找事实，绝不寻求建议。九、不必理会评估证券的呆板公式。十、当股价处在高位、利率攀升、景气繁荣时，至少应该把一半的资金放在短期债券上。十一、尽量不要借钱，除非是股价处在低位、利率下降或走低、景气衰退。十二、拨出适当比例的资金，购买前景良好公司的股票和长期认股权。他说：“第十条规则是承认股市波动的循环性质，也是长期投机两派思潮的妥协。有些人认为长期投机者应该根据股市的长波段交易，设法在空头市场接近底部时购买股票，然后在多头市场接近最高点时卖掉全部持股，并把得到的钱放在短期证券中，等待另一次空头市场的买点。另一派人认为，应该购买健全的普通股长期持有，只有在一只股票的前景变差后才卖掉，转买其他更有希望的股票。理想的计划似乎应该在两个极端之间寻找折中点，虽然投机性投资人主要是想买到可能增值的股票，而不是对股市趋势本身有兴趣，但不能理所当然地忽视多头和空头市场的长期走势。多头市场经过相当程度的发展之后，一旦银根宽松的基础开始毁坏，投机者最好检视自己的持股，考虑处分其中大部分持股，这时绝对不可执着于证券当初的买进成本。”相比于凯睿，1907年生于三藩市的费雪，父母均是各自家中众多儿女中排行最小的，父亲是个医生。他与祖母特别亲近。小时候费雪就知道股票市场的存在以及股价变动带来的机会。这缘于费雪上小学时，有一天下课后去看望祖母，恰好一位伯父正与祖母谈论未来工商业的景气，以及股票可能受到的影响。费雪说：“一个全新的世界展开在我眼前。”两人虽然只讨论了10分钟，但是费雪却听得津津有味。不久，费雪就开始买卖股票。1920年代是美股狂热的年代，费雪亦赚到一点钱。然而他父亲对于其买卖股票的事情很不高兴，认为这只是赌博。一如他父亲所说，1929年，费雪被他所热衷的“赌博”困在谷底。这位后来被视为现代投资理论的开路先锋之一，成长股价值投资策略之父，教父级的投资大师，华尔街极受尊重和推崇的投资专家之一的人，在那一年，曾提交一份《25年来最严重的大空头市场将展开》的文章。这是他最令人赞叹的股市预测，可惜他看空做多。他说：“我免不了被股市的魅力所惑。于是我到处寻找一些还算便宜的股票，以及值得投资的对象，因为它们还没涨到位。”他投入几千美元到3只股票中。这3只股票均是低P／E股，一家是火车头公司，一家是广告看板公司，另一家是出租汽车公司。股市崩溃后，尽管费雪预测无线电股将暴跌，但是他持有的3只股票也好不了多少，到1932年，他的损失极为惨重。尽管这段经历让他相信在熊市中应该减轻仓位，但在这之后的60年中，他在所有的上涨和下跌中都保持满仓投资。他在90岁以后，依然是一个积极的管理者，有很多大客户。每年至少走访在其投资组合中的公司两次。他偏好于拥有6~9个公司，但是对于他拥有什么股票拒绝评论，因为他认为对于客户而言，无偿透露这些股票是不公平的。在1929年后费雪只有两次感觉到另一次大衰退即将到来。1987年，他在《福布斯》的专栏上发布了一次熊市警报。1997年，他说，我有一种感觉，今天我们正走的路就是1927~1929年之间的某个地方。“足够的人感到恐慌，因此我们还没有达到顶部，但是当我听到谈论关于现在是一个新时代，一个永久繁荣的高地，以及其他一些胡扯时，我感到不安。这和我在1929年大崩盘之后从另一个费雪那里听到的评论相同。”费雪的投资人十不原则一、不买处于创业阶段的公司。二、不要因为一只好股票未上市交易，就弃之不顾。三、不要因为你喜欢某公司年报的格调，就去买该公司的股票。四、不要因为一家公司的本益比高，便表示未来的盈余成长已大致反映在价格上。五、不要锱铢计较。六、不要过度强调分散投资。七、不要担心在战争阴影笼罩下买进股票。八、不要忘了你的吉尔伯特和沙利文。九、买进真正优秀的成长股时，除了考虑价格，不要忘了时机因素。十、不要随群众起舞。费雪说，股票投资，有时难免有些地方需要靠运气，但长期而言，好运、倒霉会相抵，想要持续成功，必须靠技能和运用良好的原则。根据费雪的原则架构，相信未来属于那些能够自律且肯付出心血的人。1903年出生于美国的纽伯格也是在1929年离开巴黎来到华尔街的。他是唯一同时在华尔街经历了1929年大萧条和1987年股市崩溃的人。初到华尔街的时候，他开始了在经纪商和交易员中的生活。当年3月份，买了自己的第一只股票，但他也卖空股票。当时他卖空的是美国广播公司（RCA）的股票，这只股票在1股分为5股前价格达到了574美元，并且没有什么原因会导致它过分修正股价。纽伯格找老一点的投资者寻找其解释，没有得到有启发的答案，人们都这样说，“我们正在进入一个广播的时代”。纽伯格预感到一旦推波助澜者获取利润将发生崩盘，最终这只股票的价格达到2美元。与此同时，纽伯格在卖空时赚取了利润。5个月后，当道指恢复其跌幅一半时，金融家和政治领袖们宣布这是一种反常情况，预测繁荣马上就会来临。纽伯格后来回忆道：“他们都错了。”纽伯格在这次大崩盘和后续结果中盈亏平衡，来自空头头寸的盈利与他来自多头头寸的亏损相等。1939年纽伯格创立了自己的公司。1950年创建低佣金的“保护者基金”，为美国开放式基金之父。在“95%的时间”纽伯格是看多的，只有偶尔会做空。同样的手法也发生在以后的投资岁月里。“我在1972~1973年后期对冲了我的投资组合，”纽伯格回忆说，1987年，“我在一轮可笑的价格上涨之后，对投资组合进行了对冲。”1997年，在经历了一轮可笑的上涨之后，“我又一次进行了对冲。在目前这个时点，我卖空股指期货，卖空微软，卖空可口可乐——这个世界上最受欢迎的饮料。”纽伯格解释说，1996年可口可乐销售仅增长3%，“我想不通人们为什么愿意支付42倍市盈率的价格。”但是他又说，“到目前为止，我在这件事上还是个傻瓜，我应该意识到全世界都对可口可乐上瘾。”纽伯格投资十大原则一、了解自己投资者的成功是建立在已有的知识和经验基础上的。你最好在自己熟悉的领域进行专业投资，如果你知之甚少，或者根本没有对公司及细节进行分析，你最好还是离它远点。在你真正成为一名投资者之前，你也应该检查一下身体和精神是否合格。好的身体是你做出明智判断的基础，不要低估它。二、向成功的投资者学习即使是成功的投资者，他们中的许多人也在本世纪末度过了一段艰难时期。我和他们中许多人交谈过，其中只有一小部分人相信，1996年在股票一涨再涨的情况下，他们还能把握市场的形势。三、“羊市”思维个人投资者对一只股票的影响，有时会让它上下浮动10个百分点，但那只是一瞬间，一般是一天，不会超过一个星期。这种市场即非牛市也非熊市。我称这样的市场为“羊市”。有时羊群会遭到杀戮，有时会被剪掉一身羊毛。有时可以幸运地逃脱，保住羊毛。“羊市”与时装业有些类似。时装大师设计新款时装，二流设计师仿制它，成千上万的人追赶它，所以裙子忽短忽长。四、坚持长线思维注重短线投资容易忽略长线投资的重要性。企业经常投入大量资金，进行长线投资，当然同时会有短期效应，如果短期效果占主导作用，那将危害公司的发展和前景。获利应建立在长线投资、有效管理、抓住机遇的基础上。如果安排好这些，短线投资就不会占主要地位。五、及时进退时机可能不能决定所有事情，但时机可以决定许多事情。本来可能是一个好的长线投资，但是如果在错误的时间买入，情况会很糟。有的时候，如果你适时购入一只高投机股票，你同样可以赚钱。优秀的证券分析人可以不追随市场大流而做得很好，但如果顺潮流而动，操作起来就更简单些。把握有利时机一部分是靠直觉，一部分却正相反。时机的选定要靠自己的独立思维。在经济运行中，升势可能在跌势中产生，衰退会从高潮开始。在有的时期，普通股票是最好的投资，但是在另一时期，也许房地产业是最好的。任何事情都在变，人们也要学会变。我完全不信会存在一个永久不变的产业。六、认真分析公司状况必须认真研究公司的管理状况、领导层、公司业绩以及公司目标，尤其需要认真分析公司真实的资产状况，包括：设备价值及每股净资产。这个概念在世纪初曾被广泛重视，但这之后几乎被遗忘了。如果你能控制一家公司的整体市价，你就可以从中获得更多的利润。七、不要陷入情网在这个充满冒险的世界里，因为存在着许多可能性，人们会痴迷于某种想法、某个人、某种理想。最后能使人痴迷的恐怕就算股票了。但它只是一张证明你对一家企业所有权的纸，它只是金钱的一种象征。八、投资多元化，但不做套头交易套头交易就是对一些股票做多头，对另一些股票做空头。专业人士在日常的市场利用套头交易回避风险，有时新入市做套头交易只是一场赌博。我不赞成这样做。但也没有法律禁止它。套头交易的确是现代股票的一项变革，一个世纪以前当你从纽约和伦敦市场购买同一种股票时，城市间的差价只是些微的。专家们从一个市场买进一只股票，又在另一个市场上卖掉它，虽然赚钱很少，但还是有盈利的。九、观察周围环境我所说的环境是指市场走向和整个世界的环境。你需要变通我给你的那些模式，以适应你所在的市场的运作。股票不分季节，按照日历投资是没有必要的。记住，对投资者来讲，任何时候都是冒险的。对享受人生和享受投资快乐的人来说，季节虽多变，但机会随时都有。十、不要墨守成规根据形势的变化改变自己的思维方式是有必要的。我的观点是，你应该主动根据经济、政治因素的变化而变化。至于技术上，有时我们可以控制，但有时却是在我们控制之外的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950381246,"gmtCreate":1672673145086,"gmtModify":1676538718164,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eb432a429f7be8d32ac82851201df075","width":"750","height":"1568"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927192632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924718971,"gmtCreate":1672328114493,"gmtModify":1676538673460,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924718971","repostId":"1142620942","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142620942","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672322258,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142620942?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-29 21:57","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Moutai successfully completed its full-year revenue target, and its net profit increased by more than 19% year-on-year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142620942","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"粗略估算，公司日均营收约3.48亿元，日赚约1.72亿元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Xu Chao</p><p>On the evening of December 29,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>Release the production and operation situation in 2022. The company expects to achieve total operating income of 127.2 billion yuan for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 16.20%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 62.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 19.33%.</p><p>Among them, Moutai achieved an operating income of about 107.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 15.24% compared with 2021; The series of wines achieved operating income of approximately 15.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 24.70%. According to this rough estimate, Kweichow Moutai's average daily revenue is about 348 million yuan, and its daily profit is about 172 million yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf3fb0b3442ad73f1d62a6ac49d412e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In June this year, at the Moutai shareholders' meeting, the company's chairman Ding Xiongjun proposed to achieve a revenue target of 125.9 billion yuan in 2022, with a growth rate of 15%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points from last year's growth target. According to the data disclosed so far, Maotai has completed this year's revenue target.</p><p>In terms of products, the output of Maotai base liquor has grown relatively steadily this year, and the production capacity of series liquor is still being released rapidly. The production capacity of Moutai base liquor in 2021 will be 56,500 tons, and it is expected to increase to about 56,800 tons this year; The production capacity of the series of wine-based wines in 2021 will be 28,200 tons, and it is expected to increase to about 35,000 tons this year.</p><p>In the case of limited base wine production, Maotai is actively expanding production to meet market demand.</p><p>Kweichow Moutai previously announced that the company plans to invest about 15.516 billion yuan in the construction of Moutai's \"14th Five-Year Plan\" technical transformation construction project, including: 10.538 billion yuan in project costs, 3.212 billion yuan in other project construction costs (including 2.679 billion yuan in land costs), 886 million yuan in reserve funds, and 880 million yuan in basic working capital. It is planned to build 68 wineries, 10 koji-making factories, 69 wine warehouses and related supporting facilities. After completion, the actual production capacity of Moutai will be about 19,800 tons/year, and the wine storage capacity will be about 84,700 tons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6ef2da877ba0ab8d3386d90bd4620c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7eb8047514cf2ae11cb42f9fe9097db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the announced project construction period, it is expected that it will be fully completed and put into production in 2027, and the production capacity of Moutai base liquor will be about 76,300 tons/year. According to the production process of Moutai, it is expected that the sales volume of Moutai base liquor will be about 63,000-67,000 tons/year in 2031. Compared with the sales volume of Moutai base liquor in 2021, it will increase by 75%-85%.</p><p>The output of Maotai series wine is also expected to open up. According to the company announcement, Maotai currently plans to invest 4.11 billion yuan to implement the first phase construction project of Maotai-flavor wine Xishui Tongmin Dam during the \"14th Five-Year Plan\"., After the completion of the project, it can form a series of wine production capacity of about 12,000 tons, koji production capacity of about 29,400 tons, and wine storage capacity of about 36,000 tons. The construction period is 24 months. Combined with the projects currently under construction, it is estimated that the production capacity of Maotai series wine will reach about 68,000 tons per year in 2024.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moutai successfully completed its full-year revenue target, and its net profit increased by more than 19% year-on-year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMoutai successfully completed its full-year revenue target, and its net profit increased by more than 19% year-on-year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-29 21:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Xu Chao</p><p>On the evening of December 29,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>Release the production and operation situation in 2022. The company expects to achieve total operating income of 127.2 billion yuan for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 16.20%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 62.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 19.33%.</p><p>Among them, Moutai achieved an operating income of about 107.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 15.24% compared with 2021; The series of wines achieved operating income of approximately 15.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 24.70%. According to this rough estimate, Kweichow Moutai's average daily revenue is about 348 million yuan, and its daily profit is about 172 million yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf3fb0b3442ad73f1d62a6ac49d412e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In June this year, at the Moutai shareholders' meeting, the company's chairman Ding Xiongjun proposed to achieve a revenue target of 125.9 billion yuan in 2022, with a growth rate of 15%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points from last year's growth target. According to the data disclosed so far, Maotai has completed this year's revenue target.</p><p>In terms of products, the output of Maotai base liquor has grown relatively steadily this year, and the production capacity of series liquor is still being released rapidly. The production capacity of Moutai base liquor in 2021 will be 56,500 tons, and it is expected to increase to about 56,800 tons this year; The production capacity of the series of wine-based wines in 2021 will be 28,200 tons, and it is expected to increase to about 35,000 tons this year.</p><p>In the case of limited base wine production, Maotai is actively expanding production to meet market demand.</p><p>Kweichow Moutai previously announced that the company plans to invest about 15.516 billion yuan in the construction of Moutai's \"14th Five-Year Plan\" technical transformation construction project, including: 10.538 billion yuan in project costs, 3.212 billion yuan in other project construction costs (including 2.679 billion yuan in land costs), 886 million yuan in reserve funds, and 880 million yuan in basic working capital. It is planned to build 68 wineries, 10 koji-making factories, 69 wine warehouses and related supporting facilities. After completion, the actual production capacity of Moutai will be about 19,800 tons/year, and the wine storage capacity will be about 84,700 tons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6ef2da877ba0ab8d3386d90bd4620c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7eb8047514cf2ae11cb42f9fe9097db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the announced project construction period, it is expected that it will be fully completed and put into production in 2027, and the production capacity of Moutai base liquor will be about 76,300 tons/year. According to the production process of Moutai, it is expected that the sales volume of Moutai base liquor will be about 63,000-67,000 tons/year in 2031. Compared with the sales volume of Moutai base liquor in 2021, it will increase by 75%-85%.</p><p>The output of Maotai series wine is also expected to open up. According to the company announcement, Maotai currently plans to invest 4.11 billion yuan to implement the first phase construction project of Maotai-flavor wine Xishui Tongmin Dam during the \"14th Five-Year Plan\"., After the completion of the project, it can form a series of wine production capacity of about 12,000 tons, koji production capacity of about 29,400 tons, and wine storage capacity of about 36,000 tons. The construction period is 24 months. Combined with the projects currently under construction, it is estimated that the production capacity of Maotai series wine will reach about 68,000 tons per year in 2024.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678646\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba16b4f88c90908701f4ff26fee613c","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678646","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1142620942","content_text":"作者：许超12月29日晚间，贵州茅台发布2022年度生产经营情况。公司预计全年实现营业总收入1272亿元，同比增长16.20%；预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润626亿元，同比增长19.33%左右。其中，茅台酒实现营业收入约1077亿元，对比2021年度增长约15.24%；系列酒实现营业收入约157亿元，同比增长约24.70%。照此粗略估算，贵州茅台日均营收约3.48亿元，日赚约1.72亿元。今年6月，在茅台股东大会上，公司董事长丁雄军曾提出，2022年实现营收1259亿元的目标，增速15%，较去年增速目标提高4.5个百分点。按照目前披露的数据，茅台完成了今年的营收目标。分产品方面，茅台基酒产量今年增长较为稳定，系列酒产能仍在快速释放。茅台酒基酒2021年的产能为5.65万吨，今年预计提升至5.68万吨左右；系列酒基酒2021年的产能为2.82万吨，今年预计提升至3.50万吨左右。在基酒产量受限的情况下，茅台正在积极扩产，满足市场需求。贵州茅台此前发布公告，公司计划投资约155.16亿元建设茅台酒“十四五”技改建设项目，其中：工程费用105.38亿元，工程建设其他费用32.12亿元（含土地费用26.79亿元），预备费8.86亿元，铺底流动资金8.80亿元。规划建设制酒厂房68栋、制曲厂房10栋、酒库69栋及其相关配套设施，建成后可新增茅台酒实际产能约1.98万吨/年，储酒能力约8.47万吨。根据公告项目工期，预计2027年有望完全完工投产，实现茅台酒基酒产能约7.63万吨/年，根据茅台酒生产工艺，预计2031年有望实现茅台酒基酒销量约6.3-6.7万吨/年，较2021年茅台酒基酒销量提升75%-85%。茅台系列酒产量也有望打开。根据公司公告，茅台目前计划投资41.1亿元实施“十四五”酱香酒习水同民坝一期建设项目。，项目建成后可形成系列酒制酒产能约1.2万吨、制曲产能约2.94万吨、贮酒能力约3.6万吨，建设周期为24个月。结合目前尚在建设的项目，预计2024年茅台系列酒产能将达每年6.8万吨左右。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924634496,"gmtCreate":1672240052315,"gmtModify":1676538658116,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>ok","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ok","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3461c77fff46bff6bf2ae188aa7fb140","width":"750","height":"1496"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924634496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925562224,"gmtCreate":1672068199368,"gmtModify":1676538629485,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925562224","repostId":"1127484622","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127484622","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1672063910,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127484622?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-26 22:11","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Russia countered \"price limits\" and warned that it would implement crude oil production cuts and sales bans","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127484622","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"俄罗斯明年将生产至少4.9亿至5亿吨石油，相当于984万至1004万桶/日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Ying</p><p>Faced with the Western price limit order, Russia may implement production cuts to counter it.</p><p>On Monday, CCTV News previously reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin will sign a decree today or tomorrow on the West's response to Russian oil price limits.</p><p>Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia will ban the supply of oil and petroleum products to countries that comply with price caps imposed by Western countries, and may cut oil production by 500,000 to 700,000 barrels per day in early 2023. The production reduction of 500,000-700,000 barrels is equivalent to 5%-7% of Russian crude oil production.</p><p>In an interview on Sunday, Novak noted that Russia could increase crude oil exports if the EU ban causes refinery output to decline. If there is a problem with the sale of petroleum products, refining can be replaced to some extent by more oil exports. It is still possible that the EU ban will not affect Russian refining.</p><p>Novak added that Russia will produce at least 490 million to 500 million tons of oil next year, equivalent to 9.84 million to 10.04 million barrels per day.</p><p>Previously, the European Union set a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil exports to hit Russia's oil revenue. After the agreement officially comes into effect on December 5, if the price of Russian crude oil exceeds the threshold of US $60 per barrel, EU companies will be prohibited from providing insurance, financial and other services for Russian crude oil transportation.</p><p>Affected by the above sanctions, Russia's seaborne oil exports have declined significantly. Data showed that in the first full week after the EU's ban on Russian crude oil came into effect, crude oil exports from Russia fell by 1.86 million barrels per day, plunging about 54% to 1.6 million barrels per day, a new low this year. As of Dec. 21, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in December had fallen to their lowest level since January 2021.</p><p>Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said in the latest interview that Russia will not supply oil at prices set by the West, and will find new markets and logistics even if costs continue to rise.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Russia countered \"price limits\" and warned that it would implement crude oil production cuts and sales bans</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRussia countered \"price limits\" and warned that it would implement crude oil production cuts and sales bans\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-26 22:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Ying</p><p>Faced with the Western price limit order, Russia may implement production cuts to counter it.</p><p>On Monday, CCTV News previously reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin will sign a decree today or tomorrow on the West's response to Russian oil price limits.</p><p>Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia will ban the supply of oil and petroleum products to countries that comply with price caps imposed by Western countries, and may cut oil production by 500,000 to 700,000 barrels per day in early 2023. The production reduction of 500,000-700,000 barrels is equivalent to 5%-7% of Russian crude oil production.</p><p>In an interview on Sunday, Novak noted that Russia could increase crude oil exports if the EU ban causes refinery output to decline. If there is a problem with the sale of petroleum products, refining can be replaced to some extent by more oil exports. It is still possible that the EU ban will not affect Russian refining.</p><p>Novak added that Russia will produce at least 490 million to 500 million tons of oil next year, equivalent to 9.84 million to 10.04 million barrels per day.</p><p>Previously, the European Union set a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian seaborne oil exports to hit Russia's oil revenue. After the agreement officially comes into effect on December 5, if the price of Russian crude oil exceeds the threshold of US $60 per barrel, EU companies will be prohibited from providing insurance, financial and other services for Russian crude oil transportation.</p><p>Affected by the above sanctions, Russia's seaborne oil exports have declined significantly. Data showed that in the first full week after the EU's ban on Russian crude oil came into effect, crude oil exports from Russia fell by 1.86 million barrels per day, plunging about 54% to 1.6 million barrels per day, a new low this year. As of Dec. 21, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports in December had fallen to their lowest level since January 2021.</p><p>Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said in the latest interview that Russia will not supply oil at prices set by the West, and will find new markets and logistics even if costs continue to rise.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678362\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678362","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1127484622","content_text":"作者：赵颖面对西方的限价令，俄罗斯或将实施减产予以反制。周一，据央视新闻此前报道，俄罗斯总统普京将在今天或明天签署一项关于西方对俄罗斯石油限价的应对法令。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯将禁止向遵守西方国家规定的价格上限的国家供应石油和石油产品，并可能在2023年年初每天减产石油50万至70万桶。50-70万桶的减产，相当于俄罗斯原油产量的5%-7%。诺瓦克在周日接受采访时指出，如果欧盟禁令导致炼油厂产量下降，俄罗斯可能会增加原油出口。如果石油产品销售出现问题，炼油在一定程度上可以被更多的石油出口量所取代。欧盟的禁令仍有可能不会影响俄罗斯的炼油。诺瓦克补充说，俄罗斯明年将生产至少4.9亿至5亿吨石油，相当于984万至1004万桶/日。此前，欧盟对俄罗斯海运石油出口设置每桶60美元价格上限，以打击俄罗斯的石油收入。协议12月5日正式生效后，如果俄原油价格超过每桶60美元的门槛，将禁止欧盟企业为俄原油运输提供保险、金融等服务。受上述制裁措施影响，俄罗斯海运石油出口量显著下滑。数据显示，在欧盟对俄罗斯原油禁令生效后的第一个完整的一周内，从俄罗斯出口的原油每天下降186万桶，暴跌约54%，至160万桶，创下今年新低。截至12月21日，俄罗斯12月份海运原油出口量已降至2021年1月以来的最低水平。俄罗斯财政部部长西卢安诺夫在最新的采访中表示，俄罗斯不会按西方设定的价格供应石油，即便成本不断上升，也要寻找新的市场和物流。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925562387,"gmtCreate":1672068145350,"gmtModify":1676538629471,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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17:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Does the Spring Festival meet the conditions for reunion? Zhang Boli responded","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148756326","media":"新华社","summary":"相关准备工作仍需加强，个人防疫意识和措施切不可放松。","content":"<p><div>Author: Zhang Jianxin, Bai Jiali In the past week, the Omicron virus has been menacing, and more and more people have become positive. Will infected people get repeated infections? Is the anti-epidemic Chinese medicine prescription circulating on the Internet reliable? Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be taken together?... In view of the hot issues of public concern at present, Academician Zhang Boli accepted an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency's \"Xinhua Viewpoint\" reporter. Hot spot 1: The number of infected people in some cities such as Beijing has increased significantly, but the situation in other cities is relatively stable. What is the reason for this difference? Zhang Boli: This difference is related to the large population and density of Beijing, which leads to the faster spread of the epidemic. Meanwhile, Beijing's current round...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"XHS1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does the Spring Festival meet the conditions for reunion? Zhang Boli responded</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes the Spring Festival meet the conditions for reunion? Zhang Boli responded\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新华社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-14 17:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Author: Zhang Jianxin, Bai Jiali In the past week, the Omicron virus has been menacing, and more and more people have become positive. Will infected people get repeated infections? Is the anti-epidemic Chinese medicine prescription circulating on the Internet reliable? Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be taken together?... In view of the hot issues of public concern at present, Academician Zhang Boli accepted an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency's \"Xinhua Viewpoint\" reporter. Hot spot 1: The number of infected people in some cities such as Beijing has increased significantly, but the situation in other cities is relatively stable. What is the reason for this difference? Zhang Boli: This difference is related to the large population and density of Beijing, which leads to the faster spread of the epidemic. Meanwhile, Beijing's current round...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135\">新华社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e02dee44c1d24aa837c7fbef3689d297","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_21163135","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148756326","content_text":"作者：张建新、白佳丽近一周来，奥密克戎病毒来势汹汹，越来越多的人中招变阳。感染过的人会不会反复感染？网上流传的抗疫中药方靠谱吗？中药西药能一起吃吗？……针对当下公众关心的热点问题，张伯礼院士接受了新华社“新华视点”记者的专访。热点一：北京等一些城市感染者数量明显增加，但另外一些城市情况较平稳，导致这种差异的原因是什么？张伯礼：这种差异与北京人口多、密度大有关，导致疫情传播速度更快。同时，北京本轮疫情的主要毒株是奥密克戎BF.7毒株，与奥密克戎其他变异株相比具有更强的传染性和免疫逃逸能力。这种变异株主要在上呼吸道复制，这意味着感染者容易在说话、咳嗽时造成病毒的传播，进一步促进了病毒的传播。此外，北方寒冷，又值感冒、流感的高发季，更加深了疫情严重的印象。热点二：感染过新冠的人会不会反复感染？张伯礼：有些传染病，确实在一次感染后会获得持久甚至终身免疫，比如水痘。而新冠病毒感染与之不同，通过对国内外奥密克戎疫情的观察可以得出结论，由于新冠病毒不断发生变异，且有较强免疫逃逸能力，当前流行的奥密克戎毒株具有多个亚型，人体对奥密克戎不同亚型难以建立全面的免疫屏障，在感染新冠病毒之后，少数人有可能还会再次被感染，这方面还需开展更多的研究。二次感染的情况是因人而异的，要根据感染者当时的免疫力和病毒的强弱程度来考量。一般而言，二次感染与首次感染的症状没有太大区别。如果感染了同一个亚型的病毒，二次感染的症状会轻于首次感染。因此，即使感染康复后个人防护措施仍应当坚持。热点三：很多人关心新冠后遗症的问题，这种担忧有必要吗？张伯礼：是否称为“后遗症”“长新冠”还可以讨论。部分患者在康复期确实还存在一些症状，没有完全恢复。原始毒株和德尔塔毒株所致的感染大约有10%的患者转阴后有此类症状存在。但目前初步观察，奥密克戎毒株引发新冠这类症状风险显著降低，无症状感染者基本无新冠后遗症。奥密克戎感染不可怕，绝大多数感染者可在7-10天内完全恢复。对于新冠“后遗症”，不用过度担忧和恐慌。但由于感染者基数大，患者治愈后出现的一些持续症状，还需要进一步观察研究。中医讲“瘥后防复”。我们在武汉总结的经验是早期康复、综合康复、自我康复，用中药、针灸、推拿以及传统功法等，能够促进患者愈后，改善乏力、气短等症状。延续新冠康复的经验，发挥中医药在康复方面的特色优势，不断优化康复路径和方法，采取积极的干预措施，让治愈者的身心达到更好的状态。热点四：中药西药是否可以一起吃？张伯礼：当前应当呼吁广大民众理性用药、合理用药，切忌病急乱投医以及过量用药。如果被感染，西药退烧药与中药感冒药尽量不要同服，如服用连花清瘟、金花清感、宣肺败毒颗粒等有退热功效的中成药，就不再联合服用布洛芬或对乙酰氨基酚了。其他中药西药如服用也应间隔1小时，避免互相影响。当然若是服用了感冒类中药，但咽痛明显，可以加服六神丸、清咽滴丸等对症药。同时应把握“中病即止”原则，症状消失后及时停止用药。中药感冒药也尽量只选一种服用，没必要两三种一起服用，这类药多含有清热解毒类的苦寒药，叠加使用易伤脾胃，不利于愈后。西药退烧药同样如此，选用一种即可，避免联合用药，要注意每日服用剂量不要超标，否则可能会对肝脏带来损伤。热点五：现在网上流传着很多预防或治疗新冠的中药方，以及一些所谓“很灵”的食补方，您怎么看？张伯礼：根据中医“三因制宜”的原则，不同的地域、不同的人群、不同的季节防治疾病的方剂都有所不同，需因时因人因地裁方用药，食补也是同样道理。网上流传的这些中药方可能对一部分人起效，但不一定对其他人群有效，甚至有反作用。建议药方、食补方宜在中医师指导下合理使用。对患者而言，多喝水，多吃富含维C的水果、新鲜蔬菜，注意休息，保障睡眠都是重要的。热点六：接下来疫情感染的走势会怎样？张伯礼：根据目前国内形势，奥密克戎毒株已在社会面传播，又值冬季流感、普通感冒的高发季，接下来1至2个月会迎来一波流行高峰。新冠肺炎疫情发生以来，我国预防与治疗相结合，中西医并重，中西药并用，新冠肺炎重症率和病亡率保持在较低水平。但随着感染基数的不断增大，重症感染者人数也将大概率出现增长。国家有关部门已经部署医疗单位，加强重症救治的床位及医务人员培训工作。尽管新冠病毒呈现致病力减弱的趋势，奥密克戎变异株依然对老年人和有严重基础性疾病人群的健康产生较大威胁，如何在流行高峰期保护好这些人群是接下来疫情防控的重点工作。热点七：今年春节具备大家团圆过节的条件吗？张伯礼：国务院联防联控机制“新十条”的发布，让有乡愁的人们有了回家过年的盼头。团圆是中国人对春节最大的期盼，将心比心，将疫情防控工作与暖心服务更好地结合起来，也是我国疫情防控政策优化调整的方向。在疫情新形势下，相信疫情防控部门和各地政府也都在未雨绸缪，因地制宜制定返乡政策，今年大概率是个团圆年。但春运人员迁徙传播风险较高，相关准备工作仍需加强，个人防疫意识和措施切不可放松。热点八：近期不少人因为觉得可能被感染处于焦虑中，您想对他们说什么？张伯礼：中医常讲七情致病，恐慌焦虑等不良情绪可能导致人体免疫力下降，积极的心态对于预防和治疗疾病都具有非常大的好处，应以变应变。与第一代病毒、德尔塔病毒致病性不同，现在奥密克戎感染致病力较弱。平常得感冒、流感不紧张，现在也没有必要紧张，尤其是年轻人更不用紧张。在日常生活中要坚持过去行之有效的防控措施，保持社交距离，正确佩戴口罩，做好手部消毒，注意室内通风，不聚集，少聚餐，规律作息，保证睡眠，防护措施到位，能够对新冠起到有效的预防作用。积极做好情绪平复工作，自我调适，进行如读书、八段锦、太极拳等一些活动，以放松身心。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9093225911,"gmtCreate":1643642938514,"gmtModify":1676533839494,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093225911","repostId":"1176041035","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176041035","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1643611390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176041035?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-31 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176041035","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>High inflation and low unemployment rate mean that the rate hike and shrinking balance sheet storms in the United States will set off a frenzy, fast and fast.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January released a strong hawkish signal, which not only kicked off the rate hike, but also followed closely by quantitative tightening (QT). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that there has been no progress in the supply chain. It can be seen that he is very worried about inflation, and high inflation will last longer than expected.</p><p><b>Major Wall Street banks currently expect to start a rate hike in March, a rate hike four times throughout the year, and a shrinking balance sheet around July. How far will the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet shrink to curb stubborn inflation? Where is the bottom of the stock market?</b>So far, the S&P 500 index has fallen by nearly 10% from its high level, and the Nasdaq 100 index has also fallen by more than 15%, approaching a technical bear market. The impact of austerity has spillover effects all over the world. Even in China, which started policy easing, A-shares actually fell below 3,400 points last week.</p><p>A number of U.S. stock traders told the author that due to the constraints of ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put option\" (central bank put, that is, the central bank often releases liquidity to rescue the market when the market falls) that has been tried and tested over the past decade has gradually failed, and the strategy of \"bargain hunting\" may withdraw from the stage of history.</p><p>However, due to the recent sharp decline in U.S. stocks, a technical rebound is likely to occur in the next week or two, but it is likely to continue to decline in the future. The 4818 points of the S&P 500 may be the highest level in the past two years. At present, some traders even give the market outlook. A target of 3800 points.</p><p><b>Austerity Storm Hits</b></p><p>Powell showed an hawkish posture at a press conference that started at 3 a.m. Beijing time on January 27. Compared with the moderate monetary policy statement, his tone was more hawkish. Risk assets fell in response, and the three major U.S. stock indexes turned from rising to fall.</p><p>Powell reiterated his plan to quickly withdraw from quantitative easing, while also hinting that rate hike is likely to be launched as soon as the next March meeting.</p><p>Some highlights of the press conference are as follows: wages are growing rapidly; Inflation remains well above long-term targets and has a broader impact; The economy no longer needs sustained high-intensity policy support; The Committee generally agreed that the time for rate hike would soon come; Powell doesn't rule out rate hike at every FOMC meeting; There is considerable room for interest rates to be raised; FOMC intends to rate hike at March meeting; The Fed's balance sheet is much larger than necessary; Inflation risks remain upward; Inflation is likely to remain higher for longer than expected.</p><p>Some traders mentioned to the author that we need to be alert to the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50bp in March, just as after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp at one time to carry out policy control that exceeded expectations. The resilience of the job market provides sufficient space for rate hike without leading to economic recession. \"It is expected that the GDP growth rate of the United States will be around 5%, and the growth may slow down, but there will be no negative growth rate and recession degree.\"</p><p>The just-released preliminary value of U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter shows that the economic growth rate is 6.9%, higher than the expected value of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. One important piece of information worth noting is the sub-indicator of inflation called the \"price index\" or \"deflator\".</p><p>The GDP report showed that the indicator rose to 7% from the previous value of 5.9%, higher than the expected value of 6%. Another important data is the initial value of the personal consumption index and the core personal consumption index in the fourth quarter. The former was reported at 6.5%, and the expected value and the previous value were both 5.4% respectively. The core personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, was reported at 4.9%, in line with expectations, but higher than the previous value of 4.6%.</p><p>Faced with such high inflation, and in the future, due to high oil prices and continued supply chain problems, inflation will be difficult to decline in the short term. In addition, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. If it does not tighten, the Federal Reserve will face huge political and social pressure. After all, in the United States, box lunch and milk prices have soared by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks are far from falling</b></p><p>Restricted by ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put options\" that have been tried and tested over the past decade have gradually expired, and U.S. stocks will continue to fall.<b>Of course, the \"bull market inertia\" of the stock market rising under low interest rates for more than ten years has accumulated, and the decline will inevitably be accompanied by a rebound until the bulls are completely desperate.</b></p><p>\"I think the market will continue to fall, but since we are now in oversold territory, there will be a rebound in the process of the decline, but I don't think it will be sustained.\" Joe Perry, a senior trader and City Index analyst, told the author, \"Rising interest rates will lead to higher discount rates for future cash, which will put pressure on valuations and impact the profit margins of growth technology companies. In addition, although earnings have not been revised down, earnings results are only in line with expectations or slightly beat expectations, and performance guidance is weaker than expected.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Nasdaq 100 Index</p><p>He mentioned that before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>(Netflix) 's guidance fell short of expectations, and the market expected that the number of new subscribers would increase by more than 5 million, but in fact it only increased by 2.85 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The performance is in line with expectations, but cloud computing business revenue is expected to decline in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The released results exceeded expectations, but supply chain issues will still run through 2022, or affect shipments. Although the performance of the big companies that the market is concerned about is acceptable, there are also hidden dangers, which is why Microsoft's stock price plummeted when its results were released before, and so did Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to the most vulnerable technology stocks, the outlook for the less volatile S&P 500 is not optimistic. \"I think the S&P 500 index has room for further downside. Today, the stock index just remains near the 200-day moving average. I think it will fall further. In the future, it may look towards 3,800 points, which is also the lowest point in the autumn of 2020 to the highest point in early January 2022. 50% retracement of the market.\" He said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The combination of \"rate hike + shrinking balance sheet + high inflation\" is fatal for the stock market. The point is that oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2022, putting upward pressure on already high inflation again. Many institutions predict that under the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices are likely to break through the $100 mark. Even without this important factor, falling inventories will cause oil prices to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Perry said: \"There will still be room for oil prices to rise, especially considering the tension between Russia and Ukraine, and OPEC's output cannot climb. It may indeed hit the $100 mark in the first quarter, but it is more likely in the second and third quarters. By then, crude oil demand will also rise.\"</p><p><b>At present, the tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border has intensified. Last week, the two sides said that they would hold further negotiations within two weeks, but this period may still cause great uncertainty.</b>The U.S. secretary of state previously warned that \"if Russia sends another force into Ukraine, it will trigger a U.S. response\" and ordered U.S. embassy personnel to leave Ukraine. The UK Foreign Office estimates that about 100,000 Russian servicemen are currently massing at the border.</p><p>International asset management institutions believe that a diplomatic response is more likely, and a full-scale armed conflict seems unlikely. Invesco believes that the reasons are: severe financial sanctions from the United States and the European Union; Cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline via Ukraine; It may permanently turn the EU away from its dependence on Russian energy.</p><p>Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for about 9% of total energy consumption in Western Europe, and Russian oil accounts for about 10% of global oil production. Russia seems to be too economically at risk to make this gamble. Therefore, a more likely scenario is to reach a diplomatic response: if NATO promises to stop political and military engagement with Ukrainians, and if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is allowed to enter EU countries, the Russian troops will be withdrawn. This can provide immediate relief from skyrocketing energy prices, especially natural gas prices.</p><p>What if there is an armed conflict? Global oil supply will be greatly affected. In this scenario, analysts expect a 2.3 million barrels per day decline in oil supply, which would push oil prices to almost double to around $150 per barrel, thereby knocking global GDP by 1.6%. This will put significant upward pressure on inflation in Western countries. Many major central banks are likely to preemptively raise policy rates, thus curbing the economic rebound.</p><p>But in fact, from an investment perspective, no matter what happens in Ukraine, it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector because:</p><p><b>It can be a good hedge against inflation. Strong global demand should keep prices high, while potentially severe supply disruptions from military action will only drive energy prices further.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A-share center moves down</b></p><p><b>Looking at the Chinese stock market, the U.S. currency tightened and U.S. stocks fell. China's money is loose, but A shares fall even more. What's going on here?</b></p><p>Since January (January 26), the CSI 300 Index has fallen 4.6%. However, institutional people interviewed by the author generally believe that it is recommended to remain calm in February and not rush to increase positions.</p><p>According to AVIC Trust, the economic data in December last year was lower than expected, real estate investment, sales, new construction and other indicators experienced significant negative growth, and consumption growth declined. Facing the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics from January to February, the epidemic prevention and control situation will be more serious, and consumption will be weaker. Real estate is in the off-season, and it is difficult for distressed real estate companies to improve, which continues to drag down the economy. The bright spot of the macro economy is still in foreign trade. In the first quarter, import and export will follow the trend of last year and continue to maintain rapid growth. However, corporate profits lag behind the economic cycle, and the decline in economic growth will lead to the continued decline in corporate profit growth in the first quarter.</p><p>In terms of policy, monetary policy has been significantly loosened. In January, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase rate were lowered by 10BP. In the fourth quarter of last year, monetary easing was a minor fuss, but this year's monetary policy has made a clear turn. However, fiscal efforts have to wait for the \"two sessions\". The fiscal lag leads to the lack of \"focus\" of monetary policy in the first quarter, and there is nowhere to use its strength. In addition, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will start rate hike in March, and rate hike may reach 3-4 times during the year, which will also offset some of the domestic easing effects.</p><p>At present, the incremental funds of A shares are also insufficient. The issuance of Public Offering of Fund has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year, with only 60-70 billion new Public Offering of Fund issued in January. In the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of quantitative products was poor and it was redeemed by investors.<b>In 2021, capital inflows from the north will flow significantly into A-shares, but under the background of the strict supervision of \"fake foreign capital\" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, it is expected that the scale of capital inflows from the north this year will be weaker than last year.</b>With the end of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, the transfer of funds from non-standard assets to the stock market is coming to an end, and the sources of incremental funds in the stock market are reduced.</p><p>Taking the new energy track stocks with a large pullback/retracement recently as an example, investment institutions are currently paying more attention to valuation. For a company with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, it may be reasonable to give a valuation of 40 times, but if it was given 50-60 times, or even hundreds of times before, there must be irrational components, the possibility of subsequent valuation killing will increase. \"As for whether it is worth it now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>, the judgment is not difficult-the current prosperity has not changed. If the valuation falls to 30 times, then you can get 30% of the possible room for making money. If it only returns to 40 times, then the room for buying profits is still limited.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed tightening storm is coming, and everyone is asking where is the bottom of the stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-31 14:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>High inflation and low unemployment rate mean that the rate hike and shrinking balance sheet storms in the United States will set off a frenzy, fast and fast.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January released a strong hawkish signal, which not only kicked off the rate hike, but also followed closely by quantitative tightening (QT). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that there has been no progress in the supply chain. It can be seen that he is very worried about inflation, and high inflation will last longer than expected.</p><p><b>Major Wall Street banks currently expect to start a rate hike in March, a rate hike four times throughout the year, and a shrinking balance sheet around July. How far will the Fed's $9 trillion balance sheet shrink to curb stubborn inflation? Where is the bottom of the stock market?</b>So far, the S&P 500 index has fallen by nearly 10% from its high level, and the Nasdaq 100 index has also fallen by more than 15%, approaching a technical bear market. The impact of austerity has spillover effects all over the world. Even in China, which started policy easing, A-shares actually fell below 3,400 points last week.</p><p>A number of U.S. stock traders told the author that due to the constraints of ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put option\" (central bank put, that is, the central bank often releases liquidity to rescue the market when the market falls) that has been tried and tested over the past decade has gradually failed, and the strategy of \"bargain hunting\" may withdraw from the stage of history.</p><p>However, due to the recent sharp decline in U.S. stocks, a technical rebound is likely to occur in the next week or two, but it is likely to continue to decline in the future. The 4818 points of the S&P 500 may be the highest level in the past two years. At present, some traders even give the market outlook. A target of 3800 points.</p><p><b>Austerity Storm Hits</b></p><p>Powell showed an hawkish posture at a press conference that started at 3 a.m. Beijing time on January 27. Compared with the moderate monetary policy statement, his tone was more hawkish. Risk assets fell in response, and the three major U.S. stock indexes turned from rising to fall.</p><p>Powell reiterated his plan to quickly withdraw from quantitative easing, while also hinting that rate hike is likely to be launched as soon as the next March meeting.</p><p>Some highlights of the press conference are as follows: wages are growing rapidly; Inflation remains well above long-term targets and has a broader impact; The economy no longer needs sustained high-intensity policy support; The Committee generally agreed that the time for rate hike would soon come; Powell doesn't rule out rate hike at every FOMC meeting; There is considerable room for interest rates to be raised; FOMC intends to rate hike at March meeting; The Fed's balance sheet is much larger than necessary; Inflation risks remain upward; Inflation is likely to remain higher for longer than expected.</p><p>Some traders mentioned to the author that we need to be alert to the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50bp in March, just as after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp at one time to carry out policy control that exceeded expectations. The resilience of the job market provides sufficient space for rate hike without leading to economic recession. \"It is expected that the GDP growth rate of the United States will be around 5%, and the growth may slow down, but there will be no negative growth rate and recession degree.\"</p><p>The just-released preliminary value of U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter shows that the economic growth rate is 6.9%, higher than the expected value of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. One important piece of information worth noting is the sub-indicator of inflation called the \"price index\" or \"deflator\".</p><p>The GDP report showed that the indicator rose to 7% from the previous value of 5.9%, higher than the expected value of 6%. Another important data is the initial value of the personal consumption index and the core personal consumption index in the fourth quarter. The former was reported at 6.5%, and the expected value and the previous value were both 5.4% respectively. The core personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, was reported at 4.9%, in line with expectations, but higher than the previous value of 4.6%.</p><p>Faced with such high inflation, and in the future, due to high oil prices and continued supply chain problems, inflation will be difficult to decline in the short term. In addition, the unemployment rate is only 3.9%. If it does not tighten, the Federal Reserve will face huge political and social pressure. After all, in the United States, box lunch and milk prices have soared by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US stocks are far from falling</b></p><p>Restricted by ultra-high inflation, the central bank's \"put options\" that have been tried and tested over the past decade have gradually expired, and U.S. stocks will continue to fall.<b>Of course, the \"bull market inertia\" of the stock market rising under low interest rates for more than ten years has accumulated, and the decline will inevitably be accompanied by a rebound until the bulls are completely desperate.</b></p><p>\"I think the market will continue to fall, but since we are now in oversold territory, there will be a rebound in the process of the decline, but I don't think it will be sustained.\" Joe Perry, a senior trader and City Index analyst, told the author, \"Rising interest rates will lead to higher discount rates for future cash, which will put pressure on valuations and impact the profit margins of growth technology companies. In addition, although earnings have not been revised down, earnings results are only in line with expectations or slightly beat expectations, and performance guidance is weaker than expected.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| Nasdaq 100 Index</p><p>He mentioned that before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>(Netflix) 's guidance fell short of expectations, and the market expected that the number of new subscribers would increase by more than 5 million, but in fact it only increased by 2.85 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The performance is in line with expectations, but cloud computing business revenue is expected to decline in the first quarter;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The released results exceeded expectations, but supply chain issues will still run through 2022, or affect shipments. Although the performance of the big companies that the market is concerned about is acceptable, there are also hidden dangers, which is why Microsoft's stock price plummeted when its results were released before, and so did Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to the most vulnerable technology stocks, the outlook for the less volatile S&P 500 is not optimistic. \"I think the S&P 500 index has room for further downside. Today, the stock index just remains near the 200-day moving average. I think it will fall further. In the future, it may look towards 3,800 points, which is also the lowest point in the autumn of 2020 to the highest point in early January 2022. 50% retracement of the market.\" He said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The combination of \"rate hike + shrinking balance sheet + high inflation\" is fatal for the stock market. The point is that oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2022, putting upward pressure on already high inflation again. Many institutions predict that under the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices are likely to break through the $100 mark. Even without this important factor, falling inventories will cause oil prices to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Perry said: \"There will still be room for oil prices to rise, especially considering the tension between Russia and Ukraine, and OPEC's output cannot climb. It may indeed hit the $100 mark in the first quarter, but it is more likely in the second and third quarters. By then, crude oil demand will also rise.\"</p><p><b>At present, the tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border has intensified. Last week, the two sides said that they would hold further negotiations within two weeks, but this period may still cause great uncertainty.</b>The U.S. secretary of state previously warned that \"if Russia sends another force into Ukraine, it will trigger a U.S. response\" and ordered U.S. embassy personnel to leave Ukraine. The UK Foreign Office estimates that about 100,000 Russian servicemen are currently massing at the border.</p><p>International asset management institutions believe that a diplomatic response is more likely, and a full-scale armed conflict seems unlikely. Invesco believes that the reasons are: severe financial sanctions from the United States and the European Union; Cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline via Ukraine; It may permanently turn the EU away from its dependence on Russian energy.</p><p>Currently, Russian natural gas accounts for about 9% of total energy consumption in Western Europe, and Russian oil accounts for about 10% of global oil production. Russia seems to be too economically at risk to make this gamble. Therefore, a more likely scenario is to reach a diplomatic response: if NATO promises to stop political and military engagement with Ukrainians, and if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project is allowed to enter EU countries, the Russian troops will be withdrawn. This can provide immediate relief from skyrocketing energy prices, especially natural gas prices.</p><p>What if there is an armed conflict? Global oil supply will be greatly affected. In this scenario, analysts expect a 2.3 million barrels per day decline in oil supply, which would push oil prices to almost double to around $150 per barrel, thereby knocking global GDP by 1.6%. This will put significant upward pressure on inflation in Western countries. Many major central banks are likely to preemptively raise policy rates, thus curbing the economic rebound.</p><p>But in fact, from an investment perspective, no matter what happens in Ukraine, it is reasonable for investors to increase their holdings in the energy sector because:</p><p><b>It can be a good hedge against inflation. Strong global demand should keep prices high, while potentially severe supply disruptions from military action will only drive energy prices further.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A-share center moves down</b></p><p><b>Looking at the Chinese stock market, the U.S. currency tightened and U.S. stocks fell. China's money is loose, but A shares fall even more. What's going on here?</b></p><p>Since January (January 26), the CSI 300 Index has fallen 4.6%. However, institutional people interviewed by the author generally believe that it is recommended to remain calm in February and not rush to increase positions.</p><p>According to AVIC Trust, the economic data in December last year was lower than expected, real estate investment, sales, new construction and other indicators experienced significant negative growth, and consumption growth declined. Facing the Spring Festival holiday and the Winter Olympics from January to February, the epidemic prevention and control situation will be more serious, and consumption will be weaker. Real estate is in the off-season, and it is difficult for distressed real estate companies to improve, which continues to drag down the economy. The bright spot of the macro economy is still in foreign trade. In the first quarter, import and export will follow the trend of last year and continue to maintain rapid growth. However, corporate profits lag behind the economic cycle, and the decline in economic growth will lead to the continued decline in corporate profit growth in the first quarter.</p><p>In terms of policy, monetary policy has been significantly loosened. In January, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase rate were lowered by 10BP. In the fourth quarter of last year, monetary easing was a minor fuss, but this year's monetary policy has made a clear turn. However, fiscal efforts have to wait for the \"two sessions\". The fiscal lag leads to the lack of \"focus\" of monetary policy in the first quarter, and there is nowhere to use its strength. In addition, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will start rate hike in March, and rate hike may reach 3-4 times during the year, which will also offset some of the domestic easing effects.</p><p>At present, the incremental funds of A shares are also insufficient. The issuance of Public Offering of Fund has weakened since the fourth quarter of last year, with only 60-70 billion new Public Offering of Fund issued in January. In the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of quantitative products was poor and it was redeemed by investors.<b>In 2021, capital inflows from the north will flow significantly into A-shares, but under the background of the strict supervision of \"fake foreign capital\" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, it is expected that the scale of capital inflows from the north this year will be weaker than last year.</b>With the end of the transition period of the new asset management regulations, the transfer of funds from non-standard assets to the stock market is coming to an end, and the sources of incremental funds in the stock market are reduced.</p><p>Taking the new energy track stocks with a large pullback/retracement recently as an example, investment institutions are currently paying more attention to valuation. For a company with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, it may be reasonable to give a valuation of 40 times, but if it was given 50-60 times, or even hundreds of times before, there must be irrational components, the possibility of subsequent valuation killing will increase. \"As for whether it is worth it now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">Worth buying</a>, the judgment is not difficult-the current prosperity has not changed. If the valuation falls to 30 times, then you can get 30% of the possible room for making money. If it only returns to 40 times, then the room for buying profits is still limited.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75adecb2c4a2991eb1db80f007a7b5f8","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176041035","content_text":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。紧缩风暴来袭鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。美股远未跌完受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”| 纳斯达克100指数他提及，此前奈飞（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；微软的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；特斯拉发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。A股中枢下移转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不值得买，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036298332,"gmtCreate":1647097498484,"gmtModify":1676534194780,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036298332","repostId":"2218249601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218249601","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647046791,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218249601?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 08:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218249601","media":"Wind万得","summary":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will usher in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off the rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but ultimately, the market will recover.\"</p><p>Rate hike is about to \"land its boots\", and shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear picture of expected policy action. forecast.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, the consumer price index (CPI) reached a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly above expectations of 7.8% this year. CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong and high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Fed to also make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that there has been a big swing in interest rate expectations, and it's likely to continue as the data comes out, which could add to volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply on expectations of Fed tightening, while longer-term yields rising less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is viewed as an important indicator. Curve inversion, especially when 2-year or shorter-term U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve could send the economy into recession. Others have offered a more dovish explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting expectations that a swift response from the Fed will help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike is about to \"land its boots\". Will it bring a boosting effect to the global market that has been volatile recently?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said stocks could fall further in the near term. Unlike COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 when governments implemented tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He is also worried that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades will trigger another wave of COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. Bond yields are likely to edge higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so global stocks haven't bottomed out yet and the dollar will rise, he said.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stock markets, especially the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, which means the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds, he said. \"Rising short-term inflation coupled with sanctions will cause great disruption to demand, and falling bond yields will have a boosting effect on U.S. stocks,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal attention! The Fed's \"boots land\" next week, will risk sentiment reverse?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-12 08:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will usher in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market expects this meeting to kick off the rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but ultimately, the market will recover.\"</p><p>Rate hike is about to \"land its boots\", and shrinking balance sheet still needs to wait and see</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear picture of expected policy action. forecast.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, the consumer price index (CPI) reached a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly above expectations of 7.8% this year. CPI rose 0.8% month-on-month, higher than expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong and high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he expects the Fed to also make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that there has been a big swing in interest rate expectations, and it's likely to continue as the data comes out, which could add to volatility in the interest rate market and the yield curve, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the beginning of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term interest rates rising sharply on expectations of Fed tightening, while longer-term yields rising less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is viewed as an important indicator. Curve inversion, especially when 2-year or shorter-term U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but the rapid flattening of the curve may reflect concerns that aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve could send the economy into recession. Others have offered a more dovish explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting expectations that a swift response from the Fed will help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment reverse?</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike is about to \"land its boots\". Will it bring a boosting effect to the global market that has been volatile recently?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said stocks could fall further in the near term. Unlike COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 when governments implemented tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He is also worried that Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades will trigger another wave of COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Josh said that on a three-month basis, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth. Bond yields are likely to edge higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so global stocks haven't bottomed out yet and the dollar will rise, he said.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stock markets, especially the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, which means the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of 30-year bonds, he said. \"Rising short-term inflation coupled with sanctions will cause great disruption to demand, and falling bond yields will have a boosting effect on U.S. stocks,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218249601","content_text":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待这场波动持续多久，但最终，市场将会复苏。”加息即将“靴子落地”，缩表还需等待观察美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)此前表示，在通胀高企、经济需求强劲和劳动力市场紧张的情况下，他将在3月美联储会议上提议升息25个基点，这为预期的政策行动提供了异常明确的预估。根据美联储首选的指标，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)达到7.9%，创40年来新高，略高于今年7.8%的预期。CPI环比上涨0.8%，高于预期的0.7%。鲍威尔对议员们说，“这是强劲高位的通货膨胀，我们要控制住它，这非常重要，这正是我们要做的。”鲍威尔说，他预计美联储在准备缩减9万亿美元资产组合的计划方面也会取得“良好进展”，但美联储不会在3月15日至16日的会议上敲定这些计划。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)说，关键是利率预期已经出现了大幅波动，而且随着数据的出炉，这种波动可能会持续下去，这可能会加剧利率市场和收益率曲线的波动性。自今年初以来，收益率曲线已明显趋平，短期利率因美联储收紧预期而大幅上升，而较长期收益率的升幅则不那么剧烈。收益率曲线本身就被视为一个重要的指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或较短期美债收益率高于10年期美债收益率时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。一些分析师说，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线迅速趋平可能反映出人们对美联储激进收紧政策可能导致经济陷入衰退的担忧。其他人则给出了一种较为温和的解释，利率的趋平反映出市场预期美联储迅速做出反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需将利率升到令人难以置信的水平。风险情绪会逆转吗?美联储加息即将“靴子落地”，会给近期剧烈波动的全球市场带来提振效应吗?BCA Research的哈瓦尔•乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，股市短期内可能会进一步下跌。与2019年新冠疫情时各国政府实施减税和增加支出不同，这次他们是在制裁俄罗斯，这也将损害其国内经济。他还担心欧洲几十年来最大的难民危机会引发另一波新冠疫情。乔希说，以三个月为基准，能源和食品价格飞涨带来的通货膨胀将抑制经济增长。随着美联储和其他央行做出回应，债券收益率可能会小幅走高，因此他说，全球股市尚未触底，美元将会上涨。但从12个月来看，他预计全球股市，尤其是美国股市将会上涨。他说，美国股市的存续期很长，为30年，这意味着市场的估值应该是美国的利润乘以30年期债券的价格。他表示:“短期通胀升温加上制裁措施，将对需求造成极大破坏，届时，债券收益率下降将为美股带来提振效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPY":1,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927799234,"gmtCreate":1672584710528,"gmtModify":1676538707528,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927799234","repostId":"1192361274","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052192373,"gmtCreate":1655134034892,"gmtModify":1676535567856,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052192373","repostId":"2243019507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243019507","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪海内外最新宏观政策和经济走势，分享来自莫尼塔宏观团队的最新观点。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"钟正生经济分析","id":"70","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b"},"pubTimestamp":1655095529,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243019507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 12:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243019507","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's Note:</b>In May 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations, and further highlighting the need for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. After the Federal Reserve officially launched a shrinking balance sheet in June, money market interest rates were generally relatively stable, but the superimposed impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices is still worthy of vigilance.<b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, which will be increased to US $95 billion three months later. How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Fed's operations were more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow;<b>2）</b>In order to avoid sending different policy signals from interest rate cuts at the same time as shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early in August 2019, two months earlier than originally planned.</p><p><b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Compared to 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower now, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different from the past, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that during the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by approximately 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).<b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On one hand</b>The current employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong. If inflationary pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>, considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent. If inflationary pressures in the United States ease, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" of the economy.</p><p><b>At present, the balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, especially the debt-side reverse repurchase agreement and the scale and proportion of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly, which makes the disturbance of liquidity in the shrinking balance sheet relatively low. One is</b>From the perspective of assets, the proportion of MBS with greater uncertainty in scale changes has declined, which has reduced the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The second is</b>, the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has increased sharply, and short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit of interest rates, which means that market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker cushion for the liquidity shock of the shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third,</b>With the gradual normalization of U.S. fiscal policy, the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, thereby releasing a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The fourth is</b>, the launch of the standing repurchase facility tool can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence, and reduce the probability of liquidity shortages.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the early stage of the shrinking balance sheet, from the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated</b>。 Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has once risen to more than 3%. In particular, the real interest rate has returned from-0.90% on March 1 to 0.34% on May 10, which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. The rise in US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the adjustment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it will start a shrinking balance sheet from June 1, and plans to reduce its holdings of assets by US $47.5 billion per month, and plans to reduce its holdings by US $95 billion per month three months later. assets. This is in line with the results discussed in the minutes of the March meeting, but it does not specify the end point of shrinking balance sheet. It only indicates that the pace of shrinking balance sheet will be slowed down when it is about to reach the \"sufficient level\". How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>Review of the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization</b></p><p>After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, in response to the economic recession, the Federal Reserve launched a series of unconventional monetary policy tools such as zero interest rate and quantitative easing. As the U.S. economy tends to stabilize and recover, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and launched a shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to review the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The last round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began in May 2013, when then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech that \"if it is found that the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to gradually slow down purchases at a future meeting. The speed of assets\", sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to insufficient communication with the market, the financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, known as the \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve announced the Taper timetable at its interest rate meeting. From January to October 2014, QE was cut month by month and finally ended. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve launched its first rate hike after the financial crisis, but it \"tasted it\" after only 25BP in rate hike. It was not until December 2016 that the second rate hike began, and since then, it has continuously raised policy interest rates.</p><p><b>Focus on observing shrinking balance sheet operations in the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</b>With the deepening of the rate hike process of the Federal Reserve, shrinking balance sheet has also been put on the agenda. Starting in October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS at a rate of US $6 billion and US $4 billion per month, and increase it by US $6 billion and US $4 billion every three months in the next 12 months. Increasing at a rate of US dollars. It wasn't until a year later, in October 2018, that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet rate peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion Treasury Bond + $20 billion MBS). This may reflect that,<b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Federal Reserve was more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Federal Reserve hoped to reduce the impact of liquidity tightening on the financial market through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, in August 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early.</b>At the July 2019 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop shrinking balance sheet from August of that year, two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe that there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet at that time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid simultaneous interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet, sending out different policy signals.</b>At the interest rate meeting in August 2019, in order to cope with sluggish inflation and the pressure of slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds target rate by 0.25%. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed out, the federal funds target rate is its main means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when the downward pressure on the economy increases and the policy interest rate needs to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet should \"give way\" to cutting interest rates.</p><p><b>Second, the money market began to experience a shortage of liquidity.</b>With the launch of three rounds of QE after the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism has changed from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor\" system to the unconventional \"interest rate floor\" system. In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the deposit reserve interest rate (IOR) is the upper limit of interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operating interest rate is the lower limit of interest rate. When liquidity is abundant, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will operate between them. However, since mid-2019, with the continuous reduction of liquidity, the Federal Funds rate has begun to break through the IOR as the upper limit, \"money shortage\" incidents have occurred frequently, and the \"interest rate floor\" system has gradually moved to the verge of failure. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July 2019 specifically mentioned that the reduction in reserves brought about by shrinking balance sheet led to sharp fluctuations in short-term interest rates, which also indicated that the liquidity shortage in the U.S. money market had begun to occur at that time. In its statement in October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Federal Reserve will conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Although there was a liquidity shortage in the late stage of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the performance of the U.S. stock market during the entire shrinking balance sheet was still relatively strong and was not significantly impacted.</b>Nearly a year after the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the U.S. stock market continued its previous upward trend. From the beginning of October 2017 to the end of September 2018, the S&P 500 index rose by 15.2%. Although the stock market experienced a short-term correction afterwards, it was mainly caused by the weakening of fundamentals. The U.S. manufacturing PMI has dropped significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019, as the Federal Reserve continues to release \"dovish\" signals, U.S. stocks have also begun to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet are different</b></p><p>From the perspective of growth and employment, the two major aspects that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focuses on, compared with the opening of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Different from the low inflation and low unemployment rate in early 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower but inflation is higher under the background that the labor force participation rate has not yet fully recovered. In March 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.5% year-on-year, setting a new high in the past 40 years. Moreover, under the impact of short-term factors such as declining demand for inventory replenishment and a substantial increase in the trade deficit, U.S. GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The background of high inflation determines that the rhythm of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different.</b>After then Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Federal Reserve really started Taper at the end of 2013. It was not until October 2014 that the Taper ended. After that, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to start its rate hike. From the beginning The time lag between Taper and shrinking balance sheet has reached 46 months, and the US federal benchmark interest rate at the beginning of the shrinking balance sheet has reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in response to rising inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet is faster than before.</b>Since the release of the Taper signal in the second half of 2021, the Fed's monetary policy normalization process has continued to accelerate. In this round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the time interval between the opening of Taper and the shrinking balance sheet is only about half a year, and the pace of tightening is much faster than before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting stated that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, and three months later, it plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $95 billion per month. Not only are the initial shrinking balance sheet size and rhythm much higher than the previous round (US $10 billion/month, increasing by US $10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet size is also higher than the previous round's US $50 billion per month.<b>Changes in the scale and rhythm of the shrinking balance sheet will cause the current round of the Fed's balance sheet to decline at a faster rate: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by about 700 billion dollars, a decrease of 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong, and the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits are at historically low levels. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering that the U.S. economy was affected by \"temporary factors\" such as a decline in inventory investment and a surge in imports, the annualized rate fell by 1.4% in the first quarter. Regardless of whether these are temporary shocks or not, there is still controversy, but the market and the Federal Reserve's concerns about a \"hard landing\" of the US economy are undoubtedly increasing. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effect of the combination boxing. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States ease in the future, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This is also in line with the vague statement at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May that \"it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it is about to reach the'sufficient level '\".</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The Fed's balance sheet structure and policy tools are different this time</b></p><p><b>Studying the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from the discussion of its balance sheet.</b>From the perspective of assets, the assets of the Federal Reserve are mainly securities assets it holds, that is, various Treasury Bond, MBS, etc. it purchased when expanding its balance sheet, accounting for nearly 95%; From the perspective of liabilities, the Fed's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, deposits from the Ministry of Finance and reverse repurchase agreements. The above four items account for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, which account for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, the proportion of Treasury Bond in the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and the current holding scale is about 5.7 trillion US dollars. The proportion of MBS in the total assets of the Federal Reserve dropped from 39.7% to 30.4%, but the scale also exceeded US $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared with 2017, the current difference on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet is more obvious, and the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly.</b>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet in October 2017, the general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance in the Federal Reserve's liabilities were US $185.1 billion and US $374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of the total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%, which also led to the decline of liabilities in the last round of shrinking balance sheet, mainly through the decline of reserve scale. But up to now, the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly. Among them, the scale of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance has reached 957.4 billion US dollars, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached 2.09 trillion US dollars, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two is close to the reserve scale.</p><p><b>As the current balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, shrinking balance sheet's disturbance to liquidity may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>One is</b>，<b>From the perspective of assets, the decline in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.</b>For Treasury Bond, because its maturity date and maturity scale are known, the pace of Treasury Bond's reduction is basically certain. However, there may be some uncertainties in the process of MBS reduction. This mainly stems from: 1) the possibility of prepayment exists in MBS, where borrowers can choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when they sell their home or refinance their mortgage; 2) From the perspective of operational process, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is relatively long, from the time when the principal is received (resulting in a decrease in holdings) to the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in holdings) The time interval can be up to three months. In the last round of shrinking balance sheet, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction scale was relatively higher, reaching 2/3 of Treasury Bond's reduction scale. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve's reduction of holdings is up to US $60 billion in Treasury Bond and US $35 billion in MBS per month. MBS accounts for a lower proportion of the reduction, which means that this round of shrinking balance sheet Uncertainty is relatively lower.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of debt, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that the liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, which can alleviate the liquidity impact caused by the shrinking balance sheet.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool is similar to that of my country's central bank's positive repurchase. Both of them sell securities to financial institutions and agree to repurchase them after a period of time to achieve the purpose of recovering excess liquidity in the market. Therefore, in the period of excess liquidity and low market interest rate, non-bank financial institutions will choose to invest their funds in the reverse repurchase agreement of the Federal Reserve in order to obtain stable income. The interest rate of the reverse repurchase agreement thus becomes the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor of the Federal Reserve under the sufficient reserve system, and the use of reverse repurchase tools also reflects the abundance of market liquidity to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Why is the current proportion of reverse repurchase agreements much higher than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet? First</b>For banks, there is a cost to hold reserves. After the scale of reserves held by banks increases, the scale of their overall balance sheet will also expand, which will bring higher capital regulatory requirements. Therefore, banks' willingness to hold reserves will not increase indefinitely.<b>Next</b>, the bank's income from holding reserves comes from arbitrage transactions, that is, borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repo rate (between the ON RRP rate and the deposit reserve rate), and depositing this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, get interest calculated at the deposit reserve rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the earnings of the carry trade. Before and after the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this spread remained at 25BP, but at present it is only 10BP, which undoubtedly reduced the arbitrage income of banks, thus limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, and non-bank financial institutions can only directly deposit this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also shows that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower limits of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculated the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rate, respectively, representing the distance between short-term interest rates and the upper and lower bounds of interest rates. It can be found that before and after the start of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR was smaller, which means that the short-term interest rate was closer to the upper limit at that time; At present, the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates is smaller, and the short-term interest rate is closer to the lower limit, which reflects that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liabilities of the Fed's balance sheet were mostly bank reserves. However, the current increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) is closer to the lower limit of interest rates all indicate that both banks and non-bank financial institutions The liquidity of bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Fed recovers liquidity through the shrinking balance sheet, the size of bonds held on the asset side of its balance sheet decreases; For the liability side, the corresponding reduction can be achieved through the reduction in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements (rather than through the reduction in the scale of reserves like the last round of shrinking balance sheet), thereby reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity. impact.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance will also release certain liquidity</b>。 The high increase in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance is another important feature of this shrinking balance sheet. Similar to the role of my country's fiscal deposits, changes in general deposits of the U.S. Treasury will also disturb market liquidity. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the size of the general deposits (TGA) of the Ministry of Finance in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve fluctuated to some extent, the total size basically remained below 400 billion US dollars; After the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of financing through the issuance of Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, once reaching nearly US $1.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2021, with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill, the scale of TGA declined rapidly. In mid-2021, the U.S. government debt hit the upper limit, and it was difficult for the Treasury Department to continue to raise funds through bond issuance. The balance of TGA accounts continued to decline, once falling to less than US $60 billion, releasing a large amount of liquidity to the market in the process. However, after the U.S. government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond. At the end of April, the size of the TGA account exceeded US $900 billion.<b>Looking forward, U.S. fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, which will release a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity impact brought about by the shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the launch of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) tool has also reduced the probability of liquidity shortages.</b>Since mid-2019, there have been signs of liquidity shortage in the U.S. financial market, and spot interest rates have continued to exceed the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. In September 2019, under the influence of factors such as tax payment and Treasury Bond issuance, EFFR was once 20BP higher than the deposit reserve interest rate; In March 2020, a \"money shortage\" broke out again in the U.S. financial market. The three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents future capital borrowing costs, once rose to the highest point since 2008, and the New York Fed's repurchase operations were continuously oversubscribed. Frequent liquidity shortages have attracted the attention of the Federal Reserve: In July 2021, in order to solve possible liquidity shortages during the normalization of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve launched the SRF tool \"in advance\". The facility allows qualified dealers to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve with Treasury Bond, ABS or MBS as collateral at a certain interest rate (typically set as the cap on the federal funds target rate).</p><p><b>The SRF tool works mainly through two channels: First,</b>, as mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) will only function as an interest rate ceiling if there is ample liquidity. When liquidity begins to tighten, some financial institutions are willing to borrow funds from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing short-term interest rates to break through the IOR, which is the interest rate ceiling. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thereby reducing the upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates through repurchase operations in September 2019 before the SRF tool was launched.<b>The second is</b>, the launch of the SRF tool has enhanced the market's confidence in the stability of short-term interest rates, thereby reducing the possibility of large fluctuations in market interest rates. Therefore, this tool can guarantee that the spot rate runs within the range of the target federal funds rate.</p><p><b>In addition, the usage of SRF instruments is also an important window to observe the liquidity situation of financial markets</b>: When the liquidity of the financial market can meet the actual demand, financial institutions can smoothly raise funds through the market, and the use of SRF instruments should be relatively low; When there is a shortage of liquidity in the financial market, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF tools will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that started in 2017, the intensification of inflationary pressure may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. However, the uncertainty of inflation trends and the risk of a \"hard landing\" of the US economy also make the Fed's subsequent shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the camera to observe the effect of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet's \"combination boxing\". The more important difference is that from the perspective of the scale of reverse repurchase agreements, the current liquidity in the U.S. financial market is already excessively abundant. Coupled with the possible decline in the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department and the early launch of SRF tools, this Fed shrinking balance sheet has an impact on the market. The impact of liquidity may not be as good as before.</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the time window for the end of the shrinking balance sheet may be between the end of the Fed's current rate hike and the next interest rate cut.</b>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated in previous balance sheet operations that the federal funds target rate is its main means to adjust its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data displayed by the CME FedWatch Tool, the current round of rate hike by the Federal Reserve may end in mid-2023. Once the downward pressure on the U.S. economy increases, the Federal Reserve will no longer tighten or even turn to easing again. By then, in order to avoid different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and in order to maintain the main position of interest rate means in monetary policy, there is a high probability that shrinking balance sheet will \"die down\" by then.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the initial stage of the shrinking balance sheet, asset prices may still fluctuate greatly.</b>Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in early May announced that a shrinking balance sheet was about to begin, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond soared from 0.07% on May 4 to May 10. 0.34% (while the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond on March 1 was only-0.90%), which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. In the same period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It fluctuated at a high level above 103, causing the exchange rates of most non-US currencies to plummet. U.S. stocks also experienced a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key point of 4,000. Therefore,<b>From the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b>: International geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, inflationary pressure in the United States exceeds expectations, downward pressure on the U.S. economy exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy tightening exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/70\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">钟正生经济分析 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-13 12:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's Note:</b>In May 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations, and further highlighting the need for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. After the Federal Reserve officially launched a shrinking balance sheet in June, money market interest rates were generally relatively stable, but the superimposed impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices is still worthy of vigilance.<b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, which will be increased to US $95 billion three months later. How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Fed's operations were more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow;<b>2）</b>In order to avoid sending different policy signals from interest rate cuts at the same time as shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early in August 2019, two months earlier than originally planned.</p><p><b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Compared to 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower now, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different from the past, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that during the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by approximately 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).<b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On one hand</b>The current employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong. If inflationary pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>, considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent. If inflationary pressures in the United States ease, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" of the economy.</p><p><b>At present, the balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, especially the debt-side reverse repurchase agreement and the scale and proportion of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly, which makes the disturbance of liquidity in the shrinking balance sheet relatively low. One is</b>From the perspective of assets, the proportion of MBS with greater uncertainty in scale changes has declined, which has reduced the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The second is</b>, the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has increased sharply, and short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit of interest rates, which means that market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker cushion for the liquidity shock of the shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third,</b>With the gradual normalization of U.S. fiscal policy, the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, thereby releasing a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The fourth is</b>, the launch of the standing repurchase facility tool can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence, and reduce the probability of liquidity shortages.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the early stage of the shrinking balance sheet, from the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated</b>。 Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has once risen to more than 3%. In particular, the real interest rate has returned from-0.90% on March 1 to 0.34% on May 10, which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. The rise in US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the adjustment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it will start a shrinking balance sheet from June 1, and plans to reduce its holdings of assets by US $47.5 billion per month, and plans to reduce its holdings by US $95 billion per month three months later. assets. This is in line with the results discussed in the minutes of the March meeting, but it does not specify the end point of shrinking balance sheet. It only indicates that the pace of shrinking balance sheet will be slowed down when it is about to reach the \"sufficient level\". How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>Review of the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization</b></p><p>After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, in response to the economic recession, the Federal Reserve launched a series of unconventional monetary policy tools such as zero interest rate and quantitative easing. As the U.S. economy tends to stabilize and recover, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and launched a shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to review the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The last round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began in May 2013, when then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech that \"if it is found that the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to gradually slow down purchases at a future meeting. The speed of assets\", sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to insufficient communication with the market, the financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, known as the \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve announced the Taper timetable at its interest rate meeting. From January to October 2014, QE was cut month by month and finally ended. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve launched its first rate hike after the financial crisis, but it \"tasted it\" after only 25BP in rate hike. It was not until December 2016 that the second rate hike began, and since then, it has continuously raised policy interest rates.</p><p><b>Focus on observing shrinking balance sheet operations in the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</b>With the deepening of the rate hike process of the Federal Reserve, shrinking balance sheet has also been put on the agenda. Starting in October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS at a rate of US $6 billion and US $4 billion per month, and increase it by US $6 billion and US $4 billion every three months in the next 12 months. Increasing at a rate of US dollars. It wasn't until a year later, in October 2018, that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet rate peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion Treasury Bond + $20 billion MBS). This may reflect that,<b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Federal Reserve was more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Federal Reserve hoped to reduce the impact of liquidity tightening on the financial market through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, in August 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early.</b>At the July 2019 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop shrinking balance sheet from August of that year, two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe that there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet at that time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid simultaneous interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet, sending out different policy signals.</b>At the interest rate meeting in August 2019, in order to cope with sluggish inflation and the pressure of slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds target rate by 0.25%. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed out, the federal funds target rate is its main means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when the downward pressure on the economy increases and the policy interest rate needs to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet should \"give way\" to cutting interest rates.</p><p><b>Second, the money market began to experience a shortage of liquidity.</b>With the launch of three rounds of QE after the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism has changed from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor\" system to the unconventional \"interest rate floor\" system. In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the deposit reserve interest rate (IOR) is the upper limit of interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operating interest rate is the lower limit of interest rate. When liquidity is abundant, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will operate between them. However, since mid-2019, with the continuous reduction of liquidity, the Federal Funds rate has begun to break through the IOR as the upper limit, \"money shortage\" incidents have occurred frequently, and the \"interest rate floor\" system has gradually moved to the verge of failure. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July 2019 specifically mentioned that the reduction in reserves brought about by shrinking balance sheet led to sharp fluctuations in short-term interest rates, which also indicated that the liquidity shortage in the U.S. money market had begun to occur at that time. In its statement in October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Federal Reserve will conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Although there was a liquidity shortage in the late stage of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the performance of the U.S. stock market during the entire shrinking balance sheet was still relatively strong and was not significantly impacted.</b>Nearly a year after the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the U.S. stock market continued its previous upward trend. From the beginning of October 2017 to the end of September 2018, the S&P 500 index rose by 15.2%. Although the stock market experienced a short-term correction afterwards, it was mainly caused by the weakening of fundamentals. The U.S. manufacturing PMI has dropped significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019, as the Federal Reserve continues to release \"dovish\" signals, U.S. stocks have also begun to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet are different</b></p><p>From the perspective of growth and employment, the two major aspects that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focuses on, compared with the opening of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Different from the low inflation and low unemployment rate in early 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower but inflation is higher under the background that the labor force participation rate has not yet fully recovered. In March 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.5% year-on-year, setting a new high in the past 40 years. Moreover, under the impact of short-term factors such as declining demand for inventory replenishment and a substantial increase in the trade deficit, U.S. GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The background of high inflation determines that the rhythm of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different.</b>After then Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Federal Reserve really started Taper at the end of 2013. It was not until October 2014 that the Taper ended. After that, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to start its rate hike. From the beginning The time lag between Taper and shrinking balance sheet has reached 46 months, and the US federal benchmark interest rate at the beginning of the shrinking balance sheet has reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in response to rising inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet is faster than before.</b>Since the release of the Taper signal in the second half of 2021, the Fed's monetary policy normalization process has continued to accelerate. In this round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the time interval between the opening of Taper and the shrinking balance sheet is only about half a year, and the pace of tightening is much faster than before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting stated that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, and three months later, it plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $95 billion per month. Not only are the initial shrinking balance sheet size and rhythm much higher than the previous round (US $10 billion/month, increasing by US $10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet size is also higher than the previous round's US $50 billion per month.<b>Changes in the scale and rhythm of the shrinking balance sheet will cause the current round of the Fed's balance sheet to decline at a faster rate: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by about 700 billion dollars, a decrease of 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong, and the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits are at historically low levels. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering that the U.S. economy was affected by \"temporary factors\" such as a decline in inventory investment and a surge in imports, the annualized rate fell by 1.4% in the first quarter. Regardless of whether these are temporary shocks or not, there is still controversy, but the market and the Federal Reserve's concerns about a \"hard landing\" of the US economy are undoubtedly increasing. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effect of the combination boxing. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States ease in the future, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This is also in line with the vague statement at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May that \"it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it is about to reach the'sufficient level '\".</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The Fed's balance sheet structure and policy tools are different this time</b></p><p><b>Studying the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from the discussion of its balance sheet.</b>From the perspective of assets, the assets of the Federal Reserve are mainly securities assets it holds, that is, various Treasury Bond, MBS, etc. it purchased when expanding its balance sheet, accounting for nearly 95%; From the perspective of liabilities, the Fed's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, deposits from the Ministry of Finance and reverse repurchase agreements. The above four items account for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, which account for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, the proportion of Treasury Bond in the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and the current holding scale is about 5.7 trillion US dollars. The proportion of MBS in the total assets of the Federal Reserve dropped from 39.7% to 30.4%, but the scale also exceeded US $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared with 2017, the current difference on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet is more obvious, and the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly.</b>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet in October 2017, the general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance in the Federal Reserve's liabilities were US $185.1 billion and US $374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of the total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%, which also led to the decline of liabilities in the last round of shrinking balance sheet, mainly through the decline of reserve scale. But up to now, the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly. Among them, the scale of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance has reached 957.4 billion US dollars, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached 2.09 trillion US dollars, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two is close to the reserve scale.</p><p><b>As the current balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, shrinking balance sheet's disturbance to liquidity may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>One is</b>，<b>From the perspective of assets, the decline in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.</b>For Treasury Bond, because its maturity date and maturity scale are known, the pace of Treasury Bond's reduction is basically certain. However, there may be some uncertainties in the process of MBS reduction. This mainly stems from: 1) the possibility of prepayment exists in MBS, where borrowers can choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when they sell their home or refinance their mortgage; 2) From the perspective of operational process, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is relatively long, from the time when the principal is received (resulting in a decrease in holdings) to the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in holdings) The time interval can be up to three months. In the last round of shrinking balance sheet, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction scale was relatively higher, reaching 2/3 of Treasury Bond's reduction scale. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve's reduction of holdings is up to US $60 billion in Treasury Bond and US $35 billion in MBS per month. MBS accounts for a lower proportion of the reduction, which means that this round of shrinking balance sheet Uncertainty is relatively lower.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of debt, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that the liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, which can alleviate the liquidity impact caused by the shrinking balance sheet.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool is similar to that of my country's central bank's positive repurchase. Both of them sell securities to financial institutions and agree to repurchase them after a period of time to achieve the purpose of recovering excess liquidity in the market. Therefore, in the period of excess liquidity and low market interest rate, non-bank financial institutions will choose to invest their funds in the reverse repurchase agreement of the Federal Reserve in order to obtain stable income. The interest rate of the reverse repurchase agreement thus becomes the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor of the Federal Reserve under the sufficient reserve system, and the use of reverse repurchase tools also reflects the abundance of market liquidity to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Why is the current proportion of reverse repurchase agreements much higher than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet? First</b>For banks, there is a cost to hold reserves. After the scale of reserves held by banks increases, the scale of their overall balance sheet will also expand, which will bring higher capital regulatory requirements. Therefore, banks' willingness to hold reserves will not increase indefinitely.<b>Next</b>, the bank's income from holding reserves comes from arbitrage transactions, that is, borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repo rate (between the ON RRP rate and the deposit reserve rate), and depositing this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, get interest calculated at the deposit reserve rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the earnings of the carry trade. Before and after the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this spread remained at 25BP, but at present it is only 10BP, which undoubtedly reduced the arbitrage income of banks, thus limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, and non-bank financial institutions can only directly deposit this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also shows that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower limits of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculated the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rate, respectively, representing the distance between short-term interest rates and the upper and lower bounds of interest rates. It can be found that before and after the start of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR was smaller, which means that the short-term interest rate was closer to the upper limit at that time; At present, the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates is smaller, and the short-term interest rate is closer to the lower limit, which reflects that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liabilities of the Fed's balance sheet were mostly bank reserves. However, the current increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) is closer to the lower limit of interest rates all indicate that both banks and non-bank financial institutions The liquidity of bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Fed recovers liquidity through the shrinking balance sheet, the size of bonds held on the asset side of its balance sheet decreases; For the liability side, the corresponding reduction can be achieved through the reduction in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements (rather than through the reduction in the scale of reserves like the last round of shrinking balance sheet), thereby reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity. impact.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance will also release certain liquidity</b>。 The high increase in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance is another important feature of this shrinking balance sheet. Similar to the role of my country's fiscal deposits, changes in general deposits of the U.S. Treasury will also disturb market liquidity. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the size of the general deposits (TGA) of the Ministry of Finance in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve fluctuated to some extent, the total size basically remained below 400 billion US dollars; After the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of financing through the issuance of Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, once reaching nearly US $1.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2021, with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill, the scale of TGA declined rapidly. In mid-2021, the U.S. government debt hit the upper limit, and it was difficult for the Treasury Department to continue to raise funds through bond issuance. The balance of TGA accounts continued to decline, once falling to less than US $60 billion, releasing a large amount of liquidity to the market in the process. However, after the U.S. government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond. At the end of April, the size of the TGA account exceeded US $900 billion.<b>Looking forward, U.S. fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, which will release a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity impact brought about by the shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the launch of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) tool has also reduced the probability of liquidity shortages.</b>Since mid-2019, there have been signs of liquidity shortage in the U.S. financial market, and spot interest rates have continued to exceed the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. In September 2019, under the influence of factors such as tax payment and Treasury Bond issuance, EFFR was once 20BP higher than the deposit reserve interest rate; In March 2020, a \"money shortage\" broke out again in the U.S. financial market. The three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents future capital borrowing costs, once rose to the highest point since 2008, and the New York Fed's repurchase operations were continuously oversubscribed. Frequent liquidity shortages have attracted the attention of the Federal Reserve: In July 2021, in order to solve possible liquidity shortages during the normalization of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve launched the SRF tool \"in advance\". The facility allows qualified dealers to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve with Treasury Bond, ABS or MBS as collateral at a certain interest rate (typically set as the cap on the federal funds target rate).</p><p><b>The SRF tool works mainly through two channels: First,</b>, as mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) will only function as an interest rate ceiling if there is ample liquidity. When liquidity begins to tighten, some financial institutions are willing to borrow funds from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing short-term interest rates to break through the IOR, which is the interest rate ceiling. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thereby reducing the upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates through repurchase operations in September 2019 before the SRF tool was launched.<b>The second is</b>, the launch of the SRF tool has enhanced the market's confidence in the stability of short-term interest rates, thereby reducing the possibility of large fluctuations in market interest rates. Therefore, this tool can guarantee that the spot rate runs within the range of the target federal funds rate.</p><p><b>In addition, the usage of SRF instruments is also an important window to observe the liquidity situation of financial markets</b>: When the liquidity of the financial market can meet the actual demand, financial institutions can smoothly raise funds through the market, and the use of SRF instruments should be relatively low; When there is a shortage of liquidity in the financial market, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF tools will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that started in 2017, the intensification of inflationary pressure may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. However, the uncertainty of inflation trends and the risk of a \"hard landing\" of the US economy also make the Fed's subsequent shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the camera to observe the effect of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet's \"combination boxing\". The more important difference is that from the perspective of the scale of reverse repurchase agreements, the current liquidity in the U.S. financial market is already excessively abundant. Coupled with the possible decline in the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department and the early launch of SRF tools, this Fed shrinking balance sheet has an impact on the market. The impact of liquidity may not be as good as before.</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the time window for the end of the shrinking balance sheet may be between the end of the Fed's current rate hike and the next interest rate cut.</b>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated in previous balance sheet operations that the federal funds target rate is its main means to adjust its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data displayed by the CME FedWatch Tool, the current round of rate hike by the Federal Reserve may end in mid-2023. Once the downward pressure on the U.S. economy increases, the Federal Reserve will no longer tighten or even turn to easing again. By then, in order to avoid different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and in order to maintain the main position of interest rate means in monetary policy, there is a high probability that shrinking balance sheet will \"die down\" by then.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the initial stage of the shrinking balance sheet, asset prices may still fluctuate greatly.</b>Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in early May announced that a shrinking balance sheet was about to begin, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond soared from 0.07% on May 4 to May 10. 0.34% (while the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond on March 1 was only-0.90%), which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. In the same period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It fluctuated at a high level above 103, causing the exchange rates of most non-US currencies to plummet. U.S. stocks also experienced a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key point of 4,000. Therefore,<b>From the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b>: International geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, inflationary pressure in the United States exceeds expectations, downward pressure on the U.S. economy exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy tightening exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243019507","content_text":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得警惕。核心观点2022年5月4日，美联储宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后增加到950亿美元。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。回顾上一轮美联储的缩表过程，可以发现：1）由于缺乏有效的参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，美联储并不急于大规模缩减其资产负债表，从引导紧缩到缩表步伐都相对缓慢；2）为了避免降息与缩表同时进行发出不同的政策信号，并缓解金融市场流动性短缺的情况，美联储于2019年8月提前停止了缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年相比，目前美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。这决定了本次美联储缩表的目的与以往不同，且节奏相对更快。我们估算，2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将表现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍较为强劲，若通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到加息与缩表具有一定替代性。若美国通胀压力有所缓和，为了避免经济“硬着陆”，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐。目前美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具出现了较大变化，尤其是负债端逆回购协议、财政部一般存款的规模和占比明显提升，这使得缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。一是，从资产端来看，规模变化存在较大不确定性的MBS占比下降，使得缩表的不确定性降低。二是，逆回购协议规模大幅上升、短端利率更接近利率下限，意味着市场流动性比上一轮缩表开始前更为充裕，为缩表的流动性冲击提供了更厚的缓冲垫。三是，随着美国财政政策逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的影响。四是，常备回购便利工具的推出可以在一定条件下提供流动性，并稳定市场信心，降低流动性短缺发生的概率。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。自5月美联储议息会议来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其实际利率从3月1日的-0.90%回归至5月10日的0.34%，即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。美债利率的攀升成为美股调整的重要催化。2022年5月4日，美联储公布5月FOMC议息会议声明，宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。这符合3月会议纪要讨论结果，但并未明确缩表终点，只表示将在快达到“充足水平”时减缓缩表节奏。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。一上一轮美联储货币政策正常化回顾2008年全球金融危机爆发后，为应对经济衰退，美联储推出了零利率、量化宽松等一系列非常规货币政策工具。而随着美国经济趋于稳定复苏，美联储于2013年末正式启动Taper，并在2017年10月开启缩表。而这也是美联储实施非常规货币政策以来唯一的一次缩表操作。因此，有必要对上一轮美联储货币政策正常化进行一定的回顾。美联储上一轮货币政策的正常化始于2013年5月，时任美联储主席伯南克在一次演讲中表示“如果发现美国就业市场持续好转，美联储可能在今后的某一次会议中开始逐步放慢购买资产的速度”，向市场传递了Taper信号。但由于与市场沟通并不充分，金融市场出现了显著波动，即“缩减恐慌（Taper Tantrum）”。2013年12月，美联储议息会议宣布Taper时间表，2014年1-10月逐月削减并最终结束QE。2015年12月，美联储开启了金融危机后的首次加息，但在仅加息25BP后就“浅尝辄止”,直至2016年12月才开始第二次加息，并在此后连续上调政策利率。重点观察上一轮美联储货币政策正常化中的缩表操作。随着美联储加息进程的深入，缩表也被提上日程。2017年10月开始，美联储决定以每月60亿美元、40亿美元的速度缩减其持有的国债、MBS，并在之后的12个月内按照每三个月增加60亿美元、40亿美元的速度递增。直到一年后的2018年10月，美联储缩表速度才达到每月500亿美元（300亿美元国债+200亿美元MBS）的峰值。这或许反映出，由于缺乏有效参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，当时的美联储更希望通过缓慢的、渐进式的缩表，减轻流动性收紧对金融市场的冲击。不过，2019年8月美联储提前停止了缩表。2019年7月议息会议上，美联储宣布将从当年8月起停止缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。我们认为，当时美联储停止缩表，主要有两方面原因： 一是，为了避免降息与缩表同时进行、发出不同政策信号。2019年8月议息会议上，为了应对低迷的通胀以及全球增长放缓的压力，美联储宣布将联邦基金目标利率下调0.25%。正如美联储反复指出的，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段。言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。因此，当经济下行压力加大，政策利率需要下调时，缩表要“让位”于降息。二是，货币市场开始出现流动性紧缺的情况。全球金融危机后伴随三轮QE的推出，美联储的利率调控机制已经从危机前的“利率走廊”体系（Corridor System）转变为非常规的“利率地板”体系（Floor System）。在“利率地板”体系中，存款准备金利率（IOR）作为利率上限，隔夜逆回购协议（ONRRP）操作利率则为利率下限，在流动性充裕时，联邦基金利率（EFFR）将在二者之间运行。但自2019年中开始，随着流动性的不断缩减，联邦基金利率开始突破作为上限的IOR，“钱荒”事件频发，“利率地板”体系逐渐走向失效边缘。2019年7月美联储议息会议纪要中特别提到，缩表带来的准备金减少导致短端利率大幅波动，也表明当时美国货币市场流动性已开始出现短缺。而在2019年10月美联储的声明中表示，为确保准备金充足，美联储将进行定期回购操作，以向市场注入流动性，降低货币市场风险。虽然上一轮缩表后期出现流动性紧缺，但整个缩表期间美国股市表现仍然较为强劲，并未受到明显冲击。上一轮缩表开始后的近一年时间里，美国股市延续了之前的上涨趋势，2017年10月初至2018年9月末，标普500指数涨幅达到15.2%。虽然之后股市出现短暂回调，但主要是由基本面的转弱所致，美国制造业PMI自2018年四季度开始明显回落。2019年初开始，随着美联储不断释放“鸽派”信号，美股也开始反弹。二本次美联储缩表的背景与目的不同从美联储货币政策关注的两大方面——增长与就业来看，与2017年10月开启缩表相比，本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年初的低通胀、低失业率不同，目前在劳动参与率尚未完全恢复的背景下，美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。2022年3月美国CPI同比达到8.5%，创下近40年来新高。并且，在补库存需求下滑、贸易逆差大幅增长等短期因素冲击下，2022年一季度美国GDP环比折年率下滑1.4%，经济开始出现滞胀迹象。高通胀的背景决定了本次美联储缩表的节奏不同。2013年5月时任美联储主席伯南克释放Taper信号后，2013年末美联储才真正开启Taper，直到2014年10月Taper才结束，此后又过了一年多的时间美联储才开始加息，从开始Taper到缩表之间的时滞更是达到了46个月，且开始缩表时的美国联邦基准利率已经达到1.25%-1.50%。但是，为了应对不断加剧的通胀压力，本轮美联储缩表的节奏要快于以往。从2021年下半年释放Taper信号开始，美联储的货币政策正常化进程便不断加速。本轮美联储货币政策正常化中，从开启Taper到缩表之间的时间间隔仅有半年左右，紧缩节奏较之前大大加快。美联储5月议息会议纪要表示将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。不仅初始缩表规模、节奏远高于上一轮（100亿美元/月，每三个月增加100亿美元），每月最大缩表规模亦高于上一轮的每月500亿美元。缩表规模与节奏的变化将使得本轮美联储资产负债表将以更快的比例下降：2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约7000亿美元，降幅15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将呈现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍然较为强劲，失业率、领取失业金人数等均处于历史较低位置。因此，若美国通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月其加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到美国经济在库存投资回落、进口大增等“暂时性因素”的影响下，一季度环比折年率下滑1.4%。不管对于这些是否属于暂时性冲击仍存争议，但市场和美联储对美国经济“硬着陆”的担忧无疑都是在增加的。况且，加息与缩表具有一定替代性，美联储亦会细加权衡组合拳的效应。因此，若后续美国通胀压力有所缓和，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐，以减小货币政策紧缩对经济的冲击。这也符合美联储5月议息会议上“将在快达到‘充足水平’时减缓缩表节奏”的模糊表述。三本次美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具不同研究美联储的缩表操作离不开对其资产负债表的讨论。从资产端来看，美联储的资产主要是持有的证券资产，即其在扩表时购买的各类国债、MBS等，占比接近95%；从负债端来看，美联储的负债包括现金、银行准备金、财政部存款以及逆回购协议，以上四项占比超过99%，尤其是银行准备金，占比超过40%。从资产端来看，与2017年10月相比，美联储持有的国债占比明显提升，而MBS占比相对较低。其中，国债在美联储总资产中的占比由2017年10月的55.3%上升至4月末的64.5%，目前持有规模约5.7万亿美元。而MBS在美联储总资产中的占比则由39.7%下降至30.4%，但规模也超过了2.7万亿美元。与2017年相比，当前美联储资产负债表负债端的差异更为明显，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比明显提升。2017年10月上一轮缩表开始时，美联储负债中的财政部一般存款、逆回购协议规模分别为1851亿美元、3749亿美元，占总负债的比重为4.2%、7.9%，而银行准备金占比超过50%，这也导致上一轮缩表时负债端的下降主要通过准备金规模下降实现的。但截至目前，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比均有明显提升，其中财政部一般存款规模达到9574亿美元，占比10.8%，逆回购协议规模更是达到2.09万亿美元，占比23.5%，二者之和已经接近准备金规模。由于美联储目前资产负债表结构以及政策工具均出现了较大变化，缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。 一是，从资产端来看，MBS占比下降使得缩表时的不确定性降低。对于国债来说，由于其到期日、到期规模可知，因而国债的减持步调基本是确定的。但是，MBS的减持过程可能存在一定不确定在。这主要来源于：1） MBS存在提前偿付的可能性，借款人在出售房屋或为抵押贷款再融资时，可以选择随时偿还任何额外的抵押贷款本金；2）从操作流程上看，MBS再投资的时间间隔较长，从收到本金（导致持有量减少）到相应的新 MBS 被添加到资产负债表（导致持有量增加）之间的时间间隔最长可达三个月 。在上一轮缩表时，MBS的占比较高，减持规模相对更高，达到了国债减持规模的2/3。但今年5月美联储议息会议显示，本轮缩表中美联储减持规模最多为每月600亿美元国债、350亿美元MBS，MBS在减持中的占比更低，这意味着本轮缩表的不确定性相对更低。二是，从负债端看，逆回购协议规模上升意味着市场上的流动性较为充裕，可以缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。美联储的逆回购工具与我国央行正回购的功能类似，都是通过向金融机构出售证券，并约定在一段时间后回购，来达到回收市场上多余流动性的目的。因此，在流动性过剩、市场利率较低的时期，非银金融机构为了获取稳定的收益，会选择将资金投向美联储的逆回购协议，逆回购协议利率由此成为充足准备金制度下，美联储利率走廊的下限，逆回购工具的使用量也在一定程度上反映了市场流动性的充裕程度。为何目前逆回购协议的占比均远高于上一轮缩表开始时？首先，对于银行来说，持有准备金是存在成本的。银行持有的准备金规模增加后，其整体资产负债表规模也将扩大，进而带来更高的资本监管要求，因此银行持有准备金的意愿并不会无限增长。其次，银行持有准备金的收益来自于套利交易，即按照市场回购利率（介于ON RRP 利率与存款准备金利率之间）从非银金融机构借入资金，并将这部分资金存入美联储，获得按存款准备金利率计算的利息。因此，存款准备金利率和ON RRP利率之间的价差衡量了套利交易的收益。上一轮缩表开始前后，这一利差保持在25BP，而目前仅为10BP，这无疑使得银行的套利收益下降，进而限制了其从非银金融机构借入资金的意愿。因而，大量的流动性淤积在非银金融机构中，非银金融机构只能直接将这部分资金存入美联储，导致目前逆回购协议的占比明显提升。目前联邦基金利率（EFFR）的相对位置同样表明，目前流动性较上轮缩表开始时更为充裕。如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）分别是联邦基金利率的上限和下限。我们分别计算了IOR与EFFR之差和EFFR与ON RRP利率之差，代表短期利率距离利率上限与下限的距离。可以发现，在上一轮美联储缩表开始前后，IOR与EFFR之间的差值更小，代表当时短端利率距离上限更为接近；而在目前，EFFR与ON RRP 利率的差值更小，短端利率距离下限更为接近，反映出的即是目前的流动性较上轮缩表开始时更加充裕。上一轮缩表开始时，美联储资产负债表负债端多为银行准备金，但目前逆回购协议规模的大增、以及联邦基金利率（EFFR）更接近利率下限，均表明无论是银行还是非银金融机构的流动性，均较上一轮缩表开始时更为充裕。因此，当美联储通过缩表回收流动性时，其资产负债表资产端持有的债券规模下降；而对于负债端来说，可通过逆回购协议规模的下降（而非像上一轮缩表一样，通过准备金规模的下降），实现相应的缩减，进而降低缩表对于准备金及市场流动性的冲击。三是，财政部一般存款规模的下降也将释放一定流动性。财政部一般存款规模的高增也是本次缩表时的另一项重要特点。与我国财政存款的作用类似，美国财政部一般存款的变动也会对市场流动性形成扰动。新冠疫情爆发前，美联储资产负债表中财政部一般存款（TGA）规模虽然有一定波动，但总规模基本保持在4000亿美元以下；疫情爆发后，美国财政部通过发行国债大量融资，TGA规模迅速上升，一度达到近1.8万亿美元的天量。2021年一季度，随着1.9万亿美元纾困法案的推出，TGA规模迅速下降。2021年中美国政府债务触及上限，财政部难以继续通过发债融资，TGA账户余额不断下降，一度降至不到600亿美元，在此过程中向市场释放了大量流动性。但2021年12月美国政府债务上限再次调升后，财政部通过发行国债迅速重建了其现金储备，4月末TGA账户规模已超过9000亿美元。往后看，美国财政政策也将逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而会向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。四是，常备回购便利（Standing Repo Facility，SRF）工具的推出也降低了流动性短缺发生的概率。2019年中开始，美国金融市场流动性便出现短缺迹象，即期利率不断突破联邦基金目标利率上限。2019年9月，在缴税及国债发行等因素的影响下，EFFR一度高于存款准备金利率20BP；2020年3月美国金融市场再度爆发“钱荒”，代表未来资金借贷成本的3个月FRA/OIS利差一度升至2008年以来高点，纽约联储回购操作连续遭超额认购。频繁发生的流动性短缺状况引发了美联储的关注：2021年7月，为了解决货币政策正常化过程中可能出现的流动性短缺问题，美联储“未雨绸缪”的推出了SRF工具。该工具允许合格交易商以国债、ABS或MBS为抵押品，以一定利率（通常被设定为联邦基金目标利率的上限）从美联储借入美元。SRF工具主要通过两个渠道发挥作用：一是，如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）只有在流动性充裕的情况下才会发挥利率上限的作用。当流动性开始紧张时，部分金融机构愿意以高于IOR的水平从市场借入资金，导致短端利率突破作为利率上限的IOR。SRF工具的功能简单来说便是，以一定的利率向市场释放流动性，进而降低利率的上行压力，正如2019年9月SRF工具尚未推出时，美联储通过回购操作压低短期利率一样。二是，SRF工具的推出增强了市场对于短期利率稳定的信心，进而降低了市场利率大幅波动的可能性。因此，该工具可以保证即期利率运行在联邦基金目标利率范围内。另外，SRF工具的使用量也是观察金融市场流动性状况的重要窗口：在金融市场流动性可以满足实际需求时，金融机构可通过市场顺利融资，SRF工具使用量应相对较低；而当金融市场流动性出现短缺时，金融机构会转而向美联储寻求流动性支持，SRF工具使用量也会相应上升。四小结总的来说，与2017年开启的缩表相比，通胀压力的加剧导致本次美联储缩表的节奏可能更快，但通胀走势的不确定性、以及美国经济“硬着陆”的风险，也使得美联储后续缩表的灵活性更强。与此同时，美联储也需细加权衡相机观察加息与缩表“组合拳”的效应。更重要的区别在于，从逆回购协议规模来看，目前美国金融市场的流动性已过度充裕，叠加后续财政部一般存款规模可能下降以及SRF工具的提前推出，本次美联储缩表对市场流动性的冲击或不及以往。 往后看，缩表结束的时间窗口或许在美联储本轮加息结束到下次降息之间。美联储在以往的资产负债表操作中曾多次声明，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段，言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。根据CME FedWatch Tool显示的数据，美联储本轮加息或将于2023年中结束。一旦之后美国经济下行压力加大，美联储将不再紧缩甚至再次转向宽松。届时，为了避免缩表与降息发出不同的政策信号，为了保持利率手段在货币政策中的主要地位，届时缩表大概率亦将“偃旗息鼓”。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但资产价格仍然可能出现巨大波动。自5月初美联储议息会议宣布即将开启缩表以来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其是10年期美债实际利率从5月4日的0.07%蹿升至5月10日的0.34%（而3月1日10年期美债实际利率仅为-0.90%），即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。同期，美元指数在103以上高位震荡，导致多数非美货币汇率急跌。美股也出现了明显回调，标普500指数一度跌至4000这一关键点位之下。因此，从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。风险提示：国际地缘冲突具有不确定性，美国通胀压力超预期，美国经济下行压力超预期，美联储政策紧缩力度超预期等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022783957,"gmtCreate":1653579922979,"gmtModify":1676535308313,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022783957","repostId":"1137501377","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137501377","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业与投资专业门户","home_visible":1,"media_name":"投资界","id":"1096839439","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3"},"pubTimestamp":1653549543,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137501377?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-26 15:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Global PE sweep! Is it time to buy high-quality assets at the bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137501377","media":"投资界","summary":"悲观者正确，乐观者赚钱。这是罕见的一幕：连续两天，两家PE巨头宣布了新募资。昨天（5月25日），全球四大PE之一——KKR宣布已募集完成首个亚洲信贷机遇基金，总额达11亿美元，这是首个专注于信贷投资的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The pessimists are right, the optimists make money. This is a rare scene: for two consecutive days, two PE giants announced new fundraising.</p><p>Yesterday (May 25th), KKR, one of the four largest PEs in the world, announced that it had raised the first Asian Credit Opportunity Fund, totaling USD 1.1 billion. This is the first largest regional fund focusing on credit investment and one of the largest and first-time regional credit funds in the Asia-Pacific region.</p><p>Coincidentally, the day before, Anhong Capital, one of the largest and long-standing private equity institutions in the world, announced that it would raise US $25 billion, which was the largest fundraising this year, focusing on the Greater China market. Also<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CG\">Carlyle</a>Amid the global economic downturn, buy buy drastically. Among them, the major PEs are competing for Japan's Toshiba, and the signal is self-evident.</p><p>Is it time to buy the bottom now? As the stock god Buffett said, \"Be greedy when others are afraid\", foreign PE has already taken action. Regardless of whether it is the primary market or the secondary market, the valuation has experienced a sharp correction. Coupled with macro factors such as the epidemic, war, and the US dollar rate hike, perhaps the best time to buy high-quality assets at the bottom has arrived.</p><p><b>PE replenishes ammunition, raising more than US $26 billion</b></p><p><b>Invest in Asia under the epidemic</b></p><p>Why did KKR set up an Asian Credit Fund at this time?</p><p>Brian Dillard, head of credit at KKR Asia, explained that in Asia, 80 cents of every dollar of credit capital comes from bank capital, which is much larger than that in North American or European markets. There is an imbalance between the financing needs of enterprises in Asia and the available financing. At the same time, the vigorous economic growth and prosperity in the region have also prompted borrowers to seize the opportunity to seek more flexible financing solutions.</p><p>Of course, all this is inseparable from the current background: since the outbreak of the epidemic, all walks of life have been deeply affected, and many companies have tight cash flow, and even<b>Valuations are at an all-time low. The opportunity is rare, the US dollar PE is here</b>。</p><p>Such a scene is no stranger to large foreign-funded institutions that have experienced numerous economic cycles. As early as 2004, KKR established a credit platform and completed its first non-public market credit investment project in 2005. With approximately US $184 billion in credit assets under management globally at the end of the first quarter of 2022, KKR is one of the world's largest non-public market credit platforms, with the ability to invest in all parts of the capital structure and all stages of liquidity, and is broadly active in the Australian, Greater China, India, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam markets.</p><p>Since 2019, KKR has successfully completed 14 credit investment projects in the Asia-Pacific region, of which approximately US $2.4 billion was invested by KKR, with a total transaction value of US $4.7 billion. These include acquisition financing and customized capital solutions for corporate and private equity projects in industries such as environmental services, real estate, education, infrastructure and medical care.</p><p>Lu Ming, head of KKR Asia Pacific, said, \"KKR's credit strategy is highly complementary to its existing equity strategy in Asia. The successful completion of ACOF fundraising is an important milestone for KKR Asia Pacific, and we will continue to expand our investment capabilities and capital solutions across asset classes. Asia benefits from favorable macroeconomic trends and long-term growth, while enterprises face limited financing options while growing rapidly. We believe that these opportunities create an attractive prospect for alternative asset managers such as KKR: we can provide more flexible and differentiated credit solutions than traditional lending. \"</p><p>Founded in 1976, KKR is known as the \"Wolf of Wall Street\" and is also very active in China's venture capital circle. It has been intensively deployed in the Greater China region for more than 15 years. As of 2020, it has invested more than 6 billion US dollars (approximately 40 billion yuan), more than 40 companies. Not long ago, KKR won the first fund manager license in China, and may use domestic RMB LP money to invest overseas in the future.</p><p>Interestingly, just the day before KKR officially announced the new Asian fund, well-known PE<b>Anhong Capital just created its largest fundraising of the year</b>--The scale is US $25 billion. So far, Adhong Capital's total assets under management have exceeded US $100 billion. According to public documents, Adhong Capital also emphasized the importance of investing in Greater China.</p><p>\"We are committed to continuously growing the Greater China market,\" said Andrew Li, managing director and head of Greater China at Advent Capital. In the past 10 years, Advent Capital has invested nearly 10 billion yuan in markets such as Greater China, focusing on retail and consumer goods, medical and health care and business services industries. \"<b>Our investment in this market has accelerated over the past three years, exceeding our total investment in the previous seven years</b>。”</p><p>Meanwhile, Advent Capital's Greater China local team has more than doubled in size over the past decade. Li Xian bluntly said that China plays a vital role in global economic growth. We look forward to continuing to fulfill this long-term commitment, and plan to increase investment in the Greater China market and expand the scale of local teams in the next few years.</p><p><b>From Blackstone to Carlyle</b></p><p><b>Global PE starts to sweep goods</b></p><p>As we can see, global PE is striking everywhere.</p><p>Let's start with the largest PE in the universe with trillions of dollars<b>Blackstone Group</b>Speaking of it. The latest news is that Blackstone Group intends to jointly acquire Toshiba, a 146-year-old Japanese industrial conglomerate giant, with KKR. This is an attractive piece of \"fat meat\", which PE giants have been fighting for for many years, and now they have broken into new buyers-Bloomberg reported on May 25th that Japan Investment Corporation (JIC) is considering acquiring Toshiba.</p><p>At this point, there has been a long queue behind Toshiba, almost all PE predators-Blackstone, KKR, Bain Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVC.AU\">CVC</a>Capital, etc., are all famous. I would like to add here that the well-known American PE<b>Bain Capital is preparing to raise at least $4.65 billion for its latest Asia-focused fund</b>。</p><p>Going back to Blackstone, Schwarzman, the head of the company, has said in public more than once:<b>The best investment opportunities are in China</b>。 Looking back on more than ten years in China, Blackstone can be called \"the most active investor in China's real estate\", swept across China's commercial real estate, with a total investment of over 60 billion yuan so far, and most of the investment occurred after 2018.</p><p>2021 can be said to be the most generous year for Blackstone in China-May,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>It successfully landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and its market value once exceeded HK $280 billion, and Blackstone, as its cornerstone investor, also shared the dividends brought by China's logistics development. In June, Blackstone sold $1.3 billion from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00129\">Oceanwide Group</a>Won IDG Group, a market consulting agency, whose data business and media business are well-known. At the same time, the domineering Blackstone is also sweeping goods<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01589\">PRC Logistics Assets</a>, spent more than 8 billion yuan to acquire the largest logistics park in the Greater Bay Area-R&F Integrated Logistics Park, which caused a sensation.</p><p><b>And Carlyle Investment</b>It is also investing more in China. Bloomberg reported last week that Carlyle planned to acquire HCP, a Chinese cosmetic packaging manufacturer, for US $1 billion. This news was quickly confirmed by the person in charge of Fuxiang Plastic Products Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the latter, but did not disclose the specific transaction price and other information.</p><p>This is an enterprise born in Taiwan Province, China, mainly producing lipstick, powder box, mascara and other cosmetic packaging materials and skin care packaging materials. At present, HCP has a total of 5 factories in China, including 1 in Suzhou, 2 in Shanghai and 2 in Huai'an. The brands it serves include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NZM.UK\">L 'Oreal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EL\">Estee Lauder</a>, Shiseido and other international giants, as well as China's cutting-edge head brands such as Perfect Diary and Huaxizi.</p><p>Prior to this, Carlyle had made a multi-faceted layout in China and invested in the medical industry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002294\">Xinlitai</a>, Heyu Pharmaceutical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">Chi-Med</a>And other projects, shot the perfect diary in the big consumption track,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EM\">Monster Charge</a>Waiting for new economy companies, as well as Shence Data,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09956\">Aneng Logistics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Logistics and other enterprises. As of the end of 2020, Carlyle's total equity investment in China has exceeded US $10 billion, and the investment momentum is strong.</p><p>In the latest interview, Li Yisheng, CEO of Carlyle Group, stressed that it is very important to appreciate this type of opportunities and fluctuations, because it creates opportunities. At the same time, he also expressed his optimism about the long-term prospects of the Chinese market. \"After experiencing the fluctuations in the past few months, the best CEOs and enterprises from all walks of life around the world began to think about what opportunities emerged, and Carlyle had the same mentality.\"</p><p><b>Valuation downward</b></p><p><b>Is it time to buy high-quality assets at the bottom?</b></p><p>\"Others are afraid and I am greedy\", foreign-funded institutions have ushered in a rare window period for bargain-hunting. Along this thread, we have seen the busy scene of \"bargain-hunting\" of Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market.</p><p>Since 2022, under the influence of multiple events such as the international environment and the US dollar rate hike, the primary and secondary markets have ushered in ups and downs in a downturn, and valuations have fallen to historical lows.</p><p>Last week, Sequoia America team made a sharing based on the current macro situation and various pressures, which caused a sensation. Taking Nasdaq as an example, Sequoia said: In the past six months, the technology market has evaporated unimaginable market value, and Nasdaq has fallen by 28% since November last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d37849d2d1d447ae4b41719aaf806a8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, many overseas and foreign investment management giants have increased their holdings of Chinese technology companies. In the middle of this month, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, submitted a position report for the first quarter of 2022 to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The report shows that Bridgewater continues to be optimistic about Chinese assets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Other Chinese concept stocks have increased their holdings. In addition to Bridgewater, Fidelity International, Morgan, etc. have also begun to increase their holdings of Internet stocks such as JD.com and Meituan.</p><p>In early May, Buffett's old friend Munger responded to the question of \"investing in China\". He emphasized that the reason for investing in China is to \"be able to buy better companies there at lower prices.\"</p><p><b>The reason is obvious: when the underlying valuation drops to a low level, predators with strong financial resources begin to buy high-quality assets at the bottom</b>。</p><p>Pressure comes to China's VC/PE side. At present, domestic VC/PE is coming to an extremely severe moment, and busy investors in the past are forced to press the pause button. From the data of Zero2IPO Research Center, we can see a more realistic state-in the first quarter of this year, the pace of China's equity investment market slowed down significantly, with the number and amount of investment cases falling by 27.5% and 47.1% year-on-year respectively. In other words, this year's investment The amount of money invested was nearly half less than that of the same period last year, which can be called halved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813f57913873dca32b3ec6a0661f9be4\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Out of responsibility for LP, even if they have surplus food in hand, GPs will no longer make moves easily. The reason is,<b>The aftereffects of overvaluations in previous years are beginning to emerge</b>--The inversion of the primary and secondary markets is getting worse and worse, and a large number of companies have difficulty in IPO issuance. The exit of VC/PE behind them has been blocked, and some even lost money to the B round.</p><p>In this situation, VC can't hide its loss. At the beginning of May, a venture capital tycoon bluntly stated on social platforms that at present, the proportion of investment institutions that maintain basically normal is 20%-30%, the proportion of investment institutions that have slowed down significantly is 50%-60%, and the remaining 10%-20% is completely flat, \"The market is in a downturn, friends, fasten your seat belts.\"</p><p>But there is also a positive side: as the bubble fades and prices return to rationality, we can more clearly identify assets with strong fundamentals.</p><p>The pessimists are right, the optimists make money. An investor in Beijing lamented,<b>Every time a crisis comes, it is the best time in this industry to attack cities and plunder territory</b>。</p><p>This winter may be longer than expected, but turbulent markets often contain investment opportunities that bring huge returns, just as Airbnb and Uber were both born in the depression of 2008.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global PE sweep! Is it time to buy high-quality assets at the bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal PE sweep! Is it time to buy high-quality assets at the bottom?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1096839439\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">投资界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-26 15:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The pessimists are right, the optimists make money. This is a rare scene: for two consecutive days, two PE giants announced new fundraising.</p><p>Yesterday (May 25th), KKR, one of the four largest PEs in the world, announced that it had raised the first Asian Credit Opportunity Fund, totaling USD 1.1 billion. This is the first largest regional fund focusing on credit investment and one of the largest and first-time regional credit funds in the Asia-Pacific region.</p><p>Coincidentally, the day before, Anhong Capital, one of the largest and long-standing private equity institutions in the world, announced that it would raise US $25 billion, which was the largest fundraising this year, focusing on the Greater China market. Also<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CG\">Carlyle</a>Amid the global economic downturn, buy buy drastically. Among them, the major PEs are competing for Japan's Toshiba, and the signal is self-evident.</p><p>Is it time to buy the bottom now? As the stock god Buffett said, \"Be greedy when others are afraid\", foreign PE has already taken action. Regardless of whether it is the primary market or the secondary market, the valuation has experienced a sharp correction. Coupled with macro factors such as the epidemic, war, and the US dollar rate hike, perhaps the best time to buy high-quality assets at the bottom has arrived.</p><p><b>PE replenishes ammunition, raising more than US $26 billion</b></p><p><b>Invest in Asia under the epidemic</b></p><p>Why did KKR set up an Asian Credit Fund at this time?</p><p>Brian Dillard, head of credit at KKR Asia, explained that in Asia, 80 cents of every dollar of credit capital comes from bank capital, which is much larger than that in North American or European markets. There is an imbalance between the financing needs of enterprises in Asia and the available financing. At the same time, the vigorous economic growth and prosperity in the region have also prompted borrowers to seize the opportunity to seek more flexible financing solutions.</p><p>Of course, all this is inseparable from the current background: since the outbreak of the epidemic, all walks of life have been deeply affected, and many companies have tight cash flow, and even<b>Valuations are at an all-time low. The opportunity is rare, the US dollar PE is here</b>。</p><p>Such a scene is no stranger to large foreign-funded institutions that have experienced numerous economic cycles. As early as 2004, KKR established a credit platform and completed its first non-public market credit investment project in 2005. With approximately US $184 billion in credit assets under management globally at the end of the first quarter of 2022, KKR is one of the world's largest non-public market credit platforms, with the ability to invest in all parts of the capital structure and all stages of liquidity, and is broadly active in the Australian, Greater China, India, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam markets.</p><p>Since 2019, KKR has successfully completed 14 credit investment projects in the Asia-Pacific region, of which approximately US $2.4 billion was invested by KKR, with a total transaction value of US $4.7 billion. These include acquisition financing and customized capital solutions for corporate and private equity projects in industries such as environmental services, real estate, education, infrastructure and medical care.</p><p>Lu Ming, head of KKR Asia Pacific, said, \"KKR's credit strategy is highly complementary to its existing equity strategy in Asia. The successful completion of ACOF fundraising is an important milestone for KKR Asia Pacific, and we will continue to expand our investment capabilities and capital solutions across asset classes. Asia benefits from favorable macroeconomic trends and long-term growth, while enterprises face limited financing options while growing rapidly. We believe that these opportunities create an attractive prospect for alternative asset managers such as KKR: we can provide more flexible and differentiated credit solutions than traditional lending. \"</p><p>Founded in 1976, KKR is known as the \"Wolf of Wall Street\" and is also very active in China's venture capital circle. It has been intensively deployed in the Greater China region for more than 15 years. As of 2020, it has invested more than 6 billion US dollars (approximately 40 billion yuan), more than 40 companies. Not long ago, KKR won the first fund manager license in China, and may use domestic RMB LP money to invest overseas in the future.</p><p>Interestingly, just the day before KKR officially announced the new Asian fund, well-known PE<b>Anhong Capital just created its largest fundraising of the year</b>--The scale is US $25 billion. So far, Adhong Capital's total assets under management have exceeded US $100 billion. According to public documents, Adhong Capital also emphasized the importance of investing in Greater China.</p><p>\"We are committed to continuously growing the Greater China market,\" said Andrew Li, managing director and head of Greater China at Advent Capital. In the past 10 years, Advent Capital has invested nearly 10 billion yuan in markets such as Greater China, focusing on retail and consumer goods, medical and health care and business services industries. \"<b>Our investment in this market has accelerated over the past three years, exceeding our total investment in the previous seven years</b>。”</p><p>Meanwhile, Advent Capital's Greater China local team has more than doubled in size over the past decade. Li Xian bluntly said that China plays a vital role in global economic growth. We look forward to continuing to fulfill this long-term commitment, and plan to increase investment in the Greater China market and expand the scale of local teams in the next few years.</p><p><b>From Blackstone to Carlyle</b></p><p><b>Global PE starts to sweep goods</b></p><p>As we can see, global PE is striking everywhere.</p><p>Let's start with the largest PE in the universe with trillions of dollars<b>Blackstone Group</b>Speaking of it. The latest news is that Blackstone Group intends to jointly acquire Toshiba, a 146-year-old Japanese industrial conglomerate giant, with KKR. This is an attractive piece of \"fat meat\", which PE giants have been fighting for for many years, and now they have broken into new buyers-Bloomberg reported on May 25th that Japan Investment Corporation (JIC) is considering acquiring Toshiba.</p><p>At this point, there has been a long queue behind Toshiba, almost all PE predators-Blackstone, KKR, Bain Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVC.AU\">CVC</a>Capital, etc., are all famous. I would like to add here that the well-known American PE<b>Bain Capital is preparing to raise at least $4.65 billion for its latest Asia-focused fund</b>。</p><p>Going back to Blackstone, Schwarzman, the head of the company, has said in public more than once:<b>The best investment opportunities are in China</b>。 Looking back on more than ten years in China, Blackstone can be called \"the most active investor in China's real estate\", swept across China's commercial real estate, with a total investment of over 60 billion yuan so far, and most of the investment occurred after 2018.</p><p>2021 can be said to be the most generous year for Blackstone in China-May,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">JD Logistics</a>It successfully landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and its market value once exceeded HK $280 billion, and Blackstone, as its cornerstone investor, also shared the dividends brought by China's logistics development. In June, Blackstone sold $1.3 billion from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00129\">Oceanwide Group</a>Won IDG Group, a market consulting agency, whose data business and media business are well-known. At the same time, the domineering Blackstone is also sweeping goods<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01589\">PRC Logistics Assets</a>, spent more than 8 billion yuan to acquire the largest logistics park in the Greater Bay Area-R&F Integrated Logistics Park, which caused a sensation.</p><p><b>And Carlyle Investment</b>It is also investing more in China. Bloomberg reported last week that Carlyle planned to acquire HCP, a Chinese cosmetic packaging manufacturer, for US $1 billion. This news was quickly confirmed by the person in charge of Fuxiang Plastic Products Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the latter, but did not disclose the specific transaction price and other information.</p><p>This is an enterprise born in Taiwan Province, China, mainly producing lipstick, powder box, mascara and other cosmetic packaging materials and skin care packaging materials. At present, HCP has a total of 5 factories in China, including 1 in Suzhou, 2 in Shanghai and 2 in Huai'an. The brands it serves include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NZM.UK\">L 'Oreal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EL\">Estee Lauder</a>, Shiseido and other international giants, as well as China's cutting-edge head brands such as Perfect Diary and Huaxizi.</p><p>Prior to this, Carlyle had made a multi-faceted layout in China and invested in the medical industry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002294\">Xinlitai</a>, Heyu Pharmaceutical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">Chi-Med</a>And other projects, shot the perfect diary in the big consumption track,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EM\">Monster Charge</a>Waiting for new economy companies, as well as Shence Data,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09956\">Aneng Logistics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Logistics and other enterprises. As of the end of 2020, Carlyle's total equity investment in China has exceeded US $10 billion, and the investment momentum is strong.</p><p>In the latest interview, Li Yisheng, CEO of Carlyle Group, stressed that it is very important to appreciate this type of opportunities and fluctuations, because it creates opportunities. At the same time, he also expressed his optimism about the long-term prospects of the Chinese market. \"After experiencing the fluctuations in the past few months, the best CEOs and enterprises from all walks of life around the world began to think about what opportunities emerged, and Carlyle had the same mentality.\"</p><p><b>Valuation downward</b></p><p><b>Is it time to buy high-quality assets at the bottom?</b></p><p>\"Others are afraid and I am greedy\", foreign-funded institutions have ushered in a rare window period for bargain-hunting. Along this thread, we have seen the busy scene of \"bargain-hunting\" of Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market.</p><p>Since 2022, under the influence of multiple events such as the international environment and the US dollar rate hike, the primary and secondary markets have ushered in ups and downs in a downturn, and valuations have fallen to historical lows.</p><p>Last week, Sequoia America team made a sharing based on the current macro situation and various pressures, which caused a sensation. Taking Nasdaq as an example, Sequoia said: In the past six months, the technology market has evaporated unimaginable market value, and Nasdaq has fallen by 28% since November last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d37849d2d1d447ae4b41719aaf806a8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In this context, many overseas and foreign investment management giants have increased their holdings of Chinese technology companies. In the middle of this month, Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, submitted a position report for the first quarter of 2022 to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The report shows that Bridgewater continues to be optimistic about Chinese assets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Other Chinese concept stocks have increased their holdings. In addition to Bridgewater, Fidelity International, Morgan, etc. have also begun to increase their holdings of Internet stocks such as JD.com and Meituan.</p><p>In early May, Buffett's old friend Munger responded to the question of \"investing in China\". He emphasized that the reason for investing in China is to \"be able to buy better companies there at lower prices.\"</p><p><b>The reason is obvious: when the underlying valuation drops to a low level, predators with strong financial resources begin to buy high-quality assets at the bottom</b>。</p><p>Pressure comes to China's VC/PE side. At present, domestic VC/PE is coming to an extremely severe moment, and busy investors in the past are forced to press the pause button. From the data of Zero2IPO Research Center, we can see a more realistic state-in the first quarter of this year, the pace of China's equity investment market slowed down significantly, with the number and amount of investment cases falling by 27.5% and 47.1% year-on-year respectively. In other words, this year's investment The amount of money invested was nearly half less than that of the same period last year, which can be called halved.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/813f57913873dca32b3ec6a0661f9be4\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Out of responsibility for LP, even if they have surplus food in hand, GPs will no longer make moves easily. The reason is,<b>The aftereffects of overvaluations in previous years are beginning to emerge</b>--The inversion of the primary and secondary markets is getting worse and worse, and a large number of companies have difficulty in IPO issuance. The exit of VC/PE behind them has been blocked, and some even lost money to the B round.</p><p>In this situation, VC can't hide its loss. At the beginning of May, a venture capital tycoon bluntly stated on social platforms that at present, the proportion of investment institutions that maintain basically normal is 20%-30%, the proportion of investment institutions that have slowed down significantly is 50%-60%, and the remaining 10%-20% is completely flat, \"The market is in a downturn, friends, fasten your seat belts.\"</p><p>But there is also a positive side: as the bubble fades and prices return to rationality, we can more clearly identify assets with strong fundamentals.</p><p>The pessimists are right, the optimists make money. An investor in Beijing lamented,<b>Every time a crisis comes, it is the best time in this industry to attack cities and plunder territory</b>。</p><p>This winter may be longer than expected, but turbulent markets often contain investment opportunities that bring huge returns, just as Airbnb and Uber were both born in the depression of 2008.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137501377","content_text":"悲观者正确，乐观者赚钱。这是罕见的一幕：连续两天，两家PE巨头宣布了新募资。昨天（5月25日），全球四大PE之一——KKR宣布已募集完成首个亚洲信贷机遇基金，总额达11亿美元，这是首个专注于信贷投资的最大型区域性基金，也是亚太地区最大且首次募集的区域性信贷基金之一。无独有偶，前一天，全球规模最大且历史悠久的私募股权机构之一——安宏资本宣布募集250亿美元，这是今年最大一笔募资，重点投向大中华市场。还有黑石、凯雷在全球经济低迷之际，大刀阔斧地买买买。其中，各大PE争正在抢日本东芝的一幕，信号不言而喻。现在到了抄底的时候吗？正如股神巴菲特所说，“在别人恐惧时贪婪”，外资PE已经行动了。无论一是市场还是二级市场，估值都出现了大幅回调，再叠加疫情、战争、美元加息等宏观因素，或许抄底优质资产的最好时机已经到来了。PE补充弹药，募集超260亿美金疫情下投向亚洲KKR为何会在此时设立一个亚洲信贷基金？KKR亚洲区信贷主管Brian Dillard解释，在亚洲，每一美元的信贷资本有80美分来自于银行资本，这一比例远远大于北美或欧洲市场。亚洲地区企业的融资需求和可用的融资之间存在不平衡现象。与此同时该地区的经济蓬勃增长与繁荣，也促使借款人抓住机会寻求更灵活融资的解决方案。当然，这一切离不开当下背景：自疫情暴发以来，各行各业都深受影响，不少企业现金流紧张，甚至估值处于历史最低点。机遇难逢，美元大PE来了。这样的一幕对于经历无数经济周期的外资大机构而言并不陌生。早在2004年，KKR就已建立信贷平台，并在2005年完成首个非公开市场信贷投资项目。截至2022年第一季度末，KKR在全球管理的信贷资产约为1840亿美元，是全球最大的非公开市场信贷平台之一，拥有投资于资本结构的各部分以及流动性各个阶段的能力，并广泛活跃于澳大利亚、大中华区、印度、韩国、马来西亚、新加坡和越南市场。2019年起，KKR在亚太地区已顺利完成14笔信贷投资项目，其中约24亿美元由KKR投资，交易总值达47亿美元。其中包括了针对环境服务、房地产、教育、基础设施和医疗等行业的企业与私募股权项目提供的收购融资和定制资本解决方案。KKR亚太区负责人路明表示，“KKR的信贷策略与其亚洲的现有股权战略高度互补。ACOF募资的圆满完成是KKR亚太地区的重要里程碑，我们将继续拓展跨资产类别的投资能力与资本解决方案。亚洲地区受益于有利的宏观经济趋势和长期增长，企业在快速增长的同时却面临有限的融资选择。我们认为，这些机遇为KKR等另类资产管理公司构建了颇具吸引力的前景：比起传统借贷，我们可提供更加灵活且具备差异化的信贷解决方案。”成立于1976年，KKR素有“华尔街之狼”之称，在中国创投圈也十分活跃，15余年来密集布局大中华地区，截至2020年已经投出超60亿美元（约合人民币400亿元），40余家企业。不久前，KKR更是在中国拿下了第一块基金管理人牌照，未来或将拿着国内人民币LP的钱进行海外投资。有趣的是，就在KKR官宣新亚洲基金的前一天，知名PE安宏资本刚刚缔造了今年最大一笔募资——规模250亿美元。至此，安宏资本总管理资产超1000亿美元。根据公开的文件，安宏资本同样强调了投资大中华区的重要性。“我们致力于不断发展大中华区市场。”安宏资本董事总经理兼大中华区主管李晰安（Andrew Li）表示。在过去10年中，安宏资本在大中华区等市场投资了近100亿元人民币，重点关注零售和消费品、医疗健康以及商业服务行业，“过去三年，我们在该市场的投资速度加快，超过了此前七年的总投资额。”与此同时，安宏资本的大中华本地团队规模在过去十年翻了一番多。李晰安直言，中国在全球经济增长中发挥着至关重要的作用，我们期待继续践行这一长期承诺，并计划在未来几年里，加大对大中华区市场的投资，扩大本地团队规模。从黑石到凯雷全球PE开始大扫货如我们所见，全球PE正四处出击。先从坐拥万亿美元的宇宙第一大PE黑石集团说起。最新消息是，黑石集团打算与KKR联合收购拥有146年历史的日本工业集团巨头东芝。这是一块诱人的“肥肉”，PE巨头争抢多年，现在还闯入了新的买家——彭博5月25日报道称，日本投资公司（JIC）正在考虑收购东芝公司。至此，东芝身后已经排起了长队，几乎清一色PE大鳄——黑石、KKR、贝恩资本、CVC资本等等，全都是赫赫有名。这里补充一下，美国知名PE贝恩资本正在准备为最新一只专注于亚洲的基金筹资至少46.5亿美元。继续说回黑石，公司掌门人苏世民曾不止一次地在公开场合中说过：最好的投资机会在中国。回首入华十余年，黑石堪称“中国房地产最积极投资者”，横扫中国商业地产，至今投资总额超600亿元，且大部分投资发生在2018年以后。2021年，可以说是黑石出手中国最为阔绰的年度——5月，京东物流成功登陆港交所，市值一度超2800亿港元， 而黑石作为其基石投资者也同样分享着中国物流发展所带来的红利。6月，黑石以13亿美元从泛海集团手中拿下市场咨询机构IDG集团，后者旗下数据业务和媒体业务赫赫有名。同时，霸气的黑石也在扫货中国物流资产，斥资超80亿元全股权拿下了大湾区最大物流园——富力综合物流园区，轰动一时。还有凯雷投资也在加码投资中国。彭博社上周报道称，凯雷拟以10亿美元收购中国彩妆包材商HCP，这一消息很快得到了后者旗下富祥塑胶制品有限公司负责人的确认，但并未透露具体交易价格等信息。这是一家诞生于中国台湾的企业，主要生产口红、粉盒、睫毛膏等彩妆包材和护肤包材。目前，HCP在中国共有5家工厂，其中在苏州有1家，上海和淮安分别有2家，服务的品牌包含宝洁、欧莱雅、雅诗兰黛、资生堂等国际巨头，以及完美日记、花西子等中国新锐头部品牌。在此之前，凯雷已经在中国多方位布局，在医疗行业投出了信立泰、和誉医药、和黄医药等项目，在大消费赛道出手完美日记、怪兽充电等新经济公司，以及神策数据、安能物流、京东物流等等企业。截至2020年末，凯雷在中国的股本投资总额已超过100亿美元，投资势头强劲。最新的采访中，凯雷集团CEO李揆晟强调，懂得欣赏这种类型的机会和波动非常重要，因为它创造了机会，同时他也表达了对中国市场长期前景的看好，“经历过去几个月的波动后，全球各行各业最优秀的CEO和企业都开始思考有哪些机会由此涌现，凯雷也是这样的心态。”估值下行抄底优质资产的时机到了？“别人恐惧我贪婪”，外资机构迎来了难得的抄底窗口期。沿着这条脉络，我们看到了二级市场“抄底”中概股的忙碌一幕。2022年以来，在国际环境、美元加息等多重事件的影响下，一二级市场迎来跌宕起伏的低迷形势，估值跌至历史低位。上周，红杉美国团队基于当下的宏观形势以及各种压力进行了一次分享，引发轰动。红杉美国以纳斯达克为例表示：过去六个月里，科技市场蒸发了难以想象的市值，纳斯达克从去年11月以来跌去了28%。在此背景下，不少海外资管巨头加码扫货，包括对中国科技公司的增持——本月中旬，全球最大对冲基金桥水向美国证券交易委员会提交了2022年一季度持仓报告。报告显示，桥水继续看好中国资产，阿里巴巴、拼多多、百度等中概股均获增持。除桥水外，富达国际、摩根等也开始增持京东、美团等互联网股票。5月初，巴菲特老友芒格回应了“投资于中国”的问题，他强调，在中国投资的原因是，“能够在那里以更低的价格买到更好的公司”。道理显而易见：当标的估值下行至低位，家底雄厚的大鳄们开始抄底优质资产。压力来到中国VC/PE这边。眼下国内VC/PE正来到极为严峻的时刻，昔日忙碌的投资人被迫按下了暂停键。我们从清科研究中心的数据，看到更为真实的状态——今年一季度，中国股权投资市场节奏明显放缓，投资案例数和金额分别同比下降27.5%和47.1%，换言之，今年投出的钱比去年同期少了近一半，堪称腰斩。出于对LP负责，即使手握余粮，GP们也不再轻易出手。究其原因，前几年估值过高的后遗症开始显现——一二级市场倒挂愈演愈烈，大批公司IPO发行困难，身后的VC/PE退出受阻，有的甚至亏到了B轮。此情此景，VC难掩失落。5月初，一位创投大佬在社交平台直言，目前保持基本正常的投资机构占比20%—30%，步伐明显放缓的投资机构占比50%—60%，剩下的10%—20%彻底躺平，“大市低迷，各位朋友，系好安全带。”但也有积极的一面：随着泡沫褪去，价格回归理性，我们能更清晰地识别基本面过硬的资产。悲观者正确，乐观者赚钱。北京一位投资人感慨，每次危机来的时候，都是这个行业里面攻城掠地最好的时候。这一次寒冬或比想象中的更漫长，但动荡市场往往蕴藏着带来巨大回报的投资机会，正如Airbnb和Uber都诞生于萧条的2008年。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092077416,"gmtCreate":1644502697229,"gmtModify":1676533934134,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092077416","repostId":"2210980598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210980598","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644495276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210980598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 20:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210980598","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b><b>In 2022, the Fed's monetary policy will accelerate its shift to \"data dependence\", but the problem is that in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</b>In the FOMC statement in January, the Federal Reserve mentioned that \"soon\" will be \"suitable\" for rate hike, clearly indicating that rate hike in March is coming. However, regarding the specific policy path, Powell repeatedly emphasized in the question and answer session of the press conference,<b>Officials did not make any decision, and said that the FOMC needs to remain nimble and does not rule out any options.</b></p><p>\"We will make decisions based on the data that will be released next and the evolving outlook,\" Powell said.</p><p><b>This statement creates an uncertain atmosphere for the market:</b>How many times will the Fed rate hike this year? Will there be a sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in previous meetings? Point in time in shrinking balance sheet? These issues remain ambiguous.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Jonathan Pingle pointed out in a recent report that the January FOMC meeting focused on nimble when answering which policy rate path is the most appropriate, which means that the Fed's monetary policy will change from the \"new normal\" to \"nimble\" in 2022. \"flexibility\" and will accelerate the shift to \"data dependence.\"</p><p>This sounds similar to Yellen's emphasis that rate hike will be based on economic data, and it also seems to correspond to an earlier \"discretion\".</p><p>So, how to understand this new \"improvisation\" framework of the Federal Reserve? UBS believes that this time is different from the \"data dependence\" of Yellen's era, so what is the difference? What does it mean for the market?</p><p><h2>The new framework of \"improvising\": the essence is still to maintain discretion</h2>The January meeting largely abandoned forward guidance, apart from saying a rate hike would begin \"soon\".</p><p>Powell first stated at the press conference that he would not rule out the possibility of rate hike at every meeting, throwing out the most serious situation, but then Fed officials delivered speeches one after another, with a more moderate style and room.</p><p>For now, basically all officials have hit back at the March rate hike of 50 basis points, and most officials seem to be hinting at about four rate hike of 25 basis points this year.</p><p>Many officials also expressed<b>Policy will follow data</b>Signal of:</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic initially said that he could rate hike 50 basis points at a time if necessary, but then immediately \"changed his mind\" and said that rate hike's 50 basis points was not his preferred policy action in March; He said in an article in the Financial Times that he wanted three rate hike in 2022,<b>But other possibilities are not ruled out.</b>He also said: \"I think the message the chairman is trying to convey is:<b>We are not on any particular track. The data will tell us what happened.</b>Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashkari said on January 28: \"We hope that price pressures will naturally ease as supply chain issues resolve, which means the Fed has to do less. Now, the committee has signaled that most officials believe there may be three rate hike this year, about 25 basis points each.<b>However, we must see the corresponding data.</b>\"San Francisco Fed President Daly said on January 31:\" A lot of reference is appropriate. Assuming there are 4 rate hike in 2022 and interest rates reach 1.25%, this is quite a tightening, but it is also quite a lot of room left in the system, because the neutral rate is 2.5%, which is still supporting the economy, not causing disruption.<b>I think this balance is the proper way to deal with the uncertainty we face.</b>Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on February 1: \"Can we rate hike 50 basis points at a time? Yes. But should we? I'm not so sure about that right now...<b>If inflation stays where it is now and continues to decline, I don't think it will be a 50 basis point rate hike.</b>UBS believes that,<b>Officials began with quarterly rate hike, sidestepping the inference that the market is rate hike at every meeting, leaving open the option of accelerating or slowing policy later.</b></p><p>The current UBS baseline forecast is that the FOMC will withdraw its easing policy by rate hike of 25 basis points each quarter (March, June, September and December) this year, and start shrinking the balance sheet at the May FOMC meeting (or possibly no later than the July meeting).</p><p>However, the bank believes that,<b>This path will be highly dependent on data, especially inflation data and data reflecting the outlook for inflation. Among them, the inflation data in May will be a watershed affecting the policy direction:</b></p><p>If inflation data unexpectedly continues to rise in the first half of the year (all the way through May), then in the second half of the year, the FOMC may shift from quarterly rate hike to a rhythm of rate hike per meeting, and the June FOMC meeting may start to convey the signal of July rate hike, and then at subsequent meetings, as needed, a consecutive rate hike of 25 basis points. In turn, the FOMC may also pause rate hike if inflation starts to weaken in the second half of the year. This suggests that the new framework retains the \"flexibility\" options the Fed needs in the second half of this year, while, in essence, the Fed is still maintaining discretion.</p><p><h2>It's really different this time?</h2>The Federal Reserve has always avoided using certain fixed rules to restrict its monetary policy decisions. For example, during the Yellen period, in order to maintain discretion, the Federal Reserve often pushed theory first and constantly updated the framework with innovative academic research results.</p><p>In the Powell era, especially after the outbreak of the epidemic, this tendency became more obvious. The media even used \"Powell's Federal Reserve looks like Greenspan's time\" to describe Powell's emphasis on discretion and refusal to be rules and regulations.</p><p>But discretion has its drawbacks. Without a firm commitment, it is harder for the Fed to convince markets that it is serious about achieving its 2% inflation target.</p><p>However, UBS believes that<b>The Fed's \"data dependency\" today is quite different than it was in the previous 20 years</b>, during Yellen's tenure as Fed president, although the Fed's policy had a very clear \"data dependence\", Yellen often said, \"the policy did not follow the preset route\", but the rate hike path at that time basically followed a stable and predictable pattern.</p><p>For example, in June 2015, San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke after the then FOMC meeting and said, \"What does this mean for interest rates? As I said, policy is data-dependent.\" The speech ended with \"I can't tell you the specific rate hike date … but I can't anyway …\".</p><p>But at that meeting, the median Fed forecast for fourth quarter 2015 GDP was 1.8%-2.0%. The final result proved that GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.9%.</p><p>This shows that the Federal Reserve at that time had a large extent of control over economic data, and the Federal Reserve could set the policy path in advance, but this time it was really different.</p><p>Because in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</p><p>Take the most critical inflation data as an example,<b>Professional Forecasters in Recent Philadelphia Fed Survey on Q4 2021 GDP Deflator</b>(a common measure of inflation)<b>The predicted dispersion of, as high as the peak during the financial crisis.</b>This increased uncertainty is reminiscent of the years leading up to the 1990s, the decades before the so-called \"Great Moderation of Inflation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, there are many differences among analysts about future inflation expectations, and the supply chain disruption caused by the epidemic is undoubtedly one of the disruptive factors.</p><p>In addition, some analysts believe that, compared with the flattening of Phillips curve during the \"great easing of inflation\" period (referring to the decline of unemployment rate, which did not bring about the increase of inflation rate), today's economic environment-globalization trend has been reversed in 2008, the downward trend of capital factor prices is facing zero interest rate constraints, the global demographic dividend is drifting away, the burden of an aging society is getting heavier and heavier, and monetary policy has quietly reduced the weight of stabilizing inflation.</p><p>Today's Fed faces greater challenges, with a more uncertain economic outlook and far more volatile macroeconomic data. In the eyes of professional forecasters, even for the past fourth quarter, economic forecasts are very divergent.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes that data dependency may be an escape during the Great Moderation, but<b>Data dependencies in the current context are necessary.</b>Given the widespread uncertainty and data volatility, the FOMC has no choice.</p><p><h2>Policy will run the risk of more instability</h2>Although the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework helps it respond to various possible outcomes in a timely manner, to repeat the previous article, discretion has its shortcomings. For the market, this flexibility also means less predictability, possibly less regularity.</p><p>In addition, if the central bank relies on data, which is more volatile than in recent history, this means that policy is also at risk of more volatile, which also represents another source of macroeconomic volatility.</p><p>And UBS said,<b>Central banks' reliance on data with increased volatility will be part of a new era of macroeconomics.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's really different this time? How to understand the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-10 20:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b><b>In 2022, the Fed's monetary policy will accelerate its shift to \"data dependence\", but the problem is that in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</b>In the FOMC statement in January, the Federal Reserve mentioned that \"soon\" will be \"suitable\" for rate hike, clearly indicating that rate hike in March is coming. However, regarding the specific policy path, Powell repeatedly emphasized in the question and answer session of the press conference,<b>Officials did not make any decision, and said that the FOMC needs to remain nimble and does not rule out any options.</b></p><p>\"We will make decisions based on the data that will be released next and the evolving outlook,\" Powell said.</p><p><b>This statement creates an uncertain atmosphere for the market:</b>How many times will the Fed rate hike this year? Will there be a sharp rate hike of 50 basis points in previous meetings? Point in time in shrinking balance sheet? These issues remain ambiguous.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Analyst Jonathan Pingle pointed out in a recent report that the January FOMC meeting focused on nimble when answering which policy rate path is the most appropriate, which means that the Fed's monetary policy will change from the \"new normal\" to \"nimble\" in 2022. \"flexibility\" and will accelerate the shift to \"data dependence.\"</p><p>This sounds similar to Yellen's emphasis that rate hike will be based on economic data, and it also seems to correspond to an earlier \"discretion\".</p><p>So, how to understand this new \"improvisation\" framework of the Federal Reserve? UBS believes that this time is different from the \"data dependence\" of Yellen's era, so what is the difference? What does it mean for the market?</p><p><h2>The new framework of \"improvising\": the essence is still to maintain discretion</h2>The January meeting largely abandoned forward guidance, apart from saying a rate hike would begin \"soon\".</p><p>Powell first stated at the press conference that he would not rule out the possibility of rate hike at every meeting, throwing out the most serious situation, but then Fed officials delivered speeches one after another, with a more moderate style and room.</p><p>For now, basically all officials have hit back at the March rate hike of 50 basis points, and most officials seem to be hinting at about four rate hike of 25 basis points this year.</p><p>Many officials also expressed<b>Policy will follow data</b>Signal of:</p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic initially said that he could rate hike 50 basis points at a time if necessary, but then immediately \"changed his mind\" and said that rate hike's 50 basis points was not his preferred policy action in March; He said in an article in the Financial Times that he wanted three rate hike in 2022,<b>But other possibilities are not ruled out.</b>He also said: \"I think the message the chairman is trying to convey is:<b>We are not on any particular track. The data will tell us what happened.</b>Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashkari said on January 28: \"We hope that price pressures will naturally ease as supply chain issues resolve, which means the Fed has to do less. Now, the committee has signaled that most officials believe there may be three rate hike this year, about 25 basis points each.<b>However, we must see the corresponding data.</b>\"San Francisco Fed President Daly said on January 31:\" A lot of reference is appropriate. Assuming there are 4 rate hike in 2022 and interest rates reach 1.25%, this is quite a tightening, but it is also quite a lot of room left in the system, because the neutral rate is 2.5%, which is still supporting the economy, not causing disruption.<b>I think this balance is the proper way to deal with the uncertainty we face.</b>Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on February 1: \"Can we rate hike 50 basis points at a time? Yes. But should we? I'm not so sure about that right now...<b>If inflation stays where it is now and continues to decline, I don't think it will be a 50 basis point rate hike.</b>UBS believes that,<b>Officials began with quarterly rate hike, sidestepping the inference that the market is rate hike at every meeting, leaving open the option of accelerating or slowing policy later.</b></p><p>The current UBS baseline forecast is that the FOMC will withdraw its easing policy by rate hike of 25 basis points each quarter (March, June, September and December) this year, and start shrinking the balance sheet at the May FOMC meeting (or possibly no later than the July meeting).</p><p>However, the bank believes that,<b>This path will be highly dependent on data, especially inflation data and data reflecting the outlook for inflation. Among them, the inflation data in May will be a watershed affecting the policy direction:</b></p><p>If inflation data unexpectedly continues to rise in the first half of the year (all the way through May), then in the second half of the year, the FOMC may shift from quarterly rate hike to a rhythm of rate hike per meeting, and the June FOMC meeting may start to convey the signal of July rate hike, and then at subsequent meetings, as needed, a consecutive rate hike of 25 basis points. In turn, the FOMC may also pause rate hike if inflation starts to weaken in the second half of the year. This suggests that the new framework retains the \"flexibility\" options the Fed needs in the second half of this year, while, in essence, the Fed is still maintaining discretion.</p><p><h2>It's really different this time?</h2>The Federal Reserve has always avoided using certain fixed rules to restrict its monetary policy decisions. For example, during the Yellen period, in order to maintain discretion, the Federal Reserve often pushed theory first and constantly updated the framework with innovative academic research results.</p><p>In the Powell era, especially after the outbreak of the epidemic, this tendency became more obvious. The media even used \"Powell's Federal Reserve looks like Greenspan's time\" to describe Powell's emphasis on discretion and refusal to be rules and regulations.</p><p>But discretion has its drawbacks. Without a firm commitment, it is harder for the Fed to convince markets that it is serious about achieving its 2% inflation target.</p><p>However, UBS believes that<b>The Fed's \"data dependency\" today is quite different than it was in the previous 20 years</b>, during Yellen's tenure as Fed president, although the Fed's policy had a very clear \"data dependence\", Yellen often said, \"the policy did not follow the preset route\", but the rate hike path at that time basically followed a stable and predictable pattern.</p><p>For example, in June 2015, San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke after the then FOMC meeting and said, \"What does this mean for interest rates? As I said, policy is data-dependent.\" The speech ended with \"I can't tell you the specific rate hike date … but I can't anyway …\".</p><p>But at that meeting, the median Fed forecast for fourth quarter 2015 GDP was 1.8%-2.0%. The final result proved that GDP in the fourth quarter was 1.9%.</p><p>This shows that the Federal Reserve at that time had a large extent of control over economic data, and the Federal Reserve could set the policy path in advance, but this time it was really different.</p><p>Because in the new rate hike cycle, the predictability of data is too low.</p><p>Take the most critical inflation data as an example,<b>Professional Forecasters in Recent Philadelphia Fed Survey on Q4 2021 GDP Deflator</b>(a common measure of inflation)<b>The predicted dispersion of, as high as the peak during the financial crisis.</b>This increased uncertainty is reminiscent of the years leading up to the 1990s, the decades before the so-called \"Great Moderation of Inflation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d232bcee9b0a618cc8142eb1fd2438bd\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At present, there are many differences among analysts about future inflation expectations, and the supply chain disruption caused by the epidemic is undoubtedly one of the disruptive factors.</p><p>In addition, some analysts believe that, compared with the flattening of Phillips curve during the \"great easing of inflation\" period (referring to the decline of unemployment rate, which did not bring about the increase of inflation rate), today's economic environment-globalization trend has been reversed in 2008, the downward trend of capital factor prices is facing zero interest rate constraints, the global demographic dividend is drifting away, the burden of an aging society is getting heavier and heavier, and monetary policy has quietly reduced the weight of stabilizing inflation.</p><p>Today's Fed faces greater challenges, with a more uncertain economic outlook and far more volatile macroeconomic data. In the eyes of professional forecasters, even for the past fourth quarter, economic forecasts are very divergent.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes that data dependency may be an escape during the Great Moderation, but<b>Data dependencies in the current context are necessary.</b>Given the widespread uncertainty and data volatility, the FOMC has no choice.</p><p><h2>Policy will run the risk of more instability</h2>Although the Fed's new \"improvisation\" framework helps it respond to various possible outcomes in a timely manner, to repeat the previous article, discretion has its shortcomings. For the market, this flexibility also means less predictability, possibly less regularity.</p><p>In addition, if the central bank relies on data, which is more volatile than in recent history, this means that policy is also at risk of more volatile, which also represents another source of macroeconomic volatility.</p><p>And UBS said,<b>Central banks' reliance on data with increased volatility will be part of a new era of macroeconomics.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651603","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210980598","content_text":"摘要：2022年美联储货币政策将加速转向“数据依赖性”，但问题在于在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。在1月的FOMC声明中，美联储提到“很快”将“适合”加息，清晰地表明3月加息即将到来，不过对于具体的政策路径，鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节多次强调，官员们并未做出任何决定，并表示FOMC需要保持灵活应变（\"nimble\"），不排除任何选择。鲍威尔表示，“我们将根据接下来公布的数据和不断演变的前景去做决定”。这番表述给市场营造了一种不确定的氛围：美联储今年到底会加息几次？前几次会议是否会大幅加息50个基点？缩表的时间点？这些问题仍然不明确。瑞银分析师Jonathan Pingle在最近的报告中指出，1月FOMC会议在回答哪条政策利率路径最为合适时，重点提到了灵活应变（nimble），这意味着2022美联储货币政策从“新常态”转变为“灵活应变”，并将加速转向“数据依赖性”。这听上去与耶伦当年强调加息将基于经济数据的理念似曾相似，也似乎可以对应到更早一点的“自由裁量权”（discretion）。那么，如何理解美联储这种“随机应变”式新框架？瑞银认为这一次与耶伦时期的“数据依赖”不一样，那到底哪儿不一样？对于市场来说意味着什么？“随机应变”式新框架：本质仍是保持自由裁量权除了表示“很快”就开始加息外，1月会议基本放弃了前瞻性指引。鲍威尔先是在发布会上表示不排除每次会议都加息的可能性，将最为严重的情况抛了出来，但随后美联储官员陆续发表讲话，风格又更加温和和留有余地。目前，基本上所有官员都对3月加息50个基点进行了回击，大多数官员似乎都在暗示今年大约将加息4次，每次25个基点。很多官员也表达了政策将遵循数据的信号：亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克一开始表示如有必要可以一次加息50基点，但随后又立马“改口”称，加息50个基点不是他在3月份的首选政策行动；他在英国《金融时报》的一篇文章中表示，希望2022年加息三次，但不排除其他可能性。他还表示：“我认为主席想要传达的信息是：我们没有走上任何特定的轨道。数据会告诉我们发生了什么。”明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里1月28日表示：“我们希望物价压力会随着供应链问题解决而自然得到缓解，这意味着美联储不得不做得更少。现在，委员会已经发出信号，大多数官员认为今年可能会有三次加息，每次大约25个基点。但是，我们必须看到相应的数据。”旧金山联储主席戴利1月31日表示：“多多参考才是合适的。假设2022年加息4次，利率达到1.25%，这是相当大的紧缩，但也是系统中留下的相当大的空间，因为中性利率是2.5%，这仍然在支持经济，而不是造成破坏。我认为这种平衡是应对我们面临的不确定性的恰当方式。”费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克2月1日表示：“我们能一次加息50个基点吗？可以的。但我们应该吗？我现在不太确定这一点……如果通胀保持在现在的水平，并继续下降，我不认为会加息50个基点。”瑞银认为，官员们以季度加息开始，回避了市场每次会议都加息的推断，保留了以后加速或放缓政策的选项。目前瑞银的基线预测是，FOMC将通过今年每个季度（3月、6月、9月和12月）加息25个基点来撤走宽松政策，并在5月的FOMC会议（或可能不迟于7月的会议）上开始缩减资产负债表。然而，该行认为，这条路径将高度依赖于数据，尤其是通胀数据以及反映通胀前景的数据。其中，5月份的通胀数据将是影响政策走向的分水岭：如果上半年（一直到5月）通胀数据出人意料地继续上升，那么在今年下半年，FOMC可能会从季度加息转向每次会议加息的节奏，6月FOMC会议可能会开始传达7月加息的信号，然后在随后的会议上，根据需要，连续加息25个基点。反过来，如果下半年通胀开始走软，FOMC也可能会暂停加息。这表明，新框架保留了美联储今年下半年所需的“灵活应变”的选择权，而从本质上看，美联储仍是在保持自由裁量权。这次真的不一样？美联储一直避免使用某种固定的规则来约束自己的货币政策决策，如在耶伦时期，为了保持自由裁量权，美联储常常推动理论先行，以创新性的学术研究成果来对框架不断更新。到了鲍威尔时代，尤其在疫情爆发后，这样的倾向更加明显。媒体甚至用“鲍威尔的美联储仿佛格林斯潘时的模样”来形容鲍威尔强调自由裁量，拒绝条条框框。但是自由裁量权有其缺点。在没有坚定承诺的情况下，美联储更难让市场相信，其实现2%的通胀目标是认真的。不过，瑞银认为，如今美联储的“数据依赖”与之前20年的情况截然不同，在耶伦作为联储主席的时期，尽管美联储政策有着非常明确的“数据依赖性”，耶伦经常说，“政策并没有按照预先设定的路线走”，但当时的加息路径基本上遵循了一种稳定、可预测的模式。比如2015年6月，旧金山联储主席Williams在当时的FOMC会议后发表讲话说：“这对利率意味着什么？正如我所说的，政策是依赖数据的。”演讲以“我不能告诉你具体加息日期……但无论如何我不能……”结束。但在那次会议上，美联储对2015年第四季度GDP的预测中值为1.8%-2.0%。最终结果证明，四季度GDP为1.9%。这说明，当时的美联储对经济数据很大程度上是有掌控的，美联储是可以预先设定政策路径的，然而这一次真的不一样。因为在新一轮加息周期中，数据的可预测性太低了。拿最关键的通胀数据来说，近期费城联储调查的专业预测员对2021年第四季度GDP平减指数（衡量通货膨胀的常用指标）的预测离散度，高达金融危机期间的峰值。这种不确定性的增加让人想起上世纪90年代之前的那些年，也就是所谓的“通胀大缓和”之前的几十年。当下对于未来通胀的预期，分析师存在很多分歧，疫情导致的供应链中断无疑是其中的扰乱因素之一。除此之外，有分析师认为，与“通胀大缓和”时期菲利普斯曲线平坦化（指失业率下降，并没有带来通胀率的上升）相对的是，如今的经济环境——全球化趋势已经在2008年出现逆转，资本要素价格下行面临零利率约束，全球人口红利渐行渐远，老龄化社会的负担越来越重，货币政策也悄然降低了稳通胀的权重，货币当局不仅面临着更复杂的权衡，还需谨慎维护其独立性，这些因素都是呼唤通胀回归和菲利普斯曲线“复活”的力量。今天的美联储面临着更大的挑战，经济前景更加不确定，宏观经济数据的波动性要大得多。在专业预测人士眼中，即使是对已经过去的第四季度，经济预测分歧也非常大。因此，瑞银认为，在“大缓和”时期，数据依赖可能是一种逃避，但当前背景下的数据依赖性是必要的。考虑到广泛的不确定性和数据波动性，FOMC别无选择。政策将有更不稳定的风险虽然美联储“随机应变”式的新框架有助于其及时应对各种可能的结果，但重复一下前文，自由裁量权是有其缺点的，对于市场而言，这种灵活性也意味着更少的可预测性，可能更少的规律性。除此之外，如果央行依赖于数据，而数据相比近代历史更不稳定，这意味着政策也有更不稳定的风险，这也代表着宏观经济波动的另一个来源。而瑞银表示，央行对波动性加剧的数据的依赖，将是宏观经济新时代的一部分。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091584405,"gmtCreate":1643900259622,"gmtModify":1676533869437,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091584405","repostId":"2208360102","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2208360102","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1643859305,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2208360102?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-03 11:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to \"buy on dips\". What is the basis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208360102","media":"Wind万得","summary":"如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The S&P500 entered correction territory last week as the Federal Reserve'S policy adjustment caused violent market shock, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) believes that this pullback signals a buying opportunity for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Wall Street firm said that if history is any reference, a correction rarely turns into a bear market unless the economy enters a recession. \"From a historical perspective, S&P 500 revisions are usually good buying opportunities,\" David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in a note. \"If the economy is not entering a recession, a market correction is usually a good buying opportunity.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve said last week it would raise interest rates soon, the first time in more than three years, as part of a sweeping tightening of historically accommodative monetary policy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Powell was the toughest since he became chairman. Powell reiterated that the current tightening cycle is different from the previous one, with a strong labor market, a strong economy and above-target inflation.</p><p>Feroli believes: \"Although Powell has not yet made a clear statement, he made it clear that continuous rate hike in consecutive meetings is a possibility, and this is also a risk we have been paying attention to.\"</p><p>\"The Fed is now chasing inflation and in a panic,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, who was more hawkish in his comments than the initial statement. It affirms the Fed's stance.</p><p>The shift has triggered a significant increase in volatility on Wall Street recently, with investors struggling to reprice assets based on interest rate risk. The S&P 500 index fell about 7% in January, down 8% from its record high at the beginning of the month; It was also the worst month since March 2020.</p><p>Tech stocks led the decline in the new year as investors dumped high and sometimes unprofitable stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 12% in January and is down 15% from its all-time high. Still, Goldman notes that a 10% adjustment is not unusual in a given calendar year.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs, since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a median peak-to-trough decline of 13% in a calendar year, with corrections of more than 10% in 62% of years. Goldman Sachs said that since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen 33 pullbacks of 10% or more, with the midpoint lasting about five months, with a decline of 18% from high to trough.</p><p>If investors bought the S&P 500 10% below its high, regardless of whether it was the rock bottom at that time, the average investor return was 15% over the subsequent 12 months, the company said. Goldman Sachs said that in 21 non-recession adjustments, the S&P 500 usually falls 15%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>About halfway through earnings season, the number of companies with sales and profits beating Wall Street expectations is higher than average, albeit lower than levels seen early in the recovery, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank.</p><p>However, Maneesh Deshpande, managing director of Barclays Capital, said that corporate performance has been good, but the considerations include not only the Fed's changes in monetary policy, but also the Fed's rate hike in a seemingly weak economy. \"Both of those things are a problem now,\" he said. \"This time, the earnings may not save the day.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to \"buy on dips\". What is the basis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs believes that now is a good opportunity for U.S. stocks to \"buy on dips\". What is the basis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-03 11:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The S&P500 entered correction territory last week as the Federal Reserve'S policy adjustment caused violent market shock, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) believes that this pullback signals a buying opportunity for investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07529cfcbc79b3b7da46d82d5631d26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Wall Street firm said that if history is any reference, a correction rarely turns into a bear market unless the economy enters a recession. \"From a historical perspective, S&P 500 revisions are usually good buying opportunities,\" David Kostin, head of U.S. equity strategy at Goldman Sachs, said in a note. \"If the economy is not entering a recession, a market correction is usually a good buying opportunity.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve said last week it would raise interest rates soon, the first time in more than three years, as part of a sweeping tightening of historically accommodative monetary policy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said Powell was the toughest since he became chairman. Powell reiterated that the current tightening cycle is different from the previous one, with a strong labor market, a strong economy and above-target inflation.</p><p>Feroli believes: \"Although Powell has not yet made a clear statement, he made it clear that continuous rate hike in consecutive meetings is a possibility, and this is also a risk we have been paying attention to.\"</p><p>\"The Fed is now chasing inflation and in a panic,\" said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, who was more hawkish in his comments than the initial statement. It affirms the Fed's stance.</p><p>The shift has triggered a significant increase in volatility on Wall Street recently, with investors struggling to reprice assets based on interest rate risk. The S&P 500 index fell about 7% in January, down 8% from its record high at the beginning of the month; It was also the worst month since March 2020.</p><p>Tech stocks led the decline in the new year as investors dumped high and sometimes unprofitable stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 12% in January and is down 15% from its all-time high. Still, Goldman notes that a 10% adjustment is not unusual in a given calendar year.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs, since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a median peak-to-trough decline of 13% in a calendar year, with corrections of more than 10% in 62% of years. Goldman Sachs said that since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen 33 pullbacks of 10% or more, with the midpoint lasting about five months, with a decline of 18% from high to trough.</p><p>If investors bought the S&P 500 10% below its high, regardless of whether it was the rock bottom at that time, the average investor return was 15% over the subsequent 12 months, the company said. Goldman Sachs said that in 21 non-recession adjustments, the S&P 500 usually falls 15%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>About halfway through earnings season, the number of companies with sales and profits beating Wall Street expectations is higher than average, albeit lower than levels seen early in the recovery, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank.</p><p>However, Maneesh Deshpande, managing director of Barclays Capital, said that corporate performance has been good, but the considerations include not only the Fed's changes in monetary policy, but also the Fed's rate hike in a seemingly weak economy. \"Both of those things are a problem now,\" he said. \"This time, the earnings may not save the day.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208360102","content_text":"标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上周一度进入回调区间，因美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策调整造成市场剧烈震荡，但高盛(Goldman Sachs)认为，此次回落标志着投资者有买入机会。这家华尔街公司说，如果历史可以作为参考的话，修正很少会变成熊市，除非经济进入衰退。“从历史角度看，标普500指数修正通常是良好的买入机会，”高盛美国股市策略主管David Kostin在报告中称。“如果经济没有进入衰退，市场调整通常是好的买入机会。”美联储上周表示，将很快提高利率，这是三年多来的首次，是历来宽松的货币政策全面收紧的一部分。摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示，鲍威尔是担任主席以来最强硬的一次。鲍威尔重申，当前的紧缩周期与上一个周期不同，劳动力市场强劲，经济强劲，通胀高于目标。Feroli认为：“虽然鲍威尔仍未明确表态，但他明确表示，在连续的会议上不断加息是一种可能，这也是我们一直在关注的风险。”均富(Grant Thornton)首席经济学家黛安斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示：“美联储现在正在追逐通胀，陷入了恐慌。”他的评论比最初的声明更加强硬。它肯定了美联储的立场。这一转变引发了华尔街最近波动显著增加，投资者艰难地根据利率风险对资产进行重新定价。标准普尔500指数1月下跌了约7%，较当月初的纪录高点下跌了8%；这也是自2020年3月以来最糟糕的一个月。在新的一年里，科技股领跌，投资者纷纷抛售高企、有时无利可图的股票。纳斯达克综合指数1月份下跌了约12%，较历史高点下跌了15%。不过，高盛指出，在一个给定的日历年里，10%的调整并不罕见。据高盛的数据，自1928年以来，标准普尔500指数经历了一个日历年中值13%的从高峰到低谷的下跌，62%的年份中有超过10%的修正。高盛说，自1950年以来，标普500指数已经出现了33次10%或以上的回调，中间值持续了约五个月，其中从高点到谷底的跌幅为18%。该公司表示，如果投资者在比高点低10%的水平买入标准普尔500指数，无论当时是否是谷底，那么在随后的12个月里，投资者的平均回报率为15%。高盛说，在21次非衰退调整中，标普500指数通常下跌15%。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的一项分析显示，在财报季约过半之际，销售和利润超过华尔街预期的公司数量高于平均水平，尽管低于复苏初期的水平。不过巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)董事总经理Maneesh Deshpande表示，企业业绩一直不错，但考虑因素不仅包括美联储改变货币政策，还包括美联储在看似疲弱的经济中加息。“这两件事现在都是个问题，”他说。“这一次，收益可能无法挽救局面。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937627260,"gmtCreate":1663426920450,"gmtModify":1676537269149,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937627260","repostId":"1129633132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129633132","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663378125,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129633132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129633132","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.</li><li>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.</li><li>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.</li><li>How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?</li><li>Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f531f7b392a181968ec72c4a8f89f8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>The Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by &#34;mining&#34;. The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new &#34;proof-of-stake&#34; approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.</p><p><b>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming &#34;mining&#34;</b></p><p>The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872c823bfeb3e06182d2d3f6ab87879\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Ethereum.org</span></p><p>Mining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.</p><p>In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.</p><p>Some miners may go to work on a &#34;hard fork&#34; of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it&#39;s unclear whether mining this will be profitable.</p><p>Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.</p><p><b>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales</b></p><p>Following Nvidia&#39;s revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.</p><p>The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.</p><p>However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe36f2d53f47c0d7e5cdf964d09c67fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BinInfoCharts</span></p><p>This implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.</p><p>This turned out to account very well for Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia&#39;s Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8223bcd7d3f44c30f5c60970c616fe0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>Note that the revenue impact doesn&#39;t only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia&#39;s fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.</p><p><b>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia&#39;s sales will be, at best, ugly</b></p><p>The model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it&#39;s not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.</p><p>If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia&#39;s RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00465fed542c67659f55786fcdf366b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>The model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.</p><p>This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn&#39;t absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.</p><p>As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren&#39;t comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0a909d1edae7870adea14e3f987d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>So the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won&#39;t fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia&#39;s crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum&#39;s mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.</p><p><b>How will the Merge affect Nvidia&#39;s expected RTX 40 series launch?</b></p><p>Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5990337b62c49447e21da39a199e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia</span></p><p>Various tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.</p><p>The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It&#39;s not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.</p><p>Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.</p><p>Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.</p><p>Unfortunately, I don&#39;t have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD&#39;s next-generation GPUs have only been &#34;teased&#34; but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.</p><p>The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.</p><p>Since<i>none</i>of the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.</p><p>Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.</p><p>Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.</p><p><b>Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</b></p><p>Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?</p><p>When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.</p><p>If Nvidia really wasn&#39;t accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.</p><p>In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I&#39;m assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.</p><p>Despite this, I&#39;m still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia&#39;s next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.</p><p>Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia&#39;s ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8026f845d3af92219bdc2bb1bc67be19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>According to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia&#39;s future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.</p><p>Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I&#39;m pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I&#39;m waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia&#39;s price even lower.</p><p>Also, I&#39;m waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 09:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129633132","content_text":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by \"mining\". The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new \"proof-of-stake\" approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming \"mining\"The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:Ethereum.orgMining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.Some miners may go to work on a \"hard fork\" of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it's unclear whether mining this will be profitable.Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card salesFollowing Nvidia's revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:BinInfoChartsThis implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.This turned out to account very well for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia's Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:Mark HibbenNote that the revenue impact doesn't only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia's sales will be, at best, uglyThe model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it's not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia's RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:Mark HibbenThe model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn't absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren't comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:Mark HibbenSo the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won't fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia's crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum's mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.How will the Merge affect Nvidia's expected RTX 40 series launch?Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:NvidiaVarious tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It's not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.Unfortunately, I don't have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD's next-generation GPUs have only been \"teased\" but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.Sincenoneof the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.If Nvidia really wasn't accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I'm assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.Despite this, I'm still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia's next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia's ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:Mark HibbenAccording to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia's future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I'm pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I'm waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia's price even lower.Also, I'm waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019158814,"gmtCreate":1648563118186,"gmtModify":1676534354558,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019158814","repostId":"2222916938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2222916938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648509590,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2222916938?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-29 07:19","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Record repurchase scale! Can U.S. stocks usher in a bull market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2222916938","media":"市场资讯","summary":"　　在全球股市下跌的大背景下，回购股票对于上市公司来说似乎是更加明智的策略。　　据英国《金融时报》报道，高盛的统计数据显示，今年迄今为止，美国公司股票回购规模已经达到创纪录的3190亿美元，而2021年同期的规模为2670亿美元。　　高盛分析师近期将2022年的股票回购预期规模上调至创纪录的1万亿美元，比去年增长了12%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Against the backdrop of global stock market declines, share buybacks seem to be a more sensible strategy for public companies.</p><p>According to the Financial Times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Statistics show that so far this year, the scale of stock repurchases by U.S. companies has reached a record $319 billion, compared with $267 billion in the same period in 2021.</p><p>Goldman Sachs analysts recently raised their stock repurchase forecast for 2022 to a record $1 trillion, an increase of 12% from last year. Last year, a boom in corporate buybacks drove the S&P 500 up 27%.</p><p><b>Giants are buying back one after another</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the use of cash and other means by listed companies to repurchase a certain amount of outstanding shares of the company from the stock market. After the stock repurchase is completed, the listed company can cancel the repurchased stocks, increase the earnings per share by reducing the number of outstanding stocks, and then push up the stock price.</p><p>Michael Voris, head of structured equities at Goldman Sachs, said: \"The breadth of stock purchases by different industry groups has reached the highest level in several years, and trading volume has increased. This is largely due to the market backdrop, not other factors.\"</p><p>The average Russell 3000 stock price has fallen more than 30% this year, according to the Financial Times, allowing companies that believe their shares are undervalued to buy more shares at the same price. Earnings growth is also expected to moderate as groups navigate heightened inflation and supply chain issues, which will increase the appeal of buybacks as a way to smooth out earnings.</p><p>In addition, high-profit energy companies have also begun to accelerate share buybacks.</p><p>According to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, share buybacks in the energy sector almost tripled year-over-year last year, outpacing the 70% year-over-year increase of the S&P 500 as a whole.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>After interrupting share repurchases for five years, it also announced a $10 billion repurchase plan in October last year. Since the beginning of this year, ExxonMobil's stock price has risen more than 30%.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks have also recently joined the repurchase army. Alibaba announced a stock repurchase last week. The repurchase scale increased from US $15 billion to US $25 billion. The repurchase scale is equivalent to nearly one-tenth of the market value, setting a record for Chinese concept stocks. Stock repurchase record.</p><p><b>What is the market still worried about</b></p><p>At present, the U.S. stock market has rebounded for the second consecutive week. The S&P 500 index has risen by more than 8.1% in the past two weeks, the largest two-week increase since the end of 2020.</p><p>Although U.S. corporate buybacks can boost stock prices in the short term, concerns about the economic outlook have increased recently as the U.S. bond yield curve continues to flatten, and the potential impact of tightening monetary policy on liquidity may become a weight on U.S. stocks. Significant risks to the upward space.</p><p>On March 25, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to nearly 2.5%, up a full percentage point since early December. At the same time, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which tracks short-term interest rate expectations, also soared quickly to 2.3%, both at their highest levels since May 2019.</p><p>The market is currently focused on whether the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yield curves will be inverted. From historical experience, in the past 50 years, before the economic recession, the U.S. yield curve has been inverted, and only one of them was a false positive. When the yield of short-term bonds rises above the longer-term Treasury Bond, it indicates that the cost of short-term borrowing is higher than that of longer-term borrowing. In this case, companies often find that operating costs are rising and tend to slow down or even shelve investments. Consumer borrowing costs have also risen, so consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, will slow down. The economy eventually contracted and the unemployment rate climbed.</p><p>Analysts at Mizuho International warn that risky assets will ultimately be unable to withstand the huge impact of rising discount rates, and economic growth will also be unable to withstand it. That is, as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten policy in big strides, stocks seem to have to make some concessions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. stock analyst Michael Wilson said the recent rebound in U.S. stocks is a good opportunity to sell and build positions in a more defensive manner. He upgraded his rating on utility stocks in the traditional safe-haven sector to \"overweight\". \"This is just a bear market rally. Although this may not be completely over, it is a rally worth selling. Investors should take advantage of the opportunity to adjust their positions, because the U.S. economy is in the late-cycle expansion stage\".</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Record repurchase scale! Can U.S. stocks usher in a bull market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRecord repurchase scale! Can U.S. stocks usher in a bull market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-29 07:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Against the backdrop of global stock market declines, share buybacks seem to be a more sensible strategy for public companies.</p><p>According to the Financial Times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Statistics show that so far this year, the scale of stock repurchases by U.S. companies has reached a record $319 billion, compared with $267 billion in the same period in 2021.</p><p>Goldman Sachs analysts recently raised their stock repurchase forecast for 2022 to a record $1 trillion, an increase of 12% from last year. Last year, a boom in corporate buybacks drove the S&P 500 up 27%.</p><p><b>Giants are buying back one after another</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the use of cash and other means by listed companies to repurchase a certain amount of outstanding shares of the company from the stock market. After the stock repurchase is completed, the listed company can cancel the repurchased stocks, increase the earnings per share by reducing the number of outstanding stocks, and then push up the stock price.</p><p>Michael Voris, head of structured equities at Goldman Sachs, said: \"The breadth of stock purchases by different industry groups has reached the highest level in several years, and trading volume has increased. This is largely due to the market backdrop, not other factors.\"</p><p>The average Russell 3000 stock price has fallen more than 30% this year, according to the Financial Times, allowing companies that believe their shares are undervalued to buy more shares at the same price. Earnings growth is also expected to moderate as groups navigate heightened inflation and supply chain issues, which will increase the appeal of buybacks as a way to smooth out earnings.</p><p>In addition, high-profit energy companies have also begun to accelerate share buybacks.</p><p>According to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, share buybacks in the energy sector almost tripled year-over-year last year, outpacing the 70% year-over-year increase of the S&P 500 as a whole.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>After interrupting share repurchases for five years, it also announced a $10 billion repurchase plan in October last year. Since the beginning of this year, ExxonMobil's stock price has risen more than 30%.</p><p>Chinese concept stocks have also recently joined the repurchase army. Alibaba announced a stock repurchase last week. The repurchase scale increased from US $15 billion to US $25 billion. The repurchase scale is equivalent to nearly one-tenth of the market value, setting a record for Chinese concept stocks. Stock repurchase record.</p><p><b>What is the market still worried about</b></p><p>At present, the U.S. stock market has rebounded for the second consecutive week. The S&P 500 index has risen by more than 8.1% in the past two weeks, the largest two-week increase since the end of 2020.</p><p>Although U.S. corporate buybacks can boost stock prices in the short term, concerns about the economic outlook have increased recently as the U.S. bond yield curve continues to flatten, and the potential impact of tightening monetary policy on liquidity may become a weight on U.S. stocks. Significant risks to the upward space.</p><p>On March 25, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to nearly 2.5%, up a full percentage point since early December. At the same time, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which tracks short-term interest rate expectations, also soared quickly to 2.3%, both at their highest levels since May 2019.</p><p>The market is currently focused on whether the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yield curves will be inverted. From historical experience, in the past 50 years, before the economic recession, the U.S. yield curve has been inverted, and only one of them was a false positive. When the yield of short-term bonds rises above the longer-term Treasury Bond, it indicates that the cost of short-term borrowing is higher than that of longer-term borrowing. In this case, companies often find that operating costs are rising and tend to slow down or even shelve investments. Consumer borrowing costs have also risen, so consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, will slow down. The economy eventually contracted and the unemployment rate climbed.</p><p>Analysts at Mizuho International warn that risky assets will ultimately be unable to withstand the huge impact of rising discount rates, and economic growth will also be unable to withstand it. That is, as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten policy in big strides, stocks seem to have to make some concessions.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. stock analyst Michael Wilson said the recent rebound in U.S. stocks is a good opportunity to sell and build positions in a more defensive manner. He upgraded his rating on utility stocks in the traditional safe-haven sector to \"overweight\". \"This is just a bear market rally. Although this may not be completely over, it is a rally worth selling. Investors should take advantage of the opportunity to adjust their positions, because the U.S. economy is in the late-cycle expansion stage\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-03-28/doc-imcwiwss8642471.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","OEX":"标普100","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4516":"特朗普概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","XOM":"埃克森美孚","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","GS":"高盛","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-03-28/doc-imcwiwss8642471.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2222916938","content_text":"在全球股市下跌的大背景下，回购股票对于上市公司来说似乎是更加明智的策略。据英国《金融时报》报道，高盛的统计数据显示，今年迄今为止，美国公司股票回购规模已经达到创纪录的3190亿美元，而2021年同期的规模为2670亿美元。高盛分析师近期将2022年的股票回购预期规模上调至创纪录的1万亿美元，比去年增长了12%。去年，企业回购热潮推动标普500指数上涨了27%。　巨头纷纷出手回购股票回购，是指上市公司利用现金等方式，从股票市场上购回本公司发行在外的一定数额的股票。在股票回购完成后，上市公司可以将所回购的股票注销，通过减少发行在外的股票数量，拉高每股盈利，进而推动股价上涨。高盛结构性股票业务主管Michael Voris表示：“不同行业集团购买股票的广度达到了几年来的最高水平，而且成交量有所增加。这在很大程度上是由于市场背景，而非其他因素。”据《金融时报》报道，罗素3000指数的平均股价今年已下跌逾30%，这使得那些认为自己的股票被低估的公司可以以同样的价格买入更多股票。随着各集团应对通胀加剧和供应链问题，收益增长预计也将放缓，这将增加回购作为一种平滑收益方式的吸引力。除此之外，收益颇丰的能源公司也开始加速股票回购。根据标普道琼斯指数的数据，去年能源行业的股票回购量同比几乎增长了三倍，超过了标普500指数整体70%的同比涨幅。埃克森美孚在中断股票回购五年后，也于去年10月宣布了规模100亿美元的回购计划。今年以来，埃克森美孚的股价已上涨超30%。中概股近期也加入了回购大军，阿里巴巴上周宣布进行股票回购，回购规模从150亿美元增至250亿美元，回购规模相当于近十分之一的市值，创下中概股回购纪录。市场还在担忧什么眼下美国股市已经连续第二周反弹，标普500指数过去两周的涨幅超8.1%，是2020年底以来最大两周涨幅。虽然美国公司回购能在短期内提振股价，但是近期随着美债收益率曲线不断趋平，有关经济前景的担忧有所上升，而货币政策收紧对流动性的潜在冲击可能成为打压美股向上空间的重大风险。3月25日，10年期美债收益率飙升至近2.5%，自12月初以来上涨了整整一个百分点。与此同时，追踪短期利率预期的2年期美债收益率也迅速飙升至2.3%，两者均为2019年5月以来的最高水平。目前市场关注2年期和10年期美债收益率曲线是否会走向倒挂。从历史经验看，过去50年每逢经济衰退前，美国收益率曲线都会出现倒挂，其间只有一次是误报。当短债收益率攀升超过较长期国债，即预示短期借款成本要高于较长期借款。在这种情况下，企业经常会发现运营成本升高，便倾向于放慢甚至是搁置投资。消费者借款成本亦攀升，由此占美国经济活动2/3以上的消费支出便会放缓。经济最终陷入萎缩，失业率攀升。瑞穗国际的分析师警告称，风险资产最终将无法抵御贴现率上升的巨大影响，经济增长也同样无法抵御。即随着美联储开始大步收紧政策，股市似乎不得不做出一些让步。摩根士丹利首席美股分析师Michael Wilson称，美国股市最近的反弹是一个卖出并以更防御性的方式建仓的好机会。他将传统避险板块公用事业类股的评级调高至“增持”。“这不过是一轮熊市反弹。尽管这可能还没有完全结束，但这是一次值得抛售的反弹。投资者应利用机会调整持仓，因美国经济正处于周期后期扩张阶段”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"QID":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"SQQQ":0.6,"TTTN":0.72,"GS":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.72,"MNQmain":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"OEF":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QNETCN":0.72,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"XOM":0.64,".IXIC":0.62,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035751472,"gmtCreate":1647699724057,"gmtModify":1676534259279,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035751472","repostId":"2220670637","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220670637","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647671973,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220670637?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-19 14:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Bank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of Great Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220670637","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett认为，美股反弹不过是熊市的“暂时停火”，“衰退冲击”即将开始。如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦？1970s大通胀时代下的资产轮动或许能够提供借鉴。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Last week, the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed, but U.S. stocks rebounded sharply.</p><p>In this regard, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, known as the \"most pessimistic analyst on Wall Street\", believes that,<b>This rally is nothing more than a \"temporary ceasefire\" in the bear market, and the \"recession shock\" is about to begin.</b></p><p>Hartnett explained that the historic short squeeze largely contributed to the widespread melting of the market:</p><p>This is nothing more than a \"bear market ceasefire rally\" as the world continues to sink into the purgatory of stagflation,<b>The real bear market won't start until the recession begins, sometime in the second half of 2022.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada7b4acd0ad022755f738923474559d\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Hartnett believes that the long-term lows of interest rates in the 2020s superimposed on inflation mean a rapid and volatile boom-to-bust economic and investment cycle.</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, Hartnett review looked at asset rotation in the era of great inflation in the 1970s.</p><p><b>At the beginning of this period, the market was initially bullish on real assets, commodities, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities(TIPS) (TIPS), small-cap value stocks, and emerging markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>However, just a few years later, during the great stagflation shock of 1973/4, only commodities remained strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6139b3756e493bf595fa37b38c689e43\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>By 1974-1981, when it was time to buy small-cap value stocks and real estate, commodities were still doing well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6e7a32e544d5a658a3345fde0645e8\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>What happens next? It will depend on whether the Fed has the courage to raise interest rates to 20% in the short term, as Volcker did in 1981, even if it means the collapse of risky assets.</p><p>Hartnett also gave suggestions on how to hedge against the pain that the market may face next:</p><p>The best recession hedge is betting on a'steepening yield curve 'The best stagflation hedge is betting on a falling dollar The best soft landing hedge is betting on non-U.S. stocks<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca5a47a33d55a24968d3f1db0ba015a\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of Great Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of America review 1970s: Asset Rotation in the Era of Great Inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-19 14:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Last week, the Federal Reserve's rate hike landed, but U.S. stocks rebounded sharply.</p><p>In this regard, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, known as the \"most pessimistic analyst on Wall Street\", believes that,<b>This rally is nothing more than a \"temporary ceasefire\" in the bear market, and the \"recession shock\" is about to begin.</b></p><p>Hartnett explained that the historic short squeeze largely contributed to the widespread melting of the market:</p><p>This is nothing more than a \"bear market ceasefire rally\" as the world continues to sink into the purgatory of stagflation,<b>The real bear market won't start until the recession begins, sometime in the second half of 2022.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada7b4acd0ad022755f738923474559d\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Hartnett believes that the long-term lows of interest rates in the 2020s superimposed on inflation mean a rapid and volatile boom-to-bust economic and investment cycle.</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, Hartnett review looked at asset rotation in the era of great inflation in the 1970s.</p><p><b>At the beginning of this period, the market was initially bullish on real assets, commodities, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities(TIPS) (TIPS), small-cap value stocks, and emerging markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>However, just a few years later, during the great stagflation shock of 1973/4, only commodities remained strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6139b3756e493bf595fa37b38c689e43\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>By 1974-1981, when it was time to buy small-cap value stocks and real estate, commodities were still doing well.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6e7a32e544d5a658a3345fde0645e8\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>What happens next? It will depend on whether the Fed has the courage to raise interest rates to 20% in the short term, as Volcker did in 1981, even if it means the collapse of risky assets.</p><p>Hartnett also gave suggestions on how to hedge against the pain that the market may face next:</p><p>The best recession hedge is betting on a'steepening yield curve 'The best stagflation hedge is betting on a falling dollar The best soft landing hedge is betting on non-U.S. stocks<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca5a47a33d55a24968d3f1db0ba015a\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654678\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f896a6b33444499dac0f961f7d31ccb9","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","TIPS":"Tianrong Internet Products and Services, Inc.","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654678","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220670637","content_text":"上周，美联储加息落地，美股却大幅反弹。对此，有“华尔街最悲观分析师”之称的美银策略师Michael Hartnett认为，这场反弹不过是熊市的“暂时停火”，“衰退冲击”即将开始。Hartnett解释道，历史性的逼空在很大程度上促成了市场的大范围融涨：这不过是一场“熊市停火反弹”（\"bear market ceasefire rally\" ），因为世界继续陷入滞胀的炼狱，真正的熊市要到衰退开始时才会开始，时间是2022年下半年的某个时候。Hartnett认为，2020年代利率的长期低点叠加着通胀，意味着快速且不稳定的从繁荣到萧条的经济和投资周期。以史为鉴，Hartnett复盘了上世纪七十年代大通胀时代下的资产轮动。在这个时期的初期，市场最初是看涨实物资产、大宗商品、通货膨胀保值债券(TIPS)、小盘价值股和新兴市场。然而，短短几年之后，在1973/4年的大滞胀冲击中，只有大宗商品持续坚挺。到1974年至1981年，就到了买进小盘价值股、房地产的时候，此时大宗商品依然表现不错。接下来会发生什么？这将取决于美联储是否有勇气像1981年沃尔克那样，在短期内将利率提高到20%，即使这也意味着风险资产的崩溃。对于如何对冲接下来市场可能面临的痛苦，Hartnett也给出了建议：最好的衰退对冲是押注“收益率曲线变陡”最好的滞胀对冲是押注美元贬值最好的软着陆对冲是押注非美国股票","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":0.85,"QID":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TIPS":1,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033682954,"gmtCreate":1646267091337,"gmtModify":1676534110039,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033682954","repostId":"1102002059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102002059","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646264963,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102002059?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102002059","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"俄乌即将举行第二轮会谈。随着鲍威尔几乎消除3月货币政策不确定性，美国三大指数集体走高，截至发布会结束标普和道指涨幅均达到2%。官员们表示，由于通胀压力居高不下，他们料将进一步提高借贷成本，但不会减持国债。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 1% overnight; ② Energy stocks and large technology stocks rose collectively; ③ European natural gas hit a record high in intraday trading, once soaring by 60%; ④ Key points of Powell's overnight testimony: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March. Overseas Market</p><p>1. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose by more than 1%! Energy Tech Stocks Higher</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he supported a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, dispelling market concerns about the Fed's aggressive rate hike. The Federal Reserve Beige Book reported that U.S. economic activity expanded at a moderate to moderate pace. Russia and Ukraine are about to hold the second round of talks. As of the close, Nathan rose 1.62%, the Dow rose 1.79%, and the S&P rose 1.86%.</p><p>Energy stocks rose collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up more than 3%. Tech stocks are higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Rose more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Up more than 8%</p><p>2. Popular gains and losses are mixed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell nearly 11%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 1.41%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Down 1.96%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 2.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 3.33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 4.34%, Keike fell 10.96%, and Weibo rose 2.01%.</p><p>China Tourism, Macau Gaming and other sectors rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">Sands Group</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Resorts Entertainment</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>Up more than 8%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed up across the board<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>Index rose 1.37%</p><p>European stocks generally rose, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.73%, France's CAC40 index rose 1.59%, and the UK<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It rose 1.37%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose 1.43%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil exceeded $110, hitting the highest closing price since May 2011</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices recorded a third straight session of gains on Wednesday and hit their highest close in more than a decade. The progress situation between Russia and Ukraine has not yet seen signs of easing, causing the market to worry that global crude oil supply may be disrupted.</p><p>Finally, WTI for April delivery rose $7.19, or nearly 7%, to settle at $110.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday. This is the highest closing price for a front-month contract since May 2011, according to FactSet agency data.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed down 1.1% and silver fell 1.4%</p><p>The news that Russia and Ukraine are preparing to resume negotiations temporarily reduced the demand for safe havens. According to CME's Fed Watch tool, the market now expects the Fed to almost certainly have a 25 basis point rate hike, with a 3.7% chance of a 50 basis point gain.</p><p>In the end, the price of gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $21.50, or 1.1%, to close at $1,922.30 an ounce. May silver futures fell 35 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $25.19 an ounce.</p><p>6. Going out of winter does not mean that the energy crisis is over: European natural gas hit a record high and once soared by 60%</p><p>On Wednesday (March 2) local time, European natural gas prices broke through record highs during the session, and traders were worried that the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might lead to disruptions in natural gas supplies. The Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures price once jumped to 194 euros (about 215 US dollars) per megawatt hour, an increase of 60% from Tuesday's closing price and twice last Friday's closing price.</p><p>Alex Froley, a market analyst at ICIS in the UK, said that the natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe is proceeding normally, but many uncertainties worry traders and investors.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Read the key points of Powell's overnight testimony in one article: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March</p><p>On March 2, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the House Financial Services Committee to provide testimony for the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report and accept questions from members. As Powell almost eliminated the uncertainty of monetary policy in March, the three major U.S. indexes collectively rose. As of the end of the press conference, the S&P and Dow both rose by 2%.</p><p>Powell said that he still supports the 25 basis point rate hike plan in March, and expects to make progress on the issue of shrinking the balance sheet, but will not finalize the matter. At the same time, Powell also emphasized that the current Fed's expectation is that inflation will peak and fall this year. If inflation continues to be higher than this target, the Fed is also ready to rate hike in a more aggressive manner in one or more future meetings.</p><p>2. The White House announces details of the latest sanctions against Russia and Belarus</p><p>On March 2, local time, the White House announced the details of a series of latest economic sanctions against Russia and Belarus, including the implementation of export control policies on Belarus to prevent technological software and technology from flowing into Russia through Belarus. The White House said the move would \"severely limit the ability of Russia and Belarus to obtain the materials needed (for military operations against Ukraine).\"</p><p>3. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine calling for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine</p><p>The emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine jointly submitted by more than 90 countries including Ukraine. In addition to requiring Russia to \"immediately, completely and unconditionally\" withdraw its troops from Ukraine, this resolution also adds relevant provisions against Belarus. As the resolution of the United Nations General Assembly is not legally binding on Member States except for some projects involving the operation of the United Nations itself, the implementation of this resolution remains to be seen.</p><p>4. ADP data shows that U.S. companies added more jobs than expected in February</p><p>U.S. ADP employment increased by 475,000 in February, compared with an estimate of an increase of 388,000, and a decrease of 301,000 in the previous value.</p><p>5. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Inflation is fiercer than a tiger, and the economy expanded moderately from January to February</p><p>Federal Reserve State of the Economy Beige Book noted that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate to moderate pace since mid-January. Businesses report that prices are expected to rise in the coming months, with rising costs and hiring difficulties persisting.</p><p>6. The Bank of Canada issued rate hike as scheduled and hinted that it would continue to raise interest rates. shrinking balance sheet has not yet been launched</p><p>Faced with inflation at a 30-year high, the Bank of Canada announced a rate hike of 25 basis points and hinted that it would raise interest rates further.</p><p>Central Bank Governor Tiff Macklem and other officials decided to raise the overnight benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, largely in line with market expectations. Officials said they expected to further raise borrowing costs as inflationary pressures remained high, but would not reduce their holdings of Treasury Bond.</p><p>This is the first Canadian rate hike since 2018, and some expect it to be one of the fastest-paced rate hike cycles since the bank began implementing inflation targeting three years ago. The market is betting that the policy rate will hit a maximum of 1% by June and is expected to reach 1.75% by this time next year.</p><p>7. OPEC + agrees to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in April</p><p>OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in April according to the existing plan, and the next OPEC meeting will be held on March 31.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Information Agency: U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week</p><p>The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 2.597 million barrels in the week of February 25 and are expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.514 million barrels in the previous week. In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week.</p><p>9. The United States implements technology export controls on the Russian oil refining industry</p><p>The White House said that the United States will impose export controls on Russia's oil refining industry, which is an important source of revenue to support the Russian military. By imposing export controls on oil and gas extraction equipment, the U.S. Department of Commerce will impose restrictions on the export of technology that will support Russia's refining capacity in the long run.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216170339\" target=\"_blank\">Apple will hold a new product launch conference on March 9. Is the new iPhone SE coming?</a></p><p>In the early morning of March 3, Beijing time, Apple issued an invitation letter, officially announcing that it will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>A new product launch conference was held at 10 a.m. on March 8th and 2 a.m. on March 9th, Beijing time. The theme of this launch conference was Peek performance, and the Chinese theme was high-energy delivery.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216796531\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla increases investment in Australian lithium mines, supplying 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate in the next four years</a></p><p>Australian lithium miner Core Lithium announced on Wednesday that it has reached a supply agreement with Tesla to supply Tesla with up to 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate within four years.</p><p>Core Lithium said the supply program to Tesla is expected to begin in the second half of 2023. Currently, automakers around the world are racing to secure the supply of parts used to make electric vehicles.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216750411\" target=\"_blank\">Ford will operate electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses separately to maximize profits from electric vehicle business</a></p><p>According to Reuters, three people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>A restructuring plan will be announced on Wednesday, under which its electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses will be operated separately, a move aimed at maximizing profits in the electric vehicle business and growing at a faster pace. Ford will appoint executives to lead each business, which will have separate names, and Ford will also outline updated margin targets for the company as a whole. Ford's idea is to eventually report the results of its electric vehicle and diesel locomotive businesses separately, one source said.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216812209\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix announces € 65 m acquisition of Finnish game developer Next Games</a></p><p>According to news on March 2, Netflix announced that it has reached a merger agreement to acquire Finnish game developer Next Games. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2022. Under the agreement, Netflix is close to launching a takeover offer to acquire all of Next Games' issued and outstanding shares.</p><p>Under the offer, Next Games shareholders will receive € 2. 10 per share of Next Games in cash for a total value of approximately € 65 million. The board of directors of Next Games unanimously decided to recommend that shareholders accept the tender offer.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216105870\" target=\"_blank\">Snowflake's revenue growth slows, falls more than 22% after hours</a></p><p>Snowflake's total revenue in the fourth quarter was US $383.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 101%; The net loss was US $132.2 million, narrowing from the net loss of US $198.9 million in the same period last year, and Snowflake plunged 22% after hours.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. oil reached a new high in the past ten years! Apple welcomes spring conference\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-03 07:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose by more than 1% overnight; ② Energy stocks and large technology stocks rose collectively; ③ European natural gas hit a record high in intraday trading, once soaring by 60%; ④ Key points of Powell's overnight testimony: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March. Overseas Market</p><p>1. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose by more than 1%! Energy Tech Stocks Higher</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he supported a 25 basis point rate hike at the March meeting, dispelling market concerns about the Fed's aggressive rate hike. The Federal Reserve Beige Book reported that U.S. economic activity expanded at a moderate to moderate pace. Russia and Ukraine are about to hold the second round of talks. As of the close, Nathan rose 1.62%, the Dow rose 1.79%, and the S&P rose 1.86%.</p><p>Energy stocks rose collectively,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SLB\">Schlumberger</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up more than 3%. Tech stocks are higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Rose more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Up more than 8%</p><p>2. Popular gains and losses are mixed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell nearly 11%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 1.41%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 1.56%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Down 1.96%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 2.06%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 3.33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It fell 4.34%, Keike fell 10.96%, and Weibo rose 2.01%.</p><p>China Tourism, Macau Gaming and other sectors rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">Sands Group</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Resorts Entertainment</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>Up more than 8%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed up across the board<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>Index rose 1.37%</p><p>European stocks generally rose, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.73%, France's CAC40 index rose 1.59%, and the UK<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100 Index</a>It rose 1.37%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose 1.43%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil exceeded $110, hitting the highest closing price since May 2011</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices recorded a third straight session of gains on Wednesday and hit their highest close in more than a decade. The progress situation between Russia and Ukraine has not yet seen signs of easing, causing the market to worry that global crude oil supply may be disrupted.</p><p>Finally, WTI for April delivery rose $7.19, or nearly 7%, to settle at $110.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday. This is the highest closing price for a front-month contract since May 2011, according to FactSet agency data.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed down 1.1% and silver fell 1.4%</p><p>The news that Russia and Ukraine are preparing to resume negotiations temporarily reduced the demand for safe havens. According to CME's Fed Watch tool, the market now expects the Fed to almost certainly have a 25 basis point rate hike, with a 3.7% chance of a 50 basis point gain.</p><p>In the end, the price of gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $21.50, or 1.1%, to close at $1,922.30 an ounce. May silver futures fell 35 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $25.19 an ounce.</p><p>6. Going out of winter does not mean that the energy crisis is over: European natural gas hit a record high and once soared by 60%</p><p>On Wednesday (March 2) local time, European natural gas prices broke through record highs during the session, and traders were worried that the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might lead to disruptions in natural gas supplies. The Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures price once jumped to 194 euros (about 215 US dollars) per megawatt hour, an increase of 60% from Tuesday's closing price and twice last Friday's closing price.</p><p>Alex Froley, a market analyst at ICIS in the UK, said that the natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe is proceeding normally, but many uncertainties worry traders and investors.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. Read the key points of Powell's overnight testimony in one article: 25 basis points inclined to rate hike in March</p><p>On March 2, local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended the House Financial Services Committee to provide testimony for the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report and accept questions from members. As Powell almost eliminated the uncertainty of monetary policy in March, the three major U.S. indexes collectively rose. As of the end of the press conference, the S&P and Dow both rose by 2%.</p><p>Powell said that he still supports the 25 basis point rate hike plan in March, and expects to make progress on the issue of shrinking the balance sheet, but will not finalize the matter. At the same time, Powell also emphasized that the current Fed's expectation is that inflation will peak and fall this year. If inflation continues to be higher than this target, the Fed is also ready to rate hike in a more aggressive manner in one or more future meetings.</p><p>2. The White House announces details of the latest sanctions against Russia and Belarus</p><p>On March 2, local time, the White House announced the details of a series of latest economic sanctions against Russia and Belarus, including the implementation of export control policies on Belarus to prevent technological software and technology from flowing into Russia through Belarus. The White House said the move would \"severely limit the ability of Russia and Belarus to obtain the materials needed (for military operations against Ukraine).\"</p><p>3. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine calling for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine</p><p>The emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly adopted a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine jointly submitted by more than 90 countries including Ukraine. In addition to requiring Russia to \"immediately, completely and unconditionally\" withdraw its troops from Ukraine, this resolution also adds relevant provisions against Belarus. As the resolution of the United Nations General Assembly is not legally binding on Member States except for some projects involving the operation of the United Nations itself, the implementation of this resolution remains to be seen.</p><p>4. ADP data shows that U.S. companies added more jobs than expected in February</p><p>U.S. ADP employment increased by 475,000 in February, compared with an estimate of an increase of 388,000, and a decrease of 301,000 in the previous value.</p><p>5. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Inflation is fiercer than a tiger, and the economy expanded moderately from January to February</p><p>Federal Reserve State of the Economy Beige Book noted that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate to moderate pace since mid-January. Businesses report that prices are expected to rise in the coming months, with rising costs and hiring difficulties persisting.</p><p>6. The Bank of Canada issued rate hike as scheduled and hinted that it would continue to raise interest rates. shrinking balance sheet has not yet been launched</p><p>Faced with inflation at a 30-year high, the Bank of Canada announced a rate hike of 25 basis points and hinted that it would raise interest rates further.</p><p>Central Bank Governor Tiff Macklem and other officials decided to raise the overnight benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, largely in line with market expectations. Officials said they expected to further raise borrowing costs as inflationary pressures remained high, but would not reduce their holdings of Treasury Bond.</p><p>This is the first Canadian rate hike since 2018, and some expect it to be one of the fastest-paced rate hike cycles since the bank began implementing inflation targeting three years ago. The market is betting that the policy rate will hit a maximum of 1% by June and is expected to reach 1.75% by this time next year.</p><p>7. OPEC + agrees to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in April</p><p>OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in April according to the existing plan, and the next OPEC meeting will be held on March 31.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Information Agency: U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week</p><p>The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 2.597 million barrels in the week of February 25 and are expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.514 million barrels in the previous week. In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude oil imports from Russia fell to zero last week.</p><p>9. The United States implements technology export controls on the Russian oil refining industry</p><p>The White House said that the United States will impose export controls on Russia's oil refining industry, which is an important source of revenue to support the Russian military. By imposing export controls on oil and gas extraction equipment, the U.S. Department of Commerce will impose restrictions on the export of technology that will support Russia's refining capacity in the long run.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216170339\" target=\"_blank\">Apple will hold a new product launch conference on March 9. Is the new iPhone SE coming?</a></p><p>In the early morning of March 3, Beijing time, Apple issued an invitation letter, officially announcing that it will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>A new product launch conference was held at 10 a.m. on March 8th and 2 a.m. on March 9th, Beijing time. The theme of this launch conference was Peek performance, and the Chinese theme was high-energy delivery.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216796531\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla increases investment in Australian lithium mines, supplying 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate in the next four years</a></p><p>Australian lithium miner Core Lithium announced on Wednesday that it has reached a supply agreement with Tesla to supply Tesla with up to 110,000 tons of spodumene concentrate within four years.</p><p>Core Lithium said the supply program to Tesla is expected to begin in the second half of 2023. Currently, automakers around the world are racing to secure the supply of parts used to make electric vehicles.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216750411\" target=\"_blank\">Ford will operate electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses separately to maximize profits from electric vehicle business</a></p><p>According to Reuters, three people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>A restructuring plan will be announced on Wednesday, under which its electric vehicle and internal combustion engine businesses will be operated separately, a move aimed at maximizing profits in the electric vehicle business and growing at a faster pace. Ford will appoint executives to lead each business, which will have separate names, and Ford will also outline updated margin targets for the company as a whole. Ford's idea is to eventually report the results of its electric vehicle and diesel locomotive businesses separately, one source said.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216812209\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix announces € 65 m acquisition of Finnish game developer Next Games</a></p><p>According to news on March 2, Netflix announced that it has reached a merger agreement to acquire Finnish game developer Next Games. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2022. Under the agreement, Netflix is close to launching a takeover offer to acquire all of Next Games' issued and outstanding shares.</p><p>Under the offer, Next Games shareholders will receive € 2. 10 per share of Next Games in cash for a total value of approximately € 65 million. The board of directors of Next Games unanimously decided to recommend that shareholders accept the tender offer.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2216105870\" target=\"_blank\">Snowflake's revenue growth slows, falls more than 22% after hours</a></p><p>Snowflake's total revenue in the fourth quarter was US $383.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 101%; The net loss was US $132.2 million, narrowing from the net loss of US $198.9 million in the same period last year, and Snowflake plunged 22% after hours.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AAPL":"苹果","BK4566":"资本集团",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102002059","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股三大指数均涨超1%；②能源股、大型科技股集体上涨；③欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高，一度飙升60%；④鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点。海外市场1、美三大股指集体涨超1%！能源科技股走高美股周三大幅收高。美联储主席鲍威尔称支持在3月会议上加息25个基点，打消了市场对美联储激进加息的担忧。联储褐皮书报告称美国经济活动以适度至温和的步伐扩张。俄乌即将举行第二轮会谈。截至收盘，纳涨1.62%，道指涨1.79%，标普涨1.86%。能源股集体上涨，斯伦贝谢涨超4%，西方石油涨超3%。科技股走高，苹果涨超2%，美光科技涨超8%2、热门中概涨跌互现 贝壳跌近11%热门中概股涨跌不一，网易跌1.19%，百度跌1.41%，阿里巴巴跌1.56%，滴滴跌1.96%，京东跌2.06%，哔哩哔哩跌3.33%，拼多多跌4.34%，贝壳跌10.96%，微博涨2.01%。中概旅游、澳门博彩等板块上扬，金沙集团涨超10%，新濠博亚娱乐涨超9%，携程网涨超8%。3、欧股全线收涨 英国富时100指数涨1.37%欧股普涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.73%，法国CAC40指数涨1.59%，英国富时100指数涨1.37%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.43%。4、美国WTI原油突破110美元 创2011年5月以来最高收盘价美国原油期货价格周三录得连续第三个交易日上涨，并创10多年来的最高收盘价。俄乌进展局势尚未看到缓解迹象，令市场担心全球原油供应可能受到干扰。最终，周四纽约商品交易所4月交割的WTI上涨7.19美元，涨幅近7%，收于每桶110.60美元。根据FactSet机构数据，这是自2011年5月以来近月合约的最高收盘价。5、黄金期货收跌1.1% 白银下跌1.4%俄乌准备恢复谈判的消息暂时降低了避险需求。根据CME的美联储观察工具，目前市场预计美联储几乎肯定加息25个基点，上涨50个基点的可能性为3.7%。最终，纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌21.50美元，跌幅为1.1%，收于每盎司1922.30美元。5月白银期货价格下跌35美分，跌幅为1.4%，收于每盎司25.19美元。6、走出冬天不代表能源危机解除：欧洲天然气盘中创历史新高 一度飙升60%当地时间周三（3月2日），欧洲天然气价格盘中突破纪录高位，交易商担心俄乌冲突升级可能导致天然气供应中断。荷兰TTF基准天然气期货价格一度跳涨至每兆瓦时194欧元（约合215美元），较周二收盘价的涨幅达到60%，两倍于上周五的收盘价。英国ICIS的市场分析师Alex Froley表示，从俄罗斯流向欧洲的天然气管道正在正常进行，但很多不确定因素让交易商和投资者担忧。国际宏观1、一文读懂鲍威尔隔夜证词要点：倾向三月加息25基点当地时间3月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会众议院金融服务委员会，为美联储半年度货币政策报告提供证词并接受议员质询。随着鲍威尔几乎消除3月货币政策不确定性，美国三大指数集体走高，截至发布会结束标普和道指涨幅均达到2%。鲍威尔表示，目前仍支持3月加息25个基点的计划，同时预期能够在缩减资产负债表的问题上取得进展，但不会最终敲定这一事项。同时鲍威尔也强调，目前美联储的预期是今年通胀将会见顶并回落，如果通胀持续高于这一目标，美联储也准备好在未来一次或多次会议中以更激进的方式加息。2、白宫公布针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的最新制裁措施细节美国白宫当地时间3月2日公布了一系列针对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯最新经济制裁措施的细节，包括对白俄罗斯实施出口管制政策，以防止科技软件和技术通过白俄罗斯流入俄罗斯。白宫称，此举将“严重限制俄罗斯和白俄罗斯获得（对乌军事行动）所需材料的能力”。3、联合国大会通过乌克兰局势决议草案 要求俄罗斯从乌克兰撤军联合国大会紧急特别会议通过了由乌克兰等超过90国共同提交的乌克兰局势决议草案。此决议除要求俄罗斯“立即、彻底、无条件”从乌克兰撤军外，还加入了针对白俄罗斯的相关条文。由于联合国大会决议除部分涉联合国自身运行项目外，对会员国没有法律约束力，因此该决议执行情况有待观察。4、ADP数据显示美国企业2月份新增就业人数超过预期美国2月ADP就业人数增加47.5万人，预估为增加38.8万人，前值为减少30.1万人。5、美联储褐皮书：通胀猛于虎，1月到2月经济温和扩张美联储经济状况褐皮书指出，自1月中旬以来，经济活动一直在以适度至温和的速度扩张。企业报告称，预计未来几个月物价还会上涨，成本上升和招聘困难持续存在。6、加拿大央行如期加息并暗示会继续提高利率 暂未启动缩表面对处于30年高位的通胀率，加拿大央行宣布加息25基点，并暗示还会进一步提高利率。央行行长Tiff Macklem等官员决定将隔夜基准利率上调至0.5％，基本符合市场预期。官员们表示，由于通胀压力居高不下，他们料将进一步提高借贷成本，但不会减持国债。这是加拿大自2018年以来首次加息，一些人预计这将是该行三年前开始实施通胀目标制以来节奏最快的加息周期之一。市场押注政策利率到6月最高将触及1％，明年此时料达到1.75％。7、欧佩克+同意4月增产40万桶/日欧佩克+同意按照现有计划将4月份石油产量提高40万桶/日，下一次欧佩克会议将在3月31日举行。8、美国能源信息署：上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零美国能源信息署（EIA）最新数据显示，美国2月25日当周EIA原油库存下降259.7万桶，预期会增加250万桶，之前一周增加451.4万桶。此外，美国能源信息署称，上周美国从俄罗斯进口的原油数量降至零。9、美国针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施技术出口管制白宫表示，美国将针对俄罗斯炼油行业实施出口管制，这是支持俄罗斯军方的一个重要收入来源。通过对石油和天然气开采设备实施出口管制，美国商务部将对长期而言支持俄罗斯炼油能力的技术出口施加限制。公司新闻1、苹果将于3月9日召开新品发布会，新款iPhone SE要来了？北京时间3月3日凌晨，苹果公司发布邀请函，官宣将于太平洋时间3月8日上午10点，北京时间3月9日凌晨2点召开新品发布会，此次发布会的主题是「Peek performance」，中文主题「高能传递」。2、特斯拉加码澳洲锂矿，未来四年供应11万吨锂辉石精矿澳锂矿商Core Lithium周三宣布与特斯拉达成供应协议，将在4年内向特斯拉供应高达11万吨的锂辉石精矿。Core Lithium表示，向特斯拉的供应计划预计将于2023年下半年开始。目前，全球汽车制造商都在竞相确保用于制造电动汽车的零部件的供应。3、福特将分开运营电动车和内燃机业务，使电动车业务利润最大化据路透，三位知情人士称，福特汽车周三将宣布一项重组计划，根据该计划，其电动车和内燃机业务将分开运营，此举旨在让电动车业务实现利润最大化，并以更快的速度发展。福特将任命高管来领导每项业务，这些业务将有独立的名称，福特还将概述公司整体的最新利润率目标。一位消息人士称，福特的想法是最终分别报告电动车和内燃机车业务的业绩。4、Netflix宣布6500万欧元收购芬兰游戏开发商Next Games3月2日消息，Netflix宣布已达成收购芬兰游戏开发商 Next Games 的合并协议，该交易预计将于 2022 年第二季度完成。根据协议，Netflix 即将启动收购要约，以收购 Next Games 的所有已发行和流通股。根据要约，Next Games股东将获得每股 Next Games 2.10 欧元的现金，总价值约为 6500 万欧元。Next Games董事会一致决定建议股东接受要约收购。5、Snowflake营收增长放缓，盘后跌逾22%Snowflake第四季度总营收为3.838亿美元，同比增长101%；净亏损为1.322亿美元，与去年同期的净亏损1.989亿美元相比有所收窄，Snowflake盘后暴跌 22%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"USO":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DUG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096122732,"gmtCreate":1644333711005,"gmtModify":1676533913882,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096122732","repostId":"1109828828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093056346,"gmtCreate":1643468112735,"gmtModify":1676533823440,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093056346","repostId":"2207560805","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090082525,"gmtCreate":1643035969953,"gmtModify":1676533767235,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090082525","repostId":"1197782395","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197782395","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643004714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197782395?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-24 14:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Who hit U.S. stocks hard? What do you think of the back?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197782395","media":"静观金融","summary":"摘要由四因子模型看美股回调逻辑。1）何谓美股四因子模型？美股定价包括四个因素：美国经济、非美经济、无风险利率、风险溢价。我们分别用美国制造业PMI、全球制造业PMI、2年期美债收益率与欧美经济政策不确","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p><b>Looking at the callback logic of U.S. stocks from the four-factor model. 1) What is the four-factor model of US stocks?</b>U.S. stock pricing includes four factors: U.S. economy, non-U.S. economy, risk-free interest rate, and risk premium. We use the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the global manufacturing PMI, the 2-year U.S. bond yield and the European and American Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) to describe the above four aspects.<b>2) The four-factor model shows that U.S. stocks have been overbought in the past six months.</b>This model can predict whether there is an overrise or overshoot in U.S. stocks, but whenever the actual value of the S&P 500 index deviates by more than 5 percentage points from the model value, it indicates that the volatility of U.S. stocks will be amplified. The model shows that U.S. stocks will continue to be overbought from July to December 2021.<b>3) Which factor hit U.S. stocks hard?</b>The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield soared amid rate hike expectations. Since Q4 last year, against the backdrop of rapidly rising rate hike expectations, the 2-year U.S. bond yield has soared nearly three times in four months.</p><p><b>Has the U.S. stock market adjustment been in place? 1) 2Y U.S. bond yields are a shadow indicator of rate hike expectations.</b>At present, the 2-year U.S. bond yield has implied the Fed's three and a half rate hike expectations. But if the Fed's rate hike is more aggressive this year and next, the 2-year U.S. bond yield can be higher during the year.<b>2) Before a more aggressive rate hike, the Federal Reserve will most likely shrinking balance sheet first.</b>However, under more aggressive rate hike expectations, the probability of an inversion of the U.S. debt curve during the year is not low, and then the risk of recession will increase sharply. Furthermore, we infer that after the Fed's first rate hike in March, there may be another rate hike in June. In Q3, shrinking balance sheet will be used instead of rate hike and long-term bond yields will be pushed up to prevent the curve from inverting prematurely. After the mid-term elections, rate hike will be more radical.<b>3) The short-term adjustment of U.S. stocks may have been (close to) in place.</b>Empirically speaking, once the VIX rises above 30, the 2-year U.S. bond yield will turn down, and the current VIX is 28.85. In addition, there is no dot plot at the January interest rate meeting, and the upward trend in the 2-year U.S. bond yield after next week's interest rate meeting may come to an end temporarily. Furthermore, the S&P 500 index may gradually stop falling around 4,300 points. Of course, the risk warning here is \"under high inflation, this time may be different.\"</p><p><b>Will U.S. stocks replicate the trend of 1999-2000? 1) Fundamentally, U.S. stocks are similar to the end of 2018, but emotionally, they are more like 1999.</b>The background of U.S. stock adjustment in 2015Q4 and 2018Q4 is similar: the economic slowdown superimposed on strong rate hike expectations. The same is true for now. But emotionally, U.S. stocks resemble 1999. After the Asian financial crisis, U.S. stocks stood out, and a large influx of funds accelerated the bubble of U.S. stocks. After the epidemic, a large amount of funds also poured into the US stock market. As of the end of October last year, the trading volume of individual stock options in the United States was nearly six times that before the epidemic. After the epidemic, personal savings in the United States increased by US $2.48 trillion. This factor may continue to support the trading enthusiasm of individual investors.<b>2) The start of a rate hike will amplify the volatility of U.S. stocks, but the rally may not end immediately.</b>U.S. stocks fluctuated greatly before and after the first rate hike in June 1999, followed by twists and turns, but only peaked in March 2000.<b>3) Looking back, there are about two situations in U.S. stocks. Scenario 1:</b>After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this week, U.S. stocks stopped falling and rebounded. U.S. stocks are currently around the position of Q3 in 1999. Subsequently, before the mid-term elections, the Fed's policy turned slightly dovish, and the upward slope of the 2-year U.S. bond yield eased and U.S. stocks surged again. After the mid-term elections, the Fed accelerated its rate hike and finally ended this round of U.S. stock bull market.<b>Scenario 2:</b>This week, the Federal Reserve gave a more hawkish signal, which means that the current U.S. stock market may only be in the middle of adjustment, and the possibility that the bull market has ended cannot be ruled out.<b>At present, we still think that the probability of Scenario 1 is higher, which is also a short-term good news for China.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Looking at the callback logic of US stocks from the four-factor model</b></p><p><b>(1) What is the four-factor model of US stocks?</b></p><p>Simply put, U.S. stock pricing includes four factors: U.S. economy, non-U.S. economy, risk-free interest rate, and risk premium. We use the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the global manufacturing PMI, the 2-year U.S. bond yield and the European and American Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) to describe the above four aspects. We would like to emphasize here why the 2-year U.S. bond yield is used in U.S. stock pricing instead of the 10-year bond, which is the most concerned by the market. The reason is simple: the 2-year U.S. bond yield reflects the market's expectation of the U.S. benchmark interest rate is the opportunity cost of U.S. stock trading.</p><p><b>(2) The four-factor model shows that US stocks have been overbought in the past six months</b></p><p>This model can be used to predict the trend of the S&P 500 index, but compared with the prediction of the index point, it is the biggest highlight of this model to look forward to whether the S&P and even U.S. stocks overrise or overshoot. According to the backtest from 2012 to 2019, whenever the actual value of the S&P 500 index deviates by more than 5 percentage points from the model value, it indicates that the fluctuation of U.S. stocks will be amplified: if the upward deviation exceeds 5%, it indicates that U.S. stocks are overrising, and there is a high probability that it will adjust; A downward deviation of more than 5% indicates that the U.S. stock market has overshooted or failed to reach its due increase, and there is a high probability that it will rebound or make up for the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96b2bbca2ec5d94bd1698348bfbaea93\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a12e36e993b4193fc5198ae154d1cde8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, two factors after the epidemic may reduce the sensitivity of the model. On the one hand, after the outbreak of the epidemic, the participation of retail investors in U.S. stocks has increased significantly, which we can use individual stock option trading volume data to confirm; On the other hand, the uncertainty of the epidemic is difficult to look forward and can only be tracked, and this factor interferes with economic fundamentals, real interest rates and uncertainty at the same time, making quantitative estimation more difficult. However, it is undeniable that U.S. stocks will continue to be overbought signals from July to December 2021.</p><p><b>(3) Which factor hit U.S. stocks hard? 2-year U.S. Treasury yields surge amid rate hike expectations</b></p><p>Once one of the four factors changes rapidly in a short period of time, it will easily lead to market fluctuations. In fact, although the two factors of U.S. manufacturing PMI and global manufacturing PMI have slowed down, the downward rate is not significant; Although Omicron has caused the number of new confirmed cases in the United States to soar every day, the process has not exacerbated public panic about the economy due to the low severe illness rate and fatality rate (as shown in Figure 3). On the contrary, since Q4 last year, the 2-year U.S. bond yield has soared from 0.3% to nearly 1.1% against the background of rapid rise in rate hike expectations. It seems that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has only risen by 80BP, but it has actually soared nearly three times in less than 4 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/accd07f4d2d95211b7958b44ec8bad1c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373f59687d1a411bd6e0cb3fabc3930a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Is the adjustment of U.S. stocks in place?</b></p><p>The key to this issue is what kind of rate hike signal the Federal Reserve will release at next week's interest rate meeting. If the Federal Reserve holds high early and puts it lightly, the short-term adjustment of U.S. stocks may be close to being in place; However, if the Federal Reserve releases stronger rate hike information, it cannot be ruled out that U.S. stocks will fall further. Of course, considering that the FOMC did not have a dot plot in January, but only released the meeting statement and Powell's speech, it is expected that the probability of U.S. stocks stopping falling immediately is higher. But as we said before, this year's U.S. stock market may follow the trend of 1999-2000. It may rise again before the mid-term elections, and will still usher in a sharp drop after the election.</p><p><b>(1) 2Y U.S. bond yields are a shadow indicator of rate hike expectations</b></p><p>In fact, the main macro driving force behind the fluctuation of U.S. bond yields with maturities of 2 years and less is the expectation of the Fed's rate hike/interest rate cut. Since 2 years is an excellent liquidity period in U.S. bonds, we can regard the 2-year U.S. bond yield as an indicator of the impact of the Fed's rate hike expectations. Two points can be discussed here: First, the current 2-year U.S. bond yield contains several rate hike expectations; Second, how many rate hike expectations can the 2-year U.S. bond yield contain at most?</p><p>If a single rate hike is 25BP as the standard (if the Fed's one-time rate hike is 50BP, we can consider it equivalent to two rate hike), the current 2-year U.S. bond yield of 1.01% already implies the Fed's three and a half rate hike. Previously, the Fed's expectation to the market was that there would be 3-4 rate hike this year. It seems that the current 2-year U.S. bond yield level has fully reflected rate hike's expectations? Actually it's not. As shown in Figure 5, first of all, the current difference between the 2-year U.S. bond yield and the benchmark interest rate is indeed at a relatively high level after the financial crisis, but the 10 years after the financial crisis have always been in a low inflation environment. Now in the high inflation environment, Perhaps we should use pre-financial crisis as the frame of reference. In addition, if the difference between the 2-year U.S. bond yield and the benchmark interest rate remains at the current level, the 2-year U.S. bond yield can also rise further with the landing of rate hike boots in March. Furthermore, as long as the Federal Reserve gives a more aggressive rate hike signal, the 2-year U.S. bond yield can even reach more than 2.0% during the year (4 rate hike during the year, and 4 signals of rate hike next year). So will the 2-year U.S. bond yield reach 2.0%?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0107aebc9c0c15df77d137fa8c4e57d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Before a more aggressive rate hike, the Fed will most likely shrinking balance sheet first</b></p><p>The difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields is used by the New York Fed to predict the probability of an economic recession in the next 12 months. Once it is inverted, the probability of a recession will soar. Figure 7 also confirms this point. This is why before the start of each rate hike cycle, the current difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields of the Federal Reserve is only 0.74%. As long as the market expects that each rate hike in March, June, September, and December is 25BP, then the probability of inversion of the U.S. bond curve will increase greatly. Of course, some people will raise questions here: as long as the 10-year U.S. bond yield is ensured to rise simultaneously, the U.S. bond curve will not be inverted. However, rate hike (expected) is the most critical macro driver for the upward movement of 2-year U.S. bond yields, and the weight is extremely high; There is great uncertainty in the trend of the 10-year U.S. bond yield, and the \"right to speak\" of monetary policy is limited. Simply put, the 10-year U.S. bond yield is driven by economic fundamentals, inflation (expectations), uncertainty represented by the epidemic, and the Federal Reserve's quantitative monetary policy tools.</p><p>Although the U.S. economy is strong this year, its growth rate is not as fast as last year; Although inflation is not low, there is a high probability that it will still be lower than last year after the base switch; Although the epidemic is approaching the dawn, it is hard to say. Therefore, amid many uncertainties, it may not be very wise for the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate hike before the mid-term elections at the risk of inverting the U.S. debt curve. In our report \"What does it mean for the Fed to\" brew \"a shrinking balance sheet?\" It was pointed out that the short-term purpose of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet is to push up long-term U.S. bond yields to prevent the curve from inverting prematurely. In addition, it is still a high probability that before the mid-term elections in early November, we infer that after the Federal Reserve quickly implemented its first rate hike in March, there may be (not necessarily) another rate hike in June, and then shrinking balance sheet will be used in Q3 to replace more rate hike, and rate hike will be more radical after the mid-term elections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a536c9aa724c2f9d308c73255badde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d18c486b4790db72b1e5828e51ae297\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Short-term adjustments in U.S. stocks may have been (close to) in place</b></p><p>If the 2-year U.S. bond yield does not rise further in the short term and the S&P 500 index falls to around 4,300 points, the overrise signal will disappear, which is a reasonable level. Judging from the current situation, the probability of close to stopping the decline in the short term is high. Since there is no dot plot at the January interest rate meeting, and the probability of Powell sending a more hawkish signal at the press conference with market volatility is not high, the upward trend of 2-year U.S. bond yields after next week's interest rate meeting is expected to come to an end temporarily. In addition, various assets are linked. For example, once market risk appetite shrinks rapidly, U.S. stocks plummet and VIX soars, U.S. bond yields will naturally fall. Although market sentiment has a more direct impact on the 10-year U.S. bond yield, it will inevitably interfere with rate hike expectations and the 2-year U.S. bond yield.</p><p>As shown in Figure 8-9, when the U.S. stock market experienced a week of decline and the VIX rebounded to 28.85, the world's largest gold ETF-SPDR increased its holdings of gold by 27.59 tons in one day on January 21, the highest since September 21, 2020. The most. Since gold closed down slightly that day, and this change is most likely the result of institutional investors increasing their holdings, there are only two logics behind it: expecting the market to risk-off, or believing that the Fed's attitude will ease next week. If this reverse thinking logic is confirmed, we believe that the probability of U.S. stocks stopping falling in the short term is actually not low. Combined with Figure 10, it can be seen that since the birth of the VIX index in the 1990s, once it rises above 30, the 2-year U.S. bond yield will turn down, indicating that it will become a small probability event that the 2-year U.S. bond yield will continue to rise after U.S. stocks continue to fall. Of course, the risk warning is \"under high inflation, this time may be different.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff36a68ac714ae77525eb53a2b2c7d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c81e41d5a71f54979de7d925868f448\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1640763a61364f03d7966195448a52b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Will U.S. stocks replicate the trend of 1999-2000?</b></p><p>In our report on January 2, \"U.S. Stocks: Late 2018 or early 1999?\", it was pointed out that the fundamentals of U.S. stocks are similar to the end of 2018, but the sentiment is more like 1999. First of all, there is a similar macro background behind the adjustment of US stocks in 2015Q4 and 2018Q4: the economic slowdown superimposed on strong rate hike expectations. Similar at the moment. The U.S. economic growth rate in 2022Q1 is likely to be lower than that in 2021Q4; At present, the Federal Reserve has accelerated Taper and rate hike three times and launched forward-looking guidance for shrinking balance sheet within the year. But in terms of emotion, U.S. stocks are similar to those in early 1999. After the Asian financial crisis, U.S. stocks stood out, and a large influx of funds accelerated the bubble of U.S. stocks. Similarly, a large amount of funds poured into the U.S. stock market after the epidemic. As shown in Figure 2 above, as of the end of October last year, the trading volume of individual stock options in the United States was close to six times that before the epidemic. After the epidemic, personal savings in the United States increased by US $2.48 trillion. This factor may continue to support the trading enthusiasm of individual investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f19e32be1bfe05fb84803c86a305a36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, it is worth noting that in 1999, U.S. stocks did not rise all the way but fluctuated greatly, especially around the first rate hike of the Federal Reserve in June 1999. Before the first rate hike of that year, the S&P fell 6.1% from May 14 to 25, 1999. After rebounding and hitting a new high, it fell 12.1% from July 19 to October 14. After rebounding and hitting a new high, it fell again in January 2000. It fell 7.4%, but the tenacious U.S. stock market rebounded again after the adjustment and finally peaked at 1527.46 on March 24.</p><p>Looking back, there are about two situations in U.S. stocks.<b>Scenario 1:</b>As expected earlier, U.S. stocks stopped falling and rebounded after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this week, and U.S. stocks are currently around the position of Q3 in 1999. Subsequently, before the mid-term elections, the Fed's policy turned slightly dovish, and the upward slope of the 2-year U.S. bond yield eased and U.S. stocks surged again. After the mid-term elections, the Fed accelerated its rate hike and finally ended this round of U.S. stock bull market.<b>Scenario 2:</b>This week, the Federal Reserve gave a more hawkish signal, which means that the current U.S. stock market may only be in the middle of adjustment, and the possibility that the bull market has ended cannot be ruled out. It's just,<b>At present, we still think that the probability of Scenario 1 is higher, which is also a short-term good news for China.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604eb16175d4a33f70a19b8f0ebcf37f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>(1) The epidemic situation in the United States exceeds expectations</p><p>(2) The Federal Reserve's monetary policy exceeds expectations</p><p>(3) The trend of US stocks exceeded expectations</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571618842096","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who hit U.S. stocks hard? 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What do you think of the back?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">静观金融</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-24 14:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p><b>Looking at the callback logic of U.S. stocks from the four-factor model. 1) What is the four-factor model of US stocks?</b>U.S. stock pricing includes four factors: U.S. economy, non-U.S. economy, risk-free interest rate, and risk premium. We use the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the global manufacturing PMI, the 2-year U.S. bond yield and the European and American Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) to describe the above four aspects.<b>2) The four-factor model shows that U.S. stocks have been overbought in the past six months.</b>This model can predict whether there is an overrise or overshoot in U.S. stocks, but whenever the actual value of the S&P 500 index deviates by more than 5 percentage points from the model value, it indicates that the volatility of U.S. stocks will be amplified. The model shows that U.S. stocks will continue to be overbought from July to December 2021.<b>3) Which factor hit U.S. stocks hard?</b>The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield soared amid rate hike expectations. Since Q4 last year, against the backdrop of rapidly rising rate hike expectations, the 2-year U.S. bond yield has soared nearly three times in four months.</p><p><b>Has the U.S. stock market adjustment been in place? 1) 2Y U.S. bond yields are a shadow indicator of rate hike expectations.</b>At present, the 2-year U.S. bond yield has implied the Fed's three and a half rate hike expectations. But if the Fed's rate hike is more aggressive this year and next, the 2-year U.S. bond yield can be higher during the year.<b>2) Before a more aggressive rate hike, the Federal Reserve will most likely shrinking balance sheet first.</b>However, under more aggressive rate hike expectations, the probability of an inversion of the U.S. debt curve during the year is not low, and then the risk of recession will increase sharply. Furthermore, we infer that after the Fed's first rate hike in March, there may be another rate hike in June. In Q3, shrinking balance sheet will be used instead of rate hike and long-term bond yields will be pushed up to prevent the curve from inverting prematurely. After the mid-term elections, rate hike will be more radical.<b>3) The short-term adjustment of U.S. stocks may have been (close to) in place.</b>Empirically speaking, once the VIX rises above 30, the 2-year U.S. bond yield will turn down, and the current VIX is 28.85. In addition, there is no dot plot at the January interest rate meeting, and the upward trend in the 2-year U.S. bond yield after next week's interest rate meeting may come to an end temporarily. Furthermore, the S&P 500 index may gradually stop falling around 4,300 points. Of course, the risk warning here is \"under high inflation, this time may be different.\"</p><p><b>Will U.S. stocks replicate the trend of 1999-2000? 1) Fundamentally, U.S. stocks are similar to the end of 2018, but emotionally, they are more like 1999.</b>The background of U.S. stock adjustment in 2015Q4 and 2018Q4 is similar: the economic slowdown superimposed on strong rate hike expectations. The same is true for now. But emotionally, U.S. stocks resemble 1999. After the Asian financial crisis, U.S. stocks stood out, and a large influx of funds accelerated the bubble of U.S. stocks. After the epidemic, a large amount of funds also poured into the US stock market. As of the end of October last year, the trading volume of individual stock options in the United States was nearly six times that before the epidemic. After the epidemic, personal savings in the United States increased by US $2.48 trillion. This factor may continue to support the trading enthusiasm of individual investors.<b>2) The start of a rate hike will amplify the volatility of U.S. stocks, but the rally may not end immediately.</b>U.S. stocks fluctuated greatly before and after the first rate hike in June 1999, followed by twists and turns, but only peaked in March 2000.<b>3) Looking back, there are about two situations in U.S. stocks. Scenario 1:</b>After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this week, U.S. stocks stopped falling and rebounded. U.S. stocks are currently around the position of Q3 in 1999. Subsequently, before the mid-term elections, the Fed's policy turned slightly dovish, and the upward slope of the 2-year U.S. bond yield eased and U.S. stocks surged again. After the mid-term elections, the Fed accelerated its rate hike and finally ended this round of U.S. stock bull market.<b>Scenario 2:</b>This week, the Federal Reserve gave a more hawkish signal, which means that the current U.S. stock market may only be in the middle of adjustment, and the possibility that the bull market has ended cannot be ruled out.<b>At present, we still think that the probability of Scenario 1 is higher, which is also a short-term good news for China.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1. Looking at the callback logic of US stocks from the four-factor model</b></p><p><b>(1) What is the four-factor model of US stocks?</b></p><p>Simply put, U.S. stock pricing includes four factors: U.S. economy, non-U.S. economy, risk-free interest rate, and risk premium. We use the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the global manufacturing PMI, the 2-year U.S. bond yield and the European and American Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) to describe the above four aspects. We would like to emphasize here why the 2-year U.S. bond yield is used in U.S. stock pricing instead of the 10-year bond, which is the most concerned by the market. The reason is simple: the 2-year U.S. bond yield reflects the market's expectation of the U.S. benchmark interest rate is the opportunity cost of U.S. stock trading.</p><p><b>(2) The four-factor model shows that US stocks have been overbought in the past six months</b></p><p>This model can be used to predict the trend of the S&P 500 index, but compared with the prediction of the index point, it is the biggest highlight of this model to look forward to whether the S&P and even U.S. stocks overrise or overshoot. According to the backtest from 2012 to 2019, whenever the actual value of the S&P 500 index deviates by more than 5 percentage points from the model value, it indicates that the fluctuation of U.S. stocks will be amplified: if the upward deviation exceeds 5%, it indicates that U.S. stocks are overrising, and there is a high probability that it will adjust; A downward deviation of more than 5% indicates that the U.S. stock market has overshooted or failed to reach its due increase, and there is a high probability that it will rebound or make up for the increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96b2bbca2ec5d94bd1698348bfbaea93\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a12e36e993b4193fc5198ae154d1cde8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, two factors after the epidemic may reduce the sensitivity of the model. On the one hand, after the outbreak of the epidemic, the participation of retail investors in U.S. stocks has increased significantly, which we can use individual stock option trading volume data to confirm; On the other hand, the uncertainty of the epidemic is difficult to look forward and can only be tracked, and this factor interferes with economic fundamentals, real interest rates and uncertainty at the same time, making quantitative estimation more difficult. However, it is undeniable that U.S. stocks will continue to be overbought signals from July to December 2021.</p><p><b>(3) Which factor hit U.S. stocks hard? 2-year U.S. Treasury yields surge amid rate hike expectations</b></p><p>Once one of the four factors changes rapidly in a short period of time, it will easily lead to market fluctuations. In fact, although the two factors of U.S. manufacturing PMI and global manufacturing PMI have slowed down, the downward rate is not significant; Although Omicron has caused the number of new confirmed cases in the United States to soar every day, the process has not exacerbated public panic about the economy due to the low severe illness rate and fatality rate (as shown in Figure 3). On the contrary, since Q4 last year, the 2-year U.S. bond yield has soared from 0.3% to nearly 1.1% against the background of rapid rise in rate hike expectations. It seems that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has only risen by 80BP, but it has actually soared nearly three times in less than 4 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/accd07f4d2d95211b7958b44ec8bad1c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373f59687d1a411bd6e0cb3fabc3930a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Is the adjustment of U.S. stocks in place?</b></p><p>The key to this issue is what kind of rate hike signal the Federal Reserve will release at next week's interest rate meeting. If the Federal Reserve holds high early and puts it lightly, the short-term adjustment of U.S. stocks may be close to being in place; However, if the Federal Reserve releases stronger rate hike information, it cannot be ruled out that U.S. stocks will fall further. Of course, considering that the FOMC did not have a dot plot in January, but only released the meeting statement and Powell's speech, it is expected that the probability of U.S. stocks stopping falling immediately is higher. But as we said before, this year's U.S. stock market may follow the trend of 1999-2000. It may rise again before the mid-term elections, and will still usher in a sharp drop after the election.</p><p><b>(1) 2Y U.S. bond yields are a shadow indicator of rate hike expectations</b></p><p>In fact, the main macro driving force behind the fluctuation of U.S. bond yields with maturities of 2 years and less is the expectation of the Fed's rate hike/interest rate cut. Since 2 years is an excellent liquidity period in U.S. bonds, we can regard the 2-year U.S. bond yield as an indicator of the impact of the Fed's rate hike expectations. Two points can be discussed here: First, the current 2-year U.S. bond yield contains several rate hike expectations; Second, how many rate hike expectations can the 2-year U.S. bond yield contain at most?</p><p>If a single rate hike is 25BP as the standard (if the Fed's one-time rate hike is 50BP, we can consider it equivalent to two rate hike), the current 2-year U.S. bond yield of 1.01% already implies the Fed's three and a half rate hike. Previously, the Fed's expectation to the market was that there would be 3-4 rate hike this year. It seems that the current 2-year U.S. bond yield level has fully reflected rate hike's expectations? Actually it's not. As shown in Figure 5, first of all, the current difference between the 2-year U.S. bond yield and the benchmark interest rate is indeed at a relatively high level after the financial crisis, but the 10 years after the financial crisis have always been in a low inflation environment. Now in the high inflation environment, Perhaps we should use pre-financial crisis as the frame of reference. In addition, if the difference between the 2-year U.S. bond yield and the benchmark interest rate remains at the current level, the 2-year U.S. bond yield can also rise further with the landing of rate hike boots in March. Furthermore, as long as the Federal Reserve gives a more aggressive rate hike signal, the 2-year U.S. bond yield can even reach more than 2.0% during the year (4 rate hike during the year, and 4 signals of rate hike next year). So will the 2-year U.S. bond yield reach 2.0%?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0107aebc9c0c15df77d137fa8c4e57d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Before a more aggressive rate hike, the Fed will most likely shrinking balance sheet first</b></p><p>The difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields is used by the New York Fed to predict the probability of an economic recession in the next 12 months. Once it is inverted, the probability of a recession will soar. Figure 7 also confirms this point. This is why before the start of each rate hike cycle, the current difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields of the Federal Reserve is only 0.74%. As long as the market expects that each rate hike in March, June, September, and December is 25BP, then the probability of inversion of the U.S. bond curve will increase greatly. Of course, some people will raise questions here: as long as the 10-year U.S. bond yield is ensured to rise simultaneously, the U.S. bond curve will not be inverted. However, rate hike (expected) is the most critical macro driver for the upward movement of 2-year U.S. bond yields, and the weight is extremely high; There is great uncertainty in the trend of the 10-year U.S. bond yield, and the \"right to speak\" of monetary policy is limited. Simply put, the 10-year U.S. bond yield is driven by economic fundamentals, inflation (expectations), uncertainty represented by the epidemic, and the Federal Reserve's quantitative monetary policy tools.</p><p>Although the U.S. economy is strong this year, its growth rate is not as fast as last year; Although inflation is not low, there is a high probability that it will still be lower than last year after the base switch; Although the epidemic is approaching the dawn, it is hard to say. Therefore, amid many uncertainties, it may not be very wise for the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate hike before the mid-term elections at the risk of inverting the U.S. debt curve. In our report \"What does it mean for the Fed to\" brew \"a shrinking balance sheet?\" It was pointed out that the short-term purpose of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet is to push up long-term U.S. bond yields to prevent the curve from inverting prematurely. In addition, it is still a high probability that before the mid-term elections in early November, we infer that after the Federal Reserve quickly implemented its first rate hike in March, there may be (not necessarily) another rate hike in June, and then shrinking balance sheet will be used in Q3 to replace more rate hike, and rate hike will be more radical after the mid-term elections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a536c9aa724c2f9d308c73255badde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d18c486b4790db72b1e5828e51ae297\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) Short-term adjustments in U.S. stocks may have been (close to) in place</b></p><p>If the 2-year U.S. bond yield does not rise further in the short term and the S&P 500 index falls to around 4,300 points, the overrise signal will disappear, which is a reasonable level. Judging from the current situation, the probability of close to stopping the decline in the short term is high. Since there is no dot plot at the January interest rate meeting, and the probability of Powell sending a more hawkish signal at the press conference with market volatility is not high, the upward trend of 2-year U.S. bond yields after next week's interest rate meeting is expected to come to an end temporarily. In addition, various assets are linked. For example, once market risk appetite shrinks rapidly, U.S. stocks plummet and VIX soars, U.S. bond yields will naturally fall. Although market sentiment has a more direct impact on the 10-year U.S. bond yield, it will inevitably interfere with rate hike expectations and the 2-year U.S. bond yield.</p><p>As shown in Figure 8-9, when the U.S. stock market experienced a week of decline and the VIX rebounded to 28.85, the world's largest gold ETF-SPDR increased its holdings of gold by 27.59 tons in one day on January 21, the highest since September 21, 2020. The most. Since gold closed down slightly that day, and this change is most likely the result of institutional investors increasing their holdings, there are only two logics behind it: expecting the market to risk-off, or believing that the Fed's attitude will ease next week. If this reverse thinking logic is confirmed, we believe that the probability of U.S. stocks stopping falling in the short term is actually not low. Combined with Figure 10, it can be seen that since the birth of the VIX index in the 1990s, once it rises above 30, the 2-year U.S. bond yield will turn down, indicating that it will become a small probability event that the 2-year U.S. bond yield will continue to rise after U.S. stocks continue to fall. Of course, the risk warning is \"under high inflation, this time may be different.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff36a68ac714ae77525eb53a2b2c7d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c81e41d5a71f54979de7d925868f448\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1640763a61364f03d7966195448a52b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Will U.S. stocks replicate the trend of 1999-2000?</b></p><p>In our report on January 2, \"U.S. Stocks: Late 2018 or early 1999?\", it was pointed out that the fundamentals of U.S. stocks are similar to the end of 2018, but the sentiment is more like 1999. First of all, there is a similar macro background behind the adjustment of US stocks in 2015Q4 and 2018Q4: the economic slowdown superimposed on strong rate hike expectations. Similar at the moment. The U.S. economic growth rate in 2022Q1 is likely to be lower than that in 2021Q4; At present, the Federal Reserve has accelerated Taper and rate hike three times and launched forward-looking guidance for shrinking balance sheet within the year. But in terms of emotion, U.S. stocks are similar to those in early 1999. After the Asian financial crisis, U.S. stocks stood out, and a large influx of funds accelerated the bubble of U.S. stocks. Similarly, a large amount of funds poured into the U.S. stock market after the epidemic. As shown in Figure 2 above, as of the end of October last year, the trading volume of individual stock options in the United States was close to six times that before the epidemic. After the epidemic, personal savings in the United States increased by US $2.48 trillion. This factor may continue to support the trading enthusiasm of individual investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f19e32be1bfe05fb84803c86a305a36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, it is worth noting that in 1999, U.S. stocks did not rise all the way but fluctuated greatly, especially around the first rate hike of the Federal Reserve in June 1999. Before the first rate hike of that year, the S&P fell 6.1% from May 14 to 25, 1999. After rebounding and hitting a new high, it fell 12.1% from July 19 to October 14. After rebounding and hitting a new high, it fell again in January 2000. It fell 7.4%, but the tenacious U.S. stock market rebounded again after the adjustment and finally peaked at 1527.46 on March 24.</p><p>Looking back, there are about two situations in U.S. stocks.<b>Scenario 1:</b>As expected earlier, U.S. stocks stopped falling and rebounded after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this week, and U.S. stocks are currently around the position of Q3 in 1999. Subsequently, before the mid-term elections, the Fed's policy turned slightly dovish, and the upward slope of the 2-year U.S. bond yield eased and U.S. stocks surged again. After the mid-term elections, the Fed accelerated its rate hike and finally ended this round of U.S. stock bull market.<b>Scenario 2:</b>This week, the Federal Reserve gave a more hawkish signal, which means that the current U.S. stock market may only be in the middle of adjustment, and the possibility that the bull market has ended cannot be ruled out. It's just,<b>At present, we still think that the probability of Scenario 1 is higher, which is also a short-term good news for China.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604eb16175d4a33f70a19b8f0ebcf37f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>(1) The epidemic situation in the United States exceeds expectations</p><p>(2) The Federal Reserve's monetary policy exceeds expectations</p><p>(3) The trend of US stocks exceeded expectations</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e43_WcPxG3vKNW6H9sJBKw\">静观金融</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e43_WcPxG3vKNW6H9sJBKw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197782395","content_text":"摘要由四因子模型看美股回调逻辑。1）何谓美股四因子模型？美股定价包括四个因素：美国经济、非美经济、无风险利率、风险溢价。我们分别用美国制造业PMI、全球制造业PMI、2年期美债收益率与欧美经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）刻画上述四个方面。2）四因子模型显示过去半年美股始终处于超买状态。该模型可前瞻美股是否存在超涨或超调，但凡标普500指数实际值相对模型值偏离度超过5个百分点就表明美股波动将放大。该模型显示2021年7-12月美股持续超买。3）哪个因素重创美股？加息预期下的2年期美债收益率飙升。去年Q4以来在加息预期快速升温的背景下，2年期美债收益率已在4个月内飙升了近3倍。美股调整到位了吗？1）2Y美债收益率是加息预期的影子指标。目前2年期美债收益率已经隐含了美联储3次半加息预期。但若今明两年美联储加息更为激进，年内2年期美债收益率可以更高。2）更激进加息前美联储大概率会先缩表。但更为激进的加息预期下，年内美债曲线倒挂的概率不低，随后衰退风险陡增。进而，我们推断美联储在3月首次加息后，6月或有再度加息，Q3用缩表代替加息并推升长债收益率防止曲线过早倒挂，中期选举后再更激进加息。3）美股短期调整或已（接近）到位。经验上，一旦VIX升破30，2年期美债收益率就会转降，目前VIX为28.85。此外，1月议息会议没有点阵图，下周议息会议后2年期美债收益率的升势或暂告一段落。进而，标普500指数或于4300点附近逐步止跌。当然，此处的风险提示就是“高通胀之下，这次或许不一样”。美股是否会复制1999-2000年走势？1）基本面看美股类似2018年底，但情绪面上更像1999年。2015Q4与2018Q4美股调整背景类似：经济放缓叠加强烈的加息预期。目前亦然。但情绪面上美股酷似1999年。亚洲金融危机后，美股一枝独秀，大量资金涌入令美股加速泡沫化。疫后也有大量资金涌入美股市场。截至去年10月底美国个股期权成交量接近疫前的6倍。疫后美国个人储蓄多增2.48万亿美元，该因素或将继续支持个人投资者的交易热情。2）加息启动会放大美股波动，但涨势未必立即结束。1999年6月首次加息前后美股波动极大，随后一波三折但2000年3月方才见顶。3）往后看，美股大约存在两种情形。情形一：本周美联储议息会议后美股止跌反弹则目前美股大约处在1999年Q3的位置。随后，中期选举前美联储政策略微转鸽，2年期美债收益率上行斜率缓和美股再度冲高，中期选举后美联储加速加息并最终终结本轮美股牛市。情形二：本周美联储给出更为鹰派的信号，则意味着目前美股可能仅处于调整中段，不排除牛市已然终结的可能性。目前我们仍然认为情形一概率更高，进而对国内而言，这也不失为一个短期的好消息。正文一、由四因子模型看美股回调逻辑（一）何谓美股四因子模型？简单说，美股定价包括四个因素：美国经济、非美经济、无风险利率、风险溢价。我们分别用美国制造业PMI、全球制造业PMI、2年期美债收益率与欧美经济政策不确定性指数（EPU）刻画上述四个方面。我们在这里要强调一下，为什么在美股定价中用到的是2年期美债收益率而非市场关注度最高的10年期，原因很简单：2年期美债收益率反映的是市场对于美国基准利率的预期，才是美股交易的机会成本。（二）四因子模型显示过去半年美股始终处于超买状态该模型可被应用于预测标普500指数走势，但是相比于对指数点位的预测，前瞻标普乃至美股是否存在超涨或超调才是该模型的最大亮点。根据2012年-2019年的回测，但凡标普500指数实际值相对模型值偏离度超过5个百分点就表明美股波动将放大：假若是向上偏离超过5%就表明美股存在超涨，大概率会调整；向下偏离超过5%就表明美股存在超调或者未能达到应有涨幅，大概率会反弹或补涨。当然，疫后两点因素可能令该模型灵敏度有所下降。一方面，疫情暴发后，美股中散户参与度明显上升，我们可以用个股期权交易量数据印证；另一方面，疫情的不确定性难以前瞻只能跟踪，而该因素同时干扰经济基本面、实际利率与不确定性三因素，加大了定量估算的难度。但是，不可否认，2021年7-12月持续给出美股超买信号。（三）哪个因素重创美股？加息预期下的2年期美债收益率飙升四因子中一旦有一个因素在短期内出现急速变化就容易引发市场波动。事实上，美国制造业PMI、全球制造业PMI两因素虽然放缓，但下行速率并不显著；尽管奥密克戎令美国每日新增确诊人数飙升，但由于重症率及致死率不高进而该过程并未加剧民众对于经济的恐慌（如图3）。相反，去年Q4以来在加息预期快速升温的背景下，2年期美债收益率已由0.3%飙升至将近1.1%。看上去，2年期美债收益率只上升了80BP，但实际上是在不到4个月的时间内飙升了近3倍。二、美股调整到位了吗？这个问题的关键在下周美联储议息会议释放怎样的加息信号。假若美联储提早高举轻放，美股短期调整或已接近到位；但若美联储释放更强烈加息信息，不排除美股会有进一步下挫。当然，考虑到1月FOMC并没有点阵图，而仅公布会议声明、鲍威尔讲话，预计美股随即止跌概率更高。但正如我们此前所言，今年美股或将演绎1999-2000年走势，中期选举前可能再次上冲、选举后仍将迎来大跌。（一）2Y美债收益率是加息预期的影子指标事实上，2年及以内期限美债收益率波动的主要宏观驱动力就是对美联储加息/降息的预期，由于2年是美债中流动性极好的期限，因此我们可以将2年期美债收益率视为美联储加息预期的影响指标。这里就可以探讨两点：一是现在的2年期美债收益率包含了几次加息预期；二是2年期美债收益率最多可以包含几次加息预期？假若以单次加息25BP为标准（假若美联储一次性加息50BP，我们可以认为相当于两次加息），目前1.01%的2年期美债收益率已经隐含了美联储的3次半加息。此前，联储给到市场的预期也就是今年加息3-4次，看似目前的2年期美债收益率水平已经充分反映了加息预期？实则不然。如图5所示，首先，目前2年期美债收益率与基准利率的差值确实处于金融危机后的较高水平，但金融危机后的10年始终处于低通胀环境，如今高通胀环境下或许应以金融危机前为参照系。此外，假若2年期美债收益率与基准利率的差值保持当前水平，随着3月加息靴子落地，2年期美债收益率亦可进一步走高。进而，只要美联储给出更激进的加息信号，年内2年期美债收益率甚至可以到2.0%（年内加息4次，再释放明年加息4次的信号）以上。那么2年期美债收益率会到2.0%吗？（二）更激进加息前美联储大概率会先缩表10年期与2年期美债收益率差值被纽约联储用于预测未来12个月经济衰退概率，一旦倒挂衰退概率就将飙升，图7也印证了这一点。这也是此前每轮加息周期启动前美联储都会目前10年期与2年期美债收益率差值仅为0.74%，只要按照市场预期3月、6月、9月、12月每期加息25BP，那么美债曲线倒挂的几率就将大增。当然，此处会有人提出疑问：只要确保10年期美债收益率同步上行，美债曲线就不会倒挂了。但是，加息（预期）是2年期美债收益率上行的最关键宏观驱动因素，权重极高；10年期美债收益率的走势却存在极大的不确定性，货币政策“话语权”有限。简单地说，10年期美债收益率由经济基本面、通胀（预期）、以疫情为代表的不确定性以及美联储数量型货币政策工具共同驱动。今年美国经济虽强劲，但增速不及去年；通胀虽不低，但基数切换后大概率还是低于去年；疫情虽接近迎来曙光，但这事儿也说不好。所以在诸多不确定性下，美联储冒着美债曲线倒挂风险在中期选举前加速加息可能并不非常明智。我们在报告《美联储“酝酿”缩表意味着什么？》中就曾指出，美联储缩表的短期目的就是推升长端美债收益率防止曲线过早倒挂。加上11月初中期选举前高举轻放仍是大概率，进而，我们推断美联储在3月快速落地首次加息后，6月或有（不一定）再度加息，随后Q3用缩表代替更多次加息，中期选举后再更激进加息。（三）美股短期调整或已（接近）到位假若短期内2年期美债收益率不再进一步走高，标普500指数跌至4300点附近则超涨信号就将消失，即为合理水平。从当前的形势看，短期接近止跌的概率较高。由于1月议息会议没有点阵图、市场波动至此鲍威尔在新闻发布会上传递更为鹰派信号的概率也并不高，因此下周议息会议后2年期美债收益率的升势有望暂时告一段落。此外，各类资产之间是联动的，比如一旦市场风险偏好快速收缩，美股大跌与VIX飙升的同时美债收益率也会自然回落。尽管市场情绪对10年期美债收益率影响更为直接，但也必然对加息预期以及2年期美债收益率形成干扰。如图8-9所示，在美股经历了一周下挫、VIX反弹至28.85之际，全球最大黄金ETF-SPDR在1月21日一天之内增持27.59吨黄金，为2020年9月21日以来之最。由于当天黄金小幅收跌，进而这一变化大概率是机构投资者增持的结果，背后无非两种逻辑：预期市场risk-off，亦或是认为下周美联储态度将有所缓和。如果这种逆向思维逻辑被证实，我们认为美股短期止跌的概率其实不低。结合图10可知，90年代VIX指数诞生以来，一旦升破30，2年期美债收益率就会转降，表明美股持续下挫后2年期美债收益率继续上升就将成为小概率事件。当然，风险提示就是“高通胀之下，这次或许不一样”。三、美股是否会复制1999-2000年走势？我们曾在1月2日的报告《美股：2018年底还是1999年初？》中指出，基本面看美股类似2018年底，但情绪面上更像1999年。首先，2015Q4与2018Q4美股调整背后有相似的宏观背景：经济放缓叠加强烈的加息预期。目前类似。2022Q1美国经济增速大概率低于2021Q4；目前美联储提速Taper、加息3次以及年内启动缩表的前瞻指引。但就情绪面来看美股又酷似1999年初。亚洲金融危机后，美股一枝独秀，大量资金涌入令美股加速泡沫化。类似地，疫后也有大量资金涌入美股市场。如前文图2所示，截至去年10月底美国个股期权成交量接近疫前的6倍。疫后美国个人储蓄多增2.48万亿美元，该因素或将继续支持个人投资者的交易热情。但值得注意的是，1999年美股并非一路上扬而是波动极大，特别是在1999年6月美联储首次加息前后。当年首次加息前1999年5月14日-25日标普下挫6.1%，反弹并创新高后又于7月19日-10月14日下挫12.1%，反弹并再创新高后2000年1月又下挫7.4%，但顽强的美股在调整后再次反弹并最终于3月24日见顶于1527.46。往后看，美股大约存在两种情形。情形一：如前文所预计的，本周美联储议息会议后美股止跌反弹则目前美股大约处在1999年Q3的位置。随后，中期选举前美联储政策略微转鸽，2年期美债收益率上行斜率缓和美股再度冲高，中期选举后美联储加速加息并最终终结本轮美股牛市。情形二：本周美联储给出更为鹰派的信号，则意味着目前美股可能仅处于调整中段，不排除牛市已然终结的可能性。只不过，目前我们仍然认为情形一概率更高，进而对国内而言，这也不失为一个短期的好消息。风险提示（一）美国疫情超预期（二）美联储货币政策超预期（三）美股走势超预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001609098,"gmtCreate":1641225350365,"gmtModify":1676533585265,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001609098","repostId":"2200423912","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200423912","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1641182366,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200423912?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 11:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"What do you think of U.S. stocks in 2022? Expected to replicate the trend of 1999-2000","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200423912","media":"静观金融","summary":"回到当下，假若在疫情反复与美联储转鸽共振之下，2022年美股呈现出类似1999-2000年的疯狂走势，中期选举后一旦美联储快速加息美股也极有可能出现较大级别的调整。2022年美股走势或有两种情形，情形二发生的概率开始高于情形一。可见，2022年Q1美国实际GDP环比折年率大概率显著低于2021年Q4。此外，美联储官员还通过点阵图传递了2022年或将加息3次的信息。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The extreme macro background after the epidemic caused many assets to \"derail\". 1) The impact of the epidemic on US stocks is far more complicated than expected. We had predicted that the day of herd immunity in the United States would be when U.S. stocks would fall.</b>After herd immunity, the United States will end its easing policy, and the upward movement of the real interest rate center will pose a threat to highly valued U.S. stocks. However, the epidemic is still uncertain, and the real interest rate in the United States is still at an extremely low level, which has boosted the valuation of U.S. stocks.<b>2) The trend of many assets after the epidemic has deviated from the normal track, which may indicate that the traditional framework is temporarily not suitable for analyzing the post-epidemic economic and asset price performance.</b>The trend of Hang Seng Index and LME copper shows a long-term positive correlation, and the two diverge after the epidemic; The ratio of developed MSCI to emerging MSCI is also positively correlated with the trend of the US Dollar Index, and the two also deviate after the epidemic. Before the Federal Reserve's rate hike, the difference between 10Y and 2Y U.S. bond yields would both hit 2%. At the end of last year, rate hike was expected to be strong, but the high point of the long-term and short-term U.S. bond spread in 2021 was only 1.58%.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Fundamentals are similar to the end of 2018; Risk appetite is similar to that of early 1999. 1) The current fundamentals of U.S. stocks are similar to 2015Q4 and 2018Q4.</b>There is a similar macro background behind the adjustment of US stocks in 2015Q4 and 2018Q4: the economic slowdown superimposed on strong rate hike expectations. Similar at the moment. The U.S. economic growth rate in 2022Q1 is likely to be lower than that in 2021Q4; In December, the FOMC and the Federal Reserve accelerated Taper and gave forward-looking guidance for three rate hike this year.<b>2) The current risk appetite of U.S. stocks is similar to that of early 1999.</b>The current S&P 500 CAPE is 39.98 times, which is only lower than before and after the burst of the Nasdaq bubble.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>After the crisis, the U.S. stock market stood out, and a large influx of funds accelerated the bubble of the U.S. stock market. Similarly, a large amount of funds poured into the U.S. stock market after the epidemic. As of the end of October, the trading volume of U.S. individual stock options was close to six times that before the epidemic. After the epidemic, personal savings in the United States increased by US $2.48 trillion. This factor may continue to support the trading enthusiasm of individual investors.</p><p><b>What do you think of U.S. stocks in 2022? It is expected to replicate the trend of 1999-2000. 1) It is not ruled out that the US stock market will experience the final madness after the epidemic.</b>Before the end of the epidemic, many American investors had the money, time and willingness (extremely low opportunity cost) to invest in US stocks. If the Fed turns dove this year, U.S. stocks will gain more upward momentum.<b>2) Who was the terminator of the 2000 US stock bubble? Maybe the Federal Reserve.</b>The Federal Reserve restarted its rate hike in June 1999, and the net purchase of U.S. stocks by overseas investors peaked in February 2000, while the Nasdaq index peaked the following month. Going back to the present, if the epidemic repeatedly resonates with the Fed's dovish turn, the U.S. stock market in 2022 will show a crazy trend similar to 1999-2000. After the mid-term elections, once the Fed rapidly rate hike the U.S. stock market, it is very likely that there will be a larger level of adjustment.</p><p><b>How does the outlook for U.S. stocks affect the domestic capital market? There may be two scenarios for the trend of U.S. stocks in 2022. The probability of Scenario 2 begins to be higher than Scenario 1. Scenario 1:</b>According to fundamental assessments, U.S. stocks will experience a sharp decline of about 15% in Q1 2022. Then rate hike is expected to cool down, and U.S. stocks will stop falling and stabilize and turn up. This situation may restrict the risk appetite of A shares in the short term, but the impact is limited.<b>Scenario 2:</b>From the emotional assessment, U.S. stocks may usher in the final madness after the epidemic in 2022. After the mid-term elections, as the Federal Reserve's rate hike accelerates, U.S. stocks may usher in a larger level of adjustment. Under this circumstance, the impact of U.S. stocks on A-shares will be more positive in 2022H1, and more negative after the mid-term elections.</p><p><b>1. The extreme macro background after the epidemic caused many assets to \"derail\"</b></p><p><b>(1) The impact of the epidemic on US stocks is far more complicated than expected</b></p><p>We had predicted that the day of herd immunity in the United States would be when U.S. stocks would fall. The logic is very simple. On the one hand, once herd immunity is achieved, the United States will end its loose fiscal and monetary policies, and even the Biden administration will most likely do its best to fulfill its tax increase promise and constrain the EPS of U.S. listed companies in order to win the 2022 mid-term elections. On the other hand, it can be seen from Figure 1-2 that the real interest rate in the United States (10-year TIPS yield) is driven by the epidemic. The real interest rate center continues to move up, and the superimposed high inflation expectations will inevitably push up the 10-year U.S. bond yield, posing a threat to highly valued U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/475b8f183356a6bf605bac05c8d0106b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/625e17cde63f029306013605ca8037f6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But in fact, the epidemic situation is more complicated than expected. Judging from the vaccination rate and the diagnosis rate, the United States may be considered or close to a herd immunity status, but the transition from Delta to Omicron proves that the epidemic is still uncertain. This uncertainty may have affected the U.S. job market in three ways: 1) The epidemic has restricted cross-border activities and hindered the recovery of foreign labor in the United States; 2) The employment participation rate of groups aged 54 and above is difficult to rebound; 3）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Upgrade acceleration. These unprecedented changes break away from the traditional cyclical framework and exacerbate the uncertainty of the economic outlook in the United States and even the world. Under the resonance of the uncertainty of the epidemic and the uncertainty of the economic outlook, the real interest rate in the United States is still at a very low level, which has greatly boosted the valuation of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a2cb5d1dd9c3ed43ba290a5681ea5bb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8dcd12954b0a287d214c960f3b252c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The trend of many assets after the epidemic has deviated from the normal track</b></p><p>The epidemic not only had an unconventional impact on U.S. stocks, but also caused many assets to show extreme trends. As shown in Figure 3, in the long run, the Hang Seng Index and the LME copper trend show positive correlation characteristics, but the deviation between the two is obvious after the epidemic; Looking further, as shown in Figure 4, the ratio of Hang Seng Index to LME copper price shows a positive correlation with the US Dollar Index, but the two diverged after the epidemic. As shown in Figure 5, in the long run, the ratio of the MSCI Developed Markets Index to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is also positively correlated with the trend of the US Dollar Index. However, after the epidemic, the former hit a new high after 2003, while the latter moved downward. Furthermore, combined with Figure 6, it can be seen that from 1990 to before the Federal Reserve's rate hike (or rate hike expectations) before the epidemic, the difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields will hit 2% (above), while December At the interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve has given forward-looking guidance for rate hike three times this year, but the high point of the difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields in 2021 is only 1.58% (March 20).</p><p>We will explain the reasons for the abnormal performance of the above-mentioned assets one by one in subsequent reports, but they are all sending the same signal: after the epidemic, the world is in a small probability interval in a normal distribution, and the traditional framework is no longer suitable for analyzing or explaining the post-epidemic economy. and asset price performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f17d83beaec053ffdc99dddfd394d0d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/017c371dcb6a589b77a991dca9419481\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. U.S. stocks: The fundamentals are similar to those at the end of 2018; Risk appetite resembles early 1999</b></p><p><b>(1) The current fundamentals of U.S. stocks are similar to those at the end of 2015 and 2018</b></p><p>In our report on November 26, 2021, \"Will the U.S. Stock Correction in Late 2015 and Late 2018 Repeat?\", we pointed out that the S&P 500 index fell 13.3% between November 3, 2015 and February 11, 2016, and 19.6% between October 1, 2018 and December 24, 2018. There is a similar macro background behind these two adjustments: the economic slowdown superimposed on too strong rate hike expectations. In Q4 2015, the real GDP of the United States slowed to an annualized rate of 0.6%. In this context, the Federal Reserve not only landed rate hike boots at the December 2015 interest rate meeting, but also conveyed to the market the forward-looking guidance that the Federal Reserve will rate hike four times in 2016. Similar to the situation in Q4 2015, the real GDP of the United States fell to an annualized rate of 0.9% in Q4 2018. At the same time, the Federal Reserve made four rate hike in 2018, and the dot plot of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September 2018 suggested that there would still be 2-3 rate hike in 2019, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose again on November 8. to 3.24%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6dccf7b610da17e37c897c6ddda2946\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94a8c8ea2cd483b7f0899bdc9717e3bf\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e0f4a315983398cd00d6983df8c8677\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>At present, the fundamental characteristics of U.S. stocks are very similar to those at the end of 2015 and 2018. 1) The U.S. economic growth rate in 2022Q1 is likely to be significantly lower than that in 2021Q4, which is very similar to that in 2015Q4 and 2018Q4.</b>According to the economic growth rate for the whole year of 2021 given by the Federal Reserve at the December interest rate meeting, the annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in 2021Q4 may be 6.8%. However, in our annual outlook, we predict that the U.S. economic growth rate in 2022 will be 3.7%, and the U.S. economic growth rate in 2022 given at the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting will be 4.0%. In addition, the U.S. Q1 economic growth rate has only accounted for 1/3 of the annual growth rate, and the real GDP growth rate of the United States from 1997 to 2000 was higher than 4% for four consecutive years, but the situation that the annualized rate of real GDP in Q1 exceeded 6.8% dates back to 1984. It can be seen that the annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in Q1 2022 is likely to be significantly lower than that in Q4 2021.<b>2) The Federal Reserve released extremely hawkish monetary policy signals, similar to those at the end of 2015 and September 2018.</b>At the interest rate meeting in December 2021, the Federal Reserve announced that it will accelerate the reduction of QE starting from January this year, from the current monthly reduction in the purchase of US $10 billion in U.S. debt and US $5 billion in MBS, to the monthly reduction in the purchase of US $20 billion in U.S. debt and US $10 billion in MBS until the end of this round of QE around March this year. In addition, Fed officials also conveyed the message that there may be three rate hike in 2022 through dot plots.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ccddb9e3bdc5c79f134c3f2032ee0f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The current risk appetite of U.S. stocks is similar to that of early 1999</b></p><p>We have always believed that high valuations are major risks to U.S. stocks, but the bubble is likely to be a complicated process from emergence to bursting. For example, as of December 31, 2021, the 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index was 39.98 times, the highest since October 2000, and only from January 1999 to September 2000 in history. The level of this indicator during the month was higher than the current level. In other words, the current risk appetite of U.S. stocks measured by CAPE is similar to that from the end of 1998 to the beginning of 1999. So how did the bubble process of the U.S. stock market in 1999-2000 come about? Assessing this process from the emotional side is related to the Asian financial crisis.</p><p>In the 1990s, there was the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the bursting of Japan's economic bubble, and then the Asian financial crisis. The United States gradually stood out because of its economic momentum of \"high growth and low inflation\". The certainty of the United States contrasts with the uncertainty outside the United States and drives international investors' enthusiasm for U.S. stocks to continue to rise. As shown in Figure 11, the influx of a large amount of funds into U.S. stocks from 1999 to 2000 caused a sharp rise in the risk appetite and valuation of U.S. stocks. The bubble process accelerated.</p><p>Similar to that time, an extraordinary amount of funds poured into the U.S. stock market after the epidemic. The difference is that the influx of these funds after the epidemic is not similar to the group behavior of global investors after the Asian financial crisis, but that fiscal transfer payments have greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of local investors for trading U.S. stocks. As shown in Figure 12, as of the end of October 2021, the nominal value of U.S. stock options trading volume (US $1.19 trillion) was close to 6 times that before the epidemic (US $0.22 trillion). Although the United States has completely ended fiscal transfer payments on September 6, 2021, fiscal transfer payments have increased personal savings in the United States by US $2.48 trillion since the beginning of 2020. This money still supports individual U.S. investors to boost the risk appetite of U.S. stocks by trading individual stock options.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01507e28faf0b01ac50161cec9df5707\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47dba5d4bc83ec2ad4fbee2061ca417c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd085665223967ee005aae52f4befa3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed1670c60a76c4226dfcd5c1edd5b0b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. What do you think of U.S. stocks in 2022? Expected to replicate the trend of 1999-2000</b></p><p><b>(1) Fundamentals seem to be giving way to emotions</b></p><p>As can be seen from the above, the current fundamental characteristics of U.S. stocks are similar to those of the end of 2015 and the end of 2018. Then, with the decline of U.S. economic growth (although the economic growth rate is not bad) and the strengthening of rate hike expectations, U.S. stocks should have similar adjustments from the end of 2015 to the beginning of 2016 or Q4 in 2018. After a decline of about 15%, the Federal Reserve will come forward to suppress rate hike expectations. As rate hike expectations cool down, U.S. stocks stopped falling, stabilized and turned up again. But we talked about a problem in the first part. After the epidemic, the world is likely to be in a small probability interval in the normal distribution. The traditional framework is temporarily no longer suitable for analyzing or explaining the post-epidemic economic and asset price performance. Therefore, we probably can no longer understand the performance of U.S. stocks with this seemingly three-year short-cycle framework.</p><p>Emotions may defeat fundamentals, and U.S. stocks may have a final carnival in 2022. The complexity of the epidemic means that the real interest rate in the United States may be difficult to get out of the low level for the time being, a factor that greatly reduces the opportunity cost for investors. In addition, the repeated fermentation of the epidemic and the current situation of intelligent upgrades have left some Americans with leisure time to participate in US stock (options) trading. Finally, after the epidemic, fiscal transfer payments in the United States covered the vast majority of the middle class, and rising U.S. stocks and housing prices have given positive wealth effects to middle and high-income groups in the United States. Generally speaking, many U.S. investors currently have the money, time and willingness (low opportunity cost) to invest in U.S. stocks.</p><p>If, as predicted in our annual outlook, the Fed's monetary policy is likely to turn dove before the 2022 mid-term elections, then U.S. stocks will gain more upward momentum, and the possibility of final madness cannot be ruled out. Once this is the case, U.S. stocks may replicate the trend of 1999-2000 in 2022, showing the characteristics of accelerated bubbles, and the CAPE of the S&P 500 index may also surpass the pre-Nasdaq crash and hit a record high.</p><p><b>(2) Who was the terminator of the 2000 US stock bubble? Maybe the Federal Reserve</b></p><p>The bursting of the Nasdaq bubble in 2000 was fueled by both fundamental factors and the Federal Reserve. April 2000<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Being convicted of violating the Anti-Monopoly Law [3] is a landmark event. Internet companies began to enter a bubble bursting period, and Internet companies such as Global Communications Company went bankrupt one after another. At the same time, the Federal Reserve resumed its rate hike in June 1999 after a brief interest rate cut during the Asian financial crisis, and launched a one-time rate hike of 50BP in May 2000 after four consecutive rate hike of 25BP each. Combined with Figure 11, it can be seen that with the advancement of the Federal Reserve's rate hike, the net purchase scale of U.S. stocks by overseas investors peaked in February 2000, while the Nasdaq index peaked in early March 2000.</p><p>The bubble process of the Nasdaq index is not the result of economic fundamentals but driven by investor sentiment. The Federal Reserve's repeated rate hike has increased the opportunity cost of investors trading U.S. stocks, and the bubble is automatically burst after the trading volume declines. Going back to the present, if the epidemic repeatedly resonates with the Fed's dove turn, the U.S. stock market in 2022 shows a crazy trend similar to 1999-2000, then once the Fed quickly rate hike the U.S. stock market after the mid-term elections, it is very likely that there will be a larger level of adjustment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7137ac8be289013bc92ab1d13998d46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. How does the prospect of U.S. stocks affect the domestic capital market?</b></p><p>According to the above article, there may be two scenarios for the trend of U.S. stocks in 2022. Scenario 1: Based on fundamental assessments, U.S. stocks will experience a sharp drop of about 15% in Q1 2022. Then rate hike expectations will cool down, and U.S. stocks will stop falling and stabilize and turn up. In this case, due to the limited adjustment range and short time of U.S. stocks, the risk appetite of A-shares may be constrained in the short term, but the overall impact is limited. Scenario 2: From the emotional assessment, the U.S. stock market may usher in the final madness after the epidemic in 2022, replicating the bubble process of 1999-2000. After the mid-term elections, as the Fed's rate hike accelerates, U.S. stocks may usher in a larger level of adjustment. Under this circumstance, the trend of U.S. stocks before the U.S. mid-term elections, especially in the first half of 2022, will boost global risk appetite and form a positive sentiment for A-shares. However, after the mid-term elections, this variable will also have a negative impact on domestic output.</p><p>At present, the probability of scenario two is beginning to be higher than that of scenario one.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571618842096","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What do you think of U.S. stocks in 2022? Expected to replicate the trend of 1999-2000</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat do you think of U.S. stocks in 2022? Expected to replicate the trend of 1999-2000\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">静观金融</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The extreme macro background after the epidemic caused many assets to \"derail\". 1) The impact of the epidemic on US stocks is far more complicated than expected. We had predicted that the day of herd immunity in the United States would be when U.S. stocks would fall.</b>After herd immunity, the United States will end its easing policy, and the upward movement of the real interest rate center will pose a threat to highly valued U.S. stocks. However, the epidemic is still uncertain, and the real interest rate in the United States is still at an extremely low level, which has boosted the valuation of U.S. stocks.<b>2) The trend of many assets after the epidemic has deviated from the normal track, which may indicate that the traditional framework is temporarily not suitable for analyzing the post-epidemic economic and asset price performance.</b>The trend of Hang Seng Index and LME copper shows a long-term positive correlation, and the two diverge after the epidemic; The ratio of developed MSCI to emerging MSCI is also positively correlated with the trend of the US Dollar Index, and the two also deviate after the epidemic. Before the Federal Reserve's rate hike, the difference between 10Y and 2Y U.S. bond yields would both hit 2%. At the end of last year, rate hike was expected to be strong, but the high point of the long-term and short-term U.S. bond spread in 2021 was only 1.58%.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Fundamentals are similar to the end of 2018; Risk appetite is similar to that of early 1999. 1) The current fundamentals of U.S. stocks are similar to 2015Q4 and 2018Q4.</b>There is a similar macro background behind the adjustment of US stocks in 2015Q4 and 2018Q4: the economic slowdown superimposed on strong rate hike expectations. Similar at the moment. The U.S. economic growth rate in 2022Q1 is likely to be lower than that in 2021Q4; In December, the FOMC and the Federal Reserve accelerated Taper and gave forward-looking guidance for three rate hike this year.<b>2) The current risk appetite of U.S. stocks is similar to that of early 1999.</b>The current S&P 500 CAPE is 39.98 times, which is only lower than before and after the burst of the Nasdaq bubble.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>After the crisis, the U.S. stock market stood out, and a large influx of funds accelerated the bubble of the U.S. stock market. Similarly, a large amount of funds poured into the U.S. stock market after the epidemic. As of the end of October, the trading volume of U.S. individual stock options was close to six times that before the epidemic. After the epidemic, personal savings in the United States increased by US $2.48 trillion. This factor may continue to support the trading enthusiasm of individual investors.</p><p><b>What do you think of U.S. stocks in 2022? It is expected to replicate the trend of 1999-2000. 1) It is not ruled out that the US stock market will experience the final madness after the epidemic.</b>Before the end of the epidemic, many American investors had the money, time and willingness (extremely low opportunity cost) to invest in US stocks. If the Fed turns dove this year, U.S. stocks will gain more upward momentum.<b>2) Who was the terminator of the 2000 US stock bubble? Maybe the Federal Reserve.</b>The Federal Reserve restarted its rate hike in June 1999, and the net purchase of U.S. stocks by overseas investors peaked in February 2000, while the Nasdaq index peaked the following month. Going back to the present, if the epidemic repeatedly resonates with the Fed's dovish turn, the U.S. stock market in 2022 will show a crazy trend similar to 1999-2000. After the mid-term elections, once the Fed rapidly rate hike the U.S. stock market, it is very likely that there will be a larger level of adjustment.</p><p><b>How does the outlook for U.S. stocks affect the domestic capital market? There may be two scenarios for the trend of U.S. stocks in 2022. The probability of Scenario 2 begins to be higher than Scenario 1. Scenario 1:</b>According to fundamental assessments, U.S. stocks will experience a sharp decline of about 15% in Q1 2022. Then rate hike is expected to cool down, and U.S. stocks will stop falling and stabilize and turn up. This situation may restrict the risk appetite of A shares in the short term, but the impact is limited.<b>Scenario 2:</b>From the emotional assessment, U.S. stocks may usher in the final madness after the epidemic in 2022. After the mid-term elections, as the Federal Reserve's rate hike accelerates, U.S. stocks may usher in a larger level of adjustment. Under this circumstance, the impact of U.S. stocks on A-shares will be more positive in 2022H1, and more negative after the mid-term elections.</p><p><b>1. The extreme macro background after the epidemic caused many assets to \"derail\"</b></p><p><b>(1) The impact of the epidemic on US stocks is far more complicated than expected</b></p><p>We had predicted that the day of herd immunity in the United States would be when U.S. stocks would fall. The logic is very simple. On the one hand, once herd immunity is achieved, the United States will end its loose fiscal and monetary policies, and even the Biden administration will most likely do its best to fulfill its tax increase promise and constrain the EPS of U.S. listed companies in order to win the 2022 mid-term elections. On the other hand, it can be seen from Figure 1-2 that the real interest rate in the United States (10-year TIPS yield) is driven by the epidemic. The real interest rate center continues to move up, and the superimposed high inflation expectations will inevitably push up the 10-year U.S. bond yield, posing a threat to highly valued U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/475b8f183356a6bf605bac05c8d0106b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/625e17cde63f029306013605ca8037f6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>But in fact, the epidemic situation is more complicated than expected. Judging from the vaccination rate and the diagnosis rate, the United States may be considered or close to a herd immunity status, but the transition from Delta to Omicron proves that the epidemic is still uncertain. This uncertainty may have affected the U.S. job market in three ways: 1) The epidemic has restricted cross-border activities and hindered the recovery of foreign labor in the United States; 2) The employment participation rate of groups aged 54 and above is difficult to rebound; 3）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Upgrade acceleration. These unprecedented changes break away from the traditional cyclical framework and exacerbate the uncertainty of the economic outlook in the United States and even the world. Under the resonance of the uncertainty of the epidemic and the uncertainty of the economic outlook, the real interest rate in the United States is still at a very low level, which has greatly boosted the valuation of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a2cb5d1dd9c3ed43ba290a5681ea5bb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8dcd12954b0a287d214c960f3b252c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The trend of many assets after the epidemic has deviated from the normal track</b></p><p>The epidemic not only had an unconventional impact on U.S. stocks, but also caused many assets to show extreme trends. As shown in Figure 3, in the long run, the Hang Seng Index and the LME copper trend show positive correlation characteristics, but the deviation between the two is obvious after the epidemic; Looking further, as shown in Figure 4, the ratio of Hang Seng Index to LME copper price shows a positive correlation with the US Dollar Index, but the two diverged after the epidemic. As shown in Figure 5, in the long run, the ratio of the MSCI Developed Markets Index to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is also positively correlated with the trend of the US Dollar Index. However, after the epidemic, the former hit a new high after 2003, while the latter moved downward. Furthermore, combined with Figure 6, it can be seen that from 1990 to before the Federal Reserve's rate hike (or rate hike expectations) before the epidemic, the difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields will hit 2% (above), while December At the interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve has given forward-looking guidance for rate hike three times this year, but the high point of the difference between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. bond yields in 2021 is only 1.58% (March 20).</p><p>We will explain the reasons for the abnormal performance of the above-mentioned assets one by one in subsequent reports, but they are all sending the same signal: after the epidemic, the world is in a small probability interval in a normal distribution, and the traditional framework is no longer suitable for analyzing or explaining the post-epidemic economy. and asset price performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f17d83beaec053ffdc99dddfd394d0d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/017c371dcb6a589b77a991dca9419481\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. U.S. stocks: The fundamentals are similar to those at the end of 2018; Risk appetite resembles early 1999</b></p><p><b>(1) The current fundamentals of U.S. stocks are similar to those at the end of 2015 and 2018</b></p><p>In our report on November 26, 2021, \"Will the U.S. Stock Correction in Late 2015 and Late 2018 Repeat?\", we pointed out that the S&P 500 index fell 13.3% between November 3, 2015 and February 11, 2016, and 19.6% between October 1, 2018 and December 24, 2018. There is a similar macro background behind these two adjustments: the economic slowdown superimposed on too strong rate hike expectations. In Q4 2015, the real GDP of the United States slowed to an annualized rate of 0.6%. In this context, the Federal Reserve not only landed rate hike boots at the December 2015 interest rate meeting, but also conveyed to the market the forward-looking guidance that the Federal Reserve will rate hike four times in 2016. Similar to the situation in Q4 2015, the real GDP of the United States fell to an annualized rate of 0.9% in Q4 2018. At the same time, the Federal Reserve made four rate hike in 2018, and the dot plot of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September 2018 suggested that there would still be 2-3 rate hike in 2019, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose again on November 8. to 3.24%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6dccf7b610da17e37c897c6ddda2946\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94a8c8ea2cd483b7f0899bdc9717e3bf\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e0f4a315983398cd00d6983df8c8677\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>At present, the fundamental characteristics of U.S. stocks are very similar to those at the end of 2015 and 2018. 1) The U.S. economic growth rate in 2022Q1 is likely to be significantly lower than that in 2021Q4, which is very similar to that in 2015Q4 and 2018Q4.</b>According to the economic growth rate for the whole year of 2021 given by the Federal Reserve at the December interest rate meeting, the annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in 2021Q4 may be 6.8%. However, in our annual outlook, we predict that the U.S. economic growth rate in 2022 will be 3.7%, and the U.S. economic growth rate in 2022 given at the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting will be 4.0%. In addition, the U.S. Q1 economic growth rate has only accounted for 1/3 of the annual growth rate, and the real GDP growth rate of the United States from 1997 to 2000 was higher than 4% for four consecutive years, but the situation that the annualized rate of real GDP in Q1 exceeded 6.8% dates back to 1984. It can be seen that the annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in Q1 2022 is likely to be significantly lower than that in Q4 2021.<b>2) The Federal Reserve released extremely hawkish monetary policy signals, similar to those at the end of 2015 and September 2018.</b>At the interest rate meeting in December 2021, the Federal Reserve announced that it will accelerate the reduction of QE starting from January this year, from the current monthly reduction in the purchase of US $10 billion in U.S. debt and US $5 billion in MBS, to the monthly reduction in the purchase of US $20 billion in U.S. debt and US $10 billion in MBS until the end of this round of QE around March this year. In addition, Fed officials also conveyed the message that there may be three rate hike in 2022 through dot plots.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ccddb9e3bdc5c79f134c3f2032ee0f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The current risk appetite of U.S. stocks is similar to that of early 1999</b></p><p>We have always believed that high valuations are major risks to U.S. stocks, but the bubble is likely to be a complicated process from emergence to bursting. For example, as of December 31, 2021, the 10-year Schiller cycle-adjusted P/E (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index was 39.98 times, the highest since October 2000, and only from January 1999 to September 2000 in history. The level of this indicator during the month was higher than the current level. In other words, the current risk appetite of U.S. stocks measured by CAPE is similar to that from the end of 1998 to the beginning of 1999. So how did the bubble process of the U.S. stock market in 1999-2000 come about? Assessing this process from the emotional side is related to the Asian financial crisis.</p><p>In the 1990s, there was the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the bursting of Japan's economic bubble, and then the Asian financial crisis. The United States gradually stood out because of its economic momentum of \"high growth and low inflation\". The certainty of the United States contrasts with the uncertainty outside the United States and drives international investors' enthusiasm for U.S. stocks to continue to rise. As shown in Figure 11, the influx of a large amount of funds into U.S. stocks from 1999 to 2000 caused a sharp rise in the risk appetite and valuation of U.S. stocks. The bubble process accelerated.</p><p>Similar to that time, an extraordinary amount of funds poured into the U.S. stock market after the epidemic. The difference is that the influx of these funds after the epidemic is not similar to the group behavior of global investors after the Asian financial crisis, but that fiscal transfer payments have greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of local investors for trading U.S. stocks. As shown in Figure 12, as of the end of October 2021, the nominal value of U.S. stock options trading volume (US $1.19 trillion) was close to 6 times that before the epidemic (US $0.22 trillion). Although the United States has completely ended fiscal transfer payments on September 6, 2021, fiscal transfer payments have increased personal savings in the United States by US $2.48 trillion since the beginning of 2020. This money still supports individual U.S. investors to boost the risk appetite of U.S. stocks by trading individual stock options.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01507e28faf0b01ac50161cec9df5707\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47dba5d4bc83ec2ad4fbee2061ca417c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd085665223967ee005aae52f4befa3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed1670c60a76c4226dfcd5c1edd5b0b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. What do you think of U.S. stocks in 2022? Expected to replicate the trend of 1999-2000</b></p><p><b>(1) Fundamentals seem to be giving way to emotions</b></p><p>As can be seen from the above, the current fundamental characteristics of U.S. stocks are similar to those of the end of 2015 and the end of 2018. Then, with the decline of U.S. economic growth (although the economic growth rate is not bad) and the strengthening of rate hike expectations, U.S. stocks should have similar adjustments from the end of 2015 to the beginning of 2016 or Q4 in 2018. After a decline of about 15%, the Federal Reserve will come forward to suppress rate hike expectations. As rate hike expectations cool down, U.S. stocks stopped falling, stabilized and turned up again. But we talked about a problem in the first part. After the epidemic, the world is likely to be in a small probability interval in the normal distribution. The traditional framework is temporarily no longer suitable for analyzing or explaining the post-epidemic economic and asset price performance. Therefore, we probably can no longer understand the performance of U.S. stocks with this seemingly three-year short-cycle framework.</p><p>Emotions may defeat fundamentals, and U.S. stocks may have a final carnival in 2022. The complexity of the epidemic means that the real interest rate in the United States may be difficult to get out of the low level for the time being, a factor that greatly reduces the opportunity cost for investors. In addition, the repeated fermentation of the epidemic and the current situation of intelligent upgrades have left some Americans with leisure time to participate in US stock (options) trading. Finally, after the epidemic, fiscal transfer payments in the United States covered the vast majority of the middle class, and rising U.S. stocks and housing prices have given positive wealth effects to middle and high-income groups in the United States. Generally speaking, many U.S. investors currently have the money, time and willingness (low opportunity cost) to invest in U.S. stocks.</p><p>If, as predicted in our annual outlook, the Fed's monetary policy is likely to turn dove before the 2022 mid-term elections, then U.S. stocks will gain more upward momentum, and the possibility of final madness cannot be ruled out. Once this is the case, U.S. stocks may replicate the trend of 1999-2000 in 2022, showing the characteristics of accelerated bubbles, and the CAPE of the S&P 500 index may also surpass the pre-Nasdaq crash and hit a record high.</p><p><b>(2) Who was the terminator of the 2000 US stock bubble? Maybe the Federal Reserve</b></p><p>The bursting of the Nasdaq bubble in 2000 was fueled by both fundamental factors and the Federal Reserve. April 2000<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Being convicted of violating the Anti-Monopoly Law [3] is a landmark event. Internet companies began to enter a bubble bursting period, and Internet companies such as Global Communications Company went bankrupt one after another. At the same time, the Federal Reserve resumed its rate hike in June 1999 after a brief interest rate cut during the Asian financial crisis, and launched a one-time rate hike of 50BP in May 2000 after four consecutive rate hike of 25BP each. Combined with Figure 11, it can be seen that with the advancement of the Federal Reserve's rate hike, the net purchase scale of U.S. stocks by overseas investors peaked in February 2000, while the Nasdaq index peaked in early March 2000.</p><p>The bubble process of the Nasdaq index is not the result of economic fundamentals but driven by investor sentiment. The Federal Reserve's repeated rate hike has increased the opportunity cost of investors trading U.S. stocks, and the bubble is automatically burst after the trading volume declines. Going back to the present, if the epidemic repeatedly resonates with the Fed's dove turn, the U.S. stock market in 2022 shows a crazy trend similar to 1999-2000, then once the Fed quickly rate hike the U.S. stock market after the mid-term elections, it is very likely that there will be a larger level of adjustment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7137ac8be289013bc92ab1d13998d46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. How does the prospect of U.S. stocks affect the domestic capital market?</b></p><p>According to the above article, there may be two scenarios for the trend of U.S. stocks in 2022. Scenario 1: Based on fundamental assessments, U.S. stocks will experience a sharp drop of about 15% in Q1 2022. Then rate hike expectations will cool down, and U.S. stocks will stop falling and stabilize and turn up. In this case, due to the limited adjustment range and short time of U.S. stocks, the risk appetite of A-shares may be constrained in the short term, but the overall impact is limited. Scenario 2: From the emotional assessment, the U.S. stock market may usher in the final madness after the epidemic in 2022, replicating the bubble process of 1999-2000. After the mid-term elections, as the Fed's rate hike accelerates, U.S. stocks may usher in a larger level of adjustment. Under this circumstance, the trend of U.S. stocks before the U.S. mid-term elections, especially in the first half of 2022, will boost global risk appetite and form a positive sentiment for A-shares. However, after the mid-term elections, this variable will also have a negative impact on domestic output.</p><p>At present, the probability of scenario two is beginning to be higher than that of scenario one.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FAjZQnMc8yJfZo5Xkj7Chg\">静观金融</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d8134b127d4d60719f96ba041ac4ad","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","CAPE":"Shiller CAPE U.S. Equities ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FAjZQnMc8yJfZo5Xkj7Chg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200423912","content_text":"疫后极端的宏观背景引发众多资产“脱轨”。1）疫情对美股的影响远比预期更复杂。我们曾预计美国群体免疫之日就是美股下跌之时。群体免疫后，美国会结束宽松政策，实际利率中枢上移将对高估值美股形成威胁。但疫情仍具不确定性，美国实际利率仍处于极低水平并对美股产生估值提振。2）疫后诸多资产走势脱离了正常轨道或表明传统框架暂不适用于分析疫后经济与资产价格表现。恒生指数与LME铜走势呈现长期正相关特征，疫后二者背离；MSCI发达与MSCI新兴之比同美元指数也是趋势正相关，疫后二者同样背离。此前美联储加息前，10Y与2Y美债收益率差值均会触及2%，去年底加息预期强烈但2021年长短端美债利差高点仅1.58%。美股：基本面类似2018年底；风险偏好酷似1999年初。1）美股当前基本面类似2015Q4及2018Q4。2015Q4与2018Q4美股调整背后有相似的宏观背景：经济放缓叠加强烈的加息预期。目前类似。2022Q1美国经济增速大概率低于2021Q4；12月FOMC美联储提速Taper并给出今年加息3次的前瞻指引。2）美股当前风险偏好酷似1999年初。目前标普500  CAPE为39.98倍，仅低于纳斯达克泡沫破灭前后。亚洲金融危机后，美股一枝独秀，大量资金涌入令美股加速泡沫化。类似地，疫后也有大量资金涌入美股市场。截止10月底美国个股期权成交量接近疫前的6倍。疫后美国个人储蓄多增2.48万亿美元，该因素或将继续支持个人投资者的交易热情。怎么看2022年的美股？有望复制1999-2000年走势。1）不排除美股出现疫后的最后疯狂。疫情结束前众多美国投资者既有钱、又有时间且有意愿（极低的机会成本）进行美股投资。假若今年美联储转鸽，美股将获得更多上行动能。2）谁是2000年美股泡沫的终结者？或许还是美联储。美联储于1999年6月重启加息，海外投资者对美股的净买入规模于2000年2月见顶，而纳斯达克指数次月见顶。回到当下，假若在疫情反复与美联储转鸽共振之下，2022年美股呈现出类似1999-2000年的疯狂走势，中期选举后一旦美联储快速加息美股也极有可能出现较大级别的调整。美股前景如何影响国内资本市场？2022年美股走势或有两种情形，情形二发生的概率开始高于情形一。情形一：由基本面评估2022年Q1美股将迎幅度约为15%左右的急跌，随后加息预期降温、美股止跌企稳转涨。该情形或短期约束A股风险偏好，但影响有限。情形二：由情绪面评估，2022年美股或将迎来疫后的最后疯狂，中期选举后，随着美联储加息提速，美股或将迎来较大级别的调整。该情形下，美股对A股的影响在2022H1较为积极，中期选举后则较为负面。一、疫后极端的宏观背景引发众多资产“脱轨”（一）疫情对美股的影响远比预期更复杂我们曾预计美国群体免疫之日就是美股下跌之时，逻辑非常简单。一方面，一旦实现群体免疫，美国就会结束宽松财政与货币政策，甚至拜登政府大概率会为赢得2022年的中期选举而竭尽全力兑现加税承诺、掣肘美国上市公司EPS。另一方面，由图1-2可知，美国实际利率（10年期TIPS收益率）受疫情驱动，疫情反弹实际利率走低、疫情降温实际利率回升，进而群体免疫后，疫情对美国经济的影响减弱，实际利率中枢不断上移，叠加通胀预期高企必然推升10年期美债收益率，对高估值美股形成威胁。但事实上，疫情变化比预期更为复杂。从疫苗接种率叠加确诊率来看，美国可能已经算是或者接近群体免疫状态，但从Delta到Omicron证明了疫情仍具不确定性。这种不确定性或通过三个方面影响了美国就业市场：1）疫情约束跨境活动并导致美国外籍劳动力恢复受阻；2）54岁及以上群体就业参与率难以回升；3）智能升级加速。这些前所未有的变化脱离了传统周期框架，加剧了美国乃至全球经济前景的不确定性。疫情的不确定性与经济前景的不确定性共振之下，美国实际利率仍处于极低水平，又在极大程度上提振了美股估值。（二）疫后诸多资产走势脱离了正常轨道疫情不仅对美股形成了非常规影响，也令很多资产表现出极端走势。如图3所示，长期看，恒生指数与LME铜走势呈现正相关特征，但疫后二者背离明显；进一步看，如图4所示，恒生指数与LME铜价比值跟美元指数呈现正相关特征，但疫后二者发生了背离。如图5所示，长期看，MSCI发达市场指数与MSCI新兴市场指数之比同美元指数也是趋势正相关，但疫后前者创出2003年后新高、后者则中枢下移。再者，结合图6可知，1990年至疫前美联储历次加息（或者加息预期形成）前，10年期与2年期美债收益率差值均会触及2%（上方），而12月议息会议上美联储已经给出今年加息三次的前瞻指引但2021年10年期与2年期美债收益率差值高点仅为1.58%（3月20日）。上述资产异常表现的缘由我们会在后续报告中一一阐述，但都在释放同一个信号：疫后全球处于正态分布中的小概率区间，传统框架暂时不再适用于分析或解释疫后经济与资产价格表现。二、美股：基本面类似2018年底；风险偏好酷似1999年初（一）美股当前基本面类似2015年底及2018年底我们在2021年11月26日报告《2015年底与2018年底的美股调整会重现吗？》中指出，2015年11月3日至2016年2月11日期间标普500指数下挫13.3%，2018年10月1日至12月24日期间标普500指数下挫19.6%。这两次调整背后存在相似的宏观背景：经济放缓叠加过于强烈的加息预期。2015年Q4美国实际GDP环比折年率放缓至0.6%。在此背景下，美联储不仅在2015年12月议息会议上落地了加息靴子，并且向市场传递了2016年美联储还将加息4次的前瞻指引。与2015年Q4情况类似，2018年Q4美国实际GDP环比折年率降至0.9%。与此同时，美联储在2018年加息4次，且2018年9月美联储议息会议点阵图暗示2019年仍有2-3次加息，10年期美债收益率又在11月8日升至3.24%。而目前美股基本面特征与2015年底及2018年底极其相似。1）2022Q1美国经济增速大概率显著低于2021Q4，与2015Q4及2018Q4极像。按照12月议息会议中美联储给出2021年全年经济增速倒推，2021Q4美国实际GDP环比折年率或为6.8%。但我们在年度展望中预计2022年美国经济增速为3.7%、美联储12月议息会议中给出的2022年经济增速为4.0%，此外，过去上世纪90年代以来美国Q1经济增速高于全年增速的年份仅占1/3，且1997-2000年美国实际GDP增速曾连续4年高于4%，但Q1实际GDP环比折年率超过6.8%的情形还要追溯到1984年。可见，2022年Q1美国实际GDP环比折年率大概率显著低于2021年Q4。2）美联储释放了极其鹰派的货币政策信号，与2015年底及2018年9月类似。2021年12月议息会议中，美联储宣布从今年1月开始加速削减QE，由当前每月减少购买100亿美元美债与50亿美元MBS，提速至每月减少购买200亿美元美债与100亿美元MBS直至今年3月附近结束本轮QE。此外，美联储官员还通过点阵图传递了2022年或将加息3次的信息。（二）美股当前的风险偏好则酷似1999年初我们一直认为高估值对于美股而言是重大风险，但是泡沫从出现到破裂很可能也是复杂过程。比如，截至2021年12月31日标普500指数10年期席勒周期调整市盈率（CAPE）为39.98倍，为2000年10月以来最高，且历史上仅1999年1月至2000年9月期间该指标水平高于当前。换言之，以CAPE衡量当前美股风险偏好酷似1998年底至1999年初。那么1999-2000年美股的泡沫化过程是如何炼成的？从情绪面评估这一过程与亚洲金融危机有关。上世纪90年代先有前苏联解体、日本经济泡沫破灭，后有亚洲金融危机，美国则因经济始终保持“高增长、低通胀”势头逐步一枝独秀。美国的确定性与美国外部的不确定性形成反差并推动国际投资者对美股的热情不断高涨，如图11所示，1999-2000年大量资金涌入美股使得美股风险偏好与估值急剧上升，泡沫化过程加速。与彼时类似，疫后也有超乎寻常的大量资金涌入美股市场。差别在于疫后这些资金的涌入并非类似亚洲金融危机后的全球投资者抱团行为，而是财政转移支付令居民获得大量无成本资金以及疫后民众获得大量空闲共振之下极大地刺激了美国本土投资者对于交易美股的热情。如图12所示，截止2021年10月底美股个股期权成交量名义值（1.19万亿美元）接近疫前的6倍（0.22万亿美元）。尽管2021年9月6日美国已经彻底结束财政转移支付，但财政转移支付行为令2020年初至今美国个人储蓄多增了2.48万亿美元。这笔钱仍然支持美国个人投资者通过交易个股期权推升美股风险偏好。三、怎么看2022年的美股？有望复制1999-2000年走势（一）基本面似乎正在让位于情绪面由前文可知，当前美股基本面特征类似2015年底与2018年底，那么随着美国经济增速下台阶（尽管经济增速并不差）以及加息预期的强化，美股理应出现类似2015年底至2016年初或者2018年Q4的调整。在出现15%左右的下挫后，美联储将出面打压加息预期，随着加息预期降温，美股止跌企稳且重新转涨。但我们在第一部分就谈到一个问题，疫后全球很可能处于正态分布中的小概率区间，传统框架暂时不再适用于分析或解释疫后经济与资产价格表现。因此，我们大抵已经无法用这种看似三年一轮回的短周期框架理解美股表现了。情绪面可能会战胜基本面，2022年美股或许会有最后的狂欢。疫情的复杂性意味着美国实际利率或暂时难以脱离低位，该因素极大地降低了投资者的机会成本。此外，反复发酵的疫情以及智能升级的现状令部分美国人仍有闲暇参与美股（期权）交易。最后，疫后美国的财政转移支付覆盖了绝大多数中产，而美股与房价上涨又令美国中高收入群体获得了正向的财富效应。总体而言，当前众多美国投资者既有钱、又有时间且有意愿（较低的机会成本）进行美股投资。假若如我们年度展望中所预计的，2022年中期选举前美联储货币政策大概率转鸽，那么美股将获得更多上行动能，不排除最后疯狂的可能性。一旦如此，2022年美股可能会复制1999-2000年走势，呈现出加速泡沫化特征，标普500指数的CAPE亦有可能超越纳斯达克崩盘前并创出历史新高。（二）谁是2000年美股泡沫的终结者？或许还是美联储2000年纳斯达克泡沫破灭既有基本面因素也有美联储推波助澜。2000年4月以微软被判违反《反垄断法》[3]为标志性事件，互联网企业开始进入泡沫破灭期，环球通讯公司等互联网企业相继破产倒闭。与此同时，美联储在亚洲金融危机期间短暂降息后于1999年6月重新开始加息，且在连续四次每次加息25BP后于2000年5月一次性加息50BP。结合图11可知，随着美联储加息推进，海外投资者对美股的净买入规模于2000年2月见顶，而纳斯达克指数于2000年3月初见顶。纳斯达克指数泡沫化过程并非经济基本面推动的结果而是由投资者情绪助推，美联储多次加息提高了投资者交易美股的机会成本，交易量下滑后泡沫被自动戳破。回到当下，假若在疫情反复与美联储转鸽共振下，2022年美股呈现出类似1999-2000年的疯狂走势，那么中期选举后一旦美联储快速加息美股也极有可能出现较大级别的调整。四、美股前景如何影响国内资本市场？根据前文，2022年美股走势或有两种情形。情形一：由基本面评估2022年Q1美股将迎幅度约为15%左右的急跌，随后加息预期降温、美股止跌企稳转涨。在该情形下，由于美股调整幅度有限且时间较短，因此或短期约束A股风险偏好，但整体影响有限。情形二：由情绪面评估，2022年美股或将迎来疫后的最后疯狂，复制1999-2000年的泡沫化过程。中期选举后，随着美联储加息提速，美股或将迎来较大级别的调整。该情形下，美国中期选举前特别是2022年上半年美股走势将提振全球风险偏好，对A股形成情绪面利好，但中期选举后该变量对国内也将产出负面影响。目前看，情形二发生的概率开始高于情形一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZFmain":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.6,"NQmain":0.9,"CAPE":1,"ESmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,".DJI":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009791653,"gmtCreate":1640788136944,"gmtModify":1676533541492,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7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07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147384376","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ② U.S. oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both PMI indicators in the United States fell to nearly two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Fund doubled its bet on short European stocks to US $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most U.S. technology stocks rose</p><p>U.S. stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>U.S. tech stocks closed mostly higher, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 2.26%; The concept of economic restart has mostly weakened,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Fell 0.92%, United Airlines fell 2.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Fell 2.33%. In addition, Internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors all rose sharply.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, led by the new energy vehicle sector</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, led by the new energy vehicle sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Closed up 6.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Dada rose more than 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose more than 5%, Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Powder sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rose more than 1%, and just ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Closed down nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX index fell 1.72%</p><p>European stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, Britain's FTSE index fell 1%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.8% on Thursday, the lowest closing price since May 10</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to close at $104.27 a barrel, the lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are worried that aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a recession, which could dampen fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, closing down for the fourth consecutive day</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to close at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The use of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hits a new record of US $2.285 trillion</p><p>The use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. 89 participants spent $2.285 trillion, exceeding the previous high of $2.259 trillion hit on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change in line with Fed policy.</p><p>2. Powell reiterates \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, saying recession is not inevitable</p><p>While Democrats warned of recession risks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation was \"unconditional.\" Another Fed governor supports another 75 basis point interest rate hike next month. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"The overheating of our labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we are still far from the inflation target right now. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation back to 2%, because if we don't do so, we won't achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Fed still wants a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be more difficult.</p><p>3. Fed Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on the current inflation data, I expect a rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting to be appropriate, as long as the data supports it, in the next few meetings. rate hike should be at least 50 basis points. Depending on how the economy develops, further increases in the federal funds target rate range may need to be needed afterwards.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States are climbing again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The previous week, the interest rate recorded its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Falling U.S. corporate activity, soaring inflation causes factory orders and production to shrink</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step back in June, as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand for services and caused factory orders and production to shrink directly. The preliminary value of the U.S. composite output index for June released by S&P Global on Thursday slipped 2.4 points to 51.2. While still above 50, this is the second-lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p>6. Is the U.S. economy in full swing? Both PMI indicators fell near two-year lows</p><p>Financial Analytics Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by (S&P Global) on Thursday (June 23rd) showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the United States both experienced a larger-than-expected decline in June. Specific data shows that the initial value of U.S. manufacturing PMI in June recorded 52.4, a new 23-month low, far lower than market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The initial value of the manufacturing output index recorded 49.6, a 24-month low, far lower than last month's 55.2. The initial value of the business activity index (service PMI) in June recorded 51.6, significantly lower than market expectations of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, setting a new five-month low and falling below 52 for the third time since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturns a New York gun law that will allow more people to legally hold guns</p><p>On June 23rd, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York in a major ruling on gun rights, which will allow more people to legally hold guns on the streets. The justices voted 6-3 to overturn a restrictive New York gun law that required people to prove they specifically need to carry firearms in order to get a license to carry them in public. The justices said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to \"keep and bear weapons.\" It is reported that California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island all have similar laws and may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. U.S. senators sent a letter to Biden saying that he should consider restricting crude oil exports</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators urged President Joe Biden to limit crude oil exports to ensure oil supplies to the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin and Jeanne Shaheen said the \"severe spike\" in energy prices gave reason to use this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil business executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigation Committee held its fifth public hearing on the Capitol riot</p><p>On June 23, local time, the Special Investigation Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held its fifth public hearing on the investigation of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigation committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to \"legalize\" his election lies and put pressure on multiple officials. White House lawyer Eric Hirschman testified that Jeffrey Clark, a former senior Justice Department official, had indicated that he wanted to use Justice Department power to assist Trump's plan.</p><p>10. Omicron BA.4/5 is coming fiercely: repeated infection of the mutant strain with the strongest immune escape ability</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron's new mutant strains BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the United States. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is by far the Novel Coronavirus variant with the strongest immune escape ability. It can reinfect and walk through the lungs. These characteristics mean that they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Fund will double its bet on shorting European stocks to US $10.5 billion</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, and its bearish strength on stocks in the region reached its highest level in two years. The world's largest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>And SAP's personal bets exceed $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion against European stocks. The investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML and a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML, according to data compiled based on regulatory filings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>About $752 million in short bets. The number of European companies it has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs</p><p>According to the Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to rubles to levy grain tariffs and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates may reach 1.5%-2% within a year</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Slovakian central bank, said that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points in the next 12 months, bringing interest rates to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. \"It all depends on upcoming data.\" Kazimir said some eurozone countries could fall into a \"technical recession\".</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that given that Ukraine and Moldova will obtain candidate country status, the EU should prepare for enlargement. Scholz stressed that in order for a larger alliance to work, more decisions should be adopted on the principle of majority vote instead of requiring unanimity. At present, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies that they do not approve of with one vote. Previously, due to the opposition of Hungary and other countries, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high, Mexican central bank announces a rate hike of 75 basis points</p><p>The central bank of Mexico accelerated the pace of raising interest rates on Thursday after data showed that prices rose year-on-year in early June to a 21-year high. Mexico's central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. The rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted inflation targeting in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank generally tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The EU approves Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called this a historic moment and marked a crucial step for Ukraine towards the EU. European Commission President von der Leyen said that this decision not only strengthens the strength of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision of the EU summit was made at the proposal of the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's obtaining EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on official social media that Ukraine has obtained EU candidate status, saying that this is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU, and expressed his gratitude to EU leaders for their support.</p><p>3. U.S. official: The United States will provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23, local time, U.S. officials stated that the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military assistance, including the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket system, ammunition and other supplies. It is reported that the U.S. government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia that it may trigger energy market collapse</p><p>Germany warned that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe could trigger a collapse in the energy market, which was as influential as the financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest \"alert\" level, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that losses for energy suppliers are increasing day by day as they are forced to make up for lost gas at high prices, which has a negative impact on the local utility industry. There may be spillover risks for its users, including consumers and businesses. Habeck said at a press conference in Berlin, \"If the losses are too big for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Affected by sanctions against Russia, Japan's construction timber supply is difficult</p><p>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to cause chaos in the international industrial chain and supply chain, it has brought more and more impact to many countries around the world. Because of the frequent earthquakes in Japan, many buildings are made of wood, so the demand for wood is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large amounts of Russian timber, which had a great impact on the supply of Japanese timber.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will fully withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sports brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday local time that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after three months of suspension of Russian operations. The analysis pointed out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will have little substantial impact. The combined revenue from Ukraine and Russia is less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Says congressional delays threaten to shrink Ohio plant plans</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS chip bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company doesn't know exactly when there will be results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled to be held on July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that it would postpone the groundbreaking time.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers hit hard! FDA bans JUUL products from entering the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban Juul e-cigarettes from being sold or distributed in the U.S. market, with regulators saying it lacks \"sufficient evidence\" to show that the sale of the product is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he did not approve of the FDA's judgment and would exhaust regulatory and related legal options and seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion in tort damages</p><p>On Thursday, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals made a ruling to revoke the lower court's compensation in support of Centripetal's patent infringement case against Cisco. The reason is that the judge Morgan who heard the case did not take recusal measures on the premise that his wife held Cisco shares. At that time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement compensation, plus patent licensing fees, and the overall compensation would exceed $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix cuts 300 jobs as revenue growth slows</a></p><p>According to local media reports, streaming media giant Netflix recently laid off 300 employees after laying off 150 employees last month, equivalent to about 3% of the company's employees. Subsequently, the company also confirmed this matter and said that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. The U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives of seven major oil companies</p><p>According to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth largest refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>) Wilmington Refinery reported an unexpected fire on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-24 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ② U.S. oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both PMI indicators in the United States fell to nearly two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Fund doubled its bet on short European stocks to US $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most U.S. technology stocks rose</p><p>U.S. stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>U.S. tech stocks closed mostly higher, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 2.26%; The concept of economic restart has mostly weakened,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Fell 0.92%, United Airlines fell 2.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Fell 2.33%. In addition, Internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors all rose sharply.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, led by the new energy vehicle sector</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, led by the new energy vehicle sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Closed up 6.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Dada rose more than 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose more than 5%, Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Powder sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rose more than 1%, and just ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Closed down nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX index fell 1.72%</p><p>European stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, Britain's FTSE index fell 1%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.8% on Thursday, the lowest closing price since May 10</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to close at $104.27 a barrel, the lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are worried that aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a recession, which could dampen fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, closing down for the fourth consecutive day</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to close at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The use of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hits a new record of US $2.285 trillion</p><p>The use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. 89 participants spent $2.285 trillion, exceeding the previous high of $2.259 trillion hit on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change in line with Fed policy.</p><p>2. Powell reiterates \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, saying recession is not inevitable</p><p>While Democrats warned of recession risks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation was \"unconditional.\" Another Fed governor supports another 75 basis point interest rate hike next month. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"The overheating of our labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we are still far from the inflation target right now. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation back to 2%, because if we don't do so, we won't achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Fed still wants a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be more difficult.</p><p>3. Fed Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on the current inflation data, I expect a rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting to be appropriate, as long as the data supports it, in the next few meetings. rate hike should be at least 50 basis points. Depending on how the economy develops, further increases in the federal funds target rate range may need to be needed afterwards.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States are climbing again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The previous week, the interest rate recorded its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Falling U.S. corporate activity, soaring inflation causes factory orders and production to shrink</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step back in June, as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand for services and caused factory orders and production to shrink directly. The preliminary value of the U.S. composite output index for June released by S&P Global on Thursday slipped 2.4 points to 51.2. While still above 50, this is the second-lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p>6. Is the U.S. economy in full swing? Both PMI indicators fell near two-year lows</p><p>Financial Analytics Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by (S&P Global) on Thursday (June 23rd) showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the United States both experienced a larger-than-expected decline in June. Specific data shows that the initial value of U.S. manufacturing PMI in June recorded 52.4, a new 23-month low, far lower than market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The initial value of the manufacturing output index recorded 49.6, a 24-month low, far lower than last month's 55.2. The initial value of the business activity index (service PMI) in June recorded 51.6, significantly lower than market expectations of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, setting a new five-month low and falling below 52 for the third time since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturns a New York gun law that will allow more people to legally hold guns</p><p>On June 23rd, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York in a major ruling on gun rights, which will allow more people to legally hold guns on the streets. The justices voted 6-3 to overturn a restrictive New York gun law that required people to prove they specifically need to carry firearms in order to get a license to carry them in public. The justices said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to \"keep and bear weapons.\" It is reported that California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island all have similar laws and may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. U.S. senators sent a letter to Biden saying that he should consider restricting crude oil exports</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators urged President Joe Biden to limit crude oil exports to ensure oil supplies to the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin and Jeanne Shaheen said the \"severe spike\" in energy prices gave reason to use this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil business executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigation Committee held its fifth public hearing on the Capitol riot</p><p>On June 23, local time, the Special Investigation Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held its fifth public hearing on the investigation of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigation committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to \"legalize\" his election lies and put pressure on multiple officials. White House lawyer Eric Hirschman testified that Jeffrey Clark, a former senior Justice Department official, had indicated that he wanted to use Justice Department power to assist Trump's plan.</p><p>10. Omicron BA.4/5 is coming fiercely: repeated infection of the mutant strain with the strongest immune escape ability</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron's new mutant strains BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the United States. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is by far the Novel Coronavirus variant with the strongest immune escape ability. It can reinfect and walk through the lungs. These characteristics mean that they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Fund will double its bet on shorting European stocks to US $10.5 billion</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, and its bearish strength on stocks in the region reached its highest level in two years. The world's largest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>And SAP's personal bets exceed $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion against European stocks. The investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML and a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML, according to data compiled based on regulatory filings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>About $752 million in short bets. The number of European companies it has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs</p><p>According to the Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to rubles to levy grain tariffs and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates may reach 1.5%-2% within a year</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Slovakian central bank, said that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points in the next 12 months, bringing interest rates to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. \"It all depends on upcoming data.\" Kazimir said some eurozone countries could fall into a \"technical recession\".</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that given that Ukraine and Moldova will obtain candidate country status, the EU should prepare for enlargement. Scholz stressed that in order for a larger alliance to work, more decisions should be adopted on the principle of majority vote instead of requiring unanimity. At present, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies that they do not approve of with one vote. Previously, due to the opposition of Hungary and other countries, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high, Mexican central bank announces a rate hike of 75 basis points</p><p>The central bank of Mexico accelerated the pace of raising interest rates on Thursday after data showed that prices rose year-on-year in early June to a 21-year high. Mexico's central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. The rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted inflation targeting in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank generally tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The EU approves Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called this a historic moment and marked a crucial step for Ukraine towards the EU. European Commission President von der Leyen said that this decision not only strengthens the strength of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision of the EU summit was made at the proposal of the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's obtaining EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on official social media that Ukraine has obtained EU candidate status, saying that this is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU, and expressed his gratitude to EU leaders for their support.</p><p>3. U.S. official: The United States will provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23, local time, U.S. officials stated that the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military assistance, including the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket system, ammunition and other supplies. It is reported that the U.S. government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia that it may trigger energy market collapse</p><p>Germany warned that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe could trigger a collapse in the energy market, which was as influential as the financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest \"alert\" level, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that losses for energy suppliers are increasing day by day as they are forced to make up for lost gas at high prices, which has a negative impact on the local utility industry. There may be spillover risks for its users, including consumers and businesses. Habeck said at a press conference in Berlin, \"If the losses are too big for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Affected by sanctions against Russia, Japan's construction timber supply is difficult</p><p>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to cause chaos in the international industrial chain and supply chain, it has brought more and more impact to many countries around the world. Because of the frequent earthquakes in Japan, many buildings are made of wood, so the demand for wood is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large amounts of Russian timber, which had a great impact on the supply of Japanese timber.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will fully withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sports brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday local time that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after three months of suspension of Russian operations. The analysis pointed out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will have little substantial impact. The combined revenue from Ukraine and Russia is less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Says congressional delays threaten to shrink Ohio plant plans</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS chip bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company doesn't know exactly when there will be results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled to be held on July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that it would postpone the groundbreaking time.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers hit hard! FDA bans JUUL products from entering the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban Juul e-cigarettes from being sold or distributed in the U.S. market, with regulators saying it lacks \"sufficient evidence\" to show that the sale of the product is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he did not approve of the FDA's judgment and would exhaust regulatory and related legal options and seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion in tort damages</p><p>On Thursday, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals made a ruling to revoke the lower court's compensation in support of Centripetal's patent infringement case against Cisco. The reason is that the judge Morgan who heard the case did not take recusal measures on the premise that his wife held Cisco shares. At that time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement compensation, plus patent licensing fees, and the overall compensation would exceed $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix cuts 300 jobs as revenue growth slows</a></p><p>According to local media reports, streaming media giant Netflix recently laid off 300 employees after laying off 150 employees last month, equivalent to about 3% of the company's employees. Subsequently, the company also confirmed this matter and said that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. The U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives of seven major oil companies</p><p>According to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth largest refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>) Wilmington Refinery reported an unexpected fire on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK1539":"汽车股","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK1119":"汽车制造商","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK1587":"次新股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147384376","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国。海外市场1、隔夜美股集体收高 美国科技股多数走高美股收盘，三大股指集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.64%，纳指涨1.62%，标普500指数涨0.95%。美国科技股收盘多数走高，其中苹果涨2.16%、特斯拉跌0.43%、亚马逊涨3.20%、谷歌A涨0.68%、奈飞涨1.58%、微软涨2.26%；经济重启概念多数走弱，美国航空跌0.92%、联合航空跌2.48%、皇家加勒比邮轮跌1.69%、波音跌2.33%。此外，互联网科技股、新能源汽车、消费和医药板块全数大涨。2、热门中概股多数收涨 新能源车板块领涨热门中概股周四多数收涨，新能源车板块领涨，小鹏汽车涨近8%，理想汽车涨6.6%，比亚迪ADR涨3.7%，蔚来涨超2%。其他中概股方面，拼多多收涨6.4%，百度涨2.4%，京东涨近0.8%，而网易跌近0.9%。叮咚买菜涨超7%，阿里巴巴、达达涨逾6%，电子烟第一股雾芯科技涨逾5%，B站、爱奇艺涨超3%，好未来、虎牙、迅雷涨超2%，腾讯粉单、满帮、金山云、知乎涨超1%，而周三刚结束三连跌的新东方收跌近9%，斗鱼跌逾4%，高途教育跌0.5%，网易有道跌近0.4%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌德国DAX指数跌1.72%欧股收盘，三大股指全线收跌。德国DAX指数跌1.72%，法国CAC指数跌0.56%，英国富时指数跌1%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.77%。4、美国WTI原油周四收跌1.8% 创5月10日以来最低收盘价美国原油期货价格周四录得连续第二个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.92美元，跌幅为1.81%，收于每桶104.27美元，创5月10日以来的最低收盘价。投资者担心美联储激进加息可能引发经济衰退，从而抑制燃料需求。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.5% 连续第四日收跌纽约黄金期货价格周四录得连续第四个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌8.60美元，跌幅为0.5%，报收于每盎司1829.80美元。分析师指出，周四黄金价格下跌的主要原因是美元走强，而美元走强的原因是市场预期美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的货币政策。国际宏观1、美联储逆回购工具使用量创下2.285万亿美元的新纪录美联储隔夜逆回购工具的使用量周四再创新高。89个参与方动用2.285万亿美元，超过周三触及的前期高点2.259万亿美元。该工具支付隔夜利率0.80%；其利率跟随美联储政策而变化。2、鲍威尔重申“无条件”抗通胀承诺 称经济衰退并非不可避免尽管民主党人警告经济衰退风险，但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，联储抗通胀的承诺是“无条件的”。另一位美联储理事支持下个月再次升息75个基点。鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证时表示，“我们劳动力市场的过热有点不可持续，现在离通胀目标还很遥远。我们真的需要恢复物价稳定，让通胀率回落至2%，因为如果不这样做的话，将无法实现可持续的充分就业。”鲍威尔重申， 美联储仍然希望经济实现软着陆，尽管过程会比较艰难。3、美联储理事Bowman支持在7月加息75个基点美联储理事Michelle Bowman表示，她支持7月升息75个基点，之后再进行几次50基点的加息。Bowman在为马萨诸塞州银行家协会组织的一场活动准备的发言中说，“基于当前的通胀数据，我预计下次会议上加息75个基点是合适的，只要数据支持，在此后的几次会议上应该加息至少50个基点。根据经济的发展情况，之后可能还需要进一步提高联邦基金目标利率区间。”4、美国抵押贷款利率升至5.81% 创2008年以来最高水平美国的抵押贷款利率再次攀升，创14年来高位。房地美在周四发布的声明中称，30年期抵押贷款平均利率为5.81%，高于上周的5.78%。这个走势与10年期美债收益率的下滑背道而驰。此前一周该利率创下1987年以来最大周升幅。5、美国企业活动下降 通胀飙升导致工厂订单和生产萎缩美国企业活动6月向回落迈出了坚定一步，因快速走高的通胀降低了服务业需求，并导致工厂订单和生产径直萎缩。S&P Global周四发布的6月份美国综合产出指数初值下滑2.4点至51.2。虽然仍高于50，但这已是2020年7月以来的次低水平，当时经济正在竭力摆脱疫情引发的衰退。6、美国经济颓势尽显？两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位附近金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）周四（6月23日）公布的最新数据报告显示，6月美国制造业和服务业采购经理指数（PMI）均出现了超于预期的跌幅。具体数据显示，美国6月制造业PMI初值录得52.4，刷新23个月低位，远低于市场预期的56和5月的57；制造业产出指数初值录得49.6，刷新24个月低位，远不及上月的55.2。6月商务活动指数（服务业PMI）初值录得51.6，显著低于市场预期的53.5和5月的53.4，刷新5个月低位，为2020年7月以来第三次跌至52以下。7、美国最高法院推翻纽约州一项枪支法律 将允许更多人合法持枪当地时间6月23日，美国最高法院在一项有关持枪权的重大裁决中推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，将允许更多人在街道上合法持枪。法官们以6票赞成、3票反对的结果推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，该法律要求人们证明自己特别需要携带枪支，才能获得在公共场合携带枪支的执照。法官们表示，这一要求违反了第二修正案“持有和携带武器”的权利。据悉，美国加利福尼亚州、夏威夷、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、新泽西州和罗得岛州都有类似的法律，可能会因这项裁决而受到挑战。8、美国参议员致函拜登 称其应当考虑限制原油出口美国民主党参议员敦促总统拜登限制原油出口，从而保障美国及其盟友的的石油供应。参议员Jack Reed、Tammy Duckworth、Tammy Baldwin和Jeanne Shaheen在一封信函中表示，能源价格“严重飙升”给使用这一权力提供了理由。美国能源部长Jennifer Granholm定于今天与石油企业高管会面。9、美国会众议院特别调查委员会就国会大厦骚乱事件举行第五场公开听证会当地时间6月23日，美国国会众议院特别调查委员会就去年1月6日国会大厦骚乱事件的调查举行第五场公开听证会。特别调查委员会主席本尼·汤普森（Bennie Thompson）在听证会上指出，前总统特朗普希望司法部将他的选举谎言“合法化”，并对多名官员进行施压。白宫律师埃里克·赫施曼作证称，前司法部高级官员杰弗里·克拉克（Jeffrey Clark）曾表示想利用司法部权力协助特朗普的计划。10、奥密克戎BA.4/5来势汹汹：免疫逃逸能力最强变异株 重复感染根据美国疾控中心（CDC）近日发布的数据，奥密克戎新变异株BA.4和BA.5正在美国占据主导，已经占据了美国新增病例的34.9%。令人担忧的是，研究显示，BA.4/5是目前为止免疫逃逸能力最强的新冠病毒变异株，可以重复感染，能走肺，这些特征意味着它们可能导致更多的住院和死亡。11、桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元桥水对欧洲股票的做空押注增加一倍，至105亿美元，在过去一周几乎翻了一番，对该地区股市的看空力度达到两年来的最高水平。根据汇编数据，这家全球最大的对冲基金公司披露了对28家公司的空头押注，其中包括对阿斯麦、道达尔、赛诺菲和思爱普的个人押注超过5亿美元。上周数据显示，桥水已成为欧洲股市的最大空头，大举押注逾57亿美元做空欧股。基于监管文件汇总的数据显示，这些投资中包括对半导体制造商阿斯麦10亿美元的空头押注以及对道达尔约7.52亿美元的空头押注。该公司本月做空的欧洲公司数量已增至18家。12、俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税据国际文传电讯社，俄罗斯可能会逐步改用卢布征收粮食关税，并考虑减免粮食出口关税。13、欧洲央行官员Kazimir：欧洲央行利率可能在一年内达到1.5%-2%欧洲央行管理委员会成员，担任斯洛伐克央行行长的Peter Kazimir表示，欧洲央行可能在未来12个月内将利率提高超过200个基点，使利率从现在开始的一年后达到1.5%-2%。Kazimir预计7月加息25个基点，然后9月可能加息50个基点。“这一切都取决于即将到来的数据。”Kazimir表示，一些欧元区国家可能陷入“技术性衰退”。14、德国总理朔尔茨：欧盟必须做好扩张的准备当地时间周四（6月23日），德国总理朔尔茨表示，鉴于乌克兰和摩尔多瓦将获得候选国身份，欧盟应该为扩大做好准备。朔尔茨强调，为了让更大的联盟发挥作用，更多的决定应该采取多数表决通过的原则，而不是要求全体一致通过。目前，在关键决策上欧盟采取的是一致通过原则，这意味着欧盟27个成员国均有权一票否决自己不认可的政策。此前，由于匈牙利等国的反对，欧盟拖延了约一个月时间，才正式推出针对俄罗斯的第六轮制裁。15、通胀达到21年高位 墨西哥央行宣布加息75基点在数据显示6月初物价同比升幅达到21年高位后，墨西哥央行周四加快了升息步伐。墨西哥央行将关键利率上调75个基点至7.75%，符合接受调查的所有27位经济学家的预期。此次加息幅度也是该行2008年采用通胀目标制以来最大，并且与美联储上周的加息幅度相同。墨西哥央行通常倾向于效仿美联储的利率决定，以避免资本突然外流。俄乌局势1、欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国欧洲理事会主席米歇尔当地时间23日宣布，当天的欧盟峰会同意批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国，格鲁吉亚为潜在候选国。米歇尔称这是一个历史性的时刻，标志着乌克兰向欧盟迈出了关键一步。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，这一决定不仅加强了乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚三国的力量，同时也加强了欧盟的实力。欧盟峰会的这项决定是应欧盟委员会本月17日的建议作出的。2、泽连斯基：乌获得欧盟候选国地位 是乌克兰与欧盟关系独一无二的历史时刻当地时间23日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基就乌克兰获得欧盟候选国地位在官方社交媒体上发文称，这是乌克兰与欧盟关系中独一无二的历史时刻，并对欧盟领导人的支持表示感谢。3、美官员：美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助据美联社当地时间6月23日报道，美国官员表示，美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助，包括“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭系统、弹药和其他物资。据悉，美国政府曾在15日宣布向乌克兰额外提供10亿美元的军事援助。4、德国警告俄罗斯或引发能源市场崩溃德国警告说，俄罗斯削减欧洲天然气供应可能引发能源市场崩溃，影响力不亚于当年雷曼兄弟引爆金融危机。在将德国天然气风险级别上调至第二高的“警戒”水平后，经济部长Robert Habeck表示，由于被迫以高价补平损失的气量，能源供应商的亏损正在日益增加，对当地公用事业行业及其用户（包括消费者和企业）可能存在溢出风险。Habeck在柏林召开的新闻发布会上表示，“如果亏损大到以他们不能承受，那么整个市场就会在某个时刻崩塌。这是能源系统的雷曼效应。”5、受对俄制裁影响 日本建筑木材供应难由于俄乌冲突持续造成国际产业链以及供应链的混乱，给世界多国都带来越来越多的影响。日本因为地震多发，建筑很多都采用木质结构，因而对木材的需求量非常大。俄乌冲突发生后，日本无法再大量进口俄罗斯木材，这给日本木材的供应造成了很大影响。公司新闻1、耐克将全面退出俄罗斯市场美国运动品牌耐克(Nike)当地时间周四在一份电子邮件声明中称，在俄罗斯业务暂停三个月后，该品牌将全面退出俄罗斯市场。分析指出，对耐克来说，这一举措在很大程度上是象征性的，不会产生什么实质性影响。来自乌克兰和俄罗斯两国的收入加起来也不到耐克总收入的1%。2、英特尔称国会延误恐导致俄亥俄工厂计划缩水在周四发送给媒体的声明中，英特尔明确表示：“不幸的是，美国国会的CHIPS芯片法案进展缓慢，公司也不知道到底什么时候能有结果。现在是国会采取行动的时候了，这样英特尔才能以长期以来为俄亥俄州以及其他项目设想的速度和规模向前推进。”根据当地媒体报道，英特尔俄亥俄工厂的开工仪式原定于7月22日举行，但公司周三向俄亥俄州州长Mike DeWine的办公室和俄亥俄州国会代表团成员通报将会推迟破土的时间。3、电子烟制造商遭重创！FDA禁止JUUL产品进入美国市场美国FDA周四宣布，将禁止Juul电子烟在美国市场进行销售或分销，监管称“缺乏足够证据”显示该产品的销售对于公共健康是合适的。Juul首席执行官Joe Murillo回应称不认可FDA的判断，将穷尽监管和相关法律的选项，寻求继续留在美国市场的方法。4、美国上诉法院驳回对思科不利的27亿美元侵权赔偿当地时间周四，美国联邦上诉法院作出判决，撤销下级法院支持Centripetal控告思科专利侵权案的赔偿，原因是审理此案的法官摩根在明知自己妻子持有思科股票的前提下，并没有采取回避措施。当时摩根判决思科向Centripetal支付19亿美元的侵权赔偿，加上专利授权许可费，整体赔偿金将超过27亿美元。5、营收增速放缓，Netflix裁员300人据当地媒体报道，流媒体巨头奈飞继上个月裁员150人后，又在近期裁掉了300名员工，约等于整个公司3%的雇员。随后公司也确认了这一事项，并表示作出这些调整是为了确保成本与营收增速下滑相匹配。6、美国能源部长会见七大油企高管根据美国能源部的公告，周四能源部长格兰霍姆与七家美国主要油企的CEO和高管举行了线下会谈，并提醒这些企业必须拿出解决方案确保安全、可负担的燃油供应。根据当地媒体报道，美国第四大炼油商菲利普斯66公司（Phillips 66）威尔明顿炼油厂6月23日报告发生意外火灾。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037518092,"gmtCreate":1648134970912,"gmtModify":1676534308385,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037518092","repostId":"1193025107","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193025107","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648131304,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193025107?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-24 22:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"BlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193025107","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这家全球最大资产管理公司的掌门人预计，世界向清洁能源转型短期将降速，而长期会提速。3月24日周四，贝莱德掌门人拉里芬克在致投资者的信中警告称，俄乌冲突将重塑世界经济，促使企业撤出全球供应链，从而进一步","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The head of the world's largest asset management company predicts that the world's transition to clean energy will slow down in the short term and accelerate in the long term. On Thursday, March 24, BlackRock head Larry Fink warned in a letter to investors that,<b>The Russia-Ukraine conflict will reshape the world economy and prompt companies to withdraw from global supply chains, further pushing up inflation.</b>He said:</p><p>\"The Russia-Ukraine conflict ended the globalization we have experienced over the past three decades.\" In the letter, Larry Fink also elaborated on his views on energy and digital currencies.<b>Energy</b>, he believes that in the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably slow down the world's progress towards clean energy, but in the long run, it will accelerate the world's transformation to green energy.<b>Digital currency,</b>He believes that the Russia-Ukraine crisis may accelerate the development of digital currencies.</p><p>At the end of '21, BlackRock managed $10 trillion in assets and was the world's largest asset manager. As the CEO and founder of this asset management giant, Larry Fink is known as the \"Godfather of Wall Street\".</p><p>The era of globalization is over, and supply chains push up global inflation</p><p>Fink pointed out that since COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has been decoupling, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated this trend. Going forward, businesses and governments will think more broadly about their dependence on other countries, which may lead to businesses moving more of their operations to their home countries or neighboring regions and \"withdrawing from some countries\" more quickly.</p><p>He believes that this anti-globalization \"decoupling\" will inevitably bring more challenges to enterprises, such as higher cost and profit pressure. And this large-scale \"repositioning\" of the supply chain will push up inflation. He said:</p><p>\"A massive repositioning of supply chains is inherently inflationary.\" Referring to central bank policy adjustments, Fink emphasized that major central banks are facing a dilemma they haven't faced in decades, namely having to choose between high inflation and slowing economic activity to curb price pressures.</p><p>Clean energy transition: short-term slowdown, long-term acceleration</p><p>Larry Fink pointed out that today, energy security has become the top priority of the global energy transition.</p><p>Energy prices have risen sharply due to the tailoring of Russian commodities. Fink believes this \"inevitably slows down\" the global move towards clean energy. Under the premise of ensuring energy security, next year, the focus of the United States will be to increase the supply of oil and natural gas, while coal consumption in Europe and Asia is likely to increase.</p><p>However, in the long run, this has accelerated the world's transition to green energy. There are two reasons for this:<b>First, policymakers will drive investment in renewable energy as an essential component of energy security.</b>For example, Germany has accelerated the time point to achieve 100% clean energy from 2050 to 2035.<b>Secondly, excessively high fossil energy prices make the price of clean energy more competitive.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-24 22:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The head of the world's largest asset management company predicts that the world's transition to clean energy will slow down in the short term and accelerate in the long term. On Thursday, March 24, BlackRock head Larry Fink warned in a letter to investors that,<b>The Russia-Ukraine conflict will reshape the world economy and prompt companies to withdraw from global supply chains, further pushing up inflation.</b>He said:</p><p>\"The Russia-Ukraine conflict ended the globalization we have experienced over the past three decades.\" In the letter, Larry Fink also elaborated on his views on energy and digital currencies.<b>Energy</b>, he believes that in the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably slow down the world's progress towards clean energy, but in the long run, it will accelerate the world's transformation to green energy.<b>Digital currency,</b>He believes that the Russia-Ukraine crisis may accelerate the development of digital currencies.</p><p>At the end of '21, BlackRock managed $10 trillion in assets and was the world's largest asset manager. As the CEO and founder of this asset management giant, Larry Fink is known as the \"Godfather of Wall Street\".</p><p>The era of globalization is over, and supply chains push up global inflation</p><p>Fink pointed out that since COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has been decoupling, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated this trend. Going forward, businesses and governments will think more broadly about their dependence on other countries, which may lead to businesses moving more of their operations to their home countries or neighboring regions and \"withdrawing from some countries\" more quickly.</p><p>He believes that this anti-globalization \"decoupling\" will inevitably bring more challenges to enterprises, such as higher cost and profit pressure. And this large-scale \"repositioning\" of the supply chain will push up inflation. He said:</p><p>\"A massive repositioning of supply chains is inherently inflationary.\" Referring to central bank policy adjustments, Fink emphasized that major central banks are facing a dilemma they haven't faced in decades, namely having to choose between high inflation and slowing economic activity to curb price pressures.</p><p>Clean energy transition: short-term slowdown, long-term acceleration</p><p>Larry Fink pointed out that today, energy security has become the top priority of the global energy transition.</p><p>Energy prices have risen sharply due to the tailoring of Russian commodities. Fink believes this \"inevitably slows down\" the global move towards clean energy. Under the premise of ensuring energy security, next year, the focus of the United States will be to increase the supply of oil and natural gas, while coal consumption in Europe and Asia is likely to increase.</p><p>However, in the long run, this has accelerated the world's transition to green energy. There are two reasons for this:<b>First, policymakers will drive investment in renewable energy as an essential component of energy security.</b>For example, Germany has accelerated the time point to achieve 100% clean energy from 2050 to 2035.<b>Secondly, excessively high fossil energy prices make the price of clean energy more competitive.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3655152\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"BLK":"贝莱德"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3655152","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1193025107","content_text":"这家全球最大资产管理公司的掌门人预计，世界向清洁能源转型短期将降速，而长期会提速。3月24日周四，贝莱德掌门人拉里芬克在致投资者的信中警告称，俄乌冲突将重塑世界经济，促使企业撤出全球供应链，从而进一步推高通胀。他表示：“俄乌冲突结束了我们在过去三十年中所经历的全球化。”信中，拉里芬克还阐述了自己对能源及数字货币的看法。能源方面，他认为，短期来看俄乌冲突不可避免地减缓了世界向清洁能源迈进的进程，但长远来看，这加速了世界向绿色能源转化的脚步。数字货币方面，他认为俄乌危机或加速数字货币的发展。截至21年底，贝莱德管理着10万亿美元的资产，是全球最大的资产管理公司。作为这家资管巨头的CEO与创始人，拉里芬克被誉为“华尔街教父”。全球化时代终结，供应链推高全球通胀芬克指出，自新冠疫情以来，全球经济便走向脱钩，而俄乌冲突加剧了这一趋势。今后，企业和政府将更广泛地思考它们对其他国家的依赖，这可能会导致企业将更多业务转移到本国或邻近地区，并更快地“从一些国家撤出”。他认为，这种逆全球化的“脱钩”将不可避免地给企业带来更多挑战，如更高的成本和利润压力。而这种供应链的大规模“重新定位”，将会推高通胀。他表示：“供应链的大规模重新定位本质上会导致通货膨胀。”提到央行政策调整时，芬克强调，各大央行正面临数十年来从未面临过的两难局面，即必须在高通胀和经济活动放缓以遏制价格压力之间做出选择。清洁能源转型：短期降速，长期提速拉里芬克指出，如今，能源安全已成为全球能源转型的重中之重。由于对俄罗斯大宗商品的裁制，能源价格已大幅上涨。芬克认为，这“不可避免地减缓了”全球向清洁能源迈进的进程。在保障能源安全的前提下，明年，美国的重点是增加石油和天然气的供应，而欧洲和亚洲的煤炭消费可能会增加。不过，长期来看，这加速了世界向绿色能源转化的进度。原因有二：首先，政策制定者将推动对可再生能源的投资，将其作为能源安全的重要组成部分。例如，德国就已把实现100%清洁能源的时间点从2050年加速至2035年。其次，过高的化石能源价格使得清洁能源的价格更具竞争力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030666355,"gmtCreate":1645710996093,"gmtModify":1676534056127,"author":{"id":"3581927941435634","authorId":"3581927941435634","name":"Yoongc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a93f178e6f634935a9ec8eccec2c7607","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581927941435634","authorIdStr":"3581927941435634"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030666355","repostId":"1120561496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120561496","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济-金融-投资","home_visible":1,"media_name":"李迅雷金融与投资","id":"71","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1"},"pubTimestamp":1645682466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120561496?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-24 14:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Russia-Ukraine crisis shakes the global market! What are the odds of winning a contrarian investment strategy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120561496","media":"李迅雷金融与投资","summary":"引  言俄乌危机演绎：“行到水穷处，坐看云起时”。近期，俄罗斯总统普京宣布承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国并宣布驻军、发表强硬演讲，同时，美国宣布美军防御准备状态已升至3级（与古巴导弹危机同","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction</b></p><p><b>Interpretation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: \"Walk to a poor place, sit and watch the clouds rise.\"</b>Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, announced the garrison of troops and delivered a tough speech. At the same time, the United States announced that the defense readiness of the US military has been upgraded to level 3 (the same level as the Cuban Missile Crisis), and began to impose financial sanctions on Russia. Affected by this risk event, the global market fluctuated greatly: the price of crude oil once jumped to nearly US $100/barrel, the stock indexes of major global capital markets such as Europe and the United States generally fell by about 2%, and the Russian MOEX index at the center of the event fell by nearly 10% for two consecutive days.</p><p><b>The core reason why the Russia-Ukraine crisis has triggered such great fluctuations in the global market lies in two concerns of global investors: 1) The market is worried about the risk of war between Russia and Ukraine in the future; 2) The market is worried that Putin's move will trigger unprecedented severe sanctions from the United States and Europe, such as removing Russian crude oil from the global crude oil supply system, which will change the supply and demand of crude oil and other commodities and aggravate global inflation.</b></p><p>But we believe that investors do not need to panic at this time. The climax of the Russia-Ukraine crisis may also mean that it is about to \"end\". Regardless of the Russia-Ukraine crisis itself, the two major risks that the market is worried about-the risk of war and the risk of strong Russian energy sanctions, there is a high probability that it will not happen; Or in all previous \"close-to-war\" crises, the historical law that the \"contrarian investment strategy\" at the most panicked moment has the highest rate of return may indicate that risky assets represented by stocks have a high probability of \"bottoming out\" in stages, while Crude oil prices may have a high probability of \"peaking\" in stages.</p><p>We will analyze the game strategies and \"equilibrium points\" of interests of all parties in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, the rules of return of the \"contrarian investment\" strategy in the four \"close-to-war\" great power games in history, and this \"contrarian investment\" The above viewpoint is elaborated from multiple dimensions such as the logic of the game between great powers behind the effectiveness of the \"investment\" strategy.</p><p><b>1. The \"big chess game\" between Russia and Ukraine: What are the players at the chess table thinking?</b></p><p><b>1. Russia: Maintaining the \"status quo\" of the Minsk Agreement and enhancing Putin's domestic \"prestige\"</b></p><p>The reason for the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis dates back to the political turmoil in Ukraine in 2014. While Putin marched into Crimea, he supported the de facto independence of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, where ethnic Russians are majority.<b>In fact, the above-mentioned areas have been controlled by Russian armed forces since 2014. However, in the past few years, Russia has never publicly acknowledged that these areas are controlled by Russia, but claimed that they were the work of local \"pro-Russian militias\".</b>In 2015, under the coordination of the West, Ukraine was also forced to sign the Minsk Agreement, which de facto recognized the independent status of eastern Ukraine (including: the withdrawal of Ukrainian government forces from the region and the agreement to local autonomy)</p><p>Since Ukraine's political situation gradually stabilized in 2015, out of considerations for Ukraine's own national interests, it has continuously demanded revisions to the Minsk Agreement. At the same time, it has continuously tried to move closer to NATO politically and continuously attacked the above two regions of eastern Ukraine militarily. local armed forces and made a certain degree of progress. This is constantly troubling the domestic support rate of Russia and Putin.</p><p>Therefore, in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, although Putin has given ambitious goals such as \"NATO stops its eastward expansion, returns its deployment to before 1997, and abandons any military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia\", its real<b>\"Bottom Line Proposition\"</b>Or is still:<b>The \"status quo\" that prevents Ukrainian membership in NATO and preserves the de facto independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.</b>Russia originally hoped to use diplomatic channels with the United States and Europe to force Ukraine to continue to accept the \"status quo\" under the Minsk Agreement. After diplomatic efforts failed, it could deter Ukraine from taking further action by publicly recognizing the independence of these two regions and the existence of Russian armed forces.</p><p><b>For Putin, his more important purpose is to enhance his prestige at home:</b>In recent years, with the downturn of Russia's economy, its official statistical support rate in 2020 has dropped by 20% from its historical high. At the same time, opposition * such as Narvani in Russia have also had an impact on it. Behind Putin's seemingly tough speech on Ukraine, he attributed the root cause of the Ukrainian issue to \"the wrong practice of the former Soviet Union\" and \"NATO's treachery\". Its purpose was also to attack his domestic \"left\" and \"right\" political opponents.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1fbaf24361f00995ae97410246f652\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is precisely because of Putin's basic political goal of enhancing domestic prestige and the objective reality that Russia's strength is obviously inferior to that of the Western camp that it may deter the West and boost domestic morale by creating tension.<b>But will do everything possible to avoid a real war that breaks through the \"bottom line\" of the West and has a fatal impact on the stability of its regime</b>For example: During this crisis, Putin repeatedly emphasized that \"trying to introduce Russia into war is a conspiracy of the West.\"<b>At the same time, after achieving the political goal, he quickly and dignificantly escaped unscathed, that is, the strategy of \"approaching war\" instead of \"substantial war\".</b>So what is the \"bottom line\" of the West that Russia faces?</p><p><b>2. United States: Regain dominance over Europe by exaggerating the crisis</b></p><p>For the United States, its current strategic focus has completely shifted to focus on the Asia-Pacific region. It does not want to be dispersed too much power by Eastern Europe. Therefore, on the basis of accepting the \"Minsk Agreement\" that is, maintaining the \"status quo\", giving Ukraine certain support is its core strategic interest.<b>Therefore, Ukraine's attempt to join NATO itself is difficult to be accepted by the United States.</b>Maintaining the \"status quo\" is the common position of European countries such as Germany and France, which have closer interactions with Russia's interests.<b>The core starting point of its threats such as severe energy sanctions against Russia is to prevent Russia from further invading Ukraine and change the \"status quo.\"</b></p><p>As far as the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is concerned, on the one hand, Biden hopes to take this opportunity to save his precarious domestic support rate since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan last year by demonstrating toughness. On the other hand,<b>With the help of the exaggeration of Russia's \"invasion\" of Ukraine, European countries' panic and dependence on the United States have been strengthened, taking the opportunity to bridge the gap between the United States and Europe caused by Trump's \"America First\" in 2016, and regain the dominance of European relations.</b></p><p>As the biggest loser of the actual interests of the Crimean crisis and the Minsk Agreement in 2014, Ukraine is the \"breaker\" that most hopes to \"break the status quo\" in this crisis. However, the reality that its strength is the weakest makes it It is also hoped that by exaggerating the crisis, Ukraine will try to directly bring in the United States and other West to achieve \"breaking the situation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551949732bc0d5ebe78341e19040ce56\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The \"climax\" and \"end\" of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: the United States and Putin may achieve a \"win-win\" \"equilibrium point\"</b></p><p>Through the analysis of the fundamental interests of all parties involved in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it is not difficult to conclude that the \"climax\" of the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is not only the beginning of the \"big drama\" such as all-out war and strong energy sanctions that the market is worried about, but the fundamental reason for the \"final chapter\" before the \"end\" is that the interests of all parties have been \"balanced\" at the current point in time, and if we go further, the interests of all parties will bear unbearable losses.</p><p><b>1. As far as Putin and Russia are concerned: behind the tough statement, it is actually only the recognition of \"fait accompli\".</b>This incident strengthened Putin's authority among nationalists at home and effectively cracked down on his potential political opponents at home. Although its ambitious goals such as requiring NATO to return to 1997 have not been achieved, it prevented Ukraine from joining NATO and prevented Ukraine from taking continuous military recovery actions by publicly declaring its recognition of the independence of the two regions and the presence of Russian armed forces, so that it could be decent enough to \"get away with it\";<b>And because its approach, as the Ukrainian Prime Minister said, is only \"Russia legalizes its own army, which has actually existed in Donbass since 2014.\" There is no further attack on Kiev and other expansion behavior. Therefore, it also avoids touching the \"red lines\" of the United States and Europe.</b></p><p>It should be pointed out that this behavior, which is contrary to the existing \"international law system\" after all, has increased Russia's isolation in the international community, especially the western world, which may be regarded as some kind of price paid by it.</p><p>2. As far as the United States is concerned: As long as the \"status quo\" is maintained, no severe energy sanctions will be imposed. By demonstrating toughness this time, on the one hand, Biden will help improve his image of being weak at home after the Afghanistan incident; More importantly, through the serious insecurity of the European Union, especially the member states in Eastern Europe, about the so-called \"Russia wants to restore the Soviet territory\" under this crisis, the United States has seriously weakened the \"pro-Russian faction\" within the European Union, restarted the internal coordination mechanism of NATO, directed Danish, Spanish, Italian, French and other troops to deploy to Eastern Europe, and then strengthened its control over the European Union in an all-round way.</p><p><b>Since maintaining the \"status quo\" is the consensus of interests of all parties except Ukraine, what Russia is doing at present has not changed the \"status quo\", but only \"opened up\" the fait accompli. Therefore, Europe and the United States will not impose severe sanctions on Russia</b>(Only symbolic sanctions will be imposed, just like the current investment restrictions and sanctions on relevant officials in Luhansk and Donetsk.<b>Therefore, after the announcement of U.S. sanctions, the Russian stock market and U.S. stocks both rose sharply, while crude oil prices fell sharply</b>): The White House and the British government said that \"if further Russian invasion occurs, there will be tougher sanctions.\"</p><p>As a party whose interests are damaged, Ukraine is still the loser of this crisis. The tense situation has caused a substantial withdrawal of foreign capital, deeply affected the economy, and the goal of changing the status quo of the Minsk Agreement has not been achieved. However, Ukraine's relatively weak strength and the religious and ethnic contradictions in eastern Ukraine itself have forced it to accept the status quo in stages. Therefore, the Ukrainian president also said \"we want peace\" after Russia's declaration.</p><p>Of course, it needs to be pointed out that it is difficult for Ukraine to accept the current \"status quo\" for a long time due to its own national and national interests. Therefore, in the medium and long term, new conflicts and confrontations may continue to occur in eastern Ukraine.</p><p><b>3. \"Walk to the poor place of water, sit and watch the clouds rise\"-the impact of the four \"close war\" crises under the historical review on the capital market</b></p><p>In the above, we used logic to deduce the interests of all parties and the \"equilibrium point\" of the game in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, pointing out that the \"climax\" of this \"close-to-war\" crisis, that is, the market is worried about The war and Russian energy sanctions will not occur, so the prices of related risk assets may \"bottom out\" in stages while the prices of crude oil may \"peak\" in stages. So under the similar risk of \"approaching war\" in history, does the true performance of the capital market follow this law?</p><p><b>1. The impact of Russia's annexation of Georgia and Crimea under Putin on crude oil: oil prices peak when the crisis lands</b></p><p>First of all, starting from the last 20 years, two conflicts between Russia and neighboring countries and the threat of sanctions from the West, we study the law of crude oil price trends under geopolitical risks. We can find that: Russia's Georgia war in August 2008 and Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014 basically peaked when the crisis came to its climax.</p><p>The reason is that by sorting out the Western sanctions against Russia after these two crises, we can find that the Western sanctions are only personal sanctions against some Russian officials and partial sanctions in the areas involved. The strong energy sanctions that the market was previously worried about have not happened.</p><p>The reason behind this is that Putin very \"accurately\" chose the \"blank\" zone that the West ignored at that time, and avoided the \"red line\" of the West, such as the use of force in the \"indirect zone\" of Georgia in 2008, which benefited from the indifference of the West to this region; The \"proxy offensive\" in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 relied on the chaos of regime change in Ukraine and the hesitation of the western world under the chaos of historical laws.</p><p>For crude oil prices, due to the fermentation process of the previous crisis<b>Expectations of strong energy sanctions and crude oil supply shortages have been overdrawn,</b>And a large number of \"profit-taking orders\" have been hoarded. Therefore, when the crisis comes to fruition and the sanctions are significantly lower than expected, the excessively raised oil price and the unbalanced bargaining structure will drive the oil price to \"peak\", and there will be an adjustment of up to 2 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda4e8edd4833d5fd4665ea814a094fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The impact of four \"close-to-war\" crises on the capital market: What are the odds of winning the \"contrarian investment strategy\"?</b></p><p>As far as the nature of the crisis is concerned, the intensity of the confrontation between the West and Russia in this Russia-Ukraine crisis is much greater than that in the Georgian crisis in 2008 and the Crimean crisis in 2014. If the West was indifferent or caught off guard in the first two incidents, then in this crisis, the United States upgraded its defense readiness to level 3, which is the same level as the Cuban missile crisis, basically<b>Tit-for-tat \"close to war\" state,</b>So in history, how will the global capital market perform under this crisis of \"close to war\"?</p><p>In fact, during the Cold War, this kind of \"near-war\" confrontation between great powers occurred four times: the first Berlin crisis in June 1948, the second Berlin crisis in late 1958, the third Berlin crisis in mid-1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962. By observing the performance of US stocks during these periods, we can find that:</p><p>1) First, from<b>General trend angle</b>Look, except for the first Berlin crisis, which broke out shortly after World War II and caused global investors to worry about the outbreak of World War III, which in turn triggered the adjustment of U.S. stocks for nearly a year or so, the other two Berlin crises and Cuba The impact of the missile crisis on the Dow Jones index is at most 1-2 months<b>\"Event shock\"</b>, did not change the overall bull market situation of U.S. stocks;</p><p>2) Secondly, from<b>Event transactions</b>From the perspective of, each of the four \"close wars\" had one<b>The law of \"contrarian investment strategy\" with obvious winning rate,</b>I.e.: in<b>When the crisis reaches its climax, the best \"buying point\" is when the market is most panicked, and then it will show a \"V-shaped\" reversal:</b>Our statistics show that if you hold at the best \"buy point\" for one month, the average yields for one quarter and half a year are 8.79%, 11.11% and 15.01% respectively.</p><p>As the saying goes, \"Walk to the poor place of water, sit and watch the clouds rise\".<b>Among the four \"near-war\" crises, this \"most panicking moment\" of the best buying point specifically refers to</b>：</p><p><ul><li>During the first Berlin crisis, on June 24, 1948, the Soviet Union completely cut off land and water transportation and freight transportation between the Western Occupied Area and Berlin;</p><p></li><li>During the Second Berlin Crisis, on November 27, 1958, the Soviet Union unilaterally issued an \"ultimatum\" demanding that Britain, the United States and France withdraw their troops from West Berlin within six months;</p><p></li><li>In the third Berlin crisis, at the beginning of July, 1961, Soviet leader Khrushchev announced the suspension of demobilization and increased military expenditure by one third. He made a speech threatening to launch war and step down on West Berlin. US President Kennedy made a tough response, never repeating the appeasement policy, and asked Congress to increase the defense budget by $3.25 billion, recruit some reservists and the National Guard to join the army, expand civil defense and build air defense measures.</p><p></li></ul>During the Cuban Missile Crisis, on October 23, 1962, the Soviet government issued a statement \"resolutely rejecting\" the interception of the United States and \"will carry out the most fierce response\" to the threat of the United States. At the same time, the nuclear missile forces of the United States and the Soviet Union entered the highest alert.</p><p>Among the four \"close to war\" crises, the reason why the world's most panicking moment has become the \"buying point\" with the highest yield of \"contrarian investment strategy\" is,<b>The essence is due to the rapid easing and reversal of the crisis situation itself after the most panicking moment:</b>For example, the first and second Berlin crises ended with the Soviet Union's concessions and lifting the blockade, the third Berlin crisis ended with the Soviet Union's defensive measures to build the Berlin Wall, and the Cuban Missile Crisis ended with the Soviet Union's withdrawal of nuclear missiles deployed in Cuba.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/861c0a673c0c52d0f4b68926ca8c4980\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The profound mechanism behind the high winning rate of \"contrarian investment strategy\": the game strategy of \"close competition\" and \"attack instead of defense\"</b></p><p>We believe that this kind of investment law is not accidental. Behind it is a profound \"close to war\" game strategy and logic of great powers:</p><p>1) First of all, in the context of mutual destruction in nuclear war, as a relatively weak party, whether it is the Soviet Union during the Cold War or Russia today,<b>Policymakers are well aware of the \"catastrophic consequences\" of a real all-out war between big powers on the stability of domestic regimes, so they will try their best to avoid a real war.</b>Since a real war will not break out, the impact on the endogenous fundamentals of U.S. listed companies is relatively controllable and will not change the general trend of U.S. stocks. With the advancement of the Cold War process, the market has gradually priced in the \"background of the era of increasing confrontation between major powers\",<b>Therefore, the impact of the four \"close-to-war\" crises of the \"Cuban Missile Crisis\" on the capital market mostly presents \"event shocks\" in which risk appetite declines in stages.</b></p><p>2) Secondly, the Cuban Missile Crisis-style four \"close to war\"<b>Essence</b>Can be regarded as<b>In the confrontation between great powers, the weaker side adopts the game strategy of \"attacking instead of defending\".</b>In the game of great powers such as the Cold War, facing the aggressive offensive of the more powerful United States and Western camps, for example, before the Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States deployed nuclear weapons in Turkey and other areas close to the hinterland of the Soviet Union. Before this Russia-Ukraine crisis, NATO's constant \"eastward expansion\" and support for Ukraine, etc., the Soviet Union and Russia, as relatively weak parties, can only make the West pay attention to their strategic demands and enhance their leaders' prestige at home by resorting to demonstrating their tough determination and will to fight at war. In this process, it will inevitably be accompanied by the continuous escalation of the situation until there is a certain degree of \"panic\" in the western society as a whole. As far as the capital market is concerned, risk assets will inevitably usher in a certain degree of impact and adjustment in this process.</p><p>By \"replacing defense with attack\", certain strategic goals have been achieved, such as: after enhancing the political prestige of leaders,<b>Policymakers are considering how to get away with a \"winner's posture\" with dignity, which often requires showing a tougher posture and being \"just right\" in essence.</b>For example: in the Berlin crisis, Khrushchev built the Berlin Wall. In this Russia-Ukraine crisis, Putin recognized the \"fait accompli\" of the independence of the two eastern Ukrainian states, ensuring a decent and tough stance and maintaining the minimum geopolitical status quo.<b>This is also the crisis itself of \"close to war\", which is approaching the \"end\" when it reaches the \"climax\", and the high winning rate of the \"contrarian investment strategy\"-the most panicked moment in the capital market is easy to form the \"best buying point\" mechanism behind it.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/284f49f50776fd64467a9af18a5296f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>IV. Conclusion: \"End\" and \"Opening\"</b></p><p><b>The \"end\" under the \"climax\":</b>To sum up, no matter the logical deduction from the interests and game strategies of all parties in this Russia-Ukraine crisis: the interests of all parties have achieved \"equilibrium\" at the current point in time, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis is currently approaching the most panicking \"climax\", which itself It also means that it may \"end\" at any time. Therefore, the risk of a full-scale war and strong sanctions on Russian crude oil that the market is most worried about will most likely not happen.</p><p>Or from the impact of previous \"close-to-war\" big power games on the market: when the market is most panicked, the \"reverse investment strategy\" of buying risky assets such as equity and selling crude oil can always achieve obvious excess returns. Both indicate:<b>At the current point in time, there is a high probability that risky assets such as stocks have bottomed out in stages, so investors in the equity market need not be pessimistic; On the contrary, commodities such as crude oil, which are currently the most excited, may peak in stages, and investors should treat them with moderate caution.</b></p><p><b>The \"beginning\" of the \"era of great changes\":</b>Although the Russia-Ukraine crisis itself is about to \"end\" in the \"climax\", from a medium and long-term perspective, due to the existing international legal system and the post-Cold War geopolitical order in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, it has suffered a clear impact for the first time, so this Russia-Ukraine crisis may herald a<b>A new era of \"great changes\"</b>The arrival of, namely:<b>The game between major powers continues to intensify, the insecurity among countries is increasing day by day, and the weight of security in the supply chains of various countries is increasingly higher than that of economic efficiency itself.</b></p><p>In this sense, the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is both the \"end\" and the \"beginning\", and the \"beginning\" of the \"era of great changes\" is also under the Russia-Ukraine crisis.<b>The real medium-and long-term investment opportunities truly bred by the capital market lie in: domestic substitution and supply chain security such as domestic materials in the upstream of semiconductors, software ecosystem supporting Huawei's domestic chips, OEMs in the military industry</b>The relevant sub-sectors may usher in more support from policies, resources, funds, etc. in the new era of \"big changes\", which deserves investors' attention.</p><p>Risk warning: The Russia-Ukraine crisis has seen an unexpected \"black swan\", and the trend of crude oil, stock market, etc. has changed beyond expectations due to other factors.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Russia-Ukraine crisis shakes the global market! What are the odds of winning a contrarian investment strategy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Russia-Ukraine crisis shakes the global market! What are the odds of winning a contrarian investment strategy?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/71\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">李迅雷金融与投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-24 14:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction</b></p><p><b>Interpretation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: \"Walk to a poor place, sit and watch the clouds rise.\"</b>Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, announced the garrison of troops and delivered a tough speech. At the same time, the United States announced that the defense readiness of the US military has been upgraded to level 3 (the same level as the Cuban Missile Crisis), and began to impose financial sanctions on Russia. Affected by this risk event, the global market fluctuated greatly: the price of crude oil once jumped to nearly US $100/barrel, the stock indexes of major global capital markets such as Europe and the United States generally fell by about 2%, and the Russian MOEX index at the center of the event fell by nearly 10% for two consecutive days.</p><p><b>The core reason why the Russia-Ukraine crisis has triggered such great fluctuations in the global market lies in two concerns of global investors: 1) The market is worried about the risk of war between Russia and Ukraine in the future; 2) The market is worried that Putin's move will trigger unprecedented severe sanctions from the United States and Europe, such as removing Russian crude oil from the global crude oil supply system, which will change the supply and demand of crude oil and other commodities and aggravate global inflation.</b></p><p>But we believe that investors do not need to panic at this time. The climax of the Russia-Ukraine crisis may also mean that it is about to \"end\". Regardless of the Russia-Ukraine crisis itself, the two major risks that the market is worried about-the risk of war and the risk of strong Russian energy sanctions, there is a high probability that it will not happen; Or in all previous \"close-to-war\" crises, the historical law that the \"contrarian investment strategy\" at the most panicked moment has the highest rate of return may indicate that risky assets represented by stocks have a high probability of \"bottoming out\" in stages, while Crude oil prices may have a high probability of \"peaking\" in stages.</p><p>We will analyze the game strategies and \"equilibrium points\" of interests of all parties in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, the rules of return of the \"contrarian investment\" strategy in the four \"close-to-war\" great power games in history, and this \"contrarian investment\" The above viewpoint is elaborated from multiple dimensions such as the logic of the game between great powers behind the effectiveness of the \"investment\" strategy.</p><p><b>1. The \"big chess game\" between Russia and Ukraine: What are the players at the chess table thinking?</b></p><p><b>1. Russia: Maintaining the \"status quo\" of the Minsk Agreement and enhancing Putin's domestic \"prestige\"</b></p><p>The reason for the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis dates back to the political turmoil in Ukraine in 2014. While Putin marched into Crimea, he supported the de facto independence of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, where ethnic Russians are majority.<b>In fact, the above-mentioned areas have been controlled by Russian armed forces since 2014. However, in the past few years, Russia has never publicly acknowledged that these areas are controlled by Russia, but claimed that they were the work of local \"pro-Russian militias\".</b>In 2015, under the coordination of the West, Ukraine was also forced to sign the Minsk Agreement, which de facto recognized the independent status of eastern Ukraine (including: the withdrawal of Ukrainian government forces from the region and the agreement to local autonomy)</p><p>Since Ukraine's political situation gradually stabilized in 2015, out of considerations for Ukraine's own national interests, it has continuously demanded revisions to the Minsk Agreement. At the same time, it has continuously tried to move closer to NATO politically and continuously attacked the above two regions of eastern Ukraine militarily. local armed forces and made a certain degree of progress. This is constantly troubling the domestic support rate of Russia and Putin.</p><p>Therefore, in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, although Putin has given ambitious goals such as \"NATO stops its eastward expansion, returns its deployment to before 1997, and abandons any military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia\", its real<b>\"Bottom Line Proposition\"</b>Or is still:<b>The \"status quo\" that prevents Ukrainian membership in NATO and preserves the de facto independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.</b>Russia originally hoped to use diplomatic channels with the United States and Europe to force Ukraine to continue to accept the \"status quo\" under the Minsk Agreement. After diplomatic efforts failed, it could deter Ukraine from taking further action by publicly recognizing the independence of these two regions and the existence of Russian armed forces.</p><p><b>For Putin, his more important purpose is to enhance his prestige at home:</b>In recent years, with the downturn of Russia's economy, its official statistical support rate in 2020 has dropped by 20% from its historical high. At the same time, opposition * such as Narvani in Russia have also had an impact on it. Behind Putin's seemingly tough speech on Ukraine, he attributed the root cause of the Ukrainian issue to \"the wrong practice of the former Soviet Union\" and \"NATO's treachery\". Its purpose was also to attack his domestic \"left\" and \"right\" political opponents.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1fbaf24361f00995ae97410246f652\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is precisely because of Putin's basic political goal of enhancing domestic prestige and the objective reality that Russia's strength is obviously inferior to that of the Western camp that it may deter the West and boost domestic morale by creating tension.<b>But will do everything possible to avoid a real war that breaks through the \"bottom line\" of the West and has a fatal impact on the stability of its regime</b>For example: During this crisis, Putin repeatedly emphasized that \"trying to introduce Russia into war is a conspiracy of the West.\"<b>At the same time, after achieving the political goal, he quickly and dignificantly escaped unscathed, that is, the strategy of \"approaching war\" instead of \"substantial war\".</b>So what is the \"bottom line\" of the West that Russia faces?</p><p><b>2. United States: Regain dominance over Europe by exaggerating the crisis</b></p><p>For the United States, its current strategic focus has completely shifted to focus on the Asia-Pacific region. It does not want to be dispersed too much power by Eastern Europe. Therefore, on the basis of accepting the \"Minsk Agreement\" that is, maintaining the \"status quo\", giving Ukraine certain support is its core strategic interest.<b>Therefore, Ukraine's attempt to join NATO itself is difficult to be accepted by the United States.</b>Maintaining the \"status quo\" is the common position of European countries such as Germany and France, which have closer interactions with Russia's interests.<b>The core starting point of its threats such as severe energy sanctions against Russia is to prevent Russia from further invading Ukraine and change the \"status quo.\"</b></p><p>As far as the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is concerned, on the one hand, Biden hopes to take this opportunity to save his precarious domestic support rate since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan last year by demonstrating toughness. On the other hand,<b>With the help of the exaggeration of Russia's \"invasion\" of Ukraine, European countries' panic and dependence on the United States have been strengthened, taking the opportunity to bridge the gap between the United States and Europe caused by Trump's \"America First\" in 2016, and regain the dominance of European relations.</b></p><p>As the biggest loser of the actual interests of the Crimean crisis and the Minsk Agreement in 2014, Ukraine is the \"breaker\" that most hopes to \"break the status quo\" in this crisis. However, the reality that its strength is the weakest makes it It is also hoped that by exaggerating the crisis, Ukraine will try to directly bring in the United States and other West to achieve \"breaking the situation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551949732bc0d5ebe78341e19040ce56\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The \"climax\" and \"end\" of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: the United States and Putin may achieve a \"win-win\" \"equilibrium point\"</b></p><p>Through the analysis of the fundamental interests of all parties involved in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it is not difficult to conclude that the \"climax\" of the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is not only the beginning of the \"big drama\" such as all-out war and strong energy sanctions that the market is worried about, but the fundamental reason for the \"final chapter\" before the \"end\" is that the interests of all parties have been \"balanced\" at the current point in time, and if we go further, the interests of all parties will bear unbearable losses.</p><p><b>1. As far as Putin and Russia are concerned: behind the tough statement, it is actually only the recognition of \"fait accompli\".</b>This incident strengthened Putin's authority among nationalists at home and effectively cracked down on his potential political opponents at home. Although its ambitious goals such as requiring NATO to return to 1997 have not been achieved, it prevented Ukraine from joining NATO and prevented Ukraine from taking continuous military recovery actions by publicly declaring its recognition of the independence of the two regions and the presence of Russian armed forces, so that it could be decent enough to \"get away with it\";<b>And because its approach, as the Ukrainian Prime Minister said, is only \"Russia legalizes its own army, which has actually existed in Donbass since 2014.\" There is no further attack on Kiev and other expansion behavior. Therefore, it also avoids touching the \"red lines\" of the United States and Europe.</b></p><p>It should be pointed out that this behavior, which is contrary to the existing \"international law system\" after all, has increased Russia's isolation in the international community, especially the western world, which may be regarded as some kind of price paid by it.</p><p>2. As far as the United States is concerned: As long as the \"status quo\" is maintained, no severe energy sanctions will be imposed. By demonstrating toughness this time, on the one hand, Biden will help improve his image of being weak at home after the Afghanistan incident; More importantly, through the serious insecurity of the European Union, especially the member states in Eastern Europe, about the so-called \"Russia wants to restore the Soviet territory\" under this crisis, the United States has seriously weakened the \"pro-Russian faction\" within the European Union, restarted the internal coordination mechanism of NATO, directed Danish, Spanish, Italian, French and other troops to deploy to Eastern Europe, and then strengthened its control over the European Union in an all-round way.</p><p><b>Since maintaining the \"status quo\" is the consensus of interests of all parties except Ukraine, what Russia is doing at present has not changed the \"status quo\", but only \"opened up\" the fait accompli. Therefore, Europe and the United States will not impose severe sanctions on Russia</b>(Only symbolic sanctions will be imposed, just like the current investment restrictions and sanctions on relevant officials in Luhansk and Donetsk.<b>Therefore, after the announcement of U.S. sanctions, the Russian stock market and U.S. stocks both rose sharply, while crude oil prices fell sharply</b>): The White House and the British government said that \"if further Russian invasion occurs, there will be tougher sanctions.\"</p><p>As a party whose interests are damaged, Ukraine is still the loser of this crisis. The tense situation has caused a substantial withdrawal of foreign capital, deeply affected the economy, and the goal of changing the status quo of the Minsk Agreement has not been achieved. However, Ukraine's relatively weak strength and the religious and ethnic contradictions in eastern Ukraine itself have forced it to accept the status quo in stages. Therefore, the Ukrainian president also said \"we want peace\" after Russia's declaration.</p><p>Of course, it needs to be pointed out that it is difficult for Ukraine to accept the current \"status quo\" for a long time due to its own national and national interests. Therefore, in the medium and long term, new conflicts and confrontations may continue to occur in eastern Ukraine.</p><p><b>3. \"Walk to the poor place of water, sit and watch the clouds rise\"-the impact of the four \"close war\" crises under the historical review on the capital market</b></p><p>In the above, we used logic to deduce the interests of all parties and the \"equilibrium point\" of the game in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, pointing out that the \"climax\" of this \"close-to-war\" crisis, that is, the market is worried about The war and Russian energy sanctions will not occur, so the prices of related risk assets may \"bottom out\" in stages while the prices of crude oil may \"peak\" in stages. So under the similar risk of \"approaching war\" in history, does the true performance of the capital market follow this law?</p><p><b>1. The impact of Russia's annexation of Georgia and Crimea under Putin on crude oil: oil prices peak when the crisis lands</b></p><p>First of all, starting from the last 20 years, two conflicts between Russia and neighboring countries and the threat of sanctions from the West, we study the law of crude oil price trends under geopolitical risks. We can find that: Russia's Georgia war in August 2008 and Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014 basically peaked when the crisis came to its climax.</p><p>The reason is that by sorting out the Western sanctions against Russia after these two crises, we can find that the Western sanctions are only personal sanctions against some Russian officials and partial sanctions in the areas involved. The strong energy sanctions that the market was previously worried about have not happened.</p><p>The reason behind this is that Putin very \"accurately\" chose the \"blank\" zone that the West ignored at that time, and avoided the \"red line\" of the West, such as the use of force in the \"indirect zone\" of Georgia in 2008, which benefited from the indifference of the West to this region; The \"proxy offensive\" in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 relied on the chaos of regime change in Ukraine and the hesitation of the western world under the chaos of historical laws.</p><p>For crude oil prices, due to the fermentation process of the previous crisis<b>Expectations of strong energy sanctions and crude oil supply shortages have been overdrawn,</b>And a large number of \"profit-taking orders\" have been hoarded. Therefore, when the crisis comes to fruition and the sanctions are significantly lower than expected, the excessively raised oil price and the unbalanced bargaining structure will drive the oil price to \"peak\", and there will be an adjustment of up to 2 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda4e8edd4833d5fd4665ea814a094fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The impact of four \"close-to-war\" crises on the capital market: What are the odds of winning the \"contrarian investment strategy\"?</b></p><p>As far as the nature of the crisis is concerned, the intensity of the confrontation between the West and Russia in this Russia-Ukraine crisis is much greater than that in the Georgian crisis in 2008 and the Crimean crisis in 2014. If the West was indifferent or caught off guard in the first two incidents, then in this crisis, the United States upgraded its defense readiness to level 3, which is the same level as the Cuban missile crisis, basically<b>Tit-for-tat \"close to war\" state,</b>So in history, how will the global capital market perform under this crisis of \"close to war\"?</p><p>In fact, during the Cold War, this kind of \"near-war\" confrontation between great powers occurred four times: the first Berlin crisis in June 1948, the second Berlin crisis in late 1958, the third Berlin crisis in mid-1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962. By observing the performance of US stocks during these periods, we can find that:</p><p>1) First, from<b>General trend angle</b>Look, except for the first Berlin crisis, which broke out shortly after World War II and caused global investors to worry about the outbreak of World War III, which in turn triggered the adjustment of U.S. stocks for nearly a year or so, the other two Berlin crises and Cuba The impact of the missile crisis on the Dow Jones index is at most 1-2 months<b>\"Event shock\"</b>, did not change the overall bull market situation of U.S. stocks;</p><p>2) Secondly, from<b>Event transactions</b>From the perspective of, each of the four \"close wars\" had one<b>The law of \"contrarian investment strategy\" with obvious winning rate,</b>I.e.: in<b>When the crisis reaches its climax, the best \"buying point\" is when the market is most panicked, and then it will show a \"V-shaped\" reversal:</b>Our statistics show that if you hold at the best \"buy point\" for one month, the average yields for one quarter and half a year are 8.79%, 11.11% and 15.01% respectively.</p><p>As the saying goes, \"Walk to the poor place of water, sit and watch the clouds rise\".<b>Among the four \"near-war\" crises, this \"most panicking moment\" of the best buying point specifically refers to</b>：</p><p><ul><li>During the first Berlin crisis, on June 24, 1948, the Soviet Union completely cut off land and water transportation and freight transportation between the Western Occupied Area and Berlin;</p><p></li><li>During the Second Berlin Crisis, on November 27, 1958, the Soviet Union unilaterally issued an \"ultimatum\" demanding that Britain, the United States and France withdraw their troops from West Berlin within six months;</p><p></li><li>In the third Berlin crisis, at the beginning of July, 1961, Soviet leader Khrushchev announced the suspension of demobilization and increased military expenditure by one third. He made a speech threatening to launch war and step down on West Berlin. US President Kennedy made a tough response, never repeating the appeasement policy, and asked Congress to increase the defense budget by $3.25 billion, recruit some reservists and the National Guard to join the army, expand civil defense and build air defense measures.</p><p></li></ul>During the Cuban Missile Crisis, on October 23, 1962, the Soviet government issued a statement \"resolutely rejecting\" the interception of the United States and \"will carry out the most fierce response\" to the threat of the United States. At the same time, the nuclear missile forces of the United States and the Soviet Union entered the highest alert.</p><p>Among the four \"close to war\" crises, the reason why the world's most panicking moment has become the \"buying point\" with the highest yield of \"contrarian investment strategy\" is,<b>The essence is due to the rapid easing and reversal of the crisis situation itself after the most panicking moment:</b>For example, the first and second Berlin crises ended with the Soviet Union's concessions and lifting the blockade, the third Berlin crisis ended with the Soviet Union's defensive measures to build the Berlin Wall, and the Cuban Missile Crisis ended with the Soviet Union's withdrawal of nuclear missiles deployed in Cuba.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/861c0a673c0c52d0f4b68926ca8c4980\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The profound mechanism behind the high winning rate of \"contrarian investment strategy\": the game strategy of \"close competition\" and \"attack instead of defense\"</b></p><p>We believe that this kind of investment law is not accidental. Behind it is a profound \"close to war\" game strategy and logic of great powers:</p><p>1) First of all, in the context of mutual destruction in nuclear war, as a relatively weak party, whether it is the Soviet Union during the Cold War or Russia today,<b>Policymakers are well aware of the \"catastrophic consequences\" of a real all-out war between big powers on the stability of domestic regimes, so they will try their best to avoid a real war.</b>Since a real war will not break out, the impact on the endogenous fundamentals of U.S. listed companies is relatively controllable and will not change the general trend of U.S. stocks. With the advancement of the Cold War process, the market has gradually priced in the \"background of the era of increasing confrontation between major powers\",<b>Therefore, the impact of the four \"close-to-war\" crises of the \"Cuban Missile Crisis\" on the capital market mostly presents \"event shocks\" in which risk appetite declines in stages.</b></p><p>2) Secondly, the Cuban Missile Crisis-style four \"close to war\"<b>Essence</b>Can be regarded as<b>In the confrontation between great powers, the weaker side adopts the game strategy of \"attacking instead of defending\".</b>In the game of great powers such as the Cold War, facing the aggressive offensive of the more powerful United States and Western camps, for example, before the Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States deployed nuclear weapons in Turkey and other areas close to the hinterland of the Soviet Union. Before this Russia-Ukraine crisis, NATO's constant \"eastward expansion\" and support for Ukraine, etc., the Soviet Union and Russia, as relatively weak parties, can only make the West pay attention to their strategic demands and enhance their leaders' prestige at home by resorting to demonstrating their tough determination and will to fight at war. In this process, it will inevitably be accompanied by the continuous escalation of the situation until there is a certain degree of \"panic\" in the western society as a whole. As far as the capital market is concerned, risk assets will inevitably usher in a certain degree of impact and adjustment in this process.</p><p>By \"replacing defense with attack\", certain strategic goals have been achieved, such as: after enhancing the political prestige of leaders,<b>Policymakers are considering how to get away with a \"winner's posture\" with dignity, which often requires showing a tougher posture and being \"just right\" in essence.</b>For example: in the Berlin crisis, Khrushchev built the Berlin Wall. In this Russia-Ukraine crisis, Putin recognized the \"fait accompli\" of the independence of the two eastern Ukrainian states, ensuring a decent and tough stance and maintaining the minimum geopolitical status quo.<b>This is also the crisis itself of \"close to war\", which is approaching the \"end\" when it reaches the \"climax\", and the high winning rate of the \"contrarian investment strategy\"-the most panicked moment in the capital market is easy to form the \"best buying point\" mechanism behind it.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/284f49f50776fd64467a9af18a5296f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>IV. Conclusion: \"End\" and \"Opening\"</b></p><p><b>The \"end\" under the \"climax\":</b>To sum up, no matter the logical deduction from the interests and game strategies of all parties in this Russia-Ukraine crisis: the interests of all parties have achieved \"equilibrium\" at the current point in time, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis is currently approaching the most panicking \"climax\", which itself It also means that it may \"end\" at any time. Therefore, the risk of a full-scale war and strong sanctions on Russian crude oil that the market is most worried about will most likely not happen.</p><p>Or from the impact of previous \"close-to-war\" big power games on the market: when the market is most panicked, the \"reverse investment strategy\" of buying risky assets such as equity and selling crude oil can always achieve obvious excess returns. Both indicate:<b>At the current point in time, there is a high probability that risky assets such as stocks have bottomed out in stages, so investors in the equity market need not be pessimistic; On the contrary, commodities such as crude oil, which are currently the most excited, may peak in stages, and investors should treat them with moderate caution.</b></p><p><b>The \"beginning\" of the \"era of great changes\":</b>Although the Russia-Ukraine crisis itself is about to \"end\" in the \"climax\", from a medium and long-term perspective, due to the existing international legal system and the post-Cold War geopolitical order in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, it has suffered a clear impact for the first time, so this Russia-Ukraine crisis may herald a<b>A new era of \"great changes\"</b>The arrival of, namely:<b>The game between major powers continues to intensify, the insecurity among countries is increasing day by day, and the weight of security in the supply chains of various countries is increasingly higher than that of economic efficiency itself.</b></p><p>In this sense, the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is both the \"end\" and the \"beginning\", and the \"beginning\" of the \"era of great changes\" is also under the Russia-Ukraine crisis.<b>The real medium-and long-term investment opportunities truly bred by the capital market lie in: domestic substitution and supply chain security such as domestic materials in the upstream of semiconductors, software ecosystem supporting Huawei's domestic chips, OEMs in the military industry</b>The relevant sub-sectors may usher in more support from policies, resources, funds, etc. in the new era of \"big changes\", which deserves investors' attention.</p><p>Risk warning: The Russia-Ukraine crisis has seen an unexpected \"black swan\", and the trend of crude oil, stock market, etc. has changed beyond expectations due to other factors.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00745cd781f91ef6ef359064c639fbb","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120561496","content_text":"引  言俄乌危机演绎：“行到水穷处，坐看云起时”。近期，俄罗斯总统普京宣布承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国并宣布驻军、发表强硬演讲，同时，美国宣布美军防御准备状态已升至3级（与古巴导弹危机同级），并开始对俄罗斯实施金融制裁。受这一风险事件影响，全球市场大幅波动：原油价格一度跳升至接近100美元/桶，欧美等全球主要资本市场股指普遍下跌2%左右，而事件中心的俄罗斯MOEX指数更是连续两天最大跌幅接近10%。俄乌危机之所以引发全球市场如此大的波动，其核心在于全球投资者的两个担心：1）市场担心此后俄罗斯与乌克兰，乃至其引发战火的风险；2）市场担心普京此举，将引发美、欧空前严厉的制裁，如：将俄罗斯原油剔除全球原油供应系统，这将改变原油等大宗商品供求，并加剧全球通胀。但我们认为：投资者此时无需恐慌，俄乌危机的最高潮或许也意味着其即将“落幕”，无论就俄乌危机本身，市场担心的两大风险——战争风险与俄罗斯能源强制裁风险，大概率不会发生；还是就历次“接近战争”的危机中，最为恐慌的时刻“逆势投资策略”反而收益率最高的历史规律或均预示着：以股票为代表的风险资产大概率阶段性“触底”，而原油价格或大概率阶段性“见顶”。我们将从本次俄乌危机各方的博弈策略与利益“均衡点”分析，历史上四次“接近战争”的大国博弈中“逆势投资”策略的收益率规律，以及这种“逆势投资”策略之所以有效背后的大国博弈逻辑等多个维度出发阐述上述观点。一、俄乌“大棋局”：棋桌上的各棋手在想什么？1. 俄罗斯：维持《明斯克协议》“现状”与提升普京国内“威望“本次俄乌危机的爆发的原因要追溯到2014年乌克兰政局动荡下，普京在进军克里米亚的同时，支持俄罗斯族占多数的东乌克兰的顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克地区事实独立。实际上，自2014年以来，上述地区就一直被俄罗斯武装所控制，只是过去几年，俄罗斯从不公开承认这些地方是俄罗斯控制的，而声称是当地“亲俄民兵”所为。2015年，在西方的协调下，也迫使乌克兰签署了事实上承认了东乌克兰独立地位的《明斯克协议》（包括：乌克兰政府军从该地区撤出，同意当地自治等）自2015年乌克兰政局逐步稳定以来，出于乌克兰自身国家利益的考虑，其不断要求修改《明斯克协议》，同时，在政治上不断试图向北约靠拢，在军事上不断攻击东乌克兰上述两个地区的当地武装，并取得一定程度进展。这对于俄罗斯和普京的国内支持率不断产生困扰。因此，本次俄乌危机，虽然普京给出了：“北约停止东扩，部署退回1997年以前，放弃在乌克兰、东欧、外高加索、中亚的任何军事活动”等宏大目标，但其真正的“底线主张”或仍是：阻止乌克兰加入北约以及维护顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克事实独立的“现状”。俄罗斯本希望借助与美欧外交渠道来迫使乌克兰继续接受《明斯克协议》下的“现状”，在外交努力无果后，或通过公开承认这两个地区的独立与俄罗斯武装存在的做法，借以吓阻乌克兰采取进一步行动。对于普京而言，其更为重要的目的在于提升其在国内的威望：近年来，伴随俄罗斯经济下行，2020年其官方统计的支持率已较其历史最高时期下滑20%，同时，俄罗斯国内，纳尔瓦尼等反对派游行亦对其产生冲击。普京的乌克兰讲话看似强硬的背后，将乌克兰问题的根源归结为“前苏联的错误实践”与“北约的背信弃义”，其目的也是在于打击其国内“左”和“右”的政治对手。正是由于普京提升国内威望的基本政治目标，以及俄罗斯实力明显逊于西方阵营的客观现实，这决定了其或会通过制造局势的紧张，来吓阻西方并提升国内士气，但会千方百计回避突破西方“底线”且对其政权稳定产生致命冲击的真正战争，如：普京在本次危机期间，反复强调，“试图将俄罗斯引入战争是西方的阴谋”。同时，在达成政治目的后，迅速体面地全身而退，也即：“接近战争”而不“实质战争”的策略。那么俄罗斯面临的西方的“底线”又是什么呢？2. 美国：借助渲染危机，重新获得对欧洲主导权对于美国而言，由于其当前战略重心已完全转向聚焦亚太。其并不希望被东欧分散过多力量，因此，在接受“明斯克协议”即维持“现状”的基础上，给予乌克兰一定支持是其核心战略利益。故乌克兰试图加入北约的主张本身就很难被美国所接受。而维持“现状”更是与俄罗斯利益交往更密切的德国、法国等欧洲国家的共同立场所在。其对于俄罗斯进行严厉能源制裁等威胁的核心出发点，均在于防止俄罗斯可能的进一步入侵乌克兰并改变“现状”。就本次俄乌危机而言，拜登一方面希望借此机会通过彰显强硬，来挽救其去年阿富汗撤军以来其国内岌岌可危的支持率。另一方面，借助对俄罗斯“入侵”乌克兰的渲染，强化了欧洲国家的恐慌及对美国的依赖，借机弥合2016年特朗普“美国优先”以来造成的美欧关系隔阂，重新掌握对欧洲关系的主导权。作为2014年克里米亚危机和《明斯克协议》的实际利益最大受损方，乌克兰是本次危机中最为希望“打破现状”的“破局者”，但其实力最为弱小的现实，使得其亦希望通过渲染危机，试图将美国等西方直接拉进来，以实现“破局”。二、俄乌危机的“高潮”与“落幕”：美国与普京或实现“双赢”的“均衡点”通过对俄乌危机中各参与方的根本利益诉求的分析，就不难得出，当前俄乌危机的“高潮”不仅不是市场担心的全面战争、能源强制裁等“大戏”的开始，反而是“落幕”前的“终章”，其根本原因在于，各方利益在当前时点已实现“均衡”，而再进一步，则各方利益都将承受不可承担之损失。1. 就普京与俄罗斯而言：强硬声明背后，实际仅是“既成事实”的承认。此次事件强化了普京在国内民族主义者的权威，并有效打击了其国内潜在政治对手。虽然其要求北约回到1997等宏伟目标并未实现，但阻止乌克兰加入北约和通过公开宣布承认两个地区独立和俄罗斯武装存在，阻止乌克兰不断采取的军事收复的行动，使其可以足够体面的“全身而退”；而由于其做法如同乌克兰总理所言，仅是“俄罗斯合法化自己的军队，这实际上自 2014 年以来就在顿巴斯存在了”。并无进一步进攻基辅等扩大化的行为，因此，也避免触及美欧的“红线”。需要指出的是，这一与现有“国际法体系”毕竟有违的行为，增加了俄罗斯在国际社会，特别是西方世界的被孤立程度，这或许也算是其支付的某种代价。2. 就美国而言：只要“现状”维持，就不会实施严厉的能源制裁。此次拜登通过彰显强硬，一方面，有助于改善其在阿富汗事件后国内偏软弱的形象；更重要的是，美国通过本次危机下欧盟，特别是东欧各成员国对于所谓 “俄罗斯要恢复苏联国土”的严重不安全感，严重削弱了欧盟内部“亲俄派”，重启了北约内部协调机制，指挥丹麦、西班牙、意大利、法国等国的军队向东欧部署，进而全方位强化对欧盟控制，也使得德国主动取消了美欧关系此前的一个重要阻碍——俄罗斯“北溪二号”天然气管道项目。由于维持“现状”是除乌克兰外的各方利益共识，而俄罗斯当前所为并没有改变“现状”，只是对既成事实的“公开化”。因此欧美不会对俄罗斯进行严重制裁（只会象征性制裁，如同当前的仅对卢甘斯克、顿涅斯克两个地区进行投资限制与相关官员进行制裁，故美国制裁措施公布后，俄罗斯股市、美股均大涨，而原油价格大跌）：白宫与英国政府表示“如果俄罗斯进一步入侵发生，将会有更严厉的制裁”。作为利益受损的一方，乌克兰依然是本次危机的输家，紧张的局势使得外资大幅撤离，经济深受影响，改变“明斯克协议”现状的目标也并未实现，但乌克兰相对弱小的实力，以及东乌克兰本身宗教、民族的矛盾，使得其不得不阶段性接受现状，故乌克兰总统在俄罗斯宣示后，亦表示“我们想要和平”。当然需要指出的是，乌克兰出于自身国家与民族利益的认知，很难长期接受当前“现状”，因此，从中长期看，东乌克兰地区或仍将不断产生新的冲突与对抗。三、“行到水穷处，坐看云起时”——历史复盘下的四次“接近战争”危机对资本市场的影响上文中，我们通过逻辑，推演了本次俄乌危机中各方的利益与博弈“均衡点”，指出这种“接近战争”危机的“高潮”，也即临近“落幕”，市场担心的战争与俄罗斯能源制裁不会发生，故相关风险资产价格或阶段性“触底”而原油等价格则或阶段性“见顶”。那么历史上类似的“接近战争”风险下，资本市场的真实表现是否遵循这一规律呢？1. 普京下的俄罗斯吞并格鲁吉亚、克里米亚对原油的影响：危机落地即油价见顶首先，我们从最近20年，两次俄罗斯与周边国家冲突，和西方的制裁威胁出发，研究地缘风险下原油价格走势的规律，可以发现：2008年08月俄罗斯的格鲁吉亚战争与2014年3月俄罗斯吞并克里米亚，基本上危机高潮落地之时即是原油价格见顶之时。其原因在于：通过梳理这两次危机之后的西方对俄罗斯制裁措施，可以发现：西方的制裁仅是对俄罗斯部分官员的个人制裁与涉事区域的局部制裁，市场此前所担心的强能源制裁并未发生。这背后的原因在于，普京非常“精准”地选择了西方当时所忽视的“空白”地带，回避了西方的“红线”，如：2008年在格鲁吉亚“间接地带”动武，这得益于西方对这一区域的漠不关心；2014年在克里米亚和乌克兰东部的“代理人攻势”，则借助了乌克兰内部政权更替的混乱以及历史法律的混乱下西方世界的犹豫。对于原油价格而言，由于在此前危机发酵过程当中被过度透支了强能源制裁和原油供给短缺的预期，并且囤积了大量的“获利盘”，故当危机落地，制裁力度明显低于预期之时，被过度拉高的油价和失衡的筹码结构都将驱动油价“见顶”，并出现长达2年以上级别的调整。2. 四次“接近战争”危机对资本市场的影响：“逆势投资策略”胜算几何？就危机性质而言，本次俄乌危机中，西方与俄罗斯的对峙烈度是远大于2008年格鲁吉亚危机和2014年克里米亚危机时。如果说，前两次事件西方是漠不关心或措手不及，那么，此次危机中美国将防御准备状态提升至3级，与古巴导弹危机同级，基本是针锋相对的“接近战争”状态，那么历史上，这种“接近战争”的危机下，全球资本市场又将如何演绎呢？实际上，在冷战期间，这种“接近战争”的大国对峙一共发生过四次：1948年6月的第一次柏林危机，1958年底的第二次柏林危机，1961年年中的第三次柏林危机与1962年10月的古巴导弹危机。通过观察这些时期的美股表现，可以发现：1） 首先，从大势角度看，除了第一次柏林危机，因为爆发在二战后不久，引发全球投资者对于第三次世界大战爆发的担忧，进而引发了美股接近一年左右的调整外，其余两次柏林危机与古巴导弹危机对道琼斯指数的影响均属最多1-2个月的“事件性冲击”，没有改变美股整体大牛市的情况；2） 其次，从事件交易的角度看，四次“接近战争” 均有一个胜率明显的“逆势投资策略”的规律，即：在危机发展到最高潮，市场最为恐慌的时候就是最佳的“买入点”，其后将呈现“V型”反转：我们统计发现，在最佳“买入点”持有一个月，一个季度和半年的平均收益率分别为8.79%、11.11%及15.01%。正所谓“行到水穷处，坐看云起时”。四次“接近战争”危机中，这种最佳买入点的“最恐慌时刻”具体指的是：第一次柏林危机中，1948年6月24日，苏联全面切断西占区与柏林的水陆交通及货运；第二次柏林危机中，1958年11月27日，苏联单方面发出“最后通牒”，要求英美法六个月内撤出西柏林驻军；第三次柏林危机中，1961年7月初，苏联领导人赫鲁晓夫宣布暂停复员，并将军费增加三分之一，发表讲话威胁将发动战争，踏平西柏林，美国总统肯尼迪作出强硬反应，绝不容重演绥靖政策，要求国会增加32.5亿美元的国防预算，征召部分后备役人员及国民警卫队入伍，扩大民防及修筑防空措施；古巴导弹危机中，1962年10月23日，苏联政府发表声明，“坚决拒绝”美国的拦截，对美国的威胁“将进行最激烈的回击”，同时，美苏双方核导弹部队进入最高警戒。四次“接近战争”的危机中，全球最恐慌时刻之所以成为“逆势投资策略”收益率最高的“买入点”，本质是由于最恐慌时刻之后，危机局势本身的迅速缓解和反转：如：第一次、第二次柏林危机以苏联的让步和解除封锁告终，第三次柏林危机，以苏联修建柏林墙的防御式措施结束，而古巴导弹危机则以苏联撤出在古巴部署的核导弹收场。3.“逆势投资策略”高胜率背后的深刻机制：“接近争”与“以攻代守”的博弈策略我们认为，这种投资规律不是偶然，这背后是有着深刻的“接近战争”的大国博弈策略和逻辑：1） 首先，在核战争相互毁灭的背景下，作为实力相对弱小的一方，无论是冷战时的苏联还是当前的俄罗斯，决策者均深知真正的大国间全面战争对于国内政权稳定的“灾难性后果”，因此，会极力避免发生真正的战争。既然真实的战争不会爆发，那么对美股上市公司内生基本面的影响就相对可控，不会改变美股的大趋势且伴随冷战过程的推进，市场逐步定价了“大国对抗增多的时代背景”，故“古巴导弹危机”式的四次“接近战争”危机对于资本市场的影响多呈现风险偏好阶段性下行的“事件性冲击”。2） 其次，古巴导弹危机式的四次“接近战争”的本质可以视为大国对抗中，实力较为弱小的一方，“以攻代守”的博弈策略。在诸如冷战这样的大国博弈之中，面对实力更为强大的美国和西方阵营咄咄逼人的攻势，如：古巴导弹危机前，美国在土耳其等接近苏联腹地的地区部署核武器，本次俄乌危机前，北约不断的“东扩”与对乌克兰的支持等，作为实力相对弱小一方的苏联和俄罗斯，只有诉诸于彰显强硬的不惜战争的决心和意志才能让西方重视自己的战略诉求并提升领导人在国内的威望。在这一过程中，必然伴随着不断的局势升级，直至让西方社会整体产生某种程度“恐慌”为止，就资本市场而言，风险资产必然在这一过程中迎来一定程度的冲击和调整。通过“以攻代守”，实现了一定的战略目标，诸如：提升领导人政治威望等之后，决策者考虑的是怎样以“胜利者姿态”，体面的全身而退，而这往往需要展示更加强硬的姿态，并在实质上的“恰到好处”，诸如：柏林危机中，赫鲁晓夫修建了柏林墙，本次俄乌危机中，普京通过承认乌克兰东部两个州独立的“既成事实”，确保以体面的强硬姿态，维持了最低程度的地缘现状。这也是这种“接近战争”的危机本身，行至“高潮”即渐近“落幕”，以及“逆势投资策略”高胜率——资本市场最恐慌的时刻反而容易形成“最佳买点”的背后机制。四、结语：“落幕”与“开篇”“高潮”下的“落幕”：综上，无论从本次俄乌危机中各方利益与博弈策略出发的逻辑推演：各方利益在当前时点已实现“均衡”，俄乌危机事件当前渐近最恐慌的“高潮”，本身也意味着随时可能“落幕”，因此，市场最为担心的全面战争与俄罗斯原油被强制裁风险大概率不会发生。还是从历次“接近战争”的大国博弈对市场的影响：在市场最恐慌之时，买入权益等风险资产，卖出原油的“逆向投资策略”总能取得明显超额收益的历史规律。均预示着：当前时间点股票等风险资产大概率已阶段性触底，故权益市场投资者无需悲观；反而当前情绪最为亢奋的原油等商品或阶段性见顶，投资者宜适度谨慎对待。“大变局时代”的“开篇”：虽然就本次俄乌危机本身而言，即将在“高潮”中迎来“落幕”，但是，从中长视角看，由于现有国际法体系与冷战后的地缘秩序在本次俄乌危机中，首次遭受了明确的冲击，因此，本次俄乌危机或预示了一个新的“大变局”时代的到来，即：大国间博弈不断加剧，国家间的不安全感与日俱增，安全在各国供应链中的权重越来越高于经济效率本身。从这个意义上看，当前俄乌危机既是“落幕”又是“开篇”，而“大变局时代”的“开篇”也或是俄乌危机下，资本市场的真正孕育的真正中长期投资机会所在：半导体上游国产材料、华为国产芯片所配套的软件生态系统、军工中的主机厂等国产替代与供应链安全的相关细分板块或将在新的“大变局”时代迎来更多的政策、资源、资金等的支持，值得投资者重点关注。风险提示：俄乌危机出现超预期“黑天鹅”，原油、股市等因为其他因素变化走势超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}