LeonTeh personal page - To The Moon

LeonTeh

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2022-12-04

$LION-OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$

2022-11-13

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

2022-11-12

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

2022-10-29

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

2022-12-12

$美国超微公司(AMD)$

2022-12-06

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

2022-11-29

$美国超微公司(AMD)$

2022-11-27

$美国超微公司(AMD)$

2022-11-20

$美国超微公司(AMD)$

2022-11-17

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$

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年，Twitter用了24 個月，Facebook用了10個月，Dropbox用了7個月，Spotify用了5個月，Instagram用了2.5個月。而ChatGPT，只用了5 天。沒錯，在ChatGPT誕生的頭一週，科技界對它的討論達到了高潮，其CEO也很快宣佈ChatGPT的用戶超過了100萬，其引發的討論狂潮讓沉悶的科技行業再次變得興奮。然而，短短兩週之後，業界對於ChatGPT的討論明顯就下降了，當初泛起的驚濤駭浪已逐漸歸於平靜。我觀察了一圈那些當初極其熱烈討論ChatGPT的意見領袖和媒體，現在幾乎鮮有討論了。我這麼說是有數據支撐的，百度指數、微信指數、谷歌趨勢三個指數熱度斷崖式下降證明了這一點：百度指數微信指數谷歌趨勢同時，這幾天幾乎看不到ChatGPT網站反應卡頓，也證明了其流量或許已歸於平常。如何解釋這個現象？是因爲ChatGPT還不夠革命嗎？是因爲它對大陸用戶不夠友好嗎？是因爲ChatGPT其實沒有什麼用嗎？今天衛夕就和大家一起認真來聊一下這件事——一、霍桑效應的一種解釋：人們總是對短期的變化充滿熱情首先，我想說：一個新的事物出現，人們在短期內對其熱情高漲，但熱情過後又歸於平靜是再正常不過的事。我們從1930年代的一次工廠管理實驗開始說起——1924年至1927年，在伊利諾伊州西塞羅的西電的霍桑工廠，管理層爲了提高製造繼電器的工人的工作效率，決定對工人的光照條件進行改變。結果發現，無論是燈光變的更暗還是變得更亮，工人們的工作效率在短期內都提高了，甚至僅僅是清除地板障礙物或者是重新安置工作站這類改變，都可以在短期內提高生產率。這種因爲不同改變導致短期生產力提升的現象後來被稱之爲“霍桑效應”（Hawthorne effect）對於霍桑效應，其中一種解釋是：人們會因爲改變帶來的新鮮感產生了激勵效應。沒錯，人們總是喜歡","listText":"從0到100萬用戶，Netflix用了3.5 年，Twitter用了24 個月，Facebook用了10個月，Dropbox用了7個月，Spotify用了5個月，Instagram用了2.5個月。而ChatGPT，只用了5 天。沒錯，在ChatGPT誕生的頭一週，科技界對它的討論達到了高潮，其CEO也很快宣佈ChatGPT的用戶超過了100萬，其引發的討論狂潮讓沉悶的科技行業再次變得興奮。然而，短短兩週之後，業界對於ChatGPT的討論明顯就下降了，當初泛起的驚濤駭浪已逐漸歸於平靜。我觀察了一圈那些當初極其熱烈討論ChatGPT的意見領袖和媒體，現在幾乎鮮有討論了。我這麼說是有數據支撐的，百度指數、微信指數、谷歌趨勢三個指數熱度斷崖式下降證明了這一點：百度指數微信指數谷歌趨勢同時，這幾天幾乎看不到ChatGPT網站反應卡頓，也證明了其流量或許已歸於平常。如何解釋這個現象？是因爲ChatGPT還不夠革命嗎？是因爲它對大陸用戶不夠友好嗎？是因爲ChatGPT其實沒有什麼用嗎？今天衛夕就和大家一起認真來聊一下這件事——一、霍桑效應的一種解釋：人們總是對短期的變化充滿熱情首先，我想說：一個新的事物出現，人們在短期內對其熱情高漲，但熱情過後又歸於平靜是再正常不過的事。我們從1930年代的一次工廠管理實驗開始說起——1924年至1927年，在伊利諾伊州西塞羅的西電的霍桑工廠，管理層爲了提高製造繼電器的工人的工作效率，決定對工人的光照條件進行改變。結果發現，無論是燈光變的更暗還是變得更亮，工人們的工作效率在短期內都提高了，甚至僅僅是清除地板障礙物或者是重新安置工作站這類改變，都可以在短期內提高生產率。這種因爲不同改變導致短期生產力提升的現象後來被稱之爲“霍桑效應”（Hawthorne effect）對於霍桑效應，其中一種解釋是：人們會因爲改變帶來的新鮮感產生了激勵效應。沒錯，人們總是喜歡","text":"從0到100萬用戶，Netflix用了3.5 年，Twitter用了24 個月，Facebook用了10個月，Dropbox用了7個月，Spotify用了5個月，Instagram用了2.5個月。而ChatGPT，只用了5 天。沒錯，在ChatGPT誕生的頭一週，科技界對它的討論達到了高潮，其CEO也很快宣佈ChatGPT的用戶超過了100萬，其引發的討論狂潮讓沉悶的科技行業再次變得興奮。然而，短短兩週之後，業界對於ChatGPT的討論明顯就下降了，當初泛起的驚濤駭浪已逐漸歸於平靜。我觀察了一圈那些當初極其熱烈討論ChatGPT的意見領袖和媒體，現在幾乎鮮有討論了。我這麼說是有數據支撐的，百度指數、微信指數、谷歌趨勢三個指數熱度斷崖式下降證明了這一點：百度指數微信指數谷歌趨勢同時，這幾天幾乎看不到ChatGPT網站反應卡頓，也證明了其流量或許已歸於平常。如何解釋這個現象？是因爲ChatGPT還不夠革命嗎？是因爲它對大陸用戶不夠友好嗎？是因爲ChatGPT其實沒有什麼用嗎？今天衛夕就和大家一起認真來聊一下這件事——一、霍桑效應的一種解釋：人們總是對短期的變化充滿熱情首先，我想說：一個新的事物出現，人們在短期內對其熱情高漲，但熱情過後又歸於平靜是再正常不過的事。我們從1930年代的一次工廠管理實驗開始說起——1924年至1927年，在伊利諾伊州西塞羅的西電的霍桑工廠，管理層爲了提高製造繼電器的工人的工作效率，決定對工人的光照條件進行改變。結果發現，無論是燈光變的更暗還是變得更亮，工人們的工作效率在短期內都提高了，甚至僅僅是清除地板障礙物或者是重新安置工作站這類改變，都可以在短期內提高生產率。這種因爲不同改變導致短期生產力提升的現象後來被稱之爲“霍桑效應”（Hawthorne effect）對於霍桑效應，其中一種解釋是：人們會因爲改變帶來的新鮮感產生了激勵效應。沒錯，人們總是喜歡","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f991de5747a848aa9bd8e9e66ceb7d0d","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e04936053a4991ada0a0a37d83de6e","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94a3a57eb99f4b5aaa8dcc9d18293781","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/623478826","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923291176,"gmtCreate":1670859445795,"gmtModify":1676538447795,"author":{"id":"3581983337716959","authorId":"3581983337716959","name":"LeonTeh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581983337716959","authorIdStr":"3581983337716959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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PMI作爲經濟運行的先行指標，11月份錄得數據較10月份繼續回落（6月50.2%、7月49.0%、8月49.4%、9月50.1%、10月49.2%、11月48.0%），體現出當前我國經濟受國內疫情點多面廣頻發，國際環境更趨複雜嚴峻等多重因素影響，內生性復甦動能不足，經濟恢復發展基礎需進一步穩固。往未來看，四季度經濟運行對全年經濟十分重要，穩經濟政策落實需抓住時間窗口，着力穩定市場預期，提振市場主體信心。 首先，從構成製造業PMI的5個分類指數來看，製造業產需兩端繼續放緩，外需進一步走弱，就業形勢依然嚴峻。具體來看，生產指數爲47.8%，比上月下降1.8個百分點；新訂單指數爲46.4%，比上月下降1.7個百分點；原材料庫存指數爲46.7%，比上月下降1.0個百分點；從業人員指數爲47.4%，比上月下降0.9個百分點；供應商配送時間指數爲46.7%，比上月下降0.4個百分點。其中，產需指數分別下降1.8個百分點與1.7個百分點，均低於臨界點，表明整體制造業產需兩端繼續放緩，恢復力度仍需加強。新出口訂單指數爲46.7%，比上月下降0.9個百分點，表明外需進一步走弱，更需內需發力。此外，從業人員指數爲47.4%，比上月下降0.9個百分點，爲今年以來次低值（4月從業人員指數爲47.2%），並長期低於臨界點，表明就業形勢依然嚴峻。筆者認爲，當前穩經濟政策應以擴大內需爲主，通過保市場主體來保就業。 其次，從大、中、小型企業PMI來看，均處於收縮區間。","listText":"張奧平/文&nbsp;11月30日，國家統計局發佈了2022年11月製造業採購經理指數、非製造業商務活動指數、綜合PMI產出指數。其中，製造業採購經理指數（PMI）爲48.0%，比上月下降1.2個百分點，低於臨界點；非製造業商務活動指數和綜合PMI產出指數分別爲46.7%和47.1%，分別比上月下降2個百分點與1.9個百分點，均低於臨界點。 PMI作爲經濟運行的先行指標，11月份錄得數據較10月份繼續回落（6月50.2%、7月49.0%、8月49.4%、9月50.1%、10月49.2%、11月48.0%），體現出當前我國經濟受國內疫情點多面廣頻發，國際環境更趨複雜嚴峻等多重因素影響，內生性復甦動能不足，經濟恢復發展基礎需進一步穩固。往未來看，四季度經濟運行對全年經濟十分重要，穩經濟政策落實需抓住時間窗口，着力穩定市場預期，提振市場主體信心。 首先，從構成製造業PMI的5個分類指數來看，製造業產需兩端繼續放緩，外需進一步走弱，就業形勢依然嚴峻。具體來看，生產指數爲47.8%，比上月下降1.8個百分點；新訂單指數爲46.4%，比上月下降1.7個百分點；原材料庫存指數爲46.7%，比上月下降1.0個百分點；從業人員指數爲47.4%，比上月下降0.9個百分點；供應商配送時間指數爲46.7%，比上月下降0.4個百分點。其中，產需指數分別下降1.8個百分點與1.7個百分點，均低於臨界點，表明整體制造業產需兩端繼續放緩，恢復力度仍需加強。新出口訂單指數爲46.7%，比上月下降0.9個百分點，表明外需進一步走弱，更需內需發力。此外，從業人員指數爲47.4%，比上月下降0.9個百分點，爲今年以來次低值（4月從業人員指數爲47.2%），並長期低於臨界點，表明就業形勢依然嚴峻。筆者認爲，當前穩經濟政策應以擴大內需爲主，通過保市場主體來保就業。 其次，從大、中、小型企業PMI來看，均處於收縮區間。","text":"張奧平/文 11月30日，國家統計局發佈了2022年11月製造業採購經理指數、非製造業商務活動指數、綜合PMI產出指數。其中，製造業採購經理指數（PMI）爲48.0%，比上月下降1.2個百分點，低於臨界點；非製造業商務活動指數和綜合PMI產出指數分別爲46.7%和47.1%，分別比上月下降2個百分點與1.9個百分點，均低於臨界點。 PMI作爲經濟運行的先行指標，11月份錄得數據較10月份繼續回落（6月50.2%、7月49.0%、8月49.4%、9月50.1%、10月49.2%、11月48.0%），體現出當前我國經濟受國內疫情點多面廣頻發，國際環境更趨複雜嚴峻等多重因素影響，內生性復甦動能不足，經濟恢復發展基礎需進一步穩固。往未來看，四季度經濟運行對全年經濟十分重要，穩經濟政策落實需抓住時間窗口，着力穩定市場預期，提振市場主體信心。 首先，從構成製造業PMI的5個分類指數來看，製造業產需兩端繼續放緩，外需進一步走弱，就業形勢依然嚴峻。具體來看，生產指數爲47.8%，比上月下降1.8個百分點；新訂單指數爲46.4%，比上月下降1.7個百分點；原材料庫存指數爲46.7%，比上月下降1.0個百分點；從業人員指數爲47.4%，比上月下降0.9個百分點；供應商配送時間指數爲46.7%，比上月下降0.4個百分點。其中，產需指數分別下降1.8個百分點與1.7個百分點，均低於臨界點，表明整體制造業產需兩端繼續放緩，恢復力度仍需加強。新出口訂單指數爲46.7%，比上月下降0.9個百分點，表明外需進一步走弱，更需內需發力。此外，從業人員指數爲47.4%，比上月下降0.9個百分點，爲今年以來次低值（4月從業人員指數爲47.2%），並長期低於臨界點，表明就業形勢依然嚴峻。筆者認爲，當前穩經濟政策應以擴大內需爲主，通過保市場主體來保就業。 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