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XiaoHui_0906
2021-07-20
Lublin?
"First Brother" Zhang Kun's Rare Reflection: It will be more difficult to make money in the next five years
XiaoHui_0906
2021-07-20
Juju?
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How do you view the correction of Internet and education stocks and the decline of pig prices in the past period?</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun's rare \"reflection\"</b></p><p><b>Declining returns are hard to avoid in the coming years</b></p><p>When the market pulled back at the beginning of the year, someone created an emoticon of \"escape quickly\". The second quarterly report shows that neither Zhang Kun nor his Christians \"ran\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635934407b37961d39c73cbe12e0623d\" tg-width=\"119\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of the end of the second quarter, Zhang Kun's management scale reached 134.478 billion yuan, a slight increase from 133.109 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter.</p><p><b>While reflecting on his past investment process, he \"found many mistakes\" and lamented the difficulty of future investment.</b></p><p>He pointed out that after the epidemic, with the relaxation of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some companies, if all assumptions are fulfilled, they may be able to earn a discount rate or a yield level slightly higher than the discount rate in the next five years, but<b>Once you make a mistake, you may face a 30% or even 50% stock price drop.</b></p><p><b>In the next few years, the competition faced by many industries may be more intense than in the past five years, and the difficulty of judging the competition pattern of industries in the next five years may only increase.</b>If it is correct, it may only get a mediocre rate of return, but once it is wrong, it will face a lot of losses.</p><p>\"I often look at the portfolio like this. If the stock market is suspended and trading resumes after 5 years, how much expected compound rate of return can each company bring?<b>Judging from the current judgment, the decline in the expected rate of return in the next few years may be inevitable.</b>\"Zhang Kun said in the quarterly report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b85481b6cde0aa5f5a91da45033c97\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun reduces holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Maotai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>, Masukura<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Postal Savings</b></p><p>Compared with the first quarter report of 2021, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all declined to varying degrees in the second quarter.</p><p>Wherein,<b>E Fund's small and medium-cap stock positions fell the most</b>, the proportion of its stock market value to the fund's net asset value dropped significantly from 94.58% at the end of the first quarter to about 71.07%, a decrease of about 24 percentage points.</p><p><b>This is also the lowest stock position at the end of the quarter during the E Fund small and medium-cap fund managed by Zhang Kun, second only to the 72.19% in the 2017 interim report.</b></p><p>E Fund's blue-chip stock positions decreased by about 2 percentage points, and E Fund's Asia Select and E Fund's high-quality enterprise positions decreased by about 4-5 percentage points. The stock positions of these three funds are all around 90%.</p><p>In the second quarter, some heavyweight stocks pulled back, which obviously touched Zhang Kun. Overall, Zhang Kun is more hesitant about the heavily held computer and consumer goods industries, and more optimistic about banking, real estate, electronics, medicine and other industries.</p><p>Looking at specific positions,<b>E Fund Asia's selected heavy warehouse portfolio also shows that TAL,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>, STAAR Surgical Co Exits Top 10 Awkward Holdings</b>Postal Savings Bank of China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">China Overseas LOI</a>Limited company,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Kun specifically mentioned in E Fund Asia Selection,<b>In the second quarter, the stock prices of education and training companies fell sharply due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the net value of the fund. This also made him reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework, hoping to further improve them.</b></p><p>E Fund's top ten small and medium-cap holdings remain unchanged, focusing on increasing holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600570\">Hang Seng Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002007\">Hualan Bio</a>, focusing on reducing holdings with huge gains in the previous period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">Tongce Medical</a>, Maotai, Wuliangye.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072a6f03ba48e67f484c88af03c90da0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Among the top ten holdings of E Fund's blue chip second quarterly report, compared with the first quarterly report,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">Aier Ophthalmology</a>For new entrants into the top ten heavyweight stocks</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">Ping An Bank</a>Then exit the top ten. However, at the time of the fourth quarter report of 2020, Aier Ophthalmology was also among the top ten blue-chip holdings of E Fund, and the change in the number of shares held at that time was not big.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a39090f4f108246e7c600c4ba28cd96\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af077204d412ddabad74578a87b1942c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"78\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Information on the top ten heavyweight stocks of E Fund's high-quality enterprises shows that Aier Ophthalmology and Ping An Bank have entered the top ten heavyweight stocks, Hualan Bio,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">Jinxin Fertility</a>Then exit the top ten Awkwardness stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e29a92a03c39520257974a13d307451\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Liu Gesong adds \"global comparative advantage\" manufacturing industry</b></p><p>In the second quarterly report of GF Small Cap, Liu Gesong emphasized that in the second quarter, he focused on investigating listed Chinese manufacturing companies with \"global comparative advantages\" such as photovoltaic industry chain, power batteries, new chemical materials, and panels.<b>It is still believed that the profitability of such manufacturing assets is expected to maintain a relatively long boom cycle, and the valuation expansion of such manufacturing assets has not deviated from the boom range, and a considerable number of assets have high cost performance.</b></p><p>In the second quarter, the fund further increased the allocation ratio of manufacturing industries with \"global comparative advantages\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51323b149b079c0698e47f8fff7b72be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of changes in positions, the fund increased its holdings by 3.5665 million shares in the second quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi shares</a>, holding a total of 18.0015 million shares. The company's stock price has recently emerged from the \"pit\" of the sharp drop after the year and hit a record high, with an increase of 41.66% in the second quarter. Therefore, the fund holds its market value of 1.599 billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of the net value. Reaching 10.86%, it is its first holding.</p><p>Furthermore,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300347\">Tigermed</a>Exit the top ten awkward stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Xiaokang shares</a>Newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks.</b></p><p>The previous announcement will reveal that GF Small Cap participated in the subscription of Xiaokang's non-public offering of shares. This part of the stocks with restricted circulation accounts for about 1.68% of the net asset value of the fund.</p><p>The second quarterly report shows that Xiaokang shares account for about 4.58% of the net value. In other words, in the second quarter, in addition to participating in the fixed increase, Liu Gesong also bought Xiaokang shares in the secondary market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660d1a035fd3f8e3bc6be39aec16dc3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The stock price of Xiaokang shares at the beginning of the year was around 15 yuan, and it once exceeded 83 yuan in June, an increase of more than 450%. Subsequently, the stock price pulled back and closed at 65.75 yuan at noon on July 20.</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>Xiao Nan aggressively increased his holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a></b></p><p>The second quarterly report of E Fund Shundingkai, managed by Xiao Nan, showed that the fund's stock position as of the end of the second quarter was 90.98%, a slight increase from 89.53% at the end of the first quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e35704160d45b51330886e3bd3a3906\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Liquor stocks were greatly differentiated during the year.<b>Judging from Xiao Nan's positions, there are still 6 liquor stocks among the top ten Awkwardness stocks. Judging from the first and second largest holdings, Wuliangye, which performed relatively weakly, did not reduce its holdings, while it rose by more than 19% in the first half of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">Shanxi Fenjiu</a>On the contrary, the number of shares held has decreased</b>。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>The new entry may be one of the manifestations of Xiao Nan's substantial increase in holdings in the banking sector</b>。 2 The quarterly report shows that China Merchants Bank accounts for about 6% of the net worth, becoming the seventh largest holding in one fell swoop.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>He continued to increase investment in the aquaculture sector, but the effect was not satisfactory</b>--The decline in pig prices has exceeded previous expectations, but he is not worried about the long-term space of related targets. On the contrary, every industry trough is a curve for the expansion of high-quality enterprises and the stagnation and retrogression of competitors.</p><p>The performance of some of the low-valuation targets he laid out last year was average. The reason is not only the market style, but also<b>It's more that the company itself's efforts to get out of the existing predicament have not yet produced the desired results.</b>Fortunately, there are not many positions in such targets. Too much left-side investment will indeed seriously reduce investment efficiency, so in the second quarter, he made appropriate adjustments to replace such companies with companies with equally cheap valuations but more new growth drivers.</p><p>However, other sector adjustments are not obvious from the top ten Awkwardness stocks, and may have to wait for the semi-annual report to give more detailed information.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"First Brother\" Zhang Kun's Rare Reflection: It will be more difficult to make money in the next five years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"First Brother\" Zhang Kun's Rare Reflection: It will be more difficult to make money in the next five years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 13:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the early morning of July 20, E Fund, GF and other funds successively disclosed the second quarterly reports of their funds, and the latest position changes of star fund managers such as Zhang Kun, Xiao Nan, and Liu Gesong were also exposed.</p><p>What adjustments have they made to their portfolios? How do you view the correction of Internet and education stocks and the decline of pig prices in the past period?</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun's rare \"reflection\"</b></p><p><b>Declining returns are hard to avoid in the coming years</b></p><p>When the market pulled back at the beginning of the year, someone created an emoticon of \"escape quickly\". The second quarterly report shows that neither Zhang Kun nor his Christians \"ran\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635934407b37961d39c73cbe12e0623d\" tg-width=\"119\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of the end of the second quarter, Zhang Kun's management scale reached 134.478 billion yuan, a slight increase from 133.109 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter.</p><p><b>While reflecting on his past investment process, he \"found many mistakes\" and lamented the difficulty of future investment.</b></p><p>He pointed out that after the epidemic, with the relaxation of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some companies, if all assumptions are fulfilled, they may be able to earn a discount rate or a yield level slightly higher than the discount rate in the next five years, but<b>Once you make a mistake, you may face a 30% or even 50% stock price drop.</b></p><p><b>In the next few years, the competition faced by many industries may be more intense than in the past five years, and the difficulty of judging the competition pattern of industries in the next five years may only increase.</b>If it is correct, it may only get a mediocre rate of return, but once it is wrong, it will face a lot of losses.</p><p>\"I often look at the portfolio like this. If the stock market is suspended and trading resumes after 5 years, how much expected compound rate of return can each company bring?<b>Judging from the current judgment, the decline in the expected rate of return in the next few years may be inevitable.</b>\"Zhang Kun said in the quarterly report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b85481b6cde0aa5f5a91da45033c97\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun reduces holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Maotai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>, Masukura<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Postal Savings</b></p><p>Compared with the first quarter report of 2021, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all declined to varying degrees in the second quarter.</p><p>Wherein,<b>E Fund's small and medium-cap stock positions fell the most</b>, the proportion of its stock market value to the fund's net asset value dropped significantly from 94.58% at the end of the first quarter to about 71.07%, a decrease of about 24 percentage points.</p><p><b>This is also the lowest stock position at the end of the quarter during the E Fund small and medium-cap fund managed by Zhang Kun, second only to the 72.19% in the 2017 interim report.</b></p><p>E Fund's blue-chip stock positions decreased by about 2 percentage points, and E Fund's Asia Select and E Fund's high-quality enterprise positions decreased by about 4-5 percentage points. The stock positions of these three funds are all around 90%.</p><p>In the second quarter, some heavyweight stocks pulled back, which obviously touched Zhang Kun. Overall, Zhang Kun is more hesitant about the heavily held computer and consumer goods industries, and more optimistic about banking, real estate, electronics, medicine and other industries.</p><p>Looking at specific positions,<b>E Fund Asia's selected heavy warehouse portfolio also shows that TAL,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>, STAAR Surgical Co Exits Top 10 Awkward Holdings</b>Postal Savings Bank of China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">China Overseas LOI</a>Limited company,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Kun specifically mentioned in E Fund Asia Selection,<b>In the second quarter, the stock prices of education and training companies fell sharply due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the net value of the fund. This also made him reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework, hoping to further improve them.</b></p><p>E Fund's top ten small and medium-cap holdings remain unchanged, focusing on increasing holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600570\">Hang Seng Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002007\">Hualan Bio</a>, focusing on reducing holdings with huge gains in the previous period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">Tongce Medical</a>, Maotai, Wuliangye.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072a6f03ba48e67f484c88af03c90da0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Among the top ten holdings of E Fund's blue chip second quarterly report, compared with the first quarterly report,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">Aier Ophthalmology</a>For new entrants into the top ten heavyweight stocks</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">Ping An Bank</a>Then exit the top ten. However, at the time of the fourth quarter report of 2020, Aier Ophthalmology was also among the top ten blue-chip holdings of E Fund, and the change in the number of shares held at that time was not big.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a39090f4f108246e7c600c4ba28cd96\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af077204d412ddabad74578a87b1942c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"78\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Information on the top ten heavyweight stocks of E Fund's high-quality enterprises shows that Aier Ophthalmology and Ping An Bank have entered the top ten heavyweight stocks, Hualan Bio,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">Jinxin Fertility</a>Then exit the top ten Awkwardness stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e29a92a03c39520257974a13d307451\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Liu Gesong adds \"global comparative advantage\" manufacturing industry</b></p><p>In the second quarterly report of GF Small Cap, Liu Gesong emphasized that in the second quarter, he focused on investigating listed Chinese manufacturing companies with \"global comparative advantages\" such as photovoltaic industry chain, power batteries, new chemical materials, and panels.<b>It is still believed that the profitability of such manufacturing assets is expected to maintain a relatively long boom cycle, and the valuation expansion of such manufacturing assets has not deviated from the boom range, and a considerable number of assets have high cost performance.</b></p><p>In the second quarter, the fund further increased the allocation ratio of manufacturing industries with \"global comparative advantages\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51323b149b079c0698e47f8fff7b72be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of changes in positions, the fund increased its holdings by 3.5665 million shares in the second quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi shares</a>, holding a total of 18.0015 million shares. The company's stock price has recently emerged from the \"pit\" of the sharp drop after the year and hit a record high, with an increase of 41.66% in the second quarter. Therefore, the fund holds its market value of 1.599 billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of the net value. Reaching 10.86%, it is its first holding.</p><p>Furthermore,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300347\">Tigermed</a>Exit the top ten awkward stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Xiaokang shares</a>Newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks.</b></p><p>The previous announcement will reveal that GF Small Cap participated in the subscription of Xiaokang's non-public offering of shares. This part of the stocks with restricted circulation accounts for about 1.68% of the net asset value of the fund.</p><p>The second quarterly report shows that Xiaokang shares account for about 4.58% of the net value. In other words, in the second quarter, in addition to participating in the fixed increase, Liu Gesong also bought Xiaokang shares in the secondary market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660d1a035fd3f8e3bc6be39aec16dc3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The stock price of Xiaokang shares at the beginning of the year was around 15 yuan, and it once exceeded 83 yuan in June, an increase of more than 450%. Subsequently, the stock price pulled back and closed at 65.75 yuan at noon on July 20.</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>Xiao Nan aggressively increased his holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a></b></p><p>The second quarterly report of E Fund Shundingkai, managed by Xiao Nan, showed that the fund's stock position as of the end of the second quarter was 90.98%, a slight increase from 89.53% at the end of the first quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e35704160d45b51330886e3bd3a3906\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Liquor stocks were greatly differentiated during the year.<b>Judging from Xiao Nan's positions, there are still 6 liquor stocks among the top ten Awkwardness stocks. Judging from the first and second largest holdings, Wuliangye, which performed relatively weakly, did not reduce its holdings, while it rose by more than 19% in the first half of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">Shanxi Fenjiu</a>On the contrary, the number of shares held has decreased</b>。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>The new entry may be one of the manifestations of Xiao Nan's substantial increase in holdings in the banking sector</b>。 2 The quarterly report shows that China Merchants Bank accounts for about 6% of the net worth, becoming the seventh largest holding in one fell swoop.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>He continued to increase investment in the aquaculture sector, but the effect was not satisfactory</b>--The decline in pig prices has exceeded previous expectations, but he is not worried about the long-term space of related targets. On the contrary, every industry trough is a curve for the expansion of high-quality enterprises and the stagnation and retrogression of competitors.</p><p>The performance of some of the low-valuation targets he laid out last year was average. The reason is not only the market style, but also<b>It's more that the company itself's efforts to get out of the existing predicament have not yet produced the desired results.</b>Fortunately, there are not many positions in such targets. Too much left-side investment will indeed seriously reduce investment efficiency, so in the second quarter, he made appropriate adjustments to replace such companies with companies with equally cheap valuations but more new growth drivers.</p><p>However, other sector adjustments are not obvious from the top ten Awkwardness stocks, and may have to wait for the semi-annual report to give more detailed information.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100583093","content_text":"7月20日凌晨，易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报，张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。\n他们的投资组合做了哪些调整？如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌？\n01\n张坤罕见“反思”\n未来几年回报下降难以避免\n年初市场回调时，有人创造出 “快逃”的表情包。二季报显示，张坤和他的基民都没有“跑”。\n\n截至二季度末，张坤的管理规模达到1344.78亿元，较上季度末的1331.09亿元略有增加。\n在反思自己过往的投资过程，他“发现有不少错误”，同时感慨未来投资之难。\n他指出，疫情后，随着全球流动性的放松，全球股市都有了显著上涨。对于一些公司，在各种假设都兑现的情况下，可能未来 5 年能赚取贴现率或者比贴现率略高的收益率水平，但是一旦错误，可能就要面临30%甚至50%的股价下跌。\n未来几年，不少行业面临的竞争程度恐怕比过去 5 年更为激烈，未来5年行业竞争格局的判断难度恐怕只增不减。如果正确，可能只获得一个平庸的回报率，但一旦错误，却面临不小的损失。\n“我经常这样审视组合，如果股市暂停，5 年后恢复交易，每个企业能带来多少的预期复合收益率，从目前的判断来看，未来几年预期回报率下降可能是难以避免的。”张坤在季报中表示。\n\n02\n张坤减持五粮液茅台好未来，增仓腾讯邮储\n对比2021年一季报，张坤旗下4只产品的股票仓位均在二季度有不同程度的下降。\n其中，易方达中小盘的股票仓位下降幅度最大，其股票市值占基金资产净值比例从一季度末的94.58%大幅降低至71.07%左右，下降了约24个百分点。\n这也是张坤管理的易方达中小盘基金期间，季末股票仓位最低的一次，仅次于2017年中报的72.19%。\n易方达蓝筹股票仓位约降低2个百分点左右，易方达亚洲精选、易方达优质企业仓位约降低4-5个百分点之间。这3只基金股票仓位均在9成上下。\n二季度，部分重仓股回调，显然对张坤颇有触动。总体来看，张坤对于重仓的计算机和消费品行业的看法较为犹豫，对于银行、地产、电子、医药等行业的看法较为乐观。\n从具体的持仓看，易方达亚洲精选的重仓组合也显示，好未来、新东方、STAAR Surgical Co退出前十大重仓股，中国邮政储蓄银行、中国海外发展有限公司、唯品会新入前十大重仓股。\n对此，张坤在易方达亚洲精选中特别提到，二季度，教培企业受政策预期影响股价跌幅较大，对基金净值产生了一定的负面影响，这也使他反思长期投资框架中的一些假设，希望能够将其进一步完善。\n易方达中小盘十大重仓股保持不变，重点增持了恒生电子、华兰生物、重点减持了前期涨幅巨大的通策医疗、茅台、五粮液。\n\n易方达蓝筹2季报前十大重仓股中，对比1季报，爱尔眼科为新入十大重仓股者，平安银行则退出前十大。不过，2020年4季报时，爱尔眼科亦在易方达蓝筹前十大重仓股，此次现身与当时持股数量变化亦不算大。\n\n易方达优质企业前十大重仓股信息显示，爱尔眼科、平安银行新入前十大重仓股，华兰生物、锦欣生殖则退出前十大重仓股。\n\n03\n刘格菘增配“全球比较优势”制造业\n在广发小盘2季报中，刘格菘强调，他二季度集中调研了光伏产业链、动力电池、化工新材料、面板等具备“全球比较优势”特征的中国制造业上市公司，仍然认为这类制造业资产的盈利预计能够保持比较长的景气周期，而且这类制造业资产的估值扩张并没有脱离景气区间，相当一部分资产还具备较高的性价比。\n二季度，该基金进一步提高了具有“全球比较优势”的制造业的配置比例。\n\n持仓变动方面，该基金在第二季度增持了356.65万股隆基股份，合计持有1800.15万股，公司股价近期从年后大跌的“坑”里走了出来并创下历史新高，二季度涨幅达41.66%，因此基金持有其市值达15.99亿元，占净值比例达10.86%，为其第一重仓股。\n此外，泰格医药退出前十大重仓股，小康股份新入前十大重仓股。\n此前公告就会发现，广发小盘参与了小康股份非公开发行股票的认购。这部分流通受限的股票占基金资产净值比约1.68%。\n而2季报显示，小康股份占净值比约4.58%。也就是说，在2季度，除了参与定增，刘格菘也在二级市场买入了小康股份。\n\n小康股份年初股价在15元左右，6月份盘中一度超83元，涨幅超450%。随后股价有所回调，7月20日中午收盘报65.75元。\n04\n萧楠大举增持招商银行\n萧楠管理的易方达科顺定开披露2季报显示，该基金截至二季度末的股票仓位为90.98%，相比一季度末的89.53%略有提升。\n\n年内白酒股分化较大，从萧楠的持仓来看，十大重仓股中仍有6只白酒股。从第一第二大重仓股看，表现相对弱势的五粮液并未减持，而上半年涨超19%的山西汾酒反而持股数有所减少。\n招商银行的新入，或许是萧楠提到的大幅增持了银行板块的体现之一。2季报显示，招商银行占净值比约6%，一举成为第7大重仓股。\n此外，他继续加大了对养殖板块的投资，但从效果看并不理想——猪价的下跌超出之前的预期，但他并不担心相关标的的长期空间，相反，每一次行业低谷，都是优质企业扩张、竞争对手停滞倒退的弯道。\n去年他布局的一些低估值标的业绩表现一般，其中的原因除了市场风格，更多的是公司本身摆脱现有困境的努力还没有出现预期效果。好在，在这类标的的仓位并不多。过多的左侧投资的确会严重降低投资效率，因此二季度他适当做出了调整，将这类公司替换成估值同样便宜但更具备新增长动力的公司。\n而其他的板块调整从十大重仓股看并不明显，或许要等半年报给出更详细的信息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171440339,"gmtCreate":1626759345321,"gmtModify":1703764667701,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582006747349058","authorIdStr":"3582006747349058"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Juju?","listText":"Juju?","text":"Juju?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171440339","repostId":"2152502996","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":171440659,"gmtCreate":1626759389571,"gmtModify":1703764668358,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006747349058","idStr":"3582006747349058"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lublin?","listText":"Lublin?","text":"Lublin?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171440659","repostId":"1100583093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100583093","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1626758309,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100583093?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-20 13:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"\"First Brother\" Zhang Kun's Rare Reflection: It will be more difficult to make money in the next five years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100583093","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"7月20日凌晨，易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报，张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。\n他们的投资组合做了哪些调整？如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌？","content":"<p>In the early morning of July 20, E Fund, GF and other funds successively disclosed the second quarterly reports of their funds, and the latest position changes of star fund managers such as Zhang Kun, Xiao Nan, and Liu Gesong were also exposed.</p><p>What adjustments have they made to their portfolios? How do you view the correction of Internet and education stocks and the decline of pig prices in the past period?</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun's rare \"reflection\"</b></p><p><b>Declining returns are hard to avoid in the coming years</b></p><p>When the market pulled back at the beginning of the year, someone created an emoticon of \"escape quickly\". The second quarterly report shows that neither Zhang Kun nor his Christians \"ran\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635934407b37961d39c73cbe12e0623d\" tg-width=\"119\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of the end of the second quarter, Zhang Kun's management scale reached 134.478 billion yuan, a slight increase from 133.109 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter.</p><p><b>While reflecting on his past investment process, he \"found many mistakes\" and lamented the difficulty of future investment.</b></p><p>He pointed out that after the epidemic, with the relaxation of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some companies, if all assumptions are fulfilled, they may be able to earn a discount rate or a yield level slightly higher than the discount rate in the next five years, but<b>Once you make a mistake, you may face a 30% or even 50% stock price drop.</b></p><p><b>In the next few years, the competition faced by many industries may be more intense than in the past five years, and the difficulty of judging the competition pattern of industries in the next five years may only increase.</b>If it is correct, it may only get a mediocre rate of return, but once it is wrong, it will face a lot of losses.</p><p>\"I often look at the portfolio like this. If the stock market is suspended and trading resumes after 5 years, how much expected compound rate of return can each company bring?<b>Judging from the current judgment, the decline in the expected rate of return in the next few years may be inevitable.</b>\"Zhang Kun said in the quarterly report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b85481b6cde0aa5f5a91da45033c97\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun reduces holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Maotai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>, Masukura<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Postal Savings</b></p><p>Compared with the first quarter report of 2021, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all declined to varying degrees in the second quarter.</p><p>Wherein,<b>E Fund's small and medium-cap stock positions fell the most</b>, the proportion of its stock market value to the fund's net asset value dropped significantly from 94.58% at the end of the first quarter to about 71.07%, a decrease of about 24 percentage points.</p><p><b>This is also the lowest stock position at the end of the quarter during the E Fund small and medium-cap fund managed by Zhang Kun, second only to the 72.19% in the 2017 interim report.</b></p><p>E Fund's blue-chip stock positions decreased by about 2 percentage points, and E Fund's Asia Select and E Fund's high-quality enterprise positions decreased by about 4-5 percentage points. The stock positions of these three funds are all around 90%.</p><p>In the second quarter, some heavyweight stocks pulled back, which obviously touched Zhang Kun. Overall, Zhang Kun is more hesitant about the heavily held computer and consumer goods industries, and more optimistic about banking, real estate, electronics, medicine and other industries.</p><p>Looking at specific positions,<b>E Fund Asia's selected heavy warehouse portfolio also shows that TAL,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>, STAAR Surgical Co Exits Top 10 Awkward Holdings</b>Postal Savings Bank of China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">China Overseas LOI</a>Limited company,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Kun specifically mentioned in E Fund Asia Selection,<b>In the second quarter, the stock prices of education and training companies fell sharply due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the net value of the fund. This also made him reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework, hoping to further improve them.</b></p><p>E Fund's top ten small and medium-cap holdings remain unchanged, focusing on increasing holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600570\">Hang Seng Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002007\">Hualan Bio</a>, focusing on reducing holdings with huge gains in the previous period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">Tongce Medical</a>, Maotai, Wuliangye.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072a6f03ba48e67f484c88af03c90da0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Among the top ten holdings of E Fund's blue chip second quarterly report, compared with the first quarterly report,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">Aier Ophthalmology</a>For new entrants into the top ten heavyweight stocks</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">Ping An Bank</a>Then exit the top ten. However, at the time of the fourth quarter report of 2020, Aier Ophthalmology was also among the top ten blue-chip holdings of E Fund, and the change in the number of shares held at that time was not big.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a39090f4f108246e7c600c4ba28cd96\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af077204d412ddabad74578a87b1942c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"78\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Information on the top ten heavyweight stocks of E Fund's high-quality enterprises shows that Aier Ophthalmology and Ping An Bank have entered the top ten heavyweight stocks, Hualan Bio,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">Jinxin Fertility</a>Then exit the top ten Awkwardness stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e29a92a03c39520257974a13d307451\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Liu Gesong adds \"global comparative advantage\" manufacturing industry</b></p><p>In the second quarterly report of GF Small Cap, Liu Gesong emphasized that in the second quarter, he focused on investigating listed Chinese manufacturing companies with \"global comparative advantages\" such as photovoltaic industry chain, power batteries, new chemical materials, and panels.<b>It is still believed that the profitability of such manufacturing assets is expected to maintain a relatively long boom cycle, and the valuation expansion of such manufacturing assets has not deviated from the boom range, and a considerable number of assets have high cost performance.</b></p><p>In the second quarter, the fund further increased the allocation ratio of manufacturing industries with \"global comparative advantages\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51323b149b079c0698e47f8fff7b72be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of changes in positions, the fund increased its holdings by 3.5665 million shares in the second quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi shares</a>, holding a total of 18.0015 million shares. The company's stock price has recently emerged from the \"pit\" of the sharp drop after the year and hit a record high, with an increase of 41.66% in the second quarter. Therefore, the fund holds its market value of 1.599 billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of the net value. Reaching 10.86%, it is its first holding.</p><p>Furthermore,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300347\">Tigermed</a>Exit the top ten awkward stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Xiaokang shares</a>Newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks.</b></p><p>The previous announcement will reveal that GF Small Cap participated in the subscription of Xiaokang's non-public offering of shares. This part of the stocks with restricted circulation accounts for about 1.68% of the net asset value of the fund.</p><p>The second quarterly report shows that Xiaokang shares account for about 4.58% of the net value. In other words, in the second quarter, in addition to participating in the fixed increase, Liu Gesong also bought Xiaokang shares in the secondary market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660d1a035fd3f8e3bc6be39aec16dc3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The stock price of Xiaokang shares at the beginning of the year was around 15 yuan, and it once exceeded 83 yuan in June, an increase of more than 450%. Subsequently, the stock price pulled back and closed at 65.75 yuan at noon on July 20.</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>Xiao Nan aggressively increased his holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a></b></p><p>The second quarterly report of E Fund Shundingkai, managed by Xiao Nan, showed that the fund's stock position as of the end of the second quarter was 90.98%, a slight increase from 89.53% at the end of the first quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e35704160d45b51330886e3bd3a3906\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Liquor stocks were greatly differentiated during the year.<b>Judging from Xiao Nan's positions, there are still 6 liquor stocks among the top ten Awkwardness stocks. Judging from the first and second largest holdings, Wuliangye, which performed relatively weakly, did not reduce its holdings, while it rose by more than 19% in the first half of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">Shanxi Fenjiu</a>On the contrary, the number of shares held has decreased</b>。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>The new entry may be one of the manifestations of Xiao Nan's substantial increase in holdings in the banking sector</b>。 2 The quarterly report shows that China Merchants Bank accounts for about 6% of the net worth, becoming the seventh largest holding in one fell swoop.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>He continued to increase investment in the aquaculture sector, but the effect was not satisfactory</b>--The decline in pig prices has exceeded previous expectations, but he is not worried about the long-term space of related targets. On the contrary, every industry trough is a curve for the expansion of high-quality enterprises and the stagnation and retrogression of competitors.</p><p>The performance of some of the low-valuation targets he laid out last year was average. The reason is not only the market style, but also<b>It's more that the company itself's efforts to get out of the existing predicament have not yet produced the desired results.</b>Fortunately, there are not many positions in such targets. Too much left-side investment will indeed seriously reduce investment efficiency, so in the second quarter, he made appropriate adjustments to replace such companies with companies with equally cheap valuations but more new growth drivers.</p><p>However, other sector adjustments are not obvious from the top ten Awkwardness stocks, and may have to wait for the semi-annual report to give more detailed information.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"First Brother\" Zhang Kun's Rare Reflection: It will be more difficult to make money in the next five years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"First Brother\" Zhang Kun's Rare Reflection: It will be more difficult to make money in the next five years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 13:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the early morning of July 20, E Fund, GF and other funds successively disclosed the second quarterly reports of their funds, and the latest position changes of star fund managers such as Zhang Kun, Xiao Nan, and Liu Gesong were also exposed.</p><p>What adjustments have they made to their portfolios? How do you view the correction of Internet and education stocks and the decline of pig prices in the past period?</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun's rare \"reflection\"</b></p><p><b>Declining returns are hard to avoid in the coming years</b></p><p>When the market pulled back at the beginning of the year, someone created an emoticon of \"escape quickly\". The second quarterly report shows that neither Zhang Kun nor his Christians \"ran\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635934407b37961d39c73cbe12e0623d\" tg-width=\"119\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of the end of the second quarter, Zhang Kun's management scale reached 134.478 billion yuan, a slight increase from 133.109 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter.</p><p><b>While reflecting on his past investment process, he \"found many mistakes\" and lamented the difficulty of future investment.</b></p><p>He pointed out that after the epidemic, with the relaxation of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some companies, if all assumptions are fulfilled, they may be able to earn a discount rate or a yield level slightly higher than the discount rate in the next five years, but<b>Once you make a mistake, you may face a 30% or even 50% stock price drop.</b></p><p><b>In the next few years, the competition faced by many industries may be more intense than in the past five years, and the difficulty of judging the competition pattern of industries in the next five years may only increase.</b>If it is correct, it may only get a mediocre rate of return, but once it is wrong, it will face a lot of losses.</p><p>\"I often look at the portfolio like this. If the stock market is suspended and trading resumes after 5 years, how much expected compound rate of return can each company bring?<b>Judging from the current judgment, the decline in the expected rate of return in the next few years may be inevitable.</b>\"Zhang Kun said in the quarterly report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b85481b6cde0aa5f5a91da45033c97\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun reduces holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Maotai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>, Masukura<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Postal Savings</b></p><p>Compared with the first quarter report of 2021, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all declined to varying degrees in the second quarter.</p><p>Wherein,<b>E Fund's small and medium-cap stock positions fell the most</b>, the proportion of its stock market value to the fund's net asset value dropped significantly from 94.58% at the end of the first quarter to about 71.07%, a decrease of about 24 percentage points.</p><p><b>This is also the lowest stock position at the end of the quarter during the E Fund small and medium-cap fund managed by Zhang Kun, second only to the 72.19% in the 2017 interim report.</b></p><p>E Fund's blue-chip stock positions decreased by about 2 percentage points, and E Fund's Asia Select and E Fund's high-quality enterprise positions decreased by about 4-5 percentage points. The stock positions of these three funds are all around 90%.</p><p>In the second quarter, some heavyweight stocks pulled back, which obviously touched Zhang Kun. Overall, Zhang Kun is more hesitant about the heavily held computer and consumer goods industries, and more optimistic about banking, real estate, electronics, medicine and other industries.</p><p>Looking at specific positions,<b>E Fund Asia's selected heavy warehouse portfolio also shows that TAL,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>, STAAR Surgical Co Exits Top 10 Awkward Holdings</b>Postal Savings Bank of China,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">China Overseas LOI</a>Limited company,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks.</p><p>In this regard, Zhang Kun specifically mentioned in E Fund Asia Selection,<b>In the second quarter, the stock prices of education and training companies fell sharply due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the net value of the fund. This also made him reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework, hoping to further improve them.</b></p><p>E Fund's top ten small and medium-cap holdings remain unchanged, focusing on increasing holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600570\">Hang Seng Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002007\">Hualan Bio</a>, focusing on reducing holdings with huge gains in the previous period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">Tongce Medical</a>, Maotai, Wuliangye.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072a6f03ba48e67f484c88af03c90da0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Among the top ten holdings of E Fund's blue chip second quarterly report, compared with the first quarterly report,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">Aier Ophthalmology</a>For new entrants into the top ten heavyweight stocks</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">Ping An Bank</a>Then exit the top ten. However, at the time of the fourth quarter report of 2020, Aier Ophthalmology was also among the top ten blue-chip holdings of E Fund, and the change in the number of shares held at that time was not big.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a39090f4f108246e7c600c4ba28cd96\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af077204d412ddabad74578a87b1942c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"78\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Information on the top ten heavyweight stocks of E Fund's high-quality enterprises shows that Aier Ophthalmology and Ping An Bank have entered the top ten heavyweight stocks, Hualan Bio,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">Jinxin Fertility</a>Then exit the top ten Awkwardness stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e29a92a03c39520257974a13d307451\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Liu Gesong adds \"global comparative advantage\" manufacturing industry</b></p><p>In the second quarterly report of GF Small Cap, Liu Gesong emphasized that in the second quarter, he focused on investigating listed Chinese manufacturing companies with \"global comparative advantages\" such as photovoltaic industry chain, power batteries, new chemical materials, and panels.<b>It is still believed that the profitability of such manufacturing assets is expected to maintain a relatively long boom cycle, and the valuation expansion of such manufacturing assets has not deviated from the boom range, and a considerable number of assets have high cost performance.</b></p><p>In the second quarter, the fund further increased the allocation ratio of manufacturing industries with \"global comparative advantages\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51323b149b079c0698e47f8fff7b72be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of changes in positions, the fund increased its holdings by 3.5665 million shares in the second quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi shares</a>, holding a total of 18.0015 million shares. The company's stock price has recently emerged from the \"pit\" of the sharp drop after the year and hit a record high, with an increase of 41.66% in the second quarter. Therefore, the fund holds its market value of 1.599 billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of the net value. Reaching 10.86%, it is its first holding.</p><p>Furthermore,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300347\">Tigermed</a>Exit the top ten awkward stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Xiaokang shares</a>Newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks.</b></p><p>The previous announcement will reveal that GF Small Cap participated in the subscription of Xiaokang's non-public offering of shares. This part of the stocks with restricted circulation accounts for about 1.68% of the net asset value of the fund.</p><p>The second quarterly report shows that Xiaokang shares account for about 4.58% of the net value. In other words, in the second quarter, in addition to participating in the fixed increase, Liu Gesong also bought Xiaokang shares in the secondary market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660d1a035fd3f8e3bc6be39aec16dc3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>The stock price of Xiaokang shares at the beginning of the year was around 15 yuan, and it once exceeded 83 yuan in June, an increase of more than 450%. Subsequently, the stock price pulled back and closed at 65.75 yuan at noon on July 20.</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>Xiao Nan aggressively increased his holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a></b></p><p>The second quarterly report of E Fund Shundingkai, managed by Xiao Nan, showed that the fund's stock position as of the end of the second quarter was 90.98%, a slight increase from 89.53% at the end of the first quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e35704160d45b51330886e3bd3a3906\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Liquor stocks were greatly differentiated during the year.<b>Judging from Xiao Nan's positions, there are still 6 liquor stocks among the top ten Awkwardness stocks. Judging from the first and second largest holdings, Wuliangye, which performed relatively weakly, did not reduce its holdings, while it rose by more than 19% in the first half of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">Shanxi Fenjiu</a>On the contrary, the number of shares held has decreased</b>。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>The new entry may be one of the manifestations of Xiao Nan's substantial increase in holdings in the banking sector</b>。 2 The quarterly report shows that China Merchants Bank accounts for about 6% of the net worth, becoming the seventh largest holding in one fell swoop.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>He continued to increase investment in the aquaculture sector, but the effect was not satisfactory</b>--The decline in pig prices has exceeded previous expectations, but he is not worried about the long-term space of related targets. On the contrary, every industry trough is a curve for the expansion of high-quality enterprises and the stagnation and retrogression of competitors.</p><p>The performance of some of the low-valuation targets he laid out last year was average. The reason is not only the market style, but also<b>It's more that the company itself's efforts to get out of the existing predicament have not yet produced the desired results.</b>Fortunately, there are not many positions in such targets. Too much left-side investment will indeed seriously reduce investment efficiency, so in the second quarter, he made appropriate adjustments to replace such companies with companies with equally cheap valuations but more new growth drivers.</p><p>However, other sector adjustments are not obvious from the top ten Awkwardness stocks, and may have to wait for the semi-annual report to give more detailed information.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100583093","content_text":"7月20日凌晨，易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报，张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。\n他们的投资组合做了哪些调整？如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌？\n01\n张坤罕见“反思”\n未来几年回报下降难以避免\n年初市场回调时，有人创造出 “快逃”的表情包。二季报显示，张坤和他的基民都没有“跑”。\n\n截至二季度末，张坤的管理规模达到1344.78亿元，较上季度末的1331.09亿元略有增加。\n在反思自己过往的投资过程，他“发现有不少错误”，同时感慨未来投资之难。\n他指出，疫情后，随着全球流动性的放松，全球股市都有了显著上涨。对于一些公司，在各种假设都兑现的情况下，可能未来 5 年能赚取贴现率或者比贴现率略高的收益率水平，但是一旦错误，可能就要面临30%甚至50%的股价下跌。\n未来几年，不少行业面临的竞争程度恐怕比过去 5 年更为激烈，未来5年行业竞争格局的判断难度恐怕只增不减。如果正确，可能只获得一个平庸的回报率，但一旦错误，却面临不小的损失。\n“我经常这样审视组合，如果股市暂停，5 年后恢复交易，每个企业能带来多少的预期复合收益率，从目前的判断来看，未来几年预期回报率下降可能是难以避免的。”张坤在季报中表示。\n\n02\n张坤减持五粮液茅台好未来，增仓腾讯邮储\n对比2021年一季报，张坤旗下4只产品的股票仓位均在二季度有不同程度的下降。\n其中，易方达中小盘的股票仓位下降幅度最大，其股票市值占基金资产净值比例从一季度末的94.58%大幅降低至71.07%左右，下降了约24个百分点。\n这也是张坤管理的易方达中小盘基金期间，季末股票仓位最低的一次，仅次于2017年中报的72.19%。\n易方达蓝筹股票仓位约降低2个百分点左右，易方达亚洲精选、易方达优质企业仓位约降低4-5个百分点之间。这3只基金股票仓位均在9成上下。\n二季度，部分重仓股回调，显然对张坤颇有触动。总体来看，张坤对于重仓的计算机和消费品行业的看法较为犹豫，对于银行、地产、电子、医药等行业的看法较为乐观。\n从具体的持仓看，易方达亚洲精选的重仓组合也显示，好未来、新东方、STAAR Surgical Co退出前十大重仓股，中国邮政储蓄银行、中国海外发展有限公司、唯品会新入前十大重仓股。\n对此，张坤在易方达亚洲精选中特别提到，二季度，教培企业受政策预期影响股价跌幅较大，对基金净值产生了一定的负面影响，这也使他反思长期投资框架中的一些假设，希望能够将其进一步完善。\n易方达中小盘十大重仓股保持不变，重点增持了恒生电子、华兰生物、重点减持了前期涨幅巨大的通策医疗、茅台、五粮液。\n\n易方达蓝筹2季报前十大重仓股中，对比1季报，爱尔眼科为新入十大重仓股者，平安银行则退出前十大。不过，2020年4季报时，爱尔眼科亦在易方达蓝筹前十大重仓股，此次现身与当时持股数量变化亦不算大。\n\n易方达优质企业前十大重仓股信息显示，爱尔眼科、平安银行新入前十大重仓股，华兰生物、锦欣生殖则退出前十大重仓股。\n\n03\n刘格菘增配“全球比较优势”制造业\n在广发小盘2季报中，刘格菘强调，他二季度集中调研了光伏产业链、动力电池、化工新材料、面板等具备“全球比较优势”特征的中国制造业上市公司，仍然认为这类制造业资产的盈利预计能够保持比较长的景气周期，而且这类制造业资产的估值扩张并没有脱离景气区间，相当一部分资产还具备较高的性价比。\n二季度，该基金进一步提高了具有“全球比较优势”的制造业的配置比例。\n\n持仓变动方面，该基金在第二季度增持了356.65万股隆基股份，合计持有1800.15万股，公司股价近期从年后大跌的“坑”里走了出来并创下历史新高，二季度涨幅达41.66%，因此基金持有其市值达15.99亿元，占净值比例达10.86%，为其第一重仓股。\n此外，泰格医药退出前十大重仓股，小康股份新入前十大重仓股。\n此前公告就会发现，广发小盘参与了小康股份非公开发行股票的认购。这部分流通受限的股票占基金资产净值比约1.68%。\n而2季报显示，小康股份占净值比约4.58%。也就是说，在2季度，除了参与定增，刘格菘也在二级市场买入了小康股份。\n\n小康股份年初股价在15元左右，6月份盘中一度超83元，涨幅超450%。随后股价有所回调，7月20日中午收盘报65.75元。\n04\n萧楠大举增持招商银行\n萧楠管理的易方达科顺定开披露2季报显示，该基金截至二季度末的股票仓位为90.98%，相比一季度末的89.53%略有提升。\n\n年内白酒股分化较大，从萧楠的持仓来看，十大重仓股中仍有6只白酒股。从第一第二大重仓股看，表现相对弱势的五粮液并未减持，而上半年涨超19%的山西汾酒反而持股数有所减少。\n招商银行的新入，或许是萧楠提到的大幅增持了银行板块的体现之一。2季报显示，招商银行占净值比约6%，一举成为第7大重仓股。\n此外，他继续加大了对养殖板块的投资，但从效果看并不理想——猪价的下跌超出之前的预期，但他并不担心相关标的的长期空间，相反，每一次行业低谷，都是优质企业扩张、竞争对手停滞倒退的弯道。\n去年他布局的一些低估值标的业绩表现一般，其中的原因除了市场风格，更多的是公司本身摆脱现有困境的努力还没有出现预期效果。好在，在这类标的的仓位并不多。过多的左侧投资的确会严重降低投资效率，因此二季度他适当做出了调整，将这类公司替换成估值同样便宜但更具备新增长动力的公司。\n而其他的板块调整从十大重仓股看并不明显，或许要等半年报给出更详细的信息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171440339,"gmtCreate":1626759345321,"gmtModify":1703764667701,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006747349058","idStr":"3582006747349058"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Juju?","listText":"Juju?","text":"Juju?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171440339","repostId":"2152502996","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
