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Mizi

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2021-09-01

Okay can

2021-09-01

Kkay

Hong Kong shares rise as tech, financial sectors gain

2021-07-19

Need like

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-19

Latest

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual

2021-07-19

$S&P500 ETF(SPY)$life is hard

2021-07-16

Latest comment

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2021-07-16

Latest

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-16

Hmmmmm

2021-07-16

$Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF(SCHG)$I’ve faith

2021-07-14

Omg…

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-14

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ yay

2021-07-13

$Walt Disney(DIS)$Hmmmm

2021-07-13

Awesome

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2021-07-13

Cool

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2021-07-13

Shall we?

2021-07-12

Will drop further?

2021-07-12

$Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares(VUG)$OMGGG

2021-07-09

Looking at Apple… it’s like a reminder I need to change phone

2021-07-09

Like and comment

China's auto sales down 12.4% in June - industry association

2021-07-09

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ still no new changes

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Index gained 1.0% to 9,271.32.</p>\n<p>** Hong Kong's retail sales in July rose 2.9% from a year earlier to HK$27.2 billion ($3.50 billion), helped by a stabilising COVID-19 situation and an improved labour market along with an economic recovery.</p>\n<p>** China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction in August, raising hopes of more policy easing.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.3%. Index constituents Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Alibaba Group slipped 0.2%.</p>\n<p>** Tencent said on Tuesday it had ended all exclusive music copyright agreements after Chinese regulators barred it from such deals last month. The company said it would continue to cooperate and engage with the parties in a non-exclusive way.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Finance Index finished up 1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index rose 0.8%.</p>\n<p>** WuXi Biologics dropped 3% and was the second-biggest decliner on the Hang Seng Index, dragging the benchmark down 26 points.</p>\n<p>** China stepped up its reform of healthcare service pricing at public medical institutions on Tuesday with the announcement of a pilot programme aimed at controlling costs for consumers.</p>\n<p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRNF\">China Evergrande Group</a> lost 3.2% to hit a new low of HK$4.22, after the debt-laden developer on Tuesday warned of default risks and legal action from creditors as it scrambles to repair its balance sheet.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong shares rise as tech, financial sectors gain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong shares rise as tech, financial sectors gain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-01 16:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SHANGHAI, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares rose on Wednesday after data showed the city's retail sales climbed for the sixth straight month in July, with tech and financial stocks leading the gains.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng index rose 0.6% to 26,028.29, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.0% to 9,271.32.</p>\n<p>** Hong Kong's retail sales in July rose 2.9% from a year earlier to HK$27.2 billion ($3.50 billion), helped by a stabilising COVID-19 situation and an improved labour market along with an economic recovery.</p>\n<p>** China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction in August, raising hopes of more policy easing.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.3%. Index constituents Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Alibaba Group slipped 0.2%.</p>\n<p>** Tencent said on Tuesday it had ended all exclusive music copyright agreements after Chinese regulators barred it from such deals last month. The company said it would continue to cooperate and engage with the parties in a non-exclusive way.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Finance Index finished up 1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index rose 0.8%.</p>\n<p>** WuXi Biologics dropped 3% and was the second-biggest decliner on the Hang Seng Index, dragging the benchmark down 26 points.</p>\n<p>** China stepped up its reform of healthcare service pricing at public medical institutions on Tuesday with the announcement of a pilot programme aimed at controlling costs for consumers.</p>\n<p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRNF\">China Evergrande Group</a> lost 3.2% to hit a new low of HK$4.22, after the debt-laden developer on Tuesday warned of default risks and legal action from creditors as it scrambles to repair its balance sheet.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164899834","content_text":"SHANGHAI, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares rose on Wednesday after data showed the city's retail sales climbed for the sixth straight month in July, with tech and financial stocks leading the gains.\nThe Hang Seng index rose 0.6% to 26,028.29, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.0% to 9,271.32.\n** Hong Kong's retail sales in July rose 2.9% from a year earlier to HK$27.2 billion ($3.50 billion), helped by a stabilising COVID-19 situation and an improved labour market along with an economic recovery.\n** China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction in August, raising hopes of more policy easing.\n** The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.3%. Index constituents Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Alibaba Group slipped 0.2%.\n** Tencent said on Tuesday it had ended all exclusive music copyright agreements after Chinese regulators barred it from such deals last month. The company said it would continue to cooperate and engage with the parties in a non-exclusive way.\n** The Hang Seng Finance Index finished up 1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index rose 0.8%.\n** WuXi Biologics dropped 3% and was the second-biggest decliner on the Hang Seng Index, dragging the benchmark down 26 points.\n** China stepped up its reform of healthcare service pricing at public medical institutions on Tuesday with the announcement of a pilot programme aimed at controlling costs for consumers.\n** China Evergrande Group lost 3.2% to hit a new low of HK$4.22, after the debt-laden developer on Tuesday warned of default risks and legal action from creditors as it scrambles to repair its balance sheet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171386448,"gmtCreate":1626706464484,"gmtModify":1703763775264,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need like&nbsp;","listText":"Need like&nbsp;","text":"Need like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171386448","repostId":"2152827296","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171386136,"gmtCreate":1626706451425,"gmtModify":1703763773794,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171386136","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. 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","content":"<p>BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June from the corresponding month a year earlier, industry data showed on Friday.</p>\n<p>Overall sales stood at 2.02 million vehicles in June, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed.</p>\n<p>The country sold 12.89 million vehicles between January and June, up 25.6% from year-ago levels.</p>\n<p>Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) including battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles maintained their strong momentum, jumping 139.3%, with 256,000 units sold last month.</p>\n<p>NEV makers such as Nio Inc, Xpeng Inc, and BYD are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.</p>\n<p>Tesla Inc sold 33,155 China-manufactured electric cars in June.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's auto sales down 12.4% in June - industry association</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's auto sales down 12.4% in June - industry association\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-09 14:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June from the corresponding month a year earlier, industry data showed on Friday.</p>\n<p>Overall sales stood at 2.02 million vehicles in June, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed.</p>\n<p>The country sold 12.89 million vehicles between January and June, up 25.6% from year-ago levels.</p>\n<p>Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) including battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles maintained their strong momentum, jumping 139.3%, with 256,000 units sold last month.</p>\n<p>NEV makers such as Nio Inc, Xpeng Inc, and BYD are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.</p>\n<p>Tesla Inc sold 33,155 China-manufactured electric cars in June.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150320772","content_text":"BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June from the corresponding month a year earlier, industry data showed on Friday.\nOverall sales stood at 2.02 million vehicles in June, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed.\nThe country sold 12.89 million vehicles between January and June, up 25.6% from year-ago levels.\nSales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) including battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles maintained their strong momentum, jumping 139.3%, with 256,000 units sold last month.\nNEV makers such as Nio Inc, Xpeng Inc, and BYD are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.\nTesla Inc sold 33,155 China-manufactured electric cars in June.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143449339,"gmtCreate":1625812594221,"gmtModify":1703749065791,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582025318145745","authorIdStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> still no new&nbsp;changes&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> still no new&nbsp;changes&nbsp;","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$ still no new changes","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c79abdab911acf810b05a216fddc6896","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143449339","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":143449725,"gmtCreate":1625812667667,"gmtModify":1703749066946,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582025318145745","idStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143449725","repostId":"2150320772","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150320772","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1625811863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150320772?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-09 14:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China's auto sales down 12.4% in June - industry association","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150320772","media":"Reuters","summary":"BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June ","content":"<p>BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June from the corresponding month a year earlier, industry data showed on Friday.</p>\n<p>Overall sales stood at 2.02 million vehicles in June, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed.</p>\n<p>The country sold 12.89 million vehicles between January and June, up 25.6% from year-ago levels.</p>\n<p>Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) including battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles maintained their strong momentum, jumping 139.3%, with 256,000 units sold last month.</p>\n<p>NEV makers such as Nio Inc, Xpeng Inc, and BYD are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.</p>\n<p>Tesla Inc sold 33,155 China-manufactured electric cars in June.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's auto sales down 12.4% in June - industry association</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's auto sales down 12.4% in June - industry association\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-09 14:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June from the corresponding month a year earlier, industry data showed on Friday.</p>\n<p>Overall sales stood at 2.02 million vehicles in June, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed.</p>\n<p>The country sold 12.89 million vehicles between January and June, up 25.6% from year-ago levels.</p>\n<p>Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) including battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles maintained their strong momentum, jumping 139.3%, with 256,000 units sold last month.</p>\n<p>NEV makers such as Nio Inc, Xpeng Inc, and BYD are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.</p>\n<p>Tesla Inc sold 33,155 China-manufactured electric cars in June.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150320772","content_text":"BEIJING, July 9 (Reuters) - Auto sales in China, the world's biggest car market, fell 12.4% in June from the corresponding month a year earlier, industry data showed on Friday.\nOverall sales stood at 2.02 million vehicles in June, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed.\nThe country sold 12.89 million vehicles between January and June, up 25.6% from year-ago levels.\nSales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) including battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles maintained their strong momentum, jumping 139.3%, with 256,000 units sold last month.\nNEV makers such as Nio Inc, Xpeng Inc, and BYD are expanding manufacturing capacity in China, encouraged by the government's promotion of greener vehicles to cut pollution.\nTesla Inc sold 33,155 China-manufactured electric cars in June.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145319786,"gmtCreate":1626189421545,"gmtModify":1703755252439,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582025318145745","idStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145319786","repostId":"1120348548","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171386136,"gmtCreate":1626706451425,"gmtModify":1703763773794,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582025318145745","idStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest&nbsp;","listText":"Latest&nbsp;","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171386136","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145311507,"gmtCreate":1626189499009,"gmtModify":1703755255369,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582025318145745","idStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145311507","repostId":"1147338005","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816888010,"gmtCreate":1630486972830,"gmtModify":1676530317167,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582025318145745","idStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kkay","listText":"Kkay","text":"Kkay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816888010","repostId":"2164899834","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164899834","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1630486747,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2164899834?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 16:59","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong shares rise as tech, financial sectors gain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164899834","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares rose on Wednesday after data showed the city's retail ","content":"<p>SHANGHAI, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares rose on Wednesday after data showed the city's retail sales climbed for the sixth straight month in July, with tech and financial stocks leading the gains.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng index rose 0.6% to 26,028.29, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.0% to 9,271.32.</p>\n<p>** Hong Kong's retail sales in July rose 2.9% from a year earlier to HK$27.2 billion ($3.50 billion), helped by a stabilising COVID-19 situation and an improved labour market along with an economic recovery.</p>\n<p>** China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction in August, raising hopes of more policy easing.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.3%. Index constituents Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Alibaba Group slipped 0.2%.</p>\n<p>** Tencent said on Tuesday it had ended all exclusive music copyright agreements after Chinese regulators barred it from such deals last month. The company said it would continue to cooperate and engage with the parties in a non-exclusive way.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Finance Index finished up 1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index rose 0.8%.</p>\n<p>** WuXi Biologics dropped 3% and was the second-biggest decliner on the Hang Seng Index, dragging the benchmark down 26 points.</p>\n<p>** China stepped up its reform of healthcare service pricing at public medical institutions on Tuesday with the announcement of a pilot programme aimed at controlling costs for consumers.</p>\n<p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRNF\">China Evergrande Group</a> lost 3.2% to hit a new low of HK$4.22, after the debt-laden developer on Tuesday warned of default risks and legal action from creditors as it scrambles to repair its balance sheet.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong shares rise as tech, financial sectors gain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong shares rise as tech, financial sectors gain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-01 16:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SHANGHAI, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares rose on Wednesday after data showed the city's retail sales climbed for the sixth straight month in July, with tech and financial stocks leading the gains.</p>\n<p>The Hang Seng index rose 0.6% to 26,028.29, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.0% to 9,271.32.</p>\n<p>** Hong Kong's retail sales in July rose 2.9% from a year earlier to HK$27.2 billion ($3.50 billion), helped by a stabilising COVID-19 situation and an improved labour market along with an economic recovery.</p>\n<p>** China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction in August, raising hopes of more policy easing.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.3%. Index constituents Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Alibaba Group slipped 0.2%.</p>\n<p>** Tencent said on Tuesday it had ended all exclusive music copyright agreements after Chinese regulators barred it from such deals last month. The company said it would continue to cooperate and engage with the parties in a non-exclusive way.</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng Finance Index finished up 1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index rose 0.8%.</p>\n<p>** WuXi Biologics dropped 3% and was the second-biggest decliner on the Hang Seng Index, dragging the benchmark down 26 points.</p>\n<p>** China stepped up its reform of healthcare service pricing at public medical institutions on Tuesday with the announcement of a pilot programme aimed at controlling costs for consumers.</p>\n<p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRNF\">China Evergrande Group</a> lost 3.2% to hit a new low of HK$4.22, after the debt-laden developer on Tuesday warned of default risks and legal action from creditors as it scrambles to repair its balance sheet.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164899834","content_text":"SHANGHAI, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares rose on Wednesday after data showed the city's retail sales climbed for the sixth straight month in July, with tech and financial stocks leading the gains.\nThe Hang Seng index rose 0.6% to 26,028.29, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.0% to 9,271.32.\n** Hong Kong's retail sales in July rose 2.9% from a year earlier to HK$27.2 billion ($3.50 billion), helped by a stabilising COVID-19 situation and an improved labour market along with an economic recovery.\n** China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace while the services sector slumped into contraction in August, raising hopes of more policy easing.\n** The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.3%. Index constituents Meituan and Tencent Holdings went up 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Alibaba Group slipped 0.2%.\n** Tencent said on Tuesday it had ended all exclusive music copyright agreements after Chinese regulators barred it from such deals last month. The company said it would continue to cooperate and engage with the parties in a non-exclusive way.\n** The Hang Seng Finance Index finished up 1%, while the Hang Seng Property Index rose 0.8%.\n** WuXi Biologics dropped 3% and was the second-biggest decliner on the Hang Seng Index, dragging the benchmark down 26 points.\n** China stepped up its reform of healthcare service pricing at public medical institutions on Tuesday with the announcement of a pilot programme aimed at controlling costs for consumers.\n** China Evergrande Group lost 3.2% to hit a new low of HK$4.22, after the debt-laden developer on Tuesday warned of default risks and legal action from creditors as it scrambles to repair its balance sheet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170790530,"gmtCreate":1626449309920,"gmtModify":1703760488178,"author":{"id":"3582025318145745","authorId":"3582025318145745","name":"Mizi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342e396041be5df2f33768ddae98b887","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582025318145745","idStr":"3582025318145745"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest comment","listText":"Latest comment","text":"Latest 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