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2021-07-19

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$Disappointing :(

2021-07-13

Pfizer vs moderna… which to buy hmmm

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2021-07-21

Hmm

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2021-07-14

$Bank of America(BAC)$What the heck?? Pls BAC dont do this

2021-07-11

Hmmm cloud stocks

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2021-07-10

Apple!

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2021-07-24

What’s a good price to buy Nio?

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks

2021-07-10

Amazon??

Coupang Vs. Amazon Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?

2021-07-10

Great read!

The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why

2021-07-14

$XIAOMI-W(01810)$Go higher pls

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>\n <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>\n <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p>\n<p><b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p>\n<p>Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p>\n<p><b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p>\n<p>The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p>\n<p>Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p>\n<p>The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p>\n<p>Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p>\n<p><b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p>\n<p>When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p>\n<p>It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p>\n<p>One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175079063,"gmtCreate":1627000429552,"gmtModify":1703482102214,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What’s happening?&nbsp;","listText":"What’s happening?&nbsp;","text":"What’s happening?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b126c71fcb518af2fb45ea5ba4107e4","width":"1125","height":"3654"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175079063","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172210120,"gmtCreate":1626962046560,"gmtModify":1703481453314,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it drop further? Pick??","listText":"Will it drop further? Pick??","text":"Will it drop further? Pick??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02731c55a46876e7151b32b9cabecaf","width":"1125","height":"2605"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172210120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178535972,"gmtCreate":1626826917596,"gmtModify":1703765860353,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178535972","repostId":"2153694773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173850600,"gmtCreate":1626654072800,"gmtModify":1703762672068,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>Disappointing :(","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>Disappointing :(","text":"$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$Disappointing :(","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0901da7b48e2323d03788a85fd89ef4","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173850600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173827650,"gmtCreate":1626654026170,"gmtModify":1703762670767,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good price to continue buying?","listText":"Good price to continue buying?","text":"Good price to continue buying?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a53864ba710470d328dc51bd2af6424","width":"1125","height":"3068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173827650","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173827037,"gmtCreate":1626653988629,"gmtModify":1703762670281,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is this a good price to buy?","listText":"Is this a good price to buy?","text":"Is this a good price to buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff140c21801afa8cbc0f4bfb62b9cc70","width":"1125","height":"3068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173827037","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170724888,"gmtCreate":1626453778244,"gmtModify":1703760568928,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Let’s go up!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Let’s go up!!","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Let’s go up!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abab7026a29f99a187a5ada2f9e1df5d","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170724888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170135203,"gmtCreate":1626410979702,"gmtModify":1703759646101,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please don’t drop further…&nbsp;","listText":"Please don’t drop further…&nbsp;","text":"Please don’t drop further…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f469d80fd7902b1cdfe2a7b5f1a23d95","width":"1125","height":"2425"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170135203","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170132420,"gmtCreate":1626410902260,"gmtModify":1703759644590,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it too high to buy now?","listText":"Is it too high to buy now?","text":"Is it too high to buy now?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f80c0cb9e6aa69fc5852b8df7c2fa2","width":"1125","height":"2507"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170132420","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144701677,"gmtCreate":1626312771799,"gmtModify":1703757629786,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold or sell? Will it drop further?","listText":"Hold or sell? Will it drop further?","text":"Hold or sell? Will it drop further?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5ad3fe50923f38d717d1e8fe31b66c8","width":"1125","height":"2588"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144701677","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144308702,"gmtCreate":1626265814806,"gmtModify":1703756629832,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Come on BAC","listText":"Come on BAC","text":"Come on BAC","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144308702","repostId":"1142748736","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144301263,"gmtCreate":1626265729852,"gmtModify":1703756628045,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>What the heck?? Pls BAC dont do this&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>What the heck?? Pls BAC dont do this&nbsp;","text":"$Bank of America(BAC)$What the heck?? Pls BAC dont do this","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/695be1cf005f6ddba32d86fc20f95a8d","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144301263","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570231086919309","authorId":"3570231086919309","name":"Shunji","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872d39a4d7c77a9034cbe7c184d5c9bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3570231086919309","authorIdStr":"3570231086919309"},"content":"No need worry,will rise back easily,uptrends are forming when all retails “soft” investors are out? Below $39 Is bargain price","text":"No need worry,will rise back easily,uptrends are forming when all retails “soft” investors are out? Below $39 Is bargain price","html":"No need worry,will rise back easily,uptrends are forming when all retails “soft” investors are out? Below $39 Is bargain price"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145568887,"gmtCreate":1626230983249,"gmtModify":1703755987958,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>Go higher pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>Go higher pls","text":"$XIAOMI-W(01810)$Go higher pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99082539249046c24516926bd21c4b23","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145568887","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145568012,"gmtCreate":1626230951636,"gmtModify":1703755987796,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Views???","listText":"Views???","text":"Views???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/134537420aec9e6efb5f779cbb58cb08","width":"1125","height":"1974"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145568012","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142189091,"gmtCreate":1626136437013,"gmtModify":1703753978013,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pfizer vs moderna… which to buy hmmm","listText":"Pfizer vs moderna… which to buy hmmm","text":"Pfizer vs moderna… which to buy hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142189091","repostId":"2150346538","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142117263,"gmtCreate":1626136392852,"gmtModify":1703753976375,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>chance to go up further?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>chance to go up further?","text":"$XIAOMI-W(01810)$chance to go up further?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3b9240ce7842009795c78d5bc1a9fcd","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142117263","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142112746,"gmtCreate":1626136288085,"gmtModify":1703753972226,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good buy???","listText":"Good buy???","text":"Good buy???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9729e8735c751ceff5bb3da2c0c9a7","width":"1125","height":"2588"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142112746","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146945105,"gmtCreate":1626051436607,"gmtModify":1703752314516,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146945105","repostId":"1161725031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146954140,"gmtCreate":1626051067180,"gmtModify":1703752303904,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ETF good buy?","listText":"ETF good buy?","text":"ETF good buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8f90b9b5b8ac1c9c1ba366c96b7fe0","width":"1125","height":"1974"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146954140","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":173850600,"gmtCreate":1626654072800,"gmtModify":1703762672068,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>Disappointing :(","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>Disappointing :(","text":"$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$Disappointing :(","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0901da7b48e2323d03788a85fd89ef4","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173850600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142189091,"gmtCreate":1626136437013,"gmtModify":1703753978013,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pfizer vs moderna… which to buy hmmm","listText":"Pfizer vs moderna… which to buy hmmm","text":"Pfizer vs moderna… which to buy hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142189091","repostId":"2150346538","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178535972,"gmtCreate":1626826917596,"gmtModify":1703765860353,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178535972","repostId":"2153694773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144301263,"gmtCreate":1626265729852,"gmtModify":1703756628045,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>What the heck?? Pls BAC dont do this&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>What the heck?? Pls BAC dont do this&nbsp;","text":"$Bank of America(BAC)$What the heck?? Pls BAC dont do this","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/695be1cf005f6ddba32d86fc20f95a8d","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144301263","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570231086919309","authorId":"3570231086919309","name":"Shunji","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872d39a4d7c77a9034cbe7c184d5c9bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3570231086919309","authorIdStr":"3570231086919309"},"content":"No need worry,will rise back easily,uptrends are forming when all retails “soft” investors are out? Below $39 Is bargain price","text":"No need worry,will rise back easily,uptrends are forming when all retails “soft” investors are out? Below $39 Is bargain price","html":"No need worry,will rise back easily,uptrends are forming when all retails “soft” investors are out? Below $39 Is bargain price"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148148857,"gmtCreate":1625963422179,"gmtModify":1703751199101,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm cloud stocks&nbsp;","listText":"Hmmm cloud stocks&nbsp;","text":"Hmmm cloud stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148148857","repostId":"2150370120","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141750908,"gmtCreate":1625893515804,"gmtModify":1703750624292,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple!&nbsp;","listText":"Apple!&nbsp;","text":"Apple!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141750908","repostId":"1177397700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174699952,"gmtCreate":1627093319876,"gmtModify":1703484123041,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What’s a good price to buy Nio?","listText":"What’s a good price to buy Nio?","text":"What’s a good price to buy Nio?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174699952","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112927800?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>\n <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>\n <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p>\n<p><b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p>\n<p>Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p>\n<p><b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p>\n<p>The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p>\n<p>Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p>\n<p>The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p>\n<p>Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p>\n<p><b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p>\n<p>When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p>\n<p>It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p>\n<p>One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141758335,"gmtCreate":1625893924727,"gmtModify":1703750630324,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amazon??&nbsp;","listText":"Amazon??&nbsp;","text":"Amazon??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141758335","repostId":"1162091150","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162091150","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625882272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162091150?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 09:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coupang Vs. Amazon Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162091150","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nE-commerce has benefitted from the pandemic, but will continue to enjoy healthy growth in t","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>E-commerce has benefitted from the pandemic, but will continue to enjoy healthy growth in the coming years.</li>\n <li>Both Amazon and Coupang are generating strong growth, with CPNG growing faster, but from a much slower base.</li>\n <li>There are advantages for both companies, and ultimately, which stock you prefer will depend on your investment goals and approach.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/892697f4211267c99a72ea0a86b7e464\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>blackCAT/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>E-commerce has benefitted a lot from pandemic-related shopping trends that favored online shopping versus in-store shopping, but even apart from that, e-commerce is here to stay and will enjoy healthy growth for many years. Amazon.com, Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN)is the most dominant online retailer in the West, but other markets are primarily served by other online shopping companies. Coupang Inc.(NYSE:CPNG)from South Korea recently IPO'd in the US, and in this article, we will pitch the two against each other. Amazon looks like the more complete company with a wider moat to me, but Coupang is also an interesting play due to its position in an attractive, high-growth market.</p>\n<p><b>Coupang Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Coupang Inc. has IPO'd in the US in March, raising more than&nbsp;$4 billion. Shares are currently trading for $40, which is below the prices of ~$50 that the stock traded at shortly following its IPO:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc6beaaae203d6b0db64793dd67bbbc9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares have, however, risen considerably from the lows that the company hit in May, which could be the result of improving sentiment as the company reported&nbsp;very solid Q1 results&nbsp;that showed the company grew faster than expected. The current consensus price target is $44, which indicates that analysts are expecting an upside potential of around 10% over the next year -- solid, but not spectacular. Coupang is backed by major investors including&nbsp;the Gates Foundation&nbsp;and Softbank(OTCPK:SFTBY), which indicates that this is much more than a hyped-up IPO.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Amazon.com, Inc. has been trading for a much longer period than Coupang, and it is a way larger company already. Over the years, shares generated strong returns for investors that held onto shares, the 10-year return is north of 1,600%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6be201519c9538851784f110ef0f13f3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In 2021, however, shares have so far not risen by a lot, as investors do seem to favor stocks with exposure to economic reopening right now. Energy names, hospitality, etc. have been hot so far this year, whereas the big tech names such as Amazon, which had been strong performers in 2020, have not experienced huge gains year-to-date. The current analyst consensus price target for Amazon's shares is $4240, which suggests upside potential of around 15%, a little more than what analysts are expecting from Coupang right now.</p>\n<p><b>Coupang's Size Relative To Amazon?</b></p>\n<p>It's pretty obvious that Coupang is not bigger than Amazon. It doesn't matter whether you look at market capitalizations, revenue, profits, cash flows, or the employee count, Amazon is a giant and significantly larger than its South Korean peer:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e93ec2cee718b6836730e5b0d94cd2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"577\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>This isn't too much of a surprise, as Amazon has been founded 27 years ago and has had a lot of time to grow, whereas Coupang has only been around for a little over a decade. Amazon in 2005, when it was 11 years old, was a way smaller company than it is today, and it also was still unprofitable -- as Coupang is today. There is, however, no need to always buy the biggest companies, thus Amazon being larger than Coupang today does not necessarily equate to Amazon being a better investment. Other factors have to be considered for that as well.</p>\n<p><b>Is Coupang Better Than Amazon?</b></p>\n<p>When considering an investment, things that should be factored in are the growth outlook for a company, the stock's valuation, the company's risk profile and standing relative to competitors, and the overall quality.</p>\n<p>Looking at Coupang and Amazon, both companies are naturally poised to benefit from a long-term megatrend -- shopping shifting from brick-and-mortar to e-commerce. Note that this doesn't mean that brick-and-mortar retailers are all poised to die out, as we believe that higher-quality brick-and-mortar retailers (e.g. Home Depot(NYSE:HD)) and higher-quality brick-and-mortar real estate (e.g. Simon Property Group(NYSE:SPG)) will continue to do well. It is nevertheless relatively clear that, overall, e-commerce will continue to gain market share versus brick-and-mortar, with lower-quality traditional retailers taking the majority of the hit. Some goods are just very easily bought online, e.g. everyday clothes, books, etc. and online retailers should continue to make gains in these areas. On top of that, the overall consumer market continues to grow in both the US and internationally, which benefits online retailers as well.</p>\n<p>Amazon and Coupang also have the ability to boost their growth by expanding into additional markets, either geographically, or by building out new businesses. Amazon has very successfully done so and has become a major retailer not only in the US, but in many additional markets on top of that, and Amazon has also successfully built out a high-growth cloud computing business and is becoming a major player in online advertising.</p>\n<p>Coupang, as a much smaller and younger company, has not had the ability to expand its business as much as Amazon yet. Still, the Korean online retailer has managed to grow its business at a highly attractive pace, and one might even say that Coupang has outperformed Amazon in its home market South Korea. The company's success can be attributed to a smart and customer-focused approach that includes<i>Dawn Delivery</i>, a service that allows customers to order before midnight and receiving their order before 7 am the next day. Coupang also has reduced cardboard packaging significantly relative to how other online retailers operate, a move that resonates well with environmentally conscious customers. Through these measures and others, Coupang has been able to deliver rapid revenue growth in the recent past, which includes a massive 75% revenue increase during the most recent quarter. Amazon grew its revenue by 44% in the most recent quarter, although it should be noted that Amazon is growing from a much larger base. The law of large numbers means that Amazon, due to its already very large size, can't grow at the rapid rates Coupang is currently seeing any longer, and the fact that Amazon is, despite its size, still growing at an attractive 40%+ pace is testament to its strong business model.</p>\n<p>Coupang is the higher-growth company today, and one can expect that this will remain the case in the foreseeable future, with the smaller size being a key factor for that -- growing revenue from $20 billion to $40 billion is easier than growing revenue from $500 billion to $1 trillion. Coupang is, however, unlike Amazon, not profitable yet, which may result in share count dilution as Coupang could do a secondary offering to access additional capital. Coupang is also less diversified than Amazon, both geographically and when it comes to different industries. Amazon, with its marketing and cloud computing platforms, is more of a diversified company than Coupang, which is fully reliant on e-commerce.</p>\n<p>I don't think that there is a clear 'better buy' here, as both companies have their pros and cons. Coupang is growing faster and could double or triple its revenue more easily, but Amazon could be called the more dominant, wider-moat, more diversified pick that is also profitable and generates huge cash flows already.</p>\n<p>Looking at valuations, we can't value Coupang based on profits, as those are not existent yet. Taking a look at the two companies' respective market capitalizations relative to the revenues that they generate, we get the following picture:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b42b77df5f43ac7316fdb87ed98010\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>We see that both companies trade around 3.5x forward revenue, thus from a valuation perspective, there is no major difference here, except for the fact that AMZN is, unlike CPNG, generating profits with these revenues. One could thus argue that AMZN's revenues are of a higher quality compared to the revenues generated by CPNG.</p>\n<p>Comparing the P/S valuations of AMZN and CPNG trade at compared to some other online retailers, both companies do seem relatively inexpensive:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9a55a87fb44372d3e5b188f34ff98e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Many other online retailers trade at significantly higher sales multiples, including Shopify(NYSE:SHOP), which seems ultra-expensive at more than 40x forward. In Shopify's defense, one can argue that its more \"techy\" business deserves a higher sales multiple compared to the pure retailers. But even when one compares AMZN and CPNG to more similar companies such as Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD)or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI), both AMZN and CPNG do seem inexpensive.</p>\n<p><b>Is Coupang Or Amazon Stock The Better Buy?</b></p>\n<p>As shown above, both companies do have their advantages, and which company you ultimately will prefer depends on what things you value the most when choosing an investment. Due to its larger scale, profitability, and strong diversification AMZN seems like the lower-risk choice to me, and its dominant position in its home market and the highly attractive cloud computing market position it well for the future, I believe. Coupang is not unattractive, either, however, and its higher revenue growth rate, coupled with an inexpensive sales multiple, could allow for considerable long-term upside.</p>\n<p>Neither company is risk-less, and due to the online retailers' exposure to consumer spending, both companies could be exposed to an economic downturn -- which I don't see as likely in the foreseeable future, however. On top of that, regulation seems like a possible risk, which may be more pronounced for Amazon due to its much larger size. On the other hand, Amazon is less dependent on a single geographic market, which results in some built-in diversification relative to the more focused Coupang.</p>\n<p>Depending on whether you want a diversified giant that is entrenched in many different markets, or whether you prefer a pure-play on consumers in South Korea, Amazon and/or Coupang could both be solid choices for your portfolio. I personally am long Amazon and see this stock&nbsp;delivering solid gains&nbsp;in the long run, even though shares aren't especially cheap at 67x this year's profits.</p>\n<p>Coupang is definitely an interesting choice as well, however, especially when we consider that its shares do trade at a massive discount relative to other regionally-focused mid-sized online retailers such as MercadoLibre and Pinduoduo.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coupang Vs. Amazon Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoupang Vs. Amazon Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 09:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438343-coupang-vs-amazon-stock-better-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nE-commerce has benefitted from the pandemic, but will continue to enjoy healthy growth in the coming years.\nBoth Amazon and Coupang are generating strong growth, with CPNG growing faster, but...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438343-coupang-vs-amazon-stock-better-buy\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","CPNG":"Coupang, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438343-coupang-vs-amazon-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162091150","content_text":"Summary\n\nE-commerce has benefitted from the pandemic, but will continue to enjoy healthy growth in the coming years.\nBoth Amazon and Coupang are generating strong growth, with CPNG growing faster, but from a much slower base.\nThere are advantages for both companies, and ultimately, which stock you prefer will depend on your investment goals and approach.\n\nblackCAT/E+ via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nE-commerce has benefitted a lot from pandemic-related shopping trends that favored online shopping versus in-store shopping, but even apart from that, e-commerce is here to stay and will enjoy healthy growth for many years. Amazon.com, Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN)is the most dominant online retailer in the West, but other markets are primarily served by other online shopping companies. Coupang Inc.(NYSE:CPNG)from South Korea recently IPO'd in the US, and in this article, we will pitch the two against each other. Amazon looks like the more complete company with a wider moat to me, but Coupang is also an interesting play due to its position in an attractive, high-growth market.\nCoupang Stock Price\nCoupang Inc. has IPO'd in the US in March, raising more than $4 billion. Shares are currently trading for $40, which is below the prices of ~$50 that the stock traded at shortly following its IPO:\nData by YCharts\nShares have, however, risen considerably from the lows that the company hit in May, which could be the result of improving sentiment as the company reported very solid Q1 results that showed the company grew faster than expected. The current consensus price target is $44, which indicates that analysts are expecting an upside potential of around 10% over the next year -- solid, but not spectacular. Coupang is backed by major investors including the Gates Foundation and Softbank(OTCPK:SFTBY), which indicates that this is much more than a hyped-up IPO.\nAmazon Stock Price\nAmazon.com, Inc. has been trading for a much longer period than Coupang, and it is a way larger company already. Over the years, shares generated strong returns for investors that held onto shares, the 10-year return is north of 1,600%.\nData by YCharts\nIn 2021, however, shares have so far not risen by a lot, as investors do seem to favor stocks with exposure to economic reopening right now. Energy names, hospitality, etc. have been hot so far this year, whereas the big tech names such as Amazon, which had been strong performers in 2020, have not experienced huge gains year-to-date. The current analyst consensus price target for Amazon's shares is $4240, which suggests upside potential of around 15%, a little more than what analysts are expecting from Coupang right now.\nCoupang's Size Relative To Amazon?\nIt's pretty obvious that Coupang is not bigger than Amazon. It doesn't matter whether you look at market capitalizations, revenue, profits, cash flows, or the employee count, Amazon is a giant and significantly larger than its South Korean peer:\nData by YCharts\nThis isn't too much of a surprise, as Amazon has been founded 27 years ago and has had a lot of time to grow, whereas Coupang has only been around for a little over a decade. Amazon in 2005, when it was 11 years old, was a way smaller company than it is today, and it also was still unprofitable -- as Coupang is today. There is, however, no need to always buy the biggest companies, thus Amazon being larger than Coupang today does not necessarily equate to Amazon being a better investment. Other factors have to be considered for that as well.\nIs Coupang Better Than Amazon?\nWhen considering an investment, things that should be factored in are the growth outlook for a company, the stock's valuation, the company's risk profile and standing relative to competitors, and the overall quality.\nLooking at Coupang and Amazon, both companies are naturally poised to benefit from a long-term megatrend -- shopping shifting from brick-and-mortar to e-commerce. Note that this doesn't mean that brick-and-mortar retailers are all poised to die out, as we believe that higher-quality brick-and-mortar retailers (e.g. Home Depot(NYSE:HD)) and higher-quality brick-and-mortar real estate (e.g. Simon Property Group(NYSE:SPG)) will continue to do well. It is nevertheless relatively clear that, overall, e-commerce will continue to gain market share versus brick-and-mortar, with lower-quality traditional retailers taking the majority of the hit. Some goods are just very easily bought online, e.g. everyday clothes, books, etc. and online retailers should continue to make gains in these areas. On top of that, the overall consumer market continues to grow in both the US and internationally, which benefits online retailers as well.\nAmazon and Coupang also have the ability to boost their growth by expanding into additional markets, either geographically, or by building out new businesses. Amazon has very successfully done so and has become a major retailer not only in the US, but in many additional markets on top of that, and Amazon has also successfully built out a high-growth cloud computing business and is becoming a major player in online advertising.\nCoupang, as a much smaller and younger company, has not had the ability to expand its business as much as Amazon yet. Still, the Korean online retailer has managed to grow its business at a highly attractive pace, and one might even say that Coupang has outperformed Amazon in its home market South Korea. The company's success can be attributed to a smart and customer-focused approach that includesDawn Delivery, a service that allows customers to order before midnight and receiving their order before 7 am the next day. Coupang also has reduced cardboard packaging significantly relative to how other online retailers operate, a move that resonates well with environmentally conscious customers. Through these measures and others, Coupang has been able to deliver rapid revenue growth in the recent past, which includes a massive 75% revenue increase during the most recent quarter. Amazon grew its revenue by 44% in the most recent quarter, although it should be noted that Amazon is growing from a much larger base. The law of large numbers means that Amazon, due to its already very large size, can't grow at the rapid rates Coupang is currently seeing any longer, and the fact that Amazon is, despite its size, still growing at an attractive 40%+ pace is testament to its strong business model.\nCoupang is the higher-growth company today, and one can expect that this will remain the case in the foreseeable future, with the smaller size being a key factor for that -- growing revenue from $20 billion to $40 billion is easier than growing revenue from $500 billion to $1 trillion. Coupang is, however, unlike Amazon, not profitable yet, which may result in share count dilution as Coupang could do a secondary offering to access additional capital. Coupang is also less diversified than Amazon, both geographically and when it comes to different industries. Amazon, with its marketing and cloud computing platforms, is more of a diversified company than Coupang, which is fully reliant on e-commerce.\nI don't think that there is a clear 'better buy' here, as both companies have their pros and cons. Coupang is growing faster and could double or triple its revenue more easily, but Amazon could be called the more dominant, wider-moat, more diversified pick that is also profitable and generates huge cash flows already.\nLooking at valuations, we can't value Coupang based on profits, as those are not existent yet. Taking a look at the two companies' respective market capitalizations relative to the revenues that they generate, we get the following picture:\nData by YCharts\nWe see that both companies trade around 3.5x forward revenue, thus from a valuation perspective, there is no major difference here, except for the fact that AMZN is, unlike CPNG, generating profits with these revenues. One could thus argue that AMZN's revenues are of a higher quality compared to the revenues generated by CPNG.\nComparing the P/S valuations of AMZN and CPNG trade at compared to some other online retailers, both companies do seem relatively inexpensive:\nData by YCharts\nMany other online retailers trade at significantly higher sales multiples, including Shopify(NYSE:SHOP), which seems ultra-expensive at more than 40x forward. In Shopify's defense, one can argue that its more \"techy\" business deserves a higher sales multiple compared to the pure retailers. But even when one compares AMZN and CPNG to more similar companies such as Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD)or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI), both AMZN and CPNG do seem inexpensive.\nIs Coupang Or Amazon Stock The Better Buy?\nAs shown above, both companies do have their advantages, and which company you ultimately will prefer depends on what things you value the most when choosing an investment. Due to its larger scale, profitability, and strong diversification AMZN seems like the lower-risk choice to me, and its dominant position in its home market and the highly attractive cloud computing market position it well for the future, I believe. Coupang is not unattractive, either, however, and its higher revenue growth rate, coupled with an inexpensive sales multiple, could allow for considerable long-term upside.\nNeither company is risk-less, and due to the online retailers' exposure to consumer spending, both companies could be exposed to an economic downturn -- which I don't see as likely in the foreseeable future, however. On top of that, regulation seems like a possible risk, which may be more pronounced for Amazon due to its much larger size. On the other hand, Amazon is less dependent on a single geographic market, which results in some built-in diversification relative to the more focused Coupang.\nDepending on whether you want a diversified giant that is entrenched in many different markets, or whether you prefer a pure-play on consumers in South Korea, Amazon and/or Coupang could both be solid choices for your portfolio. I personally am long Amazon and see this stock delivering solid gains in the long run, even though shares aren't especially cheap at 67x this year's profits.\nCoupang is definitely an interesting choice as well, however, especially when we consider that its shares do trade at a massive discount relative to other regionally-focused mid-sized online retailers such as MercadoLibre and Pinduoduo.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CPNG":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141759098,"gmtCreate":1625893571814,"gmtModify":1703750625593,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great read!","listText":"Great read!","text":"Great read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141759098","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185154176?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p>\n<p>It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p>\n<p>Here’s why.</p>\n<p>We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p>\n<p><b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p>\n<p>Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p>\n<p>First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p>\n<p>Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p>\n<p>Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p>\n<p>Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p>\n<p>Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p>\n<p>You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p>\n<p>Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p>\n<p><b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p>\n<p>Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p>\n<p>“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p>\n<p>Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p>\n<p>For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p>\n<p>Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p>\n<p><b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p>\n<p>Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p>\n<p><b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p>\n<p>We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p>\n<p>This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p>\n<p>True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p>\n<p><b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p>\n<p>As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p>\n<p><b>Three themes to follow</b></p>\n<p>If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p>\n<p><b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p>\n<p><b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p>\n<p><b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145568887,"gmtCreate":1626230983249,"gmtModify":1703755987958,"author":{"id":"3582194736755428","authorId":"3582194736755428","name":"Blahblah1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582194736755428","authorIdStr":"3582194736755428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>Go higher pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>Go higher pls","text":"$XIAOMI-W(01810)$Go higher pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99082539249046c24516926bd21c4b23","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145568887","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}