lcGoh personal page - To The Moon

lcGoh

lcGoh

No personal profile

38Follow

0Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-02-18

J

Opening | New situations occurred in Russia and the United States, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell

2022-02-20

P

Earn 500 times in 26 years! Can leeks really counterattack?

2022-02-20

L

Are Hong Kong stocks worthy of our gentle treatment?

2022-02-06

L

Big bargain hunting! 60 trillion yuan asset management giant new products launched and bought these stocks

2022-03-14

Yed

Where will the market go under geopolitical turmoil and the epidemic?

2022-03-02

L

Fed Chairman Powell: March rate hike is expected to be appropriate

2022-02-15

L

Rivian rose 10%, Soros bought in Q4, and the market value of the position exceeded US $2 billion

2022-02-11

J

The operation of thousands of mines is suspended, and Southeast Asia's major resource exporting countries are causing trouble. What is the impact?

2022-02-11

L

The operation of thousands of mines is suspended, and Southeast Asia's major resource exporting countries are causing trouble. What is the impact?

2021-07-03

Like

Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5

2022-03-14

Yeds

Next week's blockbuster agenda: Will the Fed rate hike?

2022-03-14

I

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-08

L

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-05

L

During the U.S. rate hike, will the outcome of interest rate cuts against the trend be good?

2022-02-20

O

Are Hong Kong stocks worthy of our gentle treatment?

2022-02-19

K

Opening | The Nasdaq rose slightly, and the Russian-Ukrainian border began to evacuate people

2022-02-13

L

Soros's positions are exposed! Short Nasdaq funds and reduce holdings of technology stocks

2022-02-08

L

Opening: Peloton rose more than 28%, Alibaba fell 5%

2022-03-14

Yed

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-14

K

Next week's blockbuster agenda: Will the Fed rate hike?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3583111190875685","uuid":"3583111190875685","gmtCreate":1620018053186,"gmtModify":1655931331844,"name":"lcGoh","pinyin":"lcgoh","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":38,"tweetSize":118,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.06.12","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":190249042440240,"gmtCreate":1687473221441,"gmtModify":1687473224643,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"U","listText":"U","text":"U","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190249042440240","repostId":"1175881376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175881376","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1687443697,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175881376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 22:21","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Fed Chairman Powell: Another rate hike twice this year would be appropriate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175881376","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席参议院银行业委员会听证会时表示，今年再次加息两次将是适当的。他表示，保持利率不变是为了给自己更多时间做决策，委员会中绝大多数人认为利率还有一点上升空间，需要持续努力，以","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 22,<strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing that it would be appropriate to rate hike twice again this year. He said that keeping interest rates unchanged is to give himself more time to make decisions. The vast majority of people in the committee believe that there is still a little room for interest rates to rise, and continuous efforts are needed to return to 2% inflation.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Referring to the U.S. labor market, Powell said that labor market wages are still very high, but they are gradually moving towards sustainable levels. It is possible to achieve a better balance in the labor market without increasing unemployment, but there is no guarantee that this will be achieved.</p><p><strong>Powell said the Fed is committed to learning the right lessons from Silicon Valley Bank and will strengthen regulation and oversight of banks the size of Silicon Valley Bank.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At the same time, the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to banks with real estate exposure and taking active actions to try to help such banks cope with the concentration risk of commercial real estate. The Federal Reserve will cooperate with banks with high commercial real estate holdings and is very concerned about risk exposure in the commercial real estate sector.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>In addition, the Federal Reserve will propose a plan to increase capital requirements for large banks. The Federal Reserve may raise capital requirements for large banks by 20%, and the new capital requirements will not apply to banks with assets below $100 billion.</strong>The Federal Reserve is committed to strengthening supervision of medium-sized banks, so as to ensure that banks maintain a reasonable balance between capital security and credit costs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Powell stressed that the U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path and needs to be fixed. Paper losses on the Fed's balance sheet have no impact on the Fed's monetary policy ability, and there is still a long way to go to solve the U.S. inflation problem.</p><p>Powell said the San Francisco Fed's action against Silicon Valley Bank was not strong enough. In response to the significant impact of the Silicon Valley Bank incident, the United States needs to fix its liquidity regulation. In the process of overseeing Silicon Valley Bank, regulatory mistakes are not just happening at the San Francisco Fed, but also at the Federal Reserve Board.</p><p><strong>Powell said he believes the U.S. economy has a path to a soft landing.</strong>The Fed does expect more rate hike at the moment, but needs more data support. The United States is very close to the interest rate target, but it is wise to act cautiously, and we don't want excessive rate hike to have a negative effect on the market.</p><p>Referring to the recent hot U.S. labor market, Powell said that the labor force participation rate has increased more than expected. The Fed will do as little damage to the labor market and the economy as possible. Ideally, the relaxation of most labor markets will occur in other ways that will not lead to job losses. With a small increase in unemployment, inflation is expected to continue to decline. The unemployment rate is expected to rise a little further. Still see a path to inflation relief without causing mass unemployment.</p><p>Powell says the labor market will gradually cool and inflation will ease; The overwhelming majority of the committee believes there will be two more rate hike before the end of this year; Last week's decision to suspend rate hike was to move forward more slowly in the future; The Fed is now close to what it needs to achieve.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d28b60461b1f68206b3e27de532fa\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"327\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Chairman Powell: Another rate hike twice this year would be appropriate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Chairman Powell: Another rate hike twice this year would be appropriate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-06-22 22:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 22,<strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing that it would be appropriate to rate hike twice again this year. He said that keeping interest rates unchanged is to give himself more time to make decisions. The vast majority of people in the committee believe that there is still a little room for interest rates to rise, and continuous efforts are needed to return to 2% inflation.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Referring to the U.S. labor market, Powell said that labor market wages are still very high, but they are gradually moving towards sustainable levels. It is possible to achieve a better balance in the labor market without increasing unemployment, but there is no guarantee that this will be achieved.</p><p><strong>Powell said the Fed is committed to learning the right lessons from Silicon Valley Bank and will strengthen regulation and oversight of banks the size of Silicon Valley Bank.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">At the same time, the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to banks with real estate exposure and taking active actions to try to help such banks cope with the concentration risk of commercial real estate. The Federal Reserve will cooperate with banks with high commercial real estate holdings and is very concerned about risk exposure in the commercial real estate sector.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>In addition, the Federal Reserve will propose a plan to increase capital requirements for large banks. The Federal Reserve may raise capital requirements for large banks by 20%, and the new capital requirements will not apply to banks with assets below $100 billion.</strong>The Federal Reserve is committed to strengthening supervision of medium-sized banks, so as to ensure that banks maintain a reasonable balance between capital security and credit costs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Powell stressed that the U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path and needs to be fixed. Paper losses on the Fed's balance sheet have no impact on the Fed's monetary policy ability, and there is still a long way to go to solve the U.S. inflation problem.</p><p>Powell said the San Francisco Fed's action against Silicon Valley Bank was not strong enough. In response to the significant impact of the Silicon Valley Bank incident, the United States needs to fix its liquidity regulation. In the process of overseeing Silicon Valley Bank, regulatory mistakes are not just happening at the San Francisco Fed, but also at the Federal Reserve Board.</p><p><strong>Powell said he believes the U.S. economy has a path to a soft landing.</strong>The Fed does expect more rate hike at the moment, but needs more data support. The United States is very close to the interest rate target, but it is wise to act cautiously, and we don't want excessive rate hike to have a negative effect on the market.</p><p>Referring to the recent hot U.S. labor market, Powell said that the labor force participation rate has increased more than expected. The Fed will do as little damage to the labor market and the economy as possible. Ideally, the relaxation of most labor markets will occur in other ways that will not lead to job losses. With a small increase in unemployment, inflation is expected to continue to decline. The unemployment rate is expected to rise a little further. Still see a path to inflation relief without causing mass unemployment.</p><p>Powell says the labor market will gradually cool and inflation will ease; The overwhelming majority of the committee believes there will be two more rate hike before the end of this year; Last week's decision to suspend rate hike was to move forward more slowly in the future; The Fed is now close to what it needs to achieve.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d28b60461b1f68206b3e27de532fa\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"327\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48d28b60461b1f68206b3e27de532fa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175881376","content_text":"6月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席参议院银行业委员会听证会时表示，今年再次加息两次将是适当的。他表示，保持利率不变是为了给自己更多时间做决策，委员会中绝大多数人认为利率还有一点上升空间，需要持续努力，以恢复至2%的通胀水平。提及美国劳动力市场时，鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场工资仍然很高，但正在逐渐趋向可持续的水平。劳动力市场在不增加失业率的情况下实现更好平衡是可能的，但并不保证一定会实现这一目标。鲍威尔表示，美联储致力于从硅谷银行中吸取正确的教训，将加强对类似硅谷银行这样规模的银行的监管和监督。同时，美联储正在密切关注拥有房地产风险敞口的银行，并积极采取行动，试图帮助这类银行应对商业地产集中风险。美联储将与商业地产持有量较高的银行展开合作，并对商业房地产领域风险敞口十分关切。此外，美联储将提出增加对大型银行资本要求的方案。美联储可能将对大型银行的资本要求提高20%，新的资本要求不适用于资产规模低于1000亿美元的银行。联储致力于加强对中型银行的监管，从而确保银行在资金安全和信贷成本之间保持合理平衡。鲍威尔强调，美国联邦预算走上了不可持续的道路，需要对此进行修复。美联储资产负债表上的纸面损失对美联储的货币政策能力没有影响，解决美国通胀问题仍有很长的路要走。鲍威尔表示，旧金山联邦储备银行对硅谷银行的行动不够强有力。针对硅谷银行事件所造成的重大影响，美国需要修复对流动性的监管。在监督硅谷银行的过程中，监管失误不仅仅发生在旧金山联邦储备银行，也发生在美联储委员会。鲍威尔表示，认为美国经济有通往软着陆的道路。美联储目前确实预计会有更多的加息，但需要更多数据支持。美国离利率目标已经很接近了，但谨慎行动是明智之举，不想过度加息对市场造成反向作用。提及近期火热的美国劳动力市场，鲍威尔表示，劳动参与率上升超过预期。美联储将尽可能少地对劳动力市场和经济造成损害。理想情况下，大多数劳动力市场的放松将以其他方式出现，不会导致失业。随着失业率的小幅增加，通胀有望继续下降。预计失业率将会进一步上升一点。仍然看到存在一种在不造成大规模失业的情况下实现通胀缓解的途径。鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场将逐渐降温，通胀将缓解；委员会的绝大多数成员认为今年年底前还会有两次加息；上周的暂停加息决定是为了今后更慢地前进；美联储目前已接近需要达到的目标。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190248855609608,"gmtCreate":1687473207431,"gmtModify":1687473210898,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190248855609608","repostId":"2345757673","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2345757673","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687444562,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2345757673?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 22:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan: If the Fed does not cut interest rates, U.S. stocks will be in trouble in the second half of this year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2345757673","media":"智通财经","summary":"摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，随着美联储激进收紧货币政策的滞后影响赶上经济增长，美国股市将在今年下半年陷入困境。尽管美股今年迄今为止的反弹与Marko Kolanovi","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief global market strategist Marko Kolanovic said U.S. stocks will struggle in the second half of the year as the lagging impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening catches up with economic growth.</p><p>Although the rebound in U.S. stocks so far this year is inconsistent with Marko Kolanovic's bearish forecast, he still reiterated his defensive view and warned that factors such as a deteriorating business environment and slowing consumer demand suggest that a recession is coming and may hinder U.S. stocks rebound this year.</p><p>Marko Kolanovic said in a note on Thursday: \"On the stock market front, the Fed has not preemptively shifted to easing policy, but hinted at two more rate hike by the end of the year. We expect U.S. stocks to face a more challenging macro backdrop in the second half of the year. While stocks are sharply revalued, consumer trends will soften.\" He warned that multiple expansions and weakening pricing power make the risk-reward of U.S. stocks unattractive. Another worrying factor, he added, is \"growing investor complacency\" ahead of a potential recession and \"in short, there is a high risk of another unknown risk resurfacing\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/465325619ef8760a38cb1ef975f06532\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"/></p><p>Differences of views on Wall Street on the outlook for U.S. stocks are intensifying. In addition to Marko Kolanovic, well-known bears on Wall Street,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategist Michael Wilson insisted on his bearish view on the U.S. stock market and further emphasized the view that the corporate earnings recession will continue in a recent report. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street since last year, also insisted on being bearish on U.S. stocks. He believes that the logic of the rise in U.S. stocks is untenable, and the recent \"fear of an economic recession in the first quarter\" is turning into \"greed for Goldilocks in the second quarter.\"</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin is optimistic about the future trend of U.S. stocks. David Kostin said this recent rally in the S&P 500 is expected to expand beyond technology stocks, as \"the market will conduct a broader revaluation of technology stocks after the previous sharp gains have narrowed significantly.\" Regarding the logic that U.S. stocks will continue to rise in the future, David Kostin gave two logical supports. In addition to the strong upward momentum brought to U.S. stocks by the shrinking probability of economic recession, another reason is that the comprehensive popularization of AI provides important support for corporate profit growth.</p><p>As one of the most pessimistic analysts on Wall Street, Savita Subramanian, chief strategist of Bank of America, also changed his previous bearish statement on U.S. stocks, saying that the bear market that plagued U.S. stocks has officially ended, and there is still room for a continued rebound in the future. Savita Subramanian's analysis shows that data from the 1950s shows that 92% of the time, the S&P 500 has continued its upward momentum in 12 months after achieving a more than 20% rebound.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: If the Fed does not cut interest rates, U.S. stocks will be in trouble in the second half of this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: If the Fed does not cut interest rates, U.S. stocks will be in trouble in the second half of this year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-22 22:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Chief global market strategist Marko Kolanovic said U.S. stocks will struggle in the second half of the year as the lagging impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening catches up with economic growth.</p><p>Although the rebound in U.S. stocks so far this year is inconsistent with Marko Kolanovic's bearish forecast, he still reiterated his defensive view and warned that factors such as a deteriorating business environment and slowing consumer demand suggest that a recession is coming and may hinder U.S. stocks rebound this year.</p><p>Marko Kolanovic said in a note on Thursday: \"On the stock market front, the Fed has not preemptively shifted to easing policy, but hinted at two more rate hike by the end of the year. We expect U.S. stocks to face a more challenging macro backdrop in the second half of the year. While stocks are sharply revalued, consumer trends will soften.\" He warned that multiple expansions and weakening pricing power make the risk-reward of U.S. stocks unattractive. Another worrying factor, he added, is \"growing investor complacency\" ahead of a potential recession and \"in short, there is a high risk of another unknown risk resurfacing\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/465325619ef8760a38cb1ef975f06532\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"/></p><p>Differences of views on Wall Street on the outlook for U.S. stocks are intensifying. In addition to Marko Kolanovic, well-known bears on Wall Street,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategist Michael Wilson insisted on his bearish view on the U.S. stock market and further emphasized the view that the corporate earnings recession will continue in a recent report. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street since last year, also insisted on being bearish on U.S. stocks. He believes that the logic of the rise in U.S. stocks is untenable, and the recent \"fear of an economic recession in the first quarter\" is turning into \"greed for Goldilocks in the second quarter.\"</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin is optimistic about the future trend of U.S. stocks. David Kostin said this recent rally in the S&P 500 is expected to expand beyond technology stocks, as \"the market will conduct a broader revaluation of technology stocks after the previous sharp gains have narrowed significantly.\" Regarding the logic that U.S. stocks will continue to rise in the future, David Kostin gave two logical supports. In addition to the strong upward momentum brought to U.S. stocks by the shrinking probability of economic recession, another reason is that the comprehensive popularization of AI provides important support for corporate profit growth.</p><p>As one of the most pessimistic analysts on Wall Street, Savita Subramanian, chief strategist of Bank of America, also changed his previous bearish statement on U.S. stocks, saying that the bear market that plagued U.S. stocks has officially ended, and there is still room for a continued rebound in the future. Savita Subramanian's analysis shows that data from the 1950s shows that 92% of the time, the S&P 500 has continued its upward momentum in 12 months after achieving a more than 20% rebound.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/949520.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","JPM":"摩根大通","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4566":"资本集团","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/949520.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2345757673","content_text":"摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示，随着美联储激进收紧货币政策的滞后影响赶上经济增长，美国股市将在今年下半年陷入困境。尽管美股今年迄今为止的反弹与Marko Kolanovic的看跌预测并不一致，但他仍重申了其防御观点，并警告称，商业环境恶化和消费者需求放缓等因素表明，经济衰退即将到来，可能会阻碍美股今年的反弹。Marko Kolanovic周四在一份报告中表示：“在股市方面，美联储没有先发制人地转向宽松政策，而是暗示年底还会再加息两次。我们预计下半年美股将面临更具挑战性的宏观背景，在股市大幅重估的同时，消费趋势将趋软。”他警告称，多重扩张和定价能力的削弱使得美股的风险回报缺乏吸引力。他补充称，另一个令人担忧的因素是，在潜在的经济衰退到来之前，“投资者日益自满”，“简而言之，另一个未知的风险重新浮出水面的风险很高”。华尔街对美股前景的观点分歧正在加剧。除了Marko Kolanovic之外，华尔街知名空头、摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson坚持其看空美股大盘的观点，并在近期的报告中进一步强调企业盈利衰退将持续的观点。去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美银策略分析师Michael Hartnett也坚持看空美股。他认为，美股上涨的逻辑站不住，最近“对第一季度经济衰退的恐惧”正在转变为“对第二季度金发姑娘的贪婪”。不过，高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin则对美股未来走势持乐观态度。David Kostin表示，标普500指数近期的这一涨势预计将扩大到科技股以外，因为“之前大幅涨幅大幅收窄之后，市场将对科技股进行更广泛的估值重估”。对于美股后续仍将上涨的逻辑，David Kostin给出了两点逻辑支撑，除了经济衰退概率缩小给美股带来强劲的上涨动力之外，另一个理由是AI全面普及为企业利润增速提供重要支持。作为华尔街最悲观分析师之一的美国银行首席策略分析师Savita Subramanian也一改此前看空美股的说法，称困扰美股的熊市已经正式结束，未来还有继续反弹的空间。Savita Subramanian的分析显示，自1950年代以来的数据显示，在92%的时间里，标普500指数在实现超过20%的反弹后，在12个月内延续了上涨势头。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"JPM":1,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".DJI":1,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190248695894264,"gmtCreate":1687473161227,"gmtModify":1687473164766,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190248695894264","repostId":"2345500717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2345500717","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1687446683,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2345500717?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 23:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street can't sit still! New U.S. banking regulations may be tougher than expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2345500717","media":"金十数据","summary":"据六名知情人士透露，美国银行业正推动软化一项提高银行资本金要求的重大监管提案，担心该提案可能过于繁重，尤其是对仍未从3月银行业危机中恢复过来的银行而言。以美联储为首的银行监管机构正在敲定一项提案，该提","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. banking industry is pushing to soften a major regulatory proposal to raise bank capital requirements, according to six people familiar with the matter,<strong>Fears the proposal could be too onerous, especially for banks that still haven't recovered from the March banking crisis</strong>。</p><p>Banking regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, are finalizing a proposal that would implement international capital standards agreed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.</p><p>Of particular concern to bankers is a proposal in the draft that<strong>Higher capital charges on non-interest income</strong>。 Non-interest income, such as fees charged by banks for credit cards or investment banking services.</p><p>The request is part of a package agreement reached by the Basel Committee in 2017, people familiar with the matter said. But the industry said,<strong>This exaggerates the risks faced by banks with a high percentage of non-interest income</strong>, and hopes that U.S. regulators will relax requirements.</p><p>The banking industry is urging regulators to set a cap on the proportion of assets to which such charges apply, but it is unclear whether regulators will take such an approach, three people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>An industry insider pointed out that in recent years,<strong>Non-interest service income has been a focus of growth strategies for many banks.</strong></p><p>According to a 2022 blog from the Bank Policy Institute in Washington,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And UBS,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>And Barclays' U.S. subsidiary are both banks with a high proportion of non-interest income.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>And Morgan Stanley declined to comment. UBS and American Express were also not immediately available for comment.</p><p>On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that it is critical for banks to have strong capital, but regulators must be mindful of the trade-offs to avoid challenges to banks' operations.</p><p><h2><span><span>More severe than expected</span>Regulation Coming? Wall Street shivers!</span></h2>While the Basel Accord was agreed several years ago, it wasn't until after the banking crisis hit this year that the United States began to draft regulatory bills to comply with the agreement. During this crisis, a run on deposits led to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and two other banks.</p><p>The proposal is the first major rule led by Barr, the Fed's vice chairman for supervision. Barr has launched a full review of the capital rules and is expected to take drastic measures on Wall Street.</p><p>Isaac Boltansky, head of policy research at brokerage BTIG, said, \"The baseline assumptions have changed to the proposal's<strong>Will be far more tougher than anyone expected at the end of last year</strong>”。</p><p>Banking executives argue that bank failures are caused by mismanagement and liquidity problems, and that the whole system is fully capitalized.</p><p>Three sources said,<strong>The proposal is also expected to have stricter capital rules apply to smaller banks with more than $100 billion in assets, including some that have experienced liquidity problems this year.</strong></p><p>Raising capital requirements now could backfire, weighing on the banking sector and hurting credit conditions, given investor unease about the health of the sector and the economy in general, bankers said.</p><p>Two people familiar with the matter said that among regulators<strong>Republican officials have expressed similar concerns</strong>, Republican lawmakers also raised concerns about capital rules with Powell on Wednesday.</p><p>Kevin Fromer, chief executive of the Financial Services Forum, said it is \"extremely important for regulators to be mindful of economic costs during times of uncertainty\",<strong>\"It is not in the interest of the American economy to raise capital requirements for institutions that are already well-capitalized\".</strong>Members of the forum include eight of the nation's largest banks.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is working with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to draft new regulatory rules. The regulator had hoped to unveil the proposal this month, but staff is still working on a draft, five people familiar with the matter said,<strong>The schedule has been pushed back to late July</strong>。 Both the OCC and FDIC declined to comment.</p><p>Michael Hsu, acting U.S. currency controller, told reporters last week that banks are \"not shy to share their concerns\" and that regulators are weighing the risks.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street can't sit still! New U.S. banking regulations may be tougher than expected</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street can't sit still! New U.S. banking regulations may be tougher than expected\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-22 23:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. banking industry is pushing to soften a major regulatory proposal to raise bank capital requirements, according to six people familiar with the matter,<strong>Fears the proposal could be too onerous, especially for banks that still haven't recovered from the March banking crisis</strong>。</p><p>Banking regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, are finalizing a proposal that would implement international capital standards agreed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.</p><p>Of particular concern to bankers is a proposal in the draft that<strong>Higher capital charges on non-interest income</strong>。 Non-interest income, such as fees charged by banks for credit cards or investment banking services.</p><p>The request is part of a package agreement reached by the Basel Committee in 2017, people familiar with the matter said. But the industry said,<strong>This exaggerates the risks faced by banks with a high percentage of non-interest income</strong>, and hopes that U.S. regulators will relax requirements.</p><p>The banking industry is urging regulators to set a cap on the proportion of assets to which such charges apply, but it is unclear whether regulators will take such an approach, three people familiar with the matter said.</p><p>An industry insider pointed out that in recent years,<strong>Non-interest service income has been a focus of growth strategies for many banks.</strong></p><p>According to a 2022 blog from the Bank Policy Institute in Washington,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And UBS,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>And Barclays' U.S. subsidiary are both banks with a high proportion of non-interest income.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>And Morgan Stanley declined to comment. UBS and American Express were also not immediately available for comment.</p><p>On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that it is critical for banks to have strong capital, but regulators must be mindful of the trade-offs to avoid challenges to banks' operations.</p><p><h2><span><span>More severe than expected</span>Regulation Coming? Wall Street shivers!</span></h2>While the Basel Accord was agreed several years ago, it wasn't until after the banking crisis hit this year that the United States began to draft regulatory bills to comply with the agreement. During this crisis, a run on deposits led to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and two other banks.</p><p>The proposal is the first major rule led by Barr, the Fed's vice chairman for supervision. Barr has launched a full review of the capital rules and is expected to take drastic measures on Wall Street.</p><p>Isaac Boltansky, head of policy research at brokerage BTIG, said, \"The baseline assumptions have changed to the proposal's<strong>Will be far more tougher than anyone expected at the end of last year</strong>”。</p><p>Banking executives argue that bank failures are caused by mismanagement and liquidity problems, and that the whole system is fully capitalized.</p><p>Three sources said,<strong>The proposal is also expected to have stricter capital rules apply to smaller banks with more than $100 billion in assets, including some that have experienced liquidity problems this year.</strong></p><p>Raising capital requirements now could backfire, weighing on the banking sector and hurting credit conditions, given investor unease about the health of the sector and the economy in general, bankers said.</p><p>Two people familiar with the matter said that among regulators<strong>Republican officials have expressed similar concerns</strong>, Republican lawmakers also raised concerns about capital rules with Powell on Wednesday.</p><p>Kevin Fromer, chief executive of the Financial Services Forum, said it is \"extremely important for regulators to be mindful of economic costs during times of uncertainty\",<strong>\"It is not in the interest of the American economy to raise capital requirements for institutions that are already well-capitalized\".</strong>Members of the forum include eight of the nation's largest banks.</p><p>The Federal Reserve is working with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to draft new regulatory rules. The regulator had hoped to unveil the proposal this month, but staff is still working on a draft, five people familiar with the matter said,<strong>The schedule has been pushed back to late July</strong>。 Both the OCC and FDIC declined to comment.</p><p>Michael Hsu, acting U.S. currency controller, told reporters last week that banks are \"not shy to share their concerns\" and that regulators are weighing the risks.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115509&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f4bf2aa1b8831fa8d83e8683b5b2b6","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4588":"碎股","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OCC":"Optical Cable Corporation","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4020":"通信设备","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115509&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2345500717","content_text":"据六名知情人士透露，美国银行业正推动软化一项提高银行资本金要求的重大监管提案，担心该提案可能过于繁重，尤其是对仍未从3月银行业危机中恢复过来的银行而言。以美联储为首的银行监管机构正在敲定一项提案，该提案将实施巴塞尔银行监管委员会在2007-2009年金融危机后达成的国际资本标准。银行家们尤其担心的是草案中的一项提议，即对非利息收入征收更高的资本费用。非利息收入比如银行对信用卡或投资银行服务收取的费用。知情人士称，这项要求是巴塞尔委员会于2017年达成的一揽子协议的一部分。但业内表示，这夸大了非利息收入占比较高的银行面临的风险，并希望美国监管机构能放松要求。三位知情人士表示，银行业正敦促监管机构对此类收费适用的资产比例设定上限，但尚不清楚监管机构是否会采取这种做法。一位业内人士指出，近年来，非利息服务收入一直是许多银行增长战略的重点。根据华盛顿银行政策研究所2022年的一篇博客，美国运通、摩根士丹利以及瑞银、德意志银行和巴克莱的美国子公司均属于非利息收入占比很高的银行。巴克莱银行、德意志银行和摩根士丹利拒绝就此事置评。瑞银和美国运通也没有立即发表评论。周三，美联储主席鲍威尔告诉国会，银行拥有雄厚的资本至关重要，但监管机构必须注意权衡，以避免银行的业务受到挑战。超预期严厉的监管要来了？华尔街瑟瑟发抖！虽然巴塞尔协议早在几年前就已达成，但直到今年银行业危机爆发后，美国才开始起草监管法案以遵守该协议。在这场危机中，存款挤兑导致硅谷银行和另外两家银行倒闭。该提案是美联储负责监管的副主席巴尔牵头制定的首条重大规则。巴尔已启动了对资本规则的全面评估，预计将对华尔街采取严厉措施。经纪公司BTIG政策研究主管艾萨克•博尔坦斯基（Isaac Boltansky）表示，“基准假设已经转变为，该提案的强硬程度将远远超出去年年底时任何人的预期”。银行业高管辨称，银行倒闭是由管理不善和流动性问题造成的，而且整个系统的资本已经充足。三名消息人士称，该提案预计还将让更严格的资本规则适用于资产超过1000亿美元的小型银行，其中包括一些今年遇到流动性问题的银行。银行家表示，鉴于投资者对该行业和整体经济的健康状况感到不安，现在增加资本金要求可能会适得其反，给银行业带来压力并损害信贷状况。两位知情人士说，监管机构中的共和党官员也表达了类似的担忧，周三共和党议员同样向鲍威尔提出了对资本规则的担忧。金融服务论坛首席执行官凯文·弗罗默（Kevin Fromer）表示，“在充满不确定性的时期，各监管机构要注意经济成本，这一点极其重要”，“对已经资本充足的机构提高资本金要求，不符合美国经济的利益”。该论坛的成员包括美国最大的八家银行。美联储正在与货币监理署（OCC）和联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）一起起草监管新规。五位知情人士表示，监管机构原本希望本月公布该提案，但工作人员仍在起草草案，时间表已推迟到7月下旬。OCC和FDIC都拒绝置评。美国货币代理主计长迈克尔·许（Michael Hsu）上周对记者表示，银行“并不羞于分享他们的担忧”，监管机构正在权衡风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OCC":1,"DXD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,".IXIC":0.65,"QLD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":0.65,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":0.65,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190248901304496,"gmtCreate":1687473141791,"gmtModify":1687473145111,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190248901304496","repostId":"1194491376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194491376","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687447307,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194491376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 23:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"'Fed mouthpiece': Powell highlights likely to raise rates again in the coming months","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194491376","media":"新浪财经","summary":"“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos撰文称，鲍威尔今日表示上周之所以没有提高利率，是因为美联储想要减缓其有史以来最快的加息步伐。但他强调，在未来几个月内可能会再次提高利率，且美联储内部绝大多数成","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"Fed mouthpiece\" Nick Timiraos wrote that Powell said today that the reason why he did not raise interest rates last week was because the Fed wanted to slow down its fastest pace of rate hike in history.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But he stressed that interest rates may be raised again in the coming months, and the vast majority of members of the Fed believe that there is still room for interest rate hikes.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Fed officials now believe that their past rate hike practices, coupled with recent pressures on the banking industry, may ultimately cause a more severe economic slowdown than expected, and they are trying to balance this risk. At the same time, they also face the risk that the economy may be more resilient than expected, and that inflation is too high to require them to raise interest rates higher than previously expected.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Fed mouthpiece': Powell highlights likely to raise rates again in the coming months</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Fed mouthpiece': Powell highlights likely to raise rates again in the coming months\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-22 23:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"Fed mouthpiece\" Nick Timiraos wrote that Powell said today that the reason why he did not raise interest rates last week was because the Fed wanted to slow down its fastest pace of rate hike in history.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But he stressed that interest rates may be raised again in the coming months, and the vast majority of members of the Fed believe that there is still room for interest rate hikes.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Fed officials now believe that their past rate hike practices, coupled with recent pressures on the banking industry, may ultimately cause a more severe economic slowdown than expected, and they are trying to balance this risk. At the same time, they also face the risk that the economy may be more resilient than expected, and that inflation is too high to require them to raise interest rates higher than previously expected.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-06-22/doc-imyyevmm0024657.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-06-22/doc-imyyevmm0024657.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194491376","content_text":"“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos撰文称，鲍威尔今日表示上周之所以没有提高利率，是因为美联储想要减缓其有史以来最快的加息步伐。但他强调，在未来几个月内可能会再次提高利率，且美联储内部绝大多数成员都认为利率仍有上调空间。美联储官员目前认为，他们过去加息的做法，加上最近银行业面临的压力，最终可能造成比预期更为严重的经济放缓，他们试图平衡这一风险。同时他们还面临经济可能比预期更具有弹性，以及通胀率过高需要他们将利率提高得比之前预期更高所带来的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190249367875712,"gmtCreate":1687473122351,"gmtModify":1687473125887,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190249367875712","repostId":"1133142033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133142033","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1687447997,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133142033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-22 23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"At the expense of destroying jobs? Powell: Two more rate hike is appropriate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133142033","media":"金十数据","summary":"尽管议员质疑美联储抗通胀可能破坏就业，但鲍威尔极力为进一步紧缩的立场辩护，此前又一鹰派现身支持.......周四，美联储主席鲍威尔出席众议院金融服务委员会听证会，发言稿与周三的证词一模一样。在问答环节","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>While lawmakers question that the Fed's inflation fight could destroy jobs, Powell vigorously defended further tightening after another hawk showed up in support.......</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attended a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, and his speech was exactly the same as Wednesday's testimony. In the question-and-answer session,<strong>Powell defended the need for further rate hike, despite the possible impact on jobs.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat and chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, questioned that the Fed's efforts to control inflation may lead to disproportionate job losses for racial and ethnic minorities. \"Where I live, what the Fed calls'calming the average person is laying off staff '.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Powell said that working families will be most directly and quickly affected by inflation. But he added that Fed officials currently believe that \"if the economy performs as expected,<strong>It would be appropriate to rate hike again this year and perhaps rate hike twice</strong>。”</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to it, the Committee<strong>The vast majority of people think there is still a little room for interest rates to rise</strong>。 Although inflation has declined, it is mainly due to the decline of energy and food prices, rather than monetary policy. He expects the unemployment rate to rise a little further, helping to slow inflation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lawmakers also questioned Powell on banking issues. He acknowledged that the Fed needs to strengthen its regulatory and supervisory practices,<strong>May raise capital requirements for large banks by 20%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier that day, Fed Governor Bowman said the Fed needed to raise interest rates further to reduce inflation, meaning she joined the ranks of hawks,<strong>Hoping to resume rate hike in due course after holding interest rates unchanged last week.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In remarks prepared for the Fed Listen event in Cleveland on Thursday, Bowman said:</p><p><strong>\"I support the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision last week to keep the Federal Funds rate target range unchanged and continue to reduce Fed securities holdings. However, I believe that further policy rate increases are necessary over time to bring inflation down to target levels.\"</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bowman reiterated Powell's message on Capitol Hill this week. Speaking before the House Finance Committee on Wednesday, he said policymakers expect the need to continue raising interest rates to slow U.S. economic growth and curb price pressures.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Now, Fed officials are beginning to decide on the best way to cool inflation<strong>Create more divisions</strong>。 While inflation is slowing, it remains above the Fed's 2% target.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Wednesday that he supports keeping interest rates steady for the rest of the year, giving inflation time to react to past rate hike actions. Bowman recently said that further increases in borrowing costs may be needed to reduce core inflation, which has remained high. She said:</p><p><strong>\"Although tight monetary policy has had some impact on economic activity and inflation so far, we have seen core inflation largely plateau since the fall of 2022. I expect that we will need to raise interest rates further to achieve sufficiently stringent monetary policy stance to effectively and durably reduce inflation.\"</strong></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>At the expense of destroying jobs? Powell: Two more rate hike is appropriate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAt the expense of destroying jobs? Powell: Two more rate hike is appropriate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-22 23:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>While lawmakers question that the Fed's inflation fight could destroy jobs, Powell vigorously defended further tightening after another hawk showed up in support.......</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attended a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, and his speech was exactly the same as Wednesday's testimony. In the question-and-answer session,<strong>Powell defended the need for further rate hike, despite the possible impact on jobs.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat and chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, questioned that the Fed's efforts to control inflation may lead to disproportionate job losses for racial and ethnic minorities. \"Where I live, what the Fed calls'calming the average person is laying off staff '.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Powell said that working families will be most directly and quickly affected by inflation. But he added that Fed officials currently believe that \"if the economy performs as expected,<strong>It would be appropriate to rate hike again this year and perhaps rate hike twice</strong>。”</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to it, the Committee<strong>The vast majority of people think there is still a little room for interest rates to rise</strong>。 Although inflation has declined, it is mainly due to the decline of energy and food prices, rather than monetary policy. He expects the unemployment rate to rise a little further, helping to slow inflation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lawmakers also questioned Powell on banking issues. He acknowledged that the Fed needs to strengthen its regulatory and supervisory practices,<strong>May raise capital requirements for large banks by 20%.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier that day, Fed Governor Bowman said the Fed needed to raise interest rates further to reduce inflation, meaning she joined the ranks of hawks,<strong>Hoping to resume rate hike in due course after holding interest rates unchanged last week.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In remarks prepared for the Fed Listen event in Cleveland on Thursday, Bowman said:</p><p><strong>\"I support the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision last week to keep the Federal Funds rate target range unchanged and continue to reduce Fed securities holdings. However, I believe that further policy rate increases are necessary over time to bring inflation down to target levels.\"</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bowman reiterated Powell's message on Capitol Hill this week. Speaking before the House Finance Committee on Wednesday, he said policymakers expect the need to continue raising interest rates to slow U.S. economic growth and curb price pressures.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Now, Fed officials are beginning to decide on the best way to cool inflation<strong>Create more divisions</strong>。 While inflation is slowing, it remains above the Fed's 2% target.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Wednesday that he supports keeping interest rates steady for the rest of the year, giving inflation time to react to past rate hike actions. Bowman recently said that further increases in borrowing costs may be needed to reduce core inflation, which has remained high. She said:</p><p><strong>\"Although tight monetary policy has had some impact on economic activity and inflation so far, we have seen core inflation largely plateau since the fall of 2022. I expect that we will need to raise interest rates further to achieve sufficiently stringent monetary policy stance to effectively and durably reduce inflation.\"</strong></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/115510\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/115510","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133142033","content_text":"尽管议员质疑美联储抗通胀可能破坏就业，但鲍威尔极力为进一步紧缩的立场辩护，此前又一鹰派现身支持.......周四，美联储主席鲍威尔出席众议院金融服务委员会听证会，发言稿与周三的证词一模一样。在问答环节，鲍威尔为进一步加息的必要性进行了辩护，尽管这可能对就业产生影响。俄亥俄州民主党参议员、参议院银行委员会主席谢罗德·布朗则质疑道，美联储控制通胀的努力有可能导致少数种族和少数族裔不成比例地失去工作机会。“在我居住的地方，美联储所说的‘让普通人冷静下来就是裁员’。鲍威尔对此表示，工薪家庭将最直接、最迅速地受到通胀的影响。但他补充说，美联储官员目前认为，“如果经济表现如预期，今年再次加息将是合适的，或许还会加息两次。”据其称，委员会中绝大多数人认为利率还有一点上升空间。虽然通胀出现下降，但主要是由于能源和食品价格出现了下降，而非货币政策（起了作用）。他预计失业率将会进一步上升一点，从而帮助减缓通胀。立法者还就银行业问题向鲍威尔提出质询。他承认，美联储需要加强其监管和监督实践，可能将对大型银行的资本要求提高20%。同日早些时候，美联储理事鲍曼表示，美联储需要进一步提高利率以降低通胀，这意味着她加入了鹰派的行列，希望在上周维持利率不变后适时恢复加息。鲍曼周四在为克利夫兰举行的美联储聆听活动准备的讲话中表示：“我支持联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上周保持联邦基金利率目标区间不变、并继续削减美联储证券持有量的决定，然而，我认为，随着时间的推移，有必要进一步上调政策利率，以将通胀降至目标水平。”鲍曼重申了鲍威尔本周在国会山传达的信息。他周三在众议院金融委员会发表讲话时表示，政策制定者预计需要继续提高利率，以减缓美国经济增长并遏制价格压力。 当前，美联储官员们开始在冷却通胀的最佳途径上产生更多分歧。虽然通胀正在放缓，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长博斯蒂克周三表示，他支持在今年剩余时间内保持利率稳定，让通胀有时间对过去的加息行动做出反应。而鲍曼最新表示，可能需要进一步提高借贷成本来降低核心通胀，该指标一直居高不下。她说：“尽管迄今为止，紧缩的货币政策对经济活动和通胀产生了一些影响，但我们看到核心通胀自2022年秋季以来基本处于平稳状态。我预计，我们将需要进一步提高利率，以实现足够严格的货币政策立场，从而有效而持久地降低通胀。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188140677566728,"gmtCreate":1686958515526,"gmtModify":1686958519289,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188140677566728","repostId":"2343195366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2343195366","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1686924939,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2343195366?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-16 22:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It takes another 1% rate hike to make U.S. stocks fall! Wells Fargo: AI giants will usher in an \"Internet era-style\" boom","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2343195366","media":"智通财经网","summary":"富国银行称，除非美联储再至少加息一个百分点，否则整体美股市场仍有上涨空间，可能出现类似于互联网泡沫时代的飙升。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>He said that unless the Federal Reserve rate hike by at least one percentage point, the overall U.S. stock market still has room to rise, and there may be a surge similar to that in the Internet bubble era.</p><p>Wells Fargo strategist Chris Harvey wrote in a note on Friday: \"After the S&P 500 not only broke our year-end target of 4,200, but also broke our'soft landing 'target of 4,420, we are thinking about the 1999/2000 playbook. That means looking for the inflection point of events, and that event is a recession.\"</p><p>Harvey said: \"We think the Fed's rate hike pause will move hyperscale AI companies to the'next level '. If 1999/2000 is any reference, 'new economy stocks' won't recession until the economy and'old economy stocks' recession, and this may not happen until the Fed raises interest rates above 6%.\"</p><p>Harvey added: \"We believe the Fed's actions have supported a modest rebound in super-large-cap stocks, which are not outrageously valued compared to the S&P 500 (and compared to 1999). However, recent overbought technicals suggest that super-large-cap stocks will pause their gains/pullbacks, while small-and mid-cap stocks will catch up.\"</p><p>Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 16% this year. Among the ultra-large-scale AI beneficiaries,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Shares are up nearly 200% over the same period.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up nearly 50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 45%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet rose 40%; At the same time, other tech giants followed suit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>Rose by more than 125%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It's up more than 135%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It takes another 1% rate hike to make U.S. stocks fall! Wells Fargo: AI giants will usher in an \"Internet era-style\" boom</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt takes another 1% rate hike to make U.S. stocks fall! Wells Fargo: AI giants will usher in an \"Internet era-style\" boom\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-16 22:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>He said that unless the Federal Reserve rate hike by at least one percentage point, the overall U.S. stock market still has room to rise, and there may be a surge similar to that in the Internet bubble era.</p><p>Wells Fargo strategist Chris Harvey wrote in a note on Friday: \"After the S&P 500 not only broke our year-end target of 4,200, but also broke our'soft landing 'target of 4,420, we are thinking about the 1999/2000 playbook. That means looking for the inflection point of events, and that event is a recession.\"</p><p>Harvey said: \"We think the Fed's rate hike pause will move hyperscale AI companies to the'next level '. If 1999/2000 is any reference, 'new economy stocks' won't recession until the economy and'old economy stocks' recession, and this may not happen until the Fed raises interest rates above 6%.\"</p><p>Harvey added: \"We believe the Fed's actions have supported a modest rebound in super-large-cap stocks, which are not outrageously valued compared to the S&P 500 (and compared to 1999). However, recent overbought technicals suggest that super-large-cap stocks will pause their gains/pullbacks, while small-and mid-cap stocks will catch up.\"</p><p>Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 16% this year. Among the ultra-large-scale AI beneficiaries,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Shares are up nearly 200% over the same period.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up nearly 50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 45%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet rose 40%; At the same time, other tech giants followed suit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>Rose by more than 125%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It's up more than 135%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/947227.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"BK4576":"AR","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4514":"搜索引擎","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4588":"碎股","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/947227.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2343195366","content_text":"富国银行称，除非美联储再至少加息一个百分点，否则整体美股市场仍有上涨空间，可能出现类似于互联网泡沫时代的飙升。富国银行策略师Chris Harvey在周五的一份报告中写道:“在标普500指数不仅突破了我们设定的4200点年终目标，而且还突破了我们设定的4420点的‘软着陆’目标(可能性为20%)之后，我们正在想到了1999/2000年的剧本。这意味着寻找事件拐点，那个事件就是经济衰退。”Harvey表示:“我们认为美联储暂停加息将让超大规模的AI公司进入‘下一个水平’。如果1999/2000年的情况可以作为参考的话，‘新经济股票’不会衰退，直到经济和‘旧经济股票’衰退，而这可能要等到美联储将利率提高到6%以上才会发生。”Harvey补充称：“我们认为，美联储的行动支持了超级大盘股的适中反弹，与标普500指数(以及与1999年相比)相比，它们的估值并不离谱。不过，近期超买技术面暗示超级大盘股将暂停上涨/回调，而中小盘股将迎头赶上。”今年迄今，标普500指数今年上涨了16%。在超大规模的AI受益者中，英伟达股价同期上涨了近200%。苹果上涨近50%，微软上涨45%，谷歌母公司Alphabet上涨40%;与此同时，其他科技巨头也跟着上涨，亚马逊上涨了48%，Meta上涨了125%以上，特斯拉上涨了135%以上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.6,"GOOGL":0.65,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188141469691912,"gmtCreate":1686958496624,"gmtModify":1686958500149,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188141469691912","repostId":"1176607777","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176607777","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"欢迎收听雷帝触网，雷帝触网是中国最多产的互联网科技自媒体，内容中立，快、准、狠，其由资深媒体人雷建平创办，雷建平是今日头条签约作家，也入驻了一点资讯、搜狐、网易等平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"雷递","id":"52","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45a6cbcc8ec48a7a2f52177324d0c16"},"pubTimestamp":1686926256,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176607777?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-16 22:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Jitu sprints to Hong Kong stocks: annual revenue of US $7.3 billion, founder Li Jie has a relationship with Duan Yongping","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176607777","media":"雷递","summary":"极兔正成为中国快递行业的“黑马”。今日晚间，极兔递交招股书，准备在港交所上市。一旦上市，极兔将成继顺丰、京东物流、中通、申通、圆通及百世后，又一家上市的物流企业。年营收73亿美元极兔由OPPO印尼业务","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Jitu is becoming a \"dark horse\" in China's express delivery industry. This evening, Jitu submitted a prospectus and prepared to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once listed, Jitu will become another listed logistics company after SF Express, JD Logistics, ZTO, Shentong, YTO and Best.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd73f21f46a1282f0e4329c9dbdcf3a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"661\"/></p><p><strong>Annual revenue of $7.3 billion</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653b1ab95aedfd5f4eab3ca73c30a868\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"595\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jitu was founded in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, in 2015 by Li Jie, founder of OPPO's Indonesian business. In 2019, Jitu became the second largest express delivery company in Southeast Asia. In the same year, Jitu acquired Shanghai Longbang Express and directly obtained express delivery business qualifications and express delivery in China. network.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a769053435e4f4770862f227b758156d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the prospectus, Jitu's revenue in 2020, 2021, and 2022 will be US $1.535 billion, US $4.852 billion, and US $7.267 billion, respectively; The profits during the period were-664 million US dollars,-6.192 billion US dollars, and 1.573 billion US dollars, respectively.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6156c10acac896cb1544a492e2a83dc1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1191\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jitu's adjusted EBITDA in 2020, 2021, and 2022 will be-321 million US dollars,-528 million US dollars, and-204 million US dollars, respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Specifically, Jitu's adjusted EBITDA from Southeast Asia in 2020, 2021, and 2022 will be US $267 million, US $427 million, and US $332 million, respectively; The Chinese market is still in the investment period and in a state of loss, which are-616 million US dollars,-940 million US dollars, and-335 million US dollars respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The younger generation in the industry has gained momentum</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The original structure of the domestic express delivery industry was three links and one delivery, plus SF Express and JD Express, but Jitu gained momentum in the country in a very short time. In just 10 months, Jitu's daily order volume exceeded 20 million. To achieve this goal, it took 16 years for China General Motors, 18 years for Yuan General Motors, 19 years for Yunda Yong, and 25 years for Shen General Motors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By June 2022, it will be reported at the Jitu major customer meeting that the average daily business volume of the entire network has exceeded and stabilized at more than 40 million pieces, ranking among the first echelon of domestic express delivery companies.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Jitu has occupied such a large market share so quickly, and there are several axes:</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. Relying on the original network system of OPPO and Vivo, it has risen rapidly.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There are rumors on the Internet that an important reason for Jitu's early rise is to instigate express franchisees and talk about money rather than feelings. In the past few years, China's express delivery industry has been engaged in price wars year after year, which has continued to reduce the cost of express delivery by franchisees, and franchisees have complained.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this time, Jitu was born, and by giving higher delivery fees, the franchisees of the \"Tongda Department\" were used by Jitu. In 2020, Jitu was once \"blocked\" by its peers. On April 6, 2021, the Yiwu Postal Administration even issued a warning letter to Jitu, pointing out its \"low-price dumping\" behavior.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">People familiar with Jitu told Leidi.com that Jitu did not attract foreign investment in the early days, and it is still very popular. The reason is that Jitu relies on the original network system of OPPO and Vivo. There are a group of people who are willing to spend real money to follow suit when Jitu returns to China for development. They recognize the commercial and cultural value of Jitu and feel that Jitu will definitely be able to Success, this is the core reason supporting the early development of Jitu.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2. Continue to make large-scale acquisitions. Although it is new to the Chinese market, Jitu is not soft. In October 2021, Best and Jitu jointly announced a strategic cooperation intention. Best Group transferred its domestic express delivery business to Jitu at a price of approximately 6.8 billion yuan (US $1.1 billion).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Best sold its domestic express delivery business out of helplessness. Against the background of the continuous price war in the express delivery industry, Best struggled to survive in China and has become the worst express delivery company in the industry. From 2019 to the second quarter of 2021, the order volume of Best Express was 1.907 billion, 2.275 billion, and 2.301 billion, respectively. Although it is growing, its market share is 12.2%, 10.7%, and 8.4%, respectively, declining all the way.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, a little value of Baishi is valued by Jitu-Baishi is the main express delivery service provider of Taobao. At that time, Zhou Shaoning, the founder of Best, held 47,790,698 Class C shares with 46.4% of the voting rights; Alibaba holds 48,900,357 Class A shares and 94,075,249 Class B shares, with 46.7% voting rights. In other words, Ali's voice is even greater than Zhou Shaoning's.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jitu swallowed Baishi, and it has a foothold in China, officially joining the e-commerce express delivery camp. Industry insiders believe that \"Best's terminal outlets, executives, and major customer resources have allowed Jitu to really sit on the poker table.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The pace of Jitu's acquisition has not stopped. In May 2023, SF Holdings transferred its business Fengwang Holdings to Jitu at a price of 1.183 billion yuan. Fengwang Information's revenue in 2022 will be 3.275 billion yuan, and its net loss will be 747 million yuan; In the first quarter of 2023, the revenue was 691 million yuan, and the net loss was 143 million yuan.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jitu can be said to spend money to make friends. Today, more than 30 e-commerce platforms such as Taobao, Kuaishou, Douyin, and Dangdang have reached cooperation with Jitu, and Fengwang covers 27 provinces and cities across the country, with 1,671 franchise outlets. All return to Jitu in the future.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. The founder has a deep background in BBK</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Li Jie, the founder of Jitu, is an old subordinate of Chen Mingyong, the helm of OPPO, for many years, and a natural sales talent.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the data, Li Jie was born in Sichuan in 1967 and graduated from University of Science and Technology Beijing. After graduation, he worked in sales under the agent system of BBK. Because of his outstanding performance, he was poached by BBK.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There are rumors on the Internet that Duan Yongping appreciated Li Jie very much and brought Li Jie to BBK. The actual situation is that Chen Mingyong appreciates him very much and entrusts Li Jie with an important task. Since then, BBK has hatched OPPO, Vivo and Little Genius. Chen Mingyong has taken the helm of OPPO and brought Li Jie to OPPO.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Li Jie is very prominent in OPPO's sales business. After that, OPPO wanted to expand its business in Indonesia. Li Jie volunteered to go to Indonesia to open up the market when he couldn't even speak English or Indonesian. By 2020, OPPO's market share in Indonesia will reach 27.4%, surpassing Samsung.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As Chen Mingyong is a disciple of Duan Yongping, it can be said that Li Jie and Duan Yongping have a deep relationship, and they are also outstanding entrepreneurs who rely on BBK's cultural concept, marketing and strategic ability. However, in the early days when Jitu returned to China to start a business, Li Jie and Duan Yongping did not have much intersection.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Behind-the-scenes boss Duan Yongping and his Chinese disciples</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping graduated from the Radio Department of Zhejiang University in 1982. After graduation, he joined a state-owned enterprise. However, Duan Yongping, who was tired of life day after day, then chose to study for a master's degree in economics at the National People's Congress. After that, Duan Yongping went south to work in a small electronics factory and became the factory director in less than a year. Duan Yongping found great business opportunities in this process, and the Xiaobawang game console was born.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping not only turned Xiaobawang from a mess with an annual loss of 2 million yuan into a household name game console brand. Xiaobawang also hired Jackie Chan, a martial arts superstar, as his spokesperson, and the slogan \"Looking for Jackie Chan Xiaobawang\" was a household name at that time.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Duan Yongping's proposal to reform the shareholding system was rejected by the major shareholders. Since then, Duan Yongping has left, founded BBK, and created a business miracle. At the peak of his career, Duan Yongping fell in love with his junior sister Liu Xin. Under Duan Yongping's constant pursuit, Liu Xin was shaken.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Liu Xin suggested to Duan Yongping that as long as Duan Yongping dared to give up everything in China and live with himself in the United States, he would be willing to join hands with him all his life. In the face of career and love, Duan Yongping doesn't love Jiangshan and loves beauty. Duan Yongping decided to hand over all domestic industries to his friends and follow Liu Xin to live in the United States.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since then, Duan Yongping has split BBK into three companies. Two of them are OPPO, which is in charge of Chen Mingyong, and vivo, which is in charge of Shen Wei. Jin Zhijiang later took over BBK and became the father of \"little genius\". The three of them, plus Huang Zheng, the founder of Pinduoduo, are known as Duan Yongping's \"four disciples\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At that time, Duan Yongping instructed Huang Zheng to join Google, which was not listed at that time, instead of Microsoft, which was in full swing. Duan Yongping said at the time, \"Google seems to be a great company, and it is worth visiting. It's also good for your future business. If you go, stay for at least three years, because you can't really enter an important position and really get to know this company in a year or two.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2006, Duan Yongping photographed the lunch of \"stock god\" Buffett for $620,000. As the first Chinese to do so, Huang Zheng was among the people he brought there.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198411c20eea7835d410777e415e8387\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Huang Zheng worked in Google for 3 years, followed Google to go public, and soon became worth of millions of dollars. In 2007, Huang Zheng spent three years at Google and decided to return to China to start a business. Duan Yongping is also the chairman of BBK, so he handed over one of the e-commerce businesses to him. Soon, Ouku.com, led by Huang Zheng, went online and was controlled by BBK. Since then, Duan Yongping has given Huang Zheng more or less guidance or help at all stages of Huang Zheng's entrepreneurship.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Huang Zheng once said, \"Lao Duan has a great influence on me. Chen Mingyong is the big apprentice, Shen Wei is the second apprentice, Jin Zhijiang is the third apprentice, and I am the fourth apprentice of the next generation.\" The three \"senior brothers\" Chen Yongming, Shen Wei and Jin Zhijiang are the founders of OPPO, the founders of Vivo and the CEO of BBK respectively. The investment of the first company that Huang Zheng returned to China to start a business also came from Duan Yongping.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping once said: Huang Zheng and I have been friends for more than 10 years. I know him and believe him. Huang Zheng is a rare and savvy person I know. He pays attention to the essence of things.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the development of Pinduoduo, Duan Yongping also gave support. Duan Yongping is also an angel investor in Pinduoduo. Investing in Pinduoduo also made Duan Yongping get huge returns.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nowadays, although Duan Yongping is not in China, the story of Duan Yongping will always be circulated in the Jianghu.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9edac35a59ad49044b51cb57cc6c470\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"597\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Recently, OPPO did not design chips, saying that in the face of the uncertainty of the global economy and mobile phone market, after careful consideration, the company decided to terminate the ZEKU business. OPPO said it was a difficult decision.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Behind this decision, there is also the shadow of Duan Yongping.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping commented on the Internet that among all the businesses that have stopped voluntarily in recent years, the only one that felt a survival crisis was that BBK sold the first batch of VCDs. At that time, there was a problem with the Sanyo movement used in the product, and BBK subsequently recalled all the 200,000 machines sold. \"That time was really uncomfortable\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping pointed out, \"The sooner you correct your mistakes, the better. No matter how big the cost is, it is the smallest cost! This is not the first business we shut down, and it will never be the last. If anyone asks us why we shut down these businesses, I will have to black them out directly.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jitu sprints to Hong Kong stocks: annual revenue of US $7.3 billion, founder Li Jie has a relationship with Duan Yongping</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJitu sprints to Hong Kong stocks: annual revenue of US $7.3 billion, founder Li Jie has a relationship with Duan Yongping\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/52\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45a6cbcc8ec48a7a2f52177324d0c16);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">雷递 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-06-16 22:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Jitu is becoming a \"dark horse\" in China's express delivery industry. This evening, Jitu submitted a prospectus and prepared to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once listed, Jitu will become another listed logistics company after SF Express, JD Logistics, ZTO, Shentong, YTO and Best.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd73f21f46a1282f0e4329c9dbdcf3a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"661\"/></p><p><strong>Annual revenue of $7.3 billion</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653b1ab95aedfd5f4eab3ca73c30a868\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"595\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jitu was founded in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, in 2015 by Li Jie, founder of OPPO's Indonesian business. In 2019, Jitu became the second largest express delivery company in Southeast Asia. In the same year, Jitu acquired Shanghai Longbang Express and directly obtained express delivery business qualifications and express delivery in China. network.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a769053435e4f4770862f227b758156d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the prospectus, Jitu's revenue in 2020, 2021, and 2022 will be US $1.535 billion, US $4.852 billion, and US $7.267 billion, respectively; The profits during the period were-664 million US dollars,-6.192 billion US dollars, and 1.573 billion US dollars, respectively.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6156c10acac896cb1544a492e2a83dc1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1191\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jitu's adjusted EBITDA in 2020, 2021, and 2022 will be-321 million US dollars,-528 million US dollars, and-204 million US dollars, respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Specifically, Jitu's adjusted EBITDA from Southeast Asia in 2020, 2021, and 2022 will be US $267 million, US $427 million, and US $332 million, respectively; The Chinese market is still in the investment period and in a state of loss, which are-616 million US dollars,-940 million US dollars, and-335 million US dollars respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The younger generation in the industry has gained momentum</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The original structure of the domestic express delivery industry was three links and one delivery, plus SF Express and JD Express, but Jitu gained momentum in the country in a very short time. In just 10 months, Jitu's daily order volume exceeded 20 million. To achieve this goal, it took 16 years for China General Motors, 18 years for Yuan General Motors, 19 years for Yunda Yong, and 25 years for Shen General Motors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By June 2022, it will be reported at the Jitu major customer meeting that the average daily business volume of the entire network has exceeded and stabilized at more than 40 million pieces, ranking among the first echelon of domestic express delivery companies.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Jitu has occupied such a large market share so quickly, and there are several axes:</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. Relying on the original network system of OPPO and Vivo, it has risen rapidly.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There are rumors on the Internet that an important reason for Jitu's early rise is to instigate express franchisees and talk about money rather than feelings. In the past few years, China's express delivery industry has been engaged in price wars year after year, which has continued to reduce the cost of express delivery by franchisees, and franchisees have complained.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this time, Jitu was born, and by giving higher delivery fees, the franchisees of the \"Tongda Department\" were used by Jitu. In 2020, Jitu was once \"blocked\" by its peers. On April 6, 2021, the Yiwu Postal Administration even issued a warning letter to Jitu, pointing out its \"low-price dumping\" behavior.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">People familiar with Jitu told Leidi.com that Jitu did not attract foreign investment in the early days, and it is still very popular. The reason is that Jitu relies on the original network system of OPPO and Vivo. There are a group of people who are willing to spend real money to follow suit when Jitu returns to China for development. They recognize the commercial and cultural value of Jitu and feel that Jitu will definitely be able to Success, this is the core reason supporting the early development of Jitu.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2. Continue to make large-scale acquisitions. Although it is new to the Chinese market, Jitu is not soft. In October 2021, Best and Jitu jointly announced a strategic cooperation intention. Best Group transferred its domestic express delivery business to Jitu at a price of approximately 6.8 billion yuan (US $1.1 billion).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Best sold its domestic express delivery business out of helplessness. Against the background of the continuous price war in the express delivery industry, Best struggled to survive in China and has become the worst express delivery company in the industry. From 2019 to the second quarter of 2021, the order volume of Best Express was 1.907 billion, 2.275 billion, and 2.301 billion, respectively. Although it is growing, its market share is 12.2%, 10.7%, and 8.4%, respectively, declining all the way.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, a little value of Baishi is valued by Jitu-Baishi is the main express delivery service provider of Taobao. At that time, Zhou Shaoning, the founder of Best, held 47,790,698 Class C shares with 46.4% of the voting rights; Alibaba holds 48,900,357 Class A shares and 94,075,249 Class B shares, with 46.7% voting rights. In other words, Ali's voice is even greater than Zhou Shaoning's.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jitu swallowed Baishi, and it has a foothold in China, officially joining the e-commerce express delivery camp. Industry insiders believe that \"Best's terminal outlets, executives, and major customer resources have allowed Jitu to really sit on the poker table.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The pace of Jitu's acquisition has not stopped. In May 2023, SF Holdings transferred its business Fengwang Holdings to Jitu at a price of 1.183 billion yuan. Fengwang Information's revenue in 2022 will be 3.275 billion yuan, and its net loss will be 747 million yuan; In the first quarter of 2023, the revenue was 691 million yuan, and the net loss was 143 million yuan.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Jitu can be said to spend money to make friends. Today, more than 30 e-commerce platforms such as Taobao, Kuaishou, Douyin, and Dangdang have reached cooperation with Jitu, and Fengwang covers 27 provinces and cities across the country, with 1,671 franchise outlets. All return to Jitu in the future.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. The founder has a deep background in BBK</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Li Jie, the founder of Jitu, is an old subordinate of Chen Mingyong, the helm of OPPO, for many years, and a natural sales talent.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the data, Li Jie was born in Sichuan in 1967 and graduated from University of Science and Technology Beijing. After graduation, he worked in sales under the agent system of BBK. Because of his outstanding performance, he was poached by BBK.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There are rumors on the Internet that Duan Yongping appreciated Li Jie very much and brought Li Jie to BBK. The actual situation is that Chen Mingyong appreciates him very much and entrusts Li Jie with an important task. Since then, BBK has hatched OPPO, Vivo and Little Genius. Chen Mingyong has taken the helm of OPPO and brought Li Jie to OPPO.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Li Jie is very prominent in OPPO's sales business. After that, OPPO wanted to expand its business in Indonesia. Li Jie volunteered to go to Indonesia to open up the market when he couldn't even speak English or Indonesian. By 2020, OPPO's market share in Indonesia will reach 27.4%, surpassing Samsung.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As Chen Mingyong is a disciple of Duan Yongping, it can be said that Li Jie and Duan Yongping have a deep relationship, and they are also outstanding entrepreneurs who rely on BBK's cultural concept, marketing and strategic ability. However, in the early days when Jitu returned to China to start a business, Li Jie and Duan Yongping did not have much intersection.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Behind-the-scenes boss Duan Yongping and his Chinese disciples</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping graduated from the Radio Department of Zhejiang University in 1982. After graduation, he joined a state-owned enterprise. However, Duan Yongping, who was tired of life day after day, then chose to study for a master's degree in economics at the National People's Congress. After that, Duan Yongping went south to work in a small electronics factory and became the factory director in less than a year. Duan Yongping found great business opportunities in this process, and the Xiaobawang game console was born.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping not only turned Xiaobawang from a mess with an annual loss of 2 million yuan into a household name game console brand. Xiaobawang also hired Jackie Chan, a martial arts superstar, as his spokesperson, and the slogan \"Looking for Jackie Chan Xiaobawang\" was a household name at that time.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Duan Yongping's proposal to reform the shareholding system was rejected by the major shareholders. Since then, Duan Yongping has left, founded BBK, and created a business miracle. At the peak of his career, Duan Yongping fell in love with his junior sister Liu Xin. Under Duan Yongping's constant pursuit, Liu Xin was shaken.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Liu Xin suggested to Duan Yongping that as long as Duan Yongping dared to give up everything in China and live with himself in the United States, he would be willing to join hands with him all his life. In the face of career and love, Duan Yongping doesn't love Jiangshan and loves beauty. Duan Yongping decided to hand over all domestic industries to his friends and follow Liu Xin to live in the United States.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since then, Duan Yongping has split BBK into three companies. Two of them are OPPO, which is in charge of Chen Mingyong, and vivo, which is in charge of Shen Wei. Jin Zhijiang later took over BBK and became the father of \"little genius\". The three of them, plus Huang Zheng, the founder of Pinduoduo, are known as Duan Yongping's \"four disciples\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At that time, Duan Yongping instructed Huang Zheng to join Google, which was not listed at that time, instead of Microsoft, which was in full swing. Duan Yongping said at the time, \"Google seems to be a great company, and it is worth visiting. It's also good for your future business. If you go, stay for at least three years, because you can't really enter an important position and really get to know this company in a year or two.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2006, Duan Yongping photographed the lunch of \"stock god\" Buffett for $620,000. As the first Chinese to do so, Huang Zheng was among the people he brought there.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/198411c20eea7835d410777e415e8387\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Huang Zheng worked in Google for 3 years, followed Google to go public, and soon became worth of millions of dollars. In 2007, Huang Zheng spent three years at Google and decided to return to China to start a business. Duan Yongping is also the chairman of BBK, so he handed over one of the e-commerce businesses to him. Soon, Ouku.com, led by Huang Zheng, went online and was controlled by BBK. Since then, Duan Yongping has given Huang Zheng more or less guidance or help at all stages of Huang Zheng's entrepreneurship.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Huang Zheng once said, \"Lao Duan has a great influence on me. Chen Mingyong is the big apprentice, Shen Wei is the second apprentice, Jin Zhijiang is the third apprentice, and I am the fourth apprentice of the next generation.\" The three \"senior brothers\" Chen Yongming, Shen Wei and Jin Zhijiang are the founders of OPPO, the founders of Vivo and the CEO of BBK respectively. The investment of the first company that Huang Zheng returned to China to start a business also came from Duan Yongping.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping once said: Huang Zheng and I have been friends for more than 10 years. I know him and believe him. Huang Zheng is a rare and savvy person I know. He pays attention to the essence of things.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the development of Pinduoduo, Duan Yongping also gave support. Duan Yongping is also an angel investor in Pinduoduo. Investing in Pinduoduo also made Duan Yongping get huge returns.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nowadays, although Duan Yongping is not in China, the story of Duan Yongping will always be circulated in the Jianghu.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9edac35a59ad49044b51cb57cc6c470\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"597\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Recently, OPPO did not design chips, saying that in the face of the uncertainty of the global economy and mobile phone market, after careful consideration, the company decided to terminate the ZEKU business. OPPO said it was a difficult decision.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Behind this decision, there is also the shadow of Duan Yongping.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping commented on the Internet that among all the businesses that have stopped voluntarily in recent years, the only one that felt a survival crisis was that BBK sold the first batch of VCDs. At that time, there was a problem with the Sanyo movement used in the product, and BBK subsequently recalled all the 200,000 machines sold. \"That time was really uncomfortable\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Duan Yongping pointed out, \"The sooner you correct your mistakes, the better. No matter how big the cost is, it is the smallest cost! This is not the first business we shut down, and it will never be the last. If anyone asks us why we shut down these businesses, I will have to black them out directly.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40dd845f64e42ec14a01fe03bcfb6b6e","relate_stocks":{"01519":"极兔速递-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176607777","content_text":"极兔正成为中国快递行业的“黑马”。今日晚间，极兔递交招股书，准备在港交所上市。一旦上市，极兔将成继顺丰、京东物流、中通、申通、圆通及百世后，又一家上市的物流企业。年营收73亿美元极兔由OPPO印尼业务创始人李杰2015年于印尼首都雅加达创办，2019年，极兔成为东南亚第二大快递公司，同一年，极兔收购上海龙邦快递，在中国直接获得快递经营资质和快递网络。招股书显示，极兔2020年、2021年、2022年营收分别为15.35亿美元、48.52亿美元、72.67亿美元；期内利润分别为-6.64亿美元、-61.92亿美元、15.73亿美元。极兔2020年、2021年、2022年经调整EBITDA分别为-3.21亿美元、-5.28亿美元、-2.04亿美元。具体来看，极兔2020年、2021年、2022年来自东南亚的经调整EBITDA分别为2.67亿美元、4.27亿美元、3.32亿美元；在中国市场仍处于投入期，处于亏损状态，分别为-6.16亿美元、-9.4亿美元、-3.35亿美元。行业后辈 却声势鹊起国内快递行业原本的格局是三通一达，加顺丰和京东快递，但极兔以极短的时间在国内声势鹊起，只用10个月时间，极兔日单量突破2000万。达到这一目标，中通用16年，圆通用18年，韵达用19年，申通用25年。到2022年6月，极兔大客户会上传出，全网日均业务量已经突破且稳定在4000万件以上，跻身国内快递公司第一梯队。极兔这么快占领这么大市场份额，有几板斧：1，依托OPPO、Vivo原有的网络体系快速崛起。网上有传闻称，极兔早期能崛起的重要原因是，策反快递加盟商，谈钱不谈感情。过去几年，中国快递行业连年不断价格战，持续压低加盟商送快递的费用，加盟商们怨声载道。这个时候，极兔横空出世，通过给予更高的派件费用，让“通达系”的加盟商为极兔所用。2020年，极兔一度遭同行集体“封杀”。2021年4月6日，义乌邮政管理局更曾对极兔下发警示函，直指其“低价倾销”行为。熟悉极兔的人士对雷递网表示，极兔早期并没有对外做过招商，依然非常抢手。原因是，极兔依托OPPO、Vivo原有的网络体系，有一帮人愿意在极兔回国发展的时候，愿意拿出真金白银跟着干，认可极兔的商业和文化价值，觉得极兔一定能成，这是支撑极兔早期发展的最核心原因。2，持续大手笔收购。尽管在中国市场初来乍到，但极兔出手并不手软。2021年10月，百世和极兔共同宣布达成战略合作意向，百世集团将其在国内的快递业务以约68亿元（合11亿美元）的价格转让给极兔。百世卖掉国内快递业务，也是出于无奈，在快递行业持续价格战的背景下，百世在国内艰难求生，已经沦为了行业最差快递公司。百世快递在2019年-2021年第二季度单量分别为19.07亿、22.75亿、23.01亿，虽然在增长，但其市场份额分别为12.2%、10.7%、8.4%，一路下滑。不过，百世有一点的价值却为极兔所看重——百世是淘系的主要快递服务商。在当时，百世创始人周韶宁持有47,790,698股C类股，有46.4%的投票权；阿里持有48,900,357股A类股，及94,075,249股B类股，有46.7%的投票权。也就是说，阿里的话语权甚至比周韶宁还大。极兔吞下百世，在中国就有了立足之地，正式加入电商快递的大营。行业人士认为，“百世的末端网点、高管、大客户资源让极兔真正坐上了牌桌。”极兔的收购步伐也并未停止。2023年5月，顺丰控股又将旗下业务丰网控股转让给了极兔，作价11.83亿元。丰网信息2022年营收为32.75亿元，净亏损为7.47亿元；2023年第一季度营收为6.91亿元，净亏损为1.43亿元。极兔可谓是花钱交朋友，如今，淘宝、快手、抖音、当当等30多家电商平台都与极兔达成了合作，且丰网覆盖的全国27个省市，1671个加盟网点，以后全归极兔。3，创始人有很深步步高背景极兔创始人李杰是OPPO掌舵人陈明永多年的老部下，也是一位天生的销售人才。资料显示，李杰1967年出生于四川，毕业于北京科技大学，毕业后在步步高的代理商体系下从事销售工作。因业绩突出，被步步高挖角。网上有传闻称，是段永平非常欣赏李杰，将李杰带到了步步高。实际情况是陈明永非常欣赏他，对李杰委以重任。此后，步步高孵化出了OPPO、Vivo和小天才，陈明永掌舵了OPPO，也把李杰带到OPPO。李杰在OPPO销售业务非常突出。此后，OPPO要到印尼拓展业务，李杰在连英语和印尼语都不会的情况下，主动请缨去了印尼，开拓市场，到2020年OPPO在印尼的市场份额达到27.4%，超过三星。由于陈明永是段永平的门徒，可以说，李杰与段永平是有很深渊源的，也是依托步步高文化理念、营销与战略能力冒出的杰出创业者。不过，一直在极兔回国创业的早期，李杰与段永平并无太多的交集。幕后大佬段永平和他的中国门徒段永平1982年的时候毕业于浙江大学无线电系，毕业后进入国企工作，但厌倦了日复一日生活的段永平随后又选择去人大读经济学硕士。这之后，段永平南下到一家小型电子工厂工作，不到一年时间就成为厂长。段永平在这个过程中发现了很大商机，小霸王游戏机由此诞生。段永平不仅将小霸王从一个年度亏损达200万元的烂摊子，变成了家喻户晓的游戏主机品牌。小霸王还聘请武打巨星成龙担任代言人，“望子成龙小霸王”广告语在当时家喻户晓。不过，段永平的股份制改造建议遭遇大股东拒绝，此后，段永平出走，创办了步步高，并创造了一个商业奇迹。在事业取得高峰的时候，段永平爱上了他的师妹刘昕，在段永平不断追求下，刘昕动摇了。刘昕对段永平提出，只要段永平敢放弃在国内的一切，跟着自己在美国生活就愿意和他携手一生。事业和爱情面前，段永平在不爱江山爱美人。段永平在决定把国内的产业都交给他的朋友们，跟随刘昕远赴美国生活。此后，段永平将步步高拆为三家公司。其中两家便是陈明永负责的OPPO和沈炜负责的vivo，金志江则在后来接任了步步高，并成为“小天才”之父。他们三位加上拼多多创始人黄峥，被称为段永平的“四大门徒”。当年，段永平指点黄峥加盟当时未上市的谷歌工作，而非如日中天的微软。段永平当时说，“Google看起来是一家挺牛的公司，值得去看看。对你未来创业也是有好处的。去的话至少呆三年，因为一两年没法真正进入重要的岗位，真正了解这个公司。”段永平在2006年以62万美元的价格拍下“股神”巴菲特的午餐，为第一位这样做的华人，带过去的人中就有黄峥。黄峥在谷歌工作了3年，跟随谷歌上市，很快拥有百万美元身家。2007年，黄峥在谷歌满三年，决定回国创业。段永平还是步步高的董事长，便将其中一块电商业务交予他。不久，黄峥主导的欧酷网上线，由步步高控股。此后，黄铮创业各个阶段，段永平或多或少给予黄峥以指导或帮助。黄峥曾说，“老段对我的影响非常大，陈明永是大徒弟，沈炜是二徒弟，金志江是三徒弟，我算是下一代的四徒弟。”黄峥上面提到的3位“师兄”陈永明、沈炜和金志江，分别是OPPO创始人、Vivo创始人和步步高的CEO。黄峥回国创业的第一家公司的投资也是来自段永平。段永平曾表示：我和黄峥10 多年的朋友了，我了解他、相信他。黄峥是我知道的少见的很有悟性的人，他关注事物本质。在拼多多的发展中，段永平也给予了支持，段永平也是拼多多的天使投资人。而投资拼多多，也使得段永平获得了巨额的回报。如今，虽然段永平不在国内，但江湖永远流传着段永平的故事。近期，OPPO不做芯片设计，称面对全球经济、手机市场的不确定性，经过慎重考虑，公司决定终止ZEKU业务。OPPO表示，这是艰难的决定。这个决定背后，也有段永平的影子。段永平就在网上点评说，这些年所有主动停止的业务里，唯一感到生存危机的是步步高卖出第一批VCD。当时产品用的三洋机芯出了问题，步步高随后把卖出的20万台机器全部召回了，“那一次确实难受”。段永平指出，“改正错误越早越好，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价！这不是我们关掉的第一个业务，也绝不会是最后一个。谁再问我们为什么关掉这些业务，我就只好直接拉黑了哈。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01519":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188140553883896,"gmtCreate":1686958478118,"gmtModify":1686958481789,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188140553883896","repostId":"1133979930","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133979930","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1686927123,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133979930?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-16 22:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"AbbVie and BeiGene: You can't step into the same river","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133979930","media":"氨基观察","summary":"“专利，是给天才之火加上利润之油”，林肯的这句名言，被创新药领域的重磅炸弹药物一次次印证。药企之间，没有什么比一场成功的专利战，更能将对手一击致命。但同时，被狙击的一方，绝不会轻易束手就擒，往往会用尽","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"Patents are the oil that adds profit to the fire of genius.\" Lincoln's famous saying has been confirmed again and again by blockbuster drugs in the field of innovative drugs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Among pharmaceutical companies, nothing can kill their opponents more than a successful patent war. But at the same time, the party who was attacked would never surrender easily, and would often resist with all its strength.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, more often than not, the start of a patent war means that a tug-of-war begins. In many cases, the end of patent wars is that a protracted confrontation ended in reconciliation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the past, the protagonists of patent wars were often overseas pharmaceutical companies. However, as domestic pharmaceutical companies play an increasingly important role in the research and development of global innovative drugs, overseas pharmaceutical companies that feel threatened have begun to include domestic pharmaceutical companies in the patent sniper list.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The latest domestic pharmaceutical company to be attacked is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On June 15, according to Bloomberg News, AbbVie's complaint will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688235\">BeiGene</a>Zanubrutinib sued in court, claiming that it infringed the patent of ibrutinib.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This does not mean that zanubrutinib necessarily constitutes an infringement fact. It's just that at the moment<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06160\">BeiGene</a>And AbbVie happened to stand in front of the same opportunity as BTK inhibitors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the business world of survival of the fittest, zanubrutinib and ibrutinib cannot step into the same river. Patent sniping is a means that AbbVie must use in order to stabilize its position.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Regardless of the outcome, the confrontation between AbbVie and BeiGene is a precious sample for China's innovative drug industry.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/01/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>The battle for BTK inhibitors</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since its inception in 2013, the sales of AbbVie's BTK inhibitor ibrutinib have been running wildly. In 2021, ibrutinib will be AbbVie,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>Brought in a total of $9.8 billion in revenue.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ibrutinib's super gold-absorbing ability has attracted many players to enter the game. Five BTK inhibitors have been approved for marketing around the world. Among them, one of the strongest players is Zanubrutinib of BeiGene.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the ASH Congress in the United States in 2022, a phase III clinical trial called ALPINE announced by BeiGene showed that in the head-to-head clinical trial of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)/small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL), zanubrutinib defeated ibrutinib.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of efficacy, compared with ibrutinib, zanubrutinib has a better ORR (78.3% vs. 62.5%) and a higher OS rate (97.0% vs. 92.7%). In terms of safety, the incidence of adverse events of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the zanubrutinib group was significantly reduced (2.5% vs. 10.19%)</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In January this year, with this data, zanubrutinib was approved by the FDA for the treatment of CLL/SLL. In the 2023 NCCN guidelines for the treatment of CLL/SLL, the recommendation level of zanubrutinib has been placed ahead of ibrutinib.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">You know, CLL/SLL has always been one of the most important indications for ibrutinib. In the sales of ibrutinib of nearly US $10 billion, a large part of the market share comes from the contribution of this field.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, after zanubrutinib won this indication, Wall Street securities analysts predicted that in the CLL indication alone, the peak sales of zanubrutinib may reach US $3.1 billion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Of course, the size of the cake in the CLL/SLL field is certain, and the growth of zanubrutinib sales will inevitably mean that the market share of ibrutinib has been eroded.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this battle for BTK inhibitors, ibrutinib has gradually shown a decline. In the first quarter, AbbVie's ibrutinib sales fell 25.2% to US $878 million.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Today's AbbVie is facing tremendous pressure. In addition to the encirclement and suppression of ibrutinib, the patent of the core product \"drug king\" Humira has expired, and its market share is also being eroded by generic drugs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this case, AbbVie had to launch a counterattack. Therefore, AbbVie has come up with its own killer weapon: patent war.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/02/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>An inevitable dispute</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the field of biopharmaceuticals, the most common form of commercial war is patent war.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because drug patents are closely linked to drug sales, once the patent is broken, it may bring fatal harm to the drug. Therefore, patent litigation has always been a powerful weapon for multinational pharmaceutical companies to block competitors and maintain market position.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AbbVie, on the other hand, is well versed in the rules of patent wars. Focusing on BTK inhibitors, AbbVie has made many patent layouts and is constantly expanding the scope of protection. This has also become its secret weapon to disrupt the position of competitors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As early as 2017,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">AstraZeneca</a>Shortly after the BTK inhibitor Calaquence was approved to treat mantle cell lymphoma, AbbVie sued Calaquence for infringing its patent.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But AstraZeneca didn't back down, filing a counter-lawsuit against AbbVie in 2018. After two years of tug-of-war, AbbVie and AstraZeneca finally reached a settlement, and Calaquence sales were not affected</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition to BTK inhibitors, AbbVie has also repeatedly used patent wars as a killer in order to safeguard the rights and interests of the \"drug king\" Humira.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the patent protection of Humira's active ingredients has expired as early as 2016, AbbVie has woven a dense patent protective net for the high walls cast by its peripheral patents.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once a competitor touches Humira's patent protection net, AbbVie will sue and strongly counter-attack. In the most typical infringement case, AbbVie put forward 1,600 claims in one breath, directly deceiving its opponents.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact, it's not just Humira and ibrutinib. When we count the blockbuster drugs around the world, it's not difficult to find that there are more or less cases of patent disputes behind them.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, the world's new \"medicine king\" K medicine.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On September 4, 2014, drug K was approved for marketing in the United States. On the same day, BMS/Ono Pharmaceutical will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck & Co</a>It went to court, claiming that K drug violated its PD-1 antibody patent rights.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the subsequent K-drugs also launched a counterattack, the winners of this patent battle in the end are still BMS and Ono Pharmaceutical, and Merck needs to pay dividends to the two on the sales of K-drugs every year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another example is AstraZeneca/Daiichi Sankyo's DS-8201, Moderna's mRNA technology, CRISPR's gene editing technology and other blockbuster products and technologies, which all have unclear patent disputes behind them.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What is hidden behind the patent dispute is actually the dispute of commercial interests.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To put it bluntly, patent litigation is just a strategy and tool. Maximizing one's own interests through continuous patent litigation wars is the ultimate goal that pharmaceutical companies want to achieve in launching patent wars.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/03/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>A precious sample</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The world is bustling for profit, and the world is bustling for profit. As long as the word \"profit\" takes the lead, the patent war will never stop.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">How to deal with the numerous patent wars is an important knowledge. Although patent warfare is only a conventional means of commercial warfare, if the response is unfavorable, drugs may suffer great harm.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>/Regeneron's PCSK9 patent dispute is a good example.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In October 2014, Amgen's Repatha and Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent PCSK9 monoclonal antibody both submitted marketing applications to the FDA. Since Sanofi used priority review coupons, Praluent was the first to be approved for listing.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Amgen, which followed closely behind, made a big move, a patent war. In 2014, Amgen sued Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent for infringing its patents, demanding that Praluent be prohibited from infringing production, use and sales.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Faced with Amgen's sudden blow, Sanofi/Regeneron failed to successfully defend the attack. In 2016, Amgen won a patent lawsuit, and Praluent was successively kicked out of the US, Japan, and European markets. Amgen's Repatha took the opportunity to win 70% of the global market share.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Sanofi and Regeneron did not give up, and they continued to appeal to invalidate Regeneron's patent. After several contests, on May 18, this nearly 10-year lawsuit finally came to an end, and two patents of Amgen's Repatha were ruled invalid.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Sanofi/Regeneron won the patent, the blow to Praluent caused by the patent war is irreparable. In 2022, Amgen's Repatha sales were approximately US $1.3 billion, while Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent sales were only US $376 million during the same period.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From this example, we can also see that although launching a patent war is only a common means used by large pharmaceutical companies to check and balance their opponents, the challengers cannot take it lightly. Once the preparation is inadequate and the challenger gets the upper hand, it will cause great harm to drug sales.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, after the news of AbbVie's attack on zanubrutinib came out, investors' panic was visible to the naked eye. As of the close of trading on June 15, BeiGene's A-share stock price fell 14%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although BeiGene will not sit still for AbbVie's attack, it said that it \"will respond to the complaint at an appropriate time and carry out an active defense\", but no one can predict what the final result will be.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Compared with the outcome of the dispute between the two parties, a more noteworthy point is that domestic pharmaceutical companies must re-examine patent issues if they want to seize the European and American markets.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After all, as more and more Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies begin to go international, in the process, the chances of domestic pharmaceutical companies being attacked by overseas pharmaceutical companies' patents will also greatly increase.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of patent wars, foreign companies often come prepared. Once they feel that their market share is threatened, they will launch fierce patent attacks.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1686927134813","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AbbVie and BeiGene: You can't step into the same river</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAbbVie and BeiGene: You can't step into the same river\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">氨基观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-16 22:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"Patents are the oil that adds profit to the fire of genius.\" Lincoln's famous saying has been confirmed again and again by blockbuster drugs in the field of innovative drugs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Among pharmaceutical companies, nothing can kill their opponents more than a successful patent war. But at the same time, the party who was attacked would never surrender easily, and would often resist with all its strength.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, more often than not, the start of a patent war means that a tug-of-war begins. In many cases, the end of patent wars is that a protracted confrontation ended in reconciliation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the past, the protagonists of patent wars were often overseas pharmaceutical companies. However, as domestic pharmaceutical companies play an increasingly important role in the research and development of global innovative drugs, overseas pharmaceutical companies that feel threatened have begun to include domestic pharmaceutical companies in the patent sniper list.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The latest domestic pharmaceutical company to be attacked is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>。</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On June 15, according to Bloomberg News, AbbVie's complaint will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688235\">BeiGene</a>Zanubrutinib sued in court, claiming that it infringed the patent of ibrutinib.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This does not mean that zanubrutinib necessarily constitutes an infringement fact. It's just that at the moment<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06160\">BeiGene</a>And AbbVie happened to stand in front of the same opportunity as BTK inhibitors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the business world of survival of the fittest, zanubrutinib and ibrutinib cannot step into the same river. Patent sniping is a means that AbbVie must use in order to stabilize its position.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Regardless of the outcome, the confrontation between AbbVie and BeiGene is a precious sample for China's innovative drug industry.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/01/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>The battle for BTK inhibitors</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since its inception in 2013, the sales of AbbVie's BTK inhibitor ibrutinib have been running wildly. In 2021, ibrutinib will be AbbVie,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>Brought in a total of $9.8 billion in revenue.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ibrutinib's super gold-absorbing ability has attracted many players to enter the game. Five BTK inhibitors have been approved for marketing around the world. Among them, one of the strongest players is Zanubrutinib of BeiGene.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the ASH Congress in the United States in 2022, a phase III clinical trial called ALPINE announced by BeiGene showed that in the head-to-head clinical trial of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)/small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL), zanubrutinib defeated ibrutinib.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of efficacy, compared with ibrutinib, zanubrutinib has a better ORR (78.3% vs. 62.5%) and a higher OS rate (97.0% vs. 92.7%). In terms of safety, the incidence of adverse events of atrial fibrillation/flutter in the zanubrutinib group was significantly reduced (2.5% vs. 10.19%)</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In January this year, with this data, zanubrutinib was approved by the FDA for the treatment of CLL/SLL. In the 2023 NCCN guidelines for the treatment of CLL/SLL, the recommendation level of zanubrutinib has been placed ahead of ibrutinib.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">You know, CLL/SLL has always been one of the most important indications for ibrutinib. In the sales of ibrutinib of nearly US $10 billion, a large part of the market share comes from the contribution of this field.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, after zanubrutinib won this indication, Wall Street securities analysts predicted that in the CLL indication alone, the peak sales of zanubrutinib may reach US $3.1 billion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Of course, the size of the cake in the CLL/SLL field is certain, and the growth of zanubrutinib sales will inevitably mean that the market share of ibrutinib has been eroded.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this battle for BTK inhibitors, ibrutinib has gradually shown a decline. In the first quarter, AbbVie's ibrutinib sales fell 25.2% to US $878 million.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Today's AbbVie is facing tremendous pressure. In addition to the encirclement and suppression of ibrutinib, the patent of the core product \"drug king\" Humira has expired, and its market share is also being eroded by generic drugs.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this case, AbbVie had to launch a counterattack. Therefore, AbbVie has come up with its own killer weapon: patent war.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/02/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>An inevitable dispute</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the field of biopharmaceuticals, the most common form of commercial war is patent war.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because drug patents are closely linked to drug sales, once the patent is broken, it may bring fatal harm to the drug. Therefore, patent litigation has always been a powerful weapon for multinational pharmaceutical companies to block competitors and maintain market position.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AbbVie, on the other hand, is well versed in the rules of patent wars. Focusing on BTK inhibitors, AbbVie has made many patent layouts and is constantly expanding the scope of protection. This has also become its secret weapon to disrupt the position of competitors.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As early as 2017,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">AstraZeneca</a>Shortly after the BTK inhibitor Calaquence was approved to treat mantle cell lymphoma, AbbVie sued Calaquence for infringing its patent.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But AstraZeneca didn't back down, filing a counter-lawsuit against AbbVie in 2018. After two years of tug-of-war, AbbVie and AstraZeneca finally reached a settlement, and Calaquence sales were not affected</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition to BTK inhibitors, AbbVie has also repeatedly used patent wars as a killer in order to safeguard the rights and interests of the \"drug king\" Humira.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the patent protection of Humira's active ingredients has expired as early as 2016, AbbVie has woven a dense patent protective net for the high walls cast by its peripheral patents.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Once a competitor touches Humira's patent protection net, AbbVie will sue and strongly counter-attack. In the most typical infringement case, AbbVie put forward 1,600 claims in one breath, directly deceiving its opponents.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact, it's not just Humira and ibrutinib. When we count the blockbuster drugs around the world, it's not difficult to find that there are more or less cases of patent disputes behind them.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, the world's new \"medicine king\" K medicine.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On September 4, 2014, drug K was approved for marketing in the United States. On the same day, BMS/Ono Pharmaceutical will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck & Co</a>It went to court, claiming that K drug violated its PD-1 antibody patent rights.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the subsequent K-drugs also launched a counterattack, the winners of this patent battle in the end are still BMS and Ono Pharmaceutical, and Merck needs to pay dividends to the two on the sales of K-drugs every year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another example is AstraZeneca/Daiichi Sankyo's DS-8201, Moderna's mRNA technology, CRISPR's gene editing technology and other blockbuster products and technologies, which all have unclear patent disputes behind them.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What is hidden behind the patent dispute is actually the dispute of commercial interests.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To put it bluntly, patent litigation is just a strategy and tool. Maximizing one's own interests through continuous patent litigation wars is the ultimate goal that pharmaceutical companies want to achieve in launching patent wars.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>/03/</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>A precious sample</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The world is bustling for profit, and the world is bustling for profit. As long as the word \"profit\" takes the lead, the patent war will never stop.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">How to deal with the numerous patent wars is an important knowledge. Although patent warfare is only a conventional means of commercial warfare, if the response is unfavorable, drugs may suffer great harm.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a>With<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>/Regeneron's PCSK9 patent dispute is a good example.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In October 2014, Amgen's Repatha and Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent PCSK9 monoclonal antibody both submitted marketing applications to the FDA. Since Sanofi used priority review coupons, Praluent was the first to be approved for listing.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Amgen, which followed closely behind, made a big move, a patent war. In 2014, Amgen sued Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent for infringing its patents, demanding that Praluent be prohibited from infringing production, use and sales.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Faced with Amgen's sudden blow, Sanofi/Regeneron failed to successfully defend the attack. In 2016, Amgen won a patent lawsuit, and Praluent was successively kicked out of the US, Japan, and European markets. Amgen's Repatha took the opportunity to win 70% of the global market share.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, Sanofi and Regeneron did not give up, and they continued to appeal to invalidate Regeneron's patent. After several contests, on May 18, this nearly 10-year lawsuit finally came to an end, and two patents of Amgen's Repatha were ruled invalid.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although Sanofi/Regeneron won the patent, the blow to Praluent caused by the patent war is irreparable. In 2022, Amgen's Repatha sales were approximately US $1.3 billion, while Sanofi/Regeneron's Praluent sales were only US $376 million during the same period.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From this example, we can also see that although launching a patent war is only a common means used by large pharmaceutical companies to check and balance their opponents, the challengers cannot take it lightly. Once the preparation is inadequate and the challenger gets the upper hand, it will cause great harm to drug sales.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, after the news of AbbVie's attack on zanubrutinib came out, investors' panic was visible to the naked eye. As of the close of trading on June 15, BeiGene's A-share stock price fell 14%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although BeiGene will not sit still for AbbVie's attack, it said that it \"will respond to the complaint at an appropriate time and carry out an active defense\", but no one can predict what the final result will be.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Compared with the outcome of the dispute between the two parties, a more noteworthy point is that domestic pharmaceutical companies must re-examine patent issues if they want to seize the European and American markets.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After all, as more and more Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies begin to go international, in the process, the chances of domestic pharmaceutical companies being attacked by overseas pharmaceutical companies' patents will also greatly increase.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In terms of patent wars, foreign companies often come prepared. Once they feel that their market share is threatened, they will launch fierce patent attacks.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwMjU5Njk5NA==&mid=2247496324&idx=1&sn=368b858aadaf3d6665d1cbe72af1cf78&chksm=96de8569a1a90c7f4700ab1c97d8f4794355914f5d6c19d7ecd88ac9a0d32cba49ceb8929d32#rd\">氨基观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3771c3d94c1c3544b07a5dcf5fabd2ee","relate_stocks":{"688235":"百济神州","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","06160":"百济神州","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","BK1500":"做空集合股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK0239":"医药制造","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS SGD","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1161":"生物科技","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4139":"生物科技","BK1583":"高瓴概念","LU1969619763.USD":"EASTSPRING INV CHINA A SHARES GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwMjU5Njk5NA==&mid=2247496324&idx=1&sn=368b858aadaf3d6665d1cbe72af1cf78&chksm=96de8569a1a90c7f4700ab1c97d8f4794355914f5d6c19d7ecd88ac9a0d32cba49ceb8929d32#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133979930","content_text":"“专利，是给天才之火加上利润之油”，林肯的这句名言，被创新药领域的重磅炸弹药物一次次印证。药企之间，没有什么比一场成功的专利战，更能将对手一击致命。但同时，被狙击的一方，绝不会轻易束手就擒，往往会用尽了全力反抗。所以，更多时候，专利战的开打，意味着一场拉锯战就此开始。不少情况下，专利战的结局都是，旷日持久的对峙后以和解告终。过往，专利战的主角往往是海外药企。但随着国内药企，在全球创新药研发中的地位越来越重要，感受到威胁的海外药企，开始将国内药企纳入专利狙击名单。最新被狙击的国内药企是百济神州。6月15日，据彭博社消息，艾伯维一纸诉状将百济神州的泽布替尼诉至公堂，称其侵犯了伊布替尼的专利。这并不意味着泽布替尼一定构成侵权事实。只是，当下百济神州和艾伯维恰好站在了，BTK抑制剂这同一个机遇面前。在优胜劣汰的商业世界，泽布替尼和伊布替尼无法踏进同一条河流。而专利狙击，是艾伯维为了稳固自身地位，必须打出的手段。不管结果如何，对中国创新药行业而言，艾伯维与百济神州的对垒，都是一个珍贵的样本。/ 01 /BTK抑制剂争夺战自2013年问世以来，艾伯维的BTK抑制剂伊布替尼销售额一路狂奔。2021年，伊布替尼为艾伯维、强生带来了总计98亿美元的收入。伊布替尼超强的吸金能力，吸引了众多选手入局，全球已有5款BTK抑制剂获批上市。其中，实力最强劲的选手之一，是百济神州的泽布替尼。2022年在美国ASH大会上，百济神州公布的一项名为ALPINE的三期临床试验显示，在慢性淋巴细胞白血病 (CLL) /小淋巴细胞淋巴瘤 (SLL) 的头对头临床试验中，泽布替尼击败了伊布替尼。在疗效上，与伊布替尼相比泽布替尼具有更好的ORR（78.3% vs. 62.5%），更高的OS率（97.0% vs. 92.7%）。在安全性上，泽布替尼组出现房颤/房扑的不良事件发生率显著降低（2.5% vs. 10.19%）今年1月，凭借这一数据，泽布替尼获FDA批准用于治疗CLL/SLL。在2023年的NCCN 治疗CLL/SLL指南中，泽布替尼的推荐级别已被置于伊布替尼之前。要知道，CLL/SLL一直是伊布替尼的最为重要的适应症之一。在伊布替尼近100亿美元的销售额中，有一大部分的市场份额均来自这一领域的贡献。因此，在泽布替尼拿下这一适应症后，华尔街的证券分析师预测，仅在CLL一个适应症上，泽布替尼的销售额峰值就可能达到31亿美元。当然了，CLL/SLL领域蛋糕大小是确定的，泽布替尼销售额的增长，必然意味着伊布替尼市场份额受到蚕食。在这场BTK抑制剂的争夺战中，伊布替尼已经逐渐显露出颓势。一季度，艾伯维的伊布替尼销售额下滑25.2%，为8.78亿美元。如今的艾伯维，正面临巨大压力。除了伊布替尼遭受围剿外，核心产品“药王”修美乐专利到期，市场份额也在被仿制药蚕食。在这种情况下，艾伯维不得不发起反击。所以，艾伯维拿出了自己的杀手锏：专利战。/ 02 /必然发生的纠纷在生物制药领域，最常见的商战形式便是专利战。因为药物专利和药物的销售情况紧紧相连，一旦攻破专利可能给药物带来致命伤害。所以专利诉讼一直是跨国药企阻击竞争对手、维持市场地位的有力武器。而艾伯维，更是深谙专利之战的规则。围绕BTK抑制剂，艾伯维做了诸多专利布局，且在不断扩大保护范围。这也成为其搅乱竞争对手阵脚的秘密武器。早在2017年，阿斯利康的BTK抑制剂 Calaquence获批治疗套细胞淋巴瘤后不久，艾伯维便起诉Calaquence侵犯了自己的专利。但阿斯利康没有退却，在2018年对艾伯维提起了反诉讼，经过两年的拉锯后，艾伯维和阿斯利康最终达成了和解，Calaquence的销售并未受到影响BTK抑制剂之外，艾伯维也曾为维护“药王”修美乐的权益，多次拿出专利战这一杀手锏。虽然，早在2016年修美乐活性成分的专利保护已经过期，但艾伯维为其外围专利铸造的高墙，编织了一张致密的专利防护网。一旦有竞争对手触碰到修美乐的专利防护网，艾伯维就会诉讼予以强烈反击。最典型的侵权案例中，艾伯维一口气提出了1600个权利要求，直接把对手打蒙。事实上，不仅仅是修美乐和伊布替尼，当我们细数全球的重磅炸弹药物后，不难发现其背后多多少少都有着专利纠纷的案例。比如，全球新任“药王”K药。2014年9月4日，K药在美国获批上市。而就在同一天，BMS/小野制药将默沙东告上了法庭，称K药侵犯了其PD-1抗体专利权。虽然，后续K药也进行了反攻，但最终这场专利战的胜者仍然是BMS和小野制药，默沙东需要每年向二者分红K药的销售额。再比如阿斯利康/第一三共的DS-8201、Moderna的mRNA技术、CRISPR的基因编辑技术等重磅产品、技术背后都有着厘不清的专利纠纷。专利纠纷背后隐藏的，实则是商业利益之争。直白地说，专利诉讼只是策略和工具，通过不断专利诉讼战将自己的利益最大化，这才是药企发动专利战要达到的最终目的。/ 03 /珍贵的样本天下熙熙皆为利来，天下攘攘皆为利去，只要“利”字当头，专利战就永远不会停歇。而如何应对纷繁的专利战，是一门重要的学问。虽然专利战只是一种常规商战手段，但倘若应对不利，可能使药物受到巨大的伤害。安进与赛诺菲/再生元的PCSK9的专利之争，便是一个很好的例子。2014年10月，安进的Repatha和赛诺菲/再生元的Praluent PCSK9单抗都向FDA提交上市申请。由于赛诺菲使用了优先审评券，所以Praluent率先获批上市。但紧随其后的安进祭出了大招，专利战。2014年安进状告赛诺菲/再生元的Praluent侵犯了其拥有的专利，要求禁止Praluent侵权生产、使用和销售。面对着安进突如其来的一击，赛诺菲/再生元没能成功守住攻击。2016年，安进赢得了专利诉讼，Praluent被相继踢出美国、日本、欧洲市场。安进的Repatha则借机赢得了全球70%的市场份额。不过，赛诺菲、再生元并未放弃，二者继续上诉要求无效再生元的专利。经过几番较量，5月18日，这场打了将近10年的官司终于落下帷幕，安进的Repatha两项专利被判无效。虽然赛诺菲/再生元赢了专利，但专利战对Praluent造成的打击已经无法挽回。2022年，安进的Repatha销售额约为13亿美元，而同期赛诺菲/再生元的Praluent销售额仅为3.76亿美元。从这个例子我们也能看到，虽然发起专利战只是大药企制衡对手的惯用手段，但被挑战者并不能就此掉以轻心。一旦准备不充分，被挑战者占据了上风，会对药物销售造成巨大的伤害。所以，在艾伯维狙击泽布替尼消息传出后，投资者的恐慌肉眼可见。截止6月15日收盘，百济神州A股股价大跌14%。虽然百济神州对于艾伯维的狙击也不会坐以待毙，其表示“将在适当的时候对该投诉作出应对，并开展积极的辩护”，但谁也无法预料到最终的结果将会如何。相比于双方纠纷的结果，更值得关注的一点是：国内药企要想去抢占欧美市场，必须重新审视专利问题。毕竟，随着越来越多中国的创新药企开始走向国际，在这个过程中，国内药企被遭到海外药企专利狙击的机会，也会大大增加。而在专利战方面，国外企业往往有备而来，它们一旦感受到市场份额受到威胁时，便会发动猛烈地专利狙击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688235":0.9,"06160":0.9,"BGNE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188141309186200,"gmtCreate":1686958460457,"gmtModify":1686958464404,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"M","listText":"M","text":"M","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188141309186200","repostId":"2343198417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2343198417","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1686928800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2343198417?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-16 23:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Adobe's prospects are more constructive under the blessing of AI, and Wall Street banks have raised their price targets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2343198417","media":"智通财经网","summary":"由于Adobe Q2业绩超出市场预期、以及上调全年业绩指引，多家华尔街大行均上调对该股目标价。软件服务巨头Adobe周四美股盘后公布了2023财年第二季度财报。由于Adobe Q2业绩超出市场预期、以","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As Adobe's Q2 performance exceeded market expectations and raised its full-year performance guidance, many major Wall Street banks raised their target prices on the stock. Software services giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>On Thursday, the U.S. stock market announced its second quarter financial report for fiscal year 2023 after the market closed. As Adobe's Q2 performance exceeded market expectations and raised its full-year performance guidance, many major Wall Street banks raised their target prices on the stock.</p><p>Adobe's Q2 total revenue increased by 10% year-on-year to US $4.82 billion, better than analysts' average expectation of US $4.77 billion; Adjusted earnings per share of $3.91 were better than analysts' average estimate of $3.79. In addition, Adobe raised its full-year fiscal 2023 revenue and earnings per share estimates. The company believes that generative artificial intelligence (AI) capable software will stimulate market demand for its software. The company expects total full-year revenue to be $19.25 billion to $19.35 billion (previously expected $19.2 billion), compared with analysts' expectations of $19.3 billion; Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $15.65 to $15.75 (previously expected $15.60), compared with analysts expecting $15.50.</p><p>Adobe, long a software sales giant for creative professionals, is adding generative AI capabilities to its products. \"Given our rich datasets, underlying models, and ubiquitous product interfaces, Adobe's groundbreaking innovations allow us to lead a new era of generative AI,\" Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p>Here's what the major banks have to say about Adobe:</p><p>Barclays analyst Saket Kalia gave Adobe a \"wait and see\" rating and raised the target price from $485 to $540. Analysts say Adobe's share price rally stems from its pricing advantage, which is likely to be more pronounced in the second half of the year. Analysts noted that the company has ways to monetize its generative AI tool, Firefly. Furthermore, given the outlook for generative AI and the current regulatory environment, the absence of any updates on the deal to acquire Figma could be viewed as a positive.</p><p>The analysts wrote in the report: \"Adobe's net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) for the digital media business is $410 million in the third quarter, and the implied expectation for the fourth quarter is about $460 million. Even without assuming that Firefly will make a performance contribution in the fourth quarter, we will think that the fourth quarter expectation seems conservative.\" \"While we are not sure whether the performance growth can be maintained at the second quarter level by then, we think the performance guidance set by the company means that this level can be sustained.\"</p><p>The analyst added that Adobe has three ways to monetize its generative AI tool Firefly: using Creative co-pilot can increase average revenue per user; Increase user stickiness and improve user retention rate; Increase paying subscribers through a freemium model. \"As FireFly starts to feel like a more real growth opportunity, we're starting to feel this change in sentiment, and some investors are wondering if the potential deal with Figma is really as negative as it was feared a few months ago,\" the analysts said.</p><p>UBS analyst Karl Keirstead maintained a \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his target price from $440 to $525. Analysts pointed out that Adobe's overall performance in the second quarter increased, especially strong revenue and ARR growth in its core creative unit, which should help calm investor concerns. Analysts are also optimistic that the company will benefit from generative AI, although the company seems to be focused more on applications than revenue (at least in the near term).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Keith Weiss maintained Adobe's \"wait and see\" rating and raised the target price from $470 to $510. Adobe's second-quarter results were \"impressive,\" analysts said, adding that the company's guidance upgrade \"shows solid execution in a tough macro environment.\" However, analysts also pointed out that given the uncertainty of the Figma deal, it is still open to question whether the company's revenue can re-accelerate growth.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analyst Mark Murphy maintained a \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his target price from $450 to $490. According to analysts, Adobe's second-quarter results showed \"relative resilience,\" with slightly higher-than-expected net new ARR guidance for the third quarter and slightly upward revisions to both total revenue and net new ARR guidance for fiscal 2023. Analysts say the company remains relatively well positioned thanks to growth that can be achieved in the near term, coupled with some macro conservatism.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Maintain Adobe's \"buy\" rating and raise the target price from $480 to $550. Analysts at the bank said that Adobe's second-quarter earnings report announced on Thursday, coupled with recently announced products, may directly change investor narratives about artificial intelligence, and Adobe is likely to be the main beneficiary. The company's \"extensive data-driven platform and product-led growth should allow it to capture this opportunity,\" analysts said.</p><p>In addition, Baird analyst Rob Oliver maintained Adobe's \"neutral\" rating and raised the target price from $370 to $500;</p><p>Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz maintained Adobe's \"neutral\" rating and raised the target price from $450 to $520;</p><p>Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin maintained Adobe's \"overweight\" rating and raised the target price from $500 to $572;</p><p>Stifel analyst J. Parker Lane maintains Adobe's \"buy\" rating and raises the target price from $400 to $550;</p><p>Bank of America analyst Brad Sills maintained a \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised the target price from $480 to $575;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Maintain Adobe's \"overweight\" rating and raise the target price from $525 to $600.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe's prospects are more constructive under the blessing of AI, and Wall Street banks have raised their price targets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe's prospects are more constructive under the blessing of AI, and Wall Street banks have raised their price targets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-16 23:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As Adobe's Q2 performance exceeded market expectations and raised its full-year performance guidance, many major Wall Street banks raised their target prices on the stock. Software services giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>On Thursday, the U.S. stock market announced its second quarter financial report for fiscal year 2023 after the market closed. As Adobe's Q2 performance exceeded market expectations and raised its full-year performance guidance, many major Wall Street banks raised their target prices on the stock.</p><p>Adobe's Q2 total revenue increased by 10% year-on-year to US $4.82 billion, better than analysts' average expectation of US $4.77 billion; Adjusted earnings per share of $3.91 were better than analysts' average estimate of $3.79. In addition, Adobe raised its full-year fiscal 2023 revenue and earnings per share estimates. The company believes that generative artificial intelligence (AI) capable software will stimulate market demand for its software. The company expects total full-year revenue to be $19.25 billion to $19.35 billion (previously expected $19.2 billion), compared with analysts' expectations of $19.3 billion; Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $15.65 to $15.75 (previously expected $15.60), compared with analysts expecting $15.50.</p><p>Adobe, long a software sales giant for creative professionals, is adding generative AI capabilities to its products. \"Given our rich datasets, underlying models, and ubiquitous product interfaces, Adobe's groundbreaking innovations allow us to lead a new era of generative AI,\" Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p>Here's what the major banks have to say about Adobe:</p><p>Barclays analyst Saket Kalia gave Adobe a \"wait and see\" rating and raised the target price from $485 to $540. Analysts say Adobe's share price rally stems from its pricing advantage, which is likely to be more pronounced in the second half of the year. Analysts noted that the company has ways to monetize its generative AI tool, Firefly. Furthermore, given the outlook for generative AI and the current regulatory environment, the absence of any updates on the deal to acquire Figma could be viewed as a positive.</p><p>The analysts wrote in the report: \"Adobe's net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) for the digital media business is $410 million in the third quarter, and the implied expectation for the fourth quarter is about $460 million. Even without assuming that Firefly will make a performance contribution in the fourth quarter, we will think that the fourth quarter expectation seems conservative.\" \"While we are not sure whether the performance growth can be maintained at the second quarter level by then, we think the performance guidance set by the company means that this level can be sustained.\"</p><p>The analyst added that Adobe has three ways to monetize its generative AI tool Firefly: using Creative co-pilot can increase average revenue per user; Increase user stickiness and improve user retention rate; Increase paying subscribers through a freemium model. \"As FireFly starts to feel like a more real growth opportunity, we're starting to feel this change in sentiment, and some investors are wondering if the potential deal with Figma is really as negative as it was feared a few months ago,\" the analysts said.</p><p>UBS analyst Karl Keirstead maintained a \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his target price from $440 to $525. Analysts pointed out that Adobe's overall performance in the second quarter increased, especially strong revenue and ARR growth in its core creative unit, which should help calm investor concerns. Analysts are also optimistic that the company will benefit from generative AI, although the company seems to be focused more on applications than revenue (at least in the near term).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Keith Weiss maintained Adobe's \"wait and see\" rating and raised the target price from $470 to $510. Adobe's second-quarter results were \"impressive,\" analysts said, adding that the company's guidance upgrade \"shows solid execution in a tough macro environment.\" However, analysts also pointed out that given the uncertainty of the Figma deal, it is still open to question whether the company's revenue can re-accelerate growth.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Analyst Mark Murphy maintained a \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised his target price from $450 to $490. According to analysts, Adobe's second-quarter results showed \"relative resilience,\" with slightly higher-than-expected net new ARR guidance for the third quarter and slightly upward revisions to both total revenue and net new ARR guidance for fiscal 2023. Analysts say the company remains relatively well positioned thanks to growth that can be achieved in the near term, coupled with some macro conservatism.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Maintain Adobe's \"buy\" rating and raise the target price from $480 to $550. Analysts at the bank said that Adobe's second-quarter earnings report announced on Thursday, coupled with recently announced products, may directly change investor narratives about artificial intelligence, and Adobe is likely to be the main beneficiary. The company's \"extensive data-driven platform and product-led growth should allow it to capture this opportunity,\" analysts said.</p><p>In addition, Baird analyst Rob Oliver maintained Adobe's \"neutral\" rating and raised the target price from $370 to $500;</p><p>Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz maintained Adobe's \"neutral\" rating and raised the target price from $450 to $520;</p><p>Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin maintained Adobe's \"overweight\" rating and raised the target price from $500 to $572;</p><p>Stifel analyst J. Parker Lane maintains Adobe's \"buy\" rating and raises the target price from $400 to $550;</p><p>Bank of America analyst Brad Sills maintained a \"neutral\" rating on Adobe and raised the target price from $480 to $575;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Maintain Adobe's \"overweight\" rating and raise the target price from $525 to $600.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2023-06-16/doc-imyxpany4562344.shtml\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aa7700950dd1f7f41963706d226f8a7","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/ggscyd/2023-06-16/doc-imyxpany4562344.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2343198417","content_text":"由于Adobe Q2业绩超出市场预期、以及上调全年业绩指引，多家华尔街大行均上调对该股目标价。软件服务巨头Adobe周四美股盘后公布了2023财年第二季度财报。由于Adobe Q2业绩超出市场预期、以及上调全年业绩指引，多家华尔街大行均上调对该股目标价。Adobe Q2总营收同比增长10%至48.2亿美元，好于分析师平均预期的47.7亿美元;调整后的每股收益为3.91美元，好于分析师平均预期的3.79美元。此外，Adobe上调了2023财年全年营收和每股收益预期。该公司认为，生成式人工智能(AI)功能软件将刺激市场对其软件需求。该公司预计，全年总营收为192.5亿美元至193.5亿美元(此前预期为192亿美元)，分析师预期为193亿美元;预计调整后的每股收益为15.65美元至15.75美元(此前预期为15.60美元)，分析师预期为15.50美元。长期以来，Adobe一直是面向创意型专业人士的软件销售巨头，该公司正在其产品中添加生成式人工智能功能。Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen在一份声明中表示:“鉴于我们丰富的数据集、基础模型和无处不在的产品界面，Adobe的突破性创新使我们能够引领生成式人工智能的新时代。”以下是各大行对Adobe的看法：巴克莱分析师Saket Kalia予Adobe“持股观望”评级，将目标价由485美元上调至540美元。分析师表示，Adobe股价上涨源于其定价优势，这一优势在今年下半年可能会更加明显。分析师指出，该公司有办法将其生成式AI工具Firefly货币化。此外，考虑到生成式AI的前景和当前的监管环境，收购Figma的交易还没有任何更新可能被视为一个积极的因素。分析师在报告中写道：“Adobe对数字媒体业务净新年度经常性收入(ARR)在第三季度的预期为4.1亿美元，第四季度的隐含预期约为4.6亿美元。即使在不假设Firefly在第四季度会有业绩贡献的情况下，我们也会认为第四季度的预期似乎是保守的。”“虽然我们不确定届时业绩增长能否保持在第二季度的水平，但我们认为该公司设定的业绩指引意味着这种水平能持续下去。”分析师补充称，Adobe有三种方法可以将其生成式AI工具Firefly货币化：使用Creative co-pilot可以提高每用户的平均收入;增加用户粘性，提高用户留存率;通过免费增值模式增加付费用户。分析师表示：“随着FireFly开始感觉是一个更真实的增长机会，我们开始感觉到这种情绪的变化，一些投资者想知道，与Figma的潜在交易是否真的像几个月前担心的那样负面。”瑞银分析师Karl Keirstead维持Adobe“中性”评级，目标价由440美元上调至525美元。分析师指出，Adobe第二季度的整体业绩有所增长，尤其是其核心创意部门的营收和ARR增长强劲，这应该有助于平息投资者的担忧。分析师还乐观地表示，该公司将从生成式AI中受益，尽管该公司似乎更关注应用而不是营收(至少在近期内是这样)。摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss维持Adobe“持股观望”评级，目标价由470美元上调至510美元。分析师表示，Adobe第二季度业绩“令人印象深刻”，并补充称，该公司上调业绩指引“显示出在严峻的宏观环境下的稳健执行力”。不过，分析师也指出，考虑到Figma交易的不确定性，该公司的营收能否重新加速增长仍有待商榷。摩根大通分析师Mark Murphy维持Adobe“中性”评级，目标价由450美元上调至490美元。分析师表示，Adobe第二季度业绩表现出“相对韧性”，第三季度的净新ARR指引略高于预期，2023财年的总营收和净新ARR指引均略有上调。分析师表示，由于短期内可以实现增长，加上宏观上的一些保守性，该公司的定位仍然相对较好。高盛维持Adobe“买入”评级，目标价由480美元上调至550美元。该行分析师表示，Adobe周四公布的第二季度财报加上近期公布的产品，可能会直接改变投资者对人工智能的叙事，而Adobe有可能成为主要受益者。分析师表示，该公司“广泛的数据驱动平台和产品主导的增长应该使其能够抓住这个机会”。此外，Baird分析师Rob Oliver维持Adobe“中性”评级，目标价由370美元上调至500美元;瑞穗分析师Gregg Moskowitz维持Adobe“中性”评级，目标价由450美元上调至520美元;Piper Sandler分析师Brent Bracelin维持Adobe“增持”评级，目标价由500美元上调至572美元;Stifel分析师J. Parker Lane维持Adobe“买入”评级，目标价由400美元上调至550美元;美国银行分析师Brad Sills维持Adobe“中性”评级，目标价由480美元上调至575美元;富国银行维持Adobe“增持”评级，目标价由525美元上调至600美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188140495925296,"gmtCreate":1686958439577,"gmtModify":1686958443110,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188140495925296","repostId":"1165534285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165534285","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1686929433,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165534285?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-16 23:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The AI trend is resurfacing! China's technology assets have skyrocketed around the world! Fund manager: It's by no means just speculation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165534285","media":"券商中国","summary":"以AI（人工智能）为风口的科网股行情，已从A股基金重仓股广泛蔓延到公募基金在港股和美股的持仓上。种种迹象显示，以数字经济、科技互联网为特点的中国资产股票的反弹，在全球范围内都已经实质性地展开几乎无差别","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The market of science and technology stocks with AI (artificial intelligence) as the outlet has widely spread from the heavy holdings of A-share funds to the positions of public funds in Hong Kong stocks and US stocks.</p><p>There are various signs that the rebound of Chinese asset stocks, characterized by the digital economy and the technological Internet, has substantially launched an almost indiscriminate rise around the world. Some fund managers emphasized that although the current AI market covers many listed companies that lack performance and fundamentals, this main line is no longer a purely thematic investment. AI will have a substantial industrial explosion effect in the future. It is judged that generative AI technology is expected to become a catalyst for a new round of technological revolution after computer PCs and mobile Internet, and is expected to bring revolutionary changes to the entire human-computer interaction mode and interaction entrance, social production efficiency, image recognition and other fields.</p><p><strong>US stocks and Chinese concept stocks begin to rise</strong></p><p>In the early morning of June 16, Beijing time, after experiencing an astonishing long-term decline, Chinese concept stocks listed on the U.S. stock market rebounded across the board, especially small-cap Chinese concept stocks that have been neglected for a long time. A-share fund heavy holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300418\">Kunlun Wanwei</a>The controlled stock of Oupeng Browser has fallen for five consecutive years since it was listed on the US stock market in 2018. In the early morning of the 16th, the stock soared again by 11%, which made this Chinese concept stock that affected the holdings of A-share funds, The stock price rose nearly three times in just six months, setting a record high.</p><p>Market Cap Mini<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Similarly, in just two weeks, the stock price of this small variety of Chinese concept stocks rose by more than 40%. In addition, US stock market listed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>, gathering times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EM\">Monster Charge</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Fun shop</a>A number of small and medium-sized digital economy and Internet companies have achieved a strong rebound in their stock prices this month. For example, the stock price of Tuniu, which is mainly engaged in Internet tourism, has increased by more than 60% this month. The indiscriminate rise of U.S. stocks and Chinese concept stocks has greatly benefited the net value of related funds. As a result, the China Concept Internet ETF managed by E Fund achieved a net value rebound of about 8% in just two weeks this month.</p><p><strong>Hong Kong stock funds' heavy holdings become pioneers of rebound</strong></p><p>The rebound in the Hong Kong stock market is also concentrated in the fields of technology Internet and digital economy. In particular, Public Offering of Fund's heavy holdings in Hong Kong stocks have become the vanguard of the rebound. Supported by the sharp rebound of Kuaishou, Meituan and other stocks, the net value increase of China Internet's leading funds managed by China Asset Management has changed from negative to positive during the year. As of June 16, 2023, the net value increase during the year has been approximately 5.91%. It is worth mentioning that, considering that the net value of this fund product with a heavy position in Hong Kong stocks and Internet has increased by 5.86% in the last month, which means that the net value of China Internet's leading hybrid fund has increased during the year, most of which are concentrated in the last one or two weeks.</p><p>Previously, Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Fund, which had a heavy position in Hong Kong stocks and Internet stocks, relied on the \"recovery\" of Hong Kong stocks and Internet stocks in the past two weeks, and its net value quickly turned from its weak performance in the early stage to offensive. The depth of its adjustment of stock prices and the duration of time have made the fund products related to the Internet and digital economy of Hong Kong stocks begin to gain unexpected flexibility after the recovery of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>In the A-share market, many already high-ranking digital economy and technology stocks once again detonated the A-share market after just one month of sideways fluctuations. Kunlun Wanwei, which was heavily held by Haifutong Fund, surged again in intraday trading on June 16. In addition, social security funds and private equity funds have heavy positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300624\">Wondershare Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300288\">Langma Information</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300229\">Torsi</a>The re-activity of related AI stocks greatly shows the recognition of institutional funds for the relevant main market.</p><p><strong>AI investment market is not purely thematic investment</strong></p><p>It is obvious that with the extensive and in-depth application of ChatGPT in multiple scenarios, the imagination space of the digital economy and science and technology stocks with artificial intelligence as a technical factor has been significantly enlarged. The market and investors have given high hopes for AI large models, and industries have intensified their exploration efforts, and AI large models may be entering a historical period of rapid and vigorous development.</p><p><strong>Zhang Xiaoquan, research director of Ping An Fund, believes that AI investment is not just speculation, or operated completely according to thematic investment. AI will bring about revolutionary changes in the technology industry chain and have a positive impact on fundamentals in various fields. In the future, AI may become the main line of long-term investment.</strong></p><p>Jin Xi, a researcher at Huashang Fund, also said that from an industrial perspective, domestic and foreign giants are competing to accelerate the deployment of large AI models, including the establishment of AI research departments and the launch of chat<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, release of AI applications, etc., the long-term upward trend of the overall industry may be relatively clear. Mapped to the current computer sector of the A-share market, although there may be some differences in the direction of AI, the overall observation is still catalyzing. Jin Xi believes that at the current stage, the level of AI technology content is actually not the core factor in changing productivity. Only new tools (i.e. products implemented in application scenarios) can be used to reshape nodes and business processes, and many vertical scenarios can be reshaped. The user habits of the scene make standardization easier, which may be the real improvement of productivity by AI technology. Looking forward to the future, perhaps high-end AI can reshape the industrial scene.</p><p>He pointed out that AI still belongs to the category of information technology industry, and all links in the industrial chain may have a strong head effect. This is because professional scenarios require the accumulation of professional data to optimize model accuracy. Once a product creates a successful case in a certain field, it may receive more and more project orders and bring more data in the future, thereby improving the efficiency of the product, which in turn promotes the growth of project orders, forming a positive feedback effect.</p><p>Based on the above, this also means that AI companies that can achieve commercial success may be more likely to achieve breakthroughs, implementation and realization in AI exploration. Because companies that can achieve commercial success usually have mature cash flow, which can support their continuous R&D investment. However, some start-up companies based on a single AI technical barrier may be helpless when facing application scenarios that require multiple technologies. If they do not master other technologies, it will be difficult to achieve commercialization, and the limitation of commercialization will in turn restrict their investment in new technologies.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market supported by the AI market has also made many fund managers have more expectations for the Hong Kong stock market. Wang Shicong, manager of Southern Hong Kong Growth Fund, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Times that he is currently relatively positive and optimistic about the medium-term dimension of the Hong Kong stock market for two reasons:</p><p><strong>First, the fundamentals of the Chinese economy will be bottom out with a low base in 2022. Second, with the fundamentals of China and the United States showing opposite trends in 23 years, we believe that funds are expected to flow into China quickly.</strong>According to the latest IMF forecast, China is the only country among major economies to accelerate growth in 2023. Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks, which have previously shrunk sharply in liquidity, are the types of Chinese assets that have benefited relatively from the improvement of funds, and are expected to usher in valuations. Repair and return to a reasonable level. As a representative market for the pro-cyclical industry of China's economy, the Hong Kong stock market is superimposed on the fluctuation of foreign capital's confidence in China's long-term growth, which makes the overall market fundamentals, valuation, and liquidity fluctuate greatly. After the resonance, the stock price also fluctuates greatly. Applicable to both cycle and upward cycle. Therefore, considering that the general market cycle is synchronized with the economy, we are relatively positive and optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market in the next 1-2 years.</p><p>Wang Shicong emphasized that he is optimistic about the main line of AI in Hong Kong stocks, and judged that the generative AI technology represented by ChatGPT is expected to become a catalyst for a new round of technological revolution after computer PCs and mobile Internet. Recognition and other fields have brought revolutionary changes. Interactive portals, model capabilities, data precipitation, and application scenarios have become key elements for large model manufacturers. In the future, the fund will dig deep into the entire industry chain at home and abroad, focusing on technologies and applications that can actually be implemented and bring disruptive changes in the industry.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The AI trend is resurfacing! China's technology assets have skyrocketed around the world! Fund manager: It's by no means just speculation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe AI trend is resurfacing! China's technology assets have skyrocketed around the world! Fund manager: It's by no means just speculation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-06-16 23:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The market of science and technology stocks with AI (artificial intelligence) as the outlet has widely spread from the heavy holdings of A-share funds to the positions of public funds in Hong Kong stocks and US stocks.</p><p>There are various signs that the rebound of Chinese asset stocks, characterized by the digital economy and the technological Internet, has substantially launched an almost indiscriminate rise around the world. Some fund managers emphasized that although the current AI market covers many listed companies that lack performance and fundamentals, this main line is no longer a purely thematic investment. AI will have a substantial industrial explosion effect in the future. It is judged that generative AI technology is expected to become a catalyst for a new round of technological revolution after computer PCs and mobile Internet, and is expected to bring revolutionary changes to the entire human-computer interaction mode and interaction entrance, social production efficiency, image recognition and other fields.</p><p><strong>US stocks and Chinese concept stocks begin to rise</strong></p><p>In the early morning of June 16, Beijing time, after experiencing an astonishing long-term decline, Chinese concept stocks listed on the U.S. stock market rebounded across the board, especially small-cap Chinese concept stocks that have been neglected for a long time. A-share fund heavy holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300418\">Kunlun Wanwei</a>The controlled stock of Oupeng Browser has fallen for five consecutive years since it was listed on the US stock market in 2018. In the early morning of the 16th, the stock soared again by 11%, which made this Chinese concept stock that affected the holdings of A-share funds, The stock price rose nearly three times in just six months, setting a record high.</p><p>Market Cap Mini<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Similarly, in just two weeks, the stock price of this small variety of Chinese concept stocks rose by more than 40%. In addition, US stock market listed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>, gathering times,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EM\">Monster Charge</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Fun shop</a>A number of small and medium-sized digital economy and Internet companies have achieved a strong rebound in their stock prices this month. For example, the stock price of Tuniu, which is mainly engaged in Internet tourism, has increased by more than 60% this month. The indiscriminate rise of U.S. stocks and Chinese concept stocks has greatly benefited the net value of related funds. As a result, the China Concept Internet ETF managed by E Fund achieved a net value rebound of about 8% in just two weeks this month.</p><p><strong>Hong Kong stock funds' heavy holdings become pioneers of rebound</strong></p><p>The rebound in the Hong Kong stock market is also concentrated in the fields of technology Internet and digital economy. In particular, Public Offering of Fund's heavy holdings in Hong Kong stocks have become the vanguard of the rebound. Supported by the sharp rebound of Kuaishou, Meituan and other stocks, the net value increase of China Internet's leading funds managed by China Asset Management has changed from negative to positive during the year. As of June 16, 2023, the net value increase during the year has been approximately 5.91%. It is worth mentioning that, considering that the net value of this fund product with a heavy position in Hong Kong stocks and Internet has increased by 5.86% in the last month, which means that the net value of China Internet's leading hybrid fund has increased during the year, most of which are concentrated in the last one or two weeks.</p><p>Previously, Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Fund, which had a heavy position in Hong Kong stocks and Internet stocks, relied on the \"recovery\" of Hong Kong stocks and Internet stocks in the past two weeks, and its net value quickly turned from its weak performance in the early stage to offensive. The depth of its adjustment of stock prices and the duration of time have made the fund products related to the Internet and digital economy of Hong Kong stocks begin to gain unexpected flexibility after the recovery of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>In the A-share market, many already high-ranking digital economy and technology stocks once again detonated the A-share market after just one month of sideways fluctuations. Kunlun Wanwei, which was heavily held by Haifutong Fund, surged again in intraday trading on June 16. In addition, social security funds and private equity funds have heavy positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300624\">Wondershare Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300288\">Langma Information</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300229\">Torsi</a>The re-activity of related AI stocks greatly shows the recognition of institutional funds for the relevant main market.</p><p><strong>AI investment market is not purely thematic investment</strong></p><p>It is obvious that with the extensive and in-depth application of ChatGPT in multiple scenarios, the imagination space of the digital economy and science and technology stocks with artificial intelligence as a technical factor has been significantly enlarged. The market and investors have given high hopes for AI large models, and industries have intensified their exploration efforts, and AI large models may be entering a historical period of rapid and vigorous development.</p><p><strong>Zhang Xiaoquan, research director of Ping An Fund, believes that AI investment is not just speculation, or operated completely according to thematic investment. AI will bring about revolutionary changes in the technology industry chain and have a positive impact on fundamentals in various fields. In the future, AI may become the main line of long-term investment.</strong></p><p>Jin Xi, a researcher at Huashang Fund, also said that from an industrial perspective, domestic and foreign giants are competing to accelerate the deployment of large AI models, including the establishment of AI research departments and the launch of chat<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>, release of AI applications, etc., the long-term upward trend of the overall industry may be relatively clear. Mapped to the current computer sector of the A-share market, although there may be some differences in the direction of AI, the overall observation is still catalyzing. Jin Xi believes that at the current stage, the level of AI technology content is actually not the core factor in changing productivity. Only new tools (i.e. products implemented in application scenarios) can be used to reshape nodes and business processes, and many vertical scenarios can be reshaped. The user habits of the scene make standardization easier, which may be the real improvement of productivity by AI technology. Looking forward to the future, perhaps high-end AI can reshape the industrial scene.</p><p>He pointed out that AI still belongs to the category of information technology industry, and all links in the industrial chain may have a strong head effect. This is because professional scenarios require the accumulation of professional data to optimize model accuracy. Once a product creates a successful case in a certain field, it may receive more and more project orders and bring more data in the future, thereby improving the efficiency of the product, which in turn promotes the growth of project orders, forming a positive feedback effect.</p><p>Based on the above, this also means that AI companies that can achieve commercial success may be more likely to achieve breakthroughs, implementation and realization in AI exploration. Because companies that can achieve commercial success usually have mature cash flow, which can support their continuous R&D investment. However, some start-up companies based on a single AI technical barrier may be helpless when facing application scenarios that require multiple technologies. If they do not master other technologies, it will be difficult to achieve commercialization, and the limitation of commercialization will in turn restrict their investment in new technologies.</p><p>The Hong Kong stock market supported by the AI market has also made many fund managers have more expectations for the Hong Kong stock market. Wang Shicong, manager of Southern Hong Kong Growth Fund, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Times that he is currently relatively positive and optimistic about the medium-term dimension of the Hong Kong stock market for two reasons:</p><p><strong>First, the fundamentals of the Chinese economy will be bottom out with a low base in 2022. Second, with the fundamentals of China and the United States showing opposite trends in 23 years, we believe that funds are expected to flow into China quickly.</strong>According to the latest IMF forecast, China is the only country among major economies to accelerate growth in 2023. Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks, which have previously shrunk sharply in liquidity, are the types of Chinese assets that have benefited relatively from the improvement of funds, and are expected to usher in valuations. Repair and return to a reasonable level. As a representative market for the pro-cyclical industry of China's economy, the Hong Kong stock market is superimposed on the fluctuation of foreign capital's confidence in China's long-term growth, which makes the overall market fundamentals, valuation, and liquidity fluctuate greatly. After the resonance, the stock price also fluctuates greatly. Applicable to both cycle and upward cycle. Therefore, considering that the general market cycle is synchronized with the economy, we are relatively positive and optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market in the next 1-2 years.</p><p>Wang Shicong emphasized that he is optimistic about the main line of AI in Hong Kong stocks, and judged that the generative AI technology represented by ChatGPT is expected to become a catalyst for a new round of technological revolution after computer PCs and mobile Internet. Recognition and other fields have brought revolutionary changes. Interactive portals, model capabilities, data precipitation, and application scenarios have become key elements for large model manufacturers. In the future, the fund will dig deep into the entire industry chain at home and abroad, focusing on technologies and applications that can actually be implemented and bring disruptive changes in the industry.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3769dd26365af1bced97b5af7814b9e6","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165534285","content_text":"以AI（人工智能）为风口的科网股行情，已从A股基金重仓股广泛蔓延到公募基金在港股和美股的持仓上。种种迹象显示，以数字经济、科技互联网为特点的中国资产股票的反弹，在全球范围内都已经实质性地展开几乎无差别的上涨行情，部分基金经理强调，当下的AI行情尽管覆盖到许多缺乏业绩和基本面的上市公司，但该主线已非单纯的主题投资，AI后续具有实质性的产业爆发效果，判断生成式AI技术有望成为继电脑PC、移动互联网之后新一轮科技革命的催化剂，有望给整个人机交互方式和交互入口、社会生产效率、图像识别等领域带来革命性变化。美股中概股开始崛起北京时间6月16日凌晨，在经历惊人的长期下跌后，美股上市的中概股全线展开了反弹，尤其以长期无人问津的小市值中概股股票为反弹的最核心。A股基金重仓股昆仑万维控股的欧朋浏览器股票，自2018年登陆美股上市后，连续下跌五年之久，而在16日凌晨，该股再度暴涨11%，这使得这只影响A股基金持仓的中概股，在短短六个月内股价上涨接近3倍，创下股价历史新高。市值迷你的迅雷同样如此，在短短两周时间，这只中概股小品种的股价涨幅就超过了40%。此外，美股上市的虎牙、爱奇艺、途牛、欢聚时代、怪兽充电、趣店等一批中小市值数字经济、互联网公司在本月内都实现了股价的强劲反弹，如主营互联网旅游的途牛本月股价涨幅超过了60%。美股中概股的无差别的上涨，令相关基金净值获益匪浅，易方达管理的中概互联ETF因此在本月短短两周时间内收获约8%的净值反弹。港股基金重仓股成反弹先锋港股市场的反弹行情也集中出现在科技互联网、数字经济领域，尤其是公募基金在港股的重仓股成为反弹的急先锋。在快手、美团等股票的凌厉反弹支持下，华夏基金管理的华夏互联网龙头基金年内净值涨幅由负归正，截至2023年6月16日，年内净值涨幅约5.91%。值得一提的是，考虑到该只重仓港股互联网的基金产品，其净值最近一个月内的涨幅为5.86%，这意味着华夏互联网龙头混合基金的年内净值上涨，大部分集中在最近的一两周时间。此前，重仓港股互联网的前海开源沪港深基金，凭借最近两周时间港股互联网股票的“复苏”，其净值也由前期的弱势表现迅速转为进攻性，这显示出超跌严重的港股因其调整的股价深度，以及持续的时间长度，使得重仓港股互联网和数字经济的相关基金产品，在港股复苏后开始获得意想不到的弹性。在A股市场，许多本已高高在上的数字经济与科网股，在短短一个月的横盘震荡下，再度引爆A股市场，海富通基金重仓的昆仑万维在6月16日盘中再度暴涨，此外，社保基金、私募基金重仓的万兴科技、朗玛信息、拓尔思等相关AI股票的再度活跃，极大地显示出机构资金对相关主线行情的认可。AI投资行情并非纯主题投资显而易见的是，伴随ChatGPT在多场景的广泛深入应用，以人工智能为技术因子的数字经济、科网股的想象空间得到显著放大，市场、投资者对AI大模型给予了厚望，行业间纷纷加大探索力度，AI大模型或许正进入快速蓬勃发展的历史时期。平安基金研究总监张晓泉认为AI投资并非单纯的炒一把，或完全按照主题投资进行操作，AI将在科技产业链上产生革命性的变化，并对各个领域产生基本面的积极影响，未来AI可能成为长期的投资主线。华商基金研究员金曦也表示，站在产业视角，国内外巨头竞相加速布局AI大模型领域，包括成立AI研究部门、推出聊天机器人、发布AI应用等，整体产业的长期向上趋势可能是较为明确的。映射至当前A股市场计算机大板块中，虽然AI 的方向可能会存在一些分歧，但整体观察依然催化不断。金曦认为，站在当前阶段，AI技术含量的高低，其实不是改变生产力的核心因素，唯有通过新的工具（即在应用场景落地的产品）来重塑节点和业务流程，重塑很多垂直场景的用户习惯，使标准化做得更加容易，可能才是AI技术对生产力的真正提升。前瞻未来，也许高阶的AI可以重塑产业场景。他指出，AI依然属于信息技术行业的范畴，产业链各环节可能都会产生较强的头部效应。这是因为，专业场景需要专业数据的积累，以此来优化模型准确率。一旦某项产品在某一领域打造出成功案例后，后续可能会收到越来越多的项目订单，并带来更多的数据，从而提升产品的效率，反过来再推动项目订单的增长，形成正反馈效应。基于上述所言，这也意味着能够取得商业化成功的AI公司，或许更容易在AI探索上取得突破、落地和变现。因为能够取得商业化成功的公司通常有着成熟的现金流，可以支撑其持续的研发投入。而一些基于单一AI技术壁垒的初创公司，面向需要多元技术的应用场景时可能会束手无策，如果没有掌握其他技术，很难实现商业化，商业化的受限反过来又会制约其进行新技术的投入。而AI行情所支持的港股科网股行情也让许多基金经理，对港股行情开始充满更多期待。南方香港成长基金经理王士聪接受证券时报记者采访时表示，目前对港股市场的中期维度相对积极乐观，有两点原因：第一，中国经济基本面在2022年低基数情况下触底反弹。第二，随着中美基本面在23年呈相反走势，我们认为资金面有望快速流入中国。按照IMF最新预测，中国是主要经济体中，2023年唯一加速增长的国家，之前流动性急剧收缩的港股、中概股是资金面改善情况下，相对受益的中国资产类型，有望迎来估值修复，回归到合理水平。港股市场作为中国经济顺周期行业的代表市场，叠加外资对于中国长期增长信心的波动，使得整体市场基本面、估值、流动性波动均较大，共振后股价也出现较大波动，这在下行周期和上行周期均适用。因此，考虑到市场大体周期与经济同步，我们对未来1-2年港股市场表示相对积极乐观。王士聪强调看好港股的AI主线，判断ChatGPT为代表的生成式AI技术有望成为继电脑PC、移动互联网之后新一轮科技革命的催化剂，有望给整个人机交互方式和交互入口、社会生产效率、图像识别等领域带来革命性变化，交互入口、模型能力、数据沉淀、应用场景成为大模型厂商的关键要素，未来基金将深挖海内外整个产业链，重点关注能够实际落地、能带来行业颠覆式变革的技术和应用，全产业覆盖、聚焦大机会、保持高度追踪，并关注对半导体硬件端的影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186309392920720,"gmtCreate":1686525111197,"gmtModify":1686525114810,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186309392920720","repostId":"2342206563","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2342206563","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1686403014,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2342206563?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-10 21:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"U.S. bond yields have \"peaked\"? HSBC: It's true this time!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2342206563","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"汇丰认为，如果经济衰退发生，下一个重大政策举措更有可能是降息，这也意味着实际收益率或继续下降。汇丰认为美联储将在2024年之前降息。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As markets bet on the Fed skipping rate hike in June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Confirm that long-term U.S. bond yields have peaked.</p><p>Earlier this week, Steven Majo, head of global fixed income research at HSBC, and Lawrence Dye, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at the company, jointly released a research report saying,<strong>U.S. bond yields peaked in October last year.</strong>The 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields reached 4.24% and 4.38% respectively. The chart drawn by HSBC shows that,<strong>10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries have continued to decline since October.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a16110d6749ed9561be28c486107db\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"504\"/></p><p>HSBC said in the report:</p><p>Global fixed-income markets were in the midst of a \"perfect storm\" at the time, still grappling with shocks from the UK bond market and soaring U.S. inflation, while investors expected China's reopening to boost the economy. As HSBC pointed out, the global bond market at that time was in a turbulent time. Former British Prime Minister Truss's budget triggered a storm in the bond market. At the end of October, the 10-year British bond yield soared by about 150 basis points from mid-September. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is in the most aggressive rate hike cycle in more than 40 years, with a sharp rate hike of 75 basis points in a row.</p><p>Given that (the Fed) has had five rate hike since the yield peaked on October 24, 2022,<strong>We think the resilience of long-term U.S. debt is impressive</strong>； Rate hike was 75 basis points in November, rate hike was 50 basis points in December, and the next three rate hike were 25 basis points. (In five months) the Federal Reserve has a total rate hike of 200 basis points, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield is still 50 basis points lower.<strong>HSBC believes that behind the peak of yields is actually a reversal of fundamentals.</strong></p><p>The bank found that long-term yields are often limited by long-term trends in GDP, for example, real yields are often smaller than GDP growth rates.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b7003d2cd31389176f03b6679b9447d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"487\"/></p><p>HSBC believes that since the start of this round of rate hike cycle, the Federal Reserve has rate hike by 500 basis points, and may further rate hike or push the United States into recession. In other words,<strong>If a recession occurs, the next major policy move is more likely to be a rate cut. This also means that the real yield may continue to decline.</strong></p><p>HSBC said this also explains the significant inversion between Federal Funds rate and the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, as well as the inversion between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields.</p><p>Observing the performance of the previous cyclical yield curve in rate hike, HSBC found that:</p><p>The 2-year fed funds spread typically enters an equilibrium reversal when investors expect the next big move in the policy rate to be a rate cut. As the Fed begins to ease policy, the inversion usually intensifies further. Once the fund rate reaches an accommodative level,<strong>This part of the yield curve could be sloping upwards.</strong>Given that the Fed expects a neutral rate of 2.5%, the yield curve will have a positive slope as long as the interest rate is less than that. We found that the long end of the curve moved ahead of schedule, and noted that the 10/30-year U.S. bond yield normalized again before the 2/10-year U.S. bond yield.<strong>The 2/10-year U.S. Treasury inversion also establishes an equilibrium level, and this spread tends to be more stable when the Fed is in easing mode.</strong>When the rate hike cycle turns, both 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields may decline significantly relative to their initial levels. But when the funds rate is not expected to rise to very accommodative levels, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield level may be more sticky, which is what current consensus forecasts suggest. The Fed may skip June, rate hike at July meeting, which has largely been priced in by the market<strong>。 HSBC pointed out that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 in any case and be consistent with its dot plot.</strong></p><p>However, then if the forward curve has priced in this expectation, how can future yields fall?</p><p>HSBC pointed out that the current yield reflects investor risk aversion. U.S. bonds due on December 15, 2025 (coupon rate 4%)-a representative of the 2-year benchmark U.S. bond at the end of the year,<strong>The current yield is 4.25%, 100 basis points above the Federal Funds rate cap.</strong></p><p>U.S. bond yields are expected to rise by about 20 basis points without the Fed easing policy, but in the case of easing,<strong>Yields could fall by at least 50 basis points, depending on the magnitude and speed of rate cuts.</strong></p><p>HSBC believes that if the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing, the Federal Reserve may issue a rate hike of 25 basis points in July, but under the hypothetical scenario of a hard landing, it may need to cut interest rates significantly.</p><p>As of Friday's close, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly to 3.745%. This compares to a median forecast of 3.64% and 3.37% at the end of 2023 aggregated by Forward and Bloomberg, respectively,<strong>It was about 100 basis points higher than HSBC's forecast.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. bond yields have \"peaked\"? HSBC: It's true this time!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. bond yields have \"peaked\"? HSBC: It's true this time!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-10 21:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As markets bet on the Fed skipping rate hike in June,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Confirm that long-term U.S. bond yields have peaked.</p><p>Earlier this week, Steven Majo, head of global fixed income research at HSBC, and Lawrence Dye, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at the company, jointly released a research report saying,<strong>U.S. bond yields peaked in October last year.</strong>The 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields reached 4.24% and 4.38% respectively. The chart drawn by HSBC shows that,<strong>10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries have continued to decline since October.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a16110d6749ed9561be28c486107db\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"504\"/></p><p>HSBC said in the report:</p><p>Global fixed-income markets were in the midst of a \"perfect storm\" at the time, still grappling with shocks from the UK bond market and soaring U.S. inflation, while investors expected China's reopening to boost the economy. As HSBC pointed out, the global bond market at that time was in a turbulent time. Former British Prime Minister Truss's budget triggered a storm in the bond market. At the end of October, the 10-year British bond yield soared by about 150 basis points from mid-September. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is in the most aggressive rate hike cycle in more than 40 years, with a sharp rate hike of 75 basis points in a row.</p><p>Given that (the Fed) has had five rate hike since the yield peaked on October 24, 2022,<strong>We think the resilience of long-term U.S. debt is impressive</strong>； Rate hike was 75 basis points in November, rate hike was 50 basis points in December, and the next three rate hike were 25 basis points. (In five months) the Federal Reserve has a total rate hike of 200 basis points, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield is still 50 basis points lower.<strong>HSBC believes that behind the peak of yields is actually a reversal of fundamentals.</strong></p><p>The bank found that long-term yields are often limited by long-term trends in GDP, for example, real yields are often smaller than GDP growth rates.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b7003d2cd31389176f03b6679b9447d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"487\"/></p><p>HSBC believes that since the start of this round of rate hike cycle, the Federal Reserve has rate hike by 500 basis points, and may further rate hike or push the United States into recession. In other words,<strong>If a recession occurs, the next major policy move is more likely to be a rate cut. This also means that the real yield may continue to decline.</strong></p><p>HSBC said this also explains the significant inversion between Federal Funds rate and the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, as well as the inversion between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields.</p><p>Observing the performance of the previous cyclical yield curve in rate hike, HSBC found that:</p><p>The 2-year fed funds spread typically enters an equilibrium reversal when investors expect the next big move in the policy rate to be a rate cut. As the Fed begins to ease policy, the inversion usually intensifies further. Once the fund rate reaches an accommodative level,<strong>This part of the yield curve could be sloping upwards.</strong>Given that the Fed expects a neutral rate of 2.5%, the yield curve will have a positive slope as long as the interest rate is less than that. We found that the long end of the curve moved ahead of schedule, and noted that the 10/30-year U.S. bond yield normalized again before the 2/10-year U.S. bond yield.<strong>The 2/10-year U.S. Treasury inversion also establishes an equilibrium level, and this spread tends to be more stable when the Fed is in easing mode.</strong>When the rate hike cycle turns, both 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields may decline significantly relative to their initial levels. But when the funds rate is not expected to rise to very accommodative levels, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield level may be more sticky, which is what current consensus forecasts suggest. The Fed may skip June, rate hike at July meeting, which has largely been priced in by the market<strong>。 HSBC pointed out that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024 in any case and be consistent with its dot plot.</strong></p><p>However, then if the forward curve has priced in this expectation, how can future yields fall?</p><p>HSBC pointed out that the current yield reflects investor risk aversion. U.S. bonds due on December 15, 2025 (coupon rate 4%)-a representative of the 2-year benchmark U.S. bond at the end of the year,<strong>The current yield is 4.25%, 100 basis points above the Federal Funds rate cap.</strong></p><p>U.S. bond yields are expected to rise by about 20 basis points without the Fed easing policy, but in the case of easing,<strong>Yields could fall by at least 50 basis points, depending on the magnitude and speed of rate cuts.</strong></p><p>HSBC believes that if the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing, the Federal Reserve may issue a rate hike of 25 basis points in July, but under the hypothetical scenario of a hard landing, it may need to cut interest rates significantly.</p><p>As of Friday's close, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly to 3.745%. This compares to a median forecast of 3.64% and 3.37% at the end of 2023 aggregated by Forward and Bloomberg, respectively,<strong>It was about 100 basis points higher than HSBC's forecast.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3690818\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caec151912b33c61e8599a6f595255eb","relate_stocks":{"BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","HSBC":"汇丰","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","BK4521":"英国银行股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3690818","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2342206563","content_text":"市场押注美联储6月跳过加息之际，汇丰确认，长期美债收益率已经见顶。本周稍早前，汇丰全球固收研究主管Steven Majo和公司美国利率策略主管Lawrence Dye联合发布研究报告称，美债收益率在去年10月已达到峰值，10年期和30年期美债收益率分别达到4.24%和4.38%。汇丰绘制的图表显示，10年期和30年期美债自10月以来持续下降。汇丰在报告中表示：当时全球固收市场正处于一场“完美风暴”之中，仍在应对英国债市带来的冲击和飙升的美国通胀，同时投资者预计中国的重新开放将提振经济。正如汇丰指出，当时的全球债市正值风雨飘摇之际。英国前首相特拉斯的预算案引发债市风暴，10月底，10年期英债收益率从9月中旬飙升约150个基点。美国方面，美联储正处于四十余年来最激进的加息周期，连续大幅加息75基点。鉴于（美联储）自2022年10月24日收益率见顶以来已经加息五次，我们认为长期美债的韧性令人印象深刻；11月加息75基点、12月加息50基点，接下来三次加息25基点。 （五个月里）美联储共加息200个基点，10年期美债收益率仍低50个基点。汇丰认为，收益率见顶的背后，实际上是基本面的逆转。该行发现，长期收益率往往受到GDP长期趋势的限制，比如实际收益率往往小于GDP的增速。汇丰认为，本轮加息周期开启以来，美联储已加息500个基点，并可能进一步加息，或使美国步入衰退。也就是说，如果经济衰退发生，下一个重大政策举措更有可能是降息。这也意味着实际收益率或继续下降。汇丰表示，这也解释了联邦基金利率与两年期美债收益率之间的显著倒挂，以及2年期和10年期美债收益率的倒挂。观察此前加息周期收益率曲线的表现，汇丰发现：当投资者预计政策利率的下一个大动作是降息时，2年期联邦基金息差通常会进入均衡反转。随着美联储开始放松政策，倒挂通常会进一步加剧。 一旦基金利率达到宽松水平，这部分收益率曲线可能会向上倾斜。 鉴于美联储对中性利率的预期为2.5%，利率只要小于这一数字，收益率曲线都会出现正斜率。 我们发现曲线的长端提前移动，并注意到 10/30年期美债在2/10年期美债收益率此前再次正常化。2/10年期美债倒挂也建立了一个均衡水平，当美联储处于宽松模式时，这种利差往往更加稳定。 当加息周期出现转折时，2年期和10年期美债收益率都可能相对于刚开始的水平显着下降。 但当基金利率预计不会升至非常宽松的水平时，10年期美债收益率水平可能会更具粘性，这正是目前的普遍预测所暗示的。美联储可能会跳过6月，在7月的会议上加息，这在很大程度上已被市场定价。汇丰指出，无论如何，美联储将在2024年降息，并且与其点阵图保持一致。不过，那么如果远期曲线已经消化了这一预期，那么未来收益率怎么会下降呢？汇丰指出，目前的收益率反映了投资者的避险情绪。将于2025年12月15日到期的美债（票面利率为 4%）——年底2年期基准美债的代表，目前收益率为4.25%，高于联邦基金利率上限100个基点。在美联储不放宽政策的情况下，美债收益率预计将上升约20基点，但在宽松的情况下，收益率可能下降至少50个基点，具体取决于降息的幅度和速度。汇丰认为，如果美国经济实现软着陆，美联储或在7月加息25个基点，但硬着陆的假设情景下，可能会需要大幅下调利率。截止周五收盘，10年期美债收益率小幅走高，报3.745%。相比之下， Forward和彭博汇总的2023年底的预测中值分别为3.64%和3.37%，高于汇丰预测约100个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLT":0.9,"HSBC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186309656957032,"gmtCreate":1686525035900,"gmtModify":1686525039248,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186309656957032","repostId":"2342526556","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2342526556","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1686442589,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2342526556?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-11 08:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs: OPEC production cuts will push crude oil prices to $90 a barrel this year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2342526556","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，在沙特阿拉伯决定减产后，原油价格未能维持最初的升势，但高盛的Jeff Currie认为，此举最终将推动原油库存减少，使油价在今年年底前升至90美元/桶。Currie表示:“由于欧佩克减产，特别是在第三和第四季度，你将看到大量的现货库存减少，(这将)把油价推到90美元/桶。”此外，关注基本面的花旗分析师表示，沙特的减产不太可能将油价维持在每桶80美元或90美元的高位，这表明到年底需求低迷，而非欧佩克供应将走强。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP learned that after Saudi Arabia decided to cut production, crude oil prices failed to maintain their initial upward trend, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Jeff Currie believes that this move will eventually drive down crude oil inventories, bringing oil prices to $90/barrel by the end of this year.</p><p>\"Due to OPEC production cuts, especially in the third and fourth quarters, you will see a large reduction in spot inventories, (which will) push oil prices to $90 a barrel,\" Currie said.</p><p>Currie said rising interest rates have made storing oil too expensive and investor interest may not return until inventories start to decline.</p><p>In addition, Citi analysts who focus on fundamentals said that Saudi production cuts are unlikely to keep oil prices at a high of $80 or $90 a barrel, suggesting sluggish demand by the end of the year rather than stronger non-OPEC supply.</p><p>Separately, Oanda's Edward Moya said: \"Next week will be an important time for oil prices as interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China will determine the short-term outlook for the global economy.\"</p><p>This week, crude oil prices fell for the second consecutive week. As of press time, WTI crude oil futures fell 1.32% to US $70.35/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.21% to US $75.04/barrel, which was the highest in the past eight weeks. Sixth weekly decline.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices both fell by more than $3/barrel on Thursday, following reports that the United States and Iran are reaching a nuclear deal that will bring more supply. However, oil prices recovered some of their lost ground after the two countries denied the agreement.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>The ministry said late Friday that it planned to purchase 3 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at an average price of about $73 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Energy also said it has launched a new tender for another 3 million barrels to be delivered to SPR's Big Hill site in Texas in September.</p><p>It is worth noting that despite the decline in crude oil prices, the energy sector ushered in a rise.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLE\">SPDR Energy Index ETF</a>It rose 1.8% in a week, with the top five gainers including Aemetis (AMTX.US), which rose 34.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPRT\">Westport Fuel</a>Up 28.9%, Clean Energy Technologies (CETY.US) up 23.4%, Cactus (WHD.US) up 14.1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">Petrobras</a>-Prefer (PBR.A.US) rose 13.6%.</p><p>Additionally, the 4 biggest decliners in the Energy and Natural Resources sector over the past 5 days are: U.S. Goldmining (USGO.US) fell 17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AUMN\">Gold mining industry</a>(AUMN.US) is down 13.9%, Eco Wave Power (WAVE.US) is down 12.8%, and Battalion Oil (BATL.US) is down 12%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs: OPEC production cuts will push crude oil prices to $90 a barrel this year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs: OPEC production cuts will push crude oil prices to $90 a barrel this year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-11 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP learned that after Saudi Arabia decided to cut production, crude oil prices failed to maintain their initial upward trend, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Jeff Currie believes that this move will eventually drive down crude oil inventories, bringing oil prices to $90/barrel by the end of this year.</p><p>\"Due to OPEC production cuts, especially in the third and fourth quarters, you will see a large reduction in spot inventories, (which will) push oil prices to $90 a barrel,\" Currie said.</p><p>Currie said rising interest rates have made storing oil too expensive and investor interest may not return until inventories start to decline.</p><p>In addition, Citi analysts who focus on fundamentals said that Saudi production cuts are unlikely to keep oil prices at a high of $80 or $90 a barrel, suggesting sluggish demand by the end of the year rather than stronger non-OPEC supply.</p><p>Separately, Oanda's Edward Moya said: \"Next week will be an important time for oil prices as interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China will determine the short-term outlook for the global economy.\"</p><p>This week, crude oil prices fell for the second consecutive week. As of press time, WTI crude oil futures fell 1.32% to US $70.35/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.21% to US $75.04/barrel, which was the highest in the past eight weeks. Sixth weekly decline.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices both fell by more than $3/barrel on Thursday, following reports that the United States and Iran are reaching a nuclear deal that will bring more supply. However, oil prices recovered some of their lost ground after the two countries denied the agreement.</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>The ministry said late Friday that it planned to purchase 3 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at an average price of about $73 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Energy also said it has launched a new tender for another 3 million barrels to be delivered to SPR's Big Hill site in Texas in September.</p><p>It is worth noting that despite the decline in crude oil prices, the energy sector ushered in a rise.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLE\">SPDR Energy Index ETF</a>It rose 1.8% in a week, with the top five gainers including Aemetis (AMTX.US), which rose 34.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPRT\">Westport Fuel</a>Up 28.9%, Clean Energy Technologies (CETY.US) up 23.4%, Cactus (WHD.US) up 14.1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">Petrobras</a>-Prefer (PBR.A.US) rose 13.6%.</p><p>Additionally, the 4 biggest decliners in the Energy and Natural Resources sector over the past 5 days are: U.S. Goldmining (USGO.US) fell 17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AUMN\">Gold mining industry</a>(AUMN.US) is down 13.9%, Eco Wave Power (WAVE.US) is down 12.8%, and Battalion Oil (BATL.US) is down 12%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/943827.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4a2187b267c2b09c55779e0a8af4ab","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/943827.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2342526556","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，在沙特阿拉伯决定减产后，原油价格未能维持最初的升势，但高盛的Jeff Currie认为，此举最终将推动原油库存减少，使油价在今年年底前升至90美元/桶。Currie表示:“由于欧佩克减产，特别是在第三和第四季度，你将看到大量的现货库存减少，(这将)把油价推到90美元/桶。”Currie称，利率上升使得储存石油的成本过高，在库存开始下降之前，投资者的兴趣可能不会恢复。此外，关注基本面的花旗分析师表示，沙特的减产不太可能将油价维持在每桶80美元或90美元的高位，这表明到年底需求低迷，而非欧佩克供应将走强。另外，Oanda的Edward Moya表示：\"由于美联储、欧洲央行和中国央行的利率决定将决定全球经济的短期前景，因此下周将是油价的重要时期。\"本周，原油价格连续第二周下跌，截至发稿，WTI原油期货下跌1.32%，至70.35美元/桶，布伦特原油期货下跌1.21%，报75.04美元/桶，这是过去8周以来的第6周下跌。值得一提的是，周四，WTI原油和布伦特原油价格均下跌逾3美元/桶，此前有报道称，美国和伊朗正在达成一项核协议，该协议将带来更多供应。然而，在两国否认该协议后，油价收复了部分失地。此外，美国能源部周五晚些时候表示，计划购买300万桶原油作为战略石油储备，平均价格约为73美元/桶。美国能源部还表示，其已经启动了另外300万桶的新招标，将于9月交付到德克萨斯州的SPR的Big Hill站点。值得注意的是，尽管原油价格下跌，但能源板块却迎来上涨，SPDR能源指数ETF一周内上涨了1.8%，其中涨幅前五名的包括Aemetis(AMTX.US)上涨了34.7%，西港燃料上涨了28.9%，Clean Energy Technologies(CETY.US)上涨了23.4%，Cactus(WHD.US)上涨了14.1%，巴西石油公司-Prefer(PBR.A.US)上涨了13.6%。此外，在过去5天里，能源和自然资源板块跌幅最大的4只股票是：U.S. Goldmining(USGO.US)下跌了17%， 黄金矿业(AUMN.US)下跌了13.9%，Eco Wave Power(WAVE.US)下跌了12.8%，Battalion Oil(BATL.US)下跌了12%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186309522153576,"gmtCreate":1686525002988,"gmtModify":1686525005509,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/186309522153576","repostId":"2342696765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183197555306616,"gmtCreate":1685747138836,"gmtModify":1685747142256,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183197555306616","repostId":"1162636330","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162636330","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1685711670,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162636330?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-02 21:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Inflation expectations may be the reason for rate hike in June, but it may be a contrarian indicator!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162636330","media":"金十数据","summary":"如果美联储继续加息，而不是暂停，罪魁祸首之一可能正是继续上升的通胀预期。但是，这背后的逻辑可能竟是错的……过去一年，整体通胀水平有所下降，但消费者对未来通胀的预期并没有随之回落。相反，根据密歇根大学消","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If the Fed continues its rate hike, rather than its pause, one of the chief culprits may be none other than inflation expectations that continue to rise. However, the logic behind this may be wrong...<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The overall level of inflation has declined over the past year, but consumer expectations for future inflation have not fallen with it. Instead, according to the University of Michigan consumer survey,<strong>Five-year inflation expectations have been slowly rising in recent months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the survey, consumers' median expectation for the annual inflation rate in the next five years reached 3.1%, the highest level since 2008, and the average expectation was the highest level since the mid-1990s.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Rising inflation expectations worry many people who believe they will be self-fulfilling</strong>That is to say, if consumers expect high inflation to continue in the future, then their spending behavior will further push up inflation. If the Fed decides at its mid-June meeting<strong>One of the chief culprits in continuing the rate hike, rather than pressing the \"pause\" button, may be none other than consumers' stubbornly high inflation expectations.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, financial journalist Mark Hulbert believes that this theory is not supported by sufficient historical evidence. He said,<strong>In the past few decades, consumer inflation expectations have often been an inverse indicator.</strong>When inflation expectations are higher than average inflation, inflation in the subsequent five years is lower than average, and vice versa.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb32897dd58323a320f26f8ff71c237\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"629\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The figure above illustrates this inverse relationship. The figure compares the actual monthly inflation with the inflation expectation five years ago. When the green line is positive, it means that the actual inflation is proportional to the inflation expectation; When the green line is negative, the two are inversely proportional. The last time it was proportional was in the mid-1990s, and since then,<strong>The two have almost always been negatively correlated, and have reached the lowest negative value in the last five years.</strong>While this cannot be a reason to celebrate rising inflation expectations, it at least shows that we should not worry too much about future inflation performance.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, Hulbert also uses the 5-year breakeven inflation rate (the difference between the 5-year Treasury Bond nominal yield and the 5-year TIPS yield), short-term and long-term professional inflation forecasts conducted quarterly by the Philadelphia Fed, and the inflation expectation model released by the Cleveland Fed to test. The test covers data from 2003 to the present,<strong>The best assessment of the relationship between real inflation and inflation expectations is found in the Cleveland Fed model.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The model currently projects inflation at an annualized rate of 2.2% over the next five years,</strong>Enough to get close to the Fed's 2% inflation target. If this prediction is accurate,<strong>Enough to keep the Fed from rate hike at its June meeting.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation expectations may be the reason for rate hike in June, but it may be a contrarian indicator!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation expectations may be the reason for rate hike in June, but it may be a contrarian indicator!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-02 21:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If the Fed continues its rate hike, rather than its pause, one of the chief culprits may be none other than inflation expectations that continue to rise. However, the logic behind this may be wrong...<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The overall level of inflation has declined over the past year, but consumer expectations for future inflation have not fallen with it. Instead, according to the University of Michigan consumer survey,<strong>Five-year inflation expectations have been slowly rising in recent months.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the survey, consumers' median expectation for the annual inflation rate in the next five years reached 3.1%, the highest level since 2008, and the average expectation was the highest level since the mid-1990s.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Rising inflation expectations worry many people who believe they will be self-fulfilling</strong>That is to say, if consumers expect high inflation to continue in the future, then their spending behavior will further push up inflation. If the Fed decides at its mid-June meeting<strong>One of the chief culprits in continuing the rate hike, rather than pressing the \"pause\" button, may be none other than consumers' stubbornly high inflation expectations.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, financial journalist Mark Hulbert believes that this theory is not supported by sufficient historical evidence. He said,<strong>In the past few decades, consumer inflation expectations have often been an inverse indicator.</strong>When inflation expectations are higher than average inflation, inflation in the subsequent five years is lower than average, and vice versa.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb32897dd58323a320f26f8ff71c237\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"629\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The figure above illustrates this inverse relationship. The figure compares the actual monthly inflation with the inflation expectation five years ago. When the green line is positive, it means that the actual inflation is proportional to the inflation expectation; When the green line is negative, the two are inversely proportional. The last time it was proportional was in the mid-1990s, and since then,<strong>The two have almost always been negatively correlated, and have reached the lowest negative value in the last five years.</strong>While this cannot be a reason to celebrate rising inflation expectations, it at least shows that we should not worry too much about future inflation performance.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, Hulbert also uses the 5-year breakeven inflation rate (the difference between the 5-year Treasury Bond nominal yield and the 5-year TIPS yield), short-term and long-term professional inflation forecasts conducted quarterly by the Philadelphia Fed, and the inflation expectation model released by the Cleveland Fed to test. The test covers data from 2003 to the present,<strong>The best assessment of the relationship between real inflation and inflation expectations is found in the Cleveland Fed model.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The model currently projects inflation at an annualized rate of 2.2% over the next five years,</strong>Enough to get close to the Fed's 2% inflation target. If this prediction is accurate,<strong>Enough to keep the Fed from rate hike at its June meeting.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/114137\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/114137","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162636330","content_text":"如果美联储继续加息，而不是暂停，罪魁祸首之一可能正是继续上升的通胀预期。但是，这背后的逻辑可能竟是错的……过去一年，整体通胀水平有所下降，但消费者对未来通胀的预期并没有随之回落。相反，根据密歇根大学消费者调查，近几个月的五年通胀预期一直在缓慢上升。调查显示，消费者对未来五年通胀年率的预期中值达到3.1%，自2008年以来最高水平，预期均值则是自1990年代中期以来的最高水平。通胀预期上升让很多人感到担忧，他们认为通胀预期会自我应验，也就是说，如果消费者预期未来继续存在高通胀，那么他们的消费行为将进一步推高通胀。如果美联储在6月中旬的会议上决定继续加息，而不是按下“暂停”按钮，罪魁祸首之一可能正是消费者居高不下的通胀预期。然而，财经记者Mark Hulbert却认为，这一理论却并没有得到足够的历史证据支撑。他表示，过去几十年中，消费者的通胀预期反而往往是一个反向指标，当通胀预期高于平均通胀水平时，随后五年的通胀却低于平均水平，反之亦然。上图就说明了这种反比关系。图中对比了每月实际通胀与5年前的通胀预期，当绿色线处于正值时，说明实际通胀与通胀预期呈正比；绿线处于负值时，两者成反比。上一次呈正比是在20世纪90年代中期，从那以后，两者几乎一直是负相关，并且在最近五年达到了最低的负值。虽然这不能成为庆祝通胀预期上升的理由，但至少说明不应该对未来通胀表现过于担忧。另外，Hulbert还用5年盈亏平衡通胀率（5年期国债名义收益率与5年期TIPS收益率之差）、费城联储每季度进行的短期和长期专业通胀预测以及克利夫兰联储发布的通胀预期模型进行测试。测试覆盖2003年至今的数据，发现最能评估实际通胀与通胀预期之间的关系的，是克利夫兰联储模型。该模型目前预测未来五年的通胀年率为2.2%，足以接近美联储2%的通胀目标。如果这个预测准确的话，足以使美联储在6月的会议上不加息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183197474820104,"gmtCreate":1685747111804,"gmtModify":1685747115359,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183197474820104","repostId":"2340710504","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2340710504","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1685714520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2340710504?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-02 22:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind Tesla's price war, huge IRA subsidies add fuel to the fire","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2340710504","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国总统拜登签署的气候法案为埃隆·马斯克的电动汽车价格战提供了更多火力。智通财经APP获悉，研究机构Benchmark Mineral Intelligence预测，根据《通胀削减法案》(IRA)，特","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The climate bill signed by US President Joe Biden provides more firepower for Elon Musk's electric vehicle price war. Zhitong Finance APP learned that research firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence predicts that according to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) and its battery partners will receive about $1.8 billion in production tax credits this year, a windfall that far exceeds<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>(GM.US) and LG Energy Solutions's estimated $480 million. Another competitor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>(F.US) won't start benefiting from the bill's battery manufacturing tax credit until 2025.</p><p>The IRA offers plenty of incentives for battery suppliers and automakers that produce in the U.S., and crucially, the more batteries and electric vehicles a company produces in the U.S., the more money it receives through tax credits.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Will be a big winner of IRA production tax credit</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f65380865ccdcd602f488d3ab7f6925\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"603\"/></p><p>Tesla is way ahead of traditional automakers in producing eligible products. Nearly a decade ago, Tesla broke ground on a battery factory in Nevada with Panasonic.</p><p>\"We will take full advantage of this in the coming years,\" Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn said in January.</p><p><strong>A fierce battle</strong></p><p>Tesla has said it expects to use the money to continue cutting prices for consumers as part of the company's strategy to sacrifice short-term margins to boost sales amid rising inflation and competition. Musk's price reduction strategy gives<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>And established automakers such as Ford, which are already facing significant profitability challenges in electrifying their product lines.</p><p>Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter estimates that Tesla's average vehicle selling price could drop by $125 per quarter over the next two years thanks to the production tax credit, but it won't affect margins.</p><p>Even Musk agrees with the huge potential rewards of this bill. In a recent interview with the media, he called the tax credit \"helpful\" and said the IRA is a \"very good\" bill.</p><p>\"Tesla will gain more from the IRA than any other company because they are already producing batteries in large quantities,\" said Austin Devaney, chief commercial officer at Piedmont Lithium, which has a supply agreement with Tesla and battery maker LG.</p><p>It's difficult to accurately estimate how much tax credits automakers and battery makers will receive in 2023 and beyond, as that number depends on sales of electric vehicles using U.S.-made batteries, as well as revenue-sharing agreements between partners.</p><p>These variables may explain why Tesla's forecast tax credits are lower than Benchmark Mineral's forecast, which includes Panasonic's share. Production forecasts may also vary. Tesla projected in January that the manufacturing tax credit in the 2023 IRA could mean the company receives $150 million to $250 million per quarter, or as much as $1 billion for the full year.</p><p>GM said it expects to receive $300 million in tax credits this year and plans to build 1 million electric vehicles a year by 2025, generating $3.5 billion to $5.5 billion if all are sold out.</p><p>Ford declined to say how much tax credit it will receive, but the company plans to increase annual global production of electric vehicles to 600,000 by the end of this year and 2 million by the end of 2026.</p><p>The tax credit will begin to phase out in 2030, so there is an urgent need to get battery plants up and running quickly. Guidehouse Insights analyst Sam Abuelsamid said the flood of new EV models will fuel the price war as car companies build more vehicles to receive more subsidies.</p><p>\"The next three to five years are going to be tough for everyone in this industry, it's going to be a tough battle,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Tesla's price war, huge IRA subsidies add fuel to the fire</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Tesla's price war, huge IRA subsidies add fuel to the fire\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-02 22:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The climate bill signed by US President Joe Biden provides more firepower for Elon Musk's electric vehicle price war. Zhitong Finance APP learned that research firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence predicts that according to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) and its battery partners will receive about $1.8 billion in production tax credits this year, a windfall that far exceeds<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>(GM.US) and LG Energy Solutions's estimated $480 million. Another competitor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>(F.US) won't start benefiting from the bill's battery manufacturing tax credit until 2025.</p><p>The IRA offers plenty of incentives for battery suppliers and automakers that produce in the U.S., and crucially, the more batteries and electric vehicles a company produces in the U.S., the more money it receives through tax credits.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Will be a big winner of IRA production tax credit</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f65380865ccdcd602f488d3ab7f6925\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"603\"/></p><p>Tesla is way ahead of traditional automakers in producing eligible products. Nearly a decade ago, Tesla broke ground on a battery factory in Nevada with Panasonic.</p><p>\"We will take full advantage of this in the coming years,\" Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn said in January.</p><p><strong>A fierce battle</strong></p><p>Tesla has said it expects to use the money to continue cutting prices for consumers as part of the company's strategy to sacrifice short-term margins to boost sales amid rising inflation and competition. Musk's price reduction strategy gives<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>And established automakers such as Ford, which are already facing significant profitability challenges in electrifying their product lines.</p><p>Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter estimates that Tesla's average vehicle selling price could drop by $125 per quarter over the next two years thanks to the production tax credit, but it won't affect margins.</p><p>Even Musk agrees with the huge potential rewards of this bill. In a recent interview with the media, he called the tax credit \"helpful\" and said the IRA is a \"very good\" bill.</p><p>\"Tesla will gain more from the IRA than any other company because they are already producing batteries in large quantities,\" said Austin Devaney, chief commercial officer at Piedmont Lithium, which has a supply agreement with Tesla and battery maker LG.</p><p>It's difficult to accurately estimate how much tax credits automakers and battery makers will receive in 2023 and beyond, as that number depends on sales of electric vehicles using U.S.-made batteries, as well as revenue-sharing agreements between partners.</p><p>These variables may explain why Tesla's forecast tax credits are lower than Benchmark Mineral's forecast, which includes Panasonic's share. Production forecasts may also vary. Tesla projected in January that the manufacturing tax credit in the 2023 IRA could mean the company receives $150 million to $250 million per quarter, or as much as $1 billion for the full year.</p><p>GM said it expects to receive $300 million in tax credits this year and plans to build 1 million electric vehicles a year by 2025, generating $3.5 billion to $5.5 billion if all are sold out.</p><p>Ford declined to say how much tax credit it will receive, but the company plans to increase annual global production of electric vehicles to 600,000 by the end of this year and 2 million by the end of 2026.</p><p>The tax credit will begin to phase out in 2030, so there is an urgent need to get battery plants up and running quickly. Guidehouse Insights analyst Sam Abuelsamid said the flood of new EV models will fuel the price war as car companies build more vehicles to receive more subsidies.</p><p>\"The next three to five years are going to be tough for everyone in this industry, it's going to be a tough battle,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/940178.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8541380317eba7ef07da7c529e879c07","relate_stocks":{"LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4588":"碎股","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/940178.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2340710504","content_text":"美国总统拜登签署的气候法案为埃隆·马斯克的电动汽车价格战提供了更多火力。智通财经APP获悉，研究机构Benchmark Mineral Intelligence预测，根据《通胀削减法案》(IRA)，特斯拉(TSLA.US)及其电池合作伙伴今年将获得约18亿美元的生产税收抵免，这笔意外之财远远超过通用汽车(GM.US)和LG能源解决方案预计的4.8亿美元。另一家竞争对手福特汽车(F.US)要到 2025 年才能开始从该法案的电池制造税收抵免中获益。IRA为在美国生产的电池供应商和汽车制造商提供了大量激励措施，而且至关重要的是，一家公司在美国生产的电池和电动汽车越多，它通过税收抵免获得的资金就越多。特斯拉将成为IRA生产税收抵免的大赢家特斯拉在生产符合条件的产品方面远远领先于传统汽车制造商。近十年前，特斯拉与松下在内华达州的一家电池厂破土动工。特斯拉首席财务官Zachary Kirkhorn今年1月表示:“未来几年，我们将充分利用这一优势。”一场恶战特斯拉曾表示，预计将利用这笔资金继续为消费者降价，这是该公司在通胀和竞争加剧的背景下牺牲短期利润率以提振销量的战略的一部分。马斯克的降价策略给通用汽车和福特等老牌汽车制造商带来压力，这些公司在电气化产品线方面已经面临着巨大的盈利挑战。Piper Sandler分析师 Alexander Potter估计，由于生产税收抵免，未来两年特斯拉每季度的汽车平均售价可能会下降125美元，但不会影响利润率。就连马斯克也对这项法案带来的巨大潜在回报表示赞同。在最近接受媒体采访时，他称税收抵免“很有帮助”，并表示IRA是一项“非常好”的法案。皮埃蒙特锂业公司首席商务官Austin Devaney表示:“特斯拉从IRA中获得的收益将比其他任何公司都多，因为他们已经在大量生产电池。”皮埃蒙特锂业公司与特斯拉及电池制造商LG签订了供应协议。很难准确估计汽车制造商和电池制造商在2023年及以后将获得多少税收抵免，因为这个数字取决于使用美国制造的电池的电动汽车销量，以及合作伙伴之间的收入分配协议。这些变量或许可以解释为什么特斯拉预测的税收抵免低于Benchmark Mineral 的预测，后者包括松下的份额。产量预测也可能有所不同。特斯拉1月份预计，2023年IRA中的制造业税收抵免可能意味着该公司每季度获得1.5亿至2.5亿美元，或全年高达10亿美元。通用汽车表示，预计今年将获得3亿美元的税收抵免，并计划到2025年每年生产100万辆电动汽车，如果全部销售一空，将产生35亿至55亿美元的收益。福特拒绝透露将获得多少税收抵免，但该公司计划到今年年底将全球电动汽车的年产量提高到60万辆，2026年底将达到200万辆。税收抵免将于2030年开始逐步取消，因此迫切需要让电池厂迅速启动并运行。Guidehouse Insights分析师Sam Abuelsamid表示，随着汽车公司生产更多汽车以获得更多补贴，新电动汽车车型的大量涌现将加剧价格战。他表示:“未来三到五年对这个行业的每个人来说都将是艰难的，这将是一场恶战。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183196761514128,"gmtCreate":1685747090497,"gmtModify":1685747094107,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"V","listText":"V","text":"V","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183196761514128","repostId":"1154091453","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154091453","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1685716812,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154091453?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-02 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ford's U.S. electric vehicle sales fell 13% year-on-year in May","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154091453","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月2日，福特汽车官网6月2日宣布，5月美国市场总销量为170,933辆，同比增加10.7%；其中，电动汽车销量为5,444辆，同比下降13%。2023年前5个月，该公司美国市场总销量为830,841","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On June 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The official website announced on June 2 that the total sales volume in the US market in May was 170,933 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; Among them, 5,444 electric vehicles were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. In the first five months of 2023, the company's total U.S. market sales were 830,841 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74373c38eab9ea9253098eb85545f1b0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford's U.S. electric vehicle sales fell 13% year-on-year in May</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord's U.S. electric vehicle sales fell 13% year-on-year in May\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-06-02 22:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On June 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The official website announced on June 2 that the total sales volume in the US market in May was 170,933 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; Among them, 5,444 electric vehicles were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. In the first five months of 2023, the company's total U.S. market sales were 830,841 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74373c38eab9ea9253098eb85545f1b0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9c7511e646b4f70e751ca585ab218a0","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4588":"碎股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154091453","content_text":"6月2日，福特汽车官网6月2日宣布，5月美国市场总销量为170,933辆，同比增加10.7%；其中，电动汽车销量为5,444辆，同比下降13%。2023年前5个月，该公司美国市场总销量为830,841辆，同比增加8.8%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979035829,"gmtCreate":1685133025262,"gmtModify":1685133028802,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T","listText":"T","text":"T","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979035829","repostId":"1103762523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103762523","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1685107721,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103762523?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 21:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | U.S. stocks opened higher, Pinduoduo's financial report rose more than 13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103762523","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道琼斯指数开盘上涨42.65点，涨幅0.13%，报32807.30点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 26 (Friday), the Dow Jones index opened up 42.65 points, or 0.13%, to 32807.30 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 6.35 points, or 0.15%, to 4157.63 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 32.55 points, or 0.26%, to 12,730.65 points.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7a0888a0ec7d0de8ce65d71c0aa76a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Pinduoduo opened up more than 13%, Q1 revenue increased by 58% year-on-year to 37.637 billion yuan, and net profit increased by 212% year-on-year to 8.101 billion yuan, both exceeding market expectations; Online marketing services and other revenue was 27.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbe3b5a29dfdfd1f42b25ec7bae1ff0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>At the same time, most popular Chinese concept stocks rose. TAL and NetEase rose by more than 3%, New Oriental and Manbang rose by more than 2%, and Alibaba and JD.com rose by more than 1%.</p><p>Faraday Future rose 4.5%, FF 91 successfully passed the FMVSS crash test, and the first phase of delivery is scheduled to begin on May 31, US time.</p><p>Maiwell Technology rose 22.5%, Q2 revenue guidance was better than expected, and artificial intelligence revenue is expected to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth in fiscal year 2024.</p><p>Ford Motor rose 2% as Ford reached an agreement with Tesla to allow its North American electric vehicle customers to use Tesla's Supercharger network.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | U.S. stocks opened higher, Pinduoduo's financial report rose more than 13%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | U.S. stocks opened higher, Pinduoduo's financial report rose more than 13%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-26 21:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 26 (Friday), the Dow Jones index opened up 42.65 points, or 0.13%, to 32807.30 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 6.35 points, or 0.15%, to 4157.63 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 32.55 points, or 0.26%, to 12,730.65 points.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7a0888a0ec7d0de8ce65d71c0aa76a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Pinduoduo opened up more than 13%, Q1 revenue increased by 58% year-on-year to 37.637 billion yuan, and net profit increased by 212% year-on-year to 8.101 billion yuan, both exceeding market expectations; Online marketing services and other revenue was 27.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbe3b5a29dfdfd1f42b25ec7bae1ff0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>At the same time, most popular Chinese concept stocks rose. TAL and NetEase rose by more than 3%, New Oriental and Manbang rose by more than 2%, and Alibaba and JD.com rose by more than 1%.</p><p>Faraday Future rose 4.5%, FF 91 successfully passed the FMVSS crash test, and the first phase of delivery is scheduled to begin on May 31, US time.</p><p>Maiwell Technology rose 22.5%, Q2 revenue guidance was better than expected, and artificial intelligence revenue is expected to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth in fiscal year 2024.</p><p>Ford Motor rose 2% as Ford reached an agreement with Tesla to allow its North American electric vehicle customers to use Tesla's Supercharger network.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103762523","content_text":"5月26日（周五），道琼斯指数开盘上涨42.65点，涨幅0.13%，报32807.30点；标普500指数开盘上涨6.35点，涨幅0.15%，报4157.63点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨32.55点，涨幅0.26%，报12730.65点。拼多多开盘大涨超13%，Q1营收同比增长58%至376.37亿元，净利润同比增长212%至81.01亿元，均超市场预期；在线营销服务及其他收入272.44亿元，同比增长50%。同时，热门中概股多数走高，好未来、网易涨超3%，新东方、满帮涨超2%，阿里巴巴、京东涨超1%。法拉第未来涨4.5%，FF 91成功通过FMVSS碰撞测试，第一阶段交付计划于美国时间5月31日开始。迈威尔科技涨22.5%，Q2营收指引好于预期，预计2024财年人工智能营收将取得两位数的同比增幅。福特汽车涨2%，福特与特斯拉达成一项协议，允许其北美电动汽车客户使用特斯拉超级充电站网络。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979035184,"gmtCreate":1685133008849,"gmtModify":1685133012455,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979035184","repostId":"1111372068","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111372068","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1685109408,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111372068?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 21:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The economy isn't cooling down? U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly rose month-on-month in April","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111372068","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"耐用品订单量连续两月上升，显示美国经济保持强劲。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chang Jiashuai</p><p>On May 26, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that durable goods orders unexpectedly rose in April, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1%, compared with an expected decrease of 1%. At the same time, the March data was revised up from an increase of 3.2% to 3.3%. Durable goods orders have increased for two consecutive months.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e111c06dc1975300d5c5ec96ade04d44\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"317\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Among them, the core durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector decreased by 0.2%, the expected value remained unchanged, and the previous value increased by 0.3%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93d6e19d066e9eb1138af262d5bad42\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Durable goods orders excluding national defense fell by 0.6%, compared with an increase of 3.2% in the previous value.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fd1b71a497ea5d5d551275028f1a5c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Excluding aircraft and defense, U.S. durable goods orders increased by 1.4% in April, compared with expectations for a decrease of 0.5% and a decrease of 0.6% in the previous value.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Durable goods refer to computers, home appliances, automobiles and other products that can be used for at least three years and consumers will not often buy. Durable goods orders are one of the important data reflecting the economic situation of the United States.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The U.S. Department of Commerce said the unexpected rise in durable goods order data in April was mainly driven by the growth of orders from the transportation sector. The transportation sector includes automobiles, bicycles and other commodities, which are huge in volume and change frequently. Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector decreased slightly by 0.2%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, durable goods orders have risen for two consecutive months, and the core PCE of the United States in April announced at the same time also rose more than expected, confirming that the U.S. economy has not yet cooled down and strengthening expectations for subsequent Fed rate hike.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The economy isn't cooling down? U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly rose month-on-month in April</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe economy isn't cooling down? U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly rose month-on-month in April\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-26 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chang Jiashuai</p><p>On May 26, local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that durable goods orders unexpectedly rose in April, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1%, compared with an expected decrease of 1%. At the same time, the March data was revised up from an increase of 3.2% to 3.3%. Durable goods orders have increased for two consecutive months.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e111c06dc1975300d5c5ec96ade04d44\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"317\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Among them, the core durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector decreased by 0.2%, the expected value remained unchanged, and the previous value increased by 0.3%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93d6e19d066e9eb1138af262d5bad42\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Durable goods orders excluding national defense fell by 0.6%, compared with an increase of 3.2% in the previous value.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fd1b71a497ea5d5d551275028f1a5c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Excluding aircraft and defense, U.S. durable goods orders increased by 1.4% in April, compared with expectations for a decrease of 0.5% and a decrease of 0.6% in the previous value.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Durable goods refer to computers, home appliances, automobiles and other products that can be used for at least three years and consumers will not often buy. Durable goods orders are one of the important data reflecting the economic situation of the United States.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The U.S. Department of Commerce said the unexpected rise in durable goods order data in April was mainly driven by the growth of orders from the transportation sector. The transportation sector includes automobiles, bicycles and other commodities, which are huge in volume and change frequently. Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector decreased slightly by 0.2%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, durable goods orders have risen for two consecutive months, and the core PCE of the United States in April announced at the same time also rose more than expected, confirming that the U.S. economy has not yet cooled down and strengthening expectations for subsequent Fed rate hike.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689739\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289b82a155026055831ebe486b902c66","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689739","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1111372068","content_text":"作者：常嘉帅当地时间5月26日，美国商务部公布的数据显示，4月耐用品订单量意外上升，环比增长1.1%，预期为下降1%，同时，3月数据由增长3.2%上修为3.3%。耐用品订单量已连续两月增长。其中，剔除交通部门的核心耐用品订单量下降0.2%，预期值为不变，前值为上升0.3%。剔除国防的耐用品订单量下降0.6%，前值为增长3.2%。剔除飞机和国防后，美国4月耐用品订单量增长1.4%，预期为减少0.5%，前值为减少0.6%。耐用品指电脑、家电、汽车等至少可以使用三年、消费者不会经常购买的产品。耐用品订单量是反应美国经济状况的重要数据之一。美国商务部表示，4月耐用品订单数据的意外上行，主要受来自交通部门的订单增长驱动。交通部门包含汽车、自行车等商品，体量庞大且变化频繁。扣除交通部门的耐用品订单量略微下降0.2%。不过，耐用品订单量已连续两月上涨，再加上同时公布的美国4月核心PCE也超预期上行，印证美国经济仍未能降温，强化后续美联储加息的预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979035323,"gmtCreate":1685132987963,"gmtModify":1685132991596,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979035323","repostId":"1140198668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140198668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1685111437,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140198668?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The final value of the U.S. consumer confidence index in May was 59.2, higher than expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140198668","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"市场情绪没有像刚公布初值那样低落。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May in the United States was 59.2, expected to be 57.7, and the previous value was 57.7.</strong></p><p>Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, said expectations for one-year U.S. inflation fell back to 4.2% in May after surging to 4.6% in April. Uncertainty, measured by the interquartile range of these expectations, averaged 7.8 over the past 12 months, but this month fell to 5.7, the lowest level of uncertainty in nearly two years. This suggests that consumer perceptions of short-term inflation may be stabilizing after four months of swing. Long-term inflation expectations edged up for the second consecutive month, but remained within a narrow range of 2.9%-3.1% for 21 of the past 22 months.</p><p>Financial website Forexlive commented on the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May: Overall, this is a great report. Market sentiment is not as low as the initial value just announced, and inflation is not as strong. The proposal of a debt ceiling solution should help more, but rising interest rates could weigh on the economy next month.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The final value of the U.S. consumer confidence index in May was 59.2, higher than expected</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe final value of the U.S. consumer confidence index in May was 59.2, higher than expected\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-26 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May in the United States was 59.2, expected to be 57.7, and the previous value was 57.7.</strong></p><p>Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, said expectations for one-year U.S. inflation fell back to 4.2% in May after surging to 4.6% in April. Uncertainty, measured by the interquartile range of these expectations, averaged 7.8 over the past 12 months, but this month fell to 5.7, the lowest level of uncertainty in nearly two years. This suggests that consumer perceptions of short-term inflation may be stabilizing after four months of swing. Long-term inflation expectations edged up for the second consecutive month, but remained within a narrow range of 2.9%-3.1% for 21 of the past 22 months.</p><p>Financial website Forexlive commented on the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May: Overall, this is a great report. Market sentiment is not as low as the initial value just announced, and inflation is not as strong. The proposal of a debt ceiling solution should help more, but rising interest rates could weigh on the economy next month.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/987ab6715591b2ad7014d2cf9348920e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140198668","content_text":"美国5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值 59.2，预期57.7，前值57.7。密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu表示，美国一年期通胀率预期在4月份飙升至4.6%后，5月份回落至4.2%。以这些预期的四分位数区间衡量的不确定性在过去12个月平均为7.8，但本月降至5.7，是近两年来的最低不确定性水平。这表明，在经历了四个月的摇摆之后，消费者对短期通胀的看法可能正在企稳。长期通胀预期连续第二个月小幅上升，但在过去22个月中有21个月保持在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅区间内。财经网站Forexlive评美国5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值：总的来说，这是一份很棒的报告，市场情绪没有像刚公布初值那样低落，通胀也没有那么强劲。债务上限解决方案的提出应该会有更大的帮助，但利率上升可能会拖累下个月的经济。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979035914,"gmtCreate":1685132972438,"gmtModify":1685132975777,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979035914","repostId":"1193134598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193134598","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1685114299,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193134598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 23:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Semiconductor stocks generally rose, Maiwell Technology rose more than 25%, and Nvidia continued to rise by about 1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193134598","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，费城半导体指数涨约4.5%，迈威尔科技涨超25%，博通涨近6%，美光科技涨超5%，AMD涨近5%，台积电涨超3%，英伟达涨1%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 4.5%, Mywell Technology rose more than 25%, Broadcom rose nearly 6%, Micron Technology rose more than 5%, AMD rose nearly 5%, TSMC rose more than 3%, and Nvidia rose 1%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5874e0072898e83f53f32a2bfb413602\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4986d7a8f56a7688191d9f9184f5e61\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b29182566f75fcc5cd0267a473437f6b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Semiconductor stocks generally rose, Maiwell Technology rose more than 25%, and Nvidia continued to rise by about 1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiconductor stocks generally rose, Maiwell Technology rose more than 25%, and Nvidia continued to rise by about 1%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-26 23:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 4.5%, Mywell Technology rose more than 25%, Broadcom rose nearly 6%, Micron Technology rose more than 5%, AMD rose nearly 5%, TSMC rose more than 3%, and Nvidia rose 1%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5874e0072898e83f53f32a2bfb413602\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4986d7a8f56a7688191d9f9184f5e61\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b29182566f75fcc5cd0267a473437f6b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7ec401ab6eae58e6c198e267509f35","relate_stocks":{"MRVL":"迈威尔科技","SOX":"费城半导体指数","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193134598","content_text":"周五，费城半导体指数涨约4.5%，迈威尔科技涨超25%，博通涨近6%，美光科技涨超5%，AMD涨近5%，台积电涨超3%，英伟达涨1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRVL":0.9,"SOX":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9094879084,"gmtCreate":1645123496313,"gmtModify":1676533999502,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"J","listText":"J","text":"J","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094879084","repostId":"1121672214","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121672214","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645108142,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121672214?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 22:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | New situations occurred in Russia and the United States, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121672214","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道琼斯指数开盘下跌217.21点，跌幅0.62%，报34717.06点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On February 17 (Thursday), the Dow Jones index opened down 217.21 points, or 0.62%, to 34,717.06 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 31.63 points, or 0.71%, to 4443.38 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 123.85 points, or 0.88%, to 14,000.25 points.</p><p>On the news,<b>According to the US Embassy in Russia, Moscow expelled Gorman, deputy ambassador of the US Embassy in Russia. U.S. President Biden said he had no intention of calling Russian President Vladimir Putin.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b10a186b96f63a2f266a82fd8623de9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>\"American version of Ele.me\" DoorDash soared by more than 18%, Q4 revenue increased by 34% year-on-year and losses narrowed significantly, and the total amount of platform orders exceeded expectations.</p><p>Faraday Future rose more than 5%, after previously announcing that the production version of the electric vehicle FF 91 will be officially released on February 23.</p><p>Cisco rose 2.92% at the beginning of the session. The company's second-quarter results were better than expected and it raised its annual profit per share forecast.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRO\">Marathon Oil</a>It rose more than 5%, and Q4 revenue increased by about 116.8% year-on-year and was better than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Falling 4.7%, the company's Q4 and full-year revenue hit new highs. However, some analysts said that the market has too much hope for Nvidia's financial report, and the performance is only slightly higher than or in line with expectations, which may cause the stock price to fall.</p><p>Cloud Computing Companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLY\">Fastly</a>Falling 28%, Q4 net loss expanded year-on-year and 2022 revenue guidance fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>It fell more than 13%, and the net loss in Q4 expanded to US $156 million compared with the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">American Albemarle Corporation</a>It fell 12.89%, and the earnings guidance for 2022 was lower than expected.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | New situations occurred in Russia and the United States, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | New situations occurred in Russia and the United States, and all three major U.S. stock indexes fell\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-17 22:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On February 17 (Thursday), the Dow Jones index opened down 217.21 points, or 0.62%, to 34,717.06 points; The S&P 500 index opened down 31.63 points, or 0.71%, to 4443.38 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 123.85 points, or 0.88%, to 14,000.25 points.</p><p>On the news,<b>According to the US Embassy in Russia, Moscow expelled Gorman, deputy ambassador of the US Embassy in Russia. U.S. President Biden said he had no intention of calling Russian President Vladimir Putin.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b10a186b96f63a2f266a82fd8623de9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>\"American version of Ele.me\" DoorDash soared by more than 18%, Q4 revenue increased by 34% year-on-year and losses narrowed significantly, and the total amount of platform orders exceeded expectations.</p><p>Faraday Future rose more than 5%, after previously announcing that the production version of the electric vehicle FF 91 will be officially released on February 23.</p><p>Cisco rose 2.92% at the beginning of the session. The company's second-quarter results were better than expected and it raised its annual profit per share forecast.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRO\">Marathon Oil</a>It rose more than 5%, and Q4 revenue increased by about 116.8% year-on-year and was better than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Falling 4.7%, the company's Q4 and full-year revenue hit new highs. However, some analysts said that the market has too much hope for Nvidia's financial report, and the performance is only slightly higher than or in line with expectations, which may cause the stock price to fall.</p><p>Cloud Computing Companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLY\">Fastly</a>Falling 28%, Q4 net loss expanded year-on-year and 2022 revenue guidance fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>It fell more than 13%, and the net loss in Q4 expanded to US $156 million compared with the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">American Albemarle Corporation</a>It fell 12.89%, and the earnings guidance for 2022 was lower than expected.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121672214","content_text":"2月17日（周四），道琼斯指数开盘下跌217.21点，跌幅0.62%，报34717.06点；标普500指数开盘下跌31.63点，跌幅0.71%，报4443.38点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌123.85点，跌幅0.88%，报14000.25点。消息面上，据美国驻俄罗斯大使馆消息，莫斯科将美国驻俄大使馆副大使戈尔曼驱逐出境。而美国总统拜登表示，无意打电话给俄罗斯总统普京。“美国版饿了么”DoorDash大涨超18%，Q4营收同比增长34%且亏损大幅收窄，平台订单总金额胜预期。法拉第未来涨超5%，此前宣布电动车FF 91量产版将在2月23日正式发布。思科盘初涨2.92%，该公司第二财季业绩好于预期，并上调年度每股利润预测。马拉松石油涨超5%，Q4营收同比大增约116.8%且好于预期。英伟达跌4.7%，公司Q4及全年收入创新高。但有分析称，市场对英伟达财报寄予希望过大，业绩仅小幅高于或者符合预期可能反而令股价下跌。云计算公司Fastly重挫28%，Q4净亏损同比扩大且2022年营收指引不及预期。Palantir跌超13%，Q4净亏损较去年同期扩大至1.56亿美元。美国雅宝公司跌12.89%，2022年盈利指引低于预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097923144,"gmtCreate":1645319555201,"gmtModify":1676534017846,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"P","listText":"P","text":"P","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097923144","repostId":"1124602561","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124602561","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1645319129,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124602561?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-20 09:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Earn 500 times in 26 years! Can leeks really counterattack?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124602561","media":"券商中国","summary":"凭运气赚钱，凭实力亏钱！韭菜能逆袭吗？投资真能改变命运吗？近期A股一波三折，热门赛道白马股和“顶流”基金净值重挫，深陷其中的投资者再度自嘲“韭菜”难逃被收割的命运。本期分享一个普通投资者的真实故事：这","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Make money by luck, lose money by strength! Can leeks counterattack? Can investment really change your destiny?</b>Recently, A-shares have experienced twists and turns, and the net value of popular track white horse stocks and \"top-tier\" funds has plummeted. Investors who are deeply involved in it once again laughed at themselves that \"leeks\" cannot escape the fate of being harvested.</p><p>This issue shares the true story of an ordinary investor: This is the story of two generations of investment relay running. Mr. M's mother and Mr. M have earned about 500 times the income in 26 years, of which value investment is about 100 times, and event-driven is about 5 times. However, in the first eight years of their investment road, active investment basically didn't make any money. During this period, they had to follow the ups and downs of the market and endure the abuse of a large pullback/retracement; But in the next 18 years, Mr. M summed up his own investment mistakes and the successful experiences of others, and his investment income increased exponentially.</p><p>Mr. M always takes pains to share with friends around him: unless you are willing to be a leek and be slaughtered by others, leeks can grow into towering trees through evolution and learning; Invest as early as possible, and the sooner you get hit with your head, the better. At that time, you can afford to lose your principal at a young age; The stock market will help those who help themselves, and their destiny is in their own hands. After investors find the right direction and path, the stock market can bring returns that change their destiny.</p><p><b>A sample of 500 times over 26 years</b></p><p>Mr. M's family was poor since childhood, and his mother crashed into the stock market in a daze. In 1989, the company where Mr. M's mother worked was unable to pay wages, so it gave employees internal employee shares with a face value of 2,000 yuan; In 1995, after the company went public and the internal employee shares were sold off, Mr. M's mother had the principal to invest in the stock market. At that time, the so-called stock trading was sitting on a bench in the lobby of the sales department and watching the screen turn over. According to hearsay, this fund followed the ups and downs of the market from 1995 to 1998, and the overall level was flat.</p><p>After graduating from college in 1997, Mr. M entered a large state-owned enterprise. In order to let his retired mother pass the time, he handed over his savings in the past two years to his mother, and their funds together could settle in the middle room. In 1999, this fund was bet on Shenyili A, which was later<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000028\">Sinopharm Accord</a>Restructuring, this fund gained about one and a half times the income, which was regarded as a lot of money at the time.</p><p>But money earned by luck will still be lost back by strength. In the four-year bear market after 2000, this fund lost 70% of the money at the peak in 1999, of which 50% was lost in pullback/retracement from 2000 to 2002. But the important turning point occurred in 2003, when this fund began to be fully positioned<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600600\">Tsingtao Brewery</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000060\">Zhongjin Lingnan</a>, after the opening of positions, these two stocks once again surged by nearly 50% in pullback/retracement. By the lowest point in 2004, it had lost two-thirds of the funds at the peak in 1999.</p><p>Mr. M sold in 2009<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600600\">Tsingtao Brewery</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000060\">Zhongjin Lingnan</a>Yes, Tsingtao Brewery made a profit of nearly 10 times, and CICC Lingnan made a profit of nearly 20 times. Mr. M clearly remembers that the initial purchase price of Tsingtao Brewery in 2003 was close to 8 yuan. After the dilution of share bonus, dividends and warrant during the share reform period, the purchase cost of Tsingtao Brewery was reduced to more than 4 yuan. Mr. M sold Tsingtao Brewery at a price of more than 40 yuan in 2009, and made a profit of nearly 10 times during the 7-year investment period.</p><p>Mr. M's initial purchase cost of CICC Lingnan was close to 6 yuan. After the dilution of share bonus and dividends during the share reform period, the purchase cost of CICC Lingnan dropped to more than 1 yuan. In 2009, Mr. M sold Zhongjin Lingnan at a price of more than 20 yuan, making a profit of about 20 times.</p><p>However, Mr. M's investment philosophy is still swinging. From 2010 to 2015, he tried the event-driven market that was hot at that time. During this period, he experienced a 40% pullback/retracement in 2012 and a half cut in 2015, and the overall income was about 5 times.</p><p>After learning from the bitter experience in 2015, Mr. M once again returned to the road of value investment, and began to invest heavily in Maotai from the end of 2015, with a floating profit of nearly 10 times.</p><p><b>A \"leek\" indomitable road to promotion</b></p><p>Mr. M started out as a proper leek, and he ups and downs in the stock market with luck. The huge losses deeply stung Mr. M. Unwilling to be a leek, he started a tenacious road to promotion after 2003, completing the transformation from a small scatter to a rational value investor.</p><p><b>He did the following important things right:</b></p><p>First, study, study and re-study. The constant floating losses that began in 2000 made Mr. M's scalp numb, and he began to think about how to change this situation.</p><p>Mr. M is a science and engineering student. At the beginning of entering the stock market, he lacked basic understanding of the economy and the operating laws of the stock market. However, he believes that learning is the best way to make up for the lack of cognition. In the era when the mobile Internet was not popular, Mr. M's learning way was to watch TV and subscribe to newspapers. Mr. M sits in front of the TV at 7:30 every night to watch CCTV's financial channel, from the broadcast of economic information to the broadcast of economic information for half an hour, and then to the report of China's stock market. If he has time, he also tries to watch the \"Trading Hours\" in the afternoon. The time to watch TV and study lasts until after 10 o'clock in the evening, and he takes notes carefully on important information.</p><p>Mr. M still remembers that since 2004, he often bought financial newspapers at newsstands. During the long-term study, Mr. M has formed a basic understanding of the logic of economic operation and the way of investing in the stock market.</p><p>The second is familiarity, familiarity and re-familiarity. Mr. M works from the bottom up and knows the fundamentals of his buying stocks by heart.</p><p>To this day, Mr. M can still tell several reasons why he bought Tsingtao Brewery: at the beginning of 2000, Mr. M, who was still young, and his friends liked to sing K together, and he found that people's preference for beer changed from Heineken to Tsingtao Brewery; Tsingtao Brewery itself is changing from the expansion strategy of \"Peng Zuoyi era\" to the stage of \"Jin Zhiguo era\", which requires not only the market but also the profit stage; AB Company of the United States privatized Harbin Beer Company in Hong Kong stocks and invested in Tsingtao Brewery. The era of mergers and acquisitions in the beer industry is coming, and industry giants are beginning to emerge.</p><p>As for CICC Lingnan, Mr. M said that if you watch the news for a long time, it is not difficult to find the vigorous development of China's real estate market, and commodity prices are driven upward for a long time by this factor. CICC Lingnan was the industry leader at that time, so naturally CICC Lingnan was chosen. Although he can't go to the field for research, he doesn't miss every opportunity to search and improve the investment information of this individual stock. He can even remember the latitude and longitude of the company's metal mine, the grade of the mine and other details.</p><p>As a typical science and engineering man, Mr. M said with emotion that if he didn't master the theorems and formulas, he would only do the wrong questions; If you don't understand the structure and performance of machinery and equipment, you will definitely not know where the fault is! The same goes for investment. Only by having an in-depth and detailed understanding of the fundamentals of the company you hold can you not be afraid of market fluctuations.</p><p>The third is independence, independence and re-independence. Since holding Tsingtao Brewery and Zhongjin Lingnan, as the stock price rose, the market value gradually increased. Mr. M's mother moved from the middle room to the big room. The securities broker also looked at it differently and upgraded the treatment of Mr. M's mother, from one computer to two or three computers to watch the market. Because Mr. M firmly believes that this is a big market and the stocks he holds are high-quality targets, he holds the shares without trading. As time went by, the broker couldn't sit still, and began to recommend various stocks, telling various reasons for buying and selling, but Mr. M remained unmoved, strengthened his confidence, and resolutely refused to trade.</p><p>The broker arranged the computer used by Mr. M's mother in the aisle outside the room on the grounds that the room was used for another purpose. After a while, the broker arranged for other clients to use computers, and Mr. M's mother's treatment changed from three computers to one computer again. After some time, the broker used the computer used by Mr. M's mother as a public computer for the clients in the lobby. Finally, Mr. M had to move to other securities companies. During the formalities, the front desk saw the market value of Mr. M's mother and Mr. M, and immediately called the broker to ask for retention. After the broker arrived, he said helplessly, \"Let's go, let's go, don't do a deal!\"</p><p>In the fuse market in January 2016, the market was jittery and wailing everywhere. A close friend of Mr. M called Mr. M with concern, telling him that the market was extremely pessimistic and might be in a slump. But Mr. M told his friends,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>The market value is only 200 billion yuan, and the PE is only 12 times. In the last fiscal year, Dividend's dividends per share will be more than 6 yuan, and the Dividend rate will reach more than 3%. There is absolutely no need to be afraid. Instead, Mr. M chose to increase his position.</p><p><b>In 2020 and 2021, the concept of new energy has become a hot topic in the market, and almost all friends around him are involved, but Mr. M is unmoved and still firmly holds it<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>。</b></p><p>Looking back on the past, Mr. M said with emotion that we must have independent thinking and not be influenced by other people's views. It is precisely independence that can make more benefits than relatives and friends around you.</p><p>The fourth is normal mind, normal mind, and normal mind again. Because of family reasons, Mr. M's family has been poor since childhood. Mr. M's mother is extremely frugal and has the habit of keeping accounts. In the 1980s, she kept accounts accurately to \"points\". Mr. M is also very frugal. Since he joined the work, he has made it clear what his monthly expenses are, lived within his means, and strived to save every month. No matter how difficult it is, even if there is not much monthly salary left after repaying the mortgage, Mr. M still has savings.</p><p>Mr. M said that it is his good living habits of living within his means and correct view of wealth that can keep him from holding shares over the years and not making stock accounts. If you have the idea of changing a car once you make money, buying a good thing when you make money, etc., you can't hold shares calmly; The more ideas, the greater the impact of mood swings, the more anxious investors will be, the more anxious they will be, the more they want to trade, buy and sell, sell and buy, and they will not find the north!</p><p><b>So what's the point of making money? Mr. M admits that wealth brings a sense of security, valuable independence and freedom, but he has never thought about luxury consumption.</b></p><p>Mr. M also believes that value investment seems to be unfast and advancing slowly, but it is actually not slow at all. In the investment decision-making process he has participated in in the past 20 years, it was Tsingtao Brewery, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Kweichow Moutai that started in the past five or six years that laid his own wealth foundation. During the event-driven investment in the middle five years, although he felt that he often made money, looking back, it was actually not fast at all, and it also made people extremely tired and anxious.</p><p>Mr. M said that value investment is a win-win situation and a process of sharing the wealth creation of listed companies, while speculation is an attempt to put money from other people's pockets into one's own pockets, and money earned by luck cannot last long.</p><p>When Silly Money realizes that he is stupid, Silly Money is not stupid; When the leek realized that it couldn't make another leek, all the sickles couldn't cut it.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earn 500 times in 26 years! Can leeks really counterattack?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarn 500 times in 26 years! Can leeks really counterattack?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-20 09:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Make money by luck, lose money by strength! Can leeks counterattack? Can investment really change your destiny?</b>Recently, A-shares have experienced twists and turns, and the net value of popular track white horse stocks and \"top-tier\" funds has plummeted. Investors who are deeply involved in it once again laughed at themselves that \"leeks\" cannot escape the fate of being harvested.</p><p>This issue shares the true story of an ordinary investor: This is the story of two generations of investment relay running. Mr. M's mother and Mr. M have earned about 500 times the income in 26 years, of which value investment is about 100 times, and event-driven is about 5 times. However, in the first eight years of their investment road, active investment basically didn't make any money. During this period, they had to follow the ups and downs of the market and endure the abuse of a large pullback/retracement; But in the next 18 years, Mr. M summed up his own investment mistakes and the successful experiences of others, and his investment income increased exponentially.</p><p>Mr. M always takes pains to share with friends around him: unless you are willing to be a leek and be slaughtered by others, leeks can grow into towering trees through evolution and learning; Invest as early as possible, and the sooner you get hit with your head, the better. At that time, you can afford to lose your principal at a young age; The stock market will help those who help themselves, and their destiny is in their own hands. After investors find the right direction and path, the stock market can bring returns that change their destiny.</p><p><b>A sample of 500 times over 26 years</b></p><p>Mr. M's family was poor since childhood, and his mother crashed into the stock market in a daze. In 1989, the company where Mr. M's mother worked was unable to pay wages, so it gave employees internal employee shares with a face value of 2,000 yuan; In 1995, after the company went public and the internal employee shares were sold off, Mr. M's mother had the principal to invest in the stock market. At that time, the so-called stock trading was sitting on a bench in the lobby of the sales department and watching the screen turn over. According to hearsay, this fund followed the ups and downs of the market from 1995 to 1998, and the overall level was flat.</p><p>After graduating from college in 1997, Mr. M entered a large state-owned enterprise. In order to let his retired mother pass the time, he handed over his savings in the past two years to his mother, and their funds together could settle in the middle room. In 1999, this fund was bet on Shenyili A, which was later<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000028\">Sinopharm Accord</a>Restructuring, this fund gained about one and a half times the income, which was regarded as a lot of money at the time.</p><p>But money earned by luck will still be lost back by strength. In the four-year bear market after 2000, this fund lost 70% of the money at the peak in 1999, of which 50% was lost in pullback/retracement from 2000 to 2002. But the important turning point occurred in 2003, when this fund began to be fully positioned<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600600\">Tsingtao Brewery</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000060\">Zhongjin Lingnan</a>, after the opening of positions, these two stocks once again surged by nearly 50% in pullback/retracement. By the lowest point in 2004, it had lost two-thirds of the funds at the peak in 1999.</p><p>Mr. M sold in 2009<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600600\">Tsingtao Brewery</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000060\">Zhongjin Lingnan</a>Yes, Tsingtao Brewery made a profit of nearly 10 times, and CICC Lingnan made a profit of nearly 20 times. Mr. M clearly remembers that the initial purchase price of Tsingtao Brewery in 2003 was close to 8 yuan. After the dilution of share bonus, dividends and warrant during the share reform period, the purchase cost of Tsingtao Brewery was reduced to more than 4 yuan. Mr. M sold Tsingtao Brewery at a price of more than 40 yuan in 2009, and made a profit of nearly 10 times during the 7-year investment period.</p><p>Mr. M's initial purchase cost of CICC Lingnan was close to 6 yuan. After the dilution of share bonus and dividends during the share reform period, the purchase cost of CICC Lingnan dropped to more than 1 yuan. In 2009, Mr. M sold Zhongjin Lingnan at a price of more than 20 yuan, making a profit of about 20 times.</p><p>However, Mr. M's investment philosophy is still swinging. From 2010 to 2015, he tried the event-driven market that was hot at that time. During this period, he experienced a 40% pullback/retracement in 2012 and a half cut in 2015, and the overall income was about 5 times.</p><p>After learning from the bitter experience in 2015, Mr. M once again returned to the road of value investment, and began to invest heavily in Maotai from the end of 2015, with a floating profit of nearly 10 times.</p><p><b>A \"leek\" indomitable road to promotion</b></p><p>Mr. M started out as a proper leek, and he ups and downs in the stock market with luck. The huge losses deeply stung Mr. M. Unwilling to be a leek, he started a tenacious road to promotion after 2003, completing the transformation from a small scatter to a rational value investor.</p><p><b>He did the following important things right:</b></p><p>First, study, study and re-study. The constant floating losses that began in 2000 made Mr. M's scalp numb, and he began to think about how to change this situation.</p><p>Mr. M is a science and engineering student. At the beginning of entering the stock market, he lacked basic understanding of the economy and the operating laws of the stock market. However, he believes that learning is the best way to make up for the lack of cognition. In the era when the mobile Internet was not popular, Mr. M's learning way was to watch TV and subscribe to newspapers. Mr. M sits in front of the TV at 7:30 every night to watch CCTV's financial channel, from the broadcast of economic information to the broadcast of economic information for half an hour, and then to the report of China's stock market. If he has time, he also tries to watch the \"Trading Hours\" in the afternoon. The time to watch TV and study lasts until after 10 o'clock in the evening, and he takes notes carefully on important information.</p><p>Mr. M still remembers that since 2004, he often bought financial newspapers at newsstands. During the long-term study, Mr. M has formed a basic understanding of the logic of economic operation and the way of investing in the stock market.</p><p>The second is familiarity, familiarity and re-familiarity. Mr. M works from the bottom up and knows the fundamentals of his buying stocks by heart.</p><p>To this day, Mr. M can still tell several reasons why he bought Tsingtao Brewery: at the beginning of 2000, Mr. M, who was still young, and his friends liked to sing K together, and he found that people's preference for beer changed from Heineken to Tsingtao Brewery; Tsingtao Brewery itself is changing from the expansion strategy of \"Peng Zuoyi era\" to the stage of \"Jin Zhiguo era\", which requires not only the market but also the profit stage; AB Company of the United States privatized Harbin Beer Company in Hong Kong stocks and invested in Tsingtao Brewery. The era of mergers and acquisitions in the beer industry is coming, and industry giants are beginning to emerge.</p><p>As for CICC Lingnan, Mr. M said that if you watch the news for a long time, it is not difficult to find the vigorous development of China's real estate market, and commodity prices are driven upward for a long time by this factor. CICC Lingnan was the industry leader at that time, so naturally CICC Lingnan was chosen. Although he can't go to the field for research, he doesn't miss every opportunity to search and improve the investment information of this individual stock. He can even remember the latitude and longitude of the company's metal mine, the grade of the mine and other details.</p><p>As a typical science and engineering man, Mr. M said with emotion that if he didn't master the theorems and formulas, he would only do the wrong questions; If you don't understand the structure and performance of machinery and equipment, you will definitely not know where the fault is! The same goes for investment. Only by having an in-depth and detailed understanding of the fundamentals of the company you hold can you not be afraid of market fluctuations.</p><p>The third is independence, independence and re-independence. Since holding Tsingtao Brewery and Zhongjin Lingnan, as the stock price rose, the market value gradually increased. Mr. M's mother moved from the middle room to the big room. The securities broker also looked at it differently and upgraded the treatment of Mr. M's mother, from one computer to two or three computers to watch the market. Because Mr. M firmly believes that this is a big market and the stocks he holds are high-quality targets, he holds the shares without trading. As time went by, the broker couldn't sit still, and began to recommend various stocks, telling various reasons for buying and selling, but Mr. M remained unmoved, strengthened his confidence, and resolutely refused to trade.</p><p>The broker arranged the computer used by Mr. M's mother in the aisle outside the room on the grounds that the room was used for another purpose. After a while, the broker arranged for other clients to use computers, and Mr. M's mother's treatment changed from three computers to one computer again. After some time, the broker used the computer used by Mr. M's mother as a public computer for the clients in the lobby. Finally, Mr. M had to move to other securities companies. During the formalities, the front desk saw the market value of Mr. M's mother and Mr. M, and immediately called the broker to ask for retention. After the broker arrived, he said helplessly, \"Let's go, let's go, don't do a deal!\"</p><p>In the fuse market in January 2016, the market was jittery and wailing everywhere. A close friend of Mr. M called Mr. M with concern, telling him that the market was extremely pessimistic and might be in a slump. But Mr. M told his friends,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>The market value is only 200 billion yuan, and the PE is only 12 times. In the last fiscal year, Dividend's dividends per share will be more than 6 yuan, and the Dividend rate will reach more than 3%. There is absolutely no need to be afraid. Instead, Mr. M chose to increase his position.</p><p><b>In 2020 and 2021, the concept of new energy has become a hot topic in the market, and almost all friends around him are involved, but Mr. M is unmoved and still firmly holds it<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>。</b></p><p>Looking back on the past, Mr. M said with emotion that we must have independent thinking and not be influenced by other people's views. It is precisely independence that can make more benefits than relatives and friends around you.</p><p>The fourth is normal mind, normal mind, and normal mind again. Because of family reasons, Mr. M's family has been poor since childhood. Mr. M's mother is extremely frugal and has the habit of keeping accounts. In the 1980s, she kept accounts accurately to \"points\". Mr. M is also very frugal. Since he joined the work, he has made it clear what his monthly expenses are, lived within his means, and strived to save every month. No matter how difficult it is, even if there is not much monthly salary left after repaying the mortgage, Mr. M still has savings.</p><p>Mr. M said that it is his good living habits of living within his means and correct view of wealth that can keep him from holding shares over the years and not making stock accounts. If you have the idea of changing a car once you make money, buying a good thing when you make money, etc., you can't hold shares calmly; The more ideas, the greater the impact of mood swings, the more anxious investors will be, the more anxious they will be, the more they want to trade, buy and sell, sell and buy, and they will not find the north!</p><p><b>So what's the point of making money? Mr. M admits that wealth brings a sense of security, valuable independence and freedom, but he has never thought about luxury consumption.</b></p><p>Mr. M also believes that value investment seems to be unfast and advancing slowly, but it is actually not slow at all. In the investment decision-making process he has participated in in the past 20 years, it was Tsingtao Brewery, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Kweichow Moutai that started in the past five or six years that laid his own wealth foundation. During the event-driven investment in the middle five years, although he felt that he often made money, looking back, it was actually not fast at all, and it also made people extremely tired and anxious.</p><p>Mr. M said that value investment is a win-win situation and a process of sharing the wealth creation of listed companies, while speculation is an attempt to put money from other people's pockets into one's own pockets, and money earned by luck cannot last long.</p><p>When Silly Money realizes that he is stupid, Silly Money is not stupid; When the leek realized that it couldn't make another leek, all the sickles couldn't cut it.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00745cd781f91ef6ef359064c639fbb","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124602561","content_text":"凭运气赚钱，凭实力亏钱！韭菜能逆袭吗？投资真能改变命运吗？近期A股一波三折，热门赛道白马股和“顶流”基金净值重挫，深陷其中的投资者再度自嘲“韭菜”难逃被收割的命运。本期分享一个普通投资者的真实故事：这是一家两代人投资接力奔跑的故事，M先生的母亲和M先生在26年的时间里，赚取了大约500倍的收益，其中价值投资约为一百倍，事件驱动约为5倍。但在他们投资之路开端的8年时间中，主动投资基本没有赚过钱，期间还要跟着市场沉浮，忍耐大幅回撤的凌虐；但后18年时间中，M先生总结自己的投资错误和别人的成功经验，投资收益获得指数级别增长。M先生总是不厌其烦地与身边的朋友分享：除非你甘愿做一枚韭菜，任人宰割，韭菜通过进化和学习，是可以长成参天大树的；投资要趁早，越早碰得头破血流越好，那个时候本金小年纪轻输得起；股市会帮助自助者，命运是掌握在自己的手中，投资者在找到了正确的方向和路径后，股市能够带来改变命运的回报。一个26年500倍的样本M先生自幼家境清贫，他的妈妈是稀里糊涂一头撞进股市的。1989年，M先生的妈妈所在的公司无法发出工资，就给职工发了面值2000元的内部职工股；1995年，这家公司上市，内部职工股抛售后，M先生的妈妈才有了在股市进行投资的本金。当时的所谓炒股，就是坐在营业部大厅的条凳上看着屏幕翻屏，道听途说，这笔资金在1995年至1998年期间跟着市场沉沉浮浮，整体持平。M先生1997年大学毕业后进入一家大型国企，为了让退休的母亲打发时间，他将自己近两年的积蓄上交给母亲，两人的资金合起来可以入驻中户室。1999年，这笔资金押中了深益力A，深益力A后来被国药一致重组，这笔资金获得了大约一倍半的收益，这在当时算得上是赚了一笔大钱。但是凭运气赚来的钱，还是会凭实力亏回去。在2000年之后的四年大熊市中，这笔资金浮亏了1999年高峰时期70%的钱，其中，2000年到2002年回撤了50%。但重要的转折就发生在2003年，这笔资金开始全仓青岛啤酒和中金岭南，建仓完毕后，这两只个股再度大幅回撤近50%。截至2004年最低点时，已经浮亏掉了1999年高峰时期资金的三分之二。M先生是在2009年卖掉青岛啤酒和中金岭南的，青岛啤酒获利近10倍，中金岭南获利近20倍。M先生清晰地记得，2003年青岛啤酒的初始买入价接近8块，经过股改时期的送股、分红、权证等摊薄，青岛啤酒的买入成本降低至4块多。M先生在2009年以40多元的价格卖出了青岛啤酒，在长达7年的投资期中，获利近10倍。M先生对中金岭南的初始买入成本接近6块，经过股改时期的送股、分红等摊薄后，中金岭南的买入成本降至为1块多。2009年M先生以20多块钱的价格抛出了中金岭南，获利约20倍。但M先生的投资理念仍在摇摆中，2010年至2015年，他尝试了当时市场大热的事件驱动，期间经历了2012年回撤40%和2015年的腰斩，总体收益约为5倍。经过2015年的痛定思痛，M先生再度回到了价值投资之路上，并从2015年末开始重仓茅台，浮盈近10倍。一个“韭菜”百折不挠的晋级之路M先生开始是一枚妥妥的韭菜，凭着运气在股市里沉浮，巨幅的亏损深深地刺痛了M先生。他不甘于做一枚韭菜，从2003年后开始了顽强的晋级之路，完成了从小散到理性价值投资者的转身。他做对了以下几项重要的事：一是学习、学习、再学习。2000年开始的不断浮亏让M先生头皮发麻，他便开始思考如何才能改变这一现状。M先生是理工生，在踏入股市之初，他对经济和股市的运行规律缺乏基本的认知。但他认为，学习是弥补认知不足最好的方式，在移动互联网还没有普及的年代，M先生的学习方式是看电视、订报纸。M先生每晚7:30准时坐在电视机前收看中央电视台的财经频道，从经济信息联播到经济半小时、再到中国股市报道，如果有时间的话，下午的《交易时间》也争取收看，看电视学习的时间持续到晚上10点钟以后，重要的信息还认真地做笔记。M先生还记得2004年开始，经常在报摊买财经报纸看。在长期的学习中，M先生对经济运行逻辑和股市的投资之道形成了基本的认识。二是熟悉、熟悉、再熟悉。M先生自下而上，对自己买入股票的基本面烂熟于心。直到今天，M先生依然能如数家珍般地说出当初买青岛啤酒的几个理由：2000年初，尚年轻的M先生和朋友们喜欢一起去唱K，他发现人们对啤酒的偏好从喜力转向青岛啤酒；青岛啤酒自身也正从“彭作义时代”的扩张战略转向“金志国时代”不仅要市场还要利润阶段；美国AB公司港股私有化哈尔滨啤酒公司，入股青啤，啤酒行业并购整合时代来临，行业巨头初现。至于中金岭南，M先生说，如果长期看新闻，就不难发现中国房地产市场的蓬勃发展，大宗商品价格受此因素推动长期向上，中金岭南当时是行业龙头，自然就选中了中金岭南。尽管不能到实地调研，但他不放过每一个搜寻并完善这只个股投资信息的机会，他甚至能记得这家公司金属矿的经纬度、矿的品位等细节。作为一名典型的理工男，M先生感慨地说，如果不掌握定理和公式，那只会做错题；如果不了解机器设备的构造和性能，肯定就不知道故障在哪里！投资也一样，只有深入细致地了解所持公司的基本面，才能在市场波动中不恐惧。三是独立、独立、再独立。自持有青啤和中金岭南后，随着股价上涨，市值也逐渐增加，M先生的母亲从中户室移入大户室。证券经纪人也另眼相看，为M先生的母亲升级待遇，从一台电脑看行情，到分配两台、三台电脑看行情。M先生因为坚信这是一波大行情且所持有股票是优质标的，就持股不动没有交易。随着时间推移，经纪人坐不住了，开始推荐各种股票，告知各种买入卖出的理由，但M先生不为所动，坚定信心，坚决不交易。经纪人就以房间另有用途为由将M先生的母亲所使用的电脑安排至房间外的过道上。过了一段时间，经纪人又安排其他客户来使用电脑，M先生母亲的待遇从三台电脑再度变成一台电脑。又过了一段时间，经纪人将M先生母亲所使用的电脑作为公用电脑供大厅的客户来使用。最后，M先生只好转迁其它证券公司，在办理手续过程中，前台看到M先生母亲和M先生的市值，立马打电话给经纪人要求挽留，经纪人赶来后无奈地说：“走吧，走吧，不做交易的！”2016年1月份的熔断行情中，市场风声鹤唳、哀嚎遍野，M先生的一位挚友关切地致电给M先生，告知市场极度悲观，可能会一蹶不振。但M先生告诉朋友，贵州茅台的市值只有两千来亿、PE只有12倍，上一财年股息分红每股将有6元以上，股息率达到了3%以上，完全没有必要恐惧。M先生反而选择了加仓。2020年和2021年新能源概念成为市场的大热，身边的朋友几乎都参与其中，但M先生不为所动，依然坚定持有贵州茅台。回首往事，M先生感慨地说，一定要有独立的思考，不为他人的观点所左右。恰恰是独立，才能比身边的亲朋好友有更多的收益。四是平常心、平常心、再平常心。M先生因为家庭原因，自幼家境清贫，M先生的母亲极度节俭，有记账的习惯，八十年代时精确到“分”来记账。M先生也很节俭，自参加工作后，就明确自己每月的开支是多少，量入为出，争取做到每月都有节余。无论再困难，即使还房贷后每月工资所剩不多，M先生也有节余。M先生说，正是自己量入为出的良好生活习惯和正确的财富观，才能让自己这些年持股不动，不打股票账户的主意。如果你一旦有了赚了钱就换部车、赚了钱要买个好东西等诸如此类的想法，就不能淡定持股；想法越多，受情绪波动的影响越大，投资者就会越焦虑，越焦虑就越想交易，买着卖着、卖着买着就找不到北了！那么赚钱的意义何在？M先生坦言，财富带来的是安全感，是可贵的独立和自由，不过，自己从没有想过奢侈消费。M先生还认为，价值投资貌似不快、徐徐前进，其实一点都不慢，在自己参与的近二十年间投资决策过程中，正是开始的青啤、中金岭南，和这五六年间的贵州茅台奠定了自己的财富基础，在中间的五年间的事件驱动投资时，虽然感觉上经常赚钱、但回头看，其实一点也不快，还把人弄得极为疲惫、情绪极度焦虑。M先生表示，价值投资是共赢，是分享上市公司财富创造的过程，而投机是试图将别人口袋的钱装入自己口袋，凭运气赚来的钱无法长久。当傻钱意识到自己傻的时候，傻钱就不傻了；当韭菜意识到不能再做一枚韭菜时，所有的镰刀利器就割不动了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097921361,"gmtCreate":1645319636591,"gmtModify":1676534017868,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097921361","repostId":"1198166588","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198166588","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645314743,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198166588?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-20 07:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Are Hong Kong stocks worthy of our gentle treatment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198166588","media":"兴证资管","summary":"经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。近日，兴证资管","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is near or below 1), Hong Kong stocks will rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound vary. With the valuation of Hong Kong stocks falling to historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks actually doesn't make much sense for investment. Recently, the Wang Delun team of Industrial Securities Asset Management issued a document pointing out that as a rare \"depression\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks are worth investors spending more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Wang Delun said that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. On the contrary, historical experience shows that if the PB of Hong Kong stocks is near or below 1, it will rebound later, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound are different.</p><p><b>The original text is as follows:</b></p><p>If you want to select the \"worst\" stock market in the world in 2021, Hong Kong stocks may have a \"place\". For the whole year of 2021, the Hang Seng Index fell 15%, not performing as well as A-shares, and far worse than major stock indexes such as U.S. stocks and Europe. Looking further at the performance of major sectors in Hong Kong stocks, the decline of some sectors can also be described as \"unparalleled\". For example, the technology sector of Hong Kong stocks fell by as much as 33%, the information technology and healthcare sectors fell by 32% and 28% respectively, and other sectors such as real estate construction and must-have consumption also fell by more than 10%. The continuous decline in the past year has filled the Hong Kong stock market with pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e16de25a7662ff656796effd5cba8f6\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After nearly a year of drastic adjustments, how should we view Hong Kong stocks at the current point in time?<b>Judging from the micro-survey of some institutions, pessimism still dominates.</b>A brief summary of the \"reasons\" for continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks includes arguments such as \"the Federal Reserve rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the upward trend of the 10Y US Treasury yields will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", and there are also views that \"Hong Kong stocks will be dragged down the'deep sea 'because of the collapse of the US stock market.\" Are these \"reasons\" to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks really valid? In this regard, we actually don't have to deeply correct the logical chain inside, we only need to simply trace back the historical data to get a glimpse.</p><p>\"The rate hike of the Federal Reserve will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this argument does not hold true from historical data. We see,<b>During the rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve from 2004 to 2006, Hong Kong stocks soared all the way. Similarly, from 2016 to 2017, in the four rate hike before and after the Federal Reserve, Hong Kong stocks also rose all the way. Judging from experience, the Federal Reserve's rate hike seems to be the logic of being bullish rather than bearish on Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33521bdfab4f65c554ac337546e54bf\" tg-width=\"1408\" tg-height=\"854\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"The upward trend of US Treasury yields in 10Y will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this logic is not supported by historical data.</b>A simple comparison of the trends of US Treasury yields and Hong Kong stocks in 10Y shows that the latter has risen sharply many times during the sharp rise of the former.<b>Typically, 2007, the second half of 2009, the second half of 2012 to 2013, the second quarter of 2015, the fourth quarter of 2016, and the first quarter of 2020 to 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfd6e0f890cf712b65edfd5282732be\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The argument that \"the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is still not valid.</b>We may be accustomed to judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of exchange rate. But in fact, the relationship between them is very unstable. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, while the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Similarly, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, the RMB exchange rate weakened and Hong Kong stocks rose, continuing to \"coexist\". On the contrary, we can also see that,<b>Since the second half of 2020, the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating all the way, while Hong Kong stocks have \"risen first and then fallen\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fac960f3949470544e6418cc733fd9\" tg-width=\"1452\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the upward trend of the 10Y US Treasury yields, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate cannot be the core logical support for judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks, especially the weakening of Hong Kong stocks. Like them,<b>U.S. stocks cannot be simply used to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</b>A brief review of the performance of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks in the past 10 years shows that it is very easy to find that they frequently diverge and diverge.<b>When U.S. stocks rise, Hong Kong stocks may not necessarily rise; When U.S. stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks often don't \"follow\".</b>Of course, if it is determined that the U.S. stock market is going to collapse, then Hong Kong stocks will generally feel more uncomfortable. But the premise is, will the US stock market collapse? In the past 10 years, being bearish on U.S. stocks and being bearish on domestic housing prices have always been the two easiest and most frequently \"slapped in the face\" views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a931c95ea1e4226c697f2f7e0e869f\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A simple review of historical data can intuitively find that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. We follow the method of historical induction and summary, instead of discussing specific logic,<b>Simply review the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of Hong Kong stock valuation. Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is around or below 1), Hong Kong stocks will usher in a rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound vary.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706504053c2b9738cc7ba401565068b3\" tg-width=\"1428\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Historical experience tells us that when the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has fallen to historical lows, it actually doesn't make much sense for investment to continue to be short on Hong Kong stocks.</b>As a rare \"depression\" in the world at present, Hong Kong stocks are worth spending more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, as the world's major stock indexes continue to adjust, Hong Kong stocks have risen \"against the trend\", which is enough to deserve our attention and seriousness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f867862f845af52bc191d2a119d08a\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Investment is risky, so decision-making needs to be cautious. The views expressed in this article only represent the current judgment of the macro market, which may be adjusted with changes in the market environment, and do not constitute any relevant investment suggestions and forecasts for any information screen audience.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645314773710","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are Hong Kong stocks worthy of our gentle treatment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre Hong Kong stocks worthy of our gentle treatment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">兴证资管</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-20 07:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is near or below 1), Hong Kong stocks will rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound vary. With the valuation of Hong Kong stocks falling to historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks actually doesn't make much sense for investment. Recently, the Wang Delun team of Industrial Securities Asset Management issued a document pointing out that as a rare \"depression\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks are worth investors spending more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Wang Delun said that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. On the contrary, historical experience shows that if the PB of Hong Kong stocks is near or below 1, it will rebound later, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound are different.</p><p><b>The original text is as follows:</b></p><p>If you want to select the \"worst\" stock market in the world in 2021, Hong Kong stocks may have a \"place\". For the whole year of 2021, the Hang Seng Index fell 15%, not performing as well as A-shares, and far worse than major stock indexes such as U.S. stocks and Europe. Looking further at the performance of major sectors in Hong Kong stocks, the decline of some sectors can also be described as \"unparalleled\". For example, the technology sector of Hong Kong stocks fell by as much as 33%, the information technology and healthcare sectors fell by 32% and 28% respectively, and other sectors such as real estate construction and must-have consumption also fell by more than 10%. The continuous decline in the past year has filled the Hong Kong stock market with pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e16de25a7662ff656796effd5cba8f6\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After nearly a year of drastic adjustments, how should we view Hong Kong stocks at the current point in time?<b>Judging from the micro-survey of some institutions, pessimism still dominates.</b>A brief summary of the \"reasons\" for continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks includes arguments such as \"the Federal Reserve rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the upward trend of the 10Y US Treasury yields will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", and there are also views that \"Hong Kong stocks will be dragged down the'deep sea 'because of the collapse of the US stock market.\" Are these \"reasons\" to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks really valid? In this regard, we actually don't have to deeply correct the logical chain inside, we only need to simply trace back the historical data to get a glimpse.</p><p>\"The rate hike of the Federal Reserve will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this argument does not hold true from historical data. We see,<b>During the rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve from 2004 to 2006, Hong Kong stocks soared all the way. Similarly, from 2016 to 2017, in the four rate hike before and after the Federal Reserve, Hong Kong stocks also rose all the way. Judging from experience, the Federal Reserve's rate hike seems to be the logic of being bullish rather than bearish on Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33521bdfab4f65c554ac337546e54bf\" tg-width=\"1408\" tg-height=\"854\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"The upward trend of US Treasury yields in 10Y will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this logic is not supported by historical data.</b>A simple comparison of the trends of US Treasury yields and Hong Kong stocks in 10Y shows that the latter has risen sharply many times during the sharp rise of the former.<b>Typically, 2007, the second half of 2009, the second half of 2012 to 2013, the second quarter of 2015, the fourth quarter of 2016, and the first quarter of 2020 to 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfd6e0f890cf712b65edfd5282732be\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The argument that \"the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is still not valid.</b>We may be accustomed to judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of exchange rate. But in fact, the relationship between them is very unstable. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, while the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Similarly, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, the RMB exchange rate weakened and Hong Kong stocks rose, continuing to \"coexist\". On the contrary, we can also see that,<b>Since the second half of 2020, the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating all the way, while Hong Kong stocks have \"risen first and then fallen\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fac960f3949470544e6418cc733fd9\" tg-width=\"1452\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the upward trend of the 10Y US Treasury yields, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate cannot be the core logical support for judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks, especially the weakening of Hong Kong stocks. Like them,<b>U.S. stocks cannot be simply used to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</b>A brief review of the performance of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks in the past 10 years shows that it is very easy to find that they frequently diverge and diverge.<b>When U.S. stocks rise, Hong Kong stocks may not necessarily rise; When U.S. stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks often don't \"follow\".</b>Of course, if it is determined that the U.S. stock market is going to collapse, then Hong Kong stocks will generally feel more uncomfortable. But the premise is, will the US stock market collapse? In the past 10 years, being bearish on U.S. stocks and being bearish on domestic housing prices have always been the two easiest and most frequently \"slapped in the face\" views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a931c95ea1e4226c697f2f7e0e869f\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A simple review of historical data can intuitively find that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. We follow the method of historical induction and summary, instead of discussing specific logic,<b>Simply review the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of Hong Kong stock valuation. Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is around or below 1), Hong Kong stocks will usher in a rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound vary.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706504053c2b9738cc7ba401565068b3\" tg-width=\"1428\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Historical experience tells us that when the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has fallen to historical lows, it actually doesn't make much sense for investment to continue to be short on Hong Kong stocks.</b>As a rare \"depression\" in the world at present, Hong Kong stocks are worth spending more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, as the world's major stock indexes continue to adjust, Hong Kong stocks have risen \"against the trend\", which is enough to deserve our attention and seriousness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f867862f845af52bc191d2a119d08a\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Investment is risky, so decision-making needs to be cautious. The views expressed in this article only represent the current judgment of the macro market, which may be adjusted with changes in the market environment, and do not constitute any relevant investment suggestions and forecasts for any information screen audience.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652344\">兴证资管</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652344","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198166588","content_text":"经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。近日，兴证资管王德伦团队发文指出，作为目前全球少有的“洼地”，港股2022年，值得投资者花更多时间研究、挖掘投资机会。王德伦表示，当前常见的看空港股逻辑，都没有历史数据的支持。反而是，历史经验显示，港股PB在1附近或以下，随后都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。原文如下：如果要评选2021年全球“最惨”的股票市场，港股可能有“一席之地”。2021年全年，恒生指数大跌15%，表现不及A股，并远差于美股及欧洲等主要股指。进一步看港股中主要板块的表现，部分板块的跌幅也可谓“一骑绝尘”。比如，港股科技板块跌幅高达33%，信息技术、医疗保健板块跌幅分别达到32%、28%，其他的如地产建筑、必选消费等板块跌幅也超过10%。近1年的跌跌不休，使港股市场充斥着悲观情绪。经历了近1年的剧烈调整后，站在当前时点，我们应该怎么看待港股？从部分机构的微观调研情况来看，悲观情绪依然占据主导。简单汇总继续看空港股的“理由”，既有“美联储加息会打压港股”、“10Y美债利率上行会打压港股”、“人民币汇率趋于贬值会打压港股”等论调，也有观点提出“港股会因为美股崩盘而被拖下‘深海’”。这些看空港股的“理由”，是否真的成立？对此，我们实际上不必深纠里面的逻辑链条，只需要简单回溯历史数据，便能一窥究竟。“美联储加息会打压港股”，这一论调，从历史数据来看，并不成立。我们看到，2004年至2006年的美联储加息周期中，港股一路大涨。同样的，2016年至2017年，美联储前后4次加息中，港股也一路上涨。总结经验来看，美联储加息，似乎可以成为看多、而非看空港股的逻辑。“10Y美债利率上行会打压港股”，这一逻辑，也没有历史数据的支持。简单比较10Y美债利率和港股的走势，可以发现，后者多次在前者大幅上行期间，一路大涨。典型的有，2007年、2009年下半年、2012年下半年至2013年、2015年2季度、2016年4季度，以及2020年至2021年1季度。“人民币汇率趋于贬值会打压港股”，这一论调，依然不成立。我们可能习惯于从汇率角度，去判断港股走势。但实际上，它们之间的关系，非常不稳定。比如，2013年4季度至2015年2季度，人民币汇率持续走弱的同时，港股出现大幅上涨。同样的，2016年2季度至2017年2季度，人民币汇率走弱和港股上涨，持续“共存”。相反，我们也可以看到，2020年下半年至今，人民币汇率一路升值，而港股“先涨后跌”。美联储加息、10Y美债利率上行、人民币汇率贬值，都无法成为判断港股走势、尤其是判定港股将走弱的核心逻辑支撑。与它们一样，美股，也不能简单用于判断港股的走势。简单回顾过去10年港股和美股的表现，能非常容易地发现，它们频繁分化、背离。美股涨的时候，港股不一定涨；美股跌的时候，港股很多时候也不会“跟”。当然，如果认定美股要崩盘，那港股一般会比较难受。但前提是，美股会崩盘吗？过去10年，看空美股和看空国内房价，一直是最容易、最高频被“打脸”的两个观点。简单回顾历史数据，就能直观地发现，当前常见的看空港股的逻辑，都没有历史数据的支持。我们沿用历史归纳总结的方法，不讨论具体逻辑，简单从港股估值角度出发，回顾港股走势。经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。历史经验告诉了我们，在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。作为目前全球少有的“洼地”，港股2022年，值得我们花更多时间研究、挖掘投资机会。2022年初至今，全球主要股指持续调整之际，港股“逆势”上涨，已经足够值得我们重视和认真对待。风险提示：投资有风险，决策需谨慎。本文所表达观点仅代表对宏观市场的当期判断，可能随市场环境变化而产生调整，不构成任何信息屏受众群体的任何相关投资建议与预测。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098238929,"gmtCreate":1644134711216,"gmtModify":1676533893588,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098238929","repostId":"2209328505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209328505","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200"},"pubTimestamp":1644128657,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209328505?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-06 14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Big bargain hunting! 60 trillion yuan asset management giant new products launched and bought these stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209328505","media":"中国基金报","summary":"近期，世界头号资管巨头贝莱德旗下一只中国科技ETF-iShares MSCI China Multisector Tech ETF (安硕MSCI中国多行业科技ETF，代码TCHI)于纳斯达克上市。这","content":"<p><div>Recently, a China technology ETF-iShares MSCI China Multisector Tech ETF (iShares MSCI China Multisector Technology ETF, code TCHI) owned by BlackRock, the world's number one asset management giant, was listed on Nasdaq. This is the first Chinese technology ETF under the 63.6 trillion yuan asset management giant BlackRock. TCHI tracks MSCI's technology index, and the parent index is the MSCI China Index. Information disclosure materials show that the technology index tracked by TCHI is from 27 technology-related sub-sectors in the MSCI China Index...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big bargain hunting! 60 trillion yuan asset management giant new products launched and bought these stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig bargain hunting! 60 trillion yuan asset management giant new products launched and bought these stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/6\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-06 14:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Recently, a China technology ETF-iShares MSCI China Multisector Tech ETF (iShares MSCI China Multisector Technology ETF, code TCHI) owned by BlackRock, the world's number one asset management giant, was listed on Nasdaq. This is the first Chinese technology ETF under the 63.6 trillion yuan asset management giant BlackRock. TCHI tracks MSCI's technology index, and the parent index is the MSCI China Index. Information disclosure materials show that the technology index tracked by TCHI is from 27 technology-related sub-sectors in the MSCI China Index...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","KWEB":"中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares","BK1184":"人寿与健康保险","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","HSI":"恒生指数","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK1507":"粤港澳大湾区","BK1550":"内险股","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","02318":"中国平安","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","MCHI":"中国ETF-iShares MSCI","03086":"华夏纳指","NTES":"网易","BLK":"贝莱德"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209328505","content_text":"近期，世界头号资管巨头贝莱德旗下一只中国科技ETF-iShares MSCI China Multisector Tech ETF (安硕MSCI中国多行业科技ETF，代码TCHI)于纳斯达克上市。这是63.6万亿元资管巨头贝莱德旗下首只中国科技ETF。TCHI跟踪MSCI 旗下的科技指数，母指数是MSCI中国指数。信息披露材料显示，TCHI跟踪的科技指数从MSCI中国指数中27个科技相关子行业中挑选成分股，涉及通讯服务、可选消费、金融、医疗健康，工业，信息技术等领域。TCHI1月25日上市，截至2月3日，ETF净值上涨3.08%。TCHI买了哪些股票呢？截至2月3日，TCHI的前十大重仓股为百度、腾讯、舜宇光学科技、网易、京东、宁德时代、小米、美团、阿里巴巴、拼多多。对于不少美国和中国香港市场同时上市的股票，指数优先选择了中国香港上市股份。前十大重仓股中，港股占据7席。从行业分布来看，这只指数前五大重仓行业为信息技术、通讯、可选消费、工业、金融等。投资者抄底中国科技股目前美国上市的规模超过10亿美元的中国股票ETF包括景顺旗下的CQQQ，道富环球旗下的SPDR 标普中国ETF GXC 德意志银行旗下的ASHR， 安硕中国大盘ETF-FXI，安硕MSCI中国ETF(MCHI)，金瑞中证中国互联网ETF(KWEB)。其中KWEB，最新规模72.6亿美元为美国最大的中国股票ETF。尽管6只规模以上中国ETF中，贝莱德旗下的指数品牌安硕占据了两席，但是世界头号ETF大厂贝莱德可能未必满意这样战果。要知道，过去很长一段时间以来，它旗下的两只中国ETF一直为美国中国股票ETF规模排行榜的第一和第二名。谁能料到，2021年，中概互联网跌跌不休，然而美国投资者对中国互联网的兴致盎然，MCHI从宝座跌落。中金公司旗下的金瑞基金发行的KWEB成为美国最大中国股票ETF。捕捉到了投资者对中国科技、互联网行业兴致的贝莱德指数品牌安硕，迅速行动上线了TCHI。进入2022年，数据显示，美国投资者对中国科技互联网的热情并未退潮。2022年以来，KWEB继续吸金。2022年1月1日至2月5日，KWEB已经吸引了超过9亿美元资金净流入。2022年以来，KWEB的资金流入情况来源：ETF.com重仓港股无论是KWEB还是贝莱德刚刚上市的TCHI，持仓中港股占比都很高。经历了两年的熊市之后，如今机构对港股的呼声很高。而虎年首个交易日，港股也确实给了一个漂亮开门红。大年初四，春节后首个交易日，港股各大指数集体高开，恒生指数高开2.48%，科技、消费涨幅居前，恒生科技指数涨2.56%，截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨2.71%，报24447.31点；国企指数涨2.22%，红筹指数涨2.01%。港股大金融板块走强，银行股中，汇丰、渣打涨超4%，招商银行涨超3%；保险股中，中国平安涨超4%，友邦保险涨超3%，中国太保、中国人寿等纷纷上涨。另外，港股科技股集体大涨，阿里巴巴、百度集团涨超5%，哔哩哔哩涨超4%，美团、网易涨超2%。美国的纯被动ETF不追求超额收益，只追求尽可能地贴合指数表现。但是，由于指数中港股占比高，港股市场的表现无疑影响ETF表现。贝莱德基金：港股投资窗口已打开全球头号资管巨头贝莱德多次表达对中国市场重视。例如，贝莱德集团CEO拉里。芬克曾在“致股东的信”中写道：中国市场拥有重要机遇，有助于帮助中国以及国际投资者长期投资目标。同时，它也给了贝莱德帮助中国数百万的居民应对养老挑战的机遇。贝莱德国内独资公募贝莱德基金投资总监陆文杰近期表示，港股的投资窗口已经打开。据本报此前报道，陆文杰认为，2022年港股机会可能优于A股。“经过去年的大幅度下跌，港股股票估值已经比较低，大部分行业的估值在历史中位数以下。而且，投资者预期也较低。从PE看，港股是全球主要市场中最低的，港股主板估值比A股低15%~20%。恒生科技的估值只是A股创业板的1/3”。在同一篇报道中， 陆文杰强调，估值低、基本面改善不意味着可以炒港股的反弹。配置港股，是资产配置的需要。“港股相对A股有折价，但并不是说A股行情会在港股重新演绎一遍，两个市场逻辑不同。港股的机会是多元宽泛的，各个行业、各个主题都有机会，而A股往往会聚焦在一些特别热门的赛道。”在板块和行业方面，陆文杰看好多个方向，包括消费、互联网、生物医药等。另一资管巨头先锋领航中国基金也将发行2021年11月底，共同基金巨头美国先锋领航集团宣布拟推出中国基金-Vanguard China Select Stock Fund。可能有人会感到奇怪，被动投资巨头为什么要推出一只主动管理的中国股票基金。但实际上，先锋领航旗下主动管理产品的总规模也有1.8万亿美元，它也是一家主动管理巨头。从先锋领航集团向美国证交会提交的申请材料看，基金可能于2022年3月发行。先锋领航集团将与两位中国投资实力雄厚的投资顾问合作，威灵顿管理和柏基。威灵顿管理与先锋领航合作时间很长。柏基对中国科技公司的研究非常深入，也是全球最知名的科技股捕手。先锋领航集团在新闻发布稿中表示，基金致力于超越基准提供阿尔法收益。这只基金选择MSCI中国全指数为基准。同时，也试图在费率上比同类基金更优惠。来源：SEC此外，富达国际也将推出中国ESG基金。外围噪音不断，但是国际巨头布局中国的步伐没有发生大的变化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLK":0.9,"HSI":0.6,"QNETCN":0.9,"02318":0.6,"TTTN":0.9,"NTES":0.6,"HHImain":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"MCHI":1,"KWEB":1,"03086":0.87,"HSImain":0.9,"MHImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036454829,"gmtCreate":1647205714198,"gmtModify":1676534201741,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yed","listText":"Yed","text":"Yed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036454829","repostId":"2219424094","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2219424094","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647141612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2219424094?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-13 11:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Where will the market go under geopolitical turmoil and the epidemic?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219424094","media":"智通财经网","summary":"投资要点本周话题：地缘动荡与疫情下，市场将何去何从?1)  地缘因素短期内仍将支撑大宗商品价格高位震荡，俄乌冲突的演进态势将决定大宗商品价格上涨的可持续性。短期内，俄乌危机大概率难以解决。地缘政治风险","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Investment Key Points</p><p><b>This week's topic: Where will the market go under geopolitical turmoil and epidemic situation?</b></p><p>1) Geopolitical factors will still support high volatility in commodity prices in the short term, and the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the sustainability of rising commodity prices. In the short term, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to be difficult to resolve. Geopolitical risks will continue to affect market sentiment, expectations of supply tightening will increase, and related commodity prices will remain high. Even if some countries choose to put pressure on the rise of commodities by increasing production or finding alternative energy sources in the future, the difficulty in changing the supply and demand pattern in the short term limits the decline in commodity prices. Taken together, under the premise of long-term geopolitical turmoil, commodity prices are likely to remain at a high level.</p><p>2) The Fed's more hawkish than expected may put pressure on high-valuation sectors. Against the background of high inflation in the United States and geopolitical conflicts exacerbating the inflation dilemma, the Fed's policy adjustment is likely to be a foregone conclusion. However, the recent continued fermentation of geopolitical risks may affect the future U.S. economic growth prospects, which will also lead the Fed to be more cautious and flexible in monetary policy decisions. Before U.S. stocks, the U.S. economy, and inflation fall sharply, the Fed's hawkish statements will continue to exceed expectations. Even if the pace of rate hike slows down in the short term, the overall tightening is likely to exceed expectations. Judging from the recent signals released by the Federal Reserve, March may tend to be 25bp instead of 50bp in rate hike, but there is a high probability that the shrinking balance sheet time will be advanced, and the possibility of starting a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the second quarter cannot be ruled out.</p><p>3) The domestic epidemic disturbance strengthens the configuration logic of \"both offensive and defensive\". Recently, the domestic epidemic has spread, and the overseas novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is high. With a large proportion of Omicron infections in neighboring countries and regions, the pressure of domestic prevention and control is expected to further increase. Under repeated epidemics, the recovery of consumption has weakened. Assuming that stronger epidemic prevention and control measures are taken in the future, the role of exports in stimulating the economy may also be weakened this year. The weakness of consumption and exports may put more serious pressure on the economic downturn in the short term, but in the medium term, there is a high probability that it will guide policies to increase support for stabilizing growth. It will take time for the market to recover, but the end of the adjustment may be approaching.</p><p>4) Which industry segments are revising their earnings estimates upwards?: The upstream is strong, and the middle and lower reaches are under pressure. March-April is a good time window to observe industries with high prosperity throughout the year. At present, the market in March has begun to gradually reflect the performance expectations of the first quarterly report. In the middle and late April, the market will enter a period of intensive disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report results. The market often has the seasonal characteristics of \"spring restlessness and April decision-making\". After the annual report and the first quarterly report results are disclosed, the market will generally adjust the profit forecast of listed companies. At present, the market has always been divided on \"whether the efforts to stabilize growth are effective\", so we try to find out which companies' steady growth recovery is sustainable by looking for marginal changes in profit forecasts, and how the fundamentals are expected to change.</p><p>Key points of investment: Still focusing on low-valuation blue chips, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic substitution, military industry, anti-epidemic and gold sectors. Under the background that geopolitical conflicts have triggered shocks in the global capital market, market risk aversion has risen sharply, and the spread of domestic epidemics in many places has not been contained. Investment opportunities in low-valued blue chips are still the most stable main line of the market. Although the overall valuation of growth stocks is subject to rising inflation, in terms of specific allocation, the following breakdowns are still worthy of attention: 1) Demand for domestic substitution in the entire West: This crisis has made the relationship between the EU, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom and the United States closer. From the perspective of supply chain security, except for the United States, the domestic substitution of key components from the entire Western major alliance may accelerate in the future. 3) For epidemic prevention items in medicine, considering the transmission ability of new viruses, in addition to nucleic acid testing, ventilators, etc., focus on new vaccines such as mRNA. 4) Risk aversion affects the market, overseas inflation remains high, and geopolitical conflicts superimpose the global economy. In the downturn, it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of the gold sector.</p><p>Risk warning: Geopolitical turmoil has intensified, the domestic Omicron epidemic has broken out more than expected, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic monetary policy liquidity have tightened more than expected, and the public information used in the research report may have lagging information or untimely updates.</p><p>text</p><p><b>This week's topic: Where will the market go under geopolitical turmoil and the epidemic?</b></p><p><b>1.1 Geopolitical factors will still support commodity prices in the short term</b></p><p>Recently, geopolitical risks have continued to stir up the market. Due to the particularity of Russia and Ukraine in the pricing of some global resource products, disputes between the two countries may lead commodity prices upward. Except for crude oil, whose price is already at historically high levels, the prices of agrochemical products and non-ferrous metals have generally risen. The spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also spread to the international logistics market, and shipping prices have risen. The reason is that in addition to geopolitical conflicts that have further aggravated the originally tight supply situation of energy, crops and metals, it also includes transportation obstructions and market expectations caused by Western countries' sanctions and restrictions on Russia.</p><p>The current geopolitical conflict is not over yet, and market expectations mainly follow the changes in the situation between Russia and Ukraine and quickly reflect the trend of commodity prices. On March 9, the situation between Russia and Ukraine showed initial signs of easing, which had a significant impact on the capital market. On that day, oil prices and non-ferrous metal prices fell sharply. However, the collective decline in commodity prices actually reflects more changes in sentiment than improvements in fundamentals. Therefore, it is too early to assert that the \"price increase tide\" is coming to an end. Recently, although the VIX index has fallen, it is still at a high level. We can see that the market risk aversion has not completely eased.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the sustainability of rising commodity prices. The current prospect of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also unclear. Judging from the multiple rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the information disclosed by both parties since then, Russia and Ukraine have a tough stance and have not yet reached an agreement on a ceasefire agreement. Moreover, NATO countries frequently send weapons and equipment to Ukraine. It also hinders the easing of the conflict. In the short term, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to be difficult to resolve. Geopolitical risks will continue to affect market sentiment, and increasing expectations of tightening supply will push up related commodity prices. Even if some countries choose to put pressure on the rise of commodities in the future by increasing production (such as some OPEC members stating that they will increase crude oil production) or looking for alternative energy sources (the EU proposes to accelerate the promotion of renewable energy), the supply and demand pattern will be difficult to change in the short term. The extent to which commodity prices fell. Taken together, under the premise of long-term geopolitical turmoil, commodity prices are likely to remain at a high level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cdd2ef4d240452ced73725f02ac3e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ff090db7fa96fcbb78bd9fdbdf8219b\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"780\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.2 The Fed's more hawkish than expected may put pressure on high-valuation sectors</b></p><p>Against the background of high inflation in the United States and geopolitical conflicts exacerbating the inflation dilemma, the Fed's policy adjustment may be a foregone conclusion. On March 10, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. CPI rose by 7.9% year-on-year in February, a 40-year high, and the core CPI growth rate rose to 6.4% year-on-year. Considering that commodity prices may remain high due to the disturbance of geopolitical conflicts, there is a possibility that high inflation in the U.S. economy will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. The severe inflation situation has strengthened the need for the Fed to tighten monetary policy. The unexpected recovery in employment in March also provided more room for the Fed to shift its monetary policy. On the whole, the Fed's policy adjustment may be a foregone conclusion.</p><p>Since December last year, the Federal Reserve has frequently released rate hike signals, mainly due to the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and the most urgent pressure on inflation. However, the recent continued fermentation of geopolitical risks may affect the future U.S. economic growth prospects, which will also lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious and flexible in monetary policy decisions.</p><p>Before U.S. stocks, the U.S. economy, and inflation fall sharply, there is a high probability that the Fed's hawkish statement will continue to exceed expectations. Although geopolitical conflicts may inhibit the future economic growth of the United States to a certain extent, the basic principles of economic normalization have not changed, and inflation is currently high. The Fed's top priority is still to strengthen the guidance of inflation expectations by maintaining a hawkish policy stance. Even if the pace of rate hike slows down in the short term, the overall tightening is likely to exceed expectations. Earlier, Powell released a clearer signal about the pace and intensity of tightening in his testimony on the semi-annual monetary policy report at a congressional hearing. In terms of the magnitude of rate hike, the Federal Reserve may prefer the March rate hike of 25bp instead of 50bp, but the shrinking balance sheet time will most likely be advanced, and the possibility of starting a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the second quarter cannot be ruled out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b7eacdc1fe87b4aa08a15685d974a3\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.3 Domestic epidemic disturbance strengthens the configuration logic of \"both offensive and defensive\"</b></p><p>Recently, the domestic epidemic situation has spread in many places. The number of reported COVID-19 infections nationwide continues to remain high, and the number of provinces involved in the epidemic continues to increase. The main infection strains are Omicron variants. As of March 9, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 402 new local confirmed cases and 435 local asymptomatic infections. There is a new feature in this round of epidemic, that is, since the 6th, the number of new local asymptomatic infections in a single day has been higher than the number of new local cases for four consecutive days.</p><p>The Omicron variant spreads faster and has milder infection symptoms than other variants, so punctate sporadic or even local outbreaks are more likely to occur. With the high incidence of overseas novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemics, with a large proportion of Omicron infections in neighboring countries and regions, domestic prevention and control pressure is expected to further increase. Under the direction of epidemic recovery, the demand for epidemic prevention, epidemic control and other related products will remain high, and funds will mostly flow to ventilators, special vaccines, special drugs and other tracks.</p><p>Under repeated epidemics, the recovery of consumption has weakened. In addition to the lack of scenarios caused by prevention and control restrictions, which dragged down consumption, the epidemic also inhibited residents' spending power and willingness, which was reflected in the fact that residents' income and expenditure grew at the same rate before the epidemic, and the gap after the epidemic widened significantly. At present, consumption recovery is the general trend under the policy of stabilizing growth, but when the epidemic has not been fully controlled, consumption recovery is weakening.</p><p>Assuming that stronger epidemic prevention and control measures are taken in the future, the role of exports in stimulating the economy may also be weakened this year. In the past two years, the high export boom has been one of the most important driving forces supporting my country's economic resilience. However, as economies around the world gradually adapt to the \"normalization of the epidemic\", after June 2021, my country's global export share has returned to 14%, the pre-epidemic level. As overseas supply chains may enter a trend recovery, coupled with the rise in my country's labor costs, export growth may be weak and under increasing pressure.</p><p>The weakness of consumption and exports will put more serious pressure on the economic downturn in the short term, but in the medium term, it may guide policies to increase support for stabilizing growth. It will take time for the market to recover, but the end of the adjustment may be approaching.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59f2a3c0a40eadb62b670af68dcdbb2\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528312a622c08c7c81d9aaf8023457a9\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.4 Which industry segments are revising their earnings estimates upwards?: Strong upstream, pressure on midstream and downstream</b></p><p>March-April is a good time window to observe industries with high prosperity throughout the year. At present, the market in March has begun to gradually reflect the performance expectations of the first quarterly report. In the middle and late April, the market will enter a period of intensive disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report results. The market often has the seasonal characteristics of \"spring restlessness and April decision-making\". After the annual report and the first quarterly report results are disclosed, the market will generally adjust the profit forecast of listed companies. At present, the market has always been divided on \"whether the efforts to stabilize growth are effective\", so we try to find out which companies' steady growth recovery is sustainable by looking for marginal changes in profit forecasts, and how the fundamentals are expected to change.</p><p>Overall, the upstream is strong, while the middle and lower reaches are under pressure. The industries with raised profit forecasts in 22 years are mainly in the infrastructure industry chain, new energy vehicle industry chain and pharmaceutical sector. Primary industries that have increased in the past two months: non-ferrous metals (2.87%), basic chemicals (1.04%), electricity and public utilities (0.84%), steel (0.71%), etc.</p><p>Upstream: The areas where raw material profits in the upstream sector have increased focus on infrastructure-related industries, among which rare metals, environmentally friendly public utilities, and chemical raw materials have increased. On the other hand, domestic economic and financial data from January to February will also be released, which will become an important basis for the market to judge the effect of \"steady growth\" in the early stage and predict the rhythm and intensity of subsequent policies. With the layout of \"steady growth\" and long-term high-quality development, the prosperity related to infrastructure is expected to continue.</p><p>In the midstream industry, the upward revision of profit forecasts focuses on subdivided tracks with high demand and prosperity, such as new energy batteries, automotive electronics, lithium batteries/photovoltaics/semiconductor equipment, and the prosperity continues to remain high. Profit forecasts for semiconductors, electronic components, and computer equipment in the TMT sector have been raised. At the same time, profit expectations in the field of special machinery in machinery and equipment have also continued to rise. In mid-to-late March, on the one hand, the prosperity indicators of popular tracks, such as the sales of new energy vehicles, are released one after another. The prosperity expectations of popular tracks in the current market are quite different, and relevant data will become an important signal to confirm the prosperity. On the other hand, the prosperity of conceptual fields in subdivided fields such as semiconductor equipment, cloud computing, and optical communications may have a reversal trend.</p><p>Among downstream consumption, the profit forecasts of commerce, agriculture and medical services, and medical circulation sectors have been significantly raised. Affected by the dual impact of cost pressure and the setback on the demand side caused by the recurrence of the epidemic, the growth rate of the food and beverage industry has slowed down, and the internal performance of the consumer sector has also shown significant differentiation. Compared with the profit downward adjustment in 21 years, the expected reversal of trade and retail has obviously been reversed, and the profit forecast in 22 years has been raised by about 20%. There is still no obvious upward revision in the performance of must-select consumption. In the overall consumption, the profit expectation of optional is still better than that of must-select. However, in the short term, some varieties of grain, including agricultural chemicals, are affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, and price increases are expected to be relatively strong. Affected by this geopolitical conflict, global related<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>The price is at a high level, which may boost the prosperity of agricultural products, and at the same time affect the expectation of live pig prices. This aspect deserves continuous observation.</p><p><b>1.5 Investment points: Still focusing on low-valuation blue chips, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic substitution, military industry, anti-epidemic, and gold sectors</b></p><p>Under the background that geopolitical conflicts have triggered shocks in the global capital market, market risk aversion has risen sharply, and the spread of domestic epidemics in many places has not been contained. Investment opportunities in low-valued blue chips are still the most stable main line of the market. Although the overall valuation of growth stocks is subject to rising inflation, in terms of specific allocation, the following breakdown is still worthy of attention:</p><p>1) Demand for domestic substitution in the entire West: This crisis has caused the EU, Japan and South Korea to completely fall towards and bind the United Kingdom and the United States. From the perspective of supply chain security, except for the United States, the rest come from key components in the entire Western alliance. Domestic substitution may accelerate in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to: semiconductor upstream materials, Huawei chip-related software ecology, etc.</p><p>2) With the display of Western modern equipment during the war, the increasing nuclear deterrence and military industry of both sides, especially the OEMs that benefited from the final year of the three-year pilot reform of state-owned enterprises this year, deserve special attention.</p><p>3) For epidemic prevention items in medicine, considering the transmission ability of the virus, in addition to nucleic acid testing, ventilators, etc., focus on new vaccines such as mRNA.</p><p>4) Risk aversion affects the market, overseas inflation remains high, and geopolitical conflicts are superimposed on the global economic downturn. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of the gold sector.</p><p><b>Market Review and Outlook</b></p><p>Style index: Market conditions generally fell this week. The CSI 500 and small and medium-sized board index led the decline. In terms of activity, the turnover rate of various industries generally rebounded, and the turnover rate of Shenzhen Component Index increased significantly.</p><p>Major industries: Healthcare and daily consumption performed relatively well this week, while optional consumption and real estate performed relatively sluggish. In terms of activity, the energy turnover rate dropped significantly, and the healthcare turnover rate rebounded significantly.</p><p>Primary industries: Primary industries generally fell this week, led by home appliances and non-ferrous metals. In terms of activity, the turnover rate of medicine and media has rebounded relatively significantly, while the turnover rate of national defense and military industries has declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b77bbe4f011209d0f61398519d4b870\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d58f4dc49d2ba695c284f3f2b140070\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Three sentiment indicator tracking</b></p><p>Market-wide activity: Since 2010, the average daily turnover rate of all A has been roughly 0.4%-1.4%. After smoothing on the 20th, the turnover rate of all A dropped slightly this week. As of March 11, the single-day turnover rate reached 1.36%, which is 82.43% of the historical quantile. The turnover rate range of GEM is roughly 2%-8%. After smoothing on the 20th, the turnover rate of GEM fluctuates and rises. As of March 11, 2022, the single-day turnover rate of the GEM is 13.50%, which is 90.6% of the historical quantile.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91bd77cd124660b4b931da83a84f0e2\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On-site financing: The financing balance rebounded slightly this week. As of March 10, the financing balance was 1,619.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.63 billion yuan from last week. On the 5th, after smoothing, the proportion of financing purchases in the total market turnover decreased by-0.2% compared with last week.</p><p>Index of sub-new shares: After smoothing on the 5th day, the turnover rate of sub-new shares rebounded slightly compared with last week. As of March 11th, the average turnover rate of sub-new shares on the 5th day reached 9.12%, which was at the historical quantile of 87.14%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b3f83e23e7b8c86169632226e8093d\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Four valuation indicator tracking</b></p><p>Valuation of major industries: The valuation levels of basic non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, national defense and military industry, automobiles, consumer services, food and beverage and electronics industries in PB valuation are higher than the historical average;</p><p>Valuation of major industries: In PE valuation, the valuation level of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, public utilities, leisure services, electrical equipment, automobiles and comprehensive industries is higher than the historical average;</p><p>Industries with PE valuation and PB valuation at historically high levels: the valuation levels of food and beverage and automobile industries are higher than the historical average;</p><p>Main indexes: PB valuation SSE 50, GEM index valuation level is higher than historical average;</p><p>Main index: PE valuation SSE 50, the valuation level of small and medium-sized board index is higher than the historical average;</p><p>PE valuation and PB valuation are both at historically high indexes: the valuation level of SSE 50 is higher than the historical average;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c307f1db2feea63e70afad6a756a4d\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Geopolitical turmoil has intensified, the domestic Omicron epidemic has broken out more than expected, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic monetary policy liquidity have tightened more than expected, and the public information used in the research report may have lagging information or untimely updates.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where will the market go under geopolitical turmoil and the epidemic?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere will the market go under geopolitical turmoil and the epidemic?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-13 11:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Investment Key Points</p><p><b>This week's topic: Where will the market go under geopolitical turmoil and epidemic situation?</b></p><p>1) Geopolitical factors will still support high volatility in commodity prices in the short term, and the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the sustainability of rising commodity prices. In the short term, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to be difficult to resolve. Geopolitical risks will continue to affect market sentiment, expectations of supply tightening will increase, and related commodity prices will remain high. Even if some countries choose to put pressure on the rise of commodities by increasing production or finding alternative energy sources in the future, the difficulty in changing the supply and demand pattern in the short term limits the decline in commodity prices. Taken together, under the premise of long-term geopolitical turmoil, commodity prices are likely to remain at a high level.</p><p>2) The Fed's more hawkish than expected may put pressure on high-valuation sectors. Against the background of high inflation in the United States and geopolitical conflicts exacerbating the inflation dilemma, the Fed's policy adjustment is likely to be a foregone conclusion. However, the recent continued fermentation of geopolitical risks may affect the future U.S. economic growth prospects, which will also lead the Fed to be more cautious and flexible in monetary policy decisions. Before U.S. stocks, the U.S. economy, and inflation fall sharply, the Fed's hawkish statements will continue to exceed expectations. Even if the pace of rate hike slows down in the short term, the overall tightening is likely to exceed expectations. Judging from the recent signals released by the Federal Reserve, March may tend to be 25bp instead of 50bp in rate hike, but there is a high probability that the shrinking balance sheet time will be advanced, and the possibility of starting a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the second quarter cannot be ruled out.</p><p>3) The domestic epidemic disturbance strengthens the configuration logic of \"both offensive and defensive\". Recently, the domestic epidemic has spread, and the overseas novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is high. With a large proportion of Omicron infections in neighboring countries and regions, the pressure of domestic prevention and control is expected to further increase. Under repeated epidemics, the recovery of consumption has weakened. Assuming that stronger epidemic prevention and control measures are taken in the future, the role of exports in stimulating the economy may also be weakened this year. The weakness of consumption and exports may put more serious pressure on the economic downturn in the short term, but in the medium term, there is a high probability that it will guide policies to increase support for stabilizing growth. It will take time for the market to recover, but the end of the adjustment may be approaching.</p><p>4) Which industry segments are revising their earnings estimates upwards?: The upstream is strong, and the middle and lower reaches are under pressure. March-April is a good time window to observe industries with high prosperity throughout the year. At present, the market in March has begun to gradually reflect the performance expectations of the first quarterly report. In the middle and late April, the market will enter a period of intensive disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report results. The market often has the seasonal characteristics of \"spring restlessness and April decision-making\". After the annual report and the first quarterly report results are disclosed, the market will generally adjust the profit forecast of listed companies. At present, the market has always been divided on \"whether the efforts to stabilize growth are effective\", so we try to find out which companies' steady growth recovery is sustainable by looking for marginal changes in profit forecasts, and how the fundamentals are expected to change.</p><p>Key points of investment: Still focusing on low-valuation blue chips, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic substitution, military industry, anti-epidemic and gold sectors. Under the background that geopolitical conflicts have triggered shocks in the global capital market, market risk aversion has risen sharply, and the spread of domestic epidemics in many places has not been contained. Investment opportunities in low-valued blue chips are still the most stable main line of the market. Although the overall valuation of growth stocks is subject to rising inflation, in terms of specific allocation, the following breakdowns are still worthy of attention: 1) Demand for domestic substitution in the entire West: This crisis has made the relationship between the EU, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom and the United States closer. From the perspective of supply chain security, except for the United States, the domestic substitution of key components from the entire Western major alliance may accelerate in the future. 3) For epidemic prevention items in medicine, considering the transmission ability of new viruses, in addition to nucleic acid testing, ventilators, etc., focus on new vaccines such as mRNA. 4) Risk aversion affects the market, overseas inflation remains high, and geopolitical conflicts superimpose the global economy. In the downturn, it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of the gold sector.</p><p>Risk warning: Geopolitical turmoil has intensified, the domestic Omicron epidemic has broken out more than expected, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic monetary policy liquidity have tightened more than expected, and the public information used in the research report may have lagging information or untimely updates.</p><p>text</p><p><b>This week's topic: Where will the market go under geopolitical turmoil and the epidemic?</b></p><p><b>1.1 Geopolitical factors will still support commodity prices in the short term</b></p><p>Recently, geopolitical risks have continued to stir up the market. Due to the particularity of Russia and Ukraine in the pricing of some global resource products, disputes between the two countries may lead commodity prices upward. Except for crude oil, whose price is already at historically high levels, the prices of agrochemical products and non-ferrous metals have generally risen. The spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also spread to the international logistics market, and shipping prices have risen. The reason is that in addition to geopolitical conflicts that have further aggravated the originally tight supply situation of energy, crops and metals, it also includes transportation obstructions and market expectations caused by Western countries' sanctions and restrictions on Russia.</p><p>The current geopolitical conflict is not over yet, and market expectations mainly follow the changes in the situation between Russia and Ukraine and quickly reflect the trend of commodity prices. On March 9, the situation between Russia and Ukraine showed initial signs of easing, which had a significant impact on the capital market. On that day, oil prices and non-ferrous metal prices fell sharply. However, the collective decline in commodity prices actually reflects more changes in sentiment than improvements in fundamentals. Therefore, it is too early to assert that the \"price increase tide\" is coming to an end. Recently, although the VIX index has fallen, it is still at a high level. We can see that the market risk aversion has not completely eased.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the sustainability of rising commodity prices. The current prospect of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also unclear. Judging from the multiple rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the information disclosed by both parties since then, Russia and Ukraine have a tough stance and have not yet reached an agreement on a ceasefire agreement. Moreover, NATO countries frequently send weapons and equipment to Ukraine. It also hinders the easing of the conflict. In the short term, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to be difficult to resolve. Geopolitical risks will continue to affect market sentiment, and increasing expectations of tightening supply will push up related commodity prices. Even if some countries choose to put pressure on the rise of commodities in the future by increasing production (such as some OPEC members stating that they will increase crude oil production) or looking for alternative energy sources (the EU proposes to accelerate the promotion of renewable energy), the supply and demand pattern will be difficult to change in the short term. The extent to which commodity prices fell. Taken together, under the premise of long-term geopolitical turmoil, commodity prices are likely to remain at a high level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cdd2ef4d240452ced73725f02ac3e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ff090db7fa96fcbb78bd9fdbdf8219b\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"780\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.2 The Fed's more hawkish than expected may put pressure on high-valuation sectors</b></p><p>Against the background of high inflation in the United States and geopolitical conflicts exacerbating the inflation dilemma, the Fed's policy adjustment may be a foregone conclusion. On March 10, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. CPI rose by 7.9% year-on-year in February, a 40-year high, and the core CPI growth rate rose to 6.4% year-on-year. Considering that commodity prices may remain high due to the disturbance of geopolitical conflicts, there is a possibility that high inflation in the U.S. economy will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. The severe inflation situation has strengthened the need for the Fed to tighten monetary policy. The unexpected recovery in employment in March also provided more room for the Fed to shift its monetary policy. On the whole, the Fed's policy adjustment may be a foregone conclusion.</p><p>Since December last year, the Federal Reserve has frequently released rate hike signals, mainly due to the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and the most urgent pressure on inflation. However, the recent continued fermentation of geopolitical risks may affect the future U.S. economic growth prospects, which will also lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious and flexible in monetary policy decisions.</p><p>Before U.S. stocks, the U.S. economy, and inflation fall sharply, there is a high probability that the Fed's hawkish statement will continue to exceed expectations. Although geopolitical conflicts may inhibit the future economic growth of the United States to a certain extent, the basic principles of economic normalization have not changed, and inflation is currently high. The Fed's top priority is still to strengthen the guidance of inflation expectations by maintaining a hawkish policy stance. Even if the pace of rate hike slows down in the short term, the overall tightening is likely to exceed expectations. Earlier, Powell released a clearer signal about the pace and intensity of tightening in his testimony on the semi-annual monetary policy report at a congressional hearing. In terms of the magnitude of rate hike, the Federal Reserve may prefer the March rate hike of 25bp instead of 50bp, but the shrinking balance sheet time will most likely be advanced, and the possibility of starting a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the second quarter cannot be ruled out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b7eacdc1fe87b4aa08a15685d974a3\" tg-width=\"1078\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.3 Domestic epidemic disturbance strengthens the configuration logic of \"both offensive and defensive\"</b></p><p>Recently, the domestic epidemic situation has spread in many places. The number of reported COVID-19 infections nationwide continues to remain high, and the number of provinces involved in the epidemic continues to increase. The main infection strains are Omicron variants. As of March 9, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 402 new local confirmed cases and 435 local asymptomatic infections. There is a new feature in this round of epidemic, that is, since the 6th, the number of new local asymptomatic infections in a single day has been higher than the number of new local cases for four consecutive days.</p><p>The Omicron variant spreads faster and has milder infection symptoms than other variants, so punctate sporadic or even local outbreaks are more likely to occur. With the high incidence of overseas novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemics, with a large proportion of Omicron infections in neighboring countries and regions, domestic prevention and control pressure is expected to further increase. Under the direction of epidemic recovery, the demand for epidemic prevention, epidemic control and other related products will remain high, and funds will mostly flow to ventilators, special vaccines, special drugs and other tracks.</p><p>Under repeated epidemics, the recovery of consumption has weakened. In addition to the lack of scenarios caused by prevention and control restrictions, which dragged down consumption, the epidemic also inhibited residents' spending power and willingness, which was reflected in the fact that residents' income and expenditure grew at the same rate before the epidemic, and the gap after the epidemic widened significantly. At present, consumption recovery is the general trend under the policy of stabilizing growth, but when the epidemic has not been fully controlled, consumption recovery is weakening.</p><p>Assuming that stronger epidemic prevention and control measures are taken in the future, the role of exports in stimulating the economy may also be weakened this year. In the past two years, the high export boom has been one of the most important driving forces supporting my country's economic resilience. However, as economies around the world gradually adapt to the \"normalization of the epidemic\", after June 2021, my country's global export share has returned to 14%, the pre-epidemic level. As overseas supply chains may enter a trend recovery, coupled with the rise in my country's labor costs, export growth may be weak and under increasing pressure.</p><p>The weakness of consumption and exports will put more serious pressure on the economic downturn in the short term, but in the medium term, it may guide policies to increase support for stabilizing growth. It will take time for the market to recover, but the end of the adjustment may be approaching.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59f2a3c0a40eadb62b670af68dcdbb2\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528312a622c08c7c81d9aaf8023457a9\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1.4 Which industry segments are revising their earnings estimates upwards?: Strong upstream, pressure on midstream and downstream</b></p><p>March-April is a good time window to observe industries with high prosperity throughout the year. At present, the market in March has begun to gradually reflect the performance expectations of the first quarterly report. In the middle and late April, the market will enter a period of intensive disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report results. The market often has the seasonal characteristics of \"spring restlessness and April decision-making\". After the annual report and the first quarterly report results are disclosed, the market will generally adjust the profit forecast of listed companies. At present, the market has always been divided on \"whether the efforts to stabilize growth are effective\", so we try to find out which companies' steady growth recovery is sustainable by looking for marginal changes in profit forecasts, and how the fundamentals are expected to change.</p><p>Overall, the upstream is strong, while the middle and lower reaches are under pressure. The industries with raised profit forecasts in 22 years are mainly in the infrastructure industry chain, new energy vehicle industry chain and pharmaceutical sector. Primary industries that have increased in the past two months: non-ferrous metals (2.87%), basic chemicals (1.04%), electricity and public utilities (0.84%), steel (0.71%), etc.</p><p>Upstream: The areas where raw material profits in the upstream sector have increased focus on infrastructure-related industries, among which rare metals, environmentally friendly public utilities, and chemical raw materials have increased. On the other hand, domestic economic and financial data from January to February will also be released, which will become an important basis for the market to judge the effect of \"steady growth\" in the early stage and predict the rhythm and intensity of subsequent policies. With the layout of \"steady growth\" and long-term high-quality development, the prosperity related to infrastructure is expected to continue.</p><p>In the midstream industry, the upward revision of profit forecasts focuses on subdivided tracks with high demand and prosperity, such as new energy batteries, automotive electronics, lithium batteries/photovoltaics/semiconductor equipment, and the prosperity continues to remain high. Profit forecasts for semiconductors, electronic components, and computer equipment in the TMT sector have been raised. At the same time, profit expectations in the field of special machinery in machinery and equipment have also continued to rise. In mid-to-late March, on the one hand, the prosperity indicators of popular tracks, such as the sales of new energy vehicles, are released one after another. The prosperity expectations of popular tracks in the current market are quite different, and relevant data will become an important signal to confirm the prosperity. On the other hand, the prosperity of conceptual fields in subdivided fields such as semiconductor equipment, cloud computing, and optical communications may have a reversal trend.</p><p>Among downstream consumption, the profit forecasts of commerce, agriculture and medical services, and medical circulation sectors have been significantly raised. Affected by the dual impact of cost pressure and the setback on the demand side caused by the recurrence of the epidemic, the growth rate of the food and beverage industry has slowed down, and the internal performance of the consumer sector has also shown significant differentiation. Compared with the profit downward adjustment in 21 years, the expected reversal of trade and retail has obviously been reversed, and the profit forecast in 22 years has been raised by about 20%. There is still no obvious upward revision in the performance of must-select consumption. In the overall consumption, the profit expectation of optional is still better than that of must-select. However, in the short term, some varieties of grain, including agricultural chemicals, are affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, and price increases are expected to be relatively strong. Affected by this geopolitical conflict, global related<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>The price is at a high level, which may boost the prosperity of agricultural products, and at the same time affect the expectation of live pig prices. This aspect deserves continuous observation.</p><p><b>1.5 Investment points: Still focusing on low-valuation blue chips, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic substitution, military industry, anti-epidemic, and gold sectors</b></p><p>Under the background that geopolitical conflicts have triggered shocks in the global capital market, market risk aversion has risen sharply, and the spread of domestic epidemics in many places has not been contained. Investment opportunities in low-valued blue chips are still the most stable main line of the market. Although the overall valuation of growth stocks is subject to rising inflation, in terms of specific allocation, the following breakdown is still worthy of attention:</p><p>1) Demand for domestic substitution in the entire West: This crisis has caused the EU, Japan and South Korea to completely fall towards and bind the United Kingdom and the United States. From the perspective of supply chain security, except for the United States, the rest come from key components in the entire Western alliance. Domestic substitution may accelerate in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to: semiconductor upstream materials, Huawei chip-related software ecology, etc.</p><p>2) With the display of Western modern equipment during the war, the increasing nuclear deterrence and military industry of both sides, especially the OEMs that benefited from the final year of the three-year pilot reform of state-owned enterprises this year, deserve special attention.</p><p>3) For epidemic prevention items in medicine, considering the transmission ability of the virus, in addition to nucleic acid testing, ventilators, etc., focus on new vaccines such as mRNA.</p><p>4) Risk aversion affects the market, overseas inflation remains high, and geopolitical conflicts are superimposed on the global economic downturn. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of the gold sector.</p><p><b>Market Review and Outlook</b></p><p>Style index: Market conditions generally fell this week. The CSI 500 and small and medium-sized board index led the decline. In terms of activity, the turnover rate of various industries generally rebounded, and the turnover rate of Shenzhen Component Index increased significantly.</p><p>Major industries: Healthcare and daily consumption performed relatively well this week, while optional consumption and real estate performed relatively sluggish. In terms of activity, the energy turnover rate dropped significantly, and the healthcare turnover rate rebounded significantly.</p><p>Primary industries: Primary industries generally fell this week, led by home appliances and non-ferrous metals. In terms of activity, the turnover rate of medicine and media has rebounded relatively significantly, while the turnover rate of national defense and military industries has declined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b77bbe4f011209d0f61398519d4b870\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d58f4dc49d2ba695c284f3f2b140070\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Three sentiment indicator tracking</b></p><p>Market-wide activity: Since 2010, the average daily turnover rate of all A has been roughly 0.4%-1.4%. After smoothing on the 20th, the turnover rate of all A dropped slightly this week. As of March 11, the single-day turnover rate reached 1.36%, which is 82.43% of the historical quantile. The turnover rate range of GEM is roughly 2%-8%. After smoothing on the 20th, the turnover rate of GEM fluctuates and rises. As of March 11, 2022, the single-day turnover rate of the GEM is 13.50%, which is 90.6% of the historical quantile.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91bd77cd124660b4b931da83a84f0e2\" tg-width=\"1065\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On-site financing: The financing balance rebounded slightly this week. As of March 10, the financing balance was 1,619.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.63 billion yuan from last week. On the 5th, after smoothing, the proportion of financing purchases in the total market turnover decreased by-0.2% compared with last week.</p><p>Index of sub-new shares: After smoothing on the 5th day, the turnover rate of sub-new shares rebounded slightly compared with last week. As of March 11th, the average turnover rate of sub-new shares on the 5th day reached 9.12%, which was at the historical quantile of 87.14%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b3f83e23e7b8c86169632226e8093d\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Four valuation indicator tracking</b></p><p>Valuation of major industries: The valuation levels of basic non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, national defense and military industry, automobiles, consumer services, food and beverage and electronics industries in PB valuation are higher than the historical average;</p><p>Valuation of major industries: In PE valuation, the valuation level of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, public utilities, leisure services, electrical equipment, automobiles and comprehensive industries is higher than the historical average;</p><p>Industries with PE valuation and PB valuation at historically high levels: the valuation levels of food and beverage and automobile industries are higher than the historical average;</p><p>Main indexes: PB valuation SSE 50, GEM index valuation level is higher than historical average;</p><p>Main index: PE valuation SSE 50, the valuation level of small and medium-sized board index is higher than the historical average;</p><p>PE valuation and PB valuation are both at historically high indexes: the valuation level of SSE 50 is higher than the historical average;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c307f1db2feea63e70afad6a756a4d\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Geopolitical turmoil has intensified, the domestic Omicron epidemic has broken out more than expected, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and domestic monetary policy liquidity have tightened more than expected, and the public information used in the research report may have lagging information or untimely updates.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/676392.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","399001":"深证成指","510030":"价值ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","000300.SH":"沪深300","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","XPP":"二倍做多富时中国50ETF(ProShares)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","BK1574":"生物医药B类股","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","YXI":"ProShares做空FTSE中国50ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","FXP":"二倍做空富时中国50ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","09939":"开拓药业-B","000016.SH":"上证50","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/676392.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2219424094","content_text":"投资要点本周话题：地缘动荡与疫情下，市场将何去何从?1)  地缘因素短期内仍将支撑大宗商品价格高位震荡，俄乌冲突的演进态势将决定大宗商品价格上涨的可持续性。短期内，俄乌危机大概率难以解决。地缘政治风险将持续影响市场情绪，供给收紧预期增强，相关大宗商品价格持续高位。即使部分国家在未来选择以增产或者寻找替代能源的方式对大宗商品涨势施压，但短期内供需格局难变限制了大宗商品价格回落幅度。综合来看，在地缘动荡长期化的前提下，大宗商品价格大概率维持在高位运行。2)  美联储超预期鹰派或使高估值板块承压。在美国通胀高企叠加地缘冲突加剧通胀困境的背景下，美联储政策调整大概率已成定局，但近期地缘政治风险持续发酵或影响未来美国经济增长前景也将导致美联储在货币政策决策上更加谨慎和灵活。在美股、美国经济、通胀出现大幅下滑前，美联储鹰派表述将持续超预期。即便短期内加息节奏放缓，但整体收紧力度大概率超预期。就近期美联储释放的信号来看，3月或倾向于加息25bp而非50bp，但缩表时间大概率会提前，不排除在二季度开启“缩表”的可能性。3)  国内疫情扰动强化“攻守兼备”配置逻辑。近日，国内疫情蔓延，境外新冠肺炎疫情高发，伴随周边国家地区大比例的奥密克戎感染，国内防控压力预计会进一步增加。疫情反复下，消费复苏趋弱。假设未来采取更强的疫情防控措施，今年出口对经济拉动作用也或弱化。消费及出口的疲软短期或对经济下行构成更加严重压力，但是从中期来看，大概率将引导政策面加大稳增长支持力度。市场修复仍待时日，但调整尾声或已渐行渐近。4)  哪些行业细分正在向上修正盈利预测?：上游强劲，中下游承压。3-4月是很好的观察全年高景气行业的时间窗口。当前3月的市场已经开始逐步反应一季报的业绩预期，4  月中下旬市场将进入年报及一季报业绩的密集披露期，市场往往有“春季躁动，四月决断”的季节性特征，在年报及一季报业绩披露后，市场会普遍调整对上市公司的盈利预测。而市场目前对“稳增长发力是否有效”的分歧一直存在，所以我们通过寻找盈利预测边际变化，试图寻找哪些公司的稳增长复苏具备持续性，以及基本面的预期变化情况如何。投资要点：仍以低估值蓝筹为主线，建议关注国产替代、军工、抗疫、黄金板块。地缘冲突引发全球资本市场震荡，市场避险情绪急剧升温以及国内疫情多地散发势头尚未遏制住的背景下，低估值蓝筹的投资机会仍为市场最稳健的主线。成长股方面虽然整体估值受制于通胀上升，就具体配置而言，如下细分仍值得关注：1)  对于整个西方的国产替代需求：本次危机，使得欧盟、日韩与英美关系更加密切，就供应链安全角度而言，除美国外，其余来自于整个西方大联盟的关键零部件的国产替代或将在未来加速，建议关注：半导体上游材料，华为芯片相关的软件生态等，2)伴随战争过程中西方现代化装备的展现，不断增加的双方核威慑，军工，特别是今年受益于国企改革三年试点收官年的主机厂值得重点关注。3)医药当中防疫物品，考虑到新病毒的传播能力，除核酸检测、呼吸机等外，重点关注mRNA等新疫苗，4)避险情绪影响市场，海外通胀居高不下，地缘冲突叠加全球经济下行，建议关注黄金板块的配置价值。风险提示：地缘动荡事件加剧，国内Omicron疫情超预期爆发，美联储货币政策及国内货币政策流动性超预期收紧，研究报告使用的公开资料可能存在信息滞后或更新不及时的情况。正文一 本周话题：地缘动荡与疫情下，市场将何去何从?1.1 地缘因素短期内仍将支撑大宗商品价格近期，地缘政治风险持续搅动市场。由于俄乌在全球部分资源品定价中的特殊性，两国纷争或将引导大宗商品价格上行。除价格已经处于历史高位的原油外，农化产品、有色金属价格普涨。俄乌冲突带来的外溢效应也波及到了国际物流市场，航运价格攀升。究其原因，除了地缘冲突进一步加剧了原本紧张的能源、农作物及金属供应形势以外，还包括西方国家对俄制裁限制带来的运输受阻及市场预期恐慌。现下地缘冲突仍未结束，市场预期主要跟随俄乌局势变化波动并快速反映大宗商品价格走势上。3月9日，俄乌局势初现缓和迹象已经对资本市场产生明显影响，该日油价、有色金属价格大幅重挫。但此次大宗商品价格集体回落实际上更多的是反映了情绪面的变化而非基本面的改善，因此此时断言“涨价潮”趋于结束还为时尚早。近日，VIX指数虽有所下跌但仍处高位水平，我们可以看出，市场避险情绪尚未完全缓和。如前所述，俄乌冲突的演进态势将决定大宗商品价格上涨的可持续性。当前俄乌冲突前景亦未明朗，从俄乌多轮谈判以及此后双方所披露的情况看，俄乌双方立场强硬，目前仍未就停火协议达成一致意见，且北约国家频频输送武器装备至乌克兰，也为冲突缓和造成阻碍。短期内，俄乌危机大概率难以解决。地缘政治风险将持续影响市场情绪，  供给收紧预期增强推高相关大宗商品价格。即使部分国家在未来选择以增产(如OPEC部分成员国表态增产原油)或者寻找替代能源(欧盟提议加速推广可再生能源)的方式对大宗商品涨势施压，但短期内供需格局难变限制了大宗商品价格回落幅度。综合来看，在地缘动荡长期化的前提下，大宗商品价格大概率维持在高位运行。1.2 美联储超预期鹰派或致高估值板块承压在美国通胀高企叠加地缘冲突加剧通胀困境的背景下，美联储政策调整或已成定局。3月10日，美国劳工部发布的数据显示,美国2月CPI同比上涨7.9%,涨幅创40年来新高，核心CPI同比增速升至6.4%。考虑到地缘冲突扰动下大宗商品价格或维持高位，短期内美国经济存在高通胀难以缓解的可能性。通胀形势严峻强化了美联储收紧货币政策的必要性，3月就业超预期复苏也为美联储货币政策转向提供更大的操作空间，综合来看，美联储政策调整或已成定局。自去年12月开始，美联储频频释放加息信号，主要是基于美国经济持续修复以及通胀面临的压力最为紧迫。但近期地缘政治风险持续发酵或影响未来美国经济增长前景也将导致美联储在货币政策决策上更加谨慎和灵活。在美股、美国经济、通胀出现大幅下滑前，美联储鹰派表述大概率将持续超预期。尽管地缘冲突可能会在一定程度上抑制美国未来经济增长，但经济正常化的基本原理尚未改变，且目前通胀居高难下，美联储的当务之急仍是通过维持鹰派政策立场强化对通胀预期的引导。即便短期内加息节奏放缓，但整体收紧力度大概率超预期。此前鲍威尔在国会听证会就半年度货币政策报告作证词中释放了关于紧缩节奏与力度更清晰的信号。从加息幅度上来说，美联储或倾向于3月加息25bp而非50bp，但缩表时间大概率会提前，不排除在二季度开启“缩表”的可能性。1.3 国内疫情扰动强化“攻守兼备”配置逻辑近日，国内疫情多点散发。全国报告新冠感染者继续维持高位，疫情涉及省份持续增多，感染毒株以Omicron变异株为主。截至3月9日，31个省(自治区、直辖市)和新疆生产建设兵团报告新增本土确诊病例402例，本土无症状感染者435例。此轮疫情中有一个新特点，即从6日以来，连续四天本土无症状感染者单日新增数都高于新增本土病例数。奥密克戎变异株传播速度更快且感染症状较其他变异株更轻微，因此点状散发甚至局部爆发更容易出现。境外新冠肺炎疫情高发，伴随周边国家地区大比例的奥密克戎感染，国内防控压力预计会进一步增加。疫情修复方向下，防疫、治疫等相关产品需求将维持高位，资金多流向呼吸机、特效疫苗、特效药等赛道。疫情反复下，消费复苏趋弱。除了防控限制引发的场景缺失拖累消费外，疫情同样对居民的消费能力和意愿产生抑制，体现为疫情前居民收入和支出增速相当、疫后差距明显拉大。目前，消费修复是稳增长政策发力下的大势所趋，但在疫情尚未完全控制住的情况下，消费复苏趋弱。假设未来采取更强的疫情防控措施，今年出口对经济拉动作用也或弱化。过去两年，出口高景气是支撑我国经济韧性最重要的动能之一，但在全球各经济体逐渐适应“疫情常态化”的背景下，2021年6月后，我国出口占全球份额已回到14%，这一疫情之前的水平。随着海外供应链或进入趋势性恢复，叠加我国人力成本的走高，出口增长或乏力且承压渐增。消费及出口的疲软短期内会对经济下行构成更加严重压力，但是从中期来看，或将引导政策面加大稳增长支持力度。市场修复仍待时日，但调整尾声或已渐行渐近。1.4 哪些行业细分正在向上修正盈利预测?：上游强劲，中下游承压3-4月是很好的观察全年高景气行业的时间窗口。当前3月的市场已经开始逐步反应一季报的业绩预期，4  月中下旬市场将进入年报及一季报业绩的密集披露期，市场往往有“春季躁动，四月决断”的季节性特征，在年报及一季报业绩披露后，市场会普遍调整对上市公司的盈利预测。而市场目前对“稳增长发力是否有效”的分歧一直存在，所以我们通过寻找盈利预测边际变化，试图寻找哪些公司的稳增长复苏具备持续性，以及基本面的预期变化情况如何。整体来看，上游强劲，中下游承压。22年盈利预测上调的行业主要在基建产业链、新能源车产业链及医药板块。近2个月调涨的一级行业：有色金属(2.87%)，基础化工(1.04%)，电力及公用(0.84%)，钢铁(0.71%)等。上游：上游领域的原材料盈利上调的领域聚焦在基建相关产业，其中，稀有金属、环保公用、化学原料调涨。另一方面，国内1-2  月经济、金融数据也将公布，并成为市场判断前期“稳增长”效果以及预判后续政策节奏和力度的重要依据，稳增长主线再次强调下，短期“稳增长”及长期高质量发展的布局，基建相关景气度有望延续。中游行业中，盈利预测上修集中在需求高景气的细分赛道，如新能源电池、汽车电子、锂电/光伏/半导体设备，景气度持续维持高位。TMT板块中半导体、电子零组件、计算机设备的盈利预测调涨。同时，机械设备中专用机械领域盈利预期也持续上调。3  月中下旬，一方面，热门赛道景气度指标，如新能源车销量陆续发布，当前市场的热门赛道景气度预期分歧较大，相关数据将成为景气确认的重要信号。另一方面，半导体设备、云计算、光通信这些细分领域的概念领域景气度或有反转的趋势。下游消费中，商贸、农业及医疗服务、医疗流通板块的盈利预测明显上调。受成本压力及疫情复发导致需求端受挫的双重影响，食品饮料行业增速放缓，消费板块内部业绩表现也出现明显的分化。商贸零售相对于21年的盈利下调出现明显的预期反转，22年盈利预测上调20%左右。必选消费业绩仍没有看到明显的上修，整体消费中，可选的盈利预期仍好于必选。但是  短期，粮食部分品种、包括农用化工受俄乌战火的影响，涨价预期比较强烈，受这种地缘冲突的影响，全球相关农产品价格在高位，这可能对农产品景气度有所助推，同时影响生猪价格的预期，这方面值得持续的观察。1.5 投资要点：仍以低估值蓝筹为主线，建议关注国产替代、军工、抗疫、黄金板块地缘冲突引发全球资本市场震荡，市场避险情绪急剧升温以及国内疫情多地散发势头尚未遏制住的背景下，低估值蓝筹的投资机会仍为市场最稳健的主线。成长股方面虽然整体估值受制于通胀上升，就具体配置而言，但如下细分仍值得关注：1)  对于整个西方的国产替代需求：本次危机，使得欧盟、日韩彻底倒向并绑定英美，就供应链安全角度而言，除美国外，其余来自于整个西方大联盟的关键零部件的国产替代或将在未来加速，建议关注：半导体上游材料，华为芯片相关的软件生态等。2) 伴随战争过程中西方现代化装备的展现，不断增加的双方核威慑，军工，特别是今年受益于国企改革三年试点收官年的主机厂值得重点关注。3)医药当中防疫物品，考虑到病毒的传播能力，除核酸检测、呼吸机等外，重点关注mRNA等新疫苗。4)避险情绪影响市场，海外通胀居高不下，地缘冲突叠加全球经济下行，建议关注黄金板块的配置价值。二 市场回顾及展望风格指数：本周市场行情普跌。中证500、中小板指领跌。活跃度方面，各行业换手率普遍回升，深证成指换手率上升明显。大类行业：本周医疗保健、日常消费相对表现亮眼，可选消费、房地产相对表现低迷。活跃度方面，能源换手率明显回落，医疗保健换手率明显回升。一级行业：本周一级行业普跌，家电、有色金属领跌。活跃度方面，医药、传媒换手率回升相对明显，国防军工换手率有所下滑。三 情绪指标跟踪全市场活跃度：2010年以来，全A日均换手率区间大致为0.4%-1.4%。20日平滑后本周全A换手率小幅下降。截止3月11日，单日换手率达到1.36%，处于历史分位的82.43%。创业板指换手率区间大致为2%-8%，20日平滑后创业板指换手率震荡上升。截止2022年3月11日，创业板单日换手率为13.50%，处于历史分位的90.6%。场内融资：本周融资余额小幅回升，截止3月10日，融资余额为16194亿元，较上周减少86.30亿。5日平滑后融资买入额占全市场成交额的比重较上周下降-0.2%。次新股指标：5日平滑后次新股换手率较上周小幅回升，截止3月11日，5日次新股换手率均值达到9.12%，处于历史分位87.14%。四 估值指标跟踪主要行业估值： PB估值中基有色金属、基础化工、电力设备及新能源、国防军工、汽车、消费者服务、食品饮料和电子行业估值水平高于历史均值;主要行业估值：PE估值中农林牧渔、食品饮料、公用事业、休闲服务、电器设备、汽车和综合行业估值水平高于历史均值;PE估值、PB估值均处在历史高位的行业：食品饮料、汽车行业估值水平高于历史均值;主要指数：PB估值上证50、创业板指估值水平高于历史均值;主要指数：PE估值上证50、中小板指估值水平高于历史均值;PE估值、PB估值均处在历史高位的指数：上证50估值水平高于历史均值;风险提示：地缘动荡事件加剧，国内Omicron疫情超预期爆发，美联储货币政策及国内货币政策流动性超预期收紧，研究报告使用的公开资料可能存在信息滞后或更新不及时的情况。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"399001":0.9,"510030":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"000300.SH":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"GCmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"YXI":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MGCmain":0.6,"CNmain":0.9,"DJX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"09939":0.9,"UPRO":0.6,"FXP":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"000016.SH":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"XPP":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DUST":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033147016,"gmtCreate":1646229347299,"gmtModify":1676534106118,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033147016","repostId":"1127758030","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127758030","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646227998,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127758030?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-02 21:33","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Fed Chairman Powell: March rate hike is expected to be appropriate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127758030","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，预计3月份加息将是合适的，乌克兰战争对美国经济的影响“高度不确定”。美联储将需要灵活应对即将到来的数据和不断变化的经济前景。通胀方面，鲍威尔预计随着供应问题的缓解和需求缓和，今年通胀将下降，并表示美联储正在关注通胀预期和通胀压力上升的风险，这是由一系列因素造成的。缩表方面，鲍威尔称，在加息过程开始后，美联储将开始缩减资产负债表。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 2, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that rate hike is expected to be appropriate in March and that the impact of the Ukrainian war on the U.S. economy is \"highly uncertain.\" The labor market is very tight and inflation is well above target.</p><p>To develop proper monetary policy in this environment, Powell noted, it is necessary to recognize that the economy is developing in unexpected ways. The Fed will need to be flexible in response to upcoming data and the changing economic outlook.</p><p>In terms of inflation, Powell expects inflation to decline this year as supply issues ease and demand eases, and said the Fed is watching the risk of rising inflation expectations and inflationary pressures, which are caused by a range of factors.</p><p>He said the slowdown in the U.S. economy caused by the Omicron strain variant appears to be short-lived. But the supply disruption was larger and longer lasting than expected. The labor market is very tight and wages are growing at their fastest pace in years.</p><p>In shrinking balance sheet, Powell said,<b>The Fed will begin shrinking its balance sheet after the rate hike process begins</b>。 Downsizing the balance sheet will be done in a predictable manner, primarily by adjusting reinvestment.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Chairman Powell: March rate hike is expected to be appropriate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Chairman Powell: March rate hike is expected to be appropriate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-02 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 2, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that rate hike is expected to be appropriate in March and that the impact of the Ukrainian war on the U.S. economy is \"highly uncertain.\" The labor market is very tight and inflation is well above target.</p><p>To develop proper monetary policy in this environment, Powell noted, it is necessary to recognize that the economy is developing in unexpected ways. The Fed will need to be flexible in response to upcoming data and the changing economic outlook.</p><p>In terms of inflation, Powell expects inflation to decline this year as supply issues ease and demand eases, and said the Fed is watching the risk of rising inflation expectations and inflationary pressures, which are caused by a range of factors.</p><p>He said the slowdown in the U.S. economy caused by the Omicron strain variant appears to be short-lived. But the supply disruption was larger and longer lasting than expected. The labor market is very tight and wages are growing at their fastest pace in years.</p><p>In shrinking balance sheet, Powell said,<b>The Fed will begin shrinking its balance sheet after the rate hike process begins</b>。 Downsizing the balance sheet will be done in a predictable manner, primarily by adjusting reinvestment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127758030","content_text":"3月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，预计3月份加息将是合适的，乌克兰战争对美国经济的影响“高度不确定”。劳动力市场非常紧张，通胀远高于目标。鲍威尔指出，在这种环境下制定适当的货币政策，必须认识到经济以意想不到的方式发展。美联储将需要灵活应对即将到来的数据和不断变化的经济前景。通胀方面，鲍威尔预计随着供应问题的缓解和需求缓和，今年通胀将下降，并表示美联储正在关注通胀预期和通胀压力上升的风险，这是由一系列因素造成的。他表示，奥密克戎毒株变体导致的美国经济放缓似乎是短暂的。但供应中断比预期的更大、持续时间更长。劳动力市场非常紧张，工资增长速度是多年来最快的。缩表方面，鲍威尔称，在加息过程开始后，美联储将开始缩减资产负债表。缩减资产负债表将以可预测的方式进行，主要是通过调整再投资。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095146554,"gmtCreate":1644861401714,"gmtModify":1676533969048,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095146554","repostId":"1147500928","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147500928","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644850519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147500928?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-14 22:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rivian rose 10%, Soros bought in Q4, and the market value of the position exceeded US $2 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147500928","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"值得注意的是，Rivian是索罗斯四季度新建仓的个股。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Monday, electric van startups<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>It rose 10% at the beginning of the session. It was reported that Soros bought Rivian in Q4, and the market value of his position reached US $2.057 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea716916dc9799f78b01f4147ade97dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the disclosure of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Soros Fund Management, a fund owned by financial tycoon Soros, submitted its position report (13F) for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2021. According to statistics, the total market value of the fund's positions in the fourth quarter was US $7.308 billion, compared with US $5.417 billion in the previous quarter, an increase of 34.9% from the previous quarter.</p><p>The fund's position portfolio in the fourth quarter<b>94 new stocks were added</b>，<b>Added holdings of 29 stocks</b>。 At the same time, the fund also<b>Reduced holdings of 36 stocks</b>And<b>65 stocks were cleared</b>。 Among them, the top ten holdings accounted for 61.69% of the total market value.</p><p>Among the top five heavyweight stocks,<b>Rivian ranks first</b>, holding approximately 19.8357 million shares, with a market value of approximately US $2.057 billion, accounting for 28.14% of the investment portfolio. It is worth noting that<b>Rivian is a stock that Soros newly built in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian rose 10%, Soros bought in Q4, and the market value of the position exceeded US $2 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian rose 10%, Soros bought in Q4, and the market value of the position exceeded US $2 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-14 22:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Monday, electric van startups<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>It rose 10% at the beginning of the session. It was reported that Soros bought Rivian in Q4, and the market value of his position reached US $2.057 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea716916dc9799f78b01f4147ade97dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the disclosure of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Soros Fund Management, a fund owned by financial tycoon Soros, submitted its position report (13F) for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2021. According to statistics, the total market value of the fund's positions in the fourth quarter was US $7.308 billion, compared with US $5.417 billion in the previous quarter, an increase of 34.9% from the previous quarter.</p><p>The fund's position portfolio in the fourth quarter<b>94 new stocks were added</b>，<b>Added holdings of 29 stocks</b>。 At the same time, the fund also<b>Reduced holdings of 36 stocks</b>And<b>65 stocks were cleared</b>。 Among them, the top ten holdings accounted for 61.69% of the total market value.</p><p>Among the top five heavyweight stocks,<b>Rivian ranks first</b>, holding approximately 19.8357 million shares, with a market value of approximately US $2.057 billion, accounting for 28.14% of the investment portfolio. It is worth noting that<b>Rivian is a stock that Soros newly built in the fourth quarter.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/246cd8c44f8d5b3ccb3590c3a62a3f19","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147500928","content_text":"周一，电动货车初创公司Rivian盘初大涨10%，消息称索罗斯Q4买入Rivian，持仓市值达到20.57亿美元。根据美国证券交易委员会（SEC）披露，金融大鳄索罗斯旗下基金Soros Fund Management递交了截至2021年12月31日的四季度持仓报告（13F）。据统计，该基金四季度持仓总市值为73.08亿美元，上一季度总市值为54.17亿美元，环比增长34.9%。该基金在四季度的持仓组合中新增了94只个股，增持了29只个股。同时，该基金还减持了36只个股并清仓了65只个股。其中前十大持仓标的占总市值的61.69%。在前五大重仓股中，Rivian位列第一，持仓约1983.57万股，持仓市值约20.57亿美元，占投资组合比例为28.14%。值得注意的是，Rivian是索罗斯四季度新建仓的个股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092887845,"gmtCreate":1644586158067,"gmtModify":1676533943718,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"J","listText":"J","text":"J","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092887845","repostId":"1130140404","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130140404","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644585809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130140404?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-11 21:23","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"The operation of thousands of mines is suspended, and Southeast Asia's major resource exporting countries are causing trouble. What is the impact?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130140404","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"据界面新闻等报道，一份由印尼矿业部下属矿产和煤炭局发布的文件显示，由于未能提交2022年的工作计划，印尼已经暂停1000多个矿商的矿场（锡矿等）运营。在此前的1月初，印尼曾禁止煤炭出口1个月，或影响全","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Jiemian News and other reports, a document issued by the Mines and Coal Bureau under the Indonesian Ministry of Mines shows that Indonesia has suspended the operation of more than 1,000 miners' mines (tin mines, etc.) due to failure to submit a work plan for 2022.</p><p>In early January, Indonesia banned coal exports for one month, which may affect global coal prices, and was intensely covered by analyst research reports.</p><p>What are the main mineral resources in Indonesia? What impact may this matter have?</p><p>Today we will briefly sort out these problems.</p><p><b>Indonesia is rich in mineral resources</b></p><p>According to data from the Guotai Junan research report, Indonesia has a complete range of minerals, including bauxite, nickel ore, iron ore sand, copper, tin, gold, silver, etc., among which<b>Tin nickel aluminum</b>The reserves are the most abundant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9640a0c19f20e07f9d2da6eeaf59198a\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of nickel,</b>According to data from Huaxin Securities Research Report, global nickel resources are mainly distributed in Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and other places. China is in short supply of nickel ore resources, accounting for only 3% of the world's reserves. In terms of output, the world's main nickel producers include Indonesia, the Philippines, and Russia, of which Indonesia and the Philippines together account for 44%, while China's nickel ore output only accounts for 4.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce057b30be22c859fafbe25ef0eb1e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Guotai Junan pointed out that under the background of the booming development of the global new energy automobile industry, China's nickel ore imports have increased year by year, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 80%, while 50% of the imported nickel ore comes from Indonesia. Combined with Indonesia's historical restrictions on exports If you look at it, it may push up the price of nickel metal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36de095c1ed6b003ae245e8c7f2b1401\" tg-width=\"347\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>As for tin,</b>According to statistics, Indonesia's tin reserves rank second in the world, accounting for 17% of the world's total, second only to China, which accounts for 23% of the total; At the same time, Indonesia's tin production is also the second in the world, second only to my country with 22% of its output.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84ac1d4d3897a8c71c759548b70ad52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>As for bauxite,</b>China's dependence on foreign bauxite reaches about 60%, while 80% of imported bauxite comes from Indonesia. Based on the historical export control situation in Indonesia, Guotai Junan said that it may lead to an increase in domestic bauxite prices and increase the production costs of pure alumina and electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, thereby pushing up the price of electrolytic aluminum.</p><p><b>Indonesia's restrictions on the export of primary mineral products are a major trend</b></p><p>As the world's most upstream raw material supply base, more than 90% of Indonesia's nickel and aluminum metals are exported in the form of primary mineral products, and rarely undergo deep processing. In order to change its current situation of large population and backward economy, since 2002, Indonesia has restricted metal exports. Policies are often proposed by the government.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3fddc5e8231a5ee23552d48874de11\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On November 24, 2021, the Indonesian President stated that Indonesia may stop tin exports in 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry and improve the country's external balance. The government is likely to stop exporting bauxite in 2022 and copper ore in 2023.</p><p>Guotai Junan believes that Indonesia's restrictions on the export of primary mineral products will be a general trend. Historically,<b>If strictly implemented, the supply and demand side of aluminum and nickel will be greatly improved</b>, thus forming support for metal prices, and companies with high self-sufficiency rates are expected to benefit.</p><p><b>Third largest coal producer</b></p><p>Data show that Indonesia is currently the world's third largest coal producer and the world's largest exporter of thermal coal. At the same time, Indonesia is my country's largest source of coal/thermal coal imports. In 2020, my country imported a total of 300 million tons of coal, of which 140.99 million tons were imported from Indonesia, accounting for 46.4%, making it the largest coal importer. Second is Australia, which imported 78.09 million tons in 2020, accounting for 25.7%.</p><p>China Merchants Securities said that in 2021, when the Australian coal ban is strictly implemented, Indonesian coal will become the main import substitute. In the first 11 months, the proportion has jumped to 60.9%, and the total import volume is 178 million tons, an increase of 62 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 54%.%, to a large extent alleviating the problem of tight coal supply in China.</p><p>Guosheng Securities stated that if Indonesian coal exports are banned, it will affect my country's imports by an average of about 16 million tons per month, accounting for 5.3% of the effective domestic supply, and it will be difficult to make up for it through other countries. If Indonesia's export ban continues for a long time, it may cause my country's thermal coal market to return to a balance between supply and demand or even a slightly tight situation.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The operation of thousands of mines is suspended, and Southeast Asia's major resource exporting countries are causing trouble. What is the impact?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe operation of thousands of mines is suspended, and Southeast Asia's major resource exporting countries are causing trouble. What is the impact?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-11 21:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Jiemian News and other reports, a document issued by the Mines and Coal Bureau under the Indonesian Ministry of Mines shows that Indonesia has suspended the operation of more than 1,000 miners' mines (tin mines, etc.) due to failure to submit a work plan for 2022.</p><p>In early January, Indonesia banned coal exports for one month, which may affect global coal prices, and was intensely covered by analyst research reports.</p><p>What are the main mineral resources in Indonesia? What impact may this matter have?</p><p>Today we will briefly sort out these problems.</p><p><b>Indonesia is rich in mineral resources</b></p><p>According to data from the Guotai Junan research report, Indonesia has a complete range of minerals, including bauxite, nickel ore, iron ore sand, copper, tin, gold, silver, etc., among which<b>Tin nickel aluminum</b>The reserves are the most abundant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9640a0c19f20e07f9d2da6eeaf59198a\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of nickel,</b>According to data from Huaxin Securities Research Report, global nickel resources are mainly distributed in Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and other places. China is in short supply of nickel ore resources, accounting for only 3% of the world's reserves. In terms of output, the world's main nickel producers include Indonesia, the Philippines, and Russia, of which Indonesia and the Philippines together account for 44%, while China's nickel ore output only accounts for 4.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce057b30be22c859fafbe25ef0eb1e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Guotai Junan pointed out that under the background of the booming development of the global new energy automobile industry, China's nickel ore imports have increased year by year, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 80%, while 50% of the imported nickel ore comes from Indonesia. Combined with Indonesia's historical restrictions on exports If you look at it, it may push up the price of nickel metal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36de095c1ed6b003ae245e8c7f2b1401\" tg-width=\"347\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>As for tin,</b>According to statistics, Indonesia's tin reserves rank second in the world, accounting for 17% of the world's total, second only to China, which accounts for 23% of the total; At the same time, Indonesia's tin production is also the second in the world, second only to my country with 22% of its output.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84ac1d4d3897a8c71c759548b70ad52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>As for bauxite,</b>China's dependence on foreign bauxite reaches about 60%, while 80% of imported bauxite comes from Indonesia. Based on the historical export control situation in Indonesia, Guotai Junan said that it may lead to an increase in domestic bauxite prices and increase the production costs of pure alumina and electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, thereby pushing up the price of electrolytic aluminum.</p><p><b>Indonesia's restrictions on the export of primary mineral products are a major trend</b></p><p>As the world's most upstream raw material supply base, more than 90% of Indonesia's nickel and aluminum metals are exported in the form of primary mineral products, and rarely undergo deep processing. In order to change its current situation of large population and backward economy, since 2002, Indonesia has restricted metal exports. Policies are often proposed by the government.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3fddc5e8231a5ee23552d48874de11\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On November 24, 2021, the Indonesian President stated that Indonesia may stop tin exports in 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry and improve the country's external balance. The government is likely to stop exporting bauxite in 2022 and copper ore in 2023.</p><p>Guotai Junan believes that Indonesia's restrictions on the export of primary mineral products will be a general trend. Historically,<b>If strictly implemented, the supply and demand side of aluminum and nickel will be greatly improved</b>, thus forming support for metal prices, and companies with high self-sufficiency rates are expected to benefit.</p><p><b>Third largest coal producer</b></p><p>Data show that Indonesia is currently the world's third largest coal producer and the world's largest exporter of thermal coal. At the same time, Indonesia is my country's largest source of coal/thermal coal imports. In 2020, my country imported a total of 300 million tons of coal, of which 140.99 million tons were imported from Indonesia, accounting for 46.4%, making it the largest coal importer. Second is Australia, which imported 78.09 million tons in 2020, accounting for 25.7%.</p><p>China Merchants Securities said that in 2021, when the Australian coal ban is strictly implemented, Indonesian coal will become the main import substitute. In the first 11 months, the proportion has jumped to 60.9%, and the total import volume is 178 million tons, an increase of 62 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 54%.%, to a large extent alleviating the problem of tight coal supply in China.</p><p>Guosheng Securities stated that if Indonesian coal exports are banned, it will affect my country's imports by an average of about 16 million tons per month, accounting for 5.3% of the effective domestic supply, and it will be difficult to make up for it through other countries. If Indonesia's export ban continues for a long time, it may cause my country's thermal coal market to return to a balance between supply and demand or even a slightly tight situation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651702\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de37c6248d9a2641dda76d181c7cc1a6","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651702","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1130140404","content_text":"据界面新闻等报道，一份由印尼矿业部下属矿产和煤炭局发布的文件显示，由于未能提交2022年的工作计划，印尼已经暂停1000多个矿商的矿场（锡矿等）运营。在此前的1月初，印尼曾禁止煤炭出口1个月，或影响全球煤炭价格，而被分析师研报密集覆盖。印尼主要都有哪些矿产资源？这个事情又可能有哪些影响？今天我们来简单梳理一下这些问题。印尼矿产资源丰富据国泰君安研报数据显示，印尼矿产种类齐全、包括铝土矿、镍矿、铁矿沙、铜、锡、金、银等，其中尤其以锡镍铝储量最为丰富。镍方面，据华鑫证券研报数据，全球镍资源主要分布在印尼、澳大利亚、巴西等地，中国镍矿资源短缺，储量仅占全球的3%。产量上看，全球镍主要生产国有印尼、菲律宾、俄罗斯等，其中印尼和菲律宾合计占比达到44%，而中国的镍矿产量仅占4.8%。国泰君安指出，全球新能源汽车产业的发展如火如荼的背景下，中国镍矿进口量逐年增大，对外依存度达到80%以上，而进口的镍矿中50%来自印尼，结合历史上印尼限制出口情况来看的话，有可能会推升镍金属价格。锡方面，据统计数据，印尼锡储量位居世界第二，占世界总量的17%，仅次于占总量23%的中国；同时印尼的锡产量也是世界第二，以22%的产量成为仅次于我国。铝土矿方面，中国对国外铝土矿依存度达到60%左右，而进口的铝土矿中80%来自于印尼，结合历史上印尼出口控制情况来看的话，国泰君安表示，可能导致国内铝土矿价格上升，提升单纯的氧化铝、电解铝生产企业的生产成本，从而推升电解铝价格。印尼限制初级矿产品出口是大趋势作为全球最上游原料供应基地，印尼的镍及铝金属90%以上以初级矿产品形式出口，极少做深加工，为了改变自己人口众多、经济落后的现状，从2002年开始，印尼限制金属出口的政策就时常被政府提出。2021年11月24日，印尼总统就曾表示，印尼可能会在2024年停止锡出口，以吸引对资源加工业的投资并改善该国的外部平衡。政府可能会在2022年停止出口铝土矿，并在2023年停止出口铜矿石。国泰君安认为，印尼限制初级矿产品出口会是大趋势，从历史上来看的话，如果执行严格，将大幅改善铝、镍的供需面，从而对金属价格形成支撑，自给率高的企业有望受益。第三大煤炭生产国资料显示，目前印尼为全球第三大煤炭生产商，为世界上最大的动力煤出口国。同时印尼是我国煤炭/动力煤第一大进口来源国。2020年，我国累计进口煤炭3亿吨，其中自印尼进口14099万吨，占比46.4%，为第一大煤炭进口国。第二为澳洲，2020年进口7809万吨，占比25.7%。招商证券称在澳煤禁令严格实施的2021年，印尼煤炭成为主要的进口替代品，前11个月占比已跃升至60.9%，进口总量1.78亿吨，同比增加6200万吨，涨幅为54%，较大程度缓解中国煤炭供应紧张的难题。国盛证券表示，若印尼煤禁止出口，将月均影响我国进口约1600万吨，占国内有效供应的5.3%，且难以通过其他国家弥补。若印尼出口禁令长期持续或将造成我国动力煤市场重回供需平衡甚至略偏紧局面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092887977,"gmtCreate":1644586104654,"gmtModify":1676533943710,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092887977","repostId":"1130140404","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130140404","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644585809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130140404?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-11 21:23","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"The operation of thousands of mines is suspended, and Southeast Asia's major resource exporting countries are causing trouble. What is the impact?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130140404","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"据界面新闻等报道，一份由印尼矿业部下属矿产和煤炭局发布的文件显示，由于未能提交2022年的工作计划，印尼已经暂停1000多个矿商的矿场（锡矿等）运营。在此前的1月初，印尼曾禁止煤炭出口1个月，或影响全","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Jiemian News and other reports, a document issued by the Mines and Coal Bureau under the Indonesian Ministry of Mines shows that Indonesia has suspended the operation of more than 1,000 miners' mines (tin mines, etc.) due to failure to submit a work plan for 2022.</p><p>In early January, Indonesia banned coal exports for one month, which may affect global coal prices, and was intensely covered by analyst research reports.</p><p>What are the main mineral resources in Indonesia? What impact may this matter have?</p><p>Today we will briefly sort out these problems.</p><p><b>Indonesia is rich in mineral resources</b></p><p>According to data from the Guotai Junan research report, Indonesia has a complete range of minerals, including bauxite, nickel ore, iron ore sand, copper, tin, gold, silver, etc., among which<b>Tin nickel aluminum</b>The reserves are the most abundant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9640a0c19f20e07f9d2da6eeaf59198a\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of nickel,</b>According to data from Huaxin Securities Research Report, global nickel resources are mainly distributed in Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and other places. China is in short supply of nickel ore resources, accounting for only 3% of the world's reserves. In terms of output, the world's main nickel producers include Indonesia, the Philippines, and Russia, of which Indonesia and the Philippines together account for 44%, while China's nickel ore output only accounts for 4.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce057b30be22c859fafbe25ef0eb1e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Guotai Junan pointed out that under the background of the booming development of the global new energy automobile industry, China's nickel ore imports have increased year by year, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 80%, while 50% of the imported nickel ore comes from Indonesia. Combined with Indonesia's historical restrictions on exports If you look at it, it may push up the price of nickel metal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36de095c1ed6b003ae245e8c7f2b1401\" tg-width=\"347\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>As for tin,</b>According to statistics, Indonesia's tin reserves rank second in the world, accounting for 17% of the world's total, second only to China, which accounts for 23% of the total; At the same time, Indonesia's tin production is also the second in the world, second only to my country with 22% of its output.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84ac1d4d3897a8c71c759548b70ad52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>As for bauxite,</b>China's dependence on foreign bauxite reaches about 60%, while 80% of imported bauxite comes from Indonesia. Based on the historical export control situation in Indonesia, Guotai Junan said that it may lead to an increase in domestic bauxite prices and increase the production costs of pure alumina and electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, thereby pushing up the price of electrolytic aluminum.</p><p><b>Indonesia's restrictions on the export of primary mineral products are a major trend</b></p><p>As the world's most upstream raw material supply base, more than 90% of Indonesia's nickel and aluminum metals are exported in the form of primary mineral products, and rarely undergo deep processing. In order to change its current situation of large population and backward economy, since 2002, Indonesia has restricted metal exports. Policies are often proposed by the government.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3fddc5e8231a5ee23552d48874de11\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On November 24, 2021, the Indonesian President stated that Indonesia may stop tin exports in 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry and improve the country's external balance. The government is likely to stop exporting bauxite in 2022 and copper ore in 2023.</p><p>Guotai Junan believes that Indonesia's restrictions on the export of primary mineral products will be a general trend. Historically,<b>If strictly implemented, the supply and demand side of aluminum and nickel will be greatly improved</b>, thus forming support for metal prices, and companies with high self-sufficiency rates are expected to benefit.</p><p><b>Third largest coal producer</b></p><p>Data show that Indonesia is currently the world's third largest coal producer and the world's largest exporter of thermal coal. At the same time, Indonesia is my country's largest source of coal/thermal coal imports. In 2020, my country imported a total of 300 million tons of coal, of which 140.99 million tons were imported from Indonesia, accounting for 46.4%, making it the largest coal importer. Second is Australia, which imported 78.09 million tons in 2020, accounting for 25.7%.</p><p>China Merchants Securities said that in 2021, when the Australian coal ban is strictly implemented, Indonesian coal will become the main import substitute. In the first 11 months, the proportion has jumped to 60.9%, and the total import volume is 178 million tons, an increase of 62 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 54%.%, to a large extent alleviating the problem of tight coal supply in China.</p><p>Guosheng Securities stated that if Indonesian coal exports are banned, it will affect my country's imports by an average of about 16 million tons per month, accounting for 5.3% of the effective domestic supply, and it will be difficult to make up for it through other countries. If Indonesia's export ban continues for a long time, it may cause my country's thermal coal market to return to a balance between supply and demand or even a slightly tight situation.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The operation of thousands of mines is suspended, and Southeast Asia's major resource exporting countries are causing trouble. What is the impact?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe operation of thousands of mines is suspended, and Southeast Asia's major resource exporting countries are causing trouble. What is the impact?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-11 21:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Jiemian News and other reports, a document issued by the Mines and Coal Bureau under the Indonesian Ministry of Mines shows that Indonesia has suspended the operation of more than 1,000 miners' mines (tin mines, etc.) due to failure to submit a work plan for 2022.</p><p>In early January, Indonesia banned coal exports for one month, which may affect global coal prices, and was intensely covered by analyst research reports.</p><p>What are the main mineral resources in Indonesia? What impact may this matter have?</p><p>Today we will briefly sort out these problems.</p><p><b>Indonesia is rich in mineral resources</b></p><p>According to data from the Guotai Junan research report, Indonesia has a complete range of minerals, including bauxite, nickel ore, iron ore sand, copper, tin, gold, silver, etc., among which<b>Tin nickel aluminum</b>The reserves are the most abundant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9640a0c19f20e07f9d2da6eeaf59198a\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of nickel,</b>According to data from Huaxin Securities Research Report, global nickel resources are mainly distributed in Indonesia, Australia, Brazil and other places. China is in short supply of nickel ore resources, accounting for only 3% of the world's reserves. In terms of output, the world's main nickel producers include Indonesia, the Philippines, and Russia, of which Indonesia and the Philippines together account for 44%, while China's nickel ore output only accounts for 4.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce057b30be22c859fafbe25ef0eb1e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Guotai Junan pointed out that under the background of the booming development of the global new energy automobile industry, China's nickel ore imports have increased year by year, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 80%, while 50% of the imported nickel ore comes from Indonesia. Combined with Indonesia's historical restrictions on exports If you look at it, it may push up the price of nickel metal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36de095c1ed6b003ae245e8c7f2b1401\" tg-width=\"347\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>As for tin,</b>According to statistics, Indonesia's tin reserves rank second in the world, accounting for 17% of the world's total, second only to China, which accounts for 23% of the total; At the same time, Indonesia's tin production is also the second in the world, second only to my country with 22% of its output.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84ac1d4d3897a8c71c759548b70ad52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>As for bauxite,</b>China's dependence on foreign bauxite reaches about 60%, while 80% of imported bauxite comes from Indonesia. Based on the historical export control situation in Indonesia, Guotai Junan said that it may lead to an increase in domestic bauxite prices and increase the production costs of pure alumina and electrolytic aluminum production enterprises, thereby pushing up the price of electrolytic aluminum.</p><p><b>Indonesia's restrictions on the export of primary mineral products are a major trend</b></p><p>As the world's most upstream raw material supply base, more than 90% of Indonesia's nickel and aluminum metals are exported in the form of primary mineral products, and rarely undergo deep processing. In order to change its current situation of large population and backward economy, since 2002, Indonesia has restricted metal exports. Policies are often proposed by the government.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3fddc5e8231a5ee23552d48874de11\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On November 24, 2021, the Indonesian President stated that Indonesia may stop tin exports in 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry and improve the country's external balance. The government is likely to stop exporting bauxite in 2022 and copper ore in 2023.</p><p>Guotai Junan believes that Indonesia's restrictions on the export of primary mineral products will be a general trend. Historically,<b>If strictly implemented, the supply and demand side of aluminum and nickel will be greatly improved</b>, thus forming support for metal prices, and companies with high self-sufficiency rates are expected to benefit.</p><p><b>Third largest coal producer</b></p><p>Data show that Indonesia is currently the world's third largest coal producer and the world's largest exporter of thermal coal. At the same time, Indonesia is my country's largest source of coal/thermal coal imports. In 2020, my country imported a total of 300 million tons of coal, of which 140.99 million tons were imported from Indonesia, accounting for 46.4%, making it the largest coal importer. Second is Australia, which imported 78.09 million tons in 2020, accounting for 25.7%.</p><p>China Merchants Securities said that in 2021, when the Australian coal ban is strictly implemented, Indonesian coal will become the main import substitute. In the first 11 months, the proportion has jumped to 60.9%, and the total import volume is 178 million tons, an increase of 62 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 54%.%, to a large extent alleviating the problem of tight coal supply in China.</p><p>Guosheng Securities stated that if Indonesian coal exports are banned, it will affect my country's imports by an average of about 16 million tons per month, accounting for 5.3% of the effective domestic supply, and it will be difficult to make up for it through other countries. If Indonesia's export ban continues for a long time, it may cause my country's thermal coal market to return to a balance between supply and demand or even a slightly tight situation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651702\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de37c6248d9a2641dda76d181c7cc1a6","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651702","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1130140404","content_text":"据界面新闻等报道，一份由印尼矿业部下属矿产和煤炭局发布的文件显示，由于未能提交2022年的工作计划，印尼已经暂停1000多个矿商的矿场（锡矿等）运营。在此前的1月初，印尼曾禁止煤炭出口1个月，或影响全球煤炭价格，而被分析师研报密集覆盖。印尼主要都有哪些矿产资源？这个事情又可能有哪些影响？今天我们来简单梳理一下这些问题。印尼矿产资源丰富据国泰君安研报数据显示，印尼矿产种类齐全、包括铝土矿、镍矿、铁矿沙、铜、锡、金、银等，其中尤其以锡镍铝储量最为丰富。镍方面，据华鑫证券研报数据，全球镍资源主要分布在印尼、澳大利亚、巴西等地，中国镍矿资源短缺，储量仅占全球的3%。产量上看，全球镍主要生产国有印尼、菲律宾、俄罗斯等，其中印尼和菲律宾合计占比达到44%，而中国的镍矿产量仅占4.8%。国泰君安指出，全球新能源汽车产业的发展如火如荼的背景下，中国镍矿进口量逐年增大，对外依存度达到80%以上，而进口的镍矿中50%来自印尼，结合历史上印尼限制出口情况来看的话，有可能会推升镍金属价格。锡方面，据统计数据，印尼锡储量位居世界第二，占世界总量的17%，仅次于占总量23%的中国；同时印尼的锡产量也是世界第二，以22%的产量成为仅次于我国。铝土矿方面，中国对国外铝土矿依存度达到60%左右，而进口的铝土矿中80%来自于印尼，结合历史上印尼出口控制情况来看的话，国泰君安表示，可能导致国内铝土矿价格上升，提升单纯的氧化铝、电解铝生产企业的生产成本，从而推升电解铝价格。印尼限制初级矿产品出口是大趋势作为全球最上游原料供应基地，印尼的镍及铝金属90%以上以初级矿产品形式出口，极少做深加工，为了改变自己人口众多、经济落后的现状，从2002年开始，印尼限制金属出口的政策就时常被政府提出。2021年11月24日，印尼总统就曾表示，印尼可能会在2024年停止锡出口，以吸引对资源加工业的投资并改善该国的外部平衡。政府可能会在2022年停止出口铝土矿，并在2023年停止出口铜矿石。国泰君安认为，印尼限制初级矿产品出口会是大趋势，从历史上来看的话，如果执行严格，将大幅改善铝、镍的供需面，从而对金属价格形成支撑，自给率高的企业有望受益。第三大煤炭生产国资料显示，目前印尼为全球第三大煤炭生产商，为世界上最大的动力煤出口国。同时印尼是我国煤炭/动力煤第一大进口来源国。2020年，我国累计进口煤炭3亿吨，其中自印尼进口14099万吨，占比46.4%，为第一大煤炭进口国。第二为澳洲，2020年进口7809万吨，占比25.7%。招商证券称在澳煤禁令严格实施的2021年，印尼煤炭成为主要的进口替代品，前11个月占比已跃升至60.9%，进口总量1.78亿吨，同比增加6200万吨，涨幅为54%，较大程度缓解中国煤炭供应紧张的难题。国盛证券表示，若印尼煤禁止出口，将月均影响我国进口约1600万吨，占国内有效供应的5.3%，且难以通过其他国家弥补。若印尼出口禁令长期持续或将造成我国动力煤市场重回供需平衡甚至略偏紧局面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152275082,"gmtCreate":1625304368846,"gmtModify":1703740255698,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152275082","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168133884?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on July 5 (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6 (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a legal national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4th every year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as grand as religious and folk festivals. Before the festival, ordinary people clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed all day on July 5\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Due to the Independence Day holiday in the United States, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day on July 5 (Monday), and trading will resume on July 6 (Tuesday).</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, British stocks, Australian stocks and Singapore stock markets are trading as usual.</p><p><b>Background brief:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a legal national day of the United States, which is dated on July 4th every year to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as grand as religious and folk festivals. Before the festival, ordinary people clean their courtyards, decorate their homes and fly the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036454302,"gmtCreate":1647205603425,"gmtModify":1676534201780,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeds","listText":"Yeds","text":"Yeds","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036454302","repostId":"2219740228","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2219740228","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647161733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2219740228?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-13 16:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Next week's blockbuster agenda: Will the Fed rate hike?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219740228","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：“超级央行周”拉开大幕，由美联储领衔，英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。数据方面，中国将公布70城房价月度报告，2月规模以上工业增加值、城镇固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额、房地","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: \"Super Central Bank Week\" has opened, led by the Federal Reserve. Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions. In terms of data, China will publish monthly housing prices in 70 cities, including industrial added value above designated size, urban fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods and real estate development investment in February.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dbecb5c988e5f6825a71fb446f71212\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1130\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>A list of major financial events in the week from March 14th to March 18th, the following is Beijing time:</p><p><b>Next week, \"Super Central Bank Week\" kicks off.</b>Led by the Federal Reserve, Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>Specifically, on March 17 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce interest rate decisions, policy statements and economic expectations, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference afterwards.</p><p><b>The United States will officially start the rate hike cycle,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that he would recommend a 25 basis point rate hike at the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 15-16. According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the entire financial market may continue to fluctuate violently due to factors such as the uncertain situation in Ukraine, increased European and American sanctions against Russia, and soaring commodity prices. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will be cautious about rate hike. There may not be rate hike at every FOMC meeting this year, and there may not be a single 50 basis point rate hike this year. In addition, economists also expect the Fed dot plot to show four to five rate hike this year.</p><p><b>For the Bank of England,</b>As energy prices hit UK markets, pound overnight index swaps show money markets are betting that the Bank of England will rate hike by more than 100 basis points by June. This implies that there will be two 25 basis point rate hike actions and one 50 basis point action, spread over the next three meetings, and also means that the Bank of England may conduct its third consecutive rate hike next week.</p><p><b>Data terms,</b>Next week, the National Bureau of Statistics will release a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. China will announce the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, urban fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, real estate development investment and sales in February. The United States will announce more indicators that the market is concerned about, including PPI, the total number of new housing starts and building permits, and the number of weekly initial jobless claims. Eurozone February CPI and other data will also be released.</p><p><b>In terms of new opportunities,</b>There will be 7 new shares available for subscription next week. Among them, 1 is a new stock on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 4 are new stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 2 are on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition, Jusailong plans to list on the Growth Enterprise Market on March 14, with the stock code 301131. Silinger is expected to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on the same day.</p><p><b>Funds,</b>The issuance reached a \"freezing point\", and the number of issuances decreased significantly in the first two weeks. It is expected that 17 new funds will be launched (combined shares). Among them, there are 10 closed-end funds, 2 partial stock hybrid funds and 2 passive index funds, 1 hybrid bond fund (secondary) and ordinary stock funds, and 1 medium and long-term pure debt fund.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>Next week, many A-share companies such as Foster, China Merchants Bank, Oriental Fortune, Ping An, Shede Liquor, Watson Bio, and Wanhua Chemical will release financial reports; Hong Kong stock financial reports focus on Li Ning and ZTO.</p><p><b>Other aspects</b>, continue to pay attention to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the 12th local time, Podolyak, a member of the Ukrainian delegation in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the chief adviser of the Ukrainian President's Office, said in an interview that after the third round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the two sides conducted video A series of communications were carried out and a working group was established.</p><p>In addition, the Central Bank of Russia extended the stock market closure to March 18. The Central Bank of Russia said on its official website that it will announce later whether to resume trading from March 21.</p><p>Economic data</p><p><ul><li>On Monday (March 14), France's January trade balance.</li><li>On Tuesday (March 15), China's urban survey unemployment rate in February, China's total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February year-on-year, China's urban fixed asset investment from January to February year-on-year, China's industrial added value above designated size from January to February year-on-year, China's national real estate development investment from January to February; U.S. February PPI and core PPI year-on-year, U.S. March New York Fed manufacturing index.</p><p></li><li>On Wednesday (March 16), the monthly report of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, the month-on-month retail sales in the United States in February, and the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to March 11.</li><li>On Thursday (March 17), the US FOMC interest rate decision (lower limit) and (upper limit), the Bank of England policy interest rate, the euro zone's February reconciled CPI final year-on-year value, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of March 12 in the United States (10,000 people).</li><li>On Friday (March 18), Japan's core CPI in February, the euro zone's seasonally adjusted trade balance in January, and the total annualized existing home sales in the United States in February (10,000 households).</li></ul>Global central banks</p><p><ul><li>On Monday (March 14), there was no major event in the central bank.</li><li>On Tuesday (March 15th), the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.</li><li>On Wednesday (March 16), there was no major event in the central bank.</li><li>On Thursday (March 17), the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision, policy statement and economic expectation, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision and meeting minutes, and Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey and other emerging market central banks announced interest rate decisions.</li><li>On Friday (March 18th), the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision, and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held a monetary policy press conference.</li></ul>Take a new opportunity</p><p>There will be 7 new shares available for subscription next week. Among them, 1 is a new stock on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 4 are new stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 2 are on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition, Jusailong plans to land on the Growth Enterprise Market on March 14, with the stock code 301131. Silinger is expected to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on the same day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0970e519b6eff1dedc820bb11ef895c\" tg-width=\"1413\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>New fund</p><p>Fund issuance has reached a \"freezing point\", and the number of issuances has decreased significantly in the first two weeks. It is expected that 17 new funds will be launched (combined share calculation).</p><p>Among them, there are 10 closed-end funds, 2 partial stock hybrid funds and 2 passive index funds, 1 hybrid bond fund (secondary) and ordinary stock funds, and 1 medium and long-term pure debt fund.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/220c0753436100d10755a954c253911e\" tg-width=\"1411\" tg-height=\"791\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Financial reports Next week, many A-share companies such as Foster, China Merchants Bank, Oriental Fortune, Ping An of China, Shede Liquor Industry, Watson Bio and Wanhua Chemical will release financial reports; Hong Kong stock financial report attention: Li Ning, ZTO; In terms of U.S. stocks, Meituan Pinduoduo may release financial reports.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Next week's blockbuster agenda: Will the Fed rate hike?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNext week's blockbuster agenda: Will the Fed rate hike?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-13 16:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: \"Super Central Bank Week\" has opened, led by the Federal Reserve. Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions. In terms of data, China will publish monthly housing prices in 70 cities, including industrial added value above designated size, urban fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods and real estate development investment in February.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dbecb5c988e5f6825a71fb446f71212\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1130\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>A list of major financial events in the week from March 14th to March 18th, the following is Beijing time:</p><p><b>Next week, \"Super Central Bank Week\" kicks off.</b>Led by the Federal Reserve, Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>Specifically, on March 17 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce interest rate decisions, policy statements and economic expectations, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference afterwards.</p><p><b>The United States will officially start the rate hike cycle,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that he would recommend a 25 basis point rate hike at the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 15-16. According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the entire financial market may continue to fluctuate violently due to factors such as the uncertain situation in Ukraine, increased European and American sanctions against Russia, and soaring commodity prices. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will be cautious about rate hike. There may not be rate hike at every FOMC meeting this year, and there may not be a single 50 basis point rate hike this year. In addition, economists also expect the Fed dot plot to show four to five rate hike this year.</p><p><b>For the Bank of England,</b>As energy prices hit UK markets, pound overnight index swaps show money markets are betting that the Bank of England will rate hike by more than 100 basis points by June. This implies that there will be two 25 basis point rate hike actions and one 50 basis point action, spread over the next three meetings, and also means that the Bank of England may conduct its third consecutive rate hike next week.</p><p><b>Data terms,</b>Next week, the National Bureau of Statistics will release a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. China will announce the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, urban fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, real estate development investment and sales in February. The United States will announce more indicators that the market is concerned about, including PPI, the total number of new housing starts and building permits, and the number of weekly initial jobless claims. Eurozone February CPI and other data will also be released.</p><p><b>In terms of new opportunities,</b>There will be 7 new shares available for subscription next week. Among them, 1 is a new stock on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 4 are new stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 2 are on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition, Jusailong plans to list on the Growth Enterprise Market on March 14, with the stock code 301131. Silinger is expected to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on the same day.</p><p><b>Funds,</b>The issuance reached a \"freezing point\", and the number of issuances decreased significantly in the first two weeks. It is expected that 17 new funds will be launched (combined shares). Among them, there are 10 closed-end funds, 2 partial stock hybrid funds and 2 passive index funds, 1 hybrid bond fund (secondary) and ordinary stock funds, and 1 medium and long-term pure debt fund.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>Next week, many A-share companies such as Foster, China Merchants Bank, Oriental Fortune, Ping An, Shede Liquor, Watson Bio, and Wanhua Chemical will release financial reports; Hong Kong stock financial reports focus on Li Ning and ZTO.</p><p><b>Other aspects</b>, continue to pay attention to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the 12th local time, Podolyak, a member of the Ukrainian delegation in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the chief adviser of the Ukrainian President's Office, said in an interview that after the third round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the two sides conducted video A series of communications were carried out and a working group was established.</p><p>In addition, the Central Bank of Russia extended the stock market closure to March 18. The Central Bank of Russia said on its official website that it will announce later whether to resume trading from March 21.</p><p>Economic data</p><p><ul><li>On Monday (March 14), France's January trade balance.</li><li>On Tuesday (March 15), China's urban survey unemployment rate in February, China's total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February year-on-year, China's urban fixed asset investment from January to February year-on-year, China's industrial added value above designated size from January to February year-on-year, China's national real estate development investment from January to February; U.S. February PPI and core PPI year-on-year, U.S. March New York Fed manufacturing index.</p><p></li><li>On Wednesday (March 16), the monthly report of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, the month-on-month retail sales in the United States in February, and the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to March 11.</li><li>On Thursday (March 17), the US FOMC interest rate decision (lower limit) and (upper limit), the Bank of England policy interest rate, the euro zone's February reconciled CPI final year-on-year value, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of March 12 in the United States (10,000 people).</li><li>On Friday (March 18), Japan's core CPI in February, the euro zone's seasonally adjusted trade balance in January, and the total annualized existing home sales in the United States in February (10,000 households).</li></ul>Global central banks</p><p><ul><li>On Monday (March 14), there was no major event in the central bank.</li><li>On Tuesday (March 15th), the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.</li><li>On Wednesday (March 16), there was no major event in the central bank.</li><li>On Thursday (March 17), the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision, policy statement and economic expectation, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision and meeting minutes, and Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey and other emerging market central banks announced interest rate decisions.</li><li>On Friday (March 18th), the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision, and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held a monetary policy press conference.</li></ul>Take a new opportunity</p><p>There will be 7 new shares available for subscription next week. Among them, 1 is a new stock on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 4 are new stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 2 are on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition, Jusailong plans to land on the Growth Enterprise Market on March 14, with the stock code 301131. Silinger is expected to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on the same day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0970e519b6eff1dedc820bb11ef895c\" tg-width=\"1413\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>New fund</p><p>Fund issuance has reached a \"freezing point\", and the number of issuances has decreased significantly in the first two weeks. It is expected that 17 new funds will be launched (combined share calculation).</p><p>Among them, there are 10 closed-end funds, 2 partial stock hybrid funds and 2 passive index funds, 1 hybrid bond fund (secondary) and ordinary stock funds, and 1 medium and long-term pure debt fund.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/220c0753436100d10755a954c253911e\" tg-width=\"1411\" tg-height=\"791\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Financial reports Next week, many A-share companies such as Foster, China Merchants Bank, Oriental Fortune, Ping An of China, Shede Liquor Industry, Watson Bio and Wanhua Chemical will release financial reports; Hong Kong stock financial report attention: Li Ning, ZTO; In terms of U.S. stocks, Meituan Pinduoduo may release financial reports.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654032\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654032","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2219740228","content_text":"摘要：“超级央行周”拉开大幕，由美联储领衔，英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。数据方面，中国将公布70城房价月度报告，2月规模以上工业增加值、城镇固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额、房地产开发投资。3月14日至3月18日当周重磅财经事件一览，以下均为北京时间：下周，“超级央行周”拉开大幕，由美联储领衔，英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。具体来看，3月17日（周四），美联储FOMC将公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期，美联储主席鲍威尔也在此后将召开新闻发布会。美国将正式开启加息周期，美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示，他将于3月15-16日为期两天的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上建议加息25个基点。据彭博社调查的经济学家表示，受到乌克兰局势不确定、欧美对俄制裁加码和大宗商品价格飙升等因素影响，整个金融市场可能会持续剧烈波动，预计美联储将会对加息持谨慎态度，今年可能不会在每次FOMC会议上加息，并且今年可能不会有单次50个基点的加息幅度。此外，经济学家还预计美联储点阵图将会显示今年加息四至五次。英国央行方面，在能源价格冲击英国市场之际，英镑隔夜指数掉期显示，货币市场押注到6月份，英国央行将加息超过100个基点。这暗示25个基点的加息行动将有两次、50个基点一次，分散到未来三次会议上，也意味着下周英国央行可能连续第三次加息。数据方面，下周，国家统计局将发布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告，中国将公布2月规模以上工业增加值、城镇固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额、房地产开发投资与销售。美国将公布更多市场关注的指标，包括PPI、新屋开工及营建许可总数、每周首次申请失业金人数等。欧元区2月CPI等数据也将公布。打新机会方面，下周将有7只新股可申购。其中，1只为科创板新股，4只为创业板新股，2只上证主板。此外，聚赛龙拟3月14日登陆创业板，证券代码301131。思林杰预计同日在科创板上市。基金方面，发行遇“冰点”，发行数量就前两周大幅减少，预计有17只新基金首发(份额合并计算)。其中，包括封闭式基金10只、偏股混合型基金和被动指数型基金各2只、混合债券型基金(二级)和普通股票型基金、中长期纯债型基金各1只。财报方面，下周福斯特、招商银行、东方财富、中国平安、舍得酒业、沃森生物、万华化学等多家A股公司将发布财报；港股财报关注李宁、中通。其他方面，持续关注俄乌冲突进展，当地时间12日，俄乌谈判乌方代表团成员、乌总统办公室主任顾问波多利亚克在接受采访时表示，乌俄进行第三轮谈判后，双方以视频方式开展了系列沟通并成立了工作组。此外，俄罗斯央行将股市停开时间延长至3月18日。俄罗斯央行在官网表示，将在稍后宣布是否从3月21日起恢复交易。经济数据周一（3月14日），法国1月贸易帐。周二（3月15日），中国2月城镇调查失业率，中国1至2月社会消费品零售总额同比，中国1至2月城镇固定资产投资同比，中国1至2月规模以上工业增加值同比，中国1至2月全国房地产开发投资；美国2月PPI以及核心PPI同比，美国3月纽约联储制造业指数。周三（3月16日），中国70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告，美国2月零售销售环比，美国至3月11日当周EIA原油库存。周四（3月17日），美国FOMC利率决策(下限)以及(上限)，英国央行政策利率，欧元区2月调和CPI同比终值，美国3月12日当周首次申请失业救济人数(万人)。周五（3月18日），日本2月核心CPI，欧元区1月季调后贸易帐，美国2月成屋销售总数年化(万户)。全球央行周一（3月14日），央行方面无大事。周二（3月15日），澳洲联储公布货币政策会议纪要。周三（3月16日），央行方面无大事。周四（3月17日），美联储FOMC公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话， 英国央行公布利率决议和会议纪要，巴西、印尼、土耳其等新兴市场央行公布利率决议。周五（3月18日），日本央行公布利率决议，日本央行行长黑田东彦召开货币政策新闻发布会。打新机会下周将有7只新股可申购。其中，1只为科创板新股，4只为创业板新股，2只上证主板。此外，聚赛龙拟3月14日登陆创业板，证券代码301131。思林杰预计同日在科创板上市。新发基金基金发行遇“冰点”，发行数量就前两周大幅减少，预计有17只新基金首发(份额合并计算)。其中，包括封闭式基金10只、偏股混合型基金和被动指数型基金各2只、混合债券型基金(二级)和普通股票型基金、中长期纯债型基金各1只。财报下周福斯特、招商银行、东方财富、中国平安、舍得酒业、沃森生物、万华化学等多家A股公司将发布财报；港股财报关注：李宁、中通；美股方面，美团拼多多可能发布财报。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPY":1,"SQQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":1,"NQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036455889,"gmtCreate":1647205458475,"gmtModify":1676534201717,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036455889","repostId":"2219223939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031729805,"gmtCreate":1646675582373,"gmtModify":1676534149336,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031729805","repostId":"1185303476","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031962422,"gmtCreate":1646422496794,"gmtModify":1676534127637,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031962422","repostId":"2216451963","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216451963","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646407209,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216451963?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-04 23:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"During the U.S. rate hike, will the outcome of interest rate cuts against the trend be good?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216451963","media":"格隆汇","summary":"核心观点美国加息，新兴市场是否只能被动跟随？回顾历史，选择逆势降息的例子并不罕见，且政策分化并不一定带来股债的额外压力。1999年美国加息周期：巴西放松汇率限制，日本延续低利率环境。相对其他新兴市场，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>Rate hike in the United States, can emerging markets only follow passively? Looking back at history, it is not uncommon to choose to cut interest rates against the trend, and policy differentiation does not necessarily bring additional pressure on stocks and bonds.</b></p><p>1999 US rate hike cycle: Brazil relaxes exchange rate restrictions, Japanese continues low interest rate environment. Compared with other emerging markets, the Brazilian currency performed weaker, but the stock market recovered quickly after short-term shocks.</p><p>U.S. rate hike cycle in 2004: South Korea and South Africa cut interest rates slightly in the early stage, and Brazil cut interest rates in the later stage. The currencies and stock markets of South Korea, Brazil and South Africa did not underperform emerging markets as a whole, or even performed stronger. The bond markets of South Africa and South Korea are not bad either.</p><p>U.S. rate hike cycle in 2015: Multinational policy cycles are misaligned with the United States, and emerging markets as a whole remain loose. The exchange rates of many BRICS countries are under pressure, but the stock market is resilient. Interest rates are generally lower, diverging from U.S. debt.</p><p>What are the revelations?</p><p>(1) It is not uncommon to cut interest rates against the trend. In recent rounds of U.S. rate hike cycles, representative emerging economies have embarked on the road of policy differentiation to cope with the downward pressure on the domestic economy. \"Me-oriented\" is not unique to our country.</p><p>(2) In the U.S. rate hike cycle, emerging market currencies are not bad as a whole, but the currencies of countries that cut interest rates against the trend are relatively weak, and even have depreciation pressure. A major cost or risk of choosing to cut interest rates against the trend may come from the pressure of the exchange rate.</p><p>(3) At the beginning of the U.S. rate hike cycle, emerging market stock markets were prone to short-term adjustments, but they quickly recovered. Countries that cut interest rates against the trend did not experience additional pressure, and even performed better. On the whole, emerging market stock markets only tend to decline in the late rate hike cycle (which may reflect more of the weakening of the economy), and cutting interest rates against the trend will bring more support to domestic stock markets.</p><p>(4) In the bond market, in the process of interest rate cuts against the trend, it is not clear that the yield is affected by the United States, and the downward trend often appears. Domestic bond market interest rates are mostly determined by the orientation of domestic monetary policy, and debt bulls are not unexpected.</p><p>(5) Going back to the domestic trend this year, the Federal Reserve's rate hike is indeed an external constraint, but there is no need to overemphasize its constraint. If the effect of stabilizing growth is not ideal, inflationary pressure is controllable, and there is still room for easing monetary policy. In this process, the impact of the bond market and the stock market should not be overestimated, and the trend of both may depend more on the market's understanding of domestic policies.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>In 2022, there will be pressure to stabilize domestic growth, which needs to be coordinated by loose monetary policy. In the context of the Federal Reserve's rate hike, it is generally believed that emerging markets are facing the pressure of capital outflow, and it is difficult to implement loose monetary policy, so they can only follow passively. How much room for domestic easing this year is a matter of concern to the market. Fed Tightening Series</p><p>In the second part, we review the examples of other emerging market countries cutting interest rates against the trend in several U.S. rate hike cycles in history, and observe the effect.</p><p><h3><b>1. U.S. rate hike cycle in 1999: Brazilian substantial easing</b></h3><b>Brazil relaxes exchange rate restrictions, and Japan continues its low interest rate environment.</b></p><p>Among the representative countries, Brazil and Japan clearly chose to enter the interest rate cut cycle. Previously, Brazil carried out financial liberalization reform and raised the benchmark interest rate to an astonishing 43% in order to attract foreign capital inflows. Since then, under the Southeast Asian financial crisis, international capital flows and Brazil's domestic debt crisis, the central bank has abandoned the monetary policy of ultra-high interest rates. In January 1999,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The exchange rate floating range mechanism implemented since March 1995 to encourage small currency depreciation within the prescribed range was abandoned, the real was allowed to float freely against the US dollar, and the interest rate cut was loosened to cope with the crisis. During this period, the interest rate was quickly cut to 15.25%. An interesting point is that before the US rate hike began, Brazil had already started the interest rate cut cycle, and there was a situation similar to the early response. Since the 1990s, Japan has always faced an economic environment of low inflation and low growth. In Japan, the central bank took the lead in adopting a more radical zero interest rate policy in the world. During this period, Japan's policy rate dropped slightly from 0.25% to 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d01b4b8e6fd09c817547dd9dabee2e2\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Under the interest rate cut against the trend, the Brazilian currency performed weaker than other emerging markets, but the stock market recovered quickly after the short-term shock.</b></p><p>During the Fed's rate hike cycle, there will definitely be negative exchange rate, zero interest rate, stock market and other impacts in emerging markets. Compared with the overall trend of emerging markets, the additional impact of Brazilian interest rate cuts against the trend can be assessed to a certain extent. In terms of exchange rate, during the current rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve, the overall trend of emerging market currencies is strong, and there is no trend depreciation. However, the overall trend of the Brazilian real is weak, depreciating significantly in the early stage of the U.S. rate hike and repairing later. In comparison, the Brazilian stock market is more resilient. At the beginning of the rate hike, both emerging markets and Brazilian stock markets experienced short-term corrections, and the Brazilian stock market had a larger correction, but then both recovered lost ground and returned to the trend, and the Brazilian stock market rebounded even more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01f71a4a0af398a0f71face0b7db3600\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3><b>2. U.S. rate hike cycle in 2004: South Africa and South Korea temporarily cut interest rates</b></h3><b>South Korea and South Africa cut interest rates slightly in the early stage, and Brazil cut interest rates in the later stage.</b></p><p>In the early stage of this round of U.S. rate hike, both South Africa and South Korea chose two small interest rate cuts to test, but the duration was not long. South Africa's benchmark interest rate dropped from 8% to 7% in 2004-2005. South Korea's economic downturn, sluggish consumption, and rising commodity prices have brought pressure on GDP growth, while the CPI has remained moderate. It also cut interest rates by 50 bp to 3.25% in 2004-2005. In 2006, the two countries successively ended interest rate cuts and started rate hike. The situation in Brazil is just the opposite. In 2004, Brazil complied with the US rate hike cycle and continuously raised its benchmark interest rate. At the end of 2005, in order to alleviate the pressure of government debt and cope with the continued economic downturn, Brazil began to cut interest rates continuously, and the benchmark interest rate dropped from 20% to 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50007eadc9e3379668f159df0ffed61c\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>During the period of interest rate cuts against the trend, the currencies and stock markets of South Korea, Brazil and South Africa did not underperform the emerging markets as a whole, and even performed stronger.</b></p><p>In the 2004 U.S. rate hike cycle, emerging market currencies and stock markets did not show a downward trend, but an overall upward trend, and even large-scale adjustments were not seen. South Korea and South Africa, which chose to cut interest rates against the trend in the early stage, did not lose that of emerging markets as a whole, but the South African rand fell sharply when interest rates were cut later. The Brazilian real, which cut interest rates in the later period, also showed a market to stop falling and repair. During its previous rate hike, the exchange rate trend was very poor. A similar situation has occurred in the stock market. Throughout the rate hike cycle, the stock markets of the three countries as a whole outperformed the emerging markets as a whole.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9bf8dcc91a43c3959059d02a0299cb2\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>South Africa and South Korea are cutting interest rates against the trend, and Treasury Bond's performance is not bad.</b>Another topic that everyone is more concerned about is how the bond market behaves. Take South Africa and South Korea as examples, both of which operated against the trend in the first half of the US rate hike. At this stage, first of all, the overall U.S. debt is relatively stable, and the sharp rise after the rate hike is implemented is not obvious. Secondly, the yields of Korean and South African Treasury Bond both declined significantly, with the range exceeding 100 bp. Therefore, the trend of Treasury Bond at this stage is still determined by domestic monetary policy as a whole.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7d0469b9ba1806e0185a301422a4d9e\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3>3. U.S. rate hike cycle in 2015: collective easing of BRICS countries</h3><b>Cycles in many countries have been misaligned, and emerging markets as a whole have remained loose.</b>Due to weak economic growth and continued decline in inflation, and relatively high interest rates in emerging market countries, although the Federal Reserve has entered a rate hike cycle, most emerging market countries still choose to continue to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Representative BRICS countries continued to cut interest rates during the most aggressive period of 2017-2018 in the U.S. rate hike. From the end of 2015 to the beginning of 2018, Brazil's benchmark interest rate dropped from 14.25% to about 6%; From mid-2016 to mid-2018, Russia's benchmark interest rate dropped from 11% to about 7%; India's benchmark interest rate dropped from 6.5% to 6% from late 2015 to mid-2018. In addition, countries such as Korea and Australia also kept interest rates low and did not follow the US rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03504b856dafddc3df53b3edb327fbc8\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The exchange rate is under pressure and the stock market is resilient.</b></p><p>The same point as the two rounds is that emerging market currencies as a whole still tend to rise, and U.S. rate hike has not brought systemic depreciation pressure. However, in several countries that have cut interest rates against the trend, the exchange rate trend is not ideal. In the early stage of Russia's interest rate cut in 2016, the appreciation of the ruble was significantly higher than that of emerging markets as a whole, but the good times didn't last long, and then it significantly underperformed. The Brazilian real also appreciated sharply at the beginning, but after the interest rate cut started, the depreciation pressure increased sharply. The situation in India is similar, where the rupee trend is significantly weaker than the overall throughout the range. The stock market is another story. Overall, the indexes of the three countries outperformed the emerging markets as a whole.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc0d824e81259b97e088977997f7ef65\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Interest rates are generally lower, diverging from U.S. debt.</b>Except for the Indian Treasury Bond interest rate, which began to rise in 2017, the Treasury Bond interest rates of the three countries are mainly lower in the rest of the time, and are not highly consistent with the trend of US Treasury yields. US Treasury yields began to fluctuate upward in mid-2016, but the yields of Brazilian and Russian bonds continued to trend downward in the following year and a half, and the Indian upward trend was not high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a38aafc6b6fb0a6a3b1eb6ca87468bb\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3><b>4. Enlightenment: It is not uncommon to cut interest rates against the trend, and the additional impact of stocks and bonds need not be overestimated</b></h3>After sorting out the previous periods of interest rate cuts in emerging markets against the trend, we generally have the following inspirations:</p><p><b>(1) It is not uncommon to cut interest rates against the trend. In recent rounds of U.S. rate hike cycles, representative emerging economies have embarked on the road of policy differentiation to cope with the downward pressure on the domestic economy. \"Me-oriented\" is not unique to our country.</b></p><p><b>(2) In the U.S. rate hike cycle, emerging market currencies are not bad as a whole, but the currencies of countries that cut interest rates against the trend are relatively weak, and even have depreciation pressure. A major cost or risk of choosing to cut interest rates against the trend may come from the pressure of the exchange rate.</b></p><p><b>(3) At the beginning of the U.S. rate hike cycle, emerging market stock markets were prone to short-term adjustments, but they quickly recovered. Countries that cut interest rates against the trend did not experience additional pressure, and even performed better. Overall, emerging market stock markets only tend to decline in the late rate hike cycle (which may reflect more of the weakening of the economy), and cutting interest rates against the trend will bring more support to domestic stock markets.</b></p><p><b>(4) In the bond market, in the process of interest rate cuts against the trend, it is not clear that the yield is affected by the United States, and the downward trend often appears. Domestic bond market interest rates are mostly determined by the orientation of domestic monetary policy, and debt bulls are not unexpected.</b></p><p><b>(5) Going back to the domestic trend this year, the Federal Reserve's rate hike is indeed an external constraint, but there is no need to overemphasize its constraint. If the effect of stabilizing growth is not ideal, inflationary pressure is controllable, and there is still room for easing monetary policy. In this process, the impact of the bond market and the stock market should not be overestimated, and the trend of both may depend more on the market's understanding of domestic policies.</b></p><p>Risk warning: Economic growth is not up to expectations, and policy withdrawal exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>During the U.S. rate hike, will the outcome of interest rate cuts against the trend be good?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDuring the U.S. rate hike, will the outcome of interest rate cuts against the trend be good?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-04 23:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>Rate hike in the United States, can emerging markets only follow passively? Looking back at history, it is not uncommon to choose to cut interest rates against the trend, and policy differentiation does not necessarily bring additional pressure on stocks and bonds.</b></p><p>1999 US rate hike cycle: Brazil relaxes exchange rate restrictions, Japanese continues low interest rate environment. Compared with other emerging markets, the Brazilian currency performed weaker, but the stock market recovered quickly after short-term shocks.</p><p>U.S. rate hike cycle in 2004: South Korea and South Africa cut interest rates slightly in the early stage, and Brazil cut interest rates in the later stage. The currencies and stock markets of South Korea, Brazil and South Africa did not underperform emerging markets as a whole, or even performed stronger. The bond markets of South Africa and South Korea are not bad either.</p><p>U.S. rate hike cycle in 2015: Multinational policy cycles are misaligned with the United States, and emerging markets as a whole remain loose. The exchange rates of many BRICS countries are under pressure, but the stock market is resilient. Interest rates are generally lower, diverging from U.S. debt.</p><p>What are the revelations?</p><p>(1) It is not uncommon to cut interest rates against the trend. In recent rounds of U.S. rate hike cycles, representative emerging economies have embarked on the road of policy differentiation to cope with the downward pressure on the domestic economy. \"Me-oriented\" is not unique to our country.</p><p>(2) In the U.S. rate hike cycle, emerging market currencies are not bad as a whole, but the currencies of countries that cut interest rates against the trend are relatively weak, and even have depreciation pressure. A major cost or risk of choosing to cut interest rates against the trend may come from the pressure of the exchange rate.</p><p>(3) At the beginning of the U.S. rate hike cycle, emerging market stock markets were prone to short-term adjustments, but they quickly recovered. Countries that cut interest rates against the trend did not experience additional pressure, and even performed better. On the whole, emerging market stock markets only tend to decline in the late rate hike cycle (which may reflect more of the weakening of the economy), and cutting interest rates against the trend will bring more support to domestic stock markets.</p><p>(4) In the bond market, in the process of interest rate cuts against the trend, it is not clear that the yield is affected by the United States, and the downward trend often appears. Domestic bond market interest rates are mostly determined by the orientation of domestic monetary policy, and debt bulls are not unexpected.</p><p>(5) Going back to the domestic trend this year, the Federal Reserve's rate hike is indeed an external constraint, but there is no need to overemphasize its constraint. If the effect of stabilizing growth is not ideal, inflationary pressure is controllable, and there is still room for easing monetary policy. In this process, the impact of the bond market and the stock market should not be overestimated, and the trend of both may depend more on the market's understanding of domestic policies.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>In 2022, there will be pressure to stabilize domestic growth, which needs to be coordinated by loose monetary policy. In the context of the Federal Reserve's rate hike, it is generally believed that emerging markets are facing the pressure of capital outflow, and it is difficult to implement loose monetary policy, so they can only follow passively. How much room for domestic easing this year is a matter of concern to the market. Fed Tightening Series</p><p>In the second part, we review the examples of other emerging market countries cutting interest rates against the trend in several U.S. rate hike cycles in history, and observe the effect.</p><p><h3><b>1. U.S. rate hike cycle in 1999: Brazilian substantial easing</b></h3><b>Brazil relaxes exchange rate restrictions, and Japan continues its low interest rate environment.</b></p><p>Among the representative countries, Brazil and Japan clearly chose to enter the interest rate cut cycle. Previously, Brazil carried out financial liberalization reform and raised the benchmark interest rate to an astonishing 43% in order to attract foreign capital inflows. Since then, under the Southeast Asian financial crisis, international capital flows and Brazil's domestic debt crisis, the central bank has abandoned the monetary policy of ultra-high interest rates. In January 1999,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The exchange rate floating range mechanism implemented since March 1995 to encourage small currency depreciation within the prescribed range was abandoned, the real was allowed to float freely against the US dollar, and the interest rate cut was loosened to cope with the crisis. During this period, the interest rate was quickly cut to 15.25%. An interesting point is that before the US rate hike began, Brazil had already started the interest rate cut cycle, and there was a situation similar to the early response. Since the 1990s, Japan has always faced an economic environment of low inflation and low growth. In Japan, the central bank took the lead in adopting a more radical zero interest rate policy in the world. During this period, Japan's policy rate dropped slightly from 0.25% to 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d01b4b8e6fd09c817547dd9dabee2e2\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Under the interest rate cut against the trend, the Brazilian currency performed weaker than other emerging markets, but the stock market recovered quickly after the short-term shock.</b></p><p>During the Fed's rate hike cycle, there will definitely be negative exchange rate, zero interest rate, stock market and other impacts in emerging markets. Compared with the overall trend of emerging markets, the additional impact of Brazilian interest rate cuts against the trend can be assessed to a certain extent. In terms of exchange rate, during the current rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve, the overall trend of emerging market currencies is strong, and there is no trend depreciation. However, the overall trend of the Brazilian real is weak, depreciating significantly in the early stage of the U.S. rate hike and repairing later. In comparison, the Brazilian stock market is more resilient. At the beginning of the rate hike, both emerging markets and Brazilian stock markets experienced short-term corrections, and the Brazilian stock market had a larger correction, but then both recovered lost ground and returned to the trend, and the Brazilian stock market rebounded even more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01f71a4a0af398a0f71face0b7db3600\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3><b>2. U.S. rate hike cycle in 2004: South Africa and South Korea temporarily cut interest rates</b></h3><b>South Korea and South Africa cut interest rates slightly in the early stage, and Brazil cut interest rates in the later stage.</b></p><p>In the early stage of this round of U.S. rate hike, both South Africa and South Korea chose two small interest rate cuts to test, but the duration was not long. South Africa's benchmark interest rate dropped from 8% to 7% in 2004-2005. South Korea's economic downturn, sluggish consumption, and rising commodity prices have brought pressure on GDP growth, while the CPI has remained moderate. It also cut interest rates by 50 bp to 3.25% in 2004-2005. In 2006, the two countries successively ended interest rate cuts and started rate hike. The situation in Brazil is just the opposite. In 2004, Brazil complied with the US rate hike cycle and continuously raised its benchmark interest rate. At the end of 2005, in order to alleviate the pressure of government debt and cope with the continued economic downturn, Brazil began to cut interest rates continuously, and the benchmark interest rate dropped from 20% to 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50007eadc9e3379668f159df0ffed61c\" tg-width=\"654\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>During the period of interest rate cuts against the trend, the currencies and stock markets of South Korea, Brazil and South Africa did not underperform the emerging markets as a whole, and even performed stronger.</b></p><p>In the 2004 U.S. rate hike cycle, emerging market currencies and stock markets did not show a downward trend, but an overall upward trend, and even large-scale adjustments were not seen. South Korea and South Africa, which chose to cut interest rates against the trend in the early stage, did not lose that of emerging markets as a whole, but the South African rand fell sharply when interest rates were cut later. The Brazilian real, which cut interest rates in the later period, also showed a market to stop falling and repair. During its previous rate hike, the exchange rate trend was very poor. A similar situation has occurred in the stock market. Throughout the rate hike cycle, the stock markets of the three countries as a whole outperformed the emerging markets as a whole.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9bf8dcc91a43c3959059d02a0299cb2\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>South Africa and South Korea are cutting interest rates against the trend, and Treasury Bond's performance is not bad.</b>Another topic that everyone is more concerned about is how the bond market behaves. Take South Africa and South Korea as examples, both of which operated against the trend in the first half of the US rate hike. At this stage, first of all, the overall U.S. debt is relatively stable, and the sharp rise after the rate hike is implemented is not obvious. Secondly, the yields of Korean and South African Treasury Bond both declined significantly, with the range exceeding 100 bp. Therefore, the trend of Treasury Bond at this stage is still determined by domestic monetary policy as a whole.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7d0469b9ba1806e0185a301422a4d9e\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3>3. U.S. rate hike cycle in 2015: collective easing of BRICS countries</h3><b>Cycles in many countries have been misaligned, and emerging markets as a whole have remained loose.</b>Due to weak economic growth and continued decline in inflation, and relatively high interest rates in emerging market countries, although the Federal Reserve has entered a rate hike cycle, most emerging market countries still choose to continue to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. Representative BRICS countries continued to cut interest rates during the most aggressive period of 2017-2018 in the U.S. rate hike. From the end of 2015 to the beginning of 2018, Brazil's benchmark interest rate dropped from 14.25% to about 6%; From mid-2016 to mid-2018, Russia's benchmark interest rate dropped from 11% to about 7%; India's benchmark interest rate dropped from 6.5% to 6% from late 2015 to mid-2018. In addition, countries such as Korea and Australia also kept interest rates low and did not follow the US rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03504b856dafddc3df53b3edb327fbc8\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The exchange rate is under pressure and the stock market is resilient.</b></p><p>The same point as the two rounds is that emerging market currencies as a whole still tend to rise, and U.S. rate hike has not brought systemic depreciation pressure. However, in several countries that have cut interest rates against the trend, the exchange rate trend is not ideal. In the early stage of Russia's interest rate cut in 2016, the appreciation of the ruble was significantly higher than that of emerging markets as a whole, but the good times didn't last long, and then it significantly underperformed. The Brazilian real also appreciated sharply at the beginning, but after the interest rate cut started, the depreciation pressure increased sharply. The situation in India is similar, where the rupee trend is significantly weaker than the overall throughout the range. The stock market is another story. Overall, the indexes of the three countries outperformed the emerging markets as a whole.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc0d824e81259b97e088977997f7ef65\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Interest rates are generally lower, diverging from U.S. debt.</b>Except for the Indian Treasury Bond interest rate, which began to rise in 2017, the Treasury Bond interest rates of the three countries are mainly lower in the rest of the time, and are not highly consistent with the trend of US Treasury yields. US Treasury yields began to fluctuate upward in mid-2016, but the yields of Brazilian and Russian bonds continued to trend downward in the following year and a half, and the Indian upward trend was not high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a38aafc6b6fb0a6a3b1eb6ca87468bb\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><h3><b>4. Enlightenment: It is not uncommon to cut interest rates against the trend, and the additional impact of stocks and bonds need not be overestimated</b></h3>After sorting out the previous periods of interest rate cuts in emerging markets against the trend, we generally have the following inspirations:</p><p><b>(1) It is not uncommon to cut interest rates against the trend. In recent rounds of U.S. rate hike cycles, representative emerging economies have embarked on the road of policy differentiation to cope with the downward pressure on the domestic economy. \"Me-oriented\" is not unique to our country.</b></p><p><b>(2) In the U.S. rate hike cycle, emerging market currencies are not bad as a whole, but the currencies of countries that cut interest rates against the trend are relatively weak, and even have depreciation pressure. A major cost or risk of choosing to cut interest rates against the trend may come from the pressure of the exchange rate.</b></p><p><b>(3) At the beginning of the U.S. rate hike cycle, emerging market stock markets were prone to short-term adjustments, but they quickly recovered. Countries that cut interest rates against the trend did not experience additional pressure, and even performed better. Overall, emerging market stock markets only tend to decline in the late rate hike cycle (which may reflect more of the weakening of the economy), and cutting interest rates against the trend will bring more support to domestic stock markets.</b></p><p><b>(4) In the bond market, in the process of interest rate cuts against the trend, it is not clear that the yield is affected by the United States, and the downward trend often appears. Domestic bond market interest rates are mostly determined by the orientation of domestic monetary policy, and debt bulls are not unexpected.</b></p><p><b>(5) Going back to the domestic trend this year, the Federal Reserve's rate hike is indeed an external constraint, but there is no need to overemphasize its constraint. If the effect of stabilizing growth is not ideal, inflationary pressure is controllable, and there is still room for easing monetary policy. In this process, the impact of the bond market and the stock market should not be overestimated, and the trend of both may depend more on the market's understanding of domestic policies.</b></p><p>Risk warning: Economic growth is not up to expectations, and policy withdrawal exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/512999\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK1575":"同股不同权","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK1587":"次新股","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","BK1539":"汽车股","02015":"理想汽车-W","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/512999","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2216451963","content_text":"核心观点美国加息，新兴市场是否只能被动跟随？回顾历史，选择逆势降息的例子并不罕见，且政策分化并不一定带来股债的额外压力。1999年美国加息周期：巴西放松汇率限制，日本延续低利率环境。相对其他新兴市场，巴西货币表现更弱，但股市在短期冲击后较快修复。2004年美国加息周期：初期韩国、南非小幅降息，后期巴西趋势性降息。韩国、巴西和南非的货币和股市均未跑输新兴市场整体，甚至有更强表现。南非和韩国的债市也并不差。2015年美国加息周期：多国政策周期与美错位，新兴市场整体保持宽松。金砖多国汇率承压，但股市韧性。利率整体走低，与美债分化。有哪些启示？（1）逆势降息的案例并非罕见，近几轮美国加息周期中，均有代表型新兴经济体走上政策分化的道路，来应对国内经济下行压力，“以我为主”并非我国独创。（2）美国加息周期中，新兴市场货币整体并不算差，但逆势降息的国家货币走势相对较弱，甚至有贬值压力。选择逆势降息的一个主要成本或风险，可能来自汇率的压力。（3）美国加息周期启动初期，新兴市场股市容易出现短期调整，但很快恢复，逆势降息国家并未出现额外压力，甚至表现更好。整体看，新兴市场股市只在加息周期晚期趋势性下跌（可能更多反应经济的走弱），逆势降息反而会给本国股市带来更多支撑。（4）债市方面，逆势降息过程中，收益率受美国影响并不明确，下行趋势经常出现。国内债市利率多由本国货币政策的取向决定，债牛并非不可期待。（5）回到国内今年的走势，美联储加息确实是外部约束，但也不必过分强调其制约，如若稳增长效果不理想，通胀压力可控，货币政策仍有宽松空间，这一过程中，债市和股市的冲击不宜高估，二者走势或更取决于市场对国内政策的理解。正文 2022年国内存在稳增长压力，需要货币政策宽松予以配合。在美联储加息的背景下，一般认为新兴市场面临着资本外流压力，很难实施宽松货币政策，只能被动跟随。今年国内宽松的空间到底有多大，是市场关心的问题。美联储紧缩系列第二篇，我们回顾历史上几次美国加息周期中，其他新兴市场国家逆势降息的例子，观察效果到底如何。一、1999年美国加息周期：巴西大幅宽松巴西放松汇率限制，日本延续低利率环境。代表性国家中，巴西和日本明确选择进入降息周期。此前，巴西进行金融自由化改革，为吸引外资流入，将基准利率提高到惊人的43%，此后，在东南亚金融危机、国际资本流动和巴西国内债务危机下，央行放弃超高利率货币政策，1999年1月，中央银行放弃了自1995年3月起实行的鼓励在规定范围内小幅度货币贬值的汇率浮动区间机制，允许雷亚尔兑美元自由浮动，开启降息宽松以应对危机，在此期间迅速降息至15.25%。一个有意思的点是，在美国加息开始前，巴西已开始降息周期，有类似提前应对的情况。20世纪90年代以来日本始终面临低通胀、低增长的经济环境。日本方面，央行在全球范围内率先采取较为激进的零利率政策。这一时期，日本政策利率从0.25%微降至0。逆势降息下，相对其他新兴市场，巴西货币表现更弱，但股市在短期冲击后较快修复。美联储加息周期中，新兴市场肯定存在负面的汇率、零利率、股市等冲击，相对新兴市场整体的走势，一定程度上可以评估巴西逆势降息的额外影响。汇率方面，联储本轮加息周期中，新兴市场货币整体走势较强，并未出现趋势性贬值情况。但是，巴西雷亚尔走势整体偏弱，在美国加息初期明显贬值，后期有所修复。相比而言，巴西股市韧性更足。加息初期，新兴市场和巴西股市均出现短期回调，巴西股市回调幅度更大，但随后均收复失地回归趋势，巴西股市反弹幅度更大。二、2004年美国加息周期：南非、韩国短暂性降息初期韩国、南非小幅降息，后期巴西趋势性降息。本轮美国加息的早期，南非和韩国均选择了两次小幅降息进行试探，但持续时间并不长。南非在2004年-2005年，基准利率从8%降至7%。韩国由于经济走势低迷，消费不振，大宗商品价格上涨带来GDP增长压力，而CPI保持温和，同样在2004-2005年降息50个bp至3.25%。2006年两国相继结束降息操作，转而开始加息。巴西情况恰好相反，2004年巴西顺应美国加息周期，连续调高基准利率。2005年底，为缓解政府债务压力，应对经济持续下行，巴西开始连续降息，基准利率从20%降至15%。逆势降息阶段，韩国、巴西和南非的货币和股市均未跑输新兴市场整体，甚至有更强表现。2004年美国加息周期中，新兴市场货币和股市未出现趋势性下行趋势，而是整体向上，甚至大规模的调整都没有看到。初期选择逆势降息的韩国和南非，货币走势不输新兴市场整体，倒是后期降息时南非兰特反而大幅走低。后期降息的巴西雷亚尔也出现了止跌修复的行情，在其之前的加息过程中，汇率走势反而很差。股市也有类似的情况出现，整个加息周期中，三国股市整体均跑赢新兴市场整体。南非和韩国在逆势降息阶段，国债表现并不差。另一个大家更为关心的话题，则是债市如何表现。以南非和韩国为例，二者均在美国加息的前半段进行逆势操作。这一阶段，首先美债整体较为平稳，加息落地后大幅上冲不明显。其次，韩国和南非国债收益率均明显下行，幅度均在100个bp以上。因此，国债的走势这个阶段仍整体由国内货币政策决定。三、2015年美国加息周期：金砖国家集体宽松多国周期发生错位，新兴市场整体保持宽松。由于经济增长乏力和通胀持续下行，且新兴市场国家利率处在相对高位，尽管美联储进入加息周期，但新兴市场国家多数仍选择继续降息以刺激经济。代表性的金砖多国均在美国加息最激进的2017-2018年期间持续降息。巴西在2015年底至2018年初，基准利率从14.25%降至6%左右；俄罗斯在2016年中至2018年中，基准利率从11%降至7%左右；印度在2015年底至2018年中，基准利率6.5%降至6%。此外，韩国、澳大利亚等国家也保持利率在低位，并未跟随美国加息。汇率承压，股市韧性。与两轮相同的一点是，新兴市场货币整体仍趋于上行，美国加息并没有带来系统性的贬值压力。但是，几个逆势降息的国家，汇率走势并不算理想。俄罗斯在2016年降息初期阶段，卢布升值幅度明显高于新兴市场整体，但好景不长，随后明显跑输。巴西雷亚尔同样在一开始大幅升值，但在降息开启后，贬值压力陡增。印度的情况类似，整个区间卢比走势都明显弱于整体。股市则是另一番情景，整体看三国指数均跑赢新兴市场整体。利率整体走低，与美债分化。除了印度国债利率从2017年开始走高外，其余时间三国的国债利率整体以下行为主，且与美债利率的走势一致性不高。美债利率自2016年中开始震荡上行，但随后一年半巴西和俄罗斯债券收益率仍趋势性下行，印度上行幅度也不算高。四、启示：逆势降息并不罕见，股债的额外冲击不必高估对此前几段新兴市场逆势降息的情况进行梳理，我们大致有以下一些启示：（1）逆势降息的案例并非罕见，近几轮美国加息周期中，均有代表型新兴经济体走上政策分化的道路，来应对国内经济下行压力，“以我为主”并非我国独创。（2）美国加息周期中，新兴市场货币整体并不算差，但逆势降息的国家货币走势相对较弱，甚至有贬值压力。选择逆势降息的一个主要成本或风险，可能来自汇率的压力。（3）美国加息周期启动初期，新兴市场股市容易出现短期调整，但很快恢复，逆势降息国家并未出现额外压力，甚至表现更好。整体看，新兴市场股市只在加息周期晚期趋势性下跌（可能更多反应经济的走弱），逆势降息反而会给本国股市带来更多支撑。（4）债市方面，逆势降息过程中，收益率受美国影响并不明确，下行趋势经常出现。国内债市利率多由本国货币政策的取向决定，债牛并非不可期待。（5）回到国内今年的走势，美联储加息确实是外部约束，但也不必过分强调其制约，如若稳增长效果不理想，通胀压力可控，货币政策仍有宽松空间，这一过程中，债市和股市的冲击不宜高估，二者走势或更取决于市场对国内政策的理解。风险提示：经济增长不达预期，政策退出超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"ZTmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"TLT":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"02015":0.78,"SPY":0.9,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"BND":0.9,"IEI":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"TNmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"ZBmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097920491,"gmtCreate":1645319448109,"gmtModify":1676534017814,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097920491","repostId":"1198166588","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198166588","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645314743,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198166588?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-20 07:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Are Hong Kong stocks worthy of our gentle treatment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198166588","media":"兴证资管","summary":"经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。近日，兴证资管","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is near or below 1), Hong Kong stocks will rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound vary. With the valuation of Hong Kong stocks falling to historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks actually doesn't make much sense for investment. Recently, the Wang Delun team of Industrial Securities Asset Management issued a document pointing out that as a rare \"depression\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks are worth investors spending more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Wang Delun said that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. On the contrary, historical experience shows that if the PB of Hong Kong stocks is near or below 1, it will rebound later, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound are different.</p><p><b>The original text is as follows:</b></p><p>If you want to select the \"worst\" stock market in the world in 2021, Hong Kong stocks may have a \"place\". For the whole year of 2021, the Hang Seng Index fell 15%, not performing as well as A-shares, and far worse than major stock indexes such as U.S. stocks and Europe. Looking further at the performance of major sectors in Hong Kong stocks, the decline of some sectors can also be described as \"unparalleled\". For example, the technology sector of Hong Kong stocks fell by as much as 33%, the information technology and healthcare sectors fell by 32% and 28% respectively, and other sectors such as real estate construction and must-have consumption also fell by more than 10%. The continuous decline in the past year has filled the Hong Kong stock market with pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e16de25a7662ff656796effd5cba8f6\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After nearly a year of drastic adjustments, how should we view Hong Kong stocks at the current point in time?<b>Judging from the micro-survey of some institutions, pessimism still dominates.</b>A brief summary of the \"reasons\" for continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks includes arguments such as \"the Federal Reserve rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the upward trend of the 10Y US Treasury yields will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", and there are also views that \"Hong Kong stocks will be dragged down the'deep sea 'because of the collapse of the US stock market.\" Are these \"reasons\" to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks really valid? In this regard, we actually don't have to deeply correct the logical chain inside, we only need to simply trace back the historical data to get a glimpse.</p><p>\"The rate hike of the Federal Reserve will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this argument does not hold true from historical data. We see,<b>During the rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve from 2004 to 2006, Hong Kong stocks soared all the way. Similarly, from 2016 to 2017, in the four rate hike before and after the Federal Reserve, Hong Kong stocks also rose all the way. Judging from experience, the Federal Reserve's rate hike seems to be the logic of being bullish rather than bearish on Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33521bdfab4f65c554ac337546e54bf\" tg-width=\"1408\" tg-height=\"854\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"The upward trend of US Treasury yields in 10Y will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this logic is not supported by historical data.</b>A simple comparison of the trends of US Treasury yields and Hong Kong stocks in 10Y shows that the latter has risen sharply many times during the sharp rise of the former.<b>Typically, 2007, the second half of 2009, the second half of 2012 to 2013, the second quarter of 2015, the fourth quarter of 2016, and the first quarter of 2020 to 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfd6e0f890cf712b65edfd5282732be\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The argument that \"the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is still not valid.</b>We may be accustomed to judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of exchange rate. But in fact, the relationship between them is very unstable. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, while the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Similarly, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, the RMB exchange rate weakened and Hong Kong stocks rose, continuing to \"coexist\". On the contrary, we can also see that,<b>Since the second half of 2020, the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating all the way, while Hong Kong stocks have \"risen first and then fallen\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fac960f3949470544e6418cc733fd9\" tg-width=\"1452\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the upward trend of the 10Y US Treasury yields, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate cannot be the core logical support for judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks, especially the weakening of Hong Kong stocks. Like them,<b>U.S. stocks cannot be simply used to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</b>A brief review of the performance of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks in the past 10 years shows that it is very easy to find that they frequently diverge and diverge.<b>When U.S. stocks rise, Hong Kong stocks may not necessarily rise; When U.S. stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks often don't \"follow\".</b>Of course, if it is determined that the U.S. stock market is going to collapse, then Hong Kong stocks will generally feel more uncomfortable. But the premise is, will the US stock market collapse? In the past 10 years, being bearish on U.S. stocks and being bearish on domestic housing prices have always been the two easiest and most frequently \"slapped in the face\" views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a931c95ea1e4226c697f2f7e0e869f\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A simple review of historical data can intuitively find that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. We follow the method of historical induction and summary, instead of discussing specific logic,<b>Simply review the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of Hong Kong stock valuation. Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is around or below 1), Hong Kong stocks will usher in a rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound vary.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706504053c2b9738cc7ba401565068b3\" tg-width=\"1428\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Historical experience tells us that when the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has fallen to historical lows, it actually doesn't make much sense for investment to continue to be short on Hong Kong stocks.</b>As a rare \"depression\" in the world at present, Hong Kong stocks are worth spending more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, as the world's major stock indexes continue to adjust, Hong Kong stocks have risen \"against the trend\", which is enough to deserve our attention and seriousness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f867862f845af52bc191d2a119d08a\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Investment is risky, so decision-making needs to be cautious. The views expressed in this article only represent the current judgment of the macro market, which may be adjusted with changes in the market environment, and do not constitute any relevant investment suggestions and forecasts for any information screen audience.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645314773710","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are Hong Kong stocks worthy of our gentle treatment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre Hong Kong stocks worthy of our gentle treatment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">兴证资管</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-20 07:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is near or below 1), Hong Kong stocks will rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound vary. With the valuation of Hong Kong stocks falling to historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks actually doesn't make much sense for investment. Recently, the Wang Delun team of Industrial Securities Asset Management issued a document pointing out that as a rare \"depression\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks are worth investors spending more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Wang Delun said that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. On the contrary, historical experience shows that if the PB of Hong Kong stocks is near or below 1, it will rebound later, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound are different.</p><p><b>The original text is as follows:</b></p><p>If you want to select the \"worst\" stock market in the world in 2021, Hong Kong stocks may have a \"place\". For the whole year of 2021, the Hang Seng Index fell 15%, not performing as well as A-shares, and far worse than major stock indexes such as U.S. stocks and Europe. Looking further at the performance of major sectors in Hong Kong stocks, the decline of some sectors can also be described as \"unparalleled\". For example, the technology sector of Hong Kong stocks fell by as much as 33%, the information technology and healthcare sectors fell by 32% and 28% respectively, and other sectors such as real estate construction and must-have consumption also fell by more than 10%. The continuous decline in the past year has filled the Hong Kong stock market with pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e16de25a7662ff656796effd5cba8f6\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After nearly a year of drastic adjustments, how should we view Hong Kong stocks at the current point in time?<b>Judging from the micro-survey of some institutions, pessimism still dominates.</b>A brief summary of the \"reasons\" for continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks includes arguments such as \"the Federal Reserve rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the upward trend of the 10Y US Treasury yields will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", and there are also views that \"Hong Kong stocks will be dragged down the'deep sea 'because of the collapse of the US stock market.\" Are these \"reasons\" to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks really valid? In this regard, we actually don't have to deeply correct the logical chain inside, we only need to simply trace back the historical data to get a glimpse.</p><p>\"The rate hike of the Federal Reserve will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this argument does not hold true from historical data. We see,<b>During the rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve from 2004 to 2006, Hong Kong stocks soared all the way. Similarly, from 2016 to 2017, in the four rate hike before and after the Federal Reserve, Hong Kong stocks also rose all the way. Judging from experience, the Federal Reserve's rate hike seems to be the logic of being bullish rather than bearish on Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33521bdfab4f65c554ac337546e54bf\" tg-width=\"1408\" tg-height=\"854\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"The upward trend of US Treasury yields in 10Y will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", this logic is not supported by historical data.</b>A simple comparison of the trends of US Treasury yields and Hong Kong stocks in 10Y shows that the latter has risen sharply many times during the sharp rise of the former.<b>Typically, 2007, the second half of 2009, the second half of 2012 to 2013, the second quarter of 2015, the fourth quarter of 2016, and the first quarter of 2020 to 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfd6e0f890cf712b65edfd5282732be\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The argument that \"the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is still not valid.</b>We may be accustomed to judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of exchange rate. But in fact, the relationship between them is very unstable. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, while the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Similarly, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, the RMB exchange rate weakened and Hong Kong stocks rose, continuing to \"coexist\". On the contrary, we can also see that,<b>Since the second half of 2020, the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating all the way, while Hong Kong stocks have \"risen first and then fallen\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fac960f3949470544e6418cc733fd9\" tg-width=\"1452\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the upward trend of the 10Y US Treasury yields, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate cannot be the core logical support for judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks, especially the weakening of Hong Kong stocks. Like them,<b>U.S. stocks cannot be simply used to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</b>A brief review of the performance of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks in the past 10 years shows that it is very easy to find that they frequently diverge and diverge.<b>When U.S. stocks rise, Hong Kong stocks may not necessarily rise; When U.S. stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks often don't \"follow\".</b>Of course, if it is determined that the U.S. stock market is going to collapse, then Hong Kong stocks will generally feel more uncomfortable. But the premise is, will the US stock market collapse? In the past 10 years, being bearish on U.S. stocks and being bearish on domestic housing prices have always been the two easiest and most frequently \"slapped in the face\" views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a931c95ea1e4226c697f2f7e0e869f\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A simple review of historical data can intuitively find that the current common logic of bearish Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. We follow the method of historical induction and summary, instead of discussing specific logic,<b>Simply review the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of Hong Kong stock valuation. Experience shows that after the valuation falls to a historical low (PB is around or below 1), Hong Kong stocks will usher in a rebound next, although the time and magnitude of each round of rebound vary.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706504053c2b9738cc7ba401565068b3\" tg-width=\"1428\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Historical experience tells us that when the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has fallen to historical lows, it actually doesn't make much sense for investment to continue to be short on Hong Kong stocks.</b>As a rare \"depression\" in the world at present, Hong Kong stocks are worth spending more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, as the world's major stock indexes continue to adjust, Hong Kong stocks have risen \"against the trend\", which is enough to deserve our attention and seriousness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f867862f845af52bc191d2a119d08a\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Investment is risky, so decision-making needs to be cautious. The views expressed in this article only represent the current judgment of the macro market, which may be adjusted with changes in the market environment, and do not constitute any relevant investment suggestions and forecasts for any information screen audience.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652344\">兴证资管</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652344","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198166588","content_text":"经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。近日，兴证资管王德伦团队发文指出，作为目前全球少有的“洼地”，港股2022年，值得投资者花更多时间研究、挖掘投资机会。王德伦表示，当前常见的看空港股逻辑，都没有历史数据的支持。反而是，历史经验显示，港股PB在1附近或以下，随后都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。原文如下：如果要评选2021年全球“最惨”的股票市场，港股可能有“一席之地”。2021年全年，恒生指数大跌15%，表现不及A股，并远差于美股及欧洲等主要股指。进一步看港股中主要板块的表现，部分板块的跌幅也可谓“一骑绝尘”。比如，港股科技板块跌幅高达33%，信息技术、医疗保健板块跌幅分别达到32%、28%，其他的如地产建筑、必选消费等板块跌幅也超过10%。近1年的跌跌不休，使港股市场充斥着悲观情绪。经历了近1年的剧烈调整后，站在当前时点，我们应该怎么看待港股？从部分机构的微观调研情况来看，悲观情绪依然占据主导。简单汇总继续看空港股的“理由”，既有“美联储加息会打压港股”、“10Y美债利率上行会打压港股”、“人民币汇率趋于贬值会打压港股”等论调，也有观点提出“港股会因为美股崩盘而被拖下‘深海’”。这些看空港股的“理由”，是否真的成立？对此，我们实际上不必深纠里面的逻辑链条，只需要简单回溯历史数据，便能一窥究竟。“美联储加息会打压港股”，这一论调，从历史数据来看，并不成立。我们看到，2004年至2006年的美联储加息周期中，港股一路大涨。同样的，2016年至2017年，美联储前后4次加息中，港股也一路上涨。总结经验来看，美联储加息，似乎可以成为看多、而非看空港股的逻辑。“10Y美债利率上行会打压港股”，这一逻辑，也没有历史数据的支持。简单比较10Y美债利率和港股的走势，可以发现，后者多次在前者大幅上行期间，一路大涨。典型的有，2007年、2009年下半年、2012年下半年至2013年、2015年2季度、2016年4季度，以及2020年至2021年1季度。“人民币汇率趋于贬值会打压港股”，这一论调，依然不成立。我们可能习惯于从汇率角度，去判断港股走势。但实际上，它们之间的关系，非常不稳定。比如，2013年4季度至2015年2季度，人民币汇率持续走弱的同时，港股出现大幅上涨。同样的，2016年2季度至2017年2季度，人民币汇率走弱和港股上涨，持续“共存”。相反，我们也可以看到，2020年下半年至今，人民币汇率一路升值，而港股“先涨后跌”。美联储加息、10Y美债利率上行、人民币汇率贬值，都无法成为判断港股走势、尤其是判定港股将走弱的核心逻辑支撑。与它们一样，美股，也不能简单用于判断港股的走势。简单回顾过去10年港股和美股的表现，能非常容易地发现，它们频繁分化、背离。美股涨的时候，港股不一定涨；美股跌的时候，港股很多时候也不会“跟”。当然，如果认定美股要崩盘，那港股一般会比较难受。但前提是，美股会崩盘吗？过去10年，看空美股和看空国内房价，一直是最容易、最高频被“打脸”的两个观点。简单回顾历史数据，就能直观地发现，当前常见的看空港股的逻辑，都没有历史数据的支持。我们沿用历史归纳总结的方法，不讨论具体逻辑，简单从港股估值角度出发，回顾港股走势。经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。历史经验告诉了我们，在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。作为目前全球少有的“洼地”，港股2022年，值得我们花更多时间研究、挖掘投资机会。2022年初至今，全球主要股指持续调整之际，港股“逆势”上涨，已经足够值得我们重视和认真对待。风险提示：投资有风险，决策需谨慎。本文所表达观点仅代表对宏观市场的当期判断，可能随市场环境变化而产生调整，不构成任何信息屏受众群体的任何相关投资建议与预测。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094487825,"gmtCreate":1645222369791,"gmtModify":1676534009352,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094487825","repostId":"1124494547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124494547","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645194592,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124494547?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-18 22:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | The Nasdaq rose slightly, and the Russian-Ukrainian border began to evacuate people","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124494547","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨23.00点，涨幅0.17%，报13739.72点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On February 18 (Friday), the Dow Jones Index opened down 63.71 points, or 0.19%, to 34,248.32 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 1.83 points, or 0.04%, to 4382.09 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 23.00 points, or 0.17%, to 13,739.72 points. On the news,<b>The \"Republic of Luhansk\" in eastern Ukraine ordered the evacuation of people.</b>French President Emmanuel Macron called for an end to the shelling of the Donbas region and an urgent easing of tensions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0d41c3b2799f3318cfad7ee387872c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Streaming media company Roku plunged 26%, the largest intraday decline since the company's U.S. IPO. The financial report showed that its Q4 revenue and Q1 guidance were both miss the market expectation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01c8daac1ec4346b29a9d8bbdb56494\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>It fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session. The company said that its chip foundry business plans to establish an automotive department.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DKNG\">DraftKings</a>It fell more than 14%, and the net loss in Q4 expanded to US $326 million compared with the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHAK\">Shake Shack</a>Fell more than 8%. Losses widened in the fourth quarter, and the company said it was still unsure when it would fully recover.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DD\">DuPont</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CE\">Celanese</a>Up 2.8%, DuPont divested most of its mobility and materials division to Celanese for $11 billion.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Down 9.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>, Weibo fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell more than 2%, and the Hong Kong stocks of both companies were included in the Hang Seng Technology Index.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | The Nasdaq rose slightly, and the Russian-Ukrainian border began to evacuate people</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | The Nasdaq rose slightly, and the Russian-Ukrainian border began to evacuate people\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-18 22:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On February 18 (Friday), the Dow Jones Index opened down 63.71 points, or 0.19%, to 34,248.32 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 1.83 points, or 0.04%, to 4382.09 points; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 23.00 points, or 0.17%, to 13,739.72 points. On the news,<b>The \"Republic of Luhansk\" in eastern Ukraine ordered the evacuation of people.</b>French President Emmanuel Macron called for an end to the shelling of the Donbas region and an urgent easing of tensions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0d41c3b2799f3318cfad7ee387872c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Streaming media company Roku plunged 26%, the largest intraday decline since the company's U.S. IPO. The financial report showed that its Q4 revenue and Q1 guidance were both miss the market expectation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01c8daac1ec4346b29a9d8bbdb56494\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>It fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session. The company said that its chip foundry business plans to establish an automotive department.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DKNG\">DraftKings</a>It fell more than 14%, and the net loss in Q4 expanded to US $326 million compared with the same period last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHAK\">Shake Shack</a>Fell more than 8%. Losses widened in the fourth quarter, and the company said it was still unsure when it would fully recover.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DD\">DuPont</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CE\">Celanese</a>Up 2.8%, DuPont divested most of its mobility and materials division to Celanese for $11 billion.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Down 9.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>, Weibo fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell more than 2%, and the Hong Kong stocks of both companies were included in the Hang Seng Technology Index.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124494547","content_text":"2月18日（周五），道琼斯指数开盘下跌63.71点，跌幅0.19%，报34248.32点；标普500指数开盘上涨1.83点，涨幅0.04%，报4382.09点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨23.00点，涨幅0.17%，报13739.72点。消息面上，乌东地区的“卢甘斯克共和国”下令疏散民众。法国总统马克龙呼吁结束对顿巴斯地区的炮击，紧急缓和紧张局势。流媒体公司Roku重挫26%，创该公司美国IPO以来最大盘中跌幅，财报显示其Q4营收及Q1指引均不及市场预期。英特尔盘初跌超3%，该公司称芯片代工业务拟成立汽车部门。DraftKings跌超14%，Q4净亏损较上年同期扩大至3.26亿美元。Shake Shack跌超8%。第四季度亏损扩大，公司表示仍不确定什么时候全面复苏。杜邦涨超5%，塞拉尼斯涨2.8%，杜邦以110亿美元的价格将移动和材料部门的大部分业务剥离给塞拉尼斯。热门中概股普遍走低，哔哩哔哩跌超10%，知乎跌9.54%，拼多多跌超8%，腾讯音乐、微博跌超6%，京东、阿里巴巴跌超5%。小鹏汽车跌超1%，理想汽车跌超2%，两家公司的港股均被纳入恒生科技指数。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092742269,"gmtCreate":1644747154512,"gmtModify":1676533958567,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092742269","repostId":"2211952482","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2211952482","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200"},"pubTimestamp":1644712390,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2211952482?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-13 08:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Soros's positions are exposed! Short Nasdaq funds and reduce holdings of technology stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2211952482","media":"中国基金报","summary":"中国基金报记者 姚波索罗斯基金管理公司四季度豪掷百亿加仓对标特斯拉的美国电动皮卡公司，开仓做空跟踪纳指100的基金，大举砍仓了数只大型科技股。他购入了景顺旗下的纳斯达克100指数基金QQQ的做空期权，表明了看空科技股的立场。该基金主要持仓包括苹果、微软、亚马逊及特斯拉、英伟达等大型科技股。与做空纳指相应，索罗斯重仓的科技股均有不同程度减持。公司的大部分资产属于由索罗斯成立的基金会，而非索罗斯家族。","content":"<p><div>In the fourth quarter, Soros Fund Management spent tens of billions to increase its position against Tesla's American electric pickup company, opened short positions in funds tracking the Nasdaq 100, and aggressively cut positions in several large technology stocks. The latest position disclosure shows that Soros's biggest move in the fourth quarter was to increase Tesla's \"mysterious enemy\" Rivian, an electric vehicle invested by Amazon and Ford Motor. The company is famous for its electric pickup trucks. The company soared 53% on its first day of listing in November last year, and its market value once exceeded $100 billion. The Soros team must be pretty bullish...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Soros's positions are exposed! Short Nasdaq funds and reduce holdings of technology stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoros's positions are exposed! Short Nasdaq funds and reduce holdings of technology stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/6\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-13 08:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>In the fourth quarter, Soros Fund Management spent tens of billions to increase its position against Tesla's American electric pickup company, opened short positions in funds tracking the Nasdaq 100, and aggressively cut positions in several large technology stocks. The latest position disclosure shows that Soros's biggest move in the fourth quarter was to increase Tesla's \"mysterious enemy\" Rivian, an electric vehicle invested by Amazon and Ford Motor. The company is famous for its electric pickup trucks. The company soared 53% on its first day of listing in November last year, and its market value once exceeded $100 billion. The Soros team must be pretty bullish...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8ed91990cf4edda9c77a001970a129","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","03086":"华夏纳指","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2211952482","content_text":"索罗斯基金管理公司(Soros Fund Management)四季度豪掷百亿加仓对标特斯拉的美国电动皮卡公司，开仓做空跟踪纳指100的基金，大举砍仓了数只大型科技股。最新持仓披露显示，四季度索罗斯最大动作是加码了特斯拉的“神秘死敌”Rivian，一家由亚马逊和福特汽车参与投资的电动汽车，公司以旗下的电动皮卡而闻名。该公司去年11月上市首日飙涨53%，市值一度超过千亿美元。索罗斯团队一定是相当看好电动皮卡，当季新买入持仓20亿美元（合127亿元人民币），占投资组合近3成规模，列居第一大重仓股。不过，今年以来成长股普跌，电动车龙头特斯拉被杀估值，Rivian也不例外，其股价较发行价已经跌去25%，估值也已经掉到530亿美元。另外值得注意的就是索罗斯买入的做空期权。他购入了景顺旗下的纳斯达克100指数基金QQQ的做空期权，表明了看空科技股的立场。该基金主要持仓包括苹果、微软、亚马逊及特斯拉、英伟达等大型科技股。索罗斯四季度做空71万份QQQ，做空额达到2.8亿美元，成功押准了今年的趋势，QQQ在2022年11月创下新高后，一路走低，开年下跌幅度达到13%。索罗斯基金四季度增仓榜 减仓科技股躲过大跌去年年底前，美联储的口风还没有转向，市场也没有预料到高通胀带来的快速加息，索罗斯团队却能够提前预判出方向。与做空纳指相应，索罗斯重仓的科技股均有不同程度减持。持仓1%及以上的个股中，谷歌减仓幅度最大，其次就是被微软官宣收购的游戏公司暴雪，第三就是亚马逊，三股票的减仓幅度分别达到了38%、27%和19%。2022年涨跌分别为-7.30%、22.50%及-8.05%。即便是选择减仓，也不得不夸索罗斯团队挑科技股的眼光不错。相较从高点大跌40%的META(前脸书），谷歌、亚马逊都是去年业绩整体表现不错的大型科技股，股价表现优于市场。选择减仓动视暴雪可能有点失误，这家制作出《魔兽争霸》等经典游戏的公司在今年1月获得微软青睐，收购消息刺激了股价大幅上涨。1月并购消息付出后，暴雪一度跳涨25%索罗斯基金四季度减仓榜目前，这位亿万富翁慈善家的投资公司管理着超过280亿美元的资产，包括二级市场和私募股权。公司的大部分资产属于由索罗斯成立的基金会，而非索罗斯家族。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，索罗斯的个人财富估计为75亿美元。索罗斯基金前十大重仓","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0,"TQQQ":0,"RIVN":0,"QQQ":0,".IXIC":0,"SQQQ":0,"QNETCN":0,"TTTN":0,"03086":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9096084133,"gmtCreate":1644266735511,"gmtModify":1676533905323,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"L","listText":"L","text":"L","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096084133","repostId":"1147935922","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147935922","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644244261,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147935922?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-07 22:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening: Peloton rose more than 28%, Alibaba fell 5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147935922","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月7日，美股小幅高开，道指涨0.13%，纳指涨0.15%，标普500指数涨0.19%。区块链概念股走强，Riot Blockchain涨逾6%，Marathon Digital、嘉楠科技涨超5%。P","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On February 7, U.S. stocks opened slightly higher, with the Dow up 0.13%, the Nasdaq up 0.15%, and the S&P 500 up 0.19%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dc46d8ffaea33d4d11723d4718bde3d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Blockchain concept stocks strengthened, Riot Blockchain rose more than 6%, Marathon Digital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>Up more than 5%.</p><p>Peloton U.S. stocks rose more than 28%, rumored<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Interested in acquiring Peloton, the bid is being evaluated.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 5%, and it was reported that Alibaba filed documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to register 1 billion previously unregistered ADSs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The interpretation believes that this means that SoftBank Group may intend to sell part of its shareholding.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSN\">Tyson Foods</a>Up 10%, Q1 sales were US $12.933 billion, and the performance guidance for fiscal year 2022 was better than market expectations.</p><p>Cerence fell more than 36%, and its Q2 revenue and fiscal year 2022 performance guidance were lower than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: Peloton rose more than 28%, Alibaba fell 5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: Peloton rose more than 28%, Alibaba fell 5%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-07 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On February 7, U.S. stocks opened slightly higher, with the Dow up 0.13%, the Nasdaq up 0.15%, and the S&P 500 up 0.19%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dc46d8ffaea33d4d11723d4718bde3d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Blockchain concept stocks strengthened, Riot Blockchain rose more than 6%, Marathon Digital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">Canaan Technology</a>Up more than 5%.</p><p>Peloton U.S. stocks rose more than 28%, rumored<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Interested in acquiring Peloton, the bid is being evaluated.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 5%, and it was reported that Alibaba filed documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to register 1 billion previously unregistered ADSs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The interpretation believes that this means that SoftBank Group may intend to sell part of its shareholding.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSN\">Tyson Foods</a>Up 10%, Q1 sales were US $12.933 billion, and the performance guidance for fiscal year 2022 was better than market expectations.</p><p>Cerence fell more than 36%, and its Q2 revenue and fiscal year 2022 performance guidance were lower than market expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147935922","content_text":"2月7日，美股小幅高开，道指涨0.13%，纳指涨0.15%，标普500指数涨0.19%。区块链概念股走强，Riot Blockchain涨逾6%，Marathon Digital、嘉楠科技涨超5%。Peloton美股涨超28%，传亚马逊和耐克有意收购Peloton，正评估出价。阿里巴巴跌5%，报道称阿里巴巴向美国证监会提交文件，登记了10亿份之前未登记的ADS。花旗解读认为，这意味着软银集团可能打算出售部分持股。泰森食品涨10%，Q1销售额129.33亿美元，2022财年业绩指引好于市场预期。Cerence跌超36%，Q2营收及2022财年业绩指引低于市场预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036454184,"gmtCreate":1647205662115,"gmtModify":1676534201749,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yed","listText":"Yed","text":"Yed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036454184","repostId":"2219274240","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036455260,"gmtCreate":1647205485262,"gmtModify":1676534201717,"author":{"id":"3583111190875685","authorId":"3583111190875685","name":"lcGoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea3d27fab7696dea29861dd0ec2eeec9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583111190875685","idStr":"3583111190875685"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036455260","repostId":"2219740228","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2219740228","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647161733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2219740228?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-13 16:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Next week's blockbuster agenda: Will the Fed rate hike?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2219740228","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：“超级央行周”拉开大幕，由美联储领衔，英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。数据方面，中国将公布70城房价月度报告，2月规模以上工业增加值、城镇固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额、房地","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: \"Super Central Bank Week\" has opened, led by the Federal Reserve. Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions. In terms of data, China will publish monthly housing prices in 70 cities, including industrial added value above designated size, urban fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods and real estate development investment in February.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dbecb5c988e5f6825a71fb446f71212\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1130\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>A list of major financial events in the week from March 14th to March 18th, the following is Beijing time:</p><p><b>Next week, \"Super Central Bank Week\" kicks off.</b>Led by the Federal Reserve, Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>Specifically, on March 17 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce interest rate decisions, policy statements and economic expectations, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference afterwards.</p><p><b>The United States will officially start the rate hike cycle,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that he would recommend a 25 basis point rate hike at the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 15-16. According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the entire financial market may continue to fluctuate violently due to factors such as the uncertain situation in Ukraine, increased European and American sanctions against Russia, and soaring commodity prices. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will be cautious about rate hike. There may not be rate hike at every FOMC meeting this year, and there may not be a single 50 basis point rate hike this year. In addition, economists also expect the Fed dot plot to show four to five rate hike this year.</p><p><b>For the Bank of England,</b>As energy prices hit UK markets, pound overnight index swaps show money markets are betting that the Bank of England will rate hike by more than 100 basis points by June. This implies that there will be two 25 basis point rate hike actions and one 50 basis point action, spread over the next three meetings, and also means that the Bank of England may conduct its third consecutive rate hike next week.</p><p><b>Data terms,</b>Next week, the National Bureau of Statistics will release a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. China will announce the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, urban fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, real estate development investment and sales in February. The United States will announce more indicators that the market is concerned about, including PPI, the total number of new housing starts and building permits, and the number of weekly initial jobless claims. Eurozone February CPI and other data will also be released.</p><p><b>In terms of new opportunities,</b>There will be 7 new shares available for subscription next week. Among them, 1 is a new stock on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 4 are new stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 2 are on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition, Jusailong plans to list on the Growth Enterprise Market on March 14, with the stock code 301131. Silinger is expected to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on the same day.</p><p><b>Funds,</b>The issuance reached a \"freezing point\", and the number of issuances decreased significantly in the first two weeks. It is expected that 17 new funds will be launched (combined shares). Among them, there are 10 closed-end funds, 2 partial stock hybrid funds and 2 passive index funds, 1 hybrid bond fund (secondary) and ordinary stock funds, and 1 medium and long-term pure debt fund.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>Next week, many A-share companies such as Foster, China Merchants Bank, Oriental Fortune, Ping An, Shede Liquor, Watson Bio, and Wanhua Chemical will release financial reports; Hong Kong stock financial reports focus on Li Ning and ZTO.</p><p><b>Other aspects</b>, continue to pay attention to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the 12th local time, Podolyak, a member of the Ukrainian delegation in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the chief adviser of the Ukrainian President's Office, said in an interview that after the third round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the two sides conducted video A series of communications were carried out and a working group was established.</p><p>In addition, the Central Bank of Russia extended the stock market closure to March 18. The Central Bank of Russia said on its official website that it will announce later whether to resume trading from March 21.</p><p>Economic data</p><p><ul><li>On Monday (March 14), France's January trade balance.</li><li>On Tuesday (March 15), China's urban survey unemployment rate in February, China's total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February year-on-year, China's urban fixed asset investment from January to February year-on-year, China's industrial added value above designated size from January to February year-on-year, China's national real estate development investment from January to February; U.S. February PPI and core PPI year-on-year, U.S. March New York Fed manufacturing index.</p><p></li><li>On Wednesday (March 16), the monthly report of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, the month-on-month retail sales in the United States in February, and the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to March 11.</li><li>On Thursday (March 17), the US FOMC interest rate decision (lower limit) and (upper limit), the Bank of England policy interest rate, the euro zone's February reconciled CPI final year-on-year value, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of March 12 in the United States (10,000 people).</li><li>On Friday (March 18), Japan's core CPI in February, the euro zone's seasonally adjusted trade balance in January, and the total annualized existing home sales in the United States in February (10,000 households).</li></ul>Global central banks</p><p><ul><li>On Monday (March 14), there was no major event in the central bank.</li><li>On Tuesday (March 15th), the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.</li><li>On Wednesday (March 16), there was no major event in the central bank.</li><li>On Thursday (March 17), the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision, policy statement and economic expectation, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision and meeting minutes, and Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey and other emerging market central banks announced interest rate decisions.</li><li>On Friday (March 18th), the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision, and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held a monetary policy press conference.</li></ul>Take a new opportunity</p><p>There will be 7 new shares available for subscription next week. Among them, 1 is a new stock on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 4 are new stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 2 are on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition, Jusailong plans to land on the Growth Enterprise Market on March 14, with the stock code 301131. Silinger is expected to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on the same day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0970e519b6eff1dedc820bb11ef895c\" tg-width=\"1413\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>New fund</p><p>Fund issuance has reached a \"freezing point\", and the number of issuances has decreased significantly in the first two weeks. It is expected that 17 new funds will be launched (combined share calculation).</p><p>Among them, there are 10 closed-end funds, 2 partial stock hybrid funds and 2 passive index funds, 1 hybrid bond fund (secondary) and ordinary stock funds, and 1 medium and long-term pure debt fund.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/220c0753436100d10755a954c253911e\" tg-width=\"1411\" tg-height=\"791\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Financial reports Next week, many A-share companies such as Foster, China Merchants Bank, Oriental Fortune, Ping An of China, Shede Liquor Industry, Watson Bio and Wanhua Chemical will release financial reports; Hong Kong stock financial report attention: Li Ning, ZTO; In terms of U.S. stocks, Meituan Pinduoduo may release financial reports.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Next week's blockbuster agenda: Will the Fed rate hike?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNext week's blockbuster agenda: Will the Fed rate hike?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-13 16:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: \"Super Central Bank Week\" has opened, led by the Federal Reserve. Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions. In terms of data, China will publish monthly housing prices in 70 cities, including industrial added value above designated size, urban fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods and real estate development investment in February.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dbecb5c988e5f6825a71fb446f71212\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1130\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>A list of major financial events in the week from March 14th to March 18th, the following is Beijing time:</p><p><b>Next week, \"Super Central Bank Week\" kicks off.</b>Led by the Federal Reserve, Britain, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will all announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>Specifically, on March 17 (Thursday), the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce interest rate decisions, policy statements and economic expectations, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also hold a press conference afterwards.</p><p><b>The United States will officially start the rate hike cycle,</b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that he would recommend a 25 basis point rate hike at the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 15-16. According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the entire financial market may continue to fluctuate violently due to factors such as the uncertain situation in Ukraine, increased European and American sanctions against Russia, and soaring commodity prices. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will be cautious about rate hike. There may not be rate hike at every FOMC meeting this year, and there may not be a single 50 basis point rate hike this year. In addition, economists also expect the Fed dot plot to show four to five rate hike this year.</p><p><b>For the Bank of England,</b>As energy prices hit UK markets, pound overnight index swaps show money markets are betting that the Bank of England will rate hike by more than 100 basis points by June. This implies that there will be two 25 basis point rate hike actions and one 50 basis point action, spread over the next three meetings, and also means that the Bank of England may conduct its third consecutive rate hike next week.</p><p><b>Data terms,</b>Next week, the National Bureau of Statistics will release a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. China will announce the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, urban fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, real estate development investment and sales in February. The United States will announce more indicators that the market is concerned about, including PPI, the total number of new housing starts and building permits, and the number of weekly initial jobless claims. Eurozone February CPI and other data will also be released.</p><p><b>In terms of new opportunities,</b>There will be 7 new shares available for subscription next week. Among them, 1 is a new stock on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 4 are new stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 2 are on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition, Jusailong plans to list on the Growth Enterprise Market on March 14, with the stock code 301131. Silinger is expected to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on the same day.</p><p><b>Funds,</b>The issuance reached a \"freezing point\", and the number of issuances decreased significantly in the first two weeks. It is expected that 17 new funds will be launched (combined shares). Among them, there are 10 closed-end funds, 2 partial stock hybrid funds and 2 passive index funds, 1 hybrid bond fund (secondary) and ordinary stock funds, and 1 medium and long-term pure debt fund.</p><p><b>Financial reporting</b>Next week, many A-share companies such as Foster, China Merchants Bank, Oriental Fortune, Ping An, Shede Liquor, Watson Bio, and Wanhua Chemical will release financial reports; Hong Kong stock financial reports focus on Li Ning and ZTO.</p><p><b>Other aspects</b>, continue to pay attention to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the 12th local time, Podolyak, a member of the Ukrainian delegation in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the chief adviser of the Ukrainian President's Office, said in an interview that after the third round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the two sides conducted video A series of communications were carried out and a working group was established.</p><p>In addition, the Central Bank of Russia extended the stock market closure to March 18. The Central Bank of Russia said on its official website that it will announce later whether to resume trading from March 21.</p><p>Economic data</p><p><ul><li>On Monday (March 14), France's January trade balance.</li><li>On Tuesday (March 15), China's urban survey unemployment rate in February, China's total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February year-on-year, China's urban fixed asset investment from January to February year-on-year, China's industrial added value above designated size from January to February year-on-year, China's national real estate development investment from January to February; U.S. February PPI and core PPI year-on-year, U.S. March New York Fed manufacturing index.</p><p></li><li>On Wednesday (March 16), the monthly report of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, the month-on-month retail sales in the United States in February, and the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week to March 11.</li><li>On Thursday (March 17), the US FOMC interest rate decision (lower limit) and (upper limit), the Bank of England policy interest rate, the euro zone's February reconciled CPI final year-on-year value, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of March 12 in the United States (10,000 people).</li><li>On Friday (March 18), Japan's core CPI in February, the euro zone's seasonally adjusted trade balance in January, and the total annualized existing home sales in the United States in February (10,000 households).</li></ul>Global central banks</p><p><ul><li>On Monday (March 14), there was no major event in the central bank.</li><li>On Tuesday (March 15th), the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.</li><li>On Wednesday (March 16), there was no major event in the central bank.</li><li>On Thursday (March 17), the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision, policy statement and economic expectation, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision and meeting minutes, and Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey and other emerging market central banks announced interest rate decisions.</li><li>On Friday (March 18th), the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision, and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held a monetary policy press conference.</li></ul>Take a new opportunity</p><p>There will be 7 new shares available for subscription next week. Among them, 1 is a new stock on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 4 are new stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 2 are on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition, Jusailong plans to land on the Growth Enterprise Market on March 14, with the stock code 301131. Silinger is expected to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on the same day.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0970e519b6eff1dedc820bb11ef895c\" tg-width=\"1413\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>New fund</p><p>Fund issuance has reached a \"freezing point\", and the number of issuances has decreased significantly in the first two weeks. It is expected that 17 new funds will be launched (combined share calculation).</p><p>Among them, there are 10 closed-end funds, 2 partial stock hybrid funds and 2 passive index funds, 1 hybrid bond fund (secondary) and ordinary stock funds, and 1 medium and long-term pure debt fund.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/220c0753436100d10755a954c253911e\" tg-width=\"1411\" tg-height=\"791\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Financial reports Next week, many A-share companies such as Foster, China Merchants Bank, Oriental Fortune, Ping An of China, Shede Liquor Industry, Watson Bio and Wanhua Chemical will release financial reports; Hong Kong stock financial report attention: Li Ning, ZTO; In terms of U.S. stocks, Meituan Pinduoduo may release financial reports.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654032\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3654032","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2219740228","content_text":"摘要：“超级央行周”拉开大幕，由美联储领衔，英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。数据方面，中国将公布70城房价月度报告，2月规模以上工业增加值、城镇固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额、房地产开发投资。3月14日至3月18日当周重磅财经事件一览，以下均为北京时间：下周，“超级央行周”拉开大幕，由美联储领衔，英国、日本以及巴西、土耳其、印尼均将公布利率决议。具体来看，3月17日（周四），美联储FOMC将公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期，美联储主席鲍威尔也在此后将召开新闻发布会。美国将正式开启加息周期，美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示，他将于3月15-16日为期两天的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上建议加息25个基点。据彭博社调查的经济学家表示，受到乌克兰局势不确定、欧美对俄制裁加码和大宗商品价格飙升等因素影响，整个金融市场可能会持续剧烈波动，预计美联储将会对加息持谨慎态度，今年可能不会在每次FOMC会议上加息，并且今年可能不会有单次50个基点的加息幅度。此外，经济学家还预计美联储点阵图将会显示今年加息四至五次。英国央行方面，在能源价格冲击英国市场之际，英镑隔夜指数掉期显示，货币市场押注到6月份，英国央行将加息超过100个基点。这暗示25个基点的加息行动将有两次、50个基点一次，分散到未来三次会议上，也意味着下周英国央行可能连续第三次加息。数据方面，下周，国家统计局将发布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告，中国将公布2月规模以上工业增加值、城镇固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额、房地产开发投资与销售。美国将公布更多市场关注的指标，包括PPI、新屋开工及营建许可总数、每周首次申请失业金人数等。欧元区2月CPI等数据也将公布。打新机会方面，下周将有7只新股可申购。其中，1只为科创板新股，4只为创业板新股，2只上证主板。此外，聚赛龙拟3月14日登陆创业板，证券代码301131。思林杰预计同日在科创板上市。基金方面，发行遇“冰点”，发行数量就前两周大幅减少，预计有17只新基金首发(份额合并计算)。其中，包括封闭式基金10只、偏股混合型基金和被动指数型基金各2只、混合债券型基金(二级)和普通股票型基金、中长期纯债型基金各1只。财报方面，下周福斯特、招商银行、东方财富、中国平安、舍得酒业、沃森生物、万华化学等多家A股公司将发布财报；港股财报关注李宁、中通。其他方面，持续关注俄乌冲突进展，当地时间12日，俄乌谈判乌方代表团成员、乌总统办公室主任顾问波多利亚克在接受采访时表示，乌俄进行第三轮谈判后，双方以视频方式开展了系列沟通并成立了工作组。此外，俄罗斯央行将股市停开时间延长至3月18日。俄罗斯央行在官网表示，将在稍后宣布是否从3月21日起恢复交易。经济数据周一（3月14日），法国1月贸易帐。周二（3月15日），中国2月城镇调查失业率，中国1至2月社会消费品零售总额同比，中国1至2月城镇固定资产投资同比，中国1至2月规模以上工业增加值同比，中国1至2月全国房地产开发投资；美国2月PPI以及核心PPI同比，美国3月纽约联储制造业指数。周三（3月16日），中国70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告，美国2月零售销售环比，美国至3月11日当周EIA原油库存。周四（3月17日），美国FOMC利率决策(下限)以及(上限)，英国央行政策利率，欧元区2月调和CPI同比终值，美国3月12日当周首次申请失业救济人数(万人)。周五（3月18日），日本2月核心CPI，欧元区1月季调后贸易帐，美国2月成屋销售总数年化(万户)。全球央行周一（3月14日），央行方面无大事。周二（3月15日），澳洲联储公布货币政策会议纪要。周三（3月16日），央行方面无大事。周四（3月17日），美联储FOMC公布利率决议、政策声明及经济预期，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话， 英国央行公布利率决议和会议纪要，巴西、印尼、土耳其等新兴市场央行公布利率决议。周五（3月18日），日本央行公布利率决议，日本央行行长黑田东彦召开货币政策新闻发布会。打新机会下周将有7只新股可申购。其中，1只为科创板新股，4只为创业板新股，2只上证主板。此外，聚赛龙拟3月14日登陆创业板，证券代码301131。思林杰预计同日在科创板上市。新发基金基金发行遇“冰点”，发行数量就前两周大幅减少，预计有17只新基金首发(份额合并计算)。其中，包括封闭式基金10只、偏股混合型基金和被动指数型基金各2只、混合债券型基金(二级)和普通股票型基金、中长期纯债型基金各1只。财报下周福斯特、招商银行、东方财富、中国平安、舍得酒业、沃森生物、万华化学等多家A股公司将发布财报；港股财报关注：李宁、中通；美股方面，美团拼多多可能发布财报。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPY":1,"SQQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":1,"NQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}