TVijay personal page - To The Moon

TVijay

TVijay

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2023-03-01

$Shopify(SHOP)$ Need this to go up again... great stock but not performing during the last few quarters

2023-02-26

Ok

Buffett’s Annual Letter: Berkshire Will Always Hold a Boatload of Cash and U.S. Treasury Bills

2021-09-12

You can’t buy Amazon stick with USD 1,000 ?

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2021-06-07

Looking forward

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2021-06-11

Crypto is future

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2023-03-18

Grab holdings and debt

2021-06-08

?

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2023-03-29

BRK.B during crisis

2021-06-18

Bigger than Apple… Lifetime opportunity

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2021-06-09

Ok

China to reform bank deposit rates pricing regime, set new ceilings

2021-06-14

Great

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2021-06-10

Worth watching

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2021-06-09

Nice

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2021-06-09

?

Cathie Wood Sells Snapchat, DocuSign For Second Straight Day, Buys Spotify

2021-06-08

Waiting for a catalyst

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2021-06-07

Good case for both sides

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2021-06-18

Bottoming

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already

2021-06-10

Ballistic

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2023-03-05

$Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF(PBW)$ Sustainable energy stock... green world

2023-03-05

Ok

Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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If you missed it, go through the article&nbsp;","listText":"Great recap for 11 Aug. If you missed it, go through the article&nbsp;","text":"Great recap for 11 Aug. If you missed it, go through the article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/208358444355632","repostId":"207830509031600","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":207830509031600,"gmtCreate":1691763861487,"gmtModify":1691765387296,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572212908677301","idStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"Trade Recap 11 August","htmlText":"Another day of trading, I'm grateful to be able to earn small profits again&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp; Today I traded&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> again. 2 trades <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20230818 240.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230818 240.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>Bought in early&nbsp;when the price is flushing down in hopes for the price to break down 10mins opening range. Thanks to Lady Luck on my side, the price breakdown and I sold half my position.&nbsp;I&nbsp;was holding on for the second leg down, but it didn't happen. When it breakouts to theupside of the consolidation, I sold my other half to secure my&nbsp;small profits. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20230818 242.5 CALL\">$TSLA 20230818 242.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>Bought","listText":"Another day of trading, I'm grateful to be able to earn small profits again&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp; Today I traded&nbsp;<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> again. 2 trades <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20230818 240.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230818 240.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>Bought in early&nbsp;when the price is flushing down in hopes for the price to break down 10mins opening range. Thanks to Lady Luck on my side, the price breakdown and I sold half my position.&nbsp;I&nbsp;was holding on for the second leg down, but it didn't happen. When it breakouts to theupside of the consolidation, I sold my other half to secure my&nbsp;small profits. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLA 20230818 242.5 CALL\">$TSLA 20230818 242.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>Bought","text":"Another day of trading, I'm grateful to be able to earn small profits again [Miser] Today I traded $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ again. 2 trades $TSLA 20230818 240.0 PUT$ Bought in early when the price is flushing down in hopes for the price to break down 10mins opening range. Thanks to Lady Luck on my side, the price breakdown and I sold half my position. I was holding on for the second leg down, but it didn't happen. When it breakouts to theupside of the consolidation, I sold my other half to secure my small profits. $TSLA 20230818 242.5 CALL$ Bought","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/61723c3362891814afb7954c0ee17e1c","width":"2400","height":"1482"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/44bdc801e875a37c0493811500ffa537","width":"632","height":"902"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e2259422beabf5aab809e792268a7d0f","width":"618","height":"1066"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/207830509031600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944724469,"gmtCreate":1682220054652,"gmtModify":1682220059720,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583803140079308","idStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good one. It will help&nbsp;","listText":"Good one. It will help&nbsp;","text":"Good one. It will help","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a7c7ee44515d7889dc45a29ecec4568f","width":"1284","height":"3331"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944724469","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941699937,"gmtCreate":1680178426829,"gmtModify":1680178431696,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583803140079308","idStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is good info&nbsp;","listText":"This is good info&nbsp;","text":"This is good 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crisis","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/db8dba58d1002fc868b8f856b04fc043","width":"1284","height":"3331"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941807891","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943692376,"gmtCreate":1679392548595,"gmtModify":1679392554709,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583803140079308","idStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bank crisis... is it over?&nbsp;","listText":"Bank crisis... is it over?&nbsp;","text":"Bank crisis... is it 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money","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4824ba985a0b60843aa8cf04ee03f16b","width":"1284","height":"13770"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943398400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943398257,"gmtCreate":1679101722679,"gmtModify":1679101727425,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583803140079308","idStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Grab holdings and debt&nbsp;","listText":"Grab holdings and debt&nbsp;","text":"Grab holdings and debt","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f9dadc84fc776e40f4ec469602b0fdd2","width":"1284","height":"11890"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943398257","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943398614,"gmtCreate":1679101689339,"gmtModify":1679101694122,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583803140079308","idStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dividend higher than fixed deposit&nbsp;","listText":"Dividend higher than fixed deposit&nbsp;","text":"Dividend higher than fixed deposit","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74af58336bc4f47ae3d84c98b9396219","width":"1284","height":"3331"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943398614","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949576707,"gmtCreate":1678791847710,"gmtModify":1678791851300,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583803140079308","idStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good info for investors&nbsp;","listText":"Good info for investors&nbsp;","text":"Good info for 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know","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/db137c2379920a5971df35df493dea22","width":"1284","height":"3331"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949556268","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940285030,"gmtCreate":1677968320321,"gmtModify":1677968323810,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583803140079308","idStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PBW\">$Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF(PBW)$&nbsp;</a>Sustainable energy stock... green world&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PBW\">$Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF(PBW)$&nbsp;</a>Sustainable energy stock... green world&nbsp;","text":"$Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF(PBW)$ Sustainable energy stock... green world","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/955acc967e8bb63997417f9b4be9d1e8","width":"1284","height":"2517"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940285030","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940282449,"gmtCreate":1677968254881,"gmtModify":1677968260502,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583803140079308","idStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940282449","repostId":"1188147335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188147335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677896169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188147335?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-04 10:16","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188147335","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid Oc","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-04 10:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188147335","content_text":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.However, I'm highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my \"all-in\" bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my \"Stocks Are Heading Higher\" article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.Moreover, we're seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.SPX - At Another Inflection PointSPX(StockCharts.com)The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there's a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.There's a ChanceAlthough the probability is relatively low, SPX's support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it's premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.Why Inflation Remains a Big ProblemCPI InflationCPI(TradingEconomics.com )Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There's been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed's target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January's CPI came in hotter than expected.The Recent CPI ReportCPI (January)(Investing.com )The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month's reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it's not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.PCE InflationPCE inflation(Investing.com )The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month's 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as \"transitory\" as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.The Worsening EconomyHave you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they're not likely to go away anytime soon. Let's put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that's come out recently.Just from the start of February, we've seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.Is the Labor Market an Exception?Jobs data(Investing.com)The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We've recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.Valuations Are Not Cheap AnymoreWe've seen many companies' earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we've seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.Shiller P/E RatioShiller P/E(multpl.com)We've seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted \"CAPE\") ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.The Bottom LineWe've seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom \"all-in\" buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940870442,"gmtCreate":1677836243287,"gmtModify":1677836272654,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583803140079308","idStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ACN\">$Accenture PLC(ACN)$&nbsp;</a>Always consistent&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ACN\">$Accenture PLC(ACN)$&nbsp;</a>Always consistent&nbsp;","text":"$Accenture PLC(ACN)$ Always 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1677334099,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117520516?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-25 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buffett’s Annual Letter: Berkshire Will Always Hold a Boatload of Cash and U.S. Treasury Bills","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117520516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Warren Buffett is still betting on America.Stocks and bonds slumped in 2022 after central banks rais","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett is still betting on America.</p><p>Stocks and bonds slumped in 2022 after central banks raised interest rates at a rapid pace to try to rein in inflation. But Mr. Buffett retained his sense of optimism in his annual letter to investors Saturday, saying he attributes much of his success over the years to the resilience of the U.S. economy.</p><p>“I have been investing for 80 years—more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant—almost enthusiasm—for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America,” Mr. Buffett said in the letter.</p><p>Mr. Buffett, widely regarded as one of the world’s top investors, has been publishing the letters for more than half a century. Over that time, he hasn’t just reflected on the past year for his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., but also shared his thoughts on everything from esoteric accounting rules to his aversion to excessive risk-taking.</p><p>Saturday’s letter offered readers a glimpse into how Mr. Buffett, 92, viewed what wound up being a shaky stretch for markets.</p><p>The volatility offered Berkshire an opportunity to jump in and buy stocks. While Berkshire largely bought back its own shares in 2021, it focused more in 2022 on investing in other companies—opening up new positions in media company Paramount Global and building-materials manufacturer Louisiana-Pacific Corp., among other businesses, and swiftly becoming Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s single biggest shareholder.</p><p>As of the end of 2022, Berkshire was the largest shareholder of eight companies—American Express Co., Bank of America Corp., Chevron Corp., Coca-Cola Co., HP Inc., Moody’s Corp., Occidental and Paramount Global.</p><p>“America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true,” Mr. Buffett said.</p><p>Berkshire also released its results for 2022 on Saturday.</p><p>The Omaha, Neb., company, which owns businesses including insurer Geico, railroad BNSF Railway and chocolate maker See’s Candies, posted a loss of $22.82 billion for the year, stung by $67.9 billion in investment and derivative contract losses. In 2021, Berkshire posted a profit of $90.8 billion.</p><p>Total revenue rose 9.4% to $302.1 billion.</p><p>Berkshire’s operating earnings, which exclude some investment results, rose to a record $30.8 billion.</p><p>Mr. Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive, has long held that operating earnings are a better reflection of how Berkshire is doing, since accounting rules require the company to include unrealized gains and losses from its massive investment portfolio in its net income. Volatile markets can make Berkshire’s net income change substantially from quarter to quarter, regardless of how its underlying businesses are doing.</p><p>“Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades,” Mr. Buffett said in his letter. “But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors,” he said, adding that he and his right-hand man Charlie Munger urged shareholders to focus instead on Berkshire’s operating earnings, which rose to a record for the full year in 2022.</p><h2>Read the full letter here:</h2><p>To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:</p><p>Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing the savings of a great number of individuals. We are grateful for their enduring trust, a relationship that often spans much of their adult lifetime. It is those dedicated savers that are forefront in my mind as I write this letter.</p><p>A common belief is that people choose to save when young, expecting thereby to maintain their living standards after retirement. Any assets that remain at death, this theory says, will usually be left to their families or, possibly, to friends and philanthropy.</p><p>Our experience has differed. We believe Berkshire’s individual holders largely to be of the once-a-saver, always-a-saver variety. Though these people live well, they eventually dispense most of their funds to philanthropic organizations. These, in turn, redistribute the funds by expenditures intended to improve the lives of a great many people who are unrelated to the original benefactor. Sometimes, the results have been spectacular.</p><p>The disposition of money unmasks humans. Charlie and I watch with pleasure the vast flow of Berkshire-generated funds to public needs and, alongside, the infrequency with which our shareholders opt for look-at-me assets and dynasty-building.</p><p>Who wouldn’t enjoy working for shareholders like ours?</p><h2>What We Do</h2><p>Charlie and I allocate your savings at Berkshire between two related forms of ownership. First, we invest in businesses that we control, usually buying 100% of each. Berkshire directs capital allocation at these subsidiaries and selects the CEOs who make day-by-day operating decisions. When large enterprises are being managed, both trust and rules are essential. Berkshire emphasizes the former to an unusual – some would say extreme – degree. Disappointments are inevitable. We are understanding about business mistakes; our tolerance for personal misconduct is zero.</p><p>In our second category of ownership, we buy publicly-traded stocks through which we passively own pieces of businesses. Holding these investments, we have no say in management.</p><p>Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.</p><p>Over the years, I have made many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal. Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public. Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.”</p><p>One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.</p><p>Controlled businesses are a different breed. They sometimes command ridiculously higher prices than justified but are almost never available at bargain valuations. Unless under duress, the owner of a controlled business gives no thought to selling at a panic-type valuation.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>At this point, a report card from me is appropriate: In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck. (Remember our escapes from near-disasters at USAir and Salomon? I certainly do.)</p><p>Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire. Let’s take a peek behind the curtain.</p><h2>The Secret Sauce</h2><p>In August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningful sum at Berkshire.</p><p>The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlie and I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checks are highly likely to grow.</p><p>American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likely to increase.</p><p>These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with them important gains in stock prices. At yearend, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion while Amex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s net worth, akin to its weighting long ago.</p><p>Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income.</p><p>The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.</p><h2>The Past Year in Brief</h2><p>Berkshire had a good year in 2022. The company’s operating earnings – our term for income calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”), exclusive of capital gains or losses from equity holdings – set a record at $30.8 billion. Charlie and I focus on this operational figure and urge you to do so as well. The GAAP figure, absent our adjustment, fluctuates wildly and capriciously at every reporting date. Note its acrobatic behavior in 2022, which is in no way unusual:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e74650656620f9fa3f1e55c15a90e5\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"207\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The GAAP earnings are 100% misleading when viewed quarterly or even annually. Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades. But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors.</p><p>A second positive development for Berkshire last year was our purchase of Alleghany Corporation, a property-casualty insurer captained by Joe Brandon. I’ve worked with Joe in the past, and he understands both Berkshire  and insurance. Alleghany delivers special value to us because Berkshire’s unmatched financial strength allows its insurance subsidiaries to follow valuable and enduring investment strategies unavailable to virtually all competitors.</p><p>Aided by Alleghany, our insurance float increased during 2022 from $147 billion to $164 billion. With disciplined underwriting, these funds have a decent chance of being cost-free over time. Since purchasing our first property-casualty insurer in 1967, Berkshire’s float has increased 8,000-fold through acquisitions, operations and innovations. Though not recognized in our financial statements, this float has been an extraordinary asset for Berkshire. New shareholders can get an understanding of its value by reading our annually updated explanation of float on page A-2.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>A very minor gain in per-share intrinsic value took place in 2022 through Berkshire share repurchases as well as similar moves at Apple and American Express, both significant investees of ours. At Berkshire, we directly increased your interest in our unique collection of businesses by repurchasing 1.2% of the company’s outstanding shares. At Apple and Amex, repurchases increased Berkshire’s ownership a bit without any cost to us.</p><p>The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases.</p><p>Gains from value-accretive repurchases, it should be emphasized, benefit all owners – in every respect. Imagine, if you will, three fully-informed shareholders of a local auto dealership, one of whom manages the business. Imagine, further, that one of the passive owners wishes to sell his interest back to the company at a price attractive to the two continuing shareholders. When completed, has this transaction harmed anyone? Is the manager somehow favored over the continuing passive owners? Has the public been hurt?</p><p>When you are told that all repurchases are harmful to shareholders or to the country, or particularly beneficial to CEOs, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue (characters that are not mutually exclusive).</p><p>Almost endless details of Berkshire’s 2022 operations are laid out on pages K-33 – K-66. Charlie and I, along with many Berkshire shareholders, enjoy poring over the many facts and figures laid out in that section. These pages are not, however, required reading. There are many Berkshire centimillionaires and, yes, billionaires who have never studied our financial figures. They simply know that Charlie and I – along with our families and close friends – continue to have very significant investments in Berkshire, and they trust us to treat their money as we do our own.</p><p>And that is a promise we can make.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Finally, an important warning: Even the operating earnings figure that we favor can easily be manipulated by managers who wish to do so. Such tampering is often thought of as sophisticated by CEOs, directors and their advisors. Reporters and analysts embrace its existence as well. Beating “expectations” is heralded as a managerial triumph.</p><p>That activity is disgusting. It requires no talent to manipulate numbers: Only a deep desire to deceive is required. “Bold imaginative accounting,” as a CEO once described his deception to me, has become one of the shames of capitalism.</p><h2>58 Years – and a Few Figures</h2><p>In 1965, Berkshire was a one-trick pony, the owner of a venerable – but doomed – New England textile operation. With that business on a death march, Berkshire needed an immediate fresh start. Looking back, I was slow to recognize the severity of its problems.</p><p>And then came a stroke of good luck: National Indemnity became available in 1967, and we shifted our resources toward insurance and other non-textile operations.</p><p>Thus began our journey to 2023, a bumpy road involving a combination of continuous savings by our owners (that is, by their retaining earnings), the power of compounding, our avoidance of major mistakes and – most important of all – the American Tailwind. America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true.</p><p>Berkshire now enjoys major ownership in an unmatched collection of huge and diversified businesses. Let’s first look at the 5,000 or so publicly-held companies that trade daily on NASDAQ, the NYSE and related venues. Within this group is housed the members of the S&amp;P 500 Index, an elite collection of large and well-known American companies.</p><p>In aggregate, the 500 earned $1.8 trillion in 2021. I don’t yet have the final results for 2022. Using, therefore, the 2021 figures, only 128 of the 500 (including Berkshire itself) earned $3 billion or more. Indeed, 23 lost money.</p><p>At yearend 2022, Berkshire was the largest owner of eight of these giants: American Express, Bank of America, Chevron, Coca-Cola, HP Inc., Moody’s, Occidental Petroleum and Paramount Global.</p><p>In addition to those eight investees, Berkshire owns 100% of BNSF and 92% of BH Energy, each with earnings that exceed the $3 billion mark noted above ($5.9 billion at BNSF and</p><p>$4.3 billion at BHE). Were these companies publicly-owned, they would replace two present members of the 500. All told, our ten controlled and non-controlled behemoths leave Berkshire more broadly aligned with the country’s economic future than is the case at any other U.S. company. (This calculation leaves aside “fiduciary” operations such as pension funds and investment companies.) In addition, Berkshire’s insurance operation, though conducted through many individually-managed subsidiaries, has a value comparable to BNSF or BHE.</p><p>As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses. We will also avoid behavior that could result in any uncomfortable cash needs at inconvenient times, including financial panics and unprecedented insurance losses. Our CEO will always be the Chief Risk Officer – a task it is irresponsible to delegate. Additionally, our future CEOs will have a significant part of their net worth in Berkshire shares, bought with their own money. And yes, our shareholders will continue to save and prosper by retaining earnings.</p><p>At Berkshire, there will be no finish line.</p><h2>Some Surprising Facts About Federal Taxes</h2><p>During the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion.</p><p>Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than useless. Our job is to manage Berkshire’s operations and finances in a manner that will achieve an acceptable result over time and that will preserve the company’s unmatched staying power when financial panics or severe worldwide recessions occur. Berkshire also offers some modest protection from runaway inflation, but this attribute is far from perfect. Huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences.</p><p>The $32 trillion of revenue was garnered by the Treasury through individual income taxes (48%), social security and related receipts (3412%), corporate income tax payments (812%) and a wide variety of lesser levies. Berkshire’s contribution via the corporate income tax was $32 billion during the decade, almost exactly a tenth of 1% of all money that the Treasury collected.</p><p>And that means – brace yourself – had there been roughly 1,000 taxpayers in the U.S. matching Berkshire’s payments, no other businesses nor any of the country’s 131 million households would have needed to pay any taxes to the federal government. Not a dime.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Millions, billions, trillions – we all know the words, but the sums involved are almost impossible to comprehend. Let’s put physical dimensions to the numbers:</p><p>- If you convert $1 million into newly-printed $100 bills, you will have a stack that reaches your chest.</p><p>- Perform the same exercise with $1 billion – this is getting exciting! – and the stack reaches about 34 of a mile into the sky.</p><p>- Finally, imagine piling up $32 billion, the total of Berkshire’s 2012-21 federal income tax payments. Now the stack grows to more than 21 miles in height, about three times the level at which commercial airplanes usually cruise.</p><p>When it comes to federal taxes, individuals who own Berkshire can unequivocally state “I gave at the office.”</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>At Berkshire we hope and expect to pay much more in taxes during the next decade. We owe the country no less: America’s dynamism has made a huge contribution to whatever success Berkshire has achieved – a contribution Berkshire will always need. We count on the American Tailwind and, though it has been becalmed from time to time, its propelling force has always returned.</p><p>I have been investing for 80 years – more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant – almost enthusiasm – for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America. And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future.</p><h2>Nothing Beats Having a Great Partner</h2><p>Charlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated.</p><p>Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast:</p><p>- The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.</p><p>- If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.</p><p>- All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.</p><p>- If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results.</p><p>- Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.</p><p>- You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest.</p><p>- Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.</p><p>- A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that.</p><p>- Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time.</p><p>- Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying.</p><p>- There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.</p><p>- You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich.</p><p>- You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.</p><p>- Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never.</p><p>- Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.”</p><p>And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own:   Find   a   very   smart   high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says.</p><h2>A Family Gathering in Omaha</h2><p>Charlie and I are shameless. Last year, at our first shareholder get-together in three years, we greeted you with our usual commercial hustle.</p><p>From the opening bell, we went straight for your wallet. In short order, our See’s kiosk sold you eleven tons of nourishing peanut brittle and chocolates. In our P.T. Barnum pitch, we promised you longevity. After all, what else but candy from See’s could account for Charlie and me making it to 99 and 92?</p><p>I know you can’t wait to hear the specifics of last year’s hustle.</p><p>On Friday, the doors were open from noon until 5 p.m., and our candy counters rang up 2,690 individual sales. On Saturday, See’s registered an additional 3,931 transactions between 7 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., despite the fact that 612 of the 912 operating hours occurred while our movie and the question-and-answer session were limiting commercial traffic.</p><p>Do the math: See’s rang up about 10 sales per minute during its prime operating time (racking up $400,309 of volume during the two days), with all the goods purchased at a single location selling products that haven’t been materially altered in 101 years. What worked for See’s in the days of Henry Ford’s model T works now.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Charlie, I, and the entire Berkshire bunch look forward to seeing you in Omaha on May 5-6. We will have a good time and so will you.</p><p>February 25, 2023 Warren E. Buffett </p><p>Chairman of the Board</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett’s Annual Letter: Berkshire Will Always Hold a Boatload of Cash and U.S. Treasury Bills</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett’s Annual Letter: Berkshire Will Always Hold a Boatload of Cash and U.S. Treasury Bills\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-25 22:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett is still betting on America.</p><p>Stocks and bonds slumped in 2022 after central banks raised interest rates at a rapid pace to try to rein in inflation. But Mr. Buffett retained his sense of optimism in his annual letter to investors Saturday, saying he attributes much of his success over the years to the resilience of the U.S. economy.</p><p>“I have been investing for 80 years—more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant—almost enthusiasm—for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America,” Mr. Buffett said in the letter.</p><p>Mr. Buffett, widely regarded as one of the world’s top investors, has been publishing the letters for more than half a century. Over that time, he hasn’t just reflected on the past year for his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., but also shared his thoughts on everything from esoteric accounting rules to his aversion to excessive risk-taking.</p><p>Saturday’s letter offered readers a glimpse into how Mr. Buffett, 92, viewed what wound up being a shaky stretch for markets.</p><p>The volatility offered Berkshire an opportunity to jump in and buy stocks. While Berkshire largely bought back its own shares in 2021, it focused more in 2022 on investing in other companies—opening up new positions in media company Paramount Global and building-materials manufacturer Louisiana-Pacific Corp., among other businesses, and swiftly becoming Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s single biggest shareholder.</p><p>As of the end of 2022, Berkshire was the largest shareholder of eight companies—American Express Co., Bank of America Corp., Chevron Corp., Coca-Cola Co., HP Inc., Moody’s Corp., Occidental and Paramount Global.</p><p>“America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true,” Mr. Buffett said.</p><p>Berkshire also released its results for 2022 on Saturday.</p><p>The Omaha, Neb., company, which owns businesses including insurer Geico, railroad BNSF Railway and chocolate maker See’s Candies, posted a loss of $22.82 billion for the year, stung by $67.9 billion in investment and derivative contract losses. In 2021, Berkshire posted a profit of $90.8 billion.</p><p>Total revenue rose 9.4% to $302.1 billion.</p><p>Berkshire’s operating earnings, which exclude some investment results, rose to a record $30.8 billion.</p><p>Mr. Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive, has long held that operating earnings are a better reflection of how Berkshire is doing, since accounting rules require the company to include unrealized gains and losses from its massive investment portfolio in its net income. Volatile markets can make Berkshire’s net income change substantially from quarter to quarter, regardless of how its underlying businesses are doing.</p><p>“Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades,” Mr. Buffett said in his letter. “But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors,” he said, adding that he and his right-hand man Charlie Munger urged shareholders to focus instead on Berkshire’s operating earnings, which rose to a record for the full year in 2022.</p><h2>Read the full letter here:</h2><p>To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:</p><p>Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing the savings of a great number of individuals. We are grateful for their enduring trust, a relationship that often spans much of their adult lifetime. It is those dedicated savers that are forefront in my mind as I write this letter.</p><p>A common belief is that people choose to save when young, expecting thereby to maintain their living standards after retirement. Any assets that remain at death, this theory says, will usually be left to their families or, possibly, to friends and philanthropy.</p><p>Our experience has differed. We believe Berkshire’s individual holders largely to be of the once-a-saver, always-a-saver variety. Though these people live well, they eventually dispense most of their funds to philanthropic organizations. These, in turn, redistribute the funds by expenditures intended to improve the lives of a great many people who are unrelated to the original benefactor. Sometimes, the results have been spectacular.</p><p>The disposition of money unmasks humans. Charlie and I watch with pleasure the vast flow of Berkshire-generated funds to public needs and, alongside, the infrequency with which our shareholders opt for look-at-me assets and dynasty-building.</p><p>Who wouldn’t enjoy working for shareholders like ours?</p><h2>What We Do</h2><p>Charlie and I allocate your savings at Berkshire between two related forms of ownership. First, we invest in businesses that we control, usually buying 100% of each. Berkshire directs capital allocation at these subsidiaries and selects the CEOs who make day-by-day operating decisions. When large enterprises are being managed, both trust and rules are essential. Berkshire emphasizes the former to an unusual – some would say extreme – degree. Disappointments are inevitable. We are understanding about business mistakes; our tolerance for personal misconduct is zero.</p><p>In our second category of ownership, we buy publicly-traded stocks through which we passively own pieces of businesses. Holding these investments, we have no say in management.</p><p>Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.</p><p>Over the years, I have made many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal. Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public. Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.”</p><p>One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.</p><p>Controlled businesses are a different breed. They sometimes command ridiculously higher prices than justified but are almost never available at bargain valuations. Unless under duress, the owner of a controlled business gives no thought to selling at a panic-type valuation.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>At this point, a report card from me is appropriate: In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck. (Remember our escapes from near-disasters at USAir and Salomon? I certainly do.)</p><p>Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire. Let’s take a peek behind the curtain.</p><h2>The Secret Sauce</h2><p>In August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningful sum at Berkshire.</p><p>The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlie and I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checks are highly likely to grow.</p><p>American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likely to increase.</p><p>These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with them important gains in stock prices. At yearend, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion while Amex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s net worth, akin to its weighting long ago.</p><p>Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income.</p><p>The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.</p><h2>The Past Year in Brief</h2><p>Berkshire had a good year in 2022. The company’s operating earnings – our term for income calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”), exclusive of capital gains or losses from equity holdings – set a record at $30.8 billion. Charlie and I focus on this operational figure and urge you to do so as well. The GAAP figure, absent our adjustment, fluctuates wildly and capriciously at every reporting date. Note its acrobatic behavior in 2022, which is in no way unusual:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e74650656620f9fa3f1e55c15a90e5\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"207\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The GAAP earnings are 100% misleading when viewed quarterly or even annually. Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades. But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors.</p><p>A second positive development for Berkshire last year was our purchase of Alleghany Corporation, a property-casualty insurer captained by Joe Brandon. I’ve worked with Joe in the past, and he understands both Berkshire  and insurance. Alleghany delivers special value to us because Berkshire’s unmatched financial strength allows its insurance subsidiaries to follow valuable and enduring investment strategies unavailable to virtually all competitors.</p><p>Aided by Alleghany, our insurance float increased during 2022 from $147 billion to $164 billion. With disciplined underwriting, these funds have a decent chance of being cost-free over time. Since purchasing our first property-casualty insurer in 1967, Berkshire’s float has increased 8,000-fold through acquisitions, operations and innovations. Though not recognized in our financial statements, this float has been an extraordinary asset for Berkshire. New shareholders can get an understanding of its value by reading our annually updated explanation of float on page A-2.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>A very minor gain in per-share intrinsic value took place in 2022 through Berkshire share repurchases as well as similar moves at Apple and American Express, both significant investees of ours. At Berkshire, we directly increased your interest in our unique collection of businesses by repurchasing 1.2% of the company’s outstanding shares. At Apple and Amex, repurchases increased Berkshire’s ownership a bit without any cost to us.</p><p>The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases.</p><p>Gains from value-accretive repurchases, it should be emphasized, benefit all owners – in every respect. Imagine, if you will, three fully-informed shareholders of a local auto dealership, one of whom manages the business. Imagine, further, that one of the passive owners wishes to sell his interest back to the company at a price attractive to the two continuing shareholders. When completed, has this transaction harmed anyone? Is the manager somehow favored over the continuing passive owners? Has the public been hurt?</p><p>When you are told that all repurchases are harmful to shareholders or to the country, or particularly beneficial to CEOs, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue (characters that are not mutually exclusive).</p><p>Almost endless details of Berkshire’s 2022 operations are laid out on pages K-33 – K-66. Charlie and I, along with many Berkshire shareholders, enjoy poring over the many facts and figures laid out in that section. These pages are not, however, required reading. There are many Berkshire centimillionaires and, yes, billionaires who have never studied our financial figures. They simply know that Charlie and I – along with our families and close friends – continue to have very significant investments in Berkshire, and they trust us to treat their money as we do our own.</p><p>And that is a promise we can make.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Finally, an important warning: Even the operating earnings figure that we favor can easily be manipulated by managers who wish to do so. Such tampering is often thought of as sophisticated by CEOs, directors and their advisors. Reporters and analysts embrace its existence as well. Beating “expectations” is heralded as a managerial triumph.</p><p>That activity is disgusting. It requires no talent to manipulate numbers: Only a deep desire to deceive is required. “Bold imaginative accounting,” as a CEO once described his deception to me, has become one of the shames of capitalism.</p><h2>58 Years – and a Few Figures</h2><p>In 1965, Berkshire was a one-trick pony, the owner of a venerable – but doomed – New England textile operation. With that business on a death march, Berkshire needed an immediate fresh start. Looking back, I was slow to recognize the severity of its problems.</p><p>And then came a stroke of good luck: National Indemnity became available in 1967, and we shifted our resources toward insurance and other non-textile operations.</p><p>Thus began our journey to 2023, a bumpy road involving a combination of continuous savings by our owners (that is, by their retaining earnings), the power of compounding, our avoidance of major mistakes and – most important of all – the American Tailwind. America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true.</p><p>Berkshire now enjoys major ownership in an unmatched collection of huge and diversified businesses. Let’s first look at the 5,000 or so publicly-held companies that trade daily on NASDAQ, the NYSE and related venues. Within this group is housed the members of the S&amp;P 500 Index, an elite collection of large and well-known American companies.</p><p>In aggregate, the 500 earned $1.8 trillion in 2021. I don’t yet have the final results for 2022. Using, therefore, the 2021 figures, only 128 of the 500 (including Berkshire itself) earned $3 billion or more. Indeed, 23 lost money.</p><p>At yearend 2022, Berkshire was the largest owner of eight of these giants: American Express, Bank of America, Chevron, Coca-Cola, HP Inc., Moody’s, Occidental Petroleum and Paramount Global.</p><p>In addition to those eight investees, Berkshire owns 100% of BNSF and 92% of BH Energy, each with earnings that exceed the $3 billion mark noted above ($5.9 billion at BNSF and</p><p>$4.3 billion at BHE). Were these companies publicly-owned, they would replace two present members of the 500. All told, our ten controlled and non-controlled behemoths leave Berkshire more broadly aligned with the country’s economic future than is the case at any other U.S. company. (This calculation leaves aside “fiduciary” operations such as pension funds and investment companies.) In addition, Berkshire’s insurance operation, though conducted through many individually-managed subsidiaries, has a value comparable to BNSF or BHE.</p><p>As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses. We will also avoid behavior that could result in any uncomfortable cash needs at inconvenient times, including financial panics and unprecedented insurance losses. Our CEO will always be the Chief Risk Officer – a task it is irresponsible to delegate. Additionally, our future CEOs will have a significant part of their net worth in Berkshire shares, bought with their own money. And yes, our shareholders will continue to save and prosper by retaining earnings.</p><p>At Berkshire, there will be no finish line.</p><h2>Some Surprising Facts About Federal Taxes</h2><p>During the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion.</p><p>Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than useless. Our job is to manage Berkshire’s operations and finances in a manner that will achieve an acceptable result over time and that will preserve the company’s unmatched staying power when financial panics or severe worldwide recessions occur. Berkshire also offers some modest protection from runaway inflation, but this attribute is far from perfect. Huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences.</p><p>The $32 trillion of revenue was garnered by the Treasury through individual income taxes (48%), social security and related receipts (3412%), corporate income tax payments (812%) and a wide variety of lesser levies. Berkshire’s contribution via the corporate income tax was $32 billion during the decade, almost exactly a tenth of 1% of all money that the Treasury collected.</p><p>And that means – brace yourself – had there been roughly 1,000 taxpayers in the U.S. matching Berkshire’s payments, no other businesses nor any of the country’s 131 million households would have needed to pay any taxes to the federal government. Not a dime.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Millions, billions, trillions – we all know the words, but the sums involved are almost impossible to comprehend. Let’s put physical dimensions to the numbers:</p><p>- If you convert $1 million into newly-printed $100 bills, you will have a stack that reaches your chest.</p><p>- Perform the same exercise with $1 billion – this is getting exciting! – and the stack reaches about 34 of a mile into the sky.</p><p>- Finally, imagine piling up $32 billion, the total of Berkshire’s 2012-21 federal income tax payments. Now the stack grows to more than 21 miles in height, about three times the level at which commercial airplanes usually cruise.</p><p>When it comes to federal taxes, individuals who own Berkshire can unequivocally state “I gave at the office.”</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>At Berkshire we hope and expect to pay much more in taxes during the next decade. We owe the country no less: America’s dynamism has made a huge contribution to whatever success Berkshire has achieved – a contribution Berkshire will always need. We count on the American Tailwind and, though it has been becalmed from time to time, its propelling force has always returned.</p><p>I have been investing for 80 years – more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant – almost enthusiasm – for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America. And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future.</p><h2>Nothing Beats Having a Great Partner</h2><p>Charlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated.</p><p>Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast:</p><p>- The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.</p><p>- If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.</p><p>- All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.</p><p>- If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results.</p><p>- Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.</p><p>- You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest.</p><p>- Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.</p><p>- A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that.</p><p>- Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time.</p><p>- Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying.</p><p>- There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.</p><p>- You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich.</p><p>- You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.</p><p>- Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never.</p><p>- Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.”</p><p>And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own:   Find   a   very   smart   high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says.</p><h2>A Family Gathering in Omaha</h2><p>Charlie and I are shameless. Last year, at our first shareholder get-together in three years, we greeted you with our usual commercial hustle.</p><p>From the opening bell, we went straight for your wallet. In short order, our See’s kiosk sold you eleven tons of nourishing peanut brittle and chocolates. In our P.T. Barnum pitch, we promised you longevity. After all, what else but candy from See’s could account for Charlie and me making it to 99 and 92?</p><p>I know you can’t wait to hear the specifics of last year’s hustle.</p><p>On Friday, the doors were open from noon until 5 p.m., and our candy counters rang up 2,690 individual sales. On Saturday, See’s registered an additional 3,931 transactions between 7 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., despite the fact that 612 of the 912 operating hours occurred while our movie and the question-and-answer session were limiting commercial traffic.</p><p>Do the math: See’s rang up about 10 sales per minute during its prime operating time (racking up $400,309 of volume during the two days), with all the goods purchased at a single location selling products that haven’t been materially altered in 101 years. What worked for See’s in the days of Henry Ford’s model T works now.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Charlie, I, and the entire Berkshire bunch look forward to seeing you in Omaha on May 5-6. We will have a good time and so will you.</p><p>February 25, 2023 Warren E. Buffett </p><p>Chairman of the Board</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117520516","content_text":"Warren Buffett is still betting on America.Stocks and bonds slumped in 2022 after central banks raised interest rates at a rapid pace to try to rein in inflation. But Mr. Buffett retained his sense of optimism in his annual letter to investors Saturday, saying he attributes much of his success over the years to the resilience of the U.S. economy.“I have been investing for 80 years—more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant—almost enthusiasm—for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America,” Mr. Buffett said in the letter.Mr. Buffett, widely regarded as one of the world’s top investors, has been publishing the letters for more than half a century. Over that time, he hasn’t just reflected on the past year for his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., but also shared his thoughts on everything from esoteric accounting rules to his aversion to excessive risk-taking.Saturday’s letter offered readers a glimpse into how Mr. Buffett, 92, viewed what wound up being a shaky stretch for markets.The volatility offered Berkshire an opportunity to jump in and buy stocks. While Berkshire largely bought back its own shares in 2021, it focused more in 2022 on investing in other companies—opening up new positions in media company Paramount Global and building-materials manufacturer Louisiana-Pacific Corp., among other businesses, and swiftly becoming Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s single biggest shareholder.As of the end of 2022, Berkshire was the largest shareholder of eight companies—American Express Co., Bank of America Corp., Chevron Corp., Coca-Cola Co., HP Inc., Moody’s Corp., Occidental and Paramount Global.“America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true,” Mr. Buffett said.Berkshire also released its results for 2022 on Saturday.The Omaha, Neb., company, which owns businesses including insurer Geico, railroad BNSF Railway and chocolate maker See’s Candies, posted a loss of $22.82 billion for the year, stung by $67.9 billion in investment and derivative contract losses. In 2021, Berkshire posted a profit of $90.8 billion.Total revenue rose 9.4% to $302.1 billion.Berkshire’s operating earnings, which exclude some investment results, rose to a record $30.8 billion.Mr. Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive, has long held that operating earnings are a better reflection of how Berkshire is doing, since accounting rules require the company to include unrealized gains and losses from its massive investment portfolio in its net income. Volatile markets can make Berkshire’s net income change substantially from quarter to quarter, regardless of how its underlying businesses are doing.“Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades,” Mr. Buffett said in his letter. “But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors,” he said, adding that he and his right-hand man Charlie Munger urged shareholders to focus instead on Berkshire’s operating earnings, which rose to a record for the full year in 2022.Read the full letter here:To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing the savings of a great number of individuals. We are grateful for their enduring trust, a relationship that often spans much of their adult lifetime. It is those dedicated savers that are forefront in my mind as I write this letter.A common belief is that people choose to save when young, expecting thereby to maintain their living standards after retirement. Any assets that remain at death, this theory says, will usually be left to their families or, possibly, to friends and philanthropy.Our experience has differed. We believe Berkshire’s individual holders largely to be of the once-a-saver, always-a-saver variety. Though these people live well, they eventually dispense most of their funds to philanthropic organizations. These, in turn, redistribute the funds by expenditures intended to improve the lives of a great many people who are unrelated to the original benefactor. Sometimes, the results have been spectacular.The disposition of money unmasks humans. Charlie and I watch with pleasure the vast flow of Berkshire-generated funds to public needs and, alongside, the infrequency with which our shareholders opt for look-at-me assets and dynasty-building.Who wouldn’t enjoy working for shareholders like ours?What We DoCharlie and I allocate your savings at Berkshire between two related forms of ownership. First, we invest in businesses that we control, usually buying 100% of each. Berkshire directs capital allocation at these subsidiaries and selects the CEOs who make day-by-day operating decisions. When large enterprises are being managed, both trust and rules are essential. Berkshire emphasizes the former to an unusual – some would say extreme – degree. Disappointments are inevitable. We are understanding about business mistakes; our tolerance for personal misconduct is zero.In our second category of ownership, we buy publicly-traded stocks through which we passively own pieces of businesses. Holding these investments, we have no say in management.Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.Over the years, I have made many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal. Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public. Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.”One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.Controlled businesses are a different breed. They sometimes command ridiculously higher prices than justified but are almost never available at bargain valuations. Unless under duress, the owner of a controlled business gives no thought to selling at a panic-type valuation.* * * * * * * * * * * *At this point, a report card from me is appropriate: In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck. (Remember our escapes from near-disasters at USAir and Salomon? I certainly do.)Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire. Let’s take a peek behind the curtain.The Secret SauceIn August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningful sum at Berkshire.The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlie and I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checks are highly likely to grow.American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likely to increase.These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with them important gains in stock prices. At yearend, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion while Amex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s net worth, akin to its weighting long ago.Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income.The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.The Past Year in BriefBerkshire had a good year in 2022. The company’s operating earnings – our term for income calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”), exclusive of capital gains or losses from equity holdings – set a record at $30.8 billion. Charlie and I focus on this operational figure and urge you to do so as well. The GAAP figure, absent our adjustment, fluctuates wildly and capriciously at every reporting date. Note its acrobatic behavior in 2022, which is in no way unusual:The GAAP earnings are 100% misleading when viewed quarterly or even annually. Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades. But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors.A second positive development for Berkshire last year was our purchase of Alleghany Corporation, a property-casualty insurer captained by Joe Brandon. I’ve worked with Joe in the past, and he understands both Berkshire  and insurance. Alleghany delivers special value to us because Berkshire’s unmatched financial strength allows its insurance subsidiaries to follow valuable and enduring investment strategies unavailable to virtually all competitors.Aided by Alleghany, our insurance float increased during 2022 from $147 billion to $164 billion. With disciplined underwriting, these funds have a decent chance of being cost-free over time. Since purchasing our first property-casualty insurer in 1967, Berkshire’s float has increased 8,000-fold through acquisitions, operations and innovations. Though not recognized in our financial statements, this float has been an extraordinary asset for Berkshire. New shareholders can get an understanding of its value by reading our annually updated explanation of float on page A-2.* * * * * * * * * * * *A very minor gain in per-share intrinsic value took place in 2022 through Berkshire share repurchases as well as similar moves at Apple and American Express, both significant investees of ours. At Berkshire, we directly increased your interest in our unique collection of businesses by repurchasing 1.2% of the company’s outstanding shares. At Apple and Amex, repurchases increased Berkshire’s ownership a bit without any cost to us.The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases.Gains from value-accretive repurchases, it should be emphasized, benefit all owners – in every respect. Imagine, if you will, three fully-informed shareholders of a local auto dealership, one of whom manages the business. Imagine, further, that one of the passive owners wishes to sell his interest back to the company at a price attractive to the two continuing shareholders. When completed, has this transaction harmed anyone? Is the manager somehow favored over the continuing passive owners? Has the public been hurt?When you are told that all repurchases are harmful to shareholders or to the country, or particularly beneficial to CEOs, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue (characters that are not mutually exclusive).Almost endless details of Berkshire’s 2022 operations are laid out on pages K-33 – K-66. Charlie and I, along with many Berkshire shareholders, enjoy poring over the many facts and figures laid out in that section. These pages are not, however, required reading. There are many Berkshire centimillionaires and, yes, billionaires who have never studied our financial figures. They simply know that Charlie and I – along with our families and close friends – continue to have very significant investments in Berkshire, and they trust us to treat their money as we do our own.And that is a promise we can make.* * * * * * * * * * * *Finally, an important warning: Even the operating earnings figure that we favor can easily be manipulated by managers who wish to do so. Such tampering is often thought of as sophisticated by CEOs, directors and their advisors. Reporters and analysts embrace its existence as well. Beating “expectations” is heralded as a managerial triumph.That activity is disgusting. It requires no talent to manipulate numbers: Only a deep desire to deceive is required. “Bold imaginative accounting,” as a CEO once described his deception to me, has become one of the shames of capitalism.58 Years – and a Few FiguresIn 1965, Berkshire was a one-trick pony, the owner of a venerable – but doomed – New England textile operation. With that business on a death march, Berkshire needed an immediate fresh start. Looking back, I was slow to recognize the severity of its problems.And then came a stroke of good luck: National Indemnity became available in 1967, and we shifted our resources toward insurance and other non-textile operations.Thus began our journey to 2023, a bumpy road involving a combination of continuous savings by our owners (that is, by their retaining earnings), the power of compounding, our avoidance of major mistakes and – most important of all – the American Tailwind. America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true.Berkshire now enjoys major ownership in an unmatched collection of huge and diversified businesses. Let’s first look at the 5,000 or so publicly-held companies that trade daily on NASDAQ, the NYSE and related venues. Within this group is housed the members of the S&P 500 Index, an elite collection of large and well-known American companies.In aggregate, the 500 earned $1.8 trillion in 2021. I don’t yet have the final results for 2022. Using, therefore, the 2021 figures, only 128 of the 500 (including Berkshire itself) earned $3 billion or more. Indeed, 23 lost money.At yearend 2022, Berkshire was the largest owner of eight of these giants: American Express, Bank of America, Chevron, Coca-Cola, HP Inc., Moody’s, Occidental Petroleum and Paramount Global.In addition to those eight investees, Berkshire owns 100% of BNSF and 92% of BH Energy, each with earnings that exceed the $3 billion mark noted above ($5.9 billion at BNSF and$4.3 billion at BHE). Were these companies publicly-owned, they would replace two present members of the 500. All told, our ten controlled and non-controlled behemoths leave Berkshire more broadly aligned with the country’s economic future than is the case at any other U.S. company. (This calculation leaves aside “fiduciary” operations such as pension funds and investment companies.) In addition, Berkshire’s insurance operation, though conducted through many individually-managed subsidiaries, has a value comparable to BNSF or BHE.As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses. We will also avoid behavior that could result in any uncomfortable cash needs at inconvenient times, including financial panics and unprecedented insurance losses. Our CEO will always be the Chief Risk Officer – a task it is irresponsible to delegate. Additionally, our future CEOs will have a significant part of their net worth in Berkshire shares, bought with their own money. And yes, our shareholders will continue to save and prosper by retaining earnings.At Berkshire, there will be no finish line.Some Surprising Facts About Federal TaxesDuring the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion.Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than useless. Our job is to manage Berkshire’s operations and finances in a manner that will achieve an acceptable result over time and that will preserve the company’s unmatched staying power when financial panics or severe worldwide recessions occur. Berkshire also offers some modest protection from runaway inflation, but this attribute is far from perfect. Huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences.The $32 trillion of revenue was garnered by the Treasury through individual income taxes (48%), social security and related receipts (3412%), corporate income tax payments (812%) and a wide variety of lesser levies. Berkshire’s contribution via the corporate income tax was $32 billion during the decade, almost exactly a tenth of 1% of all money that the Treasury collected.And that means – brace yourself – had there been roughly 1,000 taxpayers in the U.S. matching Berkshire’s payments, no other businesses nor any of the country’s 131 million households would have needed to pay any taxes to the federal government. Not a dime.* * * * * * * * * * * *Millions, billions, trillions – we all know the words, but the sums involved are almost impossible to comprehend. Let’s put physical dimensions to the numbers:- If you convert $1 million into newly-printed $100 bills, you will have a stack that reaches your chest.- Perform the same exercise with $1 billion – this is getting exciting! – and the stack reaches about 34 of a mile into the sky.- Finally, imagine piling up $32 billion, the total of Berkshire’s 2012-21 federal income tax payments. Now the stack grows to more than 21 miles in height, about three times the level at which commercial airplanes usually cruise.When it comes to federal taxes, individuals who own Berkshire can unequivocally state “I gave at the office.”* * * * * * * * * * * *At Berkshire we hope and expect to pay much more in taxes during the next decade. We owe the country no less: America’s dynamism has made a huge contribution to whatever success Berkshire has achieved – a contribution Berkshire will always need. We count on the American Tailwind and, though it has been becalmed from time to time, its propelling force has always returned.I have been investing for 80 years – more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant – almost enthusiasm – for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America. And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future.Nothing Beats Having a Great PartnerCharlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated.Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast:- The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.- If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.- All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.- If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results.- Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.- You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest.- Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.- A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that.- Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time.- Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying.- There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.- You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich.- You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.- Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never.- Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.”And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh.* * * * * * * * * * * *I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own:   Find   a   very   smart   high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says.A Family Gathering in OmahaCharlie and I are shameless. Last year, at our first shareholder get-together in three years, we greeted you with our usual commercial hustle.From the opening bell, we went straight for your wallet. In short order, our See’s kiosk sold you eleven tons of nourishing peanut brittle and chocolates. In our P.T. Barnum pitch, we promised you longevity. After all, what else but candy from See’s could account for Charlie and me making it to 99 and 92?I know you can’t wait to hear the specifics of last year’s hustle.On Friday, the doors were open from noon until 5 p.m., and our candy counters rang up 2,690 individual sales. On Saturday, See’s registered an additional 3,931 transactions between 7 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., despite the fact that 612 of the 912 operating hours occurred while our movie and the question-and-answer session were limiting commercial traffic.Do the math: See’s rang up about 10 sales per minute during its prime operating time (racking up $400,309 of volume during the two days), with all the goods purchased at a single location selling products that haven’t been materially altered in 101 years. What worked for See’s in the days of Henry Ford’s model T works now.* * * * * * * * * * * *Charlie, I, and the entire Berkshire bunch look forward to seeing you in Omaha on May 5-6. We will have a good time and so will you.February 25, 2023 Warren E. 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brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623216437,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142429446?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 13:27","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"China to reform bank deposit rates pricing regime, set new ceilings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142429446","media":"Reuters","summary":"BEIJING/SHANGHAI, June 9 (Reuters) - China plans to reform the way banks calculate deposit rates, se","content":"<p>BEIJING/SHANGHAI, June 9 (Reuters) - China plans to reform the way banks calculate deposit rates, setting new ceilings of up to 75 basis points above the  benchmark rate for some lenders, sources said.</p><p>Authorities plan to allow banks to set upper limits on deposit rates by adding basis points to the benchmark rate, a shift from the current practice of multiplying the benchmark rate, the sources said.</p><p>All banks will be allowed to add up to 20 basis points (bps) to the benchmark rate on demand deposits and small Chinese banks and foreign banks will be permitted to add up to 75 bps to the benchmark rate on time deposit rates, they said.</p><p>Under the new pricing methods, the ceiling on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-year fixed deposit rate will remain unchanged, at 2.25%, while the ceiling on fixed deposit rates over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year will be lowered, the sources added.</p><p>The move will help promote interest rate liberalisation and help slightly lower banks' funding costs, they said. It was not clear when the change would take effect.</p><p>The People's Bank of China (PBOC) did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment.</p><p>In October 2015, the PBOC scrapped the ceiling on bank deposit rates, which are still constrained by its window guidance and pricing mechanism. The PBOC has kept the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 1.5% since then.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China to reform bank deposit rates pricing regime, set new ceilings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina to reform bank deposit rates pricing regime, set new ceilings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-09 13:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING/SHANGHAI, June 9 (Reuters) - China plans to reform the way banks calculate deposit rates, setting new ceilings of up to 75 basis points above the  benchmark rate for some lenders, sources said.</p><p>Authorities plan to allow banks to set upper limits on deposit rates by adding basis points to the benchmark rate, a shift from the current practice of multiplying the benchmark rate, the sources said.</p><p>All banks will be allowed to add up to 20 basis points (bps) to the benchmark rate on demand deposits and small Chinese banks and foreign banks will be permitted to add up to 75 bps to the benchmark rate on time deposit rates, they said.</p><p>Under the new pricing methods, the ceiling on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-year fixed deposit rate will remain unchanged, at 2.25%, while the ceiling on fixed deposit rates over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year will be lowered, the sources added.</p><p>The move will help promote interest rate liberalisation and help slightly lower banks' funding costs, they said. It was not clear when the change would take effect.</p><p>The People's Bank of China (PBOC) did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment.</p><p>In October 2015, the PBOC scrapped the ceiling on bank deposit rates, which are still constrained by its window guidance and pricing mechanism. The PBOC has kept the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 1.5% since then.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAAS":"中汽系统"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142429446","content_text":"BEIJING/SHANGHAI, June 9 (Reuters) - China plans to reform the way banks calculate deposit rates, setting new ceilings of up to 75 basis points above the  benchmark rate for some lenders, sources said.Authorities plan to allow banks to set upper limits on deposit rates by adding basis points to the benchmark rate, a shift from the current practice of multiplying the benchmark rate, the sources said.All banks will be allowed to add up to 20 basis points (bps) to the benchmark rate on demand deposits and small Chinese banks and foreign banks will be permitted to add up to 75 bps to the benchmark rate on time deposit rates, they said.Under the new pricing methods, the ceiling on the one-year fixed deposit rate will remain unchanged, at 2.25%, while the ceiling on fixed deposit rates over one year will be lowered, the sources added.The move will help promote interest rate liberalisation and help slightly lower banks' funding costs, they said. It was not clear when the change would take effect.The People's Bank of China (PBOC) did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment.In October 2015, the PBOC scrapped the ceiling on bank deposit rates, which are still constrained by its window guidance and pricing mechanism. The PBOC has kept the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 1.5% since then.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAAS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184013823,"gmtCreate":1623677829762,"gmtModify":1704208422511,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583803140079308","authorIdStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184013823","repostId":"1167257883","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183639152,"gmtCreate":1623327179776,"gmtModify":1704200939814,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583803140079308","authorIdStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Worth watching&nbsp;","listText":"Worth watching&nbsp;","text":"Worth watching","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183639152","repostId":"1131628976","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180436311,"gmtCreate":1623218167633,"gmtModify":1704198595752,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583803140079308","authorIdStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180436311","repostId":"2142294919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180433189,"gmtCreate":1623217960841,"gmtModify":1704198592811,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583803140079308","authorIdStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180433189","repostId":"1183830906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183830906","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623216866,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183830906?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-09 13:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood Sells Snapchat, DocuSign For Second Straight Day, Buys Spotify","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183830906","media":"benzinga","summary":"Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Monday booked profit in DocuSign Inc for a second strai","content":"<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Monday booked profit in DocuSign Inc for a second straight day, after boosting confidence in the e-signature company's ability to draw more customers.Ark ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21485239/cathie-wood-sells-snapchat-docusign-for-second-straight-day-buys-spotify\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood Sells Snapchat, DocuSign For Second Straight Day, Buys Spotify</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood Sells Snapchat, DocuSign For Second Straight Day, Buys Spotify\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 13:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21485239/cathie-wood-sells-snapchat-docusign-for-second-straight-day-buys-spotify><strong>benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Monday booked profit in DocuSign Inc for a second straight day, after boosting confidence in the e-signature company's ability to draw more customers.Ark ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21485239/cathie-wood-sells-snapchat-docusign-for-second-straight-day-buys-spotify\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A.","SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/21/06/21485239/cathie-wood-sells-snapchat-docusign-for-second-straight-day-buys-spotify","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183830906","content_text":"Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Monday booked profit in DocuSign Inc for a second straight day, after boosting confidence in the e-signature company's ability to draw more customers.Ark Invest sold 46,938 shares, estimated to be worth about $11.37 million, in DocuSign as shares of the San Francisco, California-based company closed 0.56% higher at $242.32 on Tuesday. Shares of DocuSign have risen about 4% since Friday.Wood's firm said on Friday, after market hours, DocuSignappears to be gaining tractionin international markets and the growth in its Agreement Cloud amid COVID-19 is not a temporary shift.Wood’s firm sold the shares in DocuSign via the Ark Innovation ETF . Ark also holds a stake in the company via the Ark Next Generation Internet ETF.The popular investment firm’s holding in DocuSign, whose worth is estimated to be about $592.9 million based on Tuesday’s closing price,  is now down to 2.46 million shares.The investment firm also sold 77,407 shares, estimated to be worth about $4.65 million, in Snapchat parent Snap Inc .Shares of the social media company closed 1.99% lower at $60.15 on Tuesday.Wood’s firm sold the shares in Snap via ARKW and also holds a stake in the company via the Ark Fintech Innovation ETF . Ark’s stake in Snap is now down to 2.75 million shares, lowering its estimated value to about $168.55 million, as of Tuesday.The New York-based investment firm also bought 60,383 shares, estimated to be worth $14.64 million, in Spotify Technology , its second straight buy in the digital music streaming company.Shares of Spotify closed marginally down at $242.51 on Tuesday.ARKK made the purchase. It held about 3.12 million shares, worth about $758.4 million, in the company ahead of Tuesday's trade. ARKW too has a stake in Spotify.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNAP":0.9,"SPOT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117138966,"gmtCreate":1623121232455,"gmtModify":1704196521262,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583803140079308","authorIdStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for a catalyst&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for a catalyst&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for a catalyst","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117138966","repostId":"2141342255","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114191575,"gmtCreate":1623055641897,"gmtModify":1704195129950,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583803140079308","authorIdStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good case for both sides","listText":"Good case for both sides","text":"Good case for both sides","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114191575","repostId":"1112319097","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166899426,"gmtCreate":1624000059965,"gmtModify":1703826188455,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583803140079308","authorIdStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bottoming&nbsp;","listText":"Bottoming&nbsp;","text":"Bottoming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166899426","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175693382?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183250505,"gmtCreate":1623333561307,"gmtModify":1704201145776,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583803140079308","authorIdStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ballistic&nbsp;","listText":"Ballistic&nbsp;","text":"Ballistic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183250505","repostId":"1128810191","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940285030,"gmtCreate":1677968320321,"gmtModify":1677968323810,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583803140079308","authorIdStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PBW\">$Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF(PBW)$&nbsp;</a>Sustainable energy stock... green world&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PBW\">$Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF(PBW)$&nbsp;</a>Sustainable energy stock... green world&nbsp;","text":"$Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF(PBW)$ Sustainable energy stock... green world","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/955acc967e8bb63997417f9b4be9d1e8","width":"1284","height":"2517"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940285030","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940282449,"gmtCreate":1677968254881,"gmtModify":1677968260502,"author":{"id":"3583803140079308","authorId":"3583803140079308","name":"TVijay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d683e149ffed930daa8bb7dd999f14a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583803140079308","authorIdStr":"3583803140079308"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940282449","repostId":"1188147335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188147335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677896169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188147335?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-04 10:16","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188147335","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid Oc","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy The Market Could Drop By Another 20%-25%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-04 10:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4584309-why-the-market-could-drop-more","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188147335","content_text":"SummaryWe've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October.Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months.However, I'm highly skeptical that the worst is behind us.Unfortunately, inflation remains more persistent than anticipated, the Fed should continue tightening, and the economy will likely worsen as we advance.Furthermore, stocks are not cheap, and my \"all-in\" bear market bottom target remains 3,000-3,200, roughly 20%-25% lower from here.The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) had an excellent rally from its mid-October bottom at 3,500. After calling the bottom in my \"Stocks Are Heading Higher\" article, I indicated that the likely top for the rally would arrive in the 4,000-4,200. The market recently topped out around 4,200, after a textbook 20% bear market rally. Now, the SPX is at another critical inflection point, and despite a 6% correction from the recent high, the market could go significantly lower as we advance in the coming months. In addition to deteriorating technical conditions, inflation remains persistent.Moreover, we're seeing worsening economic indicators, implying that the increased rate environment reflects poorly on the economy. Furthermore, due to the persistent inflation problem, the Fed will probably continue raising the benchmark rate, remaining relatively hawkish. Consumer sentiment and other crucial consumer-related readings will likely worsen along with the labor market leading to more pain on Main Street. As corporate profits worsen in the near term, the stock market will probably head lower, causing some panic on Wall Street in the coming months.SPX - At Another Inflection PointSPX(StockCharts.com)The SPX is around critical support at 3,940 - 4,000, coinciding with the 50, and the 200-day moving averages. If the SPX decisively breaks down below this crucial support level, the market could swiftly drop to 3,800 support. If the 3,800 support breaks down, the market will likely retest 3,500 and move lower toward my long-term bear market bottom level at 3,000-3,200. This drop would equate to approximately 20-25% more downside from current levels. Unfortunately, due to the deteriorating fundamental factors surrounding the economy, there's a high probability that the SPX will revisit the 3,500 - 3,000 before achieving a true bottom. The peak-to-trough decline (4,800 to 3,000) would equate to a drop of approximately 38%, easily comparable to previous bear markets in recent history.There's a ChanceAlthough the probability is relatively low, SPX's support could hold here, and we may see the market rebound and move higher. However, due to the challenging macroeconomic environment, the near-term upside is likely limited, and the path of least resistance is to the downside now. Also, it's premature to call an end to the bear market, and I am highly skeptical that a new bull market began in October and that the SPX will reach new highs soon.Why Inflation Remains a Big ProblemCPI InflationCPI(TradingEconomics.com )Inflation peaked at around 9% last year, and the Fed has raised rates significantly, utilizing other programs like QT to bring the inflation problem under control. There's been some success as inflation has come down from the ultra-high levels not seen in the last forty years. Nevertheless, inflation is still running red hot above 6%, while the Fed's target rate remains at 2%. Moreover, after several months of constructive inflation readings, January's CPI came in hotter than expected.The Recent CPI ReportCPI (January)(Investing.com )The market expected a drop to 6.2%, but the CPI came in at 6.4%, missing estimates and barely budging from the prior month's reading of 6.5%. Moreover, it's not just the CPI. Other critical inflation readings like the PCE also reversed, coming in hotter than anticipated.PCE InflationPCE inflation(Investing.com )The PCE inflation readings were substantially higher than expected. We see the PCE at 5.4% vs. the expected 5%. Moreover, the PCE was even higher than the previous month's 5.3% reading. So, inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and this trend of persistently higher-than-expected inflation could continue. Furthermore, the PCE reading is critical as it's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing tighter monetary for longer, which is a negative development for stocks and other risk assets.Is the Fed Doing Too Much or Not Enough?Unfortunately, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Remember all that talk about inflation being a transitory phenomenon and everything should be fine? I remember this specific rhetoric as the Fed printed money like there was no tomorrow. I always expressed that inflation would not be as \"transitory\" as the Fed claimed and that the economy would suffer significantly. Well, here we are. The Fed is battling highly persistent inflation, anything but transitory, and the economy is worsening considerably.The Worsening EconomyHave you seen the recent economic readings? I see many problems, and they're not likely to go away anytime soon. Let's put inflation aside and look at some troubling critical economic data that's come out recently.Just from the start of February, we've seenISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, consumer expectations, industrial production, building, housing, GDP, consumer confidence, oil inventories, and other crucial data points come in worse than expected. Moreover, the worse-than-expected data is coming in below lowered estimates, and even most of the better-than-anticipated data does not look great.Is the Labor Market an Exception?Jobs data(Investing.com)The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in significantly better than expected. The economy added 517K jobs while expectations were for 185K. The unemployment rate also dropped to a rock bottom of 3.4%. So, how can the economy worsen while the labor market remains this robust? First, the labor market data is a lagging indicator, not indicative of future results. Secondly, the labor market appeared very strong in other cycles just before the worst part of a downturn began. And thirdly, the labor market may be one of the last dominoes standing, and when it falls, it could drag the stock market substantially lower. We've recently seen numerous companies reporting mass layoffs. These firings take time to filter through the system and should impact payroll reports negatively in the coming months. Moreover, not all jobs are the same. As major corporations cut hundreds of thousands of relatively high-paying jobs to improve efficiency and increase profitability, those fortunate enough to find new jobs will likely fill lower-paying positions. As this phenomenon persists, millions of consumers could suffer due to being pinched from multiple sides by high inflation and lower wages.Valuations Are Not Cheap AnymoreWe've seen many companies' earnings stagnate or decline in recent quarters. As the consumer continues to soften, lower earnings could continue as we advance in the near/intermediate term. Also, we've seen many stocks appreciate considerably in the recent rally. Thus, while many valuations appeared cheap and attractive, with the SPX around 3,500, many companies are not cheap anymore and could become even more expensive as earnings and future estimates stumble in the coming months.Shiller P/E RatioShiller P/E(multpl.com)We've seen the Shiller P/E (cyclically adjusted \"CAPE\") ratio come down some from the bubble days of November 2021. However, at around 29, the CAPE is still highly elevated, implying that most stocks are not cheap and likely have more room to fall as we grind through this bear market. The historical mean for the CAPE is 17, roughly 40% below its current level. If the CAPE reverts to its mean in this bear market, we could see the SPX bottom around 2,400. However, this ultra-bearish 50% peak-to-trough decline scenario is not a high-probability event due to the Fed and other factors. Nevertheless, the CAPE should move lower before going higher again, and my estimate for a bottom is around the 22-23 level, roughly in line with the 3,000-3,200 level in the SPX.The Bottom LineWe've seen a textbook 20% bear market rally lift stocks from the profoundly oversold 3,500 level in the SPX. Many stocks have appreciated considerably, some by 100% or more in this relatively short time frame. However, the rally ended around 4,200 due to the lack of constructive catalysts capable of propelling stocks into a new bull market. Moreover, we see persistently high inflation, and the recent progress is overshadowed by the higher-than-anticipated inflation results last month. Therefore, the Fed will likely continue raising interest rates and could remain hawkish for longer as the inflation problem persists.Moreover, critical economic indicators and many corporate profits continue worsening, implying more pain ahead for Main Street and Wall Street. Furthermore, most stocks are not cheap here. Thus, many could drop precipitously if the selling accelerates. If SPX breaks below support (decisively) around 4,000, it could cascade to 3,800 next and 3,500 or lower afterward. My bear market bottom \"all-in\" buy-in range remains around 3,000-3,200, roughly 20-25% below current levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}