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2021-07-25

Good article, like and comment please

Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider

2021-07-26

Help. Like please

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2021-07-27

Hi help like please

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2021-07-24

Only the value of bitcoin that matters for tesla earnings

Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.

2021-07-24

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2022-06-04

$Tencent Music(TME)$[smile]

2022-06-15

$Tencent Music(TME)$[lovely]

2021-07-26

$Apple(AAPL)$position

2021-07-24

Like and comments please

Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.

2021-07-24

Thanks for the comment

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks

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stocks</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9051006391\" target=\"_blank\">Day3 Education：5 types of orders for US stock trading</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9051006391\" target=\"_blank\">DAY4 Education：Finish your order by useful functions</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9058984266\" target=\"_blank\">Day5 Education： Fundamental investing strategies</a>Today, I will continue to introduce the second step: how to choose a good industry and","listText":"Hey, tigers:We have introduced the first and second step of the classic strategies.Let’s review first，Let's review the content of the previous days.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9027801528\" target=\"_blank\">DAY1：5 practical knowledge of US stocks</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9027735145\" target=\"_blank\">DAY 2 Education：two directions of US stocks</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9051006391\" target=\"_blank\">Day3 Education：5 types of orders for US stock trading</a><a 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Inc.(QD)$[Angry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052431942","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052433675,"gmtCreate":1655201336997,"gmtModify":1676535581491,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052433675","repostId":"9022524674","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9022524674,"gmtCreate":1653552819200,"gmtModify":1676535303082,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Time Travel with Tiger, Join the Memorabilia Adventure Now!!!","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi\n \n","listText":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","text":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022524674","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"97af7069aa6440eab7c85601f72b41b1","tweetId":"9022524674","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/5836ee3f387702302012189230/1IRQdazMc4YA.mp4","poster":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2462b20b2a9a2483ae56cbb54dcb2a7"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059638986,"gmtCreate":1654350996145,"gmtModify":1676535434847,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>[Eye]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>[Eye]&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$[Eye]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dde8a3cb87c7475d000964a33ae378f9","width":"1080","height":"3283"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059638986","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059631790,"gmtCreate":1654350965810,"gmtModify":1676535434847,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$Tencent Music(TME)$</a>[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$Tencent Music(TME)$</a>[smile]&nbsp;","text":"$Tencent Music(TME)$[smile]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8742618456b8fdf0ba18a8cbfc077a57","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059631790","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027438808,"gmtCreate":1654063363104,"gmtModify":1676535388102,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027438808","repostId":"2239498991","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2239498991","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654062578,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2239498991?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-01 13:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Smashing SBC Myths","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2239498991","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Palantir’s (NYSE:PLTR) stock-based compensation (“SBC”) has always been a controversial topic among ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Palantir’s</b> (NYSE:PLTR) stock-based compensation (“SBC”) has always been a controversial topic among shareholders. On the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> hand, SBC helps PLTR achieve positive cash flows. On the other hand, it has contributed to the company’s 18-year no-profit streak.</p><p>We know that Palantir’s GAAP earnings have always been negative, but the company usually reports positive adjusted earnings. The question is whether GAAP earnings or adjusted earnings better reflect the company’s operating performance. In this article I argue that it’s the former, and that Palantir is best viewed as an unprofitable company. I rate its stock a hold rather than a sell, though, because it does have enough revenue growth to eventually overcome the effects of SBC.</p><h2>How Palantir’s SBC Facilitates Positive Cash Flows</h2><p>SBC is one of the tools Palantir uses to achieve positive cash flows. Many Palantir employees believe in the company, and are willing to accept stock in lieu of extra salary. As a result, Palantir typically delivers positive CFO and negative earnings side by side. The picture is a little more complicated than just saying that “SBC overwhelms Palantir’s cash flows.” In addition to its usually negative GAAP earnings, Palantir also reports adjusted earnings–those have been positive in recent quarters. So, we really need to take a deep look at SBC and whether earnings are positive after accounting for it.</p><p>Palantir’s reported net income for Q1 was $-101 million. Add back $149 million in SBC, and you end up with $48 million in profit. So, SBC is definitely keeping GAAP profits at bay. However, we also know that Palantir’s Q1 news release listed $0.02 in positive adjusted earnings, so we have to investigate further. Maybe Palantir’s standards are better than those of the FASB.</p><h2>Where Palantir’s SBC is Coming From</h2><p>The first thing you need to know about SBC is that there isn’t just “one kind.” SBC can take a number of different forms:</p><ul><li><p>Immediate stock grants.</p></li><li><p>Stock options triggered on a certain vesting date.</p></li><li><p>Stock options triggered when an employee hits certain performance targets (common with upper management).</p></li></ul><p>In Palantir’s case, two types of stock awards are mentioned for the period for the first quarter:</p><ul><li><p>Exercise of stock options - 6.6 million shares.</p></li><li><p>Issuance of stock after vesting of RSUs - 11.7 million shares</p></li></ul><p>These are listed separately from SBC on PLTR’s statement of changes of equity. It appears that the counts above are for past options exercised in the quarter, while the SBC number is for new shares granted. Nevertheless, these line items do tell us where Palantir’s SBC is coming from: mainly, its stock options, not immediate grants.</p><p>We know from an SEC filing that Palantir registered 101.3 million shares at the start of the first quarter. At today’s prices they’d be worth about $850 million. Palantir says that they will be granted over the next three years. It appears, then, that the $149 million in SBC recorded in the second quarter is just the beginning of $283 million worth of SBC per year over the next few years.</p><h2>Financial Forecast</h2><p>If Palantir is going to be doing $283 million in annual SBC over the next three years, then GAAP profits will be hard to come by. Alex Karp said on PLTR’s recent earnings call that only $9 million worth of new shares would be issued this year. It may be that only $9 million worth of new shares will be issued, but the projected SBC implies that $850 million or so worth of shares will be given out. Shares don’t have to be issued immediately in order for SBC expenses to be recorded, as SBC cost is recorded when granted, not when shares vest. So, we’ll take $283 million, not $9 million, as our estimate of average SBC over the next three years.</p><p>If you grow Palantir’s cash from operations (“CFO”) at 31% per year (PLTR’s growth target), you get the following FCF numbers:</p><ul><li><p>This year: $252 million.</p></li><li><p>Year 1: $330 million.</p></li><li><p>Year 2: $432 million.</p></li><li><p>Year 3: $566 million.</p></li></ul><p>That looks like impressive growth. But remember that the real return to shareholders has to account for SBC. With $283 million worth of SBC per year, these numbers all go lower. If $283 million in SBC is taken added back to CFO every single year, then the above CFO forecast is reduced as follows:</p><ul><li><p>This year: $-31 million.</p></li><li><p>Year 1: $47 million.</p></li><li><p>Year 2: $149 million.</p></li><li><p>Year 3: $283 million.</p></li></ul><p>The above is simply how much CFO is reduced by subtracting the forecasted amount of SBC. To get all the way to net income, you need to subtract other non-cash costs as well. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Palantir had $-498 million in negative net income in the trailing 12-month period. Included in that was $16 million in depreciation, a $10.3 million increase in accounts payable, and $78 million in “other operating activities.” If you throw all of those costs on top of $283 million in annual SBC, then you don’t get to positive net income until year 2 in my forecast above.</p><p>That’s potentially a problem. In a recent article, I wrote that PLTR’s fair value was between $5.91 and $13.58. My reasoning was based on a discounted cash flow analysis: the PV of five years’ cash flows for PLTR works out to $5.91 or $13.58 depending on the sustainable growth rate. However, the model I built in that article was quite literally a discounted cash flow model: it was based on FCF. Had I used net income or even just FCF adjusted for SBC, the present value would have been far lower.</p><h2>Where do Palantir’s Positive Adjusted Earnings Come From?</h2><p>As we’ve seen, Palantir’s SBC has been preventing it from achieving GAAP profits. That will likely be the case until at least 2024. However, we know that PLTR is reporting positive adjusted earnings–$0.02 worth in the most recent quarter. Before we can really say that Palantir is unprofitable, we should look at what those adjusted earnings consist of. Sometimes companies will take mark-to-market stock losses out of GAAP earnings, and that’s a valid adjustment, because short term stock fluctuations have nothing to do with operating performance. If Palantir has some of these “costs” in the picture, then maybe it’s not as unprofitable as it looks.</p><p>Unfortunately, it appears that PLTR’s “positive adjusted earnings” is mostly just a matter of adding SBC back to net income. In the most recent quarter, the company reported $-101 million in GAAP earnings, $149 million in SBC, and $44 million in adjusted earnings. The adjusted figure is almost exactly what you’d get by adding SBC back to net income. Additionally, Palantir said in its recent quarterly report that it adds SBC back to adjusted earnings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de31be11a5827304ccc84dc62dfa1c42\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir</p><p>This is a problem because SBC is not one of the non-cash charges you can just ignore. Many value investors think that short term stock fluctuations are meaningless, nobody thinks that an ever-growing share count is. The higher the number of shares, the smaller each shareholder’s percentage ownership. That’s a real cost. So, Palantir isn’t “adjusting” for questionable accounting rules. The FASB is right in forcing companies to subtract SBC from net income.</p><p>There is perhaps one silver lining here:</p><p>Palantir’s shares for the next three years’ worth of SBC have already been issued. As I mentioned earlier, the company registered about 100 million shares in January, mainly for future stock awards. These shares aren’t in the public float yet, but they’re already part of shares outstanding. So, the EPS-reducing effect of the newly issued shares has already occurred. This means that investors won’t have to cope with seeing EPS mysteriously decline as free cash flow rises. Unfortunately, if Palantir’s employees sell their shares when they vest, then that will create extra selling pressure that could send the stock lower. Perhaps, then, the really meaningful dilution (dilution of the public float) is yet to take place.</p><h2>Risks and Challenges</h2><p>So far, I have developed a neutral thesis on Palantir. This is a company with pretty obvious strengths and obvious weaknesses, and it’s hard to have a strong opinion on it when each virtue is countered by an equivalent vice.</p><p>Indeed, both bulls and bears have many risks and challenges to be mindful of.</p><p>Bulls need to be wary of any future deceleration. Palantir’s biggest strength right now is that it still has high revenue growth even amid 2022’s tech slowdown. In their most recent quarters, <b>Meta</b> (FB) and <b>Apple</b> (AAPL) both experienced single-digit revenue growth, PLTR was still all the way up at 31%, just like in the glory days of early 2021. Palantir is one of the few tech stocks that’s still delivering the growth investors want from tech stocks, which is why deceleration is so risky. If Palantir stops growing then SBC and other cost factors become bigger and bigger issues, because they are no longer offset by high revenue growth. So, deceleration is a huge risk to Palantir bulls.</p><p>Bears (i.e., shorts) on the other hand need to be wary of Palantir’s resilience. PLTR has a lot of recurring revenue locked in from government contracts that last 3.5 years on average. This is a company with more revenue stability than average, so there is always the potential for upside surprises–particularly if commercial growth accelerates. Palantir gets a stable “base” of revenue from its long-term government contracts, along with growth potential from its rising commercial client base. So, the company could continue delivering on the top line for a long time.</p><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>Taking everything into account, we can say this about Palantir’s stock-based compensation:</p><p>It is a real, material cost. SBC is not something that investors can ignore. It dilutes equity and makes existing shareholders’ ownership stake smaller. So, Palantir’s GAAP earnings are more correct than its adjusted earnings. SBC is not a cost you can write off, so PLTR is, at the end of the day, unprofitable.</p><p>Does that mean that the stock is a bad buy?</p><p>Not necessarily. Its revenue growth is still strong, and that growth could someday overpower the increases in the share count. That’s one reason for optimism. However, the conclusion is inescapable: Palantir is losing money. And it probably will continue doing so until SBC is brought under control.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Smashing SBC Myths</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Smashing SBC Myths\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-01 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515351-palantir-smashing-stock-based-compensation-myths><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir’s (NYSE:PLTR) stock-based compensation (“SBC”) has always been a controversial topic among shareholders. On the one hand, SBC helps PLTR achieve positive cash flows. On the other hand, it has...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515351-palantir-smashing-stock-based-compensation-myths\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4515351-palantir-smashing-stock-based-compensation-myths","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2239498991","content_text":"Palantir’s (NYSE:PLTR) stock-based compensation (“SBC”) has always been a controversial topic among shareholders. On the one hand, SBC helps PLTR achieve positive cash flows. On the other hand, it has contributed to the company’s 18-year no-profit streak.We know that Palantir’s GAAP earnings have always been negative, but the company usually reports positive adjusted earnings. The question is whether GAAP earnings or adjusted earnings better reflect the company’s operating performance. In this article I argue that it’s the former, and that Palantir is best viewed as an unprofitable company. I rate its stock a hold rather than a sell, though, because it does have enough revenue growth to eventually overcome the effects of SBC.How Palantir’s SBC Facilitates Positive Cash FlowsSBC is one of the tools Palantir uses to achieve positive cash flows. Many Palantir employees believe in the company, and are willing to accept stock in lieu of extra salary. As a result, Palantir typically delivers positive CFO and negative earnings side by side. The picture is a little more complicated than just saying that “SBC overwhelms Palantir’s cash flows.” In addition to its usually negative GAAP earnings, Palantir also reports adjusted earnings–those have been positive in recent quarters. So, we really need to take a deep look at SBC and whether earnings are positive after accounting for it.Palantir’s reported net income for Q1 was $-101 million. Add back $149 million in SBC, and you end up with $48 million in profit. So, SBC is definitely keeping GAAP profits at bay. However, we also know that Palantir’s Q1 news release listed $0.02 in positive adjusted earnings, so we have to investigate further. Maybe Palantir’s standards are better than those of the FASB.Where Palantir’s SBC is Coming FromThe first thing you need to know about SBC is that there isn’t just “one kind.” SBC can take a number of different forms:Immediate stock grants.Stock options triggered on a certain vesting date.Stock options triggered when an employee hits certain performance targets (common with upper management).In Palantir’s case, two types of stock awards are mentioned for the period for the first quarter:Exercise of stock options - 6.6 million shares.Issuance of stock after vesting of RSUs - 11.7 million sharesThese are listed separately from SBC on PLTR’s statement of changes of equity. It appears that the counts above are for past options exercised in the quarter, while the SBC number is for new shares granted. Nevertheless, these line items do tell us where Palantir’s SBC is coming from: mainly, its stock options, not immediate grants.We know from an SEC filing that Palantir registered 101.3 million shares at the start of the first quarter. At today’s prices they’d be worth about $850 million. Palantir says that they will be granted over the next three years. It appears, then, that the $149 million in SBC recorded in the second quarter is just the beginning of $283 million worth of SBC per year over the next few years.Financial ForecastIf Palantir is going to be doing $283 million in annual SBC over the next three years, then GAAP profits will be hard to come by. Alex Karp said on PLTR’s recent earnings call that only $9 million worth of new shares would be issued this year. It may be that only $9 million worth of new shares will be issued, but the projected SBC implies that $850 million or so worth of shares will be given out. Shares don’t have to be issued immediately in order for SBC expenses to be recorded, as SBC cost is recorded when granted, not when shares vest. So, we’ll take $283 million, not $9 million, as our estimate of average SBC over the next three years.If you grow Palantir’s cash from operations (“CFO”) at 31% per year (PLTR’s growth target), you get the following FCF numbers:This year: $252 million.Year 1: $330 million.Year 2: $432 million.Year 3: $566 million.That looks like impressive growth. But remember that the real return to shareholders has to account for SBC. With $283 million worth of SBC per year, these numbers all go lower. If $283 million in SBC is taken added back to CFO every single year, then the above CFO forecast is reduced as follows:This year: $-31 million.Year 1: $47 million.Year 2: $149 million.Year 3: $283 million.The above is simply how much CFO is reduced by subtracting the forecasted amount of SBC. To get all the way to net income, you need to subtract other non-cash costs as well. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Palantir had $-498 million in negative net income in the trailing 12-month period. Included in that was $16 million in depreciation, a $10.3 million increase in accounts payable, and $78 million in “other operating activities.” If you throw all of those costs on top of $283 million in annual SBC, then you don’t get to positive net income until year 2 in my forecast above.That’s potentially a problem. In a recent article, I wrote that PLTR’s fair value was between $5.91 and $13.58. My reasoning was based on a discounted cash flow analysis: the PV of five years’ cash flows for PLTR works out to $5.91 or $13.58 depending on the sustainable growth rate. However, the model I built in that article was quite literally a discounted cash flow model: it was based on FCF. Had I used net income or even just FCF adjusted for SBC, the present value would have been far lower.Where do Palantir’s Positive Adjusted Earnings Come From?As we’ve seen, Palantir’s SBC has been preventing it from achieving GAAP profits. That will likely be the case until at least 2024. However, we know that PLTR is reporting positive adjusted earnings–$0.02 worth in the most recent quarter. Before we can really say that Palantir is unprofitable, we should look at what those adjusted earnings consist of. Sometimes companies will take mark-to-market stock losses out of GAAP earnings, and that’s a valid adjustment, because short term stock fluctuations have nothing to do with operating performance. If Palantir has some of these “costs” in the picture, then maybe it’s not as unprofitable as it looks.Unfortunately, it appears that PLTR’s “positive adjusted earnings” is mostly just a matter of adding SBC back to net income. In the most recent quarter, the company reported $-101 million in GAAP earnings, $149 million in SBC, and $44 million in adjusted earnings. The adjusted figure is almost exactly what you’d get by adding SBC back to net income. Additionally, Palantir said in its recent quarterly report that it adds SBC back to adjusted earnings.PalantirThis is a problem because SBC is not one of the non-cash charges you can just ignore. Many value investors think that short term stock fluctuations are meaningless, nobody thinks that an ever-growing share count is. The higher the number of shares, the smaller each shareholder’s percentage ownership. That’s a real cost. So, Palantir isn’t “adjusting” for questionable accounting rules. The FASB is right in forcing companies to subtract SBC from net income.There is perhaps one silver lining here:Palantir’s shares for the next three years’ worth of SBC have already been issued. As I mentioned earlier, the company registered about 100 million shares in January, mainly for future stock awards. These shares aren’t in the public float yet, but they’re already part of shares outstanding. So, the EPS-reducing effect of the newly issued shares has already occurred. This means that investors won’t have to cope with seeing EPS mysteriously decline as free cash flow rises. Unfortunately, if Palantir’s employees sell their shares when they vest, then that will create extra selling pressure that could send the stock lower. Perhaps, then, the really meaningful dilution (dilution of the public float) is yet to take place.Risks and ChallengesSo far, I have developed a neutral thesis on Palantir. This is a company with pretty obvious strengths and obvious weaknesses, and it’s hard to have a strong opinion on it when each virtue is countered by an equivalent vice.Indeed, both bulls and bears have many risks and challenges to be mindful of.Bulls need to be wary of any future deceleration. Palantir’s biggest strength right now is that it still has high revenue growth even amid 2022’s tech slowdown. In their most recent quarters, Meta (FB) and Apple (AAPL) both experienced single-digit revenue growth, PLTR was still all the way up at 31%, just like in the glory days of early 2021. Palantir is one of the few tech stocks that’s still delivering the growth investors want from tech stocks, which is why deceleration is so risky. If Palantir stops growing then SBC and other cost factors become bigger and bigger issues, because they are no longer offset by high revenue growth. So, deceleration is a huge risk to Palantir bulls.Bears (i.e., shorts) on the other hand need to be wary of Palantir’s resilience. PLTR has a lot of recurring revenue locked in from government contracts that last 3.5 years on average. This is a company with more revenue stability than average, so there is always the potential for upside surprises–particularly if commercial growth accelerates. Palantir gets a stable “base” of revenue from its long-term government contracts, along with growth potential from its rising commercial client base. So, the company could continue delivering on the top line for a long time.The Bottom LineTaking everything into account, we can say this about Palantir’s stock-based compensation:It is a real, material cost. SBC is not something that investors can ignore. It dilutes equity and makes existing shareholders’ ownership stake smaller. So, Palantir’s GAAP earnings are more correct than its adjusted earnings. SBC is not a cost you can write off, so PLTR is, at the end of the day, unprofitable.Does that mean that the stock is a bad buy?Not necessarily. Its revenue growth is still strong, and that growth could someday overpower the increases in the share count. That’s one reason for optimism. However, the conclusion is inescapable: Palantir is losing money. And it probably will continue doing so until SBC is brought under control.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024885592,"gmtCreate":1653841825416,"gmtModify":1676535349750,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024885592","repostId":"2238953846","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2238953846","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653811796,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2238953846?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-29 16:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks That Could Easily Turn $10,000 Into $50,000 by 2030","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2238953846","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A 5x return isn't a slam dunk with these stocks. But it's not a farfetched proposition.","content":"<div>\n<p>Quintupling just has a nice ring to it. There's not an investor around who wouldn't like to see their money grow by five times or more.Finding stocks that can achieve the goal is easier said than done...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/28/3-stocks-that-could-easily-turn-10000-into-50000-b/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks That Could Easily Turn $10,000 Into $50,000 by 2030</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks That Could Easily Turn $10,000 Into $50,000 by 2030\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-29 16:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/28/3-stocks-that-could-easily-turn-10000-into-50000-b/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Quintupling just has a nice ring to it. There's not an investor around who wouldn't like to see their money grow by five times or more.Finding stocks that can achieve the goal is easier said than done...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/28/3-stocks-that-could-easily-turn-10000-into-50000-b/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4167":"医疗保健技术","MELI":"MercadoLibre"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/28/3-stocks-that-could-easily-turn-10000-into-50000-b/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2238953846","content_text":"Quintupling just has a nice ring to it. There's not an investor around who wouldn't like to see their money grow by five times or more.Finding stocks that can achieve the goal is easier said than done, though. That's especially the case if you're wanting huge gains within only a few years. But it's not impossible to find promising candidates. Here are three stocks that could easily turn $10,000 into $50,000 by 2030.1. Teladoc HealthTeladoc Health could deliver a 5x return simply by returning to where its shares traded less than a year ago. Since last summer, the telemedicine stock has plunged close to 80%.Of course, getting back to those levels isn't so simple. Teladoc must first convince investors that it's able to deliver strong revenue growth and achieve profitability. I think the company has a good shot at doing both. Despite a huge net loss and reducing its full-year guidance for 2022, Teladoc's business actually appears to be in pretty good shape.That big loss was due to a goodwill impairment primarily related to the acquisition of Livongo. Excluding this write-off, the company's bottom line improved year over year. And although Teladoc's full-year outlook is lower than it was previously, it still expects revenue to grow in the ballpark of 20%.Teladoc continues to win new customers. It's only in the early stages of rolling out the Primary360 virtual primary care service. The company's addressable market is massive -- over $260 billion in the U.S. alone. Teladoc certainly isn't a slam dunk to quintuple by the end of the decade. However, it isn't too far-fetched a proposition at all.2. NovocureTurning $10,000 into $50,000 by 2030 could be too pessimistic a goal for Novocure. Sure, the stock is down more than 60% since last July as the company's revenue growth has slowed. But Novocure has multiple catalysts on the way.The company has already won U.S. regulatory approval for its Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields) device in treating glioblastoma multiforme (an aggressive type of brain cancer) and mesothelioma. However, Novocure thinks that its method of using electric fields to disrupt the division of tumor cells can work in other types of cancer as well.Results from a late-stage study of TTFields in treating non-small cell lung cancer should be announced later this year. In 2023, Novocure expects to report data from pivotal studies targeting ovarian cancer and brain metastases. The following year, results from another phase 3 study of TTFields in treating pancreatic cancer should be available.Novocure estimates that these additional indications represent a market opportunity that's 14 times larger than its current market opportunity in approved indications. If the company's late-stage clinical studies go well, the stock should have a pretty good shot at delivering a 5x return or greater within the next eight years.3. MercadoLibreMercadoLibre is another beaten-down stock that still has tremendous long-term potential. Shares of the Latin American e-commerce leader have dropped close to 60% since the third quarter of 2021. However, MercadoLibre's business continues to perform well.The company generated record net revenue in the first quarter of 2022. It posted a small profit, a huge improvement from the net losses in the previous quarter and in the prior-year period.More importantly, MercadoLibre is only scratching the surface of its opportunity. E-commerce market penetration rates in Latin America remain low. The company's fintech business has a significant growth runway as well. Many people in the countries served by MercadoLibre have no or limited access to traditional financial services.MercadoLibre could also grow by expanding into adjacent markets. Osvaldo Gimenez, CEO of the company's Mercado Pago unit, stated in the Q1 conference call that a pilot of a payroll service is in its early stages. He added, \"We're very excited about the opportunity.\"Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target for MercadoLibre is nearly double its current share price. I think that the company's growth potential in e-commerce, fintech, and new businesses just might enable the stock to turn an initial investment of $10,000 into $50,000 by 2030.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.6,"MELI":0.83,"TDOC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025156591,"gmtCreate":1653644856013,"gmtModify":1676535320293,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$Tencent Music(TME)$</a>[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$Tencent Music(TME)$</a>[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"$Tencent Music(TME)$[Surprised]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2595268e36788f2b8cc6a163ed7ecc7","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025156591","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022712040,"gmtCreate":1653579274380,"gmtModify":1676535308164,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MOMO\">$Hello Group Inc(MOMO)$</a>[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MOMO\">$Hello Group Inc(MOMO)$</a>[smile]&nbsp;","text":"$Hello Group Inc(MOMO)$[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022712040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023790814,"gmtCreate":1652958969638,"gmtModify":1676535196365,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QD\">$Qudian Inc.(QD)$</a>[What]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QD\">$Qudian Inc.(QD)$</a>[What]&nbsp;","text":"$Qudian Inc.(QD)$[What]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023790814","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023790339,"gmtCreate":1652958937321,"gmtModify":1676535196360,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$[Surprised]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/21fa7cc54e0379ed1d5fe906a9abbadf","width":"1080","height":"3501"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023790339","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023345749,"gmtCreate":1652875205381,"gmtModify":1676535178667,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$[Surprised]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a59565c87916879ca1a8c259b184262","width":"1080","height":"3501"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023345749","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":177802397,"gmtCreate":1627192085019,"gmtModify":1703485389988,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good article, like and comment please","listText":"Good article, like and comment please","text":"Good article, like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177802397","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176552691?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>\n <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>\n <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p>\n<p>Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p>\n<p>What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p>\n<p>Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p>\n<p><b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p>\n<p>IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p>\n<p>Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p>\n<p>The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p>\n<p>The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p>\n<p>The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p>\n<p>Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p>\n<p>Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p>\n<p>Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p>\n<p>IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p>\n<p>It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p>\n<p>For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p>\n<p>Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p>\n<p>IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p>\n<p>Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p>\n<p>It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p>\n<p>However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p>\n<p><b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p>\n<p>Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p>\n<blockquote>\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p>\n<p>Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p>\n<p>I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p>\n<p>Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p>\n<p>The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p>\n<p>Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p>\n<p>Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p>\n<p>Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p>\n<p>For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p>\n<p><b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p>\n<p>Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p>\n<p>The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p>\n<p>Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p>\n<p>IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p>\n<p>Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p>\n<p>What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p>\n<p><b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p>\n<p>Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p>\n<p>While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p>\n<p>In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p>\n<p>The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Debt And Dividend</b></p>\n<p>While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p>\n<p>The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p>\n<p>IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p>\n<p><b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p>\n<p>IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p>\n<p>IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p>\n<p>The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p>\n<p>I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p>\n<p><b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p>\n<p>IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p>\n<p>That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p>\n<p>If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p>\n<p>IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p>\n<p>All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p>\n<p>I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 11:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800298943,"gmtCreate":1627303381182,"gmtModify":1703487134696,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help. Like please","listText":"Help. Like please","text":"Help. Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800298943","repostId":"1184014483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809688321,"gmtCreate":1627365679663,"gmtModify":1703488460584,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi help like please","listText":"Hi help like please","text":"Hi help like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809688321","repostId":"1129261868","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174588327,"gmtCreate":1627111436669,"gmtModify":1703484448767,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Only the value of bitcoin that matters for tesla earnings","listText":"Only the value of bitcoin that matters for tesla earnings","text":"Only the value of bitcoin that matters for tesla earnings","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174588327","repostId":"1191636755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191636755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627084309,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191636755?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 07:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191636755","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likel","content":"<p>Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.</p>\n<p>There are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.</p>\n<p>The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for&nbsp;Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p>\n<p>There are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9cfd5cbe6d36d06167f82af45447d1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p>\n<p>The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered&nbsp;more than 200,000&nbsp;vehicles in a single quarter.</p>\n<p>After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla&nbsp;beat earnings&nbsp;estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p>\n<p>There is also the issue&nbsp;of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p>\n<p>Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s&nbsp;Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software&nbsp;as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its&nbsp;charging network&nbsp;to other EVs down the road.</p>\n<p>All those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&amp;P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 07:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.\nThere are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191636755","content_text":"Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.\nThere are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.\nThere are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.\n\nTesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.\nThe good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.\nAfter earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.\nThere is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.\nInvestors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.\nAll those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174582301,"gmtCreate":1627111618403,"gmtModify":1703484452013,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174582301","repostId":"1109439356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059631790,"gmtCreate":1654350965810,"gmtModify":1676535434847,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$Tencent Music(TME)$</a>[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$Tencent Music(TME)$</a>[smile]&nbsp;","text":"$Tencent Music(TME)$[smile]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8742618456b8fdf0ba18a8cbfc077a57","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059631790","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055585144,"gmtCreate":1655292058589,"gmtModify":1676535605603,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$Tencent Music(TME)$</a>[lovely]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$Tencent Music(TME)$</a>[lovely]&nbsp;","text":"$Tencent Music(TME)$[lovely]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5bdb699e0dc2981eda4d8816a35dd6b2","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055585144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800298726,"gmtCreate":1627303428365,"gmtModify":1703487135868,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>position","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>position","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$position","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c0234fbf2a97bd8475d8bd408cedb2","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800298726","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174584847,"gmtCreate":1627111867289,"gmtModify":1703484455321,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comments please&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comments please&nbsp;","text":"Like and comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174584847","repostId":"1191636755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191636755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627084309,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191636755?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 07:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191636755","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likel","content":"<p>Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.</p>\n<p>There are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.</p>\n<p>The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for&nbsp;Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p>\n<p>There are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9cfd5cbe6d36d06167f82af45447d1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p>\n<p>The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered&nbsp;more than 200,000&nbsp;vehicles in a single quarter.</p>\n<p>After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla&nbsp;beat earnings&nbsp;estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p>\n<p>There is also the issue&nbsp;of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p>\n<p>Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s&nbsp;Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software&nbsp;as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its&nbsp;charging network&nbsp;to other EVs down the road.</p>\n<p>All those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&amp;P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Earnings Are Coming. Here’s the One Number That Matters.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 07:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.\nThere are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191636755","content_text":"Tesla’s second-quarter earnings are just around the corner, and investors should gear up for a likely very complicated report.\nThere are a lot of moving parts, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk. Figuring out if the stock will go up or down, however, shouldn’t be all that difficult.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday,July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.\nThere are plenty of factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings—the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.\n\nTesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.\nThe good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.\nAfter earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.\nThere is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.\nInvestors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.\nAll those topics and more should come up on the earningsconference callscheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of theS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174582215,"gmtCreate":1627111684137,"gmtModify":1703484452500,"author":{"id":"3584869808763617","authorId":"3584869808763617","name":"kaisx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40adae7177ebef40c5a18d202e8b58ea","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584869808763617","idStr":"3584869808763617"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the comment","listText":"Thanks for the comment","text":"Thanks for the comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174582215","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112927800?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>\n <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>\n <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p>\n<p><b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p>\n<p>Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p>\n<p><b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p>\n<p>The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p>\n<p>Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p>\n<p>The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p>\n<p>Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p>\n<p><b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p>\n<p>When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p>\n<p>It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p>\n<p>One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}