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新手520

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2022-03-29

6

Last night and this morning | US stocks closed higher! Tesla rose more than 8%, Apple rose for 10 consecutive days

2022-03-27

666

China Internet Fog: What do you believe in?

2022-09-13

$道琼斯(.DJI)$[微笑]

2022-04-13

6

Extreme polarization! U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and various sectors are all telling opposite "stories"

2022-04-02

6

Heavy! Four ministries and commissions revised the regulations on overseas listing of enterprises, and five highlights were sorted out!

2022-11-19

$道琼斯(.DJI)$

2022-10-31

$道琼斯(.DJI)$

2022-10-28

$道琼斯(.DJI)$

2022-06-01

6

U.S. stocks rebounded! The Nasdaq rose, after falling more than 1.5% before

2022-05-26

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2022-05-17

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2022-04-22

6

The U.S. SEC added 17 Chinese concept stocks including Li Auto to the "pre-delisting list"

2022-09-22

[微笑]

Opening | The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, while Chinese concept stocks generally fell

2022-09-18

$道琼斯(.DJI)$

2022-09-12

$道琼斯(.DJI)$[微笑]

2022-09-10

[微笑]

Howard Marks' latest memo: The illusion of cognition

2022-09-09

[流泪]

Queen Elizabeth II dies at 96

2022-06-04

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2022-05-15

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2022-05-07

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07:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The trends of the three major U.S. stock indexes diverged, and Manchester United's stock price for sale rose by more than 60% this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179369982","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股交易清淡，收盘涨跌不一；热门中概股普跌，陆金所暴跌20%；中东土豪有意接盘？待售曼联本周股价涨超六成；小鹏汽车遭摩根大通减持，11月两度抛售套现超5.7亿港元；俄油上限定价难妥协，欧盟谈判会议延下","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stocks traded lightly, closing mixed; Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">Lufax</a>Plunged 20%; Are local tyrants in the Middle East interested in taking over? Held for sale<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MANU\">Manchester United</a>The stock price rose by more than 60% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Suffer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Reduce holdings, sell twice in November to cash out more than HK $570 million; Russian oil cap pricing is difficult to compromise, EU negotiation meeting postponed next week > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>Closing: U.S. stocks mixed as markets focus on retailers' holiday performance</b></p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with all three major stock indexes recording gains this week. Markets closely monitor how retailers fared on Black Friday and continue to assess the Fed's monetary policy outlook. The Dow rose 152.97 points, or 0.45%, to 34347.03 points; The Nasdaq fell 58.96 points, or 0.52%, to 11226.36 points; The S&P 500 index fell 1.14 points, or 0.03%, to 4026.12 points.</p><p>During this week, the three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded gains. The Dow rose 1.78%, the S&P 500 rose 1.53%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.72%.</p><p><b>Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell on Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">Lufax</a>Plunged 20%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 3.82%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 5.32%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 1.44%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 7.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 3.75%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Down 3.75%; Lufax fell 20%, and its net profit in the third quarter decreased by 67.1% year-on-year to 1.327 billion yuan. The company expects that its net profit in 2022 will decrease by 47%-49% year-on-year.</p><p><b>European stocks closed generally higher, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.02%</b></p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.02%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.32%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.08%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 0.02%, Spain's IBEX35 index rose 0.32%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 0.05%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286231260\" target=\"_blank\"><b>With high inflation and the shadow of economic recession, how are the Thanksgiving sales in the United States?</b></a></p><p>According to the data, online sales on Thanksgiving Day increased by 2.9%, a sluggish but slightly better than expected increase. Data is not adjusted for inflation. A small increase in low single digits means that sales may actually be declining. This year, the shopping behavior of American consumers has returned to pre-epidemic, choosing to wait and see, waiting for higher discounts at the end of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Top the list of online search discounts,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Only ranked fourth.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286317911\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Still can't agree! Russian oil cap pricing is difficult to compromise, EU negotiation meeting postponed next week</b></a></p><p>According to multiple media reports, multiple people familiar with the matter revealed that EU diplomats suspended negotiations on the price cap on Russian oil and the meeting was postponed until next Monday. Diplomats had expected to reach an agreement on Friday night, but Poland and the Baltic countries struggled to compromise on a higher price cap, people familiar with the matter said. In addition, a senior diplomat revealed that Poland demanded that additional sanctions be imposed on Russia and a review mechanism be established.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286313389\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Stop procrastinating! EU trade ministers demand fast progress on tackling Biden's inflation bill</b></a></p><p>Faced with the Biden administration's \"Inflation Reduction Act\" and the purpose of \"American Industry First\", EU countries have expressed strong opposition. Against the background of the slow progress of negotiations, EU trade ministers have come forward to shout \"hurry up\".</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286317919\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Are local tyrants in the Middle East interested in taking over? Manchester United's share price for sale rose more than 60% this week</b></a></p><p>For Manchester United investors, this is a week worth remembering. On Friday, Eastern Time, Manchester United closed up 13.35%, and once rose more than 22% during the session, setting a new high since October 2018. The stock has risen by more than 62% this week.%, an increase that set a record.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286996315\" target=\"_blank\"><b>XPeng Motors was reduced by JPMorgan Chase: it sold twice in November and cashed out more than HK $570 million</b></a></p><p>From<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a>It was learned that JPMorgan Chase reduced its holdings on November 22<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>7.8352 million shares, with an average price of HK $28.1073 per share, involving approximately HK $220 million, and the shareholding ratio dropped from the previous 7.17% to 6.57%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Closed down more than 6%, issuing new shares to raise more than US $4 billion</b></p><p>The company has issued 889 million new shares at CHF 2.52 per share to existing investors, confirming the final terms of its CHF 4 billion capital increase plan. Investors approved the capital increase on Wednesday to fund the bank's transformation plan, and the troubled<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Trying to recover from the biggest crisis in 166 years of history.</p><p><b>The U.S. FTC may initiate an antitrust lawsuit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>Down 4%</b></p><p>Media reports emerged on Wednesday that the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) may file an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal. Aaron Glick, an M&A arbitrage specialist at Cowen & Co, said many investors had banked their hopes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Good standing in the U.S. Congress will help the FTC approve the deal, but according to the deal after it fails<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>With the assumption that the share price will be at $60, the market currently projects a roughly 40% chance of a successful closing of the deal.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286345590\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Wal-Mart becomes this year's Black Five winner, surpassing Amazon to become consumers' first choice</b></a></p><p>Walmart is becoming the top choice for U.S. consumers looking for Black Friday discount events, new research data shows. As of Friday morning, Walmart dominated when U.S. consumers searched online for Black Friday discounts, according to ad technology firm Captify. Captify Company tracks more than 1 billion searches daily from websites worldwide.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286346686\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Amazon may reach settlement with EU antitrust regulators by year-end</b></a></p><p>According to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It is possible to resolve an antitrust investigation launched by European regulators by the end of this year. The European Commission \"is likely to accept Amazon's binding recommendations before the end of the year\", people familiar with the matter said. The recommendations are said to include ending certain problematic practices, such as using data from independent sellers. In addition, the settlement agreement should also include some clauses, such as requiring Amazon to \"treat all sellers equally when ranking them to select the winner in the competition\".</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The trends of the three major U.S. stock indexes diverged, and Manchester United's stock price for sale rose by more than 60% this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The trends of the three major U.S. stock indexes diverged, and Manchester United's stock price for sale rose by more than 60% this week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-26 07:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stocks traded lightly, closing mixed; Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">Lufax</a>Plunged 20%; Are local tyrants in the Middle East interested in taking over? Held for sale<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MANU\">Manchester United</a>The stock price rose by more than 60% this week;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Suffer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Reduce holdings, sell twice in November to cash out more than HK $570 million; Russian oil cap pricing is difficult to compromise, EU negotiation meeting postponed next week > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>Closing: U.S. stocks mixed as markets focus on retailers' holiday performance</b></p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with all three major stock indexes recording gains this week. Markets closely monitor how retailers fared on Black Friday and continue to assess the Fed's monetary policy outlook. The Dow rose 152.97 points, or 0.45%, to 34347.03 points; The Nasdaq fell 58.96 points, or 0.52%, to 11226.36 points; The S&P 500 index fell 1.14 points, or 0.03%, to 4026.12 points.</p><p>During this week, the three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded gains. The Dow rose 1.78%, the S&P 500 rose 1.53%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.72%.</p><p><b>Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell on Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">Lufax</a>Plunged 20%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 3.82%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Down 5.32%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 1.44%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down 7.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 3.75%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Down 1.50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Down 3.75%; Lufax fell 20%, and its net profit in the third quarter decreased by 67.1% year-on-year to 1.327 billion yuan. The company expects that its net profit in 2022 will decrease by 47%-49% year-on-year.</p><p><b>European stocks closed generally higher, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.02%</b></p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.02%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 0.32%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.08%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 0.02%, Spain's IBEX35 index rose 0.32%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 0.05%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286231260\" target=\"_blank\"><b>With high inflation and the shadow of economic recession, how are the Thanksgiving sales in the United States?</b></a></p><p>According to the data, online sales on Thanksgiving Day increased by 2.9%, a sluggish but slightly better than expected increase. Data is not adjusted for inflation. A small increase in low single digits means that sales may actually be declining. This year, the shopping behavior of American consumers has returned to pre-epidemic, choosing to wait and see, waiting for higher discounts at the end of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>Top the list of online search discounts,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Only ranked fourth.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286317911\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Still can't agree! Russian oil cap pricing is difficult to compromise, EU negotiation meeting postponed next week</b></a></p><p>According to multiple media reports, multiple people familiar with the matter revealed that EU diplomats suspended negotiations on the price cap on Russian oil and the meeting was postponed until next Monday. Diplomats had expected to reach an agreement on Friday night, but Poland and the Baltic countries struggled to compromise on a higher price cap, people familiar with the matter said. In addition, a senior diplomat revealed that Poland demanded that additional sanctions be imposed on Russia and a review mechanism be established.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286313389\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Stop procrastinating! EU trade ministers demand fast progress on tackling Biden's inflation bill</b></a></p><p>Faced with the Biden administration's \"Inflation Reduction Act\" and the purpose of \"American Industry First\", EU countries have expressed strong opposition. Against the background of the slow progress of negotiations, EU trade ministers have come forward to shout \"hurry up\".</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286317919\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Are local tyrants in the Middle East interested in taking over? Manchester United's share price for sale rose more than 60% this week</b></a></p><p>For Manchester United investors, this is a week worth remembering. On Friday, Eastern Time, Manchester United closed up 13.35%, and once rose more than 22% during the session, setting a new high since October 2018. The stock has risen by more than 62% this week.%, an increase that set a record.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286996315\" target=\"_blank\"><b>XPeng Motors was reduced by JPMorgan Chase: it sold twice in November and cashed out more than HK $570 million</b></a></p><p>From<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a>It was learned that JPMorgan Chase reduced its holdings on November 22<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>7.8352 million shares, with an average price of HK $28.1073 per share, involving approximately HK $220 million, and the shareholding ratio dropped from the previous 7.17% to 6.57%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Closed down more than 6%, issuing new shares to raise more than US $4 billion</b></p><p>The company has issued 889 million new shares at CHF 2.52 per share to existing investors, confirming the final terms of its CHF 4 billion capital increase plan. Investors approved the capital increase on Wednesday to fund the bank's transformation plan, and the troubled<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Trying to recover from the biggest crisis in 166 years of history.</p><p><b>The U.S. FTC may initiate an antitrust lawsuit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>Down 4%</b></p><p>Media reports emerged on Wednesday that the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) may file an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal. Aaron Glick, an M&A arbitrage specialist at Cowen & Co, said many investors had banked their hopes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Good standing in the U.S. Congress will help the FTC approve the deal, but according to the deal after it fails<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>With the assumption that the share price will be at $60, the market currently projects a roughly 40% chance of a successful closing of the deal.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286345590\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Wal-Mart becomes this year's Black Five winner, surpassing Amazon to become consumers' first choice</b></a></p><p>Walmart is becoming the top choice for U.S. consumers looking for Black Friday discount events, new research data shows. As of Friday morning, Walmart dominated when U.S. consumers searched online for Black Friday discounts, according to ad technology firm Captify. Captify Company tracks more than 1 billion searches daily from websites worldwide.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2286346686\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Amazon may reach settlement with EU antitrust regulators by year-end</b></a></p><p>According to people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It is possible to resolve an antitrust investigation launched by European regulators by the end of this year. The European Commission \"is likely to accept Amazon's binding recommendations before the end of the year\", people familiar with the matter said. The recommendations are said to include ending certain problematic practices, such as using data from independent sellers. In addition, the settlement agreement should also include some clauses, such as requiring Amazon to \"treat all sellers equally when ranking them to select the winner in the competition\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MANU":"曼联",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4108":"电影和娱乐"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179369982","content_text":"美股交易清淡，收盘涨跌不一；热门中概股普跌，陆金所暴跌20%；中东土豪有意接盘？待售曼联本周股价涨超六成；小鹏汽车遭摩根大通减持，11月两度抛售套现超5.7亿港元；俄油上限定价难妥协，欧盟谈判会议延下周>>>海外市场收盘：美股涨跌不一，市场关注零售商假日表现美股周五收盘涨跌不一，三大股指本周均录得涨幅。市场密切关注零售商在黑色星期五的表现，并继续评估美联储的货币政策前景。道指涨152.97点，涨幅为0.45%，报34347.03点；纳指跌58.96点，跌幅为0.52%，报11226.36点；标普500指数跌1.14点，跌幅为0.03%，报4026.12点。在这一周内，美股三大股指均录得涨幅，道指累计上涨1.78%，标普500指数上涨1.53%，纳指上涨0.72%。热门中概股周五多数下跌，陆金所暴跌20%热门中概股普跌，阿里巴巴跌3.82%，京东跌5.32%，拼多多跌1.44%，哔哩哔哩跌7.15%，百度跌3.75%，网易跌1.50%，腾讯音乐跌3.75%；陆金所跌20%，第三季度净利润同比减少67.1%至13.27亿元，公司预计2022年净利润将同比下降47%-49%。欧股收盘普涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.02%德国DAX30指数涨0.02%，英国富时100指数涨0.32%，法国CAC40指数涨0.08%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.02%，西班牙IBEX35指数涨0.32%，意大利富时MIB指数跌0.05%。国际宏观高通胀加经济衰退阴影，美国这个感恩节销售怎么样？数据显示，感恩节当日的在线销售额增长2.9%，增幅低迷但略好于预期。数据未经通胀调整。低个位数的小幅增长意味着，销量可能实际是下降的。今年美国消费者的购物行为回归到疫情前，选择观望，等待年底更高的折扣。沃尔玛位居在线搜索折扣榜首，亚马逊仅排第四。还是谈不拢！俄油上限定价难妥协，欧盟谈判会议延下周综合多家媒体报道，多位知情人士透露，欧盟外交官们暂停了关于针对俄罗斯石油价格上限的谈判，会议被推迟到下周一。知情人士们表示，外交官们原本预计能在周五晚上达成协议，但波兰和波罗的海国家难以对较高的价格上限妥协。除此以外，还有一位高级外交官透露，波兰方面要求对俄追加实施额外的制裁，并建立审查机制。停止拖延！欧盟贸易部长要求尽快推进应对拜登通胀法案的进程面对拜登政府的《通胀缩减法案》和“美国产业优先”的宗旨，欧盟国家纷纷表达了强烈反对的立场。在谈判进展缓慢的背景下，欧盟贸易部长纷纷出面喊话“搞快点”。公司新闻中东土豪有意接盘？待售曼联本周股价涨超六成对于曼联投资者来说，这是值得铭记的一周，美东时间周五，曼联收涨13.35%，盘中一度涨逾22%，创下2018年10月以来新高，该股本周累计上涨超62%，涨幅创下了历史纪录。小鹏汽车遭摩根大通减持：11月两度抛售套现超5.7亿港元从香港交易所获悉，摩根大通在11月22日减持小鹏汽车-W783.52万股，每股平均价28.1073港元，涉资约2.20亿港元，持股比例由此前的7.17%降至6.57%。瑞士信贷收跌逾6%，发新股筹资逾40亿美元该公司已向现有投资者以每股2.52瑞士法郎的价格发行8.89亿股新股，确认了其40亿瑞士法郎增资计划的最终条款。投资者本周三批准了此次增资，目的是为该行的转型计划提供资金，陷入困境的瑞士信贷试图从166年历史上最大的危机中复苏。美国FTC或发起反垄断诉讼，动视暴雪跌4%周三有媒体报道称，美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）可能会提起反垄断诉讼，以阻止这笔交易。Cowen & Co的并购套利专家Aaron Glick表示，许多投资者曾寄希望于微软在美国国会的良好信誉将有助于FTC批准这笔交易，但根据交易失败后动视暴雪股价将在60美元的假设，市场目前预计交易成功完成的可能性约为40%。沃尔玛成今年黑五大赢家，超越亚马逊成消费者首选新的研究数据显示，沃尔玛正在成为美国消费者寻找黑色星期五折扣活动的首选。根据广告技术公司Captify的数据，截至周五上午，美国消费者在网上搜索黑色星期五的折扣时，沃尔玛占据了主导地位。Captify公司每天从全球网站上跟踪超过10亿次搜索。亚马逊或于年底与欧盟反垄断监管机构达成和解据知情人士透露，亚马逊有可能在今年年底解决欧洲监管机构发起的反垄断调查。知情人士表示，欧盟委员会“很可能在年底前接受亚马逊的约束性建议”。据称，这些建议包括终止某些有问题的做法，例如使用独立卖家的数据。另外，和解协议还应包括部分条款，如要求亚马逊“在为选出竞争中的赢家而对所有卖家进行排名时，给予平等对待”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MANU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966205595,"gmtCreate":1669537227118,"gmtModify":1676538205867,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585215181911888","idStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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海信洗衣機見證C羅首秀“封神”","htmlText":"北京時間24日凌晨，葡萄牙隊迎戰加納，大神C羅也迎來了自己在拉斯阿布阿巴迪球場的高光時刻。全場90多分鐘的馳騁拼殺，最終葡萄牙以3:2斬落加納於馬下。本屆世界盃官方贊助商海信旗下的白電品牌海信洗衣機見證了這一“封神”時刻。自從2006年，C羅第一次爲葡萄牙出戰世界盃以來，他已經連續五屆征戰世界盃，每屆都有進球，上屆俄羅斯世界盃，他更是打進了4球，其中包括對陣西班牙的帽子戲法，在他的率領下，葡萄牙的最佳戰績是2006年的四強。此外，C羅還出戰了五屆歐洲盃，同樣是每屆都有進球，總共打進了14球，葡萄牙獲得歐洲盃冠軍和亞軍各一次。至此，C羅已代表國家隊打進了118球，是絕對的葡萄牙歷史英雄！其實，在全球頂級賽場上，任何成功背後都是以汗水澆灌出的實力爲依靠。正如海信洗衣機以實力姿態，見證實力精彩。從宣佈趙麗娜成爲品牌代言人到海信贊助2022年卡塔爾世界盃™的一系列體育營銷，海信洗衣機不止專注於體育精神的傳遞，更是不斷關注用戶舒適、健康體驗，在科技創新與產品升級上下足了功夫。作爲高端洗護行業的引領者，海信洗衣機從技術到產品，從產品到場景，從場景到智慧生活方式不斷迭代，通過好產品、新科技、智體驗爲用戶打造精緻智慧衣帽間、智慧陽臺、智慧衛浴等多元智慧場景解決方案，滿足消費者對高品質生活的新需求。從2020年開始，海信洗衣機就深耕蒸燙洗護領域，成爲行業首個蒸燙洗團體標準的牽頭制定者和起草組組長單位，並不斷迭代創新，蒸燙洗再次升級V-fresh離子蒸燙，使衣物在護理過程中，享受“纖維維生素”的養護，成功將高端衣物就要“蒸燙洗”的概念深入消費者認知之中。讓我們持續鎖定2022卡塔爾世界盃的，用養護黑科技助力海信洗衣機的健康生活觸達全球，開啓一場足球賽事與家電升級的新“蒸”程。","listText":"北京時間24日凌晨，葡萄牙隊迎戰加納，大神C羅也迎來了自己在拉斯阿布阿巴迪球場的高光時刻。全場90多分鐘的馳騁拼殺，最終葡萄牙以3:2斬落加納於馬下。本屆世界盃官方贊助商海信旗下的白電品牌海信洗衣機見證了這一“封神”時刻。自從2006年，C羅第一次爲葡萄牙出戰世界盃以來，他已經連續五屆征戰世界盃，每屆都有進球，上屆俄羅斯世界盃，他更是打進了4球，其中包括對陣西班牙的帽子戲法，在他的率領下，葡萄牙的最佳戰績是2006年的四強。此外，C羅還出戰了五屆歐洲盃，同樣是每屆都有進球，總共打進了14球，葡萄牙獲得歐洲盃冠軍和亞軍各一次。至此，C羅已代表國家隊打進了118球，是絕對的葡萄牙歷史英雄！其實，在全球頂級賽場上，任何成功背後都是以汗水澆灌出的實力爲依靠。正如海信洗衣機以實力姿態，見證實力精彩。從宣佈趙麗娜成爲品牌代言人到海信贊助2022年卡塔爾世界盃™的一系列體育營銷，海信洗衣機不止專注於體育精神的傳遞，更是不斷關注用戶舒適、健康體驗，在科技創新與產品升級上下足了功夫。作爲高端洗護行業的引領者，海信洗衣機從技術到產品，從產品到場景，從場景到智慧生活方式不斷迭代，通過好產品、新科技、智體驗爲用戶打造精緻智慧衣帽間、智慧陽臺、智慧衛浴等多元智慧場景解決方案，滿足消費者對高品質生活的新需求。從2020年開始，海信洗衣機就深耕蒸燙洗護領域，成爲行業首個蒸燙洗團體標準的牽頭制定者和起草組組長單位，並不斷迭代創新，蒸燙洗再次升級V-fresh離子蒸燙，使衣物在護理過程中，享受“纖維維生素”的養護，成功將高端衣物就要“蒸燙洗”的概念深入消費者認知之中。讓我們持續鎖定2022卡塔爾世界盃的，用養護黑科技助力海信洗衣機的健康生活觸達全球，開啓一場足球賽事與家電升級的新“蒸”程。","text":"北京時間24日凌晨，葡萄牙隊迎戰加納，大神C羅也迎來了自己在拉斯阿布阿巴迪球場的高光時刻。全場90多分鐘的馳騁拼殺，最終葡萄牙以3:2斬落加納於馬下。本屆世界盃官方贊助商海信旗下的白電品牌海信洗衣機見證了這一“封神”時刻。自從2006年，C羅第一次爲葡萄牙出戰世界盃以來，他已經連續五屆征戰世界盃，每屆都有進球，上屆俄羅斯世界盃，他更是打進了4球，其中包括對陣西班牙的帽子戲法，在他的率領下，葡萄牙的最佳戰績是2006年的四強。此外，C羅還出戰了五屆歐洲盃，同樣是每屆都有進球，總共打進了14球，葡萄牙獲得歐洲盃冠軍和亞軍各一次。至此，C羅已代表國家隊打進了118球，是絕對的葡萄牙歷史英雄！其實，在全球頂級賽場上，任何成功背後都是以汗水澆灌出的實力爲依靠。正如海信洗衣機以實力姿態，見證實力精彩。從宣佈趙麗娜成爲品牌代言人到海信贊助2022年卡塔爾世界盃™的一系列體育營銷，海信洗衣機不止專注於體育精神的傳遞，更是不斷關注用戶舒適、健康體驗，在科技創新與產品升級上下足了功夫。作爲高端洗護行業的引領者，海信洗衣機從技術到產品，從產品到場景，從場景到智慧生活方式不斷迭代，通過好產品、新科技、智體驗爲用戶打造精緻智慧衣帽間、智慧陽臺、智慧衛浴等多元智慧場景解決方案，滿足消費者對高品質生活的新需求。從2020年開始，海信洗衣機就深耕蒸燙洗護領域，成爲行業首個蒸燙洗團體標準的牽頭制定者和起草組組長單位，並不斷迭代創新，蒸燙洗再次升級V-fresh離子蒸燙，使衣物在護理過程中，享受“纖維維生素”的養護，成功將高端衣物就要“蒸燙洗”的概念深入消費者認知之中。讓我們持續鎖定2022卡塔爾世界盃的，用養護黑科技助力海信洗衣機的健康生活觸達全球，開啓一場足球賽事與家電升級的新“蒸”程。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e654b7da69837b18ec24db61ab9afac7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/620388523","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966904820,"gmtCreate":1669368190060,"gmtModify":1676538189752,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585215181911888","idStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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20:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | U.S. stock index futures all fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and soared more than 100%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178308155","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股三大股指期货走低；热门中概股、美股区块链概念股盘前集体下挫；小牛电动、斗鱼绩后走低；市场消息：Imago Biosciences获默沙东以36美元/股的现金收购；欧洲主要股指全线下跌；原油、黄金均","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The three major U.S. stock index futures fell; Popular Chinese concept stocks and U.S. blockchain concept stocks collectively fell before the market; Mavericks Electric and Douyu fell after their performance; Market news: Imago Biosciences was acquired by Merck for US $36/share in cash; Major European stock indexes fell across the board; Crude oil and gold both fell > > > On November 21, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.25%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.85%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.58%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e5f7d55064149785894b31e3cf33f9a\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell more than 2%;</p><p>U.S. blockchain concept stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>Both fell more than 4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>It fell nearly 5% before the market, revenue in the third quarter decreased by 6% year-on-year to 1.153 billion yuan, and electric vehicle sales fell by 19.2% year-on-year to 320,798 units;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 4% before the market, and the revenue in the third quarter was 1.798 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>It rose more than 8% before the market, after Disney announced that Iger would succeed Chapek as the company's CEO;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRND\">Grindr</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, and the stock closed up more than 200% on the previous trading day;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IMGO\">Imago Biosciences</a>It rose more than 100% before the market. Market news: The company was acquired by Merck for US $36 per share in cash.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes fell across the board. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 0.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 0.06%, and France's CAC40 fell 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe78e1308731bd0adc55523b261785e\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell slightly. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.72% to $79.53 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.71% to $87 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/044fd31b8a51c21530ab8956e74f3afa\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3180206470ec343c5382c460379bce40\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell, down 0.74% to $1,741.4 an ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3b60bcb41e00558e405bda768192e35\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | U.S. stock index futures all fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and soared more than 100%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | U.S. stock index futures all fell! A pharmaceutical stock bucked the trend and soared more than 100%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-21 20:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The three major U.S. stock index futures fell; Popular Chinese concept stocks and U.S. blockchain concept stocks collectively fell before the market; Mavericks Electric and Douyu fell after their performance; Market news: Imago Biosciences was acquired by Merck for US $36/share in cash; Major European stock indexes fell across the board; Crude oil and gold both fell > > > On November 21, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.25%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.85%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.58%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e5f7d55064149785894b31e3cf33f9a\" tg-width=\"395\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell more than 2%;</p><p>U.S. blockchain concept stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>Both fell more than 4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>It fell nearly 5% before the market, revenue in the third quarter decreased by 6% year-on-year to 1.153 billion yuan, and electric vehicle sales fell by 19.2% year-on-year to 320,798 units;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>It fell more than 4% before the market, and the revenue in the third quarter was 1.798 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>It rose more than 8% before the market, after Disney announced that Iger would succeed Chapek as the company's CEO;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRND\">Grindr</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, and the stock closed up more than 200% on the previous trading day;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IMGO\">Imago Biosciences</a>It rose more than 100% before the market. Market news: The company was acquired by Merck for US $36 per share in cash.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes fell across the board. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 0.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It fell 0.06%, and France's CAC40 fell 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe78e1308731bd0adc55523b261785e\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell slightly. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.72% to $79.53 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.71% to $87 a barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/044fd31b8a51c21530ab8956e74f3afa\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3180206470ec343c5382c460379bce40\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell, down 0.74% to $1,741.4 an ounce as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3b60bcb41e00558e405bda768192e35\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178308155","content_text":"美股三大股指期货走低；热门中概股、美股区块链概念股盘前集体下挫；小牛电动、斗鱼绩后走低；市场消息：Imago Biosciences获默沙东以36美元/股的现金收购；欧洲主要股指全线下跌；原油、黄金均走低>>>11月21日，美股三大股指期货走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.25%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.85%，标普500指数期货跌0.58%。盘前行情热门中概股多数走低，京东跌超5%，阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩、蔚来跌超3%，拼多多、小鹏汽车、理想汽车跌超2%；美股区块链概念股盘前走低，Coinbase跌超6%，Marathon Digital跌超5%，MicroStrategy、Riot Blockchain均跌超4%；小牛电动盘前跌近5%，第三季度营收同比减少6%至11.53亿元，电动车销量同比下降19.2%至320798辆；斗鱼盘前跌超4%，第三季度营收17.98亿元，同比下滑23.4%；迪士尼盘前涨超8%，此前迪士尼宣布Iger将接替Chapek重新担任公司CEO；Grindr盘前跌超8%，该股上一交易日收涨逾200%；Imago Biosciences盘前涨逾100%，市场消息：该公司获默沙东以36美元/股的现金收购。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指全线走低，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.68%，英国富时100跌0.06%，法国CAC40跌0.3%。原油原油期货小幅走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.72%，报79.53美元/桶；布伦特原油跌0.71%，报87美元/桶。黄金黄金期货走低，截止发稿，跌0.74%，报1741.4美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961449985,"gmtCreate":1669033980648,"gmtModify":1676538142324,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585215181911888","idStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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07:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | US stocks closed higher! Tesla rose more than 8%, Apple rose for 10 consecutive days","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191411165","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股收高，科技股整体走强，特斯拉涨超8%；②疫情引发需求担忧，WTI原油重挫7%，黄金期货收跌0.7%；③俄罗斯推动“卢布结算”，卢布对美元一度涨破90；④拜登提出5.8万亿美元预算案，拟","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks closed higher overnight, and technology stocks overall strengthened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 8%; ② The epidemic caused demand concerns, WTI crude oil fell 7%, and gold futures closed down 0.7%; ③ Russia promoted \"ruble settlement\", and the ruble once rose above 90 against the US dollar; ④ Biden proposed a $5.8 trillion budget, and the proposed tax increase reached a record high. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed higher! Nasdaq rose more than 1%, Tesla rose more than 8%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Rose 0.5% to achieve tenth consecutive gains</p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday. A new round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will be held in Turkey. Biden proposed a $5.8 trillion budget on Monday, and his proposed tax increase will hit a record high. As of the close, the Nasdaq rose 1.31%, the S&P 500 rose 0.71%, and the Dow rose 0.27%.</p><p>U.S. technology stocks have strengthened as a whole. Among them, the news that Tesla is brewing a stock split pushed its stock price up 8%. Apple's stock price has risen for 10 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest winning streak since October 2010, with a cumulative increase of 16.6% on the 10th.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">Happy Auto</a>Up more than 31%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closing up 1.76%.</p><p>Kaixin Auto rose more than 31%. The company previously announced that it had reached a 6 billion yuan new energy vehicle contract;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose nearly 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Rose more than 5%, Ctrip rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up nearly 2%, Wuxin Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up more than 1%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">Head Education</a>It fell more than 17%, and Ruixing's powder list fell nearly 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>Company,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Fell more than 1%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed generally higher. The German DAX30 index rose 0.79%</p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.79%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.14%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.52%.</p><p>4. WTI crude oil fell 7% on Monday, Brent crude oil closed down 6.8%</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Monday, with U.S. WTI crude oil hitting its lowest closing price in more than a week. The chief financial officer of Velandera Energy Partners said COVID-19 pandemic and anti-epidemic lockdown measures have caused crude oil prices to fall because these measures may lead to lower energy demand.</p><p>In the end, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $7.94, or 7%, to $105.96 per barrel, the lowest closing price since March 18.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed down 0.7% on Monday</p><p>Gold futures prices closed lower for the second consecutive trading day on Monday. A stronger dollar and the situation between Russia and Ukraine put pressure on gold prices.</p><p>In the end, the price of gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $14.40, or 0.7%, to close at $1,939.80 an ounce.</p><p>6. Russia promoted \"ruble settlement\", and the ruble once rose above 90 against the US dollar!</p><p>According to CCTV News citing Reuters, after the news that Russia will switch to rubles for natural gas exports to \"unfriendly\" countries and regions was released, the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar once jumped to the highest point in three weeks that day, and finally closed at 97.7 rubles to 1 dollar.</p><p>Simonov, founder of the National Energy Security Fund of the Russian Federation and director of the Department of Applied Political Science at the University of Finance and Finance of the Russian Federation, said in an interview with CCTV News that settlement in rubles can reduce the risk of freezing accounts that obtain US dollars or euros when supplying natural gas, and on the other hand, it can accelerate the process of \"de-dollarization\".</p><p>International macro</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223818855\" target=\"_blank\">Biden proposes $5.8 trillion budget with record amount of proposed tax increases</a></p><p>President Joe Biden on Monday unveiled a $5.8 trillion budget request to appease moderate Democrats, which emphasizes deficit reduction, increased funding for police and veterans and flexibility in negotiating a new social spending plan.</p><p>2. Ukrainian Foreign Minister: The biggest goal of the new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is to reach a ceasefire</p><p>Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said on the 28th that the biggest goal of Ukraine's new round of face-to-face negotiations with Russia in Turkey is to reach a ceasefire. He also said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set a clear red line for negotiations, that is, no trade for people, land or sovereignty.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223813399\" target=\"_blank\">Fed research shows fiscal stimulus may be a big cause of high inflation in the United States</a></p><p>According to researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, consumer prices in the United States have increased faster than other advanced economies. One reason may be the huge government support provided to the American people during the epidemic.</p><p>\"Fiscal support measures aimed at countering the major economic impact of the pandemic may have raised inflation by about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021, contributing to this divergence,\" Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio and Fabián Rivera-Reyes pointed out in the San Francisco Fed's weekly \"Economic Letter\".</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223132988\" target=\"_blank\">Avoid a debt default again? Russia hints that it will pay principal and interest on US dollar bonds due in April</a></p><p>On Monday, March 28, Eastern Time, according to documents submitted by the Russian National Settlement Depository NSD, Russia hinted that it would pay the principal and interest on bonds due next month and April 2042.</p><p>According to Bloomberg News, Russia has submitted \"interest payment\" and \"principal repayment\" notices on $2 billion of bonds due on April 4. In addition, Russia also submitted a \"interest payment\" notice for bonds due in April 2042. Holders of the bonds should receive $84 million in interest on April 4. The move also implies that Russia may once again temporarily avoid the risk of its first sovereign debt default in 24 years.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223816240\" target=\"_blank\">G7 unanimously rejects Putin's demand to buy Russian gas in rubles</a></p><p>Energy ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) unanimously rejected Putin's demand to pay for gas contracts in rubles.</p><p>Robert Habeck, economy minister of Germany, which holds the rotating presidency, said on Monday that Putin's demand represented a \"unilateral and obvious default\". Also attending the meeting were EU officials.</p><p>6. OPEC hints that it will not accelerate production increase, UAE says its cooperative relationship with Russia is solid</p><p>OPEC + hinted that although the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused the market to face the biggest turmoil in decades, they still see no need to adjust oil supply plans.</p><p>UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said at a conference in Dubai on Monday that \"if the market supply and demand are balanced and the resources are on the market, we will not increase the resources\". He added that OPEC + is not looking at whether the reduction in Russian oil exports is causing imbalances.</p><p>7. Bank of England: UK economic growth will slow due to biggest energy price shock in 50 years</p><p>Bailey, governor of the Bank of England (Bank of England), said on March 28, local time, that British economic growth will slow down due to the largest energy price shock in 50 years.</p><p>According to analysis by industry organizations, after the sharp rise in natural gas and electricity bills in the UK on April 1, the inflation rate in the UK may reach 8% in the spring. Coupled with the high global energy prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is expected that later in 2022, the UK's inflation rate may be close to 10%.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223167968\" target=\"_blank\">Apple rises for 10 consecutive trading days, setting record for longest winning streak since 2010</a></p><p>Apple Inc. stock recorded its longest winning streak in more than a decade on Monday, following its landmark Academy Awards victory.</p><p>Apple's shares closed up 0.5% on Monday at $175.60, with a market value of $2.86 trillion. As of Monday's close, Apple's stock price has risen for 10 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest winning streak since October 2010, with a cumulative increase of 16.6% on the 10th.</p><p>Apple's Children of Deaf Adults (CODA) won the Academy Award for Best Picture on Sunday night, becoming the first streaming service to win Hollywood's top award and beating streaming pioneers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223133638\" target=\"_blank\">Walmart will stop selling cigarettes at some U.S. stores</a></p><p>According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on Monday (March 28th) local time, people familiar with the matter revealed that some U.S. stores of Wal-Mart will stop selling cigarettes, after the company's leadership had argued over the sales of tobacco products for many years.</p><p>Wal-Mart, which has more than 4,700 stores in the United States, is removing tobacco products from its selected stores to make more efficient use of the space, its spokesman said. She wouldn't say how many stores will continue to sell cigarettes, but said that Wal-Mart has not stopped all tobacco sales.</p><p>It is reported that Wal-Mart has introduced a design to set up more self-service cash registers and readily available food or candy near the store entrance to replace Marlboro, Newport and other tobacco products.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1164591099\" target=\"_blank\">Apple is reported to cut iPhone SE and AirPods production due to cold consumer demand</a></p><p>On March 28, according to Nikkei News, sources said that Apple plans to cut its iPhone SE and AirPods production as the Ukraine crisis and inflation begin to drag down demand for consumer electronics products. The report pointed out that due to weaker-than-expected demand, Apple plans to produce about 20% fewer iPhone SEs in the next quarter, or about 2 million to 3 million fewer units than originally planned.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2222098897\" target=\"_blank\">Microsoft's cloud business faces antitrust complaints, EU says there are no concerns in this regard</a></p><p>On the evening of March 28, Beijing time, it was reported that Margrethe Vestager, the head of EU antitrust affairs, said today that although<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>, Microsoft and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Dominate the cloud computing market, but there are no competitive concerns at present.</p><p>In recent years, the market power of these large companies has caused unease among smaller competitors. In the middle of this month, German software provider NextCloud, French cloud computing service provider OVHCloud, and two other companies complained to the European Union about Microsoft's cloud business.</p><p>In this regard, the European Commission said at the time that it had received relevant complaints. But today, when asked if he was \"worried that these companies might abuse their dominant position,\" Vestager said: \"No, so far, we don't have any concerns.\"</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223811605\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla officially announced that it will submit a stock split proposal to the shareholders' meeting</a></p><p>Before the market opened on Monday local time, the electric vehicle leader stated in Form 8-K submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it would require shareholders to vote at this year's annual general meeting to authorize the issuance of additional shares to achieve a stock split. Although the company did not specifically disclose the stock split plan, Tesla recorded a surge of 8.03% on Monday based on the performance of high-priced leading stocks after they announced stock splits in the past.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Tesla CEO Musk also said on social media on Monday that he should have been infected with Novel Coronavirus again, but he has almost no symptoms. The world's richest man had previously announced that he was infected with the new crown in November 2020.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223581581\" target=\"_blank\">The founders suddenly resigned together, and the charging pile concept stock Volta plummeted to a record low</a></p><p>On Monday local time, Volta, a US charging pile concept stock, announced that the company's CEO Scott Mercer announced his resignation and resigned from the board of directors, but will continue to run the company as interim CEO until March 31, 2023, and serve as the company's board of directors to search for a new CEO consultant. In addition, Chris Wendel, another founder and chairman of the board of directors of the company, immediately resigned, and two independent directors were appointed as co-chairmen of the board of directors.</p><p>Considering that Volta just announced last week that it would postpone the scheduled announcement schedule of the four seasons, Volta's stock price closed down and fell 18%, setting a new low since its listing in August last year.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2222041892\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett's deputy wants to quit? Munger relinquishes title as chairman of daily journal company</a></p><p>Charlie Munger, 98, a long-time business partner of Buffett, will give up his title of chairman of Daily Journal Corp and donate $1 million worth of stock to develop an equity incentive plan for this company.</p><p>8. Roche Pharmaceuticals bispecific Vabysmo was approved in Japan</p><p>Chugai Pharmaceuticals, a subsidiary of Roche Pharmaceuticals, announced on Monday that Roche bispecific Vabysmo has been approved in Japan. The drug is used for diseases such as age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema. It has previously been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) at the end of January.</p><p>9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223581937\" target=\"_blank\">CEO said he plans to expand external M&A business! AMC Theaters' stock price soared over 45%</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>The stock price soared, and as of the close, the stock rose more than 45% to $29.375. Earlier, the company's CEO said it was planning more strategic deals to take advantage of some of the more than $1 billion raised from retail investors last year.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | US stocks closed higher! Tesla rose more than 8%, Apple rose for 10 consecutive days</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | US stocks closed higher! Tesla rose more than 8%, Apple rose for 10 consecutive days\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-29 07:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks closed higher overnight, and technology stocks overall strengthened.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 8%; ② The epidemic caused demand concerns, WTI crude oil fell 7%, and gold futures closed down 0.7%; ③ Russia promoted \"ruble settlement\", and the ruble once rose above 90 against the US dollar; ④ Biden proposed a $5.8 trillion budget, and the proposed tax increase reached a record high. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed higher! Nasdaq rose more than 1%, Tesla rose more than 8%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Rose 0.5% to achieve tenth consecutive gains</p><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday. A new round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will be held in Turkey. Biden proposed a $5.8 trillion budget on Monday, and his proposed tax increase will hit a record high. As of the close, the Nasdaq rose 1.31%, the S&P 500 rose 0.71%, and the Dow rose 0.27%.</p><p>U.S. technology stocks have strengthened as a whole. Among them, the news that Tesla is brewing a stock split pushed its stock price up 8%. Apple's stock price has risen for 10 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest winning streak since October 2010, with a cumulative increase of 16.6% on the 10th.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">Happy Auto</a>Up more than 31%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closing up 1.76%.</p><p>Kaixin Auto rose more than 31%. The company previously announced that it had reached a 6 billion yuan new energy vehicle contract;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose nearly 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">Car Home</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>Rose more than 5%, Ctrip rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up nearly 2%, Wuxin Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up more than 1%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">Head Education</a>It fell more than 17%, and Ruixing's powder list fell nearly 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>Company,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Fell more than 1%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed generally higher. The German DAX30 index rose 0.79%</p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.79%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.14%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.52%.</p><p>4. WTI crude oil fell 7% on Monday, Brent crude oil closed down 6.8%</p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed sharply lower on Monday, with U.S. WTI crude oil hitting its lowest closing price in more than a week. The chief financial officer of Velandera Energy Partners said COVID-19 pandemic and anti-epidemic lockdown measures have caused crude oil prices to fall because these measures may lead to lower energy demand.</p><p>In the end, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $7.94, or 7%, to $105.96 per barrel, the lowest closing price since March 18.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed down 0.7% on Monday</p><p>Gold futures prices closed lower for the second consecutive trading day on Monday. A stronger dollar and the situation between Russia and Ukraine put pressure on gold prices.</p><p>In the end, the price of gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $14.40, or 0.7%, to close at $1,939.80 an ounce.</p><p>6. Russia promoted \"ruble settlement\", and the ruble once rose above 90 against the US dollar!</p><p>According to CCTV News citing Reuters, after the news that Russia will switch to rubles for natural gas exports to \"unfriendly\" countries and regions was released, the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar once jumped to the highest point in three weeks that day, and finally closed at 97.7 rubles to 1 dollar.</p><p>Simonov, founder of the National Energy Security Fund of the Russian Federation and director of the Department of Applied Political Science at the University of Finance and Finance of the Russian Federation, said in an interview with CCTV News that settlement in rubles can reduce the risk of freezing accounts that obtain US dollars or euros when supplying natural gas, and on the other hand, it can accelerate the process of \"de-dollarization\".</p><p>International macro</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223818855\" target=\"_blank\">Biden proposes $5.8 trillion budget with record amount of proposed tax increases</a></p><p>President Joe Biden on Monday unveiled a $5.8 trillion budget request to appease moderate Democrats, which emphasizes deficit reduction, increased funding for police and veterans and flexibility in negotiating a new social spending plan.</p><p>2. Ukrainian Foreign Minister: The biggest goal of the new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is to reach a ceasefire</p><p>Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said on the 28th that the biggest goal of Ukraine's new round of face-to-face negotiations with Russia in Turkey is to reach a ceasefire. He also said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set a clear red line for negotiations, that is, no trade for people, land or sovereignty.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223813399\" target=\"_blank\">Fed research shows fiscal stimulus may be a big cause of high inflation in the United States</a></p><p>According to researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, consumer prices in the United States have increased faster than other advanced economies. One reason may be the huge government support provided to the American people during the epidemic.</p><p>\"Fiscal support measures aimed at countering the major economic impact of the pandemic may have raised inflation by about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021, contributing to this divergence,\" Òscar Jordà, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio and Fabián Rivera-Reyes pointed out in the San Francisco Fed's weekly \"Economic Letter\".</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223132988\" target=\"_blank\">Avoid a debt default again? Russia hints that it will pay principal and interest on US dollar bonds due in April</a></p><p>On Monday, March 28, Eastern Time, according to documents submitted by the Russian National Settlement Depository NSD, Russia hinted that it would pay the principal and interest on bonds due next month and April 2042.</p><p>According to Bloomberg News, Russia has submitted \"interest payment\" and \"principal repayment\" notices on $2 billion of bonds due on April 4. In addition, Russia also submitted a \"interest payment\" notice for bonds due in April 2042. Holders of the bonds should receive $84 million in interest on April 4. The move also implies that Russia may once again temporarily avoid the risk of its first sovereign debt default in 24 years.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223816240\" target=\"_blank\">G7 unanimously rejects Putin's demand to buy Russian gas in rubles</a></p><p>Energy ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) unanimously rejected Putin's demand to pay for gas contracts in rubles.</p><p>Robert Habeck, economy minister of Germany, which holds the rotating presidency, said on Monday that Putin's demand represented a \"unilateral and obvious default\". Also attending the meeting were EU officials.</p><p>6. OPEC hints that it will not accelerate production increase, UAE says its cooperative relationship with Russia is solid</p><p>OPEC + hinted that although the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused the market to face the biggest turmoil in decades, they still see no need to adjust oil supply plans.</p><p>UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said at a conference in Dubai on Monday that \"if the market supply and demand are balanced and the resources are on the market, we will not increase the resources\". He added that OPEC + is not looking at whether the reduction in Russian oil exports is causing imbalances.</p><p>7. Bank of England: UK economic growth will slow due to biggest energy price shock in 50 years</p><p>Bailey, governor of the Bank of England (Bank of England), said on March 28, local time, that British economic growth will slow down due to the largest energy price shock in 50 years.</p><p>According to analysis by industry organizations, after the sharp rise in natural gas and electricity bills in the UK on April 1, the inflation rate in the UK may reach 8% in the spring. Coupled with the high global energy prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is expected that later in 2022, the UK's inflation rate may be close to 10%.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223167968\" target=\"_blank\">Apple rises for 10 consecutive trading days, setting record for longest winning streak since 2010</a></p><p>Apple Inc. stock recorded its longest winning streak in more than a decade on Monday, following its landmark Academy Awards victory.</p><p>Apple's shares closed up 0.5% on Monday at $175.60, with a market value of $2.86 trillion. As of Monday's close, Apple's stock price has risen for 10 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest winning streak since October 2010, with a cumulative increase of 16.6% on the 10th.</p><p>Apple's Children of Deaf Adults (CODA) won the Academy Award for Best Picture on Sunday night, becoming the first streaming service to win Hollywood's top award and beating streaming pioneers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223133638\" target=\"_blank\">Walmart will stop selling cigarettes at some U.S. stores</a></p><p>According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on Monday (March 28th) local time, people familiar with the matter revealed that some U.S. stores of Wal-Mart will stop selling cigarettes, after the company's leadership had argued over the sales of tobacco products for many years.</p><p>Wal-Mart, which has more than 4,700 stores in the United States, is removing tobacco products from its selected stores to make more efficient use of the space, its spokesman said. She wouldn't say how many stores will continue to sell cigarettes, but said that Wal-Mart has not stopped all tobacco sales.</p><p>It is reported that Wal-Mart has introduced a design to set up more self-service cash registers and readily available food or candy near the store entrance to replace Marlboro, Newport and other tobacco products.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1164591099\" target=\"_blank\">Apple is reported to cut iPhone SE and AirPods production due to cold consumer demand</a></p><p>On March 28, according to Nikkei News, sources said that Apple plans to cut its iPhone SE and AirPods production as the Ukraine crisis and inflation begin to drag down demand for consumer electronics products. The report pointed out that due to weaker-than-expected demand, Apple plans to produce about 20% fewer iPhone SEs in the next quarter, or about 2 million to 3 million fewer units than originally planned.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2222098897\" target=\"_blank\">Microsoft's cloud business faces antitrust complaints, EU says there are no concerns in this regard</a></p><p>On the evening of March 28, Beijing time, it was reported that Margrethe Vestager, the head of EU antitrust affairs, said today that although<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>, Microsoft and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Dominate the cloud computing market, but there are no competitive concerns at present.</p><p>In recent years, the market power of these large companies has caused unease among smaller competitors. In the middle of this month, German software provider NextCloud, French cloud computing service provider OVHCloud, and two other companies complained to the European Union about Microsoft's cloud business.</p><p>In this regard, the European Commission said at the time that it had received relevant complaints. But today, when asked if he was \"worried that these companies might abuse their dominant position,\" Vestager said: \"No, so far, we don't have any concerns.\"</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223811605\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla officially announced that it will submit a stock split proposal to the shareholders' meeting</a></p><p>Before the market opened on Monday local time, the electric vehicle leader stated in Form 8-K submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it would require shareholders to vote at this year's annual general meeting to authorize the issuance of additional shares to achieve a stock split. Although the company did not specifically disclose the stock split plan, Tesla recorded a surge of 8.03% on Monday based on the performance of high-priced leading stocks after they announced stock splits in the past.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that Tesla CEO Musk also said on social media on Monday that he should have been infected with Novel Coronavirus again, but he has almost no symptoms. The world's richest man had previously announced that he was infected with the new crown in November 2020.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223581581\" target=\"_blank\">The founders suddenly resigned together, and the charging pile concept stock Volta plummeted to a record low</a></p><p>On Monday local time, Volta, a US charging pile concept stock, announced that the company's CEO Scott Mercer announced his resignation and resigned from the board of directors, but will continue to run the company as interim CEO until March 31, 2023, and serve as the company's board of directors to search for a new CEO consultant. In addition, Chris Wendel, another founder and chairman of the board of directors of the company, immediately resigned, and two independent directors were appointed as co-chairmen of the board of directors.</p><p>Considering that Volta just announced last week that it would postpone the scheduled announcement schedule of the four seasons, Volta's stock price closed down and fell 18%, setting a new low since its listing in August last year.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2222041892\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett's deputy wants to quit? Munger relinquishes title as chairman of daily journal company</a></p><p>Charlie Munger, 98, a long-time business partner of Buffett, will give up his title of chairman of Daily Journal Corp and donate $1 million worth of stock to develop an equity incentive plan for this company.</p><p>8. Roche Pharmaceuticals bispecific Vabysmo was approved in Japan</p><p>Chugai Pharmaceuticals, a subsidiary of Roche Pharmaceuticals, announced on Monday that Roche bispecific Vabysmo has been approved in Japan. The drug is used for diseases such as age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema. It has previously been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) at the end of January.</p><p>9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2223581937\" target=\"_blank\">CEO said he plans to expand external M&A business! AMC Theaters' stock price soared over 45%</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>The stock price soared, and as of the close, the stock rose more than 45% to $29.375. Earlier, the company's CEO said it was planning more strategic deals to take advantage of some of the more than $1 billion raised from retail investors last year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191411165","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股收高，科技股整体走强，特斯拉涨超8%；②疫情引发需求担忧，WTI原油重挫7%，黄金期货收跌0.7%；③俄罗斯推动“卢布结算”，卢布对美元一度涨破90；④拜登提出5.8万亿美元预算案，拟议加税金额创历史新高。海外市场1、美股收高！纳指涨超1%特斯拉涨超8% 苹果涨0.5%实现十连涨美股周一收高。乌俄新一轮谈判将在土耳其举行。拜登周一提出5.8万亿美元预算案，其建议加税金额将创历史新高。截至收盘，纳指涨1.31%，标普500指数涨0.71%，道指涨0.27%。美国科技股整体走强，其中特斯拉酝酿拆股的消息推动其股价大涨8%，苹果股价已连续10个交易日上涨，创2010年10月以来的最长连涨纪录，10日累计涨幅16.6%。2、热门中概股周一收盘多数走高 开心汽车涨超31%热门中概股周一收盘多数走高，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.76%。开心汽车涨超31%，公司此前宣布达成60亿元新能源汽车合同；叮咚买菜涨近14%，爱奇艺涨超9%，蔚来汽车、汽车之家涨超6%，金山云涨超5%，携程涨超4%，哔哩哔哩涨超3%，微博、阿里巴巴涨近2%，雾芯科技、贝壳涨超1%。掌门教育跌超17%，瑞幸粉单跌近4%，水滴公司、BOSS直聘、高途跌超2%，拼多多跌超1%。3、欧股收盘普涨 德国DAX30指数涨0.79%德国DAX30指数涨0.79%，法国CAC40指数涨0.54%，英国富时100指数跌0.14%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.52%。4、周一WTI原油重挫7% 布伦特原油收跌6.8%原油期货价格周一大幅收跌，美国WTI原油创一周多来的最低收盘价。Velandera Energy Partners的首席财务官表示，新冠疫情及抗疫封锁措施导致原油价格下跌，因为这些措施可能导致能源需求下降。最终，纽约商品交易所5月交割的西德州中质原油期货价格下跌7.94美元，跌幅为7%，所有每桶105.96美元，创3月18日以来的最低收盘价。5、周一黄金期货收跌0.7%黄金期货价格周一连续第二个交易日收跌。美元走强以及俄乌局势令金价承压。最终，纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌14.40美元，跌幅为0.7%，收于每盎司1939.80美元。6、俄罗斯推动“卢布结算”，卢布对美元一度涨破90！据央视新闻援引路透社报道，俄罗斯将对“不友好”国家和地区出口的天然气改用卢布结算的消息发布后，卢布对美元汇率当天一度跃升至三周来最高点，最终收报97.7卢布兑换1美元。俄联邦国家能源安全基金创始人、俄联邦政府财政金融大学应用政治学系主任西蒙诺夫在接受总央视新闻采访时表示，以卢布结算一方面可以降低供应天然气时获取美元或欧元收益的账户被冻结的风险，另一方面则可以加速“去美元化”进程。国际宏观1、拜登提出5.8万亿美元预算案，拟议加税金额创历史新高美国总统乔·拜登周一公布了5.8万亿美元的预算要求，以安抚温和派民主党人，其中强调削减赤字，增加对警察和退伍军人的拨款，并在协商新的社会支出计划方面提供灵活性。2、乌外长：俄乌新一轮谈判最大目标是达成停火乌克兰外交部长库列巴28日表示，乌克兰在土耳其与俄罗斯新一轮面对面谈判的最大目标是达成停火。他还说，乌克兰总统泽连斯基已经为谈判设定了明确的红线，也就是：不拿人员、土地或主权做交易。3、美联储研究显示财政刺激可能是导致美国通胀高企的重要原因根据旧金山联储银行的研究员，美国消费者物价增幅超过其他发达经济体，其中一个理由可能是在疫情期间向美国民众提供的庞大的政府支持。“旨在应对疫情对经济重大影响的财政支持措施可能在2021年底前令通胀提高了大约3个百分点，从而导致了这一分化，”Òscar Jordà、Celeste Liu、Fernanda Nechio和Fabián Rivera-Reyes在旧金山联储银行一周一度的“Economic Letter”中指出。4、再次避免债务违约？俄罗斯暗示将兑付4月到期美元债券本息美东时间3月28日周一，根据俄罗斯国家结算存管机构NSD提交的文件，俄罗斯暗示将对下个月和2042年4月到期的债券兑付本息。据彭博社报道，俄罗斯已提交了对4月4日到期的20亿美元债券的“付息”和“本金偿还”通知。此外，俄罗斯还提交了2042年4月到期债券的“付息”通知，该债券的持有人应该在4月4日收到8400万美元利息。此举也暗示着俄罗斯或将再一次暂时避免24年来首次主权债违约的风险。5、G7一致拒绝普京提出的以卢布购买俄罗斯天然气的要求七国集团（G7）能源部长一致否决普京提出的以卢布支付天然气合同的要求。轮值主席国德国的经济部长Robert Habeck周一表示，普京的需求代表着“单方面明显违约”。参与会议的还有欧盟官员。6、OPEC+暗示不会加快增产 阿联酋称与俄罗斯合作关系稳固OPEC+暗示，尽管俄乌冲突令市场面临数十年来最大动荡，但他们仍然认为没有必要调整石油供应计划。阿联酋能源大臣Suhail Al-Mazrouei周一在迪拜一个会议上表示，“如果市场供需平衡，而且资源在市场上，我们不会再增加资源”。他补充说，OPEC+并没有关注俄罗斯石油出口减少是否导致失衡。7、英国央行：英国经济增长将因50年来最大能源价格冲击放缓英国英格兰银行(英国央行)行长贝利在当地时间3月28日表示，受50年以来最大规模的能源价格冲击影响，英国经济增长将放缓。有业内机构分析，在4月1日英国天然气和电费大幅上涨之后，春季英国的通货膨胀率可能达到8%，再加上俄乌冲突引发全球能源价格高涨，预计在2022年晚些时候，英国的通胀率或将接近10%。公司新闻1、苹果连续10个交易日上涨 创2010年以来最长连涨纪录在里程碑式的奥斯卡金像奖胜利之后，苹果公司股价周一创下了十多年来最长的连胜纪录。苹果公司股价周一收涨0.5%，报175.60美元，市值2.86万亿美元。截至周一收盘，苹果股价已连续10个交易日上涨，创2010年10月以来的最长连涨纪录，10日累计涨幅16.6%。周日晚间，苹果出品的《健听女孩》（CODA）荣获奥斯卡最佳影片奖，成为首个获得好莱坞最高奖项的流媒体服务，并击败流媒体先驱奈飞。2、沃尔玛部分美国门店将停止销售香烟据《华尔街日报》当地时间周一（3月28日）报道，知情人士透露，沃尔玛的部分美国门店将停止销售香烟，此前该公司领导层就烟草产品的销售问题进行了多年的争论。沃尔玛在美国有4700多家门店，其发言人称，该公司正在将烟草产品从其选定的门店下架，以更有效地利用这些空间。她不予透露有多少门店将继续销售香烟，但表示，沃尔玛并没有停止所有的烟草销售。据悉，沃尔玛已推出一种设计，在商店门口附近设置更多自助收银机以及随手可得的食物或糖果，取代万宝路、纽波特和其他烟草产品。3、苹果据悉将削减iPhone SE与AirPods产量，因消费需求遇冷3月28日消息，据日经新闻报道，消息人士称，由于乌克兰危机和通胀开始拖累消费电子产品的需求，苹果计划削减其iPhone SE和AirPods产量。报道指出，由于需求弱于预期，苹果计划在下一季度少生产约20%的iPhone SE，或比原定计划少生产约200万至300万部。4、微软云业务遭反垄断投诉 欧盟称不存在这方面担忧北京时间3月28日晚间消息，据报道，欧盟反垄断事务负责人玛格丽特·维斯塔格（Margrethe Vestager）今日表示，虽然亚马逊、微软和谷歌主导着云计算市场，但目前还不存在竞争方面的担忧。近年来，这些大公司的市场力量，引发了规模较小的竞争对手的不安。本月中旬，德国软件提供商NextCloud、法国云计算服务提供商OVHCloud，以及另外两家公司，向欧盟投诉微软的云业务。对此，欧盟委员会当时表示，已接到相关投诉。但今日，当被问及“是否担心这些公司可能滥用其主导地位”时，维斯塔格说：“不，到目前为止，我们还没有任何担忧。”5、特斯拉官宣将向股东大会提交拆股提案当地时间周一盘前，电动车龙头在提交给美国证券交易委员会的8-K表格中称，将要求股东在今年的年度股东大会上投票授权增发股份，以实现拆股。虽然公司并没有具体透露拆股方案，但基于以往高价龙头股宣布拆股后的表现，特斯拉周一录得8.03%的大涨。值得一提的是，特斯拉CEO马斯克周一也在社交媒体上表示，他应该是又感染了新冠病毒，不过几乎没有症状。全球首富此前在2020年11月时也曾宣布感染新冠。6、创始人突然携手辞职 充电桩概念股Volta重挫至历史新低当地时间周一，美股充电桩概念股Volta发布公告称，公司CEO Scott Mercer宣布辞职同时退出董事会，但将以临时CEO的身份继续执掌公司至2023年3月31日，并作为公司董事会搜索新CEO的顾问。此外公司另一位创始人、董事会主席Chris Wendel立刻辞职，两名独立董事获得联席董事会主席的任命。考虑到Volta上周刚宣布推迟既定的四季报宣布日程，Volta股价收跌重挫18%刷新去年八月上市后的新低。7、巴菲特副手萌生退意？ 芒格放弃日报期刊公司董事长头衔“股神”巴菲特的长期商业伙伴、98岁的查理·芒格将放弃其在日报期刊公司（Daily Journal Corp）的董事长头衔，并捐赠价值100万美元的股票，为这家公司制定股权激励计划。8、罗氏制药双特异性Vabysmo在日本获得批准罗氏制药子公司中外制药周一宣布，罗氏双特异性Vabysmo在日本获得批准，该药品用于老年黄斑变性、糖尿病性黄斑水肿等疾病，之前已经在一月底获得美国食品药品管理局（FDA）批准。9、CEO称计划扩展外部并购业务！AMC院线股价飙涨超45%AMC院线股价飙涨，截至收盘，该股涨超45%，报29.375美元。此前，该公司首席执行官表示，正计划进行更多的战略交易，以利用去年从散户投资者那里筹集到的10亿余美元中的部分资金。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0,"SCO":0,"DDG":0,"CLmain":0,"UCO":0,"QMmain":0,"BZmain":0,"DUG":0,"DWT":0,"DWTIF":0,"UWTIF":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010873647,"gmtCreate":1648346456154,"gmtModify":1676534329511,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010873647","repostId":"1104202250","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104202250","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648340339,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104202250?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-27 08:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"China Internet Fog: What do you believe in?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104202250","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"这些年，机构苦口婆心教育基民“越跌越买”，但似乎只有中概互联，能让大家一边痛骂不如改名“中丐互怜”，一边乖乖掏钱。2021年2月18日，（易方达）中概互联网ETF场内价格创出历史新高。当时，这只基金的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In recent years, institutions have worked hard to educate Christians to \"buy more and more\", but it seems that only Zhonggai Internet can make everyone scold and change its name to \"Mutual Pity of Chinese Beggars\" while paying obediently.</p><p>On February 18, 2021, the on-site price of (E Fund) Zhonggai Internet ETF hit a record high. At that time, the share of this fund was less than 3.5 billion shares, and the product was far less famous than it is now. Unexpectedly, during the subsequent decline in net value and on-market prices, the share of this fund increased instead of decreasing, increasing more than 10 times in more than a year, approaching 35.5 billion shares. (Bank of Communications) Zhonggai Internet LOF, (GF) Zhonggai Internet ETF, Hang Seng Technology ETF and other index funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks and the Internet have achieved a great leap forward during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002c4daa1600178dc042fd90aa7fe201\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Investors who are accustomed to conspiracy theories will think without hesitation that 80% of these \"suicidal\" bargain-hunting behaviors are luring leeks to go deeper. Actually, it's not.</p><p>Wind data shows that when the share and scale of (E Fund) Zhonggai Internet ETF are rising against the trend, the proportion of institutional holdings is rising slightly, and the proportion of internal holdings is also rising slightly. This shows that not only institutional funds, but also insiders of fund companies Personnel are also constantly buying bottoms during the decline of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275016ee3f4b499c5320654bfaa41997\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>When domestic funds are full of enthusiasm for bargain hunting, foreign capital is hit head-on. The 13F report shows that many foreign investors such as Goldman Sachs, Temasek, BlackRock, and JPMorgan Chase have reduced their holdings of leading Chinese concept stocks such as Alibaba. The five Chinese concept stocks were even included in the \"pre-delisting list\" by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. JPMorgan Chase gave a \"sell rating\" to Chinese concept stocks in batches, and the cold ice rain pressed the bulls on the ground and rubbed them repeatedly.</p><p>Some people get on the bus and buy more and more as they fall, while others get off the boat and leave the market at the expense of cutting their meat. The huge differences seem to make the future of Chinese concept stocks even more confusing.</p><p>This article mainly answers the reasons for the decline of Chinese concept stocks and what domestic and foreign funds bought at the bottom. It is divided into three parts:</p><p>1) Reveal: Why did Chinese concept stocks plummet?</p><p>2) Bottom-hunting: domestic funds buy \"platforms\"</p><p>3) Change: Overseas institutions love to play with cars</p><p><b>01. Why did it fall sharply?</b></p><p>\"Just out of ICU, I entered KTV again\", the recent performance of Chinese concept stocks is almost crazy. However, short-lived joy can't soothe the wounded hearts of investors.</p><p>Wind data shows that as of the close on March 21, 231 of the 370 Chinese concept stocks have fallen this year, accounting for 62%; Among them, there are 29 stocks whose stock prices have been cut in half, and Tiandihui and Juhao Mall both fell by nearly 90%. In a market without rise and fall limits, it is so unrestrained when it falls.</p><p>If we count the decline of the stock price from its high point so far, the situation is even more tragic. For example, Alibaba, which currently has the largest market value in the Chinese concept stock market, hit a record high of US $319.32 at the end of October 2020, but now its stock price is less than 1/3 of that at that time, with a drop of as much as 67%, and the lowest during the period fell to US $73.28; Baidu, Pinduoduo and other Chinese concept stocks have all fallen by more than 50% since the high point, and even JD.com, which is more resilient to decline, has fallen by 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693d152af3bc7480f2d07bf9b4e2479d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1047\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The stock prices of Internet companies such as Tencent Holdings, Meituan, and Xiaomi listed on the Hong Kong stock market have also been losing ground, falling to the point that shareholders don't even recognize them.</p><p>This round of adjustment of Chinese concept stocks, with a large decline, a long cycle, and a wide scope, is rare in history. The reasons behind it must not be simply explained by performance. Behind the near destruction of the group, there are four words: internal troubles and external troubles.</p><p>As we all know, the biggest \"external trouble\" faced by Chinese concept stocks is the risk of delisting.</p><p>According to the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act passed by the U.S. Congress in 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is allowed to delist a foreign listed company from the exchange if it fails to submit the report required by the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board for three consecutive years; These include the unequal requirement that foreign companies listed in the United States disclose audit papers.</p><p>On March 10 this year, the SEC included five Chinese concept stock companies in the tentative list of the \"Foreign Company Accountability Act\", which once again triggered a wave of selling in Chinese concept stocks and made investors have a more intuitive understanding of the lethality of delisting. feel. The risk of delisting is, in the final analysis, a crisis of confidence, and the pressure on Chinese concept stocks mainly comes from two aspects:</p><p>First, concerns about liquidity discounts. U.S. stocks are a global market with flooding liquidity. The premium of listing in the United States is relatively high, and the financing efficiency is higher; In contrast, the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is not so abundant, and the premium of listing in Hong Kong is low. After Chinese concept stocks are delisted in the United States, they are transferred to Hong Kong stocks, which tests the ability of domestic investors to undertake, and there may be liquidity discount risks.</p><p>Second, the pressure of US dollar investors to concentrate on selling. At present, there are still a large number of overseas institutions among shareholders of Chinese concept stocks. If these companies delist from the US stock market, it will inevitably trigger a large-scale sell-off by overseas investors.</p><p>The house leaks and it rains all night. The sword of delisting is still hanging, and the tightening of domestic industry regulatory policies has cast an unpredictable shadow over the prospects of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>In the past year or so, policies such as anti-monopoly in the Internet industry, \"double reduction\" in the education industry, and new regulations on anti-addiction to online games have been introduced one after another. Although the starting point of these policies is good, not to suppress individual industries and enterprises, it takes time for overseas investors to adjust their domestic policy expectations, which can easily lead to short-term market overreaction, sudden drop in risk appetite and panic decline.</p><p>In the communication with some fund managers, I found that there is another voice about the reason for the decline of Chinese concept stocks. Some people think that after years of development, the penetration rate of the Internet is very high, and the development of the industry has entered the second half. In recent years, the growth logic of the Internet industry is that the market is sinking, but the entire industry space may have approached the \"ceiling\". It is expected that the future industry growth rate will peak and fall back.</p><p>In other words, the rapid growth period of the Internet industry has passed, and it will enter a mature period in the future, and the imagination space of valuation has become smaller. Although this view is somewhat \"hindsight\", it undoubtedly aggravates the pessimistic expectations of the market.</p><p>However, delisting, policy supervision, and the peak of industry growth may be only the superficial reasons for the decline of Chinese concept stocks. The deep-seated reason is that the underlying valuation logic has changed.</p><p>When common prosperity is placed in an important position, when economic development changes from high speed to high quality, and the distribution system also shifts from giving priority to efficiency to taking into account fairness, in this context, the market valuation system may be reshaped.</p><p>The ghost story that firm holders of Chinese concept stocks are most afraid of hearing is that the Internet will become a public utility. As we all know, technology stocks tend to grow fast, have huge industry space, and the market is willing to give them high valuations; On the contrary, public utility companies are not so sexy in terms of performance growth rate or industry space. If this change really happens, Internet companies are bound to encounter the double-kill pressure of performance and valuation.</p><p>Compared with the simple and straightforward performance, the company's valuation is too vague, which is often a matter of opinion. The biggest problem currently encountered by Internet companies is how much they are worth and how to give valuations when the market environment changes drastically. Market participants have not yet reached a consensus, and there is no reference standard. In the view of Jiang Cheng of Zhongtai Asset Management, the reason behind it is the absence of \"value anchor\".</p><p>Although the haze of delisting has not dissipated, and the original valuation logic may be overturned and started over, in the face of Internet companies whose stock prices are frequently cut in half and whose valuations have entered historically low ranges, bargain-hunting funds can be described as going forward one after another.</p><p><b>02. Domestic capital buying platform</b></p><p>Deng Xiaofeng, chief investment officer of Gaoyi Assets, shared his views on the Internet industry when communicating with investors online at the beginning of this year.</p><p>In his view, the Internet industry is similar to the liquor industry in 2012 and 2013. At that time, affected by the \"eight regulations\" and the \"plasticizer\" incident, liquor stocks continued to adjust and did not begin to recover until 2016, but this did not hinder the long-term high returns of this industry, because liquor itself is a good business. The business model of the Internet is also very good. When the industry is stable, it is easy to create considerable returns for shareholders.</p><p>He believes that when the impact of external factors on Internet companies in Chinese concept stocks reaches its maximum, there is a high probability that the industry will perform the worst in the capital market. He asserted that although the space and timing of the upside of the Internet industry are uncertain, the Internet is at least an industry with little downside risk this year.</p><p>In this round of panic decline in early March, it is unknown whether Deng Xiaofeng bought Chinese concept stocks at the bottom, but his optimistic expectations for the Internet industry are undoubtedly representative. \"Chinese Buffett\" Duan Yongping is also a loyal believer in Chinese concept stocks. He once bucked the trend in the Internet bubble and became famous in NetEase. Now, in addition to \"venture capital\" Pinduoduo, the most talked about by the outside world is his bargain-hunting Tencent.</p><p>In 2018, Tencent's stock price plummeted due to issues such as the suspension of game version numbers, with a drop of more than 40% in just a few months. Duan Yongping took the opportunity to get on the bus. Last year, Tencent was criticized as \"spiritual opium\", and its stock price plummeted by nearly 40% again. On August 4th, Duan Yongping said on Xueqiu (ID: The road is invisible, I have style) that he bought Tencent, and then continued to buy it when it fell again, buying the bottom for the second time. On February 28 this year, some snowball fans teased that Tencent reached the bottom of the road again. Duan Yongping replied, \"It's lower than the price I bought last time, so I'll buy some tomorrow.\" Since then, he has repeatedly expressed his optimism about Tencent.</p><p>On March 8th, in response to a question from a netizen, he said, \"There is no plan to increase the position (every) 10% drop.\" On March 14th, he said that in another week or two, some Apple puts should expire, and then he can consider buying more; The next morning, he claimed that \"I'm going to exchange Berkshire B shares for Tencent tomorrow, and I won't wait.\" Those words may be more like jokes, though. He once said that Tencent's attraction to him is not enough to let him sell any other stocks in exchange, and he may have to think about it seriously if he falls a few more times.</p><p>In the past few years, Tencent has been widely criticized for its game business. As the founder of the game learning machine \"Little Overlord\", Duan Yongping has different views on games. He once explained the reason for buying Tencent. In his view, the most fundamental thing of games is to spend time and get happiness, and online games are the most cost-effective way for most people to get simple happiness. There is no difference between games and other consumer goods, and there is no problem of conscience. If calculated in 10 years, holding Maotai and Tencent should be better than holding cash.</p><p>Even Duan Yongping, a high-profile bargain-hunter of Tencent, still holds a very low proportion of Tencent. In contrast,<b>Some domestic public offering products are the backbone of heavy positions or bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks against the trend.</b></p><p>For example, SDIC UBS China Value Discovery has been holding heavy positions in Tencent Holdings and Alibaba. In the fourth quarter of last year, it also increased its position in the latter, and is currently the first and second heavy positions respectively. Fund manager Tang Haibo said that he is optimistic about platform-based Internet companies whose valuations are currently at historically low levels due to continuous policy suppression in the past year. He believes that there is still plenty of room for development in these industries, and believes in the competitive advantages of leading Chinese Internet companies on a global scale.</p><p>Zhang Jun, manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan Asia Pacific Advantage Fund, also said that the forward P/E of Chinese concept stocks is about 13 times, while that of the US stock market is more than 20 times. Chinese stocks aren't expensive. Even if P/E simply stays at current levels, the expected economic expansion should propel company earnings up significantly in the coming years.</p><p>Hu Yaosheng, manager of Chuangjin Hexin Hong Kong Stock Internet Fund, put forward the logic of being optimistic about the Internet industry from the perspective of performance. He said in the Four Seasons Report that the revenue side of core Internet companies still maintains a high growth rate. Although the profit side is not ideal, it is not that there is a problem with the company's operation, and there is no risk in the fundamentals. And the current decline in stock prices is somewhat overreacted. In the fourth quarter, he \"recharged\" his cognition with real money and increased his positions in stocks such as Meituan, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu Group.</p><p>After counting Public Offering of Fund's heavy holdings, it is found that Internet leaders and platform companies are still the first choice for domestic capital layout, even for QDII funds with a wider investment range. Specifically, leading stocks such as Tencent, Meituan, Ali, and JD.com have become a must-weight stock for many funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ef80ff846d568d3767f826d9465a9f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Domestic investors know China and Chinese companies best. The fair value of Internet companies may not be judged, but many of these companies are good companies, which many people believe. The more they fall, the more they buy. Looking at the prolonged cycle, they may only lose time.</p><p>What's more, when the margin of safety has dropped significantly enough, even overseas investors in foreign countries have gradually reached a consensus on the issue of bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><b>03. Foreign institutions love to play with cars</b></p><p>The 97-year-old Munger has never concealed his optimism about the Chinese economy and Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>According to the 13F document disclosed not long ago, as of the end of December 2021, Charlie Munger's company DailyJournalCorp (Daily Journal) has accumulated 602,060 shares of Alibaba through American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), with a market value of approximately US $72 million. Accounting for about 28%, it is the company's third largest holding.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc040ddf768d01d0aea9c221812efaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that compared with the third quarter of last year, the number of Alibaba shares purchased by daily journals in the fourth quarter nearly doubled. Such a large increase in positions shows that Munger truly loves Alibaba and has a true love for the Chinese economy and Internet. Confidence is not just lip service.</p><p>In the first quarter of last year, Ali's stock price plummeted, and Munger bought 165,320 shares for the first time; In the second quarter, Ali's stock price fluctuated little. He did not rush to increase his position, but maintained his previous position unchanged; In the third quarter, Ali fell nearly 35% in a single quarter. Munger made another move, buying 136,740 shares, and the total number of shares held also rose to 300,000 shares; In the fourth quarter, Ali fell by nearly 20%. This time, he chose to strike hard and bought 300,000 shares in one go.</p><p>Although the price falls more and more, the cost of holding positions continues to dilute, but premature bargain-hunting still makes Munger somewhat passive in this investment. So much so that at the recent daily journal shareholders' meeting, issues such as his views on Chinese concept stocks and Alibaba were repeatedly mentioned by shareholders.</p><p>In response to questions from shareholders, Munger said that the reason why he invested in Chinese companies was that he could buy more value. Some Chinese companies are not only cheaper, but also more competitive. Compared with the investment opportunities in the United States, the investment opportunities in China are better, and you can buy at a cheaper price and obtain higher company value.<b>He doesn't think Alibaba's ownership structure is a particularly big risk, but feels that its moat is not as deep as Apple and Alphabet.</b></p><p>In fact, Munger is not alone on the road of bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Pioneer Pilot Group, which is familiar to domestic investors, bought 74 Chinese concept stocks in the fourth quarter of last year, all of which are new positions. The stocks with the highest market value include Baidu, Nio, XPeng Automobile, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, etc.; However, Vanguard Group did not buy the established retail e-commerce leaders such as Alibaba and JD.com, but chose the rising star Pinduoduo.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06055d73f7cf1860d227a11b89cbf027\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the fourth quarter, BlackRock increased and decreased Chinese concept stocks, increased its holdings of 63 Chinese concept stocks, reduced or cleared its holdings of 66 Chinese concept stocks, and newly bought Red, Yellow, Blue, Dingdong Maicai, etc. 4 Chinese concept stocks. Among them, Nio, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, Alibaba and other stocks have all increased their holdings, while Baidu, Yum China, and XPeng Automobile have been slightly reduced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d9672340b514df2dd4c24c6fa6910d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Interestingly, well-known foreign-funded institutions such as State Street, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Norwegian Central Bank, Goldman Sachs Group, etc. have shown strong interest in China's \"new car-making forces\". In the fourth quarter, they have increased their holdings of related companies, among which Nio has received the highest attention, with 149 institutions increasing their holdings and 189 institutions newly bought.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ad4f29b0386e4aa8a269f32a110be5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From the perspective of the number of shareholding institutions, Alibaba has the largest number of foreign investors stationed in it, reaching 1,287, a slight decrease from the third quarter; In addition, Yum! China, JD.com, Baidu, and Nio all hold more than 500 shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/010e1c582eed020439cd680854100f5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Of course, for Chinese concept stocks, especially Chinese Internet companies that are at the forefront of anti-monopoly, there are differences among foreign-funded institutions. But for some good companies, especially high-quality companies that are growing rapidly in the Chinese market, they have never been stingy with the bullets in their hands, such as Pinduoduo, a new car-making force, which started as a sinking market.</p><p><b>04. Epilogue</b></p><p>Duan Yongping was once asked by a reporter, when NetEase fell to only $0.8, where did you get the courage to buy it? He asked rhetorically, what was originally worth 10 yuan, now someone crying and shouting to sell it to you for 1 yuan. Does it take any courage?</p><p>When the price is significantly lower than the value of the enterprise, bargain hunting certainly does not require courage and courage, but it requires bullets.</p><p>Many times, investment will fall into the dilemma of \"you can know it at a glance, but you can't learn it as soon as you learn it\". The reason is not only related to ability, but also the lack of freedom of funds. Most people don't have the ability to judge the value of a company, and stock price bottoming and value discovery usually don't come at the same time.</p><p>After all, there was only one Duan Yongping, but there were many people who fell in the darkness before dawn.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Internet Fog: What do you believe in?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Internet Fog: What do you believe in?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川投资评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-27 08:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In recent years, institutions have worked hard to educate Christians to \"buy more and more\", but it seems that only Zhonggai Internet can make everyone scold and change its name to \"Mutual Pity of Chinese Beggars\" while paying obediently.</p><p>On February 18, 2021, the on-site price of (E Fund) Zhonggai Internet ETF hit a record high. At that time, the share of this fund was less than 3.5 billion shares, and the product was far less famous than it is now. Unexpectedly, during the subsequent decline in net value and on-market prices, the share of this fund increased instead of decreasing, increasing more than 10 times in more than a year, approaching 35.5 billion shares. (Bank of Communications) Zhonggai Internet LOF, (GF) Zhonggai Internet ETF, Hang Seng Technology ETF and other index funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks and the Internet have achieved a great leap forward during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002c4daa1600178dc042fd90aa7fe201\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Investors who are accustomed to conspiracy theories will think without hesitation that 80% of these \"suicidal\" bargain-hunting behaviors are luring leeks to go deeper. Actually, it's not.</p><p>Wind data shows that when the share and scale of (E Fund) Zhonggai Internet ETF are rising against the trend, the proportion of institutional holdings is rising slightly, and the proportion of internal holdings is also rising slightly. This shows that not only institutional funds, but also insiders of fund companies Personnel are also constantly buying bottoms during the decline of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275016ee3f4b499c5320654bfaa41997\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>When domestic funds are full of enthusiasm for bargain hunting, foreign capital is hit head-on. The 13F report shows that many foreign investors such as Goldman Sachs, Temasek, BlackRock, and JPMorgan Chase have reduced their holdings of leading Chinese concept stocks such as Alibaba. The five Chinese concept stocks were even included in the \"pre-delisting list\" by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. JPMorgan Chase gave a \"sell rating\" to Chinese concept stocks in batches, and the cold ice rain pressed the bulls on the ground and rubbed them repeatedly.</p><p>Some people get on the bus and buy more and more as they fall, while others get off the boat and leave the market at the expense of cutting their meat. The huge differences seem to make the future of Chinese concept stocks even more confusing.</p><p>This article mainly answers the reasons for the decline of Chinese concept stocks and what domestic and foreign funds bought at the bottom. It is divided into three parts:</p><p>1) Reveal: Why did Chinese concept stocks plummet?</p><p>2) Bottom-hunting: domestic funds buy \"platforms\"</p><p>3) Change: Overseas institutions love to play with cars</p><p><b>01. Why did it fall sharply?</b></p><p>\"Just out of ICU, I entered KTV again\", the recent performance of Chinese concept stocks is almost crazy. However, short-lived joy can't soothe the wounded hearts of investors.</p><p>Wind data shows that as of the close on March 21, 231 of the 370 Chinese concept stocks have fallen this year, accounting for 62%; Among them, there are 29 stocks whose stock prices have been cut in half, and Tiandihui and Juhao Mall both fell by nearly 90%. In a market without rise and fall limits, it is so unrestrained when it falls.</p><p>If we count the decline of the stock price from its high point so far, the situation is even more tragic. For example, Alibaba, which currently has the largest market value in the Chinese concept stock market, hit a record high of US $319.32 at the end of October 2020, but now its stock price is less than 1/3 of that at that time, with a drop of as much as 67%, and the lowest during the period fell to US $73.28; Baidu, Pinduoduo and other Chinese concept stocks have all fallen by more than 50% since the high point, and even JD.com, which is more resilient to decline, has fallen by 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693d152af3bc7480f2d07bf9b4e2479d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1047\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The stock prices of Internet companies such as Tencent Holdings, Meituan, and Xiaomi listed on the Hong Kong stock market have also been losing ground, falling to the point that shareholders don't even recognize them.</p><p>This round of adjustment of Chinese concept stocks, with a large decline, a long cycle, and a wide scope, is rare in history. The reasons behind it must not be simply explained by performance. Behind the near destruction of the group, there are four words: internal troubles and external troubles.</p><p>As we all know, the biggest \"external trouble\" faced by Chinese concept stocks is the risk of delisting.</p><p>According to the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act passed by the U.S. Congress in 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is allowed to delist a foreign listed company from the exchange if it fails to submit the report required by the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board for three consecutive years; These include the unequal requirement that foreign companies listed in the United States disclose audit papers.</p><p>On March 10 this year, the SEC included five Chinese concept stock companies in the tentative list of the \"Foreign Company Accountability Act\", which once again triggered a wave of selling in Chinese concept stocks and made investors have a more intuitive understanding of the lethality of delisting. feel. The risk of delisting is, in the final analysis, a crisis of confidence, and the pressure on Chinese concept stocks mainly comes from two aspects:</p><p>First, concerns about liquidity discounts. U.S. stocks are a global market with flooding liquidity. The premium of listing in the United States is relatively high, and the financing efficiency is higher; In contrast, the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is not so abundant, and the premium of listing in Hong Kong is low. After Chinese concept stocks are delisted in the United States, they are transferred to Hong Kong stocks, which tests the ability of domestic investors to undertake, and there may be liquidity discount risks.</p><p>Second, the pressure of US dollar investors to concentrate on selling. At present, there are still a large number of overseas institutions among shareholders of Chinese concept stocks. If these companies delist from the US stock market, it will inevitably trigger a large-scale sell-off by overseas investors.</p><p>The house leaks and it rains all night. The sword of delisting is still hanging, and the tightening of domestic industry regulatory policies has cast an unpredictable shadow over the prospects of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>In the past year or so, policies such as anti-monopoly in the Internet industry, \"double reduction\" in the education industry, and new regulations on anti-addiction to online games have been introduced one after another. Although the starting point of these policies is good, not to suppress individual industries and enterprises, it takes time for overseas investors to adjust their domestic policy expectations, which can easily lead to short-term market overreaction, sudden drop in risk appetite and panic decline.</p><p>In the communication with some fund managers, I found that there is another voice about the reason for the decline of Chinese concept stocks. Some people think that after years of development, the penetration rate of the Internet is very high, and the development of the industry has entered the second half. In recent years, the growth logic of the Internet industry is that the market is sinking, but the entire industry space may have approached the \"ceiling\". It is expected that the future industry growth rate will peak and fall back.</p><p>In other words, the rapid growth period of the Internet industry has passed, and it will enter a mature period in the future, and the imagination space of valuation has become smaller. Although this view is somewhat \"hindsight\", it undoubtedly aggravates the pessimistic expectations of the market.</p><p>However, delisting, policy supervision, and the peak of industry growth may be only the superficial reasons for the decline of Chinese concept stocks. The deep-seated reason is that the underlying valuation logic has changed.</p><p>When common prosperity is placed in an important position, when economic development changes from high speed to high quality, and the distribution system also shifts from giving priority to efficiency to taking into account fairness, in this context, the market valuation system may be reshaped.</p><p>The ghost story that firm holders of Chinese concept stocks are most afraid of hearing is that the Internet will become a public utility. As we all know, technology stocks tend to grow fast, have huge industry space, and the market is willing to give them high valuations; On the contrary, public utility companies are not so sexy in terms of performance growth rate or industry space. If this change really happens, Internet companies are bound to encounter the double-kill pressure of performance and valuation.</p><p>Compared with the simple and straightforward performance, the company's valuation is too vague, which is often a matter of opinion. The biggest problem currently encountered by Internet companies is how much they are worth and how to give valuations when the market environment changes drastically. Market participants have not yet reached a consensus, and there is no reference standard. In the view of Jiang Cheng of Zhongtai Asset Management, the reason behind it is the absence of \"value anchor\".</p><p>Although the haze of delisting has not dissipated, and the original valuation logic may be overturned and started over, in the face of Internet companies whose stock prices are frequently cut in half and whose valuations have entered historically low ranges, bargain-hunting funds can be described as going forward one after another.</p><p><b>02. Domestic capital buying platform</b></p><p>Deng Xiaofeng, chief investment officer of Gaoyi Assets, shared his views on the Internet industry when communicating with investors online at the beginning of this year.</p><p>In his view, the Internet industry is similar to the liquor industry in 2012 and 2013. At that time, affected by the \"eight regulations\" and the \"plasticizer\" incident, liquor stocks continued to adjust and did not begin to recover until 2016, but this did not hinder the long-term high returns of this industry, because liquor itself is a good business. The business model of the Internet is also very good. When the industry is stable, it is easy to create considerable returns for shareholders.</p><p>He believes that when the impact of external factors on Internet companies in Chinese concept stocks reaches its maximum, there is a high probability that the industry will perform the worst in the capital market. He asserted that although the space and timing of the upside of the Internet industry are uncertain, the Internet is at least an industry with little downside risk this year.</p><p>In this round of panic decline in early March, it is unknown whether Deng Xiaofeng bought Chinese concept stocks at the bottom, but his optimistic expectations for the Internet industry are undoubtedly representative. \"Chinese Buffett\" Duan Yongping is also a loyal believer in Chinese concept stocks. He once bucked the trend in the Internet bubble and became famous in NetEase. Now, in addition to \"venture capital\" Pinduoduo, the most talked about by the outside world is his bargain-hunting Tencent.</p><p>In 2018, Tencent's stock price plummeted due to issues such as the suspension of game version numbers, with a drop of more than 40% in just a few months. Duan Yongping took the opportunity to get on the bus. Last year, Tencent was criticized as \"spiritual opium\", and its stock price plummeted by nearly 40% again. On August 4th, Duan Yongping said on Xueqiu (ID: The road is invisible, I have style) that he bought Tencent, and then continued to buy it when it fell again, buying the bottom for the second time. On February 28 this year, some snowball fans teased that Tencent reached the bottom of the road again. Duan Yongping replied, \"It's lower than the price I bought last time, so I'll buy some tomorrow.\" Since then, he has repeatedly expressed his optimism about Tencent.</p><p>On March 8th, in response to a question from a netizen, he said, \"There is no plan to increase the position (every) 10% drop.\" On March 14th, he said that in another week or two, some Apple puts should expire, and then he can consider buying more; The next morning, he claimed that \"I'm going to exchange Berkshire B shares for Tencent tomorrow, and I won't wait.\" Those words may be more like jokes, though. He once said that Tencent's attraction to him is not enough to let him sell any other stocks in exchange, and he may have to think about it seriously if he falls a few more times.</p><p>In the past few years, Tencent has been widely criticized for its game business. As the founder of the game learning machine \"Little Overlord\", Duan Yongping has different views on games. He once explained the reason for buying Tencent. In his view, the most fundamental thing of games is to spend time and get happiness, and online games are the most cost-effective way for most people to get simple happiness. There is no difference between games and other consumer goods, and there is no problem of conscience. If calculated in 10 years, holding Maotai and Tencent should be better than holding cash.</p><p>Even Duan Yongping, a high-profile bargain-hunter of Tencent, still holds a very low proportion of Tencent. In contrast,<b>Some domestic public offering products are the backbone of heavy positions or bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks against the trend.</b></p><p>For example, SDIC UBS China Value Discovery has been holding heavy positions in Tencent Holdings and Alibaba. In the fourth quarter of last year, it also increased its position in the latter, and is currently the first and second heavy positions respectively. Fund manager Tang Haibo said that he is optimistic about platform-based Internet companies whose valuations are currently at historically low levels due to continuous policy suppression in the past year. He believes that there is still plenty of room for development in these industries, and believes in the competitive advantages of leading Chinese Internet companies on a global scale.</p><p>Zhang Jun, manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan Asia Pacific Advantage Fund, also said that the forward P/E of Chinese concept stocks is about 13 times, while that of the US stock market is more than 20 times. Chinese stocks aren't expensive. Even if P/E simply stays at current levels, the expected economic expansion should propel company earnings up significantly in the coming years.</p><p>Hu Yaosheng, manager of Chuangjin Hexin Hong Kong Stock Internet Fund, put forward the logic of being optimistic about the Internet industry from the perspective of performance. He said in the Four Seasons Report that the revenue side of core Internet companies still maintains a high growth rate. Although the profit side is not ideal, it is not that there is a problem with the company's operation, and there is no risk in the fundamentals. And the current decline in stock prices is somewhat overreacted. In the fourth quarter, he \"recharged\" his cognition with real money and increased his positions in stocks such as Meituan, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu Group.</p><p>After counting Public Offering of Fund's heavy holdings, it is found that Internet leaders and platform companies are still the first choice for domestic capital layout, even for QDII funds with a wider investment range. Specifically, leading stocks such as Tencent, Meituan, Ali, and JD.com have become a must-weight stock for many funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ef80ff846d568d3767f826d9465a9f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Domestic investors know China and Chinese companies best. The fair value of Internet companies may not be judged, but many of these companies are good companies, which many people believe. The more they fall, the more they buy. Looking at the prolonged cycle, they may only lose time.</p><p>What's more, when the margin of safety has dropped significantly enough, even overseas investors in foreign countries have gradually reached a consensus on the issue of bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><b>03. Foreign institutions love to play with cars</b></p><p>The 97-year-old Munger has never concealed his optimism about the Chinese economy and Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>According to the 13F document disclosed not long ago, as of the end of December 2021, Charlie Munger's company DailyJournalCorp (Daily Journal) has accumulated 602,060 shares of Alibaba through American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), with a market value of approximately US $72 million. Accounting for about 28%, it is the company's third largest holding.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc040ddf768d01d0aea9c221812efaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that compared with the third quarter of last year, the number of Alibaba shares purchased by daily journals in the fourth quarter nearly doubled. Such a large increase in positions shows that Munger truly loves Alibaba and has a true love for the Chinese economy and Internet. Confidence is not just lip service.</p><p>In the first quarter of last year, Ali's stock price plummeted, and Munger bought 165,320 shares for the first time; In the second quarter, Ali's stock price fluctuated little. He did not rush to increase his position, but maintained his previous position unchanged; In the third quarter, Ali fell nearly 35% in a single quarter. Munger made another move, buying 136,740 shares, and the total number of shares held also rose to 300,000 shares; In the fourth quarter, Ali fell by nearly 20%. This time, he chose to strike hard and bought 300,000 shares in one go.</p><p>Although the price falls more and more, the cost of holding positions continues to dilute, but premature bargain-hunting still makes Munger somewhat passive in this investment. So much so that at the recent daily journal shareholders' meeting, issues such as his views on Chinese concept stocks and Alibaba were repeatedly mentioned by shareholders.</p><p>In response to questions from shareholders, Munger said that the reason why he invested in Chinese companies was that he could buy more value. Some Chinese companies are not only cheaper, but also more competitive. Compared with the investment opportunities in the United States, the investment opportunities in China are better, and you can buy at a cheaper price and obtain higher company value.<b>He doesn't think Alibaba's ownership structure is a particularly big risk, but feels that its moat is not as deep as Apple and Alphabet.</b></p><p>In fact, Munger is not alone on the road of bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Pioneer Pilot Group, which is familiar to domestic investors, bought 74 Chinese concept stocks in the fourth quarter of last year, all of which are new positions. The stocks with the highest market value include Baidu, Nio, XPeng Automobile, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, etc.; However, Vanguard Group did not buy the established retail e-commerce leaders such as Alibaba and JD.com, but chose the rising star Pinduoduo.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06055d73f7cf1860d227a11b89cbf027\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the fourth quarter, BlackRock increased and decreased Chinese concept stocks, increased its holdings of 63 Chinese concept stocks, reduced or cleared its holdings of 66 Chinese concept stocks, and newly bought Red, Yellow, Blue, Dingdong Maicai, etc. 4 Chinese concept stocks. Among them, Nio, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, Alibaba and other stocks have all increased their holdings, while Baidu, Yum China, and XPeng Automobile have been slightly reduced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d9672340b514df2dd4c24c6fa6910d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Interestingly, well-known foreign-funded institutions such as State Street, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Norwegian Central Bank, Goldman Sachs Group, etc. have shown strong interest in China's \"new car-making forces\". In the fourth quarter, they have increased their holdings of related companies, among which Nio has received the highest attention, with 149 institutions increasing their holdings and 189 institutions newly bought.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ad4f29b0386e4aa8a269f32a110be5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From the perspective of the number of shareholding institutions, Alibaba has the largest number of foreign investors stationed in it, reaching 1,287, a slight decrease from the third quarter; In addition, Yum! China, JD.com, Baidu, and Nio all hold more than 500 shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/010e1c582eed020439cd680854100f5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Of course, for Chinese concept stocks, especially Chinese Internet companies that are at the forefront of anti-monopoly, there are differences among foreign-funded institutions. But for some good companies, especially high-quality companies that are growing rapidly in the Chinese market, they have never been stingy with the bullets in their hands, such as Pinduoduo, a new car-making force, which started as a sinking market.</p><p><b>04. Epilogue</b></p><p>Duan Yongping was once asked by a reporter, when NetEase fell to only $0.8, where did you get the courage to buy it? He asked rhetorically, what was originally worth 10 yuan, now someone crying and shouting to sell it to you for 1 yuan. Does it take any courage?</p><p>When the price is significantly lower than the value of the enterprise, bargain hunting certainly does not require courage and courage, but it requires bullets.</p><p>Many times, investment will fall into the dilemma of \"you can know it at a glance, but you can't learn it as soon as you learn it\". The reason is not only related to ability, but also the lack of freedom of funds. Most people don't have the ability to judge the value of a company, and stock price bottoming and value discovery usually don't come at the same time.</p><p>After all, there was only one Duan Yongping, but there were many people who fell in the darkness before dawn.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XPCA4w1aSfUe4N1SA4X6-g\">远川投资评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00745cd781f91ef6ef359064c639fbb","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XPCA4w1aSfUe4N1SA4X6-g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104202250","content_text":"这些年，机构苦口婆心教育基民“越跌越买”，但似乎只有中概互联，能让大家一边痛骂不如改名“中丐互怜”，一边乖乖掏钱。2021年2月18日，（易方达）中概互联网ETF场内价格创出历史新高。当时，这只基金的份额不到35亿份，产品的名气远没有现在这么大。没想到的是，在随后净值和场内价格持续下跌过程中，这只基金的份额不减反增，1年多时间翻了10倍以上，直逼355亿份。（交银）中概互联网LOF、（广发）中概互联ETF、恒生科技ETF等可投港股互联网的指数基金，份额在这期间都实现了大跃进。这种“自杀式”的抄底行为，习惯了阴谋论的投资者们会不假思索地认为，八成又是机构在诱韭菜深入。其实并非如此。Wind 数据显示，在（易方达）中概互联网ETF份额和规模逆势攀升之际，机构持有比例在小幅上升，而且内部持有比例也在小幅升高，这说明不仅是机构资金，基金公司内部人员也在中概股下跌的过程中不断抄底。当国内资金抄底热情满满，外资却迎头一棒。13F报告显示，高盛、淡马锡、贝莱德、摩根大通等多家外资减持了阿里巴巴等中概股龙头。而5家中概股更被美国证监会列入“预摘牌名单”，摩根大通对中概股批量给出“卖出评级”，冷冷冰雨把多头按在地上反复摩擦。有人上车，越跌越买，有人下船，不惜割肉离场。巨大的分歧，似乎让中概股的未来更加扑朔迷离。本文主要回答中概股下跌的原因，以及国内外资金抄底都买了什么，一共分为三个部分：1）揭秘：中概股为何大跌？2）抄底：国内资金买“平台”3）变化：海外机构爱玩车01、缘何大跌？“刚出ICU，又进KTV”，中概股最近的表现几近癫狂。不过，短暂的欢愉并不能抚慰投资者受伤的心。Wind数据显示，截至3月21日收盘，370只中概股中有231只今年以来下跌，占比62%；其中，股价腰斩的个股29只，天地荟、聚好商城跌幅均逼近90%。没有涨跌板限制的市场，跌起来就是这么奔放。若统计股价高点至今的跌幅，情况更为惨烈。比如，目前中概股市值最大的阿里巴巴，2020年10月底曾创出了319.32美元的历史最高价，而如今股价不到当时的1/3，跌幅高达67%，期间最低跌至73.28美元；百度、拼多多等中概股自高点以来的跌幅均在50%以上，即使是较为抗跌的京东跌幅也达到40%。在港股上市的腾讯控股、美团、小米等互联网公司，股价也节节败退，跌到股东都不认识。中概股这轮调整，下跌幅度之大、周期之长、波及范围之广历史罕见，背后原因肯定不能简单的用业绩来解释。近乎团灭的背后，总的就是四个字：内忧外患。众所周知，中概股面临的最大“外患”就是退市风险。根据美国国会2020年通过的《外国公司问责法案》，如果外国上市公司连续三年未能提交美国上市公司会计监督委员会所要求的报告，允许美国证监会（SEC）将其从交易所摘牌；其中就包括在美上市的外国公司需要披露审计底稿的不对等要求。今年3月10日，SEC将5家中概股公司列入《外国公司问责法》的暂定清单，再次引发了中概股的抛售潮，让投资者对退市的杀伤力有了更直观的感受。退市风险，说到底是信任危机，对中概股造成的压力主要来自于两个方面：一是，对流动性折价的担忧。美股是一个全球性的市场，流动性泛滥，在美上市的溢价比较高，融资效率更高；与之相比，港股流动性没有那么充裕，在港上市的溢价较低。中概股在美退市后转到港股上市，考验着国内投资者的承接能力，可能存在流动性折价风险。二是，美元投资者集中抛售的压力。目前中概股股东中仍有大量的海外机构，若这些公司从美股退市，势必会引发海外投资者的大规模抛售。屋漏偏逢连夜雨。退市之剑悬而未落，国内行业监管政策的收紧，又给中概股的前景蒙着捉摸不透的阴影。在过去一年多里，互联网行业反垄断、教育行业“双减”、网络游戏防沉迷新规等政策陆续出台。尽管这些政策的出发点都是好的，并非为了打压个别行业和企业，但海外投资者对国内政策预期调整需要时间，容易导致市场短期过度反应，风险偏好骤降，出现恐慌式下跌。在与一些基金经理的交流中发现，对于中概股下跌的原因，还有另外一种声音。有人认为，经过多年发展，互联网的渗透率非常高，行业发展进入后半段，近几年互联网行业的增长逻辑是市场下沉，但整个行业空间或许已经逼近“天花板”，预计未来行业增速将见顶回落。换句话说，互联网行业高速成长期已经过去了，未来将进入成熟期，估值的想象空间变小了。这样的看法虽然有些“马后炮”，但无疑加重了市场的悲观预期。不过，退市、政策监管，以及行业增速见顶，可能都只是中概股下跌的表层原因，深层次的原因在于底层估值逻辑发生了变化。当共同富裕摆在了重要的位置，当经济发展从高速度转变为高质量，分配制度也从效率优先到兼顾公平，在此背景下，市场的估值体系可能被重塑。中概股的坚定持有者们最怕听到的鬼故事，就是互联网要变为公共事业。众所周知，科技股往往增速快，行业空间巨大，市场也愿意给它们高估值；相反，公共事业公司无论是业绩增速，还是行业空间，都没有那么性感。如果真的发生这种改变，互联网公司势必会遇到业绩和估值的双杀压力。相比业绩的简单直白，公司估值要模糊太多，常常是见仁见智。互联网公司当前遇到的最大问题是，当市场环境发生剧烈改变后，它们到底值多少钱，估值应该怎么给，市场参与者还没有形成共识，也没有一个可参考的标准。在中泰资管姜诚看来，隐藏在背后的原因是“价值锚”的缺位。尽管退市阴霾未散，原有估值逻辑也有可能被推倒重来，但是面对股价动辄腰斩、估值进入历史较低区间的互联网公司，抄底资金可谓是前赴后继。02、国内资金买「平台」高毅资产首席投资官邓晓峰在今年初与投资者线上交流时分享了自己对互联网行业的看法。在他看来，互联网行业类似2012、2013年时的白酒行业。当时受“八项规定”和“塑化剂”事件的影响，白酒股持续调整，直到2016年才开始复苏，但这并不妨碍这个行业长期的高回报，因为白酒本身是一门好生意。互联网的商业模式也非常优秀，当行业稳定之后，很容易为股东创造可观的回报。他认为，外部因素对中概股互联网公司影响达到最大值的时候，大概率是行业在资本市场表现最差的时候。他断言，尽管互联网行业上行的空间和时间尚不确定，但今年互联网至少是一个下行风险很小的行业。在3月初这轮恐慌性下跌中，邓晓峰有没有抄底中概股不得而知，但他对于互联网行业的乐观预期无疑是具有代表性的。“中国巴菲特”段永平也是中概股的忠实信徒，曾在互联网泡沫中逆势抄底网易一战成名，如今除了“风投”拼多多之外，外界最为津津乐道的还是他抄底腾讯。2018年，腾讯因游戏版号停发等问题股价暴跌，短短几个月跌幅超40%，段永平趁机上车。去年，腾讯被批为“精神鸦片”，股价再次大跌近40%。段永平8月4日在雪球（ID：大道无形我有型）上称买了腾讯，再跌继续买，二度抄底。今年2月28日，有雪球粉丝调侃，腾讯又到了大道底。段永平回复称，“低过我上次买的价钱了，那明天再买点”。此后，他还多次表达了对腾讯的看好。3月8日，他在回复网友提问时表示，“计划没（每）掉10%加一次仓”。3月14日，他表示再过一两个礼拜，应该还有些苹果的put到期，到时可以考虑再买点；次日上午，他又声称“明天准备拿伯克希尔B股换点腾讯，不等了”。不过，这些话可能更像开玩笑。他曾表示，腾讯对他的吸引力还没到让他卖掉任何别的股票去换的地步，再跌几次说不定就要认真想想了。过去几年，腾讯因游戏业务广受诟病。作为游戏学习机“小霸王”的缔造者，段永平对游戏有着不同的看法。他曾经解释过买腾讯的理由。在他看来，游戏最根本的东西是消费时间并获得快乐，而网络游戏是大多数人获取简单快乐最具有性价比的办法。游戏和其他消费品没有任何差别，并不存在良知的问题。如果以10年计，拿着茅台和腾讯应该比拿着现金好。即使是高调抄底腾讯的段永平，持有腾讯的比重还很低。相比之下，国内一些公募产品才是重仓持有或是逆势抄底中概股的中坚力量。比如，国投瑞银中国价值发现一直重仓持有腾讯控股和阿里巴巴，去年四季度还加仓了后者，目前分别为第一和第二重仓。基金经理汤海波表示，看好过去 一年中受持续政策打压，目前估值处于历史低位的平台型互联网公司。他认为这些行业仍有充足的发展空间，并相信中国互联网龙头公司在全球范围内的竞争优势。上投摩根亚太优势基金经理张军也表示，中概股的远期市盈率约为13倍，而美国股市则超过20倍。中国股票并不昂贵。即使市盈率只是停留在目前水平，预期的经济扩张应该会推动公司收益在未来几年大幅上升。创金合信港股互联网基金经理胡尧盛则从业绩角度提出了看好互联网行业的逻辑。他在四季报中表示，核心互联网公司收入端依然维持较高增速，虽然利润端不理想，但并非公司经营出了问题，基本面并没有出现风险。而当前股价下跌反应有些过度。他四季度真金白银为自己的认知“充值”，加仓了美团、腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、京东集团、百度集团等股票。统计公募基金重仓股后发现，互联网龙头、平台型公司仍是国内资金布局首选，即使是投资范围更广的QDII基金也是如此。具体来看，腾讯、美团、阿里、京东等龙头股成为很多基金必配重仓股。国内投资者最懂中国，也最懂中国的公司，互联网公司的公允价值可能无法判断，但这些公司中不少是好公司，这于这一点很多人深信不疑。他们越跌越买，拉长周期看，输的或许只是时间。更何况，当安全边际已经跌得足够明显，哪怕是异国他乡的海外投资者，也在抄底中概股这件事情上逐渐有了共识。03、国外机构爱玩车97岁的芒格对中国经济、中概股的看好从来不掩饰。根据不久前披露的13F文件显示，截至2021年12月底，查理·芒格旗下公司DailyJournalCorp（每日期刊）通过美国存托凭证(ADR)累积持有阿里巴巴602060股，持有市值约0.72亿美元，占比约28%，为公司第三大持仓。值得一提的是，与去年三季度相比，四季度每日期刊买入阿里巴巴的股票数量接近翻倍，如此大手笔的加仓，可见芒格对阿里巴巴是真爱，对中国经济、互联网的信心并非嘴上说说而已。去年一季度，阿里股价大跌，芒格首次买入了165320股；二季度阿里股价波动较小，他并没有急于加仓，只是维持之前的持仓不变；三季度阿里单季下跌近35%，芒格再次出手，买入136740股，持股总数也上升至30万股；四季度阿里又下跌了近20%，他这次选择了重拳出击，一口气买了30万股。尽管越跌越买，持仓成本不断摊薄，但过早的抄底，还是让芒格在这笔投资上有些被动。以至于在近期召开的每日期刊股东大会上，他对中概股、对阿里巴巴的看法之类的问题被股东们反复提到。芒格在回答股东提问时表示，之所以投资中国公司，是因为能够买到更多的价值。一些中国公司不仅价格便宜，而且竞争力更强。与美国的投资机会相比，中国的投资机会更好，而且能以更便宜的价格买入，获得更高的公司价值。他不觉得阿里巴巴的股权结构是一项特别大的风险，只是觉得其护城河没有苹果和Alphabet那么深。实际上，在抄底中概股的道路上，芒格并不孤单。国内投资者比较熟悉的先锋领航集团，去年四季度买入了74只中概股，而且均为新进持仓，持有市值排名靠前的个股包括百度、蔚来、小鹏汽车、拼多多、理想汽车等；但是，先锋集团没有买阿里巴巴、京东这些老牌零售电商龙头，而是选择了后起之秀拼多多。贝莱德四季度对中概股有增有减，对63只中概股进行了增持，对66只中概股进行了减持或清仓，另外新进买入红黄蓝、叮咚买菜等4只中概股。其中，蔚来、拼多多、理想汽车、阿里巴巴等个股均获得增持，百度、百胜中国、小鹏汽车虽被小幅减持。有意思的是，道富银行、摩根大通、纽约梅隆银行、挪威中央银行、高盛集团等知名外资机构，对中国“造车新势力”表现出了浓厚的兴趣，四季度纷纷增持了相关公司，其中蔚来受关注度最高，获得149家机构增持，189家机构新买入。若从持股机构数来看，阿里巴巴中驻扎的外资数量最多，达1287家，较三季度小幅下降；另外，百胜中国、京东、百度、蔚来持股机构数均超过500家。当然，对于中概股，尤其是处于反垄断风口浪尖的中国互联网公司，外资机构之间是有分歧的。但对于一些好公司，尤其是中国市场上快速成长的优质公司，他们从来不吝啬手里的子弹，比如造车新势力、以做下沉市场起家的拼多多。04、尾声段永平曾被记者问道，当年网易跌得仅剩0.8美元，你哪来的勇气敢买入？他反问道，原本值10块钱的东西，现在有人哭着喊着要以1块钱的价格卖给你，这还需要什么勇气吗？当价格显著低于企业价值时，抄底当然不需要勇气和胆识，但需要子弹。很多时候投资会陷入“一看就会，一学就废”的困境，原因既关乎能力，又在于资金的不自由。大多数人是不具备判断一家公司价值的能力的，而股价见底与价值发现通常不会同时到来。毕竟，段永平只有一个，但倒在了黎明前黑暗中的人，却有许多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935013164,"gmtCreate":1663019039458,"gmtModify":1676537180893,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935013164","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080127354,"gmtCreate":1649859664109,"gmtModify":1676534592024,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080127354","repostId":"2227169474","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2227169474","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649837512,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227169474?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-13 16:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Extreme polarization! U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and various sectors are all telling opposite \"stories\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227169474","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson指出，美股内部结构表现出严重的增长恐慌，而债券和标普500指数走势则反映增长尚可，然而这种背离是不可持续的，经济增长将令人失望。近期，美国股债市场的分化愈加","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Michael Wilson pointed out that the internal structure of U.S. stocks shows serious growth panic, while the trend of bonds and the S&P 500 index reflects acceptable growth. However, this divergence is unsustainable and economic growth will be disappointing.</b>Recently, the differentiation of the U.S. stock and bond markets has become more and more obvious. U.S. bonds continue to be sold off, but U.S. stocks remain strong. Not only that, there is also a serious differentiation within the U.S. stock market. Growth stocks have suffered a severe impact from rate hike expectations, while defensive stocks have significantly outperformed cyclical stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6c2f1398679b7ae8673a31065e432a7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some analysts have also noticed the intensified divergence between U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the internal structure of U.S. stocks. U.S. stock shorts,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Michael Wilson pointed out in a note on Monday that the bond market and the S&P 500 index are too optimistic about the economic outlook.</p><p>Michael Wilson mentions in his report:</p><p>We have an example of extreme polarization. The internal structure of U.S. stocks shows serious growth concerns and panics, while the trend of bonds and the S&P 500 index reflects acceptable growth, and the U.S. bond market shows that the economy will remain strong. Wilson pointed out that the stock market began to realize a little bit in November, when high-valued stocks have performed extremely badly, and now defensive stocks, especially the utilities sector, are in one of their best periods on record.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/823e940b411a1eb5c8ff6c897065e2fe\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of U.S. bonds, as the Federal Reserve started a rate hike cycle, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has continued to rise in the past month, with the largest monthly fluctuation in history.</p><p>From this point, the internal structure of the stock market once again deviates from the message of the bond market. At the same time, the inside of the stock market is telling a very different story compared to bonds or the S&P 500.</p><p>Equity risk premiums are lower, with the S&P 500 GFC at its lowest level since 2008. As Mike Wilson has pointed out many times in recent weeks, stock market returns are low given the huge risks facing the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6ddb0a1b0dd2ff84ebf296c9934b91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Furthermore, the downside ratio showed a clear pause in market breadth from mid-2021 onwards and faded in the first quarter of 2022, signaling a clear shift in market trends from an early mid-cycle environment to a late backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f393196c06ba9e4855e6c07e28bfe980\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Finally, Wilson pointed out that current index valuations are still vulnerable to slowing growth, and P/E may continue to decline. Dividend increases with the current market valuation, possibly because many companies are currently performing better. But this divergence is unsustainable, and cyclical stocks will be the most affected by then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32aefcbb404ca514042d83db10606e78\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The \"growth panic\" within U.S. stocks and the differentiation between bonds and stock indexes will prove that growth is unsustainable. The accelerated pace of rate hike is another warning sign that there may be an overshoot in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.</p><p>Overall, Wilson believes that it is difficult for the Fed to implement such a large-scale tightening without affecting the economy, and economic growth will be disappointing, and advises investors to stick to defensive stocks.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Extreme polarization! U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and various sectors are all telling opposite \"stories\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExtreme polarization! U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and various sectors are all telling opposite \"stories\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-13 16:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Michael Wilson pointed out that the internal structure of U.S. stocks shows serious growth panic, while the trend of bonds and the S&P 500 index reflects acceptable growth. However, this divergence is unsustainable and economic growth will be disappointing.</b>Recently, the differentiation of the U.S. stock and bond markets has become more and more obvious. U.S. bonds continue to be sold off, but U.S. stocks remain strong. Not only that, there is also a serious differentiation within the U.S. stock market. Growth stocks have suffered a severe impact from rate hike expectations, while defensive stocks have significantly outperformed cyclical stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6c2f1398679b7ae8673a31065e432a7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some analysts have also noticed the intensified divergence between U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the internal structure of U.S. stocks. U.S. stock shorts,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Michael Wilson pointed out in a note on Monday that the bond market and the S&P 500 index are too optimistic about the economic outlook.</p><p>Michael Wilson mentions in his report:</p><p>We have an example of extreme polarization. The internal structure of U.S. stocks shows serious growth concerns and panics, while the trend of bonds and the S&P 500 index reflects acceptable growth, and the U.S. bond market shows that the economy will remain strong. Wilson pointed out that the stock market began to realize a little bit in November, when high-valued stocks have performed extremely badly, and now defensive stocks, especially the utilities sector, are in one of their best periods on record.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/823e940b411a1eb5c8ff6c897065e2fe\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of U.S. bonds, as the Federal Reserve started a rate hike cycle, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has continued to rise in the past month, with the largest monthly fluctuation in history.</p><p>From this point, the internal structure of the stock market once again deviates from the message of the bond market. At the same time, the inside of the stock market is telling a very different story compared to bonds or the S&P 500.</p><p>Equity risk premiums are lower, with the S&P 500 GFC at its lowest level since 2008. As Mike Wilson has pointed out many times in recent weeks, stock market returns are low given the huge risks facing the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6ddb0a1b0dd2ff84ebf296c9934b91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Furthermore, the downside ratio showed a clear pause in market breadth from mid-2021 onwards and faded in the first quarter of 2022, signaling a clear shift in market trends from an early mid-cycle environment to a late backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f393196c06ba9e4855e6c07e28bfe980\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Finally, Wilson pointed out that current index valuations are still vulnerable to slowing growth, and P/E may continue to decline. Dividend increases with the current market valuation, possibly because many companies are currently performing better. But this divergence is unsustainable, and cyclical stocks will be the most affected by then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32aefcbb404ca514042d83db10606e78\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The \"growth panic\" within U.S. stocks and the differentiation between bonds and stock indexes will prove that growth is unsustainable. The accelerated pace of rate hike is another warning sign that there may be an overshoot in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.</p><p>Overall, Wilson believes that it is difficult for the Fed to implement such a large-scale tightening without affecting the economy, and economic growth will be disappointing, and advises investors to stick to defensive stocks.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656805\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656805","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2227169474","content_text":"摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson指出，美股内部结构表现出严重的增长恐慌，而债券和标普500指数走势则反映增长尚可，然而这种背离是不可持续的，经济增长将令人失望。近期，美国股债市场的分化愈加明显，美债持续遭抛售，美股却依然坚挺。不仅如此，美股内部也出现严重分化，成长型股票遭受加息预期的猛烈冲击，同时防御型股票表现显著优于周期股。一些分析师也注意到了美股、美债以及美股内部结构背离加剧，美股空头、摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson在周一的一份报告中指出，债券市场和标准普尔500指数对经济前景过于乐观。Michael Wilson在报告中提到：我们有了一个极端分化的例子，美股内部结构表现出严重的增长担忧恐慌，而债券和标普500指数走势则反映增长尚可，其中美国债市则显示经济将保持强劲。Wilson指出，股市在11月开始意识到了一点，自那时高估值股票表现极其糟糕，现在防守型股票，尤其是公用事业板块，正处于有记录以来表现最好的时期之一。美债方面，随着美联储开启加息周期，近一个月10年期美债收益率持续攀升，月波动幅度为史上最大。从这一点上，股票市场的内部结构再次偏离了债券市场的信息。与此同时，与债券或标普500相比，股票市场的内部正在讲述一个截然不同的故事。股票风险溢价走低，标普500指数GFC处于2008年以来的最低水平。正如Mike Wilson最近几周多次指出的，鉴于市场面临着巨大风险，股市回报较低。此外，从2021年中期开始，下跌比率显示出市场广度的明显停顿，并在2022年第一季度消退，这标志着市场趋势从周期早中期环境到晚期背景的明显变化。最后，Wilson指出，目前的指数估值仍然容易受到增长放缓的影响，市盈率可能继续下降。股息随当前市场估值增加，可能是因为许多企业当前的业绩表现较好。但这种背离是不可持续的，到时候周期股将受影响最严重。美股内部的“增长恐慌”与债券和股指之间的分化，将被证明增长是不可持续的。加息步伐加快是另一个警告信号，表明10年期美债收益率可能存在超调。总的来看，Wilson认为，美联储很难在不影响经济的情况下实施如此大规模的紧缩，经济增长将令人失望，并建议投资者坚持选择防御性股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IEI":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"BND":1,"SHY":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"TLT":0.6,"IEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011430065,"gmtCreate":1648902690361,"gmtModify":1676534419847,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011430065","repostId":"1150398100","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150398100","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648887472,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150398100?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-02 16:17","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Heavy! Four ministries and commissions revised the regulations on overseas listing of enterprises, and five highlights were sorted out!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150398100","media":"上海证券报","summary":"中国证监会坚定支持企业根据自身意愿自主选择上市地。","content":"<p><div>On April 2, according to the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance, the State Secrecy Bureau and the State Archives Bureau, revised the \"Regulations on Strengthening the Confidentiality and Archives Management Related to Overseas Issuance and Listing of Securities\" (China Securities Regulatory Commission Announcement [2009] No.29, hereinafter referred to as the \"Regulations\") and publicly solicited opinions from the public. In response to a reporter's question, the person in charge of the relevant department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that the China Securities Regulatory Commission firmly supports enterprises to independently choose listing places according to their own wishes. The revision of the \"Regulations\" aims to further strengthen the confidentiality and file management related to overseas issuance and listing of domestic enterprises, clarify the information security responsibilities of listed companies,...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JeAmTjpdCNbZNcFHuCoZMQ\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Heavy! Four ministries and commissions revised the regulations on overseas listing of enterprises, and five highlights were sorted out!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHeavy! Four ministries and commissions revised the regulations on overseas listing of enterprises, and five highlights were sorted out!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-02 16:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On April 2, according to the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance, the State Secrecy Bureau and the State Archives Bureau, revised the \"Regulations on Strengthening the Confidentiality and Archives Management Related to Overseas Issuance and Listing of Securities\" (China Securities Regulatory Commission Announcement [2009] No.29, hereinafter referred to as the \"Regulations\") and publicly solicited opinions from the public. In response to a reporter's question, the person in charge of the relevant department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that the China Securities Regulatory Commission firmly supports enterprises to independently choose listing places according to their own wishes. The revision of the \"Regulations\" aims to further strengthen the confidentiality and file management related to overseas issuance and listing of domestic enterprises, clarify the information security responsibilities of listed companies,...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JeAmTjpdCNbZNcFHuCoZMQ\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JeAmTjpdCNbZNcFHuCoZMQ\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47235940cac4ace00aaf85be84ee412","relate_stocks":{"KWEB":"中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares","CQQQ":"中国科技指数ETF-Guggenheim","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JeAmTjpdCNbZNcFHuCoZMQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150398100","content_text":"4月2日，据证监会官方网站消息，证监会会同财政部、国家保密局、国家档案局对《关于加强在境外发行证券与上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定》(证监会公告〔2009〕29号，下称《规定》)进行了修订，并向社会公开征求意见。证监会有关部门负责人在答记者问中表示，中国证监会坚定支持企业根据自身意愿自主选择上市地。《规定》的修订旨在进一步加强境内企业境外发行上市相关保密和档案管理工作，明确上市公司信息安全责任，维护国家信息安全，减少不必要的涉密敏感信息进入工作底稿，提高跨境监管合作的效率，体现了统筹开放与安全的理念，将促进中国境内企业境外发行证券和上市活动有序开展。证监会官网消息表示，将继续支持各类符合条件的企业赴境外上市，不断深化跨境监管合作，规定修订将进一步提升境外上市企业的合规水平，促进境外上市活动健康有序发展。证监会和有关部门将根据公开征求意见情况，进一步修改完善规定，履行法定程序后尽快发布实施。原《规定》共十二条，修订后的《规定》共十三条，删减两条，新增三条。来看修订要点！要点1：保持与上位法衔接本次修订完善了法律依据。具体来看：与《国务院关于境内企业境外发行证券和上市管理的规定(草案征求意见稿)》（下称《国务院管理规定》）相衔接；增加《中华人民共和国会计法》《中华人民共和国注册会计师法》等法律，以及《国务院管理规定》作为上位法。上述证监会有关部门负责人表示，《规定》出台于2009年，在当时情况下对规范境外上市相关保密和档案管理工作发挥了积极作用。十多年来，相关的法规和制度环境明显变化，市场和监管实践不断深化，前述规定日益不适应新的形势。负责人指出，本次修订将为境外上市涉及的相关保密和档案管理工作，提供更加清晰的指引，便利有关市场主体依法依规高效开展境外发行上市活动；将指导企业妥善管理涉密和敏感信息，履行好维护国家信息安全的主体责任；也将有助于相关监管部门与境外监管机构，安全高效开展包括联合检查在内的跨境监管合作活动，共同维护全球投资者权益。要点2：适用范围扩大至境外间接上市企业修订后的《规定》，删除了此前《规定》中关于境外上市公司的定义和境外中资控股上市公司的境内股权持有单位参照执行的规定，并与《国务院管理规定》保持一致，明确适用于企业境外直接和间接上市。具体来看，《规定》将“境内企业”定义为，包括在境外直接发行上市的境内股份有限公司和境外间接发行上市主体的境内运营实体。要点3：明确企业保密责任为使企业切实担负信息安全的主体责任，修订后的《规定》要求，境内企业境外发行上市过程中向证券公司、会计师事务所等证券服务机构以及境外监管机构提供、披露，或者通过其境外上市主体等提供、披露文件资料时，须遵守保密相关法律法规。《规定》还要求境内企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构提供文件、资料时，就提供的涉密敏感信息具体情况提供书面说明。证券公司、证券服务机构应当妥善保存上述书面说明以备查。相关负责人表示，依法依规做好涉密敏感信息的管理，落实信息安全主体责任，是企业合规经营的重要内容。从实践情况看，企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构提供包含涉密或敏感信息的文件、资料应属极少数情况。“如因审计工作需要确有必要提供的，《规定》重申企业须按照相关法律法规履行必要的审批或备案程序，并要求企业保留履行程序和提供信息的相关记录并向中介机构提供书面说明，不会给企业带来过高的合规成本。《规定》的落实，将提升企业维护信息安全和防范法律风险的能力，促进企业依法合规开展境外发行上市活动。”上述负责人说。要点4：明确会计档案管理要求《规定》明确了会计档案管理要求。具体来看，境内企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构、境外监管机构等单位和个人提供对国家和社会具有重要保存价值的会计档案或会计档案复制件的，应当按照国家有关规定履行相应程序。要点5：修改现场检查规定 为跨境监管合作提供制度保障结合跨境审计监管合作的国际惯例，此次修订删除了原规定中“现场检查应以我国监管机构为主进行，或者依赖我国监管机构的检查结果”的表述。结合证券法规定，《规定》明确，境外证券监督管理机构及有关主管部门提出就境内企业境外发行证券和上市相关活动，对境内企业以及为该等企业提供相关证券服务的证券公司、证券服务机构进行调查取证或开展检查的，应当通过跨境监管合作机制进行，证监会或有关主管部门依据双多边合作机制，提供必要协助，为安全高效开展包括联合检查在内的跨境监管合作提供制度保障。证监会有关部门负责人表示，这体现了中国监管部门对跨境审计监管合作一贯的开放态度，也符合相关国际惯行做法，将为安全、高效开展包括联合检查在内的跨境监管合作提供制度保障。《关于加强境内企业境外发行证券和上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定（征求意见稿）》修订说明为进一步加强境内企业境外发行上市相关的保密和档案管理工作，明确上市公司信息安全责任，维护国家信息安全，深化跨境监管合作，证监会会同财政部、国家保密局、国家档案局对《关于加强在境外发行证券与上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定》（证监会公告〔2009〕29 号，以下简称《规定》）进行了修订。现就有关情况说明如下：一、修订背景《规定》发布于2009 年，是一部规范境内企业境外发行上市有关保密和档案管理事宜的规范性文件，对境内企业向证券公司、会计师事务所等证券服务机构以及境外监管机构提供涉密或敏感信息应当履行的程序作出了规定。《规定》的适用范围为“发行境外上市外资股的境内公司”，并规定境外中资控股上市公司的境内股权持有单位参照执行。十多年来，《规定》在规范境内企业境外发行上市过程中的信息安全管理、特别是对外提供审计工作底稿的程序管理方面发挥了一定的积极作用。随着形势变化，《规定》日益面临一些不适应的情况：一是覆盖面不全。近年来不少境内企业以间接方式赴香港、美国等境外市场上市，而《规定》并不适用于此类公司，存在一定的规范盲区。二是不适应上位法的变化。《国务院关于境内企业境外发行证券和上市的管理规定（草案征求意见稿）》（以下简称《国务院管理规定》）拟对境内企业直接和间接境外上市活动统一实施备案管理。《规定》须相应作出调整。三是不适应跨境监管合作的要求。近年来国际资本市场跨境监管合作的实践不断深化，有必要对相关制度安排予以完善，为下一步安全高效开展合作提供制度保障。二、修订主要内容原《规定》共十二条，修订后共十三条，删减两条，新增三条，主要修订内容如下：（一）保持与上位法的衔接。将《国务院管理规定》加入《规定》第一条，作为其上位法规之一，并将原《规定》标题和正文中出现的“在境外发行证券与上市”的表述，参考《国务院管理规定》的表述，统一修改为“境内企业境外发行证券和上市”。增加《会计法》《注册会计师法》等法律以及《国务院管理规定》为上位依据（第一条）。（二）将适用范围扩大至境外间接上市企业。删除此前《规定》中关于境外上市公司的定义和境外中资控股上市公司的境内股权持有单位参照执行的规定，与《国务院管理规定》保持一致，将“境内企业”定义为包括在境外直接发行上市的境内股份有限公司和境外间接发行上市主体的境内运营实体（第二条）。（三）增加程序性要求，明确企业保密责任。为使企业切实担负信息安全的主体责任，修订后的《规定》将要求境内企业境外发行上市过程中向证券公司、会计师事务所等证券服务机构以及境外监管机构提供、披露，或者通过其境外上市主体等提供、披露文件资料时，遵守保密相关法律法规。要求境内企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构提供文件、资料时，就提供的涉密敏感信息具体情况提供书面说明。证券公司、证券服务机构应当妥善保存上述书面说明以备查（第三、四、五条）。（四）明确会计档案管理要求。明确境内企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构、境外监管机构等单位和个人提供对国家和社会具有重要保存价值的会计档案或会计档案复制件的，应当按照国家有关规定履行相应程序（第八条）。（五）修改有关境外检查的规定。结合跨境审计监管合作的国际惯例，删除《规定》中关于“现场检查应以我国监管机构为主进行，或者依赖我国监管机构的检查结果”的表述。结合《证券法》第一百七十七条的规定，明确境外证券监督管理机构及有关主管部门提出就境内企业境外发行证券和上市相关活动对境内企业以及为该等企业提供相关证券服务的证券公司、证券服务机构进行调查取证或开展检查的，应当通过跨境监管合作机制进行，证监会或有关主管部门依据双多边合作机制提供必要的协助，为安全高效开展包括联合检查在内的跨境监管合作提供制度保障（第十一条）。关于加强境内企业境外发行证券和上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定（征求意见稿）一、为保障国家经济安全，保护社会公共利益，规范境内企业境外发行证券和上市相关保密和档案管理工作，支持企业依法合规开展境外发行证券和上市活动，根据《中华人民共和国证券法》《中华人民共和国保守国家秘密法》《中华人民共和国档案法》《中华人民共和国会计法》《中华人民共和国注册会计师法》《中华人民共和国国家安全法》和《国务院关于境内企业境外发行证券和上市的管理规定》等法律法规的有关规定，制定本规定。二、境内企业境外发行证券和上市活动中，境内企业以及提供相关证券服务的证券公司、证券服务机构应当严格遵守中华人民共和国相关法律法规以及本规定的要求，增强保守国家秘密和加强档案管理的法律意识，建立健全保密和档案工作制度，采取必要措施落实保密和档案管理责任，不得泄露国家秘密，不得损害国家和公共利益。前款所称境内企业包括境外直接发行上市的境内股份有限公司和境外间接发行上市主体的境内运营实体；所称证券公司、证券服务机构包括境内外证券公司、证券服务机构以及其在境内的成员机构、代表机构、联营机构、合作机构等关联机构。三、境内企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构、境外监管机构等单位和个人提供、公开披露，或者通过其境外上市主体等提供、公开披露涉及国家秘密、机关单位工作秘密的文件、资料的，应当依法报有审批权限的主管部门批准，并报同级保密行政管理部门备案。是否属于国家秘密不明确或者有争议的，应当报有关保密行政管理部门确定；是否属于机关单位工作秘密不明确或者有争议的，应当报有关业务主管部门确定。四、境内企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构、境外监管机构等单位和个人提供、公开披露，或者通过其境外上市主体等提供、公开披露其他泄露后会对国家安全或者公共利益造成不利影响的文件、资料的，应当按照国家有关规定，严格履行相应程序。五、境内企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构提供文件、资料时，应按照国家相关保密规定处理相关文件、资料，并就执行本规定第三条、第四条的情况提供书面说明。证券公司、证券服务机构应当妥善保存上述书面说明以备查。境外会计师事务所从事境内企业境外发行证券和上市相关审计业务的，应当按照国家有关规定履行相应程序。境内企业不得向未履行相应程序的境外会计师事务所提供会计档案。六、境内企业经履行相应程序后，向有关证券公司、证券服务机构等提供涉及国家秘密、机关单位工作秘密或者其他泄露后会对国家安全或者公共利益造成不利影响的文件、资料的，双方应当依照《中华人民共和国保守国家秘密法》等法律法规及本规定，签订保密协议，明确有关证券公司、证券服务机构等承担的保密义务和责任。证券公司、证券服务机构应当遵守我国保密及档案管理的要求，妥善保管获取的上述文件、资料。七、境内企业、有关证券公司、证券服务机构发现国家秘密已经泄露或者可能泄露的，应当立即采取补救措施并及时向有关机关、单位报告。机关、单位接到报告后，应当立即作出处理，并及时向保密行政管理部门报告。八、境内企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构、境外监管机构等单位和个人提供对国家和社会具有重要保存价值的会计档案或会计档案复制件的，应当按照国家有关规定履行相应程序。九、为境内企业境外发行证券和上市提供相关证券服务的证券公司、证券服务机构在境内形成的工作底稿等档案应当存放在境内。未经有关主管部门批准，不得通过携带、寄运等任何方式将其转移至境外或者通过信息技术等任何手段传递给境外机构或者个人。涉及对国家和社会具有重要保存价值的档案或档案复制件需要出境的，按照国家有关规定办理审批手续。十、证监会、财政部、国家保密局和国家档案局等有关主管部门建立协作机制，在各自的职权范围内依法对境内企业境外发行证券和上市活动中涉及保密和档案管理的有关事项进行规范和监督检查。十一、境外证券监督管理机构及有关主管部门提出就境内企业境外发行证券和上市相关活动对境内企业以及为该等企业境外发行证券和上市提供证券服务的证券公司、证券服务机构进行调查取证或开展检查的，应当通过跨境监管合作机制进行，证监会或有关主管部门依据双多边合作机制提供必要的协助。境内有关企业、证券公司和证券服务机构，在配合境外证券监督管理机构或境外有关主管部门调查、检查或提供文件资料前，应当事先向证监会或有关主管部门报告。十二、境内企业境外发行证券和上市活动中，任何单位和个人违反《中华人民共和国保守国家秘密法》和《中华人民共和国档案法》等法律法规的，由有关部门依法追究法律责任；涉嫌犯罪的，移送司法机关依法追究刑事责任。十三、本规定自公布之日起施行。《关于加强在境外发行证券与上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定》（证监会公告〔2009〕29 号）同时废止。证监会答记者问2022年4月2日，证监会公布《关于加强境内企业境外发行证券和上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定(征求意见稿)》(以下简称《规定》)，向社会公开征求意见。针对各界关注的问题，记者采访了证监会有关部门负责人。1.问:现阶段修订《关于加强在境外发行证券与上市相关保密和档案管理工作的规定》(证监会公告〔2009〕29号)的主要考虑是什么?答:上述规定出台于2009年，在当时情况下对规范境外上市相关保密和档案管理工作发挥了积极作用。十多年来，相关的法规和制度环境明显变化，市场和监管实践不断深化，前述规定日益不适应新的形势。本次修订，将为境外上市涉及的相关保密和档案管理工作提供更加清晰的指引，便利有关市场主体依法依规高效开展境外发行上市活动;将指导企业妥善管理涉密和敏感信息，履行好维护国家信息安全的主体责任;也将有助于相关监管部门与境外监管机构安全高效开展包括联合检查在内的跨境监管合作活动，共同维护全球投资者权益。2.问:《规定》的发布对促进境外上市活动有何积极意义?答:中国证监会坚定支持企业根据自身意愿自主选择上市地。《规定》的修订旨在进一步加强境内企业境外发行上市相关保密和档案管理工作，明确上市公司信息安全责任，维护国家信息安全，减少不必要的涉密敏感信息进入工作底稿，提高跨境监管合作的效率，体现了统筹开放与安全的理念，将促进中国境内企业境外发行证券和上市活动有序开展。3.问:《规定》对跨境监管合作，特别是审计监管合作有何积极作用?答:《规定》根据《证券法》第一百七十七条的规定，明确境外监管机构在中国境内进行调查取证或开展检查的应当通过跨境监管合作机制进行，证监会和有关主管部门依据双多边合作机制提供必要的协助。同时，结合跨境审计监管合作的国际惯例，删除了原《规定》关于“现场检查应以我国监管机构为主进行，或者依赖我国监管机构的检查结果”的表述。这体现了中国监管部门对跨境审计监管合作一贯的开放态度，也符合相关国际惯行做法，将为安全、高效开展包括联合检查在内的跨境监管合作提供制度保障。4.问:《规定》要求企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构提供关于执行《规定》第三条、第四条情况的书面说明，是否将提高企业的合规成本?答:依法依规做好涉密敏感信息的管理，落实信息安全主体责任，是企业合规经营的重要内容。从实践情况看，企业向有关证券公司、证券服务机构提供包含涉密或敏感信息的文件、资料应属极少数情况。如因审计工作需要确有必要提供的，《规定》重申企业须按照相关法律法规履行必要的审批或备案程序，并要求企业保留履行程序和提供信息的相关记录并向中介机构提供书面说明，不会给企业带来过高的合规成本。《规定》的落实，将提升企业维护信息安全和防范法律风险的能力，促进企业依法合规开展境外发行上市活动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CQQQ":0.9,"KWEB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961309612,"gmtCreate":1668827370636,"gmtModify":1676538119199,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986884232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027690129,"gmtCreate":1654032753561,"gmtModify":1676535379517,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027690129","repostId":"1157968743","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157968743","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654012767,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157968743?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-31 23:59","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks rebounded! The Nasdaq rose, after falling more than 1.5% before","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157968743","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月31日，美股盘中反弹，纳指翻涨，此前一度跌超1.5%；道指跌幅收窄至约0.3%，标普500指数现跌约0.2%。明星科技股普遍上涨，阿里巴巴涨4.6%、亚马逊涨3.17%、台积电涨2.4%，奈飞、谷","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 31, U.S. stocks rebounded intraday, and the Nasdaq rose, having previously fallen by more than 1.5%; The Dow's decline narrowed to about 0.3%, and the S&P 500 is now down about 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e08c4fb0e3f30dbec9d35b9ae80c167\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Star technology stocks generally rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 4.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 1%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks strengthened again, with Manbang rising 15%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>The increase is more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>, Huanju rose 6%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks rebounded! The Nasdaq rose, after falling more than 1.5% before</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks rebounded! The Nasdaq rose, after falling more than 1.5% before\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-31 23:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 31, U.S. stocks rebounded intraday, and the Nasdaq rose, having previously fallen by more than 1.5%; The Dow's decline narrowed to about 0.3%, and the S&P 500 is now down about 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e08c4fb0e3f30dbec9d35b9ae80c167\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Star technology stocks generally rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 4.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 1%.</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks strengthened again, with Manbang rising 15%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>The increase is more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>, Huanju rose 6%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","03086":"华夏纳指",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157968743","content_text":"5月31日，美股盘中反弹，纳指翻涨，此前一度跌超1.5%；道指跌幅收窄至约0.3%，标普500指数现跌约0.2%。明星科技股普遍上涨，阿里巴巴涨4.6%、亚马逊涨3.17%、台积电涨2.4%，奈飞、谷歌、特斯拉涨超1%。热门中概股再度走强，满帮涨15%，新东方、BOSS直聘、哔哩哔哩、贝壳涨幅在10%以上，拼多多涨7%，京东、欢聚涨6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"03086":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022823409,"gmtCreate":1653519733101,"gmtModify":1676535294764,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022823409","repostId":"2238753157","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029338614,"gmtCreate":1652739847739,"gmtModify":1676535149297,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029338614","repostId":"2235040092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082561396,"gmtCreate":1650586077736,"gmtModify":1676534757448,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082561396","repostId":"1148226725","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148226725","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650582652,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148226725?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-22 07:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The U.S. SEC added 17 Chinese concept stocks including Li Auto to the \"pre-delisting list\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148226725","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"当地时间4月21日，美国证劵交易委员会再将$理想汽车$、$百世集团$和$贝壳$等公司加入“预摘牌”名单，这是自3月以来第五批被纳入名单的中概股公司。SEC声称，上述17家公司提交申辩的截止时间为当地时间5月12日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 21, local time, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">Best Group</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Waiting for companies to join the \"pre-delisting\" list, this is the fifth batch of Chinese concept stock companies included in the list since March. The specific list is:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">Novartis</a>Furniture, LOVARRA, Wanchun Pharmaceutical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">Luckin Coffee</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JG\">Aurora</a>Mobile, Scientific Energy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00506\">Chinese food</a>, Value Exchange International, Zelsisi Medical Group, Entrepreneur Universe Bright Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBAT\">Sino-Belgian Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNET\">China grid carrier line</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a>, Best Group, Li Auto and Shell. The SEC claims that the deadline for the above-mentioned 17 companies to submit their defenses is May 12, local time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab051d955fcdcc4c140baa0aed9feac\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The U.S. SEC added 17 Chinese concept stocks including Li Auto to the \"pre-delisting list\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe U.S. SEC added 17 Chinese concept stocks including Li Auto to the \"pre-delisting list\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-04-22 07:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 21, local time, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">Best Group</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Waiting for companies to join the \"pre-delisting\" list, this is the fifth batch of Chinese concept stock companies included in the list since March. The specific list is:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">Novartis</a>Furniture, LOVARRA, Wanchun Pharmaceutical,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">Luckin Coffee</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JG\">Aurora</a>Mobile, Scientific Energy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00506\">Chinese food</a>, Value Exchange International, Zelsisi Medical Group, Entrepreneur Universe Bright Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBAT\">Sino-Belgian Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNET\">China grid carrier line</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMTD\">AMTD International</a>, Best Group, Li Auto and Shell. The SEC claims that the deadline for the above-mentioned 17 companies to submit their defenses is May 12, local time.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab051d955fcdcc4c140baa0aed9feac\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f37245cdd9f577000f7193c7907d3f","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1119":"汽车制造商","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","JG":"极光","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1575":"同股不同权","ZH":"知乎","LI":"理想汽车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BEKE":"贝壳","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1587":"次新股","BK4563":"昨日强势股","NVS":"诺华","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1539":"汽车股","BEST":"百世集团","LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148226725","content_text":"当地时间4月21日，美国证劵交易委员会（SEC）再将理想汽车、百世集团和贝壳等公司加入“预摘牌”名单，这是自3月以来第五批被纳入名单的中概股公司。具体名单为：知乎、诺华家具、LOVARRA、万春医药、瑞幸咖啡、极光移动、Scientific Energy、中国食品、Value Exchange International、泽尔西西医疗集团、Entrepreneur Universe Bright Group、中比能源、中网载线、尚乘国际、百世集团、理想汽车和贝壳。SEC声称，上述17家公司提交申辩的截止时间为当地时间5月12日。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9,"ZH":0.9,"BEST":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"LI":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.9,"NVS":0.9,"02015":0.9,"JG":0.9,"LKNCY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919605609,"gmtCreate":1663797148401,"gmtModify":1676537335735,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919605609","repostId":"1138343056","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138343056","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663767030,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138343056?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-21 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, while Chinese concept stocks generally fell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138343056","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月21日，美股三大指数集体高开，纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨48.17点，涨幅0.42%，报11473.22点；道琼斯指数开盘上涨143.61点，涨幅0.47%，报30849.84点；标普500指数开盘","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 21, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 48.17 points, or 0.42%, to 11,473.22 points; The Dow Jones index opened up 143.61 points, or 0.47%, to 30849.84 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 17.66 points, or 0.46%, to 3873.59 points.</p><p>Some open low of popular Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Fell nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fell more than 1%.</p><p>Oil stocks are higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>Rose more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up 1.6%, Putin signed some mobilization orders to push up international oil prices.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>It bucked the market and fell more than 6%. The SEC accused its CEO and former president of insider trading.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Up more than 8% to $78.74, the stock closed down more than 21% yesterday.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening | The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, while Chinese concept stocks generally fell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, while Chinese concept stocks generally fell\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-21 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 21, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher. The Nasdaq Composite Index opened up 48.17 points, or 0.42%, to 11,473.22 points; The Dow Jones index opened up 143.61 points, or 0.47%, to 30849.84 points; The S&P 500 index opened up 17.66 points, or 0.46%, to 3873.59 points.</p><p>Some open low of popular Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Fell nearly 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fell more than 1%.</p><p>Oil stocks are higher,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>Rose more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>Up 1.6%, Putin signed some mobilization orders to push up international oil prices.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">Cheetah Mobile</a>It bucked the market and fell more than 6%. The SEC accused its CEO and former president of insider trading.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Up more than 8% to $78.74, the stock closed down more than 21% yesterday.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138343056","content_text":"9月21日，美股三大指数集体高开，纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨48.17点，涨幅0.42%，报11473.22点；道琼斯指数开盘上涨143.61点，涨幅0.47%，报30849.84点；标普500指数开盘上涨17.66点，涨幅0.46%，报3873.59点。热门中概股部分低开，理想汽车跌近4%，网易跌近3%，阿里巴巴跌超1%。石油股走高，马拉松石油涨逾2%，西方石油涨1.6%，普京签署部分动员令推高国际油价。猎豹移动逆市跌逾6%，SEC指控其CEO及前总裁内幕交易。尚乘数科涨超8%，报78.74美元，该股昨日收跌逾21%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937220820,"gmtCreate":1663459830660,"gmtModify":1676537271908,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937220820","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932860393,"gmtCreate":1662931696912,"gmtModify":1676537162617,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932860393","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936851164,"gmtCreate":1662759816658,"gmtModify":1676537132721,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936851164","repostId":"1159026938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159026938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662693287,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159026938?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 11:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Howard Marks' latest memo: The illusion of cognition","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159026938","media":"橡树资本Oaktree Capital","summary":"世界上有两类预言家：一类对未来并无所知，而另一类不知道自己并无所知。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>I started writing my first memo in February 1993, \"The Value of Prediction, Where does the Rain Come from?\" The Value of Projections, or Where'd All This Rain Come From In the beginning, I've been saying that I'm ignoring \"predictions\".</p><p>In the years since then, I have explained in detail why I am not interested in forecasting-some of my favorite quotes in the following chapters echo my disdain for forecasting-but I have never written a memo dedicated to why it is so difficult to make good macro forecasts. Hence this memo.</p><p><b>Introduce thoughtful things</b></p><p>There are two kinds of prophets in the world: one who knows nothing about the future, and the other who doesn't know that they know nothing. -John Kenneth Galbraith Shortly after the final polishing memo I Beg to Differ, I attended a luncheon with some experienced investors and people outside the investment circle. This is not a social event, but an opportunity for those present to exchange views on the investment environment.</p><p>During the period, the host asked a series of questions: How do you expect inflation to develop? Will there be a recession, and if so, how severe is it? How will the Russia-Ukraine conflict end? What are the likely effects of the 2022 and 2024 U.S. elections? I've heard a variety of opinions about this.</p><p>Readers who have long followed my memo should be able to imagine what I was thinking at the time: \"No one in this room is an expert in foreign affairs or politics. No one present has particularly in-depth insights into these topics, and certainly no more than the average person reading this morning's news.\" The ideas conveyed, even on economic issues, seem no more convincing than others, and I am absolutely convinced that no one can improve investment outcomes. And that's the key.</p><p>It was that luncheon that got me thinking about writing another memo about the unhelpful macro outlook. Soon after, I found some additional material-a book, an article from<i>Bloomberg View Bloomberg Opinion</i>And a newspaper article-these materials all support my argument (and possibly my \"confirmation bias\"-that is, people tend to accept and believe information and arguments that can prove their previous opinions). That luncheon and these materials together inspired the theme of this memo:<b>There are many reasons why prediction is rarely beneficial.</b></p><p>To get something useful-whether in manufacturing, academia, or even the arts-there must be a reliable<b>Process</b>, able to combine the required<b>Input</b>Convert to desired<b>Output</b>。 The problem, in short, is that I don't think there is a process that consistently converts a large number of variables (inputs) related to the economy and financial markets into useful macro forecasts (outputs).</p><p><b>Models</b></p><p>The greatest enemy of cognition is not ignorance, but the illusion of cognition. -Daniel Burstin About my first ten years at First National City Bank, there was a word that was so popular at the time that I haven't heard for a long time now: econometrics. Specifically, it refers to the practice of finding correlations in economic data to produce effective forecasts. Or, in short, econometrics studies how to build mathematical models of the economy. In the 1970s, econometrics were hot, but I don't think they are glorious now. I think that means their model isn't working.</p><p><b>Whether the model is sophisticated or scribbled simple, mathematically based or intuitive, forecasters have no choice but to make judgments based on the model.</b>Models are by definition composed of assumptions: \"If A happens, then B happens.\" In other words, models state relationships and responses. But if we are willing to adopt the output of the model, we must believe that the model is reliable. But when I think about modeling the economy, my first reaction is how complicated it will be.</p><p>The United States, for example, has a population of approximately 330 million. Except for the particularly young and some particularly elderly, the rest of the people are economic participants. So there are hundreds of millions of consumers, as well as millions of workers, producers, and middlemen (many satisfying multiple classifications). To predict the development path of the economy, we must predict the behavior of these people-if not each participant, at least the total group.</p><p>Realistic simulations of the U.S. economy must deal with billions of interactions or nodes, including with suppliers, customers, and other market participants across the globe. Is it possible to do this? For example, is it possible to predict the behavior of consumers in the following situations: (i) if they get an extra dollar of income (what is the \"marginal propensity to consume\"?); (ii) if energy prices rise, squeezing other categories in the household budget; (iii) If the price of one commodity rises relative to other commodities (will there be a \"substitution effect\"?); And (iv) what if the geopolitical arena is stirred up by events on other continents?</p><p>Obviously, this level of complexity requires frequent use of simplified assumptions. For example, modeling would be easier if it could be assumed that consumers would not buy B instead of A in situations where B is not better or cheaper (or both). It also helps if it is assumed that the cost of producing X is no less than Y, then the producer will not price X less than Y.</p><p>But despite B's higher price (or even because of it), consumers are still attracted to B's brand effect. What will happen? What if X was produced and developed by entrepreneurs willing to spend a few years losing money to gain market share? Is it possible for models to predict the decisions of consumers who are willing to spend more and entrepreneurs who are willing to make less money (or even lose)?</p><p>Furthermore, the model must predict the behavior of each group of actors in the economy in various environments. But the unpredictable factors are multifaceted. For example, a consumer may behave in one way at one moment and in a different way at another similar moment. Given the large number of variables involved, it seems unlikely that two \"similar\" moments will occur in exactly the same way, and it is unlikely that we will see economic actors exhibiting the same behavior.</p><p>In addition to this, participants'behavior will be influenced by their psychology (or should I say their emotions?), and their psychology may be influenced by qualitative, non-economic developments. How are these modeled?</p><p>How can an economic model be comprehensive enough to deal with situations that have never been encountered before, or that have not occurred in modern times (i.e. under comparable circumstances)? This is another example of how models can't simply replicate something as complex as an economy.</p><p>Of course, one of the prime examples is COVID-19 pandemic. It shut down most of the world's economies, upended consumer behavior, and inspired large-scale government bailouts. Which aspect of the existing model can predict the impact of the epidemic? Yes, the world had experienced a pandemic in 1918, but it was so different (there were no iPhones, Zoom calls, etc) that the economic state of affairs of that period was hardly any comparable to 2020.</p><p>In addition to factors such as complexity and difficulty in capturing psychological fluctuations and dynamic processes, it is also necessary to consider the inherent limitations of trying to predict things that cannot be expected to remain the same. Not long after I began writing this memo, I received Morgan Housel's usual wonderful weekly magazine. One of the articles describes a lot of observations in other areas related to our economy and investment.</p><p>The following two are borrowed from the field of statistics, and I think they are relevant to the discussion of economic models and forecasts (\"Little ways the world works (Little Ways the World Works) \", Morgan Housel,<i>Collaborative Fund</i>, 20 July 2022):</p><p>Stationarity: This is an assumption that history can be used as a guide for future statistics based on the fact that the main factors affecting the system do not change over time. If you want to know how high a levee to build, look at flood data for the past 100 years and assume it will be the same for the next 100 years. Stationarity is a wonderful, science-based concept, and it is valid until it fails. It is the main driver of important events in economy and politics. [But in our world,] \"things that have never happened before are happening all the time,\" said Stanford professor Scott Sagan. Cromwell's Law: Never say something won't happen.... Even if there is only a one in a billion chance that something will come true, and you will interact with billions of things in your lifetime, so you will almost certainly experience some shocking unexpected events and should always be open to the possibility of the unthinkable becoming a reality. Stationarity may be a reasonable assumption in the field of physical sciences. For example, due to the law of universal gravity, under given atmospheric conditions, objects can always descend at the same acceleration. It always turned out to be that way and always will be that way. But few processes in our field are smooth, especially given psychological, emotional, and human behavior, and they change over time.</p><p>Take, for example, the relationship between unemployment and inflation. For the past 60 years or so, economists have relied on the Phillips curve, which believes that wage inflation will rise as unemployment rates fall, because when there are fewer unemployed workers, employees gain bargaining power and can successfully negotiate higher wages. For decades, the unemployment rate of 5.5% was also considered to indicate \"full employment\".</p><p>But unemployment fell below 5.5% in March 2015 (and reached a 50-year low of 3.5% in September 2019), but inflation (wages or otherwise) did not rise significantly until 2021. The important relationship described by the Phillips curve has been applied to various economic models built over the decades, but it doesn't seem to be applicable for most of the past decade.</p><p>Cromwell's law is equally important. Unlike physical science, there are few things that absolutely must or must not happen in the market and economic fields. Therefore, in<i>\"Cycle\"</i>（<i>Mastering the Market Cycle</i>I list seven terms that investors should remove from their glossary: \"never\", \"always\", \"never\", \"can't\", \"won't\", \"will\" and \"must\". But if these words really must be discarded, then the idea of building models that reliably predict the macro future must also be discarded. In other words, almost nothing is immutable in our field.</p><p>The unpredictability of behavior is my favorite topic. The famous physicist Richard Feynman once said, \"Imagine how difficult physics would be if electrons had a sense.\" The rules of physics are reliable precisely because electrons always do what they are supposed to do. They will never forget to fulfill their responsibilities. They never resist. They never strike. They never innovate. They never act in the opposite way.</p><p><b>But none of these apply to participants in the economy, and it is precisely because they do not apply that the behavior of participants is unpredictable. If the behavior of participants is unpredictable, how can we model the operation of the economy?</b></p><p><b>We are talking about the future, and there is no way to predict the future without making assumptions.</b>Small errors in assumptions about the economic environment and subtle changes in the behavior of participants can cause serious problems. As mathematics and meteorologist Edward Lorenz famously wrote: \"A Brazilian butterfly flapping its wings could cause a tornado in Texas.\" (Historian Niall Ferguson mentions this in an article discussed below.)</p><p>In summary, can we consider the economic model to be reliable? Can the model replicate reality? Can it describe the behavior of millions of participants and their interactions? Is the process trying to model reliable? Can these processes be simplified to mathematics? Can mathematics capture the qualitative nuances of people and their behaviors? Can models predict changes in consumer preferences, changes in firm behavior, and participant responses to innovation? In other words, can we trust the output of the model?</p><p>Obviously, economic relations are not set in stone, and economies are not governed by schematics (schematics that models try to simulate). So the bottom line for me is that, without violating the assumptions, the output of the model points in the right direction most of the time. But it can't always be accurate, especially at critical moments such as inflection points … and that's when accurate predictions are most valuable.</p><p><b>Input</b></p><p>One fact that cannot be ignored is that all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future. -Ian H. Wilson (former GE executive) After considering the incredible complexity of the economy and the need to make simplified assumptions (which will reduce the accuracy of any economic model), let's now consider the input required by a model-the raw materials that make forecasts. Is the estimated input valid? Can we understand them deeply enough to draw meaningful predictions?<b>Or do we simply remind us of the ultimate truth about models: \"Input rubbish, output rubbish\"?</b>Obviously, the quality of no prediction will be better than the quality of the input on which it is based.</p><p>Here's what Neil Ferguson said on July 17 at<i>Bloomberg View Bloomberg Opinion</i>Content written:</p><p>Consider what we really wanted to ask when we asked the question \"Has inflation peaked?\" We're not just asking about the supply and demand of 94,000 different goods, manufactured goods, and services. We are still concerned about the future interest rate path set by the Federal Reserve. Aside from the much-touted \"forward guidance\", it is still far from clear where it will go. What we are asking is how long the dollar strength will continue, as it is currently driving down the prices of American imports. But there are more questions to be answered. At the same time, the above questions are also indirectly asking how long the Russia-Ukraine conflict will last, because the chaos caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly exacerbated the inflation of energy and food prices since February. We are asking if oil producers like Saudi Arabia will respond to requests from Western governments to increase crude oil production...... we should probably also ask ourselves what impact the latest Novel Coronavirus Omicron BA.5 will have on Western labor markets. UK data show that BA.5 is 35% more contagious than its predecessor BA.2, which in turn is more than 20% more contagious than the original Omicron. If you want to add all these variables to your model, then I wish you good luck. In fact, the future path of inflation, like the future direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the spread path of COVID-19 pandemic, is uncertain. I found Ferguson's article so relevant to the subject of this memo that I am attaching a link to it here. The article makes a lot of important points, although I beg to differ on one aspect. Ferguson mentioned above, \"In fact, the future path of inflation, like the future direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the spread path of COVID-19 pandemic, is as uncertain.\"</p><p>I think accurately predicting inflation is \"less likely\" (if it can be predicted) than predicting the other two problems, because accurately predicting inflation requires correct predictions of these two events and a thousand other influencing factors. How can anyone get all these things right?</p><p>Let me briefly introduce the forecasting process mentioned in \"The Value of Forecasting\":</p><p>I guess, for most fund managers, the process looks like this: \"I predict that the economy will do A. If A happens, interest rates should show B. If interest rates are B, the stock market should show C. In this environment, the best performing sector should be D, and stock E should rise the most.\" Then build the portfolio accordingly to achieve the best performance in this situation. But anyway, how likely is E? Keep in mind that E is conditional on A, B, C, and D. In the field of forecasting, a two-thirds correct rate will be an extraordinary achievement. But if there is a 67% chance that each of the five predictions is correct, the result is that there is a 13% chance that all five predictions are correct and the stock will perform as expected.<b>Predicting event E based on assumptions about A, B, C, and D is what I call single-scenario forecasting.</b>In other words, if the hypothetical results about A, B, C, or D prove to be false, then the predicted results of E are unlikely to be realized. Only if all potential predictions are correct can E get the same result as predicted, but this is extremely rare. No one can make a wise investment without considering (i) other possible outcomes for each element, (ii) the likelihood of other scenarios emerging, (iii) what are the prerequisites for making one of these hypotheses a reality, and (iv) what are the implications for E.</p><p>Ferguson's article raises an interesting question about economic modeling: What assumptions should we make about what macro environment economic participants are in? This<b>This question just shows an infinite loop: in order to predict the overall performance of the economy, we need to make assumptions about consumer behavior and other aspects. But to predict consumer behavior, don't we need to make assumptions about the overall economic environment?</b></p><p>In my first memo on the pandemic, Nobody Knows II (March 2020), I mentioned that when discussing the coronavirus, Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch had said: (i) facts; (2) Founded inferences drawn by analogy with other viruses, and (3) opinions or speculations. This is our standard practice when dealing with uncertain events. In economic or market forecasting, we have plenty of history and many similar past events to extrapolate (but none of COVID-19 pandemic). But even if these things are used as input by a well-constructed predictive model, they are still unlikely to predict the future. They can be useful fodder, or they can be junk.</p><p>To illustrate this, people often ask me which cycle I have experienced in the past is most similar to the current one. My answer is that current developments have transient similarities to some past cycles, but no absolute similarities.<b>In each case, the differences are enormous and outweigh the similarities.</b></p><p><b>Even if we can find an identical previous period, to what extent should we rely on this single sample? I guess the answer is not much. Investors rely on historical references (and the forecasts they make based on them) because they fear that without them, they will play blind. But this does not mean that these materials are reliable.</b></p><p><b>Unpredictable effects</b></p><p>Prediction creates the mirage that the future is knowable. -Peter Bernstein<b>We cannot consider the plausibility of predictions without first determining whether our world is orderly or random.</b>In short, is it completely predictable, completely unpredictable, or somewhere in between? For me, the conclusion is somewhere in between, but more inclined to be unpredictable, so much so that most predictions don't help. Since our world is predictable at some times and unpredictable at others, what good are predictions if we can't tell the difference between when it is predictable and when it is unpredictable?</p><p>I learned a new word from reading Ferguson's article: \"deterministic\". The Oxford Dictionary defines it as \"causally determined by previous events or natural laws\". The world is so much simpler when we handle things by rules … like Feynman's electron. But it is clear that economies and markets are not governed by the laws of nature-thanks to human participation-and that previous events may be \"foreshadowing\" or \"tending to repeat\", but events rarely happen twice in the same way. So I think the processes that make up the functioning of economies and markets are not deterministic, meaning they are unpredictable.</p><p>Furthermore, the input is obviously unreliable. A lot of it is random, such as weather, earthquakes, accidents and deaths. Others deal with political and geopolitical issues-some we know, some haven't surfaced yet.</p><p>In his Bloomberg Opinion article, Ferguson mentioned the British writer G.K. Chesterton G.K. Chesterton. This reminds me of the Chesterton quote I quoted in Risk Revisited Again (June 2015):</p><p>The real problem with our world today is not that the world is irrational, nor is it a rational world. The most common problem is that the world is almost rational, but not entirely. Life is not a contradiction, but it is a trap for logicians.<b>It looks slightly more precise and regular than it actually is; Its precision is obvious, but its inaccurate side is hidden; Its wildness is also lurking.</b>(Bold added by the author) Returning to the luncheon described on the first page, the host's opening remarks were roughly as follows: \"In recent years, we have experienced events such as COVID-19 pandemic, the amazingly successful Fed bailout policy, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This is a very challenging environment because all of this comes out of the blue.\"</p><p>For him, I guess, this means that attendees should let themselves get rid of their inaccurate predictions for 2020-2022, continue to predict the future, and bet on their own judgment. But my reaction is completely different: \"There are many events affecting the current environment.<b>And isn't the fact that no one can predict any of them enough to convince those present that they should give up their prediction? \"</b></p><p>As another example, let's think back to the fall of 2016. There are two things that almost everyone is convinced of: (a) Hillary Clinton will be elected president; (2) If Donald Trump is elected for some reason, the market will collapse. Still, it turned out that Trump won and the market soared.</p><p>The past six years have had a profound impact on the economy and markets,<b>I believe that any prediction at the time that took the conventional view of the 2016 election would not have been correct.</b>Isn't that enough to convince people that (i) we don't know what the future holds, and (ii) we can't understand how the market will react to what happens?</p><p><b>Can forecasts bring excess?</b></p><p>It is not ignorance that keeps us in trouble, but fallacious assertions that seem correct. -Mark Twain As I mentioned in my recent memo \"Thinking About Macro,\" in the 1970s, we used to describe economists as \"investment directors who never enter the market.\" In other words, economists make numerous predictions; Actual circumstances will tell whether they are right or wrong; Then they proceed to make new predictions; But they don't track the frequency of correct predictions (or, they don't publish statistics).</p><p>Can you imagine hiring a fund manager without reference to your track record (or if you were a fund manager, can you imagine being hired in this situation)? But economists and strategists don't lose their jobs because they don't release statistics, probably because there are always clients willing to pay for their forecasts.</p><p>Are you a consumer of these predicted results? Are the forecasters and economists employees of your company? Or do you subscribe to their publications and invite them to briefing, as my previous employer did? If so, do you know how often everyone predicts correctly? Have you found a way to strictly determine which of these predictions can be relied on and which ones to ignore? Is there a way to quantify the contribution of these projections to your return on investment?</p><p>I asked this series of questions because I haven't seen or heard of any research in this area. It is hard to imagine that the global information about whether macro forecasts will bring excess returns is very scarce, especially compared with the number of people who need such information.</p><p>Despite the lack of evidence to prove its value, macro forecasts continue. Many forecasters are part of stock fund management teams, or are providing advice and forecasts to these teams.</p><p>One thing we know for sure is that actively managed equity funds have been losing market share for decades, being replaced by index funds and other passive investment vehicles due to the poor performance of active management, which now account for less than half of the U.S. equity mutual fund market. Macro forecasting is not essentially helpful to investment. Is it the reason?</p><p>As far as I know, the only quantitative information on this issue can be found is the performance of so-called macro hedge funds. The Hedge Fund Research Group (HFR) publishes the Hedge Fund Weighted Composite Index as well as some sub-strategy indices. Here's a look at the long-term performance of the Hedge Fund Weighted Composite Index, the Macro Hedge Substrategy Index, and the S&P 500 Index.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79717be010acf96241bf0336e5ac3381\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>* Performance as at 31 July 2022. The hedge fund index shown is a weighted composite index of each fund.</p><p>In the table above, according to data from HFR, the average hedge fund performed significantly below the S&P 500 during the study period, while the average macro hedge sub-strategy fund performed much worse (especially between 2012 and 2017). Given that investors continue to entrust roughly $4.5 trillion to hedge fund managers, the funds must offer some benefit beyond returns, but it's unclear what that will be. This seems to be especially true for macro hedge funds.</p><p>To confirm my view of prediction, I will give a rare example of self-assessment: a seven-page feature in the New York Times' \"Sunday View\" column on July 24th, entitled \"I was wrong.\" In the article, eight The New York Times \"Opinion\" columnists disclosed their wrong predictions and biased suggestions.</p><p>Most relevant here is a confession written by Paul Krugman entitled \"I Was Wrong About Inflation.\" I've extracted and concatenated some of them:</p><p>At the beginning of 2021, economists debated heavily about the possible consequences of the \"U.S. bailout plan\"... I was on [the side of supporting less concerns about the impact of inflation]. Of course, it turned out to be a very bad decision … … … history couldn't allow us to expect such overheated inflation. So something is wrong with my model … one possible reason is that history is misleading … moreover, perturbations created to adapt to the pandemic and its aftermath may still be playing a big role. Of course, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic prevention and control measures in major cities in China have undoubtedly pushed this interference to a whole new level... In any case, the whole thing has become a lesson in humility. Incredibly, the standard economic model has been working fairly well after the 2008 financial crisis, and I thought there was no problem at the time applying the same model in 2021. In retrospect, I should have realized at that time that this inference is inherently risky in the new world trend that emerged after COVID-19 pandemic. (Bold added) I admire Krugman for showing such amazing frankness (although I have to say that I don't recall many market forecasts between 2009 and 2010 that were optimistic enough to portray the actual situation of the following decade).<b>Krugman's explanation of his error is good in itself, but I don't see him mention giving up modeling, inference or prediction in the future.</b></p><p>This humility may even trickle down to the Federal Reserve, one of the world's largest economic forecasting agencies, with more than 400 PhDs in economics. Here's what economist Gary Shilling wrote in \"Bloomberg Opinion\" on August 22:</p><p>The Fed's forward guidance has become a disaster, challenging its own credibility. Chairman Jerome Powell seems to hold the same view. The outside world should stop speculating on the Fed's views on interest rates, economic growth and inflation at different times in the future...<b>The fundamental problem with forward guidance is that it relies on data, which itself comes from the Fed's poor forecast record in the past.</b>The Federal Reserve has been overly optimistic about the economic recovery after the Great Recession of 2007-2009. In September 2014, policymakers predicted that the real GDP growth rate in 2015 would be 3.40%, but by September 2015, they were forced to continuously lower their expectations to 2.10%.<b>Federal Funds rate is not an interest rate determined by the market, but set and controlled by the Federal Reserve, and no one challenges the authority of the Federal Reserve. In addition, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are notoriously bad at predicting what actions they themselves will take...</b>In 2015, their average forecast for Federal Funds rate in 2016 was 0.90% and in 2019 was 3.30%. The actual numbers are 0.38% and 2.38%, respectively … To be sure, many ongoing events have created uncertainty in the market, but the Fed's forward guidance has been highly sought after and important. Recall that earlier this year, the Fed also considered inflation caused by the pandemic and friction over restarting the economy after supply chain disruptions to be transitory. It wasn't until later that the Federal Reserve found that the situation was not good, turned around, raised interest rates, and signaled further sharp rate hike. The Fed's erroneous forecasts led to erroneous forward guidance, exacerbating financial market volatility. (Bold added by the author) I would like to mention one more final point on this issue, that is, where are those who make fame (and get rich) by profiting from macro views? Of course, I can't know everyone in the investment community, but among the people I know or know, I think there are only a few very successful \"macro investors\". When there are few examples of something, as my mother once said, \"the exception just confirms the rule\".</p><p><b>The rule in this example is that macro forecasts rarely lead to outstanding performance. For me, the extraordinary success stories just prove that this statement is universal truth.</b></p><p><b>Predicted needs of practitioners</b></p><p>Compared with revealing the future, prediction can reveal the predictor better. -Warren Buffett How many people can make macro predictions that are valuable most of the time? I don't think it's much. How many investment managers, economists and forecasters have tried? There are thousands at least. This raises an interesting question: Why predict? If macro forecasting won't help investment success over time, why do so many practitioners in the investment management industry believe in forecasting and flock to forecast results? I think a typical reason for this might be:</p><p><ul><li>It's part of the job.</p><p></li><li>Investors have always done this.</p><p></li><li>Everyone I know does it, especially my competitors.</p><p></li><li>I've been doing this all the time-I can't stop there right now.</p><p></li><li>If I don't, I won't be able to attract clients.</p><p></li><li>Since investment involves deploying capital in order to benefit from future events, how can we expect to do a good job without a perspective on those events? We need predictions, even if they aren't perfect.</p><p></li></ul>This summer my son Andrew recommended me to read a very interesting book: Making Mistakes (But It's Not My Fault): Why We Make Excuses for Stupid Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Behaviors. Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts, It was written by psychologists Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson.<b>The theme of the book is self-defense.</b></p><p><b>The authors explain that \"cognitive dissonance\" occurs when people are faced with new evidence to question their previous positions, and when this happens, the subconscious will make them try their best to prove and maintain their previous positions.</b>Here are some selected snippets:</p><p>If you hold a set of beliefs that guide your practice, and you learn that some of them are incorrect, you must either admit that you are wrong and change your approach, or reject the new evidence. Most people, when directly confronted with evidence that they have done something wrong, do not change their views or action plans, but argue more stubbornly. Once we have identified a belief and proved its wisdom, it is obviously hard work to change our minds. It is much easier to put new evidence into an existing framework for psychological argumentation in order to accept it than to change the framework. The mechanisms that people commonly employ in responding to evidence that calls their beliefs into question include these (paraphrasing the author's words):</p><p><ul><li>Unwilling to listen to messages of discord;</p><p></li><li>Selectively remember parts of their lives, focusing on those parts that support their own views; as well as</p><p></li><li>Acting under a cognitive bias that makes people see only what they want to see and seeks some kind of confirmation for what they already believe.</p><p></li></ul>These are, I believe, factors that cause people to consistently make predictions and rely on them. In this case, what kind of manifestations will there be?</p><p><ul><li>View macro forecasts as an integral part of investing;</p><p></li><li>Passionate about recalling correct forecasts, especially those that are bold, non-market consensus;</p><p></li><li>Overestimate the accuracy of the prediction;</p><p></li><li>Forgetting or downplaying false predictions;</p><p></li><li>Failure to keep records of prediction accuracy or failure to calculate average success rates;</p><p></li><li>Pay attention to the rich returns that reward accurate predictions;</p><p></li><li>Emphasize that \"everyone does this\"; as well as</p><p></li><li>Perhaps most importantly, blame unsuccessful predictions on being blinded by random events or exogenous events. (But, as I said before, this is the crux of the matter: why do predictions if they become so easily inaccurate?)</p><p></li></ul>Most people-even honest people with good hearts-take positions or actions that are in their own interests, sometimes at the expense of others or objective truth. They can't detect this situation themselves, but instead think that what they are doing is the right thing; They also sought a lot of justification. As Charlie Munger often quoted Demosthenes, \"Nothing is easier than deceiving oneself. Because people always believe what they want.\"</p><p>I don't think forecasters are crooks or charlatans. Most of them are intelligent intellectuals who think they are doing something useful.<b>But self-interest causes them to behave in a certain way, and self-justification causes them to stick to their guns in the face of evidence to the contrary.</b>As Morgan Housel said in a recent newsletter:</p><p>The inability to predict the past has no impact on our willingness to predict the future. Certainty is so precious that we never give up the pursuit of it, and if people were honest about how unpredictable the future is, most people would not be able to get out of bed in the early morning. (From \"Big Faith,\" Collaborative Fund, August 24, 2022) On my birthday a few years ago, Richard Masson, co-founder of Oak Tree, gave me a fun gift that fits his style. The gift that time was<i>The New York Times</i>The bound volume of. I've been hoping for the opportunity to write my favorite subtitle from the issue of October 30, 1929. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just fallen by nearly 23% in two days.</p><p><b>The title reads, \"Bankers Optimistic.\"</b>(However, in the next three years, the Dow Jones index fell by about 85%). Most bankers and money managers seem to be inherently optimistic about the future. Apart from that, it is in their best interest as it helps them do more business. But their optimism certainly makes for their predictive views and the resulting behavior.</p><p><b>Can or can't?</b></p><p>\"I never think about the future-because it is coming soon.\"-Albert Einstein considered the following aspects of macro prediction:</p><p><ul><li>The number of assumptions/inputs required,</p><p></li><li>Number of processes/relationships to be included,</p><p></li><li>The inherent unreliability and instability of these processes, and</p><p></li><li>The role of randomness and the possibility of accidents.</p><p></li></ul>The most important thing to me is that predictions can't always be correct enough to have value. I've mentioned this many times, but for the sake of completeness, I'll reiterate my opinion on the utility (or rather, futility) of macro forecasting:</p><p><ul><li>Most predictions consist of extrapolations of past performance.</p><p></li><li>Since macro developments do not usually deviate from previous trends, inferences are usually successful.</p><p></li><li>On this basis, most of the predictions are correct. However, since inference is usually expected by the price of the security, those who expect based on inference will not enjoy excess benefits when the inference is established.</p><p></li><li>Occasionally, economic behavior does substantially deviate from past patterns. Since this deviation is unexpected to most investors, its appearance affects the market, meaning that an accurate prediction of the deviation will lead to lucrative profits.</p><p></li><li>However, because the economy does not often deviate from past performance, few accurate predictions of deviations can be made, and most deviation predictions prove to be wrong afterwards.</p><p></li><li>So we have (i) inferred forecasts, most of which are correct but do not yield excess benefits, and (ii) potentially profitable bias forecasts that will rarely be correct and therefore usually do not yield excess benefits either.</p><p></li><li>It is argued that most forecasts do not increase returns.</p><p></li></ul>During the luncheon mentioned at the beginning of this memo, people were asked what they expected about things like Fed policy and how that affected their investment stance. One person replied, \"I think the Fed will remain highly worried about inflation, so there will be a sharp rate hike, which will lead to a recession. So I choose risk-off.\" Another said, \"I expect inflation to slow in the fourth quarter, and the Fed will turn dovish in January next year. Start cutting interest rates and stimulating the economy. I am very bullish on 2023.\"</p><p>We hear this saying all the time.<b>But it must be recognized that these people are using one-factor models:</b>The speaker's prediction is based on a single variable. Speaking of simplifying assumptions: These forecasters implicitly assume that everything except the Fed's policy is constant. When it was time to play three-dimensional chess, they were still playing flat checkers.</p><p>Putting aside the impossibility of predicting the Fed's behavior, the impact of inflation on that behavior, and the market's reaction to inflation, what other important considerations? If there are a thousand things that play a role in determining the future direction of the economy and markets, what are the other 999 things? What about the impact of wage negotiations, mid-term elections, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and oil prices?</p><p>The truth is that people can only remember a very limited number of things in their minds at any given time.<b>It is difficult to take a large number of factors into account, and it is even harder to understand how a large number of things will interact (correlation is always the real thinking problem).</b></p><p>Even if you somehow manage to get the economic forecast right, that's only half the battle. You still need to predict how economic activity will translate into market outcomes. This requires a completely different prediction and also involves a myriad of variables, many of which are related to psychological factors and therefore almost unknowable.</p><p>According to student Warren Buffett, Ben Graham once said: \"In the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term, it is a weighing machine.\" How to predict investors' short-term choices? Some economic forecasters have concluded that the actions announced by the Federal Reserve and Treasury in March 2020 will save the U.S. economy and help the economic recovery. But I don't know anyone who predicted a hot bull market before the recovery began.</p><p>As I mentioned earlier, in 2016 Buffett shared his views on macro forecasts with me. \"For a piece of information to be effective, it must meet two criteria: First, it must<b>Significant</b>, secondly must<b>Can be seen</b>。\"</p><p><ul><li><b>Of course, the macro outlook matters.</b>Today, investors seem to be grasping every forecaster's words, macro events, and signals from the Fed's intermittent tightening actions. Unlike my early days in this industry, today it seems that macro factors are everything, and enterprise development is less concerned.</p><p></li><li><b>But I strongly agree with Buffett that the macro future is unknowable,</b>Or at least almost no one can consistently know more than the majority of investors, and this is the key to trying to gain cognitive advantage and make excellent investment decisions.</p><p></li></ul>Obviously, Buffett's name tops the list of successful investors. He avoids macro predictions and pays more attention to the \"micro\" areas than others: companies, industries and securities, so as to succeed.</p><p>I introduced the concepts of \"knowable\" and \"agnostic\" schools in a 2001 memo entitled \"What's It All About, Alpha?\" And elaborated on them in 2004 in the article \"Us and Them.\" To conclude the current memo, I will insert some of what I wrote about these two genres in the latter:</p><p>Most of the investors I've met over the years have fallen into the \"knowability\" school. This was true when I analyzed stocks between 1968 and 1978, and even when I switched to non-mainstream investing, but still worked for an equity-centric investment management company between 1978 and 1995.</p><p>Identifying members of the \"knowability\" genre is easy:</p><p><ul><li>They believe that understanding the future direction of the economy, interest rates, markets and widely watched mainstream stocks is critical to investment success.</p><p></li><li>They are confident that they can achieve this.</p><p></li><li>They know they can do it.</p><p></li><li>They know that many people are trying to do this, but they think that either (i) everyone can succeed at the same time, or (ii) only a few people can do it, but they are one of them.</p><p></li><li>They are willing to invest based on their vision of the future.</p><p></li><li>They are also happy to share their opinions with others, although correct predictions should be worth a thousand dollars, and no one will give them away for free.</p><p></li><li>They rarely look back and seriously review their achievements as forecasters.</p><p></li></ul>\"Confidence\" is the key word to describe members of the genre. On the other hand, for the \"agnostic\" school, this word should be \"cautious\", especially when looking at the macro future.<b>Its believers usually think that the future cannot be predicted; Nor do you have to predict the future; The correct goal should be to do your best to make a good investment on the basis of admitting that you don't have this awareness.</b></p><p>As a member of the \"knowability\" school, you can express your opinion about the future (and maybe someone here takes notes). You may be sought after and seen as the ideal dinner guest … especially when the stock market is rising.</p><p>If the \"agnostic\" genre is added, the results are even more complicated. You will soon get tired of expressing \"agnosticism\" to friends and strangers. It won't be long before even relatives stop asking you what you think about market movements. You will never enjoy the one-thousandth surprise moment when your prediction comes true, nor will you enjoy the joy of publishing your photo in the Wall Street Journal.</p><p>On the other hand, you are also protected from prediction errors and losses caused by investing based on excessive confidence in the future.<b>But when a potential customer asks you about your investment prospects and you have to say \"I don't know\", how do you think it will feel?</b></p><p>For me, the best bottom-line criterion for judging which genre is based on the late Stanford behavioral scientist Amos Tversky:<b>\"It's scary to realize that you may not know something, but even more scary is to realize that, in general, the world is run by people who firmly believe they know exactly what's happening.\"</b></p><p>In the investment management business, it is of course standard practice to put forward macro forecasts, share them upon request, and be entrusted with investing for clients on this basis. It also seems to be common practice for fund managers to believe in forecasting, especially their own. As mentioned above, it seems out of place not to do so. But are their beliefs realistic? I'd love to hear everyone's views.</p><p>Many years ago, a well-respected sell-side economist (an old acquaintance of mine when I was at Citi) called me: \"You changed my life,\" he said. \"I've long stopped making predictions. Instead, I just tell people what happened today and what I think might impact the future. Life is better ever since.\" Can I help you achieve the same state of happiness?</p><p>Author of this article: Howard Marks</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1658993322555","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Howard Marks' latest memo: The illusion of cognition</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoward Marks' latest memo: The illusion of cognition\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">橡树资本Oaktree Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-09 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>I started writing my first memo in February 1993, \"The Value of Prediction, Where does the Rain Come from?\" The Value of Projections, or Where'd All This Rain Come From In the beginning, I've been saying that I'm ignoring \"predictions\".</p><p>In the years since then, I have explained in detail why I am not interested in forecasting-some of my favorite quotes in the following chapters echo my disdain for forecasting-but I have never written a memo dedicated to why it is so difficult to make good macro forecasts. Hence this memo.</p><p><b>Introduce thoughtful things</b></p><p>There are two kinds of prophets in the world: one who knows nothing about the future, and the other who doesn't know that they know nothing. -John Kenneth Galbraith Shortly after the final polishing memo I Beg to Differ, I attended a luncheon with some experienced investors and people outside the investment circle. This is not a social event, but an opportunity for those present to exchange views on the investment environment.</p><p>During the period, the host asked a series of questions: How do you expect inflation to develop? Will there be a recession, and if so, how severe is it? How will the Russia-Ukraine conflict end? What are the likely effects of the 2022 and 2024 U.S. elections? I've heard a variety of opinions about this.</p><p>Readers who have long followed my memo should be able to imagine what I was thinking at the time: \"No one in this room is an expert in foreign affairs or politics. No one present has particularly in-depth insights into these topics, and certainly no more than the average person reading this morning's news.\" The ideas conveyed, even on economic issues, seem no more convincing than others, and I am absolutely convinced that no one can improve investment outcomes. And that's the key.</p><p>It was that luncheon that got me thinking about writing another memo about the unhelpful macro outlook. Soon after, I found some additional material-a book, an article from<i>Bloomberg View Bloomberg Opinion</i>And a newspaper article-these materials all support my argument (and possibly my \"confirmation bias\"-that is, people tend to accept and believe information and arguments that can prove their previous opinions). That luncheon and these materials together inspired the theme of this memo:<b>There are many reasons why prediction is rarely beneficial.</b></p><p>To get something useful-whether in manufacturing, academia, or even the arts-there must be a reliable<b>Process</b>, able to combine the required<b>Input</b>Convert to desired<b>Output</b>。 The problem, in short, is that I don't think there is a process that consistently converts a large number of variables (inputs) related to the economy and financial markets into useful macro forecasts (outputs).</p><p><b>Models</b></p><p>The greatest enemy of cognition is not ignorance, but the illusion of cognition. -Daniel Burstin About my first ten years at First National City Bank, there was a word that was so popular at the time that I haven't heard for a long time now: econometrics. Specifically, it refers to the practice of finding correlations in economic data to produce effective forecasts. Or, in short, econometrics studies how to build mathematical models of the economy. In the 1970s, econometrics were hot, but I don't think they are glorious now. I think that means their model isn't working.</p><p><b>Whether the model is sophisticated or scribbled simple, mathematically based or intuitive, forecasters have no choice but to make judgments based on the model.</b>Models are by definition composed of assumptions: \"If A happens, then B happens.\" In other words, models state relationships and responses. But if we are willing to adopt the output of the model, we must believe that the model is reliable. But when I think about modeling the economy, my first reaction is how complicated it will be.</p><p>The United States, for example, has a population of approximately 330 million. Except for the particularly young and some particularly elderly, the rest of the people are economic participants. So there are hundreds of millions of consumers, as well as millions of workers, producers, and middlemen (many satisfying multiple classifications). To predict the development path of the economy, we must predict the behavior of these people-if not each participant, at least the total group.</p><p>Realistic simulations of the U.S. economy must deal with billions of interactions or nodes, including with suppliers, customers, and other market participants across the globe. Is it possible to do this? For example, is it possible to predict the behavior of consumers in the following situations: (i) if they get an extra dollar of income (what is the \"marginal propensity to consume\"?); (ii) if energy prices rise, squeezing other categories in the household budget; (iii) If the price of one commodity rises relative to other commodities (will there be a \"substitution effect\"?); And (iv) what if the geopolitical arena is stirred up by events on other continents?</p><p>Obviously, this level of complexity requires frequent use of simplified assumptions. For example, modeling would be easier if it could be assumed that consumers would not buy B instead of A in situations where B is not better or cheaper (or both). It also helps if it is assumed that the cost of producing X is no less than Y, then the producer will not price X less than Y.</p><p>But despite B's higher price (or even because of it), consumers are still attracted to B's brand effect. What will happen? What if X was produced and developed by entrepreneurs willing to spend a few years losing money to gain market share? Is it possible for models to predict the decisions of consumers who are willing to spend more and entrepreneurs who are willing to make less money (or even lose)?</p><p>Furthermore, the model must predict the behavior of each group of actors in the economy in various environments. But the unpredictable factors are multifaceted. For example, a consumer may behave in one way at one moment and in a different way at another similar moment. Given the large number of variables involved, it seems unlikely that two \"similar\" moments will occur in exactly the same way, and it is unlikely that we will see economic actors exhibiting the same behavior.</p><p>In addition to this, participants'behavior will be influenced by their psychology (or should I say their emotions?), and their psychology may be influenced by qualitative, non-economic developments. How are these modeled?</p><p>How can an economic model be comprehensive enough to deal with situations that have never been encountered before, or that have not occurred in modern times (i.e. under comparable circumstances)? This is another example of how models can't simply replicate something as complex as an economy.</p><p>Of course, one of the prime examples is COVID-19 pandemic. It shut down most of the world's economies, upended consumer behavior, and inspired large-scale government bailouts. Which aspect of the existing model can predict the impact of the epidemic? Yes, the world had experienced a pandemic in 1918, but it was so different (there were no iPhones, Zoom calls, etc) that the economic state of affairs of that period was hardly any comparable to 2020.</p><p>In addition to factors such as complexity and difficulty in capturing psychological fluctuations and dynamic processes, it is also necessary to consider the inherent limitations of trying to predict things that cannot be expected to remain the same. Not long after I began writing this memo, I received Morgan Housel's usual wonderful weekly magazine. One of the articles describes a lot of observations in other areas related to our economy and investment.</p><p>The following two are borrowed from the field of statistics, and I think they are relevant to the discussion of economic models and forecasts (\"Little ways the world works (Little Ways the World Works) \", Morgan Housel,<i>Collaborative Fund</i>, 20 July 2022):</p><p>Stationarity: This is an assumption that history can be used as a guide for future statistics based on the fact that the main factors affecting the system do not change over time. If you want to know how high a levee to build, look at flood data for the past 100 years and assume it will be the same for the next 100 years. Stationarity is a wonderful, science-based concept, and it is valid until it fails. It is the main driver of important events in economy and politics. [But in our world,] \"things that have never happened before are happening all the time,\" said Stanford professor Scott Sagan. Cromwell's Law: Never say something won't happen.... Even if there is only a one in a billion chance that something will come true, and you will interact with billions of things in your lifetime, so you will almost certainly experience some shocking unexpected events and should always be open to the possibility of the unthinkable becoming a reality. Stationarity may be a reasonable assumption in the field of physical sciences. For example, due to the law of universal gravity, under given atmospheric conditions, objects can always descend at the same acceleration. It always turned out to be that way and always will be that way. But few processes in our field are smooth, especially given psychological, emotional, and human behavior, and they change over time.</p><p>Take, for example, the relationship between unemployment and inflation. For the past 60 years or so, economists have relied on the Phillips curve, which believes that wage inflation will rise as unemployment rates fall, because when there are fewer unemployed workers, employees gain bargaining power and can successfully negotiate higher wages. For decades, the unemployment rate of 5.5% was also considered to indicate \"full employment\".</p><p>But unemployment fell below 5.5% in March 2015 (and reached a 50-year low of 3.5% in September 2019), but inflation (wages or otherwise) did not rise significantly until 2021. The important relationship described by the Phillips curve has been applied to various economic models built over the decades, but it doesn't seem to be applicable for most of the past decade.</p><p>Cromwell's law is equally important. Unlike physical science, there are few things that absolutely must or must not happen in the market and economic fields. Therefore, in<i>\"Cycle\"</i>（<i>Mastering the Market Cycle</i>I list seven terms that investors should remove from their glossary: \"never\", \"always\", \"never\", \"can't\", \"won't\", \"will\" and \"must\". But if these words really must be discarded, then the idea of building models that reliably predict the macro future must also be discarded. In other words, almost nothing is immutable in our field.</p><p>The unpredictability of behavior is my favorite topic. The famous physicist Richard Feynman once said, \"Imagine how difficult physics would be if electrons had a sense.\" The rules of physics are reliable precisely because electrons always do what they are supposed to do. They will never forget to fulfill their responsibilities. They never resist. They never strike. They never innovate. They never act in the opposite way.</p><p><b>But none of these apply to participants in the economy, and it is precisely because they do not apply that the behavior of participants is unpredictable. If the behavior of participants is unpredictable, how can we model the operation of the economy?</b></p><p><b>We are talking about the future, and there is no way to predict the future without making assumptions.</b>Small errors in assumptions about the economic environment and subtle changes in the behavior of participants can cause serious problems. As mathematics and meteorologist Edward Lorenz famously wrote: \"A Brazilian butterfly flapping its wings could cause a tornado in Texas.\" (Historian Niall Ferguson mentions this in an article discussed below.)</p><p>In summary, can we consider the economic model to be reliable? Can the model replicate reality? Can it describe the behavior of millions of participants and their interactions? Is the process trying to model reliable? Can these processes be simplified to mathematics? Can mathematics capture the qualitative nuances of people and their behaviors? Can models predict changes in consumer preferences, changes in firm behavior, and participant responses to innovation? In other words, can we trust the output of the model?</p><p>Obviously, economic relations are not set in stone, and economies are not governed by schematics (schematics that models try to simulate). So the bottom line for me is that, without violating the assumptions, the output of the model points in the right direction most of the time. But it can't always be accurate, especially at critical moments such as inflection points … and that's when accurate predictions are most valuable.</p><p><b>Input</b></p><p>One fact that cannot be ignored is that all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future. -Ian H. Wilson (former GE executive) After considering the incredible complexity of the economy and the need to make simplified assumptions (which will reduce the accuracy of any economic model), let's now consider the input required by a model-the raw materials that make forecasts. Is the estimated input valid? Can we understand them deeply enough to draw meaningful predictions?<b>Or do we simply remind us of the ultimate truth about models: \"Input rubbish, output rubbish\"?</b>Obviously, the quality of no prediction will be better than the quality of the input on which it is based.</p><p>Here's what Neil Ferguson said on July 17 at<i>Bloomberg View Bloomberg Opinion</i>Content written:</p><p>Consider what we really wanted to ask when we asked the question \"Has inflation peaked?\" We're not just asking about the supply and demand of 94,000 different goods, manufactured goods, and services. We are still concerned about the future interest rate path set by the Federal Reserve. Aside from the much-touted \"forward guidance\", it is still far from clear where it will go. What we are asking is how long the dollar strength will continue, as it is currently driving down the prices of American imports. But there are more questions to be answered. At the same time, the above questions are also indirectly asking how long the Russia-Ukraine conflict will last, because the chaos caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly exacerbated the inflation of energy and food prices since February. We are asking if oil producers like Saudi Arabia will respond to requests from Western governments to increase crude oil production...... we should probably also ask ourselves what impact the latest Novel Coronavirus Omicron BA.5 will have on Western labor markets. UK data show that BA.5 is 35% more contagious than its predecessor BA.2, which in turn is more than 20% more contagious than the original Omicron. If you want to add all these variables to your model, then I wish you good luck. In fact, the future path of inflation, like the future direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the spread path of COVID-19 pandemic, is uncertain. I found Ferguson's article so relevant to the subject of this memo that I am attaching a link to it here. The article makes a lot of important points, although I beg to differ on one aspect. Ferguson mentioned above, \"In fact, the future path of inflation, like the future direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the spread path of COVID-19 pandemic, is as uncertain.\"</p><p>I think accurately predicting inflation is \"less likely\" (if it can be predicted) than predicting the other two problems, because accurately predicting inflation requires correct predictions of these two events and a thousand other influencing factors. How can anyone get all these things right?</p><p>Let me briefly introduce the forecasting process mentioned in \"The Value of Forecasting\":</p><p>I guess, for most fund managers, the process looks like this: \"I predict that the economy will do A. If A happens, interest rates should show B. If interest rates are B, the stock market should show C. In this environment, the best performing sector should be D, and stock E should rise the most.\" Then build the portfolio accordingly to achieve the best performance in this situation. But anyway, how likely is E? Keep in mind that E is conditional on A, B, C, and D. In the field of forecasting, a two-thirds correct rate will be an extraordinary achievement. But if there is a 67% chance that each of the five predictions is correct, the result is that there is a 13% chance that all five predictions are correct and the stock will perform as expected.<b>Predicting event E based on assumptions about A, B, C, and D is what I call single-scenario forecasting.</b>In other words, if the hypothetical results about A, B, C, or D prove to be false, then the predicted results of E are unlikely to be realized. Only if all potential predictions are correct can E get the same result as predicted, but this is extremely rare. No one can make a wise investment without considering (i) other possible outcomes for each element, (ii) the likelihood of other scenarios emerging, (iii) what are the prerequisites for making one of these hypotheses a reality, and (iv) what are the implications for E.</p><p>Ferguson's article raises an interesting question about economic modeling: What assumptions should we make about what macro environment economic participants are in? This<b>This question just shows an infinite loop: in order to predict the overall performance of the economy, we need to make assumptions about consumer behavior and other aspects. But to predict consumer behavior, don't we need to make assumptions about the overall economic environment?</b></p><p>In my first memo on the pandemic, Nobody Knows II (March 2020), I mentioned that when discussing the coronavirus, Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch had said: (i) facts; (2) Founded inferences drawn by analogy with other viruses, and (3) opinions or speculations. This is our standard practice when dealing with uncertain events. In economic or market forecasting, we have plenty of history and many similar past events to extrapolate (but none of COVID-19 pandemic). But even if these things are used as input by a well-constructed predictive model, they are still unlikely to predict the future. They can be useful fodder, or they can be junk.</p><p>To illustrate this, people often ask me which cycle I have experienced in the past is most similar to the current one. My answer is that current developments have transient similarities to some past cycles, but no absolute similarities.<b>In each case, the differences are enormous and outweigh the similarities.</b></p><p><b>Even if we can find an identical previous period, to what extent should we rely on this single sample? I guess the answer is not much. Investors rely on historical references (and the forecasts they make based on them) because they fear that without them, they will play blind. But this does not mean that these materials are reliable.</b></p><p><b>Unpredictable effects</b></p><p>Prediction creates the mirage that the future is knowable. -Peter Bernstein<b>We cannot consider the plausibility of predictions without first determining whether our world is orderly or random.</b>In short, is it completely predictable, completely unpredictable, or somewhere in between? For me, the conclusion is somewhere in between, but more inclined to be unpredictable, so much so that most predictions don't help. Since our world is predictable at some times and unpredictable at others, what good are predictions if we can't tell the difference between when it is predictable and when it is unpredictable?</p><p>I learned a new word from reading Ferguson's article: \"deterministic\". The Oxford Dictionary defines it as \"causally determined by previous events or natural laws\". The world is so much simpler when we handle things by rules … like Feynman's electron. But it is clear that economies and markets are not governed by the laws of nature-thanks to human participation-and that previous events may be \"foreshadowing\" or \"tending to repeat\", but events rarely happen twice in the same way. So I think the processes that make up the functioning of economies and markets are not deterministic, meaning they are unpredictable.</p><p>Furthermore, the input is obviously unreliable. A lot of it is random, such as weather, earthquakes, accidents and deaths. Others deal with political and geopolitical issues-some we know, some haven't surfaced yet.</p><p>In his Bloomberg Opinion article, Ferguson mentioned the British writer G.K. Chesterton G.K. Chesterton. This reminds me of the Chesterton quote I quoted in Risk Revisited Again (June 2015):</p><p>The real problem with our world today is not that the world is irrational, nor is it a rational world. The most common problem is that the world is almost rational, but not entirely. Life is not a contradiction, but it is a trap for logicians.<b>It looks slightly more precise and regular than it actually is; Its precision is obvious, but its inaccurate side is hidden; Its wildness is also lurking.</b>(Bold added by the author) Returning to the luncheon described on the first page, the host's opening remarks were roughly as follows: \"In recent years, we have experienced events such as COVID-19 pandemic, the amazingly successful Fed bailout policy, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This is a very challenging environment because all of this comes out of the blue.\"</p><p>For him, I guess, this means that attendees should let themselves get rid of their inaccurate predictions for 2020-2022, continue to predict the future, and bet on their own judgment. But my reaction is completely different: \"There are many events affecting the current environment.<b>And isn't the fact that no one can predict any of them enough to convince those present that they should give up their prediction? \"</b></p><p>As another example, let's think back to the fall of 2016. There are two things that almost everyone is convinced of: (a) Hillary Clinton will be elected president; (2) If Donald Trump is elected for some reason, the market will collapse. Still, it turned out that Trump won and the market soared.</p><p>The past six years have had a profound impact on the economy and markets,<b>I believe that any prediction at the time that took the conventional view of the 2016 election would not have been correct.</b>Isn't that enough to convince people that (i) we don't know what the future holds, and (ii) we can't understand how the market will react to what happens?</p><p><b>Can forecasts bring excess?</b></p><p>It is not ignorance that keeps us in trouble, but fallacious assertions that seem correct. -Mark Twain As I mentioned in my recent memo \"Thinking About Macro,\" in the 1970s, we used to describe economists as \"investment directors who never enter the market.\" In other words, economists make numerous predictions; Actual circumstances will tell whether they are right or wrong; Then they proceed to make new predictions; But they don't track the frequency of correct predictions (or, they don't publish statistics).</p><p>Can you imagine hiring a fund manager without reference to your track record (or if you were a fund manager, can you imagine being hired in this situation)? But economists and strategists don't lose their jobs because they don't release statistics, probably because there are always clients willing to pay for their forecasts.</p><p>Are you a consumer of these predicted results? Are the forecasters and economists employees of your company? Or do you subscribe to their publications and invite them to briefing, as my previous employer did? If so, do you know how often everyone predicts correctly? Have you found a way to strictly determine which of these predictions can be relied on and which ones to ignore? Is there a way to quantify the contribution of these projections to your return on investment?</p><p>I asked this series of questions because I haven't seen or heard of any research in this area. It is hard to imagine that the global information about whether macro forecasts will bring excess returns is very scarce, especially compared with the number of people who need such information.</p><p>Despite the lack of evidence to prove its value, macro forecasts continue. Many forecasters are part of stock fund management teams, or are providing advice and forecasts to these teams.</p><p>One thing we know for sure is that actively managed equity funds have been losing market share for decades, being replaced by index funds and other passive investment vehicles due to the poor performance of active management, which now account for less than half of the U.S. equity mutual fund market. Macro forecasting is not essentially helpful to investment. Is it the reason?</p><p>As far as I know, the only quantitative information on this issue can be found is the performance of so-called macro hedge funds. The Hedge Fund Research Group (HFR) publishes the Hedge Fund Weighted Composite Index as well as some sub-strategy indices. Here's a look at the long-term performance of the Hedge Fund Weighted Composite Index, the Macro Hedge Substrategy Index, and the S&P 500 Index.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79717be010acf96241bf0336e5ac3381\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>* Performance as at 31 July 2022. The hedge fund index shown is a weighted composite index of each fund.</p><p>In the table above, according to data from HFR, the average hedge fund performed significantly below the S&P 500 during the study period, while the average macro hedge sub-strategy fund performed much worse (especially between 2012 and 2017). Given that investors continue to entrust roughly $4.5 trillion to hedge fund managers, the funds must offer some benefit beyond returns, but it's unclear what that will be. This seems to be especially true for macro hedge funds.</p><p>To confirm my view of prediction, I will give a rare example of self-assessment: a seven-page feature in the New York Times' \"Sunday View\" column on July 24th, entitled \"I was wrong.\" In the article, eight The New York Times \"Opinion\" columnists disclosed their wrong predictions and biased suggestions.</p><p>Most relevant here is a confession written by Paul Krugman entitled \"I Was Wrong About Inflation.\" I've extracted and concatenated some of them:</p><p>At the beginning of 2021, economists debated heavily about the possible consequences of the \"U.S. bailout plan\"... I was on [the side of supporting less concerns about the impact of inflation]. Of course, it turned out to be a very bad decision … … … history couldn't allow us to expect such overheated inflation. So something is wrong with my model … one possible reason is that history is misleading … moreover, perturbations created to adapt to the pandemic and its aftermath may still be playing a big role. Of course, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic prevention and control measures in major cities in China have undoubtedly pushed this interference to a whole new level... In any case, the whole thing has become a lesson in humility. Incredibly, the standard economic model has been working fairly well after the 2008 financial crisis, and I thought there was no problem at the time applying the same model in 2021. In retrospect, I should have realized at that time that this inference is inherently risky in the new world trend that emerged after COVID-19 pandemic. (Bold added) I admire Krugman for showing such amazing frankness (although I have to say that I don't recall many market forecasts between 2009 and 2010 that were optimistic enough to portray the actual situation of the following decade).<b>Krugman's explanation of his error is good in itself, but I don't see him mention giving up modeling, inference or prediction in the future.</b></p><p>This humility may even trickle down to the Federal Reserve, one of the world's largest economic forecasting agencies, with more than 400 PhDs in economics. Here's what economist Gary Shilling wrote in \"Bloomberg Opinion\" on August 22:</p><p>The Fed's forward guidance has become a disaster, challenging its own credibility. Chairman Jerome Powell seems to hold the same view. The outside world should stop speculating on the Fed's views on interest rates, economic growth and inflation at different times in the future...<b>The fundamental problem with forward guidance is that it relies on data, which itself comes from the Fed's poor forecast record in the past.</b>The Federal Reserve has been overly optimistic about the economic recovery after the Great Recession of 2007-2009. In September 2014, policymakers predicted that the real GDP growth rate in 2015 would be 3.40%, but by September 2015, they were forced to continuously lower their expectations to 2.10%.<b>Federal Funds rate is not an interest rate determined by the market, but set and controlled by the Federal Reserve, and no one challenges the authority of the Federal Reserve. In addition, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are notoriously bad at predicting what actions they themselves will take...</b>In 2015, their average forecast for Federal Funds rate in 2016 was 0.90% and in 2019 was 3.30%. The actual numbers are 0.38% and 2.38%, respectively … To be sure, many ongoing events have created uncertainty in the market, but the Fed's forward guidance has been highly sought after and important. Recall that earlier this year, the Fed also considered inflation caused by the pandemic and friction over restarting the economy after supply chain disruptions to be transitory. It wasn't until later that the Federal Reserve found that the situation was not good, turned around, raised interest rates, and signaled further sharp rate hike. The Fed's erroneous forecasts led to erroneous forward guidance, exacerbating financial market volatility. (Bold added by the author) I would like to mention one more final point on this issue, that is, where are those who make fame (and get rich) by profiting from macro views? Of course, I can't know everyone in the investment community, but among the people I know or know, I think there are only a few very successful \"macro investors\". When there are few examples of something, as my mother once said, \"the exception just confirms the rule\".</p><p><b>The rule in this example is that macro forecasts rarely lead to outstanding performance. For me, the extraordinary success stories just prove that this statement is universal truth.</b></p><p><b>Predicted needs of practitioners</b></p><p>Compared with revealing the future, prediction can reveal the predictor better. -Warren Buffett How many people can make macro predictions that are valuable most of the time? I don't think it's much. How many investment managers, economists and forecasters have tried? There are thousands at least. This raises an interesting question: Why predict? If macro forecasting won't help investment success over time, why do so many practitioners in the investment management industry believe in forecasting and flock to forecast results? I think a typical reason for this might be:</p><p><ul><li>It's part of the job.</p><p></li><li>Investors have always done this.</p><p></li><li>Everyone I know does it, especially my competitors.</p><p></li><li>I've been doing this all the time-I can't stop there right now.</p><p></li><li>If I don't, I won't be able to attract clients.</p><p></li><li>Since investment involves deploying capital in order to benefit from future events, how can we expect to do a good job without a perspective on those events? We need predictions, even if they aren't perfect.</p><p></li></ul>This summer my son Andrew recommended me to read a very interesting book: Making Mistakes (But It's Not My Fault): Why We Make Excuses for Stupid Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Behaviors. Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts, It was written by psychologists Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson.<b>The theme of the book is self-defense.</b></p><p><b>The authors explain that \"cognitive dissonance\" occurs when people are faced with new evidence to question their previous positions, and when this happens, the subconscious will make them try their best to prove and maintain their previous positions.</b>Here are some selected snippets:</p><p>If you hold a set of beliefs that guide your practice, and you learn that some of them are incorrect, you must either admit that you are wrong and change your approach, or reject the new evidence. Most people, when directly confronted with evidence that they have done something wrong, do not change their views or action plans, but argue more stubbornly. Once we have identified a belief and proved its wisdom, it is obviously hard work to change our minds. It is much easier to put new evidence into an existing framework for psychological argumentation in order to accept it than to change the framework. The mechanisms that people commonly employ in responding to evidence that calls their beliefs into question include these (paraphrasing the author's words):</p><p><ul><li>Unwilling to listen to messages of discord;</p><p></li><li>Selectively remember parts of their lives, focusing on those parts that support their own views; as well as</p><p></li><li>Acting under a cognitive bias that makes people see only what they want to see and seeks some kind of confirmation for what they already believe.</p><p></li></ul>These are, I believe, factors that cause people to consistently make predictions and rely on them. In this case, what kind of manifestations will there be?</p><p><ul><li>View macro forecasts as an integral part of investing;</p><p></li><li>Passionate about recalling correct forecasts, especially those that are bold, non-market consensus;</p><p></li><li>Overestimate the accuracy of the prediction;</p><p></li><li>Forgetting or downplaying false predictions;</p><p></li><li>Failure to keep records of prediction accuracy or failure to calculate average success rates;</p><p></li><li>Pay attention to the rich returns that reward accurate predictions;</p><p></li><li>Emphasize that \"everyone does this\"; as well as</p><p></li><li>Perhaps most importantly, blame unsuccessful predictions on being blinded by random events or exogenous events. (But, as I said before, this is the crux of the matter: why do predictions if they become so easily inaccurate?)</p><p></li></ul>Most people-even honest people with good hearts-take positions or actions that are in their own interests, sometimes at the expense of others or objective truth. They can't detect this situation themselves, but instead think that what they are doing is the right thing; They also sought a lot of justification. As Charlie Munger often quoted Demosthenes, \"Nothing is easier than deceiving oneself. Because people always believe what they want.\"</p><p>I don't think forecasters are crooks or charlatans. Most of them are intelligent intellectuals who think they are doing something useful.<b>But self-interest causes them to behave in a certain way, and self-justification causes them to stick to their guns in the face of evidence to the contrary.</b>As Morgan Housel said in a recent newsletter:</p><p>The inability to predict the past has no impact on our willingness to predict the future. Certainty is so precious that we never give up the pursuit of it, and if people were honest about how unpredictable the future is, most people would not be able to get out of bed in the early morning. (From \"Big Faith,\" Collaborative Fund, August 24, 2022) On my birthday a few years ago, Richard Masson, co-founder of Oak Tree, gave me a fun gift that fits his style. The gift that time was<i>The New York Times</i>The bound volume of. I've been hoping for the opportunity to write my favorite subtitle from the issue of October 30, 1929. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just fallen by nearly 23% in two days.</p><p><b>The title reads, \"Bankers Optimistic.\"</b>(However, in the next three years, the Dow Jones index fell by about 85%). Most bankers and money managers seem to be inherently optimistic about the future. Apart from that, it is in their best interest as it helps them do more business. But their optimism certainly makes for their predictive views and the resulting behavior.</p><p><b>Can or can't?</b></p><p>\"I never think about the future-because it is coming soon.\"-Albert Einstein considered the following aspects of macro prediction:</p><p><ul><li>The number of assumptions/inputs required,</p><p></li><li>Number of processes/relationships to be included,</p><p></li><li>The inherent unreliability and instability of these processes, and</p><p></li><li>The role of randomness and the possibility of accidents.</p><p></li></ul>The most important thing to me is that predictions can't always be correct enough to have value. I've mentioned this many times, but for the sake of completeness, I'll reiterate my opinion on the utility (or rather, futility) of macro forecasting:</p><p><ul><li>Most predictions consist of extrapolations of past performance.</p><p></li><li>Since macro developments do not usually deviate from previous trends, inferences are usually successful.</p><p></li><li>On this basis, most of the predictions are correct. However, since inference is usually expected by the price of the security, those who expect based on inference will not enjoy excess benefits when the inference is established.</p><p></li><li>Occasionally, economic behavior does substantially deviate from past patterns. Since this deviation is unexpected to most investors, its appearance affects the market, meaning that an accurate prediction of the deviation will lead to lucrative profits.</p><p></li><li>However, because the economy does not often deviate from past performance, few accurate predictions of deviations can be made, and most deviation predictions prove to be wrong afterwards.</p><p></li><li>So we have (i) inferred forecasts, most of which are correct but do not yield excess benefits, and (ii) potentially profitable bias forecasts that will rarely be correct and therefore usually do not yield excess benefits either.</p><p></li><li>It is argued that most forecasts do not increase returns.</p><p></li></ul>During the luncheon mentioned at the beginning of this memo, people were asked what they expected about things like Fed policy and how that affected their investment stance. One person replied, \"I think the Fed will remain highly worried about inflation, so there will be a sharp rate hike, which will lead to a recession. So I choose risk-off.\" Another said, \"I expect inflation to slow in the fourth quarter, and the Fed will turn dovish in January next year. Start cutting interest rates and stimulating the economy. I am very bullish on 2023.\"</p><p>We hear this saying all the time.<b>But it must be recognized that these people are using one-factor models:</b>The speaker's prediction is based on a single variable. Speaking of simplifying assumptions: These forecasters implicitly assume that everything except the Fed's policy is constant. When it was time to play three-dimensional chess, they were still playing flat checkers.</p><p>Putting aside the impossibility of predicting the Fed's behavior, the impact of inflation on that behavior, and the market's reaction to inflation, what other important considerations? If there are a thousand things that play a role in determining the future direction of the economy and markets, what are the other 999 things? What about the impact of wage negotiations, mid-term elections, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and oil prices?</p><p>The truth is that people can only remember a very limited number of things in their minds at any given time.<b>It is difficult to take a large number of factors into account, and it is even harder to understand how a large number of things will interact (correlation is always the real thinking problem).</b></p><p>Even if you somehow manage to get the economic forecast right, that's only half the battle. You still need to predict how economic activity will translate into market outcomes. This requires a completely different prediction and also involves a myriad of variables, many of which are related to psychological factors and therefore almost unknowable.</p><p>According to student Warren Buffett, Ben Graham once said: \"In the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term, it is a weighing machine.\" How to predict investors' short-term choices? Some economic forecasters have concluded that the actions announced by the Federal Reserve and Treasury in March 2020 will save the U.S. economy and help the economic recovery. But I don't know anyone who predicted a hot bull market before the recovery began.</p><p>As I mentioned earlier, in 2016 Buffett shared his views on macro forecasts with me. \"For a piece of information to be effective, it must meet two criteria: First, it must<b>Significant</b>, secondly must<b>Can be seen</b>。\"</p><p><ul><li><b>Of course, the macro outlook matters.</b>Today, investors seem to be grasping every forecaster's words, macro events, and signals from the Fed's intermittent tightening actions. Unlike my early days in this industry, today it seems that macro factors are everything, and enterprise development is less concerned.</p><p></li><li><b>But I strongly agree with Buffett that the macro future is unknowable,</b>Or at least almost no one can consistently know more than the majority of investors, and this is the key to trying to gain cognitive advantage and make excellent investment decisions.</p><p></li></ul>Obviously, Buffett's name tops the list of successful investors. He avoids macro predictions and pays more attention to the \"micro\" areas than others: companies, industries and securities, so as to succeed.</p><p>I introduced the concepts of \"knowable\" and \"agnostic\" schools in a 2001 memo entitled \"What's It All About, Alpha?\" And elaborated on them in 2004 in the article \"Us and Them.\" To conclude the current memo, I will insert some of what I wrote about these two genres in the latter:</p><p>Most of the investors I've met over the years have fallen into the \"knowability\" school. This was true when I analyzed stocks between 1968 and 1978, and even when I switched to non-mainstream investing, but still worked for an equity-centric investment management company between 1978 and 1995.</p><p>Identifying members of the \"knowability\" genre is easy:</p><p><ul><li>They believe that understanding the future direction of the economy, interest rates, markets and widely watched mainstream stocks is critical to investment success.</p><p></li><li>They are confident that they can achieve this.</p><p></li><li>They know they can do it.</p><p></li><li>They know that many people are trying to do this, but they think that either (i) everyone can succeed at the same time, or (ii) only a few people can do it, but they are one of them.</p><p></li><li>They are willing to invest based on their vision of the future.</p><p></li><li>They are also happy to share their opinions with others, although correct predictions should be worth a thousand dollars, and no one will give them away for free.</p><p></li><li>They rarely look back and seriously review their achievements as forecasters.</p><p></li></ul>\"Confidence\" is the key word to describe members of the genre. On the other hand, for the \"agnostic\" school, this word should be \"cautious\", especially when looking at the macro future.<b>Its believers usually think that the future cannot be predicted; Nor do you have to predict the future; The correct goal should be to do your best to make a good investment on the basis of admitting that you don't have this awareness.</b></p><p>As a member of the \"knowability\" school, you can express your opinion about the future (and maybe someone here takes notes). You may be sought after and seen as the ideal dinner guest … especially when the stock market is rising.</p><p>If the \"agnostic\" genre is added, the results are even more complicated. You will soon get tired of expressing \"agnosticism\" to friends and strangers. It won't be long before even relatives stop asking you what you think about market movements. You will never enjoy the one-thousandth surprise moment when your prediction comes true, nor will you enjoy the joy of publishing your photo in the Wall Street Journal.</p><p>On the other hand, you are also protected from prediction errors and losses caused by investing based on excessive confidence in the future.<b>But when a potential customer asks you about your investment prospects and you have to say \"I don't know\", how do you think it will feel?</b></p><p>For me, the best bottom-line criterion for judging which genre is based on the late Stanford behavioral scientist Amos Tversky:<b>\"It's scary to realize that you may not know something, but even more scary is to realize that, in general, the world is run by people who firmly believe they know exactly what's happening.\"</b></p><p>In the investment management business, it is of course standard practice to put forward macro forecasts, share them upon request, and be entrusted with investing for clients on this basis. It also seems to be common practice for fund managers to believe in forecasting, especially their own. As mentioned above, it seems out of place not to do so. But are their beliefs realistic? I'd love to hear everyone's views.</p><p>Many years ago, a well-respected sell-side economist (an old acquaintance of mine when I was at Citi) called me: \"You changed my life,\" he said. \"I've long stopped making predictions. Instead, I just tell people what happened today and what I think might impact the future. Life is better ever since.\" Can I help you achieve the same state of happiness?</p><p>Author of this article: Howard Marks</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ipkl8u3LTMsZu6vV05TfWg\">橡树资本Oaktree Capital</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec9d546348d262a35388609835ccbfe2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ipkl8u3LTMsZu6vV05TfWg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159026938","content_text":"自1993年2月开始写第一篇备忘录，《预测的价值，雨源自何处》（The Value of Projections, or Where'd All This Rain Come From）开始，我一直在表达我将\"预测\"置之度外。自那之后的多年里，我详细地解释了为何我对预测不感兴趣——以下章节中一些我非常喜欢的引述也呼应了我对预测之不屑一顾——但我从来没有再专门写一篇备忘录来解释过为何作出有益的宏观预测如此之难。因此就有了这篇备忘录。引入深思的事情世界上有两类预言家：一类对未来并无所知，而另一类不知道自己并无所知。——约翰·肯尼斯·加尔布雷思最后润色备忘录《敢于另辟蹊径》（I Beg to Differ）后不久，我与一些经验丰富的投资者以及投资圈外的人士一同出席了一次午餐会。这并非一项社交活动，而是为在场的人提供了就投资环境交流彼此观点的机会。期间，主持人提出了一系列问题：您预期通胀会如何发展？会不会出现经济衰退，如果会，情况有多严重？俄乌冲突将以何种方式结束？2022年和2024年美国大选可能会产生什么影响？对此，我听到了各种各样的观点。长期追踪我备忘录的读者应该可以想象到我当时的想法：\"这个房间里没有人是外交事务或政治方面的专家。在场没有人对这些话题有特别深入的见解，当然也不会比阅读今天早上新闻的普通人知道得更多。\"所传达的思想，即使是针对经济问题，似乎也没有比其他人更具说服力，而且我绝对相信，没有人能够改善投资结果。这就是关键。正是那次午餐会让我开始考虑写另一篇关于宏观展望无益的备忘录。不久之后，我发现一些额外的素材——一本书、一篇来自彭博观点（Bloomberg Opinion）的文章和一篇报纸上的文章——这些素材都支持我的论点（也可能是我的\"证实偏差\"——即人们倾向于接受和相信能够证明自己先前已有观点的信息和论据）。那次午餐会和这些素材共同启发了这份备忘录的主题：预测鲜有益处的诸多原因。为了获得有用的东西——无论是在制造业、学术界，甚至是艺术领域——必须有一个可靠的过程，能够将所需的输入转换为期望的输出。简言之，问题在于，我认为没有一个过程能够始终如一地将大量与经济和金融市场相关的变量（输入）转化为有用的宏观预测（输出）。模型认知最大的敌人并非无知，而是对认知的错觉。——丹尼尔·布尔斯廷大约在我任职于第一花旗银行（First National City Bank）的头十年，有一个在当时很热门但现在已经很久没听到过的词：计量经济学。具体是指在经济数据中寻找关联从而产生有效预测的一种做法。或者简言之，计量经济学研究如何建立经济的数学模型。在上世纪70年代，计量经济学者们炙手可热，但我觉得他们现已风光不再。我认为这意味着他们的模型不起作用。无论模型是复杂精密的还是潦草简单的、基于数学的还是出于直觉的，预测者都别无选择只能根据模型做出判断。模型从定义而言是由假设组成的：\"如果A发生，那么B就会发生。\"换句话说，模型陈述了关系与响应。但要我们愿意采纳模型的输出结果，就必须让我们相信这个模型是可靠的。可当我想到要为经济建模时，我的第一反应是这会多么的复杂。例如，美国大约有3.3亿人口。除去特别年幼的和一些特别年老的，其余的人都是经济的参与者。因此，有数以亿计的消费者，以及数以百万计的工人、生产商和中间商（许多人满足多个分类）。要预测经济的发展路径，就必须预测这些人的行为——就算不预测每位参与者，至少也要预测群体总量。美国经济的真实模拟必须处理数十亿的互动或节点，包括与全球各地的供应商、客户和其他市场参与者的互动。是否有可能做到这一点？例如，是否能预测消费者在下列情况下做出的行为：（一）如果他们获得额外一美元的收入（\"边际消费倾向\"是多少？）；（二）如果能源价格上涨，挤压了家庭预算中的其他类别；（三）如果一种商品的价格相对于其他商品上涨（是否会产生\"替代效应\"？）；以及（四）如果地缘政治舞台被其他大洲的事件搅动？显然，这种复杂程度需要频繁使用经简化的假设。例如，如果可以假设在B并非更好或更便宜（或两者兼而有之）的情况下，消费者不会购买B来代替A，那么建模会更容易。如果假设生产X的成本不低于Y，那么生产者不会将X定价低于Y，这也会有所帮助。但尽管B的价格更高（甚至正因如此），消费者仍被B的品牌效应所吸引，结果会怎样？如果X是由愿意用亏损几年以获取市场份额的企业家生产开发的，结果会如何？模型是否有可能预测消费者愿意多花钱和企业家愿意少赚钱（甚至亏损）的决定？此外，模型必须预测经济中每组参与者在各种环境中的行为。但变幻莫测的因素是多方面的。例如，消费者可能在某一时刻是一种行为方式，而在另一类似时刻则是不同的行为方式。考虑到所涉及的大量变量，两个\"相似\"时刻似乎不可能以完全相同的方式发生，而我们也不太可能看到经济参与者表现出相同的行为。除此之外，参与者的行为将受到他们的心理（或者我应该说他们的情绪？）的影响，而且他们的心理可能会受到定性的、非经济发展的影响。这些如何建模？一个经济模型如何能全面到足以处理以前从未遇到过的情况，或者在现代（即在可比情况下）未曾出现过的情况？这是又一个例证，说明模型无法简单复制像经济这样复杂的事物。当然，其中一个典型例子就是新冠疫情。它导致全球大部分经济体停摆，颠覆了消费者行为，并激发了政府大规模的发钱纾困政策。已有模型的哪个方面能够预测疫情影响？是的，世界曾在1918年经历过一场疫情，但情况截然不同（当时没有iPhone、Zoom通话等等），以至于那个时期的经济事态与2020年几乎没有任何可比性。除了复杂程度和难以捕捉的心理波动和动态过程等因素外，还要考虑到试图对不能预期保持不变的事物进行预测本身就具有局限性。在开始撰写本备忘录后不久，我收到了Morgan Housel一贯精彩的周刊。其中一篇文章描述了很多与我们的经济和投资相关的其他领域的观察结果。以下两个是从统计学领域借用的，我认为它们与经济模型和预测的讨论有关（\"世界运作的小方法 （Little Ways the World Works ）\"，Morgan Housel，Collaborative Fund，2022年7月20日）：平稳性：这是一种假设，基于影响系统的主要因素不会随时间推移而变化，该假设认为历史可以作为未来统计的指导。如果想知道要建造多高的堤坝，就查看过去100年的洪水数据，并假设未来100年也会相同。平稳性是一个奇妙的、基于科学的概念，且在它失效之前一直有效。它是经济和政治中重要事件的主要驱动力。[但在我们的世界中，]\"以前从未发生过的事情一直在发生，\"斯坦福大学教授Scott Sagan说。克伦威尔法则：永远不要说某事不会发生。……即使某件事仅有十亿分之一的可能性成真，而你在一生中会与数十亿件事物互动，因此你几乎肯定会经历一些令人震惊的意外事件，并应该始终对不可思议的事情成为现实的可能性持开放态度。平稳性在物理科学领域可能是合理的假设。例如，因万有引力定律，在既定的大气条件下，物体总是能以相同的加速度下降。结果总是这样，而且将永远这样。但在我们的领域里，很少有过程是平稳的，特别是考虑到心理、情感和人类行为，并且它们会随着时间的推移而变化。以失业率和通胀之间的关系为例。在过去约60年里，经济学家依赖菲利普斯曲线，该曲线认为工资通胀将随着失业率的下降而上升，因为当未就业的工人减少时，员工获得议价能力，并可成功地通过谈判获得更高的工资。几十年来，人们还认为5.5%的失业率表明\"充分就业\"。但失业率在2015年3月降至5.5%以下（并在2019年9月达到3.5%的50年以来低位），但直到2021年通胀（工资或其他方面）都没有显著上升。菲利普斯曲线描述的重要关系应用在了几十年来建立的各种经济模型中，但它在过去十年的大部分时间里似乎并不适用。克伦威尔法则也同样重要。与物理科学不同，在市场和经济领域里，很少有绝对必须发生或绝对不能发生的事情。因此，在《周期》（Mastering the Market Cycle） 一书中，我列出了投资者应该从词汇表中清除的七个术语：\"从不\"、\"总是\"、\"永远\"、\"不能\"、\"不会\"、\"将\" 和 \"必须\"。但如果这些词真的必须被摒弃，那么也必须摒弃能建立可靠地预测宏观未来的模型的想法。换言之，在我们的领域里，几乎没有什么是不可变的。行为的不可预测性是我最喜欢的话题。著名物理学家理查德·费曼 （Richard Feynman） 曾经说过：\"想象一下，如果电子有感觉，物理学将会多难。\"物理规则是可靠的，正是因为电子总是做它们应该做的事情。它们永远不会忘记履行自己的职责。它们从不反抗。它们从不罢工。它们从不创新。它们从不以相反的方式行事。但这些都不适用于经济中的参与者，正是因为不适用才导致参与者的行为是不可预测的。如果参与者的行为是不可预测的，那么如何对经济的运行进行建模?我们在谈论未来，没有任何一种方法可在不需要做出假设的情况下预测未来。有关经济环境假设的小错误和参与者行为的细微变化都可能造成严重问题。正如数学与气象学家爱德华·洛伦茨 （Edward Lorenz） 的名言：\"一只巴西的蝴蝶扇动翅膀就可能在美国德克萨斯州引发龙卷风。\"（历史学家尼尔·弗格森 （Niall Ferguson） 在下文讨论的一篇文章中提到了这一点。）综上所述，我们能否认为经济模型是可靠的？模型可否复制现实？它能否描述数以百万计的参与者行为及他们之间的互动？试图建模的过程是否可靠？这些过程可否简化为数学？数学能否捕捉人及其行为的定性细微差别？模型能否预测消费者偏好的变化、企业行为的变化以及参与者对创新的反应？换言之，我们能否相信模型的输出结果？显然，经济关系并非一成不变，经济也不受示意图（模型试图模拟的示意图）所支配。因此，对我来说，底线是，在不违反假设的情况下，模型的输出结果大部分时间指向正确方向。但它不可能总是准确的，尤其是在拐点等关键时刻……而这正是准确预测最有价值的时候。输入无法忽略的一个事实是，你所有的知识都是关于过去的，你所有的决定都是关乎未来的。——伊恩·威尔逊 （Ian H.Wilson ）（通用电气前高管）在考虑了经济不可思议的复杂性，以及需要做出经简化的假设（这将降低任何经济模型的准确性），现在让我们来考虑一个模型所需的输入——制造预测的原材料。预估的输入是否有效？我们能否对它们有足够深入的了解，从而得出有意义的预测？还是让我们简单地想起关于模型的终极真理：\"输入垃圾，输出的还是垃圾\"？显然，没有任何预测的质量会比它所基于的输入的质量更好。以下是尼尔·弗格森7月17日在彭博观点 （Bloomberg Opinion） 撰写的内容：考虑一下当我们提出\"通胀是否已见顶？\"这个问题时真正想问的。我们在问的不仅仅是94,000种不同商品、制成品和服务的供需情况。我们还在关心美联储设定的未来利率路径，撇开备受吹捧的\"前瞻性指引\"不谈，其去向何方仍远未明确。我们在问的是美元强势还会持续多久，因为它目前正在压低美国进口商品的价格。但还有更多的问题有待解答。与此同时，以上问题也在间接地询问，俄乌冲突还会持续多久，因为自2月份以来，俄乌冲突造成的混乱已经显著加剧了能源和食品价格的通胀。我们是在问沙特阿拉伯等产油国是否会回应西方政府增加原油产量的请求......我们可能还应该问问自己，最新的新冠病毒奥密克戎BA.5将对西方劳动力市场产生什么影响。英国数据表明，BA.5的传染性比其前身BA.2高35%，而BA.2的传染性又比原始奥密克戎高20%以上。如果要将所有这些变量添加到你的模型中，那我祝你好运。事实上，通胀的未来路径，如同俄乌冲突的未来走向和新冠疫情的传播路径一样，都无法确定。我发现弗格森的文章与本备忘录的主题非常相关，因此我在此处附上该文章的链接。该文章提出了很多重要的观点，尽管我在某一方面不敢苟同。弗格森在上文提到，\"事实上，通胀的未来路径，如同俄乌冲突的未来走向和新冠疫情的传播路径一样，都无法确定。\"我认为准确预测通胀比预测其他两个问题\"更不可能\"实现（如果真可以预测的话），因为准确预测通胀需要对这两个事件以及其他一千个影响因素的预判都是正确的。怎么可能有人把所有这些事情都做对呢?我在此粗略地介绍一下《预测的价值》中提及的预测过程：我想，对于大多数基金管理人来说，该过程是这样的：\"我预测经济会做A。如果A发生，利率应该会呈现B。如果利率为B，股市应该呈现C。在此环境下，表现最好的板块应该是D，而股票E应该上涨最多。\"然后据此构建投资组合，以期在这种情况下实现最好的表现。但无论如何，E的可能性有多大？请记住，E以A、B、C和D为条件。在预测领域中，三分之二的正确率将是了不得的成就。但如果五个预测中，每一个都有67%的可能性是正确的，则结果是，所有五个预测都是正确的并且股票将按预期表现的可能性为13%。基于对A、B、C和D的假设来预测事件E，就是我所说的单情景预测。换言之，如果关于A、B、C或D的假设结果证明是错误的，则E的预测结果就不太可能实现。只有所有潜在的预测都是正确的，E才能得到如预测一致的结果，但这是极罕见的。如果不考虑（一）每个要素的其他可能结果，（二）其他场景出现的可能性，（三）让其中一个假设成为现实的前提条件是什么，以及（四）对E的影响是什么，则任何人都无法进行明智的投资。弗格森的文章提出了一个关于经济建模的有趣问题：关于经济参与者身处何种宏观环境，我们应该作出什么假设？这个问题恰好展示了一个死循环：为了预测经济的整体表现，我们需要对消费者行为等方面做出假设。但要预测消费者行为，难道我们不需要对整体经济环境做出假设吗？在我首份关于疫情的备忘录《无人知晓（二）》（Nobody Knows II）（2020年3月）中，我提到在讨论冠状病毒时，哈佛流行病学家马克·利普希奇 （Marc Lipsitch） 曾说过：（一）事实；（二）类比其他病毒所得出的有根据的推论，以及（三）观点或推测。这是我们处理不确定事件时的标准做法。在经济或市场预测中，我们有大量的历史和许多类似的过去事件可以推断（但新冠疫情都没有）。但即使这些东西被一个构造良好的预测模型用作输入，它们仍不太可能预测未来。它们可能是有用的素材，也可能是垃圾。为了说明这一点，人们经常问我过去所经历的哪个周期与当前最相似。我的回答是，当前的发展与过去的一些周期有短暂的相似之处，但没有绝对的相似之处。在每种情况下，差异都是巨大的，并且超过了相似之处。即使我们可以找到一个相同的前一时期，我们应该在多大程度上依赖于这个单一样本？我想答案是不多。投资者依赖历史参考资料（以及他们据此提出的预测），因为他们担心如果没有这些参考资料，他们会盲目行事。但这并不意味着这些资料是可靠的。不可预测的影响预测创造了未来是可知的海市蜃楼。——彼得·伯恩斯坦如果不首先确定我们的世界是有序的还是随机的，我们就无法考虑预测的合理性。简言之，它是完全可预测的、完全不可预测的，还是介于两者之间？对我来说，结论是介于两者之间，但更倾向于无法预测，以至于大多数预测都无济于事。既然我们的世界在某些时候是可以预测的，而在另一些时候是不可预测的，那么如果我们不能区分什么时候是可预测的，什么时候是不可预测的，预测又有什么用呢？我从阅读弗格森的文章中学到了一个新词：\"确定性的 （deterministic）\"。牛津词典 将其定义为\"由先前的事件或自然规律因果决定的\"。当我们按照规则处理事情时，世界就简单多了……就像费曼的电子一样。但很明显，经济和市场不受自然规律支配——这要归功于人类的参与——之前的事件可能是\"铺垫\"或\"倾向于重复\"，但事件很少会以同样的方式发生两次。因此，我认为构成经济和市场运行的过程不是确定性的，这意味着它们是不可预测的。此外，输入显然是不可靠的。很多都是随机的，例如天气、地震、事故和死亡。其他的则涉及政治和地缘政治问题——一些我们已知，一些还没有浮出水面。在彭博观点 （Bloomberg Opinion） 的文章中，弗格森提到了英国作家G.K.切斯特顿 （G.K.Chesterton G.K. Chesterton）。这让我想起了我在《重新再谈风险》（Risk Revisited Again）（2015年6月）中引用的切斯特顿名言：我们如今这世界真正的问题不是这个世界不理性，也并非这是个理性的世界。最常见的问题是：这个世界几近理性，但却不完全是。生活不是一个矛盾，但却是逻辑学家的陷阱。它看起来比实际上要略微精准和有规律；其精准显而易见，但其不精准的一面却隐藏了起来；其野性也在潜伏以待。（粗体为笔者所加）回到第一页所介绍的午餐会，主持人的开场白大致如下：\"近年来，我们经历了新冠疫情、取得惊人成功的美联储救市政策以及俄乌冲突等事件。这是一个非常富有挑战性的环境，因为所有这些都突如其来。\"我想，对他来说，这意味着与会者应该让自己摆脱对2020年-2022年预测不准确的困扰，继续预测未来，并押注于自己的判断。但我的反应完全不同：\"影响当前环境的事件有很多。而没有人能够预测其中任何一件，这一事实难道不足以让在场的人相信他们应该放弃预测吗?\"再举一个例子，让我们回想一下2016年的秋天。有两件事几乎每个人都深信不疑：（一）希拉里·克林顿将当选总统；（二）若出于某种原因唐纳德·特朗普当选，市场将会崩溃。尽管如此，结果是特朗普赢了，市场飙升。过去六年对经济和市场影响深远，我相信，当时任何对2016年大选持传统观点的预测都不会是正确的。这难道还不足以让人们相信：（一）我们不知道未来会发生什么，（二）我们无法了解市场将如何对所发生的事情做出反应？预测能否带来超额？让我们陷入困境的不是无知，而是看似正确的谬误论断。——马克·吐温正如我在最近的备忘录《关于宏观问题的思考》（Thinking About Macro） 中提到的，在1970年代，我们曾经将经济学家描述为\"从不入市的投资总监。\"换言之，经济学家做出众多预测；实际情况会证明他们是对还是错；然后他们继续做新的预测；但他们并不对预测正确的频率进行追踪（或者，他们并没有发布统计数据）。您能否想象不参考业绩记录就聘请一位基金经理（或换做您是一位基金经理，您能否想象在此情境下受到聘任）？但，经济学家和策略师却不会因为不发布统计数据而丢了工作，原因可能是总有客户愿意为他们的预测买单。您是这些预测结果的消费者吗？预测者和经济学家是否是贵司的员工？或者您是否订阅他们的出版物并邀请他们进行简报，就像我以前的雇主一样？如果是这样，您是否知道每个人预测正确的频率？您有没有找到一种方法来严格确定这些预测当中，哪些是可以依赖的，哪些是要忽略的？是否有方法可以量化这些预测对您投资回报的贡献？我问出了这一连串的问题，因为我尚未看到或听说过任何这方面的研究。令人难以想象的是，全球有关宏观预测是否会带来超额收益的信息十分匮乏，尤其是与需要这类信息的人数相比极不相称。尽管缺乏证明其价值的证据，但宏观预测却仍在继续。许多预测者是股票基金管理团队中的一员，或者在为这些团队提供建议和预测。我们可以肯定的一点是，由于主动管理的业绩不佳，主动管理型股票基金几十年来一直在失去市场份额，被指数型基金和其他被动投资型工具所取代，主动管理型基金现在在美国股票共同基金市场中所占份额少于一半。宏观预测在本质上对投资并无帮助，是否是其中的原因？据我所知，有关这个问题，唯一可以找到量化信息的是所谓的宏观对冲基金的表现。对冲基金研究组织 （HFR） 发布了对冲基金加权综合指数以及一些子策略指数。以下是对冲基金加权综合指数、宏观对冲子策略指数和标普500指数的长期表现。*业绩表现截至2022年7月31日。所显示的对冲基金指数为各基金的加权综合指数。上表中，根据HFR的数据，在研究期间，对冲基金的平均表现远低于标准普尔500指数，而宏观对冲子策略基金的平均表现更是差得多（尤其是在2012年至2017年期间）。鉴于投资者继续将大约4.5万亿美元的资金委托给对冲基金管理人，这些基金必须提供回报以外的一些利益，但目前尚不清楚这会是什么。对于宏观对冲基金来说，似乎尤其如此。为了证实我对于预测的看法，接下来我要举一个很少见的有关自我评估的例子：7月24日《纽约时报》\"周日观点\"专栏刊出一篇长达七页的专题文章，题为\"我错了\"。文章中，八位《纽约时报》\"观点\"专栏作者公开了他们曾做过的错误预测以及给出的有失偏颇的建议。这里最相关的是保罗·克鲁格曼 （Paul Krugman） 所写的一篇题为\" 我看错了通胀 （I Was Wrong About Inflation）\"的自白书。我把其中的一些内容摘录并串连起来：2021年初，经济学家们就\"美国救助计划\"的可能后果展开了激烈的辩论……我当时站在[支持不太担忧通胀影响的一边]。当然，事实证明，这是一个非常糟糕的决定…………历史无法让我们预料到会有如此过热的通胀。所以我的模型出了问题……一种可能的原因是历史具有误导性……此外，为适应疫情及其后果而产生的扰动可能仍在发挥很大角色。当然，俄乌冲突以及中国各大城市的疫情防控措施无疑将这种干扰程度推升至一个全新层面……无论如何，整件事都成了一场谦逊的教训。令人难以置信的是，在2008年金融危机之后，标准经济模型一直运作得相当好，我当时认为在2021年运用同样的模型没有问题。现在回想起来，我当时就该意识到在新冠疫情后所呈现的新世界趋势中，这种推断本身就存在风险。（粗体为笔者所加）我很钦佩克鲁格曼能表现出如此惊人的坦率（虽然我不得不说，我并不记得在2009年到2010年间有很多市场预测乐观到足以描绘随后十年实际情况的程度）。克鲁格曼对他的错误的解释就其本身而言是很好的，但我并未看到他提及在未来放弃建模、推断或预测。这种谦逊甚至可能渗透到世界上最大经济预测机构之一的美联储，那里有400多名经济学博士。以下是经济学家加里·席林 （Gary Shilling） 于8月22日在\"彭博观点 （Bloomberg Opinion）\"中所写的：美联储的前瞻性指引成了一场灾难，导致其本身的公信力面临挑战。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 （Jerome Powell） 似乎也持相同看法，外界应该停止揣测美联储在未来不同时间节点有关利率、经济增长和通胀的看法……前瞻性指引的根本问题在于其依赖于数据，而数据本身来自美联储以往那些糟糕的预测记录。美联储一直对2007年-2009年大衰退后的经济复苏过于乐观。2014年9月，政策制定者预测2015年实际GDP增长率为3.40%，但到2015年9月却被迫不断将预期值下调至2.10%。联邦基金利率不是市场决定的利率，而是由美联储设定并管控的，并且无人挑战美联储的权威。此外，联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC） 成员在预测他们自身将会采取何种行动方面也是出了名的糟糕……2015年，他们对2016年联邦基金利率的平均预测为0.90%，2019年为3.30%。实际数字分别为0.38%和2.38%……可以肯定的是，许多正在发生的事件都造成了市场的不确定性，但美联储的前瞻性指引一直备受追捧且具有重要性。回想一下，今年早些时候，美联储还认为疫情和供应链中断后重启经济的摩擦造成的通胀是暂时性的。直到后来美联储才发现情势不妙而调转方向，提高利率，并发出了进一步大幅加息的信号。美联储的错误预测导致错误的前瞻性指引，加剧了金融市场波动。（粗体为笔者所加）关于这个问题我想最后再提一点，即那些通过宏观观点获利而成名（和致富）的人究竟在哪里？我当然不可能认识投资界的每个人，但在我了解或知道的人里面，我认为只有很少几位堪称非常成功的\"宏观投资者\"。当某件事的实例很少时，正如我母亲曾经说过的那样，\"例外恰恰印证了规律\"。这个例子中的规律就是，宏观预测很少能带来出色的业绩表现。对我来说，成功案例的非比寻常，恰好证明了这一说法是普遍真理。从业者的预测需求相比于揭示未来，预测更能揭示预测者。——沃伦·巴菲特有多少人能够作出大多数时候都有价值的宏观预测？我认为并不多。又有多少投资管理人、经济学家和预测者尝试过？少说也数以千计。这就产生了一个有趣的问题：为什么要预测？如果宏观预测不会随着时间的推移助力投资成功，为什么投资管理行业有这么多从业者信奉预测并对预测结果趋之若鹜？我认为其中典型的原因可能是：这是工作的一部分。投资者向来这样做。我认识的每个人都这样做，尤其是我的竞争对手。我一直都在这样做——我现在不能就此罢手。如果我不这样做，我将无法吸引客户。既然投资涉及部署资本以便从未来事件中受益，那么如果没有对这些事件的看法，怎么能指望做好工作？我们需要预测，即使它们并不完美。今年夏天，我儿子安德鲁推荐我读了一本非常有趣的书：《犯了错误（但错不在我）：为什么我们要为愚蠢的信仰、糟糕的决定和伤害行为找借口》（Mistakes Were Made （but Not by Me）: Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts），该书由心理学家卡罗尔·塔维斯 （Carol Tavris） 和艾略特·阿伦森 （Elliot Aronson） 撰写。书的主题是自我辩护。作者解释说，当人们面对新的证据来质疑他们先前所秉持的立场时，就会出现\"认知失调\"，而当这种情况发生时，潜意识会使他们极力去证明和维护先前的立场。以下是一些精选片段：如果您持有一套指导您实践的信念，并且您了解到其中一些是不正确的，您必须要么承认自己错了并改变您的方法，要么拒绝新的证据。大多数人，当直接面对他们做错的证据时，不会改变他们的观点或行动计划，而是更加顽固地予以辩驳。一旦我们认定某个信念，并证明了它的智慧，要想改变我们的想法显然是一项艰苦的工作。将新证据放入现有框架中进行心理论证以便接纳，比改变框架要容易得多。人们在回应使他们的信念受到质疑的证据时通常采用的机制包括这些（转述作者的话）：不愿意听从不和谐的信息；有选择地记住他们生活的一部分，专注于那些支持自己观点的部分；以及在认知偏见下行事，让人们只看到他们想看到的事物，并为他们已经相信的内容寻求某种确认。我相信，这些都是导致人们持续做出预测并依赖预测的因素。那在这种情况下，会有什么样的表现形式？将宏观预测视为投资不可或缺的一部分；热衷于回忆正确的预测，尤其是那些大胆的、非市场共识的预测；高估预测的正确率；遗忘或淡化错误的预测；不去保留有关预测准确性的记录或未能计算平均成功率；重视奖励给准确预测的丰厚回报；强调\"每个人都这样做\"；以及也许最重要的是，将不成功的预测归咎于被随机事件或外生事件所蒙蔽。（但是，正如我之前所说，这就是问题的关键：如果预测如此轻易地变得不准确，为什么要进行预测？）大多数人——即便是心地善良的老实人——都会采取符合自己利益的立场或行动，有时以牺牲他人或客观真理为代价。他们自己无法察觉这种情景，反而认为自身所做皆为正确的事情；他们也寻求了很多正当理由。正如查理·芒格 （Charlie Munger） 经常引用狄摩西尼的名言，\"没有什么比自欺欺人更容易。因为人总是相信自己所希望的。\"我不认为预测者是骗子或江湖术士。他们之中大多数都是聪明的知识分子，他们认为自己正在做有用的事情。但是，自我利益使他们以某种方式行事，而自我辩护使他们在面对相反的证据时坚持己见。正如摩根·豪斯尔 （Morgan Housel） 在最近的一份时事简报中所说：无法预测过去对我们预测未来的意愿并无影响。确定性是如此宝贵，以至于我们永远不会放弃对它的追求，如果人们诚实地面对未来是多么难以预料，那大多数人都无法在清晨从床上爬起来。（摘自\"大信念\"，联合基金（Collaborative Fund），2022年8月24日）几年前我过生日时，橡树的联合创始人理查德·马森 （Richard Masson） 给了我一件符合他风格的有趣礼物。那次的礼物是《纽约时报》的合订本。我一直希望有机会写一写我最喜欢的1929年10月30日那一期的小标题，道琼斯工业指数刚于两天内下跌了近23%。标题是这样写的，\"银行家表示乐观 （Bankers Optimistic）\"（然而之后的三年内，道琼斯指数大约下跌了85%）。大多数银行家和基金经理似乎先天就对未来持乐观态度。除此之外，这符合他们的最佳利益，因为这有助于他们做更多的生意。但他们的乐观态度肯定造就了他们的预测观点和由此产生的行为。能还是不能？\"我从不考虑未来——因为它马上就要来临了。\"——艾尔伯特·爱因斯坦考虑宏观预测的以下方面：所需假设／输入的数量，须纳入的过程／关系的数量，这些过程固有的不可靠性和不稳定性，以及随机性的作用及发生意外的可能性。对我来说，最重要的是，预测不可能经常正确以达到具备价值的程度。我已经提过很多次了，但为了完整起见，我还是要重申我对宏观预测效用（或者更确切地说，徒劳）的看法：大多数预测由对过去表现的推断组成。由于宏观发展通常不会偏离先前的趋势，因此推断通常是成功的。在这个基础上，大多数预测都是正确的。但是，由于推断通常是由证券价格来预期的，那些基于推断预期的人在推断成立时并不会享受到超额利益。偶尔，经济行为确实会在实质上偏离过去的模式。由于这种偏离出乎大多数投资者的意料，它的出现会影响市场，这意味着对偏离的准确预测将带来丰厚的利润。然而，由于经济不会经常偏离过去的表现，因此能对偏离作出准确预测的很少，并且大多数偏离预测事后被证明是错误的。因此，我们有（一）推断预测，其中大部分是正确的，但不会产生超额利益，以及（二）潜在的有利可图的偏差预测，这些预测很少会是正确的，因此通常也不会产生超额利益。经论证：大多数预测不会增加回报。在本备忘录开头提到的午餐会中，人们被问及对美联储政策等方面的预期，以及这对他们的投资立场有何影响。有一个人回答说：\"我认为美联储仍将高度担心通胀，因此将大幅加息，从而导致经济衰退。所以我选择避险。\"另一位说：\"我预计通胀将在第四季度放缓，而美联储将在明年一月份转向鸽派。开始降息并刺激经济发展。我非常看好2023年。\"我们经常听到这样的说法。但必须认识到，这些人正在运用单因素模型：说话者的预测基于单个变量。说到简化假设：这些预测者隐含地认为，除了美联储的政策之外，一切都是不变的。当需要下三维国际象棋时，他们却还在玩平面跳棋。撇开预测美联储行为的不可能性、通胀对这种行为的影响以及市场对通胀的反应，还有其他重要的考虑因素呢？如果有一千件事情在决定经济和市场的未来方向方面发挥了作用，那么其他999件事情是什么？工资谈判、中期选举、俄乌冲突和石油价格的影响又将如何？事实是，人们在任何时候只能在脑海中记住非常有限的事物。很难将大量的因素纳入考虑，就更难理解大量事物将如何相互作用（相关性始终是真正的思考难题）。即使您以某种方式设法得到正确的经济预测，那只是成功的一半。您仍然需要预测经济活动将如何转化为市场结果。这需要一个完全不同的预测，也涉及无数的变量，其中许多与心理因素有关，因此几乎是不可知的。根据学生沃伦·巴菲特回忆，本·格雷厄姆 （Ben Graham） 曾表示：\"从短期看，市场是一台投票机，但从长远来看，它是一台称重机。\"如何预测投资者的短期选择？一些经济预测人士得出的结论是，美联储和财政部在2020年3月宣布的行动将拯救美国经济并助力经济复苏。但我不知道有谁预测到了在复苏开始之前就已掀起炙手可热的牛市。正如我之前所述，2016年巴菲特与我分享了他对宏观预测的看法。\"要使一条信息有效用，它必须满足两个标准：首先必须重要，其次必须可知。\"当然，宏观前景很重要。如今，投资者似乎把握住了每位预测者的言论、宏观事件以及美联储间歇性紧缩行动的信号。与我从事这个行业的早期不同，现今似乎宏观因素就是一切，而企业发展没那么受关注。但我强烈同意巴菲特的观点，即宏观未来是不可知的，或者至少几乎没人能始终如一地比广大投资者了解更多，而这才是试图获得认知优势并作出卓越投资决策的关键。显然，巴菲特的名字在成功投资者名单中名列前茅，他回避宏观预测，比其他人更注重\"微观\"领域：公司、行业和证券，从而获得成功。我于2001年的一篇名为《阿尔法究竟是什么？》（What’s It All About, Alpha?） 的备忘录中，引入了\"可知论\"流派和\"不可知论\"流派的概念，并于2004年，在《我们和他们》（Us and Them） 一文中对此进行了详细阐述。作为当前备忘录的收尾，我将插入我在后者中所撰写的关于这两种流派的一些内容：这些年来，我遇到的大多数投资者都属于\"可知论\"流派。在1968年-1978年期间，我分析股票时如此，甚至在1978年-1995年期间，我转向非主流投资、但仍在以股票为中心的投资管理公司工作时，情况亦是如此。识别\"可知论\"流派的成员很容易：他们认为，了解经济的未来方向、利率、市场和受广泛关注的主流股票，对投资成功至关重要。他们有信心可以实现这点。他们知道自己能做到这点。他们知道很多人也在努力做到这点，但他们认为要么（一）每个人都可以同时成功，要么（二）只有少数人能做到，但他们就是其中之一。他们愿意根据自己对未来的看法进行投资。他们也很乐意与他人分享自己的观点，尽管正确的预测应价值千金，没有人会免费赠送。他们很少回顾过去，认真复盘他们作为预测者的成绩。\"自信\"是形容该流派成员的关键词。另一方面，对于\"不可知论\"流派而言，这个词，尤其是在看待宏观未来时，应是\"谨慎\"。其信奉者通常认为无法预知未来；也不必预知未来；正确的目标应是在承认不具备这种认知的基础上，尽最大努力做好投资。作为\"可知论\"流派的一员，您可以对未来发表意见（也许还有人特此做笔记）。您可能会受人追捧，并被视为理想的晚宴嘉宾……特别是在股市上涨的时候。如果加入\"不可知论\"流派，结果则更加复杂。您很快就会厌倦对朋友和陌生人表达\"不可知论\"。过不了多久，即使是亲戚也不再问您关于市场走势的看法。您永远不会享受到预测成真时那千分之一的惊喜时刻，也享受不到《华尔街日报》刊载您照片的喜悦。另一方面，您也免于面对预测错误，也免于遭受基于对未来过度确信进行投资而导致的损失。但是，当潜在客户询问您投资前景，而您不得不说\"我不知道\"时，您认为这会是什么感觉？对我来说，哪种流派最好的底线评判标准，出自已故的斯坦福大学行为科学家阿莫斯·特沃斯基 （Amos Tversky） 的名言：\"意识到您可能不知道某些事情是可怕的，但更可怕的是意识到，总的来说，世界是由那些坚信自己确切知道所发生的事情的人来管理的。\"在投资管理业务中，提出宏观预测，应要求进行分享，并以此为据受托为客户投资，这当然是标准做法。基金经理相信预测，尤其是自己的预测，似乎也是惯例。如上所述，不这样做显得格格不入。但他们的信念实事求是吗？我很想听听大家的看法。多年前，一位备受尊敬的卖方经济学家（我在花旗任职时的一位旧识）打电话给我：\"您改变了我的人生，\"他说。\"我早已不再做预测了。取而代之的是，我只是告诉人们今天发生了什么，以及我认为可能会对未来产生的影响。生活从此变得更加美好。\"我能帮您达到同样的幸福状态吗？本文作者：霍华德·马克斯","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938790503,"gmtCreate":1662674580802,"gmtModify":1676537112468,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938790503","repostId":"1190604661","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190604661","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662658477,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190604661?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 01:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Queen Elizabeth II dies at 96","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190604661","media":"央视新闻客户端","summary":"见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王当地时间9月8日，英国女王伊丽莎白二世在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡去世，享年96岁。当天稍早，英国白金汉宫发表声明表示，由于医生担心其身体健康情况，英国女王伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。皇室的正式讣告英国王室官方账号称，在伊丽莎白二世去世后，查尔斯王子随即成为英国的新君主。同月，英国白金汉宫宣布，英国女王伊丽莎白二世新冠病毒检测阳性，症状轻微。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1193358135\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Elizabeth II! The longest standby queen in history who witnessed the rise and fall of Britain</b></a></p><p>On September 8th, local time, Queen Elizabeth II died at Balmoral Castle in Scotland at the age of 96.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30b37cc5e316e5c1e37637eca3323cd\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Earlier that day, Buckingham Palace issued a statement saying that Queen Elizabeth II was under medical supervision because doctors were worried about her health. The statement said that the Queen is in good condition and is under medical supervision at Balmoral Castle in Scotland.</p><p>Then, the Queen's closest family rushed to Balmoral Castle. Since the end of last year, the Queen of England has reduced her public appearances due to her health and other conditions. On the 6th, 96-year-old Queen Elizabeth II accepted Johnson's resignation at Balmoral Castle and officially appointed Truss as the new Prime Minister.</p><p>Elizabeth II was born in London on April 21, 1926. Princess Elizabeth became Queen in 1952 at the age of 25 when her father, King George VI, died. From Sir Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, the Queen saw 15 British prime ministers during her reign. In 2015, she became the longest-reigning British monarch in history, breaking a record set by her great-great-grandmother, Queen Victoria.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa6e93ce943bb2e91bf835f5641a16e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>The official obituary of the royal family</span></p><p>According to the official account of the British royal family, after the death of Elizabeth II, Prince Charles immediately became the new monarch of Britain. The King and Queen will remain in Balmoral tonight and return to London tomorrow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd9972679a6bb7b97091f3604492c912\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b82f18dd18fe6f971fe56092e5b087c\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elizabeth II was born on April 21, 1926, ascended the throne in 1952 and became Britain's longest-reigning monarch in September 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a97c7554c4f9811c2d53ec6f6eb176\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen looked slightly haggard and unable to move as she met her outgoing defence minister on February 16</p><p>On September 8th, Buckingham Palace said that the Queen's doctors expressed \"concern\" about the Queen's health and advised the Queen to \"continue to be under medical supervision\".</p><p>The Queen of England has been plagued by health problems since October last year. In February this year, Queen Elizabeth II celebrated her 70th anniversary on the throne.</p><p>In the same month, Buckingham Palace announced that Queen Elizabeth II Novel Coronavirus had tested positive and had mild symptoms.</p><p>Earlier, Crown Prince Charles of England and his wife Camilla Novel Coronavirus tested positive.</p><p>After COVID-19 recovered, the Queen did not return to everyone's vision, and it was difficult to stand and walk.</p><p>On March 14th this year, the Queen was unexpectedly absent at the Commonwealth Memorial Day, and the whole of Britain was surprised.</p><p>The queen who \"wants to attend the anniversary at all costs\" is really in poor health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98fe269af81e6b196ea4ee2db5ea0de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80f44187cbf0d3f78089d883ca06fa2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen has always been tough, and she will never use a wheelchair if she can stand. However, in the last part of her life, the staff installed an elevator and a safety wheelchair in her residence.</p><p>As you still remember, on April 9 last year,<b>Prince Philip, who walked hand in hand with the Queen for 74 years, died,</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d41ea99bf9b4d18885d045d6af44b01\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A minute of silence was observed across the UK, and 30 members of the royal family held a 50-minute funeral for him inside Windsor Castle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817cb15c8788101c3c5394f20be3736a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The queen, dressed in black, sat in the car and wept silently.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8f9794a86bf4e8f4b9f3fff0464544\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>After that, the Queen's health also frequently exposed problems.</b></p><p>One month after Philip's death, the royal family returned to work in an all-round way,</p><p>When the Queen attended the opening ceremony of Parliament, she was suddenly thin. It can be seen that she was in a low mood and lost her former smile and appearance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7bbff6e680751ac6e578566788a1d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In September, the Queen refused emergency knee surgery that made it difficult to walk,</p><p>On October 12, she first appeared on crutches while attending the Royal British Legion Centennial Ceremony,</p><p>The scene caused an uproar and sparked speculation about the Queen's health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1a766c221106dbf3b5e383617baef5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although there are two pet dogs at home, the queen still looks haggard and has lost her spiritual support.</p><p>On October 20th, Buckingham Palace issued a statement,<b>Said that at the advice of doctors, the Queen canceled her visit to Northern Ireland scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.</b></p><p>The Queen will follow the doctor's advice to rest well in the next few days, although she is reluctant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a1d61c0a8142adc1a80738295f5703\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87fc8b57d6574fb9642d049c8554b62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>That night, however, the Queen went straight to the hospital,</p><p>This is the first time she has been hospitalized in the past eight years, and the last time she suffered from stomach problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d382739be0011a9a7385fa46e70fb5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9c8afcd7359483057de627ffc517cbd\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As soon as this breaking news came out, even the British people who gradually deviated from the royal family were anxious.</p><p>\"Is the Queen alright?\"</p><p>According to the report,<b>The Queen's health issues have nothing to do with Covid.</b></p><p>After a string of health accidents, the Queen's doctor reminded her, \"It's time to stop drinking.\"</p><p>The queen likes to drink, drinking martinis every night for decades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3d5ef8a4270bc76657e20ea04eb947\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce473187a5551cdb7b3d4f38aa86420\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although her health went from bad to worse, the Queen's mental condition was still very good at that time,</p><p>In October, she also refused the title of \"Old Man of the Year\" offered by a magazine.</p><p>Because she thinks she's still young.</p><p>According to the British Associated Press, although she was trapped at home, she still insisted on doing some \"easy official business\".</p><p>On November 14th, the pain struck again-</p><p><b>The Queen was absent from the Memorial Day ceremony because of a sprained back.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072c46829b7b8df7af01648534014275\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f46acebbe50e509ea2a532fa12fa52a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"809\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A Buckingham Palace spokesman said that her health deteriorated further and she was unable to attend.</p><p>Pierce Morgan, a famous British host, said, \"The Queen's real health is more serious than Buckingham Palace said.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0966939f0b964f6675f9ad4c4ba5c855\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Queen Elizabeth II is currently the oldest and oldest monarch in the world.</b></p><p><b>It can be described as \"ultra-long standby\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2aa4e15ed67331b08db897080c2e69\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since succeeding to the throne in 1952, she has consumed 13 American presidents. All the way from Truman to Trump. Witnessed the assassination of Kennedy, the Watergate Incident, the death of Princess Diana, and a series of historical events.</p><p>Almost witnessed the development of the whole new China...</p><p><b>It's a walking antique.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67339ced152b73a21c814b5318297538\" tg-width=\"366\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ada706993caad15eb689654f31f230c\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, the current Queen of England, the head of the Commonwealth and the highest leader of Parliament.</p><p>The full name is \"Elizabeth II, Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and other Territories and Dependencies by the grace of God, Head of the Commonwealth and Defender of the State Church (Anglican Church).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e418c94537d04a028f77d55f708b2066\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>She fell in love with her cousin when she was young.</b>At that time, our queen was only 21 years old, innocent, innocent, young and ignorant. So quietly fell in love.</p><p>But strictly speaking, the Queen's marriage is actually a kinship marriage. Because she and her husband, Prince Philip, are actually great-grandchildren of Queen Victoria, they have been called cousins until they got married.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6559dbe9b2b9cee3568816458dd9d7\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In fact, when Philip was not a prince, our Her Lady Queen had already secretly moved his heart to him.</b>At that time, Prince Philip was still \"Captain Philip Mountbatten\".</p><p><b>Yes, he was the nephew of the famous General Mountbatten, Louis Mountbatten.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b1c738ec21b8e63735fdcab8698cca5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Speaking of which, I simply have to talk about the chaotic blood relationship of European royal families.</p><p>Because European countries are geographically very close and have a long history of intermarriage. Therefore, in the end, just caught any of them and it was the same family decades ago. It's hard not to be related.</p><p>Speaking of which, I have to mention the romantic Edward VIII through the ages. He is simply the most famous model in British history of loving beauty but not loving mountains and rivers.</p><p><b>However, if Edward VIII didn't love beauties back then, it might not be Elizabeth II sitting on the throne now.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a96f31829e14a74ebd964f794b69ac5\" tg-width=\"363\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding this strange love, Madonna once directed a film called \"W.E.\". The English title of the movie is the abbreviation of Mrs. Simpson and Prince Edward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585cbc5c8c4663cde43bb833347b76b8\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Edward VIII and Mrs. Simpson, the \"beauty\" who made him give up his country</p><p>It is said that Edward VIII and George VI are the eldest and second sons of George V respectively.</p><p>Edward succeeded to the throne in early 1936. Before he could be crowned, in December 1936, he signed an abdication declaration because he disobeyed the church and cabinet and insisted on marrying the divorced Mrs. Simpson. As Duke of Windsor, he later said on national radio:</p><p><b>I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.</b></p><p><b>After that, Edwards and his wife spent most of the rest of their lives in France, and didn't return to England until their death.</b></p><p>Of course, there are different opinions on the reasons for Edward VIII's abdication. Some people say that it is because he is biased towards the Nazis, so I won't go into details here.</p><p>It is said that after Edward VIII abdicated, his younger brother Albert, George VI, had naturally returned to China to inherit the throne.</p><p>George VI is the prototype of the stuttering king in The King's Speech. He published a national broadcast encouraging people to resist the Germans in World War II.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f14c516e2d7fbcbbc83ee11a0323a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stills of The King's Speech</p><p>George VI's real name is Albert, which is a German name. Later, during World War II, he changed his name to George in order to establish a clear relationship with Germany.</p><p>George VI was named Albert before because Queen Victoria's husband was called Albert. The husband of Queen Victoria's life is Prince Albert of Gotha, Coburg, Saxony, who was born in Germany.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db119832a2011a15ffe0bc8647463645\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>George VI</p><p>Queen Victoria once demanded that among the monarchs after her, someone must have Albert in his name to remember her love for her husband.</p><p>This unwritten rule was waived after Elizabeth II succeeded to the throne. Elizabeth II is the great granddaughter of Queen Victoria,<b>In other words, Elizabeth called Queen Victoria: Grandma Zu Tai.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, Queen Elizabeth II can be regarded as changing her ancestral precepts.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ec51d5d1521a424b7860cfae36101b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II married in 1947 to Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, and began a 74-year journey of showing love.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734640b192a9381a18ada9df6362120f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/931734d7126c991f07d910b9c9bfcd80\" tg-width=\"468\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, in the two photos, their postures and expressions are almost the same, but the shooting time is half a century apart. Well, you also want to show love for half a century?</p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, have four children, three of whom are sons and one is a daughter, namely the eldest son Charles, the second son Andrew, the youngest son Edward and the daughter Anne.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/224ef879b62e5222674bebaac5232a1b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II is a devout Christian who abides by the law, so she refused to recognize Charles's mistress Camilla for many years.</p><p>However, her son doesn't value promises as much as she does. The gossip between her son Prince Charles and daughter-in-law Princess Diana is world-famous.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f8dd6d0d48c4b494558244ea79f0d1\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Princess Diana, the daughter-in-law who gives the royal family a headache</p><p>Prince Andrew, the Queen's favorite son, is by no means a fuel-efficient lamp. After being deeply involved in the sexual assault scandal, he was deprived of his military rank and royal patron status by the Queen.</p><p>However, it is said that the Queen's grandchildren are still low-key, except Prince Harry, the youngest son of Princess Diana, who is riddled with various scandals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef3f7600a8afa7645a9b64e3f207a644\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prince Harry</p><p>The Queen's birthday is on April 21st, but on April 20th, the Queen visited the Royal Mail Office and received a series of stamps.</p><p>Which stage of the Queen's life does the above legend belong to, please correspond to it yourself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff3e3715fff3a16a4104cc760e47ead\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acea7ea1c709f3da485a4a8953078db\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the 13 American presidents consumed by Elizabeth II, they are:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43db9874d9df2a1d1405ef6373fc93a4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>33 Harry S. Truman Harry S. Truman 1945-1953</p><p>34 Dwight D Eisenhower Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-1961</p><p>35 John F Kennedy John F Kennedy 1961-1963</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a384c4865d841bc4e217c64cd1164f6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>36 Lyndon Johnson Lyndon Johnson 1963-1969</p><p>37 Richard Nixon Richard Nixon 1969-1974</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42e0b0d12e101ad1eb5eb5067e8f0ed8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>38 Gerald Ford Gerald Ford 1974-1977</p><p>39 Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter 1977-1981</p><p>40 Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan 1981-1989</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1b642bba6dc8afece372959f65ff40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>41 George H W Bush George Herbert Walker Bush 1989-1993</p><p>42 Bill Clinton Bill Clinton 1993-2001<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5457af4dfb6b92539779f8c74a24c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>43 George W Bush George Walker Bush 2001-2009</p><p>44 Barack Obama Barack Obama 2009-2017</p><p>And the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump Donald Trump 2017-2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb80971ac82c0002bb4886ec201c4d2\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the tradition in British history, as a crowned monarch, the Queen will not abdicate before her death.</p><p>However, there were actually arrangements and rehearsals about her death a long time ago. This plan is code-named<b>\"London Bridge\"</b>。</p><p>The death of the king of England, unlike other countries, must first set a secret code.</p><p>The predecessor King George VI of England died with the code word \"Hyde Park Corner\". Correspondingly, Queen Elizabeth II's code word was \"London Bridge is down\". This code has existed since the queen ascended the throne, just as ancient emperors built mausoleums in advance.</p><p><b>According to this plan, once the Queen dies, the flags of Britain will be flown at half-mast, and the whole country will enter a 12-day mourning day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e68487f4f3e4d0d8303545cc0ee21a8\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Immediately after the report was received by the British Foreign Office, which was responsible for conveying the news to the Commonwealth countries.</p><p>The media working with the royal family will also receive the news at the first time, but not by telephone or text message, but hanging above the studio<b>A blue light</b>。</p><p>This blue lamp was designed during the Cold War. Its original purpose was to report the Soviet Union's nuclear war as soon as possible, and race against time to let people enter the asylum procedure.</p><p>But in peacetime, once the blue light comes on, it doesn't mean anything else but the death of the queen. TV stations should quickly get ready, stop all entertainment programs and play mourning music.</p><p>The black mourning clothes prepared for the reading of the obituary are also ready in the office.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00f9f2c03753eceb5457b6ebbb2c93e\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Theoretically, the British throne can't have a vacuum period, so once the Queen dies, Prince Charles, the \"longest standby\" in history, will automatically become the new British king as the crown prince.</p><p>However, his official succession to the throne still requires a series of official procedures. He will take a public oath of loyalty in Parliament and the Church of England before St James's Palace officially declares him king.</p><p>After Prince Charles became king, the lyrics of Britain's national anthem \"God Save My Queen\" had to be changed accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22da8ed08c9c815af0d2adafb0a0a18\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>British people are already very familiar with the funeral process of the royal family, and even the Queen herself participated in the preview, pointing out the shortcomings.</p><p>However, she herself is not indifferent.</p><p>A few years ago, the queen, who likes keeping corgis very much, announced that she would no longer keep any pets. Foreign media reported that the Queen of England was slowly saying goodbye to her parents, childhood and memories.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c206b0a1f195ce48824124518e3e43fb\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, the most uncomfortable part of this is the Queen's family.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b185e0dd3b0b2fd630e2a2501ddf5104\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her legendary life has come to an end, and right and wrong can only be left to later generations to comment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1568181200495","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Queen Elizabeth II dies at 96</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQueen Elizabeth II dies at 96\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">央视新闻客户端</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-09 01:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1193358135\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Elizabeth II! The longest standby queen in history who witnessed the rise and fall of Britain</b></a></p><p>On September 8th, local time, Queen Elizabeth II died at Balmoral Castle in Scotland at the age of 96.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30b37cc5e316e5c1e37637eca3323cd\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Earlier that day, Buckingham Palace issued a statement saying that Queen Elizabeth II was under medical supervision because doctors were worried about her health. The statement said that the Queen is in good condition and is under medical supervision at Balmoral Castle in Scotland.</p><p>Then, the Queen's closest family rushed to Balmoral Castle. Since the end of last year, the Queen of England has reduced her public appearances due to her health and other conditions. On the 6th, 96-year-old Queen Elizabeth II accepted Johnson's resignation at Balmoral Castle and officially appointed Truss as the new Prime Minister.</p><p>Elizabeth II was born in London on April 21, 1926. Princess Elizabeth became Queen in 1952 at the age of 25 when her father, King George VI, died. From Sir Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, the Queen saw 15 British prime ministers during her reign. In 2015, she became the longest-reigning British monarch in history, breaking a record set by her great-great-grandmother, Queen Victoria.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa6e93ce943bb2e91bf835f5641a16e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>The official obituary of the royal family</span></p><p>According to the official account of the British royal family, after the death of Elizabeth II, Prince Charles immediately became the new monarch of Britain. The King and Queen will remain in Balmoral tonight and return to London tomorrow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd9972679a6bb7b97091f3604492c912\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b82f18dd18fe6f971fe56092e5b087c\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elizabeth II was born on April 21, 1926, ascended the throne in 1952 and became Britain's longest-reigning monarch in September 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a97c7554c4f9811c2d53ec6f6eb176\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen looked slightly haggard and unable to move as she met her outgoing defence minister on February 16</p><p>On September 8th, Buckingham Palace said that the Queen's doctors expressed \"concern\" about the Queen's health and advised the Queen to \"continue to be under medical supervision\".</p><p>The Queen of England has been plagued by health problems since October last year. In February this year, Queen Elizabeth II celebrated her 70th anniversary on the throne.</p><p>In the same month, Buckingham Palace announced that Queen Elizabeth II Novel Coronavirus had tested positive and had mild symptoms.</p><p>Earlier, Crown Prince Charles of England and his wife Camilla Novel Coronavirus tested positive.</p><p>After COVID-19 recovered, the Queen did not return to everyone's vision, and it was difficult to stand and walk.</p><p>On March 14th this year, the Queen was unexpectedly absent at the Commonwealth Memorial Day, and the whole of Britain was surprised.</p><p>The queen who \"wants to attend the anniversary at all costs\" is really in poor health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98fe269af81e6b196ea4ee2db5ea0de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80f44187cbf0d3f78089d883ca06fa2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen has always been tough, and she will never use a wheelchair if she can stand. However, in the last part of her life, the staff installed an elevator and a safety wheelchair in her residence.</p><p>As you still remember, on April 9 last year,<b>Prince Philip, who walked hand in hand with the Queen for 74 years, died,</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d41ea99bf9b4d18885d045d6af44b01\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A minute of silence was observed across the UK, and 30 members of the royal family held a 50-minute funeral for him inside Windsor Castle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817cb15c8788101c3c5394f20be3736a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The queen, dressed in black, sat in the car and wept silently.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8f9794a86bf4e8f4b9f3fff0464544\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>After that, the Queen's health also frequently exposed problems.</b></p><p>One month after Philip's death, the royal family returned to work in an all-round way,</p><p>When the Queen attended the opening ceremony of Parliament, she was suddenly thin. It can be seen that she was in a low mood and lost her former smile and appearance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7bbff6e680751ac6e578566788a1d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In September, the Queen refused emergency knee surgery that made it difficult to walk,</p><p>On October 12, she first appeared on crutches while attending the Royal British Legion Centennial Ceremony,</p><p>The scene caused an uproar and sparked speculation about the Queen's health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1a766c221106dbf3b5e383617baef5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although there are two pet dogs at home, the queen still looks haggard and has lost her spiritual support.</p><p>On October 20th, Buckingham Palace issued a statement,<b>Said that at the advice of doctors, the Queen canceled her visit to Northern Ireland scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.</b></p><p>The Queen will follow the doctor's advice to rest well in the next few days, although she is reluctant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a1d61c0a8142adc1a80738295f5703\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87fc8b57d6574fb9642d049c8554b62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>That night, however, the Queen went straight to the hospital,</p><p>This is the first time she has been hospitalized in the past eight years, and the last time she suffered from stomach problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d382739be0011a9a7385fa46e70fb5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9c8afcd7359483057de627ffc517cbd\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As soon as this breaking news came out, even the British people who gradually deviated from the royal family were anxious.</p><p>\"Is the Queen alright?\"</p><p>According to the report,<b>The Queen's health issues have nothing to do with Covid.</b></p><p>After a string of health accidents, the Queen's doctor reminded her, \"It's time to stop drinking.\"</p><p>The queen likes to drink, drinking martinis every night for decades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3d5ef8a4270bc76657e20ea04eb947\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce473187a5551cdb7b3d4f38aa86420\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although her health went from bad to worse, the Queen's mental condition was still very good at that time,</p><p>In October, she also refused the title of \"Old Man of the Year\" offered by a magazine.</p><p>Because she thinks she's still young.</p><p>According to the British Associated Press, although she was trapped at home, she still insisted on doing some \"easy official business\".</p><p>On November 14th, the pain struck again-</p><p><b>The Queen was absent from the Memorial Day ceremony because of a sprained back.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072c46829b7b8df7af01648534014275\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f46acebbe50e509ea2a532fa12fa52a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"809\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A Buckingham Palace spokesman said that her health deteriorated further and she was unable to attend.</p><p>Pierce Morgan, a famous British host, said, \"The Queen's real health is more serious than Buckingham Palace said.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0966939f0b964f6675f9ad4c4ba5c855\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Queen Elizabeth II is currently the oldest and oldest monarch in the world.</b></p><p><b>It can be described as \"ultra-long standby\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2aa4e15ed67331b08db897080c2e69\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since succeeding to the throne in 1952, she has consumed 13 American presidents. All the way from Truman to Trump. Witnessed the assassination of Kennedy, the Watergate Incident, the death of Princess Diana, and a series of historical events.</p><p>Almost witnessed the development of the whole new China...</p><p><b>It's a walking antique.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67339ced152b73a21c814b5318297538\" tg-width=\"366\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ada706993caad15eb689654f31f230c\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, the current Queen of England, the head of the Commonwealth and the highest leader of Parliament.</p><p>The full name is \"Elizabeth II, Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and other Territories and Dependencies by the grace of God, Head of the Commonwealth and Defender of the State Church (Anglican Church).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e418c94537d04a028f77d55f708b2066\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>She fell in love with her cousin when she was young.</b>At that time, our queen was only 21 years old, innocent, innocent, young and ignorant. So quietly fell in love.</p><p>But strictly speaking, the Queen's marriage is actually a kinship marriage. Because she and her husband, Prince Philip, are actually great-grandchildren of Queen Victoria, they have been called cousins until they got married.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6559dbe9b2b9cee3568816458dd9d7\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In fact, when Philip was not a prince, our Her Lady Queen had already secretly moved his heart to him.</b>At that time, Prince Philip was still \"Captain Philip Mountbatten\".</p><p><b>Yes, he was the nephew of the famous General Mountbatten, Louis Mountbatten.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b1c738ec21b8e63735fdcab8698cca5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Speaking of which, I simply have to talk about the chaotic blood relationship of European royal families.</p><p>Because European countries are geographically very close and have a long history of intermarriage. Therefore, in the end, just caught any of them and it was the same family decades ago. It's hard not to be related.</p><p>Speaking of which, I have to mention the romantic Edward VIII through the ages. He is simply the most famous model in British history of loving beauty but not loving mountains and rivers.</p><p><b>However, if Edward VIII didn't love beauties back then, it might not be Elizabeth II sitting on the throne now.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a96f31829e14a74ebd964f794b69ac5\" tg-width=\"363\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding this strange love, Madonna once directed a film called \"W.E.\". The English title of the movie is the abbreviation of Mrs. Simpson and Prince Edward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585cbc5c8c4663cde43bb833347b76b8\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Edward VIII and Mrs. Simpson, the \"beauty\" who made him give up his country</p><p>It is said that Edward VIII and George VI are the eldest and second sons of George V respectively.</p><p>Edward succeeded to the throne in early 1936. Before he could be crowned, in December 1936, he signed an abdication declaration because he disobeyed the church and cabinet and insisted on marrying the divorced Mrs. Simpson. As Duke of Windsor, he later said on national radio:</p><p><b>I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.</b></p><p><b>After that, Edwards and his wife spent most of the rest of their lives in France, and didn't return to England until their death.</b></p><p>Of course, there are different opinions on the reasons for Edward VIII's abdication. Some people say that it is because he is biased towards the Nazis, so I won't go into details here.</p><p>It is said that after Edward VIII abdicated, his younger brother Albert, George VI, had naturally returned to China to inherit the throne.</p><p>George VI is the prototype of the stuttering king in The King's Speech. He published a national broadcast encouraging people to resist the Germans in World War II.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f14c516e2d7fbcbbc83ee11a0323a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stills of The King's Speech</p><p>George VI's real name is Albert, which is a German name. Later, during World War II, he changed his name to George in order to establish a clear relationship with Germany.</p><p>George VI was named Albert before because Queen Victoria's husband was called Albert. The husband of Queen Victoria's life is Prince Albert of Gotha, Coburg, Saxony, who was born in Germany.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db119832a2011a15ffe0bc8647463645\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>George VI</p><p>Queen Victoria once demanded that among the monarchs after her, someone must have Albert in his name to remember her love for her husband.</p><p>This unwritten rule was waived after Elizabeth II succeeded to the throne. Elizabeth II is the great granddaughter of Queen Victoria,<b>In other words, Elizabeth called Queen Victoria: Grandma Zu Tai.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, Queen Elizabeth II can be regarded as changing her ancestral precepts.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ec51d5d1521a424b7860cfae36101b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II married in 1947 to Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, and began a 74-year journey of showing love.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734640b192a9381a18ada9df6362120f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/931734d7126c991f07d910b9c9bfcd80\" tg-width=\"468\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, in the two photos, their postures and expressions are almost the same, but the shooting time is half a century apart. Well, you also want to show love for half a century?</p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, have four children, three of whom are sons and one is a daughter, namely the eldest son Charles, the second son Andrew, the youngest son Edward and the daughter Anne.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/224ef879b62e5222674bebaac5232a1b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II is a devout Christian who abides by the law, so she refused to recognize Charles's mistress Camilla for many years.</p><p>However, her son doesn't value promises as much as she does. The gossip between her son Prince Charles and daughter-in-law Princess Diana is world-famous.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f8dd6d0d48c4b494558244ea79f0d1\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Princess Diana, the daughter-in-law who gives the royal family a headache</p><p>Prince Andrew, the Queen's favorite son, is by no means a fuel-efficient lamp. After being deeply involved in the sexual assault scandal, he was deprived of his military rank and royal patron status by the Queen.</p><p>However, it is said that the Queen's grandchildren are still low-key, except Prince Harry, the youngest son of Princess Diana, who is riddled with various scandals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef3f7600a8afa7645a9b64e3f207a644\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prince Harry</p><p>The Queen's birthday is on April 21st, but on April 20th, the Queen visited the Royal Mail Office and received a series of stamps.</p><p>Which stage of the Queen's life does the above legend belong to, please correspond to it yourself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff3e3715fff3a16a4104cc760e47ead\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acea7ea1c709f3da485a4a8953078db\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the 13 American presidents consumed by Elizabeth II, they are:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43db9874d9df2a1d1405ef6373fc93a4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>33 Harry S. Truman Harry S. Truman 1945-1953</p><p>34 Dwight D Eisenhower Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-1961</p><p>35 John F Kennedy John F Kennedy 1961-1963</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a384c4865d841bc4e217c64cd1164f6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>36 Lyndon Johnson Lyndon Johnson 1963-1969</p><p>37 Richard Nixon Richard Nixon 1969-1974</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42e0b0d12e101ad1eb5eb5067e8f0ed8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>38 Gerald Ford Gerald Ford 1974-1977</p><p>39 Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter 1977-1981</p><p>40 Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan 1981-1989</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1b642bba6dc8afece372959f65ff40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>41 George H W Bush George Herbert Walker Bush 1989-1993</p><p>42 Bill Clinton Bill Clinton 1993-2001<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5457af4dfb6b92539779f8c74a24c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>43 George W Bush George Walker Bush 2001-2009</p><p>44 Barack Obama Barack Obama 2009-2017</p><p>And the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump Donald Trump 2017-2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb80971ac82c0002bb4886ec201c4d2\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the tradition in British history, as a crowned monarch, the Queen will not abdicate before her death.</p><p>However, there were actually arrangements and rehearsals about her death a long time ago. This plan is code-named<b>\"London Bridge\"</b>。</p><p>The death of the king of England, unlike other countries, must first set a secret code.</p><p>The predecessor King George VI of England died with the code word \"Hyde Park Corner\". Correspondingly, Queen Elizabeth II's code word was \"London Bridge is down\". This code has existed since the queen ascended the throne, just as ancient emperors built mausoleums in advance.</p><p><b>According to this plan, once the Queen dies, the flags of Britain will be flown at half-mast, and the whole country will enter a 12-day mourning day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e68487f4f3e4d0d8303545cc0ee21a8\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Immediately after the report was received by the British Foreign Office, which was responsible for conveying the news to the Commonwealth countries.</p><p>The media working with the royal family will also receive the news at the first time, but not by telephone or text message, but hanging above the studio<b>A blue light</b>。</p><p>This blue lamp was designed during the Cold War. Its original purpose was to report the Soviet Union's nuclear war as soon as possible, and race against time to let people enter the asylum procedure.</p><p>But in peacetime, once the blue light comes on, it doesn't mean anything else but the death of the queen. TV stations should quickly get ready, stop all entertainment programs and play mourning music.</p><p>The black mourning clothes prepared for the reading of the obituary are also ready in the office.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00f9f2c03753eceb5457b6ebbb2c93e\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Theoretically, the British throne can't have a vacuum period, so once the Queen dies, Prince Charles, the \"longest standby\" in history, will automatically become the new British king as the crown prince.</p><p>However, his official succession to the throne still requires a series of official procedures. He will take a public oath of loyalty in Parliament and the Church of England before St James's Palace officially declares him king.</p><p>After Prince Charles became king, the lyrics of Britain's national anthem \"God Save My Queen\" had to be changed accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22da8ed08c9c815af0d2adafb0a0a18\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>British people are already very familiar with the funeral process of the royal family, and even the Queen herself participated in the preview, pointing out the shortcomings.</p><p>However, she herself is not indifferent.</p><p>A few years ago, the queen, who likes keeping corgis very much, announced that she would no longer keep any pets. Foreign media reported that the Queen of England was slowly saying goodbye to her parents, childhood and memories.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c206b0a1f195ce48824124518e3e43fb\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, the most uncomfortable part of this is the Queen's family.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b185e0dd3b0b2fd630e2a2501ddf5104\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her legendary life has come to an end, and right and wrong can only be left to later generations to comment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=15791184010480910310&share_to=copy_url&t=1662658270158&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=BC45B176-442A-40A4-BED7-5731F250FD9F_684351287200\">央视新闻客户端</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2c32b0f1b76a429c3243349d4088def","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=15791184010480910310&share_to=copy_url&t=1662658270158&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=BC45B176-442A-40A4-BED7-5731F250FD9F_684351287200","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190604661","content_text":"》》》伊丽莎白二世！见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王当地时间9月8日，英国女王伊丽莎白二世在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡去世，享年96岁。当天稍早，英国白金汉宫发表声明表示，由于医生担心其身体健康情况，英国女王伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。声明称，目前女王情况尚好，并在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受医疗监护。随后，女王最亲密的家人都赶往巴尔莫勒尔城堡。自去年年底以来，由于身体健康等情况，英国女王已减少在公开场合露面。6日，96岁的女王伊丽莎白二世在巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受约翰逊的辞职并正式任命特拉斯为新任首相。伊丽莎白二世于1926年4月21日出生于伦敦。1952年，伊丽莎白公主在25岁时成为女王，当时她的父亲乔治六世国王去世。从温斯顿·丘吉尔爵士到利兹·特拉斯，女王在位期间见证了15位英国首相。2015年，她成为历史上在位时间最长的英国君主，打破了她的曾曾祖母维多利亚女王创下的纪录。皇室的正式讣告英国王室官方账号称，在伊丽莎白二世去世后，查尔斯王子随即成为英国的新君主。国王和王后今晚将留在巴尔莫勒尔，明天返回伦敦。伊丽莎白二世于1926年4月21日出生，于1952年登基，2015年9月成为英国在位时间最长的君主。2月16日，女王会见即将离任的国防部长时略显憔悴，行动不便9月8日，白金汉宫表示，英国女王的医生对女王健康状况表示“担忧”，并建议女王“继续接受医学监护”。自去年10月以来，英国女王一直受到健康问题困扰。今年2月，伊丽莎白二世女王迎来了在位70周年庆典。同月，英国白金汉宫宣布，英国女王伊丽莎白二世新冠病毒检测阳性，症状轻微。此前，英国查尔斯王储及妻子卡米拉新冠病毒检测结果呈阳性。新冠康复后，女王没有回归众人的视野，站立和走路都很困难。今年3月14日的英联邦纪念日活动，女王意外缺席，全英惊讶不已。那个”不惜一切也要参加纪念日“的女王，身体着实不行了。女王一向以硬朗示人，能站着就绝不坐轮椅，但在她生命的最后一段时间，工作人员还是在她住所安置了电梯，外加一部安全轮椅。大家还记得，去年4月9日，和女王携手走完74年的菲利普亲王去世，全英国默哀一分钟，30名王室成员在温莎城堡内为他举办了50分钟的葬礼。女王一袭黑衣，坐在车内默默垂泪。之后，女王的健康也频频曝出问题。菲利普去世1个月后，王室全面复工，女王在出席国会开幕仪式时，整个人暴瘦，可以看出心情低沉，失去了昔日的笑容和神采。9月份，女王拒绝了紧急的膝盖手术，导致行走困难，10月12日，她在出席皇家英国退伍军人协会百年纪念仪式时，首次拄着拐杖出现，这一幕引发轩然大波，引发对女王健康状况的猜测。虽然家里养了两只宠物狗，女王还是面容憔悴，失去了精神支柱。10月20日，白金汉宫发表声明，表示女王在医生的建议下，取消了原定与周三、周四的北爱尔兰之访。女王未来几天将遵医嘱好好休息，虽然她不太情愿。然而当天晚上，女王直接住进了医院，这是她过去八年来，第一次住院，上一次还是患胃病。这份爆炸性新闻一出，连逐渐背离皇室的英国人都急了，“女王没事吧？”报道透露，女王的健康问题与新冠无关。一连串健康事故发生后，女王的医生提醒她，“该戒酒了。”女王喜欢饮酒，每晚都喝马天尼，数十年如一日。虽然身体每况愈下，那时候女王的精神状况还是很好，10月份，她还拒绝了某杂志要赋予她的“年度最佳老人”称号，因为她认为自己还很年轻。根据《英国报联社》的报道，虽然被困在家，她仍坚持办一些“轻松的公务”。11月14日，病痛再次袭来——女王因背部扭伤，缺席当天的国殇纪念日仪式。白金汉宫发言人说，她的健康状况进一步恶化，无法出席。而英国著名主持人皮尔斯摩根则表示，“女王的真实健康状况，比白金汉宫所说的更严重。”女王伊丽莎白二世是目前全世界在位时间最久、年纪最长的君主。可谓“超长待机”。自1952年继位以来，她一共耗走了13位美国总统。从杜鲁门一路经历到特朗普。见证了肯尼迪遇刺，水门事件，王妃戴安娜之死，等一系列历史大事。几乎见证了整个新中国的发展历程……简直就是个会走路的古董。伊丽莎白二世（Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II），即现任英国女王，英联邦元首、国会最高首领。全称是“承上帝洪恩的大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国及其他领土和属地女王，英联邦元首，国教（圣公会）的捍卫者伊丽莎白二世。她在年轻的时候爱上了自己的表哥。那个时候咱们的女王才21岁，天真纯良年少无知。就这样悄悄地陷入了爱情。但严格说起来，女王大人的婚姻实际上算是亲族联姻。因为她和她的丈夫菲利普亲王其实都是维多利亚女王的玄孙，所以他们在结婚以前一直是以表兄妹相称。而实际上，当年早在菲利普还不是亲王的时候，咱们的女王大人就早已经对他芳心暗动。那时候菲利普亲王还是 “菲利普·蒙巴顿上尉”。没错，他就是著名的蒙巴顿将军路易斯·蒙巴顿的外甥。说到这里，简直不得不说一下欧洲皇室混乱的血缘关系。因为在欧洲各国在地理上非常相近，又有长期通婚的历史。因此到了后来，简直随便抓一个出来就是几十年前同一家。想不沾亲带故都难。说到这里就不得不提一下千古浪漫的爱德华八世，他简直是英国史上最著名的爱美人不爱江山的典范。不过话说如果当年爱德华八世爱的不是美人的话，现在坐在王位上的或许就不会是伊丽莎白二世了。关于这段旷世奇恋，麦当娜曾导过一部电影叫“《倾国之恋》（W.E.）”。 电影的英文名就是辛普森夫人与爱德华王子名字首字母的缩写。爱德华八世和让他放弃了江山的“美人”辛普森夫人话说爱德华八世和乔治六世分别是乔治五世（George V）的长子与次子。爱德华于1936年初继位，还没来得及加冕，就在1936年12月因为违抗教会和内阁，执意要娶离异的辛普森夫人为妻而签署了退位声明，并以温莎公爵的身份在之后的全国广播中说到：“I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.”此后爱德华夫妻在法国度过了他们余生大部分时光，直至死后才回到英国。当然对于爱德华八世退位的原因众说纷纭，有人说因为他偏向纳粹，这里就不一一细说了。话说在爱德华八世退位以后，他的弟弟艾伯特，就是乔治六世，本来顺理成章地回国继承王位。乔治六世就是《国王的演讲》里面带有口吃的国王的原型。他曾发表全国广播鼓励民众在二战中抵抗德军。《国王的演讲》剧照乔治六世本名叫Albert，这是一个德国名字。后来在二战期间为了与德国划清关系改名为George。乔治六世之前之所以取名为 Albert ，是因为维多利亚女王的丈夫叫 Albert。维多利亚女王的一生挚爱的丈夫是萨克森•科堡•哥达的阿尔伯特王子，出生在德国。乔治六世而维多利亚女王曾经要求，在她之后的历代君主中，必须有人的名字中带有 Albert，一次来缅怀她对自己丈夫的爱。这个不成文的规定在伊丽莎白二世继位后被免除。伊丽莎白二世是维多利亚女王的重重孙女，也就是说，伊丽莎白喊维多利亚女王叫：祖太奶奶。所以伊丽莎白二世女王也算得上是改了祖训。伊丽莎白女王二世于1947年结婚，丈夫是爱丁堡公爵菲利普亲王，从此开始了一段长达74年的秀恩爱旅程。女王和菲利普亲王，两张照片中的两人姿态神情几乎一致，而拍摄时间却差距整整半个世纪。恩，你也想秀恩爱半个世纪？女王和爱丁堡公爵菲利普亲王育有四个孩子，其中三个是儿子，一个是女儿，分别是长子查尔斯、次子安德鲁、小儿子爱德华以及女儿安妮。伊丽莎白二世女王是一位恪守教律的虔诚的基督教徒，因此她对于查尔斯的情妇卡米拉多年以来都不肯承认。然而她的儿子却并不像她一样重视诺言，她的儿子查尔斯王子与儿媳妇戴安娜王妃之间的八卦简直举世闻名。让皇室颇为“头疼”的儿媳戴安娜王妃女王最宠爱的儿子安德鲁王子也绝非省油的灯，深陷性侵丑闻之后被女王剥夺了军衔和王室赞助人身份。不过话说女王的孙子们还算得上低调，除了戴安娜王妃的小儿子哈利王子各种绯闻缠身。哈利王子女王的生日是在4月21日，但是在4月20日的时候，女王走访了英国皇家邮政局，收到了一系列邮票。以上传奇属于女王大人一生的哪个阶段，就请大家自行对应吧。关于被伊丽莎白二世耗走的13位美国总统，他们是：33 Harry S. Truman哈里·S·杜鲁门 1945-195334 Dwight D Eisenhower德怀特·戴维·艾森豪威尔 1953-196135 John F Kennedy约翰·肯尼迪 1961-196336 Lyndon Johnson林登·约翰逊 1963-196937 Richard Nixon理查德·尼克松 1969-197438 Gerald Ford杰拉尔德·福特 1974-197739 Jimmy Carter吉米·卡特 1977-198140 Ronald Reagan罗纳德·里根 1981-198941 George H W Bush乔治·赫伯特·沃克·布什 1989-199342 Bill Clinton比尔·克林顿 1993-200143 George W Bush乔治·沃克·布什 2001-200944 Barack Obama贝拉克·奥巴马 2009-2017以及美国第45任总统，Donald Trump唐纳德·特朗普 2017-2021 。根据英国历史上的传统，作为加冕君主，女王不会生前退位。但是，关于她的身后事其实很久以前就有过安排和预演了，这个方案代号为“伦敦桥”（London Bridge）。英国国王的驾崩，与别国不同，首先要定一个暗号。先代英王乔治六世，去世时的暗号就是“海德公园一角（Hyde Park Corner）”，相应的，伊丽莎白二世的暗号则是“London Bridge is down（伦敦大桥垮下来）”，这个暗号从女王登基后就已存在，正如古代帝王提前修建陵墓一般。根据这个计划，女王一旦去世，英国上下将会降半旗致哀，全国进入12天的哀悼日。紧接着收到报告的是英国外交部，他们负责向英联邦国家传达消息。与王室合作的媒体也会在第一时间收到消息，但不是通过电话或者简讯，而是悬于演播厅上方的一盏蓝灯。这顶蓝灯设计于冷战期间，原本的目的是第一时间报道苏联发动核战争，争分夺秒让民众进入避难程序。但是在和平年代，一旦蓝灯亮起，不意味着别的，意味着女王驾崩，电视台要迅速准备好，停止一切娱乐节目，播放哀悼音乐。为宣读讣闻的准备的黑色丧服也随时准备在办公室。理论上来说，英国的王位不能有真空期，所以一旦女王去世，史上“最长待机”的查尔斯王子作为王储将自动成为新一任英国国王。但是，他正式继位还需要一系列官方程序，他将在议会和英格兰教堂当众宣誓忠诚，圣詹姆斯宫才会正式宣布他为国王。查尔斯王储成为国王后，英国的国歌《上帝佑我女王》的歌词也得发生相应的改变。英国人对王室的葬礼流程已经非常熟悉，甚至英女王本人也参加预演，指出不足之处。但是，她本人也并不是毫不在乎。前几年，十分喜欢养柯基的女王宣布不再饲养任何宠物。外媒报道，英国女王正在和自己的父母、童年、回忆慢慢告别。当然，这其中最难受的还是女王的家人。她传奇的一生已经落幕，是是非非，也只能留给后世评说。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059914436,"gmtCreate":1654292356225,"gmtModify":1676535424461,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059914436","repostId":"2240842241","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020838875,"gmtCreate":1652599813697,"gmtModify":1676535127574,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020838875","repostId":"2235453611","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066851062,"gmtCreate":1651887076556,"gmtModify":1676534990997,"author":{"id":"3585215181911888","authorId":"3585215181911888","name":"新手520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585215181911888","authorIdStr":"3585215181911888"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066851062","repostId":"1156185437","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}