MAH18 personal page - To The Moon

MAH18

MAH18

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2025-08-23

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ small win from a red pool.

2022-10-05

[Doubt]

3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4

2022-10-03

[Bless]

What Investors Need to Know About October's Complicated Stock-Market History

2022-09-22

[Doubt]

Sea Limited Stock: Bear vs. Bull

2022-09-21

[Call]

Alibaba: The Charlie Munger And Li Lu Divergence

2022-04-20

too influential

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-11-26

fool me once

3 Cryptos to Buy in a Bear Market

2022-11-26

[Doubt]

Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside

2023-01-23

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ [Doubt]

2022-05-14

[sick]

Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? What Analysts Are Saying About the Future of Terra

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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🤷‍♂️","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/31b2806a125a86260cd9de9bd37ffeee","width":"882","height":"1608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251332649767176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251331639378080,"gmtCreate":1702397654182,"gmtModify":1702397659169,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CFLT\">$Confluent, Inc.(CFLT)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CFLT\">$Confluent, Inc.(CFLT)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Confluent, Inc.(CFLT)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/746cb774b76373e3992706b7d2426f8b","width":"882","height":"1608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251331639378080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":766614555066688,"gmtCreate":1687832826967,"gmtModify":1687832830218,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[NosePick]&nbsp;[NosePick]&nbsp;[NosePick]&nbsp;[NosePick]&nbsp;[NosePick]&nbsp;","listText":"[NosePick]&nbsp;[NosePick]&nbsp;[NosePick]&nbsp;[NosePick]&nbsp;[NosePick]&nbsp;","text":"[NosePick] [NosePick] 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[Sad]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191357106524168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979108365,"gmtCreate":1687666506258,"gmtModify":1687666509751,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"too many Rs","listText":"too many Rs","text":"too many 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Along your journey, uncover hidden rewards and unlock exclusive bonuses that will supercharge your investing game!Not only will you gain valuable knowledge and insights, but you'll also compete with fellow investors for the top spot on our leaderboard!Invite your friends and embark on this epic investing adventure together! Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&Cs apply.👉 Click here to start play","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b6e3d13593eac0f4cc3fdb8b6bf8056","width":"1200","height":"675"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970552986","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191040495698184,"gmtCreate":1687666478938,"gmtModify":1687666482925,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;","listText":"[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;","text":"[Sad] [Sad] [Sad] [Sad] [Sad]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191040495698184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190706630230024,"gmtCreate":1687584756521,"gmtModify":1687584759916,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🎁🎁🎁🎁🎁","listText":"🎁🎁🎁🎁🎁","text":"🎁🎁🎁🎁🎁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190706630230024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190390448804088,"gmtCreate":1687507768870,"gmtModify":1687507773366,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190390448804088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189913285988600,"gmtCreate":1687391274043,"gmtModify":1687391277692,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"weee... 11 R's....[LOL]&nbsp;","listText":"weee... 11 R's....[LOL]&nbsp;","text":"weee... 11 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[Doubt]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189214886715568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188862981603448,"gmtCreate":1687134647318,"gmtModify":1687134650836,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"what to do with 10 R's.","listText":"what to do with 10 R's.","text":"what to do with 10 R's.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188862981603448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188563707707568,"gmtCreate":1687061717573,"gmtModify":1687061721144,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy 9th Anniversary&nbsp;","listText":"Happy 9th Anniversary&nbsp;","text":"Happy 9th Anniversary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188563707707568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188374706229496,"gmtCreate":1687015644219,"gmtModify":1687015648784,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"what to do with 7 R's","listText":"what to do with 7 R's","text":"what to do with 7 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soon..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187951708512384","repostId":"9970552986","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970552986,"gmtCreate":1684749089245,"gmtModify":1686052573124,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Light up your investing with Tiger, play and win prizes worth up to USD 999","htmlText":"Join our exclusive \"Light up Your Investing\" campaign with Tiger!Participate in our game and win fantastic prizes worth up to USD 999*!Unveil the allure of various regions as you progress through exciting game levels.But wait, there's more! Along your journey, uncover hidden rewards and unlock exclusive bonuses that will supercharge your investing game!Not only will you gain valuable knowledge and insights, but you'll also compete with fellow investors for the top spot on our leaderboard!Invite your friends and embark on this epic investing adventure together! Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&amp;Cs apply.👉 <a href=\"https://tigr.link/lightupsg\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to start play</a>","listText":"Join our exclusive \"Light up Your Investing\" campaign with Tiger!Participate in our game and win fantastic prizes worth up to USD 999*!Unveil the allure of various regions as you progress through exciting game levels.But wait, there's more! Along your journey, uncover hidden rewards and unlock exclusive bonuses that will supercharge your investing game!Not only will you gain valuable knowledge and insights, but you'll also compete with fellow investors for the top spot on our leaderboard!Invite your friends and embark on this epic investing adventure together! Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&amp;Cs apply.👉 <a href=\"https://tigr.link/lightupsg\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to start play</a>","text":"Join our exclusive \"Light up Your Investing\" campaign with Tiger!Participate in our game and win fantastic prizes worth up to USD 999*!Unveil the allure of various regions as you progress through exciting game levels.But wait, there's more! Along your journey, uncover hidden rewards and unlock exclusive bonuses that will supercharge your investing game!Not only will you gain valuable knowledge and insights, but you'll also compete with fellow investors for the top spot on our leaderboard!Invite your friends and embark on this epic investing adventure together! Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&Cs apply.👉 Click here to start play","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b6e3d13593eac0f4cc3fdb8b6bf8056","width":"1200","height":"675"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970552986","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187786377535664,"gmtCreate":1686873906059,"gmtModify":1686873910095,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Already more than 11000 lighted","listText":"Already more than 11000 lighted","text":"Already more than 11000 lighted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187786377535664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":470535630197224,"gmtCreate":1755914131246,"gmtModify":1756101032466,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ </a> small win from a red pool.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ </a> small win from a red pool.","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ small win from a red pool.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c8bfa065daada887fb7096a7bb5b30d","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":40,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/470535630197224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915314956,"gmtCreate":1664956345175,"gmtModify":1676537535669,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","listText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","text":"[Doubt]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915314956","repostId":"2272834099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272834099","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664983956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272834099?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272834099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There's no guarantee these Buffett stocks will take off. But the chances appear to be pretty good.","content":"<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","CVX":"雪佛龙","AAPL":"苹果","OXY":"西方石油"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272834099","content_text":"Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects for the stocks he buys for Berkshire Hathaway.That is absolutely the correct mindset to have. However, if I had to pick the stocks in Berkshire's portfolio that would probably deliver strong gains over the near term, the decision wouldn't be that difficult. Here are the three Buffett stocks I think are most likely to soar in Q4.1. ChevronChevron now ranks as the fourth-largest position in Buffett's portfolio. It's one of the few stocks that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has been consistently buying for several consecutive quarters.The oil and gas giant also stands as one of the few big winners for Buffett so far in 2022. Chevron's share price has jumped close to 30% year to date. This gain stemmed in large part from Ukraine war, a move that disrupted the global energy market.I think that Chevron stock will probably move even higher in Q4. Any hopes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end quickly have evaporated. European Union leaders agreed to ban 90% of most Russian oil imports by the end of this year. OPEC+ members are meeting this week to consider cutting oil production.All of this could translate to higher oil prices, which would be bad news for the public but good news for Chevron. With shares trading at around nine times expected earnings, Chevron's valuation isn't so great that the stock wouldn't benefit from further global supply tightening.2. Occidental PetroleumBuffett has become a huge fan of Occidental Petroleum. After months of aggressive buying, Berkshire now owns nearly 21% of the oil and gas company.Occidental has been the best-performing stock in Berkshire's entire portfolio so far this year. Its shares have skyrocketed by more than 120%. At one point, Oxy was up over 150% year to date.Can Occidental keep its momentum going in Q4? I think so. Importantly, the company benefits from the same global dynamics that should help Chevron. The two stocks also share nearly identical forward earnings multiples.But there's another factor that could boost Occidental stock even more this year. In August, Berkshire won regulatory authorization to acquire up to 50% of Occidental. If Buffett keeps buying shares, it's almost a certainty that Occidental stock will keep rising.3. AppleYou could make a good case that Apple ranks as Buffett's favorite stock after Berkshire itself. Apple is by far the biggest holding in Berkshire's portfolio. Buffett has referred to it as one of Berkshire's \"four giants.\" The other three \"giants\" -- the insurance business, BNSF Railway, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy -- are Berkshire subsidiaries.Unlike Chevron and Occidental, Apple has been a loser for Buffett in 2022. Shares of the tech giant have plunged around 20% year to date.Don't think for a second that Apple can't rebound strongly in Q4, though. One key reason behind the stock's recent slide is a Bloomberg report that Apple asked certain suppliers to scale back production of the new iPhone 14. But stories based on anonymous sources don't always pan out.At least one Wall Street analyst, Rosenblatt Securities, thinks that consumers in the U.S. and in other countries could enthusiastically buy Apple's new products. All it would take for Apple stock to soar from current levels is for the company to beat sales expectations during the holiday season.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"OXY":0.9,"CVX":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912354133,"gmtCreate":1664760839922,"gmtModify":1676537503686,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Bless]&nbsp;","listText":"[Bless]&nbsp;","text":"[Bless]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912354133","repostId":"2272691220","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272691220","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664755882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272691220?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 08:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Investors Need to Know About October's Complicated Stock-Market History","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272691220","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"While September lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for stocks, October tends to be a \"bear-market killer,\" associated with historically strong returns, especially in midterm election years.O","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While September lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for stocks, October tends to be a &#34;bear-market killer,&#34; associated with historically strong returns, especially in midterm election years.</p><p>October, however, is also associated with historic market plunges. And skeptics are warning investors that negative economic fundamentals could overwhelm seasonal trends as what&#39;s traditionally the roughest period for equities comes to an end.</p><h2>Rough stretch</h2><p>U.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Friday, posting their worst skid in the first nine months of any year in two decades. The S&amp;P 500  recorded a monthly loss of 9.3%, its worst September performance since 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  fell 8.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite  on Friday pushed its total monthly loss to 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>The indexes had booked modest gains in the first half of the month after investors fully priced in a large interest-rate hike at the FOMC meeting late September as August&#39;s inflation data showed little sign of easing price pressures. However, the central bank&#39;s more-hawkish-than-expected stance caused stocks to give up all those early September gains. The Dow entered its first bear market since March 2020 in the last week of the month, while the benchmark S&amp;P slid to another 2022 low.</p><h2>Bear markets and midterms</h2><p>October&#39;s track record may offer some comfort as it has been a turnaround month, or a &#34;bear killer,&#34; according to the data from Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac.</p><p>&#34;Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&amp;P 500 declined 19.4%),&#34; wrote Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac, in a note on Thursday. &#34;Seven of these years were midterm bottoms.&#34;</p><p>Of course 2022 is also a midterm election year, with congressional elections coming up on Nov. 8.</p><p>According to Hirsch, Octobers in the midterm election years are &#34;downright stellar&#34; and usually where the &#34;sweet spot&#34; of the four-year presidential election cycle begins (see chart below).</p><p>&#34;The fourth quarter of the midterm years combines with the first and second quarters of the pre-election years for the best three consecutive quarter span for the market, averaging 19.3% for the DJIA and 20.0% for the S&amp;P 500 (since 1949), and an amazing 29.3% for NASDAQ (since 1971),&#34; wrote Hirsch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e12b4543bc89bc89d7601f09694c8c4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>&#39;Atypical period&#39;</h2><p>Skeptics aren&#39;t convinced the pattern will hold true this October. Ralph Bassett, head of investments at Abrdn, an asset-management firm based in Scotland, said these dynamics could only play out in &#34;more normalized years.&#34;</p><p>&#34;This is just such an atypical period for so many reasons,&#34; Bassett told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Thursday. &#34;A lot of mutual funds have their fiscal year-end in October, so there tends to be a lot of buying and selling to manage tax losses. That&#39;s kind of something that we&#39;re going through and you have to be very sensitive to how you manage all of that.&#34;</p><p>An old Wall Street adage, &#34;Sell in May and go away,&#34; refers to the market&#39;s historical underperformance during the six-month period from May to October. Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac, which is credited with coining the saying, found investing in stocks from November to April and switching into fixed income the other six months would have &#34;produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.&#34;</p><p>Strategists at Stifel, a wealth-management firm, contend the S&amp;P 500, which has fallen more than 23% from its Jan. 3 record finish, is in a bottoming process. They see positive catalysts between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the start of 2023 as Fed policy plus S&amp;P 500 negative seasonality are headwinds that should subside by then.</p><p>&#34;Monetary policy works with a six-month lag, and between the [Nov. 2] and [Dec. 14] final two Fed meetings of 2022, we do see subtle movement toward a data-dependent Fed pause which would bullishly allow investors to focus on (improving) inflation data rather than policy,&#34; wrote strategists led by Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist, in a recent note. &#34;This could reinforce positive market seasonality, which is historically strong for the S&amp;P 500 from November to April.&#34;</p><h2>October crashes</h2><p>Seasonal trends, however, aren&#39;t written in stone. Dow Jones Market Data found the S&amp;P 500 recorded positive returns between May and October in the past six years (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec700aa8aea3c05bd353dadb6dc79d9f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Anthony Saglimbene, chief markets strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said there are periods in history where October could evoke fear on Wall Street as some large historical market crashes, including those in 1987 and 1929, occurred during the month. The S&amp;P 500 plunged nearly 17% in October 2008 after the implosion of Lehman Brothers, following a 9.1% fall in September.</p><p>&#34;I think that any years where you&#39;ve had a very difficult year for stocks, seasonality should discount it, because there are some other macro forces [that are] pushing on stocks, and you need to see more clarity on those macro forces that are pushing stocks down,&#34; Saglimbene told MarketWatch on Friday. &#34;Frankly, I don&#39;t think we&#39;re going to see a lot of visibility at least over the next few months.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Investors Need to Know About October's Complicated Stock-Market History</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Investors Need to Know About October's Complicated Stock-Market History\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-03 08:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>While September lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for stocks, October tends to be a &#34;bear-market killer,&#34; associated with historically strong returns, especially in midterm election years.</p><p>October, however, is also associated with historic market plunges. And skeptics are warning investors that negative economic fundamentals could overwhelm seasonal trends as what&#39;s traditionally the roughest period for equities comes to an end.</p><h2>Rough stretch</h2><p>U.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Friday, posting their worst skid in the first nine months of any year in two decades. The S&amp;P 500  recorded a monthly loss of 9.3%, its worst September performance since 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  fell 8.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite  on Friday pushed its total monthly loss to 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>The indexes had booked modest gains in the first half of the month after investors fully priced in a large interest-rate hike at the FOMC meeting late September as August&#39;s inflation data showed little sign of easing price pressures. However, the central bank&#39;s more-hawkish-than-expected stance caused stocks to give up all those early September gains. The Dow entered its first bear market since March 2020 in the last week of the month, while the benchmark S&amp;P slid to another 2022 low.</p><h2>Bear markets and midterms</h2><p>October&#39;s track record may offer some comfort as it has been a turnaround month, or a &#34;bear killer,&#34; according to the data from Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac.</p><p>&#34;Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&amp;P 500 declined 19.4%),&#34; wrote Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac, in a note on Thursday. &#34;Seven of these years were midterm bottoms.&#34;</p><p>Of course 2022 is also a midterm election year, with congressional elections coming up on Nov. 8.</p><p>According to Hirsch, Octobers in the midterm election years are &#34;downright stellar&#34; and usually where the &#34;sweet spot&#34; of the four-year presidential election cycle begins (see chart below).</p><p>&#34;The fourth quarter of the midterm years combines with the first and second quarters of the pre-election years for the best three consecutive quarter span for the market, averaging 19.3% for the DJIA and 20.0% for the S&amp;P 500 (since 1949), and an amazing 29.3% for NASDAQ (since 1971),&#34; wrote Hirsch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e12b4543bc89bc89d7601f09694c8c4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>&#39;Atypical period&#39;</h2><p>Skeptics aren&#39;t convinced the pattern will hold true this October. Ralph Bassett, head of investments at Abrdn, an asset-management firm based in Scotland, said these dynamics could only play out in &#34;more normalized years.&#34;</p><p>&#34;This is just such an atypical period for so many reasons,&#34; Bassett told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Thursday. &#34;A lot of mutual funds have their fiscal year-end in October, so there tends to be a lot of buying and selling to manage tax losses. That&#39;s kind of something that we&#39;re going through and you have to be very sensitive to how you manage all of that.&#34;</p><p>An old Wall Street adage, &#34;Sell in May and go away,&#34; refers to the market&#39;s historical underperformance during the six-month period from May to October. Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac, which is credited with coining the saying, found investing in stocks from November to April and switching into fixed income the other six months would have &#34;produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.&#34;</p><p>Strategists at Stifel, a wealth-management firm, contend the S&amp;P 500, which has fallen more than 23% from its Jan. 3 record finish, is in a bottoming process. They see positive catalysts between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the start of 2023 as Fed policy plus S&amp;P 500 negative seasonality are headwinds that should subside by then.</p><p>&#34;Monetary policy works with a six-month lag, and between the [Nov. 2] and [Dec. 14] final two Fed meetings of 2022, we do see subtle movement toward a data-dependent Fed pause which would bullishly allow investors to focus on (improving) inflation data rather than policy,&#34; wrote strategists led by Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist, in a recent note. &#34;This could reinforce positive market seasonality, which is historically strong for the S&amp;P 500 from November to April.&#34;</p><h2>October crashes</h2><p>Seasonal trends, however, aren&#39;t written in stone. Dow Jones Market Data found the S&amp;P 500 recorded positive returns between May and October in the past six years (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec700aa8aea3c05bd353dadb6dc79d9f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Anthony Saglimbene, chief markets strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said there are periods in history where October could evoke fear on Wall Street as some large historical market crashes, including those in 1987 and 1929, occurred during the month. The S&amp;P 500 plunged nearly 17% in October 2008 after the implosion of Lehman Brothers, following a 9.1% fall in September.</p><p>&#34;I think that any years where you&#39;ve had a very difficult year for stocks, seasonality should discount it, because there are some other macro forces [that are] pushing on stocks, and you need to see more clarity on those macro forces that are pushing stocks down,&#34; Saglimbene told MarketWatch on Friday. &#34;Frankly, I don&#39;t think we&#39;re going to see a lot of visibility at least over the next few months.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272691220","content_text":"While September lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for stocks, October tends to be a \"bear-market killer,\" associated with historically strong returns, especially in midterm election years.October, however, is also associated with historic market plunges. And skeptics are warning investors that negative economic fundamentals could overwhelm seasonal trends as what's traditionally the roughest period for equities comes to an end.Rough stretchU.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Friday, posting their worst skid in the first nine months of any year in two decades. The S&P 500  recorded a monthly loss of 9.3%, its worst September performance since 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  fell 8.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite  on Friday pushed its total monthly loss to 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.The indexes had booked modest gains in the first half of the month after investors fully priced in a large interest-rate hike at the FOMC meeting late September as August's inflation data showed little sign of easing price pressures. However, the central bank's more-hawkish-than-expected stance caused stocks to give up all those early September gains. The Dow entered its first bear market since March 2020 in the last week of the month, while the benchmark S&P slid to another 2022 low.Bear markets and midtermsOctober's track record may offer some comfort as it has been a turnaround month, or a \"bear killer,\" according to the data from Stock Trader's Almanac.\"Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%),\" wrote Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, in a note on Thursday. \"Seven of these years were midterm bottoms.\"Of course 2022 is also a midterm election year, with congressional elections coming up on Nov. 8.According to Hirsch, Octobers in the midterm election years are \"downright stellar\" and usually where the \"sweet spot\" of the four-year presidential election cycle begins (see chart below).\"The fourth quarter of the midterm years combines with the first and second quarters of the pre-election years for the best three consecutive quarter span for the market, averaging 19.3% for the DJIA and 20.0% for the S&P 500 (since 1949), and an amazing 29.3% for NASDAQ (since 1971),\" wrote Hirsch.'Atypical period'Skeptics aren't convinced the pattern will hold true this October. Ralph Bassett, head of investments at Abrdn, an asset-management firm based in Scotland, said these dynamics could only play out in \"more normalized years.\"\"This is just such an atypical period for so many reasons,\" Bassett told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Thursday. \"A lot of mutual funds have their fiscal year-end in October, so there tends to be a lot of buying and selling to manage tax losses. That's kind of something that we're going through and you have to be very sensitive to how you manage all of that.\"An old Wall Street adage, \"Sell in May and go away,\" refers to the market's historical underperformance during the six-month period from May to October. Stock Trader's Almanac, which is credited with coining the saying, found investing in stocks from November to April and switching into fixed income the other six months would have \"produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.\"Strategists at Stifel, a wealth-management firm, contend the S&P 500, which has fallen more than 23% from its Jan. 3 record finish, is in a bottoming process. They see positive catalysts between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the start of 2023 as Fed policy plus S&P 500 negative seasonality are headwinds that should subside by then.\"Monetary policy works with a six-month lag, and between the [Nov. 2] and [Dec. 14] final two Fed meetings of 2022, we do see subtle movement toward a data-dependent Fed pause which would bullishly allow investors to focus on (improving) inflation data rather than policy,\" wrote strategists led by Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist, in a recent note. \"This could reinforce positive market seasonality, which is historically strong for the S&P 500 from November to April.\"October crashesSeasonal trends, however, aren't written in stone. Dow Jones Market Data found the S&P 500 recorded positive returns between May and October in the past six years (see chart below).Anthony Saglimbene, chief markets strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said there are periods in history where October could evoke fear on Wall Street as some large historical market crashes, including those in 1987 and 1929, occurred during the month. The S&P 500 plunged nearly 17% in October 2008 after the implosion of Lehman Brothers, following a 9.1% fall in September.\"I think that any years where you've had a very difficult year for stocks, seasonality should discount it, because there are some other macro forces [that are] pushing on stocks, and you need to see more clarity on those macro forces that are pushing stocks down,\" Saglimbene told MarketWatch on Friday. \"Frankly, I don't think we're going to see a lot of visibility at least over the next few months.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".DJI":0.78,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919243646,"gmtCreate":1663811391385,"gmtModify":1676537341172,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","listText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","text":"[Doubt]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919243646","repostId":"1177400795","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177400795","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663808053,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177400795?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 08:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Stock: Bear vs. Bull","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177400795","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Southeast Asian tech giant is still a polarizing investment.","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSSea Limited’s stock has plunged over the past year.The bears believe its e-commerce and gaming businesses will face tough post-pandemic slowdowns as its losses widen.The bulls expect it to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/21/sea-limited-stock-bear-vs-bull/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Stock: Bear vs. Bull</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Stock: Bear vs. Bull\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-22 08:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/21/sea-limited-stock-bear-vs-bull/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSSea Limited’s stock has plunged over the past year.The bears believe its e-commerce and gaming businesses will face tough post-pandemic slowdowns as its losses widen.The bulls expect it to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/21/sea-limited-stock-bear-vs-bull/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/21/sea-limited-stock-bear-vs-bull/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177400795","content_text":"KEY POINTSSea Limited’s stock has plunged over the past year.The bears believe its e-commerce and gaming businesses will face tough post-pandemic slowdowns as its losses widen.The bulls expect it to overcome those near-term challenges with more disciplined spending and the expansion of its fintech ecosystem.Sea Limited's stock price has declined more than 80% since it closed at an all-time high of $366.99 last October. The market's enthusiasm for the Southeast Asian e-commerce and gaming giant fizzled out as its growth decelerated in a post-pandemic market and its losses widened.But even after that steep pullback, Sea's stock has still quadrupled since its IPO nearly five years ago. Let's review the bear and bull cases for Sea to see if it can stabilize and continue growing over the next few years.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Sea's delicate balancing actSea generated 59% of its revenue last quarter from its e-commerce division. This segment houses Shopee, the leading online marketplace in Southeast Asia and Taiwan. Shopee conquered both markets by undercutting its competitors with loss-leading promotions and subsidies.Another 31% of Sea's quarterly revenue came from its gaming unit Garena. Garena generates most of its revenue from a single hit game, Free Fire, which was launched in 2017. Free Fire initially generated a stream of higher-margin revenue for Garena that partly offset Shopee's losses.The remaining 10% of Sea's revenue came from its nascent fintech business, which includes its SeaMoney payments platform and other financial services. Like Shopee, this growing segment remains deeply unprofitable.Simply put, Sea has been balancing several unprofitable businesses on top of a single mobile game. Management likely believed it could maintain that balancing act for at least a few more years as economies of scale kicked in at Shopee and Garena diversified its portfolio with new games. It also expected that shaky scaffolding to support Shopee's expansion into other crowded e-commerce markets like India and Latin America.What the bears will tell you about that planThe bears believe that, like many e-commerce and gaming companies, Shopee and Garena will both face tough slowdowns in a post-lockdown world.Sea's e-commerce and other services (including fintech) revenue soared 157% to $4.6 billion in 2021, then grew another 84% year over year to $3.3 billion in the first half of 2022. But within that total, Shopee's adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss nearly doubled to $2.6 billion in 2021, then widened year over year from $993 million to $1.4 billion in the first half of 2022.As Shopee's growth cooled off and its losses widened, Free Fire lost its momentum. Garena's bookings rose 44% to $4.6 billion in 2021 but fell 34% year over year to $1.5 billion in the first half of 2022. That slowdown was exacerbated by an abrupt ban in India, one of its top markets, earlier this year. As that profit engine stalls out, Sea's losses will widen further.The bears will claim that Sea's business is collapsing like a house of cards. Analysts expect its revenue to rise just 25% to $12.4 billion this year as its adjusted EBITDA loss widens to $2 billion. That slowing growth and red ink will make Sea a tough stock to own as interest rates continue to rise.What the bulls will tell you about that planThe bulls will acknowledge that Sea faces a lot of near-term challenges, but they believe it can overcome those hurdles with three main strategies.First and foremost, Sea has been reining in Shopee's expenses by shutting down its operations in India, reducing its presence in Latin America -- which is still dominated by MercadoLibre -- and downsizing its core Southeast Asian business with layoffs in Singapore and Indonesia. Those efforts could gradually right-size its business, narrow its losses, and free up more resources for expanding SeaMoney across Southeast Asia.As for Free Fire, it's still the highest-grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Garena believes it can extend the aging game's lifespan with fresh content, esports competitions, and an upgraded version called Free Fire MAX. All those strategies could stabilize its growth in a post-pandemic market and buy it more time to develop fresh games.Lastly, Sea can afford to operate at a loss for the foreseeable future. It raised more than $6 billion last year in a big stock and convertible bond sale, and it ended last quarter with $6.5 billion in cash and equivalents.Analysts still expect Sea's revenue to grow by at least 20% annually over the next few years. That's an impressive growth rate for a stock that trades at less than three times this year's sales. MercadoLibre -- which is growing slightly faster than Sea -- trades at four times this year's sales.Which thesis makes more sense?I personally believe the bearish thesis still makes more sense. Shopee needs to prove that it can keep growing even as it reins in its discounts, while Garena desperately needsFree Fireto remain popular as the gaming sector cools off. If either of those wobbly strategies fails, it will face an even more painful landing. Therefore, investors should stick with better-run companies --like MercadoLibre or Pinduoduo -- if they're looking for an overseas e-commerce play in this tough market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919327425,"gmtCreate":1663735684868,"gmtModify":1676537326377,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Call]&nbsp;","listText":"[Call]&nbsp;","text":"[Call]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919327425","repostId":"2268917780","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268917780","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663732800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268917780?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-21 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Charlie Munger And Li Lu Divergence","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268917780","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryGreat minds think alike. But what is even more interesting is when they do not.Two of the mos","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Great minds think alike. But what is even more interesting is when they do not.</li><li>Two of the most successful investors of our time, Charlie Munger and Li Lu, diverge starkly on Alibaba.</li><li>A comparison of their views and actions best illustrates the opportunities and risks associated with the investment.</li><li>Risks commonly mentioned (VIE, delisting, etc.) are all symptoms to me, while Li Lu’s Civilization 2.5 theory offers a more fundamental explanation of the underlying cause.</li><li>Both bears and bulls can benefit from them and make more informed decisions.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0942ec404ebc02752e62408a90fefc89\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>JuSun</span></p><h2>The investment thesis</h2><p>Charlie Munger needs no introduction, but some readers may need a bit more information on Li Lu. They have been close friends for almost 2 decades. Charlie Munger described Li Lu as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” And to Li Lu, Munger has been a &#34;mentor and good friend&#34; (in Li Lu&#39;s own words). The following brief bio taken from Wikipedia provides a bit more info on Li Lu (slightly edited by me):</p><blockquote>Li Lu (born April 6, 1966) is a Chinese-born American value investor, businessman, and philanthropist. In 1997, he founded Himalaya Capital Management, known for its disciplined and value-oriented approach to investing. Li met Charlie Munger on Thanksgiving 2003 and they have been friends since. With Munger&#39;s help, Li transformed his hedge fund into a long-only investment vehicle which is currently focused on global investment opportunities. Munger has stated that Li Lu is the only outside manager he’s ever invested with and he’s described him as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” Li Lu has been known as the man who introduced the Chinese battery and electric car maker BYD Company to Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett.</blockquote><p>It is interesting to observe that these two investors, who share both close friendship and also investing principles, diverge starkly on Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF). Munger has a large position in BABA, but Li Lu does not. And this leads us to the main topic of today. You will see a comparison of their views and actions best illustrates the opportunities and risks associated with the BABA investment. On the one side, the current BABA situation presents an opportunity to buy a good business on the operation table, a hallmark investment strategy from Munger. On the other hand, this article will also dive into the view of Li Lu, especially his view on the civilization 2.5 status in China, as elaborated immediately below.</p><h2>Li Lu, BABA, and Civilization 2.5</h2><p>Li Lu’s current holdings in his Himalaya Capital Management are shown in the chart below. As mentioned above, Munger described him as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” But from his holdings, he is more Buffett than Buffett himself in terms of concentration. His portfolio consists of a total of 6 positions only and the largest position - Micron (MU) - represents almost 34% of the total portfolio size.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0cfbdc8a33a6b476b854ac581dd6f60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: dataroma.com</span></p><p>You can also see that half of his picks overlap with Munger and Warren Buffett. All three of them like Bank of America (BAC), Apple (AAPL), and of course Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B).</p><p>However, BABA is where he and Munger diverge. As to be detailed in the next Section, Munger holds a sizeable BABA position, but Li Lu does not. So naturally, it triggers the question: Why? Seeking Alpha authors have detailed many risks such as VIE, delisting, et al. To me, these are symptoms. In my view, Li Lu’s following Civilization 2.5 theory offers a more fundamental explanation of the underlying cause. The theory was presented in a lecture he gave in 2015, and I think it is worth quoting in full (the emphases were added by me). And readers are highly encouraged to read the transcript in its entirety:</p><blockquote>I believe China is at interim stage between Civilization 2.0 and Civilization 3.0.<i>Let’s call it Civilization 2.5. China has come a long way but still has a long road ahead.</i>Therefore, <i>I think there is a high probability that China will continue on the main track of Civilization 3.0, as the cost of deviation is very high.</i>If you have a good understanding of China’s culture, people and history, you will agree that China will forge forward. This is particularly the case now that you have a better understanding of the essence of modern civilization. There is almost no chance of China leaving the common market, and the probability of China changing its market rules is also very small. Thus, it is highly probable that, in the next 2 to 3 decades, China will remain in the global market system, and adhere to free market principles, in addition to promoting science &amp; technology development.</blockquote><p>It will take time to go from Civilization 2.5 to 3.0. And surprises and setbacks like VIE and delisting are likely (plus a bunch more that we cannot even imagine today). So, given the timeframe and uncertainties, it is an understandable decision that some investors, Li Lu himself included, decided to stay on the sideline.</p><p>While Munger, apparently focused more on the opportunity side of the coin given that China will have no choice but to keep upgrading to 3.0 because “the cost of deviation is very high.” And we will elaborate on Munger&#39;s thinking and actions immediately below.</p><h2>Munger and BABA</h2><p>The following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancellation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3, and then again in 2021 Q4.</p><p>There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. In the near term, the market reacted too quickly to a series of short-term events based on perception (based on the information available at that time). And there is no lack of major events in the past 1 or 2 years as summarized in the chart (including a war, specifically the Russian/Ukraine war). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth.</p><p>In the longer term, as just mentioned, not only China will continue to upgrade to Civilization 3.0, but also other countries in the Asian Pacific region. And such an upgrade will present spectacular growth opportunities, and BABA is well-positioned to benefit from such an upgrade, as to be discussed next.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f64d51b9956d82d5a712c375aa004d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Yahoo data</span></p><h2>The upgrade to civilization 3.0 and BABA</h2><p>It is an unstopped trend that our world is moving toward e-commerce, and the epicenter of the remaining movement will be China and the Asian-Pacific region. Even though many of us are already impressed by the success of e-commerce giants like BABA and Amazon (AMZN), the movement toward e-commerce has just actually gotten started and the bulk of the growth is yet to come. The global e-commerce market size was valued at USD 9.09 trillion in 2019 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (&#34;CAGR&#34;) of 14.7% from 2020 to 2027. The secular support is even stronger for BABA as the Asia Pacific region is already dominating the market for e-commerce with a share of 55.3% in 2019. Furthermore, this region is expected to witness the fastest growth from 2020 to 2027 as seen below. Even by as early as 2023 – in about 2 years that is - retail e-commerce sales in Asia-Pacific are projected to be greater than the rest of the world combined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1c49046f66ec88ec7e79914feb0658\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>And BABA stands best poised to benefit from this upgrade, especially from the Asian-Pacific momentum. As argued in my earlier article:</p><blockquote><i>Capitalizing on the continued e-commerce growth requires a combination of scale and reach, government support, and technology. And also, finally, geographical proximity and cultural compatibility certainly help. And BABA has all these stars aligned for its further expansion – especially in the Asian-Pacific region. The China government might be tightening its regulations on its domestic market, but it certainly encourages the overseas expansion of its tech giants like BABA. And BABA has already accomplished a substantial lead in capturing overseas markets, with its close neighbors such as Indonesia and Vietnam posting revenue growth of over 100% YoY recently.</i></blockquote><p>Risks and final thoughts</p><p>To recap, the current BABA situation is a textbook example of high-risk and high-return investment opportunities. There are plenty of risks in the near term and also in the long term. There has been no lack of major events in the past 1- or 2-years surrounding BABA (Ant IPO, fine, VEI, delisting, et al). In the near term, the China-U.S. trade tension and global geopolitical frictions will keep the stock prices in a highly volatile state. And I am sure there be more hiccups and surprises that investors have not thought about yet showing up in the near future.</p><p>In the long term, China is going through an upgrade from civilization 2.5 to 3.0. I agree with Li Lu’s view that China will have no choice but to keep upgrading to 3.0 because “the cost of deviation is very high.” But at the same time, the path of the upgrade will be long and full of setbacks. Independent thinkers like Munger and Li, despite their opposite actions, are essentially betting on the two sides of the same coin.</p><p>I am siding with Munger there and betting on the opportunity side. All the risks and opportunities mentioned above should apply equally to major China tech firms. However, I think the market now overly exaggerates the risk side for BABA and underestimates the opportunity side, creating an asymmetric opportunity. As you can see from the following chart, both the valuation of BABA and JD.com (JD) has been compressed substantially in the past two years. You can see that by the downward trend of the three-year medium of their price to CFO multiple. Despite the common risks/opportunities and also comparable (or even superior profitability as argued in our recent article), BABA was so much more compressed than JD. Its current P/CFO stands at only 10.55x, about 25% below JD’s 13,.98x, and a whopping 43% below its 3-year median of 18.44x.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c588d4b31a546d6b45775d98e8bd545b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>This article was written by</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Charlie Munger And Li Lu Divergence</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Charlie Munger And Li Lu Divergence\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-21 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541883-alibaba-the-charlie-munger-and-li-lu-divergence><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryGreat minds think alike. But what is even more interesting is when they do not.Two of the most successful investors of our time, Charlie Munger and Li Lu, diverge starkly on Alibaba.A ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541883-alibaba-the-charlie-munger-and-li-lu-divergence\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541883-alibaba-the-charlie-munger-and-li-lu-divergence","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268917780","content_text":"SummaryGreat minds think alike. But what is even more interesting is when they do not.Two of the most successful investors of our time, Charlie Munger and Li Lu, diverge starkly on Alibaba.A comparison of their views and actions best illustrates the opportunities and risks associated with the investment.Risks commonly mentioned (VIE, delisting, etc.) are all symptoms to me, while Li Lu’s Civilization 2.5 theory offers a more fundamental explanation of the underlying cause.Both bears and bulls can benefit from them and make more informed decisions.JuSunThe investment thesisCharlie Munger needs no introduction, but some readers may need a bit more information on Li Lu. They have been close friends for almost 2 decades. Charlie Munger described Li Lu as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” And to Li Lu, Munger has been a \"mentor and good friend\" (in Li Lu's own words). The following brief bio taken from Wikipedia provides a bit more info on Li Lu (slightly edited by me):Li Lu (born April 6, 1966) is a Chinese-born American value investor, businessman, and philanthropist. In 1997, he founded Himalaya Capital Management, known for its disciplined and value-oriented approach to investing. Li met Charlie Munger on Thanksgiving 2003 and they have been friends since. With Munger's help, Li transformed his hedge fund into a long-only investment vehicle which is currently focused on global investment opportunities. Munger has stated that Li Lu is the only outside manager he’s ever invested with and he’s described him as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” Li Lu has been known as the man who introduced the Chinese battery and electric car maker BYD Company to Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett.It is interesting to observe that these two investors, who share both close friendship and also investing principles, diverge starkly on Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF). Munger has a large position in BABA, but Li Lu does not. And this leads us to the main topic of today. You will see a comparison of their views and actions best illustrates the opportunities and risks associated with the BABA investment. On the one side, the current BABA situation presents an opportunity to buy a good business on the operation table, a hallmark investment strategy from Munger. On the other hand, this article will also dive into the view of Li Lu, especially his view on the civilization 2.5 status in China, as elaborated immediately below.Li Lu, BABA, and Civilization 2.5Li Lu’s current holdings in his Himalaya Capital Management are shown in the chart below. As mentioned above, Munger described him as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” But from his holdings, he is more Buffett than Buffett himself in terms of concentration. His portfolio consists of a total of 6 positions only and the largest position - Micron (MU) - represents almost 34% of the total portfolio size.Source: dataroma.comYou can also see that half of his picks overlap with Munger and Warren Buffett. All three of them like Bank of America (BAC), Apple (AAPL), and of course Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B).However, BABA is where he and Munger diverge. As to be detailed in the next Section, Munger holds a sizeable BABA position, but Li Lu does not. So naturally, it triggers the question: Why? Seeking Alpha authors have detailed many risks such as VIE, delisting, et al. To me, these are symptoms. In my view, Li Lu’s following Civilization 2.5 theory offers a more fundamental explanation of the underlying cause. The theory was presented in a lecture he gave in 2015, and I think it is worth quoting in full (the emphases were added by me). And readers are highly encouraged to read the transcript in its entirety:I believe China is at interim stage between Civilization 2.0 and Civilization 3.0.Let’s call it Civilization 2.5. China has come a long way but still has a long road ahead.Therefore, I think there is a high probability that China will continue on the main track of Civilization 3.0, as the cost of deviation is very high.If you have a good understanding of China’s culture, people and history, you will agree that China will forge forward. This is particularly the case now that you have a better understanding of the essence of modern civilization. There is almost no chance of China leaving the common market, and the probability of China changing its market rules is also very small. Thus, it is highly probable that, in the next 2 to 3 decades, China will remain in the global market system, and adhere to free market principles, in addition to promoting science & technology development.It will take time to go from Civilization 2.5 to 3.0. And surprises and setbacks like VIE and delisting are likely (plus a bunch more that we cannot even imagine today). So, given the timeframe and uncertainties, it is an understandable decision that some investors, Li Lu himself included, decided to stay on the sideline.While Munger, apparently focused more on the opportunity side of the coin given that China will have no choice but to keep upgrading to 3.0 because “the cost of deviation is very high.” And we will elaborate on Munger's thinking and actions immediately below.Munger and BABAThe following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancellation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3, and then again in 2021 Q4.There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. In the near term, the market reacted too quickly to a series of short-term events based on perception (based on the information available at that time). And there is no lack of major events in the past 1 or 2 years as summarized in the chart (including a war, specifically the Russian/Ukraine war). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth.In the longer term, as just mentioned, not only China will continue to upgrade to Civilization 3.0, but also other countries in the Asian Pacific region. And such an upgrade will present spectacular growth opportunities, and BABA is well-positioned to benefit from such an upgrade, as to be discussed next.Source: Author based on Yahoo dataThe upgrade to civilization 3.0 and BABAIt is an unstopped trend that our world is moving toward e-commerce, and the epicenter of the remaining movement will be China and the Asian-Pacific region. Even though many of us are already impressed by the success of e-commerce giants like BABA and Amazon (AMZN), the movement toward e-commerce has just actually gotten started and the bulk of the growth is yet to come. The global e-commerce market size was valued at USD 9.09 trillion in 2019 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (\"CAGR\") of 14.7% from 2020 to 2027. The secular support is even stronger for BABA as the Asia Pacific region is already dominating the market for e-commerce with a share of 55.3% in 2019. Furthermore, this region is expected to witness the fastest growth from 2020 to 2027 as seen below. Even by as early as 2023 – in about 2 years that is - retail e-commerce sales in Asia-Pacific are projected to be greater than the rest of the world combined.And BABA stands best poised to benefit from this upgrade, especially from the Asian-Pacific momentum. As argued in my earlier article:Capitalizing on the continued e-commerce growth requires a combination of scale and reach, government support, and technology. And also, finally, geographical proximity and cultural compatibility certainly help. And BABA has all these stars aligned for its further expansion – especially in the Asian-Pacific region. The China government might be tightening its regulations on its domestic market, but it certainly encourages the overseas expansion of its tech giants like BABA. And BABA has already accomplished a substantial lead in capturing overseas markets, with its close neighbors such as Indonesia and Vietnam posting revenue growth of over 100% YoY recently.Risks and final thoughtsTo recap, the current BABA situation is a textbook example of high-risk and high-return investment opportunities. There are plenty of risks in the near term and also in the long term. There has been no lack of major events in the past 1- or 2-years surrounding BABA (Ant IPO, fine, VEI, delisting, et al). In the near term, the China-U.S. trade tension and global geopolitical frictions will keep the stock prices in a highly volatile state. And I am sure there be more hiccups and surprises that investors have not thought about yet showing up in the near future.In the long term, China is going through an upgrade from civilization 2.5 to 3.0. I agree with Li Lu’s view that China will have no choice but to keep upgrading to 3.0 because “the cost of deviation is very high.” But at the same time, the path of the upgrade will be long and full of setbacks. Independent thinkers like Munger and Li, despite their opposite actions, are essentially betting on the two sides of the same coin.I am siding with Munger there and betting on the opportunity side. All the risks and opportunities mentioned above should apply equally to major China tech firms. However, I think the market now overly exaggerates the risk side for BABA and underestimates the opportunity side, creating an asymmetric opportunity. As you can see from the following chart, both the valuation of BABA and JD.com (JD) has been compressed substantially in the past two years. You can see that by the downward trend of the three-year medium of their price to CFO multiple. Despite the common risks/opportunities and also comparable (or even superior profitability as argued in our recent article), BABA was so much more compressed than JD. Its current P/CFO stands at only 10.55x, about 25% below JD’s 13,.98x, and a whopping 43% below its 3-year median of 18.44x.This article was written by","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086511282,"gmtCreate":1650469305416,"gmtModify":1676534731470,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"too influential","listText":"too influential","text":"too influential","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086511282","repostId":"1105569285","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966152771,"gmtCreate":1669451760393,"gmtModify":1676538198701,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fool me once","listText":"fool me once","text":"fool me once","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966152771","repostId":"2286839697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2286839697","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669424518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286839697?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-26 09:01","market":"other","language":"en","title":"3 Cryptos to Buy in a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286839697","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The crypto winter just got a whole lot colder, but these top cryptos could be heating up.","content":"<div>\n<p>The implosion of FTX, a previously trusted exchange that had a high profile with even casual investors, thanks to its extensive marketing, gave a black eye to a space that has already taken its lumps ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/25/3-cryptos-to-buy-in-a-bear-market/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Cryptos to Buy in a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Cryptos to Buy in a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-26 09:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/25/3-cryptos-to-buy-in-a-bear-market/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The implosion of FTX, a previously trusted exchange that had a high profile with even casual investors, thanks to its extensive marketing, gave a black eye to a space that has already taken its lumps ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/25/3-cryptos-to-buy-in-a-bear-market/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/25/3-cryptos-to-buy-in-a-bear-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286839697","content_text":"The implosion of FTX, a previously trusted exchange that had a high profile with even casual investors, thanks to its extensive marketing, gave a black eye to a space that has already taken its lumps this year.However, while many investors have sold their cryptocurrencies during the current crypto winter, for every seller there is a buyer, and some of them are long-term investors who have conviction in the crypto's potential. Chaos can provide good buying opportunities. Here are three cryptos for risk-tolerant investors to consider buying during the current bear market.1. EthereumEthereum has rallied 26% since its June low, but has sold off following the FTX bankruptcy filing. However, this could be a case of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater as Ethereum is a decentralized, established cryptocurrency that has little to do with FTX. No single entity controls Ethereum, and over 70 million users worldwide help to validate transactions and secure the Ethereum network, putting it in stark contrast with cryptocurrencies like FTX Token and many of the other newer cryptocurrencies issued by exchanges and other centralized entities.This year, Ethereum users welcomed its long-awaited transition to proof-of-stake consensus, known as The Merge, which drastically reduced Ethereum's carbon footprint, paved the way for sharding (which will eventually lead to faster transactions and lower fees when implemented in the next upgrade), and opened up the ability for more Ethereum users to earn rewards for participating in the network by staking their holdings to validate transactions and secure the network.The ability to easily earn staking rewards also increases Ethereum's appeal as an investment. A user needs to stake a minimum of 32 Ether to run their own validator, but there are plenty of services that stake your Ethereum for you, allowing you to earn returns competitive with the payouts you can earn from popular dividend stocks as well as 10-year Treasury notes.The $180 billion cryptocurrency is by far the largest smart-contract platform, making it the de facto gateway for larger institutional investors that want to get involved in the world of decentralized finance (DeFi). JPMorgan Chase recently tested the waters of decentralized finance with its first ever DeFi trade. The trade was executed on the Polygon blockchain, which is a Layer 2 network on Ethereum. Major decentralized exchanges like Uniswap, dYdX, and others are built on Ethereum. As additional traditional financial heavyweights get involved in decentralized finance, Ethereum will be their first stop.With new capabilities after The Merge such as the ability to earn rewards for staking, and its position at the gateway to the world of DeFi, Ethereum looks like a top cryptocurrency to buy during the bear market.2. Bitcoin Like Ethereum, Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency that stands out in the crowd. The original crypto is also the original decentralized asset. There is no leader or central authority that controls the Bitcoin network -- meaning there's no one entity that can make a poor decision or act in a manner that destroys the value of Bitcoin. A network of miners all over the world secure the Bitcoin network by solving complex mathematical equations to validate transactions and earn more Bitcoin. Bitcoin is also transparent in that all transactions appear on its blockchain, which is publicly viewable.Bitcoin is the oldest and largest cryptocurrency, and will benefit as the gateway to cryptocurrency as more institutional investors and corporations test the waters of cryptocurrency. While the FTX saga has certainly set crypto adoption back a few steps, overall, the tide is turning toward Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a whole.On Oct. 11, Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodial bank, announced that it would offer custody for cryptocurrencies. Alphabet recently announced it would utilize Coinbase to accept payments using Bitcoin for its Google Cloud services, and Mastercard announced it would offer its services to enable traditional banks to offer cryptocurrency trading.As the world moves further toward crypto adoption, Bitcoin is best suited to lead cryptocurrency forward.3. LitecoinLitecoin is one major crypto that has been able to avoid being pulled down in the current sell-off, and the proof-of-work crypto is surprisingly up 16% over the past month. The $4 billion crypto, which started as a fork of Bitcoin in 2011, is experiencing a bit of a resurgence, with a rally of 53% since the low it hit in June.Litecoin is surging as the network's hash rate hits new all-time highs, indicating increasing interest in Litecoin and more competition to earn Litecoin by mining. Litecoin also benefited from news that it will join Bitcoin and Ethereum as digital assets that will be available on Moneygram International's payment platform. Like Bitcoin and Ethereum, Litecoin is one of the cryptocurrencies that Google Cloud will accept for payment, giving the 16th-largest crypto by market cap enhanced credibility. Perhaps a renewed interest in decentralized, proof-of-work assets plus growing adoption will continue to propel Litecoin higher.The current crypto winter has been difficult for investors, but this bear market is also an opportune time for long-term, risk-tolerant investors to accumulate more tokens at lower prices before market sentiment again turns positive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966156796,"gmtCreate":1669451531715,"gmtModify":1676538198675,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","listText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","text":"[Doubt]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966156796","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110767793?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952394874,"gmtCreate":1674439413299,"gmtModify":1676538940392,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>[Doubt]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>[Doubt]&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ [Doubt]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952394874","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067719632,"gmtCreate":1652508423526,"gmtModify":1676535114539,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[sick]&nbsp;","listText":"[sick]&nbsp;","text":"[sick]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067719632","repostId":"1176148703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176148703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652488034,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176148703?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-14 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? What Analysts Are Saying About the Future of Terra","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176148703","media":"investorplace","summary":"As Terra(LUNA-USD) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUN","content":"<div>\n<p>As Terra(LUNA-USD) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUNA cryptoFounder Do Kwon says developers are working diligently to right the networkAnalysts are torn...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/will-the-luna-crypto-recover-what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-future-of-terra/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? What Analysts Are Saying About the Future of Terra</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the LUNA Crypto Recover? What Analysts Are Saying About the Future of Terra\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-14 08:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/will-the-luna-crypto-recover-what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-future-of-terra/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As Terra(LUNA-USD) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUNA cryptoFounder Do Kwon says developers are working diligently to right the networkAnalysts are torn...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/will-the-luna-crypto-recover-what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-future-of-terra/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/will-the-luna-crypto-recover-what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-future-of-terra/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176148703","content_text":"As Terra(LUNA-USD) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUNA cryptoFounder Do Kwon says developers are working diligently to right the networkAnalysts are torn over whether LUNA prices will ever recoverSource: David Sandron / Shutterstock.comIt’s difficult to have faith in Terra at this point. The network is the talk of crypto bulls and crypto bears alike in the face of a major price meltdown this week. Those still invested are either buying in while prices are incredibly low, or they’ve lost so much they are just hoping for a miracle. Is LUNA going to come back from this?Do Kwon, the founder of the Terra network, sure seems to think so. Kwon has been trying to assuage investors since the projectbegan to seriously tank. He is doing this through the developers’three-pronged approachto salvaging the product.The first two parts of the plan involve a large TerraUSD(UST-USD) burn, in order to stabilize the token back at $1. Over 371 million UST on the Ethereum(ETH-USD) network will be burned, as will all UST remaining in the Terra community pool. The third prong of this plan involves staking 240 million LUNA to stabilize governance and keep a whale from seizing control over the network.Atop these plans, the developers are also taking on a community proposal to increase the burn rate of UST. Moreover, they temporarilyhalted the blockchain completely, freezing all unsettled transactions. This was to prevent users from taking advantage of the low price of LUNA and buying it all up at once.Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? Analysts Can’t Decide.While the LUNA crypto is now trading at only a fraction of 1 cent, investors might be throwing their hands up in the air. Can this bailout plan save the Terra network?Many have their doubts. It seems that most talk about the network online is quite negative, with lots of investors already considering the project dead. The Motley Fool’sTrevor Jennewine isadvising investors steer clear of LUNAnow, even with its exceptionally low cost. Price predicting websites likeCoinPriceForecastand DigitalCoinPricesee no growth opportunities for the network on the horizon either. The two sites predict an end-of-year price of 6 cents and less than 1 cent, respectively, for LUNA.There are others still with some hope still for the network. Crypto analysis website InvestingCubesaid that a LUNA crypto price recoverycould very well be a possibility. The report suggests that UST returning to $1 could catalyze a LUNA gain, allowing it to regain its footing. Price prediction site WalletInvestoris remaining extremely bullish with its 12-month LUNA prediction. It expects the coin to reach $151 by May 2023. Meanwhile, peer outletGov Capitalis predicting a $108 price for the coin in the same time frame.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}