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2022-01-24

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$😭😢😅😂

2022-01-06

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ 2022 discount

2021-08-06

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2021-09-02

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Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%

2021-08-01

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China Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion

2021-08-01

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2022-03-15

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The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices "swing wildly" between rebounds and plunges

2021-08-31

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2021-08-31

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91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar

2021-08-24

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A carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a "rising chorus"

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23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices \"swing wildly\" between rebounds and plunges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178901868","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The recent violent volatility in the U.S. Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, has posed huge challenges to traders trying to bet on both tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict to trigger commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand, while<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) is triggering concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation.\"</b></p><p>Since the Russian troops sent to Ukraine, the price of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen sharply and the yield has continued to decline. Safe-haven investors have rushed to buy this generally considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have rushed to buy U.S. bonds to avoid future prices. Miss buying points when climbing.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that last week, the situation seemed to have reversed. As concerns that the inflation rate has not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of U.S. bonds gradually withdrew, and the two-year U.S. bond yield soared to the highest point in two years. With the consumer price index (CPI) surging sharply and may still not have peaked, it shows that the Fed is highly likely to start a rate hike cycle on Wednesday Eastern Time.<b>Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was sold sharply again, with the yield once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9, the intraday yield of the 10-year U.S. bond was as low as 1.837%, and finally closed at a high of 1.958%. On March 10, the intraday yield was as low as 1.913%, and finally closed at a high of 2.021%. Similar plots were staged almost every day last week. Should we continue to bet? Traders are \"extremely tangled\".</p><p>The previous violent volatility has posed a difficult problem for traders: after selling U.S. bonds to make a profit flight, although everyone now has a lot of money on hand, the wrong person who bets will face a heavy price-in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be enough reasons to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth pull has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early COVID-19 crash in March 2020, or since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>In the face of this situation, some hedge funds have been treading cautiously to avoid losing money from wrong bets, deleveraging and unwinding positions. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term U.S. bonds (over 10 years), believing that long-term U.S. bonds will perform better as the outlook for U.S. economic growth darkens.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring cash on hand into some actively managed ETF funds focused on short-end bonds to transition over a period of slowing economic growth, a trend that data shows has been prevalent since the beginning of the year.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage RJ O 'Brien, said: \"<b>There is no doubt that this is a market that belongs to short-term traders.</b>\"He noted that with near-zero interest rates over the past two years, long-term investors have not seized the opportunities presented by spreads.</p><p><b>U.S. Treasury Bond market volatility surges</b></p><p>The volatility reflects broader market volatility as investors assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing simultaneous volatility in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets. This presents opportunities for quick-thinking traders,<b>But it also brings the risk of \"standing on the wrong side\" in the trend change.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O 'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trend of the U.S. Treasury Bond market is the largest value-at-risk (VAR) shock to \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He said that Citi's metrics show that trading volume in the Treasury Bond market in the United States has dropped from a higher level. \"At that time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, and now there is a sentiment that we should keep our feet on the ground and reduce the size of the deal.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some of the usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid the expectation that the Federal Reserve will conduct multiple rate hike this year. Bank of America said the decline in trading volume represents uncertainty for the market in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, noting that implied volatility across the yield curve has risen sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America pointed out that on Tuesday, the ICE Bank of America MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations for volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Bond has had its worst week in the last 10 years, losing a value in 5 days equivalent to the entire interest payment of the past year. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index is down 3.8% this year, more than any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Recession expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, the soaring commodity prices have made the market's expectation of economic growth slowdown stronger and stronger. The market is worried that economic growth will slow down when interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very obvious.<b>This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trade demand.\"</b>, that is, betting that short-term yields will rise more dramatically than long-term yields as economic growth prospects dim. On March 7, the difference between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest difference since the early COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 caused the U.S. economy to face stagnation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, as traders try to judge whether they have the guts to bet on flattening, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from rising downtrend risks. O 'Donnell, a strategist at Citigroup, said that some pension and insurance companies' capital flows are concentrated on buying options on 10-30-year U.S. Treasuries. If the U.S. economy slows sharply next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun to pivot one of its main funds more towards longer-end bonds. \"We're moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve,\" Schwartz said, with the company managing nearly $500 billion of assets at the end of last year.</p><p>Some analysts also believe that rising yields provide some benefits for individual investors, who can reinvest interest and principal in bonds with higher yields.</p><p><b>Actively managed debt funds are popular with investors</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA Research, said the volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETF funds.<b>These funds seek to proactively manage market risk and focus on short-term U.S. debt</b>, he mentioned the capital inflow of related products of large financial institutions such as PIMCO and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>\"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed debt-based fund managers can cope with market uncertainty by looking for additional yields with lower risks,\" Rosenbluth said. \"Understandably, compared with last year, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of higher interest rates, when last year's fixed-income ETFs faced higher risks.\"</p><p>For investors who have maintained a defensive posture and kept their interest rate exposure low, the rise in yields may provide an opportunity to get back into the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said: \"We have held positions for a short time and are trying to get back to neutral levels, so in our view the 2% level of any asset at 10 years is reasonable value for us.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices \"swing wildly\" between rebounds and plunges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices \"swing wildly\" between rebounds and plunges\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-14 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The recent violent volatility in the U.S. Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, has posed huge challenges to traders trying to bet on both tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict to trigger commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand, while<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) is triggering concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation.\"</b></p><p>Since the Russian troops sent to Ukraine, the price of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen sharply and the yield has continued to decline. Safe-haven investors have rushed to buy this generally considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have rushed to buy U.S. bonds to avoid future prices. Miss buying points when climbing.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that last week, the situation seemed to have reversed. As concerns that the inflation rate has not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of U.S. bonds gradually withdrew, and the two-year U.S. bond yield soared to the highest point in two years. With the consumer price index (CPI) surging sharply and may still not have peaked, it shows that the Fed is highly likely to start a rate hike cycle on Wednesday Eastern Time.<b>Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was sold sharply again, with the yield once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9, the intraday yield of the 10-year U.S. bond was as low as 1.837%, and finally closed at a high of 1.958%. On March 10, the intraday yield was as low as 1.913%, and finally closed at a high of 2.021%. Similar plots were staged almost every day last week. Should we continue to bet? Traders are \"extremely tangled\".</p><p>The previous violent volatility has posed a difficult problem for traders: after selling U.S. bonds to make a profit flight, although everyone now has a lot of money on hand, the wrong person who bets will face a heavy price-in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be enough reasons to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth pull has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early COVID-19 crash in March 2020, or since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>In the face of this situation, some hedge funds have been treading cautiously to avoid losing money from wrong bets, deleveraging and unwinding positions. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term U.S. bonds (over 10 years), believing that long-term U.S. bonds will perform better as the outlook for U.S. economic growth darkens.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring cash on hand into some actively managed ETF funds focused on short-end bonds to transition over a period of slowing economic growth, a trend that data shows has been prevalent since the beginning of the year.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage RJ O 'Brien, said: \"<b>There is no doubt that this is a market that belongs to short-term traders.</b>\"He noted that with near-zero interest rates over the past two years, long-term investors have not seized the opportunities presented by spreads.</p><p><b>U.S. Treasury Bond market volatility surges</b></p><p>The volatility reflects broader market volatility as investors assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing simultaneous volatility in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets. This presents opportunities for quick-thinking traders,<b>But it also brings the risk of \"standing on the wrong side\" in the trend change.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O 'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trend of the U.S. Treasury Bond market is the largest value-at-risk (VAR) shock to \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He said that Citi's metrics show that trading volume in the Treasury Bond market in the United States has dropped from a higher level. \"At that time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, and now there is a sentiment that we should keep our feet on the ground and reduce the size of the deal.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some of the usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid the expectation that the Federal Reserve will conduct multiple rate hike this year. Bank of America said the decline in trading volume represents uncertainty for the market in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, noting that implied volatility across the yield curve has risen sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America pointed out that on Tuesday, the ICE Bank of America MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations for volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Bond has had its worst week in the last 10 years, losing a value in 5 days equivalent to the entire interest payment of the past year. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index is down 3.8% this year, more than any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Recession expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, the soaring commodity prices have made the market's expectation of economic growth slowdown stronger and stronger. The market is worried that economic growth will slow down when interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very obvious.<b>This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trade demand.\"</b>, that is, betting that short-term yields will rise more dramatically than long-term yields as economic growth prospects dim. On March 7, the difference between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest difference since the early COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 caused the U.S. economy to face stagnation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, as traders try to judge whether they have the guts to bet on flattening, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from rising downtrend risks. O 'Donnell, a strategist at Citigroup, said that some pension and insurance companies' capital flows are concentrated on buying options on 10-30-year U.S. Treasuries. If the U.S. economy slows sharply next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun to pivot one of its main funds more towards longer-end bonds. \"We're moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve,\" Schwartz said, with the company managing nearly $500 billion of assets at the end of last year.</p><p>Some analysts also believe that rising yields provide some benefits for individual investors, who can reinvest interest and principal in bonds with higher yields.</p><p><b>Actively managed debt funds are popular with investors</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA Research, said the volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETF funds.<b>These funds seek to proactively manage market risk and focus on short-term U.S. debt</b>, he mentioned the capital inflow of related products of large financial institutions such as PIMCO and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>\"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed debt-based fund managers can cope with market uncertainty by looking for additional yields with lower risks,\" Rosenbluth said. \"Understandably, compared with last year, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of higher interest rates, when last year's fixed-income ETFs faced higher risks.\"</p><p>For investors who have maintained a defensive posture and kept their interest rate exposure low, the rise in yields may provide an opportunity to get back into the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said: \"We have held positions for a short time and are trying to get back to neutral levels, so in our view the 2% level of any asset at 10 years is reasonable value for us.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178901868","content_text":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪70年代式滞胀”的担忧。自俄罗斯出兵乌克兰之后，美国国债价格大幅上涨，收益率不断下滑，避险投资者纷纷买入这一普遍认为最安全的资产之一，同时引发债券投资者争相购买美债，以避免未来价格攀升时错过买点。智通财经APP观察到，在上周，情形似乎出现了反转，随着对通胀率仍未见顶担忧再度成为债市焦点，美债避险买盘逐渐退场，两年期美债收益率飙升至两年来最高点。随着消费者价格指数(CPI)大幅飙升且可能仍未见顶，显示美联储极大概率于美东时间周三开始加息周期。而在今天，10年期美债再次被大幅抛售，收益率一度达到2.10%，创2019年7月以来的最高水平。在3月9日，10年期美债日内收益率一度低至1.837%，最后以1.958%高点收盘，在3月10日日内收益率一度低至1.913%，最后以2.021%高点收盘，在上周几乎每天都在上演类似的剧情，究竟该不该继续押注?交易员们“纠结无比”。此前剧烈的波动给交易员们带来了一个难题:抛售美债实现获利出逃之后，尽管目前大家手头上拥有大量资金，但押注错误的人将面临惨重代价——在变化如此迅速的投资环境之中，做出看涨或看跌预判似乎都有足够的理由。这种来回拉扯使得广受关注的美国国债隐含价格波动性指标达到了自2020年3月新冠疫情初期崩盘，或2008年金融危机之后的最高水平。面对这种情况，一些对冲基金一直在谨慎行事，以避免因错误的押注、去杠杆化和平仓而蒙受亏损。长线投资者加大了对长端美债(10年期以上)的押注，认为随着美国经济增长前景黯淡，长端美债将会有更好的表现。与此同时，资产规模较小的投资者一直在向一些专注于短端债券的主动管理型ETF基金投入手头上的现金，以过渡经济增长放缓时期，有数据显示这一趋势自年初以来一直很普遍。芝加哥期货经纪公司RJ O’Brien董事总经理John Brady表示：“毫无疑问，这是一个属于短期交易者的市场。”他指出，在过去两年接近零利率的情况下，长期投资者没有抓住利差带来的机会。美国国债市场波动性剧增这一波动性反映了更广泛的市场波动，因为此时投资者正评估俄乌冲突对全球经济带来的影响，导致股市、债市和外汇市场同时出现剧烈波动。这为思维敏捷的交易员带来了机会，但也带来了在趋势转变中“站错边”的风险。花旗集团策略师William O’Donnell表示，自俄乌冲突升级以来，美国国债市场的走势对“对冲基金和热钱账户”来说是2020年3月以来最大的风险价值(VAR)冲击。他表示，花旗的衡量指标显示，美国国债市场的成交量已从较高水平下降，“当时有一种观点认为，这是一个不错的获利机会，而现在有一种情绪，认为我们应该脚踏实地，减少交易规模。”值得注意的是，在上周，美国银行业曾指出，在美联储今年将多次加息的预期下，一些往常较热门的交易近期开始大幅缩减。美银表示，交易量下滑代表着市场在短期内面临不确定性，而这明显体现在潜在的波动性剧增上，并指出整条收益率曲线上的隐含波动率均大幅上升。美银指出，在上周二，追踪交易员对美国债券市场波动预期的ICE美国银行移动指数(BofA MOVE Index)触及140.03点，为2020年3月以来的最高水平。美国国债经历了过去10年中最糟糕的一周，在5天内损失的价值相当于过去一年的全部利息支付。美国国债指数今年下跌了3.8%，超过了自1973年以来Bloomberg data有记录的任何全年跌幅。经济衰退预期自上个月以来，大宗商品价格飙升使得市场对于经济增长放缓的预期越来越强烈，市场担心在利率上升之际经济增长速度将放缓，甚至有交易员认为“滞胀苗头”已非常明显。这进一步刺激了本已强劲的所谓“趋平交易需求”，即押注随着经济增长前景黯淡，短端收益率将比长端收益率升幅更加剧烈。在3月7日，两年期和10年期美债收益率的差值缩小至仅19个基点，这是自2020年3月新冠疫情初期导致美国经济面临停滞以来的最小差值。不过，在交易员们试图判断自己是否有胆量押注趋平之际，长线投资者正专注于保护其资产免受不断增长的下行趋势风险的冲击。花旗集团策略师O’Donnell表示，部分养老金和保险公司的资金流向集中于买入10- 30年期美债的期权，如果明年美国经济大幅放缓，收益率从当前水平回落，这些期权持有者将会获利。Western Asset基金经理Molly Schwartz表示，该公司已开始将旗下一只主要基金更多地转向较长端债券。截至去年年底，该公司管理着近5,000亿美元资产，Schwartz表示:“我们正在将一些前端敞口移至收益率曲线上方。”也有分析观点认为，收益率抬升为个人投资者提供了一些好处，他们可以将利息和本金再投资于收益率更高的债券。主动管理型债基受投资者热捧CFRA Research的ETF和共同基金研究主管Todd Rosenbluth表示，这种波动似乎也增加了投资者们对一些ETF基金的兴趣，这些基金寻求主动管理市场风险，并专注于短端美债，他提到了太平洋投资管理公司和摩根大通等大型金融机构旗下相关产品今年以来的资金流入量。Rosenbluth表示:“从历史数据来看，投资者一直愿意相信主动管理型债基的基金经理能够通过寻找风险较低的额外收益来应对市场的不确定性。”“可以理解的是，与去年相比，今年的资金流向为利率抬升这一预期提供了一些保护空间，而当时去年的固定收益型ETF面临的风险较高。”对于那些一直保持防御性态势并保持较低水平的利率风险敞口投资者来说，收益率的上升可能提供了一个重返市场的机会。Cresset Capital首席投资官Jack Ablin表示:“我们仓位持有时间较短，并试图回到中性水平，因此在我们看来10年期任何资产的2%水平对我们来说都是合理价值。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007776016,"gmtCreate":1643025925612,"gmtModify":1676533765876,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>😭😢😅😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>😭😢😅😂","text":"$Exela Technologies, 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22:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170877267","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","content":"<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose intraday. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Rose nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPopular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 22:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose intraday. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Rose nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170877267","content_text":"周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818497606,"gmtCreate":1630423932105,"gmtModify":1676530300912,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818497606","repostId":"1169845430","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169845430","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630412757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169845430?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 20:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"XPeng vehicles: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169845430","media":"新浪科技","summary":"上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元，去年同期亏损20.76亿元。","content":"<p>On the evening of August 31, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It was announced today that the company's total revenue in the first half of the year was RMB 6.712 billion, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%; The net loss in the first half of the year was RMB 1.981 billion, compared with a loss of RMB 2.076 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Summary of results for the first half of 202:</b></p><p>Vehicle deliveries for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were 30,738 units, an increase of 459% from 5,499 units for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>P7 deliveries for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were 19,496 units. XPeng began batch deliveries of the P7 at the end of June 2020.</p><p>Of the total P7 delivered for the six months ended June 30, 2021, 97% can support XPILOT 2.5 or XPILOT 3.0.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Automobile's physical sales and service network includes 200 stores and 64 service centers, covering 74 cities.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, the number of XPeng Automobile brand super charging stations has expanded to 231, covering 65 cities.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, total revenue was RMB6, 712.2 million (US $1,039.6 million), an increase of 569.3% from RMB1, 002.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Revenue from automobile sales for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB6, 394.7 million (US $990.4 million), an increase of 600.2% from RMB913.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Gross profit margin was 11.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to negative 3.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Automobile gross profit margin (i.e. gross profit from automobile sales as a percentage of automobile sales revenue) was 10.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to negative 5.5% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1, 981.1 million (US $306.8 million), compared to RMB795.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption options, non-GAAP net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1792.7 million (US $277.7 million), compared to RMB 1414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automobile for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1,981.1 million (US $306.8 million), compared to RMB 2,076.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to redemption options in preferred shares, and increases in redemption values in preferred shares, non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1,792.7 million (US $277.7 million), compared to RMB 1,414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Basic and diluted net loss per American depositary share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB2.49 (US $0.39), and basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share was RMB1.25 (US $0.19).</p><p>Non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per American depositary share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was both RMB2.26 (US $0.35), compared to non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.13 (US $0.17). Each ADS represents two shares of Class A common stock.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits were RMB32, 871.2 million (US $5,091.1 million).</p><p><b>XPeng vehicle deliveries in July:</b></p><p>July 2021, XPeng Automobile<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Total deliveries of electric vehicles reached 8,040 units, an increase of 228% year-on-year. Included in July deliveries are 6,054 P7s (XPeng Motor's smart sports sedan) and 1,986 G3s (XPeng Motor's compact smart SUV). As of July 31, 2021, year-to-date deliveries reached 38,778 vehicles, an increase of 388% year-on-year.</p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng vehicles: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng vehicles: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-31 20:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the evening of August 31, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>It was announced today that the company's total revenue in the first half of the year was RMB 6.712 billion, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%; The net loss in the first half of the year was RMB 1.981 billion, compared with a loss of RMB 2.076 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Summary of results for the first half of 202:</b></p><p>Vehicle deliveries for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were 30,738 units, an increase of 459% from 5,499 units for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>P7 deliveries for the six months ended June 30, 2021 were 19,496 units. XPeng began batch deliveries of the P7 at the end of June 2020.</p><p>Of the total P7 delivered for the six months ended June 30, 2021, 97% can support XPILOT 2.5 or XPILOT 3.0.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Automobile's physical sales and service network includes 200 stores and 64 service centers, covering 74 cities.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, the number of XPeng Automobile brand super charging stations has expanded to 231, covering 65 cities.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, total revenue was RMB6, 712.2 million (US $1,039.6 million), an increase of 569.3% from RMB1, 002.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Revenue from automobile sales for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB6, 394.7 million (US $990.4 million), an increase of 600.2% from RMB913.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Gross profit margin was 11.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to negative 3.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Automobile gross profit margin (i.e. gross profit from automobile sales as a percentage of automobile sales revenue) was 10.6% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to negative 5.5% for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1, 981.1 million (US $306.8 million), compared to RMB795.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption options, non-GAAP net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1792.7 million (US $277.7 million), compared to RMB 1414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automobile for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1,981.1 million (US $306.8 million), compared to RMB 2,076.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to redemption options in preferred shares, and increases in redemption values in preferred shares, non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB 1,792.7 million (US $277.7 million), compared to RMB 1,414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Basic and diluted net loss per American depositary share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB2.49 (US $0.39), and basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share was RMB1.25 (US $0.19).</p><p>Non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per American depositary share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was both RMB2.26 (US $0.35), compared to non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.13 (US $0.17). Each ADS represents two shares of Class A common stock.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits were RMB32, 871.2 million (US $5,091.1 million).</p><p><b>XPeng vehicle deliveries in July:</b></p><p>July 2021, XPeng Automobile<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Total deliveries of electric vehicles reached 8,040 units, an increase of 228% year-on-year. Included in July deliveries are 6,054 P7s (XPeng Motor's smart sports sedan) and 1,986 G3s (XPeng Motor's compact smart SUV). As of July 31, 2021, year-to-date deliveries reached 38,778 vehicles, an increase of 388% year-on-year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08-31/doc-iktzqtyt3280321.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401f7adefb705cb1d679bb39b97c03e1","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08-31/doc-iktzqtyt3280321.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169845430","content_text":"北京时间8月31日晚间消息，小鹏汽车今日发布公告称，该公司上半年总收入为人民币67.12亿元，同比上升569.3%；上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元，去年同期亏损20.76亿元。\n202年上半年业绩摘要：\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月汽车交付量为30,738辆，较2020年6月30日止六个月的5,499辆上升459%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月P7交付量为19,496辆。小鹏汽车于2020年6月底开始批量交付P7。\n在截至2021年6月30日止六个月已交付的P7总量中，97%可支持XPILOT 2.5或XPILOT3.0。\n截至2021年6月30日，小鹏汽车的实体销售和服务网络包括200间门店和64个服务中心，覆盖74个城市。\n截至2021年6月30日，小鹏汽车品牌超级充电站扩展至231座，覆盖65个城市。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月，总收入为人民币67.122亿元（10.396亿美元），较截至2020年6月30日止六个月的人民币10.029亿元上升569.3%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月，汽车销售收入 为人民币63.947亿 元（9.904亿美元），较截至2020年6月30日止六个月的人民币9.133亿元上升600.2%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月毛利率为11.6%，相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为负3.6%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月汽车毛利率（即汽车销售毛利润占汽车销售收入的百分比）为10.6%，相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为负5.5%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月净亏损为人民币19.811亿元（3.068亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币7.958亿元。除以股份为基础的薪酬开支和与优先股赎回权相关的衍生负债公允价值变动外，截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则净亏损为人民币1,7.927亿元（2.777亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币1,4.142亿元。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月小鹏汽车普通股东应占净亏损为人民币19.811亿元（306.8百万美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币20.765亿元。除以股份为基础的薪酬开支、与优先股赎回权相关的衍生负债公允价值变动以及优先股赎回价值的增加外，截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则小鹏汽车普通股东应占净亏损为人民币17.927亿元（2.777亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币14.142亿元。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月每股美国存托股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币2.49元（0.39美元），而每股普通股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币1.25元（0.19美元）。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则每股美国存托股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币2.26元（0.35美元），而非公认会计原则每股普通股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币1.13元（0.17美元）。每一股美国存托股代表两股A类普通股。\n截至2021年6月30日，现金及现金等价物、受限制现金、短期存款、短期投资及长期存款为人民币328.712亿元（50.911亿美元）。\n小鹏汽车7月的交付量：\n2021年7月，小鹏汽车智能电动汽车的总交付量达8,040辆，按年增长228%。 7月的交付中包括6,054辆P7（小鹏汽车的智能运动型轿车）和1,986辆G3（小鹏汽车的紧凑型智能SUV）。截至2021年7月31日，年初至今的交付量达38,778辆，按年增长388%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818028737,"gmtCreate":1630367097929,"gmtModify":1676530280436,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818028737","repostId":"1183198336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183198336","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630309929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183198336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198336","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。","content":"<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he is 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"Physically, I have no value, only a little residual value left. It's really useless, but it doesn't prevent me from working, feeling happy or thinking. I don't feel that my enjoyment and love of life have decreased in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I am in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name always has a strong legendary color, from American Express to Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its concept of \"value investment\" has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is also at the top of the contempt chain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School and learned from Benjamin Graham, who is known as the \"father of value investors\". Under Graham's door, Buffett is like a duck to water.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. Since then, the nature of Berkshire's business has changed. It is no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as an operating platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity, and creating investment myths.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (that is, more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 Index's growth rate was 15,019%. This is only the increase in book value, and Berkshire's intrinsic value has grown much more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source : WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after 53 years of uncanny operation by Buffett, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and precise. The victory of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name of a blue-chip printing company (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy has grown slowly, and the increase in unit price has led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is much more valuable than its book value. It is a brand enterprise, and its products can be sold at a price higher than the production cost, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's working capital. After paying the corporate profit tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive enterprises.</p><p>See-Poetry has brought many new sources of cash to Berkshire, which is just like the description of Berkshire in the Bible: \"plump, fertile and fertile\".</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett once again bought a large amount of GEICO shares, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, with a total cost of US $47.14 million. In the 15 years after 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's equity share had increased to 50% and spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% shares. After owning all the equity, GEICO continues to contribute free insurance float to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep relationship with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about 4 hours explaining the operating model of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO The core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly anticipated commercial castle, then the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of the contradiction between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its share price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of Coca-Cola shares. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, with a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars. The total dividends received during the period were approximately 6 billion US dollars.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks Coke every day and has been living this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live one more year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and chocolate every day can make me happier but lose my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an excellent company, and the management is concerned about the return on capital and tangible cash earnings of shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has a long history of continuity, and the outlook for the next few decades is also clear. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic cases scattered in Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started buying in 1973, had an equity swap in 2014, with an annualized return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who bought it in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to buy in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>All PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were sold from July to October 2007, with pre-tax investment income of approximately US $3.55 billion;</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>One by one, the vivid cases not only form outstanding investment performance, but also contain changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent enterprise learner, who can quickly and accurately distinguish the complex keys of a company. He can veto an investment in two minutes and make major investment decisions in two days of analysis. He is always ready. As he says in the company's annual report, \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about the trend of the short-term stock market, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of the company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that in his 40-year career, the results of 12 investment decisions have made him unique.</p><p><b>Buffett is not outdated, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, your excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone is competing to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there has been an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concluded that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because Berkshire The ultra-low capital cost of insurance business implies 1.4 ~ 1.6 times leverage in returns.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies to analyze Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a strong advocate of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the part of quantitative traditional finance) on the one hand, and from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the part of behavioral finance), and on the other hand, there is indeed some luck. As the saying goes, the right place and the right time are harmonious, and no one can be less.</p><p>So, what did he do right to achieve such investment achievements? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or self-defense?<b>This time, let's talk about investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding of analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the small and insignificant market value factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factor, and introduced AQR's quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta), forming a new FF five-factor model to more accurately divide the contribution of factors. The assumptions and premises of the specific model will not be repeated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The attribution analysis of Berkshire's excess returns is split above. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2%. In other words, Buffett can achieve such achievements, half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune), and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>Among them, it should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market capitalization has a negative contribution. It cannot be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here. It may also be that there are discussions on the choice of time periods or indicators. Looking at the new FF5 model that we have improved, we can find that most of the excess returns that have not been explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them is explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the low financing cost, the use of high leverage, the purchase of safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and the long-term holding. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify profits. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the perspective of financing, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He uses debt to drive investment and invests to expand the debt cycle model.</p><p>To sum up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. One third of his success depends on the sky (betting on the luck of the times and the country), and most of it depends on people (his personal investment ability is too excellent).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people all over the world, and there is only a Buffett? Is it just luck? Maybe all the good luck of the whole world is concentrated on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? Still in the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first made a simple CAPM regression analysis on Berkshire's rate of return, and the results were as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where the beta is about 0.65, the cross-sectional alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's null hypothesis that the excess return is 0. Furthermore, from the rate of return, we can see that the excess annualized rate of return obtained by the simple CAPM model has reached 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of yield minus the variance of market yield) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their annual excess returns obey the normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fitting times, and the results are as shown in the following figure:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the figure above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, only 14 of the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck) finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line has been almost always at the top of the entire random fitting part throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained its \"super god\" performance for a long time and has been stable within the top 0.2% range. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still think that they don't agree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the rate of return of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose to look more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Divide 14 investors who perform better than Buffett into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and take the largest, 75% percentile, 25% percentile and smallest investor as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980 ~ 2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Friends, have you noticed that these investors who ultimately performed better than Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage at all! Take the best performing (blue) as an example. Before 2005, its performance had been worse than Buffett for nearly 25 years. It caught up with and surpassed Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have long been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in the actual situation. First of all, the independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term unchanged investment, regardless of personal life, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even though this model has all kinds of flaws, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Stand up and act yourself, have a clear understanding of the circle of competence</p><p>Value investing, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money whose value recovers after the oversold created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, whether it is because the company really has poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging part of value investing. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and investment behavior against human nature.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors overly pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, causing these \"beautiful\" stocks to be overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So, in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high-valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low-valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, regardless of his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, his and Munger's behavioral and psychological superiority, and their accumulated practice over time are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human natural cognitive biases (Cognitive Bias) and emotional biases (Emotional Bias). Buffett and Munger's decision-making methods, cognitive abilities, or emotional discipline are all complementary to Buffett's advantages and performance. In particular, Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, has an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural charismatic characteristics, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The weird and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both the above factors and the investment framework Buffett is good at can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely, overestimation (Over Estimation), overplacement (Over Placement) and overprecision (Over Precision).</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to wrong financial and other decisions for a long time and consistently.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key point is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the prejudice of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often called \"the root of all prejudice\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all prejudices, and are very cautious about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the impact of overconfidence on decision-making. adverse effects. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess the scope of their knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being excellent.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of more than 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times. Their performance is far better than that of the S&P 500 index, which has performed well. Part of Buffett's income is due to the dividends of the market environment, but more due to his personal stock selection strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to defeat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger's personal charm and character, as well as his great philosophical system, are the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical performance.</p><p>However, even if it is a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger, its performance has significantly underperformed the market from time to time in history. If value investing can outperform the market at all times, then countless investors will inevitably pour in, which will lead to the failure of value investing strategies. It is precisely the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market efficiency hypothesis untenable and brings opportunities for firm value investors to outperform the market in the long term.</p><p>However, value investing is also a double-edged sword for the natural high tracking error of the market. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing unable to tolerate tracking errors. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from the noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our beliefs in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long period of value investment. cycle.</p><p>In this way, encourage each other.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 15:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he is 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"Physically, I have no value, only a little residual value left. It's really useless, but it doesn't prevent me from working, feeling happy or thinking. I don't feel that my enjoyment and love of life have decreased in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I am in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name always has a strong legendary color, from American Express to Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its concept of \"value investment\" has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is also at the top of the contempt chain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School and learned from Benjamin Graham, who is known as the \"father of value investors\". Under Graham's door, Buffett is like a duck to water.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. Since then, the nature of Berkshire's business has changed. It is no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as an operating platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity, and creating investment myths.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (that is, more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 Index's growth rate was 15,019%. This is only the increase in book value, and Berkshire's intrinsic value has grown much more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source : WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after 53 years of uncanny operation by Buffett, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and precise. The victory of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name of a blue-chip printing company (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy has grown slowly, and the increase in unit price has led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is much more valuable than its book value. It is a brand enterprise, and its products can be sold at a price higher than the production cost, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's working capital. After paying the corporate profit tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive enterprises.</p><p>See-Poetry has brought many new sources of cash to Berkshire, which is just like the description of Berkshire in the Bible: \"plump, fertile and fertile\".</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett once again bought a large amount of GEICO shares, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, with a total cost of US $47.14 million. In the 15 years after 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's equity share had increased to 50% and spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% shares. After owning all the equity, GEICO continues to contribute free insurance float to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep relationship with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about 4 hours explaining the operating model of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO The core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly anticipated commercial castle, then the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of the contradiction between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its share price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of Coca-Cola shares. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, with a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars. The total dividends received during the period were approximately 6 billion US dollars.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks Coke every day and has been living this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live one more year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and chocolate every day can make me happier but lose my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an excellent company, and the management is concerned about the return on capital and tangible cash earnings of shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has a long history of continuity, and the outlook for the next few decades is also clear. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic cases scattered in Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started buying in 1973, had an equity swap in 2014, with an annualized return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who bought it in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to buy in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>All PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were sold from July to October 2007, with pre-tax investment income of approximately US $3.55 billion;</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>One by one, the vivid cases not only form outstanding investment performance, but also contain changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent enterprise learner, who can quickly and accurately distinguish the complex keys of a company. He can veto an investment in two minutes and make major investment decisions in two days of analysis. He is always ready. As he says in the company's annual report, \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about the trend of the short-term stock market, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of the company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that in his 40-year career, the results of 12 investment decisions have made him unique.</p><p><b>Buffett is not outdated, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, your excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone is competing to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there has been an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concluded that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because Berkshire The ultra-low capital cost of insurance business implies 1.4 ~ 1.6 times leverage in returns.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies to analyze Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a strong advocate of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the part of quantitative traditional finance) on the one hand, and from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the part of behavioral finance), and on the other hand, there is indeed some luck. As the saying goes, the right place and the right time are harmonious, and no one can be less.</p><p>So, what did he do right to achieve such investment achievements? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or self-defense?<b>This time, let's talk about investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding of analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the small and insignificant market value factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factor, and introduced AQR's quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta), forming a new FF five-factor model to more accurately divide the contribution of factors. The assumptions and premises of the specific model will not be repeated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The attribution analysis of Berkshire's excess returns is split above. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2%. In other words, Buffett can achieve such achievements, half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune), and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>Among them, it should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market capitalization has a negative contribution. It cannot be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here. It may also be that there are discussions on the choice of time periods or indicators. Looking at the new FF5 model that we have improved, we can find that most of the excess returns that have not been explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them is explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the low financing cost, the use of high leverage, the purchase of safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and the long-term holding. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify profits. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the perspective of financing, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He uses debt to drive investment and invests to expand the debt cycle model.</p><p>To sum up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. One third of his success depends on the sky (betting on the luck of the times and the country), and most of it depends on people (his personal investment ability is too excellent).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people all over the world, and there is only a Buffett? Is it just luck? Maybe all the good luck of the whole world is concentrated on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? Still in the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first made a simple CAPM regression analysis on Berkshire's rate of return, and the results were as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where the beta is about 0.65, the cross-sectional alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's null hypothesis that the excess return is 0. Furthermore, from the rate of return, we can see that the excess annualized rate of return obtained by the simple CAPM model has reached 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of yield minus the variance of market yield) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their annual excess returns obey the normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fitting times, and the results are as shown in the following figure:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the figure above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, only 14 of the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck) finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line has been almost always at the top of the entire random fitting part throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained its \"super god\" performance for a long time and has been stable within the top 0.2% range. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still think that they don't agree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the rate of return of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose to look more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Divide 14 investors who perform better than Buffett into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and take the largest, 75% percentile, 25% percentile and smallest investor as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980 ~ 2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Friends, have you noticed that these investors who ultimately performed better than Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage at all! Take the best performing (blue) as an example. Before 2005, its performance had been worse than Buffett for nearly 25 years. It caught up with and surpassed Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have long been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in the actual situation. First of all, the independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term unchanged investment, regardless of personal life, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even though this model has all kinds of flaws, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Stand up and act yourself, have a clear understanding of the circle of competence</p><p>Value investing, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money whose value recovers after the oversold created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, whether it is because the company really has poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging part of value investing. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and investment behavior against human nature.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors overly pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, causing these \"beautiful\" stocks to be overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So, in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high-valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low-valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, regardless of his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, his and Munger's behavioral and psychological superiority, and their accumulated practice over time are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human natural cognitive biases (Cognitive Bias) and emotional biases (Emotional Bias). Buffett and Munger's decision-making methods, cognitive abilities, or emotional discipline are all complementary to Buffett's advantages and performance. In particular, Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, has an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural charismatic characteristics, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The weird and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both the above factors and the investment framework Buffett is good at can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely, overestimation (Over Estimation), overplacement (Over Placement) and overprecision (Over Precision).</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to wrong financial and other decisions for a long time and consistently.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key point is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the prejudice of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often called \"the root of all prejudice\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all prejudices, and are very cautious about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the impact of overconfidence on decision-making. adverse effects. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess the scope of their knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being excellent.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of more than 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times. Their performance is far better than that of the S&P 500 index, which has performed well. Part of Buffett's income is due to the dividends of the market environment, but more due to his personal stock selection strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to defeat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger's personal charm and character, as well as his great philosophical system, are the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical performance.</p><p>However, even if it is a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger, its performance has significantly underperformed the market from time to time in history. If value investing can outperform the market at all times, then countless investors will inevitably pour in, which will lead to the failure of value investing strategies. It is precisely the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market efficiency hypothesis untenable and brings opportunities for firm value investors to outperform the market in the long term.</p><p>However, value investing is also a double-edged sword for the natural high tracking error of the market. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing unable to tolerate tracking errors. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from the noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our beliefs in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long period of value investment. cycle.</p><p>In this way, encourage each other.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198336","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett），1930年8月30日出生于美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈小镇，今天，他年满91岁。\n曾有人问巴菲特关于生命的问题。巴菲特回答：\n“在身体上我已经没有什么价值了，仅剩一点残值，它真的没有什么用了，但它不妨碍我工作，不妨碍我感到快乐，不妨碍我思考。我不感觉我对生活的享受，和热爱有任何减少，事实上，在某种意义上，我所处的游戏正变得越来越有趣，这是富有竞争的游戏，很大一场游戏，我很享受这场游戏。”\n\n这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩，从当年的美国运通到华盛顿邮报，从可口可乐的经典传奇，到08年金融危机拯救高盛于水火。与此同时，其“价值投资”理念也逐渐成为价值投资者的信条。不仅如此，巴菲特管理的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，也因为几十万美元一股（A类）的天价，雄踞鄙视链的顶端。\n在孩童时期，巴菲特就显现出对数字的敏感。1950年考入哥伦比亚大学商学院，拜师号称“价值投资者之父”的本杰明·格雷厄姆。在格雷厄姆门下，巴菲特如鱼得水。\n1962年，巴菲特买入第一笔伯克希尔股票。1965年年初，巴菲特获得伯克希尔的控制权。之后伯克希尔的经营性质发生了变化，不再是一家单纯的纺纱企业，而是一个投资实体。巴菲特将其作为经营平台，不断地收购其他利润丰厚的公司和股权，创造投资神话。\n1965~2018年，伯克希尔账面价值的复合年增长率为18.7%，明显超过标普500指数的9.7%。1964~2018年，伯克希尔的整体增长率是1,091,899%（即10918倍以上），而标普500指数为15,019%。这仅是账面价值的增长，伯克希尔内在价值的增长远高于其账面价值。\n\n数据来源：《WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders，2018》\n如果你在1965年买入1万美元的伯克希尔股票，经过巴菲特53年鬼斧神工的运作，它今天市场价格就已然变成大约2.47亿美元——值得一提的是这是税后的收入！\n经典案例：巴菲特是怎样做到的\n巴菲特是股权集中投资的代表，其投资案例少且精。这些“战役”的胜利硕果，依靠复利的力量，把伯克希尔推进了美国上市公司市值前十行列。\n喜诗糖果\n1972年，巴菲特以蓝筹印花公司（不久后被并入伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司）的名义花了2500万美元收购了喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）公司。\n喜诗糖果年均销量增长缓慢，而因单价的提升致使净利润暴增。\n\n在1984年3月致股东信里，巴菲特讲道：喜诗糖果比其账面价值要值钱很多。它是一个品牌企业，它的产品能够以高于生产成本的价格销售，并且在未来也会继续拥有这种定价权。\n巴菲特在回顾收购喜诗糖果时，视它为一项梦幻般出色的业务。从1972年至2007年，其为伯克希尔贡献了13.5亿美元的税前利润，只消耗了其中3200万美元用于补充公司的运营资金。在支付了企业利润税之后，剩下的资金来购买其他具有吸引力的企业。\n喜诗公司给伯克希尔带来了许多新的现金源泉，对伯克希尔来说就像《圣经》中形容的一样：“丰腴膏沃且生养众多”。\n政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）\n1976年，巴菲特买进了400万美元的政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）股票。1980年，巴菲特再次大笔买入GEICO股票，总共持有其720万股，占GEICO总股本的33%，总成本4714万美元。1980年之后的15年里，GEICO不断回购公司股票，伯克希尔的股权占比不断提高。1995年，伯克希尔股权占比已提高至50%，并花费23亿美元收购了剩余50%股份。在拥有全部股权后，GEICO不断地为伯克希尔贡献免费的保险浮存金用于投资，帮助伯克希尔的资产净值快速增长。\n巴菲特与政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）的渊源颇深。早在1950年，巴菲特还是格雷厄姆的学生时，就去拜访过GEICO，时任GEICO副总裁的大卫接待了巴菲特并花了约4小时详细地向巴菲特解释保险公司的运营模式，告诉巴菲特GEICO的核心竞争优势在于直销模式带来的低成本优势。\n若说GEICO是一座价值不菲且的众所仰望的商业城堡，那么其与同业间的成本与费用差异就是它的护城河。\n可口可乐\n1987年，可口可乐因百事可乐挑起的装瓶商之间的矛盾而陷入困境，股价较为低迷。1988年，巴菲特开始大量买入可口可乐股份，1988年年底共持有1417万股，成本5.92亿。1989年，继续增持，持股总数翻了一倍达2335万股，总成本10.24亿。1994年，巴菲特又买入了价值2.7亿美元的股票。\n\n至今，可口可乐仍是伯克希尔的重仓股，占总持仓比例的9.79%，持有4亿股，市值超过200亿美元，期间收到的分红总额约为60亿美元。\n巴菲特对可口可乐是真爱。在伯克希尔某次股东大会上，巴菲特表示，自己每天都喝可乐，从1982年开始就一直沿用这样的生活方式。“如果我每天只吃芦笋和西兰花一类的健康蔬菜可以多活一年，每天喝可乐吃巧克力能让我更开心却要折寿一年，那我愿意用一年的生命换取这样的快乐，这就是我的选择。”\n可口可乐是家卓越的公司，管理层关心股东的资本回报和有形现金收益。公司既能经营轻资产业务，同时还能获得极强的盈利能力。公司的增长既有很长的历史持续性，而且未来几十年的前景也很清晰。可口可乐被巴菲特归类为“永恒的持股”。\n散落在伯克希尔年报中的其他经典案例还有：\n1973年开始买入的华盛顿邮报，2014年股权置换，年化收益率12%；\n1986年买入的斯科特费策尔，到2000年，总共为伯克希尔贡献了10.3亿美元的分红；\n1988年开始买入的房地美，2000年全部卖出，税前总收益约为30亿美元；\n2003买入的中国石油H股，2007年7-10月全部卖出，税前投资收益约为35.5亿美元；\n等等。\n一个个鲜活的案例，不仅串成了显赫的投资业绩光耀于世，背后更蕴含着投资哲学及巴菲特投资思维的变化。\n巴菲特是一个出色的企业学习者，能够快速、精确地分辨出一个公司的复杂关键所在。他能在两分钟内否决一项投资，也能在分析的两天之内做出重大投资决策。他时刻准备着，正如他在公司年报中所说：“诺亚并不是等到下雨时才开始建造方舟。”\n他不关心短期股市的走势如何，强调确定公司内在价值和一个公平安全的价格是投资的要素。他从不投资于自己不懂的公司或能力圈之外的公司。在90年代，他曾指出，在他已有的40年职业生涯中，12项投资决策带来的结果已经使他与众不同。\n巴菲特没有过时，价值投资仍在神坛之上\n贵为在世的股神，其优异的历史业绩，一定是大家竞相学习和解构的对象。但众多的学术研究，并没有对其优异的历史业绩有非常高的共识，一些学术研究人员甚至将他的表现归功于运气。最近几年有一篇出自AQR的学术论文，叫巴菲特的超额收益（Buffet's Alpha），这篇论文得出结论，巴菲特的超额收益，来自于投资了安全、优质和廉价的股票，并且因为伯克希尔保险业务超低的资金成本，回报隐含了1.4~1.6倍的杠杆。\n但是，迄今为止，还并没有特别多的从行为金融学的角度，分析巴菲特业绩的研究。巴菲特在1987年时说过：\n\n “在我看来，成功的投资将不会来自于神秘的公式，计算机程序或市场的价格所发出的闪烁的信号。相反，投资者若将成功的商业判断与投资行动结合起来，做到知行合一，情绪不受市场波动影响，便会成功。”\n\n其实我并不是一个市场有效性假说的坚决拥护者，我相信市场不是完美的，但也不是完全不理性的。\n从我的研究经验来看，巴菲特优异的历史业绩，一方面来自于他的投资风格和资金成本（也就是定量的传统金融学的部分），另一方面，来自于他和芒格的投资行为（也就是行为金融学的部分），还有一方面，确实有着一些些运气的成分。正所谓，天时地利人和，一个都不能少。\n所以，他到底做对了什么，可以获得如此的投资成就呢？是能力过人，还是运气使然，抑或是立身行己？这次，我们从投资能力、运气和行为金融，这三个方面来聊聊。\n优异的投资能力是核心\n首先，我们借用经典的Fama-French的5因子模型，深入了解分析巴菲特的风格。五因子模型，是在著名的三因子模型之上，加入了盈利因子RMW（Robust Minus Weak）和投资因子CMA（Conservative Minus Aggressive）。同时，我们根据五因子模型的统计结果，对原模型进行了加工，去掉了贡献很小且不显著的市值因子SMB（Small Minus Big）和投资因子，引入了AQR的质量因子QMJ（Quality Minus Junk）和贝塔因子BAB（Betting Against Beta），组成了新FF五因子模型，更加精确地划分因子的贡献。具体模型的假设前提，在这里就不赘述了。\n\n以上将伯克希尔公司的超额收益归因分析进行拆分，从传统的Fama-French五因子模型，可以看出市场本身和超额收益，是最大的两个占比，其次是高价值和高盈利。其中市场本身和超额收益两者的贡献占比达到80.2%，换句话说，巴菲特能取得如此的成就，一半感谢市场长期的上涨（国运），一半得益于自身优秀（能力）。\n其中需要注意的是，归因分析出来发现小市值是负贡献的，这里不能绝对的说这个因子没有作用，也可能是时间段的选择或者指标的选择方面存在商榷。再看经过我们改良过的新FF5模型，可以发现，之前未能被解释的大部分超额收益，从6.66%，下降到了2.40%，被高质量质和低贝塔两个因子解释了相当一部分。\n巴菲特惊人的业绩，主要归功于以较低的融资成本，使用高杠杆，购买安全、高质量又便宜的股票，并长期持有。无论用什么方式研究，都可以发现巴菲特善于使用杠杆来放大收益。但是，高杠杆只能解释一部分其惊人的表现，如果仅仅盲目的高杠杆，反而会降低其收益。从融资端看，巴菲特的融资来源主要是AAA级的优质债券，和公司廉价的保费收入，以负债驱动投资，投资扩大负债的循环模式。\n总结下来：选择高质量、低贝塔、高价值的股票是巴菲特的风格，也就是巴老自己所说的：用一般的价格投资高质量的公司，优于在便宜的价格投资一般的公司。他的成功，三分之一靠天（赌时代和国家的运气），大部分靠人（个人投资能力太优秀）。\n运气永远是给有准备的人\n但是可能有的人就会问了，全世界几十亿人，也就出了一个巴菲特呀？是不是仅仅只是运气好呢？说不定全世界的好运气都集中在这一个人身上了呢？下面我们就来研究，神坛上到底是人还是神？还是在1980年至2017年这38年的时间里，首先我们对伯克希尔公司的收益率作简单的CAPM回归分析，得到结果如下：\n\n其中beta约为0.65，横截距alpha为0.0096,，并且两个参数都通过显著检验，说明我们拒绝巴菲特的超额收益为0的原假设。进一步而言，从收益率上，我们可以看出，通过简单CAPM模型得到的超额年化收益率达到了11.52%。从风险的角度，可以算得其超额收益的波动率（收益率总方差减市场收益率方差的平方根）为16.83%。\n为了更好说明巴菲特的运气成分，我们采用以下模型假设：\n\n在同一个初始时刻，有10000个完全独立的投资者，和巴菲特一起投资了1美元；\n\n\n这些投资者的收益率完全随机，其每一年的超额收益服从均值为0，方差等于16.83%的正态分布；\n\n\n这些投资者会一直坚定地持有到2017年年底，无论期间的涨跌幅。\n\n做10000次的随机拟合，得到结果如下图：\n\n上图中，蓝色的线表示巴菲特的累计收益，橙色的线表示最终累计收益率超过了巴菲特的随机拟合增长。\n从图中可以看出，10000个服从巴菲特收益分布但是随机波动的投资者（凭运气），仅仅只有14位最终获得了比巴菲特高的投资表现！而且从图上还可以看出，在整个持有期内，巴菲特的增长线几乎一直在整个随机拟合部分的顶部。\n长期保持着“超神”的表现，一直稳定在前0.2%的的范围内，这一定不是随机的运气，而是实实在在的投资实力。可能有的小伙伴还会觉得不以为然，还是有14个“天才”比巴菲特厉害的嘛，那我们取出来这14个投资者的收益率，做个简单的研究，看看我们是否会选择看上去更加“牛叉”的他们。\n\n将14个表现优于巴菲特的投资者，按照年化收益率的大小排序分为四组，取最大、75%分位、25%分位和最小的那一位投资者作为每一组代表；\n\n\n比较这四位投资者相对巴菲特的超额收益，在同时期内（1980年~2017年），比较10年滚动年化收益率。\n\n\n小伙伴们有木有发现，这些最终表现优于巴菲特（红色基准线之上）的投资者，可能根本在前期就活不下来喂！以表现最好的（蓝色）举个例子，其在2005年之前，在近25年的时间内，表现一直比巴菲特差，赶上并超过巴菲特，几乎是得益于2010年之后的爆发。\n这样的基金经理，在现实中恐怕早已被投资人所抛弃了，所以更谈不上之后的井喷式爆发。\n似乎看到这里，小伙伴们都认为神坛之上的巴菲特遥不可及。但是，这个模型在实际情况中却存在许多问题。首先，投资人之间的独立性。即便每个人都持有不一样的股票或资产，他们之间的收益率也不会是完全独立的；其次，投资的持有期，在实际生活中，38年的长期不变的投资，在不考虑个人寿命的情况下，应该只存在类似养老金的长期资金管理机构之上了。\n但是即便这个模型存在种种缺陷，但还是很好地说明了一个问题，想靠运气打败神坛上的巴菲特？难得很。\n立身行己，对能力圈清楚的认知\n价值投资，其实从行为学的角度来看，就是在赚取由于市场对坏消息过激的反应创造出来的超跌后价值回升的钱。但如何判断价值被低估的公司，是因为公司确实基本面差、丧失和市场地位，还是因为市场在不理性的认知下过度反应了呢？这些难以一句话解释清楚的问题，其实就是价值投资最具挑战性的地方。价值投资是逆向投资，逆向投资要求有逆向思维，而且要求有逆人性的投资行为。\nNicola Gennaioli，Yueran Ma，Andrei Shleifer 在《Expectation and Investments》中指出：\n\n 过往一年高的利润率，会使得投资人过度乐观；而过往一年低的利润率，会使得投资人过度悲观。\n\nJosef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny在《Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk》中指出：\n\n 一些投资人往往对过往表现好的股票过于乐观，导致这些“漂亮的”股票估值过高。\n\nJoseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So在《Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/ Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach》中指出：\n\n 股票的错误定价来自于投资人对于“高估值”股票的过度乐观和对“低估值”股票的过度悲观。\n\n巴菲特优异的历史业绩，抛开其过人的投资能力和低廉的资金成本，他和芒格在行为和心理上高人一等、日积月累的修行，也是成功的必要条件。\n这包括战胜人类天生的认知偏见（Cognitive Bias）和情感偏见（Emotional Bias）。巴菲特和芒格的决策方式、认知能力或情感纪律，都是巴菲特优势业绩的互补。特别是芒格这位投资和哲学大师，对于巴菲特的影响，都是巴菲特优异业绩的重要行为因素。\n芒格在2014年，定义过巴菲特成功的四个因素：1. 巴菲特的结构性的个人魅力特征，2. 伯克希尔的结构性的决策体系，3. 好的运气，4. 一些股东的、其他仰慕者的、包括新闻界中的一些人的怪异而又激烈的传染性的奉献精神。\n在我看来，不管是上述的因素，还是巴菲特擅长的投资框架，都能减少过度自信偏见（Over-Confident Bias）对投资决策的影响。过度自信偏见是指我们对判断的主观信心相对高于实际客观确定的情况，过度自信包含三个方面，即过度估计（Over Estimation），过度放置（Over Placement）和过度精确（Over Precision）。\n尽管不同类型的过度自信的后果并不相同，但它们的共同点是：会长久和持续地导致错误的财务和其他决策。\n一些研究表明，过度自信不仅是金融市场交易员的普遍弱点，关键是这些身经百战的交易员对这个弱点经常会熟视无睹，因为过度自信这个偏见，深深的根植于人类的潜意识，常被称为“所有偏见的根源”。\n从巴菲特和芒格的文字和演讲中，我们能发现他们敏锐地意识到了过度自信这个所有偏见的根源，并对其非常的小心谨慎，采取一系列的手段，避免或者尽量最小化过度自信对决策的不良影响。就像芒格所说的：\n\n “人们长期错误地评估自己的知识范围，这是人性最基本的特征之一。知道自己的能力范围，是人类要做的最困难的事情之一。知道自己不知道的东西，对生活和业务而言，比变得出色更有用。”\n\n写在最后\n38年间，巴菲特和芒格一起，获得了年化超20%的收益，累计上涨1100多倍，业绩远远优于本来表现还就不错的标普500指数。巴菲特的收益有一部分得益于市场大环境的红利，但更多的归功于个人的选股实力，其中买入高质量、低波动且高价值的股票是其投资风格。\n巴菲特所获得超额收益也不是运气成分，想靠随机打败巴菲特几乎不现实。而芒格作为巴菲特最好的搭档，其个人魅力和性格，以及其伟大的哲学体系，是巴菲特优异历史业绩的行为导师。\n然而就算是强如巴菲特和芒格的组合，其业绩在历史上，也有时不时大幅度跑输大盘的时候。如果价值投资每时每刻都能跑赢大盘，那么必然会有无数的投资人涌入，从而导致价值投资策略失效。而正是有周期性的较大的跟踪误差，放大了投资人的不理性行为，才使得市场有效性假说不成立，为坚定的价值投资者在长周期上跑赢市场带来了机会。\n然而价值投资对市场天然的高跟踪误差，也是一把双刃剑。100个价值投资者有100个相信价值投资的理由，也有100个践行价值投资却无法忍受跟踪误差而失败的惨痛经历。作为一个价值投资者，我们需要持有被华尔街无穷鄙视的股票，我们需要远离喧闹浮躁的神股评，我们需要在市场的大波动中坚定信念，我们更需要有足够大的勇气穿越价值投资的长周期。\n以此，共勉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835733147,"gmtCreate":1629743259689,"gmtModify":1676530118050,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835733147","repostId":"2161772849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2161772849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629740700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161772849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 01:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a \"rising chorus\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161772849","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800...","content":"<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Monday (August 23rd), the US Dollar Index continued to fall in the US market, and refreshed as low as 93.01 on a new day, due to profit-taking caused by market doubts about the direction of US monetary policy; The fall of the US dollar and the worries caused by the raging COVID-19 pandemic boosted gold, and spot gold finally broke through the $1,800 mark, up $30 from the daily low; The crude oil market was boosted by the weakening of the US dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China. U.S. WTI crude oil rose sharply by 6%; The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, with the Dow rising 300 points or 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1.6%. As COVID-19 pandemic continues to counterattack, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of tapering quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>The data released by the United States during the day is mixed: the United States in August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The initial value of the service PMI recorded 55.2, the lowest since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 61.2 in August from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>Agency commentary said that U.S. business activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August on the back of raw material shortages, labor shortages and rising new crown cases. The pullback in PMIs this month highlights the extent to which supply chain disruptions have hit companies already struggling to meet demand. Service suppliers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and securing supply.</p><p><strong>However, another data released later performed strongly: the U.S. existing home sales data in July was 5.99 million, compared with the expected 5.81 million, and the previous value was revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to agency comments, existing home sales in the United States increased for the second consecutive month in July, as house prices fell from the previous month's record level due to moderate improvement in inventory. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales from last year's 14-year high may be over.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday, recording its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week, as doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy triggered profit-taking.</p><p>Riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weaker dollar, all of which rose more than 0.5%.</p><p>The US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering pandemic-era stimulus before Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In the U.S. market, the US Dollar Index, which measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01. It hit a high of 93.73 last Friday, the highest level since early November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Friday that if the virus hurts the economy, he may reconsider whether it is necessary to start tapering bond purchases early. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Fed official to say that tapering should be made as soon as possible, and his view showed that the hawks of the Fed wavered before the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>\"Kaplan said he could adjust his view on asset purchases if cases of the Delta variant continue to rise, so the Fed's dovish comments weighed on the dollar as rising concerns about Delta were bad for the dollar,\" a Japanese bank trader said.</p><p>Some analysts believe further spread of the variant could derail the Federal Reserve's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program by year-end.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the timeline for the Federal Reserve to scale back its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. The event takes place on Thursdays and Fridays. The Fed had originally decided to hold its meetings in a mixture of virtual and in-person formats, but last Friday decided to go all virtual given rising virus risks.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his speech for clues on the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>Nomura Securities analyst Amemiya said in a note that Chairman Powell's speech will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\" which \"may suggest that his speech may be more short-term.\"</p><p>Amemiya added: \"Given the deterioration of recent data releases and the pandemic situation, some of the risks we see Powell focusing on are increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID cases.\" \"At the very least, we think recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a tapering in December, although the FOMC favors a November announcement ahead of its July meeting.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial</a>Group strategists said in a report, \"Risk aversion will support the dollar. Although a cautious Fed should narrow the gains of the dollar, given the rising risk of novel coronavirus pneumonia, we need to make some adjustments to the year-end foreign exchange forecast to show that the depreciation of the dollar is reduced.\"</p><p>Gold prices were boosted as the dollar retreated and worries lingered that the intensification of the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia could hinder global economic growth.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, setting a new daily high of $1,806.37, an increase of $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(Spot gold 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, pulling back from a nine-and-a-half-month high last week, sending gold prices lower for other currency holders.</p><p>\"The dollar weakened slightly, offsetting the impact of higher yields and helping gold prices,\" said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the near term, we don't expect much to change as we wait for Jackson Hole to get a sign of whether the Fed is heading towards tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Gold prices will continue to move \"moderately higher\" on a weakening dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets, analysts said in a research note.</p><p>\"But for gold to move significantly higher, there will have to be a general safe-haven event, such as a resurgence of inflation fears, which will trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges,\" they said.</p><p>Oil jumped, ending its worst seven-day losing streak for crude prices since 2019, as the dollar pulled back and traders saw the recent sell-off as overdone.</p><p><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark of U.S. crude oil, are now up $3.65, trading at $65.79 a barrel, an increase of 5.87%. Earlier in the day, oil prices rose more than 6% to hit an intraday high of $66.00 a barrel, the best one-day gain since November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(WTI crude oil futures 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The sharp rise marks a turnaround for the contract from last week's nearly 9% drop, its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and its second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed last Friday at its lowest level since May 20.</p><p>Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose 5%, or $3.20, to $68.38 a barrel on Monday, after the week when oil prices hit their worst level since October 2020.</p><p>\"The news of zero new Chinese cases certainly provides a tailwind as it adds a glimmer of light at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic tunnel, bringing a breath of fresh air to the demand pattern,\" noted Blue Line Futures analysts. \"Moreover, the dollar has pulled back from recent highs, providing broad support to commodity markets.\"</p><p>Oil prices fell after fears of a slowdown in demand amid the spread of the Delta variant in Novel Coronavirus, leading to new lockdowns in countries including Japanese and New Zealand. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also showed an increase in gasoline inventories and increased production by U.S. producers.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms say the sell-off looks overdone.</p><p>\"We view price weakness as excessive and believe it has more to do with the psychology of market participants than with the deterioration of fundamental data,\" Commerzbank analysts noted.</p><p>U.S. stocks were higher in early trading Monday after a volatile week for U.S. stocks as investors focused on a key event that could hint at a tapering of stimulus package by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><strong>The Dow Jones gained 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Source: CNBC)</p><p>Major stock indexes are starting to recover after a week of losses as investors grow concerned that a possible move by the Federal Reserve to pull back monetary stimulus could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow fell 1.1% last week and the S&P 500 dropped nearly 0.6%, ending a two-week winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler, said in a note: \"We suspect that upcoming changes in monetary policy, the shift in growth versus value, and the upward trajectory of novel coronavirus pneumonia cases are challenging investor confidence.\"</p><p>Major indexes are set to modest gains in August. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of private wealth management, said, \"August has historically been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are currently worried.\"</p><p>\"The rise in cases in novel coronavirus pneumonia and the downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on vacation.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>Gold</li><li>US Stock Market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Existing Home Sales</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a \"rising chorus\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a \"rising chorus\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-24 01:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Monday (August 23rd), the US Dollar Index continued to fall in the US market, and refreshed as low as 93.01 on a new day, due to profit-taking caused by market doubts about the direction of US monetary policy; The fall of the US dollar and the worries caused by the raging COVID-19 pandemic boosted gold, and spot gold finally broke through the $1,800 mark, up $30 from the daily low; The crude oil market was boosted by the weakening of the US dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China. U.S. WTI crude oil rose sharply by 6%; The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, with the Dow rising 300 points or 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1.6%. As COVID-19 pandemic continues to counterattack, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of tapering quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>The data released by the United States during the day is mixed: the United States in August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The initial value of the service PMI recorded 55.2, the lowest since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 61.2 in August from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>Agency commentary said that U.S. business activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August on the back of raw material shortages, labor shortages and rising new crown cases. The pullback in PMIs this month highlights the extent to which supply chain disruptions have hit companies already struggling to meet demand. Service suppliers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and securing supply.</p><p><strong>However, another data released later performed strongly: the U.S. existing home sales data in July was 5.99 million, compared with the expected 5.81 million, and the previous value was revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to agency comments, existing home sales in the United States increased for the second consecutive month in July, as house prices fell from the previous month's record level due to moderate improvement in inventory. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales from last year's 14-year high may be over.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday, recording its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week, as doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy triggered profit-taking.</p><p>Riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weaker dollar, all of which rose more than 0.5%.</p><p>The US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering pandemic-era stimulus before Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In the U.S. market, the US Dollar Index, which measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01. It hit a high of 93.73 last Friday, the highest level since early November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Friday that if the virus hurts the economy, he may reconsider whether it is necessary to start tapering bond purchases early. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Fed official to say that tapering should be made as soon as possible, and his view showed that the hawks of the Fed wavered before the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>\"Kaplan said he could adjust his view on asset purchases if cases of the Delta variant continue to rise, so the Fed's dovish comments weighed on the dollar as rising concerns about Delta were bad for the dollar,\" a Japanese bank trader said.</p><p>Some analysts believe further spread of the variant could derail the Federal Reserve's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program by year-end.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the timeline for the Federal Reserve to scale back its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. The event takes place on Thursdays and Fridays. The Fed had originally decided to hold its meetings in a mixture of virtual and in-person formats, but last Friday decided to go all virtual given rising virus risks.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his speech for clues on the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>Nomura Securities analyst Amemiya said in a note that Chairman Powell's speech will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\" which \"may suggest that his speech may be more short-term.\"</p><p>Amemiya added: \"Given the deterioration of recent data releases and the pandemic situation, some of the risks we see Powell focusing on are increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID cases.\" \"At the very least, we think recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a tapering in December, although the FOMC favors a November announcement ahead of its July meeting.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial</a>Group strategists said in a report, \"Risk aversion will support the dollar. Although a cautious Fed should narrow the gains of the dollar, given the rising risk of novel coronavirus pneumonia, we need to make some adjustments to the year-end foreign exchange forecast to show that the depreciation of the dollar is reduced.\"</p><p>Gold prices were boosted as the dollar retreated and worries lingered that the intensification of the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia could hinder global economic growth.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, setting a new daily high of $1,806.37, an increase of $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(Spot gold 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, pulling back from a nine-and-a-half-month high last week, sending gold prices lower for other currency holders.</p><p>\"The dollar weakened slightly, offsetting the impact of higher yields and helping gold prices,\" said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the near term, we don't expect much to change as we wait for Jackson Hole to get a sign of whether the Fed is heading towards tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Gold prices will continue to move \"moderately higher\" on a weakening dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets, analysts said in a research note.</p><p>\"But for gold to move significantly higher, there will have to be a general safe-haven event, such as a resurgence of inflation fears, which will trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges,\" they said.</p><p>Oil jumped, ending its worst seven-day losing streak for crude prices since 2019, as the dollar pulled back and traders saw the recent sell-off as overdone.</p><p><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark of U.S. crude oil, are now up $3.65, trading at $65.79 a barrel, an increase of 5.87%. Earlier in the day, oil prices rose more than 6% to hit an intraday high of $66.00 a barrel, the best one-day gain since November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(WTI crude oil futures 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The sharp rise marks a turnaround for the contract from last week's nearly 9% drop, its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and its second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed last Friday at its lowest level since May 20.</p><p>Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose 5%, or $3.20, to $68.38 a barrel on Monday, after the week when oil prices hit their worst level since October 2020.</p><p>\"The news of zero new Chinese cases certainly provides a tailwind as it adds a glimmer of light at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic tunnel, bringing a breath of fresh air to the demand pattern,\" noted Blue Line Futures analysts. \"Moreover, the dollar has pulled back from recent highs, providing broad support to commodity markets.\"</p><p>Oil prices fell after fears of a slowdown in demand amid the spread of the Delta variant in Novel Coronavirus, leading to new lockdowns in countries including Japanese and New Zealand. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also showed an increase in gasoline inventories and increased production by U.S. producers.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms say the sell-off looks overdone.</p><p>\"We view price weakness as excessive and believe it has more to do with the psychology of market participants than with the deterioration of fundamental data,\" Commerzbank analysts noted.</p><p>U.S. stocks were higher in early trading Monday after a volatile week for U.S. stocks as investors focused on a key event that could hint at a tapering of stimulus package by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><strong>The Dow Jones gained 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Source: CNBC)</p><p>Major stock indexes are starting to recover after a week of losses as investors grow concerned that a possible move by the Federal Reserve to pull back monetary stimulus could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow fell 1.1% last week and the S&P 500 dropped nearly 0.6%, ending a two-week winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler, said in a note: \"We suspect that upcoming changes in monetary policy, the shift in growth versus value, and the upward trajectory of novel coronavirus pneumonia cases are challenging investor confidence.\"</p><p>Major indexes are set to modest gains in August. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of private wealth management, said, \"August has historically been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are currently worried.\"</p><p>\"The rise in cases in novel coronavirus pneumonia and the downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on vacation.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>Gold</li><li>US Stock Market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Existing Home Sales</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062913689736.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161772849","content_text":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800美元大关，较日低拉升30美元；原油市场则受到美元走软以及中国零新增确诊病例的提振，美国WTI原油大幅上涨6%；美股三大股指齐涨，其中道指上涨300点或0.8%，纳指则上涨1.6%。在新冠疫情持续反扑之际，美联储将于本周稍晚在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行年度研讨会。美联储主席鲍威尔的经济展望演讲和缩减量化宽松的时间等备受关注。美国日内公布的数据良莠不齐：美国8月Markit服务业PMI初值录得55.2，创去年12月以来新低。 美国8月份制造业PMI初值从7月份的63.4降至61.2。机构评论称，美国企业活动继续放缓，在原材料短缺、劳动力短缺和新冠病例增加的背景下，8月份的增长放缓至八个月低点。本月PMI的回落凸显出供应链中断对已经难以满足需求的企业的打击程度。服务供应商和制造商继续面临吸引工人和获得供应的挑战。不过随后公布的另一项数据表现强劲：美国7月成屋销售数据为599万户，预期581万户，前值修正为587万户。机构点评称，美国7月成屋销售连续第二个月增加，因库存温和改善，房价较前月纪录水准回落。销售额的增长表明，从去年的14年高点来看，今年的销售额下降趋势可能已经结束。美元周一全线下跌，上周录得逾两个月来最大单周升幅，因对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐。澳元、挪威克朗和加元等风险较高的货币是美元走软的主要受益者，这些货币的涨幅均超过了0.5%。美元指数上周触及九个月高点，较5月低点上涨近5%，因投资者进一步押注美联储将先于欧洲和日本开始缩减疫情时期的刺激政策。美市盘中，衡量美元兑其他主要货币表现的美元指数下跌近0.5%，至93.01，上周五兴触及93.73高点，为自去年11月初以来的最高水平。（美元指数30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）但达拉斯联储主席卡普兰上周五表示，如果病毒损害经济，他可能会重新考虑是否有必要提前开始缩减购债规模。卡普兰是知名鹰派人士。卡普兰是第一个表示应该尽早缩债的美联储官员，其看法表明在杰克逊霍尔会议召开前，美联储鹰派有所动摇。“卡普兰表示，如果德尔塔变种病例持续增加，他可能调整对资产购买的看法，因此美联储的鸽派言论打压美元，因对德尔塔的担忧升温对美元不利，”一家日本银行的交易员称。一些分析师认为，该变体的进一步扩散可能会破坏美联储在年底前缩减其大流行时期刺激计划的计划。交易员正急切地等待杰克逊霍尔研讨会，以寻找美联储缩减每月1200亿美元债券购买计划时间表的线索。该活动在周四和周五进行。美联储原本决定以虚拟和现场混合的方式举行会议，但鉴于病毒风险不断上升，上周五决定全部采用虚拟方式。美联储主席鲍威尔将在会议上讨论经济前景，交易商将仔细分析他的讲话，以寻求有关政策收紧时机和步伐的线索。鲍威尔迄今一直在淡化德尔塔事件的影响。野村证券分析师Amemiya在一份报告中称，鲍威尔主席的演讲将以“经济展望”为题，“可能暗示他的演讲可能更注重短期”。Amemiya补充说:“鉴于最近公布的数据的恶化和大流行形势，我们看到鲍威尔关注的一些风险是，由于最新的新冠病例激增，不确定性增加。”“至少，我们认为美联储官员最近的言论支持了我们的观点，即美联储将在12月宣布缩减购债规模，尽管FOMC倾向于在7月会议之前在11月宣布。”三菱日联金融集团策略师在一份报告中称，“风险规避将支撑美元。尽管谨慎的美联储应缩小美元的涨幅，但鉴于新冠肺炎风险上升，我们需要对年底外汇预测进行一些调整，以显示美元贬值幅度减小。”随着美元回落，市场对新冠肺炎疫情加剧可能阻碍全球经济增长的担忧挥之不去，金价受到提振上涨。日内稍早，现货金冲破1800美元大关，刷新日高至1806.37美元，较日低拉升30美元。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）美元指数下跌0.3%，从上周九个半月的高点回落，令其他货币持有者的黄金价格下跌。“美元小幅走软，抵消了收益率上升的影响，并扶助金价，”盛宝银行分析师Ole Hansen表示。“短期内，我们预计不会有太大的变化，因为我们正在等待杰克逊霍尔得到一个迹象，即美联储是否正走向缩减规模，或者最新的病毒爆发是否已经给这些预期踩了刹车。”高盛分析师在一份研究报告中表示，由于美元走弱和新兴市场需求复苏，金价将继续“温和走高”。“但黄金若要大幅走高，就必须出现普遍的避险事件，例如通胀担忧卷土重来，这将引发对防御性通胀对冲的需求，”他们表示。油价跳涨，结束了自2019年以来原油价格最糟糕的连续7天下跌，原因是美元回落，交易员认为近期的抛售过度。美国原油基准西德克萨斯中质(WTI)原油期货价格现上涨3.65美元，交投于65.79美元/桶，涨幅5.87%。当天早些时候，油价一度上涨逾6%，触及66.00美元/桶的盘中高点，创下去年11月以来的最佳单日涨幅。（WTI原油期货30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）这一大幅上涨标志着该合约从上周下跌近9%的情况开始好转，这是自2020年10月以来最差的一周表现，也是三周来第二次出现负增长。WTI原油上周五收于5月20日以来的最低水平。周一，国际基准布伦特原油价格上涨了5%，至68.38美元/桶，涨幅为3.20美元，此前一周油价创下了自2020年10月以来的最差水平。蓝线期货分析师指出:“中国零新增病例的消息无疑提供了一股顺风，因为它在新冠疫情隧道的尽头增添了一丝曙光，给需求格局带来了一丝新鲜空气。”“此外，美元已从近期高点回落，为大宗商品市场提供了广泛支撑。”此前，随着新冠病毒德尔塔变种的传播，人们担心需求会放缓，导致日本和新西兰等国实施新一轮封锁，油价随之下跌。此外，作为全球最大原油进口国的中国疲弱的经济数据也给油价带来了压力。美国最新库存报告还显示，汽油库存增加，美国生产商的产量也有所增加。但一些华尔街公司表示，抛售看起来有些过头了。德国商业银行分析师指出:“我们认为价格疲软过度，并认为这更多地与市场参与者的心理有关，而不是与基本面数据的恶化有关。”美国股市周一早盘走高，此前美国股市经历了动荡的一周，投资者关注美联储可能暗示缩减刺激计划的关键事件。道琼斯指数上涨300点，涨幅0.8%。标准普尔500指数上涨1.0%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.6%。（图源：CNBC）由于投资者越来越担心美联储可能撤出货币刺激措施的举动可能会减缓经济复苏，主要股指在经历了一周的下跌后开始回升。道指上周下跌1.1%，标准普尔500指数下跌近0.6%，结束了连续两周的上涨势头。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上周下跌0.7%。Piper Sandler技术市场策略师Craig Johnson在一份报告中表示:“我们怀疑，即将到来的货币政策变化、增长与价值的转变以及新冠肺炎病例的上升轨迹，正在挑战投资者的信心。”8月份主要股指将小幅上涨。本月迄今，标准普尔500指数上涨了1.1%，而道指上涨了0.5%，纳斯达克指数上涨了0.3%。瑞银私人财富管理董事总经理Rod von Lipsey称，“8月历来是市场波动较大的月份，今年也不例外，投资者目前忧心重重。”“新冠肺炎病例的上升和阿富汗的螺旋式下降正在制造一场信心危机，而此时许多投资者正在度假。”\n\n\n\n\n\n                                                    美元\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    黄金\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美国股市\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    原油\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美联储\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    鲍威尔\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    成屋销售\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美国PMI\n                                                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20:06","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170169817","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持","content":"<p>On August 1, Hengteng Network announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% equity of Hengteng Network for a total consideration of HK $3.25 billion and HK $3.20 per share. Among them, Buyer 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% shares of Hengteng Network. As of the date of the announcement, Buyer 1 holds approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-01 20:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 1, Hengteng Network announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% equity of Hengteng Network for a total consideration of HK $3.25 billion and HK $3.20 per share. Among them, Buyer 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% shares of Hengteng Network. As of the date of the announcement, Buyer 1 holds approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大","00136":"中国儒意"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170169817","content_text":"8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约16.90%；而中国恒大持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约37.55%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00136":0.9,"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173312017,"gmtCreate":1626616074139,"gmtModify":1703762350161,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173312017","repostId":"1134210398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134210398","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业与投资专业门户","home_visible":1,"media_name":"投资界","id":"1096839439","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3"},"pubTimestamp":1626603399,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134210398?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Lei Jun invested in 3 beauty instrument companies in one go","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134210398","media":"投资界","summary":"美容仪，这个看似小小的赛道正诞生一笔笔融资。\n\n雷军又出手了，投的赛道你可能想不到。\n投资界获悉，美容护理品牌inFace刚刚宣布获数千万元人民币Pre-A轮融资，由小米集团、顺为资本领投。令人惊讶的","content":"<p>Beauty instrument, this seemingly small track is giving birth to financing. Lei Jun shot again, and you may not think of the track he voted for.</p><p>The investment community has learned that inFace, a beauty care brand, has just announced that it has received tens of millions of yuan in Pre-A round financing, led by Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital. Surprisingly, this is the third beauty hardware company that Xiaomi has invested in this year. Previously, it also invested in Kesimei, which developed hair growth caps, and Oxygen, which launched face washing instruments.</p><p>At this point,<b>Xiaomi's beauty equipment map</b>Gradually formed, covering many categories such as cleansing, anti-aging, firming, acne removal, skin purification, hair removal, etc. Lei Jun, who is good at making hardware, finally found a way to earn money from girls.</p><p>Beauty instrument, this humble track is on fire, and VC/PE is pouring in: Just this month, the beauty instrument brand Feimo received the exclusive investment from IDG Capital, which is the third round of financing since the establishment of Feimo; The cutting-edge brand BIOLAB Tingyan and others also completed a new round of financing led by Tiantu Investment this year.... More and more domestic Internet celebrity beauty instrument brands are being born to seize this profitable market.</p><p>Beauty is an eternal cause, and hundreds of millions of beauty-loving women in China are creating myths of making wealth. In VC's words, this is an outlet that will never disappear, and the next hot spot will always be born.</p><p><b>Lei Jun makes another move</b></p><p><b>A few days ago, I voted for a beauty instrument</b></p><p>Lei Jun quietly invested in a beauty instrument company.</p><p>This stems from a financing news-on July 16, the beauty care brand inFace recently received tens of millions of RMB in Pre-A round financing, led by Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital. Additional investment from strategic partners. It is reported that inFace is still actively preparing for the next round of financing.</p><p>What is the origin of inFace? Founded in 2017, inFace is a Xiaomi ecological chain company Migu<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Its personal home beauty care brand. Since its establishment, the company has provided users with a series of household beauty instruments such as cleaning, nursing, and anti-aging, as well as overall solutions for home beauty care. The main products include facial cleansing instruments, blackhead instruments, straight curly hair combs and small bubble skin rejuvenation instruments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afef2cceb591e447fcd8e8958fa434e4\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Behind this company engaged in beautiful business is<b>A male founder--Xiao Yin</b>。 After graduating from Harbin Normal University, Xiao Yin first worked in an education company in Beijing step by step. Then, he joined Hangzhou Hongxing Electronics Co., Ltd., a semiconductor company, as the sales director. During his tenure as an executive at Hongxing Electronics, he was mainly responsible for the company's strategy formulation, team formation and project management, and met a group of like-minded friends in the field of electronic manufacturing.</p><p>As long as he has time, Xiao Yin gets together with his friends to study entrepreneurship. Wireless charging, universal remote control... have all been included in their business plan, but they have never been able to finalize the final direction. A business trip in the United States made Xiao Yin find her goal-a personal care beauty device. At that time, he accidentally saw a brush cleanser with a cost of only a few hundred yuan, and actually bought several thousand yuan. \"Although beauty care products have a certain brand premium profit, it is not so exaggerated.\" Xiao Yin once shared his surprising discovery.</p><p>In 2017, Xiao Yin came to Shenzhen, where the supply chain is relatively concentrated, to start a business. In the first year of starting a business, Migu Intelligent had no products, no revenue, and only 4 members; After nearly a year of research and development and polishing, in January 2018, Migu Intelligent's first personal care and beauty product-inFace Sonic Ion Cleanser was put on Xiaomi Crowdfunding. In just two weeks, the number of supporters of this product reached 13,000, the crowdfunding amount was 3,414,500 yuan, and the achievement rate exceeded 600%, making it a crowdfunding explosion of Xiaomi.</p><p>After winning the first battle, Xiao Yin began to consider which direction the next product would go. To this end, he also went to a dermatologist to understand the causes of skin problems. \"After I really entered this industry, I realized that skin is so exquisite.\" So, Xiao Yin continued to lead the team to study product design and technology.</p><p>In the following two years, Migu Intelligent successively launched products such as inFace Sonic Cleanser, inFace Golden Beauty Bar, and inFace Blackhead Instrument. Among them, the sales of inFace blackhead instrument exceeded 10 million in 14 days after its launch, and it was recognized by more than 110,000 people, becoming a new generation of online celebrity products.</p><p>In the four years since its establishment, Migu Intelligent's product line includes hair products such as hair straightening combs and hair removal instruments, skin products such as facial cleansing instruments, and anti-aging products such as radio frequency instruments and eye beauty instruments. In this year's 618 event, inFace hair straightening comb ranked first in the trading list of styling comb/ionic comb/electric comb category.</p><p><b>You may not imagine that another track is hot</b></p><p><b>VC/PE queuing for admission</b></p><p>Beauty instrument, this seemingly small track is giving birth to financing, you may not know,<b>inFace is the third beauty instrument company invested by Lei Jun this year.</b></p><p>In January this year, COSBEAUTY, a brand focusing on medical-grade household health consumer goods, announced the completion of the B + round of financing of nearly 100 million yuan, led by Xiaomi, followed by Shunwei Capital and Xinzhiyuan. As early as 2017, Shenzhen Venture Capital led the company's B round of financing of nearly 100 million yuan. Simei is also a developer focusing on the research and development of women's beauty and health electronic products. It was established in May 2013. At present, the company's representative products include hair growth caps, ultrasonic ion beauty instruments, hair removal instruments, skin detectors, etc.</p><p>Not long ago, Ningbo Qingmei Electric Technology Co., Ltd., established in 2019, received strategic financing from Xiaomi Group. The specific investment amount has not yet been disclosed. According to the official website, the company's main brand is Oxygen, which focuses on the water purification segment, and its product is mainly a skin-nourishing and face-washing water softener.</p><p>In fact, as early as 2017, Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital began to deploy in the field of beauty instruments. In November 2017, AMIRO, an optoelectronic beauty brand, received tens of millions of Pre-A rounds of financing led by Xiaomi and Shunwei Capital. Previously, Zhenge Fund and Firebird jointly participated in its angel round of financing. In July 2015, Wang Nianou, who graduated from the School of Computer Science of Zhejiang University majoring in industrial design, founded the brand.</p><p>In the first few years, the team has been conquering the core light source technology and released several mid-to high-priced high-definition solar mirror products. In the following years, the team successively expanded the red light wave hair removal instrument for the body line and the \"time machine\" radio frequency beauty instrument for the beauty line.</p><p>At the end of last year, AMIRO officially announced a 100 million yuan Series B financing. This financing, not only the old shareholder Shunwei Capital continued to follow, but also the blessing of investment institutions such as Dachen Caizhi, Honghui Capital, Celtic Asia, and Aoniu Capital.</p><p>In 2021, both VC/PE will emerge on this track. In March, BIOLAB, a light medical beauty and skin care brand, completed tens of millions of Pre-A rounds of financing, led by Tiantu Investment and followed by Baojiehui Innovation Consumption Fund. Previously, Tingyan had received angel round investment from Baojiehui Innovation Consumption Fund. Positioning as a light medical beauty skin care brand, BIOLAB's listening research product line is mainly divided into light medical beauty technology skin care products aimed at home scenarios, such as household water-light oxygen injection meter, freeze-dried essence stock solution, etc., as well as daily functional products such as repair masks and cleaning gel. wait.</p><p>In July, IDG Capital exclusively invested in the beauty instrument brand Feimo. This house<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>Behind it is a post-80s designer Spark Cui. In 2005, he entered Jiangnan University to study industrial design; Two years later, he was admitted to Inhofen University of Technology in the Netherlands, majoring in industrial design. After returning home, Spark Cui chose to enter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Philips</a>Further study in the research institute, responsible for advanced research and development. During this period, his products have won many international industrial design awards such as Red Dot.</p><p>In 2017, Spark Cui joined hands with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Dr. Martijn ten Bhömer of the Research Institute, co-founded FEMO. Since its establishment in 2017, Feimo has successively launched a variety of beauty and skin care products such as facial cleanser, water light meter, water light essence, and skin care. Its best-selling star Feimojia water-light beauty instrument has become the top 1 single product sales of Tmall water-light instrument in 2020.</p><p>From Lei Jun to domestic VC/PE, they are all investing in this small beauty equipment.</p><p><b>Why are beauty instruments so popular?</b></p><p><b>Generation Z supports the myths of beauty and wealth creation</b></p><p>When Generation Z began to \"resist old age\", wealth myths were born one after another.</p><p>According to the Consumption Report of Newcomers in Chinese Society, the post-90s and post-00s consumers began to make fancy combinations of beauty instruments, medical beauty, health products, sports and fitness, etc. to resist the anxiety and anxiety caused by \"aging\".</p><p>At present, China's beauty instrument market is growing rapidly. According to the beauty equipment report released by market research company Mintel in November 2020, although consumer purchasing power was affected by the epidemic in the first quarter of 2020, after returning to normal, the beauty equipment market achieved rapid growth again. Mintel predicts that the total sales of China's beauty equipment market in 2020 will increase by 21% year-on-year, reaching 11.5 billion yuan.</p><p>The \"2020 Online Home Beauty Instrument Consumption Insight Report\" jointly released by CBNData and Tmall International shows a data that further illustrates this point: among the typical consumer groups of home beauty instruments, 30% of Generation Z choose to buy beauty instruments, upgrade the equipment, and enjoy the fun of lying down and becoming beautiful at home.</p><p>This year, the continuous surge of the medical aesthetics sector has lasted for three months, and the three leaders in the upstream of the industrial chain-<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300896\">Amic</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688366\">Haohai Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688363\">Huaxi Biotech</a></b>, the increase has reached 81%, 104%, and 72% respectively, and even more and more listed companies in the secondary market have begun to label the concept of medical beauty, and the stock price has soared.</p><p>In the medical beauty industry, the huge profits of hyaluronic acid are well known, and recently, \"you can become beautiful after drinking it\"<b>Edible hyaluronic acid</b>The trend is rising. On January 7th this year, the National Health and Wellness Commission announced that sodium hyaluronate was approved as a new food additive ingredient, and players from all sides were moved by the wind. Bloomage Bio quickly launched the first hyaluronic acid drinking water brand \"Shuijiquan\", and various food companies and health care products companies also took action. For example, Hankou No.2 Factory launched the first oral hyaluronic acid gummies launched by WonderLab, a meal replacement food brand...</p><p>In addition to beauty instruments, entering 2021,<b>Financing of skin care and cosmetics</b>It's even faster. According to incomplete statistics, in the first half of this year alone, there were more than 45 financings in the beauty and personal care category. Sequoia China, Hillhouse Ventures, IDG Capital, Coatue, Wuyuan Capital, CPE Yuanfeng, Tiantu Investment, Source Code Capital, Hony VC/PE such as Venture Capital, Qingliu Capital, Sinovation Ventures, and ZhenFund have entered the market one after another, and even<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, ByteDance, Bilibili, etc. are all betting heavily.</p><p>In January this year, Ximuyuan completed tens of millions of yuan in Series B financing, with investors Coatue and Hony Venture Capital. This is the sixth consecutive round of financing it has obtained in more than a year, and the popularity is conceivable. Ximuyuan was established in 2019, and its previous investors also included Zhen Fund, Snow Lake Capital, etc.</p><p>Men's skin care brand Liran also completed three rounds of financing this year. In January this year, M31 Capital, Wuyuan Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHI.UK\">SIG</a>With Hupu's 150 million yuan in Series B financing, the amount of Series B + 3 months later was 300 million. The new shareholders include Bilibili and Red Dot China. Just this month, Bilibili increased its investment again. And its frequency and ease also drives the whole<b>Investment tide in men's skincare</b>, such as Tabula Rasa, Blue Series, etc.</p><p>This is the product of the current vigorous face value economy. With the successful IPO of Perfect Diary in 2020, the light of domestic products of personal care and beauty have risen one by one. In this huge market, everyone has put on a scope and is carefully looking for the next Perfect Diary.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lei Jun invested in 3 beauty instrument companies in one go</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLei Jun invested in 3 beauty instrument companies in one go\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1096839439\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">投资界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 18:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beauty instrument, this seemingly small track is giving birth to financing. Lei Jun shot again, and you may not think of the track he voted for.</p><p>The investment community has learned that inFace, a beauty care brand, has just announced that it has received tens of millions of yuan in Pre-A round financing, led by Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital. Surprisingly, this is the third beauty hardware company that Xiaomi has invested in this year. Previously, it also invested in Kesimei, which developed hair growth caps, and Oxygen, which launched face washing instruments.</p><p>At this point,<b>Xiaomi's beauty equipment map</b>Gradually formed, covering many categories such as cleansing, anti-aging, firming, acne removal, skin purification, hair removal, etc. Lei Jun, who is good at making hardware, finally found a way to earn money from girls.</p><p>Beauty instrument, this humble track is on fire, and VC/PE is pouring in: Just this month, the beauty instrument brand Feimo received the exclusive investment from IDG Capital, which is the third round of financing since the establishment of Feimo; The cutting-edge brand BIOLAB Tingyan and others also completed a new round of financing led by Tiantu Investment this year.... More and more domestic Internet celebrity beauty instrument brands are being born to seize this profitable market.</p><p>Beauty is an eternal cause, and hundreds of millions of beauty-loving women in China are creating myths of making wealth. In VC's words, this is an outlet that will never disappear, and the next hot spot will always be born.</p><p><b>Lei Jun makes another move</b></p><p><b>A few days ago, I voted for a beauty instrument</b></p><p>Lei Jun quietly invested in a beauty instrument company.</p><p>This stems from a financing news-on July 16, the beauty care brand inFace recently received tens of millions of RMB in Pre-A round financing, led by Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital. Additional investment from strategic partners. It is reported that inFace is still actively preparing for the next round of financing.</p><p>What is the origin of inFace? Founded in 2017, inFace is a Xiaomi ecological chain company Migu<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Its personal home beauty care brand. Since its establishment, the company has provided users with a series of household beauty instruments such as cleaning, nursing, and anti-aging, as well as overall solutions for home beauty care. The main products include facial cleansing instruments, blackhead instruments, straight curly hair combs and small bubble skin rejuvenation instruments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afef2cceb591e447fcd8e8958fa434e4\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Behind this company engaged in beautiful business is<b>A male founder--Xiao Yin</b>。 After graduating from Harbin Normal University, Xiao Yin first worked in an education company in Beijing step by step. Then, he joined Hangzhou Hongxing Electronics Co., Ltd., a semiconductor company, as the sales director. During his tenure as an executive at Hongxing Electronics, he was mainly responsible for the company's strategy formulation, team formation and project management, and met a group of like-minded friends in the field of electronic manufacturing.</p><p>As long as he has time, Xiao Yin gets together with his friends to study entrepreneurship. Wireless charging, universal remote control... have all been included in their business plan, but they have never been able to finalize the final direction. A business trip in the United States made Xiao Yin find her goal-a personal care beauty device. At that time, he accidentally saw a brush cleanser with a cost of only a few hundred yuan, and actually bought several thousand yuan. \"Although beauty care products have a certain brand premium profit, it is not so exaggerated.\" Xiao Yin once shared his surprising discovery.</p><p>In 2017, Xiao Yin came to Shenzhen, where the supply chain is relatively concentrated, to start a business. In the first year of starting a business, Migu Intelligent had no products, no revenue, and only 4 members; After nearly a year of research and development and polishing, in January 2018, Migu Intelligent's first personal care and beauty product-inFace Sonic Ion Cleanser was put on Xiaomi Crowdfunding. In just two weeks, the number of supporters of this product reached 13,000, the crowdfunding amount was 3,414,500 yuan, and the achievement rate exceeded 600%, making it a crowdfunding explosion of Xiaomi.</p><p>After winning the first battle, Xiao Yin began to consider which direction the next product would go. To this end, he also went to a dermatologist to understand the causes of skin problems. \"After I really entered this industry, I realized that skin is so exquisite.\" So, Xiao Yin continued to lead the team to study product design and technology.</p><p>In the following two years, Migu Intelligent successively launched products such as inFace Sonic Cleanser, inFace Golden Beauty Bar, and inFace Blackhead Instrument. Among them, the sales of inFace blackhead instrument exceeded 10 million in 14 days after its launch, and it was recognized by more than 110,000 people, becoming a new generation of online celebrity products.</p><p>In the four years since its establishment, Migu Intelligent's product line includes hair products such as hair straightening combs and hair removal instruments, skin products such as facial cleansing instruments, and anti-aging products such as radio frequency instruments and eye beauty instruments. In this year's 618 event, inFace hair straightening comb ranked first in the trading list of styling comb/ionic comb/electric comb category.</p><p><b>You may not imagine that another track is hot</b></p><p><b>VC/PE queuing for admission</b></p><p>Beauty instrument, this seemingly small track is giving birth to financing, you may not know,<b>inFace is the third beauty instrument company invested by Lei Jun this year.</b></p><p>In January this year, COSBEAUTY, a brand focusing on medical-grade household health consumer goods, announced the completion of the B + round of financing of nearly 100 million yuan, led by Xiaomi, followed by Shunwei Capital and Xinzhiyuan. As early as 2017, Shenzhen Venture Capital led the company's B round of financing of nearly 100 million yuan. Simei is also a developer focusing on the research and development of women's beauty and health electronic products. It was established in May 2013. At present, the company's representative products include hair growth caps, ultrasonic ion beauty instruments, hair removal instruments, skin detectors, etc.</p><p>Not long ago, Ningbo Qingmei Electric Technology Co., Ltd., established in 2019, received strategic financing from Xiaomi Group. The specific investment amount has not yet been disclosed. According to the official website, the company's main brand is Oxygen, which focuses on the water purification segment, and its product is mainly a skin-nourishing and face-washing water softener.</p><p>In fact, as early as 2017, Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital began to deploy in the field of beauty instruments. In November 2017, AMIRO, an optoelectronic beauty brand, received tens of millions of Pre-A rounds of financing led by Xiaomi and Shunwei Capital. Previously, Zhenge Fund and Firebird jointly participated in its angel round of financing. In July 2015, Wang Nianou, who graduated from the School of Computer Science of Zhejiang University majoring in industrial design, founded the brand.</p><p>In the first few years, the team has been conquering the core light source technology and released several mid-to high-priced high-definition solar mirror products. In the following years, the team successively expanded the red light wave hair removal instrument for the body line and the \"time machine\" radio frequency beauty instrument for the beauty line.</p><p>At the end of last year, AMIRO officially announced a 100 million yuan Series B financing. This financing, not only the old shareholder Shunwei Capital continued to follow, but also the blessing of investment institutions such as Dachen Caizhi, Honghui Capital, Celtic Asia, and Aoniu Capital.</p><p>In 2021, both VC/PE will emerge on this track. In March, BIOLAB, a light medical beauty and skin care brand, completed tens of millions of Pre-A rounds of financing, led by Tiantu Investment and followed by Baojiehui Innovation Consumption Fund. Previously, Tingyan had received angel round investment from Baojiehui Innovation Consumption Fund. Positioning as a light medical beauty skin care brand, BIOLAB's listening research product line is mainly divided into light medical beauty technology skin care products aimed at home scenarios, such as household water-light oxygen injection meter, freeze-dried essence stock solution, etc., as well as daily functional products such as repair masks and cleaning gel. wait.</p><p>In July, IDG Capital exclusively invested in the beauty instrument brand Feimo. This house<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startups</a>Behind it is a post-80s designer Spark Cui. In 2005, he entered Jiangnan University to study industrial design; Two years later, he was admitted to Inhofen University of Technology in the Netherlands, majoring in industrial design. After returning home, Spark Cui chose to enter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Philips</a>Further study in the research institute, responsible for advanced research and development. During this period, his products have won many international industrial design awards such as Red Dot.</p><p>In 2017, Spark Cui joined hands with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Dr. Martijn ten Bhömer of the Research Institute, co-founded FEMO. Since its establishment in 2017, Feimo has successively launched a variety of beauty and skin care products such as facial cleanser, water light meter, water light essence, and skin care. Its best-selling star Feimojia water-light beauty instrument has become the top 1 single product sales of Tmall water-light instrument in 2020.</p><p>From Lei Jun to domestic VC/PE, they are all investing in this small beauty equipment.</p><p><b>Why are beauty instruments so popular?</b></p><p><b>Generation Z supports the myths of beauty and wealth creation</b></p><p>When Generation Z began to \"resist old age\", wealth myths were born one after another.</p><p>According to the Consumption Report of Newcomers in Chinese Society, the post-90s and post-00s consumers began to make fancy combinations of beauty instruments, medical beauty, health products, sports and fitness, etc. to resist the anxiety and anxiety caused by \"aging\".</p><p>At present, China's beauty instrument market is growing rapidly. According to the beauty equipment report released by market research company Mintel in November 2020, although consumer purchasing power was affected by the epidemic in the first quarter of 2020, after returning to normal, the beauty equipment market achieved rapid growth again. Mintel predicts that the total sales of China's beauty equipment market in 2020 will increase by 21% year-on-year, reaching 11.5 billion yuan.</p><p>The \"2020 Online Home Beauty Instrument Consumption Insight Report\" jointly released by CBNData and Tmall International shows a data that further illustrates this point: among the typical consumer groups of home beauty instruments, 30% of Generation Z choose to buy beauty instruments, upgrade the equipment, and enjoy the fun of lying down and becoming beautiful at home.</p><p>This year, the continuous surge of the medical aesthetics sector has lasted for three months, and the three leaders in the upstream of the industrial chain-<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300896\">Amic</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688366\">Haohai Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688363\">Huaxi Biotech</a></b>, the increase has reached 81%, 104%, and 72% respectively, and even more and more listed companies in the secondary market have begun to label the concept of medical beauty, and the stock price has soared.</p><p>In the medical beauty industry, the huge profits of hyaluronic acid are well known, and recently, \"you can become beautiful after drinking it\"<b>Edible hyaluronic acid</b>The trend is rising. On January 7th this year, the National Health and Wellness Commission announced that sodium hyaluronate was approved as a new food additive ingredient, and players from all sides were moved by the wind. Bloomage Bio quickly launched the first hyaluronic acid drinking water brand \"Shuijiquan\", and various food companies and health care products companies also took action. For example, Hankou No.2 Factory launched the first oral hyaluronic acid gummies launched by WonderLab, a meal replacement food brand...</p><p>In addition to beauty instruments, entering 2021,<b>Financing of skin care and cosmetics</b>It's even faster. According to incomplete statistics, in the first half of this year alone, there were more than 45 financings in the beauty and personal care category. Sequoia China, Hillhouse Ventures, IDG Capital, Coatue, Wuyuan Capital, CPE Yuanfeng, Tiantu Investment, Source Code Capital, Hony VC/PE such as Venture Capital, Qingliu Capital, Sinovation Ventures, and ZhenFund have entered the market one after another, and even<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, ByteDance, Bilibili, etc. are all betting heavily.</p><p>In January this year, Ximuyuan completed tens of millions of yuan in Series B financing, with investors Coatue and Hony Venture Capital. This is the sixth consecutive round of financing it has obtained in more than a year, and the popularity is conceivable. Ximuyuan was established in 2019, and its previous investors also included Zhen Fund, Snow Lake Capital, etc.</p><p>Men's skin care brand Liran also completed three rounds of financing this year. In January this year, M31 Capital, Wuyuan Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHI.UK\">SIG</a>With Hupu's 150 million yuan in Series B financing, the amount of Series B + 3 months later was 300 million. The new shareholders include Bilibili and Red Dot China. Just this month, Bilibili increased its investment again. And its frequency and ease also drives the whole<b>Investment tide in men's skincare</b>, such as Tabula Rasa, Blue Series, etc.</p><p>This is the product of the current vigorous face value economy. With the successful IPO of Perfect Diary in 2020, the light of domestic products of personal care and beauty have risen one by one. In this huge market, everyone has put on a scope and is carefully looking for the next Perfect Diary.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e8a0e70f95b899383eec04529a52345","relate_stocks":{"KC":"金山云","01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134210398","content_text":"美容仪，这个看似小小的赛道正诞生一笔笔融资。\n\n雷军又出手了，投的赛道你可能想不到。\n投资界获悉，美容护理品牌inFace刚刚宣布获数千万元人民币Pre-A轮融资，由小米集团、顺为资本领投。令人惊讶的是，这是小米今年投的第三家美容硬件公司，此前还投了研发生发帽的可思美和推出洗脸仪的氧芬。\n至此，小米的美容仪器版图逐渐形成，涵盖了洁面、抗衰、紧致、祛痘、净肤、脱毛等众多品类。擅长做硬件的雷军，终于找到方向赚起了女生的钱。\n美容仪，这个不起眼的赛道火了，VC/PE涌入：就在这个月，美容仪品牌飞莫拿到了IDG资本独家投资，这是飞莫成立以来的第3轮融资；新锐品牌BIOLAB听研等也在今年完成了由天图投资领投的新一轮融资.....越来越多国产网红美容仪品牌正在诞生，抢占这个暴利的市场。\n美丽是一项永恒的事业，中国数以亿计爱美女性正缔造一个个造富神话。用VC的话来说，这是一个永不消失的风口，永远有下一个热点诞生。\n雷军又出手\n几天前，投了一个美容仪\n雷军，悄悄投了一家美容仪公司。\n这源于一则融资消息——7月16日，美容护理品牌inFace近期获数千万元人民币Pre-A轮融资，由小米集团、顺为资本领投，上一轮投资方芯跑资本以及战略伙伴追加投资。据悉，inFace仍在积极筹备下一轮融资。\ninFace有何来头？创立于2017年，inFace，是小米生态链公司米谷智能旗下个人家用美护品牌。成立以来，公司为广大用户提供清洁、护理、抗初老等系列家用美容仪器及家庭美容护理整体解决方案，主打产品有洁面仪、黑头仪、直卷发梳和小气泡焕肤仪等。\n\n这家从事美丽事业的公司背后，却是一位男性创始人——肖音。从哈尔滨师范大学毕业后，肖音先是按部就班地在北京一家教育公司工作。而后，他进入半导体企业杭州鸿星电子有限公司，担任销售总监一职。在鸿星电子担任高管期间，他主要负责公司战略制定、团队组建和项目管理等方面工作，并在电子制造领域结识一群志趣相投的朋友。\n只要有时间，肖音便和朋友们聚在一起研究创业的事情。无线充电、万能遥控器……都曾列入过他们的创业计划表，但一直没能敲定最终方向。一次在美国的出差经历，让肖音找到了目标——个护美容仪。当时，他偶然看到一块成本只有几百元的毛刷洁面仪，竟然买到了几千元。“虽说美护产品有一定的品牌溢价利润，但也不至于这么夸张。”肖音曾分享了他的惊讶发现。\n2017年，肖音来到供应链相对集中的深圳开始创业。创业第一年，米谷智能没有产品，没有营收，仅有4名成员；经过接近一年的研发和打磨，2018年1月米谷智能首款个护美容产品——inFace声波离子洁面仪上架小米众筹。仅用两周时间，该款产品的支持人数高达1.3万人，众筹金额341.45万元，达成率超过600%，成为小米众筹爆款。\n初战告捷，肖音开始考虑下一款产品朝着哪个方向走。为此，他还特意去皮肤科专家，了解皮肤问题的缘由。“我真正进入到这个行业后，才知道皮肤有这么多讲究。”于是，肖音继续带着团队埋头研究产品的设计和技术。\n随后两年时间，米谷智能相继推出了inFace声波洁面仪、inFace黄金美容棒、inFace黑头仪等产品。其中，inFace黑头仪上线14天销售额破千万，获得了超11万人的认可，成为新一代网红产品。\n成立4年时间里，米谷智能的产品线包括直发梳、脱毛仪等毛发类产品、洁面仪等皮肤类产品以及射频仪、美眼仪等抗初老产品。在今年618活动中，inFace直发梳在造型梳/离子梳/电动梳品类交易榜中排名第一。\n你可能想象不到，又一条赛道火爆\nVC/PE排队入场\n美容仪，这个看似小小的赛道正诞生一笔笔融资，你可能不知道，inFace是雷军本年内投的第三家美容仪公司。\n今年1月，专注于医疗级家用健康消费品品牌COSBEAUTY可思美宣布完成B+轮近亿元融资，由小米领投，顺为资本、信之源跟投。早在2017年，深创投曾领投该公司B轮近亿元人民币融资。可思美也是一家专注研发女性美容健康类电子产品的开发商，成立于2013年5月。目前，公司代表产品有生发帽、超声波离子美容仪、脱毛仪、肌肤检测仪等。\n不久前，成立于2019年的宁波轻美电器科技有限公司获小米集团战略融资，具体投资额尚未披露。官网显示，该公司旗下主要品牌是专注净水细分领域的氧芬，其产品主要是一款养肤洗脸柔水仪。\n事实上，早在2017年小米集团和顺为资本便开始布局美容仪领域。2017年11月，光电美容品牌——AMIRO获得了由小米、顺为资本领投的千万级Pre-A轮融资，此前真格基金和太火鸟联合参与其天使轮融资。2015年7月，毕业于浙江大学计算机学院工业设计专业的王念欧创立了该品牌。\n刚刚开始的几年时间里，团队一直在攻克核心光源技术，发布了几款中高价档的高清日光镜产品。随后几年，该团队先后拓展了美体线的红光波脱毛仪和美容线的“时光机”射频美容仪。\n去年年底，AMIRO官宣了亿元级的B轮融资。这一次融资，不仅有老股东顺为资本继续跟随，还有达晨财智、弘晖资本、凯尔特亚洲、奥牛资本等投资机构的加持。\n2021年，VC/PE都涌现了这条赛道。3月，轻医美护肤品牌BIOLAB听研完成千万级Pre-A轮融资，由天图投资领投，宝捷会创新消费基金跟投。此前，听研曾获得来自宝捷会创新消费基金的天使轮投资。定位轻医美护肤品牌，BIOLAB听研产品线主要分为瞄准家用场景的轻医美科技护肤产品如家用水光注氧仪、冻干精华原液等，以及日常功效型产品如修护面膜、清洁啫喱等。\n7月，IDG资本独家投资了美容仪品牌飞莫。这家创业公司背后是一位80后设计师Spark Cui。2005年，他进入江南大学学习工业设计专业；两年后，又考入荷兰艾恩霍芬理工大学，研修工业设计专业本科。回国后，Spark Cui选择进入飞利浦研究院深造，负责超前研发。在此期间，他设计出的产品屡获红点等国际工业设计奖项。\n2017年，Spark Cui携手前微软研究院Martijn ten Bhömer博士，联手创立飞莫。自从2017年成立以来，飞莫先后推出洁面仪、水光仪、水光精华液、护肤等多款美容护肤产品。其热卖星品飞莫家用水光美容仪，成为2020年天猫水光仪单品销量Top1。\n从雷军到国内VC/PE，他们都在投这一个个小小的美容仪器。\n美容仪为什么火？\nZ世代撑起一个个美丽造富神话\n当Z世代开始“抗初老”，一个个财富神话诞生。\n《中国社会新人消费报告》指出，90后和00后消费者开始将美容仪、医美、保健品、运动健身等进行花式组合，以抵挡“衰老”带来的焦虑与不安。\n眼下，中国美容仪市场正在快速增长。根据市场研究公司英敏特在2020年11月发布的美容仪器报告，尽管2020年第一季度消费者购买力受到疫情影响，但恢复常态后，美容仪器市场再次实现快速增长。英敏特预计，2020年中国美容仪器市场总销售额同比去年增长21%，实现115亿元人民币。\nCBNData与天猫国际联合发布的《2020线上家用美容仪消费洞察报告》显示了一个进一步说明这一点的数据：在家用美容仪的典型消费群体中，30%的Z世代选择购入美容仪，对装备进行升级，在家享受躺着也变美的乐趣。\n今年，医美板块的持续暴涨已经持续了3个月，处在产业链上游的三大龙头——爱美客、昊海生科、华熙生物，涨幅更是分别达到了81%、104%、72%，甚至二级市场越来越多的上市公司开始贴医美的概念标签，一沾医美、股价飞涨之势。\n在医美行业，玻尿酸的暴利人尽皆知，而最近，“喝了就能变美”的食用玻尿酸风潮兴起。今年1月7日，国家卫生健康委发布公告称，透明质酸钠作为新的食品添加剂成分的审查通过，各方玩家闻风而动，华熙生物很快推出了首款玻尿酸饮用水品牌“水肌泉”，各类食品公司、保健品公司也行动起来，如汉口二厂推出了玻尿酸气泡水“哈水”、 养代餐食品品牌WonderLab上市首款口服玻尿酸软糖……\n除了美容仪，进入2021年，护肤、彩妆类的融资更是快马加鞭。据不完全统计，仅今年上半年，美妆个护品类的融资超过45起，红杉中国、高瓴创投、IDG资本、Coatue、五源资本、CPE源峰、天图投资、源码资本、弘毅创投、清流资本、创新工场、真格基金等VC/PE纷纷入局，甚至腾讯、字节跳动、B站等都在重押。\n今年1月，溪木源完成数千万元的B轮融资，投资方Coatue、弘毅创投，这是其在一年多的时间内连续获得的第6轮融资，火爆程度可以想见。溪木源成立于2019年，此前的投资方还包括真格基金、雪湖资本等。\n男士护肤品牌理然也在今年完成了3轮融资，今年1月，完成M31资本、五源资本、SIG和虎扑的1.5亿元B轮融资，3个月后的B+轮金额3亿，新股东包括B站和红点中国，就在这个月，B站再度加码。而它的频频容易，也带动了整个男士护肤的投资潮，如Tabula Rasa、蓝系等。\n这是当下轰轰烈烈的颜值经济的产物。随着2020年完美日记成功IPO，个护美妆的国货之光一个个崛起，在这个庞大的市场，所有人都带上了瞄准镜，正细心寻找下一个完美日记。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9,"KC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121161586,"gmtCreate":1624456875045,"gmtModify":1703837288950,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121161586","repostId":"1192976283","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162310051,"gmtCreate":1624034064673,"gmtModify":1703827339708,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162310051","repostId":"1140655086","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140655086","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624032685,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140655086?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 00:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Aihuishou landed on the New York Stock Exchange, opening up 31.21% on the first day of listing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140655086","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月18日，互联网二手电子产品销售平台爱回收在纽约证交所首日挂牌高开31.21%，报18.37美元，总市值46.78亿美元。\n\n今晚，80后复旦学子率队站上了IPO敲钟舞台。\n中国最大的二手消费电子产","content":"<p>June 18th, Internet second-hand electronic product sales platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">Love Recycling</a>On the first day of listing on the New York Stock Exchange, it opened 31.21% higher at US $18.37, with a total market value of US $4.678 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8076b9e3d9cb89fc46a4b6aa923eaaea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tonight, Fudan students born in the 1980s led a team to stand on the IPO bell ringing stage.</p><p>China's largest second-hand consumer electronics product trading and service platform-Wanwu Xinsheng (Aihuishou) Group was successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first ESG stock in Chinese concept stocks. The IPO issue price is US $14, corresponding to a market value of US $3.565 billion (approximately RMB 23 billion).</p><p>Behind the rebirth of all things is the entrepreneurial story of a pair of Fudan brothers. In 2011, 31-year-old Chen Xuefeng joined hands with his senior brother Sun Wenjun to enter a neglected business-second-hand mobile phone recycling. Along the way, the new life of all things has experienced a difficult period, and Chen Xuefeng was once rejected by investors. Now, the 41-year-old founder has finally won the first IPO in his life.</p><p>The rise of the new life of all things is also inseparable from an investment group behind them. Before the IPO, Wanwu Xinsheng completed more than 7 billion yuan in financing, including Wuyuan Capital, Tiantu Investment, Jinglin Investment, Dachen Caizhi, Cathay Fund, Qianhai Fund of Funds, Tiger Global Fund, Qicheng Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>, fresh capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>, Kuaishou and other more than ten VC/PE institutions and giant companies.</p><p>Looking back on the ten-year history, Chen Xuefeng wrote in an open letter that we started from a seemingly simple mobile phone recycling business. \"Fortunately, we inadvertently entered such an easily underestimated industry. For a long time, we were once misunderstood as a company that dismantles mobile phones and refines metals.\" He felt that being \"underestimated\" in entrepreneurship is probably not a bad thing, and many successes often stem from being \"underestimated\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e069bd4e7e98cc4e8ef67ef245de551\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fudan students collect garbage</b></p><p><b>Starting from recycling old mobile phones, making a market value of 23 billion</b></p><p>Behind Love Recycling is the counterattack story of an advanced CEO of Fudan programmer.</p><p>In 1980, Aihuishou CEO Chen Xuefeng was born<b>Hubei Huangshi</b>, with outstanding academic performance since childhood. He studied computer science at Tongji University as an undergraduate, and then obtained a master's degree in computer science at Fudan University. In 2006, Chen Xuefeng joined a company in Shanghai as a technical manager, and this experience lasted for four years.</p><p>The original establishment of Love Recycling<b>Inspired by the concept of swapping several years ago</b>。 In 2008, Chen Xuefeng, who was still working as a programmer, saw the news of \"pin for villa\". The news tells the story of an American man who bartered a paper clip for a year's use of a double-storey villa for more than a year.</p><p>At that time, Chen Xuefeng, who had a keen sense of smell, began to realize that with the development of China's economy, how to deal with household surplus items became a problem. So,<b>The entrepreneurial idea of \"second-hand\" direction sprouted in Chen Xuefeng's mind. This year, he joined forces with Fudan alumnus Sun Wenjun to build the C2C platform Leyi.com</b>At that time, this project also received a 100,000 yuan venture fund from Fudan University.</p><p>After working part-time for two years, Chen Xuefeng began to operate the website full-time in 2010. At that time, the main employees of the company were some part-time students of Fudan University, and these people basically stayed in this team after graduation. However,<b>When LeYi.com's team expanded to more than 10 people, the project couldn't go on</b>。</p><p>Chen Xuefeng review reflects: \"This project is unsuccessful<b>There are three main reasons</b>: First, I am from a technical background. When I was building a platform, I hoped to achieve matching through technical means, but it was later proved to be very difficult; Second, due to the lack of thinking of our market and users, the project is out of foundation; The third is that the transaction volume of the platform is insufficient. We ignore that the case of'pin for villa 'is accidental, and it took more than a year to complete intermittently. For the platform, scattered transaction demand cannot support effective orders. \"</p><p>The failure of the project once brought the team to the verge of dissolution, and also made the team calm down and think again. Review behind closed doors, Chen Xuefeng believes that there are still opportunities in the second-hand industry.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>After the release of iPhone4, the hot sale of smart phones triggered a wave of replacement among old mobile phone users. This made Chen Xuefeng secretly guess in his heart, \"<b>Will mobile phone recycling become a growing demand</b>？”</p><p>Therefore, the team set its direction on electronic product recycling. In 2011, Aihuishou was officially born in Shanghai. At first, Aihuishou was only an online platform, but because electronic products need to undergo professional testing, the pure online method is prone to user disputes in product quality and price. The ensuing negative comments, such as \"malicious price reduction\" and \"opaque procedures\", almost crushed this young brand.</p><p>In the face of the crisis, Chen Xuefeng made an extremely difficult decision-<b>Open an offline store</b>, build<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">Online and Offline</a>Combined cargo control system. In December 2013, Aihuishou opened its first store in Shanghai Yaxin Plaza. Chen Xuefeng didn't expect that taking the step of laying out offline stores almost put him in trouble. \"If an Internet company wants to build a store, it is hard and tiring, and it is considered stupid, and basically no one recognizes it.\"</p><p>It is the layout of offline stores that gives Aihuishou the ability to extend new businesses and ultimately have the core competitiveness to dominate the market. Take the one-stop trade-in service created by JD.com and Aihuishou as an example. This service continues to be popular among consumers, with a year-on-year growth of more than 311% in 2020. Thereafter,<b>The proportion of revenue of Aihuishou's stores continues to rise, and finally even reaches half of the total revenue.</b>From online to offline, Aihuishou has built a three-dimensional recycling scene that combines points, nets and surfaces.</p><p>Today, Wanwu Xinsheng has built a huge territory, sitting on the 3C product C2B recycling platform \"Aihuishou\", the B2B trading platform \"Paijitang\", the B2C retail platform \"Paipai\", and the overseas \"AHS DEVICE\" The business sector has laid more than half of the second-hand 3C rivers and lakes-as of the past 12 months at the end of March 2021, Wanwu Xinsheng Group has sold more than 26.1 million second-hand products on the entire platform, and the total GMV of the entire platform during the same period was 22.8 billion yuan, ranking first in the Chinese market.</p><p>With this IPO, the real situation of this second-hand unicorn has emerged: the prospectus shows that from 2018 to 2020, the company's revenue will be 3.262 billion yuan, 3.932 billion yuan and 4.858 billion yuan respectively. And,<b>The company's overall gross profit margin in 2020 is 25.7%, which is already higher than some mobile phone manufacturers.</b>However, according to statistics in the prospectus, in the past three years, Wanwu Xinsheng has accumulated losses of nearly 1.4 billion yuan.<b>Profitability is still one of the difficulties facing the industry</b>。</p><p>After ten years of entrepreneurship, Chen Xuefeng finally led all things to knock on the door of the New York Stock Exchange and became the first ESG stock in Chinese concept stocks. On the first day of listing,<b>The issue price of Wanwu Xinsheng is US $14, with a market value of 23 billion yuan</b>。</p><p><b>First investment of $2 million</b></p><p><b>Once unrecognized, TS was torn up twice</b></p><p>Along the way, a team quietly gathered behind the new birth of all things<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">Luxurious</a>Investor team.</p><p>Before the IPO,<b>Wanwu Xinsheng has conducted at least 8 rounds of financing with a total of over 7 billion yuan</b>, behind them emerged including<b>Wuyuan Capital, Tiantu Investment, Jinglin Investment, Dachen Caizhi, Cathay Fund, Qianhai Fund of Funds, Tiger Global Fund, Qicheng Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">Guotai Junan</a>, Qingxin Capital, JD.com, Kuaishou</b>Wait for more than ten VC/PE institutions and giant companies.</p><p>Among them, the first investment in the new birth of all things comes from<b>Wuyuan Capital</b>。 After the entrepreneurial journey of Leyi.com came to an end, Chen Xuefeng had the idea of recycling second-hand mobile phones. One day in 2011, he came to the Shanghai office of Wuyuan Capital. \"He took the initiative to contact our colleagues. We met in Wuyuan's office and listened to Chen Xuefeng's introduction. What he showed us was a low-end business that was almost invisible in our normal life.\" Shi Jianming, founding partner of Wuyuan Capital, recalled.</p><p>At that time, the entrepreneurial trend on social media almost occupied the attention of all investors, and no one noticed the humble industry of second-hand e-commerce. But Chen Xuefeng's creativity hit Shi Jianming's pain point, \"<b>I am a heavy electronic product enthusiast myself, and I was also worried about what to do with a drawer of second-hand mobile phones</b>。”</p><p>When we met for the first time, this young man born in the 1980s aroused Wuyuan Capital's interest in this humble market. Shi Jianming began to realize that second-hand mobile phones are a huge social problem and a huge market. \"It can be said that Chen Xuefeng helped us open the door of second-hand mobile phone recycling.\"</p><p>Looking back on those days, what impressed Shi Jianming the most was the second-hand market in Shanghai that never sleeps described by Chen Xuefeng. The Wuyuan Capital team later went to this market for research, and he found that, \"<b>From the salesperson on the first floor of the market to the second-hand mobile phone wholesaler on the fourth floor, there is a serious market ineffectiveness in the middle</b>。” Shi Jianming told the investment community that if someone can solve this social problem, it must be of great value.</p><p>However, at that time, the business model that Aihuishou hoped to establish did not have a benchmark company abroad, and the recycling of second-hand mobile phones was relatively low-frequency, so it was not easy to do. Even so, Shi Jianming and Wuyuan Capital were moved by the high flyers who graduated from Tongji University and Fudan University. This is because Chen Xuefeng is willing to invest huge time and energy in doing something that seems unreliable in the short term, and it is also based on the trust established by both parties and the same vision they share.</p><p>In October 2011, although Aihuishou was just an idea at this time, Wuyuan Capital still invested in Chen Xuefeng's team<b>US $2 million</b>, this is also the first investment since the establishment of Wanwu Xinsheng. In the following years, Wuyuan Capital has been with Chen Xuefeng and has given a lot of incentives and support.</p><p>Among them, in 2013, the new life of all things, which had just taken the first step of opening an offline store, ushered in the darkest moment. Chen Xuefeng once recalled: \"At that time, the traffic model of Internet companies was in full swing. When an Internet company went to build a store, it was dirty, tired and stupid, and basically no one recognized it.\" Even the TS (Letter of Intent for Investment) signed with investors was torn up twice.</p><p><b>When they were cornered, Wuyuan Capital once again gave Chen Xuefeng's team a bridge loan of USD 1 million.</b>\"Today, it seems that $1 million is not a big figure, but it was a very important support at that time.\" Chen Xuefeng said with emotion.</p><p>After ten years of companionship, Wuyuan Capital can be regarded as the most determined runner. It has bet on five rounds of financing for Wanwu Xinsheng in a row, holding 14.0% of the shares and is its largest VC investor.</p><p><b>There are also many well-known VC/PE behind it</b></p><p><b>Why are they eyeing the second-hand market</b></p><p>After the darkest moment, the financing of all things new has gradually opened up.</p><p>Around 2014,<b>Tiantu Investment began to conduct a lot of research and research on the \"second-hand business\" model, and scanned the vertical category of digital in the process</b>, the new birth of all things (also called \"love recycling\" at that time) thus entered the field of vision of Tiantu Investment.</p><p>\"At that time, Aihuishou happened to be at a turning point in its business, and it had just begun to lay out offline chain stores. At that time, many institutions in the market were not optimistic about chain stores, and it was in the era of incremental smartphones at that time. Everyone was interested in Aihuishou's second-hand electronic product recycling mode. There is still a certain misunderstanding, thinking that it is a'waste collector ', but we have experience in chain investment, and the two sides hit it off.\" Wei Guoxing recalled to the investment community. In the view of Li Kanglin, a partner of Tiantu Investment, Chen Xuefeng is an S-class entrepreneur whom they appreciate and recognize very much, which is in line with the imagination of the best entrepreneur in Tiantu Investment'S mind.</p><p>Since 2015, Tiantu Investment has led the financing of Wanwu Xinsheng in two consecutive rounds, and blessed more than proportionately in the subsequent financing. This also made Chen Xuefeng feel deeply: \"Shortly after Tiantu's investment, I made a special trip to Shenzhen to consult with Tiantu CEO General Manager Feng (Feng Weidong), and even one year at the annual meeting, I specially invited General Manager Feng to Aihuishou to talk about the brand strategy for all employees, which helped us a lot.\"</p><p>As shown in today's picture, investment holds 8.5% of Wanwu Xinsheng, which is its<b>Second largest financial investor</b>。 Successful bets over the years have also brought dozens of times of returns to Tiantu Investment.</p><p>Here we go<b>In 2016, Wanwu Xinsheng completed 400 million yuan in Series D financing</b>, the lineup of investors is eye-catching, and Dachen Caizhi is one of the leading investors. \"Investing in Aihuishou at this point in time is not only due to the right time and place, but also due to the in-depth observation and accurate judgment of the Dachen team on this track.\"<b>Dachen Caizhi</b>Yang Tinghui, a partner in the big consumer and enterprise service industry, told the investment community that at that time, China's 3C consumer recycling market will usher in rapid growth, and the industrial Internet is also running into the first half, which is the best investment time before the turning point of the industry.</p><p>Over the years, Dachen Caizhi has a deep layout in the second-hand economy. In addition to the new birth of all things, it has also successively invested in Bear U Rent, Fat Tiger Technology, etc. Xiao Bing, managing partner and president of Dachen Caizhi, firmly believes: \"<b>As the mobile Internet moves towards the second half, the traffic dividend has ended, and the supply chain capability will become the core differentiation capability of each company.</b>Therefore, in addition to continuing to do top-down industry research and due diligence, I have been patient and held the bullet until the company that meets Dachen's investment aesthetics appears and hits the heart. \"</p><p>Also in this round<b>Cathay Fund</b>, and later raised in 2018. Duan Lanchun, managing partner of Cathay Fund, said: \"The new life of all things not only provides a better and more convenient experience for thousands of users, but also makes long-term efforts for the low-carbon economy and the sustainable development of China's economy. We believe that the huge potential contained in China's second-hand electronic product trading and service market will further deepen the'flywheel effect'under the enterprise integration platform, and will continue to support a socially responsible enterprise like the new life of all things.\"</p><p>Qicheng Capital is another important investor in the rebirth of all things. In fact, as early as 2013, when it was still on JD.com<b>Kai Cheng Capital</b>Partners Chang Bin and Chen Xuefeng have already known each other, and he has contributed to the win-win strategic cooperation between JD.com and Wanwu Xinsheng. By 2019, based on its continued optimism about the prospects of the second-hand 3C trading market and the company's in-depth layout, Qicheng Capital made additional investments in the rapidly developing new life of all things, and the returns were quite abundant.</p><p><b>Fresh capital</b>Also in June 2019 and September of the following year,<b>Participated in the E round and E + round of financing of All Things New</b>, through diversified cooperation at the capital and business levels, accompanied and witnessed the growth of this unicorn, and now it is also ushering in the harvest period.</p><p><b>An undervalued industry, JD Kuaishou is also here</b></p><p><b>The 41-year-old founder is worth 2.5 billion</b></p><p>Of course, looking back at the financing process of all things new, JD.com is an indispensable role.</p><p>First of all, in terms of business, in June 2019, Wanwu Xinsheng merged Paipai, a subsidiary of JD.com, to make up for the shortcomings of its own B2C business, and finally formed a complete closed loop of C2B+B2B+B2C. This is a chemical reaction of a strong alliance, and it is also a \"turnaround against the trend\" of the new birth of all things.</p><p>Prior to this, Paipai and Aihuishou had in-depth business cooperation for many years, and \"they were a family for a long time\". Liao Jianwen, chief strategy officer of JD.com, once talked about the logic behind this merger: \"JD.com has always been optimistic about the social innovation significance of the circular economy. In the past few years, Aihuishou and Paipai have established a good foundation for cooperation, which is<b>A benchmark for synergy and win-win in JD's ecosystem</b>。 Through this strategic merger, the two parties will further improve the standardization and circulation efficiency of second-hand products, and promote the transparency and automation of the recycling and disposal supply chain. At the same time,<b>Leverage JD.com's solid retail infrastructure capabilities in retail, technology, logistics, insurance and other fields</b>, create a complete reverse supply chain and form external capability output. \"</p><p>In terms of funds, JD.com has also given huge support to the new life of all things. In 2015,<b>JD.com took part in the C round of financing of Wanwu Xinsheng early</b>, almost all raised bets in subsequent rounds of financing. To this day, JD.com has become the largest shareholder of Wanwu Xinsheng, with a shareholding ratio of 34.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/291f9455ffca3312c81f6745545bdbf7\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Surprisingly,<b>Kuaishou</b>It also joined the investor camp of Wanwu Xinsheng Group in 2021. This means that with the core reliance of JD.com, Aihuishou finally took Kuaishou and went outside the Fifth Ring Road to the young people in small towns who also have a strong demand for second-hand mobile phone digital products.</p><p>Looking back at the age of 31, Chen Xuefeng mentioned this past event in an open letter: Ten years ago, regarding the choice of direction, we first set a principle: \"Don't go to the place where people are fighting\". Instead of following the trend, it is better to do something that is not noticed but can create value in the long run. In the end, the team started from a seemingly simple mobile phone recycling business.</p><p>There are ups and downs on the road to entrepreneurship. Chen Xuefeng, who loves outdoor mountaineering, feels that entrepreneurship is like climbing mountains-ups and downs, crossing the fog and standing on the top of the mountain can you see different scenery. In his words, today's integrated platform business model is not achieved overnight, but the result of ten years of capability accumulation and ten years of model evolution.</p><p>\"In the early years, I thought that the bigger the scale, the better. Big business is a good business. Today, I think that a healthy and lasting business is a good business, and a business that can resonate with the society is a good business.\" In the next decade, he aims at the opportunity of tens of billions of dollars to make this unsexy business sexy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Aihuishou landed on the New York Stock Exchange, opening up 31.21% on the first day of listing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAihuishou landed on the New York Stock Exchange, opening up 31.21% on the first day of listing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-19 00:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 18th, Internet second-hand electronic product sales platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">Love Recycling</a>On the first day of listing on the New York Stock Exchange, it opened 31.21% higher at US $18.37, with a total market value of US $4.678 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8076b9e3d9cb89fc46a4b6aa923eaaea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tonight, Fudan students born in the 1980s led a team to stand on the IPO bell ringing stage.</p><p>China's largest second-hand consumer electronics product trading and service platform-Wanwu Xinsheng (Aihuishou) Group was successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first ESG stock in Chinese concept stocks. The IPO issue price is US $14, corresponding to a market value of US $3.565 billion (approximately RMB 23 billion).</p><p>Behind the rebirth of all things is the entrepreneurial story of a pair of Fudan brothers. In 2011, 31-year-old Chen Xuefeng joined hands with his senior brother Sun Wenjun to enter a neglected business-second-hand mobile phone recycling. Along the way, the new life of all things has experienced a difficult period, and Chen Xuefeng was once rejected by investors. Now, the 41-year-old founder has finally won the first IPO in his life.</p><p>The rise of the new life of all things is also inseparable from an investment group behind them. Before the IPO, Wanwu Xinsheng completed more than 7 billion yuan in financing, including Wuyuan Capital, Tiantu Investment, Jinglin Investment, Dachen Caizhi, Cathay Fund, Qianhai Fund of Funds, Tiger Global Fund, Qicheng Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>, fresh capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>, Kuaishou and other more than ten VC/PE institutions and giant companies.</p><p>Looking back on the ten-year history, Chen Xuefeng wrote in an open letter that we started from a seemingly simple mobile phone recycling business. \"Fortunately, we inadvertently entered such an easily underestimated industry. For a long time, we were once misunderstood as a company that dismantles mobile phones and refines metals.\" He felt that being \"underestimated\" in entrepreneurship is probably not a bad thing, and many successes often stem from being \"underestimated\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e069bd4e7e98cc4e8ef67ef245de551\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fudan students collect garbage</b></p><p><b>Starting from recycling old mobile phones, making a market value of 23 billion</b></p><p>Behind Love Recycling is the counterattack story of an advanced CEO of Fudan programmer.</p><p>In 1980, Aihuishou CEO Chen Xuefeng was born<b>Hubei Huangshi</b>, with outstanding academic performance since childhood. He studied computer science at Tongji University as an undergraduate, and then obtained a master's degree in computer science at Fudan University. In 2006, Chen Xuefeng joined a company in Shanghai as a technical manager, and this experience lasted for four years.</p><p>The original establishment of Love Recycling<b>Inspired by the concept of swapping several years ago</b>。 In 2008, Chen Xuefeng, who was still working as a programmer, saw the news of \"pin for villa\". The news tells the story of an American man who bartered a paper clip for a year's use of a double-storey villa for more than a year.</p><p>At that time, Chen Xuefeng, who had a keen sense of smell, began to realize that with the development of China's economy, how to deal with household surplus items became a problem. So,<b>The entrepreneurial idea of \"second-hand\" direction sprouted in Chen Xuefeng's mind. This year, he joined forces with Fudan alumnus Sun Wenjun to build the C2C platform Leyi.com</b>At that time, this project also received a 100,000 yuan venture fund from Fudan University.</p><p>After working part-time for two years, Chen Xuefeng began to operate the website full-time in 2010. At that time, the main employees of the company were some part-time students of Fudan University, and these people basically stayed in this team after graduation. However,<b>When LeYi.com's team expanded to more than 10 people, the project couldn't go on</b>。</p><p>Chen Xuefeng review reflects: \"This project is unsuccessful<b>There are three main reasons</b>: First, I am from a technical background. When I was building a platform, I hoped to achieve matching through technical means, but it was later proved to be very difficult; Second, due to the lack of thinking of our market and users, the project is out of foundation; The third is that the transaction volume of the platform is insufficient. We ignore that the case of'pin for villa 'is accidental, and it took more than a year to complete intermittently. For the platform, scattered transaction demand cannot support effective orders. \"</p><p>The failure of the project once brought the team to the verge of dissolution, and also made the team calm down and think again. Review behind closed doors, Chen Xuefeng believes that there are still opportunities in the second-hand industry.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>After the release of iPhone4, the hot sale of smart phones triggered a wave of replacement among old mobile phone users. This made Chen Xuefeng secretly guess in his heart, \"<b>Will mobile phone recycling become a growing demand</b>？”</p><p>Therefore, the team set its direction on electronic product recycling. In 2011, Aihuishou was officially born in Shanghai. At first, Aihuishou was only an online platform, but because electronic products need to undergo professional testing, the pure online method is prone to user disputes in product quality and price. The ensuing negative comments, such as \"malicious price reduction\" and \"opaque procedures\", almost crushed this young brand.</p><p>In the face of the crisis, Chen Xuefeng made an extremely difficult decision-<b>Open an offline store</b>, build<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">Online and Offline</a>Combined cargo control system. In December 2013, Aihuishou opened its first store in Shanghai Yaxin Plaza. Chen Xuefeng didn't expect that taking the step of laying out offline stores almost put him in trouble. \"If an Internet company wants to build a store, it is hard and tiring, and it is considered stupid, and basically no one recognizes it.\"</p><p>It is the layout of offline stores that gives Aihuishou the ability to extend new businesses and ultimately have the core competitiveness to dominate the market. Take the one-stop trade-in service created by JD.com and Aihuishou as an example. This service continues to be popular among consumers, with a year-on-year growth of more than 311% in 2020. Thereafter,<b>The proportion of revenue of Aihuishou's stores continues to rise, and finally even reaches half of the total revenue.</b>From online to offline, Aihuishou has built a three-dimensional recycling scene that combines points, nets and surfaces.</p><p>Today, Wanwu Xinsheng has built a huge territory, sitting on the 3C product C2B recycling platform \"Aihuishou\", the B2B trading platform \"Paijitang\", the B2C retail platform \"Paipai\", and the overseas \"AHS DEVICE\" The business sector has laid more than half of the second-hand 3C rivers and lakes-as of the past 12 months at the end of March 2021, Wanwu Xinsheng Group has sold more than 26.1 million second-hand products on the entire platform, and the total GMV of the entire platform during the same period was 22.8 billion yuan, ranking first in the Chinese market.</p><p>With this IPO, the real situation of this second-hand unicorn has emerged: the prospectus shows that from 2018 to 2020, the company's revenue will be 3.262 billion yuan, 3.932 billion yuan and 4.858 billion yuan respectively. And,<b>The company's overall gross profit margin in 2020 is 25.7%, which is already higher than some mobile phone manufacturers.</b>However, according to statistics in the prospectus, in the past three years, Wanwu Xinsheng has accumulated losses of nearly 1.4 billion yuan.<b>Profitability is still one of the difficulties facing the industry</b>。</p><p>After ten years of entrepreneurship, Chen Xuefeng finally led all things to knock on the door of the New York Stock Exchange and became the first ESG stock in Chinese concept stocks. On the first day of listing,<b>The issue price of Wanwu Xinsheng is US $14, with a market value of 23 billion yuan</b>。</p><p><b>First investment of $2 million</b></p><p><b>Once unrecognized, TS was torn up twice</b></p><p>Along the way, a team quietly gathered behind the new birth of all things<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">Luxurious</a>Investor team.</p><p>Before the IPO,<b>Wanwu Xinsheng has conducted at least 8 rounds of financing with a total of over 7 billion yuan</b>, behind them emerged including<b>Wuyuan Capital, Tiantu Investment, Jinglin Investment, Dachen Caizhi, Cathay Fund, Qianhai Fund of Funds, Tiger Global Fund, Qicheng Capital,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">Guotai Junan</a>, Qingxin Capital, JD.com, Kuaishou</b>Wait for more than ten VC/PE institutions and giant companies.</p><p>Among them, the first investment in the new birth of all things comes from<b>Wuyuan Capital</b>。 After the entrepreneurial journey of Leyi.com came to an end, Chen Xuefeng had the idea of recycling second-hand mobile phones. One day in 2011, he came to the Shanghai office of Wuyuan Capital. \"He took the initiative to contact our colleagues. We met in Wuyuan's office and listened to Chen Xuefeng's introduction. What he showed us was a low-end business that was almost invisible in our normal life.\" Shi Jianming, founding partner of Wuyuan Capital, recalled.</p><p>At that time, the entrepreneurial trend on social media almost occupied the attention of all investors, and no one noticed the humble industry of second-hand e-commerce. But Chen Xuefeng's creativity hit Shi Jianming's pain point, \"<b>I am a heavy electronic product enthusiast myself, and I was also worried about what to do with a drawer of second-hand mobile phones</b>。”</p><p>When we met for the first time, this young man born in the 1980s aroused Wuyuan Capital's interest in this humble market. Shi Jianming began to realize that second-hand mobile phones are a huge social problem and a huge market. \"It can be said that Chen Xuefeng helped us open the door of second-hand mobile phone recycling.\"</p><p>Looking back on those days, what impressed Shi Jianming the most was the second-hand market in Shanghai that never sleeps described by Chen Xuefeng. The Wuyuan Capital team later went to this market for research, and he found that, \"<b>From the salesperson on the first floor of the market to the second-hand mobile phone wholesaler on the fourth floor, there is a serious market ineffectiveness in the middle</b>。” Shi Jianming told the investment community that if someone can solve this social problem, it must be of great value.</p><p>However, at that time, the business model that Aihuishou hoped to establish did not have a benchmark company abroad, and the recycling of second-hand mobile phones was relatively low-frequency, so it was not easy to do. Even so, Shi Jianming and Wuyuan Capital were moved by the high flyers who graduated from Tongji University and Fudan University. This is because Chen Xuefeng is willing to invest huge time and energy in doing something that seems unreliable in the short term, and it is also based on the trust established by both parties and the same vision they share.</p><p>In October 2011, although Aihuishou was just an idea at this time, Wuyuan Capital still invested in Chen Xuefeng's team<b>US $2 million</b>, this is also the first investment since the establishment of Wanwu Xinsheng. In the following years, Wuyuan Capital has been with Chen Xuefeng and has given a lot of incentives and support.</p><p>Among them, in 2013, the new life of all things, which had just taken the first step of opening an offline store, ushered in the darkest moment. Chen Xuefeng once recalled: \"At that time, the traffic model of Internet companies was in full swing. When an Internet company went to build a store, it was dirty, tired and stupid, and basically no one recognized it.\" Even the TS (Letter of Intent for Investment) signed with investors was torn up twice.</p><p><b>When they were cornered, Wuyuan Capital once again gave Chen Xuefeng's team a bridge loan of USD 1 million.</b>\"Today, it seems that $1 million is not a big figure, but it was a very important support at that time.\" Chen Xuefeng said with emotion.</p><p>After ten years of companionship, Wuyuan Capital can be regarded as the most determined runner. It has bet on five rounds of financing for Wanwu Xinsheng in a row, holding 14.0% of the shares and is its largest VC investor.</p><p><b>There are also many well-known VC/PE behind it</b></p><p><b>Why are they eyeing the second-hand market</b></p><p>After the darkest moment, the financing of all things new has gradually opened up.</p><p>Around 2014,<b>Tiantu Investment began to conduct a lot of research and research on the \"second-hand business\" model, and scanned the vertical category of digital in the process</b>, the new birth of all things (also called \"love recycling\" at that time) thus entered the field of vision of Tiantu Investment.</p><p>\"At that time, Aihuishou happened to be at a turning point in its business, and it had just begun to lay out offline chain stores. At that time, many institutions in the market were not optimistic about chain stores, and it was in the era of incremental smartphones at that time. Everyone was interested in Aihuishou's second-hand electronic product recycling mode. There is still a certain misunderstanding, thinking that it is a'waste collector ', but we have experience in chain investment, and the two sides hit it off.\" Wei Guoxing recalled to the investment community. In the view of Li Kanglin, a partner of Tiantu Investment, Chen Xuefeng is an S-class entrepreneur whom they appreciate and recognize very much, which is in line with the imagination of the best entrepreneur in Tiantu Investment'S mind.</p><p>Since 2015, Tiantu Investment has led the financing of Wanwu Xinsheng in two consecutive rounds, and blessed more than proportionately in the subsequent financing. This also made Chen Xuefeng feel deeply: \"Shortly after Tiantu's investment, I made a special trip to Shenzhen to consult with Tiantu CEO General Manager Feng (Feng Weidong), and even one year at the annual meeting, I specially invited General Manager Feng to Aihuishou to talk about the brand strategy for all employees, which helped us a lot.\"</p><p>As shown in today's picture, investment holds 8.5% of Wanwu Xinsheng, which is its<b>Second largest financial investor</b>。 Successful bets over the years have also brought dozens of times of returns to Tiantu Investment.</p><p>Here we go<b>In 2016, Wanwu Xinsheng completed 400 million yuan in Series D financing</b>, the lineup of investors is eye-catching, and Dachen Caizhi is one of the leading investors. \"Investing in Aihuishou at this point in time is not only due to the right time and place, but also due to the in-depth observation and accurate judgment of the Dachen team on this track.\"<b>Dachen Caizhi</b>Yang Tinghui, a partner in the big consumer and enterprise service industry, told the investment community that at that time, China's 3C consumer recycling market will usher in rapid growth, and the industrial Internet is also running into the first half, which is the best investment time before the turning point of the industry.</p><p>Over the years, Dachen Caizhi has a deep layout in the second-hand economy. In addition to the new birth of all things, it has also successively invested in Bear U Rent, Fat Tiger Technology, etc. Xiao Bing, managing partner and president of Dachen Caizhi, firmly believes: \"<b>As the mobile Internet moves towards the second half, the traffic dividend has ended, and the supply chain capability will become the core differentiation capability of each company.</b>Therefore, in addition to continuing to do top-down industry research and due diligence, I have been patient and held the bullet until the company that meets Dachen's investment aesthetics appears and hits the heart. \"</p><p>Also in this round<b>Cathay Fund</b>, and later raised in 2018. Duan Lanchun, managing partner of Cathay Fund, said: \"The new life of all things not only provides a better and more convenient experience for thousands of users, but also makes long-term efforts for the low-carbon economy and the sustainable development of China's economy. We believe that the huge potential contained in China's second-hand electronic product trading and service market will further deepen the'flywheel effect'under the enterprise integration platform, and will continue to support a socially responsible enterprise like the new life of all things.\"</p><p>Qicheng Capital is another important investor in the rebirth of all things. In fact, as early as 2013, when it was still on JD.com<b>Kai Cheng Capital</b>Partners Chang Bin and Chen Xuefeng have already known each other, and he has contributed to the win-win strategic cooperation between JD.com and Wanwu Xinsheng. By 2019, based on its continued optimism about the prospects of the second-hand 3C trading market and the company's in-depth layout, Qicheng Capital made additional investments in the rapidly developing new life of all things, and the returns were quite abundant.</p><p><b>Fresh capital</b>Also in June 2019 and September of the following year,<b>Participated in the E round and E + round of financing of All Things New</b>, through diversified cooperation at the capital and business levels, accompanied and witnessed the growth of this unicorn, and now it is also ushering in the harvest period.</p><p><b>An undervalued industry, JD Kuaishou is also here</b></p><p><b>The 41-year-old founder is worth 2.5 billion</b></p><p>Of course, looking back at the financing process of all things new, JD.com is an indispensable role.</p><p>First of all, in terms of business, in June 2019, Wanwu Xinsheng merged Paipai, a subsidiary of JD.com, to make up for the shortcomings of its own B2C business, and finally formed a complete closed loop of C2B+B2B+B2C. This is a chemical reaction of a strong alliance, and it is also a \"turnaround against the trend\" of the new birth of all things.</p><p>Prior to this, Paipai and Aihuishou had in-depth business cooperation for many years, and \"they were a family for a long time\". Liao Jianwen, chief strategy officer of JD.com, once talked about the logic behind this merger: \"JD.com has always been optimistic about the social innovation significance of the circular economy. In the past few years, Aihuishou and Paipai have established a good foundation for cooperation, which is<b>A benchmark for synergy and win-win in JD's ecosystem</b>。 Through this strategic merger, the two parties will further improve the standardization and circulation efficiency of second-hand products, and promote the transparency and automation of the recycling and disposal supply chain. At the same time,<b>Leverage JD.com's solid retail infrastructure capabilities in retail, technology, logistics, insurance and other fields</b>, create a complete reverse supply chain and form external capability output. \"</p><p>In terms of funds, JD.com has also given huge support to the new life of all things. In 2015,<b>JD.com took part in the C round of financing of Wanwu Xinsheng early</b>, almost all raised bets in subsequent rounds of financing. To this day, JD.com has become the largest shareholder of Wanwu Xinsheng, with a shareholding ratio of 34.7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/291f9455ffca3312c81f6745545bdbf7\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Surprisingly,<b>Kuaishou</b>It also joined the investor camp of Wanwu Xinsheng Group in 2021. This means that with the core reliance of JD.com, Aihuishou finally took Kuaishou and went outside the Fifth Ring Road to the young people in small towns who also have a strong demand for second-hand mobile phone digital products.</p><p>Looking back at the age of 31, Chen Xuefeng mentioned this past event in an open letter: Ten years ago, regarding the choice of direction, we first set a principle: \"Don't go to the place where people are fighting\". Instead of following the trend, it is better to do something that is not noticed but can create value in the long run. In the end, the team started from a seemingly simple mobile phone recycling business.</p><p>There are ups and downs on the road to entrepreneurship. Chen Xuefeng, who loves outdoor mountaineering, feels that entrepreneurship is like climbing mountains-ups and downs, crossing the fog and standing on the top of the mountain can you see different scenery. In his words, today's integrated platform business model is not achieved overnight, but the result of ten years of capability accumulation and ten years of model evolution.</p><p>\"In the early years, I thought that the bigger the scale, the better. Big business is a good business. Today, I think that a healthy and lasting business is a good business, and a business that can resonate with the society is a good business.\" In the next decade, he aims at the opportunity of tens of billions of dollars to make this unsexy business sexy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e069bd4e7e98cc4e8ef67ef245de551","relate_stocks":{"RERE":"爱回收"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140655086","content_text":"6月18日，互联网二手电子产品销售平台爱回收在纽约证交所首日挂牌高开31.21%，报18.37美元，总市值46.78亿美元。\n\n今晚，80后复旦学子率队站上了IPO敲钟舞台。\n中国最大的二手消费电子产品交易和服务平台——万物新生（爱回收）集团成功在纽交所挂牌上市，成为中概股ESG第一股。此次IPO发行价为14美元，对应市值35.65亿美元（约合人民币230亿元）。\n万物新生背后，是一对复旦师兄弟的创业故事。2011年，已经31岁的陈雪峰联手师兄孙文俊踏入一门被忽视的生意——二手手机回收。一路走来，万物新生曾经历一段艰难岁月，陈雪峰一度被投资人拒之门外。如今，这位41岁创始人终于斩获人生第一个IPO。\n而万物新生的崛起，同样离不开身后一支投资天团。IPO前，万物新生完成超70亿元的融资，浮现了五源资本、天图投资、景林投资、达晨财智、凯辉基金、前海母基金、老虎环球基金、启承资本、国泰君安、清新资本、京东、快手等十余家VC/PE机构和巨头企业的身影。\n回望十年历程，陈雪峰在公开信写到，我们从一个看似简单的手机回收业务出发，“很幸运，我们不经意之间进入到了这样一个容易被低估的行业。很长一段时间，我们一度被误解为是一个做手机拆解和提炼金属的公司。”他感慨，创业中“被低估”很可能并不是坏事，很多成功往往都源于“被低估”。\n\n复旦学子「收垃圾」\n从回收旧手机起家，做出230亿市值\n爱回收的背后，是一位复旦程序员进阶CEO的逆袭故事。\n1980年，爱回收CEO陈雪峰出生于湖北黄石，从小学习成绩出众。他本科就读于同济大学计算机科学专业，之后又在复旦大学计算机系取得硕士学位。2006年，陈雪峰入职上海一家公司担任技术经理，这段经历持续了4年。\n爱回收最初的创立灵感缘于几年前的换物概念。2008年，还在做程序员的陈雪峰看到一则“别针换别墅”的新闻。新闻讲述了一个美国男子通过以物易物的方式，在一年多时间里，用一枚曲别针换来一栋双层别墅一年使用权的故事。\n彼时，嗅觉敏锐的陈雪峰开始意识到，伴随着中国经济的发展，如何处理家庭多余物品成为一个问题。于是，“二手”方向的创业想法就这样在陈雪峰脑海中萌发。这一年，他联合复旦校友孙文俊，搭建了以物换物的C2C平台乐易网，当时这个项目还获得来自复旦大学的10万元创业基金。\n兼职做了两年之后，2010年陈雪峰开始全职投入网站运营。彼时，公司主要员工是复旦大学的一些兼职学生，这部分人毕业之后也基本都留在了这个团队。然而，当乐易网团队扩张到超过10个人的时候，这个项目却做不下去了。\n陈雪峰复盘反思: “这个项目不成功的原因主要有三点：第一，我本人是技术出身，做平台的时候希望通过技术手段来实现匹配，但后来被证实难度很高；第二是由于我们市场和用户思维不足，项目脱离了基础；第三是平台交易量不足，我们忽视了‘别针换别墅’的案例具有偶然性，而且是断断续续用了一年多时间才完成的，对于平台而言，零散的交易需求无法支撑起有效订单。”\n项目失败一度让团队濒临解散，也让团队重新冷静下来思考。关起门来认真复盘，陈雪峰认为二手行业依然存在机遇。苹果手机发布iPhone4后，智能手机的热卖引发了旧版手机用户的换机潮。这让陈雪峰心里暗暗猜度，“手机回收会不会成为一个增长的需求？”\n于是，团队将方向瞄准电子产品回收。2011年，爱回收正式在上海诞生。最初爱回收只做线上平台，但由于电子产品需要经过专业检测，纯线上方式容易在商品品质和价格方面产生用户纠纷。随之而来的负面评价，如“恶意压价”、“程序不透明”也差点压垮了这个年轻的品牌。\n危机面前，陈雪峰做出了一个异常艰难的决定——开线下店，搭建线上线下结合的控货体系。2013年12月，爱回收在上海亚新广场开出了第一家门店。陈雪峰没想到，迈出布局线下门店这一步，又差点让他陷入困境。“一家互联网公司要去做门店，那是又苦又累，还被认为很蠢的事，基本没有人认可。”\n正是线下门店的布局，让爱回收有能力延伸出新的业务，最终拥有称霸市场的核心竞争力。以京东携手爱回收打造的一站式以旧换新服务为例，该服务持续受到消费者热捧，2020年同比增长超过311%。此后，爱回收的门店收入占比不断升高，最后甚至达到了总收入的一半。从线上到线下，爱回收构建起一个点、网、面结合的立体式回收场景。\n如今，万物新生已然筑成了一个庞大版图，坐拥3C产品C2B回收平台“爱回收”、B2B交易平台“拍机堂”、B2C零售平台“拍拍”，以及瞄准海外“AHS DEVICE”四大业务板块，打下了二手3C江湖的大半江山——截至2021年3月末的过去12个月，万物新生集团全平台成交的二手商品超过2610万台，同期全平台GMV总量为228亿元，均位列中国市场第一。\n随着此次IPO，这家二手独角兽的真实情况浮现：招股书显示，2018年至2020年，公司营收分别为32.62亿元、39.32亿元和48.58亿元。并且，公司2020年的整体毛利率为25.7%，这个数字已经比一些手机厂商还高。不过根据招股书统计，在过去的三年里，万物新生累计亏损近14亿元，盈利仍然是这个行业所直面的难题之一。\n十年创业，陈雪峰终于率领万物新生敲开了纽交所的大门，成为中概股ESG第一股。上市首日，万物新生发行价14美元，市值230亿元。\n第一笔投资200万美元\n一度无人认可，TS被撕毁两次\n一路走来，万物新生背后悄悄集结一支豪华投资人队伍。\nIPO前，万物新生至少进行了8轮累计超70亿元的融资，身后浮现了包括五源资本、天图投资、景林投资、达晨财智、凯辉基金、前海母基金、老虎环球基金、启承资本、国泰君安、清新资本、京东、快手等十余家VC/PE机构和巨头企业的身影。\n其中，万物新生的第一笔投资来自五源资本。在乐易网创业历程告一段落之后，陈雪峰萌生了回收二手手机的想法。2011年的一天，他来到了五源资本上海办公室，“他主动联系了我们的同事，我们在五源的办公室见面听了陈雪峰的介绍，他向我们展示的是个低端到几乎我们正常生活里面看不见的生意。”五源资本创始合伙人石建明回忆。\n彼时，社交媒体上的创业风潮几乎霸占了所有投资人的目光，没有人留意到二手电商这个不起眼的行业。但陈雪峰的创意切中了石建明的痛点，“我自己是重度电子产品爱好者，当时也在发愁一抽屉二手手机怎么办。”\n第一次见面，这位80后年轻人激起了五源资本对这个不起眼的市场的兴趣。石建明开始意识到，二手手机是一个巨大的社会问题，同时也是一个巨大的市场，“可以说，是陈雪峰帮我们打开了二手手机回收这个门。”\n回想当年，石建明印象最为深刻的是陈雪峰所描述的一个上海不夜城二手市场，五源资本团队后来专门去到了这个市场做调研，他发现，“从市场一楼的营业员开始一直访谈到四楼的二手手机批发商，这中间存在着严重的市场无效。”石建明告诉投资界，如果有人能够解决这个社会问题，一定有非常大价值。\n但当时爱回收所希望建立的商业模式在国外也没有对标公司，二手手机回收这件事也相对低频，要做起来并不容易。即使如此，石建明和五源资本还是被眼前这位来自同济本科、复旦研究生毕业的高材生打动了。这在于，陈雪峰愿意投入巨大的时间精力去做一件短期内看似不太靠谱的事情，也基于双方所建立起来的信任，以及所分享的相同愿景。\n2011年10月，尽管此时的爱回收还只是一个idea，五源资本依然出手向陈雪峰团队投资了200万美元，这也是万物新生创立以来的第一笔投资。在随后的多年里，五源资本一直陪伴在陈雪峰的左右给予了不少激励和支持。\n这其中在2013年，刚刚迈出线下开店第一步的万物新生迎来至暗时刻，陈雪峰曾回忆：“当时互联网公司的流量模式如火如荼，一家互联网公司去做门店，那是又脏、又累还很蠢，基本没有人认可”，甚至与投资方已经签订完成的TS（投资意向书）还被撕毁了两次。\n走投无路之际，五源资本再次给予了陈雪峰团队100万美元的过桥贷款。“今天看起来100万美元好像不是一个很大的数字，但在当时是非常重要的一个支持。”陈雪峰感慨说。\n十年相伴，五源资本堪称最坚定的陪跑者，连续押注了万物新生5轮融资，持股14.0%是其最大VC投资方。\n背后还有一众知名VC/PE\n他们为何看上二手市场\n走过至暗时刻，万物新生的融资渐渐打开局面。\n2014年左右，天图投资开始对“二手生意”模式进行大量研究和调研，在这个过程中扫描到了数码这一垂直品类，万物新生（彼时还叫“爱回收”）由此进入到了天图投资的视野中来。\n“当时的爱回收恰好处在业务转折点，刚开始布局线下连锁门店，那个时候市场上很多机构还不看好连锁，而且彼时正处在智能手机的增量时代，大家对爱回收的二手电子产品回收模式还存在一定的误解，认为是‘收废品的’，而我们对投连锁有经验，双方一拍即合。”魏国兴向投资界回忆。而在天图投资合伙人李康林看来，陈雪峰是他们非常欣赏和认可的S级创业者，契合了天图投资心目中最优秀企业家的想象。\n2015年开始，天图投资连续两轮领投了万物新生的融资，并在后来的融资中超比例加持。这也让陈雪峰感慨颇深：“天图投资后不久，我专程去深圳跟天图CEO冯总（冯卫东）请教过一次，甚至有一年开年会的时候特地请冯总到爱回收针对全员讲了一次品牌战略，这个对我们的帮助是很大的。”\n如今天图投资持股万物新生8.5%，是其第二大财务投资人。多年来的成功押注，也为天图投资带来数十倍的回报。\n到了2016年，万物新生完成了4亿元D轮融资，投资方阵容亮眼，而达晨财智便是领投方之一。“在这个时间点投中爱回收，除了天时地利，更来自于达晨团队对这一赛道深入的观察与准确的判断。”达晨财智大消费与企业服务行业合伙人杨廷辉向投资界表示，彼时中国3C消费回收市场将迎来高速增长，产业互联网也正跑步进入上半场，正是行业爆发拐点之前的最佳投资时间。\n多年来，达晨财智在二手经济领域布局颇深，除万物新生外，还相继投出了小熊U租、胖虎科技等。达晨财智执行合伙人、总裁肖冰坚定地认为：“移动互联网走向下半场，流量红利已经结束，供应链能力将成为各家的核心差异化能力。所以除了继续做自上而下的行业研究和尽调，一直保持耐心，持有子弹直到那家符合达晨投资审美的企业出现，正中红心。”\n同样在这轮出手的凯辉基金，后来又在2018年加注。凯辉基金管理合伙人段兰春表示：“万物新生不仅为万千用户提供了更好更便利的体验，更是为低碳经济与中国经济可持续发展做出长远努力。我们相信中国二手电子产品交易和服务市场所蕴含的巨大潜力将进一步深化企业一体化平台下的‘飞轮效应’，也将一如既往支持万物新生这样极具社会责任感的企业。”\n而启承资本也是万物新生的另一重要投资方。其实早在2013年，彼时还在京东的启承资本合伙人常斌与陈雪峰就已经相识，他促成了京东和万物新生双赢的战略合作。到了2019年，基于对二手3C交易市场前景和公司深度布局的持续看好，启承资本又对高速发展中的万物新生追加了投资，回报颇丰。\n清新资本也分别于2019年6月和次年9月，参与了万物新生的E轮与E+轮融资，通过资本与业务层面的多元化合作，陪伴和见证了这家独角兽的的成长，如今也迎来收获期。\n一个被低估的行业，京东快手也来了\n41岁创始人身家25亿\n当然，回顾万物新生的融资历程，京东是不可或缺的角色。\n首先在业务上，2019年6月万物新生合并了京东旗下的拍拍，补齐了自身B2C业务的短板，最终形成C2B+B2B+B2C的完整闭环。这是一次强强联合的化学反应，也是万物新生的“逆势翻盘”。\n在此之前，拍拍与爱回收已有多年深度业务合作，“很早就是一家人”。京东集团首席战略官廖建文曾谈到这一合并背后的逻辑：“京东始终看好循环经济的社会创新意义，过去几年来，爱回收与拍拍建立了良好的合作基础，是京东生态中协同共赢的标杆。双方通过此次战略合并，将进一步提升二手产品的标准化和流转效率，推动回收处置供应链的透明化和自动化。同时，借助京东在零售、技术、物流、保险等领域坚实的零售基础设施能力，打造完整的逆向供应链，并形成对外能力输出。”\n而在资金上，京东也给予了万物新生巨大的支持。2015年，京东早早出手参与了万物新生的C轮融资，随后的几轮融资里几乎都加注。直至今日，京东成为万物新生的最大股东，持股比例达34.7%。\n\n令人意外的是，快手也于2021年加入到了万物新生集团的投资方阵营中。这意味着，在有了京东这一核心倚仗后，爱回收终于牵起快手走向五环外，奔向同样对二手手机数码产品需求旺盛的小镇青年。\n回想31岁时一腔热血杀入这门并不性感的生意，陈雪峰在公开信提到这段往事：十年前，关于方向选择，我们首先定了个原则：\"众争之地勿往\"。与其跟风，不如去做一个不被人关注但是能长期创造价值的事情。最终，团队从一个看似简单的手机回收业务出发。\n创业路上少不了坎坷，酷爱户外登山的陈雪峰感慨，创业如登山——起起伏伏，穿越迷雾，站上山头，才能看到不一样的风景。用他的话来说，今天的一体化平台商业模式，不是一蹴而就的，而是十年能力积累和十年模式进化的结果。\n“早些年，我认为规模越大越好，大生意就是好生意。今天，我认为健康持久的生意是好生意，能与社会共赢共振的生意是好生意。”而下一个十年，他瞄准的是百亿美金的机会，让这门不性感的生意变得性感起来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RERE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168089819,"gmtCreate":1623943812531,"gmtModify":1703824282962,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168089819","repostId":"2143769003","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161104573,"gmtCreate":1623908576292,"gmtModify":1703823263272,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161104573","repostId":"1186688505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186688505","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623891302,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186688505?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 08:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Youran Animal Husbandry has a winning rate of 80% in one lot, and 3 lots are subscribed to secure one lot","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186688505","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月17日消息，本周四优然牧业发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。\n公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目","content":"<p>News on June 17, this Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a>According to the announcement, the company issued 715 million shares, priced at HK $6.98 per share, with 1,000 shares per lot. It is expected to be listed on June 18.</p><p>During the public offering stage, Youran Animal Husbandry was subscribed 3.73 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 71.544 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a winning rate of 80% for one lot, and 3 subscriptions were secured for one lot.</p><p>In addition, the international offering was oversubscribed, and the final number of offer shares was 644 million shares (excluding over-allocation shares), equivalent to 90% of the total number of offer shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information Collation is as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2349a0d398ab0b7c627322586dc1995\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot of 1,000 shares, the entry fee is HK $8,747.26. The winning rate of one lot is 80%, and the subscription of 3 lots is stable.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 600,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are about HK $5,248,360.09.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b55b260a699e4eed6d62b7a2b20d9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baef5fa28b0cc392f49dad86d7d64628\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46328b4384685df91ed4359f3713a90a\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the public offering stage, Youran Animal Husbandry was subscribed 3.73 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 71.544 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a winning rate of 80% for one lot, and 3 subscriptions were secured for one lot.</p><p>In addition, the international offering was oversubscribed, and the final number of offer shares was 644 million shares (excluding over-allocation shares), equivalent to 90% of the total number of offer shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information Collation is as follows:</p><p>In terms of financing purposes, the company plans to use the net proceeds of approximately HK $3.238 billion from the global offering for the following purposes: approximately 75% will be allocated to allocate investment projects in the next two years, including the construction of ranches under construction, new ranches and feed production bases and purchase required facilities and equipment for them; About 15% may be allocated to the pasture to buy cows; Approximately 10% will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p>It is reported that Youran Animal Husbandry was established in 1984. It was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yili, the fifth largest dairy manufacturer in the world. In 2015, it spun off its business from Yili for operation. At present, the company has developed into a leader in the upstream market of China's dairy industry, and its business layout covers the whole upstream industry chain of dairy industry from breeding to feed to raw milk production.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>In terms of revenue in 2020, the company is China's largest upstream comprehensive dairy product and service provider.</b>Through the two business segments of raw milk and ruminant breeding systematic solutions, the company provides high-quality raw milk to large dairy manufacturers and ruminant breeding products and services to pastures. Yili is the largest customer of Youran Animal Husbandry.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the company's total revenue from 2018 to 2020 was RMB 6.334 billion, RMB 7.668 billion and RMB 11.781 billion respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.4%; During the same period, net profits were 653 million yuan, 802 million yuan and 1.541 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 53.6%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Youran Animal Husbandry has a winning rate of 80% in one lot, and 3 lots are subscribed to secure one lot</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYouran Animal Husbandry has a winning rate of 80% in one lot, and 3 lots are subscribed to secure one lot\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 08:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>News on June 17, this Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a>According to the announcement, the company issued 715 million shares, priced at HK $6.98 per share, with 1,000 shares per lot. It is expected to be listed on June 18.</p><p>During the public offering stage, Youran Animal Husbandry was subscribed 3.73 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 71.544 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a winning rate of 80% for one lot, and 3 subscriptions were secured for one lot.</p><p>In addition, the international offering was oversubscribed, and the final number of offer shares was 644 million shares (excluding over-allocation shares), equivalent to 90% of the total number of offer shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information Collation is as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2349a0d398ab0b7c627322586dc1995\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot of 1,000 shares, the entry fee is HK $8,747.26. The winning rate of one lot is 80%, and the subscription of 3 lots is stable.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 600,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are about HK $5,248,360.09.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b55b260a699e4eed6d62b7a2b20d9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baef5fa28b0cc392f49dad86d7d64628\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46328b4384685df91ed4359f3713a90a\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the public offering stage, Youran Animal Husbandry was subscribed 3.73 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 71.544 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option is exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with a winning rate of 80% for one lot, and 3 subscriptions were secured for one lot.</p><p>In addition, the international offering was oversubscribed, and the final number of offer shares was 644 million shares (excluding over-allocation shares), equivalent to 90% of the total number of offer shares. The relevant data of Tiger Information Collation is as follows:</p><p>In terms of financing purposes, the company plans to use the net proceeds of approximately HK $3.238 billion from the global offering for the following purposes: approximately 75% will be allocated to allocate investment projects in the next two years, including the construction of ranches under construction, new ranches and feed production bases and purchase required facilities and equipment for them; About 15% may be allocated to the pasture to buy cows; Approximately 10% will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p>It is reported that Youran Animal Husbandry was established in 1984. It was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yili, the fifth largest dairy manufacturer in the world. In 2015, it spun off its business from Yili for operation. At present, the company has developed into a leader in the upstream market of China's dairy industry, and its business layout covers the whole upstream industry chain of dairy industry from breeding to feed to raw milk production.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>In terms of revenue in 2020, the company is China's largest upstream comprehensive dairy product and service provider.</b>Through the two business segments of raw milk and ruminant breeding systematic solutions, the company provides high-quality raw milk to large dairy manufacturers and ruminant breeding products and services to pastures. Yili is the largest customer of Youran Animal Husbandry.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the company's total revenue from 2018 to 2020 was RMB 6.334 billion, RMB 7.668 billion and RMB 11.781 billion respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.4%; During the same period, net profits were 653 million yuan, 802 million yuan and 1.541 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 53.6%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22fb0a544aa253b668379d9f58bbe5a9","relate_stocks":{"09858":"优然牧业"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186688505","content_text":"6月17日消息，本周四优然牧业发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。\n公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：申购阶梯：\n每手1000股，入场费8,747.26港元。一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n乙组门槛为60万股，申购所需资金约5,248,360.09港元。公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：\n筹资用途方面，公司拟将全球发售所得款项净额约32.38亿港元用于以下用途：约75%将分配用于拨付未来两年的投资项目，包括兴建正在建设的牧场、新建的牧场及饲料生产基地并为其购置所需设施设备；约15%或将分配用于牧场购买奶牛；约10%将分配用于营运资金及一般企业用途。\n据悉，优然牧业成立于1984年，曾作为全球排名第五的大型乳制品制造商伊利旗下全资附属公司，2015年将业务从伊利分拆出来运营。目前公司已发展成为中国乳业上游市场的领导者，业务布局覆盖由育种到饲料再到原料奶生产的乳业上游全产业链。\n根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按2020年收入计，公司是中国规模最大的乳业上游综合产品和服务提供商。公司通过原料奶及反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案两个业务分部，向大型乳制品制造商提供优质原料奶并向牧场提供反刍动物养殖产品及服务，伊利是优然牧业最大的客户。\n财务数据方面，2018年至2020年公司总营收分别为人民币63.34亿元、76.68亿元及117.81亿元，复合年增长率为36.4%；同期录得净利润6.53亿元、8.02亿元及15.41亿元，复合年增长率为53.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09858":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9007776016,"gmtCreate":1643025925612,"gmtModify":1676533765876,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[Happy]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008836416,"gmtCreate":1641413653550,"gmtModify":1676533611474,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>&nbsp;2022 discount&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>&nbsp;2022 discount&nbsp;","text":"$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ 2022 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22:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170877267","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","content":"<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose intraday. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Rose nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPopular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during the session, with Pinduoduo rising nearly 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 22:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose intraday. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Rose nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Up 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170877267","content_text":"周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805025843,"gmtCreate":1627826259682,"gmtModify":1703496322227,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805025843","repostId":"1170169817","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170169817","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627819590,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170169817?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 20:06","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170169817","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持","content":"<p>On August 1, Hengteng Network announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% equity of Hengteng Network for a total consideration of HK $3.25 billion and HK $3.20 per share. Among them, Buyer 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% shares of Hengteng Network. As of the date of the announcement, Buyer 1 holds approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Evergrande: Selling 11% stake in Hengteng Network for HK $3.25 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-01 20:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 1, Hengteng Network announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% equity of Hengteng Network for a total consideration of HK $3.25 billion and HK $3.20 per share. Among them, Buyer 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% shares of Hengteng Network. As of the date of the announcement, Buyer 1 holds approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengteng Network.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大","00136":"中国儒意"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170169817","content_text":"8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约16.90%；而中国恒大持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约37.55%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00136":0.9,"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805025616,"gmtCreate":1627826287135,"gmtModify":1703496322391,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805025616","repostId":"2156169561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032389283,"gmtCreate":1647290887017,"gmtModify":1676534211501,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032389283","repostId":"1178901868","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178901868","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1647270835,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178901868?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-14 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices \"swing wildly\" between rebounds and plunges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178901868","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The recent violent volatility in the U.S. Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, has posed huge challenges to traders trying to bet on both tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict to trigger commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand, while<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) is triggering concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation.\"</b></p><p>Since the Russian troops sent to Ukraine, the price of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen sharply and the yield has continued to decline. Safe-haven investors have rushed to buy this generally considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have rushed to buy U.S. bonds to avoid future prices. Miss buying points when climbing.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that last week, the situation seemed to have reversed. As concerns that the inflation rate has not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of U.S. bonds gradually withdrew, and the two-year U.S. bond yield soared to the highest point in two years. With the consumer price index (CPI) surging sharply and may still not have peaked, it shows that the Fed is highly likely to start a rate hike cycle on Wednesday Eastern Time.<b>Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was sold sharply again, with the yield once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9, the intraday yield of the 10-year U.S. bond was as low as 1.837%, and finally closed at a high of 1.958%. On March 10, the intraday yield was as low as 1.913%, and finally closed at a high of 2.021%. Similar plots were staged almost every day last week. Should we continue to bet? Traders are \"extremely tangled\".</p><p>The previous violent volatility has posed a difficult problem for traders: after selling U.S. bonds to make a profit flight, although everyone now has a lot of money on hand, the wrong person who bets will face a heavy price-in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be enough reasons to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth pull has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early COVID-19 crash in March 2020, or since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>In the face of this situation, some hedge funds have been treading cautiously to avoid losing money from wrong bets, deleveraging and unwinding positions. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term U.S. bonds (over 10 years), believing that long-term U.S. bonds will perform better as the outlook for U.S. economic growth darkens.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring cash on hand into some actively managed ETF funds focused on short-end bonds to transition over a period of slowing economic growth, a trend that data shows has been prevalent since the beginning of the year.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage RJ O 'Brien, said: \"<b>There is no doubt that this is a market that belongs to short-term traders.</b>\"He noted that with near-zero interest rates over the past two years, long-term investors have not seized the opportunities presented by spreads.</p><p><b>U.S. Treasury Bond market volatility surges</b></p><p>The volatility reflects broader market volatility as investors assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing simultaneous volatility in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets. This presents opportunities for quick-thinking traders,<b>But it also brings the risk of \"standing on the wrong side\" in the trend change.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O 'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trend of the U.S. Treasury Bond market is the largest value-at-risk (VAR) shock to \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He said that Citi's metrics show that trading volume in the Treasury Bond market in the United States has dropped from a higher level. \"At that time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, and now there is a sentiment that we should keep our feet on the ground and reduce the size of the deal.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some of the usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid the expectation that the Federal Reserve will conduct multiple rate hike this year. Bank of America said the decline in trading volume represents uncertainty for the market in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, noting that implied volatility across the yield curve has risen sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America pointed out that on Tuesday, the ICE Bank of America MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations for volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Bond has had its worst week in the last 10 years, losing a value in 5 days equivalent to the entire interest payment of the past year. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index is down 3.8% this year, more than any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Recession expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, the soaring commodity prices have made the market's expectation of economic growth slowdown stronger and stronger. The market is worried that economic growth will slow down when interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very obvious.<b>This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trade demand.\"</b>, that is, betting that short-term yields will rise more dramatically than long-term yields as economic growth prospects dim. On March 7, the difference between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest difference since the early COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 caused the U.S. economy to face stagnation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, as traders try to judge whether they have the guts to bet on flattening, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from rising downtrend risks. O 'Donnell, a strategist at Citigroup, said that some pension and insurance companies' capital flows are concentrated on buying options on 10-30-year U.S. Treasuries. If the U.S. economy slows sharply next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun to pivot one of its main funds more towards longer-end bonds. \"We're moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve,\" Schwartz said, with the company managing nearly $500 billion of assets at the end of last year.</p><p>Some analysts also believe that rising yields provide some benefits for individual investors, who can reinvest interest and principal in bonds with higher yields.</p><p><b>Actively managed debt funds are popular with investors</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA Research, said the volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETF funds.<b>These funds seek to proactively manage market risk and focus on short-term U.S. debt</b>, he mentioned the capital inflow of related products of large financial institutions such as PIMCO and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>\"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed debt-based fund managers can cope with market uncertainty by looking for additional yields with lower risks,\" Rosenbluth said. \"Understandably, compared with last year, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of higher interest rates, when last year's fixed-income ETFs faced higher risks.\"</p><p>For investors who have maintained a defensive posture and kept their interest rate exposure low, the rise in yields may provide an opportunity to get back into the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said: \"We have held positions for a short time and are trying to get back to neutral levels, so in our view the 2% level of any asset at 10 years is reasonable value for us.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices \"swing wildly\" between rebounds and plunges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices \"swing wildly\" between rebounds and plunges\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-14 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The recent violent volatility in the U.S. Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, has posed huge challenges to traders trying to bet on both tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict to trigger commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand, while<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) is triggering concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation.\"</b></p><p>Since the Russian troops sent to Ukraine, the price of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen sharply and the yield has continued to decline. Safe-haven investors have rushed to buy this generally considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have rushed to buy U.S. bonds to avoid future prices. Miss buying points when climbing.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that last week, the situation seemed to have reversed. As concerns that the inflation rate has not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of U.S. bonds gradually withdrew, and the two-year U.S. bond yield soared to the highest point in two years. With the consumer price index (CPI) surging sharply and may still not have peaked, it shows that the Fed is highly likely to start a rate hike cycle on Wednesday Eastern Time.<b>Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was sold sharply again, with the yield once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9, the intraday yield of the 10-year U.S. bond was as low as 1.837%, and finally closed at a high of 1.958%. On March 10, the intraday yield was as low as 1.913%, and finally closed at a high of 2.021%. Similar plots were staged almost every day last week. Should we continue to bet? Traders are \"extremely tangled\".</p><p>The previous violent volatility has posed a difficult problem for traders: after selling U.S. bonds to make a profit flight, although everyone now has a lot of money on hand, the wrong person who bets will face a heavy price-in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be enough reasons to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth pull has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early COVID-19 crash in March 2020, or since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>In the face of this situation, some hedge funds have been treading cautiously to avoid losing money from wrong bets, deleveraging and unwinding positions. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term U.S. bonds (over 10 years), believing that long-term U.S. bonds will perform better as the outlook for U.S. economic growth darkens.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring cash on hand into some actively managed ETF funds focused on short-end bonds to transition over a period of slowing economic growth, a trend that data shows has been prevalent since the beginning of the year.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage RJ O 'Brien, said: \"<b>There is no doubt that this is a market that belongs to short-term traders.</b>\"He noted that with near-zero interest rates over the past two years, long-term investors have not seized the opportunities presented by spreads.</p><p><b>U.S. Treasury Bond market volatility surges</b></p><p>The volatility reflects broader market volatility as investors assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing simultaneous volatility in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets. This presents opportunities for quick-thinking traders,<b>But it also brings the risk of \"standing on the wrong side\" in the trend change.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O 'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trend of the U.S. Treasury Bond market is the largest value-at-risk (VAR) shock to \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He said that Citi's metrics show that trading volume in the Treasury Bond market in the United States has dropped from a higher level. \"At that time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, and now there is a sentiment that we should keep our feet on the ground and reduce the size of the deal.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some of the usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid the expectation that the Federal Reserve will conduct multiple rate hike this year. Bank of America said the decline in trading volume represents uncertainty for the market in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, noting that implied volatility across the yield curve has risen sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America pointed out that on Tuesday, the ICE Bank of America MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations for volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Bond has had its worst week in the last 10 years, losing a value in 5 days equivalent to the entire interest payment of the past year. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index is down 3.8% this year, more than any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Recession expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, the soaring commodity prices have made the market's expectation of economic growth slowdown stronger and stronger. The market is worried that economic growth will slow down when interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very obvious.<b>This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trade demand.\"</b>, that is, betting that short-term yields will rise more dramatically than long-term yields as economic growth prospects dim. On March 7, the difference between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest difference since the early COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 caused the U.S. economy to face stagnation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, as traders try to judge whether they have the guts to bet on flattening, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from rising downtrend risks. O 'Donnell, a strategist at Citigroup, said that some pension and insurance companies' capital flows are concentrated on buying options on 10-30-year U.S. Treasuries. If the U.S. economy slows sharply next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun to pivot one of its main funds more towards longer-end bonds. \"We're moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve,\" Schwartz said, with the company managing nearly $500 billion of assets at the end of last year.</p><p>Some analysts also believe that rising yields provide some benefits for individual investors, who can reinvest interest and principal in bonds with higher yields.</p><p><b>Actively managed debt funds are popular with investors</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA Research, said the volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETF funds.<b>These funds seek to proactively manage market risk and focus on short-term U.S. debt</b>, he mentioned the capital inflow of related products of large financial institutions such as PIMCO and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>\"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed debt-based fund managers can cope with market uncertainty by looking for additional yields with lower risks,\" Rosenbluth said. \"Understandably, compared with last year, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of higher interest rates, when last year's fixed-income ETFs faced higher risks.\"</p><p>For investors who have maintained a defensive posture and kept their interest rate exposure low, the rise in yields may provide an opportunity to get back into the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said: \"We have held positions for a short time and are trying to get back to neutral levels, so in our view the 2% level of any asset at 10 years is reasonable value for us.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178901868","content_text":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪70年代式滞胀”的担忧。自俄罗斯出兵乌克兰之后，美国国债价格大幅上涨，收益率不断下滑，避险投资者纷纷买入这一普遍认为最安全的资产之一，同时引发债券投资者争相购买美债，以避免未来价格攀升时错过买点。智通财经APP观察到，在上周，情形似乎出现了反转，随着对通胀率仍未见顶担忧再度成为债市焦点，美债避险买盘逐渐退场，两年期美债收益率飙升至两年来最高点。随着消费者价格指数(CPI)大幅飙升且可能仍未见顶，显示美联储极大概率于美东时间周三开始加息周期。而在今天，10年期美债再次被大幅抛售，收益率一度达到2.10%，创2019年7月以来的最高水平。在3月9日，10年期美债日内收益率一度低至1.837%，最后以1.958%高点收盘，在3月10日日内收益率一度低至1.913%，最后以2.021%高点收盘，在上周几乎每天都在上演类似的剧情，究竟该不该继续押注?交易员们“纠结无比”。此前剧烈的波动给交易员们带来了一个难题:抛售美债实现获利出逃之后，尽管目前大家手头上拥有大量资金，但押注错误的人将面临惨重代价——在变化如此迅速的投资环境之中，做出看涨或看跌预判似乎都有足够的理由。这种来回拉扯使得广受关注的美国国债隐含价格波动性指标达到了自2020年3月新冠疫情初期崩盘，或2008年金融危机之后的最高水平。面对这种情况，一些对冲基金一直在谨慎行事，以避免因错误的押注、去杠杆化和平仓而蒙受亏损。长线投资者加大了对长端美债(10年期以上)的押注，认为随着美国经济增长前景黯淡，长端美债将会有更好的表现。与此同时，资产规模较小的投资者一直在向一些专注于短端债券的主动管理型ETF基金投入手头上的现金，以过渡经济增长放缓时期，有数据显示这一趋势自年初以来一直很普遍。芝加哥期货经纪公司RJ O’Brien董事总经理John Brady表示：“毫无疑问，这是一个属于短期交易者的市场。”他指出，在过去两年接近零利率的情况下，长期投资者没有抓住利差带来的机会。美国国债市场波动性剧增这一波动性反映了更广泛的市场波动，因为此时投资者正评估俄乌冲突对全球经济带来的影响，导致股市、债市和外汇市场同时出现剧烈波动。这为思维敏捷的交易员带来了机会，但也带来了在趋势转变中“站错边”的风险。花旗集团策略师William O’Donnell表示，自俄乌冲突升级以来，美国国债市场的走势对“对冲基金和热钱账户”来说是2020年3月以来最大的风险价值(VAR)冲击。他表示，花旗的衡量指标显示，美国国债市场的成交量已从较高水平下降，“当时有一种观点认为，这是一个不错的获利机会，而现在有一种情绪，认为我们应该脚踏实地，减少交易规模。”值得注意的是，在上周，美国银行业曾指出，在美联储今年将多次加息的预期下，一些往常较热门的交易近期开始大幅缩减。美银表示，交易量下滑代表着市场在短期内面临不确定性，而这明显体现在潜在的波动性剧增上，并指出整条收益率曲线上的隐含波动率均大幅上升。美银指出，在上周二，追踪交易员对美国债券市场波动预期的ICE美国银行移动指数(BofA MOVE Index)触及140.03点，为2020年3月以来的最高水平。美国国债经历了过去10年中最糟糕的一周，在5天内损失的价值相当于过去一年的全部利息支付。美国国债指数今年下跌了3.8%，超过了自1973年以来Bloomberg data有记录的任何全年跌幅。经济衰退预期自上个月以来，大宗商品价格飙升使得市场对于经济增长放缓的预期越来越强烈，市场担心在利率上升之际经济增长速度将放缓，甚至有交易员认为“滞胀苗头”已非常明显。这进一步刺激了本已强劲的所谓“趋平交易需求”，即押注随着经济增长前景黯淡，短端收益率将比长端收益率升幅更加剧烈。在3月7日，两年期和10年期美债收益率的差值缩小至仅19个基点，这是自2020年3月新冠疫情初期导致美国经济面临停滞以来的最小差值。不过，在交易员们试图判断自己是否有胆量押注趋平之际，长线投资者正专注于保护其资产免受不断增长的下行趋势风险的冲击。花旗集团策略师O’Donnell表示，部分养老金和保险公司的资金流向集中于买入10- 30年期美债的期权，如果明年美国经济大幅放缓，收益率从当前水平回落，这些期权持有者将会获利。Western Asset基金经理Molly Schwartz表示，该公司已开始将旗下一只主要基金更多地转向较长端债券。截至去年年底，该公司管理着近5,000亿美元资产，Schwartz表示:“我们正在将一些前端敞口移至收益率曲线上方。”也有分析观点认为，收益率抬升为个人投资者提供了一些好处，他们可以将利息和本金再投资于收益率更高的债券。主动管理型债基受投资者热捧CFRA Research的ETF和共同基金研究主管Todd Rosenbluth表示，这种波动似乎也增加了投资者们对一些ETF基金的兴趣，这些基金寻求主动管理市场风险，并专注于短端美债，他提到了太平洋投资管理公司和摩根大通等大型金融机构旗下相关产品今年以来的资金流入量。Rosenbluth表示:“从历史数据来看，投资者一直愿意相信主动管理型债基的基金经理能够通过寻找风险较低的额外收益来应对市场的不确定性。”“可以理解的是，与去年相比，今年的资金流向为利率抬升这一预期提供了一些保护空间，而当时去年的固定收益型ETF面临的风险较高。”对于那些一直保持防御性态势并保持较低水平的利率风险敞口投资者来说，收益率的上升可能提供了一个重返市场的机会。Cresset Capital首席投资官Jack Ablin表示:“我们仓位持有时间较短，并试图回到中性水平，因此在我们看来10年期任何资产的2%水平对我们来说都是合理价值。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818497606,"gmtCreate":1630423932105,"gmtModify":1676530300912,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818497606","repostId":"1169845430","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818028737,"gmtCreate":1630367097929,"gmtModify":1676530280436,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818028737","repostId":"1183198336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183198336","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630309929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183198336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198336","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。","content":"<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he is 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"Physically, I have no value, only a little residual value left. It's really useless, but it doesn't prevent me from working, feeling happy or thinking. I don't feel that my enjoyment and love of life have decreased in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I am in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name always has a strong legendary color, from American Express to Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its concept of \"value investment\" has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is also at the top of the contempt chain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School and learned from Benjamin Graham, who is known as the \"father of value investors\". Under Graham's door, Buffett is like a duck to water.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. Since then, the nature of Berkshire's business has changed. It is no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as an operating platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity, and creating investment myths.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (that is, more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 Index's growth rate was 15,019%. This is only the increase in book value, and Berkshire's intrinsic value has grown much more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source : WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after 53 years of uncanny operation by Buffett, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and precise. The victory of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name of a blue-chip printing company (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy has grown slowly, and the increase in unit price has led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is much more valuable than its book value. It is a brand enterprise, and its products can be sold at a price higher than the production cost, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's working capital. After paying the corporate profit tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive enterprises.</p><p>See-Poetry has brought many new sources of cash to Berkshire, which is just like the description of Berkshire in the Bible: \"plump, fertile and fertile\".</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett once again bought a large amount of GEICO shares, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, with a total cost of US $47.14 million. In the 15 years after 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's equity share had increased to 50% and spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% shares. After owning all the equity, GEICO continues to contribute free insurance float to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep relationship with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about 4 hours explaining the operating model of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO The core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly anticipated commercial castle, then the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of the contradiction between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its share price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of Coca-Cola shares. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, with a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars. The total dividends received during the period were approximately 6 billion US dollars.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks Coke every day and has been living this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live one more year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and chocolate every day can make me happier but lose my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an excellent company, and the management is concerned about the return on capital and tangible cash earnings of shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has a long history of continuity, and the outlook for the next few decades is also clear. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic cases scattered in Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started buying in 1973, had an equity swap in 2014, with an annualized return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who bought it in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to buy in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>All PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were sold from July to October 2007, with pre-tax investment income of approximately US $3.55 billion;</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>One by one, the vivid cases not only form outstanding investment performance, but also contain changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent enterprise learner, who can quickly and accurately distinguish the complex keys of a company. He can veto an investment in two minutes and make major investment decisions in two days of analysis. He is always ready. As he says in the company's annual report, \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about the trend of the short-term stock market, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of the company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that in his 40-year career, the results of 12 investment decisions have made him unique.</p><p><b>Buffett is not outdated, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, your excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone is competing to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there has been an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concluded that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because Berkshire The ultra-low capital cost of insurance business implies 1.4 ~ 1.6 times leverage in returns.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies to analyze Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a strong advocate of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the part of quantitative traditional finance) on the one hand, and from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the part of behavioral finance), and on the other hand, there is indeed some luck. As the saying goes, the right place and the right time are harmonious, and no one can be less.</p><p>So, what did he do right to achieve such investment achievements? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or self-defense?<b>This time, let's talk about investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding of analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the small and insignificant market value factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factor, and introduced AQR's quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta), forming a new FF five-factor model to more accurately divide the contribution of factors. The assumptions and premises of the specific model will not be repeated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The attribution analysis of Berkshire's excess returns is split above. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2%. In other words, Buffett can achieve such achievements, half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune), and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>Among them, it should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market capitalization has a negative contribution. It cannot be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here. It may also be that there are discussions on the choice of time periods or indicators. Looking at the new FF5 model that we have improved, we can find that most of the excess returns that have not been explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them is explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the low financing cost, the use of high leverage, the purchase of safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and the long-term holding. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify profits. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the perspective of financing, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He uses debt to drive investment and invests to expand the debt cycle model.</p><p>To sum up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. One third of his success depends on the sky (betting on the luck of the times and the country), and most of it depends on people (his personal investment ability is too excellent).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people all over the world, and there is only a Buffett? Is it just luck? Maybe all the good luck of the whole world is concentrated on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? Still in the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first made a simple CAPM regression analysis on Berkshire's rate of return, and the results were as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where the beta is about 0.65, the cross-sectional alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's null hypothesis that the excess return is 0. Furthermore, from the rate of return, we can see that the excess annualized rate of return obtained by the simple CAPM model has reached 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of yield minus the variance of market yield) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their annual excess returns obey the normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fitting times, and the results are as shown in the following figure:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the figure above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, only 14 of the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck) finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line has been almost always at the top of the entire random fitting part throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained its \"super god\" performance for a long time and has been stable within the top 0.2% range. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still think that they don't agree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the rate of return of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose to look more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Divide 14 investors who perform better than Buffett into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and take the largest, 75% percentile, 25% percentile and smallest investor as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980 ~ 2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Friends, have you noticed that these investors who ultimately performed better than Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage at all! Take the best performing (blue) as an example. Before 2005, its performance had been worse than Buffett for nearly 25 years. It caught up with and surpassed Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have long been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in the actual situation. First of all, the independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term unchanged investment, regardless of personal life, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even though this model has all kinds of flaws, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Stand up and act yourself, have a clear understanding of the circle of competence</p><p>Value investing, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money whose value recovers after the oversold created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, whether it is because the company really has poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging part of value investing. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and investment behavior against human nature.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors overly pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, causing these \"beautiful\" stocks to be overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So, in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high-valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low-valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, regardless of his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, his and Munger's behavioral and psychological superiority, and their accumulated practice over time are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human natural cognitive biases (Cognitive Bias) and emotional biases (Emotional Bias). Buffett and Munger's decision-making methods, cognitive abilities, or emotional discipline are all complementary to Buffett's advantages and performance. In particular, Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, has an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural charismatic characteristics, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The weird and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both the above factors and the investment framework Buffett is good at can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely, overestimation (Over Estimation), overplacement (Over Placement) and overprecision (Over Precision).</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to wrong financial and other decisions for a long time and consistently.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key point is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the prejudice of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often called \"the root of all prejudice\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all prejudices, and are very cautious about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the impact of overconfidence on decision-making. adverse effects. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess the scope of their knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being excellent.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of more than 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times. Their performance is far better than that of the S&P 500 index, which has performed well. Part of Buffett's income is due to the dividends of the market environment, but more due to his personal stock selection strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to defeat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger's personal charm and character, as well as his great philosophical system, are the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical performance.</p><p>However, even if it is a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger, its performance has significantly underperformed the market from time to time in history. If value investing can outperform the market at all times, then countless investors will inevitably pour in, which will lead to the failure of value investing strategies. It is precisely the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market efficiency hypothesis untenable and brings opportunities for firm value investors to outperform the market in the long term.</p><p>However, value investing is also a double-edged sword for the natural high tracking error of the market. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing unable to tolerate tracking errors. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from the noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our beliefs in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long period of value investment. cycle.</p><p>In this way, encourage each other.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n91-year-old Buffett: Still going through the cycle, value investing will not step down from the altar\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 15:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930 in the small town of Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he is 91 years old.</p><p>Someone once asked Buffett about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>\"Physically, I have no value, only a little residual value left. It's really useless, but it doesn't prevent me from working, feeling happy or thinking. I don't feel that my enjoyment and love of life have decreased in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I am in is becoming more and more interesting. It's a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name always has a strong legendary color, from American Express to Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from fire and water. At the same time, its concept of \"value investment\" has gradually become the creed of value investors. Not only that, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, is also at the top of the contempt chain because of the sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he was admitted to Columbia University Business School and learned from Benjamin Graham, who is known as the \"father of value investors\". Under Graham's door, Buffett is like a duck to water.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought his first Berkshire stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire. Since then, the nature of Berkshire's business has changed. It is no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as an operating platform, constantly acquiring other lucrative companies and equity, and creating investment myths.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, the compound annual growth rate of Berkshire's book value was 18.7%, significantly exceeding the 9.7% of the S&P 500 index. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (that is, more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 Index's growth rate was 15,019%. This is only the increase in book value, and Berkshire's intrinsic value has grown much more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source : WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you bought $10,000 of Berkshire stock in 1965, after 53 years of uncanny operation by Buffett, its market price today has become about $247 million-it is worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and precise. The victory of these \"battles\", relying on the power of compound interest, pushed Berkshire into the top ten listed companies in the United States by market value.</p><p><b>See's Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett bought See's Candies for $25 million under the name of a blue-chip printing company (which was soon merged into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>The average annual sales volume of See's candy has grown slowly, and the increase in unit price has led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett said: See's candy is much more valuable than its book value. It is a brand enterprise, and its products can be sold at a price higher than the production cost, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire, of which only $32 million was consumed to supplement the company's working capital. After paying the corporate profit tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive enterprises.</p><p>See-Poetry has brought many new sources of cash to Berkshire, which is just like the description of Berkshire in the Bible: \"plump, fertile and fertile\".</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million in shares of the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). In 1980, Buffett once again bought a large amount of GEICO shares, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, with a total cost of US $47.14 million. In the 15 years after 1980, GEICO continued to buy back the company's shares, and Berkshire's equity share continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's equity share had increased to 50% and spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% shares. After owning all the equity, GEICO continues to contribute free insurance float to Berkshire for investment, helping Berkshire's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep relationship with the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO). As early as 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about 4 hours explaining the operating model of insurance companies to Buffett in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO The core competitive advantage lies in the low-cost advantage brought by the direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly anticipated commercial castle, then the cost and expense difference between GEICO and its peers is its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble because of the contradiction between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its share price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began to buy a large number of Coca-Cola shares. By the end of 1988, he held a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, it continued to increase its holdings, doubling the total number of shares held to 23.35 million shares, with a total cost of 1.024 billion. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So far, Coca-Cola is still Berkshire's heavyweight stock, accounting for 9.79% of the total holdings, holding 400 million shares, with a market value of more than 20 billion US dollars. The total dividends received during the period were approximately 6 billion US dollars.</p><p>Buffett is a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks Coke every day and has been living this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I can live one more year by eating only healthy vegetables such as asparagus and broccoli every day, and drinking Coke and chocolate every day can make me happier but lose my life by one year, then I am willing to exchange one year of my life for such happiness. This is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an excellent company, and the management is concerned about the return on capital and tangible cash earnings of shareholders. The company can not only operate asset-light business, but also obtain strong profitability. The company's growth has a long history of continuity, and the outlook for the next few decades is also clear. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic cases scattered in Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which started buying in 1973, had an equity swap in 2014, with an annualized return of 12%;</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who bought it in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire by 2000;</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began to buy in 1988, sold all of it in 2000, with a total pre-tax income of about $3 billion;</p><p>All PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were sold from July to October 2007, with pre-tax investment income of approximately US $3.55 billion;</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>One by one, the vivid cases not only form outstanding investment performance, but also contain changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent enterprise learner, who can quickly and accurately distinguish the complex keys of a company. He can veto an investment in two minutes and make major investment decisions in two days of analysis. He is always ready. As he says in the company's annual report, \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about the trend of the short-term stock market, emphasizing that determining the intrinsic value of the company and a fair and safe price are the elements of investment. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or outside his circle of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that in his 40-year career, the results of 12 investment decisions have made him unique.</p><p><b>Buffett is not outdated, value investing is still on the altar</b></p><p>As a living stock god, your excellent historical performance must be the object that everyone is competing to learn and deconstruct. However, many academic studies do not have a very high consensus on his excellent historical performance, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, there has been an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha. This paper concluded that Buffett's excess returns come from investing in safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and because Berkshire The ultra-low capital cost of insurance business implies 1.4 ~ 1.6 times leverage in returns.</p><p>However, so far, there are not many studies to analyze Buffett's performance from the perspective of behavioral finance. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my opinion, successful investment will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgments with investment actions to achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a strong advocate of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational.</p><p>From my research experience, Buffett's excellent historical performance comes from his investment style and capital cost (that is, the part of quantitative traditional finance) on the one hand, and from his and Munger's investment behavior (that is, the part of behavioral finance), and on the other hand, there is indeed some luck. As the saying goes, the right place and the right time are harmonious, and no one can be less.</p><p>So, what did he do right to achieve such investment achievements? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or self-defense?<b>This time, let's talk about investment ability, luck and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment ability is the core</p><p>First, we borrow the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding of analyzing Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). At the same time, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removed the small and insignificant market value factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factor, and introduced AQR's quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and beta factor BAB (Betting Against Beta), forming a new FF five-factor model to more accurately divide the contribution of factors. The assumptions and premises of the specific model will not be repeated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The attribution analysis of Berkshire's excess returns is split above. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profit. Among them, the contribution of the market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2%. In other words, Buffett can achieve such achievements, half thanks to the long-term rise of the market (national fortune), and half thanks to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>Among them, it should be noted that the attribution analysis shows that the small market capitalization has a negative contribution. It cannot be absolutely said that this factor has no effect here. It may also be that there are discussions on the choice of time periods or indicators. Looking at the new FF5 model that we have improved, we can find that most of the excess returns that have not been explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, and a considerable part of them is explained by two factors: high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's amazing performance is mainly attributed to the low financing cost, the use of high leverage, the purchase of safe, high-quality and cheap stocks, and the long-term holding. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify profits. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance. If only blindly high leverage, it will reduce its returns. From the perspective of financing, Buffett's financing sources are mainly AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income. He uses debt to drive investment and invests to expand the debt cycle model.</p><p>To sum up: Choosing high-quality, low-beta, high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Balao himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. One third of his success depends on the sky (betting on the luck of the times and the country), and most of it depends on people (his personal investment ability is too excellent).</p><p>Luck is always for the prepared</p><p>But some people may ask, billions of people all over the world, and there is only a Buffett? Is it just luck? Maybe all the good luck of the whole world is concentrated on this one person? Let's study, is it a man or a god on the altar? Still in the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first made a simple CAPM regression analysis on Berkshire's rate of return, and the results were as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where the beta is about 0.65, the cross-sectional alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass the significance test, indicating that we reject Buffett's null hypothesis that the excess return is 0. Furthermore, from the rate of return, we can see that the excess annualized rate of return obtained by the simple CAPM model has reached 11.52%. From the perspective of risk, it can be calculated that the volatility of its excess return (the square root of the total variance of yield minus the variance of market yield) is 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The returns of these investors are completely random, and their annual excess returns obey the normal distribution with a mean value of 0 and a variance equal to 16.83%;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the ups and downs during the period.</p><p></li></ul>Do 10,000 random fitting times, and the results are as shown in the following figure:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the figure above, the blue line indicates Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the figure, only 14 of the 10,000 investors who obey Buffett's income distribution but fluctuate randomly (by luck) finally achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Moreover, it can also be seen from the chart that Buffett's growth line has been almost always at the top of the entire random fitting part throughout the holding period.</p><p>It has maintained its \"super god\" performance for a long time and has been stable within the top 0.2% range. This must not be random luck, but real investment strength. Some friends may still think that they don't agree. There are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are better than Buffett. Then let's take out the rate of return of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we will choose to look more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Divide 14 investors who perform better than Buffett into four groups according to the size of the annualized rate of return, and take the largest, 75% percentile, 25% percentile and smallest investor as the representative of each group;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized rate of return during the same period (1980 ~ 2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Friends, have you noticed that these investors who ultimately performed better than Buffett (above the red baseline) may not survive in the early stage at all! Take the best performing (blue) as an example. Before 2005, its performance had been worse than Buffett for nearly 25 years. It caught up with and surpassed Buffett, almost thanks to the outbreak after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers may have long been abandoned by investors in reality, so let alone the subsequent blowout.</p><p>It seems that seeing this, friends all think that Buffett on the altar is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in the actual situation. First of all, the independence between investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their yields will not be completely independent; Secondly, the holding period of investment, in real life, 38 years of long-term unchanged investment, regardless of personal life, should only exist on long-term fund management institutions similar to pensions.</p><p>But even though this model has all kinds of flaws, it still illustrates a problem well. Want to defeat Buffett on the altar by luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Stand up and act yourself, have a clear understanding of the circle of competence</p><p>Value investing, in fact, from a behavioral point of view, is to earn money whose value recovers after the oversold created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how to judge an undervalued company, whether it is because the company really has poor fundamentals, loss and market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational cognition? These problems, which are difficult to explain clearly in one sentence, are actually the most challenging part of value investing. Value investment is reverse investment, which requires reverse thinking and investment behavior against human nature.</p><p>Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer in Expectation and Investments:</p><p>The high profit margin in the past year will make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margin in the past year will make investors overly pessimistic. Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny in Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk:</p><p>Some investors tend to be too optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, causing these \"beautiful\" stocks to be overvalued. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So, in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks comes from investors' excessive optimism about \"high-valuation\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"low-valuation\" stocks. Buffett's excellent historical performance, regardless of his extraordinary investment ability and low capital cost, his and Munger's behavioral and psychological superiority, and their accumulated practice over time are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes defeating human natural cognitive biases (Cognitive Bias) and emotional biases (Emotional Bias). Buffett and Munger's decision-making methods, cognitive abilities, or emotional discipline are all complementary to Buffett's advantages and performance. In particular, Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, has an important behavioral factor for Buffett's excellent performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors for Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural charismatic characteristics, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The weird and fiercely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, including some in the press.</p><p>In my opinion, both the above factors and the investment framework Buffett is good at can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in judgment is relatively higher than the actual objective determination. Overconfidence includes three aspects, namely, overestimation (Over Estimation), overplacement (Over Placement) and overprecision (Over Precision).</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, what they have in common is that they can lead to wrong financial and other decisions for a long time and consistently.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but the key point is that these battle-hardened traders often turn a blind eye to this weakness, because the prejudice of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often called \"the root of all prejudice\".</p><p>From the words and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can find that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all prejudices, and are very cautious about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the impact of overconfidence on decision-making. adverse effects. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People misassess the scope of their knowledge for a long time, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of their abilities is one of the most difficult things for human beings to do. Knowing what you don't know is more useful for life and business than being excellent.\" Write at the end</p><p>In the past 38 years, Buffett and Munger have achieved an annualized income of more than 20%, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times. Their performance is far better than that of the S&P 500 index, which has performed well. Part of Buffett's income is due to the dividends of the market environment, but more due to his personal stock selection strength. Among them, buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to defeat Buffett randomly. As Buffett's best partner, Munger's personal charm and character, as well as his great philosophical system, are the behavioral mentor of Buffett's outstanding historical performance.</p><p>However, even if it is a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger, its performance has significantly underperformed the market from time to time in history. If value investing can outperform the market at all times, then countless investors will inevitably pour in, which will lead to the failure of value investing strategies. It is precisely the periodic large tracking error that amplifies the irrational behavior of investors, which makes the market efficiency hypothesis untenable and brings opportunities for firm value investors to outperform the market in the long term.</p><p>However, value investing is also a double-edged sword for the natural high tracking error of the market. 100 value investors have 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and there are also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing unable to tolerate tracking errors. As a value investor, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from the noisy and impetuous stock reviews, we need to strengthen our beliefs in the big fluctuations of the market, and we need to have enough courage to cross the long period of value investment. cycle.</p><p>In this way, encourage each other.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198336","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett），1930年8月30日出生于美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈小镇，今天，他年满91岁。\n曾有人问巴菲特关于生命的问题。巴菲特回答：\n“在身体上我已经没有什么价值了，仅剩一点残值，它真的没有什么用了，但它不妨碍我工作，不妨碍我感到快乐，不妨碍我思考。我不感觉我对生活的享受，和热爱有任何减少，事实上，在某种意义上，我所处的游戏正变得越来越有趣，这是富有竞争的游戏，很大一场游戏，我很享受这场游戏。”\n\n这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩，从当年的美国运通到华盛顿邮报，从可口可乐的经典传奇，到08年金融危机拯救高盛于水火。与此同时，其“价值投资”理念也逐渐成为价值投资者的信条。不仅如此，巴菲特管理的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，也因为几十万美元一股（A类）的天价，雄踞鄙视链的顶端。\n在孩童时期，巴菲特就显现出对数字的敏感。1950年考入哥伦比亚大学商学院，拜师号称“价值投资者之父”的本杰明·格雷厄姆。在格雷厄姆门下，巴菲特如鱼得水。\n1962年，巴菲特买入第一笔伯克希尔股票。1965年年初，巴菲特获得伯克希尔的控制权。之后伯克希尔的经营性质发生了变化，不再是一家单纯的纺纱企业，而是一个投资实体。巴菲特将其作为经营平台，不断地收购其他利润丰厚的公司和股权，创造投资神话。\n1965~2018年，伯克希尔账面价值的复合年增长率为18.7%，明显超过标普500指数的9.7%。1964~2018年，伯克希尔的整体增长率是1,091,899%（即10918倍以上），而标普500指数为15,019%。这仅是账面价值的增长，伯克希尔内在价值的增长远高于其账面价值。\n\n数据来源：《WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders，2018》\n如果你在1965年买入1万美元的伯克希尔股票，经过巴菲特53年鬼斧神工的运作，它今天市场价格就已然变成大约2.47亿美元——值得一提的是这是税后的收入！\n经典案例：巴菲特是怎样做到的\n巴菲特是股权集中投资的代表，其投资案例少且精。这些“战役”的胜利硕果，依靠复利的力量，把伯克希尔推进了美国上市公司市值前十行列。\n喜诗糖果\n1972年，巴菲特以蓝筹印花公司（不久后被并入伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司）的名义花了2500万美元收购了喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）公司。\n喜诗糖果年均销量增长缓慢，而因单价的提升致使净利润暴增。\n\n在1984年3月致股东信里，巴菲特讲道：喜诗糖果比其账面价值要值钱很多。它是一个品牌企业，它的产品能够以高于生产成本的价格销售，并且在未来也会继续拥有这种定价权。\n巴菲特在回顾收购喜诗糖果时，视它为一项梦幻般出色的业务。从1972年至2007年，其为伯克希尔贡献了13.5亿美元的税前利润，只消耗了其中3200万美元用于补充公司的运营资金。在支付了企业利润税之后，剩下的资金来购买其他具有吸引力的企业。\n喜诗公司给伯克希尔带来了许多新的现金源泉，对伯克希尔来说就像《圣经》中形容的一样：“丰腴膏沃且生养众多”。\n政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）\n1976年，巴菲特买进了400万美元的政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）股票。1980年，巴菲特再次大笔买入GEICO股票，总共持有其720万股，占GEICO总股本的33%，总成本4714万美元。1980年之后的15年里，GEICO不断回购公司股票，伯克希尔的股权占比不断提高。1995年，伯克希尔股权占比已提高至50%，并花费23亿美元收购了剩余50%股份。在拥有全部股权后，GEICO不断地为伯克希尔贡献免费的保险浮存金用于投资，帮助伯克希尔的资产净值快速增长。\n巴菲特与政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）的渊源颇深。早在1950年，巴菲特还是格雷厄姆的学生时，就去拜访过GEICO，时任GEICO副总裁的大卫接待了巴菲特并花了约4小时详细地向巴菲特解释保险公司的运营模式，告诉巴菲特GEICO的核心竞争优势在于直销模式带来的低成本优势。\n若说GEICO是一座价值不菲且的众所仰望的商业城堡，那么其与同业间的成本与费用差异就是它的护城河。\n可口可乐\n1987年，可口可乐因百事可乐挑起的装瓶商之间的矛盾而陷入困境，股价较为低迷。1988年，巴菲特开始大量买入可口可乐股份，1988年年底共持有1417万股，成本5.92亿。1989年，继续增持，持股总数翻了一倍达2335万股，总成本10.24亿。1994年，巴菲特又买入了价值2.7亿美元的股票。\n\n至今，可口可乐仍是伯克希尔的重仓股，占总持仓比例的9.79%，持有4亿股，市值超过200亿美元，期间收到的分红总额约为60亿美元。\n巴菲特对可口可乐是真爱。在伯克希尔某次股东大会上，巴菲特表示，自己每天都喝可乐，从1982年开始就一直沿用这样的生活方式。“如果我每天只吃芦笋和西兰花一类的健康蔬菜可以多活一年，每天喝可乐吃巧克力能让我更开心却要折寿一年，那我愿意用一年的生命换取这样的快乐，这就是我的选择。”\n可口可乐是家卓越的公司，管理层关心股东的资本回报和有形现金收益。公司既能经营轻资产业务，同时还能获得极强的盈利能力。公司的增长既有很长的历史持续性，而且未来几十年的前景也很清晰。可口可乐被巴菲特归类为“永恒的持股”。\n散落在伯克希尔年报中的其他经典案例还有：\n1973年开始买入的华盛顿邮报，2014年股权置换，年化收益率12%；\n1986年买入的斯科特费策尔，到2000年，总共为伯克希尔贡献了10.3亿美元的分红；\n1988年开始买入的房地美，2000年全部卖出，税前总收益约为30亿美元；\n2003买入的中国石油H股，2007年7-10月全部卖出，税前投资收益约为35.5亿美元；\n等等。\n一个个鲜活的案例，不仅串成了显赫的投资业绩光耀于世，背后更蕴含着投资哲学及巴菲特投资思维的变化。\n巴菲特是一个出色的企业学习者，能够快速、精确地分辨出一个公司的复杂关键所在。他能在两分钟内否决一项投资，也能在分析的两天之内做出重大投资决策。他时刻准备着，正如他在公司年报中所说：“诺亚并不是等到下雨时才开始建造方舟。”\n他不关心短期股市的走势如何，强调确定公司内在价值和一个公平安全的价格是投资的要素。他从不投资于自己不懂的公司或能力圈之外的公司。在90年代，他曾指出，在他已有的40年职业生涯中，12项投资决策带来的结果已经使他与众不同。\n巴菲特没有过时，价值投资仍在神坛之上\n贵为在世的股神，其优异的历史业绩，一定是大家竞相学习和解构的对象。但众多的学术研究，并没有对其优异的历史业绩有非常高的共识，一些学术研究人员甚至将他的表现归功于运气。最近几年有一篇出自AQR的学术论文，叫巴菲特的超额收益（Buffet's Alpha），这篇论文得出结论，巴菲特的超额收益，来自于投资了安全、优质和廉价的股票，并且因为伯克希尔保险业务超低的资金成本，回报隐含了1.4~1.6倍的杠杆。\n但是，迄今为止，还并没有特别多的从行为金融学的角度，分析巴菲特业绩的研究。巴菲特在1987年时说过：\n\n “在我看来，成功的投资将不会来自于神秘的公式，计算机程序或市场的价格所发出的闪烁的信号。相反，投资者若将成功的商业判断与投资行动结合起来，做到知行合一，情绪不受市场波动影响，便会成功。”\n\n其实我并不是一个市场有效性假说的坚决拥护者，我相信市场不是完美的，但也不是完全不理性的。\n从我的研究经验来看，巴菲特优异的历史业绩，一方面来自于他的投资风格和资金成本（也就是定量的传统金融学的部分），另一方面，来自于他和芒格的投资行为（也就是行为金融学的部分），还有一方面，确实有着一些些运气的成分。正所谓，天时地利人和，一个都不能少。\n所以，他到底做对了什么，可以获得如此的投资成就呢？是能力过人，还是运气使然，抑或是立身行己？这次，我们从投资能力、运气和行为金融，这三个方面来聊聊。\n优异的投资能力是核心\n首先，我们借用经典的Fama-French的5因子模型，深入了解分析巴菲特的风格。五因子模型，是在著名的三因子模型之上，加入了盈利因子RMW（Robust Minus Weak）和投资因子CMA（Conservative Minus Aggressive）。同时，我们根据五因子模型的统计结果，对原模型进行了加工，去掉了贡献很小且不显著的市值因子SMB（Small Minus Big）和投资因子，引入了AQR的质量因子QMJ（Quality Minus Junk）和贝塔因子BAB（Betting Against Beta），组成了新FF五因子模型，更加精确地划分因子的贡献。具体模型的假设前提，在这里就不赘述了。\n\n以上将伯克希尔公司的超额收益归因分析进行拆分，从传统的Fama-French五因子模型，可以看出市场本身和超额收益，是最大的两个占比，其次是高价值和高盈利。其中市场本身和超额收益两者的贡献占比达到80.2%，换句话说，巴菲特能取得如此的成就，一半感谢市场长期的上涨（国运），一半得益于自身优秀（能力）。\n其中需要注意的是，归因分析出来发现小市值是负贡献的，这里不能绝对的说这个因子没有作用，也可能是时间段的选择或者指标的选择方面存在商榷。再看经过我们改良过的新FF5模型，可以发现，之前未能被解释的大部分超额收益，从6.66%，下降到了2.40%，被高质量质和低贝塔两个因子解释了相当一部分。\n巴菲特惊人的业绩，主要归功于以较低的融资成本，使用高杠杆，购买安全、高质量又便宜的股票，并长期持有。无论用什么方式研究，都可以发现巴菲特善于使用杠杆来放大收益。但是，高杠杆只能解释一部分其惊人的表现，如果仅仅盲目的高杠杆，反而会降低其收益。从融资端看，巴菲特的融资来源主要是AAA级的优质债券，和公司廉价的保费收入，以负债驱动投资，投资扩大负债的循环模式。\n总结下来：选择高质量、低贝塔、高价值的股票是巴菲特的风格，也就是巴老自己所说的：用一般的价格投资高质量的公司，优于在便宜的价格投资一般的公司。他的成功，三分之一靠天（赌时代和国家的运气），大部分靠人（个人投资能力太优秀）。\n运气永远是给有准备的人\n但是可能有的人就会问了，全世界几十亿人，也就出了一个巴菲特呀？是不是仅仅只是运气好呢？说不定全世界的好运气都集中在这一个人身上了呢？下面我们就来研究，神坛上到底是人还是神？还是在1980年至2017年这38年的时间里，首先我们对伯克希尔公司的收益率作简单的CAPM回归分析，得到结果如下：\n\n其中beta约为0.65，横截距alpha为0.0096,，并且两个参数都通过显著检验，说明我们拒绝巴菲特的超额收益为0的原假设。进一步而言，从收益率上，我们可以看出，通过简单CAPM模型得到的超额年化收益率达到了11.52%。从风险的角度，可以算得其超额收益的波动率（收益率总方差减市场收益率方差的平方根）为16.83%。\n为了更好说明巴菲特的运气成分，我们采用以下模型假设：\n\n在同一个初始时刻，有10000个完全独立的投资者，和巴菲特一起投资了1美元；\n\n\n这些投资者的收益率完全随机，其每一年的超额收益服从均值为0，方差等于16.83%的正态分布；\n\n\n这些投资者会一直坚定地持有到2017年年底，无论期间的涨跌幅。\n\n做10000次的随机拟合，得到结果如下图：\n\n上图中，蓝色的线表示巴菲特的累计收益，橙色的线表示最终累计收益率超过了巴菲特的随机拟合增长。\n从图中可以看出，10000个服从巴菲特收益分布但是随机波动的投资者（凭运气），仅仅只有14位最终获得了比巴菲特高的投资表现！而且从图上还可以看出，在整个持有期内，巴菲特的增长线几乎一直在整个随机拟合部分的顶部。\n长期保持着“超神”的表现，一直稳定在前0.2%的的范围内，这一定不是随机的运气，而是实实在在的投资实力。可能有的小伙伴还会觉得不以为然，还是有14个“天才”比巴菲特厉害的嘛，那我们取出来这14个投资者的收益率，做个简单的研究，看看我们是否会选择看上去更加“牛叉”的他们。\n\n将14个表现优于巴菲特的投资者，按照年化收益率的大小排序分为四组，取最大、75%分位、25%分位和最小的那一位投资者作为每一组代表；\n\n\n比较这四位投资者相对巴菲特的超额收益，在同时期内（1980年~2017年），比较10年滚动年化收益率。\n\n\n小伙伴们有木有发现，这些最终表现优于巴菲特（红色基准线之上）的投资者，可能根本在前期就活不下来喂！以表现最好的（蓝色）举个例子，其在2005年之前，在近25年的时间内，表现一直比巴菲特差，赶上并超过巴菲特，几乎是得益于2010年之后的爆发。\n这样的基金经理，在现实中恐怕早已被投资人所抛弃了，所以更谈不上之后的井喷式爆发。\n似乎看到这里，小伙伴们都认为神坛之上的巴菲特遥不可及。但是，这个模型在实际情况中却存在许多问题。首先，投资人之间的独立性。即便每个人都持有不一样的股票或资产，他们之间的收益率也不会是完全独立的；其次，投资的持有期，在实际生活中，38年的长期不变的投资，在不考虑个人寿命的情况下，应该只存在类似养老金的长期资金管理机构之上了。\n但是即便这个模型存在种种缺陷，但还是很好地说明了一个问题，想靠运气打败神坛上的巴菲特？难得很。\n立身行己，对能力圈清楚的认知\n价值投资，其实从行为学的角度来看，就是在赚取由于市场对坏消息过激的反应创造出来的超跌后价值回升的钱。但如何判断价值被低估的公司，是因为公司确实基本面差、丧失和市场地位，还是因为市场在不理性的认知下过度反应了呢？这些难以一句话解释清楚的问题，其实就是价值投资最具挑战性的地方。价值投资是逆向投资，逆向投资要求有逆向思维，而且要求有逆人性的投资行为。\nNicola Gennaioli，Yueran Ma，Andrei Shleifer 在《Expectation and Investments》中指出：\n\n 过往一年高的利润率，会使得投资人过度乐观；而过往一年低的利润率，会使得投资人过度悲观。\n\nJosef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny在《Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk》中指出：\n\n 一些投资人往往对过往表现好的股票过于乐观，导致这些“漂亮的”股票估值过高。\n\nJoseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So在《Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/ Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach》中指出：\n\n 股票的错误定价来自于投资人对于“高估值”股票的过度乐观和对“低估值”股票的过度悲观。\n\n巴菲特优异的历史业绩，抛开其过人的投资能力和低廉的资金成本，他和芒格在行为和心理上高人一等、日积月累的修行，也是成功的必要条件。\n这包括战胜人类天生的认知偏见（Cognitive Bias）和情感偏见（Emotional Bias）。巴菲特和芒格的决策方式、认知能力或情感纪律，都是巴菲特优势业绩的互补。特别是芒格这位投资和哲学大师，对于巴菲特的影响，都是巴菲特优异业绩的重要行为因素。\n芒格在2014年，定义过巴菲特成功的四个因素：1. 巴菲特的结构性的个人魅力特征，2. 伯克希尔的结构性的决策体系，3. 好的运气，4. 一些股东的、其他仰慕者的、包括新闻界中的一些人的怪异而又激烈的传染性的奉献精神。\n在我看来，不管是上述的因素，还是巴菲特擅长的投资框架，都能减少过度自信偏见（Over-Confident Bias）对投资决策的影响。过度自信偏见是指我们对判断的主观信心相对高于实际客观确定的情况，过度自信包含三个方面，即过度估计（Over Estimation），过度放置（Over Placement）和过度精确（Over Precision）。\n尽管不同类型的过度自信的后果并不相同，但它们的共同点是：会长久和持续地导致错误的财务和其他决策。\n一些研究表明，过度自信不仅是金融市场交易员的普遍弱点，关键是这些身经百战的交易员对这个弱点经常会熟视无睹，因为过度自信这个偏见，深深的根植于人类的潜意识，常被称为“所有偏见的根源”。\n从巴菲特和芒格的文字和演讲中，我们能发现他们敏锐地意识到了过度自信这个所有偏见的根源，并对其非常的小心谨慎，采取一系列的手段，避免或者尽量最小化过度自信对决策的不良影响。就像芒格所说的：\n\n “人们长期错误地评估自己的知识范围，这是人性最基本的特征之一。知道自己的能力范围，是人类要做的最困难的事情之一。知道自己不知道的东西，对生活和业务而言，比变得出色更有用。”\n\n写在最后\n38年间，巴菲特和芒格一起，获得了年化超20%的收益，累计上涨1100多倍，业绩远远优于本来表现还就不错的标普500指数。巴菲特的收益有一部分得益于市场大环境的红利，但更多的归功于个人的选股实力，其中买入高质量、低波动且高价值的股票是其投资风格。\n巴菲特所获得超额收益也不是运气成分，想靠随机打败巴菲特几乎不现实。而芒格作为巴菲特最好的搭档，其个人魅力和性格，以及其伟大的哲学体系，是巴菲特优异历史业绩的行为导师。\n然而就算是强如巴菲特和芒格的组合，其业绩在历史上，也有时不时大幅度跑输大盘的时候。如果价值投资每时每刻都能跑赢大盘，那么必然会有无数的投资人涌入，从而导致价值投资策略失效。而正是有周期性的较大的跟踪误差，放大了投资人的不理性行为，才使得市场有效性假说不成立，为坚定的价值投资者在长周期上跑赢市场带来了机会。\n然而价值投资对市场天然的高跟踪误差，也是一把双刃剑。100个价值投资者有100个相信价值投资的理由，也有100个践行价值投资却无法忍受跟踪误差而失败的惨痛经历。作为一个价值投资者，我们需要持有被华尔街无穷鄙视的股票，我们需要远离喧闹浮躁的神股评，我们需要在市场的大波动中坚定信念，我们更需要有足够大的勇气穿越价值投资的长周期。\n以此，共勉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835733147,"gmtCreate":1629743259689,"gmtModify":1676530118050,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835733147","repostId":"2161772849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2161772849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629740700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161772849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 01:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a \"rising chorus\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161772849","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800...","content":"<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Monday (August 23rd), the US Dollar Index continued to fall in the US market, and refreshed as low as 93.01 on a new day, due to profit-taking caused by market doubts about the direction of US monetary policy; The fall of the US dollar and the worries caused by the raging COVID-19 pandemic boosted gold, and spot gold finally broke through the $1,800 mark, up $30 from the daily low; The crude oil market was boosted by the weakening of the US dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China. U.S. WTI crude oil rose sharply by 6%; The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, with the Dow rising 300 points or 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1.6%. As COVID-19 pandemic continues to counterattack, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of tapering quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>The data released by the United States during the day is mixed: the United States in August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The initial value of the service PMI recorded 55.2, the lowest since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 61.2 in August from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>Agency commentary said that U.S. business activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August on the back of raw material shortages, labor shortages and rising new crown cases. The pullback in PMIs this month highlights the extent to which supply chain disruptions have hit companies already struggling to meet demand. Service suppliers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and securing supply.</p><p><strong>However, another data released later performed strongly: the U.S. existing home sales data in July was 5.99 million, compared with the expected 5.81 million, and the previous value was revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to agency comments, existing home sales in the United States increased for the second consecutive month in July, as house prices fell from the previous month's record level due to moderate improvement in inventory. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales from last year's 14-year high may be over.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday, recording its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week, as doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy triggered profit-taking.</p><p>Riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weaker dollar, all of which rose more than 0.5%.</p><p>The US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering pandemic-era stimulus before Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In the U.S. market, the US Dollar Index, which measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01. It hit a high of 93.73 last Friday, the highest level since early November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Friday that if the virus hurts the economy, he may reconsider whether it is necessary to start tapering bond purchases early. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Fed official to say that tapering should be made as soon as possible, and his view showed that the hawks of the Fed wavered before the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>\"Kaplan said he could adjust his view on asset purchases if cases of the Delta variant continue to rise, so the Fed's dovish comments weighed on the dollar as rising concerns about Delta were bad for the dollar,\" a Japanese bank trader said.</p><p>Some analysts believe further spread of the variant could derail the Federal Reserve's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program by year-end.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the timeline for the Federal Reserve to scale back its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. The event takes place on Thursdays and Fridays. The Fed had originally decided to hold its meetings in a mixture of virtual and in-person formats, but last Friday decided to go all virtual given rising virus risks.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his speech for clues on the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>Nomura Securities analyst Amemiya said in a note that Chairman Powell's speech will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\" which \"may suggest that his speech may be more short-term.\"</p><p>Amemiya added: \"Given the deterioration of recent data releases and the pandemic situation, some of the risks we see Powell focusing on are increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID cases.\" \"At the very least, we think recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a tapering in December, although the FOMC favors a November announcement ahead of its July meeting.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial</a>Group strategists said in a report, \"Risk aversion will support the dollar. Although a cautious Fed should narrow the gains of the dollar, given the rising risk of novel coronavirus pneumonia, we need to make some adjustments to the year-end foreign exchange forecast to show that the depreciation of the dollar is reduced.\"</p><p>Gold prices were boosted as the dollar retreated and worries lingered that the intensification of the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia could hinder global economic growth.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, setting a new daily high of $1,806.37, an increase of $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(Spot gold 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, pulling back from a nine-and-a-half-month high last week, sending gold prices lower for other currency holders.</p><p>\"The dollar weakened slightly, offsetting the impact of higher yields and helping gold prices,\" said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the near term, we don't expect much to change as we wait for Jackson Hole to get a sign of whether the Fed is heading towards tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Gold prices will continue to move \"moderately higher\" on a weakening dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets, analysts said in a research note.</p><p>\"But for gold to move significantly higher, there will have to be a general safe-haven event, such as a resurgence of inflation fears, which will trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges,\" they said.</p><p>Oil jumped, ending its worst seven-day losing streak for crude prices since 2019, as the dollar pulled back and traders saw the recent sell-off as overdone.</p><p><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark of U.S. crude oil, are now up $3.65, trading at $65.79 a barrel, an increase of 5.87%. Earlier in the day, oil prices rose more than 6% to hit an intraday high of $66.00 a barrel, the best one-day gain since November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(WTI crude oil futures 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The sharp rise marks a turnaround for the contract from last week's nearly 9% drop, its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and its second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed last Friday at its lowest level since May 20.</p><p>Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose 5%, or $3.20, to $68.38 a barrel on Monday, after the week when oil prices hit their worst level since October 2020.</p><p>\"The news of zero new Chinese cases certainly provides a tailwind as it adds a glimmer of light at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic tunnel, bringing a breath of fresh air to the demand pattern,\" noted Blue Line Futures analysts. \"Moreover, the dollar has pulled back from recent highs, providing broad support to commodity markets.\"</p><p>Oil prices fell after fears of a slowdown in demand amid the spread of the Delta variant in Novel Coronavirus, leading to new lockdowns in countries including Japanese and New Zealand. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also showed an increase in gasoline inventories and increased production by U.S. producers.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms say the sell-off looks overdone.</p><p>\"We view price weakness as excessive and believe it has more to do with the psychology of market participants than with the deterioration of fundamental data,\" Commerzbank analysts noted.</p><p>U.S. stocks were higher in early trading Monday after a volatile week for U.S. stocks as investors focused on a key event that could hint at a tapering of stimulus package by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><strong>The Dow Jones gained 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Source: CNBC)</p><p>Major stock indexes are starting to recover after a week of losses as investors grow concerned that a possible move by the Federal Reserve to pull back monetary stimulus could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow fell 1.1% last week and the S&P 500 dropped nearly 0.6%, ending a two-week winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler, said in a note: \"We suspect that upcoming changes in monetary policy, the shift in growth versus value, and the upward trajectory of novel coronavirus pneumonia cases are challenging investor confidence.\"</p><p>Major indexes are set to modest gains in August. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of private wealth management, said, \"August has historically been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are currently worried.\"</p><p>\"The rise in cases in novel coronavirus pneumonia and the downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on vacation.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>Gold</li><li>US Stock Market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Existing Home Sales</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a \"rising chorus\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA carnival feast for the bulls! The Fed in a dilemma? The U.S. dollar plunges high and the financial market plays a \"rising chorus\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-24 01:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News (North America) News On Monday (August 23rd), the US Dollar Index continued to fall in the US market, and refreshed as low as 93.01 on a new day, due to profit-taking caused by market doubts about the direction of US monetary policy; The fall of the US dollar and the worries caused by the raging COVID-19 pandemic boosted gold, and spot gold finally broke through the $1,800 mark, up $30 from the daily low; The crude oil market was boosted by the weakening of the US dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China. U.S. WTI crude oil rose sharply by 6%; The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, with the Dow rising 300 points or 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1.6%. As COVID-19 pandemic continues to counterattack, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of tapering quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>The data released by the United States during the day is mixed: the United States in August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The initial value of the service PMI recorded 55.2, the lowest since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 61.2 in August from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>Agency commentary said that U.S. business activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August on the back of raw material shortages, labor shortages and rising new crown cases. The pullback in PMIs this month highlights the extent to which supply chain disruptions have hit companies already struggling to meet demand. Service suppliers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and securing supply.</p><p><strong>However, another data released later performed strongly: the U.S. existing home sales data in July was 5.99 million, compared with the expected 5.81 million, and the previous value was revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to agency comments, existing home sales in the United States increased for the second consecutive month in July, as house prices fell from the previous month's record level due to moderate improvement in inventory. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales from last year's 14-year high may be over.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday, recording its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week, as doubts about the direction of U.S. monetary policy triggered profit-taking.</p><p>Riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weaker dollar, all of which rose more than 0.5%.</p><p>The US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering pandemic-era stimulus before Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In the U.S. market, the US Dollar Index, which measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01. It hit a high of 93.73 last Friday, the highest level since early November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said on Friday that if the virus hurts the economy, he may reconsider whether it is necessary to start tapering bond purchases early. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Fed official to say that tapering should be made as soon as possible, and his view showed that the hawks of the Fed wavered before the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>\"Kaplan said he could adjust his view on asset purchases if cases of the Delta variant continue to rise, so the Fed's dovish comments weighed on the dollar as rising concerns about Delta were bad for the dollar,\" a Japanese bank trader said.</p><p>Some analysts believe further spread of the variant could derail the Federal Reserve's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program by year-end.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on the timeline for the Federal Reserve to scale back its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. The event takes place on Thursdays and Fridays. The Fed had originally decided to hold its meetings in a mixture of virtual and in-person formats, but last Friday decided to go all virtual given rising virus risks.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his speech for clues on the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>Nomura Securities analyst Amemiya said in a note that Chairman Powell's speech will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\" which \"may suggest that his speech may be more short-term.\"</p><p>Amemiya added: \"Given the deterioration of recent data releases and the pandemic situation, some of the risks we see Powell focusing on are increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID cases.\" \"At the very least, we think recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a tapering in December, although the FOMC favors a November announcement ahead of its July meeting.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial</a>Group strategists said in a report, \"Risk aversion will support the dollar. Although a cautious Fed should narrow the gains of the dollar, given the rising risk of novel coronavirus pneumonia, we need to make some adjustments to the year-end foreign exchange forecast to show that the depreciation of the dollar is reduced.\"</p><p>Gold prices were boosted as the dollar retreated and worries lingered that the intensification of the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia could hinder global economic growth.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, setting a new daily high of $1,806.37, an increase of $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(Spot gold 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, pulling back from a nine-and-a-half-month high last week, sending gold prices lower for other currency holders.</p><p>\"The dollar weakened slightly, offsetting the impact of higher yields and helping gold prices,\" said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the near term, we don't expect much to change as we wait for Jackson Hole to get a sign of whether the Fed is heading towards tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Gold prices will continue to move \"moderately higher\" on a weakening dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets, analysts said in a research note.</p><p>\"But for gold to move significantly higher, there will have to be a general safe-haven event, such as a resurgence of inflation fears, which will trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges,\" they said.</p><p>Oil jumped, ending its worst seven-day losing streak for crude prices since 2019, as the dollar pulled back and traders saw the recent sell-off as overdone.</p><p><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark of U.S. crude oil, are now up $3.65, trading at $65.79 a barrel, an increase of 5.87%. Earlier in the day, oil prices rose more than 6% to hit an intraday high of $66.00 a barrel, the best one-day gain since November last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(WTI crude oil futures 30-minute trend chart, source: FX168)</p><p>The sharp rise marks a turnaround for the contract from last week's nearly 9% drop, its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and its second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed last Friday at its lowest level since May 20.</p><p>Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose 5%, or $3.20, to $68.38 a barrel on Monday, after the week when oil prices hit their worst level since October 2020.</p><p>\"The news of zero new Chinese cases certainly provides a tailwind as it adds a glimmer of light at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic tunnel, bringing a breath of fresh air to the demand pattern,\" noted Blue Line Futures analysts. \"Moreover, the dollar has pulled back from recent highs, providing broad support to commodity markets.\"</p><p>Oil prices fell after fears of a slowdown in demand amid the spread of the Delta variant in Novel Coronavirus, leading to new lockdowns in countries including Japanese and New Zealand. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also showed an increase in gasoline inventories and increased production by U.S. producers.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms say the sell-off looks overdone.</p><p>\"We view price weakness as excessive and believe it has more to do with the psychology of market participants than with the deterioration of fundamental data,\" Commerzbank analysts noted.</p><p>U.S. stocks were higher in early trading Monday after a volatile week for U.S. stocks as investors focused on a key event that could hint at a tapering of stimulus package by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><strong>The Dow Jones gained 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Source: CNBC)</p><p>Major stock indexes are starting to recover after a week of losses as investors grow concerned that a possible move by the Federal Reserve to pull back monetary stimulus could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow fell 1.1% last week and the S&P 500 dropped nearly 0.6%, ending a two-week winning streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>Craig Johnson, technical market strategist at Piper Sandler, said in a note: \"We suspect that upcoming changes in monetary policy, the shift in growth versus value, and the upward trajectory of novel coronavirus pneumonia cases are challenging investor confidence.\"</p><p>Major indexes are set to modest gains in August. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of private wealth management, said, \"August has historically been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are currently worried.\"</p><p>\"The rise in cases in novel coronavirus pneumonia and the downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on vacation.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>Gold</li><li>US Stock Market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Existing Home Sales</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062913689736.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161772849","content_text":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800美元大关，较日低拉升30美元；原油市场则受到美元走软以及中国零新增确诊病例的提振，美国WTI原油大幅上涨6%；美股三大股指齐涨，其中道指上涨300点或0.8%，纳指则上涨1.6%。在新冠疫情持续反扑之际，美联储将于本周稍晚在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行年度研讨会。美联储主席鲍威尔的经济展望演讲和缩减量化宽松的时间等备受关注。美国日内公布的数据良莠不齐：美国8月Markit服务业PMI初值录得55.2，创去年12月以来新低。 美国8月份制造业PMI初值从7月份的63.4降至61.2。机构评论称，美国企业活动继续放缓，在原材料短缺、劳动力短缺和新冠病例增加的背景下，8月份的增长放缓至八个月低点。本月PMI的回落凸显出供应链中断对已经难以满足需求的企业的打击程度。服务供应商和制造商继续面临吸引工人和获得供应的挑战。不过随后公布的另一项数据表现强劲：美国7月成屋销售数据为599万户，预期581万户，前值修正为587万户。机构点评称，美国7月成屋销售连续第二个月增加，因库存温和改善，房价较前月纪录水准回落。销售额的增长表明，从去年的14年高点来看，今年的销售额下降趋势可能已经结束。美元周一全线下跌，上周录得逾两个月来最大单周升幅，因对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐。澳元、挪威克朗和加元等风险较高的货币是美元走软的主要受益者，这些货币的涨幅均超过了0.5%。美元指数上周触及九个月高点，较5月低点上涨近5%，因投资者进一步押注美联储将先于欧洲和日本开始缩减疫情时期的刺激政策。美市盘中，衡量美元兑其他主要货币表现的美元指数下跌近0.5%，至93.01，上周五兴触及93.73高点，为自去年11月初以来的最高水平。（美元指数30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）但达拉斯联储主席卡普兰上周五表示，如果病毒损害经济，他可能会重新考虑是否有必要提前开始缩减购债规模。卡普兰是知名鹰派人士。卡普兰是第一个表示应该尽早缩债的美联储官员，其看法表明在杰克逊霍尔会议召开前，美联储鹰派有所动摇。“卡普兰表示，如果德尔塔变种病例持续增加，他可能调整对资产购买的看法，因此美联储的鸽派言论打压美元，因对德尔塔的担忧升温对美元不利，”一家日本银行的交易员称。一些分析师认为，该变体的进一步扩散可能会破坏美联储在年底前缩减其大流行时期刺激计划的计划。交易员正急切地等待杰克逊霍尔研讨会，以寻找美联储缩减每月1200亿美元债券购买计划时间表的线索。该活动在周四和周五进行。美联储原本决定以虚拟和现场混合的方式举行会议，但鉴于病毒风险不断上升，上周五决定全部采用虚拟方式。美联储主席鲍威尔将在会议上讨论经济前景，交易商将仔细分析他的讲话，以寻求有关政策收紧时机和步伐的线索。鲍威尔迄今一直在淡化德尔塔事件的影响。野村证券分析师Amemiya在一份报告中称，鲍威尔主席的演讲将以“经济展望”为题，“可能暗示他的演讲可能更注重短期”。Amemiya补充说:“鉴于最近公布的数据的恶化和大流行形势，我们看到鲍威尔关注的一些风险是，由于最新的新冠病例激增，不确定性增加。”“至少，我们认为美联储官员最近的言论支持了我们的观点，即美联储将在12月宣布缩减购债规模，尽管FOMC倾向于在7月会议之前在11月宣布。”三菱日联金融集团策略师在一份报告中称，“风险规避将支撑美元。尽管谨慎的美联储应缩小美元的涨幅，但鉴于新冠肺炎风险上升，我们需要对年底外汇预测进行一些调整，以显示美元贬值幅度减小。”随着美元回落，市场对新冠肺炎疫情加剧可能阻碍全球经济增长的担忧挥之不去，金价受到提振上涨。日内稍早，现货金冲破1800美元大关，刷新日高至1806.37美元，较日低拉升30美元。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）美元指数下跌0.3%，从上周九个半月的高点回落，令其他货币持有者的黄金价格下跌。“美元小幅走软，抵消了收益率上升的影响，并扶助金价，”盛宝银行分析师Ole Hansen表示。“短期内，我们预计不会有太大的变化，因为我们正在等待杰克逊霍尔得到一个迹象，即美联储是否正走向缩减规模，或者最新的病毒爆发是否已经给这些预期踩了刹车。”高盛分析师在一份研究报告中表示，由于美元走弱和新兴市场需求复苏，金价将继续“温和走高”。“但黄金若要大幅走高，就必须出现普遍的避险事件，例如通胀担忧卷土重来，这将引发对防御性通胀对冲的需求，”他们表示。油价跳涨，结束了自2019年以来原油价格最糟糕的连续7天下跌，原因是美元回落，交易员认为近期的抛售过度。美国原油基准西德克萨斯中质(WTI)原油期货价格现上涨3.65美元，交投于65.79美元/桶，涨幅5.87%。当天早些时候，油价一度上涨逾6%，触及66.00美元/桶的盘中高点，创下去年11月以来的最佳单日涨幅。（WTI原油期货30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）这一大幅上涨标志着该合约从上周下跌近9%的情况开始好转，这是自2020年10月以来最差的一周表现，也是三周来第二次出现负增长。WTI原油上周五收于5月20日以来的最低水平。周一，国际基准布伦特原油价格上涨了5%，至68.38美元/桶，涨幅为3.20美元，此前一周油价创下了自2020年10月以来的最差水平。蓝线期货分析师指出:“中国零新增病例的消息无疑提供了一股顺风，因为它在新冠疫情隧道的尽头增添了一丝曙光，给需求格局带来了一丝新鲜空气。”“此外，美元已从近期高点回落，为大宗商品市场提供了广泛支撑。”此前，随着新冠病毒德尔塔变种的传播，人们担心需求会放缓，导致日本和新西兰等国实施新一轮封锁，油价随之下跌。此外，作为全球最大原油进口国的中国疲弱的经济数据也给油价带来了压力。美国最新库存报告还显示，汽油库存增加，美国生产商的产量也有所增加。但一些华尔街公司表示，抛售看起来有些过头了。德国商业银行分析师指出:“我们认为价格疲软过度，并认为这更多地与市场参与者的心理有关，而不是与基本面数据的恶化有关。”美国股市周一早盘走高，此前美国股市经历了动荡的一周，投资者关注美联储可能暗示缩减刺激计划的关键事件。道琼斯指数上涨300点，涨幅0.8%。标准普尔500指数上涨1.0%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.6%。（图源：CNBC）由于投资者越来越担心美联储可能撤出货币刺激措施的举动可能会减缓经济复苏，主要股指在经历了一周的下跌后开始回升。道指上周下跌1.1%，标准普尔500指数下跌近0.6%，结束了连续两周的上涨势头。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上周下跌0.7%。Piper Sandler技术市场策略师Craig Johnson在一份报告中表示:“我们怀疑，即将到来的货币政策变化、增长与价值的转变以及新冠肺炎病例的上升轨迹，正在挑战投资者的信心。”8月份主要股指将小幅上涨。本月迄今，标准普尔500指数上涨了1.1%，而道指上涨了0.5%，纳斯达克指数上涨了0.3%。瑞银私人财富管理董事总经理Rod von Lipsey称，“8月历来是市场波动较大的月份，今年也不例外，投资者目前忧心重重。”“新冠肺炎病例的上升和阿富汗的螺旋式下降正在制造一场信心危机，而此时许多投资者正在度假。”\n\n\n\n\n\n                                                    美元\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    黄金\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美国股市\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    原油\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美联储\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    鲍威尔\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    成屋销售\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美国PMI\n                                                \n\n\n\n\n\n分享","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".DJI":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".IXIC":1,"QID":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SPY":1,"NQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}