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The Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September

2021-09-01

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Retail heat check shows mall names amongst August winners, while dollar store stocks struggled

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08:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191815337","media":"zerohedge","summary":"From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting","content":"<p>From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7076de5ca2ad0449cc411eb7af1aaf37\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes that<b>the (options market) “tail” continues to wag the (cash equities market) “dog,” crunched by “yield enhancement” / “income generating” overwriting flows</b>(that even The FT is starting to pay attention to).</p>\n<p>The surge into these 'overwriting' funds...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca90f6652e83b4d50274c525d9d8e0f0\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>...has stuffed dealers to the gills with gamma and delta exposures at extreme levels...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6477f30c8b5147bbb69d941e6aeebfe3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For some context on what this means, the Nomura strategist explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The cumulative flows from the “Gamma Hammer” strangle-seller alone (2 clips a day, ~3x’s a week in approximately 2-3 week expiration 20d strangles) has Dealers long ~$3B in Gamma (and at a cost of nearly ~5.0mm / day in decay) -\n <b>which means that for a generic 100bps selloff, desks would in theory be in the mkt buying ~$2.5B of futures - which in-turn prevents any nascent selloff from developing thanks to said “insulation”</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Which is obvious when we see there hasn't been a 3bps drawdown since May...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b7bf4799004c692996b8cba846acf4\" tg-width=\"1256\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But, McElligott's<b>focus is on the mid-September period as the point where US Equities may locally “peak”:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>...</b>as the now well-publicized Op-Ex cycle “volatility expansion” phenomenon&nbsp;\n <i>(VIX 15th, index / ETFs 17th&nbsp;and set-up for</i>\n <i><b>another large “Gamma unclench”</b></i>\n <i>occurring while then too losing aforementioned Vanna- and Charm- supports into this large serial / qtrly expiration)</i>&nbsp;\n <b>coinciding with the “buyback blackout”</b>kicking-off for US Financials in that 3rd&nbsp;week of September…\n <i>and</i>\n <i><b>all ahead of the FOMC on the 22nd</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Specifically, McElligott notes that<b>The Fed timing here is particularly meaningful</b>- not because the potential for an “official” announcement of “tapering” is some massive deal to markets (I believe we are well past that now) - but more because the potential for movement in the Committee’s economic projections and thus, the “dots,” which could cause some Rates upheaval after being firmly parked within their own range-trade hellscape for the past two months themselves (UST 10Y yields ~1.10-1.40).</p>\n<p>And because of the potential for US Rates volatility around / after the 22nd Fed meeting as the market resets expectations on both the future path of hikes (off the new economic projections) and tapering,<b>I think this “event risk” could then decrease the supply of “short vol” which has been conditioned to step-in the moment that volatility typically expands</b>(i.e. around the Op-Ex cycle, which has finally gone “mainstream” and seemingly now trades like it too….see this past weekend’s write-up from Bloomberg “Options Turn Upheavals Into a Mid-Month Sure Thing for S&amp;P 500”).</p>\n<p><b>This could mean a longer period without the support that comes from said “short vol” flows reflexively swooping-in to save the day, which over the past decade + have acted to reset nascent spikes in volatility and stop the bleeding</b>—IF this time we were to see those flows on hold due to the FOMC event risk a week later, their potential absence could allow for the “delta one” flow to hold more sway than usual of late (all that EPIC $Delta from index / ETF options as a source of de-risking flow, as well as Vol Control strategy de-allocation supply into an rVol move higher off of such an absolutely low base).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 08:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/options-tail-will-continue-wag-stock-markets-dog-until-mid-september><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/options-tail-will-continue-wag-stock-markets-dog-until-mid-september\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/options-tail-will-continue-wag-stock-markets-dog-until-mid-september","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191815337","content_text":"From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...\nNomura's Charlie McElligott notes thatthe (options market) “tail” continues to wag the (cash equities market) “dog,” crunched by “yield enhancement” / “income generating” overwriting flows(that even The FT is starting to pay attention to).\nThe surge into these 'overwriting' funds...\n\n...has stuffed dealers to the gills with gamma and delta exposures at extreme levels...\nFor some context on what this means, the Nomura strategist explains:\n\n The cumulative flows from the “Gamma Hammer” strangle-seller alone (2 clips a day, ~3x’s a week in approximately 2-3 week expiration 20d strangles) has Dealers long ~$3B in Gamma (and at a cost of nearly ~5.0mm / day in decay) -\n which means that for a generic 100bps selloff, desks would in theory be in the mkt buying ~$2.5B of futures - which in-turn prevents any nascent selloff from developing thanks to said “insulation”\n\nWhich is obvious when we see there hasn't been a 3bps drawdown since May...\nBut, McElligott'sfocus is on the mid-September period as the point where US Equities may locally “peak”:\n\n...as the now well-publicized Op-Ex cycle “volatility expansion” phenomenon \n (VIX 15th, index / ETFs 17th and set-up for\nanother large “Gamma unclench”\noccurring while then too losing aforementioned Vanna- and Charm- supports into this large serial / qtrly expiration) \n coinciding with the “buyback blackout”kicking-off for US Financials in that 3rd week of September…\n and\nall ahead of the FOMC on the 22nd\n\nSpecifically, McElligott notes thatThe Fed timing here is particularly meaningful- not because the potential for an “official” announcement of “tapering” is some massive deal to markets (I believe we are well past that now) - but more because the potential for movement in the Committee’s economic projections and thus, the “dots,” which could cause some Rates upheaval after being firmly parked within their own range-trade hellscape for the past two months themselves (UST 10Y yields ~1.10-1.40).\nAnd because of the potential for US Rates volatility around / after the 22nd Fed meeting as the market resets expectations on both the future path of hikes (off the new economic projections) and tapering,I think this “event risk” could then decrease the supply of “short vol” which has been conditioned to step-in the moment that volatility typically expands(i.e. around the Op-Ex cycle, which has finally gone “mainstream” and seemingly now trades like it too….see this past weekend’s write-up from Bloomberg “Options Turn Upheavals Into a Mid-Month Sure Thing for S&P 500”).\nThis could mean a longer period without the support that comes from said “short vol” flows reflexively swooping-in to save the day, which over the past decade + have acted to reset nascent spikes in volatility and stop the bleeding—IF this time we were to see those flows on hold due to the FOMC event risk a week later, their potential absence could allow for the “delta one” flow to hold more sway than usual of late (all that EPIC $Delta from index / ETF options as a source of de-risking flow, as well as Vol Control strategy de-allocation supply into an rVol move higher off of such an absolutely low base).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816360028,"gmtCreate":1630467860564,"gmtModify":1676530311969,"author":{"id":"3586384351056827","authorId":"3586384351056827","name":"lag86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeef5bf10192172b3f8f6634b3cdb576","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586384351056827","authorIdStr":"3586384351056827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816360028","repostId":"1189512968","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189512968","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630462873,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189512968?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 10:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Retail heat check shows mall names amongst August winners, while dollar store stocks struggled","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189512968","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"One of the more important developments in the retail sector during August was the spotlight thrown o","content":"<p>One of the more important developments in the retail sector during August was the spotlight thrown on consumer spending trends with Delta COVID variant headlines disrupting the presumed story of a huge summer spending surge at malls, off-price retailers, big box retailers and specialty retailers. For the most part, retailers continue to report strong sales even as inflation pressures start to become more painful and threaten back-half profit expectations.</p>\n<p>The biggest August gainers in the retail store sector were Dick's Sporting Goods(NYSE:DKS)&nbsp;+36%, Macy's(NYSE:M)&nbsp;+32%, Express(NYSE:EXPR)&nbsp;+26%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIG\">Signet Jewelers</a>(NYSE:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHI.UK\">SIG</a>)&nbsp;+24%&nbsp;and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSM\">Williams-Sonoma</a>(NYSE:WSM)&nbsp;+22%. Victoria's Secret(NYSE:VSCO)burst on the scene with a 40% rally during August, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>(NYSE:GPS)was a mall sector disappointment with an&nbsp;8.3% drop&nbsp;for the month. Walmart(NYSE:WMT)&nbsp;+3.6%&nbsp;and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>(NASDAQ:COST)&nbsp;+6.2%&nbsp;were August winners, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>(NYSE:TGT)gave back some its huge YTD gain with a&nbsp;4.2% decline. There were also monthly losses for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">Dollar Tree</a>(NASDAQ:DLTR)&nbsp;-8.9%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DG\">Dollar General</a>(NYSE:DG)&nbsp;-3.1%&nbsp;and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIG\">Big Lots</a>(NYSE:BIG)&nbsp;-11.0%&nbsp;as stimulus faded and inflation cut into margins on lower-priced items.&nbsp;&nbsp;Interestingly, the increased bets by investors on strong back-to-school and back-to-work spending did not slow momentum for online retailers like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a>(NYSE:W)&nbsp;+21%&nbsp;and Etsy(NASDAQ:ETSY)&nbsp;+18%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d024a7f503ae6afef5a98184f7bff73\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The SPDR&nbsp;S&amp;P Retail ETF(NYSEARCA:XRT)scratched out a&nbsp;1.1% gain&nbsp;for the month.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead to September, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a> warns that the drumbeat of supply chain challenges is getting louder, which creates a tricky setup for the retail sector. Other research firms are also warning that freights and labor costs could increase again this month for major retail chains.</p>\n<p>Higher freight costs were called out on a number of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> earnings calls (Dollar Tree transcript,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BURL\">Burlington</a> Stores transcript,Big Lots transcript)&nbsp;with a warning that Q3 could see more of the same.</p>\n<p>Looking for a sector sleeper? There is amall stock with a Seeking Alpha Quant Rating above the retail pack and in the top 5% of all stocks tracked.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Retail heat check shows mall names amongst August winners, while dollar store stocks struggled</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRetail heat check shows mall names amongst August winners, while dollar store stocks struggled\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-01 10:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3735787-retail-heat-checks-show-mall-names-amongst-august-winners-while-dollar-store-stocks-struggled><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One of the more important developments in the retail sector during August was the spotlight thrown on consumer spending trends with Delta COVID variant headlines disrupting the presumed story of a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3735787-retail-heat-checks-show-mall-names-amongst-august-winners-while-dollar-store-stocks-struggled\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WSM":"Williams-Sonoma Inc","TGT":"塔吉特","DKS":"迪克体育用品","VSCO":"维多利亚的秘密","COST":"好市多","DG":"美国达乐公司","XRT":"零售指数ETF-SPDR标普","W":"Wayfair","M":"梅西百货","ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","DLTR":"美元树公司","SIG":"西格内特珠宝","EXPR":"Express, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3735787-retail-heat-checks-show-mall-names-amongst-august-winners-while-dollar-store-stocks-struggled","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189512968","content_text":"One of the more important developments in the retail sector during August was the spotlight thrown on consumer spending trends with Delta COVID variant headlines disrupting the presumed story of a huge summer spending surge at malls, off-price retailers, big box retailers and specialty retailers. For the most part, retailers continue to report strong sales even as inflation pressures start to become more painful and threaten back-half profit expectations.\nThe biggest August gainers in the retail store sector were Dick's Sporting Goods(NYSE:DKS) +36%, Macy's(NYSE:M) +32%, Express(NYSE:EXPR) +26%, Signet Jewelers(NYSE:SIG) +24% and Williams-Sonoma(NYSE:WSM) +22%. Victoria's Secret(NYSE:VSCO)burst on the scene with a 40% rally during August, while Gap(NYSE:GPS)was a mall sector disappointment with an 8.3% drop for the month. Walmart(NYSE:WMT) +3.6% and Costco(NASDAQ:COST) +6.2% were August winners, while Target(NYSE:TGT)gave back some its huge YTD gain with a 4.2% decline. There were also monthly losses for Dollar Tree(NASDAQ:DLTR) -8.9%, Dollar General(NYSE:DG) -3.1% and Big Lots(NYSE:BIG) -11.0% as stimulus faded and inflation cut into margins on lower-priced items.  Interestingly, the increased bets by investors on strong back-to-school and back-to-work spending did not slow momentum for online retailers like Wayfair(NYSE:W) +21% and Etsy(NASDAQ:ETSY) +18%.\n\nThe SPDR S&P Retail ETF(NYSEARCA:XRT)scratched out a 1.1% gain for the month.\nLooking ahead to September, Wells Fargo warns that the drumbeat of supply chain challenges is getting louder, which creates a tricky setup for the retail sector. Other research firms are also warning that freights and labor costs could increase again this month for major retail chains.\nHigher freight costs were called out on a number of Q2 earnings calls (Dollar Tree transcript,Burlington Stores transcript,Big Lots transcript) with a warning that Q3 could see more of the same.\nLooking for a sector sleeper? There is amall stock with a Seeking Alpha Quant Rating above the retail pack and in the top 5% of all stocks tracked.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WSM":0.9,"ETSY":0.9,"EXPR":0.9,"DKS":0.9,"M":0.9,"DG":0.9,"SIG":0.9,"XRT":0.9,"GPS":0.9,"VSCO":0.9,"COST":0.9,"W":0.9,"DLTR":0.9,"TGT":0.9,"BIG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":816360028,"gmtCreate":1630467860564,"gmtModify":1676530311969,"author":{"id":"3586384351056827","authorId":"3586384351056827","name":"lag86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeef5bf10192172b3f8f6634b3cdb576","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586384351056827","idStr":"3586384351056827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816360028","repostId":"1189512968","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189512968","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630462873,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189512968?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 10:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Retail heat check shows mall names amongst August winners, while dollar store stocks struggled","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189512968","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"One of the more important developments in the retail sector during August was the spotlight thrown o","content":"<p>One of the more important developments in the retail sector during August was the spotlight thrown on consumer spending trends with Delta COVID variant headlines disrupting the presumed story of a huge summer spending surge at malls, off-price retailers, big box retailers and specialty retailers. For the most part, retailers continue to report strong sales even as inflation pressures start to become more painful and threaten back-half profit expectations.</p>\n<p>The biggest August gainers in the retail store sector were Dick's Sporting Goods(NYSE:DKS)&nbsp;+36%, Macy's(NYSE:M)&nbsp;+32%, Express(NYSE:EXPR)&nbsp;+26%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIG\">Signet Jewelers</a>(NYSE:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHI.UK\">SIG</a>)&nbsp;+24%&nbsp;and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSM\">Williams-Sonoma</a>(NYSE:WSM)&nbsp;+22%. Victoria's Secret(NYSE:VSCO)burst on the scene with a 40% rally during August, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>(NYSE:GPS)was a mall sector disappointment with an&nbsp;8.3% drop&nbsp;for the month. Walmart(NYSE:WMT)&nbsp;+3.6%&nbsp;and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>(NASDAQ:COST)&nbsp;+6.2%&nbsp;were August winners, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">Target</a>(NYSE:TGT)gave back some its huge YTD gain with a&nbsp;4.2% decline. There were also monthly losses for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLTR\">Dollar Tree</a>(NASDAQ:DLTR)&nbsp;-8.9%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DG\">Dollar General</a>(NYSE:DG)&nbsp;-3.1%&nbsp;and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIG\">Big Lots</a>(NYSE:BIG)&nbsp;-11.0%&nbsp;as stimulus faded and inflation cut into margins on lower-priced items.&nbsp;&nbsp;Interestingly, the increased bets by investors on strong back-to-school and back-to-work spending did not slow momentum for online retailers like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a>(NYSE:W)&nbsp;+21%&nbsp;and Etsy(NASDAQ:ETSY)&nbsp;+18%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d024a7f503ae6afef5a98184f7bff73\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The SPDR&nbsp;S&amp;P Retail ETF(NYSEARCA:XRT)scratched out a&nbsp;1.1% gain&nbsp;for the month.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead to September, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a> warns that the drumbeat of supply chain challenges is getting louder, which creates a tricky setup for the retail sector. Other research firms are also warning that freights and labor costs could increase again this month for major retail chains.</p>\n<p>Higher freight costs were called out on a number of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> earnings calls (Dollar Tree transcript,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BURL\">Burlington</a> Stores transcript,Big Lots transcript)&nbsp;with a warning that Q3 could see more of the same.</p>\n<p>Looking for a sector sleeper? There is amall stock with a Seeking Alpha Quant Rating above the retail pack and in the top 5% of all stocks tracked.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Retail heat check shows mall names amongst August winners, while dollar store stocks struggled</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRetail heat check shows mall names amongst August winners, while dollar store stocks struggled\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-01 10:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3735787-retail-heat-checks-show-mall-names-amongst-august-winners-while-dollar-store-stocks-struggled><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One of the more important developments in the retail sector during August was the spotlight thrown on consumer spending trends with Delta COVID variant headlines disrupting the presumed story of a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3735787-retail-heat-checks-show-mall-names-amongst-august-winners-while-dollar-store-stocks-struggled\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WSM":"Williams-Sonoma Inc","TGT":"塔吉特","DKS":"迪克体育用品","VSCO":"维多利亚的秘密","COST":"好市多","DG":"美国达乐公司","XRT":"零售指数ETF-SPDR标普","W":"Wayfair","M":"梅西百货","ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","DLTR":"美元树公司","SIG":"西格内特珠宝","EXPR":"Express, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3735787-retail-heat-checks-show-mall-names-amongst-august-winners-while-dollar-store-stocks-struggled","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189512968","content_text":"One of the more important developments in the retail sector during August was the spotlight thrown on consumer spending trends with Delta COVID variant headlines disrupting the presumed story of a huge summer spending surge at malls, off-price retailers, big box retailers and specialty retailers. For the most part, retailers continue to report strong sales even as inflation pressures start to become more painful and threaten back-half profit expectations.\nThe biggest August gainers in the retail store sector were Dick's Sporting Goods(NYSE:DKS) +36%, Macy's(NYSE:M) +32%, Express(NYSE:EXPR) +26%, Signet Jewelers(NYSE:SIG) +24% and Williams-Sonoma(NYSE:WSM) +22%. Victoria's Secret(NYSE:VSCO)burst on the scene with a 40% rally during August, while Gap(NYSE:GPS)was a mall sector disappointment with an 8.3% drop for the month. Walmart(NYSE:WMT) +3.6% and Costco(NASDAQ:COST) +6.2% were August winners, while Target(NYSE:TGT)gave back some its huge YTD gain with a 4.2% decline. There were also monthly losses for Dollar Tree(NASDAQ:DLTR) -8.9%, Dollar General(NYSE:DG) -3.1% and Big Lots(NYSE:BIG) -11.0% as stimulus faded and inflation cut into margins on lower-priced items.  Interestingly, the increased bets by investors on strong back-to-school and back-to-work spending did not slow momentum for online retailers like Wayfair(NYSE:W) +21% and Etsy(NASDAQ:ETSY) +18%.\n\nThe SPDR S&P Retail ETF(NYSEARCA:XRT)scratched out a 1.1% gain for the month.\nLooking ahead to September, Wells Fargo warns that the drumbeat of supply chain challenges is getting louder, which creates a tricky setup for the retail sector. Other research firms are also warning that freights and labor costs could increase again this month for major retail chains.\nHigher freight costs were called out on a number of Q2 earnings calls (Dollar Tree transcript,Burlington Stores transcript,Big Lots transcript) with a warning that Q3 could see more of the same.\nLooking for a sector sleeper? There is amall stock with a Seeking Alpha Quant Rating above the retail pack and in the top 5% of all stocks tracked.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WSM":0.9,"ETSY":0.9,"EXPR":0.9,"DKS":0.9,"M":0.9,"DG":0.9,"SIG":0.9,"XRT":0.9,"GPS":0.9,"VSCO":0.9,"COST":0.9,"W":0.9,"DLTR":0.9,"TGT":0.9,"BIG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815092833,"gmtCreate":1630628672022,"gmtModify":1676530359223,"author":{"id":"3586384351056827","authorId":"3586384351056827","name":"lag86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeef5bf10192172b3f8f6634b3cdb576","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586384351056827","idStr":"3586384351056827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815092833","repostId":"1191815337","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191815337","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630627840,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191815337?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 08:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191815337","media":"zerohedge","summary":"From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting","content":"<p>From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7076de5ca2ad0449cc411eb7af1aaf37\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes that<b>the (options market) “tail” continues to wag the (cash equities market) “dog,” crunched by “yield enhancement” / “income generating” overwriting flows</b>(that even The FT is starting to pay attention to).</p>\n<p>The surge into these 'overwriting' funds...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca90f6652e83b4d50274c525d9d8e0f0\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>...has stuffed dealers to the gills with gamma and delta exposures at extreme levels...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6477f30c8b5147bbb69d941e6aeebfe3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For some context on what this means, the Nomura strategist explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n The cumulative flows from the “Gamma Hammer” strangle-seller alone (2 clips a day, ~3x’s a week in approximately 2-3 week expiration 20d strangles) has Dealers long ~$3B in Gamma (and at a cost of nearly ~5.0mm / day in decay) -\n <b>which means that for a generic 100bps selloff, desks would in theory be in the mkt buying ~$2.5B of futures - which in-turn prevents any nascent selloff from developing thanks to said “insulation”</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Which is obvious when we see there hasn't been a 3bps drawdown since May...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b7bf4799004c692996b8cba846acf4\" tg-width=\"1256\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But, McElligott's<b>focus is on the mid-September period as the point where US Equities may locally “peak”:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>...</b>as the now well-publicized Op-Ex cycle “volatility expansion” phenomenon&nbsp;\n <i>(VIX 15th, index / ETFs 17th&nbsp;and set-up for</i>\n <i><b>another large “Gamma unclench”</b></i>\n <i>occurring while then too losing aforementioned Vanna- and Charm- supports into this large serial / qtrly expiration)</i>&nbsp;\n <b>coinciding with the “buyback blackout”</b>kicking-off for US Financials in that 3rd&nbsp;week of September…\n <i>and</i>\n <i><b>all ahead of the FOMC on the 22nd</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Specifically, McElligott notes that<b>The Fed timing here is particularly meaningful</b>- not because the potential for an “official” announcement of “tapering” is some massive deal to markets (I believe we are well past that now) - but more because the potential for movement in the Committee’s economic projections and thus, the “dots,” which could cause some Rates upheaval after being firmly parked within their own range-trade hellscape for the past two months themselves (UST 10Y yields ~1.10-1.40).</p>\n<p>And because of the potential for US Rates volatility around / after the 22nd Fed meeting as the market resets expectations on both the future path of hikes (off the new economic projections) and tapering,<b>I think this “event risk” could then decrease the supply of “short vol” which has been conditioned to step-in the moment that volatility typically expands</b>(i.e. around the Op-Ex cycle, which has finally gone “mainstream” and seemingly now trades like it too….see this past weekend’s write-up from Bloomberg “Options Turn Upheavals Into a Mid-Month Sure Thing for S&amp;P 500”).</p>\n<p><b>This could mean a longer period without the support that comes from said “short vol” flows reflexively swooping-in to save the day, which over the past decade + have acted to reset nascent spikes in volatility and stop the bleeding</b>—IF this time we were to see those flows on hold due to the FOMC event risk a week later, their potential absence could allow for the “delta one” flow to hold more sway than usual of late (all that EPIC $Delta from index / ETF options as a source of de-risking flow, as well as Vol Control strategy de-allocation supply into an rVol move higher off of such an absolutely low base).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 08:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/options-tail-will-continue-wag-stock-markets-dog-until-mid-september><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/options-tail-will-continue-wag-stock-markets-dog-until-mid-september\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/options-tail-will-continue-wag-stock-markets-dog-until-mid-september","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191815337","content_text":"From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...\nNomura's Charlie McElligott notes thatthe (options market) “tail” continues to wag the (cash equities market) “dog,” crunched by “yield enhancement” / “income generating” overwriting flows(that even The FT is starting to pay attention to).\nThe surge into these 'overwriting' funds...\n\n...has stuffed dealers to the gills with gamma and delta exposures at extreme levels...\nFor some context on what this means, the Nomura strategist explains:\n\n The cumulative flows from the “Gamma Hammer” strangle-seller alone (2 clips a day, ~3x’s a week in approximately 2-3 week expiration 20d strangles) has Dealers long ~$3B in Gamma (and at a cost of nearly ~5.0mm / day in decay) -\n which means that for a generic 100bps selloff, desks would in theory be in the mkt buying ~$2.5B of futures - which in-turn prevents any nascent selloff from developing thanks to said “insulation”\n\nWhich is obvious when we see there hasn't been a 3bps drawdown since May...\nBut, McElligott'sfocus is on the mid-September period as the point where US Equities may locally “peak”:\n\n...as the now well-publicized Op-Ex cycle “volatility expansion” phenomenon \n (VIX 15th, index / ETFs 17th and set-up for\nanother large “Gamma unclench”\noccurring while then too losing aforementioned Vanna- and Charm- supports into this large serial / qtrly expiration) \n coinciding with the “buyback blackout”kicking-off for US Financials in that 3rd week of September…\n and\nall ahead of the FOMC on the 22nd\n\nSpecifically, McElligott notes thatThe Fed timing here is particularly meaningful- not because the potential for an “official” announcement of “tapering” is some massive deal to markets (I believe we are well past that now) - but more because the potential for movement in the Committee’s economic projections and thus, the “dots,” which could cause some Rates upheaval after being firmly parked within their own range-trade hellscape for the past two months themselves (UST 10Y yields ~1.10-1.40).\nAnd because of the potential for US Rates volatility around / after the 22nd Fed meeting as the market resets expectations on both the future path of hikes (off the new economic projections) and tapering,I think this “event risk” could then decrease the supply of “short vol” which has been conditioned to step-in the moment that volatility typically expands(i.e. around the Op-Ex cycle, which has finally gone “mainstream” and seemingly now trades like it too….see this past weekend’s write-up from Bloomberg “Options Turn Upheavals Into a Mid-Month Sure Thing for S&P 500”).\nThis could mean a longer period without the support that comes from said “short vol” flows reflexively swooping-in to save the day, which over the past decade + have acted to reset nascent spikes in volatility and stop the bleeding—IF this time we were to see those flows on hold due to the FOMC event risk a week later, their potential absence could allow for the “delta one” flow to hold more sway than usual of late (all that EPIC $Delta from index / ETF options as a source of de-risking flow, as well as Vol Control strategy de-allocation supply into an rVol move higher off of such an absolutely low base).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863804369,"gmtCreate":1632370047751,"gmtModify":1676530765924,"author":{"id":"3586384351056827","authorId":"3586384351056827","name":"lag86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeef5bf10192172b3f8f6634b3cdb576","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586384351056827","idStr":"3586384351056827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T39.SI\">$SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS LTD(T39.SI)$</a>good","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T39.SI\">$SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS LTD(T39.SI)$</a>good","text":"$SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS 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