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Kellytan

Kellytan

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2023-03-09

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@小虎综合资讯:開盤 | 美股小幅高開，京東跌超5%

2022-06-04

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Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting

2022-11-04

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Great Wall Motors: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%

2022-03-30

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Ferretti's winning rate of one lot is 92.41%, and the subscription of 2 lots is stable

2022-08-24

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2022-07-29

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MINISO Announces Preliminary Findings on Blue Orca Short Selling Report

2022-01-12

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Pony Ma: Tencent is just an ordinary company and can be replaced at any time

2022-09-26

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Tesla cuts price by 8,000 yuan in disguise? Salespeople: Temporary activities

2022-08-04

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The Fed feels it can make a "soft landing" again. What signal does Powell see?

2022-07-30

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2022-06-24

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Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%

2022-06-03

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Pre-market changes | Soared 16%, Okta's financial report showed its power! Tesla cuts staff, share price "shrinks"

2022-03-31

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Are companies included in the delisting risk list by the SEC delisting? SFC Response

2022-03-18

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The boss shouted: "The oil price is $200 at the end of this year!"

2022-02-26

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Market News: The United States seriously considers banning Russia from using SWIFT

2022-02-24

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The Russia-Ukraine crisis shakes the global market! What are the odds of winning a contrarian investment strategy?

2022-02-04

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2022-01-07

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US Treasury yields rises rapidly, and global financial markets sound the alarm

2023-02-02

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@小虎综合资讯:新能源汽車股普漲，法拉第未來大漲超14%

2022-08-05

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\n \n  馬斯克警告ChatGPT之父，避免Ai落入壞人之手\n \n","listText":"馬斯克警告ChatGPT之父，避免Ai落入壞人之手","text":"馬斯克警告ChatGPT之父，避免Ai落入壞人之手","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82241d81ac992601f598cda753f774fa","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82241d81ac992601f598cda753f774fa","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624687926","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"2d672c67753a463ca8010a87e116ab9f","tweetId":"624687926","title":"马斯克警告ChatGPT之父，避免Ai落入坏人之手","videoUrl":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/1677406519405ae854f9ce9e0831edaa659dacea8ae5b.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82241d81ac992601f598cda753f774fa","shareLink":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/1677406519405ae854f9ce9e0831edaa659dacea8ae5b.mp4"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957527807,"gmtCreate":1677425792309,"gmtModify":1677425795809,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957527807","repostId":"624666291","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624666291,"gmtCreate":1677422357000,"gmtModify":1677422357000,"author":{"id":"3577852034187700","authorId":"3577852034187700","name":"经济观察报","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64ac2aa784ef0f271ddeb45c7dc72bc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577852034187700","idStr":"3577852034187700"},"themes":[],"title":"海底撈扭虧爲盈、 呷哺呷哺全面擴張、巴奴加速開店 ，火鍋率先“熱”起來了","htmlText":"經濟觀察網 記者&nbsp;鄭淯心&nbsp;2月24日，海底撈（6862.HK）發佈業績預告顯示，截至2022年12月31日，海底撈年度收入預計不少於346億元，淨利潤不低於13億元，對比上年度淨虧損約41.612億元，實現扭虧爲盈。 除了扭虧爲盈外，海底撈也向記者透露了今年的數據。海底撈數據顯示，其在春節期間客流大幅增長，增長延續到春節後，今年2月14日情人節當天，全國門店接待人次同比增長超25%，2月18日、19日兩天全國門店接待量，也比一月份過年之前的週末客流上升了15%。 其他火鍋企業開年的數據也較爲亮眼。2023年春節，呷哺呷哺總體營收同比增長126%。巴奴的數據顯示，其春節假期期間北京多家門店日平均翻檯率超過6次，河南多地的翻檯率多次超過了8次/日，最高翻檯達到8.81次/日；營業額、上桌數整體對比2022年呈上升趨勢。 客流增長也增加了火鍋品牌的擴張信心，呷哺呷哺已經啓動全面擴張戰略，計劃年內新開超過240家門店，巴奴火鍋則在北京、上海等城市再開新店，並加大在這些城市的滲透力度。 火鍋是中式餐飲第一大品類，其復甦也有着行業風向標的參考意義。和弘諮詢總經理、連鎖經營專家文志宏告訴記者，火鍋會迎來新一輪競爭，今年火鍋品牌競爭的關鍵點是規模化和差異化。 火鍋品類強勢反彈 海底撈業績反轉的原因離不開啄木鳥計劃。 2021年11月，海底撈宣佈“在未來逐漸關停約300家門店”併發布“啄木鳥計劃”。這是海底撈上市之後最大規模的“關店計劃”。據海底撈財報，截至2022年6月底，因“啄木鳥計劃”關停的門店總數爲302家，但是，海底撈的關店計劃並非“永久關店”。據海底撈2022年中報，集團內部會擇機啓動“硬骨頭”門店計劃：一些在啄木鳥計劃中關停的門店如果經過重新評估有望重新開業。 關店只是海底撈自救的方法之一，另一個重要的動作是“區域化管理體系”，基於這一體系海底撈對門店的管控","listText":"經濟觀察網 記者&nbsp;鄭淯心&nbsp;2月24日，海底撈（6862.HK）發佈業績預告顯示，截至2022年12月31日，海底撈年度收入預計不少於346億元，淨利潤不低於13億元，對比上年度淨虧損約41.612億元，實現扭虧爲盈。 除了扭虧爲盈外，海底撈也向記者透露了今年的數據。海底撈數據顯示，其在春節期間客流大幅增長，增長延續到春節後，今年2月14日情人節當天，全國門店接待人次同比增長超25%，2月18日、19日兩天全國門店接待量，也比一月份過年之前的週末客流上升了15%。 其他火鍋企業開年的數據也較爲亮眼。2023年春節，呷哺呷哺總體營收同比增長126%。巴奴的數據顯示，其春節假期期間北京多家門店日平均翻檯率超過6次，河南多地的翻檯率多次超過了8次/日，最高翻檯達到8.81次/日；營業額、上桌數整體對比2022年呈上升趨勢。 客流增長也增加了火鍋品牌的擴張信心，呷哺呷哺已經啓動全面擴張戰略，計劃年內新開超過240家門店，巴奴火鍋則在北京、上海等城市再開新店，並加大在這些城市的滲透力度。 火鍋是中式餐飲第一大品類，其復甦也有着行業風向標的參考意義。和弘諮詢總經理、連鎖經營專家文志宏告訴記者，火鍋會迎來新一輪競爭，今年火鍋品牌競爭的關鍵點是規模化和差異化。 火鍋品類強勢反彈 海底撈業績反轉的原因離不開啄木鳥計劃。 2021年11月，海底撈宣佈“在未來逐漸關停約300家門店”併發布“啄木鳥計劃”。這是海底撈上市之後最大規模的“關店計劃”。據海底撈財報，截至2022年6月底，因“啄木鳥計劃”關停的門店總數爲302家，但是，海底撈的關店計劃並非“永久關店”。據海底撈2022年中報，集團內部會擇機啓動“硬骨頭”門店計劃：一些在啄木鳥計劃中關停的門店如果經過重新評估有望重新開業。 關店只是海底撈自救的方法之一，另一個重要的動作是“區域化管理體系”，基於這一體系海底撈對門店的管控","text":"經濟觀察網 記者 鄭淯心 2月24日，海底撈（6862.HK）發佈業績預告顯示，截至2022年12月31日，海底撈年度收入預計不少於346億元，淨利潤不低於13億元，對比上年度淨虧損約41.612億元，實現扭虧爲盈。 除了扭虧爲盈外，海底撈也向記者透露了今年的數據。海底撈數據顯示，其在春節期間客流大幅增長，增長延續到春節後，今年2月14日情人節當天，全國門店接待人次同比增長超25%，2月18日、19日兩天全國門店接待量，也比一月份過年之前的週末客流上升了15%。 其他火鍋企業開年的數據也較爲亮眼。2023年春節，呷哺呷哺總體營收同比增長126%。巴奴的數據顯示，其春節假期期間北京多家門店日平均翻檯率超過6次，河南多地的翻檯率多次超過了8次/日，最高翻檯達到8.81次/日；營業額、上桌數整體對比2022年呈上升趨勢。 客流增長也增加了火鍋品牌的擴張信心，呷哺呷哺已經啓動全面擴張戰略，計劃年內新開超過240家門店，巴奴火鍋則在北京、上海等城市再開新店，並加大在這些城市的滲透力度。 火鍋是中式餐飲第一大品類，其復甦也有着行業風向標的參考意義。和弘諮詢總經理、連鎖經營專家文志宏告訴記者，火鍋會迎來新一輪競爭，今年火鍋品牌競爭的關鍵點是規模化和差異化。 火鍋品類強勢反彈 海底撈業績反轉的原因離不開啄木鳥計劃。 2021年11月，海底撈宣佈“在未來逐漸關停約300家門店”併發布“啄木鳥計劃”。這是海底撈上市之後最大規模的“關店計劃”。據海底撈財報，截至2022年6月底，因“啄木鳥計劃”關停的門店總數爲302家，但是，海底撈的關店計劃並非“永久關店”。據海底撈2022年中報，集團內部會擇機啓動“硬骨頭”門店計劃：一些在啄木鳥計劃中關停的門店如果經過重新評估有望重新開業。 關店只是海底撈自救的方法之一，另一個重要的動作是“區域化管理體系”，基於這一體系海底撈對門店的管控","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624666291","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957915514,"gmtCreate":1676887507639,"gmtModify":1676887511654,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957915514","repostId":"625776749","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":625776749,"gmtCreate":1676885460000,"gmtModify":1676886672534,"author":{"id":"3574917796328560","authorId":"3574917796328560","name":"钛媒体APP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72948639b39fd795a430fcaa2772851c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574917796328560","idStr":"3574917796328560"},"themes":[],"title":"日定位量超3000億次，北斗應用步入全產業鏈創新的星辰大海","htmlText":"2月18日上午10點，高德地圖與千尋位置戰略合作協議簽約現場，出現了一位重量級嘉賓，他就是北斗衛星導航系統工程總設計師、中國工程院院士楊長風。作爲中國最頂尖的航天系統總體技術與工程管理學家，他的出席無疑爲高德和千尋位置此次的合作增添了關鍵性的加持。 高德和千尋位置宣佈，將共同發起“北斗出行應用創新計劃”，助力北斗這一全球高精尖系統在交通出行場景的廣泛落地。 楊長風在講話中指出，“北斗應用已從解決‘有無’，邁入解決‘更高精度、更加可信、更優服務’的新階段。‘北斗出行應用創新計劃’，是北斗高精度應用面向大衆、面向服務的創新舉措，對北斗產業發展具有重要推動作用，將給衛星導航事業帶來深遠影響。” 簽約儀式現場，高德地圖總裁劉振飛向媒體宣佈，截至2023年1月的最新數據，高德地圖調用北斗衛星日定位量已超過3000億次，創下歷史新高。 3000億背後的故事 日定位量3000億是一個非常龐大的數字，這個數字在去年下半年還是2100億。短短數月，高德地圖調用北斗衛星日定位量就激增了900億次。我們在歡呼北斗系統實現對於國內導航應用定位的全面主導時，也不禁唏噓從0到2100億這20餘年“從無到有”的艱辛歲月。 首先是同場競技的機會。2014年1月，三星電子宣佈GALAXY Note 3國行版的兩個型號(N9006和N9008V)正式支持北斗衛星導航系統，這也是首款支持全球三大衛星導航系統(美國的GPS、俄羅斯的Glonass和中國的北斗)的智能手機。這奠定了導航系統在智能手機上競爭基調：各憑本事，誰強用誰。 但GPS在衛星導航領域具有何種統治力相信已經無需多做贅述。明明是多系統兼容共用的衛星導航，一句耳熟能詳的“手機GPS信號弱”卻在過去幾十年間幾乎完全掩蓋了其他衛星導航系統的作用。 敢於直面問題，是解決問題的第一步。操作系統、芯片等行業無數的案例都證明了，核心技術是一切高精尖科技市場競爭的","listText":"2月18日上午10點，高德地圖與千尋位置戰略合作協議簽約現場，出現了一位重量級嘉賓，他就是北斗衛星導航系統工程總設計師、中國工程院院士楊長風。作爲中國最頂尖的航天系統總體技術與工程管理學家，他的出席無疑爲高德和千尋位置此次的合作增添了關鍵性的加持。 高德和千尋位置宣佈，將共同發起“北斗出行應用創新計劃”，助力北斗這一全球高精尖系統在交通出行場景的廣泛落地。 楊長風在講話中指出，“北斗應用已從解決‘有無’，邁入解決‘更高精度、更加可信、更優服務’的新階段。‘北斗出行應用創新計劃’，是北斗高精度應用面向大衆、面向服務的創新舉措，對北斗產業發展具有重要推動作用，將給衛星導航事業帶來深遠影響。” 簽約儀式現場，高德地圖總裁劉振飛向媒體宣佈，截至2023年1月的最新數據，高德地圖調用北斗衛星日定位量已超過3000億次，創下歷史新高。 3000億背後的故事 日定位量3000億是一個非常龐大的數字，這個數字在去年下半年還是2100億。短短數月，高德地圖調用北斗衛星日定位量就激增了900億次。我們在歡呼北斗系統實現對於國內導航應用定位的全面主導時，也不禁唏噓從0到2100億這20餘年“從無到有”的艱辛歲月。 首先是同場競技的機會。2014年1月，三星電子宣佈GALAXY Note 3國行版的兩個型號(N9006和N9008V)正式支持北斗衛星導航系統，這也是首款支持全球三大衛星導航系統(美國的GPS、俄羅斯的Glonass和中國的北斗)的智能手機。這奠定了導航系統在智能手機上競爭基調：各憑本事，誰強用誰。 但GPS在衛星導航領域具有何種統治力相信已經無需多做贅述。明明是多系統兼容共用的衛星導航，一句耳熟能詳的“手機GPS信號弱”卻在過去幾十年間幾乎完全掩蓋了其他衛星導航系統的作用。 敢於直面問題，是解決問題的第一步。操作系統、芯片等行業無數的案例都證明了，核心技術是一切高精尖科技市場競爭的","text":"2月18日上午10點，高德地圖與千尋位置戰略合作協議簽約現場，出現了一位重量級嘉賓，他就是北斗衛星導航系統工程總設計師、中國工程院院士楊長風。作爲中國最頂尖的航天系統總體技術與工程管理學家，他的出席無疑爲高德和千尋位置此次的合作增添了關鍵性的加持。 高德和千尋位置宣佈，將共同發起“北斗出行應用創新計劃”，助力北斗這一全球高精尖系統在交通出行場景的廣泛落地。 楊長風在講話中指出，“北斗應用已從解決‘有無’，邁入解決‘更高精度、更加可信、更優服務’的新階段。‘北斗出行應用創新計劃’，是北斗高精度應用面向大衆、面向服務的創新舉措，對北斗產業發展具有重要推動作用，將給衛星導航事業帶來深遠影響。” 簽約儀式現場，高德地圖總裁劉振飛向媒體宣佈，截至2023年1月的最新數據，高德地圖調用北斗衛星日定位量已超過3000億次，創下歷史新高。 3000億背後的故事 日定位量3000億是一個非常龐大的數字，這個數字在去年下半年還是2100億。短短數月，高德地圖調用北斗衛星日定位量就激增了900億次。我們在歡呼北斗系統實現對於國內導航應用定位的全面主導時，也不禁唏噓從0到2100億這20餘年“從無到有”的艱辛歲月。 首先是同場競技的機會。2014年1月，三星電子宣佈GALAXY Note 3國行版的兩個型號(N9006和N9008V)正式支持北斗衛星導航系統，這也是首款支持全球三大衛星導航系統(美國的GPS、俄羅斯的Glonass和中國的北斗)的智能手機。這奠定了導航系統在智能手機上競爭基調：各憑本事，誰強用誰。 但GPS在衛星導航領域具有何種統治力相信已經無需多做贅述。明明是多系統兼容共用的衛星導航，一句耳熟能詳的“手機GPS信號弱”卻在過去幾十年間幾乎完全掩蓋了其他衛星導航系統的作用。 敢於直面問題，是解決問題的第一步。操作系統、芯片等行業無數的案例都證明了，核心技術是一切高精尖科技市場競爭的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd54678b8bf94446aaafe1386cad1022"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6332045476e54cc4a33f2201076b392d"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e603f78f2f4c48e790da566e435add15"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/625776749","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955851869,"gmtCreate":1675349753252,"gmtModify":1676538995600,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955851869","repostId":"622831829","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":622831829,"gmtCreate":1675349260825,"gmtModify":1676538995516,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"新能源汽車股普漲，法拉第未來大漲超14%","htmlText":"週四，美股新能源車板塊上揚，法拉第未來大漲超14%，Rivian漲超5%，特斯拉、理想汽車漲超4%，小鵬汽車、蔚來漲約1%。","listText":"週四，美股新能源車板塊上揚，法拉第未來大漲超14%，Rivian漲超5%，特斯拉、理想汽車漲超4%，小鵬汽車、蔚來漲約1%。","text":"週四，美股新能源車板塊上揚，法拉第未來大漲超14%，Rivian漲超5%，特斯拉、理想汽車漲超4%，小鵬汽車、蔚來漲約1%。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da935e850945593bf634b55ea13cda98","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/622831829","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958310807,"gmtCreate":1673627485811,"gmtModify":1676538867827,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958310807","repostId":"1129413065","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129413065","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673621288,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129413065?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-13 22:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Have made a move! Wenjie cuts prices to face Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129413065","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一场恶战开始。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chai Xuchen</p><p>When the butcher's knife of Tesla's price reduction fell, the popular fried chicken in the electric vehicle industry quickly took action.</p><p>On January 13, Wenjie officially announced a price reduction. The overall price reduction range was 28,800 to 30,000 yuan. After the price reduction, the M5 EV and M7 started from 259,800 yuan and 289,800 yuan respectively. And for the old users who buy the car before this, Wenjie will also provide them with equity compensation worth 33,000 to 35,000.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this price reduction is not blindly followed by Wenjie, but a model with less sales volume is selected.</p><p>According to the 2022 full-year data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales volume of the M5 extended-range version that has not been reduced this time is nearly 49,000 units, accounting for the majority of the annual sales of 75,000 units; The price-reduced M5 EV is less than 10,000 units, and the M7 is only 21,000 units.</p><p>After the price reduction is completed, the competitiveness of these two models of Wenjie may be further improved. Among them, the M5 EV has stood in the same price range as the Tesla Model Y, and the price of the M7 has also dropped to 300,000 circles.</p><p>Wenjie is the first electric vehicle brand to follow up after Tesla cut prices at the beginning of this year. When Tesla cut prices in October last year, it also followed suit, giving away 8,000 yuan of insurance in terminal stores in a disguised price reduction promotion, but it didn't attract much attention at that time.</p><p>Behind following up on Tesla's price cuts is Wenjie's sales anxiety.</p><p>In the past year, \"Yu Dazui\", who led Wenjie to shout out that \"Tesla will be overthrown within one year\", has been eager to achieve a breakthrough in sales. After becoming a dark horse in the industry, Wenjie continued to create sales myths with an overwhelming attitude.</p><p>On January 13, Yu Chengdong, Managing Director of Huawei, CEO of Terminal BG, and CEO of Smart Car Solution BU, said that Wenjie delivered more than 75,000 vehicles last year and is the fastest growing new energy vehicle brand.</p><p>But even so, there is still a big gap from the annual target of \"100,000-200,000 vehicles\" proposed by Yu Chengdong, let alone surpassing Tesla.</p><p>Behind the eagerness for quantity may be Huawei's urgent profit needs.</p><p>In December last year, at Huawei's internal meeting, Yu Chengdong stated that \"the car BU will achieve profitability in 2025.\" He had previously admitted that automobiles are Huawei's only loss-making department, and it has to invest more than one billion dollars in research and development expenses every year.</p><p>Therefore, Wenjie, who is currently shouldering the goal of Huawei's automobile scale, chooses to exchange price for volume when facing the \"cold air\" blowing by Tesla to grab share with the big brother.</p><p>However, compared with Tesla's gross profit margin of nearly 30%, this price cut has put a lot of pressure on Cyrus, the \"foundry\" of Wenjie, which is still suffering a large loss.</p><p>The financial report shows that after cooperating with Huawei, although Cyrus has tasted the sweetness of rising sales and rising revenue, losses are still the main tone, and the magnitude is getting larger and larger.</p><p>In the third quarter of last year, Cyrus had a net loss of 947 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.3%; The net loss in the first three quarters was 2.675 billion yuan, an increase of 147% from 1.083 billion yuan in the same period last year. Moreover, this is the fifth consecutive quarter that Cyrus has suffered losses.</p><p>In this regard, on January 13, the investment department of Cyrus told Wall Street that this is a choice of balance between volume and price, and hopes that after the market share increases, the profit issue will be considered from the perspective of volume. As for whether the price will be raised again after the sales volume rebounds, Cyrus said that it depends on the overall market performance.</p><p>It can be seen that Wenjie took great pains to reduce this price. Not only Wenjie, but under Tesla's butcher's knife, there are definitely not a few brands and models affected.</p><p>Huatai Securities said that since Tesla's price cut, the customer base of users in this price segment, including XPeng P7, G9, Nio ES6, ET5, Ideal L7, L8, BYD Seal, etc., has been shaken, especially for younger models.</p><p>If they also choose to follow Tesla in price cuts, the new energy vehicle market in 2023 will surely be a bloody storm.</p><p>Asking the world is just the beginning.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Have made a move! Wenjie cuts prices to face Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHave made a move! Wenjie cuts prices to face Tesla\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-13 22:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chai Xuchen</p><p>When the butcher's knife of Tesla's price reduction fell, the popular fried chicken in the electric vehicle industry quickly took action.</p><p>On January 13, Wenjie officially announced a price reduction. The overall price reduction range was 28,800 to 30,000 yuan. After the price reduction, the M5 EV and M7 started from 259,800 yuan and 289,800 yuan respectively. And for the old users who buy the car before this, Wenjie will also provide them with equity compensation worth 33,000 to 35,000.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that this price reduction is not blindly followed by Wenjie, but a model with less sales volume is selected.</p><p>According to the 2022 full-year data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales volume of the M5 extended-range version that has not been reduced this time is nearly 49,000 units, accounting for the majority of the annual sales of 75,000 units; The price-reduced M5 EV is less than 10,000 units, and the M7 is only 21,000 units.</p><p>After the price reduction is completed, the competitiveness of these two models of Wenjie may be further improved. Among them, the M5 EV has stood in the same price range as the Tesla Model Y, and the price of the M7 has also dropped to 300,000 circles.</p><p>Wenjie is the first electric vehicle brand to follow up after Tesla cut prices at the beginning of this year. When Tesla cut prices in October last year, it also followed suit, giving away 8,000 yuan of insurance in terminal stores in a disguised price reduction promotion, but it didn't attract much attention at that time.</p><p>Behind following up on Tesla's price cuts is Wenjie's sales anxiety.</p><p>In the past year, \"Yu Dazui\", who led Wenjie to shout out that \"Tesla will be overthrown within one year\", has been eager to achieve a breakthrough in sales. After becoming a dark horse in the industry, Wenjie continued to create sales myths with an overwhelming attitude.</p><p>On January 13, Yu Chengdong, Managing Director of Huawei, CEO of Terminal BG, and CEO of Smart Car Solution BU, said that Wenjie delivered more than 75,000 vehicles last year and is the fastest growing new energy vehicle brand.</p><p>But even so, there is still a big gap from the annual target of \"100,000-200,000 vehicles\" proposed by Yu Chengdong, let alone surpassing Tesla.</p><p>Behind the eagerness for quantity may be Huawei's urgent profit needs.</p><p>In December last year, at Huawei's internal meeting, Yu Chengdong stated that \"the car BU will achieve profitability in 2025.\" He had previously admitted that automobiles are Huawei's only loss-making department, and it has to invest more than one billion dollars in research and development expenses every year.</p><p>Therefore, Wenjie, who is currently shouldering the goal of Huawei's automobile scale, chooses to exchange price for volume when facing the \"cold air\" blowing by Tesla to grab share with the big brother.</p><p>However, compared with Tesla's gross profit margin of nearly 30%, this price cut has put a lot of pressure on Cyrus, the \"foundry\" of Wenjie, which is still suffering a large loss.</p><p>The financial report shows that after cooperating with Huawei, although Cyrus has tasted the sweetness of rising sales and rising revenue, losses are still the main tone, and the magnitude is getting larger and larger.</p><p>In the third quarter of last year, Cyrus had a net loss of 947 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.3%; The net loss in the first three quarters was 2.675 billion yuan, an increase of 147% from 1.083 billion yuan in the same period last year. Moreover, this is the fifth consecutive quarter that Cyrus has suffered losses.</p><p>In this regard, on January 13, the investment department of Cyrus told Wall Street that this is a choice of balance between volume and price, and hopes that after the market share increases, the profit issue will be considered from the perspective of volume. As for whether the price will be raised again after the sales volume rebounds, Cyrus said that it depends on the overall market performance.</p><p>It can be seen that Wenjie took great pains to reduce this price. Not only Wenjie, but under Tesla's butcher's knife, there are definitely not a few brands and models affected.</p><p>Huatai Securities said that since Tesla's price cut, the customer base of users in this price segment, including XPeng P7, G9, Nio ES6, ET5, Ideal L7, L8, BYD Seal, etc., has been shaken, especially for younger models.</p><p>If they also choose to follow Tesla in price cuts, the new energy vehicle market in 2023 will surely be a bloody storm.</p><p>Asking the world is just the beginning.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679840\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61180b344e1491fe1b62c015804cdc37","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679840","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1129413065","content_text":"作者：柴旭晨当特斯拉降价的屠刀落下后，电动车界的当红炸子鸡问界，也迅速出手迎战了。1月13日，问界官宣降价，整体降价幅度为 2.88万～3 万元，M5 EV和M7降价后分别为25.98万元起、28.98万元起。并且针对在此之前提车的老用户，问界也将为其提供价值 3.3万～3.5 万的权益补偿。值得一提的是，此次降价并非问界盲目跟随，而是选择了销量较少的车型为之。乘联会2022全年数据显示，此次未降价的M5增程版销量近4.9万辆，占全年 7.5 万台销量的大头；而降价的 M5 EV不足1万辆，M7则仅为2.1万辆。在完成此次降价之后，问界这两款车型竞争力或许将进一步提升，其中 M5 EV 已与特斯拉 Model Y 站在了同一价格区间， M7 的价格也下探到了 30 万圈层。问界是在今年初特斯拉降价后，首个跟进的电动车品牌。在去年 10 月特斯拉降价的节点它也曾跟随，在终端门店赠送八千元保险变相降价促销，不过当时没有太引起注意。跟进特斯拉降价背后，是问界的销量焦虑。过去一年以来，带领问界喊出“要在一年内干翻特斯拉” 的“余大嘴”，一直渴望实现销量的突破。在成为行业黑马后，问界持续以势如破竹的姿态不断创造销量神话。1 月 13 日，华为常务董事、终端 BG CEO、智能汽车解决方案 BU CEO余承东表示，问界去年交付超过 7.5 万辆，是成长最快的新能源汽车品牌。可即便如此，距离余承东提出的 “10 万 - 20 万辆” 年度目标还有不小的差距，更不用提超越特斯拉了。急于求量的背后，或许是华为迫切的盈利需求。去年 12 月，在华为内部会议上，余承东表示“车 BU 要在 2025 年实现盈利”。此前他曾坦言，汽车是华为唯一亏损的部门，每年要投入十几亿美元的研发费用。因此，当前肩负着华为汽车规模化目标的问界，在面对特斯拉吹来的“寒气”时，选择以价换量，跟老大哥抢起份额来。只不过，对比特斯拉近三成的毛利率，此番跟随降价，让仍大幅亏损的问界“代工厂”赛力斯压力不小。财报显示，与华为合作后，赛力斯虽然尝到了销量上升、营收攀高的甜头，但亏损依然是主基调，并且幅度越来越大。去年三季度，赛力斯净亏损 9.47 亿元，同比扩大 57.3%；前三季度净亏 26.75 亿元，较去年同期的 10.83 亿元扩大了 147%。而且，这已经是赛力斯连续五个季度出现亏损。对此，1月13日，赛力斯投资部门向华尔街见闻表示，这是量价平衡的选择，希望市场占有率起来之后再从量的角度考虑利润问题。而对于是否会在销量回升后重新提价，赛力斯方面称，这还要看整体市场表现再定。看得出，问界为了这次降价煞费苦心。不仅是问界，在特斯拉的屠刀下，受影响的品牌和车型绝不在少数。华泰证券表示，特斯拉降价以来，包括小鹏 P7、G9、蔚来 ES6、ET5、理想 L7、L8，比亚迪海豹等这一价格段的用户客群都有产生动摇，尤其是定位年轻化的车款。若它们也选择跟随特斯拉降价，那2023年的新能源汽车市场，必将是一场腥风血雨。问界，只是一个开始。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958310153,"gmtCreate":1673627474176,"gmtModify":1676538867821,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958310153","repostId":"1126691138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126691138","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673622649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126691138?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-13 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. inflation expectations fell to 4% in January, the fourth consecutive month of decline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126691138","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"指标的不确定性仍然很高。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The University of Michigan's initial one-year inflation forecast fell to 4% in January, a new low since April 2021.</b></p><p><b>The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January in the United States was 64.6, expected to be 60.5, and the previous value was 59.7.</b></p><p>Agency comments on the U.S. one-year inflation rate forecast in January: The data recorded the fourth consecutive month of decline, from 4.4% in December last year to 4.0% in January, but it is still much higher than the 2.3% in the two years before the outbreak.%-3.0%. Long-term inflation expectations have not changed much from 3.0% in December and remain at a high level. However, regardless of long-term or short-term expectations, uncertainty in these two indicators remains high, as changes in global factors in the coming months may reverse recent improvements in inflation indicators.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. inflation expectations fell to 4% in January, the fourth consecutive month of decline</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. inflation expectations fell to 4% in January, the fourth consecutive month of decline\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-13 23:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The University of Michigan's initial one-year inflation forecast fell to 4% in January, a new low since April 2021.</b></p><p><b>The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January in the United States was 64.6, expected to be 60.5, and the previous value was 59.7.</b></p><p>Agency comments on the U.S. one-year inflation rate forecast in January: The data recorded the fourth consecutive month of decline, from 4.4% in December last year to 4.0% in January, but it is still much higher than the 2.3% in the two years before the outbreak.%-3.0%. Long-term inflation expectations have not changed much from 3.0% in December and remain at a high level. However, regardless of long-term or short-term expectations, uncertainty in these two indicators remains high, as changes in global factors in the coming months may reverse recent improvements in inflation indicators.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e32e338b126017956e22ca28f0d2c93b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126691138","content_text":"美国1月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值降至4%，创2021年4月份以来新低。美国1月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 64.6，预期60.5，前值59.7。机构评美国1月一年期通胀率预期：该数据录得连续第四个月下降，从去年12月的4.4%降至1月的4.0%，但仍远高于疫情发生前两年的2.3%—3.0%。长期通胀预期与去年12月的3.0%相比变化不大，仍处于较高水平。不过不管是长期还是短期预期，这两项指标的不确定性仍然很高，因为未来几个月全球因素的变化可能会逆转近期通胀指标的改善。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958310307,"gmtCreate":1673627457812,"gmtModify":1676538867820,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958310307","repostId":"1126691138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126691138","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1673622649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126691138?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-13 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. inflation expectations fell to 4% in January, the fourth consecutive month of decline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126691138","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"指标的不确定性仍然很高。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The University of Michigan's initial one-year inflation forecast fell to 4% in January, a new low since April 2021.</b></p><p><b>The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January in the United States was 64.6, expected to be 60.5, and the previous value was 59.7.</b></p><p>Agency comments on the U.S. one-year inflation rate forecast in January: The data recorded the fourth consecutive month of decline, from 4.4% in December last year to 4.0% in January, but it is still much higher than the 2.3% in the two years before the outbreak.%-3.0%. Long-term inflation expectations have not changed much from 3.0% in December and remain at a high level. However, regardless of long-term or short-term expectations, uncertainty in these two indicators remains high, as changes in global factors in the coming months may reverse recent improvements in inflation indicators.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. inflation expectations fell to 4% in January, the fourth consecutive month of decline</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. inflation expectations fell to 4% in January, the fourth consecutive month of decline\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-13 23:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The University of Michigan's initial one-year inflation forecast fell to 4% in January, a new low since April 2021.</b></p><p><b>The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January in the United States was 64.6, expected to be 60.5, and the previous value was 59.7.</b></p><p>Agency comments on the U.S. one-year inflation rate forecast in January: The data recorded the fourth consecutive month of decline, from 4.4% in December last year to 4.0% in January, but it is still much higher than the 2.3% in the two years before the outbreak.%-3.0%. Long-term inflation expectations have not changed much from 3.0% in December and remain at a high level. However, regardless of long-term or short-term expectations, uncertainty in these two indicators remains high, as changes in global factors in the coming months may reverse recent improvements in inflation indicators.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e32e338b126017956e22ca28f0d2c93b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126691138","content_text":"美国1月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值降至4%，创2021年4月份以来新低。美国1月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 64.6，预期60.5，前值59.7。机构评美国1月一年期通胀率预期：该数据录得连续第四个月下降，从去年12月的4.4%降至1月的4.0%，但仍远高于疫情发生前两年的2.3%—3.0%。长期通胀预期与去年12月的3.0%相比变化不大，仍处于较高水平。不过不管是长期还是短期预期，这两项指标的不确定性仍然很高，因为未来几个月全球因素的变化可能会逆转近期通胀指标的改善。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926897801,"gmtCreate":1671503482904,"gmtModify":1676538547123,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926897801","repostId":"623502390","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":623502390,"gmtCreate":1671502072112,"gmtModify":1676538547080,"author":{"id":"3488157435400312","authorId":"3488157435400312","name":"GPLP犀牛财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14abc57b2bc335b01ce8f7df19813f91","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3488157435400312","idStr":"3488157435400312"},"themes":[],"title":"犀牛早訊：12月份以來超百隻信用債取消發行","htmlText":"齊魯轉債上市首日“破發” 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股權穿透顯示，龍華汽車有限公司持有深圳中升雷克薩斯汽車100%股權。據中升控股2021年年報顯示，深圳中升雷克薩斯爲中升控股附屬公司。龍華汽車旗下共擁有七家持股100%的公司，一家已經註銷，其中四家均是與雷克薩斯、豐田銷售服務有關。 而在不久前，同樣是深圳雷克薩斯銷售點，深圳潮鋒雷克薩斯汽車銷售服務有限公司也因發佈違法廣告，被深圳市市場監管局罰款20萬元。 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LITE輕享版車型，10月又推出暢玩版車型，從當前曝光的雲度K3車型，應該就是當時所說2023年的全新產品。網傳均瑤入主雲度的消息是真的？這款車會是均瑤入主雲度後推出的首款車型？這些消息還有待覈實。從曝光的圖片和車型庫信息來看，這款車的定位可能是小型SUV，全車設計造型形似“兔”，那麼神祕新車上會不會出現與兔子相似的元素呢？我猜可能性比較大。從有限的圖片信息可以看到這款車外觀姿態看起來非常躍動，壓低的車頭跟飽滿的後尾部，營造出一種蓄勢待發的感覺。4個輪轂造型非常個性，尾部擾流板像兩隻兔耳一樣向後舒展，身姿飄逸，能極大的提升了空氣動力學性能。前車大燈的造型犀利，貫穿式尾燈設計也非常符合當下的設計潮流。配合動感的車身線條，全車的立體感很強且充滿活力。從透露出的細節圖來看，這款車的前格柵和後包圍區域設計層次感豐富，而且也具有很高的辨識度。小編對這款車還是十分期待的，不過現關於該新車的消息還十分有限，雲度能否通過這款車實現銷量逆襲？讓我們拭目以待！實車出現後我們會將爲您持續報道。來源：松果財經","listText":"松果財經獲悉，12月16日，據相關媒體爆料，有網友向其投稿了一張車身線條圖，看外形像是一款新能源SUV，圖片中有標註信息“產品代號K3”，通過車型庫的信息查詢，疑似是雲度即將對外發布的新車—雲度K3。此前一直有消息說均瑤集團注資雲度，將在2023年推出全新產品。雲度汽車在7月正式復產復工，當月推出π1 LITE輕享版車型，10月又推出暢玩版車型，從當前曝光的雲度K3車型，應該就是當時所說2023年的全新產品。網傳均瑤入主雲度的消息是真的？這款車會是均瑤入主雲度後推出的首款車型？這些消息還有待覈實。從曝光的圖片和車型庫信息來看，這款車的定位可能是小型SUV，全車設計造型形似“兔”，那麼神祕新車上會不會出現與兔子相似的元素呢？我猜可能性比較大。從有限的圖片信息可以看到這款車外觀姿態看起來非常躍動，壓低的車頭跟飽滿的後尾部，營造出一種蓄勢待發的感覺。4個輪轂造型非常個性，尾部擾流板像兩隻兔耳一樣向後舒展，身姿飄逸，能極大的提升了空氣動力學性能。前車大燈的造型犀利，貫穿式尾燈設計也非常符合當下的設計潮流。配合動感的車身線條，全車的立體感很強且充滿活力。從透露出的細節圖來看，這款車的前格柵和後包圍區域設計層次感豐富，而且也具有很高的辨識度。小編對這款車還是十分期待的，不過現關於該新車的消息還十分有限，雲度能否通過這款車實現銷量逆襲？讓我們拭目以待！實車出現後我們會將爲您持續報道。來源：松果財經","text":"松果財經獲悉，12月16日，據相關媒體爆料，有網友向其投稿了一張車身線條圖，看外形像是一款新能源SUV，圖片中有標註信息“產品代號K3”，通過車型庫的信息查詢，疑似是雲度即將對外發布的新車—雲度K3。此前一直有消息說均瑤集團注資雲度，將在2023年推出全新產品。雲度汽車在7月正式復產復工，當月推出π1 LITE輕享版車型，10月又推出暢玩版車型，從當前曝光的雲度K3車型，應該就是當時所說2023年的全新產品。網傳均瑤入主雲度的消息是真的？這款車會是均瑤入主雲度後推出的首款車型？這些消息還有待覈實。從曝光的圖片和車型庫信息來看，這款車的定位可能是小型SUV，全車設計造型形似“兔”，那麼神祕新車上會不會出現與兔子相似的元素呢？我猜可能性比較大。從有限的圖片信息可以看到這款車外觀姿態看起來非常躍動，壓低的車頭跟飽滿的後尾部，營造出一種蓄勢待發的感覺。4個輪轂造型非常個性，尾部擾流板像兩隻兔耳一樣向後舒展，身姿飄逸，能極大的提升了空氣動力學性能。前車大燈的造型犀利，貫穿式尾燈設計也非常符合當下的設計潮流。配合動感的車身線條，全車的立體感很強且充滿活力。從透露出的細節圖來看，這款車的前格柵和後包圍區域設計層次感豐富，而且也具有很高的辨識度。小編對這款車還是十分期待的，不過現關於該新車的消息還十分有限，雲度能否通過這款車實現銷量逆襲？讓我們拭目以待！實車出現後我們會將爲您持續報道。來源：松果財經","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36981e02188c37df56398da42e6cb69a"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88df050fbbef49d6b2120c4cb5b7502e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bdebb8017b1cbf930d4c61fca3caf9b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/623861428","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921555332,"gmtCreate":1671097920526,"gmtModify":1676538489778,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921555332","repostId":"1194912626","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194912626","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1671097246,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194912626?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-15 17:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tencent Holdings: repurchased 1.1 million shares on December 15 at a cost of approximately HK $350 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194912626","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"回购价格为316.2-326.2港元，共耗资约3.5亿港元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>: On December 15, 2022, 1.1 million shares were repurchased at a repurchase price of HK $316.2-326.2, with a total cost of approximately HK $350 million.</p><p>Tencent Holdings: The Company will hold a board meeting on March 22, 2023 (Wednesday), at which the board of directors will pass resolutions, including approval of the annual results and announcements of the Company and its subsidiaries for the year ending December 31, 2022, and consider the distribution of final Dividend (if any).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/560c2e4478a9858629726b63ed55e813\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Holdings: repurchased 1.1 million shares on December 15 at a cost of approximately HK $350 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Holdings: repurchased 1.1 million shares on December 15 at a cost of approximately HK $350 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-15 17:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>: On December 15, 2022, 1.1 million shares were repurchased at a repurchase price of HK $316.2-326.2, with a total cost of approximately HK $350 million.</p><p>Tencent Holdings: The Company will hold a board meeting on March 22, 2023 (Wednesday), at which the board of directors will pass resolutions, including approval of the annual results and announcements of the Company and its subsidiaries for the year ending December 31, 2022, and consider the distribution of final Dividend (if any).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/560c2e4478a9858629726b63ed55e813\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194912626","content_text":"腾讯控股：于2022年12月15日回购110万股，回购价格为316.2-326.2港元，共耗资约3.5亿港元。腾讯控股：本公司将于2023年3月22日（星期三）举行董事会会议，董事会将于会上通过议案，其中包括批准本公司及其附属公司截至2022年12月31日止年度的全年业绩及公告，以及考虑派发末期股息（如有者）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984139740,"gmtCreate":1667558784180,"gmtModify":1676537937519,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984139740","repostId":"1184753169","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184753169","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667558244,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184753169?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 18:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Great Wall Motors: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184753169","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"长城汽车：10月汽车销量100,208台，同比下降10.58%。10月新能源车销售10,954台，1-10月累计销售107,870台。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%. 10,954 new energy vehicles were sold in October, and the cumulative sales from January to October were 107,870 units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8360bda5b577fba878e12fdbe5279212\" tg-width=\"1704\" tg-height=\"1194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Great Wall Motors: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGreat Wall Motors: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-04 18:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%. 10,954 new energy vehicles were sold in October, and the cumulative sales from January to October were 107,870 units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8360bda5b577fba878e12fdbe5279212\" tg-width=\"1704\" tg-height=\"1194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b372737679d5d673d181aeea27a71ab3","relate_stocks":{"601633":"长城汽车","02333":"长城汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184753169","content_text":"长城汽车：10月汽车销量100,208台，同比下降10.58%。10月新能源车销售10,954台，1-10月累计销售107,870台。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601633":0.9,"02333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985626981,"gmtCreate":1667380229043,"gmtModify":1676537908382,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985626981","repostId":"2280377740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2280377740","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667379312,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2280377740?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-02 16:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The battle between new car-making forces is over, and traditional car companies have begun to clean up the battlefield?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2280377740","media":"见智研究","summary":"新势力故事讲完了？10月造车新势力销量环比集体下跌根据最新的造车新势力的销量数据来看，在本该处于车市金九银十高景气度下的10月，造车新势力的销量却几乎集体“失速”，其中无论是御三家蔚小理，还是二线新势","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The story of the new power is finished? In October, the sales of new car-making forces collectively fell month-on-month. According to the latest sales data of new car-making forces, in October, which was supposed to be in the high prosperity of the auto market, the sales of new car-making forces almost collectively \"stalled\". Among them, both Yusanjia Wei Xiaoli and the second-tier new force Zero Run experienced varying degrees of month-on-month decline in sales. Among them, XPeng fell by 30% and 50% respectively.</p><p>In fact, in the domestic new energy vehicle field, new car-making forces have always occupied a place and maintained steady growth. In addition to taking the lead in decisively transforming into new energy vehicles<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>In addition, most traditional car companies have not been able to gain an advantage in the previous three years. This so-called advantage is not only reflected in the sales level of new energy vehicle products, but also in the number and market recognition of new energy hot models..</p><p>The reasons behind this lie in two points. On the one hand, it is indeed difficult for traditional car companies to turn around. The existing fuel vehicles of major traditional car companies are too large, and the market advantages are difficult to give up; On the other hand, compared with new car-making forces, traditional car companies are indeed slightly inferior in terms of the price and model entry angle of the electrification and intelligence-oriented new energy vehicle market and the overall focus of the market., resulting in the failure to gain a first-mover advantage, but this trend seems to be gradually being corrected.</p><p>1. The story of the new forces is finished?</p><p>In October this year, Yusanjia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, Ideal and XPeng's sales reached 10,059, 10,052 and 5,101 respectively, down 7.5%, 12.8% and 39.8% month-on-month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate also dropped from the previous three digits to about 30%. For the first time, there was a year-on-year decline of only 50%, and the strength of second-tier car manufacturing was unavoidable this time. Leapao's sales volume in October was 7,026 vehicles, a month-on-month decline of 36.7%, second only to XPeng.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the sales level of some new forces remains stable, which is particularly conspicuous among the new forces that have declined month-on-month. Among them, the sales volume of Jikrypton reached 10,119, a month-on-month increase of 22.2%, and the year-on-year increase was due to last year. The listing base is too low and has no reference value; Wenjie also reached 12,018 vehicles, an increase of 12,018 vehicles from the previous month; Although Aian remained flat month-on-month at 30,063 vehicles, it remained stable at triple-digit 149% year-on-year.</p><p>In other words, when the sales of pure new car-making forces are sluggish and the story is difficult to continue, the new energy vehicle brands affiliated to traditional car companies seem to have the intention of making great efforts.</p><p>2. Traditional car companies have begun to clean up the battlefield?</p><p>At present, among the entire new car-making forces, in addition to pure new forces, they include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>, ideal. In addition to XPeng, Nezha and Leapmotor, there are also new forces or affiliated brands that are backed by traditional car companies and separated from them, such as Jikrypton (Geely) and Wenjie (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Cyrus</a>), Aian (GAC), Lantu (Dongfeng), Feifan & Zhiji (SAIC), Jihu (BAIC) and Deep Blue & Avita (Changan), etc. Of course, although these brands are empowered by traditional car companies, not all of them are developing smoothly. Among them, there are brands that are emerging and have steadily increased sales, as well as brands that continue to be under pressure and are still developing in a low-key manner.</p><p>(1) Aian</p><p>First of all, Aian, which was born out of GAC, is undoubtedly a brighter member of the new energy brands of traditional car companies. As early as this year, Aian had already demonstrated strong competitiveness in terms of sales. After Aian announced its independent operation in 2020, the sales volume reached 60,000 vehicles, and will further double to 124,000 vehicles in 2021.</p><p>This year, Aian's sales are out of control. They have grown from about 10,000 vehicles at the beginning of the year to about 30,000 vehicles in October, and have remained stable. It can be seen that Aian is launching new models such as the 2022 AION S After PLUS models, the focus shifted from the previous online ride-hailing to C-end consumers, which has brought quite good sales performance, and this sales advantage continues to be maintained steadily, just like BYD's monthly sales growth trend last year.</p><p>(2) Extreme krypton</p><p>Secondly, Jikrypton, backed by the former domestic independent brand Geely, began to show its edge in the second half of this year. The first new energy model 001, which was also a new energy model, was launched in the fourth quarter of last year, but it did not start to sell quickly until the second half of this year. Sales only increased significantly, from about 4,300 vehicles in June to exceeding 10,000 vehicles in October to 10,119 vehicles in October (the time period from the launch of the model to exceeding 10,000 vehicles was only one year).</p><p>However, unlike Ideal, which started to launch new models through the Ideal one single model for more than 2 years, Jikrypton's second model, Jikrypton 009, has begun to build momentum. Once it is launched, it is expected to continue to take over the popularity of Jikrypton 001 and continue to expand sales.</p><p>(3) Asking the boundary</p><p>Then, the world empowered by Cyrus (Xiaokang Co., Ltd.) and Huawei is also prosperous. On the one hand, Cyrus' own fuel vehicles (Dongfeng Xiaokang and Rich brands) are really not strong, and they are willing to shift their focus to new energy vehicles. On the other hand, as the first model of cooperation between Cyrus and the giant Huawei, the M5 model and the ideal explosive model Ideal one are both extended-range vehicles, which have effectively captured the needs of consumers and been recognized by the market.</p><p>The M5 achieved a good result of monthly sales of 3,000 to over 10,000 in just 6 months. In October, it continued to rise steadily to 12,018 units, exceeding 10,000 units for three consecutive months. It can be said that in this segment The new energy vehicle market has achieved excellent sales performance, and this may just be the beginning. With the delivery of Cyrus' second model M7 and the subsequent M5 EV, Wenjie's sales are expected to further increase.</p><p>(4) Players who are temporarily behind</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the new energy vehicle brands of traditional car companies include the above-mentioned brands with rapid growth and occupying a place in the market, and of course there are also brands with low-key development and sluggish sales. At present, Lantu (Dongfeng) and Brands such as Feifan & Zhiji (SAIC) and Jihu (BAIC) are indeed temporarily lagging behind.</p><p>Among them, take Dongfeng's Lantu as an example. Due to the lack of brand awareness and the failure of the product models themselves to hang any corresponding labels to capture consumers, Lantu has launched two models so far, including Lantu FREE and Dreamer, but the overall sales volume is still weak, stable at around 1,000-2,500 vehicles. In the first ten months of this year, the sales volume was only about 16,000 vehicles, which is far from the previously set sales target of 30,000 vehicles.</p><p>Taking SAIC as an example, SAIC still maintains its position as a big brother in the fuel vehicle market. There is also a phenomenal product Wuling Hongguang mini EV in the new energy vehicle market. However, this national sacred car alone obviously cannot support SAIC's scale. The new energy ambitions of car companies. But if you turn your attention to other SAIC brands such as Feifan Automobile and Zhiji, you will find that there is no growth trend like Wuling Hongguang mini EV.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1574316446112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The battle between new car-making forces is over, and traditional car companies have begun to clean up the battlefield?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe battle between new car-making forces is over, and traditional car companies have begun to clean up the battlefield?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">见智研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-02 16:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The story of the new power is finished? In October, the sales of new car-making forces collectively fell month-on-month. According to the latest sales data of new car-making forces, in October, which was supposed to be in the high prosperity of the auto market, the sales of new car-making forces almost collectively \"stalled\". Among them, both Yusanjia Wei Xiaoli and the second-tier new force Zero Run experienced varying degrees of month-on-month decline in sales. Among them, XPeng fell by 30% and 50% respectively.</p><p>In fact, in the domestic new energy vehicle field, new car-making forces have always occupied a place and maintained steady growth. In addition to taking the lead in decisively transforming into new energy vehicles<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>In addition, most traditional car companies have not been able to gain an advantage in the previous three years. This so-called advantage is not only reflected in the sales level of new energy vehicle products, but also in the number and market recognition of new energy hot models..</p><p>The reasons behind this lie in two points. On the one hand, it is indeed difficult for traditional car companies to turn around. The existing fuel vehicles of major traditional car companies are too large, and the market advantages are difficult to give up; On the other hand, compared with new car-making forces, traditional car companies are indeed slightly inferior in terms of the price and model entry angle of the electrification and intelligence-oriented new energy vehicle market and the overall focus of the market., resulting in the failure to gain a first-mover advantage, but this trend seems to be gradually being corrected.</p><p>1. The story of the new forces is finished?</p><p>In October this year, Yusanjia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>, Ideal and XPeng's sales reached 10,059, 10,052 and 5,101 respectively, down 7.5%, 12.8% and 39.8% month-on-month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate also dropped from the previous three digits to about 30%. For the first time, there was a year-on-year decline of only 50%, and the strength of second-tier car manufacturing was unavoidable this time. Leapao's sales volume in October was 7,026 vehicles, a month-on-month decline of 36.7%, second only to XPeng.</p><p>However, it is worth noting that the sales level of some new forces remains stable, which is particularly conspicuous among the new forces that have declined month-on-month. Among them, the sales volume of Jikrypton reached 10,119, a month-on-month increase of 22.2%, and the year-on-year increase was due to last year. The listing base is too low and has no reference value; Wenjie also reached 12,018 vehicles, an increase of 12,018 vehicles from the previous month; Although Aian remained flat month-on-month at 30,063 vehicles, it remained stable at triple-digit 149% year-on-year.</p><p>In other words, when the sales of pure new car-making forces are sluggish and the story is difficult to continue, the new energy vehicle brands affiliated to traditional car companies seem to have the intention of making great efforts.</p><p>2. Traditional car companies have begun to clean up the battlefield?</p><p>At present, among the entire new car-making forces, in addition to pure new forces, they include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">Nio</a>, ideal. In addition to XPeng, Nezha and Leapmotor, there are also new forces or affiliated brands that are backed by traditional car companies and separated from them, such as Jikrypton (Geely) and Wenjie (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Cyrus</a>), Aian (GAC), Lantu (Dongfeng), Feifan & Zhiji (SAIC), Jihu (BAIC) and Deep Blue & Avita (Changan), etc. Of course, although these brands are empowered by traditional car companies, not all of them are developing smoothly. Among them, there are brands that are emerging and have steadily increased sales, as well as brands that continue to be under pressure and are still developing in a low-key manner.</p><p>(1) Aian</p><p>First of all, Aian, which was born out of GAC, is undoubtedly a brighter member of the new energy brands of traditional car companies. As early as this year, Aian had already demonstrated strong competitiveness in terms of sales. After Aian announced its independent operation in 2020, the sales volume reached 60,000 vehicles, and will further double to 124,000 vehicles in 2021.</p><p>This year, Aian's sales are out of control. They have grown from about 10,000 vehicles at the beginning of the year to about 30,000 vehicles in October, and have remained stable. It can be seen that Aian is launching new models such as the 2022 AION S After PLUS models, the focus shifted from the previous online ride-hailing to C-end consumers, which has brought quite good sales performance, and this sales advantage continues to be maintained steadily, just like BYD's monthly sales growth trend last year.</p><p>(2) Extreme krypton</p><p>Secondly, Jikrypton, backed by the former domestic independent brand Geely, began to show its edge in the second half of this year. The first new energy model 001, which was also a new energy model, was launched in the fourth quarter of last year, but it did not start to sell quickly until the second half of this year. Sales only increased significantly, from about 4,300 vehicles in June to exceeding 10,000 vehicles in October to 10,119 vehicles in October (the time period from the launch of the model to exceeding 10,000 vehicles was only one year).</p><p>However, unlike Ideal, which started to launch new models through the Ideal one single model for more than 2 years, Jikrypton's second model, Jikrypton 009, has begun to build momentum. Once it is launched, it is expected to continue to take over the popularity of Jikrypton 001 and continue to expand sales.</p><p>(3) Asking the boundary</p><p>Then, the world empowered by Cyrus (Xiaokang Co., Ltd.) and Huawei is also prosperous. On the one hand, Cyrus' own fuel vehicles (Dongfeng Xiaokang and Rich brands) are really not strong, and they are willing to shift their focus to new energy vehicles. On the other hand, as the first model of cooperation between Cyrus and the giant Huawei, the M5 model and the ideal explosive model Ideal one are both extended-range vehicles, which have effectively captured the needs of consumers and been recognized by the market.</p><p>The M5 achieved a good result of monthly sales of 3,000 to over 10,000 in just 6 months. In October, it continued to rise steadily to 12,018 units, exceeding 10,000 units for three consecutive months. It can be said that in this segment The new energy vehicle market has achieved excellent sales performance, and this may just be the beginning. With the delivery of Cyrus' second model M7 and the subsequent M5 EV, Wenjie's sales are expected to further increase.</p><p>(4) Players who are temporarily behind</p><p>As mentioned earlier, the new energy vehicle brands of traditional car companies include the above-mentioned brands with rapid growth and occupying a place in the market, and of course there are also brands with low-key development and sluggish sales. At present, Lantu (Dongfeng) and Brands such as Feifan & Zhiji (SAIC) and Jihu (BAIC) are indeed temporarily lagging behind.</p><p>Among them, take Dongfeng's Lantu as an example. Due to the lack of brand awareness and the failure of the product models themselves to hang any corresponding labels to capture consumers, Lantu has launched two models so far, including Lantu FREE and Dreamer, but the overall sales volume is still weak, stable at around 1,000-2,500 vehicles. In the first ten months of this year, the sales volume was only about 16,000 vehicles, which is far from the previously set sales target of 30,000 vehicles.</p><p>Taking SAIC as an example, SAIC still maintains its position as a big brother in the fuel vehicle market. There is also a phenomenal product Wuling Hongguang mini EV in the new energy vehicle market. However, this national sacred car alone obviously cannot support SAIC's scale. The new energy ambitions of car companies. But if you turn your attention to other SAIC brands such as Feifan Automobile and Zhiji, you will find that there is no growth trend like Wuling Hongguang mini EV.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673910\">见智研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b6fbfe38edb1202883a645549da7f6","relate_stocks":{"BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1539":"汽车股","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1587":"次新股","02015":"理想汽车-W","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673910","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2280377740","content_text":"新势力故事讲完了？10月造车新势力销量环比集体下跌根据最新的造车新势力的销量数据来看，在本该处于车市金九银十高景气度下的10月，造车新势力的销量却几乎集体“失速”，其中无论是御三家蔚小理，还是二线新势力零跑等都出现不同程度的销量环比下滑，其中小鹏更是同环比分别下滑了30%和50%，造车先后里的故事讲完了？其实此前在国内的新能源汽车领域里，造车新势力一直占有一席之地且保持稳定增长，而除了率先果断转型新能源化的比亚迪以外，大部分传统车企在此前三年期间内一直未能占据优势，这所谓的优势既体现在新能源汽车产品的销量水平上，也表现在新能源爆款车型的数量和市场认可度上。而这背后的原因在于两点，一方面在于传统车企大象转身的确难度较大，各大传统车企已有的燃油车体量过大，市场优势难以割舍；另一方面则在于，相较于造车新势力，传统车企对于电动化和智能化为主的新能源汽车市场的价格和车型的切入角度和市场整体的关注重点的把握方面的确略差一筹，导致未能取得先发优势，但是这个趋势似乎正在逐步得到修正。1、新势力故事讲完了？今年10月份，御三家蔚来、理想和小鹏的销量分别达到10059辆、10052辆和5101辆，环比各自下跌7.5%、12.8%和39.8%，同比增速也从此前的三位数跌落至30%左右，小鹏更是首次出现同比下滑仅50%，二线造车实力这次也未能免难，零跑的10月份销量为7026辆，环比下滑36.7%下滑幅度仅次于小鹏。但值得关注的是，部分新势力的销量水平却依旧保持稳定，这在一众环比下滑的新势力中就显得格外显眼，其中极氪的销量达到10119量，环比增长22.2%，同比则因为去年刚刚上市基数过低没有参考价值；问界也达到12018辆，环比增长12018辆；埃安虽然环比保持持平达到30063辆，但是同比依旧稳定在三位数149%。换而言之，在纯粹的造车新势力销量不振，故事难以继续讲下去的时候，传统车企的下属新能源汽车品牌似乎有大举发力的意思了。2、传统车企开始打扫战场？目前整个造车新势力中，除了纯粹的新势力包括蔚来、理想。小鹏、哪吒和零跑以外，也有背靠传统车企，从中分离出来的新势力或下属品牌如极氪（吉利）、问界（赛力斯）、埃安（广汽）、岚图（东风）、飞凡&智己（上汽）、极狐（北汽）和深蓝&阿维塔（长安）等等。当然，虽然这些品牌皆有传统车企赋能，但是并非都是顺风顺水的发展，其中既有崭露头角，销量稳定上升的品牌，也有持续承压，依然低调发展的品牌。（1）埃安首先，脱胎于广汽的埃安毫无疑问是传统车企新能源品牌中较为闪亮的一员，早在今年以前其实埃安在销量方面就已经展示出了较强的竞争力，其中在2020年埃安宣布独立运营后销量更是达到6万辆，并在之后的2021年进一步翻倍达到12.4万辆。今年埃安的销量更是一发不可收拾，从年初的万辆左右的水平一路增长至10月的3万辆左右的水平，并保持稳定，可见埃安在推出新车型如2022款AION S PLUS车型等后将重心从此前的网约车转移至C端消费者带来了相当不错的销量表现，而且这个销量优势还在持续稳定的保持，一如去年的比亚迪的月销量增长趋势。（2）极氪其次，背靠曾经的国内自主品牌一哥吉利的极氪在今年下半年开始崭露锋芒，首款也是为一款的新能源车型001首发于去年四季度，但并未迅速起量，直到今年下半年开始销量才出现明显增加，一举从6月的4300辆左右到10月突破万辆达到10119辆（从车型上市到破万辆的时间周期仅为1年，远超蔚小理，去年10月极氪销量仅为199辆），实现单车型销量破万，有望复刻此前的理想的辉煌。但是和理想通过理想one单车型单打独斗2年多才开始推新车型不同，极氪的第二款车型极氪009已经开始造势，一旦上线有望继续接棒极氪001的热度继续扩大销量。（3）问界然后，赛力斯（小康股份）和华为赋能的问界也是风光无限，一方面在于赛力斯本身的燃油车（东风小康和瑞驰多个品牌）的确不给力，愿意将重心转移至新能源汽车，另一方面，作为赛力斯和巨头华为合作的首款车型，M5车型与理想的爆款车型理想one同为增程式，的确有效抓住了消费者的需求，得到了市场的认可。M5仅用6个月时间就完成月销3千到月销过万的好成绩，并在10月份继续稳中有升的达到了12018辆，连续三个月破万辆，可以说在这一细分新能源汽车市场取得了极佳的销量表现，而这可能才是刚刚开始，随着赛力斯第二款车型M7以及后续M5 EV的交付，问界的销量还有望进一步得到提升。（4）暂时落后的选手正如前文所提，传统车企的新能源汽车品牌既有上述增长迅猛，在市场中占据了一席之地的品牌，当然也有仍然低调发展，销量不振的品牌，目前来看，岚图（东风）和飞凡&智己（上汽）和极狐（北汽）等品牌的确处于暂时落后的局面。其中，以东风的岚图为例，由于品牌知名度不够且产品车型本身也未能挂上任何相应的标签来抓住消费者，截止目前，岚图已经推出两款车型包括岚图FREE和梦想家，但是整体销量依旧孱弱，稳定在1000-2500辆左右的水平，今年前十个月销量仅为1.6万辆左右，距离此前定下的3万辆销量目标差距巨大。在以上汽为例，上汽在燃油车市场依旧保持着老大哥的地位，新能源汽车市场领域中也有现象级产品五菱宏光mini EV，但是单凭这一款国民神车显然是无法撑起上汽这个规模的车企的新能源野心。但是如果将目光转向上汽的其他品牌如飞凡汽车和智己，会发现并没有出现和五菱宏光mini EV一样的增长趋势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"430047":1,"430090":1,"430198":1,"430418":1,"430489":1,"430510":1,"02015":0.9,"LI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985626069,"gmtCreate":1667380201851,"gmtModify":1676537908377,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985626069","repostId":"1154541387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917680616,"gmtCreate":1665498729936,"gmtModify":1676537617061,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917680616","repostId":"1120196456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120196456","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1665496579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120196456?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 21:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The decline of popular Chinese concept stocks continued to expand, Ctrip fell more than 12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120196456","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月11日，美股跌幅扩大，纳指跌超1%，标普500指数跌近1%，道指跌0.3%；热门中概股跌幅持续扩大，携程网跌超12%，哔哩哔哩、贝壳跌超7%，百度、爱奇艺跌超5%，阿里巴巴、网易、拼多多跌超4%","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On October 11, the decline in U.S. stocks expanded, with the Nasdaq falling more than 1%, the S&P 500 falling nearly 1%, and the Dow falling 0.3%; The decline of popular Chinese concept stocks continued to expand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>Fell more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09972d1407ac7a080f6d37957b189cb4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The decline of popular Chinese concept stocks continued to expand, Ctrip fell more than 12%</title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe decline of popular Chinese concept stocks continued to expand, Ctrip fell more than 12%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-11 21:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On October 11, the decline in U.S. stocks expanded, with the Nasdaq falling more than 1%, the S&P 500 falling nearly 1%, and the Dow falling 0.3%; The decline of popular Chinese concept stocks continued to expand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip.com</a>Fell more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Fell more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09972d1407ac7a080f6d37957b189cb4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BK4531":"中概回港概念","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TCOM":"携程网"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120196456","content_text":"10月11日，美股跌幅扩大，纳指跌超1%，标普500指数跌近1%，道指跌0.3%；热门中概股跌幅持续扩大，携程网跌超12%，哔哩哔哩、贝壳跌超7%，百度、爱奇艺跌超5%，阿里巴巴、网易、拼多多跌超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"TCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914575012,"gmtCreate":1665333929137,"gmtModify":1676537588457,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914575012","repostId":"9914188947","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9914188947,"gmtCreate":1665200598489,"gmtModify":1676537572555,"author":{"id":"3581734227956830","authorId":"3581734227956830","name":"SirBahamut","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bfb00d5085e2ed1685d99f51539c6bb1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581734227956830","idStr":"3581734227956830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Next week QQQ and the tech sectors&nbsp;will not be good as well as we approached Oct 13 for Sept 2022 CPI data released. Labour market remains strong, while housing prices and rent remained sticky and elevated as these takes time to adjust (e.g. you have to fulfil for rent obligation regardless of the interest). Worst of all, oil price reboundedafter OPEC wants to cut oil production. All this points to a hot inflation data in Sep 2022. Oct CPI should moderate purely because Oct 21 is the first time we saw CPI spiked to 6+%. So hold on to dear life! Next week US companies will also kickstart their 3Q reporting. If earnings are as bad aswhat AMD reported, then expect another correction of 10-20","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Next week QQQ and the tech sectors&nbsp;will not be good as well as we approached Oct 13 for Sept 2022 CPI data released. Labour market remains strong, while housing prices and rent remained sticky and elevated as these takes time to adjust (e.g. you have to fulfil for rent obligation regardless of the interest). Worst of all, oil price reboundedafter OPEC wants to cut oil production. All this points to a hot inflation data in Sep 2022. Oct CPI should moderate purely because Oct 21 is the first time we saw CPI spiked to 6+%. So hold on to dear life! Next week US companies will also kickstart their 3Q reporting. If earnings are as bad aswhat AMD reported, then expect another correction of 10-20","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$Next week QQQ and the tech sectors will not be good as well as we approached Oct 13 for Sept 2022 CPI data released. Labour market remains strong, while housing prices and rent remained sticky and elevated as these takes time to adjust (e.g. you have to fulfil for rent obligation regardless of the interest). Worst of all, oil price reboundedafter OPEC wants to cut oil production. All this points to a hot inflation data in Sep 2022. Oct CPI should moderate purely because Oct 21 is the first time we saw CPI spiked to 6+%. So hold on to dear life! Next week US companies will also kickstart their 3Q reporting. If earnings are as bad aswhat AMD reported, then expect another correction of 10-20","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914188947","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911954164,"gmtCreate":1664123269859,"gmtModify":1676537393467,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911954164","repostId":"1127743871","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127743871","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664089688,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127743871?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 15:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla cuts price by 8,000 yuan in disguise? Salespeople: Temporary activities","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127743871","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一份关于特斯拉车型能够享受保险补贴的邮件在网络流传。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, a report about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Emails that vehicle models can enjoy insurance subsidies are circulating on the Internet. According to the email, car owners who completed the pick-up of their cars between September 16 and September 30 can enjoy an insurance subsidy of 8,000 yuan if they choose to purchase insurance in Tesla stores, which can be directly used to reduce the price of the car. This behavior was also interpreted by the market as Tesla's \"disguised price reduction of 8,000 yuan\".</p><p>Tesla store sales staff confirmed the authenticity of the content of the online email, saying that this was a temporary activity to sprint the delivery volume. Anyone who picks up the car on September 30 can enjoy a subsidy of 8,000 yuan, and the car will be reduced or exempted when the final payment is delivered. price.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla cuts price by 8,000 yuan in disguise? Salespeople: Temporary activities</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla cuts price by 8,000 yuan in disguise? Salespeople: Temporary activities\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-25 15:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, a report about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Emails that vehicle models can enjoy insurance subsidies are circulating on the Internet. According to the email, car owners who completed the pick-up of their cars between September 16 and September 30 can enjoy an insurance subsidy of 8,000 yuan if they choose to purchase insurance in Tesla stores, which can be directly used to reduce the price of the car. This behavior was also interpreted by the market as Tesla's \"disguised price reduction of 8,000 yuan\".</p><p>Tesla store sales staff confirmed the authenticity of the content of the online email, saying that this was a temporary activity to sprint the delivery volume. Anyone who picks up the car on September 30 can enjoy a subsidy of 8,000 yuan, and the car will be reduced or exempted when the final payment is delivered. price.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da1808c476bfbe9388a4202f176a117","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127743871","content_text":"近期，一份关于特斯拉车型能够享受保险补贴的邮件在网络流传。邮件显示，在9月16日-9月30日期间完成提车的车主，如选择在特斯拉店内购买保险，可享受8000元保险补贴，补贴可直接用于减免车价。这一行为也被市场解读为特斯拉“变相降价8000元”。特斯拉门店销售人员证实网传邮件内容真实性，称这是临时做的一个活动，是为冲刺交付量，9月30日提车都可以享受8000元补贴，会在交付尾款时减免车价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911954925,"gmtCreate":1664123249667,"gmtModify":1676537393466,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911954925","repostId":"1162800991","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162800991","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664101450,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162800991?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 18:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell made two appearances, how will the Fed guide U.S. stocks next week?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162800991","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"投资者下周重点需要关注的是美联储官员放风和通胀等数据公布。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points as scheduled, pushing Federal Funds rate to 3%-3.25%, the highest level since early 2008. At the same time, it also unexpectedly released a stronger hawkish tendency, suggesting that there will still be many sharp rate hike.</p><p>The market responded with continuous sharp drops. On Friday, the S&P 500 index fell to 3,693 points, down 23% from its January peak. In addition, U.S. bond yields have continued to hit a fifteen-year high since 2 years.</p><p>Some analysts predict that since Powell released a clear signal to tolerate anti-inflation at the expense of recession after the announcement of the Fed's decision, this means that investors will face continued market volatility next. The analysis said:</p><p><b>In the next few weeks, there are two main factors that may affect U.S. stocks-the release of Federal Reserve officials and the release of data such as inflation.</b>Deutsche Bank economist Brett Ryan said Powell is expected to speak next Tuesday and Wednesday, and 12 of the 19 Fed governors will also speak out next week. He said:</p><p><b>The first and second commands of the Federal Reserve and a group of Fed governors will start delivering speeches one after another next week, and almost all statements may involve the economic outlook and monetary policy.</b>Ryan believes that although Fed officials generally \"hawk\" and say that they will still be aggressive in rate hike, there may also be differences. He pointed out:</p><p>From the dot plot, some directors expect the Federal Funds rate to peak at 4.75% next year, while others think that the highest interest rate may reach 4.5% and 4.25%. Although these differences may not seem small, given investors' close attention to interest rates, they will also have a significant impact on the stock market. If Fed officials begin to favor more dovish monetary policy, such as raising interest rates more slowly, then U.S. stocks may rise. However, we expect that interest rates will eventually have to rise to 5%, which may be bad for investors.<b>In addition, there will be a series of blockbuster data releases next week.</b>Next Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its third estimate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, and may revise some earlier data.</p><p>Some analysts said that although GDP data usually does not have much impact on the market, any signs that the economy is further falling into recession may affect investor sentiment.</p><p>It is worth noting that<b>The BEA will release its consumer price index next Friday, a key measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve closely monitors.</b></p><p>The index rose 6.8% year-on-year in June this year, the highest level since 1982. The index slowed to 6.3% in July, and analysts now generally expect the core PCE to rise 4.7% in August.</p><p>Ignoring the plunge in U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, the Fed still expects aggressive rate hike</p><p>After the Fed released hawkish signals this week that hit the market hard, Fed officials seem to have no intention of \"rescuing the market\". Powell said that the economy may enter a \"new normal\" after the disruption of the epidemic, and we continue to deal with an unusual set of disruptions. Fed Vice Chairman Brainard reiterated that inflation is very high.</p><p>After the Fed meeting, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its forecast for the Fed's rate hike. It is expected that the Fed will make a fourth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points in November and a rate hike of 50 basis points in December. It is expected that the peak interest rate will reach 4.5%-4.75%, higher than the previous expectation of 4%-4.25%.</p><p>Some analysts believe that Fed officials are facing a new path that cannot easily exit sharp rate hike, which means that the Fed may eventually tighten excessively and push the U.S. economy into the abyss of recession.</p><p>Matt Weller, head of the global research team of online brokerage Jiasheng Group, believes that judging from the Fed's own interest rate forecasts, there is no indication that it will turn to interest rate cuts before 2024, which means that the Fed will Unswervingly fight inflation.</p><p>Weller predicts that,<b>U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar will rise next week, while the recent trend of falling U.S. stocks and risky assets may continue.</b></p><p>Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, an online foreign exchange trading platform, said:</p><p><b>Looking at the coming weeks, it seems that no economic data or Fed speech can convince markets that the Fed's aggressive tightening pace will soon stop, that is, the Fed's tightening pace may become a new normal.</b>We expect the S&P 500 to move down to a low of 3,470, which could be attractive to some long-term investors.</body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell made two appearances, how will the Fed guide U.S. stocks next week?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell made two appearances, how will the Fed guide U.S. stocks next week?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-25 18:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points as scheduled, pushing Federal Funds rate to 3%-3.25%, the highest level since early 2008. At the same time, it also unexpectedly released a stronger hawkish tendency, suggesting that there will still be many sharp rate hike.</p><p>The market responded with continuous sharp drops. On Friday, the S&P 500 index fell to 3,693 points, down 23% from its January peak. In addition, U.S. bond yields have continued to hit a fifteen-year high since 2 years.</p><p>Some analysts predict that since Powell released a clear signal to tolerate anti-inflation at the expense of recession after the announcement of the Fed's decision, this means that investors will face continued market volatility next. The analysis said:</p><p><b>In the next few weeks, there are two main factors that may affect U.S. stocks-the release of Federal Reserve officials and the release of data such as inflation.</b>Deutsche Bank economist Brett Ryan said Powell is expected to speak next Tuesday and Wednesday, and 12 of the 19 Fed governors will also speak out next week. He said:</p><p><b>The first and second commands of the Federal Reserve and a group of Fed governors will start delivering speeches one after another next week, and almost all statements may involve the economic outlook and monetary policy.</b>Ryan believes that although Fed officials generally \"hawk\" and say that they will still be aggressive in rate hike, there may also be differences. He pointed out:</p><p>From the dot plot, some directors expect the Federal Funds rate to peak at 4.75% next year, while others think that the highest interest rate may reach 4.5% and 4.25%. Although these differences may not seem small, given investors' close attention to interest rates, they will also have a significant impact on the stock market. If Fed officials begin to favor more dovish monetary policy, such as raising interest rates more slowly, then U.S. stocks may rise. However, we expect that interest rates will eventually have to rise to 5%, which may be bad for investors.<b>In addition, there will be a series of blockbuster data releases next week.</b>Next Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its third estimate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, and may revise some earlier data.</p><p>Some analysts said that although GDP data usually does not have much impact on the market, any signs that the economy is further falling into recession may affect investor sentiment.</p><p>It is worth noting that<b>The BEA will release its consumer price index next Friday, a key measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve closely monitors.</b></p><p>The index rose 6.8% year-on-year in June this year, the highest level since 1982. The index slowed to 6.3% in July, and analysts now generally expect the core PCE to rise 4.7% in August.</p><p>Ignoring the plunge in U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds, the Fed still expects aggressive rate hike</p><p>After the Fed released hawkish signals this week that hit the market hard, Fed officials seem to have no intention of \"rescuing the market\". Powell said that the economy may enter a \"new normal\" after the disruption of the epidemic, and we continue to deal with an unusual set of disruptions. Fed Vice Chairman Brainard reiterated that inflation is very high.</p><p>After the Fed meeting, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its forecast for the Fed's rate hike. It is expected that the Fed will make a fourth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points in November and a rate hike of 50 basis points in December. It is expected that the peak interest rate will reach 4.5%-4.75%, higher than the previous expectation of 4%-4.25%.</p><p>Some analysts believe that Fed officials are facing a new path that cannot easily exit sharp rate hike, which means that the Fed may eventually tighten excessively and push the U.S. economy into the abyss of recession.</p><p>Matt Weller, head of the global research team of online brokerage Jiasheng Group, believes that judging from the Fed's own interest rate forecasts, there is no indication that it will turn to interest rate cuts before 2024, which means that the Fed will Unswervingly fight inflation.</p><p>Weller predicts that,<b>U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar will rise next week, while the recent trend of falling U.S. stocks and risky assets may continue.</b></p><p>Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, an online foreign exchange trading platform, said:</p><p><b>Looking at the coming weeks, it seems that no economic data or Fed speech can convince markets that the Fed's aggressive tightening pace will soon stop, that is, the Fed's tightening pace may become a new normal.</b>We expect the S&P 500 to move down to a low of 3,470, which could be attractive to some long-term investors.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671100\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671100","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1162800991","content_text":"美联储周三如期公布连续第三次加息75个基点，将联邦基金利率推至3％-3.25％，为2008年初以来最高水平，同时还意外释放更强的鹰派倾向，暗示仍将多次大幅加息。对此市场以连续大跌回应。周五，标普500指数跌至3693点，较1月份的峰值已经跌去23%。此外，2年起美债收益率继续刷新十五年来高位。有分析师预计，由于鲍威尔在美联储决议公布后释放出容忍以衰退为代价抗通胀的明确信号，这意味着接下来投资者即将面对的是持续动荡的市场。分析称：在未来几周股内，主要有两个因素可能会影响美股——美联储官员放风和通胀等数据公布。德意志银行经济学家布雷特·瑞安（Brett Ryan）表示，鲍威尔预计将于下周二和周三露面讲话，且在19个美联储理事中，其中12个也将于下周发声。他称：美联储一二把手和一众美联储理事都将于下周开始陆续发表讲话，几乎所有表态都可能涉及经济前景和货币政策。瑞安认为，尽管美联储官员们普遍“放鹰”称仍将激进加息，不过也可能存在分歧。他指出：从点阵图来看，有些理事预计明年联邦基金利率将达到4.75%的峰值，而有些则认为最高利率有可能达到4.5%和4.25%。尽管这些差异看起来不大，但是考虑到投资者对利率的密切关注，也会对股市产生重大影响。如果美联储官员开始倾向于较为温和的货币政策，例如更缓慢地提高利率，那么美股可能将会上涨。不过我们预计，利率最终将会不得不升至5%，这可能对投资者不利。此外，下周还会有一系列重磅数据发布。下周四，美国经济分析局（BEA）将发布对美国第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）的第三次预估，并可能修正一些较早的数据。有分析表示，尽管GDP数据通常不会对市场产生太大影响，但是任何表明经济进一步陷入衰退的迹象都可能影响投资者情绪。值得注意的是，BEA将于下周五发布消费者物价指数，这是美联储密切关注的衡量通胀的关键指标。该指数在今年6月份同比上涨6.8%，这是自1982年以来的最高水平，7月该指数放缓至6.3%，如今分析师普遍预计，8月核心PCE将上涨4.7%。无视美股美债惨跌 美联储仍预计激进加息本周美联储释放鹰派信号重创市场后，美联储官员似乎没有“救市”的打算。鲍威尔表示，疫情干扰后经济可能进入“新常态”，我们继续应对一系列异乎寻常的干扰。美联储副主席布雷纳德重申通胀非常高。而在美联储会后，高盛大幅上调了对美联储加息的预期，预计11月联储会连续第四次加息75个基点，12月将加息50个基点，并预计利率峰值将达到4.5%-4.75%，高于此前预期的4%-4.25%。有分析认为，美联储官员面临着无法轻松退出大幅加息的新路径，这意味着美联储最终可能会过度紧缩，并将美国经济推入衰退的深渊。在线经纪机构嘉盛集团全球研究团队主管马特·韦勒（Matt Weller）认为，从美联储自己做出的利率预测来看，没有任何迹象显示其会在2024年之前转向降息，这意味着美联储将会坚定不移地对抗通胀。韦勒预计，下周美债收益率和美元将会上涨，而美股和风险资产下跌的近期趋势可能将会得到延续。在线外汇交易平台安达公司（OANDA）高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚（Edward Moya）表示：从未来几周来看，似乎任何经济数据或美联储的讲话都无法让市场相信美联储激进的紧缩步伐很快就会停止，即美联储收紧步伐可能将成为一种新的常态。我们预计，标准普尔500指数将会下行至3470的低点，这对一些长期投资者来说可能会很有吸引力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913971422,"gmtCreate":1663901686667,"gmtModify":1676537360234,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913971422","repostId":"9919488316","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9919488316,"gmtCreate":1663844408000,"gmtModify":1676537348237,"author":{"id":"3527667592269412","authorId":"3527667592269412","name":"OptionsTracker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f1f839aad7a15f602f3f42eaad51af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667592269412","idStr":"3527667592269412"},"themes":[],"title":"Hot stocks covered call  reference [September 22]","htmlText":"Selling covered call options (sell covered call) is a strategy adopted by many large funds. It can also be used by retail investors in the US stock market.You can get income while holding it. This strategy is very suitable for stocks that have long-term positions, but they have not moved but they are not in a bearish position recently or are in a bearish position recently. It can be a good strategy for mature investors to roll over when holding some targets for a long time. Income comparison Assume that investors hold 200 shares of Amazon from January 1 to December 17, 2021 If there is no operation during the holding period, the final total assets will be USD 675,484 If the covered call strategy is carried out, it will be operated once a week; if 100 shares are sold after the exercise, ano","listText":"Selling covered call options (sell covered call) is a strategy adopted by many large funds. It can also be used by retail investors in the US stock market.You can get income while holding it. This strategy is very suitable for stocks that have long-term positions, but they have not moved but they are not in a bearish position recently or are in a bearish position recently. It can be a good strategy for mature investors to roll over when holding some targets for a long time. Income comparison Assume that investors hold 200 shares of Amazon from January 1 to December 17, 2021 If there is no operation during the holding period, the final total assets will be USD 675,484 If the covered call strategy is carried out, it will be operated once a week; if 100 shares are sold after the exercise, ano","text":"Selling covered call options (sell covered call) is a strategy adopted by many large funds. It can also be used by retail investors in the US stock market.You can get income while holding it. This strategy is very suitable for stocks that have long-term positions, but they have not moved but they are not in a bearish position recently or are in a bearish position recently. It can be a good strategy for mature investors to roll over when holding some targets for a long time. Income comparison Assume that investors hold 200 shares of Amazon from January 1 to December 17, 2021 If there is no operation during the holding period, the final total assets will be USD 675,484 If the covered call strategy is carried out, it will be operated once a week; if 100 shares are sold after the exercise, ano","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be4ad594d709020d91c8496e1f9e7c9"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919488316","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9949364960,"gmtCreate":1678373099050,"gmtModify":1678373102870,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949364960","repostId":"627254644","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":627254644,"gmtCreate":1678372314467,"gmtModify":1678372314467,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"開盤 | 美股小幅高開，京東跌超5%","htmlText":"3月9日，美股小幅高開，道指漲0.42%，納指漲0.02%，標普500指數漲0.20%。京東跌超5%，此前CEO表示在進一步優化產品組合、簡化內部機制的過程中，業績可能會受到短期影響。Silvergate Capital跌超34%，公司週三宣佈停止營業並將全額退還存款。熱門中概股走低，京東跌超5%，嗶哩嗶哩跌逾3%，阿里巴巴、理想汽車、蔚來跌近2%。","listText":"3月9日，美股小幅高開，道指漲0.42%，納指漲0.02%，標普500指數漲0.20%。京東跌超5%，此前CEO表示在進一步優化產品組合、簡化內部機制的過程中，業績可能會受到短期影響。Silvergate Capital跌超34%，公司週三宣佈停止營業並將全額退還存款。熱門中概股走低，京東跌超5%，嗶哩嗶哩跌逾3%，阿里巴巴、理想汽車、蔚來跌近2%。","text":"3月9日，美股小幅高開，道指漲0.42%，納指漲0.02%，標普500指數漲0.20%。京東跌超5%，此前CEO表示在進一步優化產品組合、簡化內部機制的過程中，業績可能會受到短期影響。Silvergate Capital跌超34%，公司週三宣佈停止營業並將全額退還存款。熱門中概股走低，京東跌超5%，嗶哩嗶哩跌逾3%，阿里巴巴、理想汽車、蔚來跌近2%。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbbae2ae917745c5869995d01ff8d5a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627254644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059181801,"gmtCreate":1654311540403,"gmtModify":1676535430086,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059181801","repostId":"1158395460","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158395460","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654310619,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158395460?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 10:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158395460","media":"中国证券报","summary":"数据显示，二季度以来近六成百亿私募隐形重仓股下跌。其中，医药生物行业的隐形重仓股跌幅居前。有百亿私募损失惨重，一只重仓股就带来了约1亿元的浮亏。不过，高毅邓晓峰、冯柳以及少数派投资等，捕获二季度的大牛","content":"<p><div>The data shows that since the second quarter, nearly 60% of the tens of billions of private equity invisible awkwardness stocks have fallen. Among them, the invisible Awkwardness stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological industry were among the top losers. Tens of billions of private equity suffered heavy losses, and a heavily held stock brought about a floating loss of about 100 million yuan. However, Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, Feng Liu and minority investments captured the big bull stocks in the second quarter. Deng Xiaofeng's Awkwardness shares have soared 47.59%. Since the second quarter, especially after May, the A-share market has shown a rebound trend, with automobiles, military industry, new energy, etc. rebounding significantly. Some tens of billions of invisible awkwardness stocks at the end of the first quarter of private placement also achieved good performance. Among them, private equity tycoons Gao Yi and Deng Xiaofeng...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng and Feng Liu captured Q2 big bull stocks! There are also tens of billions of private equity holdings plummeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 10:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The data shows that since the second quarter, nearly 60% of the tens of billions of private equity invisible awkwardness stocks have fallen. Among them, the invisible Awkwardness stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological industry were among the top losers. Tens of billions of private equity suffered heavy losses, and a heavily held stock brought about a floating loss of about 100 million yuan. However, Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, Feng Liu and minority investments captured the big bull stocks in the second quarter. Deng Xiaofeng's Awkwardness shares have soared 47.59%. Since the second quarter, especially after May, the A-share market has shown a rebound trend, with automobiles, military industry, new energy, etc. rebounding significantly. Some tens of billions of invisible awkwardness stocks at the end of the first quarter of private placement also achieved good performance. Among them, private equity tycoons Gao Yi and Deng Xiaofeng...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","02333":"长城汽车"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158395460","content_text":"数据显示，二季度以来近六成百亿私募隐形重仓股下跌。其中，医药生物行业的隐形重仓股跌幅居前。有百亿私募损失惨重，一只重仓股就带来了约1亿元的浮亏。不过，高毅邓晓峰、冯柳以及少数派投资等，捕获二季度的大牛股。邓晓峰重仓股大涨47.59%二季度以来，尤其是进入5月之后，A股市场呈现出反弹趋势，汽车、军工、新能源等反弹幅度较大。一些百亿私募一季度末的隐形重仓股，也取得了不俗的表现。其中，私募大佬高毅邓晓峰，就捕获了一只大牛股华秦科技。资料显示，华秦科技成立于1992年，在今年3月初上市，是一家主要从事特种功能材料的军工企业，业务包括隐身材料、伪装材料及防护材料的研发、生产和销售，产品主要应用于重大国防武器装备如飞机、主战坦克、舰船、导弹等。Wind数据显示，一季度末，邓晓峰管理的高毅晓峰2号致信基金和高毅晓峰鸿远集合资金信托计划分别位列华秦科技的第二和第三大流通股东，分别持有86万股和76万股。二季度以来，华秦科技大涨47.59%。高毅旗下另一位私募大佬冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金，也有一只隐形重仓股龙软科技二季度以来上涨33.18%。龙软科技是一家专注于煤矿基础地理信息系统与专业应用软件开发与销售的煤炭智能开采厂商。高毅邻山1号远望基金自2021年三季度首次进入龙软科技前十大流通股东之列，持股100万股，并一直持有，期间龙软科技股价经历了不小的波动。冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金的另一只隐形重仓股容知日新，是一家专注于工业互联网领域的工业设备智能运维商。自2021年三季度上市以来披露的定期报告显示，高毅邻山1号远望基金一直是该公司的第一大流通股东。二季度以来，该股上涨超过30%。此外，百亿私募少数派投资、玄元投资和宁波宁聚的隐形重仓股冰川网络，二季度以来实现了48.89%的涨幅。玄元投资重仓的建筑材料公司祁连山，二季度以来上涨了29.01%。邓晓峰持有的爱博医疗、源乐晟持有的明月镜片、清和泉持有的立中集团、盘京投资持有的兰花科创，二季度以来都实现了超过20%的涨幅。近六成隐形重仓股下跌不过，几家欢喜几家愁，有一些百亿私募二季度被隐形重仓股大幅拖累。百亿私募重仓的三只医药生物股普利制药、振东制药和诚达药业，二季度以来跌幅居前，分别下跌37.54%、33.82%和29.66%。其中，一季度末，盘京投资旗下的盛信2期私募证券投资基金重仓普利制药396万股，慎知资产更是重仓该公司近610万股。若二季度没有减持，则两家公司二季度以来在该股票上分别浮亏约6000万和1亿元。整体来看，第三方平台统计的116只百亿私募隐形重仓股中，二季度以来有48只上涨，接近六成下跌。不过，展望后市，不少机构表达了乐观的态度。清和泉资本表示，5月市场受疫情消退、稳增长政策加码、美债冲高回落等影响向上修复。市场经过系统性调整后，悲观情绪得到较大程度释放，相应的市场投资机会越来越多。源乐晟表示，A股市场大概率已经触底，将慢慢走出情绪底部。具体到行业上，首选需求不受疫情影响或在疫情好转后需求可以快速恢复高增长的板块，如光伏、风电、部分制造业等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"BND":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"02333":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984139740,"gmtCreate":1667558784180,"gmtModify":1676537937519,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984139740","repostId":"1184753169","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184753169","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667558244,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184753169?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 18:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Great Wall Motors: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184753169","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"长城汽车：10月汽车销量100,208台，同比下降10.58%。10月新能源车销售10,954台，1-10月累计销售107,870台。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%. 10,954 new energy vehicles were sold in October, and the cumulative sales from January to October were 107,870 units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8360bda5b577fba878e12fdbe5279212\" tg-width=\"1704\" tg-height=\"1194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Great Wall Motors: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGreat Wall Motors: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-04 18:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>: Car sales in October were 100,208 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%. 10,954 new energy vehicles were sold in October, and the cumulative sales from January to October were 107,870 units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8360bda5b577fba878e12fdbe5279212\" tg-width=\"1704\" tg-height=\"1194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b372737679d5d673d181aeea27a71ab3","relate_stocks":{"601633":"长城汽车","02333":"长城汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184753169","content_text":"长城汽车：10月汽车销量100,208台，同比下降10.58%。10月新能源车销售10,954台，1-10月累计销售107,870台。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601633":0.9,"02333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019551845,"gmtCreate":1648612047100,"gmtModify":1676534365055,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019551845","repostId":"1153983860","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153983860","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648605050,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153983860?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 09:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Ferretti's winning rate of one lot is 92.41%, and the subscription of 2 lots is stable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153983860","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月30日，法拉帝发布公告，公司发行8358万股股份，每股定价22.88港元，每手100股，预期3月31日上市。公开发售阶段法拉帝获约1.07倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为835.8万股，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>March 30th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09638\">Ferretti</a>According to the announcement, the company issued 83.58 million shares, priced at HK $22.88 per share, with 100 shares per lot, and is expected to be listed on March 31. During the public offering stage, Ferretti was subscribed approximately 1.07 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 8.358 million shares, accounting for approximately 10% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option is exercised). A total of 8,829 valid applications were received, with a winning rate of 92.41% for one lot, and 2 subscriptions were secure for one lot.</p><p>In addition, the international offering has been oversubscribed (approximately 2.06 times), and the final number of offer shares is 75.222 million shares, equivalent to approximately 90% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option is exercised).</p><p>The relevant data compiled by Tiger International is as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a603c0e033dc5ad6c4af3cfcda2059\" tg-width=\"701\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Distribution results</b></p><p>Group A has 100 shares per lot, and the winning rate of one lot is 92.41%. If you subscribe for 2 lots, you will be sure to win one lot.</p><p>The head of Group B is 2,000 lots (200,000 shares), and 2,000 lots (200,000 shares) are allocated.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74300acbbc37d21260f8622a26d247c6\" tg-width=\"559\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4af8a61f316ae7e16af89f589ef1560\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The net proceeds of approximately HK $1.771 billion will be used for the following purposes: 68% will be used to expand the product portfolio and further promote excellent end-to-end operations; 24% for strengthening the unique ancillary service portfolio and expanding the most potential vertical segments; 8% will be used to further develop brand promotion activities and for other general corporate purposes. Ferretti is a recognized leader in the global luxury yacht industry, with a long-standing set of iconic brands as well as exceptional high-end manufacturing capabilities. As one of the oldest Italian luxury yacht manufacturers, the company has been acquiring and integrating other leading yacht brands and production facilities since its establishment in 1968, playing an important role in leading the development of the global luxury yacht industry. The company's seven brands-Riva, Wally, Ferretti Yachts, Pershing, Itama, CRN and Custom Line-are globally recognized symbols of luxury, uniqueness, Italian design, quality, craftsmanship, innovation and performance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c4786d3d54c7834d2d6ff504cdfae9\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Ferretti's largest controlling shareholder is Weichai Group from Shandong, China, holding 86.055% of the shares, while the second largest shareholder is F Investments, controlled by the Ferrari family, the world's top supercar brand, holding 11.138% of the shares.</b>In terms of financial data, from 2018 to 2020, the company achieved revenue of approximately 631 million euros, 678 million euros and 638 million euros respectively; During the same period, net profits were 30.72 million euros, 26.599 million euros and 21.982 million euros. In the first nine months of 2021, it achieved revenue of approximately 693 million euros and net profit of 32.089 million euros.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d51b077689602684005fb27f5b193e9c\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In terms of industry, the global yacht market grew steadily from 2016 to 2019, but declined in 2020 due to the pandemic. Due to the expected steady growth of ultra-high net worth individuals and very high net worth individuals in the future, coupled with the rapid growth of demand for yachts by these individuals in the post-pandemic era, the global yacht market is expected to bottom out between 2020 and 2025, reaching 26.8 billion euros in 2025, representing a CAGR of 7.3% between 2020 and 2025.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9559dfdb68c0bac5bffbe3a858e40d4d\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ferretti's winning rate of one lot is 92.41%, and the subscription of 2 lots is stable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFerretti's winning rate of one lot is 92.41%, and the subscription of 2 lots is stable\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-30 09:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>March 30th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09638\">Ferretti</a>According to the announcement, the company issued 83.58 million shares, priced at HK $22.88 per share, with 100 shares per lot, and is expected to be listed on March 31. During the public offering stage, Ferretti was subscribed approximately 1.07 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 8.358 million shares, accounting for approximately 10% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option is exercised). A total of 8,829 valid applications were received, with a winning rate of 92.41% for one lot, and 2 subscriptions were secure for one lot.</p><p>In addition, the international offering has been oversubscribed (approximately 2.06 times), and the final number of offer shares is 75.222 million shares, equivalent to approximately 90% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option is exercised).</p><p>The relevant data compiled by Tiger International is as follows:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a603c0e033dc5ad6c4af3cfcda2059\" tg-width=\"701\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Distribution results</b></p><p>Group A has 100 shares per lot, and the winning rate of one lot is 92.41%. If you subscribe for 2 lots, you will be sure to win one lot.</p><p>The head of Group B is 2,000 lots (200,000 shares), and 2,000 lots (200,000 shares) are allocated.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74300acbbc37d21260f8622a26d247c6\" tg-width=\"559\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4af8a61f316ae7e16af89f589ef1560\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The net proceeds of approximately HK $1.771 billion will be used for the following purposes: 68% will be used to expand the product portfolio and further promote excellent end-to-end operations; 24% for strengthening the unique ancillary service portfolio and expanding the most potential vertical segments; 8% will be used to further develop brand promotion activities and for other general corporate purposes. Ferretti is a recognized leader in the global luxury yacht industry, with a long-standing set of iconic brands as well as exceptional high-end manufacturing capabilities. As one of the oldest Italian luxury yacht manufacturers, the company has been acquiring and integrating other leading yacht brands and production facilities since its establishment in 1968, playing an important role in leading the development of the global luxury yacht industry. The company's seven brands-Riva, Wally, Ferretti Yachts, Pershing, Itama, CRN and Custom Line-are globally recognized symbols of luxury, uniqueness, Italian design, quality, craftsmanship, innovation and performance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c4786d3d54c7834d2d6ff504cdfae9\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Ferretti's largest controlling shareholder is Weichai Group from Shandong, China, holding 86.055% of the shares, while the second largest shareholder is F Investments, controlled by the Ferrari family, the world's top supercar brand, holding 11.138% of the shares.</b>In terms of financial data, from 2018 to 2020, the company achieved revenue of approximately 631 million euros, 678 million euros and 638 million euros respectively; During the same period, net profits were 30.72 million euros, 26.599 million euros and 21.982 million euros. In the first nine months of 2021, it achieved revenue of approximately 693 million euros and net profit of 32.089 million euros.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d51b077689602684005fb27f5b193e9c\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In terms of industry, the global yacht market grew steadily from 2016 to 2019, but declined in 2020 due to the pandemic. Due to the expected steady growth of ultra-high net worth individuals and very high net worth individuals in the future, coupled with the rapid growth of demand for yachts by these individuals in the post-pandemic era, the global yacht market is expected to bottom out between 2020 and 2025, reaching 26.8 billion euros in 2025, representing a CAGR of 7.3% between 2020 and 2025.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9559dfdb68c0bac5bffbe3a858e40d4d\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46eee534020af750b0bef2df9637accf","relate_stocks":{"09638":"法拉帝"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153983860","content_text":"3月30日，法拉帝发布公告，公司发行8358万股股份，每股定价22.88港元，每手100股，预期3月31日上市。公开发售阶段法拉帝获约1.07倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为835.8万股，占发售股份总数的约10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获8829份有效申请，一手中签率92.41% ，认购2手稳中一手。此外，国际发售已获超额认购（约2.06倍），发售股份最终数目为7522.2万股，相当于发售股份总数的约90%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。老虎国际整理相关数据如下表：分配结果甲组每手100股，一手中签率92.41% ，认购2手稳中一手。乙组头为2000手（20万股），获配2000手（20万股）。所得款项净额约17.71亿港元将用作以下用途：68%将用于扩大产品组合，进一步推动卓越的端到端运营；24%用于强化独特的辅助服务组合并扩大最具潜力的垂直分部；8%将用于进一步发展品牌推广活动以及用于其他一般企业用途。法拉帝是全球豪华游艇行业的公认领导者，拥有一组历史悠久的标志性品牌以及卓越的高端制造能力。作为历史最悠久的意大利豪华游艇生产商之一，自1968年成立业务以来，公司一直在收购及整合其他领先的游艇品牌及生产设施，在引领全球豪华游艇业的发展方面发挥著重要作用。公司旗下七个品牌— Riva、Wally、Ferretti Yachts（法拉帝游艇）、Pershing、Itama、CRN及Custom Line — 为全球公认的奢华、独特、意大利设计、品质、工艺、创新及性能的象征。法拉帝的第一大控股股东是来自中国山东的潍柴集团，持股86.055%，而第二大股东则是世界顶级超跑品牌法拉利家族控制的F Investments，持股11.138%。财务数据方面，于2018年至2020年，公司分别实现收益约6.31亿欧元、6.78亿欧元及6.38亿欧元；同期实现净利润3072万欧元、2659.9万欧元及2198.2万欧元。于2021年前9个月实现收益约6.93亿欧元，净利润3208.9万欧元。行业方面，全球游艇市场于2016年至2019年期间稳定增长，但在2020年因疫情而下降由于预计超高净值人士和极高净值人士将于未来保持稳定增长，加上该等人士于后疫情时代对游艇的需求快速增长，预计全球游艇市场将于2020年至2025年期间触底反弹，于2025年达到268亿欧元，2020年至2025年期间的复合年增长率为7.3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09638":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992651983,"gmtCreate":1661308049144,"gmtModify":1676536494569,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992651983","repostId":"1152609265","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9903645914,"gmtCreate":1659025222438,"gmtModify":1676536245800,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9903645914","repostId":"1113256878","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113256878","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659020692,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113256878?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-28 23:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"MINISO Announces Preliminary Findings on Blue Orca Short Selling Report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113256878","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月28日，名创优品公布针对Blue Orca沽空报告的初步调查结果：1）该报告中关于本公司特许经营业务模式的指控毫无依据。2）该报告指控叶主席通过一系列房地产交易挪用首次公开发售所得款项亦毫无依据。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>July 28,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>Announced the preliminary findings of the Blue Orca short selling report: 1) The allegations in the report regarding the company's franchise business model are groundless. 2) The report's allegation that Chairman Yip misappropriated the IPO proceeds through a series of real estate transactions is also unfounded. 3) The report's description of the company's business prospects is unfounded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7433631ec0b03d5853051712cfeea06f\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>MINISO Announces Preliminary Findings on Blue Orca Short Selling Report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMINISO Announces Preliminary Findings on Blue Orca Short Selling Report\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-28 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>July 28,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>Announced the preliminary findings of the Blue Orca short selling report: 1) The allegations in the report regarding the company's franchise business model are groundless. 2) The report's allegation that Chairman Yip misappropriated the IPO proceeds through a series of real estate transactions is also unfounded. 3) The report's description of the company's business prospects is unfounded.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7433631ec0b03d5853051712cfeea06f\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472dc158ff5e5c1915c489a58d8b2bb6","relate_stocks":{"MNSO":"名创优品","BK4114":"综合货品商店","BK1246":"综合货品商店","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","09896":"名创优品"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113256878","content_text":"7月28日，名创优品公布针对Blue Orca沽空报告的初步调查结果：1）该报告中关于本公司特许经营业务模式的指控毫无依据。2）该报告指控叶主席通过一系列房地产交易挪用首次公开发售所得款项亦毫无依据。3）该报告关于本公司业务前景的描述毫无依据。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90066":0.9,"09896":0.9,"MNSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002123749,"gmtCreate":1641947624372,"gmtModify":1676533664969,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002123749","repostId":"2202781343","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2202781343","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200"},"pubTimestamp":1641947482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2202781343?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-12 08:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pony Ma: Tencent is just an ordinary company and can be replaced at any time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2202781343","media":"中国基金报","summary":"而马化腾的一番话，近日被媒体曝光，也引发了热议。深圳2022首盘只卖出1套房近日，深圳市住建局官网“深圳市房地产信息平台”显示，12月24日安联尚璟府获批353套住宅，15批次购房者入围意向登记人名册，截至1月4日晚仅B座2101房签署认购书1套。光明安联尚璟府为2022年深圳的首个新盘，其推售353套房源认筹率小于5%。","content":"<p><div>On the evening of the 11th, nothing big happened in A-shares. Let's pay attention to other interesting things. Pony Ma Huateng: Tencent is just an ordinary company that can be replaced at any time. In the past year, Hong Kong stocks have been affected by the game between China and the United States. In response to the anti-monopoly and anti-capital disorderly expansion in the Internet field, the rectification of the education and training field has inhibited market vitality, and high inflation. As well as the disturbance of the epidemic, Hong Kong stocks have experienced a deeper adjustment in 2021. Pony Ma's remarks, recently exposed by the media, also caused heated discussion. According to \"LatePost\", at the staff meeting late last year, Pony Ma commented on a series of...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pony Ma: Tencent is just an ordinary company and can be replaced at any time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPony Ma: Tencent is just an ordinary company and can be replaced at any time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/6\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-12 08:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On the evening of the 11th, nothing big happened in A-shares. Let's pay attention to other interesting things. Pony Ma Huateng: Tencent is just an ordinary company that can be replaced at any time. In the past year, Hong Kong stocks have been affected by the game between China and the United States. In response to the anti-monopoly and anti-capital disorderly expansion in the Internet field, the rectification of the education and training field has inhibited market vitality, and high inflation. As well as the disturbance of the epidemic, Hong Kong stocks have experienced a deeper adjustment in 2021. Pony Ma's remarks, recently exposed by the media, also caused heated discussion. According to \"LatePost\", at the staff meeting late last year, Pony Ma commented on a series of...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8631e5978fd6e844747f1c39333f8642","relate_stocks":{"BK1526":"科网股","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK1586":"云计算","BK1531":"手游股","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","00700":"腾讯控股","BK1589":"北水核心资产","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2202781343","content_text":"11日晚间，A股没啥大事发生，我们来关注一下其他有意思的事情。马化腾：腾讯只是一家普通公司随时都可以被替换过去的一年，港股方面，受到中美博弈，针对互联网领域的反垄断及反资本无序扩张，对教培领域的整治抑制市场活力，高通胀以及疫情扰动等影响，港股2021年经历了较深度的调整。而马化腾的一番话，近日被媒体曝光，也引发了热议。据《晚点 LatePost》，去年底的员工大会上，马化腾对2021年发生的一系列变化表达了自己的想法，他说，腾讯只是国家社会大发展期间的一家普通公司，是国家发展浪潮下的受益者，并不是什么基础服务，随时都可以被替换。未来，腾讯在服务国家和社会的时候，要做到不缺位、做到位、不越位，做好助手、做好连接器。2021年，港股经历了惨淡的一年，恒生科技指数年跌幅达 32.70%，一度较 2 月高点腰斩。但港股公司仍未停止回购步伐。在港股刚过去的几个交易日中，包括腾讯、小米等正加码回购公司股票。腾讯控股更是耗巨资回购，1月5日-1月10日累计回购耗资8.14亿港元。11日晚间，腾讯公告11日回购44万股股份，价格区间为454.2港元-461.8港元，耗资约2.02亿港元。彭博亿万富豪指数显示，在监管风暴的背景下，中国最富有的10位科技大亨，2021年净资产合计蒸发800亿美元，约合人民币5100亿元！彭博亿万富豪指数显示，拼多多公司创始人黄峥今年的损失最大，一共损失429亿美元，约合人民币2738亿元，占其个人财富总额的三分之二。直接原因在于：拼多多股价暴跌近70%。小米公司创始人雷军排名第二，财富缩水145亿美元；阿里巴巴创始人马云位列第三，财富缩水126亿美元。其余位列“损失榜”的互联网科技大佬包括，腾讯马化腾（101亿美元）、百度李彦宏（53亿美元）、美团王兴（50亿美元）、腾讯CTO张志东（48亿美元）、京东刘强东（46亿美元）。太魔幻！抢房人不见了？深圳2022首盘只卖出1套房 近日，深圳市住建局官网“深圳市房地产信息平台”显示，12月24日安联尚璟府获批353套住宅，15批次购房者入围意向登记人名册，截至1月4日晚仅B座2101房签署认购书1套。光明安联尚璟府为2022年深圳的首个新盘，其推售353套房源认筹率小于5%。据悉，该项目备案均价为5.19万/平方米，户型主为89-111平方米的刚需房类型。资料显示，光明安联尚璟府位于深圳市光明中心区双明大道北侧，占地面积约1.8万平方米，建筑面积约9.2万平方米。该项目由安徽安联高速公路有限公司开发建设，周边分布中科院深圳理工大学附属实验高中，6号线楼村站、光明大街站、科学公园、东周文化公园等生活配套。易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进认为，虽然深圳购房需求很大，但显然已经减弱，项目营销需要关注市场动态，在营销方面更多创新。部分楼盘开盘遇冷，主要有三个原因。第一，去年9月份以来，深圳新盘供应规模总体较好。根据易居研究院智库中心提供的数据，此前深圳新盘供应套数一般不会超过7000套。而9月份开始，屡屡破万套，9-12月份新盘供应套数分别为14213、5840、11046、9656套，供应规模明显放量，客观上使得部分项目去库存面临竞争压力。第二，此类待销售的项目面临一些软肋或劣势，或者说认购方面遇到购房者的更为挑剔的选择，如位置略偏远等。第三，当然更为关键的是，相比周边的项目，销售清淡的项目或许价格略高，自然容易面临销售困难、去化压力大的问题。另外，有业内人士分析，光明、龙岗、龙华这些供应大区新盘去年下半年就已经销量疲于上半年了。9月份以后，深圳整个新盘市场因为供应持续放量叠加房企财务危机等负面消息层出不穷，降价走量就开始慢慢出现了。而且，春节即将来临，市场推盘节奏放慢，预计春节前市场都较为平淡。另外，据央视报道，深圳的房租也在降，甚至还找不到租客。临近春节，深圳房屋租赁市场需求普遍冷淡，成交有明显回落。福田、南山、宝安等多个区域当前出租难、出租周期拉长的问题困扰着不少深圳房东。许多业主主动提出减租以维持出租率。从事房地产中介工作多年的赖世栋称，最近的租赁市场是他近几年来所经历最惨淡的时候，交易量低迷的同时，最近很多业主主动找他降价调整，有些业主一降再降，只求在春节到来前把空置的房源租出去。业内人士表示，在成交低迷，空置率进一步高企的背景下，今年深圳租赁市场的供需关系发生了很大的变化，市场供大于求，租赁市场不景气，租客的议价空间随之增大。部分租客知道最近市场房源比较充足，价格也比较好谈，所以开始有一些换租的计划。韩女士最近就一直在看房子，原来租一房一厅大概90平方米的房子，年底租赁市场低迷，也让她有了换房的念头。深圳市民 韩女士称明显能感觉到，基本上都有500至1000元的差距降幅。去年11000元到12000元左右的三房，现在业主心理预期可能9600元、9800元左右就能租得到。深圳中原研究中心监测显示，2021年深圳全市房屋租金呈下跌的趋势，从整体租金水平来看，跌幅约4.5%；从租金均价来看，和2020年相比，2021年租金均价约72元/平，下跌5.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1,"TCEHY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911954164,"gmtCreate":1664123269859,"gmtModify":1676537393467,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911954164","repostId":"1127743871","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127743871","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664089688,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127743871?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 15:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla cuts price by 8,000 yuan in disguise? Salespeople: Temporary activities","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127743871","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一份关于特斯拉车型能够享受保险补贴的邮件在网络流传。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, a report about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Emails that vehicle models can enjoy insurance subsidies are circulating on the Internet. According to the email, car owners who completed the pick-up of their cars between September 16 and September 30 can enjoy an insurance subsidy of 8,000 yuan if they choose to purchase insurance in Tesla stores, which can be directly used to reduce the price of the car. This behavior was also interpreted by the market as Tesla's \"disguised price reduction of 8,000 yuan\".</p><p>Tesla store sales staff confirmed the authenticity of the content of the online email, saying that this was a temporary activity to sprint the delivery volume. Anyone who picks up the car on September 30 can enjoy a subsidy of 8,000 yuan, and the car will be reduced or exempted when the final payment is delivered. price.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla cuts price by 8,000 yuan in disguise? Salespeople: Temporary activities</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla cuts price by 8,000 yuan in disguise? Salespeople: Temporary activities\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-25 15:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, a report about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Emails that vehicle models can enjoy insurance subsidies are circulating on the Internet. According to the email, car owners who completed the pick-up of their cars between September 16 and September 30 can enjoy an insurance subsidy of 8,000 yuan if they choose to purchase insurance in Tesla stores, which can be directly used to reduce the price of the car. This behavior was also interpreted by the market as Tesla's \"disguised price reduction of 8,000 yuan\".</p><p>Tesla store sales staff confirmed the authenticity of the content of the online email, saying that this was a temporary activity to sprint the delivery volume. Anyone who picks up the car on September 30 can enjoy a subsidy of 8,000 yuan, and the car will be reduced or exempted when the final payment is delivered. price.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da1808c476bfbe9388a4202f176a117","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127743871","content_text":"近期，一份关于特斯拉车型能够享受保险补贴的邮件在网络流传。邮件显示，在9月16日-9月30日期间完成提车的车主，如选择在特斯拉店内购买保险，可享受8000元保险补贴，补贴可直接用于减免车价。这一行为也被市场解读为特斯拉“变相降价8000元”。特斯拉门店销售人员证实网传邮件内容真实性，称这是临时做的一个活动，是为冲刺交付量，9月30日提车都可以享受8000元补贴，会在交付尾款时减免车价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906291411,"gmtCreate":1659546450235,"gmtModify":1705981453613,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906291411","repostId":"1109408175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109408175","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1659509817,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109408175?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-03 14:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed feels it can make a \"soft landing\" again. What signal does Powell see?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109408175","media":"Wind万得","summary":"鲍威尔不是沃克尔，不会将经济拖入衰退。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>At the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July, Powell released a \"relatively\" dovish message and downplayed expectations for a \"soft landing\" of the economy. However, with the release of some important data this week, the Fed feels that it can balance suppressing inflation and a \"soft landing\" of the economy.</p><p><b>The Fed wants to raise interest rates to 3.75%-4%</b></p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Tuesday that he still believes the economy can avoid a recession, although he expects the Fed will need to continue its rate hike to control inflation. He said: \"I think inflation in the second quarter was hotter than I expected. Now that this has happened, I think we have to go a little higher than what I said before.\"</p><p>Bullard estimates that by the end of 2022, Federal Funds rate as the Federal Reserve may have to reach 3.75%-4%. The current interest rate is 2.25%-2.5% after four rate hike this year. The rate sets the level of charges for overnight loans between banks, but it also affects many consumer debt instruments with adjustable rates. However, Bullard said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation would avoid dragging down the economy.</p><p>Why, all of a sudden, is the Fed confident of a soft landing? Outlook jobs data out this week could be the answer.</p><p><b>Employment data isn't bad</b></p><p>According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), job openings decreased to 10.7 million in June, down from a revised 11.3 million in May. That's the lowest level since 2021, but still above the pre-pandemic level of 7 million. The retail and wholesale trade sectors saw the largest decrease in unfilled jobs.</p><p>According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in June, 5.91 million people in the United States lost their jobs. Total hiring and departures were little changed from May: about 6.4 million people were hired, down slightly from 6.5 million in May. The number of resignations was 4.24 million, basically the same as last month. The total number of layoffs was 1.3 million, down from 1.4 million in May. As of December 2000, the number of unemployed people fell by 600,000, the largest monthly decline on record, except for March and April 2020.</p><p><b>Powell is not Volcker and will not drag the economy into a recession</b></p><p>Bullard compared the current situation of the Federal Reserve to the problems it faced in the 1970s and early 1980s. Inflation is now at its highest point since 1981. He believes that today's Federal Reserve will not drag the economy into recession like then-chairman Paul Volcker did in the early 1980s.</p><p>Bullard said in a speech in New York: \"Modern central banks are more credible than central banks in the 1970s. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may be able to deflate in an orderly manner and achieve a relatively soft landing.\"</p><p>As Wind said earlier, the Fed and the market's perception of the economic recession has been misaligned. The market has recently been betting on the opposite that the Federal Reserve will make a sharp rate hike, and believes that economies whose rate hike has caused negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters will fall into recession or have entered a recession. U.S. government bond yields have been falling, with only the yield difference between bonds of various maturities being compressed, indicating that investors are pessimistic about future growth.</p><p>In fact, futures pricing suggests that the Fed will cut interest rates as early as the summer of 2023 after this year's rate hike.</p><p>But Bullard believes that the Fed's ability to guide the economy to a soft landing depends largely on its credibility, especially whether financial markets and the public believe that the Fed has the will to stop inflation. He distinguishes the present from the 1970s, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in the face of inflation, but quickly pulled out.</p><p>\"In the early days, there was no such thing as central bank credibility, and now the Fed's credibility is much better than it used to be,\" Bullard said.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed feels it can make a \"soft landing\" again. What signal does Powell see?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed feels it can make a \"soft landing\" again. What signal does Powell see?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-03 14:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>At the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July, Powell released a \"relatively\" dovish message and downplayed expectations for a \"soft landing\" of the economy. However, with the release of some important data this week, the Fed feels that it can balance suppressing inflation and a \"soft landing\" of the economy.</p><p><b>The Fed wants to raise interest rates to 3.75%-4%</b></p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Tuesday that he still believes the economy can avoid a recession, although he expects the Fed will need to continue its rate hike to control inflation. He said: \"I think inflation in the second quarter was hotter than I expected. Now that this has happened, I think we have to go a little higher than what I said before.\"</p><p>Bullard estimates that by the end of 2022, Federal Funds rate as the Federal Reserve may have to reach 3.75%-4%. The current interest rate is 2.25%-2.5% after four rate hike this year. The rate sets the level of charges for overnight loans between banks, but it also affects many consumer debt instruments with adjustable rates. However, Bullard said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation would avoid dragging down the economy.</p><p>Why, all of a sudden, is the Fed confident of a soft landing? Outlook jobs data out this week could be the answer.</p><p><b>Employment data isn't bad</b></p><p>According to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), job openings decreased to 10.7 million in June, down from a revised 11.3 million in May. That's the lowest level since 2021, but still above the pre-pandemic level of 7 million. The retail and wholesale trade sectors saw the largest decrease in unfilled jobs.</p><p>According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in June, 5.91 million people in the United States lost their jobs. Total hiring and departures were little changed from May: about 6.4 million people were hired, down slightly from 6.5 million in May. The number of resignations was 4.24 million, basically the same as last month. The total number of layoffs was 1.3 million, down from 1.4 million in May. As of December 2000, the number of unemployed people fell by 600,000, the largest monthly decline on record, except for March and April 2020.</p><p><b>Powell is not Volcker and will not drag the economy into a recession</b></p><p>Bullard compared the current situation of the Federal Reserve to the problems it faced in the 1970s and early 1980s. Inflation is now at its highest point since 1981. He believes that today's Federal Reserve will not drag the economy into recession like then-chairman Paul Volcker did in the early 1980s.</p><p>Bullard said in a speech in New York: \"Modern central banks are more credible than central banks in the 1970s. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may be able to deflate in an orderly manner and achieve a relatively soft landing.\"</p><p>As Wind said earlier, the Fed and the market's perception of the economic recession has been misaligned. The market has recently been betting on the opposite that the Federal Reserve will make a sharp rate hike, and believes that economies whose rate hike has caused negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters will fall into recession or have entered a recession. U.S. government bond yields have been falling, with only the yield difference between bonds of various maturities being compressed, indicating that investors are pessimistic about future growth.</p><p>In fact, futures pricing suggests that the Fed will cut interest rates as early as the summer of 2023 after this year's rate hike.</p><p>But Bullard believes that the Fed's ability to guide the economy to a soft landing depends largely on its credibility, especially whether financial markets and the public believe that the Fed has the will to stop inflation. He distinguishes the present from the 1970s, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in the face of inflation, but quickly pulled out.</p><p>\"In the early days, there was no such thing as central bank credibility, and now the Fed's credibility is much better than it used to be,\" Bullard said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109408175","content_text":"美联储7月议息会议，鲍威尔释放“比较”鸽派的信息，并在此淡化了经济“软着陆”的预期。不过，随着本周一些重要数据公布后，美联储又觉得能够兼顾打压通胀和经济“软着陆”了。美联储要将利率提升至3.75%-4%圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）在本周二表示，仍然认为经济可以避免衰退，尽管他预计美联储将需要继续加息以控制通货膨胀。他说：“我认为，第二季度的通货膨胀比我预期的要热。现在这已经发生了，我认为我们必须比我之前说的要高一点。”布拉德估计，到2022年底，作为美联储的联邦基金利率可能必须达到3.75%-4%。在今年四次加息后，目前的利率为2.25%-2.5%。该利率设定了银行之间隔夜贷款的收费水平，但也影响了许多可调利率的消费者债务工具。不过，布拉德表示，美联储致力于抗击通胀的努力会避免拖累经济。为什么突然之间，美联储又对经济软着陆充满信心了呢？本周公布的前景就业数据可能就是答案。就业数据还不错根据最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS），6月份的职位空缺减少到1070万，低于5月份修订后的1130万。这是自2021以来的最低水平，但仍高于大流行前的700万水平。 零售和批发贸易部门的未填补工作岗位减少幅度最大。美国劳工统计局的数据显示，6月份，美国有591万人失业。 总雇佣人数和离职人数与5月份相比几乎没有变化：约640万人被雇佣，略低于5月份的650万人。辞职人数为424万，与上月基本持平。 裁员总数为130万人，低于5月份的140万人。 截至2000年12月，失业人数下降了60万人，是有记录以来，除2020年3月和4月外的最大月度降幅。鲍威尔不是沃克尔，不会将经济拖入衰退布拉德将美联储目前的状况，与20世纪70年代和80年代初面临的问题进行了比较。通货膨胀目前正处于1981年以来的最高点。他相信，今天的美联储将，不会像上世纪80年代初时任主席沃尔克（Paul Volcker）那样将经济拖入衰退。布拉德在纽约的一次演讲中表示：“现代央行比上世纪70年代的央行更具可信度。美联储和欧洲央行可能能够有序地通货紧缩，实现相对软着陆。”正如此前Wind所表示，美联储和市场对经济衰退的认知已经错位。市场最近一直在进行相反的押注，即美联储将大幅加息，并认为加息已经导致连续两个季度GDP负增长的经济体，将陷入衰退或者已经进入衰退。美国政府债券收益率一直在走低，各期限债券之间的收益率只差被压缩，表明投资者对未来增长持悲观态度。事实上，期货定价表明，美联储将在今年加息后，最早在2023年夏天降息。但布拉德认为，美联储引导经济实现软着陆的能力，在很大程度上取决于其信誉，特别是金融市场和公众是否相信美联储有意愿阻止通胀。他将现在与20世纪70年代的情况进行了区分，当时美联储在面临通胀时提高了利率，但很快就退出了。布拉德说：“早期，并不存在所谓的央行信誉，现在美联储的信誉比过去好多了。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9901667312,"gmtCreate":1659191741537,"gmtModify":1676536270288,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9901667312","repostId":"1196474579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9041864275,"gmtCreate":1656034131698,"gmtModify":1676535755210,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9041864275","repostId":"1147384376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147384376","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656028464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147384376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-24 07:54","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147384376","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ② U.S. oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both PMI indicators in the United States fell to nearly two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Fund doubled its bet on short European stocks to US $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most U.S. technology stocks rose</p><p>U.S. stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>U.S. tech stocks closed mostly higher, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 2.26%; The concept of economic restart has mostly weakened,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Fell 0.92%, United Airlines fell 2.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Fell 2.33%. In addition, Internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors all rose sharply.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, led by the new energy vehicle sector</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, led by the new energy vehicle sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Closed up 6.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Dada rose more than 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose more than 5%, Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Powder sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rose more than 1%, and just ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Closed down nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX index fell 1.72%</p><p>European stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, Britain's FTSE index fell 1%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.8% on Thursday, the lowest closing price since May 10</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to close at $104.27 a barrel, the lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are worried that aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a recession, which could dampen fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, closing down for the fourth consecutive day</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to close at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The use of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hits a new record of US $2.285 trillion</p><p>The use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. 89 participants spent $2.285 trillion, exceeding the previous high of $2.259 trillion hit on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change in line with Fed policy.</p><p>2. Powell reiterates \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, saying recession is not inevitable</p><p>While Democrats warned of recession risks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation was \"unconditional.\" Another Fed governor supports another 75 basis point interest rate hike next month. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"The overheating of our labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we are still far from the inflation target right now. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation back to 2%, because if we don't do so, we won't achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Fed still wants a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be more difficult.</p><p>3. Fed Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on the current inflation data, I expect a rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting to be appropriate, as long as the data supports it, in the next few meetings. rate hike should be at least 50 basis points. Depending on how the economy develops, further increases in the federal funds target rate range may need to be needed afterwards.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States are climbing again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The previous week, the interest rate recorded its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Falling U.S. corporate activity, soaring inflation causes factory orders and production to shrink</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step back in June, as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand for services and caused factory orders and production to shrink directly. The preliminary value of the U.S. composite output index for June released by S&P Global on Thursday slipped 2.4 points to 51.2. While still above 50, this is the second-lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p>6. Is the U.S. economy in full swing? Both PMI indicators fell near two-year lows</p><p>Financial Analytics Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by (S&P Global) on Thursday (June 23rd) showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the United States both experienced a larger-than-expected decline in June. Specific data shows that the initial value of U.S. manufacturing PMI in June recorded 52.4, a new 23-month low, far lower than market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The initial value of the manufacturing output index recorded 49.6, a 24-month low, far lower than last month's 55.2. The initial value of the business activity index (service PMI) in June recorded 51.6, significantly lower than market expectations of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, setting a new five-month low and falling below 52 for the third time since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturns a New York gun law that will allow more people to legally hold guns</p><p>On June 23rd, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York in a major ruling on gun rights, which will allow more people to legally hold guns on the streets. The justices voted 6-3 to overturn a restrictive New York gun law that required people to prove they specifically need to carry firearms in order to get a license to carry them in public. The justices said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to \"keep and bear weapons.\" It is reported that California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island all have similar laws and may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. U.S. senators sent a letter to Biden saying that he should consider restricting crude oil exports</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators urged President Joe Biden to limit crude oil exports to ensure oil supplies to the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin and Jeanne Shaheen said the \"severe spike\" in energy prices gave reason to use this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil business executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigation Committee held its fifth public hearing on the Capitol riot</p><p>On June 23, local time, the Special Investigation Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held its fifth public hearing on the investigation of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigation committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to \"legalize\" his election lies and put pressure on multiple officials. White House lawyer Eric Hirschman testified that Jeffrey Clark, a former senior Justice Department official, had indicated that he wanted to use Justice Department power to assist Trump's plan.</p><p>10. Omicron BA.4/5 is coming fiercely: repeated infection of the mutant strain with the strongest immune escape ability</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron's new mutant strains BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the United States. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is by far the Novel Coronavirus variant with the strongest immune escape ability. It can reinfect and walk through the lungs. These characteristics mean that they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Fund will double its bet on shorting European stocks to US $10.5 billion</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, and its bearish strength on stocks in the region reached its highest level in two years. The world's largest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>And SAP's personal bets exceed $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion against European stocks. The investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML and a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML, according to data compiled based on regulatory filings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>About $752 million in short bets. The number of European companies it has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs</p><p>According to the Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to rubles to levy grain tariffs and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates may reach 1.5%-2% within a year</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Slovakian central bank, said that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points in the next 12 months, bringing interest rates to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. \"It all depends on upcoming data.\" Kazimir said some eurozone countries could fall into a \"technical recession\".</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that given that Ukraine and Moldova will obtain candidate country status, the EU should prepare for enlargement. Scholz stressed that in order for a larger alliance to work, more decisions should be adopted on the principle of majority vote instead of requiring unanimity. At present, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies that they do not approve of with one vote. Previously, due to the opposition of Hungary and other countries, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high, Mexican central bank announces a rate hike of 75 basis points</p><p>The central bank of Mexico accelerated the pace of raising interest rates on Thursday after data showed that prices rose year-on-year in early June to a 21-year high. Mexico's central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. The rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted inflation targeting in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank generally tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The EU approves Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called this a historic moment and marked a crucial step for Ukraine towards the EU. European Commission President von der Leyen said that this decision not only strengthens the strength of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision of the EU summit was made at the proposal of the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's obtaining EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on official social media that Ukraine has obtained EU candidate status, saying that this is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU, and expressed his gratitude to EU leaders for their support.</p><p>3. U.S. official: The United States will provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23, local time, U.S. officials stated that the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military assistance, including the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket system, ammunition and other supplies. It is reported that the U.S. government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia that it may trigger energy market collapse</p><p>Germany warned that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe could trigger a collapse in the energy market, which was as influential as the financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest \"alert\" level, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that losses for energy suppliers are increasing day by day as they are forced to make up for lost gas at high prices, which has a negative impact on the local utility industry. There may be spillover risks for its users, including consumers and businesses. Habeck said at a press conference in Berlin, \"If the losses are too big for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Affected by sanctions against Russia, Japan's construction timber supply is difficult</p><p>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to cause chaos in the international industrial chain and supply chain, it has brought more and more impact to many countries around the world. Because of the frequent earthquakes in Japan, many buildings are made of wood, so the demand for wood is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large amounts of Russian timber, which had a great impact on the supply of Japanese timber.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will fully withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sports brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday local time that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after three months of suspension of Russian operations. The analysis pointed out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will have little substantial impact. The combined revenue from Ukraine and Russia is less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Says congressional delays threaten to shrink Ohio plant plans</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS chip bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company doesn't know exactly when there will be results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled to be held on July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that it would postpone the groundbreaking time.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers hit hard! FDA bans JUUL products from entering the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban Juul e-cigarettes from being sold or distributed in the U.S. market, with regulators saying it lacks \"sufficient evidence\" to show that the sale of the product is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he did not approve of the FDA's judgment and would exhaust regulatory and related legal options and seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion in tort damages</p><p>On Thursday, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals made a ruling to revoke the lower court's compensation in support of Centripetal's patent infringement case against Cisco. The reason is that the judge Morgan who heard the case did not take recusal measures on the premise that his wife held Cisco shares. At that time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement compensation, plus patent licensing fees, and the overall compensation would exceed $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix cuts 300 jobs as revenue growth slows</a></p><p>According to local media reports, streaming media giant Netflix recently laid off 300 employees after laying off 150 employees last month, equivalent to about 3% of the company's employees. Subsequently, the company also confirmed this matter and said that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. The U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives of seven major oil companies</p><p>According to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth largest refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>) Wilmington Refinery reported an unexpected fire on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | U.S. stocks rebounded thrillingly! Zhonggai is bright, XPeng vehicles rose nearly 8%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-24 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher; ② U.S. oil hit its lowest closing price since May; ③ Both PMI indicators in the United States fell to nearly two-year lows; ④ Bridgewater Fund doubled its bet on short European stocks to US $10.5 billion; ⑤ Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs; ⑥ The EU approved Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks collectively closed higher overnight, and most U.S. technology stocks rose</p><p>U.S. stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.64%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.95%.</p><p>U.S. tech stocks closed mostly higher, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 2.16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Down 0.43%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up 3.20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>Up 0.68%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Up 1.58%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 2.26%; The concept of economic restart has mostly weakened,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">American Airlines</a>Fell 0.92%, United Airlines fell 2.48%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>Down 1.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Fell 2.33%. In addition, Internet technology stocks, new energy vehicles, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors all rose sharply.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher, led by the new energy vehicle sector</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed higher on Thursday, led by the new energy vehicle sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 6.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>ADR rose 3.7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Up more than 2%.</p><p>For other Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Closed up 6.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 2.4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up nearly 0.8%, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell nearly 0.9%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>, Dada rose more than 6%, Wuxin Technology, the first e-cigarette stock, rose more than 5%, Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Up more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Powder sheet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Rose more than 1%, and just ended a three-game losing streak on Wednesday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Closed down nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Education fell 0.5%, NetEase<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">Youdao</a>It fell nearly 0.4%.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, the German DAX index fell 1.72%</p><p>European stocks closed, and the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. Germany's DAX index fell 1.72%, France's CAC index fell 0.56%, Britain's FTSE index fell 1%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.8% on Thursday, the lowest closing price since May 10</p><p>U.S. crude oil futures prices fell for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.92, or 1.81%, to close at $104.27 a barrel, the lowest closing price since May 10. Investors are worried that aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve could trigger a recession, which could dampen fuel demand.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.5%, closing down for the fourth consecutive day</p><p>New York gold futures prices fell for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.60, or 0.5%, to close at $1,829.80 an ounce. Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the decline in gold prices on Thursday was the strengthening of the US dollar, which was due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish monetary policy.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The use of the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hits a new record of US $2.285 trillion</p><p>The use of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase facility hit a new high on Thursday. 89 participants spent $2.285 trillion, exceeding the previous high of $2.259 trillion hit on Wednesday. The instrument pays an overnight rate of 0.80%; Its interest rates change in line with Fed policy.</p><p>2. Powell reiterates \"unconditional\" commitment to fighting inflation, saying recession is not inevitable</p><p>While Democrats warned of recession risks, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation was \"unconditional.\" Another Fed governor supports another 75 basis point interest rate hike next month. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday, Powell said, \"The overheating of our labor market is a bit unsustainable, and we are still far from the inflation target right now. We really need to restore price stability and bring inflation back to 2%, because if we don't do so, we won't achieve sustainable full employment.\" Powell reiterated that the Fed still wants a soft landing for the economy, although the process will be more difficult.</p><p>3. Fed Governor Bowman supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July</p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports a 75 basis point rate hike in July, followed by several 50 basis point rate hike. In remarks prepared for an event organized by the Massachusetts Bankers Association, Bowman said, \"Based on the current inflation data, I expect a rate hike of 75 basis points at the next meeting to be appropriate, as long as the data supports it, in the next few meetings. rate hike should be at least 50 basis points. Depending on how the economy develops, further increases in the federal funds target rate range may need to be needed afterwards.\"</p><p>4. U.S. mortgage rates rose to 5.81%, the highest level since 2008</p><p>Mortgage rates in the United States are climbing again to a 14-year high. In a statement released Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. This trend runs counter to the decline in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The previous week, the interest rate recorded its biggest weekly increase since 1987.</p><p>5. Falling U.S. corporate activity, soaring inflation causes factory orders and production to shrink</p><p>U.S. business activity took a firm step back in June, as rapidly rising inflation reduced demand for services and caused factory orders and production to shrink directly. The preliminary value of the U.S. composite output index for June released by S&P Global on Thursday slipped 2.4 points to 51.2. While still above 50, this is the second-lowest level since July 2020, when the economy was struggling to emerge from the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p>6. Is the U.S. economy in full swing? Both PMI indicators fell near two-year lows</p><p>Financial Analytics Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The latest data report released by (S&P Global) on Thursday (June 23rd) showed that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing and service industries in the United States both experienced a larger-than-expected decline in June. Specific data shows that the initial value of U.S. manufacturing PMI in June recorded 52.4, a new 23-month low, far lower than market expectations of 56 and 57 in May. The initial value of the manufacturing output index recorded 49.6, a 24-month low, far lower than last month's 55.2. The initial value of the business activity index (service PMI) in June recorded 51.6, significantly lower than market expectations of 53.5 and 53.4 in May, setting a new five-month low and falling below 52 for the third time since July 2020.</p><p>7. The U.S. Supreme Court overturns a New York gun law that will allow more people to legally hold guns</p><p>On June 23rd, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a restrictive gun law in New York in a major ruling on gun rights, which will allow more people to legally hold guns on the streets. The justices voted 6-3 to overturn a restrictive New York gun law that required people to prove they specifically need to carry firearms in order to get a license to carry them in public. The justices said the requirement violated the Second Amendment right to \"keep and bear weapons.\" It is reported that California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island all have similar laws and may be challenged by this ruling.</p><p>8. U.S. senators sent a letter to Biden saying that he should consider restricting crude oil exports</p><p>U.S. Democratic senators urged President Joe Biden to limit crude oil exports to ensure oil supplies to the United States and its allies. In a letter, Senators Jack Reed, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin and Jeanne Shaheen said the \"severe spike\" in energy prices gave reason to use this power.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">US Energy</a>Minister Jennifer Granholm is scheduled to meet with oil business executives today.</p><p>9. The U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigation Committee held its fifth public hearing on the Capitol riot</p><p>On June 23, local time, the Special Investigation Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives held its fifth public hearing on the investigation of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the special investigation committee, pointed out at the hearing that former President Trump wanted the Justice Department to \"legalize\" his election lies and put pressure on multiple officials. White House lawyer Eric Hirschman testified that Jeffrey Clark, a former senior Justice Department official, had indicated that he wanted to use Justice Department power to assist Trump's plan.</p><p>10. Omicron BA.4/5 is coming fiercely: repeated infection of the mutant strain with the strongest immune escape ability</p><p>According to data recently released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron's new mutant strains BA.4 and BA.5 are dominating the United States, accounting for 34.9% of new cases in the United States. Worryingly, research shows that BA.4/5 is by far the Novel Coronavirus variant with the strongest immune escape ability. It can reinfect and walk through the lungs. These characteristics mean that they may lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.</p><p>11. Bridgewater Fund will double its bet on shorting European stocks to US $10.5 billion</p><p>Bridgewater doubled its short bets on European stocks to $10.5 billion, nearly doubling in the past week, and its bearish strength on stocks in the region reached its highest level in two years. The world's largest hedge fund firm disclosed short bets on 28 companies, including on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0O59.UK\">Sanofi</a>And SAP's personal bets exceed $500 million.</p><p>Last week's data showed that Bridgewater has become the largest short seller in European stock markets, betting more than $5.7 billion against European stocks. The investments include a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML and a $1 billion short bet on semiconductor maker ASML, according to data compiled based on regulatory filings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOT\">Total</a>About $752 million in short bets. The number of European companies it has shorted this month has increased to 18.</p><p>12. Russia considers reducing or exempting grain export tariffs</p><p>According to the Interfax news agency, Russia may gradually switch to rubles to levy grain tariffs and consider reducing or exempting grain export tariffs.</p><p>13. ECB official Kazimir: ECB interest rates may reach 1.5%-2% within a year</p><p>Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and governor of the Slovakian central bank, said that the ECB may raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points in the next 12 months, bringing interest rates to 1.5%-2% a year from now. Kazimir expects 25 basis points in rate hike in July and then possibly 50 basis points in rate hike in September. \"It all depends on upcoming data.\" Kazimir said some eurozone countries could fall into a \"technical recession\".</p><p>14. German Chancellor Scholz: The EU must be prepared for expansion</p><p>On Thursday (June 23) local time, German Chancellor Scholz said that given that Ukraine and Moldova will obtain candidate country status, the EU should prepare for enlargement. Scholz stressed that in order for a larger alliance to work, more decisions should be adopted on the principle of majority vote instead of requiring unanimity. At present, the EU adopts the principle of unanimous adoption in key decisions, which means that all 27 EU member states have the right to veto policies that they do not approve of with one vote. Previously, due to the opposition of Hungary and other countries, the EU delayed about a month before officially launching the sixth round of sanctions against Russia.</p><p>15. Inflation reaches 21-year high, Mexican central bank announces a rate hike of 75 basis points</p><p>The central bank of Mexico accelerated the pace of raising interest rates on Thursday after data showed that prices rose year-on-year in early June to a 21-year high. Mexico's central bank raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points to 7.75%, in line with expectations of all 27 economists surveyed. The rate hike is also the largest since the bank adopted inflation targeting in 2008, and is the same as the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week. Mexico's central bank generally tends to emulate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions to avoid sudden capital outflows.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The EU approves Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries</p><p>European Council President Michel announced on the 23rd local time that the EU summit that day agreed to approve Ukraine and Moldova as EU candidate countries and Georgia as a potential candidate country. Michel called this a historic moment and marked a crucial step for Ukraine towards the EU. European Commission President von der Leyen said that this decision not only strengthens the strength of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, but also the strength of the European Union. The decision of the EU summit was made at the proposal of the European Commission on the 17th of this month.</p><p>2. Zelensky: Ukraine's obtaining EU candidate status is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU</p><p>On the 23rd local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on official social media that Ukraine has obtained EU candidate status, saying that this is a unique historical moment in Ukraine's relations with the EU, and expressed his gratitude to EU leaders for their support.</p><p>3. U.S. official: The United States will provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine</p><p>According to an Associated Press report on June 23, local time, U.S. officials stated that the United States will provide Ukraine with an additional $450 million in military assistance, including the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket system, ammunition and other supplies. It is reported that the U.S. government announced on the 15th that it would provide an additional $1 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.</p><p>4. Germany warns Russia that it may trigger energy market collapse</p><p>Germany warned that Russia's reduction of natural gas supplies to Europe could trigger a collapse in the energy market, which was as influential as the financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers. After raising Germany's natural gas risk level to the second highest \"alert\" level, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that losses for energy suppliers are increasing day by day as they are forced to make up for lost gas at high prices, which has a negative impact on the local utility industry. There may be spillover risks for its users, including consumers and businesses. Habeck said at a press conference in Berlin, \"If the losses are too big for them to bear, then the entire market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.\"</p><p>5. Affected by sanctions against Russia, Japan's construction timber supply is difficult</p><p>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to cause chaos in the international industrial chain and supply chain, it has brought more and more impact to many countries around the world. Because of the frequent earthquakes in Japan, many buildings are made of wood, so the demand for wood is very large. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan was no longer able to import large amounts of Russian timber, which had a great impact on the supply of Japanese timber.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245722181\" target=\"_blank\">Nike will fully withdraw from the Russian market</a></p><p>American sports brand Nike said in an emailed statement on Thursday local time that it will completely withdraw from the Russian market after three months of suspension of Russian operations. The analysis pointed out that for Nike, this move is largely symbolic and will have little substantial impact. The combined revenue from Ukraine and Russia is less than 1% of Nike's total revenue.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Says congressional delays threaten to shrink Ohio plant plans</p><p>In a statement sent to the media on Thursday, Intel made it clear: \"Unfortunately, the CHIPS chip bill in the U.S. Congress is progressing slowly, and the company doesn't know exactly when there will be results. Now is the time for Congress to take action so that Intel can move forward at the speed and scale long envisioned for Ohio and other projects.\"</p><p>According to local media reports, the groundbreaking ceremony for Intel's Ohio factory was originally scheduled to be held on July 22, but the company informed Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office and members of the Ohio congressional delegation on Wednesday that it would postpone the groundbreaking time.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245222074\" target=\"_blank\">E-cigarette manufacturers hit hard! FDA bans JUUL products from entering the US market</a></p><p>The U.S. FDA announced on Thursday that it will ban Juul e-cigarettes from being sold or distributed in the U.S. market, with regulators saying it lacks \"sufficient evidence\" to show that the sale of the product is appropriate for public health. Juul CEO Joe Murillo responded that he did not approve of the FDA's judgment and would exhaust regulatory and related legal options and seek ways to remain in the US market.</p><p>4. The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">Cisco</a>Adverse $2.7 billion in tort damages</p><p>On Thursday, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeals made a ruling to revoke the lower court's compensation in support of Centripetal's patent infringement case against Cisco. The reason is that the judge Morgan who heard the case did not take recusal measures on the premise that his wife held Cisco shares. At that time, Morgan ruled that Cisco should pay Centripetal $1.9 billion in infringement compensation, plus patent licensing fees, and the overall compensation would exceed $2.7 billion.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2245371220\" target=\"_blank\">Netflix cuts 300 jobs as revenue growth slows</a></p><p>According to local media reports, streaming media giant Netflix recently laid off 300 employees after laying off 150 employees last month, equivalent to about 3% of the company's employees. Subsequently, the company also confirmed this matter and said that these adjustments were made to ensure that costs matched the decline in revenue growth.</p><p>6. The U.S. Energy Secretary meets with executives of seven major oil companies</p><p>According to an announcement from the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Secretary Granholm held offline talks with CEOs and executives of seven major U.S. oil companies on Thursday and reminded these companies that they must come up with solutions to ensure safe and affordable fuel supply.</p><p>According to local media reports, Phillips 66, the fourth largest refiner in the United States (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>) Wilmington Refinery reported an unexpected fire on June 23.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"BK1587":"次新股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4555":"新能源车","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK1539":"汽车股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1588":"回港中概股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147384376","content_text":"摘要：①隔夜美股集体收高，热门中概股多数收涨；②美油创5月来最低收盘价；③美国两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位；④桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元；⑤俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税；⑥欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国。海外市场1、隔夜美股集体收高 美国科技股多数走高美股收盘，三大股指集体收涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.64%，纳指涨1.62%，标普500指数涨0.95%。美国科技股收盘多数走高，其中苹果涨2.16%、特斯拉跌0.43%、亚马逊涨3.20%、谷歌A涨0.68%、奈飞涨1.58%、微软涨2.26%；经济重启概念多数走弱，美国航空跌0.92%、联合航空跌2.48%、皇家加勒比邮轮跌1.69%、波音跌2.33%。此外，互联网科技股、新能源汽车、消费和医药板块全数大涨。2、热门中概股多数收涨 新能源车板块领涨热门中概股周四多数收涨，新能源车板块领涨，小鹏汽车涨近8%，理想汽车涨6.6%，比亚迪ADR涨3.7%，蔚来涨超2%。其他中概股方面，拼多多收涨6.4%，百度涨2.4%，京东涨近0.8%，而网易跌近0.9%。叮咚买菜涨超7%，阿里巴巴、达达涨逾6%，电子烟第一股雾芯科技涨逾5%，B站、爱奇艺涨超3%，好未来、虎牙、迅雷涨超2%，腾讯粉单、满帮、金山云、知乎涨超1%，而周三刚结束三连跌的新东方收跌近9%，斗鱼跌逾4%，高途教育跌0.5%，网易有道跌近0.4%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌德国DAX指数跌1.72%欧股收盘，三大股指全线收跌。德国DAX指数跌1.72%，法国CAC指数跌0.56%，英国富时指数跌1%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.77%。4、美国WTI原油周四收跌1.8% 创5月10日以来最低收盘价美国原油期货价格周四录得连续第二个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.92美元，跌幅为1.81%，收于每桶104.27美元，创5月10日以来的最低收盘价。投资者担心美联储激进加息可能引发经济衰退，从而抑制燃料需求。5、纽约黄金期货收跌0.5% 连续第四日收跌纽约黄金期货价格周四录得连续第四个交易日下跌。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌8.60美元，跌幅为0.5%，报收于每盎司1829.80美元。分析师指出，周四黄金价格下跌的主要原因是美元走强，而美元走强的原因是市场预期美联储可能会采取更加鹰派的货币政策。国际宏观1、美联储逆回购工具使用量创下2.285万亿美元的新纪录美联储隔夜逆回购工具的使用量周四再创新高。89个参与方动用2.285万亿美元，超过周三触及的前期高点2.259万亿美元。该工具支付隔夜利率0.80%；其利率跟随美联储政策而变化。2、鲍威尔重申“无条件”抗通胀承诺 称经济衰退并非不可避免尽管民主党人警告经济衰退风险，但美联储主席鲍威尔表示，联储抗通胀的承诺是“无条件的”。另一位美联储理事支持下个月再次升息75个基点。鲍威尔周四在众议院金融服务委员会作证时表示，“我们劳动力市场的过热有点不可持续，现在离通胀目标还很遥远。我们真的需要恢复物价稳定，让通胀率回落至2%，因为如果不这样做的话，将无法实现可持续的充分就业。”鲍威尔重申， 美联储仍然希望经济实现软着陆，尽管过程会比较艰难。3、美联储理事Bowman支持在7月加息75个基点美联储理事Michelle Bowman表示，她支持7月升息75个基点，之后再进行几次50基点的加息。Bowman在为马萨诸塞州银行家协会组织的一场活动准备的发言中说，“基于当前的通胀数据，我预计下次会议上加息75个基点是合适的，只要数据支持，在此后的几次会议上应该加息至少50个基点。根据经济的发展情况，之后可能还需要进一步提高联邦基金目标利率区间。”4、美国抵押贷款利率升至5.81% 创2008年以来最高水平美国的抵押贷款利率再次攀升，创14年来高位。房地美在周四发布的声明中称，30年期抵押贷款平均利率为5.81%，高于上周的5.78%。这个走势与10年期美债收益率的下滑背道而驰。此前一周该利率创下1987年以来最大周升幅。5、美国企业活动下降 通胀飙升导致工厂订单和生产萎缩美国企业活动6月向回落迈出了坚定一步，因快速走高的通胀降低了服务业需求，并导致工厂订单和生产径直萎缩。S&P Global周四发布的6月份美国综合产出指数初值下滑2.4点至51.2。虽然仍高于50，但这已是2020年7月以来的次低水平，当时经济正在竭力摆脱疫情引发的衰退。6、美国经济颓势尽显？两项PMI指标均跌至近两年低位附近金融分析公司标普全球（S&P Global）周四（6月23日）公布的最新数据报告显示，6月美国制造业和服务业采购经理指数（PMI）均出现了超于预期的跌幅。具体数据显示，美国6月制造业PMI初值录得52.4，刷新23个月低位，远低于市场预期的56和5月的57；制造业产出指数初值录得49.6，刷新24个月低位，远不及上月的55.2。6月商务活动指数（服务业PMI）初值录得51.6，显著低于市场预期的53.5和5月的53.4，刷新5个月低位，为2020年7月以来第三次跌至52以下。7、美国最高法院推翻纽约州一项枪支法律 将允许更多人合法持枪当地时间6月23日，美国最高法院在一项有关持枪权的重大裁决中推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，将允许更多人在街道上合法持枪。法官们以6票赞成、3票反对的结果推翻了纽约州一项限制性的枪支法律，该法律要求人们证明自己特别需要携带枪支，才能获得在公共场合携带枪支的执照。法官们表示，这一要求违反了第二修正案“持有和携带武器”的权利。据悉，美国加利福尼亚州、夏威夷、马里兰州、马萨诸塞州、新泽西州和罗得岛州都有类似的法律，可能会因这项裁决而受到挑战。8、美国参议员致函拜登 称其应当考虑限制原油出口美国民主党参议员敦促总统拜登限制原油出口，从而保障美国及其盟友的的石油供应。参议员Jack Reed、Tammy Duckworth、Tammy Baldwin和Jeanne Shaheen在一封信函中表示，能源价格“严重飙升”给使用这一权力提供了理由。美国能源部长Jennifer Granholm定于今天与石油企业高管会面。9、美国会众议院特别调查委员会就国会大厦骚乱事件举行第五场公开听证会当地时间6月23日，美国国会众议院特别调查委员会就去年1月6日国会大厦骚乱事件的调查举行第五场公开听证会。特别调查委员会主席本尼·汤普森（Bennie Thompson）在听证会上指出，前总统特朗普希望司法部将他的选举谎言“合法化”，并对多名官员进行施压。白宫律师埃里克·赫施曼作证称，前司法部高级官员杰弗里·克拉克（Jeffrey Clark）曾表示想利用司法部权力协助特朗普的计划。10、奥密克戎BA.4/5来势汹汹：免疫逃逸能力最强变异株 重复感染根据美国疾控中心（CDC）近日发布的数据，奥密克戎新变异株BA.4和BA.5正在美国占据主导，已经占据了美国新增病例的34.9%。令人担忧的是，研究显示，BA.4/5是目前为止免疫逃逸能力最强的新冠病毒变异株，可以重复感染，能走肺，这些特征意味着它们可能导致更多的住院和死亡。11、桥水基金将做空欧股押注翻倍至105亿美元桥水对欧洲股票的做空押注增加一倍，至105亿美元，在过去一周几乎翻了一番，对该地区股市的看空力度达到两年来的最高水平。根据汇编数据，这家全球最大的对冲基金公司披露了对28家公司的空头押注，其中包括对阿斯麦、道达尔、赛诺菲和思爱普的个人押注超过5亿美元。上周数据显示，桥水已成为欧洲股市的最大空头，大举押注逾57亿美元做空欧股。基于监管文件汇总的数据显示，这些投资中包括对半导体制造商阿斯麦10亿美元的空头押注以及对道达尔约7.52亿美元的空头押注。该公司本月做空的欧洲公司数量已增至18家。12、俄罗斯考虑减免粮食出口关税据国际文传电讯社，俄罗斯可能会逐步改用卢布征收粮食关税，并考虑减免粮食出口关税。13、欧洲央行官员Kazimir：欧洲央行利率可能在一年内达到1.5%-2%欧洲央行管理委员会成员，担任斯洛伐克央行行长的Peter Kazimir表示，欧洲央行可能在未来12个月内将利率提高超过200个基点，使利率从现在开始的一年后达到1.5%-2%。Kazimir预计7月加息25个基点，然后9月可能加息50个基点。“这一切都取决于即将到来的数据。”Kazimir表示，一些欧元区国家可能陷入“技术性衰退”。14、德国总理朔尔茨：欧盟必须做好扩张的准备当地时间周四（6月23日），德国总理朔尔茨表示，鉴于乌克兰和摩尔多瓦将获得候选国身份，欧盟应该为扩大做好准备。朔尔茨强调，为了让更大的联盟发挥作用，更多的决定应该采取多数表决通过的原则，而不是要求全体一致通过。目前，在关键决策上欧盟采取的是一致通过原则，这意味着欧盟27个成员国均有权一票否决自己不认可的政策。此前，由于匈牙利等国的反对，欧盟拖延了约一个月时间，才正式推出针对俄罗斯的第六轮制裁。15、通胀达到21年高位 墨西哥央行宣布加息75基点在数据显示6月初物价同比升幅达到21年高位后，墨西哥央行周四加快了升息步伐。墨西哥央行将关键利率上调75个基点至7.75%，符合接受调查的所有27位经济学家的预期。此次加息幅度也是该行2008年采用通胀目标制以来最大，并且与美联储上周的加息幅度相同。墨西哥央行通常倾向于效仿美联储的利率决定，以避免资本突然外流。俄乌局势1、欧盟批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国欧洲理事会主席米歇尔当地时间23日宣布，当天的欧盟峰会同意批准乌克兰和摩尔多瓦为欧盟候选国，格鲁吉亚为潜在候选国。米歇尔称这是一个历史性的时刻，标志着乌克兰向欧盟迈出了关键一步。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，这一决定不仅加强了乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚三国的力量，同时也加强了欧盟的实力。欧盟峰会的这项决定是应欧盟委员会本月17日的建议作出的。2、泽连斯基：乌获得欧盟候选国地位 是乌克兰与欧盟关系独一无二的历史时刻当地时间23日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基就乌克兰获得欧盟候选国地位在官方社交媒体上发文称，这是乌克兰与欧盟关系中独一无二的历史时刻，并对欧盟领导人的支持表示感谢。3、美官员：美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助据美联社当地时间6月23日报道，美国官员表示，美国将再向乌克兰提供4.5亿美元的军事援助，包括“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭系统、弹药和其他物资。据悉，美国政府曾在15日宣布向乌克兰额外提供10亿美元的军事援助。4、德国警告俄罗斯或引发能源市场崩溃德国警告说，俄罗斯削减欧洲天然气供应可能引发能源市场崩溃，影响力不亚于当年雷曼兄弟引爆金融危机。在将德国天然气风险级别上调至第二高的“警戒”水平后，经济部长Robert Habeck表示，由于被迫以高价补平损失的气量，能源供应商的亏损正在日益增加，对当地公用事业行业及其用户（包括消费者和企业）可能存在溢出风险。Habeck在柏林召开的新闻发布会上表示，“如果亏损大到以他们不能承受，那么整个市场就会在某个时刻崩塌。这是能源系统的雷曼效应。”5、受对俄制裁影响 日本建筑木材供应难由于俄乌冲突持续造成国际产业链以及供应链的混乱，给世界多国都带来越来越多的影响。日本因为地震多发，建筑很多都采用木质结构，因而对木材的需求量非常大。俄乌冲突发生后，日本无法再大量进口俄罗斯木材，这给日本木材的供应造成了很大影响。公司新闻1、耐克将全面退出俄罗斯市场美国运动品牌耐克(Nike)当地时间周四在一份电子邮件声明中称，在俄罗斯业务暂停三个月后，该品牌将全面退出俄罗斯市场。分析指出，对耐克来说，这一举措在很大程度上是象征性的，不会产生什么实质性影响。来自乌克兰和俄罗斯两国的收入加起来也不到耐克总收入的1%。2、英特尔称国会延误恐导致俄亥俄工厂计划缩水在周四发送给媒体的声明中，英特尔明确表示：“不幸的是，美国国会的CHIPS芯片法案进展缓慢，公司也不知道到底什么时候能有结果。现在是国会采取行动的时候了，这样英特尔才能以长期以来为俄亥俄州以及其他项目设想的速度和规模向前推进。”根据当地媒体报道，英特尔俄亥俄工厂的开工仪式原定于7月22日举行，但公司周三向俄亥俄州州长Mike DeWine的办公室和俄亥俄州国会代表团成员通报将会推迟破土的时间。3、电子烟制造商遭重创！FDA禁止JUUL产品进入美国市场美国FDA周四宣布，将禁止Juul电子烟在美国市场进行销售或分销，监管称“缺乏足够证据”显示该产品的销售对于公共健康是合适的。Juul首席执行官Joe Murillo回应称不认可FDA的判断，将穷尽监管和相关法律的选项，寻求继续留在美国市场的方法。4、美国上诉法院驳回对思科不利的27亿美元侵权赔偿当地时间周四，美国联邦上诉法院作出判决，撤销下级法院支持Centripetal控告思科专利侵权案的赔偿，原因是审理此案的法官摩根在明知自己妻子持有思科股票的前提下，并没有采取回避措施。当时摩根判决思科向Centripetal支付19亿美元的侵权赔偿，加上专利授权许可费，整体赔偿金将超过27亿美元。5、营收增速放缓，Netflix裁员300人据当地媒体报道，流媒体巨头奈飞继上个月裁员150人后，又在近期裁掉了300名员工，约等于整个公司3%的雇员。随后公司也确认了这一事项，并表示作出这些调整是为了确保成本与营收增速下滑相匹配。6、美国能源部长会见七大油企高管根据美国能源部的公告，周四能源部长格兰霍姆与七家美国主要油企的CEO和高管举行了线下会谈，并提醒这些企业必须拿出解决方案确保安全、可负担的燃油供应。根据当地媒体报道，美国第四大炼油商菲利普斯66公司（Phillips 66）威尔明顿炼油厂6月23日报告发生意外火灾。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"EVS.SI":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050720225,"gmtCreate":1654245393667,"gmtModify":1676535419659,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050720225","repostId":"1148598938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148598938","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1654244205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148598938?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-03 16:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market changes | Soared 16%, Okta's financial report showed its power! Tesla cuts staff, share price \"shrinks\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148598938","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股股指期货下跌，马斯克称需要“裁员约10%”，特斯拉跌超2%；Q1营收同比增65%，Okta盘前涨超16%；遭机构下调评级，美光科技盘前跌超3%。6月3日，美股股指期货下跌，道指期货跌0.11","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary: U.S. stock index futures fell, Musk said it needed to \"lay off about 10% of employees\".<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Fell more than 2%; Q1 revenue increased by 65% year-on-year, and Okta rose by more than 16% before the market; Downgraded by the agency,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell more than 3% before the market.</b>On June 3, U.S. stock index futures fell, with Dow futures falling 0.11%, Nasdaq futures falling 0.55%, and S&P 500 falling 0.26%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04ea08aca61c736c0cc95774a9218c8\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Okta rose more than 16% before the market. Q1 revenue in fiscal year 2023 increased by 65% year-on-year to US $414.9 million, exceeding expectations, and raised its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2023.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It rose 2.6% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>A delisting application has been filed with the SEC.</p><p>Lululemon rose more than 2% before the market. In fiscal year 2023, Q1 revenue and net profit both increased by about 30% compared with the same period last year, and Q2 revenue guidance was also better than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSS\">Kohl's Department Store</a>It rose nearly 5% before the market. According to people familiar with the matter, Kohl's Department Store received two acquisition proposals. Among them, private equity Sycamore Partners offered $50 per share and retail holding company Franchise Group offered $60 per share. Kohl's board of directors is expected to review these acquisition offers in the next few days, and it may take several weeks if the deal is finally reached.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell more than 2% before the market. Musk said in an internal letter that the company needs to lay off about 10% of its employees and suspend recruitment worldwide.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, after Piper Sandler would<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>The rating was downgraded to underweight and the target price was lowered by $70.</p><p>CrowdStrike fell nearly 3% before the market, and its loss per share in Q1 of fiscal year 2023 was US $0.14, which was worse than market expectations. After the results, many major banks lowered their target prices.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market changes | Soared 16%, Okta's financial report showed its power! Tesla cuts staff, share price \"shrinks\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market changes | Soared 16%, Okta's financial report showed its power! Tesla cuts staff, share price \"shrinks\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-03 16:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary: U.S. stock index futures fell, Musk said it needed to \"lay off about 10% of employees\".<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Fell more than 2%; Q1 revenue increased by 65% year-on-year, and Okta rose by more than 16% before the market; Downgraded by the agency,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell more than 3% before the market.</b>On June 3, U.S. stock index futures fell, with Dow futures falling 0.11%, Nasdaq futures falling 0.55%, and S&P 500 falling 0.26%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d04ea08aca61c736c0cc95774a9218c8\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Okta rose more than 16% before the market. Q1 revenue in fiscal year 2023 increased by 65% year-on-year to US $414.9 million, exceeding expectations, and raised its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2023.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It rose 2.6% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>A delisting application has been filed with the SEC.</p><p>Lululemon rose more than 2% before the market. In fiscal year 2023, Q1 revenue and net profit both increased by about 30% compared with the same period last year, and Q2 revenue guidance was also better than market expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSS\">Kohl's Department Store</a>It rose nearly 5% before the market. According to people familiar with the matter, Kohl's Department Store received two acquisition proposals. Among them, private equity Sycamore Partners offered $50 per share and retail holding company Franchise Group offered $60 per share. Kohl's board of directors is expected to review these acquisition offers in the next few days, and it may take several weeks if the deal is finally reached.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell more than 2% before the market. Musk said in an internal letter that the company needs to lay off about 10% of its employees and suspend recruitment worldwide.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, after Piper Sandler would<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>The rating was downgraded to underweight and the target price was lowered by $70.</p><p>CrowdStrike fell nearly 3% before the market, and its loss per share in Q1 of fiscal year 2023 was US $0.14, which was worse than market expectations. After the results, many major banks lowered their target prices.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ed81b1e72df2f2f0f21497fe08eaed","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LULU":"lululemon athletica","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4574":"无人驾驶","TSLA":"特斯拉",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","OKTA":"Okta Inc.","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148598938","content_text":"摘要：美股股指期货下跌，马斯克称需要“裁员约10%”，特斯拉跌超2%；Q1营收同比增65%，Okta盘前涨超16%；遭机构下调评级，美光科技盘前跌超3%。6月3日，美股股指期货下跌，道指期货跌0.11%，纳指期货跌0.55%，标普500指数跌0.26%。Okta盘前涨超16%，2023财年Q1营收同比增65%至4.149亿美元超预期，并上调2023财年营收指引。滴滴盘前涨2.6%，滴滴已向美国证交会提交退市申请表。Lululemon盘前涨超2%，2023财年Q1营收、净利润均较去年同期增长约30%，Q2营收指引亦好于市场预期。科尔士百货盘前涨近5%，据知情人士透露，柯尔百货收到了2项收购提议，其中，私募股权Sycamore Partners的收购报价为每股50美元，零售控股公司Franchise Group的收购报价为每股60美元。柯尔百货董事会预计将在未来几天审查这些收购要约，若交易最终达成可能还需要数周时间。特斯拉盘前跌超2%，马斯克在内部信中表示，公司需要裁减大约10%的员工并暂停全球范围内的招聘。美光科技盘前跌超3%，此前Piper Sandler将美光科技评级下调至低配，目标价下调70美元。CrowdStrike盘前跌近3%，2023财年Q1每股亏损0.14美元差于市场预期，绩后遭多家大行下调目标价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"OKTA":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"LULU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013143276,"gmtCreate":1648693830686,"gmtModify":1676534381346,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013143276","repostId":"1189414345","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189414345","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648690323,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189414345?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-31 09:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Are companies included in the delisting risk list by the SEC delisting? SFC Response","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189414345","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月31日讯，证监会国际部负责人答记者时问表示，我们注意到近日美国SEC主席接受媒体电视采访时就双方审计监管合作的表态。正如根斯勒先生所言，双方监管部门进行了深思熟虑、相互尊重和富有成效的对话。自去年","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 31, the person in charge of the International Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in response to a reporter's question that we have noticed the recent statement made by the chairman of the US SEC on the audit supervision cooperation between the two parties in a TV interview with the media. As Mr. Gensler said, the regulatory authorities of both sides had a thoughtful, respectful and productive dialogue. Since August last year, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Yi Huiman and Chairman Gensler have held three video conferences to discuss and solve the remaining problems in Sino-US audit supervision cooperation. China has held several rounds of frank, professional and efficient talks with the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) of the United States, and the communication between the two sides will continue. Both sides are willing to resolve differences and problems, and the final result depends on the wisdom and initial intention of both sides.</p><p>In addition, for some companies that have been included in the list of delisting risks by the SEC, we learned from the US SEC that this is a normal procedure for the US regulatory authorities to implement the Foreign Companies Accountability Act. Whether the listed companies will actually delist in the next two years ultimately depends on the progress and results of Sino-US audit supervision cooperation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d472113c9df8a2655ac1030a586836\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are companies included in the delisting risk list by the SEC delisting? SFC Response</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre companies included in the delisting risk list by the SEC delisting? SFC Response\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-31 09:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 31, the person in charge of the International Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in response to a reporter's question that we have noticed the recent statement made by the chairman of the US SEC on the audit supervision cooperation between the two parties in a TV interview with the media. As Mr. Gensler said, the regulatory authorities of both sides had a thoughtful, respectful and productive dialogue. Since August last year, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Yi Huiman and Chairman Gensler have held three video conferences to discuss and solve the remaining problems in Sino-US audit supervision cooperation. China has held several rounds of frank, professional and efficient talks with the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) of the United States, and the communication between the two sides will continue. Both sides are willing to resolve differences and problems, and the final result depends on the wisdom and initial intention of both sides.</p><p>In addition, for some companies that have been included in the list of delisting risks by the SEC, we learned from the US SEC that this is a normal procedure for the US regulatory authorities to implement the Foreign Companies Accountability Act. Whether the listed companies will actually delist in the next two years ultimately depends on the progress and results of Sino-US audit supervision cooperation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d472113c9df8a2655ac1030a586836\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b45ea8bb6e8a9c6428f1a279df367be","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189414345","content_text":"3月31日讯，证监会国际部负责人答记者时问表示，我们注意到近日美国SEC主席接受媒体电视采访时就双方审计监管合作的表态。正如根斯勒先生所言，双方监管部门进行了深思熟虑、相互尊重和富有成效的对话。自去年8月以来，中国证监会主席易会满和根斯勒主席已三次召开视频会议，商讨解决中美审计监管合作中的遗留问题。中方与美国公众公司会计监督委员会(PCAOB)更是进行了多轮坦诚、专业和高效的会谈，双方的沟通还将继续。双方都有意愿解决分歧和问题，最终结果如何，要看双方的智慧和初心。此外，对于一些企业被SEC列入有退市风险的清单，经向美国SEC了解，这是美国监管部门执行《外国公司问责法》的一个正常程序，列入清单的公司是否在未来两年真正退市，最终取决于中美审计监管合作的进展与结果。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0,"HSTECH":0,".SPX":0,"HSI":0,".DJI":0,"HSCCI":0,"HSCEI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035239065,"gmtCreate":1647603966803,"gmtModify":1676534249804,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035239065","repostId":"1178904005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178904005","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1647602928,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178904005?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-18 19:28","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The boss shouted: \"The oil price is $200 at the end of this year!\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178904005","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年迄今为止，原油价格的表现令市场惊叹。而面对一度逼近140美元的原油价格，现在有人喊出了更惊人的“预言”。对冲基金Andurand Capital Management的创始人、明星基金经理Pier","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The performance of crude oil prices so far this year has amazed the market. In the face of the crude oil price that once approached US $140, someone has now shouted out a more amazing \"prediction\".</p><p>Pierre Andurand, founder of hedge fund Andurand Capital Management and star fund manager, pointed out that since the increase in global crude oil supply cannot make up for the losses caused by the Russian crude oil embargo, oil prices will reach US $200 by the end of this year.</p><p>He himself has always been a well-known bull in the oil market. He once accurately predicted the surge in oil prices in 2008 and the epic plunge in 2020 and made huge profits from it.</p><p><b>01. The legend of the crude oil market</b></p><p>According to Reuters, Andurand became a legend in the crude oil market in 2008 with its perfect performance.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, he accurately expected crude oil to rise to a record $147 a barrel in July of that year, and then lowered his position in the then-managed BlueGold fund (oil prices fell to $33 in December), which<b>In that year, it gained more than 209% of the revenue.</b></p><p>According to the analysis of the British \"Financial Times\", in 2020, he also changed his bullish style and accurately predicted that oil prices would turn negative and get huge returns that year. An Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund he manages, was<b>It gained 154% of the revenue that year.</b></p><p>By 2022, Andurand will still achieve dazzling results.</p><p>The Financial Times quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that this commodity free trading enhancement fund is heavily betting that oil prices may rise.<b>More than 109% of the revenue in the year ending March this year</b>。</p><p><b>02. Why do oil prices still rise sharply?</b></p><p>Regarding the future trend of oil prices, Andurand said on Bloomberg that even if the Russia-Ukraine dispute is eased, Russian crude oil may withdraw from the market.</p><p>Andurand said about this:</p><p>I don't think they suddenly stop fighting and (Russian) oil comes back. Not so, (Russian) oil will be gone forever...... we will have to put up with higher prices to curb demand, let it be seen more as a luxury, and accelerate the energy transition. Andurand estimates that due to the Russia-Ukraine dispute and the subsequent embargo imposed by Western countries on Russian crude oil,<b>There will be 4 million barrels of crude oil out of the market every day.</b>Although the release of strategic reserve crude oil may help increase supply in the short term,<b>The crude oil industry may not be able to add new capacity to fully offset lost Russian crude.</b></p><p>Andurand concludes that tighter supplies of commodities \"will actually limit the types of economic goals we can achieve\":</p><p>A lot of people just assume that in their economic model, we can have goods as much as we want, thinking that it's just a matter of demand. But no, this time it will be supply constraints. He elaborated on this on the show, and with supplies so tight,<b>Spot prices soar, and some market participants may also struggle to deliver physical crude</b>, he said:</p><p>As an example, let's say that during the pandemic, crude oil demand suddenly plummeted by 20% overnight, and we built up large inventories in a short period of time. But the market's infrastructure is not built to withstand the (extreme) event of losing 20% of global demand overnight. Therefore, in the face of sluggish demand, it takes a month and a half for vacant crude oil storage tanks to be filled. So by April 2020, when all storage tanks are full, if there is still crude oil production that needs to be transferred (stored), no one can buy this crude oil, so oil prices may fall. As you said, we're in the opposite situation, inventories are very low, and there are parts of the world that are delivering certain contracts, such as WTI in the Cushing area of Oklahoma. But the tanks there are empty, and there will be no more crude oil. If someone goes long futures and tries to receive oil at that place and at that point in time, then there is no one to deliver and the oil price can go anywhere. So, more often than not, the so-called speculators are in the middle to help the price move sufficiently that we're never in a situation where the tank is full or the tank is empty. So that means,<b>(If) prices don't rise fast enough and for long enough to bring in more supply or reduce more actual demand before inventories run out.</b>And that's where people sometimes wonder, do you know what the role of speculators is? It's actually price discovery, sending the right signal to producers and consumers so as not to run out of storage capacity or not to run out of inventory because then prices can go anywhere......<b>03. He expects oil prices to reach $200</b></p><p>Finally, Andurand expects oil prices to reach the $200 level, and we will start to see the destruction of actual demand and the potential balance of the market.</p><p>I think crude oil will be close to $200 a barrel, which will be much higher than it is today. I feel that $110 per barrel doesn't destroy demand, we have to go up significantly to make demand drop enough, but that also assumes no government mandate and some kind of restriction (premise). Let's say two days a month, we don't do anything, and there are two days of lockdown each month. I think, there may be some solution to bring demand down, but if there is no government mandate, then I think about $200 oil will be enough to bring demand (down) to balance the market. Although $200 may seem out of reach, Bloomberg pointed out that some insiders also pointed out its possibility.</p><p>In January, commodities trader Doug King said the price of a barrel of crude could reach that level within five years. Nigeria's oil minister also said it could reach such a high level before oil prices fall back to the $150 range.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The boss shouted: \"The oil price is $200 at the end of this year!\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe boss shouted: \"The oil price is $200 at the end of this year!\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-18 19:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The performance of crude oil prices so far this year has amazed the market. In the face of the crude oil price that once approached US $140, someone has now shouted out a more amazing \"prediction\".</p><p>Pierre Andurand, founder of hedge fund Andurand Capital Management and star fund manager, pointed out that since the increase in global crude oil supply cannot make up for the losses caused by the Russian crude oil embargo, oil prices will reach US $200 by the end of this year.</p><p>He himself has always been a well-known bull in the oil market. He once accurately predicted the surge in oil prices in 2008 and the epic plunge in 2020 and made huge profits from it.</p><p><b>01. The legend of the crude oil market</b></p><p>According to Reuters, Andurand became a legend in the crude oil market in 2008 with its perfect performance.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, he accurately expected crude oil to rise to a record $147 a barrel in July of that year, and then lowered his position in the then-managed BlueGold fund (oil prices fell to $33 in December), which<b>In that year, it gained more than 209% of the revenue.</b></p><p>According to the analysis of the British \"Financial Times\", in 2020, he also changed his bullish style and accurately predicted that oil prices would turn negative and get huge returns that year. An Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund he manages, was<b>It gained 154% of the revenue that year.</b></p><p>By 2022, Andurand will still achieve dazzling results.</p><p>The Financial Times quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that this commodity free trading enhancement fund is heavily betting that oil prices may rise.<b>More than 109% of the revenue in the year ending March this year</b>。</p><p><b>02. Why do oil prices still rise sharply?</b></p><p>Regarding the future trend of oil prices, Andurand said on Bloomberg that even if the Russia-Ukraine dispute is eased, Russian crude oil may withdraw from the market.</p><p>Andurand said about this:</p><p>I don't think they suddenly stop fighting and (Russian) oil comes back. Not so, (Russian) oil will be gone forever...... we will have to put up with higher prices to curb demand, let it be seen more as a luxury, and accelerate the energy transition. Andurand estimates that due to the Russia-Ukraine dispute and the subsequent embargo imposed by Western countries on Russian crude oil,<b>There will be 4 million barrels of crude oil out of the market every day.</b>Although the release of strategic reserve crude oil may help increase supply in the short term,<b>The crude oil industry may not be able to add new capacity to fully offset lost Russian crude.</b></p><p>Andurand concludes that tighter supplies of commodities \"will actually limit the types of economic goals we can achieve\":</p><p>A lot of people just assume that in their economic model, we can have goods as much as we want, thinking that it's just a matter of demand. But no, this time it will be supply constraints. He elaborated on this on the show, and with supplies so tight,<b>Spot prices soar, and some market participants may also struggle to deliver physical crude</b>, he said:</p><p>As an example, let's say that during the pandemic, crude oil demand suddenly plummeted by 20% overnight, and we built up large inventories in a short period of time. But the market's infrastructure is not built to withstand the (extreme) event of losing 20% of global demand overnight. Therefore, in the face of sluggish demand, it takes a month and a half for vacant crude oil storage tanks to be filled. So by April 2020, when all storage tanks are full, if there is still crude oil production that needs to be transferred (stored), no one can buy this crude oil, so oil prices may fall. As you said, we're in the opposite situation, inventories are very low, and there are parts of the world that are delivering certain contracts, such as WTI in the Cushing area of Oklahoma. But the tanks there are empty, and there will be no more crude oil. If someone goes long futures and tries to receive oil at that place and at that point in time, then there is no one to deliver and the oil price can go anywhere. So, more often than not, the so-called speculators are in the middle to help the price move sufficiently that we're never in a situation where the tank is full or the tank is empty. So that means,<b>(If) prices don't rise fast enough and for long enough to bring in more supply or reduce more actual demand before inventories run out.</b>And that's where people sometimes wonder, do you know what the role of speculators is? It's actually price discovery, sending the right signal to producers and consumers so as not to run out of storage capacity or not to run out of inventory because then prices can go anywhere......<b>03. He expects oil prices to reach $200</b></p><p>Finally, Andurand expects oil prices to reach the $200 level, and we will start to see the destruction of actual demand and the potential balance of the market.</p><p>I think crude oil will be close to $200 a barrel, which will be much higher than it is today. I feel that $110 per barrel doesn't destroy demand, we have to go up significantly to make demand drop enough, but that also assumes no government mandate and some kind of restriction (premise). Let's say two days a month, we don't do anything, and there are two days of lockdown each month. I think, there may be some solution to bring demand down, but if there is no government mandate, then I think about $200 oil will be enough to bring demand (down) to balance the market. Although $200 may seem out of reach, Bloomberg pointed out that some insiders also pointed out its possibility.</p><p>In January, commodities trader Doug King said the price of a barrel of crude could reach that level within five years. Nigeria's oil minister also said it could reach such a high level before oil prices fall back to the $150 range.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d60a2dcd6ade78c11696b80e541ad68","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178904005","content_text":"今年迄今为止，原油价格的表现令市场惊叹。而面对一度逼近140美元的原油价格，现在有人喊出了更惊人的“预言”。对冲基金Andurand Capital Management的创始人、明星基金经理Pierre Andurand指出，由于全球原油供给的增加难以弥补俄罗斯原油禁运所带来的损失，所以到今年年底油价将达到200美元。他本人一直是石油市场上的著名多头，曾因准确预判2008油价暴涨和2020年史诗级暴跌并从中狂赚。01、原油市场的传说据路透社报道，Andurand在2008年凭借完美表现成为原油市场的传说。据知情人士透露，他准确预计原油在当年7月将升至创纪录的每桶147美元，随后降低了当时管理的BlueGold基金的仓位（油价在12月跌至33美元），该基金在当年斩获超209%的收益。英国《金融时报》分析称，之后在2020年，他还一改多头作风，曾准确预测油价将转为负值并在当年获得巨额回报。他管理的一只商品自由交易增强基金（Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund）在当年斩获154%的收益。到了2022年，Andurand依旧成绩耀眼。英国《金融时报》援引知情人士透露，这只商品自由交易增强基金重押油价或将上涨，在截止今年3月的一年中斩获超109%的收益。02、为何油价还会大涨？关于未来油价走势，Andurand在彭博社节目上称，即使俄乌争端得以缓解，俄罗斯原油也可能会退出市场。Andurand对此表示：我不认为他们突然停止纷争，（俄罗斯）石油就又回来了。事实并非如此，（俄罗斯）石油将永远消失......我们将不得不忍受以更高的价格来抑制需求，让它更多地被视为一种奢侈品，并加速能源转型。Andurand估计，由于俄乌争端以及随后西方国家对俄罗斯原油实施禁运，每天会有400万桶原油无法进入市场。虽然释放战略储备原油可能有助于在短期内增加供给，但是原油行业可能无法新增产能来完全抵消损失的俄罗斯原油。Andurand总结认为，大宗商品供给趋紧“实际上会限制我们能够实现的经济目标的类型”：很多人只是假设，在他们的经济模型中，我们可以随心所欲地拥有商品，认为只是需求问题。但不，这一次将是供给限制。他在节目中对此进行了详细阐述，在供应如此紧张的情况下，现货价格飙升，一些市场参与者也可能难以交付实物原油，他对此表示：举个例子，假设在疫情大流行时期，原油需求在一夜之间突然暴跌20%，我们在短时间内建立了大量库存。但是，市场的基础设施并不是为了抵御在一夜之间失去全球20%需求的（极端）事件而建造的。因此面对低迷需求，空置的原油储罐在装满之前需要一个半月时间。所以到2020年4月，当所有储罐都装满时，如果还有原油生产需要转移（储存）的话，没有人能买到这些原油，这样油价就可能下跌。正如你所说，我们处于相反的情况下，库存非常低，并且世界上有些地方在交付某些合同，例如俄克拉荷马州库欣地区的WTI。但那里的油罐都是空的，并且不再会有原油了。如果有人做多期货并试图在那个地方和那个时间点接收石油，那么没有人可以交付，油价可以到任何位置。因此，通常情况下，所谓的投机者处于中间位置，以帮助价格出现充分波动，使得我们永远不会处于油罐已满或油罐为空的情况。所以这意味着，（如果）价格上涨的速度不够快，时间也不够长，就无法在库存耗尽之前带来更多的供应或减少更多的实际需求。这就是人们有时想知道的地方，你知道投机者的作用是什么吗？实际上是价格发现，向生产者和消费者发出正确的信号，以便不耗尽存储容量或不耗尽库存，因为那样价格可以到任何位置......03、他预计油价将达到200美元最后，Andurand预计油价将达到200美元的水平，并且我们会开始看到实际需求的破坏以及市场的潜在平衡。我认为，原油将接近每桶200美元，会比今天高得多。我觉得每桶110美元并没有破坏需求，我们必须大幅上涨才能使需求下降得足够多，但这也是假设没有政府授权和某种限制的（前提）。假设一个月两天，我们什么都不做，每个月有两天的禁闭期。我认为，可能会有一些解决方案来降低需求，但如果没有政府授权，那么我认为大约200美元的石油将足以带来需求（降低）以平衡市场。虽然200美元看起来似乎遥不可及，但是彭博社指出，也有业内人士指出了它的可能性。1月份，大宗商品交易员Doug King表示，每桶原油的价格可能会在五年内达到这一水平。 尼日利亚石油部长也表示，在油价回落至150美元区间之前，它可能会达到如此高的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039057118,"gmtCreate":1645850982125,"gmtModify":1676534070723,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039057118","repostId":"1149327405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149327405","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645845463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149327405?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-26 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market News: The United States seriously considers banning Russia from using SWIFT","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149327405","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"欧洲盟友对这一想法态度积极。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to people familiar with the matter,<b>The U.S. is seriously considering whether to seek to expel Russia from SWIFT amid positive attitude from its European allies to the idea of imposing punishment</b>, and just a few days ago, this idea seemed unlikely.</p><p>Biden administration officials are currently discussing whether to push the European Union to issue a directive banning Russia from using SWIFT, but the United States and the European Union will not make an immediate decision. Officials are discussing the matter with the Fed, two people familiar with the matter said. The Federal Reserve is one of SWIFT's regulators.</p><p>Another person said negotiations with the European Commission have begun.</p><p>[Related reading]<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1108697102\" target=\"_blank\">Why is SWIFT, which threatens to remove Russia, so awesome?</a></p><p>What is SWIFT?</p><p>Since the 1950s, with the increasingly close combination of finance and computer science and technology, bank cards have been rapidly popularized all over the world, and have become the main carrier medium of bank information such as accounts of individuals, enterprises and financial institutions.</p><p>On this basis, the United States, Japan and other countries with developed finance and advanced technology have successively developed their own independent payment card system and financial information exchange system, and formed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MA\">MasterCard</a>Visa,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, JCB Credit Card and Diners Group, gradually gained a monopoly position in the global international financial field. However, due to differences in standards among different groups,<b>\"How to communicate cross-border payments\"</b>It has become the biggest headache for financial institutions in different countries.</p><p>In May 1973, the five major groups led 239 banks from 15 countries to jointly establish the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT).</p><p>as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBOC\">International banks</a>A non-profit organization that spontaneously cooperates with peers, SWIFT has a footprint almost all over the world, and almost all important financial institutions in the world are members of this institution.<b>Created the most popular, safe and convenient exchange system in the world</b>。 At present, the organization is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium, and has set up three exchange centers in Amsterdam, new york and Switzerland respectively.<b>It is the information, data, transactions and clearing among international banking peers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUBG\">hub</a>The center.</b></p><p><b>In short, SWIFT is currently a major channel for the transmission of financial information among international financial institutions.</b></p><p>Within the SWIFT system, member banks communicate with each other accurately and efficiently through telegrams. SWIFT messages distinguish different financial institutions with different codes. Generally speaking, SWIFT codes are composed of 8 to 11 English letters and Arabic numerals. For ordinary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>, if there is a need for cross-border remittance, you can intuitively feel the role of SWIFT code.</p><p>At present, the global cross-border payment system is mainly centered on SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) and CHIPS (New York Clearing House Interbank Payment System).</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market News: The United States seriously considers banning Russia from using SWIFT</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket News: The United States seriously considers banning Russia from using SWIFT\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-26 11:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to people familiar with the matter,<b>The U.S. is seriously considering whether to seek to expel Russia from SWIFT amid positive attitude from its European allies to the idea of imposing punishment</b>, and just a few days ago, this idea seemed unlikely.</p><p>Biden administration officials are currently discussing whether to push the European Union to issue a directive banning Russia from using SWIFT, but the United States and the European Union will not make an immediate decision. Officials are discussing the matter with the Fed, two people familiar with the matter said. The Federal Reserve is one of SWIFT's regulators.</p><p>Another person said negotiations with the European Commission have begun.</p><p>[Related reading]<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1108697102\" target=\"_blank\">Why is SWIFT, which threatens to remove Russia, so awesome?</a></p><p>What is SWIFT?</p><p>Since the 1950s, with the increasingly close combination of finance and computer science and technology, bank cards have been rapidly popularized all over the world, and have become the main carrier medium of bank information such as accounts of individuals, enterprises and financial institutions.</p><p>On this basis, the United States, Japan and other countries with developed finance and advanced technology have successively developed their own independent payment card system and financial information exchange system, and formed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MA\">MasterCard</a>Visa,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>, JCB Credit Card and Diners Group, gradually gained a monopoly position in the global international financial field. However, due to differences in standards among different groups,<b>\"How to communicate cross-border payments\"</b>It has become the biggest headache for financial institutions in different countries.</p><p>In May 1973, the five major groups led 239 banks from 15 countries to jointly establish the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT).</p><p>as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBOC\">International banks</a>A non-profit organization that spontaneously cooperates with peers, SWIFT has a footprint almost all over the world, and almost all important financial institutions in the world are members of this institution.<b>Created the most popular, safe and convenient exchange system in the world</b>。 At present, the organization is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium, and has set up three exchange centers in Amsterdam, new york and Switzerland respectively.<b>It is the information, data, transactions and clearing among international banking peers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUBG\">hub</a>The center.</b></p><p><b>In short, SWIFT is currently a major channel for the transmission of financial information among international financial institutions.</b></p><p>Within the SWIFT system, member banks communicate with each other accurately and efficiently through telegrams. SWIFT messages distinguish different financial institutions with different codes. Generally speaking, SWIFT codes are composed of 8 to 11 English letters and Arabic numerals. For ordinary<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>, if there is a need for cross-border remittance, you can intuitively feel the role of SWIFT code.</p><p>At present, the global cross-border payment system is mainly centered on SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) and CHIPS (New York Clearing House Interbank Payment System).</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c172387f819e918626bfcb739830b8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149327405","content_text":"据知情人士透露，美国正在认真考虑是否寻求将俄罗斯驱逐出SWIFT，原因是其欧洲盟友对实施惩罚的想法态度积极，而就在几天前，这一想法似乎还不太可能。拜登政府官员目前正在讨论是否要推动欧盟下达一项禁止俄罗斯使用SWIFT的指令，不过美国和欧盟不会马上做出决定。两位知情人士说，官员们正在与美联储讨论此事。美联储是SWIFT的监管机构之一。另一位人士说，与欧盟委员会的谈判已经开始。【相关阅读】威胁把俄罗斯除名的SWIFT，凭啥这么牛？什么是SWIFT？上世纪50年代以来，随着金融与计算机等科学技术结合的越来越密切，银行卡在全球范围内得到迅速普及，成为个人、企业、金融机构的账户等银行信息的主要承载介质。在此基础上，金融发达且技术先进的美国、日本等国家先后开发了本国独立的支付卡系统、金融信息交换系统，并形成了万事达、维萨、美国运通、JCB信用卡和大莱五大集团，逐渐在全球国际金融领域掌握了垄断地位。不过，由于不同集团间的标准存在差异，“如何沟通跨境支付”便成了不同国家金融机构最为头痛的问题。1973年5月，五大集团带领来自15个国家的239家银行齐聚一堂，共同成立了环球同业银行金融电讯协会（SWIFT）。作为国际银行间同业自发合作的非营利组织，SWIFT的足迹几乎遍布全球，全世界几乎所有重要的金融机构都是该机构的成员，打造出了当下国际最普及、最安全、最便捷的汇兑体系。目前，该组织总部设立在比利时的布鲁塞尔，同时在阿姆斯特丹、纽约和瑞士分别设立了三个交换中心，是国际银行业同业间的信息、数据、交易和清算的枢纽中心。简而言之，SWIFT就是目前国际金融机构间传递金融信息的一个主要渠道。在SWIFT系统内，各会员银行间通过电文，准确、高效地相互联系。SWIFT电文以不同代码区分不同金融机构，通常来说，SWIFT代码由由8 ～ 11 位英文字母和阿拉伯数字组成。对于普通老百姓，如果有跨境汇款的需要，就能很直观地感受到SWIFT代码的作用。当前，全球跨境支付系统主要以SWIFT（环球同业银行金融电讯协会）和CHIPS（纽约清算所银行同业支付系统）为核心。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030628187,"gmtCreate":1645713293649,"gmtModify":1676534056417,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030628187","repostId":"1120561496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120561496","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济-金融-投资","home_visible":1,"media_name":"李迅雷金融与投资","id":"71","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1"},"pubTimestamp":1645682466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120561496?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-24 14:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Russia-Ukraine crisis shakes the global market! What are the odds of winning a contrarian investment strategy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120561496","media":"李迅雷金融与投资","summary":"引  言俄乌危机演绎：“行到水穷处，坐看云起时”。近期，俄罗斯总统普京宣布承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国并宣布驻军、发表强硬演讲，同时，美国宣布美军防御准备状态已升至3级（与古巴导弹危机同","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction</b></p><p><b>Interpretation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: \"Walk to a poor place, sit and watch the clouds rise.\"</b>Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, announced the garrison of troops and delivered a tough speech. At the same time, the United States announced that the defense readiness of the US military has been upgraded to level 3 (the same level as the Cuban Missile Crisis), and began to impose financial sanctions on Russia. Affected by this risk event, the global market fluctuated greatly: the price of crude oil once jumped to nearly US $100/barrel, the stock indexes of major global capital markets such as Europe and the United States generally fell by about 2%, and the Russian MOEX index at the center of the event fell by nearly 10% for two consecutive days.</p><p><b>The core reason why the Russia-Ukraine crisis has triggered such great fluctuations in the global market lies in two concerns of global investors: 1) The market is worried about the risk of war between Russia and Ukraine in the future; 2) The market is worried that Putin's move will trigger unprecedented severe sanctions from the United States and Europe, such as removing Russian crude oil from the global crude oil supply system, which will change the supply and demand of crude oil and other commodities and aggravate global inflation.</b></p><p>But we believe that investors do not need to panic at this time. The climax of the Russia-Ukraine crisis may also mean that it is about to \"end\". Regardless of the Russia-Ukraine crisis itself, the two major risks that the market is worried about-the risk of war and the risk of strong Russian energy sanctions, there is a high probability that it will not happen; Or in all previous \"close-to-war\" crises, the historical law that the \"contrarian investment strategy\" at the most panicked moment has the highest rate of return may indicate that risky assets represented by stocks have a high probability of \"bottoming out\" in stages, while Crude oil prices may have a high probability of \"peaking\" in stages.</p><p>We will analyze the game strategies and \"equilibrium points\" of interests of all parties in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, the rules of return of the \"contrarian investment\" strategy in the four \"close-to-war\" great power games in history, and this \"contrarian investment\" The above viewpoint is elaborated from multiple dimensions such as the logic of the game between great powers behind the effectiveness of the \"investment\" strategy.</p><p><b>1. The \"big chess game\" between Russia and Ukraine: What are the players at the chess table thinking?</b></p><p><b>1. Russia: Maintaining the \"status quo\" of the Minsk Agreement and enhancing Putin's domestic \"prestige\"</b></p><p>The reason for the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis dates back to the political turmoil in Ukraine in 2014. While Putin marched into Crimea, he supported the de facto independence of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, where ethnic Russians are majority.<b>In fact, the above-mentioned areas have been controlled by Russian armed forces since 2014. However, in the past few years, Russia has never publicly acknowledged that these areas are controlled by Russia, but claimed that they were the work of local \"pro-Russian militias\".</b>In 2015, under the coordination of the West, Ukraine was also forced to sign the Minsk Agreement, which de facto recognized the independent status of eastern Ukraine (including: the withdrawal of Ukrainian government forces from the region and the agreement to local autonomy)</p><p>Since Ukraine's political situation gradually stabilized in 2015, out of considerations for Ukraine's own national interests, it has continuously demanded revisions to the Minsk Agreement. At the same time, it has continuously tried to move closer to NATO politically and continuously attacked the above two regions of eastern Ukraine militarily. local armed forces and made a certain degree of progress. This is constantly troubling the domestic support rate of Russia and Putin.</p><p>Therefore, in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, although Putin has given ambitious goals such as \"NATO stops its eastward expansion, returns its deployment to before 1997, and abandons any military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia\", its real<b>\"Bottom Line Proposition\"</b>Or is still:<b>The \"status quo\" that prevents Ukrainian membership in NATO and preserves the de facto independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.</b>Russia originally hoped to use diplomatic channels with the United States and Europe to force Ukraine to continue to accept the \"status quo\" under the Minsk Agreement. After diplomatic efforts failed, it could deter Ukraine from taking further action by publicly recognizing the independence of these two regions and the existence of Russian armed forces.</p><p><b>For Putin, his more important purpose is to enhance his prestige at home:</b>In recent years, with the downturn of Russia's economy, its official statistical support rate in 2020 has dropped by 20% from its historical high. At the same time, opposition * such as Narvani in Russia have also had an impact on it. Behind Putin's seemingly tough speech on Ukraine, he attributed the root cause of the Ukrainian issue to \"the wrong practice of the former Soviet Union\" and \"NATO's treachery\". Its purpose was also to attack his domestic \"left\" and \"right\" political opponents.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1fbaf24361f00995ae97410246f652\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is precisely because of Putin's basic political goal of enhancing domestic prestige and the objective reality that Russia's strength is obviously inferior to that of the Western camp that it may deter the West and boost domestic morale by creating tension.<b>But will do everything possible to avoid a real war that breaks through the \"bottom line\" of the West and has a fatal impact on the stability of its regime</b>For example: During this crisis, Putin repeatedly emphasized that \"trying to introduce Russia into war is a conspiracy of the West.\"<b>At the same time, after achieving the political goal, he quickly and dignificantly escaped unscathed, that is, the strategy of \"approaching war\" instead of \"substantial war\".</b>So what is the \"bottom line\" of the West that Russia faces?</p><p><b>2. United States: Regain dominance over Europe by exaggerating the crisis</b></p><p>For the United States, its current strategic focus has completely shifted to focus on the Asia-Pacific region. It does not want to be dispersed too much power by Eastern Europe. Therefore, on the basis of accepting the \"Minsk Agreement\" that is, maintaining the \"status quo\", giving Ukraine certain support is its core strategic interest.<b>Therefore, Ukraine's attempt to join NATO itself is difficult to be accepted by the United States.</b>Maintaining the \"status quo\" is the common position of European countries such as Germany and France, which have closer interactions with Russia's interests.<b>The core starting point of its threats such as severe energy sanctions against Russia is to prevent Russia from further invading Ukraine and change the \"status quo.\"</b></p><p>As far as the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is concerned, on the one hand, Biden hopes to take this opportunity to save his precarious domestic support rate since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan last year by demonstrating toughness. On the other hand,<b>With the help of the exaggeration of Russia's \"invasion\" of Ukraine, European countries' panic and dependence on the United States have been strengthened, taking the opportunity to bridge the gap between the United States and Europe caused by Trump's \"America First\" in 2016, and regain the dominance of European relations.</b></p><p>As the biggest loser of the actual interests of the Crimean crisis and the Minsk Agreement in 2014, Ukraine is the \"breaker\" that most hopes to \"break the status quo\" in this crisis. However, the reality that its strength is the weakest makes it It is also hoped that by exaggerating the crisis, Ukraine will try to directly bring in the United States and other West to achieve \"breaking the situation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551949732bc0d5ebe78341e19040ce56\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The \"climax\" and \"end\" of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: the United States and Putin may achieve a \"win-win\" \"equilibrium point\"</b></p><p>Through the analysis of the fundamental interests of all parties involved in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it is not difficult to conclude that the \"climax\" of the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is not only the beginning of the \"big drama\" such as all-out war and strong energy sanctions that the market is worried about, but the fundamental reason for the \"final chapter\" before the \"end\" is that the interests of all parties have been \"balanced\" at the current point in time, and if we go further, the interests of all parties will bear unbearable losses.</p><p><b>1. As far as Putin and Russia are concerned: behind the tough statement, it is actually only the recognition of \"fait accompli\".</b>This incident strengthened Putin's authority among nationalists at home and effectively cracked down on his potential political opponents at home. Although its ambitious goals such as requiring NATO to return to 1997 have not been achieved, it prevented Ukraine from joining NATO and prevented Ukraine from taking continuous military recovery actions by publicly declaring its recognition of the independence of the two regions and the presence of Russian armed forces, so that it could be decent enough to \"get away with it\";<b>And because its approach, as the Ukrainian Prime Minister said, is only \"Russia legalizes its own army, which has actually existed in Donbass since 2014.\" There is no further attack on Kiev and other expansion behavior. Therefore, it also avoids touching the \"red lines\" of the United States and Europe.</b></p><p>It should be pointed out that this behavior, which is contrary to the existing \"international law system\" after all, has increased Russia's isolation in the international community, especially the western world, which may be regarded as some kind of price paid by it.</p><p>2. As far as the United States is concerned: As long as the \"status quo\" is maintained, no severe energy sanctions will be imposed. By demonstrating toughness this time, on the one hand, Biden will help improve his image of being weak at home after the Afghanistan incident; More importantly, through the serious insecurity of the European Union, especially the member states in Eastern Europe, about the so-called \"Russia wants to restore the Soviet territory\" under this crisis, the United States has seriously weakened the \"pro-Russian faction\" within the European Union, restarted the internal coordination mechanism of NATO, directed Danish, Spanish, Italian, French and other troops to deploy to Eastern Europe, and then strengthened its control over the European Union in an all-round way.</p><p><b>Since maintaining the \"status quo\" is the consensus of interests of all parties except Ukraine, what Russia is doing at present has not changed the \"status quo\", but only \"opened up\" the fait accompli. Therefore, Europe and the United States will not impose severe sanctions on Russia</b>(Only symbolic sanctions will be imposed, just like the current investment restrictions and sanctions on relevant officials in Luhansk and Donetsk.<b>Therefore, after the announcement of U.S. sanctions, the Russian stock market and U.S. stocks both rose sharply, while crude oil prices fell sharply</b>): The White House and the British government said that \"if further Russian invasion occurs, there will be tougher sanctions.\"</p><p>As a party whose interests are damaged, Ukraine is still the loser of this crisis. The tense situation has caused a substantial withdrawal of foreign capital, deeply affected the economy, and the goal of changing the status quo of the Minsk Agreement has not been achieved. However, Ukraine's relatively weak strength and the religious and ethnic contradictions in eastern Ukraine itself have forced it to accept the status quo in stages. Therefore, the Ukrainian president also said \"we want peace\" after Russia's declaration.</p><p>Of course, it needs to be pointed out that it is difficult for Ukraine to accept the current \"status quo\" for a long time due to its own national and national interests. Therefore, in the medium and long term, new conflicts and confrontations may continue to occur in eastern Ukraine.</p><p><b>3. \"Walk to the poor place of water, sit and watch the clouds rise\"-the impact of the four \"close war\" crises under the historical review on the capital market</b></p><p>In the above, we used logic to deduce the interests of all parties and the \"equilibrium point\" of the game in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, pointing out that the \"climax\" of this \"close-to-war\" crisis, that is, the market is worried about The war and Russian energy sanctions will not occur, so the prices of related risk assets may \"bottom out\" in stages while the prices of crude oil may \"peak\" in stages. So under the similar risk of \"approaching war\" in history, does the true performance of the capital market follow this law?</p><p><b>1. The impact of Russia's annexation of Georgia and Crimea under Putin on crude oil: oil prices peak when the crisis lands</b></p><p>First of all, starting from the last 20 years, two conflicts between Russia and neighboring countries and the threat of sanctions from the West, we study the law of crude oil price trends under geopolitical risks. We can find that: Russia's Georgia war in August 2008 and Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014 basically peaked when the crisis came to its climax.</p><p>The reason is that by sorting out the Western sanctions against Russia after these two crises, we can find that the Western sanctions are only personal sanctions against some Russian officials and partial sanctions in the areas involved. The strong energy sanctions that the market was previously worried about have not happened.</p><p>The reason behind this is that Putin very \"accurately\" chose the \"blank\" zone that the West ignored at that time, and avoided the \"red line\" of the West, such as the use of force in the \"indirect zone\" of Georgia in 2008, which benefited from the indifference of the West to this region; The \"proxy offensive\" in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 relied on the chaos of regime change in Ukraine and the hesitation of the western world under the chaos of historical laws.</p><p>For crude oil prices, due to the fermentation process of the previous crisis<b>Expectations of strong energy sanctions and crude oil supply shortages have been overdrawn,</b>And a large number of \"profit-taking orders\" have been hoarded. Therefore, when the crisis comes to fruition and the sanctions are significantly lower than expected, the excessively raised oil price and the unbalanced bargaining structure will drive the oil price to \"peak\", and there will be an adjustment of up to 2 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda4e8edd4833d5fd4665ea814a094fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The impact of four \"close-to-war\" crises on the capital market: What are the odds of winning the \"contrarian investment strategy\"?</b></p><p>As far as the nature of the crisis is concerned, the intensity of the confrontation between the West and Russia in this Russia-Ukraine crisis is much greater than that in the Georgian crisis in 2008 and the Crimean crisis in 2014. If the West was indifferent or caught off guard in the first two incidents, then in this crisis, the United States upgraded its defense readiness to level 3, which is the same level as the Cuban missile crisis, basically<b>Tit-for-tat \"close to war\" state,</b>So in history, how will the global capital market perform under this crisis of \"close to war\"?</p><p>In fact, during the Cold War, this kind of \"near-war\" confrontation between great powers occurred four times: the first Berlin crisis in June 1948, the second Berlin crisis in late 1958, the third Berlin crisis in mid-1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962. By observing the performance of US stocks during these periods, we can find that:</p><p>1) First, from<b>General trend angle</b>Look, except for the first Berlin crisis, which broke out shortly after World War II and caused global investors to worry about the outbreak of World War III, which in turn triggered the adjustment of U.S. stocks for nearly a year or so, the other two Berlin crises and Cuba The impact of the missile crisis on the Dow Jones index is at most 1-2 months<b>\"Event shock\"</b>, did not change the overall bull market situation of U.S. stocks;</p><p>2) Secondly, from<b>Event transactions</b>From the perspective of, each of the four \"close wars\" had one<b>The law of \"contrarian investment strategy\" with obvious winning rate,</b>I.e.: in<b>When the crisis reaches its climax, the best \"buying point\" is when the market is most panicked, and then it will show a \"V-shaped\" reversal:</b>Our statistics show that if you hold at the best \"buy point\" for one month, the average yields for one quarter and half a year are 8.79%, 11.11% and 15.01% respectively.</p><p>As the saying goes, \"Walk to the poor place of water, sit and watch the clouds rise\".<b>Among the four \"near-war\" crises, this \"most panicking moment\" of the best buying point specifically refers to</b>：</p><p><ul><li>During the first Berlin crisis, on June 24, 1948, the Soviet Union completely cut off land and water transportation and freight transportation between the Western Occupied Area and Berlin;</p><p></li><li>During the Second Berlin Crisis, on November 27, 1958, the Soviet Union unilaterally issued an \"ultimatum\" demanding that Britain, the United States and France withdraw their troops from West Berlin within six months;</p><p></li><li>In the third Berlin crisis, at the beginning of July, 1961, Soviet leader Khrushchev announced the suspension of demobilization and increased military expenditure by one third. He made a speech threatening to launch war and step down on West Berlin. US President Kennedy made a tough response, never repeating the appeasement policy, and asked Congress to increase the defense budget by $3.25 billion, recruit some reservists and the National Guard to join the army, expand civil defense and build air defense measures.</p><p></li></ul>During the Cuban Missile Crisis, on October 23, 1962, the Soviet government issued a statement \"resolutely rejecting\" the interception of the United States and \"will carry out the most fierce response\" to the threat of the United States. At the same time, the nuclear missile forces of the United States and the Soviet Union entered the highest alert.</p><p>Among the four \"close to war\" crises, the reason why the world's most panicking moment has become the \"buying point\" with the highest yield of \"contrarian investment strategy\" is,<b>The essence is due to the rapid easing and reversal of the crisis situation itself after the most panicking moment:</b>For example, the first and second Berlin crises ended with the Soviet Union's concessions and lifting the blockade, the third Berlin crisis ended with the Soviet Union's defensive measures to build the Berlin Wall, and the Cuban Missile Crisis ended with the Soviet Union's withdrawal of nuclear missiles deployed in Cuba.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/861c0a673c0c52d0f4b68926ca8c4980\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The profound mechanism behind the high winning rate of \"contrarian investment strategy\": the game strategy of \"close competition\" and \"attack instead of defense\"</b></p><p>We believe that this kind of investment law is not accidental. Behind it is a profound \"close to war\" game strategy and logic of great powers:</p><p>1) First of all, in the context of mutual destruction in nuclear war, as a relatively weak party, whether it is the Soviet Union during the Cold War or Russia today,<b>Policymakers are well aware of the \"catastrophic consequences\" of a real all-out war between big powers on the stability of domestic regimes, so they will try their best to avoid a real war.</b>Since a real war will not break out, the impact on the endogenous fundamentals of U.S. listed companies is relatively controllable and will not change the general trend of U.S. stocks. With the advancement of the Cold War process, the market has gradually priced in the \"background of the era of increasing confrontation between major powers\",<b>Therefore, the impact of the four \"close-to-war\" crises of the \"Cuban Missile Crisis\" on the capital market mostly presents \"event shocks\" in which risk appetite declines in stages.</b></p><p>2) Secondly, the Cuban Missile Crisis-style four \"close to war\"<b>Essence</b>Can be regarded as<b>In the confrontation between great powers, the weaker side adopts the game strategy of \"attacking instead of defending\".</b>In the game of great powers such as the Cold War, facing the aggressive offensive of the more powerful United States and Western camps, for example, before the Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States deployed nuclear weapons in Turkey and other areas close to the hinterland of the Soviet Union. Before this Russia-Ukraine crisis, NATO's constant \"eastward expansion\" and support for Ukraine, etc., the Soviet Union and Russia, as relatively weak parties, can only make the West pay attention to their strategic demands and enhance their leaders' prestige at home by resorting to demonstrating their tough determination and will to fight at war. In this process, it will inevitably be accompanied by the continuous escalation of the situation until there is a certain degree of \"panic\" in the western society as a whole. As far as the capital market is concerned, risk assets will inevitably usher in a certain degree of impact and adjustment in this process.</p><p>By \"replacing defense with attack\", certain strategic goals have been achieved, such as: after enhancing the political prestige of leaders,<b>Policymakers are considering how to get away with a \"winner's posture\" with dignity, which often requires showing a tougher posture and being \"just right\" in essence.</b>For example: in the Berlin crisis, Khrushchev built the Berlin Wall. In this Russia-Ukraine crisis, Putin recognized the \"fait accompli\" of the independence of the two eastern Ukrainian states, ensuring a decent and tough stance and maintaining the minimum geopolitical status quo.<b>This is also the crisis itself of \"close to war\", which is approaching the \"end\" when it reaches the \"climax\", and the high winning rate of the \"contrarian investment strategy\"-the most panicked moment in the capital market is easy to form the \"best buying point\" mechanism behind it.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/284f49f50776fd64467a9af18a5296f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>IV. Conclusion: \"End\" and \"Opening\"</b></p><p><b>The \"end\" under the \"climax\":</b>To sum up, no matter the logical deduction from the interests and game strategies of all parties in this Russia-Ukraine crisis: the interests of all parties have achieved \"equilibrium\" at the current point in time, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis is currently approaching the most panicking \"climax\", which itself It also means that it may \"end\" at any time. Therefore, the risk of a full-scale war and strong sanctions on Russian crude oil that the market is most worried about will most likely not happen.</p><p>Or from the impact of previous \"close-to-war\" big power games on the market: when the market is most panicked, the \"reverse investment strategy\" of buying risky assets such as equity and selling crude oil can always achieve obvious excess returns. Both indicate:<b>At the current point in time, there is a high probability that risky assets such as stocks have bottomed out in stages, so investors in the equity market need not be pessimistic; On the contrary, commodities such as crude oil, which are currently the most excited, may peak in stages, and investors should treat them with moderate caution.</b></p><p><b>The \"beginning\" of the \"era of great changes\":</b>Although the Russia-Ukraine crisis itself is about to \"end\" in the \"climax\", from a medium and long-term perspective, due to the existing international legal system and the post-Cold War geopolitical order in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, it has suffered a clear impact for the first time, so this Russia-Ukraine crisis may herald a<b>A new era of \"great changes\"</b>The arrival of, namely:<b>The game between major powers continues to intensify, the insecurity among countries is increasing day by day, and the weight of security in the supply chains of various countries is increasingly higher than that of economic efficiency itself.</b></p><p>In this sense, the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is both the \"end\" and the \"beginning\", and the \"beginning\" of the \"era of great changes\" is also under the Russia-Ukraine crisis.<b>The real medium-and long-term investment opportunities truly bred by the capital market lie in: domestic substitution and supply chain security such as domestic materials in the upstream of semiconductors, software ecosystem supporting Huawei's domestic chips, OEMs in the military industry</b>The relevant sub-sectors may usher in more support from policies, resources, funds, etc. in the new era of \"big changes\", which deserves investors' attention.</p><p>Risk warning: The Russia-Ukraine crisis has seen an unexpected \"black swan\", and the trend of crude oil, stock market, etc. has changed beyond expectations due to other factors.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Russia-Ukraine crisis shakes the global market! What are the odds of winning a contrarian investment strategy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Russia-Ukraine crisis shakes the global market! What are the odds of winning a contrarian investment strategy?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/71\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">李迅雷金融与投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-24 14:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction</b></p><p><b>Interpretation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: \"Walk to a poor place, sit and watch the clouds rise.\"</b>Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, announced the garrison of troops and delivered a tough speech. At the same time, the United States announced that the defense readiness of the US military has been upgraded to level 3 (the same level as the Cuban Missile Crisis), and began to impose financial sanctions on Russia. Affected by this risk event, the global market fluctuated greatly: the price of crude oil once jumped to nearly US $100/barrel, the stock indexes of major global capital markets such as Europe and the United States generally fell by about 2%, and the Russian MOEX index at the center of the event fell by nearly 10% for two consecutive days.</p><p><b>The core reason why the Russia-Ukraine crisis has triggered such great fluctuations in the global market lies in two concerns of global investors: 1) The market is worried about the risk of war between Russia and Ukraine in the future; 2) The market is worried that Putin's move will trigger unprecedented severe sanctions from the United States and Europe, such as removing Russian crude oil from the global crude oil supply system, which will change the supply and demand of crude oil and other commodities and aggravate global inflation.</b></p><p>But we believe that investors do not need to panic at this time. The climax of the Russia-Ukraine crisis may also mean that it is about to \"end\". Regardless of the Russia-Ukraine crisis itself, the two major risks that the market is worried about-the risk of war and the risk of strong Russian energy sanctions, there is a high probability that it will not happen; Or in all previous \"close-to-war\" crises, the historical law that the \"contrarian investment strategy\" at the most panicked moment has the highest rate of return may indicate that risky assets represented by stocks have a high probability of \"bottoming out\" in stages, while Crude oil prices may have a high probability of \"peaking\" in stages.</p><p>We will analyze the game strategies and \"equilibrium points\" of interests of all parties in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, the rules of return of the \"contrarian investment\" strategy in the four \"close-to-war\" great power games in history, and this \"contrarian investment\" The above viewpoint is elaborated from multiple dimensions such as the logic of the game between great powers behind the effectiveness of the \"investment\" strategy.</p><p><b>1. The \"big chess game\" between Russia and Ukraine: What are the players at the chess table thinking?</b></p><p><b>1. Russia: Maintaining the \"status quo\" of the Minsk Agreement and enhancing Putin's domestic \"prestige\"</b></p><p>The reason for the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis dates back to the political turmoil in Ukraine in 2014. While Putin marched into Crimea, he supported the de facto independence of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, where ethnic Russians are majority.<b>In fact, the above-mentioned areas have been controlled by Russian armed forces since 2014. However, in the past few years, Russia has never publicly acknowledged that these areas are controlled by Russia, but claimed that they were the work of local \"pro-Russian militias\".</b>In 2015, under the coordination of the West, Ukraine was also forced to sign the Minsk Agreement, which de facto recognized the independent status of eastern Ukraine (including: the withdrawal of Ukrainian government forces from the region and the agreement to local autonomy)</p><p>Since Ukraine's political situation gradually stabilized in 2015, out of considerations for Ukraine's own national interests, it has continuously demanded revisions to the Minsk Agreement. At the same time, it has continuously tried to move closer to NATO politically and continuously attacked the above two regions of eastern Ukraine militarily. local armed forces and made a certain degree of progress. This is constantly troubling the domestic support rate of Russia and Putin.</p><p>Therefore, in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, although Putin has given ambitious goals such as \"NATO stops its eastward expansion, returns its deployment to before 1997, and abandons any military activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia\", its real<b>\"Bottom Line Proposition\"</b>Or is still:<b>The \"status quo\" that prevents Ukrainian membership in NATO and preserves the de facto independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.</b>Russia originally hoped to use diplomatic channels with the United States and Europe to force Ukraine to continue to accept the \"status quo\" under the Minsk Agreement. After diplomatic efforts failed, it could deter Ukraine from taking further action by publicly recognizing the independence of these two regions and the existence of Russian armed forces.</p><p><b>For Putin, his more important purpose is to enhance his prestige at home:</b>In recent years, with the downturn of Russia's economy, its official statistical support rate in 2020 has dropped by 20% from its historical high. At the same time, opposition * such as Narvani in Russia have also had an impact on it. Behind Putin's seemingly tough speech on Ukraine, he attributed the root cause of the Ukrainian issue to \"the wrong practice of the former Soviet Union\" and \"NATO's treachery\". Its purpose was also to attack his domestic \"left\" and \"right\" political opponents.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1fbaf24361f00995ae97410246f652\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is precisely because of Putin's basic political goal of enhancing domestic prestige and the objective reality that Russia's strength is obviously inferior to that of the Western camp that it may deter the West and boost domestic morale by creating tension.<b>But will do everything possible to avoid a real war that breaks through the \"bottom line\" of the West and has a fatal impact on the stability of its regime</b>For example: During this crisis, Putin repeatedly emphasized that \"trying to introduce Russia into war is a conspiracy of the West.\"<b>At the same time, after achieving the political goal, he quickly and dignificantly escaped unscathed, that is, the strategy of \"approaching war\" instead of \"substantial war\".</b>So what is the \"bottom line\" of the West that Russia faces?</p><p><b>2. United States: Regain dominance over Europe by exaggerating the crisis</b></p><p>For the United States, its current strategic focus has completely shifted to focus on the Asia-Pacific region. It does not want to be dispersed too much power by Eastern Europe. Therefore, on the basis of accepting the \"Minsk Agreement\" that is, maintaining the \"status quo\", giving Ukraine certain support is its core strategic interest.<b>Therefore, Ukraine's attempt to join NATO itself is difficult to be accepted by the United States.</b>Maintaining the \"status quo\" is the common position of European countries such as Germany and France, which have closer interactions with Russia's interests.<b>The core starting point of its threats such as severe energy sanctions against Russia is to prevent Russia from further invading Ukraine and change the \"status quo.\"</b></p><p>As far as the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is concerned, on the one hand, Biden hopes to take this opportunity to save his precarious domestic support rate since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan last year by demonstrating toughness. On the other hand,<b>With the help of the exaggeration of Russia's \"invasion\" of Ukraine, European countries' panic and dependence on the United States have been strengthened, taking the opportunity to bridge the gap between the United States and Europe caused by Trump's \"America First\" in 2016, and regain the dominance of European relations.</b></p><p>As the biggest loser of the actual interests of the Crimean crisis and the Minsk Agreement in 2014, Ukraine is the \"breaker\" that most hopes to \"break the status quo\" in this crisis. However, the reality that its strength is the weakest makes it It is also hoped that by exaggerating the crisis, Ukraine will try to directly bring in the United States and other West to achieve \"breaking the situation\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551949732bc0d5ebe78341e19040ce56\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The \"climax\" and \"end\" of the Russia-Ukraine crisis: the United States and Putin may achieve a \"win-win\" \"equilibrium point\"</b></p><p>Through the analysis of the fundamental interests of all parties involved in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it is not difficult to conclude that the \"climax\" of the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is not only the beginning of the \"big drama\" such as all-out war and strong energy sanctions that the market is worried about, but the fundamental reason for the \"final chapter\" before the \"end\" is that the interests of all parties have been \"balanced\" at the current point in time, and if we go further, the interests of all parties will bear unbearable losses.</p><p><b>1. As far as Putin and Russia are concerned: behind the tough statement, it is actually only the recognition of \"fait accompli\".</b>This incident strengthened Putin's authority among nationalists at home and effectively cracked down on his potential political opponents at home. Although its ambitious goals such as requiring NATO to return to 1997 have not been achieved, it prevented Ukraine from joining NATO and prevented Ukraine from taking continuous military recovery actions by publicly declaring its recognition of the independence of the two regions and the presence of Russian armed forces, so that it could be decent enough to \"get away with it\";<b>And because its approach, as the Ukrainian Prime Minister said, is only \"Russia legalizes its own army, which has actually existed in Donbass since 2014.\" There is no further attack on Kiev and other expansion behavior. Therefore, it also avoids touching the \"red lines\" of the United States and Europe.</b></p><p>It should be pointed out that this behavior, which is contrary to the existing \"international law system\" after all, has increased Russia's isolation in the international community, especially the western world, which may be regarded as some kind of price paid by it.</p><p>2. As far as the United States is concerned: As long as the \"status quo\" is maintained, no severe energy sanctions will be imposed. By demonstrating toughness this time, on the one hand, Biden will help improve his image of being weak at home after the Afghanistan incident; More importantly, through the serious insecurity of the European Union, especially the member states in Eastern Europe, about the so-called \"Russia wants to restore the Soviet territory\" under this crisis, the United States has seriously weakened the \"pro-Russian faction\" within the European Union, restarted the internal coordination mechanism of NATO, directed Danish, Spanish, Italian, French and other troops to deploy to Eastern Europe, and then strengthened its control over the European Union in an all-round way.</p><p><b>Since maintaining the \"status quo\" is the consensus of interests of all parties except Ukraine, what Russia is doing at present has not changed the \"status quo\", but only \"opened up\" the fait accompli. Therefore, Europe and the United States will not impose severe sanctions on Russia</b>(Only symbolic sanctions will be imposed, just like the current investment restrictions and sanctions on relevant officials in Luhansk and Donetsk.<b>Therefore, after the announcement of U.S. sanctions, the Russian stock market and U.S. stocks both rose sharply, while crude oil prices fell sharply</b>): The White House and the British government said that \"if further Russian invasion occurs, there will be tougher sanctions.\"</p><p>As a party whose interests are damaged, Ukraine is still the loser of this crisis. The tense situation has caused a substantial withdrawal of foreign capital, deeply affected the economy, and the goal of changing the status quo of the Minsk Agreement has not been achieved. However, Ukraine's relatively weak strength and the religious and ethnic contradictions in eastern Ukraine itself have forced it to accept the status quo in stages. Therefore, the Ukrainian president also said \"we want peace\" after Russia's declaration.</p><p>Of course, it needs to be pointed out that it is difficult for Ukraine to accept the current \"status quo\" for a long time due to its own national and national interests. Therefore, in the medium and long term, new conflicts and confrontations may continue to occur in eastern Ukraine.</p><p><b>3. \"Walk to the poor place of water, sit and watch the clouds rise\"-the impact of the four \"close war\" crises under the historical review on the capital market</b></p><p>In the above, we used logic to deduce the interests of all parties and the \"equilibrium point\" of the game in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, pointing out that the \"climax\" of this \"close-to-war\" crisis, that is, the market is worried about The war and Russian energy sanctions will not occur, so the prices of related risk assets may \"bottom out\" in stages while the prices of crude oil may \"peak\" in stages. So under the similar risk of \"approaching war\" in history, does the true performance of the capital market follow this law?</p><p><b>1. The impact of Russia's annexation of Georgia and Crimea under Putin on crude oil: oil prices peak when the crisis lands</b></p><p>First of all, starting from the last 20 years, two conflicts between Russia and neighboring countries and the threat of sanctions from the West, we study the law of crude oil price trends under geopolitical risks. We can find that: Russia's Georgia war in August 2008 and Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014 basically peaked when the crisis came to its climax.</p><p>The reason is that by sorting out the Western sanctions against Russia after these two crises, we can find that the Western sanctions are only personal sanctions against some Russian officials and partial sanctions in the areas involved. The strong energy sanctions that the market was previously worried about have not happened.</p><p>The reason behind this is that Putin very \"accurately\" chose the \"blank\" zone that the West ignored at that time, and avoided the \"red line\" of the West, such as the use of force in the \"indirect zone\" of Georgia in 2008, which benefited from the indifference of the West to this region; The \"proxy offensive\" in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 relied on the chaos of regime change in Ukraine and the hesitation of the western world under the chaos of historical laws.</p><p>For crude oil prices, due to the fermentation process of the previous crisis<b>Expectations of strong energy sanctions and crude oil supply shortages have been overdrawn,</b>And a large number of \"profit-taking orders\" have been hoarded. Therefore, when the crisis comes to fruition and the sanctions are significantly lower than expected, the excessively raised oil price and the unbalanced bargaining structure will drive the oil price to \"peak\", and there will be an adjustment of up to 2 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda4e8edd4833d5fd4665ea814a094fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. The impact of four \"close-to-war\" crises on the capital market: What are the odds of winning the \"contrarian investment strategy\"?</b></p><p>As far as the nature of the crisis is concerned, the intensity of the confrontation between the West and Russia in this Russia-Ukraine crisis is much greater than that in the Georgian crisis in 2008 and the Crimean crisis in 2014. If the West was indifferent or caught off guard in the first two incidents, then in this crisis, the United States upgraded its defense readiness to level 3, which is the same level as the Cuban missile crisis, basically<b>Tit-for-tat \"close to war\" state,</b>So in history, how will the global capital market perform under this crisis of \"close to war\"?</p><p>In fact, during the Cold War, this kind of \"near-war\" confrontation between great powers occurred four times: the first Berlin crisis in June 1948, the second Berlin crisis in late 1958, the third Berlin crisis in mid-1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962. By observing the performance of US stocks during these periods, we can find that:</p><p>1) First, from<b>General trend angle</b>Look, except for the first Berlin crisis, which broke out shortly after World War II and caused global investors to worry about the outbreak of World War III, which in turn triggered the adjustment of U.S. stocks for nearly a year or so, the other two Berlin crises and Cuba The impact of the missile crisis on the Dow Jones index is at most 1-2 months<b>\"Event shock\"</b>, did not change the overall bull market situation of U.S. stocks;</p><p>2) Secondly, from<b>Event transactions</b>From the perspective of, each of the four \"close wars\" had one<b>The law of \"contrarian investment strategy\" with obvious winning rate,</b>I.e.: in<b>When the crisis reaches its climax, the best \"buying point\" is when the market is most panicked, and then it will show a \"V-shaped\" reversal:</b>Our statistics show that if you hold at the best \"buy point\" for one month, the average yields for one quarter and half a year are 8.79%, 11.11% and 15.01% respectively.</p><p>As the saying goes, \"Walk to the poor place of water, sit and watch the clouds rise\".<b>Among the four \"near-war\" crises, this \"most panicking moment\" of the best buying point specifically refers to</b>：</p><p><ul><li>During the first Berlin crisis, on June 24, 1948, the Soviet Union completely cut off land and water transportation and freight transportation between the Western Occupied Area and Berlin;</p><p></li><li>During the Second Berlin Crisis, on November 27, 1958, the Soviet Union unilaterally issued an \"ultimatum\" demanding that Britain, the United States and France withdraw their troops from West Berlin within six months;</p><p></li><li>In the third Berlin crisis, at the beginning of July, 1961, Soviet leader Khrushchev announced the suspension of demobilization and increased military expenditure by one third. He made a speech threatening to launch war and step down on West Berlin. US President Kennedy made a tough response, never repeating the appeasement policy, and asked Congress to increase the defense budget by $3.25 billion, recruit some reservists and the National Guard to join the army, expand civil defense and build air defense measures.</p><p></li></ul>During the Cuban Missile Crisis, on October 23, 1962, the Soviet government issued a statement \"resolutely rejecting\" the interception of the United States and \"will carry out the most fierce response\" to the threat of the United States. At the same time, the nuclear missile forces of the United States and the Soviet Union entered the highest alert.</p><p>Among the four \"close to war\" crises, the reason why the world's most panicking moment has become the \"buying point\" with the highest yield of \"contrarian investment strategy\" is,<b>The essence is due to the rapid easing and reversal of the crisis situation itself after the most panicking moment:</b>For example, the first and second Berlin crises ended with the Soviet Union's concessions and lifting the blockade, the third Berlin crisis ended with the Soviet Union's defensive measures to build the Berlin Wall, and the Cuban Missile Crisis ended with the Soviet Union's withdrawal of nuclear missiles deployed in Cuba.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/861c0a673c0c52d0f4b68926ca8c4980\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The profound mechanism behind the high winning rate of \"contrarian investment strategy\": the game strategy of \"close competition\" and \"attack instead of defense\"</b></p><p>We believe that this kind of investment law is not accidental. Behind it is a profound \"close to war\" game strategy and logic of great powers:</p><p>1) First of all, in the context of mutual destruction in nuclear war, as a relatively weak party, whether it is the Soviet Union during the Cold War or Russia today,<b>Policymakers are well aware of the \"catastrophic consequences\" of a real all-out war between big powers on the stability of domestic regimes, so they will try their best to avoid a real war.</b>Since a real war will not break out, the impact on the endogenous fundamentals of U.S. listed companies is relatively controllable and will not change the general trend of U.S. stocks. With the advancement of the Cold War process, the market has gradually priced in the \"background of the era of increasing confrontation between major powers\",<b>Therefore, the impact of the four \"close-to-war\" crises of the \"Cuban Missile Crisis\" on the capital market mostly presents \"event shocks\" in which risk appetite declines in stages.</b></p><p>2) Secondly, the Cuban Missile Crisis-style four \"close to war\"<b>Essence</b>Can be regarded as<b>In the confrontation between great powers, the weaker side adopts the game strategy of \"attacking instead of defending\".</b>In the game of great powers such as the Cold War, facing the aggressive offensive of the more powerful United States and Western camps, for example, before the Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States deployed nuclear weapons in Turkey and other areas close to the hinterland of the Soviet Union. Before this Russia-Ukraine crisis, NATO's constant \"eastward expansion\" and support for Ukraine, etc., the Soviet Union and Russia, as relatively weak parties, can only make the West pay attention to their strategic demands and enhance their leaders' prestige at home by resorting to demonstrating their tough determination and will to fight at war. In this process, it will inevitably be accompanied by the continuous escalation of the situation until there is a certain degree of \"panic\" in the western society as a whole. As far as the capital market is concerned, risk assets will inevitably usher in a certain degree of impact and adjustment in this process.</p><p>By \"replacing defense with attack\", certain strategic goals have been achieved, such as: after enhancing the political prestige of leaders,<b>Policymakers are considering how to get away with a \"winner's posture\" with dignity, which often requires showing a tougher posture and being \"just right\" in essence.</b>For example: in the Berlin crisis, Khrushchev built the Berlin Wall. In this Russia-Ukraine crisis, Putin recognized the \"fait accompli\" of the independence of the two eastern Ukrainian states, ensuring a decent and tough stance and maintaining the minimum geopolitical status quo.<b>This is also the crisis itself of \"close to war\", which is approaching the \"end\" when it reaches the \"climax\", and the high winning rate of the \"contrarian investment strategy\"-the most panicked moment in the capital market is easy to form the \"best buying point\" mechanism behind it.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/284f49f50776fd64467a9af18a5296f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>IV. Conclusion: \"End\" and \"Opening\"</b></p><p><b>The \"end\" under the \"climax\":</b>To sum up, no matter the logical deduction from the interests and game strategies of all parties in this Russia-Ukraine crisis: the interests of all parties have achieved \"equilibrium\" at the current point in time, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis is currently approaching the most panicking \"climax\", which itself It also means that it may \"end\" at any time. Therefore, the risk of a full-scale war and strong sanctions on Russian crude oil that the market is most worried about will most likely not happen.</p><p>Or from the impact of previous \"close-to-war\" big power games on the market: when the market is most panicked, the \"reverse investment strategy\" of buying risky assets such as equity and selling crude oil can always achieve obvious excess returns. Both indicate:<b>At the current point in time, there is a high probability that risky assets such as stocks have bottomed out in stages, so investors in the equity market need not be pessimistic; On the contrary, commodities such as crude oil, which are currently the most excited, may peak in stages, and investors should treat them with moderate caution.</b></p><p><b>The \"beginning\" of the \"era of great changes\":</b>Although the Russia-Ukraine crisis itself is about to \"end\" in the \"climax\", from a medium and long-term perspective, due to the existing international legal system and the post-Cold War geopolitical order in this Russia-Ukraine crisis, it has suffered a clear impact for the first time, so this Russia-Ukraine crisis may herald a<b>A new era of \"great changes\"</b>The arrival of, namely:<b>The game between major powers continues to intensify, the insecurity among countries is increasing day by day, and the weight of security in the supply chains of various countries is increasingly higher than that of economic efficiency itself.</b></p><p>In this sense, the current Russia-Ukraine crisis is both the \"end\" and the \"beginning\", and the \"beginning\" of the \"era of great changes\" is also under the Russia-Ukraine crisis.<b>The real medium-and long-term investment opportunities truly bred by the capital market lie in: domestic substitution and supply chain security such as domestic materials in the upstream of semiconductors, software ecosystem supporting Huawei's domestic chips, OEMs in the military industry</b>The relevant sub-sectors may usher in more support from policies, resources, funds, etc. in the new era of \"big changes\", which deserves investors' attention.</p><p>Risk warning: The Russia-Ukraine crisis has seen an unexpected \"black swan\", and the trend of crude oil, stock market, etc. has changed beyond expectations due to other factors.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00745cd781f91ef6ef359064c639fbb","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120561496","content_text":"引  言俄乌危机演绎：“行到水穷处，坐看云起时”。近期，俄罗斯总统普京宣布承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国并宣布驻军、发表强硬演讲，同时，美国宣布美军防御准备状态已升至3级（与古巴导弹危机同级），并开始对俄罗斯实施金融制裁。受这一风险事件影响，全球市场大幅波动：原油价格一度跳升至接近100美元/桶，欧美等全球主要资本市场股指普遍下跌2%左右，而事件中心的俄罗斯MOEX指数更是连续两天最大跌幅接近10%。俄乌危机之所以引发全球市场如此大的波动，其核心在于全球投资者的两个担心：1）市场担心此后俄罗斯与乌克兰，乃至其引发战火的风险；2）市场担心普京此举，将引发美、欧空前严厉的制裁，如：将俄罗斯原油剔除全球原油供应系统，这将改变原油等大宗商品供求，并加剧全球通胀。但我们认为：投资者此时无需恐慌，俄乌危机的最高潮或许也意味着其即将“落幕”，无论就俄乌危机本身，市场担心的两大风险——战争风险与俄罗斯能源强制裁风险，大概率不会发生；还是就历次“接近战争”的危机中，最为恐慌的时刻“逆势投资策略”反而收益率最高的历史规律或均预示着：以股票为代表的风险资产大概率阶段性“触底”，而原油价格或大概率阶段性“见顶”。我们将从本次俄乌危机各方的博弈策略与利益“均衡点”分析，历史上四次“接近战争”的大国博弈中“逆势投资”策略的收益率规律，以及这种“逆势投资”策略之所以有效背后的大国博弈逻辑等多个维度出发阐述上述观点。一、俄乌“大棋局”：棋桌上的各棋手在想什么？1. 俄罗斯：维持《明斯克协议》“现状”与提升普京国内“威望“本次俄乌危机的爆发的原因要追溯到2014年乌克兰政局动荡下，普京在进军克里米亚的同时，支持俄罗斯族占多数的东乌克兰的顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克地区事实独立。实际上，自2014年以来，上述地区就一直被俄罗斯武装所控制，只是过去几年，俄罗斯从不公开承认这些地方是俄罗斯控制的，而声称是当地“亲俄民兵”所为。2015年，在西方的协调下，也迫使乌克兰签署了事实上承认了东乌克兰独立地位的《明斯克协议》（包括：乌克兰政府军从该地区撤出，同意当地自治等）自2015年乌克兰政局逐步稳定以来，出于乌克兰自身国家利益的考虑，其不断要求修改《明斯克协议》，同时，在政治上不断试图向北约靠拢，在军事上不断攻击东乌克兰上述两个地区的当地武装，并取得一定程度进展。这对于俄罗斯和普京的国内支持率不断产生困扰。因此，本次俄乌危机，虽然普京给出了：“北约停止东扩，部署退回1997年以前，放弃在乌克兰、东欧、外高加索、中亚的任何军事活动”等宏大目标，但其真正的“底线主张”或仍是：阻止乌克兰加入北约以及维护顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克事实独立的“现状”。俄罗斯本希望借助与美欧外交渠道来迫使乌克兰继续接受《明斯克协议》下的“现状”，在外交努力无果后，或通过公开承认这两个地区的独立与俄罗斯武装存在的做法，借以吓阻乌克兰采取进一步行动。对于普京而言，其更为重要的目的在于提升其在国内的威望：近年来，伴随俄罗斯经济下行，2020年其官方统计的支持率已较其历史最高时期下滑20%，同时，俄罗斯国内，纳尔瓦尼等反对派游行亦对其产生冲击。普京的乌克兰讲话看似强硬的背后，将乌克兰问题的根源归结为“前苏联的错误实践”与“北约的背信弃义”，其目的也是在于打击其国内“左”和“右”的政治对手。正是由于普京提升国内威望的基本政治目标，以及俄罗斯实力明显逊于西方阵营的客观现实，这决定了其或会通过制造局势的紧张，来吓阻西方并提升国内士气，但会千方百计回避突破西方“底线”且对其政权稳定产生致命冲击的真正战争，如：普京在本次危机期间，反复强调，“试图将俄罗斯引入战争是西方的阴谋”。同时，在达成政治目的后，迅速体面地全身而退，也即：“接近战争”而不“实质战争”的策略。那么俄罗斯面临的西方的“底线”又是什么呢？2. 美国：借助渲染危机，重新获得对欧洲主导权对于美国而言，由于其当前战略重心已完全转向聚焦亚太。其并不希望被东欧分散过多力量，因此，在接受“明斯克协议”即维持“现状”的基础上，给予乌克兰一定支持是其核心战略利益。故乌克兰试图加入北约的主张本身就很难被美国所接受。而维持“现状”更是与俄罗斯利益交往更密切的德国、法国等欧洲国家的共同立场所在。其对于俄罗斯进行严厉能源制裁等威胁的核心出发点，均在于防止俄罗斯可能的进一步入侵乌克兰并改变“现状”。就本次俄乌危机而言，拜登一方面希望借此机会通过彰显强硬，来挽救其去年阿富汗撤军以来其国内岌岌可危的支持率。另一方面，借助对俄罗斯“入侵”乌克兰的渲染，强化了欧洲国家的恐慌及对美国的依赖，借机弥合2016年特朗普“美国优先”以来造成的美欧关系隔阂，重新掌握对欧洲关系的主导权。作为2014年克里米亚危机和《明斯克协议》的实际利益最大受损方，乌克兰是本次危机中最为希望“打破现状”的“破局者”，但其实力最为弱小的现实，使得其亦希望通过渲染危机，试图将美国等西方直接拉进来，以实现“破局”。二、俄乌危机的“高潮”与“落幕”：美国与普京或实现“双赢”的“均衡点”通过对俄乌危机中各参与方的根本利益诉求的分析，就不难得出，当前俄乌危机的“高潮”不仅不是市场担心的全面战争、能源强制裁等“大戏”的开始，反而是“落幕”前的“终章”，其根本原因在于，各方利益在当前时点已实现“均衡”，而再进一步，则各方利益都将承受不可承担之损失。1. 就普京与俄罗斯而言：强硬声明背后，实际仅是“既成事实”的承认。此次事件强化了普京在国内民族主义者的权威，并有效打击了其国内潜在政治对手。虽然其要求北约回到1997等宏伟目标并未实现，但阻止乌克兰加入北约和通过公开宣布承认两个地区独立和俄罗斯武装存在，阻止乌克兰不断采取的军事收复的行动，使其可以足够体面的“全身而退”；而由于其做法如同乌克兰总理所言，仅是“俄罗斯合法化自己的军队，这实际上自 2014 年以来就在顿巴斯存在了”。并无进一步进攻基辅等扩大化的行为，因此，也避免触及美欧的“红线”。需要指出的是，这一与现有“国际法体系”毕竟有违的行为，增加了俄罗斯在国际社会，特别是西方世界的被孤立程度，这或许也算是其支付的某种代价。2. 就美国而言：只要“现状”维持，就不会实施严厉的能源制裁。此次拜登通过彰显强硬，一方面，有助于改善其在阿富汗事件后国内偏软弱的形象；更重要的是，美国通过本次危机下欧盟，特别是东欧各成员国对于所谓 “俄罗斯要恢复苏联国土”的严重不安全感，严重削弱了欧盟内部“亲俄派”，重启了北约内部协调机制，指挥丹麦、西班牙、意大利、法国等国的军队向东欧部署，进而全方位强化对欧盟控制，也使得德国主动取消了美欧关系此前的一个重要阻碍——俄罗斯“北溪二号”天然气管道项目。由于维持“现状”是除乌克兰外的各方利益共识，而俄罗斯当前所为并没有改变“现状”，只是对既成事实的“公开化”。因此欧美不会对俄罗斯进行严重制裁（只会象征性制裁，如同当前的仅对卢甘斯克、顿涅斯克两个地区进行投资限制与相关官员进行制裁，故美国制裁措施公布后，俄罗斯股市、美股均大涨，而原油价格大跌）：白宫与英国政府表示“如果俄罗斯进一步入侵发生，将会有更严厉的制裁”。作为利益受损的一方，乌克兰依然是本次危机的输家，紧张的局势使得外资大幅撤离，经济深受影响，改变“明斯克协议”现状的目标也并未实现，但乌克兰相对弱小的实力，以及东乌克兰本身宗教、民族的矛盾，使得其不得不阶段性接受现状，故乌克兰总统在俄罗斯宣示后，亦表示“我们想要和平”。当然需要指出的是，乌克兰出于自身国家与民族利益的认知，很难长期接受当前“现状”，因此，从中长期看，东乌克兰地区或仍将不断产生新的冲突与对抗。三、“行到水穷处，坐看云起时”——历史复盘下的四次“接近战争”危机对资本市场的影响上文中，我们通过逻辑，推演了本次俄乌危机中各方的利益与博弈“均衡点”，指出这种“接近战争”危机的“高潮”，也即临近“落幕”，市场担心的战争与俄罗斯能源制裁不会发生，故相关风险资产价格或阶段性“触底”而原油等价格则或阶段性“见顶”。那么历史上类似的“接近战争”风险下，资本市场的真实表现是否遵循这一规律呢？1. 普京下的俄罗斯吞并格鲁吉亚、克里米亚对原油的影响：危机落地即油价见顶首先，我们从最近20年，两次俄罗斯与周边国家冲突，和西方的制裁威胁出发，研究地缘风险下原油价格走势的规律，可以发现：2008年08月俄罗斯的格鲁吉亚战争与2014年3月俄罗斯吞并克里米亚，基本上危机高潮落地之时即是原油价格见顶之时。其原因在于：通过梳理这两次危机之后的西方对俄罗斯制裁措施，可以发现：西方的制裁仅是对俄罗斯部分官员的个人制裁与涉事区域的局部制裁，市场此前所担心的强能源制裁并未发生。这背后的原因在于，普京非常“精准”地选择了西方当时所忽视的“空白”地带，回避了西方的“红线”，如：2008年在格鲁吉亚“间接地带”动武，这得益于西方对这一区域的漠不关心；2014年在克里米亚和乌克兰东部的“代理人攻势”，则借助了乌克兰内部政权更替的混乱以及历史法律的混乱下西方世界的犹豫。对于原油价格而言，由于在此前危机发酵过程当中被过度透支了强能源制裁和原油供给短缺的预期，并且囤积了大量的“获利盘”，故当危机落地，制裁力度明显低于预期之时，被过度拉高的油价和失衡的筹码结构都将驱动油价“见顶”，并出现长达2年以上级别的调整。2. 四次“接近战争”危机对资本市场的影响：“逆势投资策略”胜算几何？就危机性质而言，本次俄乌危机中，西方与俄罗斯的对峙烈度是远大于2008年格鲁吉亚危机和2014年克里米亚危机时。如果说，前两次事件西方是漠不关心或措手不及，那么，此次危机中美国将防御准备状态提升至3级，与古巴导弹危机同级，基本是针锋相对的“接近战争”状态，那么历史上，这种“接近战争”的危机下，全球资本市场又将如何演绎呢？实际上，在冷战期间，这种“接近战争”的大国对峙一共发生过四次：1948年6月的第一次柏林危机，1958年底的第二次柏林危机，1961年年中的第三次柏林危机与1962年10月的古巴导弹危机。通过观察这些时期的美股表现，可以发现：1） 首先，从大势角度看，除了第一次柏林危机，因为爆发在二战后不久，引发全球投资者对于第三次世界大战爆发的担忧，进而引发了美股接近一年左右的调整外，其余两次柏林危机与古巴导弹危机对道琼斯指数的影响均属最多1-2个月的“事件性冲击”，没有改变美股整体大牛市的情况；2） 其次，从事件交易的角度看，四次“接近战争” 均有一个胜率明显的“逆势投资策略”的规律，即：在危机发展到最高潮，市场最为恐慌的时候就是最佳的“买入点”，其后将呈现“V型”反转：我们统计发现，在最佳“买入点”持有一个月，一个季度和半年的平均收益率分别为8.79%、11.11%及15.01%。正所谓“行到水穷处，坐看云起时”。四次“接近战争”危机中，这种最佳买入点的“最恐慌时刻”具体指的是：第一次柏林危机中，1948年6月24日，苏联全面切断西占区与柏林的水陆交通及货运；第二次柏林危机中，1958年11月27日，苏联单方面发出“最后通牒”，要求英美法六个月内撤出西柏林驻军；第三次柏林危机中，1961年7月初，苏联领导人赫鲁晓夫宣布暂停复员，并将军费增加三分之一，发表讲话威胁将发动战争，踏平西柏林，美国总统肯尼迪作出强硬反应，绝不容重演绥靖政策，要求国会增加32.5亿美元的国防预算，征召部分后备役人员及国民警卫队入伍，扩大民防及修筑防空措施；古巴导弹危机中，1962年10月23日，苏联政府发表声明，“坚决拒绝”美国的拦截，对美国的威胁“将进行最激烈的回击”，同时，美苏双方核导弹部队进入最高警戒。四次“接近战争”的危机中，全球最恐慌时刻之所以成为“逆势投资策略”收益率最高的“买入点”，本质是由于最恐慌时刻之后，危机局势本身的迅速缓解和反转：如：第一次、第二次柏林危机以苏联的让步和解除封锁告终，第三次柏林危机，以苏联修建柏林墙的防御式措施结束，而古巴导弹危机则以苏联撤出在古巴部署的核导弹收场。3.“逆势投资策略”高胜率背后的深刻机制：“接近争”与“以攻代守”的博弈策略我们认为，这种投资规律不是偶然，这背后是有着深刻的“接近战争”的大国博弈策略和逻辑：1） 首先，在核战争相互毁灭的背景下，作为实力相对弱小的一方，无论是冷战时的苏联还是当前的俄罗斯，决策者均深知真正的大国间全面战争对于国内政权稳定的“灾难性后果”，因此，会极力避免发生真正的战争。既然真实的战争不会爆发，那么对美股上市公司内生基本面的影响就相对可控，不会改变美股的大趋势且伴随冷战过程的推进，市场逐步定价了“大国对抗增多的时代背景”，故“古巴导弹危机”式的四次“接近战争”危机对于资本市场的影响多呈现风险偏好阶段性下行的“事件性冲击”。2） 其次，古巴导弹危机式的四次“接近战争”的本质可以视为大国对抗中，实力较为弱小的一方，“以攻代守”的博弈策略。在诸如冷战这样的大国博弈之中，面对实力更为强大的美国和西方阵营咄咄逼人的攻势，如：古巴导弹危机前，美国在土耳其等接近苏联腹地的地区部署核武器，本次俄乌危机前，北约不断的“东扩”与对乌克兰的支持等，作为实力相对弱小一方的苏联和俄罗斯，只有诉诸于彰显强硬的不惜战争的决心和意志才能让西方重视自己的战略诉求并提升领导人在国内的威望。在这一过程中，必然伴随着不断的局势升级，直至让西方社会整体产生某种程度“恐慌”为止，就资本市场而言，风险资产必然在这一过程中迎来一定程度的冲击和调整。通过“以攻代守”，实现了一定的战略目标，诸如：提升领导人政治威望等之后，决策者考虑的是怎样以“胜利者姿态”，体面的全身而退，而这往往需要展示更加强硬的姿态，并在实质上的“恰到好处”，诸如：柏林危机中，赫鲁晓夫修建了柏林墙，本次俄乌危机中，普京通过承认乌克兰东部两个州独立的“既成事实”，确保以体面的强硬姿态，维持了最低程度的地缘现状。这也是这种“接近战争”的危机本身，行至“高潮”即渐近“落幕”，以及“逆势投资策略”高胜率——资本市场最恐慌的时刻反而容易形成“最佳买点”的背后机制。四、结语：“落幕”与“开篇”“高潮”下的“落幕”：综上，无论从本次俄乌危机中各方利益与博弈策略出发的逻辑推演：各方利益在当前时点已实现“均衡”，俄乌危机事件当前渐近最恐慌的“高潮”，本身也意味着随时可能“落幕”，因此，市场最为担心的全面战争与俄罗斯原油被强制裁风险大概率不会发生。还是从历次“接近战争”的大国博弈对市场的影响：在市场最恐慌之时，买入权益等风险资产，卖出原油的“逆向投资策略”总能取得明显超额收益的历史规律。均预示着：当前时间点股票等风险资产大概率已阶段性触底，故权益市场投资者无需悲观；反而当前情绪最为亢奋的原油等商品或阶段性见顶，投资者宜适度谨慎对待。“大变局时代”的“开篇”：虽然就本次俄乌危机本身而言，即将在“高潮”中迎来“落幕”，但是，从中长视角看，由于现有国际法体系与冷战后的地缘秩序在本次俄乌危机中，首次遭受了明确的冲击，因此，本次俄乌危机或预示了一个新的“大变局”时代的到来，即：大国间博弈不断加剧，国家间的不安全感与日俱增，安全在各国供应链中的权重越来越高于经济效率本身。从这个意义上看，当前俄乌危机既是“落幕”又是“开篇”，而“大变局时代”的“开篇”也或是俄乌危机下，资本市场的真正孕育的真正中长期投资机会所在：半导体上游国产材料、华为国产芯片所配套的软件生态系统、军工中的主机厂等国产替代与供应链安全的相关细分板块或将在新的“大变局”时代迎来更多的政策、资源、资金等的支持，值得投资者重点关注。风险提示：俄乌危机出现超预期“黑天鹅”，原油、股市等因为其他因素变化走势超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091799503,"gmtCreate":1643937397437,"gmtModify":1676533873687,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091799503","repostId":"1194596181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008763635,"gmtCreate":1641526066124,"gmtModify":1676533625720,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008763635","repostId":"2201709291","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2201709291","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1641525801,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2201709291?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-07 11:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"US Treasury yields rises rapidly, and global financial markets sound the alarm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201709291","media":"明晰笔谈","summary":"会议纪要对加息以及缩表的讨论增强了美联储紧缩预期，债券利率快速提升。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>The minutes of the December 2021 FOMC meeting (released on January 5, 2022) indicated the necessity of early rate hike and the possibility of early shrinking balance sheet in the context of steady recovery of economic fundamentals, continued high inflation, and limited disturbance from the epidemic. It heralds that the acceleration of the Fed's tightening may push US Treasury yields to rise rapidly, causing the stock market to face an adjustment. For my country's bond market, the Fed's policy tightening will lead to the convergence of the Sino-US interest rate spread, which may cause certain disturbances to the pace of foreign bond purchases, but it is difficult to change the trend of foreign capital increasing holdings.</b></p><p><b>The economic fundamentals are good, inflation is running at a high level, and the impact of the epidemic is limited, which has driven the Federal Reserve's rate hike, leading to a rapid increase in US Treasury yields.</b>The minutes of the FOMC meeting in December 2021 showed that the United States is facing a serious labor shortage problem and rapid wage growth, and the job market is tight. At the same time, the recovery trend of the U.S. labor market is relatively clear, and it is gradually approaching the Fed's maximum employment target; The persistence and increase of inflation levels have exceeded expectations, inflation risks have risen, hidden inflation risks have become apparent, and the need for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policy in advance has increased; The Omicron strain has increased economic uncertainty, but has not fundamentally changed the U.S. economic recovery.</p><p><b>The discussion of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet in the minutes of the meeting strengthened the Fed's tightening expectations, and bond interest rates rose rapidly.</b>In terms of rate hike, the Federal Reserve has raised the need to raise Federal Funds rate earlier and faster, while the market's expectations for the Fed's 2022 rate hike have increased, and expectations for the timing of the rate hike have also been significantly advanced. In terms of shrinking balance sheet, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting mentioned for the first time the appropriate conditions and timing of this round of shrinking balance sheet, indicating that this round of shrinking balance sheet may be advanced and the speed of shrinking balance sheet may be accelerated. If the Fed tightens faster than market expectations in the future, it will push up U.S. debt. It is expected that there will be three rate hike this year and the possibility of a shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>What impact will tightening monetary policy expectations have on the economy and financial markets?</b>Against the background of the current relatively loose monetary environment and relatively good economic recovery, coupled with the expectation of the Federal Reserve's gradual rate hike, it is expected that the pressure on the economy in the early stage of this round of rate hike will be limited. At present, due to factors such as the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, rising rate hike expectations, and inflation continuing to run at a high level in the short term, it is expected that US Treasury yields may rise rapidly in the near future. However, the rise of risk-free interest rate may suppress the price of risky assets, and the stock market is facing adjustment.</p><p><b>What impact will the rapid rise in U.S. bonds have on the domestic market?</b>If my country's exports are not weak in the first half of this year, the impact of the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy on the RMB exchange rate is expected to be limited. If the global supply chain improves and demand returns to normal in the second half of this year, my country's export substitution effect may weaken, and the tightening of overseas monetary policy is expected to become the dominant factor driving the trend of the RMB. The convergence of the interest rate differential between China and the United States may cause certain disturbances to the pace of foreign bond purchases, but it is difficult to change the trend of increasing holdings. The continued narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the United States may affect the window period of domestic monetary policy easing.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>On January 5, 2022, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the December 2021 FOMC meeting. The minutes of the meeting disclosed the participants' preliminary discussions on the appropriate conditions and timing of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, pointing out the necessity of early rate hike and the possibility of early shrinking balance sheet, which triggered the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rise rapidly that day and exceeded 1.7%, and the U.S. stock market collectively plunged. And how much upward pressure will the bond market bear on the accelerated tightening policy of the United States? Will it cause the stock market to fall sharply in the first quarter of this year? Will the Fed's tightening push the U.S. economy into a recovery or recession?</p><p><b>Economic Fundamentals Behind US Treasury yields's Rally</b></p><p><b>Tight job market, steady recovery provides conditions for rate hike</b></p><p><b>The United States is facing a serious labor shortage and rapid wage growth, and the job market is tight.</b>The minutes of the meeting pointed to near-record resignation rates and job vacancy rates, as well as signs of a sharp rise in wage growth, indicating that the U.S. labor market is tighter. The number of job vacancies in October was 11.033 million, the second highest since 2000, an increase of 57% from February 2020, and the number of job vacancies in October was 4.156 million more than the number of unemployed people. The difference between the job vacancy rate and the employment rate It has also further expanded, reaching a new high since 2015. The number of departures in October was 4.157 million, which is also at a historically high level. The gap in the U.S. labor market has widened, and it is difficult for companies to recruit workers, prompting companies to increase salaries to attract talents. Salaries have increased significantly. The average hourly wage in November was 4.8% year-on-year. The growth rate is at a historically high level and has shown a continuous upward trend since 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff36cc911b50f42df3a37659ddb2db1d\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The recovery trend of the U.S. labor market is relatively clear, and it is gradually approaching the Fed's maximum employment target.</b>The minutes of the meeting indicated that labor market conditions continued to improve, with steady employment growth in recent months and a further sharp decline in unemployment. Many participants believed that the U.S. economy has made rapid progress in achieving maximum employment goals, and some participants believed that labor market conditions have been largely consistent with maximum employment rates. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped from 4.6% in October to 4.2% in November, the lowest since February 2020, gradually approaching pre-epidemic levels; Although the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in November was lower than expected, the total number of non-farm payrolls has steadily increased since April 2020. The total number of non-farm payrolls in November was 148.6 million, 3.912 million lower than the level in February 2020 (2.56%); The labor force participation rate rose slightly from October to 61.8% in November. At present, inflation conditions in rate hike have been met, and the maximum employment target is expected to be reached as early as the first quarter of 2022, so rate hike may start as early as the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7930bea3bbed59f0a9d8010b40f497bc\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Rising inflation risks push Fed to faster tightening</b></p><p><b>The level of inflation has gradually risen, and the persistence and increase have exceeded expectations.</b>The minutes of the meeting mentioned that \"consumer price inflation as of October remained high, and inflationary pressures have widened in recent months.\" Since 2021, the mismatch between supply and demand growth has led to a rapid rise in inflation. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI has risen from 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November, the highest since 2000; The core PCE trend is similar to that of CPI, rising by 3.2% from December 2020 to November 2021. In November last year, it also reached the highest value since 2000, far exceeding the previous highest level; The inflation expectation indicator has maintained an upward trend since April 2020, and has shown a stable trend recently. FOMC attendees pointed to higher-than-expected inflation levels and higher inflation levels that were more persistent and comprehensive than expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/435c79fc9fdd05b8d8d0cc9e1eb3ee13\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The risk of inflation is rising, the hidden danger of inflation is apparent, and the need for the Fed to tighten its policy in advance has increased.</b>Participants pointed out that wage growth, global supply-side friction, rising housing costs, and new variants of the virus may push inflation to remain high. Rapid wage growth across the board caused by labor shortages may further push up inflation, and sustained real wage growth exceeding productivity growth may trigger a wage-price spiral. In addition, the inhibitory effect of inflation on consumer demand began to appear. In November, retail sales after inflation adjustment (actual value) was 13.31% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down. At the same time, the consumer confidence index declined, showing the inhibitory effect of high inflation on consumption. Against this backdrop, the Fed committed to addressing high inflationary pressures, and some participants pointed out that in some cases, it may be appropriate for the Fed to raise the target range of Federal Funds rate before the maximum employment rate is fully achieved, such as when the employment target and price stability target do not match economic developments, and a sharp and sustained increase in inflationary pressures and expectations may hinder the Fed from achieving its long-term goals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83335bae3ec0c7761738b5c6faef3b88\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The epidemic increases uncertainty in economic recovery but the impact is expected to be limited</b></p><p><b>The minutes of the meeting pointed out that the Omicron mutant strain may exacerbate frictions such as labor shortages and supply-side constraints, and will continue to pose downside risks to economic activities and upside risks to inflation.</b>The vacancy rates of the accommodation and catering industry and the arts, entertainment and leisure industry, which are seriously affected by the epidemic, will exceed 10% in 2021; The aggravation of the epidemic will lead to staff shortages, increase the labor gap, push up inflation and further restrict the supply side; The epidemic will also hinder people's consumption. Federal Reserve data showed that the week-on-week growth rate of credit card balances slowed down in December, or even showed negative growth, which was the first month-on-month decline since October 2020. Therefore, COVID-19 pandemic may slow down economic growth and push inflation upward.</p><p><b>The minutes of the meeting showed that the Omicron strain increased economic uncertainty, but did not fundamentally change the U.S. economic recovery.</b>Although the surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations and the risk of Omicron resistance will have an impact on the economy. However, the hospitalization rate and severe case rate of the Omicron mutant strain are low, and the rapid decline in the number of new cases in South Africa also indicates that the United States may usher in a period of weakening the epidemic in the first half of 2022. Many participants pointed out that the emergence of the Omicron variant has made the economic outlook more uncertain, but some participants indicated that they have not seen the new variant fundamentally change the path of economic recovery in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e44dcc8c6506de2a69782d00212755e\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Meeting minutes indicate that monetary policy may shift from loose to tight faster</b></p><p>Against this fundamental background, monetary policy has shifted from loose to tight to achieve the goal of maximum employment and price stability. On January 5, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the December 2021 FOMC meeting. The minutes of the meeting mentioned that the participants discussed the conditions of rate hike and proposed the appropriate conditions and timing for this round of shrinking balance sheet for the first time. The minutes also indicated the need for early rate hike. The necessity and the possibility of accelerating shrinking balance sheet indicate that the Federal Reserve may further accelerate monetary policy tightening.</p><p><b>Minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting hint at earlier Fed rate hike expectations</b></p><p><b>The Fed raised the need to raise Federal Funds rate earlier and faster.</b>The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed that participants generally pointed out that based on their personal views on the economy, labor market and inflation, it may be necessary to raise Federal Funds rate sooner and faster than previously expected. At the same time, some participants pointed out that in some cases, it may be appropriate for the Federal Reserve to raise the target range of Federal Funds rate before the maximum employment rate is fully realized. For example, when the employment target and price stability target do not match the economic development, and the sharp and sustained increase of inflationary pressure and inflation expectation may hinder the Federal Reserve from achieving its long-term goal, it means that there is the possibility of achieving the rate hike before the maximum employment target. Based on the December FOMC dot plot, 12 members believe that there will be at least three rate hike in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf4667fb33b9aedac76101448c9e96b\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>As the economy further improves, the economic environment in 2022 may trigger the rate hike of the Federal Reserve early.</b>In terms of economic forecasts at the December FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered GDP growth in 2021 and 2023 and raised GDP growth in 2022; The inflation levels in 2021 and 2022 have been significantly raised; The unemployment rate for 2021 and 2022 was lowered. The minutes pointed out that the main considerations for the increase in inflation are rising housing costs and rents, overall wage growth caused by labor shortages, and longer-lasting global supply-side frictions. At the same time, the minutes pointed out that many participants judged that if the current rate of improvement continues, the labor market will soon approach maximum employment. Against the background of high inflation, a positive and tight job market, and better economic growth prospects, the Federal Reserve may make an early rate hike.</p><p><b>The market's expectations for the Fed's 2022 rate hike have increased, and expectations for the timing of the rate hike have also been significantly advanced. This change in expectations has pushed US Treasury yields upward rapidly.</b>Market expectations for rate hike are heating up, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>According to the data, as of January 6, 2022, the market expects that the target range of Federal Funds rate in December 2022 will be mainly concentrated at 50-125bp, and at the end of September 2021, the market expects that the target range of interest rates at this time will be mainly 0-75bp; The market expects that the probability of a rate hike in March 2022 is 67.57%, far exceeding the market's expectation of 2.37% at the end of September last year. We believe that the Federal Reserve is more likely to conduct its first rate hike in the first quarter of 2022. The Federal Reserve may conduct three rate hike in 2022. In addition, the recent strengthening of market expectations for rate hike has caused the 10-year Treasury Bond to rise by 5bp and exceed 1.7%. We expect interest rates to rise further rapidly in the near future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/496453dbe31d8c8938a958e04193e467\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting mention this round of shrinking balance sheet for the first time</b></p><p><b>Historically, shrinking balance sheet usually follows an interest rate adjustment or rate hike, and the shrinking balance sheet cycle is 1 to 2 years.</b>Looking back at history, the Federal Reserve has conducted seven shrinking balance sheet since 1920. The shrinking balance sheet cycle is generally 1 to 2 years, with a scale of 2% to 15%, and is usually accompanied by interest rate adjustments or after a rate hike. Shrinking balance sheet in 2017 was after multiple rate hike, and the start of shrinking balance sheet was about two years away from the first rate hike, and the shrinking balance sheet cycle was two years and lasted for a long time. In 2017, the Federal Reserve set a maximum limit for shrinking balance sheet to reduce its holdings. The shrinking balance sheet process is transparent and basically in line with the plan. In the context of rapid interest rate rise, it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet to avoid excessive market fluctuations.</p><p><b>The minutes of the Fed meeting mentioned the discussion of this round of shrinking balance sheet for the first time, and the Fed's future tightening faster than market expectations.</b>The minutes indicated that the Federal Reserve meeting in December discussed the appropriate conditions and timing for this round of balance sheet reduction for the first time, and almost all participants believed that it might be appropriate to start the balance sheet decisive battle at some point after the first increase in Federal Funds rate's target range; Participants also pointed out that this shrinking balance sheet needs to pay attention to the differences between the current economic situation and the previous shrinking balance sheet background, and the differences are mainly reflected in the current better economic prospects, higher inflation, tighter labor market and larger balance sheet, so the pace of shrinking balance sheet may accelerate. In addition, participants pointed out that the weighted average maturity of the Fed's Treasury Bond holdings is currently shorter than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet, so if the previous shrinking balance sheet approach is followed, the reinvestment of maturing Treasury Bond and the principal payment of institutional MBS may also cause the balance sheet to shrink faster than last time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb835d803104dcc898f0d27e64a33f90\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet process will be open and transparent, and there is the possibility of shrinking balance sheet this year.</b>Regarding shrinking balance sheet's approach, participants said that based on the composition of the assets held by the Federal Reserve, shrinking balance sheet's principle is consistent with before, that is, the asset holdings of the Federal Reserve should mainly consist of long-term Treasury Bond. To achieve this combination, some attendees preferred either reinvesting the principal of institutional MBS in U.S. Treasury Bond relatively quickly or letting institutional MBS disappear from the balance sheet faster than U.S. Treasury Bond. Like the last shrinking balance sheet, the upper limit of the reduction will be set this time to ensure that the reduction speed can be predicted. Based on this, we believe that there is the possibility of shrinking balance sheet in 2022, and shrinking balance sheet may start as early as the end of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc15b0c687bbf8fe9f49e89b5d6d7a0c\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What impact will tightening monetary policy expectations have on the economy and financial markets?</b></p><p><b>Will the economy fall into recession as Fed tightening accelerates and rate hike advances?</b>The current economic activity and employment indicators continue to improve, the economy is in a recovery trend and has a certain degree of resilience, the inflation level is at a high level, and the overall monetary environment is very loose. Therefore, the possibility of rate hike leading to economic recession is low. Moreover, the Fed's rate hike process is generally a gradual rate hike, and the current interest rate level is close to the zero boundary, so it is expected that in the early stage of this round of rate hike, the pressure on the economy will be limited. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that if the Fed's expectation management is not sufficient enough, communication with the market is insufficient, rate hike or shrinking balance sheet are too fast, or it may pose certain downside risks to the economy.</p><p><b>What impact will the strong superposition of advance rate hike expectations and advance shrinking balance sheet expectations have on US Treasury yields?</b>At present, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening speed exceeds market expectations, rate hike expectations are rising, and market inflation will continue at a high level in the short term. It is expected that there will be greater upward pressure on the US Treasury yields in the near future, and it will rise rapidly in an all-round way in the near future. However, the spread of the Omicron mutant strain may slow down economic growth expectations, the superimposed contradiction between supply and demand has weakened, and inflation expectations have been suppressed. It is expected that the 10-year U.S. bond yield may rise to 1.90%.</p><p><b>Under the influence of the Fed's tightening monetary policy, will U.S. stocks fall significantly in the first quarter of this year?</b>Rate hike expectations are enhanced, the timing of shrinking balance sheet may be greatly advanced, and the speed of shrinking balance sheet may be faster than before indicate that the Fed's monetary policy tightening will be accelerated, and the risk-free interest rate may enter a rapid upward stage, which will suppress the price of risky assets and the stock market will face adjustment. On the other hand, supply-side restrictions are expected to be lifted in the future, which may promote economic recovery and provide certain support for the stock market.</p><p><b>What impact will the rapid rise in U.S. bonds have on the domestic market?</b></p><p><b>Rate hike is expected to grow stronger or inject upward momentum into the US Dollar Index. In the short term, the RMB may strengthen two-way fluctuations under the combination of \"strong exports + strong US dollar\".</b>At present, the RMB remains strong under the support of the strong willingness to settle foreign exchange before the holiday. It is expected that as the willingness to settle foreign exchange slows down after the holiday, its support for the RMB will also weaken. Although the Federal Reserve has accelerated tightening or pushed the US Dollar Index upward, if exports are not weak in the first half of this year, the RMB exchange rate may still be stable at a certain central level, and the impact will be relatively limited. If the global supply chain improves in the second half of this year, demand returns to normal, and developing economies such as ASEAN gradually recover, then my country's export substitution effect may weaken, and overseas tightening expectations will become the dominant factor driving the trend of the RMB. In this case, if the market's expectation of tightening is still in the process of price in, the RMB will be under pressure; If the market has completed the pricing of tightening expectations, and the gap between Europe and the United States in economic fundamentals and monetary policies converges, it will lead to a lack of motivation for the US Dollar Index to continue to rise, which may have little impact on the RMB exchange rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67e9b529b1af9cb6a2958ea7d21423e2\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The convergence of the interest rate differential between China and the United States may cause certain disturbances to the pace of foreign bond purchases, but it is difficult to change the trend of increasing holdings. The continued narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the United States may affect the window period of domestic monetary policy easing.</b>From a trading perspective, the current 10-year U.S. bond yield has risen rapidly and exceeded 1.7%, and the United States is in the process of gradually tightening monetary policy; However, the yield of 10-year China bonds fluctuated at a low level due to loose expectations. For foreign investors, my country's relatively loose monetary policy and abundant liquidity environment are more favorable to Chinese bonds; From the perspective of stability, the RMB exchange rate remains stable as a whole, the fluctuation range of ChinaBond yields is small, and the correlation between Chinese bond assets and other global bond assets is small, which can meet the needs of decentralized allocation of foreign capital. Therefore, even if the current interest rate differential between China and the United States has narrowed to about 110bps (data on January 5), RMB bond assets are still attractive to foreign investors. The convergence of the interest rate differential between China and the United States may cause some disturbance to the pace of foreign bond purchases, but it is difficult to change the trend of increasing holdings. However, the continued narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States may affect the window period for domestic monetary policy easing. In the post-epidemic cycle, my country's monetary policy has maintained a certain degree of independence, provided that the recovery cycles between my country and overseas economies are misaligned. The relative stability of the interest rate spread and the strong resilience of the RMB exchange rate. As the expectation of accelerating tightening of U.S. monetary policy becomes stronger, the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrows rapidly, and the RMB exchange rate may be more under upward pressure from the US Dollar Index in the future, which will pose more challenges to the window period of my country's monetary policy easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24614f84f60c1873eebb26906673e56\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"mxbt","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Treasury yields rises rapidly, and global financial markets sound the alarm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Treasury yields rises rapidly, and global financial markets sound the alarm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">明晰笔谈</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-07 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>The minutes of the December 2021 FOMC meeting (released on January 5, 2022) indicated the necessity of early rate hike and the possibility of early shrinking balance sheet in the context of steady recovery of economic fundamentals, continued high inflation, and limited disturbance from the epidemic. It heralds that the acceleration of the Fed's tightening may push US Treasury yields to rise rapidly, causing the stock market to face an adjustment. For my country's bond market, the Fed's policy tightening will lead to the convergence of the Sino-US interest rate spread, which may cause certain disturbances to the pace of foreign bond purchases, but it is difficult to change the trend of foreign capital increasing holdings.</b></p><p><b>The economic fundamentals are good, inflation is running at a high level, and the impact of the epidemic is limited, which has driven the Federal Reserve's rate hike, leading to a rapid increase in US Treasury yields.</b>The minutes of the FOMC meeting in December 2021 showed that the United States is facing a serious labor shortage problem and rapid wage growth, and the job market is tight. At the same time, the recovery trend of the U.S. labor market is relatively clear, and it is gradually approaching the Fed's maximum employment target; The persistence and increase of inflation levels have exceeded expectations, inflation risks have risen, hidden inflation risks have become apparent, and the need for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policy in advance has increased; The Omicron strain has increased economic uncertainty, but has not fundamentally changed the U.S. economic recovery.</p><p><b>The discussion of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet in the minutes of the meeting strengthened the Fed's tightening expectations, and bond interest rates rose rapidly.</b>In terms of rate hike, the Federal Reserve has raised the need to raise Federal Funds rate earlier and faster, while the market's expectations for the Fed's 2022 rate hike have increased, and expectations for the timing of the rate hike have also been significantly advanced. In terms of shrinking balance sheet, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting mentioned for the first time the appropriate conditions and timing of this round of shrinking balance sheet, indicating that this round of shrinking balance sheet may be advanced and the speed of shrinking balance sheet may be accelerated. If the Fed tightens faster than market expectations in the future, it will push up U.S. debt. It is expected that there will be three rate hike this year and the possibility of a shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><b>What impact will tightening monetary policy expectations have on the economy and financial markets?</b>Against the background of the current relatively loose monetary environment and relatively good economic recovery, coupled with the expectation of the Federal Reserve's gradual rate hike, it is expected that the pressure on the economy in the early stage of this round of rate hike will be limited. At present, due to factors such as the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, rising rate hike expectations, and inflation continuing to run at a high level in the short term, it is expected that US Treasury yields may rise rapidly in the near future. However, the rise of risk-free interest rate may suppress the price of risky assets, and the stock market is facing adjustment.</p><p><b>What impact will the rapid rise in U.S. bonds have on the domestic market?</b>If my country's exports are not weak in the first half of this year, the impact of the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy on the RMB exchange rate is expected to be limited. If the global supply chain improves and demand returns to normal in the second half of this year, my country's export substitution effect may weaken, and the tightening of overseas monetary policy is expected to become the dominant factor driving the trend of the RMB. The convergence of the interest rate differential between China and the United States may cause certain disturbances to the pace of foreign bond purchases, but it is difficult to change the trend of increasing holdings. The continued narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the United States may affect the window period of domestic monetary policy easing.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>On January 5, 2022, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the December 2021 FOMC meeting. The minutes of the meeting disclosed the participants' preliminary discussions on the appropriate conditions and timing of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, pointing out the necessity of early rate hike and the possibility of early shrinking balance sheet, which triggered the 10-year U.S. bond yield to rise rapidly that day and exceeded 1.7%, and the U.S. stock market collectively plunged. And how much upward pressure will the bond market bear on the accelerated tightening policy of the United States? Will it cause the stock market to fall sharply in the first quarter of this year? Will the Fed's tightening push the U.S. economy into a recovery or recession?</p><p><b>Economic Fundamentals Behind US Treasury yields's Rally</b></p><p><b>Tight job market, steady recovery provides conditions for rate hike</b></p><p><b>The United States is facing a serious labor shortage and rapid wage growth, and the job market is tight.</b>The minutes of the meeting pointed to near-record resignation rates and job vacancy rates, as well as signs of a sharp rise in wage growth, indicating that the U.S. labor market is tighter. The number of job vacancies in October was 11.033 million, the second highest since 2000, an increase of 57% from February 2020, and the number of job vacancies in October was 4.156 million more than the number of unemployed people. The difference between the job vacancy rate and the employment rate It has also further expanded, reaching a new high since 2015. The number of departures in October was 4.157 million, which is also at a historically high level. The gap in the U.S. labor market has widened, and it is difficult for companies to recruit workers, prompting companies to increase salaries to attract talents. Salaries have increased significantly. The average hourly wage in November was 4.8% year-on-year. The growth rate is at a historically high level and has shown a continuous upward trend since 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff36cc911b50f42df3a37659ddb2db1d\" tg-width=\"867\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The recovery trend of the U.S. labor market is relatively clear, and it is gradually approaching the Fed's maximum employment target.</b>The minutes of the meeting indicated that labor market conditions continued to improve, with steady employment growth in recent months and a further sharp decline in unemployment. Many participants believed that the U.S. economy has made rapid progress in achieving maximum employment goals, and some participants believed that labor market conditions have been largely consistent with maximum employment rates. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped from 4.6% in October to 4.2% in November, the lowest since February 2020, gradually approaching pre-epidemic levels; Although the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in November was lower than expected, the total number of non-farm payrolls has steadily increased since April 2020. The total number of non-farm payrolls in November was 148.6 million, 3.912 million lower than the level in February 2020 (2.56%); The labor force participation rate rose slightly from October to 61.8% in November. At present, inflation conditions in rate hike have been met, and the maximum employment target is expected to be reached as early as the first quarter of 2022, so rate hike may start as early as the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7930bea3bbed59f0a9d8010b40f497bc\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Rising inflation risks push Fed to faster tightening</b></p><p><b>The level of inflation has gradually risen, and the persistence and increase have exceeded expectations.</b>The minutes of the meeting mentioned that \"consumer price inflation as of October remained high, and inflationary pressures have widened in recent months.\" Since 2021, the mismatch between supply and demand growth has led to a rapid rise in inflation. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI has risen from 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November, the highest since 2000; The core PCE trend is similar to that of CPI, rising by 3.2% from December 2020 to November 2021. In November last year, it also reached the highest value since 2000, far exceeding the previous highest level; The inflation expectation indicator has maintained an upward trend since April 2020, and has shown a stable trend recently. FOMC attendees pointed to higher-than-expected inflation levels and higher inflation levels that were more persistent and comprehensive than expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/435c79fc9fdd05b8d8d0cc9e1eb3ee13\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The risk of inflation is rising, the hidden danger of inflation is apparent, and the need for the Fed to tighten its policy in advance has increased.</b>Participants pointed out that wage growth, global supply-side friction, rising housing costs, and new variants of the virus may push inflation to remain high. Rapid wage growth across the board caused by labor shortages may further push up inflation, and sustained real wage growth exceeding productivity growth may trigger a wage-price spiral. In addition, the inhibitory effect of inflation on consumer demand began to appear. In November, retail sales after inflation adjustment (actual value) was 13.31% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down. At the same time, the consumer confidence index declined, showing the inhibitory effect of high inflation on consumption. Against this backdrop, the Fed committed to addressing high inflationary pressures, and some participants pointed out that in some cases, it may be appropriate for the Fed to raise the target range of Federal Funds rate before the maximum employment rate is fully achieved, such as when the employment target and price stability target do not match economic developments, and a sharp and sustained increase in inflationary pressures and expectations may hinder the Fed from achieving its long-term goals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83335bae3ec0c7761738b5c6faef3b88\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The epidemic increases uncertainty in economic recovery but the impact is expected to be limited</b></p><p><b>The minutes of the meeting pointed out that the Omicron mutant strain may exacerbate frictions such as labor shortages and supply-side constraints, and will continue to pose downside risks to economic activities and upside risks to inflation.</b>The vacancy rates of the accommodation and catering industry and the arts, entertainment and leisure industry, which are seriously affected by the epidemic, will exceed 10% in 2021; The aggravation of the epidemic will lead to staff shortages, increase the labor gap, push up inflation and further restrict the supply side; The epidemic will also hinder people's consumption. Federal Reserve data showed that the week-on-week growth rate of credit card balances slowed down in December, or even showed negative growth, which was the first month-on-month decline since October 2020. Therefore, COVID-19 pandemic may slow down economic growth and push inflation upward.</p><p><b>The minutes of the meeting showed that the Omicron strain increased economic uncertainty, but did not fundamentally change the U.S. economic recovery.</b>Although the surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations and the risk of Omicron resistance will have an impact on the economy. However, the hospitalization rate and severe case rate of the Omicron mutant strain are low, and the rapid decline in the number of new cases in South Africa also indicates that the United States may usher in a period of weakening the epidemic in the first half of 2022. Many participants pointed out that the emergence of the Omicron variant has made the economic outlook more uncertain, but some participants indicated that they have not seen the new variant fundamentally change the path of economic recovery in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e44dcc8c6506de2a69782d00212755e\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Meeting minutes indicate that monetary policy may shift from loose to tight faster</b></p><p>Against this fundamental background, monetary policy has shifted from loose to tight to achieve the goal of maximum employment and price stability. On January 5, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the December 2021 FOMC meeting. The minutes of the meeting mentioned that the participants discussed the conditions of rate hike and proposed the appropriate conditions and timing for this round of shrinking balance sheet for the first time. The minutes also indicated the need for early rate hike. The necessity and the possibility of accelerating shrinking balance sheet indicate that the Federal Reserve may further accelerate monetary policy tightening.</p><p><b>Minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting hint at earlier Fed rate hike expectations</b></p><p><b>The Fed raised the need to raise Federal Funds rate earlier and faster.</b>The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed that participants generally pointed out that based on their personal views on the economy, labor market and inflation, it may be necessary to raise Federal Funds rate sooner and faster than previously expected. At the same time, some participants pointed out that in some cases, it may be appropriate for the Federal Reserve to raise the target range of Federal Funds rate before the maximum employment rate is fully realized. For example, when the employment target and price stability target do not match the economic development, and the sharp and sustained increase of inflationary pressure and inflation expectation may hinder the Federal Reserve from achieving its long-term goal, it means that there is the possibility of achieving the rate hike before the maximum employment target. Based on the December FOMC dot plot, 12 members believe that there will be at least three rate hike in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf4667fb33b9aedac76101448c9e96b\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>As the economy further improves, the economic environment in 2022 may trigger the rate hike of the Federal Reserve early.</b>In terms of economic forecasts at the December FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered GDP growth in 2021 and 2023 and raised GDP growth in 2022; The inflation levels in 2021 and 2022 have been significantly raised; The unemployment rate for 2021 and 2022 was lowered. The minutes pointed out that the main considerations for the increase in inflation are rising housing costs and rents, overall wage growth caused by labor shortages, and longer-lasting global supply-side frictions. At the same time, the minutes pointed out that many participants judged that if the current rate of improvement continues, the labor market will soon approach maximum employment. Against the background of high inflation, a positive and tight job market, and better economic growth prospects, the Federal Reserve may make an early rate hike.</p><p><b>The market's expectations for the Fed's 2022 rate hike have increased, and expectations for the timing of the rate hike have also been significantly advanced. This change in expectations has pushed US Treasury yields upward rapidly.</b>Market expectations for rate hike are heating up, according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>According to the data, as of January 6, 2022, the market expects that the target range of Federal Funds rate in December 2022 will be mainly concentrated at 50-125bp, and at the end of September 2021, the market expects that the target range of interest rates at this time will be mainly 0-75bp; The market expects that the probability of a rate hike in March 2022 is 67.57%, far exceeding the market's expectation of 2.37% at the end of September last year. We believe that the Federal Reserve is more likely to conduct its first rate hike in the first quarter of 2022. The Federal Reserve may conduct three rate hike in 2022. In addition, the recent strengthening of market expectations for rate hike has caused the 10-year Treasury Bond to rise by 5bp and exceed 1.7%. We expect interest rates to rise further rapidly in the near future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/496453dbe31d8c8938a958e04193e467\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting mention this round of shrinking balance sheet for the first time</b></p><p><b>Historically, shrinking balance sheet usually follows an interest rate adjustment or rate hike, and the shrinking balance sheet cycle is 1 to 2 years.</b>Looking back at history, the Federal Reserve has conducted seven shrinking balance sheet since 1920. The shrinking balance sheet cycle is generally 1 to 2 years, with a scale of 2% to 15%, and is usually accompanied by interest rate adjustments or after a rate hike. Shrinking balance sheet in 2017 was after multiple rate hike, and the start of shrinking balance sheet was about two years away from the first rate hike, and the shrinking balance sheet cycle was two years and lasted for a long time. In 2017, the Federal Reserve set a maximum limit for shrinking balance sheet to reduce its holdings. The shrinking balance sheet process is transparent and basically in line with the plan. In the context of rapid interest rate rise, it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet to avoid excessive market fluctuations.</p><p><b>The minutes of the Fed meeting mentioned the discussion of this round of shrinking balance sheet for the first time, and the Fed's future tightening faster than market expectations.</b>The minutes indicated that the Federal Reserve meeting in December discussed the appropriate conditions and timing for this round of balance sheet reduction for the first time, and almost all participants believed that it might be appropriate to start the balance sheet decisive battle at some point after the first increase in Federal Funds rate's target range; Participants also pointed out that this shrinking balance sheet needs to pay attention to the differences between the current economic situation and the previous shrinking balance sheet background, and the differences are mainly reflected in the current better economic prospects, higher inflation, tighter labor market and larger balance sheet, so the pace of shrinking balance sheet may accelerate. In addition, participants pointed out that the weighted average maturity of the Fed's Treasury Bond holdings is currently shorter than at the beginning of the last shrinking balance sheet, so if the previous shrinking balance sheet approach is followed, the reinvestment of maturing Treasury Bond and the principal payment of institutional MBS may also cause the balance sheet to shrink faster than last time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb835d803104dcc898f0d27e64a33f90\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The shrinking balance sheet process will be open and transparent, and there is the possibility of shrinking balance sheet this year.</b>Regarding shrinking balance sheet's approach, participants said that based on the composition of the assets held by the Federal Reserve, shrinking balance sheet's principle is consistent with before, that is, the asset holdings of the Federal Reserve should mainly consist of long-term Treasury Bond. To achieve this combination, some attendees preferred either reinvesting the principal of institutional MBS in U.S. Treasury Bond relatively quickly or letting institutional MBS disappear from the balance sheet faster than U.S. Treasury Bond. Like the last shrinking balance sheet, the upper limit of the reduction will be set this time to ensure that the reduction speed can be predicted. Based on this, we believe that there is the possibility of shrinking balance sheet in 2022, and shrinking balance sheet may start as early as the end of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc15b0c687bbf8fe9f49e89b5d6d7a0c\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What impact will tightening monetary policy expectations have on the economy and financial markets?</b></p><p><b>Will the economy fall into recession as Fed tightening accelerates and rate hike advances?</b>The current economic activity and employment indicators continue to improve, the economy is in a recovery trend and has a certain degree of resilience, the inflation level is at a high level, and the overall monetary environment is very loose. Therefore, the possibility of rate hike leading to economic recession is low. Moreover, the Fed's rate hike process is generally a gradual rate hike, and the current interest rate level is close to the zero boundary, so it is expected that in the early stage of this round of rate hike, the pressure on the economy will be limited. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that if the Fed's expectation management is not sufficient enough, communication with the market is insufficient, rate hike or shrinking balance sheet are too fast, or it may pose certain downside risks to the economy.</p><p><b>What impact will the strong superposition of advance rate hike expectations and advance shrinking balance sheet expectations have on US Treasury yields?</b>At present, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening speed exceeds market expectations, rate hike expectations are rising, and market inflation will continue at a high level in the short term. It is expected that there will be greater upward pressure on the US Treasury yields in the near future, and it will rise rapidly in an all-round way in the near future. However, the spread of the Omicron mutant strain may slow down economic growth expectations, the superimposed contradiction between supply and demand has weakened, and inflation expectations have been suppressed. It is expected that the 10-year U.S. bond yield may rise to 1.90%.</p><p><b>Under the influence of the Fed's tightening monetary policy, will U.S. stocks fall significantly in the first quarter of this year?</b>Rate hike expectations are enhanced, the timing of shrinking balance sheet may be greatly advanced, and the speed of shrinking balance sheet may be faster than before indicate that the Fed's monetary policy tightening will be accelerated, and the risk-free interest rate may enter a rapid upward stage, which will suppress the price of risky assets and the stock market will face adjustment. On the other hand, supply-side restrictions are expected to be lifted in the future, which may promote economic recovery and provide certain support for the stock market.</p><p><b>What impact will the rapid rise in U.S. bonds have on the domestic market?</b></p><p><b>Rate hike is expected to grow stronger or inject upward momentum into the US Dollar Index. In the short term, the RMB may strengthen two-way fluctuations under the combination of \"strong exports + strong US dollar\".</b>At present, the RMB remains strong under the support of the strong willingness to settle foreign exchange before the holiday. It is expected that as the willingness to settle foreign exchange slows down after the holiday, its support for the RMB will also weaken. Although the Federal Reserve has accelerated tightening or pushed the US Dollar Index upward, if exports are not weak in the first half of this year, the RMB exchange rate may still be stable at a certain central level, and the impact will be relatively limited. If the global supply chain improves in the second half of this year, demand returns to normal, and developing economies such as ASEAN gradually recover, then my country's export substitution effect may weaken, and overseas tightening expectations will become the dominant factor driving the trend of the RMB. In this case, if the market's expectation of tightening is still in the process of price in, the RMB will be under pressure; If the market has completed the pricing of tightening expectations, and the gap between Europe and the United States in economic fundamentals and monetary policies converges, it will lead to a lack of motivation for the US Dollar Index to continue to rise, which may have little impact on the RMB exchange rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67e9b529b1af9cb6a2958ea7d21423e2\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The convergence of the interest rate differential between China and the United States may cause certain disturbances to the pace of foreign bond purchases, but it is difficult to change the trend of increasing holdings. The continued narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the United States may affect the window period of domestic monetary policy easing.</b>From a trading perspective, the current 10-year U.S. bond yield has risen rapidly and exceeded 1.7%, and the United States is in the process of gradually tightening monetary policy; However, the yield of 10-year China bonds fluctuated at a low level due to loose expectations. For foreign investors, my country's relatively loose monetary policy and abundant liquidity environment are more favorable to Chinese bonds; From the perspective of stability, the RMB exchange rate remains stable as a whole, the fluctuation range of ChinaBond yields is small, and the correlation between Chinese bond assets and other global bond assets is small, which can meet the needs of decentralized allocation of foreign capital. Therefore, even if the current interest rate differential between China and the United States has narrowed to about 110bps (data on January 5), RMB bond assets are still attractive to foreign investors. The convergence of the interest rate differential between China and the United States may cause some disturbance to the pace of foreign bond purchases, but it is difficult to change the trend of increasing holdings. However, the continued narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States may affect the window period for domestic monetary policy easing. In the post-epidemic cycle, my country's monetary policy has maintained a certain degree of independence, provided that the recovery cycles between my country and overseas economies are misaligned. The relative stability of the interest rate spread and the strong resilience of the RMB exchange rate. As the expectation of accelerating tightening of U.S. monetary policy becomes stronger, the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrows rapidly, and the RMB exchange rate may be more under upward pressure from the US Dollar Index in the future, which will pose more challenges to the window period of my country's monetary policy easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24614f84f60c1873eebb26906673e56\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5AT6H4uaSQPjfVq4PfjbtA\">明晰笔谈</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5AT6H4uaSQPjfVq4PfjbtA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201709291","content_text":"核心观点2021年12月FOMC会议纪要（2022年1月5日发布）表明了在经济基本面稳步复苏、通胀持续高位运行、疫情扰动有限的背景下，提前加息的必要性以及提前缩表的可能性。其预示的美联储紧缩加速或将推动美债利率快速提升，导致股市面临调整。对我国债市而言，美联储政策紧缩会导致的中美利差收敛，或对外资购债的节奏形成一定扰动，但难改外资增持趋势。经济基本面向好、通胀高位运行、疫情冲击有限推动美联储加息，导致美债利率快速提升。2021年12月FOMC会议纪要表明美国面临较严重的劳动力短缺问题以及工资快速增长，就业市场态势偏紧，同时美国劳动力市场复苏态势较为明确，在逐步接近美联储最大就业目标；通货膨胀水平持久性与上升幅度超预期，通胀风险上行，通胀隐患显化，美联储紧缩政策提前的必要性增强；Omicron毒株增加了经济不确定性，但未从根本上改变美国经济复苏态势。会议纪要对加息以及缩表的讨论增强了美联储紧缩预期，债券利率快速提升。加息方面，美联储提出更早、更快地提高联邦基金利率的必要性，而市场对于美联储2022年加息预期有所上升，并对加息时点的预期也大幅提前。缩表方面，美联储会议纪要首次提及这一轮缩表的适当条件和时机，表明本轮缩表或将提前并且缩表速度或将加快。若美联储未来紧缩速度超市场预期，将推升美债上行，预计今年加息三次并存在缩表的可能性。紧缩货币政策预期对经济、金融市场影响几何？在目前较宽松的货币环境、较良好的经济复苏态势的背景下，叠加美联储渐进式加息的预期，预计本轮加息初期对经济造成的压力有限。当前美联储货币政策加快紧缩、加息预期升温、通胀仍将短期持续高位运行等因素下，预计美债利率近期或全面快速上行。而无风险利率上升或对风险资产价格形成压制，股市面临调整。美债快速上行对国内市场影响几何？若今年上半年我国出口不弱，美联储紧缩货币政策对人民币汇率影响预计较为有限。若今年下半年全球供应链改善，需求回归常态，那么我国出口替代效应或将减弱，海外货币政策收紧预期将成为推动人民币走势的主导因素。中美利差收敛或对外资购债的节奏形成一定扰动，但难改增持趋势，中美利差持续收窄或会影响到国内货币政策宽松的窗口期。正文2022年1月5日美联储发布2021年12月FOMC会议纪要，会议纪要披露了与会人员对于加息以及缩表适当条件和时点的初步讨论，指出提前加息的必要性以及提前缩表的可能性，引发10年期美债收益率当天快速上行并突破1.7%，美股市场集体跳水。而美国加速紧缩政策究竟会导致债市承担多大的上行压力？又是否会导致股市于今年第一季度大幅下跌？美联储紧缩会推动美国经济进入复苏还是衰退态势？美债利率反弹背后的经济基本面就业市场偏紧、稳步复苏为加息提供条件美国面临较严重的劳动力短缺问题以及工资快速增长，就业市场态势偏紧。会议纪要指出接近创纪录的辞职率和职位空缺率，以及工资增长大幅上升的迹象表明美国劳动力市场较为紧张。10月职位空缺数为1103.3万人，为2000年以来次高值，较2020年2月增加了57%，并且10月的职位空缺数比失业人数多415.6万人，职位空缺率与雇佣率差值也进一步扩大，为2015年以来新高。10月离职人数为415.7万人，也处于历史较高水平。美国劳动力市场缺口扩大，公司招工难促使公司提高薪酬以吸引人才，薪酬大幅增长，11月平均每小时工资同比 4.8%，增速处于历史较高位且2021年以来呈现持续上升趋势。美国劳动力市场复苏态势较为明确，在逐步接近美联储最大就业目标。会议纪要表明劳动力市场状况继续改善，近几个月就业稳定增长，失业率进一步大幅下降，许多与会者认为美国经济在实现最大就业目标方面取得了快速进展，一些与会者认为劳动力市场状况已经在很大程度上与最大就业率相一致。美国失业率从10月4.6%下降至11月4.2%，为2020年2月以来最低值，逐渐接近疫情前水平；美国11月非农就业新增人数虽不及预期，但非农就业总人数自2020年4月以来稳步上升，非农就业总人数11月为1.486亿，比2020年2月水平低391.2万人（2.56%）；劳动参与率从10月开始小幅上升至11月61.8%。目前加息的通胀条件已达到，预计最大就业目标最早于2022年第一季度达到，因此加息最早或在2022年第一季度开始。通胀风险上行推动美联储加快紧缩通货膨胀水平逐步攀升，持久性与上升幅度超预期。会议纪要提及“截至10月的消费者物价通胀率仍然居高不下，近几个月通胀压力有所扩大”。2021年以来，供需增速不匹配导致通胀水平急速上升，CPI同比增速从1月1.4%水平上升至11月6.8%，创2000年以来最高值；核心PCE趋势与CPI类似，2020年12月至2021年11月上升3.2%，去年11月同样达到2000年以来最高值，远超过往最高值水平；通胀预期指标自2020年4月保持上升趋势，近期呈现平稳态势。FOMC与会者指出通胀水平比预期更高且高通胀水平比预期更持久、更全面。通胀风险上行，通胀隐患显化，美联储紧缩政策提前的必要性增强。与会人员指出工资增长、全球供给侧摩擦、住房成本上涨、病毒的新变种或将推动通胀保持高位水平。劳动力短缺导致的工资全面快速增长，可能会进一步推动通胀水平上升，持续的实际工资增长超过生产率增长可能会引发薪酬与物价螺旋上升。此外，通胀对于消费需求抑制作用开始显现，11月零售额经通胀调整后（实际值）同比为13.31%，增幅趋缓，同时消费信心指数下滑，表现出高通胀水平对消费的抑制作用。在此背景下，美联储承诺解决高通胀压力，并且一些与会者指出，在一些情况下，美联储在最大就业率完全实现之前提高联邦基金利率的目标区间可能是合适的，例如当就业目标和物价稳定目标与经济发展情况不匹配，并且通胀压力和通胀预期大幅持续上升可能妨碍美联储实现其长期目标时。疫情增大经济复苏不确定性但预计影响有限会议纪要指出Omicron变异毒株或将加剧劳动力短缺、供给侧受限等摩擦，将继续对经济活动构成下行风险，对通货膨胀构成上行风险。受疫情影响严重的住宿餐饮业与艺术、娱乐和休闲业空缺率均在2021年突破10%；疫情加重将导致工作人员短缺，增大劳动力缺口，推升通胀同时进一步限制供给侧；疫情也会阻碍人们消费，美联储数据显示信用卡余额12月周环比增速放缓，甚至出现负增长，是自2020年10月以来首次出现环比下降。因此新冠疫情或将放缓经济增长，推动通胀上行。会议纪要表明Omicron毒株增加了经济不确定性，但未从根本上改变美国经济复苏态势。虽然新冠病例和住院人数的激增以及Omicron存在耐药性的风险将对于经济存在冲击。但Omicron变异毒株住院率、重症率较低，同时南非新增病例数快速下降也预示着2022年上半年美国或将迎来疫情减弱期。许多与会人员指出Omicron变体的出现使经济前景更加不确定，但一些与会人员表明他们还没有看到新的变体从根本上改变了美国的经济复苏之路。会议纪要预示货币政策或将更快地由松转紧在此基本面背景下，货币政策由松转紧以实现最大就业和价格稳定的目标。2022年1月5日美联储公布2021年12月FOMC会议纪要，会议纪要提及与会者讨论了加息的条件并首次提出本轮缩表适当的条件和时机，纪要也表明了提前加息的必要性以及加快缩表的可能性，预示着美联储或将进一步加快货币政策紧缩。美联储12月会议纪要暗示美联储加息预期提前美联储提出更早、更快地提高联邦基金利率的必要性。美联储去年12月的会议纪要表明与会者普遍指出基于他们对经济、劳动力市场和通胀的个人看法，可能有必要比先前预期更早、更快地提高联邦基金利率。同时，一些与会者指出，在有些情况下，美联储在最大就业率完全实现之前提高联邦基金利率的目标区间可能是适当的，例如当就业目标和物价稳定目标与经济发展情况不匹配，并且通胀压力和通胀预期大幅持续上升可能妨碍美联储实现其长期目标时，意味着存在没有实现最大化就业目标前加息的可能。而基于12月FOMC点阵图显示，12名委员认为2022年至少加息三次。随着经济进一步改善，2022年经济环境或将提早触发美联储加息。12月FOMC会议经济预测方面，美联储下调了2021年和2023年的GDP增长，上调了2022年的GDP增长；较大幅度上调了2021年、2022年的通胀水平；下调了2021年以及2022年失业率。纪要指出通胀上调主要考量因素为住房成本和租金上涨，劳动力短缺导致的全面工资增长以及持续更久的全球供给侧摩擦。同时，纪要指出许多与会者判断，如果目前的改善速度继续下去，劳动力市场将很快接近最大就业。在高通胀、向好且偏紧就业市场、较好的经济增长前景的背景下，美联储或提早加息。市场对于美联储2022年加息预期有所上升，并对加息时点的预期也大幅提前，该预期变化推动美债利率快速上行。市场对于加息预期升温，根据芝加哥商品交易所的数据，截止2022年1月6日，市场预期2022年12月联邦基金利率目标区间主要集中于50-125bp，而在2021年9月末市场预期该时点利率目标区间主要为0-75bp；市场预期2022年3月加息的概率为67.57%，远超去年九月末市场2.37%的预期。我们认为美联储于2022年第一季度首次加息的可能性较高，美联储2022年或进行三次加息，此外近期市场对于加息预期的增强推动导致10年期国债上升5bp并突破1.7%，我们预计近期利率将进一步快速上行。美联储12月会议纪要首次提及本轮缩表历史上缩表通常在利率调整或加息之后，缩表周期为1至2年。回顾历史，从1920年至今美联储共进行过七次缩表，缩表周期一般为1至2年，规模在2%至15%，且通常伴随利率调整或在加息之后。2017年缩表是在多次加息后，并且缩表开始时点距离第一次加息时点间隔大约为两年，缩表周期为两年，持续时间较长。2017年美联储对于缩表设立了减持的最高限额，缩表进程透明且基本符合计划，在利率上行较快的背景下会相机减慢缩表节奏，以避免造成过大的市场波动。美联储会议纪要首次提及对本轮缩表的讨论，美联储未来紧缩速度超市场预期。纪要表明12月美联储会议首次讨论本轮缩减资产负债表的适当条件和时机，几乎所有与会者都认为在首次上调联邦基金利率目标区间后的某个时间点启动资产负债表决战可能是合适的；与会人员也指出本次缩表需要注意当前经济状况与以往缩表背景存在差异性，而差异性主要体现在当前更良好的经济前景、更高的通胀、更紧张的劳动力市场和更大的资产负债表，因此缩表的步伐可能会加快。此外，与会者指出目前美联储国债持有量的加权平均到期日比上一次缩表开始时更短，因此如果遵循先前缩表的方法，逐步取消对到期国债的再投资和对机构MBS的本金支付，那么也可能会导致资产负债表的缩减速度比上次更快。缩表进程会公开透明化，今年存在缩表的可能性。对于缩表的方式，与会者表示基于美联储所持资产的构成，缩表的原则与之前一致，即美联储的资产持有应主要由长期国债组成。为了实现这一组合，一些与会者倾向于相对较快地将机构MBS的本金再投资于美国国债，或者让机构MBS比美国国债更快地从资产负债表上消失。与上一次缩表相同的是这次也会设定缩减量的上限，以确保缩减速度可被预测。基于此，我们认为2022年存在缩表的可能性，缩表最早或于2022年年底开始。紧缩货币政策预期对经济、金融市场影响几何？经济是否会因美联储紧缩加速，加息提前而陷入衰退？当前经济活动和就业指标继续向好，经济处于复苏态势并存在一定韧性，通胀水平处于高位，货币环境整体非常宽松，因此加息导致经济衰退的可能性较低。并且美联储加息进程一般为渐进式加息，而目前利率水平接近于零边界，所以预计在本轮加息初期，对于经济造成的压力有限。同时也需要注意若美联储预期管理不够充分，与市场沟通不足，加息或缩表过快，或对经济构成一定下行风险。提前加息预期强烈叠加提前缩表预期对美债利率影响几何？当前美联储货币政策紧缩速度超市场预期、加息预期升温、市场通胀高位运行仍将短期持续等因素下，预计美债利率在近期存在较大的上行压力，近期将全面快速上行。但Omicron变异毒株的蔓延或将放缓经济增长预期，叠加供需矛盾有所减弱，通胀预期受到压制，预计10年期美债收益率或可上升至1.90%。美联储紧缩货币政策影响下，美股今年第一季度是否会有较大幅度下跌？加息预期增强、缩表时点或较大程度提前以及缩表速度或快于以往表明美联储货币政策收紧速度加快，无风险利率或将进入快速上行阶段，对风险资产价格形成压制，股市面临调整。另一方面，未来供应端限制有望解除，或将推动经济复苏，将对股市形成的一定支撑。美债快速上行对国内市场影响几何？加息预期渐浓或为美元指数注入上行动能，短期内人民币在“出口强劲+美元强势”的组合下或加强双向波动。当下人民币在节前结汇意愿较强的支撑下保持强势，预计随着节后结汇意愿走缓，其对人民币的支撑也会有所减弱。尽管美联储加速收紧或推动美元指数上行，但若今年上半年出口不弱，人民币汇率或仍能稳定在一定的中枢水平，影响也较为有限。若今年下半年全球供应链改善，同时需求回归常态，东盟等发展中经济体也逐步复苏，那么我国出口替代效应或将减弱，海外收紧预期将成为推动人民币走势的主导因素。在此情况下，如果市场对于收紧预期仍在price in的过程中，则人民币将有所承压；如果市场已经完成对收紧预期的定价，同时欧美在经济基本面和货币政策方面的差距收敛，则会导致美元指数缺乏继续上行的动力，可能对人民币汇率的影响也不大。中美利差收敛或对外资购债的节奏形成一定扰动，但难改增持趋势，中美利差持续收窄或会影响到国内货币政策宽松的窗口期。从交易角度来看，当前10年期美债收益率快速上行并突破1.7%，美国正处于货币政策逐步收紧的进程中；而10年期中债收益率则因为宽松预期而低位震荡，对于外资而言，我国较为宽松的货币政策和充裕的流动性环境更加利多中国债券；从稳定性角度来看，人民币汇率整体保持稳定，中债收益率波动幅度较小且中国债券资产与全球其他债券资产相关性较小，能够满足外资分散化配置需求。因此，即使当前中美利差已收窄至110bps左右（1月5日数据），人民币债券资产对于外资而言仍具吸引力，中美利差收敛或对外资购债的节奏形成一定扰动，但难改增持趋势。然而，中美利差持续收窄或会影响到国内货币政策宽松的窗口期，后疫情周期中，我国货币政策保持了一定的独立性，前提是我国与海外经济体复苏周期的错位，中美利差的相对稳定以及人民币汇率的强韧性。随着美国货币政策加速收紧预期渐浓，中美利差快速收窄，以及未来人民币汇率或会更多的受到美元指数上行的压力，这将对我国货币政策宽松的窗口期提出更多的挑战。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOVT":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"BND":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955851869,"gmtCreate":1675349753252,"gmtModify":1676538995600,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955851869","repostId":"622831829","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":622831829,"gmtCreate":1675349260825,"gmtModify":1676538995516,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"新能源汽車股普漲，法拉第未來大漲超14%","htmlText":"週四，美股新能源車板塊上揚，法拉第未來大漲超14%，Rivian漲超5%，特斯拉、理想汽車漲超4%，小鵬汽車、蔚來漲約1%。","listText":"週四，美股新能源車板塊上揚，法拉第未來大漲超14%，Rivian漲超5%，特斯拉、理想汽車漲超4%，小鵬汽車、蔚來漲約1%。","text":"週四，美股新能源車板塊上揚，法拉第未來大漲超14%，Rivian漲超5%，特斯拉、理想汽車漲超4%，小鵬汽車、蔚來漲約1%。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da935e850945593bf634b55ea13cda98","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/622831829","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902628509,"gmtCreate":1659691047504,"gmtModify":1704886125867,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586591951932367","idStr":"3586591951932367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok 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