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07:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Different this time? U.S. bond curve inverts, stock index falls, sounds recession alarm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265401635","media":"媒体滚动","summary":"　　9月2日美国劳工部公布的8月份就业报告表明，美国就业市场依然强劲，但金融市场却担心美联储未来的加息力度，美股主要指数先涨后跌。上周五，标准普尔500指数收于3924.26点，较上周四下跌1.07%，纳斯达克以11630.86点报收，即跌1.31%；美国十年期国债收益率收于3.195%；美元指数以109.575点报收，即微跌0.09%。尽管利率倒挂与经济衰退的联系缺乏实证研究支持，但在通胀居高不下的情形下经济衰退问题压在投资者心头。　　利率曲线倒挂先于经济衰退吗？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The market generally believes that the spread between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates is the vane of future economic trends. Now, the long duration of interest rate inversion makes financial market institutions deeply uneasy.</b>The August employment report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on September 2 showed that the U.S. job market is still strong, but the financial market is worried about the future rate hike of the Federal Reserve. Major U.S. stock indexes rose first and then fell. Compared with 526,000 in July, 315,000 new jobs were created in August, of which business and professional services, retail and wholesale, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing and financial services increased by 68,000, 59,000, 31,000, 22,000 and 17,000 jobs respectively. The hot labor market began to cool down, but it was not a worry. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent tough stance on controlling inflation has forced financial markets to think about the pace of future rate hike, and this report provides a good reason for rate hike: previous rate hike have had little impact on the job market. Last Friday, the S&P 500 index closed at 3,924.26 points, down 1.07% from last Thursday, and the Nasdaq closed at 11,630.86 points, down 1.31%; The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield closed at 3.195%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It closed at 109.575 points, a slight decrease of 0.09%.</p><p>At present, the change of interest rate has become the focus of investors' attention, because the interest rate affects the repricing of various kinds of assets, which releases great risks. The market generally believes that the spread between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates is the vane of future economic trends. Now, the long duration of interest rate inversion makes financial market institutions deeply uneasy. At the same time, the basis difference between speculative bond yields below investment grade and the spot Treasury Bond yield curve is widening, which is inhibiting the M&A transaction business of Wall Street enterprises and making the investment banking business tend to be dull. The latest changes in the interest rate market seem to indicate that the next recession will soon come. Although the link between interest rate inversion and economic recession lacks empirical research support, the problem of economic recession is weighing on investors' minds amid high inflation.</p><p><b>Does an inverted interest rate curve precede a recession?</b></p><p>The inversion of interest rate curve is an abnormal phenomenon. The term structure of interest rate refers to the relationship between various interest rate terms, and the related theoretical assumptions pay more attention to the economic significance behind the term structure. The slope of the term curve is positive, which is shown in the chart as the curve tilts from the bottom left to the top right, that is, the short-term interest rate is lower than the long-term interest rate, indicating that the financial market conditions are normal, because the forward interest rate contains risk premiums such as liquidity and default events. On the contrary, if the slope of the term curve is negative, that is, the so-called interest rate inversion, it shows that the curve tilts from the top left to the bottom right in the chart, and the short-term interest rate is higher than the long-term interest rate, which is an abnormal situation and reflects investors' market expectations: the current financial market risks are higher, while the long-term situation tends to be stable. For example, investors believe that the economy will enter a recession in the short term, but the long-term outlook is positive. Finally, the interest rate curve tends to a horizontal line, indicating that the economy is very sluggish (such as Japan and the euro zone), so the future monetary policy is in deep trouble.</p><p>The information technology revolution that arose in the 1990s has greatly improved the spread speed of financial information and greatly reduced the cost of obtaining information. Investors can use more information to make investment and trading decisions. Therefore, the phenomenon of interest rate inversion has attracted more and more attention from the market. The first recession of the century in the United States began in the fourth quarter of 2000, after the spread between the 10-year and the 3-month (ultra-short-term interest rate) and the 2-year interest rate fell to low levels simultaneously (for example,-0.52 and-0.04, respectively, on April 7, 2000), and the situation continued to deteriorate.</p><p>Before the second economic storm (2007-2009 financial crisis), the phenomenon of interest rate inversion in the United States had already appeared. From the second half of 2005, the interest rate spread began to narrow at an accelerated rate, approaching zero in early 2006, and lasted until May 30, 2007 (the 10-year, 2-year and 3-month interest rate spreads were 0.03 and-0.01 respectively). The financial crisis that occurred shortly thereafter brought the worst trauma to American economic growth since the Great Depression. In the following decade or so, the spread level was basically normal, and quantitative easing's policy lowered short-term interest rates to historically ultra-low levels to curb long-term interest rates, promote economic growth and full employment. However, the 10-year vs. 2-year spread began to fall below 1 (i.e. 100 basis points) from mid-May 2015, but recovered above 1 in late October; It broke 1 again on May 17, 2017, and has been falling all the way since then, and only began to rebound on February 21, 2020; Throughout 2015, the spread between the 10-year and the 3-month period was relatively strong, but then slowly narrowed. Since 2018, the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year period has been at the same level, and from March 22 to October 2019, there were many negative values on the 11th. The United States was supposed to enter an economic recession, but the epidemic only advanced the recession.</p><p>From the past economic growth, it can be seen that the change of interest rate spread can better predict the future economic growth trend, so a new round of interest rate spread narrowing will naturally cause panic in the market. In 2022, the financial market will begin to bear greater pressure. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year interest rates began to fall below 1 at the end of November 2021, and then continued to shrink. It appeared negative on April 1 this year, and has appeared negative many times since July; At the same time, the spread between 10-year and 3-month interest rates has remained stable, but has narrowed significantly since July. If the Federal Reserve conducts continuous rate hike after the meetings in September, November and December, the spread between short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates will widen, because the interest rate policy directly affects the short-term interest rate market (Federal Funds rate) and does not involve the medium-and long-term interest rate market.</p><p>The spread between the bond yield below the investment grade and the spot Treasury Bond yield curve can reflect the current financial situation in the United States and the activity of large-scale M&A transactions. These bonds are called speculative bonds and are mainly used in corporate mergers and acquisitions (such as leveraged buyouts), and the spread reflects the market's tolerance for risk. Whenever a financial crisis strikes, spreads rise rapidly, sometimes 800 basis points above the benchmark Treasury Bond, leading to evaporation of market liquidity, high interest costs and difficulty in financing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>(ICE) listed U.S. high-yield bond basis (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Compilation), from 305 points on January 3, 2022 to 508 points on September 1, 2022, the cost of funds for speculative trading activities has increased significantly and significantly. Powell made it clear that controlling inflation at the expense of economic development is an acceptable option, so the Fed may be directing a recession.</p><p><b>Is the stock market a barometer of the economy?</b></p><p>Like other financial markets, the stock market is essentially an efficient market for information exchange. Information from economic indicators, survey results, performance releases, domestic and foreign political, economic and military events, natural disasters and other information published by the government and enterprises profoundly affects the value of corporate stocks. Therefore, changes in stock indexes quickly reflect investors' expectations and consensus on future economic development. From a statistical point of view, the stock index is a leading indicator, which has long been regarded by the investment community as a barometer of economic operation, indicating the economic development trend. The economic operation of the United States is generally consistent with the change trend of the stock index, but the change range of the stock index is significantly greater than that of GDP.</p><p>Since the revolution of information technology (Web 1.0) in the 1990s, the innovation of trading technology has changed with each passing day, accelerated the speed of information dissemination, enriched trading channels, provided equal opportunities for all kinds of investors (inclusive finance), greatly increased the proportion of retail transactions, and the stock market has new characteristics. Take stock index volatility as an example. From 1992 to 1999, the quarterly volatility of the S&P Index was 6.41%. From 2000 to 2009, the volatility rose to 8.9%. From 2010 to 2019, the volatility dropped to 6.48%, but from 2020 to 2022 The second quarter soared to 13.42%. With the application of various trading technologies, investors can quickly interpret all kinds of information, understand the trading ideas of retail investors from Reddit, and easily complete transactions through Robinhood's free trading platform. Therefore, the stock index is extremely sensitive to macroeconomic information, and the index trend better reflects the direction of GDP changes in the current quarter than ever before.</p><p>From the perspective of timeline, the stock index is becoming more and more accurate in predicting the direction of GDP change. In the recession at the beginning of this century, the S&P 500 index fell for four consecutive quarters, and the economic recession began in the fourth quarter; During the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the index fell for six consecutive quarters, and from the second quarter when the stock index fell, GDP shrank for five quarters in the following six quarters; At the beginning of the outbreak and in the first two quarters of 2022, stock indexes and GDP fell at the same time, indicating that changes in the two major economic indicators are increasingly synchronized. September is the last trading month of this quarter. Can it close above 3785.38 points (the closing price at the end of the second quarter) at the end of September? The key depends on the reaction of financial markets to the strength of the Fed's rate hike on the 21st.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks expected to stabilize and rise after September rate hike</b></p><p>Interest rate spread and stock index change are two major indicators that reflect economic operation, but they are not the only indicators. Therefore, investors cannot copy them mechanically, but should comprehensively consider overall factors, especially political factors. On the economic front, the inversion of interest rates does make the market uneasy, but the change of future inflation should be the most important consideration. Previously, the Federal Reserve's misjudgment of inflation trends and the timing of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet damaged the central bank's reputation. At present, it must show a tough stance, otherwise greater pressure will come not only from financial markets, but also from federal government agencies in the future. Interest rate inversion will not accurately predict the time of economic recession, but from a historical point of view, the signal effect of interest rate curve inversion cannot be underestimated, because risks continue to accumulate and one day will break out in an all-round way.</p><p>The future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is the hardest to predict. At present, controlling inflation is the focus of the Federal Reserve's work, and the mistakes of the Federal Reserve's work are one of the reasons for high inflation. How determined are the central bank policymakers to control inflation? At present, under the counter-current of anti-globalization, the economic operating environment of the United States is different from before, and the tree wants to be quiet but the wind does not stop. The improvement of the international environment is an important condition for controlling inflation, and it is difficult for the Federal Reserve's rate hike alone to be effective.</p><p>On the political front, the midterm elections to be held in the United States in November may have a significant impact on financial markets. As far as the Republican Party is concerned, former President Trump has great influence in the party. Most of the candidates he nominated who supported him after the 2020 general election passed the primary election in the party, but some candidates lack political experience or lack insufficient campaign funds, making it difficult to gain an advantage in the confrontation with Democratic candidates.</p><p>Recently, the popularity of Biden and the Democratic Party has rebounded. The main factors are as follows: the U.S. Supreme Court controlled by Republican-leaning judges overturned the \"Roe v. Wade case\", and the red states controlled by Republicans have recently begun to strictly restrict abortion; Another big factor is that the Democratic-controlled Congress passed a series of bills related to people's livelihood. However, this does not mean that the Democratic Party can at least maintain a slight advantage of five seats in the House of Representatives and a 50: 50 draw in the Senate, because the election situation is changing dynamically, leaving great suspense for the mid-term elections.</p><p>In view of the current development trend, the decline of oil prices and commodity prices has eased inflationary pressures, but these prices will repeat, service prices and wage costs will be highly sticky, and inflationary pressures will continue for a long time. The author predicts that the Federal Reserve may issue a rate hike of 50 basis points on September 21. Depending on changes in inflation, it may issue another rate hike of 50 basis points on November 2, and up to 25 basis points on December 14. In the near future, the S&P 500 index is not expected to fall below 3,700 points, and it may gradually stabilize after the rate hike on September 21 before rising.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Different this time? U.S. bond curve inverts, stock index falls, sounds recession alarm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDifferent this time? U.S. bond curve inverts, stock index falls, sounds recession alarm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">媒体滚动</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-07 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The market generally believes that the spread between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates is the vane of future economic trends. Now, the long duration of interest rate inversion makes financial market institutions deeply uneasy.</b>The August employment report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on September 2 showed that the U.S. job market is still strong, but the financial market is worried about the future rate hike of the Federal Reserve. Major U.S. stock indexes rose first and then fell. Compared with 526,000 in July, 315,000 new jobs were created in August, of which business and professional services, retail and wholesale, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing and financial services increased by 68,000, 59,000, 31,000, 22,000 and 17,000 jobs respectively. The hot labor market began to cool down, but it was not a worry. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent tough stance on controlling inflation has forced financial markets to think about the pace of future rate hike, and this report provides a good reason for rate hike: previous rate hike have had little impact on the job market. Last Friday, the S&P 500 index closed at 3,924.26 points, down 1.07% from last Thursday, and the Nasdaq closed at 11,630.86 points, down 1.31%; The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield closed at 3.195%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It closed at 109.575 points, a slight decrease of 0.09%.</p><p>At present, the change of interest rate has become the focus of investors' attention, because the interest rate affects the repricing of various kinds of assets, which releases great risks. The market generally believes that the spread between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates is the vane of future economic trends. Now, the long duration of interest rate inversion makes financial market institutions deeply uneasy. At the same time, the basis difference between speculative bond yields below investment grade and the spot Treasury Bond yield curve is widening, which is inhibiting the M&A transaction business of Wall Street enterprises and making the investment banking business tend to be dull. The latest changes in the interest rate market seem to indicate that the next recession will soon come. Although the link between interest rate inversion and economic recession lacks empirical research support, the problem of economic recession is weighing on investors' minds amid high inflation.</p><p><b>Does an inverted interest rate curve precede a recession?</b></p><p>The inversion of interest rate curve is an abnormal phenomenon. The term structure of interest rate refers to the relationship between various interest rate terms, and the related theoretical assumptions pay more attention to the economic significance behind the term structure. The slope of the term curve is positive, which is shown in the chart as the curve tilts from the bottom left to the top right, that is, the short-term interest rate is lower than the long-term interest rate, indicating that the financial market conditions are normal, because the forward interest rate contains risk premiums such as liquidity and default events. On the contrary, if the slope of the term curve is negative, that is, the so-called interest rate inversion, it shows that the curve tilts from the top left to the bottom right in the chart, and the short-term interest rate is higher than the long-term interest rate, which is an abnormal situation and reflects investors' market expectations: the current financial market risks are higher, while the long-term situation tends to be stable. For example, investors believe that the economy will enter a recession in the short term, but the long-term outlook is positive. Finally, the interest rate curve tends to a horizontal line, indicating that the economy is very sluggish (such as Japan and the euro zone), so the future monetary policy is in deep trouble.</p><p>The information technology revolution that arose in the 1990s has greatly improved the spread speed of financial information and greatly reduced the cost of obtaining information. Investors can use more information to make investment and trading decisions. Therefore, the phenomenon of interest rate inversion has attracted more and more attention from the market. The first recession of the century in the United States began in the fourth quarter of 2000, after the spread between the 10-year and the 3-month (ultra-short-term interest rate) and the 2-year interest rate fell to low levels simultaneously (for example,-0.52 and-0.04, respectively, on April 7, 2000), and the situation continued to deteriorate.</p><p>Before the second economic storm (2007-2009 financial crisis), the phenomenon of interest rate inversion in the United States had already appeared. From the second half of 2005, the interest rate spread began to narrow at an accelerated rate, approaching zero in early 2006, and lasted until May 30, 2007 (the 10-year, 2-year and 3-month interest rate spreads were 0.03 and-0.01 respectively). The financial crisis that occurred shortly thereafter brought the worst trauma to American economic growth since the Great Depression. In the following decade or so, the spread level was basically normal, and quantitative easing's policy lowered short-term interest rates to historically ultra-low levels to curb long-term interest rates, promote economic growth and full employment. However, the 10-year vs. 2-year spread began to fall below 1 (i.e. 100 basis points) from mid-May 2015, but recovered above 1 in late October; It broke 1 again on May 17, 2017, and has been falling all the way since then, and only began to rebound on February 21, 2020; Throughout 2015, the spread between the 10-year and the 3-month period was relatively strong, but then slowly narrowed. Since 2018, the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year period has been at the same level, and from March 22 to October 2019, there were many negative values on the 11th. The United States was supposed to enter an economic recession, but the epidemic only advanced the recession.</p><p>From the past economic growth, it can be seen that the change of interest rate spread can better predict the future economic growth trend, so a new round of interest rate spread narrowing will naturally cause panic in the market. In 2022, the financial market will begin to bear greater pressure. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year interest rates began to fall below 1 at the end of November 2021, and then continued to shrink. It appeared negative on April 1 this year, and has appeared negative many times since July; At the same time, the spread between 10-year and 3-month interest rates has remained stable, but has narrowed significantly since July. If the Federal Reserve conducts continuous rate hike after the meetings in September, November and December, the spread between short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates will widen, because the interest rate policy directly affects the short-term interest rate market (Federal Funds rate) and does not involve the medium-and long-term interest rate market.</p><p>The spread between the bond yield below the investment grade and the spot Treasury Bond yield curve can reflect the current financial situation in the United States and the activity of large-scale M&A transactions. These bonds are called speculative bonds and are mainly used in corporate mergers and acquisitions (such as leveraged buyouts), and the spread reflects the market's tolerance for risk. Whenever a financial crisis strikes, spreads rise rapidly, sometimes 800 basis points above the benchmark Treasury Bond, leading to evaporation of market liquidity, high interest costs and difficulty in financing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>(ICE) listed U.S. high-yield bond basis (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Compilation), from 305 points on January 3, 2022 to 508 points on September 1, 2022, the cost of funds for speculative trading activities has increased significantly and significantly. Powell made it clear that controlling inflation at the expense of economic development is an acceptable option, so the Fed may be directing a recession.</p><p><b>Is the stock market a barometer of the economy?</b></p><p>Like other financial markets, the stock market is essentially an efficient market for information exchange. Information from economic indicators, survey results, performance releases, domestic and foreign political, economic and military events, natural disasters and other information published by the government and enterprises profoundly affects the value of corporate stocks. Therefore, changes in stock indexes quickly reflect investors' expectations and consensus on future economic development. From a statistical point of view, the stock index is a leading indicator, which has long been regarded by the investment community as a barometer of economic operation, indicating the economic development trend. The economic operation of the United States is generally consistent with the change trend of the stock index, but the change range of the stock index is significantly greater than that of GDP.</p><p>Since the revolution of information technology (Web 1.0) in the 1990s, the innovation of trading technology has changed with each passing day, accelerated the speed of information dissemination, enriched trading channels, provided equal opportunities for all kinds of investors (inclusive finance), greatly increased the proportion of retail transactions, and the stock market has new characteristics. Take stock index volatility as an example. From 1992 to 1999, the quarterly volatility of the S&P Index was 6.41%. From 2000 to 2009, the volatility rose to 8.9%. From 2010 to 2019, the volatility dropped to 6.48%, but from 2020 to 2022 The second quarter soared to 13.42%. With the application of various trading technologies, investors can quickly interpret all kinds of information, understand the trading ideas of retail investors from Reddit, and easily complete transactions through Robinhood's free trading platform. Therefore, the stock index is extremely sensitive to macroeconomic information, and the index trend better reflects the direction of GDP changes in the current quarter than ever before.</p><p>From the perspective of timeline, the stock index is becoming more and more accurate in predicting the direction of GDP change. In the recession at the beginning of this century, the S&P 500 index fell for four consecutive quarters, and the economic recession began in the fourth quarter; During the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the index fell for six consecutive quarters, and from the second quarter when the stock index fell, GDP shrank for five quarters in the following six quarters; At the beginning of the outbreak and in the first two quarters of 2022, stock indexes and GDP fell at the same time, indicating that changes in the two major economic indicators are increasingly synchronized. September is the last trading month of this quarter. Can it close above 3785.38 points (the closing price at the end of the second quarter) at the end of September? The key depends on the reaction of financial markets to the strength of the Fed's rate hike on the 21st.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks expected to stabilize and rise after September rate hike</b></p><p>Interest rate spread and stock index change are two major indicators that reflect economic operation, but they are not the only indicators. Therefore, investors cannot copy them mechanically, but should comprehensively consider overall factors, especially political factors. On the economic front, the inversion of interest rates does make the market uneasy, but the change of future inflation should be the most important consideration. Previously, the Federal Reserve's misjudgment of inflation trends and the timing of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet damaged the central bank's reputation. At present, it must show a tough stance, otherwise greater pressure will come not only from financial markets, but also from federal government agencies in the future. Interest rate inversion will not accurately predict the time of economic recession, but from a historical point of view, the signal effect of interest rate curve inversion cannot be underestimated, because risks continue to accumulate and one day will break out in an all-round way.</p><p>The future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is the hardest to predict. At present, controlling inflation is the focus of the Federal Reserve's work, and the mistakes of the Federal Reserve's work are one of the reasons for high inflation. How determined are the central bank policymakers to control inflation? At present, under the counter-current of anti-globalization, the economic operating environment of the United States is different from before, and the tree wants to be quiet but the wind does not stop. The improvement of the international environment is an important condition for controlling inflation, and it is difficult for the Federal Reserve's rate hike alone to be effective.</p><p>On the political front, the midterm elections to be held in the United States in November may have a significant impact on financial markets. As far as the Republican Party is concerned, former President Trump has great influence in the party. Most of the candidates he nominated who supported him after the 2020 general election passed the primary election in the party, but some candidates lack political experience or lack insufficient campaign funds, making it difficult to gain an advantage in the confrontation with Democratic candidates.</p><p>Recently, the popularity of Biden and the Democratic Party has rebounded. The main factors are as follows: the U.S. Supreme Court controlled by Republican-leaning judges overturned the \"Roe v. Wade case\", and the red states controlled by Republicans have recently begun to strictly restrict abortion; Another big factor is that the Democratic-controlled Congress passed a series of bills related to people's livelihood. However, this does not mean that the Democratic Party can at least maintain a slight advantage of five seats in the House of Representatives and a 50: 50 draw in the Senate, because the election situation is changing dynamically, leaving great suspense for the mid-term elections.</p><p>In view of the current development trend, the decline of oil prices and commodity prices has eased inflationary pressures, but these prices will repeat, service prices and wage costs will be highly sticky, and inflationary pressures will continue for a long time. The author predicts that the Federal Reserve may issue a rate hike of 50 basis points on September 21. Depending on changes in inflation, it may issue another rate hike of 50 basis points on November 2, and up to 25 basis points on December 14. In the near future, the S&P 500 index is not expected to fall below 3,700 points, and it may gradually stabilize after the rate hike on September 21 before rising.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-07/doc-imqmmtha6264692.shtml\">媒体滚动</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c2daef1242f3787a4c8ac542a8d856","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-07/doc-imqmmtha6264692.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265401635","content_text":"市场普遍认为，长期利率与短期利率的利差是未来经济走势的风向标，而今利率倒挂现象持续时间之长令金融市场机构深感不安。9月2日美国劳工部公布的8月份就业报告表明，美国就业市场依然强劲，但金融市场却担心美联储未来的加息力度，美股主要指数先涨后跌。与7月的52.6万相比，8月份新增了31.5万个就业机会，其中商业与专业服务、零售批发、休闲与款待、制造和金融服务分别增加了6.8万、5.9万、3.1万、2.2万和1.7万个岗位，火热的劳工市场开始降温，但不足为虑。美联储主席鲍威尔最近对治理通货膨胀的强硬表态使金融市场不得不思考未来加息节奏，而这份报告为加息提供了充分的理由：前面几次加息对就业市场影响较小。上周五，标准普尔500指数收于3924.26点，较上周四下跌1.07%，纳斯达克以11630.86点报收，即跌1.31%；美国十年期国债收益率收于3.195%；美元指数以109.575点报收，即微跌0.09%。目前，利率变化成为投资者关注的焦点，因为利率影响到各大类资产的重新定价，由此而释放出的风险很大。市场普遍认为，长期利率与短期利率的利差是未来经济走势的风向标，而今利率倒挂现象持续时间之长令金融市场机构深感不安。同时，低于投资等级的投机性债券收益与即期国债收益曲线的基差在扩大，正抑制着华尔街企业并购交易业务，使得投行业务趋于平淡。利率市场的最新变化似乎预示着下一轮经济衰退会很快来临。尽管利率倒挂与经济衰退的联系缺乏实证研究支持，但在通胀居高不下的情形下经济衰退问题压在投资者心头。利率曲线倒挂先于经济衰退吗？利率曲线倒挂属于不正常现象。利率期限结构指各个利率期限之间的关系，而相关理论假设更加关注期限结构形态背后的经济意义。期限曲线斜率为正数，在图表中表现为曲线自左下方向右上方倾斜，即短期利率低于长期利率，表明金融市场状况正常，因为远期利率包含着流动性、违约事件等风险溢价。相反，如果期限曲线斜率为负数，即所谓的利率倒挂，在图表中表现为曲线自左上方向右下方倾斜，短期利率高于长期利率，属于不正常状况，反映了投资者的市场预期：当前金融市场风险性更高，而长期状况趋于稳定。例如，投资者认为，短期内经济会进入衰退，但长期前景向好。最后，利率曲线趋于水平线，表明经济非常低迷（如日本和欧元区），因此未来货币政策深陷于困境之中。上世纪九十年代兴起的信息技术革命极大地提高了金融信息的传播速度，大幅度降低了获取信息的成本，投资者可利用更多的信息作出投资与交易决策，因此利率倒挂现象引起市场越来越多的重视。美国本世纪的第一次经济衰退始于2000年第四季度，此前10年期与3月期（超短期利率）以及与2年期利率的利差同时降至低位（例如，2000年4月7日分别为-0.52和-0.04），而且情况持续恶化。在第二次经济风暴（2007-2009金融危机）来临之前，美国利率倒挂现象早已出现。从2005年下半年始，利差开始加速缩小，2006年初接近0，并一直持续至2007年5月30日（10年期与2年以及与3月期的利差分别为0.03和-0.01），此后不久发生的金融危机给美国经济增长带来了自大萧条以来最严重的创伤。在随后的十多年里，利差水平基本正常，量化宽松政策把短期利率降至历史超低水平，以抑制长期利率水平、促进经济增长和就业充分。然而，从2015年5月中旬开始，10年期与2年的利差开始跌破1（即100个基点），但10月下旬回升至1以上；2017年5月17日再度破1，此后便一路走低，2020年2月21日才开始反弹；2015全年，10年期与3月期的利差比较坚挺，但后来缓慢缩小，从2018年开始10年期与2年期的利差处于同一水平，且2019年3月22日至10月11日多次出现负值。美国本应进入经济衰退，而疫情只不过将衰退的时间提前了。从过去的经济增长可知，利差变化能较好预测到未来经济增长趋势，因此新一轮利差缩小自然会引起市场的恐慌。2022年金融市场开始承受较大的压力。10年期与2年期的利差从2021年11月底开始跌破1，之后便继续缩小，今年4月1日出现负值，7月至今多次出现负值；同时，10年期与3个月的利差保持稳定，但从7月开始大幅度缩小。如果美联储在9月、11月和12月会后连续加息，短期利率与长期利率的利差还会扩大，因为利率政策直接作用于短期利率市场（联邦基金利率），不涉及中长期利率市场。投资等级以下的债券收益与即期国债收益曲线的利差可反映当前美国金融状况及大型并购交易的活跃度。这些债券被称为投机性债券，主要用于企业并购交易（如杠杆收购leveraged buyout），利差反映市场对风险的容忍度。每当金融危机来临时，利差迅速上升，有时高于基准国债800个基点，导致市场流动性蒸发，利息成本高，融资困难。洲际交易所（ICE）上市的美国高收益债券基差（美国银行编制），由2022年1月3日的305个点上升至9月1日的508个点，投机性交易活动的资金成本显著大幅上升。鲍威尔明确表示，以经济发展为代价治理通货膨胀是可以接受的选项，那么美联储或许正导演一次经济衰退。股票市场是经济的晴雨表吗？与其它金融市场一样，股票市场本质上就是信息交换的效率市场，来自政府和企业公布的经济指标、调查结果、业绩发布、国内外政治经济及军事事件、自然灾害等信息深刻影响到企业股票的价值，因此股票指数变化迅速反映了投资者对未来经济发展的预期与共识。从统计角度看，股票指数属于领先指标，长期被投资界视为经济运行的晴雨表，预示着经济发展态势。美国经济运行跟股票指数变化趋势大体一致，但股票指数变化幅度明显大于GDP变化。自九十年代信息技术（Web 1.0）革命以来，交易技术创新日新月异，加快了信息传播速度，丰富了交易渠道，为各类投资者提供了平等机会（普惠金融），零售交易占比大幅度提高，股票市场具有了新特点。以股票指数波动率为例，1992至1999年，标准普尔指数季度波动率为6.41%，2000至2009年波动率上升至8.9%，2010至2019年波动率下降至6.48%，但2020至2022年第二季度飙升至13.42%。随着各种交易技术应用，投资者能快速解读各类信息，也可从Reddit了解散户投资者的交易想法，并通过罗宾汉免费交易平台轻松完成交易，所以股票指数对宏观经济信息极其敏感，指数走势比以往更好地反映当前季度GDP变化方向。从时间线看，股票指数对GDP变化方向的预测越来越准确。本世纪初的衰退中，标准普尔500指数连续跌了四个季度，经济衰退始于第四个季度；2007-2009年全球金融危机期间，指数连续跌了6个季度，而从股指下跌的第二个季度开始计在随后的6个季度里，GDP就缩水了5个季度；在疫情暴发初期和2022年前两个季度，股票指数和GDP同时下跌，这表明两大经济指标的变化同步性越来越强。9月为本季度最后一个交易月，9月末能否收在3785.38点（第二季度末的收盘价）以上？关键取决于金融市场对美联储21日的加息力度的反应。9月加息后美股有望企稳上攻利差和股指变化是反映经济运行的两大指标，但不是唯一指标，因此投资者不能机械照搬，而是应该综合考虑全局要素，尤其是政治因素。在经济方面，利率倒挂的确令市场惴惴不安，但未来通货膨胀的变化应是最重要的考量因素。此前，美联储对通货膨胀趋势的判断失误、加息和缩表的时机选择让央行声誉受损，目前必须表现出强硬姿态，否则今后更大的压力不仅来自金融市场，还将来自联邦政府机构。利率倒挂不会准确预测到经济衰退的时间，但从历史角度看，利率曲线倒挂的信号作用不容小觑，因为风险不断积累，总有一天会全面爆发。美联储未来的货币政策最难预测。目前，治理通货膨胀是美联储工作的重心，而美联储工作失误又是通胀高企的原因之一，央行决策官员到底有多大的决心来控制通胀？在目前反全球化的逆流下，美国经济运行环境不同以前，树欲静而风不止，国际大环境改善是控制通胀的重要条件，仅靠美联储加息难以奏效。在政治方面，美国将于11月举行的中期选举可能对金融市场产生重大影响。就共和党而言，前总统特朗普在党内的影响力很大，他提名的、在2020年大选后挺他的候选人在党内初选中大多过关，但一些候选人缺乏从政经验，或竞选经费不足，在与民主党候选人对决中难占优势。近期，拜登及民主党人气回升，主要因素如下：由共和党倾向的法官所控制的美国联邦最高法院推翻“罗诉韦德案”，共和党人掌控的红州近期开始严格限制堕胎；另一大因素是，民主党控制的国会通过了一系列与民生有关的法案。然而，这并不等于说，民主党至少能够保持众议院5席的微弱优势和参议院的50：50平局，因为选情处于动态变化之中，为中期选举留有较大的悬念。鉴于目前的发展态势，油价和大宗商品价格下跌缓解了通胀压力，但这些价格会反复，服务价格和工资成本又具有很强的粘性，通胀压力还会持续较长一段时间。笔者预计，美联储可能在9月21日加息50个基点，视通胀变化情况，11月2日可能再次加息50个基点，12月14日至多加25个基点。近期，标准普尔500指数料不会跌破3700点，在9月21日加息后或逐渐企稳后再上攻。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZTmain":0.6,"TLT":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"TNmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"ZBmain":0.6,"IEI":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"BND":1,"ZFmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933112708,"gmtCreate":1662251827604,"gmtModify":1676537023249,"author":{"id":"4088815494354440","authorId":"4088815494354440","name":"patly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c0d6ec5a8eb2e404c9da0051582bb7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088815494354440","idStr":"4088815494354440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"……","listText":"……","text":"……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933112708","repostId":"1100144627","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100144627","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1662251370,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100144627?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-04 08:29","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Russia's \"gas cut-off\" valve is tightened, what is the solution to the European energy crisis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100144627","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"“阵痛”来袭？俄欧的能源博弈在反反复复的断、供中，又双叒叕升级了。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司宣布将完全暂停其天然气输送，欧洲或即将迎来一个最为艰难的凛冬。北溪-1无限期关闭当地时间周五(9月2日)晚间，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"Labor pain\" strikes? The energy game between Russia and Europe has escalated again amid repeated interruptions and supply. Gazprom announced that it would completely suspend its natural gas transmissions, and Europe may be about to usher in the most difficult winter.</p><p><b>Nord Stream-1 shut down indefinitely</b></p><p>On the evening of Friday (September 2) local time, Gazprom stated,<b>During routine maintenance work carried out, the turbine was found to have an oil leak,</b>So its key natural gas pipeline to Europe could not be restarted as planned on Saturday.</p><p><b>At this point, the specific restart time of natural gas transportation in the Nord Stream Pipeline has become unknown.</b>Gazprom also emphasized in the announcement that the natural gas transportation of the Nord Stream Pipeline has been completely stopped until the failure can be completely eliminated.</p><p>It is reported that the \"Beixi-1\" natural gas pipeline was completed in 2011, starting from Vyborg, Russia in the east, and leading to Germany via the Baltic Sea. At present, it is also Russia's main gas pipeline to Europe.</p><p>Looking back at this year, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has been stopped and started many times.</p><p>As early as July, the game between Russia and Europe surrounding the turbine maintenance of \"Nord Stream 1\" attracted global attention, and at the same time increased the variables of Russia's natural gas exports to Europe. At that time, Europe completely \"cut off supply to Russia\". \"The worry is already extremely strong.</p><p>Although Gazprom's transmission was later resumed, the gas transmission volume has been reduced to 20% of its production capacity.</p><p>At the end of August, Gazprom announced a three-day maintenance period. As of yesterday's announcement, the recovery of Beixi-1 became far away.</p><p>Although, Siemens Energy recently stated that as the manufacturer of Nord Stream turbines, it believes that the oil leakage failure does not constitute a technical reason for the turbine to stop operating. Such leaks, which typically do not affect the operation of the turbine, can be sealed on site, a routine procedure within the scope of maintenance work. In the past, such leakage failures have not caused operational disruptions. Siemens Energy has no current contractual obligation to carry out maintenance on the turbines, but is on standby. Even if such a failure occurs, the Portovaya compressor station still has enough turbines for Nord Stream 1 to operate.</p><p><b>In fact, whether it is oil leakage or repair. The problem itself is not in these aspects.</b></p><p>Previously, Russia had stated that the only obstacle to the supply of natural gas through the Nord Stream pipeline was the issue of sanctions, which hindered normal maintenance and repair work and also hindered the return of key components. However, the EU believes that this is just an excuse, and Russia is using natural gas as an economic weapon to retaliate.</p><p><b>Europe's \"gas shortage\" is getting worse</b></p><p>Faced with the \"supply cut-off\" crisis of Russian gas, although Europe has been trying to find alternative supplies to prevent Russia from completely cutting off natural gas supply this winter. But for now, it seems that Europe is somewhat out of its way.</p><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the EU will need at least 90% of its natural gas reserves to be safe this winter. Data from energy monitoring website Energy Monitor shows that Europe's current gas storage capacity has only reached 67% of its maximum capacity.</p><p>Although the European Commission recently announced that the EU's natural gas reserves have exceeded 80%, the data review shows that there are differences in gas storage capacity among countries. Some of these countries have indeed successfully stored enough natural gas, while others need to struggle to support in the coming winter.</p><p>According to \"AGSI\", a website that tracks global gas inventories, reserves in major European countries have reached reassuring levels, such as France, Germany and Italy, while the situation is quite different in Eastern European countries, which are facing severe gas reserve shortages.</p><p>Among them, the proportion of gas storage capacity in many European countries:</p><p><b>Germany:</b>84% (this is what Germany is seeking to achieve before cutting off gas from Russia)<b>France:</b>91% (one of the largest gas reserves in Europe)<b>Belgium:</b>88.5%<b>Denmark:</b>88%<b>Italy:</b>82%<b>Poland:</b>99% On the other hand, Eastern European countries are facing a shortage of natural gas reserves:</p><p><b>Bulgaria:</b>66%<b>Hungary:</b>63%<b>Latvia:</b>53% of the relevant institutions and organizations in some European countries issued early warnings about \"breathing\". Bonomi, president of the Italian Federation of Industrialists, said recently that if Russia completely interrupts the supply of natural gas to Italy, it may cause one-fifth of the country's industrial production to be suspended.</p><p>According to the analysis of the European Stability Mechanism, the European Union institution, if Russia stops natural gas supply, it may cause the euro zone countries to run out of natural gas reserves by the end of the year, and the GDP of Italy and Germany, the two most risky countries, may lose 2.5%.</p><p><b>Impact geometry?</b></p><p>It is foreseeable that Russia's partial cut-off of natural gas supply has had an impact on Europe's economic growth; If the supply is completely cut off, the impact may be much more serious.</p><p>Previously, the IMF studied these important issues in three latest working papers. The issues examined in the three papers include: how fragmented markets and delays in price transmission exacerbate the impact; The role of the global LNG market in moderating this impact; And what role these factors can play in Germany, Europe's largest economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98457c0d03101f4ec2081708e7523c8d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to studies<b>, in some of the most affected countries in Central and Eastern Europe (Hungary, Slovak Republic and Czech Republic), the gas consumption gap may be as high as 40%, while the decline in GDP may be as high as 6%</b>。 However, the countries concerned can mitigate the above effects through a series of measures, such as ensuring other supply sources and energy, reducing infrastructure bottlenecks, encouraging energy conservation and protecting vulnerable families, and expanding the \"solidarity agreement\" to share natural gas among countries.</p><p>What are the determinants of risk exposure? Countries vary in their degrees of dependence on Russian gas and other energy sources.</p><p>Since June 2021, Russia's natural gas supply has dropped by 60%, but so far, Europe's infrastructure and supplies from around the world are still able to cope. In the first quarter, total natural gas consumption in Europe fell by 9% compared with the same period last year; At the same time, Europe is already using other supply sources, especially liquefied natural gas from the global market.</p><p>By using other sources of supply and energy, as well as reduced demand due to previously high prices, Europe can cope with up to 70% of Russian gas cuts in the short term, research shows. This explains why some countries can unilaterally stop importing Russian natural gas.</p><p>However, if Russia completely cuts off supply, the difficulty of the above-mentioned decentralization strategy will be greatly increased. Infrastructure bottlenecks may reduce Europe's ability to divert gas within its borders due to insufficient import capacity or limited gas transmission capacity. These factors may lead to an annual natural gas consumption gap of 15% to 40% in some countries in Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p><b>And for the economic impact. The IMF said that if the market is assumed to be integrated (and the market remains so), EU economic activity could shrink by 0.2% in the first half of 2022.</b></p><p>CICC Research also previously stated that under extreme circumstances, assuming that the Russia-Ukraine conflict lasts longer than expected, Russia will significantly or even completely reduce energy exports to the euro zone. By then, European natural gas prices may continue to rise sharply, and the global energy price center will remain high or rise further.</p><p>In this regard, some European countries may adopt limited rationing and significantly suppress industrial production, especially in energy-intensive industries. Reduced production will also curb euro zone exports, and the trade account may deteriorate further. In this case,<b>It is expected that the real GDP growth rate of the euro zone will reach 0.5% in 2022, and the economy will fall into recession in the second half of the year, while GDP may further drop to-1% in 2023.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Russia's \"gas cut-off\" valve is tightened, what is the solution to the European energy crisis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRussia's \"gas cut-off\" valve is tightened, what is the solution to the European energy crisis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-04 08:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"Labor pain\" strikes? The energy game between Russia and Europe has escalated again amid repeated interruptions and supply. Gazprom announced that it would completely suspend its natural gas transmissions, and Europe may be about to usher in the most difficult winter.</p><p><b>Nord Stream-1 shut down indefinitely</b></p><p>On the evening of Friday (September 2) local time, Gazprom stated,<b>During routine maintenance work carried out, the turbine was found to have an oil leak,</b>So its key natural gas pipeline to Europe could not be restarted as planned on Saturday.</p><p><b>At this point, the specific restart time of natural gas transportation in the Nord Stream Pipeline has become unknown.</b>Gazprom also emphasized in the announcement that the natural gas transportation of the Nord Stream Pipeline has been completely stopped until the failure can be completely eliminated.</p><p>It is reported that the \"Beixi-1\" natural gas pipeline was completed in 2011, starting from Vyborg, Russia in the east, and leading to Germany via the Baltic Sea. At present, it is also Russia's main gas pipeline to Europe.</p><p>Looking back at this year, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has been stopped and started many times.</p><p>As early as July, the game between Russia and Europe surrounding the turbine maintenance of \"Nord Stream 1\" attracted global attention, and at the same time increased the variables of Russia's natural gas exports to Europe. At that time, Europe completely \"cut off supply to Russia\". \"The worry is already extremely strong.</p><p>Although Gazprom's transmission was later resumed, the gas transmission volume has been reduced to 20% of its production capacity.</p><p>At the end of August, Gazprom announced a three-day maintenance period. As of yesterday's announcement, the recovery of Beixi-1 became far away.</p><p>Although, Siemens Energy recently stated that as the manufacturer of Nord Stream turbines, it believes that the oil leakage failure does not constitute a technical reason for the turbine to stop operating. Such leaks, which typically do not affect the operation of the turbine, can be sealed on site, a routine procedure within the scope of maintenance work. In the past, such leakage failures have not caused operational disruptions. Siemens Energy has no current contractual obligation to carry out maintenance on the turbines, but is on standby. Even if such a failure occurs, the Portovaya compressor station still has enough turbines for Nord Stream 1 to operate.</p><p><b>In fact, whether it is oil leakage or repair. The problem itself is not in these aspects.</b></p><p>Previously, Russia had stated that the only obstacle to the supply of natural gas through the Nord Stream pipeline was the issue of sanctions, which hindered normal maintenance and repair work and also hindered the return of key components. However, the EU believes that this is just an excuse, and Russia is using natural gas as an economic weapon to retaliate.</p><p><b>Europe's \"gas shortage\" is getting worse</b></p><p>Faced with the \"supply cut-off\" crisis of Russian gas, although Europe has been trying to find alternative supplies to prevent Russia from completely cutting off natural gas supply this winter. But for now, it seems that Europe is somewhat out of its way.</p><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the EU will need at least 90% of its natural gas reserves to be safe this winter. Data from energy monitoring website Energy Monitor shows that Europe's current gas storage capacity has only reached 67% of its maximum capacity.</p><p>Although the European Commission recently announced that the EU's natural gas reserves have exceeded 80%, the data review shows that there are differences in gas storage capacity among countries. Some of these countries have indeed successfully stored enough natural gas, while others need to struggle to support in the coming winter.</p><p>According to \"AGSI\", a website that tracks global gas inventories, reserves in major European countries have reached reassuring levels, such as France, Germany and Italy, while the situation is quite different in Eastern European countries, which are facing severe gas reserve shortages.</p><p>Among them, the proportion of gas storage capacity in many European countries:</p><p><b>Germany:</b>84% (this is what Germany is seeking to achieve before cutting off gas from Russia)<b>France:</b>91% (one of the largest gas reserves in Europe)<b>Belgium:</b>88.5%<b>Denmark:</b>88%<b>Italy:</b>82%<b>Poland:</b>99% On the other hand, Eastern European countries are facing a shortage of natural gas reserves:</p><p><b>Bulgaria:</b>66%<b>Hungary:</b>63%<b>Latvia:</b>53% of the relevant institutions and organizations in some European countries issued early warnings about \"breathing\". Bonomi, president of the Italian Federation of Industrialists, said recently that if Russia completely interrupts the supply of natural gas to Italy, it may cause one-fifth of the country's industrial production to be suspended.</p><p>According to the analysis of the European Stability Mechanism, the European Union institution, if Russia stops natural gas supply, it may cause the euro zone countries to run out of natural gas reserves by the end of the year, and the GDP of Italy and Germany, the two most risky countries, may lose 2.5%.</p><p><b>Impact geometry?</b></p><p>It is foreseeable that Russia's partial cut-off of natural gas supply has had an impact on Europe's economic growth; If the supply is completely cut off, the impact may be much more serious.</p><p>Previously, the IMF studied these important issues in three latest working papers. The issues examined in the three papers include: how fragmented markets and delays in price transmission exacerbate the impact; The role of the global LNG market in moderating this impact; And what role these factors can play in Germany, Europe's largest economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98457c0d03101f4ec2081708e7523c8d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to studies<b>, in some of the most affected countries in Central and Eastern Europe (Hungary, Slovak Republic and Czech Republic), the gas consumption gap may be as high as 40%, while the decline in GDP may be as high as 6%</b>。 However, the countries concerned can mitigate the above effects through a series of measures, such as ensuring other supply sources and energy, reducing infrastructure bottlenecks, encouraging energy conservation and protecting vulnerable families, and expanding the \"solidarity agreement\" to share natural gas among countries.</p><p>What are the determinants of risk exposure? Countries vary in their degrees of dependence on Russian gas and other energy sources.</p><p>Since June 2021, Russia's natural gas supply has dropped by 60%, but so far, Europe's infrastructure and supplies from around the world are still able to cope. In the first quarter, total natural gas consumption in Europe fell by 9% compared with the same period last year; At the same time, Europe is already using other supply sources, especially liquefied natural gas from the global market.</p><p>By using other sources of supply and energy, as well as reduced demand due to previously high prices, Europe can cope with up to 70% of Russian gas cuts in the short term, research shows. This explains why some countries can unilaterally stop importing Russian natural gas.</p><p>However, if Russia completely cuts off supply, the difficulty of the above-mentioned decentralization strategy will be greatly increased. Infrastructure bottlenecks may reduce Europe's ability to divert gas within its borders due to insufficient import capacity or limited gas transmission capacity. These factors may lead to an annual natural gas consumption gap of 15% to 40% in some countries in Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p><b>And for the economic impact. The IMF said that if the market is assumed to be integrated (and the market remains so), EU economic activity could shrink by 0.2% in the first half of 2022.</b></p><p>CICC Research also previously stated that under extreme circumstances, assuming that the Russia-Ukraine conflict lasts longer than expected, Russia will significantly or even completely reduce energy exports to the euro zone. By then, European natural gas prices may continue to rise sharply, and the global energy price center will remain high or rise further.</p><p>In this regard, some European countries may adopt limited rationing and significantly suppress industrial production, especially in energy-intensive industries. Reduced production will also curb euro zone exports, and the trade account may deteriorate further. In this case,<b>It is expected that the real GDP growth rate of the euro zone will reach 0.5% in 2022, and the economy will fall into recession in the second half of the year, while GDP may further drop to-1% in 2023.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100144627","content_text":"“阵痛”来袭？俄欧的能源博弈在反反复复的断、供中，又双叒叕升级了。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司宣布将完全暂停其天然气输送，欧洲或即将迎来一个最为艰难的凛冬。北溪-1无限期关闭当地时间周五(9月2日)晚间，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司表示，在进行的例行维护工作中，涡轮机被发现存在漏油，所以其通往欧洲的关键天然气管道无法在周六按计划重启。至此，北溪管道的天然气运输具体重启时间变成了未知数。俄气也在公告中强调，北溪管道的天然气运输已经完全停止，直到故障能够完全消除。据悉，“北溪-1”天然气管道2011年建成，东起俄罗斯维堡，经由波罗的海海底通往德国。目前也是俄罗斯对欧洲主要输气管道。回看今年以来，北溪1号管道已经停停启启多次。早在7月，围绕“北溪1号”的涡轮机检修而上演的俄欧相互博弈就引发了全球瞩目，同时也加大了俄罗斯输欧天然气的变数，彼时，欧洲对俄罗斯彻底“断供”的担忧就已经极具强烈了。虽然后来俄气的输送得以恢复，但输气量已被削减至其产能的20%。8月底，俄气公司宣布进行为期三天的维护，就此到昨天的声明发出，北溪-1的恢复变成了遥遥无期。虽然，西门子能源公司最新发声表示称，作为北溪涡轮机的制造商，其认为漏油故障并不构成涡轮机停止运行的技术原因。此类泄漏通常不会影响涡轮机的运行，可在现场进行密封，这是维护工作范围内的常规程序。在过去，这类泄漏故障并未导致运行中断。西门子能源当前没有对涡轮机进行维护的合同义务，但处于待命状态。即便发生这样的故障，Portovaya压缩机站仍有足够的涡轮机供北溪1号运行。其实无论漏油也好，修复也罢。问题的本身并不在这些方面上。此前，俄罗斯方面曾表示，北溪管道供应天然气的唯一障碍就是制裁问题，制裁妨碍了正常的维护和维修工作，也妨碍了关键部件的送回。不过欧盟则认为这只是一个借口，俄罗斯正在利用天然气作为经济武器进行报复。欧洲“气荒”愈演愈烈面对俄气的“断供”危机，虽然欧洲一直在努力寻找替代供应，以防今年冬天俄罗斯全面切断天然气供应。但就目前看来欧洲有些力不从心。据国际能源署（IEA）估计，今年冬天，欧盟至少需要90%的天然气储量才能保证安全。而能源监测网站Energy Monitor的数据显示，当前欧洲的储气量才达到其最大容量的67%。虽然日前，欧盟委员会宣布欧盟的天然气储量已经超过了80%，然而数据审查却显示，各国之间的储气量存在差异。其中，有些国家的确已经成功地储存了足够的天然气，而其他一些国家则需要在即将到来的冬季内苦苦支撑。据跟踪全球天然气库存的网站“AGSI”报道，欧洲主要国家的储量已经达到了令人放心的水平，例如法国、德国和意大利，而东欧国家的情况则截然不同，它们面临着严重的天然气储量短缺。其中欧洲多国的储气量比例：德国：84%（这是德国在切断来自俄罗斯的天然气之前追求达到的目标）法国：91%（欧洲最大的天然气储备量之一）比利时：88.5%丹麦：88%意大利：82%波兰：99%另一方面，东欧国家则面临着天然气储量短缺的问题：保加利亚：66%匈牙利：63%拉脱维亚：53%对于“断气”一事，部分欧洲国家相关机构组织发出预警。意大利工业家联合会主席博诺米近日表示，如果俄罗斯完全中断向意大利供应天然气，或将导致该国五分之一的工业生产停产。欧盟机构“欧洲稳定机制”分析称，如果俄罗斯停止天然气供应，将可能导致欧元区国家于年底耗尽天然气储备，意大利和德国两个风险最大国的国内生产总值或损失2.5%。影响几何？可以预见，俄罗斯部分断供天然气已对欧洲的经济增长造成了影响；如果全面断供，影响可能还要严重得多。此前，IMF在三份最新工作论文研究了这些重要问题。三篇论文研究的问题包括：碎片化的市场和价格传导的延迟如何加剧了影响；全球液化天然气市场缓和这种影响的作用；以及这些因素可在欧洲最大经济体德国发挥何种作用。据研究表明，在中欧、东欧一些受影响最严重的国家（匈牙利、斯洛伐克共和国和捷克共和国），天然气消费缺口可能高达40%，而GDP的降幅可能高达6%。然而，有关国家可通过一系列措施减轻上述影响，如确保其他供应源和能源，减少基础设施瓶颈，鼓励节能并保护弱势家庭，扩大“团结协议”以在各国之间共享天然气等。那风险敞口有哪些决定因素？各国对俄罗斯天然气和其他能源的依赖程度各异。2021年6月至今，俄罗斯的天然气供应量已经下降了60%，但到目前为止，欧洲的基础设施和来自全球的供应尚能应对。第一季度，欧洲的天然气总消耗量比去年同期下降了9%；同时，欧洲已在使用其他的供应来源，尤其是来自全球市场的液化天然气。研究显示，通过使用其他供应来源和能源，以及由于先前高价格导致的需求减少，欧洲可以在短期内应对俄罗斯高达70%的天然气断供。这解释了为何一些国家能够单方面停止进口俄罗斯天然气。但若俄罗斯完全断供，上述分散化策略的难度将大幅提升。由于进口能力不足或输气能力有限，基础设施瓶颈可能降低欧洲在境内改道天然气的能力。这些因素可能导致中欧、东欧部分国家的年天然气消费缺口达到15%至40%。而对于带来的经济影响。IMF表示，若假设市场是一体化的（市场维持如此），则欧盟经济活动可能在2022年上半年萎缩0.2%。中金研究此前也表示，极端情形下，假设俄乌冲突持续时间比预期更久，俄罗斯明显甚至完全削减对欧元区的能源出口。届时或将看到欧洲天然气价格继续大幅上升，全球能源价格中枢维持高位或进一步冲高。对此，部分欧洲国家可能采取限量配给，并大幅压制工业生产，特别是在能源密集型行业。生产减少也将抑制欧元区出口，贸易账户或进一步恶化。该情形下，预计2022年欧元区实际GDP增速至0.5%，下半年经济将陷入衰退，而2023年GDP或进一步降至-1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906014441,"gmtCreate":1659453357485,"gmtModify":1705980516079,"author":{"id":"4088815494354440","authorId":"4088815494354440","name":"patly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c0d6ec5a8eb2e404c9da0051582bb7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088815494354440","idStr":"4088815494354440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906014441","repostId":"9906034658","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9906034658,"gmtCreate":1659452190577,"gmtModify":1705980499423,"author":{"id":"4087293837756560","authorId":"4087293837756560","name":"investboy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/468da7a5f10e20c7df2b48e7c8ee52aa","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087293837756560","idStr":"4087293837756560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"、近期，一項“700億美元芯片法案”的推進將佩洛西這個“美國最具權勢的女人”拖下了水——因爲其丈夫的每一次投資都精準又及時地趕在了衆議院釋放相關行業利好消息前。目前，佩洛西夫婦涉嫌“內幕交易”的消息不斷髮酵，正愈演愈烈；2、雖然佩洛西本人名下沒有披露任何股票投資交易（也不被法律允許），但其夫婦二人的淨資產超過 1.14 億美元。其丈夫保羅·佩洛西在2019年至2021年間披露了61筆交易。美媒Business Insider報道稱，“這對夫婦的絕大多數財富來自保羅·佩洛西的股票、期權和投資。”3、數據顯示，佩洛西夫婦在2019年和2020年分別以5%和14%的速度跑贏了標準普爾500指數的平均投資回報率，並且其投資組合的市值在2019年至2021年第四季度的幾年間增長了96%，獲得超6200萬美元的收益，被民衆直呼“國會山股神”；4、關於美國議員們“內幕交易”的質疑已經由來已久，甚至有人開發出一款名爲“內幕投資組合”的產品來跟蹤議員的投資動向，只是一向嚴苛的美國法律面前，在指控這些立法機構的成員們卻十分艱難，甚至會遭到衆議院議長佩洛西的掣肘。","listText":"、近期，一項“700億美元芯片法案”的推進將佩洛西這個“美國最具權勢的女人”拖下了水——因爲其丈夫的每一次投資都精準又及時地趕在了衆議院釋放相關行業利好消息前。目前，佩洛西夫婦涉嫌“內幕交易”的消息不斷髮酵，正愈演愈烈；2、雖然佩洛西本人名下沒有披露任何股票投資交易（也不被法律允許），但其夫婦二人的淨資產超過 1.14 億美元。其丈夫保羅·佩洛西在2019年至2021年間披露了61筆交易。美媒Business Insider報道稱，“這對夫婦的絕大多數財富來自保羅·佩洛西的股票、期權和投資。”3、數據顯示，佩洛西夫婦在2019年和2020年分別以5%和14%的速度跑贏了標準普爾500指數的平均投資回報率，並且其投資組合的市值在2019年至2021年第四季度的幾年間增長了96%，獲得超6200萬美元的收益，被民衆直呼“國會山股神”；4、關於美國議員們“內幕交易”的質疑已經由來已久，甚至有人開發出一款名爲“內幕投資組合”的產品來跟蹤議員的投資動向，只是一向嚴苛的美國法律面前，在指控這些立法機構的成員們卻十分艱難，甚至會遭到衆議院議長佩洛西的掣肘。","text":"、近期，一項“700億美元芯片法案”的推進將佩洛西這個“美國最具權勢的女人”拖下了水——因爲其丈夫的每一次投資都精準又及時地趕在了衆議院釋放相關行業利好消息前。目前，佩洛西夫婦涉嫌“內幕交易”的消息不斷髮酵，正愈演愈烈；2、雖然佩洛西本人名下沒有披露任何股票投資交易（也不被法律允許），但其夫婦二人的淨資產超過 1.14 億美元。其丈夫保羅·佩洛西在2019年至2021年間披露了61筆交易。美媒Business Insider報道稱，“這對夫婦的絕大多數財富來自保羅·佩洛西的股票、期權和投資。”3、數據顯示，佩洛西夫婦在2019年和2020年分別以5%和14%的速度跑贏了標準普爾500指數的平均投資回報率，並且其投資組合的市值在2019年至2021年第四季度的幾年間增長了96%，獲得超6200萬美元的收益，被民衆直呼“國會山股神”；4、關於美國議員們“內幕交易”的質疑已經由來已久，甚至有人開發出一款名爲“內幕投資組合”的產品來跟蹤議員的投資動向，只是一向嚴苛的美國法律面前，在指控這些立法機構的成員們卻十分艱難，甚至會遭到衆議院議長佩洛西的掣肘。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906034658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055427701,"gmtCreate":1655304573103,"gmtModify":1676535608908,"author":{"id":"4088815494354440","authorId":"4088815494354440","name":"patly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c0d6ec5a8eb2e404c9da0051582bb7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088815494354440","idStr":"4088815494354440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055427701","repostId":"9055593334","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9055593334,"gmtCreate":1655287468177,"gmtModify":1676535604751,"author":{"id":"3527667626267411","authorId":"3527667626267411","name":"Value_investing","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667626267411","idStr":"3527667626267411"},"themes":[],"title":"New Oriental Up 41%- a New Success Brought By Bilingual Live Stream","htmlText":"Thanks to a live stream, New Oriental Online's stock price doubled in three days.Its&nbsp;founder,&nbsp;Yu Minhong, announced the transformation of agricultural products live&nbsp;six months ago, meanwhile, had&nbsp;a large increase in share&nbsp;holdings. The&nbsp;stock of&nbsp;New Oriental Online had also doubled in a month&nbsp;in response to&nbsp;these news.If the last doubling was the capital market paying for Yu Minhong's ambition, this time is that investors really see the hope.It all come from when New Oriental had promoted goods in the live stream with the combination of Chinese and English delivery, which beat netizens’&nbsp;expectation that they could learn a lot by buying goods.The“Oriental selection”, a broadcast platform, was on the hot topic because of the novelty of the liv","listText":"Thanks to a live stream, New Oriental Online's stock price doubled in three days.Its&nbsp;founder,&nbsp;Yu Minhong, announced the transformation of agricultural products live&nbsp;six months ago, meanwhile, had&nbsp;a large increase in share&nbsp;holdings. The&nbsp;stock of&nbsp;New Oriental Online had also doubled in a month&nbsp;in response to&nbsp;these news.If the last doubling was the capital market paying for Yu Minhong's ambition, this time is that investors really see the hope.It all come from when New Oriental had promoted goods in the live stream with the combination of Chinese and English delivery, which beat netizens’&nbsp;expectation that they could learn a lot by buying goods.The“Oriental selection”, a broadcast platform, was on the hot topic because of the novelty of the liv","text":"Thanks to a live stream, New Oriental Online's stock price doubled in three days.Its founder, Yu Minhong, announced the transformation of agricultural products live six months ago, meanwhile, had a large increase in share holdings. The stock of New Oriental Online had also doubled in a month in response to these news.If the last doubling was the capital market paying for Yu Minhong's ambition, this time is that investors really see the hope.It all come from when New Oriental had promoted goods in the live stream with the combination of Chinese and English delivery, which beat netizens’ expectation that they could learn a lot by buying goods.The“Oriental selection”, a broadcast platform, was on the hot topic because of the novelty of the liv","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd7bf53f308015dd6fe8cbc733a17220","width":"553","height":"290"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055593334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051645926,"gmtCreate":1654692739365,"gmtModify":1676535492835,"author":{"id":"4088815494354440","authorId":"4088815494354440","name":"patly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c0d6ec5a8eb2e404c9da0051582bb7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088815494354440","idStr":"4088815494354440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BS6.SI\">$扬子江船业(BS6.SI)$</a>12","listText":"<a 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