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2023-01-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2022-12-31

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2022-12-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2022-11-10

$爱奇艺(IQ)$

2022-10-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2022-10-18

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2022-10-16

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2022-10-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2022-10-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

2022-10-05

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$

2022-10-05

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2022-10-04

2022-09-24

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Bridgewater Dalio's latest conversation! Bluntly go long in the Chinese market for a long time

2022-09-08

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2022-08-16

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@德林社:怎樣讓清華北大的博士爲你打工？

2022-08-06

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Last night and this morning | Violent rate hike is expected to rekindle! Another "epic" demon stock ""

2022-08-02

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2022-08-01

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Foreign media headlines | Federal Reserve Kashkari says inflation is very worrying

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>","listText":"<a 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21:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Bridgewater Dalio's latest conversation! Bluntly go long in the Chinese market for a long time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163125162","media":"资识","summary":"精彩观点1、货币政策会持续收紧，直到经济带来的痛苦大于通胀带来的痛苦。2、当通胀过高，债券持有者将会获得一个很差的回报，但很多人没有意识到这一点，因为他们一直认为风险最小的投资是现金，而他们因为现金损","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Wonderful point of view</b></p><p><b>1. Monetary policy will continue to tighten until the pain caused by the economy is greater than the pain caused by inflation.</b><b>2. When inflation is too high, bondholders will get a poor return, but many people don't realize this because they always think that the least risky investment is cash, and they lose a lot of money because of cash.</b><b>3. At present, we mainly rely on the cash balance accumulated some time ago to balance our expenditures, so you will see that the durable consumer goods industries such as housing and automobiles begin to tighten. You will see cash dry up and loan delinquency rates rise. You will see all these very classic indicators in the early days of the recession. At this point, economic growth will become negligible.</b><b>4. Republicans are more conservative than ever, Democrats are more liberal than ever, and cross-party voting is the fewest since 1900.</b><b>5. For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they think that a sharp rise in assets is a good investment, and it has nothing to do with whether it is expensive or not.</b><b>6. I have been long in the Chinese market for a long time. The current situation is that the price of Chinese assets is very low.</b>The above are the views expressed by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, in a conversation with MarketWatch editor-in-chief Mark DeCambre on September 21, local time in the United States.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, raising the Federal Funds rate target range to between 3.00% and 3.25%. This is the fifth rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year and the third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points, the largest intensive rate hike since 1981.</p><p>In this regard, Dalio said that this is far from over.</p><p><b>\"You often hear them (the Fed) talk about raising interest rates, fighting inflation, but they don't talk about the pain that comes from it... monetary policy will keep tightening until the pain caused by the economy is greater than the pain caused by inflation.\"</b></p><p>Dalio believes that the interest rate must reach about 4%-5% or even higher before it can be stabilized. In the next 2023-2024, the economy will continue to deteriorate, and stagflation will emerge in early 2023.</p><p>This is the result of the combined action of many factors.</p><p>Dalio said that the United States is now suffering from the worst political polarization in more than a century, and now it is facing the largest gap between the rich and the poor so far. Almost everything has obvious internal arguments.</p><p><b>\"The internal conflict you see is an ideological conflict, an economic conflict. Because of the huge debt and financial assets, and the constant lack of opportunities, we need to adjust the economic structure.\"</b></p><p>In addition to internal conflicts, the international situation is also in dire straits. \"<b>Supply chain breaks and resulting inefficiencies, coupled with a lot of costs stacked up, is what makes inflation high.</b>”</p><p>Dalio has repeatedly stressed that cash is garbage, but that doesn't mean investors will be helpless. At the end of the article, he put forward three coping methods. He also stressed not to focus on market timing. \"<b>For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they believe that a sharp increase in assets is a good investment and has nothing to do with whether it is expensive or not. \"</b></p><p>According to Dalio, Bridgewater's Pure Alpha fund is up 25% so far this year, slightly lower than the 32% gain through June reported by Bloomberg earlier this year, but still well above the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f859412d3bc813acbdb1ec602a2877a5\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Smart Investor overseas researchers listened to this dialogue and exchange on the spot, and translated the full text of Dalio's speech and shared it with you.</b></p><p><b>Monetary policy will continue to tighten</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>As early as May 2021, you said that the current problem is that the government needs more money, so they have to print more money, the prices of stocks, real estate and everything will skyrocket, and the dollar will depreciate. (Click to go directly: Congtou Fine Translation | Dalio talks with CoinDesk Chief Content Officer in May 2021) How did you know at that time? At that time, inflation wasn't where it is now. What signals did you see that made you think so?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>It's not complicated. If you give people a lot of money and credit, they will spend a lot of money. When you have a lot of money and credit issued, there is a lot of expenditure for goods, services, and financial assets.</p><p>So that's some of the calculations that aren't difficult. What I want to do most is to teach a man to fish instead of teach a man to fish. So I want to take the opportunity to explain some of the market mechanisms.</p><p>Investors think cash is safe, it's not very liquid, but if you think that way, you're losing a lot of purchasing power, you're losing a lot of wealth.</p><p>These basic things are exactly what I want to convey.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>What do you think the Fed needs to do?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>The Fed has always made a trade-off between propelling the economy and addressing inflation, because when they put more money and credit in, more spending is generated.</p><p><b>So prices get expensive, and then they take the money away and make prices even more expensive.</b>You often hear them talk about raising interest rates, fighting inflation,<b>But they don't talk about the pain caused by this.</b></p><p>All they have to do is balance.<b>Monetary policy will continue to tighten until the pain caused by the economy outweighs the pain caused by inflation.</b></p><p>The question is what level interest rates have to reach before they stabilize.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>What level do you think it might be?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I think it will be between 4% and 5%.</p><p>Now people have no money in their hands, and money is depreciating. If you take the money in your hands, deposit it in the bank or invest it, your real return will be negative. So they have to raise short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates to about 4.5%, possibly a little higher.</p><p>That could leave net inflation to zero.</p><p>But the market economy will suffer anyway, and raising interest rates will affect all the broad classes of assets because these assets have to compete with higher interest rates, such as financing becoming more expensive and so on. So this has a negative impact on equities and other markets, and then creates credit spreads, with a series of consequences.</p><p>I guess things might go that way.</p><p><b>Rate hike will bring a 20% negative impact to the stock market</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>You mentioned recently that rate hike may make the US stock market fall by 20%. Do you still think so?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I still believe that now. Higher interest rates will intensify competition among assets, thus causing stock prices to fall and damaging earnings and the economy.</p><p>Another is the discount rate. When the discount rate rises, the present value of discounted future cash flows will decrease, thus having a negative impact.</p><p>When you invest, you are paying the future cash flow of this company in one lump sum.</p><p>We use the discount rate to calculate the present value of future cash flows, and when the interest rate drops to or near zero, you don't change the discount rate anymore. This raises the price of all assets, everything, including house prices, goes up.</p><p>And when we raise interest rates, if the cash flow is the same, another negative effect is that the value of all asset classes will decrease.</p><p>But the cash flow cannot be exactly the same because there will be fewer purchases of assets, not only of financial assets, but also of goods and services.</p><p>You will find that,<b>Inflation will come with economic setbacks.</b></p><p><b>Fed Will Sell More Bonds</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Let's change direction a little bit. You have spent a long time studying the history of great powers. What are your thoughts?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Let me explain that I am a very practical person, and making money in the market is my game and what I am doing.</p><p>I realized many times that things that had never happened before were happening now. It is precisely because we studied the Great Depression that we could predict the financial crises of 2000 and 2008.</p><p>In our lives, there are three things that have never happened but are very important.</p><p>The first is the amount of debt we have and the rate of debt generation, and the monetization of debt, where the central bank prints money and buys financial assets. This was most obvious in the 1930s.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Since 2020, we have printed a lot of money and overissued it because we must stimulate the global economy.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>We live in a world where the demand for money is very great.</p><p>When I think about how much I'm going to spend, I have to think about what areas I can spend without so that I can spend it on other things, after all, money is limited.</p><p>We are now facing a chaotic situation, which may be the gap between the rich and the poor, it may be the infrastructure, it may be the green economy, or it may be the huge costs of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The world is becoming more and more threatening, and we have to spend more money on national defense.</p><p><b>Everyone says we're going to spend more money, and in a sense we do need to spend more money. But where's the money? Where does the money come from?</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>They're going to print money.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Now, even though the fiscal deficit is falling, we still have a considerable budget deficit, about 5% of GDP, which means that the federal government will have to sell bonds.</p><p>The Fed says it's going to reduce its balance sheet, so they're going to sell another 5% of GDP in bonds, which is 10% of GDP.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>The balance sheet is still very rich, almost $9 trillion.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Yes, but their plan is to go down to $1.1 trillion in the next few years. This means that they will sell bonds, and they must sell bonds. But who's going to buy these bonds?</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Will China come to buy these bonds?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>They wouldn't buy so much either.</p><p>Investors'bond portfolios have changed. We've had a 40-year bond bull market, so everyone who holds a bond feels that bond prices are going to rise and is increasingly holding on to that view over those 40 years.</p><p>Then the interest rate dropped to a very low level, and someone held bonds with negative real returns, and everyone wanted to sell them.</p><p>The question is, how to balance this?</p><p>When reducing personal credit, people spend less, so people must always pay attention to the balance sheet. Debt is the easiest thing to stimulate the economy. In other words, you can get money by borrowing debt.</p><p>Hardly anyone pays attention to where the money is coming from or where it leads to.</p><p><b>When inflation is too high, bondholders will get a poor return, but many people don't realize this because they always think that the least risky investment is cash, and they lose a lot of money because of cash.</b></p><p><b>Now the United States has the most internal conflicts since 1900</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Given the environment we're in right now, is cash still garbage in terms of economic benefits?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Cash will only bring negative real returns, so it is still a junk investment compared to other investments.</p><p>And one more thing,<b>Now we have the largest political and internal conflicts since 1900, even more than in Germany in the 1930s, mainly between the left and the right.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>How did you come to this conclusion?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I use the wealth gap as a measure, and I also pay attention to the voting results.</p><p>If conservative and liberal are distinguished according to the number of economic policies,<b>Republicans are more conservative than ever, Democrats are more liberal than ever, and cross-party voting is the fewest since 1900.</b></p><p>And now facing the biggest gap between the rich and the poor so far, almost everything has obvious internal debate.</p><p>You will find that some facts still make people doubt. For example, in the next presidential election, will both sides accept the election results?</p><p>The internal conflict that you see is an ideological conflict, it's an economic conflict, and because of the huge debt and financial assets, and the constant lack of opportunities, we need to make a restructuring of the economy.</p><p>My wife's job in Connecticut, is about disconnected high school students in poor communities.</p><p>To give you a data, Connecticut is one of the richest states in the United States, and 22% of high school students in the state are either disengaged or disconnected. Disengagement means that their absenteeism rate is greater than 25% and they fail courses; Disconnect means they don't know where they are anymore.</p><p>Poverty is the most important problem for a city, and there are many problems caused by poverty, which leads to many conflicts at the economic level.</p><p>What does this mean for taxes? What does it mean for wealth redistribution? What will the future be like? Therefore, the political level of the United States will also face various problems.</p><p>You'll see residents moving from one place to another, and that movement can have an impact on the market. Because you change the tax rate and you also change other factors that will have an impact on the market, which will have a great impact on our lives.</p><p><b>We are very close to recession right now</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Do you think we are in a recession now or we are about to enter it?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>We are very close to recession at present, because the growth rate is already zero. It doesn't matter whether the growth rate is higher or lower. What matters is that we are very close to this red line.</p><p><b>At present, we mainly rely on the cash balance accumulated some time ago to balance expenditures, so you will see the consumer durables industries such as housing and automobiles start to tighten, you will see cash dry up, loan delinquency rates rise, and you will see all these very classic indicators in the early days. At this point, economic growth will become negligible.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Will the depression intensify in 2023 or 2024?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I think the economy will deteriorate in 2023 or 2024, and it will also have an impact on the election.</p><p>Another point that cannot be ignored is international conflicts. These points complement each other, such as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the inflation and economic environment of the entire world, especially on Europe.</p><p>If we have a conflict with China, it will have an impact on the economy in many aspects. In some cases, these factors are superimposed and have an impact. These situations are very important. The reason why I study 500 years of history is because sometimes history repeats itself.</p><p><b>Stagflation will emerge in 2023</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>This is the law of the ever-changing world order. So to sum it up, the 2023-2024 recession will be long-lasting and strong?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>A lot depends on the nature of these things happening at the same time. I think there will be stagflation.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Why is there stagflation? The current unemployment rate in the labor market is only 3%, which looks very strong. I understand that we are seeing signs of recession now, but it hasn't reached the level of stagflation yet, is it?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Yes, what should be the bigger concern for Fed policy? It is not the unemployment rate, but they are actually the cause of the unemployment rate problem.</p><p>Reducing free cash flow, increasing unemployment, adopting liquidity crunch, people spending less... We may be on the verge of this change right now.</p><p>At the same time, we have to deal with external conflicts,<b>There are five forms of war in this world, including trade war, science and technology war, war of geopolitical influence, capital war and military war.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Is the tech war just competing for tech? Or will there be a cyber attack?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>It may evolve into a cyber attack, and the science and technology developed by the country will have great military significance. Therefore, no matter which party wins the scientific and technological war, it means that it will also win the military war.</p><p>There is a conflict between the United States and China for various reasons, and there is a technological war between the two. This war also represents both sides' desire to be self-sufficient in the face of possible sanctions.</p><p><b>If one day the United States wants to boycott China, the economic pressure will be enormous</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Are you still long on the Chinese market?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I have been long in the Chinese market for a long time, and the current situation is that the price of Chinese assets is very low.</p><p>I want to go back to the previous topic, 22% of our manufactured goods come from China, and if one day China becomes in the same situation as Russia, in other words,<b>If we all have to boycott China one day, the pressure on the economy is enormous</b>。</p><p>What I want to say is that even a country with less economic strength like Russia will have a great impact on the world economy due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>This is equivalent to answering your first question,<b>Supply chain breaks and resulting inefficiencies, coupled with a lot of costs stacked up, is what makes inflation high.</b></p><p><b>I think stagflation will emerge in 2023,</b>What we should worry about is how it will affect the 2024 election.</p><p>Because if the economy is not good, people will start to be angry, because quite a few people are suffering.</p><p><b>Cash is garbage, but you can do these 3 things</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>You mentioned that holding cash is a terrible asset and bonds are underperforming, so what do we do?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>The first thing is to look at the rate of return on your assets, including the actual amount of cash denominated in dollars, which is equivalent to returning in<b>Assess your purchasing power.</b></p><p>Next you should<b>Think about your asset kinds</b>For example, inflation-indexed bonds may be better than nominal bonds.</p><p>Third, you need<b>Diversified portfolio</b>, although I think most assets are in a downward channel, as an individual investor, I do not support timing because the world is changing rapidly.</p><p>One of the most important things you have to do is to build a balanced portfolio instead of focusing on market timing.</p><p>You need to pay attention to the correlation between assets,<b>For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they think that a sharp rise in assets is a good investment, regardless of whether it is expensive or not.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1590499050225","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bridgewater Dalio's latest conversation! Bluntly go long in the Chinese market for a long time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBridgewater Dalio's latest conversation! Bluntly go long in the Chinese market for a long time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">资识</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-23 21:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Wonderful point of view</b></p><p><b>1. Monetary policy will continue to tighten until the pain caused by the economy is greater than the pain caused by inflation.</b><b>2. When inflation is too high, bondholders will get a poor return, but many people don't realize this because they always think that the least risky investment is cash, and they lose a lot of money because of cash.</b><b>3. At present, we mainly rely on the cash balance accumulated some time ago to balance our expenditures, so you will see that the durable consumer goods industries such as housing and automobiles begin to tighten. You will see cash dry up and loan delinquency rates rise. You will see all these very classic indicators in the early days of the recession. At this point, economic growth will become negligible.</b><b>4. Republicans are more conservative than ever, Democrats are more liberal than ever, and cross-party voting is the fewest since 1900.</b><b>5. For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they think that a sharp rise in assets is a good investment, and it has nothing to do with whether it is expensive or not.</b><b>6. I have been long in the Chinese market for a long time. The current situation is that the price of Chinese assets is very low.</b>The above are the views expressed by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, in a conversation with MarketWatch editor-in-chief Mark DeCambre on September 21, local time in the United States.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, raising the Federal Funds rate target range to between 3.00% and 3.25%. This is the fifth rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year and the third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points, the largest intensive rate hike since 1981.</p><p>In this regard, Dalio said that this is far from over.</p><p><b>\"You often hear them (the Fed) talk about raising interest rates, fighting inflation, but they don't talk about the pain that comes from it... monetary policy will keep tightening until the pain caused by the economy is greater than the pain caused by inflation.\"</b></p><p>Dalio believes that the interest rate must reach about 4%-5% or even higher before it can be stabilized. In the next 2023-2024, the economy will continue to deteriorate, and stagflation will emerge in early 2023.</p><p>This is the result of the combined action of many factors.</p><p>Dalio said that the United States is now suffering from the worst political polarization in more than a century, and now it is facing the largest gap between the rich and the poor so far. Almost everything has obvious internal arguments.</p><p><b>\"The internal conflict you see is an ideological conflict, an economic conflict. Because of the huge debt and financial assets, and the constant lack of opportunities, we need to adjust the economic structure.\"</b></p><p>In addition to internal conflicts, the international situation is also in dire straits. \"<b>Supply chain breaks and resulting inefficiencies, coupled with a lot of costs stacked up, is what makes inflation high.</b>”</p><p>Dalio has repeatedly stressed that cash is garbage, but that doesn't mean investors will be helpless. At the end of the article, he put forward three coping methods. He also stressed not to focus on market timing. \"<b>For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they believe that a sharp increase in assets is a good investment and has nothing to do with whether it is expensive or not. \"</b></p><p>According to Dalio, Bridgewater's Pure Alpha fund is up 25% so far this year, slightly lower than the 32% gain through June reported by Bloomberg earlier this year, but still well above the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f859412d3bc813acbdb1ec602a2877a5\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Smart Investor overseas researchers listened to this dialogue and exchange on the spot, and translated the full text of Dalio's speech and shared it with you.</b></p><p><b>Monetary policy will continue to tighten</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>As early as May 2021, you said that the current problem is that the government needs more money, so they have to print more money, the prices of stocks, real estate and everything will skyrocket, and the dollar will depreciate. (Click to go directly: Congtou Fine Translation | Dalio talks with CoinDesk Chief Content Officer in May 2021) How did you know at that time? At that time, inflation wasn't where it is now. What signals did you see that made you think so?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>It's not complicated. If you give people a lot of money and credit, they will spend a lot of money. When you have a lot of money and credit issued, there is a lot of expenditure for goods, services, and financial assets.</p><p>So that's some of the calculations that aren't difficult. What I want to do most is to teach a man to fish instead of teach a man to fish. So I want to take the opportunity to explain some of the market mechanisms.</p><p>Investors think cash is safe, it's not very liquid, but if you think that way, you're losing a lot of purchasing power, you're losing a lot of wealth.</p><p>These basic things are exactly what I want to convey.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>What do you think the Fed needs to do?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>The Fed has always made a trade-off between propelling the economy and addressing inflation, because when they put more money and credit in, more spending is generated.</p><p><b>So prices get expensive, and then they take the money away and make prices even more expensive.</b>You often hear them talk about raising interest rates, fighting inflation,<b>But they don't talk about the pain caused by this.</b></p><p>All they have to do is balance.<b>Monetary policy will continue to tighten until the pain caused by the economy outweighs the pain caused by inflation.</b></p><p>The question is what level interest rates have to reach before they stabilize.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>What level do you think it might be?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I think it will be between 4% and 5%.</p><p>Now people have no money in their hands, and money is depreciating. If you take the money in your hands, deposit it in the bank or invest it, your real return will be negative. So they have to raise short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates to about 4.5%, possibly a little higher.</p><p>That could leave net inflation to zero.</p><p>But the market economy will suffer anyway, and raising interest rates will affect all the broad classes of assets because these assets have to compete with higher interest rates, such as financing becoming more expensive and so on. So this has a negative impact on equities and other markets, and then creates credit spreads, with a series of consequences.</p><p>I guess things might go that way.</p><p><b>Rate hike will bring a 20% negative impact to the stock market</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>You mentioned recently that rate hike may make the US stock market fall by 20%. Do you still think so?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I still believe that now. Higher interest rates will intensify competition among assets, thus causing stock prices to fall and damaging earnings and the economy.</p><p>Another is the discount rate. When the discount rate rises, the present value of discounted future cash flows will decrease, thus having a negative impact.</p><p>When you invest, you are paying the future cash flow of this company in one lump sum.</p><p>We use the discount rate to calculate the present value of future cash flows, and when the interest rate drops to or near zero, you don't change the discount rate anymore. This raises the price of all assets, everything, including house prices, goes up.</p><p>And when we raise interest rates, if the cash flow is the same, another negative effect is that the value of all asset classes will decrease.</p><p>But the cash flow cannot be exactly the same because there will be fewer purchases of assets, not only of financial assets, but also of goods and services.</p><p>You will find that,<b>Inflation will come with economic setbacks.</b></p><p><b>Fed Will Sell More Bonds</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Let's change direction a little bit. You have spent a long time studying the history of great powers. What are your thoughts?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Let me explain that I am a very practical person, and making money in the market is my game and what I am doing.</p><p>I realized many times that things that had never happened before were happening now. It is precisely because we studied the Great Depression that we could predict the financial crises of 2000 and 2008.</p><p>In our lives, there are three things that have never happened but are very important.</p><p>The first is the amount of debt we have and the rate of debt generation, and the monetization of debt, where the central bank prints money and buys financial assets. This was most obvious in the 1930s.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Since 2020, we have printed a lot of money and overissued it because we must stimulate the global economy.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>We live in a world where the demand for money is very great.</p><p>When I think about how much I'm going to spend, I have to think about what areas I can spend without so that I can spend it on other things, after all, money is limited.</p><p>We are now facing a chaotic situation, which may be the gap between the rich and the poor, it may be the infrastructure, it may be the green economy, or it may be the huge costs of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The world is becoming more and more threatening, and we have to spend more money on national defense.</p><p><b>Everyone says we're going to spend more money, and in a sense we do need to spend more money. But where's the money? Where does the money come from?</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>They're going to print money.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Now, even though the fiscal deficit is falling, we still have a considerable budget deficit, about 5% of GDP, which means that the federal government will have to sell bonds.</p><p>The Fed says it's going to reduce its balance sheet, so they're going to sell another 5% of GDP in bonds, which is 10% of GDP.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>The balance sheet is still very rich, almost $9 trillion.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Yes, but their plan is to go down to $1.1 trillion in the next few years. This means that they will sell bonds, and they must sell bonds. But who's going to buy these bonds?</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Will China come to buy these bonds?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>They wouldn't buy so much either.</p><p>Investors'bond portfolios have changed. We've had a 40-year bond bull market, so everyone who holds a bond feels that bond prices are going to rise and is increasingly holding on to that view over those 40 years.</p><p>Then the interest rate dropped to a very low level, and someone held bonds with negative real returns, and everyone wanted to sell them.</p><p>The question is, how to balance this?</p><p>When reducing personal credit, people spend less, so people must always pay attention to the balance sheet. Debt is the easiest thing to stimulate the economy. In other words, you can get money by borrowing debt.</p><p>Hardly anyone pays attention to where the money is coming from or where it leads to.</p><p><b>When inflation is too high, bondholders will get a poor return, but many people don't realize this because they always think that the least risky investment is cash, and they lose a lot of money because of cash.</b></p><p><b>Now the United States has the most internal conflicts since 1900</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Given the environment we're in right now, is cash still garbage in terms of economic benefits?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Cash will only bring negative real returns, so it is still a junk investment compared to other investments.</p><p>And one more thing,<b>Now we have the largest political and internal conflicts since 1900, even more than in Germany in the 1930s, mainly between the left and the right.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>How did you come to this conclusion?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I use the wealth gap as a measure, and I also pay attention to the voting results.</p><p>If conservative and liberal are distinguished according to the number of economic policies,<b>Republicans are more conservative than ever, Democrats are more liberal than ever, and cross-party voting is the fewest since 1900.</b></p><p>And now facing the biggest gap between the rich and the poor so far, almost everything has obvious internal debate.</p><p>You will find that some facts still make people doubt. For example, in the next presidential election, will both sides accept the election results?</p><p>The internal conflict that you see is an ideological conflict, it's an economic conflict, and because of the huge debt and financial assets, and the constant lack of opportunities, we need to make a restructuring of the economy.</p><p>My wife's job in Connecticut, is about disconnected high school students in poor communities.</p><p>To give you a data, Connecticut is one of the richest states in the United States, and 22% of high school students in the state are either disengaged or disconnected. Disengagement means that their absenteeism rate is greater than 25% and they fail courses; Disconnect means they don't know where they are anymore.</p><p>Poverty is the most important problem for a city, and there are many problems caused by poverty, which leads to many conflicts at the economic level.</p><p>What does this mean for taxes? What does it mean for wealth redistribution? What will the future be like? Therefore, the political level of the United States will also face various problems.</p><p>You'll see residents moving from one place to another, and that movement can have an impact on the market. Because you change the tax rate and you also change other factors that will have an impact on the market, which will have a great impact on our lives.</p><p><b>We are very close to recession right now</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Do you think we are in a recession now or we are about to enter it?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>We are very close to recession at present, because the growth rate is already zero. It doesn't matter whether the growth rate is higher or lower. What matters is that we are very close to this red line.</p><p><b>At present, we mainly rely on the cash balance accumulated some time ago to balance expenditures, so you will see the consumer durables industries such as housing and automobiles start to tighten, you will see cash dry up, loan delinquency rates rise, and you will see all these very classic indicators in the early days. At this point, economic growth will become negligible.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Will the depression intensify in 2023 or 2024?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I think the economy will deteriorate in 2023 or 2024, and it will also have an impact on the election.</p><p>Another point that cannot be ignored is international conflicts. These points complement each other, such as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the inflation and economic environment of the entire world, especially on Europe.</p><p>If we have a conflict with China, it will have an impact on the economy in many aspects. In some cases, these factors are superimposed and have an impact. These situations are very important. The reason why I study 500 years of history is because sometimes history repeats itself.</p><p><b>Stagflation will emerge in 2023</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>This is the law of the ever-changing world order. So to sum it up, the 2023-2024 recession will be long-lasting and strong?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>A lot depends on the nature of these things happening at the same time. I think there will be stagflation.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Why is there stagflation? The current unemployment rate in the labor market is only 3%, which looks very strong. I understand that we are seeing signs of recession now, but it hasn't reached the level of stagflation yet, is it?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Yes, what should be the bigger concern for Fed policy? It is not the unemployment rate, but they are actually the cause of the unemployment rate problem.</p><p>Reducing free cash flow, increasing unemployment, adopting liquidity crunch, people spending less... We may be on the verge of this change right now.</p><p>At the same time, we have to deal with external conflicts,<b>There are five forms of war in this world, including trade war, science and technology war, war of geopolitical influence, capital war and military war.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Is the tech war just competing for tech? Or will there be a cyber attack?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>It may evolve into a cyber attack, and the science and technology developed by the country will have great military significance. Therefore, no matter which party wins the scientific and technological war, it means that it will also win the military war.</p><p>There is a conflict between the United States and China for various reasons, and there is a technological war between the two. This war also represents both sides' desire to be self-sufficient in the face of possible sanctions.</p><p><b>If one day the United States wants to boycott China, the economic pressure will be enormous</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Are you still long on the Chinese market?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I have been long in the Chinese market for a long time, and the current situation is that the price of Chinese assets is very low.</p><p>I want to go back to the previous topic, 22% of our manufactured goods come from China, and if one day China becomes in the same situation as Russia, in other words,<b>If we all have to boycott China one day, the pressure on the economy is enormous</b>。</p><p>What I want to say is that even a country with less economic strength like Russia will have a great impact on the world economy due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>This is equivalent to answering your first question,<b>Supply chain breaks and resulting inefficiencies, coupled with a lot of costs stacked up, is what makes inflation high.</b></p><p><b>I think stagflation will emerge in 2023,</b>What we should worry about is how it will affect the 2024 election.</p><p>Because if the economy is not good, people will start to be angry, because quite a few people are suffering.</p><p><b>Cash is garbage, but you can do these 3 things</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>You mentioned that holding cash is a terrible asset and bonds are underperforming, so what do we do?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>The first thing is to look at the rate of return on your assets, including the actual amount of cash denominated in dollars, which is equivalent to returning in<b>Assess your purchasing power.</b></p><p>Next you should<b>Think about your asset kinds</b>For example, inflation-indexed bonds may be better than nominal bonds.</p><p>Third, you need<b>Diversified portfolio</b>, although I think most assets are in a downward channel, as an individual investor, I do not support timing because the world is changing rapidly.</p><p>One of the most important things you have to do is to build a balanced portfolio instead of focusing on market timing.</p><p>You need to pay attention to the correlation between assets,<b>For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they think that a sharp rise in assets is a good investment, regardless of whether it is expensive or not.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fkIAJKUmNGnkrBWEAr2MMQ\">资识</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fkIAJKUmNGnkrBWEAr2MMQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163125162","content_text":"精彩观点1、货币政策会持续收紧，直到经济带来的痛苦大于通胀带来的痛苦。2、当通胀过高，债券持有者将会获得一个很差的回报，但很多人没有意识到这一点，因为他们一直认为风险最小的投资是现金，而他们因为现金损失了很多钱。3、我们目前主要靠前段时间积攒下来的现金余额在平衡支出，所以你将看到住房和汽车这些耐用消费品行业开始紧缩，你将看到现金枯竭、贷款拖欠率上升，你将看到所有的这些（衰退）早期十分经典的指标。此时经济增长会变得微不足道。4、共和党比以往任何时候都更保守，民主党人比以往任何时候都更自由，而跨党派投票是自1900年以来最少的一次。5、对于大部分散户投资者和部分机构投资者来说，最大的问题是，他们认为资产大幅上涨就是好的投资，跟贵不贵无关。6、我长期做多中国市场，现在的情况是中国资产的价格很低。以上，是桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）于美国当地时间9月21日在与MarketWatch的主编Mark DeCambre对话时发表的观点。周三，美联储宣布加息75个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间上调到3.00%至3.25%之间。这是美联储今年以来第五次加息，也是连续第三次加息75个基点，创自1981年以来的最大密集加息幅度。对此，达利欧表示这远远没有结束。“你经常听到他们（美联储）说要提高利率，要对抗通货膨胀，但他们并不会谈论由此带来的痛苦……货币政策会持续收紧，直到经济带来的痛苦大于通胀带来的痛苦。”达利欧认为，利率要达到4%-5%左右甚至更高，才能稳定下来。而在接下来的2023-2024年，经济会持续恶化，滞胀会在2023年初露头角。这是多方因素共同作用的结果。达利欧表示，美国内部如今正遭受着一个多世纪以来最严重的政治两极分化，并且现在面临着迄今为止最大的贫富差距，几乎所有事情都有着明显的内部争论。“你看到的内部冲突是一场意识形态冲突，是一场经济冲突，由于巨额的债务和金融资产，以及机会的不断缺失，我们需要对经济结构进行调整。”除了内部冲突，国际局势也处于水深火热之中。“供应链断裂和由此导致的低效，再加上许多成本的叠加，这就是通胀率高的原因。”达利欧曾多次强调现金是垃圾，但这并不意味着投资者将会束手无策。他在文末提出了三个应对方法。他还强调不要关注市场择时，“对于大部分散户投资者和部分机构投资者来说，最大的问题是，他们认为资产大幅上涨就是好的投资，跟贵不贵无关。”据达利欧透露，桥水的Pure Alpha基金今年迄今上涨了25%，略低于彭博社今年早些时候报道的截至6月的32%涨幅，但仍远高于标普500指数。聪明投资者海外研究员在现场聆听了这场对话交流，并精译达利欧的讲话全文，与大家分享。货币政策会持续收紧问：早在 2021年5月你就说，当前的问题是政府需要更多的钱，于是他们得印更多钱，股票、地产等一切东西的价格会飞涨，同时美元贬值。（点击直达：聪投精译|2021年5月达利欧对话CoinDesk首席内容官）你当时怎么知道的？那时候通货膨胀并没有达到现在的程度，你看到了什么信号让你这么想？达利欧：这不复杂。如果你给人们很多钱和信贷，他们就会花很多钱。当你有大量的资金和信贷发放时，就会有大量用于商品、服务和金融资产的支出。这就是一些不难的计算。我最想做的事情是授人以渔而不是授人以鱼。所以我想抓住机会解释一些市场机制。投资者认为现金是安全的，它的流动性不大，但如果你这么想的话，你正在失去很多购买力，你正在失去很多财富。这些基本的东西正是我想要传达的。问：你认为美联储需要做什么？达利欧：美联储总是在扶持经济和解决通胀之间进行权衡，因为当他们投入更多的货币和信贷时，就会产生更多的支出。于是物价变得昂贵，然后他们把钱拿走，让物价变得更贵。你经常听到他们说要提高利率，要对抗通货膨胀，但他们并不会谈论由此带来的痛苦。他们要做的就是平衡。货币政策会持续收紧，直到经济带来的痛苦大于通胀带来的痛苦。问题就是要等利率达到什么水平才能稳定下来。问：你认为可能是什么水平？达利欧：我认为会在4%到5%之间。现在人们手上没钱，钱也在贬值。如果你把钱拿在手上，把钱存在银行或拿去投资，你的实际回报将会是负的。所以他们必须要将短期利率和长期利率提高到大约4.5%的水平，可能还会更高一点。那样可能让净通货膨胀率为零。但无论如何，市场经济都会受到影响，提高利率会影响所有大类资产，因为这些资产必须与更高的利率竞争，比如融资变得更加昂贵等等。因此这对股票和其他市场产生负面影响，然后产生信贷利差，并带来一系列后果。我想事情可能会按照这种情况发展。加息会给股市带来20%的负面影响问：你最近有提到，加息可能会让美国股市下跌20%，现在仍然这么觉得吗？达利欧：我现在仍然相信这一点。利率提高会使得资产间的竞争加剧，从而使股价下跌，损害收益和经济。还有一个是折现率，当折现率上升，未来现金流折现的现值将会下降，从而产生负面影响。当你投资时，你是一次性支付了这家公司未来的现金流。我们用折现率来计算未来现金流的现值，当利率降到零或接近零时，你不会再改变折现率了。这会提高所有资产的价格，包括房价在内的一切都会上涨。而当我们提高利率，如果现金流相同，带来的另一个负面效果是，所有资产类别的价值会下降。但现金流是不可能完全一样的，因为资产的购买量会减少，不仅金融资产的购买量会减少，商品和服务的购买量也会减少。你会发现，通货膨胀会伴随着经济受挫一起来。美联储会出售更多债券问：我们稍微改变一下方向。你花了很长时间研究大国历史，你的想法是？达利欧：我解释一下，我是一个很实际的人，在市场上赚钱是我的游戏，也是我正在做的。我多次意识到，之前从未发生过的事现在正在发生。正是因为我们研究了大萧条，所以才能预测到2000年和2008年的金融危机。在我们的一生中，有三件从未发生过的但非常重要的事。第一个是我们的债务数额和债务产生率，以及债务的货币化，即央行印刷货币并购买金融资产。这在上世纪30年代最为明显。问：自2020年以来，我们大量印钱超发，因为必须要刺激全球经济。达利欧：我们现在所处的世界，对金钱的需求程度非常之大。当我考虑要花多少钱时，就必须考虑哪些方面我可以不花钱，这样我就可以把钱花在其他事情上，毕竟钱是有限的。我们现在正面临一个混乱的局面，可能是贫富差距，可能是基础设施，可能是绿色经济，也可能是俄乌冲突带来的巨大成本。世界越来越具有威胁性，我们还要在国防上投入更多资金。每个人都说我们要花更多的钱，在某种意义上我们确实需要花更多的钱。但钱在哪里？钱从哪里来？问：他们要印钱。达利欧：现在，即便财政赤字在下降，但我们仍然有相当大的预算赤字，大约为GDP的5%，这意味着联邦政府将不得不出售债券。美联储表示要减少资产负债表，所以他们会以债券的形式再出售5%的GDP，也就是10%的GDP。问：资产负债表仍然非常富有，差不多有9万亿美元。达利欧：是的，但他们的计划是，在未来几年里要降到1.1万亿美元。这就代表他们会出售债券，也必须出售债券。但谁来买这些债券？问：中国会来买这些债券吗？达利欧：他们也不会买这么多。投资者的债券投资组合已经变了。我们经历了40年的债券牛市，所以每个持有债券的人都会觉得债券价格会上涨，并在这40年内越来越坚持这一观点。然后利率下降到了一个很低的水平，有人持有实际回报为负的债券，大家都想把债券卖掉。问题是，如何平衡好这件事？当减少个人信贷，人们的支出会减少，因此人们必须始终关注资产负债表。债是最容易刺激经济的一件事，换句话说，你可以通过借债得到钱。几乎没有人注意钱是从哪里来的，或者钱会导致什么。当通胀过高，债券持有者将会获得一个很差的回报，但很多人没有意识到这一点，因为他们一直认为风险最小的投资是现金，而他们因为现金损失了很多钱。现在美国的内部冲突是1900年以来最多的问：考虑到我们现在所处的环境，从经济效益上来看，现金仍然是垃圾吗？达利欧：现金只会带来负的实际回报，所以与其他投资相比，现金仍是一笔垃圾投资。还有一件事是，现在我们的政治和内部冲突是自1900年以来最多的，甚至比德国30年代那时候还多，主要是在左翼和右翼之间的冲突。问：你是如何得出这个结论的？达利欧：我用财富差距作为衡量指标，同时我也会关注票选结果。如果按照经济政策的数量来区分保守和自由的话，共和党比以往任何时候都更保守，民主党人比以往任何时候都更自由，而跨党派投票是自1900年以来最少的一次。并且现在面临着迄今为止最大的贫富差距，几乎所有事情都有着明显的内部争论。你会发现有些事实还是会让人怀疑的，比如说下次的总统选举，双方是否都会接受选举结果？你看到的内部冲突是一场意识形态冲突，是一场经济冲突，由于巨额的债务和金融资产，以及机会的不断缺失，我们需要对经济结构进行调整。我的妻子在康涅狄格州的工作，是关于贫困社区脱离脱节的高中生。给你一个数据，康涅狄格州是美国最富有的州之一，而该州22%的高中生不是脱离（disengaged）就是脱节（disconnected），脱离意味着他们的缺勤率大于25%并且课程不及格；脱节意味着他们已经不知道他们的位置了。贫穷对于一个城市而言是最主要的问题，有很多因贫穷引发的问题，由此产生了许多经济层面的冲突。这对于税收意味着什么？对于财富再分配又意味着什么？未来又将会是怎样？所以美国的政治层面也会面临各种问题。你会看到居民从一个地方搬家到另一个地方，这种流动会对市场产生影响。因为你改变了税率也改变了其他会对市场产生影响的因素，这会对我们的生活有着很大的影响。我们目前非常接近衰退了问：你认为我们现在正处于一场经济衰退还是即将进入经济衰退呢？达利欧：我们目前非常接近衰退了，因为已经是0增长率，增长率高一点低一点都无关紧要，重要的是我们离这根红线十分接近了。我们目前主要靠前段时间积攒下来的现金余额在平衡支出，所以你将看到住房和汽车这些耐用消费品行业开始紧缩、你将看到现金枯竭、贷款拖欠率上升，你将看到所有的这些早期十分经典的指标。此时经济增长会变得微不足道。问：萧条会在2023年或者2024年加剧吗？达利欧：我认为经济会在2023或者2024年恶化，也会对选举有所影响。还有不可忽视的一点是国际冲突。这几点相辅相成，比如俄乌冲突对整个世界通胀和经济环境的影响，尤其是对欧洲的影响。如果我们和中国有冲突，那将会对经济在多个方面产生冲击，在有些情况下这几个因素叠加产生影响，这些情况是很重要的。我之所以研究500年的历史，就是因为有时历史会重演。2023年滞胀就会初露头角问：这就是世界秩序在不断变化中的规律。所以总结一下就是，2023-2024年的经济衰退将会持久且强劲？达利欧：这在很大程度上取决于同时发生的这些事情的本质。我认为将会出现滞胀。问：为什么会有滞胀呢？劳动力市场目前的失业率只有3%，看起来十分强劲，我理解现在我们正看到衰退的迹象，但这还没有达到滞胀的程度吧？达利欧：是的，对于美联储的政策来说，更大的担忧该是什么？并不是失业率，反而实际上他们才是造成失业率问题的原因。减少自由现金流，失业率提高，采取流动性紧缩，人们的支出减少……我们目前可能就处在这个变化的边缘。同时，我们还要应对外部冲突问题，这个世界有五种战争形式，有贸易战争、科技战争、地缘政治影响力的战争、资本战争和军事战争。问：科技战争只是在竞争科技吗？还是会有网络攻击？达利欧：可能会演变成网络攻击，国家发展的科技会有重大的军事意义，因此不管哪方在科技战争中获胜就意味着在军事战争中也会胜利。美国和中国之间由于各种原因存在冲突，二者之间正在进行一场科技战争，这场战争也代表着双方都想具备自给自足的能力，以面对可能会发生的制裁。如果某一天美国要抵制中国，经济承压将会是巨大的问：你还在做多中国市场吗？达利欧：我长期做多中国市场，现在的情况是中国资产的价格很低。我想回到上一个话题，我们有22%的制造业商品来自中国，如果有一天中国变得和俄罗斯一样的处境，换句话说，如果到了某一天我们都要抵制中国的时候，经济承压是巨大的。我想说的是，即使是俄罗斯这种经济实力没那么大的国家也会因为俄乌冲突给世界经济带来很大的影响。这相当于回答了你的第一个问题，供应链断裂和由此导致的低效，再加上许多成本的叠加，这就是通胀率高的原因。我认为2023年滞胀就会初露头角，我们该担心的是其会对2024年的选举产生怎样的影响。因为如果经济不好，民众就会开始激愤，因为有相当一部分民众正在受苦。现金是垃圾，但你可以做这三件事问：你提到持有现金是一个很糟糕的资产，债券也表现不佳，那我们该怎么办？达利欧：第一件事是看一下你资产的回报率，包括以美元计价的实际现金金额，这相当于在评估你的购买力。接下来你该思考你的资产种类，比如，通胀指数债券可能比名义债券更好。第三，你需要分散化投资组合，虽然我认为大部分资产都处在下行通道，作为个人投资者，我并不支持择时，因为世界是快速变化的。你要做的最重要的一件事是构建一个均衡的投资组合，而不是专注于市场择时。你要关注资产间的相关性，对于大部分散户投资者和部分机构投资者来说，最大的问题是，他们认为资产大幅上涨就是好的投资，跟贵不贵无关。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938527750,"gmtCreate":1662639825670,"gmtModify":1676537106972,"author":{"id":"4092042073455650","authorId":"4092042073455650","name":"TAILO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faab8b3e8bd8cfbb51e26991cf83c311","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092042073455650","idStr":"4092042073455650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"high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of Funds”，中文暱稱“方方”。魯迅說，在我的後院,可以看見牆外有兩株樹,一株是棗樹，還有一株也是棗樹。“方方”兩個字，前一個“方”是基金，後一個“方”也是基金。這不是故意要疊字，而是FOF的“含基量”很高。平時我們所看到的基金，買的是股票，或者債券；而FOF不是直接購買股票、債券，而是購買基金。基金市場有個規定，公募FOF必須將80%以上的錢買基金。FOF還有個稱號，“超級基金”，“基金中的戰鬥基”，因爲FOF裏面含有“學霸平方”的力量。目前，基金市場共計有3044名基金經理，擁有碩士以上學歷的高達2900多名。有數據顯示，74.6%是985高校畢業，清華北大畢業的也是非常普遍。FOF的管理者是清華北大畢業的博士學霸，購買的基金也是一羣清華北大畢業的學霸在打理，一羣清華北大的博士學霸在挑選另一羣清華北大畢業的學霸，博士學霸X博士學霸=博士學霸^2，優中選優，戰鬥力爆棚，這很能打。基金市場足夠龐大，市場上共計有14000多隻基金，A股有4700多隻股票，基金數量是股票的近3倍。平時買股票，就讓人頭大，買主板，還是買科創板，新能源，還是白酒？面對14000只基金，選起來就更讓人頭大，股票基金、債券基金、還是混合基金？真的“挑花了眼！”挑選基金難，“養基金”也不容易呀。基金經理換人了嗎？重倉持股變了嗎？淨值跌了要不要贖回或者調換？種種問題，對於大衆普通投資者來說，太難了，心態分分鐘可能就被搞崩了。買FOF，就簡單多了，省心省事，還有一幫清華北大的學霸幫我們打工，挑基金，養基金，全交給專業人士，自己“佛系變富”，難道不香嗎？（本期特別支持 易方達投資者教育基地）","listText":"中國最高的學府是清華北大，能進清華北大的基本都是各省的高考狀元，學霸。你有沒有想過，有一天這羣高考狀元，清華北大的博士幫你打工賺錢呢？這不是白日夢，它來了，就是“FOF”。FOF的英文全稱是“Fund of Funds”，中文暱稱“方方”。魯迅說，在我的後院,可以看見牆外有兩株樹,一株是棗樹，還有一株也是棗樹。“方方”兩個字，前一個“方”是基金，後一個“方”也是基金。這不是故意要疊字，而是FOF的“含基量”很高。平時我們所看到的基金，買的是股票，或者債券；而FOF不是直接購買股票、債券，而是購買基金。基金市場有個規定，公募FOF必須將80%以上的錢買基金。FOF還有個稱號，“超級基金”，“基金中的戰鬥基”，因爲FOF裏面含有“學霸平方”的力量。目前，基金市場共計有3044名基金經理，擁有碩士以上學歷的高達2900多名。有數據顯示，74.6%是985高校畢業，清華北大畢業的也是非常普遍。FOF的管理者是清華北大畢業的博士學霸，購買的基金也是一羣清華北大畢業的學霸在打理，一羣清華北大的博士學霸在挑選另一羣清華北大畢業的學霸，博士學霸X博士學霸=博士學霸^2，優中選優，戰鬥力爆棚，這很能打。基金市場足夠龐大，市場上共計有14000多隻基金，A股有4700多隻股票，基金數量是股票的近3倍。平時買股票，就讓人頭大，買主板，還是買科創板，新能源，還是白酒？面對14000只基金，選起來就更讓人頭大，股票基金、債券基金、還是混合基金？真的“挑花了眼！”挑選基金難，“養基金”也不容易呀。基金經理換人了嗎？重倉持股變了嗎？淨值跌了要不要贖回或者調換？種種問題，對於大衆普通投資者來說，太難了，心態分分鐘可能就被搞崩了。買FOF，就簡單多了，省心省事，還有一幫清華北大的學霸幫我們打工，挑基金，養基金，全交給專業人士，自己“佛系變富”，難道不香嗎？（本期特別支持 易方達投資者教育基地）","text":"中國最高的學府是清華北大，能進清華北大的基本都是各省的高考狀元，學霸。你有沒有想過，有一天這羣高考狀元，清華北大的博士幫你打工賺錢呢？這不是白日夢，它來了，就是“FOF”。FOF的英文全稱是“Fund of Funds”，中文暱稱“方方”。魯迅說，在我的後院,可以看見牆外有兩株樹,一株是棗樹，還有一株也是棗樹。“方方”兩個字，前一個“方”是基金，後一個“方”也是基金。這不是故意要疊字，而是FOF的“含基量”很高。平時我們所看到的基金，買的是股票，或者債券；而FOF不是直接購買股票、債券，而是購買基金。基金市場有個規定，公募FOF必須將80%以上的錢買基金。FOF還有個稱號，“超級基金”，“基金中的戰鬥基”，因爲FOF裏面含有“學霸平方”的力量。目前，基金市場共計有3044名基金經理，擁有碩士以上學歷的高達2900多名。有數據顯示，74.6%是985高校畢業，清華北大畢業的也是非常普遍。FOF的管理者是清華北大畢業的博士學霸，購買的基金也是一羣清華北大畢業的學霸在打理，一羣清華北大的博士學霸在挑選另一羣清華北大畢業的學霸，博士學霸X博士學霸=博士學霸^2，優中選優，戰鬥力爆棚，這很能打。基金市場足夠龐大，市場上共計有14000多隻基金，A股有4700多隻股票，基金數量是股票的近3倍。平時買股票，就讓人頭大，買主板，還是買科創板，新能源，還是白酒？面對14000只基金，選起來就更讓人頭大，股票基金、債券基金、還是混合基金？真的“挑花了眼！”挑選基金難，“養基金”也不容易呀。基金經理換人了嗎？重倉持股變了嗎？淨值跌了要不要贖回或者調換？種種問題，對於大衆普通投資者來說，太難了，心態分分鐘可能就被搞崩了。買FOF，就簡單多了，省心省事，還有一幫清華北大的學霸幫我們打工，挑基金，養基金，全交給專業人士，自己“佛系變富”，難道不香嗎？（本期特別支持 易方達投資者教育基地）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d346ba2ae477b64a9e2c0b7461bd873c","width":"640","height":"356"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/687097922","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905027364,"gmtCreate":1659775634860,"gmtModify":1703766483920,"author":{"id":"4092042073455650","authorId":"4092042073455650","name":"TAILO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faab8b3e8bd8cfbb51e26991cf83c311","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092042073455650","idStr":"4092042073455650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905027364","repostId":"1151833716","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151833716","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659747289,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151833716?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-06 08:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | Violent rate hike is expected to rekindle! Another \"epic\" demon stock \"\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151833716","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"市场预测美联储第三次加息75个基点的概率接近70%。拜登当天在发表讲话时表示，“美国政府将让骗子偿还其偷来的东西，并根据法律追究其责任”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in July far exceeded expectations, strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve insists on aggressive rate hike to curb inflation; ② Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared 50 times on the first day of listing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Fell nearly 10%; ③ The Moscow Exchange will allow non-residents from friendly countries to enter the forward market for trading from August 8th. Details > > Overseas markets</p><p>1. Non-agricultural data strengthens Fed rate hike expectations, U.S. stocks close mixed</p><p>US stocks U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recorded gains this week. U.S. non-farm payrolls data in July far exceeded expectations, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will insist on aggressive rate hike to curb inflation. The market predicts that the probability of the Fed's third rate hike of 75 basis points is close to 70%.</p><p>The Dow rose 76.65 points, or 0.23%, to 32803.47 points; The Nasdaq fell 63.03 points, or 0.50%, to 12657.55 points; The S&P 500 fell 6.75 points, or 0.16%, to 4,145.19 points.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday. Zhifu Capital once soared 50 times on the first day of listing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Fell nearly 10%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closing down 1.83%.</p><p>Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing closed up 2325.00% on the first day of listing, and the intraday increase once reached 5262%. The IPO issue price was only US $4, and the stock price once reached US $235.95 during the session, triggering multiple circuit breakers;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>After falling for three consecutive days, it closed down nearly 10%, and the stock price dropped by more than 70% from its peak.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.6%</p><p>The U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls data performed stronger than expected, rate hike expectations heated up, and major European stock indexes collectively closed down. Among them, the German DAX30 index fell 0.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.12%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.63%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed up 0.5% on Friday and fell 9.7% this week.</p><p>International crude oil futures prices closed slightly higher on Friday, with U.S. WTI oil prices rebounding from their lowest level since February. But recession fears sent WTI crude oil recording a nearly 10% decline this week.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for September delivery rose 47 cents, or 0.53%, to settle at $89.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI crude oil has fallen by more than 9.7% this week.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.7% on Friday, and non-agricultural data put pressure on gold prices</p><p>U.S. gold futures prices closed lower on Friday. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report in July eased concerns about an economic recession, and at the same time strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will adhere to aggressive tightening policies, putting pressure on gold futures prices.</p><p>The settlement price of gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down 0.7% at $1,778 an ounce.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The U.S. non-agricultural surge of 528,000 in July \"frightened\" the market! The Fed gets \"ammunition\" for tightening again</p><p>Both U.S. non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate have returned to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>Rising recession fears don't seem to be affecting the heat of the U.S. job market. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the 5th showed that the number of new jobs in the U.S. non-agricultural sector jumped by 528,000 in July this year, significantly higher than the expected 258,000. The average of 388,000 in the previous four months was 388,000. In that month, the U.S. unemployment rate fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%, and the average hourly wage of employees increased by 5.2% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 4.9%.</p><p>So far, the total non-farm employment population and unemployment rate in the United States have returned to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels in February 2020, continuing to strengthen and support the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>2. Hot employment data and market prices reflect the possibility of rate hike during the two meetings of the Federal Reserve</p><p>In response to the stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data in July, interest rate futures traders acknowledged that Fed policymakers may make another rate hike ahead of the next regular policy meeting in September.</p><p>In August, the price of Federal Funds rate futures once fell to 97.64, and the implied interest rate level was 2.36%, which was 3 basis points higher than the current effective Federal Funds rate. The current effective Federal Funds rate is within the Federal Funds rate target range of 2.25%-2.5% announced by the Federal Reserve on July 27.</p><p>The implied rate of interest rate futures then stabilised at around 2.345%, suggesting that there is little chance of a rate hike between the meetings. However, the unusually long interval between July and September may bring additional risks.</p><p>3. The U.S. job market recorded the second fastest recovery since 1981, and the Federal Reserve may rate hike by 75 basis points</p><p>The United States created 528,000 new non-farm jobs in July, more than twice what economists expected, and the job market returned to pre-epidemic levels.</p><p>While the labor market contraction during the pandemic was the worst in modern history, the rebound marked the second-fastest recovery of the job market since 1981. Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that the non-farm payrolls report, which unexpectedly far exceeded expectations, also indicated that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting, which will mark the third consecutive time that the Fed has raised interest rates by such a large margin. rate hike.</p><p>4. U.S. President Biden signed two bills to hold those who use the new crown relief bill to commit frauds accountable</p><p>On August 5, local time, U.S. President Biden signed two bipartisan bills to hold individuals and institutions accountable for using the COVID-19 relief bill to commit fraud. According to CNN, the two bills would extend the time limit for prosecuting fraudsters using the Paycheck Protection Program or the COVID-19 relief bill, extending the statute of limitations for criminal and civil enforcement against borrowers to 10 years. In his speech that day, Biden said, \"The U.S. government will let scammers pay back what they stole and hold them accountable according to the law.\"</p><p>5. New York state health officials warn: Reported cases are only the tip of the iceberg and hundreds of people are infected with polio</p><p>On August 4th, local time, health officials in New York State said that poliovirus was detected in sewage outside new york City, indicating that the virus was spreading in the community. Now these officials have once again warned that the reported cases are only the \"tip of the iceberg\" and hundreds more may be infected with poliovirus.</p><p>New York State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary Bassett said in a statement that in July, a case of polio (polio) was reported in Rockland County, New York, the first in the United States in nearly a decade. Later, sewage samples tested positive for the polio virus, suggesting a larger outbreak is on the way.</p><p>6. U.S. consumer credit surged by more than $40 billion, the second highest increase in history</p><p>U.S. consumer credit surged in June on a jump in credit card balances and a record increase in non-revolving credit, including auto and student loans.</p><p>Data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday showed that consumer credit increased by $40.2 billion from the previous month, second only to the record $47.1 billion in March. Economists expected a median increase of $27 billion. These figures are not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>Revolving credit balances, including credit cards, increased $14.8 billion and non-revolving credit increased $25.4 billion.</p><p>7. US President Biden still tested positive in Novel Coronavirus and is still in isolation</p><p>On August 5, local time, White House doctors said that US President Biden's Novel Coronavirus test result was still positive. At present, Biden's cough has almost completely improved, his body temperature, pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate and other indicators are completely normal, and his lungs are clear. Biden is still in quarantine.</p><p>8. Canada's unemployment rate continues to remain historically low in July</p><p>On August 5, local time, the latest labor force survey released by Statistics Canada showed that despite the loss of 31,000 jobs in July, Canada's unemployment rate remained at a historical low of 4.9% in July, the same as in June.</p><p>Canada's labour market remains unusually tight, with more than 1 million vacancies across the country. The unemployment rate is the lowest on record.</p><p>The number of public sector employees declined, while the number of self-employed people increased, and the number of private sector workers remained little changed.</p><p>9. The U.S. Senate plans to vote on the inflation reduction bill on the 6th</p><p>According to a report by CBS on August 5, local time, the U.S. Senate plans to vote on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 on the 6th.</p><p>According to reports, after the Democratic Party agreed to change some tax proposals, the Senate made key progress on this bill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said at a press conference on the same day that the bill agreement retained the original core contents including reducing the cost of prescription drugs, tackling climate change, plugging tax loopholes, strengthening taxes on large companies and the rich, and reducing deficits.</p><p>It is reported that the policies in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 include allocating $369 billion to combat climate change, Medicare's right to negotiate the price of certain drugs, limiting Medicare's out-of-pocket costs, and extending the Affordable Care Act Subsidy for 3 years.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The Moscow Exchange will allow non-residents from friendly countries to enter the forward market for trading from August 8</p><p>The Moscow Exchange of Russia announced on the evening of August 5th that non-residents from friendly countries will be allowed to enter the forward market for trading from August 8th. At the same time, the announcement said that it will announce later when non-residents of friendly countries will be allowed to enter the stock market for trading.</p><p>2. Foreign investors will return to the Russian blending market starting next Monday</p><p>On Friday local time, the Moscow Stock Exchange said that starting next Monday (August 8), investors from \"friendly\" countries will be allowed to return to the Russian stock, bond, REPO, and derivatives markets. Investors who have not imposed sanctions on Russia, or whose ultimate beneficiaries are Russians, will be allowed to trade in Russia.</p><p>Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in order to protect the Russian financial market, Russia has introduced a series of market support policies, and foreign investors' transactions have also been restricted.</p><p>Next, foreign investors' transactions will still be restricted, that is, only investors from \"friendly\" countries can trade. The Moscow Exchange pointed out that banks and brokerages providing trading services need to confirm the home country of customers.</p><p>3. Russian Deputy Prime Minister: The presidents of Russia and Turkey have reached a consensus on starting to pay part of Russian natural gas in rubles</p><p>On August 5, local time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan had reached a consensus on starting to pay part of the cost of natural gas supplied by Russia to Turkey through rubles.</p><p>On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan held talks in Sochi, Russia, which lasted nearly four hours.</p><p>4. Russia announces sanctions against 62 Canadian citizens</p><p>On August 5, local time, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an announcement stating that in response to Canada's extension of anti-Russian sanctions on June 27 and July 7 this year, Russia decided to ban 62 Canadian citizens from entering Russia. These 62 people include government officials, media reporters, social activists and military officials.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257117425\" target=\"_blank\">Oracle cuts hundreds of jobs this week, reports say</a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>The company laid off hundreds of employees this week as IT prioritized growing its healthcare IT services and cloud businesses.</p><p>The report cited people familiar with the matter as saying that the layoffs mainly hit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>Employees in the advertising and customer experience departments.</p><p>Oracle's layoffs come as the company recently received regulatory approval to acquire electronic medical records company Cerner Corp for $28.3 billion, putting an increasing focus on the cloud<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare services</a>。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257486114\" target=\"_blank\">Another \"epic demon stock\"? Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared more than 50 times on the first day of listing</a></p><p>Following AMTD Digital, the U.S. stock market may usher in another epic monster stock. On the first day of listing, Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared more than 50 times, and its stock price hit a maximum of US $235.95 per share within the day, triggering circuit breakers several times during the session.</p><p>On Friday (August 5), Eastern Time, Zhifu Capital (stock code MEGL) officially landed in the U.S. stock market with an IPO price of US $4 per share. The company plans to publicly issue 5 million ordinary shares with an opening price of US $50. After violent fluctuations, it finally closed up 2325% to US $97 per share.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257192191\" target=\"_blank\">AMTD Digital's wild rise turned into a rapid plunge, evaporating US $160 billion in market value in two days</a></p><p>The previously dizzying wild rise of a little-known Hong Kong financial services company came to an abrupt end, followed by a two-day plunge, and the market value of its US-listed stocks shrank by half.</p><p>AMTD Digital, which has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange for less than a month, hit a record high on Tuesday, but then plummeted 52% by Thursday's close, evaporating about $160 billion in its market value, more than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The current total market value of such companies.</p><p>On Friday, the stock price continued to fluctuate violently, swinging up and down, triggering a circuit breaker at least once. Despite this, AMTD Digital's trading volume is still very low: as of 9:55 a.m. New York time, there were less than 8,000 shares traded. The stock's total daily turnover has been less than 500,000 shares in each of the past four trading days.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Will acquire consumer for approximately $1.7 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Company iRobot Acceleration<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home Business Growth</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN.O) announced Friday that it has agreed to acquire consumer for $61 per share for a total of about $1.7 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Company iRobot (IRBT.O). iRobot's most famous product is the Roomba vacuum cleaner, which will work with voice assistants Alexa and Astro<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Wait together, join<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home Features Checklist. Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, called the move part of Amazon's efforts to own some home space through services and accelerate its growth beyond retail. ABI Research analyst Lian Jye Su said Amazon hasn't had much success with home robots, but the acquisition of iRobot and the company's strong market reputation provide a \"huge foothold in the consumer robotics market\" that could help Amazon replicate its Echo line<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The success of the speaker box.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257711744\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. technology giants collectively downsized, and Amazon lost nearly 100,000 employees in a single quarter</a></p><p>American technology giants collectively downsized, and Amazon lost nearly 100,000 employees in a single season.</p><p>Recently, the international technology giant Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) announced its financial report for the second quarter of 2022, with revenue of US $121.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net loss of US $2 billion, compared with a net profit of US $7.8 billion in the same period last year. Combining the first two quarters of this year, Amazon's net loss was nearly $5.9 billion. It should be pointed out that this is the first time that Amazon has experienced a net loss in its semi-annual report since 2015.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | Violent rate hike is expected to rekindle! Another \"epic\" demon stock \"\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | Violent rate hike is expected to rekindle! Another \"epic\" demon stock \"\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-06 08:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in July far exceeded expectations, strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve insists on aggressive rate hike to curb inflation; ② Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared 50 times on the first day of listing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Fell nearly 10%; ③ The Moscow Exchange will allow non-residents from friendly countries to enter the forward market for trading from August 8th. Details > > Overseas markets</p><p>1. Non-agricultural data strengthens Fed rate hike expectations, U.S. stocks close mixed</p><p>US stocks U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recorded gains this week. U.S. non-farm payrolls data in July far exceeded expectations, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will insist on aggressive rate hike to curb inflation. The market predicts that the probability of the Fed's third rate hike of 75 basis points is close to 70%.</p><p>The Dow rose 76.65 points, or 0.23%, to 32803.47 points; The Nasdaq fell 63.03 points, or 0.50%, to 12657.55 points; The S&P 500 fell 6.75 points, or 0.16%, to 4,145.19 points.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday. Zhifu Capital once soared 50 times on the first day of listing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Fell nearly 10%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closing down 1.83%.</p><p>Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing closed up 2325.00% on the first day of listing, and the intraday increase once reached 5262%. The IPO issue price was only US $4, and the stock price once reached US $235.95 during the session, triggering multiple circuit breakers;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>After falling for three consecutive days, it closed down nearly 10%, and the stock price dropped by more than 70% from its peak.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.6%</p><p>The U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls data performed stronger than expected, rate hike expectations heated up, and major European stock indexes collectively closed down. Among them, the German DAX30 index fell 0.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.12%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.63%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed up 0.5% on Friday and fell 9.7% this week.</p><p>International crude oil futures prices closed slightly higher on Friday, with U.S. WTI oil prices rebounding from their lowest level since February. But recession fears sent WTI crude oil recording a nearly 10% decline this week.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for September delivery rose 47 cents, or 0.53%, to settle at $89.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI crude oil has fallen by more than 9.7% this week.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.7% on Friday, and non-agricultural data put pressure on gold prices</p><p>U.S. gold futures prices closed lower on Friday. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report in July eased concerns about an economic recession, and at the same time strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will adhere to aggressive tightening policies, putting pressure on gold futures prices.</p><p>The settlement price of gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down 0.7% at $1,778 an ounce.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The U.S. non-agricultural surge of 528,000 in July \"frightened\" the market! The Fed gets \"ammunition\" for tightening again</p><p>Both U.S. non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate have returned to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>Rising recession fears don't seem to be affecting the heat of the U.S. job market. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the 5th showed that the number of new jobs in the U.S. non-agricultural sector jumped by 528,000 in July this year, significantly higher than the expected 258,000. The average of 388,000 in the previous four months was 388,000. In that month, the U.S. unemployment rate fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%, and the average hourly wage of employees increased by 5.2% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 4.9%.</p><p>So far, the total non-farm employment population and unemployment rate in the United States have returned to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels in February 2020, continuing to strengthen and support the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>2. Hot employment data and market prices reflect the possibility of rate hike during the two meetings of the Federal Reserve</p><p>In response to the stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data in July, interest rate futures traders acknowledged that Fed policymakers may make another rate hike ahead of the next regular policy meeting in September.</p><p>In August, the price of Federal Funds rate futures once fell to 97.64, and the implied interest rate level was 2.36%, which was 3 basis points higher than the current effective Federal Funds rate. The current effective Federal Funds rate is within the Federal Funds rate target range of 2.25%-2.5% announced by the Federal Reserve on July 27.</p><p>The implied rate of interest rate futures then stabilised at around 2.345%, suggesting that there is little chance of a rate hike between the meetings. However, the unusually long interval between July and September may bring additional risks.</p><p>3. The U.S. job market recorded the second fastest recovery since 1981, and the Federal Reserve may rate hike by 75 basis points</p><p>The United States created 528,000 new non-farm jobs in July, more than twice what economists expected, and the job market returned to pre-epidemic levels.</p><p>While the labor market contraction during the pandemic was the worst in modern history, the rebound marked the second-fastest recovery of the job market since 1981. Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that the non-farm payrolls report, which unexpectedly far exceeded expectations, also indicated that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting, which will mark the third consecutive time that the Fed has raised interest rates by such a large margin. rate hike.</p><p>4. U.S. President Biden signed two bills to hold those who use the new crown relief bill to commit frauds accountable</p><p>On August 5, local time, U.S. President Biden signed two bipartisan bills to hold individuals and institutions accountable for using the COVID-19 relief bill to commit fraud. According to CNN, the two bills would extend the time limit for prosecuting fraudsters using the Paycheck Protection Program or the COVID-19 relief bill, extending the statute of limitations for criminal and civil enforcement against borrowers to 10 years. In his speech that day, Biden said, \"The U.S. government will let scammers pay back what they stole and hold them accountable according to the law.\"</p><p>5. New York state health officials warn: Reported cases are only the tip of the iceberg and hundreds of people are infected with polio</p><p>On August 4th, local time, health officials in New York State said that poliovirus was detected in sewage outside new york City, indicating that the virus was spreading in the community. Now these officials have once again warned that the reported cases are only the \"tip of the iceberg\" and hundreds more may be infected with poliovirus.</p><p>New York State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary Bassett said in a statement that in July, a case of polio (polio) was reported in Rockland County, New York, the first in the United States in nearly a decade. Later, sewage samples tested positive for the polio virus, suggesting a larger outbreak is on the way.</p><p>6. U.S. consumer credit surged by more than $40 billion, the second highest increase in history</p><p>U.S. consumer credit surged in June on a jump in credit card balances and a record increase in non-revolving credit, including auto and student loans.</p><p>Data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday showed that consumer credit increased by $40.2 billion from the previous month, second only to the record $47.1 billion in March. Economists expected a median increase of $27 billion. These figures are not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>Revolving credit balances, including credit cards, increased $14.8 billion and non-revolving credit increased $25.4 billion.</p><p>7. US President Biden still tested positive in Novel Coronavirus and is still in isolation</p><p>On August 5, local time, White House doctors said that US President Biden's Novel Coronavirus test result was still positive. At present, Biden's cough has almost completely improved, his body temperature, pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate and other indicators are completely normal, and his lungs are clear. Biden is still in quarantine.</p><p>8. Canada's unemployment rate continues to remain historically low in July</p><p>On August 5, local time, the latest labor force survey released by Statistics Canada showed that despite the loss of 31,000 jobs in July, Canada's unemployment rate remained at a historical low of 4.9% in July, the same as in June.</p><p>Canada's labour market remains unusually tight, with more than 1 million vacancies across the country. The unemployment rate is the lowest on record.</p><p>The number of public sector employees declined, while the number of self-employed people increased, and the number of private sector workers remained little changed.</p><p>9. The U.S. Senate plans to vote on the inflation reduction bill on the 6th</p><p>According to a report by CBS on August 5, local time, the U.S. Senate plans to vote on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 on the 6th.</p><p>According to reports, after the Democratic Party agreed to change some tax proposals, the Senate made key progress on this bill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said at a press conference on the same day that the bill agreement retained the original core contents including reducing the cost of prescription drugs, tackling climate change, plugging tax loopholes, strengthening taxes on large companies and the rich, and reducing deficits.</p><p>It is reported that the policies in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 include allocating $369 billion to combat climate change, Medicare's right to negotiate the price of certain drugs, limiting Medicare's out-of-pocket costs, and extending the Affordable Care Act Subsidy for 3 years.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The Moscow Exchange will allow non-residents from friendly countries to enter the forward market for trading from August 8</p><p>The Moscow Exchange of Russia announced on the evening of August 5th that non-residents from friendly countries will be allowed to enter the forward market for trading from August 8th. At the same time, the announcement said that it will announce later when non-residents of friendly countries will be allowed to enter the stock market for trading.</p><p>2. Foreign investors will return to the Russian blending market starting next Monday</p><p>On Friday local time, the Moscow Stock Exchange said that starting next Monday (August 8), investors from \"friendly\" countries will be allowed to return to the Russian stock, bond, REPO, and derivatives markets. Investors who have not imposed sanctions on Russia, or whose ultimate beneficiaries are Russians, will be allowed to trade in Russia.</p><p>Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in order to protect the Russian financial market, Russia has introduced a series of market support policies, and foreign investors' transactions have also been restricted.</p><p>Next, foreign investors' transactions will still be restricted, that is, only investors from \"friendly\" countries can trade. The Moscow Exchange pointed out that banks and brokerages providing trading services need to confirm the home country of customers.</p><p>3. Russian Deputy Prime Minister: The presidents of Russia and Turkey have reached a consensus on starting to pay part of Russian natural gas in rubles</p><p>On August 5, local time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan had reached a consensus on starting to pay part of the cost of natural gas supplied by Russia to Turkey through rubles.</p><p>On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan held talks in Sochi, Russia, which lasted nearly four hours.</p><p>4. Russia announces sanctions against 62 Canadian citizens</p><p>On August 5, local time, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an announcement stating that in response to Canada's extension of anti-Russian sanctions on June 27 and July 7 this year, Russia decided to ban 62 Canadian citizens from entering Russia. These 62 people include government officials, media reporters, social activists and military officials.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257117425\" target=\"_blank\">Oracle cuts hundreds of jobs this week, reports say</a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>The company laid off hundreds of employees this week as IT prioritized growing its healthcare IT services and cloud businesses.</p><p>The report cited people familiar with the matter as saying that the layoffs mainly hit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>Employees in the advertising and customer experience departments.</p><p>Oracle's layoffs come as the company recently received regulatory approval to acquire electronic medical records company Cerner Corp for $28.3 billion, putting an increasing focus on the cloud<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare services</a>。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257486114\" target=\"_blank\">Another \"epic demon stock\"? Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared more than 50 times on the first day of listing</a></p><p>Following AMTD Digital, the U.S. stock market may usher in another epic monster stock. On the first day of listing, Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared more than 50 times, and its stock price hit a maximum of US $235.95 per share within the day, triggering circuit breakers several times during the session.</p><p>On Friday (August 5), Eastern Time, Zhifu Capital (stock code MEGL) officially landed in the U.S. stock market with an IPO price of US $4 per share. The company plans to publicly issue 5 million ordinary shares with an opening price of US $50. After violent fluctuations, it finally closed up 2325% to US $97 per share.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257192191\" target=\"_blank\">AMTD Digital's wild rise turned into a rapid plunge, evaporating US $160 billion in market value in two days</a></p><p>The previously dizzying wild rise of a little-known Hong Kong financial services company came to an abrupt end, followed by a two-day plunge, and the market value of its US-listed stocks shrank by half.</p><p>AMTD Digital, which has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange for less than a month, hit a record high on Tuesday, but then plummeted 52% by Thursday's close, evaporating about $160 billion in its market value, more than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The current total market value of such companies.</p><p>On Friday, the stock price continued to fluctuate violently, swinging up and down, triggering a circuit breaker at least once. Despite this, AMTD Digital's trading volume is still very low: as of 9:55 a.m. New York time, there were less than 8,000 shares traded. The stock's total daily turnover has been less than 500,000 shares in each of the past four trading days.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Will acquire consumer for approximately $1.7 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Company iRobot Acceleration<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home Business Growth</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN.O) announced Friday that it has agreed to acquire consumer for $61 per share for a total of about $1.7 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Company iRobot (IRBT.O). iRobot's most famous product is the Roomba vacuum cleaner, which will work with voice assistants Alexa and Astro<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Wait together, join<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home Features Checklist. Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, called the move part of Amazon's efforts to own some home space through services and accelerate its growth beyond retail. ABI Research analyst Lian Jye Su said Amazon hasn't had much success with home robots, but the acquisition of iRobot and the company's strong market reputation provide a \"huge foothold in the consumer robotics market\" that could help Amazon replicate its Echo line<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The success of the speaker box.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257711744\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. technology giants collectively downsized, and Amazon lost nearly 100,000 employees in a single quarter</a></p><p>American technology giants collectively downsized, and Amazon lost nearly 100,000 employees in a single season.</p><p>Recently, the international technology giant Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) announced its financial report for the second quarter of 2022, with revenue of US $121.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net loss of US $2 billion, compared with a net profit of US $7.8 billion in the same period last year. Combining the first two quarters of this year, Amazon's net loss was nearly $5.9 billion. It should be pointed out that this is the first time that Amazon has experienced a net loss in its semi-annual report since 2015.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151833716","content_text":"摘要：①美国7月非农就业数据远超预期，强化了美联储坚持激进加息以遏制通胀的市场预期；②港资券商智富融资上市首日一度暴涨50倍，尚乘数科跌近10%；③莫斯科交易所将从8月8日起允许来自友好国家的非居民进入远期市场进行交易。详细>>海外市场1、非农数据强化联储加息预期美股收盘涨跌不一美股周五美股收盘涨跌不一。本周纳指与标普500指数均录得涨幅。美国7月非农就业数据远超预期，强化了美联储坚持激进加息以遏制通胀的市场预期。市场预测美联储第三次加息75个基点的概率接近70%。道指涨76.65点，涨幅为0.23%，报32803.47点；纳指跌63.03点，跌幅为0.50%，报12657.55点；标普500指数跌6.75点，跌幅为0.16%，报4145.19点。2、热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一 智富融资上市首日一度暴涨50倍尚乘数科跌近10%热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.83%。港资券商智富融资上市首日收盘飙涨2325.00%，盘中涨幅一度达到5262%，IPO发行价仅为4美元，股价盘中一度达到235.95美元，并触发多次熔断；尚乘数科连跌三日，收跌近10%，股价较峰值回落逾70%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌德国DAX30指数跌0.6%美国月度非农就业数据表现强于预期，加息预期升温，欧洲主要股指集体收跌。其中，德国DAX30指数跌0.6%，英国富时100指数跌0.12%，法国CAC40指数跌0.63%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.77%。4、美国WTI原油周五收高0.5% 本周累计下挫9.7%国际原油期货价格周五小幅收高，其中美国WTI油价从2月份以来的最低水平反弹。但对经济衰退的担忧使本周WTI原油录得近10%的跌幅。纽约商品交易所9月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨47美分，涨幅为0.53%，收于每桶89.01美元。本周WTI原油累计下跌逾9.7%。5、纽约黄金期货周五收跌0.7% 非农数据令金价承压周五美国黄金期货价格收跌。美国7月非农就业报告缓解了对经济衰退的担忧，同时也强化了美联储将坚持积极紧缩政策的市场预期，令黄金期货价格承压。纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货结算价收跌0.7%，收于每盎司1778美元。国际宏观1、美国7月非农暴增52.8万“吓坏”市场！美联储再获紧缩“弹药”美国非农就业总人口和失业率均已恢复至新冠大流行前的水平。不断攀升的衰退担忧似乎并没有影响到美国就业市场的炙热。美国劳工统计局5日公布的数据显示，今年7月美国非农业部门新增就业人数跳涨52.8万，显著高于预期的25.8万，此前4个月均值为38.8万。当月，美国失业率小幅下降0.1个百分点至3.5%，员工平均时薪同比增幅为5.2%，高于市场预期的4.9%。至此，美国非农就业总人口和失业率均已恢复至2020年2月新冠大流行前的水平，继续强化和支撑着美联储的鹰派立场。2、就业数据火热 市场价格体现美联储两次会议期间加息的可能性对美国7月就业数据强于预期，利率期货交易员的反应是：承认美联储决策者可能在下次于9月召开的例行政策会议之前再次加息。8月联邦基金利率期货价格一度跌至97.64，隐含的利率水平为2.36%，比当前有效联邦基金利率高出3个基点。目前有效联邦基金利率在美联储7月27日宣布的2.25%-2.5%这个联邦基金利率的目标区间之内。利率期货的隐含利率随后企稳在2.345%左右，表明两次会议之间加息的可能性微乎其微。然而，7月到9月这个异常长的会期间隔可能带来额外的风险。3、美国就业市场创下1981年来第二快复苏 美联储或再加息75基点美国7月新增非农就业52.8万人，为经济学家预期的两倍多，就业市场重回疫情前水平。尽管疫情期间的劳动力市场收缩是现代历史上最严重的，但此次反弹标志着就业市场创下1981年来第二快的复苏。凯投宏观资深美国经济学Michael Pearce称，意外远超预期的非农报告还表明美联储很可能在9月的会议上将利率提高75个基点，这将标志着美联储连续第三次以如此大的幅度加息。4、美国总统拜登签署两项法案 追究利用新冠纾困法案进行诈骗者的责任当地时间8月5日，美国总统拜登签署了两项两党法案，以追究利用新冠纾困法案实施欺诈的个人和机构的责任。据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道，这两项法案将延长针对利用工资保护计划或新冠纾困法案进行欺诈者的起诉时限，将针对借款人的刑事和民事执法时效延长至10年。拜登当天在发表讲话时表示，“美国政府将让骗子偿还其偷来的东西，并根据法律追究其责任”。5、纽约州卫生官员警告：已报告病例只是冰山一角 还有数百人被感染脊髓灰质炎当地时间8月4日，美国纽约州卫生官员称，纽约市外污水中检测出脊髓灰质炎病毒，这表明这种病毒正在社区中传播。现在这些官员再度发出警告：已经报告的病例只是“冰山一角”，还有数百人可能被感染了脊髓灰质炎病毒。纽约州卫生专员玛丽·巴塞特博士在一份声明中表示，在7月份，纽约州洛克兰县报告出现了一例脊髓灰质炎(小儿麻痹症)病例，为近十年来美国首例，后来，污水样本检测出脊髓灰质炎病毒呈阳性，这表明一场更大的疫情正在爆发中。6、美国消费者信贷大增逾400亿美元，增幅为历史次高美国6月份消费者信贷飙升，原因是信用卡余额跃升、以及包括汽车和学生贷款在内的非循环信贷创纪录增加。美联储周五公布的数据显示，消费者信贷较前月增加402亿美元，增幅仅次于3月份时创纪录的471亿美元。经济学家预期中值为增加270亿美元。这些数字未经通胀调整。包括信用卡在内的循环信贷余额增加148亿美元，非循环信贷增加254亿美元。7、美国总统拜登新冠病毒检测结果仍呈阳性 依然处于隔离状态当地时间8月5日，白宫医生称，美国总统拜登新冠病毒检测结果仍呈阳性。目前拜登咳嗽差不多完全好转，体温、脉搏、血压、呼吸频率等指标完全正常，肺部畅通。拜登依然在隔离中。8、加拿大7月份失业率继续保持历史低位当地时间8月5日，加拿大统计局公布的最新劳动力调查显示，尽管7月份减少了31000个工作岗位，但加拿大的失业率在7月份保持在4.9%的历史低位，与6月份持平。加拿大劳动力市场依然异常紧张，全国有超过100万个职位空缺。失业率是有记录以来的最低水平。公共部门雇员人数下降，而个体经营者人数增加，私营部门工人的数量几乎没有变化。9、美国参议院拟于6日就通胀削减法案进行投票据美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）当地时间8月5日报道，美国参议院拟定于6日对《2022年通胀削减法案》（Inflation Reduction Act）进行投票。据报道，民主党同意改变部分税收提案后，参议院就此法案取得了关键性进展。参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默当天在新闻发布会上表示，法案协议保留了原先包括降低处方药成本、应对气候变化、堵塞税收漏洞、加强对大型公司和富人税收以及减少赤字等核心内容。据悉，《2022年通胀削减法案》中的政策包括拨款3690亿美元用于应对气候变化，医疗保险有权就某些药品的价格谈判，限制医疗保险的自付费成本，以及延长《平价医疗法案》补贴3年。俄乌局势1、莫斯科交易所将从8月8日起允许来自友好国家的非居民进入远期市场进行交易俄罗斯莫斯科交易所8月5日晚发布公告称，从8月8日起将允许来自友好国家的非居民进入远期市场进行交易。公告同时称，将在稍晚时间宣布何时允许友好国家非居民进入股票市场进行交易。2、下周一开始 外国投资者将重返俄罗斯交融市场当地时间周五，莫斯科交易所表示，下周一(8月8日)开始，将允许那些“友好”国家的投资者重返俄罗斯股票、债券、REPO、以及衍生品市场。那些没有对俄罗斯施加制裁、或那些最终受益者为俄罗斯人的投资者将获准在俄罗斯交易。自俄乌冲突以来，为了保护俄罗斯金融市场，俄罗斯出台了一系列托市政策，外国投资者的交易也受到了限制。接下来，外国投资者的交易依然会受到限制，即仅限“友好”国家的投资者进行交易。莫斯科交易所指出，提供交易服务的银行和券商需要确认客户的母国。3、俄罗斯副总理：俄土总统已就启动用卢布支付俄天然气部分费用达成共识当地时间8月5日，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯总统普京和土耳其总统埃尔多安已就启动通过卢布支付俄罗斯向土耳其供应的天然气的部分费用达成共识。当天，俄罗斯总统普京与土耳其总统埃尔多安在俄罗斯索契举行会谈，会谈持续了近4个小时。4、俄罗斯宣布制裁62名加拿大公民当地时间8月5日，俄罗斯外交部发布公告称，作为对加拿大今年6月27日和7月7日再次延长反俄制裁的回应，俄罗斯决定禁止62名加拿大公民入境俄罗斯。这62人中包括政府官员、媒体记者、社会活动家和军方相关人士。公司新闻1、报道称甲骨文本周裁员数百人据报道，甲骨文公司本周解雇了数百名员工，因该公司优先发展其医疗保健IT服务和云业务。报道援引知情人士称，裁员主要打击了甲骨文广告和客户体验部门的员工。甲骨文裁员之际，该公司近期获得监管部门批准以283亿美元收购电子医疗记录公司Cerner Corp，愈发重视云医疗保健服务。2、又一“史诗级妖股”？港资券商智富融资上市首日一度暴涨50余倍继尚乘数科之后，美股市场或许又将迎来一只史诗级妖股。港资券商智富融资上市首日一度暴涨50余倍，股价日内最高触及235.95美元/股，盘中多次触发熔断。美东时间周五（8月5日），智富融资（股票代码MEGL）正式登陆美股市场，IPO价格为4美元/股，公司计划公开发行500万普通股，开盘价为50美元，剧烈波动之后，最终收盘涨2325%，报97美元/股。3、尚乘数科的狂野上涨变成极速暴跌 两天蒸发1600亿美元市值鲜为人知的一家香港金融服务公司此前令人目眩的狂野上涨戛然而止，紧跟着两天暴跌，其在美国上市的股票市值缩水一半。在纽约证交所上市不到一个月的尚乘数科，股价周二创历史新高，但随后到周四收盘累计暴跌52％，市值蒸发约1600亿美元，超过英特尔、摩根士丹利和高盛之类公司当前的总市值。周五，股价继续剧烈波动，涨跌摇摆，至少一次触发熔断。尽管如此，尚乘数科的成交量仍然非常低：截至纽约时间上午9：55，成交量还不到8000股。过去四个交易日，该股的日成交总量均不到50万股。4、亚马逊将以约17亿美元收购消费类机器人公司iRobot 加速智能家居业务增长亚马逊(AMZN.O)周五宣布已同意以每股61美元、总价约17亿美元的价格收购消费类机器人公司iRobot(IRBT.O)。iRobot最有名的产品是Roomba真空吸尘器，它将与语音助手Alexa、Astro机器人等一起，加入亚马逊智能家居功能清单。GlobalData Retail董事总经理Neil Saunders称，此举是亚马逊通过服务拥有部分家庭空间，并加速其零售业以外的增长的努力的一部分。ABI Research分析师Lian Jye Su称，亚马逊在家用机器人方面还没有取得多大成功，但对iRobot的收购和该公司强大的市场声誉提供了一个“消费机器人市场的巨大立足点”，可以帮助亚马逊复制其Echo系列智能音箱的成功。5、美国科技巨头集体缩编，亚马逊单季减员近十万美国科技巨头集体缩编，亚马逊单季减员近十万。近日，国际科技巨头亚马逊(NASDAQ:AMZN)公布了2022年第二季度财报，收入为1212亿美元，同比增长7%，净亏损达20亿美元，而上年同期实现净利润78亿美元。综合今年前两个季度，亚马逊净亏损近59亿美元。需要指出的是，这是亚马逊自2015年以来半年报首次出现净亏损。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908743122,"gmtCreate":1659446880569,"gmtModify":1705980424450,"author":{"id":"4092042073455650","authorId":"4092042073455650","name":"TAILO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faab8b3e8bd8cfbb51e26991cf83c311","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092042073455650","idStr":"4092042073455650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908743122","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908359803,"gmtCreate":1659324878902,"gmtModify":1676536287539,"author":{"id":"4092042073455650","authorId":"4092042073455650","name":"TAILO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faab8b3e8bd8cfbb51e26991cf83c311","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092042073455650","idStr":"4092042073455650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908359803","repostId":"2256502754","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2256502754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659301440,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2256502754?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-01 05:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Federal Reserve Kashkari says inflation is very worrying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2256502754","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　当地时间7月30日美国白宫总统医生凯文·奥康纳说，总统拜登当天新冠病毒检测结果再次呈阳性。而此前的27日，拜登新冠病毒检测结果刚刚为阴性，随后结束隔离。奥康纳表示，服用奈玛特韦/利托那韦组合的新冠患者中有一小部分人出现复检阳性。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Fed Kashkari: Inflation is \"very worrying\" and \"spreading\" throughout the economy</b><b>2. Australia's aggressive austerity policy will drag down the economy</b><b>3. As the economy heads for recession, the euro feels more pressure</b><b>There is no recession in U.S. credit card consumption data in April and June, but potential dangers have emerged</b><b>5. Arbitrage traders are taking advantage of the weak euro to win in emerging markets</b><b>6. Sydney's house price decline has not eased for the sixth consecutive month</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3a07267230c4eed9b4b8031ccbfff5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fed Kashkari: Inflation is'very worrying 'and'spreading' across the economy</b></p><p>Neel Kashkari, CEO and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said Sunday that the current inflation situation is \"very worrying\" and is \"spreading more widely across the economy.\"</p><p>\"This is very concerning. We keep getting inflation data, and we are constantly surprised by the new data that was released only in the last week. This is higher than we expected,\" Kashkary said in a financial show. \"It's not just a few categories. It's spreading wider across the economy, which is why the Fed is so urgently acting to get it under control and get it back.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3fbd75898e39d8311f60678ba4232e9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Australia's aggressive austerity will drag down economy</b></p><p>Australia is experiencing severe monetary policy tightening as the housing market reverses and consumers reduce spending, increasing the risk of an economic slowdown.</p><p>Everyone but one of the 23 economists surveyed believed the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.85% for the third consecutive month on Tuesday. That would bring its combined tightening since May to 175 basis points, the largest increase in six months since 1994.</p><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its latest quarterly forecast on Friday, which is widely expected to show lower economic growth and employment, with a sharp rise in the outlook for inflation, in line with the Treasury's outlook last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia did not publish its own interest rate forecast.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1beb5883a23cd03ced522a5adb2a25d9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Euro feels more pressure as economy heads for recession</b></p><p>The euro has fallen to its lowest level in 20 years this year, but it still looks like an unpopular currency and is under pressure from the market at a time when the economy is in recession. Many analysts said that the future trend that the euro may face is further decline.</p><p>The main reason for the economic downturn is Russia's reduction in energy supplies to Europe, which especially threatens the entire industrial system of Germany. According to Credit Suisse's estimate, the chance of the euro zone falling into recession in the next six months is 50%.</p><p>S&P Global Ratings has downgraded its outlook on Italian debt, and a key measure of risk, the spread between Italian bond yields and German bond yields, is about its highest level since 2020. Some worries about Italy's exit from the euro zone have gradually surfaced again, although this is regarded as a very distant risk.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a30126a30bed2a54770ada0b8f26adb7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>There is no recession in U.S. credit card spending data in June, but potential dangers have emerged</b></p><p>So far, U.S. credit card issuers have not felt any signs of a recession. Consumers continued to spend as of June, as can be seen in the mounting spending bills and accounts receivable from credit card companies. Of course, inflation is likely to contribute to this growth.</p><p>Bank of America said credit card spending rose 16% and debit card spending rose 6% in June from a year earlier. \"Consumers are in a better shape to navigate the U.S. slowdown than in many previous business cycles,\" said David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26962f09c5589fa2b2021e656f1ebe9d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Arbitrage traders are taking advantage of the weak euro to win big in emerging markets</b></p><p>The profits earned by traders investing in borrowed euros in emerging market currencies have reached a very considerable scale this year. \"Funding carry trades by selling euros is becoming more common,\" said Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. \"The EU seems more likely to fall into recession, and geopolitical developments should put pressure on the euro, making euro carry trading in emerging markets a very interesting option.\"</p><p>Euro-funded carry trades provide a haven for emerging market traders, taking losses across different asset classes and strategies at a time when the dollar and US yields soar. If the prospect of a US recession and Federal Reserve tightening continues to exacerbate the impact on the dollar, then euro arbitrage is likely to be irresistible to more investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef5921111c86b3112dead583e97e4b89\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Sydney house prices fall for sixth consecutive month without easing</b></p><p>House prices in Sydney have fallen for the sixth consecutive month since July, sending property prices down across Australia as rising interest rates hit demand. Research firm CoreLogic said in a report on Monday that house prices in Sydney, Australia's largest market, fell by 2.2% and Melbourne by 1.5%. They were the main drivers of the 1.4% month-on-month decline in the country's capital city composite index.</p><p>Housing market conditions are likely to deteriorate as interest rates rise for the rest of 2022, according to the head of research at CoreLogic Research. He said, \"Before interest rates began to rise, the growth rate of housing values had slowed down, but it is obvious that the market has weakened sharply since the first rate hike in May. In Sydney, the economic downturn is particularly fast, and we have seen the biggest drop in value in nearly 40 years.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Federal Reserve Kashkari says inflation is very worrying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Federal Reserve Kashkari says inflation is very worrying\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-01 05:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Fed Kashkari: Inflation is \"very worrying\" and \"spreading\" throughout the economy</b><b>2. Australia's aggressive austerity policy will drag down the economy</b><b>3. As the economy heads for recession, the euro feels more pressure</b><b>There is no recession in U.S. credit card consumption data in April and June, but potential dangers have emerged</b><b>5. Arbitrage traders are taking advantage of the weak euro to win in emerging markets</b><b>6. Sydney's house price decline has not eased for the sixth consecutive month</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3a07267230c4eed9b4b8031ccbfff5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fed Kashkari: Inflation is'very worrying 'and'spreading' across the economy</b></p><p>Neel Kashkari, CEO and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said Sunday that the current inflation situation is \"very worrying\" and is \"spreading more widely across the economy.\"</p><p>\"This is very concerning. We keep getting inflation data, and we are constantly surprised by the new data that was released only in the last week. This is higher than we expected,\" Kashkary said in a financial show. \"It's not just a few categories. It's spreading wider across the economy, which is why the Fed is so urgently acting to get it under control and get it back.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3fbd75898e39d8311f60678ba4232e9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Australia's aggressive austerity will drag down economy</b></p><p>Australia is experiencing severe monetary policy tightening as the housing market reverses and consumers reduce spending, increasing the risk of an economic slowdown.</p><p>Everyone but one of the 23 economists surveyed believed the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.85% for the third consecutive month on Tuesday. That would bring its combined tightening since May to 175 basis points, the largest increase in six months since 1994.</p><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its latest quarterly forecast on Friday, which is widely expected to show lower economic growth and employment, with a sharp rise in the outlook for inflation, in line with the Treasury's outlook last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia did not publish its own interest rate forecast.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1beb5883a23cd03ced522a5adb2a25d9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Euro feels more pressure as economy heads for recession</b></p><p>The euro has fallen to its lowest level in 20 years this year, but it still looks like an unpopular currency and is under pressure from the market at a time when the economy is in recession. Many analysts said that the future trend that the euro may face is further decline.</p><p>The main reason for the economic downturn is Russia's reduction in energy supplies to Europe, which especially threatens the entire industrial system of Germany. According to Credit Suisse's estimate, the chance of the euro zone falling into recession in the next six months is 50%.</p><p>S&P Global Ratings has downgraded its outlook on Italian debt, and a key measure of risk, the spread between Italian bond yields and German bond yields, is about its highest level since 2020. Some worries about Italy's exit from the euro zone have gradually surfaced again, although this is regarded as a very distant risk.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a30126a30bed2a54770ada0b8f26adb7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>There is no recession in U.S. credit card spending data in June, but potential dangers have emerged</b></p><p>So far, U.S. credit card issuers have not felt any signs of a recession. Consumers continued to spend as of June, as can be seen in the mounting spending bills and accounts receivable from credit card companies. Of course, inflation is likely to contribute to this growth.</p><p>Bank of America said credit card spending rose 16% and debit card spending rose 6% in June from a year earlier. \"Consumers are in a better shape to navigate the U.S. slowdown than in many previous business cycles,\" said David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26962f09c5589fa2b2021e656f1ebe9d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Arbitrage traders are taking advantage of the weak euro to win big in emerging markets</b></p><p>The profits earned by traders investing in borrowed euros in emerging market currencies have reached a very considerable scale this year. \"Funding carry trades by selling euros is becoming more common,\" said Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. \"The EU seems more likely to fall into recession, and geopolitical developments should put pressure on the euro, making euro carry trading in emerging markets a very interesting option.\"</p><p>Euro-funded carry trades provide a haven for emerging market traders, taking losses across different asset classes and strategies at a time when the dollar and US yields soar. If the prospect of a US recession and Federal Reserve tightening continues to exacerbate the impact on the dollar, then euro arbitrage is likely to be irresistible to more investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef5921111c86b3112dead583e97e4b89\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Sydney house prices fall for sixth consecutive month without easing</b></p><p>House prices in Sydney have fallen for the sixth consecutive month since July, sending property prices down across Australia as rising interest rates hit demand. Research firm CoreLogic said in a report on Monday that house prices in Sydney, Australia's largest market, fell by 2.2% and Melbourne by 1.5%. They were the main drivers of the 1.4% month-on-month decline in the country's capital city composite index.</p><p>Housing market conditions are likely to deteriorate as interest rates rise for the rest of 2022, according to the head of research at CoreLogic Research. He said, \"Before interest rates began to rise, the growth rate of housing values had slowed down, but it is obvious that the market has weakened sharply since the first rate hike in May. In Sydney, the economic downturn is particularly fast, and we have seen the biggest drop in value in nearly 40 years.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2022-08-01/doc-imizirav6209695.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3fbd75898e39d8311f60678ba4232e9","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2022-08-01/doc-imizirav6209695.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2256502754","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储卡什卡里：通货膨胀“非常令人担忧“，并在整个经济中”蔓延“2、澳大利亚激进的紧缩政策将拖累经济3、随着经济走向衰退，欧元感受到了更大压力4、6月美国信用卡消费数据没有衰退，但潜在危险已经出现5、套利交易者正利用疲软的欧元在新兴市场大获全胜6、悉尼房价连续第六个月下滑未见缓解美联储卡什卡里：通货膨胀“非常令人担忧“，并在整个经济中”蔓延“明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis）首席执行官兼行长尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）周日表示，当前的通货膨胀状况“非常令人担忧”，并“在整个经济中更广泛地蔓延”。卡什卡里在一档财经节目中表示：“这非常令人担忧。我们不断获得通胀数据，最近一周才发布的新数据，我们不断感到惊讶。这比我们预期的要高。”。“这不仅仅是几个类别。它正在更广泛地蔓延到整个经济领域，这就是为什么美联储如此紧迫地采取行动，使其得到控制并使其回落。”澳大利亚激进的紧缩政策将拖累经济随着房地产市场逆转，消费者减少支出，澳大利亚正经历着严重的货币政策紧缩，这增加了经济放缓的风险。在接受调查的23位经济学家中，除一位外，其他所有人都认为，澳大利亚储备银行将在周二连续第三个月将其关键利率上调50个基点，至1.85%。这将使其自5月份以来的综合紧缩政策达到175个基点，这是自1994年以来六个月内的最大增幅。澳大利亚联储将于周五公布季度最新预测，普遍预计将显示经济增长和就业下降，通胀前景大幅上升，与财政部上周的前景一致。澳大利亚联储没有公布自己的利率预测。随着经济走向衰退，欧元感受到了更大压力欧元今年已经跌至20年来的最低水平，但在经济陷入衰退之际，它看上去仍然是一种不受欢迎的货币，承受着来自市场的压力。许多分析师表示，欧元未来可能面临的走势是进一步下跌。经济低迷的主要原因是俄罗斯对欧洲减少能源供应，这尤其威胁到德国整个的工业体系。据瑞士信贷预计，未来六个月欧元区陷入衰退的可能性为50%。标普全球评级已然下调了对意大利债务的展望，而衡量风险的一个关键指标，即意大利债券收益率与德国债券收益率的利差，约为2020年以来的最高水平。市场对意大利退出欧元区的些许担忧又逐渐浮出水面，尽管这被视为一种非常遥远的风险。6月美国信用卡消费数据没有衰退，但潜在危险已经出现到目前为止，美国信用卡发行商没有感受到任何经济衰退迹象。从信用卡公司不断增加的消费账单和应收账款中可以看出，到6月份，消费者仍在继续消费。当然，通货膨胀很可能有助于这种增长。美国银行表示，6月份信用卡支出同比增长16%，借记卡支出增长6%。美国银行研究所（Bank of America Institute）高级经济学家戴维·廷斯利（David Tinsley）表示：“与以往许多商业周期相比，消费者在应对美国经济放缓方面的状况更好。”套利交易者正利用疲软的欧元在新兴市场大获全胜交易员用借来的欧元投资新兴市场货币所赚取的利润，在今年达到一个非常可观的规模。“通过卖出欧元为套利交易提供资金正变得越来越普遍，”富国银行（Wells Fargo）驻纽约的货币策略师布伦丹·麦肯纳表示。“欧盟似乎更有可能陷入衰退，地缘政治的发展应该给欧元带来压力，使新兴市场的欧元套利交易成为一个十分有趣的选择。”欧元资助的套利交易为新兴市场交易员提供了一个避难所，在美元和美国收益率飙升之际，他们在不同资产类别和策略上承受损失。如果美国经济衰退和美联储（Fed）紧缩的前景继续加剧对美元的冲击，那么欧元套利很可能对更多投资者来说是不可抗拒的。悉尼房价连续第六个月下滑未见缓解7月以来，悉尼房价连续第六个月下跌，随着利率上涨打击需求，导致澳大利亚各地房地产价格下跌。研究机构CoreLogic在周一的一份报告中表示，澳大利亚最大市场悉尼的房价下跌了2.2%，墨尔本下跌了1.5%，他们是该国首都城市综合指数环比下降1.4%的主要推动因素。CoreLogic Research 研究主管表示，随着2022年剩余时间利率的上升，房地产市场状况可能会恶化。他说到，“在利率开始上升之前，房屋价值的增长速度就已经放缓，但很明显，自5月份第一次加息以来，市场已经大幅走弱。在悉尼，经济下滑速度特别快，我们看到了近40年来最大幅度的价值下跌。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9905027364,"gmtCreate":1659775634860,"gmtModify":1703766483920,"author":{"id":"4092042073455650","authorId":"4092042073455650","name":"TAILO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faab8b3e8bd8cfbb51e26991cf83c311","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092042073455650","authorIdStr":"4092042073455650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905027364","repostId":"1151833716","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151833716","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1659747289,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151833716?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-06 08:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | Violent rate hike is expected to rekindle! Another \"epic\" demon stock \"\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151833716","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"市场预测美联储第三次加息75个基点的概率接近70%。拜登当天在发表讲话时表示，“美国政府将让骗子偿还其偷来的东西，并根据法律追究其责任”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in July far exceeded expectations, strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve insists on aggressive rate hike to curb inflation; ② Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared 50 times on the first day of listing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Fell nearly 10%; ③ The Moscow Exchange will allow non-residents from friendly countries to enter the forward market for trading from August 8th. Details > > Overseas markets</p><p>1. Non-agricultural data strengthens Fed rate hike expectations, U.S. stocks close mixed</p><p>US stocks U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recorded gains this week. U.S. non-farm payrolls data in July far exceeded expectations, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will insist on aggressive rate hike to curb inflation. The market predicts that the probability of the Fed's third rate hike of 75 basis points is close to 70%.</p><p>The Dow rose 76.65 points, or 0.23%, to 32803.47 points; The Nasdaq fell 63.03 points, or 0.50%, to 12657.55 points; The S&P 500 fell 6.75 points, or 0.16%, to 4,145.19 points.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday. Zhifu Capital once soared 50 times on the first day of listing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Fell nearly 10%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closing down 1.83%.</p><p>Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing closed up 2325.00% on the first day of listing, and the intraday increase once reached 5262%. The IPO issue price was only US $4, and the stock price once reached US $235.95 during the session, triggering multiple circuit breakers;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>After falling for three consecutive days, it closed down nearly 10%, and the stock price dropped by more than 70% from its peak.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.6%</p><p>The U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls data performed stronger than expected, rate hike expectations heated up, and major European stock indexes collectively closed down. Among them, the German DAX30 index fell 0.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.12%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.63%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed up 0.5% on Friday and fell 9.7% this week.</p><p>International crude oil futures prices closed slightly higher on Friday, with U.S. WTI oil prices rebounding from their lowest level since February. But recession fears sent WTI crude oil recording a nearly 10% decline this week.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for September delivery rose 47 cents, or 0.53%, to settle at $89.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI crude oil has fallen by more than 9.7% this week.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.7% on Friday, and non-agricultural data put pressure on gold prices</p><p>U.S. gold futures prices closed lower on Friday. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report in July eased concerns about an economic recession, and at the same time strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will adhere to aggressive tightening policies, putting pressure on gold futures prices.</p><p>The settlement price of gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down 0.7% at $1,778 an ounce.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The U.S. non-agricultural surge of 528,000 in July \"frightened\" the market! The Fed gets \"ammunition\" for tightening again</p><p>Both U.S. non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate have returned to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>Rising recession fears don't seem to be affecting the heat of the U.S. job market. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the 5th showed that the number of new jobs in the U.S. non-agricultural sector jumped by 528,000 in July this year, significantly higher than the expected 258,000. The average of 388,000 in the previous four months was 388,000. In that month, the U.S. unemployment rate fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%, and the average hourly wage of employees increased by 5.2% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 4.9%.</p><p>So far, the total non-farm employment population and unemployment rate in the United States have returned to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels in February 2020, continuing to strengthen and support the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>2. Hot employment data and market prices reflect the possibility of rate hike during the two meetings of the Federal Reserve</p><p>In response to the stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data in July, interest rate futures traders acknowledged that Fed policymakers may make another rate hike ahead of the next regular policy meeting in September.</p><p>In August, the price of Federal Funds rate futures once fell to 97.64, and the implied interest rate level was 2.36%, which was 3 basis points higher than the current effective Federal Funds rate. The current effective Federal Funds rate is within the Federal Funds rate target range of 2.25%-2.5% announced by the Federal Reserve on July 27.</p><p>The implied rate of interest rate futures then stabilised at around 2.345%, suggesting that there is little chance of a rate hike between the meetings. However, the unusually long interval between July and September may bring additional risks.</p><p>3. The U.S. job market recorded the second fastest recovery since 1981, and the Federal Reserve may rate hike by 75 basis points</p><p>The United States created 528,000 new non-farm jobs in July, more than twice what economists expected, and the job market returned to pre-epidemic levels.</p><p>While the labor market contraction during the pandemic was the worst in modern history, the rebound marked the second-fastest recovery of the job market since 1981. Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that the non-farm payrolls report, which unexpectedly far exceeded expectations, also indicated that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting, which will mark the third consecutive time that the Fed has raised interest rates by such a large margin. rate hike.</p><p>4. U.S. President Biden signed two bills to hold those who use the new crown relief bill to commit frauds accountable</p><p>On August 5, local time, U.S. President Biden signed two bipartisan bills to hold individuals and institutions accountable for using the COVID-19 relief bill to commit fraud. According to CNN, the two bills would extend the time limit for prosecuting fraudsters using the Paycheck Protection Program or the COVID-19 relief bill, extending the statute of limitations for criminal and civil enforcement against borrowers to 10 years. In his speech that day, Biden said, \"The U.S. government will let scammers pay back what they stole and hold them accountable according to the law.\"</p><p>5. New York state health officials warn: Reported cases are only the tip of the iceberg and hundreds of people are infected with polio</p><p>On August 4th, local time, health officials in New York State said that poliovirus was detected in sewage outside new york City, indicating that the virus was spreading in the community. Now these officials have once again warned that the reported cases are only the \"tip of the iceberg\" and hundreds more may be infected with poliovirus.</p><p>New York State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary Bassett said in a statement that in July, a case of polio (polio) was reported in Rockland County, New York, the first in the United States in nearly a decade. Later, sewage samples tested positive for the polio virus, suggesting a larger outbreak is on the way.</p><p>6. U.S. consumer credit surged by more than $40 billion, the second highest increase in history</p><p>U.S. consumer credit surged in June on a jump in credit card balances and a record increase in non-revolving credit, including auto and student loans.</p><p>Data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday showed that consumer credit increased by $40.2 billion from the previous month, second only to the record $47.1 billion in March. Economists expected a median increase of $27 billion. These figures are not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>Revolving credit balances, including credit cards, increased $14.8 billion and non-revolving credit increased $25.4 billion.</p><p>7. US President Biden still tested positive in Novel Coronavirus and is still in isolation</p><p>On August 5, local time, White House doctors said that US President Biden's Novel Coronavirus test result was still positive. At present, Biden's cough has almost completely improved, his body temperature, pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate and other indicators are completely normal, and his lungs are clear. Biden is still in quarantine.</p><p>8. Canada's unemployment rate continues to remain historically low in July</p><p>On August 5, local time, the latest labor force survey released by Statistics Canada showed that despite the loss of 31,000 jobs in July, Canada's unemployment rate remained at a historical low of 4.9% in July, the same as in June.</p><p>Canada's labour market remains unusually tight, with more than 1 million vacancies across the country. The unemployment rate is the lowest on record.</p><p>The number of public sector employees declined, while the number of self-employed people increased, and the number of private sector workers remained little changed.</p><p>9. The U.S. Senate plans to vote on the inflation reduction bill on the 6th</p><p>According to a report by CBS on August 5, local time, the U.S. Senate plans to vote on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 on the 6th.</p><p>According to reports, after the Democratic Party agreed to change some tax proposals, the Senate made key progress on this bill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said at a press conference on the same day that the bill agreement retained the original core contents including reducing the cost of prescription drugs, tackling climate change, plugging tax loopholes, strengthening taxes on large companies and the rich, and reducing deficits.</p><p>It is reported that the policies in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 include allocating $369 billion to combat climate change, Medicare's right to negotiate the price of certain drugs, limiting Medicare's out-of-pocket costs, and extending the Affordable Care Act Subsidy for 3 years.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The Moscow Exchange will allow non-residents from friendly countries to enter the forward market for trading from August 8</p><p>The Moscow Exchange of Russia announced on the evening of August 5th that non-residents from friendly countries will be allowed to enter the forward market for trading from August 8th. At the same time, the announcement said that it will announce later when non-residents of friendly countries will be allowed to enter the stock market for trading.</p><p>2. Foreign investors will return to the Russian blending market starting next Monday</p><p>On Friday local time, the Moscow Stock Exchange said that starting next Monday (August 8), investors from \"friendly\" countries will be allowed to return to the Russian stock, bond, REPO, and derivatives markets. Investors who have not imposed sanctions on Russia, or whose ultimate beneficiaries are Russians, will be allowed to trade in Russia.</p><p>Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in order to protect the Russian financial market, Russia has introduced a series of market support policies, and foreign investors' transactions have also been restricted.</p><p>Next, foreign investors' transactions will still be restricted, that is, only investors from \"friendly\" countries can trade. The Moscow Exchange pointed out that banks and brokerages providing trading services need to confirm the home country of customers.</p><p>3. Russian Deputy Prime Minister: The presidents of Russia and Turkey have reached a consensus on starting to pay part of Russian natural gas in rubles</p><p>On August 5, local time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan had reached a consensus on starting to pay part of the cost of natural gas supplied by Russia to Turkey through rubles.</p><p>On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan held talks in Sochi, Russia, which lasted nearly four hours.</p><p>4. Russia announces sanctions against 62 Canadian citizens</p><p>On August 5, local time, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an announcement stating that in response to Canada's extension of anti-Russian sanctions on June 27 and July 7 this year, Russia decided to ban 62 Canadian citizens from entering Russia. These 62 people include government officials, media reporters, social activists and military officials.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257117425\" target=\"_blank\">Oracle cuts hundreds of jobs this week, reports say</a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>The company laid off hundreds of employees this week as IT prioritized growing its healthcare IT services and cloud businesses.</p><p>The report cited people familiar with the matter as saying that the layoffs mainly hit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>Employees in the advertising and customer experience departments.</p><p>Oracle's layoffs come as the company recently received regulatory approval to acquire electronic medical records company Cerner Corp for $28.3 billion, putting an increasing focus on the cloud<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare services</a>。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257486114\" target=\"_blank\">Another \"epic demon stock\"? Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared more than 50 times on the first day of listing</a></p><p>Following AMTD Digital, the U.S. stock market may usher in another epic monster stock. On the first day of listing, Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared more than 50 times, and its stock price hit a maximum of US $235.95 per share within the day, triggering circuit breakers several times during the session.</p><p>On Friday (August 5), Eastern Time, Zhifu Capital (stock code MEGL) officially landed in the U.S. stock market with an IPO price of US $4 per share. The company plans to publicly issue 5 million ordinary shares with an opening price of US $50. After violent fluctuations, it finally closed up 2325% to US $97 per share.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257192191\" target=\"_blank\">AMTD Digital's wild rise turned into a rapid plunge, evaporating US $160 billion in market value in two days</a></p><p>The previously dizzying wild rise of a little-known Hong Kong financial services company came to an abrupt end, followed by a two-day plunge, and the market value of its US-listed stocks shrank by half.</p><p>AMTD Digital, which has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange for less than a month, hit a record high on Tuesday, but then plummeted 52% by Thursday's close, evaporating about $160 billion in its market value, more than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The current total market value of such companies.</p><p>On Friday, the stock price continued to fluctuate violently, swinging up and down, triggering a circuit breaker at least once. Despite this, AMTD Digital's trading volume is still very low: as of 9:55 a.m. New York time, there were less than 8,000 shares traded. The stock's total daily turnover has been less than 500,000 shares in each of the past four trading days.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Will acquire consumer for approximately $1.7 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Company iRobot Acceleration<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home Business Growth</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN.O) announced Friday that it has agreed to acquire consumer for $61 per share for a total of about $1.7 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Company iRobot (IRBT.O). iRobot's most famous product is the Roomba vacuum cleaner, which will work with voice assistants Alexa and Astro<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Wait together, join<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home Features Checklist. Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, called the move part of Amazon's efforts to own some home space through services and accelerate its growth beyond retail. ABI Research analyst Lian Jye Su said Amazon hasn't had much success with home robots, but the acquisition of iRobot and the company's strong market reputation provide a \"huge foothold in the consumer robotics market\" that could help Amazon replicate its Echo line<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The success of the speaker box.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257711744\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. technology giants collectively downsized, and Amazon lost nearly 100,000 employees in a single quarter</a></p><p>American technology giants collectively downsized, and Amazon lost nearly 100,000 employees in a single season.</p><p>Recently, the international technology giant Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) announced its financial report for the second quarter of 2022, with revenue of US $121.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net loss of US $2 billion, compared with a net profit of US $7.8 billion in the same period last year. Combining the first two quarters of this year, Amazon's net loss was nearly $5.9 billion. It should be pointed out that this is the first time that Amazon has experienced a net loss in its semi-annual report since 2015.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | Violent rate hike is expected to rekindle! Another \"epic\" demon stock \"\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | Violent rate hike is expected to rekindle! Another \"epic\" demon stock \"\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-06 08:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in July far exceeded expectations, strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve insists on aggressive rate hike to curb inflation; ② Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared 50 times on the first day of listing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Fell nearly 10%; ③ The Moscow Exchange will allow non-residents from friendly countries to enter the forward market for trading from August 8th. Details > > Overseas markets</p><p>1. Non-agricultural data strengthens Fed rate hike expectations, U.S. stocks close mixed</p><p>US stocks U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recorded gains this week. U.S. non-farm payrolls data in July far exceeded expectations, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will insist on aggressive rate hike to curb inflation. The market predicts that the probability of the Fed's third rate hike of 75 basis points is close to 70%.</p><p>The Dow rose 76.65 points, or 0.23%, to 32803.47 points; The Nasdaq fell 63.03 points, or 0.50%, to 12657.55 points; The S&P 500 fell 6.75 points, or 0.16%, to 4,145.19 points.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday. Zhifu Capital once soared 50 times on the first day of listing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>Fell nearly 10%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closing down 1.83%.</p><p>Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing closed up 2325.00% on the first day of listing, and the intraday increase once reached 5262%. The IPO issue price was only US $4, and the stock price once reached US $235.95 during the session, triggering multiple circuit breakers;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HKD\">AMTD Digital</a>After falling for three consecutive days, it closed down nearly 10%, and the stock price dropped by more than 70% from its peak.</p><p>3. Major European stock indexes collectively closed down, Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.6%</p><p>The U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls data performed stronger than expected, rate hike expectations heated up, and major European stock indexes collectively closed down. Among them, the German DAX30 index fell 0.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.12%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.63%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.77%.</p><p>4. U.S. WTI crude oil closed up 0.5% on Friday and fell 9.7% this week.</p><p>International crude oil futures prices closed slightly higher on Friday, with U.S. WTI oil prices rebounding from their lowest level since February. But recession fears sent WTI crude oil recording a nearly 10% decline this week.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for September delivery rose 47 cents, or 0.53%, to settle at $89.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI crude oil has fallen by more than 9.7% this week.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.7% on Friday, and non-agricultural data put pressure on gold prices</p><p>U.S. gold futures prices closed lower on Friday. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report in July eased concerns about an economic recession, and at the same time strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will adhere to aggressive tightening policies, putting pressure on gold futures prices.</p><p>The settlement price of gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down 0.7% at $1,778 an ounce.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The U.S. non-agricultural surge of 528,000 in July \"frightened\" the market! The Fed gets \"ammunition\" for tightening again</p><p>Both U.S. non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate have returned to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>Rising recession fears don't seem to be affecting the heat of the U.S. job market. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the 5th showed that the number of new jobs in the U.S. non-agricultural sector jumped by 528,000 in July this year, significantly higher than the expected 258,000. The average of 388,000 in the previous four months was 388,000. In that month, the U.S. unemployment rate fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%, and the average hourly wage of employees increased by 5.2% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 4.9%.</p><p>So far, the total non-farm employment population and unemployment rate in the United States have returned to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels in February 2020, continuing to strengthen and support the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>2. Hot employment data and market prices reflect the possibility of rate hike during the two meetings of the Federal Reserve</p><p>In response to the stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data in July, interest rate futures traders acknowledged that Fed policymakers may make another rate hike ahead of the next regular policy meeting in September.</p><p>In August, the price of Federal Funds rate futures once fell to 97.64, and the implied interest rate level was 2.36%, which was 3 basis points higher than the current effective Federal Funds rate. The current effective Federal Funds rate is within the Federal Funds rate target range of 2.25%-2.5% announced by the Federal Reserve on July 27.</p><p>The implied rate of interest rate futures then stabilised at around 2.345%, suggesting that there is little chance of a rate hike between the meetings. However, the unusually long interval between July and September may bring additional risks.</p><p>3. The U.S. job market recorded the second fastest recovery since 1981, and the Federal Reserve may rate hike by 75 basis points</p><p>The United States created 528,000 new non-farm jobs in July, more than twice what economists expected, and the job market returned to pre-epidemic levels.</p><p>While the labor market contraction during the pandemic was the worst in modern history, the rebound marked the second-fastest recovery of the job market since 1981. Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that the non-farm payrolls report, which unexpectedly far exceeded expectations, also indicated that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting, which will mark the third consecutive time that the Fed has raised interest rates by such a large margin. rate hike.</p><p>4. U.S. President Biden signed two bills to hold those who use the new crown relief bill to commit frauds accountable</p><p>On August 5, local time, U.S. President Biden signed two bipartisan bills to hold individuals and institutions accountable for using the COVID-19 relief bill to commit fraud. According to CNN, the two bills would extend the time limit for prosecuting fraudsters using the Paycheck Protection Program or the COVID-19 relief bill, extending the statute of limitations for criminal and civil enforcement against borrowers to 10 years. In his speech that day, Biden said, \"The U.S. government will let scammers pay back what they stole and hold them accountable according to the law.\"</p><p>5. New York state health officials warn: Reported cases are only the tip of the iceberg and hundreds of people are infected with polio</p><p>On August 4th, local time, health officials in New York State said that poliovirus was detected in sewage outside new york City, indicating that the virus was spreading in the community. Now these officials have once again warned that the reported cases are only the \"tip of the iceberg\" and hundreds more may be infected with poliovirus.</p><p>New York State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary Bassett said in a statement that in July, a case of polio (polio) was reported in Rockland County, New York, the first in the United States in nearly a decade. Later, sewage samples tested positive for the polio virus, suggesting a larger outbreak is on the way.</p><p>6. U.S. consumer credit surged by more than $40 billion, the second highest increase in history</p><p>U.S. consumer credit surged in June on a jump in credit card balances and a record increase in non-revolving credit, including auto and student loans.</p><p>Data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday showed that consumer credit increased by $40.2 billion from the previous month, second only to the record $47.1 billion in March. Economists expected a median increase of $27 billion. These figures are not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>Revolving credit balances, including credit cards, increased $14.8 billion and non-revolving credit increased $25.4 billion.</p><p>7. US President Biden still tested positive in Novel Coronavirus and is still in isolation</p><p>On August 5, local time, White House doctors said that US President Biden's Novel Coronavirus test result was still positive. At present, Biden's cough has almost completely improved, his body temperature, pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate and other indicators are completely normal, and his lungs are clear. Biden is still in quarantine.</p><p>8. Canada's unemployment rate continues to remain historically low in July</p><p>On August 5, local time, the latest labor force survey released by Statistics Canada showed that despite the loss of 31,000 jobs in July, Canada's unemployment rate remained at a historical low of 4.9% in July, the same as in June.</p><p>Canada's labour market remains unusually tight, with more than 1 million vacancies across the country. The unemployment rate is the lowest on record.</p><p>The number of public sector employees declined, while the number of self-employed people increased, and the number of private sector workers remained little changed.</p><p>9. The U.S. Senate plans to vote on the inflation reduction bill on the 6th</p><p>According to a report by CBS on August 5, local time, the U.S. Senate plans to vote on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 on the 6th.</p><p>According to reports, after the Democratic Party agreed to change some tax proposals, the Senate made key progress on this bill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said at a press conference on the same day that the bill agreement retained the original core contents including reducing the cost of prescription drugs, tackling climate change, plugging tax loopholes, strengthening taxes on large companies and the rich, and reducing deficits.</p><p>It is reported that the policies in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 include allocating $369 billion to combat climate change, Medicare's right to negotiate the price of certain drugs, limiting Medicare's out-of-pocket costs, and extending the Affordable Care Act Subsidy for 3 years.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The Moscow Exchange will allow non-residents from friendly countries to enter the forward market for trading from August 8</p><p>The Moscow Exchange of Russia announced on the evening of August 5th that non-residents from friendly countries will be allowed to enter the forward market for trading from August 8th. At the same time, the announcement said that it will announce later when non-residents of friendly countries will be allowed to enter the stock market for trading.</p><p>2. Foreign investors will return to the Russian blending market starting next Monday</p><p>On Friday local time, the Moscow Stock Exchange said that starting next Monday (August 8), investors from \"friendly\" countries will be allowed to return to the Russian stock, bond, REPO, and derivatives markets. Investors who have not imposed sanctions on Russia, or whose ultimate beneficiaries are Russians, will be allowed to trade in Russia.</p><p>Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in order to protect the Russian financial market, Russia has introduced a series of market support policies, and foreign investors' transactions have also been restricted.</p><p>Next, foreign investors' transactions will still be restricted, that is, only investors from \"friendly\" countries can trade. The Moscow Exchange pointed out that banks and brokerages providing trading services need to confirm the home country of customers.</p><p>3. Russian Deputy Prime Minister: The presidents of Russia and Turkey have reached a consensus on starting to pay part of Russian natural gas in rubles</p><p>On August 5, local time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan had reached a consensus on starting to pay part of the cost of natural gas supplied by Russia to Turkey through rubles.</p><p>On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan held talks in Sochi, Russia, which lasted nearly four hours.</p><p>4. Russia announces sanctions against 62 Canadian citizens</p><p>On August 5, local time, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an announcement stating that in response to Canada's extension of anti-Russian sanctions on June 27 and July 7 this year, Russia decided to ban 62 Canadian citizens from entering Russia. These 62 people include government officials, media reporters, social activists and military officials.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257117425\" target=\"_blank\">Oracle cuts hundreds of jobs this week, reports say</a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>The company laid off hundreds of employees this week as IT prioritized growing its healthcare IT services and cloud businesses.</p><p>The report cited people familiar with the matter as saying that the layoffs mainly hit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle bone inscriptions</a>Employees in the advertising and customer experience departments.</p><p>Oracle's layoffs come as the company recently received regulatory approval to acquire electronic medical records company Cerner Corp for $28.3 billion, putting an increasing focus on the cloud<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare services</a>。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257486114\" target=\"_blank\">Another \"epic demon stock\"? Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared more than 50 times on the first day of listing</a></p><p>Following AMTD Digital, the U.S. stock market may usher in another epic monster stock. On the first day of listing, Hong Kong-funded securities firm Zhifu Financing soared more than 50 times, and its stock price hit a maximum of US $235.95 per share within the day, triggering circuit breakers several times during the session.</p><p>On Friday (August 5), Eastern Time, Zhifu Capital (stock code MEGL) officially landed in the U.S. stock market with an IPO price of US $4 per share. The company plans to publicly issue 5 million ordinary shares with an opening price of US $50. After violent fluctuations, it finally closed up 2325% to US $97 per share.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257192191\" target=\"_blank\">AMTD Digital's wild rise turned into a rapid plunge, evaporating US $160 billion in market value in two days</a></p><p>The previously dizzying wild rise of a little-known Hong Kong financial services company came to an abrupt end, followed by a two-day plunge, and the market value of its US-listed stocks shrank by half.</p><p>AMTD Digital, which has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange for less than a month, hit a record high on Tuesday, but then plummeted 52% by Thursday's close, evaporating about $160 billion in its market value, more than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The current total market value of such companies.</p><p>On Friday, the stock price continued to fluctuate violently, swinging up and down, triggering a circuit breaker at least once. Despite this, AMTD Digital's trading volume is still very low: as of 9:55 a.m. New York time, there were less than 8,000 shares traded. The stock's total daily turnover has been less than 500,000 shares in each of the past four trading days.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Will acquire consumer for approximately $1.7 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Company iRobot Acceleration<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home Business Growth</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN.O) announced Friday that it has agreed to acquire consumer for $61 per share for a total of about $1.7 billion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Company iRobot (IRBT.O). iRobot's most famous product is the Roomba vacuum cleaner, which will work with voice assistants Alexa and Astro<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Wait together, join<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Home Features Checklist. Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, called the move part of Amazon's efforts to own some home space through services and accelerate its growth beyond retail. ABI Research analyst Lian Jye Su said Amazon hasn't had much success with home robots, but the acquisition of iRobot and the company's strong market reputation provide a \"huge foothold in the consumer robotics market\" that could help Amazon replicate its Echo line<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The success of the speaker box.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2257711744\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. technology giants collectively downsized, and Amazon lost nearly 100,000 employees in a single quarter</a></p><p>American technology giants collectively downsized, and Amazon lost nearly 100,000 employees in a single season.</p><p>Recently, the international technology giant Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) announced its financial report for the second quarter of 2022, with revenue of US $121.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net loss of US $2 billion, compared with a net profit of US $7.8 billion in the same period last year. Combining the first two quarters of this year, Amazon's net loss was nearly $5.9 billion. It should be pointed out that this is the first time that Amazon has experienced a net loss in its semi-annual report since 2015.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151833716","content_text":"摘要：①美国7月非农就业数据远超预期，强化了美联储坚持激进加息以遏制通胀的市场预期；②港资券商智富融资上市首日一度暴涨50倍，尚乘数科跌近10%；③莫斯科交易所将从8月8日起允许来自友好国家的非居民进入远期市场进行交易。详细>>海外市场1、非农数据强化联储加息预期美股收盘涨跌不一美股周五美股收盘涨跌不一。本周纳指与标普500指数均录得涨幅。美国7月非农就业数据远超预期，强化了美联储坚持激进加息以遏制通胀的市场预期。市场预测美联储第三次加息75个基点的概率接近70%。道指涨76.65点，涨幅为0.23%，报32803.47点；纳指跌63.03点，跌幅为0.50%，报12657.55点；标普500指数跌6.75点，跌幅为0.16%，报4145.19点。2、热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一 智富融资上市首日一度暴涨50倍尚乘数科跌近10%热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.83%。港资券商智富融资上市首日收盘飙涨2325.00%，盘中涨幅一度达到5262%，IPO发行价仅为4美元，股价盘中一度达到235.95美元，并触发多次熔断；尚乘数科连跌三日，收跌近10%，股价较峰值回落逾70%。3、欧洲主要股指集体收跌德国DAX30指数跌0.6%美国月度非农就业数据表现强于预期，加息预期升温，欧洲主要股指集体收跌。其中，德国DAX30指数跌0.6%，英国富时100指数跌0.12%，法国CAC40指数跌0.63%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.77%。4、美国WTI原油周五收高0.5% 本周累计下挫9.7%国际原油期货价格周五小幅收高，其中美国WTI油价从2月份以来的最低水平反弹。但对经济衰退的担忧使本周WTI原油录得近10%的跌幅。纽约商品交易所9月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨47美分，涨幅为0.53%，收于每桶89.01美元。本周WTI原油累计下跌逾9.7%。5、纽约黄金期货周五收跌0.7% 非农数据令金价承压周五美国黄金期货价格收跌。美国7月非农就业报告缓解了对经济衰退的担忧，同时也强化了美联储将坚持积极紧缩政策的市场预期，令黄金期货价格承压。纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金期货结算价收跌0.7%，收于每盎司1778美元。国际宏观1、美国7月非农暴增52.8万“吓坏”市场！美联储再获紧缩“弹药”美国非农就业总人口和失业率均已恢复至新冠大流行前的水平。不断攀升的衰退担忧似乎并没有影响到美国就业市场的炙热。美国劳工统计局5日公布的数据显示，今年7月美国非农业部门新增就业人数跳涨52.8万，显著高于预期的25.8万，此前4个月均值为38.8万。当月，美国失业率小幅下降0.1个百分点至3.5%，员工平均时薪同比增幅为5.2%，高于市场预期的4.9%。至此，美国非农就业总人口和失业率均已恢复至2020年2月新冠大流行前的水平，继续强化和支撑着美联储的鹰派立场。2、就业数据火热 市场价格体现美联储两次会议期间加息的可能性对美国7月就业数据强于预期，利率期货交易员的反应是：承认美联储决策者可能在下次于9月召开的例行政策会议之前再次加息。8月联邦基金利率期货价格一度跌至97.64，隐含的利率水平为2.36%，比当前有效联邦基金利率高出3个基点。目前有效联邦基金利率在美联储7月27日宣布的2.25%-2.5%这个联邦基金利率的目标区间之内。利率期货的隐含利率随后企稳在2.345%左右，表明两次会议之间加息的可能性微乎其微。然而，7月到9月这个异常长的会期间隔可能带来额外的风险。3、美国就业市场创下1981年来第二快复苏 美联储或再加息75基点美国7月新增非农就业52.8万人，为经济学家预期的两倍多，就业市场重回疫情前水平。尽管疫情期间的劳动力市场收缩是现代历史上最严重的，但此次反弹标志着就业市场创下1981年来第二快的复苏。凯投宏观资深美国经济学Michael Pearce称，意外远超预期的非农报告还表明美联储很可能在9月的会议上将利率提高75个基点，这将标志着美联储连续第三次以如此大的幅度加息。4、美国总统拜登签署两项法案 追究利用新冠纾困法案进行诈骗者的责任当地时间8月5日，美国总统拜登签署了两项两党法案，以追究利用新冠纾困法案实施欺诈的个人和机构的责任。据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道，这两项法案将延长针对利用工资保护计划或新冠纾困法案进行欺诈者的起诉时限，将针对借款人的刑事和民事执法时效延长至10年。拜登当天在发表讲话时表示，“美国政府将让骗子偿还其偷来的东西，并根据法律追究其责任”。5、纽约州卫生官员警告：已报告病例只是冰山一角 还有数百人被感染脊髓灰质炎当地时间8月4日，美国纽约州卫生官员称，纽约市外污水中检测出脊髓灰质炎病毒，这表明这种病毒正在社区中传播。现在这些官员再度发出警告：已经报告的病例只是“冰山一角”，还有数百人可能被感染了脊髓灰质炎病毒。纽约州卫生专员玛丽·巴塞特博士在一份声明中表示，在7月份，纽约州洛克兰县报告出现了一例脊髓灰质炎(小儿麻痹症)病例，为近十年来美国首例，后来，污水样本检测出脊髓灰质炎病毒呈阳性，这表明一场更大的疫情正在爆发中。6、美国消费者信贷大增逾400亿美元，增幅为历史次高美国6月份消费者信贷飙升，原因是信用卡余额跃升、以及包括汽车和学生贷款在内的非循环信贷创纪录增加。美联储周五公布的数据显示，消费者信贷较前月增加402亿美元，增幅仅次于3月份时创纪录的471亿美元。经济学家预期中值为增加270亿美元。这些数字未经通胀调整。包括信用卡在内的循环信贷余额增加148亿美元，非循环信贷增加254亿美元。7、美国总统拜登新冠病毒检测结果仍呈阳性 依然处于隔离状态当地时间8月5日，白宫医生称，美国总统拜登新冠病毒检测结果仍呈阳性。目前拜登咳嗽差不多完全好转，体温、脉搏、血压、呼吸频率等指标完全正常，肺部畅通。拜登依然在隔离中。8、加拿大7月份失业率继续保持历史低位当地时间8月5日，加拿大统计局公布的最新劳动力调查显示，尽管7月份减少了31000个工作岗位，但加拿大的失业率在7月份保持在4.9%的历史低位，与6月份持平。加拿大劳动力市场依然异常紧张，全国有超过100万个职位空缺。失业率是有记录以来的最低水平。公共部门雇员人数下降，而个体经营者人数增加，私营部门工人的数量几乎没有变化。9、美国参议院拟于6日就通胀削减法案进行投票据美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）当地时间8月5日报道，美国参议院拟定于6日对《2022年通胀削减法案》（Inflation Reduction Act）进行投票。据报道，民主党同意改变部分税收提案后，参议院就此法案取得了关键性进展。参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默当天在新闻发布会上表示，法案协议保留了原先包括降低处方药成本、应对气候变化、堵塞税收漏洞、加强对大型公司和富人税收以及减少赤字等核心内容。据悉，《2022年通胀削减法案》中的政策包括拨款3690亿美元用于应对气候变化，医疗保险有权就某些药品的价格谈判，限制医疗保险的自付费成本，以及延长《平价医疗法案》补贴3年。俄乌局势1、莫斯科交易所将从8月8日起允许来自友好国家的非居民进入远期市场进行交易俄罗斯莫斯科交易所8月5日晚发布公告称，从8月8日起将允许来自友好国家的非居民进入远期市场进行交易。公告同时称，将在稍晚时间宣布何时允许友好国家非居民进入股票市场进行交易。2、下周一开始 外国投资者将重返俄罗斯交融市场当地时间周五，莫斯科交易所表示，下周一(8月8日)开始，将允许那些“友好”国家的投资者重返俄罗斯股票、债券、REPO、以及衍生品市场。那些没有对俄罗斯施加制裁、或那些最终受益者为俄罗斯人的投资者将获准在俄罗斯交易。自俄乌冲突以来，为了保护俄罗斯金融市场，俄罗斯出台了一系列托市政策，外国投资者的交易也受到了限制。接下来，外国投资者的交易依然会受到限制，即仅限“友好”国家的投资者进行交易。莫斯科交易所指出，提供交易服务的银行和券商需要确认客户的母国。3、俄罗斯副总理：俄土总统已就启动用卢布支付俄天然气部分费用达成共识当地时间8月5日，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯总统普京和土耳其总统埃尔多安已就启动通过卢布支付俄罗斯向土耳其供应的天然气的部分费用达成共识。当天，俄罗斯总统普京与土耳其总统埃尔多安在俄罗斯索契举行会谈，会谈持续了近4个小时。4、俄罗斯宣布制裁62名加拿大公民当地时间8月5日，俄罗斯外交部发布公告称，作为对加拿大今年6月27日和7月7日再次延长反俄制裁的回应，俄罗斯决定禁止62名加拿大公民入境俄罗斯。这62人中包括政府官员、媒体记者、社会活动家和军方相关人士。公司新闻1、报道称甲骨文本周裁员数百人据报道，甲骨文公司本周解雇了数百名员工，因该公司优先发展其医疗保健IT服务和云业务。报道援引知情人士称，裁员主要打击了甲骨文广告和客户体验部门的员工。甲骨文裁员之际，该公司近期获得监管部门批准以283亿美元收购电子医疗记录公司Cerner Corp，愈发重视云医疗保健服务。2、又一“史诗级妖股”？港资券商智富融资上市首日一度暴涨50余倍继尚乘数科之后，美股市场或许又将迎来一只史诗级妖股。港资券商智富融资上市首日一度暴涨50余倍，股价日内最高触及235.95美元/股，盘中多次触发熔断。美东时间周五（8月5日），智富融资（股票代码MEGL）正式登陆美股市场，IPO价格为4美元/股，公司计划公开发行500万普通股，开盘价为50美元，剧烈波动之后，最终收盘涨2325%，报97美元/股。3、尚乘数科的狂野上涨变成极速暴跌 两天蒸发1600亿美元市值鲜为人知的一家香港金融服务公司此前令人目眩的狂野上涨戛然而止，紧跟着两天暴跌，其在美国上市的股票市值缩水一半。在纽约证交所上市不到一个月的尚乘数科，股价周二创历史新高，但随后到周四收盘累计暴跌52％，市值蒸发约1600亿美元，超过英特尔、摩根士丹利和高盛之类公司当前的总市值。周五，股价继续剧烈波动，涨跌摇摆，至少一次触发熔断。尽管如此，尚乘数科的成交量仍然非常低：截至纽约时间上午9：55，成交量还不到8000股。过去四个交易日，该股的日成交总量均不到50万股。4、亚马逊将以约17亿美元收购消费类机器人公司iRobot 加速智能家居业务增长亚马逊(AMZN.O)周五宣布已同意以每股61美元、总价约17亿美元的价格收购消费类机器人公司iRobot(IRBT.O)。iRobot最有名的产品是Roomba真空吸尘器，它将与语音助手Alexa、Astro机器人等一起，加入亚马逊智能家居功能清单。GlobalData Retail董事总经理Neil Saunders称，此举是亚马逊通过服务拥有部分家庭空间，并加速其零售业以外的增长的努力的一部分。ABI Research分析师Lian Jye Su称，亚马逊在家用机器人方面还没有取得多大成功，但对iRobot的收购和该公司强大的市场声誉提供了一个“消费机器人市场的巨大立足点”，可以帮助亚马逊复制其Echo系列智能音箱的成功。5、美国科技巨头集体缩编，亚马逊单季减员近十万美国科技巨头集体缩编，亚马逊单季减员近十万。近日，国际科技巨头亚马逊(NASDAQ:AMZN)公布了2022年第二季度财报，收入为1212亿美元，同比增长7%，净亏损达20亿美元，而上年同期实现净利润78亿美元。综合今年前两个季度，亚马逊净亏损近59亿美元。需要指出的是，这是亚马逊自2015年以来半年报首次出现净亏损。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908359803,"gmtCreate":1659324878902,"gmtModify":1676536287539,"author":{"id":"4092042073455650","authorId":"4092042073455650","name":"TAILO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faab8b3e8bd8cfbb51e26991cf83c311","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092042073455650","authorIdStr":"4092042073455650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908359803","repostId":"2256502754","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2256502754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659301440,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2256502754?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-01 05:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Federal Reserve Kashkari says inflation is very worrying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2256502754","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　当地时间7月30日美国白宫总统医生凯文·奥康纳说，总统拜登当天新冠病毒检测结果再次呈阳性。而此前的27日，拜登新冠病毒检测结果刚刚为阴性，随后结束隔离。奥康纳表示，服用奈玛特韦/利托那韦组合的新冠患者中有一小部分人出现复检阳性。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Fed Kashkari: Inflation is \"very worrying\" and \"spreading\" throughout the economy</b><b>2. Australia's aggressive austerity policy will drag down the economy</b><b>3. As the economy heads for recession, the euro feels more pressure</b><b>There is no recession in U.S. credit card consumption data in April and June, but potential dangers have emerged</b><b>5. Arbitrage traders are taking advantage of the weak euro to win in emerging markets</b><b>6. Sydney's house price decline has not eased for the sixth consecutive month</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3a07267230c4eed9b4b8031ccbfff5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fed Kashkari: Inflation is'very worrying 'and'spreading' across the economy</b></p><p>Neel Kashkari, CEO and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said Sunday that the current inflation situation is \"very worrying\" and is \"spreading more widely across the economy.\"</p><p>\"This is very concerning. We keep getting inflation data, and we are constantly surprised by the new data that was released only in the last week. This is higher than we expected,\" Kashkary said in a financial show. \"It's not just a few categories. It's spreading wider across the economy, which is why the Fed is so urgently acting to get it under control and get it back.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3fbd75898e39d8311f60678ba4232e9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Australia's aggressive austerity will drag down economy</b></p><p>Australia is experiencing severe monetary policy tightening as the housing market reverses and consumers reduce spending, increasing the risk of an economic slowdown.</p><p>Everyone but one of the 23 economists surveyed believed the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.85% for the third consecutive month on Tuesday. That would bring its combined tightening since May to 175 basis points, the largest increase in six months since 1994.</p><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its latest quarterly forecast on Friday, which is widely expected to show lower economic growth and employment, with a sharp rise in the outlook for inflation, in line with the Treasury's outlook last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia did not publish its own interest rate forecast.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1beb5883a23cd03ced522a5adb2a25d9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Euro feels more pressure as economy heads for recession</b></p><p>The euro has fallen to its lowest level in 20 years this year, but it still looks like an unpopular currency and is under pressure from the market at a time when the economy is in recession. Many analysts said that the future trend that the euro may face is further decline.</p><p>The main reason for the economic downturn is Russia's reduction in energy supplies to Europe, which especially threatens the entire industrial system of Germany. According to Credit Suisse's estimate, the chance of the euro zone falling into recession in the next six months is 50%.</p><p>S&P Global Ratings has downgraded its outlook on Italian debt, and a key measure of risk, the spread between Italian bond yields and German bond yields, is about its highest level since 2020. Some worries about Italy's exit from the euro zone have gradually surfaced again, although this is regarded as a very distant risk.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a30126a30bed2a54770ada0b8f26adb7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>There is no recession in U.S. credit card spending data in June, but potential dangers have emerged</b></p><p>So far, U.S. credit card issuers have not felt any signs of a recession. Consumers continued to spend as of June, as can be seen in the mounting spending bills and accounts receivable from credit card companies. Of course, inflation is likely to contribute to this growth.</p><p>Bank of America said credit card spending rose 16% and debit card spending rose 6% in June from a year earlier. \"Consumers are in a better shape to navigate the U.S. slowdown than in many previous business cycles,\" said David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26962f09c5589fa2b2021e656f1ebe9d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Arbitrage traders are taking advantage of the weak euro to win big in emerging markets</b></p><p>The profits earned by traders investing in borrowed euros in emerging market currencies have reached a very considerable scale this year. \"Funding carry trades by selling euros is becoming more common,\" said Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. \"The EU seems more likely to fall into recession, and geopolitical developments should put pressure on the euro, making euro carry trading in emerging markets a very interesting option.\"</p><p>Euro-funded carry trades provide a haven for emerging market traders, taking losses across different asset classes and strategies at a time when the dollar and US yields soar. If the prospect of a US recession and Federal Reserve tightening continues to exacerbate the impact on the dollar, then euro arbitrage is likely to be irresistible to more investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef5921111c86b3112dead583e97e4b89\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Sydney house prices fall for sixth consecutive month without easing</b></p><p>House prices in Sydney have fallen for the sixth consecutive month since July, sending property prices down across Australia as rising interest rates hit demand. Research firm CoreLogic said in a report on Monday that house prices in Sydney, Australia's largest market, fell by 2.2% and Melbourne by 1.5%. They were the main drivers of the 1.4% month-on-month decline in the country's capital city composite index.</p><p>Housing market conditions are likely to deteriorate as interest rates rise for the rest of 2022, according to the head of research at CoreLogic Research. He said, \"Before interest rates began to rise, the growth rate of housing values had slowed down, but it is obvious that the market has weakened sharply since the first rate hike in May. In Sydney, the economic downturn is particularly fast, and we have seen the biggest drop in value in nearly 40 years.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Federal Reserve Kashkari says inflation is very worrying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Federal Reserve Kashkari says inflation is very worrying\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-01 05:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Fed Kashkari: Inflation is \"very worrying\" and \"spreading\" throughout the economy</b><b>2. Australia's aggressive austerity policy will drag down the economy</b><b>3. As the economy heads for recession, the euro feels more pressure</b><b>There is no recession in U.S. credit card consumption data in April and June, but potential dangers have emerged</b><b>5. Arbitrage traders are taking advantage of the weak euro to win in emerging markets</b><b>6. Sydney's house price decline has not eased for the sixth consecutive month</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3a07267230c4eed9b4b8031ccbfff5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fed Kashkari: Inflation is'very worrying 'and'spreading' across the economy</b></p><p>Neel Kashkari, CEO and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said Sunday that the current inflation situation is \"very worrying\" and is \"spreading more widely across the economy.\"</p><p>\"This is very concerning. We keep getting inflation data, and we are constantly surprised by the new data that was released only in the last week. This is higher than we expected,\" Kashkary said in a financial show. \"It's not just a few categories. It's spreading wider across the economy, which is why the Fed is so urgently acting to get it under control and get it back.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3fbd75898e39d8311f60678ba4232e9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Australia's aggressive austerity will drag down economy</b></p><p>Australia is experiencing severe monetary policy tightening as the housing market reverses and consumers reduce spending, increasing the risk of an economic slowdown.</p><p>Everyone but one of the 23 economists surveyed believed the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.85% for the third consecutive month on Tuesday. That would bring its combined tightening since May to 175 basis points, the largest increase in six months since 1994.</p><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its latest quarterly forecast on Friday, which is widely expected to show lower economic growth and employment, with a sharp rise in the outlook for inflation, in line with the Treasury's outlook last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia did not publish its own interest rate forecast.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1beb5883a23cd03ced522a5adb2a25d9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Euro feels more pressure as economy heads for recession</b></p><p>The euro has fallen to its lowest level in 20 years this year, but it still looks like an unpopular currency and is under pressure from the market at a time when the economy is in recession. Many analysts said that the future trend that the euro may face is further decline.</p><p>The main reason for the economic downturn is Russia's reduction in energy supplies to Europe, which especially threatens the entire industrial system of Germany. According to Credit Suisse's estimate, the chance of the euro zone falling into recession in the next six months is 50%.</p><p>S&P Global Ratings has downgraded its outlook on Italian debt, and a key measure of risk, the spread between Italian bond yields and German bond yields, is about its highest level since 2020. Some worries about Italy's exit from the euro zone have gradually surfaced again, although this is regarded as a very distant risk.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a30126a30bed2a54770ada0b8f26adb7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>There is no recession in U.S. credit card spending data in June, but potential dangers have emerged</b></p><p>So far, U.S. credit card issuers have not felt any signs of a recession. Consumers continued to spend as of June, as can be seen in the mounting spending bills and accounts receivable from credit card companies. Of course, inflation is likely to contribute to this growth.</p><p>Bank of America said credit card spending rose 16% and debit card spending rose 6% in June from a year earlier. \"Consumers are in a better shape to navigate the U.S. slowdown than in many previous business cycles,\" said David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26962f09c5589fa2b2021e656f1ebe9d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Arbitrage traders are taking advantage of the weak euro to win big in emerging markets</b></p><p>The profits earned by traders investing in borrowed euros in emerging market currencies have reached a very considerable scale this year. \"Funding carry trades by selling euros is becoming more common,\" said Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. \"The EU seems more likely to fall into recession, and geopolitical developments should put pressure on the euro, making euro carry trading in emerging markets a very interesting option.\"</p><p>Euro-funded carry trades provide a haven for emerging market traders, taking losses across different asset classes and strategies at a time when the dollar and US yields soar. If the prospect of a US recession and Federal Reserve tightening continues to exacerbate the impact on the dollar, then euro arbitrage is likely to be irresistible to more investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef5921111c86b3112dead583e97e4b89\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Sydney house prices fall for sixth consecutive month without easing</b></p><p>House prices in Sydney have fallen for the sixth consecutive month since July, sending property prices down across Australia as rising interest rates hit demand. Research firm CoreLogic said in a report on Monday that house prices in Sydney, Australia's largest market, fell by 2.2% and Melbourne by 1.5%. They were the main drivers of the 1.4% month-on-month decline in the country's capital city composite index.</p><p>Housing market conditions are likely to deteriorate as interest rates rise for the rest of 2022, according to the head of research at CoreLogic Research. He said, \"Before interest rates began to rise, the growth rate of housing values had slowed down, but it is obvious that the market has weakened sharply since the first rate hike in May. In Sydney, the economic downturn is particularly fast, and we have seen the biggest drop in value in nearly 40 years.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2022-08-01/doc-imizirav6209695.shtml?finpagefr=p_115\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3fbd75898e39d8311f60678ba4232e9","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2022-08-01/doc-imizirav6209695.shtml?finpagefr=p_115","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2256502754","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储卡什卡里：通货膨胀“非常令人担忧“，并在整个经济中”蔓延“2、澳大利亚激进的紧缩政策将拖累经济3、随着经济走向衰退，欧元感受到了更大压力4、6月美国信用卡消费数据没有衰退，但潜在危险已经出现5、套利交易者正利用疲软的欧元在新兴市场大获全胜6、悉尼房价连续第六个月下滑未见缓解美联储卡什卡里：通货膨胀“非常令人担忧“，并在整个经济中”蔓延“明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis）首席执行官兼行长尼尔·卡什卡里（Neel Kashkari）周日表示，当前的通货膨胀状况“非常令人担忧”，并“在整个经济中更广泛地蔓延”。卡什卡里在一档财经节目中表示：“这非常令人担忧。我们不断获得通胀数据，最近一周才发布的新数据，我们不断感到惊讶。这比我们预期的要高。”。“这不仅仅是几个类别。它正在更广泛地蔓延到整个经济领域，这就是为什么美联储如此紧迫地采取行动，使其得到控制并使其回落。”澳大利亚激进的紧缩政策将拖累经济随着房地产市场逆转，消费者减少支出，澳大利亚正经历着严重的货币政策紧缩，这增加了经济放缓的风险。在接受调查的23位经济学家中，除一位外，其他所有人都认为，澳大利亚储备银行将在周二连续第三个月将其关键利率上调50个基点，至1.85%。这将使其自5月份以来的综合紧缩政策达到175个基点，这是自1994年以来六个月内的最大增幅。澳大利亚联储将于周五公布季度最新预测，普遍预计将显示经济增长和就业下降，通胀前景大幅上升，与财政部上周的前景一致。澳大利亚联储没有公布自己的利率预测。随着经济走向衰退，欧元感受到了更大压力欧元今年已经跌至20年来的最低水平，但在经济陷入衰退之际，它看上去仍然是一种不受欢迎的货币，承受着来自市场的压力。许多分析师表示，欧元未来可能面临的走势是进一步下跌。经济低迷的主要原因是俄罗斯对欧洲减少能源供应，这尤其威胁到德国整个的工业体系。据瑞士信贷预计，未来六个月欧元区陷入衰退的可能性为50%。标普全球评级已然下调了对意大利债务的展望，而衡量风险的一个关键指标，即意大利债券收益率与德国债券收益率的利差，约为2020年以来的最高水平。市场对意大利退出欧元区的些许担忧又逐渐浮出水面，尽管这被视为一种非常遥远的风险。6月美国信用卡消费数据没有衰退，但潜在危险已经出现到目前为止，美国信用卡发行商没有感受到任何经济衰退迹象。从信用卡公司不断增加的消费账单和应收账款中可以看出，到6月份，消费者仍在继续消费。当然，通货膨胀很可能有助于这种增长。美国银行表示，6月份信用卡支出同比增长16%，借记卡支出增长6%。美国银行研究所（Bank of America Institute）高级经济学家戴维·廷斯利（David Tinsley）表示：“与以往许多商业周期相比，消费者在应对美国经济放缓方面的状况更好。”套利交易者正利用疲软的欧元在新兴市场大获全胜交易员用借来的欧元投资新兴市场货币所赚取的利润，在今年达到一个非常可观的规模。“通过卖出欧元为套利交易提供资金正变得越来越普遍，”富国银行（Wells Fargo）驻纽约的货币策略师布伦丹·麦肯纳表示。“欧盟似乎更有可能陷入衰退，地缘政治的发展应该给欧元带来压力，使新兴市场的欧元套利交易成为一个十分有趣的选择。”欧元资助的套利交易为新兴市场交易员提供了一个避难所，在美元和美国收益率飙升之际，他们在不同资产类别和策略上承受损失。如果美国经济衰退和美联储（Fed）紧缩的前景继续加剧对美元的冲击，那么欧元套利很可能对更多投资者来说是不可抗拒的。悉尼房价连续第六个月下滑未见缓解7月以来，悉尼房价连续第六个月下跌，随着利率上涨打击需求，导致澳大利亚各地房地产价格下跌。研究机构CoreLogic在周一的一份报告中表示，澳大利亚最大市场悉尼的房价下跌了2.2%，墨尔本下跌了1.5%，他们是该国首都城市综合指数环比下降1.4%的主要推动因素。CoreLogic Research 研究主管表示，随着2022年剩余时间利率的上升，房地产市场状况可能会恶化。他说到，“在利率开始上升之前，房屋价值的增长速度就已经放缓，但很明显，自5月份第一次加息以来，市场已经大幅走弱。在悉尼，经济下滑速度特别快，我们看到了近40年来最大幅度的价值下跌。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927681911,"gmtCreate":1672469289134,"gmtModify":1676538695510,"author":{"id":"4092042073455650","authorId":"4092042073455650","name":"TAILO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faab8b3e8bd8cfbb51e26991cf83c311","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092042073455650","authorIdStr":"4092042073455650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ &nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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21:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Bridgewater Dalio's latest conversation! Bluntly go long in the Chinese market for a long time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163125162","media":"资识","summary":"精彩观点1、货币政策会持续收紧，直到经济带来的痛苦大于通胀带来的痛苦。2、当通胀过高，债券持有者将会获得一个很差的回报，但很多人没有意识到这一点，因为他们一直认为风险最小的投资是现金，而他们因为现金损","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Wonderful point of view</b></p><p><b>1. Monetary policy will continue to tighten until the pain caused by the economy is greater than the pain caused by inflation.</b><b>2. When inflation is too high, bondholders will get a poor return, but many people don't realize this because they always think that the least risky investment is cash, and they lose a lot of money because of cash.</b><b>3. At present, we mainly rely on the cash balance accumulated some time ago to balance our expenditures, so you will see that the durable consumer goods industries such as housing and automobiles begin to tighten. You will see cash dry up and loan delinquency rates rise. You will see all these very classic indicators in the early days of the recession. At this point, economic growth will become negligible.</b><b>4. Republicans are more conservative than ever, Democrats are more liberal than ever, and cross-party voting is the fewest since 1900.</b><b>5. For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they think that a sharp rise in assets is a good investment, and it has nothing to do with whether it is expensive or not.</b><b>6. I have been long in the Chinese market for a long time. The current situation is that the price of Chinese assets is very low.</b>The above are the views expressed by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, in a conversation with MarketWatch editor-in-chief Mark DeCambre on September 21, local time in the United States.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, raising the Federal Funds rate target range to between 3.00% and 3.25%. This is the fifth rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year and the third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points, the largest intensive rate hike since 1981.</p><p>In this regard, Dalio said that this is far from over.</p><p><b>\"You often hear them (the Fed) talk about raising interest rates, fighting inflation, but they don't talk about the pain that comes from it... monetary policy will keep tightening until the pain caused by the economy is greater than the pain caused by inflation.\"</b></p><p>Dalio believes that the interest rate must reach about 4%-5% or even higher before it can be stabilized. In the next 2023-2024, the economy will continue to deteriorate, and stagflation will emerge in early 2023.</p><p>This is the result of the combined action of many factors.</p><p>Dalio said that the United States is now suffering from the worst political polarization in more than a century, and now it is facing the largest gap between the rich and the poor so far. Almost everything has obvious internal arguments.</p><p><b>\"The internal conflict you see is an ideological conflict, an economic conflict. Because of the huge debt and financial assets, and the constant lack of opportunities, we need to adjust the economic structure.\"</b></p><p>In addition to internal conflicts, the international situation is also in dire straits. \"<b>Supply chain breaks and resulting inefficiencies, coupled with a lot of costs stacked up, is what makes inflation high.</b>”</p><p>Dalio has repeatedly stressed that cash is garbage, but that doesn't mean investors will be helpless. At the end of the article, he put forward three coping methods. He also stressed not to focus on market timing. \"<b>For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they believe that a sharp increase in assets is a good investment and has nothing to do with whether it is expensive or not. \"</b></p><p>According to Dalio, Bridgewater's Pure Alpha fund is up 25% so far this year, slightly lower than the 32% gain through June reported by Bloomberg earlier this year, but still well above the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f859412d3bc813acbdb1ec602a2877a5\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Smart Investor overseas researchers listened to this dialogue and exchange on the spot, and translated the full text of Dalio's speech and shared it with you.</b></p><p><b>Monetary policy will continue to tighten</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>As early as May 2021, you said that the current problem is that the government needs more money, so they have to print more money, the prices of stocks, real estate and everything will skyrocket, and the dollar will depreciate. (Click to go directly: Congtou Fine Translation | Dalio talks with CoinDesk Chief Content Officer in May 2021) How did you know at that time? At that time, inflation wasn't where it is now. What signals did you see that made you think so?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>It's not complicated. If you give people a lot of money and credit, they will spend a lot of money. When you have a lot of money and credit issued, there is a lot of expenditure for goods, services, and financial assets.</p><p>So that's some of the calculations that aren't difficult. What I want to do most is to teach a man to fish instead of teach a man to fish. So I want to take the opportunity to explain some of the market mechanisms.</p><p>Investors think cash is safe, it's not very liquid, but if you think that way, you're losing a lot of purchasing power, you're losing a lot of wealth.</p><p>These basic things are exactly what I want to convey.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>What do you think the Fed needs to do?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>The Fed has always made a trade-off between propelling the economy and addressing inflation, because when they put more money and credit in, more spending is generated.</p><p><b>So prices get expensive, and then they take the money away and make prices even more expensive.</b>You often hear them talk about raising interest rates, fighting inflation,<b>But they don't talk about the pain caused by this.</b></p><p>All they have to do is balance.<b>Monetary policy will continue to tighten until the pain caused by the economy outweighs the pain caused by inflation.</b></p><p>The question is what level interest rates have to reach before they stabilize.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>What level do you think it might be?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I think it will be between 4% and 5%.</p><p>Now people have no money in their hands, and money is depreciating. If you take the money in your hands, deposit it in the bank or invest it, your real return will be negative. So they have to raise short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates to about 4.5%, possibly a little higher.</p><p>That could leave net inflation to zero.</p><p>But the market economy will suffer anyway, and raising interest rates will affect all the broad classes of assets because these assets have to compete with higher interest rates, such as financing becoming more expensive and so on. So this has a negative impact on equities and other markets, and then creates credit spreads, with a series of consequences.</p><p>I guess things might go that way.</p><p><b>Rate hike will bring a 20% negative impact to the stock market</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>You mentioned recently that rate hike may make the US stock market fall by 20%. Do you still think so?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I still believe that now. Higher interest rates will intensify competition among assets, thus causing stock prices to fall and damaging earnings and the economy.</p><p>Another is the discount rate. When the discount rate rises, the present value of discounted future cash flows will decrease, thus having a negative impact.</p><p>When you invest, you are paying the future cash flow of this company in one lump sum.</p><p>We use the discount rate to calculate the present value of future cash flows, and when the interest rate drops to or near zero, you don't change the discount rate anymore. This raises the price of all assets, everything, including house prices, goes up.</p><p>And when we raise interest rates, if the cash flow is the same, another negative effect is that the value of all asset classes will decrease.</p><p>But the cash flow cannot be exactly the same because there will be fewer purchases of assets, not only of financial assets, but also of goods and services.</p><p>You will find that,<b>Inflation will come with economic setbacks.</b></p><p><b>Fed Will Sell More Bonds</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Let's change direction a little bit. You have spent a long time studying the history of great powers. What are your thoughts?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Let me explain that I am a very practical person, and making money in the market is my game and what I am doing.</p><p>I realized many times that things that had never happened before were happening now. It is precisely because we studied the Great Depression that we could predict the financial crises of 2000 and 2008.</p><p>In our lives, there are three things that have never happened but are very important.</p><p>The first is the amount of debt we have and the rate of debt generation, and the monetization of debt, where the central bank prints money and buys financial assets. This was most obvious in the 1930s.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Since 2020, we have printed a lot of money and overissued it because we must stimulate the global economy.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>We live in a world where the demand for money is very great.</p><p>When I think about how much I'm going to spend, I have to think about what areas I can spend without so that I can spend it on other things, after all, money is limited.</p><p>We are now facing a chaotic situation, which may be the gap between the rich and the poor, it may be the infrastructure, it may be the green economy, or it may be the huge costs of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The world is becoming more and more threatening, and we have to spend more money on national defense.</p><p><b>Everyone says we're going to spend more money, and in a sense we do need to spend more money. But where's the money? Where does the money come from?</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>They're going to print money.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Now, even though the fiscal deficit is falling, we still have a considerable budget deficit, about 5% of GDP, which means that the federal government will have to sell bonds.</p><p>The Fed says it's going to reduce its balance sheet, so they're going to sell another 5% of GDP in bonds, which is 10% of GDP.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>The balance sheet is still very rich, almost $9 trillion.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Yes, but their plan is to go down to $1.1 trillion in the next few years. This means that they will sell bonds, and they must sell bonds. But who's going to buy these bonds?</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Will China come to buy these bonds?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>They wouldn't buy so much either.</p><p>Investors'bond portfolios have changed. We've had a 40-year bond bull market, so everyone who holds a bond feels that bond prices are going to rise and is increasingly holding on to that view over those 40 years.</p><p>Then the interest rate dropped to a very low level, and someone held bonds with negative real returns, and everyone wanted to sell them.</p><p>The question is, how to balance this?</p><p>When reducing personal credit, people spend less, so people must always pay attention to the balance sheet. Debt is the easiest thing to stimulate the economy. In other words, you can get money by borrowing debt.</p><p>Hardly anyone pays attention to where the money is coming from or where it leads to.</p><p><b>When inflation is too high, bondholders will get a poor return, but many people don't realize this because they always think that the least risky investment is cash, and they lose a lot of money because of cash.</b></p><p><b>Now the United States has the most internal conflicts since 1900</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Given the environment we're in right now, is cash still garbage in terms of economic benefits?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Cash will only bring negative real returns, so it is still a junk investment compared to other investments.</p><p>And one more thing,<b>Now we have the largest political and internal conflicts since 1900, even more than in Germany in the 1930s, mainly between the left and the right.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>How did you come to this conclusion?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I use the wealth gap as a measure, and I also pay attention to the voting results.</p><p>If conservative and liberal are distinguished according to the number of economic policies,<b>Republicans are more conservative than ever, Democrats are more liberal than ever, and cross-party voting is the fewest since 1900.</b></p><p>And now facing the biggest gap between the rich and the poor so far, almost everything has obvious internal debate.</p><p>You will find that some facts still make people doubt. For example, in the next presidential election, will both sides accept the election results?</p><p>The internal conflict that you see is an ideological conflict, it's an economic conflict, and because of the huge debt and financial assets, and the constant lack of opportunities, we need to make a restructuring of the economy.</p><p>My wife's job in Connecticut, is about disconnected high school students in poor communities.</p><p>To give you a data, Connecticut is one of the richest states in the United States, and 22% of high school students in the state are either disengaged or disconnected. Disengagement means that their absenteeism rate is greater than 25% and they fail courses; Disconnect means they don't know where they are anymore.</p><p>Poverty is the most important problem for a city, and there are many problems caused by poverty, which leads to many conflicts at the economic level.</p><p>What does this mean for taxes? What does it mean for wealth redistribution? What will the future be like? Therefore, the political level of the United States will also face various problems.</p><p>You'll see residents moving from one place to another, and that movement can have an impact on the market. Because you change the tax rate and you also change other factors that will have an impact on the market, which will have a great impact on our lives.</p><p><b>We are very close to recession right now</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Do you think we are in a recession now or we are about to enter it?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>We are very close to recession at present, because the growth rate is already zero. It doesn't matter whether the growth rate is higher or lower. What matters is that we are very close to this red line.</p><p><b>At present, we mainly rely on the cash balance accumulated some time ago to balance expenditures, so you will see the consumer durables industries such as housing and automobiles start to tighten, you will see cash dry up, loan delinquency rates rise, and you will see all these very classic indicators in the early days. At this point, economic growth will become negligible.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Will the depression intensify in 2023 or 2024?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I think the economy will deteriorate in 2023 or 2024, and it will also have an impact on the election.</p><p>Another point that cannot be ignored is international conflicts. These points complement each other, such as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the inflation and economic environment of the entire world, especially on Europe.</p><p>If we have a conflict with China, it will have an impact on the economy in many aspects. In some cases, these factors are superimposed and have an impact. These situations are very important. The reason why I study 500 years of history is because sometimes history repeats itself.</p><p><b>Stagflation will emerge in 2023</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>This is the law of the ever-changing world order. So to sum it up, the 2023-2024 recession will be long-lasting and strong?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>A lot depends on the nature of these things happening at the same time. I think there will be stagflation.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Why is there stagflation? The current unemployment rate in the labor market is only 3%, which looks very strong. I understand that we are seeing signs of recession now, but it hasn't reached the level of stagflation yet, is it?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Yes, what should be the bigger concern for Fed policy? It is not the unemployment rate, but they are actually the cause of the unemployment rate problem.</p><p>Reducing free cash flow, increasing unemployment, adopting liquidity crunch, people spending less... We may be on the verge of this change right now.</p><p>At the same time, we have to deal with external conflicts,<b>There are five forms of war in this world, including trade war, science and technology war, war of geopolitical influence, capital war and military war.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Is the tech war just competing for tech? Or will there be a cyber attack?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>It may evolve into a cyber attack, and the science and technology developed by the country will have great military significance. Therefore, no matter which party wins the scientific and technological war, it means that it will also win the military war.</p><p>There is a conflict between the United States and China for various reasons, and there is a technological war between the two. This war also represents both sides' desire to be self-sufficient in the face of possible sanctions.</p><p><b>If one day the United States wants to boycott China, the economic pressure will be enormous</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Are you still long on the Chinese market?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I have been long in the Chinese market for a long time, and the current situation is that the price of Chinese assets is very low.</p><p>I want to go back to the previous topic, 22% of our manufactured goods come from China, and if one day China becomes in the same situation as Russia, in other words,<b>If we all have to boycott China one day, the pressure on the economy is enormous</b>。</p><p>What I want to say is that even a country with less economic strength like Russia will have a great impact on the world economy due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>This is equivalent to answering your first question,<b>Supply chain breaks and resulting inefficiencies, coupled with a lot of costs stacked up, is what makes inflation high.</b></p><p><b>I think stagflation will emerge in 2023,</b>What we should worry about is how it will affect the 2024 election.</p><p>Because if the economy is not good, people will start to be angry, because quite a few people are suffering.</p><p><b>Cash is garbage, but you can do these 3 things</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>You mentioned that holding cash is a terrible asset and bonds are underperforming, so what do we do?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>The first thing is to look at the rate of return on your assets, including the actual amount of cash denominated in dollars, which is equivalent to returning in<b>Assess your purchasing power.</b></p><p>Next you should<b>Think about your asset kinds</b>For example, inflation-indexed bonds may be better than nominal bonds.</p><p>Third, you need<b>Diversified portfolio</b>, although I think most assets are in a downward channel, as an individual investor, I do not support timing because the world is changing rapidly.</p><p>One of the most important things you have to do is to build a balanced portfolio instead of focusing on market timing.</p><p>You need to pay attention to the correlation between assets,<b>For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they think that a sharp rise in assets is a good investment, regardless of whether it is expensive or not.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1590499050225","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bridgewater Dalio's latest conversation! Bluntly go long in the Chinese market for a long time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBridgewater Dalio's latest conversation! Bluntly go long in the Chinese market for a long time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">资识</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-23 21:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Wonderful point of view</b></p><p><b>1. Monetary policy will continue to tighten until the pain caused by the economy is greater than the pain caused by inflation.</b><b>2. When inflation is too high, bondholders will get a poor return, but many people don't realize this because they always think that the least risky investment is cash, and they lose a lot of money because of cash.</b><b>3. At present, we mainly rely on the cash balance accumulated some time ago to balance our expenditures, so you will see that the durable consumer goods industries such as housing and automobiles begin to tighten. You will see cash dry up and loan delinquency rates rise. You will see all these very classic indicators in the early days of the recession. At this point, economic growth will become negligible.</b><b>4. Republicans are more conservative than ever, Democrats are more liberal than ever, and cross-party voting is the fewest since 1900.</b><b>5. For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they think that a sharp rise in assets is a good investment, and it has nothing to do with whether it is expensive or not.</b><b>6. I have been long in the Chinese market for a long time. The current situation is that the price of Chinese assets is very low.</b>The above are the views expressed by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, in a conversation with MarketWatch editor-in-chief Mark DeCambre on September 21, local time in the United States.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, raising the Federal Funds rate target range to between 3.00% and 3.25%. This is the fifth rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year and the third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points, the largest intensive rate hike since 1981.</p><p>In this regard, Dalio said that this is far from over.</p><p><b>\"You often hear them (the Fed) talk about raising interest rates, fighting inflation, but they don't talk about the pain that comes from it... monetary policy will keep tightening until the pain caused by the economy is greater than the pain caused by inflation.\"</b></p><p>Dalio believes that the interest rate must reach about 4%-5% or even higher before it can be stabilized. In the next 2023-2024, the economy will continue to deteriorate, and stagflation will emerge in early 2023.</p><p>This is the result of the combined action of many factors.</p><p>Dalio said that the United States is now suffering from the worst political polarization in more than a century, and now it is facing the largest gap between the rich and the poor so far. Almost everything has obvious internal arguments.</p><p><b>\"The internal conflict you see is an ideological conflict, an economic conflict. Because of the huge debt and financial assets, and the constant lack of opportunities, we need to adjust the economic structure.\"</b></p><p>In addition to internal conflicts, the international situation is also in dire straits. \"<b>Supply chain breaks and resulting inefficiencies, coupled with a lot of costs stacked up, is what makes inflation high.</b>”</p><p>Dalio has repeatedly stressed that cash is garbage, but that doesn't mean investors will be helpless. At the end of the article, he put forward three coping methods. He also stressed not to focus on market timing. \"<b>For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they believe that a sharp increase in assets is a good investment and has nothing to do with whether it is expensive or not. \"</b></p><p>According to Dalio, Bridgewater's Pure Alpha fund is up 25% so far this year, slightly lower than the 32% gain through June reported by Bloomberg earlier this year, but still well above the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f859412d3bc813acbdb1ec602a2877a5\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Smart Investor overseas researchers listened to this dialogue and exchange on the spot, and translated the full text of Dalio's speech and shared it with you.</b></p><p><b>Monetary policy will continue to tighten</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>As early as May 2021, you said that the current problem is that the government needs more money, so they have to print more money, the prices of stocks, real estate and everything will skyrocket, and the dollar will depreciate. (Click to go directly: Congtou Fine Translation | Dalio talks with CoinDesk Chief Content Officer in May 2021) How did you know at that time? At that time, inflation wasn't where it is now. What signals did you see that made you think so?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>It's not complicated. If you give people a lot of money and credit, they will spend a lot of money. When you have a lot of money and credit issued, there is a lot of expenditure for goods, services, and financial assets.</p><p>So that's some of the calculations that aren't difficult. What I want to do most is to teach a man to fish instead of teach a man to fish. So I want to take the opportunity to explain some of the market mechanisms.</p><p>Investors think cash is safe, it's not very liquid, but if you think that way, you're losing a lot of purchasing power, you're losing a lot of wealth.</p><p>These basic things are exactly what I want to convey.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>What do you think the Fed needs to do?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>The Fed has always made a trade-off between propelling the economy and addressing inflation, because when they put more money and credit in, more spending is generated.</p><p><b>So prices get expensive, and then they take the money away and make prices even more expensive.</b>You often hear them talk about raising interest rates, fighting inflation,<b>But they don't talk about the pain caused by this.</b></p><p>All they have to do is balance.<b>Monetary policy will continue to tighten until the pain caused by the economy outweighs the pain caused by inflation.</b></p><p>The question is what level interest rates have to reach before they stabilize.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>What level do you think it might be?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I think it will be between 4% and 5%.</p><p>Now people have no money in their hands, and money is depreciating. If you take the money in your hands, deposit it in the bank or invest it, your real return will be negative. So they have to raise short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates to about 4.5%, possibly a little higher.</p><p>That could leave net inflation to zero.</p><p>But the market economy will suffer anyway, and raising interest rates will affect all the broad classes of assets because these assets have to compete with higher interest rates, such as financing becoming more expensive and so on. So this has a negative impact on equities and other markets, and then creates credit spreads, with a series of consequences.</p><p>I guess things might go that way.</p><p><b>Rate hike will bring a 20% negative impact to the stock market</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>You mentioned recently that rate hike may make the US stock market fall by 20%. Do you still think so?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I still believe that now. Higher interest rates will intensify competition among assets, thus causing stock prices to fall and damaging earnings and the economy.</p><p>Another is the discount rate. When the discount rate rises, the present value of discounted future cash flows will decrease, thus having a negative impact.</p><p>When you invest, you are paying the future cash flow of this company in one lump sum.</p><p>We use the discount rate to calculate the present value of future cash flows, and when the interest rate drops to or near zero, you don't change the discount rate anymore. This raises the price of all assets, everything, including house prices, goes up.</p><p>And when we raise interest rates, if the cash flow is the same, another negative effect is that the value of all asset classes will decrease.</p><p>But the cash flow cannot be exactly the same because there will be fewer purchases of assets, not only of financial assets, but also of goods and services.</p><p>You will find that,<b>Inflation will come with economic setbacks.</b></p><p><b>Fed Will Sell More Bonds</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Let's change direction a little bit. You have spent a long time studying the history of great powers. What are your thoughts?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Let me explain that I am a very practical person, and making money in the market is my game and what I am doing.</p><p>I realized many times that things that had never happened before were happening now. It is precisely because we studied the Great Depression that we could predict the financial crises of 2000 and 2008.</p><p>In our lives, there are three things that have never happened but are very important.</p><p>The first is the amount of debt we have and the rate of debt generation, and the monetization of debt, where the central bank prints money and buys financial assets. This was most obvious in the 1930s.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Since 2020, we have printed a lot of money and overissued it because we must stimulate the global economy.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>We live in a world where the demand for money is very great.</p><p>When I think about how much I'm going to spend, I have to think about what areas I can spend without so that I can spend it on other things, after all, money is limited.</p><p>We are now facing a chaotic situation, which may be the gap between the rich and the poor, it may be the infrastructure, it may be the green economy, or it may be the huge costs of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The world is becoming more and more threatening, and we have to spend more money on national defense.</p><p><b>Everyone says we're going to spend more money, and in a sense we do need to spend more money. But where's the money? Where does the money come from?</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>They're going to print money.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Now, even though the fiscal deficit is falling, we still have a considerable budget deficit, about 5% of GDP, which means that the federal government will have to sell bonds.</p><p>The Fed says it's going to reduce its balance sheet, so they're going to sell another 5% of GDP in bonds, which is 10% of GDP.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>The balance sheet is still very rich, almost $9 trillion.</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Yes, but their plan is to go down to $1.1 trillion in the next few years. This means that they will sell bonds, and they must sell bonds. But who's going to buy these bonds?</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Will China come to buy these bonds?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>They wouldn't buy so much either.</p><p>Investors'bond portfolios have changed. We've had a 40-year bond bull market, so everyone who holds a bond feels that bond prices are going to rise and is increasingly holding on to that view over those 40 years.</p><p>Then the interest rate dropped to a very low level, and someone held bonds with negative real returns, and everyone wanted to sell them.</p><p>The question is, how to balance this?</p><p>When reducing personal credit, people spend less, so people must always pay attention to the balance sheet. Debt is the easiest thing to stimulate the economy. In other words, you can get money by borrowing debt.</p><p>Hardly anyone pays attention to where the money is coming from or where it leads to.</p><p><b>When inflation is too high, bondholders will get a poor return, but many people don't realize this because they always think that the least risky investment is cash, and they lose a lot of money because of cash.</b></p><p><b>Now the United States has the most internal conflicts since 1900</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Given the environment we're in right now, is cash still garbage in terms of economic benefits?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Cash will only bring negative real returns, so it is still a junk investment compared to other investments.</p><p>And one more thing,<b>Now we have the largest political and internal conflicts since 1900, even more than in Germany in the 1930s, mainly between the left and the right.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>How did you come to this conclusion?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I use the wealth gap as a measure, and I also pay attention to the voting results.</p><p>If conservative and liberal are distinguished according to the number of economic policies,<b>Republicans are more conservative than ever, Democrats are more liberal than ever, and cross-party voting is the fewest since 1900.</b></p><p>And now facing the biggest gap between the rich and the poor so far, almost everything has obvious internal debate.</p><p>You will find that some facts still make people doubt. For example, in the next presidential election, will both sides accept the election results?</p><p>The internal conflict that you see is an ideological conflict, it's an economic conflict, and because of the huge debt and financial assets, and the constant lack of opportunities, we need to make a restructuring of the economy.</p><p>My wife's job in Connecticut, is about disconnected high school students in poor communities.</p><p>To give you a data, Connecticut is one of the richest states in the United States, and 22% of high school students in the state are either disengaged or disconnected. Disengagement means that their absenteeism rate is greater than 25% and they fail courses; Disconnect means they don't know where they are anymore.</p><p>Poverty is the most important problem for a city, and there are many problems caused by poverty, which leads to many conflicts at the economic level.</p><p>What does this mean for taxes? What does it mean for wealth redistribution? What will the future be like? Therefore, the political level of the United States will also face various problems.</p><p>You'll see residents moving from one place to another, and that movement can have an impact on the market. Because you change the tax rate and you also change other factors that will have an impact on the market, which will have a great impact on our lives.</p><p><b>We are very close to recession right now</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Do you think we are in a recession now or we are about to enter it?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>We are very close to recession at present, because the growth rate is already zero. It doesn't matter whether the growth rate is higher or lower. What matters is that we are very close to this red line.</p><p><b>At present, we mainly rely on the cash balance accumulated some time ago to balance expenditures, so you will see the consumer durables industries such as housing and automobiles start to tighten, you will see cash dry up, loan delinquency rates rise, and you will see all these very classic indicators in the early days. At this point, economic growth will become negligible.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Will the depression intensify in 2023 or 2024?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I think the economy will deteriorate in 2023 or 2024, and it will also have an impact on the election.</p><p>Another point that cannot be ignored is international conflicts. These points complement each other, such as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the inflation and economic environment of the entire world, especially on Europe.</p><p>If we have a conflict with China, it will have an impact on the economy in many aspects. In some cases, these factors are superimposed and have an impact. These situations are very important. The reason why I study 500 years of history is because sometimes history repeats itself.</p><p><b>Stagflation will emerge in 2023</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>This is the law of the ever-changing world order. So to sum it up, the 2023-2024 recession will be long-lasting and strong?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>A lot depends on the nature of these things happening at the same time. I think there will be stagflation.</p><p><b>Ask:</b>Why is there stagflation? The current unemployment rate in the labor market is only 3%, which looks very strong. I understand that we are seeing signs of recession now, but it hasn't reached the level of stagflation yet, is it?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>Yes, what should be the bigger concern for Fed policy? It is not the unemployment rate, but they are actually the cause of the unemployment rate problem.</p><p>Reducing free cash flow, increasing unemployment, adopting liquidity crunch, people spending less... We may be on the verge of this change right now.</p><p>At the same time, we have to deal with external conflicts,<b>There are five forms of war in this world, including trade war, science and technology war, war of geopolitical influence, capital war and military war.</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Is the tech war just competing for tech? Or will there be a cyber attack?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>It may evolve into a cyber attack, and the science and technology developed by the country will have great military significance. Therefore, no matter which party wins the scientific and technological war, it means that it will also win the military war.</p><p>There is a conflict between the United States and China for various reasons, and there is a technological war between the two. This war also represents both sides' desire to be self-sufficient in the face of possible sanctions.</p><p><b>If one day the United States wants to boycott China, the economic pressure will be enormous</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>Are you still long on the Chinese market?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>I have been long in the Chinese market for a long time, and the current situation is that the price of Chinese assets is very low.</p><p>I want to go back to the previous topic, 22% of our manufactured goods come from China, and if one day China becomes in the same situation as Russia, in other words,<b>If we all have to boycott China one day, the pressure on the economy is enormous</b>。</p><p>What I want to say is that even a country with less economic strength like Russia will have a great impact on the world economy due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.</p><p>This is equivalent to answering your first question,<b>Supply chain breaks and resulting inefficiencies, coupled with a lot of costs stacked up, is what makes inflation high.</b></p><p><b>I think stagflation will emerge in 2023,</b>What we should worry about is how it will affect the 2024 election.</p><p>Because if the economy is not good, people will start to be angry, because quite a few people are suffering.</p><p><b>Cash is garbage, but you can do these 3 things</b></p><p><b>Ask:</b>You mentioned that holding cash is a terrible asset and bonds are underperforming, so what do we do?</p><p><b>Dalio:</b>The first thing is to look at the rate of return on your assets, including the actual amount of cash denominated in dollars, which is equivalent to returning in<b>Assess your purchasing power.</b></p><p>Next you should<b>Think about your asset kinds</b>For example, inflation-indexed bonds may be better than nominal bonds.</p><p>Third, you need<b>Diversified portfolio</b>, although I think most assets are in a downward channel, as an individual investor, I do not support timing because the world is changing rapidly.</p><p>One of the most important things you have to do is to build a balanced portfolio instead of focusing on market timing.</p><p>You need to pay attention to the correlation between assets,<b>For most retail investors and some institutional investors, the biggest problem is that they think that a sharp rise in assets is a good investment, regardless of whether it is expensive or not.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fkIAJKUmNGnkrBWEAr2MMQ\">资识</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fkIAJKUmNGnkrBWEAr2MMQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163125162","content_text":"精彩观点1、货币政策会持续收紧，直到经济带来的痛苦大于通胀带来的痛苦。2、当通胀过高，债券持有者将会获得一个很差的回报，但很多人没有意识到这一点，因为他们一直认为风险最小的投资是现金，而他们因为现金损失了很多钱。3、我们目前主要靠前段时间积攒下来的现金余额在平衡支出，所以你将看到住房和汽车这些耐用消费品行业开始紧缩，你将看到现金枯竭、贷款拖欠率上升，你将看到所有的这些（衰退）早期十分经典的指标。此时经济增长会变得微不足道。4、共和党比以往任何时候都更保守，民主党人比以往任何时候都更自由，而跨党派投票是自1900年以来最少的一次。5、对于大部分散户投资者和部分机构投资者来说，最大的问题是，他们认为资产大幅上涨就是好的投资，跟贵不贵无关。6、我长期做多中国市场，现在的情况是中国资产的价格很低。以上，是桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）于美国当地时间9月21日在与MarketWatch的主编Mark DeCambre对话时发表的观点。周三，美联储宣布加息75个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间上调到3.00%至3.25%之间。这是美联储今年以来第五次加息，也是连续第三次加息75个基点，创自1981年以来的最大密集加息幅度。对此，达利欧表示这远远没有结束。“你经常听到他们（美联储）说要提高利率，要对抗通货膨胀，但他们并不会谈论由此带来的痛苦……货币政策会持续收紧，直到经济带来的痛苦大于通胀带来的痛苦。”达利欧认为，利率要达到4%-5%左右甚至更高，才能稳定下来。而在接下来的2023-2024年，经济会持续恶化，滞胀会在2023年初露头角。这是多方因素共同作用的结果。达利欧表示，美国内部如今正遭受着一个多世纪以来最严重的政治两极分化，并且现在面临着迄今为止最大的贫富差距，几乎所有事情都有着明显的内部争论。“你看到的内部冲突是一场意识形态冲突，是一场经济冲突，由于巨额的债务和金融资产，以及机会的不断缺失，我们需要对经济结构进行调整。”除了内部冲突，国际局势也处于水深火热之中。“供应链断裂和由此导致的低效，再加上许多成本的叠加，这就是通胀率高的原因。”达利欧曾多次强调现金是垃圾，但这并不意味着投资者将会束手无策。他在文末提出了三个应对方法。他还强调不要关注市场择时，“对于大部分散户投资者和部分机构投资者来说，最大的问题是，他们认为资产大幅上涨就是好的投资，跟贵不贵无关。”据达利欧透露，桥水的Pure Alpha基金今年迄今上涨了25%，略低于彭博社今年早些时候报道的截至6月的32%涨幅，但仍远高于标普500指数。聪明投资者海外研究员在现场聆听了这场对话交流，并精译达利欧的讲话全文，与大家分享。货币政策会持续收紧问：早在 2021年5月你就说，当前的问题是政府需要更多的钱，于是他们得印更多钱，股票、地产等一切东西的价格会飞涨，同时美元贬值。（点击直达：聪投精译|2021年5月达利欧对话CoinDesk首席内容官）你当时怎么知道的？那时候通货膨胀并没有达到现在的程度，你看到了什么信号让你这么想？达利欧：这不复杂。如果你给人们很多钱和信贷，他们就会花很多钱。当你有大量的资金和信贷发放时，就会有大量用于商品、服务和金融资产的支出。这就是一些不难的计算。我最想做的事情是授人以渔而不是授人以鱼。所以我想抓住机会解释一些市场机制。投资者认为现金是安全的，它的流动性不大，但如果你这么想的话，你正在失去很多购买力，你正在失去很多财富。这些基本的东西正是我想要传达的。问：你认为美联储需要做什么？达利欧：美联储总是在扶持经济和解决通胀之间进行权衡，因为当他们投入更多的货币和信贷时，就会产生更多的支出。于是物价变得昂贵，然后他们把钱拿走，让物价变得更贵。你经常听到他们说要提高利率，要对抗通货膨胀，但他们并不会谈论由此带来的痛苦。他们要做的就是平衡。货币政策会持续收紧，直到经济带来的痛苦大于通胀带来的痛苦。问题就是要等利率达到什么水平才能稳定下来。问：你认为可能是什么水平？达利欧：我认为会在4%到5%之间。现在人们手上没钱，钱也在贬值。如果你把钱拿在手上，把钱存在银行或拿去投资，你的实际回报将会是负的。所以他们必须要将短期利率和长期利率提高到大约4.5%的水平，可能还会更高一点。那样可能让净通货膨胀率为零。但无论如何，市场经济都会受到影响，提高利率会影响所有大类资产，因为这些资产必须与更高的利率竞争，比如融资变得更加昂贵等等。因此这对股票和其他市场产生负面影响，然后产生信贷利差，并带来一系列后果。我想事情可能会按照这种情况发展。加息会给股市带来20%的负面影响问：你最近有提到，加息可能会让美国股市下跌20%，现在仍然这么觉得吗？达利欧：我现在仍然相信这一点。利率提高会使得资产间的竞争加剧，从而使股价下跌，损害收益和经济。还有一个是折现率，当折现率上升，未来现金流折现的现值将会下降，从而产生负面影响。当你投资时，你是一次性支付了这家公司未来的现金流。我们用折现率来计算未来现金流的现值，当利率降到零或接近零时，你不会再改变折现率了。这会提高所有资产的价格，包括房价在内的一切都会上涨。而当我们提高利率，如果现金流相同，带来的另一个负面效果是，所有资产类别的价值会下降。但现金流是不可能完全一样的，因为资产的购买量会减少，不仅金融资产的购买量会减少，商品和服务的购买量也会减少。你会发现，通货膨胀会伴随着经济受挫一起来。美联储会出售更多债券问：我们稍微改变一下方向。你花了很长时间研究大国历史，你的想法是？达利欧：我解释一下，我是一个很实际的人，在市场上赚钱是我的游戏，也是我正在做的。我多次意识到，之前从未发生过的事现在正在发生。正是因为我们研究了大萧条，所以才能预测到2000年和2008年的金融危机。在我们的一生中，有三件从未发生过的但非常重要的事。第一个是我们的债务数额和债务产生率，以及债务的货币化，即央行印刷货币并购买金融资产。这在上世纪30年代最为明显。问：自2020年以来，我们大量印钱超发，因为必须要刺激全球经济。达利欧：我们现在所处的世界，对金钱的需求程度非常之大。当我考虑要花多少钱时，就必须考虑哪些方面我可以不花钱，这样我就可以把钱花在其他事情上，毕竟钱是有限的。我们现在正面临一个混乱的局面，可能是贫富差距，可能是基础设施，可能是绿色经济，也可能是俄乌冲突带来的巨大成本。世界越来越具有威胁性，我们还要在国防上投入更多资金。每个人都说我们要花更多的钱，在某种意义上我们确实需要花更多的钱。但钱在哪里？钱从哪里来？问：他们要印钱。达利欧：现在，即便财政赤字在下降，但我们仍然有相当大的预算赤字，大约为GDP的5%，这意味着联邦政府将不得不出售债券。美联储表示要减少资产负债表，所以他们会以债券的形式再出售5%的GDP，也就是10%的GDP。问：资产负债表仍然非常富有，差不多有9万亿美元。达利欧：是的，但他们的计划是，在未来几年里要降到1.1万亿美元。这就代表他们会出售债券，也必须出售债券。但谁来买这些债券？问：中国会来买这些债券吗？达利欧：他们也不会买这么多。投资者的债券投资组合已经变了。我们经历了40年的债券牛市，所以每个持有债券的人都会觉得债券价格会上涨，并在这40年内越来越坚持这一观点。然后利率下降到了一个很低的水平，有人持有实际回报为负的债券，大家都想把债券卖掉。问题是，如何平衡好这件事？当减少个人信贷，人们的支出会减少，因此人们必须始终关注资产负债表。债是最容易刺激经济的一件事，换句话说，你可以通过借债得到钱。几乎没有人注意钱是从哪里来的，或者钱会导致什么。当通胀过高，债券持有者将会获得一个很差的回报，但很多人没有意识到这一点，因为他们一直认为风险最小的投资是现金，而他们因为现金损失了很多钱。现在美国的内部冲突是1900年以来最多的问：考虑到我们现在所处的环境，从经济效益上来看，现金仍然是垃圾吗？达利欧：现金只会带来负的实际回报，所以与其他投资相比，现金仍是一笔垃圾投资。还有一件事是，现在我们的政治和内部冲突是自1900年以来最多的，甚至比德国30年代那时候还多，主要是在左翼和右翼之间的冲突。问：你是如何得出这个结论的？达利欧：我用财富差距作为衡量指标，同时我也会关注票选结果。如果按照经济政策的数量来区分保守和自由的话，共和党比以往任何时候都更保守，民主党人比以往任何时候都更自由，而跨党派投票是自1900年以来最少的一次。并且现在面临着迄今为止最大的贫富差距，几乎所有事情都有着明显的内部争论。你会发现有些事实还是会让人怀疑的，比如说下次的总统选举，双方是否都会接受选举结果？你看到的内部冲突是一场意识形态冲突，是一场经济冲突，由于巨额的债务和金融资产，以及机会的不断缺失，我们需要对经济结构进行调整。我的妻子在康涅狄格州的工作，是关于贫困社区脱离脱节的高中生。给你一个数据，康涅狄格州是美国最富有的州之一，而该州22%的高中生不是脱离（disengaged）就是脱节（disconnected），脱离意味着他们的缺勤率大于25%并且课程不及格；脱节意味着他们已经不知道他们的位置了。贫穷对于一个城市而言是最主要的问题，有很多因贫穷引发的问题，由此产生了许多经济层面的冲突。这对于税收意味着什么？对于财富再分配又意味着什么？未来又将会是怎样？所以美国的政治层面也会面临各种问题。你会看到居民从一个地方搬家到另一个地方，这种流动会对市场产生影响。因为你改变了税率也改变了其他会对市场产生影响的因素，这会对我们的生活有着很大的影响。我们目前非常接近衰退了问：你认为我们现在正处于一场经济衰退还是即将进入经济衰退呢？达利欧：我们目前非常接近衰退了，因为已经是0增长率，增长率高一点低一点都无关紧要，重要的是我们离这根红线十分接近了。我们目前主要靠前段时间积攒下来的现金余额在平衡支出，所以你将看到住房和汽车这些耐用消费品行业开始紧缩、你将看到现金枯竭、贷款拖欠率上升，你将看到所有的这些早期十分经典的指标。此时经济增长会变得微不足道。问：萧条会在2023年或者2024年加剧吗？达利欧：我认为经济会在2023或者2024年恶化，也会对选举有所影响。还有不可忽视的一点是国际冲突。这几点相辅相成，比如俄乌冲突对整个世界通胀和经济环境的影响，尤其是对欧洲的影响。如果我们和中国有冲突，那将会对经济在多个方面产生冲击，在有些情况下这几个因素叠加产生影响，这些情况是很重要的。我之所以研究500年的历史，就是因为有时历史会重演。2023年滞胀就会初露头角问：这就是世界秩序在不断变化中的规律。所以总结一下就是，2023-2024年的经济衰退将会持久且强劲？达利欧：这在很大程度上取决于同时发生的这些事情的本质。我认为将会出现滞胀。问：为什么会有滞胀呢？劳动力市场目前的失业率只有3%，看起来十分强劲，我理解现在我们正看到衰退的迹象，但这还没有达到滞胀的程度吧？达利欧：是的，对于美联储的政策来说，更大的担忧该是什么？并不是失业率，反而实际上他们才是造成失业率问题的原因。减少自由现金流，失业率提高，采取流动性紧缩，人们的支出减少……我们目前可能就处在这个变化的边缘。同时，我们还要应对外部冲突问题，这个世界有五种战争形式，有贸易战争、科技战争、地缘政治影响力的战争、资本战争和军事战争。问：科技战争只是在竞争科技吗？还是会有网络攻击？达利欧：可能会演变成网络攻击，国家发展的科技会有重大的军事意义，因此不管哪方在科技战争中获胜就意味着在军事战争中也会胜利。美国和中国之间由于各种原因存在冲突，二者之间正在进行一场科技战争，这场战争也代表着双方都想具备自给自足的能力，以面对可能会发生的制裁。如果某一天美国要抵制中国，经济承压将会是巨大的问：你还在做多中国市场吗？达利欧：我长期做多中国市场，现在的情况是中国资产的价格很低。我想回到上一个话题，我们有22%的制造业商品来自中国，如果有一天中国变得和俄罗斯一样的处境，换句话说，如果到了某一天我们都要抵制中国的时候，经济承压是巨大的。我想说的是，即使是俄罗斯这种经济实力没那么大的国家也会因为俄乌冲突给世界经济带来很大的影响。这相当于回答了你的第一个问题，供应链断裂和由此导致的低效，再加上许多成本的叠加，这就是通胀率高的原因。我认为2023年滞胀就会初露头角，我们该担心的是其会对2024年的选举产生怎样的影响。因为如果经济不好，民众就会开始激愤，因为有相当一部分民众正在受苦。现金是垃圾，但你可以做这三件事问：你提到持有现金是一个很糟糕的资产，债券也表现不佳，那我们该怎么办？达利欧：第一件事是看一下你资产的回报率，包括以美元计价的实际现金金额，这相当于在评估你的购买力。接下来你该思考你的资产种类，比如，通胀指数债券可能比名义债券更好。第三，你需要分散化投资组合，虽然我认为大部分资产都处在下行通道，作为个人投资者，我并不支持择时，因为世界是快速变化的。你要做的最重要的一件事是构建一个均衡的投资组合，而不是专注于市场择时。你要关注资产间的相关性，对于大部分散户投资者和部分机构投资者来说，最大的问题是，他们认为资产大幅上涨就是好的投资，跟贵不贵无关。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938527750,"gmtCreate":1662639825670,"gmtModify":1676537106972,"author":{"id":"4092042073455650","authorId":"4092042073455650","name":"TAILO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faab8b3e8bd8cfbb51e26991cf83c311","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092042073455650","authorIdStr":"4092042073455650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"high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of Funds”，中文暱稱“方方”。魯迅說，在我的後院,可以看見牆外有兩株樹,一株是棗樹，還有一株也是棗樹。“方方”兩個字，前一個“方”是基金，後一個“方”也是基金。這不是故意要疊字，而是FOF的“含基量”很高。平時我們所看到的基金，買的是股票，或者債券；而FOF不是直接購買股票、債券，而是購買基金。基金市場有個規定，公募FOF必須將80%以上的錢買基金。FOF還有個稱號，“超級基金”，“基金中的戰鬥基”，因爲FOF裏面含有“學霸平方”的力量。目前，基金市場共計有3044名基金經理，擁有碩士以上學歷的高達2900多名。有數據顯示，74.6%是985高校畢業，清華北大畢業的也是非常普遍。FOF的管理者是清華北大畢業的博士學霸，購買的基金也是一羣清華北大畢業的學霸在打理，一羣清華北大的博士學霸在挑選另一羣清華北大畢業的學霸，博士學霸X博士學霸=博士學霸^2，優中選優，戰鬥力爆棚，這很能打。基金市場足夠龐大，市場上共計有14000多隻基金，A股有4700多隻股票，基金數量是股票的近3倍。平時買股票，就讓人頭大，買主板，還是買科創板，新能源，還是白酒？面對14000只基金，選起來就更讓人頭大，股票基金、債券基金、還是混合基金？真的“挑花了眼！”挑選基金難，“養基金”也不容易呀。基金經理換人了嗎？重倉持股變了嗎？淨值跌了要不要贖回或者調換？種種問題，對於大衆普通投資者來說，太難了，心態分分鐘可能就被搞崩了。買FOF，就簡單多了，省心省事，還有一幫清華北大的學霸幫我們打工，挑基金，養基金，全交給專業人士，自己“佛系變富”，難道不香嗎？（本期特別支持 易方達投資者教育基地）","listText":"中國最高的學府是清華北大，能進清華北大的基本都是各省的高考狀元，學霸。你有沒有想過，有一天這羣高考狀元，清華北大的博士幫你打工賺錢呢？這不是白日夢，它來了，就是“FOF”。FOF的英文全稱是“Fund of Funds”，中文暱稱“方方”。魯迅說，在我的後院,可以看見牆外有兩株樹,一株是棗樹，還有一株也是棗樹。“方方”兩個字，前一個“方”是基金，後一個“方”也是基金。這不是故意要疊字，而是FOF的“含基量”很高。平時我們所看到的基金，買的是股票，或者債券；而FOF不是直接購買股票、債券，而是購買基金。基金市場有個規定，公募FOF必須將80%以上的錢買基金。FOF還有個稱號，“超級基金”，“基金中的戰鬥基”，因爲FOF裏面含有“學霸平方”的力量。目前，基金市場共計有3044名基金經理，擁有碩士以上學歷的高達2900多名。有數據顯示，74.6%是985高校畢業，清華北大畢業的也是非常普遍。FOF的管理者是清華北大畢業的博士學霸，購買的基金也是一羣清華北大畢業的學霸在打理，一羣清華北大的博士學霸在挑選另一羣清華北大畢業的學霸，博士學霸X博士學霸=博士學霸^2，優中選優，戰鬥力爆棚，這很能打。基金市場足夠龐大，市場上共計有14000多隻基金，A股有4700多隻股票，基金數量是股票的近3倍。平時買股票，就讓人頭大，買主板，還是買科創板，新能源，還是白酒？面對14000只基金，選起來就更讓人頭大，股票基金、債券基金、還是混合基金？真的“挑花了眼！”挑選基金難，“養基金”也不容易呀。基金經理換人了嗎？重倉持股變了嗎？淨值跌了要不要贖回或者調換？種種問題，對於大衆普通投資者來說，太難了，心態分分鐘可能就被搞崩了。買FOF，就簡單多了，省心省事，還有一幫清華北大的學霸幫我們打工，挑基金，養基金，全交給專業人士，自己“佛系變富”，難道不香嗎？（本期特別支持 易方達投資者教育基地）","text":"中國最高的學府是清華北大，能進清華北大的基本都是各省的高考狀元，學霸。你有沒有想過，有一天這羣高考狀元，清華北大的博士幫你打工賺錢呢？這不是白日夢，它來了，就是“FOF”。FOF的英文全稱是“Fund of Funds”，中文暱稱“方方”。魯迅說，在我的後院,可以看見牆外有兩株樹,一株是棗樹，還有一株也是棗樹。“方方”兩個字，前一個“方”是基金，後一個“方”也是基金。這不是故意要疊字，而是FOF的“含基量”很高。平時我們所看到的基金，買的是股票，或者債券；而FOF不是直接購買股票、債券，而是購買基金。基金市場有個規定，公募FOF必須將80%以上的錢買基金。FOF還有個稱號，“超級基金”，“基金中的戰鬥基”，因爲FOF裏面含有“學霸平方”的力量。目前，基金市場共計有3044名基金經理，擁有碩士以上學歷的高達2900多名。有數據顯示，74.6%是985高校畢業，清華北大畢業的也是非常普遍。FOF的管理者是清華北大畢業的博士學霸，購買的基金也是一羣清華北大畢業的學霸在打理，一羣清華北大的博士學霸在挑選另一羣清華北大畢業的學霸，博士學霸X博士學霸=博士學霸^2，優中選優，戰鬥力爆棚，這很能打。基金市場足夠龐大，市場上共計有14000多隻基金，A股有4700多隻股票，基金數量是股票的近3倍。平時買股票，就讓人頭大，買主板，還是買科創板，新能源，還是白酒？面對14000只基金，選起來就更讓人頭大，股票基金、債券基金、還是混合基金？真的“挑花了眼！”挑選基金難，“養基金”也不容易呀。基金經理換人了嗎？重倉持股變了嗎？淨值跌了要不要贖回或者調換？種種問題，對於大衆普通投資者來說，太難了，心態分分鐘可能就被搞崩了。買FOF，就簡單多了，省心省事，還有一幫清華北大的學霸幫我們打工，挑基金，養基金，全交給專業人士，自己“佛系變富”，難道不香嗎？（本期特別支持 易方達投資者教育基地）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d346ba2ae477b64a9e2c0b7461bd873c","width":"640","height":"356"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/687097922","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}