Samuel123win personal page - To The Moon

Samuel123win

Samuel123win

Here to learn and grow

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2022-12-04

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2022-11-29

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2022-11-23

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Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664066508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269490734?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269490734","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-25 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269490734","content_text":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market's decline this past week following the Federal Reserve's most recent interest-rate hike announcement.To show why higher interest rates aren't necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model's track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market's subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University's finance professor Robert Shiller.In other words, the ability to predict the stock market's five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.Money illusionThese results are so surprising that it's important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years' corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it's only half the story.The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as \"inflation illusion\" -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.According to research conducted by Warr, inflation's impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed's latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.None of this means that the bear market shouldn't continue, or that equities aren't overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910030585,"gmtCreate":1663537555948,"gmtModify":1676537282960,"author":{"id":"4092554906611330","authorId":"4092554906611330","name":"Samuel123win","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb615bd9d23d3ee707625d59ccb06f5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092554906611330","idStr":"4092554906611330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910030585","repostId":"2268672370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268672370","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663460267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268672370?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268672370","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hike</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4166c0ac7b0bdf7caa1837ef618a67\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.</span></p><p>The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.</p><p>“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.</p><p>U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.</p><p>A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.</p><p>Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.</p><p>Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.</p><p>The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.</p><p>Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.</p><p>William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”</p><p>Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.</p><p>“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.</p><p>The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.</p><p>The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&amp;P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.</p><p>“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.</p><p>“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 08:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268672370","content_text":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984743160,"gmtCreate":1667771318550,"gmtModify":1676537959129,"author":{"id":"4092554906611330","authorId":"4092554906611330","name":"Samuel123win","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb615bd9d23d3ee707625d59ccb06f5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092554906611330","idStr":"4092554906611330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ffb8923e4f4070088af558315ab556d6","width":"1125","height":"2688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984743160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035528745,"gmtCreate":1647645419535,"gmtModify":1676534253619,"author":{"id":"4092554906611330","authorId":"4092554906611330","name":"Samuel123win","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb615bd9d23d3ee707625d59ccb06f5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092554906611330","idStr":"4092554906611330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035528745","repostId":"2220484770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000715005,"gmtCreate":1640306454523,"gmtModify":1676533515384,"author":{"id":"4092554906611330","authorId":"4092554906611330","name":"Samuel123win","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb615bd9d23d3ee707625d59ccb06f5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092554906611330","idStr":"4092554906611330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000715005","repostId":"1125729979","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125729979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640304436,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125729979?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-24 08:07","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stock Market Has A Green Light For Friday's Trade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125729979","media":"RTTNews","summary":"The Singapore stock market has finished higher in three straight sessions, gathering almost 25 point","content":"<p>The Singapore stock market has finished higher in three straight sessions, gathering almost 25 points or 0.8 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just above the 3,095-point plateau and it may extend its gains on Friday.</p>\n<p>The global forecast for the Asian&nbsp;markets&nbsp;is upbeat on easing virus concerns, rising crude oil prices and solid economic data. The European and U.S. markets were up and the Asian markets are expected to open in similar fashion.</p>\n<p>The STI finished modestly higher on Thursday following gains from the financial shares, property stocks and plantations.</p>\n<p>For the day, the index rose 9.30 points or 0.30 percent to finish at 3,096.81 after trading between 3,090.25 and 3,104.18. Volume was 878.5 million shares worth S$515.8 million. There were 265 gainers and 169 decliners.</p>\n<p>Among the actives, Ascendas REIT fell 0.34 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust and Mapletree Commercial Trust both gained 0.51 percent, City Developments jumped 0.76 percent, Comfort DelGro climbed 0.74 percent, Dairy Farm International surged 2.23 percent, DBS Group increased 0.37 percent, Genting Singapore advanced 0.66 percent, Hongkong Land rallied 1.17 percent, Keppel Corp rose 0.39 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust added 0.54 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.44 percent, SATS accelerated 1.32 percent, SembCorp Industries shed 0.50 percent, Singapore Airlines spiked 1.45 percent, Singapore Exchange was up 0.11 percent, Singapore Press Holdings lost 0.43 percent, Thai Beverage sank 0.75 percent, Wilmar International soared 1.50 percent and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Singapore Technologies Engineering, United Overseas Bank and SingTel were unchanged.</p>\n<p>The lead from Wall Street is positive as the major averages opened higher on Thursday and remained comfortably in the green throughout the session, ending near record highs.</p>\n<p>The Dow jumped 196.67 points or 0.55 percent to finish at 35,950.56, while the NASDAQ climbed 131.48 points or 0.85 percent to close at 15,653.37 and the S&amp;P 500 rose 29.23 points or 0.62 percent to end at 4,725.79. For the holiday-shortened week, the NASDAQ spiked 3.2 percent, the S&amp;P improved 2.3 percent and the Dow gained 1.7 percent.</p>\n<p>Easing concerns about the Omicron variant of the&nbsp;coronavirus&nbsp;contributed to the continued strength on Wall Street, as separate studies have indicated the new strain poses a lower risk of severe disease and hospitalization than the Delta variant.</p>\n<p>Traders were also reacting to a slew of economic data, including a Labor Department report showing first-time claims for U.S. jobless benefits came in flat last week. Also, the Commerce Department said new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods spiked much more than expected in November.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Commerce Department also noted a continued acceleration in the pace of core consumer price growth last month, and also that new home sales skyrocketed.</p>\n<p>Crude oil futures extended gains to a third straight day amid hopes about outlook for energy demand as concerns about Omicron variant of the coronavirus faded. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February ended higher by $1.03 or 1.4 percent at $73.79 a barrel.</p>","source":"lsy1626938412129","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Stock Market Has A Green Light For Friday's Trade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stock Market Has A Green Light For Friday's Trade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-24 08:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.rttnews.com/3251425/singapore-stock-market-has-a-green-light-for-friday-s-trade.aspx><strong>RTTNews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Singapore stock market has finished higher in three straight sessions, gathering almost 25 points or 0.8 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just above the 3,095-point plateau ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.rttnews.com/3251425/singapore-stock-market-has-a-green-light-for-friday-s-trade.aspx\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.rttnews.com/3251425/singapore-stock-market-has-a-green-light-for-friday-s-trade.aspx","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125729979","content_text":"The Singapore stock market has finished higher in three straight sessions, gathering almost 25 points or 0.8 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just above the 3,095-point plateau and it may extend its gains on Friday.\nThe global forecast for the Asian markets is upbeat on easing virus concerns, rising crude oil prices and solid economic data. The European and U.S. markets were up and the Asian markets are expected to open in similar fashion.\nThe STI finished modestly higher on Thursday following gains from the financial shares, property stocks and plantations.\nFor the day, the index rose 9.30 points or 0.30 percent to finish at 3,096.81 after trading between 3,090.25 and 3,104.18. Volume was 878.5 million shares worth S$515.8 million. There were 265 gainers and 169 decliners.\nAmong the actives, Ascendas REIT fell 0.34 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust and Mapletree Commercial Trust both gained 0.51 percent, City Developments jumped 0.76 percent, Comfort DelGro climbed 0.74 percent, Dairy Farm International surged 2.23 percent, DBS Group increased 0.37 percent, Genting Singapore advanced 0.66 percent, Hongkong Land rallied 1.17 percent, Keppel Corp rose 0.39 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust added 0.54 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.44 percent, SATS accelerated 1.32 percent, SembCorp Industries shed 0.50 percent, Singapore Airlines spiked 1.45 percent, Singapore Exchange was up 0.11 percent, Singapore Press Holdings lost 0.43 percent, Thai Beverage sank 0.75 percent, Wilmar International soared 1.50 percent and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Singapore Technologies Engineering, United Overseas Bank and SingTel were unchanged.\nThe lead from Wall Street is positive as the major averages opened higher on Thursday and remained comfortably in the green throughout the session, ending near record highs.\nThe Dow jumped 196.67 points or 0.55 percent to finish at 35,950.56, while the NASDAQ climbed 131.48 points or 0.85 percent to close at 15,653.37 and the S&P 500 rose 29.23 points or 0.62 percent to end at 4,725.79. For the holiday-shortened week, the NASDAQ spiked 3.2 percent, the S&P improved 2.3 percent and the Dow gained 1.7 percent.\nEasing concerns about the Omicron variant of the coronavirus contributed to the continued strength on Wall Street, as separate studies have indicated the new strain poses a lower risk of severe disease and hospitalization than the Delta variant.\nTraders were also reacting to a slew of economic data, including a Labor Department report showing first-time claims for U.S. jobless benefits came in flat last week. Also, the Commerce Department said new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods spiked much more than expected in November.\nMeanwhile, the Commerce Department also noted a continued acceleration in the pace of core consumer price growth last month, and also that new home sales skyrocketed.\nCrude oil futures extended gains to a third straight day amid hopes about outlook for energy demand as concerns about Omicron variant of the coronavirus faded. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February ended higher by $1.03 or 1.4 percent at $73.79 a barrel.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9993690386,"gmtCreate":1660686491647,"gmtModify":1676536376045,"author":{"id":"4092554906611330","authorId":"4092554906611330","name":"Samuel123win","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb615bd9d23d3ee707625d59ccb06f5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092554906611330","idStr":"4092554906611330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"G","listText":"G","text":"G","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993690386","repostId":"1105779322","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999040719,"gmtCreate":1660443299433,"gmtModify":1676533471320,"author":{"id":"4092554906611330","authorId":"4092554906611330","name":"Samuel123win","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb615bd9d23d3ee707625d59ccb06f5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092554906611330","idStr":"4092554906611330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"G","listText":"G","text":"G","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999040719","repostId":"2259720034","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2259720034","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1660351621,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2259720034?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Market Is Acting Like Peak Inflation Is Over. Not So Fast","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2259720034","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Wall Street got a dose of good news this week. It also got a little ahead of itself.Inflation slowed","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street got a dose of good news this week. It also got a little ahead of itself.</p><p>Inflation slowed in July, according to Department of Labor data released on Wednesday. The consumer price index rose 8.5% in July from a year ago. That was lower than both the 8.7% increase in prices forecast by economists and the 9.1% reading in June.</p><p>That news sent the S&amp;P 500 index up 2.1% that day and tipped the tech-weighted Nasdaq Composite into a bull market. The S&amp;P closed the week up 3.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq gained 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively.</p><p>It makes sense that investors would celebrate the easing of prices. But it may be too early to pop the Champagne -- inflation standing at 8.5% is still a long way from the Federal Reserve&#39;s target of 2%, and the Fed is likely to continue tightening until it is under control.</p><p>Even if inflation has peaked, it&#39;s likely to remain stubbornly high. &#34;One good print isn&#39;t going to change the Fed&#39;s modus operandi,&#34; Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, told Barron&#39;s. &#34;The last thing they want to do is take the foot off the brake and have inflation come ripping back.&#34;</p><p>There are several reasons to believe that inflation will continue to be sticky -- even if it stays below multidecade highs. That means investors may be in for more market volatility through the end of the year. Wednesday&#39;s rally was seen largely in tech names and other more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies -- not what one would expect in a tightening cycle.</p><p>&#34;The more you think tech is going to run, the more you have to think the Fed is going to have to tighten,&#34; says Bernstein, as it indicates a speculative mind-set not consistent with a cooling economy -- one that&#39;s also seen in other economic data.</p><p>July&#39;s jobs report blew past economists&#39; expectations and showed that the demand for labor remains robust, which also means that businesses will probably have to continue to pay up to retain and attract workers. No one minds a raise until they realize the inflationary effects of wage increases leave them roughly where they started.</p><p>There&#39;s the fact that some of this apparent cooling comes as several cities in China are under Covid lockdown, meaning that there is less demand coming from the second-largest economy in the world.</p><p>It&#39;s tough to declare victory on commodity inflation with China still implementing its Covid-zero policy, Bernstein warns. &#34;If China&#39;s economy is at six or eight cylinders and commodities are lagging, we&#39;ve got something,&#34; he says. &#34;We&#39;re at one or two cylinders.&#34; Indeed, commodity prices ticked up this past week: Brent crude flirted with $100 a barrel this past week, and copper prices have been marching higher.</p><p>Given the market&#39;s tendency to pull back after rallies in volatile markets, the risk-reward for getting excited about equities now is poor, points out BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky.</p><p>With markets likely to be volatile for some time as the effect of interest-rate hikes and inflation works its way through the system, bet on two things: The Fed will continue to be aggressive, and profits will decelerate. Speculative names may be tempting following any dose of good news, but investors will be better off sticking with defensive sectors that offer stable growth, such as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare.</p><p>Those sectors may also see volatility, but demand won&#39;t dwindle dramatically in a downturn.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Market Is Acting Like Peak Inflation Is Over. Not So Fast</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Market Is Acting Like Peak Inflation Is Over. Not So Fast\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-13 08:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street got a dose of good news this week. It also got a little ahead of itself.</p><p>Inflation slowed in July, according to Department of Labor data released on Wednesday. The consumer price index rose 8.5% in July from a year ago. That was lower than both the 8.7% increase in prices forecast by economists and the 9.1% reading in June.</p><p>That news sent the S&amp;P 500 index up 2.1% that day and tipped the tech-weighted Nasdaq Composite into a bull market. The S&amp;P closed the week up 3.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq gained 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively.</p><p>It makes sense that investors would celebrate the easing of prices. But it may be too early to pop the Champagne -- inflation standing at 8.5% is still a long way from the Federal Reserve&#39;s target of 2%, and the Fed is likely to continue tightening until it is under control.</p><p>Even if inflation has peaked, it&#39;s likely to remain stubbornly high. &#34;One good print isn&#39;t going to change the Fed&#39;s modus operandi,&#34; Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, told Barron&#39;s. &#34;The last thing they want to do is take the foot off the brake and have inflation come ripping back.&#34;</p><p>There are several reasons to believe that inflation will continue to be sticky -- even if it stays below multidecade highs. That means investors may be in for more market volatility through the end of the year. Wednesday&#39;s rally was seen largely in tech names and other more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies -- not what one would expect in a tightening cycle.</p><p>&#34;The more you think tech is going to run, the more you have to think the Fed is going to have to tighten,&#34; says Bernstein, as it indicates a speculative mind-set not consistent with a cooling economy -- one that&#39;s also seen in other economic data.</p><p>July&#39;s jobs report blew past economists&#39; expectations and showed that the demand for labor remains robust, which also means that businesses will probably have to continue to pay up to retain and attract workers. No one minds a raise until they realize the inflationary effects of wage increases leave them roughly where they started.</p><p>There&#39;s the fact that some of this apparent cooling comes as several cities in China are under Covid lockdown, meaning that there is less demand coming from the second-largest economy in the world.</p><p>It&#39;s tough to declare victory on commodity inflation with China still implementing its Covid-zero policy, Bernstein warns. &#34;If China&#39;s economy is at six or eight cylinders and commodities are lagging, we&#39;ve got something,&#34; he says. &#34;We&#39;re at one or two cylinders.&#34; Indeed, commodity prices ticked up this past week: Brent crude flirted with $100 a barrel this past week, and copper prices have been marching higher.</p><p>Given the market&#39;s tendency to pull back after rallies in volatile markets, the risk-reward for getting excited about equities now is poor, points out BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky.</p><p>With markets likely to be volatile for some time as the effect of interest-rate hikes and inflation works its way through the system, bet on two things: The Fed will continue to be aggressive, and profits will decelerate. Speculative names may be tempting following any dose of good news, but investors will be better off sticking with defensive sectors that offer stable growth, such as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare.</p><p>Those sectors may also see volatility, but demand won&#39;t dwindle dramatically in a downturn.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4104":"贸易公司与经销商","SKIS":"Peak Resorts, Inc.","BK4567":"ESG概念","FAST":"快扣"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2259720034","content_text":"Wall Street got a dose of good news this week. It also got a little ahead of itself.Inflation slowed in July, according to Department of Labor data released on Wednesday. The consumer price index rose 8.5% in July from a year ago. That was lower than both the 8.7% increase in prices forecast by economists and the 9.1% reading in June.That news sent the S&P 500 index up 2.1% that day and tipped the tech-weighted Nasdaq Composite into a bull market. The S&P closed the week up 3.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq gained 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively.It makes sense that investors would celebrate the easing of prices. But it may be too early to pop the Champagne -- inflation standing at 8.5% is still a long way from the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and the Fed is likely to continue tightening until it is under control.Even if inflation has peaked, it's likely to remain stubbornly high. \"One good print isn't going to change the Fed's modus operandi,\" Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, told Barron's. \"The last thing they want to do is take the foot off the brake and have inflation come ripping back.\"There are several reasons to believe that inflation will continue to be sticky -- even if it stays below multidecade highs. That means investors may be in for more market volatility through the end of the year. Wednesday's rally was seen largely in tech names and other more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies -- not what one would expect in a tightening cycle.\"The more you think tech is going to run, the more you have to think the Fed is going to have to tighten,\" says Bernstein, as it indicates a speculative mind-set not consistent with a cooling economy -- one that's also seen in other economic data.July's jobs report blew past economists' expectations and showed that the demand for labor remains robust, which also means that businesses will probably have to continue to pay up to retain and attract workers. No one minds a raise until they realize the inflationary effects of wage increases leave them roughly where they started.There's the fact that some of this apparent cooling comes as several cities in China are under Covid lockdown, meaning that there is less demand coming from the second-largest economy in the world.It's tough to declare victory on commodity inflation with China still implementing its Covid-zero policy, Bernstein warns. \"If China's economy is at six or eight cylinders and commodities are lagging, we've got something,\" he says. \"We're at one or two cylinders.\" Indeed, commodity prices ticked up this past week: Brent crude flirted with $100 a barrel this past week, and copper prices have been marching higher.Given the market's tendency to pull back after rallies in volatile markets, the risk-reward for getting excited about equities now is poor, points out BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky.With markets likely to be volatile for some time as the effect of interest-rate hikes and inflation works its way through the system, bet on two things: The Fed will continue to be aggressive, and profits will decelerate. Speculative names may be tempting following any dose of good news, but investors will be better off sticking with defensive sectors that offer stable growth, such as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare.Those sectors may also see volatility, but demand won't dwindle dramatically in a downturn.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FAST":1,"SKIS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912722319,"gmtCreate":1664920170332,"gmtModify":1676537526880,"author":{"id":"4092554906611330","authorId":"4092554906611330","name":"Samuel123win","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb615bd9d23d3ee707625d59ccb06f5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092554906611330","idStr":"4092554906611330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"G","listText":"G","text":"G","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912722319","repostId":"2272078402","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919090304,"gmtCreate":1663709918908,"gmtModify":1676537317690,"author":{"id":"4092554906611330","authorId":"4092554906611330","name":"Samuel123win","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb615bd9d23d3ee707625d59ccb06f5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092554906611330","idStr":"4092554906611330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919090304","repostId":"2268391042","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268391042","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663663883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268391042?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"VOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268391042","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtr","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.</li><li>The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening monetary policies.</li><li>Investor sentiment and valuations would be impacted by a large percentage of downside earnings revisions.</li><li>The historical data also suggests that going long ahead of a recession is not a prudent strategy.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5056e902bdaef835ab02d4d345d0153e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>ronniechua</span></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is on the edge of a bear market once again as the recovery from mid-June to mid-August proved to be no more than a bear market rally, in my opinion. In the last thirty days, the indexplunged around 9% and is currently only a few percentage points higher than its mid-June lows. I believe the broader market index, as well as related ETFs such as the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), are likely to hit new lows in the coming months, and the bear trend might last longer than the recent routes. What’s more concerning is that global GDP growth and corporate earnings are projected to fall further in the next year. In addition, historical trends suggest that the market has a lot more room to fall. Therefore, buying the latest dip doesn’t look like a prudent strategy to me.</p><h2>Demand Destruction Pushing Economies into Recession</h2><h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc3c3e1aa15446ec437054d90c22084f\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"689\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>True_insights (Bloomberg)</span></p></h2><p>Economic and monetary policy directly affect stock market performance. Historically, the US stock market has faced challenges when economic numbers drop, but bull markets usually occur when monetary conditions are easy and economic growth is stable. There have been 10 official U.S. recessions since 1957 and the stock market has lost 29% on average after each recession. In economics, high prices or limited supply guides demand destruction. A number of factors are contributing to demand destruction at the moment, including high inflation, tightening monetary policies, the Russian war, and the Chinese economic slowdown.</p><p>Rating agencies and the World Bank are cutting their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the negative impact of demand destruction on business activities. Fitch, for instance, slashed its 2022 global growth forecast for the third time in nine months to 2.4%, down by 0.5% from its June forecast. For 2023, it expects the global GDP to grow by only 1.7%. It also projects the eurozone and UK will enter recession in the December quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last longer. Fitch also predicts a mild recession in the United States in mid-2023.</p><h2>Earnings Revisions</h2><p>As it appears that economies will fall into recession from the December quarter, analysts and companies are cutting earnings expectations faster. For example, FedEx (FDX), one of the world&#39;s largest air freight and logistics companies, missed earnings expectations for the first quarter by a greater margin. Additionally, the company expects the situation to worsen in the next quarter.</p><blockquote>Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, Q1 results are below our expectations, CEO Raj Subramaniam said.</blockquote><p>It&#39;s evident from FedEx&#39;s earnings miss that the market environment is worse than many had predicted. In the quarters ahead, industrial, materials, and real estate sectors could face massive earnings reductions as a slower economic activity directly impacts their revenue generation capacities. This trend is also reflected in Seeking Alpha&#39;s poor quant grades for a large number of key industrial stocks. In contrast, mega-cap tech stocks including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) have seen an average earningsestimatedrop of 21.4% over the last 90 days, while projections for 2023 have declined 11.3%. In the case of VOO, the majority of its top 10 stock holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have seen a large number of downside earnings revisions for 2022 and 2023.</p><h2>Valuations</h2><p>The S&amp;P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio eased to around 16.9 at present, down from 1.84% in the previous quarter and 8.76% in the year-ago period. When stocks hit their 2022 low in mid-June, the forward PE was around 16.</p><p>S&amp;P 500&#39;s forward PE ratio could fall below its June lows if the bear trend intensifies in the coming months. Historically, PE ratios have fallen between 13 and 14 during recessions since 1990, with the exception of 2008 when the PE fell below 10. Further, a significant amount of earnings revisions in the coming quarters would put additional pressure on valuations. Any rally in stocks without earnings growth would make them expensive, and it appears that investors might not be willing to pay premiums ahead of a recession and tough monetary conditions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e6a297993692762ac59f1dc1b1ea631\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>yardeni.com (8 tech mega-caps forward PE)</span></p><p>There is also a big difference between the forward earnings ratio of the S&amp;P 500 and that of mega-cap tech stocks. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia account for almost a quarter of the overall weight of the S&amp;P 500 index and almost half of the S&amp;P 500 growth index. These mega-cap tech stocks have on average a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of around 25. These stocks received either a D or F Seeking Alpha quant grade on valuations. S&amp;P 500 might face steep losses in the days ahead if sentiments turn against paying a premium for big tech stocks due to recession and earnings revisions.</p><h2>Capitulation Phase</h2><p>After hot CPI data and increasing prospects for recession, it appears that investors are selling stakes in fear of more losses, a situation known as a capitulation phase. In general, capitulation occurs during bear markets.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7939879a7b810f27e55c49b90c33d95b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Coatue Management (Investor Presentation)</span></p><p>Coatue Management&#39;s investor presentation also hinted that the markets are in a capitulation phase where the entire stock market will fall before reaching its bottom. Philippe Laffont&#39;s investment firm held 80 percent of its portfolio in cash as of June 2022 following a large number of sales in the first half. Like the dot-com bear market, the firm says non-profitable tech stocks fell in the first phase of 2021. In the second phase, both non-profitable and profitable tech stocks plunged in the first half of 2022. In the third phase, which is called the capitulation phase, the firm predicts the entire public sector is likely to face a downtrend and this phase is likely to last longer than the first two.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>It is not the right time to buy ETFs such as VOO that track the performance of the S&amp;P 500 index in my opinion. As several indicators are sending bear market warnings, the ETF is likely to suffer more losses in the months ahead. FedEx&#39;s poor results and lower outlook have raised concerns over significant earnings revisions for the full year and 2023. Sentiment would also be impacted by the worsening economic situation, as major economic regions are likely to enter recession in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, lofty valuations and historical trends indicate downside movement.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>VOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVOO: Fresh Lows Could Be Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-20 16:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541903-voo-fresh-lows-could-be-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268391042","content_text":"SummaryVanguard S&P 500 ETF is not offering a buying opportunity after the latest selloff.The downtrend is likely to accelerate in the coming months due to the looming recession and tightening monetary policies.Investor sentiment and valuations would be impacted by a large percentage of downside earnings revisions.The historical data also suggests that going long ahead of a recession is not a prudent strategy.ronniechuaThe S&P 500 is on the edge of a bear market once again as the recovery from mid-June to mid-August proved to be no more than a bear market rally, in my opinion. In the last thirty days, the indexplunged around 9% and is currently only a few percentage points higher than its mid-June lows. I believe the broader market index, as well as related ETFs such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO), are likely to hit new lows in the coming months, and the bear trend might last longer than the recent routes. What’s more concerning is that global GDP growth and corporate earnings are projected to fall further in the next year. In addition, historical trends suggest that the market has a lot more room to fall. Therefore, buying the latest dip doesn’t look like a prudent strategy to me.Demand Destruction Pushing Economies into RecessionTrue_insights (Bloomberg)Economic and monetary policy directly affect stock market performance. Historically, the US stock market has faced challenges when economic numbers drop, but bull markets usually occur when monetary conditions are easy and economic growth is stable. There have been 10 official U.S. recessions since 1957 and the stock market has lost 29% on average after each recession. In economics, high prices or limited supply guides demand destruction. A number of factors are contributing to demand destruction at the moment, including high inflation, tightening monetary policies, the Russian war, and the Chinese economic slowdown.Rating agencies and the World Bank are cutting their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 due to the negative impact of demand destruction on business activities. Fitch, for instance, slashed its 2022 global growth forecast for the third time in nine months to 2.4%, down by 0.5% from its June forecast. For 2023, it expects the global GDP to grow by only 1.7%. It also projects the eurozone and UK will enter recession in the December quarter of 2022, and that the recession will last longer. Fitch also predicts a mild recession in the United States in mid-2023.Earnings RevisionsAs it appears that economies will fall into recession from the December quarter, analysts and companies are cutting earnings expectations faster. For example, FedEx (FDX), one of the world's largest air freight and logistics companies, missed earnings expectations for the first quarter by a greater margin. Additionally, the company expects the situation to worsen in the next quarter.Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, Q1 results are below our expectations, CEO Raj Subramaniam said.It's evident from FedEx's earnings miss that the market environment is worse than many had predicted. In the quarters ahead, industrial, materials, and real estate sectors could face massive earnings reductions as a slower economic activity directly impacts their revenue generation capacities. This trend is also reflected in Seeking Alpha's poor quant grades for a large number of key industrial stocks. In contrast, mega-cap tech stocks including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) have seen an average earningsestimatedrop of 21.4% over the last 90 days, while projections for 2023 have declined 11.3%. In the case of VOO, the majority of its top 10 stock holdings, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have seen a large number of downside earnings revisions for 2022 and 2023.ValuationsThe S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio eased to around 16.9 at present, down from 1.84% in the previous quarter and 8.76% in the year-ago period. When stocks hit their 2022 low in mid-June, the forward PE was around 16.S&P 500's forward PE ratio could fall below its June lows if the bear trend intensifies in the coming months. Historically, PE ratios have fallen between 13 and 14 during recessions since 1990, with the exception of 2008 when the PE fell below 10. Further, a significant amount of earnings revisions in the coming quarters would put additional pressure on valuations. Any rally in stocks without earnings growth would make them expensive, and it appears that investors might not be willing to pay premiums ahead of a recession and tough monetary conditions.yardeni.com (8 tech mega-caps forward PE)There is also a big difference between the forward earnings ratio of the S&P 500 and that of mega-cap tech stocks. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia account for almost a quarter of the overall weight of the S&P 500 index and almost half of the S&P 500 growth index. These mega-cap tech stocks have on average a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of around 25. These stocks received either a D or F Seeking Alpha quant grade on valuations. S&P 500 might face steep losses in the days ahead if sentiments turn against paying a premium for big tech stocks due to recession and earnings revisions.Capitulation PhaseAfter hot CPI data and increasing prospects for recession, it appears that investors are selling stakes in fear of more losses, a situation known as a capitulation phase. In general, capitulation occurs during bear markets.Coatue Management (Investor Presentation)Coatue Management's investor presentation also hinted that the markets are in a capitulation phase where the entire stock market will fall before reaching its bottom. Philippe Laffont's investment firm held 80 percent of its portfolio in cash as of June 2022 following a large number of sales in the first half. Like the dot-com bear market, the firm says non-profitable tech stocks fell in the first phase of 2021. In the second phase, both non-profitable and profitable tech stocks plunged in the first half of 2022. In the third phase, which is called the capitulation phase, the firm predicts the entire public sector is likely to face a downtrend and this phase is likely to last longer than the first two.ConclusionIt is not the right time to buy ETFs such as VOO that track the performance of the S&P 500 index in my opinion. As several indicators are sending bear market warnings, the ETF is likely to suffer more losses in the months ahead. FedEx's poor results and lower outlook have raised concerns over significant earnings revisions for the full year and 2023. Sentiment would also be impacted by the worsening economic situation, as major economic regions are likely to enter recession in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, lofty valuations and historical trends indicate downside movement.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VOO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937907622,"gmtCreate":1663336489566,"gmtModify":1676537254719,"author":{"id":"4092554906611330","authorId":"4092554906611330","name":"Samuel123win","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb615bd9d23d3ee707625d59ccb06f5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092554906611330","idStr":"4092554906611330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Got","listText":"Got","text":"Got","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937907622","repostId":"1142186136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142186136","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663335158,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142186136?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 21:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow Drops 300 Points as Traders Fret over FedEx Warning, Wall Street Heads for Big Weekly Loss","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142186136","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stocks fell Friday as Wall Street headed toward a big losing week, and traders absorbed an ugly earn","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks fell Friday as Wall Street headed toward a big losing week, and traders absorbed an ugly earnings warning from FedEx about the global economy.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 335 points, or 1.1%. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.</p><p>Shares of FedEx plunged 23% after the shipments companywithdrew its full-year guidanceand said it will implement cost-cutting initiatives to contend with soft global shipment volumes as the global economy “significantly worsened.” Transport stocks are typically seen as a leading economic indicator, so FedEx’s announcement could contribute to broader declines on Friday.</p><p>“It very much is a bellwether, certainly traditionally,” Robert Teeter of Silvercrest Asset Management said on CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange.” ”[But] I think one of the things we’ve seen in this pandemic and post-pandemic economy is that different sectors are having different cycles.”</p><p>“No doubt the news the was not positive, and it certainly is a tell on the importance of margins going forward, which we think is a company by company issue,” Teeter added.</p><p>The three major averages were on pace to notch their fourth losing week in five as a comeback rally looks increasingly like a bear market bounce. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined 4.9% this week, while the S&amp;P 500 is 5.3% lower. The Nasdaq Composite is down 6.1%, headed toward its worst weekly loss since June.</p><p>The bulk of the losses came on Tuesday following a surprisingly hot reading in August’s consumer price index report, with the Dow losing 1,200 points in its worst decline in two years.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow Drops 300 Points as Traders Fret over FedEx Warning, Wall Street Heads for Big Weekly Loss</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow Drops 300 Points as Traders Fret over FedEx Warning, Wall Street Heads for Big Weekly Loss\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-16 21:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks fell Friday as Wall Street headed toward a big losing week, and traders absorbed an ugly earnings warning from FedEx about the global economy.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 335 points, or 1.1%. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.</p><p>Shares of FedEx plunged 23% after the shipments companywithdrew its full-year guidanceand said it will implement cost-cutting initiatives to contend with soft global shipment volumes as the global economy “significantly worsened.” Transport stocks are typically seen as a leading economic indicator, so FedEx’s announcement could contribute to broader declines on Friday.</p><p>“It very much is a bellwether, certainly traditionally,” Robert Teeter of Silvercrest Asset Management said on CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange.” ”[But] I think one of the things we’ve seen in this pandemic and post-pandemic economy is that different sectors are having different cycles.”</p><p>“No doubt the news the was not positive, and it certainly is a tell on the importance of margins going forward, which we think is a company by company issue,” Teeter added.</p><p>The three major averages were on pace to notch their fourth losing week in five as a comeback rally looks increasingly like a bear market bounce. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined 4.9% this week, while the S&amp;P 500 is 5.3% lower. The Nasdaq Composite is down 6.1%, headed toward its worst weekly loss since June.</p><p>The bulk of the losses came on Tuesday following a surprisingly hot reading in August’s consumer price index report, with the Dow losing 1,200 points in its worst decline in two years.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142186136","content_text":"Stocks fell Friday as Wall Street headed toward a big losing week, and traders absorbed an ugly earnings warning from FedEx about the global economy.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 335 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.Shares of FedEx plunged 23% after the shipments companywithdrew its full-year guidanceand said it will implement cost-cutting initiatives to contend with soft global shipment volumes as the global economy “significantly worsened.” Transport stocks are typically seen as a leading economic indicator, so FedEx’s announcement could contribute to broader declines on Friday.“It very much is a bellwether, certainly traditionally,” Robert Teeter of Silvercrest Asset Management said on CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange.” ”[But] I think one of the things we’ve seen in this pandemic and post-pandemic economy is that different sectors are having different cycles.”“No doubt the news the was not positive, and it certainly is a tell on the importance of margins going forward, which we think is a company by company issue,” Teeter added.The three major averages were on pace to notch their fourth losing week in five as a comeback rally looks increasingly like a bear market bounce. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined 4.9% this week, while the S&P 500 is 5.3% lower. The Nasdaq Composite is down 6.1%, headed toward its worst weekly loss since June.The bulk of the losses came on Tuesday following a surprisingly hot reading in August’s consumer price index report, with the Dow losing 1,200 points in its worst decline in two years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}