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2022-08-23

Great piece of analysis as always!

SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal

2022-04-13

Go hunting for eggs and be rewarded!!

@TigerEvents:🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!

2023-04-08

Good luck everyone! Wonderful rewards.

2022-12-20

She really needs to start taking her meds!

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-06-29

Thank you for this article and your insights. Pretty much confirms what I've been thinking! The mkt is so overbought it's crazy

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-25

I am betting that the market will be downhill all the way with the S&P index hitting the 3000 level by year end

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2025-04-23

Biggest idiot running the show in America now. Has no idea what he's doing. Probably doing more damage to the economy in the near and long term. Hope the country wakes up and impeach this clown ASAp!

Trump Says Tariff on China Will "Come Down Substantially" from 145 Percent

2023-04-10

Good luck everyone!! Fingers crossed I get a share!!

01-22

Ummmm... did anyone proof read this rubbish before publishing. Haven't you heard that Pat Gelsinger is no more the CEO. Please credit Lip Bu Tan for intel's turnaround. Idiots!

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-31

Another roller coaster week!

Federal Reserve Meeting, October Jobs Data, Uber and PayPal Earnings, and More for Investors to Watch this Week

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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did anyone proof read this rubbish before publishing. Haven't you heard that Pat Gelsinger is no more the CEO. Please credit Lip Bu Tan for intel's turnaround. Idiots!","listText":"Ummmm... did anyone proof read this rubbish before publishing. Haven't you heard that Pat Gelsinger is no more the CEO. Please credit Lip Bu Tan for intel's turnaround. Idiots!","text":"Ummmm... did anyone proof read this rubbish before publishing. Haven't you heard that Pat Gelsinger is no more the CEO. Please credit Lip Bu Tan for intel's turnaround. Idiots!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/524566123933776","repostId":"1153760300","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153760300","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Global Stock News First-Time Broadcast","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Stock News","id":"1036600163","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a"},"pubTimestamp":1769045502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153760300?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-01-22 09:31","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Intel (INTC.US) Q4 Preview: Revenue Expected to Drop 6%, Yet Analysts Remain Optimistic; Can AI Illuminate the Path for its Transformation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153760300","media":"Stock News","summary":"Intel (INTC.US) is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday. Wall Street anticipates the chipmaker will report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08 and...","content":"<p>Intel (INTC.US) is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday. Wall Street anticipates the chipmaker will report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08 and revenue of $13.39 billion, indicating a 6% decline in quarterly sales. The company's stock surged over 80% last year, significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500 index, which gained nearly 17% over the same period.</p>\n<p>For some time, the Santa Clara, California-based Intel has seen its market share in personal computers (PCs) eroded by rival AMD. However, under the leadership of CEO Pat Gelsinger, the company is executing a transformation strategy that includes substantial cost-cutting measures and a series of notable investments received last year from the likes of Nvidia and SoftBank.</p>\n<p>A stake of approximately 10% from the previous U.S. administration, coupled with a massive $11.1 billion investment from the U.S. government, has also significantly bolstered the company's balance sheet. Investors and analysts are now increasingly optimistic that the tailwind from artificial intelligence (AI), combined with the transformation plan, will yield positive results.</p>\n<p>Frank Lee, an analyst at HSBC, stated, \"We were previously cautious on Intel, primarily considering the overall uncertainty in its client channel, execution headwinds in its foundry business, and a lack of visibility on growth drivers for its core businesses.\" However, the investment bank added that it now expects a sharp increase in server CPU demand driven by the rise of agentic AI, projecting server shipments to grow 15%-20% year-over-year in fiscal 2026.</p>\n<p>UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri commented, \"Although supply remains tight, we still see an upside bias for the Q4 results based on strong PC and server demand, and we view the market's expectations for Q1 (March quarter) guidance—roughly in line with normal seasonality—as acceptable, especially given the strong base in the December quarter.\"</p>\n<p>While tightening global memory supply could also pose additional challenges to Intel's transformation, analysts noted that \"the 2026 guidance points to a recovery in growth, margin expansion, and business stabilization.\" Over the past two years, Intel has exceeded EPS expectations 63% of the time and surpassed revenue estimates 75% of the time.</p>\n<p>Over the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 16 upward revisions compared to 11 downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced 15 upward revisions against 16 downward revisions. Seeking Alpha, its quantitative rating system, and Wall Street analysts all maintain a cautious stance, assigning the stock a \"Neutral\" rating.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel (INTC.US) Q4 Preview: Revenue Expected to Drop 6%, Yet Analysts Remain Optimistic; Can AI Illuminate the Path for its Transformation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel (INTC.US) Q4 Preview: Revenue Expected to Drop 6%, Yet Analysts Remain Optimistic; Can AI Illuminate the Path for its Transformation?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036600163\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Stock News </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-22 09:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Intel (INTC.US) is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday. Wall Street anticipates the chipmaker will report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08 and revenue of $13.39 billion, indicating a 6% decline in quarterly sales. The company's stock surged over 80% last year, significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500 index, which gained nearly 17% over the same period.</p>\n<p>For some time, the Santa Clara, California-based Intel has seen its market share in personal computers (PCs) eroded by rival AMD. However, under the leadership of CEO Pat Gelsinger, the company is executing a transformation strategy that includes substantial cost-cutting measures and a series of notable investments received last year from the likes of Nvidia and SoftBank.</p>\n<p>A stake of approximately 10% from the previous U.S. administration, coupled with a massive $11.1 billion investment from the U.S. government, has also significantly bolstered the company's balance sheet. Investors and analysts are now increasingly optimistic that the tailwind from artificial intelligence (AI), combined with the transformation plan, will yield positive results.</p>\n<p>Frank Lee, an analyst at HSBC, stated, \"We were previously cautious on Intel, primarily considering the overall uncertainty in its client channel, execution headwinds in its foundry business, and a lack of visibility on growth drivers for its core businesses.\" However, the investment bank added that it now expects a sharp increase in server CPU demand driven by the rise of agentic AI, projecting server shipments to grow 15%-20% year-over-year in fiscal 2026.</p>\n<p>UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri commented, \"Although supply remains tight, we still see an upside bias for the Q4 results based on strong PC and server demand, and we view the market's expectations for Q1 (March quarter) guidance—roughly in line with normal seasonality—as acceptable, especially given the strong base in the December quarter.\"</p>\n<p>While tightening global memory supply could also pose additional challenges to Intel's transformation, analysts noted that \"the 2026 guidance points to a recovery in growth, margin expansion, and business stabilization.\" Over the past two years, Intel has exceeded EPS expectations 63% of the time and surpassed revenue estimates 75% of the time.</p>\n<p>Over the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 16 upward revisions compared to 11 downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced 15 upward revisions against 16 downward revisions. Seeking Alpha, its quantitative rating system, and Wall Street analysts all maintain a cautious stance, assigning the stock a \"Neutral\" rating.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2931357623.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2148611432.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION BALANCED BRAVE \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4602":"量子计算概念","INTC":"英特尔","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4612":"AI芯片","04335":"英特尔-T","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","BK4605":"半导体精选"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153760300","content_text":"Intel (INTC.US) is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday. Wall Street anticipates the chipmaker will report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08 and revenue of $13.39 billion, indicating a 6% decline in quarterly sales. The company's stock surged over 80% last year, significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500 index, which gained nearly 17% over the same period.\nFor some time, the Santa Clara, California-based Intel has seen its market share in personal computers (PCs) eroded by rival AMD. However, under the leadership of CEO Pat Gelsinger, the company is executing a transformation strategy that includes substantial cost-cutting measures and a series of notable investments received last year from the likes of Nvidia and SoftBank.\nA stake of approximately 10% from the previous U.S. administration, coupled with a massive $11.1 billion investment from the U.S. government, has also significantly bolstered the company's balance sheet. Investors and analysts are now increasingly optimistic that the tailwind from artificial intelligence (AI), combined with the transformation plan, will yield positive results.\nFrank Lee, an analyst at HSBC, stated, \"We were previously cautious on Intel, primarily considering the overall uncertainty in its client channel, execution headwinds in its foundry business, and a lack of visibility on growth drivers for its core businesses.\" However, the investment bank added that it now expects a sharp increase in server CPU demand driven by the rise of agentic AI, projecting server shipments to grow 15%-20% year-over-year in fiscal 2026.\nUBS analyst Timothy Arcuri commented, \"Although supply remains tight, we still see an upside bias for the Q4 results based on strong PC and server demand, and we view the market's expectations for Q1 (March quarter) guidance—roughly in line with normal seasonality—as acceptable, especially given the strong base in the December quarter.\"\nWhile tightening global memory supply could also pose additional challenges to Intel's transformation, analysts noted that \"the 2026 guidance points to a recovery in growth, margin expansion, and business stabilization.\" Over the past two years, Intel has exceeded EPS expectations 63% of the time and surpassed revenue estimates 75% of the time.\nOver the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 16 upward revisions compared to 11 downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced 15 upward revisions against 16 downward revisions. Seeking Alpha, its quantitative rating system, and Wall Street analysts all maintain a cautious stance, assigning the stock a \"Neutral\" rating.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"04335":1,"INTC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":427501271474688,"gmtCreate":1745391051847,"gmtModify":1745391778716,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Biggest idiot running the show in America now. Has no idea what he's doing. Probably doing more damage to the economy in the near and long term. Hope the country wakes up and impeach this clown ASAp!","listText":"Biggest idiot running the show in America now. Has no idea what he's doing. Probably doing more damage to the economy in the near and long term. Hope the country wakes up and impeach this clown ASAp!","text":"Biggest idiot running the show in America now. Has no idea what he's doing. Probably doing more damage to the economy in the near and long term. Hope the country wakes up and impeach this clown ASAp!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/427501271474688","repostId":"1125868026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125868026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1745381238,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125868026?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-04-23 12:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Trump Says Tariff on China Will \"Come Down Substantially\" from 145 Percent","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125868026","media":"The Hill","summary":"President Trump said Tuesday that the hefty tariff rate on China will significantly be reduced after he negotiates with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing optimism about a trade deal.“145 percen","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>President Trump said Tuesday that the hefty tariff rate on China will significantly be reduced after he negotiates with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing optimism about a trade deal.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“145 percent is very high. It won’t be that high, it’s not going to be that high … it won’t be anywhere near that high,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “It will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.”</p><p>The overall tariff level imposed on China is 145 percent, which remained in place after Trump delayed the “reciprocal” tariffs on other trading partners for 90 days and reduced them to 10 percent.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We’re going to be very nice. They’re going to be very nice, and we’ll see what happens. But ultimately, they have to make a deal because otherwise they’re not going to be able to deal in the United States,” Trump said, referring to China.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He cited his relationship with Xi as his reason for being optimistic about a deal. The White House said earlier Tuesday that it was “setting the stage for a deal with China,” seeking to reassure nervous financial markets and investors that progress with Beijing could be imminent.</p><p>“China was taking us for a ride, and it’s not going to happen. We’re going to be very good to China, have a great relationship with President Xi. But, they would make billions and billions and billions of dollars a year, and they would build their military out of the United States and what they made. So, that won’t happen,” Trump said. “But they’re going to do very well, and I think they’re going to be happy, and I think we’re going to live together very happily and ideally work together.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a private meeting of investors in Washington on Tuesday that he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the U.S. and China, according to multiple reports. China has levied retaliatory tariffs on American goods.</p><p>The president also said Tuesday that his team will “set the deal” when the 90-day pause has ended if trading partners are not able to reach one. And, he said he has been in talks with “many, many” world leaders in the weeks since he paused the reciprocal tariffs, predicting the negotiation process will “go pretty quickly.”</p><p>The administration has received 18 proposals from other countries as part of ongoing trade negotiations, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1657606627878","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trump Says Tariff on China Will \"Come Down Substantially\" from 145 Percent</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrump Says Tariff on China Will \"Come Down Substantially\" from 145 Percent\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-23 12:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5261948-trump-optimistic-china-trade/><strong>The Hill</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>President Trump said Tuesday that the hefty tariff rate on China will significantly be reduced after he negotiates with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing optimism about a trade deal.“145 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5261948-trump-optimistic-china-trade/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5261948-trump-optimistic-china-trade/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125868026","content_text":"President Trump said Tuesday that the hefty tariff rate on China will significantly be reduced after he negotiates with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing optimism about a trade deal.“145 percent is very high. It won’t be that high, it’s not going to be that high … it won’t be anywhere near that high,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “It will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.”The overall tariff level imposed on China is 145 percent, which remained in place after Trump delayed the “reciprocal” tariffs on other trading partners for 90 days and reduced them to 10 percent.“We’re going to be very nice. They’re going to be very nice, and we’ll see what happens. But ultimately, they have to make a deal because otherwise they’re not going to be able to deal in the United States,” Trump said, referring to China.He cited his relationship with Xi as his reason for being optimistic about a deal. The White House said earlier Tuesday that it was “setting the stage for a deal with China,” seeking to reassure nervous financial markets and investors that progress with Beijing could be imminent.“China was taking us for a ride, and it’s not going to happen. We’re going to be very good to China, have a great relationship with President Xi. But, they would make billions and billions and billions of dollars a year, and they would build their military out of the United States and what they made. So, that won’t happen,” Trump said. “But they’re going to do very well, and I think they’re going to be happy, and I think we’re going to live together very happily and ideally work together.”Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a private meeting of investors in Washington on Tuesday that he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the U.S. and China, according to multiple reports. China has levied retaliatory tariffs on American goods.The president also said Tuesday that his team will “set the deal” when the 90-day pause has ended if trading partners are not able to reach one. And, he said he has been in talks with “many, many” world leaders in the weeks since he paused the reciprocal tariffs, predicting the negotiation process will “go pretty quickly.”The administration has received 18 proposals from other countries as part of ongoing trade negotiations, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".SPX":1.1,".IXIC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192398742937768,"gmtCreate":1688002806890,"gmtModify":1688002810101,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you for this article and your insights. Pretty much confirms what I've been thinking! The mkt is so overbought it's crazy","listText":"Thank you for this article and your insights. Pretty much confirms what I've been thinking! The mkt is so overbought it's crazy","text":"Thank you for this article and your insights. Pretty much confirms what I've been thinking! The mkt is so overbought it's crazy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192398742937768","repostId":"2346816478","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942933225,"gmtCreate":1681098983767,"gmtModify":1681098986881,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck everyone!! Fingers crossed I get a share!!&nbsp;","listText":"Good luck everyone!! Fingers crossed I get a share!!&nbsp;","text":"Good luck everyone!! Fingers crossed I get a share!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942933225","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946448584,"gmtCreate":1681037818348,"gmtModify":1681037823498,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can we Please&nbsp;have more fun games with great prizes likethis?&nbsp;","listText":"Can we Please&nbsp;have more fun games with great prizes likethis?&nbsp;","text":"Can we Please have more fun games with great prizes likethis?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946448584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946665521,"gmtCreate":1680946212564,"gmtModify":1680946216366,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck everyone! Wonderful rewards.&nbsp;","listText":"Good luck everyone! Wonderful rewards.&nbsp;","text":"Good luck everyone! Wonderful rewards.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946665521","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581759598893994","authorId":"3581759598893994","name":"Jia92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f0c4ac1be2c8822a722a90ccf6bdc7e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581759598893994","idStr":"3581759598893994"},"content":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","html":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946665843,"gmtCreate":1680945874882,"gmtModify":1680945878376,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946665843","repostId":"9943960936","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9943960936,"gmtCreate":1679046534725,"gmtModify":1680580626622,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher","htmlText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign now","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c90a7371a3bcd1e6c552d2aa23f72c33","width":"1200","height":"630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943960936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926870732,"gmtCreate":1671521521827,"gmtModify":1676538549819,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"She really needs to start taking her meds!","listText":"She really needs to start taking her meds!","text":"She really needs to start taking her meds!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926870732","repostId":"1141302598","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982529857,"gmtCreate":1667214426779,"gmtModify":1676537878565,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another roller coaster week!","listText":"Another roller coaster week!","text":"Another roller coaster week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982529857","repostId":"2279823208","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2279823208","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1667172399,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2279823208?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 07:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Federal Reserve Meeting, October Jobs Data, Uber and PayPal Earnings, and More for Investors to Watch this Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2279823208","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n     It's another busy week of third-quarter earnings, plus an expected inte","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\nBy Nicholas Jasinski \n</pre>\n<p>\n     It's another busy week of third-quarter earnings, plus an expected interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The central bank's policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and is widely projected to lift its target rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth-straight time, to 3.75%-4%. The week closes with the October jobs report. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Some 160 S&amp;P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week. Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, and Stryker kick things off on Monday, followed by a busy Tuesday: Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Marathon Petroleum, Newmont, Pfizer, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies all report. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday's earnings highlights will include <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a>, CVS Health, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARA\">Paramount Global</a>, and Qualcomm. ConocoPhillips, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>, Moderna, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings, Starbucks, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">Warner Bros. Discovery</a> report on Thursday, then Cardinal Health and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DEX.AU\">Duke</a> Energy, close the week on Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Economic data to watch this week will include October employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On average, economists are forecasting a gain of 225,00 nonfarm payrolls, following growth of 263,000 in September. The unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 3.6%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will provide additional insight into the state of the U.S. labor market. Economist consensus calls for 9.75 million job openings on the last business day of September, which would be down by 300,000 from a month earlier. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Other economic data out this week includes th e Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October on Tuesday and the Services equivalent on Thursday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday 10/31 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Aflac, Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, Stryker, and Williams Cos. release earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Business Barometer for October. Consensus estimate is for a 47.1 reading, about two points more than September's 45.7. The September figure was the lowest and the first reading below 50 since June 2020, indicating a contracting economy. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 11/1 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Clorox, Devon Energy, Eaton, Electronic Arts, Eli Lilly, Marathon Petroleum, Mondelez International, Newmont, Pfizer, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10 million job openings on the last business day of September, 53,000 fewer than in August. Job openings fell by 1.1 million in August, the largest decline since the onset of the pandemic, suggesting that a historically tight job market might be loosening. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October. Expectations are for a 50 reading, one point less than in September. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 11/2 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Wall Street expects a three-quarters of a percentage point increase, bringing the federal-funds rate to 3.75%-4%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Allstate, APA, Booking Holdings, CVS Health, eBay, Emerson Electric, Equinix, Estée Lauder, Humana, MetLife, Novo Nordisk, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARAA\">Paramount Global</a>, Qualcomm, and Yum! Brands announce earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for October. The consensus call is for private-sector employment to increase by 199,000, slightly below the 208,000 gain in September. Job growth has moderated somewhat following a torrid 18-month stretch. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 11/3 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Amgen, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, Cummins, Exelon, Illumina, Intercontinental Exchange, Kellogg, Marriott International, Moderna, PayPal Holdings, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Starbucks, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Zoetis hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     ISM releases its Services PMI for October. Economists forecast a 55.3 reading, which would be slightly less than the September data. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 11/4 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Cardinal Health, Cboe Global Markets, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, and Hershey release earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for October. The economy is expected to add 200,000 nonfarm payrolls after a 263,000 increase in September. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 3.6% from 3.5%, near half-century lows. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  October 30, 2022 18:09 ET (22:09 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve Meeting, October Jobs Data, Uber and PayPal Earnings, and More for Investors to Watch this Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve Meeting, October Jobs Data, Uber and PayPal Earnings, and More for Investors to Watch this Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-31 07:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\nBy Nicholas Jasinski \n</pre>\n<p>\n     It's another busy week of third-quarter earnings, plus an expected interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The central bank's policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and is widely projected to lift its target rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth-straight time, to 3.75%-4%. The week closes with the October jobs report. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Some 160 S&amp;P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week. Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, and Stryker kick things off on Monday, followed by a busy Tuesday: Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Marathon Petroleum, Newmont, Pfizer, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies all report. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday's earnings highlights will include <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a>, CVS Health, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARA\">Paramount Global</a>, and Qualcomm. ConocoPhillips, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>, Moderna, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings, Starbucks, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">Warner Bros. Discovery</a> report on Thursday, then Cardinal Health and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DEX.AU\">Duke</a> Energy, close the week on Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Economic data to watch this week will include October employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On average, economists are forecasting a gain of 225,00 nonfarm payrolls, following growth of 263,000 in September. The unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 3.6%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will provide additional insight into the state of the U.S. labor market. Economist consensus calls for 9.75 million job openings on the last business day of September, which would be down by 300,000 from a month earlier. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Other economic data out this week includes th e Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October on Tuesday and the Services equivalent on Thursday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday 10/31 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Aflac, Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, Stryker, and Williams Cos. release earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Business Barometer for October. Consensus estimate is for a 47.1 reading, about two points more than September's 45.7. The September figure was the lowest and the first reading below 50 since June 2020, indicating a contracting economy. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 11/1 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Clorox, Devon Energy, Eaton, Electronic Arts, Eli Lilly, Marathon Petroleum, Mondelez International, Newmont, Pfizer, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10 million job openings on the last business day of September, 53,000 fewer than in August. Job openings fell by 1.1 million in August, the largest decline since the onset of the pandemic, suggesting that a historically tight job market might be loosening. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October. Expectations are for a 50 reading, one point less than in September. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 11/2 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Wall Street expects a three-quarters of a percentage point increase, bringing the federal-funds rate to 3.75%-4%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Allstate, APA, Booking Holdings, CVS Health, eBay, Emerson Electric, Equinix, Estée Lauder, Humana, MetLife, Novo Nordisk, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARAA\">Paramount Global</a>, Qualcomm, and Yum! Brands announce earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for October. The consensus call is for private-sector employment to increase by 199,000, slightly below the 208,000 gain in September. Job growth has moderated somewhat following a torrid 18-month stretch. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 11/3 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Amgen, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, Cummins, Exelon, Illumina, Intercontinental Exchange, Kellogg, Marriott International, Moderna, PayPal Holdings, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Starbucks, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Zoetis hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     ISM releases its Services PMI for October. Economists forecast a 55.3 reading, which would be slightly less than the September data. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 11/4 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Cardinal Health, Cboe Global Markets, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, and Hershey release earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for October. The economy is expected to add 200,000 nonfarm payrolls after a 263,000 increase in September. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 3.6% from 3.5%, near half-century lows. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  October 30, 2022 18:09 ET (22:09 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAH":"卡地纳健康","AMD":"美国超微公司","WBD":"WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC","ISBC":"投资者银行",".DJI":"道琼斯","PYPL":"PayPal",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MPC":"马拉松原油","UBER":"优步"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2279823208","content_text":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n     It's another busy week of third-quarter earnings, plus an expected interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The central bank's policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and is widely projected to lift its target rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth-straight time, to 3.75%-4%. The week closes with the October jobs report. \n\n\n     Some 160 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week. Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, and Stryker kick things off on Monday, followed by a busy Tuesday: Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Marathon Petroleum, Newmont, Pfizer, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies all report. \n\n\n     Wednesday's earnings highlights will include Booking Holdings, CVS Health, eBay, Paramount Global, and Qualcomm. ConocoPhillips, Illumina, Moderna, PayPal Holdings, Starbucks, and Warner Bros. Discovery report on Thursday, then Cardinal Health and Duke Energy, close the week on Friday. \n\n\n     Economic data to watch this week will include October employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On average, economists are forecasting a gain of 225,00 nonfarm payrolls, following growth of 263,000 in September. The unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 3.6%. \n\n\n     Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will provide additional insight into the state of the U.S. labor market. Economist consensus calls for 9.75 million job openings on the last business day of September, which would be down by 300,000 from a month earlier. \n\n\n     Other economic data out this week includes th e Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October on Tuesday and the Services equivalent on Thursday. \n\n\n     Monday 10/31 \n\n\n     Aflac, Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, Stryker, and Williams Cos. release earnings. \n\n\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Business Barometer for October. Consensus estimate is for a 47.1 reading, about two points more than September's 45.7. The September figure was the lowest and the first reading below 50 since June 2020, indicating a contracting economy. \n\n\n     Tuesday 11/1 \n\n\n     Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Clorox, Devon Energy, Eaton, Electronic Arts, Eli Lilly, Marathon Petroleum, Mondelez International, Newmont, Pfizer, Phillips 66, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies report quarterly results. \n\n\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10 million job openings on the last business day of September, 53,000 fewer than in August. Job openings fell by 1.1 million in August, the largest decline since the onset of the pandemic, suggesting that a historically tight job market might be loosening. \n\n\n     The ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October. Expectations are for a 50 reading, one point less than in September. \n\n\n     Wednesday 11/2 \n\n\n     The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Wall Street expects a three-quarters of a percentage point increase, bringing the federal-funds rate to 3.75%-4%. \n\n\n     Allstate, APA, Booking Holdings, CVS Health, eBay, Emerson Electric, Equinix, Estée Lauder, Humana, MetLife, Novo Nordisk, Paramount Global, Qualcomm, and Yum! Brands announce earnings. \n\n\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for October. The consensus call is for private-sector employment to increase by 199,000, slightly below the 208,000 gain in September. Job growth has moderated somewhat following a torrid 18-month stretch. \n\n\n     Thursday 11/3 \n\n\n     Amgen, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, Cummins, Exelon, Illumina, Intercontinental Exchange, Kellogg, Marriott International, Moderna, PayPal Holdings, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Starbucks, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Zoetis hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results. \n\n\n     ISM releases its Services PMI for October. Economists forecast a 55.3 reading, which would be slightly less than the September data. \n\n\n     Friday 11/4 \n\n\n     Cardinal Health, Cboe Global Markets, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, and Hershey release earnings. \n\n\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for October. The economy is expected to add 200,000 nonfarm payrolls after a 263,000 increase in September. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 3.6% from 3.5%, near half-century lows. \n\n\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  October 30, 2022 18:09 ET (22:09 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1,"CAH":1,".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,"WBD":1,"MPC":1,"PYPL":1,"AMD":1,"ISBC":1,"UBER":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992994348,"gmtCreate":1661239129887,"gmtModify":1676536481120,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great piece of analysis as always!&nbsp;","listText":"Great piece of analysis as always!&nbsp;","text":"Great piece of analysis as always!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992994348","repostId":"1113960584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113960584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661237527,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113960584?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-23 14:52","market":"other","language":"en","title":"SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113960584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.</li><li>The markets don&#39;t realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.</li><li>Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.</li><li>SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won&#39;t last long.</li><li>The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.</li></ul><p>In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM&#39;s &#34;stabilization,&#34; but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.</p><p>On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY&#39;s price mainly due to a &#34;strong fundamental week.&#34; However, I&#39;m firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.</p><p><b>Inflation breakdown</b></p><p>The CPI&#39;s YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose &#34;only&#34; by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil &amp; gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32fb983d571f92f960166b97b1eb1e09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)</p><p>As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.</p><p>Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed&#39;s medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16abe6e1dd19cfbe7ada120183feb6d6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)</p><p><b>Outlook on the monetary policy</b></p><p>I&#39;m strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I&#39;m a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a4b790ae098a035c35b830ca03c865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)</p><p>Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member&#39;s rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of &#34;soft-landing&#34; to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f3f05a2f5ce92a0dc8992ced3b6a53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)</p><p>Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed22002670360778cb46af429c3e6fd\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Real Yields vs. S&amp;P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p><b>The key driver of the latest rally was short-covering</b></p><p>As many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That&#39;s the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.</p><p>On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4500679330262cedb633a0fba418e7ad\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)</p><p>And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&amp;P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/984923367a1ab56eb4804dde1f6a5a07\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)</p><p>Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.</p><p><b>The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the market</b></p><p>The reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members&#39; statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed&#39;s key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.</p><p>Now, let&#39;s summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.</p><p>Fed&#39;s Bullard, according to Reuters:</p><blockquote><i>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank&#39;s earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.</i></blockquote><p>Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed&#39;s upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a &#34;reasonable&#34; way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.</p><p>Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed&#39;s Kashkari:</p><blockquote><i>So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.</i></blockquote><p>Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I&#39;m firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don&#39;t know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can&#39;t tell you, &#34;for sure we will cause a recession.&#34; However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.</p><p>However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the &#34;near-term spread,&#34; calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aced83130fc7620517eccea36b9a2d28\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><b>Earnings are lagged, CPI too</b></p><p>However, I&#39;m convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&amp;P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f434d630603e9b6a62684bdcc200676\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><b>Risks and Summary</b></p><p>Let&#39;s start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I&#39;m convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that&#39;s all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I&#39;m not convinced that is the case.</p><p>In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC&#39;s members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-23 14:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.The markets don't realize that fed members are in full ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113960584","content_text":"SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.The markets don't realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won't last long.The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM's \"stabilization,\" but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY's price mainly due to a \"strong fundamental week.\" However, I'm firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.Inflation breakdownThe CPI's YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose \"only\" by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil & gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed's medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)Outlook on the monetary policyI'm strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I'm a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member's rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of \"soft-landing\" to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.Real Yields vs. S&P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)The key driver of the latest rally was short-coveringAs many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That's the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the marketThe reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members' statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed's key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.Now, let's summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.Fed's Bullard, according to Reuters:St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank's earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a \"reasonable\" way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed's Kashkari:So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I'm firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don't know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can't tell you, \"for sure we will cause a recession.\" However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the \"near-term spread,\" calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)Earnings are lagged, CPI tooHowever, I'm convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)Risks and SummaryLet's start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I'm convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that's all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I'm not convinced that is the case.In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC's members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079886586,"gmtCreate":1657171213145,"gmtModify":1676535963913,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"As of today.. long","listText":"As of today.. long","text":"As of today.. long","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079886586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047276054,"gmtCreate":1656936169778,"gmtModify":1676535918230,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long for sure","listText":"Long for sure","text":"Long for sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047276054","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042596137,"gmtCreate":1656493589429,"gmtModify":1676535840128,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I agree with your analysis. I too have been accumulating but am waiting for another dip which maynot be too far away. Thanks for sharing!","listText":"I agree with your analysis. I too have been accumulating but am waiting for another dip which maynot be too far away. Thanks for sharing!","text":"I agree with your analysis. I too have been accumulating but am waiting for another dip which maynot be too far away. Thanks for sharing!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042596137","repostId":"1148096186","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148096186","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656486106,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148096186?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 15:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148096186","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Bu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Shares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.</li><li>Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In particular, Palantir continues to grow commercial revenue at a 50%+ y/y pace.</li><li>Products like Foundry, with massive TAMs, have the ambition of taking over AWS&#39; dominance in enterprise software.</li><li>Palantir is trading cheaply at ~9x forward revenue, especially as it expects to continue 30%+ y/y revenue growth for the next three years.</li></ul><p>If you were to ask me for a single stock I would choose to invest in for a year-end rebound, I wouldn&#39;t hesitate to name Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). This big data giant, a fabled software company for its close relationships with the U.S. government (particularly the armed forces), has seen a tremendous stock market reversal this year. Dropping quite suddenly from being one of the most celebrated and richly-valued tech stocks in the industry, Palantir has now shed half of its value.</p><p>It&#39;s time, in my view, for investors to take a hard second look at this name.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/435db134f2fc8dbf9289c062fbad1864\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p><b>What&#39;s going on with Palantir? Slightly soft guidance doesn&#39;t justify the massive share price collapse</b></p><p>First of all, let&#39;s address the recent goings-on with Palantir. If you look at the stock price chart above, you&#39;ll notice that Palantir&#39;s correction accelerated in May, after the company released Q1 earnings results and updated its guidance. Two things are at play here: of course, the broader stock market correction and &#34;risk off&#34; attitude have hammered high-growth stocks like Palantir.</p><p>Separately outside of that, investors reacted harshly to Palantir&#39;s Q2 guidance outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8c07bb7c75548a94a1abbbf47d3b54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir outlook(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>For Q2, Palantir is guiding to &#34;base case&#34; revenue of $470 million. This represents 30% y/y growth, and was below the $483.8 million (+34% y/y growth) that Wall Street had hoped for.</p><p>The key thing here, however: <b>Palantir has a &#34;wide range&#34; of potential upside drivers to this forecast.</b> The company has notoriously long offered very flimsy guidance targets relative to other companies and frequently sets a low bar for itself to cross. This guidance update should not be read as any meaningful slowdown in Palantir&#39;s go-to-market performance.</p><p><b>The long-term bull case is still vibrant</b></p><p>Wall Street and most investors are famously short-term oriented, but with a company like Palantir, we should be far more interested in the longer-term bullish thesis.</p><p>It&#39;s important to recognize that Palantir remains one of the leading software companies in big data and AI. Since its IPO only two years ago, the company has rolled out a slew of new products:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669be31c4037d75a919175406729f826\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir new products(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>Though not a new product, the product we should be watching closely is Palantir Foundry, which is the company&#39;s PaaS (platform-as-a-service) offering for both government and corporate clients to build and deploy applications. Palantir has ambitions of Foundry overtaking AWS as the central hub for app development. Per COO Shyam Sankar&#39;s prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:</p><blockquote>The greatest opportunity for Foundry continues to be the application development infrastructure platform. We believe that Foundry will become the place that you go to build the applications of the future. With AWS or Azure with their highly unopinionated collection of services, most of the work remains in front of you to get to value. And all of that onus is on you, the customer, to get to that value.</blockquote><blockquote>With Foundry, you&#39;re 90% of the way there on day 1. Software-defined data integration, native multi-tenancy for your applications, the OPIs, version pipelines, applications, artifacts, to just name some of the components, that make Foundry work from the start.</blockquote><blockquote>That&#39;s why U.S. Space Forces’, Kobayashi Maru factory realized their ambition, building 13 operationally accepted applications on top of Foundry in months while sunsetting legacy $100 million-plus programs. That&#39;s why Airbus rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower, a suite built on top of Foundry&#39;s application development infrastructure. And this set of applications, it mitigates supply chain issues and is working towards saving hundreds of millions of euros annually by speeding up production against existing fixed capacity and reducing inventory across all parts.</blockquote><blockquote>What AWS was in the last decade, Foundry will be in the next.&#34;</blockquote><p>Here, in my view, are all the key reasons to be bullish on Palantir for the long haul:</p><ul><li><b>Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.</b> Palantir isn&#39;t a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.</li><li><b>Growth at scale.</b> Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it&#39;s a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir&#39;s products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).</li><li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b> Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir&#39;s products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir&#39;s direct sales force can&#39;t handle.</li><li><b>One foot in the public sector, one foot in private</b>. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.</li><li><b>Free cash flow.</b> Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).</li></ul><p>In short, focus on the long-term expansion potential here: Q2 guidance is just noise, a drop in the bucket.</p><p><b>Formidable growth continues</b></p><p>Nor should investors get the impression that Palantir&#39;s growth in recent quarters has been lagging, either. One highlight to extract from Palantir&#39;s Q1 earnings results: total commercial revenue grew 54% y/y to $205 million. As seen in the chart below, that represents four straight quarters of acceleration:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833acc59cf63e20602348b8cb23afb9b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir commercial revenue performance(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>The company has also broadened its customer counts. At present, Palantir&#39;s business revolves primarily around large government contracts and mega blue-chip corporations. But with the company stepping up its go-to-market activities on the commercial side, the mid-market represents another major growth leg for Palantir that it has not yet tapped into. In Q1 alone, Palantir grew its customer base by 40 customers, or 17%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2cdeb72f8b2a25fe7b7a3a8320408f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir customer growth(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>For now, Palantir&#39;s growth metrics are still vibrant (and note as well that with 124% net revenue retention rates, there&#39;s plenty of revenue expansion happening within the existing install base too). The fact that the company is expecting to continue pushing for 30%+ y/y growth through 2025 is also quite rare for a company of its scale.</p><p><b>GAAP margins are drifting toward breakeven</b></p><p>One final point to extract from Palantir&#39;s latest Q1 results: though investors flagged Palantir&#39;s high GAAP losses at the time of its IPO, these margins are slowly converging toward break-even. In Q1, GAAP operating margins boosted to -9%, versus -33% in the year-ago Q1 (helped in no small part by the devaluation of Palantir&#39;s stock, which reduces stock-comp expenses on paper):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7c309dbda404642f0722d408632b6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir margin trends(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p><b>Valuation and key takeaways</b></p><p>In spite of Palantir&#39;s strengths and all its long-term potential, the stock is currently trading at what I consider to be an unmissable bargain. At current share prices just below $10, Palantir trades at a $19.70 billion market cap. After we net off the $2.52 billion of cash on Palantir&#39;s most recent balance sheet, its resulting <b>enterprise value is $17.16 billion.</b></p><p>For the current fiscal year FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting revenue of $1.99 billion (+29% y/y), and for next year FY23, consensus stands at $2.56 billion (+29% y/y). Both estimates, by the way, fall short of Palantir&#39;s stated guidance of maintaining 30%+ growth through 2025 (and so far, Palantir has never backed down on a commitment). Nevertheless, at Wall Street&#39;s consensus figures, the stock trades at:</p><ul><li><b>8.6x EV/FY22 revenue</b></li><li><b>6.7x EV/FY23 revenue</b></li></ul><p>There was a time when A) Palantir traded north of &gt;25x current-year revenue, and B) when software companies with mere 15-20% y/y growth traded at a 9-10x revenue multiple. Though I&#39;m not exactly calling for tech valuation multiples to revert to the excesses of 2021, I think Palantir looks incredibly cheap given its target to sustain 30% y/y growth for the long term.</p><p><b>The bottom line here:</b> Palantir is a rare combination of strong execution, unparalleled branding and reputation, a wide basket of massive-TAM products, and reasonable valuation. Don&#39;t miss this buying opportunity.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 15:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148096186","content_text":"SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In particular, Palantir continues to grow commercial revenue at a 50%+ y/y pace.Products like Foundry, with massive TAMs, have the ambition of taking over AWS' dominance in enterprise software.Palantir is trading cheaply at ~9x forward revenue, especially as it expects to continue 30%+ y/y revenue growth for the next three years.If you were to ask me for a single stock I would choose to invest in for a year-end rebound, I wouldn't hesitate to name Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). This big data giant, a fabled software company for its close relationships with the U.S. government (particularly the armed forces), has seen a tremendous stock market reversal this year. Dropping quite suddenly from being one of the most celebrated and richly-valued tech stocks in the industry, Palantir has now shed half of its value.It's time, in my view, for investors to take a hard second look at this name.Data byYChartsWhat's going on with Palantir? Slightly soft guidance doesn't justify the massive share price collapseFirst of all, let's address the recent goings-on with Palantir. If you look at the stock price chart above, you'll notice that Palantir's correction accelerated in May, after the company released Q1 earnings results and updated its guidance. Two things are at play here: of course, the broader stock market correction and \"risk off\" attitude have hammered high-growth stocks like Palantir.Separately outside of that, investors reacted harshly to Palantir's Q2 guidance outlook.Palantir outlook(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)For Q2, Palantir is guiding to \"base case\" revenue of $470 million. This represents 30% y/y growth, and was below the $483.8 million (+34% y/y growth) that Wall Street had hoped for.The key thing here, however: Palantir has a \"wide range\" of potential upside drivers to this forecast. The company has notoriously long offered very flimsy guidance targets relative to other companies and frequently sets a low bar for itself to cross. This guidance update should not be read as any meaningful slowdown in Palantir's go-to-market performance.The long-term bull case is still vibrantWall Street and most investors are famously short-term oriented, but with a company like Palantir, we should be far more interested in the longer-term bullish thesis.It's important to recognize that Palantir remains one of the leading software companies in big data and AI. Since its IPO only two years ago, the company has rolled out a slew of new products:Palantir new products(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)Though not a new product, the product we should be watching closely is Palantir Foundry, which is the company's PaaS (platform-as-a-service) offering for both government and corporate clients to build and deploy applications. Palantir has ambitions of Foundry overtaking AWS as the central hub for app development. Per COO Shyam Sankar's prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:The greatest opportunity for Foundry continues to be the application development infrastructure platform. We believe that Foundry will become the place that you go to build the applications of the future. With AWS or Azure with their highly unopinionated collection of services, most of the work remains in front of you to get to value. And all of that onus is on you, the customer, to get to that value.With Foundry, you're 90% of the way there on day 1. Software-defined data integration, native multi-tenancy for your applications, the OPIs, version pipelines, applications, artifacts, to just name some of the components, that make Foundry work from the start.That's why U.S. Space Forces’, Kobayashi Maru factory realized their ambition, building 13 operationally accepted applications on top of Foundry in months while sunsetting legacy $100 million-plus programs. That's why Airbus rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower, a suite built on top of Foundry's application development infrastructure. And this set of applications, it mitigates supply chain issues and is working towards saving hundreds of millions of euros annually by speeding up production against existing fixed capacity and reducing inventory across all parts.What AWS was in the last decade, Foundry will be in the next.\"Here, in my view, are all the key reasons to be bullish on Palantir for the long haul:Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways. Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.Growth at scale. Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).Stepping up go-to-market momentum. Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.One foot in the public sector, one foot in private. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.Free cash flow. Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).In short, focus on the long-term expansion potential here: Q2 guidance is just noise, a drop in the bucket.Formidable growth continuesNor should investors get the impression that Palantir's growth in recent quarters has been lagging, either. One highlight to extract from Palantir's Q1 earnings results: total commercial revenue grew 54% y/y to $205 million. As seen in the chart below, that represents four straight quarters of acceleration:Palantir commercial revenue performance(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)The company has also broadened its customer counts. At present, Palantir's business revolves primarily around large government contracts and mega blue-chip corporations. But with the company stepping up its go-to-market activities on the commercial side, the mid-market represents another major growth leg for Palantir that it has not yet tapped into. In Q1 alone, Palantir grew its customer base by 40 customers, or 17%.Palantir customer growth(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)For now, Palantir's growth metrics are still vibrant (and note as well that with 124% net revenue retention rates, there's plenty of revenue expansion happening within the existing install base too). The fact that the company is expecting to continue pushing for 30%+ y/y growth through 2025 is also quite rare for a company of its scale.GAAP margins are drifting toward breakevenOne final point to extract from Palantir's latest Q1 results: though investors flagged Palantir's high GAAP losses at the time of its IPO, these margins are slowly converging toward break-even. In Q1, GAAP operating margins boosted to -9%, versus -33% in the year-ago Q1 (helped in no small part by the devaluation of Palantir's stock, which reduces stock-comp expenses on paper):Palantir margin trends(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)Valuation and key takeawaysIn spite of Palantir's strengths and all its long-term potential, the stock is currently trading at what I consider to be an unmissable bargain. At current share prices just below $10, Palantir trades at a $19.70 billion market cap. After we net off the $2.52 billion of cash on Palantir's most recent balance sheet, its resulting enterprise value is $17.16 billion.For the current fiscal year FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting revenue of $1.99 billion (+29% y/y), and for next year FY23, consensus stands at $2.56 billion (+29% y/y). Both estimates, by the way, fall short of Palantir's stated guidance of maintaining 30%+ growth through 2025 (and so far, Palantir has never backed down on a commitment). Nevertheless, at Wall Street's consensus figures, the stock trades at:8.6x EV/FY22 revenue6.7x EV/FY23 revenueThere was a time when A) Palantir traded north of >25x current-year revenue, and B) when software companies with mere 15-20% y/y growth traded at a 9-10x revenue multiple. Though I'm not exactly calling for tech valuation multiples to revert to the excesses of 2021, I think Palantir looks incredibly cheap given its target to sustain 30% y/y growth for the long term.The bottom line here: Palantir is a rare combination of strong execution, unparalleled branding and reputation, a wide basket of massive-TAM products, and reasonable valuation. Don't miss this buying opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048190779,"gmtCreate":1656155364691,"gmtModify":1676535777577,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am betting that the market will be downhill all the way with the S&amp;P index hitting &nbsp;the&nbsp;3000 level by year end","listText":"I am betting that the market will be downhill all the way with the S&amp;P index hitting &nbsp;the&nbsp;3000 level by year end","text":"I am betting that the market will be downhill all the way with the S&P index hitting the 3000 level by year end","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048190779","repostId":"1192265091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043726808,"gmtCreate":1655968775204,"gmtModify":1676535742370,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I've been eyeing this stock. Maybe it's time ..?","listText":"I've been eyeing this stock. Maybe it's time ..?","text":"I've been eyeing this stock. Maybe it's time ..?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043726808","repostId":"1173738167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173738167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655963439,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173738167?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-23 13:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Panic Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173738167","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryShort interest in Palantir dropped by nearly 19% in the last cycle.Palantir saw one of the hi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Short interest in Palantir dropped by nearly 19% in the last cycle.</li><li>Palantir saw one of the highest short unwinding amongst its peer group.</li><li>Palantir stock seems to be forming a bottom, and it may not have much downside potential from current levels.</li></ul><p>Palantir Technologies Inc.’s (NYSE:PLTR) shares are down 70% over the past one year alone, and its long-term investors have been left holding the bag. The question that everyone is asking now is if Palantir’s shares have bottomed out or if its capitulation point is yet to come. Amidst the ongoing selloff and the ensuing confusion, there has been a positive development. Short interest in Palantir dropped by almost 19% in the last cycle. This suggests that the selling pressure is cooling down and that the stock may be in the process of forming a bottom. Let’s take a closer look to gain a better understanding of it all.</p><p><b>Shorting Subsides</b></p><p>For the uninitiated, short interest is basically the total number of short positions that are open and are yet to be covered. A sharp drop in the metric indicates that short-side market participants have actively wound up their positions as, perhaps, they feel the stock has become fairly valued and doesn’t have much downside potential left. Conversely, a rapid buildup of short interest suggests that market participants are actively shorting the concerned stock, anticipating that it’ll quickly depreciate in value in the foreseeable future. So, the short interest metric is a useful tool to gauge the Street’s ever-evolving sentiment pertaining to any given stock.</p><p>In Palantir’s case, its short interest amounted to about 107 million at the end of the last reporting cycle. This figure may not mean much in isolation but it actually amounts to roughly 6.5% of the company’s total floating shares. What’s even more interesting here is that this figure is down by nearly 19% within one month. This considerable reduction indicates that short-side market participants actively wound up their positions in Palantir during the last cycle.</p><p>Next, I wanted to see if this short covering was prevalent in the entire software infrastructure industry or if was elevated specifically in Palantir’s case. So, I pulled up the short interest data for 30 other software infrastructure stocks listed on U.S. bourses, that had at least $1 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue. The results were rather interesting. As it turns out, Palantir saw one of the highest levels of short unwinding in the last cycle. This indicates that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir, than with the other stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79a0476cc0b147a103afae4c80cf8bfd\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Another point to note here is that this short unwinding took place while Palantir’s shares were still subdued. If the bears had a credible thesis for the company, they would have held onto the short positions a little longer in a bid to profit from further price declines. But these traders covered their short positions instead, perhaps because they perceive the stock to have bottomed out and/or have little downside potential from current levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09001933cad6efe01125732e9dcfcbd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>This begs the question – why are market participants actively unwinding their short positions in Palantir in the first place?</p><p><b>Reasons for Caution</b></p><p>There are broadly 3 reasons as to why market participants may be scrambling to cover their shorts in Palantir. First, the stock has already dropped by a considerable amount over the last year and it’s now valued more or less at par with some of the other rapidly-growing names belonging to the software infrastructure industry. This suggests that Palantir’s shares may have limited downside potential from current levels, thereby making them moribund for short-side traders.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e32bcefedbbdaf4003a9e48f90ccbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Secondly, Palantir was lambasted in investing circles for several months after its direct listing about how its commercial business wasn’t taking off. While some bears suggested that Palantir’s revenue growth entirely hinged on its government ties and secret deals, others felt that the company didn’t have any moat to compete in the commercial space. But those days are in the past, as Palantir’s commercial revenue growth has finally taken off in recent quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f10d330e80a97d6395a18202685bb0f\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"709\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>Third, Palantir’s commercial revenue growth momentum is likely to continue in the foreseeable future as well, and the segment is likely to become a major growth driver for the company as a whole. See, Palantir has been adding customers at a rapid rate. Its commercial customer count in Q1 was up 205% year-over-year whereas its commercial revenue was up 56% in the said time frame.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e05bcf6c8e623301a6d6031023264a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p>This leads me to believe that these new customers are starting out with relatively smaller contracts and they’re likely to gradually ramp up spending on Palantir’s platforms as their personnel get familiarized with the new workflows and the companies drop their legacy reporting tools. This implies that Palantir’s commercial revenue growth momentum will remain at elevated levels and eventually become the predominant growth driver for the entire company.</p><p>Besides, I’ve also covered in my prior articles how Palantir’s stock-based compensation is subsiding and is no longer a cause of concern, how its insider selling has dropped substantially, and why the company will be relatively unfazed in an inflationary environment. All these factors, collectively, suggest that Palantir’s shares are bottoming out at current levels, making it a very risky short for the time being at least.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>I’d like to clarify that short interest data highlights trades that have already taken place in the past. It does not predict trades that are yet to take place and/or the ensuing price action. So, this data should, at best, be used to confirm the trade direction and to ascertain if the underlying investment thesis lines up with shorting activity.</p><p>Having said that, the sharp short interest reduction in Palantir should come as a relief for its long-side shareholders. It indicates that the incessant selloff in the stock may now be over and the security may be in the process of forming a bottom. Therefore, I believe this may be a good time to accumulate the stock with a long-term time horizon. Good Luck!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Panic Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Panic Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-23 13:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519536-palantir-panic-time><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryShort interest in Palantir dropped by nearly 19% in the last cycle.Palantir saw one of the highest short unwinding amongst its peer group.Palantir stock seems to be forming a bottom, and it may...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519536-palantir-panic-time\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519536-palantir-panic-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173738167","content_text":"SummaryShort interest in Palantir dropped by nearly 19% in the last cycle.Palantir saw one of the highest short unwinding amongst its peer group.Palantir stock seems to be forming a bottom, and it may not have much downside potential from current levels.Palantir Technologies Inc.’s (NYSE:PLTR) shares are down 70% over the past one year alone, and its long-term investors have been left holding the bag. The question that everyone is asking now is if Palantir’s shares have bottomed out or if its capitulation point is yet to come. Amidst the ongoing selloff and the ensuing confusion, there has been a positive development. Short interest in Palantir dropped by almost 19% in the last cycle. This suggests that the selling pressure is cooling down and that the stock may be in the process of forming a bottom. Let’s take a closer look to gain a better understanding of it all.Shorting SubsidesFor the uninitiated, short interest is basically the total number of short positions that are open and are yet to be covered. A sharp drop in the metric indicates that short-side market participants have actively wound up their positions as, perhaps, they feel the stock has become fairly valued and doesn’t have much downside potential left. Conversely, a rapid buildup of short interest suggests that market participants are actively shorting the concerned stock, anticipating that it’ll quickly depreciate in value in the foreseeable future. So, the short interest metric is a useful tool to gauge the Street’s ever-evolving sentiment pertaining to any given stock.In Palantir’s case, its short interest amounted to about 107 million at the end of the last reporting cycle. This figure may not mean much in isolation but it actually amounts to roughly 6.5% of the company’s total floating shares. What’s even more interesting here is that this figure is down by nearly 19% within one month. This considerable reduction indicates that short-side market participants actively wound up their positions in Palantir during the last cycle.Next, I wanted to see if this short covering was prevalent in the entire software infrastructure industry or if was elevated specifically in Palantir’s case. So, I pulled up the short interest data for 30 other software infrastructure stocks listed on U.S. bourses, that had at least $1 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue. The results were rather interesting. As it turns out, Palantir saw one of the highest levels of short unwinding in the last cycle. This indicates that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir, than with the other stocks.BusinessQuant.comAnother point to note here is that this short unwinding took place while Palantir’s shares were still subdued. If the bears had a credible thesis for the company, they would have held onto the short positions a little longer in a bid to profit from further price declines. But these traders covered their short positions instead, perhaps because they perceive the stock to have bottomed out and/or have little downside potential from current levels.BusinessQuant.comThis begs the question – why are market participants actively unwinding their short positions in Palantir in the first place?Reasons for CautionThere are broadly 3 reasons as to why market participants may be scrambling to cover their shorts in Palantir. First, the stock has already dropped by a considerable amount over the last year and it’s now valued more or less at par with some of the other rapidly-growing names belonging to the software infrastructure industry. This suggests that Palantir’s shares may have limited downside potential from current levels, thereby making them moribund for short-side traders.BusinessQuant.comSecondly, Palantir was lambasted in investing circles for several months after its direct listing about how its commercial business wasn’t taking off. While some bears suggested that Palantir’s revenue growth entirely hinged on its government ties and secret deals, others felt that the company didn’t have any moat to compete in the commercial space. But those days are in the past, as Palantir’s commercial revenue growth has finally taken off in recent quarters.BusinessQuant.comThird, Palantir’s commercial revenue growth momentum is likely to continue in the foreseeable future as well, and the segment is likely to become a major growth driver for the company as a whole. See, Palantir has been adding customers at a rapid rate. Its commercial customer count in Q1 was up 205% year-over-year whereas its commercial revenue was up 56% in the said time frame.BusinessQuant.comThis leads me to believe that these new customers are starting out with relatively smaller contracts and they’re likely to gradually ramp up spending on Palantir’s platforms as their personnel get familiarized with the new workflows and the companies drop their legacy reporting tools. This implies that Palantir’s commercial revenue growth momentum will remain at elevated levels and eventually become the predominant growth driver for the entire company.Besides, I’ve also covered in my prior articles how Palantir’s stock-based compensation is subsiding and is no longer a cause of concern, how its insider selling has dropped substantially, and why the company will be relatively unfazed in an inflationary environment. All these factors, collectively, suggest that Palantir’s shares are bottoming out at current levels, making it a very risky short for the time being at least.Final ThoughtsI’d like to clarify that short interest data highlights trades that have already taken place in the past. It does not predict trades that are yet to take place and/or the ensuing price action. So, this data should, at best, be used to confirm the trade direction and to ascertain if the underlying investment thesis lines up with shorting activity.Having said that, the sharp short interest reduction in Palantir should come as a relief for its long-side shareholders. It indicates that the incessant selloff in the stock may now be over and the security may be in the process of forming a bottom. Therefore, I believe this may be a good time to accumulate the stock with a long-term time horizon. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057066246,"gmtCreate":1655437315485,"gmtModify":1676535639939,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aunty Cathie is off her rockers!","listText":"Aunty Cathie is off her rockers!","text":"Aunty Cathie is off her rockers!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057066246","repostId":"1197485224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054323271,"gmtCreate":1655344967493,"gmtModify":1676535619124,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Join now for great prizes!","listText":"Join now for great prizes!","text":"Join now for great prizes!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054323271","repostId":"9022524674","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9022524674,"gmtCreate":1653552819200,"gmtModify":1676535303082,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Time Travel with Tiger, Join the Memorabilia Adventure Now!!!","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi\n \n","listText":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","text":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022524674","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"97af7069aa6440eab7c85601f72b41b1","tweetId":"9022524674","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/5836ee3f387702302012189230/1IRQdazMc4YA.mp4","poster":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2462b20b2a9a2483ae56cbb54dcb2a7"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017749680,"gmtCreate":1649813693081,"gmtModify":1676534581965,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094219147101600","idStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go hunting for eggs and be rewarded!!&nbsp;","listText":"Go hunting for eggs and be rewarded!!&nbsp;","text":"Go hunting for eggs and be rewarded!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017749680","repostId":"9016476123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9016476123,"gmtCreate":1649229403658,"gmtModify":1676534474180,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","listText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","text":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please click here to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b435c0d10e0e89ad3e06b7bbd04830","width":"2251","height":"1334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff9640a9df2f24446e07b7a9b658cb4b","width":"1200","height":"630"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/795038848b7c7b1d7dda27d92b580946","width":"1656","height":"948"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016476123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000133","authorId":"9000000000000133","name":"WalterD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/913bd7c943b66ec0e8fdf377f9038692","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000133","idStr":"9000000000000133"},"content":"That is quite interesting, I agree.","text":"That is quite interesting, I agree.","html":"That is quite interesting, I agree."},{"author":{"id":"3479274730958210","authorId":"3479274730958210","name":"historyiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673f24849e790c3aa318f19aa443d828","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274730958210","idStr":"3479274730958210"},"content":"The reward could be tremendous and I like your opinion...","text":"The reward could be tremendous and I like your opinion...","html":"The reward could be tremendous and I like your opinion..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9992994348,"gmtCreate":1661239129887,"gmtModify":1676536481120,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094219147101600","authorIdStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great piece of analysis as always!&nbsp;","listText":"Great piece of analysis as always!&nbsp;","text":"Great piece of analysis as always!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992994348","repostId":"1113960584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113960584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661237527,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113960584?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-23 14:52","market":"other","language":"en","title":"SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113960584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.</li><li>The markets don&#39;t realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.</li><li>Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.</li><li>SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won&#39;t last long.</li><li>The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.</li></ul><p>In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM&#39;s &#34;stabilization,&#34; but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.</p><p>On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY&#39;s price mainly due to a &#34;strong fundamental week.&#34; However, I&#39;m firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.</p><p><b>Inflation breakdown</b></p><p>The CPI&#39;s YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose &#34;only&#34; by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil &amp; gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32fb983d571f92f960166b97b1eb1e09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)</p><p>As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.</p><p>Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed&#39;s medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16abe6e1dd19cfbe7ada120183feb6d6\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)</p><p><b>Outlook on the monetary policy</b></p><p>I&#39;m strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I&#39;m a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a4b790ae098a035c35b830ca03c865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)</p><p>Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member&#39;s rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of &#34;soft-landing&#34; to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f3f05a2f5ce92a0dc8992ced3b6a53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)</p><p>Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fed22002670360778cb46af429c3e6fd\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Real Yields vs. S&amp;P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)</p><p><b>The key driver of the latest rally was short-covering</b></p><p>As many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That&#39;s the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.</p><p>On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4500679330262cedb633a0fba418e7ad\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)</p><p>And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&amp;P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/984923367a1ab56eb4804dde1f6a5a07\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)</p><p>Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.</p><p><b>The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the market</b></p><p>The reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members&#39; statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed&#39;s key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.</p><p>Now, let&#39;s summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.</p><p>Fed&#39;s Bullard, according to Reuters:</p><blockquote><i>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank&#39;s earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.</i></blockquote><p>Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed&#39;s upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a &#34;reasonable&#34; way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.</p><p>Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed&#39;s Kashkari:</p><blockquote><i>So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.</i></blockquote><p>Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I&#39;m firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don&#39;t know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can&#39;t tell you, &#34;for sure we will cause a recession.&#34; However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.</p><p>However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the &#34;near-term spread,&#34; calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aced83130fc7620517eccea36b9a2d28\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><b>Earnings are lagged, CPI too</b></p><p>However, I&#39;m convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&amp;P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f434d630603e9b6a62684bdcc200676\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)</p><p><b>Risks and Summary</b></p><p>Let&#39;s start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I&#39;m convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that&#39;s all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I&#39;m not convinced that is the case.</p><p>In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC&#39;s members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Time To Get Out, Weak Short Sale Volumes Indicate Reversal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-23 14:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.The markets don't realize that fed members are in full ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536168-spy-time-to-get-out-weak-short-sale-volumes-indicate-reversal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113960584","content_text":"SummaryThe base effect was the fundamental reason why inflation had peaked. It will be challenging to stop the most lagged part of inflation.The markets don't realize that fed members are in full hawkish mode. Although the market is certain about a soft-landing, the fed indicator suggests a recession.Short-covering contributed to the latest bear market rally significantly. As there are very low short sales volumes right now, the reversion could be next.SPY significantly deviated from real yields (strong inverse correlation) and this exemption won't last long.The macroeconomic outlook could worsen with additional rate hikes, which is not supportive for EPS.In my most recent bond analysis, which focused on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), inflation, and monetary outlook, we predicted that the YoY and MoM inflation peaks would both occur in the months of July - September. I wagered that commodity prices would decline and that other leading indicators would also dramatically deteriorate. However the Fed responds to the most lagging inflation parts, the CPI/PCE/core CPI report from July is not initially bullish. Lower commodities prices had a significant impact on the MoM's \"stabilization,\" but the most lagging drivers to the CPI - shelter and services are still quite high and are still increasing. The necessary items, which the Fed wants to stabilize, are not stabilizing.On first glance, the market rallied due to strong data from inflation prints, but in our breakdown, the data has not been strong at all. SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) deviated from the long-term inverse correlation between real yields and SPY's price mainly due to a \"strong fundamental week.\" However, I'm firmly convinced this was another bear market rally. Medium-term inflation expectations rose, which is not a good case for stocks. In summary, we can await more rate hikes to come, more than the market currently prices in.Inflation breakdownThe CPI's YoY growth was still high at 8.5% and rose in July by zero percent. However, the core CPI rose \"only\" by 0.2%, which was lower than the consensus. Nevertheless, if you make an inflation breakdown, you will see the drivers. Motor fuel (oil & gas) has contributed very negatively to the overall CPI monthly change. This item is the most current in the lagged CPI. However, the most lagging components of the CPI are housing, food prices, medical care services, and other services, and it will take some time for these inputs to stabilize or decline.CPI monthly change(@MacroAlf)As I stated in my previous analysis on TLT, the consumer destruction will take place in 2-3 months. The issue is that supply-side inflation (mainly oil, gas, and other commodities) can be impacted only indirectly - mainly by lowered demand. That is what we see in the commodity market right now. Industrial commodities and the ones that have a great impact on overall CPI started to decline. But it does not reflect only demand destruction but also the quite strong economic slowdown (forward-looking). I still believe inflation will go down, but mainly due to the strong base effect caused by the measured style-YoY comparison. The much more important figure will be core inflation on a monthly basis.Still, if inflation were to be zero on a monthly basis till the end of the year, it would still be at 6.5%, and if it were to be longer, it would be at 3.3% in March. Still significantly above the fed's medium-term target. I am confident that inflation will fall, and that we will see a significant slowdown in 4Q2022, but this must be accompanied by a continued reduction in consumption and GDP growth forecasts.Projecting CPI at Year-End(BLS, Cleveland Federal Reserve Nowcast)Outlook on the monetary policyI'm strongly convinced that inflation will go down on a YoY basis. On the other hand, I'm a little bit less convinced by the MoM point of view. To support this scenario, the fed will need to be very hawkish to convince the market that it will do so. Despite still having a very inverted yield curve, the market started to price in fewer rate cuts than anticipated 2-3 weeks ago. And this is all on the back of lower-than-expected inflation figures from a week ago. The spread between Fed funds futures rates in Dec 2022 and Dec 2023 is reaching less than -0.2, thus implying market expectations of almost only one rate cut till Dec 2023.Spread between FFF 12/2022 and 12/2023(Author´s calculation via Tradingview)Despite the fact that the market began slightly repeating the FOMC member's rhetoric, the stocks rallied significantly. It is because the market believed the narrative of \"soft-landing\" to be more probable than before inflation prints. However, the inflation fight is still not over. I consider this rally unsustainable and not supported by the macro fundamentals. After the inflation print, rates expectations measured by Fed funds futures rose quite significantly.Rates expectations measured by FFF(Author´s calculations via Tradingview)Thus, retail investors are fairly misled by inflation print and soft-landing. This scenario does not support the thesis of being bullish at current levels. However, for me, the very strong narrative stands behind the real yields and SPY. There is a very strong negative correlation among the variables, which the market fully ignored until Friday.Real Yields vs. S&P500(Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research)The key driver of the latest rally was short-coveringAs many investors / traders followed the inflation print and saw a market rally, they massively closed their short positions or bets, which led to a significant rally from the bottom. That's the true reason why the market rallied in the previous weeks. And it only makes sense to me because macro fundamentals such as real yields and other leading indicators have all worsened, just hand in hand with a strong labor market. Despite the rise in real yields, the market rallied in recent weeks, their negative correlation deviated significantly from normal conditions, giving me no reason to be bullish from a macro perspective.On the contrary, as I said, the rally was caused mainly by short covering (the closing of short position) and it was the 3rd most aggressive short-covering in the latest ten years.Short covering / Short selling(GS Prime Book via Investro)And also a great chart from @MacroCharts, which measures the sum of (QQQ) deltas, indicated that this massive rally was caused by a full switch of position. As there are monitored deltas for QQQ, I believe it will be similar for the S&P 500 or SPY, because major stocks from QQQ are also integrated with significant weights in SPY. From the extremely short to the extremely long ones. For me, it is absolutely unsustainable to remain at such levels, and the rising probability of further downturn, combined with macro fundamentals, gives me quite strong confidence.Sum of QQQ Deltas(Charlie Mcelligott / Nomura via @MacroCharts)Another very important measure, which I highly recommend, is to follow short sale volumes for SPY/QQQ and others. The chart below just implies there is a lack of shorts or very low activity in short selling, which is a great contrarian indicator. The 10-day moving average of short sale volume, measured by FINRA, indicates there is a lack of short sale volume, indicates the market is probably exhausted. It also confirms the thesis of short-covering rally in the previous weeks as well. Just look at the significant numbers of short selling in mid June, in hand with the market bottom. There should be no surprises about the following market squeeze or strong short-covering activity. Currently, I see a strong reversal situation, thus giving room for another leg down in SPY. However, I also could be wrong, but combined with the real yields narrative, the worsening economic situation, and the strong contrarian indicator of short sale volume, I am firmly convinced this was another bear market rally.The Fed believes a soft landing is less likely than the marketThe reason why I believe such a narrative is caused by FOMC members' statements as well as by the data-driven approach. First of all, there are leading indicators that are screaming to us that inflation as well as economic growth will slow down. However, as previously stated, the YoY will slow, and the MoM will most likely stabilize. However, even if there is a 0% MoM change until the end of the year, inflation will still be significantly above the medium term horizon and above the fed's key target. With so strong numbers from the labor market, the fed can be calm to focus really on inflation and to tame it. The sacrifice would be economic growth. This is the reason why I believe rate hikes will continue until the fed sees a portion of lagging core CPI MoM moving around -0.2% to 0.1% in the medium term.Now, let's summarize some of the latest statements from FOMC members.Fed's Bullard, according to Reuters:St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was among the central bank's earliest advocates last year of a more muscular response to fast-building price pressures, said that given the strength of the economy he is currently leaning toward supporting a third straight 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September.Also, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,stated earlier on Thursday that raising rates by 50 or 75 basis points at the fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 20-21 would be a \"reasonable\" way to raise short-term borrowing costs to slightly above 3% by the end of this year and put them on a path to a little bit higher in 2023.Also a kindly hawkish note from the Fed's Kashkari:So the question right now is, can we bring inflation down without triggering a recession? And my answer to that question is: I don’t know. Fed has more work to do in raising interest rates to bring inflation down.Despite the better than expected inflation print, the fight is not over and there must be a clear indication of tightening conditions that will continue to bring inflation down. Until then, the market still hopes for a soft-landing as in 2019, but this is really different story. I'm firmly convinced it will bring a bigger economic slowdown than the current one, but I don't know if it will be a big recession. Probably not. But it will be harder than soft-landing. Kashkari is one of the first FOMC members to admit that they are unsure whether it will cause the recession or not. They just can't tell you, \"for sure we will cause a recession.\" However, in the previous months, when the yield curve started to be inverted, the fed screamed that it was not an appropriate indicator of recession. The opposite is the truth.However, the fed released its own indicator of forecasting recession, slightly different than the classic yield curve, which had not been inverted before. It is now fully inverted, which, according to previous fed papers, should clearly indicate a recession going forward. A great chart from@MacroAlfcalculated the development of this indicator, and as it was almost one month ago, it started to be inverted, thus confirming that the fed knows and is aware of the ongoing recession. Regardless of what they say. It was the only opinion as the yield curve started to be inverted that it was better to monitor the \"near-term spread,\" calculated as 18m forward 3m yields minus 3m yields, as it is a much more precise predictor of the upcoming recession.Fed´s preferred yield curve indicator(@MacroAlf)Earnings are lagged, CPI tooHowever, I'm convinced that CPI will go down and the fed will tame inflation. The issue is that there will be an EPS drop as well. To tame inflation rapidly, it is necessary to cause an economic slowdown. However, it is happening right now, and many leading indicators are confirming this thesis. Companies are oversupplied (with inventories), commodity prices are falling, and PMI and new orders are dropping too. Oil is falling; however, natural gas recovered from the total drawdown seen in July. Nevertheless, the macro indicators tell me that inflation will calm down, but the fed needs to continue doing its job and focus on inflation. I also believe that it can cause a mild recession and then we could see slight rate cuts in 2023. The next chart shows the leading indicator - G5 Credit Impulse and its impact on S&P 500 EPS as well as CPI YoY. Both are well lagged vs. their leading indicator, which leads by 4-5 quarters. This also supports our thesis, thus giving room for EPS decline as well as for CPI decline.G5 Credit impluse as leading indicator(@MacroAlf)Risks and SummaryLet's start with the risk to our thesis. The first risk can be that I have wrongly detected another bear market rally and where a bull market started. I do not say we will find the new bottom. Currently, I'm convinced that under current macro circumstances, followed by sale volumes and short-covering narrative, the market is overbought and should decline 5-15% from its current levels. The next risk to this thesis is that inflation will fall fast with a soft-landing. Although I see a little probability, it is still a kind of scenario. When inflation, mainly core inflation, drops significantly, it could cause the fed to stop the tightening cycle and, after 2-3 quarters, to ease conditions rapidly. And that's all without economic damage, with a strong labor market and slight economic growth. Currently, I'm not convinced that is the case.In my opinion, the short scenario has significantly bigger odds right now for plenty of reasons: Real yields and the SPY correlation have significantly deteriorated and deviated, which is unsustainable in my opinion. Additionally, we saw that due to strong short-covering rally - the 3rd largest in the last 10 years. Next reason is that there is a lack of short sellers right now, which could indicate a short-term market peak. The market rally could be exhausted because there are no short sellers. The next indicator is the still and tireless statements from FOMC's members, which are still very hawkish, and the best case is to DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. The most recent narrative remains focused on inflation print. Very volatile figures and the most current ones as motor fuel, transportation, and others are down, but it depends on prices (on the market). However, the fed wants to see the most lagging parts as a shelter, services, and demand side inflation to cool down. It will take some time, and I believe we will see that. But also, it will have a negative impact on EPS. Also, I can be wrong, but these are the key reasons why I firmly believe that the market is exhausted (upwards) and a short-term rally downwards could continue.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017749680,"gmtCreate":1649813693081,"gmtModify":1676534581965,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094219147101600","authorIdStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go hunting for eggs and be rewarded!!&nbsp;","listText":"Go hunting for eggs and be rewarded!!&nbsp;","text":"Go hunting for eggs and be rewarded!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017749680","repostId":"9016476123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9016476123,"gmtCreate":1649229403658,"gmtModify":1676534474180,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","listText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","text":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please click here to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b435c0d10e0e89ad3e06b7bbd04830","width":"2251","height":"1334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff9640a9df2f24446e07b7a9b658cb4b","width":"1200","height":"630"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/795038848b7c7b1d7dda27d92b580946","width":"1656","height":"948"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016476123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000133","authorId":"9000000000000133","name":"WalterD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/913bd7c943b66ec0e8fdf377f9038692","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000133","authorIdStr":"9000000000000133"},"content":"That is quite interesting, I agree.","text":"That is quite interesting, I agree.","html":"That is quite interesting, I agree."},{"author":{"id":"3479274730958210","authorId":"3479274730958210","name":"historyiong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673f24849e790c3aa318f19aa443d828","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274730958210","authorIdStr":"3479274730958210"},"content":"The reward could be tremendous and I like your opinion...","text":"The reward could be tremendous and I like your opinion...","html":"The reward could be tremendous and I like your opinion..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946665521,"gmtCreate":1680946212564,"gmtModify":1680946216366,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094219147101600","authorIdStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck everyone! Wonderful rewards.&nbsp;","listText":"Good luck everyone! Wonderful rewards.&nbsp;","text":"Good luck everyone! Wonderful rewards.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946665521","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581759598893994","authorId":"3581759598893994","name":"Jia92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f0c4ac1be2c8822a722a90ccf6bdc7e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581759598893994","authorIdStr":"3581759598893994"},"content":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","html":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926870732,"gmtCreate":1671521521827,"gmtModify":1676538549819,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094219147101600","authorIdStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"She really needs to start taking her meds!","listText":"She really needs to start taking her meds!","text":"She really needs to start taking her meds!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926870732","repostId":"1141302598","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192398742937768,"gmtCreate":1688002806890,"gmtModify":1688002810101,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094219147101600","authorIdStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you for this article and your insights. Pretty much confirms what I've been thinking! The mkt is so overbought it's crazy","listText":"Thank you for this article and your insights. Pretty much confirms what I've been thinking! The mkt is so overbought it's crazy","text":"Thank you for this article and your insights. Pretty much confirms what I've been thinking! The mkt is so overbought it's crazy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192398742937768","repostId":"2346816478","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048190779,"gmtCreate":1656155364691,"gmtModify":1676535777577,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094219147101600","authorIdStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I am betting that the market will be downhill all the way with the S&amp;P index hitting &nbsp;the&nbsp;3000 level by year end","listText":"I am betting that the market will be downhill all the way with the S&amp;P index hitting &nbsp;the&nbsp;3000 level by year end","text":"I am betting that the market will be downhill all the way with the S&P index hitting the 3000 level by year end","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048190779","repostId":"1192265091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":427501271474688,"gmtCreate":1745391051847,"gmtModify":1745391778716,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094219147101600","authorIdStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Biggest idiot running the show in America now. Has no idea what he's doing. Probably doing more damage to the economy in the near and long term. Hope the country wakes up and impeach this clown ASAp!","listText":"Biggest idiot running the show in America now. Has no idea what he's doing. Probably doing more damage to the economy in the near and long term. Hope the country wakes up and impeach this clown ASAp!","text":"Biggest idiot running the show in America now. Has no idea what he's doing. Probably doing more damage to the economy in the near and long term. Hope the country wakes up and impeach this clown ASAp!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/427501271474688","repostId":"1125868026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125868026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1745381238,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125868026?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-04-23 12:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Trump Says Tariff on China Will \"Come Down Substantially\" from 145 Percent","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125868026","media":"The Hill","summary":"President Trump said Tuesday that the hefty tariff rate on China will significantly be reduced after he negotiates with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing optimism about a trade deal.“145 percen","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>President Trump said Tuesday that the hefty tariff rate on China will significantly be reduced after he negotiates with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing optimism about a trade deal.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“145 percent is very high. It won’t be that high, it’s not going to be that high … it won’t be anywhere near that high,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “It will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.”</p><p>The overall tariff level imposed on China is 145 percent, which remained in place after Trump delayed the “reciprocal” tariffs on other trading partners for 90 days and reduced them to 10 percent.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“We’re going to be very nice. They’re going to be very nice, and we’ll see what happens. But ultimately, they have to make a deal because otherwise they’re not going to be able to deal in the United States,” Trump said, referring to China.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He cited his relationship with Xi as his reason for being optimistic about a deal. The White House said earlier Tuesday that it was “setting the stage for a deal with China,” seeking to reassure nervous financial markets and investors that progress with Beijing could be imminent.</p><p>“China was taking us for a ride, and it’s not going to happen. We’re going to be very good to China, have a great relationship with President Xi. But, they would make billions and billions and billions of dollars a year, and they would build their military out of the United States and what they made. So, that won’t happen,” Trump said. “But they’re going to do very well, and I think they’re going to be happy, and I think we’re going to live together very happily and ideally work together.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a private meeting of investors in Washington on Tuesday that he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the U.S. and China, according to multiple reports. China has levied retaliatory tariffs on American goods.</p><p>The president also said Tuesday that his team will “set the deal” when the 90-day pause has ended if trading partners are not able to reach one. And, he said he has been in talks with “many, many” world leaders in the weeks since he paused the reciprocal tariffs, predicting the negotiation process will “go pretty quickly.”</p><p>The administration has received 18 proposals from other countries as part of ongoing trade negotiations, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1657606627878","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trump Says Tariff on China Will \"Come Down Substantially\" from 145 Percent</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrump Says Tariff on China Will \"Come Down Substantially\" from 145 Percent\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-23 12:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5261948-trump-optimistic-china-trade/><strong>The Hill</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>President Trump said Tuesday that the hefty tariff rate on China will significantly be reduced after he negotiates with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing optimism about a trade deal.“145 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5261948-trump-optimistic-china-trade/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5261948-trump-optimistic-china-trade/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125868026","content_text":"President Trump said Tuesday that the hefty tariff rate on China will significantly be reduced after he negotiates with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing optimism about a trade deal.“145 percent is very high. It won’t be that high, it’s not going to be that high … it won’t be anywhere near that high,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “It will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.”The overall tariff level imposed on China is 145 percent, which remained in place after Trump delayed the “reciprocal” tariffs on other trading partners for 90 days and reduced them to 10 percent.“We’re going to be very nice. They’re going to be very nice, and we’ll see what happens. But ultimately, they have to make a deal because otherwise they’re not going to be able to deal in the United States,” Trump said, referring to China.He cited his relationship with Xi as his reason for being optimistic about a deal. The White House said earlier Tuesday that it was “setting the stage for a deal with China,” seeking to reassure nervous financial markets and investors that progress with Beijing could be imminent.“China was taking us for a ride, and it’s not going to happen. We’re going to be very good to China, have a great relationship with President Xi. But, they would make billions and billions and billions of dollars a year, and they would build their military out of the United States and what they made. So, that won’t happen,” Trump said. “But they’re going to do very well, and I think they’re going to be happy, and I think we’re going to live together very happily and ideally work together.”Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a private meeting of investors in Washington on Tuesday that he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the U.S. and China, according to multiple reports. China has levied retaliatory tariffs on American goods.The president also said Tuesday that his team will “set the deal” when the 90-day pause has ended if trading partners are not able to reach one. And, he said he has been in talks with “many, many” world leaders in the weeks since he paused the reciprocal tariffs, predicting the negotiation process will “go pretty quickly.”The administration has received 18 proposals from other countries as part of ongoing trade negotiations, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".SPX":1.1,".IXIC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942933225,"gmtCreate":1681098983767,"gmtModify":1681098986881,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094219147101600","authorIdStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck everyone!! Fingers crossed I get a share!!&nbsp;","listText":"Good luck everyone!! Fingers crossed I get a share!!&nbsp;","text":"Good luck everyone!! Fingers crossed I get a share!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942933225","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":524566123933776,"gmtCreate":1769093904766,"gmtModify":1769095048170,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094219147101600","authorIdStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ummmm... did anyone proof read this rubbish before publishing. Haven't you heard that Pat Gelsinger is no more the CEO. Please credit Lip Bu Tan for intel's turnaround. Idiots!","listText":"Ummmm... did anyone proof read this rubbish before publishing. Haven't you heard that Pat Gelsinger is no more the CEO. Please credit Lip Bu Tan for intel's turnaround. Idiots!","text":"Ummmm... did anyone proof read this rubbish before publishing. Haven't you heard that Pat Gelsinger is no more the CEO. Please credit Lip Bu Tan for intel's turnaround. Idiots!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/524566123933776","repostId":"1153760300","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982529857,"gmtCreate":1667214426779,"gmtModify":1676537878565,"author":{"id":"4094219147101600","authorId":"4094219147101600","name":"MidnightTrader","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff1d23fa994aa398451eea50bc54fa60","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094219147101600","authorIdStr":"4094219147101600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another roller coaster week!","listText":"Another roller coaster week!","text":"Another roller coaster week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982529857","repostId":"2279823208","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2279823208","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1667172399,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2279823208?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 07:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Federal Reserve Meeting, October Jobs Data, Uber and PayPal Earnings, and More for Investors to Watch this Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2279823208","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n     It's another busy week of third-quarter earnings, plus an expected inte","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\nBy Nicholas Jasinski \n</pre>\n<p>\n     It's another busy week of third-quarter earnings, plus an expected interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The central bank's policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and is widely projected to lift its target rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth-straight time, to 3.75%-4%. The week closes with the October jobs report. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Some 160 S&amp;P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week. Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, and Stryker kick things off on Monday, followed by a busy Tuesday: Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Marathon Petroleum, Newmont, Pfizer, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies all report. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday's earnings highlights will include <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a>, CVS Health, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARA\">Paramount Global</a>, and Qualcomm. ConocoPhillips, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>, Moderna, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings, Starbucks, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">Warner Bros. Discovery</a> report on Thursday, then Cardinal Health and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DEX.AU\">Duke</a> Energy, close the week on Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Economic data to watch this week will include October employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On average, economists are forecasting a gain of 225,00 nonfarm payrolls, following growth of 263,000 in September. The unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 3.6%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will provide additional insight into the state of the U.S. labor market. Economist consensus calls for 9.75 million job openings on the last business day of September, which would be down by 300,000 from a month earlier. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Other economic data out this week includes th e Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October on Tuesday and the Services equivalent on Thursday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday 10/31 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Aflac, Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, Stryker, and Williams Cos. release earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Business Barometer for October. Consensus estimate is for a 47.1 reading, about two points more than September's 45.7. The September figure was the lowest and the first reading below 50 since June 2020, indicating a contracting economy. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 11/1 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Clorox, Devon Energy, Eaton, Electronic Arts, Eli Lilly, Marathon Petroleum, Mondelez International, Newmont, Pfizer, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10 million job openings on the last business day of September, 53,000 fewer than in August. Job openings fell by 1.1 million in August, the largest decline since the onset of the pandemic, suggesting that a historically tight job market might be loosening. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October. Expectations are for a 50 reading, one point less than in September. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 11/2 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Wall Street expects a three-quarters of a percentage point increase, bringing the federal-funds rate to 3.75%-4%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Allstate, APA, Booking Holdings, CVS Health, eBay, Emerson Electric, Equinix, Estée Lauder, Humana, MetLife, Novo Nordisk, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARAA\">Paramount Global</a>, Qualcomm, and Yum! Brands announce earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for October. The consensus call is for private-sector employment to increase by 199,000, slightly below the 208,000 gain in September. Job growth has moderated somewhat following a torrid 18-month stretch. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 11/3 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Amgen, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, Cummins, Exelon, Illumina, Intercontinental Exchange, Kellogg, Marriott International, Moderna, PayPal Holdings, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Starbucks, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Zoetis hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     ISM releases its Services PMI for October. Economists forecast a 55.3 reading, which would be slightly less than the September data. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 11/4 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Cardinal Health, Cboe Global Markets, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, and Hershey release earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for October. The economy is expected to add 200,000 nonfarm payrolls after a 263,000 increase in September. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 3.6% from 3.5%, near half-century lows. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  October 30, 2022 18:09 ET (22:09 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve Meeting, October Jobs Data, Uber and PayPal Earnings, and More for Investors to Watch this Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve Meeting, October Jobs Data, Uber and PayPal Earnings, and More for Investors to Watch this Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-31 07:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<pre>\nBy Nicholas Jasinski \n</pre>\n<p>\n     It's another busy week of third-quarter earnings, plus an expected interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The central bank's policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and is widely projected to lift its target rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth-straight time, to 3.75%-4%. The week closes with the October jobs report. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Some 160 S&amp;P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week. Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, and Stryker kick things off on Monday, followed by a busy Tuesday: Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Marathon Petroleum, Newmont, Pfizer, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies all report. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday's earnings highlights will include <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a>, CVS Health, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARA\">Paramount Global</a>, and Qualcomm. ConocoPhillips, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>, Moderna, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings, Starbucks, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">Warner Bros. Discovery</a> report on Thursday, then Cardinal Health and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DEX.AU\">Duke</a> Energy, close the week on Friday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Economic data to watch this week will include October employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On average, economists are forecasting a gain of 225,00 nonfarm payrolls, following growth of 263,000 in September. The unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 3.6%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will provide additional insight into the state of the U.S. labor market. Economist consensus calls for 9.75 million job openings on the last business day of September, which would be down by 300,000 from a month earlier. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Other economic data out this week includes th e Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October on Tuesday and the Services equivalent on Thursday. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Monday 10/31 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Aflac, Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, Stryker, and Williams Cos. release earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Business Barometer for October. Consensus estimate is for a 47.1 reading, about two points more than September's 45.7. The September figure was the lowest and the first reading below 50 since June 2020, indicating a contracting economy. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Tuesday 11/1 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Clorox, Devon Energy, Eaton, Electronic Arts, Eli Lilly, Marathon Petroleum, Mondelez International, Newmont, Pfizer, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSX\">Phillips 66</a>, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies report quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10 million job openings on the last business day of September, 53,000 fewer than in August. Job openings fell by 1.1 million in August, the largest decline since the onset of the pandemic, suggesting that a historically tight job market might be loosening. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October. Expectations are for a 50 reading, one point less than in September. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Wednesday 11/2 \n</p>\n<p>\n     The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Wall Street expects a three-quarters of a percentage point increase, bringing the federal-funds rate to 3.75%-4%. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Allstate, APA, Booking Holdings, CVS Health, eBay, Emerson Electric, Equinix, Estée Lauder, Humana, MetLife, Novo Nordisk, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARAA\">Paramount Global</a>, Qualcomm, and Yum! Brands announce earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for October. The consensus call is for private-sector employment to increase by 199,000, slightly below the 208,000 gain in September. Job growth has moderated somewhat following a torrid 18-month stretch. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Thursday 11/3 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Amgen, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, Cummins, Exelon, Illumina, Intercontinental Exchange, Kellogg, Marriott International, Moderna, PayPal Holdings, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Starbucks, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Zoetis hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results. \n</p>\n<p>\n     ISM releases its Services PMI for October. Economists forecast a 55.3 reading, which would be slightly less than the September data. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Friday 11/4 \n</p>\n<p>\n     Cardinal Health, Cboe Global Markets, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, and Hershey release earnings. \n</p>\n<p>\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for October. The economy is expected to add 200,000 nonfarm payrolls after a 263,000 increase in September. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 3.6% from 3.5%, near half-century lows. \n</p>\n<p>\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  October 30, 2022 18:09 ET (22:09 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAH":"卡地纳健康","AMD":"美国超微公司","WBD":"WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC","ISBC":"投资者银行",".DJI":"道琼斯","PYPL":"PayPal",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MPC":"马拉松原油","UBER":"优步"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2279823208","content_text":"By Nicholas Jasinski \n\n\n     It's another busy week of third-quarter earnings, plus an expected interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve. The central bank's policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and is widely projected to lift its target rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth-straight time, to 3.75%-4%. The week closes with the October jobs report. \n\n\n     Some 160 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week. Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, and Stryker kick things off on Monday, followed by a busy Tuesday: Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Marathon Petroleum, Newmont, Pfizer, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies all report. \n\n\n     Wednesday's earnings highlights will include Booking Holdings, CVS Health, eBay, Paramount Global, and Qualcomm. ConocoPhillips, Illumina, Moderna, PayPal Holdings, Starbucks, and Warner Bros. Discovery report on Thursday, then Cardinal Health and Duke Energy, close the week on Friday. \n\n\n     Economic data to watch this week will include October employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On average, economists are forecasting a gain of 225,00 nonfarm payrolls, following growth of 263,000 in September. The unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 3.6%. \n\n\n     Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will provide additional insight into the state of the U.S. labor market. Economist consensus calls for 9.75 million job openings on the last business day of September, which would be down by 300,000 from a month earlier. \n\n\n     Other economic data out this week includes th e Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October on Tuesday and the Services equivalent on Thursday. \n\n\n     Monday 10/31 \n\n\n     Aflac, Arista Networks, NXP Semiconductors, Stryker, and Williams Cos. release earnings. \n\n\n     The Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Business Barometer for October. Consensus estimate is for a 47.1 reading, about two points more than September's 45.7. The September figure was the lowest and the first reading below 50 since June 2020, indicating a contracting economy. \n\n\n     Tuesday 11/1 \n\n\n     Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, BP, Clorox, Devon Energy, Eaton, Electronic Arts, Eli Lilly, Marathon Petroleum, Mondelez International, Newmont, Pfizer, Phillips 66, Simon Property Group, and Uber Technologies report quarterly results. \n\n\n     The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 10 million job openings on the last business day of September, 53,000 fewer than in August. Job openings fell by 1.1 million in August, the largest decline since the onset of the pandemic, suggesting that a historically tight job market might be loosening. \n\n\n     The ISM releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for October. Expectations are for a 50 reading, one point less than in September. \n\n\n     Wednesday 11/2 \n\n\n     The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Wall Street expects a three-quarters of a percentage point increase, bringing the federal-funds rate to 3.75%-4%. \n\n\n     Allstate, APA, Booking Holdings, CVS Health, eBay, Emerson Electric, Equinix, Estée Lauder, Humana, MetLife, Novo Nordisk, Paramount Global, Qualcomm, and Yum! Brands announce earnings. \n\n\n     ADP releases its National Employment Report for October. The consensus call is for private-sector employment to increase by 199,000, slightly below the 208,000 gain in September. Job growth has moderated somewhat following a torrid 18-month stretch. \n\n\n     Thursday 11/3 \n\n\n     Amgen, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, Cummins, Exelon, Illumina, Intercontinental Exchange, Kellogg, Marriott International, Moderna, PayPal Holdings, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Starbucks, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Zoetis hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results. \n\n\n     ISM releases its Services PMI for October. Economists forecast a 55.3 reading, which would be slightly less than the September data. \n\n\n     Friday 11/4 \n\n\n     Cardinal Health, Cboe Global Markets, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, and Hershey release earnings. \n\n\n     The BLS releases the jobs report for October. The economy is expected to add 200,000 nonfarm payrolls after a 263,000 increase in September. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 3.6% from 3.5%, near half-century lows. \n\n\n     Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  October 30, 2022 18:09 ET (22:09 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1,"CAH":1,".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,"WBD":1,"MPC":1,"PYPL":1,"AMD":1,"ISBC":1,"UBER":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}