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2022-03-30

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Apple Stock: $3 Trillion Back in Focus

2022-07-27

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With the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?

2022-05-02

Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies

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2022-03-30

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AMC Stock Springs Back to Life, but Buyer Beware

2022-07-02

Recover to what level ?

Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?

2022-03-30

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2022-03-26

ATH

3 Top Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Long Haul

2022-04-26

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SOFI Stock Could Fall 36.5% to 80% of Book Value During a Recession

2022-03-31

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3 Growth Stocks With Monster Upside of Up to 331%, According to Wall Street

2022-03-30

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Tesla, Amazon Stock Splits Trigger Retail Stampede

2022-05-20

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Meme Stocks Remained High in Morning Trading, with Palantir and AMC Rising Over 2%

2022-04-28

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Understand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?

2022-03-31

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Apple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion

2022-09-08

RIP

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2022-07-27

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Night Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent "black swans"?

2022-06-03

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What to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released

2022-05-24

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2022-05-10

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Tesla recalls vehicles again, totaling 129,960 vehicles

2022-05-09

OMG

Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading

2022-04-26

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7 Undervalued Growth Stocks to Buy for Q2

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The longest standby queen in history who witnessed the rise and fall of Britain</b></a></p><p>On September 8th, local time, Queen Elizabeth II died at Balmoral Castle in Scotland at the age of 96.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30b37cc5e316e5c1e37637eca3323cd\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Earlier that day, Buckingham Palace issued a statement saying that Queen Elizabeth II was under medical supervision because doctors were worried about her health. The statement said that the Queen is in good condition and is under medical supervision at Balmoral Castle in Scotland.</p><p>Then, the Queen's closest family rushed to Balmoral Castle. Since the end of last year, the Queen of England has reduced her public appearances due to her health and other conditions. On the 6th, 96-year-old Queen Elizabeth II accepted Johnson's resignation at Balmoral Castle and officially appointed Truss as the new Prime Minister.</p><p>Elizabeth II was born in London on April 21, 1926. Princess Elizabeth became Queen in 1952 at the age of 25 when her father, King George VI, died. From Sir Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, the Queen saw 15 British prime ministers during her reign. In 2015, she became the longest-reigning British monarch in history, breaking a record set by her great-great-grandmother, Queen Victoria.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa6e93ce943bb2e91bf835f5641a16e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>The official obituary of the royal family</span></p><p>According to the official account of the British royal family, after the death of Elizabeth II, Prince Charles immediately became the new monarch of Britain. The King and Queen will remain in Balmoral tonight and return to London tomorrow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd9972679a6bb7b97091f3604492c912\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b82f18dd18fe6f971fe56092e5b087c\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elizabeth II was born on April 21, 1926, ascended the throne in 1952 and became Britain's longest-reigning monarch in September 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a97c7554c4f9811c2d53ec6f6eb176\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen looked slightly haggard and unable to move as she met her outgoing defence minister on February 16</p><p>On September 8th, Buckingham Palace said that the Queen's doctors expressed \"concern\" about the Queen's health and advised the Queen to \"continue to be under medical supervision\".</p><p>The Queen of England has been plagued by health problems since October last year. In February this year, Queen Elizabeth II celebrated her 70th anniversary on the throne.</p><p>In the same month, Buckingham Palace announced that Queen Elizabeth II Novel Coronavirus had tested positive and had mild symptoms.</p><p>Earlier, Crown Prince Charles of England and his wife Camilla Novel Coronavirus tested positive.</p><p>After COVID-19 recovered, the Queen did not return to everyone's vision, and it was difficult to stand and walk.</p><p>On March 14th this year, the Queen was unexpectedly absent at the Commonwealth Memorial Day, and the whole of Britain was surprised.</p><p>The queen who \"wants to attend the anniversary at all costs\" is really in poor health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98fe269af81e6b196ea4ee2db5ea0de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80f44187cbf0d3f78089d883ca06fa2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen has always been tough, and she will never use a wheelchair if she can stand. However, in the last part of her life, the staff installed an elevator and a safety wheelchair in her residence.</p><p>As you still remember, on April 9 last year,<b>Prince Philip, who walked hand in hand with the Queen for 74 years, died,</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d41ea99bf9b4d18885d045d6af44b01\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A minute of silence was observed across the UK, and 30 members of the royal family held a 50-minute funeral for him inside Windsor Castle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817cb15c8788101c3c5394f20be3736a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The queen, dressed in black, sat in the car and wept silently.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8f9794a86bf4e8f4b9f3fff0464544\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>After that, the Queen's health also frequently exposed problems.</b></p><p>One month after Philip's death, the royal family returned to work in an all-round way,</p><p>When the Queen attended the opening ceremony of Parliament, she was suddenly thin. It can be seen that she was in a low mood and lost her former smile and appearance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7bbff6e680751ac6e578566788a1d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In September, the Queen refused emergency knee surgery that made it difficult to walk,</p><p>On October 12, she first appeared on crutches while attending the Royal British Legion Centennial Ceremony,</p><p>The scene caused an uproar and sparked speculation about the Queen's health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1a766c221106dbf3b5e383617baef5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although there are two pet dogs at home, the queen still looks haggard and has lost her spiritual support.</p><p>On October 20th, Buckingham Palace issued a statement,<b>Said that at the advice of doctors, the Queen canceled her visit to Northern Ireland scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.</b></p><p>The Queen will follow the doctor's advice to rest well in the next few days, although she is reluctant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a1d61c0a8142adc1a80738295f5703\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87fc8b57d6574fb9642d049c8554b62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>That night, however, the Queen went straight to the hospital,</p><p>This is the first time she has been hospitalized in the past eight years, and the last time she suffered from stomach problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d382739be0011a9a7385fa46e70fb5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9c8afcd7359483057de627ffc517cbd\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As soon as this breaking news came out, even the British people who gradually deviated from the royal family were anxious.</p><p>\"Is the Queen alright?\"</p><p>According to the report,<b>The Queen's health issues have nothing to do with Covid.</b></p><p>After a string of health accidents, the Queen's doctor reminded her, \"It's time to stop drinking.\"</p><p>The queen likes to drink, drinking martinis every night for decades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3d5ef8a4270bc76657e20ea04eb947\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce473187a5551cdb7b3d4f38aa86420\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although her health went from bad to worse, the Queen's mental condition was still very good at that time,</p><p>In October, she also refused the title of \"Old Man of the Year\" offered by a magazine.</p><p>Because she thinks she's still young.</p><p>According to the British Associated Press, although she was trapped at home, she still insisted on doing some \"easy official business\".</p><p>On November 14th, the pain struck again-</p><p><b>The Queen was absent from the Memorial Day ceremony because of a sprained back.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072c46829b7b8df7af01648534014275\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f46acebbe50e509ea2a532fa12fa52a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"809\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A Buckingham Palace spokesman said that her health deteriorated further and she was unable to attend.</p><p>Pierce Morgan, a famous British host, said, \"The Queen's real health is more serious than Buckingham Palace said.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0966939f0b964f6675f9ad4c4ba5c855\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Queen Elizabeth II is currently the oldest and oldest monarch in the world.</b></p><p><b>It can be described as \"ultra-long standby\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2aa4e15ed67331b08db897080c2e69\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since succeeding to the throne in 1952, she has consumed 13 American presidents. All the way from Truman to Trump. Witnessed the assassination of Kennedy, the Watergate Incident, the death of Princess Diana, and a series of historical events.</p><p>Almost witnessed the development of the whole new China...</p><p><b>It's a walking antique.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67339ced152b73a21c814b5318297538\" tg-width=\"366\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ada706993caad15eb689654f31f230c\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, the current Queen of England, the head of the Commonwealth and the highest leader of Parliament.</p><p>The full name is \"Elizabeth II, Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and other Territories and Dependencies by the grace of God, Head of the Commonwealth and Defender of the State Church (Anglican Church).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e418c94537d04a028f77d55f708b2066\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>She fell in love with her cousin when she was young.</b>At that time, our queen was only 21 years old, innocent, innocent, young and ignorant. So quietly fell in love.</p><p>But strictly speaking, the Queen's marriage is actually a kinship marriage. Because she and her husband, Prince Philip, are actually great-grandchildren of Queen Victoria, they have been called cousins until they got married.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6559dbe9b2b9cee3568816458dd9d7\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In fact, when Philip was not a prince, our Her Lady Queen had already secretly moved his heart to him.</b>At that time, Prince Philip was still \"Captain Philip Mountbatten\".</p><p><b>Yes, he was the nephew of the famous General Mountbatten, Louis Mountbatten.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b1c738ec21b8e63735fdcab8698cca5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Speaking of which, I simply have to talk about the chaotic blood relationship of European royal families.</p><p>Because European countries are geographically very close and have a long history of intermarriage. Therefore, in the end, just caught any of them and it was the same family decades ago. It's hard not to be related.</p><p>Speaking of which, I have to mention the romantic Edward VIII through the ages. He is simply the most famous model in British history of loving beauty but not loving mountains and rivers.</p><p><b>However, if Edward VIII didn't love beauties back then, it might not be Elizabeth II sitting on the throne now.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a96f31829e14a74ebd964f794b69ac5\" tg-width=\"363\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding this strange love, Madonna once directed a film called \"W.E.\". The English title of the movie is the abbreviation of Mrs. Simpson and Prince Edward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585cbc5c8c4663cde43bb833347b76b8\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Edward VIII and Mrs. Simpson, the \"beauty\" who made him give up his country</p><p>It is said that Edward VIII and George VI are the eldest and second sons of George V respectively.</p><p>Edward succeeded to the throne in early 1936. Before he could be crowned, in December 1936, he signed an abdication declaration because he disobeyed the church and cabinet and insisted on marrying the divorced Mrs. Simpson. As Duke of Windsor, he later said on national radio:</p><p><b>I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.</b></p><p><b>After that, Edwards and his wife spent most of the rest of their lives in France, and didn't return to England until their death.</b></p><p>Of course, there are different opinions on the reasons for Edward VIII's abdication. Some people say that it is because he is biased towards the Nazis, so I won't go into details here.</p><p>It is said that after Edward VIII abdicated, his younger brother Albert, George VI, had naturally returned to China to inherit the throne.</p><p>George VI is the prototype of the stuttering king in The King's Speech. He published a national broadcast encouraging people to resist the Germans in World War II.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f14c516e2d7fbcbbc83ee11a0323a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stills of The King's Speech</p><p>George VI's real name is Albert, which is a German name. Later, during World War II, he changed his name to George in order to establish a clear relationship with Germany.</p><p>George VI was named Albert before because Queen Victoria's husband was called Albert. The husband of Queen Victoria's life is Prince Albert of Gotha, Coburg, Saxony, who was born in Germany.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db119832a2011a15ffe0bc8647463645\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>George VI</p><p>Queen Victoria once demanded that among the monarchs after her, someone must have Albert in his name to remember her love for her husband.</p><p>This unwritten rule was waived after Elizabeth II succeeded to the throne. Elizabeth II is the great granddaughter of Queen Victoria,<b>In other words, Elizabeth called Queen Victoria: Grandma Zu Tai.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, Queen Elizabeth II can be regarded as changing her ancestral precepts.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ec51d5d1521a424b7860cfae36101b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II married in 1947 to Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, and began a 74-year journey of showing love.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734640b192a9381a18ada9df6362120f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/931734d7126c991f07d910b9c9bfcd80\" tg-width=\"468\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, in the two photos, their postures and expressions are almost the same, but the shooting time is half a century apart. Well, you also want to show love for half a century?</p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, have four children, three of whom are sons and one is a daughter, namely the eldest son Charles, the second son Andrew, the youngest son Edward and the daughter Anne.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/224ef879b62e5222674bebaac5232a1b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II is a devout Christian who abides by the law, so she refused to recognize Charles's mistress Camilla for many years.</p><p>However, her son doesn't value promises as much as she does. The gossip between her son Prince Charles and daughter-in-law Princess Diana is world-famous.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f8dd6d0d48c4b494558244ea79f0d1\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Princess Diana, the daughter-in-law who gives the royal family a headache</p><p>Prince Andrew, the Queen's favorite son, is by no means a fuel-efficient lamp. After being deeply involved in the sexual assault scandal, he was deprived of his military rank and royal patron status by the Queen.</p><p>However, it is said that the Queen's grandchildren are still low-key, except Prince Harry, the youngest son of Princess Diana, who is riddled with various scandals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef3f7600a8afa7645a9b64e3f207a644\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prince Harry</p><p>The Queen's birthday is on April 21st, but on April 20th, the Queen visited the Royal Mail Office and received a series of stamps.</p><p>Which stage of the Queen's life does the above legend belong to, please correspond to it yourself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff3e3715fff3a16a4104cc760e47ead\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acea7ea1c709f3da485a4a8953078db\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the 13 American presidents consumed by Elizabeth II, they are:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43db9874d9df2a1d1405ef6373fc93a4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>33 Harry S. Truman Harry S. Truman 1945-1953</p><p>34 Dwight D Eisenhower Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-1961</p><p>35 John F Kennedy John F Kennedy 1961-1963</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a384c4865d841bc4e217c64cd1164f6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>36 Lyndon Johnson Lyndon Johnson 1963-1969</p><p>37 Richard Nixon Richard Nixon 1969-1974</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42e0b0d12e101ad1eb5eb5067e8f0ed8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>38 Gerald Ford Gerald Ford 1974-1977</p><p>39 Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter 1977-1981</p><p>40 Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan 1981-1989</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1b642bba6dc8afece372959f65ff40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>41 George H W Bush George Herbert Walker Bush 1989-1993</p><p>42 Bill Clinton Bill Clinton 1993-2001<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5457af4dfb6b92539779f8c74a24c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>43 George W Bush George Walker Bush 2001-2009</p><p>44 Barack Obama Barack Obama 2009-2017</p><p>And the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump Donald Trump 2017-2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb80971ac82c0002bb4886ec201c4d2\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the tradition in British history, as a crowned monarch, the Queen will not abdicate before her death.</p><p>However, there were actually arrangements and rehearsals about her death a long time ago. This plan is code-named<b>\"London Bridge\"</b>。</p><p>The death of the king of England, unlike other countries, must first set a secret code.</p><p>The predecessor King George VI of England died with the code word \"Hyde Park Corner\". Correspondingly, Queen Elizabeth II's code word was \"London Bridge is down\". This code has existed since the queen ascended the throne, just as ancient emperors built mausoleums in advance.</p><p><b>According to this plan, once the Queen dies, the flags of Britain will be flown at half-mast, and the whole country will enter a 12-day mourning day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e68487f4f3e4d0d8303545cc0ee21a8\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Immediately after the report was received by the British Foreign Office, which was responsible for conveying the news to the Commonwealth countries.</p><p>The media working with the royal family will also receive the news at the first time, but not by telephone or text message, but hanging above the studio<b>A blue light</b>。</p><p>This blue lamp was designed during the Cold War. Its original purpose was to report the Soviet Union's nuclear war as soon as possible, and race against time to let people enter the asylum procedure.</p><p>But in peacetime, once the blue light comes on, it doesn't mean anything else but the death of the queen. TV stations should quickly get ready, stop all entertainment programs and play mourning music.</p><p>The black mourning clothes prepared for the reading of the obituary are also ready in the office.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00f9f2c03753eceb5457b6ebbb2c93e\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Theoretically, the British throne can't have a vacuum period, so once the Queen dies, Prince Charles, the \"longest standby\" in history, will automatically become the new British king as the crown prince.</p><p>However, his official succession to the throne still requires a series of official procedures. He will take a public oath of loyalty in Parliament and the Church of England before St James's Palace officially declares him king.</p><p>After Prince Charles became king, the lyrics of Britain's national anthem \"God Save My Queen\" had to be changed accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22da8ed08c9c815af0d2adafb0a0a18\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>British people are already very familiar with the funeral process of the royal family, and even the Queen herself participated in the preview, pointing out the shortcomings.</p><p>However, she herself is not indifferent.</p><p>A few years ago, the queen, who likes keeping corgis very much, announced that she would no longer keep any pets. Foreign media reported that the Queen of England was slowly saying goodbye to her parents, childhood and memories.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c206b0a1f195ce48824124518e3e43fb\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, the most uncomfortable part of this is the Queen's family.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b185e0dd3b0b2fd630e2a2501ddf5104\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her legendary life has come to an end, and right and wrong can only be left to later generations to comment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1568181200495","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Queen Elizabeth II dies at 96</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQueen Elizabeth II dies at 96\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">央视新闻客户端</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-09 01:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1193358135\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Elizabeth II! The longest standby queen in history who witnessed the rise and fall of Britain</b></a></p><p>On September 8th, local time, Queen Elizabeth II died at Balmoral Castle in Scotland at the age of 96.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30b37cc5e316e5c1e37637eca3323cd\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Earlier that day, Buckingham Palace issued a statement saying that Queen Elizabeth II was under medical supervision because doctors were worried about her health. The statement said that the Queen is in good condition and is under medical supervision at Balmoral Castle in Scotland.</p><p>Then, the Queen's closest family rushed to Balmoral Castle. Since the end of last year, the Queen of England has reduced her public appearances due to her health and other conditions. On the 6th, 96-year-old Queen Elizabeth II accepted Johnson's resignation at Balmoral Castle and officially appointed Truss as the new Prime Minister.</p><p>Elizabeth II was born in London on April 21, 1926. Princess Elizabeth became Queen in 1952 at the age of 25 when her father, King George VI, died. From Sir Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, the Queen saw 15 British prime ministers during her reign. In 2015, she became the longest-reigning British monarch in history, breaking a record set by her great-great-grandmother, Queen Victoria.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa6e93ce943bb2e91bf835f5641a16e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>The official obituary of the royal family</span></p><p>According to the official account of the British royal family, after the death of Elizabeth II, Prince Charles immediately became the new monarch of Britain. The King and Queen will remain in Balmoral tonight and return to London tomorrow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd9972679a6bb7b97091f3604492c912\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b82f18dd18fe6f971fe56092e5b087c\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Elizabeth II was born on April 21, 1926, ascended the throne in 1952 and became Britain's longest-reigning monarch in September 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a97c7554c4f9811c2d53ec6f6eb176\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen looked slightly haggard and unable to move as she met her outgoing defence minister on February 16</p><p>On September 8th, Buckingham Palace said that the Queen's doctors expressed \"concern\" about the Queen's health and advised the Queen to \"continue to be under medical supervision\".</p><p>The Queen of England has been plagued by health problems since October last year. In February this year, Queen Elizabeth II celebrated her 70th anniversary on the throne.</p><p>In the same month, Buckingham Palace announced that Queen Elizabeth II Novel Coronavirus had tested positive and had mild symptoms.</p><p>Earlier, Crown Prince Charles of England and his wife Camilla Novel Coronavirus tested positive.</p><p>After COVID-19 recovered, the Queen did not return to everyone's vision, and it was difficult to stand and walk.</p><p>On March 14th this year, the Queen was unexpectedly absent at the Commonwealth Memorial Day, and the whole of Britain was surprised.</p><p>The queen who \"wants to attend the anniversary at all costs\" is really in poor health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98fe269af81e6b196ea4ee2db5ea0de\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80f44187cbf0d3f78089d883ca06fa2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen has always been tough, and she will never use a wheelchair if she can stand. However, in the last part of her life, the staff installed an elevator and a safety wheelchair in her residence.</p><p>As you still remember, on April 9 last year,<b>Prince Philip, who walked hand in hand with the Queen for 74 years, died,</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d41ea99bf9b4d18885d045d6af44b01\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A minute of silence was observed across the UK, and 30 members of the royal family held a 50-minute funeral for him inside Windsor Castle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817cb15c8788101c3c5394f20be3736a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The queen, dressed in black, sat in the car and wept silently.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8f9794a86bf4e8f4b9f3fff0464544\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>After that, the Queen's health also frequently exposed problems.</b></p><p>One month after Philip's death, the royal family returned to work in an all-round way,</p><p>When the Queen attended the opening ceremony of Parliament, she was suddenly thin. It can be seen that she was in a low mood and lost her former smile and appearance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7bbff6e680751ac6e578566788a1d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In September, the Queen refused emergency knee surgery that made it difficult to walk,</p><p>On October 12, she first appeared on crutches while attending the Royal British Legion Centennial Ceremony,</p><p>The scene caused an uproar and sparked speculation about the Queen's health.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1a766c221106dbf3b5e383617baef5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although there are two pet dogs at home, the queen still looks haggard and has lost her spiritual support.</p><p>On October 20th, Buckingham Palace issued a statement,<b>Said that at the advice of doctors, the Queen canceled her visit to Northern Ireland scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.</b></p><p>The Queen will follow the doctor's advice to rest well in the next few days, although she is reluctant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a1d61c0a8142adc1a80738295f5703\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87fc8b57d6574fb9642d049c8554b62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>That night, however, the Queen went straight to the hospital,</p><p>This is the first time she has been hospitalized in the past eight years, and the last time she suffered from stomach problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d382739be0011a9a7385fa46e70fb5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9c8afcd7359483057de627ffc517cbd\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As soon as this breaking news came out, even the British people who gradually deviated from the royal family were anxious.</p><p>\"Is the Queen alright?\"</p><p>According to the report,<b>The Queen's health issues have nothing to do with Covid.</b></p><p>After a string of health accidents, the Queen's doctor reminded her, \"It's time to stop drinking.\"</p><p>The queen likes to drink, drinking martinis every night for decades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3d5ef8a4270bc76657e20ea04eb947\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce473187a5551cdb7b3d4f38aa86420\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although her health went from bad to worse, the Queen's mental condition was still very good at that time,</p><p>In October, she also refused the title of \"Old Man of the Year\" offered by a magazine.</p><p>Because she thinks she's still young.</p><p>According to the British Associated Press, although she was trapped at home, she still insisted on doing some \"easy official business\".</p><p>On November 14th, the pain struck again-</p><p><b>The Queen was absent from the Memorial Day ceremony because of a sprained back.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072c46829b7b8df7af01648534014275\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f46acebbe50e509ea2a532fa12fa52a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"809\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A Buckingham Palace spokesman said that her health deteriorated further and she was unable to attend.</p><p>Pierce Morgan, a famous British host, said, \"The Queen's real health is more serious than Buckingham Palace said.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0966939f0b964f6675f9ad4c4ba5c855\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Queen Elizabeth II is currently the oldest and oldest monarch in the world.</b></p><p><b>It can be described as \"ultra-long standby\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2aa4e15ed67331b08db897080c2e69\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since succeeding to the throne in 1952, she has consumed 13 American presidents. All the way from Truman to Trump. Witnessed the assassination of Kennedy, the Watergate Incident, the death of Princess Diana, and a series of historical events.</p><p>Almost witnessed the development of the whole new China...</p><p><b>It's a walking antique.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67339ced152b73a21c814b5318297538\" tg-width=\"366\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ada706993caad15eb689654f31f230c\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"99\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, the current Queen of England, the head of the Commonwealth and the highest leader of Parliament.</p><p>The full name is \"Elizabeth II, Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and other Territories and Dependencies by the grace of God, Head of the Commonwealth and Defender of the State Church (Anglican Church).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e418c94537d04a028f77d55f708b2066\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>She fell in love with her cousin when she was young.</b>At that time, our queen was only 21 years old, innocent, innocent, young and ignorant. So quietly fell in love.</p><p>But strictly speaking, the Queen's marriage is actually a kinship marriage. Because she and her husband, Prince Philip, are actually great-grandchildren of Queen Victoria, they have been called cousins until they got married.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6559dbe9b2b9cee3568816458dd9d7\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In fact, when Philip was not a prince, our Her Lady Queen had already secretly moved his heart to him.</b>At that time, Prince Philip was still \"Captain Philip Mountbatten\".</p><p><b>Yes, he was the nephew of the famous General Mountbatten, Louis Mountbatten.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b1c738ec21b8e63735fdcab8698cca5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Speaking of which, I simply have to talk about the chaotic blood relationship of European royal families.</p><p>Because European countries are geographically very close and have a long history of intermarriage. Therefore, in the end, just caught any of them and it was the same family decades ago. It's hard not to be related.</p><p>Speaking of which, I have to mention the romantic Edward VIII through the ages. He is simply the most famous model in British history of loving beauty but not loving mountains and rivers.</p><p><b>However, if Edward VIII didn't love beauties back then, it might not be Elizabeth II sitting on the throne now.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a96f31829e14a74ebd964f794b69ac5\" tg-width=\"363\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding this strange love, Madonna once directed a film called \"W.E.\". The English title of the movie is the abbreviation of Mrs. Simpson and Prince Edward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585cbc5c8c4663cde43bb833347b76b8\" tg-width=\"472\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Edward VIII and Mrs. Simpson, the \"beauty\" who made him give up his country</p><p>It is said that Edward VIII and George VI are the eldest and second sons of George V respectively.</p><p>Edward succeeded to the throne in early 1936. Before he could be crowned, in December 1936, he signed an abdication declaration because he disobeyed the church and cabinet and insisted on marrying the divorced Mrs. Simpson. As Duke of Windsor, he later said on national radio:</p><p><b>I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.</b></p><p><b>After that, Edwards and his wife spent most of the rest of their lives in France, and didn't return to England until their death.</b></p><p>Of course, there are different opinions on the reasons for Edward VIII's abdication. Some people say that it is because he is biased towards the Nazis, so I won't go into details here.</p><p>It is said that after Edward VIII abdicated, his younger brother Albert, George VI, had naturally returned to China to inherit the throne.</p><p>George VI is the prototype of the stuttering king in The King's Speech. He published a national broadcast encouraging people to resist the Germans in World War II.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209f14c516e2d7fbcbbc83ee11a0323a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stills of The King's Speech</p><p>George VI's real name is Albert, which is a German name. Later, during World War II, he changed his name to George in order to establish a clear relationship with Germany.</p><p>George VI was named Albert before because Queen Victoria's husband was called Albert. The husband of Queen Victoria's life is Prince Albert of Gotha, Coburg, Saxony, who was born in Germany.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db119832a2011a15ffe0bc8647463645\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>George VI</p><p>Queen Victoria once demanded that among the monarchs after her, someone must have Albert in his name to remember her love for her husband.</p><p>This unwritten rule was waived after Elizabeth II succeeded to the throne. Elizabeth II is the great granddaughter of Queen Victoria,<b>In other words, Elizabeth called Queen Victoria: Grandma Zu Tai.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, Queen Elizabeth II can be regarded as changing her ancestral precepts.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8ec51d5d1521a424b7860cfae36101b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II married in 1947 to Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, and began a 74-year journey of showing love.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734640b192a9381a18ada9df6362120f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/931734d7126c991f07d910b9c9bfcd80\" tg-width=\"468\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, in the two photos, their postures and expressions are almost the same, but the shooting time is half a century apart. Well, you also want to show love for half a century?</p><p>The Queen and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, have four children, three of whom are sons and one is a daughter, namely the eldest son Charles, the second son Andrew, the youngest son Edward and the daughter Anne.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/224ef879b62e5222674bebaac5232a1b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Queen Elizabeth II is a devout Christian who abides by the law, so she refused to recognize Charles's mistress Camilla for many years.</p><p>However, her son doesn't value promises as much as she does. The gossip between her son Prince Charles and daughter-in-law Princess Diana is world-famous.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f8dd6d0d48c4b494558244ea79f0d1\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Princess Diana, the daughter-in-law who gives the royal family a headache</p><p>Prince Andrew, the Queen's favorite son, is by no means a fuel-efficient lamp. After being deeply involved in the sexual assault scandal, he was deprived of his military rank and royal patron status by the Queen.</p><p>However, it is said that the Queen's grandchildren are still low-key, except Prince Harry, the youngest son of Princess Diana, who is riddled with various scandals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef3f7600a8afa7645a9b64e3f207a644\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Prince Harry</p><p>The Queen's birthday is on April 21st, but on April 20th, the Queen visited the Royal Mail Office and received a series of stamps.</p><p>Which stage of the Queen's life does the above legend belong to, please correspond to it yourself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff3e3715fff3a16a4104cc760e47ead\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acea7ea1c709f3da485a4a8953078db\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"102\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Regarding the 13 American presidents consumed by Elizabeth II, they are:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43db9874d9df2a1d1405ef6373fc93a4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>33 Harry S. Truman Harry S. Truman 1945-1953</p><p>34 Dwight D Eisenhower Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-1961</p><p>35 John F Kennedy John F Kennedy 1961-1963</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a384c4865d841bc4e217c64cd1164f6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>36 Lyndon Johnson Lyndon Johnson 1963-1969</p><p>37 Richard Nixon Richard Nixon 1969-1974</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42e0b0d12e101ad1eb5eb5067e8f0ed8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>38 Gerald Ford Gerald Ford 1974-1977</p><p>39 Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter 1977-1981</p><p>40 Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan 1981-1989</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1b642bba6dc8afece372959f65ff40\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>41 George H W Bush George Herbert Walker Bush 1989-1993</p><p>42 Bill Clinton Bill Clinton 1993-2001<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5457af4dfb6b92539779f8c74a24c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>43 George W Bush George Walker Bush 2001-2009</p><p>44 Barack Obama Barack Obama 2009-2017</p><p>And the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump Donald Trump 2017-2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb80971ac82c0002bb4886ec201c4d2\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the tradition in British history, as a crowned monarch, the Queen will not abdicate before her death.</p><p>However, there were actually arrangements and rehearsals about her death a long time ago. This plan is code-named<b>\"London Bridge\"</b>。</p><p>The death of the king of England, unlike other countries, must first set a secret code.</p><p>The predecessor King George VI of England died with the code word \"Hyde Park Corner\". Correspondingly, Queen Elizabeth II's code word was \"London Bridge is down\". This code has existed since the queen ascended the throne, just as ancient emperors built mausoleums in advance.</p><p><b>According to this plan, once the Queen dies, the flags of Britain will be flown at half-mast, and the whole country will enter a 12-day mourning day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e68487f4f3e4d0d8303545cc0ee21a8\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Immediately after the report was received by the British Foreign Office, which was responsible for conveying the news to the Commonwealth countries.</p><p>The media working with the royal family will also receive the news at the first time, but not by telephone or text message, but hanging above the studio<b>A blue light</b>。</p><p>This blue lamp was designed during the Cold War. Its original purpose was to report the Soviet Union's nuclear war as soon as possible, and race against time to let people enter the asylum procedure.</p><p>But in peacetime, once the blue light comes on, it doesn't mean anything else but the death of the queen. TV stations should quickly get ready, stop all entertainment programs and play mourning music.</p><p>The black mourning clothes prepared for the reading of the obituary are also ready in the office.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f00f9f2c03753eceb5457b6ebbb2c93e\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Theoretically, the British throne can't have a vacuum period, so once the Queen dies, Prince Charles, the \"longest standby\" in history, will automatically become the new British king as the crown prince.</p><p>However, his official succession to the throne still requires a series of official procedures. He will take a public oath of loyalty in Parliament and the Church of England before St James's Palace officially declares him king.</p><p>After Prince Charles became king, the lyrics of Britain's national anthem \"God Save My Queen\" had to be changed accordingly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22da8ed08c9c815af0d2adafb0a0a18\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>British people are already very familiar with the funeral process of the royal family, and even the Queen herself participated in the preview, pointing out the shortcomings.</p><p>However, she herself is not indifferent.</p><p>A few years ago, the queen, who likes keeping corgis very much, announced that she would no longer keep any pets. Foreign media reported that the Queen of England was slowly saying goodbye to her parents, childhood and memories.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c206b0a1f195ce48824124518e3e43fb\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, the most uncomfortable part of this is the Queen's family.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b185e0dd3b0b2fd630e2a2501ddf5104\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Her legendary life has come to an end, and right and wrong can only be left to later generations to comment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=15791184010480910310&share_to=copy_url&t=1662658270158&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=BC45B176-442A-40A4-BED7-5731F250FD9F_684351287200\">央视新闻客户端</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2c32b0f1b76a429c3243349d4088def","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?item_id=15791184010480910310&share_to=copy_url&t=1662658270158&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=BC45B176-442A-40A4-BED7-5731F250FD9F_684351287200","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190604661","content_text":"》》》伊丽莎白二世！见证英国兴衰的史上最长待机女王当地时间9月8日，英国女王伊丽莎白二世在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡去世，享年96岁。当天稍早，英国白金汉宫发表声明表示，由于医生担心其身体健康情况，英国女王伊丽莎白二世处于医疗监护状态。声明称，目前女王情况尚好，并在苏格兰巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受医疗监护。随后，女王最亲密的家人都赶往巴尔莫勒尔城堡。自去年年底以来，由于身体健康等情况，英国女王已减少在公开场合露面。6日，96岁的女王伊丽莎白二世在巴尔莫勒尔城堡接受约翰逊的辞职并正式任命特拉斯为新任首相。伊丽莎白二世于1926年4月21日出生于伦敦。1952年，伊丽莎白公主在25岁时成为女王，当时她的父亲乔治六世国王去世。从温斯顿·丘吉尔爵士到利兹·特拉斯，女王在位期间见证了15位英国首相。2015年，她成为历史上在位时间最长的英国君主，打破了她的曾曾祖母维多利亚女王创下的纪录。皇室的正式讣告英国王室官方账号称，在伊丽莎白二世去世后，查尔斯王子随即成为英国的新君主。国王和王后今晚将留在巴尔莫勒尔，明天返回伦敦。伊丽莎白二世于1926年4月21日出生，于1952年登基，2015年9月成为英国在位时间最长的君主。2月16日，女王会见即将离任的国防部长时略显憔悴，行动不便9月8日，白金汉宫表示，英国女王的医生对女王健康状况表示“担忧”，并建议女王“继续接受医学监护”。自去年10月以来，英国女王一直受到健康问题困扰。今年2月，伊丽莎白二世女王迎来了在位70周年庆典。同月，英国白金汉宫宣布，英国女王伊丽莎白二世新冠病毒检测阳性，症状轻微。此前，英国查尔斯王储及妻子卡米拉新冠病毒检测结果呈阳性。新冠康复后，女王没有回归众人的视野，站立和走路都很困难。今年3月14日的英联邦纪念日活动，女王意外缺席，全英惊讶不已。那个”不惜一切也要参加纪念日“的女王，身体着实不行了。女王一向以硬朗示人，能站着就绝不坐轮椅，但在她生命的最后一段时间，工作人员还是在她住所安置了电梯，外加一部安全轮椅。大家还记得，去年4月9日，和女王携手走完74年的菲利普亲王去世，全英国默哀一分钟，30名王室成员在温莎城堡内为他举办了50分钟的葬礼。女王一袭黑衣，坐在车内默默垂泪。之后，女王的健康也频频曝出问题。菲利普去世1个月后，王室全面复工，女王在出席国会开幕仪式时，整个人暴瘦，可以看出心情低沉，失去了昔日的笑容和神采。9月份，女王拒绝了紧急的膝盖手术，导致行走困难，10月12日，她在出席皇家英国退伍军人协会百年纪念仪式时，首次拄着拐杖出现，这一幕引发轩然大波，引发对女王健康状况的猜测。虽然家里养了两只宠物狗，女王还是面容憔悴，失去了精神支柱。10月20日，白金汉宫发表声明，表示女王在医生的建议下，取消了原定与周三、周四的北爱尔兰之访。女王未来几天将遵医嘱好好休息，虽然她不太情愿。然而当天晚上，女王直接住进了医院，这是她过去八年来，第一次住院，上一次还是患胃病。这份爆炸性新闻一出，连逐渐背离皇室的英国人都急了，“女王没事吧？”报道透露，女王的健康问题与新冠无关。一连串健康事故发生后，女王的医生提醒她，“该戒酒了。”女王喜欢饮酒，每晚都喝马天尼，数十年如一日。虽然身体每况愈下，那时候女王的精神状况还是很好，10月份，她还拒绝了某杂志要赋予她的“年度最佳老人”称号，因为她认为自己还很年轻。根据《英国报联社》的报道，虽然被困在家，她仍坚持办一些“轻松的公务”。11月14日，病痛再次袭来——女王因背部扭伤，缺席当天的国殇纪念日仪式。白金汉宫发言人说，她的健康状况进一步恶化，无法出席。而英国著名主持人皮尔斯摩根则表示，“女王的真实健康状况，比白金汉宫所说的更严重。”女王伊丽莎白二世是目前全世界在位时间最久、年纪最长的君主。可谓“超长待机”。自1952年继位以来，她一共耗走了13位美国总统。从杜鲁门一路经历到特朗普。见证了肯尼迪遇刺，水门事件，王妃戴安娜之死，等一系列历史大事。几乎见证了整个新中国的发展历程……简直就是个会走路的古董。伊丽莎白二世（Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II），即现任英国女王，英联邦元首、国会最高首领。全称是“承上帝洪恩的大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国及其他领土和属地女王，英联邦元首，国教（圣公会）的捍卫者伊丽莎白二世。她在年轻的时候爱上了自己的表哥。那个时候咱们的女王才21岁，天真纯良年少无知。就这样悄悄地陷入了爱情。但严格说起来，女王大人的婚姻实际上算是亲族联姻。因为她和她的丈夫菲利普亲王其实都是维多利亚女王的玄孙，所以他们在结婚以前一直是以表兄妹相称。而实际上，当年早在菲利普还不是亲王的时候，咱们的女王大人就早已经对他芳心暗动。那时候菲利普亲王还是 “菲利普·蒙巴顿上尉”。没错，他就是著名的蒙巴顿将军路易斯·蒙巴顿的外甥。说到这里，简直不得不说一下欧洲皇室混乱的血缘关系。因为在欧洲各国在地理上非常相近，又有长期通婚的历史。因此到了后来，简直随便抓一个出来就是几十年前同一家。想不沾亲带故都难。说到这里就不得不提一下千古浪漫的爱德华八世，他简直是英国史上最著名的爱美人不爱江山的典范。不过话说如果当年爱德华八世爱的不是美人的话，现在坐在王位上的或许就不会是伊丽莎白二世了。关于这段旷世奇恋，麦当娜曾导过一部电影叫“《倾国之恋》（W.E.）”。 电影的英文名就是辛普森夫人与爱德华王子名字首字母的缩写。爱德华八世和让他放弃了江山的“美人”辛普森夫人话说爱德华八世和乔治六世分别是乔治五世（George V）的长子与次子。爱德华于1936年初继位，还没来得及加冕，就在1936年12月因为违抗教会和内阁，执意要娶离异的辛普森夫人为妻而签署了退位声明，并以温莎公爵的身份在之后的全国广播中说到：“I have found it impossible to carry the heavy burden of responsibility and to discharge my duties as king as I would wish to do without the help and support of the woman I love.”此后爱德华夫妻在法国度过了他们余生大部分时光，直至死后才回到英国。当然对于爱德华八世退位的原因众说纷纭，有人说因为他偏向纳粹，这里就不一一细说了。话说在爱德华八世退位以后，他的弟弟艾伯特，就是乔治六世，本来顺理成章地回国继承王位。乔治六世就是《国王的演讲》里面带有口吃的国王的原型。他曾发表全国广播鼓励民众在二战中抵抗德军。《国王的演讲》剧照乔治六世本名叫Albert，这是一个德国名字。后来在二战期间为了与德国划清关系改名为George。乔治六世之前之所以取名为 Albert ，是因为维多利亚女王的丈夫叫 Albert。维多利亚女王的一生挚爱的丈夫是萨克森•科堡•哥达的阿尔伯特王子，出生在德国。乔治六世而维多利亚女王曾经要求，在她之后的历代君主中，必须有人的名字中带有 Albert，一次来缅怀她对自己丈夫的爱。这个不成文的规定在伊丽莎白二世继位后被免除。伊丽莎白二世是维多利亚女王的重重孙女，也就是说，伊丽莎白喊维多利亚女王叫：祖太奶奶。所以伊丽莎白二世女王也算得上是改了祖训。伊丽莎白女王二世于1947年结婚，丈夫是爱丁堡公爵菲利普亲王，从此开始了一段长达74年的秀恩爱旅程。女王和菲利普亲王，两张照片中的两人姿态神情几乎一致，而拍摄时间却差距整整半个世纪。恩，你也想秀恩爱半个世纪？女王和爱丁堡公爵菲利普亲王育有四个孩子，其中三个是儿子，一个是女儿，分别是长子查尔斯、次子安德鲁、小儿子爱德华以及女儿安妮。伊丽莎白二世女王是一位恪守教律的虔诚的基督教徒，因此她对于查尔斯的情妇卡米拉多年以来都不肯承认。然而她的儿子却并不像她一样重视诺言，她的儿子查尔斯王子与儿媳妇戴安娜王妃之间的八卦简直举世闻名。让皇室颇为“头疼”的儿媳戴安娜王妃女王最宠爱的儿子安德鲁王子也绝非省油的灯，深陷性侵丑闻之后被女王剥夺了军衔和王室赞助人身份。不过话说女王的孙子们还算得上低调，除了戴安娜王妃的小儿子哈利王子各种绯闻缠身。哈利王子女王的生日是在4月21日，但是在4月20日的时候，女王走访了英国皇家邮政局，收到了一系列邮票。以上传奇属于女王大人一生的哪个阶段，就请大家自行对应吧。关于被伊丽莎白二世耗走的13位美国总统，他们是：33 Harry S. Truman哈里·S·杜鲁门 1945-195334 Dwight D Eisenhower德怀特·戴维·艾森豪威尔 1953-196135 John F Kennedy约翰·肯尼迪 1961-196336 Lyndon Johnson林登·约翰逊 1963-196937 Richard Nixon理查德·尼克松 1969-197438 Gerald Ford杰拉尔德·福特 1974-197739 Jimmy Carter吉米·卡特 1977-198140 Ronald Reagan罗纳德·里根 1981-198941 George H W Bush乔治·赫伯特·沃克·布什 1989-199342 Bill Clinton比尔·克林顿 1993-200143 George W Bush乔治·沃克·布什 2001-200944 Barack Obama贝拉克·奥巴马 2009-2017以及美国第45任总统，Donald Trump唐纳德·特朗普 2017-2021 。根据英国历史上的传统，作为加冕君主，女王不会生前退位。但是，关于她的身后事其实很久以前就有过安排和预演了，这个方案代号为“伦敦桥”（London Bridge）。英国国王的驾崩，与别国不同，首先要定一个暗号。先代英王乔治六世，去世时的暗号就是“海德公园一角（Hyde Park Corner）”，相应的，伊丽莎白二世的暗号则是“London Bridge is down（伦敦大桥垮下来）”，这个暗号从女王登基后就已存在，正如古代帝王提前修建陵墓一般。根据这个计划，女王一旦去世，英国上下将会降半旗致哀，全国进入12天的哀悼日。紧接着收到报告的是英国外交部，他们负责向英联邦国家传达消息。与王室合作的媒体也会在第一时间收到消息，但不是通过电话或者简讯，而是悬于演播厅上方的一盏蓝灯。这顶蓝灯设计于冷战期间，原本的目的是第一时间报道苏联发动核战争，争分夺秒让民众进入避难程序。但是在和平年代，一旦蓝灯亮起，不意味着别的，意味着女王驾崩，电视台要迅速准备好，停止一切娱乐节目，播放哀悼音乐。为宣读讣闻的准备的黑色丧服也随时准备在办公室。理论上来说，英国的王位不能有真空期，所以一旦女王去世，史上“最长待机”的查尔斯王子作为王储将自动成为新一任英国国王。但是，他正式继位还需要一系列官方程序，他将在议会和英格兰教堂当众宣誓忠诚，圣詹姆斯宫才会正式宣布他为国王。查尔斯王储成为国王后，英国的国歌《上帝佑我女王》的歌词也得发生相应的改变。英国人对王室的葬礼流程已经非常熟悉，甚至英女王本人也参加预演，指出不足之处。但是，她本人也并不是毫不在乎。前几年，十分喜欢养柯基的女王宣布不再饲养任何宠物。外媒报道，英国女王正在和自己的父母、童年、回忆慢慢告别。当然，这其中最难受的还是女王的家人。她传奇的一生已经落幕，是是非非，也只能留给后世评说。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938468703,"gmtCreate":1662650762702,"gmtModify":1676537110544,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP&nbsp;","listText":"RIP&nbsp;","text":"RIP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938468703","repostId":"1193358135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938579449,"gmtCreate":1662643241981,"gmtModify":1676537107973,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938579449","repostId":"2265788073","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265788073","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1662597977,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265788073?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-08 08:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's getting harder and harder to surpass Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265788073","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"昨晚的苹果，更新了自己的 3 条产品线。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>1 hour and 40 minutes of online press conference, last night<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, updated its 3 product lines.</p><p>Apple Watch S8 with more thoughtful health functions, the new and hardcore Apple Watch Ultra.</p><p>After replacing the chip, the noise reduction ability has been greatly improved, and the AirPods Pro (second generation) is less likely to be lost than before.</p><p>There is also a fixed program that can't be beaten every autumn, a new generation of iPhone: the iPhone 14 series.</p><p>This time, the front of the iPhone has changed.</p><p>Apple Watch: After healthy play understands, it's time to start in new markets</p><p>Even if you are a heavy Apple Watch user, it is really difficult to tell the difference between Apple Watch S8 and previous products if you only look at the appearance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a29ac92a6914f00a2552343d57387f9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>But it is no exaggeration to say that Apple Watch S8 should be regarded as the most \"fatal\" hardware update in the Apple Watch product line in recent years.</p><p>Apple has added a new temperature sensor to the Apple Watch S8. The biggest function is to improve the accuracy of women's menstrual tracking function and predict the ovulation day more accurately by monitoring the body temperature during sleep, showing long-term body temperature changes, and reading the body temperature every 5 seconds. The watchOS system will also warn of menstrual disorder or delay by measuring the user's physical signs.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004a85f7e94f4c5ab8c0a662405b7d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This function is equally useful for women who want to prepare for pregnancy and contraception.</p><p>In the past, for most women, menstrual tracking could only be manually marked through some apps, with almost no<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Hardware will pay attention to the field of women's menstruation.</p><p>After all, for many manufacturers, if a temperature sensor is placed on a smart wearable device, the function with a high probability of matching will move towards fever monitoring, a service for COVID-19 prevention.</p><p>In addition to the new temperature sensor, Apple Watch S8 has also upgraded gyroscopes and acceleration sensors. With microphones, barometers, GPS and algorithms adjusted by Apple for more than 1 million hours of real driving and car accident data, Apple Watch can make emergency calls as soon as users have a car accident.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ba219c2dbb4b76b22beb7785b271f0\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The new high G value accelerator, the maximum G value that can be perceived, is 256G.</p><p>What kind of concept is this?</p><p>F1 is the fastest track racing car in the world, and when an accident happens, drivers often suffer from impacts far exceeding daily car accidents. The worst F1 car accident in the last two years, the 2020 Bahrain Grand Prix, suffered by Grosjean, which was 67 G.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c472e036e1a44ab1905ad9f14125084a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In daily life, the maximum G value that ordinary people can bear is only about 3.5 G.</p><p>It is true that most people may not use the safety function of car accident alarm once even if they change the watch, but it is better than nothing to save lives in times of crisis.</p><p>If the Apple Watch S8 and the new entry-level SE are a regular iteration, the Apple Watch Ultra is Apple's first clarion call to enter a new field.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24642e1c3da64d71aa3a053c34b8625a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple Watch Ultra has a larger and brighter screen, a stronger body, more speakers and microphones, and a longer battery life. It even adds a new physical button that can be customized by users and a newly designed strap to cope with different sports scenarios. The straps are all leading to a result: Apple has begun to move into the field of professional sports watches.</p><p>With titanium alloy body, 49mm dial, 2000nit screen brightness, dual GPS, working temperature range of minus 20 to above zero 55 degrees Celsius, and WR100's 100-meter waterproof certification, this is undoubtedly the strongest Apple Watch. Suitable for elite athletes with the highest needs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29220da6d7834205ab18ba7c9f1af8b5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, this doesn't mean that you are not an elite athlete, and the Apple Watch Ultra is not for you.</p><p>If you are familiar enough with traditional Swiss watches, you should know that Rolex Daytona is a racing watch, Water Ghost is a diving watch, and IWC is good at flight timing. In a sense, watches are an identity tag.</p><p>And Apple Watch Ultra, which stands for smart watches, can finally appear in the most harsh natural environment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1b341459a24d189900bf3c0b257280\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"862\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One thing to say, from the birth of Apple Watch to the release of the 8th generation last night, the journey was not smooth sailing. In the first generation, Apple Watch took a detour of becoming a luxury product, but the wrong direction was quickly corrected. Apple began to focus on health monitoring and exercise monitoring, and gradually developed towards the ultimate goal in both directions.</p><p>One is that all ordinary people can monitor as many physical indicators as possible at any time as long as they wear Apple Watch without too many settings, and give early warnings of health problems.</p><p>One is to make the world's top athletes feel that Apple Watch, a consumer-grade smart wearable device that everyone can buy, can fully meet their training needs far beyond ordinary people's imagination.</p><p>From now on, Apple has gone quite steadily on both paths.</p><p>iPhone 14 series: Use the most ingenious way to solve the toughest problems.</p><p>Perhaps the sales of mini models in the first two generations did not meet market expectations. On the iPhone 14 generation model, Apple cut off the mini and took back the previous Plus model.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8878ea2d6c24d5ba58677f242fd2d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"744\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of appearance, the iPhone 14 does not change much compared to the iPhone 13, while the iPhone 14 Plus looks like an enlarged version of the iPhone 14. Even the processors, iPhone 14 and 14 Plus, use the same A15 Bionic chip as the previous generation.</p><p>But if you compare carefully, you will find that compared with the A15 chip used on the iPhone 13, the A15 chip of the iPhone 14/14 Plus has an extra graphics processor. The imaging hardware has also been updated. The rear main camera has a larger aperture and sensor. The new front camera performs better in low-light environments and also supports autofocus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f26cbe5519af43498cf5bd2118ae3a7d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most direct change is that games that require more graphics processing performance will perform better, and the camera and video capabilities of the iPhone 14/14 Plus can also be directly improved.</p><p>The most obvious perception should be the brand-new video motion mode, which greatly reduces the jitter of shooting during motion through processor operation. Even in a sense, for iPhone 14 series users, there is a high probability that the category of mobile phone stabilizers will never be needed again.</p><p>Even if to be honest, the iPhone 14/14 Plus doesn't seem to be updated much, but it is obvious that the iPhone 14 Plus will become the biggest explosion in the mobile phone market from the end of this year to next year, which is definitely enough to make domestic mobile phone manufacturers dissatisfied, but in their hearts Very panic.</p><p>This year's iPhone, the biggest changes are in the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12fb1b8930f848eeaf26b8923ee83e66\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"914\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the front, the notch screen is gone.</p><p>Although the structured light sensor and front camera required by FaceID can't be hidden, Apple still came up with a brilliant idea to hide this \"visual impairment\". So there was the \"Dynamic Island\" design.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3da21f34f6944d9086755ad08c391628\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537482a00e0944cba0e9dddf512f2e6f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a88139234c4ff89f23c4d1e8286e26\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Simply put, \"Dynamic Island\" is a brand-new notification design style. Through the flexible change of the system UI, the unavoidable \"dark spots\" on the screen are hidden as much as possible. In fact, it looks better than most mobile phones that rack their brains to make an under-screen camera or reduce the screen holes as much as possible.</p><p>Because it is the system software design that moves, it does not affect the overall function.</p><p>Moreover, Apple has further upgraded the screen quality of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. The maximum brightness has been directly doubled to 2000 nit. Even if the outdoor sun is dazzling, the screen can be seen clearly. In the early years, it has been applied on Apple Watch. The mature variable refresh rate LTPO screen comes to the iPhone, giving iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max the best \"all-weather display\" experience currently on the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5876a5c19004462ea8be3e82610af896\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is called \"all-weather display\" because the implementation principle is to save power by reducing the screen refresh rate and brightness without affecting the display content, instead of the \"off-screen display\" logic of most Android models, which displays bits and pieces by calling only a few pixels. content to save power.</p><p>In terms of the shooting configuration that the Pro series highlights every year, the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max has also made the biggest upgrade in recent years. The main camera is directly upgraded from 12 million pixels to 48 million pixels. For most photos, the four-in-one pixel sensor will combine every 4 pixels into one large pixel (the unit pixel size is equivalent to 2.44 microns), so that it can be used in low light conditions. Capture high-quality images and keep the photo size at 12 million pixels. When the user chooses the ProRAW format, all 48 million pixels will be output, showing the most picture details.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f44cbe11d7c146b0a545f7130896c91b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the iPhone 13 series, it looks more like the movie effect mode video of the waters testing function. The specifications have also been updated on the 14 Pro/Pro Max, supporting 4K 30 fps and 4K 24 fps video shooting. Closer to real movie parameters.</p><p>The chip installed in the 14 Pro/Pro Max body is also the latest 4nm process A16 chip. According to Apple, the speed brought by the 6-core central processor can be increased by up to 40% and can handle high load tasks with ease. The A16 Bionic chip uses an accelerated 5-core image processor, and the memory bandwidth is increased by up to 50%.</p><p>All in all, the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max, inside and out, is brand new.</p><p>AirPods Pro 2: Without Rivals, Apple Decided to Outdo Itself</p><p>Compared with mobile phones, watches and tablets, Apple's AirPods product line has the lowest update frequency, and the reason is easy to understand: there are indeed no competitors.</p><p>But last night, Apple still released the second generation of AirPods Pro. The appearance has not changed much. It still has a white body and is still like a Pea Shooter's headphone body, but the performance has been greatly improved.</p><p>The new H2 chip makes the noise reduction ability of the second generation AirPods Pro twice that of the previous generation, and the better computing power also significantly improves the sound quality of the second generation AirPods Pro.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91c0d1fdf444e129277c3868204d748\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although the appearance of the headphone body has not changed, the touch pad on the headphone leg now supports sliding volume adjustment. A speaker and U1 chip are added to the headphone shell, which is convenient for users to accurately locate and make sounds when they cannot find the headphone shell.</p><p>Even, Apple has put a rather \"retro\" lanyard hole on the second generation of AirPods Pro, for fear that your headphones are still there and the charging case will run away by itself.</p><p>Apple's lead in the AirPods product line is indeed too large. Most manufacturers can only copy the appearance, but cannot understand the inside.</p><p>The product barriers built by long-termism make it increasingly difficult for Apple to surpass</p><p>If you are a digital enthusiast, you should know very well that Apple's new hardware product launch conference in autumn should be watched together with WWDC in June.</p><p>Apple's software, with Apple's hardware, is highly integrated and correlated.</p><p>After last night's press conference, most online comments praised Apple's interactive style named \"Dynamic Island\" on the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max.</p><p>But Apple's competitors, after watching the press conference, should know best that the interactive style of \"Dynamic Island\" is the best to copy, the most difficult to copy and the most difficult to surpass, which is Apple's long-termism.</p><p>The annual update of Apple Watch is behind Apple's years of investment and data accumulation in the health field.</p><p>Behind the annual iPhone update is Apple's investment in the chip field, body technology field, and display panel field for many years.</p><p>Behind the update of the two generations of AirPods Pro is Apple's investment in the field of computational audio, which has regarded headphones as the entire sound field system for many years.</p><p>Although on the Internet, it seems that some people always say that Apple is dead and has been surpassed by this or that manufacturer, the fact is that Apple still takes most of the profits in the smartphone market every year. In the entire software and hardware ecosystem, this The company is still the best technology company in the world, not even one.</p><p>There is a popular saying in programmer circles talk is cheap, show me the code.</p><p>In the field of consumer digital, the same goes.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's getting harder and harder to surpass Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's getting harder and harder to surpass Apple\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-08 08:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>1 hour and 40 minutes of online press conference, last night<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, updated its 3 product lines.</p><p>Apple Watch S8 with more thoughtful health functions, the new and hardcore Apple Watch Ultra.</p><p>After replacing the chip, the noise reduction ability has been greatly improved, and the AirPods Pro (second generation) is less likely to be lost than before.</p><p>There is also a fixed program that can't be beaten every autumn, a new generation of iPhone: the iPhone 14 series.</p><p>This time, the front of the iPhone has changed.</p><p>Apple Watch: After healthy play understands, it's time to start in new markets</p><p>Even if you are a heavy Apple Watch user, it is really difficult to tell the difference between Apple Watch S8 and previous products if you only look at the appearance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a29ac92a6914f00a2552343d57387f9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>But it is no exaggeration to say that Apple Watch S8 should be regarded as the most \"fatal\" hardware update in the Apple Watch product line in recent years.</p><p>Apple has added a new temperature sensor to the Apple Watch S8. The biggest function is to improve the accuracy of women's menstrual tracking function and predict the ovulation day more accurately by monitoring the body temperature during sleep, showing long-term body temperature changes, and reading the body temperature every 5 seconds. The watchOS system will also warn of menstrual disorder or delay by measuring the user's physical signs.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004a85f7e94f4c5ab8c0a662405b7d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>This function is equally useful for women who want to prepare for pregnancy and contraception.</p><p>In the past, for most women, menstrual tracking could only be manually marked through some apps, with almost no<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Hardware will pay attention to the field of women's menstruation.</p><p>After all, for many manufacturers, if a temperature sensor is placed on a smart wearable device, the function with a high probability of matching will move towards fever monitoring, a service for COVID-19 prevention.</p><p>In addition to the new temperature sensor, Apple Watch S8 has also upgraded gyroscopes and acceleration sensors. With microphones, barometers, GPS and algorithms adjusted by Apple for more than 1 million hours of real driving and car accident data, Apple Watch can make emergency calls as soon as users have a car accident.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ba219c2dbb4b76b22beb7785b271f0\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The new high G value accelerator, the maximum G value that can be perceived, is 256G.</p><p>What kind of concept is this?</p><p>F1 is the fastest track racing car in the world, and when an accident happens, drivers often suffer from impacts far exceeding daily car accidents. The worst F1 car accident in the last two years, the 2020 Bahrain Grand Prix, suffered by Grosjean, which was 67 G.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c472e036e1a44ab1905ad9f14125084a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In daily life, the maximum G value that ordinary people can bear is only about 3.5 G.</p><p>It is true that most people may not use the safety function of car accident alarm once even if they change the watch, but it is better than nothing to save lives in times of crisis.</p><p>If the Apple Watch S8 and the new entry-level SE are a regular iteration, the Apple Watch Ultra is Apple's first clarion call to enter a new field.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24642e1c3da64d71aa3a053c34b8625a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple Watch Ultra has a larger and brighter screen, a stronger body, more speakers and microphones, and a longer battery life. It even adds a new physical button that can be customized by users and a newly designed strap to cope with different sports scenarios. The straps are all leading to a result: Apple has begun to move into the field of professional sports watches.</p><p>With titanium alloy body, 49mm dial, 2000nit screen brightness, dual GPS, working temperature range of minus 20 to above zero 55 degrees Celsius, and WR100's 100-meter waterproof certification, this is undoubtedly the strongest Apple Watch. Suitable for elite athletes with the highest needs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29220da6d7834205ab18ba7c9f1af8b5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, this doesn't mean that you are not an elite athlete, and the Apple Watch Ultra is not for you.</p><p>If you are familiar enough with traditional Swiss watches, you should know that Rolex Daytona is a racing watch, Water Ghost is a diving watch, and IWC is good at flight timing. In a sense, watches are an identity tag.</p><p>And Apple Watch Ultra, which stands for smart watches, can finally appear in the most harsh natural environment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1b341459a24d189900bf3c0b257280\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"862\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One thing to say, from the birth of Apple Watch to the release of the 8th generation last night, the journey was not smooth sailing. In the first generation, Apple Watch took a detour of becoming a luxury product, but the wrong direction was quickly corrected. Apple began to focus on health monitoring and exercise monitoring, and gradually developed towards the ultimate goal in both directions.</p><p>One is that all ordinary people can monitor as many physical indicators as possible at any time as long as they wear Apple Watch without too many settings, and give early warnings of health problems.</p><p>One is to make the world's top athletes feel that Apple Watch, a consumer-grade smart wearable device that everyone can buy, can fully meet their training needs far beyond ordinary people's imagination.</p><p>From now on, Apple has gone quite steadily on both paths.</p><p>iPhone 14 series: Use the most ingenious way to solve the toughest problems.</p><p>Perhaps the sales of mini models in the first two generations did not meet market expectations. On the iPhone 14 generation model, Apple cut off the mini and took back the previous Plus model.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8878ea2d6c24d5ba58677f242fd2d02\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"744\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of appearance, the iPhone 14 does not change much compared to the iPhone 13, while the iPhone 14 Plus looks like an enlarged version of the iPhone 14. Even the processors, iPhone 14 and 14 Plus, use the same A15 Bionic chip as the previous generation.</p><p>But if you compare carefully, you will find that compared with the A15 chip used on the iPhone 13, the A15 chip of the iPhone 14/14 Plus has an extra graphics processor. The imaging hardware has also been updated. The rear main camera has a larger aperture and sensor. The new front camera performs better in low-light environments and also supports autofocus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f26cbe5519af43498cf5bd2118ae3a7d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The most direct change is that games that require more graphics processing performance will perform better, and the camera and video capabilities of the iPhone 14/14 Plus can also be directly improved.</p><p>The most obvious perception should be the brand-new video motion mode, which greatly reduces the jitter of shooting during motion through processor operation. Even in a sense, for iPhone 14 series users, there is a high probability that the category of mobile phone stabilizers will never be needed again.</p><p>Even if to be honest, the iPhone 14/14 Plus doesn't seem to be updated much, but it is obvious that the iPhone 14 Plus will become the biggest explosion in the mobile phone market from the end of this year to next year, which is definitely enough to make domestic mobile phone manufacturers dissatisfied, but in their hearts Very panic.</p><p>This year's iPhone, the biggest changes are in the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12fb1b8930f848eeaf26b8923ee83e66\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"914\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the front, the notch screen is gone.</p><p>Although the structured light sensor and front camera required by FaceID can't be hidden, Apple still came up with a brilliant idea to hide this \"visual impairment\". So there was the \"Dynamic Island\" design.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3da21f34f6944d9086755ad08c391628\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537482a00e0944cba0e9dddf512f2e6f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a88139234c4ff89f23c4d1e8286e26\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Simply put, \"Dynamic Island\" is a brand-new notification design style. Through the flexible change of the system UI, the unavoidable \"dark spots\" on the screen are hidden as much as possible. In fact, it looks better than most mobile phones that rack their brains to make an under-screen camera or reduce the screen holes as much as possible.</p><p>Because it is the system software design that moves, it does not affect the overall function.</p><p>Moreover, Apple has further upgraded the screen quality of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. The maximum brightness has been directly doubled to 2000 nit. Even if the outdoor sun is dazzling, the screen can be seen clearly. In the early years, it has been applied on Apple Watch. The mature variable refresh rate LTPO screen comes to the iPhone, giving iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max the best \"all-weather display\" experience currently on the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5876a5c19004462ea8be3e82610af896\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is called \"all-weather display\" because the implementation principle is to save power by reducing the screen refresh rate and brightness without affecting the display content, instead of the \"off-screen display\" logic of most Android models, which displays bits and pieces by calling only a few pixels. content to save power.</p><p>In terms of the shooting configuration that the Pro series highlights every year, the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max has also made the biggest upgrade in recent years. The main camera is directly upgraded from 12 million pixels to 48 million pixels. For most photos, the four-in-one pixel sensor will combine every 4 pixels into one large pixel (the unit pixel size is equivalent to 2.44 microns), so that it can be used in low light conditions. Capture high-quality images and keep the photo size at 12 million pixels. When the user chooses the ProRAW format, all 48 million pixels will be output, showing the most picture details.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f44cbe11d7c146b0a545f7130896c91b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the iPhone 13 series, it looks more like the movie effect mode video of the waters testing function. The specifications have also been updated on the 14 Pro/Pro Max, supporting 4K 30 fps and 4K 24 fps video shooting. Closer to real movie parameters.</p><p>The chip installed in the 14 Pro/Pro Max body is also the latest 4nm process A16 chip. According to Apple, the speed brought by the 6-core central processor can be increased by up to 40% and can handle high load tasks with ease. The A16 Bionic chip uses an accelerated 5-core image processor, and the memory bandwidth is increased by up to 50%.</p><p>All in all, the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max, inside and out, is brand new.</p><p>AirPods Pro 2: Without Rivals, Apple Decided to Outdo Itself</p><p>Compared with mobile phones, watches and tablets, Apple's AirPods product line has the lowest update frequency, and the reason is easy to understand: there are indeed no competitors.</p><p>But last night, Apple still released the second generation of AirPods Pro. The appearance has not changed much. It still has a white body and is still like a Pea Shooter's headphone body, but the performance has been greatly improved.</p><p>The new H2 chip makes the noise reduction ability of the second generation AirPods Pro twice that of the previous generation, and the better computing power also significantly improves the sound quality of the second generation AirPods Pro.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91c0d1fdf444e129277c3868204d748\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Although the appearance of the headphone body has not changed, the touch pad on the headphone leg now supports sliding volume adjustment. A speaker and U1 chip are added to the headphone shell, which is convenient for users to accurately locate and make sounds when they cannot find the headphone shell.</p><p>Even, Apple has put a rather \"retro\" lanyard hole on the second generation of AirPods Pro, for fear that your headphones are still there and the charging case will run away by itself.</p><p>Apple's lead in the AirPods product line is indeed too large. Most manufacturers can only copy the appearance, but cannot understand the inside.</p><p>The product barriers built by long-termism make it increasingly difficult for Apple to surpass</p><p>If you are a digital enthusiast, you should know very well that Apple's new hardware product launch conference in autumn should be watched together with WWDC in June.</p><p>Apple's software, with Apple's hardware, is highly integrated and correlated.</p><p>After last night's press conference, most online comments praised Apple's interactive style named \"Dynamic Island\" on the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max.</p><p>But Apple's competitors, after watching the press conference, should know best that the interactive style of \"Dynamic Island\" is the best to copy, the most difficult to copy and the most difficult to surpass, which is Apple's long-termism.</p><p>The annual update of Apple Watch is behind Apple's years of investment and data accumulation in the health field.</p><p>Behind the annual iPhone update is Apple's investment in the chip field, body technology field, and display panel field for many years.</p><p>Behind the update of the two generations of AirPods Pro is Apple's investment in the field of computational audio, which has regarded headphones as the entire sound field system for many years.</p><p>Although on the Internet, it seems that some people always say that Apple is dead and has been surpassed by this or that manufacturer, the fact is that Apple still takes most of the profits in the smartphone market every year. In the entire software and hardware ecosystem, this The company is still the best technology company in the world, not even one.</p><p>There is a popular saying in programmer circles talk is cheap, show me the code.</p><p>In the field of consumer digital, the same goes.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9d895eb03544e594a68e0de37afd8d","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265788073","content_text":"1 小时 40 分钟的线上发布会，昨晚的苹果，更新了自己的 3 条产品线。健康功能更贴心的 Apple Watch S8，全新且硬核的 Apple Watch Ultra。更换芯片后大幅提升降噪能力，比之前更不容易丢的 AirPods Pro（第二代）。还有就是每年秋季铁打不动的固定节目，全新一代 iPhone：iPhone 14 系列。这一次，iPhone 的正面变了。Apple Watch：健康玩儿明白后，该对新市场下手了即便你是个重度 Apple Watch 用户，如果只看外观，确实也很难分辨出 Apple Watch S8 和之前产品的区别。但毫不夸张，Apple Watch S8，应该算是近几年 Apple Watch 这条产品线中，硬件更新幅度最“要命”的一次。苹果在 Apple Watch S8 上，新增了温度传感器。最大的作用，是通过跟测睡眠时候的体温，呈现长期的体温变化情况，每 5 秒读取一次体温，来提升女性经期跟踪功能的准确性，更精准预测排卵日。watchOS 系统还会通过对于用户体征的测量，来预警经期的紊乱或推迟。这个功能，对于想备孕和想避孕的女性，同样有用。而在过去，对于大部分女性，经期跟踪，往往只能通过一些 app 来进行手动标注，几乎没有任何智能硬件会关注到女性经期这一领域。毕竟对于很多厂商，如果在智能穿戴设备上放一个温度传感器，大概率匹配的功能，会走向发烧监测这一服务新冠预防的环节。除了新增的温度传感器，Apple Watch S8 还升级了陀螺仪和加速度感应器，配合麦克风，气压计，GPS 和苹果号称超过 100 万小时真实驾驶和车祸数据调校出来的算法，Apple Watch 可以在用户发生车祸的第一时间进行紧急呼叫。全新的高 G 值加速器，可以感知的最大 G 值，是 256G。这是个什么概念？F1 是世界上最快的场地赛车，发生事故时车手往往会承受远超日常车祸的撞击力度。最近两年最严重的 F1 车祸，2020 年巴林站大奖赛，格罗斯让所承受的撞击，是 67 个 G。而在日常生活中，普通人能承受的最大 G 值，大概只有 3.5G。车祸报警的安全功能确实对大部分人来说，可能知道换了表，都不会用一次，但在危机时刻有可能救命的功能，有总比没有好。如果说 Apple Watch S8 和全新的入门款 SE 是一次常规迭代，Apple Watch Ultra 则是苹果对一个新领域发起进军的第一声号角。Apple Watch Ultra 屏幕更大，更亮，机身也更坚固，扬声器和麦克风都更多，电池续航也更长，甚至还新增了一个可供用户自定义的实体按键以及全新设计的应对不同运动场景的表带，都在导向一个结果：苹果开始对专业运动手表领域下手了。钛合金表身，49mm 表盘，2000nit屏幕亮度，双 GPS，零下 20 到零上 55 摄氏度的工作温度区间，WR100 的 100 米防水认证，毫无疑问，这是最强的 Apple Watch。适合需求最高的精英运动员。当然，这也并不意味着你不是精英运动员，Apple Watch Ultra 就不适合你。如果你对瑞士传统手表足够熟悉，就应该了解，劳力士戴通拿是赛车表，水鬼是潜水表，IWC 万国擅长做飞行计时，某种意义上，手表是一种身份标签。而 Apple Watch Ultra，代表智能手表，终于也可以出现在最严苛的自然环境中。有一说一，Apple Watch 从诞生到昨晚发布第 8 代，一路走来并不是一帆风顺，在第一代时，Apple Watch 走了想成为奢侈品的弯路，但错误的指向很快被矫正，苹果开始在健康监控和运动监控两个领域重点发力，并且逐渐在往两个方向的最终目标不断发展。一个是能让所有普通人只要戴上 Apple Watch，无需过多设置，就能随时监控自己尽可能多身体指标，对健康问题提前做出预警。一个是让世界上最顶级的运动员，也能觉得，Apple Watch 这样一款所有人都能买到的消费级智能穿戴设备，完全能满足自己远超常人想象的训练需求。从现在来看，这两条路，苹果都走得相当稳健。iPhone 14 系列：用最巧妙的方式，解决最棘手的问题。也许是 mini 机型在前两代的销售情况并没有达到市场预期。在 iPhone 14 这一代机型上，苹果砍掉了 mini，把之前 Plus 的型号拿了回来。在外观上，iPhone 14 对比 iPhone 13，确实没有太多改变，而 iPhone 14 Plus，则看上去像是放大版的 iPhone 14。甚至是处理器，iPhone 14 和 14 Plus，也用了和上代一样的 A15 仿生芯片。但如果仔细对比，就会发现，对比 iPhone 13 上使用的 A15 芯片，iPhone 14/14 Plus 的 A15 芯片多了一颗图形处理器。影像硬件也进行了更新，后置的主摄光圈和传感器都更大，全新的前置摄像头低光环境表现更好，也支持自动对焦。最直接的改变，就是需要更多图形处理性能的游戏会表现更好，iPhone 14/14 Plus 的拍照和视频能力也能得到直接提升。感知最明显的，应该是全新的视频运动模式，通过处理器运算，大幅降低运动时拍摄的抖动。甚至某种意义上，对于 iPhone 14 系列用户，手机稳定器这个品类，大概率是再也不需要了。即便实话实说，iPhone 14/14 Plus 看上去更新幅度不大，但很明显，iPhone 14 Plus 会成为今年年底到明年手机市场的最大爆款，绝对足以让国内各家手机厂商嘴上不服，但心里很慌。今年的 iPhone，最大的变化在 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 两款机型身上。正面，刘海屏没了。虽然因为 FaceID 所需要的结构光传感器和前置摄像头无法隐藏，但苹果还是想出了一个绝妙的主意来把这块儿“视觉障碍”给藏起来。于是就有了“灵动岛”设计。简单来说，“灵动岛”是一套全新的通知设计风格，通过系统 UI 的灵活改变，尽可能隐藏住屏幕上不可回避的“黑斑”，实际看上去，也比大部分绞尽脑汁想要做屏下摄像头或者是尽可能缩小屏幕打孔的手机高明很多。因为动的是系统软件设计，并没有影响整体功能。而且，苹果还对 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 的屏幕素质做了进一步升级，最高亮度直接翻倍，提升到 2000 nit，即便室外阳光耀眼也能看清屏幕，早年间在 Apple Watch 上已经应用成熟的可变刷新率 LTPO 屏幕，来到 iPhone 上，就给了 iPhone 14 Pro 和 iPhone 14 Pro Max 目前市面上最好的“全天候显示”体验。叫“全天候显示”，是因为实现原理是通过降低屏幕刷新率和亮度来省电，不影响显示内容，而非大部分 Android 机型的“熄屏显示”逻辑，通过只调用少数像素点显示零碎内容来省电。在每年 Pro 系列都会突出的拍摄配置上，iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max 也做了近些年的最大升级。主摄从 1200 万像素直接升级到 4800 万像素，对于大多数照片，四合一像素传感器会将每 4 个像素合并为一个大像素（单位像素尺寸相当于 2.44 微米），从而可在低光条件下拍摄到优质的影像，将照片大小保持在 1200 万像素。而当用户选择 ProRAW 格式，4800 万像素会尽数输出，呈现出最多的画面细节。在 iPhone 13 系列上看上去更像试水功能的电影效果模式视频，也在 14 Pro/Pro Max 上更新了规格，支持 4K 30 fps 和 4K 24 fps 视频拍摄。更贴近真实的电影参数。在  14 Pro/Pro Max 机身中搭载的芯片，也是最新的 4nm 制程 A16 芯片，按照苹果的说法，6 核中央处理器带来的速度提升至高可达 40%，并可举重若轻地处理高负载任务。A16 仿生芯片采用经加速的 5 核图像处理器，内存带宽提升多达 50%。总而言之，iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max，从里到外，都是全新的。AirPods Pro 2：没有竞争对手，苹果就决定超越自己相比于手机，手表和平板，苹果 AirPods 产品线的更新频率最低，原因也很好理解：确实没有竞争对手。但昨晚，苹果还是发布了 AirPods Pro 的第二代，外观没太多改变，还是白色的机身，还是像豌豆射手的耳机本体，但性能做了大幅提升。全新的 H2 芯片，让第二代的 AirPods Pro 降噪能力是上一代的两倍，更好的计算能力也让 AirPods Pro 第二代的音质有了明显提升。虽然耳机本体的外观没变，但耳机腿上的触控板，现在支持滑动调节音量，耳机壳上还加了扬声器和 U1 芯片，方便用户找不到耳机壳时，精准定位，并发出声音。甚至，苹果还在 AirPods Pro 二代上放上了相当“复古”的挂绳孔，生怕你耳机还在，充电壳自己跑了。苹果在 AirPods 这条产品线上的领先幅度确实太大，大多数厂商，也只能抄个外观，没法抄明白内在。长期主义构建起的产品壁垒，让苹果越来越难被超越如果你是个数码爱好者，你应该非常清楚，每年苹果秋季的硬件新品发布会，应该搭配着 6 月份 WWDC 一起看。苹果的软件，与苹果的硬件，融合度极高，关联性极强。昨晚的发布会后，大部分网络评论都在赞美苹果在 iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max 上命名为“灵动岛”的交互风格。但苹果的竞争对手们，看完发布会，应该最清楚，“灵动岛”的交互风格是最好抄的，最难抄也是最难超的，是苹果的长期主义。每年 Apple Watch 的更新，背后是苹果多年在健康领域的投入与数据积累。每年 iPhone 的更新，背后是苹果多年在芯片领域，机身工艺领域，显示面板领域的投入。两代 AirPods Pro 的更新，背后是苹果多年把耳机当作整个声场系统，在计算音频领域的投入。尽管在网络上，似乎总有人说苹果不行了，被这个那个厂商超越了，但事实情况是，每年的智能手机市场，苹果依然拿走了大部分利润，在整个软硬件生态上，这家公司依然是世界上最好的科技公司，甚至没有之一。程序员圈子里流行一句话：talk is cheap，show me the code。在消费数码领域，同理。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992387352,"gmtCreate":1661264218878,"gmtModify":1676536485108,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992387352","repostId":"2261050143","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990799233,"gmtCreate":1660408478725,"gmtModify":1676533466098,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points&nbsp;","listText":"Good points&nbsp;","text":"Good points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990799233","repostId":"1119283353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909842462,"gmtCreate":1658853528156,"gmtModify":1676536217858,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909842462","repostId":"1198339027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198339027","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658848376,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198339027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent \"black swans\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198339027","media":"人神共奋","summary":"不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Unpredictable, but copable<b>A small probability event with a high probability?</b></p><p>Every time an investment article writes about \"black swan\", someone always asks, \"Don't be useless, just talk about what black swan events may have occurred in the past two years.\"</p><p>I always regret to tell him: \"<b>The biggest feature of black swan events is unforeseeability</b>, are events that most people didn't expect, events that everyone is worried about, but they are unlikely to become black swan events. \"</p><p>Some people are still unconvinced: \"I understand this. I don't want you to tell you which events are more likely to become black swans as soon as you say it accurately.\"</p><p>Yeah? Small probability events with \"high probability\"? I'm sorry, I'm leaving!</p><p>Since it is unpredictable, what is the significance of discussing the black swan event?</p><p>Taleb, the author of Black Swan, divides black swan events into two types: the first is the black swan phenomenon that people talk about, and the second is the black swan event that no one knows.</p><p><b>As a \"small probability event\", the black swan event itself cannot be predicted or even avoided (i.e. the second type); However, as a \"common phenomenon\" with a high probability (that is, the first one), it can be dealt with and even used for profit.</b></p><p>This is Black Swan Thinking, the 14th article in the series of \"99 Thinking Models\". Let's talk about \"Black Swan Thinking\".</p><p><b>We don't know \"what we don't know\"</b></p><p>The unpredictability of black swans will cause a major cognitive obstacle-<b>We cannot understand its laws from past experience like other knowledge</b>, reflected in three aspects:</p><p><b>First, the black swan event is a small probability event and an event that is easily overlooked by people</b></p><p>This point, as analyzed earlier, people's first impression of small probability random events is: Why should I waste precious energy and resources just for this unlikely thing?</p><p>However, there are many small probability events in life, and not every event has a significant impact. Is this always a rule?</p><p>Unfortunately, there are rules, but they are not credible, which is the second reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Second, past experience is unreliable</b></p><p>Before there is a rear-end collision, you always think that the distance between yourself and the car in front is appropriate enough for you to react, and your basis is precisely that-this distance has never made me rear-end.</p><p><b>The unreliability of experience stems from the unreliability of \"induction\" itself</b>, all our experience, may be \"what the turkey thinks of the farmer before Thanksgiving\", which in turn constitutes the third reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Third, what you don't know is often the most important thing</b></p><p>Suppose a legislator, through relentless efforts, passed a law requiring airlines to install bulletproof doors to pilot cockpits and lock them from the inside (a requirement after 9/11) before September 2001?</p><p>Naturally, then there would be no \"911\". But here's the question. If \"911\" never happened, who would admit the \"contribution\" of this legislator? What is more likely is that airlines increase costs and are hated by employees.</p><p>Summarizing the reasons why \"black swans\" are unavoidable, the author said: \"<b>What we don't know is more important than what we know, which is the real reason why the black swan event appears</b>”。</p><p><b>Small probability events, unreliable experience, and things we don't know</b>, these are the three characteristics of the \"Black Swan\" incident.</p><p>Of course, people always want to take the initiative to control the situation. In the financial field, because the system is too complicated and important, the government has designed many mechanisms to prevent the occurrence of \"black swan\" incidents.</p><p>Take the financial crisis in 2008 as an example. To some extent, the financial crisis in 2008 was not a \"black swan event\". It lasted for a year, and it was a crisis that the whole market was worried about and all parties were fully mobilized, but watched it happen.</p><p>In fact, this makes it better reflect the three characteristics of the \"black swan\" event: \"small probability event, unreliable experience and things we don't know\".</p><p><b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely resolved</b></p><p>In the years before the subprime mortgage crisis, many people issued warnings of abnormal mortgage data in advance, and many smart investors began to trade the crisis in advance (you can read the article \"Only two days are happy in the life of a successful person\"), the most typical of which is the explosion in the circulation of CDS based on various CDOs (for details, see \"Can We Avoid the Next\" Subprime Mortgage Crisis \"?\" Article).</p><p>CDS is equivalent to financial institutions \"buying insurance\" for their subordinated debt. They feel bad in their hearts, but they subjectively feel that the problem is controllable.<b>This seemingly cautious and actually optimistic mood hits the \"unreliable past experience\" characteristic of the black swan event.</b></p><p>A series of events that happened later also seemed to \"verify\" people's experience. The prelude to the subprime mortgage crisis kicked off in April, 2007. New Century Financial Corporation, the second largest subprime mortgage scale, filed for bankruptcy protection, and it was also the first financial institution to fail in the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>At that time, the mortgage crisis was already obvious, and the mortgage default rate exceeded a record 1 million units. However, the stock market only fell slightly to \"show respect\" and continued to hit new highs without looking back.</p><p><b>The truly unpredictable black swan factor in the financial crisis is the government's \"response\" to the crisis-investors all assume that someone is solving the problem, so they think that there is a high probability that it will not trigger a crisis.</b></p><p>In early July, 2007, bond rating agencies felt that \"paper couldn't hold the fire\" and began to downgrade the risk rating of subordinated debt. The market still only fell for one day.</p><p>It was not until late July that the fund products related to subprime loans began to explode that the market realized that the crisis had \"infected\" a large number of financial products from subprime debt, and realized that this was the most serious crisis since 9/11. The market finally had a decent \"plunge\" of more than 10%.</p><p>But the decline stopped in mid-August because the government finally made a move: the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, release liquidity, and inject capital into more financial institutions; The Bush administration provided loan guarantees to borrowers hit by the subprime mortgage crisis; Congress is also considering a new plan to temporarily suspend the tax burden caused by mortgage default on home borrowers; The Treasury Department has set up a $100 billion fund to buy troubled mortgage securities...</p><p>When everyone saw it, all parties took action and policies were released. The economic situation itself was very good, but it was just a credit crisis in some areas. Even if this crisis passed, the stock market not only recovered its lost ground, but also reached a new high in October.</p><p>In fact, from October 2007 to July 2008, on the one hand, the sales of the property market continued to deteriorate, and the subordinated debt and default rate involved rose sharply. The crisis continued to deteriorate in the whole financial system, and subordinated debt-related products exploded one after another, and almost all financial institutions suffered huge losses; But on the other hand, these problems are overshadowed by the escalating capital injection plan of the Federal Reserve and the government's increased economic stimulus package.</p><p>In the contest between the crisis and the response to the crisis, most people still believe in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the government's toolbox, so although the market is slowly declining, it is still supported at a relatively high position.</p><p>Before the real plunge, there were two waves of crises in the market, one was the crisis of Bear Stearns, and the other was the crisis of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Finally, acquisitions and government takeovers pressed the \"pause button\" on the crisis.</p><p>These two actions of \"the magic is one foot high, the road is one foot high\" have given the market an illusion. Now the government's \"financial toolbox\" is very big, and a big financial crisis will not happen. This makes others, including the Federal Reserve and the government, also \"reflect\", are they \"too cautious\" or too wide? People are also complaining that policies waste taxpayers' money.</p><p><b>This \"illusion\" and \"reflection\" just verifies what Taleb said in his book that \"what we don't know is more important than what we know\". As a result, when facing the next object in need of help \"Lehman Brothers\", the Federal Reserve chose another path-let it go bankrupt.</b></p><p>After lurking for nearly a year, this \"black swan\" finally found an opportunity to show its true colors. Before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the market only fell by 15% in one year, and then plummeted by 40% in the next two months. The subprime mortgage crisis immediately turned into a global financial crisis, and the credit of the whole society froze, which spread to the real economy. The unemployment rate hit the highest level since the end of World War II.</p><p>Everyone knows that the best way to deal with this kind of financial crisis is to inject liquidity far beyond the crisis level on a large scale and nip it in the bud. But,<b>If the stock market doesn't \"die for you\", how can Congress pass the 700 billion bailout plan so quickly? How can Wall Street banks accept government capital injections?</b></p><p><b>Everyone knows that the Black Swan event is costly, but everyone questions the necessary sacrifices in advance</b>, take this year's Federal Reserve rate hike as an example. Everyone knows that rate hike was the best way when inflation first started, but if inflation was really beaten down once or twice, most people will begin to question again, how can there be inflation? The Fed is scaring people again.</p><p>This is the fourth feature of the financial \"black swan\" event:<b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely solved.</b></p><p>Therefore, the specific \"black swan event\" itself cannot be predicted and avoided, but there are some basic ways to deal with the \"black swan phenomenon\".</p><p><b>Three ways to deal with a black swan</b></p><p>There are three different attitudes to dealing with black swan events:</p><p><b>The first is Buffett's \"passive exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>The best reflection of Buffett's response to the \"black swan incident\" is his letter to shareholders in 1994:</p><p>\"We will continue to ignore political forecasts and economic forecasts, which are costly pastimes for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one predicted the widespread spread of the Vietnam War, wage and price control, two oil crises, the resignation of the president, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Dow plummeting 508 points in one day, or the yield of short-term government bonds (Treasury Bill) fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. Surprisingly, however, these once sensational major events never made Ben Graham's investment principles flaw in the slightest, nor made any mistakes in buying excellent companies at reasonable prices. Imagine how much it will cost us if we delay or change our allocation and use of funds because of these inexplicable fears. In fact, we usually take advantage of the moment when some major macro event leads to the peak of market pessimism to find the best buying opportunities. \" It seems that Buffett's attitude towards the crisis is the simplest, that is, not to predict the crisis. Once it occurs, he must seize this opportunity and buy a good company.</p><p>This approach seems to be the easiest for ordinary people to learn, but in fact it is not the case. Buffett's main successful investment in the later period made him make a lot of money<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, none of them were bought during the Black Swan incident. On the contrary, they were considered too expensive when they were bought. And his sale in aviation stocks at the \"bottom of the epidemic\" in 2020 was actually based on the experience of the short-term impact of the 9/11 incident on aviation stocks, which was later denied by himself.</p><p><b>Buffett can ignore the \"black swan\", but it is also difficult to take advantage of it, because the impact on stock prices caused by crisis events seems large, but for long-term investments lasting for more than ten years, the impact on final returns is minimal.</b></p><p><b>The second is Taleb's \"active exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>Taleb's attitude is completely opposite to Buffett's.<b>A black swan event is a risk for most people, but if you are on the side of most people's counterparties, it is a \"winning lottery ticket\".</b></p><p>Taleb has many trades based on the black swan theory. He once bought \"$5 sell\" at extremely low prices<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Put options \", when General Motors' stock price was still above $30. For example, when you were in Maotai for 2,000 yuan, you bet with others that Maotai would fall to 300 yuan. It seems like a very stupid transaction, so he can buy it for almost nothing. But by the time of 9/11 incident, these put options didn't look so outrageous, and the price naturally went up. Empirica, the hedge fund he manages, has many similar investments, all of which made a fortune in the 9/11 and 2008 crises.</p><p>But Taleb's method is more difficult to learn. His own evaluation is:</p><p>\"Expecting a black swan event is risky, and you will pay the price of\" bloodshed \". You lose a little every day for a long time until an event happens, which gives you disproportionately high returns. No single event can make you miserable, but on the other hand, certain changes can give you huge returns that can make up for small losses over years, decades or even centuries.\" To reduce the difficulty, Taleb later spread it into<b>The \"barbell strategy\" allocates 90% of assets to Treasury Bond and money funds with almost no risk, and allocates a small part of assets to products similar to the above that can make profits in the \"black swan event\".</b></p><p>(For more about Taleb's investment philosophy, please read today's next article)</p><p><b>The third is Bridgewater Fund's \"all-weather strategy\"</b></p><p>Bridgewater Fund's most famous \"all-weather strategy\" model has two dimensions, \"economic upward and downward\" and \"inflation upward and downward\", which constitute four quadrants and represent large classes of assets with the same risk weight corresponding to the four environments. The portfolio has higher yields while maintaining lower pullback/retracement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9e5cfe7547f9640d2d1316a225a20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Different from the traditional combination idea of \"allocating different assets in different cycles\",<b>The \"all-weather strategy\" uses the above set of strategies to deal with all economic environments-including the extreme situation of black swan crisis, of course.</b></p><p>In order to achieve \"risk parity of all assets\", it is necessary to use high leverage in certain low-risk varieties (such as bonds), which requires Dalio to consider black swan risks in the overall portfolio.<b>For this reason, Dalio studied all the extreme events that have occurred in major economies in the past few hundred years, which obviously conflicts with Taleb's statement that \"past experience is unreliable\".</b></p><p>But in any case, Bridgewater Fund has been safe and sound in the impact of recent financial crises (although his portfolio almost \"exploded\" in the world's first wave of COVID-19 pandemic shocks in 2020), and when there is no crisis, It has also outperformed the market. As for whether it will still be effective in future black swan events, I hope we can know this answer in our lifetime (maybe soon).</p><p>Most of the \"macro hedge strategy funds\" on the market are born out of \"all-weather strategies\", so these products are the easiest way for you to deal with the \"black swan event\" at present-but if you believe in Taleb's philosophy There is no doubt that this kind of product is not necessarily reliable either.</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Key points of black swan thinking:</p><p>1. The unpredictability of the \"black swan\" event stems from its three characteristics: small probability events, unreliable experience and things we don't know;</p><p>2. The fourth characteristic of the financial black swan: only by letting the crisis break out completely can the crisis be completely solved, so the government's response is the biggest black swan;</p><p>3. Black swan is unpredictable, but it can be dealt with. There are three coping attitudes: passive utilization, active utilization, and all-weather strategy;</p><p>Finally, there is the most basic attitude Taleb tells us: you must fall in love with failure, as long as you avoid decisive failure.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1583721040246","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent \"black swans\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent \"black swans\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">人神共奋</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-26 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Unpredictable, but copable<b>A small probability event with a high probability?</b></p><p>Every time an investment article writes about \"black swan\", someone always asks, \"Don't be useless, just talk about what black swan events may have occurred in the past two years.\"</p><p>I always regret to tell him: \"<b>The biggest feature of black swan events is unforeseeability</b>, are events that most people didn't expect, events that everyone is worried about, but they are unlikely to become black swan events. \"</p><p>Some people are still unconvinced: \"I understand this. I don't want you to tell you which events are more likely to become black swans as soon as you say it accurately.\"</p><p>Yeah? Small probability events with \"high probability\"? I'm sorry, I'm leaving!</p><p>Since it is unpredictable, what is the significance of discussing the black swan event?</p><p>Taleb, the author of Black Swan, divides black swan events into two types: the first is the black swan phenomenon that people talk about, and the second is the black swan event that no one knows.</p><p><b>As a \"small probability event\", the black swan event itself cannot be predicted or even avoided (i.e. the second type); However, as a \"common phenomenon\" with a high probability (that is, the first one), it can be dealt with and even used for profit.</b></p><p>This is Black Swan Thinking, the 14th article in the series of \"99 Thinking Models\". Let's talk about \"Black Swan Thinking\".</p><p><b>We don't know \"what we don't know\"</b></p><p>The unpredictability of black swans will cause a major cognitive obstacle-<b>We cannot understand its laws from past experience like other knowledge</b>, reflected in three aspects:</p><p><b>First, the black swan event is a small probability event and an event that is easily overlooked by people</b></p><p>This point, as analyzed earlier, people's first impression of small probability random events is: Why should I waste precious energy and resources just for this unlikely thing?</p><p>However, there are many small probability events in life, and not every event has a significant impact. Is this always a rule?</p><p>Unfortunately, there are rules, but they are not credible, which is the second reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Second, past experience is unreliable</b></p><p>Before there is a rear-end collision, you always think that the distance between yourself and the car in front is appropriate enough for you to react, and your basis is precisely that-this distance has never made me rear-end.</p><p><b>The unreliability of experience stems from the unreliability of \"induction\" itself</b>, all our experience, may be \"what the turkey thinks of the farmer before Thanksgiving\", which in turn constitutes the third reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Third, what you don't know is often the most important thing</b></p><p>Suppose a legislator, through relentless efforts, passed a law requiring airlines to install bulletproof doors to pilot cockpits and lock them from the inside (a requirement after 9/11) before September 2001?</p><p>Naturally, then there would be no \"911\". But here's the question. If \"911\" never happened, who would admit the \"contribution\" of this legislator? What is more likely is that airlines increase costs and are hated by employees.</p><p>Summarizing the reasons why \"black swans\" are unavoidable, the author said: \"<b>What we don't know is more important than what we know, which is the real reason why the black swan event appears</b>”。</p><p><b>Small probability events, unreliable experience, and things we don't know</b>, these are the three characteristics of the \"Black Swan\" incident.</p><p>Of course, people always want to take the initiative to control the situation. In the financial field, because the system is too complicated and important, the government has designed many mechanisms to prevent the occurrence of \"black swan\" incidents.</p><p>Take the financial crisis in 2008 as an example. To some extent, the financial crisis in 2008 was not a \"black swan event\". It lasted for a year, and it was a crisis that the whole market was worried about and all parties were fully mobilized, but watched it happen.</p><p>In fact, this makes it better reflect the three characteristics of the \"black swan\" event: \"small probability event, unreliable experience and things we don't know\".</p><p><b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely resolved</b></p><p>In the years before the subprime mortgage crisis, many people issued warnings of abnormal mortgage data in advance, and many smart investors began to trade the crisis in advance (you can read the article \"Only two days are happy in the life of a successful person\"), the most typical of which is the explosion in the circulation of CDS based on various CDOs (for details, see \"Can We Avoid the Next\" Subprime Mortgage Crisis \"?\" Article).</p><p>CDS is equivalent to financial institutions \"buying insurance\" for their subordinated debt. They feel bad in their hearts, but they subjectively feel that the problem is controllable.<b>This seemingly cautious and actually optimistic mood hits the \"unreliable past experience\" characteristic of the black swan event.</b></p><p>A series of events that happened later also seemed to \"verify\" people's experience. The prelude to the subprime mortgage crisis kicked off in April, 2007. New Century Financial Corporation, the second largest subprime mortgage scale, filed for bankruptcy protection, and it was also the first financial institution to fail in the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>At that time, the mortgage crisis was already obvious, and the mortgage default rate exceeded a record 1 million units. However, the stock market only fell slightly to \"show respect\" and continued to hit new highs without looking back.</p><p><b>The truly unpredictable black swan factor in the financial crisis is the government's \"response\" to the crisis-investors all assume that someone is solving the problem, so they think that there is a high probability that it will not trigger a crisis.</b></p><p>In early July, 2007, bond rating agencies felt that \"paper couldn't hold the fire\" and began to downgrade the risk rating of subordinated debt. The market still only fell for one day.</p><p>It was not until late July that the fund products related to subprime loans began to explode that the market realized that the crisis had \"infected\" a large number of financial products from subprime debt, and realized that this was the most serious crisis since 9/11. The market finally had a decent \"plunge\" of more than 10%.</p><p>But the decline stopped in mid-August because the government finally made a move: the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, release liquidity, and inject capital into more financial institutions; The Bush administration provided loan guarantees to borrowers hit by the subprime mortgage crisis; Congress is also considering a new plan to temporarily suspend the tax burden caused by mortgage default on home borrowers; The Treasury Department has set up a $100 billion fund to buy troubled mortgage securities...</p><p>When everyone saw it, all parties took action and policies were released. The economic situation itself was very good, but it was just a credit crisis in some areas. Even if this crisis passed, the stock market not only recovered its lost ground, but also reached a new high in October.</p><p>In fact, from October 2007 to July 2008, on the one hand, the sales of the property market continued to deteriorate, and the subordinated debt and default rate involved rose sharply. The crisis continued to deteriorate in the whole financial system, and subordinated debt-related products exploded one after another, and almost all financial institutions suffered huge losses; But on the other hand, these problems are overshadowed by the escalating capital injection plan of the Federal Reserve and the government's increased economic stimulus package.</p><p>In the contest between the crisis and the response to the crisis, most people still believe in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the government's toolbox, so although the market is slowly declining, it is still supported at a relatively high position.</p><p>Before the real plunge, there were two waves of crises in the market, one was the crisis of Bear Stearns, and the other was the crisis of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Finally, acquisitions and government takeovers pressed the \"pause button\" on the crisis.</p><p>These two actions of \"the magic is one foot high, the road is one foot high\" have given the market an illusion. Now the government's \"financial toolbox\" is very big, and a big financial crisis will not happen. This makes others, including the Federal Reserve and the government, also \"reflect\", are they \"too cautious\" or too wide? People are also complaining that policies waste taxpayers' money.</p><p><b>This \"illusion\" and \"reflection\" just verifies what Taleb said in his book that \"what we don't know is more important than what we know\". As a result, when facing the next object in need of help \"Lehman Brothers\", the Federal Reserve chose another path-let it go bankrupt.</b></p><p>After lurking for nearly a year, this \"black swan\" finally found an opportunity to show its true colors. Before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the market only fell by 15% in one year, and then plummeted by 40% in the next two months. The subprime mortgage crisis immediately turned into a global financial crisis, and the credit of the whole society froze, which spread to the real economy. The unemployment rate hit the highest level since the end of World War II.</p><p>Everyone knows that the best way to deal with this kind of financial crisis is to inject liquidity far beyond the crisis level on a large scale and nip it in the bud. But,<b>If the stock market doesn't \"die for you\", how can Congress pass the 700 billion bailout plan so quickly? How can Wall Street banks accept government capital injections?</b></p><p><b>Everyone knows that the Black Swan event is costly, but everyone questions the necessary sacrifices in advance</b>, take this year's Federal Reserve rate hike as an example. Everyone knows that rate hike was the best way when inflation first started, but if inflation was really beaten down once or twice, most people will begin to question again, how can there be inflation? The Fed is scaring people again.</p><p>This is the fourth feature of the financial \"black swan\" event:<b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely solved.</b></p><p>Therefore, the specific \"black swan event\" itself cannot be predicted and avoided, but there are some basic ways to deal with the \"black swan phenomenon\".</p><p><b>Three ways to deal with a black swan</b></p><p>There are three different attitudes to dealing with black swan events:</p><p><b>The first is Buffett's \"passive exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>The best reflection of Buffett's response to the \"black swan incident\" is his letter to shareholders in 1994:</p><p>\"We will continue to ignore political forecasts and economic forecasts, which are costly pastimes for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one predicted the widespread spread of the Vietnam War, wage and price control, two oil crises, the resignation of the president, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Dow plummeting 508 points in one day, or the yield of short-term government bonds (Treasury Bill) fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. Surprisingly, however, these once sensational major events never made Ben Graham's investment principles flaw in the slightest, nor made any mistakes in buying excellent companies at reasonable prices. Imagine how much it will cost us if we delay or change our allocation and use of funds because of these inexplicable fears. In fact, we usually take advantage of the moment when some major macro event leads to the peak of market pessimism to find the best buying opportunities. \" It seems that Buffett's attitude towards the crisis is the simplest, that is, not to predict the crisis. Once it occurs, he must seize this opportunity and buy a good company.</p><p>This approach seems to be the easiest for ordinary people to learn, but in fact it is not the case. Buffett's main successful investment in the later period made him make a lot of money<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, none of them were bought during the Black Swan incident. On the contrary, they were considered too expensive when they were bought. And his sale in aviation stocks at the \"bottom of the epidemic\" in 2020 was actually based on the experience of the short-term impact of the 9/11 incident on aviation stocks, which was later denied by himself.</p><p><b>Buffett can ignore the \"black swan\", but it is also difficult to take advantage of it, because the impact on stock prices caused by crisis events seems large, but for long-term investments lasting for more than ten years, the impact on final returns is minimal.</b></p><p><b>The second is Taleb's \"active exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>Taleb's attitude is completely opposite to Buffett's.<b>A black swan event is a risk for most people, but if you are on the side of most people's counterparties, it is a \"winning lottery ticket\".</b></p><p>Taleb has many trades based on the black swan theory. He once bought \"$5 sell\" at extremely low prices<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Put options \", when General Motors' stock price was still above $30. For example, when you were in Maotai for 2,000 yuan, you bet with others that Maotai would fall to 300 yuan. It seems like a very stupid transaction, so he can buy it for almost nothing. But by the time of 9/11 incident, these put options didn't look so outrageous, and the price naturally went up. Empirica, the hedge fund he manages, has many similar investments, all of which made a fortune in the 9/11 and 2008 crises.</p><p>But Taleb's method is more difficult to learn. His own evaluation is:</p><p>\"Expecting a black swan event is risky, and you will pay the price of\" bloodshed \". You lose a little every day for a long time until an event happens, which gives you disproportionately high returns. No single event can make you miserable, but on the other hand, certain changes can give you huge returns that can make up for small losses over years, decades or even centuries.\" To reduce the difficulty, Taleb later spread it into<b>The \"barbell strategy\" allocates 90% of assets to Treasury Bond and money funds with almost no risk, and allocates a small part of assets to products similar to the above that can make profits in the \"black swan event\".</b></p><p>(For more about Taleb's investment philosophy, please read today's next article)</p><p><b>The third is Bridgewater Fund's \"all-weather strategy\"</b></p><p>Bridgewater Fund's most famous \"all-weather strategy\" model has two dimensions, \"economic upward and downward\" and \"inflation upward and downward\", which constitute four quadrants and represent large classes of assets with the same risk weight corresponding to the four environments. The portfolio has higher yields while maintaining lower pullback/retracement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9e5cfe7547f9640d2d1316a225a20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Different from the traditional combination idea of \"allocating different assets in different cycles\",<b>The \"all-weather strategy\" uses the above set of strategies to deal with all economic environments-including the extreme situation of black swan crisis, of course.</b></p><p>In order to achieve \"risk parity of all assets\", it is necessary to use high leverage in certain low-risk varieties (such as bonds), which requires Dalio to consider black swan risks in the overall portfolio.<b>For this reason, Dalio studied all the extreme events that have occurred in major economies in the past few hundred years, which obviously conflicts with Taleb's statement that \"past experience is unreliable\".</b></p><p>But in any case, Bridgewater Fund has been safe and sound in the impact of recent financial crises (although his portfolio almost \"exploded\" in the world's first wave of COVID-19 pandemic shocks in 2020), and when there is no crisis, It has also outperformed the market. As for whether it will still be effective in future black swan events, I hope we can know this answer in our lifetime (maybe soon).</p><p>Most of the \"macro hedge strategy funds\" on the market are born out of \"all-weather strategies\", so these products are the easiest way for you to deal with the \"black swan event\" at present-but if you believe in Taleb's philosophy There is no doubt that this kind of product is not necessarily reliable either.</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Key points of black swan thinking:</p><p>1. The unpredictability of the \"black swan\" event stems from its three characteristics: small probability events, unreliable experience and things we don't know;</p><p>2. The fourth characteristic of the financial black swan: only by letting the crisis break out completely can the crisis be completely solved, so the government's response is the biggest black swan;</p><p>3. Black swan is unpredictable, but it can be dealt with. There are three coping attitudes: passive utilization, active utilization, and all-weather strategy;</p><p>Finally, there is the most basic attitude Taleb tells us: you must fall in love with failure, as long as you avoid decisive failure.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd\">人神共奋</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe8ba21c8b5ac2b562fdf822ed7fcb2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198339027","content_text":"不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大部分人没有想到的事件，大家都在担心的事件，反而不太可能成为黑天鹅事件。”总有人还是不服气：“这个我懂，不是让你一说一个准，你就说说哪些事件变黑天鹅的可能性比较大呗。”嗯？“可能性大”的小概率事件？对不住，告辞了！既然无法预测，那讨论黑天鹅事件的意义何在呢？《黑天鹅》一书的作者塔勒布把黑天鹅事件分为两种：第一种是人们谈到的黑天鹅现象，第二种是无人知晓的黑天鹅事件。黑天鹅事件作为一个“小概率事件”本身无法预测，甚至无法回避（即第二种）；但作为一种大概率出现的“普遍现象”（即第一种），却可以应对，甚至利用它来获利。这就是黑天鹅思维，“99种思维模型”系列的第14篇，就来聊一聊“黑天鹅思维”。我们不知道“我们不知道什么”黑天鹅的不可预测性，会造成一个认知上的重大障碍——我们无法像其他知识一样，从过去的经验中理解它的规律，体现在三个方面：第一、黑天鹅事件是小概率事件，也是容易被人们忽略的事件这一点，前面已经分析过了，小概率的随机事件，人们的第一印象就是：为什么要我浪费宝贵的精力和资源，只为了这种不太可能发生的事？不过，生活中的小概率事件很多，并不是每一件都有重大影响，这总有规律吧？非常遗憾，规律是有，但它们并不可信，这就是“不可预测性”的第二个原因：第二、过去的经验不可靠在没有发生追尾事故之前，你总是认为自己与前车的距离是合适的，足以让你作出反应，而你的依据恰恰是——这个车距从来没有让我追尾过。经验的不可靠，源于“归纳法”本身的不可靠，我们的所有经验，都可能是“感恩节前的火鸡对农场主的看法”，而这又构成了“不可预测性”的第三个原因：第三、不知道的事，往往才是最重要的事假设有一位立法者通过不懈的努力，在2001年9月之前，通过了一项法律，要求航空公司必须为飞行员驾驶舱安装防弹门并从内面上锁（这是911后的要求），结果会怎样呢？自然，那就没有“911”了。可问题来了，如果“911”从没有发生过，这位立法者的“贡献”谁会去承认呢？更有可能的是让航空公司增加了成本而被从业人员憎恨。作者总结“黑天鹅”无法避免的原因时说：“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要，这才是黑天鹅事件出现的真正原因”。小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事，这是“黑天鹅”事件的三个特点。当然，人总是希望主动控制局面，在金融领域，由于系统过于复杂，且事关重大，政府设计很多的机制去防止“黑天鹅”事件的发生。以2008年的金融危机为例，从某种程度上说，2008年的金融危机不算是“黑天鹅事件”，它的发生持续了一年，是一件全市场都在担心、各方全面动员，却眼睁睁的看着它发生的危机。事实，这让它更能体现“黑天鹅”事件的“小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事”这三个特点。只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决在次贷危机发生前的几年，就有很多人提前发出房贷数据不正常的警告，很多机灵的投资者就开始提前交易危机（可以看一看文章《成功者的一生，只有两天是开心的》），最典型的就是基于各种CDO的CDS的发行量爆增（详情见《我们能够避免下一次“次贷危机”吗？》一文）。CDS相当于金融机构为自己持有的次级债“买保险”，他们心中大感不妙，但又主观地觉得问题可控，这种看似谨慎、实际乐观的情绪，击中了黑天鹅事件“过去的经验不可靠”的特点。后来发生的一系列事件，也似乎“验证”了人们的经验。次贷危机的序幕于2007年4月拉开，次级贷规模排名第二的新世纪金融公司申请破产保护，也是第一家在次贷危机中倒闭的金融机构。当时的房贷危机已经很明显了，房贷违约率突破创纪录的100万套，但股市只是稍微跌了一下“以表敬意”，就头也不回地继续创新高了。金融危机里真正不可预测的黑天鹅因素，就是政府对危机的“应对”——投资者们都假设有人正在解决问题，从而认为大概率不会引发危机。到了2007年的7月份上旬，债券评级机构觉得“纸包不住火”，开始下调次级债的风险评级，市场还是只跌了一天。直到7月下旬，次级贷的相关基金产品开始爆雷，市场才意识到危机已经从次级债“传染”至大量的金融产品，意识到这是911之后最严重的一次危机，市场终于有了一波超过10%的像样的“暴跌”。但跌势到了8月中旬就止住了，原因在于政府终于出手了：美联储开始降息，释放流动性，并向更多金融机构注资；布什政府向受到次贷危机冲击的借款人提供贷款担保；国会也在审议新方案，暂时中止房屋借款人因按揭还款违约而形成的税收负担；财政部成立一支价值1000亿美元的基金，用以购买陷入困境的抵押证券……大家一看，各方都行动起来了，政策也出了，经济形势本身就是一片大好，只是局部领域的信用危机，这危机就算是过去了，结果股市不但收复了失地，还于10月再创新高。实际上，从2007年10月到2008年7月的大半年的时间里，一方面是楼市销售继续恶化，涉及的次级债和违约率急剧上升，危机仍然在整个金融系统继续恶化，次级债相关产品纷纷爆雷，金融机构几乎都落得巨额亏损；但另一方面，这些问题都被美联储不断升级的注资计划和政府加大的一揽子经济刺激法案所掩盖了。危机与应对危机的较量中，大部分人还是相信美联储的货币政策和政府的工具箱，所以市场虽然缓缓下跌，但仍然在一个比较高的位置上获得支撑。在真正的暴跌到来前，市场出现过两波危机，一波是贝尔斯登的危机，一波是房地美和房利美的危机，最终都以收购和政府接管给危机按下“暂停键”。这两次“魔高一尺，道高一丈”的行动，给市场一个错觉，现在政府的“金融工具箱”很大，大的金融危机不会发生，这就使得另一些人，包括美联储和政府也在“反思”，自己是不是“过于谨慎”了，是不是管得太宽了？民众也在抱怨政策浪费纳税人的钱。这种“错觉”和“反思”，恰恰验证了塔勒布书中所说的“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要”，结果就是在面对下一个需要求助的对象“雷曼兄弟”时，美联储选择了另一条道路——任其破产。这只“黑天鹅”在潜伏了近一年后，终于找到机会露出了真面目，雷曼兄弟破产事件之前，市场一年才跌了15%，之后的两个月就暴跌了40%。次贷危机立刻演变成全球的金融危机，全社会信用冻结，并波及实体经济，失业率创下二战结束以来的最高水平。人人都知道，应对这一类金融危机，最好的方法就是大规模注入远超危机程度的流动性，扼杀在萌芽状态。可是，如果股市不“死给你看”，国会怎么可能这么快通过7000亿的救市计划？华尔街各大银行怎么可能接受政府注资？人人都知道黑天鹅事件损失巨大，但人人都会事先质疑为此作出的必要的牺牲，以今年的美联储加息为例，谁都知道通胀刚起来时加息是最好的方法，但如果真的一两次加息就把通胀打下去，大部分人又开始质疑，哪有什么通胀？美联储又在吓唬人。这就是金融“黑天鹅”事件的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决。所以说，具体“黑天鹅事件”本身是无法预测和避免的，但对于“黑天鹅现象”，却有一些基本的应对方法。应对黑天鹅的三种方法应对黑天鹅事件有三种不同的态度：第一种是巴菲特的“被动利用”的态度最能体现巴菲特对“黑天鹅事件”的应对态度的是他在1994年致股东的信：“我们将继续对政治预测和经济预测置之不理，这些东西对许多投资者和商人来说是代价高昂的消遣。30年前，谁也没有预测到越南战争的大面积扩散、工资与物价控制、两次石油危机、总统辞职、苏联解体、道指在一天内大跌508点，或是短期政府债券（Treasury Bill）的收益率在2.8%～17.4%之间波动。不过令人惊讶的是，这些曾经轰动一时的重大事件却从未让本·格雷厄姆的投资原则出现丝毫的瑕疵，也从没有让以合理的价格买进优秀的企业出现什么失误。想象一下，若是我们因为这些莫名的恐惧而延迟或改变我们对资金的配置使用，将会使我们付出多少代价。事实上，我们通常都是利用某些重大宏观事件导致市场悲观气氛到达顶点的时机，才找到最好的买入机会。”看上去，巴菲特应对危机的态度最简单，就是不要预测危机，一旦出现了，就要抓住这个机会，大买特买好公司。这种做法看上去普通人最容易学，但实际上并不是那么回事，巴菲特后期主要的成功投资，让他赚大钱的苹果、可口可乐，都不是在黑天鹅事件中买的，相反，买的时候都被人们认为太贵了。而他在2020年“疫情底”出手航空股，实际上是基于911事件对航空股短暂冲击的经验，后来被自己否定了。巴菲特可以无视“黑天鹅”，但也很难利用，因为危机事件造成的股价冲击看起来大，但对于长达十几年的长线投资而言，对最终收益的影响微乎其微。第二是塔勒布的“主动利用”的态度塔勒布的态度与巴菲特完全相反，黑天鹅事件对于大部分人来说都是风险，但如果你站在大部分人的交易对手那一边，那就是一张“中奖彩票”。塔勒布有很多基于黑天鹅理论的交易，他曾经以极低的价格买入“5美元卖出通用汽车的看跌期权”，那时通用汽车的股价还在30美元以上。好比你在茅台2000元的时候，跟别人打赌茅台会跌到300元，看起来是一笔很愚蠢的交易，所以他才能以几乎不要钱的价格买到。但到了911事件时，这些看跌期权看上去也没那么离谱，价格自然涨上去。他管理的对冲基金Empirica有很多类似的投资，都在911、2008年的危机中大赚一笔。但塔勒布的方法更难学，他自己的评价是：“期待黑天鹅事件的发生充满风险，你将会付出“流血”的代价。你在很长一段时间里每天损失一点点，直到某个事件发生，这使你获得不成比例的高回报。没有哪个单独的事件能够使你惨败，另一方面，某些变化却能够为你带来足以弥补几年、几十年甚至几百年的小损失的巨大回报。”为了降低难度，塔勒布后来在《反脆弱》一书中，将其扩散成“杠铃策略”，将90%的资产配置于几乎没有什么风险的国债、货币基金上，小部分资产配置于类似上面这些可以在“黑天鹅事件”中获利的产品上。（更多塔勒布的投资理念，可以看今天的次条文章）第三种是桥水基金的“全天候策略”桥水基金最著名的“全天候策略”模型有两个维度，“经济上行与下行”，“通胀上行与下行”，构成四个象限，代表四种环境对应的相同风险权重的大类资产，使组合具有更高收益率的同时保持更低的回撤。与“不同周期配不同资产”的传统组合思路不同，“全天候策略”用了上面的一套策略应对所有的经济环境——当然也就包括了黑天鹅危机这种极端情况。为了达到“所有资产的风险平价”，需要在某些低风险的品种（比如债券）中运用高杠杆，这就要求达利欧把黑天鹅风险也纳入整体组合来考虑。达利欧为此研究了主要经济体过去几百年发生过的所有极端事件，这显然与塔勒布的“过去的经验不可靠”的说法冲突。但不管怎么说，桥水基金在最近几个金融危机的冲击中都安然无恙（虽然他的组合在2020年的全球第一波新冠疫情冲击中，差点“爆雷”），在没有危机的时候，也都跑赢了市场，至于在未来的黑天鹅事件中会不会依然有效，希望有生之年我们可以知道这个答案（说不定快了）。市面上大部分“宏观对冲策略基金”都是脱胎于“全天候策略”，所以这类产品是你应对“黑天鹅事件”目前最简单的方法——但如果你对塔勒布的理念深信不疑，这一类产品也不见得可靠。总结黑天鹅思维的要点 ：1、“黑天鹅”事件的不可预测性，源于它的三个特点：小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事；2、金融黑天鹅的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能彻底解决危机，所以政府的应对是最大的黑天鹅；3、黑天鹅不可预测，但可应对，有三种应对态度：被动利用，主动利用，全天候策略；最后，还有一个塔勒布告诉我们的最基本的态度：你必须爱上失败，只要避免决定性的失败。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909849432,"gmtCreate":1658851681026,"gmtModify":1676536217738,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points&nbsp;","listText":"Good points&nbsp;","text":"Good points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909849432","repostId":"1113527890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113527890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658849122,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113527890?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 23:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113527890","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"摘要：关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管谷歌股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>Key valuation metrics indicate that GOOG is trading at a discount to historical valuation standards. Despite<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The stock price may fall in the short term due to economic news, but its long-term business orientation can increase its free cash flow.</p><p>Alphabet Inc. 's (NASDAQ: GOOG) valuation doesn't match the tech company's solid and recession-proof market position.</p><p>Google's companies generate large amounts of regular, predictable, low-risk cash flows that are expected to increase over time. Google's strong free cash flow growth and long-term good yields make it a very attractive investment option.</p><p>Lower P/E relative to Google's sales potential reduces risk, and the ability to increase cash flow in a variety of market conditions makes GOOG one of the best stocks to invest in.</p><p><b>01. Huge free cash flow and shareholder-friendly management</b></p><p>Google's management has proven that they have a long-term vision and use cash in a reasonable, value-adding way. Google is at the forefront of numerous industries at the same time, whether it's the acquisition of YouTube a few years ago, a smart and visionary investment in the cloud market, or more recently with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(Amazon) partnered to monetize e-commerce expansion.</p><p>As a result of this foresight, the company has seen steady growth in revenue and free cash flow. Investors are particularly interested in Google's free cash flow growth because free cash flow is a statistic that indicates how much cash a company can return to shareholders in the form of Dividend or share buybacks.</p><p>Google is a real beast when it comes to cash flow. In the most recent quarter alone, the company received $25.1 billion in cash from operations. After deducting $9.8 billion in capital expenditures, the company's capital expenditures were $15.3 billion. Google's free cash flow growth is phenomenal, with total free cash flow up 141.9% over the past five years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dbcd3cdc516fbd322c81f53a50d258\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>02. What does Google do with this cash?</b></p><p>It uses a fair portion of its free cash flow to buy back shares in the market. Alphabet's board has approved the company's $70 billion share repurchase, and the deal will take place when management deems fit. Google's free cash flow and share buybacks have increased over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d5ac9d99c59d51c1f088a4a2f90ebf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p>The free cash flow trend is positive, and the company is about to experience a major trigger that could propel its cash flow to new heights.</p><p><b>03. Growth catalyst: YouTube/Shopify Partnership</b></p><p>The move comes just days after YouTube made headlines by announcing a new partnership with e-commerce giant Shopify.</p><p>As part of the partnership, Shopify will integrate its shopping system into creators' YouTube pages, allowing viewers to shop directly on YouTube without needing to leave the site.</p><p>The partnership is helped by two big factors: YouTube has 2 billion logged-in users every month, and Shopify is the leading platform for small businesses. There are considerable synergies in this relationship, with YouTube's creative community set to gain a lot from an integrated shopping service and Shopify benefiting from entering a potentially undersupplied market.</p><p>In my opinion, SMBs have a lot of overlap with the two core users of YouTube or Shopify platforms. YouTube will be able to benefit from Shopify's inventory syncing expertise, while producers will be able to simply make their products available for purchase on their channels, resulting in a seamless buying experience. The Shopify connection on YouTube also allows producers to sell merchandise during live streams, which could change not only the e-commerce business, but Google as well.</p><p>I am very excited about Google's potential and believe that Google has very good revenue opportunities here. Google mainly pockets YouTube through advertising, but it also offers subscription services like YouTube Premium and YouTube TV. A partnership with e-commerce will be announced soon, which could be a powerful accelerator for the development of excellent sales for video streaming platforms.</p><p><b>04. Google's yield is 5%, and the stock is very cheap</b></p><p>Investing is simple. You are buying quality businesses that have steady cash flow within their respective industries and the potential to attract long-term growth. In ideal circumstances, this increase is greatly discounted, as is the case with Google.</p><p>The market expects EPS of $5.47 in 2022, implying EPS of 5.1% at the current price of $110. (Implied P/E 19.8 x). Based on expected earnings of $6.46 per share next year, Google's earnings yield will rise to 6.0%. (Implied return multiple 16.8 x).</p><p>With the consensus estimate of annual earnings growth of 18.1%, the yield of 5% (equivalent to 20 times P/E) is quite low, indicating that the market is too worried about Google's growth. However, the relationship between YouTube and Shopify could help Google's revenue growth, which is not fully reflected in current projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9690baf4c709b9e2a5c130e51231eb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Revenue Estimate (Google)</p><p>In addition to P/E, valuation indices have stabilized recently, suggesting that the market's risk aversion towards Google has risen.</p><p>Valuation metrics such as the price-to-free cash flow ratio, enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio, and enterprise value-to-cash flow ratio all fell significantly in 2022, indicating that the market has begun to underestimate Google's growth prospects.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/086910ae0286dcf744198b0d8ac52fb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>05. Why Google's valuation is lower</b></p><p>Google's cash flow relies heavily on the company's performance in digital advertising. A recession has the potential to reduce Google's ad revenue, which could be reflected in lower free cash flow.</p><p>Considering the amount of free cash flow Google has, the technology business has handled the downturn well. A drop in e-commerce spending won't undermine YouTube and Shopify's alliance before the recession begins, but it may take longer for the market to recognize its true potential.</p><p><b>06. Conclusion</b></p><p>Google is a great deal at 16.8 x P/E, and I bought this stock in a big way with the current stock price drop.</p><p>Google isn't the only big tech company taking a hit right now, but the company's cash flow is very strong. Although the company's stock may fall in the short term because of economic news, the company's long-term business orientation is quite strong and free cash flow is increasing nicely.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街大事件</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-26 23:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>Key valuation metrics indicate that GOOG is trading at a discount to historical valuation standards. Despite<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The stock price may fall in the short term due to economic news, but its long-term business orientation can increase its free cash flow.</p><p>Alphabet Inc. 's (NASDAQ: GOOG) valuation doesn't match the tech company's solid and recession-proof market position.</p><p>Google's companies generate large amounts of regular, predictable, low-risk cash flows that are expected to increase over time. Google's strong free cash flow growth and long-term good yields make it a very attractive investment option.</p><p>Lower P/E relative to Google's sales potential reduces risk, and the ability to increase cash flow in a variety of market conditions makes GOOG one of the best stocks to invest in.</p><p><b>01. Huge free cash flow and shareholder-friendly management</b></p><p>Google's management has proven that they have a long-term vision and use cash in a reasonable, value-adding way. Google is at the forefront of numerous industries at the same time, whether it's the acquisition of YouTube a few years ago, a smart and visionary investment in the cloud market, or more recently with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(Amazon) partnered to monetize e-commerce expansion.</p><p>As a result of this foresight, the company has seen steady growth in revenue and free cash flow. Investors are particularly interested in Google's free cash flow growth because free cash flow is a statistic that indicates how much cash a company can return to shareholders in the form of Dividend or share buybacks.</p><p>Google is a real beast when it comes to cash flow. In the most recent quarter alone, the company received $25.1 billion in cash from operations. After deducting $9.8 billion in capital expenditures, the company's capital expenditures were $15.3 billion. Google's free cash flow growth is phenomenal, with total free cash flow up 141.9% over the past five years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dbcd3cdc516fbd322c81f53a50d258\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>02. What does Google do with this cash?</b></p><p>It uses a fair portion of its free cash flow to buy back shares in the market. Alphabet's board has approved the company's $70 billion share repurchase, and the deal will take place when management deems fit. Google's free cash flow and share buybacks have increased over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d5ac9d99c59d51c1f088a4a2f90ebf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p>The free cash flow trend is positive, and the company is about to experience a major trigger that could propel its cash flow to new heights.</p><p><b>03. Growth catalyst: YouTube/Shopify Partnership</b></p><p>The move comes just days after YouTube made headlines by announcing a new partnership with e-commerce giant Shopify.</p><p>As part of the partnership, Shopify will integrate its shopping system into creators' YouTube pages, allowing viewers to shop directly on YouTube without needing to leave the site.</p><p>The partnership is helped by two big factors: YouTube has 2 billion logged-in users every month, and Shopify is the leading platform for small businesses. There are considerable synergies in this relationship, with YouTube's creative community set to gain a lot from an integrated shopping service and Shopify benefiting from entering a potentially undersupplied market.</p><p>In my opinion, SMBs have a lot of overlap with the two core users of YouTube or Shopify platforms. YouTube will be able to benefit from Shopify's inventory syncing expertise, while producers will be able to simply make their products available for purchase on their channels, resulting in a seamless buying experience. The Shopify connection on YouTube also allows producers to sell merchandise during live streams, which could change not only the e-commerce business, but Google as well.</p><p>I am very excited about Google's potential and believe that Google has very good revenue opportunities here. Google mainly pockets YouTube through advertising, but it also offers subscription services like YouTube Premium and YouTube TV. A partnership with e-commerce will be announced soon, which could be a powerful accelerator for the development of excellent sales for video streaming platforms.</p><p><b>04. Google's yield is 5%, and the stock is very cheap</b></p><p>Investing is simple. You are buying quality businesses that have steady cash flow within their respective industries and the potential to attract long-term growth. In ideal circumstances, this increase is greatly discounted, as is the case with Google.</p><p>The market expects EPS of $5.47 in 2022, implying EPS of 5.1% at the current price of $110. (Implied P/E 19.8 x). Based on expected earnings of $6.46 per share next year, Google's earnings yield will rise to 6.0%. (Implied return multiple 16.8 x).</p><p>With the consensus estimate of annual earnings growth of 18.1%, the yield of 5% (equivalent to 20 times P/E) is quite low, indicating that the market is too worried about Google's growth. However, the relationship between YouTube and Shopify could help Google's revenue growth, which is not fully reflected in current projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9690baf4c709b9e2a5c130e51231eb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Revenue Estimate (Google)</p><p>In addition to P/E, valuation indices have stabilized recently, suggesting that the market's risk aversion towards Google has risen.</p><p>Valuation metrics such as the price-to-free cash flow ratio, enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio, and enterprise value-to-cash flow ratio all fell significantly in 2022, indicating that the market has begun to underestimate Google's growth prospects.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/086910ae0286dcf744198b0d8ac52fb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>05. Why Google's valuation is lower</b></p><p>Google's cash flow relies heavily on the company's performance in digital advertising. A recession has the potential to reduce Google's ad revenue, which could be reflected in lower free cash flow.</p><p>Considering the amount of free cash flow Google has, the technology business has handled the downturn well. A drop in e-commerce spending won't undermine YouTube and Shopify's alliance before the recession begins, but it may take longer for the market to recognize its true potential.</p><p><b>06. Conclusion</b></p><p>Google is a great deal at 16.8 x P/E, and I bought this stock in a big way with the current stock price drop.</p><p>Google isn't the only big tech company taking a hit right now, but the company's cash flow is very strong. Although the company's stock may fall in the short term because of economic news, the company's long-term business orientation is quite strong and free cash flow is increasing nicely.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XIlb0xjCoMMc1Zj3BYlbuQ\">华尔街大事件</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4576":"AR","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XIlb0xjCoMMc1Zj3BYlbuQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1113527890","content_text":"摘要：关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管谷歌股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与这家科技公司稳健且能抵御经济衰退的市场地位不符。谷歌的公司产生了大量定期的、可预测的、低风险的现金流，预计随着时间的推移会增加。谷歌强劲的自由现金流增长和长期良好的收益率使其成为一个非常有吸引力的投资选择。相对于谷歌的销售潜力而言，较低的市盈率降低了风险，而且在各种市场条件下增加现金流的能力使GOOG成为最值得投资的股票之一。01、巨大的自由现金流和股东友好型管理谷歌的管理层已经证明，他们的眼光是长远的，并以合理的、增值的方式使用现金。谷歌同时走在了众多行业的前列，无论是几年前收购YouTube，还是在云市场上明智而有远见的投资，还是最近与亚马逊(Amazon)合作，利用电子商务扩张获利。由于这种远见卓识，公司的收入和自由现金流稳步增长。投资者对谷歌的自由现金流增长特别感兴趣，因为自由现金流是一个统计数据，它表明了一家公司可以将多少现金以股息或股票回购的形式返还给股东。说到现金流，谷歌真是一头猛兽。仅在最近一个季度，该公司就从运营中获得了251亿美元的现金。扣除98亿美元的资本支出后，该公司的资本支出为153亿美元。谷歌的自由现金流增长非常惊人，在过去五年里，总自由现金流增长了141.9%。数据来源：YCharts02、谷歌用这些现金做什么?它用相当一部分自由现金流在市场上回购股票。Alphabet董事会已批准该公司回购700亿美元的股票，交易将在管理层认为合适的时候进行。谷歌的自由现金流和股票回购随着时间的推移而增加。数据来源：YCharts自由现金流趋势为正，该公司即将经历一个可能推动其现金流达到新高度的主要触发器。03、增长催化剂：YouTube/Shopify Partnership就在几天前，YouTube宣布与电子商务巨头Shopify建立新的合作伙伴关系，成为头条新闻。作为合作的一部分，Shopify将把其购物系统整合到创作者的YouTube页面，允许观众直接在YouTube上购物，而不需要离开网站。这次合作得益于两大因素:YouTube每月有20亿登录用户，Shopify是面向小企业的领先平台。这种关系有相当大的协同效应，YouTube的创意社区将从综合购物服务中获益良多，而Shopify将从进入一个可能供应不足的市场中获益。在我看来，中小企业与YouTube或Shopify平台这两个核心用户有很多重叠之处。YouTube将能够受益于Shopify的库存同步专业知识，而生产者将能够简单地使他们的产品可在他们的渠道上购买，从而产生无缝的购买体验。YouTube上的Shopify连接还允许制作人在直播过程中销售商品，这不仅可能改变电商业务，也可能改变谷歌。我对谷歌的潜力感到非常兴奋，相信谷歌在这里有非常好的收入机会。谷歌主要通过广告将YouTube收入囊中，但它也提供YouTube Premium和YouTube TV等订阅服务。与电子商务的合作将很快公布，这可能会成为视频流媒体平台出色销售发展的强大加速器。04、谷歌的收益率为5%，股票非常便宜投资很简单。你购买的是在各自行业内具有稳定现金流和吸引长期增长潜力的优质企业。在理想情况下，这种增加被大大打折，就像谷歌的情况一样。市场预计2022年每股收益为5.47美元，这意味着按目前110美元的价格计算，每股收益为5.1%。(隐含市盈率19.8倍)。根据明年预期每股收益6.46美元计算，谷歌的收益收益率将升至6.0%。(隐含收益倍数16.8倍)。在市场普遍预期年收益增长18.1%的情况下，5%的收益率(相当于20倍的市盈率)是相当低的，这表明市场对谷歌的增长过于担忧。然而，YouTube和Shopify之间的关系可能有助于谷歌的收入增长，目前的预测并没有完全反映出来。收入估算（谷歌）除了市盈率之外，估值指数最近也趋于稳定，这表明市场对谷歌的避险情绪有所上升。2022年，价格与自由现金流比率、企业价值与EBITDA比率、企业价值与现金流比率等估值指标均大幅下降，表明市场已经开始低估谷歌的增长前景。数据来源：YCharts05、为什么谷歌的估值会更低谷歌的现金流严重依赖于公司在数字广告领域的表现。经济衰退有可能减少谷歌的广告收入，这可能反映在自由现金流下降。考虑到谷歌的自由现金流数额，该技术业务很好地应对了经济低迷。在经济衰退开始之前，电子商务支出的下降不会破坏YouTube和Shopify的联盟，但市场可能需要更长的时间才能认识到其真正的潜力。06、结论在16.8倍市盈率的情况下，谷歌非常划算，在当前股价下跌的情况下，我大举买入了这只股票。谷歌并不是目前唯一一家遭受打击的大型科技公司，但该公司的现金流非常强劲。尽管该公司的股票可能会因为经济消息而在短期内下跌，但该公司的长期业务导向相当强，自由现金流正在很好地增加。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044924018,"gmtCreate":1656692704634,"gmtModify":1676535878685,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recover to what level ?&nbsp;","listText":"Recover to what level ?&nbsp;","text":"Recover to what level ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044924018","repostId":"1188024956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188024956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656641744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188024956?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-01 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188024956","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analy","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-01 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188024956","content_text":"Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as investors are seeking safer investments amid persistent macro uncertainty. Shares of Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) have shed 49% of their value year-to-date. While the firm’s long-term prospects look promising, Wall Street analysts are mixed in their sentiment on the stock.Palantir helps government and commercial organizations to effectively integrate their data, decisions, and operations at scale.The data analytics firm’s first-quarter earnings miss and weak second-quarter guidance also dragged down its stock last month.Financial SnapshotPalantir’s Q1’22 revenue increased 31% to $446 million, but adjusted EPS declined 50% to $0.02. Revenue surpassed analysts’ expectations while adjusted EPS fell short of estimates. Also, the company’s Q2’22 outlook of $470 million (base case) lagged Wall Street’s estimates.Investors also noted a slowdown in Palantir’s Government revenue, which grew 16% to nearly $242 million in Q1’22, compared to the 26% growth rate in Q4’21.Often criticized for its over-dependence on government contracts, Palantir started focusing on expanding its presence in the commercial markets over the recent times. In Q1’22, overall Commercial revenue grew 54% to about $205 million, with U.S Commercial revenue surging 136%.Looking ahead, Palantir is optimistic about delivering annual revenue growth of 30% or more through 2025. The company feels that there is a “wide range of potential upside” to deliver revenue above its Q2 outlook, including demand triggered by the ongoing geopolitical events.Wall Street’s TakeRecently, Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges initiated coverage of Palantir with a Hold rating and a price target of $10. Borges feels that Palantir is uniquely positioned in an ecosystem of data analytics vendors and she is positive on the company’s longer-term opportunity to succeed in the enterprise.That said, Borges assigned a Hold rating on the stock citing limited visibility into the cadence of the business in any given quarter, especially in a weaker macro backdrop.Meanwhile, last week, Bank of America Securities analyst Mariana Perez Mora initiated coverage of Palantir with a Buy rating and a price target of $13. Perez views the company as a beneficiary of “rapidly growing demand” for artificial intelligence platforms in both commercial and government end markets.Perez further adds that Palantir’s “dominant” position in the AI-powered software market should drive over 30% annual revenue growth and improving profits.Overall, the Street is sidelined on the stock with a Hold rating based on three Buys, six Holds, and three Sells. The average Palantir price target of $11.32 implies 22.64% upside potential from current levels.ConclusionPalantir’s first-quarter results failed to impress investors and Wall Street analysts. Concerns about the slowdown in Government revenue growth and the company’s ability to meet its growth targets amid challenging times are keeping the majority of Wall Street analysts covering Palantir stock on the sidelines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570479349727470","authorId":"3570479349727470","name":"ALIBINHASSAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a7c31b79e7bff28841c5f18dca737f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570479349727470","idStr":"3570479349727470"},"content":"$13 within 3 months.","text":"$13 within 3 months.","html":"$13 within 3 months."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059625320,"gmtCreate":1654359256960,"gmtModify":1676535436113,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"PLTR worth to invest","listText":"PLTR worth to invest","text":"PLTR worth to invest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059625320","repostId":"2240194962","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059077965,"gmtCreate":1654270945157,"gmtModify":1676535423460,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059077965","repostId":"2240267835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240267835","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654270459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240267835?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-03 23:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240267835","media":"金融界","summary":"JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>JPMorgan released its monthly list of analysts' top stock picks, which also added a new stock.</p><p>Auto auction platform ACV Auctions was named to the list as a growth stock. JPMorgan doesn't list any stocks to remove from the list, which is compiled monthly by analysts based on their best stock picks.</p><p>All stocks on the bank's \"Analyst Watch List\" have an Overweight rating and are recommended for growth or value strategies, except for one stock pick in the short term:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC). Analyst Vivek Juneja is bullish on Bank of America because the bank is very sensitive to rising interest rates.</p><p>Here are JPMorgan's top ten stock picks for June:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3483ba35883643fbae0eb07f156b99da\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Newly selected ACV Auctions is down more than 50% this year, but analyst Rajat GuPTA said the company's appeal lies in its strong balance sheet and the fact that although the company's earnings outlook is less uncertain, it also follows other tech stocks. The fact that stocks all fell.</p><p>Popular among Wall Street analysts this week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Also on the list. JPMorgan has a $4,000 price target on the stock, implying more than 66% upside from its closing price on Tuesday.</p><p>In this list, the medical sector basically has more stocks on the list than other sectors, except for the consumer sector, which is comparable to it. Growth stock pick Eli Lilly, the largest healthcare stock by market capitalization, has risen 13% this year, while JPMorgan analysts see 8% upside potential.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLAY\">Relay Therapeutics</a>Is another selected healthcare stock and value stock. JPMorgan has given a price target of $47, implying an upside of 188% for the stock.</p><p>In addition, other stocks on the list also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYW\">Signature Bank</a>, McDonald's, Honeywell, Alleghany Technologies and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>。</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-03 23:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>JPMorgan released its monthly list of analysts' top stock picks, which also added a new stock.</p><p>Auto auction platform ACV Auctions was named to the list as a growth stock. JPMorgan doesn't list any stocks to remove from the list, which is compiled monthly by analysts based on their best stock picks.</p><p>All stocks on the bank's \"Analyst Watch List\" have an Overweight rating and are recommended for growth or value strategies, except for one stock pick in the short term:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC). Analyst Vivek Juneja is bullish on Bank of America because the bank is very sensitive to rising interest rates.</p><p>Here are JPMorgan's top ten stock picks for June:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3483ba35883643fbae0eb07f156b99da\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Newly selected ACV Auctions is down more than 50% this year, but analyst Rajat GuPTA said the company's appeal lies in its strong balance sheet and the fact that although the company's earnings outlook is less uncertain, it also follows other tech stocks. The fact that stocks all fell.</p><p>Popular among Wall Street analysts this week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Also on the list. JPMorgan has a $4,000 price target on the stock, implying more than 66% upside from its closing price on Tuesday.</p><p>In this list, the medical sector basically has more stocks on the list than other sectors, except for the consumer sector, which is comparable to it. Growth stock pick Eli Lilly, the largest healthcare stock by market capitalization, has risen 13% this year, while JPMorgan analysts see 8% upside potential.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLAY\">Relay Therapeutics</a>Is another selected healthcare stock and value stock. JPMorgan has given a price target of $47, implying an upside of 188% for the stock.</p><p>In addition, other stocks on the list also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYW\">Signature Bank</a>, McDonald's, Honeywell, Alleghany Technologies and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>。</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml\">金融界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","ACVA":"ACV Auctions Inc."},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240267835","content_text":"JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每月根据其最佳选股编制而成的。该行“分析师关注名单”中的所有股票都获得了增持评级，都因成长或价值策略而被推荐，但只有短期内的一支选股除外：美国银行（BAC）。分析师Vivek Juneja看好美银，是因这家银行对利率上升非常敏感。以下就是JPMorgan六月份的十大最佳选股：新入选股ACV Auctions今年下跌了逾50%，但分析师Rajat GuPTA表示，该公司的吸引力在于其强劲的资产负债表，以及尽管该公司的盈利前景没那么不确定，但也随其他科技股齐跌的这一事实。本周在华尔街分析师中颇受欢迎的亚马逊也榜上有名。JPMorgan对该股的目标价为4000美元，这意味着该股较其周二收盘价还有超66%的上涨空间。在此名单中，医疗板块上榜的股票基本上比其他板块都多，除了与之旗鼓相当的消费板块。成长型选股Eli Lilly则是市值最大的医疗保健股，今年已上涨13%，而JPMorgan分析师认为还有8%的上涨潜力。Relay Therapeutics是另一支入选的医疗保健股和价值股，JPMorgan给予的目标价为47美元，意味着该股的上涨空间达188%。此外，其他上榜的股票还包括了Signature Bank、McDonald’s、Honeywell、Alleghany Technologies和Workday。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":1,"ACVA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026540751,"gmtCreate":1653405010673,"gmtModify":1676535276032,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026540751","repostId":"1105338908","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026550251,"gmtCreate":1653403826473,"gmtModify":1676535275718,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026550251","repostId":"1194936946","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021026751,"gmtCreate":1652977011773,"gmtModify":1676535200431,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TSLA stock price decreasing&nbsp;","listText":"TSLA stock price decreasing&nbsp;","text":"TSLA stock price decreasing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021026751","repostId":"1135356620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021028916,"gmtCreate":1652976687335,"gmtModify":1676535200394,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021028916","repostId":"1182742214","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182742214","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652969715,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182742214?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 22:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stocks Remained High in Morning Trading, with Palantir and AMC Rising Over 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182742214","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3adfc3bbb941396b4011a499cacbfa8\" tg-width=\"319\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stocks Remained High in Morning Trading, with Palantir and AMC Rising Over 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stocks Remained High in Morning Trading, with Palantir and AMC Rising Over 2%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-19 22:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3adfc3bbb941396b4011a499cacbfa8\" tg-width=\"319\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182742214","content_text":"Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065251087,"gmtCreate":1652202335949,"gmtModify":1676535051383,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Terrible&nbsp;","listText":"Terrible&nbsp;","text":"Terrible","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065251087","repostId":"2234766091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2234766091","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1652183520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2234766091?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-10 19:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks repeat the Internet bubble crisis? When will the sell-off stop?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234766091","media":"智通财经网","summary":"市场对美国经济前景的担忧加剧，周一标普500指数失守4000点大关，为2021年4月以来首次，纳指重创超4%。在悲观的市场环境下，曾红极一时的Meme 股惨遭“大屠杀”。追踪Meme 股的Solact","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Market concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy have intensified. On Monday, the S&P 500 index fell below the 4,000-point mark for the first time since April 2021, and the Nasdaq hit more than 4%.</p><p>In a pessimistic market environment, the once popular Meme stocks were \"massacred\".</p><p>All 25 stocks in the Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index, which tracks Meme stocks, fell at least 3% on Monday, with the biggest decliners being Palantir and Rivian, whose shares fell more than 20% in a day. You can see that overvalued stocks have fallen the most:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6132c4c95154b7fcaefde612a7f37fbf\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that ARK Innovation, the flagship fund of Sister Mumu<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>Also hit hard. During the first 12 months of the pandemic period, because of the impact on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) and other successful bets, ARK yields 300% above the broader market. After Monday's sell-off, ARK's gains relative to the S&P 500 over the past five years were erased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14a21b4dbe4eb2eac04bfb3bafa93cb\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This decline in U.S. stocks is reminiscent of the Internet bubble crisis in 2000, when the highest-valued stocks fell sharply, while a large number of previously neglected and stable companies successfully stabilized their stock prices. Does this sell-off mean a repeat of the Internet bubble crisis?</p><p>Internet bubble crisis repeats itself?</p><p>Bloomberg columnist John Authers pointed out that COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and high global inflation provided strong catalysts for the stock market sell-off, factors that did not exist in 2000. But the latest sell-off has been largely valuation-driven and looks similar to the 2000 dot-com crisis.</p><p>The following chart shows the P/E difference between the information technology sector of the S&P 500 Index and the S&P 500 Index:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a83f4a5ffc5d5edcd8c37377191a9f0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The similarities are obvious. The extreme stage of both cases began when the Federal Reserve was unexpectedly forced to ease monetary policy (the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management Corporation in the United States in 1998 and COVID-19 pandemic in 2000). At the same time, from the perspective of expected P/E, the similarity between the two extremes is higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771c4490197ddce674670f800cabd1d6\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On top of that, the harder stocks that are too expensive have been hit in the recent selloff. The chart below shows the performance of the cheapest 20% of stocks worldwide relative to the most expensive 20% since 2003. Returns on low-valued stocks have soared recently relative to high-valued stocks (the chart does not update Monday's move).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d900e7e1d7b0ecb0c576fb998b0e6866\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">Societe Generale</a>Andrew Lapthorne, chief quantitative strategist, provides a chart of the performance of the most expensive and cheapest stocks in the U.S. and Europe over the past year, showing how the two stocks diverged amid a sell-off wave. It can be seen that the fluctuation of low-valuation stocks is relatively small.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3800a77586502550fe348d8e0cefcd9\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In Monday's decline, the trends of different sectors diverged. The S&P 500 consumer staples sector rose slightly despite sharp losses in Meme stocks and technology stocks. 73 S&P 500 constituent stocks bucked the trend and rose. Among them, consumer giants with well-known brands such as Parker and Sharpie<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWL\">Neway</a>(NWL.US) rose 7.92%.</p><p>In addition to valuation, the market also focuses on the profitability of enterprises. The Russell 2000 and S&P 600, the two most watched U.S. small business indexes, have an important difference. The Russell Index is based entirely on market capitalization, and it includes companies ranked from 1001 to 3000. All constituents of the S&P 600 must be profitable.</p><p>When the Russell 2000 index leads, it's usually a sign of high speculative sentiment in the market. The S&P 600 lead shows that investors are much more conservative. Currently, the Russell 2000 is far underperforming the S&P 600:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d478986a3462502cb15d78dda119d63\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>When will the sell-off stop?</p><p>Bloomberg's Authers said there was no doubt that the volatility was mostly related to valuation. This explains why the stock market has fallen sharply despite the good performance of corporate earnings reports in the past few weeks. Two key questions remain: what causes it and when does it stop?</p><p>For years, bears like Authers have warned that stocks look too expensive and are vulnerable to rising bond yields. These warnings have finally come true. The Fed valuation model suggests that the P/E of stocks should be a function of bond yields. The lower the bond yield, the higher the valuation investors can buy stocks.</p><p>In the 1990s, the relationship seemed strong. In this century, such cases are even rarer. But surprisingly, the rise in yields over the past few months has almost perfectly overlapped with the plunge in P/E. It is the inflationary shock, coupled with growing awareness that the Fed will have to rate hike, that has prompted investors to be skeptical about the high valuations of stocks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8308d07887313d8c596c32c2c8efb1ef\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Authers said,<b>The uncertainty of interest rates is at least as responsible for the sell-off as the rise in interest rates.</b>The growing discussion of the magnitude of the Fed's rate hike makes it difficult to determine valuation multiples for stocks. This uncertainty was supposed to disappear by the end of the year, but unfortunately it's hard to see it resolved by the end of the year.</p><p>The Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE), a long-term gauge of stocks admired by Robert Shiller of Yale University, suggests that if interest rates continue to rise, shares could fall further. As you can see from the chart below, the recent sell-off has significantly lowered CAPE, but it is still only slightly below the level on the eve of the Great Crash of 1929:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786dcc8f652dbb991b2d1f8e9c78bcc2\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CAPE has never returned to its post-Great Crash lows, and there is no reason to think it will this time. However, if interest rates continue to rise, already expensive stocks are more likely to fall.</p><p>Authers believes,<b>If U.S. inflation is brought under control relatively quickly and there is no stagflation either, it will be easier to justify a stock's high valuation. If economic conditions deteriorate, negative growth and higher inflation occur, then the market will fall further.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks repeat the Internet bubble crisis? When will the sell-off stop?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks repeat the Internet bubble crisis? When will the sell-off stop?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-10 19:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Market concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy have intensified. On Monday, the S&P 500 index fell below the 4,000-point mark for the first time since April 2021, and the Nasdaq hit more than 4%.</p><p>In a pessimistic market environment, the once popular Meme stocks were \"massacred\".</p><p>All 25 stocks in the Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index, which tracks Meme stocks, fell at least 3% on Monday, with the biggest decliners being Palantir and Rivian, whose shares fell more than 20% in a day. You can see that overvalued stocks have fallen the most:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6132c4c95154b7fcaefde612a7f37fbf\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Zhitong Finance APP learned that ARK Innovation, the flagship fund of Sister Mumu<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>Also hit hard. During the first 12 months of the pandemic period, because of the impact on<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) and other successful bets, ARK yields 300% above the broader market. After Monday's sell-off, ARK's gains relative to the S&P 500 over the past five years were erased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14a21b4dbe4eb2eac04bfb3bafa93cb\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This decline in U.S. stocks is reminiscent of the Internet bubble crisis in 2000, when the highest-valued stocks fell sharply, while a large number of previously neglected and stable companies successfully stabilized their stock prices. Does this sell-off mean a repeat of the Internet bubble crisis?</p><p>Internet bubble crisis repeats itself?</p><p>Bloomberg columnist John Authers pointed out that COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and high global inflation provided strong catalysts for the stock market sell-off, factors that did not exist in 2000. But the latest sell-off has been largely valuation-driven and looks similar to the 2000 dot-com crisis.</p><p>The following chart shows the P/E difference between the information technology sector of the S&P 500 Index and the S&P 500 Index:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a83f4a5ffc5d5edcd8c37377191a9f0\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The similarities are obvious. The extreme stage of both cases began when the Federal Reserve was unexpectedly forced to ease monetary policy (the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management Corporation in the United States in 1998 and COVID-19 pandemic in 2000). At the same time, from the perspective of expected P/E, the similarity between the two extremes is higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771c4490197ddce674670f800cabd1d6\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On top of that, the harder stocks that are too expensive have been hit in the recent selloff. The chart below shows the performance of the cheapest 20% of stocks worldwide relative to the most expensive 20% since 2003. Returns on low-valued stocks have soared recently relative to high-valued stocks (the chart does not update Monday's move).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d900e7e1d7b0ecb0c576fb998b0e6866\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">Societe Generale</a>Andrew Lapthorne, chief quantitative strategist, provides a chart of the performance of the most expensive and cheapest stocks in the U.S. and Europe over the past year, showing how the two stocks diverged amid a sell-off wave. It can be seen that the fluctuation of low-valuation stocks is relatively small.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3800a77586502550fe348d8e0cefcd9\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In Monday's decline, the trends of different sectors diverged. The S&P 500 consumer staples sector rose slightly despite sharp losses in Meme stocks and technology stocks. 73 S&P 500 constituent stocks bucked the trend and rose. Among them, consumer giants with well-known brands such as Parker and Sharpie<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWL\">Neway</a>(NWL.US) rose 7.92%.</p><p>In addition to valuation, the market also focuses on the profitability of enterprises. The Russell 2000 and S&P 600, the two most watched U.S. small business indexes, have an important difference. The Russell Index is based entirely on market capitalization, and it includes companies ranked from 1001 to 3000. All constituents of the S&P 600 must be profitable.</p><p>When the Russell 2000 index leads, it's usually a sign of high speculative sentiment in the market. The S&P 600 lead shows that investors are much more conservative. Currently, the Russell 2000 is far underperforming the S&P 600:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d478986a3462502cb15d78dda119d63\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>When will the sell-off stop?</p><p>Bloomberg's Authers said there was no doubt that the volatility was mostly related to valuation. This explains why the stock market has fallen sharply despite the good performance of corporate earnings reports in the past few weeks. Two key questions remain: what causes it and when does it stop?</p><p>For years, bears like Authers have warned that stocks look too expensive and are vulnerable to rising bond yields. These warnings have finally come true. The Fed valuation model suggests that the P/E of stocks should be a function of bond yields. The lower the bond yield, the higher the valuation investors can buy stocks.</p><p>In the 1990s, the relationship seemed strong. In this century, such cases are even rarer. But surprisingly, the rise in yields over the past few months has almost perfectly overlapped with the plunge in P/E. It is the inflationary shock, coupled with growing awareness that the Fed will have to rate hike, that has prompted investors to be skeptical about the high valuations of stocks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8308d07887313d8c596c32c2c8efb1ef\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Authers said,<b>The uncertainty of interest rates is at least as responsible for the sell-off as the rise in interest rates.</b>The growing discussion of the magnitude of the Fed's rate hike makes it difficult to determine valuation multiples for stocks. This uncertainty was supposed to disappear by the end of the year, but unfortunately it's hard to see it resolved by the end of the year.</p><p>The Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE), a long-term gauge of stocks admired by Robert Shiller of Yale University, suggests that if interest rates continue to rise, shares could fall further. As you can see from the chart below, the recent sell-off has significantly lowered CAPE, but it is still only slightly below the level on the eve of the Great Crash of 1929:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786dcc8f652dbb991b2d1f8e9c78bcc2\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CAPE has never returned to its post-Great Crash lows, and there is no reason to think it will this time. However, if interest rates continue to rise, already expensive stocks are more likely to fall.</p><p>Authers believes,<b>If U.S. inflation is brought under control relatively quickly and there is no stagflation either, it will be easier to justify a stock's high valuation. If economic conditions deteriorate, negative growth and higher inflation occur, then the market will fall further.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/721222.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c850f815bf6878182aa7c5d4b0147f56","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/721222.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2234766091","content_text":"市场对美国经济前景的担忧加剧，周一标普500指数失守4000点大关，为2021年4月以来首次，纳指重创超4%。在悲观的市场环境下，曾红极一时的Meme 股惨遭“大屠杀”。追踪Meme 股的Solactive Roundhill  Meme股票指数中的所有25只股票周一均下跌至少3%，其中，跌幅最大的是Palantir和Rivian，它们的股价在一天内下跌了20%以上。可以看到，估值过高的股票跌幅最大：智通财经APP了解到，木头姐旗下的旗舰基金ARK Innovation  Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF同样惨遭重创。在疫情时期的前12个月，因为对特斯拉(TSLA.US)等公司的成功押注，ARK的收益率较大盘高出300%。在周一的抛售之后，ARK过去五年相对于标普500指数的涨幅都被抹去了。此次的美股下跌让人想起2000年互联网泡沫危机，当时估值最高的股票大幅下挫，而大量此前不受重视的稳健公司成功地稳住了股价。本轮抛售是否意味着互联网泡沫危机重演?互联网泡沫危机重演?彭博专栏作家John  Authers指出，新冠疫情、俄乌冲突和全球高通胀为股市抛售提供了强劲的催化剂，这些因素在2000年是不存在的。但最近一轮抛售主要是由估值驱动的，看起来与2000年互联网泡沫危机很相似。下图展示了标普500指数信息技术板块与标普500指数的市盈率之差:相似之处显而易见。两种情况的极端阶段都始于美联储意外被迫放松货币政策之时(1998年美国长期资本管理公司的崩溃和2000年的新冠疫情)。与此同时，从预期市盈率的角度来看，两种极端情况的相似度更高了。最重要的是，最近的抛售潮中，过于昂贵的股票遭受的打击越大。下图显示了自2003年以来，全球最便宜的20%股票相对于最昂贵的20%股票的表现。相对于高估值股票，低估值股票的回报率最近大幅飙升(图表没有更新周一的走势)。法国兴业银行首席量化策略师Andrew  Lapthorne提供了过去一年美国和欧洲最昂贵和最便宜股票的表现图表，显示了这两种股票在抛售潮中的分化走势。可以看到，低估值股波动相对较小。在周一的下跌中，不同板块的走势分化。尽管Meme股和科技股大跌，标准普尔500必需消费品板块小幅上涨。73只标普500指数成分股逆势上涨，其中，拥有Parker、Sharpie等知名品牌的消费巨头纽威(NWL.US)涨7.92%。除了估值外，市场也关注企业的盈利能力。罗素2000指数和标普600指数这两个最受关注的美国小型企业指数有一个重要的不同之处。罗素指数完全基于市值，它包括排名从1001到3000的公司。标普600指数的所有成分股都必须盈利。当罗素2000指数领先时，这通常是市场投机情绪高涨的迹象。标普600指数领先则表明，投资者要保守得多。目前，罗素2000指数的表现远逊于标普600指数:抛售何时停止？彭博的Authers表示，毫无疑问，此次波动主要与估值有关。这就解释了为什么在过去几周公布的企业财报表现良好的情况下，股市仍大幅下挫。两个关键问题仍然存在:是什么原因造成的，何时停止?多年来，Authers等看跌人士一直警告称，股票看起来过于昂贵，而且很容易受到债券收益率上升的影响。这些警告终于应验了。美联储估值模型(Fed  model)表明，股票的市盈率应该是债券收益率的函数。债券收益率越低，投资者购买股票的估值就越高。在 1990  年代，这种关系似乎很牢固。在本世纪，这样的情况更少。但令人惊讶的是，过去几个月收益率的上升几乎与市盈率的暴跌完美重叠。正是通胀冲击，加上人们越来越意识到美联储将不得不加息，促使投资者对股票的高估值持怀疑态度:Authers表示，利率的不确定性至少和利率的上升一样，是造成抛售的原因。关于美联储加息幅度的讨论越来越多，这使得确定股票的估值倍数变得困难。这种不确定性本应在年底前消失，但不幸的是，很难看到它在年底前得到解决。耶鲁大学罗伯特·席勒(Robert  Shiller)推崇的股票长期指标——周期调整市盈率(CAPE)表明，如果利率继续上升，股价可能会进一步下跌。从下图中可以看到，最近的抛售明显降低了CAPE，但仍仅略低于1929年大崩盘前夕的水平:CAPE再也没有回到大崩盘后的低点，而且没有理由认为这次会这样。但是，如果利率继续上升，本就昂贵的股票更容易下跌。Authers认为，如果美国通胀相对较快地得到控制，而且也没有出现滞胀，那么就更容易证明股票的高估值是合理的。如果经济状况恶化，出现负增长和更高的通胀，那么市场还会进一步下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065859253,"gmtCreate":1652175000072,"gmtModify":1676535045873,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What's wrong?","listText":"What's wrong?","text":"What's wrong?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065859253","repostId":"1194150041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194150041","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652174263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194150041?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-10 17:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla recalls vehicles again, totaling 129,960 vehicles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194150041","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月10日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局：特斯拉正在召回某些运行某些固件版本的2021-2022款Model S、Model X，2022款Model 3和Model Y，共计129,960辆。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>May 10, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Tesla is recalling certain 2021-2022 Model S, Model X, 2022 Model 3 and Model Y running certain firmware versions, totaling 129,960 vehicles.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla recalls vehicles again, totaling 129,960 vehicles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla recalls vehicles again, totaling 129,960 vehicles\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-10 17:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>May 10, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Tesla is recalling certain 2021-2022 Model S, Model X, 2022 Model 3 and Model Y running certain firmware versions, totaling 129,960 vehicles.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b3bf71a5b88b7052f7881987e62de7","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194150041","content_text":"5月10日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局：特斯拉正在召回某些运行某些固件版本的2021-2022款Model S、Model X，2022款Model 3和Model Y，共计129,960辆。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062728915,"gmtCreate":1652109511637,"gmtModify":1676535031492,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OMG","listText":"OMG","text":"OMG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062728915","repostId":"1104099384","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104099384","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652102839,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104099384?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104099384","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter result","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.</p><p>Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce40b8beee219eb6a82abb7274b16d6\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.</p><p>For the March quarter, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir </a> posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.</p><p>On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.</p><p>The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.</p><p>For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.</p><p>Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-09 21:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.</p><p>Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce40b8beee219eb6a82abb7274b16d6\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.</p><p>For the March quarter, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir </a> posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.</p><p>On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.</p><p>The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.</p><p>For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.</p><p>Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104099384","content_text":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.For the March quarter, Palantir  posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9068237608,"gmtCreate":1651784783004,"gmtModify":1676534966786,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068237608","repostId":"1146951116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146951116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651761650,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146951116?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-05 22:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Big Short Warning: Brace for the Biggest Bear Market of a Lifetime","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146951116","media":"金十数据","summary":"投资人David Wright警告，美股大熊市才刚刚开始……曾安稳度过数次大跌的投资人David Wright最近表示，他正在为一生中最大的熊市做准备。尽管在2008年，全球金融危机引发了自大萧条以来","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Investor David Wright warned that the big bear market in the U.S. stock market has just begun... David Wright, an investor who has weathered several sharp drops, recently said that he is preparing for the biggest bear market in his life.</p><p>Although in 2008, the global financial crisis triggered the worst market panic since the Great Depression, the fund run by David Wright, Sierra Tactical All Asset Fund, lost little money. Even during the 2020 pandemic, the fund's losses were relatively small. Wright said that when the dot-com bubble burst 20 years ago, another private fund he managed didn't lose a penny.</p><p>But Wright, 78, said in an interview that none of these periods can compare with the future. Stocks and bonds, which have fallen sharply in 2022, will fall further in the future:</p><p>\"I believe we're in the middle of the biggest bear market I've ever seen. This bear market has only just started, and there will be a big drop to follow.\" What underpins Wright's bearish is not the Fed's sharp rate hike, high inflation, or the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the investor frenzy that has fueled a series of spikes from meme stocks to cryptocurrencies over the past few years. Rally in stocks helped U.S. household wealth surge to a record $150 trillion, more than six times the size of the U.S. economy, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve. Wright says:</p><p>\"No other country in the world has as much of its net wealth heavily invested in stocks as the United States. We are at the peak of complacency.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f337272202192681e2bfe668a6743007\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wright didn't specify how much he thought he would lose from holding bonds and stocks in the future, but noted that the sharp pullback in the 1970s and 1980s didn't end until the market's P/E fell below 10%. Currently, the post-December P/E for the S&P 500 has fallen from 32 in March 2021 to 21, still above the average of 19 over the past 20 years.</p><p>Nowadays, more and more short sellers are making similar claims. Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, sharp rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and soaring inflation, there are many issues to worry about: the S&P 500 has fallen 12% this year, while the Nasdaq has fallen into a technical bear market after falling more than 20% from its peak in November; The major bond benchmark index fell more than 10%.</p><p>And this Sierra fund held less than 3% of U.S. stocks at the end of April. More than half of the fund is cash. Fixed-rated bonds account for just 1% of its holdings, while commodities account for more than 9%. The remainder of the portfolio is spread across assets including floating rate bonds, foreign equities, and major limited partnerships.</p><p>With such an asset allocation, in 2022, the fund fell 2.3%, surpassing 91% of its peers.</p><p>The fund uses a computer model to set trailing stops on its holdings. Once the price drops to these preset levels, the fund liquidates its holdings and moves to cash or other assets that are trending upwards. While this conservative approach helps to control losses from holding stocks and bonds when the market is down, it can also hurt returns when the market is rising in a straight line.</p><p>This has been a common occurrence since the 2008 crisis. Over the past five years, the fund has returned 2.4% annually, compared to the average of 5% for its peers. During the same period, a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds returned 9% per year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big Short Warning: Brace for the Biggest Bear Market of a Lifetime</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig Short Warning: Brace for the Biggest Bear Market of a Lifetime\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-05 22:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Investor David Wright warned that the big bear market in the U.S. stock market has just begun... David Wright, an investor who has weathered several sharp drops, recently said that he is preparing for the biggest bear market in his life.</p><p>Although in 2008, the global financial crisis triggered the worst market panic since the Great Depression, the fund run by David Wright, Sierra Tactical All Asset Fund, lost little money. Even during the 2020 pandemic, the fund's losses were relatively small. Wright said that when the dot-com bubble burst 20 years ago, another private fund he managed didn't lose a penny.</p><p>But Wright, 78, said in an interview that none of these periods can compare with the future. Stocks and bonds, which have fallen sharply in 2022, will fall further in the future:</p><p>\"I believe we're in the middle of the biggest bear market I've ever seen. This bear market has only just started, and there will be a big drop to follow.\" What underpins Wright's bearish is not the Fed's sharp rate hike, high inflation, or the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the investor frenzy that has fueled a series of spikes from meme stocks to cryptocurrencies over the past few years. Rally in stocks helped U.S. household wealth surge to a record $150 trillion, more than six times the size of the U.S. economy, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve. Wright says:</p><p>\"No other country in the world has as much of its net wealth heavily invested in stocks as the United States. We are at the peak of complacency.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f337272202192681e2bfe668a6743007\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wright didn't specify how much he thought he would lose from holding bonds and stocks in the future, but noted that the sharp pullback in the 1970s and 1980s didn't end until the market's P/E fell below 10%. Currently, the post-December P/E for the S&P 500 has fallen from 32 in March 2021 to 21, still above the average of 19 over the past 20 years.</p><p>Nowadays, more and more short sellers are making similar claims. Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, sharp rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and soaring inflation, there are many issues to worry about: the S&P 500 has fallen 12% this year, while the Nasdaq has fallen into a technical bear market after falling more than 20% from its peak in November; The major bond benchmark index fell more than 10%.</p><p>And this Sierra fund held less than 3% of U.S. stocks at the end of April. More than half of the fund is cash. Fixed-rated bonds account for just 1% of its holdings, while commodities account for more than 9%. The remainder of the portfolio is spread across assets including floating rate bonds, foreign equities, and major limited partnerships.</p><p>With such an asset allocation, in 2022, the fund fell 2.3%, surpassing 91% of its peers.</p><p>The fund uses a computer model to set trailing stops on its holdings. Once the price drops to these preset levels, the fund liquidates its holdings and moves to cash or other assets that are trending upwards. While this conservative approach helps to control losses from holding stocks and bonds when the market is down, it can also hurt returns when the market is rising in a straight line.</p><p>This has been a common occurrence since the 2008 crisis. Over the past five years, the fund has returned 2.4% annually, compared to the average of 5% for its peers. During the same period, a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds returned 9% per year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/93627\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/93627","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146951116","content_text":"投资人David Wright警告，美股大熊市才刚刚开始……曾安稳度过数次大跌的投资人David Wright最近表示，他正在为一生中最大的熊市做准备。尽管在2008年，全球金融危机引发了自大萧条以来最严重的市场恐慌，但David Wright执掌的基金Sierra Tactical All Asset Fund几乎没有亏损。即使在2020年疫情期间，该基金的损失也相对较小。Wright表示，在20年前互联网泡沫破灭时，他管理的另一支私人基金也没有损失一分钱。但现年78岁的Wright在接受采访时表示，上述这些时期都无法与未来相比。已经在2022年大幅下跌的股票和债券，未来还会进一步下跌：“我相信我们正处于我有生以来最大的熊市中。这场熊市才刚开局不久，接下来还会一波大跌。”支撑Wright看跌的不是美联储大幅加息、高通胀或俄乌冲突，而是在过去几年中，投资者的狂热推动了从meme股票到加密货币的一系列飙升。根据美联储汇编的数据，股市上涨帮助美国家庭财富激增至创纪录的150万亿美元，达到了美国经济规模的六倍多。Wright说：“世界上没有其他国家像美国一样，将如此多的净财富重仓在股票上。我们正处于自满情绪的高峰期。”Wright没有具体说明他认为未来持有债券和股票会有多大的损失，但他指出，1970年代和1980年代的大幅回落直到市场的市盈率降至10%以下才结束。目前，标准普尔500指数的12月后市盈率已从2021年3月的32降至21，仍高于过去20年19的平均水平。如今，越来越多的空头提出类似主张。在俄乌冲突、美联储大幅加息、通胀率飙升之下，有很多问题值得担忧：标普500指数今年已经下跌了12%，而纳指在从11月的峰值下跌超过20%后陷入技术性熊市；主要债券基准指数下跌超过10%。而这只Sierra基金截至4月底持有的美国股票不到3%。该基金的一半以上是现金。固定评级债券仅占其持股的1%，而大宗商品则占9%以上。投资组合的其余部分分布在包括浮动利率债券、外国股票和主要有限合伙企业在内的资产中。在这样的资产配置下，在2022年，该基金下跌了2.3%，超过了91%的同行。该基金使用计算机模型为其持股设置追踪止损。一旦价格跌至这些预设水平，基金就会清算所持资产，并转向现金或其他呈上涨趋势的资产。虽然这种保守的做法有助于控制市场低迷时，持有股票和债券的损失，但当市场直线上涨时，它也会损害回报率。自2008年危机以来，这种情况屡见不鲜。过去五年，该基金的年回报率为2.4%，而同行的平均回报率为5%。而同期，由60%股票和40%债券组成的投资组合每年的回报率为9%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063119898,"gmtCreate":1651428682175,"gmtModify":1676534904375,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies&nbsp;","listText":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies&nbsp;","text":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063119898","repostId":"1117500727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060591634,"gmtCreate":1651160829876,"gmtModify":1676534861784,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094645548234760","idStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get to know better&nbsp;","listText":"Get to know better&nbsp;","text":"Get to know better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060591634","repostId":"1116937204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116937204","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651126440,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116937204?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 14:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Understand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116937204","media":"追寻价值之路","summary":"不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support stock prices to a certain extent or even push stock prices up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies.<b>Core conclusions</b></p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest. After years of development, it has become a common means in the capital market. Especially in the last ten years, the scale of repurchase by listed companies in the United States has soared sharply.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the U.S. stock market, this article discusses and sorts out issues related to stock repurchases. The main contents are divided into five parts:</p><p>The first part introduces the basic concept of stock repurchase, including four common ways of repurchase and the motivation of stock repurchase; The second part discusses the related financial treatment of stock repurchase, involving whether to choose the financial treatment of canceling shares after repurchase and why some enterprises have negative net assets after repurchase; The third part sorts out the logic that stock repurchases are conducive to stock price rises. One is to directly increase the demand for company stocks, and the other is to improve financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies. In addition, judging from the performance of U.S. stocks, stock repurchases It is an important part of stock price yields, and the impact of repurchases on price-to-book ratios is more significant than P/E; The fourth part discusses the potential risks of stock repurchase, mainly including the decline of market liquidity and the high financial leverage risk of listed companies caused by repurchase; The fifth part is an introduction to the current repurchase situation of A shares and the experience of US stock repurchase on A shares. Risk warning: Repurchases increase financial leverage risks, historical experience does not represent the future, the macro economy is less than expected, and overseas markets fluctuate significantly</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. Introduction to the basic concepts of stock repurchase</b></p><p><b>1.1 What is a share repurchase?</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the behavior of listed companies using cash and other means to repurchase a certain amount of outstanding stocks of the company from the stock market, which will reduce the number of outstanding stocks of the company, thereby achieving market value management, equity incentives, and stabilizing stock prices. and other positive effects.</p><p>There are two main sources of funds for enterprises to repurchase stocks: one is internal funds, including net profits obtained from daily operations of enterprises or cash sources such as government tax cuts and tax rebates, as well as self-owned funds such as the original retained earnings of enterprises; The second is external funds, which borrow money and add leverage through bond issuance and other means to achieve share repurchase.</p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest, especially after the 1980s. Previously, because western European and American countries advocated the theory of maintaining corporate capital, and the repurchase behavior itself was suspected of market manipulation, few companies conducted stock repurchases. It was not until the 1980s that stock repurchases began to gradually develop. After more than 40 years of development, stock repurchase has become a common means in developed capital markets. It is widely used to optimize the capital structure, enhance the company's value, or send positive signals when the company's stock price is undervalued.</p><p><b>1.2 Four common ways of stock repurchase</b></p><p>According to the different methods of determining the repurchase price, stock repurchase can generally be divided into four basic methods: open market operation, cash offer repurchase, agreement repurchase and transferable sale right repurchase.</p><p>Open market repurchase is a popular stock repurchase method in the current US market. Listed companies that repurchase shares through the open market will directly repurchase shares in the open market at the current market price. Stock repurchases under this method are more flexible. Listed companies can freely decide factors such as the time and quantity of repurchases according to their own circumstances. Moreover, stock repurchases under this method do not need to pay additional premiums.</p><p>Another more common method of stock repurchase is offer repurchase. There are generally two pricing methods for listed companies to repurchase stocks through tender offers. One is to use a fixed price to issue an offer to shareholders within an agreed period to purchase a certain number of stocks. Listed companies generally choose this pricing method when they need a large number of company stocks in a short period of time. However, a sharp increase in demand in the short term will lead to paying a certain premium for repurchasing stocks. Another pricing method under tender offer repurchase is Dutch auction repurchase, which will give the company greater flexibility in the repurchase price, so it is also widely used. In Dutch auction repurchase, the listed company sets the range of repurchase price and the quantity planned to repurchase, and then shareholders express the number of shares they are willing to sell at a certain level within the price range. Finally, the listed company will summarize the wishes of all shareholders and repurchase shares according to the low to high price order until the established repurchase quantity of the listed company is reached.</p><p>Agreement buybacks are less transparent compared to open market buybacks and offer buybacks. Because under the agreement repurchase method, listed companies directly enter into private agreements with some shareholders to repurchase shares according to the price and quantity agreed in the agreement. This method is relatively free in terms of pricing, transaction time and payment method, and usually the negotiated price is lower than the market price.</p><p>Transferable right of sale repurchase is a special way of stock repurchase. The company that implements stock repurchase gives shareholders the right to sell their stocks to the company at a specific price within a certain period of time. Once this right is formed, it can be separated and traded with the attached stocks. Listed companies issue transferable authorizations to their shareholders, and shareholders who are unwilling to sell their shares can sell this right separately to meet the different demands of various shareholders.</p><p><b>1.3 Why Stock Repurchase?</b></p><p>The benefits of share repurchases are multifaceted. From the perspective of the company as a whole, whether it is internal or external funds to repurchase shares, it can improve the capital structure of the enterprise and reduce the cost of supervision and restraint on the company's management. The way of issuing bonds to repurchase shares can also make use of the tax shield effect of debts to achieve reasonable tax avoidance, and urge the management to focus on the debt repayment and long-term sustainable operation of the enterprise. For those shareholders who sell their stocks in the stock repurchase plan, they can sell their stocks to obtain liquidity. In addition, compared with the direct distribution of cash Dividend, since capital gains are generally not taxed or the tax rate is lower, effective tax avoidance can be achieved by distributing dividends through stock repurchase. Shareholders who still hold shares after the company implements the repurchase plan can also benefit. As the net capital of the enterprise will be significantly reduced after the completion of the stock repurchase, under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, the financial indicators such as the return on net assets, earnings per share, and net assets per share of the enterprise will all be significantly improved. If we classify the motivations of listed companies' stock repurchases, we can also classify them into the following four categories: one is financial motivation, the other is signal transmission appeal, the third is to reduce principal-agent risks, and the fourth is to increase company control to prevent hostile takeovers.</p><p><b>The financial motivation of listed companies to buy back shares is mainly related to their capital structure and dividend policy. Listed companies often buy back shares for financial reasons such as increasing earnings per share, improving capital structure and increasing shareholder wealth effect.</b>Specifically, the improvement of stock repurchase on the financial-related factors of listed companies is mainly reflected in four aspects:</p><p><b>First, improve the company's earnings per share.</b>Since buybacks will reduce the number of outstanding shares of listed companies, the decrease in the denominator when calculating earnings per share will directly lead to an increase in EPS, which may also increase the company's stock price.</p><p><b>Second, realize dividend tax avoidance and increase the shareholder wealth of listed companies.</b>Since the tax rate of cash dividends is higher than the tax rate of capital gains, cash return to shareholders by share repurchase instead of dividends can help shareholders achieve reasonable tax avoidance. In the PRC, the Dividend dividend income of individual investors whose shareholding period is less than one month is fully included in the taxable income, and the actual tax burden is 20%, but capital gains are temporarily exempted from income tax.</p><p><b>Thirdly, optimize the capital structure of the company and improve the value of the company through the tax shield effect.</b>No matter how the stock repurchase is carried out, it will reduce the company's owner's equity, and bond repurchase will even increase the company's debt, thus increasing the company's financial leverage ratio and producing a leverage effect. Therefore, for companies with low financial leverage, this can not only optimize the company's capital structure, but also make use of the tax shield effect brought by financing interest to improve the company's value.</p><p><b>Fourth, stock repurchases have high financial flexibility.</b>There are generally two ways for listed companies to return cash to shareholders: cash dividends and stock repurchases. However, the way of paying cash dividends usually makes shareholders expect future dividends, which requires the company to have stable cash flow. However, stock repurchase occurs occasionally. Listed companies can choose the amount, quantity, time, etc. of repurchase relatively freely under the stock repurchase method, which has great financial flexibility compared with the stock repurchase method.</p><p><b>The signal transmission appeal of stock repurchase is mainly based on the assumption of information asymmetry. Listed companies can transmit the signal to the market that the company's stock price is undervalued through stock repurchase, because the company will only carry out stock repurchase when it thinks that its stock price is undervalued. Sending a positive signal to the market in this way has a positive impact on the company's short-term operating income.</b></p><p><b>Share buybacks also help reduce principal-agent risk.</b>Because the management right and ownership of listed companies are separated, and the goals of agent and principal are not completely consistent, it may be that the principal can't clearly understand the goal bias of agent, thus causing the interests of principal to be damaged. Especially when the company's free cash flow is relatively abundant, the company's management may make over-investment or consumption for its own interests, thus encroaching on the interests of the company's shareholders. In this case, the company returns cash to shareholders through stock repurchase, which not only improves the efficiency of cash flow use, but also reduces agency costs and principal-agent risks.</p><p><b>Increasing control right through stock repurchase, preventing equity dilution and hostile takeover are also one of the motives of stock repurchase of listed companies.</b>In the 1980s, with the rise of leveraged mergers and acquisitions in the United States, hostile takeover activities gradually increased. In order to prevent companies from being hostile takeover, listed companies have repurchased shares to increase stock prices, reduce outstanding shares and resist hostile takeover. While there are fewer hostile takeovers now, using the repurchased shares for management's equity incentive program also helps avoid dilution.</p><p><b>2. Financial treatment of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>2.1 The difference between stock cancellation or not after share repurchase</b></p><p>For listed companies, after the stock repurchase is completed, the company can cancel the repurchased shares or keep the repurchased shares as \"treasury shares\".</p><p>The \"treasury shares\" retained by the company still belong to the issued shares, which are held by the company itself, and can be sold to the market at an appropriate time, issued convertible bonds or used as incentives for employees. However, the characteristics of \"treasury shares\" are similar to unissued stocks. \"Treasury shares\" have no voting rights, nor the right to pay dividends, and cannot be realized even after the company goes bankrupt. Therefore, \"treasury shares\" do not participate in the calculation of indicators such as earnings per share, return on net assets and net assets per share.</p><p><b>Therefore, after the stock repurchase is completed, whether the repurchased stocks are cancelled or not, it will not affect financial indicators such as earnings per share, net assets per share and return on net assets, because even if they are retained as \"treasury stocks\", these stocks will not participate in the calculation of these indicators.</b>From this perspective, there will be no big difference between cancelling and not canceling the repurchased shares for companies.</p><p><b>However, in most cases, enterprises will choose to keep the repurchased stocks as \"treasury stocks\" after the stock repurchase is completed.</b>We have counted the handling of stock repurchases of the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. Among them, 30 listed companies have chosen to repurchase stocks and retained \"treasury shares\", and the other 20 listed companies have chosen to cancel the repurchased stocks or have not carried out stock repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485e1f54b04ed2c89a5d83b631a23a53\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The reason why enterprises tend to keep \"treasury stocks\" is mainly because \"treasury stocks\" themselves can bring certain positive significance to enterprises.</b></p><p>First, it can provide the company with sufficient flexibility in terms of financing and reduce financing costs. Since \"treasury shares\" are still issued shares, the company can sell \"treasury shares\" when there is a financing need; Compared with allotment of shares or issuance of new shares, the cost of obtaining funds by selling \"treasury shares\" is lower, which can not only save the supervision and intermediary costs related to issuing shares, but also avoid selling at a discount when the market permits.</p><p>Second, it is conducive to the implementation of incentive plans for employees or management. \"Treasury shares\" are one of the important stock sources for companies to issue equity incentives to employees and management. Therefore, for U.S. listed companies, retaining \"treasury shares\" can facilitate the implementation of equity incentive plans, etc., and avoid the lack of sufficient shares. The source of shares makes the incentive plan unable to be implemented.</p><p>The third is to facilitate the company's mergers and acquisitions and prevent the company from suffering hostile takeover. Merger and acquisition through treasury share exchange can provide certain flexibility for the company's merger and acquisition behavior; In addition, the behavior of retaining \"treasury shares\" after the repurchase can also prevent the company from being hostile takeovers. On the one hand, the repurchase pushes up the stock price, which makes it more difficult for the acquirer. On the other hand, \"treasury shares\" can supplement the number of shares in circulation of the company. Provide buffer time for the company to deal with hostile takeovers.</p><p>Fourth, it is conducive to the stability of stock prices. When there is irrational fluctuation in the market, enterprises can stabilize the price fluctuation by adjusting the supply of outstanding stocks, stabilize the stock price, and avoid the company being greatly affected by irrational factors such as market sentiment.</p><p><b>2.2 How does repurchase lead to negative net assets of enterprises?</b></p><p>Among the benefits that stock repurchases can bring, a very important one is that stock repurchases can increase EPS and the company's overall ROE. This is mainly because stock repurchases will reduce the company's net capital, and a significant decline in the denominator will bring Significant improvements including EPS and ROE. In even more exaggerated circumstances, some U.S.-listed companies have repurchased a large number of issued shares in the form of bond repurchases, resulting in a situation where total liabilities are greater than total assets and negative net assets. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid.</p><p>So how do these listed companies in the United States make their net assets negative through buybacks?<b>The main reason behind this is that there is a huge difference between the book value of equity assets in the financial statements and the market value of stocks in the secondary market. The stock price in the secondary market will not be reflected in the balance sheet, so the book value of stocks and the market value are not equal. When enterprises repurchase, they mainly refer to the market value of stocks, so the cost of repurchasing stocks often has a premium relative to the book value. Therefore, whether it is transferred to treasury stocks after repurchase, used as a deduction item when calculating shareholders' equity, or retained earnings account is offset when cancelled after repurchase, as long as the premium on the cost of repurchased stocks is too large, it may lead to The retained earnings account turned negative, and even caused the company's overall net assets to show a negative value.</b></p><p>Take Starbucks Corporation, for example. In the annual report for fiscal year 2019 (from September 30, 2018 to September 30, 2019) released by Starbucks, the company's total assets dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018 to US $19.22 billion, but its total liabilities dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018. US $22.98 billion rose to US $25.45 billion, which means that Starbucks' net assets, that is, owner's equity, dropped from US $1.18 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-US $6.23 billion in fiscal year 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0772be7e56e10608ecbc5ec6b38ac32\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judging from the shareholder equity breakdown account in Starbucks' balance sheet, the main reason why the company's net assets were less than 0 in 2019 is that the retained earnings account has dropped significantly.</b>In fiscal year 2018, Starbucks' retained earnings still had a balance of nearly US $1.5 billion, but by the end of fiscal year 2019, retained earnings dropped sharply to-US $5.77 billion, which directly led to Starbucks' shareholders' equity turning negative significantly. Since then, the company's retained earnings account has been Maintain a negative state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec889287bc85df1b916c06e198a16507\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The main reason for the negative retained earnings is stock repurchases.</b>Take the first negative retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 as an example. During fiscal year 2019, Starbucks conducted a large number of stock repurchases, and the number of issued share capital dropped from 1.31 billion shares in fiscal year 2018 to 1.18 billion shares. The total share capital decreased by US $100,000, the capital reserve decreased by US $610 million, and the premium part of corporate stock repurchases offset retained earnings by as much as US $9.52 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of changes in owner's equity, the increase or decrease of Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 was mainly affected by changes in accounting policies, net profit, stock repurchases and cash dividends. If the impact of stock repurchases is not taken into account, changes in accounting policies and net profits will increase retained earnings by US $496 million and US $3.599 billion respectively. Even with a cash dividend of US $1.8 billion, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 will still be higher than that at the beginning of the period. increase. However, under the influence of stock repurchases, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 not only did not increase, but decreased significantly, and even experienced a large negative value, ultimately making net assets less than 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c366d6c37385579e78b67920cd8cf623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the financial treatment of shares repurchased and transferred to treasury shares, we can refer to the case of McDonald's Corporation. As early as fiscal year 2016, McDonald's net assets were already less than 0; Since then, McDonald's has continued to issue bonds to repurchase tradable shares and transfer them to treasury stock, resulting in a continuous decline in the company's net assets. As of the end of fiscal year 2019 (December 31, 2019), McDonald's total assets rose from US $32.8 billion at the end of the previous period to US $47.5 billion, while total liabilities also rose significantly from US $39.1 billion to US $55.7 billion. Therefore, McDonald's Shareholder equity dropped from-US $6.3 billion at the end of 2018 to-US $8.2 billion, a record low. Although the company's shareholders' equity has rebounded in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, it still remains negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d65757489198ea8fd29d1769560c54\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of the breakdown of shareholders' equity, the continued decline of McDonald's shareholders' equity in 2019 was mainly due to the continued rise in the cost of treasury shares.</b>The values of capital reserve, retained earnings and other comprehensive income accounts that affect shareholders' equity in fiscal year 2019 all increased compared with fiscal year 2018, while the equity account remained unchanged. Only the allowance item for treasury shares dropped from-61.5 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-66.3 billion US dollars (which means that the cost of purchasing treasury shares increased from 61.5 billion US dollars to 66.3 billion US dollars), and resulted in a significant decline in shareholders' equity. Although the cost of treasury shares continues to rise in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, due to the significant increase in capital reserves and retained earnings accounts, shareholders' equity as a whole has rebounded slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a6095fde99dbb62d4aed332b2ec0f00\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the statement of changes in owner's equity, in fiscal year 2019, McDonald's continued to repurchase 25 million shares, and the total repurchase cost reached US $4.98 billion; At the same time, 4.2 million treasury shares were used to complete the stock exercise subscription plan, and the amount of treasury shares transferred out was US $180 million. Therefore, as of the end of fiscal year 2019, McDonald's repurchased a total of 914 million treasury shares, and the cumulative total cost of repurchasing treasury shares rose from US $61.5 billion to US $66.3 billion, resulting in a continued decline in shareholder equity to-US $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1653e1d47f48f71ec3b559f0778ebed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Stock repurchases are conducive to driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>3.1 The main logic of buybacks driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>There are two main mechanisms for repurchases to promote the rise of stock prices. First, listed companies can directly increase the demand for the company's stocks to increase the stock price by repurchasing stocks, which is also the most direct channel for stock repurchases to have an impact.</b></p><p><b>In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, listed companies themselves have been a very important participant in the US stock market.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, between 2009 and 2021, among the major players in the equity market, ETF funds have accumulated a net purchase of US $2.77 trillion in stocks, and U.S. households and non-profit institutions have accumulated a net purchase of US $1.17 trillion. Mutual funds and other financial institutions have accumulated net sales of US $90.1 billion and US $2.27 trillion in equity assets respectively. The amount traded by non-financial companies to buy back shares has soared sharply in the past decade, with the cumulative amount of transactions in this part alone reaching nearly $5 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b3c3aacf75c2cbd431cf148c3a3c19\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120a876d16c099ebeb3de8eeb78c05d\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can assume that Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares and simulate its stock price performance before and after implementing the share repurchase to study the impact of the repurchase. According to the financial valuation model, the company's market value depends on indicators such as future cash flow or net profit, so the behavior of stock repurchase will not affect the company's total market value. We assume that before the repurchase, Company A had 20 billion outstanding shares, each worth 10 yuan, and the total market value was 200 billion yuan; This time, Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares. After the repurchase, there are still 16 billion shares in circulation. Since the total market value remains unchanged at 200 billion yuan, the price of each share will rise to 12.5 yuan, which is the same as the repurchase. Compared with before, the stock price rose by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8de2f35668d54b51facdda584daeebe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The second mechanism by which buybacks drive stock prices higher is by improving financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies.</b></p><p>Since Company A's repurchase behavior will not lead to changes in the company's net profit, the net profit before and after the repurchase is 50 billion yuan, so after the repurchase, Company A's EPS will rise from 2.5 yuan to 3.125 yuan, an increase of 25%.</p><p>The same is true for the stock market as a whole. Historical data shows that the trend of S&P 500 EPS is highly consistent with the trend of S&P 500 repurchase scale. From the trend point of view, the trend of S&P 500 Index EPS and repurchase scale has roughly gone through three stages since 2000. From 2000 to 2007, the index EPS increased slowly, and the scale of company repurchases also continued to increase. Index repurchases The amount of reduced share capital continues to rise. During the financial crisis in 2008, EPS fell sharply, and corporate buybacks also fell off a cliff. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, the EPS and repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index have been on the rise again since 2010. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the two experienced a short decline simultaneously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3dc2083f3850c07834b3b5601694d4\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As an important financial indicator in the investment research system, ROE will also increase significantly after the company repurchases stocks. Take Apple as an example. Before 2012, there was basically no stock repurchase of its listed companies. 2013 was a turning point, and then the amount of repurchases began to soar sharply. If we look at the growth rate of net profit alone, Apple's fiscal year 2012 was US $41.7 billion and fiscal year 2021 was US $94.7 billion. The annualized compound growth rate of net profit is only 9.5%. When this growth rate is put in the A-share market, it is not a high-tech company at all, but more like a public utility company. But through a large number of share buybacks, Apple's ROE has increased from about 30% in 2013 to 150% in 2021. By fiscal year 2021, Apple's repurchases of common shares will be as high as US $86 billion, which can almost offset the net profit of that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2085bad141a0aa1528e6132dcceafae8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stock repurchases will not only increase the ROE of listed companies, but even make the company's ROE turn negative in more exaggerated cases. In the A-share market, we often see companies with negative ROE. In this case, listed companies are losing money, so the net profit (numerator) is negative. In the U.S. stock market, many companies have made their net assets (denominator) negative because of too many repurchases. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid. The following table reports the changes in McDonald's stock repurchases and ROE from fiscal years 2007 to 2021. It can be seen that before 2014, the company's ROE was roughly 35%. Then a large number of repurchases began. In 2015, the ROE reached 63%. After 2016, the company's share capital was negative, making the ROE negative.</p><p>Negative net assets mean that the company is insolvent in traditional textbooks, which is a signal that it is on the verge of bankruptcy. However, in the current US stock market, the stock prices of many such companies continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b35b389852b97d68f11e2f01e54e78b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Stock repurchases will push up stock price yields</b></p><p><b>Stock returns come from Dividend dividends and changes in market value, and changes in market value are affected by profits and valuations. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term investment, stock returns can be decomposed into three parts: dividend repurchase income, stock valuation and corporate profits. Among them, dividend repurchase income occupies a very important position in the total stock return. In the American stock market, dividend repurchase income can even be said to be the main source of income for stock assets. Therefore, stock repurchases will have a significant impact on stock price returns, and we can see that the gap between the total return index and the ordinary index will increase with the repurchase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbb8fd064eb67ec1fa8705dca4d95dc\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the investment period of more than 30 years since the beginning of 1989, even after two major crises, the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008, investing in U.S. stocks will still bring very rich returns, among which dividend income occupies a very important position, which is reflected in the gap between the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Total Return Index has been adjusted on the basis of the S&P 500 Index, and the dividends of sample stocks are included in the index income. The cumulative increase of the adjusted S&P 500 Total Return Index is nearly 30 times, while the increase of the S&P 500 Index is only 14.2 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3438f479b888125f194b418925a29206\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Philip U. Straehl et al. (The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal) An in-depth study was conducted on the long-term yield of the U.S. stock market from 1871 to 2014. The study found that, including the Dividend distributed by the company and the income generated by stock repurchases, dividend repurchase income can explain the historical yield of U.S. stocks. vast majority,<b>Especially after the rapid development of stock repurchases in 1970, the impact of repurchases on improving stock price returns was more significant.</b>From 1871 to 2014, the real yield of U.S. stocks (after excluding inflation) was about 7%, of which Dividend's yield was 4.5%. If the income from company repurchases is considered, the total dividend repurchase yield will rise to 4.89%, accounting for more than two-thirds of the real yield of U.S. stocks. The above conclusion is still valid after adjusting the research range of U.S. stocks. From 1901 to 2014, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.58%, of which the part from Dividend's income reached 4.29%. Including the corporate repurchase part, the total dividend repurchase The rate of return reached 4.78%; From 1970 to 2014, the Dividend income generated by U.S. stocks was 3.03%. After taking corporate buybacks into account, this part of the income rose to 4.26%. During the same period, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad0938835357fb43662b8316e408bdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 After the repurchase, the stock price-to-book ratio will change significantly compared with the P/E</b></p><p>While share buybacks can boost stock prices, they do not necessarily affect valuations. To be more accurate, stock repurchases will not affect P/E, but will increase the price-to-book ratio. Therefore, after listed companies repurchase shares substantially, we will see significant changes in PB relative to PE.</p><p>The main reason for this difference is that the share repurchase will not affect the company's total market value and net profit, but will lead to a decrease in equity, which will cause the company's price-to-book ratio to increase significantly while the P/E remains unchanged. We assume that Company A has repurchased 20% of its shares at the market price. After the repurchase, the company's total equity will drop from 200 billion yuan to 160 billion yuan. Under the condition that the company's total market value remains unchanged, the price-to-book ratio will increase from the original 1 times to 1.25 times. Since the company's net profit has not been affected, P/E will continue to maintain the level of 4 times before the repurchase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b19d2fc9b3c26a462087305561545\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even from the perspective of the whole market, there is this relationship between P/E and price-to-book ratio. We have standardized the P/E and price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 Index. From the trend point of view, with the substantial increase in the repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index after 2010, the PB increase of the S&P 500 Index is significantly higher than that of PE. Larger, from the beginning of 2010 to April 25, 2022, the PE of the S&P 500 Index has increased from 19 times to 21.3 times, and the PB has increased from 2.0 times to 4.3 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00d74505bd293d3aabeddec93c61174\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Under the stock repurchase, the company's stock price has increased significantly, but P/E has not been affected. Therefore, we see that the current P/E of the S&P 500 index is 21.3 times, which is 56.9% in the historical quantile since 1991. Far from overvalued. This is because the company's EPS has also increased accordingly, but in fact, for the company's value, the increase in EPS brought about by the reduction of equity capital has not created more value for the company, and to a greater extent, it is only a digital game. It is precisely for this reason that if we look at the price-to-book ratio, the current price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index is 4.3 times, which has reached the historical quantile of 88.6% since the beginning of 1991.</p><p><b>4. Potential risks of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>4.1 Stock market repurchases may lead to a decline in market liquidity</b></p><p><b>The long-term bull market of U.S. stocks in the past ten years has been the second longest-lasting bull market in the history of U.S. stocks since World War II, but it is the only bull market that has emerged against the background of a significant decline in trading volume.</b>Since 2010, as the index price continues to rise, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index has declined year by year. At the end of March 2022, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index was only 17.4 billion, which has dropped to the level of the late 1990s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061522652b140a8b126f90d429219659\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason for the price increase and volume decline of U.S. stocks is that a large number of share repurchases by listed companies have reduced the number of shares in circulation in the market, which will also lead to a decline in market liquidity. Take Apple as an example. Since 2013, the company has continuously increased the scale of stock repurchases, and the current number of outstanding shares in the market is 16.32 billion shares, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with the peak level at the end of 2012.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289a5dc4fdb8aaa08f16cc8f333300d2\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the sharp increase in the scale of passive investment is also an important reason for the sharp decline in U.S. stock trading volume, and U.S. stock repurchases can strengthen the positive feedback logic of passive investment in the bull market and further promote the increase in the scale of passive investment.</b>The repurchase of stocks by listed companies has brought about an increase in stock prices. Since passive investment has the advantages of low fee rates and better medium-and long-term performance in the bull market than active funds, investors have bought passive funds one after another, and the increased funds have flowed into index constituent stocks, superimposed on listed companies. The company continues to buy back stocks, further pushing the stock index up and increasing the scale of capital inflows into passive investment. This positive feedback model has continued in the U.S. stock market over the past decade, so we have seen that the asset size of ETFs in the U.S. stock market has increased significantly since 2009.</p><p><b>In the case of a sharp decline in liquidity, once the upward trend of the index is reversed, the positive feedback mechanism of passive investment will also be reversed immediately, which will contribute to the decline of the market. Such a large-scale gushing of funds can easily cause a stampede, and there is a high probability that it will bring very serious consequences.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04884a97efb5559e375ab06921927940\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2 Repurchases prompt listed companies to use financial leverage to the extreme</b></p><p>Repurchase itself can be regarded as a kind of dividend policy of the company. The change in recent years is that the method of \"bond issuance and repurchase\" is favored by more and more companies, which makes listed companies use financial leverage to the extreme.</p><p>Many listed companies have repurchased a large number of shares, making their net assets negative and their asset-liability ratio rise to more than 100%, forming an insolvency situation in corporate financial management in the traditional sense. McDonald's, which was cited earlier when introducing the financial principles involved in repurchases, is an example. The company's asset-liability ratio was only 63% in 2014, and reached a maximum of 119% in 2018. In recent years, it still exceeds 100%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7204db63d2dfbd643ab86e4b40f7980\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Starbucks is another example. In 2017, the asset-liability ratio was only 62%, reached a maximum of 132% in 2019, and it will still be 117% in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93949197cb727b87db6cec84808a0901\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The debt leverage ratio of listed companies in the United States is ridiculously high, and financial leverage is used to the extreme. Take the S&P 500 constituent stocks in the table below as an example. The 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratios all have asset-liability ratios exceeding 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a3ce4721d3e0185ce386b5657c76cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"988\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial leverage and asset-liability ratio are important indicators to measure financial risks, and also important reference factors in corporate credit rating system. The increase of corporate financial leverage and asset-liability ratio will inevitably lead to the increase of financial risks, and will inevitably affect the credit rating of enterprises.</p><p>We have compiled statistics on the current credit ratings of the main companies constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index in the United States. The data shows that more than 80% of the corporate entities in the S&P 500 Index constituent stocks have investment grade credit ratings, and more than 10% of corporate investment entities have speculative credit ratings. In addition, it is worth noting that among the current investment-grade main companies, the credit rating of most companies is the lowest level of investment-grade, that is, Baa, which means that in the case of large fluctuations in the external economic environment, most companies may face the risk of lowering their credit rating from investment grade to speculative grade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c25dff19b1c181a4f5a0e5ed1182387\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e45b03dcf8e324c10f228abce824fe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the sample range of companies is narrowed to the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks, we can see that the proportion of companies with speculative credit ratings has increased significantly.</b>Under Moody's classification rating, among these 50 companies, the number of speculative-grade companies accounts for 23.3%, and under the S&P rating classification it is 36.2%, both of which are significantly higher than the proportion of corresponding classifications under all S&P 500 constituent stocks. Similarly, among investment-grade entity companies, Baa (Moody's's lowest investment-grade rating) or BBB (Standard & Poor's lowest investment-grade rating) accounts for an overwhelming proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba608d69d552164772f0c78db122613c\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1825ece9b330eff6989d428d65b10aeb\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The impact of large-scale bond repurchase on corporate credit rating is significant. In 2015, the Moody's credit rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds dropped by two consecutive levels, mainly because it planned to increase the issuance of Dividend and stock repurchases through bond issuance. In May 2015, Moody's downgraded the rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds from A2 to A3. Part of the reason for this downgrade is that McDonald's plans to accelerate the return of $8 billion to $9 billion to shareholders through dividend distribution and stock buybacks. Moody's believes that McDonald's guidance to accelerate stock buybacks and distribute high Dividend is a manifestation of its aggressive financial policy, which will lead to a sharp increase in debt levels. In November 2015, Moody's downgraded McDonald's corporate credit rating to Baa1 again as McDonald's announced that it would increase the amount returned to shareholders through bond issuance.</p><p>In addition, in 2015, Standard & Poor's downgraded McDonald's rating twice, and McDonald's long-term issuer credit rating dropped from A to A-and then to BBB +. In the same year, Fitch Ratings directly downgraded McDonald's long-term issuer default rating from A to BBB +, and again to BBB in 2016.</p><p>The same is true of Starbucks. In November 2017, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to A3. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks planned to return $15 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases from 2018 to 2020, and part of the returned funds would come from additional debt. Moody's believes that this will lead to a significant increase in debt levels and a substantial deterioration in credit indicators, so it downgraded Starbucks' corporate bond rating. In June 2018, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to Baa1 again. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks decided to significantly increase debt to increase the amount returned to shareholders to $25 billion. Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings also downgraded their corporate ratings after Starbucks decided to issue bonds to repurchase shares, and Starbucks' rating dropped from A to BBB +.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0625be465abe14191484b6704a99229\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the high debt leverage ratio itself is not a sufficient condition for the stock price to fall, but it does also lay the hidden danger of corporate debt default. Especially in the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the credit risk caused by high financial leverage is continuing to rise.</b></p><p><b>5. The experience of U.S. stock repurchase on A-shares</b></p><p>Compared with the U.S. stock market, the current scale of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies is still at an extremely low level. As of April 26, 2022, in fiscal year 2021, the total amount used by U.S. listed companies to repurchase common shares and preferred shares reached 7.37 trillion yuan, while the amount of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies during the same period was only 121.1 billion yuan, less than 2% of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18608cdb64ca03bda791eb503fb57cdb\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, from the trend point of view, after the release of the new regulations on stock repurchase in 2018, the enthusiasm of A-share listed companies for repurchases has increased significantly, and the scale of repurchases has expanded significantly. In the whole year of 2012, only 11 A-share listed companies conducted share repurchases, with a total repurchase amount of 2.5 billion yuan; For the whole year of 2021, the number of listed companies conducting A-share stock repurchases has risen to 994, and the cumulative repurchase amount for the whole year has reached 121.1 billion yuan.</p><p>In the article \"Enlightenment from Previous A-share Repurchase Booms\", we review the performance of listed companies in previous A-share repurchase booms, and found that 1) undervalued companies had obvious excess returns after the release of the repurchase plan; 2) The proportion of the company's repurchase amount to the total market value is positively correlated with excess returns; 3) Company repurchases have a long-term supporting effect on stock prices.</p><p>Therefore, whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support the stock price to a certain extent or even push the stock price up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies. On the one hand, we believe that as A-share listed companies conduct more corporate repurchases in the future, there is still potential room for the company's stock price to rise. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, there has been a new round of stock market repurchase boom in the market. As of April 15th, the amount of repurchases implemented by listed companies during the year was about 27.2 billion yuan, and the number of companies that have implemented repurchases during the year exceeded 400. More and more listed companies' repurchases also highlight their confidence in the future market to a certain extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4606ec8bf026e232ce9427bc25c625f\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(All individual stock information involved in this report is only a summary of public information, and does not constitute any profit forecast and investment rating)</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zxjzzl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Understand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnderstand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">追寻价值之路</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-28 14:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support stock prices to a certain extent or even push stock prices up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies.<b>Core conclusions</b></p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest. After years of development, it has become a common means in the capital market. Especially in the last ten years, the scale of repurchase by listed companies in the United States has soared sharply.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the U.S. stock market, this article discusses and sorts out issues related to stock repurchases. The main contents are divided into five parts:</p><p>The first part introduces the basic concept of stock repurchase, including four common ways of repurchase and the motivation of stock repurchase; The second part discusses the related financial treatment of stock repurchase, involving whether to choose the financial treatment of canceling shares after repurchase and why some enterprises have negative net assets after repurchase; The third part sorts out the logic that stock repurchases are conducive to stock price rises. One is to directly increase the demand for company stocks, and the other is to improve financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies. In addition, judging from the performance of U.S. stocks, stock repurchases It is an important part of stock price yields, and the impact of repurchases on price-to-book ratios is more significant than P/E; The fourth part discusses the potential risks of stock repurchase, mainly including the decline of market liquidity and the high financial leverage risk of listed companies caused by repurchase; The fifth part is an introduction to the current repurchase situation of A shares and the experience of US stock repurchase on A shares. Risk warning: Repurchases increase financial leverage risks, historical experience does not represent the future, the macro economy is less than expected, and overseas markets fluctuate significantly</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. Introduction to the basic concepts of stock repurchase</b></p><p><b>1.1 What is a share repurchase?</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the behavior of listed companies using cash and other means to repurchase a certain amount of outstanding stocks of the company from the stock market, which will reduce the number of outstanding stocks of the company, thereby achieving market value management, equity incentives, and stabilizing stock prices. and other positive effects.</p><p>There are two main sources of funds for enterprises to repurchase stocks: one is internal funds, including net profits obtained from daily operations of enterprises or cash sources such as government tax cuts and tax rebates, as well as self-owned funds such as the original retained earnings of enterprises; The second is external funds, which borrow money and add leverage through bond issuance and other means to achieve share repurchase.</p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest, especially after the 1980s. Previously, because western European and American countries advocated the theory of maintaining corporate capital, and the repurchase behavior itself was suspected of market manipulation, few companies conducted stock repurchases. It was not until the 1980s that stock repurchases began to gradually develop. After more than 40 years of development, stock repurchase has become a common means in developed capital markets. It is widely used to optimize the capital structure, enhance the company's value, or send positive signals when the company's stock price is undervalued.</p><p><b>1.2 Four common ways of stock repurchase</b></p><p>According to the different methods of determining the repurchase price, stock repurchase can generally be divided into four basic methods: open market operation, cash offer repurchase, agreement repurchase and transferable sale right repurchase.</p><p>Open market repurchase is a popular stock repurchase method in the current US market. Listed companies that repurchase shares through the open market will directly repurchase shares in the open market at the current market price. Stock repurchases under this method are more flexible. Listed companies can freely decide factors such as the time and quantity of repurchases according to their own circumstances. Moreover, stock repurchases under this method do not need to pay additional premiums.</p><p>Another more common method of stock repurchase is offer repurchase. There are generally two pricing methods for listed companies to repurchase stocks through tender offers. One is to use a fixed price to issue an offer to shareholders within an agreed period to purchase a certain number of stocks. Listed companies generally choose this pricing method when they need a large number of company stocks in a short period of time. However, a sharp increase in demand in the short term will lead to paying a certain premium for repurchasing stocks. Another pricing method under tender offer repurchase is Dutch auction repurchase, which will give the company greater flexibility in the repurchase price, so it is also widely used. In Dutch auction repurchase, the listed company sets the range of repurchase price and the quantity planned to repurchase, and then shareholders express the number of shares they are willing to sell at a certain level within the price range. Finally, the listed company will summarize the wishes of all shareholders and repurchase shares according to the low to high price order until the established repurchase quantity of the listed company is reached.</p><p>Agreement buybacks are less transparent compared to open market buybacks and offer buybacks. Because under the agreement repurchase method, listed companies directly enter into private agreements with some shareholders to repurchase shares according to the price and quantity agreed in the agreement. This method is relatively free in terms of pricing, transaction time and payment method, and usually the negotiated price is lower than the market price.</p><p>Transferable right of sale repurchase is a special way of stock repurchase. The company that implements stock repurchase gives shareholders the right to sell their stocks to the company at a specific price within a certain period of time. Once this right is formed, it can be separated and traded with the attached stocks. Listed companies issue transferable authorizations to their shareholders, and shareholders who are unwilling to sell their shares can sell this right separately to meet the different demands of various shareholders.</p><p><b>1.3 Why Stock Repurchase?</b></p><p>The benefits of share repurchases are multifaceted. From the perspective of the company as a whole, whether it is internal or external funds to repurchase shares, it can improve the capital structure of the enterprise and reduce the cost of supervision and restraint on the company's management. The way of issuing bonds to repurchase shares can also make use of the tax shield effect of debts to achieve reasonable tax avoidance, and urge the management to focus on the debt repayment and long-term sustainable operation of the enterprise. For those shareholders who sell their stocks in the stock repurchase plan, they can sell their stocks to obtain liquidity. In addition, compared with the direct distribution of cash Dividend, since capital gains are generally not taxed or the tax rate is lower, effective tax avoidance can be achieved by distributing dividends through stock repurchase. Shareholders who still hold shares after the company implements the repurchase plan can also benefit. As the net capital of the enterprise will be significantly reduced after the completion of the stock repurchase, under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, the financial indicators such as the return on net assets, earnings per share, and net assets per share of the enterprise will all be significantly improved. If we classify the motivations of listed companies' stock repurchases, we can also classify them into the following four categories: one is financial motivation, the other is signal transmission appeal, the third is to reduce principal-agent risks, and the fourth is to increase company control to prevent hostile takeovers.</p><p><b>The financial motivation of listed companies to buy back shares is mainly related to their capital structure and dividend policy. Listed companies often buy back shares for financial reasons such as increasing earnings per share, improving capital structure and increasing shareholder wealth effect.</b>Specifically, the improvement of stock repurchase on the financial-related factors of listed companies is mainly reflected in four aspects:</p><p><b>First, improve the company's earnings per share.</b>Since buybacks will reduce the number of outstanding shares of listed companies, the decrease in the denominator when calculating earnings per share will directly lead to an increase in EPS, which may also increase the company's stock price.</p><p><b>Second, realize dividend tax avoidance and increase the shareholder wealth of listed companies.</b>Since the tax rate of cash dividends is higher than the tax rate of capital gains, cash return to shareholders by share repurchase instead of dividends can help shareholders achieve reasonable tax avoidance. In the PRC, the Dividend dividend income of individual investors whose shareholding period is less than one month is fully included in the taxable income, and the actual tax burden is 20%, but capital gains are temporarily exempted from income tax.</p><p><b>Thirdly, optimize the capital structure of the company and improve the value of the company through the tax shield effect.</b>No matter how the stock repurchase is carried out, it will reduce the company's owner's equity, and bond repurchase will even increase the company's debt, thus increasing the company's financial leverage ratio and producing a leverage effect. Therefore, for companies with low financial leverage, this can not only optimize the company's capital structure, but also make use of the tax shield effect brought by financing interest to improve the company's value.</p><p><b>Fourth, stock repurchases have high financial flexibility.</b>There are generally two ways for listed companies to return cash to shareholders: cash dividends and stock repurchases. However, the way of paying cash dividends usually makes shareholders expect future dividends, which requires the company to have stable cash flow. However, stock repurchase occurs occasionally. Listed companies can choose the amount, quantity, time, etc. of repurchase relatively freely under the stock repurchase method, which has great financial flexibility compared with the stock repurchase method.</p><p><b>The signal transmission appeal of stock repurchase is mainly based on the assumption of information asymmetry. Listed companies can transmit the signal to the market that the company's stock price is undervalued through stock repurchase, because the company will only carry out stock repurchase when it thinks that its stock price is undervalued. Sending a positive signal to the market in this way has a positive impact on the company's short-term operating income.</b></p><p><b>Share buybacks also help reduce principal-agent risk.</b>Because the management right and ownership of listed companies are separated, and the goals of agent and principal are not completely consistent, it may be that the principal can't clearly understand the goal bias of agent, thus causing the interests of principal to be damaged. Especially when the company's free cash flow is relatively abundant, the company's management may make over-investment or consumption for its own interests, thus encroaching on the interests of the company's shareholders. In this case, the company returns cash to shareholders through stock repurchase, which not only improves the efficiency of cash flow use, but also reduces agency costs and principal-agent risks.</p><p><b>Increasing control right through stock repurchase, preventing equity dilution and hostile takeover are also one of the motives of stock repurchase of listed companies.</b>In the 1980s, with the rise of leveraged mergers and acquisitions in the United States, hostile takeover activities gradually increased. In order to prevent companies from being hostile takeover, listed companies have repurchased shares to increase stock prices, reduce outstanding shares and resist hostile takeover. While there are fewer hostile takeovers now, using the repurchased shares for management's equity incentive program also helps avoid dilution.</p><p><b>2. Financial treatment of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>2.1 The difference between stock cancellation or not after share repurchase</b></p><p>For listed companies, after the stock repurchase is completed, the company can cancel the repurchased shares or keep the repurchased shares as \"treasury shares\".</p><p>The \"treasury shares\" retained by the company still belong to the issued shares, which are held by the company itself, and can be sold to the market at an appropriate time, issued convertible bonds or used as incentives for employees. However, the characteristics of \"treasury shares\" are similar to unissued stocks. \"Treasury shares\" have no voting rights, nor the right to pay dividends, and cannot be realized even after the company goes bankrupt. Therefore, \"treasury shares\" do not participate in the calculation of indicators such as earnings per share, return on net assets and net assets per share.</p><p><b>Therefore, after the stock repurchase is completed, whether the repurchased stocks are cancelled or not, it will not affect financial indicators such as earnings per share, net assets per share and return on net assets, because even if they are retained as \"treasury stocks\", these stocks will not participate in the calculation of these indicators.</b>From this perspective, there will be no big difference between cancelling and not canceling the repurchased shares for companies.</p><p><b>However, in most cases, enterprises will choose to keep the repurchased stocks as \"treasury stocks\" after the stock repurchase is completed.</b>We have counted the handling of stock repurchases of the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. Among them, 30 listed companies have chosen to repurchase stocks and retained \"treasury shares\", and the other 20 listed companies have chosen to cancel the repurchased stocks or have not carried out stock repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485e1f54b04ed2c89a5d83b631a23a53\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The reason why enterprises tend to keep \"treasury stocks\" is mainly because \"treasury stocks\" themselves can bring certain positive significance to enterprises.</b></p><p>First, it can provide the company with sufficient flexibility in terms of financing and reduce financing costs. Since \"treasury shares\" are still issued shares, the company can sell \"treasury shares\" when there is a financing need; Compared with allotment of shares or issuance of new shares, the cost of obtaining funds by selling \"treasury shares\" is lower, which can not only save the supervision and intermediary costs related to issuing shares, but also avoid selling at a discount when the market permits.</p><p>Second, it is conducive to the implementation of incentive plans for employees or management. \"Treasury shares\" are one of the important stock sources for companies to issue equity incentives to employees and management. Therefore, for U.S. listed companies, retaining \"treasury shares\" can facilitate the implementation of equity incentive plans, etc., and avoid the lack of sufficient shares. The source of shares makes the incentive plan unable to be implemented.</p><p>The third is to facilitate the company's mergers and acquisitions and prevent the company from suffering hostile takeover. Merger and acquisition through treasury share exchange can provide certain flexibility for the company's merger and acquisition behavior; In addition, the behavior of retaining \"treasury shares\" after the repurchase can also prevent the company from being hostile takeovers. On the one hand, the repurchase pushes up the stock price, which makes it more difficult for the acquirer. On the other hand, \"treasury shares\" can supplement the number of shares in circulation of the company. Provide buffer time for the company to deal with hostile takeovers.</p><p>Fourth, it is conducive to the stability of stock prices. When there is irrational fluctuation in the market, enterprises can stabilize the price fluctuation by adjusting the supply of outstanding stocks, stabilize the stock price, and avoid the company being greatly affected by irrational factors such as market sentiment.</p><p><b>2.2 How does repurchase lead to negative net assets of enterprises?</b></p><p>Among the benefits that stock repurchases can bring, a very important one is that stock repurchases can increase EPS and the company's overall ROE. This is mainly because stock repurchases will reduce the company's net capital, and a significant decline in the denominator will bring Significant improvements including EPS and ROE. In even more exaggerated circumstances, some U.S.-listed companies have repurchased a large number of issued shares in the form of bond repurchases, resulting in a situation where total liabilities are greater than total assets and negative net assets. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid.</p><p>So how do these listed companies in the United States make their net assets negative through buybacks?<b>The main reason behind this is that there is a huge difference between the book value of equity assets in the financial statements and the market value of stocks in the secondary market. The stock price in the secondary market will not be reflected in the balance sheet, so the book value of stocks and the market value are not equal. When enterprises repurchase, they mainly refer to the market value of stocks, so the cost of repurchasing stocks often has a premium relative to the book value. Therefore, whether it is transferred to treasury stocks after repurchase, used as a deduction item when calculating shareholders' equity, or retained earnings account is offset when cancelled after repurchase, as long as the premium on the cost of repurchased stocks is too large, it may lead to The retained earnings account turned negative, and even caused the company's overall net assets to show a negative value.</b></p><p>Take Starbucks Corporation, for example. In the annual report for fiscal year 2019 (from September 30, 2018 to September 30, 2019) released by Starbucks, the company's total assets dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018 to US $19.22 billion, but its total liabilities dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018. US $22.98 billion rose to US $25.45 billion, which means that Starbucks' net assets, that is, owner's equity, dropped from US $1.18 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-US $6.23 billion in fiscal year 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0772be7e56e10608ecbc5ec6b38ac32\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judging from the shareholder equity breakdown account in Starbucks' balance sheet, the main reason why the company's net assets were less than 0 in 2019 is that the retained earnings account has dropped significantly.</b>In fiscal year 2018, Starbucks' retained earnings still had a balance of nearly US $1.5 billion, but by the end of fiscal year 2019, retained earnings dropped sharply to-US $5.77 billion, which directly led to Starbucks' shareholders' equity turning negative significantly. Since then, the company's retained earnings account has been Maintain a negative state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec889287bc85df1b916c06e198a16507\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The main reason for the negative retained earnings is stock repurchases.</b>Take the first negative retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 as an example. During fiscal year 2019, Starbucks conducted a large number of stock repurchases, and the number of issued share capital dropped from 1.31 billion shares in fiscal year 2018 to 1.18 billion shares. The total share capital decreased by US $100,000, the capital reserve decreased by US $610 million, and the premium part of corporate stock repurchases offset retained earnings by as much as US $9.52 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of changes in owner's equity, the increase or decrease of Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 was mainly affected by changes in accounting policies, net profit, stock repurchases and cash dividends. If the impact of stock repurchases is not taken into account, changes in accounting policies and net profits will increase retained earnings by US $496 million and US $3.599 billion respectively. Even with a cash dividend of US $1.8 billion, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 will still be higher than that at the beginning of the period. increase. However, under the influence of stock repurchases, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 not only did not increase, but decreased significantly, and even experienced a large negative value, ultimately making net assets less than 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c366d6c37385579e78b67920cd8cf623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the financial treatment of shares repurchased and transferred to treasury shares, we can refer to the case of McDonald's Corporation. As early as fiscal year 2016, McDonald's net assets were already less than 0; Since then, McDonald's has continued to issue bonds to repurchase tradable shares and transfer them to treasury stock, resulting in a continuous decline in the company's net assets. As of the end of fiscal year 2019 (December 31, 2019), McDonald's total assets rose from US $32.8 billion at the end of the previous period to US $47.5 billion, while total liabilities also rose significantly from US $39.1 billion to US $55.7 billion. Therefore, McDonald's Shareholder equity dropped from-US $6.3 billion at the end of 2018 to-US $8.2 billion, a record low. Although the company's shareholders' equity has rebounded in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, it still remains negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d65757489198ea8fd29d1769560c54\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of the breakdown of shareholders' equity, the continued decline of McDonald's shareholders' equity in 2019 was mainly due to the continued rise in the cost of treasury shares.</b>The values of capital reserve, retained earnings and other comprehensive income accounts that affect shareholders' equity in fiscal year 2019 all increased compared with fiscal year 2018, while the equity account remained unchanged. Only the allowance item for treasury shares dropped from-61.5 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-66.3 billion US dollars (which means that the cost of purchasing treasury shares increased from 61.5 billion US dollars to 66.3 billion US dollars), and resulted in a significant decline in shareholders' equity. Although the cost of treasury shares continues to rise in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, due to the significant increase in capital reserves and retained earnings accounts, shareholders' equity as a whole has rebounded slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a6095fde99dbb62d4aed332b2ec0f00\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the statement of changes in owner's equity, in fiscal year 2019, McDonald's continued to repurchase 25 million shares, and the total repurchase cost reached US $4.98 billion; At the same time, 4.2 million treasury shares were used to complete the stock exercise subscription plan, and the amount of treasury shares transferred out was US $180 million. Therefore, as of the end of fiscal year 2019, McDonald's repurchased a total of 914 million treasury shares, and the cumulative total cost of repurchasing treasury shares rose from US $61.5 billion to US $66.3 billion, resulting in a continued decline in shareholder equity to-US $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1653e1d47f48f71ec3b559f0778ebed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Stock repurchases are conducive to driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>3.1 The main logic of buybacks driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>There are two main mechanisms for repurchases to promote the rise of stock prices. First, listed companies can directly increase the demand for the company's stocks to increase the stock price by repurchasing stocks, which is also the most direct channel for stock repurchases to have an impact.</b></p><p><b>In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, listed companies themselves have been a very important participant in the US stock market.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, between 2009 and 2021, among the major players in the equity market, ETF funds have accumulated a net purchase of US $2.77 trillion in stocks, and U.S. households and non-profit institutions have accumulated a net purchase of US $1.17 trillion. Mutual funds and other financial institutions have accumulated net sales of US $90.1 billion and US $2.27 trillion in equity assets respectively. The amount traded by non-financial companies to buy back shares has soared sharply in the past decade, with the cumulative amount of transactions in this part alone reaching nearly $5 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b3c3aacf75c2cbd431cf148c3a3c19\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120a876d16c099ebeb3de8eeb78c05d\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can assume that Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares and simulate its stock price performance before and after implementing the share repurchase to study the impact of the repurchase. According to the financial valuation model, the company's market value depends on indicators such as future cash flow or net profit, so the behavior of stock repurchase will not affect the company's total market value. We assume that before the repurchase, Company A had 20 billion outstanding shares, each worth 10 yuan, and the total market value was 200 billion yuan; This time, Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares. After the repurchase, there are still 16 billion shares in circulation. Since the total market value remains unchanged at 200 billion yuan, the price of each share will rise to 12.5 yuan, which is the same as the repurchase. Compared with before, the stock price rose by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8de2f35668d54b51facdda584daeebe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The second mechanism by which buybacks drive stock prices higher is by improving financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies.</b></p><p>Since Company A's repurchase behavior will not lead to changes in the company's net profit, the net profit before and after the repurchase is 50 billion yuan, so after the repurchase, Company A's EPS will rise from 2.5 yuan to 3.125 yuan, an increase of 25%.</p><p>The same is true for the stock market as a whole. Historical data shows that the trend of S&P 500 EPS is highly consistent with the trend of S&P 500 repurchase scale. From the trend point of view, the trend of S&P 500 Index EPS and repurchase scale has roughly gone through three stages since 2000. From 2000 to 2007, the index EPS increased slowly, and the scale of company repurchases also continued to increase. Index repurchases The amount of reduced share capital continues to rise. During the financial crisis in 2008, EPS fell sharply, and corporate buybacks also fell off a cliff. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, the EPS and repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index have been on the rise again since 2010. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the two experienced a short decline simultaneously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3dc2083f3850c07834b3b5601694d4\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As an important financial indicator in the investment research system, ROE will also increase significantly after the company repurchases stocks. Take Apple as an example. Before 2012, there was basically no stock repurchase of its listed companies. 2013 was a turning point, and then the amount of repurchases began to soar sharply. If we look at the growth rate of net profit alone, Apple's fiscal year 2012 was US $41.7 billion and fiscal year 2021 was US $94.7 billion. The annualized compound growth rate of net profit is only 9.5%. When this growth rate is put in the A-share market, it is not a high-tech company at all, but more like a public utility company. But through a large number of share buybacks, Apple's ROE has increased from about 30% in 2013 to 150% in 2021. By fiscal year 2021, Apple's repurchases of common shares will be as high as US $86 billion, which can almost offset the net profit of that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2085bad141a0aa1528e6132dcceafae8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stock repurchases will not only increase the ROE of listed companies, but even make the company's ROE turn negative in more exaggerated cases. In the A-share market, we often see companies with negative ROE. In this case, listed companies are losing money, so the net profit (numerator) is negative. In the U.S. stock market, many companies have made their net assets (denominator) negative because of too many repurchases. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid. The following table reports the changes in McDonald's stock repurchases and ROE from fiscal years 2007 to 2021. It can be seen that before 2014, the company's ROE was roughly 35%. Then a large number of repurchases began. In 2015, the ROE reached 63%. After 2016, the company's share capital was negative, making the ROE negative.</p><p>Negative net assets mean that the company is insolvent in traditional textbooks, which is a signal that it is on the verge of bankruptcy. However, in the current US stock market, the stock prices of many such companies continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b35b389852b97d68f11e2f01e54e78b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Stock repurchases will push up stock price yields</b></p><p><b>Stock returns come from Dividend dividends and changes in market value, and changes in market value are affected by profits and valuations. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term investment, stock returns can be decomposed into three parts: dividend repurchase income, stock valuation and corporate profits. Among them, dividend repurchase income occupies a very important position in the total stock return. In the American stock market, dividend repurchase income can even be said to be the main source of income for stock assets. Therefore, stock repurchases will have a significant impact on stock price returns, and we can see that the gap between the total return index and the ordinary index will increase with the repurchase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbb8fd064eb67ec1fa8705dca4d95dc\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the investment period of more than 30 years since the beginning of 1989, even after two major crises, the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008, investing in U.S. stocks will still bring very rich returns, among which dividend income occupies a very important position, which is reflected in the gap between the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Total Return Index has been adjusted on the basis of the S&P 500 Index, and the dividends of sample stocks are included in the index income. The cumulative increase of the adjusted S&P 500 Total Return Index is nearly 30 times, while the increase of the S&P 500 Index is only 14.2 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3438f479b888125f194b418925a29206\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Philip U. Straehl et al. (The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal) An in-depth study was conducted on the long-term yield of the U.S. stock market from 1871 to 2014. The study found that, including the Dividend distributed by the company and the income generated by stock repurchases, dividend repurchase income can explain the historical yield of U.S. stocks. vast majority,<b>Especially after the rapid development of stock repurchases in 1970, the impact of repurchases on improving stock price returns was more significant.</b>From 1871 to 2014, the real yield of U.S. stocks (after excluding inflation) was about 7%, of which Dividend's yield was 4.5%. If the income from company repurchases is considered, the total dividend repurchase yield will rise to 4.89%, accounting for more than two-thirds of the real yield of U.S. stocks. The above conclusion is still valid after adjusting the research range of U.S. stocks. From 1901 to 2014, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.58%, of which the part from Dividend's income reached 4.29%. Including the corporate repurchase part, the total dividend repurchase The rate of return reached 4.78%; From 1970 to 2014, the Dividend income generated by U.S. stocks was 3.03%. After taking corporate buybacks into account, this part of the income rose to 4.26%. During the same period, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad0938835357fb43662b8316e408bdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 After the repurchase, the stock price-to-book ratio will change significantly compared with the P/E</b></p><p>While share buybacks can boost stock prices, they do not necessarily affect valuations. To be more accurate, stock repurchases will not affect P/E, but will increase the price-to-book ratio. Therefore, after listed companies repurchase shares substantially, we will see significant changes in PB relative to PE.</p><p>The main reason for this difference is that the share repurchase will not affect the company's total market value and net profit, but will lead to a decrease in equity, which will cause the company's price-to-book ratio to increase significantly while the P/E remains unchanged. We assume that Company A has repurchased 20% of its shares at the market price. After the repurchase, the company's total equity will drop from 200 billion yuan to 160 billion yuan. Under the condition that the company's total market value remains unchanged, the price-to-book ratio will increase from the original 1 times to 1.25 times. Since the company's net profit has not been affected, P/E will continue to maintain the level of 4 times before the repurchase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b19d2fc9b3c26a462087305561545\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even from the perspective of the whole market, there is this relationship between P/E and price-to-book ratio. We have standardized the P/E and price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 Index. From the trend point of view, with the substantial increase in the repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index after 2010, the PB increase of the S&P 500 Index is significantly higher than that of PE. Larger, from the beginning of 2010 to April 25, 2022, the PE of the S&P 500 Index has increased from 19 times to 21.3 times, and the PB has increased from 2.0 times to 4.3 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00d74505bd293d3aabeddec93c61174\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Under the stock repurchase, the company's stock price has increased significantly, but P/E has not been affected. Therefore, we see that the current P/E of the S&P 500 index is 21.3 times, which is 56.9% in the historical quantile since 1991. Far from overvalued. This is because the company's EPS has also increased accordingly, but in fact, for the company's value, the increase in EPS brought about by the reduction of equity capital has not created more value for the company, and to a greater extent, it is only a digital game. It is precisely for this reason that if we look at the price-to-book ratio, the current price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index is 4.3 times, which has reached the historical quantile of 88.6% since the beginning of 1991.</p><p><b>4. Potential risks of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>4.1 Stock market repurchases may lead to a decline in market liquidity</b></p><p><b>The long-term bull market of U.S. stocks in the past ten years has been the second longest-lasting bull market in the history of U.S. stocks since World War II, but it is the only bull market that has emerged against the background of a significant decline in trading volume.</b>Since 2010, as the index price continues to rise, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index has declined year by year. At the end of March 2022, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index was only 17.4 billion, which has dropped to the level of the late 1990s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061522652b140a8b126f90d429219659\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason for the price increase and volume decline of U.S. stocks is that a large number of share repurchases by listed companies have reduced the number of shares in circulation in the market, which will also lead to a decline in market liquidity. Take Apple as an example. Since 2013, the company has continuously increased the scale of stock repurchases, and the current number of outstanding shares in the market is 16.32 billion shares, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with the peak level at the end of 2012.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289a5dc4fdb8aaa08f16cc8f333300d2\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the sharp increase in the scale of passive investment is also an important reason for the sharp decline in U.S. stock trading volume, and U.S. stock repurchases can strengthen the positive feedback logic of passive investment in the bull market and further promote the increase in the scale of passive investment.</b>The repurchase of stocks by listed companies has brought about an increase in stock prices. Since passive investment has the advantages of low fee rates and better medium-and long-term performance in the bull market than active funds, investors have bought passive funds one after another, and the increased funds have flowed into index constituent stocks, superimposed on listed companies. The company continues to buy back stocks, further pushing the stock index up and increasing the scale of capital inflows into passive investment. This positive feedback model has continued in the U.S. stock market over the past decade, so we have seen that the asset size of ETFs in the U.S. stock market has increased significantly since 2009.</p><p><b>In the case of a sharp decline in liquidity, once the upward trend of the index is reversed, the positive feedback mechanism of passive investment will also be reversed immediately, which will contribute to the decline of the market. Such a large-scale gushing of funds can easily cause a stampede, and there is a high probability that it will bring very serious consequences.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04884a97efb5559e375ab06921927940\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2 Repurchases prompt listed companies to use financial leverage to the extreme</b></p><p>Repurchase itself can be regarded as a kind of dividend policy of the company. The change in recent years is that the method of \"bond issuance and repurchase\" is favored by more and more companies, which makes listed companies use financial leverage to the extreme.</p><p>Many listed companies have repurchased a large number of shares, making their net assets negative and their asset-liability ratio rise to more than 100%, forming an insolvency situation in corporate financial management in the traditional sense. McDonald's, which was cited earlier when introducing the financial principles involved in repurchases, is an example. The company's asset-liability ratio was only 63% in 2014, and reached a maximum of 119% in 2018. In recent years, it still exceeds 100%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7204db63d2dfbd643ab86e4b40f7980\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Starbucks is another example. In 2017, the asset-liability ratio was only 62%, reached a maximum of 132% in 2019, and it will still be 117% in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93949197cb727b87db6cec84808a0901\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The debt leverage ratio of listed companies in the United States is ridiculously high, and financial leverage is used to the extreme. Take the S&P 500 constituent stocks in the table below as an example. The 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratios all have asset-liability ratios exceeding 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a3ce4721d3e0185ce386b5657c76cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"988\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial leverage and asset-liability ratio are important indicators to measure financial risks, and also important reference factors in corporate credit rating system. The increase of corporate financial leverage and asset-liability ratio will inevitably lead to the increase of financial risks, and will inevitably affect the credit rating of enterprises.</p><p>We have compiled statistics on the current credit ratings of the main companies constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index in the United States. The data shows that more than 80% of the corporate entities in the S&P 500 Index constituent stocks have investment grade credit ratings, and more than 10% of corporate investment entities have speculative credit ratings. In addition, it is worth noting that among the current investment-grade main companies, the credit rating of most companies is the lowest level of investment-grade, that is, Baa, which means that in the case of large fluctuations in the external economic environment, most companies may face the risk of lowering their credit rating from investment grade to speculative grade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c25dff19b1c181a4f5a0e5ed1182387\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e45b03dcf8e324c10f228abce824fe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the sample range of companies is narrowed to the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks, we can see that the proportion of companies with speculative credit ratings has increased significantly.</b>Under Moody's classification rating, among these 50 companies, the number of speculative-grade companies accounts for 23.3%, and under the S&P rating classification it is 36.2%, both of which are significantly higher than the proportion of corresponding classifications under all S&P 500 constituent stocks. Similarly, among investment-grade entity companies, Baa (Moody's's lowest investment-grade rating) or BBB (Standard & Poor's lowest investment-grade rating) accounts for an overwhelming proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba608d69d552164772f0c78db122613c\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1825ece9b330eff6989d428d65b10aeb\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The impact of large-scale bond repurchase on corporate credit rating is significant. In 2015, the Moody's credit rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds dropped by two consecutive levels, mainly because it planned to increase the issuance of Dividend and stock repurchases through bond issuance. In May 2015, Moody's downgraded the rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds from A2 to A3. Part of the reason for this downgrade is that McDonald's plans to accelerate the return of $8 billion to $9 billion to shareholders through dividend distribution and stock buybacks. Moody's believes that McDonald's guidance to accelerate stock buybacks and distribute high Dividend is a manifestation of its aggressive financial policy, which will lead to a sharp increase in debt levels. In November 2015, Moody's downgraded McDonald's corporate credit rating to Baa1 again as McDonald's announced that it would increase the amount returned to shareholders through bond issuance.</p><p>In addition, in 2015, Standard & Poor's downgraded McDonald's rating twice, and McDonald's long-term issuer credit rating dropped from A to A-and then to BBB +. In the same year, Fitch Ratings directly downgraded McDonald's long-term issuer default rating from A to BBB +, and again to BBB in 2016.</p><p>The same is true of Starbucks. In November 2017, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to A3. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks planned to return $15 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases from 2018 to 2020, and part of the returned funds would come from additional debt. Moody's believes that this will lead to a significant increase in debt levels and a substantial deterioration in credit indicators, so it downgraded Starbucks' corporate bond rating. In June 2018, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to Baa1 again. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks decided to significantly increase debt to increase the amount returned to shareholders to $25 billion. Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings also downgraded their corporate ratings after Starbucks decided to issue bonds to repurchase shares, and Starbucks' rating dropped from A to BBB +.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0625be465abe14191484b6704a99229\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the high debt leverage ratio itself is not a sufficient condition for the stock price to fall, but it does also lay the hidden danger of corporate debt default. Especially in the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the credit risk caused by high financial leverage is continuing to rise.</b></p><p><b>5. The experience of U.S. stock repurchase on A-shares</b></p><p>Compared with the U.S. stock market, the current scale of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies is still at an extremely low level. As of April 26, 2022, in fiscal year 2021, the total amount used by U.S. listed companies to repurchase common shares and preferred shares reached 7.37 trillion yuan, while the amount of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies during the same period was only 121.1 billion yuan, less than 2% of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18608cdb64ca03bda791eb503fb57cdb\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, from the trend point of view, after the release of the new regulations on stock repurchase in 2018, the enthusiasm of A-share listed companies for repurchases has increased significantly, and the scale of repurchases has expanded significantly. In the whole year of 2012, only 11 A-share listed companies conducted share repurchases, with a total repurchase amount of 2.5 billion yuan; For the whole year of 2021, the number of listed companies conducting A-share stock repurchases has risen to 994, and the cumulative repurchase amount for the whole year has reached 121.1 billion yuan.</p><p>In the article \"Enlightenment from Previous A-share Repurchase Booms\", we review the performance of listed companies in previous A-share repurchase booms, and found that 1) undervalued companies had obvious excess returns after the release of the repurchase plan; 2) The proportion of the company's repurchase amount to the total market value is positively correlated with excess returns; 3) Company repurchases have a long-term supporting effect on stock prices.</p><p>Therefore, whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support the stock price to a certain extent or even push the stock price up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies. On the one hand, we believe that as A-share listed companies conduct more corporate repurchases in the future, there is still potential room for the company's stock price to rise. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, there has been a new round of stock market repurchase boom in the market. As of April 15th, the amount of repurchases implemented by listed companies during the year was about 27.2 billion yuan, and the number of companies that have implemented repurchases during the year exceeded 400. More and more listed companies' repurchases also highlight their confidence in the future market to a certain extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4606ec8bf026e232ce9427bc25c625f\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(All individual stock information involved in this report is only a summary of public information, and does not constitute any profit forecast and investment rating)</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q\">追寻价值之路</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116937204","content_text":"不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场，经过多年发展后目前已经成为资本市场一种常用的手段，特别是最近十年里，美国上市公司回购规模大幅飙升。本文借鉴美股市场的经验，对股票回购的相关问题进行了讨论和梳理，主要内容分为五个部分：第一部分介绍了股票回购的基本概念，包括回购常见的四种方式以及股票回购的动因；第二部分讨论了股票回购的相关财务处理问题，涉及回购后是否选择注销股份的财务处理以及部分企业回购后为什么会出现净资产为负值的情况；第三部分梳理了股票回购有利于股价上涨的逻辑，一是直接增加公司股票的需求，二是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标，此外，从美股的表现来看，股票回购是股价收益率的重要组成部分，回购对市净率的影响要比市盈率更加显著；第四部分探讨了股票回购的潜在风险，主要包括市场流动性下降以及回购导致的上市公司高财务杠杆风险；第五部分是A股目前的回购情况介绍以及美股回购对A股的经验借鉴。风险提示：回购增加财务杠杆风险、历史经验不代表未来、宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动报告正文1，股票回购的基本概念介绍1.1 什么是股票回购？股票回购指的是上市公司利用现金等方式，从股票市场上回购本公司发行在外一定数额的股票的行为，这将减少企业流通在外的股票数量，从而达到市值管理、股权激励、稳定股价等积极作用。企业回购股票的资金来源主要有两个：一是内部资金，包括企业日常经营获得的净利润或者政府减税、返税等现金来源，以及企业原有的留存收益等自有资金；二是外部资金，通过发债等方式借钱加杠杆实现股份回购。股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场，特别是在上世纪80年代之后得到了快速发展。此前由于西方欧美等国家提倡保持公司资本的理论，同时回购行为本身存在着市场操纵的嫌疑，很少有公司进行股票回购，直至20世纪80年代，股票回购才开始逐渐发展。在经过了超过40年的发展后，目前股票回购已经成为发达资本市场一种常用的手段，被广泛运用于优化资本结构、提升公司价值，或者是在公司股价被低估时传递积极信号。1.2 股票回购常见的四种方式根据回购价格确定方式的不同，股票回购一般可以分为公开市场操作、现金要约回购、协议回购和可转让出售权回购四种基本方式。公开市场回购是当前美国市场中较为流行的一种股票回购方式，通过公开市场回购股票的上市公司将直接在公开市场上按照当前市场价格进行股票回购。在该方式下的股票回购较为灵活，上市公司能够根据自身情况，自由决定回购的时间、回购的数量等因素，而且在这一方式下进行的股票回购不需要支付额外的溢价。另一种较为普遍的股票回购方式是要约回购。上市公司通过要约回购股票的定价方式一般有两种，一是使用固定价格在约定期限内向股东发出要约以购买一定数量的股票，上市公司一般是在短期内需要大量公司股票的情况下选择该种定价方式，但短期内需求的大幅升高会导致回购股票需要支付一定的溢价。要约回购下的另一种定价方式是荷兰式拍卖回购，此种方式将在回购价格方面给予公司更大的灵活性，因此也被广泛采用。在荷兰式拍卖回购中，上市公司制定回购价格的范围和计划回购的数量，随后股东表示在价格区间范围内某一水平下愿意出售的股票数量，最后上市公司将汇总所有股东意愿并按照从低到高价格排序进行股票回购，直至达到上市公司既定的回购数量。与公开市场回购和要约回购相比，协议回购的透明度较低。因为在协议回购方式下，上市公司直接与部分股东进行私下协议，按照协议商定的价格和数量进行股票回购。这种方式在定价、交易时间以及支付方式等方面均较为自由，而且通常来看协议价低于市场价。可转让出售权回购是一种特殊的股票回购的方式，实施股票回购的公司给予股东在一定期限内可以以特定价格向公司出售其股票的权利，而且该权利一旦形成，就可以同依附的股票分离并进行交易。上市公司向其股东发行可转让出授权，不愿意出售股票的股东可以单独出售该权利，以满足各类股东的不同诉求。1.3 为什么要进行股票回购？股份回购能够带来的好处是多方面的。从公司整体来看，不论是使用内部还是外部资金回购股份均可以改善企业的资本结构、并减少对公司管理层的监督及约束成本，使用发债回购股份的方式还能够利用负债的税盾效应实现合理避税，并促使管理层专注于企业的债务偿还以及长期可持续经营。而对于那些在股票回购计划中卖出股票的股东来说，他们可以卖出股票获得流动性，此外与直接派发现金股息相比，由于资本所得一般不征税或税率较低，通过股票回购派发股利的方式能够实现有效的避税。在企业实行回购计划后仍然持有股票的股东同样也能够受益。由于完成股票回购后企业的净资本将明显减少，在其他条件不变的情况下，企业的净资产收益率、每股盈利、以及每股净资产等财务指标都将出现显著的提升。对上市公司股票回购的动机进行分类的话，我们也可以归为以下四个类别，一是财务动因，二是信号传递诉求，三是减少委托代理风险，四是增加公司控制权防止恶意收购。上市公司进行股票回购的财务动因主要与其资本结构以及股利政策相关，上市公司往往出于提高每股盈利、改善资本结构以及增加股东财富效应等与财务相关的原因进行股票回购。具体来看，股票回购对上市公司财务相关因素的改善主要体现在四个方面：第一，提升公司每股盈利。由于回购会减少上市公司在外流通股数量，因此在计算每股盈利时由于分母的减少，将直接带来EPS的上升，这或许也将提高公司股价。第二，实现股利避税，增加上市公司的股东财富。由于现金股利的税率高于资本利得税税率，通过采用股票回购而不是发放股利的方式对股东现金返还能够帮助股东实现合理避税。在中国，个人投资者持股期限在一个月以内的股息红利所得全额计入应纳税所得额，实际税负为20%，但资本利得暂免征收所得税。第三，优化公司资本结构，通过税盾效应提高公司价值。不论以何种方式进行股票回购，都将降低公司的所有者权益，而发债回购甚至还会增加公司的债务，从而提高公司的财务杠杆率，产生杠杆效应。因此对于财务杠杆较低的公司来说，这不仅能够优化公司的资本结构，还能够利用融资利息带来的税盾效应实现公司价值的提升。第四，股票回购具有较高的财务灵活性。上市公司向股东返还现金的方式一般有发放现金股利和股票回购两种方式，但发放现金股利的方式通常会使股东对未来股利形成预期，这就要求公司需要有稳定的现金流。而股票回购是偶尔发生的，上市公司在股票回购方式下能够相对自由地选择回购的金额、数量、时间等，相比于股票回购方式具有很大的财务灵活性。股票回购的信号传递诉求主要是基于信息不对称假设，上市公司通过股票回购能够向市场传递公司股价被低估的信号，因为只有在公司认为自己股票价格被低估的情况下才会进行股票回购。通过这种方式向市场传递积极信号，对公司的短期经营收益具有正面的影响。股票回购还有助于减少委托代理风险。由于上市公司的管理权和所有权分离，而代理人和委托人目标并不完全一致，可能存在委托人无法清楚认识代理人的目标偏失，进而造成委托人利益受损的情况。特别是在公司自由现金流较为充裕的情况，公司管理层可能会出于自身利益而进行过度投资或消费，从而侵占公司股东的利益。这种情况下，公司通过股票回购将现金返还给股东，既提高了现金流的使用效率也能够降低代理成本，减少委托代理风险。通过股票回购增加控制权、防止股权稀释以及恶意收购也是上市公司股票回购的动机之一。上世纪80年代随着美国杠杆并购浪潮的兴起，恶意收购活动也逐渐增加。为了防止公司被恶意收购，上市公司纷纷通过回购股票来达到提高股价、减少在外流通股、抵御敌意收购的目的。虽然现在恶意收购的情况有所减少，但将回购的股票用于管理层的股权激励计划也有助于避免股权稀释。2，股票回购的财务处理问题2.1 股票回购后注销与否的区别对于上市公司来说，在股票回购完成后公司可以将所回购的股票注销，也可以将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。被公司保留的“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票，由公司自己持有，并且可以在适当的时间再向市场出售、发行可转债或者作为对员工的激励等。但“库存股”的特性类似于未发行的股票，“库存股”没有投票权，也不具备分红的权利，甚至在公司破产后也不能变现，因此，“库存股”也不参与每股收益、净资产收益率以及每股净资产等指标的计算。所以在股票回购完成后，不论有没有注销所回购的股票，都不会影响每股收益、每股净资产以及净资产收益率等财务指标，因为即使作为“库存股”保留，这些股票也不会参与这些指标的计算。从这个角度来看，对公司来说，注销和不注销所回购的股票并不会存在较大的差异。但在多数情况下，企业回购股票完成后都会选择将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。我们统计了标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司股票回购后的处理情况，其中有30家上市公司选择了回购股票并保留了“库存股”，另外20家上市公司选择注销所回购的股票或未进行股票回购。企业之所以倾向于保留“库存股”，主要是因为“库存股”本身能够为企业带来一定的积极意义。一是在融资方面能够为公司提供充足的灵活性，降低融资成本。由于“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票，公司在存在融资需求时可以出售“库存股”；与配股或者增发新股相比，出售“库存股”获得资金的成本更低，不仅能够节省发行股票相关的监管及中介成本费用，并且可以在市场允许的情况下避免折价发售。二是有利于员工或管理层激励计划等的实施。“库存股”是企业向员工及管理层发放股权激励的重要的股票来源之一，因此对于美股上市公司来说，保留“库存股”能够为其实施股权激励计划等提供便利，避免因缺乏足够的股份来源导致激励计划无法实施的情况。三是为公司并购活动提供便利、防止公司遭受敌意收购。通过库存股换股的方式进行兼并收购能够为公司的并购行为提供一定的灵活性；此外，回购后保留“库存股”行为也能防止公司被恶意收购，一方面回购推升股价导致收购方难度增加，另一方面，“库存股”能够补充公司在外流通的股份数量，为公司应对恶意收购提供缓冲时间。四是有利于股票价格的稳定。当市场出现了非理性的波动时，企业可以通过调节在外流通股票的供给来平抑价格的波动，稳定股价，避免公司因为市场情绪等非理性因素受到较大的影响。2.2 回购如何导致企业净资产为负？股票回购能够带来的好处中，非常重要的一条是，回购股票能够提高EPS和公司整体的ROE，这主要是因为回购股票会减少企业的净资本，分母的明显下降会带来包括EPS以及ROE在内的显著提升。在更为夸张的情况下，部分美股上市公司采取了发债回购的形式回购大量的已发行股份，造成负债总额大于资产总额、而净资产为负值的情况。在这种情况下，ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。那么美国的这些上市公司是如何通过回购使得净资产为负的呢？这背后最主要的原因还是在于财务报表中权益资产账面价值与二级市场中股票市值存在着巨大的差异，二级市场上的股票价格并不会在资产负债表里得到反映，所以股票的账面价值和市场价值是不对等的。企业在进行回购时，主要参考的是股票的市场价值，因此回购股票的成本往往会相对账面价值存在溢价。因此不论是回购后转入库存股、在计算股东权益时作为抵减项，又或是回购后注销时冲减留存收益科目，只要回购股票成本的溢价过大，就会可能导致留存收益科目转负，甚至导致公司整体的净资产也呈现出负值。以星巴克公司为例。星巴克公布的2019财年（从2018年9月30日至2019年9月30日）年度报告中，企业总资产从2018财年的241.6亿美元下降至192.2亿美元，但总负债却从2018财年的229.8亿美元上升至254.5亿美元，这意味着星巴克公司净资产即所有者权益从2018财年的11.8亿美元下降至2019财年的-62.3亿美元。从星巴克公司资产负债表中的股东权益细分科目的情况来看，2019年公司净资产小于0主要的原因是留存收益科目出现了大幅的下降，2018财年星巴克留存收益尚有接近15亿美元的余额，但到了2019财年末，留存收益大幅下降至-57.7亿美元，这直接导致了星巴克的股东权益大幅转负，此后公司的留存收益科目一直维持负值状态。而留存收益为负值的主要原因在于股票回购。以2019财年留存收益首次转负为例，在2019财年期内，星巴克公司进行了大量的股票回购，在外发行的股本数量由2018财年的13.1亿股下降至11.8亿股，总股本减少了10万美元，资本公积减少了6.1亿美元，企业回购股票的溢价部分则冲减了高达95.2亿美元的留存收益。从所有者权益变动情况来看，2019财年星巴克留存收益的增减主要是受到会计政策变更、净利润、股票回购以及现金分红的影响。如果不考虑股票回购的影响，会计政策变更及净利润分别使得留存收益增加4.96亿和35.99亿美元，即使是进行了18亿美元的现金分红，星巴克2019财年的留存收益仍然会较期初有所增加。但在股票回购的影响下，星巴克2019财年的留存收益不仅没有增加，反而大幅减少，甚至出现了大额负值，最终使得净资产小于0。对于回购股票后转入库存股的财务处理，我们可以参考麦当劳公司的案例。早在2016财年，麦当劳公司的净资产便已经小于0；此后，麦当劳仍在不断地发债回购流通股并转入库存股票，导致企业净资产持续下降。截至2019财年末（2019年12月31日），麦当劳公司总资产由上期末的328亿美元上升至475亿美元，同时总负债也由391亿美元大幅上升至557亿美元，因此，麦当劳公司的股东权益从2018年底的-63亿美元下降至了-82亿美元，降至了历史最低。2020及2021财年公司股东权益虽然有所回升，但仍然维持负值。从股东权益的细分项来看，2019年麦当劳公司股东权益持续下降的主要是因为库存股的成本在持续上升。影响股东权益的资本公积、留存收益以及其他综合收益科目2019财年的数值都较2018财年有所上升，股本科目维持不变，仅有备抵项库存股从2018财年的-615亿美元下降至-663亿美元（这意味着购买库存股的成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元），并导致股东权益明显下降。2020及2021财年虽然库存股成本还在持续上升，但由于资本公积及留存收益科目都有显著增加，因此股东权益整体小幅回升。根据所有者权益变动表的情况来看，2019财年，麦当劳公司持续回购了2500万的股票，总的回购成本达到了49.8亿美元；同时使用了420万股库存股完成了股票行权认购计划，转出库存股金额1.8亿美元。因此，截至2019财年末，麦当劳公司回购库存股数量共计9.14亿股，累计回购库存股的总成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元，并导致股东权益持续下降至-82亿美元。3，股票回购有利于推动股价上涨3.1 回购推动股票价格上涨的主要逻辑回购促进股票价格上涨的机制主要有两个，一是上市公司通过回购股票能够直接增加公司股票的需求来提高股价，这也是股票回购产生影响的一个最直接渠道。事实上，自2008年金融危机以来，上市公司本身便是美股市场中一个非常重要的参与者。根据美联储统计的数据，2009年至2021年期间，权益市场的主要参与者中，ETF基金累计净购买了2.77万亿美元的股票，美国家庭及非营利机构累计净购买了1.17万亿美元，而共同基金以及其他金融机构分别累计净出售了901亿美元和2.27万亿美元的权益资产。非金融企业因回购股票而交易的金额在过去十年里出现了大幅飙升，仅该部分累计交易的金额便达到了近5万亿美元的水平。我们可以假设公司A将回购20%的股份，并模拟其实施股票回购前后的股票价格表现来研究回购的影响。根据财务估值模型，公司市值取决于未来产生的现金流或者净利润等指标，因此股票回购的行为将不会影响公司的总市值。我们假设回购前公司A有200亿股流通股，每股价值10元，总市值为2000亿元；本次A公司将回购20%的股份，回购后还有160亿份股流通在外，由于总市值维持不变为2000亿元，因此每股股票价格将上升至12.5元，即与回购前相比，股价上升了25%。回购推动股价上涨的第二个机制是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标。由于公司A的回购行为不会导致公司净利润出现变化，回购前后净利润均为500亿元，因此在回购后，A公司的EPS将由2.5元上升至3.125元，提升幅度为25%。从股市整体来看也是如此，历史数据显示，标普500指数EPS的走势与标普500指数回购规模的走势保持高度的一致性。从走势来看，2000年以来标普500指数EPS与回购规模的走势大致经历了三个阶段，2000年至2007年，指数EPS缓慢提升，公司回购的规模也在不断提升，指数回购减少的股本数量在持续上升。2008年金融危机时期，EPS出现了大幅下降，公司回购也出现了断崖式的下跌。随着美国经济逐渐恢复，2010年开始标普500指数EPS和回购金额都再次趋势上升，2020年新冠疫情期间两者同步出现了短暂的下降。ROE作为投研体系中重要的财务指标，在公司进行股票回购后也会出现明显提升。以苹果公司为例，其上市公司股票回购在2012年以前基本是没有的，2013年是个转折点，然后回购金额开始大幅飙升。如果单看净利润增速，苹果公司2012财年是417亿美元，2021财年是947亿美元，净利润的年化复合增速只有9.5%。这个增速放到A股市场，完全看不出是一个高科技公司，更像是一个公用事业公司。但通过大量的股票回购，苹果公司的ROE从2013年的30%左右提高到了2021年的150%。到2021财年，苹果公司回购普通股的金额高达860亿美元，几乎可以抵上当年的净利润。股票回购不仅会提升上市公司的ROE，在更为夸张的情况下，甚至会使得公司的ROE转为负值。在A股市场中我们也经常看到ROE为负的公司，这种情况都是上市公司是亏损的，所以净利润（分子）是负的。而美股市场中，有不少公司，是因为回购多了，把净资产（分母）弄成了负的了。这种情况下，ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。下面这个表报告了麦当劳公司从2007至2021财年股票回购与ROE变化情况，可以开看到，在2014年以前，公司的ROE大致在35%左右。然后开始了大量回购，2015年ROE到了63%，2016年以后公司的股本为负，使得ROE都是负的了。净资产为负，这在传统意义的教科书上，意味着企业资不抵债，是一个濒临破产的信号，但在当前的美股市场中，很多这类的公司股价却在持续上涨。3.2 股票回购将会推升股价收益率股票收益来自于股息红利和市值变动，市值变动又受到盈利和估值的影响，所以从长期投资的角度来看，股票收益率可以分解为股利回购收益、股票估值和企业盈利这三个部分的影响，其中，股利回购收益在股票总回报中占据着非常重要的地位，在美国的股票市场，股利回购收益甚至可以说是股票资产主要的收益来源。因此，股票回购会对股价收益率产生明显的影响，我们能看到全收益指数和普通指数的缺口会随着回购而增大。自1989年初至今超过30年的投资期内，即使经历了2000年互联网泡沫和2008年金融危机这两次重大的危机，投资美股仍然会带来十分丰厚的回报，而其中，股利收益占据了非常重要的地位，这一点体现在标普500全收益指数和标普500指数长期走势的差距中。标普500全收益指数在标普500指数的基础上进行了调整，将样本股分红计入了指数收益，调整后的标普500全收益指数累计涨幅是接近30倍，而标普500指数涨幅仅为14.2倍。Philip U. Straehl等人（The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal）对1871-2014年期间美国股市长期收益率进行了深入的研究，研究发现，包含公司派发的股息以及回购股票产生的收益在内，股利回购收益能够解释美国股票历史收益率的绝大部分，特别是在1970年股票回购得到快速发展之后，回购对提升股价收益率的影响更为显著。1871年至2014年期间，美股实际收益率（剔除通胀后）约为7%，其中，股息收益率为4.5%，如果考虑公司回购带来的收益，总的股利回购收益率将上升至4.89%，占美股实际收益率的三分之二以上。上述结论在调整美股的研究区间后仍然成立，1901年至2014年期间，美股实际收益率为6.58%，其中来自于股息收益的部分达到了4.29%，加上企业回购部分，总的股利回购收益率达到4.78%；1970年至2014年期间，美股产生的股息收益为3.03%，将企业回购纳入考虑后这一部分收益上升至4.26%，同期美股实际收益率为6.25%。3.3 回购后股票市净率将较市盈率出现显著变化虽然股票回购能够促进股票价格上涨，但并不一定会影响估值。更为准确的说法是，股票回购不会影响市盈率，但是会提高市净率，所以在上市公司大幅回购股票后，我们会看到PB相对于PE出现明显变化。之所以出现这种差异，主要是在于股份回购不会影响公司总市值以及净利润，但是会导致权益减少，这会使得公司在市盈率维持不变的情况下市净率出现明显的上升。我们假设公司A按照市价回购了20%的股份，回购后公司总权益将由2000亿元下降至1600亿元，在公司总市值维持不变的情况下，市净率将由原先的1倍上升至1.25倍，而由于公司净利润未受到影响，市盈率将继续维持在回购前4倍的水平。即使从整个市场角度来看，市盈率和市净率也存在这个关系。我们对标普500指数的市盈率与市净率进行了标准化，从走势来看，随着2010年后标普500指数回购金额的大幅提升，标普500指数的PB上升幅度要明显比PE更大，从2010年初到2022年4月 25日 ，标普500指数的PE大概从19倍上升到了21.3倍，PB从2.0倍上升到了4.3倍。在股票回购下，公司股价出现大幅提升，但市盈率却并未受到影响，所以我们看到目前标普500指数的市盈率为21.3倍，在1991年以来56.9%的历史分位数，远远谈不上高估。这是因为公司的EPS也出现了相应的提升，但事实上，对于公司价值来说，通过股本减少带来的EPS提升并没有为公司创造更多的价值，更大程度上只是数字上的游戏。也正是因为这个原因，如果我们从市净率来看，当前标普500指数市净率为4.3倍，已经达到1991年年初以来88.6%的历史分位点了。4，股票回购的潜在风险4.1 股市回购或将导致市场流动性下降美股过去的十年长牛是二战以来美股历史上持续时间第二长的大牛市，但是却是唯一一次在成交量明显下降背景下走出的牛市行情。从2010年开始，随着指数价格的持续上涨，标普500指数的成交量却逐年下降，2022年3月底标普500指数的成交量仅174亿，已经降至了上世纪90年代末的水平。导致美股出现价升量跌情况的一个重要原因是，上市公司大量回购股票使得市场上的流通股份数越来越少，这也会造成市场流动性的下降。以苹果公司为例，由于2013年以来公司不断加大回购股票的规模，当前市场上流通股数量为163.2亿股，相较于2012年底的峰值水平下降了近40%。当然，被动投资规模的大幅上升也是造成美股成交量大幅下降的重要原因，而美股回购能够强化牛市中被动投资的正反馈逻辑，进一步促进被动投资规模的提升。上市公司回购股票带来股价上升，由于被动投资具有低费率、牛市中长期业绩好于主动型基金等优势，投资者纷纷买入被动型基金，增加的资金流入指数成分股，叠加上市公司持续回购股票，进一步推动股指上涨，资金流入被动投资的规模加大。这一正向反馈模式在过去十年的美股市场中不断持续，所以我们看到，2009年后美股市场中ETF的资产规模出现了大幅提升。而在流动性大幅衰减的情况下，指数上涨的趋势一旦出现了扭转，被动投资的正反馈机制也将立即反转，对市场的下跌形成推波助澜之势。如此大规模资金的涌出很容易造成踩踏事件，大概率将带来非常严重的后果。4.2 回购促使上市公司将财务杠杆用到极致回购本身可以算是公司股利政策的一种，最近几年的变化在于，“发债回购”的方式受到越来越多公司的青睐，这使得上市公司把财务杠杆用到了极致。很多上市公司通过大量回购股份，使得净资产转负、资产负债率上升至100%以上，形成了传统意义上企业财务管理的资不抵债局面。在前面介绍回购涉及的财务原理时举的麦当劳公司是一个例子，公司资产负债率2014年时还只有63%，2018年最高到了119%，近几年仍然超过100%。星巴克公司是另一个例子，2017年时资产负债率还只有62%，2019年最高到了132%，2021年仍有117%。美国上市公司债务杠杆率高得离谱，财务杠杆都用到了极致。仅以下表的标普500成分股为例，资产负债率最高的50家公司，资产负债率都超过了90%。财务杠杆与资产负债率是衡量财务风险的重要指标，也是企业信用评级体系中重要的参考因素。企业财务杠杆与资产负债率的上升必然会带来财务风险的上升，也势必影响企业的信用评级。我们统计了当前美国标普500指数成分股主体公司目前的信用评级情况。数据显示，标普500指数成分股中约八成以上的公司主体信用评级为投资级，有超过10%的企业投资主体信用评级为投机级。此外，值得注意的是，当前投资级主体公司中，绝大部分企业的信用评级是投资级的最低等级，即Baa级，这意味着在外部经济环境出现大幅波动的情况下，大部分企业或许将面临信用评级从投资级降至投机级的风险。如果将公司样本范围缩小至标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司，可以看到公司信用评级为投机级的数量占比明显上升。穆迪分类评级下，这50家公司中，投机级企业数量占比为23.3%，标普评级分类下为36.2%，均要明显高于全部标普500成分股下的相应分类占比。而同样，在投资级主体公司中，Baa（穆迪投资级最低评级）或者BBB（标普投资级最低评级）占据了绝大的比例。大幅发债回购对企业信用评级的影响是显著的。2015年麦当劳的高级无担保债券穆迪信用评级连续下降两级，主要就是因为其计划通过发债加大发放股息以及股票回购的力度。2015年5月穆迪将麦当劳公司高级无担保债券评级从A2下调至A3，促成此次评级下调的部分原因在于麦当劳计划通过分发股利以及股票回购加速向股东返还80亿至90亿美元。穆迪认为，麦当劳加速股票回购以及高额派发股息的指引是其采取激进财务政策的体现，这将导致债务水平大幅上升。2015年11月，由于麦当劳公司宣布将通过发债提高向股东返还的金额，穆迪再次下调麦当劳企业信用评级至Baa1。此外，2015年标普公司两次下调麦当劳评级，麦当劳长期发行人信用评级从A级下降至A-再降至BBB+级，同年惠誉评级公司将麦当劳长期发行人违约评级从A级直接下调至BBB+级，并在2016年再次下调至BBB级别。星巴克公司的经历也同样如此。2017年11月，穆迪下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至A3级，下调原因是因为星巴克计划在2018至2020年通过分红和股份回购的方式向股东返还150亿美元，返还的资金部分将来源于额外的债务。穆迪认为这将导致债务水平显著上升以及信用指标的实质性恶化，因此下调星巴克公司债券评级。2018年6月，穆迪再次下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至Baa1级，下调原因在于星巴克决定大幅增加债务以将返还股东金额提高至250亿美元。标普与惠誉评级公司在星巴克公司决定发债回购股份后，同样下调企业评级，星巴克评级从A级下降至BBB+级。当然，债务杠杆率高本身并不是股价下跌的充分条件，但确实也埋下了企业债务违约的隐患，特别是在美联储加息周期中，高财务杠杆带来的信用风险正在持续上升。5，美股回购对A股的经验借鉴和美股市场相比，当前A股上市公司股票回购的规模仍然属于极低水平。截至2022年4月26日，2021财年，美股上市公司用于回购普通股和优先股的金额共计达到了7.37万亿人民币，而同期A股上市公司股票回购金额仅为1211亿元，不足美股的2%。不过从趋势上来看，2018年股票回购新规发布后，A股上市公司回购积极性明显提升，回购规模大幅扩张。2012年全年，A股仅有11家上市公司进行了股票回购，回购金额累计25亿元；2021年全年，A股进行股票回购的上市公司数量已经上升至了994家，全年累计回购金额达到了1211亿元。我们在《A股历次回购热潮的启示》一文中复盘了A股历次回购热潮中上市公司的表现，发现1）低估值公司在回购预案发布后超额收益明显；2）公司回购金额占总市值比例与超额收益正相关；3）公司回购对股价长期存在支撑作用。因此不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。一方面，我们认为，随着未来A股上市公司进行更多的企业回购，公司股价上涨还有潜在空间。另一方面，今年年初以来市场兴起了新一轮股市回购热潮，截至4月15日，上市公司年内已实施的回购金额约272亿元，年内已实施回购的公司数量逾400家，越来越多的上市公司回购一定程度上也凸显了对未来市场的信心。（本报告中所有涉及的个股信息，仅为公开信息汇总，不构成任何盈利预测和投资评级）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9019831705,"gmtCreate":1648570367363,"gmtModify":1676534355805,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news&nbsp;","listText":"Good news&nbsp;","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019831705","repostId":"1127392287","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127392287","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648556072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127392287?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-29 20:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: $3 Trillion Back in Focus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127392287","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Stock has risen 11 straight days, adding roughly $400 billionSeen earnings estimates upgraded; defie","content":"<div>\n<p>Stock has risen 11 straight days, adding roughly $400 billionSeen earnings estimates upgraded; defies report of output cutApple iPhone SE 3 smartphones during the sales launch at the Apple Inc. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/apple-shares-set-for-the-longest-winning-streak-since-2003?srnd=premium\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: $3 Trillion Back in Focus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: $3 Trillion Back in Focus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-29 20:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/apple-shares-set-for-the-longest-winning-streak-since-2003?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock has risen 11 straight days, adding roughly $400 billionSeen earnings estimates upgraded; defies report of output cutApple iPhone SE 3 smartphones during the sales launch at the Apple Inc. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/apple-shares-set-for-the-longest-winning-streak-since-2003?srnd=premium\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/apple-shares-set-for-the-longest-winning-streak-since-2003?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127392287","content_text":"Stock has risen 11 straight days, adding roughly $400 billionSeen earnings estimates upgraded; defies report of output cutApple iPhone SE 3 smartphones during the sales launch at the Apple Inc. flagship store in New York, U.S., on March 18.Photographer: Gabby Jones/BloombergApple Inc. shares are heading for their longest winning streak since 2003, when the iPhone hadn’t even launched andNokia Oyjwas still one of the top cellphone makers in the world.Shares in the world’s largest company rose 0.2% premarket on Tuesday, extending gains to the 11th straight day -- a rare feat in its 41-year stock market history. During the streak, it has added $407 billion in market value, roughly the size of Walmart Inc.Leading the charge in big technology stocks bouncing back after a dismal start to 2022, Apple has seen its earnings estimates being upgraded by 7.2% this year by analysts, much faster than other stocks in the Faang group. Shares have also managed to dodge a Nikkei report about production cuts, leaving the stock just 1% away from covering 2022 losses and 4.7% away from a $3 trillion market value.The rally in big tech even as 10-year Treasury yields reached 2.5% has left investors scratching their heads. The Cupertino, California-based company is perhaps living up to its reputation as a relative haven in a turbulent time for tech.For sales trader Jim Dixon at Mirabaud Securities, it’s the mom-and-pop investors behind the stunning rally. “Quite remarkable for a company trading on more than 28x forward earnings in a rising rates environments with supply chain issues/inflation,” he said.Dixon also pointed to the implied volatility of the stock, which is at a discount to realized, commenting that  “investors are effectively saying that it is smooth sailing going forward.”What’s more, on Sunday Apple bagged Best Picture Oscar for “CODA,” becoming the first streaming service to win Hollywood’s top award, beating out streaming pioneer Netflix Inc.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909849432,"gmtCreate":1658851681026,"gmtModify":1676536217738,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points&nbsp;","listText":"Good points&nbsp;","text":"Good points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909849432","repostId":"1113527890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113527890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658849122,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113527890?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 23:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"With the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113527890","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"摘要：关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管谷歌股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>Key valuation metrics indicate that GOOG is trading at a discount to historical valuation standards. Despite<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The stock price may fall in the short term due to economic news, but its long-term business orientation can increase its free cash flow.</p><p>Alphabet Inc. 's (NASDAQ: GOOG) valuation doesn't match the tech company's solid and recession-proof market position.</p><p>Google's companies generate large amounts of regular, predictable, low-risk cash flows that are expected to increase over time. Google's strong free cash flow growth and long-term good yields make it a very attractive investment option.</p><p>Lower P/E relative to Google's sales potential reduces risk, and the ability to increase cash flow in a variety of market conditions makes GOOG one of the best stocks to invest in.</p><p><b>01. Huge free cash flow and shareholder-friendly management</b></p><p>Google's management has proven that they have a long-term vision and use cash in a reasonable, value-adding way. Google is at the forefront of numerous industries at the same time, whether it's the acquisition of YouTube a few years ago, a smart and visionary investment in the cloud market, or more recently with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(Amazon) partnered to monetize e-commerce expansion.</p><p>As a result of this foresight, the company has seen steady growth in revenue and free cash flow. Investors are particularly interested in Google's free cash flow growth because free cash flow is a statistic that indicates how much cash a company can return to shareholders in the form of Dividend or share buybacks.</p><p>Google is a real beast when it comes to cash flow. In the most recent quarter alone, the company received $25.1 billion in cash from operations. After deducting $9.8 billion in capital expenditures, the company's capital expenditures were $15.3 billion. Google's free cash flow growth is phenomenal, with total free cash flow up 141.9% over the past five years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dbcd3cdc516fbd322c81f53a50d258\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>02. What does Google do with this cash?</b></p><p>It uses a fair portion of its free cash flow to buy back shares in the market. Alphabet's board has approved the company's $70 billion share repurchase, and the deal will take place when management deems fit. Google's free cash flow and share buybacks have increased over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d5ac9d99c59d51c1f088a4a2f90ebf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p>The free cash flow trend is positive, and the company is about to experience a major trigger that could propel its cash flow to new heights.</p><p><b>03. Growth catalyst: YouTube/Shopify Partnership</b></p><p>The move comes just days after YouTube made headlines by announcing a new partnership with e-commerce giant Shopify.</p><p>As part of the partnership, Shopify will integrate its shopping system into creators' YouTube pages, allowing viewers to shop directly on YouTube without needing to leave the site.</p><p>The partnership is helped by two big factors: YouTube has 2 billion logged-in users every month, and Shopify is the leading platform for small businesses. There are considerable synergies in this relationship, with YouTube's creative community set to gain a lot from an integrated shopping service and Shopify benefiting from entering a potentially undersupplied market.</p><p>In my opinion, SMBs have a lot of overlap with the two core users of YouTube or Shopify platforms. YouTube will be able to benefit from Shopify's inventory syncing expertise, while producers will be able to simply make their products available for purchase on their channels, resulting in a seamless buying experience. The Shopify connection on YouTube also allows producers to sell merchandise during live streams, which could change not only the e-commerce business, but Google as well.</p><p>I am very excited about Google's potential and believe that Google has very good revenue opportunities here. Google mainly pockets YouTube through advertising, but it also offers subscription services like YouTube Premium and YouTube TV. A partnership with e-commerce will be announced soon, which could be a powerful accelerator for the development of excellent sales for video streaming platforms.</p><p><b>04. Google's yield is 5%, and the stock is very cheap</b></p><p>Investing is simple. You are buying quality businesses that have steady cash flow within their respective industries and the potential to attract long-term growth. In ideal circumstances, this increase is greatly discounted, as is the case with Google.</p><p>The market expects EPS of $5.47 in 2022, implying EPS of 5.1% at the current price of $110. (Implied P/E 19.8 x). Based on expected earnings of $6.46 per share next year, Google's earnings yield will rise to 6.0%. (Implied return multiple 16.8 x).</p><p>With the consensus estimate of annual earnings growth of 18.1%, the yield of 5% (equivalent to 20 times P/E) is quite low, indicating that the market is too worried about Google's growth. However, the relationship between YouTube and Shopify could help Google's revenue growth, which is not fully reflected in current projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9690baf4c709b9e2a5c130e51231eb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Revenue Estimate (Google)</p><p>In addition to P/E, valuation indices have stabilized recently, suggesting that the market's risk aversion towards Google has risen.</p><p>Valuation metrics such as the price-to-free cash flow ratio, enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio, and enterprise value-to-cash flow ratio all fell significantly in 2022, indicating that the market has begun to underestimate Google's growth prospects.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/086910ae0286dcf744198b0d8ac52fb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>05. Why Google's valuation is lower</b></p><p>Google's cash flow relies heavily on the company's performance in digital advertising. A recession has the potential to reduce Google's ad revenue, which could be reflected in lower free cash flow.</p><p>Considering the amount of free cash flow Google has, the technology business has handled the downturn well. A drop in e-commerce spending won't undermine YouTube and Shopify's alliance before the recession begins, but it may take longer for the market to recognize its true potential.</p><p><b>06. Conclusion</b></p><p>Google is a great deal at 16.8 x P/E, and I bought this stock in a big way with the current stock price drop.</p><p>Google isn't the only big tech company taking a hit right now, but the company's cash flow is very strong. Although the company's stock may fall in the short term because of economic news, the company's long-term business orientation is quite strong and free cash flow is increasing nicely.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith the spread of market concerns, free cash flow may become Google's market raft?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街大事件</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-26 23:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary:</b>Key valuation metrics indicate that GOOG is trading at a discount to historical valuation standards. Despite<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The stock price may fall in the short term due to economic news, but its long-term business orientation can increase its free cash flow.</p><p>Alphabet Inc. 's (NASDAQ: GOOG) valuation doesn't match the tech company's solid and recession-proof market position.</p><p>Google's companies generate large amounts of regular, predictable, low-risk cash flows that are expected to increase over time. Google's strong free cash flow growth and long-term good yields make it a very attractive investment option.</p><p>Lower P/E relative to Google's sales potential reduces risk, and the ability to increase cash flow in a variety of market conditions makes GOOG one of the best stocks to invest in.</p><p><b>01. Huge free cash flow and shareholder-friendly management</b></p><p>Google's management has proven that they have a long-term vision and use cash in a reasonable, value-adding way. Google is at the forefront of numerous industries at the same time, whether it's the acquisition of YouTube a few years ago, a smart and visionary investment in the cloud market, or more recently with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(Amazon) partnered to monetize e-commerce expansion.</p><p>As a result of this foresight, the company has seen steady growth in revenue and free cash flow. Investors are particularly interested in Google's free cash flow growth because free cash flow is a statistic that indicates how much cash a company can return to shareholders in the form of Dividend or share buybacks.</p><p>Google is a real beast when it comes to cash flow. In the most recent quarter alone, the company received $25.1 billion in cash from operations. After deducting $9.8 billion in capital expenditures, the company's capital expenditures were $15.3 billion. Google's free cash flow growth is phenomenal, with total free cash flow up 141.9% over the past five years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09dbcd3cdc516fbd322c81f53a50d258\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>02. What does Google do with this cash?</b></p><p>It uses a fair portion of its free cash flow to buy back shares in the market. Alphabet's board has approved the company's $70 billion share repurchase, and the deal will take place when management deems fit. Google's free cash flow and share buybacks have increased over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d5ac9d99c59d51c1f088a4a2f90ebf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p>The free cash flow trend is positive, and the company is about to experience a major trigger that could propel its cash flow to new heights.</p><p><b>03. Growth catalyst: YouTube/Shopify Partnership</b></p><p>The move comes just days after YouTube made headlines by announcing a new partnership with e-commerce giant Shopify.</p><p>As part of the partnership, Shopify will integrate its shopping system into creators' YouTube pages, allowing viewers to shop directly on YouTube without needing to leave the site.</p><p>The partnership is helped by two big factors: YouTube has 2 billion logged-in users every month, and Shopify is the leading platform for small businesses. There are considerable synergies in this relationship, with YouTube's creative community set to gain a lot from an integrated shopping service and Shopify benefiting from entering a potentially undersupplied market.</p><p>In my opinion, SMBs have a lot of overlap with the two core users of YouTube or Shopify platforms. YouTube will be able to benefit from Shopify's inventory syncing expertise, while producers will be able to simply make their products available for purchase on their channels, resulting in a seamless buying experience. The Shopify connection on YouTube also allows producers to sell merchandise during live streams, which could change not only the e-commerce business, but Google as well.</p><p>I am very excited about Google's potential and believe that Google has very good revenue opportunities here. Google mainly pockets YouTube through advertising, but it also offers subscription services like YouTube Premium and YouTube TV. A partnership with e-commerce will be announced soon, which could be a powerful accelerator for the development of excellent sales for video streaming platforms.</p><p><b>04. Google's yield is 5%, and the stock is very cheap</b></p><p>Investing is simple. You are buying quality businesses that have steady cash flow within their respective industries and the potential to attract long-term growth. In ideal circumstances, this increase is greatly discounted, as is the case with Google.</p><p>The market expects EPS of $5.47 in 2022, implying EPS of 5.1% at the current price of $110. (Implied P/E 19.8 x). Based on expected earnings of $6.46 per share next year, Google's earnings yield will rise to 6.0%. (Implied return multiple 16.8 x).</p><p>With the consensus estimate of annual earnings growth of 18.1%, the yield of 5% (equivalent to 20 times P/E) is quite low, indicating that the market is too worried about Google's growth. However, the relationship between YouTube and Shopify could help Google's revenue growth, which is not fully reflected in current projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9690baf4c709b9e2a5c130e51231eb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Revenue Estimate (Google)</p><p>In addition to P/E, valuation indices have stabilized recently, suggesting that the market's risk aversion towards Google has risen.</p><p>Valuation metrics such as the price-to-free cash flow ratio, enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio, and enterprise value-to-cash flow ratio all fell significantly in 2022, indicating that the market has begun to underestimate Google's growth prospects.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/086910ae0286dcf744198b0d8ac52fb6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data source: YCharts</p><p><b>05. Why Google's valuation is lower</b></p><p>Google's cash flow relies heavily on the company's performance in digital advertising. A recession has the potential to reduce Google's ad revenue, which could be reflected in lower free cash flow.</p><p>Considering the amount of free cash flow Google has, the technology business has handled the downturn well. A drop in e-commerce spending won't undermine YouTube and Shopify's alliance before the recession begins, but it may take longer for the market to recognize its true potential.</p><p><b>06. Conclusion</b></p><p>Google is a great deal at 16.8 x P/E, and I bought this stock in a big way with the current stock price drop.</p><p>Google isn't the only big tech company taking a hit right now, but the company's cash flow is very strong. Although the company's stock may fall in the short term because of economic news, the company's long-term business orientation is quite strong and free cash flow is increasing nicely.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XIlb0xjCoMMc1Zj3BYlbuQ\">华尔街大事件</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4576":"AR","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4538":"云计算","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XIlb0xjCoMMc1Zj3BYlbuQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1113527890","content_text":"摘要：关键估值指标表明，GOOG的交易价格低于历史估值标准。尽管谷歌股票价格或因经济消息而在短期下跌，但其长期业务导向下能够增加其自由现金流。Alphabet公司(纳斯达克股票代码:GOOG)的估值与这家科技公司稳健且能抵御经济衰退的市场地位不符。谷歌的公司产生了大量定期的、可预测的、低风险的现金流，预计随着时间的推移会增加。谷歌强劲的自由现金流增长和长期良好的收益率使其成为一个非常有吸引力的投资选择。相对于谷歌的销售潜力而言，较低的市盈率降低了风险，而且在各种市场条件下增加现金流的能力使GOOG成为最值得投资的股票之一。01、巨大的自由现金流和股东友好型管理谷歌的管理层已经证明，他们的眼光是长远的，并以合理的、增值的方式使用现金。谷歌同时走在了众多行业的前列，无论是几年前收购YouTube，还是在云市场上明智而有远见的投资，还是最近与亚马逊(Amazon)合作，利用电子商务扩张获利。由于这种远见卓识，公司的收入和自由现金流稳步增长。投资者对谷歌的自由现金流增长特别感兴趣，因为自由现金流是一个统计数据，它表明了一家公司可以将多少现金以股息或股票回购的形式返还给股东。说到现金流，谷歌真是一头猛兽。仅在最近一个季度，该公司就从运营中获得了251亿美元的现金。扣除98亿美元的资本支出后，该公司的资本支出为153亿美元。谷歌的自由现金流增长非常惊人，在过去五年里，总自由现金流增长了141.9%。数据来源：YCharts02、谷歌用这些现金做什么?它用相当一部分自由现金流在市场上回购股票。Alphabet董事会已批准该公司回购700亿美元的股票，交易将在管理层认为合适的时候进行。谷歌的自由现金流和股票回购随着时间的推移而增加。数据来源：YCharts自由现金流趋势为正，该公司即将经历一个可能推动其现金流达到新高度的主要触发器。03、增长催化剂：YouTube/Shopify Partnership就在几天前，YouTube宣布与电子商务巨头Shopify建立新的合作伙伴关系，成为头条新闻。作为合作的一部分，Shopify将把其购物系统整合到创作者的YouTube页面，允许观众直接在YouTube上购物，而不需要离开网站。这次合作得益于两大因素:YouTube每月有20亿登录用户，Shopify是面向小企业的领先平台。这种关系有相当大的协同效应，YouTube的创意社区将从综合购物服务中获益良多，而Shopify将从进入一个可能供应不足的市场中获益。在我看来，中小企业与YouTube或Shopify平台这两个核心用户有很多重叠之处。YouTube将能够受益于Shopify的库存同步专业知识，而生产者将能够简单地使他们的产品可在他们的渠道上购买，从而产生无缝的购买体验。YouTube上的Shopify连接还允许制作人在直播过程中销售商品，这不仅可能改变电商业务，也可能改变谷歌。我对谷歌的潜力感到非常兴奋，相信谷歌在这里有非常好的收入机会。谷歌主要通过广告将YouTube收入囊中，但它也提供YouTube Premium和YouTube TV等订阅服务。与电子商务的合作将很快公布，这可能会成为视频流媒体平台出色销售发展的强大加速器。04、谷歌的收益率为5%，股票非常便宜投资很简单。你购买的是在各自行业内具有稳定现金流和吸引长期增长潜力的优质企业。在理想情况下，这种增加被大大打折，就像谷歌的情况一样。市场预计2022年每股收益为5.47美元，这意味着按目前110美元的价格计算，每股收益为5.1%。(隐含市盈率19.8倍)。根据明年预期每股收益6.46美元计算，谷歌的收益收益率将升至6.0%。(隐含收益倍数16.8倍)。在市场普遍预期年收益增长18.1%的情况下，5%的收益率(相当于20倍的市盈率)是相当低的，这表明市场对谷歌的增长过于担忧。然而，YouTube和Shopify之间的关系可能有助于谷歌的收入增长，目前的预测并没有完全反映出来。收入估算（谷歌）除了市盈率之外，估值指数最近也趋于稳定，这表明市场对谷歌的避险情绪有所上升。2022年，价格与自由现金流比率、企业价值与EBITDA比率、企业价值与现金流比率等估值指标均大幅下降，表明市场已经开始低估谷歌的增长前景。数据来源：YCharts05、为什么谷歌的估值会更低谷歌的现金流严重依赖于公司在数字广告领域的表现。经济衰退有可能减少谷歌的广告收入，这可能反映在自由现金流下降。考虑到谷歌的自由现金流数额，该技术业务很好地应对了经济低迷。在经济衰退开始之前，电子商务支出的下降不会破坏YouTube和Shopify的联盟，但市场可能需要更长的时间才能认识到其真正的潜力。06、结论在16.8倍市盈率的情况下，谷歌非常划算，在当前股价下跌的情况下，我大举买入了这只股票。谷歌并不是目前唯一一家遭受打击的大型科技公司，但该公司的现金流非常强劲。尽管该公司的股票可能会因为经济消息而在短期内下跌，但该公司的长期业务导向相当强，自由现金流正在很好地增加。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9063119898,"gmtCreate":1651428682175,"gmtModify":1676534904375,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies&nbsp;","listText":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies&nbsp;","text":"Will hold the shares as long as they are stable companies","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9063119898","repostId":"1117500727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019831510,"gmtCreate":1648570286742,"gmtModify":1676534355831,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for remaining&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for remaining&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for remaining","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019831510","repostId":"1120016829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120016829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648539903,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120016829?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-29 15:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Springs Back to Life, but Buyer Beware","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120016829","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Investors (and probably some short sellers) bid AMC stock up 45% in one day","content":"<div>\n<p>AMC Entertainment Holding (NYSE:AMC) is again making waves. In the past two weeks, AMC stock has more than doubled, including a 45% single-day jump Monday. It’s important to note that the recent rally...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/amc-stock-springs-back-to-life-but-buyer-beware/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Springs Back to Life, but Buyer Beware</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Springs Back to Life, but Buyer Beware\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-29 15:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/03/amc-stock-springs-back-to-life-but-buyer-beware/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC Entertainment Holding (NYSE:AMC) is again making waves. In the past two weeks, AMC stock has more than doubled, including a 45% single-day jump Monday. It’s important to note that the recent rally...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/amc-stock-springs-back-to-life-but-buyer-beware/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/amc-stock-springs-back-to-life-but-buyer-beware/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120016829","content_text":"AMC Entertainment Holding (NYSE:AMC) is again making waves. In the past two weeks, AMC stock has more than doubled, including a 45% single-day jump Monday. It’s important to note that the recent rally is not because of fundamental strength, but rather because Reddit investors are actively trading the stock once again.That is not to say the company hasn’t made some interesting moves recently. For instance, it invested in embattled gold and silver miner Hycroft Mining (NASDAQ:HYMC), which is also a Reddit favorite. And today’s blastoff followed a Reuters interview in which Chief Executive Adam Aron said investors should expect more “transformational” deals in the company’s future.Meanwhile, a slate of superhero blockbusters has saved the day for AMC. However, barring a few tentpole releases, there is not much to see regarding box office numbers, and the company’s core business interests remain under pressure.Reddit Gives Thumbs Up to Hycroft Mining PurchaseReddit seems to approve of AMC’s foray into the precious metals market. For many analysts, though, the investment in struggling Hycroft Mining is a headscratcher. Management seems to believe they have become experts at navigating troubled waters and coming out on the other side leaner and stronger. However, their credentials are dubious.Yes, the company is in a much better position than it was just a couple of years ago. However, this has little to do with fundamental strength. Instead, you can thank AMC’s fans on Reddit for helping it stave off bankruptcy. The same fans believe that AMC’s investment in a mining company makes sound financial sense since gold is a tried-and-tested store of value.Interestingly, after the great escape, the company has launched several initiatives, the most fascinating of which have to be allowing cryptocurrency purchases and offering NFTs. However, its core business continues to struggle. As entertainment companies engage in streaming wars and fight for attention, there will be little to motivate the casual viewer to check out the latest releases in theaters outside perhaps the odd summer blockbuster.Selling branded popcorn could become a great revenue stream. However, it cannot take the place of the movie theater business for AMC.AMC Needs to Revamp Its BusinessThe story of Nokia (NYSE:NOK) is a cautionary tale told in business classes worldwide. The company was the biggest cell phone manufacturer globally before being overtaken by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Nokia’s downfall came from its inability to keep up with competitors like Apple, which were making better products. Nokia also made the mistake of only focusing on one type of phone instead of differentiating its product lineup.However, there should be another chapter in the works because Nokia is now a growing 5G enterprise with healthy financials.AMC will need to similarly change its operations by offering a more immersive experience. This will require a lot of experimentation, but eventually could be successful.Blockbuster releases likeSpider-Man: No Way Homeare becoming rare in the post-pandemic era, and AMC needs to account for this.Launching a digital coin and investing in virtual reality could be catalysts for future growth. Imagine watching a great art movie with friends in an amazing AMC theater from the comfort of your home in the metaverse. AMC might struggle to get people into a movie theatre for a movie like The Last Duel, but in a VR setting, perhaps consumers will be willing to give it a try.AMC Stock Is Still Too VolatileToday’s action in AMC stock likely had more than a little to do with short-sellers covering, as the percentage of shares held short is around 20% of the float. Traders certainly can’t rule out another short squeeze in the stock’s future, but they also can’t rule out a sharp sell-off.Reddit adds another dimension of volatility to stocks like AMC. Because retail investors own a majority of the shares, sentiment on Reddit will continue to be more important than sentiment on Wall Street. Therefore, normal market moves are not the norm in AMC stock.With uncertainty so high, unless you are risk-tolerant, there are few incentives to invest in AMC stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044924018,"gmtCreate":1656692704634,"gmtModify":1676535878685,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recover to what level ?&nbsp;","listText":"Recover to what level ?&nbsp;","text":"Recover to what level ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044924018","repostId":"1188024956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188024956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656641744,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188024956?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-01 10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188024956","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analy","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 49% this Year, Will Palantir Stock Recover?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-01 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/down-49-this-year-will-palantir-stock-recover/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188024956","content_text":"Story HighlightsPalantir stock has plunged significantly amid macro challenges. Do Wall Street analysts expect the stock to rebound?Stocks with sky-high valuations have plummeted this year as investors are seeking safer investments amid persistent macro uncertainty. Shares of Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) have shed 49% of their value year-to-date. While the firm’s long-term prospects look promising, Wall Street analysts are mixed in their sentiment on the stock.Palantir helps government and commercial organizations to effectively integrate their data, decisions, and operations at scale.The data analytics firm’s first-quarter earnings miss and weak second-quarter guidance also dragged down its stock last month.Financial SnapshotPalantir’s Q1’22 revenue increased 31% to $446 million, but adjusted EPS declined 50% to $0.02. Revenue surpassed analysts’ expectations while adjusted EPS fell short of estimates. Also, the company’s Q2’22 outlook of $470 million (base case) lagged Wall Street’s estimates.Investors also noted a slowdown in Palantir’s Government revenue, which grew 16% to nearly $242 million in Q1’22, compared to the 26% growth rate in Q4’21.Often criticized for its over-dependence on government contracts, Palantir started focusing on expanding its presence in the commercial markets over the recent times. In Q1’22, overall Commercial revenue grew 54% to about $205 million, with U.S Commercial revenue surging 136%.Looking ahead, Palantir is optimistic about delivering annual revenue growth of 30% or more through 2025. The company feels that there is a “wide range of potential upside” to deliver revenue above its Q2 outlook, including demand triggered by the ongoing geopolitical events.Wall Street’s TakeRecently, Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges initiated coverage of Palantir with a Hold rating and a price target of $10. Borges feels that Palantir is uniquely positioned in an ecosystem of data analytics vendors and she is positive on the company’s longer-term opportunity to succeed in the enterprise.That said, Borges assigned a Hold rating on the stock citing limited visibility into the cadence of the business in any given quarter, especially in a weaker macro backdrop.Meanwhile, last week, Bank of America Securities analyst Mariana Perez Mora initiated coverage of Palantir with a Buy rating and a price target of $13. Perez views the company as a beneficiary of “rapidly growing demand” for artificial intelligence platforms in both commercial and government end markets.Perez further adds that Palantir’s “dominant” position in the AI-powered software market should drive over 30% annual revenue growth and improving profits.Overall, the Street is sidelined on the stock with a Hold rating based on three Buys, six Holds, and three Sells. The average Palantir price target of $11.32 implies 22.64% upside potential from current levels.ConclusionPalantir’s first-quarter results failed to impress investors and Wall Street analysts. Concerns about the slowdown in Government revenue growth and the company’s ability to meet its growth targets amid challenging times are keeping the majority of Wall Street analysts covering Palantir stock on the sidelines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570479349727470","authorId":"3570479349727470","name":"ALIBINHASSAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a7c31b79e7bff28841c5f18dca737f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570479349727470","authorIdStr":"3570479349727470"},"content":"$13 within 3 months.","text":"$13 within 3 months.","html":"$13 within 3 months."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019836061,"gmtCreate":1648570732408,"gmtModify":1676534355829,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019836061","repostId":"2223813066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010937499,"gmtCreate":1648225126063,"gmtModify":1676534319594,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ATH","listText":"ATH","text":"ATH","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010937499","repostId":"2222088078","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2222088078","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1648220602,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2222088078?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-25 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Top Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Long Haul","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2222088078","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Investing in these Berkshire Hathaway-backed winners could benefit your portfolio too.","content":"<div>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has said that his company's \"favorite holding period is forever.\" The famously successful moneyman's ability to identify businesses worth holding for the long ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/25/3-top-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-the-long/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Top Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Long Haul</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Top Buffett Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Long Haul\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-25 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/25/3-top-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-the-long/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has said that his company's \"favorite holding period is forever.\" The famously successful moneyman's ability to identify businesses worth holding for the long ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/25/3-top-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-the-long/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4176":"多领域控股","AAPL":"苹果","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","BK4576":"AR","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","AMZN":"亚马逊","ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/25/3-top-buffett-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-the-long/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2222088078","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has said that his company's \"favorite holding period is forever.\" The famously successful moneyman's ability to identify businesses worth holding for the long haul has helped his company benefit from winners that kept on winning, translating into portfolio performance that has absolutely crushed the broader market.With Buffett's incredible success in mind, taking some inspiration from the Oracle of Omaha could help take your portfolio to the next level. Here's a look at three stocks in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio that are worth buying and holding for the long term.1. AppleApple ( AAPL 0.18% ) has built one of the most valuable brands in the consumer electronics and software services spaces. The company is the far-and-away leader in the mobile hardware market, far exceeding the competition in terms of profitability in the category thanks to its top-tier pricing power and incredibly loyal customer base.This brand strength and customer loyalty have also allowed it to become an early leader in emerging product categories and create a powerful, encompassing product ecosystem. The Oracle of Omaha has been absolutely effusive about his love for Apple, going so far as to describe it as \"the best business\" he knows and as one of the four pillars of Berkshire Hathaway.The investment conglomerate's position in Apple is now worth roughly $157.5 billion. The tech company accounts for roughly 47% of Berkshire's stock portfolio, representing an absolutely massive vote of confidence from one of history's most successful investors. And with strong positions in mobile and computer hardware, software services, and untapped potential in unfolding categories such as augmented reality and smart cars, Apple looks poised to continue serving up more big wins.2. Bank of AmericaThe Federal Reserve recently announced a quarter-point interest rate increase and forecast six more rate hikes this year. The measures are being conducted with the intention of fighting high levels of inflation currently hitting the U.S. However, the downside to interest rate hikes is that they will create their own pressures on the economy by making it more expensive to borrow money to fund growth initiatives.Banks are one of the few businesses that are positioned to directly benefit from rising interest rates, and Bank of America ( BAC 1.47% ) stands out as Buffett's favorite in the industry by far.With roughly $45 billion of its stock holdings in its portfolio, Bank of America stands as Berkshire Hathaway's second-largest stock position. The business is in far better shape than it was when the pressures of the 2008-09 financial crisis brought it to the brink, and it looks positioned to benefit from the rising interest rate environment.Bank of America also pays a substantial dividend, with its current yield sitting at roughly 2%. What's more, the company has been raising its payout at a rate that significantly exceeds the currently elevated rate of inflation. The company's last dividend hike represented a 17% increase, and favorable business trends could put the banking giant in a good position to deliver another substantial payout raise this year.3. AmazonEven more so than usual, Amazon ( AMZN 0.76% ) has been in the news lately. The tech giant is on track to carry out a 20-for-1 stock split in June, and the announcement has helped spur an uptick in bullish sentiment. The e-commerce and cloud computing giant has posted massive gains since its last stock split in 1999, and making its share price lower through a split would make buying the stock more accessible for many investors and open the door for inclusion in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index.While the stock split won't do anything to alter the company's fundamental performance, it's worth noting that other growth stocks have seen stock gains correlate with split announcements and completions. Alphabet recently announced its own 20-for-1 stock split that corresponded with a surge in bullish momentum, and companies including Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple have also posted big valuation gains in windows of time shortly preceding and following splits.However, while the potential for a near-term, split-related catalyst for gains may be appealing, it's Amazon's dominant positions in online retail and cloud infrastructure, as well as its fantastic penchant for innovation, that really stand out as reasons to own the stock for the long haul. In addition to its fast-growing digital ads business, the tech giant also has forefront positions in potentially revolutionary trends including artificial intelligence and robotics, and it looks poised to continue delivering wins for long-term shareholders.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9,"ORCL":0.81,"AMZN":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"GOOG":0.61}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087864339,"gmtCreate":1650987185636,"gmtModify":1676534828637,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🥺","listText":"🥺","text":"🥺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087864339","repostId":"1101176358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101176358","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650985986,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101176358?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-26 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SOFI Stock Could Fall 36.5% to 80% of Book Value During a Recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101176358","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"SOFI stock could fall to 80% of book value if the Fed dramatically raises rates this yearSource: Mic","content":"<div>\n<p>SOFI stock could fall to 80% of book value if the Fed dramatically raises rates this yearSource: Michael Vi / ShutterstockSoFi Technologies, Inc.(NASDAQ:SOFI) is very ebullient about its 2022 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/04/sofi-stock-could-fall-over-36-percent-to-80-percent-of-book-value-during-a-recession/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SOFI Stock Could Fall 36.5% to 80% of Book Value During a Recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSOFI Stock Could Fall 36.5% to 80% of Book Value During a Recession\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-26 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/04/sofi-stock-could-fall-over-36-percent-to-80-percent-of-book-value-during-a-recession/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SOFI stock could fall to 80% of book value if the Fed dramatically raises rates this yearSource: Michael Vi / ShutterstockSoFi Technologies, Inc.(NASDAQ:SOFI) is very ebullient about its 2022 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/04/sofi-stock-could-fall-over-36-percent-to-80-percent-of-book-value-during-a-recession/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/04/sofi-stock-could-fall-over-36-percent-to-80-percent-of-book-value-during-a-recession/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101176358","content_text":"SOFI stock could fall to 80% of book value if the Fed dramatically raises rates this yearSource: Michael Vi / ShutterstockSoFi Technologies, Inc.(NASDAQ:SOFI) is very ebullient about its 2022 expectations. Last quarter, its slide deck forecasted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will rise from $30 million in 2021 to $180 million in 2022. The only problem is the Federal Reserve (Fed) is now raising rates. That could put a damper on its outlook when it reports its first quarter (Q1) lending results on May 10. As a result, SOFI stock could become vulnerable.However, it is not as if this danger to SoFi’s lending and earnings outlook is not already reflected in SOFI stock. For example, it is near its lows for the year at $6.55 per share on Apr. 25, down 58.6% for the year. That shows that investors are not very enthusiastic about the stock’s prospects going forward.But have things been overdone on the downside for SOFI stock? For example, based on Yahoo! Finance statistics, it trades for just 1.33 times book value and 5.37 times sales. Based on Morningstar’s analysis, the stock traded for 14.6 times sales last year on average. So, maybe SOFI stock is cheap here.Valuing SOFI Stock Based on Price-to-Book ValueHowever, we need to focus on the specifics. First of all, the company reported that its shareholder’s equity was $4.377 billion at the end of 2021. Given that its market capitalization (cap) as of Apr. 25 is $5.238 billion, that puts it at a price-to-book (P/B) value metric at just 1.20x, not 1.33 times, as Yahoo! Finance reports. The problem here, though, is that adjusted EBITDA profits will not necessarily translate into positive net income and higher book value (i.e., shareholders’ equity) for 2022. As a result, the P/B value could actually be higher if shareholders’ equity falls in Q1 and thereafter. That could lead to a lower price for the stock.Here is one scenario that could play out: If the Fed’s higher interest rates reduce the volume of loans and profits at Sofi, that could lead to lower adjusted EBITDA and potentially a lower book value. Let’s say it falls 5% to $4.158 billion. Next, let’s say that the market decides to price financial asset companies like SOFI at below book value. This could occur if they assume that lending profits and losses could lead to book value dropping even lower. This often occurs during recessions.Therefore, at 80% of book value, the market cap for SOFI stock would drop to $3.326 billion. That represents a decline of 36.5% from the market cap of $5.238 billion. This implies that SOFI stock could still fall over one-third to $4.16 per share (i.e., 65.5% x $6.55 per share price). So, let the buyer beware with SOFI stock. Most investors should wait until the company updates its financial outlook on May 10.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOFI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013046644,"gmtCreate":1648659911162,"gmtModify":1676534373478,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013046644","repostId":"2223092538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2223092538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1648644301,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2223092538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 20:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Growth Stocks With Monster Upside of Up to 331%, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2223092538","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Select analysts believe these fast-paced stocks can soar over the next 12 months.","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSIf these high-water price targets are hit, investors would enjoy upside ranging from 179% to 331%.Analysts' lofty price targets often fail to capture the challenges high-growth companies are...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/30/3-growth-stocks-monster-upside-to-331-wall-street/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Growth Stocks With Monster Upside of Up to 331%, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Growth Stocks With Monster Upside of Up to 331%, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-30 20:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/30/3-growth-stocks-monster-upside-to-331-wall-street/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSIf these high-water price targets are hit, investors would enjoy upside ranging from 179% to 331%.Analysts' lofty price targets often fail to capture the challenges high-growth companies are...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/30/3-growth-stocks-monster-upside-to-331-wall-street/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen","PLUG":"普拉格能源","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/30/3-growth-stocks-monster-upside-to-331-wall-street/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2223092538","content_text":"KEY POINTSIf these high-water price targets are hit, investors would enjoy upside ranging from 179% to 331%.Analysts' lofty price targets often fail to capture the challenges high-growth companies are facing.Over the long run, the stock market has proved to be a wealth-building machine. Even though corrections are commonplace, investors are typically doubling their money about once a decade.But for a select group of high-growth stocks, simply doubling your money in a decade won't suffice. According to the high-water 12-month price targets from a group of Wall Street analysts, the following three supercharged growth stocks offer monster upside ranging from 179% on the low end to as much as 331%.Image source: Getty Images.Rivian Automotive: Implied upside of 218%The first fast-paced company with significant upside potential is the hottest initial public offering (IPO) of 2021, electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Rivian Automotive. Analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley boasts the highest price target on Wall Street for Rivian. If Jonas's $147 price target were to hit, it would represent an increase of 218% from where shares ended this past week.Jonas's lofty projection is based on the expectation that Rivian will be producing 1.5 million battery EVs (BEVs) annually by 2030, and will be able to grow its software business from an estimated $641 million in 2025 to approximately $36 billion by 2040 as the installed base of Rivian BEVs grows.Pardon the pun, but the bullishness surrounding Rivian does have some fuel behind it. In 2019, the company secured an order for 100,000 electric vans from e-commerce giant Amazon. Even before becoming a publicly traded company, this order provided some level of validation that Rivian was poised to become a major EV player. Also, keep in mind that Rivian's R1T electric truck looks to be in a class of its own with regard to luxury EV trucks.Additionally, Rivian is sitting on a mountain of capital following its IPO. The company ended 2021 with $18.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents, which is allowing management to aggressively invest in production expansion efforts.  For instance, $5 billion is being spent to build a manufacturing plant in Georgia that'll produce up to 400,000 EVs annually once it begins production in 2024.But betting on Rivian to become a $130 billion company seems like a stretch when supply chain issues have cut expected EV production to 25,000 in 2022 from an estimated 50,000.What's more, rising material costs have put Rivian between a rock and a hard place. Earlier this month, the company announced significant price hikes on its quad-motor models, only to walk back to those hikes on people who'd placed reservations with the company prior to March 1. As EV companies like Nikola and Lordstown Motors have shown, overcoming PR flubs can be very difficult. Suffice it to say, $147 doesn't look achievable anytime soon.Image source: Getty Images.Ocugen: Implied upside of 331%A second high-growth stock with monster upside potential, at least in the eyes of one Wall Street analyst, is small-cap biotech company Ocugen( OCGN 6.87% ). According to Robert LeBoyer of Noble Financial, Ocugen can hit $15 a share, which would represent jaw-dropping upside of 331% from where it closed this past week.In LeBoyer's view, Ocugen's upside is tied to COVID-19 vaccine Covaxin, which in his view holds competitive advantages over other COVID-19 vaccines already in use in North America. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently removed a partial clinical hold on Covaxin in the U.S., which officially clears a path for Ocugen to submit a biologics licensing application on the drug it's commercially licensed from Bharat Biotech.Last year, Bharat Biotech ran a large-scale study involving Covaxin on 25,800 people in India. That trial produced a vaccine efficacy (VE) of 78%. Considering that there are billions of people worldwide still in need of initial COVID-19 inoculations and/or booster shots, we're still at a stage where new and effective vaccines are welcome on the global stage.The issue for Ocugen is that its commercial agreement with Bharat concerning Covaxin only covers the U.S. and Canada. While these are traditionally high-margin markets, the U.S. and Canada have heavily invested in COVID-19 vaccines. A large percentage of the population for both countries have already been vaccinated and/or received booster shots. Further, new vaccine options with a higher VE than Covaxin are waiting in the wings.To make matters worse, the FDA declined to grant Covaxin a pathway to emergency-use authorization (EUA) for pediatric patients aged 2 to 18. Despite the company announcing that it would continue to work with the FDA on a possible EUA path for pediatric patients, this revenue channel looks to be shut off.Long story short, Ocugen still looks to be a ways away from having any chance of getting Covaxin approved for use in the U.S. -- and even if it's approved, there's little assurance it'll be used over other vaccines with higher VEs. LeBoyer's $15 price target is highly unlikely to be hit.Image source: Getty Images.Plug Power: Implied upside of 179%The third growth stock with salivating upside is hydrogen fuel-cell solutions provider Plug Power. According to H.C. Wainwright analyst Amit Dayal, Plug Power can hit $78 a share, which would represent an increase of 179% from where shares ended this past week.Dayal's high-water price target on Plug Power is based on an expansion of the company's green hydrogen network, and the ongoing deployment of the company's hydrogen fuel-cell-powered GenDrive units. With most markets promoting clean-energy solutions, Dayal anticipates the company's margins will improve across the board.Plug Power really put itself on the map in early 2021 when it struck two major partnerships within a span of one week. In January 2021, SK Group took a 10% equity stake in the company and formed a joint venture to bring fuel-cell solutions (for vehicles and refilling stations) to numerous Asian markets. Roughly a week later, Plug and French auto company Renault forged a joint venture to tackle Europe's light commercial vehicle market. These deals signaled that Plug's fuel-cell solutions were about more than just powering forklifts in warehouses.The company has also signaled its willingness to be a key next-gen energy player with acquisitions. In December, it completed its buyout of green hydrogen solutions company Frames Group, which furthers Plug's ambitions of becoming one of world's leading green hydrogen ecosystems.While there's little question that developed countries are pushing for green-energy alternative to fight climate change, it's not yet clear if Plug Power has the solutions that'll be preferred. Even at a $28 share price, we're talking about a company with a greater than $16 billion market cap that's losing money and hasn't yet demonstrated if it can handle rapid scaling. This isn't to say that it won't be able to scale its ecosystem, so much as to point out that its valuation implies everything will go off without a hitch. Rarely is that the case with next-gen technologies and solutions.Although Plug Power is a company people can hope is successful, it has a lot of questions to answer at its current valuation, let alone one that would be 179% higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019838913,"gmtCreate":1648570488077,"gmtModify":1676534355838,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news&nbsp;","listText":"Good news&nbsp;","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019838913","repostId":"2223847445","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2223847445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648567361,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2223847445?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-29 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla, Amazon Stock Splits Trigger Retail Stampede","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2223847445","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Electric-vehicle maker jumped 8.1% on plan for new splitTesla was most-purchased stock among Fidelit","content":"<div>\n<p>Electric-vehicle maker jumped 8.1% on plan for new splitTesla was most-purchased stock among Fidelity customers MondayRecent proposals from Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Tesla Inc. tell us one ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/tesla-amazon-stock-splits-trigger-retail-stampede-tech-watch?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla, Amazon Stock Splits Trigger Retail Stampede</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla, Amazon Stock Splits Trigger Retail Stampede\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-29 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/tesla-amazon-stock-splits-trigger-retail-stampede-tech-watch?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Electric-vehicle maker jumped 8.1% on plan for new splitTesla was most-purchased stock among Fidelity customers MondayRecent proposals from Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Tesla Inc. tell us one ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/tesla-amazon-stock-splits-trigger-retail-stampede-tech-watch?srnd=markets-vp\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","MS":"摩根士丹利","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/tesla-amazon-stock-splits-trigger-retail-stampede-tech-watch?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2223847445","content_text":"Electric-vehicle maker jumped 8.1% on plan for new splitTesla was most-purchased stock among Fidelity customers MondayRecent proposals from Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Tesla Inc. tell us one thing: Stock splits can spark big rallies as retail traders pile in.Tesla surged 8% Monday, adding about $84 billion to the company’s market value, after saying it’s planning a second stock split in less than two years. Amazon jumped more than 5% the day after announcing a 20-for-1 split this month and the stock has been on a tear ever since.In theory, this shouldn’t happen. A split doesn’t affect a company’s business fundamentals, and investors averse to a stock’s high price tag can simply buy fractional shares instead. Yet splits are causing day traders to pile in, fueling rallies in these companies’ shares.“We simply cannot fundamentally explain how a stock split can add nearly 1.5 times the market cap of General Motors or one full Volkswagen’s worth of market cap to Tesla almost instantly,”Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note to clients.Tesla was by far the most-purchased stock among Fidelity customers on Monday, as well as Tuesday as of 9:47 a.m., according to data from the brokerage firm. Amazon’s announcement attracted “significant” retail interest and was likely the biggest factor in the stock’s outperformance during a week when the Nasdaq 100 fell almost 4%, according to Vanda Research.“It is just a sentiment effect,” said Gina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Retail investors perceive price differently -- and the stock is now attainable at a lower price.”There may be other reasons for a company like Tesla to consider increasing its outstanding shares.“The split can make the stock look more attractive, luring new buyers into the stock to help keep the recent momentum,” said Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally Invest Securities. “Perhaps this is Elon’s way of increasing retail ownership and reducing institutional ownership?”Employee ownership and retaining human capital are more reasons. “A lower-priced stock makes it easier for employees with equity as part of their compensation to sell a more specific amount to satisfy tax liabilities and manage their personal wealth,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research said. “Once one company does it, they all have to do it since they are competing for similar talent.”According to data from Vanda Research, net purchases of Tesla shares by retail investors spiked after Monday’s announcement and web chatter on the company also jumped.Prior to 2020, share splits had almost disappeared from U.S. stock markets, with only two completed in the S&P 500 in 2019 compared with a total of 41 in 2006 and 2007, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. But Apple Inc. and Tesla helped revive the practice after splitting their stocks in 2020, with more joining the pack this year.In 2020,Tesla Inc.’s shares surged more than 60% from the day of the announcement to the execution date, while Apple shares rose about 30% in a similar time frame. Weekly retail purchases surged to just shy of $1 billion of Apple shares in the period leading up to its actual split, from about $150 million prior to the news, according to Vanda.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.6,"MS":0.6,"GOOGL":0.6,"TSLA":1,"AMZN":1,"GM":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021028916,"gmtCreate":1652976687335,"gmtModify":1676535200394,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021028916","repostId":"1182742214","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182742214","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652969715,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182742214?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-19 22:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stocks Remained High in Morning Trading, with Palantir and AMC Rising Over 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182742214","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3adfc3bbb941396b4011a499cacbfa8\" tg-width=\"319\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stocks Remained High in Morning Trading, with Palantir and AMC Rising Over 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stocks Remained High in Morning Trading, with Palantir and AMC Rising Over 2%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-19 22:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3adfc3bbb941396b4011a499cacbfa8\" tg-width=\"319\" tg-height=\"275\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182742214","content_text":"Meme stocks remained high in morning trading, with Palantir and AMC rising over 2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060591634,"gmtCreate":1651160829876,"gmtModify":1676534861784,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get to know better&nbsp;","listText":"Get to know better&nbsp;","text":"Get to know better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060591634","repostId":"1116937204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116937204","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651126440,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116937204?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 14:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Understand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116937204","media":"追寻价值之路","summary":"不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support stock prices to a certain extent or even push stock prices up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies.<b>Core conclusions</b></p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest. After years of development, it has become a common means in the capital market. Especially in the last ten years, the scale of repurchase by listed companies in the United States has soared sharply.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the U.S. stock market, this article discusses and sorts out issues related to stock repurchases. The main contents are divided into five parts:</p><p>The first part introduces the basic concept of stock repurchase, including four common ways of repurchase and the motivation of stock repurchase; The second part discusses the related financial treatment of stock repurchase, involving whether to choose the financial treatment of canceling shares after repurchase and why some enterprises have negative net assets after repurchase; The third part sorts out the logic that stock repurchases are conducive to stock price rises. One is to directly increase the demand for company stocks, and the other is to improve financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies. In addition, judging from the performance of U.S. stocks, stock repurchases It is an important part of stock price yields, and the impact of repurchases on price-to-book ratios is more significant than P/E; The fourth part discusses the potential risks of stock repurchase, mainly including the decline of market liquidity and the high financial leverage risk of listed companies caused by repurchase; The fifth part is an introduction to the current repurchase situation of A shares and the experience of US stock repurchase on A shares. Risk warning: Repurchases increase financial leverage risks, historical experience does not represent the future, the macro economy is less than expected, and overseas markets fluctuate significantly</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. Introduction to the basic concepts of stock repurchase</b></p><p><b>1.1 What is a share repurchase?</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the behavior of listed companies using cash and other means to repurchase a certain amount of outstanding stocks of the company from the stock market, which will reduce the number of outstanding stocks of the company, thereby achieving market value management, equity incentives, and stabilizing stock prices. and other positive effects.</p><p>There are two main sources of funds for enterprises to repurchase stocks: one is internal funds, including net profits obtained from daily operations of enterprises or cash sources such as government tax cuts and tax rebates, as well as self-owned funds such as the original retained earnings of enterprises; The second is external funds, which borrow money and add leverage through bond issuance and other means to achieve share repurchase.</p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest, especially after the 1980s. Previously, because western European and American countries advocated the theory of maintaining corporate capital, and the repurchase behavior itself was suspected of market manipulation, few companies conducted stock repurchases. It was not until the 1980s that stock repurchases began to gradually develop. After more than 40 years of development, stock repurchase has become a common means in developed capital markets. It is widely used to optimize the capital structure, enhance the company's value, or send positive signals when the company's stock price is undervalued.</p><p><b>1.2 Four common ways of stock repurchase</b></p><p>According to the different methods of determining the repurchase price, stock repurchase can generally be divided into four basic methods: open market operation, cash offer repurchase, agreement repurchase and transferable sale right repurchase.</p><p>Open market repurchase is a popular stock repurchase method in the current US market. Listed companies that repurchase shares through the open market will directly repurchase shares in the open market at the current market price. Stock repurchases under this method are more flexible. Listed companies can freely decide factors such as the time and quantity of repurchases according to their own circumstances. Moreover, stock repurchases under this method do not need to pay additional premiums.</p><p>Another more common method of stock repurchase is offer repurchase. There are generally two pricing methods for listed companies to repurchase stocks through tender offers. One is to use a fixed price to issue an offer to shareholders within an agreed period to purchase a certain number of stocks. Listed companies generally choose this pricing method when they need a large number of company stocks in a short period of time. However, a sharp increase in demand in the short term will lead to paying a certain premium for repurchasing stocks. Another pricing method under tender offer repurchase is Dutch auction repurchase, which will give the company greater flexibility in the repurchase price, so it is also widely used. In Dutch auction repurchase, the listed company sets the range of repurchase price and the quantity planned to repurchase, and then shareholders express the number of shares they are willing to sell at a certain level within the price range. Finally, the listed company will summarize the wishes of all shareholders and repurchase shares according to the low to high price order until the established repurchase quantity of the listed company is reached.</p><p>Agreement buybacks are less transparent compared to open market buybacks and offer buybacks. Because under the agreement repurchase method, listed companies directly enter into private agreements with some shareholders to repurchase shares according to the price and quantity agreed in the agreement. This method is relatively free in terms of pricing, transaction time and payment method, and usually the negotiated price is lower than the market price.</p><p>Transferable right of sale repurchase is a special way of stock repurchase. The company that implements stock repurchase gives shareholders the right to sell their stocks to the company at a specific price within a certain period of time. Once this right is formed, it can be separated and traded with the attached stocks. Listed companies issue transferable authorizations to their shareholders, and shareholders who are unwilling to sell their shares can sell this right separately to meet the different demands of various shareholders.</p><p><b>1.3 Why Stock Repurchase?</b></p><p>The benefits of share repurchases are multifaceted. From the perspective of the company as a whole, whether it is internal or external funds to repurchase shares, it can improve the capital structure of the enterprise and reduce the cost of supervision and restraint on the company's management. The way of issuing bonds to repurchase shares can also make use of the tax shield effect of debts to achieve reasonable tax avoidance, and urge the management to focus on the debt repayment and long-term sustainable operation of the enterprise. For those shareholders who sell their stocks in the stock repurchase plan, they can sell their stocks to obtain liquidity. In addition, compared with the direct distribution of cash Dividend, since capital gains are generally not taxed or the tax rate is lower, effective tax avoidance can be achieved by distributing dividends through stock repurchase. Shareholders who still hold shares after the company implements the repurchase plan can also benefit. As the net capital of the enterprise will be significantly reduced after the completion of the stock repurchase, under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, the financial indicators such as the return on net assets, earnings per share, and net assets per share of the enterprise will all be significantly improved. If we classify the motivations of listed companies' stock repurchases, we can also classify them into the following four categories: one is financial motivation, the other is signal transmission appeal, the third is to reduce principal-agent risks, and the fourth is to increase company control to prevent hostile takeovers.</p><p><b>The financial motivation of listed companies to buy back shares is mainly related to their capital structure and dividend policy. Listed companies often buy back shares for financial reasons such as increasing earnings per share, improving capital structure and increasing shareholder wealth effect.</b>Specifically, the improvement of stock repurchase on the financial-related factors of listed companies is mainly reflected in four aspects:</p><p><b>First, improve the company's earnings per share.</b>Since buybacks will reduce the number of outstanding shares of listed companies, the decrease in the denominator when calculating earnings per share will directly lead to an increase in EPS, which may also increase the company's stock price.</p><p><b>Second, realize dividend tax avoidance and increase the shareholder wealth of listed companies.</b>Since the tax rate of cash dividends is higher than the tax rate of capital gains, cash return to shareholders by share repurchase instead of dividends can help shareholders achieve reasonable tax avoidance. In the PRC, the Dividend dividend income of individual investors whose shareholding period is less than one month is fully included in the taxable income, and the actual tax burden is 20%, but capital gains are temporarily exempted from income tax.</p><p><b>Thirdly, optimize the capital structure of the company and improve the value of the company through the tax shield effect.</b>No matter how the stock repurchase is carried out, it will reduce the company's owner's equity, and bond repurchase will even increase the company's debt, thus increasing the company's financial leverage ratio and producing a leverage effect. Therefore, for companies with low financial leverage, this can not only optimize the company's capital structure, but also make use of the tax shield effect brought by financing interest to improve the company's value.</p><p><b>Fourth, stock repurchases have high financial flexibility.</b>There are generally two ways for listed companies to return cash to shareholders: cash dividends and stock repurchases. However, the way of paying cash dividends usually makes shareholders expect future dividends, which requires the company to have stable cash flow. However, stock repurchase occurs occasionally. Listed companies can choose the amount, quantity, time, etc. of repurchase relatively freely under the stock repurchase method, which has great financial flexibility compared with the stock repurchase method.</p><p><b>The signal transmission appeal of stock repurchase is mainly based on the assumption of information asymmetry. Listed companies can transmit the signal to the market that the company's stock price is undervalued through stock repurchase, because the company will only carry out stock repurchase when it thinks that its stock price is undervalued. Sending a positive signal to the market in this way has a positive impact on the company's short-term operating income.</b></p><p><b>Share buybacks also help reduce principal-agent risk.</b>Because the management right and ownership of listed companies are separated, and the goals of agent and principal are not completely consistent, it may be that the principal can't clearly understand the goal bias of agent, thus causing the interests of principal to be damaged. Especially when the company's free cash flow is relatively abundant, the company's management may make over-investment or consumption for its own interests, thus encroaching on the interests of the company's shareholders. In this case, the company returns cash to shareholders through stock repurchase, which not only improves the efficiency of cash flow use, but also reduces agency costs and principal-agent risks.</p><p><b>Increasing control right through stock repurchase, preventing equity dilution and hostile takeover are also one of the motives of stock repurchase of listed companies.</b>In the 1980s, with the rise of leveraged mergers and acquisitions in the United States, hostile takeover activities gradually increased. In order to prevent companies from being hostile takeover, listed companies have repurchased shares to increase stock prices, reduce outstanding shares and resist hostile takeover. While there are fewer hostile takeovers now, using the repurchased shares for management's equity incentive program also helps avoid dilution.</p><p><b>2. Financial treatment of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>2.1 The difference between stock cancellation or not after share repurchase</b></p><p>For listed companies, after the stock repurchase is completed, the company can cancel the repurchased shares or keep the repurchased shares as \"treasury shares\".</p><p>The \"treasury shares\" retained by the company still belong to the issued shares, which are held by the company itself, and can be sold to the market at an appropriate time, issued convertible bonds or used as incentives for employees. However, the characteristics of \"treasury shares\" are similar to unissued stocks. \"Treasury shares\" have no voting rights, nor the right to pay dividends, and cannot be realized even after the company goes bankrupt. Therefore, \"treasury shares\" do not participate in the calculation of indicators such as earnings per share, return on net assets and net assets per share.</p><p><b>Therefore, after the stock repurchase is completed, whether the repurchased stocks are cancelled or not, it will not affect financial indicators such as earnings per share, net assets per share and return on net assets, because even if they are retained as \"treasury stocks\", these stocks will not participate in the calculation of these indicators.</b>From this perspective, there will be no big difference between cancelling and not canceling the repurchased shares for companies.</p><p><b>However, in most cases, enterprises will choose to keep the repurchased stocks as \"treasury stocks\" after the stock repurchase is completed.</b>We have counted the handling of stock repurchases of the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. Among them, 30 listed companies have chosen to repurchase stocks and retained \"treasury shares\", and the other 20 listed companies have chosen to cancel the repurchased stocks or have not carried out stock repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485e1f54b04ed2c89a5d83b631a23a53\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The reason why enterprises tend to keep \"treasury stocks\" is mainly because \"treasury stocks\" themselves can bring certain positive significance to enterprises.</b></p><p>First, it can provide the company with sufficient flexibility in terms of financing and reduce financing costs. Since \"treasury shares\" are still issued shares, the company can sell \"treasury shares\" when there is a financing need; Compared with allotment of shares or issuance of new shares, the cost of obtaining funds by selling \"treasury shares\" is lower, which can not only save the supervision and intermediary costs related to issuing shares, but also avoid selling at a discount when the market permits.</p><p>Second, it is conducive to the implementation of incentive plans for employees or management. \"Treasury shares\" are one of the important stock sources for companies to issue equity incentives to employees and management. Therefore, for U.S. listed companies, retaining \"treasury shares\" can facilitate the implementation of equity incentive plans, etc., and avoid the lack of sufficient shares. The source of shares makes the incentive plan unable to be implemented.</p><p>The third is to facilitate the company's mergers and acquisitions and prevent the company from suffering hostile takeover. Merger and acquisition through treasury share exchange can provide certain flexibility for the company's merger and acquisition behavior; In addition, the behavior of retaining \"treasury shares\" after the repurchase can also prevent the company from being hostile takeovers. On the one hand, the repurchase pushes up the stock price, which makes it more difficult for the acquirer. On the other hand, \"treasury shares\" can supplement the number of shares in circulation of the company. Provide buffer time for the company to deal with hostile takeovers.</p><p>Fourth, it is conducive to the stability of stock prices. When there is irrational fluctuation in the market, enterprises can stabilize the price fluctuation by adjusting the supply of outstanding stocks, stabilize the stock price, and avoid the company being greatly affected by irrational factors such as market sentiment.</p><p><b>2.2 How does repurchase lead to negative net assets of enterprises?</b></p><p>Among the benefits that stock repurchases can bring, a very important one is that stock repurchases can increase EPS and the company's overall ROE. This is mainly because stock repurchases will reduce the company's net capital, and a significant decline in the denominator will bring Significant improvements including EPS and ROE. In even more exaggerated circumstances, some U.S.-listed companies have repurchased a large number of issued shares in the form of bond repurchases, resulting in a situation where total liabilities are greater than total assets and negative net assets. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid.</p><p>So how do these listed companies in the United States make their net assets negative through buybacks?<b>The main reason behind this is that there is a huge difference between the book value of equity assets in the financial statements and the market value of stocks in the secondary market. The stock price in the secondary market will not be reflected in the balance sheet, so the book value of stocks and the market value are not equal. When enterprises repurchase, they mainly refer to the market value of stocks, so the cost of repurchasing stocks often has a premium relative to the book value. Therefore, whether it is transferred to treasury stocks after repurchase, used as a deduction item when calculating shareholders' equity, or retained earnings account is offset when cancelled after repurchase, as long as the premium on the cost of repurchased stocks is too large, it may lead to The retained earnings account turned negative, and even caused the company's overall net assets to show a negative value.</b></p><p>Take Starbucks Corporation, for example. In the annual report for fiscal year 2019 (from September 30, 2018 to September 30, 2019) released by Starbucks, the company's total assets dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018 to US $19.22 billion, but its total liabilities dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018. US $22.98 billion rose to US $25.45 billion, which means that Starbucks' net assets, that is, owner's equity, dropped from US $1.18 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-US $6.23 billion in fiscal year 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0772be7e56e10608ecbc5ec6b38ac32\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judging from the shareholder equity breakdown account in Starbucks' balance sheet, the main reason why the company's net assets were less than 0 in 2019 is that the retained earnings account has dropped significantly.</b>In fiscal year 2018, Starbucks' retained earnings still had a balance of nearly US $1.5 billion, but by the end of fiscal year 2019, retained earnings dropped sharply to-US $5.77 billion, which directly led to Starbucks' shareholders' equity turning negative significantly. Since then, the company's retained earnings account has been Maintain a negative state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec889287bc85df1b916c06e198a16507\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The main reason for the negative retained earnings is stock repurchases.</b>Take the first negative retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 as an example. During fiscal year 2019, Starbucks conducted a large number of stock repurchases, and the number of issued share capital dropped from 1.31 billion shares in fiscal year 2018 to 1.18 billion shares. The total share capital decreased by US $100,000, the capital reserve decreased by US $610 million, and the premium part of corporate stock repurchases offset retained earnings by as much as US $9.52 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of changes in owner's equity, the increase or decrease of Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 was mainly affected by changes in accounting policies, net profit, stock repurchases and cash dividends. If the impact of stock repurchases is not taken into account, changes in accounting policies and net profits will increase retained earnings by US $496 million and US $3.599 billion respectively. Even with a cash dividend of US $1.8 billion, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 will still be higher than that at the beginning of the period. increase. However, under the influence of stock repurchases, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 not only did not increase, but decreased significantly, and even experienced a large negative value, ultimately making net assets less than 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c366d6c37385579e78b67920cd8cf623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the financial treatment of shares repurchased and transferred to treasury shares, we can refer to the case of McDonald's Corporation. As early as fiscal year 2016, McDonald's net assets were already less than 0; Since then, McDonald's has continued to issue bonds to repurchase tradable shares and transfer them to treasury stock, resulting in a continuous decline in the company's net assets. As of the end of fiscal year 2019 (December 31, 2019), McDonald's total assets rose from US $32.8 billion at the end of the previous period to US $47.5 billion, while total liabilities also rose significantly from US $39.1 billion to US $55.7 billion. Therefore, McDonald's Shareholder equity dropped from-US $6.3 billion at the end of 2018 to-US $8.2 billion, a record low. Although the company's shareholders' equity has rebounded in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, it still remains negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d65757489198ea8fd29d1769560c54\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of the breakdown of shareholders' equity, the continued decline of McDonald's shareholders' equity in 2019 was mainly due to the continued rise in the cost of treasury shares.</b>The values of capital reserve, retained earnings and other comprehensive income accounts that affect shareholders' equity in fiscal year 2019 all increased compared with fiscal year 2018, while the equity account remained unchanged. Only the allowance item for treasury shares dropped from-61.5 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-66.3 billion US dollars (which means that the cost of purchasing treasury shares increased from 61.5 billion US dollars to 66.3 billion US dollars), and resulted in a significant decline in shareholders' equity. Although the cost of treasury shares continues to rise in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, due to the significant increase in capital reserves and retained earnings accounts, shareholders' equity as a whole has rebounded slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a6095fde99dbb62d4aed332b2ec0f00\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the statement of changes in owner's equity, in fiscal year 2019, McDonald's continued to repurchase 25 million shares, and the total repurchase cost reached US $4.98 billion; At the same time, 4.2 million treasury shares were used to complete the stock exercise subscription plan, and the amount of treasury shares transferred out was US $180 million. Therefore, as of the end of fiscal year 2019, McDonald's repurchased a total of 914 million treasury shares, and the cumulative total cost of repurchasing treasury shares rose from US $61.5 billion to US $66.3 billion, resulting in a continued decline in shareholder equity to-US $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1653e1d47f48f71ec3b559f0778ebed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Stock repurchases are conducive to driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>3.1 The main logic of buybacks driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>There are two main mechanisms for repurchases to promote the rise of stock prices. First, listed companies can directly increase the demand for the company's stocks to increase the stock price by repurchasing stocks, which is also the most direct channel for stock repurchases to have an impact.</b></p><p><b>In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, listed companies themselves have been a very important participant in the US stock market.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, between 2009 and 2021, among the major players in the equity market, ETF funds have accumulated a net purchase of US $2.77 trillion in stocks, and U.S. households and non-profit institutions have accumulated a net purchase of US $1.17 trillion. Mutual funds and other financial institutions have accumulated net sales of US $90.1 billion and US $2.27 trillion in equity assets respectively. The amount traded by non-financial companies to buy back shares has soared sharply in the past decade, with the cumulative amount of transactions in this part alone reaching nearly $5 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b3c3aacf75c2cbd431cf148c3a3c19\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120a876d16c099ebeb3de8eeb78c05d\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can assume that Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares and simulate its stock price performance before and after implementing the share repurchase to study the impact of the repurchase. According to the financial valuation model, the company's market value depends on indicators such as future cash flow or net profit, so the behavior of stock repurchase will not affect the company's total market value. We assume that before the repurchase, Company A had 20 billion outstanding shares, each worth 10 yuan, and the total market value was 200 billion yuan; This time, Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares. After the repurchase, there are still 16 billion shares in circulation. Since the total market value remains unchanged at 200 billion yuan, the price of each share will rise to 12.5 yuan, which is the same as the repurchase. Compared with before, the stock price rose by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8de2f35668d54b51facdda584daeebe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The second mechanism by which buybacks drive stock prices higher is by improving financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies.</b></p><p>Since Company A's repurchase behavior will not lead to changes in the company's net profit, the net profit before and after the repurchase is 50 billion yuan, so after the repurchase, Company A's EPS will rise from 2.5 yuan to 3.125 yuan, an increase of 25%.</p><p>The same is true for the stock market as a whole. Historical data shows that the trend of S&P 500 EPS is highly consistent with the trend of S&P 500 repurchase scale. From the trend point of view, the trend of S&P 500 Index EPS and repurchase scale has roughly gone through three stages since 2000. From 2000 to 2007, the index EPS increased slowly, and the scale of company repurchases also continued to increase. Index repurchases The amount of reduced share capital continues to rise. During the financial crisis in 2008, EPS fell sharply, and corporate buybacks also fell off a cliff. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, the EPS and repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index have been on the rise again since 2010. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the two experienced a short decline simultaneously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3dc2083f3850c07834b3b5601694d4\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As an important financial indicator in the investment research system, ROE will also increase significantly after the company repurchases stocks. Take Apple as an example. Before 2012, there was basically no stock repurchase of its listed companies. 2013 was a turning point, and then the amount of repurchases began to soar sharply. If we look at the growth rate of net profit alone, Apple's fiscal year 2012 was US $41.7 billion and fiscal year 2021 was US $94.7 billion. The annualized compound growth rate of net profit is only 9.5%. When this growth rate is put in the A-share market, it is not a high-tech company at all, but more like a public utility company. But through a large number of share buybacks, Apple's ROE has increased from about 30% in 2013 to 150% in 2021. By fiscal year 2021, Apple's repurchases of common shares will be as high as US $86 billion, which can almost offset the net profit of that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2085bad141a0aa1528e6132dcceafae8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stock repurchases will not only increase the ROE of listed companies, but even make the company's ROE turn negative in more exaggerated cases. In the A-share market, we often see companies with negative ROE. In this case, listed companies are losing money, so the net profit (numerator) is negative. In the U.S. stock market, many companies have made their net assets (denominator) negative because of too many repurchases. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid. The following table reports the changes in McDonald's stock repurchases and ROE from fiscal years 2007 to 2021. It can be seen that before 2014, the company's ROE was roughly 35%. Then a large number of repurchases began. In 2015, the ROE reached 63%. After 2016, the company's share capital was negative, making the ROE negative.</p><p>Negative net assets mean that the company is insolvent in traditional textbooks, which is a signal that it is on the verge of bankruptcy. However, in the current US stock market, the stock prices of many such companies continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b35b389852b97d68f11e2f01e54e78b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Stock repurchases will push up stock price yields</b></p><p><b>Stock returns come from Dividend dividends and changes in market value, and changes in market value are affected by profits and valuations. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term investment, stock returns can be decomposed into three parts: dividend repurchase income, stock valuation and corporate profits. Among them, dividend repurchase income occupies a very important position in the total stock return. In the American stock market, dividend repurchase income can even be said to be the main source of income for stock assets. Therefore, stock repurchases will have a significant impact on stock price returns, and we can see that the gap between the total return index and the ordinary index will increase with the repurchase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbb8fd064eb67ec1fa8705dca4d95dc\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the investment period of more than 30 years since the beginning of 1989, even after two major crises, the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008, investing in U.S. stocks will still bring very rich returns, among which dividend income occupies a very important position, which is reflected in the gap between the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Total Return Index has been adjusted on the basis of the S&P 500 Index, and the dividends of sample stocks are included in the index income. The cumulative increase of the adjusted S&P 500 Total Return Index is nearly 30 times, while the increase of the S&P 500 Index is only 14.2 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3438f479b888125f194b418925a29206\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Philip U. Straehl et al. (The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal) An in-depth study was conducted on the long-term yield of the U.S. stock market from 1871 to 2014. The study found that, including the Dividend distributed by the company and the income generated by stock repurchases, dividend repurchase income can explain the historical yield of U.S. stocks. vast majority,<b>Especially after the rapid development of stock repurchases in 1970, the impact of repurchases on improving stock price returns was more significant.</b>From 1871 to 2014, the real yield of U.S. stocks (after excluding inflation) was about 7%, of which Dividend's yield was 4.5%. If the income from company repurchases is considered, the total dividend repurchase yield will rise to 4.89%, accounting for more than two-thirds of the real yield of U.S. stocks. The above conclusion is still valid after adjusting the research range of U.S. stocks. From 1901 to 2014, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.58%, of which the part from Dividend's income reached 4.29%. Including the corporate repurchase part, the total dividend repurchase The rate of return reached 4.78%; From 1970 to 2014, the Dividend income generated by U.S. stocks was 3.03%. After taking corporate buybacks into account, this part of the income rose to 4.26%. During the same period, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad0938835357fb43662b8316e408bdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 After the repurchase, the stock price-to-book ratio will change significantly compared with the P/E</b></p><p>While share buybacks can boost stock prices, they do not necessarily affect valuations. To be more accurate, stock repurchases will not affect P/E, but will increase the price-to-book ratio. Therefore, after listed companies repurchase shares substantially, we will see significant changes in PB relative to PE.</p><p>The main reason for this difference is that the share repurchase will not affect the company's total market value and net profit, but will lead to a decrease in equity, which will cause the company's price-to-book ratio to increase significantly while the P/E remains unchanged. We assume that Company A has repurchased 20% of its shares at the market price. After the repurchase, the company's total equity will drop from 200 billion yuan to 160 billion yuan. Under the condition that the company's total market value remains unchanged, the price-to-book ratio will increase from the original 1 times to 1.25 times. Since the company's net profit has not been affected, P/E will continue to maintain the level of 4 times before the repurchase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b19d2fc9b3c26a462087305561545\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even from the perspective of the whole market, there is this relationship between P/E and price-to-book ratio. We have standardized the P/E and price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 Index. From the trend point of view, with the substantial increase in the repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index after 2010, the PB increase of the S&P 500 Index is significantly higher than that of PE. Larger, from the beginning of 2010 to April 25, 2022, the PE of the S&P 500 Index has increased from 19 times to 21.3 times, and the PB has increased from 2.0 times to 4.3 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00d74505bd293d3aabeddec93c61174\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Under the stock repurchase, the company's stock price has increased significantly, but P/E has not been affected. Therefore, we see that the current P/E of the S&P 500 index is 21.3 times, which is 56.9% in the historical quantile since 1991. Far from overvalued. This is because the company's EPS has also increased accordingly, but in fact, for the company's value, the increase in EPS brought about by the reduction of equity capital has not created more value for the company, and to a greater extent, it is only a digital game. It is precisely for this reason that if we look at the price-to-book ratio, the current price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index is 4.3 times, which has reached the historical quantile of 88.6% since the beginning of 1991.</p><p><b>4. Potential risks of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>4.1 Stock market repurchases may lead to a decline in market liquidity</b></p><p><b>The long-term bull market of U.S. stocks in the past ten years has been the second longest-lasting bull market in the history of U.S. stocks since World War II, but it is the only bull market that has emerged against the background of a significant decline in trading volume.</b>Since 2010, as the index price continues to rise, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index has declined year by year. At the end of March 2022, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index was only 17.4 billion, which has dropped to the level of the late 1990s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061522652b140a8b126f90d429219659\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason for the price increase and volume decline of U.S. stocks is that a large number of share repurchases by listed companies have reduced the number of shares in circulation in the market, which will also lead to a decline in market liquidity. Take Apple as an example. Since 2013, the company has continuously increased the scale of stock repurchases, and the current number of outstanding shares in the market is 16.32 billion shares, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with the peak level at the end of 2012.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289a5dc4fdb8aaa08f16cc8f333300d2\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the sharp increase in the scale of passive investment is also an important reason for the sharp decline in U.S. stock trading volume, and U.S. stock repurchases can strengthen the positive feedback logic of passive investment in the bull market and further promote the increase in the scale of passive investment.</b>The repurchase of stocks by listed companies has brought about an increase in stock prices. Since passive investment has the advantages of low fee rates and better medium-and long-term performance in the bull market than active funds, investors have bought passive funds one after another, and the increased funds have flowed into index constituent stocks, superimposed on listed companies. The company continues to buy back stocks, further pushing the stock index up and increasing the scale of capital inflows into passive investment. This positive feedback model has continued in the U.S. stock market over the past decade, so we have seen that the asset size of ETFs in the U.S. stock market has increased significantly since 2009.</p><p><b>In the case of a sharp decline in liquidity, once the upward trend of the index is reversed, the positive feedback mechanism of passive investment will also be reversed immediately, which will contribute to the decline of the market. Such a large-scale gushing of funds can easily cause a stampede, and there is a high probability that it will bring very serious consequences.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04884a97efb5559e375ab06921927940\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2 Repurchases prompt listed companies to use financial leverage to the extreme</b></p><p>Repurchase itself can be regarded as a kind of dividend policy of the company. The change in recent years is that the method of \"bond issuance and repurchase\" is favored by more and more companies, which makes listed companies use financial leverage to the extreme.</p><p>Many listed companies have repurchased a large number of shares, making their net assets negative and their asset-liability ratio rise to more than 100%, forming an insolvency situation in corporate financial management in the traditional sense. McDonald's, which was cited earlier when introducing the financial principles involved in repurchases, is an example. The company's asset-liability ratio was only 63% in 2014, and reached a maximum of 119% in 2018. In recent years, it still exceeds 100%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7204db63d2dfbd643ab86e4b40f7980\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Starbucks is another example. In 2017, the asset-liability ratio was only 62%, reached a maximum of 132% in 2019, and it will still be 117% in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93949197cb727b87db6cec84808a0901\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The debt leverage ratio of listed companies in the United States is ridiculously high, and financial leverage is used to the extreme. Take the S&P 500 constituent stocks in the table below as an example. The 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratios all have asset-liability ratios exceeding 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a3ce4721d3e0185ce386b5657c76cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"988\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial leverage and asset-liability ratio are important indicators to measure financial risks, and also important reference factors in corporate credit rating system. The increase of corporate financial leverage and asset-liability ratio will inevitably lead to the increase of financial risks, and will inevitably affect the credit rating of enterprises.</p><p>We have compiled statistics on the current credit ratings of the main companies constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index in the United States. The data shows that more than 80% of the corporate entities in the S&P 500 Index constituent stocks have investment grade credit ratings, and more than 10% of corporate investment entities have speculative credit ratings. In addition, it is worth noting that among the current investment-grade main companies, the credit rating of most companies is the lowest level of investment-grade, that is, Baa, which means that in the case of large fluctuations in the external economic environment, most companies may face the risk of lowering their credit rating from investment grade to speculative grade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c25dff19b1c181a4f5a0e5ed1182387\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e45b03dcf8e324c10f228abce824fe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the sample range of companies is narrowed to the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks, we can see that the proportion of companies with speculative credit ratings has increased significantly.</b>Under Moody's classification rating, among these 50 companies, the number of speculative-grade companies accounts for 23.3%, and under the S&P rating classification it is 36.2%, both of which are significantly higher than the proportion of corresponding classifications under all S&P 500 constituent stocks. Similarly, among investment-grade entity companies, Baa (Moody's's lowest investment-grade rating) or BBB (Standard & Poor's lowest investment-grade rating) accounts for an overwhelming proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba608d69d552164772f0c78db122613c\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1825ece9b330eff6989d428d65b10aeb\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The impact of large-scale bond repurchase on corporate credit rating is significant. In 2015, the Moody's credit rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds dropped by two consecutive levels, mainly because it planned to increase the issuance of Dividend and stock repurchases through bond issuance. In May 2015, Moody's downgraded the rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds from A2 to A3. Part of the reason for this downgrade is that McDonald's plans to accelerate the return of $8 billion to $9 billion to shareholders through dividend distribution and stock buybacks. Moody's believes that McDonald's guidance to accelerate stock buybacks and distribute high Dividend is a manifestation of its aggressive financial policy, which will lead to a sharp increase in debt levels. In November 2015, Moody's downgraded McDonald's corporate credit rating to Baa1 again as McDonald's announced that it would increase the amount returned to shareholders through bond issuance.</p><p>In addition, in 2015, Standard & Poor's downgraded McDonald's rating twice, and McDonald's long-term issuer credit rating dropped from A to A-and then to BBB +. In the same year, Fitch Ratings directly downgraded McDonald's long-term issuer default rating from A to BBB +, and again to BBB in 2016.</p><p>The same is true of Starbucks. In November 2017, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to A3. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks planned to return $15 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases from 2018 to 2020, and part of the returned funds would come from additional debt. Moody's believes that this will lead to a significant increase in debt levels and a substantial deterioration in credit indicators, so it downgraded Starbucks' corporate bond rating. In June 2018, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to Baa1 again. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks decided to significantly increase debt to increase the amount returned to shareholders to $25 billion. Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings also downgraded their corporate ratings after Starbucks decided to issue bonds to repurchase shares, and Starbucks' rating dropped from A to BBB +.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0625be465abe14191484b6704a99229\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the high debt leverage ratio itself is not a sufficient condition for the stock price to fall, but it does also lay the hidden danger of corporate debt default. Especially in the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the credit risk caused by high financial leverage is continuing to rise.</b></p><p><b>5. The experience of U.S. stock repurchase on A-shares</b></p><p>Compared with the U.S. stock market, the current scale of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies is still at an extremely low level. As of April 26, 2022, in fiscal year 2021, the total amount used by U.S. listed companies to repurchase common shares and preferred shares reached 7.37 trillion yuan, while the amount of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies during the same period was only 121.1 billion yuan, less than 2% of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18608cdb64ca03bda791eb503fb57cdb\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, from the trend point of view, after the release of the new regulations on stock repurchase in 2018, the enthusiasm of A-share listed companies for repurchases has increased significantly, and the scale of repurchases has expanded significantly. In the whole year of 2012, only 11 A-share listed companies conducted share repurchases, with a total repurchase amount of 2.5 billion yuan; For the whole year of 2021, the number of listed companies conducting A-share stock repurchases has risen to 994, and the cumulative repurchase amount for the whole year has reached 121.1 billion yuan.</p><p>In the article \"Enlightenment from Previous A-share Repurchase Booms\", we review the performance of listed companies in previous A-share repurchase booms, and found that 1) undervalued companies had obvious excess returns after the release of the repurchase plan; 2) The proportion of the company's repurchase amount to the total market value is positively correlated with excess returns; 3) Company repurchases have a long-term supporting effect on stock prices.</p><p>Therefore, whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support the stock price to a certain extent or even push the stock price up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies. On the one hand, we believe that as A-share listed companies conduct more corporate repurchases in the future, there is still potential room for the company's stock price to rise. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, there has been a new round of stock market repurchase boom in the market. As of April 15th, the amount of repurchases implemented by listed companies during the year was about 27.2 billion yuan, and the number of companies that have implemented repurchases during the year exceeded 400. More and more listed companies' repurchases also highlight their confidence in the future market to a certain extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4606ec8bf026e232ce9427bc25c625f\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(All individual stock information involved in this report is only a summary of public information, and does not constitute any profit forecast and investment rating)</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zxjzzl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Understand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnderstand stock repurchase in one article: How much impact does it have on stock prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">追寻价值之路</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-28 14:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support stock prices to a certain extent or even push stock prices up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies.<b>Core conclusions</b></p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest. After years of development, it has become a common means in the capital market. Especially in the last ten years, the scale of repurchase by listed companies in the United States has soared sharply.</p><p>Drawing on the experience of the U.S. stock market, this article discusses and sorts out issues related to stock repurchases. The main contents are divided into five parts:</p><p>The first part introduces the basic concept of stock repurchase, including four common ways of repurchase and the motivation of stock repurchase; The second part discusses the related financial treatment of stock repurchase, involving whether to choose the financial treatment of canceling shares after repurchase and why some enterprises have negative net assets after repurchase; The third part sorts out the logic that stock repurchases are conducive to stock price rises. One is to directly increase the demand for company stocks, and the other is to improve financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies. In addition, judging from the performance of U.S. stocks, stock repurchases It is an important part of stock price yields, and the impact of repurchases on price-to-book ratios is more significant than P/E; The fourth part discusses the potential risks of stock repurchase, mainly including the decline of market liquidity and the high financial leverage risk of listed companies caused by repurchase; The fifth part is an introduction to the current repurchase situation of A shares and the experience of US stock repurchase on A shares. Risk warning: Repurchases increase financial leverage risks, historical experience does not represent the future, the macro economy is less than expected, and overseas markets fluctuate significantly</p><p><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. Introduction to the basic concepts of stock repurchase</b></p><p><b>1.1 What is a share repurchase?</b></p><p>Stock repurchase refers to the behavior of listed companies using cash and other means to repurchase a certain amount of outstanding stocks of the company from the stock market, which will reduce the number of outstanding stocks of the company, thereby achieving market value management, equity incentives, and stabilizing stock prices. and other positive effects.</p><p>There are two main sources of funds for enterprises to repurchase stocks: one is internal funds, including net profits obtained from daily operations of enterprises or cash sources such as government tax cuts and tax rebates, as well as self-owned funds such as the original retained earnings of enterprises; The second is external funds, which borrow money and add leverage through bond issuance and other means to achieve share repurchase.</p><p>Stock repurchase originated in the American capital market at the earliest, especially after the 1980s. Previously, because western European and American countries advocated the theory of maintaining corporate capital, and the repurchase behavior itself was suspected of market manipulation, few companies conducted stock repurchases. It was not until the 1980s that stock repurchases began to gradually develop. After more than 40 years of development, stock repurchase has become a common means in developed capital markets. It is widely used to optimize the capital structure, enhance the company's value, or send positive signals when the company's stock price is undervalued.</p><p><b>1.2 Four common ways of stock repurchase</b></p><p>According to the different methods of determining the repurchase price, stock repurchase can generally be divided into four basic methods: open market operation, cash offer repurchase, agreement repurchase and transferable sale right repurchase.</p><p>Open market repurchase is a popular stock repurchase method in the current US market. Listed companies that repurchase shares through the open market will directly repurchase shares in the open market at the current market price. Stock repurchases under this method are more flexible. Listed companies can freely decide factors such as the time and quantity of repurchases according to their own circumstances. Moreover, stock repurchases under this method do not need to pay additional premiums.</p><p>Another more common method of stock repurchase is offer repurchase. There are generally two pricing methods for listed companies to repurchase stocks through tender offers. One is to use a fixed price to issue an offer to shareholders within an agreed period to purchase a certain number of stocks. Listed companies generally choose this pricing method when they need a large number of company stocks in a short period of time. However, a sharp increase in demand in the short term will lead to paying a certain premium for repurchasing stocks. Another pricing method under tender offer repurchase is Dutch auction repurchase, which will give the company greater flexibility in the repurchase price, so it is also widely used. In Dutch auction repurchase, the listed company sets the range of repurchase price and the quantity planned to repurchase, and then shareholders express the number of shares they are willing to sell at a certain level within the price range. Finally, the listed company will summarize the wishes of all shareholders and repurchase shares according to the low to high price order until the established repurchase quantity of the listed company is reached.</p><p>Agreement buybacks are less transparent compared to open market buybacks and offer buybacks. Because under the agreement repurchase method, listed companies directly enter into private agreements with some shareholders to repurchase shares according to the price and quantity agreed in the agreement. This method is relatively free in terms of pricing, transaction time and payment method, and usually the negotiated price is lower than the market price.</p><p>Transferable right of sale repurchase is a special way of stock repurchase. The company that implements stock repurchase gives shareholders the right to sell their stocks to the company at a specific price within a certain period of time. Once this right is formed, it can be separated and traded with the attached stocks. Listed companies issue transferable authorizations to their shareholders, and shareholders who are unwilling to sell their shares can sell this right separately to meet the different demands of various shareholders.</p><p><b>1.3 Why Stock Repurchase?</b></p><p>The benefits of share repurchases are multifaceted. From the perspective of the company as a whole, whether it is internal or external funds to repurchase shares, it can improve the capital structure of the enterprise and reduce the cost of supervision and restraint on the company's management. The way of issuing bonds to repurchase shares can also make use of the tax shield effect of debts to achieve reasonable tax avoidance, and urge the management to focus on the debt repayment and long-term sustainable operation of the enterprise. For those shareholders who sell their stocks in the stock repurchase plan, they can sell their stocks to obtain liquidity. In addition, compared with the direct distribution of cash Dividend, since capital gains are generally not taxed or the tax rate is lower, effective tax avoidance can be achieved by distributing dividends through stock repurchase. Shareholders who still hold shares after the company implements the repurchase plan can also benefit. As the net capital of the enterprise will be significantly reduced after the completion of the stock repurchase, under the condition that other conditions remain unchanged, the financial indicators such as the return on net assets, earnings per share, and net assets per share of the enterprise will all be significantly improved. If we classify the motivations of listed companies' stock repurchases, we can also classify them into the following four categories: one is financial motivation, the other is signal transmission appeal, the third is to reduce principal-agent risks, and the fourth is to increase company control to prevent hostile takeovers.</p><p><b>The financial motivation of listed companies to buy back shares is mainly related to their capital structure and dividend policy. Listed companies often buy back shares for financial reasons such as increasing earnings per share, improving capital structure and increasing shareholder wealth effect.</b>Specifically, the improvement of stock repurchase on the financial-related factors of listed companies is mainly reflected in four aspects:</p><p><b>First, improve the company's earnings per share.</b>Since buybacks will reduce the number of outstanding shares of listed companies, the decrease in the denominator when calculating earnings per share will directly lead to an increase in EPS, which may also increase the company's stock price.</p><p><b>Second, realize dividend tax avoidance and increase the shareholder wealth of listed companies.</b>Since the tax rate of cash dividends is higher than the tax rate of capital gains, cash return to shareholders by share repurchase instead of dividends can help shareholders achieve reasonable tax avoidance. In the PRC, the Dividend dividend income of individual investors whose shareholding period is less than one month is fully included in the taxable income, and the actual tax burden is 20%, but capital gains are temporarily exempted from income tax.</p><p><b>Thirdly, optimize the capital structure of the company and improve the value of the company through the tax shield effect.</b>No matter how the stock repurchase is carried out, it will reduce the company's owner's equity, and bond repurchase will even increase the company's debt, thus increasing the company's financial leverage ratio and producing a leverage effect. Therefore, for companies with low financial leverage, this can not only optimize the company's capital structure, but also make use of the tax shield effect brought by financing interest to improve the company's value.</p><p><b>Fourth, stock repurchases have high financial flexibility.</b>There are generally two ways for listed companies to return cash to shareholders: cash dividends and stock repurchases. However, the way of paying cash dividends usually makes shareholders expect future dividends, which requires the company to have stable cash flow. However, stock repurchase occurs occasionally. Listed companies can choose the amount, quantity, time, etc. of repurchase relatively freely under the stock repurchase method, which has great financial flexibility compared with the stock repurchase method.</p><p><b>The signal transmission appeal of stock repurchase is mainly based on the assumption of information asymmetry. Listed companies can transmit the signal to the market that the company's stock price is undervalued through stock repurchase, because the company will only carry out stock repurchase when it thinks that its stock price is undervalued. Sending a positive signal to the market in this way has a positive impact on the company's short-term operating income.</b></p><p><b>Share buybacks also help reduce principal-agent risk.</b>Because the management right and ownership of listed companies are separated, and the goals of agent and principal are not completely consistent, it may be that the principal can't clearly understand the goal bias of agent, thus causing the interests of principal to be damaged. Especially when the company's free cash flow is relatively abundant, the company's management may make over-investment or consumption for its own interests, thus encroaching on the interests of the company's shareholders. In this case, the company returns cash to shareholders through stock repurchase, which not only improves the efficiency of cash flow use, but also reduces agency costs and principal-agent risks.</p><p><b>Increasing control right through stock repurchase, preventing equity dilution and hostile takeover are also one of the motives of stock repurchase of listed companies.</b>In the 1980s, with the rise of leveraged mergers and acquisitions in the United States, hostile takeover activities gradually increased. In order to prevent companies from being hostile takeover, listed companies have repurchased shares to increase stock prices, reduce outstanding shares and resist hostile takeover. While there are fewer hostile takeovers now, using the repurchased shares for management's equity incentive program also helps avoid dilution.</p><p><b>2. Financial treatment of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>2.1 The difference between stock cancellation or not after share repurchase</b></p><p>For listed companies, after the stock repurchase is completed, the company can cancel the repurchased shares or keep the repurchased shares as \"treasury shares\".</p><p>The \"treasury shares\" retained by the company still belong to the issued shares, which are held by the company itself, and can be sold to the market at an appropriate time, issued convertible bonds or used as incentives for employees. However, the characteristics of \"treasury shares\" are similar to unissued stocks. \"Treasury shares\" have no voting rights, nor the right to pay dividends, and cannot be realized even after the company goes bankrupt. Therefore, \"treasury shares\" do not participate in the calculation of indicators such as earnings per share, return on net assets and net assets per share.</p><p><b>Therefore, after the stock repurchase is completed, whether the repurchased stocks are cancelled or not, it will not affect financial indicators such as earnings per share, net assets per share and return on net assets, because even if they are retained as \"treasury stocks\", these stocks will not participate in the calculation of these indicators.</b>From this perspective, there will be no big difference between cancelling and not canceling the repurchased shares for companies.</p><p><b>However, in most cases, enterprises will choose to keep the repurchased stocks as \"treasury stocks\" after the stock repurchase is completed.</b>We have counted the handling of stock repurchases of the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks. Among them, 30 listed companies have chosen to repurchase stocks and retained \"treasury shares\", and the other 20 listed companies have chosen to cancel the repurchased stocks or have not carried out stock repurchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/485e1f54b04ed2c89a5d83b631a23a53\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The reason why enterprises tend to keep \"treasury stocks\" is mainly because \"treasury stocks\" themselves can bring certain positive significance to enterprises.</b></p><p>First, it can provide the company with sufficient flexibility in terms of financing and reduce financing costs. Since \"treasury shares\" are still issued shares, the company can sell \"treasury shares\" when there is a financing need; Compared with allotment of shares or issuance of new shares, the cost of obtaining funds by selling \"treasury shares\" is lower, which can not only save the supervision and intermediary costs related to issuing shares, but also avoid selling at a discount when the market permits.</p><p>Second, it is conducive to the implementation of incentive plans for employees or management. \"Treasury shares\" are one of the important stock sources for companies to issue equity incentives to employees and management. Therefore, for U.S. listed companies, retaining \"treasury shares\" can facilitate the implementation of equity incentive plans, etc., and avoid the lack of sufficient shares. The source of shares makes the incentive plan unable to be implemented.</p><p>The third is to facilitate the company's mergers and acquisitions and prevent the company from suffering hostile takeover. Merger and acquisition through treasury share exchange can provide certain flexibility for the company's merger and acquisition behavior; In addition, the behavior of retaining \"treasury shares\" after the repurchase can also prevent the company from being hostile takeovers. On the one hand, the repurchase pushes up the stock price, which makes it more difficult for the acquirer. On the other hand, \"treasury shares\" can supplement the number of shares in circulation of the company. Provide buffer time for the company to deal with hostile takeovers.</p><p>Fourth, it is conducive to the stability of stock prices. When there is irrational fluctuation in the market, enterprises can stabilize the price fluctuation by adjusting the supply of outstanding stocks, stabilize the stock price, and avoid the company being greatly affected by irrational factors such as market sentiment.</p><p><b>2.2 How does repurchase lead to negative net assets of enterprises?</b></p><p>Among the benefits that stock repurchases can bring, a very important one is that stock repurchases can increase EPS and the company's overall ROE. This is mainly because stock repurchases will reduce the company's net capital, and a significant decline in the denominator will bring Significant improvements including EPS and ROE. In even more exaggerated circumstances, some U.S.-listed companies have repurchased a large number of issued shares in the form of bond repurchases, resulting in a situation where total liabilities are greater than total assets and negative net assets. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid.</p><p>So how do these listed companies in the United States make their net assets negative through buybacks?<b>The main reason behind this is that there is a huge difference between the book value of equity assets in the financial statements and the market value of stocks in the secondary market. The stock price in the secondary market will not be reflected in the balance sheet, so the book value of stocks and the market value are not equal. When enterprises repurchase, they mainly refer to the market value of stocks, so the cost of repurchasing stocks often has a premium relative to the book value. Therefore, whether it is transferred to treasury stocks after repurchase, used as a deduction item when calculating shareholders' equity, or retained earnings account is offset when cancelled after repurchase, as long as the premium on the cost of repurchased stocks is too large, it may lead to The retained earnings account turned negative, and even caused the company's overall net assets to show a negative value.</b></p><p>Take Starbucks Corporation, for example. In the annual report for fiscal year 2019 (from September 30, 2018 to September 30, 2019) released by Starbucks, the company's total assets dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018 to US $19.22 billion, but its total liabilities dropped from US $24.16 billion in fiscal year 2018. US $22.98 billion rose to US $25.45 billion, which means that Starbucks' net assets, that is, owner's equity, dropped from US $1.18 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-US $6.23 billion in fiscal year 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0772be7e56e10608ecbc5ec6b38ac32\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judging from the shareholder equity breakdown account in Starbucks' balance sheet, the main reason why the company's net assets were less than 0 in 2019 is that the retained earnings account has dropped significantly.</b>In fiscal year 2018, Starbucks' retained earnings still had a balance of nearly US $1.5 billion, but by the end of fiscal year 2019, retained earnings dropped sharply to-US $5.77 billion, which directly led to Starbucks' shareholders' equity turning negative significantly. Since then, the company's retained earnings account has been Maintain a negative state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec889287bc85df1b916c06e198a16507\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The main reason for the negative retained earnings is stock repurchases.</b>Take the first negative retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 as an example. During fiscal year 2019, Starbucks conducted a large number of stock repurchases, and the number of issued share capital dropped from 1.31 billion shares in fiscal year 2018 to 1.18 billion shares. The total share capital decreased by US $100,000, the capital reserve decreased by US $610 million, and the premium part of corporate stock repurchases offset retained earnings by as much as US $9.52 billion.</p><p>From the perspective of changes in owner's equity, the increase or decrease of Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 was mainly affected by changes in accounting policies, net profit, stock repurchases and cash dividends. If the impact of stock repurchases is not taken into account, changes in accounting policies and net profits will increase retained earnings by US $496 million and US $3.599 billion respectively. Even with a cash dividend of US $1.8 billion, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 will still be higher than that at the beginning of the period. increase. However, under the influence of stock repurchases, Starbucks' retained earnings in fiscal year 2019 not only did not increase, but decreased significantly, and even experienced a large negative value, ultimately making net assets less than 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c366d6c37385579e78b67920cd8cf623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For the financial treatment of shares repurchased and transferred to treasury shares, we can refer to the case of McDonald's Corporation. As early as fiscal year 2016, McDonald's net assets were already less than 0; Since then, McDonald's has continued to issue bonds to repurchase tradable shares and transfer them to treasury stock, resulting in a continuous decline in the company's net assets. As of the end of fiscal year 2019 (December 31, 2019), McDonald's total assets rose from US $32.8 billion at the end of the previous period to US $47.5 billion, while total liabilities also rose significantly from US $39.1 billion to US $55.7 billion. Therefore, McDonald's Shareholder equity dropped from-US $6.3 billion at the end of 2018 to-US $8.2 billion, a record low. Although the company's shareholders' equity has rebounded in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, it still remains negative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d65757489198ea8fd29d1769560c54\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From the perspective of the breakdown of shareholders' equity, the continued decline of McDonald's shareholders' equity in 2019 was mainly due to the continued rise in the cost of treasury shares.</b>The values of capital reserve, retained earnings and other comprehensive income accounts that affect shareholders' equity in fiscal year 2019 all increased compared with fiscal year 2018, while the equity account remained unchanged. Only the allowance item for treasury shares dropped from-61.5 billion in fiscal year 2018 to-66.3 billion US dollars (which means that the cost of purchasing treasury shares increased from 61.5 billion US dollars to 66.3 billion US dollars), and resulted in a significant decline in shareholders' equity. Although the cost of treasury shares continues to rise in fiscal years 2020 and 2021, due to the significant increase in capital reserves and retained earnings accounts, shareholders' equity as a whole has rebounded slightly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a6095fde99dbb62d4aed332b2ec0f00\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the statement of changes in owner's equity, in fiscal year 2019, McDonald's continued to repurchase 25 million shares, and the total repurchase cost reached US $4.98 billion; At the same time, 4.2 million treasury shares were used to complete the stock exercise subscription plan, and the amount of treasury shares transferred out was US $180 million. Therefore, as of the end of fiscal year 2019, McDonald's repurchased a total of 914 million treasury shares, and the cumulative total cost of repurchasing treasury shares rose from US $61.5 billion to US $66.3 billion, resulting in a continued decline in shareholder equity to-US $8.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1653e1d47f48f71ec3b559f0778ebed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Stock repurchases are conducive to driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>3.1 The main logic of buybacks driving stock prices up</b></p><p><b>There are two main mechanisms for repurchases to promote the rise of stock prices. First, listed companies can directly increase the demand for the company's stocks to increase the stock price by repurchasing stocks, which is also the most direct channel for stock repurchases to have an impact.</b></p><p><b>In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, listed companies themselves have been a very important participant in the US stock market.</b>According to statistics from the Federal Reserve, between 2009 and 2021, among the major players in the equity market, ETF funds have accumulated a net purchase of US $2.77 trillion in stocks, and U.S. households and non-profit institutions have accumulated a net purchase of US $1.17 trillion. Mutual funds and other financial institutions have accumulated net sales of US $90.1 billion and US $2.27 trillion in equity assets respectively. The amount traded by non-financial companies to buy back shares has soared sharply in the past decade, with the cumulative amount of transactions in this part alone reaching nearly $5 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b3c3aacf75c2cbd431cf148c3a3c19\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9120a876d16c099ebeb3de8eeb78c05d\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We can assume that Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares and simulate its stock price performance before and after implementing the share repurchase to study the impact of the repurchase. According to the financial valuation model, the company's market value depends on indicators such as future cash flow or net profit, so the behavior of stock repurchase will not affect the company's total market value. We assume that before the repurchase, Company A had 20 billion outstanding shares, each worth 10 yuan, and the total market value was 200 billion yuan; This time, Company A will repurchase 20% of its shares. After the repurchase, there are still 16 billion shares in circulation. Since the total market value remains unchanged at 200 billion yuan, the price of each share will rise to 12.5 yuan, which is the same as the repurchase. Compared with before, the stock price rose by 25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8de2f35668d54b51facdda584daeebe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The second mechanism by which buybacks drive stock prices higher is by improving financial indicators such as EPS and overall ROE of listed companies.</b></p><p>Since Company A's repurchase behavior will not lead to changes in the company's net profit, the net profit before and after the repurchase is 50 billion yuan, so after the repurchase, Company A's EPS will rise from 2.5 yuan to 3.125 yuan, an increase of 25%.</p><p>The same is true for the stock market as a whole. Historical data shows that the trend of S&P 500 EPS is highly consistent with the trend of S&P 500 repurchase scale. From the trend point of view, the trend of S&P 500 Index EPS and repurchase scale has roughly gone through three stages since 2000. From 2000 to 2007, the index EPS increased slowly, and the scale of company repurchases also continued to increase. Index repurchases The amount of reduced share capital continues to rise. During the financial crisis in 2008, EPS fell sharply, and corporate buybacks also fell off a cliff. With the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, the EPS and repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index have been on the rise again since 2010. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the two experienced a short decline simultaneously.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3dc2083f3850c07834b3b5601694d4\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As an important financial indicator in the investment research system, ROE will also increase significantly after the company repurchases stocks. Take Apple as an example. Before 2012, there was basically no stock repurchase of its listed companies. 2013 was a turning point, and then the amount of repurchases began to soar sharply. If we look at the growth rate of net profit alone, Apple's fiscal year 2012 was US $41.7 billion and fiscal year 2021 was US $94.7 billion. The annualized compound growth rate of net profit is only 9.5%. When this growth rate is put in the A-share market, it is not a high-tech company at all, but more like a public utility company. But through a large number of share buybacks, Apple's ROE has increased from about 30% in 2013 to 150% in 2021. By fiscal year 2021, Apple's repurchases of common shares will be as high as US $86 billion, which can almost offset the net profit of that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2085bad141a0aa1528e6132dcceafae8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Stock repurchases will not only increase the ROE of listed companies, but even make the company's ROE turn negative in more exaggerated cases. In the A-share market, we often see companies with negative ROE. In this case, listed companies are losing money, so the net profit (numerator) is negative. In the U.S. stock market, many companies have made their net assets (denominator) negative because of too many repurchases. In this case, all traditional indicators such as ROE and PB are invalid. The following table reports the changes in McDonald's stock repurchases and ROE from fiscal years 2007 to 2021. It can be seen that before 2014, the company's ROE was roughly 35%. Then a large number of repurchases began. In 2015, the ROE reached 63%. After 2016, the company's share capital was negative, making the ROE negative.</p><p>Negative net assets mean that the company is insolvent in traditional textbooks, which is a signal that it is on the verge of bankruptcy. However, in the current US stock market, the stock prices of many such companies continue to rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b35b389852b97d68f11e2f01e54e78b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Stock repurchases will push up stock price yields</b></p><p><b>Stock returns come from Dividend dividends and changes in market value, and changes in market value are affected by profits and valuations. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term investment, stock returns can be decomposed into three parts: dividend repurchase income, stock valuation and corporate profits. Among them, dividend repurchase income occupies a very important position in the total stock return. In the American stock market, dividend repurchase income can even be said to be the main source of income for stock assets. Therefore, stock repurchases will have a significant impact on stock price returns, and we can see that the gap between the total return index and the ordinary index will increase with the repurchase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbb8fd064eb67ec1fa8705dca4d95dc\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the investment period of more than 30 years since the beginning of 1989, even after two major crises, the Internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008, investing in U.S. stocks will still bring very rich returns, among which dividend income occupies a very important position, which is reflected in the gap between the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 Total Return Index has been adjusted on the basis of the S&P 500 Index, and the dividends of sample stocks are included in the index income. The cumulative increase of the adjusted S&P 500 Total Return Index is nearly 30 times, while the increase of the S&P 500 Index is only 14.2 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3438f479b888125f194b418925a29206\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Philip U. Straehl et al. (The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal) An in-depth study was conducted on the long-term yield of the U.S. stock market from 1871 to 2014. The study found that, including the Dividend distributed by the company and the income generated by stock repurchases, dividend repurchase income can explain the historical yield of U.S. stocks. vast majority,<b>Especially after the rapid development of stock repurchases in 1970, the impact of repurchases on improving stock price returns was more significant.</b>From 1871 to 2014, the real yield of U.S. stocks (after excluding inflation) was about 7%, of which Dividend's yield was 4.5%. If the income from company repurchases is considered, the total dividend repurchase yield will rise to 4.89%, accounting for more than two-thirds of the real yield of U.S. stocks. The above conclusion is still valid after adjusting the research range of U.S. stocks. From 1901 to 2014, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.58%, of which the part from Dividend's income reached 4.29%. Including the corporate repurchase part, the total dividend repurchase The rate of return reached 4.78%; From 1970 to 2014, the Dividend income generated by U.S. stocks was 3.03%. After taking corporate buybacks into account, this part of the income rose to 4.26%. During the same period, the actual rate of return of U.S. stocks was 6.25%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad0938835357fb43662b8316e408bdd\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 After the repurchase, the stock price-to-book ratio will change significantly compared with the P/E</b></p><p>While share buybacks can boost stock prices, they do not necessarily affect valuations. To be more accurate, stock repurchases will not affect P/E, but will increase the price-to-book ratio. Therefore, after listed companies repurchase shares substantially, we will see significant changes in PB relative to PE.</p><p>The main reason for this difference is that the share repurchase will not affect the company's total market value and net profit, but will lead to a decrease in equity, which will cause the company's price-to-book ratio to increase significantly while the P/E remains unchanged. We assume that Company A has repurchased 20% of its shares at the market price. After the repurchase, the company's total equity will drop from 200 billion yuan to 160 billion yuan. Under the condition that the company's total market value remains unchanged, the price-to-book ratio will increase from the original 1 times to 1.25 times. Since the company's net profit has not been affected, P/E will continue to maintain the level of 4 times before the repurchase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b19d2fc9b3c26a462087305561545\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even from the perspective of the whole market, there is this relationship between P/E and price-to-book ratio. We have standardized the P/E and price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 Index. From the trend point of view, with the substantial increase in the repurchase amount of the S&P 500 Index after 2010, the PB increase of the S&P 500 Index is significantly higher than that of PE. Larger, from the beginning of 2010 to April 25, 2022, the PE of the S&P 500 Index has increased from 19 times to 21.3 times, and the PB has increased from 2.0 times to 4.3 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00d74505bd293d3aabeddec93c61174\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Under the stock repurchase, the company's stock price has increased significantly, but P/E has not been affected. Therefore, we see that the current P/E of the S&P 500 index is 21.3 times, which is 56.9% in the historical quantile since 1991. Far from overvalued. This is because the company's EPS has also increased accordingly, but in fact, for the company's value, the increase in EPS brought about by the reduction of equity capital has not created more value for the company, and to a greater extent, it is only a digital game. It is precisely for this reason that if we look at the price-to-book ratio, the current price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index is 4.3 times, which has reached the historical quantile of 88.6% since the beginning of 1991.</p><p><b>4. Potential risks of stock repurchases</b></p><p><b>4.1 Stock market repurchases may lead to a decline in market liquidity</b></p><p><b>The long-term bull market of U.S. stocks in the past ten years has been the second longest-lasting bull market in the history of U.S. stocks since World War II, but it is the only bull market that has emerged against the background of a significant decline in trading volume.</b>Since 2010, as the index price continues to rise, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index has declined year by year. At the end of March 2022, the trading volume of the S&P 500 Index was only 17.4 billion, which has dropped to the level of the late 1990s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/061522652b140a8b126f90d429219659\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>An important reason for the price increase and volume decline of U.S. stocks is that a large number of share repurchases by listed companies have reduced the number of shares in circulation in the market, which will also lead to a decline in market liquidity. Take Apple as an example. Since 2013, the company has continuously increased the scale of stock repurchases, and the current number of outstanding shares in the market is 16.32 billion shares, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with the peak level at the end of 2012.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289a5dc4fdb8aaa08f16cc8f333300d2\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the sharp increase in the scale of passive investment is also an important reason for the sharp decline in U.S. stock trading volume, and U.S. stock repurchases can strengthen the positive feedback logic of passive investment in the bull market and further promote the increase in the scale of passive investment.</b>The repurchase of stocks by listed companies has brought about an increase in stock prices. Since passive investment has the advantages of low fee rates and better medium-and long-term performance in the bull market than active funds, investors have bought passive funds one after another, and the increased funds have flowed into index constituent stocks, superimposed on listed companies. The company continues to buy back stocks, further pushing the stock index up and increasing the scale of capital inflows into passive investment. This positive feedback model has continued in the U.S. stock market over the past decade, so we have seen that the asset size of ETFs in the U.S. stock market has increased significantly since 2009.</p><p><b>In the case of a sharp decline in liquidity, once the upward trend of the index is reversed, the positive feedback mechanism of passive investment will also be reversed immediately, which will contribute to the decline of the market. Such a large-scale gushing of funds can easily cause a stampede, and there is a high probability that it will bring very serious consequences.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04884a97efb5559e375ab06921927940\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4.2 Repurchases prompt listed companies to use financial leverage to the extreme</b></p><p>Repurchase itself can be regarded as a kind of dividend policy of the company. The change in recent years is that the method of \"bond issuance and repurchase\" is favored by more and more companies, which makes listed companies use financial leverage to the extreme.</p><p>Many listed companies have repurchased a large number of shares, making their net assets negative and their asset-liability ratio rise to more than 100%, forming an insolvency situation in corporate financial management in the traditional sense. McDonald's, which was cited earlier when introducing the financial principles involved in repurchases, is an example. The company's asset-liability ratio was only 63% in 2014, and reached a maximum of 119% in 2018. In recent years, it still exceeds 100%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7204db63d2dfbd643ab86e4b40f7980\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Starbucks is another example. In 2017, the asset-liability ratio was only 62%, reached a maximum of 132% in 2019, and it will still be 117% in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93949197cb727b87db6cec84808a0901\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The debt leverage ratio of listed companies in the United States is ridiculously high, and financial leverage is used to the extreme. Take the S&P 500 constituent stocks in the table below as an example. The 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratios all have asset-liability ratios exceeding 90%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a3ce4721d3e0185ce386b5657c76cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"988\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial leverage and asset-liability ratio are important indicators to measure financial risks, and also important reference factors in corporate credit rating system. The increase of corporate financial leverage and asset-liability ratio will inevitably lead to the increase of financial risks, and will inevitably affect the credit rating of enterprises.</p><p>We have compiled statistics on the current credit ratings of the main companies constituent stocks of the S&P 500 Index in the United States. The data shows that more than 80% of the corporate entities in the S&P 500 Index constituent stocks have investment grade credit ratings, and more than 10% of corporate investment entities have speculative credit ratings. In addition, it is worth noting that among the current investment-grade main companies, the credit rating of most companies is the lowest level of investment-grade, that is, Baa, which means that in the case of large fluctuations in the external economic environment, most companies may face the risk of lowering their credit rating from investment grade to speculative grade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c25dff19b1c181a4f5a0e5ed1182387\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e45b03dcf8e324c10f228abce824fe\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>If the sample range of companies is narrowed to the 50 companies with the highest asset-liability ratio among the S&P 500 constituent stocks, we can see that the proportion of companies with speculative credit ratings has increased significantly.</b>Under Moody's classification rating, among these 50 companies, the number of speculative-grade companies accounts for 23.3%, and under the S&P rating classification it is 36.2%, both of which are significantly higher than the proportion of corresponding classifications under all S&P 500 constituent stocks. Similarly, among investment-grade entity companies, Baa (Moody's's lowest investment-grade rating) or BBB (Standard & Poor's lowest investment-grade rating) accounts for an overwhelming proportion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba608d69d552164772f0c78db122613c\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1825ece9b330eff6989d428d65b10aeb\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The impact of large-scale bond repurchase on corporate credit rating is significant. In 2015, the Moody's credit rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds dropped by two consecutive levels, mainly because it planned to increase the issuance of Dividend and stock repurchases through bond issuance. In May 2015, Moody's downgraded the rating of McDonald's senior unsecured bonds from A2 to A3. Part of the reason for this downgrade is that McDonald's plans to accelerate the return of $8 billion to $9 billion to shareholders through dividend distribution and stock buybacks. Moody's believes that McDonald's guidance to accelerate stock buybacks and distribute high Dividend is a manifestation of its aggressive financial policy, which will lead to a sharp increase in debt levels. In November 2015, Moody's downgraded McDonald's corporate credit rating to Baa1 again as McDonald's announced that it would increase the amount returned to shareholders through bond issuance.</p><p>In addition, in 2015, Standard & Poor's downgraded McDonald's rating twice, and McDonald's long-term issuer credit rating dropped from A to A-and then to BBB +. In the same year, Fitch Ratings directly downgraded McDonald's long-term issuer default rating from A to BBB +, and again to BBB in 2016.</p><p>The same is true of Starbucks. In November 2017, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to A3. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks planned to return $15 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases from 2018 to 2020, and part of the returned funds would come from additional debt. Moody's believes that this will lead to a significant increase in debt levels and a substantial deterioration in credit indicators, so it downgraded Starbucks' corporate bond rating. In June 2018, Moody's downgraded Starbucks' senior unsecured bonds to Baa1 again. The reason for the downgrade was that Starbucks decided to significantly increase debt to increase the amount returned to shareholders to $25 billion. Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings also downgraded their corporate ratings after Starbucks decided to issue bonds to repurchase shares, and Starbucks' rating dropped from A to BBB +.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0625be465abe14191484b6704a99229\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Of course, the high debt leverage ratio itself is not a sufficient condition for the stock price to fall, but it does also lay the hidden danger of corporate debt default. Especially in the Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, the credit risk caused by high financial leverage is continuing to rise.</b></p><p><b>5. The experience of U.S. stock repurchase on A-shares</b></p><p>Compared with the U.S. stock market, the current scale of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies is still at an extremely low level. As of April 26, 2022, in fiscal year 2021, the total amount used by U.S. listed companies to repurchase common shares and preferred shares reached 7.37 trillion yuan, while the amount of stock repurchases by A-share listed companies during the same period was only 121.1 billion yuan, less than 2% of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18608cdb64ca03bda791eb503fb57cdb\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, from the trend point of view, after the release of the new regulations on stock repurchase in 2018, the enthusiasm of A-share listed companies for repurchases has increased significantly, and the scale of repurchases has expanded significantly. In the whole year of 2012, only 11 A-share listed companies conducted share repurchases, with a total repurchase amount of 2.5 billion yuan; For the whole year of 2021, the number of listed companies conducting A-share stock repurchases has risen to 994, and the cumulative repurchase amount for the whole year has reached 121.1 billion yuan.</p><p>In the article \"Enlightenment from Previous A-share Repurchase Booms\", we review the performance of listed companies in previous A-share repurchase booms, and found that 1) undervalued companies had obvious excess returns after the release of the repurchase plan; 2) The proportion of the company's repurchase amount to the total market value is positively correlated with excess returns; 3) Company repurchases have a long-term supporting effect on stock prices.</p><p>Therefore, whether from a theoretical point of view or from the historical experience of U.S. stocks or A-shares, stock repurchases can indeed support the stock price to a certain extent or even push the stock price up. This means that under the same profitability situation, stock repurchases will be beneficial to the stock prices of listed companies. On the one hand, we believe that as A-share listed companies conduct more corporate repurchases in the future, there is still potential room for the company's stock price to rise. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, there has been a new round of stock market repurchase boom in the market. As of April 15th, the amount of repurchases implemented by listed companies during the year was about 27.2 billion yuan, and the number of companies that have implemented repurchases during the year exceeded 400. More and more listed companies' repurchases also highlight their confidence in the future market to a certain extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4606ec8bf026e232ce9427bc25c625f\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(All individual stock information involved in this report is only a summary of public information, and does not constitute any profit forecast and investment rating)</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q\">追寻价值之路</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Fj9F_K7nZiupMDGYFkVz0Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116937204","content_text":"不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。核心结论股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场，经过多年发展后目前已经成为资本市场一种常用的手段，特别是最近十年里，美国上市公司回购规模大幅飙升。本文借鉴美股市场的经验，对股票回购的相关问题进行了讨论和梳理，主要内容分为五个部分：第一部分介绍了股票回购的基本概念，包括回购常见的四种方式以及股票回购的动因；第二部分讨论了股票回购的相关财务处理问题，涉及回购后是否选择注销股份的财务处理以及部分企业回购后为什么会出现净资产为负值的情况；第三部分梳理了股票回购有利于股价上涨的逻辑，一是直接增加公司股票的需求，二是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标，此外，从美股的表现来看，股票回购是股价收益率的重要组成部分，回购对市净率的影响要比市盈率更加显著；第四部分探讨了股票回购的潜在风险，主要包括市场流动性下降以及回购导致的上市公司高财务杠杆风险；第五部分是A股目前的回购情况介绍以及美股回购对A股的经验借鉴。风险提示：回购增加财务杠杆风险、历史经验不代表未来、宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动报告正文1，股票回购的基本概念介绍1.1 什么是股票回购？股票回购指的是上市公司利用现金等方式，从股票市场上回购本公司发行在外一定数额的股票的行为，这将减少企业流通在外的股票数量，从而达到市值管理、股权激励、稳定股价等积极作用。企业回购股票的资金来源主要有两个：一是内部资金，包括企业日常经营获得的净利润或者政府减税、返税等现金来源，以及企业原有的留存收益等自有资金；二是外部资金，通过发债等方式借钱加杠杆实现股份回购。股票回购最早起源于美国资本市场，特别是在上世纪80年代之后得到了快速发展。此前由于西方欧美等国家提倡保持公司资本的理论，同时回购行为本身存在着市场操纵的嫌疑，很少有公司进行股票回购，直至20世纪80年代，股票回购才开始逐渐发展。在经过了超过40年的发展后，目前股票回购已经成为发达资本市场一种常用的手段，被广泛运用于优化资本结构、提升公司价值，或者是在公司股价被低估时传递积极信号。1.2 股票回购常见的四种方式根据回购价格确定方式的不同，股票回购一般可以分为公开市场操作、现金要约回购、协议回购和可转让出售权回购四种基本方式。公开市场回购是当前美国市场中较为流行的一种股票回购方式，通过公开市场回购股票的上市公司将直接在公开市场上按照当前市场价格进行股票回购。在该方式下的股票回购较为灵活，上市公司能够根据自身情况，自由决定回购的时间、回购的数量等因素，而且在这一方式下进行的股票回购不需要支付额外的溢价。另一种较为普遍的股票回购方式是要约回购。上市公司通过要约回购股票的定价方式一般有两种，一是使用固定价格在约定期限内向股东发出要约以购买一定数量的股票，上市公司一般是在短期内需要大量公司股票的情况下选择该种定价方式，但短期内需求的大幅升高会导致回购股票需要支付一定的溢价。要约回购下的另一种定价方式是荷兰式拍卖回购，此种方式将在回购价格方面给予公司更大的灵活性，因此也被广泛采用。在荷兰式拍卖回购中，上市公司制定回购价格的范围和计划回购的数量，随后股东表示在价格区间范围内某一水平下愿意出售的股票数量，最后上市公司将汇总所有股东意愿并按照从低到高价格排序进行股票回购，直至达到上市公司既定的回购数量。与公开市场回购和要约回购相比，协议回购的透明度较低。因为在协议回购方式下，上市公司直接与部分股东进行私下协议，按照协议商定的价格和数量进行股票回购。这种方式在定价、交易时间以及支付方式等方面均较为自由，而且通常来看协议价低于市场价。可转让出售权回购是一种特殊的股票回购的方式，实施股票回购的公司给予股东在一定期限内可以以特定价格向公司出售其股票的权利，而且该权利一旦形成，就可以同依附的股票分离并进行交易。上市公司向其股东发行可转让出授权，不愿意出售股票的股东可以单独出售该权利，以满足各类股东的不同诉求。1.3 为什么要进行股票回购？股份回购能够带来的好处是多方面的。从公司整体来看，不论是使用内部还是外部资金回购股份均可以改善企业的资本结构、并减少对公司管理层的监督及约束成本，使用发债回购股份的方式还能够利用负债的税盾效应实现合理避税，并促使管理层专注于企业的债务偿还以及长期可持续经营。而对于那些在股票回购计划中卖出股票的股东来说，他们可以卖出股票获得流动性，此外与直接派发现金股息相比，由于资本所得一般不征税或税率较低，通过股票回购派发股利的方式能够实现有效的避税。在企业实行回购计划后仍然持有股票的股东同样也能够受益。由于完成股票回购后企业的净资本将明显减少，在其他条件不变的情况下，企业的净资产收益率、每股盈利、以及每股净资产等财务指标都将出现显著的提升。对上市公司股票回购的动机进行分类的话，我们也可以归为以下四个类别，一是财务动因，二是信号传递诉求，三是减少委托代理风险，四是增加公司控制权防止恶意收购。上市公司进行股票回购的财务动因主要与其资本结构以及股利政策相关，上市公司往往出于提高每股盈利、改善资本结构以及增加股东财富效应等与财务相关的原因进行股票回购。具体来看，股票回购对上市公司财务相关因素的改善主要体现在四个方面：第一，提升公司每股盈利。由于回购会减少上市公司在外流通股数量，因此在计算每股盈利时由于分母的减少，将直接带来EPS的上升，这或许也将提高公司股价。第二，实现股利避税，增加上市公司的股东财富。由于现金股利的税率高于资本利得税税率，通过采用股票回购而不是发放股利的方式对股东现金返还能够帮助股东实现合理避税。在中国，个人投资者持股期限在一个月以内的股息红利所得全额计入应纳税所得额，实际税负为20%，但资本利得暂免征收所得税。第三，优化公司资本结构，通过税盾效应提高公司价值。不论以何种方式进行股票回购，都将降低公司的所有者权益，而发债回购甚至还会增加公司的债务，从而提高公司的财务杠杆率，产生杠杆效应。因此对于财务杠杆较低的公司来说，这不仅能够优化公司的资本结构，还能够利用融资利息带来的税盾效应实现公司价值的提升。第四，股票回购具有较高的财务灵活性。上市公司向股东返还现金的方式一般有发放现金股利和股票回购两种方式，但发放现金股利的方式通常会使股东对未来股利形成预期，这就要求公司需要有稳定的现金流。而股票回购是偶尔发生的，上市公司在股票回购方式下能够相对自由地选择回购的金额、数量、时间等，相比于股票回购方式具有很大的财务灵活性。股票回购的信号传递诉求主要是基于信息不对称假设，上市公司通过股票回购能够向市场传递公司股价被低估的信号，因为只有在公司认为自己股票价格被低估的情况下才会进行股票回购。通过这种方式向市场传递积极信号，对公司的短期经营收益具有正面的影响。股票回购还有助于减少委托代理风险。由于上市公司的管理权和所有权分离，而代理人和委托人目标并不完全一致，可能存在委托人无法清楚认识代理人的目标偏失，进而造成委托人利益受损的情况。特别是在公司自由现金流较为充裕的情况，公司管理层可能会出于自身利益而进行过度投资或消费，从而侵占公司股东的利益。这种情况下，公司通过股票回购将现金返还给股东，既提高了现金流的使用效率也能够降低代理成本，减少委托代理风险。通过股票回购增加控制权、防止股权稀释以及恶意收购也是上市公司股票回购的动机之一。上世纪80年代随着美国杠杆并购浪潮的兴起，恶意收购活动也逐渐增加。为了防止公司被恶意收购，上市公司纷纷通过回购股票来达到提高股价、减少在外流通股、抵御敌意收购的目的。虽然现在恶意收购的情况有所减少，但将回购的股票用于管理层的股权激励计划也有助于避免股权稀释。2，股票回购的财务处理问题2.1 股票回购后注销与否的区别对于上市公司来说，在股票回购完成后公司可以将所回购的股票注销，也可以将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。被公司保留的“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票，由公司自己持有，并且可以在适当的时间再向市场出售、发行可转债或者作为对员工的激励等。但“库存股”的特性类似于未发行的股票，“库存股”没有投票权，也不具备分红的权利，甚至在公司破产后也不能变现，因此，“库存股”也不参与每股收益、净资产收益率以及每股净资产等指标的计算。所以在股票回购完成后，不论有没有注销所回购的股票，都不会影响每股收益、每股净资产以及净资产收益率等财务指标，因为即使作为“库存股”保留，这些股票也不会参与这些指标的计算。从这个角度来看，对公司来说，注销和不注销所回购的股票并不会存在较大的差异。但在多数情况下，企业回购股票完成后都会选择将回购的股票作为“库存股”保留。我们统计了标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司股票回购后的处理情况，其中有30家上市公司选择了回购股票并保留了“库存股”，另外20家上市公司选择注销所回购的股票或未进行股票回购。企业之所以倾向于保留“库存股”，主要是因为“库存股”本身能够为企业带来一定的积极意义。一是在融资方面能够为公司提供充足的灵活性，降低融资成本。由于“库存股”仍然属于已发行的股票，公司在存在融资需求时可以出售“库存股”；与配股或者增发新股相比，出售“库存股”获得资金的成本更低，不仅能够节省发行股票相关的监管及中介成本费用，并且可以在市场允许的情况下避免折价发售。二是有利于员工或管理层激励计划等的实施。“库存股”是企业向员工及管理层发放股权激励的重要的股票来源之一，因此对于美股上市公司来说，保留“库存股”能够为其实施股权激励计划等提供便利，避免因缺乏足够的股份来源导致激励计划无法实施的情况。三是为公司并购活动提供便利、防止公司遭受敌意收购。通过库存股换股的方式进行兼并收购能够为公司的并购行为提供一定的灵活性；此外，回购后保留“库存股”行为也能防止公司被恶意收购，一方面回购推升股价导致收购方难度增加，另一方面，“库存股”能够补充公司在外流通的股份数量，为公司应对恶意收购提供缓冲时间。四是有利于股票价格的稳定。当市场出现了非理性的波动时，企业可以通过调节在外流通股票的供给来平抑价格的波动，稳定股价，避免公司因为市场情绪等非理性因素受到较大的影响。2.2 回购如何导致企业净资产为负？股票回购能够带来的好处中，非常重要的一条是，回购股票能够提高EPS和公司整体的ROE，这主要是因为回购股票会减少企业的净资本，分母的明显下降会带来包括EPS以及ROE在内的显著提升。在更为夸张的情况下，部分美股上市公司采取了发债回购的形式回购大量的已发行股份，造成负债总额大于资产总额、而净资产为负值的情况。在这种情况下，ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。那么美国的这些上市公司是如何通过回购使得净资产为负的呢？这背后最主要的原因还是在于财务报表中权益资产账面价值与二级市场中股票市值存在着巨大的差异，二级市场上的股票价格并不会在资产负债表里得到反映，所以股票的账面价值和市场价值是不对等的。企业在进行回购时，主要参考的是股票的市场价值，因此回购股票的成本往往会相对账面价值存在溢价。因此不论是回购后转入库存股、在计算股东权益时作为抵减项，又或是回购后注销时冲减留存收益科目，只要回购股票成本的溢价过大，就会可能导致留存收益科目转负，甚至导致公司整体的净资产也呈现出负值。以星巴克公司为例。星巴克公布的2019财年（从2018年9月30日至2019年9月30日）年度报告中，企业总资产从2018财年的241.6亿美元下降至192.2亿美元，但总负债却从2018财年的229.8亿美元上升至254.5亿美元，这意味着星巴克公司净资产即所有者权益从2018财年的11.8亿美元下降至2019财年的-62.3亿美元。从星巴克公司资产负债表中的股东权益细分科目的情况来看，2019年公司净资产小于0主要的原因是留存收益科目出现了大幅的下降，2018财年星巴克留存收益尚有接近15亿美元的余额，但到了2019财年末，留存收益大幅下降至-57.7亿美元，这直接导致了星巴克的股东权益大幅转负，此后公司的留存收益科目一直维持负值状态。而留存收益为负值的主要原因在于股票回购。以2019财年留存收益首次转负为例，在2019财年期内，星巴克公司进行了大量的股票回购，在外发行的股本数量由2018财年的13.1亿股下降至11.8亿股，总股本减少了10万美元，资本公积减少了6.1亿美元，企业回购股票的溢价部分则冲减了高达95.2亿美元的留存收益。从所有者权益变动情况来看，2019财年星巴克留存收益的增减主要是受到会计政策变更、净利润、股票回购以及现金分红的影响。如果不考虑股票回购的影响，会计政策变更及净利润分别使得留存收益增加4.96亿和35.99亿美元，即使是进行了18亿美元的现金分红，星巴克2019财年的留存收益仍然会较期初有所增加。但在股票回购的影响下，星巴克2019财年的留存收益不仅没有增加，反而大幅减少，甚至出现了大额负值，最终使得净资产小于0。对于回购股票后转入库存股的财务处理，我们可以参考麦当劳公司的案例。早在2016财年，麦当劳公司的净资产便已经小于0；此后，麦当劳仍在不断地发债回购流通股并转入库存股票，导致企业净资产持续下降。截至2019财年末（2019年12月31日），麦当劳公司总资产由上期末的328亿美元上升至475亿美元，同时总负债也由391亿美元大幅上升至557亿美元，因此，麦当劳公司的股东权益从2018年底的-63亿美元下降至了-82亿美元，降至了历史最低。2020及2021财年公司股东权益虽然有所回升，但仍然维持负值。从股东权益的细分项来看，2019年麦当劳公司股东权益持续下降的主要是因为库存股的成本在持续上升。影响股东权益的资本公积、留存收益以及其他综合收益科目2019财年的数值都较2018财年有所上升，股本科目维持不变，仅有备抵项库存股从2018财年的-615亿美元下降至-663亿美元（这意味着购买库存股的成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元），并导致股东权益明显下降。2020及2021财年虽然库存股成本还在持续上升，但由于资本公积及留存收益科目都有显著增加，因此股东权益整体小幅回升。根据所有者权益变动表的情况来看，2019财年，麦当劳公司持续回购了2500万的股票，总的回购成本达到了49.8亿美元；同时使用了420万股库存股完成了股票行权认购计划，转出库存股金额1.8亿美元。因此，截至2019财年末，麦当劳公司回购库存股数量共计9.14亿股，累计回购库存股的总成本从615亿美元上升至663亿美元，并导致股东权益持续下降至-82亿美元。3，股票回购有利于推动股价上涨3.1 回购推动股票价格上涨的主要逻辑回购促进股票价格上涨的机制主要有两个，一是上市公司通过回购股票能够直接增加公司股票的需求来提高股价，这也是股票回购产生影响的一个最直接渠道。事实上，自2008年金融危机以来，上市公司本身便是美股市场中一个非常重要的参与者。根据美联储统计的数据，2009年至2021年期间，权益市场的主要参与者中，ETF基金累计净购买了2.77万亿美元的股票，美国家庭及非营利机构累计净购买了1.17万亿美元，而共同基金以及其他金融机构分别累计净出售了901亿美元和2.27万亿美元的权益资产。非金融企业因回购股票而交易的金额在过去十年里出现了大幅飙升，仅该部分累计交易的金额便达到了近5万亿美元的水平。我们可以假设公司A将回购20%的股份，并模拟其实施股票回购前后的股票价格表现来研究回购的影响。根据财务估值模型，公司市值取决于未来产生的现金流或者净利润等指标，因此股票回购的行为将不会影响公司的总市值。我们假设回购前公司A有200亿股流通股，每股价值10元，总市值为2000亿元；本次A公司将回购20%的股份，回购后还有160亿份股流通在外，由于总市值维持不变为2000亿元，因此每股股票价格将上升至12.5元，即与回购前相比，股价上升了25%。回购推动股价上涨的第二个机制是通过提高上市公司EPS和整体的ROE等财务指标。由于公司A的回购行为不会导致公司净利润出现变化，回购前后净利润均为500亿元，因此在回购后，A公司的EPS将由2.5元上升至3.125元，提升幅度为25%。从股市整体来看也是如此，历史数据显示，标普500指数EPS的走势与标普500指数回购规模的走势保持高度的一致性。从走势来看，2000年以来标普500指数EPS与回购规模的走势大致经历了三个阶段，2000年至2007年，指数EPS缓慢提升，公司回购的规模也在不断提升，指数回购减少的股本数量在持续上升。2008年金融危机时期，EPS出现了大幅下降，公司回购也出现了断崖式的下跌。随着美国经济逐渐恢复，2010年开始标普500指数EPS和回购金额都再次趋势上升，2020年新冠疫情期间两者同步出现了短暂的下降。ROE作为投研体系中重要的财务指标，在公司进行股票回购后也会出现明显提升。以苹果公司为例，其上市公司股票回购在2012年以前基本是没有的，2013年是个转折点，然后回购金额开始大幅飙升。如果单看净利润增速，苹果公司2012财年是417亿美元，2021财年是947亿美元，净利润的年化复合增速只有9.5%。这个增速放到A股市场，完全看不出是一个高科技公司，更像是一个公用事业公司。但通过大量的股票回购，苹果公司的ROE从2013年的30%左右提高到了2021年的150%。到2021财年，苹果公司回购普通股的金额高达860亿美元，几乎可以抵上当年的净利润。股票回购不仅会提升上市公司的ROE，在更为夸张的情况下，甚至会使得公司的ROE转为负值。在A股市场中我们也经常看到ROE为负的公司，这种情况都是上市公司是亏损的，所以净利润（分子）是负的。而美股市场中，有不少公司，是因为回购多了，把净资产（分母）弄成了负的了。这种情况下，ROE、PB这些传统指标全部失效。下面这个表报告了麦当劳公司从2007至2021财年股票回购与ROE变化情况，可以开看到，在2014年以前，公司的ROE大致在35%左右。然后开始了大量回购，2015年ROE到了63%，2016年以后公司的股本为负，使得ROE都是负的了。净资产为负，这在传统意义的教科书上，意味着企业资不抵债，是一个濒临破产的信号，但在当前的美股市场中，很多这类的公司股价却在持续上涨。3.2 股票回购将会推升股价收益率股票收益来自于股息红利和市值变动，市值变动又受到盈利和估值的影响，所以从长期投资的角度来看，股票收益率可以分解为股利回购收益、股票估值和企业盈利这三个部分的影响，其中，股利回购收益在股票总回报中占据着非常重要的地位，在美国的股票市场，股利回购收益甚至可以说是股票资产主要的收益来源。因此，股票回购会对股价收益率产生明显的影响，我们能看到全收益指数和普通指数的缺口会随着回购而增大。自1989年初至今超过30年的投资期内，即使经历了2000年互联网泡沫和2008年金融危机这两次重大的危机，投资美股仍然会带来十分丰厚的回报，而其中，股利收益占据了非常重要的地位，这一点体现在标普500全收益指数和标普500指数长期走势的差距中。标普500全收益指数在标普500指数的基础上进行了调整，将样本股分红计入了指数收益，调整后的标普500全收益指数累计涨幅是接近30倍，而标普500指数涨幅仅为14.2倍。Philip U. Straehl等人（The Long-Run Drivers of Stock Returns: Total Payouts and the Real Economy, Financial Analyst Journal）对1871-2014年期间美国股市长期收益率进行了深入的研究，研究发现，包含公司派发的股息以及回购股票产生的收益在内，股利回购收益能够解释美国股票历史收益率的绝大部分，特别是在1970年股票回购得到快速发展之后，回购对提升股价收益率的影响更为显著。1871年至2014年期间，美股实际收益率（剔除通胀后）约为7%，其中，股息收益率为4.5%，如果考虑公司回购带来的收益，总的股利回购收益率将上升至4.89%，占美股实际收益率的三分之二以上。上述结论在调整美股的研究区间后仍然成立，1901年至2014年期间，美股实际收益率为6.58%，其中来自于股息收益的部分达到了4.29%，加上企业回购部分，总的股利回购收益率达到4.78%；1970年至2014年期间，美股产生的股息收益为3.03%，将企业回购纳入考虑后这一部分收益上升至4.26%，同期美股实际收益率为6.25%。3.3 回购后股票市净率将较市盈率出现显著变化虽然股票回购能够促进股票价格上涨，但并不一定会影响估值。更为准确的说法是，股票回购不会影响市盈率，但是会提高市净率，所以在上市公司大幅回购股票后，我们会看到PB相对于PE出现明显变化。之所以出现这种差异，主要是在于股份回购不会影响公司总市值以及净利润，但是会导致权益减少，这会使得公司在市盈率维持不变的情况下市净率出现明显的上升。我们假设公司A按照市价回购了20%的股份，回购后公司总权益将由2000亿元下降至1600亿元，在公司总市值维持不变的情况下，市净率将由原先的1倍上升至1.25倍，而由于公司净利润未受到影响，市盈率将继续维持在回购前4倍的水平。即使从整个市场角度来看，市盈率和市净率也存在这个关系。我们对标普500指数的市盈率与市净率进行了标准化，从走势来看，随着2010年后标普500指数回购金额的大幅提升，标普500指数的PB上升幅度要明显比PE更大，从2010年初到2022年4月 25日 ，标普500指数的PE大概从19倍上升到了21.3倍，PB从2.0倍上升到了4.3倍。在股票回购下，公司股价出现大幅提升，但市盈率却并未受到影响，所以我们看到目前标普500指数的市盈率为21.3倍，在1991年以来56.9%的历史分位数，远远谈不上高估。这是因为公司的EPS也出现了相应的提升，但事实上，对于公司价值来说，通过股本减少带来的EPS提升并没有为公司创造更多的价值，更大程度上只是数字上的游戏。也正是因为这个原因，如果我们从市净率来看，当前标普500指数市净率为4.3倍，已经达到1991年年初以来88.6%的历史分位点了。4，股票回购的潜在风险4.1 股市回购或将导致市场流动性下降美股过去的十年长牛是二战以来美股历史上持续时间第二长的大牛市，但是却是唯一一次在成交量明显下降背景下走出的牛市行情。从2010年开始，随着指数价格的持续上涨，标普500指数的成交量却逐年下降，2022年3月底标普500指数的成交量仅174亿，已经降至了上世纪90年代末的水平。导致美股出现价升量跌情况的一个重要原因是，上市公司大量回购股票使得市场上的流通股份数越来越少，这也会造成市场流动性的下降。以苹果公司为例，由于2013年以来公司不断加大回购股票的规模，当前市场上流通股数量为163.2亿股，相较于2012年底的峰值水平下降了近40%。当然，被动投资规模的大幅上升也是造成美股成交量大幅下降的重要原因，而美股回购能够强化牛市中被动投资的正反馈逻辑，进一步促进被动投资规模的提升。上市公司回购股票带来股价上升，由于被动投资具有低费率、牛市中长期业绩好于主动型基金等优势，投资者纷纷买入被动型基金，增加的资金流入指数成分股，叠加上市公司持续回购股票，进一步推动股指上涨，资金流入被动投资的规模加大。这一正向反馈模式在过去十年的美股市场中不断持续，所以我们看到，2009年后美股市场中ETF的资产规模出现了大幅提升。而在流动性大幅衰减的情况下，指数上涨的趋势一旦出现了扭转，被动投资的正反馈机制也将立即反转，对市场的下跌形成推波助澜之势。如此大规模资金的涌出很容易造成踩踏事件，大概率将带来非常严重的后果。4.2 回购促使上市公司将财务杠杆用到极致回购本身可以算是公司股利政策的一种，最近几年的变化在于，“发债回购”的方式受到越来越多公司的青睐，这使得上市公司把财务杠杆用到了极致。很多上市公司通过大量回购股份，使得净资产转负、资产负债率上升至100%以上，形成了传统意义上企业财务管理的资不抵债局面。在前面介绍回购涉及的财务原理时举的麦当劳公司是一个例子，公司资产负债率2014年时还只有63%，2018年最高到了119%，近几年仍然超过100%。星巴克公司是另一个例子，2017年时资产负债率还只有62%，2019年最高到了132%，2021年仍有117%。美国上市公司债务杠杆率高得离谱，财务杠杆都用到了极致。仅以下表的标普500成分股为例，资产负债率最高的50家公司，资产负债率都超过了90%。财务杠杆与资产负债率是衡量财务风险的重要指标，也是企业信用评级体系中重要的参考因素。企业财务杠杆与资产负债率的上升必然会带来财务风险的上升，也势必影响企业的信用评级。我们统计了当前美国标普500指数成分股主体公司目前的信用评级情况。数据显示，标普500指数成分股中约八成以上的公司主体信用评级为投资级，有超过10%的企业投资主体信用评级为投机级。此外，值得注意的是，当前投资级主体公司中，绝大部分企业的信用评级是投资级的最低等级，即Baa级，这意味着在外部经济环境出现大幅波动的情况下，大部分企业或许将面临信用评级从投资级降至投机级的风险。如果将公司样本范围缩小至标普500成分股中资产负债率最高的50家公司，可以看到公司信用评级为投机级的数量占比明显上升。穆迪分类评级下，这50家公司中，投机级企业数量占比为23.3%，标普评级分类下为36.2%，均要明显高于全部标普500成分股下的相应分类占比。而同样，在投资级主体公司中，Baa（穆迪投资级最低评级）或者BBB（标普投资级最低评级）占据了绝大的比例。大幅发债回购对企业信用评级的影响是显著的。2015年麦当劳的高级无担保债券穆迪信用评级连续下降两级，主要就是因为其计划通过发债加大发放股息以及股票回购的力度。2015年5月穆迪将麦当劳公司高级无担保债券评级从A2下调至A3，促成此次评级下调的部分原因在于麦当劳计划通过分发股利以及股票回购加速向股东返还80亿至90亿美元。穆迪认为，麦当劳加速股票回购以及高额派发股息的指引是其采取激进财务政策的体现，这将导致债务水平大幅上升。2015年11月，由于麦当劳公司宣布将通过发债提高向股东返还的金额，穆迪再次下调麦当劳企业信用评级至Baa1。此外，2015年标普公司两次下调麦当劳评级，麦当劳长期发行人信用评级从A级下降至A-再降至BBB+级，同年惠誉评级公司将麦当劳长期发行人违约评级从A级直接下调至BBB+级，并在2016年再次下调至BBB级别。星巴克公司的经历也同样如此。2017年11月，穆迪下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至A3级，下调原因是因为星巴克计划在2018至2020年通过分红和股份回购的方式向股东返还150亿美元，返还的资金部分将来源于额外的债务。穆迪认为这将导致债务水平显著上升以及信用指标的实质性恶化，因此下调星巴克公司债券评级。2018年6月，穆迪再次下调星巴克高级无担保债券评级至Baa1级，下调原因在于星巴克决定大幅增加债务以将返还股东金额提高至250亿美元。标普与惠誉评级公司在星巴克公司决定发债回购股份后，同样下调企业评级，星巴克评级从A级下降至BBB+级。当然，债务杠杆率高本身并不是股价下跌的充分条件，但确实也埋下了企业债务违约的隐患，特别是在美联储加息周期中，高财务杠杆带来的信用风险正在持续上升。5，美股回购对A股的经验借鉴和美股市场相比，当前A股上市公司股票回购的规模仍然属于极低水平。截至2022年4月26日，2021财年，美股上市公司用于回购普通股和优先股的金额共计达到了7.37万亿人民币，而同期A股上市公司股票回购金额仅为1211亿元，不足美股的2%。不过从趋势上来看，2018年股票回购新规发布后，A股上市公司回购积极性明显提升，回购规模大幅扩张。2012年全年，A股仅有11家上市公司进行了股票回购，回购金额累计25亿元；2021年全年，A股进行股票回购的上市公司数量已经上升至了994家，全年累计回购金额达到了1211亿元。我们在《A股历次回购热潮的启示》一文中复盘了A股历次回购热潮中上市公司的表现，发现1）低估值公司在回购预案发布后超额收益明显；2）公司回购金额占总市值比例与超额收益正相关；3）公司回购对股价长期存在支撑作用。因此不论是从理论上来看，还是从美股或者A股的历史经验来看，股票回购在一定程度上的确能够对股价形成支撑甚至推动股价上涨。这意味着在相同的盈利状况下，股票回购会对上市公司的股价产生利好。一方面，我们认为，随着未来A股上市公司进行更多的企业回购，公司股价上涨还有潜在空间。另一方面，今年年初以来市场兴起了新一轮股市回购热潮，截至4月15日，上市公司年内已实施的回购金额约272亿元，年内已实施回购的公司数量逾400家，越来越多的上市公司回购一定程度上也凸显了对未来市场的信心。（本报告中所有涉及的个股信息，仅为公开信息汇总，不构成任何盈利预测和投资评级）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013041191,"gmtCreate":1648659023497,"gmtModify":1676534373428,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good points&nbsp;","listText":"Good points&nbsp;","text":"Good points","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013041191","repostId":"1119843668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119843668","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648646522,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119843668?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119843668","media":"TheStreet","summary":"After struggling through nearly all of 2022, Apple stock is suddenly within striking distance of the","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>After struggling through nearly all of 2022, Apple stock is suddenly within striking distance of the $3 trillion market cap. Here’s what could send AAPL past the milestone.</p><p>The 2022 selloff in Apple stock may finally be over. After stringing together 11 consecutive trading days of gains, the Cupertino company’s equity is within striking distance of being valued at $3 trillion once again.</p><p>Below, we discuss how far AAPL currently is from the milestone. We also present the potential near-term catalysts that could take Apple stock to all-time highs very soon.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88d71f381c4db9400d5fc2676750c6db\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"821\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion.</span></p><p><b>AAPL: the road to $3 trillion</b></p><p>I have recently estimated that Apple will likely have 16.4 billion diluted shares outstanding at the end of the current quarter, which is only a couple of days away. This being the case, a share price of $183 would be enough to value AAPL at $3 trillion.</p><p>To get to these levels from the current intraday share price of $178, Apple stock would need to climb a mere 2.8%. For instance, shares jumped 3% on March 15 alone. Therefore, the stock could be only one good day of solid gains away from the key market cap figure.</p><p><b>The key short-term catalysts</b></p><p>It is a near certainty that Apple will only be able to reach a $3 trillion market cap soon if the broad market continues to find support. After entering correction territory earlier in 2022, the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) has been rebounding strongly.</p><p>There are a few factors that could push the entire stock market higher from here:</p><ol><li>The conflict in Ukraine takes a turn for the better (i.e., it head towards resolution);</li><li>Crude oil prices continue to dip from the recent highs;</li><li>Inflation plateaus at around 7% to 9% and begins to moderate;</li><li>The Fed delivers the rate hikes that the market expects — not much more or less;</li><li>The US economy continues to show signs of strength;</li><li>Investors grow more confident that valuations have become attractive.</li></ol><p>A few company-specific catalysts could also play a role here. The most important, by far, is calendar Q1 earnings season, which is set to kick off in only a couple of weeks. Apple’s earnings day is likely four to five weeks away.</p><p>Keep in mind that Apple will start to face eye-popping comps in the current quarter. For instance, iPhone revenue growth this time last year reached an impressive 65%, for a two-year stacked annualized rate of 24%. Can the Cupertino company top that in fiscal 2022?</p><p>Regardless of headline numbers, it will be interesting to hear from CEO Tim Cook and team on a number of topics that could be bullish for AAPL stock. Among them:</p><ol><li>Are the supply chain constraints starting to ease?</li><li>How have consumers received the most recent product launches?</li><li>Is the recent Academy Awards win fueling demand for Apple’s services?</li></ol><p><b>The bad news</b></p><p>Things are definitely starting to look better for Apple stock and its investors. However, the good news (i.e. the recent share price rally) comes alongside bad news for those who chose not to buy AAPL when the price was more attractive, a mere couple of weeks ago.</p><p>I have stated repeatedly that buying Apple stock on the dip has historically proven to be the best decision. Unfortunately, the opportunity that stayed on the table for most of 2022 is no longer.</p><p>At only about 2% to 3% below all-time highs, investors that buy AAPL now must be comfortable with the idea of jumping in near a historical peak.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-30 21:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-one-good-day-away-from-3-trillion><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After struggling through nearly all of 2022, Apple stock is suddenly within striking distance of the $3 trillion market cap. Here’s what could send AAPL past the milestone.The 2022 selloff in Apple ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-one-good-day-away-from-3-trillion\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-one-good-day-away-from-3-trillion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119843668","content_text":"After struggling through nearly all of 2022, Apple stock is suddenly within striking distance of the $3 trillion market cap. Here’s what could send AAPL past the milestone.The 2022 selloff in Apple stock may finally be over. After stringing together 11 consecutive trading days of gains, the Cupertino company’s equity is within striking distance of being valued at $3 trillion once again.Below, we discuss how far AAPL currently is from the milestone. We also present the potential near-term catalysts that could take Apple stock to all-time highs very soon.Figure 1: Apple Stock: One Good Day Away From $3 Trillion.AAPL: the road to $3 trillionI have recently estimated that Apple will likely have 16.4 billion diluted shares outstanding at the end of the current quarter, which is only a couple of days away. This being the case, a share price of $183 would be enough to value AAPL at $3 trillion.To get to these levels from the current intraday share price of $178, Apple stock would need to climb a mere 2.8%. For instance, shares jumped 3% on March 15 alone. Therefore, the stock could be only one good day of solid gains away from the key market cap figure.The key short-term catalystsIt is a near certainty that Apple will only be able to reach a $3 trillion market cap soon if the broad market continues to find support. After entering correction territory earlier in 2022, the S&P 500 (SPY) has been rebounding strongly.There are a few factors that could push the entire stock market higher from here:The conflict in Ukraine takes a turn for the better (i.e., it head towards resolution);Crude oil prices continue to dip from the recent highs;Inflation plateaus at around 7% to 9% and begins to moderate;The Fed delivers the rate hikes that the market expects — not much more or less;The US economy continues to show signs of strength;Investors grow more confident that valuations have become attractive.A few company-specific catalysts could also play a role here. The most important, by far, is calendar Q1 earnings season, which is set to kick off in only a couple of weeks. Apple’s earnings day is likely four to five weeks away.Keep in mind that Apple will start to face eye-popping comps in the current quarter. For instance, iPhone revenue growth this time last year reached an impressive 65%, for a two-year stacked annualized rate of 24%. Can the Cupertino company top that in fiscal 2022?Regardless of headline numbers, it will be interesting to hear from CEO Tim Cook and team on a number of topics that could be bullish for AAPL stock. Among them:Are the supply chain constraints starting to ease?How have consumers received the most recent product launches?Is the recent Academy Awards win fueling demand for Apple’s services?The bad newsThings are definitely starting to look better for Apple stock and its investors. However, the good news (i.e. the recent share price rally) comes alongside bad news for those who chose not to buy AAPL when the price was more attractive, a mere couple of weeks ago.I have stated repeatedly that buying Apple stock on the dip has historically proven to be the best decision. Unfortunately, the opportunity that stayed on the table for most of 2022 is no longer.At only about 2% to 3% below all-time highs, investors that buy AAPL now must be comfortable with the idea of jumping in near a historical peak.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938468703,"gmtCreate":1662650762702,"gmtModify":1676537110544,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"RIP&nbsp;","listText":"RIP&nbsp;","text":"RIP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938468703","repostId":"1193358135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909842462,"gmtCreate":1658853528156,"gmtModify":1676536217858,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909842462","repostId":"1198339027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198339027","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658848376,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198339027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-26 23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Night Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent \"black swans\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198339027","media":"人神共奋","summary":"不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Unpredictable, but copable<b>A small probability event with a high probability?</b></p><p>Every time an investment article writes about \"black swan\", someone always asks, \"Don't be useless, just talk about what black swan events may have occurred in the past two years.\"</p><p>I always regret to tell him: \"<b>The biggest feature of black swan events is unforeseeability</b>, are events that most people didn't expect, events that everyone is worried about, but they are unlikely to become black swan events. \"</p><p>Some people are still unconvinced: \"I understand this. I don't want you to tell you which events are more likely to become black swans as soon as you say it accurately.\"</p><p>Yeah? Small probability events with \"high probability\"? I'm sorry, I'm leaving!</p><p>Since it is unpredictable, what is the significance of discussing the black swan event?</p><p>Taleb, the author of Black Swan, divides black swan events into two types: the first is the black swan phenomenon that people talk about, and the second is the black swan event that no one knows.</p><p><b>As a \"small probability event\", the black swan event itself cannot be predicted or even avoided (i.e. the second type); However, as a \"common phenomenon\" with a high probability (that is, the first one), it can be dealt with and even used for profit.</b></p><p>This is Black Swan Thinking, the 14th article in the series of \"99 Thinking Models\". Let's talk about \"Black Swan Thinking\".</p><p><b>We don't know \"what we don't know\"</b></p><p>The unpredictability of black swans will cause a major cognitive obstacle-<b>We cannot understand its laws from past experience like other knowledge</b>, reflected in three aspects:</p><p><b>First, the black swan event is a small probability event and an event that is easily overlooked by people</b></p><p>This point, as analyzed earlier, people's first impression of small probability random events is: Why should I waste precious energy and resources just for this unlikely thing?</p><p>However, there are many small probability events in life, and not every event has a significant impact. Is this always a rule?</p><p>Unfortunately, there are rules, but they are not credible, which is the second reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Second, past experience is unreliable</b></p><p>Before there is a rear-end collision, you always think that the distance between yourself and the car in front is appropriate enough for you to react, and your basis is precisely that-this distance has never made me rear-end.</p><p><b>The unreliability of experience stems from the unreliability of \"induction\" itself</b>, all our experience, may be \"what the turkey thinks of the farmer before Thanksgiving\", which in turn constitutes the third reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Third, what you don't know is often the most important thing</b></p><p>Suppose a legislator, through relentless efforts, passed a law requiring airlines to install bulletproof doors to pilot cockpits and lock them from the inside (a requirement after 9/11) before September 2001?</p><p>Naturally, then there would be no \"911\". But here's the question. If \"911\" never happened, who would admit the \"contribution\" of this legislator? What is more likely is that airlines increase costs and are hated by employees.</p><p>Summarizing the reasons why \"black swans\" are unavoidable, the author said: \"<b>What we don't know is more important than what we know, which is the real reason why the black swan event appears</b>”。</p><p><b>Small probability events, unreliable experience, and things we don't know</b>, these are the three characteristics of the \"Black Swan\" incident.</p><p>Of course, people always want to take the initiative to control the situation. In the financial field, because the system is too complicated and important, the government has designed many mechanisms to prevent the occurrence of \"black swan\" incidents.</p><p>Take the financial crisis in 2008 as an example. To some extent, the financial crisis in 2008 was not a \"black swan event\". It lasted for a year, and it was a crisis that the whole market was worried about and all parties were fully mobilized, but watched it happen.</p><p>In fact, this makes it better reflect the three characteristics of the \"black swan\" event: \"small probability event, unreliable experience and things we don't know\".</p><p><b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely resolved</b></p><p>In the years before the subprime mortgage crisis, many people issued warnings of abnormal mortgage data in advance, and many smart investors began to trade the crisis in advance (you can read the article \"Only two days are happy in the life of a successful person\"), the most typical of which is the explosion in the circulation of CDS based on various CDOs (for details, see \"Can We Avoid the Next\" Subprime Mortgage Crisis \"?\" Article).</p><p>CDS is equivalent to financial institutions \"buying insurance\" for their subordinated debt. They feel bad in their hearts, but they subjectively feel that the problem is controllable.<b>This seemingly cautious and actually optimistic mood hits the \"unreliable past experience\" characteristic of the black swan event.</b></p><p>A series of events that happened later also seemed to \"verify\" people's experience. The prelude to the subprime mortgage crisis kicked off in April, 2007. New Century Financial Corporation, the second largest subprime mortgage scale, filed for bankruptcy protection, and it was also the first financial institution to fail in the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>At that time, the mortgage crisis was already obvious, and the mortgage default rate exceeded a record 1 million units. However, the stock market only fell slightly to \"show respect\" and continued to hit new highs without looking back.</p><p><b>The truly unpredictable black swan factor in the financial crisis is the government's \"response\" to the crisis-investors all assume that someone is solving the problem, so they think that there is a high probability that it will not trigger a crisis.</b></p><p>In early July, 2007, bond rating agencies felt that \"paper couldn't hold the fire\" and began to downgrade the risk rating of subordinated debt. The market still only fell for one day.</p><p>It was not until late July that the fund products related to subprime loans began to explode that the market realized that the crisis had \"infected\" a large number of financial products from subprime debt, and realized that this was the most serious crisis since 9/11. The market finally had a decent \"plunge\" of more than 10%.</p><p>But the decline stopped in mid-August because the government finally made a move: the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, release liquidity, and inject capital into more financial institutions; The Bush administration provided loan guarantees to borrowers hit by the subprime mortgage crisis; Congress is also considering a new plan to temporarily suspend the tax burden caused by mortgage default on home borrowers; The Treasury Department has set up a $100 billion fund to buy troubled mortgage securities...</p><p>When everyone saw it, all parties took action and policies were released. The economic situation itself was very good, but it was just a credit crisis in some areas. Even if this crisis passed, the stock market not only recovered its lost ground, but also reached a new high in October.</p><p>In fact, from October 2007 to July 2008, on the one hand, the sales of the property market continued to deteriorate, and the subordinated debt and default rate involved rose sharply. The crisis continued to deteriorate in the whole financial system, and subordinated debt-related products exploded one after another, and almost all financial institutions suffered huge losses; But on the other hand, these problems are overshadowed by the escalating capital injection plan of the Federal Reserve and the government's increased economic stimulus package.</p><p>In the contest between the crisis and the response to the crisis, most people still believe in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the government's toolbox, so although the market is slowly declining, it is still supported at a relatively high position.</p><p>Before the real plunge, there were two waves of crises in the market, one was the crisis of Bear Stearns, and the other was the crisis of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Finally, acquisitions and government takeovers pressed the \"pause button\" on the crisis.</p><p>These two actions of \"the magic is one foot high, the road is one foot high\" have given the market an illusion. Now the government's \"financial toolbox\" is very big, and a big financial crisis will not happen. This makes others, including the Federal Reserve and the government, also \"reflect\", are they \"too cautious\" or too wide? People are also complaining that policies waste taxpayers' money.</p><p><b>This \"illusion\" and \"reflection\" just verifies what Taleb said in his book that \"what we don't know is more important than what we know\". As a result, when facing the next object in need of help \"Lehman Brothers\", the Federal Reserve chose another path-let it go bankrupt.</b></p><p>After lurking for nearly a year, this \"black swan\" finally found an opportunity to show its true colors. Before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the market only fell by 15% in one year, and then plummeted by 40% in the next two months. The subprime mortgage crisis immediately turned into a global financial crisis, and the credit of the whole society froze, which spread to the real economy. The unemployment rate hit the highest level since the end of World War II.</p><p>Everyone knows that the best way to deal with this kind of financial crisis is to inject liquidity far beyond the crisis level on a large scale and nip it in the bud. But,<b>If the stock market doesn't \"die for you\", how can Congress pass the 700 billion bailout plan so quickly? How can Wall Street banks accept government capital injections?</b></p><p><b>Everyone knows that the Black Swan event is costly, but everyone questions the necessary sacrifices in advance</b>, take this year's Federal Reserve rate hike as an example. Everyone knows that rate hike was the best way when inflation first started, but if inflation was really beaten down once or twice, most people will begin to question again, how can there be inflation? The Fed is scaring people again.</p><p>This is the fourth feature of the financial \"black swan\" event:<b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely solved.</b></p><p>Therefore, the specific \"black swan event\" itself cannot be predicted and avoided, but there are some basic ways to deal with the \"black swan phenomenon\".</p><p><b>Three ways to deal with a black swan</b></p><p>There are three different attitudes to dealing with black swan events:</p><p><b>The first is Buffett's \"passive exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>The best reflection of Buffett's response to the \"black swan incident\" is his letter to shareholders in 1994:</p><p>\"We will continue to ignore political forecasts and economic forecasts, which are costly pastimes for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one predicted the widespread spread of the Vietnam War, wage and price control, two oil crises, the resignation of the president, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Dow plummeting 508 points in one day, or the yield of short-term government bonds (Treasury Bill) fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. Surprisingly, however, these once sensational major events never made Ben Graham's investment principles flaw in the slightest, nor made any mistakes in buying excellent companies at reasonable prices. Imagine how much it will cost us if we delay or change our allocation and use of funds because of these inexplicable fears. In fact, we usually take advantage of the moment when some major macro event leads to the peak of market pessimism to find the best buying opportunities. \" It seems that Buffett's attitude towards the crisis is the simplest, that is, not to predict the crisis. Once it occurs, he must seize this opportunity and buy a good company.</p><p>This approach seems to be the easiest for ordinary people to learn, but in fact it is not the case. Buffett's main successful investment in the later period made him make a lot of money<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, none of them were bought during the Black Swan incident. On the contrary, they were considered too expensive when they were bought. And his sale in aviation stocks at the \"bottom of the epidemic\" in 2020 was actually based on the experience of the short-term impact of the 9/11 incident on aviation stocks, which was later denied by himself.</p><p><b>Buffett can ignore the \"black swan\", but it is also difficult to take advantage of it, because the impact on stock prices caused by crisis events seems large, but for long-term investments lasting for more than ten years, the impact on final returns is minimal.</b></p><p><b>The second is Taleb's \"active exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>Taleb's attitude is completely opposite to Buffett's.<b>A black swan event is a risk for most people, but if you are on the side of most people's counterparties, it is a \"winning lottery ticket\".</b></p><p>Taleb has many trades based on the black swan theory. He once bought \"$5 sell\" at extremely low prices<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Put options \", when General Motors' stock price was still above $30. For example, when you were in Maotai for 2,000 yuan, you bet with others that Maotai would fall to 300 yuan. It seems like a very stupid transaction, so he can buy it for almost nothing. But by the time of 9/11 incident, these put options didn't look so outrageous, and the price naturally went up. Empirica, the hedge fund he manages, has many similar investments, all of which made a fortune in the 9/11 and 2008 crises.</p><p>But Taleb's method is more difficult to learn. His own evaluation is:</p><p>\"Expecting a black swan event is risky, and you will pay the price of\" bloodshed \". You lose a little every day for a long time until an event happens, which gives you disproportionately high returns. No single event can make you miserable, but on the other hand, certain changes can give you huge returns that can make up for small losses over years, decades or even centuries.\" To reduce the difficulty, Taleb later spread it into<b>The \"barbell strategy\" allocates 90% of assets to Treasury Bond and money funds with almost no risk, and allocates a small part of assets to products similar to the above that can make profits in the \"black swan event\".</b></p><p>(For more about Taleb's investment philosophy, please read today's next article)</p><p><b>The third is Bridgewater Fund's \"all-weather strategy\"</b></p><p>Bridgewater Fund's most famous \"all-weather strategy\" model has two dimensions, \"economic upward and downward\" and \"inflation upward and downward\", which constitute four quadrants and represent large classes of assets with the same risk weight corresponding to the four environments. The portfolio has higher yields while maintaining lower pullback/retracement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9e5cfe7547f9640d2d1316a225a20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Different from the traditional combination idea of \"allocating different assets in different cycles\",<b>The \"all-weather strategy\" uses the above set of strategies to deal with all economic environments-including the extreme situation of black swan crisis, of course.</b></p><p>In order to achieve \"risk parity of all assets\", it is necessary to use high leverage in certain low-risk varieties (such as bonds), which requires Dalio to consider black swan risks in the overall portfolio.<b>For this reason, Dalio studied all the extreme events that have occurred in major economies in the past few hundred years, which obviously conflicts with Taleb's statement that \"past experience is unreliable\".</b></p><p>But in any case, Bridgewater Fund has been safe and sound in the impact of recent financial crises (although his portfolio almost \"exploded\" in the world's first wave of COVID-19 pandemic shocks in 2020), and when there is no crisis, It has also outperformed the market. As for whether it will still be effective in future black swan events, I hope we can know this answer in our lifetime (maybe soon).</p><p>Most of the \"macro hedge strategy funds\" on the market are born out of \"all-weather strategies\", so these products are the easiest way for you to deal with the \"black swan event\" at present-but if you believe in Taleb's philosophy There is no doubt that this kind of product is not necessarily reliable either.</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Key points of black swan thinking:</p><p>1. The unpredictability of the \"black swan\" event stems from its three characteristics: small probability events, unreliable experience and things we don't know;</p><p>2. The fourth characteristic of the financial black swan: only by letting the crisis break out completely can the crisis be completely solved, so the government's response is the biggest black swan;</p><p>3. Black swan is unpredictable, but it can be dealt with. There are three coping attitudes: passive utilization, active utilization, and all-weather strategy;</p><p>Finally, there is the most basic attitude Taleb tells us: you must fall in love with failure, as long as you avoid decisive failure.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1583721040246","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Night Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent \"black swans\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNight Reading | How to invest in the era of frequent \"black swans\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">人神共奋</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-26 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Unpredictable, but copable<b>A small probability event with a high probability?</b></p><p>Every time an investment article writes about \"black swan\", someone always asks, \"Don't be useless, just talk about what black swan events may have occurred in the past two years.\"</p><p>I always regret to tell him: \"<b>The biggest feature of black swan events is unforeseeability</b>, are events that most people didn't expect, events that everyone is worried about, but they are unlikely to become black swan events. \"</p><p>Some people are still unconvinced: \"I understand this. I don't want you to tell you which events are more likely to become black swans as soon as you say it accurately.\"</p><p>Yeah? Small probability events with \"high probability\"? I'm sorry, I'm leaving!</p><p>Since it is unpredictable, what is the significance of discussing the black swan event?</p><p>Taleb, the author of Black Swan, divides black swan events into two types: the first is the black swan phenomenon that people talk about, and the second is the black swan event that no one knows.</p><p><b>As a \"small probability event\", the black swan event itself cannot be predicted or even avoided (i.e. the second type); However, as a \"common phenomenon\" with a high probability (that is, the first one), it can be dealt with and even used for profit.</b></p><p>This is Black Swan Thinking, the 14th article in the series of \"99 Thinking Models\". Let's talk about \"Black Swan Thinking\".</p><p><b>We don't know \"what we don't know\"</b></p><p>The unpredictability of black swans will cause a major cognitive obstacle-<b>We cannot understand its laws from past experience like other knowledge</b>, reflected in three aspects:</p><p><b>First, the black swan event is a small probability event and an event that is easily overlooked by people</b></p><p>This point, as analyzed earlier, people's first impression of small probability random events is: Why should I waste precious energy and resources just for this unlikely thing?</p><p>However, there are many small probability events in life, and not every event has a significant impact. Is this always a rule?</p><p>Unfortunately, there are rules, but they are not credible, which is the second reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Second, past experience is unreliable</b></p><p>Before there is a rear-end collision, you always think that the distance between yourself and the car in front is appropriate enough for you to react, and your basis is precisely that-this distance has never made me rear-end.</p><p><b>The unreliability of experience stems from the unreliability of \"induction\" itself</b>, all our experience, may be \"what the turkey thinks of the farmer before Thanksgiving\", which in turn constitutes the third reason for \"unpredictability\":</p><p><b>Third, what you don't know is often the most important thing</b></p><p>Suppose a legislator, through relentless efforts, passed a law requiring airlines to install bulletproof doors to pilot cockpits and lock them from the inside (a requirement after 9/11) before September 2001?</p><p>Naturally, then there would be no \"911\". But here's the question. If \"911\" never happened, who would admit the \"contribution\" of this legislator? What is more likely is that airlines increase costs and are hated by employees.</p><p>Summarizing the reasons why \"black swans\" are unavoidable, the author said: \"<b>What we don't know is more important than what we know, which is the real reason why the black swan event appears</b>”。</p><p><b>Small probability events, unreliable experience, and things we don't know</b>, these are the three characteristics of the \"Black Swan\" incident.</p><p>Of course, people always want to take the initiative to control the situation. In the financial field, because the system is too complicated and important, the government has designed many mechanisms to prevent the occurrence of \"black swan\" incidents.</p><p>Take the financial crisis in 2008 as an example. To some extent, the financial crisis in 2008 was not a \"black swan event\". It lasted for a year, and it was a crisis that the whole market was worried about and all parties were fully mobilized, but watched it happen.</p><p>In fact, this makes it better reflect the three characteristics of the \"black swan\" event: \"small probability event, unreliable experience and things we don't know\".</p><p><b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely resolved</b></p><p>In the years before the subprime mortgage crisis, many people issued warnings of abnormal mortgage data in advance, and many smart investors began to trade the crisis in advance (you can read the article \"Only two days are happy in the life of a successful person\"), the most typical of which is the explosion in the circulation of CDS based on various CDOs (for details, see \"Can We Avoid the Next\" Subprime Mortgage Crisis \"?\" Article).</p><p>CDS is equivalent to financial institutions \"buying insurance\" for their subordinated debt. They feel bad in their hearts, but they subjectively feel that the problem is controllable.<b>This seemingly cautious and actually optimistic mood hits the \"unreliable past experience\" characteristic of the black swan event.</b></p><p>A series of events that happened later also seemed to \"verify\" people's experience. The prelude to the subprime mortgage crisis kicked off in April, 2007. New Century Financial Corporation, the second largest subprime mortgage scale, filed for bankruptcy protection, and it was also the first financial institution to fail in the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>At that time, the mortgage crisis was already obvious, and the mortgage default rate exceeded a record 1 million units. However, the stock market only fell slightly to \"show respect\" and continued to hit new highs without looking back.</p><p><b>The truly unpredictable black swan factor in the financial crisis is the government's \"response\" to the crisis-investors all assume that someone is solving the problem, so they think that there is a high probability that it will not trigger a crisis.</b></p><p>In early July, 2007, bond rating agencies felt that \"paper couldn't hold the fire\" and began to downgrade the risk rating of subordinated debt. The market still only fell for one day.</p><p>It was not until late July that the fund products related to subprime loans began to explode that the market realized that the crisis had \"infected\" a large number of financial products from subprime debt, and realized that this was the most serious crisis since 9/11. The market finally had a decent \"plunge\" of more than 10%.</p><p>But the decline stopped in mid-August because the government finally made a move: the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, release liquidity, and inject capital into more financial institutions; The Bush administration provided loan guarantees to borrowers hit by the subprime mortgage crisis; Congress is also considering a new plan to temporarily suspend the tax burden caused by mortgage default on home borrowers; The Treasury Department has set up a $100 billion fund to buy troubled mortgage securities...</p><p>When everyone saw it, all parties took action and policies were released. The economic situation itself was very good, but it was just a credit crisis in some areas. Even if this crisis passed, the stock market not only recovered its lost ground, but also reached a new high in October.</p><p>In fact, from October 2007 to July 2008, on the one hand, the sales of the property market continued to deteriorate, and the subordinated debt and default rate involved rose sharply. The crisis continued to deteriorate in the whole financial system, and subordinated debt-related products exploded one after another, and almost all financial institutions suffered huge losses; But on the other hand, these problems are overshadowed by the escalating capital injection plan of the Federal Reserve and the government's increased economic stimulus package.</p><p>In the contest between the crisis and the response to the crisis, most people still believe in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the government's toolbox, so although the market is slowly declining, it is still supported at a relatively high position.</p><p>Before the real plunge, there were two waves of crises in the market, one was the crisis of Bear Stearns, and the other was the crisis of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Finally, acquisitions and government takeovers pressed the \"pause button\" on the crisis.</p><p>These two actions of \"the magic is one foot high, the road is one foot high\" have given the market an illusion. Now the government's \"financial toolbox\" is very big, and a big financial crisis will not happen. This makes others, including the Federal Reserve and the government, also \"reflect\", are they \"too cautious\" or too wide? People are also complaining that policies waste taxpayers' money.</p><p><b>This \"illusion\" and \"reflection\" just verifies what Taleb said in his book that \"what we don't know is more important than what we know\". As a result, when facing the next object in need of help \"Lehman Brothers\", the Federal Reserve chose another path-let it go bankrupt.</b></p><p>After lurking for nearly a year, this \"black swan\" finally found an opportunity to show its true colors. Before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the market only fell by 15% in one year, and then plummeted by 40% in the next two months. The subprime mortgage crisis immediately turned into a global financial crisis, and the credit of the whole society froze, which spread to the real economy. The unemployment rate hit the highest level since the end of World War II.</p><p>Everyone knows that the best way to deal with this kind of financial crisis is to inject liquidity far beyond the crisis level on a large scale and nip it in the bud. But,<b>If the stock market doesn't \"die for you\", how can Congress pass the 700 billion bailout plan so quickly? How can Wall Street banks accept government capital injections?</b></p><p><b>Everyone knows that the Black Swan event is costly, but everyone questions the necessary sacrifices in advance</b>, take this year's Federal Reserve rate hike as an example. Everyone knows that rate hike was the best way when inflation first started, but if inflation was really beaten down once or twice, most people will begin to question again, how can there be inflation? The Fed is scaring people again.</p><p>This is the fourth feature of the financial \"black swan\" event:<b>Only by letting the crisis break out completely can it be completely solved.</b></p><p>Therefore, the specific \"black swan event\" itself cannot be predicted and avoided, but there are some basic ways to deal with the \"black swan phenomenon\".</p><p><b>Three ways to deal with a black swan</b></p><p>There are three different attitudes to dealing with black swan events:</p><p><b>The first is Buffett's \"passive exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>The best reflection of Buffett's response to the \"black swan incident\" is his letter to shareholders in 1994:</p><p>\"We will continue to ignore political forecasts and economic forecasts, which are costly pastimes for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one predicted the widespread spread of the Vietnam War, wage and price control, two oil crises, the resignation of the president, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Dow plummeting 508 points in one day, or the yield of short-term government bonds (Treasury Bill) fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. Surprisingly, however, these once sensational major events never made Ben Graham's investment principles flaw in the slightest, nor made any mistakes in buying excellent companies at reasonable prices. Imagine how much it will cost us if we delay or change our allocation and use of funds because of these inexplicable fears. In fact, we usually take advantage of the moment when some major macro event leads to the peak of market pessimism to find the best buying opportunities. \" It seems that Buffett's attitude towards the crisis is the simplest, that is, not to predict the crisis. Once it occurs, he must seize this opportunity and buy a good company.</p><p>This approach seems to be the easiest for ordinary people to learn, but in fact it is not the case. Buffett's main successful investment in the later period made him make a lot of money<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>, none of them were bought during the Black Swan incident. On the contrary, they were considered too expensive when they were bought. And his sale in aviation stocks at the \"bottom of the epidemic\" in 2020 was actually based on the experience of the short-term impact of the 9/11 incident on aviation stocks, which was later denied by himself.</p><p><b>Buffett can ignore the \"black swan\", but it is also difficult to take advantage of it, because the impact on stock prices caused by crisis events seems large, but for long-term investments lasting for more than ten years, the impact on final returns is minimal.</b></p><p><b>The second is Taleb's \"active exploitation\" attitude</b></p><p>Taleb's attitude is completely opposite to Buffett's.<b>A black swan event is a risk for most people, but if you are on the side of most people's counterparties, it is a \"winning lottery ticket\".</b></p><p>Taleb has many trades based on the black swan theory. He once bought \"$5 sell\" at extremely low prices<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>Put options \", when General Motors' stock price was still above $30. For example, when you were in Maotai for 2,000 yuan, you bet with others that Maotai would fall to 300 yuan. It seems like a very stupid transaction, so he can buy it for almost nothing. But by the time of 9/11 incident, these put options didn't look so outrageous, and the price naturally went up. Empirica, the hedge fund he manages, has many similar investments, all of which made a fortune in the 9/11 and 2008 crises.</p><p>But Taleb's method is more difficult to learn. His own evaluation is:</p><p>\"Expecting a black swan event is risky, and you will pay the price of\" bloodshed \". You lose a little every day for a long time until an event happens, which gives you disproportionately high returns. No single event can make you miserable, but on the other hand, certain changes can give you huge returns that can make up for small losses over years, decades or even centuries.\" To reduce the difficulty, Taleb later spread it into<b>The \"barbell strategy\" allocates 90% of assets to Treasury Bond and money funds with almost no risk, and allocates a small part of assets to products similar to the above that can make profits in the \"black swan event\".</b></p><p>(For more about Taleb's investment philosophy, please read today's next article)</p><p><b>The third is Bridgewater Fund's \"all-weather strategy\"</b></p><p>Bridgewater Fund's most famous \"all-weather strategy\" model has two dimensions, \"economic upward and downward\" and \"inflation upward and downward\", which constitute four quadrants and represent large classes of assets with the same risk weight corresponding to the four environments. The portfolio has higher yields while maintaining lower pullback/retracement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e9e5cfe7547f9640d2d1316a225a20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Different from the traditional combination idea of \"allocating different assets in different cycles\",<b>The \"all-weather strategy\" uses the above set of strategies to deal with all economic environments-including the extreme situation of black swan crisis, of course.</b></p><p>In order to achieve \"risk parity of all assets\", it is necessary to use high leverage in certain low-risk varieties (such as bonds), which requires Dalio to consider black swan risks in the overall portfolio.<b>For this reason, Dalio studied all the extreme events that have occurred in major economies in the past few hundred years, which obviously conflicts with Taleb's statement that \"past experience is unreliable\".</b></p><p>But in any case, Bridgewater Fund has been safe and sound in the impact of recent financial crises (although his portfolio almost \"exploded\" in the world's first wave of COVID-19 pandemic shocks in 2020), and when there is no crisis, It has also outperformed the market. As for whether it will still be effective in future black swan events, I hope we can know this answer in our lifetime (maybe soon).</p><p>Most of the \"macro hedge strategy funds\" on the market are born out of \"all-weather strategies\", so these products are the easiest way for you to deal with the \"black swan event\" at present-but if you believe in Taleb's philosophy There is no doubt that this kind of product is not necessarily reliable either.</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Key points of black swan thinking:</p><p>1. The unpredictability of the \"black swan\" event stems from its three characteristics: small probability events, unreliable experience and things we don't know;</p><p>2. The fourth characteristic of the financial black swan: only by letting the crisis break out completely can the crisis be completely solved, so the government's response is the biggest black swan;</p><p>3. Black swan is unpredictable, but it can be dealt with. There are three coping attitudes: passive utilization, active utilization, and all-weather strategy;</p><p>Finally, there is the most basic attitude Taleb tells us: you must fall in love with failure, as long as you avoid decisive failure.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd\">人神共奋</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe8ba21c8b5ac2b562fdf822ed7fcb2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg5NDMyMDk2OQ==&mid=2247492953&idx=1&sn=31b517970dcae7fe59488173dfe89b2a&chksm=c023cd7ff7544469ce827bf974b8cfbc17e091d684708accf6f49b92b0f5201d1dbc26852f7c#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198339027","content_text":"不可预测，但可应对可能性大的小概率事件？每次投资类的文章写到“黑天鹅”，总有人反问：“别整那没用的，你就说说这两年可能有什么黑天鹅事件。”我总是很遗憾的告诉他：“黑天鹅事件最大的特点是不可预见，都是大部分人没有想到的事件，大家都在担心的事件，反而不太可能成为黑天鹅事件。”总有人还是不服气：“这个我懂，不是让你一说一个准，你就说说哪些事件变黑天鹅的可能性比较大呗。”嗯？“可能性大”的小概率事件？对不住，告辞了！既然无法预测，那讨论黑天鹅事件的意义何在呢？《黑天鹅》一书的作者塔勒布把黑天鹅事件分为两种：第一种是人们谈到的黑天鹅现象，第二种是无人知晓的黑天鹅事件。黑天鹅事件作为一个“小概率事件”本身无法预测，甚至无法回避（即第二种）；但作为一种大概率出现的“普遍现象”（即第一种），却可以应对，甚至利用它来获利。这就是黑天鹅思维，“99种思维模型”系列的第14篇，就来聊一聊“黑天鹅思维”。我们不知道“我们不知道什么”黑天鹅的不可预测性，会造成一个认知上的重大障碍——我们无法像其他知识一样，从过去的经验中理解它的规律，体现在三个方面：第一、黑天鹅事件是小概率事件，也是容易被人们忽略的事件这一点，前面已经分析过了，小概率的随机事件，人们的第一印象就是：为什么要我浪费宝贵的精力和资源，只为了这种不太可能发生的事？不过，生活中的小概率事件很多，并不是每一件都有重大影响，这总有规律吧？非常遗憾，规律是有，但它们并不可信，这就是“不可预测性”的第二个原因：第二、过去的经验不可靠在没有发生追尾事故之前，你总是认为自己与前车的距离是合适的，足以让你作出反应，而你的依据恰恰是——这个车距从来没有让我追尾过。经验的不可靠，源于“归纳法”本身的不可靠，我们的所有经验，都可能是“感恩节前的火鸡对农场主的看法”，而这又构成了“不可预测性”的第三个原因：第三、不知道的事，往往才是最重要的事假设有一位立法者通过不懈的努力，在2001年9月之前，通过了一项法律，要求航空公司必须为飞行员驾驶舱安装防弹门并从内面上锁（这是911后的要求），结果会怎样呢？自然，那就没有“911”了。可问题来了，如果“911”从没有发生过，这位立法者的“贡献”谁会去承认呢？更有可能的是让航空公司增加了成本而被从业人员憎恨。作者总结“黑天鹅”无法避免的原因时说：“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要，这才是黑天鹅事件出现的真正原因”。小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事，这是“黑天鹅”事件的三个特点。当然，人总是希望主动控制局面，在金融领域，由于系统过于复杂，且事关重大，政府设计很多的机制去防止“黑天鹅”事件的发生。以2008年的金融危机为例，从某种程度上说，2008年的金融危机不算是“黑天鹅事件”，它的发生持续了一年，是一件全市场都在担心、各方全面动员，却眼睁睁的看着它发生的危机。事实，这让它更能体现“黑天鹅”事件的“小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事”这三个特点。只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决在次贷危机发生前的几年，就有很多人提前发出房贷数据不正常的警告，很多机灵的投资者就开始提前交易危机（可以看一看文章《成功者的一生，只有两天是开心的》），最典型的就是基于各种CDO的CDS的发行量爆增（详情见《我们能够避免下一次“次贷危机”吗？》一文）。CDS相当于金融机构为自己持有的次级债“买保险”，他们心中大感不妙，但又主观地觉得问题可控，这种看似谨慎、实际乐观的情绪，击中了黑天鹅事件“过去的经验不可靠”的特点。后来发生的一系列事件，也似乎“验证”了人们的经验。次贷危机的序幕于2007年4月拉开，次级贷规模排名第二的新世纪金融公司申请破产保护，也是第一家在次贷危机中倒闭的金融机构。当时的房贷危机已经很明显了，房贷违约率突破创纪录的100万套，但股市只是稍微跌了一下“以表敬意”，就头也不回地继续创新高了。金融危机里真正不可预测的黑天鹅因素，就是政府对危机的“应对”——投资者们都假设有人正在解决问题，从而认为大概率不会引发危机。到了2007年的7月份上旬，债券评级机构觉得“纸包不住火”，开始下调次级债的风险评级，市场还是只跌了一天。直到7月下旬，次级贷的相关基金产品开始爆雷，市场才意识到危机已经从次级债“传染”至大量的金融产品，意识到这是911之后最严重的一次危机，市场终于有了一波超过10%的像样的“暴跌”。但跌势到了8月中旬就止住了，原因在于政府终于出手了：美联储开始降息，释放流动性，并向更多金融机构注资；布什政府向受到次贷危机冲击的借款人提供贷款担保；国会也在审议新方案，暂时中止房屋借款人因按揭还款违约而形成的税收负担；财政部成立一支价值1000亿美元的基金，用以购买陷入困境的抵押证券……大家一看，各方都行动起来了，政策也出了，经济形势本身就是一片大好，只是局部领域的信用危机，这危机就算是过去了，结果股市不但收复了失地，还于10月再创新高。实际上，从2007年10月到2008年7月的大半年的时间里，一方面是楼市销售继续恶化，涉及的次级债和违约率急剧上升，危机仍然在整个金融系统继续恶化，次级债相关产品纷纷爆雷，金融机构几乎都落得巨额亏损；但另一方面，这些问题都被美联储不断升级的注资计划和政府加大的一揽子经济刺激法案所掩盖了。危机与应对危机的较量中，大部分人还是相信美联储的货币政策和政府的工具箱，所以市场虽然缓缓下跌，但仍然在一个比较高的位置上获得支撑。在真正的暴跌到来前，市场出现过两波危机，一波是贝尔斯登的危机，一波是房地美和房利美的危机，最终都以收购和政府接管给危机按下“暂停键”。这两次“魔高一尺，道高一丈”的行动，给市场一个错觉，现在政府的“金融工具箱”很大，大的金融危机不会发生，这就使得另一些人，包括美联储和政府也在“反思”，自己是不是“过于谨慎”了，是不是管得太宽了？民众也在抱怨政策浪费纳税人的钱。这种“错觉”和“反思”，恰恰验证了塔勒布书中所说的“我们所不知道的事，比我们所知道的事更重要”，结果就是在面对下一个需要求助的对象“雷曼兄弟”时，美联储选择了另一条道路——任其破产。这只“黑天鹅”在潜伏了近一年后，终于找到机会露出了真面目，雷曼兄弟破产事件之前，市场一年才跌了15%，之后的两个月就暴跌了40%。次贷危机立刻演变成全球的金融危机，全社会信用冻结，并波及实体经济，失业率创下二战结束以来的最高水平。人人都知道，应对这一类金融危机，最好的方法就是大规模注入远超危机程度的流动性，扼杀在萌芽状态。可是，如果股市不“死给你看”，国会怎么可能这么快通过7000亿的救市计划？华尔街各大银行怎么可能接受政府注资？人人都知道黑天鹅事件损失巨大，但人人都会事先质疑为此作出的必要的牺牲，以今年的美联储加息为例，谁都知道通胀刚起来时加息是最好的方法，但如果真的一两次加息就把通胀打下去，大部分人又开始质疑，哪有什么通胀？美联储又在吓唬人。这就是金融“黑天鹅”事件的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能被彻底解决。所以说，具体“黑天鹅事件”本身是无法预测和避免的，但对于“黑天鹅现象”，却有一些基本的应对方法。应对黑天鹅的三种方法应对黑天鹅事件有三种不同的态度：第一种是巴菲特的“被动利用”的态度最能体现巴菲特对“黑天鹅事件”的应对态度的是他在1994年致股东的信：“我们将继续对政治预测和经济预测置之不理，这些东西对许多投资者和商人来说是代价高昂的消遣。30年前，谁也没有预测到越南战争的大面积扩散、工资与物价控制、两次石油危机、总统辞职、苏联解体、道指在一天内大跌508点，或是短期政府债券（Treasury Bill）的收益率在2.8%～17.4%之间波动。不过令人惊讶的是，这些曾经轰动一时的重大事件却从未让本·格雷厄姆的投资原则出现丝毫的瑕疵，也从没有让以合理的价格买进优秀的企业出现什么失误。想象一下，若是我们因为这些莫名的恐惧而延迟或改变我们对资金的配置使用，将会使我们付出多少代价。事实上，我们通常都是利用某些重大宏观事件导致市场悲观气氛到达顶点的时机，才找到最好的买入机会。”看上去，巴菲特应对危机的态度最简单，就是不要预测危机，一旦出现了，就要抓住这个机会，大买特买好公司。这种做法看上去普通人最容易学，但实际上并不是那么回事，巴菲特后期主要的成功投资，让他赚大钱的苹果、可口可乐，都不是在黑天鹅事件中买的，相反，买的时候都被人们认为太贵了。而他在2020年“疫情底”出手航空股，实际上是基于911事件对航空股短暂冲击的经验，后来被自己否定了。巴菲特可以无视“黑天鹅”，但也很难利用，因为危机事件造成的股价冲击看起来大，但对于长达十几年的长线投资而言，对最终收益的影响微乎其微。第二是塔勒布的“主动利用”的态度塔勒布的态度与巴菲特完全相反，黑天鹅事件对于大部分人来说都是风险，但如果你站在大部分人的交易对手那一边，那就是一张“中奖彩票”。塔勒布有很多基于黑天鹅理论的交易，他曾经以极低的价格买入“5美元卖出通用汽车的看跌期权”，那时通用汽车的股价还在30美元以上。好比你在茅台2000元的时候，跟别人打赌茅台会跌到300元，看起来是一笔很愚蠢的交易，所以他才能以几乎不要钱的价格买到。但到了911事件时，这些看跌期权看上去也没那么离谱，价格自然涨上去。他管理的对冲基金Empirica有很多类似的投资，都在911、2008年的危机中大赚一笔。但塔勒布的方法更难学，他自己的评价是：“期待黑天鹅事件的发生充满风险，你将会付出“流血”的代价。你在很长一段时间里每天损失一点点，直到某个事件发生，这使你获得不成比例的高回报。没有哪个单独的事件能够使你惨败，另一方面，某些变化却能够为你带来足以弥补几年、几十年甚至几百年的小损失的巨大回报。”为了降低难度，塔勒布后来在《反脆弱》一书中，将其扩散成“杠铃策略”，将90%的资产配置于几乎没有什么风险的国债、货币基金上，小部分资产配置于类似上面这些可以在“黑天鹅事件”中获利的产品上。（更多塔勒布的投资理念，可以看今天的次条文章）第三种是桥水基金的“全天候策略”桥水基金最著名的“全天候策略”模型有两个维度，“经济上行与下行”，“通胀上行与下行”，构成四个象限，代表四种环境对应的相同风险权重的大类资产，使组合具有更高收益率的同时保持更低的回撤。与“不同周期配不同资产”的传统组合思路不同，“全天候策略”用了上面的一套策略应对所有的经济环境——当然也就包括了黑天鹅危机这种极端情况。为了达到“所有资产的风险平价”，需要在某些低风险的品种（比如债券）中运用高杠杆，这就要求达利欧把黑天鹅风险也纳入整体组合来考虑。达利欧为此研究了主要经济体过去几百年发生过的所有极端事件，这显然与塔勒布的“过去的经验不可靠”的说法冲突。但不管怎么说，桥水基金在最近几个金融危机的冲击中都安然无恙（虽然他的组合在2020年的全球第一波新冠疫情冲击中，差点“爆雷”），在没有危机的时候，也都跑赢了市场，至于在未来的黑天鹅事件中会不会依然有效，希望有生之年我们可以知道这个答案（说不定快了）。市面上大部分“宏观对冲策略基金”都是脱胎于“全天候策略”，所以这类产品是你应对“黑天鹅事件”目前最简单的方法——但如果你对塔勒布的理念深信不疑，这一类产品也不见得可靠。总结黑天鹅思维的要点 ：1、“黑天鹅”事件的不可预测性，源于它的三个特点：小概率事件、经验不可靠和我们不知道的事；2、金融黑天鹅的第四个特点：只有让危机彻底爆发，才能彻底解决危机，所以政府的应对是最大的黑天鹅；3、黑天鹅不可预测，但可应对，有三种应对态度：被动利用，主动利用，全天候策略；最后，还有一个塔勒布告诉我们的最基本的态度：你必须爱上失败，只要避免决定性的失败。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059077965,"gmtCreate":1654270945157,"gmtModify":1676535423460,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059077965","repostId":"2240267835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2240267835","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654270459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2240267835?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-03 23:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240267835","media":"金融界","summary":"JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>JPMorgan released its monthly list of analysts' top stock picks, which also added a new stock.</p><p>Auto auction platform ACV Auctions was named to the list as a growth stock. JPMorgan doesn't list any stocks to remove from the list, which is compiled monthly by analysts based on their best stock picks.</p><p>All stocks on the bank's \"Analyst Watch List\" have an Overweight rating and are recommended for growth or value strategies, except for one stock pick in the short term:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC). Analyst Vivek Juneja is bullish on Bank of America because the bank is very sensitive to rising interest rates.</p><p>Here are JPMorgan's top ten stock picks for June:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3483ba35883643fbae0eb07f156b99da\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Newly selected ACV Auctions is down more than 50% this year, but analyst Rajat GuPTA said the company's appeal lies in its strong balance sheet and the fact that although the company's earnings outlook is less uncertain, it also follows other tech stocks. The fact that stocks all fell.</p><p>Popular among Wall Street analysts this week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Also on the list. JPMorgan has a $4,000 price target on the stock, implying more than 66% upside from its closing price on Tuesday.</p><p>In this list, the medical sector basically has more stocks on the list than other sectors, except for the consumer sector, which is comparable to it. Growth stock pick Eli Lilly, the largest healthcare stock by market capitalization, has risen 13% this year, while JPMorgan analysts see 8% upside potential.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLAY\">Relay Therapeutics</a>Is another selected healthcare stock and value stock. JPMorgan has given a price target of $47, implying an upside of 188% for the stock.</p><p>In addition, other stocks on the list also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYW\">Signature Bank</a>, McDonald's, Honeywell, Alleghany Technologies and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>。</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to invest in U.S. stocks in June? JPMorgan's latest gold stock list released\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金融界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-03 23:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>JPMorgan released its monthly list of analysts' top stock picks, which also added a new stock.</p><p>Auto auction platform ACV Auctions was named to the list as a growth stock. JPMorgan doesn't list any stocks to remove from the list, which is compiled monthly by analysts based on their best stock picks.</p><p>All stocks on the bank's \"Analyst Watch List\" have an Overweight rating and are recommended for growth or value strategies, except for one stock pick in the short term:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC). Analyst Vivek Juneja is bullish on Bank of America because the bank is very sensitive to rising interest rates.</p><p>Here are JPMorgan's top ten stock picks for June:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3483ba35883643fbae0eb07f156b99da\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Newly selected ACV Auctions is down more than 50% this year, but analyst Rajat GuPTA said the company's appeal lies in its strong balance sheet and the fact that although the company's earnings outlook is less uncertain, it also follows other tech stocks. The fact that stocks all fell.</p><p>Popular among Wall Street analysts this week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Also on the list. JPMorgan has a $4,000 price target on the stock, implying more than 66% upside from its closing price on Tuesday.</p><p>In this list, the medical sector basically has more stocks on the list than other sectors, except for the consumer sector, which is comparable to it. Growth stock pick Eli Lilly, the largest healthcare stock by market capitalization, has risen 13% this year, while JPMorgan analysts see 8% upside potential.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLAY\">Relay Therapeutics</a>Is another selected healthcare stock and value stock. JPMorgan has given a price target of $47, implying an upside of 188% for the stock.</p><p>In addition, other stocks on the list also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYW\">Signature Bank</a>, McDonald's, Honeywell, Alleghany Technologies and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>。</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml\">金融界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","ACVA":"ACV Auctions Inc."},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/06/03052036702421.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240267835","content_text":"JPMorgan发布了其月度分析师最佳选股名单，其中还新添了一支股票。汽车拍卖平台ACV Auctions作为成长股而被入选该名单。JPMorgan没有列出任何从名单中剔除的股票，而该名单是由分析师每月根据其最佳选股编制而成的。该行“分析师关注名单”中的所有股票都获得了增持评级，都因成长或价值策略而被推荐，但只有短期内的一支选股除外：美国银行（BAC）。分析师Vivek Juneja看好美银，是因这家银行对利率上升非常敏感。以下就是JPMorgan六月份的十大最佳选股：新入选股ACV Auctions今年下跌了逾50%，但分析师Rajat GuPTA表示，该公司的吸引力在于其强劲的资产负债表，以及尽管该公司的盈利前景没那么不确定，但也随其他科技股齐跌的这一事实。本周在华尔街分析师中颇受欢迎的亚马逊也榜上有名。JPMorgan对该股的目标价为4000美元，这意味着该股较其周二收盘价还有超66%的上涨空间。在此名单中，医疗板块上榜的股票基本上比其他板块都多，除了与之旗鼓相当的消费板块。成长型选股Eli Lilly则是市值最大的医疗保健股，今年已上涨13%，而JPMorgan分析师认为还有8%的上涨潜力。Relay Therapeutics是另一支入选的医疗保健股和价值股，JPMorgan给予的目标价为47美元，意味着该股的上涨空间达188%。此外，其他上榜的股票还包括了Signature Bank、McDonald’s、Honeywell、Alleghany Technologies和Workday。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":1,"ACVA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026550251,"gmtCreate":1653403826473,"gmtModify":1676535275718,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Thanks for sharing&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026550251","repostId":"1194936946","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9065859253,"gmtCreate":1652175000072,"gmtModify":1676535045873,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What's wrong?","listText":"What's wrong?","text":"What's wrong?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9065859253","repostId":"1194150041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194150041","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652174263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194150041?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-10 17:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla recalls vehicles again, totaling 129,960 vehicles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194150041","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月10日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局：特斯拉正在召回某些运行某些固件版本的2021-2022款Model S、Model X，2022款Model 3和Model Y，共计129,960辆。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>May 10, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Tesla is recalling certain 2021-2022 Model S, Model X, 2022 Model 3 and Model Y running certain firmware versions, totaling 129,960 vehicles.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla recalls vehicles again, totaling 129,960 vehicles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla recalls vehicles again, totaling 129,960 vehicles\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-10 17:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>May 10, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Tesla is recalling certain 2021-2022 Model S, Model X, 2022 Model 3 and Model Y running certain firmware versions, totaling 129,960 vehicles.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b3bf71a5b88b7052f7881987e62de7","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194150041","content_text":"5月10日，美国国家公路交通安全管理局：特斯拉正在召回某些运行某些固件版本的2021-2022款Model S、Model X，2022款Model 3和Model Y，共计129,960辆。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062728915,"gmtCreate":1652109511637,"gmtModify":1676535031492,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OMG","listText":"OMG","text":"OMG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062728915","repostId":"1104099384","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104099384","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652102839,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104099384?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-09 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104099384","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter result","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.</p><p>Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce40b8beee219eb6a82abb7274b16d6\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.</p><p>For the March quarter, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir </a> posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.</p><p>On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.</p><p>The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.</p><p>For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.</p><p>Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-09 21:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.</p><p>Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce40b8beee219eb6a82abb7274b16d6\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.</p><p>For the March quarter, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir </a> posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.</p><p>On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.</p><p>The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.</p><p>For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.</p><p>Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104099384","content_text":"Palantir Stock Plunged 20% in Morning Trading.Palantir Technologies posted soft first-quarter results, along with June quarter guidance that fell shy of previous Wall Street forecasts.Global economic and geopolitical forces appeared to be weighing on the company’s near-term outlook, although Palantir’s long-established ties to U.S. government defense and intelligence agencies could be an advantage in a world rife with geopolitical conflict.For the March quarter, Palantir  posted revenue of $446.4 million, up 31% from a year ago,a smidge shy of the company’s guidance of $447 million, but above the Wall Street consensus at $443 million.On an adjusted basis, the data analytics company earned 2 cents a share in the quarter, 2 cents short of the Wall Street consensus. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company lost 5 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $121.7 million, up 27%. Adjusted operating margin was 26%, three points better than the company had forecast.The company said commercial revenue was $205 million, up 54% in the quarter, including 136% growth from U.S. customers, ahead of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $193 million. Government revenue grew 16% to $242 million, missing analysts’ forecasts of $251 million. Customer count rose 86% from a year ago, the company said.For the second quarter ending in June, Palantir guided to a “base case” of $470 million in revenue, while noting that there was “a wide range of potential upside to our guidance, including those driven by our role in responding to developing geopolitical events.” Previous consensus called for $484 million in second-quarter revenue.Palantir repeated a previous forecast for 27% adjusted operating margins for the full year, and likewise reiterated its long-term forecast for annual revenue growth of 30% or better through 2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087823438,"gmtCreate":1650987645251,"gmtModify":1676534828743,"author":{"id":"4094645548234760","authorId":"4094645548234760","name":"Jesscy","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f833a235aa6dec073e4b8e10b1443","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094645548234760","authorIdStr":"4094645548234760"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great news!","listText":"Great news!","text":"Great news!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087823438","repostId":"1163621399","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163621399","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650952512,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163621399?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-26 13:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Undervalued Growth Stocks to Buy for Q2","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163621399","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Etsy: Valuation looks attractive after a deep correction. Healthy growth in GMS volume and active bu","content":"<div>\n<p>Etsy: Valuation looks attractive after a deep correction. Healthy growth in GMS volume and active buyers on the platform.XPeng: Correction on near-term headwinds provides a good accumulation ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/04/7-undervalued-growth-stocks-to-buy-for-q2/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Undervalued Growth Stocks to Buy for Q2</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Undervalued Growth Stocks to Buy for Q2\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-26 13:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/04/7-undervalued-growth-stocks-to-buy-for-q2/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Etsy: Valuation looks attractive after a deep correction. Healthy growth in GMS volume and active buyers on the platform.XPeng: Correction on near-term headwinds provides a good accumulation ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/04/7-undervalued-growth-stocks-to-buy-for-q2/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","SE":"Sea Ltd","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/04/7-undervalued-growth-stocks-to-buy-for-q2/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163621399","content_text":"Etsy: Valuation looks attractive after a deep correction. Healthy growth in GMS volume and active buyers on the platform.XPeng: Correction on near-term headwinds provides a good accumulation opportunity. Healthy deliveries growth on the back of new model launches coupled with international expansion.Roblox: Looks attractive as one of the best metaverse plays. Growth decelerating on a relative basis has triggered market overreaction.Riot Blockchain: Tripling of mining capacity in the next few quarters would imply robust revenue and EBITDA growth. Returns can be multi-fold if Bitcoin trends higher.Teladoc: Slowdown post-pandemic in virtual healthcare is a concern. However, telehealth has a big addressable market and the stock has discounted relatively lower growth as the new normal.DraftKings: Big market potential for online sports betting and iGaming in the U.S. Cash burn remains a concern even as growth is robust. However, correction has been steep and the stock seems poised for a reversal.Sea Limited: Remains an attractive e-commerce play for exposure to the high-growth Southeast Asian market. Current levels are attractive for fresh exposure.Even after some correction, the S&P 500 index still trades at a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings-ratio of 36.3. However, this does not imply that there are no undervalued stocks to buy. Investors can still use the bottom-up approach to pick value stocks.Policymakers reacted to the pandemic induced recession with ultra-expansionary monetary policies. This translated into one of the best phases for high-growth stocks with multi-fold returns in dozens of names.Things seem to have changed in the last few months. There have been multiple concerns for the markets, which has impacted growth stocks. These concerns include inflation, possibility of multiple rate hikes and growth deceleration for some sectors in a post-pandemic scenario. Additionally, there are concerns related to a possible recession in the U.S. in 2023.With the markets discounting these factors, there has been an over-reaction in several high-growth stocks. This does not come as a surprise for high-beta names.While it’s important to remain cautious, I would consider gradual exposure to some undervalued stocks. In particular, stocks of companies that have a robust business model and have been a victim of market over-reaction.Let’s talk about seven undervalued stocks to buy for the medium to long-term.EtsySource: Sergei Elagin / ShutterstockIn November 2021, Etsy stock had touched highs of $307.8. Growth concerns related to the company’s post-pandemic performance has translate into a deep correction. At levels of $98 and at a forward price-to-earnings-ratio of 30.2, ETSY stock is among the undervalued stocks to buy.For 2021, Etsy reported revenue growth of 35% on a year-on-year basis to $2.3 billion. For the same period, the company reported adjusted EBITDA growth of 30.5% to $717 million. However, for Q1 2022, the company’s top-line growth will remain subdued on a y-o-y basis. I believe that this factor is already discounted in the stock.It’s worth noting that there has been a sustained growth in the number of active buyers and seller son the company’s platform. Further, the percentage of non-U.S. gross merchandise sale has been increasing. With a global addressable market, Etsy has ample scope for growth. These are positive metrics from a long-term perspective.For 2021, the company’s 35% revenue growth was driven by GMS volume, Etsy ads and the positive impact of acquisitions. As the number of buyers and sellers swell, Etsy ads growth is likely to sustain. As of December 2021, Etsy reported cash and equivalents of $985 million. The company also generated operating cash flow of $652 million for 2021. Therefore, there is ample financial flexibility to pursue aggressive organic and inorganic growth.XPengSource: Andy Feng / Shutterstock.comEven with sectors that have multi-year tailwinds, there can be a case for near-term challenges. This holds true for the electric vehicle segment. Factors such as chip shortage and raw-material price escalation have impacted sentiments.These near-term headwinds provide a good entry opportunity into quality EV stocks. XPeng would be in my list of undervalued stocks to buy from the Chinese EV segment. After a downside of 20% in the last 12-months, the stock seems attractive for the long-term.For Q1 2022, XPeng reported159% increase in vehicle deliveries on a year-on-year basis to 34,561. The positive impact of P5 sedan, which was launched in October 2021, is likely to be seen through 2022. Furthermore, XPeng will commence commercial deliveries of G9 SUVin Q3 2022. This will also boost deliveries growth.XPeng is also making inroads into the international markets with focus on Europe. With cash and equivalents of $6.8 billion as of December 2021, the company is positioned for aggressive international expansion.It’s also important to mention that with operating leverage, XPeng is positioned forgradual improvement in vehicle margin. Once cash flows accelerate, XPEV stock will be positioned for meaningful upside.RobloxSource: Michael Vi / Shutterstock.comFrom highs of $141.6, the decline for Roblox stock has been unabated. At current levels of $34, I would consider exposure to this undervalued growth stock.Recently, Goldman downgraded RBLX stock to neutral rating with expectations of a post-pandemic slowdown. Even after the downgrade, Goldman has assigned a price target of $50 for the stock. This would imply an upside potential of 35%. Clearly, the stock is undervalued even after discounting the slowdown concerns.Beyond the near-term concerns, Roblox is possibly the best metaverse play. It’s expected that the metaverse market will swell to $783.3 billion by 2024. This provides Roblox with ample growth opportunities in a global addressable market.It’s worth mentioning here that Roblox last reported metrics for February 2022. Daily active users were 55.1 million and increased by 28% on a y-o-y basis. Revenue growth for the month isestimated in the range of 60% to 63%. Even with a relative slowdown, the metrics look attractive.For 2021, Roblox had reported 108% revenue growth on a y-o-y basis. Assuming that annual growth metrics are similar to February 2022, the company is positioned for top-line growth of 60%. Deceleration in growth seems to have been more than discounted in the deep correction.Riot BlockchainSource: Sittipong Phokawattana / Shutterstock.comBitcoin(BTC-USD) has been trading in a broad consolidation zone. However, with growing adoption of cryptocurrencies and a limited supply of Bitcoin, the outlook remains positive.Riot Blockchain is among the undervalued stocks to buy with the best part of growth still to come. The Bitcoin miner has under-performed with a downside of 69% in the last 12-months.One reason for the downside is equity dilution. Further, Bitcoin has declined meaningfully from all-time highs. The steep correction in RIOT stock seems like a good accumulation opportunity.For March 2022, Riot reported mining of 511 Bitcoin. On a year-on-year basis, the number of Bitcoins mined increased by 176%. For the same period, the company reported hash-rate capacity of 4.3EH/s.The key point to note is that Riot expects toboost capacity to 12.8EH/sby January 2023. With tripling of capacity, Riot is poised for robust growth in the next 12-24 months.For 2021, Riot reported revenue of $213.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $82.4 million. This implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of 39%. If Bitcoin trends higher in the next few quarters, Riot will be positioned to deliver healthy cash flows.TeladocSource: Postmodern Studio / Shutterstock.comWith the pandemic triggering demand for virtual healthcare, Teladoc stock had surged to highs of $291 in February 2021. However, the markets have severely punished TDOC stock on growth and profitability concerns. The stock currently trades below $60 and seems is among the undervalued stocks to buy.For 2021, Teladoc reported revenue growth of 86% to $2 billion. However, for the current year, the company has guided for revenue growth in the range of 25% to 30%. A significant deceleration in growth however seems to be discounted in the stock price.Even the most bearish analyst has a 12-month forward price target of $60for the stock. I would therefore bet on a reversal rally from current levels.One point to note is that the global telehealth market is expected to swell to $636.38 billion by 2028. Through this period, the industrygrowth is likely at a CAGR of 32.1%. Even if Teladoc top-line growth is in-sync with the industry average, there is potential for EBITDA and cash flow upside. It’s just that the markets have discounted a relatively lower growth trajectory for the company.Another important point is that Teladoc revenue is largely from the U.S. However, international revenue growth has been decent. With ample financial flexibility, the company has the potential to accelerate international revenue and cater to a bigger addressable market.DraftKingsSource: Lori Butcher/Shutterstock.comDraftKings is an undervalued growth stock where I am willing to take a small contrarian bet. With a downside of 76% in the last 12-months, the selling in DKNG stock has been unabated.However, at a market capitalization of $6.1 billion, the business looks attractive. For 2021, DraftKings reported revenue of $1.3 billion. The stock is therefore trading at 5x revenue.This seems attractive considering the point that the online sports betting and iGaming market in North America is estimated at $67 billion to $80 billion.One reason for the stock slump is the massive cash burn. For 2021, DraftKings reported adjusted EBITDA loss of $676 billion. However, DraftKings is still at an early growth stage with steady improvement in average revenue per monthly unique payer.As more states legalize and regulate sports betting and iGaming, the growth outlook is robust. The decline in the stock has also been due to fears of significant decline in OSB and iGaming demand after the pandemic. It remains to be seen if growth remains healthy.However, in any case, DKNG stock looks oversold. I would take a medium-term position at current levels. A short squeeze and a quick rally of 15% to 20% seems entirely likely.Sea LimitedSource: Wirestock Creators / ShutterstockSea Limited is a fallen angel from the e-commerce sector. From October 2021 highs of $372, the stock has collapsed to current levels of $93.There are few reasons for the sharp correction. First and foremost, the markets have discounted growth deceleration. Furthermore, Sea Limited continues to report significant EBITDA level loss from the e-commerce sector. Even as the gaming segment EBITDA remains healthy.Recently, the company’s e-commerce unit, Shopee, exited India. This seems like a good decision from the perspective of cost control. If EBITDA margin in the e-commerce segment improves, SE stock is poised for a sharp reversal rally.It’s worth noting that the company operates in the high-growth Southeast Asian e-commerce market. Also, the company’s digital financial services have been gaining growth traction.For 2022, Sea Limited expects e-commerce revenue of $9.0 billion. On a y-o-y basis,revenue is expected to increase by 75.7%. The digital financial services growth is expected at 155.4% on a y-o-y basis. Clearly, it seems that top-line growth is not a major concern. It’s profitability concerns that have resulted in a sustained correction.However, the correction seems overdone. This view is underscored by the fact that 28 analysts have a median12-month forward price forecast of $200for the stock. This would imply more than 100% upside from current levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9,"RBLX":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"ETSY":0.9,"DKNG":0.9,"TDOC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}