Done!

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ the weather has been a little dry and hot for a few days now and the spring time Qing Ming rain is a good respite, both for myself and the plants I see while walking around. Got caught by a random downpour though, so that was a little annoying. The Good Friday/Easter Sunday combo is also a nice break, and whether you observe the holiday, the fun side of enjoying various chocolate is a thing for all ages. I have been enjoying some self made chocolate egg myself.

$POP MART(09992)$ has been in total anarchy. Despite posting reasonable numbers, it seems the market has determined that Labubu falling off the hype train is a killer blow and started dumping the shares, leading to constant slides. Maybe it was exacerbated by the chaotic global environment due to the Iran US war, but it likely will keep taking a beating until morale improves, or somehow Pop Mart strikes gold. I believe there's an avenue for Pop Mart to pursue collaborations with known and popular IP to create a win-win scenario, but that would not be as significant.

There will be more pain ahead, if Iran was the tired party and USA can thump its chest saying that it has won, maybe it will be a start of something good, because everyone is still so beholden to the US markets. Embarrassingly enough, Iran has been stubborn enough and USA looks to be an extremely frustrated figure, constantly having to declare that they have won, will win, yet still continue fighting. There will now be a more problematic Iran in the region who will not hesitate to lash out at anyone. The biggest curiosity I have is how the markets will react if it is obvious that the US did not win, will it simply celebrate the war ending and go up, or will it worry about further shakiness and stay anaemic.

Also, with rising energy costs, AI stocks will take a hit because they guzzle on electricity. They are struggling to even make money, and constantly have to burn cash to keep up with the latest chip to have the best computing power. The next few quarters will start to reflect a spike in expenditure for energy and the market will not respond kindly. Openai might just be dead in the water even before they get listed.

I see some light tremors going through the market now, oil prices are slowly creeping back up, diesel is truly up to concerning levels, concerns about fertilisers (urea production in the gulf countries) for the next planting season... the dominoes will continue falling. As it is, everything is pricier due to hormuz being choked, but further stoppages will directly impact food prices (not just through the increased cost of transportation) if fertiliser availability for the window is affected (although I remain unconvinced that even if the war stopped today, everything can continue as it was without any hiccups). I don't see why there should even be any optimism for the market to be in the green, because the war ending is not a guarantee.

Am I the only one waiting for the next big meltdown? I simply do not believe that Iran will back off easily. They will use everything in their arsenal (including cheaper shahed drones) to batter USA and Israel, and surrounding gulf states to ensure maximum pain for everyone. The strait of hormuz is a reflection of the war, USA may be stronger in sheer force, but they are helpless if Iran does not play ball. Once the market truly abandons faith in the beautiful words by Trump, everything should take a huge dive then it is time to buy.

It is ridiculous that despite the chaos sowed by the us president, the world is still so beholden to the usd and to the us treasury bonds. So much so that gold faces a slide while the war rages on. All because gold does not gain interest, but the war holds interest rates up and therefore it was deemed better to head back into us markets because interest rates will not be coming down any time soon.

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$  it is a little shocking to see that PDD missed estimates and yet made a rally on the market. Maybe there is strong optimism on the market for their future, especially with the Xi and Trum0 summit still to come, which could allow for better business opportunities for chinese companies. Then again, chinese stocks have been making some gains through the Iran war, so on some level, the positivity reflected could be related. I would be skeptical about how the prices spiked, albeit with the opening and closing being reasonably close, because there is nothing absolutely concrete that can be a reason for the wild prices being paid on the day.

Ah didn't make the poll in time, but I would gave expected an increase of less than 3%. And would have been wrong. Interesting how wildly the prices swung, I am surprised by the interest and will read up their earnings, there has to be good prospects ahead and solid fundamentals to attract some wild buys.

There is absolutely no way I would invest in spacex, not with the overly inflated valuation and the dead weight that comes along with the rocket part of the business. Mr. elon does whatever he likes, handing toxic assets back and forth between his businesses to line his own pockets, how investors can see that and be comfortable putting their money on a dishonest operator is bewildering. Also, are we seriously still sprouting the mars line? The guy said it because he knew it be on the headlines, with his ability to splash the cash, if he truly wanted to reach mars and stay there, he could, and it not having happened is testament that it is a load of bull.

My problem has to be bottom fishing, although I have slowly worked to change that, buying when it starts going back up does make sense in some context. But with the donald doing his manipulation, upswings can happen randomly, and the next big crash could just be a couple of days away even with what looks like days of recovery. Buying reliable stocks helps though, I am happy to not gamble on anything that glitters.

Trunp os only out to profit himself (and his cronies). The figures have shown a spike in trading activities for oil and SnP500, done before his "5 days" announcement. Imagine that, TRILLIONS of dollars made! Someone was so sure they would make money because they had insider information. TACO may be a joke for some, and a buying opportunity for others, but the money made is peanuts compared to the trades made by those with privileged knowledge before the various bombs (both literally and figuratively) dropped by the donald.

My next move? Wait for the next big crash and buy. The donald has been pulling this TACO card so many times he probably has a few free burritos. Seriously though, he keep timing his announcements for market close or open to avoid blowbacks or stem losses. (Context: announced a pause on the iranian energy facilities strike before markets opened, thereby allowing a decent opening, but delay will be for 5 days, so markets will close by then.)

I am absolutely certain that the market is in for more pain, and if anyone has any semblance of logic, it is precisely because of TACO that more chaos is coming. Firstly, it has been clear that the us president has been pulling this move to prevent markets from huge crashes. From the beginning of the war, multiple claims ranging from "the war has been won" to "the war will end soon" has been made and still the war chugs on. And it ALWAYS gives a lift to stock prices. Oil prices would have spiked harder if not for all the false dawns. Secondly, as I have seen in reports, people have been placing very well-timed bets on various aspects of the war, whether it was for the old Iran leader's death, to oil prices, etc. If I was a betting man too, I would say it likely is insider trading with some

Buy the dip. Trump has once again claimed that the war will end soon, and if the market has learned, it is that he always speaks first without truly knowing if it will happen, anything to prop up the system. I think this will have big consequences: starting a fight that could not be wrapped up properly, and having to retreat... all while oil prices spiked and huge damage was done to production facilities for natural gas (further adding to energy price woes). The market would logically not be picking up easily and pessimism should rule.

Do one for losses too, Tiger with Diamond Hands [Grin]

I still think it is best to wait and see what the market really wants. Maybe the market is being more cautious now, after a year of bull runs in 2025, everyone is sobering up and understanding that things cannot go up infinitely. I do believe that efficiency has to be the next point to be addressed, but will investors place enough emphasis to signal it. Efficiency both in terms of maximising whatever infrastructure (like how deepseek could do more with less, putting openai to shame) is available, and energy, where consumption has to be clamped down and considerations be made for energy generation (pivoting more into green energy etc.) too.

I think the most important layer is still the chip layer, either the manufacturer or the designer. Simply put, everything else is not important if the chip itself is not designed right or made right. An example is Apple, where they design and produce their own chips for the devices they sell, they are able to optimise it for the best power efficiency, giving them the option to increase battery life or have a smaller battery yet still keep up with competition.

This will only be a temporary bandaid, simply because the Iranian leaders have enjoyed so much of what they took from the people and the resources of the land and will not easily give up the riches that they fought so hard to hold on to. So the war either has to go on until usa/israel gives up, or the iranian leaders believe they can no longer hold on and flee with whatever gold and cash they can grab. Only until then will the pressure on oil fade, and I believe that will be at least a week, if not a couple of months. Just one week is enough for so much more pain, especially when markets keep trying to find hope by grasping at any perceived positive news to make gains, only to continue its descend the next day when the war rages on.