Robert Ronja personal page - To The Moon

Robert Ronja

Robert Ronja

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2022-07-08

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$good

2022-04-22

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$up up up

2022-04-20

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$good

2022-09-26

Okey

If Not The Bottom, Then What?

2022-10-11

[Duh] [Sly] [Sly] [Sly]

@daz999999999:(12th July) Thoughts on Airbnb (ABNB)

2022-07-07

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$good

2022-06-20

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$good

2022-06-17

$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$good

2022-06-16

$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$good

2022-06-15

Goo$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>Investors took a quick liking to Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB when the stock debuted in December 2020 and immediately bid the price higher. The first day of trading led to the price more than doubling from the $68-per-share debut price, and it hit intraday highs near $220 by mid-February 2021.The stock had some ups and downs with each new report related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic effects, then started a somewhat bumpy decline beginning in November 2021. Clearly, Airbnb did not escape the bear market and the decline has taken its price below $87 per share at one point in late June. with the stock now trading near 52-week lows, prospective buyers are asking whether or not Airbnb is a buy now. Let's see if we can find an an","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>Investors took a quick liking to Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB when the stock debuted in December 2020 and immediately bid the price higher. 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Let's see if we can find an an","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66849bae885b70bdc4e49a5ae92505e5","width":"640","height":"532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078103052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917942155,"gmtCreate":1665421876477,"gmtModify":1676537603486,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shared it&nbsp;","listText":"Shared it&nbsp;","text":"Shared it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917942155","repostId":"9072144411","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9072144411,"gmtCreate":1658009360633,"gmtModify":1676536091587,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHZ.SI\">$HRNETGROUP LIMITED(CHZ.SI)$</a>&nbsp;is one of the largest recruitment and staffing companies in Asia with over 900 consultants spread across 13 Asian cities.&nbsp; From its humble beginnings in 1992, HRNet has shown resilience and excellent management by its overall strong growth and profitability since inception.HRNet business model is based on 2 complementary business with flexible staffing business providing a relatively stable and steady revenue stream during economic downturns&nbsp;while the professional recruitment business generally performs well during periods of economic growth.In the latest earnings report FY2021, Revenue grew 36% to SGD590.5 million.&nbsp; Gross Profit grew 35% to SGD175 million and Net Profit After Tax grew 41%&nbsp;to","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CHZ.SI\">$HRNETGROUP LIMITED(CHZ.SI)$</a>&nbsp;is one of the largest recruitment and staffing companies in Asia with over 900 consultants spread across 13 Asian cities.&nbsp; From its humble beginnings in 1992, HRNet has shown resilience and excellent management by its overall strong growth and profitability since inception.HRNet business model is based on 2 complementary business with flexible staffing business providing a relatively stable and steady revenue stream during economic downturns&nbsp;while the professional recruitment business generally performs well during periods of economic growth.In the latest earnings report FY2021, Revenue grew 36% to SGD590.5 million.&nbsp; Gross Profit grew 35% to SGD175 million and Net Profit After Tax grew 41%&nbsp;to","text":"$HRNETGROUP LIMITED(CHZ.SI)$ is one of the largest recruitment and staffing companies in Asia with over 900 consultants spread across 13 Asian cities. From its humble beginnings in 1992, HRNet has shown resilience and excellent management by its overall strong growth and profitability since inception.HRNet business model is based on 2 complementary business with flexible staffing business providing a relatively stable and steady revenue stream during economic downturns while the professional recruitment business generally performs well during periods of economic growth.In the latest earnings report FY2021, Revenue grew 36% to SGD590.5 million. Gross Profit grew 35% to SGD175 million and Net Profit After Tax grew 41% to","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/13e96c65b93f5ba05e0baecdb9138d9b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072144411","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911680652,"gmtCreate":1664194119377,"gmtModify":1676537407086,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okey&nbsp;","listText":"Okey&nbsp;","text":"Okey","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911680652","repostId":"1154262778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154262778","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664205477,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154262778?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If Not The Bottom, Then What?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154262778","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Leading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future.</li><li>With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.</li><li>Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns.</li></ul><h3>Caveat</h3><p>We admit we don’t know what the future holds for us. I am falling back on my instinct to view things as bets with their own uncertain odds.</p><h3>Investment Markets Decline on September 23rd</h3><p>Leading central bank interest rates, sertt by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future. (My guess is that they won’t be successful at current levels until they switch from attempting to reduce demand to increasing supply, which is more difficult.) With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.</p><p>The battle against industrial goods inflation may be close to won, with the year-over-year change in the JOC-ECRI industrial price at -9.69%, gasoline demand down almost -8%, and distillates down about -16%. (I think it is going to be more difficult to address inflation in services, which is mostly comprised of wages for talented people.) Furthermore, food prices are much more dependent on the global decline in land use and availability.</p><p>As usual, the high-quality fixed-income markets are more advanced than the equity markets.</p><p>Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average established a new low for the year, the S&amp;P 500 was the third-lowest, and the Nasdaq the fifth-lowest. Considering the latter two indices had greater gains, the fall of the DJIA is less impressive. While there was an increase in transaction volume from a low base, it was not impressive. There are no signs of mass capitulation at public or institutional levels.</p><h3>Outlook</h3><p>There are four possible paths forward. In order of time, magnitude and pain, they are:</p><p>A bear market without a recession has happened a few times and is largely a price correction. We are closing in on that.</p><p>A cyclical recession is usually driven by commodity prices or other supply issues. This is satisfactorily addressed in a few years.</p><p>A structural recession due to systemic imbalances of power and leadership requires major changes, which drastically alter society. Depending on the level of violence, it can take many years.</p><p>Stagflation, where a portion of the society/economy sacrifices involuntarily to the other until there is a counter-revolutionary force. There is usually a period of mismanagement and legal turmoil. We have experienced two periods like this in the past beginning in the 1930s and 1970s.</p><p>Each alternative is possible. Prudent investors should make up their own minds as to what is probable for their beneficiaries and careers. (To be discussed later.)</p><p>Before choosing your expected future, there is a new threat and lesson which surfaced this week.</p><h3>London’s Future Lesson and Threat</h3><p>This week, the brand-new Prime Minister announced a very expensive plan of pump-priming and tax reduction for individuals. The reaction of the London investment market and currency was shock and fear. The former US Secretary of Treasury and former President of Harvard summed up the view of many on both sides of the Atlantic that these were “the worst possible policies”.</p><p>There are two lessons for the US from these policies which march down the same road as the current US administration.</p><p>The lesson for US and other investors is that the value of one’s currency shapes the willingness of foreigners to invest in the currency. The independent Bank of England, their central bank, raised interest rates by 100 basis points earlier in the week before this announcement. On Friday, there was a call for the BOE to immediately raise rates another 100 basis points.</p><p>This controversy is important for the US with its highly rated currency, which somewhat ironically had the second-biggest gain for the week, according to The Wall Street Journal. (The only currency that had a bigger gain was the Russian ruble, +4.54% vs.+2.57%.)</p><p>Investors, traders, and customers look at the currency behind the source of earnings in today’s currency markets. We are all familiar with the “Petrodollar”, which is based on the earnings derived from petroleum production and sale. To some degree, the tag of Petrodollar has also been placed on the currencies of Russia and Canada, among others, in addition to various Middle Eastern countries.</p><p>While it hasn’t been popularly done before, I believe we may now see a financial pound label placed on the British currency. A major part of its earnings come from its transaction markets and multinationals headquartered in the UK with export earnings, as well as contributions from my wife at her favorite shopping location.</p><p>We should watch what happens in the UK as an indication of a possible trend for the US.</p><h3>Investing Equity Reserves</h3><p>Last week’s blog suggested a tactical plan to reinvest reserves coming from equity investments, or from cash flows to be invested in equities.</p><p>Investors will be benefit from dollar-cost averaging, no matter which frequency is used. They will also benefit from the selection of one of the four alternative futures outlined above.</p><p>The most important long-term decision regarding the ultimate value of the account is to not get too comfortable with cash reserves while interest rates earn single-digit returns. This will be costly, as stock markets go up as rates come down, resulting in some principal loss. More important, time not invested in equities at low prices will be lost. For taxable investors, the difference in taxes on interest and gains can be meaningful, particularly in well-constructed estates.</p><p>In making choices where time horizon is appropriate for your investments, I expect the last two scenarios to be the most likely, based on today’s information. For example, Walmart (WMT) is not building inventory and staff for the holiday season. Their shoppers, for the most part, are modest-income, savvy buyers. If Walmart is not expecting a good holiday season for itself, one should question how quickly inflation will drop below 5%.</p><p>Typically, a well-known name disappears from the marketplace due to severe financial trouble. None has so far, but you might see a rescue merger or court action.</p><p>I have no inside information, but I am concerned that reported earnings and, more importantly, values are overstated for the current economy, making market valuations questionable. One such possible company is Credit Suisse (CS). The pundits are quoting it as selling for almost 20% of book value! I am sure this is not a singular situation.</p><p>Please share your views.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Not The Bottom, Then What?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Not The Bottom, Then What?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-26 23:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543053-if-not-bottom-then-what><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future.With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543053-if-not-bottom-then-what\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543053-if-not-bottom-then-what","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154262778","content_text":"SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future.With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns.CaveatWe admit we don’t know what the future holds for us. I am falling back on my instinct to view things as bets with their own uncertain odds.Investment Markets Decline on September 23rdLeading central bank interest rates, sertt by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future. (My guess is that they won’t be successful at current levels until they switch from attempting to reduce demand to increasing supply, which is more difficult.) With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.The battle against industrial goods inflation may be close to won, with the year-over-year change in the JOC-ECRI industrial price at -9.69%, gasoline demand down almost -8%, and distillates down about -16%. (I think it is going to be more difficult to address inflation in services, which is mostly comprised of wages for talented people.) Furthermore, food prices are much more dependent on the global decline in land use and availability.As usual, the high-quality fixed-income markets are more advanced than the equity markets.Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average established a new low for the year, the S&P 500 was the third-lowest, and the Nasdaq the fifth-lowest. Considering the latter two indices had greater gains, the fall of the DJIA is less impressive. While there was an increase in transaction volume from a low base, it was not impressive. There are no signs of mass capitulation at public or institutional levels.OutlookThere are four possible paths forward. In order of time, magnitude and pain, they are:A bear market without a recession has happened a few times and is largely a price correction. We are closing in on that.A cyclical recession is usually driven by commodity prices or other supply issues. This is satisfactorily addressed in a few years.A structural recession due to systemic imbalances of power and leadership requires major changes, which drastically alter society. Depending on the level of violence, it can take many years.Stagflation, where a portion of the society/economy sacrifices involuntarily to the other until there is a counter-revolutionary force. There is usually a period of mismanagement and legal turmoil. We have experienced two periods like this in the past beginning in the 1930s and 1970s.Each alternative is possible. Prudent investors should make up their own minds as to what is probable for their beneficiaries and careers. (To be discussed later.)Before choosing your expected future, there is a new threat and lesson which surfaced this week.London’s Future Lesson and ThreatThis week, the brand-new Prime Minister announced a very expensive plan of pump-priming and tax reduction for individuals. The reaction of the London investment market and currency was shock and fear. The former US Secretary of Treasury and former President of Harvard summed up the view of many on both sides of the Atlantic that these were “the worst possible policies”.There are two lessons for the US from these policies which march down the same road as the current US administration.The lesson for US and other investors is that the value of one’s currency shapes the willingness of foreigners to invest in the currency. The independent Bank of England, their central bank, raised interest rates by 100 basis points earlier in the week before this announcement. On Friday, there was a call for the BOE to immediately raise rates another 100 basis points.This controversy is important for the US with its highly rated currency, which somewhat ironically had the second-biggest gain for the week, according to The Wall Street Journal. (The only currency that had a bigger gain was the Russian ruble, +4.54% vs.+2.57%.)Investors, traders, and customers look at the currency behind the source of earnings in today’s currency markets. We are all familiar with the “Petrodollar”, which is based on the earnings derived from petroleum production and sale. To some degree, the tag of Petrodollar has also been placed on the currencies of Russia and Canada, among others, in addition to various Middle Eastern countries.While it hasn’t been popularly done before, I believe we may now see a financial pound label placed on the British currency. A major part of its earnings come from its transaction markets and multinationals headquartered in the UK with export earnings, as well as contributions from my wife at her favorite shopping location.We should watch what happens in the UK as an indication of a possible trend for the US.Investing Equity ReservesLast week’s blog suggested a tactical plan to reinvest reserves coming from equity investments, or from cash flows to be invested in equities.Investors will be benefit from dollar-cost averaging, no matter which frequency is used. They will also benefit from the selection of one of the four alternative futures outlined above.The most important long-term decision regarding the ultimate value of the account is to not get too comfortable with cash reserves while interest rates earn single-digit returns. This will be costly, as stock markets go up as rates come down, resulting in some principal loss. More important, time not invested in equities at low prices will be lost. For taxable investors, the difference in taxes on interest and gains can be meaningful, particularly in well-constructed estates.In making choices where time horizon is appropriate for your investments, I expect the last two scenarios to be the most likely, based on today’s information. For example, Walmart (WMT) is not building inventory and staff for the holiday season. Their shoppers, for the most part, are modest-income, savvy buyers. If Walmart is not expecting a good holiday season for itself, one should question how quickly inflation will drop below 5%.Typically, a well-known name disappears from the marketplace due to severe financial trouble. None has so far, but you might see a rescue merger or court action.I have no inside information, but I am concerned that reported earnings and, more importantly, values are overstated for the current economy, making market valuations questionable. One such possible company is Credit Suisse (CS). The pundits are quoting it as selling for almost 20% of book value! I am sure this is not a singular situation.Please share your views.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079515771,"gmtCreate":1657218865094,"gmtModify":1676535971328,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>good","text":"$Tiger 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Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Goo<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>","listText":"Goo<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>","text":"Goo$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055926506","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055926015,"gmtCreate":1655227786737,"gmtModify":1676535589934,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055926015","repostId":"9022524674","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9022524674,"gmtCreate":1653552819200,"gmtModify":1676535303082,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Time Travel with Tiger, Join the Memorabilia Adventure Now!!!","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi\n \n","listText":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","text":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022524674","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"97af7069aa6440eab7c85601f72b41b1","tweetId":"9022524674","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/5836ee3f387702302012189230/1IRQdazMc4YA.mp4","poster":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2462b20b2a9a2483ae56cbb54dcb2a7"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9055928462,"gmtCreate":1655227761356,"gmtModify":1676535589933,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055928462","repostId":"9052241403","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9052241403,"gmtCreate":1655184752893,"gmtModify":1676535577725,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"The Fed will make a big move this week ,How will gold and oil change?","htmlText":"After the latest January inflation data was released and hit a new high, the market had new expectations for the Fed's actions. According to the latest Fedwatch data, the probability of FOMC in July has been 50-50. In this week's expectation, although there are some variables, the probability of 50 basis points is obviously superior.Data show that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points on June 15th is close to 80%. Although this figure has dropped significantly compared with 98.2% a week ago, as we said before, it is still relatively stable when it exceeds 70%. In contrast, July's data, which also overwhelmingly raised interest rates by 50 basis points a week ago, is now seriously divided. Even the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points has reached","listText":"After the latest January inflation data was released and hit a new high, the market had new expectations for the Fed's actions. According to the latest Fedwatch data, the probability of FOMC in July has been 50-50. In this week's expectation, although there are some variables, the probability of 50 basis points is obviously superior.Data show that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points on June 15th is close to 80%. Although this figure has dropped significantly compared with 98.2% a week ago, as we said before, it is still relatively stable when it exceeds 70%. In contrast, July's data, which also overwhelmingly raised interest rates by 50 basis points a week ago, is now seriously divided. Even the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points has reached","text":"After the latest January inflation data was released and hit a new high, the market had new expectations for the Fed's actions. According to the latest Fedwatch data, the probability of FOMC in July has been 50-50. In this week's expectation, although there are some variables, the probability of 50 basis points is obviously superior.Data show that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points on June 15th is close to 80%. Although this figure has dropped significantly compared with 98.2% a week ago, as we said before, it is still relatively stable when it exceeds 70%. In contrast, July's data, which also overwhelmingly raised interest rates by 50 basis points a week ago, is now seriously divided. Even the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points has reached","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfe2fe3cee7323f1f78c623834e5d53","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052241403","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082472147,"gmtCreate":1650596237512,"gmtModify":1676534761073,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>up up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>up up up","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082472147","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086093476,"gmtCreate":1650398365178,"gmtModify":1676534712245,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>good","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086093476","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9083744003,"gmtCreate":1650164180827,"gmtModify":1676534660572,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>ggood","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>ggood","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ggood","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9083744003","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9079515771,"gmtCreate":1657218865094,"gmtModify":1676535971328,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>good","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079515771","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082472147,"gmtCreate":1650596237512,"gmtModify":1676534761073,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>up up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a>up up up","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082472147","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086093476,"gmtCreate":1650398365178,"gmtModify":1676534712245,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>good","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>good","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086093476","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911680652,"gmtCreate":1664194119377,"gmtModify":1676537407086,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okey&nbsp;","listText":"Okey&nbsp;","text":"Okey","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911680652","repostId":"1154262778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154262778","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664205477,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154262778?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If Not The Bottom, Then What?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154262778","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Leading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future.</li><li>With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.</li><li>Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns.</li></ul><h3>Caveat</h3><p>We admit we don’t know what the future holds for us. I am falling back on my instinct to view things as bets with their own uncertain odds.</p><h3>Investment Markets Decline on September 23rd</h3><p>Leading central bank interest rates, sertt by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future. (My guess is that they won’t be successful at current levels until they switch from attempting to reduce demand to increasing supply, which is more difficult.) With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.</p><p>The battle against industrial goods inflation may be close to won, with the year-over-year change in the JOC-ECRI industrial price at -9.69%, gasoline demand down almost -8%, and distillates down about -16%. (I think it is going to be more difficult to address inflation in services, which is mostly comprised of wages for talented people.) Furthermore, food prices are much more dependent on the global decline in land use and availability.</p><p>As usual, the high-quality fixed-income markets are more advanced than the equity markets.</p><p>Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average established a new low for the year, the S&amp;P 500 was the third-lowest, and the Nasdaq the fifth-lowest. Considering the latter two indices had greater gains, the fall of the DJIA is less impressive. While there was an increase in transaction volume from a low base, it was not impressive. There are no signs of mass capitulation at public or institutional levels.</p><h3>Outlook</h3><p>There are four possible paths forward. In order of time, magnitude and pain, they are:</p><p>A bear market without a recession has happened a few times and is largely a price correction. We are closing in on that.</p><p>A cyclical recession is usually driven by commodity prices or other supply issues. This is satisfactorily addressed in a few years.</p><p>A structural recession due to systemic imbalances of power and leadership requires major changes, which drastically alter society. Depending on the level of violence, it can take many years.</p><p>Stagflation, where a portion of the society/economy sacrifices involuntarily to the other until there is a counter-revolutionary force. There is usually a period of mismanagement and legal turmoil. We have experienced two periods like this in the past beginning in the 1930s and 1970s.</p><p>Each alternative is possible. Prudent investors should make up their own minds as to what is probable for their beneficiaries and careers. (To be discussed later.)</p><p>Before choosing your expected future, there is a new threat and lesson which surfaced this week.</p><h3>London’s Future Lesson and Threat</h3><p>This week, the brand-new Prime Minister announced a very expensive plan of pump-priming and tax reduction for individuals. The reaction of the London investment market and currency was shock and fear. The former US Secretary of Treasury and former President of Harvard summed up the view of many on both sides of the Atlantic that these were “the worst possible policies”.</p><p>There are two lessons for the US from these policies which march down the same road as the current US administration.</p><p>The lesson for US and other investors is that the value of one’s currency shapes the willingness of foreigners to invest in the currency. The independent Bank of England, their central bank, raised interest rates by 100 basis points earlier in the week before this announcement. On Friday, there was a call for the BOE to immediately raise rates another 100 basis points.</p><p>This controversy is important for the US with its highly rated currency, which somewhat ironically had the second-biggest gain for the week, according to The Wall Street Journal. (The only currency that had a bigger gain was the Russian ruble, +4.54% vs.+2.57%.)</p><p>Investors, traders, and customers look at the currency behind the source of earnings in today’s currency markets. We are all familiar with the “Petrodollar”, which is based on the earnings derived from petroleum production and sale. To some degree, the tag of Petrodollar has also been placed on the currencies of Russia and Canada, among others, in addition to various Middle Eastern countries.</p><p>While it hasn’t been popularly done before, I believe we may now see a financial pound label placed on the British currency. A major part of its earnings come from its transaction markets and multinationals headquartered in the UK with export earnings, as well as contributions from my wife at her favorite shopping location.</p><p>We should watch what happens in the UK as an indication of a possible trend for the US.</p><h3>Investing Equity Reserves</h3><p>Last week’s blog suggested a tactical plan to reinvest reserves coming from equity investments, or from cash flows to be invested in equities.</p><p>Investors will be benefit from dollar-cost averaging, no matter which frequency is used. They will also benefit from the selection of one of the four alternative futures outlined above.</p><p>The most important long-term decision regarding the ultimate value of the account is to not get too comfortable with cash reserves while interest rates earn single-digit returns. This will be costly, as stock markets go up as rates come down, resulting in some principal loss. More important, time not invested in equities at low prices will be lost. For taxable investors, the difference in taxes on interest and gains can be meaningful, particularly in well-constructed estates.</p><p>In making choices where time horizon is appropriate for your investments, I expect the last two scenarios to be the most likely, based on today’s information. For example, Walmart (WMT) is not building inventory and staff for the holiday season. Their shoppers, for the most part, are modest-income, savvy buyers. If Walmart is not expecting a good holiday season for itself, one should question how quickly inflation will drop below 5%.</p><p>Typically, a well-known name disappears from the marketplace due to severe financial trouble. None has so far, but you might see a rescue merger or court action.</p><p>I have no inside information, but I am concerned that reported earnings and, more importantly, values are overstated for the current economy, making market valuations questionable. One such possible company is Credit Suisse (CS). The pundits are quoting it as selling for almost 20% of book value! I am sure this is not a singular situation.</p><p>Please share your views.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Not The Bottom, Then What?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Not The Bottom, Then What?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-26 23:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543053-if-not-bottom-then-what><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future.With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543053-if-not-bottom-then-what\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543053-if-not-bottom-then-what","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154262778","content_text":"SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future.With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns.CaveatWe admit we don’t know what the future holds for us. I am falling back on my instinct to view things as bets with their own uncertain odds.Investment Markets Decline on September 23rdLeading central bank interest rates, sertt by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future. (My guess is that they won’t be successful at current levels until they switch from attempting to reduce demand to increasing supply, which is more difficult.) With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.The battle against industrial goods inflation may be close to won, with the year-over-year change in the JOC-ECRI industrial price at -9.69%, gasoline demand down almost -8%, and distillates down about -16%. (I think it is going to be more difficult to address inflation in services, which is mostly comprised of wages for talented people.) Furthermore, food prices are much more dependent on the global decline in land use and availability.As usual, the high-quality fixed-income markets are more advanced than the equity markets.Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average established a new low for the year, the S&P 500 was the third-lowest, and the Nasdaq the fifth-lowest. Considering the latter two indices had greater gains, the fall of the DJIA is less impressive. While there was an increase in transaction volume from a low base, it was not impressive. There are no signs of mass capitulation at public or institutional levels.OutlookThere are four possible paths forward. In order of time, magnitude and pain, they are:A bear market without a recession has happened a few times and is largely a price correction. We are closing in on that.A cyclical recession is usually driven by commodity prices or other supply issues. This is satisfactorily addressed in a few years.A structural recession due to systemic imbalances of power and leadership requires major changes, which drastically alter society. Depending on the level of violence, it can take many years.Stagflation, where a portion of the society/economy sacrifices involuntarily to the other until there is a counter-revolutionary force. There is usually a period of mismanagement and legal turmoil. We have experienced two periods like this in the past beginning in the 1930s and 1970s.Each alternative is possible. Prudent investors should make up their own minds as to what is probable for their beneficiaries and careers. (To be discussed later.)Before choosing your expected future, there is a new threat and lesson which surfaced this week.London’s Future Lesson and ThreatThis week, the brand-new Prime Minister announced a very expensive plan of pump-priming and tax reduction for individuals. The reaction of the London investment market and currency was shock and fear. The former US Secretary of Treasury and former President of Harvard summed up the view of many on both sides of the Atlantic that these were “the worst possible policies”.There are two lessons for the US from these policies which march down the same road as the current US administration.The lesson for US and other investors is that the value of one’s currency shapes the willingness of foreigners to invest in the currency. The independent Bank of England, their central bank, raised interest rates by 100 basis points earlier in the week before this announcement. On Friday, there was a call for the BOE to immediately raise rates another 100 basis points.This controversy is important for the US with its highly rated currency, which somewhat ironically had the second-biggest gain for the week, according to The Wall Street Journal. (The only currency that had a bigger gain was the Russian ruble, +4.54% vs.+2.57%.)Investors, traders, and customers look at the currency behind the source of earnings in today’s currency markets. We are all familiar with the “Petrodollar”, which is based on the earnings derived from petroleum production and sale. To some degree, the tag of Petrodollar has also been placed on the currencies of Russia and Canada, among others, in addition to various Middle Eastern countries.While it hasn’t been popularly done before, I believe we may now see a financial pound label placed on the British currency. A major part of its earnings come from its transaction markets and multinationals headquartered in the UK with export earnings, as well as contributions from my wife at her favorite shopping location.We should watch what happens in the UK as an indication of a possible trend for the US.Investing Equity ReservesLast week’s blog suggested a tactical plan to reinvest reserves coming from equity investments, or from cash flows to be invested in equities.Investors will be benefit from dollar-cost averaging, no matter which frequency is used. They will also benefit from the selection of one of the four alternative futures outlined above.The most important long-term decision regarding the ultimate value of the account is to not get too comfortable with cash reserves while interest rates earn single-digit returns. This will be costly, as stock markets go up as rates come down, resulting in some principal loss. More important, time not invested in equities at low prices will be lost. For taxable investors, the difference in taxes on interest and gains can be meaningful, particularly in well-constructed estates.In making choices where time horizon is appropriate for your investments, I expect the last two scenarios to be the most likely, based on today’s information. For example, Walmart (WMT) is not building inventory and staff for the holiday season. Their shoppers, for the most part, are modest-income, savvy buyers. If Walmart is not expecting a good holiday season for itself, one should question how quickly inflation will drop below 5%.Typically, a well-known name disappears from the marketplace due to severe financial trouble. None has so far, but you might see a rescue merger or court action.I have no inside information, but I am concerned that reported earnings and, more importantly, values are overstated for the current economy, making market valuations questionable. One such possible company is Credit Suisse (CS). The pundits are quoting it as selling for almost 20% of book value! I am sure this is not a singular situation.Please share your views.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917942279,"gmtCreate":1665422030591,"gmtModify":1676537603501,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Duh]&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp;","listText":"[Duh]&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp;","text":"[Duh] [Sly] [Sly] [Sly]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917942279","repostId":"9078103052","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9078103052,"gmtCreate":1657647168176,"gmtModify":1676536038720,"author":{"id":"4088639346266630","authorId":"4088639346266630","name":"daz999999999","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8bbe8cd95504dc1e0dd3af78504d3f7e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088639346266630","idStr":"4088639346266630"},"themes":[],"title":"(12th July) Thoughts on Airbnb (ABNB)","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>Investors took a quick liking to Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB when the stock debuted in December 2020 and immediately bid the price higher. The first day of trading led to the price more than doubling from the $68-per-share debut price, and it hit intraday highs near $220 by mid-February 2021.The stock had some ups and downs with each new report related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic effects, then started a somewhat bumpy decline beginning in November 2021. Clearly, Airbnb did not escape the bear market and the decline has taken its price below $87 per share at one point in late June. with the stock now trading near 52-week lows, prospective buyers are asking whether or not Airbnb is a buy now. Let's see if we can find an an","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>Investors took a quick liking to Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB when the stock debuted in December 2020 and immediately bid the price higher. The first day of trading led to the price more than doubling from the $68-per-share debut price, and it hit intraday highs near $220 by mid-February 2021.The stock had some ups and downs with each new report related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic effects, then started a somewhat bumpy decline beginning in November 2021. Clearly, Airbnb did not escape the bear market and the decline has taken its price below $87 per share at one point in late June. with the stock now trading near 52-week lows, prospective buyers are asking whether or not Airbnb is a buy now. Let's see if we can find an an","text":"$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$Investors took a quick liking to Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB when the stock debuted in December 2020 and immediately bid the price higher. The first day of trading led to the price more than doubling from the $68-per-share debut price, and it hit intraday highs near $220 by mid-February 2021.The stock had some ups and downs with each new report related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic effects, then started a somewhat bumpy decline beginning in November 2021. Clearly, Airbnb did not escape the bear market and the decline has taken its price below $87 per share at one point in late June. with the stock now trading near 52-week lows, prospective buyers are asking whether or not Airbnb is a buy now. Let's see if we can find an an","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66849bae885b70bdc4e49a5ae92505e5","width":"640","height":"532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078103052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079044037,"gmtCreate":1657128716229,"gmtModify":1676535954292,"author":{"id":"4099429330797950","authorId":"4099429330797950","name":"Robert Ronja","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f62dee1ea4e67646761bcf94f7cc4f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099429330797950","idStr":"4099429330797950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger 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