Ted1209 personal page - To The Moon

Ted1209

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2022-09-25

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If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”

2022-09-21

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2022-09-12

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A Bad Year for Crypto Is a Really Bad One for Crypto Miners

2022-11-03

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2022-08-01

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Alibaba, Nio, XPeng, Li Auto, Boeing, Activision Blizzard and HSBC: U.S. Stocks To Watch

2022-07-25

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Fed, Tech Earnings, GDP Data: What to Know Ahead of the Busiest Week of the Year

2022-09-18

[USD]

Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know

2022-09-14

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XPeng Stock Is About to Go Higher, Says Analyst

2022-09-09

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Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It

2022-09-08

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The CME FedWatch tool, based on 30-day fed funds futures pricing data, puts a 98.2% probability of a 25-bp increase, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 4.50%-4.75%. The Fed's rapid tightening, which started in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955366282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965346733,"gmtCreate":1669902335222,"gmtModify":1676538266577,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965346733","repostId":"9965340238","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9965340238,"gmtCreate":1669901526924,"gmtModify":1676538266363,"author":{"id":"9000000000000358","authorId":"9000000000000358","name":"cheezzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b1d941a51e1a5f1ca29e3f8ce62213","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000358","authorIdStr":"9000000000000358"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"On November 28, the third quarterly report of Pinduoduo was released. 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In the third quarter, Pinduoduo achieved a revenue of 35.5 billion yuan, up 65.1% year on year; Under the US GAAP, the net profit attributable to common shareholders is 10.59 billion yuan.In the third quarter, Pinduoduo continued to increase subsidy investment, launched a series of activities such as \"Super Agricultural Goods Festival\", \"Duoduo Harvest Hall\" and \"Duoduo New Craftsmanship\", and created an important incremental market for high-quality development of the real economy.What will happen when traditional craftsmanship meets the Internet? Phoenix Pufan, Chongqing Dengjiadao, Gaocheng Palace Lantern, Yixing Purple Clay Pot... 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot Chinese ADRs Fell in Premarket Trading, With Alibaba Sliding over 3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-29 16:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Hot Chinese ADRs Fell in Premarket Trading.</p><p>Xpeng dropped nearly 8%, Alibaba, Li Auto, Bilibili, Nio, iQiyi slid over 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3b078d22f147cef4b70735e9cce7d9\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"709\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","BILI":"哔哩哔哩"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131541365","content_text":"Hot Chinese ADRs Fell in Premarket Trading.Xpeng dropped nearly 8%, Alibaba, Li Auto, Bilibili, Nio, iQiyi slid over 3%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"BILI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918078913,"gmtCreate":1664292192732,"gmtModify":1676537427264,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918078913","repostId":"1123978281","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123978281","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664291602,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123978281?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Does the Street Consider Apple Stock to be a “Strong Buy”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123978281","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsWhile Apple, like other tech stocks, is under pressure due to rising interest rates ","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsWhile Apple, like other tech stocks, is under pressure due to rising interest rates and an impending recession, Wall Street analysts continue to be bullish on the long-term prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/why-does-the-street-consider-apple-stock-nasdaqaapl-to-be-a-strong-buy\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Does the Street Consider Apple Stock to be a “Strong Buy”?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Does the Street Consider Apple Stock to be a “Strong Buy”?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-27 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/why-does-the-street-consider-apple-stock-nasdaqaapl-to-be-a-strong-buy><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsWhile Apple, like other tech stocks, is under pressure due to rising interest rates and an impending recession, Wall Street analysts continue to be bullish on the long-term prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/why-does-the-street-consider-apple-stock-nasdaqaapl-to-be-a-strong-buy\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/why-does-the-street-consider-apple-stock-nasdaqaapl-to-be-a-strong-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123978281","content_text":"Story HighlightsWhile Apple, like other tech stocks, is under pressure due to rising interest rates and an impending recession, Wall Street analysts continue to be bullish on the long-term prospects of the iPhone maker.Investors are bracing for more trouble as the aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to tame inflation are expected to push the U.S. economy into recession. The S&P 500  (SPX) and NASDAQ 100 (NDX) have declined 23.3% and over 31% year-to-date, respectively. While many tech stocks have been clobbered this year, Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock has shown some amount of resilience and is down 15% year-to-date. Most Wall Street analysts remain bullish about the tech giant based on its strong track record, continued innovation, and progress into new growth areas like fintech.Apple is Well-Positioned for Long-Term GrowthApple’s Q3 Fiscal 2022 (ended June 30, 2022) revenue increased 1.9% to nearly $83 billion, but earnings per share fell 8% to $1.20. That said, the company managed to top analysts’ expectations for both key metrics.While Apple cautioned investors about near-term pressures, including currency headwinds and supply chain woes, it expects revenue growth to accelerate in the September quarter compared to the June quarter.Meanwhile, Apple is diversifying its manufacturing footprint amid production disruptions in China. Apple recently announced that it would be manufacturing the iPhone 14 in India. The company has been manufacturing old models of iPhones in India but this time it is going ahead with the production of a newly launched device. The move is expected to boost Apple’s prospects in a lucrative market like India.Additionally, Apple continues to deepen customer engagement with its services business, which includes sales from Applecare, advertising, cloud, payment, and other services. Note that the company’s services business is more profitable than its products segment. The company has been advancing in the attractive financial services market through solutions like Apple Pay and Apple Wallet.Back in June, Apple announced that it will launch a buy now, pay later service called Apple Pay Later. The facility will allow customers to split their purchase into four equal payments that can be spread over six weeks. Earlier this year, Apple rolled out its Tap to Pay on iPhone feature that enables contactless payments.Is Apple a Buy or Sell Now?In a recent research note to investors, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives noted that the iPhone 14 is likely witnessing “brisk sales” as wait times are getting longer. The analyst stated, “Wait times on many iPhone Pro 14 models are now 4-6 weeks for Apple customers and lengthening into November.” Ives stated that the overall demand for Pro is 8% to 10% ahead of his expectations.The analyst also sees strong sales in China, mainly via e-commerce channels. He expects China’s business to be a vital factor in Apple’s growth story and estimates that nearly 30% of iPhone customers in China “are in the window of an upgrade opportunity.”Despite macro pressures, Ives believes that Apple’s growth story “remains a bright spot in the tech landscape with darker clouds abound in many pockets of consumer tech.” Ives reiterated a Buy rating on AAPL stock with a price target of $220.All in all, Apple scores the Street’s Strong Buy consensus rating based on 23 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell rating. The average Apple price target of $183.45 suggests nearly 22% upside potential from current levels.ConclusionDespite macro pressures, Apple seems to be an attractive pick for the long haul based on strengths like continued innovation, solid growth potential for the services business, and strong execution.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911829768,"gmtCreate":1664176126654,"gmtModify":1676537403373,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911829768","repostId":"2270412558","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270412558","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664154917,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270412558?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Is Reeling. Here's What Could Stop the Pain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270412558","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"After one of the worst weeks for the stock market in 2022, two factors could swing the market over t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>After one of the worst weeks for the stock market in 2022, two factors could swing the market over the next few days and set investors up for a tumultuous fourth quarter.</p><p>The market is reeling after a broad selloff on Friday, capping off a two-week swoon that took the S&amp;P 500 down 9.2%, to 3693. The index is down 23% from its January peak. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that the Fed’s primary concern is inflation, and the central bank is willing to impose financial pain to bring it down. Investors are increasingly believing him.</p><p>That means that the market is likely to swing on two main themes over the next few weeks—inflation data and any hints of what the Fed plans to do in their next few meetings. In the next week, more of those hints could be on their way.</p><p>Investors will hear from quite a few Fed officials and will be watching closely for language that indicates any splits among the board members. Twelve of the 19 Fed governors and presidents are speaking this coming week, “with virtually all appearances potentially touching on the economic outlook or monetary policy,” notes Deutsche Bank economists led by Brett Ryan.</p><p>While all of the Fed members appear intent on continuing to increase rates from the current 3.0%-3.25% range, there are important disagreements too. For instance, the “dot-plots” that track where Fed officials see economic data and interest rates in the future show that members are evenly split between those who expect Federal Funds rates to peak at 4.75% next year, and those who see 4.5% and 4.25% as the top rates. Those might seem like relatively small differences, but they could make a big difference in the market, given how closely investors are watching rates. If Fed officials start leaning toward more dovish policy—raising interest rates more gradually—the market is likely to rise. But that still feels like a long shot. Deutsche Bank, for its part, expects rates will have to rise to 5%, which would likely be a negative for investors.</p><p>Powell himself will appear twice in the coming week. “All three members of Fed leadership will speak, with Powell taking part in a panel on digital currencies on Tuesday and on Wednesday giving welcoming remarks at a community banking conference, at which Gov. Bowman will also appear,” Ryan wrote.</p><p>In addition, there will be some data releases that could impact the market. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its third estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, and potentially revise some older figures too. Because it’s a backward-looking number, GDP often doesn’t move the market much. But any further sign that the economy is already in recession could impact investor sentiment. It could also impact the Fed’s willingness to plunge the economy into a deeper recession if it becomes more clear that a recession has begun. The last estimate of second-quarter GDP was a decline of 0.6%, following a 1.3% decline in the first quarter.</p><p>New data on durable goods, consumption, and other economic activity will also help forecasters estimate third-quarter gross domestic product. Another quarter of declines would make it more clear that the economy is already in recession—and test the Fed’s willingness to make the economic pain worse.</p><p>The biggest news is likely to come on Friday, though. The BEA will release the personal-consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation that the Fed watches closely. That index rose 6.8% year over year in June—its highest level since 1982—and moderated to 6.3% in July. The core PCE index, taking out food and energy, was up 4.6%. Analysts expect the core PCE to rise 4.7% in August.</p><p>Even with all these Fed officials planning to speak and important data releases, it’s unlikely that there will be enough clarity in the coming week about the path of rate hikes to determine where stocks will head for the rest of the year. Goldman Sachs on Friday reduced its 2022 S&amp;P 500 target to 3,600 from 4,300—another sign that Wall Street does not see a near-term reprieve for the market.</p><p>“Over the next couple of weeks, long-term investors may hesitate buying into weakness because it doesn’t seem like any economic data release or Fed speak will convince markets that a downshift from this aggressive tightening campaign will be happening anytime soon,” wrote Oanda analyst Edward Moya. “Downside targets for the S&amp;P 500 include the 3,470 level, which might look attractive for some long-term investors.”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Is Reeling. Here's What Could Stop the Pain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Is Reeling. Here's What Could Stop the Pain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-26 09:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>After one of the worst weeks for the stock market in 2022, two factors could swing the market over the next few days and set investors up for a tumultuous fourth quarter.</p><p>The market is reeling after a broad selloff on Friday, capping off a two-week swoon that took the S&amp;P 500 down 9.2%, to 3693. The index is down 23% from its January peak. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that the Fed’s primary concern is inflation, and the central bank is willing to impose financial pain to bring it down. Investors are increasingly believing him.</p><p>That means that the market is likely to swing on two main themes over the next few weeks—inflation data and any hints of what the Fed plans to do in their next few meetings. In the next week, more of those hints could be on their way.</p><p>Investors will hear from quite a few Fed officials and will be watching closely for language that indicates any splits among the board members. Twelve of the 19 Fed governors and presidents are speaking this coming week, “with virtually all appearances potentially touching on the economic outlook or monetary policy,” notes Deutsche Bank economists led by Brett Ryan.</p><p>While all of the Fed members appear intent on continuing to increase rates from the current 3.0%-3.25% range, there are important disagreements too. For instance, the “dot-plots” that track where Fed officials see economic data and interest rates in the future show that members are evenly split between those who expect Federal Funds rates to peak at 4.75% next year, and those who see 4.5% and 4.25% as the top rates. Those might seem like relatively small differences, but they could make a big difference in the market, given how closely investors are watching rates. If Fed officials start leaning toward more dovish policy—raising interest rates more gradually—the market is likely to rise. But that still feels like a long shot. Deutsche Bank, for its part, expects rates will have to rise to 5%, which would likely be a negative for investors.</p><p>Powell himself will appear twice in the coming week. “All three members of Fed leadership will speak, with Powell taking part in a panel on digital currencies on Tuesday and on Wednesday giving welcoming remarks at a community banking conference, at which Gov. Bowman will also appear,” Ryan wrote.</p><p>In addition, there will be some data releases that could impact the market. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its third estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, and potentially revise some older figures too. Because it’s a backward-looking number, GDP often doesn’t move the market much. But any further sign that the economy is already in recession could impact investor sentiment. It could also impact the Fed’s willingness to plunge the economy into a deeper recession if it becomes more clear that a recession has begun. The last estimate of second-quarter GDP was a decline of 0.6%, following a 1.3% decline in the first quarter.</p><p>New data on durable goods, consumption, and other economic activity will also help forecasters estimate third-quarter gross domestic product. Another quarter of declines would make it more clear that the economy is already in recession—and test the Fed’s willingness to make the economic pain worse.</p><p>The biggest news is likely to come on Friday, though. The BEA will release the personal-consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation that the Fed watches closely. That index rose 6.8% year over year in June—its highest level since 1982—and moderated to 6.3% in July. The core PCE index, taking out food and energy, was up 4.6%. Analysts expect the core PCE to rise 4.7% in August.</p><p>Even with all these Fed officials planning to speak and important data releases, it’s unlikely that there will be enough clarity in the coming week about the path of rate hikes to determine where stocks will head for the rest of the year. Goldman Sachs on Friday reduced its 2022 S&amp;P 500 target to 3,600 from 4,300—another sign that Wall Street does not see a near-term reprieve for the market.</p><p>“Over the next couple of weeks, long-term investors may hesitate buying into weakness because it doesn’t seem like any economic data release or Fed speak will convince markets that a downshift from this aggressive tightening campaign will be happening anytime soon,” wrote Oanda analyst Edward Moya. “Downside targets for the S&amp;P 500 include the 3,470 level, which might look attractive for some long-term investors.”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270412558","content_text":"After one of the worst weeks for the stock market in 2022, two factors could swing the market over the next few days and set investors up for a tumultuous fourth quarter.The market is reeling after a broad selloff on Friday, capping off a two-week swoon that took the S&P 500 down 9.2%, to 3693. The index is down 23% from its January peak. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that the Fed’s primary concern is inflation, and the central bank is willing to impose financial pain to bring it down. Investors are increasingly believing him.That means that the market is likely to swing on two main themes over the next few weeks—inflation data and any hints of what the Fed plans to do in their next few meetings. In the next week, more of those hints could be on their way.Investors will hear from quite a few Fed officials and will be watching closely for language that indicates any splits among the board members. Twelve of the 19 Fed governors and presidents are speaking this coming week, “with virtually all appearances potentially touching on the economic outlook or monetary policy,” notes Deutsche Bank economists led by Brett Ryan.While all of the Fed members appear intent on continuing to increase rates from the current 3.0%-3.25% range, there are important disagreements too. For instance, the “dot-plots” that track where Fed officials see economic data and interest rates in the future show that members are evenly split between those who expect Federal Funds rates to peak at 4.75% next year, and those who see 4.5% and 4.25% as the top rates. Those might seem like relatively small differences, but they could make a big difference in the market, given how closely investors are watching rates. If Fed officials start leaning toward more dovish policy—raising interest rates more gradually—the market is likely to rise. But that still feels like a long shot. Deutsche Bank, for its part, expects rates will have to rise to 5%, which would likely be a negative for investors.Powell himself will appear twice in the coming week. “All three members of Fed leadership will speak, with Powell taking part in a panel on digital currencies on Tuesday and on Wednesday giving welcoming remarks at a community banking conference, at which Gov. Bowman will also appear,” Ryan wrote.In addition, there will be some data releases that could impact the market. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its third estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product, and potentially revise some older figures too. Because it’s a backward-looking number, GDP often doesn’t move the market much. But any further sign that the economy is already in recession could impact investor sentiment. It could also impact the Fed’s willingness to plunge the economy into a deeper recession if it becomes more clear that a recession has begun. The last estimate of second-quarter GDP was a decline of 0.6%, following a 1.3% decline in the first quarter.New data on durable goods, consumption, and other economic activity will also help forecasters estimate third-quarter gross domestic product. Another quarter of declines would make it more clear that the economy is already in recession—and test the Fed’s willingness to make the economic pain worse.The biggest news is likely to come on Friday, though. The BEA will release the personal-consumption expenditures price index, a key measure of inflation that the Fed watches closely. That index rose 6.8% year over year in June—its highest level since 1982—and moderated to 6.3% in July. The core PCE index, taking out food and energy, was up 4.6%. Analysts expect the core PCE to rise 4.7% in August.Even with all these Fed officials planning to speak and important data releases, it’s unlikely that there will be enough clarity in the coming week about the path of rate hikes to determine where stocks will head for the rest of the year. Goldman Sachs on Friday reduced its 2022 S&P 500 target to 3,600 from 4,300—another sign that Wall Street does not see a near-term reprieve for the market.“Over the next couple of weeks, long-term investors may hesitate buying into weakness because it doesn’t seem like any economic data release or Fed speak will convince markets that a downshift from this aggressive tightening campaign will be happening anytime soon,” wrote Oanda analyst Edward Moya. “Downside targets for the S&P 500 include the 3,470 level, which might look attractive for some long-term investors.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":0.61,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911902132,"gmtCreate":1664104803126,"gmtModify":1676537391044,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911902132","repostId":"2269490734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269490734","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664066508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269490734?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269490734","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-25 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269490734","content_text":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market's decline this past week following the Federal Reserve's most recent interest-rate hike announcement.To show why higher interest rates aren't necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model's track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market's subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University's finance professor Robert Shiller.In other words, the ability to predict the stock market's five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.Money illusionThese results are so surprising that it's important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years' corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it's only half the story.The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as \"inflation illusion\" -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.According to research conducted by Warr, inflation's impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed's latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.None of this means that the bear market shouldn't continue, or that equities aren't overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913355644,"gmtCreate":1663921011589,"gmtModify":1676537363736,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913355644","repostId":"1176566845","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176566845","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663915664,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176566845?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-23 14:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Using SPY Put Options For Portfolio Protection","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176566845","media":"Barchart","summary":"Options can be used to generate extra income like in Mondays article on oil stocks. But they can als","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Options can be used to generate extra income like in Mondays article on oil stocks. But they can also be used to protect a stock holding from a large drop in price.</p><p>With the stock market looking bearish here, it might be time to look at buying some protection on stocks that we don&#39;t necessarily want to sell.</p><p>A put option is a financial contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell a certain underlying asset at a certain price on or before expiration.</p><p>For this right, the buyer of the put option pays a premium to the option seller. Think of it like buying insurance against your house burning down.</p><p>You as the homeowner pay the insurance premium. And the options seller is like the insurance company.</p><p>Owning a put option gives the owner the right to sell their stock at a certain price, no matter how low it goes. The downside is protected while the investor still gets to benefit in the upside.</p><p>Let&#39;s assume we own a portfolio of stocks that we don&#39;t want to sell but are concerned about the short-term prospects.</p><p>Instead of liquidating our portfolio, we could buy put options on the Spdr S&amp;P 500 (SPY) to help cushion the effects of any downturn.</p><p>Yesterday, with the SPY trading around 374, a December 16th expiration put with a strike price of 350 could be purchased for $9.05 per contract.</p><p>That would be $905 in total for a block of 100 shares.</p><p>The break-even price for the put option would be 340.95 and can be calculated by taking the strike price (350) and subtracting the premium paid ($9.05).</p><p>Buying some protection like this can be expensive, but it can also help us sleep a little better at night if we are concerned about a large drop in stocks over the next month.</p><p>This December 350 put option has a notional delta of -27,000. That simply means that it will roughly hedge the price risk of a $27,000 portfolio of stocks.</p><p>However, it&#39;s never perfect. You could find yourself in a position where the stocks you own drop but SPY stock rallies, in which case the hedge would not work at all.</p><p>Put options can help protect against large price declines and are an important risk management tool for investors.</p><h3>Try A Bear Put Spread Instead</h3><p>The cost of the long put could be reduced by turning it into a bear put spread. This can be done by selling a further out-of-the-money put.</p><p>For example, the December 310 strike put option could be sold yesterday for around $2.83. Selling this put would reduce the overall hedge cost by $283.</p><p>However, this would also limit the benefits of the protection below 310. The notional delta would also be reduced from -27,000 to around -18,000.</p><p>Please remember that options are risky, and investors can lose 100% of their investment. This article is for education purposes only and not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Using SPY Put Options For Portfolio Protection</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUsing SPY Put Options For Portfolio Protection\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-23 14:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barchart.com/story/news/10359294/using-spy-put-options-for-portfolio-protection><strong>Barchart</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Options can be used to generate extra income like in Mondays article on oil stocks. But they can also be used to protect a stock holding from a large drop in price.With the stock market looking ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barchart.com/story/news/10359294/using-spy-put-options-for-portfolio-protection\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barchart.com/story/news/10359294/using-spy-put-options-for-portfolio-protection","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176566845","content_text":"Options can be used to generate extra income like in Mondays article on oil stocks. But they can also be used to protect a stock holding from a large drop in price.With the stock market looking bearish here, it might be time to look at buying some protection on stocks that we don't necessarily want to sell.A put option is a financial contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell a certain underlying asset at a certain price on or before expiration.For this right, the buyer of the put option pays a premium to the option seller. Think of it like buying insurance against your house burning down.You as the homeowner pay the insurance premium. And the options seller is like the insurance company.Owning a put option gives the owner the right to sell their stock at a certain price, no matter how low it goes. The downside is protected while the investor still gets to benefit in the upside.Let's assume we own a portfolio of stocks that we don't want to sell but are concerned about the short-term prospects.Instead of liquidating our portfolio, we could buy put options on the Spdr S&P 500 (SPY) to help cushion the effects of any downturn.Yesterday, with the SPY trading around 374, a December 16th expiration put with a strike price of 350 could be purchased for $9.05 per contract.That would be $905 in total for a block of 100 shares.The break-even price for the put option would be 340.95 and can be calculated by taking the strike price (350) and subtracting the premium paid ($9.05).Buying some protection like this can be expensive, but it can also help us sleep a little better at night if we are concerned about a large drop in stocks over the next month.This December 350 put option has a notional delta of -27,000. That simply means that it will roughly hedge the price risk of a $27,000 portfolio of stocks.However, it's never perfect. You could find yourself in a position where the stocks you own drop but SPY stock rallies, in which case the hedge would not work at all.Put options can help protect against large price declines and are an important risk management tool for investors.Try A Bear Put Spread InsteadThe cost of the long put could be reduced by turning it into a bear put spread. This can be done by selling a further out-of-the-money put.For example, the December 310 strike put option could be sold yesterday for around $2.83. Selling this put would reduce the overall hedge cost by $283.However, this would also limit the benefits of the protection below 310. The notional delta would also be reduced from -27,000 to around -18,000.Please remember that options are risky, and investors can lose 100% of their investment. This article is for education purposes only and not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919117732,"gmtCreate":1663751615026,"gmtModify":1676537329347,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919117732","repostId":"2269907879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910428114,"gmtCreate":1663668755239,"gmtModify":1676537312198,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910428114","repostId":"1182636577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182636577","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663661541,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182636577?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 16:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182636577","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSStitch Fix and Lennar report earnings this week. They're vulnerable now.The Merge wasn't enough to save Coinbase last week, and this week might not get any easier.Stocks historically move ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/19/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-20 16:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/19/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSStitch Fix and Lennar report earnings this week. They're vulnerable now.The Merge wasn't enough to save Coinbase last week, and this week might not get any easier.Stocks historically move ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/19/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LEN":"莱纳建筑公司","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/19/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182636577","content_text":"KEY POINTSStitch Fix and Lennar report earnings this week. They're vulnerable now.The Merge wasn't enough to save Coinbase last week, and this week might not get any easier.Stocks historically move higher, but Stitch Fix, Lennar, and Coinbase might fail to beat the market this week.One bad call can ruin your week. The \"three stocks to avoid\" in my column last week that I thought were going to lose to the market -- Latch, InnovAge Holding, and Coinbase Gloal -- fell 7%, soared 46%, and sank 8%, respectively, averaging out to a 10.3% gain.The S&P 500 experienced a 4.8% move lower, so I was wrong, but I have still been right in 30 of the past 48 weeks.Now let's look at the week ahead. I see Stitch Fix, Lennar, and, again, Coinbase as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.1. Stitch FixOffering stylist-curated outfits by mail hasn't been a very good business model lately. Stitch Fix has posted four consecutive quarters of sharply decelerating revenue growth, clocking in with a decline in revenue in its latest report. This is horrible momentum heading into the fiscal fourth-quarter numbers that it will announce on Tuesday afternoon.If the business was slowing as we clawed our way out of the pandemic, how do you think Stitch Fix will hold up now that folks are spending less money outside of food essentials? The model has gone through some changes, but it can't seem to gain traction with poorly dressed folks who would appreciate having fashionistas on their side.The balance sheet is still in decent shape, but analysts don't see Stitch Fix turning a profit until at lest fiscal 2027. With the model being upended, it's hard to picture anything positive emerging out of this week's financial update.2. LennarStitch Fix isn't the only company reporting what could be problematic quarterly results. A couple of homebuilders will be reporting results on Wednesday, and Lennar is one that could disappoint the market. The Florida homebuilder has feasted from the red-hot housing market that has been particularly scintillating in the Sunshine State. The near-term outlook won't be so great.Borrowing costs are rising. The inventory of available homes across the country is shooting higher. Sellers are slashing their asking prices. All three of these new realities will eat into Lennar's business.The single-digit trailing-earnings multiples you see across the industry are a facade. Analysts already see Lennar's revenue and earnings per share declining 7% and 11%, respectively, next year. It could be a lot worse than that if the real estate market continues to go the wrong way.This week's report might not be horrible, but its guidance should be cautious -- and that could be enough to spook investors.3. CoinbaseSingling out Coinbase as a stock to avoid last week paid off. Shares of the country's leading crypto exchange tumbled 10%, more than double the overall market's slide. I don't usually repeat a pick after it takes a hit, but I think there could be more near-term pain here.The Merge -- the successful migration of Ethereum to the more efficient proof-of-stake protocol -- didn't ease the crypto bear market last week. What's the next lever to get digital currencies rolling again? Traders are cooling on Coinbase. The $803 million it generated in revenue in its latest quarter is less than a third (yes, less than a third) of what it served up just two reports earlier.It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Stitch Fix, Lennar, and Coinbase this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LEN":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910196486,"gmtCreate":1663570704946,"gmtModify":1676537292839,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910196486","repostId":"1177047620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177047620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663570508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177047620?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500: There Will Be Blood","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177047620","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 and stocks, in general, are dropping again.Despite an optimistic run in the summe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 and stocks, in general, are dropping again.</li><li>Despite an optimistic run in the summer, the reality is setting in once again.</li><li>Inflation is more persistent than expected, and the Fed likely has to do much more tightening.</li><li>Many stocks are still expensive, and valuations remain relatively high.</li><li>The ultimate bottom for the S&amp;P 500 may come at 3,000 or lower. I am hedging and buying high-quality stocks on big dips.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500/SPX (SP500) hit a low of around 3,640 in mid-June, roughly a 25% drop from the top. Then, we saw a significant counter-trend rally into mid-August. However, despite the late summer stock market optimism, it&#39;s doubtful that the bear market is over. Recent inflation numbers illustrate that the economic climate remains highly challenging, and the Fed needs to do more. Unfortunately, interest rates are moving higher, and stocks will probably continue dropping.</p><p>Moreover, we haven&#39;t seen many of the hallmark signs of a long-term bottom. There should be more blood in the streets, and the ultimate bear market bottom could arrive at around 3,000 in the S&amp;P 500 in a base case outcome. I&#39;m capitalizing on the volatility by hedging and buying high-quality stocks on big dips.</p><p>The Technical Image - Very Bearish Now</p><p><b>SPX 1-Year Chart</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86a0e3641f8acc8cb2a23a7d95ff08fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SPX(StockCharts.com )</p><p>The S&amp;P 500&#39;s bear market began right around the start of 2022. Since the bearish trend began, we&#39;ve seen a series of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent high occurred in mid-August when I put out a near-term top alert. Now, things are becoming more bearish. After the recent high, the market attempted to rebound but got smacked down by Jerome Powell&#39;s Jackson Hole remarks. More recently, the market tried to muster another rally, but the higher-than-anticipated inflation numbers brought a quick end to that attempt.</p><p>Now, we&#39;re looking at an increasingly bearish technical image as the SPX is putting in a pessimistic head and shoulders pattern and is on the verge of busting through critical 3,900 support. Once below this level, the S&amp;P 500 should at least retest the prior low around 3,700-3,600. However, a likelier scenario is that the S&amp;P will make a lower low, dropping the SPX down into the 3,400-3,000 range next.</p><h2>What Do Jackson Hole And Inflation Have In Common?</h2><p>At Jackson Hole, we learned just how intent the Fed is on battling inflation and how bearish this phenomenon is for the stock market. I wrote about the Fed&#39;s bearish symposium several weeks ago. The key takeaway from Chair Powell&#39;s speech is that inflation is much more persistent and challenging to deal with than previously expected. The Fed must do much more to lower inflation. The dynamic of high-interest rates, slower growth, and a worsening labor market will bring substantial pain to households and businesses.</p><p>Now, Let&#39;s Look At Inflation</p><p><b>CPI Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e415ae81767865727859c61ace2822d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CPI inflation(TradingEconomics.com )</p><p>While inflation has decreased from the 9.1% reading, it remains remarkably high. Inflation is running hotter than we&#39;ve seen in about 40 years now. The primary issue is that the Fed has been raising interest rates and implementing other tightening measures like QT, but we&#39;re seeing a minimal effect on inflation. Therefore, the Fed needs to do more. However, more tightening will further constrict economic growth and decrease consumer confidence. Additionally, higher inflation, lower growth, and worsening spending negatively impact corporate profits and should lead to more pain as we advance.</p><h2>Don&#39;t Fight The Fed</h2><p>Wise people have told me, &#34;you don&#39;t fight the Fed.&#34; You don&#39;t want to fight the Fed when the central bank is easing. We saw ultra-loose monetary policy since the 2008 financial crisis, and stocks did great for much of that time. However, we are in a completely different economic environment now. As the Fed pulls liquidity out of markets, the cost of borrowing increases, growth slows, sentiment worsens, and risk assets deflate. Furthermore, we&#39;ve underestimated the severity of the inflation problem and the Fed&#39;s commitment to making it &#34;go away.&#34;</p><p><b>Rate Probabilities</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e5b344a6418c8597ba3e52b0570b80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Fed Watch(CMEGroup.com )</p><p>Just one month ago, the market expected a 50 basis point hike at the upcoming Fed meeting. There is about a 25% probability that we may see a 100 basis point move. Whether we see a 75 basis point hike or a full 1% increase next week is not that relevant. The fact is that the Fed is intent on increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. Unfortunately, the benchmark will be above 3% after next week&#39;s meeting. With rates at such elevated levels, economic growth will weaken further, and there is no telling when the inflation problem may end.</p><h2>Uncertainty Ahead For Stocks</h2><p>There is increased uncertainty surrounding inflation, growth, Fed tightening, the consumer, recession, corporate earnings, and much more. Typically, I would say that the stock market will climb the wall of worry, but this wall of worry may be too high to climb.</p><p>One of the most troubling factors is that we don&#39;t know how deep the downturn will cut into corporate results. We already see declining revenues, worsening margins, and fewer profits at major corporations. However, these declines could continue, and future downward earnings revisions could persist. Additionally, valuations remain relatively high, and this dynamic could mean lower stock prices before this bear market gets sorted out.</p><h2>The Valuation Dynamic</h2><p><b>The Shiller P/E Ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6272d7dbe21608d8468cf653f5ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Shiller P/E ratio(multpl.com)</p><p>We see the Shiller P/E coming down lately, but the drop has just begun. We can see that once the Shiller P/E drops, it rarely stops until a relatively low has been achieved. We should see the CAPE P/E ratio decline as the economy weakens, earnings decrease, and valuations come down. A reasonably conservative target could be a Shiller P/E ratio of approximately 20. While the historical mean is only 17, the market has become accustomed to higher P/E ratio valuations in recent years. Therefore, we may see increased buy interest around the 20 level, if the SPX doesn&#39;t overshoot to the downside. A decline to a 20 Shiller P/E ratio would equate to an approximately 28% drop from current levels, roughly coinciding with the 2,800 level in the S&amp;P 500. Therefore, my ultimate bottom in the S&amp;P 500 target remains at 3,000. However, the market may overshoot lower into the 2,800-2,400 range in a bearish case outcome.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500: There Will Be Blood</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500: There Will Be Blood\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-19 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541687-sp-500-there-will-be-blood><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 and stocks, in general, are dropping again.Despite an optimistic run in the summer, the reality is setting in once again.Inflation is more persistent than expected, and the Fed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541687-sp-500-there-will-be-blood\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541687-sp-500-there-will-be-blood","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177047620","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 and stocks, in general, are dropping again.Despite an optimistic run in the summer, the reality is setting in once again.Inflation is more persistent than expected, and the Fed likely has to do much more tightening.Many stocks are still expensive, and valuations remain relatively high.The ultimate bottom for the S&P 500 may come at 3,000 or lower. I am hedging and buying high-quality stocks on big dips.The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) hit a low of around 3,640 in mid-June, roughly a 25% drop from the top. Then, we saw a significant counter-trend rally into mid-August. However, despite the late summer stock market optimism, it's doubtful that the bear market is over. Recent inflation numbers illustrate that the economic climate remains highly challenging, and the Fed needs to do more. Unfortunately, interest rates are moving higher, and stocks will probably continue dropping.Moreover, we haven't seen many of the hallmark signs of a long-term bottom. There should be more blood in the streets, and the ultimate bear market bottom could arrive at around 3,000 in the S&P 500 in a base case outcome. I'm capitalizing on the volatility by hedging and buying high-quality stocks on big dips.The Technical Image - Very Bearish NowSPX 1-Year ChartSPX(StockCharts.com )The S&P 500's bear market began right around the start of 2022. Since the bearish trend began, we've seen a series of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent high occurred in mid-August when I put out a near-term top alert. Now, things are becoming more bearish. After the recent high, the market attempted to rebound but got smacked down by Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole remarks. More recently, the market tried to muster another rally, but the higher-than-anticipated inflation numbers brought a quick end to that attempt.Now, we're looking at an increasingly bearish technical image as the SPX is putting in a pessimistic head and shoulders pattern and is on the verge of busting through critical 3,900 support. Once below this level, the S&P 500 should at least retest the prior low around 3,700-3,600. However, a likelier scenario is that the S&P will make a lower low, dropping the SPX down into the 3,400-3,000 range next.What Do Jackson Hole And Inflation Have In Common?At Jackson Hole, we learned just how intent the Fed is on battling inflation and how bearish this phenomenon is for the stock market. I wrote about the Fed's bearish symposium several weeks ago. The key takeaway from Chair Powell's speech is that inflation is much more persistent and challenging to deal with than previously expected. The Fed must do much more to lower inflation. The dynamic of high-interest rates, slower growth, and a worsening labor market will bring substantial pain to households and businesses.Now, Let's Look At InflationCPI InflationCPI inflation(TradingEconomics.com )While inflation has decreased from the 9.1% reading, it remains remarkably high. Inflation is running hotter than we've seen in about 40 years now. The primary issue is that the Fed has been raising interest rates and implementing other tightening measures like QT, but we're seeing a minimal effect on inflation. Therefore, the Fed needs to do more. However, more tightening will further constrict economic growth and decrease consumer confidence. Additionally, higher inflation, lower growth, and worsening spending negatively impact corporate profits and should lead to more pain as we advance.Don't Fight The FedWise people have told me, \"you don't fight the Fed.\" You don't want to fight the Fed when the central bank is easing. We saw ultra-loose monetary policy since the 2008 financial crisis, and stocks did great for much of that time. However, we are in a completely different economic environment now. As the Fed pulls liquidity out of markets, the cost of borrowing increases, growth slows, sentiment worsens, and risk assets deflate. Furthermore, we've underestimated the severity of the inflation problem and the Fed's commitment to making it \"go away.\"Rate ProbabilitiesFed Watch(CMEGroup.com )Just one month ago, the market expected a 50 basis point hike at the upcoming Fed meeting. There is about a 25% probability that we may see a 100 basis point move. Whether we see a 75 basis point hike or a full 1% increase next week is not that relevant. The fact is that the Fed is intent on increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. Unfortunately, the benchmark will be above 3% after next week's meeting. With rates at such elevated levels, economic growth will weaken further, and there is no telling when the inflation problem may end.Uncertainty Ahead For StocksThere is increased uncertainty surrounding inflation, growth, Fed tightening, the consumer, recession, corporate earnings, and much more. Typically, I would say that the stock market will climb the wall of worry, but this wall of worry may be too high to climb.One of the most troubling factors is that we don't know how deep the downturn will cut into corporate results. We already see declining revenues, worsening margins, and fewer profits at major corporations. However, these declines could continue, and future downward earnings revisions could persist. Additionally, valuations remain relatively high, and this dynamic could mean lower stock prices before this bear market gets sorted out.The Valuation DynamicThe Shiller P/E RatioShiller P/E ratio(multpl.com)We see the Shiller P/E coming down lately, but the drop has just begun. We can see that once the Shiller P/E drops, it rarely stops until a relatively low has been achieved. We should see the CAPE P/E ratio decline as the economy weakens, earnings decrease, and valuations come down. A reasonably conservative target could be a Shiller P/E ratio of approximately 20. While the historical mean is only 17, the market has become accustomed to higher P/E ratio valuations in recent years. Therefore, we may see increased buy interest around the 20 level, if the SPX doesn't overshoot to the downside. A decline to a 20 Shiller P/E ratio would equate to an approximately 28% drop from current levels, roughly coinciding with the 2,800 level in the S&P 500. Therefore, my ultimate bottom in the S&P 500 target remains at 3,000. However, the market may overshoot lower into the 2,800-2,400 range in a bearish case outcome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937423071,"gmtCreate":1663484915794,"gmtModify":1676537278090,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[USD]&nbsp;","listText":"[USD]&nbsp;","text":"[USD]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937423071","repostId":"2268672370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268672370","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663460267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268672370?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268672370","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hike</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4166c0ac7b0bdf7caa1837ef618a67\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.</span></p><p>The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.</p><p>“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.</p><p>U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.</p><p>A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.</p><p>Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.</p><p>Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.</p><p>The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.</p><p>Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.</p><p>William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”</p><p>Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.</p><p>“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.</p><p>The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.</p><p>The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&amp;P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.</p><p>“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.</p><p>“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 08:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268672370","content_text":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937840135,"gmtCreate":1663401590927,"gmtModify":1676537266210,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937840135","repostId":"2268894612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268894612","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663366700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268894612?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 06:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why FedEx’s Stock Plunge Is so Bad for the Whole Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268894612","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Dow Theory ‘sell’ signal is halfway complete, as Dow transports fall below the June low, but Dow ind","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Dow Theory ‘sell’ signal is halfway complete, as Dow transports fall below the June low, but Dow industrials are still above</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9328334e05dc0ed5df3ac2d312f2afcb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>(Photo by Michael Smith/Getty Images) GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>FedEx Corp.’s profit warning has cast a pall on the broader stock market, as a record plunge in the package delivery giant’s stock has helped trigger one half of a Dow Theory “sell” signal.</p><p>FedEx shares fell 21.4% to a two-year closing low of $161.02. The $43.85 price decline shaved about 267 points off the Dow Jones Transportation Average, accounting for more than one-third of the Dow transports’ 685.39-point, or 5.1% drop, to 12,825.34.</p><p>The transportation sector tracker broke below its June 17 closing low of 12,868.60, which at the time marked the lowest close in 16 months.</p><p>The Dow transports’ selloff has sent an important message about the health of the broader stock market, given that the index is viewed by many as a leading economic indicator. There’s a saying on Wall Street that the companies in the Dow transports “take” to buyers what the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average “make.”</p><p>Basically, if transports aren’t taking, the economy isn’t moving, and the stock market will be falling.</p><p>The Dow transports’ new low follows a big 18.2% bounce off the June low to the mid-August closing high of 15,209.96. But since that high was well below the first recovery high seen in March of 16,718.54, which in turn was below the November 2021 record close of 17,039.38, the index has continued a pattern of lower lows and lower highs, which many Wall Street chart watchers say defines a bear market.</p><p>And perhaps more significantly, the lower low completes one half of a “sell” signal, according to some followers of the century-old Dow Theory of market analysis.</p><p>As Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch contributor and founder of Hulbert Ratings LLC, has written, many agree that there are three key ingredients to a Dow Theory “sell” signal.</p><p>First, the Dow industrials and Dow transports must suffer significant selloffs after reaching new highs — Check. The respective June closing lows marked a 24.4% decline in the Dow transports from its record close in November and an 18.8% drop in the Dow industrials from a January record close.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08496542bc0255e974b525be5c16073d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FACTSET, MARKETWATCH</span></p><p>Second, significant rallies off the respective lows fail to reach the previous highs — Check. The Dow transports bounced 18.2% off its June low, and the Dow industrials bounced 14.3%, to the mid-August highs, but those highs were well below the respective previous highs.</p><p>And third, both indexes fall below the lows referenced in the “First” ingredient — the indexes are halfway there.</p><p>The Dow transports have checked that box, but the Dow industrials, which slumped 139.40 points, or 0.5%, to 30,822.42 on Friday, were still more than 900 points above the June 17 closing low of 29,888.78.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why FedEx’s Stock Plunge Is so Bad for the Whole Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy FedEx’s Stock Plunge Is so Bad for the Whole Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 06:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-fedexs-stock-plunge-is-so-bad-for-the-whole-stock-market-11663352650?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dow Theory ‘sell’ signal is halfway complete, as Dow transports fall below the June low, but Dow industrials are still above(Photo by Michael Smith/Getty Images) GETTY IMAGESFedEx Corp.’s profit ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-fedexs-stock-plunge-is-so-bad-for-the-whole-stock-market-11663352650?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","FDX":"联邦快递",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-fedexs-stock-plunge-is-so-bad-for-the-whole-stock-market-11663352650?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268894612","content_text":"Dow Theory ‘sell’ signal is halfway complete, as Dow transports fall below the June low, but Dow industrials are still above(Photo by Michael Smith/Getty Images) GETTY IMAGESFedEx Corp.’s profit warning has cast a pall on the broader stock market, as a record plunge in the package delivery giant’s stock has helped trigger one half of a Dow Theory “sell” signal.FedEx shares fell 21.4% to a two-year closing low of $161.02. The $43.85 price decline shaved about 267 points off the Dow Jones Transportation Average, accounting for more than one-third of the Dow transports’ 685.39-point, or 5.1% drop, to 12,825.34.The transportation sector tracker broke below its June 17 closing low of 12,868.60, which at the time marked the lowest close in 16 months.The Dow transports’ selloff has sent an important message about the health of the broader stock market, given that the index is viewed by many as a leading economic indicator. There’s a saying on Wall Street that the companies in the Dow transports “take” to buyers what the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average “make.”Basically, if transports aren’t taking, the economy isn’t moving, and the stock market will be falling.The Dow transports’ new low follows a big 18.2% bounce off the June low to the mid-August closing high of 15,209.96. But since that high was well below the first recovery high seen in March of 16,718.54, which in turn was below the November 2021 record close of 17,039.38, the index has continued a pattern of lower lows and lower highs, which many Wall Street chart watchers say defines a bear market.And perhaps more significantly, the lower low completes one half of a “sell” signal, according to some followers of the century-old Dow Theory of market analysis.As Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch contributor and founder of Hulbert Ratings LLC, has written, many agree that there are three key ingredients to a Dow Theory “sell” signal.First, the Dow industrials and Dow transports must suffer significant selloffs after reaching new highs — Check. The respective June closing lows marked a 24.4% decline in the Dow transports from its record close in November and an 18.8% drop in the Dow industrials from a January record close.FACTSET, MARKETWATCHSecond, significant rallies off the respective lows fail to reach the previous highs — Check. The Dow transports bounced 18.2% off its June low, and the Dow industrials bounced 14.3%, to the mid-August highs, but those highs were well below the respective previous highs.And third, both indexes fall below the lows referenced in the “First” ingredient — the indexes are halfway there.The Dow transports have checked that box, but the Dow industrials, which slumped 139.40 points, or 0.5%, to 30,822.42 on Friday, were still more than 900 points above the June 17 closing low of 29,888.78.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"FDX":1,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937036770,"gmtCreate":1663317288691,"gmtModify":1676537251183,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937036770","repostId":"1183623234","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934694475,"gmtCreate":1663233460098,"gmtModify":1676537233321,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934694475","repostId":"1105919895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105919895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663255268,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105919895?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105919895","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"$Nio(NIO)$ stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk i","content":"<div>\n<p>Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Latest NIO Stock Surge Will Be Short-Lived\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/09/beware-the-latest-nio-stock-surge-will-be-short-lived/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105919895","content_text":"Nio stock back above $20 per share after analyst upgrades.Despite the renewed bullishness, shares in the China-based EV maker could easily give back these latest gains.Given the downside risk if Nio fails to deliver, you may not want to chase this recent rally.Despite mixed quarterly results, Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock has been on the rise following its Sept. 7 earnings release. The main factor behind this has been a spate of analyst upgrades for shares in the China-based electric vehicle (EV) maker.Confidence is rising again that the company’s production ramp-up will result in a big jump in sales for the rest of 2022, and going into 2023. Yet before you decide to jump in, and chase its recent rally, it’s hardly a lock that results in the coming quarter will live up to today’s elevated hopes.The ramp-up may still fail to produce results in line with expectations. This may cause the stock to give back recent gains. In the long term, Nio’s global expansion could also fall short of expectations. With high growth heavily priced in, it may not take much for today’s renewed bullishness to reverse.Why NIO Stock Has Surged Post-EarningsNio may have beat on revenue for the second quarter, but the results were hardly much to get excited about. As expected, China’s pandemic shutdowns continued to decelerate growth, on a year-over-year basis, and especially on a sequential basis.Even worse, the EV maker reported a higher-than-expected net loss. Compared to the prior year’s quarter, net losses per share were up 316.4%. Still, instead of reacting negatively to Q2 results, the market focused instead on the company’s outlook for Q3, which calls for a speeding back up of growth.This resulted in a slight uptick for NIO stock right after earnings but analyst upgrades sent shares soaring. As InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reported Sep 12, two analysts (Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu, and BofA’s Ming-Hsun Lee) have reiterated their “buy” ratings, and have upped their price targets.Both analysts are bullish deliveries will re-accelerate considerably during Q4. This is due to a combination of the production ramp-up, plus Nio’s launch of new vehicle models. Yet while the situation may be improving, it may not be to the extent implied by the stock’s latest spike.How Its Latest Uptick Could ReverseAs buzz returns to NIO stock, it may seem that now’s the time to buy, ahead of a continued comeback. Unfortunately, there’s a lot to suggest that its latest surge may be short-lived in nature. With its move back above $20 per share, the market has now priced in a possible growth re-acceleration as a near-certainty.For the stock to keep moving higher, or at the very least avoid moving lower, Nio needs to both hit its own Q3 deliveries projection, plus hit Q4 numbers in line with the sell side’s expectations. Hitting its Q3 target may be attainable. Its monthly delivery numbers since June have come in above 10,000. Q4, though, may be a taller order.In order to meet Edison Yu’s 2022 estimate, Nio needs to deliver 57,000 vehicles between October and December. That’s nearly double projected Q3 deliveries.With increased production, new models, and Chinese government incentives, this may seem like a cinch. However, other factors, like China’s economic slowdown, could somewhat counter these positives.In turn, causing delivery numbers for the months ahead to fall short of expectations. Even if it’s a near miss, it may cause the stock to give back its recent gains.The Verdict on NIO StockNio stock earns a D rating in my Portfolio Grader. Beyond pulling back in the short term, shares could also keep performing poorly in the coming years. Long-term bulls believe high growth will continue. Even as growth in its home market returns, they are confident international expansion will keep it in high-growth mode.But only time will tell whether its first big expansion overseas (in Europe) proves successful. It may face greater competition in the China market. In Europe, it faces not just market leader Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), but competition from incumbent European luxury brands as well.Failure in Europe may result in it scrapping its North American expansion plans. Without global expansion, it will be difficult for Nio to sustain, much less grow, its current valuation.Given the downside risk of it failing to deliver in the coming quarter, you may not want to chase the recent NIO stock rally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"09866":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935759446,"gmtCreate":1663144228385,"gmtModify":1676537213660,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935759446","repostId":"2267530997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2267530997","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1663137951,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2267530997?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-14 14:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Stock Is About to Go Higher, Says Analyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2267530997","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Sometimes timing is everything. And Deutsche Bank believes now is the time to buy beaten up shares o","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Sometimes timing is everything. And Deutsche Bank believes now is the time to buy beaten up shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker XPeng.</p><p>Tuesday, analyst Edison Yu placed a &#34;catalyst Buy call&#34; on American depositary receipts.</p><p>A catalyst call is used by some brokers to demonstrate a sense of urgency because they expect the stock to move soon and for identifiable reasons.</p><p>In the case of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng</a>, Yu is looking at the launch of the G9, a new SUV unveiled this Summer. XPeng took in more than 22,000 reservations the hour after the launch. Pricing is due this month and deliveries are due to start in October.</p><p>Yu expects the SUV price to come in around 400,000 yuan, or about $58,000. The G9 SUV will offer the company&#39;s latest computing platform and driver-assistance software. What&#39;s more, it will be able to charge fast enough to get more than 100 miles of range in about 5 minutes -- as long as the charger can deliver the electricity quickly enough. Yu expects the SUV to be a strong seller for two or three quarters.</p><p>The G9 is a reason to buy the stock now, but Yu has been an XPeng fan for a while -- he&#39;s had a Buy rating on the ADRs since launching coverage back in 2020.. He has a $33 price target.</p><p>XPeng stock looks like it needs a catalyst. Coming into Tuesday trading, ADRs are down about 68% year to date. XPeng has delivered more than 90,000 vehicles in 2022, through August. That&#39;s up from about 46,000 vehicles delivered in the first eight months of 2021. Growth looks solid, but higher interest rates, Covid-19 lockdowns in China, and Chinese/American geopolitical tensions have all weight on investors sentiment.</p><p>The declines have left XPeng ADRs trading for roughly 2.7 times estimated 2023 sales. NIO ( NIO) ADRs, for comparison, trade for about 2.1 times sales, and Li Auto <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a> ADRs trade for about 1.5 times sales. (The three Chinese EV makers aren&#39;t consistently profitable yet.)</p><p>XPeng ADRs are off 2.4% in early Tuesday trading. The entire market is lower after an inflation report came in hotter than expected. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are off 2.3% and 3%, respectively.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Stock Is About to Go Higher, Says Analyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Stock Is About to Go Higher, Says Analyst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-14 14:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Sometimes timing is everything. And Deutsche Bank believes now is the time to buy beaten up shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker XPeng.</p><p>Tuesday, analyst Edison Yu placed a &#34;catalyst Buy call&#34; on American depositary receipts.</p><p>A catalyst call is used by some brokers to demonstrate a sense of urgency because they expect the stock to move soon and for identifiable reasons.</p><p>In the case of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng</a>, Yu is looking at the launch of the G9, a new SUV unveiled this Summer. XPeng took in more than 22,000 reservations the hour after the launch. Pricing is due this month and deliveries are due to start in October.</p><p>Yu expects the SUV price to come in around 400,000 yuan, or about $58,000. The G9 SUV will offer the company&#39;s latest computing platform and driver-assistance software. What&#39;s more, it will be able to charge fast enough to get more than 100 miles of range in about 5 minutes -- as long as the charger can deliver the electricity quickly enough. Yu expects the SUV to be a strong seller for two or three quarters.</p><p>The G9 is a reason to buy the stock now, but Yu has been an XPeng fan for a while -- he&#39;s had a Buy rating on the ADRs since launching coverage back in 2020.. He has a $33 price target.</p><p>XPeng stock looks like it needs a catalyst. Coming into Tuesday trading, ADRs are down about 68% year to date. XPeng has delivered more than 90,000 vehicles in 2022, through August. That&#39;s up from about 46,000 vehicles delivered in the first eight months of 2021. Growth looks solid, but higher interest rates, Covid-19 lockdowns in China, and Chinese/American geopolitical tensions have all weight on investors sentiment.</p><p>The declines have left XPeng ADRs trading for roughly 2.7 times estimated 2023 sales. NIO ( NIO) ADRs, for comparison, trade for about 2.1 times sales, and Li Auto <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a> ADRs trade for about 1.5 times sales. (The three Chinese EV makers aren&#39;t consistently profitable yet.)</p><p>XPeng ADRs are off 2.4% in early Tuesday trading. The entire market is lower after an inflation report came in hotter than expected. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are off 2.3% and 3%, respectively.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LI":"理想汽车","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4563":"昨日强势股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2267530997","content_text":"Sometimes timing is everything. And Deutsche Bank believes now is the time to buy beaten up shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker XPeng.Tuesday, analyst Edison Yu placed a \"catalyst Buy call\" on American depositary receipts.A catalyst call is used by some brokers to demonstrate a sense of urgency because they expect the stock to move soon and for identifiable reasons.In the case of XPeng, Yu is looking at the launch of the G9, a new SUV unveiled this Summer. XPeng took in more than 22,000 reservations the hour after the launch. Pricing is due this month and deliveries are due to start in October.Yu expects the SUV price to come in around 400,000 yuan, or about $58,000. The G9 SUV will offer the company's latest computing platform and driver-assistance software. What's more, it will be able to charge fast enough to get more than 100 miles of range in about 5 minutes -- as long as the charger can deliver the electricity quickly enough. Yu expects the SUV to be a strong seller for two or three quarters.The G9 is a reason to buy the stock now, but Yu has been an XPeng fan for a while -- he's had a Buy rating on the ADRs since launching coverage back in 2020.. He has a $33 price target.XPeng stock looks like it needs a catalyst. Coming into Tuesday trading, ADRs are down about 68% year to date. XPeng has delivered more than 90,000 vehicles in 2022, through August. That's up from about 46,000 vehicles delivered in the first eight months of 2021. Growth looks solid, but higher interest rates, Covid-19 lockdowns in China, and Chinese/American geopolitical tensions have all weight on investors sentiment.The declines have left XPeng ADRs trading for roughly 2.7 times estimated 2023 sales. NIO ( NIO) ADRs, for comparison, trade for about 2.1 times sales, and Li Auto $(LI)$ ADRs trade for about 1.5 times sales. (The three Chinese EV makers aren't consistently profitable yet.)XPeng ADRs are off 2.4% in early Tuesday trading. The entire market is lower after an inflation report came in hotter than expected. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are off 2.3% and 3%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.6,"09866":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935121040,"gmtCreate":1663049178280,"gmtModify":1676537191584,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935121040","repostId":"1154864878","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154864878","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663029586,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154864878?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-13 08:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Inflation Data Will Determine If Stock Rally Continues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154864878","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"S&P 500 to face another bout of turbulence if history repeatsKey technical level for the index is 200-day moving averageThe S&P 500 Index is on a roll, posting its best four-day rally since early July","content":"<div>\n<p>S&P 500 to face another bout of turbulence if history repeatsKey technical level for the index is 200-day moving averageThe S&P 500 Index is on a roll, posting its best four-day rally since early July...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-12/stocks-are-on-a-roll-inflation-data-determines-if-it-continues?srnd=premium\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Inflation Data Will Determine If Stock Rally Continues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Inflation Data Will Determine If Stock Rally Continues\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-13 08:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-12/stocks-are-on-a-roll-inflation-data-determines-if-it-continues?srnd=premium><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>S&P 500 to face another bout of turbulence if history repeatsKey technical level for the index is 200-day moving averageThe S&P 500 Index is on a roll, posting its best four-day rally since early July...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-12/stocks-are-on-a-roll-inflation-data-determines-if-it-continues?srnd=premium\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-12/stocks-are-on-a-roll-inflation-data-determines-if-it-continues?srnd=premium","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154864878","content_text":"S&P 500 to face another bout of turbulence if history repeatsKey technical level for the index is 200-day moving averageThe S&P 500 Index is on a roll, posting its best four-day rally since early July partly on the back of hopes that inflation data due Tuesday morning will show some cooling off ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.The index just snapped three weeks of losses and is now bouncing around 4,110 points, within sight of its 200-day moving average around 4,270. Failure to break -- and then stay -- above the key technical support level in the aftermath of the inflation report may indicate the market is poised for another leg lower.That’s what happened last month.After CPI data on Aug. 10 showed US inflation decelerated by more than expected, the S&P 500 briefly surged to within a hair of its 200-day moving average. But the index then lost steam, failing to recapture that threshold and coming under pressure after a fast rise in Treasury yields rattled growth shares and upended the stock market’s $7 trillion early summer rebound.The difference this time is that investor positioning is already depressed, which is a contrarian sign, according to Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. “This suggests at least some investors are already braced for bad news and will not need to take aggressive selling action since they are already somewhat hedged,” he wrote in a note to clients.Meanwhile, US consumer-price inflation is expected to show signs of moderating in August, with CPI forecast to have risen 8% in August from a year earlier versus 8.5% in July, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Another rally could help propel the index above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April.If the index can’t break above that, it would be a sign that a counter-trend rally has been unfolding, and the market is poised for another leg lower as the index faces resistance from 4,200 to 4,300, according to Lerner.Still, major US equity benchmarks have shown some resiliency recently, with the S&P 500 topping its 50-day and 100-day moving averages. A close above its 200-day moving average would be viewed as a potential bullish change in the market’s long-term trend.“We expect the markets to remain in choppy waters,” Lerner added. “However, markets do not typically move in a straight line. On a short-term basis, several indicators suggest the selling is getting overdone.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932449722,"gmtCreate":1662984715267,"gmtModify":1676537175916,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932449722","repostId":"2266497753","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266497753","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662980032,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266497753?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-12 18:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Bad Year for Crypto Is a Really Bad One for Crypto Miners","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266497753","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Last year was harvest time for crypto miners. Now, they're getting hit on all sides.Crypto prices ar","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9bc5ecd61888eff58e01013a8443b9c\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"574\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Last year was harvest time for crypto miners. Now, they&#39;re getting hit on all sides.</p><p>Crypto prices are plunging. Miners&#39; electricity bills are surging. Practically no one wants to buy their equipment.</p><p>It is a sharp turnaround from 2021, when crypto prices were soaring and many mining firms went on a mostly debt-funded buying spree of mining machines. But this year, crypto prices have been dropping and major crypto projects and companies have been wiped out. That has reduced the profits that miners can make from harvesting digital coins -- and from selling their equipment in a pinch.</p><p>Meanwhile, prices for electricity -- needed to keep the miners&#39; powerful computers running -- are soaring. Russia&#39;s war with Ukraine has hamstrung global energy supplies, while an extreme heat wave has bolstered energy demand from families that need to cool their homes.</p><p>Shares of crypto miners <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a>., Riot Blockchain Inc. and Core Scientific Inc. are all down  55% or more this year.</p><p>&#34;I don&#39;t think we are at the max pain yet in mining,&#34; said Amanda Fabiano, head of mining at Galaxy Digital.</p><p>Bitcoin miners set up and run the powerful computers that process bitcoin transactions. Those computers generate random numbers in hopes of finding the right combination to unlock formulas; the first to do so are rewarded with newly created bitcoins.</p><p>This makes it most profitable to mine bitcoin when the cryptocurrency&#39;s value is rising. Near bitcoin&#39;s 2021 peak, miners earned more than $60 million a day, according to data from Blockchain.com. Now, that number is around $19 million a day.</p><p>Last year bitcoin&#39;s value surged to nearly $70,000. This year the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, scaring many investors away from assets like crypto. Last week bitcoin traded around $19,000. What is more, many once-highflying crypto lenders have buckled, leaving mining companies with few places for funding.</p><p>Crypto enthusiasts used to routinely mine bitcoin with one machine at home. Now, bitcoin mining companies run banks of high-powered -- and noisy -- computers to get the job done.</p><p>When bitcoin&#39;s value soared last year, bitcoin-mining machines became a hot commodity. The rush to load up on mining rigs then was akin to &#34;buying spades in the middle of the gold rush,&#34; said Andy Long, chief executive of bitcoin miner White Rock Management.</p><p>Prices for the most-efficient tier of bitcoin miners are now one-third of their cost in December, according to Luxor Technology Corp., a bitcoin mining data analytics firm.</p><p>The steep decline has especially grave repercussions for the miners that borrowed funds to finance their equipment purchases last year. As bitcoin&#39;s price tumbled, these miners were forced to sell some of their mining rigs and bitcoin holdings to avoid running out of cash. But few people want to buy the machines on the secondary market, driving the price of mining machines even lower.</p><p>Some analysts worry that more forced selling of bitcoin could lie ahead, particularly as miners also struggle with energy-price shocks.</p><p>Average power prices for the largest users in Texas had climbed to 7.52 cents per kilowatt-hour in June, up 41% from the same month last year, according to government data. Their German equivalent was at EUR525 a megawatt hour this month, roughly equivalent to the same number in dollars and up almost 140% from last December. A White House report last week warned that crypto miners could strain the Texas power grid.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> Georgia facilities used by bitcoin-mining company Compass Mining LLC recently  had to close after their local utility providers increased electricity prices by 50%. Northern Data, a Frankfurt-based mining company, and other bitcoin miners said they were running mining machines only in the hours when power grids have less demand.</p><p>Publicly traded miners were forced to unload about 240,000 bitcoin at fire sale prices in May and June, according to Arcane Research, though the pressure has eased since then.</p><p>Miners of ether, the second-biggest cryptocurrency, face an even bleaker winter than their bitcoin counterparts.</p><p>Currently, crypto platform Ethereum uses a model similar to bitcoin, rewarding the fastest miners with new tokens. A software upgrade known as &#34;the Merge&#34; will change that. After the update, planned for this month, the Ethereum network will no longer require miners and their machines.</p><p>Already, there is less money to be made. Ether miners are averaging about $20 million in revenue a day, down from $50 million in 2021, according to crypto research firm CoinMetrics.</p><p>Ether miners will be able to migrate to platforms that still require miners, though those might not be as lucrative.</p><p>If ether miners decide to stop mining altogether, they can sell their machines to gaming or machine-learning companies, said Kyle Waters, a research analyst at CoinMetrics. That is because most ether mining machines have features that allow them to be repurposed, he said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Bad Year for Crypto Is a Really Bad One for Crypto Miners</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Bad Year for Crypto Is a Really Bad One for Crypto Miners\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-12 18:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9bc5ecd61888eff58e01013a8443b9c\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"574\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Last year was harvest time for crypto miners. Now, they&#39;re getting hit on all sides.</p><p>Crypto prices are plunging. Miners&#39; electricity bills are surging. Practically no one wants to buy their equipment.</p><p>It is a sharp turnaround from 2021, when crypto prices were soaring and many mining firms went on a mostly debt-funded buying spree of mining machines. But this year, crypto prices have been dropping and major crypto projects and companies have been wiped out. That has reduced the profits that miners can make from harvesting digital coins -- and from selling their equipment in a pinch.</p><p>Meanwhile, prices for electricity -- needed to keep the miners&#39; powerful computers running -- are soaring. Russia&#39;s war with Ukraine has hamstrung global energy supplies, while an extreme heat wave has bolstered energy demand from families that need to cool their homes.</p><p>Shares of crypto miners <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a>., Riot Blockchain Inc. and Core Scientific Inc. are all down  55% or more this year.</p><p>&#34;I don&#39;t think we are at the max pain yet in mining,&#34; said Amanda Fabiano, head of mining at Galaxy Digital.</p><p>Bitcoin miners set up and run the powerful computers that process bitcoin transactions. Those computers generate random numbers in hopes of finding the right combination to unlock formulas; the first to do so are rewarded with newly created bitcoins.</p><p>This makes it most profitable to mine bitcoin when the cryptocurrency&#39;s value is rising. Near bitcoin&#39;s 2021 peak, miners earned more than $60 million a day, according to data from Blockchain.com. Now, that number is around $19 million a day.</p><p>Last year bitcoin&#39;s value surged to nearly $70,000. This year the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, scaring many investors away from assets like crypto. Last week bitcoin traded around $19,000. What is more, many once-highflying crypto lenders have buckled, leaving mining companies with few places for funding.</p><p>Crypto enthusiasts used to routinely mine bitcoin with one machine at home. Now, bitcoin mining companies run banks of high-powered -- and noisy -- computers to get the job done.</p><p>When bitcoin&#39;s value soared last year, bitcoin-mining machines became a hot commodity. The rush to load up on mining rigs then was akin to &#34;buying spades in the middle of the gold rush,&#34; said Andy Long, chief executive of bitcoin miner White Rock Management.</p><p>Prices for the most-efficient tier of bitcoin miners are now one-third of their cost in December, according to Luxor Technology Corp., a bitcoin mining data analytics firm.</p><p>The steep decline has especially grave repercussions for the miners that borrowed funds to finance their equipment purchases last year. As bitcoin&#39;s price tumbled, these miners were forced to sell some of their mining rigs and bitcoin holdings to avoid running out of cash. But few people want to buy the machines on the secondary market, driving the price of mining machines even lower.</p><p>Some analysts worry that more forced selling of bitcoin could lie ahead, particularly as miners also struggle with energy-price shocks.</p><p>Average power prices for the largest users in Texas had climbed to 7.52 cents per kilowatt-hour in June, up 41% from the same month last year, according to government data. Their German equivalent was at EUR525 a megawatt hour this month, roughly equivalent to the same number in dollars and up almost 140% from last December. A White House report last week warned that crypto miners could strain the Texas power grid.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> Georgia facilities used by bitcoin-mining company Compass Mining LLC recently  had to close after their local utility providers increased electricity prices by 50%. Northern Data, a Frankfurt-based mining company, and other bitcoin miners said they were running mining machines only in the hours when power grids have less demand.</p><p>Publicly traded miners were forced to unload about 240,000 bitcoin at fire sale prices in May and June, according to Arcane Research, though the pressure has eased since then.</p><p>Miners of ether, the second-biggest cryptocurrency, face an even bleaker winter than their bitcoin counterparts.</p><p>Currently, crypto platform Ethereum uses a model similar to bitcoin, rewarding the fastest miners with new tokens. A software upgrade known as &#34;the Merge&#34; will change that. After the update, planned for this month, the Ethereum network will no longer require miners and their machines.</p><p>Already, there is less money to be made. Ether miners are averaging about $20 million in revenue a day, down from $50 million in 2021, according to crypto research firm CoinMetrics.</p><p>Ether miners will be able to migrate to platforms that still require miners, though those might not be as lucrative.</p><p>If ether miners decide to stop mining altogether, they can sell their machines to gaming or machine-learning companies, said Kyle Waters, a research analyst at CoinMetrics. That is because most ether mining machines have features that allow them to be repurposed, he said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4007":"制药","BK4191":"家用电器","TERN":"Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","BK4539":"次新股","CRCT":"Cricut, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266497753","content_text":"Last year was harvest time for crypto miners. Now, they're getting hit on all sides.Crypto prices are plunging. Miners' electricity bills are surging. Practically no one wants to buy their equipment.It is a sharp turnaround from 2021, when crypto prices were soaring and many mining firms went on a mostly debt-funded buying spree of mining machines. But this year, crypto prices have been dropping and major crypto projects and companies have been wiped out. That has reduced the profits that miners can make from harvesting digital coins -- and from selling their equipment in a pinch.Meanwhile, prices for electricity -- needed to keep the miners' powerful computers running -- are soaring. Russia's war with Ukraine has hamstrung global energy supplies, while an extreme heat wave has bolstered energy demand from families that need to cool their homes.Shares of crypto miners Marathon Digital Holdings Inc., Riot Blockchain Inc. and Core Scientific Inc. are all down  55% or more this year.\"I don't think we are at the max pain yet in mining,\" said Amanda Fabiano, head of mining at Galaxy Digital.Bitcoin miners set up and run the powerful computers that process bitcoin transactions. Those computers generate random numbers in hopes of finding the right combination to unlock formulas; the first to do so are rewarded with newly created bitcoins.This makes it most profitable to mine bitcoin when the cryptocurrency's value is rising. Near bitcoin's 2021 peak, miners earned more than $60 million a day, according to data from Blockchain.com. Now, that number is around $19 million a day.Last year bitcoin's value surged to nearly $70,000. This year the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, scaring many investors away from assets like crypto. Last week bitcoin traded around $19,000. What is more, many once-highflying crypto lenders have buckled, leaving mining companies with few places for funding.Crypto enthusiasts used to routinely mine bitcoin with one machine at home. Now, bitcoin mining companies run banks of high-powered -- and noisy -- computers to get the job done.When bitcoin's value soared last year, bitcoin-mining machines became a hot commodity. The rush to load up on mining rigs then was akin to \"buying spades in the middle of the gold rush,\" said Andy Long, chief executive of bitcoin miner White Rock Management.Prices for the most-efficient tier of bitcoin miners are now one-third of their cost in December, according to Luxor Technology Corp., a bitcoin mining data analytics firm.The steep decline has especially grave repercussions for the miners that borrowed funds to finance their equipment purchases last year. As bitcoin's price tumbled, these miners were forced to sell some of their mining rigs and bitcoin holdings to avoid running out of cash. But few people want to buy the machines on the secondary market, driving the price of mining machines even lower.Some analysts worry that more forced selling of bitcoin could lie ahead, particularly as miners also struggle with energy-price shocks.Average power prices for the largest users in Texas had climbed to 7.52 cents per kilowatt-hour in June, up 41% from the same month last year, according to government data. Their German equivalent was at EUR525 a megawatt hour this month, roughly equivalent to the same number in dollars and up almost 140% from last December. A White House report last week warned that crypto miners could strain the Texas power grid.Two Georgia facilities used by bitcoin-mining company Compass Mining LLC recently  had to close after their local utility providers increased electricity prices by 50%. Northern Data, a Frankfurt-based mining company, and other bitcoin miners said they were running mining machines only in the hours when power grids have less demand.Publicly traded miners were forced to unload about 240,000 bitcoin at fire sale prices in May and June, according to Arcane Research, though the pressure has eased since then.Miners of ether, the second-biggest cryptocurrency, face an even bleaker winter than their bitcoin counterparts.Currently, crypto platform Ethereum uses a model similar to bitcoin, rewarding the fastest miners with new tokens. A software upgrade known as \"the Merge\" will change that. After the update, planned for this month, the Ethereum network will no longer require miners and their machines.Already, there is less money to be made. Ether miners are averaging about $20 million in revenue a day, down from $50 million in 2021, according to crypto research firm CoinMetrics.Ether miners will be able to migrate to platforms that still require miners, though those might not be as lucrative.If ether miners decide to stop mining altogether, they can sell their machines to gaming or machine-learning companies, said Kyle Waters, a research analyst at CoinMetrics. That is because most ether mining machines have features that allow them to be repurposed, he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRCT":0.79,"TERN":0.79}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936371405,"gmtCreate":1662716482507,"gmtModify":1676537125958,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936371405","repostId":"1121193410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121193410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662736920,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121193410?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121193410","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.Howev","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.</li><li>It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.</li><li>However, its June-quarter results topped expectations largely driven by a healthy ramp-up of total deliveries despite all the challenges.</li><li>It also demonstrated its pricing muscle and showed that its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale.</li><li>Going forward, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis and Background</b></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) essentially took a stress test in the past two quarters. And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.</p><p>At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.</p><p>Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.</p><p><b>TSLA’s stress test</b></p><p>The following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.</p><p>Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.</p><p>So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e7881b443d2c420626b971f109ca311\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>TSLA’s fixed cost and variable cost</b></p><p>For a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from <i>A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing</i> by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,</p><blockquote><i>Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.</i></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5c669923352cb292c185f41f4ea4fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au</p><p>The next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.</p><p>You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).</p><p>Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5520e0e03cd80a27fd4c847f92439068\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p><b>TSLA Stock’s profit and return projections</b></p><p>This next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.</p><p>Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.</p><p>As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.</p><p>For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d10ac6399c754be5f519058eac954f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author: TSLA’s profit and return projections</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc4fe07e1d74f5be8ebf212d915aeb0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Final thoughts and risks</b></p><p>To recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.</p><p>However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880cc09103624085d81075fe424881e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121193410","content_text":"SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.However, its June-quarter results topped expectations largely driven by a healthy ramp-up of total deliveries despite all the challenges.It also demonstrated its pricing muscle and showed that its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale.Going forward, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree.Thesis and BackgroundTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) essentially took a stress test in the past two quarters. And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.TSLA’s stress testThe following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.Author based on Seeking Alpha dataTSLA’s fixed cost and variable costFor a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. AuThe next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.AuthorTSLA Stock’s profit and return projectionsThis next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.Author: TSLA’s profit and return projectionsSeeking AlphaFinal thoughts and risksTo recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.Seeking Alpha","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938551664,"gmtCreate":1662640311458,"gmtModify":1676537107103,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106967510834530","authorIdStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938551664","repostId":"1120069091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9911902132,"gmtCreate":1664104803126,"gmtModify":1676537391044,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106967510834530","idStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911902132","repostId":"2269490734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269490734","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664066508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269490734?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-25 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269490734","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf You're Selling Stocks Because the Fed Is Hiking Interest Rates, You May Be Suffering From “Inflation Illusion”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-25 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.</p><p>Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.</p><p>It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market&#39;s decline this past week following the Federal Reserve&#39;s most recent interest-rate hike announcement.</p><p>To show why higher interest rates aren&#39;t necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:</p><p>If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model&#39;s track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.</p><p>It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market&#39;s subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University&#39;s finance professor Robert Shiller.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64984acf0f40a1a5e886ef773747472a\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the ability to predict the stock market&#39;s five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.</p><h3>Money illusion</h3><p>These results are so surprising that it&#39;s important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years&#39; corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it&#39;s only half the story.</p><p>The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as &#34;inflation illusion&#34; -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.</p><p>According to research conducted by Warr, inflation&#39;s impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.</p><p>Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed&#39;s latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.</p><p>None of this means that the bear market shouldn&#39;t continue, or that equities aren&#39;t overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269490734","content_text":"Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market.Forget everything you think you know about the relationship between interest rates and the stock market. Take the notion that higher interest rates are bad for the stock market, which is almost universally believed on Wall Street. Plausible as this is, it is surprisingly difficult to support it empirically.It would be important to challenge this notion at any time, but especially in light of the U.S. market's decline this past week following the Federal Reserve's most recent interest-rate hike announcement.To show why higher interest rates aren't necessarily bad for equities, I compared the predictive power of the following two valuation indicators:If higher interest rates were always bad for stocks, then the Fed Model's track record would be superior to that of the earnings yield.It is not, as you can see from the table below. The table reports a statistic known as the r-squared, which reflects the degree to which one data series (in this case, the earnings yield or the Fed Model) predicts changes in a second series (in this case, the stock market's subsequent inflation-adjusted real return). The table reflects the U.S. stock market back to 1871, courtesy of data provided by Yale University's finance professor Robert Shiller.In other words, the ability to predict the stock market's five- and 10-year returns goes down when taking interest rates into account.Money illusionThese results are so surprising that it's important to explore why the conventional wisdom is wrong. That wisdom is based on the eminently plausible argument that higher interest rates mean that future years' corporate earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value. While that argument is not wrong, Richard Warr,  a finance professor at North Carolina State University, told me, it's only half the story.The other half of this story is that interest rates tend to be higher when inflation is higher, and average nominal earnings tend to grow faster in higher-inflation environments. Failing to appreciate this other half of the story is a fundamental mistake in economics known as \"inflation illusion\" -- confusing nominal with real, or inflation-adjusted, values.According to research conducted by Warr, inflation's impact on nominal earnings and the discount rate largely cancel each other out over time. While earnings tend to grow faster when inflation is higher, they must be more heavily discounted when calculating their present value.Investors were guilty of inflation illusion when they reacted to the Fed's latest interest rate announcement by selling stocks.None of this means that the bear market shouldn't continue, or that equities aren't overvalued. Indeed, by many measures, stocks are still overvalued, despite the much cheaper prices wrought by the bear market. The point of this discussion is that higher interest rates are not an additional reason, above and beyond the other factors affecting the stock market, why the market should fall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919117732,"gmtCreate":1663751615026,"gmtModify":1676537329347,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106967510834530","idStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919117732","repostId":"2269907879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932449722,"gmtCreate":1662984715267,"gmtModify":1676537175916,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106967510834530","idStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932449722","repostId":"2266497753","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2266497753","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1662980032,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2266497753?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-12 18:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Bad Year for Crypto Is a Really Bad One for Crypto Miners","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2266497753","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Last year was harvest time for crypto miners. Now, they're getting hit on all sides.Crypto prices ar","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9bc5ecd61888eff58e01013a8443b9c\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"574\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Last year was harvest time for crypto miners. Now, they&#39;re getting hit on all sides.</p><p>Crypto prices are plunging. Miners&#39; electricity bills are surging. Practically no one wants to buy their equipment.</p><p>It is a sharp turnaround from 2021, when crypto prices were soaring and many mining firms went on a mostly debt-funded buying spree of mining machines. But this year, crypto prices have been dropping and major crypto projects and companies have been wiped out. That has reduced the profits that miners can make from harvesting digital coins -- and from selling their equipment in a pinch.</p><p>Meanwhile, prices for electricity -- needed to keep the miners&#39; powerful computers running -- are soaring. Russia&#39;s war with Ukraine has hamstrung global energy supplies, while an extreme heat wave has bolstered energy demand from families that need to cool their homes.</p><p>Shares of crypto miners <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a>., Riot Blockchain Inc. and Core Scientific Inc. are all down  55% or more this year.</p><p>&#34;I don&#39;t think we are at the max pain yet in mining,&#34; said Amanda Fabiano, head of mining at Galaxy Digital.</p><p>Bitcoin miners set up and run the powerful computers that process bitcoin transactions. Those computers generate random numbers in hopes of finding the right combination to unlock formulas; the first to do so are rewarded with newly created bitcoins.</p><p>This makes it most profitable to mine bitcoin when the cryptocurrency&#39;s value is rising. Near bitcoin&#39;s 2021 peak, miners earned more than $60 million a day, according to data from Blockchain.com. Now, that number is around $19 million a day.</p><p>Last year bitcoin&#39;s value surged to nearly $70,000. This year the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, scaring many investors away from assets like crypto. Last week bitcoin traded around $19,000. What is more, many once-highflying crypto lenders have buckled, leaving mining companies with few places for funding.</p><p>Crypto enthusiasts used to routinely mine bitcoin with one machine at home. Now, bitcoin mining companies run banks of high-powered -- and noisy -- computers to get the job done.</p><p>When bitcoin&#39;s value soared last year, bitcoin-mining machines became a hot commodity. The rush to load up on mining rigs then was akin to &#34;buying spades in the middle of the gold rush,&#34; said Andy Long, chief executive of bitcoin miner White Rock Management.</p><p>Prices for the most-efficient tier of bitcoin miners are now one-third of their cost in December, according to Luxor Technology Corp., a bitcoin mining data analytics firm.</p><p>The steep decline has especially grave repercussions for the miners that borrowed funds to finance their equipment purchases last year. As bitcoin&#39;s price tumbled, these miners were forced to sell some of their mining rigs and bitcoin holdings to avoid running out of cash. But few people want to buy the machines on the secondary market, driving the price of mining machines even lower.</p><p>Some analysts worry that more forced selling of bitcoin could lie ahead, particularly as miners also struggle with energy-price shocks.</p><p>Average power prices for the largest users in Texas had climbed to 7.52 cents per kilowatt-hour in June, up 41% from the same month last year, according to government data. Their German equivalent was at EUR525 a megawatt hour this month, roughly equivalent to the same number in dollars and up almost 140% from last December. A White House report last week warned that crypto miners could strain the Texas power grid.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> Georgia facilities used by bitcoin-mining company Compass Mining LLC recently  had to close after their local utility providers increased electricity prices by 50%. Northern Data, a Frankfurt-based mining company, and other bitcoin miners said they were running mining machines only in the hours when power grids have less demand.</p><p>Publicly traded miners were forced to unload about 240,000 bitcoin at fire sale prices in May and June, according to Arcane Research, though the pressure has eased since then.</p><p>Miners of ether, the second-biggest cryptocurrency, face an even bleaker winter than their bitcoin counterparts.</p><p>Currently, crypto platform Ethereum uses a model similar to bitcoin, rewarding the fastest miners with new tokens. A software upgrade known as &#34;the Merge&#34; will change that. After the update, planned for this month, the Ethereum network will no longer require miners and their machines.</p><p>Already, there is less money to be made. Ether miners are averaging about $20 million in revenue a day, down from $50 million in 2021, according to crypto research firm CoinMetrics.</p><p>Ether miners will be able to migrate to platforms that still require miners, though those might not be as lucrative.</p><p>If ether miners decide to stop mining altogether, they can sell their machines to gaming or machine-learning companies, said Kyle Waters, a research analyst at CoinMetrics. That is because most ether mining machines have features that allow them to be repurposed, he said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Bad Year for Crypto Is a Really Bad One for Crypto Miners</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Bad Year for Crypto Is a Really Bad One for Crypto Miners\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-12 18:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9bc5ecd61888eff58e01013a8443b9c\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"574\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Last year was harvest time for crypto miners. Now, they&#39;re getting hit on all sides.</p><p>Crypto prices are plunging. Miners&#39; electricity bills are surging. Practically no one wants to buy their equipment.</p><p>It is a sharp turnaround from 2021, when crypto prices were soaring and many mining firms went on a mostly debt-funded buying spree of mining machines. But this year, crypto prices have been dropping and major crypto projects and companies have been wiped out. That has reduced the profits that miners can make from harvesting digital coins -- and from selling their equipment in a pinch.</p><p>Meanwhile, prices for electricity -- needed to keep the miners&#39; powerful computers running -- are soaring. Russia&#39;s war with Ukraine has hamstrung global energy supplies, while an extreme heat wave has bolstered energy demand from families that need to cool their homes.</p><p>Shares of crypto miners <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a>., Riot Blockchain Inc. and Core Scientific Inc. are all down  55% or more this year.</p><p>&#34;I don&#39;t think we are at the max pain yet in mining,&#34; said Amanda Fabiano, head of mining at Galaxy Digital.</p><p>Bitcoin miners set up and run the powerful computers that process bitcoin transactions. Those computers generate random numbers in hopes of finding the right combination to unlock formulas; the first to do so are rewarded with newly created bitcoins.</p><p>This makes it most profitable to mine bitcoin when the cryptocurrency&#39;s value is rising. Near bitcoin&#39;s 2021 peak, miners earned more than $60 million a day, according to data from Blockchain.com. Now, that number is around $19 million a day.</p><p>Last year bitcoin&#39;s value surged to nearly $70,000. This year the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, scaring many investors away from assets like crypto. Last week bitcoin traded around $19,000. What is more, many once-highflying crypto lenders have buckled, leaving mining companies with few places for funding.</p><p>Crypto enthusiasts used to routinely mine bitcoin with one machine at home. Now, bitcoin mining companies run banks of high-powered -- and noisy -- computers to get the job done.</p><p>When bitcoin&#39;s value soared last year, bitcoin-mining machines became a hot commodity. The rush to load up on mining rigs then was akin to &#34;buying spades in the middle of the gold rush,&#34; said Andy Long, chief executive of bitcoin miner White Rock Management.</p><p>Prices for the most-efficient tier of bitcoin miners are now one-third of their cost in December, according to Luxor Technology Corp., a bitcoin mining data analytics firm.</p><p>The steep decline has especially grave repercussions for the miners that borrowed funds to finance their equipment purchases last year. As bitcoin&#39;s price tumbled, these miners were forced to sell some of their mining rigs and bitcoin holdings to avoid running out of cash. But few people want to buy the machines on the secondary market, driving the price of mining machines even lower.</p><p>Some analysts worry that more forced selling of bitcoin could lie ahead, particularly as miners also struggle with energy-price shocks.</p><p>Average power prices for the largest users in Texas had climbed to 7.52 cents per kilowatt-hour in June, up 41% from the same month last year, according to government data. Their German equivalent was at EUR525 a megawatt hour this month, roughly equivalent to the same number in dollars and up almost 140% from last December. A White House report last week warned that crypto miners could strain the Texas power grid.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> Georgia facilities used by bitcoin-mining company Compass Mining LLC recently  had to close after their local utility providers increased electricity prices by 50%. Northern Data, a Frankfurt-based mining company, and other bitcoin miners said they were running mining machines only in the hours when power grids have less demand.</p><p>Publicly traded miners were forced to unload about 240,000 bitcoin at fire sale prices in May and June, according to Arcane Research, though the pressure has eased since then.</p><p>Miners of ether, the second-biggest cryptocurrency, face an even bleaker winter than their bitcoin counterparts.</p><p>Currently, crypto platform Ethereum uses a model similar to bitcoin, rewarding the fastest miners with new tokens. A software upgrade known as &#34;the Merge&#34; will change that. After the update, planned for this month, the Ethereum network will no longer require miners and their machines.</p><p>Already, there is less money to be made. Ether miners are averaging about $20 million in revenue a day, down from $50 million in 2021, according to crypto research firm CoinMetrics.</p><p>Ether miners will be able to migrate to platforms that still require miners, though those might not be as lucrative.</p><p>If ether miners decide to stop mining altogether, they can sell their machines to gaming or machine-learning companies, said Kyle Waters, a research analyst at CoinMetrics. That is because most ether mining machines have features that allow them to be repurposed, he said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4007":"制药","BK4191":"家用电器","TERN":"Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","BK4539":"次新股","CRCT":"Cricut, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2266497753","content_text":"Last year was harvest time for crypto miners. Now, they're getting hit on all sides.Crypto prices are plunging. Miners' electricity bills are surging. Practically no one wants to buy their equipment.It is a sharp turnaround from 2021, when crypto prices were soaring and many mining firms went on a mostly debt-funded buying spree of mining machines. But this year, crypto prices have been dropping and major crypto projects and companies have been wiped out. That has reduced the profits that miners can make from harvesting digital coins -- and from selling their equipment in a pinch.Meanwhile, prices for electricity -- needed to keep the miners' powerful computers running -- are soaring. Russia's war with Ukraine has hamstrung global energy supplies, while an extreme heat wave has bolstered energy demand from families that need to cool their homes.Shares of crypto miners Marathon Digital Holdings Inc., Riot Blockchain Inc. and Core Scientific Inc. are all down  55% or more this year.\"I don't think we are at the max pain yet in mining,\" said Amanda Fabiano, head of mining at Galaxy Digital.Bitcoin miners set up and run the powerful computers that process bitcoin transactions. Those computers generate random numbers in hopes of finding the right combination to unlock formulas; the first to do so are rewarded with newly created bitcoins.This makes it most profitable to mine bitcoin when the cryptocurrency's value is rising. Near bitcoin's 2021 peak, miners earned more than $60 million a day, according to data from Blockchain.com. Now, that number is around $19 million a day.Last year bitcoin's value surged to nearly $70,000. This year the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, scaring many investors away from assets like crypto. Last week bitcoin traded around $19,000. What is more, many once-highflying crypto lenders have buckled, leaving mining companies with few places for funding.Crypto enthusiasts used to routinely mine bitcoin with one machine at home. Now, bitcoin mining companies run banks of high-powered -- and noisy -- computers to get the job done.When bitcoin's value soared last year, bitcoin-mining machines became a hot commodity. The rush to load up on mining rigs then was akin to \"buying spades in the middle of the gold rush,\" said Andy Long, chief executive of bitcoin miner White Rock Management.Prices for the most-efficient tier of bitcoin miners are now one-third of their cost in December, according to Luxor Technology Corp., a bitcoin mining data analytics firm.The steep decline has especially grave repercussions for the miners that borrowed funds to finance their equipment purchases last year. As bitcoin's price tumbled, these miners were forced to sell some of their mining rigs and bitcoin holdings to avoid running out of cash. But few people want to buy the machines on the secondary market, driving the price of mining machines even lower.Some analysts worry that more forced selling of bitcoin could lie ahead, particularly as miners also struggle with energy-price shocks.Average power prices for the largest users in Texas had climbed to 7.52 cents per kilowatt-hour in June, up 41% from the same month last year, according to government data. Their German equivalent was at EUR525 a megawatt hour this month, roughly equivalent to the same number in dollars and up almost 140% from last December. A White House report last week warned that crypto miners could strain the Texas power grid.Two Georgia facilities used by bitcoin-mining company Compass Mining LLC recently  had to close after their local utility providers increased electricity prices by 50%. Northern Data, a Frankfurt-based mining company, and other bitcoin miners said they were running mining machines only in the hours when power grids have less demand.Publicly traded miners were forced to unload about 240,000 bitcoin at fire sale prices in May and June, according to Arcane Research, though the pressure has eased since then.Miners of ether, the second-biggest cryptocurrency, face an even bleaker winter than their bitcoin counterparts.Currently, crypto platform Ethereum uses a model similar to bitcoin, rewarding the fastest miners with new tokens. A software upgrade known as \"the Merge\" will change that. After the update, planned for this month, the Ethereum network will no longer require miners and their machines.Already, there is less money to be made. Ether miners are averaging about $20 million in revenue a day, down from $50 million in 2021, according to crypto research firm CoinMetrics.Ether miners will be able to migrate to platforms that still require miners, though those might not be as lucrative.If ether miners decide to stop mining altogether, they can sell their machines to gaming or machine-learning companies, said Kyle Waters, a research analyst at CoinMetrics. That is because most ether mining machines have features that allow them to be repurposed, he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRCT":0.79,"TERN":0.79}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985793235,"gmtCreate":1667452616028,"gmtModify":1676537920924,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106967510834530","idStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985793235","repostId":"1124568203","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908899690,"gmtCreate":1659352327810,"gmtModify":1705979393568,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106967510834530","idStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908899690","repostId":"1163468864","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163468864","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659343896,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163468864?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-01 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba, Nio, XPeng, Li Auto, Boeing, Activision Blizzard and HSBC: U.S. Stocks To Watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163468864","media":"Benzinga","summary":"With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Monday ahead of earnings reports from several bi","content":"<div>\n<p>With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Monday ahead of earnings reports from several big companies, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Alibaba said it ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/08/28282642/global-payments-mosaic-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-monday\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba, Nio, XPeng, Li Auto, Boeing, Activision Blizzard and HSBC: U.S. Stocks To Watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba, Nio, XPeng, Li Auto, Boeing, Activision Blizzard and HSBC: U.S. Stocks To Watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-01 16:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/08/28282642/global-payments-mosaic-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-monday><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Monday ahead of earnings reports from several big companies, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Alibaba said it ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/08/28282642/global-payments-mosaic-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-monday\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音","BABA":"阿里巴巴","HSBC":"汇丰","LI":"理想汽车","TUEM":"Tuesday Morning Corp","GPN":"环汇有限公司","ON":"安森美半导体","MOS":"美国美盛","ATVI":"动视暴雪"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/08/28282642/global-payments-mosaic-and-3-stocks-to-watch-heading-into-monday","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163468864","content_text":"With US stock futures trading lower this morning on Monday ahead of earnings reports from several big companies, some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are as follows:Alibaba said it would work to maintain its New York and Hong Kong stock exchange listings after the Chinese e-commerce giant was placed on a delisting watchlist by U.S authorities.XPeng Inc. recorded monthly deliveries in July of 11,524 Smart EVs, representing a 43% increase year-over-year. The Company delivered 80,507 Smart EVs in total for the first seven months in 2022, representing a 108% increase year-over-year. Cumulative deliveries reached nearly 220,000 as of the end of July 2022.Li Auto delivered 10,422 Li ONEs in July 2022, up 21.3% year over year. The cumulative deliveries of Li ONE have reached 194,913 since the vehicle’s market debut in 2019.NIO Inc. delivered 10,052 vehicles in July 2022, representing an increase of 26.7% year-over-year. The deliveries consisted of 7,579 premium smart electric SUVs, and 2,473 premium smart electric sedans. Cumulative deliveries of NIO vehicles reached 227,949 as of July 31, 2022.Boeing temporarily avoided a strike at three plants that make military gear, and U.S. regulators approved the company's plan for validating repairs to the 787.HSBC Holdings PLC posted $5.49 billion in net profit for the three months ended June 30, compared with $3.40 billion a year earlier. Net profit had been projected to decline to $2.70 billion, according to the lender's compiled consensus for the period.Wall Street expects Global Payments Inc. to report quarterly earnings at $2.35 per share on revenue of $2.07 billion before the opening bell. Global Payments shares fell 0.2% to $122.10 in after-hours trading.Analysts are expecting The Mosaic Company to have earned $4.01 per share on revenue of $5.65 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. Mosaic shares rose 0.1% to $52.70 in after-hours trading.Tuesday Morning Corporation said that the company’s Chief Financial Officer Jennifer Robinson is departing to pursue other opportunities effective August 15, 2022. The company named current COO Marc Katz as Interim CFO. Tuesday Morning shares fell 3.4% to $0.2300 in the after-hours trading session.After the closing bell, Activision Blizzard, Inc. is projected to post quarterly earnings at $0.48 per share on revenue of $1.58 billion. Activision shares slipped 0.2% to $79.80 in after-hours trading.Analysts expect ON Semiconductor Corporation to report quarterly earnings at $1.26 per share on revenue of $2.01 billion before the opening bell. ON Semiconductor shares fell 0.1% to $66.75 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MOS":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"ON":0.9,"TUEM":0.9,"HSBC":0.9,"BA":0.9,"ATVI":0.9,"GPN":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9900533718,"gmtCreate":1658724533434,"gmtModify":1676536198339,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106967510834530","idStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9900533718","repostId":"2254296074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2254296074","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658713622,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2254296074?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-25 09:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed, Tech Earnings, GDP Data: What to Know Ahead of the Busiest Week of the Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2254296074","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"The busiest week of the year for investors is here.A jam-packed week of market-moving developments a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The busiest week of the year for investors is here.</p><p>A jam-packed week of market-moving developments awaits investors in the coming days, headlined by the Fed, tech earnings, and key economic data.</p><p>The Federal Reserve&#39;s latest policy meeting is set to take place this coming Tuesday and Wednesday, July 26-27, with the central bank expected to raise interest rates another 75 basis points.</p><p>On the earnings side, some of the most S&amp;P 500’s most heavily-weighted components — including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (FB), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) — are among more than 170 companies scheduled to report second-quarter results through Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ada7b243e14854832b5370b492cab57\" tg-width=\"2044\" tg-height=\"1448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also on spotlight will be Thursday&#39;s advance estimate of second quarter GDP, as market participants continue to debate whether a recession is already underway. Economists expect this report to show the economy grew at an annualized pace of 0.5% last quarter, according to estimates from Bloomberg.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0257c07b94036425ca0041e05623685c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Logo of an Apple store is seen as Apple Inc. reports fourth quarter earnings in Washington, U.S., January 27, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts</span></p><p>All three major U.S. indexes logged gains last week after broad-based advances across sectors. On Tuesday, 98% of stocks in the benchmark S&amp;P 500 advanced, the most since December 26, 2018, the first trading day after the market bottom that occurred on December 24, 2018, according to data from LPL Financial.</p><p>Recent gains have pushed up the index by roughly 6% since June 16, stoking optimism among some investors that the worst of the recent market downturn is over.</p><p>“While breadth has been rather unimpressive during the market’s rally since the June lows, days like Tuesday are exactly what we are looking for, and can go a long way towards changing the character of this market,” LPL strategist Scott Brown said in a note. “To be clear, the S&amp;P 500 is not out of the woods yet.”</p><p>Tuesday pushed the index to a close above the 50-day moving average for the first time since April 20, but it remained just short of the late-June intraday highs, Brown pointed out.</p><p>If the Federal Reserve proceeds with hiking rates three quarters of a percentage point later this week, the Federal funds rate will have moved from near 0% less than five months ago to a range of 2.25%-2.5% — a level in line with most officials’ estimates of the long-run neutral.</p><p>“The Fed has told us they’re unlikely to let up on the brakes until they see a convincing shift in the trajectory of monthly inflation readings that would signal progress towards the Fed’s 2% target,” PGIM Fixed Income lead economist Ellen Gaske said in emailed comments. “We expect Powell will likely reiterate that message at his post-meeting press conference.”</p><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, shortly after the U.S. central bank’s policy decision comes out at 2:00 p.m. ET.</p><p>“We suspect it’s likely too soon for the Fed to convey a much more forward-looking point of view, as the most recent inflation readings still showed high and widespread price pressures,” Gaske said. “But with each additional hike from here, the lagged effects of the Fed’s tightening measures will be increasingly important to consider.”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59626e18211886e9fe5f70ddf13a84e5\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 23: Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System testifies before the House Committee on Financial Services June 23, 2022 in Washington, DC. Powell testified on monetary policy and the state of the U.S. economy. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)</span></p><p>Last month, U.S. consumer prices again accelerated at the fastest annual pace since November 1981. The Bureau of Labor Statistics&#39; Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflected a year-over-year increase of 9.1% in June’s reading, marking the highest print of the inflation cycle.</p><p>Economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note last week that inflation expectations have notably softened since the FOMC last met in June, referencing downward revisions to the University of Michigan’s final read on 5-10 year inflation expectations, a decline in the survey’s preliminary July figure, and a “material” downtrend in market-based measures of inflation.</p><p>“This softening of inflation expectations is one reason why we expect the FOMC will not accelerate the near-term hiking pace and will deliver a 75bp hike at the July FOMC meeting,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said.</p><p>In addition to the Fed and earnings, investors will closely watch the government’s first estimate of gross domestic product – the broadest measure of economic activity — for the second quarter, set for release Thursday morning.</p><p>The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s latest GDPNow estimate for Q2 GDP on July 19, showed the economy likely shrank 1.6% last quarter. If realized, this decline would mark the second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth and affirm to some strategists that the economy has entered a recession.</p><p>According to data from Bloomberg, Wall Street economists expect GDP grew at an annualized pace of 0.5% last quarter.</p><p>On the earnings front, results from the mega-caps will be closely watched, though hundreds of other names will draw investor attention during one of the busiest weeks for corporate results of the year. In addition to performance for the most recent three-month periods, remarks from tech heavyweights on hiring plans or other adjustments to their outlooks related to macroeconomic headwinds will be closely tracked.</p><p>In recent weeks, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Meta have all said they would scale back on hiring across certain areas.</p><p>According to FactSet Research, 21% of companies in the S&amp;P 500 have reported second-quarter earnings through Friday, with only 68% presenting actual earnings per share above estimates — below the five-year average of 77%. Any earnings beats have also, in aggregate, been only 3.6% above estimates, less than half of the five-year average of 8.8%.</p><p>—</p><h2>Economics calendar:</h2><h2></h2><p><b>Monday: </b>Chicago Fed national activity index (June), Dallas Fed manufacturing business index (June)</p><p><b>Tuesday:</b> House price index (May), S&amp;P Case-Shiller national home price index (May), Conference Board consumer confidence index (July), New home sales (June), Richmond manufacturing index (June)</p><p><b>Wednesday: </b>MBA mortgage applications (week ended July 22)<b>, </b>Durable goods orders (June), Retail inventories (June), Wholesale inventories (June), Pending home sales (June), FOMC statement, Fed interest rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference</p><p><b>Thursday:</b> GDP (Q2 advance estimate), Initial jobless claims (week ended July 22), Continuing claims (week ended July 15), Kansas City Fed composite index (July)</p><p><b>Friday:</b> Core PCE price index (June), PCE price index (June), Personal income (June), Personal spending (June), Real personal consumption (June), Chicago PMI (July), UMich consumer sentiment index (July preliminary), UMich 5-year inflation expectations (July preliminary)</p><p>—</p><h2>Earnings Calendar:</h2><h2></h2><p><b>Monday: </b>Whirlpool (WHR), Squarespace (SQSP), TrueBlue (TBI), F5 (FFIV), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Ryanair (RYAAY), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), Newmont Corporation (NEM)</p><p><b>Tuesday: </b>Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald’s (MCD), General Motors (GM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Mondelez International (MDLZ), UPS (UPS), 3M (MMM), PulteGroup (PHM), Texas Instruments (TXN), General Electric (GE), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Chubb (CB), Canadian National Railway, Pentair (CNI), Paccar (PCAR), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Albertsons (ACI), Teradyne (TER), Ashland (ASH), Boston Properties (BXP), FirstEnergy (FE), Visa (V)</p><p><b>Wednesday:</b> Meta Platforms (META), Boeing (BA), Ford (F), Etsy (ETSY), Qualcomm (QCOM), T-Mobile (TMUS), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Kraft Heinz (KH), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Boston Scientific (BSX), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Fortune Brands (FBH), Flex (FLEX), Hess Corporation (HES), Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC), Netgear (NTGR), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), American Water Works (AWK), Ryder System (R), Genuine Parts (GPC), Waste Management (WM), Community Health Systems (CYH), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Owens Corning (OC)</p><p><b>Thursday:</b> Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Pfizer (PFE), Honeywell (HON), Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), Intel (INTC), Roku (ROKU), Merck (MRK), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Hertz Global (HTZ), T.Rowe Price (TROW), Valero Energy (VLO), Northrop Grumman (NOC), V.F. Corporation (VFC), Frontier Group (ULCC), Southwest Air (LUV), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Shell (SHEL), Stanley Black and Decker (SWK), Carlyle Group (CG), Lazard (LAZ), International Paper (IP), Sirius XM (SIRI), Hershey (HSY), PG&amp;E (PCG), Hartford Financial (HIG), Celanese (CE)</p><p><b>Friday: </b>AstraZeneca (AZN), Sony (SON), Aon (AON), BNP Paribas (BNPQY)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed, Tech Earnings, GDP Data: What to Know Ahead of the Busiest Week of the Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed, Tech Earnings, GDP Data: What to Know Ahead of the Busiest Week of the Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-25 09:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-tech-earnings-weekly-preview-july-25-194451575.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The busiest week of the year for investors is here.A jam-packed week of market-moving developments awaits investors in the coming days, headlined by the Fed, tech earnings, and key economic data.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-tech-earnings-weekly-preview-july-25-194451575.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌","INTC":"英特尔",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CMCSA":"康卡斯特","V":"Visa","QCOM":"高通",".DJI":"道琼斯","F":"福特汽车","ROKU":"Roku Inc","UPS":"联合包裹","RYAAY":"Ryanair Holdings plc","GE":"GE航空航天","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","GOOGL":"谷歌A","KO":"可口可乐","MCD":"麦当劳","NXPI":"恩智浦","TXN":"德州仪器","BA":"波音","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-tech-earnings-weekly-preview-july-25-194451575.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2254296074","content_text":"The busiest week of the year for investors is here.A jam-packed week of market-moving developments awaits investors in the coming days, headlined by the Fed, tech earnings, and key economic data.The Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting is set to take place this coming Tuesday and Wednesday, July 26-27, with the central bank expected to raise interest rates another 75 basis points.On the earnings side, some of the most S&P 500’s most heavily-weighted components — including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (FB), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) — are among more than 170 companies scheduled to report second-quarter results through Friday.Also on spotlight will be Thursday's advance estimate of second quarter GDP, as market participants continue to debate whether a recession is already underway. Economists expect this report to show the economy grew at an annualized pace of 0.5% last quarter, according to estimates from Bloomberg.Logo of an Apple store is seen as Apple Inc. reports fourth quarter earnings in Washington, U.S., January 27, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua RobertsAll three major U.S. indexes logged gains last week after broad-based advances across sectors. On Tuesday, 98% of stocks in the benchmark S&P 500 advanced, the most since December 26, 2018, the first trading day after the market bottom that occurred on December 24, 2018, according to data from LPL Financial.Recent gains have pushed up the index by roughly 6% since June 16, stoking optimism among some investors that the worst of the recent market downturn is over.“While breadth has been rather unimpressive during the market’s rally since the June lows, days like Tuesday are exactly what we are looking for, and can go a long way towards changing the character of this market,” LPL strategist Scott Brown said in a note. “To be clear, the S&P 500 is not out of the woods yet.”Tuesday pushed the index to a close above the 50-day moving average for the first time since April 20, but it remained just short of the late-June intraday highs, Brown pointed out.If the Federal Reserve proceeds with hiking rates three quarters of a percentage point later this week, the Federal funds rate will have moved from near 0% less than five months ago to a range of 2.25%-2.5% — a level in line with most officials’ estimates of the long-run neutral.“The Fed has told us they’re unlikely to let up on the brakes until they see a convincing shift in the trajectory of monthly inflation readings that would signal progress towards the Fed’s 2% target,” PGIM Fixed Income lead economist Ellen Gaske said in emailed comments. “We expect Powell will likely reiterate that message at his post-meeting press conference.”Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, shortly after the U.S. central bank’s policy decision comes out at 2:00 p.m. ET.“We suspect it’s likely too soon for the Fed to convey a much more forward-looking point of view, as the most recent inflation readings still showed high and widespread price pressures,” Gaske said. “But with each additional hike from here, the lagged effects of the Fed’s tightening measures will be increasingly important to consider.”WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 23: Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System testifies before the House Committee on Financial Services June 23, 2022 in Washington, DC. Powell testified on monetary policy and the state of the U.S. economy. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)Last month, U.S. consumer prices again accelerated at the fastest annual pace since November 1981. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflected a year-over-year increase of 9.1% in June’s reading, marking the highest print of the inflation cycle.Economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note last week that inflation expectations have notably softened since the FOMC last met in June, referencing downward revisions to the University of Michigan’s final read on 5-10 year inflation expectations, a decline in the survey’s preliminary July figure, and a “material” downtrend in market-based measures of inflation.“This softening of inflation expectations is one reason why we expect the FOMC will not accelerate the near-term hiking pace and will deliver a 75bp hike at the July FOMC meeting,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said.In addition to the Fed and earnings, investors will closely watch the government’s first estimate of gross domestic product – the broadest measure of economic activity — for the second quarter, set for release Thursday morning.The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s latest GDPNow estimate for Q2 GDP on July 19, showed the economy likely shrank 1.6% last quarter. If realized, this decline would mark the second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth and affirm to some strategists that the economy has entered a recession.According to data from Bloomberg, Wall Street economists expect GDP grew at an annualized pace of 0.5% last quarter.On the earnings front, results from the mega-caps will be closely watched, though hundreds of other names will draw investor attention during one of the busiest weeks for corporate results of the year. In addition to performance for the most recent three-month periods, remarks from tech heavyweights on hiring plans or other adjustments to their outlooks related to macroeconomic headwinds will be closely tracked.In recent weeks, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Meta have all said they would scale back on hiring across certain areas.According to FactSet Research, 21% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported second-quarter earnings through Friday, with only 68% presenting actual earnings per share above estimates — below the five-year average of 77%. Any earnings beats have also, in aggregate, been only 3.6% above estimates, less than half of the five-year average of 8.8%.—Economics calendar:Monday: Chicago Fed national activity index (June), Dallas Fed manufacturing business index (June)Tuesday: House price index (May), S&P Case-Shiller national home price index (May), Conference Board consumer confidence index (July), New home sales (June), Richmond manufacturing index (June)Wednesday: MBA mortgage applications (week ended July 22), Durable goods orders (June), Retail inventories (June), Wholesale inventories (June), Pending home sales (June), FOMC statement, Fed interest rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conferenceThursday: GDP (Q2 advance estimate), Initial jobless claims (week ended July 22), Continuing claims (week ended July 15), Kansas City Fed composite index (July)Friday: Core PCE price index (June), PCE price index (June), Personal income (June), Personal spending (June), Real personal consumption (June), Chicago PMI (July), UMich consumer sentiment index (July preliminary), UMich 5-year inflation expectations (July preliminary)—Earnings Calendar:Monday: Whirlpool (WHR), Squarespace (SQSP), TrueBlue (TBI), F5 (FFIV), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Ryanair (RYAAY), NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), Newmont Corporation (NEM)Tuesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald’s (MCD), General Motors (GM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Mondelez International (MDLZ), UPS (UPS), 3M (MMM), PulteGroup (PHM), Texas Instruments (TXN), General Electric (GE), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Chubb (CB), Canadian National Railway, Pentair (CNI), Paccar (PCAR), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Albertsons (ACI), Teradyne (TER), Ashland (ASH), Boston Properties (BXP), FirstEnergy (FE), Visa (V)Wednesday: Meta Platforms (META), Boeing (BA), Ford (F), Etsy (ETSY), Qualcomm (QCOM), T-Mobile (TMUS), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Kraft Heinz (KH), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Boston Scientific (BSX), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Fortune Brands (FBH), Flex (FLEX), Hess Corporation (HES), Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC), Netgear (NTGR), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), American Water Works (AWK), Ryder System (R), Genuine Parts (GPC), Waste Management (WM), Community Health Systems (CYH), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Owens Corning (OC)Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Pfizer (PFE), Honeywell (HON), Mastercard (MA), Comcast (CMCSA), Intel (INTC), Roku (ROKU), Merck (MRK), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Hertz Global (HTZ), T.Rowe Price (TROW), Valero Energy (VLO), Northrop Grumman (NOC), V.F. Corporation (VFC), Frontier Group (ULCC), Southwest Air (LUV), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Shell (SHEL), Stanley Black and Decker (SWK), Carlyle Group (CG), Lazard (LAZ), International Paper (IP), Sirius XM (SIRI), Hershey (HSY), PG&E (PCG), Hartford Financial (HIG), Celanese (CE)Friday: AstraZeneca (AZN), Sony (SON), Aon (AON), BNP Paribas (BNPQY)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MCD":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"TXN":0.9,"NXPI":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MSFT":0.6,"GOOG":0.9,"KO":0.9,"BA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"CMCSA":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"RYAAY":0.9,"META":0.6,"UPS":0.9,"F":0.9,"GE":0.9,"ROKU":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"V":0.9,"AMZN":0.6,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937423071,"gmtCreate":1663484915794,"gmtModify":1676537278090,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106967510834530","idStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[USD]&nbsp;","listText":"[USD]&nbsp;","text":"[USD]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937423071","repostId":"2268672370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268672370","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663460267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268672370?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 08:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268672370","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hike</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4166c0ac7b0bdf7caa1837ef618a67\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Fed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.</span></p><p>The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.</p><p>“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.</p><p>U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&amp;P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.</p><p>A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.</p><p>Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.</p><p>Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.</p><p>The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.</p><p>Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.</p><p>William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”</p><p>Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.</p><p>“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.</p><p>The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.</p><p>The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&amp;P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.</p><p>“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”</p><p>Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.</p><p>“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing the Stock Market? What Investors Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 08:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-isnt-trying-to-wreck-the-stock-market-as-it-wrestles-with-inflation-but-it-isnt-going-to-ride-to-the-rescue-11663366540?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268672370","content_text":"Investors should brace for more volatility with policy makers expected to deliver another jumbo rate hikeFed Chair Jerome Powell says bringing down inflation will cause pain for households and businesses.The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to slam the stock market as it rapidly raises interest rates in its bid to slow inflation still running red hot — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policy makers aren’t going to be cowed by a deepening selloff, investors and strategists said.“I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive inflation down by destroying stock prices or bond prices, but it is having that effect.” said Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Exencial Wealth Advisors, in an interview.U.S. stocks fell sharply in the past week after hopes for a pronounced cooling in inflation were dashed by a hotter-than-expected August inflation reading. The data cemented expectations among fed-funds futures traders for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points when the Fed concludes its policy meeting on Sept. 21, with some traders and analysts looking for an increase of 100 basis points, or a full percentage point.The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 4.1% weekly fall, while the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 5.5% decline. The S&P 500 ended Friday below the 3,900 level viewed as an important area of technical support, with some chart watchers eyeing the potential for a test of the large-cap benchmark’s 2022 low at 3,666.77 set on June 16.A profit warning from global shipping giant and economic bellwether FedEx Corp. further stoked recession fears, contributing to stock-market losses on Friday.Treasurys also fell, with yield on the 2-year Treasury note soaring to a nearly 15-year high above 3.85% on expectations the Fed will continue pushing rates higher in coming months. Yields rise as prices fall.Investors are operating in an environment where the central bank’s need to rein in stubborn inflation is widely seen having eliminated the notion of a figurative “Fed put” on the stock market.The concept of a Fed put has been around since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.Some economists and analysts have even suggested the Fed should welcome or even aim for market losses, which could serve to tighten financial conditions as investors scale back spending.William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, argued earlier this year that the central bank won’t get a handle on inflation that’s running near a 40-year high unless they make investors suffer. “It’s hard to know how much the Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation under control,” wrote Dudley in a Bloomberg column in April. “But one thing is certain: to be effective, it’ll have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far.”Some market participants aren’t convinced. Aoifinn Devitt, chief investment officer at Moneta,said the Fed likely sees stock-market volatility as a byproduct of its efforts to tighten monetary policy, not an objective.“They recognize that stocks can be collateral damage in a tightening cycle,” but that doesn’t mean that stocks “have to collapse,” Devitt said.The Fed, however, is prepared to tolerate seeing markets decline and the economy slow and even tip into recession as it focuses on taming inflation, she said.The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target rate at a range of 0% to 0.25% between 2008 and 2015, as it dealt with the financial crisis and its aftermath. The Fed also cut rates to near zero again in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. With a rock-bottom interest rate, the Dow skyrocketed over 40%, while the large-cap index S&P 500 jumped over 60% between March 2020 and December 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors got used to “the tailwind for over a decade with falling interest rates” while looking for the Fed to step in with its “put” should the going get rocky, said Courtney at Exencial Wealth Advisors.“I think (now) the Fed message is ‘you’re not gonna get this tailwind anymore’,” Courtney told MarketWatch on Thursday. “I think markets can grow, but they’re gonna have to grow on their own because the markets are like a greenhouse where the temperatures have to be kept at a certain level all day and all night, and I think that’s the message that markets can and should grow on their own without the greenhouse effect.”Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive stance means investors should be prepared for what may be a “few more daily stabs downward” that could eventually prove to be a “final big flush,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, in a Thursday note.“This may sound odd, but if that happens swiftly, meaning within the next couple months, that actually becomes the bull case in my view,” she said. “It could be a quick and painful drop, resulting in a renewed move higher later in the year that’s more durable, as inflation falls more notably.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935759446,"gmtCreate":1663144228385,"gmtModify":1676537213660,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106967510834530","idStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935759446","repostId":"2267530997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2267530997","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1663137951,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2267530997?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-14 14:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Stock Is About to Go Higher, Says Analyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2267530997","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Sometimes timing is everything. And Deutsche Bank believes now is the time to buy beaten up shares o","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Sometimes timing is everything. And Deutsche Bank believes now is the time to buy beaten up shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker XPeng.</p><p>Tuesday, analyst Edison Yu placed a &#34;catalyst Buy call&#34; on American depositary receipts.</p><p>A catalyst call is used by some brokers to demonstrate a sense of urgency because they expect the stock to move soon and for identifiable reasons.</p><p>In the case of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng</a>, Yu is looking at the launch of the G9, a new SUV unveiled this Summer. XPeng took in more than 22,000 reservations the hour after the launch. Pricing is due this month and deliveries are due to start in October.</p><p>Yu expects the SUV price to come in around 400,000 yuan, or about $58,000. The G9 SUV will offer the company&#39;s latest computing platform and driver-assistance software. What&#39;s more, it will be able to charge fast enough to get more than 100 miles of range in about 5 minutes -- as long as the charger can deliver the electricity quickly enough. Yu expects the SUV to be a strong seller for two or three quarters.</p><p>The G9 is a reason to buy the stock now, but Yu has been an XPeng fan for a while -- he&#39;s had a Buy rating on the ADRs since launching coverage back in 2020.. He has a $33 price target.</p><p>XPeng stock looks like it needs a catalyst. Coming into Tuesday trading, ADRs are down about 68% year to date. XPeng has delivered more than 90,000 vehicles in 2022, through August. That&#39;s up from about 46,000 vehicles delivered in the first eight months of 2021. Growth looks solid, but higher interest rates, Covid-19 lockdowns in China, and Chinese/American geopolitical tensions have all weight on investors sentiment.</p><p>The declines have left XPeng ADRs trading for roughly 2.7 times estimated 2023 sales. NIO ( NIO) ADRs, for comparison, trade for about 2.1 times sales, and Li Auto <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a> ADRs trade for about 1.5 times sales. (The three Chinese EV makers aren&#39;t consistently profitable yet.)</p><p>XPeng ADRs are off 2.4% in early Tuesday trading. The entire market is lower after an inflation report came in hotter than expected. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are off 2.3% and 3%, respectively.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Stock Is About to Go Higher, Says Analyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Stock Is About to Go Higher, Says Analyst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-14 14:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Sometimes timing is everything. And Deutsche Bank believes now is the time to buy beaten up shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker XPeng.</p><p>Tuesday, analyst Edison Yu placed a &#34;catalyst Buy call&#34; on American depositary receipts.</p><p>A catalyst call is used by some brokers to demonstrate a sense of urgency because they expect the stock to move soon and for identifiable reasons.</p><p>In the case of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng</a>, Yu is looking at the launch of the G9, a new SUV unveiled this Summer. XPeng took in more than 22,000 reservations the hour after the launch. Pricing is due this month and deliveries are due to start in October.</p><p>Yu expects the SUV price to come in around 400,000 yuan, or about $58,000. The G9 SUV will offer the company&#39;s latest computing platform and driver-assistance software. What&#39;s more, it will be able to charge fast enough to get more than 100 miles of range in about 5 minutes -- as long as the charger can deliver the electricity quickly enough. Yu expects the SUV to be a strong seller for two or three quarters.</p><p>The G9 is a reason to buy the stock now, but Yu has been an XPeng fan for a while -- he&#39;s had a Buy rating on the ADRs since launching coverage back in 2020.. He has a $33 price target.</p><p>XPeng stock looks like it needs a catalyst. Coming into Tuesday trading, ADRs are down about 68% year to date. XPeng has delivered more than 90,000 vehicles in 2022, through August. That&#39;s up from about 46,000 vehicles delivered in the first eight months of 2021. Growth looks solid, but higher interest rates, Covid-19 lockdowns in China, and Chinese/American geopolitical tensions have all weight on investors sentiment.</p><p>The declines have left XPeng ADRs trading for roughly 2.7 times estimated 2023 sales. NIO ( NIO) ADRs, for comparison, trade for about 2.1 times sales, and Li Auto <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$(LI)$</a> ADRs trade for about 1.5 times sales. (The three Chinese EV makers aren&#39;t consistently profitable yet.)</p><p>XPeng ADRs are off 2.4% in early Tuesday trading. The entire market is lower after an inflation report came in hotter than expected. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are off 2.3% and 3%, respectively.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LI":"理想汽车","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4563":"昨日强势股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2267530997","content_text":"Sometimes timing is everything. And Deutsche Bank believes now is the time to buy beaten up shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker XPeng.Tuesday, analyst Edison Yu placed a \"catalyst Buy call\" on American depositary receipts.A catalyst call is used by some brokers to demonstrate a sense of urgency because they expect the stock to move soon and for identifiable reasons.In the case of XPeng, Yu is looking at the launch of the G9, a new SUV unveiled this Summer. XPeng took in more than 22,000 reservations the hour after the launch. Pricing is due this month and deliveries are due to start in October.Yu expects the SUV price to come in around 400,000 yuan, or about $58,000. The G9 SUV will offer the company's latest computing platform and driver-assistance software. What's more, it will be able to charge fast enough to get more than 100 miles of range in about 5 minutes -- as long as the charger can deliver the electricity quickly enough. Yu expects the SUV to be a strong seller for two or three quarters.The G9 is a reason to buy the stock now, but Yu has been an XPeng fan for a while -- he's had a Buy rating on the ADRs since launching coverage back in 2020.. He has a $33 price target.XPeng stock looks like it needs a catalyst. Coming into Tuesday trading, ADRs are down about 68% year to date. XPeng has delivered more than 90,000 vehicles in 2022, through August. That's up from about 46,000 vehicles delivered in the first eight months of 2021. Growth looks solid, but higher interest rates, Covid-19 lockdowns in China, and Chinese/American geopolitical tensions have all weight on investors sentiment.The declines have left XPeng ADRs trading for roughly 2.7 times estimated 2023 sales. NIO ( NIO) ADRs, for comparison, trade for about 2.1 times sales, and Li Auto $(LI)$ ADRs trade for about 1.5 times sales. (The three Chinese EV makers aren't consistently profitable yet.)XPeng ADRs are off 2.4% in early Tuesday trading. The entire market is lower after an inflation report came in hotter than expected. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are off 2.3% and 3%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.6,"09866":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936371405,"gmtCreate":1662716482507,"gmtModify":1676537125958,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106967510834530","idStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936371405","repostId":"1121193410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121193410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662736920,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121193410?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-09 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121193410","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.Howev","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.</li><li>It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.</li><li>However, its June-quarter results topped expectations largely driven by a healthy ramp-up of total deliveries despite all the challenges.</li><li>It also demonstrated its pricing muscle and showed that its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale.</li><li>Going forward, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis and Background</b></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) essentially took a stress test in the past two quarters. And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.</p><p>At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.</p><p>Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.</p><p><b>TSLA’s stress test</b></p><p>The following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.</p><p>Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.</p><p>So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e7881b443d2c420626b971f109ca311\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>TSLA’s fixed cost and variable cost</b></p><p>For a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from <i>A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing</i> by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,</p><blockquote><i>Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.</i></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5c669923352cb292c185f41f4ea4fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au</p><p>The next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.</p><p>You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).</p><p>Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5520e0e03cd80a27fd4c847f92439068\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author</p><p><b>TSLA Stock’s profit and return projections</b></p><p>This next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.</p><p>Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.</p><p>As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.</p><p>For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d10ac6399c754be5f519058eac954f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author: TSLA’s profit and return projections</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc4fe07e1d74f5be8ebf212d915aeb0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Final thoughts and risks</b></p><p>To recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.</p><p>However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880cc09103624085d81075fe424881e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-09 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121193410","content_text":"SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.However, its June-quarter results topped expectations largely driven by a healthy ramp-up of total deliveries despite all the challenges.It also demonstrated its pricing muscle and showed that its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale.Going forward, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree.Thesis and BackgroundTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) essentially took a stress test in the past two quarters. And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.TSLA’s stress testThe following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.Author based on Seeking Alpha dataTSLA’s fixed cost and variable costFor a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. AuThe next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.AuthorTSLA Stock’s profit and return projectionsThis next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.Author: TSLA’s profit and return projectionsSeeking AlphaFinal thoughts and risksTo recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.Seeking Alpha","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938551664,"gmtCreate":1662640311458,"gmtModify":1676537107103,"author":{"id":"4106967510834530","authorId":"4106967510834530","name":"Ted1209","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4106967510834530","idStr":"4106967510834530"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938551664","repostId":"1120069091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}