Jacob X
Jacob X
Made in JapanšŸ™, living in Australia 🦘. Long-term investor, focused on fundamentals.
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avatarJacob X
2025-05-01

Why Investors Should Be Cautious About Overreacting to Q1 2025 Economic Data

Understanding the Q1 Economic Snapshot Q1 2025 economic data, released on 30 April, 2025, paints a concerning picture: U.S. GDP contracted by -0.3% (against expectations of 0.2% growth), inflation metrics like Core PCE hit 3.50% (above the 3.10% forecast), and ADP employment growth for April was a weak 62K (versus 114K expected). At first glance, this suggests a slowing economy with rising inflation—a stagflationary scenario that might prompt investors to panic. However, a deeper look reveals why overreacting to these numbers could be a mistake. Q1 Was Shaped by Tariff Uncertainty, Not Reality The Q1 data (January-March 2025) reflects a period of significant uncertainty. By 31 March, businesses had no concrete details on tariffs, only speculation based on late 2024 campaign promises of bro
Why Investors Should Be Cautious About Overreacting to Q1 2025 Economic Data
avatarJacob X
2025-01-27
$SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF(XSD)$   I don't think the sell-off in semiconductor names really changes the AI narrative at all. AI training costs are falling precipitously - something like 90% a year - so it is only natural that companies can gradually produce equal or better AI models at cheaper prices. This time, there just happens to be a Chinese team who were very clever in doing it, but it is more of a sign to come - and something to just get used to - rather than a thesis-breaker.  Today, the market is pricing in the cost decline, but not the explosive productivity gains that we will eventually see. On other occasions in the future, the opposite will occur. The volatility may be scary, but tech stocks are inherently volatile,
avatarJacob X
2025-02-11

Singapore Banks: A Compelling Investment Case for 2025

$iShares MSCI Singapore ETF(EWS)$   In a world of elevated valuations and uncertain growth prospects, Singapore's banking sector stands out as a rare combination of growth, value, and income. Despite strong performance over the past year, several structural factors suggest there's more room to run. Here's why global investors are increasingly turning their attention to Singapore, particularly its three banking giants: DBS, OCBC, and UOB. Attractive Valuations in an Expensive World Let's start with the numbers that catch every value investor's eye. Singapore's big three banks currently trade at price-to-earnings (PE) ratios between 10-11x while offering dividend yields of 5-6%. To appreciate how attractive these valuations are, let's look at th
Singapore Banks: A Compelling Investment Case for 2025
avatarJacob X
2024-12-28

Why the S&P 500 Could Keep Soaring: A Bull Market From 2025 to 2030

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   As we end 2024, many investors are concerned about the stock market. High valuations, re-inflation risks, and the potential changes under a Trump administration have left some wondering whether it's time to exit. However, a closer look at history and the current economic landscape suggests a strong bull market may be ahead, similar to the 1982 recovery. The S&P 500 could keep climbing with annual returns of 15-20% from 2025 through 2030, potentially pushing its value to 12,000-15,000 by 2030. Concerns: High Valuations and Inflation Many are cautious about the current market. With high valuations and inflation showing signs of a potential resurgence, fears of re-inflati
Why the S&P 500 Could Keep Soaring: A Bull Market From 2025 to 2030
avatarJacob X
2025-02-07

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): Navigating Beyond Apple and China for Long-Term Growth

$Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)$  has recently witnessed a significant stock price drop of 24.67% to $65.60, primarily due to news of reduced content in Apple's upcoming iPhone models. Historically, Apple has been a cornerstone of Skyworks' revenue, contributing around 72% in recent quarters.  Additionally, China, through companies like Huawei and sales of Apple products in the region, has been a crucial market, potentially adding another 20-30% to its revenue pie.  However, with this dependency now under scrutiny, the current market cap of $10.49B might not reflect the full growth potential of Skyworks. For investors focusing on long-term growth, here's how Skyworks is positioned to thrive beyond its reliance on Apple and China
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): Navigating Beyond Apple and China for Long-Term Growth
avatarJacob X
2025-02-04

The Self-Perpetuating Profit Machine: Why Palantir's 388 P/E Might Be "Cheap"

Wall Street analysts often miss the forest for the trees. While they fixate on traditional metrics like P/E ratios, they might be overlooking something extraordinary developing at $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  : the potential emergence of the world's first self-optimizing corporation. The Five Pillars of Infinite Margins 1. The Meta-Software Revolution Imagine software that manages itself. Palantir's Apollo platform isn't just managing client operations—it's perfectly positioned to manage Palantir itself. Every optimization it learns from thousands of client deployments can be turned inward, creating a corporation that continuously improves its own efficiency. Labor costs? Declining. Operational overhead?
The Self-Perpetuating Profit Machine: Why Palantir's 388 P/E Might Be "Cheap"
avatarJacob X
2024-01-08
$iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF(IWN)$ will likely have a very strong year as yields come down and these stocks are very under-owned. '23Q4 saw a lot of buying so it might cool down a little at this point, but Q2 onwards will likely see a breakout and should continue for the rest of '24. This ETF gives you exposure to regional banks which are making a lot of money, and also has a lot of defensive/cyclical sectors like industrials and healthcare.
avatarJacob X
2025-02-26

TSLA Technical & Valuation Analysis: A Cautious Bounce, Possibly Wait for Better Entry for Long-Term Bulls?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  continues to captivate market participants—not only with its role as an innovation leader in the electric vehicle space but also through its dynamic technical and valuation metrics. Recent technical signals, alongside a review of historical valuation data, paint a complex picture that calls for both caution and opportunity. Short-term bullish, mid-term bearish? On the technical front, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling oversold conditions at around 28.87, a level that historically has been followed by a rebound within a few trading days.  TSLA daily RSI @ 28.87, suggesting oversold conditions However, the weekly RSI remains subdued at approximately 44.73, suggesting that while traders mig
TSLA Technical & Valuation Analysis: A Cautious Bounce, Possibly Wait for Better Entry for Long-Term Bulls?
avatarJacob X
2025-01-10

BKLN: An Overlooked High-Yield Opportunity in Senior Loans

For investors seeking income in a shifting economic landscape, the $Invesco Senior Loan ETF(BKLN)$ offers a compelling yet often overlooked opportunity. With its focus on senior bank loans—secured, floating-rate instruments that sit at the top of the capital structure—BKLN delivers high yields while benefiting from improving credit conditions and a supportive economic environment. Key Reasons BKLN Shines 1. Improving Credit Conditions: As corporate balance sheets strengthen, the risk of defaults declines. Senior loans, which have priority over other debts, are positioned to thrive in this low-risk environment. 2. Economic Growth and Productivity Gains: A growing GDP driven by innovation and productivity enhances borrower stability, boosting the a
BKLN: An Overlooked High-Yield Opportunity in Senior Loans
avatarJacob X
2024-07-02
In the short term, it could reach $260 or so very quickly, and there may be some profit taking. There may also be a sell-the-news events in July and August, but if this happens, I am sure long-term players will step up and treat it as a buying opportunity. Looking towards the year end, 2024 may well be the year when the downtrend from 2021 will finally break to the upside.

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