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2022-08-28

Another bear market run.

Why Commodity Prices May Have Peaked

2022-12-04

Yeqh!

2022-08-31

Like

Fed Gets New Path to Go Big as Job Openings, Confidence Surprise

2022-09-06

HArd to read

Where Will the Bear Market Bottom? History Offers a Very Clear Clue

2022-09-03

The a bottom play.

September May Bring The S&P 500 Back To Its June Lows

2022-07-07

Why

Why a Rally in Growth Stocks Could Signal "Peak" Fed Hawkishness Has Passed

2022-11-23

Good

Stocks Making the Biggest Moves After Hours: HP, Manchester United, Nordstrom, Autodesk and More

2022-09-30

Wala

Want to Get Richer? 2 Top Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever

2022-08-27

Nio VS Tesla

NIO Concludes Internal Review of Seller Report; Street Says Buy

2022-07-06

No doubt.

The U.S. Won't Officially Be in Recession If GDP Shrinks Again -- and Here's Why

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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bear market run.","listText":"Another bear market run.","text":"Another bear market run.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994425048","repostId":"1167448448","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167448448","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661786204,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167448448?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-29 23:16","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Why Commodity Prices May Have Peaked","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167448448","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAmong the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Among the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements in the prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities.</li><li>The price of oil decreased by about 30 percent between early June and mid-August. The politically sensitive American price of gasoline also has fallen 20 percent since June, from $5/gallon to $4 in mid-August.</li><li>Real interest rates currently appear to be on a firm upward trend, both because nominal interest rates will rise and because inflation will fall.</li></ul><p>Among the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements in the prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities. It was hard to miss the big rise in commodity prices. The Brent oil price increased from a low $20 a barrel in April 2020, during the first Covid-19 wave, to a peak of $122, in March 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. But it was not just oil. The price of copper doubled over this period. Wheat more than doubled. And so on. Global indices of commodity prices almost tripled from April 2020 to March 2022.</p><p>These figures are in dollars. Prices rose even more when viewed in terms of euros, yen, won, or other currencies.</p><p>Not quite as widely observed is that prices of many commodities fell somewhat over the summer. The price of oil decreased by about 30 percent between early June and mid-August. The politically sensitive American price of gasoline also has fallen 20 percent since June, from $5/gallon to $4 in mid-August. The overall CRB index has fallen 12 percent as of August 17.</p><p>Is this dip in commodity prices just temporary? Or is it a sign that they have peaked and can be expected to fall further in the future?</p><h3>1. Why are prices of different commodities so correlated?</h3><p>Mostly, the prices of different commodities are highly correlated. In many cases, this is due to direct microeconomic linkages. When the price of oil rises, the costs to wheat producers rise, because harvesting equipment runs on diesel while fertilizer is made from natural gas, which puts upward pressure on grain prices. But the correlation across widely disparate energy, mineral and agricultural commodities begs for a macroeconomic explanation.</p><p>There are two macroeconomic reasons to think that commodity prices in general will fall further. One of them is self-evident, the other less so.</p><p>Different stories apply to different commodities, of course, due to microeconomic particulars. The price of natural gas in Europe is bound to rise, as the continent learns to manage winter without Russian gas. But the story is likely to be different elsewhere.</p><h3>2. Global growth</h3><p>The most obvious macroeconomic factor is the overall level of economic activity. GDP is an important determinant of the demand for commodities and therefore their real price. Less obviously, the real interest rate is another determinant. As of now, the outlook for world growth (slowing) and the outlook for interest rates (upward) both suggest a downward path for commodity prices.</p><p>Strong global growth, especially in China, can explain the major upswings of commodity prices in 2004-07, 2010-11, and 2021. Conversely, abrupt recessions can explain the plunge in commodity prices from June 2008 to February 2009 (during the Great Recession), and again from January to April 2020 (in the pandemic recession). This leaves unexplained, for the moment, the spike in commodity prices in the first half of 2008 and the decline in 2014-15.</p><p>Global growth is currently slowing, for well-known reasons. China&#39;s growth rate has faltered dramatically (particularly in the commodity-intensive manufacturing sector). It actually turned negative in the second quarter, as Shanghai and some other cities endured shutdowns in support of a futile zero-Covid policy. Europe is hard-hit by the side effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even US growth is slower in 2022 than it was last year, with many proclaiming that a recession has begun. (Personally, however, I am still willing to bet that no US recession started in the first part of the year and that either first quarter or second quarter GDP will be revised upward by end-September.)</p><p>Overall, according to the IMF&#39;s most recent World Economic Outlook update, global growth is projected to slow substantially, from 6.1 % in 2021, to 3.2 % in 2022 and 2.9 % in 2023. Slowing growth means lower demand for commodities, and hence lower prices.</p><h3>3. Real interest rates</h3><p>In addition, as the Fed and other central banks tighten monetary policy, real interest rates are expected to rise. This is likely to lower commodity prices, and not just because high real interest rates make a recession more likely. Interest rates have an effect independently of GDP, both in theory and statistically.</p><p>The theory of the relationship between interest rates and commodity prices is long-established. I like the &#34;overshooting&#34; formulation of the theory. The simplest intuition behind the relationship is that the interest rate is a &#34;cost of carrying&#34; inventories. A rise in the interest rate reduces firms&#39; demand for holding inventories and therefore reduces the commodity price.</p><p>Three other mechanisms operate, in addition to inventories. First, for an exhaustible resource, an increase in the interest rate increases the incentive to extract today, rather than leaving deposits in the ground for tomorrow. Second, for commodities that have been &#34;financialized,&#34; an increase in the interest rate encourages institutional investors to shift out of the commodities asset class and into treasury bills. Third, for a commodity that is internationally traded, an increase in the domestic real interest rate may cause a real appreciation of the domestic currency, which works to lower the domestic-currency price of the commodity.</p><p>The relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices is also established statistically, by econometric analyses that range from:</p><p>i) simple correlations; to</p><p>ii) regressions that control for other important determinants, such as GDP and inventories in a &#34;carry trade&#34; model; to</p><p>iii) high-frequency event studies, which are much less sensitive to the econometric problems of the regressions, namely issues of causality and time series properties.</p><p>Two episodes illustrate the claim that the effect of monetary policy operates independently of the effect of GDP. Neither the spike in dollar commodity prices in the first half of 2008 nor the decline in 2014-15 can be explained by fluctuations in economic activity; but they can be interpreted as the result of easy US monetary policy (QE) and tightening US monetary policy (the end of QE), respectively.</p><p>Real interest rates currently appear to be on a firm upward trend, both because nominal interest rates will rise and because inflation will fall. That could mean that real prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural products are on their way down.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Commodity Prices May Have Peaked</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Commodity Prices May Have Peaked\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-29 23:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537465-why-commodity-prices-may-peaked><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAmong the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements in the prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities.The price of oil decreased by about 30...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537465-why-commodity-prices-may-peaked\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537465-why-commodity-prices-may-peaked","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167448448","content_text":"SummaryAmong the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements in the prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities.The price of oil decreased by about 30 percent between early June and mid-August. The politically sensitive American price of gasoline also has fallen 20 percent since June, from $5/gallon to $4 in mid-August.Real interest rates currently appear to be on a firm upward trend, both because nominal interest rates will rise and because inflation will fall.Among the most salient of economic developments in the last two years have been big movements in the prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities. It was hard to miss the big rise in commodity prices. The Brent oil price increased from a low $20 a barrel in April 2020, during the first Covid-19 wave, to a peak of $122, in March 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. But it was not just oil. The price of copper doubled over this period. Wheat more than doubled. And so on. Global indices of commodity prices almost tripled from April 2020 to March 2022.These figures are in dollars. Prices rose even more when viewed in terms of euros, yen, won, or other currencies.Not quite as widely observed is that prices of many commodities fell somewhat over the summer. The price of oil decreased by about 30 percent between early June and mid-August. The politically sensitive American price of gasoline also has fallen 20 percent since June, from $5/gallon to $4 in mid-August. The overall CRB index has fallen 12 percent as of August 17.Is this dip in commodity prices just temporary? Or is it a sign that they have peaked and can be expected to fall further in the future?1. Why are prices of different commodities so correlated?Mostly, the prices of different commodities are highly correlated. In many cases, this is due to direct microeconomic linkages. When the price of oil rises, the costs to wheat producers rise, because harvesting equipment runs on diesel while fertilizer is made from natural gas, which puts upward pressure on grain prices. But the correlation across widely disparate energy, mineral and agricultural commodities begs for a macroeconomic explanation.There are two macroeconomic reasons to think that commodity prices in general will fall further. One of them is self-evident, the other less so.Different stories apply to different commodities, of course, due to microeconomic particulars. The price of natural gas in Europe is bound to rise, as the continent learns to manage winter without Russian gas. But the story is likely to be different elsewhere.2. Global growthThe most obvious macroeconomic factor is the overall level of economic activity. GDP is an important determinant of the demand for commodities and therefore their real price. Less obviously, the real interest rate is another determinant. As of now, the outlook for world growth (slowing) and the outlook for interest rates (upward) both suggest a downward path for commodity prices.Strong global growth, especially in China, can explain the major upswings of commodity prices in 2004-07, 2010-11, and 2021. Conversely, abrupt recessions can explain the plunge in commodity prices from June 2008 to February 2009 (during the Great Recession), and again from January to April 2020 (in the pandemic recession). This leaves unexplained, for the moment, the spike in commodity prices in the first half of 2008 and the decline in 2014-15.Global growth is currently slowing, for well-known reasons. China's growth rate has faltered dramatically (particularly in the commodity-intensive manufacturing sector). It actually turned negative in the second quarter, as Shanghai and some other cities endured shutdowns in support of a futile zero-Covid policy. Europe is hard-hit by the side effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even US growth is slower in 2022 than it was last year, with many proclaiming that a recession has begun. (Personally, however, I am still willing to bet that no US recession started in the first part of the year and that either first quarter or second quarter GDP will be revised upward by end-September.)Overall, according to the IMF's most recent World Economic Outlook update, global growth is projected to slow substantially, from 6.1 % in 2021, to 3.2 % in 2022 and 2.9 % in 2023. Slowing growth means lower demand for commodities, and hence lower prices.3. Real interest ratesIn addition, as the Fed and other central banks tighten monetary policy, real interest rates are expected to rise. This is likely to lower commodity prices, and not just because high real interest rates make a recession more likely. Interest rates have an effect independently of GDP, both in theory and statistically.The theory of the relationship between interest rates and commodity prices is long-established. I like the \"overshooting\" formulation of the theory. The simplest intuition behind the relationship is that the interest rate is a \"cost of carrying\" inventories. A rise in the interest rate reduces firms' demand for holding inventories and therefore reduces the commodity price.Three other mechanisms operate, in addition to inventories. First, for an exhaustible resource, an increase in the interest rate increases the incentive to extract today, rather than leaving deposits in the ground for tomorrow. Second, for commodities that have been \"financialized,\" an increase in the interest rate encourages institutional investors to shift out of the commodities asset class and into treasury bills. Third, for a commodity that is internationally traded, an increase in the domestic real interest rate may cause a real appreciation of the domestic currency, which works to lower the domestic-currency price of the commodity.The relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices is also established statistically, by econometric analyses that range from:i) simple correlations; toii) regressions that control for other important determinants, such as GDP and inventories in a \"carry trade\" model; toiii) high-frequency event studies, which are much less sensitive to the econometric problems of the regressions, namely issues of causality and time series properties.Two episodes illustrate the claim that the effect of monetary policy operates independently of the effect of GDP. Neither the spike in dollar commodity prices in the first half of 2008 nor the decline in 2014-15 can be explained by fluctuations in economic activity; but they can be interpreted as the result of easy US monetary policy (QE) and tightening US monetary policy (the end of QE), respectively.Real interest rates currently appear to be on a firm upward trend, both because nominal interest rates will rise and because inflation will fall. That could mean that real prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural products are on their way down.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964690596,"gmtCreate":1670126776115,"gmtModify":1676538307562,"author":{"id":"4112665382539382","authorId":"4112665382539382","name":"silverkapow","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718cdb13d69574d40a4358851db4fa1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112665382539382","idStr":"4112665382539382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeqh!","listText":"Yeqh!","text":"Yeqh!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964690596","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930169391,"gmtCreate":1661913361516,"gmtModify":1676536603091,"author":{"id":"4112665382539382","authorId":"4112665382539382","name":"silverkapow","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718cdb13d69574d40a4358851db4fa1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112665382539382","idStr":"4112665382539382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930169391","repostId":"1113965751","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113965751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661903685,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113965751?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-31 07:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Gets New Path to Go Big as Job Openings, Confidence Surprise","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113965751","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Two indicators top forecasts, pointing to strength in demandStrong data complicates Fed’s job to tam","content":"<div>\n<p>Two indicators top forecasts, pointing to strength in demandStrong data complicates Fed’s job to tamp down inflationUS jobs openings and a consumer confidence gauge both topped forecasts, pointing to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-30/fed-gets-more-data-to-go-big-in-job-openings-confidence-reports\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Gets New Path to Go Big as Job Openings, Confidence Surprise</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Gets New Path to Go Big as Job Openings, Confidence Surprise\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-31 07:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-30/fed-gets-more-data-to-go-big-in-job-openings-confidence-reports><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Two indicators top forecasts, pointing to strength in demandStrong data complicates Fed’s job to tamp down inflationUS jobs openings and a consumer confidence gauge both topped forecasts, pointing to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-30/fed-gets-more-data-to-go-big-in-job-openings-confidence-reports\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-30/fed-gets-more-data-to-go-big-in-job-openings-confidence-reports","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113965751","content_text":"Two indicators top forecasts, pointing to strength in demandStrong data complicates Fed’s job to tamp down inflationUS jobs openings and a consumer confidence gauge both topped forecasts, pointing to strength in household and labor demand that risks sustaining inflationary pressures and raises the prospects for a third straight 75 basis-point interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve.The Conference Board’s August index of sentiment rose to athree-month high, and the report also showed firmer buying plans for appliances and cars. Job vacancies, meanwhile, unexpectedly increased to11.2 millionin July, close to a record and underscoring persistent tightness in the labor market.One job-market indicator scrutinized by Fed Chair Jerome Powell -- the number of jobs available per unemployed person in the country -- rose to about 2 in July.Combined, the figures show rock-solid labor demand and resilient household demand even as US central bankers step harder on the monetary policy brakes. Without a commensurate slowdown in consumer spending and an easing of wage pressure, the Fed’s fight to bring inflation down from decades-high levels will be that much more difficult.“The Fed’s efforts to temper demand for labor still have a long way to go,” Wells Fargo & Co. economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese said in a note. “The ratio of job openings per unemployed worker rebounded back up to 2.0 in another sign that the stark imbalances between the supply and demand for workers have yet to ease, let alone resolve.”Powell said in a speech Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual policy forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that bringing price pressures down toward the Fed’s 2% target was the central bank’s “overarching focus right now.”Fed officials lifted rates by 75 basis points at each of their last two meetings and Powell has said that another unusually large increase of this size could be on the table when they next meet Sept. 20-21. Policy makers have said the decision will be determined by economic data, including the monthly jobs report due Friday and another update on consumer prices that will be released in two weeks.The surprise strength in Tuesday’s indicators suggests that labor demand isn’t likely to abate soon, in spite of the rising interest rates. The consumer confidence gauge showed that Americans are growing more optimistic about the economy amid falling gasoline prices -- even as the costs of other essential items including food continue to rise at a quick pace.“That lends itself to the narrative that if consumers are more confident, they’ll keep on spending, and maybe that means inflationary pressures that will keep the Fed on their tightening path,” said Derek Holt, an economist at Scotiabank who expects the Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points in September.Following hawkish comments from Powell and other policy makers in Jackson Hole, investors are leaning toward a 75-basis-point hike, according to prices of futures contracts linked to the US central bank’s benchmark rate.On the job-market front, vacancies have exceeded 11 million for eight-straight months and the unemployment rate remains historically low.Some of the largest increases in vacancies were in retail trade, and transportation, warehousing and utilities. Arts, entertainment and recreation also posted more openings from the prior month, and so did federal government and state and local government education.“Demand for labor shows no sign of cooling despite the Fed’s efforts to slow it down. Job openings failed to decline in July and the ratio of job openings per unemployed -- one of the Fed’s preferred measures of labor-market tightness -- remained near a record high. That suggests the central bank needs to keep on an aggressive rate-hike course, tipping the scale toward a 75-basis-point increase at the September FOMC meeting.”-- Eliza Winger, economistSome measures did indicate a slight tempering of wage growth down the road. The share of Americans quitting their private-sector jobseased last monthto the lowest level since May 2021.In the Conference Board report, the share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” decreased slightly to 48%. However, six months from now, more respondents expected business conditions to improve. They said they are slightly more positive about their short-term financial prospects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931118154,"gmtCreate":1662422519078,"gmtModify":1676537054989,"author":{"id":"4112665382539382","authorId":"4112665382539382","name":"silverkapow","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718cdb13d69574d40a4358851db4fa1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112665382539382","idStr":"4112665382539382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"HArd to read&nbsp;","listText":"HArd to read&nbsp;","text":"HArd to read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931118154","repostId":"2264710715","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2264710715","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662421459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2264710715?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-06 07:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will the Bear Market Bottom? History Offers a Very Clear Clue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2264710715","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Two indicators with a successful history of calling bottoms provide a range of where the S&P 500 could eventually bounce.","content":"<div>\n<p>You probably don't need me to tell you this, but 2022 has been one of the most challenging years on record for everyone from Wall Street professionals to everyday investors. The first half of the year...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/04/where-will-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-clue/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will the Bear Market Bottom? History Offers a Very Clear Clue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will the Bear Market Bottom? History Offers a Very Clear Clue\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-06 07:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/04/where-will-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-clue/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You probably don't need me to tell you this, but 2022 has been one of the most challenging years on record for everyone from Wall Street professionals to everyday investors. The first half of the year...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/04/where-will-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-clue/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/04/where-will-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-clue/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2264710715","content_text":"You probably don't need me to tell you this, but 2022 has been one of the most challenging years on record for everyone from Wall Street professionals to everyday investors. The first half of the year saw the benchmark S&P 500, which is the broadest barometer of stock-market health, produce its worst return in 52 years. The growth-dependent Nasdaq Composite fared even worse, with the index losing as much as a third of its value on a peak-to-trough basis.With two of Wall Street's big three indexes falling into bear market territory -- the timeless Dow Jones Industrial Average maxed out at a peak decline of 19% -- and testing the resolve of investors, the critical question has become: \"Where will the bear market bottom?\"Image source: Getty Images.While the official answer is that we don't know with any certainty, history offers a number of very clear clues as to where the S&P 500 could trough. In particular, two indicators provide a range of where we can expect the bear market to bottom.Valuation plays a key role during bear marketsWhereas Wall Street is willing to tolerate higher valuations when the U.S. and global economy are firing on all cylinders, analysts and investors become much more critical of stock valuations when corrections and bear markets arise. That's why the S&P 500's forward-year price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio can come in handy.The S&P 500's forward P/E divides the aggregate point value of the S&P 500 Index into the consensus earnings-per-share forecast for Wall Street in the upcoming year (in this instance, 2023).With two exceptions -- the Great Recession between 2007 and 2009, where valuations were truly depressed given the uncertain state of the U.S. financial system, and the double-digit percentage pullback for the broader market in 2011 -- the S&P 500's forward P/E has accurately predicted the bottom of every other notable decline since the mid-1990s. Specifically, we've witnessed the benchmark index's forward-year P/E bottom between 13 and 14. This is where the S&P 500 found its bottom following the dot-com bubble in 2002, during the nearly 20% pullback in the fourth quarter of 2018, and following the coronavirus crash.As of Aug. 31, the S&P 500's forward-year P/E stood at 16.8. Based on the noted range of 13 to 14, this would imply further downside to the S&P 500 of 16.7% to 22.6%. In other words, as long as the earnings component of the benchmark index doesn't drastically change, this indicator would imply a bear-market bottom between 3,061 and 3,296.Image source: Getty Images.Margin debt tells a grimmer storyWhile the S&P 500's forward-year P/E ratio provides an upper bound of where history would suggest the bear market is headed, outstanding margin debt tells a more worrisome story.\"Margin debt\" describes the amount of money being borrowed, with interest, by investors to purchase or short-sell securities. Although it's perfectly normal for margin debt to increase over time as the value of U.S. equities grows, it's anything but normal to see margin debt rise significantly, on a percentage basis, over a short period.Since 1995, there have only been three instances where margin debt increased by 60% or more on a trailing-12-month basis. It occurred immediately prior to the dot-com bubble bursting in 2000, just months prior to the financial crisis taking shape in 2007, and once more in 2021. Following the previous two instances where margin debt skyrocketed in excess of 60% in the trailing-12-month period, the S&P 500 lost 49% and 57% of its respective value before finding a bottom.If we simplify this to a general loss of 50% of the S&P 500's value, the bottom range for the index, based on what margin debt history tells us, is 2,409 (half of the 4,818 intra-day high).In other words, two leading indicators with a history of successfully calling a number of bear-market bottoms suggest the S&P 500 could fall to 2,409 in a worst-case scenario, or bounce up to 3,296 if corporate earnings hold up better than expected.^SPX data by YCharts.The one figure more powerful than any bear-market-bottom indicatorObviously, these indicators could be wrong, and the June 2022 bear-market low of 3,636 could hold firm for the S&P 500. If there were indicators that were right 100% of the time, every Wall Street professional and retail investor would be using them by now.Regardless of whether the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones industrial Average have already found their respective bottoms or still have additional downside, one figure does offer a practical guarantee -- and all it requires is your patience.Every year, stock-market analytics provider Crestmont Research publishes data highlighting the 20-year rolling total returns (which include dividends paid) for the S&P 500 since 1919. In other words, Crestmont is looking at the average annual total return investors would have made by buying and holding an S&P 500 tracking index for 20 years over each of the past 103 end years (1919-2021).The result? Investors made money 103 out of 103 times if they purchased an S&P 500 tracking index and held it for 20 years. What's more, approximately 40% of these 103 end years produced an average annual total return of at least 10.9%. Investors weren't just scraping by holding an S&P 500 index. They were doubling their money about every seven years in roughly 40% of all rolling 20-year periods.That means that investors shouldn't be afraid to put money to work on Wall Street either now or in the future. If you're a long-term investor, time is a far more powerful ally than any bear-market bottom indicator.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933923586,"gmtCreate":1662204324946,"gmtModify":1676537017913,"author":{"id":"4112665382539382","authorId":"4112665382539382","name":"silverkapow","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718cdb13d69574d40a4358851db4fa1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112665382539382","idStr":"4112665382539382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The a bottom play.","listText":"The a bottom play.","text":"The a bottom play.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933923586","repostId":"1184784977","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184784977","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662174038,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184784977?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-03 11:00","market":"other","language":"en","title":"September May Bring The S&P 500 Back To Its June Lows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184784977","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 has fallen sharply in recent days, as the dovish pivot has vanished.An FOMC meeti","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 has fallen sharply in recent days, as the dovish pivot has vanished.</li><li>An FOMC meeting and a slew of economic data will make September very volatile.</li><li>Rising rates and uncertainty could put the June lows in play.</li></ul><p>Stocks are off to a turbulent start in September, as the Fed crushed all hopes of a dovish pivot at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday. To make matters worse, September will hold several key economic data points and an FOMC meeting which could create even more volatility in a seasonally lousy time.</p><p>Today&#39;s job report appeared a bit weaker on the surface due to the rising unemployment rate. However, the jobs data showed that the pace of hiring in the economy is still strong, and wage growth remains elevated, despite rising slower than inflation.</p><p>The increase in unemployment was driven mainly by the number of workers not in the workforce dropping by 613,000 while the population growth increased by 172,000. This increased the civilian labor force by 786,000, with 442,000 finding work and 344,000 moving into the unemployed column. Unemployment didn&#39;t rise because people were losing jobs; unemployment increased because people were pulled into the labor force, perhaps because of solid wage growth, which increased by 5.2% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84ce593ffddaaaf877449fe8aa645d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>BLS.GOV</p><p>More interesting is that the pace of hiring in the household survey accelerated in August and increased at its fastest rate since March 2022. None of the data from the unemployment report would suggest the Fed is likely to do anything different than it has previously indicated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/791401f8937b11a9c345764a956dbed6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Meanwhile, CPI is likely still tracking above 8% for August and September, based on the Cleveland Fed estimates. Currently, estimates are for a year-over-year inflation rate of 8.3% for August, and 8.4% for September. Meanwhile, core CPI is forecast to rise by 6.25% in August and 6.6% in September. The increase in CPI for August would be slightly slower than 8.5% for July, while core CPI would be somewhat faster than the 5.9% y/y change.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e19e82ac100d02e922240146dd66a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>A rising core CPI and a strong employment report could push the Fed to raise rates by 75 bps in September. While markets are leaning towards a 75 bps rate hike in September, they aren&#39;t convinced, with current odds at just 62%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0ea44418c49e83255c4d0524d70bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CME Group</p><p>On top of that September tends to be, on average over the past 30 years, the weakest month with an average decline of -0.34%. The declines have been as much as 11%, and the gains have been as much as 8.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/779c427f3192a6ad21f8686b92e742f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Valuation Is Rich Versus Bonds</b></p><p>Data and questions around the next Fed meeting will create a lot of volatility in an already weak time of the year. Interest rates have risen dramatically since Jackson Hole, pushing the S&amp;P 500&#39;s valuation to historically high levels relative to the 10-yr yield, with a current spread between the earnings yield and the 10-yr rate now at 2.47%. But given, that spread should be widening because that is what happens when financial conditions tighten, it tells us that stocks are overvalued currently versus bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5d69d23d8cf6e3e3a3fc0d6ef85286\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>With a nominal 10-Yr rate hovering around 3.25%, if the spread between the S&amp;P 500 earnings yield and the 10-Yr rate moves up to 3%, it would assume an earnings yield for the S&amp;P 500 of 6.25%, or a PE Ratio of 16, which is about 9% lower than the S&amp;P&#39;s current PE of roughly 17.6. That would equate to a value on the S&amp;P 500 of approximately 3,640 and close to the June lows.</p><p><b>June Lows Are In-Play</b></p><p>The likelihood of the S&amp;P 500 retesting those June lows seems to be increasing, and today&#39;s job data isn&#39;t likely to help. The fact of the matter is that rates are rising, and the August jobs data do not suggest the Fed should slow rate hikes or change its policy path, and the CPI data isn&#39;t likely to either. This means the Fed should remain on course to raise rates to around 4% by the middle of 2023, as the Fed Funds Futures are pricing. Given that, it will be tough for an equity rally to see a sustained advance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df38f9295305d9279da28bfae09f5b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>As rates continue to price higher, not only will nominal rates climb, but so will real rates, and currently, the 5-year and 10-Yr TIP rates have climbed right back to or above their cycle highs. This means that if real rates are rising, shouldn&#39;t the earnings yield of the S&amp;P 500 be rising too? After all, they have followed each other this closely for the past five years; shouldn&#39;t that continue well into the future?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d089ca0d6d95c63abe24819e26ed648\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Unless, of course, you still think the Fed will make a dovish pivot.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September May Bring The S&P 500 Back To Its June Lows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember May Bring The S&P 500 Back To Its June Lows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-03 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538702-september-may-bring-the-s-and-p-500-back-to-its-june-lows><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 has fallen sharply in recent days, as the dovish pivot has vanished.An FOMC meeting and a slew of economic data will make September very volatile.Rising rates and uncertainty could ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538702-september-may-bring-the-s-and-p-500-back-to-its-june-lows\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538702-september-may-bring-the-s-and-p-500-back-to-its-june-lows","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184784977","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 has fallen sharply in recent days, as the dovish pivot has vanished.An FOMC meeting and a slew of economic data will make September very volatile.Rising rates and uncertainty could put the June lows in play.Stocks are off to a turbulent start in September, as the Fed crushed all hopes of a dovish pivot at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday. To make matters worse, September will hold several key economic data points and an FOMC meeting which could create even more volatility in a seasonally lousy time.Today's job report appeared a bit weaker on the surface due to the rising unemployment rate. However, the jobs data showed that the pace of hiring in the economy is still strong, and wage growth remains elevated, despite rising slower than inflation.The increase in unemployment was driven mainly by the number of workers not in the workforce dropping by 613,000 while the population growth increased by 172,000. This increased the civilian labor force by 786,000, with 442,000 finding work and 344,000 moving into the unemployed column. Unemployment didn't rise because people were losing jobs; unemployment increased because people were pulled into the labor force, perhaps because of solid wage growth, which increased by 5.2% year-over-year.BLS.GOVMore interesting is that the pace of hiring in the household survey accelerated in August and increased at its fastest rate since March 2022. None of the data from the unemployment report would suggest the Fed is likely to do anything different than it has previously indicated.BloombergMeanwhile, CPI is likely still tracking above 8% for August and September, based on the Cleveland Fed estimates. Currently, estimates are for a year-over-year inflation rate of 8.3% for August, and 8.4% for September. Meanwhile, core CPI is forecast to rise by 6.25% in August and 6.6% in September. The increase in CPI for August would be slightly slower than 8.5% for July, while core CPI would be somewhat faster than the 5.9% y/y change.BloombergA rising core CPI and a strong employment report could push the Fed to raise rates by 75 bps in September. While markets are leaning towards a 75 bps rate hike in September, they aren't convinced, with current odds at just 62%.CME GroupOn top of that September tends to be, on average over the past 30 years, the weakest month with an average decline of -0.34%. The declines have been as much as 11%, and the gains have been as much as 8.8%.BloombergS&P 500 Valuation Is Rich Versus BondsData and questions around the next Fed meeting will create a lot of volatility in an already weak time of the year. Interest rates have risen dramatically since Jackson Hole, pushing the S&P 500's valuation to historically high levels relative to the 10-yr yield, with a current spread between the earnings yield and the 10-yr rate now at 2.47%. But given, that spread should be widening because that is what happens when financial conditions tighten, it tells us that stocks are overvalued currently versus bonds.BloombergWith a nominal 10-Yr rate hovering around 3.25%, if the spread between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the 10-Yr rate moves up to 3%, it would assume an earnings yield for the S&P 500 of 6.25%, or a PE Ratio of 16, which is about 9% lower than the S&P's current PE of roughly 17.6. That would equate to a value on the S&P 500 of approximately 3,640 and close to the June lows.June Lows Are In-PlayThe likelihood of the S&P 500 retesting those June lows seems to be increasing, and today's job data isn't likely to help. The fact of the matter is that rates are rising, and the August jobs data do not suggest the Fed should slow rate hikes or change its policy path, and the CPI data isn't likely to either. This means the Fed should remain on course to raise rates to around 4% by the middle of 2023, as the Fed Funds Futures are pricing. Given that, it will be tough for an equity rally to see a sustained advance.BloombergAs rates continue to price higher, not only will nominal rates climb, but so will real rates, and currently, the 5-year and 10-Yr TIP rates have climbed right back to or above their cycle highs. This means that if real rates are rising, shouldn't the earnings yield of the S&P 500 be rising too? After all, they have followed each other this closely for the past five years; shouldn't that continue well into the future?BloombergUnless, of course, you still think the Fed will make a dovish pivot.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079811983,"gmtCreate":1657168897042,"gmtModify":1676535963460,"author":{"id":"4112665382539382","authorId":"4112665382539382","name":"silverkapow","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718cdb13d69574d40a4358851db4fa1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112665382539382","idStr":"4112665382539382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why&nbsp;","listText":"Why&nbsp;","text":"Why","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079811983","repostId":"2249546463","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2249546463","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1657149693,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249546463?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 07:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why a Rally in Growth Stocks Could Signal \"Peak\" Fed Hawkishness Has Passed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249546463","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If tech can sustain outperformance that will mean the market thinks the Fed has passed 'peak hawkish","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>If tech can sustain outperformance that will mean the market thinks the Fed has passed &#39;peak hawkishness,&#39; according to Sevens Report</p><p>Growth stocks have outperformed value equities recently as investors begin to question if the Federal Reserve has passed peak hawkishness already with its plans to raise rates to combat high inflation.</p><p>Recent bets on fed-funds futures have pointed toward a potential pivot back to rate cuts at some point next year, while 10-year yields on U.S. government debt have fallen below 3%. Corporate bond spreads have widened as recession worries bubble up. But thedecline in Treasury yields appears to be giving a lift to technology and other growth stocks over value-oriented equities.</p><p>&#34;While it&#39;s too early to declare the value outperformance &#39;over,&#39; we do think the outperformance of tech recently is notable, because if it continues that will be a strong signal that the market is now looking past future rates hikes towards eventual rate cuts in 2023,&#34; said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note Wednesday. &#34;If tech can mount sustained outperformance that will tell us the market thinks the Fed has passed &#39;peak hawkishness.&#39;&#34;</p><p>Long-term Treasury yields have been falling recently because investors are worried that the U.S. economy is slowing and &#34;a recession is a distinct possibility,&#34; said Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, by phone.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped as high as about 3.482% in June, before falling Tuesday to 2.808%--the lowest since May 27 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That compares with a yield of about 1.5% at the end of 2021, when investors were anticipating that the Fed was gearing up to hike its benchmark rate to curb hot inflation.</p><p>The Fed raised its benchmark rate in March for the first time since 2018, lifting it a quarter percentage point from near zero while laying out plans for further increases as inflation was running at the hottest pace in 40 years. Since then, the central bank has become more hawkish, announcing larger rate hikes as the cost of living has remained stubbornly high.</p><p>That has made investors anxious that the Fed risks causing a recession by potentially being too aggressive to bring runaway inflation under control.</p><p>Read:Fed&#39;s Waller backs another jumbo 75 bp interest-rate hike in July</p><p>But now slowing growth has some investors questioning how long the Fed will continue on an aggressive path of monetary tightening, even though it began hiking rates just this year.</p><h2>Recession worries</h2><p>The yield curve spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury rates briefly inverted on July 5 for the first time since mid-June, another sign that the U.S. may be facing a recession, although this time against a backdrop of declining rates, according to Graff. The yield curve was inverted on Wednesday afternoon, with two-year yields  slightly higher than 10-year rates , FactSet data show.</p><p>In Graff&#39;s view, the corporate bond market also has been flashing recession concerns.</p><p>&#34;Investment-grade corporate spreads are about as wide as they&#39;ve been any time&#34; outside of a  recession in the last 25 years, said Graff. That doesn&#39;t mean there&#39;s &#34;100% odds&#34; of an economic contraction, he said, &#34;but it&#39;s definitely clearly showing credit markets think there&#39;s a risk.&#34;</p><p>Spreads over Treasurys for high-yield debt, or junk bonds, have similarly increased, according to Graff.</p><p>&#34;U.S. corporate bond spreads continue to move higher even though 10-year Treasury yields peaked 3 weeks ago,&#34; said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note emailed July 6. &#34;Spreads tend to rise when markets are increasingly uncertain about future corporate cash flows, and that has been the case most of this year.&#34;</p><p>Investors worry about cash flows drying up in an economic slowdown as that may hinder companies from reinvesting in their businesses, or make it more difficult for cash-strapped borrowers to meet their financial obligations.</p><p>The U.S. stock market has sunk this year after a repricing of valuations that looked stretched as rates rose. Growth stocks, including shares of technology-related companies, have taken a steep drop in 2022.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 29.5% during the first half of this year, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20.6%.</p><p>Growth stocks are particularly sensitive to rising rates as their anticipated cash flow streams are far out into the future. But with rates recently falling amid recession concerns, they&#39;ve recently been gaining ground after being trounced by value-style bets over a stretch that began late last year.</p><p>Since June 10, the Russell 1000 Growth Index  has eked out a gain of 0.5% through Wednesday,  while the Russell 1000 Value Index  dropped about 3.7% over the same period, FactSet data show.</p><p>Upcoming company earnings reports for the second quarter should give investors a &#34;clearer picture&#34; of what companies expect in terms of demand for their goods and services in the second half of 2022, as well as which direction stocks will be headed, according to Graff.</p><p>&#34;Some amount of earnings slowdown is priced in,&#34; he said of the equities market. &#34;In our view, if earnings are mildly lower in the second half but companies see them rebounding in &#39;23, that&#39;s probably a pretty good outcome for stocks.&#34;</p><p>In prior recessions, the average earnings drop for the S&amp;P 500 was 13%, with the global financial crisis, or GFC, skewing the results, according to Tony DeSpirito, BlackRock&#39;s chief investment officer for U.S. fundamental equities. A chart in his third-quarter outlook report illustrates this finding.</p><p>&#34;We are not calling for a recession, but we are cognizant that the risks of a recession are rising,&#34; DeSpirito said in the note. &#34;The Fed is tightening monetary policy, bringing an end to &#39;easy money&#39; policies,&#34; he said, while 30-year mortgage rates have about doubled since last year to nearly 6% today, inflation is starting to &#34;erode household savings&#34; and &#34;inventories of goods are elevated as both pandemic-induced supply shortages and voracious demand ease.&#34;</p><p>All three major U.S. stock benchmarks ended Wednesday higher after the release of minutes of the Fed&#39;s last policy meeting. The S&amp;P 500  gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite  rose 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average  edged up 0.2%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why a Rally in Growth Stocks Could Signal \"Peak\" Fed Hawkishness Has Passed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy a Rally in Growth Stocks Could Signal \"Peak\" Fed Hawkishness Has Passed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-07 07:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>If tech can sustain outperformance that will mean the market thinks the Fed has passed &#39;peak hawkishness,&#39; according to Sevens Report</p><p>Growth stocks have outperformed value equities recently as investors begin to question if the Federal Reserve has passed peak hawkishness already with its plans to raise rates to combat high inflation.</p><p>Recent bets on fed-funds futures have pointed toward a potential pivot back to rate cuts at some point next year, while 10-year yields on U.S. government debt have fallen below 3%. Corporate bond spreads have widened as recession worries bubble up. But thedecline in Treasury yields appears to be giving a lift to technology and other growth stocks over value-oriented equities.</p><p>&#34;While it&#39;s too early to declare the value outperformance &#39;over,&#39; we do think the outperformance of tech recently is notable, because if it continues that will be a strong signal that the market is now looking past future rates hikes towards eventual rate cuts in 2023,&#34; said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note Wednesday. &#34;If tech can mount sustained outperformance that will tell us the market thinks the Fed has passed &#39;peak hawkishness.&#39;&#34;</p><p>Long-term Treasury yields have been falling recently because investors are worried that the U.S. economy is slowing and &#34;a recession is a distinct possibility,&#34; said Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, by phone.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped as high as about 3.482% in June, before falling Tuesday to 2.808%--the lowest since May 27 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That compares with a yield of about 1.5% at the end of 2021, when investors were anticipating that the Fed was gearing up to hike its benchmark rate to curb hot inflation.</p><p>The Fed raised its benchmark rate in March for the first time since 2018, lifting it a quarter percentage point from near zero while laying out plans for further increases as inflation was running at the hottest pace in 40 years. Since then, the central bank has become more hawkish, announcing larger rate hikes as the cost of living has remained stubbornly high.</p><p>That has made investors anxious that the Fed risks causing a recession by potentially being too aggressive to bring runaway inflation under control.</p><p>Read:Fed&#39;s Waller backs another jumbo 75 bp interest-rate hike in July</p><p>But now slowing growth has some investors questioning how long the Fed will continue on an aggressive path of monetary tightening, even though it began hiking rates just this year.</p><h2>Recession worries</h2><p>The yield curve spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury rates briefly inverted on July 5 for the first time since mid-June, another sign that the U.S. may be facing a recession, although this time against a backdrop of declining rates, according to Graff. The yield curve was inverted on Wednesday afternoon, with two-year yields  slightly higher than 10-year rates , FactSet data show.</p><p>In Graff&#39;s view, the corporate bond market also has been flashing recession concerns.</p><p>&#34;Investment-grade corporate spreads are about as wide as they&#39;ve been any time&#34; outside of a  recession in the last 25 years, said Graff. That doesn&#39;t mean there&#39;s &#34;100% odds&#34; of an economic contraction, he said, &#34;but it&#39;s definitely clearly showing credit markets think there&#39;s a risk.&#34;</p><p>Spreads over Treasurys for high-yield debt, or junk bonds, have similarly increased, according to Graff.</p><p>&#34;U.S. corporate bond spreads continue to move higher even though 10-year Treasury yields peaked 3 weeks ago,&#34; said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note emailed July 6. &#34;Spreads tend to rise when markets are increasingly uncertain about future corporate cash flows, and that has been the case most of this year.&#34;</p><p>Investors worry about cash flows drying up in an economic slowdown as that may hinder companies from reinvesting in their businesses, or make it more difficult for cash-strapped borrowers to meet their financial obligations.</p><p>The U.S. stock market has sunk this year after a repricing of valuations that looked stretched as rates rose. Growth stocks, including shares of technology-related companies, have taken a steep drop in 2022.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 29.5% during the first half of this year, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20.6%.</p><p>Growth stocks are particularly sensitive to rising rates as their anticipated cash flow streams are far out into the future. But with rates recently falling amid recession concerns, they&#39;ve recently been gaining ground after being trounced by value-style bets over a stretch that began late last year.</p><p>Since June 10, the Russell 1000 Growth Index  has eked out a gain of 0.5% through Wednesday,  while the Russell 1000 Value Index  dropped about 3.7% over the same period, FactSet data show.</p><p>Upcoming company earnings reports for the second quarter should give investors a &#34;clearer picture&#34; of what companies expect in terms of demand for their goods and services in the second half of 2022, as well as which direction stocks will be headed, according to Graff.</p><p>&#34;Some amount of earnings slowdown is priced in,&#34; he said of the equities market. &#34;In our view, if earnings are mildly lower in the second half but companies see them rebounding in &#39;23, that&#39;s probably a pretty good outcome for stocks.&#34;</p><p>In prior recessions, the average earnings drop for the S&amp;P 500 was 13%, with the global financial crisis, or GFC, skewing the results, according to Tony DeSpirito, BlackRock&#39;s chief investment officer for U.S. fundamental equities. A chart in his third-quarter outlook report illustrates this finding.</p><p>&#34;We are not calling for a recession, but we are cognizant that the risks of a recession are rising,&#34; DeSpirito said in the note. &#34;The Fed is tightening monetary policy, bringing an end to &#39;easy money&#39; policies,&#34; he said, while 30-year mortgage rates have about doubled since last year to nearly 6% today, inflation is starting to &#34;erode household savings&#34; and &#34;inventories of goods are elevated as both pandemic-induced supply shortages and voracious demand ease.&#34;</p><p>All three major U.S. stock benchmarks ended Wednesday higher after the release of minutes of the Fed&#39;s last policy meeting. The S&amp;P 500  gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite  rose 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average  edged up 0.2%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249546463","content_text":"If tech can sustain outperformance that will mean the market thinks the Fed has passed 'peak hawkishness,' according to Sevens ReportGrowth stocks have outperformed value equities recently as investors begin to question if the Federal Reserve has passed peak hawkishness already with its plans to raise rates to combat high inflation.Recent bets on fed-funds futures have pointed toward a potential pivot back to rate cuts at some point next year, while 10-year yields on U.S. government debt have fallen below 3%. Corporate bond spreads have widened as recession worries bubble up. But thedecline in Treasury yields appears to be giving a lift to technology and other growth stocks over value-oriented equities.\"While it's too early to declare the value outperformance 'over,' we do think the outperformance of tech recently is notable, because if it continues that will be a strong signal that the market is now looking past future rates hikes towards eventual rate cuts in 2023,\" said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note Wednesday. \"If tech can mount sustained outperformance that will tell us the market thinks the Fed has passed 'peak hawkishness.'\"Long-term Treasury yields have been falling recently because investors are worried that the U.S. economy is slowing and \"a recession is a distinct possibility,\" said Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, by phone.The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped as high as about 3.482% in June, before falling Tuesday to 2.808%--the lowest since May 27 based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That compares with a yield of about 1.5% at the end of 2021, when investors were anticipating that the Fed was gearing up to hike its benchmark rate to curb hot inflation.The Fed raised its benchmark rate in March for the first time since 2018, lifting it a quarter percentage point from near zero while laying out plans for further increases as inflation was running at the hottest pace in 40 years. Since then, the central bank has become more hawkish, announcing larger rate hikes as the cost of living has remained stubbornly high.That has made investors anxious that the Fed risks causing a recession by potentially being too aggressive to bring runaway inflation under control.Read:Fed's Waller backs another jumbo 75 bp interest-rate hike in JulyBut now slowing growth has some investors questioning how long the Fed will continue on an aggressive path of monetary tightening, even though it began hiking rates just this year.Recession worriesThe yield curve spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury rates briefly inverted on July 5 for the first time since mid-June, another sign that the U.S. may be facing a recession, although this time against a backdrop of declining rates, according to Graff. The yield curve was inverted on Wednesday afternoon, with two-year yields  slightly higher than 10-year rates , FactSet data show.In Graff's view, the corporate bond market also has been flashing recession concerns.\"Investment-grade corporate spreads are about as wide as they've been any time\" outside of a  recession in the last 25 years, said Graff. That doesn't mean there's \"100% odds\" of an economic contraction, he said, \"but it's definitely clearly showing credit markets think there's a risk.\"Spreads over Treasurys for high-yield debt, or junk bonds, have similarly increased, according to Graff.\"U.S. corporate bond spreads continue to move higher even though 10-year Treasury yields peaked 3 weeks ago,\" said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note emailed July 6. \"Spreads tend to rise when markets are increasingly uncertain about future corporate cash flows, and that has been the case most of this year.\"Investors worry about cash flows drying up in an economic slowdown as that may hinder companies from reinvesting in their businesses, or make it more difficult for cash-strapped borrowers to meet their financial obligations.The U.S. stock market has sunk this year after a repricing of valuations that looked stretched as rates rose. Growth stocks, including shares of technology-related companies, have taken a steep drop in 2022.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 29.5% during the first half of this year, while the S&P 500 dropped 20.6%.Growth stocks are particularly sensitive to rising rates as their anticipated cash flow streams are far out into the future. But with rates recently falling amid recession concerns, they've recently been gaining ground after being trounced by value-style bets over a stretch that began late last year.Since June 10, the Russell 1000 Growth Index  has eked out a gain of 0.5% through Wednesday,  while the Russell 1000 Value Index  dropped about 3.7% over the same period, FactSet data show.Upcoming company earnings reports for the second quarter should give investors a \"clearer picture\" of what companies expect in terms of demand for their goods and services in the second half of 2022, as well as which direction stocks will be headed, according to Graff.\"Some amount of earnings slowdown is priced in,\" he said of the equities market. \"In our view, if earnings are mildly lower in the second half but companies see them rebounding in '23, that's probably a pretty good outcome for stocks.\"In prior recessions, the average earnings drop for the S&P 500 was 13%, with the global financial crisis, or GFC, skewing the results, according to Tony DeSpirito, BlackRock's chief investment officer for U.S. fundamental equities. A chart in his third-quarter outlook report illustrates this finding.\"We are not calling for a recession, but we are cognizant that the risks of a recession are rising,\" DeSpirito said in the note. \"The Fed is tightening monetary policy, bringing an end to 'easy money' policies,\" he said, while 30-year mortgage rates have about doubled since last year to nearly 6% today, inflation is starting to \"erode household savings\" and \"inventories of goods are elevated as both pandemic-induced supply shortages and voracious demand ease.\"All three major U.S. stock benchmarks ended Wednesday higher after the release of minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting. The S&P 500  gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite  rose 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average  edged up 0.2%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968116193,"gmtCreate":1669160545512,"gmtModify":1676538159278,"author":{"id":"4112665382539382","authorId":"4112665382539382","name":"silverkapow","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718cdb13d69574d40a4358851db4fa1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112665382539382","idStr":"4112665382539382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968116193","repostId":"1172587360","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172587360","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669159512,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172587360?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-23 07:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Making the Biggest Moves After Hours: HP, Manchester United, Nordstrom, Autodesk and More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172587360","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nordstrom crashed over 8% in extended trading; It trimmed its annual profit forecast on Tuesday, as ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nordstrom crashed over 8% in extended trading; It trimmed its annual profit forecast on Tuesday, as the retailer wrestles with supply chain pressures, higher operating costs and aggressive discounting to clear out-of-fashion inventory.</p><p>Autodesk tumbled over 9% in extended trading; It said it expected billings of $5.57 billion to $5.67 billion for its full fiscal year, which ends Jan. 31. That&#39;s a bit lower than the forecast executives gave in August for between $5.7 billion and $5.8 billion.</p><p>Manchester United gained over 8% in extended trading; Its board is launching a process to explore strategic alternatives, including new investment into the sports club and a potential sale.</p><p>HP Inc. gained nearly 2% in extended trading; It will eliminate as many as 6,000 jobs over the next three years amid declining demand for personal computers that has cut into profits. Earnings, excluding some items, will be $3.20 to $3.60 a share in the fiscal year ending in October 2023.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Making the Biggest Moves After Hours: HP, Manchester United, Nordstrom, Autodesk and More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Making the Biggest Moves After Hours: HP, Manchester United, Nordstrom, Autodesk and More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-23 07:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nordstrom crashed over 8% in extended trading; It trimmed its annual profit forecast on Tuesday, as the retailer wrestles with supply chain pressures, higher operating costs and aggressive discounting to clear out-of-fashion inventory.</p><p>Autodesk tumbled over 9% in extended trading; It said it expected billings of $5.57 billion to $5.67 billion for its full fiscal year, which ends Jan. 31. That&#39;s a bit lower than the forecast executives gave in August for between $5.7 billion and $5.8 billion.</p><p>Manchester United gained over 8% in extended trading; Its board is launching a process to explore strategic alternatives, including new investment into the sports club and a potential sale.</p><p>HP Inc. gained nearly 2% in extended trading; It will eliminate as many as 6,000 jobs over the next three years amid declining demand for personal computers that has cut into profits. Earnings, excluding some items, will be $3.20 to $3.60 a share in the fiscal year ending in October 2023.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HPQ":"惠普","JWN":"诺德斯特龙","MANU":"曼联","ADSK":"欧特克"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172587360","content_text":"Nordstrom crashed over 8% in extended trading; It trimmed its annual profit forecast on Tuesday, as the retailer wrestles with supply chain pressures, higher operating costs and aggressive discounting to clear out-of-fashion inventory.Autodesk tumbled over 9% in extended trading; It said it expected billings of $5.57 billion to $5.67 billion for its full fiscal year, which ends Jan. 31. That's a bit lower than the forecast executives gave in August for between $5.7 billion and $5.8 billion.Manchester United gained over 8% in extended trading; Its board is launching a process to explore strategic alternatives, including new investment into the sports club and a potential sale.HP Inc. gained nearly 2% in extended trading; It will eliminate as many as 6,000 jobs over the next three years amid declining demand for personal computers that has cut into profits. Earnings, excluding some items, will be $3.20 to $3.60 a share in the fiscal year ending in October 2023.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JWN":0.9,"MANU":0.9,"ADSK":0.9,"HPQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916176495,"gmtCreate":1664546601917,"gmtModify":1676537475248,"author":{"id":"4112665382539382","authorId":"4112665382539382","name":"silverkapow","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718cdb13d69574d40a4358851db4fa1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112665382539382","idStr":"4112665382539382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wala","listText":"Wala","text":"Wala","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916176495","repostId":"2270894817","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270894817","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664549960,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270894817?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 22:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Want to Get Richer? 2 Top Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270894817","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's not too late to invest in these well-established market beaters.","content":"<div>\n<p>Few growth stocks have escaped the recent market downturn. And with the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates, growth-oriented companies may face a difficult road ahead. Higher rates make it ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/28/want-to-get-richer-2-top-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hol/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Want to Get Richer? 2 Top Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWant to Get Richer? 2 Top Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-30 22:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/28/want-to-get-richer-2-top-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hol/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Few growth stocks have escaped the recent market downturn. And with the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates, growth-oriented companies may face a difficult road ahead. Higher rates make it ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/28/want-to-get-richer-2-top-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hol/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/28/want-to-get-richer-2-top-stocks-to-buy-now-and-hol/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270894817","content_text":"Few growth stocks have escaped the recent market downturn. And with the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates, growth-oriented companies may face a difficult road ahead. Higher rates make it costlier to borrow money, contributing to lower potential future earnings for corporations and affecting the performance of equities, especially those considered less safe.Thankfully, that's not a death sentence for all growth stocks. Those that have been leaders in their respective fields for a while, possess a strong moat, and still have solid opportunities to exploit will be just fine. Here are two companies that fit this description: Microsoft and Visa. These stocks are worth holding forever.MSFT data by YCharts1. MicrosoftMicrosoft squarely features on the list of companies whose services people use every day. It remains the leader in the market for computer operating systems (OS) by a wide margin, with a roughly 76% share of the desktop OS space as of June. Of course, Microsoft's business is much larger than that. The company is also present in gaming, and it offers various cloud-based services.While it doesn't enjoy the kind of dominance in these two other segments that it does in computer OS, it is one of the leaders within these markets. Still, Microsoft's robust business hasn't allowed it to escape the recent sell-off.On the one hand, revenue growth slowed compared to last year. In its latest quarter, the fourth of its fiscal year 2022, ending on June 30, the company's revenue increased by 12% year over year to $51.9 billion. But Microsoft's current top-line growth rates aren't that abnormal by the standards it has set over the past decade.MSFT Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YChartsThe company's quarterly earnings per share (EPS) increased by 3% year over year to $2.23. Further, the tech giant remains a cash-generating machine -- with a current free cash flow of $65.2 billion. Overall, Microsoft's financial results haven't been that bad, despite what its stock market performance this year would suggest.The company is poised to bounce back thanks to its strong competitive edge and, of course, its booming cloud business. Microsoft is one of the most recognizable and valuable brands on the planet. Customers gravitate toward companies they know and trust, and Microsoft fits the bill.That grants the company a solid advantage as it will allow it to continue attracting customers thanks to its brand name. That's before we mention Microsoft's high switching costs. Businesses depend on the company's various productivity tools and cloud-based services that enable them to run their day-to-day operations as smoothly as possible, making Microsoft's services an essential part of their success.The company's cloud unit, Microsoft Azure, is the second largest around. In its latest quarter, Azure's revenue grew by a much more impressive 40% year over year. The cloud industry is on a long and rapid growth path. With the cash it generates, Microsoft can continue investing in this business unit in which it will almost certainly remain a leader.That, combined with its other units and moat, makes Microsoft a solid tech stock to buy and forget.2. VisaVisa makes money everytime anyone uses a card that bears its logo, which is many times a day. The company helps facilitate credit card transactions, a business model that has worked wonders. Visa is so successful that the number of meaningful direct competitors it has can be counted on one hand.Since Visa's business largely depends on people spending money, the company is sensitive to macroeconomic (and other) headwinds that may cause a decrease in consumer activity. Perhaps that's why Visa stock is down this year, although the company has outperformed the broader market.Of note, Visa is performing well despite the economy it faces. During the third quarter of its fiscal year 2022, ending June 30, the company's revenue jumped by 19% year over year to $7.3 billion. EPS jumped by 36% year over year to $1.60. Visa currently has $16.1 billion in free cash flow.While it sometimes seems as though cash and checks have disappeared and credit and debit cards have entirely taken over, that isn't quite the case yet. According to management, Visa is targeting an $18 trillion opportunity to replace cash and check transactions, which, assuming global cash consumption expands at a compound annual growth rate of 1% annually, wouldn't happen for decades.As far as its competitive advantage is concerned, Visa benefits from the network effect -- the value of its service grows as more people use it. The more businesses are plugged into its network, the more it is attractive to consumers, and vice-versa. Visa could be subject to legal problems, as some lawmakers have proposed legislation that could disrupt the duopoly it shares with Mastercard.That is something investors should keep in mind, but even with this caveat, Visa looks like a solid long-term winner.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994841521,"gmtCreate":1661609511367,"gmtModify":1676536549202,"author":{"id":"4112665382539382","authorId":"4112665382539382","name":"silverkapow","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718cdb13d69574d40a4358851db4fa1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112665382539382","idStr":"4112665382539382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio VS Tesla","listText":"Nio VS Tesla","text":"Nio VS Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994841521","repostId":"1145230290","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145230290","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661577025,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145230290?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-27 13:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Concludes Internal Review of Seller Report; Street Says Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145230290","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Shares of the company are up ~8% over the past five days, and analysts are seeing a further 62.4% upside based on a Strong Buy consensus rating and an averageNIO stock price targetof $33.04. Deutsche Bank’sEdison Yuis even more optimistic about NIO with a Buy rating and a price target of $45, which points to a massive 120.5% potential upside. The analyst feels the market is yet to fully take cognizance of NIO’s expanding global footprint.Closing Thoughts – NIO Stock is Starting to Emerging from ","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsNIO has concluded the internal review of the allegations made by short-seller Grizzly Research. Analysts, in the meantime, are screaming Buy ahead of its Q2 numbers on September 7....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/nio-nysenio-concludes-internal-review-of-seller-report-street-says-buy\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Concludes Internal Review of Seller Report; Street Says Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Concludes Internal Review of Seller Report; Street Says Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-27 13:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/nio-nysenio-concludes-internal-review-of-seller-report-street-says-buy><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsNIO has concluded the internal review of the allegations made by short-seller Grizzly Research. Analysts, in the meantime, are screaming Buy ahead of its Q2 numbers on September 7....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/nio-nysenio-concludes-internal-review-of-seller-report-street-says-buy\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/nio-nysenio-concludes-internal-review-of-seller-report-street-says-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145230290","content_text":"Story HighlightsNIO has concluded the internal review of the allegations made by short-seller Grizzly Research. Analysts, in the meantime, are screaming Buy ahead of its Q2 numbers on September 7.Smart EV maker NIO Inc.  has provided an update on its independent internal review of the allegations made by short-seller Grizzly Research in June about the company exaggerating its numbers. In response, NIO had set up an independent committee of its Board of directors to review the allegations. The committee had also roped in an international law firm and a forensic accounting firm to assist in the process.The review is now “substantially” complete, and the committee has “concluded that these allegations were not substantiated.”When Do NIO Earnings Come Out?In another development, NIO is set to report its second-quarter numbers before the market opens on September 7. The Street expects NIO to report a net loss per share of $0.17 for the period.In the last eight quarters, NIO has failed to surpass consensus estimates only three times. In the comparable year-ago period, it reported a net loss per share of $0.06 versus the analysts’ expectations of a net loss per share of $0.09.Furthermore, the company is gearing up to hit the Chinese market with its ES7 SUV and the European market with its ET7 electric sedan. The vehicle deliveries in Europe could potentially boost NIO’s numbers in the fourth quarter.Is NIO Stock a Buy?Shares of the company are up ~8% over the past five days, and analysts are seeing a further 62.4% upside based on a Strong Buy consensus rating and an averageNIO stock price targetof $33.04. Deutsche Bank’sEdison Yuis even more optimistic about NIO with a Buy rating and a price target of $45, which points to a massive 120.5% potential upside. The analyst feels the market is yet to fully take cognizance of NIO’s expanding global footprint.Closing Thoughts – NIO Stock is Starting to Emerging from ChallengesNIO is beginning to emerge from challenges such as the severe COVID-19 lockdown and supply-chain bottlenecks. The findings of the internal review should help shore up investor confidence after the short seller report. All eyes will now be on the quarterly numbers on September 7.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070537114,"gmtCreate":1657073017838,"gmtModify":1676535944708,"author":{"id":"4112665382539382","authorId":"4112665382539382","name":"silverkapow","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/718cdb13d69574d40a4358851db4fa1c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4112665382539382","idStr":"4112665382539382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No doubt.","listText":"No doubt.","text":"No doubt.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070537114","repostId":"2249373538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249373538","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1657063808,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249373538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-06 07:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The U.S. Won't Officially Be in Recession If GDP Shrinks Again -- and Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249373538","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Parts of the U.S. economy still seem quite healthySince World War Two the U.S. economy has never shr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Parts of the U.S. economy still seem quite healthy</p><p>Since World War <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> the U.S. economy has never shrunk for two quarters in a row without a recession being declared, but an exception to the rule could happen soon.</p><p>Gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, is on track to contract in the recently ended second quarter. GDP also declined at a 1.6% annual rate in the first three months of 2022.</p><p>Typically two straight quarters of economic contraction is considered a recession, at least unofficially, but an &#34;official&#34; declaration of recession is not so cut and dry.</p><p>For one thing, GDP is a complicated report whose headline number sometimes gives off an inaccurate portrait of the economy.</p><p>Take the first quarter. GDP contracted largely because of a record U.S. international trade deficit.</p><p>Americans bought piles of imports while businesses that were suffering from chronic shortages of supplies put in bigger orders for foreign goods to make sure they had enough on hand later in the year, pushing up inventories.</p><p>The surge in demand for imports was not a sign of a slowing economy. Consumer spending and business investment, the two main pillars of the economy, both rose. GDP would have been positive had the international trade deficit not exploded early in the year.</p><p>At the same time, the U.S. economy has been steadily creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs each month and the unemployment rate has held steady at 3.6% -- just a hair above a 54-year low.</p><p>These are some of the details that won&#39;t escape the attention of the group of eight economists in the U.S. entrusted with determining when recessions begin and end.</p><p>These economists, mostly unknown to the public but prominent in their field, work for an organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research. The nonprofit organization was founded in 1920 and is funded by government and private contributions.</p><p>The NBER economists take in a wide range of factors to determine if a recession occurred, but they pay special focus to hiring, unemployment, manufacturing, and income and spending adjusted for inflation.</p><p>None of those indicators clearly show the U.S. slipping into recession -- and some such as strong job growth argue against it.</p><p>The NBER defines a recession on its FAQ page as a &#34;a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.&#34;</p><p>But the NBER also indicates a downturn has to be deep, broad and long lasting before it declares a recession.</p><p>A lot could change, of course, before the government on July 28 officially reports second quarter GDP.  Several key economic reports for the period covering April to June  have yet to be released, especially the critical U.S. employment  for June.</p><p>Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal predict the U.S. gained a healthy 250,000 new jobs to keep the unemployment rate at 3.6%.</p><p>The finally flurry of data could show economic growth was somewhat stronger than it seemed -- and get the NBER off the hook.</p><p>For now. More and more economists predict a recession or something close to that is likely by next year.</p><p>&#34;Whether we get a classical recession is still an open question, even though the hit to growth will feel like a recession,&#34; said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at  Mizuho Securities.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The U.S. Won't Officially Be in Recession If GDP Shrinks Again -- and Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe U.S. Won't Officially Be in Recession If GDP Shrinks Again -- and Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-06 07:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Parts of the U.S. economy still seem quite healthy</p><p>Since World War <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> the U.S. economy has never shrunk for two quarters in a row without a recession being declared, but an exception to the rule could happen soon.</p><p>Gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, is on track to contract in the recently ended second quarter. GDP also declined at a 1.6% annual rate in the first three months of 2022.</p><p>Typically two straight quarters of economic contraction is considered a recession, at least unofficially, but an &#34;official&#34; declaration of recession is not so cut and dry.</p><p>For one thing, GDP is a complicated report whose headline number sometimes gives off an inaccurate portrait of the economy.</p><p>Take the first quarter. GDP contracted largely because of a record U.S. international trade deficit.</p><p>Americans bought piles of imports while businesses that were suffering from chronic shortages of supplies put in bigger orders for foreign goods to make sure they had enough on hand later in the year, pushing up inventories.</p><p>The surge in demand for imports was not a sign of a slowing economy. Consumer spending and business investment, the two main pillars of the economy, both rose. GDP would have been positive had the international trade deficit not exploded early in the year.</p><p>At the same time, the U.S. economy has been steadily creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs each month and the unemployment rate has held steady at 3.6% -- just a hair above a 54-year low.</p><p>These are some of the details that won&#39;t escape the attention of the group of eight economists in the U.S. entrusted with determining when recessions begin and end.</p><p>These economists, mostly unknown to the public but prominent in their field, work for an organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research. The nonprofit organization was founded in 1920 and is funded by government and private contributions.</p><p>The NBER economists take in a wide range of factors to determine if a recession occurred, but they pay special focus to hiring, unemployment, manufacturing, and income and spending adjusted for inflation.</p><p>None of those indicators clearly show the U.S. slipping into recession -- and some such as strong job growth argue against it.</p><p>The NBER defines a recession on its FAQ page as a &#34;a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.&#34;</p><p>But the NBER also indicates a downturn has to be deep, broad and long lasting before it declares a recession.</p><p>A lot could change, of course, before the government on July 28 officially reports second quarter GDP.  Several key economic reports for the period covering April to June  have yet to be released, especially the critical U.S. employment  for June.</p><p>Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal predict the U.S. gained a healthy 250,000 new jobs to keep the unemployment rate at 3.6%.</p><p>The finally flurry of data could show economic growth was somewhat stronger than it seemed -- and get the NBER off the hook.</p><p>For now. More and more economists predict a recession or something close to that is likely by next year.</p><p>&#34;Whether we get a classical recession is still an open question, even though the hit to growth will feel like a recession,&#34; said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at  Mizuho Securities.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249373538","content_text":"Parts of the U.S. economy still seem quite healthySince World War Two the U.S. economy has never shrunk for two quarters in a row without a recession being declared, but an exception to the rule could happen soon.Gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, is on track to contract in the recently ended second quarter. GDP also declined at a 1.6% annual rate in the first three months of 2022.Typically two straight quarters of economic contraction is considered a recession, at least unofficially, but an \"official\" declaration of recession is not so cut and dry.For one thing, GDP is a complicated report whose headline number sometimes gives off an inaccurate portrait of the economy.Take the first quarter. GDP contracted largely because of a record U.S. international trade deficit.Americans bought piles of imports while businesses that were suffering from chronic shortages of supplies put in bigger orders for foreign goods to make sure they had enough on hand later in the year, pushing up inventories.The surge in demand for imports was not a sign of a slowing economy. Consumer spending and business investment, the two main pillars of the economy, both rose. GDP would have been positive had the international trade deficit not exploded early in the year.At the same time, the U.S. economy has been steadily creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs each month and the unemployment rate has held steady at 3.6% -- just a hair above a 54-year low.These are some of the details that won't escape the attention of the group of eight economists in the U.S. entrusted with determining when recessions begin and end.These economists, mostly unknown to the public but prominent in their field, work for an organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research. The nonprofit organization was founded in 1920 and is funded by government and private contributions.The NBER economists take in a wide range of factors to determine if a recession occurred, but they pay special focus to hiring, unemployment, manufacturing, and income and spending adjusted for inflation.None of those indicators clearly show the U.S. slipping into recession -- and some such as strong job growth argue against it.The NBER defines a recession on its FAQ page as a \"a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.\"But the NBER also indicates a downturn has to be deep, broad and long lasting before it declares a recession.A lot could change, of course, before the government on July 28 officially reports second quarter GDP.  Several key economic reports for the period covering April to June  have yet to be released, especially the critical U.S. employment  for June.Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal predict the U.S. gained a healthy 250,000 new jobs to keep the unemployment rate at 3.6%.The finally flurry of data could show economic growth was somewhat stronger than it seemed -- and get the NBER off the hook.For now. More and more economists predict a recession or something close to that is likely by next year.\"Whether we get a classical recession is still an open question, even though the hit to growth will feel like a recession,\" said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at  Mizuho Securities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}