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Market's concern on NVDA may not be from MSFT

Yesterday the arithmetic chain plunged because of reports of $Microsoft(MSFT)$ data center lease cancellations and extensions, but instead $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ was down more (-5.74%).NVDA's current but a bit may not be the same, because the arithmetic efficiency improvement and the concern of lower demand for GPUs, in fact, in January DeepSeek wave has been embodied, it makes no sense that the same subject matter once again hype wave.But NVDA's own Blackwell series may become a more worrying point for the market:GB200 supply chain challenges, which have been reported on quite a bit before.Included:Deployment complexity: the deployment of GB200 required 5-7 days of installation time, with frequent instability an
Market's concern on NVDA may not be from MSFT

Labubu Sold $400mn in 2024! POP MART is another NVDA?

After reading the earnings report of $POP MART(09992)$ today, I was simply shocked by this "money printing machine"!Labubu's The Monsters series, 2024 annual revenue of more than 3 billion, and the first half of only 600 million, second only to Molly, but the second half of the wildly overtaken.Although there is absolutely no business, industry, technology attributes to compare the two, but the two share the underlying code of "super growth stocks": monopoly market segments, globalization and expansion, product iteration crushes the questioning, but there have been questions on the road to growth.Specifically two aspects:High valuation - high faith, the scarcity of the leading "pricing power" premiumNVDA: with AI arithmetic monopoly, the dynamic
Labubu Sold $400mn in 2024! POP MART is another NVDA?
The Fed's March FOMC focus:First, the economic forecast and dot plot.The market wants to know if officials are revising growth, inflation and unemployment up or down, and what changes in the number of rate cuts this year, which can judge the committee's stance preference.Currently, the market is pricing in the expectation of two rate cuts by the end of 2025, and it would be best for the market if it remained unchanged.The problem, however, is that the market's interpretation could be "negative" - an increase in the number of cuts could be perceived as heightening concerns about the economy; a decrease in the number of cuts could be seen as "hawkish", with fears of making theThe future of the economy worse, how to look at it is not favorable.The second is Powell's press conference.Investors

AAPL's TWO big unwind

Last week's unusual volume selloff in $Apple(AAPL)$ is also now down to last July's levels.While there is some degree of skepticism about the reduction (liquidation) of positions by LO investors such as Warren Buffett $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ this can only be verified in next quarter's 13F.Fundamentally several events affecting the medium term are enough to change investor expectations.Apple Intellegence delayMany of Siri's new features, such as analyzing screen content and controlling apps with precision, were shown off at WWDC, listing them as selling points for the iPhone 16 and putting them into a marketing push, but the features shown off were only "half-finished prototypes."However, the original
AAPL's TWO big unwind

Is Intel's New CEO making a difference?

$Intel(INTC)$ announced Lip-Bu Tan to take over as the new CEO, the entire Chinese circle can not restrain the excitement, after all, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ are now Chinese CEOs. Lip-Bu Tans background, qualifications, but also fully worthy of the current position, because he was previously a director of Intel, but because of the concept of different in August 24 resigned from the post.Why the market for think Lip-Bu Tan really can change Intel?The main reason for the board's resignation was dissatisfaction with the organization's structure and "conservative and outdated" corporate c
Is Intel's New CEO making a difference?

Was It Buffett Selling AAPL Again?

When the broader market first changed, AAPL was a bit firmer than the expenses, but after the broader $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ experienced a sharp drop of -4%, AAPL started to plummet instead.Every time $Apple(AAPL)$ goes down this way, I get the feeling that it's Long Only money like Warren Buffett's that's shipping out the moneyOne piece of evidence:All top tech weights were on Monday's plunge, but the NDX average volume was similar to or slighly more than the average volume over the past 5 days;AAPL was already on volume when it plummeted on Monday and continued to plummet on volume on Tuesday. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $ProShares UltraP
Was It Buffett Selling AAPL Again?

Cathie Wood On The Way...

Cathie Wood On The Way...

The War Between Tesla & Shorts

Core EventsFor the third day in a row, Musk blasted the "consortium's manipulation of the anti-Tesla movement," naming ActBlue, the fundraising platform behind Soros, LinkedIn founder Hoffman and others, and accusing it of funding recent violent protests such as arson at Tesla stores around the world and vandalism of charging piles through five organizations. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Hoffman, of course, was not to be outdone: "Instead of framing conspiracy theories, let's reflect on ourselves."Ex-Soros was a significant investor in Tesla, but liquidated his position at the end of 2022 after a fall in the share price caused him to lose a lot of money;Soros is an important Jewish supporter, very ←, while Musk is currently very →Musk slammed Soros as "Ma
The War Between Tesla & Shorts

Remember This Man, While You Believe Canada Will Survive!

Trudeaux just stepped down, Canada has had a new Prime Minister, Mark Carney!His background is simply coolHe has three passports, Canadian, British and Irish;After graduating from Harvard, traveled to Oxford University, where he received his doctorate in 1995;Worked at Goldman Sachs, helping Goldman Sachs respond to the Russian national debt crisis in 1998;Was Governor of the Bank of Canada (carried the 08 financial crisis, the world's only G7 country with no bank failures);Been the governor of the Bank of England (just in time to meet the chaos of Brexit, did not force QE, but the effect is good, was honored by the Queen);Currently stated after a successful election campaign that he gave up his British and Irish passports to ensure absolute loyalty to Canada.Campaign propositions include:
Remember This Man, While You Believe Canada Will Survive!

Market in "Boring Mode", the best choice is...

The three charts below show fund flows in the U.S. equity markets:Mutual funds and ETFs raised in January 2025 are the weakest performers since August 2024Investor demand for equity funds has weakened significantly;Instead, actively managed ETFs have seen increased inflows and the trend is strengthening (monthly inflows into active ETFs are at an all-time high, occurring six times in 2024)Ultra-short-term bonds (cash substitutes) are performing very strongly.All of these indicators point to one thing: Investors feel that it is not cost-effective to hold long US stocks (beta trading) at the moment and are trying to find other sources of alpha.As a result, holding cash (money funds) have all become a source of market-leading alpha.The Hong Kong equity side has also just entered an awkward pe
Market in "Boring Mode", the best choice is...

Investors are selling off Semis before AVGO earnings?

Several of today's semiconductor earnings reports show that the market has become more demanding of semiconductor companies, and some potential problems can be seen in the $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ earnings report:Excellent performance in the current quarter, and guidance exceeded expectationsToo single source of incremental volume: while AI drives certainty, weakness across the board except for data centers, e.g., enterprise networking revenue of $171m (-35% yoy), carrier infrastructure of $106m (-38% yoy), consumer electronics of $89m (-38% yoy)Rising inventory days: current inventory levels can support 2-3Q demand, if AI order growth slows it will trigger inventory impairment risk;The market previously expected too high, has overdrawn the positiv
Investors are selling off Semis before AVGO earnings?

Discussion on TSM's CoWos reduction

The trigger for the chip stock selloff was the previous $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ CoWoS adjustment, which the market has been led to believe was an NVDA order cut.There are actually two premises to understand:Big tech companies (Mag 6) in the B card orders to Nvidia, because of the fear of capacity problems, often under the double (double orders), as a way to get more orders in the earliest stage, to be restored to the production capacity, may be canceled duplicate orders (expected this year Q3);NVIDIA tends to place double (or even multiple) orders when giving orders to TSMC, also in order to obtain more resources, which is also a game of upstream and downstream;First of all, TSMC will not expand production to the full extent of cu
Discussion on TSM's CoWos reduction

Zelensky is TSLA's next risk

As $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shareholders, last year's post-election day excitement, but also pay more attention to the "Musk risk", that is, with Trump deeply tied to the fundamentals of the backlash.A few months down the line, this change is already being reflected in results, most notably in the plummeting sales in Europe.According to incomplete regional delivery data, often "white left" prevalent in the region of sales decline is more obvious, which is obviously also the European "white left" in their unique way, targeting Tesla, showing "populism" against Tesla.The conclusion is that it is affecting Tesla's results.Since delivery data tends to lag, this part of the impact is likely to continue.But the decline in European deliveries is already "Pri
Zelensky is TSLA's next risk

Two Notable Charts (in downward trend)

Concentration risk in US tech stocks is starting to explode, with the gap to the ROW (ex-US), widening from February.At certain key points, perhaps some passive position adjustment will be ushered in. cta algorithmic trading has been a key factor in increasing market trends, so much so when it goes up, then it will run into corresponding problems when it goes down.If the quants go into fuller liquidation mode, CTA money is going to passively sell off $27 billion-$193 billion in equities as key points fall through. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
Two Notable Charts (in downward trend)

PLTR in Q4 13F, How investors change this?

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 24Q4 Institutional Investors’ position change.
PLTR in Q4 13F, How investors change this?

Singapore Nvidia Chips, and something more...

Singapore officials say the country actually received less than 1 percent of NVIDIA's physical chip deliveries, even though 22 percent of NVIDIA's sales were credited to Singapore in the third quarter of 2024. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ $Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF(NVDS)$
Singapore Nvidia Chips, and something more...

Nvidia "BUY" Weride? Let's see some details!

$NVIDIA (NVDA)$ Chinese self-driving startup WeRide was featured in a recently filed 13F, owning roughly 1.7 million shares of WeRide, and for a time bringing High on the latter as well.But there are some details worth noting:This part of the investment has a 180-day lock-up period, and NVIDIA can't sell these shares before the end of the lock-up period;Not newly purchased shares, but previously held shares, and according to the 13F, this portion of the investment was not an investment decision made by NVIDIA itself, but by a trio of organizations;NVIDIA was an early investor in WeRide's Pre-A round of financing, having made the investment back in 2017 as part of a $52 million financing led through Qiming Venture Partners Qiming Venture Partners V, L
Nvidia "BUY" Weride? Let's see some details!

Everybody buy the China dip, will it be the dip?

$Goldman Sachs (GS)$ has been publishing its views a bit more intensively lately, and it has also generated discussionBut to summarize, several big banks $ Bank of America (BAC)$ $ JPMorgan Chase (JPM)$ $ Morgan Stanley (MS)$ and others have similar views recently:Bullish on this wave of China asset revaluation brought about by Deepseek, with AI-related assets shifting from negative to positive valuationsMay encounter retracement resistance in the short term, but not a bad buying opportunity;Hong Kong and A are not progressing in the same way, A-share valuation is relatively a bit higher, and Hong Kong stocks and Chinese companies are mor
Everybody buy the China dip, will it be the dip?

Strategic Analysis of US-Taiwan Semiconductor Game

Ming-Chi Kuo published his analysis of the recent Trump administration's policy on the chip manufacturing industry and the possible game playIn the context of the U.S.-China technological tug-of-war, the U.S. government's negotiation game with TSMC reflects the strategic picture of the global semiconductor industry chain restructuring.First, the strategic demands of the U.S. governmentMaintenance of technological hegemony: by attracting TSMC to set up factories in the U.S., the U.S. government intends to rebuild the production capacity of the local advanced process, make up for the gap of the cutting-edge chip manufacturing below 5nm, and maintain the technological generation gap advantage over China.Industry chain reconstruction: In the context of the decoupling of China and the U.S., the
Strategic Analysis of US-Taiwan Semiconductor Game

Applovin is being proven successful in E-commerce Ads

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ Q4 revenue & profit are STRONG BEAT: ad revenue of $1 billion (e-commerce may reach 10%), EBITDA margin of 61.8% exceeded expectations.Axon 2.0 technology moat, currently in the ad loading efficiency & accuracy crushed competitors, in the game advertising market is the absolute leader, customer acquisition market share of more than 30% (+10pct year-on-year);The e-commerce track became the second curve, a major factor is Chinese cross-border sellers wildly buying volume.The largest e-commerce customer's budget in 2025 skyrocketed 6 times, and the platform's e-commerce budget accounted for nearly 10%, crushing TikTok and pushing Google;Controversy point 1: Previously Lauren Balik short APP, the main point of conten
Applovin is being proven successful in E-commerce Ads

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