怂人得志 personal page - To The Moon

怂人得志

怂人得志

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2022-06-22

👍

US STOCKS-Wall Street Gains Over 2% in Broad Rebound

2022-08-13

🤔

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-25

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This week's preview | The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! Apple, Microsoft and other tech stocks release earnings

2022-06-07

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-31

$西方石油(OXY)$👍💰🎉

2022-09-23

$TSLA 20221021 291.67 PUT$

2022-09-02

$SOXS 20220902 40.5 CALL$💰🎉

2022-08-22

$麦当劳(MCD)$💪

2022-08-13

$MCD 20220819 265.0 CALL$😎💪

2022-07-31

$高科技指数ETF-SPDR(XLK)$💪

2022-07-30

🤔

How to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic

2022-07-08

$贝壳(BEKE)$💪

2022-07-04

$贝壳(BEKE)$🤔

2022-07-03

$AMC院线(AMC)$👍

2022-06-25

👍

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-18

🤔

Last night and this morning | The Fed's most hawkish remarks were released! The global food crisis is worsening

2022-06-04

$AMC院线(AMC)$🤔

2022-06-02

$Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF(PXE)$🎉

2022-05-29

$西方石油(OXY)$👍💪

2022-05-28

💪

Occidental Petroleum and Chevron hit new highs, proving Buffett's buying logic?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d2ff9feaeff1e9f264d886b71f69b97e","width":"1080","height":"2120"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911489354","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911124709,"gmtCreate":1664159160501,"gmtModify":1676537399458,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPXU\">$三倍做空标普500ETF(SPXU)$</a>","listText":"<a 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brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1655852518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2245254247?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 07:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Gains Over 2% in Broad Rebound","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2245254247","media":"Reuters","summary":"Wall Street's major indexes jumped over 2% on Tuesday as investors scooped up shares of megacap grow","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street&#39;s major indexes jumped over 2% on Tuesday as investors scooped up shares of megacap growth and energy companies after the stock market swooned last week on worries over a global economic downturn.</p><p>All 11 major S&amp;P 500    sectors gained, as stocks rebounded broadly after the benchmark index last week logged its biggest weekly percentage decline since March 2020.</p><p>Investors are trying to assess how far stocks can fall as they weigh risks to the economy with the Federal Reserve taking aggressive measures to try to tamp down surging inflation. The S&amp;P 500 earlier this month fell over 20% from its January all-time high, confirming the common definition of a bear market.</p><p>&#34;Do I think we have hit bottom? No. I think we are going to see more volatility, I think the bottoming process will likely take some time,&#34; said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. &#34;But I do think it is a good sign to see investor interest.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 641.47 points, or 2.15%, to 30,530.25, and the S&amp;P 500 gained 89.95 points, or 2.45%, at 3,764.79. The Nasdaq Composite added 270.95 points, or 2.51%, at 11,069.30.</p><p>The energy sector, the top-gaining S&amp;P 500 sector this year, surged 5.1% after tumbling last week. Every sector gained at least 1%.</p><p>Megacap stocks Apple Inc, Tesla Inc and Microsoft Corp all rose solidly to give the biggest individual boosts to the S&amp;P 500. Apple rose 3.3%, Tesla jumped 9.4% and Microsoft added 2.5%.</p><p>The Fed last week approved its largest interest rate increase in more than a quarter of a century to stem a surge in inflation.</p><p>Investors are pivoting to Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s testimony to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday for clues on future interest rate hikes and his latest views on the economy.</p><p>Investors are &#34;trying to read the tea leaves to see how aggressive the Fed is going to get,&#34; said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. &#34;That&#39;s a hard question to answer right now because they are going to see what happens to the inflation story.&#34;</p><p>Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs now expects a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%.</p><p>In company news, Kellogg Co shares rose about 2% after the breakfast cereal maker said it was splitting into three companies.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVE\">Spirit Airlines</a> shares jumped 7.9% after JetBlue Airways said on Monday it sweetened its bid to convince the ultra-low cost carrier to accept its offer over rival Frontier Airlines&#39; proposal.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.66-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.22-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> new 52-week high and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 37 new highs and 122 new lows.</p><p>About 12.4 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, in line with the 12.4 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Gains Over 2% in Broad Rebound</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Gains Over 2% in Broad Rebound\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-22 07:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street&#39;s major indexes jumped over 2% on Tuesday as investors scooped up shares of megacap growth and energy companies after the stock market swooned last week on worries over a global economic downturn.</p><p>All 11 major S&amp;P 500    sectors gained, as stocks rebounded broadly after the benchmark index last week logged its biggest weekly percentage decline since March 2020.</p><p>Investors are trying to assess how far stocks can fall as they weigh risks to the economy with the Federal Reserve taking aggressive measures to try to tamp down surging inflation. The S&amp;P 500 earlier this month fell over 20% from its January all-time high, confirming the common definition of a bear market.</p><p>&#34;Do I think we have hit bottom? No. I think we are going to see more volatility, I think the bottoming process will likely take some time,&#34; said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. &#34;But I do think it is a good sign to see investor interest.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 641.47 points, or 2.15%, to 30,530.25, and the S&amp;P 500 gained 89.95 points, or 2.45%, at 3,764.79. The Nasdaq Composite added 270.95 points, or 2.51%, at 11,069.30.</p><p>The energy sector, the top-gaining S&amp;P 500 sector this year, surged 5.1% after tumbling last week. Every sector gained at least 1%.</p><p>Megacap stocks Apple Inc, Tesla Inc and Microsoft Corp all rose solidly to give the biggest individual boosts to the S&amp;P 500. Apple rose 3.3%, Tesla jumped 9.4% and Microsoft added 2.5%.</p><p>The Fed last week approved its largest interest rate increase in more than a quarter of a century to stem a surge in inflation.</p><p>Investors are pivoting to Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s testimony to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday for clues on future interest rate hikes and his latest views on the economy.</p><p>Investors are &#34;trying to read the tea leaves to see how aggressive the Fed is going to get,&#34; said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. &#34;That&#39;s a hard question to answer right now because they are going to see what happens to the inflation story.&#34;</p><p>Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs now expects a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%.</p><p>In company news, Kellogg Co shares rose about 2% after the breakfast cereal maker said it was splitting into three companies.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVE\">Spirit Airlines</a> shares jumped 7.9% after JetBlue Airways said on Monday it sweetened its bid to convince the ultra-low cost carrier to accept its offer over rival Frontier Airlines&#39; proposal.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.66-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.22-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> new 52-week high and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 37 new highs and 122 new lows.</p><p>About 12.4 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, in line with the 12.4 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2245254247","content_text":"Wall Street's major indexes jumped over 2% on Tuesday as investors scooped up shares of megacap growth and energy companies after the stock market swooned last week on worries over a global economic downturn.All 11 major S&P 500    sectors gained, as stocks rebounded broadly after the benchmark index last week logged its biggest weekly percentage decline since March 2020.Investors are trying to assess how far stocks can fall as they weigh risks to the economy with the Federal Reserve taking aggressive measures to try to tamp down surging inflation. The S&P 500 earlier this month fell over 20% from its January all-time high, confirming the common definition of a bear market.\"Do I think we have hit bottom? No. I think we are going to see more volatility, I think the bottoming process will likely take some time,\" said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. \"But I do think it is a good sign to see investor interest.\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 641.47 points, or 2.15%, to 30,530.25, and the S&P 500 gained 89.95 points, or 2.45%, at 3,764.79. The Nasdaq Composite added 270.95 points, or 2.51%, at 11,069.30.The energy sector, the top-gaining S&P 500 sector this year, surged 5.1% after tumbling last week. Every sector gained at least 1%.Megacap stocks Apple Inc, Tesla Inc and Microsoft Corp all rose solidly to give the biggest individual boosts to the S&P 500. Apple rose 3.3%, Tesla jumped 9.4% and Microsoft added 2.5%.The Fed last week approved its largest interest rate increase in more than a quarter of a century to stem a surge in inflation.Investors are pivoting to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday for clues on future interest rate hikes and his latest views on the economy.Investors are \"trying to read the tea leaves to see how aggressive the Fed is going to get,\" said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. \"That's a hard question to answer right now because they are going to see what happens to the inflation story.\"Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs now expects a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%.In company news, Kellogg Co shares rose about 2% after the breakfast cereal maker said it was splitting into three companies.Spirit Airlines shares jumped 7.9% after JetBlue Airways said on Monday it sweetened its bid to convince the ultra-low cost carrier to accept its offer over rival Frontier Airlines' proposal.Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 2.66-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.22-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 37 new highs and 122 new lows.About 12.4 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, in line with the 12.4 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990295553,"gmtCreate":1660354713674,"gmtModify":1676533456982,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990295553","repostId":"1160701126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9900684437,"gmtCreate":1658707362329,"gmtModify":1676536193996,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9900684437","repostId":"1173956998","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173956998","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1658704842,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173956998?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-25 07:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! Apple, Microsoft and other tech stocks release earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173956998","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（7.25—7.29）重磅财经事件经济数据方面：北京时间本周四（7月28日）凌晨2点，美联储将公布利率决议，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将在利率公布半小时后召开新闻发布会。此外，美国第二季度实际GDP年化","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (7.25-7.29)</b></p><p><b>Economic data:</b>At 2 a.m. Beijing time this Thursday (July 28), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and then Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference half an hour after the interest rate is announced. In addition, economic data such as the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 23, and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in June will also be released one after another.<b>For new shares:</b>There is no news of new stock listing in Hong Kong stocks. Jianzhi Education, a Chinese concept education stock in the US stock market, is in the process of IPO. It will be IPO from July 21 to July 28, and is expected to be listed on Nasdaq on July 29.<b>Financial report:</b>Google, Microsoft, META, Apple, Amazon and many other star technology stocks will release financial reports intensively. In addition, companies such as Coca-Cola, UBS, General Motors, McDonald's, New Oriental, Yum China, and TAL will also make performance disclosures one after another.<b>Furthermore,</b>You can pay attention to the opening of a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products on Tuesday, Huawei's new product launch conference on Wednesday, and China's official manufacturing PMI in July on Sunday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4baa8e91d5013d02344a13019d2b431e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday, July 25KEYWORDS: philips earnings report; Dallas Fed Business Activity Index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee784949d7e663bd8420bfac6901bf52\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday, in terms of economic data,</b>There is less heavy macro data,<b>Dallas Fed Business Activity Index</b>Will release<b>。</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Philips</a>The earnings report will be released before the U.S. stock market opens.</p><p><b>Tuesday, July 26KEYWORDS: Coca-Cola/McDonald's/WuXi AppTec earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09c6ab045e20df94651387d58d9e3021\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of economic data on Tuesday,</b>The United States will release<b>S&P/CS20 Metropolitan House Price Index Annual Rate, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index</b>And other macro data.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02359\">WuXi AppTec</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOS\">Coca-Cola</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>Will announce the latest earnings report.</p><p><b>In addition, domestic refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window.</b></p><p>At present, the change rate of comprehensive crude oil varieties is-5.52%. It is expected that the oil price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 321 yuan/ton, exceeding the red line of reduction. The equivalent liter is calculated as the expected oil price will be reduced by 0.24-0.29 yuan/liter. Domestic oil prices are in a state of decline. This oil price adjustment will It will be the fourth reduction in 2022 and the third consecutive reduction this year.<b>Wednesday, July 27th Keywords: Google/Microsoft/New Oriental earnings report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193e16fb4fe78e5aa5970d49f22910f\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"824\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the monthly rate of the U.S. existing home contract sales index</b>The latest data will be published.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google-A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Will announce the latest earnings report.</p><p>Analysts expect Microsoft to announce that its net profit will increase by 5% year-on-year to $17.29 billion when it announces its financial report after the market closes on Tuesday. In June this year, the company lowered its performance forecast, citing the exchange rate impact caused by the strengthening of the US dollar.<b>Furthermore,</b>Huawei is expected to hold a meeting on Wednesday (July 27)<b>New product launch</b>, will release the HarmonyOS 3.0 system.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, July 28: Meta/Qualcomm/Pfizer earnings report; Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 23, the preliminary value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the second quarter, and the preliminary value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in the second quarter</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1bbffa864d09731fdd7d9acd6663d2\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"955\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Thursday, in terms of economic data,</b>The US will announce<b>The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 23, the initial annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States, and the initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the second quarter of the United States.</b></p><p>According to the July 14-20 survey, 98 of 102 analysts expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.25%-2.50% at the end of the July 26-27 meeting. The remaining four said they expected a rate hike of 100 basis points. The median forecast of the latest survey shows a 40% chance that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in the coming year and a 50% chance within two years, up from the 25% and 40% estimates in the June survey.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>Will announce the latest earnings report.</p><p>Bloomberg's consensus forecast shows that MetaQ2 revenue is expected to fall by 0.2% year-on-year, and Non-GAAP net profit is expected to fall by 29.2% year-on-year. Some pessimistic analysts even expect the social media company to post zero growth for the first time in its history in the second quarter. Previously, CEO Zuckerberg had issued a warning to ask employees to prepare for a severe economic recession; It is expected that the second half of the year will be very difficult, because the company is facing macroeconomic pressure and data privacy impacts its advertising business.<b>Friday, July 29KEYWORDS: Apple/Amazon earnings; U.S. core PCE price index annual rate in June</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c16f36f27d0eaad156e05b6e397d4609\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"1013\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>On Friday, in terms of economic data, the United States will announce the annual rate of the core PCE price index in June.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Will announce the latest earnings report.</b></p><p>Wells Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers lowered the bank's target price on Apple by 9.76% from $205 per share to $185. He believes that COVID-19 pandemic in some regions, the deteriorating macro environment and the impact of the foreign exchange market are Apple's main risks. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty lowered her target price on Apple by $5 to $180 (a reduction of about 2.7%), saying supply chain issues and a strong dollar may limit the company's upside in sales in the second quarter of this year.<b>In terms of new shares,</b>China Education Stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JZ\">Knowledge education</a>It is expected to be listed on Nasdaq on July 29. The company plans to issue 5 million American depositary shares (ADS). Each American depositary receipt represents 2 common shares. The issue price range is US $5-7/ADS. The maximum fundraising is US $35 million.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! Apple, Microsoft and other tech stocks release earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming! Apple, Microsoft and other tech stocks release earnings\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-25 07:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (7.25-7.29)</b></p><p><b>Economic data:</b>At 2 a.m. Beijing time this Thursday (July 28), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and then Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference half an hour after the interest rate is announced. In addition, economic data such as the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 23, and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in June will also be released one after another.<b>For new shares:</b>There is no news of new stock listing in Hong Kong stocks. Jianzhi Education, a Chinese concept education stock in the US stock market, is in the process of IPO. It will be IPO from July 21 to July 28, and is expected to be listed on Nasdaq on July 29.<b>Financial report:</b>Google, Microsoft, META, Apple, Amazon and many other star technology stocks will release financial reports intensively. In addition, companies such as Coca-Cola, UBS, General Motors, McDonald's, New Oriental, Yum China, and TAL will also make performance disclosures one after another.<b>Furthermore,</b>You can pay attention to the opening of a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products on Tuesday, Huawei's new product launch conference on Wednesday, and China's official manufacturing PMI in July on Sunday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4baa8e91d5013d02344a13019d2b431e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday, July 25KEYWORDS: philips earnings report; Dallas Fed Business Activity Index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee784949d7e663bd8420bfac6901bf52\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday, in terms of economic data,</b>There is less heavy macro data,<b>Dallas Fed Business Activity Index</b>Will release<b>。</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Philips</a>The earnings report will be released before the U.S. stock market opens.</p><p><b>Tuesday, July 26KEYWORDS: Coca-Cola/McDonald's/WuXi AppTec earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09c6ab045e20df94651387d58d9e3021\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of economic data on Tuesday,</b>The United States will release<b>S&P/CS20 Metropolitan House Price Index Annual Rate, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index</b>And other macro data.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02359\">WuXi AppTec</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOS\">Coca-Cola</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">McDonald's</a>Will announce the latest earnings report.</p><p><b>In addition, domestic refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window.</b></p><p>At present, the change rate of comprehensive crude oil varieties is-5.52%. It is expected that the oil price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 321 yuan/ton, exceeding the red line of reduction. The equivalent liter is calculated as the expected oil price will be reduced by 0.24-0.29 yuan/liter. Domestic oil prices are in a state of decline. This oil price adjustment will It will be the fourth reduction in 2022 and the third consecutive reduction this year.<b>Wednesday, July 27th Keywords: Google/Microsoft/New Oriental earnings report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193e16fb4fe78e5aa5970d49f22910f\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"824\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the monthly rate of the U.S. existing home contract sales index</b>The latest data will be published.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google-A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Will announce the latest earnings report.</p><p>Analysts expect Microsoft to announce that its net profit will increase by 5% year-on-year to $17.29 billion when it announces its financial report after the market closes on Tuesday. In June this year, the company lowered its performance forecast, citing the exchange rate impact caused by the strengthening of the US dollar.<b>Furthermore,</b>Huawei is expected to hold a meeting on Wednesday (July 27)<b>New product launch</b>, will release the HarmonyOS 3.0 system.</p><p><b>Keywords for Thursday, July 28: Meta/Qualcomm/Pfizer earnings report; Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 23, the preliminary value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the second quarter, and the preliminary value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in the second quarter</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef1bbffa864d09731fdd7d9acd6663d2\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"955\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Thursday, in terms of economic data,</b>The US will announce<b>The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 23, the initial annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States, and the initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the second quarter of the United States.</b></p><p>According to the July 14-20 survey, 98 of 102 analysts expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.25%-2.50% at the end of the July 26-27 meeting. The remaining four said they expected a rate hike of 100 basis points. The median forecast of the latest survey shows a 40% chance that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in the coming year and a 50% chance within two years, up from the 25% and 40% estimates in the June survey.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>Will announce the latest earnings report.</p><p>Bloomberg's consensus forecast shows that MetaQ2 revenue is expected to fall by 0.2% year-on-year, and Non-GAAP net profit is expected to fall by 29.2% year-on-year. Some pessimistic analysts even expect the social media company to post zero growth for the first time in its history in the second quarter. Previously, CEO Zuckerberg had issued a warning to ask employees to prepare for a severe economic recession; It is expected that the second half of the year will be very difficult, because the company is facing macroeconomic pressure and data privacy impacts its advertising business.<b>Friday, July 29KEYWORDS: Apple/Amazon earnings; U.S. core PCE price index annual rate in June</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c16f36f27d0eaad156e05b6e397d4609\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"1013\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>On Friday, in terms of economic data, the United States will announce the annual rate of the core PCE price index in June.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Will announce the latest earnings report.</b></p><p>Wells Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers lowered the bank's target price on Apple by 9.76% from $205 per share to $185. He believes that COVID-19 pandemic in some regions, the deteriorating macro environment and the impact of the foreign exchange market are Apple's main risks. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty lowered her target price on Apple by $5 to $180 (a reduction of about 2.7%), saying supply chain issues and a strong dollar may limit the company's upside in sales in the second quarter of this year.<b>In terms of new shares,</b>China Education Stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JZ\">Knowledge education</a>It is expected to be listed on Nasdaq on July 29. The company plans to issue 5 million American depositary shares (ADS). Each American depositary receipt represents 2 common shares. The issue price range is US $5-7/ADS. The maximum fundraising is US $35 million.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","KO":"可口可乐","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173956998","content_text":"本周（7.25—7.29）重磅财经事件经济数据方面：北京时间本周四（7月28日）凌晨2点，美联储将公布利率决议，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将在利率公布半小时后召开新闻发布会。此外，美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率、美国至7月23日当周初请失业金人数、美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率等经济数据也将陆续出炉。新股方面：港股暂无新股上市消息，美股中概教育股见知教育正在招股中，其于7月21日-7月28日招股，预计于7月29日于纳斯达克上市。财报方面：谷歌、微软、META、苹果、亚马逊等多家明星科技股将密集发布财报。此外，可口可乐、瑞银、通用汽车、麦当劳、新东方、百胜中国、好未来等公司也将陆续作出业绩披露。此外，可关注周二的国内成品油开启新一轮调价窗口、周三的华为新品发布会以及周日的中国7月官方制造业PMI。7月25日 周一关键词：飞利浦财报；达拉斯联储商业活动指数周一，经济数据方面，重磅的宏观数据较少，达拉斯联储商业活动指数将发布。财报方面，飞利浦将于美股盘前发布财报。7月26日 周二关键词：可口可乐/麦当劳/药明康德财报周二，经济数据方面，美国将发布S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数年率、里奇蒙德联储制造业指数等宏观数据。财报方面，药明康德、可口可乐、麦当劳将公布最新财报。此外，国内成品油将开启新一轮调价窗口。目前，综合原油品种变化率为-5.52%，预计汽柴油下调油价321元/吨,超过下调红线，折合升计算为预计油价下调0.24-0.29元/升，国内油价呈下跌状态，此次油价调整将会是2022年第4次下调，也是今年内连续第三次下调。7月27日 周三关键词：谷歌/微软/新东方财报周三，经济数据方面，美国成屋签约销售指数月率将公布最新数据。财报方面，微软、谷歌-A、新东方、波音将公布最新财报。分析师预计微软于本周二盘后公布财报时料宣布，净利润同比增长5%至172.9亿美元。今年6月，该公司曾下调了业绩预期，理由是美元走强造成的汇率影响。此外，华为预计在周三（7月27日）召开新品发布会，将发布鸿蒙OS 3.0系统。7月28日 周四关键词：Meta/高通/辉瑞财报；美联储利率决议、美国至7月23日当周初请失业金人数、美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率初值、美国第二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值周四，经济数据方面，美国将公布至7月23日当周初请失业金人数、美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率初值、美国第二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值。7月14-20日的调查显示，102位分析师中有98位预计美联储将在7月26-27日会议结束时将利率提高75个基点至2.25%-2.50%。其余四位称预计加息100个基点。最新调查的预测中值显示，未来一年美国经济陷入衰退的可能性为 40%，两年内的可能性为50%，高于6月份调查中预估的25%和40%。财报方面，高通、Meta Platforms、辉瑞将公布最新财报。彭博一致预期显示，MetaQ2营收预计同比下降0.2%，Non-GAAP净利预计同比下降29.2%。甚至有悲观的分析师预计，这家社交媒体公司将在第二季度出现历史上的首次零增长。此前，CEO扎克伯格曾发出警告，要员工为经济严重衰退做好准备；预计下半年经营情况将会十分艰难，原因是公司正面临宏观经济压力，而且数据隐私冲击其广告业务。7月29日 周五关键词：苹果/亚马逊财报；美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率周五，经济数据方面，美国将公布6月核心PCE物价指数年率。财报方面，苹果、亚马逊将公布最新财报。富国证券分析师Aaron Rakers将该行对苹果的目标价从每股205美元下调9.76%至185美元，他认为一些地区的新冠疫情、恶化的宏观环境以及外汇市场的影响是苹果的最主要风险。大摩分析师Katy Huberty将其对苹果的目标价格降低了5美元至180美元（下调幅度约为2.7%），称供应链问题和强势美元可能会限制公司今年二季度销售量的上行空间。新股方面，中概教育股见知教育预计于7月29日于纳斯达克上市，公司计划发行500万美国存托股票（ADS），每1股美国存托凭证代表2股普通股，发行价格区间为5-7美元/ADS，最高筹资3500万美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"KO":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053524656,"gmtCreate":1654563583976,"gmtModify":1676535469457,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053524656","repostId":"1125061547","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027922329,"gmtCreate":1653961025961,"gmtModify":1676535369897,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SOXS 20220902 40.5 CALL\">$SOXS 20220902 40.5 CALL$</a>💰🎉","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SOXS 20220902 40.5 CALL\">$SOXS 20220902 40.5 CALL$</a>💰🎉","text":"$SOXS 20220902 40.5 CALL$💰🎉","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de2a59ccbe73be76c1f3b10432864bd3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939834841","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996368131,"gmtCreate":1661125939825,"gmtModify":1676536455865,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MCD\">$麦当劳(MCD)$</a>💪","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MCD\">$麦当劳(MCD)$</a>💪","text":"$麦当劳(MCD)$💪","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a86bfce7af1b9a29284c26dc49133752","width":"1080","height":"3564"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996368131","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9990293121,"gmtCreate":1660354417465,"gmtModify":1676533456777,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/MCD 20220819 265.0 CALL\">$MCD 20220819 265.0 CALL$</a>😎💪","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/MCD 20220819 265.0 CALL\">$MCD 20220819 265.0 CALL$</a>😎💪","text":"$MCD 20220819 265.0 CALL$😎💪","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/664faa51651e8a737f98ca1f3297ddb8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9990293121","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9901732061,"gmtCreate":1659265499253,"gmtModify":1676536278963,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XLK\">$高科技指数ETF-SPDR(XLK)$</a>💪","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XLK\">$高科技指数ETF-SPDR(XLK)$</a>💪","text":"$高科技指数ETF-SPDR(XLK)$💪","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/80aa588faaf2ca5c0ae5861d18b9b4bb","width":"1080","height":"3564"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9901732061","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9901341083,"gmtCreate":1659142625142,"gmtModify":1676536263471,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9901341083","repostId":"1182404599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182404599","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659087664,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182404599?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-29 17:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182404599","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"第三季度或是美股和港股2022年重要的投资时间窗口美股方面，联储尚处于加息通道，且宏观层面有滞胀预期，但我们认为美股在第三季度会有一轮反弹。这主要得益于三季度的信息真空期：1）宏观层面，CPI同比难创","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The third quarter may be an important investment time window for US stocks and Hong Kong stocks in 2022</b></p><p>In terms of U.S. stocks, the Federal Reserve is still in a rate hike channel, and there are expectations of stagflation at the macro level, but we believe that U.S. stocks will rebound in the third quarter. This is mainly due to the information vacuum period in the third quarter: 1) At the macro level, it is difficult for CPI to hit a new high year-on-year. It is only a matter of how much it will decline from July to August. GDP is a lagging indicator of the market and has limited impact on future stock price trends; 2) At the micro level, there is no catalyst for downward revision of corporate performance during the mid-term report season; 3) At the monetary level, the September FOMC meeting is still some time away, and the Fed's attitude has turned marginally dovish. On the disk, after the negative factors were quickly cleared, U.S. stocks can still rise day by day, reflecting that U.S. stock investors have abundant bullish strength.</p><p>In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell from July last year to March this year. The low-level volatility pattern has been maintained for a quarter, and the rebound potential is sufficient. Fundamentally, we believe that China's macro-economy has bottomed out in the second quarter, and the downward revision trend of individual stock performance is expected to end in the mid-term report season. There may be two situations in the second half of this year: 1) If there is a rebound in the third quarter, we recommend that investors be cautious in the fourth quarter; 2) It fluctuated at low levels in the third quarter and rebounded in the fourth quarter. In either case, we recommend that investors lay out in the third quarter and prepare for a rebound.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p>We provide investors with 4 rebound logics: 1) The profit forecast has not been lowered, but the valuation repair logic brought about by the oversold stock price; 2) Find a business model that resists stagflation; 3) Use high growth momentum to break through economic recession; 4) The mandatory demand for institutional investors to cover positions brought about by early oversold. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Company: Plenty of room for valuation repair; The business model is rigid at the beginning of the economic recession; It belongs to an emerging industry with a high growth rate; The previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. In line with 4/4 rebound logic, it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicle</b>Manufacturer: Plenty of room for valuation repair; Located on the sweet spot of the permeability curve, the growth rate is expected to be high; The optional consumer sector to which it belongs has experienced a large decline in the early stage, and investors have the need to cover their positions. In line with 3/4 rebound logic, the second push.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor</b>Industry: There is room for valuation repair; Good cost transmission ability and anti-inflation; High growth rate; Oversold in the early stage. It conforms to the 4/4 rebound logic, but there is a risk of high performance before and then low performance. It is recommended.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p>We provide investors with 2 main rebound logics: 1) The valuation repair logic brought about by a small/no reduction in profit forecast, but a large decline; 2) Risk appetite rises, and growth stocks benefit from the logic. And 2 secondary logics: 1) Treat the company's early repurchase behavior as management's endorsement of fundamentals; 2) Look for arbitrage space in companies with high premiums for AH shares. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors, especially<b>CXO</b>And<b>Biological drugs</b>。 They have sufficient room for valuation repair and are expected to grow at a high rate, which is expected to benefit from rising risk appetite. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, and it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. They also have better valuation repair space and higher performance growth expectations, but they must be alert to the risk of high performance before and then low performance. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, but there is 1 risk, which is the second push.</p><p>3. Also recommended<b>Internet companies</b>as well as<b>Hang Seng Technology Index</b>。</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p><b>Overall outlook for U.S. stocks' trading logic in the third quarter</b></p><p>We believe that the third quarter will be an important time window for investing in US stocks this year. In the third quarter, we saw three periods of information vacuum:</p><p>1. Vacuum period of macro data. Judging from high-frequency data such as commodities, it is difficult for the CPI from July to August to exceed the 9.1% year-on-year increase in June, which is nothing more than the difference in the size of the decline. In terms of GDP, the GDP of the United States in the second quarter was-0.9% month-on-month, but the overall GDP is an indicator that lags behind the broader market, and the expected pattern of macro recession has been finalized (the inversion of US Treasury yields in 10-2 years has stabilized) does not generally constitute the impact of the market trend.</p><p>2. The vacuum period of corporate profit performance. Since the arrival of the interim report season, the semi-annual performance of U.S. stock companies has generally been in line with expectations. Although economic recession expectations are gradually taking shape at the macro level, there is still a lack of catalyst for the downward revision of corporate performance at the micro level, and we need to further wait for the performance of companies in the third quarter.</p><p>3. The vacuum period of monetary policy. Rate hike's 75bp boots landed in July, and the market expects the pace of rate hike to slow down in September. Consistent with market expectations, Fed officials' speeches and FOMC statements turned significantly marginally dove. This tendency has a small probability of reversal in the short term. At the same time, there are still 2 months before the next boots land.</p><p>From the disk point of view, we realize that the bullish power in the US market is still sufficient-the negative factors are quickly cleared in the market, and then the stock market can return to the upward trend day by day. Therefore, we believe that the third quarter of this year is an important time window for U.S. stock investment, and investors are expected to benefit from the rebound.</p><p><b>The investment logic of the US stock rebound and the first industry</b></p><p>In this rebound strategy, we use four sets of logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>: If the company's profit forecast has been raised (or not lowered), but the stock price has fallen, it will enjoy the opportunity of priority valuation repair in the rebound market;</p><p>2.<b>Stagflation-resistant business model</b>: In the case of stagflation expectations at the macro level, companies whose business models can naturally withstand economic recession or high inflation will be favored by investors in the rebound market;</p><p>3.<b>Growth stock logic</b>: Take offense as defense, and break through the limitations of the economic recession environment with higher growth momentum;</p><p>4.<b>Oversold logic</b>: It fell much in the early stage, and it may rise much in the later stage. For institutional investors, the sectors with larger declines may have exceeded the preset lower limit of allocation ratio, and they will have to cover their positions in these oversold sectors.</p><p>We make a summary of the recommended industries:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Inc. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the prepaid income is accrued according to time, and the business model has strong short-term anti-recession ability; Logic 3, emerging industries with high growth potential; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. SaaS companies in the software industry are the intersection of four rebound logics, and are the first to be recommended.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicles in automobiles</b>。 In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; In line with logic three, it is located at the sweet spot of the penetration curve, the growth rate is expected to be high, and it is expected to cross the cycle; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and there was a need to cover positions. Four logics account for three, recommended.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor Industry</b>It is also one of our key recommendations. The main opportunities lie in the new energy fields and cloud computing fields, giving priority to public products. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the competitive landscape is stable, with strong bargaining power and cost transmission ability; In line with logic three, the growth rate is expected to be high; In line with logic 4, there is a need to cover positions. The risk lies in the large sales volume of servers and computers in the early stage, and there is a risk of overdraft demand. We must be wary of high performance before and low performance. Semiconductors account for all four rebound logics, but there is one risk, which is recommended.</p><p>4. In addition, we recommend that investors consider the hotel and entertainment sectors driven by the recovery of the epidemic, and the pharmaceutical CXO sector with large room for valuation recovery.</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>The first logic to look for a rebound is valuation repair. Specific to the execution level, we believe that the performance expectation has not been revised downward, but stocks whose stock prices have fallen will have room for valuation repair during the rebound, showing stronger flexibility. For performance expectations, we use the adjustment range of Bloomberg's consensus expected profit of listed companies in 2023 (if the company is not profitable, we use the revenue adjustment range instead); Stock Price Performance, we use the company's stock price movement year-to-date.</p><p>We did a simple +13% treatment for the stock price decline (13% is the average decline of our sample stocks) to offset the stock price pressure that liquidity tightening brings to be fair for all stocks. For the processed rise and fall, we call it \"relative rise and fall\". If the performance adjustment range of a company minus the relative increase or decrease of the stock price is greater than 0%, it means that the stock has room for valuation repair. That is, the following formula:</p><p>Valuation repair space = performance adjustment range-relative increase and decrease</p><p>One point to add is that in addition to the quantitative limitation of valuation repair space, valuation repair also has a qualitative requirement-it must fall in the early stage, not rise. A typical case that is not suitable for valuation repair logic is the energy sector. Since the beginning of the year, the performance increase of the energy sector has been greater than the increase in stock prices. However, the stock price is generally rising, not falling, so there is no way to talk about a \"rebound\".</p><p>From the data point of view, the sectors with large room for valuation repair are:</p><p>1.<b>Non-daily consumer goods (optional consumption)-automobile segment</b>There is a lot of room for valuation repair. But looking at it, the valuation restoration space of this sector is basically concentrated on new energy vehicle manufacturers represented by Tesla (TSLA US).</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology-Semiconductor Segment</b>, the performance in the first half of this year was generally raised, but the stock price fell. Subdivided companies with large room for valuation repair include automotive semiconductor manufacturers (such as ON Semiconductor ON US) and GPU manufacturers with cloud concepts (such as NVDA US and AMD US).</p><p>3.<b>IT-Software Industry</b>The differentiation of valuation repair space is relatively serious, but there are some stocks with advanced valuation repair space, generally SaaS companies.</p><p>4.<b>Healthcare-Life Sciences Tools & Services (CXO)</b>Generally, there is a certain room for valuation repair. Includes some companies whose performance has been revised upward, but whose stock prices have fallen sharply.</p><p>5.<b>Information Technology-Communication equipment</b>The change in performance expectations is relatively stable, but the decline is relatively large. It is expected to attract the attention of defensive-style investors in the next rally.</p><p>Those industries that have a lot of room for valuation repair, but we do not highly recommend:</p><p>1.<b>Finance-Commercial Banking</b>There is also a relatively large room for valuation repair, mainly due to the relatively large increase in bank performance in the early stage, which has a certain allocation value. However, banks have a large market value and are not our first choice when pursuing a rebound.</p><p>2.<b>energy</b>The valuation repair space readings are high. However, in the first half of the year, energy was on the rise, and there was no way to talk about a \"rebound\", so we do not recommend it.</p><p>3.<b>Industrial-Building Products</b>There is relatively large room for valuation repair, but their performance expectations generally show a slight downward trend, and there may be a lack of catalysts for rebound.</p><p>4.<b>Raw materials</b>The industry is facing pressure from high-frequency commodity price data peaking and falling back. At the same time, due to high operating leverage, slight changes in revenue may cause drastic fluctuations in profits. We recommend careful consideration.</p><p>5. We will not go into details about industries with too small sample size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcf7716e176d14fb293c49d27e6d3cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ec42def97349edfa95c07fdf1879cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c824c1fc42398bc9fc05b99707ff3b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bf5f271d8a8fa1ac2d7d52b0152d62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Anti-stagflation business model</b></p><p>The two key words of stagflation, one is \"stagflation\"-representing economic recession; One is \"inflation\"-representing rising costs. So, we need to find a business model that can fight the recession or transmit costs. We will give examples of several industries.</p><p><b>Software Industry SaaS Company</b></p><p>SaaS companies in the software industry are one of our most optimistic segments. Their revenue side adopts the customer prepaid subscription model, charging customers a fee in advance, determining the length of service time, and then recognizing this fee as revenue monthly/quarterly. On the cost side, the main cost of SaaS companies is marketing expenditure, and marketing expenditure is also paid to sales staff first, and then gradually confirmed with revenue. Therefore, SaaS companies will show strong performance rigidity and reflect their advantages in the early stages of the economic recession. Examples of such SaaS companies include cloud platform security system provider Datadog (DDOG US), cloud data platform company Zscaler (ZS US), and identification system company OKTA (OKTA US).</p><p>At the same time, we should be cautious about other models of software companies. Their revenue comes from IT expenditure in enterprise capital expenditure-an expenditure that is highly sensitive to the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Internet intermediary platform</b></p><p>In terms of fighting inflation, we believe that some Internet intermediary platforms will perform very well. Their revenue is usually based on GMV-the volume of transactions on the platform, multiplied by a fixed rate (take rate). With high inflation, their GMV will rise with rapidly increasing prices. An example of this is Airbnb (ABNB US), which provides travelers with accommodation intermediary services and charges based on the GBV (a variation of the GMV). Since the year-on-year growth rate of hotel projects in the CPI has been at a high level of about 20% recently, Airbnb's GBV, and then revenue, will also be driven upward by the higher growth rate of wine and travel prices. Some companies under the Internet Marketing and Direct Retail segment also fall into this category, such as Amazon (AMZN US) and eBay (EBAY US).</p><p><b>Semiconductor Manufacturing</b></p><p>In addition, we are optimistic about some manufacturing companies with strong bargaining power, such as the semiconductor manufacturing industry-they have high technical barriers and a relatively stable market structure. For leaders, there is some room to increase prices according to demand. This helps them transmit the pressure on the cost side downstream. In these companies, the price of consumer products, such as CPUs used in PCs, will be relatively inelastic. Companies with a higher proportion of corporate business will have a greater advantage, because corporate products are more price elastic than consumer products. More typical examples are automotive semiconductor manufacturers, such as ON US.</p><p><b>Logic 3: Growth stock logic</b></p><p>As we mentioned in our interim strategy report, growth is precious in times of economic downturn. We believe growth is the best defense. Therefore, we also recommend that investors give priority to industries and targets with higher expected growth rates. If these targets also have the previous two logics, it is the best choice.</p><p>At present, several industries with relatively high expected growth rates are as follows:</p><p>1.<b>Optional consumption</b>, the main growth point is<b>automobile</b>And<b>Hotel catering</b>INDUSTRY. Wherein,<b>automobile</b>There is a big differentiation within the sector. New energy car companies Tesla (TSLA US) and Lucid (LCID US) have higher growth expectations, while the growth expectations of traditional car companies are relatively mediocre.<b>Hotel catering</b>It mainly benefits from the fact that the hotel industry is recovering from the epidemic, with two driving factors: low base and concentrated demand outbreak, and the growth rate of catering (especially fast food) is relatively mediocre.</p><p>2.<b>Communication Services</b>In the plate,<b>recreation</b>The growth rate of the industry is relatively strong. The main high-growth companies are Walt Disney (DIS US) involved in travel concepts, concert hosting company Live Nation (LYV US) and game company Electronic Arts (EA US). The first two mainly benefit from the recovery of social activities, while the latter has a relatively stable and rapid growth in in-game value-added service revenue.</p><p>3.<b>Information Technology</b>Under-plate<b>Semiconductor</b>And<b>Software industry</b>。 Wherein,<b>Semiconductor</b>There are many high-growth companies in the industry. But we must be wary of companies with high growth expectations in 2022 and low growth expectations in 2023. Because the sales of computers and servers are relatively high in the near future, we should be wary of the risk of overdraft of early demand and the performance of related companies in 2022 will be high before and then low. We focus on selecting companies that analysts believe can still increase their performance in 2023, such as MRVL US, Enphase Energy (ENPH US), SolarEdge Technology (SEDG US), and Nvidia (NVDA US).<b>Software industry</b>, we believe that it should be further distinguished into traditional software companies and SaaS companies. The expected growth rate of SaaS companies is second only to the new energy vehicle sector, such as Datadog (DDOG US) and Zscaler (ZS US), which are our highly recommended industries.</p><p>4. For industries with high CAGR but too uneven growth rates or too small sample sizes in 2022 and 2023, we do not recommend sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e221f9b70bf80ea6a2d3d13e63ec9436\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea2617cdcee9c2759498d8c8d540948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f8b0b4d4d07b5ee9bdd21a35855718\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a6e719cf587946d7cf63bb33bae409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: Oversold logic</b></p><p>Since institutional investors usually have pre-determined position structure requirements (for example, the proportion of a certain sector's shareholding in the investment portfolio must be within a certain range), in the case of uneven rises and falls of various sectors in the market, the previous increase The sector with a larger increase will face a greater selling pressure, and the sector with a larger decline will benefit from investors' demand for covering positions.</p><p>We use the GICS plate as a reference standard. It is not difficult to see that the performance of the U.S. stock energy sector in the first half of 2022 is unique. This means that the proportion of stocks in the energy sector in the positions of institutional investors may have exceeded the predetermined upper limit of the position ratio. In this case, investors will have to reduce their holdings of shares in the energy sector. On the contrary,<b>Communication Services</b>、<b>Optional consumption</b>And<b>Information Technology</b>Sectors have experienced large year-to-date declines, so they are more likely to have broken through the lower limit of investors' positions in these sectors, in which case investors will have to increase their allocation to these sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e5300923df0191ae42145fa455991\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk: Be wary of high-frequency production/sales data</b></p><p>One point that needs to be emphasized is that we believe that the performance expectations of US stock companies are not without room for downward adjustment, but there is a short-term lack of catalysts. Therefore, when we use the information vacuum to trade, we must be alert to the emergence of high-frequency data, such as retail data-they cover food and beverage, automobiles, drugs, clothing, energy and other segments. Therefore, if we seize short-term opportunities in the US market with stagflation expectations, these areas need to be extra cautious. In terms of price data, we don't think there is need to worry too much, because as far as we have observed so far, the market is generally price-neutral in fundamental trading.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p><b>Brief introduction of short-term market conditions of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Since the high point in February 2021, the Hang Seng Index first experienced a plateau period from March to June, remaining volatile at 29,000 points. The decline began in July 2021 and bottomed out in March 2022. The Hang Seng Index is currently fluctuating at a low level of 20,000-23,000 points. From a macro perspective, China's economy bottomed out in the second quarter, and the macro aspect is expected to achieve a V-shaped reversal in the third quarter. From a micro perspective, the downward revision trend of company performance in the Hong Kong stock market has continued for a whole year from July 2021 to the present. With the advent of the performance period in the second quarter, we believe that the downward revision of performance is expected to be generally completed before the silent period, and the market's expectation of the company is expected to stabilize with the end of the performance period. For now, we believe that Hong Kong stocks have accumulated strong rebound potential. There are two possibilities in the second half of the year:</p><p>1. Hong Kong stocks rebounded in the third quarter. Then our suggestion is that investors can consider completing the layout and taking profits in the third quarter, and wait and see cautiously in the fourth quarter.</p><p>2. Hong Kong stocks maintained a low and volatile trend in the third quarter. Then we believe that Hong Kong stocks will achieve a U-shaped reversal in the fourth quarter of this year after macroeconomic risks are cleared.</p><p>No matter which situation happens, our advice to investors is to make a good layout in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock market rebound logic in the third quarter and main industries</b></p><p>We believe that there are the following four logics for the rebound of Hong Kong stocks. The first two are the main logics and the latter two are the supplementary logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>。 Like U.S. stocks, the previous decline was relatively large, but if the downward revision of performance expectations is not as good as the decline, there is room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Risk preference switching logic</b>。 We found that at the high level of the market, companies with high growth rates have greater valuation advantages; At the low level of the market, the valuation premium of high-growth companies decreases. Therefore, from an overall perspective, when the market rebounds from low to high, high-growth companies will benefit from the valuation increase brought about by the switch of market risk appetite. We call this a \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>3.<b>Share repurchase logic</b>。 As mentioned in the \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Repurchase Data Bottom-Hunting Strategy-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022) we released earlier, we believe that listed companies have sent signals at the macro level: They believe that their stock price is undervalued at 23,000 points on the Hang Seng Index. Despite the later military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and two black swan incidents in Shanghai and COVID-19 pandemic, we believe that the long-term value of most domestic companies will not change significantly. We can look for companies with large repurchase volume in this round of decline to invest in, because their prospects are more endorsed by the company's management. At the micro level, this is a secondary logic, and it is recommended to be used in conjunction with the above two main logics.</p><p>4.<b>AH share premium logic</b>。 At present, the Shanghai-Hong Kong AH premium index has been at the top position since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect, and has a certain correction potential. We believe that stocks with AH dual listings and historically high premiums are also worthy of investors' consideration. This is a secondary logic.</p><p>To sum up the above four rebound logics, our key recommendations are as follows:</p><p>1. Top recommendation<b>Healthcare</b>All sub-sections except chemicals are listed. Especially recommended<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>。 They have both valuation repair space and high growth expectations, while benefiting from the first two rebound logics.</p><p>2. Second recommendation<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. This sector has both valuation repair space and risk appetite switching logic, but we must be alert to the risk of some individual stocks' performance in 2022-2023 being high before and then low.</p><p>3. Additionally recommended<b>New energy vehicles and advertising in the media</b>Plate. They have high growth expectations, belong to emerging industries, and may benefit from the switch of risk appetite.</p><p>4. Finally, we recommend<b>Internet companies</b>, they are the core stocks that have attracted much attention in Hong Kong stocks, and are likely to become the standard bearer of the rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>5. The stocks we recommend cover most of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Technology Index. Therefore, we recommend at the index level<b>Hang Seng Technology</b>。</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>Similar to the valuation repair logic we use in U.S. stocks, if the reduction in performance expectations of a stock/industry is less than the decline in stock prices, then there is room for valuation repair in the rebound.</p><p>We uniformly adopted a +31% treatment for the rise and fall of stock prices (31% is the average decline of sample stocks in the second half of 2021 to date) to distinguish companies that have fallen larger than and smaller than the prevailing situation. When calculating the valuation repair space, for companies with stable profits, we take the change of profit expectations as the standard, and for companies that cannot make stable profits, we take the revenue expectations as the standard.</p><p>Based on the data, we make recommendations for the following industries in terms of valuation repair logic:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sections under. We highly recommend<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>, these companies generally experienced a sharp pullback/retracement in stock prices in the early stage, but their performance expectations have been raised. Furthermore,<b>Medical and Health Equipment and Services</b>The sector also has ample room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Two sub-plates under.<b>Semiconductor</b>There is great differentiation within the industry, and there is plenty of room for valuation repair of SMIC (981 HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK).<b>Technology hardware</b>Mainly Xiaomi and Lenovo, the sample size is small, so it is not recommended for the sector.</p><p>3. The sample size of dealers under optional consumption and building products under industry is too small to be repeated; The median early decline of shipping under industry is low, and there is no room for operation under the rebound logic, so it is not recommended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da8772831406f08d537f0be3654a440\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41003be5c098c8c43962a38b9021624\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae84e4ee3eb70a4f151573ae0496af7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56bc30ba442fac3d8b344365b7ad722c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Risk preference switching logic</b></p><p>We compared the expected 2-year CAGR of revenue and the PS at that time at two time points (revenue and PS are mainly used to cover unprofitable companies). These two time points are the end of February 2021-the high level of the Hang Seng Index, and current.</p><p>We find that when the market is at a high point, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks is amplified; When the market goes down, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks will be reduced. We believe this is mainly due to the switch of market risk appetite. From the perspective of graphics, the stock expectation-valuation regression line at different points in time seems to have been rotated, so we call it the \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>Since February 2021, the \"risk appetite pointer\" has rotated clockwise with the downward trend of the market, and the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks has been weakened; On the contrary, when there is a rebound opportunity in the market, we believe that these high-growth stocks will also benefit from the counterclockwise rotation of the \"risk appetite pointer\" and the rise of risk appetite at the valuation level. Combined with the expectation of improving fundamentals in the third quarter, high-growth stocks are expected to usher in Davis' double-click.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b8beaee31c9d313677b2799c73ee5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From an industry perspective, the following industries currently have high growth expectations:</p><p>1.<b>Cars under optional consumption</b>。<b>Automotive segment</b>Mainly benefiting from some companies participating in the new energy vehicle market, the growth rate of traditional automobile manufacturing companies is relatively low. So we advise investors to lock in<b>New energy vehicle</b>, not all car companies.</p><p>2.<b>Semiconductor sector under information technology</b>。 Except for individual stocks, they generally have relatively optimistic revenue CAGR expectations. However, we recommend that investors pay attention to the risk of high and low performance when selecting semiconductor companies.</p><p>3.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors under, especially<b>Biological drugs</b>。 Except for the pharmaceutical sector, the healthcare sector showed a gratifying growth trend. The growth rate of the pharmaceutical sub-sector is low, mainly due to the drag down of traditional chemical pharmaceutical companies.</p><p>4.<b>Media segment under Communication Services</b>, especially the performance growth rate of advertising companies is expected to be relatively high.</p><p>5. Hotel catering under optional consumption and airline sub-sectors under industry both have high growth expectations, but they are both traditional industries that benefit from the logic of epidemic recovery. Although the growth rate is expected to be high, it may not benefit from the rise in risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196f861399211f74f7dadbd6d51b238c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Logic 3: Share repurchase logic</b></p><p>In our earlier special report \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Bottom-hunting Strategy for Repurchase Data-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022), we conducted a study on the relationship between the company's repurchase behavior and the broader market and individual stocks research. We believe that the company's early repurchase behavior is also a bonus, which can be understood as the company's \"bottom-hunting\" of its own stocks.</p><p>When the first two more important rebound logics are in place, the company's repurchase behavior provides us with further protection. But this is a secondary logic, and we recommend that investors only use it as a useful addition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c367411a0e2146523849f12059ec165b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: AH share premium logic</b></p><p>Hong Kong Stock Connect was opened in November 2014. We observed the premium of AH shares since 2015 and found that the premium of AH shares has reached a high level at present, breaking through the +1 standard deviation level for a considerable distance. For companies listed in AH and AH, we believe that the high premium of AH shares will also help the H shares of related companies to achieve a stock price rebound.</p><p>However, we generally believe that this logic is not enough to support the companies listed in AH and AH alone to create excess returns. We suggest that investors choose the best among the companies listed in AH and AH on the basis of combining the first two main rebound logics. Relevant overlapping targets include biopharmaceuticals, CXO companies, some new energy vehicle industry chain companies, and a small number of semiconductor companies</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd85f18d2127e76f6975518f8fcc0ccc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-29 17:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The third quarter may be an important investment time window for US stocks and Hong Kong stocks in 2022</b></p><p>In terms of U.S. stocks, the Federal Reserve is still in a rate hike channel, and there are expectations of stagflation at the macro level, but we believe that U.S. stocks will rebound in the third quarter. This is mainly due to the information vacuum period in the third quarter: 1) At the macro level, it is difficult for CPI to hit a new high year-on-year. It is only a matter of how much it will decline from July to August. GDP is a lagging indicator of the market and has limited impact on future stock price trends; 2) At the micro level, there is no catalyst for downward revision of corporate performance during the mid-term report season; 3) At the monetary level, the September FOMC meeting is still some time away, and the Fed's attitude has turned marginally dovish. On the disk, after the negative factors were quickly cleared, U.S. stocks can still rise day by day, reflecting that U.S. stock investors have abundant bullish strength.</p><p>In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell from July last year to March this year. The low-level volatility pattern has been maintained for a quarter, and the rebound potential is sufficient. Fundamentally, we believe that China's macro-economy has bottomed out in the second quarter, and the downward revision trend of individual stock performance is expected to end in the mid-term report season. There may be two situations in the second half of this year: 1) If there is a rebound in the third quarter, we recommend that investors be cautious in the fourth quarter; 2) It fluctuated at low levels in the third quarter and rebounded in the fourth quarter. In either case, we recommend that investors lay out in the third quarter and prepare for a rebound.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p>We provide investors with 4 rebound logics: 1) The profit forecast has not been lowered, but the valuation repair logic brought about by the oversold stock price; 2) Find a business model that resists stagflation; 3) Use high growth momentum to break through economic recession; 4) The mandatory demand for institutional investors to cover positions brought about by early oversold. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Company: Plenty of room for valuation repair; The business model is rigid at the beginning of the economic recession; It belongs to an emerging industry with a high growth rate; The previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. In line with 4/4 rebound logic, it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicle</b>Manufacturer: Plenty of room for valuation repair; Located on the sweet spot of the permeability curve, the growth rate is expected to be high; The optional consumer sector to which it belongs has experienced a large decline in the early stage, and investors have the need to cover their positions. In line with 3/4 rebound logic, the second push.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor</b>Industry: There is room for valuation repair; Good cost transmission ability and anti-inflation; High growth rate; Oversold in the early stage. It conforms to the 4/4 rebound logic, but there is a risk of high performance before and then low performance. It is recommended.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p>We provide investors with 2 main rebound logics: 1) The valuation repair logic brought about by a small/no reduction in profit forecast, but a large decline; 2) Risk appetite rises, and growth stocks benefit from the logic. And 2 secondary logics: 1) Treat the company's early repurchase behavior as management's endorsement of fundamentals; 2) Look for arbitrage space in companies with high premiums for AH shares. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors, especially<b>CXO</b>And<b>Biological drugs</b>。 They have sufficient room for valuation repair and are expected to grow at a high rate, which is expected to benefit from rising risk appetite. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, and it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. They also have better valuation repair space and higher performance growth expectations, but they must be alert to the risk of high performance before and then low performance. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, but there is 1 risk, which is the second push.</p><p>3. Also recommended<b>Internet companies</b>as well as<b>Hang Seng Technology Index</b>。</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p><b>Overall outlook for U.S. stocks' trading logic in the third quarter</b></p><p>We believe that the third quarter will be an important time window for investing in US stocks this year. In the third quarter, we saw three periods of information vacuum:</p><p>1. Vacuum period of macro data. Judging from high-frequency data such as commodities, it is difficult for the CPI from July to August to exceed the 9.1% year-on-year increase in June, which is nothing more than the difference in the size of the decline. In terms of GDP, the GDP of the United States in the second quarter was-0.9% month-on-month, but the overall GDP is an indicator that lags behind the broader market, and the expected pattern of macro recession has been finalized (the inversion of US Treasury yields in 10-2 years has stabilized) does not generally constitute the impact of the market trend.</p><p>2. The vacuum period of corporate profit performance. Since the arrival of the interim report season, the semi-annual performance of U.S. stock companies has generally been in line with expectations. Although economic recession expectations are gradually taking shape at the macro level, there is still a lack of catalyst for the downward revision of corporate performance at the micro level, and we need to further wait for the performance of companies in the third quarter.</p><p>3. The vacuum period of monetary policy. Rate hike's 75bp boots landed in July, and the market expects the pace of rate hike to slow down in September. Consistent with market expectations, Fed officials' speeches and FOMC statements turned significantly marginally dove. This tendency has a small probability of reversal in the short term. At the same time, there are still 2 months before the next boots land.</p><p>From the disk point of view, we realize that the bullish power in the US market is still sufficient-the negative factors are quickly cleared in the market, and then the stock market can return to the upward trend day by day. Therefore, we believe that the third quarter of this year is an important time window for U.S. stock investment, and investors are expected to benefit from the rebound.</p><p><b>The investment logic of the US stock rebound and the first industry</b></p><p>In this rebound strategy, we use four sets of logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>: If the company's profit forecast has been raised (or not lowered), but the stock price has fallen, it will enjoy the opportunity of priority valuation repair in the rebound market;</p><p>2.<b>Stagflation-resistant business model</b>: In the case of stagflation expectations at the macro level, companies whose business models can naturally withstand economic recession or high inflation will be favored by investors in the rebound market;</p><p>3.<b>Growth stock logic</b>: Take offense as defense, and break through the limitations of the economic recession environment with higher growth momentum;</p><p>4.<b>Oversold logic</b>: It fell much in the early stage, and it may rise much in the later stage. For institutional investors, the sectors with larger declines may have exceeded the preset lower limit of allocation ratio, and they will have to cover their positions in these oversold sectors.</p><p>We make a summary of the recommended industries:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Inc. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the prepaid income is accrued according to time, and the business model has strong short-term anti-recession ability; Logic 3, emerging industries with high growth potential; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. SaaS companies in the software industry are the intersection of four rebound logics, and are the first to be recommended.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicles in automobiles</b>。 In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; In line with logic three, it is located at the sweet spot of the penetration curve, the growth rate is expected to be high, and it is expected to cross the cycle; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and there was a need to cover positions. Four logics account for three, recommended.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor Industry</b>It is also one of our key recommendations. The main opportunities lie in the new energy fields and cloud computing fields, giving priority to public products. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the competitive landscape is stable, with strong bargaining power and cost transmission ability; In line with logic three, the growth rate is expected to be high; In line with logic 4, there is a need to cover positions. The risk lies in the large sales volume of servers and computers in the early stage, and there is a risk of overdraft demand. We must be wary of high performance before and low performance. Semiconductors account for all four rebound logics, but there is one risk, which is recommended.</p><p>4. In addition, we recommend that investors consider the hotel and entertainment sectors driven by the recovery of the epidemic, and the pharmaceutical CXO sector with large room for valuation recovery.</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>The first logic to look for a rebound is valuation repair. Specific to the execution level, we believe that the performance expectation has not been revised downward, but stocks whose stock prices have fallen will have room for valuation repair during the rebound, showing stronger flexibility. For performance expectations, we use the adjustment range of Bloomberg's consensus expected profit of listed companies in 2023 (if the company is not profitable, we use the revenue adjustment range instead); Stock Price Performance, we use the company's stock price movement year-to-date.</p><p>We did a simple +13% treatment for the stock price decline (13% is the average decline of our sample stocks) to offset the stock price pressure that liquidity tightening brings to be fair for all stocks. For the processed rise and fall, we call it \"relative rise and fall\". If the performance adjustment range of a company minus the relative increase or decrease of the stock price is greater than 0%, it means that the stock has room for valuation repair. That is, the following formula:</p><p>Valuation repair space = performance adjustment range-relative increase and decrease</p><p>One point to add is that in addition to the quantitative limitation of valuation repair space, valuation repair also has a qualitative requirement-it must fall in the early stage, not rise. A typical case that is not suitable for valuation repair logic is the energy sector. Since the beginning of the year, the performance increase of the energy sector has been greater than the increase in stock prices. However, the stock price is generally rising, not falling, so there is no way to talk about a \"rebound\".</p><p>From the data point of view, the sectors with large room for valuation repair are:</p><p>1.<b>Non-daily consumer goods (optional consumption)-automobile segment</b>There is a lot of room for valuation repair. But looking at it, the valuation restoration space of this sector is basically concentrated on new energy vehicle manufacturers represented by Tesla (TSLA US).</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology-Semiconductor Segment</b>, the performance in the first half of this year was generally raised, but the stock price fell. Subdivided companies with large room for valuation repair include automotive semiconductor manufacturers (such as ON Semiconductor ON US) and GPU manufacturers with cloud concepts (such as NVDA US and AMD US).</p><p>3.<b>IT-Software Industry</b>The differentiation of valuation repair space is relatively serious, but there are some stocks with advanced valuation repair space, generally SaaS companies.</p><p>4.<b>Healthcare-Life Sciences Tools & Services (CXO)</b>Generally, there is a certain room for valuation repair. Includes some companies whose performance has been revised upward, but whose stock prices have fallen sharply.</p><p>5.<b>Information Technology-Communication equipment</b>The change in performance expectations is relatively stable, but the decline is relatively large. It is expected to attract the attention of defensive-style investors in the next rally.</p><p>Those industries that have a lot of room for valuation repair, but we do not highly recommend:</p><p>1.<b>Finance-Commercial Banking</b>There is also a relatively large room for valuation repair, mainly due to the relatively large increase in bank performance in the early stage, which has a certain allocation value. However, banks have a large market value and are not our first choice when pursuing a rebound.</p><p>2.<b>energy</b>The valuation repair space readings are high. However, in the first half of the year, energy was on the rise, and there was no way to talk about a \"rebound\", so we do not recommend it.</p><p>3.<b>Industrial-Building Products</b>There is relatively large room for valuation repair, but their performance expectations generally show a slight downward trend, and there may be a lack of catalysts for rebound.</p><p>4.<b>Raw materials</b>The industry is facing pressure from high-frequency commodity price data peaking and falling back. At the same time, due to high operating leverage, slight changes in revenue may cause drastic fluctuations in profits. We recommend careful consideration.</p><p>5. We will not go into details about industries with too small sample size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcf7716e176d14fb293c49d27e6d3cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ec42def97349edfa95c07fdf1879cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c824c1fc42398bc9fc05b99707ff3b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bf5f271d8a8fa1ac2d7d52b0152d62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Anti-stagflation business model</b></p><p>The two key words of stagflation, one is \"stagflation\"-representing economic recession; One is \"inflation\"-representing rising costs. So, we need to find a business model that can fight the recession or transmit costs. We will give examples of several industries.</p><p><b>Software Industry SaaS Company</b></p><p>SaaS companies in the software industry are one of our most optimistic segments. Their revenue side adopts the customer prepaid subscription model, charging customers a fee in advance, determining the length of service time, and then recognizing this fee as revenue monthly/quarterly. On the cost side, the main cost of SaaS companies is marketing expenditure, and marketing expenditure is also paid to sales staff first, and then gradually confirmed with revenue. Therefore, SaaS companies will show strong performance rigidity and reflect their advantages in the early stages of the economic recession. Examples of such SaaS companies include cloud platform security system provider Datadog (DDOG US), cloud data platform company Zscaler (ZS US), and identification system company OKTA (OKTA US).</p><p>At the same time, we should be cautious about other models of software companies. Their revenue comes from IT expenditure in enterprise capital expenditure-an expenditure that is highly sensitive to the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Internet intermediary platform</b></p><p>In terms of fighting inflation, we believe that some Internet intermediary platforms will perform very well. Their revenue is usually based on GMV-the volume of transactions on the platform, multiplied by a fixed rate (take rate). With high inflation, their GMV will rise with rapidly increasing prices. An example of this is Airbnb (ABNB US), which provides travelers with accommodation intermediary services and charges based on the GBV (a variation of the GMV). Since the year-on-year growth rate of hotel projects in the CPI has been at a high level of about 20% recently, Airbnb's GBV, and then revenue, will also be driven upward by the higher growth rate of wine and travel prices. Some companies under the Internet Marketing and Direct Retail segment also fall into this category, such as Amazon (AMZN US) and eBay (EBAY US).</p><p><b>Semiconductor Manufacturing</b></p><p>In addition, we are optimistic about some manufacturing companies with strong bargaining power, such as the semiconductor manufacturing industry-they have high technical barriers and a relatively stable market structure. For leaders, there is some room to increase prices according to demand. This helps them transmit the pressure on the cost side downstream. In these companies, the price of consumer products, such as CPUs used in PCs, will be relatively inelastic. Companies with a higher proportion of corporate business will have a greater advantage, because corporate products are more price elastic than consumer products. More typical examples are automotive semiconductor manufacturers, such as ON US.</p><p><b>Logic 3: Growth stock logic</b></p><p>As we mentioned in our interim strategy report, growth is precious in times of economic downturn. We believe growth is the best defense. Therefore, we also recommend that investors give priority to industries and targets with higher expected growth rates. If these targets also have the previous two logics, it is the best choice.</p><p>At present, several industries with relatively high expected growth rates are as follows:</p><p>1.<b>Optional consumption</b>, the main growth point is<b>automobile</b>And<b>Hotel catering</b>INDUSTRY. Wherein,<b>automobile</b>There is a big differentiation within the sector. New energy car companies Tesla (TSLA US) and Lucid (LCID US) have higher growth expectations, while the growth expectations of traditional car companies are relatively mediocre.<b>Hotel catering</b>It mainly benefits from the fact that the hotel industry is recovering from the epidemic, with two driving factors: low base and concentrated demand outbreak, and the growth rate of catering (especially fast food) is relatively mediocre.</p><p>2.<b>Communication Services</b>In the plate,<b>recreation</b>The growth rate of the industry is relatively strong. The main high-growth companies are Walt Disney (DIS US) involved in travel concepts, concert hosting company Live Nation (LYV US) and game company Electronic Arts (EA US). The first two mainly benefit from the recovery of social activities, while the latter has a relatively stable and rapid growth in in-game value-added service revenue.</p><p>3.<b>Information Technology</b>Under-plate<b>Semiconductor</b>And<b>Software industry</b>。 Wherein,<b>Semiconductor</b>There are many high-growth companies in the industry. But we must be wary of companies with high growth expectations in 2022 and low growth expectations in 2023. Because the sales of computers and servers are relatively high in the near future, we should be wary of the risk of overdraft of early demand and the performance of related companies in 2022 will be high before and then low. We focus on selecting companies that analysts believe can still increase their performance in 2023, such as MRVL US, Enphase Energy (ENPH US), SolarEdge Technology (SEDG US), and Nvidia (NVDA US).<b>Software industry</b>, we believe that it should be further distinguished into traditional software companies and SaaS companies. The expected growth rate of SaaS companies is second only to the new energy vehicle sector, such as Datadog (DDOG US) and Zscaler (ZS US), which are our highly recommended industries.</p><p>4. For industries with high CAGR but too uneven growth rates or too small sample sizes in 2022 and 2023, we do not recommend sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e221f9b70bf80ea6a2d3d13e63ec9436\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea2617cdcee9c2759498d8c8d540948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f8b0b4d4d07b5ee9bdd21a35855718\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a6e719cf587946d7cf63bb33bae409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: Oversold logic</b></p><p>Since institutional investors usually have pre-determined position structure requirements (for example, the proportion of a certain sector's shareholding in the investment portfolio must be within a certain range), in the case of uneven rises and falls of various sectors in the market, the previous increase The sector with a larger increase will face a greater selling pressure, and the sector with a larger decline will benefit from investors' demand for covering positions.</p><p>We use the GICS plate as a reference standard. It is not difficult to see that the performance of the U.S. stock energy sector in the first half of 2022 is unique. This means that the proportion of stocks in the energy sector in the positions of institutional investors may have exceeded the predetermined upper limit of the position ratio. In this case, investors will have to reduce their holdings of shares in the energy sector. On the contrary,<b>Communication Services</b>、<b>Optional consumption</b>And<b>Information Technology</b>Sectors have experienced large year-to-date declines, so they are more likely to have broken through the lower limit of investors' positions in these sectors, in which case investors will have to increase their allocation to these sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e5300923df0191ae42145fa455991\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk: Be wary of high-frequency production/sales data</b></p><p>One point that needs to be emphasized is that we believe that the performance expectations of US stock companies are not without room for downward adjustment, but there is a short-term lack of catalysts. Therefore, when we use the information vacuum to trade, we must be alert to the emergence of high-frequency data, such as retail data-they cover food and beverage, automobiles, drugs, clothing, energy and other segments. Therefore, if we seize short-term opportunities in the US market with stagflation expectations, these areas need to be extra cautious. In terms of price data, we don't think there is need to worry too much, because as far as we have observed so far, the market is generally price-neutral in fundamental trading.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p><b>Brief introduction of short-term market conditions of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Since the high point in February 2021, the Hang Seng Index first experienced a plateau period from March to June, remaining volatile at 29,000 points. The decline began in July 2021 and bottomed out in March 2022. The Hang Seng Index is currently fluctuating at a low level of 20,000-23,000 points. From a macro perspective, China's economy bottomed out in the second quarter, and the macro aspect is expected to achieve a V-shaped reversal in the third quarter. From a micro perspective, the downward revision trend of company performance in the Hong Kong stock market has continued for a whole year from July 2021 to the present. With the advent of the performance period in the second quarter, we believe that the downward revision of performance is expected to be generally completed before the silent period, and the market's expectation of the company is expected to stabilize with the end of the performance period. For now, we believe that Hong Kong stocks have accumulated strong rebound potential. There are two possibilities in the second half of the year:</p><p>1. Hong Kong stocks rebounded in the third quarter. Then our suggestion is that investors can consider completing the layout and taking profits in the third quarter, and wait and see cautiously in the fourth quarter.</p><p>2. Hong Kong stocks maintained a low and volatile trend in the third quarter. Then we believe that Hong Kong stocks will achieve a U-shaped reversal in the fourth quarter of this year after macroeconomic risks are cleared.</p><p>No matter which situation happens, our advice to investors is to make a good layout in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock market rebound logic in the third quarter and main industries</b></p><p>We believe that there are the following four logics for the rebound of Hong Kong stocks. The first two are the main logics and the latter two are the supplementary logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>。 Like U.S. stocks, the previous decline was relatively large, but if the downward revision of performance expectations is not as good as the decline, there is room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Risk preference switching logic</b>。 We found that at the high level of the market, companies with high growth rates have greater valuation advantages; At the low level of the market, the valuation premium of high-growth companies decreases. Therefore, from an overall perspective, when the market rebounds from low to high, high-growth companies will benefit from the valuation increase brought about by the switch of market risk appetite. We call this a \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>3.<b>Share repurchase logic</b>。 As mentioned in the \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Repurchase Data Bottom-Hunting Strategy-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022) we released earlier, we believe that listed companies have sent signals at the macro level: They believe that their stock price is undervalued at 23,000 points on the Hang Seng Index. Despite the later military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and two black swan incidents in Shanghai and COVID-19 pandemic, we believe that the long-term value of most domestic companies will not change significantly. We can look for companies with large repurchase volume in this round of decline to invest in, because their prospects are more endorsed by the company's management. At the micro level, this is a secondary logic, and it is recommended to be used in conjunction with the above two main logics.</p><p>4.<b>AH share premium logic</b>。 At present, the Shanghai-Hong Kong AH premium index has been at the top position since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect, and has a certain correction potential. We believe that stocks with AH dual listings and historically high premiums are also worthy of investors' consideration. This is a secondary logic.</p><p>To sum up the above four rebound logics, our key recommendations are as follows:</p><p>1. Top recommendation<b>Healthcare</b>All sub-sections except chemicals are listed. Especially recommended<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>。 They have both valuation repair space and high growth expectations, while benefiting from the first two rebound logics.</p><p>2. Second recommendation<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. This sector has both valuation repair space and risk appetite switching logic, but we must be alert to the risk of some individual stocks' performance in 2022-2023 being high before and then low.</p><p>3. Additionally recommended<b>New energy vehicles and advertising in the media</b>Plate. They have high growth expectations, belong to emerging industries, and may benefit from the switch of risk appetite.</p><p>4. Finally, we recommend<b>Internet companies</b>, they are the core stocks that have attracted much attention in Hong Kong stocks, and are likely to become the standard bearer of the rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>5. The stocks we recommend cover most of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Technology Index. Therefore, we recommend at the index level<b>Hang Seng Technology</b>。</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>Similar to the valuation repair logic we use in U.S. stocks, if the reduction in performance expectations of a stock/industry is less than the decline in stock prices, then there is room for valuation repair in the rebound.</p><p>We uniformly adopted a +31% treatment for the rise and fall of stock prices (31% is the average decline of sample stocks in the second half of 2021 to date) to distinguish companies that have fallen larger than and smaller than the prevailing situation. When calculating the valuation repair space, for companies with stable profits, we take the change of profit expectations as the standard, and for companies that cannot make stable profits, we take the revenue expectations as the standard.</p><p>Based on the data, we make recommendations for the following industries in terms of valuation repair logic:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sections under. We highly recommend<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>, these companies generally experienced a sharp pullback/retracement in stock prices in the early stage, but their performance expectations have been raised. Furthermore,<b>Medical and Health Equipment and Services</b>The sector also has ample room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Two sub-plates under.<b>Semiconductor</b>There is great differentiation within the industry, and there is plenty of room for valuation repair of SMIC (981 HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK).<b>Technology hardware</b>Mainly Xiaomi and Lenovo, the sample size is small, so it is not recommended for the sector.</p><p>3. The sample size of dealers under optional consumption and building products under industry is too small to be repeated; The median early decline of shipping under industry is low, and there is no room for operation under the rebound logic, so it is not recommended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da8772831406f08d537f0be3654a440\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41003be5c098c8c43962a38b9021624\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae84e4ee3eb70a4f151573ae0496af7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56bc30ba442fac3d8b344365b7ad722c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Risk preference switching logic</b></p><p>We compared the expected 2-year CAGR of revenue and the PS at that time at two time points (revenue and PS are mainly used to cover unprofitable companies). These two time points are the end of February 2021-the high level of the Hang Seng Index, and current.</p><p>We find that when the market is at a high point, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks is amplified; When the market goes down, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks will be reduced. We believe this is mainly due to the switch of market risk appetite. From the perspective of graphics, the stock expectation-valuation regression line at different points in time seems to have been rotated, so we call it the \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>Since February 2021, the \"risk appetite pointer\" has rotated clockwise with the downward trend of the market, and the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks has been weakened; On the contrary, when there is a rebound opportunity in the market, we believe that these high-growth stocks will also benefit from the counterclockwise rotation of the \"risk appetite pointer\" and the rise of risk appetite at the valuation level. Combined with the expectation of improving fundamentals in the third quarter, high-growth stocks are expected to usher in Davis' double-click.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b8beaee31c9d313677b2799c73ee5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From an industry perspective, the following industries currently have high growth expectations:</p><p>1.<b>Cars under optional consumption</b>。<b>Automotive segment</b>Mainly benefiting from some companies participating in the new energy vehicle market, the growth rate of traditional automobile manufacturing companies is relatively low. So we advise investors to lock in<b>New energy vehicle</b>, not all car companies.</p><p>2.<b>Semiconductor sector under information technology</b>。 Except for individual stocks, they generally have relatively optimistic revenue CAGR expectations. However, we recommend that investors pay attention to the risk of high and low performance when selecting semiconductor companies.</p><p>3.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors under, especially<b>Biological drugs</b>。 Except for the pharmaceutical sector, the healthcare sector showed a gratifying growth trend. The growth rate of the pharmaceutical sub-sector is low, mainly due to the drag down of traditional chemical pharmaceutical companies.</p><p>4.<b>Media segment under Communication Services</b>, especially the performance growth rate of advertising companies is expected to be relatively high.</p><p>5. Hotel catering under optional consumption and airline sub-sectors under industry both have high growth expectations, but they are both traditional industries that benefit from the logic of epidemic recovery. Although the growth rate is expected to be high, it may not benefit from the rise in risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196f861399211f74f7dadbd6d51b238c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Logic 3: Share repurchase logic</b></p><p>In our earlier special report \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Bottom-hunting Strategy for Repurchase Data-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022), we conducted a study on the relationship between the company's repurchase behavior and the broader market and individual stocks research. We believe that the company's early repurchase behavior is also a bonus, which can be understood as the company's \"bottom-hunting\" of its own stocks.</p><p>When the first two more important rebound logics are in place, the company's repurchase behavior provides us with further protection. But this is a secondary logic, and we recommend that investors only use it as a useful addition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c367411a0e2146523849f12059ec165b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: AH share premium logic</b></p><p>Hong Kong Stock Connect was opened in November 2014. We observed the premium of AH shares since 2015 and found that the premium of AH shares has reached a high level at present, breaking through the +1 standard deviation level for a considerable distance. For companies listed in AH and AH, we believe that the high premium of AH shares will also help the H shares of related companies to achieve a stock price rebound.</p><p>However, we generally believe that this logic is not enough to support the companies listed in AH and AH alone to create excess returns. We suggest that investors choose the best among the companies listed in AH and AH on the basis of combining the first two main rebound logics. Relevant overlapping targets include biopharmaceuticals, CXO companies, some new energy vehicle industry chain companies, and a small number of semiconductor companies</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd85f18d2127e76f6975518f8fcc0ccc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/otESAs4BWujFnEZ2Xpx2AA\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/otESAs4BWujFnEZ2Xpx2AA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182404599","content_text":"第三季度或是美股和港股2022年重要的投资时间窗口美股方面，联储尚处于加息通道，且宏观层面有滞胀预期，但我们认为美股在第三季度会有一轮反弹。这主要得益于三季度的信息真空期：1）宏观层面，CPI同比难创新高，7-8月只是下降多少的问题，GDP是大盘滞后指标，对未来股价走势影响有限；2）微观层面，中报季没有企业业绩下修的催化剂；3）货币层面，9月FOMC会议尚有时日，且联储态度边际转鸽。盘面上，利空因素快速出清后，美股仍能逐日上行，反映出美股投资者多头力量充裕。港股方面，恒指去年7月下跌至今年3月，低位震荡格局已维持一个季度，反弹势能充足。基本面上，我们认为中国宏观经济已在二季度见底，个股业绩下修趋势有望在中报季结束。今年下半年或出现两种情况：1）三季度反弹，则我们建议投资者四季度谨慎；2）三季度低位震荡，四季度反弹。无论是哪种情况，我们都建议投资者在三季度布局，准备迎接反弹。美股：在估值修复空间与商业模式中择优我们为投资者提供4条反弹逻辑：1）盈利预测未下调，但股价超跌带来的估值修复逻辑；2）寻找抗滞胀的商业模式；3）利用高增长动能突破经济衰退；4）前期超跌带来的机构投资者强制补仓需求。我们推荐的行业有：1.首推软件业SaaS公司：估值修复空间充裕；商业模式在经济衰退初期刚性较强；属于增速较高的新兴行业；前期跌幅较大，投资者有补仓需求。符合4/4条反弹逻辑，首推。2.次推新能源车制造商：估值修复空间充裕；位于渗透率曲线甜点上，增速预期高；所属的可选消费板块前期跌幅较大，投资者有补仓需求。符合3/4条反弹逻辑，次推。3.半导体行业：有估值修复空间；成本传导能力好，抗通胀；增速高；前期超跌。符合4/4条反弹逻辑，但有业绩前高后低的风险，推荐。港股：最大化利用估值修复与风险偏好上行我们为投资者提供2条主要反弹逻辑：1）盈利预测下调幅度小/未下调，但跌幅较大带来的估值修复逻辑；2）风险偏好上升，成长股受益逻辑。以及2条次要逻辑：1）将公司前期回购行为视为管理层对基本面的背书；2）在AH股高溢价的公司中寻找套利空间。我们推荐的行业有：1.医疗保健下多个子板块，尤其是CXO和生物药。它们有充足的估值修复空间且预期增速较高，有望受益于风险偏好抬升。符合2/2条主要逻辑，首推。2.信息技术下的半导体板块。它们也有较优的估值修复空间和较高的业绩增速预期，但须警惕业绩前高后低的风险。符合2/2条主要逻辑，但有1项风险，次推。3.另推荐互联网公司以及恒生科技指数。风险提示：疫情发展的不确定性；企业业绩不及预期的风险；国际政治经济突发事件；美联储预期外的货币政策风格。美股：在估值修复空间与商业模式中择优美股第三季度交易逻辑整体展望我们认为三季度将会是今年投资美股的重要时间窗口。在第三季度，我们看到了三个信息真空期：1.宏观数据的真空期。从大宗商品等高频数据来判断，7-8月CPI难以超越6月份同比增9.1%的水平，无非是降幅大小的区别。GDP方面，二季度美国GDP环比折年-0.9%，但GDP总体是个滞后于大盘的指标，且宏观面衰退预期格局已定型（10年-2年美债利率倒挂已经稳定）总体不构成大盘走势影响。2.企业盈利表现的真空期。中报季来临至今，美股企业的半年度业绩总体符合预期。尽管经济衰退预期逐渐在宏观层面形成，微观层面上企业业绩下修尚缺乏催化剂，需进一步等待企业第三季度的表现。3.货币政策的真空期。7月加息75bp靴子落地，市场期望9月加息节奏放缓。与市场期望一致，美联储官员讲话和FOMC声明显著边际转鸽。这个倾向短期内看反转概率较小。同时距离下次靴子落地还有2个月的时间。从盘面来看，我们认识到美国市场多头力量仍然很足——利空因素在市场上快速出清，然后股市便可以回到逐日上行的状态。所以，我们认为今年第三季度是美股投资重要的时间窗口，投资者有望从反弹中获取收益。美股反弹的投资逻辑和首推行业在这个反弹策略中，我们运用到四套逻辑：1.估值修复逻辑：如果公司的盈利预测上调了（或者没下调），但是股价却下跌了，便在反弹行情中享受优先估值修复的机会；2.抗滞胀商业模式：在宏观层面有滞胀预期的情况下，商业模式能够天然抵御经济衰退或高通胀的公司将在反弹行情中受到投资者的青睐；3.成长股逻辑：以攻为守，以较高的增长动能突破经济衰退大环境的限制；4.超跌逻辑：前期跌得多，后期或将涨得多。对机构投资者来说，跌幅较大的板块可能已经突破预先设置的配置比例下限，他们将不得不对这些超跌板块补仓。我们对推荐的行业做一个汇总：1.首推软件业SaaS公司。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑二，预付费按时间计提收入，商业模式短期抗衰退能力强；符合逻辑三，成长潜力较高的新兴行业；符合逻辑四，前期跌幅大，投资者有补仓需求。软件业SaaS公司是四条反弹逻辑的交汇点，首推。2.其次推汽车中的新能源车。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑三，位于渗透率曲线甜点，增速预期高，有望穿越周期；符合逻辑四，前期跌幅较大，有补仓需求。四条逻辑占三条，推荐。3.半导体行业也是我们的重点推荐之一。主要的机会在于新能源领域和云计算领域，对公产品优先。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑二，竞争格局稳定，有较强的议价能力和成本传导能力；符合逻辑三，增速预期高；符合逻辑四，有补仓需求。风险在于前期服务器和电脑销售量大，有需求透支的风险，须警惕业绩前高后低。半导体占全部四条反弹逻辑，但有一项风险，推荐。4.此外，我们建议投资者考虑疫情恢复带动的酒店、娱乐板块，和估值修复空间大的医药CXO板块。逻辑一：估值修复逻辑寻找反弹的第一个逻辑是估值修复。具体到执行层面，我们认为，业绩预期没有下修，但是股价下跌的股票，在反弹中会有估值修复空间，表现出更强的弹性。业绩预期，我们采用上市企业2023年彭博一致预期利润的调整幅度（如果企业不盈利，我们改用营收调整幅度）；股价表现，我们使用年初至今的公司的股价变动。我们对股价跌幅做了简单的+13%的处理（13%是我们样本股票的平均跌幅），以冲抵流动性收紧带来的对所有股票公平的股价压力。对处理后的涨跌幅，我们称之为“相对涨跌幅”。如果一家公司的业绩调整幅度减去股价相对涨跌幅大于0%，说明这支股票有估值修复空间。即以下公式：估值修复空间 = 业绩调整幅度 - 相对涨跌幅要补充的一点是，除了估值修复空间这个量化限制外，估值修复还有一个定性要求——前期必须要下跌，而非上涨。典型不适合估值修复逻辑的案例是能源板块。年初至今，能源板块的业绩上调幅度大于股价涨幅。但是股价总体呈上涨，而非下跌，所以“反弹”无从谈起。从数据来看，估值修复空间较大的板块有：1.非日常生活消费品（可选消费）-汽车板块有较大的估值修复空间。但展开看，该板块的估值修复空间基本上都集中在以特斯拉（TSLA US）为代表的新能源车厂商身上。2.信息技术-半导体板块，今年上半年业绩总体上调，但股价下跌。估值修复空间较大的细分公司有汽车半导体厂商（如安森美ON US）和带有云端概念的GPU制造商（如英伟达NVDA US和超微半导体AMD US）。3.信息技术-软件业估值修复空间分化比较严重，但有一些估值修复空间较领先的个股，普遍是SaaS公司。4.医疗保健-生命科学工具与服务（CXO）普遍具有一定的估值修复空间。包含了一些业绩上修，但股价大幅下跌的公司。5.信息技术-通信设备的业绩预期变化比较平稳，但跌幅较大。有望在接下来的反弹引起防御风格投资者的注意。那些估值修复空间大，但我们不重点推荐的行业：1.金融-商业银行的估值修复空间也比较大，主要是由于前期银行业绩上调幅度比较大，有一定配置价值。但银行市值较大，追求反弹时，不是我们的首选。2.能源的估值修复空间读数较高。但上半年能源处于上涨态势，“反弹”无从谈起，我们不作推荐。3.工业-建筑产品的估值修复空间比较大，但它们的业绩预期普遍呈现小幅下行状态，可能会缺乏反弹的催化剂。4.原材料行业面临高频商品价格数据见顶回落压力。同时，由于经营杠杆较高，营收的细微变化可能引起利润的剧烈波动。我们建议谨慎考虑。5.样本量过小的行业我们不作赘述。逻辑二：抗滞胀的商业模式滞胀的两个关键词，一个是“滞”——代表经济衰退；一个是“胀”——代表成本上升。所以，我们需要找到能够对抗衰退，或能够传导成本的商业模式。我们将对几个行业做举例说明。软件业SaaS公司软件业中的SaaS公司是我们最为看好的细分板块之一。它们收入端采用客户预付费的订阅模式，预先向客户收取一笔费用，确定服务时间长度，然后逐月/逐季将这笔费用确认为收入。成本端，SaaS公司的主要成本是营销支出，而营销支出也是先支付给销售人员，然后随营收逐步确认的。所以，SaaS公司将在经济衰退初期展现出强大的业绩刚性，体现优势。这类SaaS公司的案例包括，云平台安全系统提供商Datadog（DDOG US），云数据平台公司Zscaler（ZS US），身份识别系统公司OKTA（OKTA US）。同时，我们要谨慎对待其他模式的软件公司。它们的收入来自企业资本开支中的IT支出——这是对经济周期高度敏感的一项开支。互联网中介平台在对抗通胀方面，我们认为一些互联网中介平台将会表现地十分出众。他们的收入通常是基于GMV——平台上的交易量，乘以一个固定的费率（take rate）。在通胀高企的情况下，他们的GMV会随着快速增加的物价上升。其中的一个例子是爱彼迎（ABNB US），它为旅行者提供住宿中介服务，基于GBV（GMV的一个变形）收费。由于CPI中的旅馆项目同比增速近期一直处于20%左右的高位，爱彼迎的GBV，继而营收也会被较高的酒旅价格增速驱动上行。网络营销与直销零售板块下的一些公司也属于这个范畴，如亚马逊（AMZN US）和eBay公司（EBAY US）。半导体制造业另外，我们看好一些议价能力强的制造业公司，如半导体制造业——它们的技术壁垒高，市场格局比较稳定，对于龙头来说，有一定根据需求加价的空间。这有助于它们把成本端的压力传导至下游。在这些公司中，消费级产品，如PC电脑使用的CPU的价格将比较缺乏弹性。对公业务占比较高的公司优势将会更大，因为对公产品比消费级产品的价格弹性更足，比较典型的便是汽车半导体制造商，如安森美（ON US）。逻辑三：成长股逻辑正如我们在中期策略报告中提到，经济不景气时，成长弥足珍贵。我们相信增长是最好的防御。所以，我们也建议投资者优先考虑预期增速较高的行业和标的。如果这些标的也带有前面的两条逻辑，那便是上上之选。目前来看，预期增速比较高的几个行业如下：1.可选消费，主要的增长点是汽车和酒店餐饮行业。其中，汽车板块内部有较大分化，新能源车企特斯拉（TSLA US）和Lucid（LCID US）有较高的增速预期，传统车企的增速预期比较平庸。酒店餐饮则主要受益于酒店行业正在从疫情中恢复，具有低基数和需求集中爆发两个驱动因素，餐饮（尤其快餐）的增速则比较平庸。2.通信服务板块中，娱乐行业增速比较强劲。主要高增速的公司是涉及旅游概念的华特迪士尼（DIS US）、音乐会承办公司Live Nation（LYV US）和游戏公司电子艺界（EA US）。前两者主要受益于社会活动的恢复，后者有较为稳定且快速的游戏内增值服务收入增长。3.信息技术板块下的半导体和软件业。其中，半导体行业下有许多高增速公司。但是我们要警惕那些2022年增速预期高，2023年预期低的公司。因为电脑和服务器在近期的销量较高，我们应警惕前期需求透支，相关公司2022年业绩前高后低的风险。我们重点选择分析师认为2023年业绩仍能高增的公司，如美满电子（MRVL US）、Enphase能源（ENPH US）、SolarEdge科技（SEDG US）、英伟达（NVDA US）。软件业，我们认为应进一步区分为传统软件公司和SaaS公司。SaaS公司预期增速仅次于新能源车板块，如Datadog（DDOG US）和Zscaler（ZS US），是我们重点推荐的行业。4.CAGR高但是2022和2023年增速过于不均衡或样本量太小的行业，我们不作板块推荐。逻辑四：超跌逻辑由于机构投资者通常都有事先确定好的持仓结构要求（如某一板块的持股占投资组合的比例必须处于某个区间内），在市场各板块涨跌幅不均的情况下，前期涨幅较大的板块将面临更大的抛压，跌幅较大的板块将受益于投资者的补仓需求。我们以GICS板块作为参考标准。不难看出，美股能源板块在2022年上半年的表现一枝独秀。这意味着，能源板块的股票在机构投资者持仓中的占比可能已经超过了事先给定的持仓比例上限。在这种情况下，投资者将不得不减持能源板块的股票。相反，通信服务、可选消费和信息技术板块年初至今的跌幅较大，所以它们更有可能已经向下突破了投资者在这些板块的持仓比例下限，在这种情况下，投资者将不得不增配这些板块。风险：警惕高频产量/销量数据需要强调的一点是，我们认为美股公司的业绩预期并非没有下调空间，只是短期缺乏催化剂。所以，当我们利用信息真空交易时，一定要警惕高频数据的出现，如零售数据——它们涵盖了食饮、汽车、药物、服饰、能源等细分。所以，如果我们怀着滞胀预期在美国市场抓短期机会，这些领域需要格外慎重。价格数据方面，我们认为无需过于担忧，因为就我们目前为止的观察，市场在基本面交易上总体呈价格中性。港股：最大化利用估值修复与风险偏好上行港股短期市场状态简述自2021年2月的高点以来，恒生指数首先经历了3-6月份的平台期，在29000点的位置维持震荡。2021年7月开始下跌，到2022年3月触底。恒生指数目前在20000-23000点低位震荡。从宏观角度看，中国经济在第二季度触底，第三季度宏观面将有望实现V型反转。从微观的角度看，港股市场公司业绩的下修趋势已经从2021年7月持续一整年至今。随着二季度业绩期的来临，我们认为业绩下修有望在静默期前大体完成，市场对公司的预期有望随着业绩期的结束企稳。就目前来看，我们认为港股已经积累了较强的反弹势能。下半年将面临两种可能性：1.港股在三季度有所反弹。那么我们的建议则是投资者可以考虑在三季度完成布局和止盈的动作，在第四季度谨慎观望。2.港股在三季度维持低位震荡走势。那么我们认为港股将在宏观经济风险出清后，在今年四季度实现U型反转。无论哪一种情况发生，我们对投资者的建议均是在三季度做好布局。港股三季度反弹逻辑与主推行业我们认为港股的反弹逻辑有以下四个，前两个是主要逻辑，后两个是补充逻辑：1.估值修复逻辑。与美股相同，前期跌幅比较大，但是业绩预期下修幅度不及跌幅的，便存在估值修复的空间。2.风险偏好切换逻辑。我们发现，在大盘的高位，高增速的公司具有更大的估值优势；在大盘低位，高增速公司的估值溢价则减少。因此，从全局的角度看，在市场从低位向高位反弹时，高增速公司将会受益于市场风险偏好切换带来的估值提升。我们将此称为“风险偏好指针”。3.股份回购逻辑。正如我们早前发布的《港股股份回购专题研究-回购数据抄底策略——利用集体的智慧》（2022年4月27日）提到，我们认为上市企业在宏观层面已经发出了信号：它们认为自身股价在恒生指数23000点的位置已经被低估。尽管后期又发生了俄乌军事冲突和上海新冠疫情两起黑天鹅事件，但我们相信大多数国内企业的长期价值不会有较大幅度的改变。我们可以去寻找在本轮下跌中回购量较大的公司进行投资，因为它们的前景更多地受到了公司管理层的背书。在微观层面，这是一条次要逻辑，建议与上面两条主要逻辑结合使用。4.AH股溢价逻辑。目前，沪港AH溢价指数已经处于港股通开通以来的顶部位置，有一定的回调势能。我们认为AH两地上市，同时溢价处于历史高位的股票也值得投资者考虑。这是一条次要逻辑。综上四条反弹逻辑，我们的重点推荐如下：1.首要推荐医疗保健下除化学药以外的各个子板块。尤其重点推荐CXO和生物药板块。它们兼具估值修复空间和高增长预期，同时受益于前两条反弹逻辑。2.其次推荐信息技术下的半导体板块。这个板块兼具估值修复空间与风险偏好切换逻辑，唯独要警惕部分个股在2022-2023年业绩前高后低的风险。3.此外推荐新能源车和媒体中的广告板块。它们具备较高的增速预期，属于新兴行业，或将受益于风险偏好切换。4.最后，我们推荐互联网公司，它们是港股中备受关注的核心个股，很可能成为港股反弹的旗手。5.我们推荐的个股涵盖了恒生科技指数的大部分成分股。因此，我们在指数层面推荐恒生科技。逻辑一：估值修复逻辑与我们在美股使用的估值修复逻辑相似，如果一支股票/一个行业的业绩预期下调幅度小于股价下跌幅度，那么在反弹中便存在估值修复的空间。我们对股价的涨跌幅统一采用了+31%（31%是2021年下半年至今样本股票的平均跌幅）的处理，以区分跌幅大于和小于普遍情况的公司。计算估值修复空间时，对于有稳定盈利的公司，我们以利润预期变动为准，对于不能稳定盈利的公司，我们以营收预期为准。根据数据，我们就估值修复逻辑对以下行业做出推荐：1.医疗保健下的多个子板块。我们重点推荐CXO和生物药板块，这些公司在前期普遍经历了股价的大幅回撤，但是业绩预期方面却有所上调。此外，医药保健设备与服务板块也有充裕的估值修复空间。2.信息技术下的两个子板块。半导体行业内分化较大，中芯国际（981 HK）与华虹半导体（1347 HK）的估值修复空间比较充裕。科技硬件主要是小米和联想，样本量小，不作板块推荐。3.可选消费下的经销商、工业下的建筑产品样本量太小，不作赘述；工业下的海运前期跌幅中位数偏低，反弹逻辑下没有操作空间，不作推荐。逻辑二：风险偏好切换逻辑我们对比了两个时间点的预期营收2年CAGR和当时的PS（使用营收和PS主要是为了涵盖未盈利的公司），这两个时间点分别为2021年2月末——恒生指数的高位，和当前。我们发现，当市场位于高点时，高增长股票的估值优势会被放大；而当市场下行时，高增长股票的估值优势会被缩小。我们认为这主要是市场风险偏好切换所致。从图像的角度来看，不同时间点的股票预期-估值回归线看起来经过了旋转，故我们称之为“风险偏好指针”。2021年2月至今，“风险偏好指针”随着大盘的下行顺时针旋转，高增长个股的估值优势被削弱；反之，当大盘出现反弹机会时，我们认为这些高增长个股也将受益于“风险偏好指针”的逆时针旋转，在估值层面受益于风险偏好的上升。结合三季度基本面改善的预期，高增长个股则有望迎来戴维斯双击。从行业的角度来看，以下行业目前具有较高的增速预期：1.可选消费下的汽车。汽车板块主要受益于部分参与了新能源车市场的企业，传统汽车制造企业的增速则比较低。所以我们建议投资者锁定新能源车，而非所有车企。2.信息技术下的半导体板块。除个别个股外，普遍具有较为乐观的营收CAGR预期。但是，我们建议投资者挑选半导体公司时要注意业绩前高后低的风险。3.医疗保健下的多个子板块，尤其是生物药。除了制药板块外，医疗保健板块均呈现出喜人的增势。制药子板块增速较低，主要是受到了传统化学药企业的拖累。4.通信服务下的媒体板块，尤其是广告公司的业绩增速预期较高。5.可选消费下的酒店餐饮和工业下的航空公司子板块均有较高的增速预期，但它们都是受益于疫情修复逻辑的传统行业。虽然增速预期较高，但未必会受益于风险偏好的上升。逻辑三：股份回购逻辑我们在早先发布的专题报告《港股股份回购专题研究-回购数据抄底策略——利用集体的智慧》（2022年4月27日）中对公司的回购行为与大盘和个股的关系进行了研究。我们认为，公司前期的回购行为也是一个加分项，可以理解为公司对自身股票进行的“抄底”。在前两项更加重要的反弹逻辑具备的情况下，公司的回购行为为我们提供了进一步保障。但这是一条次要逻辑，我们建议投资者仅将其作为一个有益补充。逻辑四：AH股溢价逻辑港股通于2014年11月开通，我们观察2015年以来的AH股溢价情况，发现AH股溢价目前已经触及高位，向上突破了+1标准差水平相当一段距离。对于AH两地上市的公司来说，我们认为AH股溢价处于高位也有助于相关公司的H股实现股价反弹。但是，我们总体上认为这个逻辑不足以单独支撑AH两地上市公司创造超额收益，我们建议投资者在结合前两条主要反弹逻辑的基础上在AH两地上市的公司中优中择优。有相关重叠的标的包括生物药、CXO公司，部分新能源汽车产业链公司，以及少量半导体公司风险提示疫情发展的不确定性；企业业绩不及预期的风险；国际政治经济突发事件；美联储预期外的货币政策风格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSCCI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079576515,"gmtCreate":1657233769237,"gmtModify":1676535972840,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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08:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The Fed's most hawkish remarks were released! The global food crisis is worsening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153597517","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美股周五收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.13%，纳指涨1.43%；②美联储最鹰派言论出炉！对恢复价格稳定的承诺是“无条件的”；③粮食危机雪上加霜，俄罗斯化肥生产商出口量削减近三成；④全球央行掀起80年","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow falling 0.13% and the Nasdaq rising 1.43%; ② The most hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve are released! The commitment to restoring price stability is \"unconditional\"; ③ The food crisis has worsened, and the export volume of Russian fertilizer producers has been reduced by nearly 30%; ④ Central banks around the world set off the most hawkish action since 1980s, and the stock market headed for the biggest weekly decline in two years. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow down 0.13% and the Nasdaq up 1.43%.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow down 0.13%, the Nasdaq up 1.43%, and the S&P 500 up 0.22%. The S&P 500 recorded its worst weekly performance since March 2020.</p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks rose across the board.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.09%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 2.47%, and Meta rose 1.78%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rebounded at the close on Friday, while new energy vehicle stocks rose</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>The company rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">Futu Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">Lufax</a>Holding,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Fun shop</a>, EHang rose more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">Yunmi Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">Lychee</a>Up nearly 4%.</p><p>New energy vehicle stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>(20.77, 1.59, 8.29%) automobiles rose more than 8%, and ideal (33.15, 1.35, 4.25%) automobiles rose more than 4%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed mixed, and the German DAX index rose 0.65%</p><p>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.65% and France's CAC40 index down 0.06%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.66%.</p><p>4. New York crude oil futures fell 6.8% on Friday</p><p>New York crude oil futures prices closed down nearly 7% on Friday. Crude oil futures prices fell sharply amid concerns that rate hike, central banks of several major countries, could slow global economic growth and cut energy demand. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.02, or 6.82%, to settle at $109.56 a barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures prices closed down 0.5% on Friday and fell 1.9% this week.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, bringing their cumulative decline this week to about 1.9%. August gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.5% to close at $1,840.60 an ounce. Gold futures prices fell about 1.9% this week.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The most hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve are released! Commitment to restoring price stability is'unconditional '</p><p>On Friday, June 17, before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a U.S. Congressional hearing next week, the Federal Reserve released its semi-annual monetary policy report called \"the most hawkish language to fight inflation yet.\" Some analysts pointed out that the wording \"unconditional\" is the most hawkish term used by the Federal Reserve so far. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend a congressional hearing next Wednesday and Thursday to provide a blueprint for the latest central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report for his speech, which may mean that the market will \"continue to welcome Powell's hawkish release next week.\"</p><p>2. Powell: The Fed is \"strongly focused\" on bringing inflation back to 2%</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his determination to curb the hottest inflation in 40 years and said the central bank is committed to encouraging the world to hold and trade in dollars. \"My colleagues and I are strongly focused on getting inflation back to our 2% target,\" he said in a welcome message prepared for Friday's Federal Reserve meeting on the international role of the dollar. \"The Federal Reserve's strong commitment to our price stability mission has increased broad confidence in the dollar as a store of value.\"</p><p>3. U.S. inflation has exploded, and the hawk and dove camp within the Federal Reserve is also in chaos</p><p>Inflation in the United States has exploded, and the hawk and dove camp within the Federal Reserve is also in chaos. George, the super hawkish Kansas City Fed President, explained why she voted against it as a rare dove at the June meeting. On the same day, dovish official Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expressed his support for continuing the 75 basis point rate hike in July.</p><p>4. The food crisis is worse: Russian fertilizer manufacturers have cut exports by nearly 30%</p><p>Western sanctions against Russia are making the global food crisis, which has been hit by fertilizer prices, worse. On Friday, June 17 local time, Dmitry Konyaev, CEO of Uralchem, the parent company of Russian potash fertilizer producer Uralkali, told Russian media that Uralchem and Uralkali have cut fertilizer exports by 25-30% this year.</p><p>5. The Bank of England shows its \"fangs\", and the chief economist sends a 50 basis point signal on rate hike</p><p>A more aggressive shift in the stance of the Bank of England and the Treasury may come, with Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill suggesting that policymakers may take an unprecedented 50 basis point rate hike action if there is further evidence that high inflation is pushing up wages or prices. Wall Street big banks such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Everyone is betting that the Bank of England will conduct a 50-basis-point rate hike in August and September.</p><p>6. The Bank of Japan took action, and the arbitrage trade was caught off guard</p><p>While the Bank of Japan didn't \"capitulate\" as many traders expected on Friday, some parts of the Japanese bond market are crumbling as the Bank of Japan continues its efforts to rein in its policy objectives and repel those who short it.</p><p>A small adjustment to the bond-buying program by the Bank of Japan this week undermined an arbitrage strategy popular among overseas investors, known as basis trading. It has exacerbated the supply shortage of government bonds, increasing pressure on Japan's domestic financial institutions, leading them to turn to the Bank of Japan for help to ease the pressure.</p><p>7. Global central banks launched the most hawkish action since the 1980s, and the stock market headed for its largest weekly decline in two years</p><p>Three major central banks around the world raised borrowing costs this week, and they are also risking triggering a recession and financial market turmoil as they rush to cope with previously unforeseen surges in inflation. Global stock markets have fallen sharply this week, with the FTSE Global Index, which covers developed and emerging market stocks, down 5.5% this week, which would be its worst performance since the pandemic-triggered turmoil in March 2020.</p><p>8. The United States and Russia \"attacked from left to right\", European natural gas soared by 60% in a week, and the \"gas shortage\" escalated again!</p><p>European natural gas prices recorded their largest weekly increase since the Russia-Ukraine conflict due to the \"enemy\" in both sides. On Thursday morning local time, the European benchmark Dutch front-month TTF natural gas futures price once rose by 24%, and today it rose again by nearly 10%, bringing the one-week increase to 60%.</p><p>9. Multiple polls show that Biden's approval rate hits a new low</p><p>Recently, multiple U.S. media polls have shown that as inflation continues to rise and concerns about economic recession, U.S. President Biden's approval rating has hit a new low.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>Polls conducted by News Associated Yugov Research showed that Biden's approval rating has been on a downward trend for most of the past year.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Peskov: The possibility of resuming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is not ruled out</p><p>On the 17th local time, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said in an interview with RIA Novosti that the possibility of resuming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine was not ruled out, but Ukraine remained stagnant. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia has been committed to developing relations with Ukraine.</p><p>2. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense disclosed military equipment battle damage data for the first time</p><p>Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Karpenko disclosed in an interview with foreign media on the 17th that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Ukrainian army has lost about 50% of its heavy equipment, including about 1,300 armored vehicles, 400 tanks and 700 artillery pieces. He also said that international military support for Ukraine can meet 10% to 15% of the needs of the Ukrainian army.</p><p>3. The European Commission recommends granting Ukraine EU candidate status</p><p>On the 16th local time, Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Nebenzia said that Ukraine's accession to the EU is not in Russia's interest, and EU countries are not the objects with which Russia will develop relations. On the same day, Chizhov, Russian Permanent Representative to the European Union, said at the 25th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the relationship between Russia and the European Union is at its lowest point since the establishment of the latter.</p><p>4. Russia expects to export 39.5 million tons of wheat next year but only trade with friendly countries</p><p>Russia's deputy prime minister said on Thursday that more wheat will be exported in the next agricultural year, but at the same time Russia's agriculture minister warned that it will only trade with friendly countries. Russia is also preparing to switch to rubles to pay for grain trade.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244814435\" target=\"_blank\">The last \"Buffett Charity Lunch\" auction is coming to an end, and bidding has soared to US $12 million</a></p><p>The 2022 \"Buffett Charity Lunch\" will be held at 7:30 on June 13, Beijing time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>The platform started auction, with a starting price of USD 25,000. The auction will last for a week and end at 10:30 on June 18th, Beijing time. The first auction of Buffett's charity lunch began in 2000, and eBay has been used as the bidding platform since 2003. So far, it has raised 34 million dollars in donations, with four Chinese winning bidders in history. The winning bidder can bring up to seven people to dinner with Buffett in new york and ask him questions.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244152144\" target=\"_blank\">Another commodity giant has made a profit: Glencore's first-half trading business profit has hit its full-year target</a></p><p>On Friday, June 17, Switzerland-based commodity trader and mining giant Glencore issued a statement saying that it expects the EBIT of its commodity trading business to exceed US $3.2 billion in the first half of this year, which is exactly in line with the company's full-year profit guidance. The upper limit of the range ($2.2 billion to $3.2 billion).</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244143128\" target=\"_blank\">Several SpaceX employees fired for writing open letter criticizing Musk</a></p><p>According to an internal memo, SpaceX has fired \"several employees\" who earlier wrote an open letter criticizing CEO Elon Musk's actions; The extraordinary incident underscores the growing divide around Musk's controversial comments.</p><p>The open letter called Musk's behavior and his tweets \"often distracting and embarrassing us, especially in recent weeks.\"</p><p>4. Cross-border restructuring of European banking industry restarted?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">BNP Paribas</a>Interest in acquiring state-owned ABN AMRO</p><p>On Friday, June 17th, some media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that BNP Paribas had expressed its interest in acquiring ABN Amro. ABN Amro is one of the largest multinational financial institutions in the Netherlands, with branches around the world, and ABN Amro ranks among the top European banks in terms of size and economic strength. ABN Amro has been under government control since the financial crisis. Some media said that BNP Paribas recently contacted the Dutch government to discuss the acquisition interest. What attracts BNP Paribas is ABN Amro's retail and corporate business, and the opportunity to expand in Northern Europe.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244214234\" target=\"_blank\">First time! FDA approves Moderna, Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for infants and young children over 6 months of age</a></p><p>On Friday, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approved Pfizer and Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for use in infants and toddlers as young as 6 months. The FDA's decision comes after its independent committee of vaccine experts weighed the vaccine's safety and effectiveness during a full-day meeting open to the public on Wednesday and unanimously voted to recommend vaccinations for infants and young children.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244711784\" target=\"_blank\">Rivian intends to build large wind turbines at factory</a></p><p>Electric vehicle startup Rivian has announced that it will build large wind turbines at Normal's manufacturing campus. The turbine is designed to have a capacity of at least 2.8 MW and can generate nearly 10 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year. The planned site for the large wind turbine is within the vehicle test track on the east side of Rivian's manufacturing campus. The area near Normal is known for its strong winds and already has a significant wind turbine.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244112558\" target=\"_blank\">Liulishuo finalizes private deal with $6.8 million valuation</a></p><p>Liulishuo said on Friday that it has signed a definitive merger agreement with Cayman Islands-based LLP-Prilingo to go private. In this transaction, Liulishuo's equity valuation is US $6.8 million, and each outstanding ADS will be revoked in exchange for US $1.90 in cash. This represents a 15.8% premium to the weighted average price of Liulishuo ADS in the 10 trading days prior to receipt of the revised \"go private\" proposal dated April 28, 2022.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244613192\" target=\"_blank\">Cannot escape the \"inflation robbery\" DuPont and other chemical stocks are bearish by Jefferies</a></p><p>Jefferies will DuPont,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMN\">Eastman Chemical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CE\">Celanese</a>, Taihuashi and International Fragrance Company were downgraded to \"hold\" from \"buy\" because inflation will endanger the return on investment of these chemical companies.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The Fed's most hawkish remarks were released! The global food crisis is worsening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The Fed's most hawkish remarks were released! The global food crisis is worsening\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-18 08:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow falling 0.13% and the Nasdaq rising 1.43%; ② The most hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve are released! The commitment to restoring price stability is \"unconditional\"; ③ The food crisis has worsened, and the export volume of Russian fertilizer producers has been reduced by nearly 30%; ④ Central banks around the world set off the most hawkish action since 1980s, and the stock market headed for the biggest weekly decline in two years. Overseas Market</p><p>1. U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow down 0.13% and the Nasdaq up 1.43%.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow down 0.13%, the Nasdaq up 1.43%, and the S&P 500 up 0.22%. The S&P 500 recorded its worst weekly performance since March 2020.</p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks rose across the board.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Up 1.09%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Up 1.15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>It rose 2.47%, and Meta rose 1.78%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rebounded at the close on Friday, while new energy vehicle stocks rose</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>The company rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">Futu Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">Lufax</a>Holding,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Fun shop</a>, EHang rose more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIOT\">Yunmi Technology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">Lychee</a>Up nearly 4%.</p><p>New energy vehicle stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Rose more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>(20.77, 1.59, 8.29%) automobiles rose more than 8%, and ideal (33.15, 1.35, 4.25%) automobiles rose more than 4%.</p><p>3. European stocks closed mixed, and the German DAX index rose 0.65%</p><p>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.65% and France's CAC40 index down 0.06%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.66%.</p><p>4. New York crude oil futures fell 6.8% on Friday</p><p>New York crude oil futures prices closed down nearly 7% on Friday. Crude oil futures prices fell sharply amid concerns that rate hike, central banks of several major countries, could slow global economic growth and cut energy demand. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.02, or 6.82%, to settle at $109.56 a barrel.</p><p>5. New York gold futures prices closed down 0.5% on Friday and fell 1.9% this week.</p><p>New York gold futures prices closed lower on Friday, bringing their cumulative decline this week to about 1.9%. August gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.5% to close at $1,840.60 an ounce. Gold futures prices fell about 1.9% this week.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The most hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve are released! Commitment to restoring price stability is'unconditional '</p><p>On Friday, June 17, before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a U.S. Congressional hearing next week, the Federal Reserve released its semi-annual monetary policy report called \"the most hawkish language to fight inflation yet.\" Some analysts pointed out that the wording \"unconditional\" is the most hawkish term used by the Federal Reserve so far. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend a congressional hearing next Wednesday and Thursday to provide a blueprint for the latest central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report for his speech, which may mean that the market will \"continue to welcome Powell's hawkish release next week.\"</p><p>2. Powell: The Fed is \"strongly focused\" on bringing inflation back to 2%</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his determination to curb the hottest inflation in 40 years and said the central bank is committed to encouraging the world to hold and trade in dollars. \"My colleagues and I are strongly focused on getting inflation back to our 2% target,\" he said in a welcome message prepared for Friday's Federal Reserve meeting on the international role of the dollar. \"The Federal Reserve's strong commitment to our price stability mission has increased broad confidence in the dollar as a store of value.\"</p><p>3. U.S. inflation has exploded, and the hawk and dove camp within the Federal Reserve is also in chaos</p><p>Inflation in the United States has exploded, and the hawk and dove camp within the Federal Reserve is also in chaos. George, the super hawkish Kansas City Fed President, explained why she voted against it as a rare dove at the June meeting. On the same day, dovish official Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expressed his support for continuing the 75 basis point rate hike in July.</p><p>4. The food crisis is worse: Russian fertilizer manufacturers have cut exports by nearly 30%</p><p>Western sanctions against Russia are making the global food crisis, which has been hit by fertilizer prices, worse. On Friday, June 17 local time, Dmitry Konyaev, CEO of Uralchem, the parent company of Russian potash fertilizer producer Uralkali, told Russian media that Uralchem and Uralkali have cut fertilizer exports by 25-30% this year.</p><p>5. The Bank of England shows its \"fangs\", and the chief economist sends a 50 basis point signal on rate hike</p><p>A more aggressive shift in the stance of the Bank of England and the Treasury may come, with Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill suggesting that policymakers may take an unprecedented 50 basis point rate hike action if there is further evidence that high inflation is pushing up wages or prices. Wall Street big banks such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Everyone is betting that the Bank of England will conduct a 50-basis-point rate hike in August and September.</p><p>6. The Bank of Japan took action, and the arbitrage trade was caught off guard</p><p>While the Bank of Japan didn't \"capitulate\" as many traders expected on Friday, some parts of the Japanese bond market are crumbling as the Bank of Japan continues its efforts to rein in its policy objectives and repel those who short it.</p><p>A small adjustment to the bond-buying program by the Bank of Japan this week undermined an arbitrage strategy popular among overseas investors, known as basis trading. It has exacerbated the supply shortage of government bonds, increasing pressure on Japan's domestic financial institutions, leading them to turn to the Bank of Japan for help to ease the pressure.</p><p>7. Global central banks launched the most hawkish action since the 1980s, and the stock market headed for its largest weekly decline in two years</p><p>Three major central banks around the world raised borrowing costs this week, and they are also risking triggering a recession and financial market turmoil as they rush to cope with previously unforeseen surges in inflation. Global stock markets have fallen sharply this week, with the FTSE Global Index, which covers developed and emerging market stocks, down 5.5% this week, which would be its worst performance since the pandemic-triggered turmoil in March 2020.</p><p>8. The United States and Russia \"attacked from left to right\", European natural gas soared by 60% in a week, and the \"gas shortage\" escalated again!</p><p>European natural gas prices recorded their largest weekly increase since the Russia-Ukraine conflict due to the \"enemy\" in both sides. On Thursday morning local time, the European benchmark Dutch front-month TTF natural gas futures price once rose by 24%, and today it rose again by nearly 10%, bringing the one-week increase to 60%.</p><p>9. Multiple polls show that Biden's approval rate hits a new low</p><p>Recently, multiple U.S. media polls have shown that as inflation continues to rise and concerns about economic recession, U.S. President Biden's approval rating has hit a new low.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo!</a>Polls conducted by News Associated Yugov Research showed that Biden's approval rating has been on a downward trend for most of the past year.</p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. Peskov: The possibility of resuming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is not ruled out</p><p>On the 17th local time, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said in an interview with RIA Novosti that the possibility of resuming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine was not ruled out, but Ukraine remained stagnant. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia has been committed to developing relations with Ukraine.</p><p>2. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense disclosed military equipment battle damage data for the first time</p><p>Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Karpenko disclosed in an interview with foreign media on the 17th that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Ukrainian army has lost about 50% of its heavy equipment, including about 1,300 armored vehicles, 400 tanks and 700 artillery pieces. He also said that international military support for Ukraine can meet 10% to 15% of the needs of the Ukrainian army.</p><p>3. The European Commission recommends granting Ukraine EU candidate status</p><p>On the 16th local time, Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Nebenzia said that Ukraine's accession to the EU is not in Russia's interest, and EU countries are not the objects with which Russia will develop relations. On the same day, Chizhov, Russian Permanent Representative to the European Union, said at the 25th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the relationship between Russia and the European Union is at its lowest point since the establishment of the latter.</p><p>4. Russia expects to export 39.5 million tons of wheat next year but only trade with friendly countries</p><p>Russia's deputy prime minister said on Thursday that more wheat will be exported in the next agricultural year, but at the same time Russia's agriculture minister warned that it will only trade with friendly countries. Russia is also preparing to switch to rubles to pay for grain trade.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244814435\" target=\"_blank\">The last \"Buffett Charity Lunch\" auction is coming to an end, and bidding has soared to US $12 million</a></p><p>The 2022 \"Buffett Charity Lunch\" will be held at 7:30 on June 13, Beijing time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>The platform started auction, with a starting price of USD 25,000. The auction will last for a week and end at 10:30 on June 18th, Beijing time. The first auction of Buffett's charity lunch began in 2000, and eBay has been used as the bidding platform since 2003. So far, it has raised 34 million dollars in donations, with four Chinese winning bidders in history. The winning bidder can bring up to seven people to dinner with Buffett in new york and ask him questions.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244152144\" target=\"_blank\">Another commodity giant has made a profit: Glencore's first-half trading business profit has hit its full-year target</a></p><p>On Friday, June 17, Switzerland-based commodity trader and mining giant Glencore issued a statement saying that it expects the EBIT of its commodity trading business to exceed US $3.2 billion in the first half of this year, which is exactly in line with the company's full-year profit guidance. The upper limit of the range ($2.2 billion to $3.2 billion).</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244143128\" target=\"_blank\">Several SpaceX employees fired for writing open letter criticizing Musk</a></p><p>According to an internal memo, SpaceX has fired \"several employees\" who earlier wrote an open letter criticizing CEO Elon Musk's actions; The extraordinary incident underscores the growing divide around Musk's controversial comments.</p><p>The open letter called Musk's behavior and his tweets \"often distracting and embarrassing us, especially in recent weeks.\"</p><p>4. Cross-border restructuring of European banking industry restarted?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">BNP Paribas</a>Interest in acquiring state-owned ABN AMRO</p><p>On Friday, June 17th, some media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that BNP Paribas had expressed its interest in acquiring ABN Amro. ABN Amro is one of the largest multinational financial institutions in the Netherlands, with branches around the world, and ABN Amro ranks among the top European banks in terms of size and economic strength. ABN Amro has been under government control since the financial crisis. Some media said that BNP Paribas recently contacted the Dutch government to discuss the acquisition interest. What attracts BNP Paribas is ABN Amro's retail and corporate business, and the opportunity to expand in Northern Europe.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244214234\" target=\"_blank\">First time! FDA approves Moderna, Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for infants and young children over 6 months of age</a></p><p>On Friday, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approved Pfizer and Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine for use in infants and toddlers as young as 6 months. The FDA's decision comes after its independent committee of vaccine experts weighed the vaccine's safety and effectiveness during a full-day meeting open to the public on Wednesday and unanimously voted to recommend vaccinations for infants and young children.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244711784\" target=\"_blank\">Rivian intends to build large wind turbines at factory</a></p><p>Electric vehicle startup Rivian has announced that it will build large wind turbines at Normal's manufacturing campus. The turbine is designed to have a capacity of at least 2.8 MW and can generate nearly 10 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year. The planned site for the large wind turbine is within the vehicle test track on the east side of Rivian's manufacturing campus. The area near Normal is known for its strong winds and already has a significant wind turbine.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244112558\" target=\"_blank\">Liulishuo finalizes private deal with $6.8 million valuation</a></p><p>Liulishuo said on Friday that it has signed a definitive merger agreement with Cayman Islands-based LLP-Prilingo to go private. In this transaction, Liulishuo's equity valuation is US $6.8 million, and each outstanding ADS will be revoked in exchange for US $1.90 in cash. This represents a 15.8% premium to the weighted average price of Liulishuo ADS in the 10 trading days prior to receipt of the revised \"go private\" proposal dated April 28, 2022.</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2244613192\" target=\"_blank\">Cannot escape the \"inflation robbery\" DuPont and other chemical stocks are bearish by Jefferies</a></p><p>Jefferies will DuPont,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMN\">Eastman Chemical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CE\">Celanese</a>, Taihuashi and International Fragrance Company were downgraded to \"hold\" from \"buy\" because inflation will endanger the return on investment of these chemical companies.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153597517","content_text":"摘要：①美股周五收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.13%，纳指涨1.43%；②美联储最鹰派言论出炉！对恢复价格稳定的承诺是“无条件的”；③粮食危机雪上加霜，俄罗斯化肥生产商出口量削减近三成；④全球央行掀起80年代以来最鹰派行动，股市迈向两年最大周跌幅。海外市场1、周五美股收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.13%，纳指涨1.43%美股周五收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.13%，纳指涨1.43%，标普500指数涨0.22%，其中标普500指数创下2020年3月以来的最差周度表现。盘面上，大型科技股全线走高，苹果涨1.15%，微软涨1.09%，谷歌涨1.15%，亚马逊涨2.47%，Meta涨1.78%。2、热门中概股周五收盘普遍反弹，新能源汽车股走高贝壳、每日优鲜、水滴公司涨超6%，京东、富途控股、陆金所控股、小牛电动、趣店、亿航涨超5%，逸仙电商、云米科技、荔枝涨近4%。新能源汽车股走高，小鹏汽车涨超9%，蔚来(20.77,1.59,8.29%)汽车涨超8%，理想(33.15,1.35,4.25%)汽车涨超4%。3、欧股收盘涨跌不一德国DAX指数涨0.65%欧股收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数涨0.65%，法国CAC40指数跌0.06%，英国富时100指数跌0.66%。4、纽约原油期货周五重挫6.8%纽约原油期货价格周五收跌近7%。由于担心多个大国央行加息可能减缓全球经济增长并削减能源需求，原油期货价格大幅下跌。纽约商品交易所7月交割的西德州中质原油(WTI)期货价格下跌8.02美元，跌幅为6.82%，收于每桶109.56美元。5、纽约黄金期货价格周五收跌0.5%，本周下跌1.9%纽约黄金期货价格周五收跌，使其本周累计跌幅达到约1.9%。纽约商品交易所8月价格的黄金期货价格下跌0.5%，报收于每盎司1840.60美元。本周黄金期货价格累跌约1.9%。国际宏观1、美联储最鹰派言论出炉！对恢复价格稳定的承诺是“无条件的”6月17日周五，在美联储主席鲍威尔下周出席美国国会听证之前，美联储发布了被称为“迄今为止最鹰派抗击通胀措辞”的半年度货币政策报告。有分析指出，“无条件”这一措辞是美联储迄今为止最鹰派的用语。美联储主席鲍威尔将于下周三、四出席国会听证，为其发言提供蓝本的最新央行半年度货币政策报告，或意味着市场将“继续迎接下周鲍威尔放鹰”。2、鲍威尔：美联储“强烈专注于”让通胀回归2%美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申了遏制40年来最热通胀的决心，并表示美联储致力于鼓励全球持有美元并以美元进行交易。“我和我的同事强烈专注于让通胀回到我们2%的目标水平，”他为周五关于美元所扮演国际角色的美联储会议准备的欢迎致辞中表示。 “美联储对我们的价格稳定使命的坚定承诺，增强了人们将美元作为价值存储工具的广泛信心。”3、美国通胀爆表，美联储内部的鹰鸽阵营也乱了美国通胀爆表，美联储内部的鹰鸽阵营也乱了。超级鹰派的堪萨斯城联储主席George，解释了她为何在6月会议上作为少有的鸽派，投下反对票。同日，鸽派官员明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari则表态支持7月继续加息75个基点。4、粮食危机雪上加霜：俄罗斯化肥生产商出口量削减近三成西方对俄制裁正在让备受化肥价格冲击的全球粮食危机雪上加霜。当地时间6月17日周五，俄罗斯钾肥生产商Uralkali母公司Uralchem的CEO Dmitry Konyaev对俄罗斯媒体表示，Uralchem和Uralkali已将今年的化肥出口量削减了25-30%。5、英国央行露出“獠牙”，首席经济学家发出加息50基点信号英国央行和财政部更激进的立场转向或将到来，英国央行首席经济学家Huw Pill暗示，如果有进一步的证据表明高通胀正在推高工资或物价，决策者或采取加息50个基点的史无前例行动。华尔街大行如高盛和德意志银行都纷纷押注英国央行在8月和9月会连续加息50个基点。6、日本央行出手，套利交易被打的措手不及虽然日本央行周五并没有像很多交易员预期的那样“投降”，但是随着日本央行继续努力控制其政策目标并击退那些做空它的人，日本债券市场的一些部分正在崩溃。本周日本央行对债券购买计划的一个小调整，破坏了一种在海外投资者中很受欢迎的套利策略，即基差交易。它加剧了政府债券的供应短缺，加大了日本国内金融机构的压力，导致它们向日本央行寻求帮助以缓解压力。7、全球央行掀起80年代以来最鹰派行动，股市迈向两年最大周跌幅本周全球有三家主要央行提高了借贷成本，它们在匆忙应对此前没有预见到的通胀飙升之际，也正冒着引发经济衰退和金融市场动荡的风险。全球股市本周大幅下跌，涵盖发达市场和新兴市场股票的富时全球指数本周以来下跌了5.5%，这将是自2020年3月疫情引发动荡以来的最差表现。8、美俄“左右夹击”，欧洲天然气一周暴涨60%，“气荒”再次升级！由于腹背受“敌”，欧洲天然气价格创下自俄乌冲突以来最大的单周涨幅。当地时间周四上午，欧洲基准的荷兰近月TTF天然气期货价格一度上涨24%，今日再度上涨近10%，令一周的涨幅达到了60%。9、多份民调显示拜登支持率创新低近日，多份美国媒体民意调查显示，随着通胀持续上升以及对经济衰退的担忧，美国总统拜登的支持率又创新低。雅虎新闻联合尤戈夫调查公司进行的民调显示，拜登的支持率在过去一年中的大部分时间呈下降趋势。俄乌局势1、佩斯科夫：并不排除俄罗斯与乌克兰恢复谈判的可能性当地时间17日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫在接受俄新社采访时表示，并不排除俄罗斯与乌克兰恢复谈判的可能性，但乌方仍停滞在原地。稍早时候，俄罗斯总统普京在圣彼得堡国际经济论坛全会上表示，自苏联解体以来，俄罗斯一直致力于发展同乌克兰的关系。2、乌克兰国防部首次披露军事装备战损数据乌克兰国防部副部长卡尔彭科17日接受外国媒体采访时披露，自俄乌冲突爆发以来，乌军已损失约50%的重型装备，包括大约1300辆装甲车，400辆坦克和700门火炮。他还表示，国际对乌军事支持能满足乌克兰军队需求的10%到15%。3、欧委会建议给予乌克兰欧盟候选国地位当地时间16日，俄罗斯常驻联合国代表涅边贾表示，乌克兰加入欧盟不符合俄罗斯利益，同时欧盟国家不属于俄罗斯将与其发展关系的对象。当天，俄罗斯常驻欧盟代表奇若夫在第25届圣彼得堡国际经济论坛上表示，目前俄罗斯与欧盟的关系处于后者成立以来的最低点。4、俄罗斯预计下年度小麦出口3950万吨 但只与友好国家贸易俄罗斯副总理周四表示下一农业年度将出口更多小麦，但同时俄罗斯农业部长警告将只与友好国家进行贸易。俄罗斯也在对改用卢布支付粮食贸易进行准备。公司新闻1、最后一届“巴菲特慈善午餐”拍卖进入尾声 竞价已飙至1200万美元2022年的“巴菲特慈善午餐”于北京时间6月13日7时30分在eBay平台开拍，起拍价为2.5万美元，竞拍将持续一周，到北京时间6月18日10时30分结束。巴菲特慈善午餐的首次拍卖始于2000年，并自2003年起将eBay作为竞拍平台，迄今为止已募集了3400万美元的善款，历史上共有4位中国中标者。拍卖中标者最多可带7人与巴菲特在纽约共同进餐，并向他提出问题。2、又一个商品巨头赚翻了：嘉能可上半年的贸易业务利润已实现全年目标6月17日周五，总部位于瑞士的大宗商品贸易商和矿业巨头嘉能可发布声明称，预计今年上半年商品贸易业务的息税前利润将超过32亿美元，恰好位于公司对全年利润指引的区间上限(22亿至32亿美元)。3、SpaceX数名员工因撰写公开信批评马斯克而被解雇根据一份内部备忘录，SpaceX已经解雇了“数名员工”，他们早前撰写了一封公开信批评首席执行官伊隆·马斯克的行为；这起非同寻常的事件凸显了围绕马斯克争议性言论的分歧越来越大。这封公开信称马斯克的行为和他的推文“经常让我们分心，令我们感到尴尬，尤其是最近几周”。4、欧洲银行业跨境重组重启？ 法国巴黎银行有意收购国有荷兰银行6月17日周五，有媒体援引知情人士的话说，法国巴黎银行已经表达了有意收购荷兰银行的兴趣。荷兰银行是荷兰最大的跨国金融机构之一，在世界各地设有分支机构，荷兰银行的规模和经济实力在欧洲银行中排名前列。荷兰银行自金融危机以来一直在政府控制下。有媒体称，法国巴黎银行最近与荷兰政府接触，讨论了收购兴趣。吸引法巴的是荷兰银行的零售和企业业务，和在北欧扩张的机会。5、首次！FDA批准莫得纳、辉瑞的新冠疫苗用于6个月以上的婴幼儿周五，美国食品和药物管理局(FDA)正式批准辉瑞和Moderna的新冠疫苗可用于6个月大的婴幼儿。FDA做出这一决定之前，其独立疫苗专家委员会在周三向公众开放的全天会议上权衡了疫苗的安全性和有效性，一致投票推荐婴幼儿接种疫苗。6、Rivian拟在工厂建造大型风力涡轮机电动汽车初创公司Rivian宣布，将在Normal制造园区建造大型风力涡轮机。该涡轮机的设计容量至少为2.8兆瓦，每年能产生近1000万千瓦时的电力。大型风力涡轮机的计划选址在Rivian制造园区东侧的车辆测试轨道内。Normal附近的地区以强风著称，并已有一个重要的风力涡轮机。7、流利说以680万美元估值敲定私有化交易流利说周五表示，公司已与开曼群岛的LLP - Prilingo签署了最终合并协议以进行私有化。此次交易中，流利说的股权估值为680万美元，每一股流通在外的ADS将被撤销，以换取1.90美元现金。这意味着在收到日期为2022年4月28日的修订后的“私有化”建议书之前的10个交易日内，流利说ADS的加权平均价格有15.8%溢价。8、难逃“通胀劫”杜邦等化工股遭杰富瑞看空杰富瑞将杜邦、伊士曼化工、塞拉尼斯、泰华施和国际香料公司的评级由“买入”下调至“持有“，原因是通胀将危及这些化工企业的投资回报率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059810258,"gmtCreate":1654324752374,"gmtModify":1676535432422,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>🤔","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>🤔","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$🤔","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4745eb6d001d71f199f7c8157098277f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059810258","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050181492,"gmtCreate":1654146073016,"gmtModify":1676535402962,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PXE\">$Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration &amp; Production ETF(PXE)$</a>🎉","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PXE\">$Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration &amp; Production ETF(PXE)$</a>🎉","text":"$Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF(PXE)$🎉","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ead47599dd394aa5e7bdd4e4d19075c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050181492","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024995486,"gmtCreate":1653787091545,"gmtModify":1676535340730,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>👍💪","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>👍💪","text":"$西方石油(OXY)$👍💪","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a90658d36abe64ddd95bc57a3571870f","width":"1080","height":"3138"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024995486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025586354,"gmtCreate":1653704663578,"gmtModify":1676535330271,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115268343523852","idStr":"4115268343523852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪","listText":"💪","text":"💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025586354","repostId":"1172880145","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172880145","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653649544,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172880145?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 19:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Occidental Petroleum and Chevron hit new highs, proving Buffett's buying logic?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172880145","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"在美股众多板块当中，石油板块确实不负所望。数据显示，截至目前雪佛龙单周涨幅达5.23%，西方石油单周涨幅达8.54%。两家石油股巨头的股价表现均创阶段性新高。石油股备受关注背后，巴菲特的持仓动作也是一","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Among the many sectors in the U.S. stock market, the oil sector has indeed lived up to expectations. Data shows that as of now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>The weekly increase reached 5.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The weekly increase reached 8.54%. The stock price performance of the two oil stock giants hit a stage high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d05e58028c4e25af3ae644e33389a6a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b94782207ce4f6fa29ebc240286e2970\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Behind the attention that oil stocks have attracted, Buffett's position action is also a major attraction.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>A rare high turnover rate. According to statistics, Berkshire's overall turnover rate rose to 12.49% in the first quarter of this year, the highest since 2015 (the turnover rate in the third quarter of 2015 was 21.21%).</p><p><b>In addition to the financial, consumption and other fields that Buffett has always preferred before, he has recently continued to increase his allocation to energy stocks such as oil.</b></p><p>According to the data of the 13F report, Berkshire increased its position in Chevron by 120 million to 159 million shares in the first quarter, with a market value of US $25.919 billion, accounting for 7% of Berkshire's overall market value in the first quarter, and rose to the fourth largest holdings (the top ten new holdings in the fourth quarter of last year). \"Red Weekly\" noticed that Berkshire had opened a position in Chevron in the third quarter of 2020 and has been holding positions continuously so far.</p><p>At the same time, there is another oil stock-Occidental Petroleum, and Buffett also increased his holdings significantly. According to market news, Berkshire increased its holdings of 5.89 million shares of Occidental Petroleum in the first quarter. After the increase, the market value of its holdings was approximately US $13.2 billion, ranking the sixth largest holding. It is worth mentioning that Berkshire's current holdings in the oil industry have exceeded US $40 billion, accounting for 11% of the total market value of its holdings.</p><p>Buffett favors and increases the layout of oil stocks. At the same time, the recent market trend is prominent, which is related to multiple factors.</p><p>Regarding increasing positions in Occidental Petroleum, Buffett thinks its annual report is very good. It said that the short-term fluctuations in the market caused by the \"gambling mentality\" since late February have allowed them to find good buying opportunities.</p><p><b>With the soaring prices of oil and natural gas, energy stocks including Chevron and Occidental Petroleum have all achieved substantial growth in performance.</b>According to Chevron's financial report, its net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders in the first quarter was US $6.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 350%; Revenue in the first quarter was US $54.373 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69.76%.</p><p>The first quarterly report shows that Occidental Petroleum ushered in the best financial report record in history, with revenue increasing by 57% year-on-year to US $8.34 billion, and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching a record of US $4.67 billion, turning losses into profits year-on-year;</p><p>Quarterly free cash flow of $3.3 billion also set a record high, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.12 exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Buffett also said earlier that oil is currently in a state of imbalance between supply and demand.</b>According to Zhitong Financial News, energy consulting firm Turner, Mason & Co. estimates that refining capacity in other parts of the world has decreased by 2.13 million barrels per day. Moreover, with no plans to put new U.S. refineries on production, refiners are making record profits at a time when supply constraints are becoming increasingly severe.</p><p>In fact, since 2021, the global crude oil supply and demand balance has begun to tighten, and the gap is expected to be 1.72 million barrels per day by 2022. The core reason is the continuous production reduction plan of OPEC member countries starting in early 2021, making OPEC The proportion of meeting the global additional gap gradually drops to 90%. Major countries are also difficult to be self-sufficient in their own crude oil demand and production capacity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c7cdffff8d042b2c8b36de3346f96d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: OPEC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>Securities Research Institute</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5365c3463564a83a3359f57d9a9a3e0b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: OPEC, Orient Fortune Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>With the gradual imbalance between supply and demand, with the long-term existence of inflation-stagflation, oil prices will trend at a high level for a long time, which will greatly improve the profits of oil companies.</b></p><p>On May 26 of the same period, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak announced a 25% profit tax on the oil and gas industry. \"The oil and gas industry has made huge profits not because of recent changes to risk-taking, innovation or efficiency, but because of the surge in global commodity prices,\" Sunak said.</p><p>According to the Buffett Reading Club, Occidental Petroleum management has said that every $1 increase in oil prices will generate the company $225 million in annual revenue. In 2021, the annual average oil price calculated by the company at that time was US $66.14. At the price level at that time, the oil and gas business brought a total operating profit of US $4.1 billion to the company.</p><p>With the current oil price soaring to historical highs, assuming that the annual average oil price remains at US $106/barrel, the company will have the potential to create an additional profit of US $9 billion.</p><p><b>In terms of increasing reserves, historical data is equally grim. Although supply-side capital expenditures have doubled and reserve replacement rates have not improved, demand continues to lead to a widening gap between supply and demand in the future.</b></p><p>Natural resource research firm Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates released the study titled \"The Incredibly Shrinking Oil Majors\" on October 1, 2021. The four oil majors they studied set a goal in 2000 to increase reserves by 5% per year. However, all four businesses failed, and their reserves were actually declining.</p><p>According to Goehring Research, \"From 2000 to 2010, the Big Four spent US $615 billion on upstream capital expenditures. During the same period, they produced 50.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent and discovered new reserves of 41.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, resulting in a reserve replacement rate of 86% and an average discovery and development cost of US $14.30 per barrel of oil equivalent.</p><p>Between 2010 and 2020, upstream capital expenditures surged to $1.15. At the same time, the companies produced 50.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent and discovered new reserves of 43.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent-a good fit with the previous decade.</p><p>Despite nearly doubling upstream capital expenditures, the companies are still unable to replace production with new reserves. Indeed, the reserve replacement rate remained at 85% despite increased spending.</p><p>The effectiveness has not improved significantly, but the cost of finding and developing new reserves has almost doubled, from $14.30 to $26.40 per barrel of oil equivalent. \"</p><p>Despite the slowdown in global economic growth and the transformation of old and new energy sources, global crude oil demand will still maintain an annual increase of 1-1.5 million barrels per day from 2023 to 2025, and it is difficult for crude oil supply capacity to meet the demand increase. In the medium and long term, the global crude oil supply and demand gap will exist for a long time.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, energy companies tend to perform more prominently during inflation.</p><p>The performance of U.S. stocks during the inflation-stagflation period in the 1970s, and the stock price returns of energy companies exceeded 10 times. By the end of 1981, among the top 20 companies in the U.S. stock market, the energy sector even accounted for half.</p><p><b>Looking back at the Fed's six inflation-rate hike cycles, we can find that energy companies have the best chances of outperforming the market and earning excess returns.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1643368503284","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Occidental Petroleum and Chevron hit new highs, proving Buffett's buying logic?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOccidental Petroleum and Chevron hit new highs, proving Buffett's buying logic?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街大事件</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-27 19:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Among the many sectors in the U.S. stock market, the oil sector has indeed lived up to expectations. Data shows that as of now<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>The weekly increase reached 5.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The weekly increase reached 8.54%. The stock price performance of the two oil stock giants hit a stage high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d05e58028c4e25af3ae644e33389a6a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b94782207ce4f6fa29ebc240286e2970\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Behind the attention that oil stocks have attracted, Buffett's position action is also a major attraction.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>A rare high turnover rate. According to statistics, Berkshire's overall turnover rate rose to 12.49% in the first quarter of this year, the highest since 2015 (the turnover rate in the third quarter of 2015 was 21.21%).</p><p><b>In addition to the financial, consumption and other fields that Buffett has always preferred before, he has recently continued to increase his allocation to energy stocks such as oil.</b></p><p>According to the data of the 13F report, Berkshire increased its position in Chevron by 120 million to 159 million shares in the first quarter, with a market value of US $25.919 billion, accounting for 7% of Berkshire's overall market value in the first quarter, and rose to the fourth largest holdings (the top ten new holdings in the fourth quarter of last year). \"Red Weekly\" noticed that Berkshire had opened a position in Chevron in the third quarter of 2020 and has been holding positions continuously so far.</p><p>At the same time, there is another oil stock-Occidental Petroleum, and Buffett also increased his holdings significantly. According to market news, Berkshire increased its holdings of 5.89 million shares of Occidental Petroleum in the first quarter. After the increase, the market value of its holdings was approximately US $13.2 billion, ranking the sixth largest holding. It is worth mentioning that Berkshire's current holdings in the oil industry have exceeded US $40 billion, accounting for 11% of the total market value of its holdings.</p><p>Buffett favors and increases the layout of oil stocks. At the same time, the recent market trend is prominent, which is related to multiple factors.</p><p>Regarding increasing positions in Occidental Petroleum, Buffett thinks its annual report is very good. It said that the short-term fluctuations in the market caused by the \"gambling mentality\" since late February have allowed them to find good buying opportunities.</p><p><b>With the soaring prices of oil and natural gas, energy stocks including Chevron and Occidental Petroleum have all achieved substantial growth in performance.</b>According to Chevron's financial report, its net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders in the first quarter was US $6.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 350%; Revenue in the first quarter was US $54.373 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69.76%.</p><p>The first quarterly report shows that Occidental Petroleum ushered in the best financial report record in history, with revenue increasing by 57% year-on-year to US $8.34 billion, and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching a record of US $4.67 billion, turning losses into profits year-on-year;</p><p>Quarterly free cash flow of $3.3 billion also set a record high, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.12 exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Buffett also said earlier that oil is currently in a state of imbalance between supply and demand.</b>According to Zhitong Financial News, energy consulting firm Turner, Mason & Co. estimates that refining capacity in other parts of the world has decreased by 2.13 million barrels per day. Moreover, with no plans to put new U.S. refineries on production, refiners are making record profits at a time when supply constraints are becoming increasingly severe.</p><p>In fact, since 2021, the global crude oil supply and demand balance has begun to tighten, and the gap is expected to be 1.72 million barrels per day by 2022. The core reason is the continuous production reduction plan of OPEC member countries starting in early 2021, making OPEC The proportion of meeting the global additional gap gradually drops to 90%. Major countries are also difficult to be self-sufficient in their own crude oil demand and production capacity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c7cdffff8d042b2c8b36de3346f96d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Data source: OPEC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>Securities Research Institute</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5365c3463564a83a3359f57d9a9a3e0b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: OPEC, Orient Fortune Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>With the gradual imbalance between supply and demand, with the long-term existence of inflation-stagflation, oil prices will trend at a high level for a long time, which will greatly improve the profits of oil companies.</b></p><p>On May 26 of the same period, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak announced a 25% profit tax on the oil and gas industry. \"The oil and gas industry has made huge profits not because of recent changes to risk-taking, innovation or efficiency, but because of the surge in global commodity prices,\" Sunak said.</p><p>According to the Buffett Reading Club, Occidental Petroleum management has said that every $1 increase in oil prices will generate the company $225 million in annual revenue. In 2021, the annual average oil price calculated by the company at that time was US $66.14. At the price level at that time, the oil and gas business brought a total operating profit of US $4.1 billion to the company.</p><p>With the current oil price soaring to historical highs, assuming that the annual average oil price remains at US $106/barrel, the company will have the potential to create an additional profit of US $9 billion.</p><p><b>In terms of increasing reserves, historical data is equally grim. Although supply-side capital expenditures have doubled and reserve replacement rates have not improved, demand continues to lead to a widening gap between supply and demand in the future.</b></p><p>Natural resource research firm Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates released the study titled \"The Incredibly Shrinking Oil Majors\" on October 1, 2021. The four oil majors they studied set a goal in 2000 to increase reserves by 5% per year. However, all four businesses failed, and their reserves were actually declining.</p><p>According to Goehring Research, \"From 2000 to 2010, the Big Four spent US $615 billion on upstream capital expenditures. During the same period, they produced 50.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent and discovered new reserves of 41.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, resulting in a reserve replacement rate of 86% and an average discovery and development cost of US $14.30 per barrel of oil equivalent.</p><p>Between 2010 and 2020, upstream capital expenditures surged to $1.15. At the same time, the companies produced 50.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent and discovered new reserves of 43.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent-a good fit with the previous decade.</p><p>Despite nearly doubling upstream capital expenditures, the companies are still unable to replace production with new reserves. Indeed, the reserve replacement rate remained at 85% despite increased spending.</p><p>The effectiveness has not improved significantly, but the cost of finding and developing new reserves has almost doubled, from $14.30 to $26.40 per barrel of oil equivalent. \"</p><p>Despite the slowdown in global economic growth and the transformation of old and new energy sources, global crude oil demand will still maintain an annual increase of 1-1.5 million barrels per day from 2023 to 2025, and it is difficult for crude oil supply capacity to meet the demand increase. In the medium and long term, the global crude oil supply and demand gap will exist for a long time.</p><p>Taking history as a guide, energy companies tend to perform more prominently during inflation.</p><p>The performance of U.S. stocks during the inflation-stagflation period in the 1970s, and the stock price returns of energy companies exceeded 10 times. By the end of 1981, among the top 20 companies in the U.S. stock market, the energy sector even accounted for half.</p><p><b>Looking back at the Fed's six inflation-rate hike cycles, we can find that energy companies have the best chances of outperforming the market and earning excess returns.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mXrXxY-4sK4KhBQ9yNfn8w\">华尔街大事件</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ecc14db02762fcb82cdbb76e654301","relate_stocks":{"BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","OXY":"西方石油","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","CVX":"雪佛龙","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mXrXxY-4sK4KhBQ9yNfn8w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172880145","content_text":"在美股众多板块当中，石油板块确实不负所望。数据显示，截至目前雪佛龙单周涨幅达5.23%，西方石油单周涨幅达8.54%。两家石油股巨头的股价表现均创阶段性新高。石油股备受关注背后，巴菲特的持仓动作也是一大看点。2022年一季度，伯克希尔罕见的高换手率。据统计，今年一季度伯克希尔整体换手率上升至12.49%，创2015年以来（2015年三季度换手率为21.21%）的最高值。除了巴菲特此前一直偏爱的金融、消费等领域，其近来持续增加对石油等能源股的配置。据13F报告数据显示，伯克希尔一季度增仓雪佛龙1.2亿股至1.59亿股，持仓市值为259.19亿美元，占伯克希尔一季度整体持仓市值为7%，并上升至第四大重仓股（去年四季度新进前十大重仓股）。《红周刊》注意到，伯克希尔曾于2020年三季度建仓雪佛龙，至今连续持仓。同时还有另外一只石油股——西方石油，巴菲特也大笔增持。据市场消息，伯克希尔一季度增持西方石油589万股，增持后持仓市值约132亿美元，位列第六重仓股。值得一提的是，伯克希尔目前对石油行业的持仓已超过400亿美元，占总持仓市值比重达11%。巴菲特青睐并加大石油股的布局，同时市场近期走势的凸显，与多重因素有关。对于加仓西方石油，巴菲特认为其年报很好。其表示，2月下旬以来市场因“赌博心态”引发的短期波动让他们找到了良好的买入机会。随着石油、天然气价格飙升，包括雪佛龙、西方石油等能源股均实现了业绩大幅增长。据雪佛龙财报显示，其一季度实现归属于普通股东净利润为62.59亿美元，同比大增350%；一季度营收为543.73亿美元，同比增长69.76%。一季报显示，西方石油迎来了有史以来最好的财报记录，营收同比增长57%，达83.4亿美元，归母净利润创纪录达46.7亿美元，同比扭亏为盈；季度自由现金流为33亿美元，也创下了历史新高，调整后每股盈利为2.12美元，超过市场预期。巴菲特此前也表示，石油目前处于一个供需失衡的状态。据智通财经消息，能源咨询公司Turner, Mason & Co.预计，世界其他地方的炼油日产能已经减少213万桶。而且，由于没有计划让新的美国炼油厂投产，目前炼油企业正获得创纪录的利润，而供应紧张形势却变得越来越严峻。事实上自从2021年开始，全球原油供需平衡表就在开始偏紧，至2022年全年预计缺口在172万桶每日，核心原因是OPEC成员国从2021年初开始的的持续减产计划，使得OPEC满足全球额外缺口比例逐渐低至90%。主要国家自身原油需求与生产能力也出现难以自给自足的现象。数据来源：OPEC、东方财富证券研究所数据来源：OPEC、东方财富证券研究所在供需逐渐失衡的状态下，伴随通胀—滞胀的长期存在，油价将长期高位走势，这将大幅改善石油公司的利润。同期5月26日，英国财政大臣苏纳克宣布对石油和天然气行业征收25%的利润税。苏纳克表示:“石油和天然气行业之所以能获得巨额利润，不是因为最近对风险承担、创新或效率的改变，而是由于全球大宗商品价格飙升。”据巴菲特读书会消息，西方石油管理层曾表示，油价每上涨1美元，将为公司每年产生2.25亿美元的收益。在2021年，当时公司所计算的全年平均油价为66.14美元，在当时的价格水平下，油气业务共为公司带来了41亿美元的营运利润。而随着目前油价飙升至历史高位，假设全年平均油价维持在106美元/桶，那么公司将有潜力创造90亿美元的额外利润。而在增加储备方面，历史数据同样严峻。尽管供给侧资本开支翻倍，而储备替代率并未改善，需求持续导致未来供求缺口增大。自然资源研究公司Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates于2021年10月1日发布了标题为“令人难以置信的萎缩的石油巨头”的研究。他们研究的四个石油巨头在2000年制定了一个目标，即每年增加5%的储量。然而，四家企业都失败了，它们的储备实际上都在下降。据Goehring 研究表示，“从2000年到2010年，四大巨头在上游资本支出上花费了6150亿美元。同期，他们生产了503亿桶油当量，发现了411亿桶油当量的新储量，导致储量替代率为86%，且平均发现和开发成本为每桶油当量 14.30美元。2010年至2020年间，上游资本支出飙升至1.15美元。与此同时，这些公司生产了506亿桶油当量，并发现了433亿桶油当量的新储量——与前十年非常吻合。尽管上游资本支出几乎翻了一番，但这些公司仍然无法用新的储备来替代生产。事实上，尽管支出增加，储备替代率仍保持在85%。成效没有显著提高，但寻找和开发新储量的成本却几乎翻了一番，从每桶油当量14.30美元增加到 26.40美元。”虽然面临全球经济增速放缓和新旧能源转型，2023-2025年全球原油需求每年仍将维持100-150万桶/日的增量，原油供给能力较难满足需求增量，从中长期来看，全球原油供需缺口将长期存在。以史为鉴，通胀期间能源公司往往表现更为突出。美股在1970年代通胀—滞胀阶段的表现，能源公司股价收益表现超过了10倍。到1981年底美股市值前20大公司中，能源板块甚至占了一半。回顾美联储的6次通胀—加息周期，可以发现能源公司跑赢市场并获得超额回报的胜算最大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"OXY":0.9,"CVX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}