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2022-08-20

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Senior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to "set the tone" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?

2022-07-17

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2022-06-14

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Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?

2022-06-09

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US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down with U.S. Treasury Yields above 3%

2022-06-12

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Alibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again

2022-08-28

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Ideal responds to the delayed delivery of L9: due to the delay in supply from the Sichuan range extender factory

2022-07-11

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2022-08-20

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Senior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to "set the tone" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?

2022-07-14

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2022-06-15

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17:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tencent Holdings repurchased 1.1 million shares today at a total cost of approximately HK $351 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188730327","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"腾讯控股：于9月5日回购110万股，回购价格为316.6-324港元，共耗资约3.51亿港元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>: On September 5, 1.1 million shares were repurchased at a repurchase price of HK $316.6-324, with a total cost of approximately HK $351 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ee177bdf306f991afb7d40f950e889\" tg-width=\"1576\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Holdings repurchased 1.1 million shares today at a total cost of approximately HK $351 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-05 17:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>: On September 5, 1.1 million shares were repurchased at a repurchase price of HK $316.6-324, with a total cost of approximately HK $351 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ee177bdf306f991afb7d40f950e889\" tg-width=\"1576\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"BK1517":"云办公","BK1586":"云计算","BK1502":"双十一","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","00700":"腾讯控股","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1531":"手游股","BK1516":"腾讯概念","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1526":"科网股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188730327","content_text":"腾讯控股：于9月5日回购110万股，回购价格为316.6-324港元，共耗资约3.51亿港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9,"TCEHY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933837468,"gmtCreate":1662258404955,"gmtModify":1676537026007,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933837468","repostId":"1183237993","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933922402,"gmtCreate":1662205594406,"gmtModify":1676537018091,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933922402","repostId":"1101174405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101174405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662163894,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101174405?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-03 08:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A grain of ash on Nvidia's head","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101174405","media":"远川研究所","summary":"刚刚开幕的世界人工智能大会上，已经没有人关心今年到底马斯克会语出惊人，还是会BAT三巨头重聚斗法，所有交头接耳的观众就关心一件事——英伟达的A100、H100显卡，真的要断供了吗？一旦英伟达和AMD的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>At the just-opened World Artificial Intelligence Conference, no one cared whether Musk would speak amazingly this year, or whether the BAT Big Three would reunite to fight. All the whispering audiences cared about one thing-<b>Are Nvidia's A100 and H100 graphics cards really going to be cut off?</b>？</p><p><b>Once the supply of GPUs from Nvidia and AMD is cut off, it is tantamount to dragging the bottom of the pot for the development of the artificial intelligence industry</b>--Any real AI research institution has A100 and H100.</p><p><b>Nvidia has not had an easy time in the past year</b>, in the second quarter of 2022, Nvidia handed over a shocking financial report, and its revenue fell by 19% month-on-month. The game business, which supports the main revenue, fell by 44% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year.</p><p>The game of the largest business suffered a thunderstorm, the data center of the second largest business suffered a drain from the bottom of the United States, and Nvidia's stock price also continued to bottom out. Compared with the high point at the end of last year, Nvidia's stock price has now been cut by nearly half, with a market value of only US $377.4 billion.</p><p>Looking back a year ago, the story about Nvidia is still another set of narratives:</p><p>In April 2021, Nvidia held a \"metaverse Conference\". In the middle of the speech, CEO Huang Renxun was secretly replaced with a digital person, and almost no one noticed it. Three months later, 14 seconds of \"stealing the sky and changing the day\" was made public, and Nvidia successfully sealed the \"metaverse Giant\".</p><p>There is no doubt that in the technology industry, \"metaverse\" is the three most discussed words this year. Taking advantage of the trend, Nvidia's stock price has been booming all the way. In November, Nvidia's market value exceeded US $800 billion, making it the world's most valuable semiconductor company.</p><p>As metaverse's infrastructure, the computing power support of AI outlets, and the core productivity of virtual currency miners, Nvidia's performance this year was equally impressive: total revenue was US $26.914 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04aac5b05b0637eff403d850e750a843\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>14 seconds that are difficult to distinguish between true and false</p><p><b>In less than a year, what happened to Nvidia?</b></p><p><b>01. Rise: Computing power reverses life and death</b></p><p>To understand Nvidia's current situation, we must start with the relationship between Nvidia and computing power.</p><p>In Silicon Valley, few entrepreneurs can be as stubborn as Nvidia founder Huang Renxun, and his belief is simple:<b>Computing power is power</b>。</p><p>Under this belief, in 2010, Nvidia released a new generation graphics card-GTX480 with explosive performance and explosive heat. Someone has done a test. The working temperature of the GTX480 with full horsepower often soars to sixty or seventy degrees. If you are not careful, you will go to Yellow Springs with other components.</p><p>So what about that? Huang Renxun \"I want me to feel\", the greater the computing power, the better.</p><p>A year later, Nvidia released its latest graphics card, the GTX590. Soon after a foreign media ran the GTX590 at its maximum power, a blue smoke curled up from the circuit board, and the title of \"nuclear bomb\" of Nvidia graphics card has spread like wildfire since then.</p><p>These are just appetizers. When Nvidia introduced its successor GTX690, angry netizens directly added it to the encyclopedia entry of \"Aircraft Carrier Killer\". After watching it, the host of Gansu Satellite TV believed it and wrote it into the oral broadcast draft of the military program:</p><p>“<b>Especially the improved model equipped with GTX690 core graphics card, which can destroy an aircraft carrier battle group with one shot!</b>”</p><p>After the program was broadcast, Huang Renxun, a Silicon Valley madman, was once again crowned the \"Father of Two Bombs\" title.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac73479b1566947e38e4854795412516\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is false to blow up the aircraft carrier cluster with super computing power, but the dream of blowing up Nvidia's mobile terminal is real:</p><p>In 2011, with the decline of traditional PCs and the rise of smart phones, the trend of becoming a new generation of super terminals has gradually become clear: Nvidia, which is eager to show its talents in the field of smart phones, launched the world's first quad-core processor Tegra 3, which improved its performance by 3 times compared with the previous generation.</p><p>Propaganda is beautiful, isn't it? HTC, eager to reverse the decline of its smartphone business, believed it and chose to suffocate Nvidia's dream: in the latest flagship phone, it radically used Tegra 3.</p><p>As a result, the skinny camel turned into a feverish camel. The serious fever problem caused by Tegra 3's violent accumulation of computing power has become the last straw that crushed the recovery of HTC smartphones. Nvidia's journey to pursue the dream of mobile terminal has also come to an end for the time being.</p><p>Huang Renxun's paranoia about computing power brought Nvidia into a dead end at that time: the spontaneous combustion of graphics cards and the losing wave of smartphones once caused Nvidia's stock price to fall by nearly half.</p><p><b>02. Reversal: When computing power truly becomes power</b></p><p>But failure is also calculating power, and success is also calculating power. At a desperate juncture, Huang Renxun's belief that \"computing power changes the world\" was unexpectedly proved in the field of AI.</p><p>Before 2012, AI had experienced two waves, both of which were unsustainable due to objective conditions. Simply put, the limitation of the first time is insufficient computing power, and the second time is too high cost.</p><p>Because before, AI recognition mostly relied on CPU.</p><p>CPU is suitable for complex general serial tasks and has built-in up to 16 powerful ALUs (arithmetic logic units). To translate, this is equivalent to a college student who can do calculus, with a good brain but low efficiency. In 2010, AI pioneer Andrew Ng had to spend 16,000 CPU processors in order to make the AI program identify a cat, which is equivalent to 40 or 50 Internet cafes firing at full power at the same time, costing about 1 million US dollars.</p><p>The GPU is suitable for simple and specific parallel tasks. It has thousands of simple ALUs built in, which is approximately equal to hundreds of primary school students who can only do addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. The brain is a bit poor, but it wins because of its high efficiency.</p><p>So to sum up, handling complex logical tasks and serving as the commander's work is exclusive to the CPU; But GPU is most suitable for simple and repetitive things that accumulate computing power violently.</p><p>Where do you need to build up computing power violently? In the past, the only recognized application scenarios for GPUs were games. But Huang Renxun's belief is that computing power can change the world: in order to better utilize GPU computing power, Nvidia also launched a tool software called CUDA to lower the threshold of GPU programming, and invested 6 years regardless of cost.</p><p>This made AI scholars finally realize the power of GPU computing power.</p><p>For scenarios such as AI deep learning, \"100 primary school students' brains\" are enough-this means that GPUs with high computing power are obviously more suitable. After Andrew Ng replaced the AI program of that year with GPU, he was surprised to find that only 12 were needed.</p><p>This major discovery, combined with software breakthroughs, detonated the third wave of AI development in the world, and also pushed Nvidia, which has both an AI software and hardware ecosystem, to the top of the mountain: Today, the world's largest Amazon public cloud and BAT's AI research, the bottom layer It is inseparable from the technical support of Nvidia GPU.</p><p><b>Wherever there is AI, everyone mentions Nvidia</b>。 As Huang Renxun firmly believes, computing power has really changed the world this time.</p><p>Coincidentally, cryptocurrencies that emerged at the same time were also highly dependent on GPU computing power. With the blessing of many outlets, graphics cards are \"hard to find\" all the year round, and Huang Renxun, the \"boss\", has become a veritable \"godfather of graphics cards\". The \"believers\" of the graphics card once recorded these glorious deeds in the form of Historical Records, and finally commented:</p><p>\"There is Renxun first and then there is Heaven, and the graphics card is abusing the gods.\"</p><p><b>03. Coronation: GPU devour everything</b></p><p>At the GTC conference in 2019, Huang Renxun once again publicly mentioned his belief in computing power: \"Even if Moore's Law comes to an end, GPUs will be omnipotent.\" Finally, in 2021, his belief has been generally recognized by the secondary market. Sister Mumu and other investment giants have increased their investment successively, and the secondary market has been triumphing all the way, and the market value has tripled a year.</p><p>This mainly comes from two increases and two new narratives.</p><p>The growth comes from two main businesses, namely games and data centers.</p><p>Demand for gaming increased due to extended stay-at-home hours caused by the pandemic. According to Newzoo's statistics, the global gaming market grew by 1.4% in 2021. If you need to run 3A-level games on the PC side, a discrete graphics card is an essential tool. At present, there are almost only two choices, Nvidia and AMD. Among them, Nvidia has an absolute advantage in market share-in the third quarter of the same year, Nvidia took 83% of the market.</p><p>However, in addition to the game house, there is a larger group snapping up game graphics cards.</p><p>In 2021, the cryptocurrency market will usher in a new round of bull market: Bitcoin has more than 2 times, Ethereum has 4 times, and LUNA, which later triggered an earthquake in the currency circle, has risen more than 80 times. The market boom has spawned a large number of \"crypto miners\". Mining is a means of producing cryptocurrency, which relies on powerful GPU computing power. The mining machine made of top-of-the-line game graphics card has become a veritable \"gold shovel\", and computing power has also become synonymous with \"wealth\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5532287cd6f926f8872e91441dd9483a\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bitcoin soars</p><p>The resulting surge in demand has led to an increase in the volume and price of Nvidia's graphics cards, and the game business has also taken off, creating revenue of US $3.2 billion in the third quarter of 2021, and a year-on-year growth of 42%.</p><p>At the same time, the global data center industry also ushered in spring: the scale reached US $76.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, and the growth rate will remain above 10% in the next few years. [5] Data centers are the product of the wave of AI development, which means that Nvidia, which owns both CUDA and GPU, has won again. Among the world's top 500 supercomputers, 342 are served by Nvidia.</p><p>This trend was also quickly reflected in Nvidia's financial report: In 2021, data center revenue increased by 124% year-on-year, and surpassed games in the first quarter of the following year to become a new revenue pillar.</p><p>While the financial report performance is rising gratifying, the two new narratives brought by Nvidia have also whetted the appetite of the secondary market.</p><p>The first to bear the brunt was one of the biggest outlets of the year-metaverse.</p><p>At the end of 2021, Huang Renxun demonstrated a new generation of tooling software Omniverse, calling it \"metaverse for engineers.\" In the future envisioned by Nvidia, everything in the real universe can be installed into the virtual world with the help of Omniverse and GPU computing power, providing people with a key to the metaverse. On the day of the release, Nvidia's stock price reached a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b14b53638f1068c41b8107020948235\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Another new narrative comes from ARM: In 2021, Nvidia is steadily advancing matters related to the acquisition of ARM from Japan's SoftBank.</p><p>ARM is a technology patent provider in the field of mobile chips. More than 90% of smartphones use ARM architecture. Once the acquisition is completed, Huang Renxun has the opportunity to unify the PC and mobile markets, and the only legend of Nvidia will be left in the world.</p><p>Everything seems to be moving towards<b>Old immortal computing power, boundless magic power</b>The direction of.</p><p><b>04. Shui Inverse: Has the super power of computing power disappeared?</b></p><p>Computing power is power, and computing power determines the ability of AI. After more than ten years, not only Nvidia's believers understand, but also the U.S. government understands:</p><p>In this quarter alone, Nvidia's sales of these two chips exported to China have reached US $400 million. You know, in the latest fiscal quarter, Nvidia's total revenue was only US $6.7 billion, and he must not want to lose the Chinese market.</p><p><b>But Nvidia's water reversal is more than just that.</b></p><p>At the beginning of this year, before the dream of unifying the rivers and lakes had begun, Nvidia's ARM acquisition road suffered joint attacks from governments and global technology giants:</p><p>First, in 2021, the four technology giants Qualcomm, Microsoft, Intel, and Amazon formed an \"anti-Nvidia alliance\" to jointly provide monopoly evidence to regulatory agencies in various countries in an attempt to stop the acquisition.</p><p>Later, when Huang Renxun submitted acquisition applications to various countries, the global regulatory agencies responded exactly the same-delay. Among them, the reason given by the European Union is the most wonderful: because there is a summer vacation.</p><p>On February 8, 2022, Nvidia finally received a reply from the regulatory agencies of the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union. Unfortunately, the answer was no. The reason was that it was worried about the possible serious monopoly in the global semiconductor industry. By then, the neutrality of ARM will disappear.</p><p>For Huang Renxun<b>, the failure of ARM acquisition was just the beginning, and soon after, the graphics card speculation market also collapsed</b>。</p><p>In March 2021, CCTV sent reporters to \"undercover\" the digital market, exposing the path of graphics card profiteers to get rich. But a year later, when I revisited my old place, there was a completely opposite scene in front of me. Seeing the reporter who made an unannounced visit, the merchants in Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen, couldn't hide their grief, bluntly saying that they took the order at a high price, and now they will lose three or four thousand yuan for every video card they sell. At the most extreme moment, the graphics card dropped by 1,000 yuan a month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302a2d8cf0eeb0cd244cef3ed5f58083\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In August this year, the RTX30 series graphics cards, which used to be \"hard to find a card\", have successfully broken, and the price of second-hand graphics cards on eBay has generally been halved.</p><p>Even so, there are still many voices calling for \"don't take over\"-there is still room for further bottoming out in prices. Wait for the party to shout the slogan \"If you don't buy it, I won't buy it, the graphics card will drop by 200 tomorrow\", while figuring out when the profiteers who hoarded goods at high prices last year will go to the rooftop to perform \"trapeze\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42454d54a829cc393282f8a8629a717a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In just one year, the demand for graphics cards has shrunk sharply. In the past, graphics cards with both volume and price rising suddenly became unsalable, which became the chief culprit of Nvidia's performance thunderstorm. In the second quarter, the revenue of the game business (graphics card) was only about US $6.7 billion, a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decrease of more than 30%. Affected by inventory problems, Nvidia's gross profit margin also fell to 43.7%, far lower than the previous forecast of 65.1%.</p><p>In just one year, the myth of GPU computing power suddenly lost its magic?</p><p><b>05. A grain of ash of the times falls on Nvidia's head</b></p><p>But unlike Nvidia's failures in the past, Huang Renxun didn't do anything wrong this time, but times have changed.</p><p>IC Insights, a market research company, has compiled a statistics: Since the 1990s, the rise and fall of the semiconductor industry has been almost highly bound to the trend of global GDP.</p><p>The logic behind it is not difficult to understand,<b>Only when people's pockets get bigger and bigger day by day will they care which one is faster, Nvidia 3090TI or AMD 6950XT</b>, game houses will switch to new computers for a better experience, crypto miners firmly believe that \"computing power is wealth\" are frantically hoarding graphics cards, even scholars have sufficient budgets to build data centers for research, multiple waves alternate, everyone Together, they pushed computing power to the altar.</p><p>But when the epidemic came along with inflation and rate hike, what we saw was that at the performance briefing in the second quarter, Nvidia Chief Financial Officer Kress blamed the thunderstorm on Azhai-the demand for game products suddenly slowed down. But the other half of what he didn't say explicitly was the world that he couldn't go back to:</p><p>Regarding the rights brought by computing power. The crash of cryptocurrency caused a large number of miners to announce \"surrender\" and suspend mining starting from June 7 because of the plummeting income. In 2022, at most, even Bitcoin will fall by two-thirds in half a year, and the computing power expenditure of miners can no longer cover the income of currency prices.</p><p>As for the beautiful imagination of computing power, although in the long run, the expansion of computing power will never end; However, in the short term, Nvidia will face Internet giants whose growth is slowing down around the world, as well as PC shipments that have been shrinking for many years. The sudden ban on U.S. data center exports has made Nvidia unspeakable.</p><p>What is left to Nvidia is a world that suspends growth and a world that begins to counter globalization.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1585097861883","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A grain of ash on Nvidia's head</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA grain of ash on Nvidia's head\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川研究所</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-03 08:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>At the just-opened World Artificial Intelligence Conference, no one cared whether Musk would speak amazingly this year, or whether the BAT Big Three would reunite to fight. All the whispering audiences cared about one thing-<b>Are Nvidia's A100 and H100 graphics cards really going to be cut off?</b>？</p><p><b>Once the supply of GPUs from Nvidia and AMD is cut off, it is tantamount to dragging the bottom of the pot for the development of the artificial intelligence industry</b>--Any real AI research institution has A100 and H100.</p><p><b>Nvidia has not had an easy time in the past year</b>, in the second quarter of 2022, Nvidia handed over a shocking financial report, and its revenue fell by 19% month-on-month. The game business, which supports the main revenue, fell by 44% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year.</p><p>The game of the largest business suffered a thunderstorm, the data center of the second largest business suffered a drain from the bottom of the United States, and Nvidia's stock price also continued to bottom out. Compared with the high point at the end of last year, Nvidia's stock price has now been cut by nearly half, with a market value of only US $377.4 billion.</p><p>Looking back a year ago, the story about Nvidia is still another set of narratives:</p><p>In April 2021, Nvidia held a \"metaverse Conference\". In the middle of the speech, CEO Huang Renxun was secretly replaced with a digital person, and almost no one noticed it. Three months later, 14 seconds of \"stealing the sky and changing the day\" was made public, and Nvidia successfully sealed the \"metaverse Giant\".</p><p>There is no doubt that in the technology industry, \"metaverse\" is the three most discussed words this year. Taking advantage of the trend, Nvidia's stock price has been booming all the way. In November, Nvidia's market value exceeded US $800 billion, making it the world's most valuable semiconductor company.</p><p>As metaverse's infrastructure, the computing power support of AI outlets, and the core productivity of virtual currency miners, Nvidia's performance this year was equally impressive: total revenue was US $26.914 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04aac5b05b0637eff403d850e750a843\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>14 seconds that are difficult to distinguish between true and false</p><p><b>In less than a year, what happened to Nvidia?</b></p><p><b>01. Rise: Computing power reverses life and death</b></p><p>To understand Nvidia's current situation, we must start with the relationship between Nvidia and computing power.</p><p>In Silicon Valley, few entrepreneurs can be as stubborn as Nvidia founder Huang Renxun, and his belief is simple:<b>Computing power is power</b>。</p><p>Under this belief, in 2010, Nvidia released a new generation graphics card-GTX480 with explosive performance and explosive heat. Someone has done a test. The working temperature of the GTX480 with full horsepower often soars to sixty or seventy degrees. If you are not careful, you will go to Yellow Springs with other components.</p><p>So what about that? Huang Renxun \"I want me to feel\", the greater the computing power, the better.</p><p>A year later, Nvidia released its latest graphics card, the GTX590. Soon after a foreign media ran the GTX590 at its maximum power, a blue smoke curled up from the circuit board, and the title of \"nuclear bomb\" of Nvidia graphics card has spread like wildfire since then.</p><p>These are just appetizers. When Nvidia introduced its successor GTX690, angry netizens directly added it to the encyclopedia entry of \"Aircraft Carrier Killer\". After watching it, the host of Gansu Satellite TV believed it and wrote it into the oral broadcast draft of the military program:</p><p>“<b>Especially the improved model equipped with GTX690 core graphics card, which can destroy an aircraft carrier battle group with one shot!</b>”</p><p>After the program was broadcast, Huang Renxun, a Silicon Valley madman, was once again crowned the \"Father of Two Bombs\" title.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac73479b1566947e38e4854795412516\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is false to blow up the aircraft carrier cluster with super computing power, but the dream of blowing up Nvidia's mobile terminal is real:</p><p>In 2011, with the decline of traditional PCs and the rise of smart phones, the trend of becoming a new generation of super terminals has gradually become clear: Nvidia, which is eager to show its talents in the field of smart phones, launched the world's first quad-core processor Tegra 3, which improved its performance by 3 times compared with the previous generation.</p><p>Propaganda is beautiful, isn't it? HTC, eager to reverse the decline of its smartphone business, believed it and chose to suffocate Nvidia's dream: in the latest flagship phone, it radically used Tegra 3.</p><p>As a result, the skinny camel turned into a feverish camel. The serious fever problem caused by Tegra 3's violent accumulation of computing power has become the last straw that crushed the recovery of HTC smartphones. Nvidia's journey to pursue the dream of mobile terminal has also come to an end for the time being.</p><p>Huang Renxun's paranoia about computing power brought Nvidia into a dead end at that time: the spontaneous combustion of graphics cards and the losing wave of smartphones once caused Nvidia's stock price to fall by nearly half.</p><p><b>02. Reversal: When computing power truly becomes power</b></p><p>But failure is also calculating power, and success is also calculating power. At a desperate juncture, Huang Renxun's belief that \"computing power changes the world\" was unexpectedly proved in the field of AI.</p><p>Before 2012, AI had experienced two waves, both of which were unsustainable due to objective conditions. Simply put, the limitation of the first time is insufficient computing power, and the second time is too high cost.</p><p>Because before, AI recognition mostly relied on CPU.</p><p>CPU is suitable for complex general serial tasks and has built-in up to 16 powerful ALUs (arithmetic logic units). To translate, this is equivalent to a college student who can do calculus, with a good brain but low efficiency. In 2010, AI pioneer Andrew Ng had to spend 16,000 CPU processors in order to make the AI program identify a cat, which is equivalent to 40 or 50 Internet cafes firing at full power at the same time, costing about 1 million US dollars.</p><p>The GPU is suitable for simple and specific parallel tasks. It has thousands of simple ALUs built in, which is approximately equal to hundreds of primary school students who can only do addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. The brain is a bit poor, but it wins because of its high efficiency.</p><p>So to sum up, handling complex logical tasks and serving as the commander's work is exclusive to the CPU; But GPU is most suitable for simple and repetitive things that accumulate computing power violently.</p><p>Where do you need to build up computing power violently? In the past, the only recognized application scenarios for GPUs were games. But Huang Renxun's belief is that computing power can change the world: in order to better utilize GPU computing power, Nvidia also launched a tool software called CUDA to lower the threshold of GPU programming, and invested 6 years regardless of cost.</p><p>This made AI scholars finally realize the power of GPU computing power.</p><p>For scenarios such as AI deep learning, \"100 primary school students' brains\" are enough-this means that GPUs with high computing power are obviously more suitable. After Andrew Ng replaced the AI program of that year with GPU, he was surprised to find that only 12 were needed.</p><p>This major discovery, combined with software breakthroughs, detonated the third wave of AI development in the world, and also pushed Nvidia, which has both an AI software and hardware ecosystem, to the top of the mountain: Today, the world's largest Amazon public cloud and BAT's AI research, the bottom layer It is inseparable from the technical support of Nvidia GPU.</p><p><b>Wherever there is AI, everyone mentions Nvidia</b>。 As Huang Renxun firmly believes, computing power has really changed the world this time.</p><p>Coincidentally, cryptocurrencies that emerged at the same time were also highly dependent on GPU computing power. With the blessing of many outlets, graphics cards are \"hard to find\" all the year round, and Huang Renxun, the \"boss\", has become a veritable \"godfather of graphics cards\". The \"believers\" of the graphics card once recorded these glorious deeds in the form of Historical Records, and finally commented:</p><p>\"There is Renxun first and then there is Heaven, and the graphics card is abusing the gods.\"</p><p><b>03. Coronation: GPU devour everything</b></p><p>At the GTC conference in 2019, Huang Renxun once again publicly mentioned his belief in computing power: \"Even if Moore's Law comes to an end, GPUs will be omnipotent.\" Finally, in 2021, his belief has been generally recognized by the secondary market. Sister Mumu and other investment giants have increased their investment successively, and the secondary market has been triumphing all the way, and the market value has tripled a year.</p><p>This mainly comes from two increases and two new narratives.</p><p>The growth comes from two main businesses, namely games and data centers.</p><p>Demand for gaming increased due to extended stay-at-home hours caused by the pandemic. According to Newzoo's statistics, the global gaming market grew by 1.4% in 2021. If you need to run 3A-level games on the PC side, a discrete graphics card is an essential tool. At present, there are almost only two choices, Nvidia and AMD. Among them, Nvidia has an absolute advantage in market share-in the third quarter of the same year, Nvidia took 83% of the market.</p><p>However, in addition to the game house, there is a larger group snapping up game graphics cards.</p><p>In 2021, the cryptocurrency market will usher in a new round of bull market: Bitcoin has more than 2 times, Ethereum has 4 times, and LUNA, which later triggered an earthquake in the currency circle, has risen more than 80 times. The market boom has spawned a large number of \"crypto miners\". Mining is a means of producing cryptocurrency, which relies on powerful GPU computing power. The mining machine made of top-of-the-line game graphics card has become a veritable \"gold shovel\", and computing power has also become synonymous with \"wealth\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5532287cd6f926f8872e91441dd9483a\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bitcoin soars</p><p>The resulting surge in demand has led to an increase in the volume and price of Nvidia's graphics cards, and the game business has also taken off, creating revenue of US $3.2 billion in the third quarter of 2021, and a year-on-year growth of 42%.</p><p>At the same time, the global data center industry also ushered in spring: the scale reached US $76.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, and the growth rate will remain above 10% in the next few years. [5] Data centers are the product of the wave of AI development, which means that Nvidia, which owns both CUDA and GPU, has won again. Among the world's top 500 supercomputers, 342 are served by Nvidia.</p><p>This trend was also quickly reflected in Nvidia's financial report: In 2021, data center revenue increased by 124% year-on-year, and surpassed games in the first quarter of the following year to become a new revenue pillar.</p><p>While the financial report performance is rising gratifying, the two new narratives brought by Nvidia have also whetted the appetite of the secondary market.</p><p>The first to bear the brunt was one of the biggest outlets of the year-metaverse.</p><p>At the end of 2021, Huang Renxun demonstrated a new generation of tooling software Omniverse, calling it \"metaverse for engineers.\" In the future envisioned by Nvidia, everything in the real universe can be installed into the virtual world with the help of Omniverse and GPU computing power, providing people with a key to the metaverse. On the day of the release, Nvidia's stock price reached a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b14b53638f1068c41b8107020948235\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Another new narrative comes from ARM: In 2021, Nvidia is steadily advancing matters related to the acquisition of ARM from Japan's SoftBank.</p><p>ARM is a technology patent provider in the field of mobile chips. More than 90% of smartphones use ARM architecture. Once the acquisition is completed, Huang Renxun has the opportunity to unify the PC and mobile markets, and the only legend of Nvidia will be left in the world.</p><p>Everything seems to be moving towards<b>Old immortal computing power, boundless magic power</b>The direction of.</p><p><b>04. Shui Inverse: Has the super power of computing power disappeared?</b></p><p>Computing power is power, and computing power determines the ability of AI. After more than ten years, not only Nvidia's believers understand, but also the U.S. government understands:</p><p>In this quarter alone, Nvidia's sales of these two chips exported to China have reached US $400 million. You know, in the latest fiscal quarter, Nvidia's total revenue was only US $6.7 billion, and he must not want to lose the Chinese market.</p><p><b>But Nvidia's water reversal is more than just that.</b></p><p>At the beginning of this year, before the dream of unifying the rivers and lakes had begun, Nvidia's ARM acquisition road suffered joint attacks from governments and global technology giants:</p><p>First, in 2021, the four technology giants Qualcomm, Microsoft, Intel, and Amazon formed an \"anti-Nvidia alliance\" to jointly provide monopoly evidence to regulatory agencies in various countries in an attempt to stop the acquisition.</p><p>Later, when Huang Renxun submitted acquisition applications to various countries, the global regulatory agencies responded exactly the same-delay. Among them, the reason given by the European Union is the most wonderful: because there is a summer vacation.</p><p>On February 8, 2022, Nvidia finally received a reply from the regulatory agencies of the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union. Unfortunately, the answer was no. The reason was that it was worried about the possible serious monopoly in the global semiconductor industry. By then, the neutrality of ARM will disappear.</p><p>For Huang Renxun<b>, the failure of ARM acquisition was just the beginning, and soon after, the graphics card speculation market also collapsed</b>。</p><p>In March 2021, CCTV sent reporters to \"undercover\" the digital market, exposing the path of graphics card profiteers to get rich. But a year later, when I revisited my old place, there was a completely opposite scene in front of me. Seeing the reporter who made an unannounced visit, the merchants in Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen, couldn't hide their grief, bluntly saying that they took the order at a high price, and now they will lose three or four thousand yuan for every video card they sell. At the most extreme moment, the graphics card dropped by 1,000 yuan a month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302a2d8cf0eeb0cd244cef3ed5f58083\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In August this year, the RTX30 series graphics cards, which used to be \"hard to find a card\", have successfully broken, and the price of second-hand graphics cards on eBay has generally been halved.</p><p>Even so, there are still many voices calling for \"don't take over\"-there is still room for further bottoming out in prices. Wait for the party to shout the slogan \"If you don't buy it, I won't buy it, the graphics card will drop by 200 tomorrow\", while figuring out when the profiteers who hoarded goods at high prices last year will go to the rooftop to perform \"trapeze\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42454d54a829cc393282f8a8629a717a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In just one year, the demand for graphics cards has shrunk sharply. In the past, graphics cards with both volume and price rising suddenly became unsalable, which became the chief culprit of Nvidia's performance thunderstorm. In the second quarter, the revenue of the game business (graphics card) was only about US $6.7 billion, a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decrease of more than 30%. Affected by inventory problems, Nvidia's gross profit margin also fell to 43.7%, far lower than the previous forecast of 65.1%.</p><p>In just one year, the myth of GPU computing power suddenly lost its magic?</p><p><b>05. A grain of ash of the times falls on Nvidia's head</b></p><p>But unlike Nvidia's failures in the past, Huang Renxun didn't do anything wrong this time, but times have changed.</p><p>IC Insights, a market research company, has compiled a statistics: Since the 1990s, the rise and fall of the semiconductor industry has been almost highly bound to the trend of global GDP.</p><p>The logic behind it is not difficult to understand,<b>Only when people's pockets get bigger and bigger day by day will they care which one is faster, Nvidia 3090TI or AMD 6950XT</b>, game houses will switch to new computers for a better experience, crypto miners firmly believe that \"computing power is wealth\" are frantically hoarding graphics cards, even scholars have sufficient budgets to build data centers for research, multiple waves alternate, everyone Together, they pushed computing power to the altar.</p><p>But when the epidemic came along with inflation and rate hike, what we saw was that at the performance briefing in the second quarter, Nvidia Chief Financial Officer Kress blamed the thunderstorm on Azhai-the demand for game products suddenly slowed down. But the other half of what he didn't say explicitly was the world that he couldn't go back to:</p><p>Regarding the rights brought by computing power. The crash of cryptocurrency caused a large number of miners to announce \"surrender\" and suspend mining starting from June 7 because of the plummeting income. In 2022, at most, even Bitcoin will fall by two-thirds in half a year, and the computing power expenditure of miners can no longer cover the income of currency prices.</p><p>As for the beautiful imagination of computing power, although in the long run, the expansion of computing power will never end; However, in the short term, Nvidia will face Internet giants whose growth is slowing down around the world, as well as PC shipments that have been shrinking for many years. The sudden ban on U.S. data center exports has made Nvidia unspeakable.</p><p>What is left to Nvidia is a world that suspends growth and a world that begins to counter globalization.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IBQCC7No2YTvi5ArfwVg2Q\">远川研究所</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4543":"AI","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IBQCC7No2YTvi5ArfwVg2Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101174405","content_text":"刚刚开幕的世界人工智能大会上，已经没有人关心今年到底马斯克会语出惊人，还是会BAT三巨头重聚斗法，所有交头接耳的观众就关心一件事——英伟达的A100、H100显卡，真的要断供了吗？一旦英伟达和AMD的GPU被断供，无异于对人工智能产业发展的釜底抽薪——任何一个真正的AI研究机构，都有A100与H100的身影。最近一年里，英伟达的日子并不好过，2022年二季度，英伟达交出一份令人大跌眼镜的财报，营收环比下滑了19%。支撑起主要营收的游戏业务，更是环比下降44%，同比下降33%。第一大业务游戏暴雷，第二大业务数据中心遭遇美国釜底抽薪，英伟达的股价也持续探底。相比于去年年底的高点，英伟达的股价如今已腰斩近一半，市值仅剩3774亿美金。而回顾一年前，关于英伟达的故事，还是另一套叙事：2021年4月，英伟达召开了一场“元宇宙发布会”。演讲到一半，CEO黄仁勋被偷偷替换成了数字人，几乎无人察觉。三个月后14秒的“偷天换日”被公之于众，英伟达成功加封“元宇宙巨头”。毫无疑问，科技产业中，“元宇宙”是这一年被讨论最多的三个字。趁着风口，英伟达股价一路飘红。11月，英伟达市值突破8000亿美元，一跃成为全球市值最高的半导体企业。作为元宇宙的基建、AI风口的算力支撑、虚拟币矿工的核心生产力，这一年，英伟达的业绩同样亮眼：总营收为269.14亿美元，同比增长61%。真假难辨的14秒一年不到的时间，关于英伟达，到底发生了什么？01、崛起：算力逆转生死要读懂英伟达的当下，还要从英伟达与算力的关系说起。在硅谷，很少有企业家能固执到英伟达创始人黄仁勋这般地步，而他的信仰很简单：算力就是权力。在这样的信念之下，2010年，英伟达发布了一款拥有爆炸级性能，同时也拥有爆炸级发热的新一代显卡——GTX480。有人做过测试，马力全开的GTX480，工作温度动辄飙升到六、七十度，一不小心，就带着其它元器件一同共赴黄泉。这又如何?黄仁勋“我要我觉得”，算力就是越大越好。一年后，英伟达发布最新显卡GTX590。一家国外媒体才将GTX590最大功率运行不久，一道青烟就从电路板上袅袅冒出，英伟达显卡“核弹”的称谓，自此不胫而走。这些只是前菜。当英伟达端出后继款GTX690时，怒其不争的网友直接将其加入到“航母杀手”的百科词条。甘肃卫视的主持人看完后信以为真，将其写到了军事节目的口播稿中：“特别是搭载GTX690核显卡的改进型号，一发即可摧毁一个航母战斗群！”节目播出后，硅谷狂人黄仁勋，再次被加冕“两弹元勋”桂冠。超大算力炸毁航母集群是假的，但是炸飞英伟达的移动端梦想是真的：2011年，传统PC式微，智能机崛起，成为新一代超级终端的趋势已经逐渐明朗：急于在智能机领域大展身手的英伟达推出了全球首个四核处理器Tegra 3，相比前代性能提升了3倍。宣传很美好对不对？急于逆转智能手机业务颓势的HTC信了，选择为英伟达的梦想窒息一把：在最新的旗舰机中，激进地用上了Tegra 3。结果瘦死的骆驼，变成了发烧的骆驼。Tegra 3暴力堆砌算力换来的严重发热问题，成了压死HTC智能机复苏的最后一根稻草，英伟达的逐梦移动端之旅，也自此暂时画上了句号。黄仁勋对算力的偏执，把当时的英伟达带入了死胡同：显卡自燃与败走智能手机浪潮，一度让英伟达的股价跌去近一半。02、逆转：当算力真正成为权力但败也算力，成也算力。绝境关头，黄仁勋“算力改变世界”的信仰，意外在AI领域得到了佐证。2012年之前，AI曾经历过两轮浪潮，两次都因为客观条件制约而难以为继。简单来说，第一次的限制条件是算力不足，第二次则是成本过高。因为此前AI识别多仰赖CPU。CPU适合复杂的通用串行任务，内置最多16个强力ALU（算术逻辑单元），翻译一下，这相当于一个能做微积分的大学生，脑子好但效率偏低。2010年，AI先驱吴恩达为了让AI程序识别出一只猫，不得不花费了16000个CPU处理器，相当于四五十个网吧同时火力全开，花费成本大约100万美元。而GPU适合简单特定的并行任务，内置数千个简单ALU，约等于数百个只能做加减乘除的小学生，脑子差了点，但赢在效率高。所以总结一下就是，处理复杂的逻辑任务，担任指挥官的活儿，得CPU专属；但做简单重复、暴力堆砌算力的事情，GPU最合适不过。哪里需要暴力堆砌算力？过去，GPU公认的应用场景仅有游戏。但黄仁勋的信仰可是算力能改变世界：为了让GPU算力被更好的发挥，英伟达还推出了一款名为CUDA的工具软件，借此降低GPU编程门槛，并不计成本投入了6年。这让AI学者们最终意识到了GPU算力的强大。对AI深度学习等场景而言，“100个小学生大脑”已经够用——这意味着高算力的GPU明显更合适。吴恩达将当年的AI程序换成GPU后，惊讶地发现只需要12个。这一重大发现，结合软件突破，引爆了全球第三次AI发展浪潮，也把同时拥有AI软硬件生态的英伟达，彻底推向山巅：今天全球最大的亚马逊公有云、BAT的AI研究，底层都离不开英伟达GPU的技术支持。凡有AI处，无人不提英伟达。正如黄仁勋所坚信的那般，这回算力真的改变了世界。巧合的是，同时期兴起的加密货币同样高度依赖GPU算力。诸多风口加持之下，显卡常年“一卡难求”，“霸总”黄仁勋成为名副其实的“显卡教父”。显卡吧的“信众”们曾用《史记》的形式记录下这些光辉事迹，并在最后评价道：“先有仁勋后有天，显卡在手虐神仙。”03、加冕：GPU吞噬一切2019年的GTC大会上，黄仁勋又一次公开提及了他对算力的信仰：“就算摩尔定律走向终结，GPU也将无所不能。”终于在2021年，他的信仰得到了二级市场的普遍认可。木头姐等投资大牛先后加码，二级市场一路高歌猛进，市值一年翻3倍。这背后主要源自两个增长和两个全新叙事。增长来自两大主营业务，即游戏与数据中心。由于疫情导致的居家时间延长，游戏需求增加。据Newzoo的统计，2021年全球游戏市场增长了1.4%。如需运行PC端的3A级游戏，独立显卡是必备工具，当下几乎只有英伟达和AMD两个选择，其中英伟达在市占率上有着绝对优势——同年第三季度英伟达吃下了83%的市场。不过，游戏宅之外，还有一个更庞大的群体在抢购游戏显卡。2021年，加密货币市场迎来新一轮牛市：比特币涨了2倍多，以太坊4倍，而后来引发币圈地震的LUNA涨了超80倍。市场繁荣催生了大量“加密矿工”。挖矿是产出加密货币的手段，仰赖强大的GPU算力。由顶配游戏显卡制成的矿机，成为了名副其实的“淘金铲”，算力也成了“财富”的代名词。比特币暴涨由此带来的需求暴增，导致英伟达显卡量价齐升，游戏业务也顺势起飞，在2021年三季度创造了32亿美元的营收，以及42%的同比增长。同一时间，全球数据中心行业也迎来了春天：规模达到了765.6亿美元，同比增长13.5%，且未来数年增速仍将保持在10%以上。[5]数据中心是AI发展浪潮的产物，这意味着同时坐拥CUDA和GPU的英伟达又一次赢麻了。全球Top500的超级计算机中，用英伟达服务的就有342台。这一趋势也很快反映到英伟达财报中：2021年，数据中心营收同比增长了124%，并于次年第一季度超越游戏，成为新的营收支柱。财报业绩涨势喜人的同时，英伟达带来的两个新叙事，也让二级市场吊足了胃口。首当其冲的，便是当年最大的风口之一——元宇宙。2021年底，黄仁勋展示了新一代工具软件Omniverse，称其为“工程师的元宇宙”。在英伟达设想的未来中，凡是真实宇宙有的东西，都能借助Omniverse和GPU算力，装进虚拟世界，给人们提供了一把通往元宇宙的钥匙。发布当天，英伟达股价迎来历史新高。另一个新叙事则来自ARM：2021年，英伟达正稳步推进从日本软银手中收购ARM相关事宜。ARM是移动芯片领域的技术专利提供商，超九成智能手机都使用了ARM架构。一旦完成收购，黄仁勋有机会一统PC和移动市场，江湖从此将仅剩英伟达的传说。一切似乎都在朝着算力老仙，法力无边的方向进发。04、水逆：算力的超能力消失了吗？算力就是权力，算力决定AI的能力，经过十多年，不仅英伟达的信众明白了，美国政府也明白了：仅仅这个季度，英伟达向中国出口的这两款芯片的销售额，就已经达到4亿美元。要知道，最近一个财季，英伟达总营收仅有67亿美元，他一定不想失去中国市场。但英伟达的水逆，绝不仅仅如此。今年年初，一统江湖的美梦尚未开启，英伟达的ARM收购之路，就遭受到了来自各国政府以及全球科技巨头的联合狙击：先是2021年，高通、微软、英特尔、亚马逊四家科技巨头结成“反英伟达同盟”，共同向各国监管机构提供垄断证据，试图阻止收购案。再后来，黄仁勋给各个国家递交收购申请时，全球监管机构的反应如出一辙——拖。其中欧盟给出的理由最为奇葩：因为要放暑假。到了2022年2月8日，英伟达终于得到了美国、英国和欧盟三地监管机构的回复，可惜答案却是拒绝，理由是担忧全球半导体行业可能产生的严重垄断，届时，ARM的中立性将荡然无存。对黄仁勋来说，ARM收购失败只是个开始，不久后，显卡炒作市场也出现了崩塌。2021年3月，央视派出记者“卧底”数码市场，揭露了显卡奸商的暴富之路。可一年后故地重游，眼前却出现了一副截然相反的景象。见到暗访的记者，深圳华强北的商户难掩悲痛之情，直言在高价时接了盘，如今每卖一张显卡就要亏三四千元。最极端的时刻，显卡一个月跌1000元。今年8月，过去“一卡难求”的RTX30系显卡已成功破发，eBay上二手显卡的价格也普遍对半腰斩。即便如此，依旧有不少声音呼吁“别接盘”——价格仍有进一步探底的空间。等等党们一边高喊着“你不买我不买，显卡明天降二百”的口号，一边盘算着去年高价囤货的奸商何时走上天台表演“空中飞人”。仅仅一年时间，显卡需求急剧萎缩。过去量价齐升的显卡突然滞销，成为英伟达业绩暴雷的罪魁祸首。二季度游戏业务（显卡）的营收仅有67亿美元左右，同比、环比都下跌了超3成。受到库存问题影响，英伟达毛利率也跌至43.7%，远低于此前预测的65.1%。仅仅一年时间，GPU算力神话，突然失去了魔力？05、时代的一粒灰，落在英伟达的头上但和过去英伟达的失败不同，这一次黄仁勋并没有做错什么，只是时代变了。市场研究公司IC Insights统计过一份数据：从90年代开始，半导体产业的涨跌几乎和全球GDP走势高度绑定。背后的逻辑不难理解，只有当人们的腰包一天比一天鼓，才会在乎英伟达 3090TI和AMD 6950XT到底哪个更快，游戏宅才会为了更好的体验换台新电脑，加密矿工才坚信“算力即财富”疯狂囤入显卡，连学者都有充足的预算，搭建数据中心做研究，多股浪潮交替，所有人一同把算力推上了神坛。但是当疫情伴随着通胀与加息一同到来，我们看到的，则是二季度的业绩说明会上，英伟达首席财务官克雷斯将暴雷归咎于阿宅——游戏产品的需求突然放缓。但他没有明说的另外半句，则是那个已经回不去的世界：关于算力的带来的权利。加密货币的崩盘，使得6月7日开始，大批矿工因为收入暴跌，宣布“投降”暂停挖矿。2022年，最多时，就连比特币都在半年时间跌去三分之二，矿工的算力支出不再能覆盖币价的收益。而关于算力的美好想象，尽管长期来看，算力的扩张永无止境；然而短期内，英伟达要面对的则是全球范围内增长变慢的互联网巨头们，以及连续多年缩水的PC出货，突如其来的美国数据中心出口禁令更是让英伟达有苦说不出。留给英伟达的，是一个暂缓增长的世界，一个开始逆全球化的世界。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939251438,"gmtCreate":1662122649625,"gmtModify":1676537002565,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939251438","repostId":"1103083207","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103083207","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662019756,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103083207?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 16:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Which U.S. stocks do asset management giants favor in the second quarter amid the weakening market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103083207","media":"智通财经网","summary":"来看看这些“聪明钱”都买了什么。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhuang Lijia</p><p>In the past two weeks, many asset management giants have published their respective second-quarter position reports (13F). This article will discuss including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>, Bridgewater Fund and other 12 asset management giants' second-quarter position reports to take a look at what these \"smart money\" bought.</p><p>1. Under the weakening of the market, the market value of positions held by asset management giants has generally shrunk</p><p>Judging from the data released by various asset management giants, except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>In addition, the total market value of the positions held by other asset management giants in the second quarter declined compared with the first quarter. Among them, the total market value of Tiger Global's positions in the second quarter, known as the \"technology stock hunter\", was close to \"halved\" from the previous quarter. Other asset management giants with better performance include: the total market value of Jinglin Asset's positions fell by less than 4% month-on-month, and the total market value of Bridgewater Fund's positions fell by less than 5% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad3d89fa9ff826b4410e58b5acf337b\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The shrinking market value of the positions of asset management giants is basically consistent with the performance of the overall market. Data show that in the second quarter, the S&P 500 index fell 16.45%, while the Nasdaq index fell 22.44%.</p><p>2. Technology stocks are still favored</p><p>Although the trend of U.S. technology stocks in the second quarter was not good, the position reports of many asset management giants show that technology stocks are still their key positions.</p><p>Among the second quarter holdings of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, technology stocks accounted for the highest proportion, at 22.35%. The top five holdings are all technology stocks, followed by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>(MSFT.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>(GOOG.US)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>(NVDA.US) are BlackRock's sixth and tenth largest holdings respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f577b5e43aca056f22ac2f0ae24f4c7\" tg-width=\"1294\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple is also the largest holding of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, accounting for 42.20% of the portfolio. It is worth mentioning that Berkshire Hathaway also increased its holdings of about 3.8 million Apple shares in the third quarter. At the same time, Apple is also Invesco Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>, Morgan Stanley's second largest holding,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The fourth largest holding stock.</p><p>In addition to Apple, Microsoft is also favored by asset management giants. Microsoft is JPMorgan Chase's top holding, and its holdings in the second quarter increased by 10% compared with the previous quarter. Invesco Group, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley all regard Microsoft as their largest holdings. Among them, Morgan Stanley significantly increased its holdings of Microsoft stock in the second quarter, an increase of 50% from the previous quarter. Goldman Sachs also increased its holdings in Microsoft by 13% in the second quarter, making Microsoft its third largest holding.</p><p>Among the top five holdings held by \"technology stock hunter\" Tiger Global in the second quarter, Microsoft and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>(META.US) ranked second and fifth respectively. It is worth mentioning that Tiger Global's position in Meta Platforms rose from tenth in the previous quarter to fifth, a significant increase of 15% from the number of positions held in the previous quarter. In addition, Tiger Global also opened a position in Alphabet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53fedca5544b2bcd89d98b8d5233cf78\" tg-width=\"1335\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bridgewater Fund's top five buying targets also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MA\">MasterCard</a>(MA.US), Alphabet and Meta Platforms, three technology stocks, the fund also opened a long position in Amazon (AMZN.US) in the second quarter.</p><p>Although technology stocks generally suffered heavy blows in the second quarter, the strong rebound of U.S. stocks in July seems to prove the \"wise decision\" of asset management giants to increase their positions in technology stocks. Take Apple, which sits on the \"throne\" of technology stocks, as an example. In the case of poor overall performance of the market, Apple's stock price fell to a low of $128.86 on June 16. However, on August 18, Apple's stock price rebounded about 34% from the June low to above $174, which is less than 5% short of the stock's all-time high of about $182 set in January this year.</p><p>However, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made hawkish remarks at the global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, the \"head-on confrontation\" between technology stocks and U.S. bond yields may become more intense, which may lead to a sharp increase in technology stocks not long ago. Asset management companies are facing huge losses. Analysts believe that technology stocks sensitive to interest rates may sell off again in the future, as almost every sign indicates that Powell will stick to his tough stance given the high global prices of goods and services.</p><p>Soaring interest rates have increased funding costs for tech companies. That's not a problem for cash-flow-rich tech companies like Apple and Microsoft, though, and fundamentally sound tech stocks tend to have solid profitability, healthy balance sheets, and the ability to navigate deflationary trends. But for those unprofitable technology companies that are constantly burning money in pursuit of rapid growth, the risk has risen sharply.</p><p>3. Pharmaceutical, energy, and daily consumer stocks each have their own merits</p><p>In BlackRock's second-quarter position report, from the perspective of changes in position ratios, its top five buying targets include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">United Health</a>Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck & Co</a>(MRK.US), Pfizer (PFE.US) four pharmaceutical stocks, and the other is an energy stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>(XOM.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91529edbcdf724d3ec71ea03549b662\" tg-width=\"396\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>It is also the second largest holding of Bridgewater Fund. The fund also significantly increased its holdings of CVS Health (CVS.US) in the second quarter. Morgan Stanley also increased its holdings of UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson in the second quarter.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase also prefers pharmaceutical stocks. Its top ten holdings include three pharmaceutical stocks: UnitedHealth, AbbVie (ABBV.US) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US). Among them, the number of positions held by UnitedHealth is higher than that of the previous quarter. An increase of 20%, the number of positions held by AbbVie and Bristol-Myers Squibb also increased slightly from the previous quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c76e02855a9d2091d0fe277347886c\" tg-width=\"1335\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>It prefers energy stocks. Four of its top five holdings are energy stocks, namely Cheniere Energy (CQP.US), Energy Transfer (ET.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPLX\">MPLX LP</a>(MPLX.US) and Enterprise Products (EPD.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1670c57df8eeabe788af2f0a29a9ea34\" tg-width=\"1333\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Energy stocks that have received much attention this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>(OXY.US) unsurprisingly became Berkshire Hathaway's largest buy target in the second quarter. Berkshire Hathaway has significantly increased its holdings of Occidental Petroleum this year and submitted an application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to buy more Occidental Petroleum shares on July 11. Currently, Berkshire Hathaway owns 188.5 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, accounting for a shareholding ratio of 20.2%, exceeding the 20% consolidation threshold.</p><p>In addition to Occidental Petroleum, Berkshire Hathaway also significantly increased its holdings in the second quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>(CVX.US), the number of holdings increased by 316% from the previous quarter, making the latter Berkshire Hathaway's fourth largest holding. Some market analysts believe that Buffett has always favored traditional oil stocks, and traditional energy is still a long-term rigid demand in the future. Especially after investment restrictions, leading companies have followed the logic of increasing concentration, financial data is improving, and the overall valuation level is also improving with the increase.</p><p>Daily consumer stocks captured the \"heart\" of Bridgewater Fund. Among the top ten holdings held by Bridgewater in the second quarter, there are as many as five daily consumer stocks, namely Procter & Gamble (PG.US), Coca-Cola (KO.US), PepsiCo (PEP.US), Costco (COST.US) and Walmart (WMT.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39a4d9339453ef1453aee421b14e2a5\" tg-width=\"1295\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which U.S. stocks do asset management giants favor in the second quarter amid the weakening market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich U.S. stocks do asset management giants favor in the second quarter amid the weakening market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-01 16:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhuang Lijia</p><p>In the past two weeks, many asset management giants have published their respective second-quarter position reports (13F). This article will discuss including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>, Bridgewater Fund and other 12 asset management giants' second-quarter position reports to take a look at what these \"smart money\" bought.</p><p>1. Under the weakening of the market, the market value of positions held by asset management giants has generally shrunk</p><p>Judging from the data released by various asset management giants, except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>In addition, the total market value of the positions held by other asset management giants in the second quarter declined compared with the first quarter. Among them, the total market value of Tiger Global's positions in the second quarter, known as the \"technology stock hunter\", was close to \"halved\" from the previous quarter. Other asset management giants with better performance include: the total market value of Jinglin Asset's positions fell by less than 4% month-on-month, and the total market value of Bridgewater Fund's positions fell by less than 5% month-on-month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad3d89fa9ff826b4410e58b5acf337b\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The shrinking market value of the positions of asset management giants is basically consistent with the performance of the overall market. Data show that in the second quarter, the S&P 500 index fell 16.45%, while the Nasdaq index fell 22.44%.</p><p>2. Technology stocks are still favored</p><p>Although the trend of U.S. technology stocks in the second quarter was not good, the position reports of many asset management giants show that technology stocks are still their key positions.</p><p>Among the second quarter holdings of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, technology stocks accounted for the highest proportion, at 22.35%. The top five holdings are all technology stocks, followed by<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(AAPL.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>(MSFT.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>(AMZN.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>(GOOG.US)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>(TSLA.US) with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>(NVDA.US) are BlackRock's sixth and tenth largest holdings respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f577b5e43aca056f22ac2f0ae24f4c7\" tg-width=\"1294\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple is also the largest holding of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, accounting for 42.20% of the portfolio. It is worth mentioning that Berkshire Hathaway also increased its holdings of about 3.8 million Apple shares in the third quarter. At the same time, Apple is also Invesco Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>, Morgan Stanley's second largest holding,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The fourth largest holding stock.</p><p>In addition to Apple, Microsoft is also favored by asset management giants. Microsoft is JPMorgan Chase's top holding, and its holdings in the second quarter increased by 10% compared with the previous quarter. Invesco Group, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley all regard Microsoft as their largest holdings. Among them, Morgan Stanley significantly increased its holdings of Microsoft stock in the second quarter, an increase of 50% from the previous quarter. Goldman Sachs also increased its holdings in Microsoft by 13% in the second quarter, making Microsoft its third largest holding.</p><p>Among the top five holdings held by \"technology stock hunter\" Tiger Global in the second quarter, Microsoft and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>(META.US) ranked second and fifth respectively. It is worth mentioning that Tiger Global's position in Meta Platforms rose from tenth in the previous quarter to fifth, a significant increase of 15% from the number of positions held in the previous quarter. In addition, Tiger Global also opened a position in Alphabet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53fedca5544b2bcd89d98b8d5233cf78\" tg-width=\"1335\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bridgewater Fund's top five buying targets also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MA\">MasterCard</a>(MA.US), Alphabet and Meta Platforms, three technology stocks, the fund also opened a long position in Amazon (AMZN.US) in the second quarter.</p><p>Although technology stocks generally suffered heavy blows in the second quarter, the strong rebound of U.S. stocks in July seems to prove the \"wise decision\" of asset management giants to increase their positions in technology stocks. Take Apple, which sits on the \"throne\" of technology stocks, as an example. In the case of poor overall performance of the market, Apple's stock price fell to a low of $128.86 on June 16. However, on August 18, Apple's stock price rebounded about 34% from the June low to above $174, which is less than 5% short of the stock's all-time high of about $182 set in January this year.</p><p>However, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made hawkish remarks at the global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, the \"head-on confrontation\" between technology stocks and U.S. bond yields may become more intense, which may lead to a sharp increase in technology stocks not long ago. Asset management companies are facing huge losses. Analysts believe that technology stocks sensitive to interest rates may sell off again in the future, as almost every sign indicates that Powell will stick to his tough stance given the high global prices of goods and services.</p><p>Soaring interest rates have increased funding costs for tech companies. That's not a problem for cash-flow-rich tech companies like Apple and Microsoft, though, and fundamentally sound tech stocks tend to have solid profitability, healthy balance sheets, and the ability to navigate deflationary trends. But for those unprofitable technology companies that are constantly burning money in pursuit of rapid growth, the risk has risen sharply.</p><p>3. Pharmaceutical, energy, and daily consumer stocks each have their own merits</p><p>In BlackRock's second-quarter position report, from the perspective of changes in position ratios, its top five buying targets include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNH\">United Health</a>Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">Merck & Co</a>(MRK.US), Pfizer (PFE.US) four pharmaceutical stocks, and the other is an energy stock<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>(XOM.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91529edbcdf724d3ec71ea03549b662\" tg-width=\"396\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson Johnson</a>It is also the second largest holding of Bridgewater Fund. The fund also significantly increased its holdings of CVS Health (CVS.US) in the second quarter. Morgan Stanley also increased its holdings of UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson in the second quarter.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase also prefers pharmaceutical stocks. Its top ten holdings include three pharmaceutical stocks: UnitedHealth, AbbVie (ABBV.US) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US). Among them, the number of positions held by UnitedHealth is higher than that of the previous quarter. An increase of 20%, the number of positions held by AbbVie and Bristol-Myers Squibb also increased slightly from the previous quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c76e02855a9d2091d0fe277347886c\" tg-width=\"1335\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>It prefers energy stocks. Four of its top five holdings are energy stocks, namely Cheniere Energy (CQP.US), Energy Transfer (ET.US),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPLX\">MPLX LP</a>(MPLX.US) and Enterprise Products (EPD.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1670c57df8eeabe788af2f0a29a9ea34\" tg-width=\"1333\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Energy stocks that have received much attention this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>(OXY.US) unsurprisingly became Berkshire Hathaway's largest buy target in the second quarter. Berkshire Hathaway has significantly increased its holdings of Occidental Petroleum this year and submitted an application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to buy more Occidental Petroleum shares on July 11. Currently, Berkshire Hathaway owns 188.5 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, accounting for a shareholding ratio of 20.2%, exceeding the 20% consolidation threshold.</p><p>In addition to Occidental Petroleum, Berkshire Hathaway also significantly increased its holdings in the second quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>(CVX.US), the number of holdings increased by 316% from the previous quarter, making the latter Berkshire Hathaway's fourth largest holding. Some market analysts believe that Buffett has always favored traditional oil stocks, and traditional energy is still a long-term rigid demand in the future. Especially after investment restrictions, leading companies have followed the logic of increasing concentration, financial data is improving, and the overall valuation level is also improving with the increase.</p><p>Daily consumer stocks captured the \"heart\" of Bridgewater Fund. Among the top ten holdings held by Bridgewater in the second quarter, there are as many as five daily consumer stocks, namely Procter & Gamble (PG.US), Coca-Cola (KO.US), PepsiCo (PEP.US), Costco (COST.US) and Walmart (WMT.US).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39a4d9339453ef1453aee421b14e2a5\" tg-width=\"1295\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/785981.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/785981.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1103083207","content_text":"作者： 庄礼佳过去两周，许多资管巨头都公布了各自的第二季度持仓报告(13F)。本文将通过对包括伯克希尔哈撒韦、贝莱德、桥水基金等12家资管巨头的二季度持仓报告来看看这些“聪明钱”都买了什么。1、大盘走弱之下 资管巨头持仓市值普遍缩水从各家资管巨头公布的数据来看，除了摩根士丹利之外，其余资管巨头在二季度的持仓总市值均较一季度出现了下滑。其中，有着“科技股猎手”之称的老虎环球二季度持仓总市值环比接近“腰斩”。其余表现较好的资管巨头包括：景林资产持仓总市值环比下降不到4%，桥水基金持仓总市值环比下降不到5%。资管巨头们的持仓市值缩水与整体市场的表现基本一致。数据显示，在二季度，标普500指数下跌了16.45%，而纳斯达克指数则下跌了22.44%。2、科技股仍获青睐尽管美股科技股在二季度的走势并不好，但多家资管巨头的持仓报告显示，科技股仍是其重点持仓标的。全球最大资管贝莱德的二季度持仓中，科技股所占比例最高，为22.35%。前五大重仓股均为科技股，依次为苹果(AAPL.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、Alphabet(GOOGL.US)和谷歌(GOOG.US)，特斯拉(TSLA.US)与英伟达(NVDA.US)分别是贝莱德第六大、第十大重仓股。苹果同样是巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦的第一大重仓股，占投资组合比例高达42.20%。值得一提的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦还在第三季度增持了约380万股苹果股票。与此同时，苹果还是景顺集团、美国银行、高盛、摩根士丹利的第二大重仓股、摩根大通的第四大重仓股。除了苹果之外，微软同样获得资管巨头们的青睐。微软是摩根大通的头号重仓股，在二季度的持仓数量较上季度增加了10%。景顺集团、美国银行和摩根士丹利都将微软作为其第一大重仓股，其中摩根士丹利更是在二季度大幅增持了微软股票，较上季度持仓数量增加了50%。高盛也在二季度将微软的持仓数量增加了13%，使得微软成为其第三大重仓股。“科技股猎手”老虎环球的二季度持仓的前五大重仓股中，微软和Meta Platforms(META.US)分别位列第二和第五。值得一提的是，老虎环球对Meta Platforms的持仓比例从上季度排名第十升至第五，较上季度持仓数量大幅增持15%。此外，老虎环球还建仓了Alphabet。桥水基金的前五大买入标的中也包含万事达(MA.US)、Alphabet和Meta Platforms这三只科技股，该基金还在二季度建仓做多亚马逊(AMZN.US)。尽管科技股在二季度普遍遭遇重击，但美股在7月份的强势反弹似乎证明了资管巨头们加仓科技股的“英明决定”。以坐在科技股“王座”上的苹果为例，在大盘整体表现不佳的情况下，苹果股价在6月16日盘中跌至128.86美元的低点，但在8月18日时，苹果股价就较6月低点反弹约34%至174美元上方，距离该股在今年1月创下的约182美元的历史高点仅差不到5%的涨幅。然而，在美联储主席鲍威尔于杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上发表鹰派言论之后，科技股与美债收益率之间的“正面交锋”或将愈发激烈，这可能使得前不久大幅加仓科技股的资管公司们面临巨大亏损。分析人士认为，对利率水平敏感的科技类股票未来可能再度遭抛售，因为几乎所有迹象都表明，鉴于目前全球商品和服务价格仍居高不下，鲍威尔将坚持其强硬立场。不断飙升的利率增加了科技公司融资成本。不过，对于苹果和微软等现金流充裕的科技公司来说，这不是问题，基本面良好的科技股往往具有可靠的盈利能力、健康的资产负债表以及驾驭通缩趋势的能力。但对于那些不断烧钱追求快速增长的尚未盈利的科技公司来说，风险则大幅上行。3、医药类、能源类、日常消费类股各有千秋在贝莱德的二季度持仓报告中，从持仓比例变化来看，其前五大买入标的中就包括联合健康(UNH.US)、强生(JNJ.US)、默沙东(MRK.US)、辉瑞(PFE.US)四只医药类股，另外一只则是作为能源类股的埃克森美孚(XOM.US)。强生同样是桥水基金的第二大重仓股，该基金还在二季度大幅增持了CVS Health (CVS.US)。摩根士丹利在二季度也增持了联合健康和强生。摩根大通也偏好医药股，其前十大重仓股中就包含联合健康、艾伯维(ABBV.US)和百时美施贵宝(BMY.US)三只医药股，其中联合健康的持仓数量较上季度增加20%，艾伯维和百时美施贵宝的持仓数量也较上季度小幅增长。黑石更青睐能源股，其前五大重仓股中有四只是能源股，分别是Cheniere Energy(CQP.US)、Energy Transfer(ET.US)、MPLX LP(MPLX.US)以及Enterprise Products(EPD.US)。今年以来备受市场关注的能源股西方石油(OXY.US)不出意外地成为伯克希尔哈撒韦在二季度的第一大买入标的。伯克希尔哈撒韦在今年大幅增持了西方石油，并于7月11日向美国联邦能源管理委员会提交了购买更多西方石油股票的申请。目前，伯克希尔哈撒韦拥有1.885亿股西方石油股票，持股比例达到20.2%，超过了20%的并表门槛。除了西方石油以外，伯克希尔哈撒韦在二季度同样大幅增持了雪佛龙(CVX.US)，持仓数量较上季度增长316%，使得后者成为伯克希尔哈撒韦的第四大重仓股。有市场分析人士认为，巴菲特对传统石油股一直青睐有加，传统能源依旧是未来长期刚需，尤其是限制投资后，头部企业走集中度提升逻辑，财务数据向好，整体估值水位也随着提升。日常消费类股则俘获了桥水基金的“芳心”。桥水二季度持仓的前十大重仓股中有多达五只日常消费类股，分别是宝洁(PG.US)、可口可乐(KO.US)、百事可乐(PEP.US)、好市多(COST.US)和沃尔玛(WMT.US)。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939024204,"gmtCreate":1662029545612,"gmtModify":1676536628559,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939024204","repostId":"1188367124","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939024889,"gmtCreate":1662029534343,"gmtModify":1676536628551,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939024889","repostId":"2264251077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930883617,"gmtCreate":1661928836542,"gmtModify":1676536605810,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c28026b351cd650f55cc32175bda0dc6","width":"1242","height":"3008"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930883617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930880220,"gmtCreate":1661928489762,"gmtModify":1676536605757,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930880220","repostId":"1110193028","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110193028","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661907934,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110193028?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-31 09:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The winning rate of one lot of Biocyto-B is 50%, and the subscription of 14 lots is stable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110193028","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月31日，百奥赛图-B发布公告，公司全球发售2175.85万股股份，其中香港发售股份217.6万股，国际发售股份1958.25万股，另有15%超额配股权；发售价为每股发售股份25.22港元，每手买卖","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>August 31,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02315\">Biocyto-B</a>It was announced that the company sold 21.7585 million shares globally, including 2.176 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 19.5825 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option; The Offer Price is HK $25.22 per Offer Share, with a board lot of 500 shares;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>(b)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Are the Joint Sponsors; It is expected that the Shares will be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 1 September 2022.</p><p><b>The relevant data of Tiger Information Collation is as follows:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe1fe1e76e82123d9604aa786444204\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"824\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Distribution results</b></p><p>Group A has 500 shares per lot, with a winning rate of 50% for one lot, and 14 subscriptions are secure in one lot.</p><p>The head of Group B is 400 lots (200,000 shares), and 100 lots (50,000 shares) are allocated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a7b8874bfe77499a8c822eca293038\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"682\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91bc610c3945989c6040d6ea210986d\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Hong Kong Offer Shares have been slightly oversubscribed. A total of 3,524 valid applications were received to subscribe for a total of 12.9095 million Hong Kong Offer Shares, equivalent to approximately 5.93 times the total number of Hong Kong Offer Shares initially available for subscription under the Hong Kong Public Offering. The Offer Shares initially offered under the International Offering have been slightly oversubscribed, representing approximately 1.6 times the total number of Offer Shares initially available under the International Offering. Based on the offer price of HK $25.22 per share, and according to the cornerstone investment agreement, the cornerstone investors have subscribed for a total of 15.4785 million offer shares.</p><p>Based on the offer price of HK $25.22 per share, the net proceeds the company will receive from the global offering are estimated to be approximately HK $471.1 million (assuming the over-allotment option is not exercised). The company intends to use approximately 70% of the net proceeds to fund further clinical research and development of core products; Approximately 15% is used to fund the discovery and development of antibody drugs under the Thousand Mice Antibody Program; About 10% is used for pre-clinical and clinical development of other pipeline products; And about 5% will be used for working capital and other general corporate purposes. If the over-allotment option is exercised in full, the company will receive additional net proceeds of approximately HK $79.4 million for the 3,263,500 additional H shares to be issued and allotted due to the exercise of the over-allotment option.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The winning rate of one lot of Biocyto-B is 50%, and the subscription of 14 lots is stable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe winning rate of one lot of Biocyto-B is 50%, and the subscription of 14 lots is stable\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-31 09:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>August 31,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02315\">Biocyto-B</a>It was announced that the company sold 21.7585 million shares globally, including 2.176 million shares offered in Hong Kong, 19.5825 million shares offered internationally, and a 15% over-allotment option; The Offer Price is HK $25.22 per Offer Share, with a board lot of 500 shares;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>(b)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Are the Joint Sponsors; It is expected that the Shares will be listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange on 1 September 2022.</p><p><b>The relevant data of Tiger Information Collation is as follows:</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe1fe1e76e82123d9604aa786444204\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"824\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Distribution results</b></p><p>Group A has 500 shares per lot, with a winning rate of 50% for one lot, and 14 subscriptions are secure in one lot.</p><p>The head of Group B is 400 lots (200,000 shares), and 100 lots (50,000 shares) are allocated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a7b8874bfe77499a8c822eca293038\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"682\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91bc610c3945989c6040d6ea210986d\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Hong Kong Offer Shares have been slightly oversubscribed. A total of 3,524 valid applications were received to subscribe for a total of 12.9095 million Hong Kong Offer Shares, equivalent to approximately 5.93 times the total number of Hong Kong Offer Shares initially available for subscription under the Hong Kong Public Offering. The Offer Shares initially offered under the International Offering have been slightly oversubscribed, representing approximately 1.6 times the total number of Offer Shares initially available under the International Offering. Based on the offer price of HK $25.22 per share, and according to the cornerstone investment agreement, the cornerstone investors have subscribed for a total of 15.4785 million offer shares.</p><p>Based on the offer price of HK $25.22 per share, the net proceeds the company will receive from the global offering are estimated to be approximately HK $471.1 million (assuming the over-allotment option is not exercised). The company intends to use approximately 70% of the net proceeds to fund further clinical research and development of core products; Approximately 15% is used to fund the discovery and development of antibody drugs under the Thousand Mice Antibody Program; About 10% is used for pre-clinical and clinical development of other pipeline products; And about 5% will be used for working capital and other general corporate purposes. If the over-allotment option is exercised in full, the company will receive additional net proceeds of approximately HK $79.4 million for the 3,263,500 additional H shares to be issued and allotted due to the exercise of the over-allotment option.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"02315":"百奥赛图-B"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110193028","content_text":"8月31日，百奥赛图-B发布公告，公司全球发售2175.85万股股份，其中香港发售股份217.6万股，国际发售股份1958.25万股，另有15%超额配股权；发售价为每股发售股份25.22港元，每手买卖单位500股；中金公司及高盛为联席保荐人；预期股份将于2022年9月1日于联交所主板挂牌上市。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下：分配结果甲组每手500股，一手中签率50%，申购14手稳中一手。乙组头为400手（200000股），获配100手（50000股）。香港发售股份已获轻微超额认购。合共接获3524份有效申请，认购合共1290.95万股香港发售股份，相当于香港公开发售项下初步可供认购香港发售股份总数的约5.93倍。国际发售项下初步提呈发售的发售股份已获轻微超额认购，相当于国际发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约1.6倍。按发售价每股25.22港元计算，且根据基石投资协议，基石投资者已认购合共1547.85万股发售股份。按发售价每股25.22港元计算，公司将自全球发售收取的所得款项净额估计约为4.711亿港元(假设超额配股权未获行使)。公司拟将所得款项净额约70%用于为核心产品的进一步临床研发提供资金；约15%用于根据千鼠万抗计划为抗体药物发现及开发提供资金；约10%用于其他管线产品的临床前及临床开发；及约5%将用作营运资金及其他一般公司用途。倘超额配股权获悉数行使，则公司将就因超额配股权获行使而将予发行及配发的326.35万股额外H股收取额外所得款项净额约7940万港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02315":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930880827,"gmtCreate":1661928470972,"gmtModify":1676536605756,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930880827","repostId":"2263425809","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997463066,"gmtCreate":1661836309857,"gmtModify":1676536588579,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997463066","repostId":"1175791610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997178516,"gmtCreate":1661772245338,"gmtModify":1676536575730,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997178516","repostId":"2263144240","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994790190,"gmtCreate":1661689023214,"gmtModify":1676536561298,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994790190","repostId":"1175369432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175369432","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661663001,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175369432?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 13:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Ideal responds to the delayed delivery of L9: due to the delay in supply from the Sichuan range extender factory","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175369432","media":"中新经纬","summary":"据悉，理想L9此前预计8月底开始交付。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Niu Chaoge</p><p>On the 28th, in response to the delayed delivery of Ideal L9 reported online,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>The customer service staff confirmed, \"Due to the power shortage in Sichuan, the supply of Li Auto's range extender factory in Mianyang, Sichuan was delayed, resulting in the delay in the delivery of the ideal L9.\"</p><p>According to online information, Li Auto released the \"Ideal L9 Delivery Time Extension Announcement\" in the official App.</p><p>\"The announcement of delayed delivery will only be pushed to the car owner who placed the order, and other users will not receive it.\" The above customer service said.</p><p>According to screenshots posted by netizens, for users who show delivery within August in the Li Auto App, it is expected that the delivery will be carried out for users from August 30 to September 4. If the user can't deliver the car until September due to the delay of the vehicle, the official A 1,000 yuan fuel card will be provided as user compensation. The App shows users delivered in September, and the vehicle will still be delivered within September.</p><p>\"The specific extension time still requires communication between the owner and the delivery expert. I am not a user who has placed an order, and I can't see the announcement.\" The above customer service said.</p><p>It is reported that the Ideal L9 was previously expected to start delivery at the end of August. It is worth noting that in the second quarter financial report meeting, Ideal's senior executives gave pessimistic expectations for the delivery volume of 27,000 to 29,000 vehicles in the third quarter.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zxjw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ideal responds to the delayed delivery of L9: due to the delay in supply from the Sichuan range extender factory</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIdeal responds to the delayed delivery of L9: due to the delay in supply from the Sichuan range extender factory\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中新经纬</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-28 13:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Niu Chaoge</p><p>On the 28th, in response to the delayed delivery of Ideal L9 reported online,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>The customer service staff confirmed, \"Due to the power shortage in Sichuan, the supply of Li Auto's range extender factory in Mianyang, Sichuan was delayed, resulting in the delay in the delivery of the ideal L9.\"</p><p>According to online information, Li Auto released the \"Ideal L9 Delivery Time Extension Announcement\" in the official App.</p><p>\"The announcement of delayed delivery will only be pushed to the car owner who placed the order, and other users will not receive it.\" The above customer service said.</p><p>According to screenshots posted by netizens, for users who show delivery within August in the Li Auto App, it is expected that the delivery will be carried out for users from August 30 to September 4. If the user can't deliver the car until September due to the delay of the vehicle, the official A 1,000 yuan fuel card will be provided as user compensation. The App shows users delivered in September, and the vehicle will still be delivered within September.</p><p>\"The specific extension time still requires communication between the owner and the delivery expert. I am not a user who has placed an order, and I can't see the announcement.\" The above customer service said.</p><p>It is reported that the Ideal L9 was previously expected to start delivery at the end of August. It is worth noting that in the second quarter financial report meeting, Ideal's senior executives gave pessimistic expectations for the delivery volume of 27,000 to 29,000 vehicles in the third quarter.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml\">中新经纬</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd0e1f3d1695da2f5dabecfbac4bc57","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175369432","content_text":"作者：牛朝阁28日，针对网传理想L9延期交付一事，理想汽车客服人员给予了确认，“因四川地区电力紧张，理想汽车在四川绵阳的增程器工厂供应延迟，导致理想L9交付延期。”据网传信息显示，理想汽车在官方App中发布了“理想L9交付时间延期公告”。“延期交付的公告只会推送给下订单的车主，其他用户不会收到。”上述客服表示。根据网友晒出的截图，对于在理想汽车App内显示8月内交付的用户，预计将在8月30日至9月4日为用户进行交付，由于车辆延期导致用户9月才能交车的，官方将提供1000元油卡作为用户补偿。App内显示9月交付的用户，车辆则仍会在9月内完成交付。“具体的延期时间还需要车主和交付专家沟通。我也不是已下订单用户，也看不到公告。”上述客服表示。据悉，理想L9此前预计8月底开始交付。值得注意的是，在二季度财报会中，理想高层人员曾对三季度交付量给出了2.7万辆至2.9万辆的悲观预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"02015":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994143350,"gmtCreate":1661581759572,"gmtModify":1676536546425,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994143350","repostId":"2262937641","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995770329,"gmtCreate":1661524641163,"gmtModify":1676536535069,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995770329","repostId":"1152393159","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152393159","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661522465,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152393159?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 22:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell hawkish statement: The magnitude of September rate hike depends on overall data","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152393159","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月26日周五，在备受瞩目的美联储杰克逊霍尔年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示不会很快降息。鲍威尔称，9月加息规模取决于“整体”数据。7月份的较低通胀数据值得欢迎，但还不足以让央行相信通胀正在下降。美联储可","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, August 26, at the high-profile annual meeting of the Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that interest rates would not be cut anytime soon.</p><p>Powell said the size of September rate hike depends on \"overall\" data. Lower inflation data in July is welcome, but also<b>Not enough to convince central banks that inflation is falling</b>。 The Federal Reserve may require restrictive policy for some time. The longer-term neutral expected level of 2.25%-2.50% for the benchmark overnight rate is \"not the place to put the Fed to stop or pause its actions.\"</p><p>Powell hinted at<b>Trade slowing economic growth for determination to cool inflation.</b>He said that reducing inflation may require economic growth to remain below trend for a period of time. It will take some time to restore price stability, which requires<b>\"Forcefully\"</b>Use the tools of the central bank. Lessons from history show that,<b>Don't relax policy \"too early\"</b>。</p><p>Powell noted that the labor market is particularly strong but unbalanced; High inflation continues to spread. While the jobs environment is likely to soften somewhat, causing some pain for households, which are the unfortunate costs of bringing down inflation, the failure to restore price stability will mean even greater pain.</p><p>Regarding the economy, Powell said that the economy continues to show strong fundamental momentum. The U.S. economy has slowed down significantly, but the underlying momentum is strong. To some extent,<b>With further tightening of policy stance, it would be appropriate to slow down the pace of rate hike.</b></p><p>Affected by this news, U.S. stocks plummeted, and the Nasdaq index's decline expanded to 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2644a7b6ba7e19e4e663468a8f8b02\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell hawkish statement: The magnitude of September rate hike depends on overall data</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell hawkish statement: The magnitude of September rate hike depends on overall data\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-26 22:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, August 26, at the high-profile annual meeting of the Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that interest rates would not be cut anytime soon.</p><p>Powell said the size of September rate hike depends on \"overall\" data. Lower inflation data in July is welcome, but also<b>Not enough to convince central banks that inflation is falling</b>。 The Federal Reserve may require restrictive policy for some time. The longer-term neutral expected level of 2.25%-2.50% for the benchmark overnight rate is \"not the place to put the Fed to stop or pause its actions.\"</p><p>Powell hinted at<b>Trade slowing economic growth for determination to cool inflation.</b>He said that reducing inflation may require economic growth to remain below trend for a period of time. It will take some time to restore price stability, which requires<b>\"Forcefully\"</b>Use the tools of the central bank. Lessons from history show that,<b>Don't relax policy \"too early\"</b>。</p><p>Powell noted that the labor market is particularly strong but unbalanced; High inflation continues to spread. While the jobs environment is likely to soften somewhat, causing some pain for households, which are the unfortunate costs of bringing down inflation, the failure to restore price stability will mean even greater pain.</p><p>Regarding the economy, Powell said that the economy continues to show strong fundamental momentum. The U.S. economy has slowed down significantly, but the underlying momentum is strong. To some extent,<b>With further tightening of policy stance, it would be appropriate to slow down the pace of rate hike.</b></p><p>Affected by this news, U.S. stocks plummeted, and the Nasdaq index's decline expanded to 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2644a7b6ba7e19e4e663468a8f8b02\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152393159","content_text":"8月26日周五，在备受瞩目的美联储杰克逊霍尔年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示不会很快降息。鲍威尔称，9月加息规模取决于“整体”数据。7月份的较低通胀数据值得欢迎，但还不足以让央行相信通胀正在下降。美联储可能在一段时间内要求采取限制性政策。基准隔夜利率2.25%-2.50%的长期中性预期水平“不是让美联储停止或暂停行动的位置”。鲍威尔暗示了用经济增长放缓换取通胀降温的决心。他说，降低通货膨胀可能需要经济增速持续一段时间低于趋势。恢复价格稳定需要一段时间，这需要“有力地”使用央行的工具。历史的教训显示，不要“过早”放松政策。鲍威尔指出，劳动力市场特别强劲，但失衡；高通胀继续蔓延。虽然就业环境很可能会有所疲软，给家庭带来一些痛苦，这些都是降低通胀的不幸代价，但无法恢复价格稳定将意味着更大的痛苦。对于经济，鲍威尔表示，经济继续显示强劲的基本面动力美国经济明显放缓，但潜在势头强劲。在某种程度上，随着政策立场进一步收紧，放慢加息步伐将是适当的。受此消息影响，美股直线下挫，纳斯达克指数跌幅扩大至1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996588372,"gmtCreate":1661202824499,"gmtModify":1676536470179,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996588372","repostId":"1141625467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996588922,"gmtCreate":1661202809370,"gmtModify":1676536470179,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996588922","repostId":"1141625467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996581796,"gmtCreate":1661202798617,"gmtModify":1676536470171,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996581796","repostId":"2261544041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2261544041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661172131,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2261544041?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-22 20:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The bull market is not over! Is a new wave of \"hot\" commodity market about to start?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2261544041","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"经济衰退“对垒”供应短缺，谁将主导商品市场未来走势？今年以来，全球大宗商品价格跌宕起伏。开春，受供给侧制约推动，大宗商品涨势如虹，棉花、铜、石油、铁矿石、铝等期货价格不断创出新高。入夏，在强美元、弱经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economic recession \"versus\" supply shortage, who will dominate the future trend of the commodity market? Since the beginning of this year, global commodity prices have been ups and downs. At the beginning of spring, driven by supply-side constraints, commodities rose like a rainbow, and futures prices of cotton, copper, oil, iron ore, aluminum, etc. continued to hit new highs. In summer, under the impact of unfavorable factors such as a strong US dollar and weak economic expectations, the commodity market is obviously differentiated, and many major varieties have experienced deep corrections.</p><p>Entering August, although commodity prices rebounded, they were still weak. For example, although EIA inventories plummeted by 7.1 million barrels more than expected on Wednesday, it still did not push oil prices up sharply. As of press time, the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures is still playing repeatedly at the $90 mark, with a cumulative drop of more than 26% from the June high; The main force of COMEX gold rebounded above $1,820/oz on the 12th and then turned again, falling to less than $1,750/oz.</p><p>Many market analysts have warned that as major economies continue to tighten monetary policy, global commodity prices may become more volatile due to uncertain factors in the second half of the year, and the bull market in the global commodity market may come to an end.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>However, many people on Wall Street have not wavered their confidence in the outlook of the commodity market. They believe that it may still be in the \"halftime\" of this round of commodity super cycle, and a new wave of bull market may break out at the end of the year.</p><p>Goldman Sachs: Replenishment demand may push up commodity prices</p><p>Wall Street News mentioned that Goldman Sachs, the commodity \"standard bearer\", said in a research report on August 11 that the S&P GSCI commodity index will rise 23.4% before the end of the year.</p><p>Jeff Currie, global head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, said that \"irrational expectations have led to unsustainable prices\":</p><p>\"There seems to be irrational expectations in the commodity markets today, with prices and inventories falling simultaneously, demand exceeding expectations and supply falling short.\" Further, Currie noted that if this claim proves false and this oversupply fails to materialize, the rush to replenish inventories will drive commodity scarcity and push prices up significantly in the fall. This could force central banks to tighten monetary policy more aggressively and create a more prolonged economic contraction.</p><p>Currie said in the research report:</p><p>\"Stocks and commodity markets are signaling to investors today that demand is more persistent and commodity prices are rising, while interest rates and inflation curves hint at an impending slowdown and weakening. Until we see a real softening in commodity fundamentals, we remain convinced of the former, not the latter.\" UBS: Commodity supply worries or a'comeback '</p><p>On August 15, UBS Wealth Management Investment Director's Office (CIO) issued a report stating that the agency believes that commodities are oversold. Although there are still long-term risks, they are expected to gain gains in the short to medium term.</p><p>Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, and his team believe that the deterioration of global economic growth prospects and the strengthening of the US dollar are the current influencing factors that dominate the trend of commodity prices. While commodity prices are likely to fall further as the global economy plunges into a deep recession, a \"soft landing\" is as likely as a significant economic slowdown for now. The team also expects a rebound in demand for commodities in China in the future.</p><p>On the supply side, the team said overly pessimistic forecasts for commodity markets do not adequately account for supply-side dynamics. Overall, commodity supply will be constrained, and \"we are seeing positive demand trends\" due to years of underinvestment, low official inventories across multiple sectors, and weather and geopolitical factors.</p><p>The team also said concerns about supply shortages could return. Industrial metals and steel, as the core of the new commodity cycle and necessary raw materials in the decarbonization process, may effectively boost the recovery of commodity prices:</p><p>\"While this narrative is not new, we believe that the world is still unprepared for the surge in demand associated with the transition to clean energy. Despite higher prices, a decade of low returns and environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns have constrained investment in future supply growth of critical metals such as copper.\" The team expects broad commodity indexes to deliver 15%-20% returns over the next 6-12 months.</p><p>Variant Perception: Illiquidity in commodities trading exacerbates short squeeze potential</p><p>According to the view of Variant Perception, an investment research company, it is currently in the \"intermission\" of the commodity super cycle, and the overall trend of commodities in the second half of 2022 will show \"large fluctuations and small directional deviations.\" The agency believes that the current trend of commodity prices is similar to that in the fourth quarter of 2004 and the second half of 2006.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20f093a49dd6c14cf530fffc2edb9d31\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The agency also said that the lack of liquidity in commodity futures trading will also amplify the possibility of a short squeeze rebound, as Jeremy Weir, CEO of commodity trading agency Trafigura, said:</p><p>\"The lack of depth in the commodity futures market appears to continue to be a challenge for the industry as all players reduce their trading in derivatives, which in turn puts pressure on the ability to trade physically in commodities.\" Minsheng Securities: The road to repricing of the cycle is officially open</p><p>Mou Yiling, a strategist of Minsheng, believes that the global market has traded \"recession = downward inflation\" in advance. The implicit assumption behind it is that as long as the demand curve is shifted to the left again through tight monetary policy, the price level can fall back and escape from \"stagflation\" and enter post-recession easing. However, as both green inflation and population reversal are at work, long-cycle changes are wrestling with short-cycle economic cycles, and inflation is currently showing stickiness.</p><p>Mou Yiling said:</p><p>\"After fully pricing the short-term demand decline, the problem of long-term inflation will drive the re-correction of market pricing.\" Furthermore, Mou Yiling said that considering that overseas recession transactions are coming to an end, inflation stickiness is being re-priced, and domestic power cuts The shock will also catalyze the production capacity value of traditional energy sources that need to be revalued urgently. Combined with the current old energy sources becoming the focus of global transactions, the elasticity of thermal coal, oil and gas and electricity, as well as industrial metals (aluminum, copper) in the recovery of demand expectations should not be ignored.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market is not over! Is a new wave of \"hot\" commodity market about to start?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market is not over! Is a new wave of \"hot\" commodity market about to start?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-22 20:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economic recession \"versus\" supply shortage, who will dominate the future trend of the commodity market? Since the beginning of this year, global commodity prices have been ups and downs. At the beginning of spring, driven by supply-side constraints, commodities rose like a rainbow, and futures prices of cotton, copper, oil, iron ore, aluminum, etc. continued to hit new highs. In summer, under the impact of unfavorable factors such as a strong US dollar and weak economic expectations, the commodity market is obviously differentiated, and many major varieties have experienced deep corrections.</p><p>Entering August, although commodity prices rebounded, they were still weak. For example, although EIA inventories plummeted by 7.1 million barrels more than expected on Wednesday, it still did not push oil prices up sharply. As of press time, the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures is still playing repeatedly at the $90 mark, with a cumulative drop of more than 26% from the June high; The main force of COMEX gold rebounded above $1,820/oz on the 12th and then turned again, falling to less than $1,750/oz.</p><p>Many market analysts have warned that as major economies continue to tighten monetary policy, global commodity prices may become more volatile due to uncertain factors in the second half of the year, and the bull market in the global commodity market may come to an end.</p><p>However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>However, many people on Wall Street have not wavered their confidence in the outlook of the commodity market. They believe that it may still be in the \"halftime\" of this round of commodity super cycle, and a new wave of bull market may break out at the end of the year.</p><p>Goldman Sachs: Replenishment demand may push up commodity prices</p><p>Wall Street News mentioned that Goldman Sachs, the commodity \"standard bearer\", said in a research report on August 11 that the S&P GSCI commodity index will rise 23.4% before the end of the year.</p><p>Jeff Currie, global head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, said that \"irrational expectations have led to unsustainable prices\":</p><p>\"There seems to be irrational expectations in the commodity markets today, with prices and inventories falling simultaneously, demand exceeding expectations and supply falling short.\" Further, Currie noted that if this claim proves false and this oversupply fails to materialize, the rush to replenish inventories will drive commodity scarcity and push prices up significantly in the fall. This could force central banks to tighten monetary policy more aggressively and create a more prolonged economic contraction.</p><p>Currie said in the research report:</p><p>\"Stocks and commodity markets are signaling to investors today that demand is more persistent and commodity prices are rising, while interest rates and inflation curves hint at an impending slowdown and weakening. Until we see a real softening in commodity fundamentals, we remain convinced of the former, not the latter.\" UBS: Commodity supply worries or a'comeback '</p><p>On August 15, UBS Wealth Management Investment Director's Office (CIO) issued a report stating that the agency believes that commodities are oversold. Although there are still long-term risks, they are expected to gain gains in the short to medium term.</p><p>Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, and his team believe that the deterioration of global economic growth prospects and the strengthening of the US dollar are the current influencing factors that dominate the trend of commodity prices. While commodity prices are likely to fall further as the global economy plunges into a deep recession, a \"soft landing\" is as likely as a significant economic slowdown for now. The team also expects a rebound in demand for commodities in China in the future.</p><p>On the supply side, the team said overly pessimistic forecasts for commodity markets do not adequately account for supply-side dynamics. Overall, commodity supply will be constrained, and \"we are seeing positive demand trends\" due to years of underinvestment, low official inventories across multiple sectors, and weather and geopolitical factors.</p><p>The team also said concerns about supply shortages could return. Industrial metals and steel, as the core of the new commodity cycle and necessary raw materials in the decarbonization process, may effectively boost the recovery of commodity prices:</p><p>\"While this narrative is not new, we believe that the world is still unprepared for the surge in demand associated with the transition to clean energy. Despite higher prices, a decade of low returns and environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns have constrained investment in future supply growth of critical metals such as copper.\" The team expects broad commodity indexes to deliver 15%-20% returns over the next 6-12 months.</p><p>Variant Perception: Illiquidity in commodities trading exacerbates short squeeze potential</p><p>According to the view of Variant Perception, an investment research company, it is currently in the \"intermission\" of the commodity super cycle, and the overall trend of commodities in the second half of 2022 will show \"large fluctuations and small directional deviations.\" The agency believes that the current trend of commodity prices is similar to that in the fourth quarter of 2004 and the second half of 2006.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20f093a49dd6c14cf530fffc2edb9d31\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The agency also said that the lack of liquidity in commodity futures trading will also amplify the possibility of a short squeeze rebound, as Jeremy Weir, CEO of commodity trading agency Trafigura, said:</p><p>\"The lack of depth in the commodity futures market appears to continue to be a challenge for the industry as all players reduce their trading in derivatives, which in turn puts pressure on the ability to trade physically in commodities.\" Minsheng Securities: The road to repricing of the cycle is officially open</p><p>Mou Yiling, a strategist of Minsheng, believes that the global market has traded \"recession = downward inflation\" in advance. The implicit assumption behind it is that as long as the demand curve is shifted to the left again through tight monetary policy, the price level can fall back and escape from \"stagflation\" and enter post-recession easing. However, as both green inflation and population reversal are at work, long-cycle changes are wrestling with short-cycle economic cycles, and inflation is currently showing stickiness.</p><p>Mou Yiling said:</p><p>\"After fully pricing the short-term demand decline, the problem of long-term inflation will drive the re-correction of market pricing.\" Furthermore, Mou Yiling said that considering that overseas recession transactions are coming to an end, inflation stickiness is being re-priced, and domestic power cuts The shock will also catalyze the production capacity value of traditional energy sources that need to be revalued urgently. Combined with the current old energy sources becoming the focus of global transactions, the elasticity of thermal coal, oil and gas and electricity, as well as industrial metals (aluminum, copper) in the recovery of demand expectations should not be ignored.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668341\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668341","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2261544041","content_text":"经济衰退“对垒”供应短缺，谁将主导商品市场未来走势？今年以来，全球大宗商品价格跌宕起伏。开春，受供给侧制约推动，大宗商品涨势如虹，棉花、铜、石油、铁矿石、铝等期货价格不断创出新高。入夏，在强美元、弱经济预期等不利因素的冲击下，商品市场分化明显，不少主力品种出现了深度回调。进入8月，大宗商品价格虽有反弹，但仍处于弱势。例如，尽管周三EIA库存超预期骤降710万桶，但仍未推动油价大幅上行。截至发稿，美国WTI原油期货主力合约仍在90美元关口反复博弈，较6月份高点累计下跌超26%；COMEX黄金主力在12日反弹至1820美元/盎司上方后再次转向，跌至不足1750美元/盎司。不少市场分析人士警告称，随着主要经济体继续收紧货币政策，下半年全球大宗商品价格受不确定因素影响可能加大震荡，全球大宗商品市场牛市或宣告终结。然而，高盛、瑞银等一众华尔街人士却丝毫没有动摇对商品市场后市的信心。他们认为，当下可能仍处在本轮大宗商品超级周期中的“中场休息”，新一波牛市行情或在年底爆发。高盛：补库需求或推升商品价格华尔街见闻提及，大宗商品“旗手”高盛在8月11日的一份研究报告中称，标普GSCI大宗商品指数年底前将上涨23.4%。高盛大宗商品研究全球主管Jeff Currie表示，“非理性预期导致了不可持续的价格”：“如今，大宗商品市场似乎存在非理性预期，价格和库存同时下降，需求超过预期，供应不及预期。”进一步，Currie指出，如果这种说法被证明是错误的，而且这种供应过剩未能成为现实，那么补充库存的热潮将推动商品稀缺，并在秋季大幅推高价格。这可能迫使央行更积极地收紧货币政策，并造成更持久的经济收缩。Currie在研报中称：“如今，股市和大宗商品市场向投资者发出的信号是，需求更加持久，大宗商品价格上涨，而利率和通胀曲线则暗示经济即将放缓和走软。在我们看到真正的大宗商品基本面软化之前，我们仍然相信前者，而不是后者。”瑞银：大宗商品供给担忧或“卷土重来”8月15日，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）发表报告表示，该机构认为大宗商品处于超卖状态，虽然仍有长期风险，但中短期有望获得收益。瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官Mark Haefele及其团队认为，全球经济增长前景恶化、美元走强是当下主导大宗商品价格走向的影响因素。尽管大宗商品价格可能在全球经济陷入深度衰退的情况下进一步下跌，但目前来看“软着陆”和经济明显放缓的可能性一样大。该团队还预计，未来中国对大宗商品的需求将出现反弹。供应方面，该团队表示，大宗商品市场的过度悲观预测并没有充分考虑到供应方面的动态。总体而言，大宗商品供应会受到限制，由于多年的投资不足、多个行业的官方库存都很低，以及天气和地缘政治因素，“我们看到了积极的需求趋势”。该团队还表示，对供应短缺的担忧可能卷土重来。工业金属和钢铁作为新大宗商品周期的核心和脱碳化过程中的必要原料，或将有力助推商品价格复苏：“虽然这种说法并不新鲜，但我们认为，世界仍没有准备好应对与向清洁能源转型相关的需求激增。尽管价格上涨，但十年来的低回报率以及对环境、社会和治理（ESG）的担忧，已经限制了对铜等关键金属未来供应增长的投资。”该团队预计，未来6-12个月，广泛大宗商品指数有望取得15%-20%的回报率。Variant Perception：大宗商品交易流动性不足，加剧逼空可能性投资研究公司 Variant Perception 的观点认为，当下正处在商品超级周期的“间歇”，2022年下半年大宗商品走势整体会呈现“大幅波动、小幅指向偏差”。该机构认为，当下大宗商品价格走势与将04年第四季度、06年下半年的走势较为类似。该机构还表示，大宗商品期货交易流动性不足，也将放大逼空反弹的可能性，正如大宗商品交易机构托克首席执行官Jeremy Weir所言：“大宗商品期货市场缺乏深度，似乎将继续是该行业面临的一个挑战，因为所有参与者都减少了对衍生品的交易，进而对大宗商品实物交易的能力构成压力。”民生证券：周期的重定价之路已正式开启民生策略分析师牟一凌认为，全球市场提前交易了“衰退=通胀下行”，背后隐含的假设是只要通过紧缩的货币政策将需求曲线重新左移，就可以实现价格水平的回落，从“滞胀”中逃离，进入衰退后的宽松。不过，由于绿色通胀和人口逆转都在发生作用，长周期变化正在与短经济周期形成角力，目前通胀正在呈现粘性。牟一凌表示：“在充分定价了短期需求下行后，长期通胀的问题将驱动市场定价的重新修正。”进一步，牟一凌称，考虑到海外的衰退交易正在告一段落，通胀粘性正在被重新定价，而国内的限电冲击也将催化本就亟待被重估的传统能源的产能价值，结合当下老能源正成为全球交易的关注点，动力煤、油气和电力，以及工业金属（铝、铜）在需求预期修复中的弹性不应该被忽视。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996581185,"gmtCreate":1661202533950,"gmtModify":1676536470156,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4116924152740332","authorIdStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/223fd60ccb1ff5468b21948bcf5f5d1a","width":"1242","height":"3497"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996581185","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9998617585,"gmtCreate":1660979260550,"gmtModify":1676536434849,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998617585","repostId":"2260437405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2260437405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660960527,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260437405?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 09:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Senior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260437405","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, senior Fed officials have frequently hinted that controlling inflation remains the Fed's primary goal, even if rate hike may drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes that this may be a warm-up for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish speech at the global central bank meeting next Friday. Next week, one of the financial events that attracts the most attention of global investors will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting to be held in Wyoming, USA next Friday, August 26th. At this event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, and the content of his speech may indicate the direction of borrowing costs in the United States.</p><p><b>Before Powell's views, other senior Fed officials have recently made hawkish remarks, which seem to be \"setting the tone\" for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Fed watchers expect Powell to speak hawkish as he reinforces the central bank's goal of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, August 19, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if inflation leads the economy into recession.</b></p><p>Just a day ago, three senior Fed officials made hawkish comments.</p><p><b>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, the Fed's big hawk, said he preferred the Fed's September rate hike of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Bullard said he was considering supporting another sharp rate hike at the Fed's interest rate meeting next month, adding that he was not ready for the economy to have experienced the worst of surging inflation:</p><p>We should continue to quickly raise policy rates to levels that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike should be put off until next year. When talking about next month's interest rate meeting, he said:</p><p>I'm now leaning towards rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good read of the economy and we have very high inflation, so I think it makes sense to continue raising policy rates and move into a range where we can control inflation.<b>On the same day, another hawkish Fed official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed similar views. She believes that U.S. inflation, while it may be easing, is still on the high side:</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data for July is encouraging, but it seems too hasty to declare the Biden administration's victory in fighting inflation.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who has always been regarded as a dovish official of the Federal Reserve, believed that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% before the end of the year to cool inflation:</b></p><p>We need to raise interest rates, at least to a neutral level, around 3%, but probably into restrictive territory.<b>Daly further said that the specific rate hike in September depends on the next economic data. 50 basis points or 75 basis points may be an appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Although Daly's statement is relatively moderate, because she has always been relatively dovish, her claimed possible rate hike of 75 basis points still broke the market's expectation that the Fed would suspend rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She went further:</b></p><p><b>We don't want the market to think that the Fed's path is hump-shaped, that is, a rapid rate hike this year and a big rate cut next year.</b><b>How does the market react?</b></p><p><b>The market this week seems to have begun to react to the hawkish views of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Major U.S. stock indexes have all fallen this week. The Nasdaq and S&P, which rose more than 3% last week, fell 2.62% and 1.21% respectively. The Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 2.38%, both ending as of last week. The longest winning streak since November last year, set by four consecutive weeks of gains; The Dow, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% and fell back after rebounding last week; The Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, ranking first in decline.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has risen by 40 basis points this month.</p><p>In addition, hawkish comments from senior Fed officials caused the dollar to soar,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The cryptocurrency's performance also appears to have been rippled by the Fed's hawkish stance, with a plunge on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates next year</b></p><p>Although the market believes that the Fed will \"do what it says\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year are getting higher and higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>According to Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Institute:</p><p>To bring inflation down to its 2% target, the Fed will have to suppress the economy.<b>But, in order to promote growth, the Fed will \"accept living with inflation\" at some point.</b>This dovish pivot is unlikely to happen anytime soon compared to what the market seems to expect right now, but this dovish pivot could come in 2023.</body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSenior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-20 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, senior Fed officials have frequently hinted that controlling inflation remains the Fed's primary goal, even if rate hike may drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes that this may be a warm-up for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish speech at the global central bank meeting next Friday. Next week, one of the financial events that attracts the most attention of global investors will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting to be held in Wyoming, USA next Friday, August 26th. At this event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, and the content of his speech may indicate the direction of borrowing costs in the United States.</p><p><b>Before Powell's views, other senior Fed officials have recently made hawkish remarks, which seem to be \"setting the tone\" for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Fed watchers expect Powell to speak hawkish as he reinforces the central bank's goal of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, August 19, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if inflation leads the economy into recession.</b></p><p>Just a day ago, three senior Fed officials made hawkish comments.</p><p><b>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, the Fed's big hawk, said he preferred the Fed's September rate hike of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Bullard said he was considering supporting another sharp rate hike at the Fed's interest rate meeting next month, adding that he was not ready for the economy to have experienced the worst of surging inflation:</p><p>We should continue to quickly raise policy rates to levels that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike should be put off until next year. When talking about next month's interest rate meeting, he said:</p><p>I'm now leaning towards rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good read of the economy and we have very high inflation, so I think it makes sense to continue raising policy rates and move into a range where we can control inflation.<b>On the same day, another hawkish Fed official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed similar views. She believes that U.S. inflation, while it may be easing, is still on the high side:</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data for July is encouraging, but it seems too hasty to declare the Biden administration's victory in fighting inflation.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who has always been regarded as a dovish official of the Federal Reserve, believed that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% before the end of the year to cool inflation:</b></p><p>We need to raise interest rates, at least to a neutral level, around 3%, but probably into restrictive territory.<b>Daly further said that the specific rate hike in September depends on the next economic data. 50 basis points or 75 basis points may be an appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Although Daly's statement is relatively moderate, because she has always been relatively dovish, her claimed possible rate hike of 75 basis points still broke the market's expectation that the Fed would suspend rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She went further:</b></p><p><b>We don't want the market to think that the Fed's path is hump-shaped, that is, a rapid rate hike this year and a big rate cut next year.</b><b>How does the market react?</b></p><p><b>The market this week seems to have begun to react to the hawkish views of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Major U.S. stock indexes have all fallen this week. The Nasdaq and S&P, which rose more than 3% last week, fell 2.62% and 1.21% respectively. The Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 2.38%, both ending as of last week. The longest winning streak since November last year, set by four consecutive weeks of gains; The Dow, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% and fell back after rebounding last week; The Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, ranking first in decline.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has risen by 40 basis points this month.</p><p>In addition, hawkish comments from senior Fed officials caused the dollar to soar,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The cryptocurrency's performance also appears to have been rippled by the Fed's hawkish stance, with a plunge on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates next year</b></p><p>Although the market believes that the Fed will \"do what it says\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year are getting higher and higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>According to Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Institute:</p><p>To bring inflation down to its 2% target, the Fed will have to suppress the economy.<b>But, in order to promote growth, the Fed will \"accept living with inflation\" at some point.</b>This dovish pivot is unlikely to happen anytime soon compared to what the market seems to expect right now, but this dovish pivot could come in 2023.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2260437405","content_text":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的财经事件之一就是8月26日下周五在美国怀俄明州举办的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会了。在这场活动中，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话，讨论经济前景，其讲话内容可能预示着美国的借贷成本走向。在鲍威尔发表观点之前，其他美联储高官最近纷纷发表鹰派言论，似乎是在为鲍威尔的讲话“定调”。美联储观察人士预计，鲍威尔将发表强硬言论，因为他强化了央行抑制通胀和控制未来物价上涨预期的目标。8月19日周五，里士满联储主席巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）表示，即使通胀导致经济陷入衰退，美联储也必须继续对抗通胀。就在一天前，三位美联储高官纷纷发表鹰派言论。美联储大鹰派圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）表示，他倾向于美联储9月加息75个基点。布拉德说，他正在考虑在下个月的美联储议息会议上支持再次大幅加息，并补充说他还没有准备好经济已经经历了通胀飙升的最糟糕时期：我们应该继续迅速将政策利率提高到将对通胀造成重大下行压力的水平。我真的不明白为什么要将加息拖到明年。在谈到下个月的议息会议时，他说：我现在倾向于再次加息75个基点。我认为我们对经济的解读相对较好，而且我们的通胀率非常高，所以我认为继续提高政策利率并进入能够控制通胀的区间是有意义的。同一天，另一位美联储鹰派官员堪萨斯城联储主席乔治（Esther George）也表达了类似的观点。她认为，美国通胀虽然可能正在趋于缓和，但仍然偏高：美国7月CPI数据是鼓舞人心的，但现在就宣布拜登政府抗通胀取得胜利还显得操之过急。周四，向来被视作美联储鸽派官员的旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary Daly）则认为，美联储应在年底前将利率“略微”提高到3%以上，以冷却通胀：我们需要提高利率，至少达到中性水平，约为3%，但可能会进入限制性区域。戴利进一步称，具体9月加息多少，要看接下来的经济数据，50个基点或者75个基点，都可能是合适的加息幅度。尽管戴利的表态相对温和，但由于她向来相对鸽派，她所称的可能加息75个基点，依然打破了市场对美联储暂停加息或者大幅收窄加息幅度的期待。她还进一步说：我们不希望市场认为美联储的路径是驼峰形的，即今年迅速加息，明年再大举降息。市场如何反应？本周的市场，似乎已经开始对美联储的鹰派观点做出反应。本周主要美股指均累计下跌，上周涨超3%的纳指和标普分别累跌2.62%和1.21%，上周涨近3%的纳斯达克100累跌2.38%，均结束截至上周连涨四周所创的去年11月以来最长连涨周；上周涨近3%的道指累跌0.16%，在上周反弹后回落；上周涨近5%的罗素2000累跌2.94%，跌幅居首。十年期美国国债收益率本月则已经走高了40个基点。此外，美联储高官们的鹰派言论导致美元飙升，美元指数本周飙升2%，这是自2020年4月以来的最大单周涨幅。加密货币的表现似乎也受到了美联储鹰派立场的波及，周五出现暴跌。市场仍预期明年美联储将降息尽管市场相信美联储今年内将“说到做到”，贯彻鹰派立场，但市场对明年美联储降息的预期却越来越高。贝莱德投资研究所高级投资策略师Ann-Katrin Petersen认为：为了将通胀率降至2%的目标，美联储将不得不压制经济。但是，为了促进增长，美联储将在某个时候“接受与通胀共存”。 与市场目前似乎预期的情况相比，这种鸽派转向不太可能在短期内出现，但这种鸽派转向可能会在2023年到来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SPY":1,"QQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072557294,"gmtCreate":1658070533018,"gmtModify":1676536100849,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a>..","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a>..","text":"$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14e9880ed0aa55b0f340323c0a053698","width":"1242","height":"2828"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072557294","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052119125,"gmtCreate":1655136123967,"gmtModify":1676535568392,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052119125","repostId":"2243019507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243019507","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪海内外最新宏观政策和经济走势，分享来自莫尼塔宏观团队的最新观点。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"钟正生经济分析","id":"70","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b"},"pubTimestamp":1655095529,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243019507?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 12:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243019507","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's Note:</b>In May 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations, and further highlighting the need for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. After the Federal Reserve officially launched a shrinking balance sheet in June, money market interest rates were generally relatively stable, but the superimposed impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices is still worthy of vigilance.<b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and planned to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, increasing it to US $95 billion three months later. How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Fed's operations were more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow;<b>2）</b>In order to avoid sending different policy signals from interest rate cuts at the same time as shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early in August 2019, two months earlier than originally planned.</p><p><b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Compared to 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower now, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different from the past, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that during the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by approximately 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).<b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>The current employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong. If inflationary pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>, considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent. If inflationary pressures in the United States ease, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" of the economy.</p><p><b>At present, the balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, especially the debt-side reverse repurchase agreement and the scale and proportion of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly, which makes the disturbance of liquidity in the shrinking balance sheet relatively low. One is</b>From the perspective of assets, the proportion of MBS with greater uncertainty in scale changes has declined, which has reduced the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The second is</b>, the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has increased sharply, and short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit of interest rates, which means that market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker cushion for the liquidity shock of the shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third,</b>With the gradual normalization of U.S. fiscal policy, the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, thereby releasing a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The fourth is</b>, the launch of the standing repurchase facility tool can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence, and reduce the probability of liquidity shortages.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the early stage of the shrinking balance sheet, from the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated</b>。 Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has once risen to more than 3%. In particular, the real interest rate has returned from-0.90% on March 1 to 0.34% on May 10, which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. The rise in US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the adjustment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it will start a shrinking balance sheet from June 1, and plans to reduce its holdings of assets by US $47.5 billion per month, and plans to reduce its holdings by US $95 billion per month three months later. assets. This is in line with the results discussed in the minutes of the March meeting, but it does not specify the end point of shrinking balance sheet. It only indicates that the pace of shrinking balance sheet will be slowed down when it is about to reach the \"sufficient level\". How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>Review of the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization</b></p><p>After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, in response to the economic recession, the Federal Reserve launched a series of unconventional monetary policy tools such as zero interest rate and quantitative easing. As the U.S. economy tends to stabilize and recover, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and launched a shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to review the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The last round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began in May 2013, when then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech that \"if it is found that the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to gradually slow down purchases at a future meeting. The speed of assets\", sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to insufficient communication with the market, the financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, known as the \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve announced the Taper timetable at its interest rate meeting. From January to October 2014, QE was cut month by month and finally ended. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve launched its first rate hike after the financial crisis, but it \"tasted it\" after only 25BP in rate hike. It was not until December 2016 that the second rate hike began, and since then, it has continuously raised policy interest rates.</p><p><b>Focus on observing shrinking balance sheet operations in the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</b>With the deepening of the rate hike process of the Federal Reserve, shrinking balance sheet has also been put on the agenda. Starting in October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS at a rate of US $6 billion and US $4 billion per month, and increase it by US $6 billion and US $4 billion every three months in the next 12 months. Increasing at a rate of US dollars. It wasn't until a year later, in October 2018, that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet rate peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion Treasury Bond + $20 billion MBS). This may reflect that,<b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Federal Reserve was more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Federal Reserve hoped to reduce the impact of liquidity tightening on the financial market through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, in August 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early.</b>At the July 2019 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop shrinking balance sheet from August of that year, two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe that there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet at that time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid simultaneous interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet, sending out different policy signals.</b>At the interest rate meeting in August 2019, in order to cope with sluggish inflation and the pressure of slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds target rate by 0.25%. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed out, the federal funds target rate is its main means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when the downward pressure on the economy increases and the policy interest rate needs to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet should \"give way\" to cutting interest rates.</p><p><b>Second, the money market began to experience a shortage of liquidity.</b>With the launch of three rounds of QE after the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism has changed from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor\" system to the unconventional \"interest rate floor\" system. In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the deposit reserve interest rate (IOR) is the upper limit of interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operating interest rate is the lower limit of interest rate. When liquidity is abundant, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will operate between them. However, since mid-2019, with the continuous reduction of liquidity, the Federal Funds rate has begun to break through the IOR as the upper limit, \"money shortage\" incidents have occurred frequently, and the \"interest rate floor\" system has gradually moved to the verge of failure. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July 2019 specifically mentioned that the reduction in reserves brought about by shrinking balance sheet led to sharp fluctuations in short-term interest rates, which also indicated that the liquidity shortage in the U.S. money market had begun to occur at that time. In its statement in October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Federal Reserve will conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Although there was a liquidity shortage in the late stage of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the performance of the U.S. stock market during the entire shrinking balance sheet was still relatively strong and was not significantly impacted.</b>Nearly a year after the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the U.S. stock market continued its previous upward trend. From the beginning of October 2017 to the end of September 2018, the S&P 500 index rose by 15.2%. Although the stock market experienced a short-term correction afterwards, it was mainly caused by the weakening of fundamentals. The U.S. manufacturing PMI has dropped significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019, as the Federal Reserve continues to release \"dovish\" signals, U.S. stocks have also begun to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet are different</b></p><p>From the perspective of growth and employment, the two major aspects that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focuses on, compared with the opening of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Different from the low inflation and low unemployment rate in early 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower but inflation is higher under the background that the labor force participation rate has not yet fully recovered. In March 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.5% year-on-year, setting a new high in the past 40 years. Moreover, under the impact of short-term factors such as declining demand for inventory replenishment and a substantial increase in the trade deficit, U.S. GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The background of high inflation determines that the rhythm of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different.</b>After then Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Federal Reserve really started Taper at the end of 2013. It was not until October 2014 that the Taper ended. After that, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to start its rate hike. From the beginning The time lag between Taper and shrinking balance sheet has reached 46 months, and the US federal benchmark interest rate at the beginning of the shrinking balance sheet has reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in response to rising inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet is faster than before.</b>Since the release of the Taper signal in the second half of 2021, the Fed's monetary policy normalization process has continued to accelerate. In this round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the time interval between the opening of Taper and the shrinking balance sheet is only about half a year, and the pace of tightening is much faster than before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting stated that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, and three months later, it plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $95 billion per month. Not only are the initial shrinking balance sheet size and rhythm much higher than the previous round (US $10 billion/month, increasing by US $10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet size is also higher than the previous round's US $50 billion per month.<b>Changes in the scale and rhythm of the shrinking balance sheet will cause the current round of the Fed's balance sheet to decline at a faster rate: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by about 700 billion dollars, a decrease of 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong, and the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits are at historically low levels. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering that the U.S. economy was affected by \"temporary factors\" such as a decline in inventory investment and a surge in imports, the annualized rate in the first quarter fell by 1.4%. Regardless of whether these are temporary shocks or not, there is still controversy, but the market and the Federal Reserve's concerns about a \"hard landing\" of the US economy are undoubtedly increasing. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effect of the combination boxing. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States ease in the future, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This is also in line with the vague statement at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May that \"it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it is about to reach the'sufficient level '\".</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The Fed's balance sheet structure and policy tools are different this time</b></p><p><b>Studying the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from the discussion of its balance sheet.</b>From the perspective of assets, the assets of the Federal Reserve are mainly securities assets it holds, that is, various Treasury Bond, MBS, etc. it purchased when expanding its balance sheet, accounting for nearly 95%; From the perspective of liabilities, the Fed's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, deposits from the Ministry of Finance and reverse repurchase agreements. The above four items account for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, which account for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, the proportion of Treasury Bond in the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and the current holding scale is about 5.7 trillion US dollars. The proportion of MBS in the total assets of the Federal Reserve dropped from 39.7% to 30.4%, but the scale also exceeded US $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared with 2017, the current difference on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet is more obvious, and the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly.</b>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet in October 2017, the general deposits of the Treasury Department and reverse repurchase agreements in the Federal Reserve's liabilities were US $185.1 billion and US $374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of the total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%, which also led to the decline of the liability side in the last round of shrinking balance sheet, mainly through the decline of reserve scale. But up to now, the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly. Among them, the scale of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance has reached 957.4 billion US dollars, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached 2.09 trillion US dollars, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two is close to the reserve scale.</p><p><b>As the current balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, shrinking balance sheet's disturbance to liquidity may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>One is</b>，<b>From the perspective of assets, the decline in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.</b>For Treasury Bond, because its maturity date and maturity scale are known, the pace of Treasury Bond's reduction is basically certain. However, there may be some uncertainties in the process of MBS reduction. This mainly stems from: 1) the possibility of prepayment exists in MBS, where borrowers can choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when they sell their home or refinance their mortgage; 2) From the perspective of operational process, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is relatively long, from the time when the principal is received (resulting in a decrease in holdings) to the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in holdings) The time interval can be up to three months. In the last round of shrinking balance sheet, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction scale was relatively higher, reaching 2/3 of Treasury Bond's reduction scale. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve's reduction of holdings is up to US $60 billion in Treasury Bond and US $35 billion in MBS per month. MBS accounts for a lower proportion of the reduction, which means that this round of shrinking balance sheet Uncertainty is relatively lower.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of debt, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that the liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, which can alleviate the liquidity impact caused by the shrinking balance sheet.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool is similar to that of my country's central bank's positive repurchase. Both of them sell securities to financial institutions and agree to repurchase them after a period of time to achieve the purpose of recovering excess liquidity in the market. Therefore, in the period of excess liquidity and low market interest rate, non-bank financial institutions will choose to invest their funds in the reverse repurchase agreement of the Federal Reserve in order to obtain stable income. The interest rate of the reverse repurchase agreement thus becomes the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor of the Federal Reserve under the sufficient reserve system, and the use of reverse repurchase tools also reflects the abundance of market liquidity to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Why is the current proportion of reverse repurchase agreements much higher than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet? First</b>For banks, there is a cost to hold reserves. After the scale of reserves held by banks increases, the scale of their overall balance sheet will also expand, which will bring higher capital regulatory requirements. Therefore, banks' willingness to hold reserves will not increase indefinitely.<b>Next</b>, the bank's income from holding reserves comes from arbitrage transactions, that is, borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repo rate (between the ON RRP rate and the deposit reserve rate), and depositing this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, get interest calculated at the deposit reserve rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the earnings of the carry trade. Before and after the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this spread remained at 25BP, but at present it is only 10BP, which undoubtedly reduced the arbitrage income of banks, thus limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, and non-bank financial institutions can only directly deposit this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also shows that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower limits of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculated the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rate, respectively, representing the distance between short-term interest rates and the upper and lower bounds of interest rates. It can be found that before and after the start of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR was smaller, which means that the short-term interest rate was closer to the upper limit at that time; At present, the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates is smaller, and the short-term interest rate is closer to the lower limit, which reflects that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liabilities of the Fed's balance sheet were mostly bank reserves. However, the current increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) is closer to the lower limit of interest rates all indicate that both banks and non-bank financial institutions The liquidity of bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Fed recovers liquidity through the shrinking balance sheet, the size of bonds held on the asset side of its balance sheet decreases; For the liability side, the corresponding reduction can be achieved through the reduction in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements (rather than through the reduction in the scale of reserves like the last round of shrinking balance sheet), thereby reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity. impact.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance will also release certain liquidity</b>。 The high increase in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance is another important feature of this shrinking balance sheet. Similar to the role of my country's fiscal deposits, changes in general deposits of the U.S. Treasury will also disturb market liquidity. Before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, although the size of the general deposits (TGA) of the Ministry of Finance in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve fluctuated to some extent, the total size basically remained below 400 billion US dollars; After the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of financing through the issuance of Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, once reaching nearly US $1.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2021, with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill, the scale of TGA declined rapidly. In mid-2021, the U.S. government debt hit the upper limit, and it was difficult for the Treasury Department to continue to raise funds through bond issuance. The balance of TGA accounts continued to decline, once falling to less than US $60 billion, releasing a large amount of liquidity to the market in the process. However, after the U.S. government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond. At the end of April, the size of the TGA account exceeded US $900 billion.<b>Looking forward, U.S. fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, which will release a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity impact brought about by the shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the launch of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) tool has also reduced the probability of liquidity shortages.</b>Since mid-2019, there have been signs of liquidity shortage in the U.S. financial market, and spot interest rates have continued to exceed the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. In September 2019, under the influence of factors such as tax payment and Treasury Bond issuance, EFFR was once 20BP higher than the deposit reserve interest rate; In March 2020, a \"money shortage\" broke out again in the U.S. financial market. The three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents future capital borrowing costs, once rose to the highest point since 2008, and the New York Fed's repurchase operations were continuously oversubscribed. Frequent liquidity shortages have attracted the attention of the Federal Reserve: In July 2021, in order to solve possible liquidity shortages during the normalization of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve launched the SRF tool \"in advance\". The facility allows qualified dealers to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve with Treasury Bond, ABS or MBS as collateral at a certain interest rate (typically set as the cap on the federal funds target rate).</p><p><b>The SRF tool works mainly through two channels: First,</b>, as mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) will only function as an interest rate ceiling if there is ample liquidity. When liquidity begins to tighten, some financial institutions are willing to borrow funds from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing short-term interest rates to break through the IOR, which is the interest rate ceiling. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thereby reducing the upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates through repurchase operations in September 2019 before the SRF tool was launched.<b>The second is</b>, the launch of the SRF tool has enhanced the market's confidence in the stability of short-term interest rates, thereby reducing the possibility of large fluctuations in market interest rates. Therefore, this tool can guarantee that the spot rate runs within the range of the target federal funds rate.</p><p><b>In addition, the usage of SRF instruments is also an important window to observe the liquidity situation of financial markets</b>: When the liquidity of the financial market can meet the actual demand, financial institutions can smoothly raise funds through the market, and the use of SRF instruments should be relatively low; When there is a shortage of liquidity in the financial market, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF tools will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that started in 2017, the intensification of inflationary pressure may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. However, the uncertainty of inflation trends and the risk of a \"hard landing\" of the US economy also make the Fed's subsequent shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the camera to observe the effect of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet's \"combination boxing\". The more important difference is that from the perspective of the scale of reverse repurchase agreements, the current liquidity in the U.S. financial market is already excessively abundant. Coupled with the possible decline in the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department and the early launch of SRF tools, this Fed shrinking balance sheet has an impact on the market. The impact of liquidity may not be as good as before.</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the time window for the end of the shrinking balance sheet may be between the end of the Fed's current rate hike and the next interest rate cut.</b>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated in previous balance sheet operations that the federal funds target rate is its main means to adjust its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data displayed by the CME FedWatch Tool, the current round of rate hike by the Federal Reserve may end in mid-2023. Once the downward pressure on the U.S. economy increases, the Federal Reserve will no longer tighten or even turn to easing again. By then, in order to avoid different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and in order to maintain the main position of interest rate means in monetary policy, there is a high probability that shrinking balance sheet will \"die down\" by then.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the initial stage of the shrinking balance sheet, asset prices may still fluctuate greatly.</b>Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in early May announced that a shrinking balance sheet was about to begin, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond soared from 0.07% on May 4 to May 10. 0.34% (while the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond on March 1 was only-0.90%), which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. In the same period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It fluctuated at a high level above 103, causing the exchange rates of most non-US currencies to plummet. U.S. stocks also experienced a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key point of 4,000. Therefore,<b>From the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b>: International geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, inflationary pressure in the United States exceeds expectations, downward pressure on the U.S. economy exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy tightening exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed shrinking balance sheet: What's Different This Time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/70\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/86f6d9605fc344e28cd4247a93dcdc2b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">钟正生经济分析 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-13 12:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Editor's Note:</b>In May 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.6% year-on-year, once again exceeding market expectations, and further highlighting the need for the Federal Reserve to accelerate tightening. After the Federal Reserve officially launched a shrinking balance sheet in June, money market interest rates were generally relatively stable, but the superimposed impact of \"shrinking balance sheet + rate hike\" on asset prices is still worthy of vigilance.<b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced that it would start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and planned to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, increasing it to US $95 billion three months later. How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</p><p><b>Looking back at the last round of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet, we can find that: 1)</b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Fed's operations were more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. The Fed was not in a hurry to reduce its balance sheet on a large scale, and the pace from guiding tightening to shrinking balance sheet was relatively slow;<b>2）</b>In order to avoid sending different policy signals from interest rate cuts at the same time as shrinking balance sheet, and to alleviate the liquidity shortage in financial markets, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early in August 2019, two months earlier than originally planned.</p><p><b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Compared to 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower now, but inflation is higher. This determines that the purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different from the past, and the pace is relatively faster. We estimate that during the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by approximately 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).<b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>The current employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong. If inflationary pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>, considering that rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent. If inflationary pressures in the United States ease, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet in order to avoid a \"hard landing\" of the economy.</p><p><b>At present, the balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, especially the debt-side reverse repurchase agreement and the scale and proportion of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly, which makes the disturbance of liquidity in the shrinking balance sheet relatively low. One is</b>From the perspective of assets, the proportion of MBS with greater uncertainty in scale changes has declined, which has reduced the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The second is</b>, the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has increased sharply, and short-term interest rates are closer to the lower limit of interest rates, which means that market liquidity is more abundant than before the start of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, providing a thicker cushion for the liquidity shock of the shrinking balance sheet.<b>Third,</b>With the gradual normalization of U.S. fiscal policy, the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, thereby releasing a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviating the impact of shrinking balance sheet.<b>The fourth is</b>, the launch of the standing repurchase facility tool can provide liquidity under certain conditions, stabilize market confidence, and reduce the probability of liquidity shortages.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the early stage of the shrinking balance sheet, from the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated</b>。 Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has once risen to more than 3%. In particular, the real interest rate has returned from-0.90% on March 1 to 0.34% on May 10, which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. The rise in US Treasury yields has become an important catalyst for the adjustment of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>On May 4, 2022, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the May FOMC interest rate meeting, announcing that it will start a shrinking balance sheet from June 1, and plans to reduce its holdings of assets by US $47.5 billion per month, and plans to reduce its holdings by US $95 billion per month three months later. assets. This is in line with the results discussed in the minutes of the March meeting, but it does not specify the end point of shrinking balance sheet. It only indicates that the pace of shrinking balance sheet will be slowed down when it is about to reach the \"sufficient level\". How is this Fed shrinking balance sheet different from the past? How has the impact on the market changed? This article attempts to answer the above questions.</b></p><p><b>one</b></p><p><b>Review of the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization</b></p><p>After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, in response to the economic recession, the Federal Reserve launched a series of unconventional monetary policy tools such as zero interest rate and quantitative easing. As the U.S. economy tends to stabilize and recover, the Federal Reserve officially launched Taper at the end of 2013 and launched a shrinking balance sheet in October 2017. This is also the only shrinking balance sheet operation since the Federal Reserve implemented unconventional monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to review the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31c1262b4e94932a9bf15330cfedd44\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The last round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began in May 2013, when then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech that \"if it is found that the U.S. job market continues to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to gradually slow down purchases at a future meeting. The speed of assets\", sending a Taper signal to the market. However, due to insufficient communication with the market, the financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, known as the \"Taper Tantrum\". In December 2013, the Federal Reserve announced the Taper timetable at its interest rate meeting. From January to October 2014, QE was cut month by month and finally ended. In December 2015, the Federal Reserve launched its first rate hike after the financial crisis, but it \"tasted it\" after only 25BP in rate hike. It was not until December 2016 that the second rate hike began, and since then, it has continuously raised policy interest rates.</p><p><b>Focus on observing shrinking balance sheet operations in the last round of Fed monetary policy normalization.</b>With the deepening of the rate hike process of the Federal Reserve, shrinking balance sheet has also been put on the agenda. Starting in October 2017, the Federal Reserve decided to reduce its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS at a rate of US $6 billion and US $4 billion per month, and increase it by US $6 billion and US $4 billion every three months in the next 12 months. Increasing at a rate of US dollars. It wasn't until a year later, in October 2018, that the Fed's shrinking balance sheet rate peaked at $50 billion per month ($30 billion Treasury Bond + $20 billion MBS). This may reflect that,<b>Due to the lack of effective reference, the Federal Reserve was more cautious in the last round of shrinking balance sheet. At that time, the Federal Reserve hoped to reduce the impact of liquidity tightening on the financial market through slow and gradual shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><b>However, in August 2019, the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet early.</b>At the July 2019 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop shrinking balance sheet from August of that year, two months earlier than originally planned.<b>We believe that there were two main reasons why the Federal Reserve stopped shrinking balance sheet at that time:</b></p><p><b>First, in order to avoid simultaneous interest rate cuts and shrinking balance sheet, sending out different policy signals.</b>At the interest rate meeting in August 2019, in order to cope with sluggish inflation and the pressure of slowing global growth, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the federal funds target rate by 0.25%. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly pointed out, the federal funds target rate is its main means of adjusting its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. Therefore, when the downward pressure on the economy increases and the policy interest rate needs to be lowered, shrinking balance sheet should \"give way\" to cutting interest rates.</p><p><b>Second, the money market began to experience a shortage of liquidity.</b>With the launch of three rounds of QE after the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's interest rate control mechanism has changed from the pre-crisis \"Interest Rate Corridor\" system to the unconventional \"interest rate floor\" system. In the \"interest rate floor\" system, the deposit reserve interest rate (IOR) is the upper limit of interest rate, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) operating interest rate is the lower limit of interest rate. When liquidity is abundant, the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) will operate between them. However, since mid-2019, with the continuous reduction of liquidity, the Federal Funds rate has begun to break through the IOR as the upper limit, \"money shortage\" incidents have occurred frequently, and the \"interest rate floor\" system has gradually moved to the verge of failure. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July 2019 specifically mentioned that the reduction in reserves brought about by shrinking balance sheet led to sharp fluctuations in short-term interest rates, which also indicated that the liquidity shortage in the U.S. money market had begun to occur at that time. In its statement in October 2019, the Federal Reserve stated that in order to ensure sufficient reserves, the Federal Reserve will conduct regular repurchase operations to inject liquidity into the market and reduce money market risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d32bd62c17d452fb86e4fcb303ff0c7\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Although there was a liquidity shortage in the late stage of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the performance of the U.S. stock market during the entire shrinking balance sheet was still relatively strong and was not significantly impacted.</b>Nearly a year after the last round of shrinking balance sheet began, the U.S. stock market continued its previous upward trend. From the beginning of October 2017 to the end of September 2018, the S&P 500 index rose by 15.2%. Although the stock market experienced a short-term correction afterwards, it was mainly caused by the weakening of fundamentals. The U.S. manufacturing PMI has dropped significantly since the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the beginning of 2019, as the Federal Reserve continues to release \"dovish\" signals, U.S. stocks have also begun to rebound.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/351772ab36f6423fa2db81e5191848ce\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b></p><p><b>The background and purpose of this Fed shrinking balance sheet are different</b></p><p>From the perspective of growth and employment, the two major aspects that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focuses on, compared with the opening of the shrinking balance sheet in October 2017,<b>The macro background during this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different, especially in terms of inflation.</b>Different from the low inflation and low unemployment rate in early 2017, the unemployment rate in the United States is lower but inflation is higher under the background that the labor force participation rate has not yet fully recovered. In March 2022, the U.S. CPI reached 8.5% year-on-year, setting a new high in the past 40 years. Moreover, under the impact of short-term factors such as declining demand for inventory replenishment and a substantial increase in the trade deficit, U.S. GDP fell at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022, and the economy began to show signs of stagflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364e02b9aa714b8e8d9f5964b477ea41\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The background of high inflation determines that the rhythm of this Fed shrinking balance sheet is different.</b>After then Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke released the Taper signal in May 2013, the Federal Reserve really started Taper at the end of 2013. It was not until October 2014 that the Taper ended. After that, it took more than a year for the Federal Reserve to start its rate hike. From the beginning The time lag between Taper and shrinking balance sheet has reached 46 months, and the US federal benchmark interest rate at the beginning of the shrinking balance sheet has reached 1.25%-1.50%.</p><p><b>However, in response to rising inflationary pressures, the pace of this round of Fed shrinking balance sheet is faster than before.</b>Since the release of the Taper signal in the second half of 2021, the Fed's monetary policy normalization process has continued to accelerate. In this round of normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the time interval between the opening of Taper and the shrinking balance sheet is only about half a year, and the pace of tightening is much faster than before. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting stated that it will start a shrinking balance sheet on June 1, and plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $47.5 billion per month, and three months later, it plans to reduce its asset holdings by US $95 billion per month. Not only are the initial shrinking balance sheet size and rhythm much higher than the previous round (US $10 billion/month, increasing by US $10 billion every three months), but the maximum monthly shrinking balance sheet size is also higher than the previous round's US $50 billion per month.<b>Changes in the scale and rhythm of the shrinking balance sheet will cause the current round of the Fed's balance sheet to decline at a faster rate: in the 22 months from October 2017 to August 2019, the size of the Fed's balance sheet decreased by about 700 billion dollars, a decrease of 15.7%. According to the Fed's shrinking balance sheet plan this time, the Fed's balance sheet will drop by the same proportion in about 16-17 months (that is, around October 2023).</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fc764d380f47d1afacc1a0f0e6f5b3\" tg-width=\"1018\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking forward, the Federal Reserve may show greater flexibility in this shrinking balance sheet. On the one hand</b>At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively strong, and the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving unemployment benefits are at historically low levels. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States intensify, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of its shrinking balance sheet, just as it accelerated Taper in December 2021;<b>On the other hand</b>Considering that the U.S. economy was affected by \"temporary factors\" such as a decline in inventory investment and a surge in imports, the annualized rate in the first quarter fell by 1.4%. Regardless of whether these are temporary shocks or not, there is still controversy, but the market and the Federal Reserve's concerns about a \"hard landing\" of the US economy are undoubtedly increasing. Moreover, rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are substitutable to some extent, and the Federal Reserve will carefully weigh the effect of the combination boxing. Therefore, if inflationary pressures in the United States ease in the future, the Federal Reserve may also slow down the pace of its shrinking balance sheet to reduce the impact of monetary policy tightening on the economy. This is also in line with the vague statement at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May that \"it will slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet when it is about to reach the'sufficient level '\".</p><p><b>three</b></p><p><b>The Fed's balance sheet structure and policy tools are different this time</b></p><p><b>Studying the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet operations is inseparable from the discussion of its balance sheet.</b>From the perspective of assets, the assets of the Federal Reserve are mainly securities assets it holds, that is, various Treasury Bond, MBS, etc. it purchased when expanding its balance sheet, accounting for nearly 95%; From the perspective of liabilities, the Fed's liabilities include cash, bank reserves, deposits from the Ministry of Finance and reverse repurchase agreements. The above four items account for more than 99%, especially bank reserves, which account for more than 40%.</p><p><b>From the asset side, compared with October 2017, the proportion of Treasury Bond held by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly, while the proportion of MBS is relatively low.</b>Among them, the proportion of Treasury Bond in the total assets of the Federal Reserve increased from 55.3% in October 2017 to 64.5% at the end of April, and the current holding scale is about 5.7 trillion US dollars. The proportion of MBS in the total assets of the Federal Reserve dropped from 39.7% to 30.4%, but the scale also exceeded US $2.7 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deacf9f83fa94863b6749435963e84b0\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Compared with 2017, the current difference on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet is more obvious, and the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly.</b>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet in October 2017, the general deposits of the Treasury Department and reverse repurchase agreements in the Federal Reserve's liabilities were US $185.1 billion and US $374.9 billion respectively, accounting for 4.2% and 7.9% of the total liabilities, while bank reserves accounted for more than 50%, which also led to the decline of the liability side in the last round of shrinking balance sheet, mainly through the decline of reserve scale. But up to now, the scale and proportion of general deposits and reverse repurchase agreements of the Ministry of Finance have increased significantly. Among them, the scale of general deposits of the Ministry of Finance has reached 957.4 billion US dollars, accounting for 10.8%, and the scale of reverse repurchase agreements has reached 2.09 trillion US dollars, accounting for 23.5%. The sum of the two is close to the reserve scale.</p><p><b>As the current balance sheet structure and policy tools of the Federal Reserve have undergone major changes, shrinking balance sheet's disturbance to liquidity may be relatively low.</b></p><p><b>One is</b>，<b>From the perspective of assets, the decline in the proportion of MBS reduces the uncertainty of shrinking balance sheet.</b>For Treasury Bond, because its maturity date and maturity scale are known, the pace of Treasury Bond's reduction is basically certain. However, there may be some uncertainties in the process of MBS reduction. This mainly stems from: 1) the possibility of prepayment exists in MBS, where borrowers can choose to repay any additional mortgage principal at any time when they sell their home or refinance their mortgage; 2) From the perspective of operational process, the time interval between MBS reinvestment is relatively long, from the time when the principal is received (resulting in a decrease in holdings) to the corresponding new MBS being added to the balance sheet (resulting in an increase in holdings) The time interval can be up to three months. In the last round of shrinking balance sheet, MBS accounted for a relatively high proportion, and the reduction scale was relatively higher, reaching 2/3 of Treasury Bond's reduction scale. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May this year showed that in this round of shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve's reduction of holdings is up to US $60 billion in Treasury Bond and US $35 billion in MBS per month. MBS accounts for a lower proportion of the reduction, which means that this round of shrinking balance sheet Uncertainty is relatively lower.</p><p><b>Second, from the perspective of debt, the increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements means that the liquidity in the market is relatively abundant, which can alleviate the liquidity impact caused by the shrinking balance sheet.</b>The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool is similar to that of my country's central bank's positive repurchase. Both of them sell securities to financial institutions and agree to repurchase them after a period of time to achieve the purpose of recovering excess liquidity in the market. Therefore, in the period of excess liquidity and low market interest rate, non-bank financial institutions will choose to invest their funds in the reverse repurchase agreement of the Federal Reserve in order to obtain stable income. The interest rate of the reverse repurchase agreement thus becomes the lower limit of the Interest Rate Corridor of the Federal Reserve under the sufficient reserve system, and the use of reverse repurchase tools also reflects the abundance of market liquidity to a certain extent.</p><p><b>Why is the current proportion of reverse repurchase agreements much higher than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet? First</b>For banks, there is a cost to hold reserves. After the scale of reserves held by banks increases, the scale of their overall balance sheet will also expand, which will bring higher capital regulatory requirements. Therefore, banks' willingness to hold reserves will not increase indefinitely.<b>Next</b>, the bank's income from holding reserves comes from arbitrage transactions, that is, borrowing funds from non-bank financial institutions at the market repo rate (between the ON RRP rate and the deposit reserve rate), and depositing this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, get interest calculated at the deposit reserve rate. Therefore, the spread between the deposit reserve rate and the ON RRP rate measures the earnings of the carry trade. Before and after the last round of shrinking balance sheet, this spread remained at 25BP, but at present it is only 10BP, which undoubtedly reduced the arbitrage income of banks, thus limiting their willingness to borrow funds from non-bank financial institutions. Therefore, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated in non-bank financial institutions, and non-bank financial institutions can only directly deposit this part of the funds into the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of reverse repurchase agreements at present.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4cda87c13544d67a378bbe07ef52cc1\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The current relative position of the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) also shows that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</b>As mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON RRP) are the upper and lower limits of the Federal Funds rate, respectively. We calculated the difference between IOR and EFFR and the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rate, respectively, representing the distance between short-term interest rates and the upper and lower bounds of interest rates. It can be found that before and after the start of the last round of Fed shrinking balance sheet, the difference between IOR and EFFR was smaller, which means that the short-term interest rate was closer to the upper limit at that time; At present, the difference between EFFR and ON RRP interest rates is smaller, and the short-term interest rate is closer to the lower limit, which reflects that the current liquidity is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db414e1f093d495f92afe454367af548\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet, the liabilities of the Fed's balance sheet were mostly bank reserves. However, the current increase in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements and the fact that the Federal Funds rate (EFFR) is closer to the lower limit of interest rates all indicate that both banks and non-bank financial institutions The liquidity of bank financial institutions is more abundant than at the beginning of the last round of shrinking balance sheet. Therefore, when the Fed recovers liquidity through the shrinking balance sheet, the size of bonds held on the asset side of its balance sheet decreases; For the liability side, the corresponding reduction can be achieved through the reduction in the scale of reverse repurchase agreements (rather than through the reduction in the scale of reserves like the last round of shrinking balance sheet), thereby reducing the impact of shrinking balance sheet on reserves and market liquidity. impact.</p><p><b>Third, the decline in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance will also release certain liquidity</b>。 The high increase in the general deposit scale of the Ministry of Finance is another important feature of this shrinking balance sheet. Similar to the role of my country's fiscal deposits, changes in general deposits of the U.S. Treasury will also disturb market liquidity. Before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, although the size of the general deposits (TGA) of the Ministry of Finance in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve fluctuated to some extent, the total size basically remained below 400 billion US dollars; After the outbreak of the epidemic, the U.S. Treasury Department raised a large amount of financing through the issuance of Treasury Bond, and the scale of TGA rose rapidly, once reaching nearly US $1.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2021, with the introduction of the $1.9 trillion bailout bill, the scale of TGA declined rapidly. In mid-2021, the U.S. government debt hit the upper limit, and it was difficult for the Treasury Department to continue to raise funds through bond issuance. The balance of TGA accounts continued to decline, once falling to less than US $60 billion, releasing a large amount of liquidity to the market in the process. However, after the U.S. government debt ceiling was raised again in December 2021, the Treasury Department quickly rebuilt its cash reserves by issuing Treasury Bond. At the end of April, the size of the TGA account exceeded US $900 billion.<b>Looking forward, U.S. fiscal policy will gradually normalize, and the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department may slowly fall back to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of the year, which will release a certain amount of liquidity to the market and alleviate the liquidity impact brought about by the shrinking balance sheet.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1838d298ba42a98178be4723b1b6f8\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fourth, the launch of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) tool has also reduced the probability of liquidity shortages.</b>Since mid-2019, there have been signs of liquidity shortage in the U.S. financial market, and spot interest rates have continued to exceed the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. In September 2019, under the influence of factors such as tax payment and Treasury Bond issuance, EFFR was once 20BP higher than the deposit reserve interest rate; In March 2020, a \"money shortage\" broke out again in the U.S. financial market. The three-month FRA/OIS spread, which represents future capital borrowing costs, once rose to the highest point since 2008, and the New York Fed's repurchase operations were continuously oversubscribed. Frequent liquidity shortages have attracted the attention of the Federal Reserve: In July 2021, in order to solve possible liquidity shortages during the normalization of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve launched the SRF tool \"in advance\". The facility allows qualified dealers to borrow dollars from the Federal Reserve with Treasury Bond, ABS or MBS as collateral at a certain interest rate (typically set as the cap on the federal funds target rate).</p><p><b>The SRF tool works mainly through two channels: First,</b>, as mentioned earlier, the reserve rate (IOR) will only function as an interest rate ceiling if there is ample liquidity. When liquidity begins to tighten, some financial institutions are willing to borrow funds from the market at a level higher than the IOR, causing short-term interest rates to break through the IOR, which is the interest rate ceiling. Simply put, the function of the SRF tool is to release liquidity to the market at a certain interest rate, thereby reducing the upward pressure on interest rates, just as the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates through repurchase operations in September 2019 before the SRF tool was launched.<b>The second is</b>, the launch of the SRF tool has enhanced the market's confidence in the stability of short-term interest rates, thereby reducing the possibility of large fluctuations in market interest rates. Therefore, this tool can guarantee that the spot rate runs within the range of the target federal funds rate.</p><p><b>In addition, the usage of SRF instruments is also an important window to observe the liquidity situation of financial markets</b>: When the liquidity of the financial market can meet the actual demand, financial institutions can smoothly raise funds through the market, and the use of SRF instruments should be relatively low; When there is a shortage of liquidity in the financial market, financial institutions will turn to the Federal Reserve for liquidity support, and the use of SRF tools will increase accordingly.</p><p><b>four</b></p><p><b>brief summary</b></p><p><b>Generally speaking, compared with the shrinking balance sheet that started in 2017, the intensification of inflationary pressure may lead to a faster pace of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. However, the uncertainty of inflation trends and the risk of a \"hard landing\" of the US economy also make the Fed's subsequent shrinking balance sheet more flexible. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also needs to carefully weigh the camera to observe the effect of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet's \"combination boxing\". The more important difference is that from the perspective of the scale of reverse repurchase agreements, the current liquidity in the U.S. financial market is already excessively abundant. Coupled with the possible decline in the general deposit scale of the Treasury Department and the early launch of SRF tools, this Fed shrinking balance sheet has an impact on the market. The impact of liquidity may not be as good as before.</b></p><p><b>Looking back, the time window for the end of the shrinking balance sheet may be between the end of the Fed's current rate hike and the next interest rate cut.</b>The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated in previous balance sheet operations that the federal funds target rate is its main means to adjust its monetary policy stance. The implication is that shrinking balance sheet and balance sheet expansion are only auxiliary means of its monetary policy. According to data displayed by the CME FedWatch Tool, the current round of rate hike by the Federal Reserve may end in mid-2023. Once the downward pressure on the U.S. economy increases, the Federal Reserve will no longer tighten or even turn to easing again. By then, in order to avoid different policy signals from shrinking balance sheet and interest rate cuts, and in order to maintain the main position of interest rate means in monetary policy, there is a high probability that shrinking balance sheet will \"die down\" by then.</p><p><b>It should be noted that although market liquidity may not be excessively disturbed in the initial stage of the shrinking balance sheet, asset prices may still fluctuate greatly.</b>Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in early May announced that a shrinking balance sheet was about to begin, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once rose to more than 3%, especially the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond soared from 0.07% on May 4 to May 10. 0.34% (while the real interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond on March 1 was only-0.90%), which reflects that the market is further taking into account the impact of shrinking balance sheet. In the same period,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It fluctuated at a high level above 103, causing the exchange rates of most non-US currencies to plummet. U.S. stocks also experienced a significant correction, with the S&P 500 index once falling below the key point of 4,000. Therefore,<b>From the perspective of the impact on asset prices, the impact of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet cannot be underestimated.</b></p><p><b>Risk warning</b>: International geopolitical conflicts are uncertain, inflationary pressure in the United States exceeds expectations, downward pressure on the U.S. economy exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy tightening exceeds expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243019507","content_text":"编者按：2022年5月美国CPI同比达到8.6%，再度超出市场预期，亦更加凸显了美联储加快紧缩的必要性。6月美联储正式开启缩表后，货币市场利率总体上较稳定，但“缩表+加息”对资产价格的叠加冲击依然值得警惕。核心观点2022年5月4日，美联储宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后增加到950亿美元。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。回顾上一轮美联储的缩表过程，可以发现：1）由于缺乏有效的参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，美联储并不急于大规模缩减其资产负债表，从引导紧缩到缩表步伐都相对缓慢；2）为了避免降息与缩表同时进行发出不同的政策信号，并缓解金融市场流动性短缺的情况，美联储于2019年8月提前停止了缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年相比，目前美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。这决定了本次美联储缩表的目的与以往不同，且节奏相对更快。我们估算，2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将表现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍较为强劲，若通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到加息与缩表具有一定替代性。若美国通胀压力有所缓和，为了避免经济“硬着陆”，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐。目前美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具出现了较大变化，尤其是负债端逆回购协议、财政部一般存款的规模和占比明显提升，这使得缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。一是，从资产端来看，规模变化存在较大不确定性的MBS占比下降，使得缩表的不确定性降低。二是，逆回购协议规模大幅上升、短端利率更接近利率下限，意味着市场流动性比上一轮缩表开始前更为充裕，为缩表的流动性冲击提供了更厚的缓冲垫。三是，随着美国财政政策逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的影响。四是，常备回购便利工具的推出可以在一定条件下提供流动性，并稳定市场信心，降低流动性短缺发生的概率。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。自5月美联储议息会议来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其实际利率从3月1日的-0.90%回归至5月10日的0.34%，即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。美债利率的攀升成为美股调整的重要催化。2022年5月4日，美联储公布5月FOMC议息会议声明，宣布将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。这符合3月会议纪要讨论结果，但并未明确缩表终点，只表示将在快达到“充足水平”时减缓缩表节奏。本次美联储缩表与以往有何不同之处？对市场的影响又有何变化？本文尝试对以上问题进行回答。一上一轮美联储货币政策正常化回顾2008年全球金融危机爆发后，为应对经济衰退，美联储推出了零利率、量化宽松等一系列非常规货币政策工具。而随着美国经济趋于稳定复苏，美联储于2013年末正式启动Taper，并在2017年10月开启缩表。而这也是美联储实施非常规货币政策以来唯一的一次缩表操作。因此，有必要对上一轮美联储货币政策正常化进行一定的回顾。美联储上一轮货币政策的正常化始于2013年5月，时任美联储主席伯南克在一次演讲中表示“如果发现美国就业市场持续好转，美联储可能在今后的某一次会议中开始逐步放慢购买资产的速度”，向市场传递了Taper信号。但由于与市场沟通并不充分，金融市场出现了显著波动，即“缩减恐慌（Taper Tantrum）”。2013年12月，美联储议息会议宣布Taper时间表，2014年1-10月逐月削减并最终结束QE。2015年12月，美联储开启了金融危机后的首次加息，但在仅加息25BP后就“浅尝辄止”,直至2016年12月才开始第二次加息，并在此后连续上调政策利率。重点观察上一轮美联储货币政策正常化中的缩表操作。随着美联储加息进程的深入，缩表也被提上日程。2017年10月开始，美联储决定以每月60亿美元、40亿美元的速度缩减其持有的国债、MBS，并在之后的12个月内按照每三个月增加60亿美元、40亿美元的速度递增。直到一年后的2018年10月，美联储缩表速度才达到每月500亿美元（300亿美元国债+200亿美元MBS）的峰值。这或许反映出，由于缺乏有效参照，上一轮缩表中美联储的操作更加谨慎，当时的美联储更希望通过缓慢的、渐进式的缩表，减轻流动性收紧对金融市场的冲击。不过，2019年8月美联储提前停止了缩表。2019年7月议息会议上，美联储宣布将从当年8月起停止缩表，这一举动比原计划提前了2个月。我们认为，当时美联储停止缩表，主要有两方面原因： 一是，为了避免降息与缩表同时进行、发出不同政策信号。2019年8月议息会议上，为了应对低迷的通胀以及全球增长放缓的压力，美联储宣布将联邦基金目标利率下调0.25%。正如美联储反复指出的，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段。言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。因此，当经济下行压力加大，政策利率需要下调时，缩表要“让位”于降息。二是，货币市场开始出现流动性紧缺的情况。全球金融危机后伴随三轮QE的推出，美联储的利率调控机制已经从危机前的“利率走廊”体系（Corridor System）转变为非常规的“利率地板”体系（Floor System）。在“利率地板”体系中，存款准备金利率（IOR）作为利率上限，隔夜逆回购协议（ONRRP）操作利率则为利率下限，在流动性充裕时，联邦基金利率（EFFR）将在二者之间运行。但自2019年中开始，随着流动性的不断缩减，联邦基金利率开始突破作为上限的IOR，“钱荒”事件频发，“利率地板”体系逐渐走向失效边缘。2019年7月美联储议息会议纪要中特别提到，缩表带来的准备金减少导致短端利率大幅波动，也表明当时美国货币市场流动性已开始出现短缺。而在2019年10月美联储的声明中表示，为确保准备金充足，美联储将进行定期回购操作，以向市场注入流动性，降低货币市场风险。虽然上一轮缩表后期出现流动性紧缺，但整个缩表期间美国股市表现仍然较为强劲，并未受到明显冲击。上一轮缩表开始后的近一年时间里，美国股市延续了之前的上涨趋势，2017年10月初至2018年9月末，标普500指数涨幅达到15.2%。虽然之后股市出现短暂回调，但主要是由基本面的转弱所致，美国制造业PMI自2018年四季度开始明显回落。2019年初开始，随着美联储不断释放“鸽派”信号，美股也开始反弹。二本次美联储缩表的背景与目的不同从美联储货币政策关注的两大方面——增长与就业来看，与2017年10月开启缩表相比，本次美联储缩表时的宏观背景有所不同，尤其是通胀方面。与2017年初的低通胀、低失业率不同，目前在劳动参与率尚未完全恢复的背景下，美国的失业率更低，但通胀更高。2022年3月美国CPI同比达到8.5%，创下近40年来新高。并且，在补库存需求下滑、贸易逆差大幅增长等短期因素冲击下，2022年一季度美国GDP环比折年率下滑1.4%，经济开始出现滞胀迹象。高通胀的背景决定了本次美联储缩表的节奏不同。2013年5月时任美联储主席伯南克释放Taper信号后，2013年末美联储才真正开启Taper，直到2014年10月Taper才结束，此后又过了一年多的时间美联储才开始加息，从开始Taper到缩表之间的时滞更是达到了46个月，且开始缩表时的美国联邦基准利率已经达到1.25%-1.50%。但是，为了应对不断加剧的通胀压力，本轮美联储缩表的节奏要快于以往。从2021年下半年释放Taper信号开始，美联储的货币政策正常化进程便不断加速。本轮美联储货币政策正常化中，从开启Taper到缩表之间的时间间隔仅有半年左右，紧缩节奏较之前大大加快。美联储5月议息会议纪要表示将从6月1日开始缩表，每月拟减持475亿美元资产，三个月后每月拟减持950亿美元资产。不仅初始缩表规模、节奏远高于上一轮（100亿美元/月，每三个月增加100亿美元），每月最大缩表规模亦高于上一轮的每月500亿美元。缩表规模与节奏的变化将使得本轮美联储资产负债表将以更快的比例下降：2017年10月至2019年8月这22个月的时间里，美联储资产负债表规模共下降约7000亿美元，降幅15.7%。而若按本次美联储的缩表计划，大约在16-17个月后（即2023年10月前后），美联储的资产负债表就将下降同等比例。往后看，本次缩表中美联储或将呈现出更大的灵活性。一方面，目前美国就业情况仍然较为强劲，失业率、领取失业金人数等均处于历史较低位置。因此，若美国通胀压力加剧，美联储或将加快其缩表步伐，正如2021年12月其加速Taper一样；另一方面，考虑到美国经济在库存投资回落、进口大增等“暂时性因素”的影响下，一季度环比折年率下滑1.4%。不管对于这些是否属于暂时性冲击仍存争议，但市场和美联储对美国经济“硬着陆”的担忧无疑都是在增加的。况且，加息与缩表具有一定替代性，美联储亦会细加权衡组合拳的效应。因此，若后续美国通胀压力有所缓和，美联储也有可能放慢其缩表步伐，以减小货币政策紧缩对经济的冲击。这也符合美联储5月议息会议上“将在快达到‘充足水平’时减缓缩表节奏”的模糊表述。三本次美联储资产负债表结构以及政策工具不同研究美联储的缩表操作离不开对其资产负债表的讨论。从资产端来看，美联储的资产主要是持有的证券资产，即其在扩表时购买的各类国债、MBS等，占比接近95%；从负债端来看，美联储的负债包括现金、银行准备金、财政部存款以及逆回购协议，以上四项占比超过99%，尤其是银行准备金，占比超过40%。从资产端来看，与2017年10月相比，美联储持有的国债占比明显提升，而MBS占比相对较低。其中，国债在美联储总资产中的占比由2017年10月的55.3%上升至4月末的64.5%，目前持有规模约5.7万亿美元。而MBS在美联储总资产中的占比则由39.7%下降至30.4%，但规模也超过了2.7万亿美元。与2017年相比，当前美联储资产负债表负债端的差异更为明显，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比明显提升。2017年10月上一轮缩表开始时，美联储负债中的财政部一般存款、逆回购协议规模分别为1851亿美元、3749亿美元，占总负债的比重为4.2%、7.9%，而银行准备金占比超过50%，这也导致上一轮缩表时负债端的下降主要通过准备金规模下降实现的。但截至目前，财政部一般存款、逆回购协议的规模和占比均有明显提升，其中财政部一般存款规模达到9574亿美元，占比10.8%，逆回购协议规模更是达到2.09万亿美元，占比23.5%，二者之和已经接近准备金规模。由于美联储目前资产负债表结构以及政策工具均出现了较大变化，缩表对于流动性的扰动可能相对较低。 一是，从资产端来看，MBS占比下降使得缩表时的不确定性降低。对于国债来说，由于其到期日、到期规模可知，因而国债的减持步调基本是确定的。但是，MBS的减持过程可能存在一定不确定在。这主要来源于：1） MBS存在提前偿付的可能性，借款人在出售房屋或为抵押贷款再融资时，可以选择随时偿还任何额外的抵押贷款本金；2）从操作流程上看，MBS再投资的时间间隔较长，从收到本金（导致持有量减少）到相应的新 MBS 被添加到资产负债表（导致持有量增加）之间的时间间隔最长可达三个月 。在上一轮缩表时，MBS的占比较高，减持规模相对更高，达到了国债减持规模的2/3。但今年5月美联储议息会议显示，本轮缩表中美联储减持规模最多为每月600亿美元国债、350亿美元MBS，MBS在减持中的占比更低，这意味着本轮缩表的不确定性相对更低。二是，从负债端看，逆回购协议规模上升意味着市场上的流动性较为充裕，可以缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。美联储的逆回购工具与我国央行正回购的功能类似，都是通过向金融机构出售证券，并约定在一段时间后回购，来达到回收市场上多余流动性的目的。因此，在流动性过剩、市场利率较低的时期，非银金融机构为了获取稳定的收益，会选择将资金投向美联储的逆回购协议，逆回购协议利率由此成为充足准备金制度下，美联储利率走廊的下限，逆回购工具的使用量也在一定程度上反映了市场流动性的充裕程度。为何目前逆回购协议的占比均远高于上一轮缩表开始时？首先，对于银行来说，持有准备金是存在成本的。银行持有的准备金规模增加后，其整体资产负债表规模也将扩大，进而带来更高的资本监管要求，因此银行持有准备金的意愿并不会无限增长。其次，银行持有准备金的收益来自于套利交易，即按照市场回购利率（介于ON RRP 利率与存款准备金利率之间）从非银金融机构借入资金，并将这部分资金存入美联储，获得按存款准备金利率计算的利息。因此，存款准备金利率和ON RRP利率之间的价差衡量了套利交易的收益。上一轮缩表开始前后，这一利差保持在25BP，而目前仅为10BP，这无疑使得银行的套利收益下降，进而限制了其从非银金融机构借入资金的意愿。因而，大量的流动性淤积在非银金融机构中，非银金融机构只能直接将这部分资金存入美联储，导致目前逆回购协议的占比明显提升。目前联邦基金利率（EFFR）的相对位置同样表明，目前流动性较上轮缩表开始时更为充裕。如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）分别是联邦基金利率的上限和下限。我们分别计算了IOR与EFFR之差和EFFR与ON RRP利率之差，代表短期利率距离利率上限与下限的距离。可以发现，在上一轮美联储缩表开始前后，IOR与EFFR之间的差值更小，代表当时短端利率距离上限更为接近；而在目前，EFFR与ON RRP 利率的差值更小，短端利率距离下限更为接近，反映出的即是目前的流动性较上轮缩表开始时更加充裕。上一轮缩表开始时，美联储资产负债表负债端多为银行准备金，但目前逆回购协议规模的大增、以及联邦基金利率（EFFR）更接近利率下限，均表明无论是银行还是非银金融机构的流动性，均较上一轮缩表开始时更为充裕。因此，当美联储通过缩表回收流动性时，其资产负债表资产端持有的债券规模下降；而对于负债端来说，可通过逆回购协议规模的下降（而非像上一轮缩表一样，通过准备金规模的下降），实现相应的缩减，进而降低缩表对于准备金及市场流动性的冲击。三是，财政部一般存款规模的下降也将释放一定流动性。财政部一般存款规模的高增也是本次缩表时的另一项重要特点。与我国财政存款的作用类似，美国财政部一般存款的变动也会对市场流动性形成扰动。新冠疫情爆发前，美联储资产负债表中财政部一般存款（TGA）规模虽然有一定波动，但总规模基本保持在4000亿美元以下；疫情爆发后，美国财政部通过发行国债大量融资，TGA规模迅速上升，一度达到近1.8万亿美元的天量。2021年一季度，随着1.9万亿美元纾困法案的推出，TGA规模迅速下降。2021年中美国政府债务触及上限，财政部难以继续通过发债融资，TGA账户余额不断下降，一度降至不到600亿美元，在此过程中向市场释放了大量流动性。但2021年12月美国政府债务上限再次调升后，财政部通过发行国债迅速重建了其现金储备，4月末TGA账户规模已超过9000亿美元。往后看，美国财政政策也将逐步正常化，财政部一般存款规模可能会在下半年缓慢回落至疫情前水平，进而会向市场释放一定流动性，缓解缩表带来的流动性冲击。四是，常备回购便利（Standing Repo Facility，SRF）工具的推出也降低了流动性短缺发生的概率。2019年中开始，美国金融市场流动性便出现短缺迹象，即期利率不断突破联邦基金目标利率上限。2019年9月，在缴税及国债发行等因素的影响下，EFFR一度高于存款准备金利率20BP；2020年3月美国金融市场再度爆发“钱荒”，代表未来资金借贷成本的3个月FRA/OIS利差一度升至2008年以来高点，纽约联储回购操作连续遭超额认购。频繁发生的流动性短缺状况引发了美联储的关注：2021年7月，为了解决货币政策正常化过程中可能出现的流动性短缺问题，美联储“未雨绸缪”的推出了SRF工具。该工具允许合格交易商以国债、ABS或MBS为抵押品，以一定利率（通常被设定为联邦基金目标利率的上限）从美联储借入美元。SRF工具主要通过两个渠道发挥作用：一是，如前所述，准备金利率（IOR）只有在流动性充裕的情况下才会发挥利率上限的作用。当流动性开始紧张时，部分金融机构愿意以高于IOR的水平从市场借入资金，导致短端利率突破作为利率上限的IOR。SRF工具的功能简单来说便是，以一定的利率向市场释放流动性，进而降低利率的上行压力，正如2019年9月SRF工具尚未推出时，美联储通过回购操作压低短期利率一样。二是，SRF工具的推出增强了市场对于短期利率稳定的信心，进而降低了市场利率大幅波动的可能性。因此，该工具可以保证即期利率运行在联邦基金目标利率范围内。另外，SRF工具的使用量也是观察金融市场流动性状况的重要窗口：在金融市场流动性可以满足实际需求时，金融机构可通过市场顺利融资，SRF工具使用量应相对较低；而当金融市场流动性出现短缺时，金融机构会转而向美联储寻求流动性支持，SRF工具使用量也会相应上升。四小结总的来说，与2017年开启的缩表相比，通胀压力的加剧导致本次美联储缩表的节奏可能更快，但通胀走势的不确定性、以及美国经济“硬着陆”的风险，也使得美联储后续缩表的灵活性更强。与此同时，美联储也需细加权衡相机观察加息与缩表“组合拳”的效应。更重要的区别在于，从逆回购协议规模来看，目前美国金融市场的流动性已过度充裕，叠加后续财政部一般存款规模可能下降以及SRF工具的提前推出，本次美联储缩表对市场流动性的冲击或不及以往。 往后看，缩表结束的时间窗口或许在美联储本轮加息结束到下次降息之间。美联储在以往的资产负债表操作中曾多次声明，联邦基金目标利率是其调整货币政策立场的主要手段，言外之意即是，缩表与扩表只是其货币政策的辅助手段。根据CME FedWatch Tool显示的数据，美联储本轮加息或将于2023年中结束。一旦之后美国经济下行压力加大，美联储将不再紧缩甚至再次转向宽松。届时，为了避免缩表与降息发出不同的政策信号，为了保持利率手段在货币政策中的主要地位，届时缩表大概率亦将“偃旗息鼓”。需要注意的是，尽管缩表初期市场流动性或许不会受到过大扰动，但资产价格仍然可能出现巨大波动。自5月初美联储议息会议宣布即将开启缩表以来，10年美债收益率一度上行至3%以上，尤其是10年期美债实际利率从5月4日的0.07%蹿升至5月10日的0.34%（而3月1日10年期美债实际利率仅为-0.90%），即体现了市场在进一步计入缩表的影响。同期，美元指数在103以上高位震荡，导致多数非美货币汇率急跌。美股也出现了明显回调，标普500指数一度跌至4000这一关键点位之下。因此，从对资产价格的影响来看，美联储缩表的冲击依然不可小觑。风险提示：国际地缘冲突具有不确定性，美国通胀压力超预期，美国经济下行压力超预期，美联储政策紧缩力度超预期等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051546688,"gmtCreate":1654730514844,"gmtModify":1676535498085,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051546688","repostId":"2242418978","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2242418978","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1654729288,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242418978?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-09 07:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down with U.S. Treasury Yields above 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242418978","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Chip stocks tumble after Citi sounds alarm on Intel* Investors cautious ahead of CPI data on Frida","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Chip stocks tumble after Citi sounds alarm on Intel</p><p>* Investors cautious ahead of CPI data on Friday</p><p>U.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday as Treasury yields rose above the psychologically important level of 3% and oil prices jumped, fanning worries about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.</p><p>The technology sector  fell, with shares of Intel Corp dropping after Citi Research said the chipmaker could pre-announce weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. Other chip shares also declined.</p><p>Brent crude oil prices rose above $123 a barrel and hit a 13-week high, while the Dow Jones transportation average significantly underperformed the other main indexes on the day.</p><p>&#34;The 10-year Treasury yield is up over 3%. That&#39;s probably part of why we&#39;re seeing the drawdown in the market today,&#34; said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p><p>&#34;That level is what people are focused on because it represents an increase in interest rates and a reflection of inflation and market volatility.&#34;</p><p>U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose  after the U.S. Treasury Department saw tepid demand for a sale of 10-year notes.</p><p>According to preliminary data, the S&amp;P 500 lost 45.18 points, or 1.09%, to end at 4,115.50 points, while the Nasdaq Composite    lost 90.15 points, or 0.74%, to 12,085.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 273.57 points, or 0.82%, to 32,906.57.</p><p>Investors are also cautious ahead of U.S. consumer price data on Friday morning. The report is expected to show that inflation remained elevated in May, though core consumer prices - which exclude the volatile food and energy sectors - likely ticked down on an annual basis.</p><p>&#34;People looking for the peak inflation narrative keep getting hit in the face every day as energy goes up,&#34; said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.</p><p>The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at each of its June and July meetings, with a similar move also likely in September, in an effort to combat inflation.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down with U.S. Treasury Yields above 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Ends down with U.S. Treasury Yields above 3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-09 07:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Chip stocks tumble after Citi sounds alarm on Intel</p><p>* Investors cautious ahead of CPI data on Friday</p><p>U.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday as Treasury yields rose above the psychologically important level of 3% and oil prices jumped, fanning worries about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.</p><p>The technology sector  fell, with shares of Intel Corp dropping after Citi Research said the chipmaker could pre-announce weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. Other chip shares also declined.</p><p>Brent crude oil prices rose above $123 a barrel and hit a 13-week high, while the Dow Jones transportation average significantly underperformed the other main indexes on the day.</p><p>&#34;The 10-year Treasury yield is up over 3%. That&#39;s probably part of why we&#39;re seeing the drawdown in the market today,&#34; said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p><p>&#34;That level is what people are focused on because it represents an increase in interest rates and a reflection of inflation and market volatility.&#34;</p><p>U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose  after the U.S. Treasury Department saw tepid demand for a sale of 10-year notes.</p><p>According to preliminary data, the S&amp;P 500 lost 45.18 points, or 1.09%, to end at 4,115.50 points, while the Nasdaq Composite    lost 90.15 points, or 0.74%, to 12,085.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 273.57 points, or 0.82%, to 32,906.57.</p><p>Investors are also cautious ahead of U.S. consumer price data on Friday morning. The report is expected to show that inflation remained elevated in May, though core consumer prices - which exclude the volatile food and energy sectors - likely ticked down on an annual basis.</p><p>&#34;People looking for the peak inflation narrative keep getting hit in the face every day as energy goes up,&#34; said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.</p><p>The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at each of its June and July meetings, with a similar move also likely in September, in an effort to combat inflation.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","INTC":"英特尔","BK4527":"明星科技股","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4575":"芯片概念","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4515":"5G概念","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242418978","content_text":"* Chip stocks tumble after Citi sounds alarm on Intel* Investors cautious ahead of CPI data on FridayU.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday as Treasury yields rose above the psychologically important level of 3% and oil prices jumped, fanning worries about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.The technology sector  fell, with shares of Intel Corp dropping after Citi Research said the chipmaker could pre-announce weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. Other chip shares also declined.Brent crude oil prices rose above $123 a barrel and hit a 13-week high, while the Dow Jones transportation average significantly underperformed the other main indexes on the day.\"The 10-year Treasury yield is up over 3%. That's probably part of why we're seeing the drawdown in the market today,\" said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.\"That level is what people are focused on because it represents an increase in interest rates and a reflection of inflation and market volatility.\"U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose  after the U.S. Treasury Department saw tepid demand for a sale of 10-year notes.According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 45.18 points, or 1.09%, to end at 4,115.50 points, while the Nasdaq Composite    lost 90.15 points, or 0.74%, to 12,085.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 273.57 points, or 0.82%, to 32,906.57.Investors are also cautious ahead of U.S. consumer price data on Friday morning. The report is expected to show that inflation remained elevated in May, though core consumer prices - which exclude the volatile food and energy sectors - likely ticked down on an annual basis.\"People looking for the peak inflation narrative keep getting hit in the face every day as energy goes up,\" said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at each of its June and July meetings, with a similar move also likely in September, in an effort to combat inflation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MNQmain":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DJX":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"INTC":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056652856,"gmtCreate":1655007135275,"gmtModify":1676535547705,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056652856","repostId":"2242306965","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242306965","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655005845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242306965?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-12 11:50","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242306965","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Investment ThesisSince our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2><b>Investment Thesis</b></h2><p>Since our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.59%, from $92.67 on 17 May 2022 to $109.90 on 9 June 2022. It is evident that the recovery has been swift, given the multiple positive tailwinds in its direction. However, with the shaky Chinese stock market, it is uncertain if the gains could hold and trigger a bull run for BABA.</p><p>However, if we were to split up China&#39;s unrelenting COVID-19 strategies and the potential easing of big tech punishment, BABA&#39;s recovery is almost certain, given its good execution in FQ4&#39;22. That would be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> highly welcomed news, given how dreary the stock market looks right now, given that BABA had recovered 28.04% of its value in the past month compared to S&amp;P 500 Index at 0.42%. Opportune investors would be well advised to take advantage of the current bear market to add more undervalued stocks to their portfolios, since it is entirely possible that the time of maximum pain is over.</p><p>Nevertheless, investors hoping for the revival of ANT IPO would definitely be disappointed, since the Chinese government denied the news report, leading to a -8.13% stock decline from $119.62 on 8 June 2022.</p><h2>BABA Closed Off FY2022 Beautifully Despite Macro Issues</h2><p><b>BABA Revenue and Gross Income</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bddd3fb20de09e66cd1e37175083889\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>In FQ4&#39;22, BABA reported revenues of $32.18B, representing excellent YoY growth of 12.51%, despite the enforced lockdowns in multiple Chinese cities. Though the company&#39;s declining gross margins may worry some investors, we could attribute it partly to the inflation caused by global supply chain issues and China&#39;s Zero Covid Policy and reinvestments into its businesses, and therefore, temporary.</p><p><b>BABA Revenue By Segment</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5beecf897ef22504ee5d40ec234fb7c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>It is evident that BABA&#39;s e-commerce segment continues to be the revenue driver, with 13.1% YoY growth while accounting for the majority of its revenue at 86.6%. Its cloud segment also reported remarkable growth with an increase of 16.7% increase YoY, despite the impact of COVID restrictions and reduced demand from the tech industry.</p><p><b>BABA Net Income and Net Income Margin</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dc8d3c27a586f36ff581a18d27e41c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>BABA&#39;s net income also grew from -$0.82B in FQ4&#39;21 to $0.45B in FQ4&#39;22, thereby improving its net income margins YoY from -2.9% to 2.8%, respectively.</p><p><b>BABA Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF Margins</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4595749199296e7f0bad57afe634ddd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Nonetheless, it is also apparent that the generation of BABA&#39;s previously robust free cash flows is declining, given the decreasing profitability and its payment towards the Anti-monopoly fine at approximately $1.36B. However, since the latter represents the final payment towards the Chinese government, we may expect improved FCF from FQ1&#39;23 onwards.</p><p><b>BABA Operating Expense</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09cc638b935d072afe2e931e33e1995\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Given BABA&#39;s continuous efforts to improve its operating efficiencies by cutting jobs in March 2022 and enhancing its logistical costs, we may also see improved operating margins moving ahead. We can see hints of these improvements in FQ4&#39;22, where the company spent $7.19B in its operating expenses in FQ4&#39;22, representing a 25% decrease QoQ in R&amp;D, Selling/Marketing, and General/Administrative expenses. Assuming that BABA continues on this cost reduction path, we are confident of BABA&#39;s capabilities in improving its profitability moving forward.</p><p><b>BABA Projected Revenue and Net Income</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab3c1f73050159ba48c5b0ef34aaaef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Since our previous analysis in May 2022, BABA&#39;s revenue growth has been upgraded from a CAGR of 7.09% to 9.33%, though its net income is projected to grow even faster from a CAGR of 38.94% to 56.53%. For FY2023, consensus estimates also upgraded its revenue growth to 3.62% YoY, thereby underlining their optimistic view on the recovery of BABA stock and the overall Chinese market. Assuming the stabilization of the Chinese economy as per the government&#39;s intention with a GDP target of 5.5%, we could potentially see an upwards rerating of BABA&#39;s projected revenue and net income growth moving forward. We shall see.</p><h2><b>So, Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h2><p><b>BABA 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30d659fd1b639f4a0b0ba027100df036\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>BABA is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 1.92x and NTM P/E of 14.73x, lower than its 5Y mean of 6.29x and 25.10x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $109.90, down 52.4% from its 52 weeks high of $230.89, though already at a 49.9% premium from its 52 weeks low of $73.28.</p><p><b>BABA 5Y Stock Price</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57cbc8c4a7a3a3577e51256f83f2e97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Nonetheless, given the consensus estimates price target of $170.89 for BABA, investors who add now would still have a 55.5% upside from current prices. It is also evident from the chart that its pre-pandemic prices stand at $170s before rallying to over $300 during the ANT IPO hype.</p><p>Therefore, it is not too late to back up the truck and load up on BABA now.</p><p>Therefore, we <i>rate BABA stock as a Buy.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-12 11:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517691-alibaba-fomo-do-not-miss-boat-again><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment ThesisSince our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.59%, from $92.67 on 17 May 2022 to $109.90 on 9 June 2022. It is evident that the recovery has been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517691-alibaba-fomo-do-not-miss-boat-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517691-alibaba-fomo-do-not-miss-boat-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242306965","content_text":"Investment ThesisSince our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.59%, from $92.67 on 17 May 2022 to $109.90 on 9 June 2022. It is evident that the recovery has been swift, given the multiple positive tailwinds in its direction. However, with the shaky Chinese stock market, it is uncertain if the gains could hold and trigger a bull run for BABA.However, if we were to split up China's unrelenting COVID-19 strategies and the potential easing of big tech punishment, BABA's recovery is almost certain, given its good execution in FQ4'22. That would be one highly welcomed news, given how dreary the stock market looks right now, given that BABA had recovered 28.04% of its value in the past month compared to S&P 500 Index at 0.42%. Opportune investors would be well advised to take advantage of the current bear market to add more undervalued stocks to their portfolios, since it is entirely possible that the time of maximum pain is over.Nevertheless, investors hoping for the revival of ANT IPO would definitely be disappointed, since the Chinese government denied the news report, leading to a -8.13% stock decline from $119.62 on 8 June 2022.BABA Closed Off FY2022 Beautifully Despite Macro IssuesBABA Revenue and Gross IncomeS&P Capital IQIn FQ4'22, BABA reported revenues of $32.18B, representing excellent YoY growth of 12.51%, despite the enforced lockdowns in multiple Chinese cities. Though the company's declining gross margins may worry some investors, we could attribute it partly to the inflation caused by global supply chain issues and China's Zero Covid Policy and reinvestments into its businesses, and therefore, temporary.BABA Revenue By SegmentS&P Capital IQIt is evident that BABA's e-commerce segment continues to be the revenue driver, with 13.1% YoY growth while accounting for the majority of its revenue at 86.6%. Its cloud segment also reported remarkable growth with an increase of 16.7% increase YoY, despite the impact of COVID restrictions and reduced demand from the tech industry.BABA Net Income and Net Income MarginS&P Capital IQBABA's net income also grew from -$0.82B in FQ4'21 to $0.45B in FQ4'22, thereby improving its net income margins YoY from -2.9% to 2.8%, respectively.BABA Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF MarginsS&P Capital IQNonetheless, it is also apparent that the generation of BABA's previously robust free cash flows is declining, given the decreasing profitability and its payment towards the Anti-monopoly fine at approximately $1.36B. However, since the latter represents the final payment towards the Chinese government, we may expect improved FCF from FQ1'23 onwards.BABA Operating ExpenseS&P Capital IQGiven BABA's continuous efforts to improve its operating efficiencies by cutting jobs in March 2022 and enhancing its logistical costs, we may also see improved operating margins moving ahead. We can see hints of these improvements in FQ4'22, where the company spent $7.19B in its operating expenses in FQ4'22, representing a 25% decrease QoQ in R&D, Selling/Marketing, and General/Administrative expenses. Assuming that BABA continues on this cost reduction path, we are confident of BABA's capabilities in improving its profitability moving forward.BABA Projected Revenue and Net IncomeS&P Capital IQSince our previous analysis in May 2022, BABA's revenue growth has been upgraded from a CAGR of 7.09% to 9.33%, though its net income is projected to grow even faster from a CAGR of 38.94% to 56.53%. For FY2023, consensus estimates also upgraded its revenue growth to 3.62% YoY, thereby underlining their optimistic view on the recovery of BABA stock and the overall Chinese market. Assuming the stabilization of the Chinese economy as per the government's intention with a GDP target of 5.5%, we could potentially see an upwards rerating of BABA's projected revenue and net income growth moving forward. We shall see.So, Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?BABA 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQBABA is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 1.92x and NTM P/E of 14.73x, lower than its 5Y mean of 6.29x and 25.10x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $109.90, down 52.4% from its 52 weeks high of $230.89, though already at a 49.9% premium from its 52 weeks low of $73.28.BABA 5Y Stock PriceSeeking AlphaNonetheless, given the consensus estimates price target of $170.89 for BABA, investors who add now would still have a 55.5% upside from current prices. It is also evident from the chart that its pre-pandemic prices stand at $170s before rallying to over $300 during the ANT IPO hype.Therefore, it is not too late to back up the truck and load up on BABA now.Therefore, we rate BABA stock as a Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1,"09988":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994790190,"gmtCreate":1661689023214,"gmtModify":1676536561298,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994790190","repostId":"1175369432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175369432","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661663001,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175369432?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 13:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Ideal responds to the delayed delivery of L9: due to the delay in supply from the Sichuan range extender factory","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175369432","media":"中新经纬","summary":"据悉，理想L9此前预计8月底开始交付。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Niu Chaoge</p><p>On the 28th, in response to the delayed delivery of Ideal L9 reported online,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>The customer service staff confirmed, \"Due to the power shortage in Sichuan, the supply of Li Auto's range extender factory in Mianyang, Sichuan was delayed, resulting in the delay in the delivery of the ideal L9.\"</p><p>According to online information, Li Auto released the \"Ideal L9 Delivery Time Extension Announcement\" in the official App.</p><p>\"The announcement of delayed delivery will only be pushed to the car owner who placed the order, and other users will not receive it.\" The above customer service said.</p><p>According to screenshots posted by netizens, for users who show delivery within August in the Li Auto App, it is expected that the delivery will be carried out for users from August 30 to September 4. If the user can't deliver the car until September due to the delay of the vehicle, the official A 1,000 yuan fuel card will be provided as user compensation. The App shows users delivered in September, and the vehicle will still be delivered within September.</p><p>\"The specific extension time still requires communication between the owner and the delivery expert. I am not a user who has placed an order, and I can't see the announcement.\" The above customer service said.</p><p>It is reported that the Ideal L9 was previously expected to start delivery at the end of August. It is worth noting that in the second quarter financial report meeting, Ideal's senior executives gave pessimistic expectations for the delivery volume of 27,000 to 29,000 vehicles in the third quarter.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"zxjw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ideal responds to the delayed delivery of L9: due to the delay in supply from the Sichuan range extender factory</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIdeal responds to the delayed delivery of L9: due to the delay in supply from the Sichuan range extender factory\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中新经纬</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-28 13:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Niu Chaoge</p><p>On the 28th, in response to the delayed delivery of Ideal L9 reported online,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>The customer service staff confirmed, \"Due to the power shortage in Sichuan, the supply of Li Auto's range extender factory in Mianyang, Sichuan was delayed, resulting in the delay in the delivery of the ideal L9.\"</p><p>According to online information, Li Auto released the \"Ideal L9 Delivery Time Extension Announcement\" in the official App.</p><p>\"The announcement of delayed delivery will only be pushed to the car owner who placed the order, and other users will not receive it.\" The above customer service said.</p><p>According to screenshots posted by netizens, for users who show delivery within August in the Li Auto App, it is expected that the delivery will be carried out for users from August 30 to September 4. If the user can't deliver the car until September due to the delay of the vehicle, the official A 1,000 yuan fuel card will be provided as user compensation. The App shows users delivered in September, and the vehicle will still be delivered within September.</p><p>\"The specific extension time still requires communication between the owner and the delivery expert. I am not a user who has placed an order, and I can't see the announcement.\" The above customer service said.</p><p>It is reported that the Ideal L9 was previously expected to start delivery at the end of August. It is worth noting that in the second quarter financial report meeting, Ideal's senior executives gave pessimistic expectations for the delivery volume of 27,000 to 29,000 vehicles in the third quarter.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml\">中新经纬</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd0e1f3d1695da2f5dabecfbac4bc57","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/08-28/500954.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175369432","content_text":"作者：牛朝阁28日，针对网传理想L9延期交付一事，理想汽车客服人员给予了确认，“因四川地区电力紧张，理想汽车在四川绵阳的增程器工厂供应延迟，导致理想L9交付延期。”据网传信息显示，理想汽车在官方App中发布了“理想L9交付时间延期公告”。“延期交付的公告只会推送给下订单的车主，其他用户不会收到。”上述客服表示。根据网友晒出的截图，对于在理想汽车App内显示8月内交付的用户，预计将在8月30日至9月4日为用户进行交付，由于车辆延期导致用户9月才能交车的，官方将提供1000元油卡作为用户补偿。App内显示9月交付的用户，车辆则仍会在9月内完成交付。“具体的延期时间还需要车主和交付专家沟通。我也不是已下订单用户，也看不到公告。”上述客服表示。据悉，理想L9此前预计8月底开始交付。值得注意的是，在二季度财报会中，理想高层人员曾对三季度交付量给出了2.7万辆至2.9万辆的悲观预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"02015":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071291580,"gmtCreate":1657532629040,"gmtModify":1676536021203,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a>..","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SCHD\">$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$</a>..","text":"$Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD)$..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/024a09a8790b76d21e866865e8ff2bae","width":"1242","height":"1968"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071291580","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998617207,"gmtCreate":1660979244610,"gmtModify":1676536434849,"author":{"id":"4116924152740332","authorId":"4116924152740332","name":"kuro123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4116924152740332","idStr":"4116924152740332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998617207","repostId":"2260437405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2260437405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660960527,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2260437405?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 09:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Senior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260437405","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储高官们最近的频频发生暗示，控制通胀仍然是美联储的首要目标，即便加息可能会将美国经济拖入衰退。市场认为，这可能是在为下周五美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行大会上的鹰派讲话预热。下周，最令全球投资者瞩目的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, senior Fed officials have frequently hinted that controlling inflation remains the Fed's primary goal, even if rate hike may drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes that this may be a warm-up for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish speech at the global central bank meeting next Friday. Next week, one of the financial events that attracts the most attention of global investors will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting to be held in Wyoming, USA next Friday, August 26th. At this event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, and the content of his speech may indicate the direction of borrowing costs in the United States.</p><p><b>Before Powell's views, other senior Fed officials have recently made hawkish remarks, which seem to be \"setting the tone\" for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Fed watchers expect Powell to speak hawkish as he reinforces the central bank's goal of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, August 19, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if inflation leads the economy into recession.</b></p><p>Just a day ago, three senior Fed officials made hawkish comments.</p><p><b>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, the Fed's big hawk, said he preferred the Fed's September rate hike of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Bullard said he was considering supporting another sharp rate hike at the Fed's interest rate meeting next month, adding that he was not ready for the economy to have experienced the worst of surging inflation:</p><p>We should continue to quickly raise policy rates to levels that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike should be put off until next year. When talking about next month's interest rate meeting, he said:</p><p>I'm now leaning towards rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good read of the economy and we have very high inflation, so I think it makes sense to continue raising policy rates and move into a range where we can control inflation.<b>On the same day, another hawkish Fed official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed similar views. She believes that U.S. inflation, while it may be easing, is still on the high side:</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data for July is encouraging, but it seems too hasty to declare the Biden administration's victory in fighting inflation.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who has always been regarded as a dovish official of the Federal Reserve, believed that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% before the end of the year to cool inflation:</b></p><p>We need to raise interest rates, at least to a neutral level, around 3%, but probably into restrictive territory.<b>Daly further said that the specific rate hike in September depends on the next economic data. 50 basis points or 75 basis points may be an appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Although Daly's statement is relatively moderate, because she has always been relatively dovish, her claimed possible rate hike of 75 basis points still broke the market's expectation that the Fed would suspend rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She went further:</b></p><p><b>We don't want the market to think that the Fed's path is hump-shaped, that is, a rapid rate hike this year and a big rate cut next year.</b><b>How does the market react?</b></p><p><b>The market this week seems to have begun to react to the hawkish views of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Major U.S. stock indexes have all fallen this week. The Nasdaq and S&P, which rose more than 3% last week, fell 2.62% and 1.21% respectively. The Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 2.38%, both ending as of last week. The longest winning streak since November last year, set by four consecutive weeks of gains; The Dow, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% and fell back after rebounding last week; The Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, ranking first in decline.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has risen by 40 basis points this month.</p><p>In addition, hawkish comments from senior Fed officials caused the dollar to soar,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The cryptocurrency's performance also appears to have been rippled by the Fed's hawkish stance, with a plunge on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates next year</b></p><p>Although the market believes that the Fed will \"do what it says\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year are getting higher and higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>According to Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Institute:</p><p>To bring inflation down to its 2% target, the Fed will have to suppress the economy.<b>But, in order to promote growth, the Fed will \"accept living with inflation\" at some point.</b>This dovish pivot is unlikely to happen anytime soon compared to what the market seems to expect right now, but this dovish pivot could come in 2023.</body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Senior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSenior Fed officials frequently voice hawks to \"set the tone\" for Powell's central bank meeting next week in advance?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-20 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, senior Fed officials have frequently hinted that controlling inflation remains the Fed's primary goal, even if rate hike may drag the U.S. economy into recession. The market believes that this may be a warm-up for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish speech at the global central bank meeting next Friday. Next week, one of the financial events that attracts the most attention of global investors will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting to be held in Wyoming, USA next Friday, August 26th. At this event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech to discuss the economic outlook, and the content of his speech may indicate the direction of borrowing costs in the United States.</p><p><b>Before Powell's views, other senior Fed officials have recently made hawkish remarks, which seem to be \"setting the tone\" for Powell's speech.</b></p><p>Fed watchers expect Powell to speak hawkish as he reinforces the central bank's goal of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.</p><p><b>On Friday, August 19, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the Fed must continue to fight inflation even if inflation leads the economy into recession.</b></p><p>Just a day ago, three senior Fed officials made hawkish comments.</p><p><b>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, the Fed's big hawk, said he preferred the Fed's September rate hike of 75 basis points.</b></p><p>Bullard said he was considering supporting another sharp rate hike at the Fed's interest rate meeting next month, adding that he was not ready for the economy to have experienced the worst of surging inflation:</p><p>We should continue to quickly raise policy rates to levels that will put significant downward pressure on inflation. I really don't understand why rate hike should be put off until next year. When talking about next month's interest rate meeting, he said:</p><p>I'm now leaning towards rate hike 75 basis points again. I think we have a relatively good read of the economy and we have very high inflation, so I think it makes sense to continue raising policy rates and move into a range where we can control inflation.<b>On the same day, another hawkish Fed official, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, expressed similar views. She believes that U.S. inflation, while it may be easing, is still on the high side:</b></p><p>The U.S. CPI data for July is encouraging, but it seems too hasty to declare the Biden administration's victory in fighting inflation.<b>On Thursday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who has always been regarded as a dovish official of the Federal Reserve, believed that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates \"slightly\" above 3% before the end of the year to cool inflation:</b></p><p>We need to raise interest rates, at least to a neutral level, around 3%, but probably into restrictive territory.<b>Daly further said that the specific rate hike in September depends on the next economic data. 50 basis points or 75 basis points may be an appropriate rate hike range.</b></p><p><b>Although Daly's statement is relatively moderate, because she has always been relatively dovish, her claimed possible rate hike of 75 basis points still broke the market's expectation that the Fed would suspend rate hike or significantly narrow its rate hike.</b></p><p><b>She went further:</b></p><p><b>We don't want the market to think that the Fed's path is hump-shaped, that is, a rapid rate hike this year and a big rate cut next year.</b><b>How does the market react?</b></p><p><b>The market this week seems to have begun to react to the hawkish views of the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Major U.S. stock indexes have all fallen this week. The Nasdaq and S&P, which rose more than 3% last week, fell 2.62% and 1.21% respectively. The Nasdaq 100, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 2.38%, both ending as of last week. The longest winning streak since November last year, set by four consecutive weeks of gains; The Dow, which rose nearly 3% last week, fell 0.16% and fell back after rebounding last week; The Russell 2000, which rose nearly 5% last week, fell 2.94%, ranking first in decline.</p><p>The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond has risen by 40 basis points this month.</p><p>In addition, hawkish comments from senior Fed officials caused the dollar to soar,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>It surged 2% this week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba50522a5146d203646cf9defca7a42f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The cryptocurrency's performance also appears to have been rippled by the Fed's hawkish stance, with a plunge on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d3b186336496f29f7cb014dac4410\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates next year</b></p><p>Although the market believes that the Fed will \"do what it says\" and implement its hawkish stance this year, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates next year are getting higher and higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3263305c8596c88b8e08bf2006e1cf14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>According to Ann-Katrin Petersen, senior investment strategist at the Investment Institute:</p><p>To bring inflation down to its 2% target, the Fed will have to suppress the economy.<b>But, in order to promote growth, the Fed will \"accept living with inflation\" at some point.</b>This dovish pivot is unlikely to happen anytime soon compared to what the market seems to expect right now, but this dovish pivot could come in 2023.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668238\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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Barkin）表示，即使通胀导致经济陷入衰退，美联储也必须继续对抗通胀。就在一天前，三位美联储高官纷纷发表鹰派言论。美联储大鹰派圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）表示，他倾向于美联储9月加息75个基点。布拉德说，他正在考虑在下个月的美联储议息会议上支持再次大幅加息，并补充说他还没有准备好经济已经经历了通胀飙升的最糟糕时期：我们应该继续迅速将政策利率提高到将对通胀造成重大下行压力的水平。我真的不明白为什么要将加息拖到明年。在谈到下个月的议息会议时，他说：我现在倾向于再次加息75个基点。我认为我们对经济的解读相对较好，而且我们的通胀率非常高，所以我认为继续提高政策利率并进入能够控制通胀的区间是有意义的。同一天，另一位美联储鹰派官员堪萨斯城联储主席乔治（Esther George）也表达了类似的观点。她认为，美国通胀虽然可能正在趋于缓和，但仍然偏高：美国7月CPI数据是鼓舞人心的，但现在就宣布拜登政府抗通胀取得胜利还显得操之过急。周四，向来被视作美联储鸽派官员的旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary Daly）则认为，美联储应在年底前将利率“略微”提高到3%以上，以冷却通胀：我们需要提高利率，至少达到中性水平，约为3%，但可能会进入限制性区域。戴利进一步称，具体9月加息多少，要看接下来的经济数据，50个基点或者75个基点，都可能是合适的加息幅度。尽管戴利的表态相对温和，但由于她向来相对鸽派，她所称的可能加息75个基点，依然打破了市场对美联储暂停加息或者大幅收窄加息幅度的期待。她还进一步说：我们不希望市场认为美联储的路径是驼峰形的，即今年迅速加息，明年再大举降息。市场如何反应？本周的市场，似乎已经开始对美联储的鹰派观点做出反应。本周主要美股指均累计下跌，上周涨超3%的纳指和标普分别累跌2.62%和1.21%，上周涨近3%的纳斯达克100累跌2.38%，均结束截至上周连涨四周所创的去年11月以来最长连涨周；上周涨近3%的道指累跌0.16%，在上周反弹后回落；上周涨近5%的罗素2000累跌2.94%，跌幅居首。十年期美国国债收益率本月则已经走高了40个基点。此外，美联储高官们的鹰派言论导致美元飙升，美元指数本周飙升2%，这是自2020年4月以来的最大单周涨幅。加密货币的表现似乎也受到了美联储鹰派立场的波及，周五出现暴跌。市场仍预期明年美联储将降息尽管市场相信美联储今年内将“说到做到”，贯彻鹰派立场，但市场对明年美联储降息的预期却越来越高。贝莱德投资研究所高级投资策略师Ann-Katrin 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