I warned about Bubble Stocks many times during the Denial Phase of the Bust.2022 was all about valuations coming back to earth.The magnitude of the decline in many growth stocks gives the illusion they are cheap, but not so fast.If you ignore the Covid bubble valuations, many growth stocks are not cheap.Many are actually at ATH valuations, above PEAK pre-Covid multiples.The structure of the Covid Bubble and Bust has closely resembled many historical bubbles, including the early 90s Japanese Nikkei Bubble.https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1609231495582851072?cxt=HHwWgICx-ZzhkdUsAAAA
DavidMarlin
NYC Equity Trader | SF Quant HF Adviser | CEO of Marlin Capital | Not Investment Advice.
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We have just witnessed the largest retail investor buying on record. I don’t have specific data on retail buying and future performance, but the previous retail buying high for this chart was early 2022 which was a major top. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image
Lots of talk about a bubble in AI/Mag 7...
Lots of talk about a bubble in AI/Mag 7... At this point, valuations at the top are no where near as frothy as they were at the height of the Dot Com Bubble. The 5 largest stocks traded at 43x Fwd PE in March ‘00, a 59% premium to the Mag 7’s current multiple of 27x. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ ImageTraders are piling into C
Bitcoin has been moving in sync with the global M2 money supply (on a 10 week lag).The current negative divergence is pointing to $80k for Bitcoin. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ Image
With Bitcoin breaking out to ATHs, we just witnessed the largest 4-week inflow to Crypto funds EVER. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$ $iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT)$ $BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.(BMNR)$ $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ $SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$ BTC ETH ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here：Trade on a Cash Boost Account
We just witnessed the largest 4 week outflow from Crypto funds on record. All throughout its history, Bitcoin declines by 70%+ during Bear cycles. When the narrative is “Bitcoin is dead and will never recover”, it’s the time to buy. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$ Image
Hedge Funds de-risked aggressively in Tech during last week’s sell off. The de-grossing over the past 2 weeks was the largest since July and ranks in the top 4 “risk off” events in the past 5 years. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Image
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ was the undisputed king of this entire Bull Market. Now headed for its first Death Cross since the 2022 Bear Market lows.Image
The $.SPX(.SPX)$ has only sustained a P/E multiple higher than the current mark (22.5x) twice in history:1.) The Dot Com Bubble2.) The Covid-QE Bubble $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image
If you ignore the Covid bubble valuations, many growth stocks are not cheap
If you ignore the Covid bubble valuations, many growth stocks are not cheap
Pensions are modeled to sell -$19B of US equities for month-end. That ranks in the 89th percentile since 2000. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here：💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉
Software, Semis, Energy, and Utilities are seen as the 4 biggest beneficiaries of AI when it comes to Operating Margin expansion. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF(IGV)$ $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$
Written 1 month ago at Marlin Capital, following the 90-day tariff pause 👇👇The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ is down over 30% since 🎯Total Positioning has gone from -2.5z to -0.8z 🎯ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here：Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?
CTAs are short -$34B of US equities and long $52B of European equities. This is the largest spread we have EVER seen. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF(FEZ)$ ImageI just said that on Tuesday：CTAs essentially entered this week max short, which looks to be turning into a massive tailwind now. GS estimates the largest 1M CTA buying demand since Nov 2023. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finished +5.7% in Nov ‘23.Image
AAPL buyback program is 169% larger than the average S&P 493 company
1 of the craziest stats in the market right now 👇 $Apple(AAPL)$ announced a $110B stock buyback program in Q1. If you strip out the Mag 7 from the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , the average market cap for the S&P 493 is just $65B. AAPL buyback program is 169% larger than the average S&P 493 company.ImageWhen the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ trades higher over the first 100 days of a Presidential election year, the rest of the year is up 93% of the time for an average return of 10.1% ($5800).Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1795439679652917329
AAPL buyback program is 169% larger than the average S&P 493 company
Bull Market Milestone: Two Years In, Aiming for Five?
We are now 2 years into the current Bull Market that began in October 2022. The average duration of the last 11 Bull Markets has been ~5 years, with 8/11 (73%) making it to the end of the year 3. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL
Bull Market Milestone: Two Years In, Aiming for Five?
In every recession since 1970, we have also had a corresponding earnings recession.The median recessionary EPS decline is -15%. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Tra
We are currently 29 trading days into this $S&P 500(.SPX)$ correction.The median non-recessionary SPX correction lasts 60 days.The median recessionary SPX correction lasts 282 days, almost 5x as long.Image Open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Other helpful links:💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉How to open a CBA.
We have seen unprecedented de-risking from Hedge Funds during this $S&P 500(.SPX)$ pullback.Over the last 2 weeks, Hedge Funds have sold global equities at the fastest pace ever recorded. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Image
Retail investors have been the strongest hand in the market all year. After the Moody’s downgrade, last Monday saw the largest retail buying day of U.S. stocks EVER. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here：Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free tra
The FAAMG Bubble has plenty more room to deflate after a decade + of outperformance
The FAAMG Bubble has plenty more room to deflate after a decade + of outperformance.What Are FAAMG Stocks?FAAMG is an abbreviation coined by Goldman Sachs for five top-performing tech stocks in the market, namely, Meta$Meta Platforms(Facebook), Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$. FAAMG may also go by the acronym,GAFAM.FAAMG originated from the original acronym FANG, which was coined by CNBC’sJim Cramer. FANG did not include Apple and Microsoft but did include
The FAAMG Bubble has plenty more room to deflate after a decade + of outperformance
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