星期二789 personal page - To The Moon

星期二789

星期二789

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2023-06-22

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2023-06-27

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2023-06-26

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2023-06-25

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2023-06-24

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2023-06-23

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2023-06-21

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2023-06-20

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2023-06-19

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2023-06-17

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[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947515165","repostId":"9947284641","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9947284641,"gmtCreate":1683196693283,"gmtModify":1683271945603,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc558bf32e48ad6ed6d057026ef55af7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667618821228","idStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"🎁Tigers' Comments on Buffett's Top Buys & Sells: What's Your Thought?","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1168123923\" target=\"_blank\">Welcome to review：</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1168123923\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett's 10 Key Events of the Past Year</a>Welcome to reserve the live about<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764309226627118&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\"> #2023 BRK Shareholder Meeting interpretation</a> (<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764309226627118&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese</a>) and(<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764903866291207&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\">English</a>) by <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4111216680846592\">@TBlive</a>In","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1168123923\" target=\"_blank\">Welcome to review：</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1168123923\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett's 10 Key Events of the Past Year</a>Welcome to reserve the live about<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764309226627118&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\"> #2023 BRK Shareholder Meeting interpretation</a> (<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764309226627118&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese</a>) and(<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;1764903866291207&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:1}\" target=\"_blank\">English</a>) by <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4111216680846592\">@TBlive</a>In","text":"Welcome to review：Buffett's 10 Key Events of the Past YearWelcome to reserve the live about #2023 BRK Shareholder Meeting interpretation (Chinese) and(English) by @TBliveIn","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a99b24e7cd8bf74a9cb7d4dd5a891ea5","width":"535","height":"628"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f5d42bd2b4932868df491cc6ab0a1af6","width":"768","height":"806"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ba2b791d3cc615041fb018a0a97c798"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947284641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943288852,"gmtCreate":1679487380476,"gmtModify":1679487386118,"author":{"id":"4122467264209522","authorId":"4122467264209522","name":"星期二789","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ff89484663fb597acece2256e8c8644","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122467264209522","idStr":"4122467264209522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943288852","repostId":"1185345375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185345375","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679477639,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185345375?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-22 17:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tonight's FOMC preview: rate hike's first anniversary, will Powell press the pause button?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185345375","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"目前市场预期仍倾向加息25个基点。芝商所美联储观察工具 CME FedWatch Tool 显示，截至目前，对加息25个基点的预测概率为84.9%，对不加息的预测概率为15.1%。FOMC可能会辩称，银行系统仍然强大并有弹性。消息公布后，股市可能会立即下跌，尤其是高科技股票。Ikeda认为，市场可能会将降息视为美联储恐慌情绪的反映，以及金融体系存在严重问题的证据。德意志银行认为，本周的FOMC声明中最重要的变化将是前瞻指引措辞的调整。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Plans will never keep up with changes, and this may be the most uncertain Federal Reserve decision since 2008.</b>At 14:00 Eastern Time on Wednesday, March 22 (02:00 am Beijing time on Thursday), the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and summary of economic expectations, and then Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.</p><p>Panic and unease have been hanging over U.S. markets for weeks. Just two weeks ago, the market was pricing in a 50 basis point rate hike as inflation and employment data remained strong. But the outlook for rate hike has become more complicated after confidence in the U.S. banking system suddenly collapsed after the successive failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7a36373ba01aaf41607a33a51cd837\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Analysts are now divided on the Fed's next move, arguing that it will be a difficult balancing act for the Fed to show its determination to restore price stability and at the same time show that it must respond to the actual situation if necessary. Some believe that the Fed should pause tightening policy in order to revive the banking industry; Others say the Fed has a responsibility to manage inflation and employment, and a 25-basis-point or even 50-basis-point rate hike is still looming.</p><p>Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, believes that,<b>This is the most uncertain Fed meeting since 2008.</b>On September 15th, 2008, the day before the FOMC meeting, panic about the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers flooded the market, and people's expectations about the path of the Federal Reserve's rate hike fluctuated unusually, but this uncertainty only lasted for one day.</p><p>Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", previously wrote that Powell and his colleagues faced one of their most difficult decisions in years this week. This meeting is also known as Powell's \"Volcker moment\", and the test for him is unique and severe, unlike anyone else.</p><p>1. rate hike? No, rate hike?</p><p>At present, market expectations are still inclined to rate hike by 25 basis points. The CME FedWatch Tool in CME group shows that as of now, the forecast probability of 25 basis points for rate hike is 84.9%, and the forecast probability of no rate hike is 15.1%.</p><p><b>This is the first time that the futures market has priced in the possibility of suspending rate hike since the Federal Reserve started this round of rate hike cycle on March 16, 2022, and some institutions have even called out expectations of interest rate cuts.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9efde7e398ac82aae8d56679294038ce\" tg-width=\"432\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Rate hike 25 basis points</b></li></ul>UBS, HSBC, Bank of America and many other institutions all expect the Federal Reserve to rate hike by 25 basis points at this meeting, raising the target range of Federal Funds rate to 4.75%-5%. Although the banking crisis has roiled markets, analysts believe that,<b>The FOMC will not risk suggesting that the banking system cannot afford the move by suspending rate hike, nor will it risk acknowledging that a quick, early rate hike is more risky than previously assumed. The FOMC may argue that the banking system remains strong and resilient.</b></p><p>While financial pressures remain, they are relatively mild and manageable, a positive sign, according to Bank of America's study of the total amount of credit issued on the Fed's balance sheet this week. Oren Klachkin, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, also believes that the recent banking crisis will not pose systemic risks to the broader financial system and economy. While inflation is still heating up, the Fed has a better way to ease the pressure on the banking sector.</p><p><b>If things get worse, the Fed still has options to respond.</b>Bank of America believes that, first of all, the Fed has powerful tools to deal with challenges originating from the banking industry; Second, while playing the role of lender of last resort, the Fed can also fine-tune its monetary policy stance in an effort to restore price stability. Conflicts can arise between the two goals, but the Fed has different policy tools. If worries about financial stability are too great, there is nothing wrong with taking precautionary rate cuts and halting shrinking balance sheet in the short term if necessary. If successful, the Fed may then continue to tighten policy to fulfill its dual functions.</p><p>Regarding the market reaction to this action, Nomura strategist Yunosuke Ikeda believes that the market will see it as the least disruptive option. The Federal Reserve signaled that it intends to solve the problems of financial system instability and inflation at the same time, which pleased the market. Stocks could drop immediately after the announcement, especially high-tech stocks. Then the stock market will gradually rise, interest rates will rise, the US dollar will appreciate and the yen will depreciate. By then, the market's attention may return to the economy and inflation.</p><p><ul><li><b>Suspended rate hike</b></li></ul>The main reason given by the side of suspending rate hike is that the banking system is still under pressure, and rate hike may further aggravate people's concerns about the stability of the banking industry.</p><p>Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note on Monday: \"We expect the FOMC to suspend rate hike at this week's meeting due to stress on the banking system. Although policymakers have taken aggressive steps to shore up the financial system, the market seems not entirely convinced that these efforts to support small and medium-sized banks are sufficient.\"</p><p>On March 19, local time, the Federal Reserve issued a joint statement with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank, announcing that it would strengthen liquidity supply through the permanent US dollar liquidity swap line arrangement and provide more liquidity support for the global market.</p><p>Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC and former Federal Reserve economist, said,<b>The Fed is coordinating globally with other central banks to rescue institutions and maintain liquidity, suggesting a pause in rate hike may be a better option.</b>She added that the Fed could signal that its \"current intention is to focus on stabilizing liquidity in the banking system\".</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, asked rhetorically:</p><p>Now rate hike expectations may have to be reversed quickly to cope with a deeper and more uncontrollable recession and deflation. Why rate hike when the Fed may be forced to cut interest rates so much early? Ikeda believes that within the range of expectations, the market may regard standing still as a dovish stance, and the initial reaction may be that high-tech stocks will drive the stock market higher. However, market instability still exists, and stocks may turn downward, especially cyclical stocks. In this case, interest rates will fall, the dollar will weaken and the yen will strengthen.</p><p><ul><li><b>Interest rate cuts</b></li></ul>Nomura Securities, which has always been the most aggressive, expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at this meeting, and is the first institution on Wall Street to call out an interest rate cut. Nomura strategist Aichi Amemiya believes that one concern in the market is that although the FDIC has promised to protect the interests of depositors, deposit flight may not slow down anytime soon. The sensitivity of individual depositors to deposit rates has increased, and there may be a large outflow of funds from commercial banks, which will force banks to liquidate their loan portfolios unless banks raise deposit rates significantly.</p><p>Unrealized capital losses in banks' held-to-maturity portfolios may not be an imminent issue as the Federal Reserve launches BTFP, a new bank term funding program, Nomura said. However,<b>If the Fed keeps the policy rate \"higher for longer,\" banks will be reluctant to liquidate holdings of securities because selling them will liquidate those losses in a short period of time.</b></p><p>Ikeda believes that the market may see the rate cut as a reflection of the panic at the Federal Reserve and evidence of serious problems in the financial system. While the stock market may rise immediately after the announcement, it is only a conditioned reflex, and as the market digests the impact of a full-blown recession and future rate cuts, the stock market, interest rates and the US dollar will accelerate their decline.</p><p>Overall, in these three cases, Ikeda believes that<b>The reaction of markets depends less on the specific actions taken by the Fed and more on the direction they suggest the Fed will take in the future</b>。</p><p>2. Important changes: adjustments to the wording of forward-looking guidance and upward revisions to interest rate peaks</p><p>Another important element of this week's FOMC meeting is that policymakers will release the latest economic forecasts and dot plots for the first time since December last year, providing key guidance on the Fed's monetary policy path for the rest of the year. At present, institutions generally expect Fed officials to revise their forward guidance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank believes that<b>The most important change in this week's FOMC statement will be the adjustment of the wording of the forward guidance.</b>The committee will replace the original wording of \"continued rate hike\" with wording that still implies a tightening bias but relies heavily on data. In this way, policymakers will remain committed to fighting inflation, but will not pre-commit to any policy action given rising uncertainty. During the press conference, Chairman Powell can elaborate further on the underlying outlook of the FOMC and how to see the risks surrounding this view.</p><p>In addition to continuing to emphasize data dependency, analysts including Bank of America and UBS also believe that,<b>Powell will mention financial industry developments in the past few days at the press conference. He will emphasize that the banking system is well-capitalized, safe and secure, and defend the Fed's actions to support the banking system, saying that the Fed has powerful tools to deal with financial stability risks.</b></p><p>On March 14, local time, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman publicly stated: \"The U.S. banking system is still resilient and on a solid foundation, and the entire system has strong capital and liquidity. The Federal Reserve will continue to pay close attention to the development of financial markets and the entire financial system.\" Analysts believe that this is the best example. The forecast in the \"dot plot\" is not a promise that the FOMC will change the path of interest rates if conditions permit.</p><p><b>In addition, analysts also expect the FOMC to raise its forecast for the peak of the Federal Funds rate, with the base scenario being 25 basis points. The FOMC needs to assume a higher interest rate path to keep the long-term inflation forecast unchanged.</b></p><p>Bank of America expects new interest rates to peak at 5.4% in 2023, 4.6% in 2024, and 3.4% in 2025, which would be 25bp, 50bp, and 25bp higher than December forecasts, respectively. The FOMC will retain the wording about \"continuously raising\" Federal Funds rate's target range in its statement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7260c41b0b75c756cac03e1099b479b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs and UBS take a similar view: The median peak rate expectation in 2023 remains at 5.4%, and three rate cuts in 2024 will bring the median expectation down to 4.6%, compared with 3.1% in 2025. The median expectation of long-term interest rates may remain at 2.5%, but there will be an upward trend in the distribution. The median forecast for core PCE inflation in 2023 is likely to move higher, near 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17ff926cae79c8a75ae786ccb83b384\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura believes that FOMC members will not raise their forecasts for peak interest rates because the market's inflation expectations are lower than the low point before the February employment report. This could be seen as a hawkish signal and will weigh on stock prices.</p><p>The policy path predicted by most economists is significantly more aggressive than the current expectations reflected in the federal funds futures market, highlighting the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate decision and the trajectory in the coming months.</p><p><b>3. Credit standards continue to tighten, when will the risk of recession come?</b></p><p>Not only is the debate about the Fed's rate hike path in full swing after the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, another focal point is how severe the credit crunch is in the U.S. as regional banks struggle. According to media surveys, most people expect the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession in 2023. Most of them believe that the recession will occur in the third or fourth quarter, but it will still be a mild recession.</p><p>UBS believes that more than 40% of the real consumption growth in 2022 can be attributed to an increase in revolving credit balances, mainly credit card balances. Overall credit grew 15%, but the pace was unsustainable.<b>Following the crisis of the past two weeks, the intensification of the credit crunch may pose downside risks to economic growth and the future path of policy rates.</b></p><p>UBS also said,<b>Household balance sheets are less healthy than they were a year ago, and many households are in worse shape than they were in 2019. This, along with consumption's high dependence on credit, makes the household sector very sensitive to the tightening credit environment.</b>Furthermore, lenders' willingness to provide credit was already declining before the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. Recent events further confirm that a hard landing is on the horizon, and actual consumption should weaken in the coming months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b466b92da906acba84f58b4850564d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While supporting rate hike by 25 basis points, Bank of America believes there is a greater risk that the Fed may end its tightening cycle early, and a sharp tightening of bank lending standards may also lead to a tougher landing than currently forecasted. The banking crisis will only make the situation worse, and its \"skin pain\" to the economy will be profound and lasting.</p><p>The negative lagging impact of the cumulative rate hike in the past is slowly emerging. Nomura strategist Aichi Amemiya believes that the tightening of bank lending will cause the U.S. economy to start falling into recession in the second half of 2023, and this process is even accelerating. At this point, the Fed may become more forward-looking, and it may place more weight on the inflation outlook rather than waiting for a substantial decline in real inflation. In this regard,<b>Financial stability risks are rapidly becoming a dominant factor in monetary policy. But as long as the Fed cuts interest rates sharply enough, a recession can still be avoided.</b></p><p>Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, told the media that the possibility of a soft landing is very small, and the economic recession will start in the third quarter of this year and last for 6-9 months. Historically, recessions have helped reduce inflationary pressures. \"I don't think the Fed will come out and publicly say they support a mild recession, but it does help them. It will be a way to get inflation back to target levels faster. A way\".</p><p>4. Is QT stopping imminent?</p><p>Some analysts will also be looking to see if the FOMC will make any statements on its QT plans to quantitatively tighten, especially given the significant balance sheet expansion last week. Credit Agricole believes that if the recently announced BTFP plan is adopted, it will mean an increase in balance sheet size that can at least partially offset QT.</p><p>UBS expects that the introduction of measures to support the liquidity supply of the banking system will promote stricter scrutiny of reserve supply and bank financing markets.<b>QT will end the year with significant changes.</b>If the Fed has to continue to provide liquidity support for the banking system, reserves are already less than 11.5% of GDP before the Fed's balance sheet expansion this week, and this situation seems difficult to last for several quarters.</p><p>The agency believes that another growing risk is that recent developments in financial conditions may cause the Federal Reserve to put more scrutiny into the pace of reserve drains and may prompt a slowdown in the pace of QT.</p><p>Amemiya takes the same view. While the choice of deposit versus non-deposit investment vehicles such as money market funds is important to banks, ending the QT should help maintain a more adequate amount of reserves than would otherwise be possible.<b>The fact that many other banks are at risk of serious bank runs suggests the growing risk of excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and supports the Fed to cut interest rates in the near term</b>。 Cumulative rate hike disproportionately reduces the availability of credit through bank loans compared to financial market conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c46b90e68fa0da8a66b5451a5c296d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tonight's FOMC preview: rate hike's first anniversary, will Powell press the pause button?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTonight's FOMC preview: rate hike's first anniversary, will Powell press the pause button?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-22 17:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Plans will never keep up with changes, and this may be the most uncertain Federal Reserve decision since 2008.</b>At 14:00 Eastern Time on Wednesday, March 22 (02:00 am Beijing time on Thursday), the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and summary of economic expectations, and then Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.</p><p>Panic and unease have been hanging over U.S. markets for weeks. Just two weeks ago, the market was pricing in a 50 basis point rate hike as inflation and employment data remained strong. But the outlook for rate hike has become more complicated after confidence in the U.S. banking system suddenly collapsed after the successive failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7a36373ba01aaf41607a33a51cd837\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Analysts are now divided on the Fed's next move, arguing that it will be a difficult balancing act for the Fed to show its determination to restore price stability and at the same time show that it must respond to the actual situation if necessary. Some believe that the Fed should pause tightening policy in order to revive the banking industry; Others say the Fed has a responsibility to manage inflation and employment, and a 25-basis-point or even 50-basis-point rate hike is still looming.</p><p>Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, believes that,<b>This is the most uncertain Fed meeting since 2008.</b>On September 15th, 2008, the day before the FOMC meeting, panic about the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers flooded the market, and people's expectations about the path of the Federal Reserve's rate hike fluctuated unusually, but this uncertainty only lasted for one day.</p><p>Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", previously wrote that Powell and his colleagues faced one of their most difficult decisions in years this week. This meeting is also known as Powell's \"Volcker moment\", and the test for him is unique and severe, unlike anyone else.</p><p>1. rate hike? No, rate hike?</p><p>At present, market expectations are still inclined to rate hike by 25 basis points. The CME FedWatch Tool in CME group shows that as of now, the forecast probability of 25 basis points for rate hike is 84.9%, and the forecast probability of no rate hike is 15.1%.</p><p><b>This is the first time that the futures market has priced in the possibility of suspending rate hike since the Federal Reserve started this round of rate hike cycle on March 16, 2022, and some institutions have even called out expectations of interest rate cuts.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9efde7e398ac82aae8d56679294038ce\" tg-width=\"432\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><ul><li><b>Rate hike 25 basis points</b></li></ul>UBS, HSBC, Bank of America and many other institutions all expect the Federal Reserve to rate hike by 25 basis points at this meeting, raising the target range of Federal Funds rate to 4.75%-5%. Although the banking crisis has roiled markets, analysts believe that,<b>The FOMC will not risk suggesting that the banking system cannot afford the move by suspending rate hike, nor will it risk acknowledging that a quick, early rate hike is more risky than previously assumed. The FOMC may argue that the banking system remains strong and resilient.</b></p><p>While financial pressures remain, they are relatively mild and manageable, a positive sign, according to Bank of America's study of the total amount of credit issued on the Fed's balance sheet this week. Oren Klachkin, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, also believes that the recent banking crisis will not pose systemic risks to the broader financial system and economy. While inflation is still heating up, the Fed has a better way to ease the pressure on the banking sector.</p><p><b>If things get worse, the Fed still has options to respond.</b>Bank of America believes that, first of all, the Fed has powerful tools to deal with challenges originating from the banking industry; Second, while playing the role of lender of last resort, the Fed can also fine-tune its monetary policy stance in an effort to restore price stability. Conflicts can arise between the two goals, but the Fed has different policy tools. If worries about financial stability are too great, there is nothing wrong with taking precautionary rate cuts and halting shrinking balance sheet in the short term if necessary. If successful, the Fed may then continue to tighten policy to fulfill its dual functions.</p><p>Regarding the market reaction to this action, Nomura strategist Yunosuke Ikeda believes that the market will see it as the least disruptive option. The Federal Reserve signaled that it intends to solve the problems of financial system instability and inflation at the same time, which pleased the market. Stocks could drop immediately after the announcement, especially high-tech stocks. Then the stock market will gradually rise, interest rates will rise, the US dollar will appreciate and the yen will depreciate. By then, the market's attention may return to the economy and inflation.</p><p><ul><li><b>Suspended rate hike</b></li></ul>The main reason given by the side of suspending rate hike is that the banking system is still under pressure, and rate hike may further aggravate people's concerns about the stability of the banking industry.</p><p>Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note on Monday: \"We expect the FOMC to suspend rate hike at this week's meeting due to stress on the banking system. Although policymakers have taken aggressive steps to shore up the financial system, the market seems not entirely convinced that these efforts to support small and medium-sized banks are sufficient.\"</p><p>On March 19, local time, the Federal Reserve issued a joint statement with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank, announcing that it would strengthen liquidity supply through the permanent US dollar liquidity swap line arrangement and provide more liquidity support for the global market.</p><p>Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC and former Federal Reserve economist, said,<b>The Fed is coordinating globally with other central banks to rescue institutions and maintain liquidity, suggesting a pause in rate hike may be a better option.</b>She added that the Fed could signal that its \"current intention is to focus on stabilizing liquidity in the banking system\".</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, asked rhetorically:</p><p>Now rate hike expectations may have to be reversed quickly to cope with a deeper and more uncontrollable recession and deflation. Why rate hike when the Fed may be forced to cut interest rates so much early? Ikeda believes that within the range of expectations, the market may regard standing still as a dovish stance, and the initial reaction may be that high-tech stocks will drive the stock market higher. However, market instability still exists, and stocks may turn downward, especially cyclical stocks. In this case, interest rates will fall, the dollar will weaken and the yen will strengthen.</p><p><ul><li><b>Interest rate cuts</b></li></ul>Nomura Securities, which has always been the most aggressive, expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at this meeting, and is the first institution on Wall Street to call out an interest rate cut. Nomura strategist Aichi Amemiya believes that one concern in the market is that although the FDIC has promised to protect the interests of depositors, deposit flight may not slow down anytime soon. The sensitivity of individual depositors to deposit rates has increased, and there may be a large outflow of funds from commercial banks, which will force banks to liquidate their loan portfolios unless banks raise deposit rates significantly.</p><p>Unrealized capital losses in banks' held-to-maturity portfolios may not be an imminent issue as the Federal Reserve launches BTFP, a new bank term funding program, Nomura said. However,<b>If the Fed keeps the policy rate \"higher for longer,\" banks will be reluctant to liquidate holdings of securities because selling them will liquidate those losses in a short period of time.</b></p><p>Ikeda believes that the market may see the rate cut as a reflection of the panic at the Federal Reserve and evidence of serious problems in the financial system. While the stock market may rise immediately after the announcement, it is only a conditioned reflex, and as the market digests the impact of a full-blown recession and future rate cuts, the stock market, interest rates and the US dollar will accelerate their decline.</p><p>Overall, in these three cases, Ikeda believes that<b>The reaction of markets depends less on the specific actions taken by the Fed and more on the direction they suggest the Fed will take in the future</b>。</p><p>2. Important changes: adjustments to the wording of forward-looking guidance and upward revisions to interest rate peaks</p><p>Another important element of this week's FOMC meeting is that policymakers will release the latest economic forecasts and dot plots for the first time since December last year, providing key guidance on the Fed's monetary policy path for the rest of the year. At present, institutions generally expect Fed officials to revise their forward guidance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank believes that<b>The most important change in this week's FOMC statement will be the adjustment of the wording of the forward guidance.</b>The committee will replace the original wording of \"continued rate hike\" with wording that still implies a tightening bias but relies heavily on data. In this way, policymakers will remain committed to fighting inflation, but will not pre-commit to any policy action given rising uncertainty. During the press conference, Chairman Powell can elaborate further on the underlying outlook of the FOMC and how to see the risks surrounding this view.</p><p>In addition to continuing to emphasize data dependency, analysts including Bank of America and UBS also believe that,<b>Powell will mention financial industry developments in the past few days at the press conference. He will emphasize that the banking system is well-capitalized, safe and secure, and defend the Fed's actions to support the banking system, saying that the Fed has powerful tools to deal with financial stability risks.</b></p><p>On March 14, local time, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman publicly stated: \"The U.S. banking system is still resilient and on a solid foundation, and the entire system has strong capital and liquidity. The Federal Reserve will continue to pay close attention to the development of financial markets and the entire financial system.\" Analysts believe that this is the best example. The forecast in the \"dot plot\" is not a promise that the FOMC will change the path of interest rates if conditions permit.</p><p><b>In addition, analysts also expect the FOMC to raise its forecast for the peak of the Federal Funds rate, with the base scenario being 25 basis points. The FOMC needs to assume a higher interest rate path to keep the long-term inflation forecast unchanged.</b></p><p>Bank of America expects new interest rates to peak at 5.4% in 2023, 4.6% in 2024, and 3.4% in 2025, which would be 25bp, 50bp, and 25bp higher than December forecasts, respectively. The FOMC will retain the wording about \"continuously raising\" Federal Funds rate's target range in its statement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7260c41b0b75c756cac03e1099b479b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Goldman Sachs and UBS take a similar view: The median peak rate expectation in 2023 remains at 5.4%, and three rate cuts in 2024 will bring the median expectation down to 4.6%, compared with 3.1% in 2025. The median expectation of long-term interest rates may remain at 2.5%, but there will be an upward trend in the distribution. The median forecast for core PCE inflation in 2023 is likely to move higher, near 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17ff926cae79c8a75ae786ccb83b384\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura believes that FOMC members will not raise their forecasts for peak interest rates because the market's inflation expectations are lower than the low point before the February employment report. This could be seen as a hawkish signal and will weigh on stock prices.</p><p>The policy path predicted by most economists is significantly more aggressive than the current expectations reflected in the federal funds futures market, highlighting the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate decision and the trajectory in the coming months.</p><p><b>3. Credit standards continue to tighten, when will the risk of recession come?</b></p><p>Not only is the debate about the Fed's rate hike path in full swing after the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, another focal point is how severe the credit crunch is in the U.S. as regional banks struggle. According to media surveys, most people expect the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession in 2023. Most of them believe that the recession will occur in the third or fourth quarter, but it will still be a mild recession.</p><p>UBS believes that more than 40% of the real consumption growth in 2022 can be attributed to an increase in revolving credit balances, mainly credit card balances. Overall credit grew 15%, but the pace was unsustainable.<b>Following the crisis of the past two weeks, the intensification of the credit crunch may pose downside risks to economic growth and the future path of policy rates.</b></p><p>UBS also said,<b>Household balance sheets are less healthy than they were a year ago, and many households are in worse shape than they were in 2019. This, along with consumption's high dependence on credit, makes the household sector very sensitive to the tightening credit environment.</b>Furthermore, lenders' willingness to provide credit was already declining before the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. Recent events further confirm that a hard landing is on the horizon, and actual consumption should weaken in the coming months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b466b92da906acba84f58b4850564d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While supporting rate hike by 25 basis points, Bank of America believes there is a greater risk that the Fed may end its tightening cycle early, and a sharp tightening of bank lending standards may also lead to a tougher landing than currently forecasted. The banking crisis will only make the situation worse, and its \"skin pain\" to the economy will be profound and lasting.</p><p>The negative lagging impact of the cumulative rate hike in the past is slowly emerging. Nomura strategist Aichi Amemiya believes that the tightening of bank lending will cause the U.S. economy to start falling into recession in the second half of 2023, and this process is even accelerating. At this point, the Fed may become more forward-looking, and it may place more weight on the inflation outlook rather than waiting for a substantial decline in real inflation. In this regard,<b>Financial stability risks are rapidly becoming a dominant factor in monetary policy. But as long as the Fed cuts interest rates sharply enough, a recession can still be avoided.</b></p><p>Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, told the media that the possibility of a soft landing is very small, and the economic recession will start in the third quarter of this year and last for 6-9 months. Historically, recessions have helped reduce inflationary pressures. \"I don't think the Fed will come out and publicly say they support a mild recession, but it does help them. It will be a way to get inflation back to target levels faster. A way\".</p><p>4. Is QT stopping imminent?</p><p>Some analysts will also be looking to see if the FOMC will make any statements on its QT plans to quantitatively tighten, especially given the significant balance sheet expansion last week. Credit Agricole believes that if the recently announced BTFP plan is adopted, it will mean an increase in balance sheet size that can at least partially offset QT.</p><p>UBS expects that the introduction of measures to support the liquidity supply of the banking system will promote stricter scrutiny of reserve supply and bank financing markets.<b>QT will end the year with significant changes.</b>If the Fed has to continue to provide liquidity support for the banking system, reserves are already less than 11.5% of GDP before the Fed's balance sheet expansion this week, and this situation seems difficult to last for several quarters.</p><p>The agency believes that another growing risk is that recent developments in financial conditions may cause the Federal Reserve to put more scrutiny into the pace of reserve drains and may prompt a slowdown in the pace of QT.</p><p>Amemiya takes the same view. While the choice of deposit versus non-deposit investment vehicles such as money market funds is important to banks, ending the QT should help maintain a more adequate amount of reserves than would otherwise be possible.<b>The fact that many other banks are at risk of serious bank runs suggests the growing risk of excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve and supports the Fed to cut interest rates in the near term</b>。 Cumulative rate hike disproportionately reduces the availability of credit through bank loans compared to financial market conditions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c46b90e68fa0da8a66b5451a5c296d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684537\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684537","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185345375","content_text":"计划永远赶不上变化，这或是自2008年以来最具不确定性的一次美联储决议。美东时间3月22日周三14:00（北京时间周四凌晨02:00），美联储将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要，随后美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会。恐慌和不安的情绪已经笼罩着美国市场数周。就在两周前，由于通胀和就业数据仍旧强劲，市场还在为50个基点的加息幅度定价。但在硅谷银行和 Signature Bank 接连倒闭后，人们对美国银行体系的信心突然崩溃，加息前景变得更加复杂。分析人士如今对美联储的下一步行动意见不一，认为美联储既要表现出恢复价格稳定的决心，同时又要表明其在必要时须对实际情况做出反应，这将是一项艰难的平衡行动。有人认为美联储应该暂停紧缩政策，以便让银行业重振旗鼓；其他人则表示美联储有责任管理通胀和就业，25个基点甚至50个基点的加息仍迫在眉睫。Bianco Research 总裁 Jim Bianco 认为，这是自2008年以来最具不确定性的一次美联储会议。在2008年9月15日——FOMC会议的前一天，有关雷曼兄弟破产的恐慌情绪充斥着市场，人们对美联储加息路径预期的波动异常地大，但这种不确定性只持续了一天。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者 Nick Timiraos 此前撰文称，鲍威尔和他的同事本周面临他们多年来最艰难的决定之一。这次会议也被称为是鲍威尔的“沃尔克时刻”，对他的考验独特而严峻，不同于其他任何人。1.加息？不加息？目前市场预期仍倾向加息25个基点。芝商所美联储观察工具 CME FedWatch Tool 显示，截至目前，对加息25个基点的预测概率为84.9%，对不加息的预测概率为15.1%。这是自2022年3月16日美联储开启本轮加息周期以来，期货市场首次为暂停加息的可能性定价，甚至有机构喊出了降息预期。加息25个基点瑞银、汇丰、美银等多家机构都预计美联储将在此次会议上加息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间提高至4.75%-5%。尽管银行业危机令市场动荡不安，但分析师认为，FOMC不会通过暂停加息冒险暗示银行系统无法承受这一举措，也不会冒险承认快速、提前加息的风险比之前假设的更大。FOMC可能会辩称，银行系统仍然强大并有弹性。根据美国银行对本周美联储资产负债表中发放信贷总额的研究，尽管金融压力仍然存在，但相对温和并且可控，这是一个积极的信号。牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家 Oren Klachkin 也认为，近期银行业的危机不会对广泛的金融体系和经济构成系统性风险。在通胀仍在升温的情况下，美联储有更好的方法来缓解银行业的压力。如果情况变得更糟糕，美联储仍有选择应对。美银认为，首先，美联储拥有强大的工具来应对源自银行业的挑战；其次，美联储在发挥最后贷款人作用的同时，也可以对货币政策立场进行微调，以努力恢复价格稳定。这两个目标之间可能会出现冲突，但美联储有不同的政策工具。如果对金融稳定的担忧太大，在必要的情况下，在短期内采取预防性降息和停止缩表并没有什么不妥。如果成功，美联储随后可能继续收紧政策，以实现其双重职能。对于这一行动的市场反应，野村策略师 Yunosuke Ikeda 认为，市场会将其视为破坏性最小的选择。美联储释放出信号，打算同时解决金融系统不稳定和通胀问题，让市场感到欣慰。消息公布后，股市可能会立即下跌，尤其是高科技股票。随后股市将逐步上涨，利率回升，美元升值、日元贬值。届时，市场的注意力可能会重新回到经济和通胀上。暂停加息倒向暂停加息一方给出的主要理由是银行体系仍承受着压力，加息可能会进一步加剧人们对银行业稳定性的担忧。高盛经济学家周一在一份报告中写道：“我们预计，由于银行系统存在压力，FOMC将在本周的会议上暂停加息。尽管政策制定者已经采取了积极措施以支撑金融体系，但市场似乎并不完全相信，支持中小型银行的这些努力是足够的。”当地时间3月19日，美联储与加拿大央行、英国央行、日本央行、欧洲央行、瑞士央行发布联合声明，宣布通过常设美元流动性互换额度安排加强流动性供应，为全球市场提供更多流动性支持。MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC总裁、前美联储经济学家 Julia Coronado 对此表示，美联储正在与其他央行进行全球协调，以拯救机构并保持流动性，这表明暂停加息可能是更好的选择。她补充称，美联储可能会发出信号，表明其“目前的意图是集中在稳定银行体系的流动性上”。毕马威首席经济学家 Diane Swonk 反问道：现在的加息预期可能不得不迅速逆转，以应对更严重、更不可控的衰退和通货紧缩。美联储可能被迫提前这么多时间降息，为什么还要加息呢？Ikeda 认为，在预期范围内，市场可能将按兵不动视为一种鸽派立场，最初的反应可能是高科技股票带动股市上涨。不过，市场不稳定性仍存在，股市可能会转为下跌，尤其是周期性股票。在这种情况下，利率将下降，美元走弱、日元走强。降息一向最为激进的野村证券预计美联储将在此次会议上降息，是华尔街第一家喊出降息的机构。野村策略师 Aichi Amemiya 认为，市场的一个担忧是，尽管FDIC已经承诺保护储户的利益，但存款外逃可能不会很快放缓。个人储户对存款利率的敏感性有所增加，商业银行资金可能出现大量外流，这将迫使银行清算其贷款组合，除非银行大幅提高存款利率。野村称，由于美联储推出新的银行定期融资计划BTFP，银行持有至到期投资组合中未实现的资本损失可能不会成为迫在眉睫的问题。然而，如果美联储将政策利率“更长时间地维持在较高水平”，银行将不愿清算持有的证券，因为出售证券将在短时间内使这些损失变现。Ikeda 认为，市场可能会将降息视为美联储恐慌情绪的反映，以及金融体系存在严重问题的证据。虽然声明刚发布后股市可能立即上涨，但这只是一种条件反射，随着市场消化全面衰退和未来降息的影响，股市、利率和美元将加速下跌。总体而言，在这三种情形下，Ikeda 认为市场的反应几乎不取决于美联储具体采取了什么行动，而更多地取决于这些行动所暗示出的美联储今后将采取的方向。2.重要变化：前瞻指引措辞的调整和利率峰值的上修本周FOMC会议的另一个重要内容，是政策制定者将自去年12月以来首次发布最新的经济预测和点阵图，就美联储今年剩余时间的货币政策路径提供关键指引。目前机构普遍预计联储官员们将修改前瞻指引。德意志银行认为，本周的FOMC声明中最重要的变化将是前瞻指引措辞的调整。委员会将用仍暗示紧缩倾向、但在很大程度上依赖于数据的措辞取代“持续加息”的原措辞。通过这种方式，政策制定者仍将致力于抗击通胀，但鉴于不确定性上升，他们不会预先承诺任何政策行动。在新闻发布会上，主席鲍威尔可以进一步详细阐述FOMC的基本展望，以及如何看待围绕这一观点的风险。除了继续强调数据依赖性外，包括美银和瑞银在内的分析师还认为，鲍威尔将在新闻发布会上提到过去几天的金融业发展，他将强调银行系统的资本充足、安全可靠，并为美联储支持银行体系的行动进行辩护，称美联储拥有强大的工具来应对金融稳定风险。当地时间3月14日，美联储理事鲍曼公开表示：“美国的银行体系仍然具有弹性和坚实的基础，整个系统拥有强大的资本和流动性。美联储将继续密切关注金融市场和整个金融体系的发展。”分析师认为，这就是最好的例证。“点状图”中的预测不是一种承诺，如果条件允许，FOMC将改变利率路径。此外，分析师也预计FOMC将上调对联邦基金利率峰值的预测，基本情景是25个基点。FOMC需要假设更高的利率路径，以保持长期通胀预测不变。美银预计2023年的新利率峰值为5.4%，2024年为4.6%，2025年为3.4%，这将比12月的预测分别高出25bp、50bp和25bp。FOMC在声明中将保留关于“持续上调”联邦基金利率目标区间的措辞。高盛和瑞银也持类似看法：2023年的利率峰值中值预期维持在5.4%，2024年的三次降息将使中值预期降至4.6%，而2025年为3.1%。长期利率的中值预期可能会保持在2.5%，但在分布上会有一个上升的趋势。2023年核心PCE通胀的预测中值可能会走高，接近4%。而野村认为，由于市场的通胀预期低于2月就业报告前的低点，FOMC成员不会上调对利率峰值的预测。这可能被视为鹰派信号，将令股价承压。多数经济学家预测的政策路径明显比联邦基金期货市场反映的当前预期更为激进，突显出美联储此次利率决定的不确定性，且未来几个月的轨迹也是如此。3.信贷标准继续收紧，衰退风险何时来临？硅谷银行危机后，不仅关于美联储加息路径的争论进行得如火如荼，另一个焦点话题是，随着地区银行业陷入困境，美国的信贷紧缩程度有多严重。根据媒体的调查，多数人预计，美国国家经济研究局将在2023年宣布出现衰退，其中大部分人认为衰退将发生在第三或第四季度，不过仍是温和衰退。瑞银认为，2022年实际消费增长的40%以上可以归因于循环信贷余额的增加，其中主要是信用卡余额。整体信贷增长了15%，但这一速度是不可持续的。在过去两周的危机发生后，信贷紧缩的加剧可能对经济增长和政策利率的未来路径构成下行风险。瑞银还表示，家庭资产负债表的健康状况不如一年前，许多家庭的状况比2019年更糟。这点以及消费对信贷的高度依赖，使得家庭部门对信贷环境收紧非常敏感。此外，在硅谷银行危机之前，贷款机构提供信贷的意愿就已经在下降。近期的事件进一步印证硬着陆即将到来，未来几个月实际消费应该会走弱。虽然支持加息25个基点，但美银认为，美联储可能提前结束紧缩周期的风险更大，银行贷款标准的大幅收紧也可能导致比目前预测的更艰难的着陆。银行业危机只会让情况更加糟糕，其留给经济的“切肤之痛”将是深刻而持久的。过去累计加息的负面滞后影响正在慢慢显现。野村策略师 Aichi Amemiya 认为，银行贷款的收紧会使美国经济在2023年下半年开始陷入衰退，这一过程甚至还在加速。在这一点上，美联储可能会变得更具前瞻性，它可能会更加重视通胀前景，而不是等待实际通胀的实质性下降。在这方面，金融稳定风险正迅速成为货币政策的主导因素。但只要美联储降息幅度足够大，经济衰退仍可以避免。牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家 Ryan Sweet 向媒体表示，软着陆的可能性很小，经济衰退将从今年第三季度开始，并持续6-9个月。从历史上看，衰退这有助于减轻通胀压力，“我不认为美联储会站出来公开表示他们支持温和衰退，但这确实对他们有帮助。这将是让通胀更快回落至目标水平的一种方式”。4.停止QT在即？一些分析师还将关注FOMC是否会就其量化紧缩QT计划发表任何声明，特别是考虑到上周资产负债表的显著扩张。法国农业信贷银行认为，如果最近宣布的BTFP计划被采用，将意味着资产负债表规模的增加，至少可以部分抵消QT。瑞银预计，关于对银行系统流动性供应提供支持的措施出台，会推动对准备金供应和银行融资市场进行更严格的审查，QT将在今年结束时出现重大变化。如果美联储不得不为银行系统继续提供流动性支持，那么在本周美联储资产负债表扩张之前，准备金已经不足GDP的11.5%，这种状况似乎很难持续几个季度。该机构认为，另一个越来越大的风险是，最近的金融状况发展可能会使美联储对准备金流失的节奏进行更多的审查，并可能促使QT步伐放缓。Amemiya 也持同一看法。尽管存款与货币市场基金等非存款投资工具的选择对银行很重要，但结束QT应该有助于保持比其他情况下更充足的准备金数量。其他很多银行正面临严重的银行挤兑风险，这一事实表明，美联储过度紧缩的风险越来越大，也支持美联储在短期内降息。与金融市场状况相比，累计加息不成比例地减少了通过银行贷款提供的信贷。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943861079,"gmtCreate":1679357205592,"gmtModify":1679357209251,"author":{"id":"4122467264209522","authorId":"4122467264209522","name":"星期二789","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ff89484663fb597acece2256e8c8644","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122467264209522","idStr":"4122467264209522"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943861079","repostId":"2321657328","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2321657328","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1679355679,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2321657328?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-21 07:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Aiming for next year's big easing? Swap contracts bet on Fed interest rate cuts by more than 3% next year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2321657328","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"互换合约交易者对冲美联储大举行动的胃口简直难以置信。只有在美联储未来13个月内降息抵消去年7月以来所有加息幅度时，他们的交易才能实现收支平衡。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The appetite of swap contract traders to hedge against the Fed's aggressive move is simply unbelievable. Their trade can only break even if the Fed cuts interest rates in the next 13 months to offset all the rate hike since July last year. Don't just focus on this week's Fed rate hike. Traders in the swap contract market are already betting on a big interest rate cut in the next year. The media exclaimed that these traders' appetite to hedge against the Fed's aggressive action was simply unbelievable.</p><p>At present, the pricing of the one-year contract of the Overnight Index Swap (OIS), an interest rate swap contract based on the overnight interest rate, shows that investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by nearly 40 basis points by March next year, and that the premium of similar OIS swap options exercised later is currently priced at more than 300 basis points.</p><p>This means that the above-mentioned swap contract transactions can only break even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the next 13 months to offset all the rate hike since July last year.</p><p>Last Wednesday, reporter Nick Timiraos, who is regarded as the mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve and known as the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", wrote an article saying,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYP\">Signature Bank</a>The failures of two regional banks triggered broader financial turmoil, prompting more investors to expect that the Fed's rate hike cycle may be over.</p><p>However, the media pointed out on Monday that so far, the impact of the above two regional banks seems to have been contained, so if the Fed decides to ease its actions, any subsequent interest rate cuts may be gradual. In any case, the current swap option valuation appears to be overvalued.</p><p>Many sell-side analysts have overturned expectations for a 50 basis point Fed rate hike this week, but the possibility of a pause in rate hike is not high unless the market expects the Fed to think rate hike is enough to curb high inflation. Therefore, 25 basis points on rate hike is the only logical option for the Fed this week.</p><p>During the midday session of U.S. stocks this Monday, the \"Fed Watch Tool\" of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) showed that the current Federal Funds rate futures trading market in the United States predicts that the probability of the Fed's 25 basis points rate hike this week is close to 74%, and the probability of not rate hike dropped from the 38% expected a day ago to just about 26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04b32695a2794f0ba2d646393014ca8\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Aiming for next year's big easing? Swap contracts bet on Fed interest rate cuts by more than 3% next year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAiming for next year's big easing? Swap contracts bet on Fed interest rate cuts by more than 3% next year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-21 07:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The appetite of swap contract traders to hedge against the Fed's aggressive move is simply unbelievable. Their trade can only break even if the Fed cuts interest rates in the next 13 months to offset all the rate hike since July last year. Don't just focus on this week's Fed rate hike. Traders in the swap contract market are already betting on a big interest rate cut in the next year. The media exclaimed that these traders' appetite to hedge against the Fed's aggressive action was simply unbelievable.</p><p>At present, the pricing of the one-year contract of the Overnight Index Swap (OIS), an interest rate swap contract based on the overnight interest rate, shows that investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by nearly 40 basis points by March next year, and that the premium of similar OIS swap options exercised later is currently priced at more than 300 basis points.</p><p>This means that the above-mentioned swap contract transactions can only break even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the next 13 months to offset all the rate hike since July last year.</p><p>Last Wednesday, reporter Nick Timiraos, who is regarded as the mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve and known as the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", wrote an article saying,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYP\">Signature Bank</a>The failures of two regional banks triggered broader financial turmoil, prompting more investors to expect that the Fed's rate hike cycle may be over.</p><p>However, the media pointed out on Monday that so far, the impact of the above two regional banks seems to have been contained, so if the Fed decides to ease its actions, any subsequent interest rate cuts may be gradual. In any case, the current swap option valuation appears to be overvalued.</p><p>Many sell-side analysts have overturned expectations for a 50 basis point Fed rate hike this week, but the possibility of a pause in rate hike is not high unless the market expects the Fed to think rate hike is enough to curb high inflation. Therefore, 25 basis points on rate hike is the only logical option for the Fed this week.</p><p>During the midday session of U.S. stocks this Monday, the \"Fed Watch Tool\" of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) showed that the current Federal Funds rate futures trading market in the United States predicts that the probability of the Fed's 25 basis points rate hike this week is close to 74%, and the probability of not rate hike dropped from the 38% expected a day ago to just about 26%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04b32695a2794f0ba2d646393014ca8\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684478\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188d7b54791372816e563490a83a7677","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684478","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321657328","content_text":"互换合约交易者对冲美联储大举行动的胃口简直难以置信。只有在美联储未来13个月内降息抵消去年7月以来所有加息幅度时，他们的交易才能实现收支平衡。别只盯着本周美联储加息了，互换合约市场交易者已经在押注明年大降息。媒体惊呼，这些交易者对冲美联储大举行动的胃口简直难以置信。目前，基于隔夜利率的一种利率互换合约——隔夜指数互换（OIS）一年期合约定价显示，投资者押注，到明年3月，美联储会降息接近40个基点，而在那一个月后行权的同类OIS互换期权溢价目前定价超过300个基点。这意味着，只有在美联储未来13个月内降息抵消去年7月以来所有加息幅度时，上述互换合约交易才能实现收支平衡。上周三，被视为美联储喉舌、有“新美联储通讯社”之称的记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，硅谷银行和Signature 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