melson
melson
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avatarmelson
2022-10-14
the chart shows $S&P 500(.SPX)$ in pnf with $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$  blue line and$US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$ orange line. spx bounced off low of 3491.58 because of previous peaks at 3525 region serving as support. this support will be tested again and again to see if it breaks or holds. if it holds, a new rally will begin but what's there to rally about? Santa is coming to town? most likely to cover gaps at 4218.7, 4083.67, and 3739.22 before retreating down to make new lows or rally when fed starts to cut rate in 2024.  if the support at 3525 breaks then the next support is 3375 and 3300 range. that will be anothe
avatarmelson
2024-01-05
$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ made 9 consecutive weekly gains, usually 5 is the norm. when gains exceed 5 consecutive gains, the pullback will usually be very sharp. hence, looking at the pnf chart, a pullback to 14,500 is possible. this is coupled with market being disappointed with fed official's estimated rate cuts in end of 2024 rather than mar 2024. it is expected that us economy will fall into recession in the first half of 2024. $Apple(AAPL)$  fell with great downward momentum. we might be looking at 173.  $Microsoft(MSFT)$  might be revisiting325. tech stocks are very sensitive to interest rates. sinc
avatarmelson
2023-07-21
$LION OCBC HSTECH ETF S$(HST.SI)$   will rise when the Chinese government introduce 2 new economic policies to support non-state-owned businesses. this is the time to accumulate when the price dips.  looking at the candlestick chart, you can observe that higher highs and higher lows are formed. according to dow theory, this is an uptrend. i would accumulate if it drops below 0.666 institutional investors are forward looking, so they would have positioned their funds 6 months before the bubble forms. they would most likely have cut their position when the Chinese economic numbers were bad. but they would most probably have accumulated at the bottom and took profit when the Chinese market rallied. if you examine the pnf chart, it is read
avatarmelson
2022-11-18
$Sea Ltd(SE)$  price is under the sea after rapid interest rate hikes and $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$   reduced its holdings in Jan this year. se has made radical changes to bail water out of its sinking ship, even to the extent of not getting paid until the ship is above water.  in my opinion, there are much better stocks available if you haven't invest in se yet. companies that are profitable and much more well known globally and well diversified.  if you are already vested, let's take a look at the pnf chart. it has bounced off a support at 40 region. and has reached its resistance zone at 65 region. with fed hawks hovering around the stock marke
avatarmelson
2022-11-18
$USD/SGD(USDSGD.FOREX)$   tanked on hopes of fed pivot and monetary authorities of other countries adjusting to balance the strength of usd. i seized the opportunity by exchanging sgd back to usd having previously exchanged usd back to sgd at the peak. this is roughly about 6% difference.  fed hawks just came out to egg the $US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$  up, and fed will continue to hike rates as median cpi is a straight line up although cpi may have subsided.  A. tiger vault suits my needs better as i prefer liquidity during this volatile period. i can do some currency trading. it is also a good time to increase us stock holdings as the market pullback from the recent rally
avatarmelson
2023-10-30
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  looks like going to open higher judging by the overnight trading activity. $US10Y(US10Y.BOND)$   retreated below 5%. 5% is likely the threshold set by algo trading to start selling. hence whenever us10y approaches 5% the market starts selling off.  $FTSE 100(.UKX.UK)$   is the leading indicator of spy. they tend to trend in the same direction. however, spy may lag ukx by a few weeks. ukx has hit the support zone and is making a move higher. spy has also hit the support zone, but it still has a gap to close around 394. with so many headwinds (war escalation, inflation, us government shut
avatarmelson
2022-10-31
$US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$ is very sensitive to fed interest rate and is forward looking. it is pricing in the possibility of 4.5% and is still pushing higher.  $Apple(AAPL)$ and gang are very sensitive to fed rate hikes, once rates are above 0.5% the stocks have retreated from their peaks.  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ trend can be forecasted by ftse100. traditionally, ftse100 is a leading indicator of spx. gbpusd is the leading indicator of ftse100. below shows the charts of ftse100 compared to gbpusd and spx compared to ftse100.  for ftse100 to rally, gbpusd has to break the downward trend. for that to happ
avatarmelson
2024-05-07

crouching dragon?

The 1-year loan prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was maintained at 3.45%. Meanwhile, the 5-year rate, a reference for property mortgages, was retained at 3.95% following a record reduction of 25bps in February. Both rates are at record lows, indicating that Beijing is continuing its attempt to spur an economic recovery following weak activity data in March due to headwinds from the property sector, lingering deflation risks, and fragile trade performance.  The loan prime rate is a reference interest rate used by banks in China to price new loans to their prime customers. It is set by a group of banks under the guidance of the People's Bank of China (PBOC). The loan prime rate is typically adjusted periodically based on market conditions and monet
crouching dragon?
avatarmelson
2024-01-10

testing testing123

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  tanked as pivot guys run road. the fed officials expressed that rate cuts probably by end of 2024 instead of the anticipated cuts in mar. tech companies are very sensitive to interest rates. if interest rates are to remain high for longer, this will strain profit margins.  let's take a look at the pnf chart, it has room to fall till 215. if you observe the candlestick chart, there is a gap at 225 to close.  let's also take a look at the candlestick chart of $US10Y(US10Y.BOND)$ , it rallied upon remarks of fed officials that interest rates will remain high until year end.  do apply automatic investment system where you add shar
testing testing123
avatarmelson
2022-11-17
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$  it behaves like a meme stock and it was a meme stock having appeared on wallstreetbets several times.   every time it would rally close to earnings and then crash. you can look at the candlestick chart and take note of the earnings marking.  it might float up together with santa rally when the whole market gets lifted. maximum around 4. it is bounded by the high interest rate environment. unless fed pause or cut interest rate, it would be in consolidation range between 2 and 4. buy at around 2+ and sell when it reaches around 4. if it breaks out of 4 convincingly then hold on for massive rally.  fed comes out to hawk the market again. so obedient mr market will hide its

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