$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ Anyone else notice what that drop did for AVGO? It landed right on a trend line it has a history of bouncing off hard. Right now it's also showing what looks like a small intraday cup and handle. Just putting it out there for anyone who's watching.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ Posting the screenshots here. The original print was 13B, which was a big miss. It sold off hard after that, and then came the correction. But some still seem to think it sold off hard on a beat. From where I stand, people might be owed some money here. This looks like market manipulation, plain and simple.
Bad job numbers on Friday could actually give the market more room to run. The weaker-than-expected ADP number cut the September rate hike probability from 68% to 62%, which took some pressure off the dollar and the 10Y yield, allowing the market to bounce. Falling oil prices from their overnight highs also helped. ADP matters, but it doesn't carry as much weight as the Friday Non-Farm Payroll numbers. So I went through some historical data to see how often ADP acts as a reliable leading indicator for NFP. Over the past 40 months, ADP and NFP both missed or both exceeded forecasts about 40% of the time. In the other 60%, they diverged, with one missing and one exceeding. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ What has changed today? Nothing? Yet. CVX is officially investing 7B in Venezuela. That is great news on its own, though it will take years to play out, so no immediate impact.
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ SOXX update. I'm still expecting the next bounce to target the 583-600 zone. The catch is that it needs buyers to step in and defend the 500 area to set that up. NVDA's earnings call offered a rosier tone for semis, but the follow-through didn't last and we saw another red candle. If price can stay supported near 500, there's a reasonable chance of at least trying for the 560 area again. Timing matters, though, and this needs to happen without dragging on. A convincing close below 500 on SOXX with real selling pressure would flip the setup bearish and point to
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ Not tax advice or stock advice. I'm holding to avoid triggering the wash sale rule myself. The 61-day window covers 30 days before the sale, the sale date, and 30 days after. If you trigger it, the capital loss can't be deducted on your current-year return. Instead, the disallowed loss gets added to the cost basis of the new shares, which delays the tax benefit until you eventually sell that position.
For optical traders, three columns worth noting: the last column is percentage up from the 52-week low, second from last is percentage down from the 52-week high, and third from last is RSI. I didn't realize $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ was down 51% from its 52-week high, but still up 515% from the 52-week low. That's pretty impressive. $Fabrinet(FN)$ only managed a 39% gain from its 52-week low while the others are showing triple-digit gains. Value buying? $Lumentum(LITE)$ leads the group with a 651% gain off the 52-week low. The frustrating part is I traded in and out and didn't capture much of that move.