EdwardHughes
EdwardHughes
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avatarEdwardHughes
2022-07-14
Public Service Announcement: Novavax will be reporting its FQ2'22 earnings on 04 August 2022.By now, NVAX only exported 157.01M of its stellar COVID-19 vaccine, at a time when the world is mostly inoculated or has obtained natural immunity.We are reiterating our previous recommendation: Sell at the peak when the US FDA finally issues their approval tomorrow.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-09-08

Shopify: Challenging Outlook As User Growth Slows

In this analysis of Shopify Inc. (NYSE:SHOP), we examined the company as it released its quarterly earnings in July, which showed a slowdown in revenue growth to just 15% compared to its 5-year average of 64%. Moreover, excluding2020, its 5-year average growth was 59% compared to a 9-year average of 81%. We looked into the company’s user, gross merchandise value (GMV), and take rate growth.Slowing Users Growth From Average Of 50% Shopify 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Average Users ('mln') 0.38 0.61 0.82 1.00 1.75 2.06 Growth % 88.75% 61.32% 34.65% 21.95% 74.90% 17.95% 49.92% Revenue ($ mln) 389.30 673.30 1,073 1,578 2,930 4,612 Growth % 89.72% 72.95% 59.39% 47.06% 85.62% 57.43% 68.70% Source: Shopify, Khaveen InvestmentsIn terms of user growth, the company’suser basehad expanded significan
Shopify: Challenging Outlook As User Growth Slows
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-05-06

Grab Is Growing Fast But The Valuation Is Too High

Grab is the number one super app in Southeast Asia, investors not familiar with it can think of it as merging Uber with a banking app. Its services include mobility, package deliveries, food deliveries, and financial services. So what is a super app? Grab imagines customers can use the app for many of their daily needs, from ordering a ride to ordering food, or even booking a hotel. Source: Grab Investor Presentation Cohort Analysis Looking at the different cohorts of users it is clear that the longer they have the app installed the more they transact on it. After three years users approximately double the transaction amount, and by year five they more than triple their transactions. This speaks to significant stickiness for the app, and it reflects high user satisfaction with it. Source:
Grab Is Growing Fast But The Valuation Is Too High
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-08-01
The uncommon phenomenon known as backwardation in VIX futures markets has recently occurred again.Persistent inflation, fears of an economic slowdown, and rising interest rates have led to a spike in the "fear index".The S&P 500 is now officially in a bear market, down more than 20% from its previous highs.ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF, a popular vehicle used to invest in volatility, is up 20% this year.Is there still more room for volatility to rise? Let's discuss.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-04-12
Apple continues to innovate hardware products although growth in each product line has been erratic. Apple's hardware, despite slow and erratic growth enhances the functionality of its Services business, which is the future of the company.- Apple's stock is increasing along with the 10-year treasury rate, a positive for the company as most other technology stocks have plummeted.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-07-27

DiDi Slapped With Hefty $1.2 Billion Fine. How Was The Amount Determined?

Paying 8 billion yuan ($1.2 billion) to get rid of a nightmare: is it too much?On 21 July, the Cyberspace Administration of China released a decision on administrative penalties on DiDi Global Inc.(OTCPK:DIDIY), following a cybersecurity review into the company, and fined the company 8.026 billion yuan.According to the authority, conclusive evidence and clear facts have shown the company's egregious and malicious violations of laws and regulations including China's Cybersecurity Law, Data Security Law as well as the Personal Information Protection Law. And the chairman and CEO of the company Cheng Wei and President Liu Qing were both fined 1 million yuan personally.The fine amounted to 4.6% of the company's total operating revenue of 173.8 billion yuan in 2021 and is the big
DiDi Slapped With Hefty $1.2 Billion Fine. How Was The Amount Determined?
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-09-01

Intel: World-Class Financial Engineering

Investment ThesisDespite some distractions like the financial engineering discussed here, overall Intel (INTC) stock remains heavily impacted by two near-term issues: the recessionary and post-COVID decline in PC demand and the lingering processdelays while Intel catches up to regain leadership in 2025. Since both of these issues will most likely end up being rather temporary, investors with a longer-term mindset could benefit from the current stock weakness.Financial engineering: Smart CapitalIntel initially announced its memorandum of understanding with Brookfield in February as part of its Investor Meeting, and as part of its “Smart Capital” strategy, which Intel first talked about late last year when it had delayed its 2021 Investor Meeting to February. Smart capital is an umbrella ter
Intel: World-Class Financial Engineering
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-09-01
Senior Shopify manager Ana Raman answers a question about how significant a threat Buy with Prime is to SFN at the August Canaccord Growth Conference mentioned earlier. The point is made that it is great for merchants if Amazon is coming over their walled gardens and helping independent merchants. Still, Amazon is customer-focused while Shopify is merchant-focused. Amazon is not as good as Shopify in terms of letting merchants own their buyers, channels, data and brand.
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-07-26

Upstart: Fool Me Once, Shame On You, Fool Me Twice...

Shame on me. This is the second time Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) has forced me to write an article about them sooner than I intended. At this point, if you follow Upstart then you most likely saw the news that they announced Q2 preliminary financial resultsearly, and they weren't pretty. They missed big on both revenue and net income. The stock responded accordingly, dropping 20% on Friday. I'll break down the press release and what it means for the company going forward.Wall Street Got What They Asked ForWhen Upstart reported Q1 earnings, they announced that the market for their loans had softened and so they stepped in with their balance sheet to make up the difference. That means they used their own cash to fund about $150M in personal loans. The market did not take kindly to this a
Upstart: Fool Me Once, Shame On You, Fool Me Twice...
avatarEdwardHughes
2022-07-01
On the back of global inflationary pressures and the supply concerns have been on a sharply risingtrend.Fuelled by a widened crack spread, the increase in jet fuel price was even steepernow standing at over US$180/bbl and matching the historical high last seen in 2008.The high jet fuel prices are expected to lead airfares to stabilise at a higher equilibrium level.While we believe that the strong pent-up air travel demand being fulfilled currently and in the upcoming months would be relatively more inelastic to higher airfares a sustained high jet fuel price(and the resultant high airfares) may eventually dampen the air travel demand in the longer term.

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