AfraSimon
AfraSimon
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10-16 18:38

5 best charts: How long do rotations out of Tech last?

1. October FedWatch October rate hike expectations fade. After reaching as high as 53% yesterday following CPI, the probability of a hike has dropped below 30% amid a strong rally in Treasuries and dovish Fed pushback. 2. Tech vs. ex-Tech positioning. MCG & Tech positioning has started to cool, but the trade remains crowded compared with the rest of the market. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ 3. Hedge funds vs. AI Yesterday, global AI stocks saw the second-largest net selling of the past year, behind only the Situational Awareness blow-up in July. Long sales outpaced short sales 3.5 to 1. 4. New Era
5 best charts: How long do rotations out of Tech last?
avatarAfraSimon
10-15 19:11

5 of Wednesday's best charts and insights

1. CPI. "This is the diffusion of CPI inflation, measured similarly to Kevin Warsh's preferred PCE inflation diffusion metric. It's down." 2. Buybacks. "We are currently in peak earnings blackout, with just 24% of S&P 500 index weight outside repurchase blackout windows. That figure rises to ~55% by month-end, ~75% by November 3 (Midterm Election Day), and ~85% by November 9, as companies report earnings and trading windows reopen." 3. SPX streak. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 's streak of consecutive days without a decline of at least 1% ends at 53. It was the longest since 2020. See full dashboard here. 4. Semis corrections cluster. "The semis are now in their 4th 10%+ correction since early June. That's the most corrections inside
5 of Wednesday's best charts and insights
avatarAfraSimon
10-15 19:03

The Great Neocloud Meltdown 📉 AI Infrastructure Stocks Crushed

The AI infrastructure trade is taking a beating. From neocloud providers and data center operators to Bitcoin miners pivoting toward AI compute, drawdowns have reached 50%–86% from highs across much of the sector. 🔻 Down More Than 70% $Soluna Holdings, Inc.(SLNH)$ : -85.99%$BOOST RUN INC(BRUN)$ : -77.02%$Bit Digital, Inc.(BTBT)$ : -76.26%$Bitzero Holdings Inc.(AIBZ)$ : -73.76%$WhiteFiber, Inc.(WYFI)$ : -72.84%$Bitdeer Technologies Group(BTDR)$ : -70.58%$Digi Power X Inc.(DGXX)$ : -70.54% 📉 Down
The Great Neocloud Meltdown 📉 AI Infrastructure Stocks Crushed

5 of Monday's best charts and insights

1. Dollar positioning Institutional investors have piled back into USD in recent weeks. 2. BTC vs. 200MA "Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day on Aug 19 after 289 sessions below, the 3rd-longest stretch since 2014. 51 sessions on it is +19.2%; the 2019 reclaim was +62% at this point and 2023's +13%, then +55% and +36% a year out. Friday $82,546, -34% from the peak. Trend reclaimed." 3.  $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ vs. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ skew "VIX upside convexity has gone extremely bid while SPX downside convexity remains very offered ... as a colleague on our index vol desk said, 'there is almost a higher probability of VIX 25+ than there is of SPX -2%'" 4. EBIT margins "Corporate margins con
5 of Monday's best charts and insights

How to Find a Great Trade Idea 🔎📈

Instead of just posting a chart and telling you what I like, I’m going to walk you through my process for finding and managing a potential trade. 1️⃣ Start with sector strength I head to Finviz and create a watchlist of major ETFs, then bring them into the screener and filter by relative strength over the week, month, or quarter. Right now, energy and software stand out. Software looks like the cleaner setup. 2️⃣ Narrow it down to the strongest stocks Clear the filters, go to the Themes section, select software, add any other filters you prefer, and sort by monthly performance. Take the top 10 names and switch to the Charts tab. Look for stocks holding near their highs without being overly extended, or names forming a flag with a clear risk/reward setup. 3️⃣ Find the best setup, then check
How to Find a Great Trade Idea 🔎📈

How I Use Trailing Stops to Capture More of the Move

First, WHY I use trailing stops. Scenario 1: You hold through weeks of chop. The stock finally breaks out, you sell to lock in gains… and it rips another 50% over the next month. Scenario 2: You build a great thesis, do the research, and enter. The stock turns against you, but you hesitate because “it can still work.” A month later, you’re down 25%. The common point of failure? The sell button. I used to sell too early on the way up and wait too long to get out on the way down. Both were frustrating. Trailing stops helped me take the emotion out of that decision. In my view, they’re one of the most underutilized tools in trading. Here’s my approach 👇 1️⃣ Calculate the stock’s ATR% ATR, or Average True Range, measures typical price movement. I use the 14-day ATR divided by the current share
How I Use Trailing Stops to Capture More of the Move

Before You Size Up, Score the Market Environment First

A perfect setup on an individual ticker means very little if the broader environment isn’t cooperating. Before increasing exposure, I run through 5 things: 1️⃣ Index strength Did $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ and/or $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ put in a strong weekly close? 2️⃣ Macro catalysts What events, economic data, or holidays could affect liquidity and volatility? 3️⃣ Market breadth What are $RSP and the percentage of stocks above their 50-day SMA telling us? 4️⃣ Leadership + speculation Are market leaders acting well? Is speculative appetite holding up in $BTC and growth stocks? 5️⃣ Headwinds What are the 10-year yield, oil, VIX, and the news flow doing? 📍 My read from Sunday night’s review: $SPY had a st
Before You Size Up, Score the Market Environment First

The Less You Trade, the More You Can Make

It takes years to realize that trading less can make you more money. In the beginning, you feel like you always need to be doing something. You hunt for setups that aren’t there. You open positions because you’re bored. You chase stocks simply because they’re moving. Eventually, you learn the truth: Most opportunities aren’t worth taking. Most trades are unnecessary. Your job isn’t to catch every move. It’s to wait for the fat pitch—the setup where the odds, risk/reward, and conviction all line up. And when it comes, have the discipline to size up appropriately. The hardest part? Doing nothing while other stocks run without you. Resisting the urge to trade just because you feel like you’re missing out. But you don’t need to catch every move. You need to catch the right ones. The money isn’
The Less You Trade, the More You Can Make

Earnings Season Playbook 📊 7 Rules I Follow Before Betting on a Report

With some major earnings coming up over the next few weeks, here’s how I approach earnings season. 1️⃣ Watch the overall tape first. If $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is weak, stocks often struggle to rally on earnings—even when the numbers are outstanding. The market environment matters. 2️⃣ Be careful when a stock has already run. If a name is up 10% or more in the roughly 10 days before earnings, I get more cautious. A lot of good news may already be priced in. 3️⃣ Watch the reaction, not just the numbers. One of my favorite signals? Bad news comes out, but the stock refuses to drop. That relative strength can hint at a move higher. 4️⃣ Remember that news follows price. The narrative often changes after a big move. Price moves first; explanat
Earnings Season Playbook 📊 7 Rules I Follow Before Betting on a Report

$RSP Finally Outperforms $SPY After 7 Weeks. Is Market Breadth Turning?

Something notable is happening beneath the surface. The equal-weight S&P 500 ETF $Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF(RSP)$ was RED for 7 consecutive weeks while the cap-weighted $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ kept pushing to all-time highs. That divergence was worth watching. Index strength was masking weakness across the broader market. This week, the picture changed. $RSP is outperforming $SPY for the first time in almost TWO months. One week doesn’t confirm a trend, but it could be the first sign that market participation is starting to broaden. The timing is interesting, too. We’re seeing early signs of rotation and breadth expansion in the first full week of Q4. If more stocks begin participat
$RSP Finally Outperforms $SPY After 7 Weeks. Is Market Breadth Turning?

Indexes at ATHs, but Your Stocks Aren’t Participating?

This market is psychologically tough. You see the indexes printing all-time highs, yet many individual stocks are struggling, chopping around or simply failing to participate. Don't get discouraged. This is an extremely difficult market, even for experienced traders. Some of the best traders I know are getting put through the wringer right now. But there's another way to look at the lack of participation. The glass-half-full view? The market may not have experienced its broadest phase of upside yet. 📈 Three Potential Bullish Takeaways 1️⃣ There could be more upside fuel than people realize. If the indexes are already at all-time highs despite narrow participation, improving breadth could provide another leg higher. 2️⃣ The next major opportunity could be breadth expansion. The biggest oppo
Indexes at ATHs, but Your Stocks Aren’t Participating?

Markets Are All About Context

Getting a “you up?” text at 11 PM on a Saturday is VERY different from getting the exact same text at 11 AM on a Tuesday. 😂 Same message. Completely different context. Markets work the same way. The exact same chart setup can produce very different outcomes depending on the environment around it. Narrative, risk appetite, macro conditions, positioning and catalysts all matter. The chart may look identical on the surface, but the context can change the entire trade. Developing an eye for that context can make a huge difference to your P&L. 🧭 What I'm Watching Right Now 10-year yields — pushing toward multi-year highs Oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2611(CLmain)$ — staying firm Bitcoin — showing strong momentum Elections — adding another potential
Markets Are All About Context

$MU The Memory Supply Flood May Be Much Further Away Than Bears Think

Memory bears keep predicting a flood of new supply. But look at when $Micron Technology(MU)$ ’s new fabs actually start producing: 🏭 Early 2027 — Singapore HBM packaging plant 🏭 Mid-2027 — Tongluo, Taiwan, first wafers in small volumes 🏭 Late 2028 — Tongluo at volume, Hiroshima DRAM, new Idaho fabs 🏭 2H 2028 — Singapore NAND fab 🏭 2030+ — New York Almost nothing meaningfully adds DRAM bits before mid-2027. And even once a cleanroom is ready, it takes years to fully load it with equipment and ramp production. That means meaningful incremental capacity may not arrive until 2029. This is why management expects 2027 and 2028 to be tighter than 2026. Tighter supply → higher prices → stronger margins. And there’s another potential catalyst.
$MU The Memory Supply Flood May Be Much Further Away Than Bears Think

$SPY at ATHs While 10Y Yields Hit 24-Year Highs

The bond market and equity market are sending very different signals right now. The 10-year Treasury yield just pushed to a fresh 24-year high, reaching around 5.36%, while $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is simultaneously making new all-time highs. That kind of divergence is pretty rare in modern markets. So which market blinks first? Either bonds are about to reverse, or equities are showing an absurd amount of underlying strength. Maybe both. The really interesting setup comes next: If yields start rolling over without growth slowing or breaking, the equity rally could accelerate very quickly into year-end. 🚀 For now, I’m watching the relationship between $SPY and the 10-year yield very closely. The divergence itself may be the signal. 👀 Marke
$SPY at ATHs While 10Y Yields Hit 24-Year Highs

$MU Bears Are Missing the Real Memory Problem

Bears jumped on reports that $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ may use less HBM per GPU. But $Micron Technology(MU)$ CEO Sanjay Mehrotra pushed back on the demand narrative. The issue is supply, not demand. Customers may put less memory into each server simply because there isn’t enough HBM to fully equip every system. In other words: They’re reducing memory per server so they can ship more servers. That’s very different from AI demand weakening. And there’s a limit to how far you can de-spec. You can go from 12 HBM stacks to 8. But you can’t keep cutting memory while AI models continue getting larger and workloads become more memory-intensive. Micron’s pricing power tells the same story. For every $100 of memory sold last qu
$MU Bears Are Missing the Real Memory Problem

Buying Is Easy. Holding Is the Hard Part

We need more conversation around how to actually hold stocks longer. Everyone wants a 100% mover — until it’s time to actually hold one for 100%. If you’re constantly selling the moment you see some green because the money starts burning a hole in your pocket, try a simple framework: “Half off for the heat, stop at breakeven.” When my brain starts screaming “SELL,” I take roughly 50% off the position. Then I move the stop on the remaining half to breakeven or use a trailing stop. That remaining position becomes the core. I can trade around it, add when the setup improves, or simply let it breathe. The goal isn’t to perfectly time the exit. It’s to give your best ideas enough room to become big winners. Buying is easy. Holding is hard. Find a framework that fits your personality and your ps
Buying Is Easy. Holding Is the Hard Part

The AI Server Power Supply Chain ⚡

As AI server power density keeps rising, the power infrastructure stack is becoming an increasingly important part of the AI buildout. Here’s the supply chain to watch: 🔹 Microcontroller Units$Texas Instruments(TXN)$ $NXP Semiconductors NV(NXPI)$ $Infrax Systems Inc.(IFXY)$ $STMicroelectronics NV(STM)$ 🔹 Battery Management Systems$Analog Devices(ADI)$ $Texas Instruments(TXN)$ $NXP Semiconductors NV(NXPI)$ $Infineon Technologies AG(IFNNF)$
The AI Server Power Supply Chain ⚡

$MU Buyback Unlock Could Be the Next Catalyst

$Micron Technology(MU)$ bought back just $650M of stock in FY2026. The reason? CHIPS Act restrictions limited larger buybacks for two years. That restriction expires on December 9. After that, Micron enters a very different capital-return setup: 💰 $73.5B in cash + long-term investments 💳 Just $5.2B of debt 🔥 Massive free cash flow generation 📈 Management has stated a goal of returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders Micron’s CFO also said the company expects to increase capital returns after December 9 and plans to seek additional buyback authorization. That could become a major catalyst for $MU. If earnings and FCF remain anywhere near the current trajectory, the combination of AI-driven memory demand + pricing power + buybacks could dramatical
$MU Buyback Unlock Could Be the Next Catalyst

Brazilian Stocks Explode After Bolsonaro Takes First-Round Lead

Brazilian stocks surged after Flávio Bolsonaro led President Lula da Silva in the first round, triggering a broad rally across Brazil-linked names. The runoff is set for October 25. The biggest movers: 🚀 $XP Inc.(XP)$ +33.42% 🔥 $Picpay Holdings Netherlands B.V.(PICS)$ +26.51% 🔥 $StoneCo(STNE)$ +24.35% 🔥 $Inter & Co Inc(INTR)$ +23.40% 🔥 $Pagseguro Digital Ltd.(PAGS)$ +22.62% 📈 $Bank Bradesco SA(BBD)$ +19.71% 📈 $AGI(AGBK)$ +19.23% 📈 $Sabesp(SBS)$ +1
Brazilian Stocks Explode After Bolsonaro Takes First-Round Lead

Semis Are Leading, $HOOD Is My Crypto Swing, $ALAB Looks Ridiculous 🔥

Semiconductors are absurdly strong right now. 🔥 I’m not currently in $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , but just look at the 1-month performance across semiconductors. Some of the biggest names in the AI trade are absolutely herculean right now. And you’re bearish? 🤨 Follow da leader. ₿ Crypto strength is another theme I’m watching. One of my favorite swing ideas remains $Robinhood(HOOD)$ around ~$112. New verticals. Trailblazing CEO. Cult-like following. Strong story. It’s not always the smoothest mover, but I think $150 is coming soon. 🚀 🔥 $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ is another one I’m watching closely. Technical setups rarely drive my swing decisions, but this one
Semis Are Leading, $HOOD Is My Crypto Swing, $ALAB Looks Ridiculous 🔥

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