On Tuesday, March 3rd, international gold prices experienced a significant decline, closing lower. This drop was driven by market concerns that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could exacerbate inflationary pressures, which in turn boosted the US dollar's strength. Consequently, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut have been pushed back from July to September, putting downward pressure on gold and causing it to erase the gains of the previous two weeks, aligning with the intraday bearish divergence forecast.
However, following this decline, gold prices once again tested the support level of the prior ascending trend channel, presenting another buying opportunity for bullish positions. Supported by underlying demand and the persistent risk of geopolitical tensions—further fueled by statements from Donald Trump regarding potential tariff increases after a 15% tariff period expires—the fundamental outlook for gold remains favorable. Therefore, future price movements are expected to trend upwards in a volatile manner.
In terms of price action, gold opened the Asian session at $5,324.24 per ounce, initially rising to an intraday high of $5,379.30 before encountering resistance and turning lower. The decline continued through the European and US sessions, with two notable drops, leading to an intraday low of $4,995.72 around 11 PM New York time. The metal subsequently rebounded from these lows to close at $5,088.54, marking a daily trading range of $383.58, a decline of $235.70, or 4.43%.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, March 4th, international gold opened with strength, extending the recovery momentum from the late overnight session. This upward movement is supported by robust bullish buying interest and a slightly weaker US dollar, which opened with limited momentum following its overnight pullback.
In the short term, the US dollar index remains below key resistance levels. Until it decisively breaks above the 200-week moving average, its outlook is relatively weak, which should limit downward pressure on gold. From both technical and fundamental perspectives, bullish factors continue to hold an advantage for gold. Therefore, the trading strategy remains to buy on minor dips, increase positions on larger declines, and avoid buying when prices are stable.
Market participants will focus on economic data releases today, including the US ADP Employment Change for February, the S&P Global Services PMI Final, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for February. While these figures are generally expected to be bearish for gold, the anticipation of positive job data later in the week on Thursday and Friday should limit any significant negative impact. The intraday strategy favors short-term selling on rallies with an overall bullish bias.
From a technical standpoint, on the monthly chart, gold declined sharply in February following a bearish reversal pattern from January, but found support near the ascending trendline resistance-turned-support that was breached earlier in the year. This rebound dispelled immediate concerns of a major top formation. Although prices have retreated this month, they remain above the 5-month moving average, indicating that the overall bull market structure is intact with a positive outlook. Prices are expected to continue trading above the ascending trendline and eventually climb to new highs.
On the weekly chart, gold faced resistance and pulled back this week, retesting support below the 5-week moving average. The overall uptrend remains valid. A further decline would bring the 10-week moving average and the middle Bollinger Band into focus as potential support levels and buying opportunities.
On the daily chart, gold has declined sharply to test support near the middle Bollinger Band and the ascending trend channel. Although the ZZ indicator does not yet signal a bottom, this level still presents a buying opportunity for a bullish view. A further drop toward the 60-day moving average would offer another chance to establish medium to long-term positions.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday trading levels for reference; exact entry and exit points should be confirmed via real-time account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are near $5,060 or $4,970; resistance levels are near $5,180 or $5,260. Silver: Support levels to watch are near $80.00 or $77.60; resistance levels are near $86.70 or $89.30.
