As the year draws to a close, market activity has thinned, with major global stock indices entering a phase of narrow-range consolidation as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting minutes. The metals market displayed a divergent pattern, with gold, silver, platinum, copper, and nickel advancing, while palladium hit a limit-down during the session.
On December 30, US stock index futures were largely flat, European shares mostly declined, and Asian equities were mixed. The US dollar and US Treasuries held steady, while the onshore yuan breached the 7 mark against the dollar. Metals were mixed, with silver rebounding 4% to recoup some losses, spot gold rising over 1%, London copper gaining nearly 3%, and palladium touching limit-down. Crude oil experienced a slight pullback, while cryptocurrencies posted modest gains.
The minutes from the Fed's December monetary policy meeting are scheduled for release at 3:00 AM Beijing Time on December 31. These minutes are expected to provide crucial guidance on the interest rate path for 2026. During the December 10 policy meeting, the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, although internal views were divided: two policymakers advocated for holding rates steady, while another supported a more aggressive 50 basis point cut.
According to the dot plot released in December, a majority of policymakers projected only one 25 basis point rate cut for 2026, but individual members' forecasts showed significant divergence, reflecting uncertainty in their assessment of the economic outlook.
Key market movements are as follows:
Dow Jones futures rose 0.01%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.01%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.02%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 index opened down 0.1%, Germany's DAX index declined 0.1%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 0.1%, and France's CAC 40 index fell 0.2%.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.4% at 50,339.48 points; the Topix index ended 0.5% lower at 3,408.97 points; South Korea's KOSPI closed down 0.2% at 4,214.17 points.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was essentially flat at 4.11%.
The US Dollar Index held steady; the onshore yuan broke through the 7 level for the first time since 2023.
Spot silver surged over 4% to $75.14 per ounce; spot gold advanced 0.8% to $4,365.33 per ounce; base metals were broadly higher, with London copper up nearly 3%, London nickel gaining almost 5%, London tin rising nearly 2%, and London zinc increasing over 1%; WTI crude oil was largely unchanged at $58 per barrel.
Bitcoin rose 0.1% to $87,319.51, while Ethereum's price increased 0.3% to $2,943.17.
US stock index futures were largely flat. Despite the S&P 500's 17% gain this year lagging behind most major global equity markets, a consensus has formed on Wall Street: US stocks are poised to extend their rally into 2026. Even facing potential risks such as a slowdown in artificial intelligence development and unexpected policy shocks, sell-side strategists still predict the index could achieve an average gain of approximately 9% next year.
Today marked the final trading session of the year for Japanese and South Korean stock markets. Year-to-date, South Korea's KOSPI has surged 75.6%, marking its largest annual gain since 1999. The Nikkei 225 index held firm above the 50,000-point level.
The onshore yuan strengthened past the psychologically significant 7.0 level against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since May 17, 2023. The offshore yuan had already breached this closely watched threshold on December 25. Market participants anticipate further appreciation potential for the yuan, supported by capital inflows and expectations for economic recovery.
Spot silver rebounded nearly 4% to $74.7 per ounce, following a steep 9% plunge in the previous session. Prior to this sell-off, silver prices had experienced a historically strong rally fueled by heightened market speculation and concerns over a structural supply shortage.
Spot gold climbed nearly 1% to $4,368.68 per ounce, after falling more than 4% in the prior trading session.
London copper surged nearly 3% at one point, putting copper prices on track for their longest winning streak since 2017. The December rally has been bolstered by expectations of additional pressure on supply chains.
WTI crude oil was largely unchanged at $58 per barrel. Traders continued to assess geopolitical risks against supply and demand fundamentals. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, Russia, and Iran pose potential disruptions to crude supply, while structural concerns about a global oil supply surplus persist.
