Summary
- Apple will likely deliver record-breaking results in fiscal second quarter. But investors' and analysts' expectations also are set very high.
- I see three paths to share price appreciation following earnings day. The least likely trigger of bullishness, in my view, is past results.
- I remain an AAPL bull due to the quality of the product and service portfolio and strong balance sheet, despite rich valuations.
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Big tech earnings week begins on April 26, and Apple (AAPL) will deliver its fiscal second quarter results on Wednesday.
There's little doubt, if any, that the Cupertino-based tech company will drop the mic against soft, pandemic-disrupted 2020 comps. In fact, Wall Street's consensus 32% top-line growth would bea five-year recordat least. Projected EPS of about $1 would be nearly twice as large as the "normal" fiscal second quarter earnings of $0.50 to $0.60 per share.
The problem then becomes: With valuations as rich as they have been recently (see chart below) and the bar for financial results set very high, what could possibly move Apple stock north, following earnings day?
Of course, the first path to share price gains is financial results that are even higher than what analysts and investors currently expect. Due to the size of the segment (about half of total revenues in fiscal 2020), the iPhone could single-handedly do the trick.
One research companyexpects total global smartphone shipments to grow a whopping 50% YOY in the first three months of 2021. Not only that, but Apple is expected to defend an unlikely and rare September-to-March number one position in the market, outshining perma-leader Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)and perma-disrupter Huawei. Lastly, the mix of iPhone sales will probably skew to the higher end, followingreports of softnessin 12 mini demand. This should bode well for ASP (average selling price) and margins.
At least one more segment could wow investors on earnings day. The Mac accounts for only about 10% of Apple's revenues. Butat least one market research firmsees PC shipments increasing by an astounding 55% in the first calendar quarter of 2021. Believe it or not, Apple could perform about twice as strong, according to the same company.
The back-of-the-envelope math here is simple: Assuming no change in average prices, 110% growth in Mac revenues times 10% total company revenue share adds up to 11% in top-line increase YOY. Apple, as a whole (i.e. with the help of all its segments), has not produced such revenue growth rates since 2018.
Reinstatement of guidance
Even if Apple blows past fiscal second quarter estimates that already are aggressive, I'm skeptical that share price will react positively. It's plausible that investors will see the results as one-off, pandemic recovery performance that is already in the rear-view mirror.
Therefore, what would most likely nudge the stock higher, if anything, is reinstatement of guidance – and a great one, of course. Starting precisely withfiscal second quarter earnings season last year, Apple's management team decided to stop offering its outlook due to COVID-19 uncertainties.
In a way, delivering above-consensus results and providing above-consensus guidance would be akin to two earnings beats in a single day. Also, it would offer investors something to focus on and look forward to beyond easy early pandemic comps. The tables below highlight the revenue and EPS metrics that Apple would be looking to beat with its outlook.
Cutting corners: Cash to shareholders
Lastly, Apple could bypass the P&L altogether and spark bullishness by announcing an increase in cash payments to shareholders. The chart below shows that, since Tim Cook took over as CEO of the company, Apple has been a consistent (1) payer of dividends and (2) net buyer of its own stock.
Despite all the past disbursements, Apple still holds nearly $200 billion in cash, equivalents and investments (or just short of $80 billion, in net-of-debt terms). In addition, Apple seems to have easy access to cheap money as the company proved to be the casewhen it issued $14 billionin debt in February 2021 at rates of only 115 to 120 basis points above Treasuries.
Data by YCharts
Take share buybacks, for instance. Apple's net cash position is large enough to repurchase nearly 5% of the company's equity at current market prices, which represents just as much of a boost to EPS (think of the earnings divided by outstanding shares equation). If executed quickly enough, buying back stock would have the added benefit of increasing demand for Apple's shares, probably lifting their price.
It would be out of character for Apple to accelerate dividend payments or share retirement. But again, should the "hidden agenda" be to grow the market value of the company's equity, putting Apple's pile of cash to more productive use would not be a bad idea at all.