Abstract
Walmart Inc. reports fiscal first-quarter results on May 21, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview highlights consensus revenue of 174.71 billion US dollars year over year growth of 5.29%, adjusted EPS of 0.66 year over year growth of 13.91%, and the key debates around Walmart U.S. execution, eCommerce momentum, and margins.Market Forecast
The market expects Walmart Inc. to deliver revenue of 174.71 billion US dollars year over year growth of 5.29%, adjusted EPS of 0.66 year over year growth of 13.91%, and EBIT of 7.74 billion US dollars year over year growth of 10.30% for the current quarter; margin forecasts are not explicitly provided in the latest consensus. The base case centers on sustained strength in Walmart U.S. and continued digital growth offsetting mix pressures, with operating discipline and automation expected to support profitability. The most promising segment remains Walmart U.S., which generated 129.22 billion US dollars in last quarter’s sales year over year growth of 4.60%, underpinned by rapid eCommerce expansion previously reported at 27% growth.Last Quarter Review
Walmart Inc. posted last quarter revenue of 190.66 billion US dollars year over year growth of 5.60%, a gross profit margin of 24.67%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 4.24 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 2.22%, and adjusted EPS of 0.74 year over year growth of 12.12%. Operating earnings were solid, with EBIT at 8.57 billion US dollars year over year growth of 10.49%, supported by operating leverage and cost control. Main business highlights included Walmart U.S. net sales of 129.22 billion US dollars year over year growth of 4.60% with eCommerce up 27%, and Sam’s Club U.S. net sales of 23.76 billion US dollars year over year growth of 2.90% alongside 23% eCommerce growth.Current Quarter Outlook
Walmart U.S.: traffic resilience, mix, and price investments
Walmart U.S. remains the performance fulcrum this quarter, with the consensus narrative anchored in steady traffic, a continued mix skew to consumables, and a disciplined cadence of price investments. The mix dynamic matters for margins because strength in grocery and household essentials can compress category-level gross profit while still driving higher frequency and loyalty; analysts expect operating leverage, procurement gains, and improved in-stock levels to partly offset this effect. The company has leaned into convenience and value to retain higher-income and budget-sensitive shoppers alike, and the sustained run-rate of store-fulfilled pickup and delivery provides a volume base for digital growth. Profit translation will be watched against a seasonally less promotional post-holiday quarter, and management’s commentary on inventory flow, shrink mitigation, and markdown requirements will shape how investors assess the sustainability of EBIT expansion. Consensus now embeds mid-single-digit total revenue growth and double-digit EBIT growth, indicating the market’s expectation that operating discipline can bridge the mix headwinds without requiring outsized margin assumptions.eCommerce, marketplace, and advertising: compounding digital tailwinds
Digital and related high-margin initiatives remain the clearest structural tailwinds, after last quarter’s eCommerce growth of 27% in Walmart U.S. and 23% at Sam’s Club. Analysts highlight that marketplace expansion, improved third-party assortment, and increased store-fulfilled last-mile density are reinforcing each other, helping order economics and customer retention. Advertising is a key supporting pillar: several research notes point to advertising and AI-enablement as margin accretive growth engines, with Walmart Connect benefiting from broader marketplace participation and richer retail media capabilities; while explicit revenue figures for advertising were not disclosed last quarter, the direction of travel—more advertisers, better targeting signals, and deeper on-site integration—supports margin mix. The membership flywheel is an additional catalyst: Walmart+ and Sam’s Club membership trends continue to enhance repeat frequency and cross-channel engagement, providing both direct fee income and indirect uplift for digital orders. This quarter, investors will look for qualitative signs that the digital run-rate can hold well above core store growth, such as commentary on marketplace seller growth, ad load and yield, repeat cohort behavior, and last-mile efficiency metrics. If management confirms continued traction across these levers, the setup for sustained EBIT outperformance strengthens even without explicit margin guidance.Key stock-price swing factors this quarter
Quarterly same-store sales cadence and any commentary on comp drivers will influence how investors calibrate the balance between traffic growth and average ticket, particularly as inflation cools in some categories while remaining persistent in others. Margin color will be pivotal: the Street will parse gross margin puts and takes around consumables mix, private-brand penetration, retail media contribution, and logistics productivity; investors will also scrutinize SG&A trends given ongoing technology investments. Capital return and cost discipline are part of the near-term narrative: after the prior quarter’s large buyback authorization, execution pace on repurchases and comments on capital allocation prioritize how investors benchmark free cash flow durability. Separate reporting indicates the company is streamlining certain corporate functions, which could translate into incremental operating efficiency over time; this quarter’s opex commentary and any quantified savings or redeployment plans will be watched to see how they support multi-year margin ambitions. Finally, forward-looking guidance will set the tone: Walmart Inc. has historically guided prudently, and how management frames revenue growth, investment priorities, and profitability drivers for the remainder of the year will likely dictate post-report stock reaction more than the headline print itself.Analyst Opinions
Across the latest six-month window, analyst sentiment skews decisively positive: among the major notes captured since early February, five were bullish and one was cautious, implying roughly 83% bullish vs 17% bearish. The prevailing view emphasizes resilient comp growth, durable eCommerce adoption, and the compounding effect of retail media and AI-driven productivity on margins.Jefferies maintained a Buy rating with a 145.00 US dollars price target, citing sustained top-line momentum and the favorable contribution from digital initiatives to the margin structure. KeyBanc likewise reiterated Buy with a 145.00 US dollars target, underscoring consistent execution and the early innings of higher-margin profit pools tied to advertising and marketplace scale. Bernstein kept Buy and raised the target to 134.00 US dollars, explicitly calling out “emerging eCommerce, AI, and advertising tailwinds,” which aligns with the market’s expectation for mix shift benefits despite consumables strength.
A widely read weekly ratings roundup in mid-February noted Wells Fargo’s Overweight stance ahead of the prior report, expecting robust U.S. same-store sales and a slight EPS beat while acknowledging that guideposts tend to be conservative. That framework still resonates with current-quarter expectations: sustained comps in core categories, incremental digital leverage, and unchanged medium-term margin ambitions even if the initial guidance cadence remains measured. Bank of America reiterated its Buy view with an emphasis on “AI-driven structural growth, share gains in uncertainty, and margin expansion,” placing particular weight on the operating model’s ability to monetize data and traffic through retail media and more efficient fulfillment.
Taken together, the majority camp anticipates that Walmart Inc. can pair mid-single-digit revenue growth with double-digit EBIT growth through tight cost discipline, an improving digital mix, and incremental contribution from retail media. The Street’s constructive stance also rests on the premise that management’s investment posture—automation in distribution, technology to reduce friction, and data-driven merchandising—will continue to translate into tangible unit-cost reductions and stronger conversion across both stores and digital channels. With consensus now embedding revenue of 174.71 billion US dollars year over year growth of 5.29% and EPS of 0.66 year over year growth of 13.91%, the bullish case argues the setup remains balanced to favorable provided that commentary confirms continued eCommerce and advertising traction, stable inventory quality, and no deterioration in shrink or markdowns. For this quarter’s print, the majority expects the narrative to reinforce a glide path of steady growth and incremental margin improvement, with post-report share reaction most sensitive to guidance tone and the visibility management provides into the scalability of its higher-margin digital and media businesses.
