To The Moon

Elon Musk stated on Sunday that his rocket company, SpaceX (SPCX.US), could achieve revenue of $1 trillion by 2030. This comment came just two days after the company completed its IPO, reaching a market valuation exceeding $2 trillion. In a post on his social media platform X, replying to journalist and financial commentator Jon Ehrlichman, Musk wrote that he would be surprised if revenue does not surpass $1 trillion by 2031.

Last Friday, SpaceX solidified its position as the sixth-largest U.S. company, further entrenching Musk's status as the world's first trillionaire. However, the company's current earning power remains far behind that of other tech giants with comparable valuations, such as Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN.US). In 2025, SpaceX's revenue surged from $14.02 billion the prior year to $18.67 billion, but its financial performance swung from a $791 million profit to a net loss of $4.94 billion.

Wall Street Adopts a More Cautious Stance

Some Wall Street analysts are approaching the company's growth prospects with caution. Goldman Sachs previously projected SpaceX's 2030 revenue would exceed $470 billion, while Morgan Stanley estimated it could reach nearly $330 billion.

Acting as a lead underwriter for the IPO, Goldman Sachs presented an extremely aggressive forecast to potential investors during roadshows. The bank projected that SpaceX's AI business, including xAI, would see revenue skyrocket from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030. Total group revenue was forecast to grow from $18.7 billion to $474 billion, with Starlink contributing approximately $144 billion. This implies a need for 25-fold revenue growth over five years, representing a compound annual growth rate exceeding 90%.

Morgan Stanley's earlier prediction of nearly $330 billion in revenue by 2030, while far below Musk's target, still represents nearly an 18-fold increase from current levels. Morningstar offered a more conservative enterprise valuation of just $780 billion, less than half of SpaceX's market cap at its debut. The firm noted that the long-term outlook for the AI business faces dual challenges of intense competition and profit uncertainty.

From Cash Cow to Growth Engine

Within the grand narrative of trillion-dollar revenue, the Starlink satellite internet service carries significant expectations and has become SpaceX's most reliable financial pillar. In 2025, Starlink contributed $11.4 billion in revenue, accounting for 61% of the company's total. By Q1 2026, this proportion had climbed to nearly two-thirds, with quarterly revenue reaching $3.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA margins remaining high at 60%-70%.

As of April 2026, Starlink's global subscriber base surpassed 17 million, more than triple the 5 million at the end of 2024. Major airlines like United, Southwest, and Hawaiian have adopted its in-flight WiFi service, and the brand entered the Brand Finance Global 500 ranking for the first time.

Starlink's business model is uniquely attractive: once the satellite constellation is deployed, marginal service costs are extremely low, and subscription revenue is highly predictable. Musk has estimated that if Starlink captures 3%-5% of the global telecom market, annual revenue could reach $30 billion—ten times the historical peak of SpaceX's rocket launch business. The company plans to deploy next-generation V3 satellites using its Starship rocket by 2027, capable of launching 50 satellites per mission, improving constellation expansion efficiency by over sevenfold.

However, concerns exist. Starlink's global pricing varies dramatically: approximately $120 per month in the U.S., $41 in France, and just $24 in Zambia. As user growth tilts toward countries with lower GDP, average revenue per user (ARPU) could face sustained pressure. Data from 2025 showing 76% user growth but only 53% revenue growth already confirms this trend.

The Capital-Intensive Venture

In February 2026, SpaceX completed a merger with Musk's AI company, xAI, in a deal valued at approximately $250 billion. This integration was framed as a grand narrative of "space AI infrastructure"—utilizing Starlink's global satellite network for distributed AI computing, with xAI's Grok model and X platform data forming a closed loop.

The financial reality, however, is less optimistic. Of SpaceX's $4.94 billion net loss in 2025, AI infrastructure investment was a primary drag. Total capital expenditure for the year was $20.7 billion, with $12.7 billion flowing to the AI sector for GPU clusters, data centers, and engineering talent—far exceeding the $4.2 billion for Starlink and $3.8 billion for rocket operations. In Q1 2026, AI-related capital expenditure reached $7.7 billion, accounting for 76% of total spending.

Critics have described xAI as a "clinical cash-burning machine." SpaceX's holding of 18,700 Bitcoin, with a fair value of $1.29 billion, was prominently noted in its prospectus, hinting the company is hedging AI business uncertainty through diversified investment.

A Stark Comparison with Peers

Supporting a $2 trillion valuation, SpaceX's financials appear modest compared to traditional tech giants of similar scale. A comparison with Amazon and Broadcom reveals the vast valuation disparity.

At a similar valuation level, Amazon generated over $600 billion in revenue in 2025, 32 times SpaceX's $18.67 billion. This means Amazon generates the equivalent of SpaceX's entire annual revenue in just over ten days. Both Amazon and Broadcom deliver tens of billions in net profit to shareholders annually. In contrast, while SpaceX's 2025 revenue grew 33% from $14.02 billion to $18.67 billion, its net performance swung from a $791 million profit to a $4.94 billion loss.

SpaceX's massive losses stem not from unprofitable core operations but from staggering capital expenditures. In 2025, total capex hit $20.7 billion, with nearly 76% directed toward AI infrastructure. In Q1 2026, cash and equivalents plummeted from $24.7 billion to $15.9 billion in just three months, forcing the company to secure a $20 billion bridge loan in March.

The Core Investment Proposition

What supports SpaceX's lofty valuation is not current financial data but a narrative centered on a "future option" for humanity. Musk's "trillion-dollar revenue by 2031" target is a highly provocative goal that will compel the company to continually demonstrate its commercialization velocity in the coming years.

However, rational observers should be wary of the divergence between valuation and fundamentals. Over the next 24 months, the market will no longer be satisfied with stories alone but will scrutinize every data point with rigor: Can Starship achieve true full reusability? When will Starlink achieve sustained profitability? And when will the promised hundred-billion-dollar AI infrastructure orders materialize?

The only certainty is that the path to $1 trillion in revenue will not be as effortless as a Musk tweet might suggest.