On January 15, 2026, just hours before the launch event for the Alibaba Qwen App. A hands-on test revealed that within the dialog box of Alibaba's Qwen App, users can now directly order takeout, book flights, reserve hotels, find restaurants, and even handle government affairs. There are no complex redirects, no dizzying pop-up windows; with just a simple natural language instruction, the AI completes the entire process from intent recognition to placing the transaction.
Alibaba officially previewed this as "ushering in the era of getting things done." Yesterday, Alibaba formally announced that the Qwen App launch event will be held at 10:00 on January 15, to witness how AI will "usher in the era of getting things done."
This is not merely a marketing slogan but resembles a transformation, with an intensity comparable to when Steve Jobs pulled the first iPhone from his pocket. At this very moment, Google, OpenAI, and Amazon are fiercely competing for the same goal—AI-driven commerce (Agentic Commerce). This is a covert war aimed at capturing the next generation of the internet's "super gateway." As AI begins to manage human wallets, the fundamental logic of internet traffic, monetization, and even survival is undergoing a radical collapse and reconstruction. The "dimensionality reduction attack" on traffic gateways—from "guessing what you like" to "giving you what you want." Every generational shift in the e-commerce industry is, in essence, a change in the traffic gateway. In the PC era, the gateway was the search box (Baidu, Google); in the mobile era, it was the App icon (Taobao, WeChat). In the AI era, the gateway is collapsing into a simple dialog box. 1. The Demise of the Search Box A latest research report from Zheshang Securities points out that the integration of AI and e-commerce is at a critical juncture, transitioning from "discriminative recommendation" to "generative recommendation (GR)." Looking back, we grew accustomed to "people finding goods": typing keywords into a search box, then painstakingly sifting through a plethora of product listings. Or passively accepting "goods finding people": algorithms pushing items they think you might like based on your browsing history. But now, the Qwen App is redefining all of this. You no longer need to jump between multiple apps for price comparisons. You simply need to tell Qwen: "Book me the earliest flight to Beijing tomorrow," or "I want to eat the highest-rated light meal for takeout nearby." The AI will directly understand your intent, access backend data, and present the final solution—even a direct payment button—right in front of you.
2. Intent Equals Transaction This represents an incredibly formidable "dimensionality reduction attack." Once users become accustomed to this "what you think is what you get" mode of getting things done, the prominence of traditional shelf-based e-commerce, and even apps themselves, will be significantly diminished. A Morgan Stanley research report predicted that by 2030, Agentic e-commerce transaction volume will reach $385 billion, accounting for 20% of total US e-commerce. The subtext of this data is: in the future, one-fifth of spending will be done by AI on your behalf. Whoever masters this dialog box controls the "first mile" of the user's consumption decision-making process. From "Connection" to "Action"—Alibaba's Ecosystem Forcibly Integrated According to hands-on tests and analysis by Zheshang Securities, the ambition of the Qwen App lies in leveraging Alibaba Group's vast ecosystem resources.
Flash Delivery: Solves "ordering takeout with one sentence." Fliggy: Solves "booking hotels and flights with one sentence." Amap: Solves travel and finding restaurants. Taobao: Solves physical goods e-commerce purchases.
This integration is not merely simple API calls but a deep consolidation based on "Agents." Zheshang Securities' report indicates that Alibaba is using its group ecosystem to nurture the Qwen App gateway, with the Qwen Agent set to thoroughly打通 these high-frequency life scenarios. This means the Qwen App is no longer an isolated chatbot; it is the "central control console" for the entire Alibaba commercial empire. 2. The Confidence Behind the Qwen Model The Qwen large language model powering the Qwen App has already surpassed 600 million global downloads, with performance metrics even exceeding some indicators of GPT-5. This is a victory not just of computing power, but also of data. Unlike pure language models, Qwen is backed by Alibaba's years of accumulated e-commerce transaction data, logistics data, and local lifestyle data. This constitutes Alibaba's unique moat in the competitive landscape of AI for consumers. Looking at other competitors. For ByteDance's Doubao, although it has integrated Douyin Mall, there remains a gap in the depth of its supply chain for local services and complex service fulfillment. For OpenAI, while it possesses the strongest model, it lacks its own e-commerce and logistics infrastructure, forcing it to partner with companies like Etsy and Shopify to fill the gaps. Alibaba, however, has both top-tier models like Qwen3-Max and infrastructure like Taobao, Ele.me, and Amap, which not only possess massive data but also enable closed-loop transactions. As LatePost noted, Alibaba has created a C-end super gateway through "Qwen," a strategic decision by CEO Wu Yongming. The Ultimate Answer to Monetization—From "Selling Ads" to "Selling Services" AI commercialization has persistently challenged the industry. Relying solely on subscription fees (SaaS) can hardly cover the high computational costs. But once it切入 e-commerce, the business model instantly becomes clear. 1. The Business Closest to Money Analysis from China Merchants Securities and Zheshang Securities suggests that the narrative of AI is shifting from pure "dialogue" to "action." AI will directly integrate multi-channel information to provide users with final decision suggestions, or even place orders directly. When AI can directly place orders, its monetization path becomes extremely short and direct:
Commission model (CPS): The AI recommends and completes an order for takeout or a flight, directly taking a commission. Intent advertising: Brands no longer bid on keywords, but instead bid on user "intent." When a user asks "recommend a good facial cleanser," whichever product appears in the answer pays the fee.
The conversion rate of this model is far higher than traditional advertising. Data shows that customers using Amazon's AI assistant Rufus during shopping saw a 60% increase in purchase conversion rates. 2. The Industry Chain's Frenzy This feast does not belong solely to the platform. A report from Zheshang Securities mentions that as the Qwen App's MAU surpassed 100 million on January 14, 2026, the entire industry chain is becoming restless.
Agency operations and marketing: Service providers like SMZDM (which launched the "Aunt Zhang" AI App), Qingmu Technology, and Yiwang Yichuang are leveraging AI to重构 shopping guidance and operational processes. SaaS tools: Companies like Guangguyun Technology are embedding AI into customer service and order management systems, adapting to the new traffic distribution mechanisms.
This is reminiscent of the gold rush era; Alibaba is selling the shovels (infrastructure), while the surrounding service providers are sifting for gold dust. The Elephant in the Room—The Giants' "Race Against Time" Alibaba is not the only runner on this track. Global tech giants are engaged in a game of "musical chairs," where there is only one chair—the "AI super gateway." Look overseas: Google's Gemini is integrating all shopping processes, OpenAI is establishing e-commerce protocol standards (ACP), and Amazon is fiercely defending its moat with Rufus. Look domestically: Qwen App integrates takeout and travel, ByteDance's Doubao integrates Douyin Mall—the battle has already reached the specific transaction环节. 1. Amazon's Closed-Loop Defense Facing the impact of AI Agents, Amazon has chosen a "closed-source, self-developed" approach. Its Rufus shopping assistant, relying on self-developed Trainium and Inferentia chips to reduce costs, prevents traffic outflow through a closed ecosystem. In 2025, Rufus's monthly active users grew 140% year-over-year. Amazon has even resorted to legal measures, prohibiting external AIs (like Perplexity) from scraping its data, thereby building data barriers. 2. OpenAI and Google's Dimensionality Reduction Attack OpenAI has not been idle. Through its "shopping search" function and partnerships with Shopify and Etsy, OpenAI attempts to intercept traffic at the very front end of the decision-making chain. Data shows ChatGPT's monthly adoption rate is as high as 45%, far exceeding that of traditional retailers' self-developed AIs. 3. ByteDance Doubao's Breakthrough Attempt As Alibaba's old rival, ByteDance's "Doubao" is also making efforts. The Doubao mobile assistant attempts to enable cross-app operations through system-level services. However, in practical tests, Doubao frequently encountered "CAPTCHA" verifications or forced logouts when accessing Alibaba-affiliated apps like Taobao and Idle Fish. This Launch Event Could Be a Moment of Transformation Piecing these fragments together, the significance of the January 15, 2026 launch event transcends the product itself. For the market, now is not the time for doubt, but for identifying the giants and emerging players in the industry chain that can position themselves first in this "revolution of getting things done." Because, just like those who missed the mobile internet wave, missing the AI commerce wave might truly mean missing the next decade. Now, fasten your seatbelts; the AI "era of getting things done" is roaring towards us.
