Market Interpretation: On Tuesday, March 4th, gold experienced a significant sell-off, dropping 300 points. Why did gold fall sharply despite ongoing conflicts between the US and Iran and continued geopolitical tensions? The primary reason was a collective sharp decline in global stock markets, particularly a trading halt triggered in the South Korean index, which created a panic in the market and led to a liquidity crisis. Assets like gold and silver were sold off to raise margin funds for the stock market, a situation reminiscent of March 2020. Additionally, a sharp rise in oil prices raised inflation concerns, leading to a reduced probability of interest rate cuts, which scared away some safe-haven buying. However, this is likely a temporary phenomenon and should not disrupt the broader bullish trend for gold. Once stock markets stabilize and panic selling subsides, gold is expected to quickly regain its safe-haven status and resume its upward trajectory towards new highs.
Gold Technical Analysis: Gold had previously been rising in a step-like, consolidating pattern, not a strong unilateral uptrend. Tuesday saw a rapid and sharp decline, indicating significant downward pressure. The price briefly pierced the 10-day moving average, but support at the middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart remains effective. Judging by the candlestick formations, adjustments in this cycle have primarily consisted of single-day pullbacks, with declines often being one-step corrections. This retracement reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 5062, which is also close to the daily middle Bollinger Band. This level has a high probability of forming a short-term bottom, and signals of stabilization here should be closely watched. If this support holds, the market is likely to return to a slow, oscillating upward rhythm.
Hourly Chart Analysis: A sell-off occurred during Monday's evening session. During Tuesday's Asian session, the price rallied to test 5380 resistance before falling back, breaking below the key trend support at 5280. It subsequently broke through supports at 5200, 5092, and 5040, and briefly fell below the 5000 mark, hitting a low near 4995. Short-term rebounds still carry a risk of being bull traps, and a secondary decline cannot be ruled out. Key support below is focused near 5040, with further major support at the 5000 psychological level. The trading suggestion is to consider buying on dips within this support region. Immediate resistance above is seen at 5207 (the lower boundary of the gold channel, now acting as resistance), with further resistance at 5236. A strong break and sustained hold above this level could signal the end of the current bearish shakeout.
Silver Technical Analysis: Following a rapid expansion in volatility, silver exhibits strong short-term momentum, prone to sharp declines that are difficult to halt abruptly. Previous support was at the lower Bollinger Band near 80, which also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from 72 to 96. If the price only briefly breaks below this level and quickly recovers, it could be considered a false breakdown or shakeout. The key remains whether the price can reclaim the 80 level.
If the price finds support on a secondary decline, stages a recovery, re-enters the price channel, and stabilizes above 80, traders could consider going long at lower levels. If the downward momentum continues, support below can be watched in the 77-75 range. A long lower shadow candlestick forming in this area would likely confirm a阶段性低点 (stage low). Key overhead resistance lies at the middle Bollinger Band on the hourly chart, around 87.5. A break and hold above this level would shift the market bias from weak consolidation to stronger consolidation.
