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Tesla needs a perfect year. That won't be easy

CNN Business2021-04-28

London (CNN Business) - Tesla (TSLA) just posted record quarterly profits, with one measure of earnings passing the $1 billion mark for the first time.

But in order to justify its sky-high stock price, the automaker will need to overcome a growing list of challenges.

What's happening: A global chip shortage is snarling production, while the business environment in China, a crucial market, remains fraught. Competitors are gaining ground and Tesla faces a safety investigation tied to a fatal crash in Texas.

Shares were down 4.5% on Tuesday.

Some Wall Street analysts still see a solid case for Tesla's stock, which is trading at more than 1,100 times its earnings, according to data from Refinitiv.

"While the company is still far from the sort of scale to justify its stock price ... production has exploded, and the company expects further expansion with the 2021 completion of its Berlin and Texas factories," Bespoke Investment Group told clients.

But a closer look at the company's financial results show that a big reason the company had a strong start to the year is because of its sale of regulatory credits, which brought in $518 million in revenue, and bitcoin holdings.

Tesla invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin last quarter while the cryptocurrency was soaring. Zachary Kirkhorn, the automaker's "master of coin "(okay, chief financial officer), said the company later sold 10% of its position, resulting in a $101 million profit. That's nearly a quarter of the $438 million Tesla earned when results are adjusted for stricter accounting standards.

And while there's no denying that the company's car sales could continue to boom this year, there are, as ever, a long list of risks.

CEO Elon Musk, whose official title is now "Technoking," told investors Monday that the chip shortage was "a huge problem" for Tesla, and that it was battling "some of the most difficult supply chain challenges that we've ever experienced."

Musk said the company should be able to stick to its target for better than 50% growth in sales this year, which would take sales over the 750,000 mark.

To reach that target, the company needs to continue to see strong demand in China, the world's biggest market. But it faces potential issues there from both consumers and Beijing.

Last week, Tesla's booth at the Shanghai Auto Show was briefly besieged by protesters complaining about problems with its cars. The episode comes after Tesla was summoned by regulators in February to discuss the quality of its Shanghai-made vehicles. The following month, reports surfaced that the country's military had banned its vehicles from entering its complexes over concerns that cameras onboard could be used for spying.

Chinese authorities aren't the only ones putting Tesla under the microscope. The company is also working with US safety investigators after two passengers were killed in a crash of a Tesla Model S outside Houston.

These challenges come as Tesla faces increasingly fierce competition from upstart rivals like Rivian, as well as traditional automakers like Volkswagen and General Motors that are ramping up their electric vehicle offerings.

Tesla could still rise above the fray — and Bespoke Investment Group notes that the company's stock is often divorced from its financial performance anyways. But the path ahead for Tesla and its Technoking looks tricky.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Comment6

  • Flyingcat
    ·2021-04-28
    Definitely a challenging year ahead
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  • caculator
    ·2021-04-28
    Tesla must try to strike good profit. Dont let shareholder disappointed.ok.
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    • sgric
      how good is good ? they are earning more than estimates.
      2021-04-28
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  • Samuel.L
    ·2021-04-28
    Let’s go tesla
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    • Samuel.L
      Gogoog
      2021-04-28
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  • AceSpade
    ·2021-04-28
    Elon needs to speak more
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  • Jassss
    ·2021-04-28
    I’m on long. 
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  • sugizoi4u
    ·2021-04-28
    If any company can do it, it will be TSLA
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