① Independent analyst Ed Zitron recently stated that the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble is straightforward because it is essentially a bubble around the company OpenAI;
② He pointed out that OpenAI is the sole reason people are paying attention to AI—and its failure would trigger a crash similar to that caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
Cailian Press, July 17 (Editor Huang Junzhi) Independent analyst Ed Zitron recently stated that the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble is straightforward because it is essentially a bubble around the company OpenAI.
As ChatGPT developer OpenAI approaches a significant IPO, the researcher and AI skeptic said, OpenAI is the sole reason people are paying attention to AI—and its failure would trigger a crash similar to that caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
OpenAI secretly filed its IPO application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 8, 2026, officially initiating the listing process, with a target valuation of approximately $1 trillion. However, due to litigation and market competition, the official listing date remains uncertain, with an expected window from autumn 2026 to early 2027.
Zitron has repeatedly issued warnings about AI, particularly OpenAI. Last month, he released a report stating that OpenAI's financial situation is in disarray.
In his latest article published on July 15, he wrote, "ChatGPT was released in November 2022, arriving just in time for a tech industry starved of creativity. OpenAI's emergence provided justification for an era of frenzy and extravagance."
He also noted that OpenAI is the reason its biggest competitor, Anthropic, exists. This is partly because Anthropic's founders came from OpenAI and partly because it received funding from tech giants who, in their bid to secure a foothold in AI, supported OpenAI's primary rival.
Zitron believes the AI bubble exists solely due to the attention Sam Altman's company has garnered from the public, investors, and the ecosystem of companies thriving under its influence.
He wrote: "The only reason the AI bubble has lasted this long is that OpenAI hasn't collapsed. Its failure would be a watershed moment—akin to a Lehman Brothers for AI, marking the end of one era and the beginning of another."
However, Zitron also stated that he cannot predict how or when OpenAI might go bankrupt, but he believes it would be a watershed event that would upend the market built around AI transactions and the economy driven by companies' endless capital expenditures in pursuit of AI goals.
For example, if OpenAI stopped paying infrastructure companies like CoreWeave and Oracle, Zitron speculated these companies would be unable to service their own debts. If OpenAI's troubles worsen, it might eliminate the free version of ChatGPT and raise user fees, ultimately causing investors to lose confidence in investing in AI startups.
"I think once OpenAI collapses, it will deal a severe blow to the entire stock market, heralding a larger decline as everyone realizes the AI bubble has burst," he added.
Zitron concluded by emphasizing that the spending driving the AI bubble represents "the largest capital misallocation in history." Gary Marcus, a renowned AI researcher at New York University and founder of machine learning company Geometric Intelligence, previously used this exact phrase and has also expressed significant concerns about the AI bubble.
