On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release data showing how strong the U.S. economy was during the first quarter. It’s expected to be good—very good—with real gross domestic product growing at an annualized 5.6% clip. The real number is likely to be even higher, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tool forecasting an 8.3% rise based on incoming data.
Such strength brings concerns about peaking growth. Just two weeks ago in this space, we highlighted the surge in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey, which hit 64.7 in March. It was a great number, but also one that will have a hard time going higher. If the ISM really is peaking, it could set the stock market up for a short, but painful, decline, warns Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha.
Now Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider has a similar warning. He notes that the S&P 500 typically has returned 0.6% a month when growth was positive but slowing, half the monthly gain of 1.2% when it was positive and accelerating. And buying the market when the ISM is above 60—a level that usually coincides with peak growth—has led to a 1% decline during the month immediately following the peak and a gain of just 3% over the next 12 months. “[Equities] often struggle in the short term when a strong rate of economic growth first begins to slow,” Snider writes.
Not everyone agrees with that assessment. The market’s big worry, at the moment, is over when the Fed will raise interest rates. So a deceleration in the ISM, particularly in the prices-paid component, could be met with relief because it would mean the Fed wouldn’t have to raise rates to cool an overheating economy, says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “This environment is somewhat unique,” he says.
Still, if the U.S. is starting to decelerate, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets are likely to accelerate, particularly as they start to get Covid-19 under control. That means investors should consider buying economically sensitive stocks with international exposure. Goldman’s picks include gold miner Newmont (ticker: NEM), auto-parts maker BorgWarner (BWA), lithium provider Albemarle (ALB), and a basket of European stocks, including Ryanair Holdings (RYA.Ireland), Restaurant Group (RTN.UK), and H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.Sweden).
A little diversification never hurts.