To The Moon

Overnight, external markets were hit by a massive storm. The cryptocurrency market experienced a full-scale plunge, with Bitcoin plummeting over 5%, and Ethereum, Dogecoin, and others each falling more than 6%. According to CoinGlass data, a total of 227,939 people were liquidated globally in the past 24 hours. Some analysis points out that market capital is rapidly withdrawing from the cryptocurrency market, with one crypto company stating it plans to allocate 10% to 15% of its portfolio to physical gold. Simultaneously, the precious metals market also witnessed intense volatility; after hitting record highs, both gold and silver sharply reversed course, with intraday maximum declines exceeding 5% and 8% respectively, before their losses narrowed rapidly. Furthermore, metals on the London Metal Exchange all retreated from their highs, with copper's gains narrowing to 3.05% after previously rising 11%, and tin falling 1.35% after having gained over 5%. US stocks also faced a perilous moment, with the Nasdaq index plunging as much as 2.6% intraday before ultimately paring losses to close down 0.72%. A Full-Blown Plunge In the early hours of January 30, Beijing time, the cryptocurrency market faced a fierce sell-off. As of 06:30, Bitcoin had crashed over 5%, breaking below the $85,000 level to trade at $84,425 per coin. Ethereum, SOL, and Dogecoin plummeted over 6%, Cardano fell nearly 7%, FIL dropped over 7%, and XRP declined almost 6%. According to CoinGlass statistics, over the past 24 hours, a total of 227,939 traders globally were liquidated, with total liquidation amounts reaching $1.014 billion (approximately 7.05 billion yuan). Affected by this, US-listed cryptocurrency-related stocks suffered heavy losses across the board. By the close, Strategy's stock price plunged over 9%, Bitfarms fell more than 5%, Coinbase Global and MARA Holdings both dropped over 4%, Riot Platforms declined more than 3%, and Bit Digital fell over 2%. On the news front, earlier in the day, the CEO of crypto company Tether indicated plans to allocate 10% to 15% of its portfolio to physical gold. The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust, rose to near a four-year high. Geopolitical uncertainties further intensified. On Wednesday, reports emerged that US President Trump "is considering a new major strike against Iran." In response, Iran's First Vice President, Aref, stated that the current administration has maintained a state of combat readiness since taking office. Iran will not initiate war, but if war is provoked, it will defend itself resolutely, and "the outcome of the war will not be decided by the enemy." Analysis suggests that cryptocurrencies are less attractive than gold as a safe-haven asset and inferior to AI in terms of risk appetite, leading to a declining appeal for capital in the current market phase. With Bitcoin's price stagnating and trading volume weak, long-term believers are shifting towards precious metals and stock markets. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin holders have entered a phase of realizing losses, the first such occurrence since 2023. Even without a crash in spot prices, more investors are cutting losses and exiting, indicating waning conviction. According to Bloomberg data, investors withdrew over $1.3 billion from Bitcoin-related funds in the past week, continuing the trend of outflows from cryptocurrency ETFs. The recent significant underperformance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies compared to the price trends of gold and silver has also raised doubts about Bitcoin's status as a macro hedge. Even as global tensions escalate, this asset often described as digital gold remains stagnant. Professor Cam Harvey of Duke University previously stated that Bitcoin is unlikely to replace gold as investors' preferred safe-haven asset. Analysts from Citigroup and crypto firm Tagus Capital also noted that Bitcoin's function as an inflation hedge is, at best, sporadic and influenced more by liquidity, risk appetite, and tech stock flows than by any enduring connection to a weak US dollar or geopolitical pressure. Gold, Silver, and US Stocks Experience Major Shocks Simultaneously, the overnight US stock market and precious metals market also experienced historic levels of volatility. During the New York trading session on January 29, precious metals prices rapidly reversed, with the spot gold price briefly plunging over $400 before recovering nearly half of its losses. The spot gold price had initially surged to the $5,600 per ounce level during the day but began a sharp decline starting around 23:00 Beijing time, falling from around $5,530 per ounce to $5,105.83 per ounce, representing an intraday maximum drop of 5.7%, before quickly rebounding to ultimately close down 0.69% at $5,377.4 per ounce. At the same time, the spot silver price also retreated from its historical high of $121.67 per ounce to $106.80 per ounce, an intraday maximum decline of 8.5%, before similarly rebounding swiftly to close down 0.64% at $115.87 per ounce. Some analysis attributes the sharp reversal in gold and silver prices to investors taking profits after prices repeatedly刷新ed new highs. David Meger, Metal Trading Director at High Ridge Futures, commented, "We've seen a wave of intense selling after precious metals recently hit new all-time highs." The overnight US stock market also witnessed a dramatic scene. The Nasdaq index plunged as much as 2.6% intraday, and the S&P 500 index fell up to 1.5%, before paring losses significantly. At the close, the S&P 500 was down 0.13%, the Nasdaq fell 0.72%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11%. Among individual stocks, Microsoft saw its shares plummet over 12% intraday, closing down 9.99%. The previous trading day, Microsoft's earnings report revealed that its cloud business growth slowed from 40% to 39%, and its gross margin was about 68%, the lowest in three years. Microsoft's plunge heavily impacted the software sector. ServiceNow, despite reporting quarterly profit and revenue that beat expectations, crashed 9.94%. Salesforce fell 6.09%, Oracle declined 2.19%, and German software provider SAP plummeted 15.2%. Rob Williams, Chief Investment Strategist at Sage Advisory, noted that the market is now posing more questions about AI, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to sustain positive news flow. Unless tech giants report "explosive" earnings, they will find it harder to boost market sentiment. Meta, which reported earnings alongside Microsoft, rose 10.4%. The company stated it expects capital expenditures to reach up to $135 billion in 2026, nearly double last year's level. Other major tech stocks were mixed. Nvidia gained 0.52%, marking its third consecutive day of gains; Google rose 0.71%, closing at a record high; Apple increased 0.72%, while Amazon fell 0.53%, Broadcom declined 0.75%, and Tesla dropped 3.23%. After the US market closed on Thursday, Apple reported quarterly revenue that exceeded expectations. Its stock surged over 3% in after-hours trading before paring gains to around 0.7%. The earnings report showed Apple's fiscal first-quarter revenue was $143.76 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, beating market estimates of $138.4 billion. First-quarter earnings per share were $2.84, also above the market consensus of $2.68.