A highly anticipated "lockup test" that had drawn market attention did not materialize into a selling spree. After the release of SpaceX's first tranche of restricted shares, the stock price instead rose consecutively and received a boost from Cathie Wood's ARK Invest.
SpaceX shares rebounded after a July pullback. On Monday, SpaceX stock rose 4.2% to close at $138.74, reclaiming the $135 IPO price for the first time in nearly a month.
Previously, SpaceX (SPCX.O) fell below its IPO price on July 15 and further dipped to a low of $104.83 in early August. With the sustained rebound since early August, SpaceX shares have gained over 25%, with a surge of approximately 26% over the past three trading days, recovering some of the losses from the July decline.
This rebound occurred following the expiration of the company's first lockup period. On August 6, approximately 911.5 million SpaceX shares were unlocked, allowing internal employees and early investors to sell their stakes.
The market had previously feared that the influx of new tradable shares could trigger a concentrated sell-off, weighing on the stock price. However, the actual situation did not unfold as the market had feared. After the lockup expiration, SpaceX's stock price continued to rise, indicating that insiders and early investors were not engaging in a massive cash-out.
Nicolas Owens, a Morningstar equity analyst, stated that investors focusing on the end of a lockup period does not necessarily mean all tradable shares will be sold immediately.
"The roughly 900 million shares that were unlocked haven't necessarily all been sold, and many investors had already viewed the end of the lockup period as a potential buying opportunity," he said.
He noted that SpaceX remains a stock with relatively few shares outstanding, and the addition of new tradable shares has not altered its low float characteristics. Meanwhile, some index funds have become buyers after adjusting for the free-float market capitalization, as funds need to rebalance their portfolios based on float weightings.
Market participants believe that the supply pressure from this lockup expiration had already been fully anticipated by investors, and the actual selling pressure was far lower than market concerns.
Shay Baloor, chief market strategist at Futurum Equities, said the market didn't suddenly stop focusing on insider selling but rather realized that what was previously considered the biggest supply risk hadn't had a significant impact.
"The market is realizing that this widely known supply event didn't cause the disruption that was previously expected," Baloor said.
Earnings Pressure Eases, Institutions Reassess SpaceX’s Growth Narrative
SpaceX's stock had previously been under pressure, partly due to concerns about AI capital expenditures following its quarterly earnings report. Investors worried that the company would need to continuously invest heavily in building AI-related infrastructure, potentially impacting short-term profitability.
However, as the market digested this factor, SpaceX's stock price began to rebound. Investment firm Argus upgraded its rating on the company after its quarterly earnings release, which also became a significant catalyst for the stock's rise.
Additionally, changes in retail trading behavior emerged. Data shows that individual investors who actively participated in the SpaceX IPO and continued to buy shares post-listing began to reduce some of their holdings during last Friday's sharp price surge.
Jai Malhi, senior equity strategist at Vanda Research, stated that retail investors typically exhibit contrarian trading characteristics, so it's not uncommon to see net selling on days of rapid price increases.
"The net selling by retail investors on Friday may just be some investors locking in gains or engaging in short-term capital rotation. One day of net selling is not enough to conclude that retail investors are fully exiting," Malhi said.
Meanwhile, some institutional investors are increasing their allocation to SpaceX. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest purchased 114,800 SpaceX shares last Friday, valued at approximately $15.28 million based on that day's closing price.
SpaceX has now become a significant holding in the ARK Innovation ETF, accounting for about 5.87% of the fund's assets, making it the second-largest holding.
Starlink Business Progress, Musk Emphasizes Long-Term Revenue Potential
Beyond capital market factors, SpaceX's recent business developments are also drawing attention.
The company completed its 93rd Falcon series rocket launch of 2026 over the weekend, including Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy missions. On Saturday, SpaceX deployed another 24 Starlink satellites via a Falcon 9 rocket and plans to continue with subsequent launch missions.
Elon Musk has recently reiterated the commercial potential of the next-generation Starlink satellite system. He stated that the bandwidth capacity of the Starlink V3 system could be 100 times that of the V2 system.
Musk said that Starlink V2 is expected to achieve $20 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) this year. He added that even if revenue per GB drops tenfold, SpaceX's communications business revenue could still exceed $200 billion.
During a previous earnings call, Musk also stated that the company's goal is to achieve a $1 trillion revenue scale by around 2029 to 2030.
However, SpaceX's current stock price remains significantly below its post-listing highs. The stock is still down about 38.5% from its intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, which was also the highest price reached after the IPO.
Currently, market focus is shifting from the short-term supply pressure of the first lockup expiration to SpaceX's future business growth, Starlink's commercialization capabilities, and long-term capital expenditure returns. Subsequent lockup periods will still expire, and the addition of new shares could continue to impact short-term stock price volatility.
