Broadcom ($AVGO$) is set to announce its third-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2025 on September 4, 2025, after the market closes. According to consensus estimates by Bloomberg, the company’s revenue for this quarter is expected to reach $15.827 billion, marking a 21.07% year-over-year increase; adjusted earnings per share are projected to be $1.67, a growth of 34%.
Earlier company guidance indicated that third-quarter revenue would be approximately $15.8 billion, with a year-over-year growth of around 21% and an EBITDA margin expected to maintain at least 66%. In its AI segment, Broadcom ($600455$) anticipates that AI semiconductor revenue for the quarter will attain $5.1 billion, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth.
Last Quarter Review
Broadcom's second-quarter revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $15 billion, growing 20% and slightly exceeding expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $1.58, an increase of 43.6%; net income came in at $7.787 billion, growing 44%. EBITDA was $10.001 billion, accounting for 66.7% of revenue, and reflecting a year-over-year growth of 34.6%. Revenue from data center and networking semiconductor businesses amounted to $8.41 billion, a growth of 16.7%.
AI chip revenue grew 46% year-over-year, reaching $4.4 billion, though the growth rate slowed from a previous 77%. CEO Hock Tan stated that record-breaking revenues were primarily driven by semiconductor solutions and the cloud computing company VMware’s businesses.
This Quarter’s Highlights
1. Sustained High Growth in Custom AI Accelerator (XPU) Business
Leveraging leading customers like Google ($GOOG$) and its TPUv6p, steady increases in custom XPU shipments are projected, with AI revenue expected to grow approximately 60% year-over-year in fiscal 2025. Investors focus on TPUv6p shipment trends and order conversion, especially whether unit prices can consistently rise. The high computing power and energy efficiency advantages of custom XPU support large-scale data center applications.
2. Strong Demand for Ethernet Switch Chips Driving Network Business Growth
The new generation of switch chips like Tomahawk 6 has commenced shipment, supporting switch capability of 102.4Tbps, enhancing data center network throughput and energy efficiency. 1.6T optical module upgrades boost cluster scalability and cost-effectiveness, consolidating leadership in high-end switch/router market. Key focus on product delivery pace and customer acceptance.
3. VMware Integration Bringing Stable Cash Flow and Software Business Synergy
Acquiring VMware enhances the software business segment, with VMware revenue reaching $6.6 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, improving gross margins and strengthening renewal rates and cross-selling. Subscription-based business increases cash flow visibility and reduces risk of performance fluctuations. Focus on renewal pace, subscription migration, and enterprise-level AI and cloud infrastructure innovation.
4. Steady Financial Performance, Increased Shareholder Returns
Double-digit growth in second-quarter revenue and profit, with an EBITDA margin exceeding 66% and record high free cash flow. The company continues to increase dividend returns. The third quarter will test the sustainability of growth momentum in the macroeconomic uncertain environment.
5. Impact of Advanced Process and Packaging Technology on Capacity
Challenges in yield and capacity pace arise from 2nm processes and 3.5D packaging technology, affecting chip shipment speeds and profit margins due to supply chain stability and production line utilization. Investors should pay attention to management's risk control.
6. Short-term Volatility from Market Competition and Customer Project Pace
Income and gross margin fluctuations may result from generational product transition and customer-side product iteration, with single large customer order pace significantly impacting short-term performance. Attention to management strategy and guidance is crucial.
Analyst Opinions
UBS ($UBS$): Maintains Buy, target price $345. Optimistic about the Google ($GOOGL$) TPUv6p shipment trend and long-term market potential of custom chips.
JPMorgan ($JPM$): Maintains Overweight, target price $325. Expects AI demand to drive XPU and high-performance network growth, with VMware sustaining growth momentum.
HSBC ($HSBC$): Upgraded rating to Buy, target price $400. ASIC momentum exceeds expectations, and AI chip quantity and price structure improve.
BofA Securities: Maintains Buy, target price $300. Emphasizes potential for increased cash flow and dividends.
Mizuho Securities: Maintains Buy, target price $315. Confident in AI networks and VMware's dual-engine certainty.
Summary
Broadcom exhibits robust growth resilience through dual-drive support from custom AI accelerators and high-speed Ethernet chips, along with stable cash flow from VMware software businesses. The market is generally optimistic about its third-quarter performance and future guidance, believing smooth hardware order deliveries and stable software renewals will drive sustained growth. Investors should watch the September 4 earnings report and management guidance to evaluate the company's long-term growth potential.
This content is based on tiger AI and Bloomberg data and is for reference only.