Orient Securities has issued a research report forecasting Ascletis Pharma-B's (01672) earnings per share for 2025-2027 to be -0.32, -0.35, and -0.38 yuan, respectively. Using an absolute valuation of the company's free cash flow, the firm predicts a reasonable market capitalization of HK$18.366 billion (calculated at an exchange rate of 1:1.1001), corresponding to a target price of HK$18.38, and has initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating. The main points from Orient Securities are as follows:
The weight-loss market holds significant room for growth, with three key directions offering breakthroughs. The prevalence of overweight or obesity is rising rapidly and is expected to affect nearly 3 billion people globally by 2030. Current weight-loss drugs are primarily GLP-1 receptor agonists, which face challenges such as low clinical utilization rates, poor patient adherence, significant weight rebound after discontinuation, and loss of lean body mass. Real-world study results suggest that GLP-1 drugs with better accessibility, improved safety, greater convenience, and longer dosing intervals could enhance utilization and adherence. Specifically, oral formulations, ultra-long-acting agents, and drugs that reduce fat while preserving muscle mass are seen as promising directions for advancement.
ASC30 possesses significant competitive advantages and strong business development (BD) potential. Oral small-molecule GLP-1 drugs offer multiple advantages over peptides. Eli Lilly's Orforglipron (Orfor) is currently the only oral small molecule to have succeeded in Phase III clinical trials. Among the oral small molecules in development, Ascletis's ASC30 is in the global second tier in terms of progress. It demonstrates stronger agonist activity and higher in vivo exposure than Orfor, with its U.S. Phase I and Phase II weight-loss data being best-in-class and showing outstanding safety advantages. Recently, BD transactions for oral small molecules have been active. Following Orfor's less-than-expected Phase III weight-loss results, the potential for efficacy improvement has increased, marginally boosting demand from multinational corporations. The report suggests that ASC30's superior weight-loss data, favorable safety profile, and granted U.S. patent for its molecule indicate substantial BD potential. Furthermore, the subcutaneous injection formulation of ASC30, developed using Ascletis's Ultra-Long-Acting Platform (ULAP) for weight loss and maintenance therapy, exhibits apparent half-lives of 46 days and 75 days, respectively, far exceeding other ultra-long-acting GLP-1 drugs while maintaining a safety advantage.
ASC47 reduces fat while preserving muscle, with new pipelines completing the weight-loss portfolio. In the fat-reduction/muscle-preservation pipeline, Eli Lilly's Bimagrumab (Bima) is the most advanced, while ASC47 is the only THRβ agonist. Phase II clinical results show that combining Bima with semaglutide enhances weight loss compared to semaglutide alone and significantly reduces lean body mass loss, but it is associated with safety concerns such as muscle cramps. In Phase I trials, combining ASC47 with semaglutide significantly improved weight loss compared to semaglutide monotherapy, resulted in a lower incidence of gastrointestinal adverse reactions, and improved blood lipids, positioning it as a potentially safer option for reducing fat and preserving muscle. Additionally, since October 2025, the company has intensively advanced four new pipelines into clinical stages, including an oral triple-target peptide, a once-monthly subcutaneous dual-target agonist, an amylin receptor agonist, and a fixed-dose combination of the latter two, thereby covering mainstream targets. The company's new molecules demonstrated superior weight-loss effects compared to leading global pipelines in preclinical studies, alongside distinct advantages in administration route or frequency. Preliminary clinical data from these programs is expected by the end of 2026.
Risk warnings include potential delays in pipeline research and development progress, unsuccessful authorization deals, postponed product launches, intensified product competition, underperformance in product sales, and a decline in the company's medium to long-term profitability.
