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Upstart Stock Soars after Q4 Earnings Beat, Strong Guidance, Stock Buyback

Seeking Alpha2022-02-16

Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) stock surges 24% in after-hours trading after the AI lending software company announced a $400M stock buyback program, issued strong Q1 guidance, and posted better-than-expected Q4 results.

"With triple-digit growth and record profits, Q4 was an exceptional finish to a breakout year for Upstart (UPST)," said co-founder and CEO David Girouard. He also said "auto loan originations on our platform are now ramping quickly and will provide growth opportunities to Upstart for years to come."

The lending software company issued Q1 revenue guidance of $295M-$305M vs. consensus of $258.3M. The company expects Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $56M-$58M compared with $50.6M Visible Alpha consensus, and Q1 adjusted net income of $50M-$52M vs. $87M reported in Q4 2021.

It also sees contribution margin of ~46% in Q1 vs. 45.9% Visible Alpha consensus.

Q4 revenue of $305M compared with average analyst estimate of $262.9M; increased from $228M in Q3 and $86.7M in the year-ago quarter; total fee revenue of $287M rose from $210M in Q3 and $84.4M a year ago.

Q4 adjusted EPS rose to $0.89, beating the $0.51 consensus, from $0.60 in Q3 and $0.07 in Q4 2020.

During the quarter, UPST's bank partners originated 495,205 loans, totaling $4.1B across its platform and compared with 362,780 loans totaling $3.13B in Q3 2021.

Conversion on rate requests were 24% vs. 23% in Q3.

Conference call at 4:30 PM ET.

Earlier, Upstart (UPST) non-GAAP EPS of $0.89 beats by $0.38, revenue of $304.85M beats by $42M

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Comment19

  • tigertitus
    ·2022-02-16
    Is this a time to sell or hold?
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  • Asphen
    ·2022-02-16
    Missed this one. Had wanted to sell put on it. 
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  • Jess261
    ·2022-02-16
    Okay
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  • SCLIEW
    ·2022-02-16
    666
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  • BoonHuat
    ·2022-02-16
    Nice.
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  • Blokk
    ·2022-02-16
    Nice!
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  • tyruksksk
    ·2022-02-16
    Congraz for the stock holders
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  • Barbarazhao
    ·2022-02-16
    Glad to do well
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  • Hippo Tan
    ·2022-02-16
    Wow
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  • Luckydiva
    ·2022-02-16
    This is the day I have been waiting for !! My conviction in this stock has been vindicated !!To hell with the short sellers on Upstart !! You are now scrambling to cover your shorts ! I I love to send you a box of Red satin shorts !! 
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  • skylander
    ·2022-02-16
    Like pls
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  • RichyRick
    ·2022-02-16
    Good to know
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  • 不怕死
    ·2022-02-16
    👍👍👍
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  • Gunners80
    ·2022-02-16
    Surprisingly 
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  • Siang2020
    ·2022-02-16
    Good
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  • Tj23
    ·2022-02-16
    Wow
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  • Will.I.AM
    ·2022-02-16
    Nice 👍🏻 
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  • xiaobaii
    ·2022-02-16
    like & comment please 
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  • shhshhh
    ·2022-02-16
    wow
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