Escalating conflict in the Middle East continued to drive oil futures higher midday Thursday, with disruptions centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit point for roughly one-fifth of global oil flows.
As of 11:35 a.m. ET, the May ICE Brent crude contract was trading $9.26 higher at $101.24/bbl, with June up $7.61 at $96.96/bbl. The April West Texas Intermediate contract rose $9.40 to $96.65/bbl, with May up $8.63 at $94.70/bbl.
Refined product futures were also trading higher, with the April RBOB contract up 14.41cts at $2.9324/gal and the May contract up 13.31cts at $2.8886/gal. The April ULSD contract was trading 25.26cts higher at $3.9314/gal, with May up 20.99cts at $3.6622/gal.
The International Energy Agency said Thursday the war has created the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with crude and product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz down more than 90% from around 20 million b/d before the conflict. Gulf producers have curtailed output by at least 10 million b/d as tanker traffic and export routes remain heavily constrained.
The IEA said global oil supply is projected to fall by about 8 million b/d in March as the conflict restricts flows from the region, with production losses in the Middle East only partly offset by higher output from non-OPEC+ producers. The agency sharply reduced its outlook for supply growth this year, and is now expecting global production to increase by about 1.1 million b/d, down from a previous forecast of 2.4 million b/d, with all growth expected to come from outside the OPEC+ alliance.
In response to the disruption, IEA member countries agreed Wednesday to release 400 million bbl from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated stock draw in history. The agency described the move as a "significant and welcome buffer" for the market but said that the release is a temporary measure and that restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be key to stabilizing supply flows.
Citigroup analysts said the conflict has kept oil markets highly volatile as attacks on ships and energy infrastructure continue and significant volumes of regional output remain shut in. Citi said its baseline expectation is that the conflict ultimately de-escalates once U.S. and Israeli military objectives are reached, though the bank cautioned that the risk of attacks on regional energy infrastructure remains elevated and could trigger much larger supply shocks.
This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
--Reporting by Allegra Fradkin, afradkin@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 12, 2026 12:26 ET (16:26 GMT)
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