The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0622 GMT - A rate hike by the European Central Bank is a risk, but June is a more likely checkpoint if the conflict in the Middle East continues, SEB's Jussi Hiljanen says in a note. The chief rates strategist expects risks to remain skewed towards some further increase in markets' ECB policy‑rate expectations, which would push the short end of the German government bond yield curve even higher. "However, for an April hike to materialize, energy prices would likely need to stay near current levels (or higher), market‑based inflation expectations increase further and the consumer inflation expectations survey in late-April show a clear uptick," he says. SEB expects the two-year German Schatz yield to rise to around 2.70%-2.80% over the coming three months from Thursday's close at 2.585%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0621 GMT - A further increase in market expectations of European Central Bank rate hikes in the coming weeks would only partially spill over into longer tenors, resulting in a continued flattening of the German government bond yield curve, SEB's Jussi Hiljanen says in a note. "A downside in long‑end yields should emerge once inflation repricing has been nearly completed, with market focus shifting to longer‑term growth and monetary‑policy implications," the chief rates strategist says. At this point, that vantage point has not yet been reached, he says. The 10-year German Bund yield will likely be trading in the 3.00-3.20% range, before potentially turning lower once negative growth implications become a dominant driver, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0603 GMT - Singapore's consumer-price index likely rose 1.2% on year in February, compared with January's 1.4% increase, according to the median estimate of five economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Headline inflation likely eased due to a pullback in accommodation price increases and stable private transport inflation, DBS's economics team writes in a report. Core CPI, which excludes private road transport and accommodation, likely rose 1.3%, up from the 1.0% increase in January, according to the poll. The pick-up in core inflation was driven by low base effects and the Lunar New Year season which have pushed up food prices, DBS says. The CPI data are due Monday.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0539 GMT - The Indian rupee and most other Asian currencies weaken against the dollar amid worries over economic growth in the region. "Economies of India, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are vulnerable to higher global oil prices while the fiscal balances in Indonesia and Malaysia could see some deterioration," three economists of OCBC Group Research say in a note. However, "authorities across the region are stepping up policy actions to mitigate and manage the risks from higher global oil prices but also supply shortages of key energy input," they add. The dollar is 0.3% higher at 93.1950 rupees after touching record high 93.37 rupees on Thursday, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 20, 2026 02:22 ET (06:22 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
